WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing historical global

  1. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Tom

    2011-10-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1 m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1 m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1 m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1 m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  2. Assessing historical global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefohn, A.S. [A.S.L. and Associates, Helena, MT (United States); Husar, J.D.; Husar, R.B. [Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States). Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis; Brimblecombe, P. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    1996-07-19

    Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from energy-producing and metal production activities have become an important factor in better understanding the relationship between humans and the environment. Concerns about (1) acid rain effects on the environment and (2) anthropogenic aerosols affecting possible global change have prompted interest in the transformation and fate of sulfur in the environment. One step in assessing the importance of sulfur emissions is the development of a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time. The objective of this research effort was to create a homogeneous database for historical sulfur emission estimates for the world. The time from 1850--1990 was selected to include the period of industrialization form the time the main production of fuels and minerals began until the most recent year for which complete production data exist. This research effort attempts to correct some of the deficiencies associated with previous global sulfur emission estimates by (1) identifying those production activities that resulted in sulfur emissions by country and (2) calculating historical emission trends by country across years. An important component of this study was the comparison of the sulfur emission results with those of previous studies.

  3. HISTORICAL PROCESS AND GLOBALIZATION METHODOLOGICAL

    OpenAIRE

    Musayelyan, Lyeva

    2013-01-01

    Globalization is one of the most popular concept, but it still is indistinct. There are a lot of related publications, but most of them eliminate the problem of correlation between historical process and globalization. In this paper we make an attempt to bring to light such a correlation and point out its anthropological aspects. In the first paper we gave consideration to the correlation between «color revolutions», democratization of society and historical process and its objective laws. Mo...

  4. Accuracy assessment of global historical cropland datasets based on regional reconstructed historical data——A case study in Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Historical cropland datasets are fundamental for quantifying the effects of human land use activities on climatic change and the carbon cycle. Two representative global land-use datasets, the Global Land Use Database (termed SAGE dataset) and the Historical Database of the Global Environment (termed HYDE dataset) have been established and used widely. Despite improvement of data quality and methodologies for extracting historical land use information, certain dataset limitations exist that need to be quantified and communicated to users so that they can make informed decisions on whether and how these land-use products should be used. The Cropland data of Northeast China (CNEC) is based on calibrated historical data and a multi-sourced data conversion model, and reconstructs cropland cover change in Northeast China over the last 300 years. Us- ing the CNEC as a reference, we evaluated the accuracy of cropland cover for SAGE and HYDE in Northeast China at spatial scales ranging from the entire Northeast China to provinces and even individual raster grid cells. Neither SAGE nor HYDE reflects real historical land reclamation. Cropland areas in SAGE are overestimated by 20.98 times in 1700 to 1.6 times in 1990. Although HYDE is better, there are significant disagreements in cropland area and distribution between HYDE and CNEC, especially in the 18th and 19th centuries. The proportion of total grid cells whose relative error was greater than 100% was 63.55% in 1700 and 53.27% in 1780. Global cropland dataset errors over Northeast China originate mainly from both the reverse calculation method for historical cropland data based on modern spatial patterns, and modern land-use outputs from satellite data.

  5. Development of a global historic monthly mean precipitation dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Su; Xu, Wenhui; Xu, Yan; Li, Qingxiang

    2016-04-01

    Global historic precipitation dataset is the base for climate and water cycle research. There have been several global historic land surface precipitation datasets developed by international data centers such as the US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), European Climate Assessment & Dataset project team, Met Office, etc., but so far there are no such datasets developed by any research institute in China. In addition, each dataset has its own focus of study region, and the existing global precipitation datasets only contain sparse observational stations over China, which may result in uncertainties in East Asian precipitation studies. In order to take into account comprehensive historic information, users might need to employ two or more datasets. However, the non-uniform data formats, data units, station IDs, and so on add extra difficulties for users to exploit these datasets. For this reason, a complete historic precipitation dataset that takes advantages of various datasets has been developed and produced in the National Meteorological Information Center of China. Precipitation observations from 12 sources are aggregated, and the data formats, data units, and station IDs are unified. Duplicated stations with the same ID are identified, with duplicated observations removed. Consistency test, correlation coefficient test, significance t-test at the 95% confidence level, and significance F-test at the 95% confidence level are conducted first to ensure the data reliability. Only those datasets that satisfy all the above four criteria are integrated to produce the China Meteorological Administration global precipitation (CGP) historic precipitation dataset version 1.0. It contains observations at 31 thousand stations with 1.87 × 107 data records, among which 4152 time series of precipitation are longer than 100 yr. This dataset plays a critical role in climate research due to its advantages in large data volume and high density of station network, compared to

  6. A Historical Perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick Højrup; Christensen, Per

    2013-01-01

    The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical...... development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP100), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies...

  7. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  8. Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset integrates daily climate observations from approximately 30 different data sources. Version 3...

  9. Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly (GHCN-M), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Since the early 1990s the Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly (GHCN-M) dataset has been an internationally recognized source of data for the study of...

  10. Debating Globalization in Social Studies Education: Approaching Globalization Historically and Discursively

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agbaria, Ayman K.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore the dominant positions in the debates on globalization in American social studies education. Specifically, the paper illustrates that, first, globalization is conceived of as more of an unprecedented new age and less of a historical development. Second, it is conceived of as more of a natural process and…

  11. Debating the Responsibility of Capitalism in Historical and Global Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Geoffrey G. Jones

    2014-01-01

    This working paper examines the evolution of concepts of the responsibility of business in a historical and global perspective. It shows that from the nineteenth century American, European, Japanese, Indian and other business leaders discussed the responsibilities of business beyond making profits, although until recently such views have not been mainstream. There was also a wide variation concerning the nature of this responsibility. This paper argues that four factors drove such beliefs; sp...

  12. Prolegomena of Human Rights. Historical Roots and Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Ana-Alina Dumitrache-Ionescu

    2015-01-01

    The paper Prolegomena of Human Rights. Historical Roots and Globalization analyses the complexity of the history of human rights which revolve around an incessant struggle for the awareness of the value of the human being. It is the history which defends the man, the human being, regarded individually or collectively, who was subjected in the course of time to some atrocities and abuses, confronting itself with exploitation, discrimination, oppression, slavery, torture and even ex...

  13. Prolegomena of Human Rights. Historical Roots and Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Alina Dumitrache-Ionescu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper Prolegomena of Human Rights. Historical Roots and Globalization analyses the complexity of the history of human rights which revolve around an incessant struggle for the awareness of the value of the human being. It is the history which defends the man, the human being, regarded individually or collectively, who was subjected in the course of time to some atrocities and abuses, confronting itself with exploitation, discrimination, oppression, slavery, torture and even extermination. Moreover, the historical evolution of human rights knows halting places in which the concepts of human rights are accompanied by ambiguity, by different meanings for different people and vary in accordance with the context. By way of resemblance, the problem of human rights in the context of globalization which transforms human rights into rights of the global citizen, rights which acquire new dimensions and significances imposed by the economic, politic and social changes specific of globalization is approached in this paper. The global vision of the new human rights involves both the opportunity to have a say when they are infringed for example, when they are subjected to torture or terror, and where human rights abuses are carried out by the people, for example, trafficking in human beings. (Ritzer, & Dean, 2015, p. 115

  14. Drought - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackner, S.; Barnwal, P.; von der Goltz, J.

    2013-12-01

    We investigate the lasting effects of early childhood exposure to drought on economic and health outcomes in a large multi-country dataset. By pooling all Demographic and Health Survey rounds for which household geocodes are available, we obtain an individual-level dataset covering 47 developing countries. Among other impact measures, we collect infant and child mortality data from 3.3m live births and data on stunting and wasting for 1.2m individuals, along with data on education, employment, wealth, marriage and childbearing later in life for similarly large numbers of respondents. Birth years vary from 1893 to 2012. We seek to improve upon existing work on the socio-economic impact of drought in a number of ways. First, we introduce from the hydrological literature a drought measure, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), that has been shown to closely proxy the Palmer drought index, but has far less demanding data requirements, and can be obtained globally and for long time periods. We estimate the SPI for 110 years on a global 0.5° grid, which allows us to assign drought histories to the geocoded individual data. Additionally, we leverage our large sample size to explicitly investigate both how drought impacts have changed over time as adaptation occurred at a varying pace in different locations, and the role of the regional extent of drought in determining impacts.

  15. Historical global statistics for mineral and material commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matos, Grecia R.; Miller, Lisa D.; Barry, James J.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides information on the current use and flow of minerals and mineral-based materials in the U.S. and world economies. This Data Series report on “Historical Global Statistics for Mineral and Material Commodities” contains information on the production of selected commodities from 1990 to the most current year. The data may be used in the analysis of socioeconomic developments and trends and in the study of environmental issues associated with the extraction and processing of the selected commodities.

  16. Issues in Designing Assessments of Historical Thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercikan, Kadriye; Seixas, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Similar to educators in mathematics, science, and reading, history educators around the world have mobilized curricular reform movements toward including complex thinking in history education, advancing historical thinking, developing historical consciousness, and teaching competence in historical sense making. These reform movements, including…

  17. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-09-01

    In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

  18. Global energy shifts: Future possibilities in historical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, Bruce Michael

    2000-11-01

    This study adopts a macro-comparative, world-systems perspective in order to shed light on the dynamics that led to a global shift away from primary reliance on coal and towards over-reliance on petroleum. It is argued that the interaction of three global dynamics, those of geopolitical rivalry, commercial competition, and social unrest, undermined the nineteenth-century international coal system and paved the way for the consolidation of an international petroleum system in the twentieth century. Specifically, the historical analysis presented in this dissertation shows that: (1) intervention by state agents was absolutely crucial in the early development and later expansion of the international petroleum system; (2) private coal companies attempted to prevent the consolidation of an oil-based energy system, but these older companies were out-competed by newer, multinational petroleum corporations; and (3) waves of labor unrest in established coal industries played a key role in prompting a relatively rapid shift away from coal and towards petroleum. Indeed, a key conclusion of this study is that pressures exerted by such social movements as labor unions, nationalist movements, and environmental coalitions have played as important a role in influencing energy trajectories as the more commonly-recognized actions of governmental and corporate actors. By examining contemporary patterns of state and private investments in a cluster of new energy technologies, as well as the growing influence of environmental regulations it is argued that global dynamics are beginning to favor a shift towards new, more environmentally sustainable energy technologies. The fuel cell is highlighted as one new energy technology that is poised to enter into widespread diffusion in the coming decades, though potentials for expansions in wind, solar, small-scale hydro-electric, and modern biomass systems are also examined. Although significant hurdles must be overcome, this study concludes by

  19. A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Five scenarios are compared based on different waste management systems from 1970 to 2010. • Technology development for incineration and vehicular exhaust system throughout the time period is considered. • Compared scenarios show continuous improvement regarding environmental performance of waste management system. • Energy and material recovery from waste account for significant savings of Global Warming Potential (GWP) today. • Technology development for incineration has played key role in lowering the GWP during past five decades. - Abstract: The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP100), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO2-eq. tonne−1 to net saving of 670 kg CO2-eq. tonne−1 of MSWM

  20. Industrial Property and global competitiveness in historical perspective; Propiedad industrial y competitividad global en perspectiva historica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saiz, P.

    2011-07-01

    The ability to compete globally changes over time. The processes of technological innovation and education largely determine economic growth and international competitiveness. The development and evolution of Intellectual Property Rights in the long term have been essential for the management of R and D and of creative and innovative competence's in several countries. Thus, economic and technological history becomes an essential tool for analysts and political economists. And the historical archive of the Spanish Patents and Trademarks Office turns out to be a laboratory of the past for thinking on the future. (Author) 48 refs.

  1. [Historical evolution and chinese definition of global health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xiaoyou; Liang, Xiaohui; Mao, Zongfu; Sun, Jikuan; Jiang, Yu; Liu, Yuanli; Ren, Minghui

    2015-03-01

    Under the background of globalization, public health issues are becoming more and more complicated. In the international arena, global health has gradually replaced international health and "global public health" as one of the dominant terms in the field of public health. However, until now, there is no unified understanding and definition for the concept of global health domestically and internationally. In this article, various foreign experts 'views and domestic experts' opinions about the concept of global health are collected and solicited, in order to generalize appropriate Chinese definition of global health of China. PMID:26268860

  2. NGDC/WDS Global Historical Tsunami Database, 2100 BC to present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Tsunami Database provides information on over 2,400 tsunamis from 2100 BC to the present in the the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans; and...

  3. Monthly Summaries of the Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-D)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly Summaries of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)-Daily is a dataset derived from GHCN-Daily. The data are produced by computing simple averages or...

  4. Historical data summary of the systematic assessment of licensee performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Historical Data Summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) is produced periodically by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This summary provides the results of the assessment for each facility by NRC region and is further divided into the following three sections: Section 1 presents the most recent SALP report ratings for facilities under construction and in operation. Section 2 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each operating facility. Section 3 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each facility under construction. For historical purposes, past construction SALP ratings for facilities that recently have been licensed also are listed in Section 3

  5. Historical and Contemporary Factors Govern Global Biodiversity Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Chase, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    A novel hierarchical framework integrates the effects of time, area, productivity, and temperature at their respective relevant scales and successfully predicts the latitudinal gradient in global vertebrate diversity.

  6. Globalization and Religion in Historical Perspective: A Paradoxical Relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke M. Herrington

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Religion has long been a driving force in the process of globalization. This idea is not controversial or novel thinking, nor is it meant to be. However, the dominant reasoning on the subject of globalization, expressed by authors like Thomas Friedman, places economics at the center of analysis, skewing focus from the ideational factors at work in this process. By expanding the definition of globalization to accommodate ideational factors and cultural exchange, religion’s agency in the process can be enabled. Interestingly, the story of religion and globalization is in some ways the history of globalization, but it is riddled with paradoxes, including the agent-opponent paradox, the subject of this article. Religion and globalization have a co-constitutive relationship, but religious actors are both agents of globalization and principals in its backlash. While some actors might benefit from a mutually reinforcing relationship with globalization, others are marginalized in some way or another, so it is necessary to expose the links and wedges that allow for such a paradox. To that end, the concepts of globalization and religious actors must be defined, and the history of the agent-opponent paradox, from the Buddhists of the Silk Road to the Jubilee campaign of 2000, must be elucidated.

  7. Teaching the Impact of Globalization through Historical Archaeology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Marilyn C.

    Historical archaeology has evolved from an early preoccupation with famous houses and forts to a study of capitalism around the world. Archaeologists study the cultures and interrelationships of the colonizers and the colonized as they negotiated their places in an ever-expanding world system. Recent studies in South Africa, Latin America, and the…

  8. Historical and contemporary factors govern global biodiversity patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Chase

    Full Text Available A novel hierarchical framework integrates the effects of time, area, productivity, and temperature at their respective relevant scales and successfully predicts the latitudinal gradient in global vertebrate diversity.

  9. Assessing the completeness of Italian historical earthquake data

    OpenAIRE

    A. Rebez; M. Mirto; Albini, P.; Stucchi, M.

    2004-01-01

    The assessment of the completeness of historical earthquake data (such as, for instance, parametric earthquake catalogues) has usually been approached in seismology - and mainly in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment(PSHA) - by means of statistical procedures. Such procedures look «inside» the data set under investigation and compare it to seismicity models, which often require more or less explicitly that seismicity is stationary. They usually end up determining times (Ti), from which on...

  10. Forecasting Equity Premium: Global Historical Average versus Local Historical Average and Constraints

    OpenAIRE

    Tae-Hwy Lee; Yundong Tu; Aman Ullah

    2014-01-01

    The equity premium, return on equity minus return on risk-free asset, is expected to be positive. We consider imposing such positivity constraint in local historical average (LHA) in nonparametric kernel regression framework. It is also extended to the semiparametric single index model when multiple predictors are used. We construct the constrained LHA estimator via an indicator function which operates as `model-selection' between the unconstrained LHA and the bound of the constraint (zero fo...

  11. Assessing the completeness of Italian historical earthquake data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rebez

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of the completeness of historical earthquake data (such as, for instance, parametric earthquake catalogues has usually been approached in seismology - and mainly in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment(PSHA - by means of statistical procedures. Such procedures look «inside» the data set under investigation and compare it to seismicity models, which often require more or less explicitly that seismicity is stationary. They usually end up determining times (Ti, from which on the data set is considered as complete above a given magnitude (Mi; the part of the data set before Ti is considered as incomplete and, for that reason, not suitable for statistical analysis. As a consequence, significant portions of historical data sets are not used for PSHA. Dealing with historical data sets - which are incomplete by nature, although this does not mean that they are of low value - it seems more appropriate to estimate «how much incomplete» the data sets can be and to use them together with such estimates. In other words, it seems more appropriate to assess the completeness looking «outside » the data sets; that is, investigating the way historical records have been produced, preserved and retrieved. This paper presents the results of investigation carried out in Italy, according to historical methods. First, the completeness of eighteen site seismic histories has been investigated; then, from those results, the completeness of areal portions of the catalogue has been assessed and compared with similar results obtained by statistical methods. Finally, the impact of these results on PSHA is described.

  12. Exploring Local to Global Leadership Education Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, John P.

    2012-01-01

    From individual student learning outcomes to full-scale program enhancement, assessment is critical in developing and sustaining leadership education. This chapter will look at assessment techniques and trends spanning from local to global frameworks. International Leadership Association overarching Outcomes and Assessment Guiding Question: "What…

  13. Global oil palm suitability assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Pirker, J.; Mosnier, A

    2015-01-01

    The palm oil boom of recent years has brought about both positive - economic development - and negative impacts - deforestation, habitat losses and increased GHG emissions - in the main producer countries in South-East Asia. As global demand for palm oil is still increasing, governments of developing and emerging countries increasingly promote oil palm cultivation as a major contributor to economic development, but there are concerns about the potential negative impacts of oil palm expansion ...

  14. Global Ex-Situ Crop Diversity Conservation and the Svalbard Global Seed Vault: Assessing the Current Status

    OpenAIRE

    Westengen, Ola T; Jeppson, Simon; Guarino, Luigi

    2013-01-01

    Ex-situ conservation of crop diversity is a global concern, and the development of an efficient and sustainable conservation system is a historic priority recognized in international law and policy. We assess the completeness of the safety duplication collection in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault with respect to data on the world's ex-situ collections as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Currently, 774,601 samples are deposited at Svalbard by 53 genebanks...

  15. Applying Historic Science Communication Lessons to Today's Global Change Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocchio, L. E.

    2009-12-01

    As global population surges towards seven billion and anthropogenic impacts ricochet throughout Earth’s environment, effective science communication has become essential. In today’s digital world where science communication must contend with stiff competition for audience attention, it is crucial to understand the lessons gleaned from a century worth of science communication research. Starting in the early part of the twentieth century a cadre of American scientists began to advocate for better public understanding of science, arguing that better understanding of science meant a better quality of life, better public affairs deliberations, and the elevation of democracy and culture. To improve science communication, many models of the communication process have been developed since then. Starting in the 1940s, science communication researchers adopted the linear communication model of electrical engineering. Over time, the one-way scientific communication of the linear model came to be identified with the deficit model approach—which assumes little prior scientific knowledge on the part of the receiver. A major failure of the deficit model was witnessed during the Mad Cow Disease outbreak in the UK: beef safety was over-simplified in the communication process, people were given a false sense of security, many ended up sick, and public trust in government plummeted. Of the many lessons learned from failures of the deficit model, arguably, the most significant lesson is that the public’s prior knowledge and life experience is always brought to bear on the message, i.e. the message must be contextualized. Here, we examine the major science communication lessons of the past century and discuss how they can inform more effective global change communication.

  16. A historical review on the roles of science and politics in addressing global environmental issues

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peter USHER; Qian YE

    2009-01-01

    Based on a historical review of the so-called Ozone crisis in the late 1970s and global climate changes since the 1980s, this paper examines the role of sciences and policies in the international community in dealing with the global environmental issues. Lessons show that a multi-discipline, multi-organizational and multi-national UN agency which remains relevant, assisting rather than guiding the process of climate negotiations is important.

  17. CERN in a historic Global Web-cast

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    On Thursday 1st December, CERN will be involved in 'Beyond Einstein', a 12-hour live world-wide web-cast, which will feature participants from across the globe, marking the World Year of Physics. CERN goes global: the 12-hour web-cast will unite different world timezones by means of the web. Viewers on the web will be able to tune into one of the most extensive videoconference in the world to learn more about Einstein's physics and how it continues to influence cutting-edge research worldwide. The event kicks off at midday (CET) with a live presentation at CERN's Globe of Science and Innovation, featuring a symbolic link-up with the New Library of Alexandria in Egypt. There will then be transmissions from a host of research institutions, such as Imperial College, Fermilab and SLAC. There will also be live connections with Jerusalem, Taipei, San Francisco, Tasmania and even Antarctica. 'Connections will be established among virtually all the time zones on Earth, a perfect way to celebrate Einstein, who rev...

  18. The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day−1, while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day−1) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked. (letters)

  19. Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability of a Historical Masonry Building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelo Garofano

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A multidisciplinary approach for assessing the seismic vulnerability of heritage masonry buildings is described throughout the paper. The procedure is applied to a specific case study that represents a very common typology of masonry building in Italy. The seismic vulnerability of the examined building was assessed after the following: (a historical investigation about the building and the surrounding area, (b detailed geometrical relieves, (c identification of materials by means of surveys and literature indications, (d dynamic in-situ tests, (e foundation soil characterization, (f dynamic identification of the structure by means of a refined Finite Element (FE model. After these steps, the FE model was used to assess the safety level of the building by means of non-linear static analyses according to the provisions of Eurocode 8 and estimate of the q-factor. Some parametric studies were also carried out by means of both linear dynamic and non-linear static analyses.

  20. Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program - GSHAP legacy

    OpenAIRE

    Laurentiu Danciu; Domenico Giardini

    2015-01-01

    Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program - or simply GSHAP, when launched, almost two decades ago, aimed at establishing a common framework to evaluate the seismic hazard over geographical large-scales, i.e. countries, regions, continents and finally the globe. Its main product, the global seismic hazard map was a milestone, unique at that time and for a decade have served as the main reference worldwide. Today, for most of the Earth’s seismically active regions such Europe, Northern and Sout...

  1. Assessment of Drought Severity Techniques - A Historical Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panu, U. S.; Crinklaw, T.

    2011-12-01

    Droughts are natural phenomenon experienced by all nations across the globe. Drought inherently means a scarcity of water, which adversely affects various sectors of human socio-economic spectrum, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation, water supply, industry, recreation, navigation, fish production etc. The prime cause of droughts is the occurrence of less than optimal (below normal) precipitation, which has its origin to various natural reasons, the most important being the global climatic forcing. Droughts are also referred to as sustained and regionally extensive occurrences of below average water availability which invariably cultivate into environmental disasters. The evolution of a drought event is defined into four types; meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Drought affects all aspects of societal systems irrespective of how it is defined. This has led to a wide range of studies conducted by meteorologists, ecologists, environmentalists, hydrologists, geologists and agricultural scientists in attempts to understand drought processes as required to analyze and predict the impacts of droughts. A conceptual definition, such as a shortage of water relied on by human activity, avoids quantification of a drought event. On the other hand, the purpose of an operational definition is to determine the beginning, termination, and severity of a drought event. The severity assessment of droughts is of primary importance for allocation and management of available water resources. The progression and impact of historical droughts in a region is helpful for developing relationships and techniques to investigate relevant characteristics of droughts. For optimum drought preparedness and mitigative responses, professional bodies need to provide information to private and government agencies in a manner that may also be understood by their employers, stakeholders and the general public. Drought indicators bridge this communication gap between all

  2. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  3. Beyond offshoring: assess your company's global potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Diana

    2004-12-01

    In the past few years, companies have become aware that they can slash costs by offshoring: moving jobs to lower-wage locations. But this practice is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how globalization can transform industries, according to research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). The institute's yearlong study suggests that by streamlining their production processes and supply chains globally, rather than just nationally or regionally, companies can lower their costs-as we've seen in the consumer-electronics and PC industries. Companies can save as much as 70% of their total costs through globalization--50% from offshoring, 5% from training and business-task redesign, and 15% from process improvements. But they don't have to stop there. The cost reductions make it possible to lower prices and expand into new markets, attracting whole new classes of customers. To date, however, few businesses have recognized the full scope of performance improvements that globalization makes possible, much less developed sound strategies for capturing those opportunities. In this article, Diana Farrell, director of MGI, offers a step-by-step approach to doing both things. Among her suggestions: Assess where your industry falls along the globalization spectrum, because not all sectors of the economy face the same challenges and opportunities at the same time. Also, pay attention to production, regulatory, and organizational barriers to globalization. If any of these can be changed, size up the cost-saving (and revenue-generating) opportunities that will emerge for your company as a result of those changes. Farrell also defines the five stages of globalization-market entry, product specialization, value chain disaggregation, value chain reengineering, and the creation of new markets-and notes the different levers for cutting costs and creating value that companies can use in each phase. PMID:15605568

  4. Global mineral resource assessment: porphyry copper assessment of Mexico: Chapter A in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Robinson, Gilpin R., Jr.; Ludington, Steve; Gray, Floyd; Drenth, Benjamin J.; Cendejas-Cruz, Francisco; Espinosa, Enrique; Pérez-Segura, Efrén; Valencia-Moreno, Martín; Rodríguez-Castañeda, José Luis; Vásquez-Mendoza, Rigobert; Zürcher, Lukas

    2010-01-01

    Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about distributions of mineral deposits in the Earth’s crust. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources in porphyry copper deposits in Mexico was done as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within 1 km of the surface at a scale of 1:1,000,000; (2) provide a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered deposits for each permissive tract. The assessment was conducted using a three-part form of mineral resource assessment based on mineral deposit models (Singer, 1993). Delineation of permissive tracts primarily was based on distributions of mapped igneous rocks related to magmatic arcs that formed in tectonic settings associated with subduction boundary zones. Using a GIS, map units were selected from digital geologic maps based on lithology and age to delineate twelve permissive tracts associated with Jurassic, Laramide (~90 to 34 Ma), and younger Tertiary magmatic arcs. Stream-sediment geochemistry, mapped alteration, regional aeromagnetic data, and exploration history were considered in conjunction with descriptive deposit models and grade and tonnage models to guide estimates.

  5. The global historical climatology network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, and pressure data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the past several decades. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, many different organizations and researchers have compiled these data sets, making it confusing and time consuming for individuals to acquire the most comprehensive data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, DOE's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) established the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for as dense a network of global stations as possible. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global data base; to subject the data to rigorous quality control; and to update, enhance, and distribute the data set at regular intervals. The purpose of this paper is to describe the compilation and contents of the GHCN data base (i.e., GHCN Version 1.0)

  6. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T.B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Patwardhan, A.; Gomez-Echeverri, L. (eds.)

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  7. Accuracy Assessment Points for Friendship Hill National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — Location of thematic accuracy assessment sampling points used in the vegetation classification and mapping of Friendship Hill National Historic Site.

  8. Assessment of global water security: moving beyond water scarcity assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Gain, A. K.; Giupponi, C.

    2015-12-01

    Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies, and the ecosystems on which we depend. Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Hence, ensuring water security along with energy and food securities has been recognised as priority goals in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the United Nations. This water security is not rooted only in the limitation of physical resources, i.e. the shortage in the availability of freshwater relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. flawed water planning and management approaches, institutional incapability to provide water services, unsustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for assessment of global water scarcity. However, integrating both physical and socio-economic indicators assessment of water security at global level is not available yet. In this study, we present the first global understanding of water security using a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework that goes beyond available water scarcity assessment. For assessing water security at global scale, the term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The Water security index is calculated by aggregating the indicators using both simple additive weighting (SAW) and ordered weighted average (OWA).

  9. Historical site assessment, Saxton PWR, USA. Annex II-10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: II-10.1. PROBLEM ENCOUNTERED. A competent historical site assessment (HSA) requires much time in reviewing records from construction era documents on up to the most recent plant records. Sometimes simply retrieving the records of interest can be daunting. Old records were sometimes filed using methods that have since been forgotten. This process can take a very long time. Most plant records, particularly older ones, are generally brief and lacking of very much explanatory narrative. Log books and other similar records were maintained by individuals who were highly familiar with the operations being carried out, and they were written for the benefit of other individuals who were equally as familiar with the particular operation or process. Consequently, many entries will be quite brief and will contain operation-specific jargon to such a degree as to make it very difficult for an HSA reviewer to extract useful information from these sources. II-10.2. ANALYSIS. When reviewing historical documents, it may be useful to obtain the services of someone who is familiar with the operations in question [II-10.1]. This type of individual may still be on the plant staff or may be available as a retiree or other former employee. In the case of Saxton, it was very useful to interview individuals who had actually taken part in various phases of decommissioning, in order to gain first-hand perspectives on the process. II-10.3. LESSONS LEARNED. Old records may generate as many questions as they answer. (author)

  10. Historical Pattern and Future Trajectories of Terrestrial N2O Emission driven by Multi-factor Global Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Yang, J.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.

    2015-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is among the most important greenhouse gases only next to carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) due to its long life time and high radiative forcing (with a global warming potential 265 times as much as CO2 at 100-year time horizon). The Atmospheric concentration of N2O has increased by 20% since pre-industrial era, and this increase plays a significant role in shaping anthropogenic climate change. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, fewer studies have been performed in assessing and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of N2O emission from natural and agricultural soils. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model, DLEM, to quantify the historical and future changes in global terrestrial N2O emissions resulting from natural and anthropogenic perturbations including climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) over the period 1900-2099. We focused on inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes during historical and future periods. The sensitivity of N2O emission to climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities has been examined at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. Future projections were conducted to identify the hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission under two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). It provides a modeling perspective for understanding human-induced N2O emission growth and developing potential management strategies to mitigate further atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

  11. Exploring Formative Assessment Using Cultural Historical Activity Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandy Asghar

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Formative assessment is a pedagogic practice that has been the subject of much research and debate, as to how it can be used most effectively to deliver enhanced student learning in the higher education setting. Often described as a complex concept it embraces activities that range from facilitating students understanding of assessment standards, to providing formative feedback on their work; from very informal opportunities of engaging in conversations, to the very formal process of submitting drafts of work. This study aims to show how cultural historical activity theory can be used as a qualitative analysis framework to explore the complexities of formative assessment as it is used in higher education. The original data for the research was collected in 2008 by semi structured interviews and analysed using a hermeneutic phenomenological approach. For this present paper three selected transcripts were re-examined, using a case study approach that sought to understand and compare the perceptions of five academic staff, from three distinct subject areas taught within a UK university. It is proposed that using activity theory can provide insight into the complexity of such experiences, about what teachers do and why, and the influence of the community in which they are situated. Individually the cases from each subject area were analysed using activity theory exploring how the mediating artefacts of formative assessment were used; the often implicit rules that governed their use and the roles of teachers and students within the local subject community. The analysis also considered the influence each aspect of the unit of activity had on the other in understanding formative assessment practice. Subsequently the three subject cases were compared and contrasted. The findings illuminate a variety of practices, including how students and staff engage together in formative assessment activities and for some, how dialogue is used as one of the key tools

  12. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  13. PIRACY REGULATION AND THE FILIPINO’S HISTORICAL RESPONSE TO GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolando B. Tolentino

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The essay examines the racial discourse of Moros and Moro-profiling by the state in piracy—sea piracy in olden times and media piracy in contemporary times. Moro piracy becomes a local cosmopolitanism in the Philippines’ attempt to integrate in various eras of global capitalism. From the analysis of media piracy, the Moro “dibidi” (pirated DVD seller becomes the body that mediates between the Filipinos’ middle-class fantasy of a branded lifestyle and the reality that most Filipinos do not have full access to global consumerism. Using a cultural studies framework, the essay draws a connection between seemingly unlinked events and sources, allowing for a historical and social dialog, past and present, to mix, creating junctures for sites of dialog and critique.

  14. Accuracy Assessment Points for Valley Forge National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This shapefile includes the accuracy assessment points used to assess the association-level vegetation map of Valley Forge National Historic Park developed by the...

  15. Globalization, Culture and the Great Disruption: An Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jones M. Jaja

    2012-01-01

    Globalization inspite of its touted advantages has become the greatest threat to economic and political sovereignty. Capitalism as we know it is falling apart especially in sub-Saharan Africa with a diverse culture and where the transformation is pervasive. This paper examines globalization historically, its dimension and context, national cultures and the ethnical perception of globalization. And concludes by examining the disruptive effect on African societies.

  16. Stem cell engineering a WTEC global assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Loring, Jeanne; McDevitt, Todd; Palecek, Sean; Schaffer, David; Zandstra, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book describes a global assessment of stem cell engineering research, achieved through site visits by a panel of experts to leading institutes, followed by dedicated workshops. The assessment made clear that engineers and the engineering approach with its quantitative, system-based thinking can contribute much to the progress of stem cell research and development. The increased need for complex computational models and new, innovative technologies, such as high-throughput screening techniques, organ-on-a-chip models and in vitro tumor models require an increasing involvement of engineers and physical scientists. Additionally, this book will show that although the US is still in a leadership position in stem cell engineering, Asian countries such as Japan, China and Korea, as well as European countries like the UK, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands are rapidly expanding their investments in the field. Strategic partnerships between countries could lead to major advances of the field and scalable expansi...

  17. Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program - GSHAP legacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurentiu Danciu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program - or simply GSHAP, when launched, almost two decades ago, aimed at establishing a common framework to evaluate the seismic hazard over geographical large-scales, i.e. countries, regions, continents and finally the globe. Its main product, the global seismic hazard map was a milestone, unique at that time and for a decade have served as the main reference worldwide. Today, for most of the Earth’s seismically active regions such Europe, Northern and Southern America, Central and South-East Asia, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the GSHAP seismic hazard map is outdated. The rapid increase of the new data, advance on the earthquake process knowledge, technological progress, both hardware and software, contributed all in updates of the seismic hazard models. We present herein, a short retrospective overview of the achievements as well as the pitfalls of the GSHAP. Further, we describe the next generation of seismic hazard models, as elaborated within the Global Earthquake Model, regional programs: the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model, the 2014 Earthquake Model for Middle East, and the 2015 Earthquake Model of Central Asia. Later, the main characteristics of these regional models are summarized and the new datasets fully harmonized across national borders are illustrated for the first time after the GSHAP completion.

  18. How to Quantify Human-environment Interactions in the Past: A Global Historical Land Use Data Set for the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein Goldewijk, K.

    2015-12-01

    Land use plays an important role in the climate system. Many ecosystem processes are directly or indirectly climate driven, and together with human driven land use changes, they determine how the land surface will evolve through time. To assess the effects of land cover changes on the climate system, models are required which are capable of simulating interactions between the involved components of the Earth system. Since driving forces for global environmental change differ among regions, a geographically (spatially) explicit modeling approach is called for, so that it can be incorporated in global and regional (climate and/or biophysical) change models in order to enhance our understanding of the underlying processes and thus improving future projections.Some researchers suggest that mankind has shifted from living in the Holocene (~emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (~humans capable of changing the Earth' atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land use changes (e.g. the Black Plague in the 14th century and the aftermath of the Colombian Exchange in the 16th century), some believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time. There are still many uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge about the importance of land use (change) in the global biogeochemical cycle, and it is crucial that researchers from other disciplines are involved in decreasing the uncertainties.Thus, integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleo-environmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. Here I present a tool for such long term global change studies; it is the latest update (v 3.2) of the History Database of the Global

  19. From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miina Porkka

    Full Text Available Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965-2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (15% of dietary energy supply increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.

  20. Estimates of Historical Global Sources and Sinks of Carbon from Land Cover and Land Use Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, T. K.; Yang, X.; Jain, A. K.

    2009-12-01

    A geographically explicit terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) is used to examine the response of plant and soil carbon stocks to historical land cover and land use changes (LCLUCs). The ISAM model is forced with three different LCLUC datasets for cropland and pastureland coupled with observed atmospheric CO2, temperature, precipitation data and estimated changes in N deposition. The model also considers wood harvesting on primary and secondary forests. The objective of this study is to evaluate uncertainties in the land use emissions by forcing a single terrestrial model with three different LCLUC datasets. This approach allows us to isolate the LCLUC data related uncertainties from the model related uncertainties in the terrestrial carbon fluxes. The evaluation of three alternative data sets for historical changes in LCLUC is important because the flux associated with land cover change is responsible for substantial uncertainty in net land-atmosphere flux for the recent decades.

  1. Global approach of mean service satisfaction assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Dooguy Kora

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical expression for mobile service satisfaction assessment has been proposed. Mobile networks users’ satisfaction is a major concern for the operators and regulators. Therefore a certain level of network qualification is required to be offered to consumers by operators thanks to the decisions initiated by the regulation authority. For the assessment of the level of satisfaction, several methodologies and tools (measuring and monitoring have emerged. Ranking in two broad categories, namely the objective and subjective methods, both have advantages as well as disadvantages. This Letter has proposed a unified approach to evaluate more objectively users’ level of satisfaction of a service based on the most common network key performance indicators (KPIs rate following the different methods. This approach's main advantage is that it has taken advantages of the different positive aspects of the existing methods and outperformed their limitations thanks to the introduced concept of global KPI. In addition, the size of samples according to each method has been considered. A mean service satisfaction theoretical expression has been proposed to regulation authority, consumers association and operators as common base of service satisfaction assessment.

  2. The United Nations and Global Public Goods: Historical Contributions and Future Challenges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce Jenks

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Published by Palgrave MacmillanThis chapter explores the thesis that the United Nations’ (UN most important contribution to the production of global public goods has been its role in creating the space and capacity to generate shared values. Starting with the UN Charter itself, the chapter traces the evolution of this contribution through different historical phases. It analyses the impact of globalisation on the role of the UN; in particular it identifies the quality of porousness as a product of globalisation which is critical to understanding the current challenges faced by the UN as well as central to the global public goods agenda. Through this lens the author briefly reviews the evolution of the UN’s role in the fields of peace and security, human rights and development cooperation. He concludes by identifying eight levers for change that will determine the UN’s ability to contribute significantly to the global public goods: the generation of norms and shared values, the quality of leadership, improved governance, innovative financing, institutional realignment, the further consolidation of legal instruments, focus, and the power of networks.

  3. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  4. 75 FR 1793 - Study Team for the Los Alamos Historical Document Retrieval and Assessment (LAHDRA) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-13

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Study Team for the Los Alamos Historical...: Public Meeting of the Study Team for the Los Alamos Historical Document Retrieval and Assessment...

  5. Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng;

    2016-01-01

    on Light Detection and Ranging-derived maximum forest canopy height (Hmax) to test hypotheses relating Hmax to current climate (water availability, ambient energy and water–energy dynamics), regional evolutionary and biogeographic history, historical climate change, and human disturbance. We derived...... relative importance of the different hypothesized factors. Hmax was inversely related to latitude (i.e. tall canopies at the equator), but with high geographical variability. Actual evapotranspiration and annual precipitation were the factors most correlated to Hmax globally, thus supporting the water–energy...... dynamics hypothesis. However, water limitation emerged as a key factor in tropical and temperate biomes within specific geographic regions, while energy limitation was a more important factor in boreal regions where temperature is more limiting to trees than water. Hmax exhibited strong variation among...

  6. Assessment of global flood exposures - developing an appropriate approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Booth, Naomi

    2015-04-01

    Increasingly complex probabilistic catastrophe models have become the standard for quantitative flood risk assessments by re/insurance companies. On the one hand, probabilistic modelling of this nature is extremely useful; a large range of risk metrics can be output. However, they can be time consuming and computationally expensive to develop and run. Levels of uncertainty are persistently high despite, or perhaps because of, attempts to increase resolution and complexity. A cycle of dependency between modelling companies and re/insurers has developed whereby available models are purchased, models run, and both portfolio and model data 'improved' every year. This can lead to potential exposures in perils and territories that are not currently modelled being largely overlooked by companies, who may then face substantial and unexpected losses when large events occur in these areas. We present here an approach to assessing global flood exposures which reduces the scale and complexity of approach used and begins with the identification of hotspots where there is a significant exposure to flood risk. The method comprises four stages: i) compile consistent exposure information, ii) to apply reinsurance terms and conditions to calculate values exposed, iii) to assess the potential hazard using a global set of flood hazard maps, and iv) to identify potential risk 'hotspots' which include considerations of spatially and/or temporally clustered historical events, and local flood defences. This global exposure assessment is designed as a scoping exercise, and reveals areas or cities where the potential for accumulated loss is of significant interest to a reinsurance company, and for which there is no existing catastrophe model. These regions are then candidates for the development of deterministic scenarios, or probabilistic models. The key advantages of this approach will be discussed. These include simplicity and ability of business leaders to understand results, as well as

  7. Accuracy Assessment Points for Colonial National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This shapefile depicts the locations of thematic accuracy assessment sampling points used in the vegetation mapping of Colonial National Historical Park. It was...

  8. Accuracy Assessment Points for Washita Battlefield National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This metadata is for the 2006 accuracy assessment points (spatial database) created from the sample points collected at Washita Battlefield National Historic Site.

  9. Accuracy Assessment Points for San Antonio Missions National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This metadata is for the 2006 accuracy assessment points (spatial database) created from the sample points collected at San Antonio Missions National Historical Park.

  10. Accuracy Assessment Points for Appomattox Court House National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This shapefile depicts the locations of thematic accuracy assessment sampling points used in the vegetation mapping of Appomottox Court House National Historical...

  11. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  12. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models accurately reproduces the evolution over time and spatial patterns of the historically observed increase in monthly heat extremes. For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario. However, mitigation can strongly reduce the number of heat extremes by the second half of the 21st century. Unmitigated climate change causes most (>50%) continental regions to move to a new climatic regime with the coldest summer months by the end of the century substantially hotter than the hottest experienced today. We show that the land fraction experiencing extreme heat as a function of global mean temperature follows a simple cumulative distribution function, which depends only on natural variability and the level of spatial heterogeneity in the warming. (letter)

  13. Magnitude Problems in Historical Earthquake Catalogs and Their Impact on Seismic Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Mahdyiar, M.; Shen-Tu, B.; Shabestari, K.; Guin, J.

    2010-12-01

    A reliable historical earthquake catalog is a critical component for any regional seismic hazard analysis. In Europe, a number of historical earthquake catalogs have been compiled and used in constructing national or regional seismic hazard maps, for instance, Switzerland ECOS catalog by Swiss Seismological Service (2002), Italy CPTI catalog by CPTI Working Group (2004), Greece catalog by Papazachos et al. (2007), and CENEC (central, northern and northwestern Europe) catalog by Grünthal et al. (2009), Turkey catalog by Kalafat et al. (2007), and GSHAP catalog by Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (1999). These catalogs spatially overlap with each other to a large extent and employed a uniform magnitude scale (Mw). A careful review of these catalogs has revealed significant magnitude problems which can substantially impact regional seismic hazard assessment: 1) Magnitudes for the same earthquakes in different catalogs are discrepant. Such discrepancies are mainly driven by different regression relationships used to convert other magnitude scales or intensity into Mw. One of the consequences is magnitudes of many events in one catalog are systematically biased higher or lower with respect to those in another catalog. For example, the magnitudes of large historical earthquakes in the Italy CPTI catalog are systematically higher than those in Switzerland ECOS catalog. 2) Abnormally high frequency of large magnitude events is observed for some time period that intensities are the main available data. This phenomenon is observed in Italy CPTI catalog for the time period of 1870 to 1930. This may be due to biased conversion from intensity to magnitude. 3) A systematic bias in magnitude resulted in biased estimations for a- and b-values of the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency relationships. It also affected the determination of upper bound magnitudes for various seismic source zones. All of these issues can lead to skewed seismic hazard results, or inconsistent

  14. Seismic Assessment and Retrofit of Historical Masonry Structures

    OpenAIRE

    Cuzzilla, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    The Italian building heritage is composed mainly of masonry structures, which over the years have acquired historic significance and artistic values in the national culture. These buildings are particularly vulnerable to the seismic actions, because they were design for gravitational loads without considering seismic actions applied on them. Thus, the constructive details are not compliant with the present design code provisions (e.g. in plan or elevation structural regularity) and to avoid c...

  15. General Education Assessment at Private Historically Black Colleges and Universities: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Willis A.

    2010-01-01

    The majority of research on general education assessment in recent years has focused primarily on predominately white institutions. Very little is known about general education assessment at historically black colleges and universities (HBCUS). Using descriptive analysis, this exploratory study examines the state of general education assessment at…

  16. Global gradients in vertebrate diversity predicted by historical area-productivity dynamics and contemporary environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetz, Walter; Fine, Paul V A

    2012-01-01

    Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or "evolutionary arenas," characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients. PMID:22479151

  17. Value assessment of a global hydrological forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; van Beek, E.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    The inter-annual variability in streamflow presents risks and opportunities in the management of water resources systems. Reliable hydrological forecasts, effective communication and proper response allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. A global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value for these regions. FEWS-World system is developed for this purpose. It is based on the Delft-FEWS (flood early warning system) developed by Deltares and incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value as its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. For the assessment in historical simulation mode a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode the model was forced with ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The results of the preliminary assessment show that although forecasting skill decreases with increasing lead time, the value of forecasts does not necessarily decrease. The forecast requirements and response options of several water related sectors was

  18. Considerate SDT methods for safety assessment of historic timber

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Drdácký, Miloš; Kloiber, Michal

    Porto: University of Porto, 2015 - (Silva Gomes, J.; Meguid, S.), s. 915-916 ISBN 978-989-98832-2-2. [M2D2015. International conference on mechanics and materials in design /6./. Ponta Delgada (PT), 26.07.2015-30.07.2015] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP105/12/G059; GA MK(CZ) DF11P01OVV001 Keywords : historic timber * in-situ compression testing * core compression test * moisture effect Subject RIV: JN - Civil Engineering

  19. An integrated approach to historical population assessment of the great whales: case of the New Zealand southern right whale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Jennifer A; Carroll, Emma L; Smith, Tim D; Zerbini, Alexandre N; Patenaude, Nathalie J; Baker, C Scott

    2016-03-01

    Accurate estimation of historical abundance provides an essential baseline for judging the recovery of the great whales. This is particularly challenging for whales hunted prior to twentieth century modern whaling, as population-level catch records are often incomplete. Assessments of whale recovery using pre-modern exploitation indices are therefore rare, despite the intensive, global nature of nineteenth century whaling. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) were particularly exploited: slow swimmers with strong fidelity to sheltered calving bays, the species made predictable and easy targets. Here, we present the first integrated population-level assessment of the whaling impact and pre-exploitation abundance of a right whale, the New Zealand southern right whale (E. australis). In this assessment, we use a Bayesian population dynamics model integrating multiple data sources: nineteenth century catches, genetic constraints on bottleneck size and individual sightings histories informing abundance and trend. Different catch allocation scenarios are explored to account for uncertainty in the population's offshore distribution. From a pre-exploitation abundance of 28 800-47 100 whales, nineteenth century hunting reduced the population to approximately 30-40 mature females between 1914 and 1926. Today, it stands at less than 12% of pre-exploitation abundance. Despite the challenges of reconstructing historical catches and population boundaries, conservation efforts of historically exploited species benefit from targets for ecological restoration. PMID:27069657

  20. Development and application of indices using large volcanic databases for a global hazard and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Sarah; Auker, Melanie; Cottrell, Elizabeth; Delgado Granados, Hugo; Loughlin, Sue; Ortiz Guerrero, Natalie; Sparks, Steve; Vye-Brown, Charlotte; Taskforce, Indices

    2015-04-01

    The Global Volcano Model (GVM) and IAVCEI were commissioned by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction to produce a global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk for the Global Assessment Report 2015 (GAR15). This involved presenting both an introduction to volcanology and developing indices to assess hazard and risk on a global scale. To this end two open-access databases were of utmost importance: the Global Volcanism Program's Volcanoes of the World (http://www.volcano.si.edu) and the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions database (LaMEVE; http://www.bgs.ac.uk/vogripa/). Indices were developed to enable a relative global assessment cognisant of data uncertainty and availability to broadly identify how hazard and risk varies around the world, the extent of monitoring and strengths and limitations in knowledge. The accessibility of both physical (e.g. volcano, eruption) and social data is crucial to our understanding of past behaviour, forecasting probable future behaviour and the potential impacts on communities. Such data is regionally highly variable and the eruption record worsens back in time. The Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI) was designed to quantify hazard levels globally, based on the Holocene eruption record. Vulnerability to eruptions was measured using the Population Exposure Index, which weights the population within 100 km of volcanoes by area and historical fatalities. The combination of these indices provides an indicator of population risk at individual volcanoes. The VHI was also combined with the total populations living within 30 km of volcanoes in each country to develop an understanding of the global distribution of volcano threat, and to rank countries by this measure. About half of the historically active volcanoes have insufficient information to adequately calculate VHI and these are highlighted as requiring future research. A database currently in development, GLOVOREMID, collates monitoring data to understand

  1. The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol–cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi-decadal timescales. (letter)

  2. Assessment of Eligibility to National Register of Historic Places Building 431 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, M A; Ullrich, R A

    2003-05-07

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) proposes to demolish the original sections of Building 431 at its main site in Livermore, California. As this action will constitute an undertaking within the regulatory constraints of the National Historic Preservation Act, LLNL arranged for an assessment of the building's historic significance. This report provides a brief history of the magnetic fusion energy research activities housed in Building 431 and a historic assessment of the building. The final recommendation of the report is that, although Building 431 housed some significant breakthroughs in accelerator technology and magnetic mirror plasma confinement, it lacks integrity for the periods of significance of those developments. It is, therefore, not eligible to the National Register of Historic Places.

  3. Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

  4. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    OpenAIRE

    Aanund Killingtveit; Byman Hamududu

    2012-01-01

    Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86%) source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting ...

  5. Assessment of Global Mercury Deposition through Litterfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xun; Bao, Zhengduo; Lin, Che-Jen; Yuan, Wei; Feng, Xinbin

    2016-08-16

    There is a large uncertainty in the estimate of global dry deposition of atmospheric mercury (Hg). Hg deposition through litterfall represents an important input to terrestrial forest ecosystems via cumulative uptake of atmospheric Hg (most Hg(0)) to foliage. In this study, we estimate the quantity of global Hg deposition through litterfall using statistical modeling (Monte Carlo simulation) of published data sets of litterfall biomass production, tree density, and Hg concentration in litter samples. On the basis of the model results, the global annual Hg deposition through litterfall is estimated to be 1180 ± 710 Mg yr(-1), more than two times greater than the estimate by GEOS-Chem. Spatial distribution of Hg deposition through litterfall suggests that deposition flux decreases spatially from tropical to temperate and boreal regions. Approximately 70% of global Hg(0) dry deposition occurs in the tropical and subtropical regions. A major source of uncertainty in this study is the heterogeneous geospatial distribution of available data. More observational data in regions (Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America) where few data sets exist will greatly improve the accuracy of the current estimate. Given that the quantity of global Hg deposition via litterfall is typically 2-6 times higher than Hg(0) evasion from forest floor, global forest ecosystems represent a strong Hg(0) sink. PMID:27418119

  6. Assessment of historic structures based on GPR, ultrasound, and impact-echo data fusion

    OpenAIRE

    Safont Armero, Gonzalo; Salazar Afanador, Addisson; Vergara Domínguez, Luís; Vidal Maciá, Antonio Manuel; Gonzalez, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a method for assessment of historic structures based on the fusion of data from ground-penetrating radar (GPR), ultrasound, and impact-echo testing. The method consists of the following steps: measuring, feature extraction, fusion, representation, and evaluation. The employed techniques for an application in scale models of historical walls are described. Thus, experimental deployment; signal feature processing; fusion operators (including order statisti...

  7. The Historical Development of Educational Assessment in Chile: 1810-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gysling, Jacqueline

    2016-01-01

    This article examines the historical development of the state's actions in educational assessment in Chile from the nineteenth century to the present day, based on the analysis of governmental decrees and regulations related to assessment, and their variability over time. The research identifies six distinctive periods, each of which expresses a…

  8. Exploring Formative Assessment Using Cultural Historical Activity Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Mandy Asghar

    2013-01-01

    Formative assessment is a pedagogic practice that has been the subject of much research and debate, as to how it can be used most effectively to deliver enhanced student learning in the higher education setting. Often described as a complex concept it embraces activities that range from facilitating students understanding of assessment standards, to providing formative feedback on their work; from very informal opportunities of engaging in conversations, to the very formal process of submitti...

  9. What's past is prologue: Supporting global change research with historical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses an ongoing effort to analyze historical remote sensing data and to develop a technology to integrate this analysis into a common framework with the satellite imagery. Historical data and metadata from aircraft remote sensor missions, satellite overflights, and other sources from around the world will be used to develop detailed information on the historical changes in the earth's land, water, and atmospheric resources

  10. Poseidon's paintbox : historical archives of ocean colour in global-change perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernand, M. R.

    2011-11-01

    In the thesis introduction issues are discussed on the historical background of marine optics and on marine optical devices that were used over the past centuries to observe and measure; as in all sciences, in marine optics we can see a steady development: that of ‘measuring’, beginning many centuries ago, to 'knowing' and since less than a century to the understanding of the phenomenon. Hereafter, six themes are treated successively. The first theme, ‘Ocean optics from 1600 (Hudson) to 1930 (Raman), shift in interpretation of natural water colouring’, addresses the question of why it took so long a time to explain the phenomenon ‘the colouring of the sea’, especially the blue colour, despite the age-long interest of sailors, for practical purposes of navigation and detection of fish - of which more later. The second theme ‘On the history of the Secchi disc’, describes the search to establish methods for the determination of (sea) water clarity concerning purposes of navigation (near coast colour changes) just mentioned to detect shoals, and for a more basic purpose, tracing lost objects. The search to determine the clarity of lakes and seas culminated in the invention of the Secchi disc, used since the late 19th century. The third theme, ‘Spectral analysis of the Forel-Ule ocean colour comparator scale’, addresses the accuracy of a colour scale proposed, used in limnology and oceanography. Scale observations are put into perspective with contemporary measurements on the colour of the sea. The fourth theme, ‘Ocean colour changes in the North Pacific since 1930’, handles the question whether long-term ocean colour changes using historic Forel-Ule observations, in this part of the ocean made very frequently over time, can be determined in relation to global change. In principal global warming may cause a gradual change in ocean colour due to the effect of biological, chemical and physical aspects of the ocean-surface. The fifth theme,

  11. The European New Car Assessment Programme: A historical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ratingen, Michiel; Williams, Aled; Lie, Anders; Seeck, Andre; Castaing, Pierre; Kolke, Reinhard; Adriaenssens, Guido; Miller, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    Established in 1997, the European New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP) provides consumers with a safety performance assessment for the majority of the most popular cars in Europe. Thanks to its rigorous crash tests, Euro NCAP has rapidly become an important driver safety improvement to new cars. After ten years of rating vehicles, Euro NCAP felt that a change was necessary to stay in tune with rapidly emerging driver assistance and crash avoidance systems and to respond to shifting priorities in road safety. A new overall rating system was introduced that combines the most important aspects of vehicle safety under a single star rating. The overall rating system has allowed Euro NCAP to continue to push for better fitment and higher performance for vehicles sold on the European market. In the coming years, the safety rating is expected to play an important role in the support of the roll-out of highly automated vehicles. PMID:27140211

  12. The European New Car Assessment Programme: A historical review

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michiel van Ratingen; Aled Williams; Anders Lie; Andre Seeck; Pierre Castaing; Reinhard Kolke; Guido Adriaenssens

    2016-01-01

    Established in 1997,the European New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP) provides consumers with a safety performance assessment for the majority of the most popular cars in Europe.Thanks to its rigorous crash tests,Euro NCAP has rapidly become an important driver safety improvement to new cars.After ten years of rating vehicles,Euro NCAP felt that a change was necessary to stay in tune with rapidly emerging driver assistance and crash avoidance systems and to respond to shifting priorities in road safety.A new overall rating system was introduced that combines the most important aspects of vehicle safety under a single star rating.The overall rating system has allowed Euro NCAP to continue to push for better fitment and higher performance for vehicles sold on the European market.In the coming years,the safety rating is expected to play an important role in the support of the roll-out of highly automated vehicles.

  13. Seismic assessment of historical masonry construction including uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Petromichelakis, Yiannis; Saloustros, Savvas; Pelà, Luca

    2014-01-01

    The evaluation of the seismic vulnerability in monumental buildings is a complex task. This is due to the inherent uncertainty of ancient structures regarding their structural characteristics and material properties that should be properly handled in their seismic assessment. Consequently, a probabilistic study considering the material and structural uncertainties is a necessary step for the seismic protection of the built cultural heritage. This paper presents the study of the seismic vul...

  14. Global ex-situ crop diversity conservation and the Svalbard Global Seed Vault: assessing the current status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westengen, Ola T; Jeppson, Simon; Guarino, Luigi

    2013-01-01

    Ex-situ conservation of crop diversity is a global concern, and the development of an efficient and sustainable conservation system is a historic priority recognized in international law and policy. We assess the completeness of the safety duplication collection in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault with respect to data on the world's ex-situ collections as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Currently, 774,601 samples are deposited at Svalbard by 53 genebanks. We estimate that more than one third of the globally distinct accessions of 156 crop genera stored in genebanks as orthodox seeds are conserved in the Seed Vault. The numbers of safety duplicates of Triticum (wheat), Sorghum (sorghum), Pennisetum (pearl millet), Eleusine (finger millet), Cicer (chickpea) and Lens (lentil) exceed 50% of the estimated numbers of distinct accessions in global ex-situ collections. The number of accessions conserved globally generally reflects importance for food production, but there are significant gaps in the safety collection at Svalbard in some genera of high importance for food security in tropical countries, such as Amaranthus (amaranth), Chenopodium (quinoa), Eragrostis (teff) and Abelmoschus (okra). In the 29 food-crop genera with the largest number of accessions stored globally, an average of 5.5 out of the ten largest collections is already represented in the Seed Vault collection or is covered by existing deposit agreements. The high coverage of ITPGRFA Annex 1 crops and of those crops for which there is a CGIAR mandate in the current Seed Vault collection indicates that existence of international policies and institutions are important determinants for accessions to be safety duplicated at Svalbard. As a back-up site for the global conservation system, the Seed Vault plays not only a practical but also a symbolic role for enhanced integration and cooperation for conservation of crop diversity. PMID:23671707

  15. Global ex-situ crop diversity conservation and the Svalbard Global Seed Vault: assessing the current status.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ola T Westengen

    Full Text Available Ex-situ conservation of crop diversity is a global concern, and the development of an efficient and sustainable conservation system is a historic priority recognized in international law and policy. We assess the completeness of the safety duplication collection in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault with respect to data on the world's ex-situ collections as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Currently, 774,601 samples are deposited at Svalbard by 53 genebanks. We estimate that more than one third of the globally distinct accessions of 156 crop genera stored in genebanks as orthodox seeds are conserved in the Seed Vault. The numbers of safety duplicates of Triticum (wheat, Sorghum (sorghum, Pennisetum (pearl millet, Eleusine (finger millet, Cicer (chickpea and Lens (lentil exceed 50% of the estimated numbers of distinct accessions in global ex-situ collections. The number of accessions conserved globally generally reflects importance for food production, but there are significant gaps in the safety collection at Svalbard in some genera of high importance for food security in tropical countries, such as Amaranthus (amaranth, Chenopodium (quinoa, Eragrostis (teff and Abelmoschus (okra. In the 29 food-crop genera with the largest number of accessions stored globally, an average of 5.5 out of the ten largest collections is already represented in the Seed Vault collection or is covered by existing deposit agreements. The high coverage of ITPGRFA Annex 1 crops and of those crops for which there is a CGIAR mandate in the current Seed Vault collection indicates that existence of international policies and institutions are important determinants for accessions to be safety duplicated at Svalbard. As a back-up site for the global conservation system, the Seed Vault plays not only a practical but also a symbolic role for enhanced integration and cooperation for conservation of crop diversity.

  16. Accountability for Early Childhood Education (Assessing Global Functioning).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassel, Russell N.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses the pacing of learning activity, knowledge of progress in student learning, teacher role, accountability in learning, feedback on knowledge of success, the global functioning assessment concept, and the mother surrogate. (RS)

  17. Assessing the decennial, reassessing the global:Understanding European Union normative power in global politics

    OpenAIRE

    Manners, Ian James

    2013-01-01

    This concluding article assesses the past decade of international scholarship on the European Union (EU) and normative power as represented by the contributions to the special issue. It argues that the normative power approach (NPA) makes it possible to explain, understand and judge the EU in global politics by rethinking the nature of power and actorness in a globalizing, multilateralizing and multipolarizing era. To do this, the article assesses the past decade in terms of normative power e...

  18. Assessing the global threat from Zika virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessler, Justin; Chaisson, Lelia H; Kucirka, Lauren M; Bi, Qifang; Grantz, Kyra; Salje, Henrik; Carcelen, Andrea C; Ott, Cassandra T; Sheffield, Jeanne S; Ferguson, Neil M; Cummings, Derek A T; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel

    2016-08-12

    First discovered in 1947, Zika virus (ZIKV) infection remained a little-known tropical disease until 2015, when its apparent association with a considerable increase in the incidence of microcephaly in Brazil raised alarms worldwide. There is limited information on the key factors that determine the extent of the global threat from ZIKV infection and resulting complications. Here, we review what is known about the epidemiology, natural history, and public health effects of ZIKV infection, the empirical basis for this knowledge, and the critical knowledge gaps that need to be filled. PMID:27417495

  19. Historical View of the Influences of Measurement and Reading Theories on the Assessment of Reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelhard, George, Jr.

    2001-01-01

    Explores the interactions among measurement theories, reading theories, and measurement practices from a historical perspective. Describes a conceptual framework for examining the assessment of reading and reviews major research traditions in measurement theory in the 20th century. Also provides a brief history of the Rasch measurement theory in…

  20. The global assessment of medical radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    World Health Organization (WHO) is the United Nations specialized agency which acts as a coordinating authority on international public health. It was established in 1948. It has 147 Country Offices, 6 Regional Offices and 193 Member States Ministries of Health Its headquarters is in Geneva. The World Health Assembly (WHA) requested WHO to study the optimum use of ionizing radiation in medicine and the risks to health of excessive or improper use. (WHA, 1971) International Basic Safety Standards BSS) The (BSS) mark the culmination of efforts towards global harmonization of radiation safety requirements. However, the involvement of the health sector in the BSS implementation is still weak and scant. There is a need to mobilize the health sector towards safer and effective use of radiation in medicine. Radiation in Health Care The use of radiation in health care is by far the largest contributor to the exposure of the general population from artificial sources. Annually worldwide there are 3,600 million X-ray exams (> 300 million in children), 37 million nuclear medicine procedures and 7.5 million radiation oncology treatments [UNSCEAR Report 2008]. WHO Global Initiative on Radiation Safety in Health Care Settings Was launched in December 2008 It involved the following:- There was involvement of international organizations and professionals bodies, national health and radiation protection authorities, etc. Its aim is to improve the protection of patients and health care workers through better implementation of the BSS. It complements the International Action Plan for Radiological Protection of Patients established by the IAEA 7 UNSCEAR's medical exposure survey Objectives of UNSCEAR's survey were to facilitate evaluation of: - Global estimates of frequency and levels of exposures, with break-downs by medical procedure, age, sex, health care level, and country; - Trends in practice (including those relatively fast-changing); with supporting contextual

  1. Repoliticizing Higher Education Assessment within Neoliberal Globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hursh, David; Wall, Andrew F.

    2011-01-01

    This article shows how universities, like education and social services in general, are increasingly pressured to adopt neoliberal principles that encourage privatization, entrepreneurship, standardization, assessment, and accountability. The authors examine recent efforts in the United States to develop measurement and accountability systems that…

  2. Assessing the decennial, reassessing the global

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manners, Ian James

    2013-01-01

    This concluding article assesses the past decade of international scholarship on the European Union (EU) and normative power as represented by the contributions to the special issue. It argues that the normative power approach (NPA) makes it possible to explain, understand and judge the EU in...

  3. Long-term evolution of the global carbon cycle: historic minimum of global surface temperature at presen

    OpenAIRE

    Franck, Siegfried; Kossacki, Konrad J.; Von Bloth, Werner; Bounama, Christine

    2002-01-01

    We present a minimal model for the global carbon cycle of the Earth containing the reservoirs mantle, ocean floor, continental crust, continental biosphere, and the kerogen, as well as the aggregated reservoir ocean and atmosphere. This model is coupled to a parameterised mantle convection model for describing the thermal and degassing history of the Earth. In this study the evolution of the mean global surface temperature, the biomass, and reservoir sizes over the whole history and future of...

  4. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  5. Historical seismicity in France. Its role in the assessment of seismic risk on French nuclear sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since 1975 in order to be in conformity with the requirements of the French nuclear program, a review of historical seismicity was undertaken in France. The assessment of seismic hazard for the safety of nuclear plants is in fact based upon a seismotectonic approach which needs to take into account the seismic activity over as long a period of time as possible. The method adopted for reviewing historical earthquakes entails a systematic consultation of the original sources and a critical analysis there of in the light of the historical, geographical and political contexts of the time. The same standards apply where the acquisition of new elements of information is involved. Each item of information is assigned a degree of reliability, then compiled in a computer file, up-dated annually; this file currently contains more than 4.500 events covering a period of time of about a millenary

  6. A global water scarcity assessment under shared socio-economic pathways – Part 1: Water use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Masui

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs, which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment, and climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect the key concepts underpinning each situation. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigation area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, industrial water withdrawal, and municipal water withdrawal. The first three factors are used to estimate agricultural water withdrawal. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century at 5-yr intervals. Each factor displays a wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigation area in 2085 varies between 270 and 450 km2, industrial water between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and domestic water withdrawal between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments by identifying the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyzing the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

  7. The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vose, R.S. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center); Schmoyer, R.L. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)); Steurer, P.M.; Peterson, T.C.; Heim, R.; Karl, T.R. (National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States)); Eischeid, J.K. (Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences)

    1992-07-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the last several years. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, these data sets have been compiled by many different organizations/researchers, making it confusing and time consuming for individual researchers to acquire the best'' data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) commenced the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved global base-line data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for a dense network. of worldwide meteorological stations. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global climate data base that can be updated, enhanced, and distributed at regular intervals. The first version of the GHCN data base was completed during the summer of 1992. It contains 6039 temperature, 7533 precipitation, 1883 sea level pressure, and 1873 station pressure stations. All stations have at least 10 years of data, 40% have more than 50 years of data, and 10% have more than 100 years of data. Spatial coverage is good over most of the globe, particularly for the United States and central Europe. In comparison to other major global data sets, dramatic improvements are evident over South America, Africa, and Asia. The GHCN data base is available as a Numeric Data Package (NDP) from CDIAC. The NDP consists of this document and two magnetic tapes that contain machine-readable data files and accompanying retrieval codes. This document describes, in detail, both the GHCN data base and the contents of the magnetic tap

  8. The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vose, R.S. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center; Schmoyer, R.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Steurer, P.M.; Peterson, T.C.; Heim, R.; Karl, T.R. [National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States); Eischeid, J.K. [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences

    1992-07-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the last several years. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, these data sets have been compiled by many different organizations/researchers, making it confusing and time consuming for individual researchers to acquire the ``best`` data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) commenced the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved global base-line data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for a dense network. of worldwide meteorological stations. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global climate data base that can be updated, enhanced, and distributed at regular intervals. The first version of the GHCN data base was completed during the summer of 1992. It contains 6039 temperature, 7533 precipitation, 1883 sea level pressure, and 1873 station pressure stations. All stations have at least 10 years of data, 40% have more than 50 years of data, and 10% have more than 100 years of data. Spatial coverage is good over most of the globe, particularly for the United States and central Europe. In comparison to other major global data sets, dramatic improvements are evident over South America, Africa, and Asia. The GHCN data base is available as a Numeric Data Package (NDP) from CDIAC. The NDP consists of this document and two magnetic tapes that contain machine-readable data files and accompanying retrieval codes. This document describes, in detail, both the GHCN data base and the contents of the magnetic tap

  9. Assessment of Missouri River floodplain invertebrates during historic inundation: implications for river restoration

    OpenAIRE

    Gosch N.J.C.; Miller M.L.; Dzialowski A.R.; Morris D.M.; Gemeinhardt T.R.; Bonneau J.L.

    2014-01-01

    Floodplain connectivity is important to aquatic organisms in large rivers. Anthropogenic alterations regulating the Missouri River have limited connectivity and negatively affected native fauna. Determining the biological response to rare inundation events may be important when considering potential restoration options on a regulated river; thus, we assessed benthic invertebrate and zooplankton communities at three floodplain sites during a historic Missouri River high-water event. Chironomid...

  10. Earthquake performance assessment and rehabilitation of two historical unreinforced masonry buildings

    OpenAIRE

    HANCILAR UFUK; CAKTI Eser; ERDIK Mustafa

    2011-01-01

    The paper describes the earthquake performance assessment of two historical buildings located in Istanbul exposed to a Mw=7+ earthquake expected to hit the city and proposes solutions for their structural rehabilitation and/or strengthening. Both buildings are unreinforced clay brick masonry (URM) structures built in 1869 and 1885, respectively. The first building is a rectan-gular-shaped structure rising on four floors. The second one is L-shaped with one basement and three normal floors abo...

  11. Assessment of Retrofitting Measures for a Large Historic Research Facility Using a Building Energy Simulation Model

    OpenAIRE

    Young Tae Chae; Lee, Young M.; David Longinott

    2016-01-01

    A calibrated building simulation model was developed to assess the energy performance of a large historic research building. The complexity of space functions and operational conditions with limited availability of energy meters makes it hard to understand the end-used energy consumption in detail and to identify appropriate retrofitting options for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An energy simulation model was developed to study the energy usage patterns not o...

  12. Dismantling the Afghan Opiate economy a cultural and historical policy assessment, with policy recommendations

    OpenAIRE

    Byrom, Christopher L.

    2005-01-01

    This thesis applies lessons drawn from a historical-cultural analysis of rural power structures in Afghanistan to understand the nature of the threat posed by that country's opiate economy and to assess the counter-narcotics policies of the United Kingdom, the Government(s) of Afghanistan, and the United States. It argues that that the opiate economy should be considered an Afghan-specific problem involving narcotics, not a "drug war" problem involving Afghanistan. Specific lessons are taken ...

  13. Breast cancer risk and historical exposure to pesticides from wide-area applications assessed with GIS.

    OpenAIRE

    Brody, Julia Green; Aschengrau, Ann; McKelvey, Wendy; Rudel, Ruthann A.; Swartz, Christopher H.; Kennedy, Theresa

    2004-01-01

    Pesticides are of interest in etiologic studies of breast cancer because many mimic estrogen, a known breast cancer risk factor, or cause mammary tumors in animals, but most previous studies have been limited by using one-time tissue measurements of residues of only a few pesticides long banned in the United States. As an alternative method to assess historical exposures to banned and current-use pesticides, we used geographic information system (GIS) technology in a population-based case-con...

  14. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    CERN Document Server

    Mercure, J F

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary mate...

  15. Exploring the Potential Impacts of Historic Volcanic Eruptions on the Contemporary Global Food System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, Michael J.; Chon, S.; Wada, Y.

    2015-01-01

    A better understanding of volcanic impacts on crops is urgently needed, as volcanic eruptions and the associated climate anomalies can cause unanticipated shocks to food production. Such shocks are a major concern given the fragility of the global food system.

  16. Limitless Learning: Assessing Social Media Use for Global Workplace Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breunig, Karl Joachim

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This empirical paper aims to assess how social media can foster workplace learning within a globally dispersed project environment. In general, there are few studies on the use of social media in organizations, and many of these emphasize on issues related to knowledge transfer. Although learning traditionally has been as acquisition of…

  17. Assessing tourism's global environmental impact 1900–2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gössling, Stefan; Peeters, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This paper pioneers the assessment of tourism's total global resource use, including its fossil fuel consumption, associated CO2 emissions, fresh water, land, and food use. As tourism is a dynamic growth system, characterized by rapidly increasing tourist numbers, understanding its pas

  18. A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature

    CERN Document Server

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    Herein we show that the historical records of mid-latitude auroras from 1700 to 1966 present oscillations with periods of about 9, 10-11, 20-21, 30 and 60 years. The same frequencies are found in proxy and instrumental global surface temperature records since 1650 and 1850, respectively and in several planetary and solar records. Thus, the aurora records reveal a physical link between climate change and astronomical oscillations. Likely, there exists a modulation of the cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth and/or of the electric properties of the ionosphere. The latter, in turn, have the potentiality of modulating the global cloud cover that ultimately drives the climate oscillations through albedo oscillations. In particular, a quasi 60-year large cycle is quite evident since 1650 in all climate and astronomical records herein studied, which also include an historical record of meteorite fall in China from 619 to 1943. These findings support the thesis that climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. We ...

  19. A framework for global river flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Bouwman, A.; Ward, P. J.; Jongman, B.

    2012-04-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks. Such assessments may be required by: (a) International Financing Institutes and Disaster Management Agencies to evaluate where, when, and which investments in flood risk mitigation are most required; (b) (re-)insurers, who need to determine their required coverage capital; and (c) large companies to account for risks of regional investments. In this contribution, we propose a framework for global river flood risk assessment. The framework combines coarse scale resolution hazard probability distributions, derived from global hydrological model runs (typical scale about 0.5 degree resolution) with high resolution estimates of exposure indicators. The high resolution is required because floods typically occur at a much smaller scale than the typical resolution of global hydrological models, and exposure indicators such as population, land use and economic value generally are strongly variable in space and time. The framework therefore estimates hazard at a high resolution ( 1 km2) by using a) global forcing data sets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate; b) a global hydrological model; c) a global flood routing model, and d) importantly, a flood spatial downscaling routine. This results in probability distributions of annual flood extremes as an indicator of flood hazard, at the appropriate resolution. A second component of the framework combines the hazard probability distribution with classical flood impact models (e.g. damage, affected GDP, affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk. The framework can be applied with a large number of datasets and models and sensitivities of such choices can be evaluated by the user. The framework is applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, combined with a global flood routing model. Downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution is performed with a new downscaling algorithm, applied

  20. International Global Crop Condition Assessments in the framework of GEOGLAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Vermote, E.; Whitcraft, A. K.; Claverie, M.

    2013-12-01

    The Group on Earth Observations (partnership of governments and international organizations) developed the Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative in response to the growing calls for improved agricultural information. The goal of GEOGLAM is to strengthen the international community's capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate forecasts of agricultural production at national, regional and global scales through the use of Earth observations. This initiative is designed to build on existing agricultural monitoring initiatives at national, regional and global levels and to enhance and strengthen them through international networking, operationally focused research, and data/method sharing. GEOGLAM was adopted by the G20 as part of the action plan on food price volatility and agriculture and is being implemented through building on the extensive GEO Agricultural Community of Practice (CoP) that was initiated in 2007 and includes key national and international agencies, organizations, and universities involved in agricultural monitoring. One of the early GEOGLAM activities is to provide harmonized global crop outlooks that offer timely qualitative consensus information on crop status and prospects. This activity is being developed in response to a request from the G-20 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and is implemented within the global monitoring systems component of GEOGLAM. The goal is to develop a transparent, international, multi-source, consensus assessment of crop growing conditions, status, and agro-climatic conditions, likely to impact global production. These assessments are focused on the four primary crop types (corn, wheat, soy and rice) within the main agricultural producing regions of the world. The GEOGLAM approach is to bring together international experts from global, regional and national monitoring systems that can share and discuss information from a variety of independent complementary sources in

  1. The ISA-MIP Historical Eruption SO2 Emissions Assessment (HErSEA): an intercomparison for interactive stratospheric aerosol models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Graham; Dhomse, Sandip; Sheng, Jianxiong; Mills, Mike

    2016-04-01

    ). To allow the global variation in size distribution to also be intercompared, models will also diagnose 3D-monthly effective radius and integrated concentrations of particles with radius larger than 10nm, 150nm and 500nm. The mini-ensemble is designed to be straighforward to assess several historical major eruptions and will be a precursor to the larger perturbed parameter ensemble study of the Pinatubo eruption (PoEMS) which will more rigorously assess sources of uncertainty in volcanic forcings simulated by the different models.

  2. Standing tree assessment for the maintenance of historic wooden buildings: a case study of a World Heritage site in China

    OpenAIRE

    Yin W; Yamamoto H.

    2013-01-01

    Historic wooden buildings are a symbol of China’s “culture of wood” and require extraction of forest resources for their renovation. In the 21st century, natural resources are limited globally, and sustainable solutions are needed. In this study, we established a new method to connect building and forest sites for efficient utilization of limited forest resources for the renovation of historic buildings. We obtained measurements of large wooden components from Shenyang Imperial Palace. We als...

  3. Five-Year NRHP Re-Evaluation of Historic Buildings Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ullrich, R A; Heidecker, K R

    2011-09-12

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) 'Draft Programmatic Agreement among the Department of Energy and the California State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Operation of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory' requires a review and re-evaluation of the eligibility of laboratory properties for the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) every five years. The original evaluation was published in 2005; this report serves as the first five-year re-evaluation. This re-evaluation includes consideration of changes within LLNL to management, to mission, and to the built environment. it also determines the status of those buildings, objects, and districts that were recommended as NRHP-eligible in the 2005 report. Buildings that were omitted from the earlier building list, those that have reached 50 years of age since the original assessment, and new buildings are also addressed in the re-evaluation.

  4. Seismic Behavior Assessment of The Historical Tomb of Sheikh Shahabedin Ahary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Pouraminian

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate failure mechanism of historical tomb of Shahab-edin Ahary elements and determines areas prone to structural failure. Since Ahar is one of the most earthquake-prone cities of Iran with relative risk of large earthquakes, the presence of multiple faults in this area as well as historical, cultural and tourism importance of the building, makes its vulnerability assessments and retrofitting inevitable. Because of low adhesion strength of masonry used in the building and regarding its vulnerability records on previous earthquakes, the building seems weak against relatively intense earthquakes. The aim of this study is to investigate vulnerability of this building against possible earthquakes. Selected earthquakes for seismic loading are modified for the maximum horizontal acceleration obtained for this region. Various results have been studied after utilize finite element model using Ansys software and various analyses.

  5. Historical Land-Cover Change and Land-Use Conversions Global Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A set of three estimates of land-cover types and annual transformations of land use are provided on a global 0.5 x0.5 degree lat/lon grid at annual time steps. The...

  6. Historical legacies accumulate to shape future biodiversity in an era of rapid global change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Essl, F.; Dullinger, S.; Rabitsch, W.; Hulme, P. E.; Pyšek, Petr; Wilson, J. R. U.; Richardson, D. M.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 5 (2015), s. 534-547. ISSN 1366-9516 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36079G Grant ostatní: AV ČR(CZ) Praemium Academiae Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : biological invasions * global change * time lags Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.667, year: 2014

  7. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. -- Highlights: ► Global energy potentials for all major energy resources are reported. ► Theory and methodology for calculating economic energy potentials is given. ► An uncertainty analysis for all energy economic potentials is carried out.

  8. New Directions in Assessment: Using Library of Congress Sources to Assess Historical Understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wineburg, Sam; Smith, Mark; Breakstone, Joel

    2012-01-01

    Research has shown that formative assessment is a key ingredient in raising student achievement. The goal of formative assessment is not to grade students, but to pinpoint where they are having trouble and then to take appropriate instructional action. In a review of 250 studies, Black and Wiliam found that formative assessments had a more…

  9. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourdji, Sharon M.; Sibley, Adam M.; Lobell, David B.

    2013-06-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (Tcrit), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980-2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and Tcrit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for Tcrit. Increasing Tcrit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over Tcrit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over Tcrit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over Tcrit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a global basis

  10. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (Tcrit), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and Tcrit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for Tcrit. Increasing Tcrit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over Tcrit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over Tcrit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over Tcrit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a global

  11. Historical Background on the Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RECHARD, ROBERT P

    1999-10-21

    In 1979, six years after selecting the Delaware Basin as a potential disposal area, Congress authorized the U.S. Department of Energy to build the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, as a Research and development facility for the safe management storage, and disposal of waste contaminated with transuranic radioisotopes. In 1998, 19 years after authorization and after site selection, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified that the WIPP disposal system complied with its regulations. The EPA's decision was primarily based on the results from a performance. assessment conducted in 1996, which is summarized in this special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety. This performance assessment was the culmination of four preliminary performance assessments conducted between 1989 and 1992. This paper provides a historical setting and context for how the performance of the deep geologic repository at the WIPP was analyzed. Also included is background on political forces acting on the project.

  12. Historical Background on the Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 1979, six years after selecting the Delaware Basin as a potential disposal area, Congress authorized the U.S. Department of Energy to build the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, as a Research and development facility for the safe management storage, and disposal of waste contaminated with transuranic radioisotopes. In 1998, 19 years after authorization and after site selection, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified that the WIPP disposal system complied with its regulations. The EPA's decision was primarily based on the results from a performance. assessment conducted in 1996, which is summarized in this special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety. This performance assessment was the culmination of four preliminary performance assessments conducted between 1989 and 1992. This paper provides a historical setting and context for how the performance of the deep geologic repository at the WIPP was analyzed. Also included is background on political forces acting on the project

  13. Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Valenzuela, Ernesto; Hertel, Thomas; Keeney, Roman; Reimer, Jeff

    2005-01-01

    Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are commonly used for global agricultural market analysis. However, concerns are sometimes raised about the quality of their output since key parameters may not be econometrically estimated and little emphasis is generally given to model assessment. This article addresses the latter issue by developing an approach to validating CGE models based on the ability to reproduce observed price volatility in agricultural markets. We show how patterns in the...

  14. Global assessment of deforestation related to tobacco farming

    OpenAIRE

    Geist, H.

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVES—To assess the global amount of forest and woodland consumed annually for curing tobacco between 1990 and 1995; to estimate tobacco's share in total deforestation; to rank tobacco-growing countries by the degree of impact of tobacco deforestation; and to indicate environmental criticality emerging from tobacco's impact on forest resources. 
DESIGN—Production of country-specific estimates of forests/woodlands needed and depleted on the basis of growing stock/increment of woody biomas...

  15. Assessing bias associated with geocoding of historical residence in epidemiology research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daikwon Han

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The use of geocoded historical residence as proxy for retrospective assessment of exposure in early life is increasing in epidemiological studies of chronic health outcomes. Dealing with historical residence poses challenges, primarily due to higher uncertainties associated with data collection and processing. A possible source of bias is connected with the exclusion of subjects, who cannot, for various reasons, be geocoded. We evaluated the potential bias that may arise due to incomplete geocoding, using birth residence data collected as part of a population-based case-control study of breast cancer in western New York state. We found that geocoded and non-geocoded populations did not differ in the distribution of most risk factors compared, and that the geocoding status did not modify the spatial patterns of the study populations. However, the results emphasize the need for epidemiological studies to consider the potential biases that may be introduced by geocoding of historical residence when investigating retrospectively chronic disease and early-life exposure.

  16. Historical relationship between performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal and other types of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed until the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built on methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty

  17. Counterfeit Drug Penetration into Global Legitimate Medicine Supply Chains: A Global Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Mackey, Tim K.; Liang, Bryan A.; York, Peter; Kubic, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Counterfeit medicines are a global public health risk. We assess counterfeit reports involving the legitimate supply chain using 2009–2011 data from the Pharmaceutical Security Institute Counterfeit Incident System (PSI CIS) database that uses both open and nonpublic data sources. Of the 1,510 identified CIS reports involving counterfeits, 27.6% reported China as the source country of the incident/detection. Further, 51.3% were reported as counterfeit but the specific counterfeit subcategory ...

  18. PIRACY REGULATION AND THE FILIPINO’S HISTORICAL RESPONSE TO GLOBALIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    Rolando B. Tolentino

    2009-01-01

    The essay examines the racial discourse of Moros and Moro-profiling by the state in piracy—sea piracy in olden times and media piracy in contemporary times. Moro piracy becomes a local cosmopolitanism in the Philippines’ attempt to integrate in various eras of global capitalism. From the analysis of media piracy, the Moro “dibidi” (pirated DVD) seller becomes the body that mediates between the Filipinos’ middle-class fantasy of a branded lifestyle and the reality that most Filipinos do not ha...

  19. A global human health risk assessment for Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franzen, Allison; Van Landingham, Cynthia; Greene, Tracy; Plotzke, Kathy; Gentry, Robinan

    2016-02-01

    Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) is a low-molecular-weight cyclic siloxane used primarily as an intermediate in the production of several widely-used industrial and consumer products and intentionally added to consumer products, personal products and some dry cleaning solvents. The global use requires consideration of consumer use information and risk assessment requirements from various sources and authoritative bodies. A global "harmonized" risk assessment was conducted to meet requirements for substance-specific risk assessments conducted by regulatory agencies such as USEPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), Health Canada and various independent scientific committees of the European Commission, as well as provide guidance for chemical safety assessments under REACH in Europe, and other relevant authoritative bodies. This risk assessment incorporates global exposure information combined with a Monte Carlo analysis to determine the most significant routes of exposure, utilization of a multi-species, multi-route physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to estimate internal dose metrics, benchmark modeling to determine a point of departure (POD), and a margin of safety (MOS) evaluation to compare the estimates of intake with the POD. Because of the specific pharmacokinetic behaviors of D5 including high lipophilicity, high volatility with low blood-to-air partition coefficients and extensive metabolic clearance that regulate tissue dose after exposure, the use of a PBPK model was essential to provide a comparison of a dose metric that reflects these processes. The characterization of the potential for adverse effects after exposure to D5 using a MOS approach based on an internal dose metric removes the subjective application of uncertainty factors that may be applied across various regulatory agencies and allows examination of the differences between internal dose metrics associated with exposure and those associated with adverse effects. PMID

  20. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  1. Sustainability assessment, rating systems and historical buildings Case study: Rehabilitated construction in a university site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadrykia Somayeh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the relationship between the indicators and different factors that “rating systems for green projects” concentrates on, and principles and factors considered in the rehabilitation of historical buildings. In recent years, different methods and systems concerned and improved for assessing environmental sustainability. LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design and BREEAM (Building Research Establishment (BRE Environmental Assessment Method are two most commonly used rating systems, established in U.S and UK. These systems comprise some categories and different factors to achieve environmentally responsible design. Firstly, this study focuses on the list of rating systems indicators and criteria. Secondly this paper investigates a historical rehabilitated building in the site of Tabriz Art University, as a case study and has tried to compile its green design elements. Finally, this work intends to compare mentioned elements with indicators and factors of building rating systems. Findings of the study revealed that “Materials and Resources”, “indoor environmental quality” and also “Sustainable Sites” ,the most significant indicator of rating systems, had major and important role in the rehabilitation of the building. Beyond this materials’ life cycle was considerable in construction.

  2. Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  3. Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: incorporation of probability distributions and hydro-climatic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-02-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR’s definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  4. Global Changes and Drivers of the Water Footprint of Food Consumption: A Historical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Yang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Water is one of the most important limiting resources for food production. How much water is needed for food depends on the size of the population, average food consumption patterns and food production per unit of water. These factors show large differences around the world. This paper analyzes sub-continental dynamics of the water footprint of consumption (WFcons for the prevailing diets from 1961 to 2009 using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO. The findings show that, in most regions, the water needed to feed one person decreased even if diets became richer, because of the increase in water use efficiency in food production during the past half-century. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI decomposition approach is used to analyze the contributions of the major drivers of WFcons for food: population, diet and agricultural practices (output per unit of water. We compare the contributions of these drivers through different subcontinents, and find that population growth still was the major driver behind increasing WFcons for food until now and that potential water savings through agricultural practice improvements were offset by population growth and diet change. The changes of the factors mentioned above were the largest in most developing areas with rapid economic development. With the development of globalization, the international food trade has brought more and more water savings in global water use over time. The results indicate that, in the near future and in many regions, diet change is likely to override population growth as the major driver behind WFcons for food.

  5. The global historical and future economic loss and cost of earthquakes during the production of adaptive worldwide economic fragility functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    macroseismic intensity, capital stock estimate, GDP estimate, year and the combined seismic building index (a created combination of the global seismic code index, building practice factor, building age and infrastructure vulnerability). The analysis provided three key results: a) The production of economic fragility functions from the 1900-2008 events showed very good correlation to the economic loss and cost from earthquakes from 2009-2013, in real-time. This methodology has been extended to other natural disaster types (typhoon, flood, drought). b) The reanalysis of historical earthquake events in order to check associated historical loss and costs versus the expected exposure in terms of intensities. The 1939 Chillan, 1948 Turkmenistan, 1950 Iran, 1972 Managua, 1980 Western Nepal and 1992 Erzincan earthquake events were seen as huge outliers compared with the modelled capital stock and GDP and thus additional studies were undertaken to check the original loss results. c) A worldwide GIS layer database of capital stock (gross and net), GDP, infrastructure age and economic indices over the period 1900-2013 have been created in conjunction with the CATDAT database in order to define correct economic loss and costs.

  6. Assessment of global phase uncertainty in case-control studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Houwelingen Hans C

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In haplotype-based candidate gene studies a problem is that the genotype data are unphased, which results in haplotype ambiguity. The measure 1 quantifies haplotype predictability from genotype data. It is computed for each individual haplotype, and for a measure of global relative efficiency a minimum value is suggested. Alternatively, we developed methods directly based on the information content of haplotype frequency estimates to obtain global relative efficiency measures: and based on A- and D-optimality, respectively. All three methods are designed for single populations; they can be applied in cases only, controls only or the whole data. Therefore they are not necessarily optimal for haplotype testing in case-control studies. Results A new global relative efficiency measure was derived to maximize power of a simple test statistic that compares haplotype frequencies in cases and controls. Application to real data showed that our proposed method gave a clear and summarizing measure for the case-control study conducted. Additionally this measure might be used for selection of individuals, who have the highest potential for improving power by resolving phase ambiguity. Conclusion Instead of using relative efficiency measure for cases only, controls only or their combined data, we link uncertainty measure to case-control studies directly. Hence, our global efficiency measure might be useful to assess whether data are informative or have enough power for estimation of a specific haplotype risk.

  7. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP - 1992/1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Giardini

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations, recognizing natural disasters as a major threat to human life and development, designed the 1990-1999 period as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR; UN Res. 42/169/ 1987. Among the IDNDR Demonstration Projects is the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP and implemented in the 1992-1999 period. In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation. To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP established initially a mosaic of regions and multinational test areas, then expanded to cover whole continents and finally the globe. The GSHAP Global Map of Seismic Hazard integrates the results obtained in the regional areas and depicts Peak-Ground-Acceleration (PGA with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years. All regional results and the Global Map of Seismic Hazard are published in 1999 and available on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.

  8. Assessment of global annual atmospheric energy balance from satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Bing; Stackhouse, Paul W.; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Hu, Yongxiang; Sun, Wenbo; Fan, Tai-Fang; Hinkelman, Laura M.

    2008-08-01

    Global atmospheric energy balance is one of the fundamental processes for the earth's climate system. This study uses currently available satellite data sets of radiative energy at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface as well as latent and sensible heat over the oceans for the year 2000 to assess the global annual energy budget. Over land, surface radiation data are used to constrain assimilated results and to force the radiation, turbulent heat, and heat storage into balance due to a lack of observation-based turbulent heat flux estimates. Global annual means of the TOA net radiation obtained from both satellite direct measurements and calculations are close to zero. The net radiative energy fluxes into the surface and the surface latent heat transported into the atmosphere are about 113 and 86 W/m2, respectively. The estimated atmospheric and surface heat imbalances are about -8 and 9 W/m2, respectively, values that are within the uncertainties of surface radiation and sea surface turbulent flux estimates and the likely systematic biases in the analyzed observations. The potential significant additional absorption of solar radiation within the atmosphere suggested by previous studies does not appear to be required to balance the energy budget: the spurious heat imbalances in the current data are much smaller (about half) than those obtained previously and debated about a decade ago. Progress in surface radiation and oceanic turbulent heat flux estimations from satellite measurements has significantly reduced the bias errors in the observed global energy budgets of the climate system.

  9. Assessment of Global Annual Atmospheric Energy Balance from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Bing; Stackhouse, Paul; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Hu, Yongxiang; Sun, Wenbo; Fan, Tai-Fang (Alice); Hinkelman, Laura

    2008-01-01

    Global atmospheric energy balance is one of the fundamental processes for the earth's climate system. This study uses currently available satellite data sets of radiative energy at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface and latent and sensible heat over oceans for the year 2000 to assess the global annual energy budget. Over land, surface radiation data are used to constrain assimilated results and to force the radiation, turbulent heat, and heat storage into balance due to a lack of observation-based turbulent heat flux estimations. Global annual means of the TOA net radiation obtained from both direct measurements and calculations are close to zero. The net radiative energy fluxes into the surface and the surface latent heat transported into the atmosphere are about 113 and 86 Watts per square meter, respectively. The estimated atmospheric and surface heat imbalances are about -8 9 Watts per square meter, values that are within the uncertainties of surface radiation and sea surface turbulent flux estimates and likely systematic biases in the analyzed observations. The potential significant additional absorption of solar radiation within the atmosphere suggested by previous studies does not appear to be required to balance the energy budget the spurious heat imbalances in the current data are much smaller (about half) than those obtained previously and debated at about a decade ago. Progress in surface radiation and oceanic turbulent heat flux estimations from satellite measurements significantly reduces the bias errors in the observed global energy budgets of the climate system.

  10. Lithium Resources and Production: Critical Assessment and Global Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve H. Mohr

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper critically assesses if accessible lithium resources are sufficient for expanded demand due to lithium battery electric vehicles. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR of lithium globally were estimated at between 19.3 (Case 1 and 55.0 (Case 3 Mt Li; Best Estimate (BE was 23.6 Mt Li. The Mohr 2010 model was modified to project lithium supply. The Case 1 URR scenario indicates sufficient lithium for a 77% maximum penetration of lithium battery electric vehicles in 2080 whereas supply is adequate to beyond 2200 in the Case 3 URR scenario. Global lithium demand approached a maximum of 857 kt Li/y, with a 100% penetration of lithium vehicles, 3.5 people per car and 10 billion population.

  11. Impact of global seismicity on sea level change assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Melini, D

    2005-01-01

    We analyze the effect of seismic activity on sealevel variations, by computing the time-dependent vertical crustal movement and geoid change due to coseismic deformations and postseismic relaxation effects. Seismic activity can affect both the absolute sealevel, by changing the Earth gravity field and hence the geoid height, and the relative sealevel, i.e. the radial distance between seafloor and geoid level. By using comprehensive seismic catalogues we assess the net effect of seismicity on tidal relative sealevel measurements as well as on the global oceanic surfaces, and we obtain an estimate of absolute sealevel variations of seismic origin. Our results confirm that, on a global scale, most of the signal is associated with few giant thrust events, and that RSL estimates obtained using tide-gauge data can be sensibly affected by the seismic driven sealevel signal. The recent measures of sealevel obtained by satellite altimetry show a wide regional variation of sealevel trends over the oceanic surfaces, wit...

  12. Measurement of Nagasaki Pu global transport rates, comparing with SO2 from historic volcanic eruptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An artificial single dose contaminant was released at Nagasaki, Japan on August 9, 1945, detonating plutonium (10-15 kg) atomic bomb. A portion, 1,2 kg of 239Pu was fissioned releasing 21 kt TNT energy along with various fission products. The rest of the unexpended fissile material, 239+240Pu, 13.8 kg (3.49 x 1013 Bq), was dispersed into the atmosphere along with a fission product, 137Cs, 23.4 g (7.44 x 1013 Bq). The fate of 239+240Pu and 137Cs was investigated by analysing both local and global fallout. The highest concentration of 239+240Pu was 64.5 mBq/g (181 mBq/cm2) while it was 188 mBq/g (526 mBq/cm2) for 137Cs both at 2.8 km east from the hypocentre. The total amount of deposition in the local fallout region of 264 km2 was 37.5 g (9.48 x 1010Bq) for 239+240Pu and 3.14 mg (5.88 x 1010Bq) for 137Cs. The ratio of the local fallout against the total amount of the radionuclides released was 0.27 % for 239+240Pu and 0.134% for 137Cs. Recent advancements in analytical technology made it possible for artificial radionuclides released from the Nagasaki explosion to be detected in the Arctic ice core layer of 1945. The 239+240Pu and the 137Cs, were measured by collecting 10 ice cores on the Agassiz ice cap, Ellesmere Island, Canada. The deposition was 0.16 μBq/cm2 for 239+240Pu and 20 μBq/cm2 for 137Cs. During the atmospheric testing, the deposition of 239+240Pu and 137Cs varied more than 100 times with the highest peaks of over 50 μBq/cm2 for 239+240Pu and over 800 μBq/cm2 for 137Cs both occurred in 1962. Analyzing Arctic data, there are many new information for long global transport, the history of nuclear weapons development etc. (author)

  13. Assessing Naturalness in Northern Great Lakes Forests Based on Historical Land-Cover and Vegetation Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimmi, Urs; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2013-08-01

    The concept of naturalness was developed to assess to what degree landscapes represent a natural state. Protected areas are often regarded as the remnants of untouched landscapes although many landscapes commonly perceived as pristine have a long history of human impact. Here, we introduced a historical perspective into the concept of naturalness and the analysis of the effectiveness of protected areas by analyzing historical trajectories in land-cover and forest communities for the Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore on Michigan's Upper Peninsula (USA). Distribution of land-cover and forest community types was reconstructed for pre-settlement time (around 1850), the height of agricultural expansion (1928), and modern conditions (2000). Naturalness of the landscape was assessed by analyzing similarity between pre-settlement and current conditions and by assessing landscape continuity (1850-1928-2000). We compared changes in the strictly protected park core zone with those in the inland buffer zone with ongoing sustainable logging, and a not protected area adjacent to the park. Forest was the dominant land-cover type over the entire study period. We detected a gradient in land-cover continuity from the core zone (81 % continuity) to the inland buffer zone (74 %) and the area outside the park (66 %). Northern hardwood was the dominating forest type in all time points with high continuity (76 %). In contrast, pine forests show a more dynamic pattern with more than 50 % of the initial forests switching to non-forest or early succession forest types by 1928. More than half of the study area was considered as "natural virgin" (no changes in land-cover and forest community type) with a higher portion within the park than in the adjacent area. In contrast, areas with low naturalness are more abundant outside the park. Our study demonstrates the value of integrating historical information into naturalness assessments and the results provide useful information for future park

  14. Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Richard; Schulp, Catharina J E; Hengeveld, Geerten M; Verburg, Peter H; Clevers, Jan G P W; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Herold, Martin

    2016-07-01

    Legacy effects of land cover/use on carbon fluxes require considering both present and past land cover/use change dynamics. To assess past land use dynamics, model-based reconstructions of historic land cover/use are needed. Most historic reconstructions consider only the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). Studies about the impact of gross and net land change accounting methods on the carbon balance are still lacking. In this study, we assessed historic changes in carbon in soils for five land cover/use types and of carbon in above-ground biomass of forests. The assessment focused on Europe for the period 1950 to 2010 with decadal time steps at 1-km spatial resolution using a bookkeeping approach. To assess the implications of gross land change data, we also used net land changes for comparison. Main contributors to carbon sequestration between 1950 and 2010 were afforestation and cropland abandonment leading to 14.6 PgC sequestered carbon (of which 7.6 PgC was in forest biomass). Sequestration was highest for old-growth forest areas. A sequestration dip was reached during the 1970s due to changes in forest management practices. Main contributors to carbon emissions were deforestation (1.7 PgC) and stable cropland areas on peaty soils (0.8 PgC). In total, net fluxes summed up to 203 TgC yr(-1) (98 TgC yr(-1) in forest biomass and 105 TgC yr(-1) in soils). For areas that were subject to land changes in both reconstructions (35% of total area), the differences in carbon fluxes were about 68%. Overall for Europe the difference between accounting for either gross or net land changes led to 7% difference (up to 11% per decade) in carbon fluxes with systematically higher fluxes for gross land change data. PMID:26668087

  15. Global Aquaculture Performance Index (GAPI: The First Global Environmental Assessment of Marine Fish Farming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenna M.S. Stoner

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available “Sustainable” is among the most sought after of all seafood product adjectives. Ironically it is also one of the most poorly defined and understood. The Global Aquaculture Performance Index (GAPI is the first tool to assess environmental performance of global marine aquaculture production, permitting direct comparison of disparate species, production methods and jurisdictions. Clear patterns emerge from this analysis; significant variation of environmental performance is driven by the species being farmed, significant room for improvement exists across the entire sector, the worst performing players are also the fastest growing, particularly within Asia, and perhaps most importantly, this work highlights the potential trap awaiting policy makers who focus too narrowly on farm production efficiency alone as a solution to diminishing seafood availability.

  16. Using the CLM Crop Model to assess the impacts of changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Geographic Distribution on Historical and Future Crop Yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P.

    2015-12-01

    Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate

  17. Correlating regional natural hazards for global reinsurance risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steptoe, Hamish; Maynard, Trevor; Economou, Theo; Fox, Helen; Wallace, Emily; Maisey, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Concurrent natural hazards represent an uncertainty in assessing exposure for the insurance industry. The recently implemented Solvency II Directive requires EU insurance companies to fully understand and justify their capital reserving and portfolio decisions. Lloyd's, the London insurance and reinsurance market, commissioned the Met Office to investigate the dependencies between different global extreme weather events (known to the industry as perils), and the mechanisms for these dependencies, with the aim of helping them assess their compound risk to the exposure of multiple simultaneous hazards. In this work, we base the analysis of hazard-to-hazard dependency on the interaction of different modes of global and regional climate variability. Lloyd's defined 16 key hazard regions, including Australian wildfires, flooding in China and EU windstorms, and we investigate the impact of 10 key climate modes on these areas. We develop a statistical model that facilitates rapid risk assessment whilst allowing for both temporal auto-correlation and, crucially, interdependencies between drivers. The simulator itself is built conditionally using autoregressive regression models for each driver conditional on the others. Whilst the baseline assumption within the (re)insurance industry is that different natural hazards are independent of each other, the assumption of independence of meteorological risks requires greater justification. Although our results suggest that most of the 120 hazard-hazard connections considered are likely to be independent of each other, 13 have significant dependence arising from one or more global modes of climate variability. This allows us to create a matrix of linkages describing the hazard dependency structure that Lloyd's can use to inform their understanding of risk.

  18. A global historical ozone data set and signatures of El Niño and the 11-yr solar cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Brönnimann

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a vertically resolved (with pressure as the vertical coordinate zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1900 to 2008, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM simulations with historical total ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea-surface temperatures, and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The historical total ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach (Ensemble Square Root Filter is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. While the observations provide little additional skill at the full spatio-temporal resolution, they do increase the skill at lower spatio-temporal resolutions and specifically for total ozone. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. However, a more pronounced effect of ENSO and slightly weaker effect of the 11 yr solar cycle are found in the earlier period. Several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0 are discussed.

  19. Historical View of the Influences of Measurement and Writing Theories on the Practice of Writing Assessment in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behizadeh, Nadia; Engelhard, George, Jr.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the interactions among measurement theories, writing theories, and writing assessments in the United States from an historical perspective. The assessment of writing provides a useful framework for examining how theories influence, and in some cases fail to influence actual practice. Two research traditions…

  20. Lithium Resources and Production: Critical Assessment and Global Projections

    OpenAIRE

    Mohr, Steve H.; GavinM. Mudd; Damien Giurco

    2012-01-01

    This paper critically assesses if accessible lithium resources are sufficient for expanded demand due to lithium battery electric vehicles. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of lithium globally were estimated at between 19.3 (Case 1) and 55.0 (Case 3) Mt Li; Best Estimate (BE) was 23.6 Mt Li. The Mohr 2010 model was modified to project lithium supply. The Case 1 URR scenario indicates sufficient lithium for a 77% maximum penetration of lithium battery electric vehicles in 2080 wherea...

  1. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  2. Sandstone copper assessment of the Teniz Basin, Kazakhstan: Chapter R in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossette, Pamela M.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Hayes, Timothy S.; Robinson, Gilpin R., Jr.; Wallis, John C.; Zientek, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts national and global resource assessments (mineral, energy, water, and biological) to provide data and scientific analyses to support decision making. Three-part mineral resource assessments result in informed, unbiased, quantitative, and probabilistic estimates of undiscovered mineral resources and deposits. In particular, mineral assessment results inform decisions concerning land-use and mineral-resource development. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of the sandstone subtype of sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposits in the Teniz Basin, Kazakhstan, was undertaken by the USGS.

  3. An Integrated Assessment of Investments towards Global Water Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea M. Bassi

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available To date there has been limited research on integrated water resource management, specifically regarding investments, from a global perspective, largely due to the complexity of the problem and to generally local water management practices. Water demand and supply are very often affected by international factors and with global climate change, population growth and increasing consumption, water management is now more than ever a global issue. This paper gives an overview of current and impending water problems while assessing investment needs for integrated water management as a possible solution to projected water challenges. The analysis compares a business as usual case (BAU to a scenario in which investments improve water efficiency use across sectors to curb demand, increase innovative supply from desalination and enhance conventional water resources management measures. System dynamics modeling is employed to represent the structural factors influencing water demand and supply in the context of an integrated framework including cross-sectoral linkages. The analysis confirms that sustainable water management is feasible, but it requires investments in the range of $145 billion per year between 2011 and 2050 (0.16% of GDP or $17/person/year and timely, effective action.

  4. Global Drought Assessment using a Multi-Model Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanLanen, H.; Huijgevoort, M. V.; Corzo Perez, G.; Wanders, N.; Hazenberg, P.; Loon, A. V.; Estifanos, S.; Melsen, L.

    2011-12-01

    Large-scale models are often applied to study past drought (forced with global reanalysis datasets) and to assess future drought (using downscaled, bias-corrected forcing from climate models). The EU project WATer and global CHange (WATCH) provides a 0.5o degree global dataset of meteorological forcing (i.e. WATCH Forcing Data, WFD), which was used as input for a suite of global hydrological models (GHMs) and land surface models (LSMs). Ten GHMs and LSMs have been run for the second half of the 20th C and seven for the whole century. Spatio-temporal drought characteristics were derived from gridded time series of daily and monthly aggregated runoff using the threshold level, and non-contiguous and contiguous approaches. GHMs and LSMs were intercompared and to some extent also tested against observations to explore to what level these models capture past drought events. This paper will present an overview of results. Global maps showing drought summary statistics (e.g. average duration) and distribution of drought clusters across the globe for major documented drought events will be presented. In addition, area in drought and the occurrence of the maximum drought cluster will be discussed. The main results from a number of studies are: (i) drought characteristics across the globe vary dependent on the selected window of years, (ii) GHMs and LSMs broadly identified major drought events in a number of large river basins around the world, (iii) drought events obtained with individual GHMs an LSMs may substantially deviate from those derived with a catchment scale hydrological model (selected EU WATCH river basins), but the multi-model ensemble mean agrees rather well, (iv) use of different calculation methods for reference evapotranspiration has little to substantial influence on drought characteristics dependent on the climate region (Köppen-Geiger), (v) groundwater systems are as important as climate for the development of drought in runoff. Understanding of past

  5. Environmental Engineering Curricula assessment in the global world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, Enrica; Catelani, Marcantonio; Manfrida, Giampaolo; Valdiserri, Juna

    2014-05-01

    Environmental engineers are technicians with specific expertise on the sustainability of human presence in the environment. Among other global dilemmas, to the environmental engineers it is often demanded to be able in developing systematic, innovative solutions in order to simultaneously meet water and energy needs, to build resilience to natural and technological disasters, to more accurately gauge and manage countries' greenhouse gas emissions. The general objectives of the Environmental Engineers are to establish actions of environmental sustainability as well as to verify progress toward global goals or international commitments. The globalization of challenges and problems to be faced, leads, in general, to the globalization of the engineering profession. In particular, since the environmental issues are without boundaries, and many and different are the involved professions and the competences, the environmental engineer must have a multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary approach to adequately answer to the demand of technical innovative knowledge at global scale. The environmental engineers, more and more, are involved in international projects were the effective collaboration requires not only the capacity to communicate in a common technical language, but also the assurance of an adequate and common level of technical competences, knowledge and understanding. The Europe-based EUR ACE system, currently operated by ENAEE - European Network for Accreditation of Engineering Education, can represent the proper framework and accreditation system in order to provide a set of measures to assess the quality of engineering degree programmes in Europe and abroad. In the global frame of the knowledge triangle: education-innovation-research, the accreditation and quality assurance of engineering curricula in Europe is discussed with reference to the Environmental engineering curricula, of the 1st and 2nd cycle, based on the European Credit Transfer System and in

  6. Global assessment of nutrient loads to the world's largest lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Gabriel; Reder, Klara; Malsy, Marcus; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina

    2015-04-01

    Lakes are essential resources of drinking water for a large part of mankind. Even so, most of the industrial and domestic waste water is discharged - often untreated - into rivers and streams that are finally the tributaries of these important freshwater bodies. Additionally, diffuse nutrient sources such as fertilizer and atmospheric deposition exacerbate existing algal blooms and low oxygen concentrations in rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. In this tense atmosphere of competing water uses, it is necessary to analyze all sources of pollution as well as their total contributions in order to protect these water bodies against deterioration. Finally, this is a general and urgently needed basis for developing recommendations for involved stakeholders and decision makers. Therefore, the project eartH2Observe, initiated and financed by the European Commission, creates the necessary and underlying quantitative and qualitative hydrological and water use data. In this context, information for global as well as for regional water resource assessments is being prepared based on new earth observations and an ensemble of global hydrological models. As a member of this ensemble, WaterGAP3 provides global estimates of lake water quality relevant parameters on a 5 arc minutes grid, namely total phosphorus and total nitrogen. These nutrient loads to lakes from different sources such as industrial fertilizer, organic fertilizer, domestic loads, atmospheric deposition, and urban surface runoff are estimated for the period 1990 to 2010 in a monthly time step. Whereas nutrient loads and their changes into numerous lakes worldwide are calculated, a special focus is set on nutrient loads into the large and shallow Lake Peipus, which is located between Estonia and Russia and subject to blooms of harmful cyanobacteria. We present estimates, trends, as well as sources of present nutrient loads (TN and TP) to the world's largest lakes with detailed insights to the Lake Peipus situation

  7. Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

    2014-01-01

    A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

  8. Assessing the Constructive Potential of Union Citizenship A Socio-Historical Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antje Wiener

    1997-09-01

    Full Text Available In European integration studies citizenship policy has not received much attention as a practice. Instead much of the literature has predominantly focused on legal assessments of Union citizenship shedding light on the limitations of supranational citizenship compared to the familiar statist concepts of citizenship. Legal approaches have thus often adopted a minimalist perspective on citizenship, establishing what Union citizenship is not leaving aside the constructive potential of Union citizenship. This paper seeks to demonstrate that a constructive perspective on the practice of citizenship facilitates valuable information about the creation of the institutionalised terms of citizenship over time. If it is true that Union citizenship is different from other types of citizenship, what is new about it? Constructive approaches suggest, that if we are to establish the dynamics which characterise Union citizenship analyses need to allow for a way of appreciating historical variability of context and contents of citizenship. To that end the major part of this paper seeks to develop a way of assessing the constructive potential of citizenship based on its newly institutionalised terms such as the shared values, objectives and regulations that have been established by citizenship policy over time. Beyond describing the emergence of EC/EU citizenship the paper promotes a systematic approach to reconstruct the policy in this supranational context. It is assumed that citizenship did not emerge out of the blue on the agenda of the Maastricht Intergovernmental Conference but that it is possible to identify agenda-setting steps in earlier stages of the policy process. If this assumption is correct, then a historical account could bring the various steps of citizenship policy which led to the history-making decision at Maastricht summit to the fore.

  9. Historical Background on Assessment the Performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rechard, R.P.

    1999-06-01

    In 1979, six years after selecting the Delaware Basin as a potential disposal area, Congress authorized the US Department of Energy to build the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, as a research and development facility for the safe management, storage, and disposal of waste contaminated with transuranic radioisotopes. In 1998, 19 years after authorization and 25 years after site selection, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified that the WIPP disposal system complied with its regulations. The EPA's decision was primarily based on the results from a performance assessment conducted in 1996. This performance assessment was the culmination of four preliminary performance assessments conducted between 1989 and 1992. This report provides a historical setting and context for how the performance of the deep geologic repository at the WIPP was analyzed. Also included is background on political forces acting on the project. For example, the federal requirement to provide environmental impact statements and negotiated agreements with the State of New Mexico influenced the type of scientific areas that were investigated and the engineering analysis prior to 1989 for the WIPP.

  10. A global call for action to include gender in research impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovseiko, Pavel V; Greenhalgh, Trisha; Adam, Paula; Grant, Jonathan; Hinrichs-Krapels, Saba; Graham, Kathryn E; Valentine, Pamela A; Sued, Omar; Boukhris, Omar F; Al Olaqi, Nada M; Al Rahbi, Idrees S; Dowd, Anne-Maree; Bice, Sara; Heiden, Tamika L; Fischer, Michael D; Dopson, Sue; Norton, Robyn; Pollitt, Alexandra; Wooding, Steven; Balling, Gert V; Jakobsen, Ulla; Kuhlmann, Ellen; Klinge, Ineke; Pololi, Linda H; Jagsi, Reshma; Smith, Helen Lawton; Etzkowitz, Henry; Nielsen, Mathias W; Carrion, Carme; Solans-Domènech, Maite; Vizcaino, Esther; Naing, Lin; Cheok, Quentin H N; Eckelmann, Baerbel; Simuyemba, Moses C; Msiska, Temwa; Declich, Giovanna; Edmunds, Laurel D; Kiparoglou, Vasiliki; Buchan, Alison M J; Williamson, Catherine; Lord, Graham M; Channon, Keith M; Surender, Rebecca; Buchan, Alastair M

    2016-01-01

    Global investment in biomedical research has grown significantly over the last decades, reaching approximately a quarter of a trillion US dollars in 2010. However, not all of this investment is distributed evenly by gender. It follows, arguably, that scarce research resources may not be optimally invested (by either not supporting the best science or by failing to investigate topics that benefit women and men equitably). Women across the world tend to be significantly underrepresented in research both as researchers and research participants, receive less research funding, and appear less frequently than men as authors on research publications. There is also some evidence that women are relatively disadvantaged as the beneficiaries of research, in terms of its health, societal and economic impacts. Historical gender biases may have created a path dependency that means that the research system and the impacts of research are biased towards male researchers and male beneficiaries, making it inherently difficult (though not impossible) to eliminate gender bias. In this commentary, we - a group of scholars and practitioners from Africa, America, Asia and Europe - argue that gender-sensitive research impact assessment could become a force for good in moving science policy and practice towards gender equity. Research impact assessment is the multidisciplinary field of scientific inquiry that examines the research process to maximise scientific, societal and economic returns on investment in research. It encompasses many theoretical and methodological approaches that can be used to investigate gender bias and recommend actions for change to maximise research impact. We offer a set of recommendations to research funders, research institutions and research evaluators who conduct impact assessment on how to include and strengthen analysis of gender equity in research impact assessment and issue a global call for action. PMID:27432056

  11. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  12. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3 and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to

  13. Large scale shallow landslides hazard assessment of the Inca Historical Sanctuary area (Peru)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delmonaco, G.; Margottini, C.; Martini, G.; Paolini, S.; Spizzichino, D.

    2009-04-01

    characterised by similar kinematics of movements. This situation enables the possibility to implement a spatial analysis for shallow landslides hazard assessment using the potentiality of a GIS. A physically-based approach using a simple geotechnical model (infinite slope) coupled with a rainfall infiltration temporal model, based on available historical precipitation records, has been implemented for the area of the Inca historical sanctuary providing a landslide hazard map. The same model has been applied also under pseudo-static conditions using the Newmark's method based on historical seismic analysis of the area. The data have been integrated by macroseismic observations collected through a specific historical-bibliographical investigation mainly based on the strongest earthquakes occurred in the area. The pseudo-static analysis has been calibrated on the seismic event occurred on 31st March 1650, with epicentral intensity of IX-X MSK, that produced induced shallow landslides in the surrounding valleys of Cuzco. The event can be associated to a 101km-length and 25km-width fault with main orientation similar to the main tectonic structures of the area. Probabilistic seismic hazard provide a maximum horizontal acceleration, for a 10%-exceeding probability, of 0,27g (50 yrs) and 0,31g (100 yrs) respectively. The landslide hazard maps can be used by local authorities as predictive tool for calibrating landslide mitigation measures, land use planning and management and for improving the resilience of the Inca Sanctuary to natural hazards.

  14. Quantitative assessment of historical coastal landfill contamination using in-situ field portable XRF (FPXRF)

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Shea, Francis; Spencer, Kate; Brasington, James

    2014-05-01

    Historically, waste was deposited on low value, easily accessible coastal land (e.g. marsh land). Within England and Wales alone, there are over 5000 historical landfills situated within coastal areas at risk of flooding at a 1 in 100 year return period (Environment Agency, 2012). Historical sites were constructed prior to relevant legislation, and have no basal or side wall engineering, and the waste constituents are mostly unknown. In theory, contaminant concentrations should be reduced through natural attenuation as the leachate plume migrates through surrounding fine-grained inter-tidal sediments before reaching receptor waters. However, erosion resulting from rising sea level and increased storm intensity may re-distribute these sediments and release associated contaminants into the estuarine and coastal environment. The diffuse discharge from these sites has not been quantified and this presents a problem for those landfill managers who are required to complete EIAs. An earlier detailed field campaign at Newlands landfill site, on the Thames Estuary, UK identified a sub-surface (~2m depth) contaminant plume extending c. 20 m from the landfill boundary into surrounding fine-grained saltmarsh sediments. These saltmarsh sediments are risk of being eroded releasing their contaminant load to the Thames Estuary. The aims of this work were to; 1) assess whether this plume is representative of other historical landfills with similar characteristics and 2) to develop a rapid screening methodology using field portable XRF that could be used to identify potential risk of other coastal landfill sites. GIS was used to select landfill sites of similar age, hydrological regime and sedimentary setting in the UK, for comparison. Collection of sediment samples and analysis by ICP OES is expensive and time-consuming, therefore cores were extracted and analysed with a Niton Goldd XRF in-situ. Contaminant data were available immediately and the sampling strategy could be adapted

  15. Historical precedence and technical requirements of biological weapons use : a threat assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estes, Daniel P.; Vogel, Kathleen Margaret; Gaudioso, Jennifer Marie; Hickok, Lauren T.; Jung, Danielle F.; Barnett, Natalie Beth; Frerichs, Rebecca L.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

    2004-05-01

    The threat from biological weapons is assessed through both a comparative historical analysis of the patterns of biological weapons use and an assessment of the technological hurdles to proliferation and use that must be overcome. The history of biological weapons is studied to learn how agents have been acquired and what types of states and substate actors have used agents. Substate actors have generally been more willing than states to use pathogens and toxins and they have focused on those agents that are more readily available. There has been an increasing trend of bioterrorism incidents over the past century, but states and substate actors have struggled with one or more of the necessary technological steps. These steps include acquisition of a suitable agent, production of an appropriate quantity and form, and effective deployment. The technological hurdles associated with the steps present a real barrier to producing a high consequence event. However, the ever increasing technological sophistication of society continually lowers the barriers, resulting in a low but increasing probability of a high consequence bioterrorism event.

  16. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew C. Fisher

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

  17. Pollution exposure on marine protected areas: A global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partelow, Stefan; von Wehrden, Henrik; Horn, Olga

    2015-11-15

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) face many challenges in their aim to effectively conserve marine ecosystems. In this study we analyze the extent of pollution exposure on the global fleet of MPAs. This includes indicators for current and future pollution and the implications for regionally clustered groups of MPAs with similar biophysical characteristics. To cluster MPAs into characteristic signature groups, their bathymetry, baseline biodiversity, distance from shore, mean sea surface temperature and mean sea surface salinity were used. We assess the extent at which each signature group is facing exposure from multiple pollution types. MPA groups experience similar pollution exposure on a regional level. We highlight how the challenges that MPAs face can be addressed through governance at the appropriate scale and design considerations for integrated terrestrial and marine management approaches within regional level networks. Furthermore, we present diagnostic social-ecological indicators for addressing the challenges facing unsuccessful MPAs with practical applications. PMID:26330016

  18. Globalization and social inequalities in Europe: assessment and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Brady

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to consider the social cohesion of the European Union which is today subjected to significant constraints by globalization and by the growing economic divergence between member States, especially in the Euro zone. The statistical assessment of this situation allows us to clearly establish the ascent of poverty and exclusion in Europe. The European Commission as well as the civil society is trying to remedy this crisis notably by means of European syndicalism whose propositions are closely analyzed in the following article. That being said, the macro-economic context is very damaged today and it unequally affects the member States of the Euro zone. A strength or even a mutation in European regulation seems necessary to promote a new economic and social regime in the Union.

  19. The future of global water stress: An integrated assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth; Gao, Xiang; Fant, Charles; Blanc, Élodie; Paltsev, Sergey; Jacoby, Henry; Reilly, John; Gueneau, Arthur

    2014-08-01

    We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 assessment subregions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a water resource system (WRS) component embedded within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimate changes out to 2050. For many developing nations, water demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living under at least moderate water stress, with 80% of these located in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress. The strongest climate impacts on water stress are observed in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0-1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living with overly exploited water conditions—where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface water supply. This would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface water shortfalls and include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional interbasin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.

  20. Assessment of global grey water footprint of major food crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hong; Liu, Wenfeng; Antonelli, Marta

    2016-04-01

    Agricultural production is one of the major sources of water pollution in the world. This is closely related to the excess application of fertilizers. Leaching of N and P to water bodies has caused serious degradation of water quality in many places. With the persistent increase in the demand for agricultural products, agricultural intensification evident during the past decades will continue in the future. This will lead to further increase in fertilizer application and consequently water pollution. Grey water footprint is a measure of the intensity of water pollution caused by water use for human activities. It is defined as the volume of water that is required to assimilate a load of pollutants to a freshwater body, based on natural background concentrations and water quality standards. This study conducts a global assessment of grey water footprint for major cereal crops, wheat, maize and rice. A crop model, Python-based EPIC (PEPIT), is applied to quantify the leaching of N and P from the fertilizer application in the three crops on a global scale with 0.5 degree spatial resolution. The hotspots of leaching are identified. The results suggest that, based on the definition and method of grey water footprint proposed by the World Water Footprint Network, the grey water footprint in many parts of the world has exceeded their total water resources availability. This indicates the seriousness of water pollution caused by agricultural production. However, the situation may also call for the development of a realistic measurement of grey water footprint which is more pertinent to water resources management. This paper proposes some alternatives in measuring grey water footprint and also discusses incorporation of grey water footprint assessment into water policy formulation and river basins plan development.

  1. On the Assessment of Global Terrestrial Reference Frame Temporal Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ampatzidis, Dimitrios; Koenig, Rolf; Zhu, Shengyuan

    2015-04-01

    Global Terrestrial Reference Frames (GTRFs) as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) provide reliable 4-D position information (3-D coordinates and their evolution through time). The given 3-D velocities play a significant role in precise position acquisition and are estimated from long term coordinate time series from the space-geodetic techniques DORIS, GNSS, SLR, and VLBI. GTRFs temporal evolution is directly connected with their internal stability: The more intense and inhomogeneous velocity field, the less stable TRF is derived. The assessment of the quality of the GTRF is mainly realized by comparing it to each individual technique's reference frame. E.g the comparison of GTRFs to SLR-only based TRF gives the sense of the ITRF stability with respect to the Geocenter and scale and their associated rates respectively. In addition, the comparison of ITRF to the VLBI-only based TRF can be used for the scale validation. However, till now there is not any specified methodology for the total assessment (in terms of origin, orientation and scale respectively) of the temporal evolution and GTRFs associated accuracy. We present a new alternative diagnostic tool for the assessment of GTRFs temporal evolution based on the well-known time-dependent Helmert type transformation formula (three shifts, three rotations and scale rates respectively). The advantage of the new methodology relies on the fact that it uses the full velocity field of the TRF and therefore all points not just the ones common to different techniques. It also examines simultaneously rates of origin, orientation and scale. The methodology is presented and implemented to the two existing GTRFs on the market (ITRF and DTRF which is computed from DGFI) , the results are discussed. The results also allow to compare directly each GTRF dynamic behavior. Furthermore, the correlations of the estimated parameters can also provide useful information to the proposed GTRFs assessment scheme.

  2. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  3. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  4. A global historical Radiosondes and Tracked Balloons Archive on standard pressure levels back to the 1920s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramella Pralungo, L.; Haimberger, L.; Stickler, A.; Brönnimann, S.

    2013-12-01

    Long observed time series of climate state quantities are needed to extend our understanding of global weather, climate variability and monitoring not only at the Earths surface but also the free atmosphere, since climate anomalies and climate change have a three-dimensional spatial structure. Radiosonde data before 1958 and tracked balloon (PILOT) data are rarely available at standard times on standard pressure levels, which complicates their use for climate studies. This paper describes an upper air dataset on standard pressure levels at 00:00 GMT and 12:00 GMT for parameters temperature and wind. The input data sources of this dataset are the Comprehensive Historical Upper Air Network (CHUAN version 1.7), the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) and upper air observations from the reanalysis datasets ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. As such it contains many data that have been digitized and collected in the EU FP7 project ERA-CLIM. Those data, which partly exist at asynoptic times and on altitude levels instead of pressure levels, have been brought to synoptic times and standard pressure levels using state of the art interpolation techniques, employing geopotential information National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) 20th Century Reanalysis (NOAA 20CR) to aid the interpolation. The standardized time series have been merged if necessary, taking care that the data are traceable back to their original sources. Only time series longer than 300 days have been saved in the merged archive, since the main purpose of this dataset is to aid climatological studies. If possible WMO numbers have been given to the station records. For some records which have never been identified by a WMO number, a local ID above 100 000 has been attached. This paper describes the merging procedure, data count and data quality and how traceability of the data is ensured. It does not describe a homogenization procedure for both temperature and wind data. Homogeneity adjustments for

  5. Assessment of competence for caesarean section with global rating scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Objective: To establish as reliable and valid the nine-point global rating scale for assessing residents' independent performance of Caesarean Section. Methods: The validation study was conducted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Aga Khan University Hospital, from April to December 2008, and comprised 15 residents during 40 Caesarean Sections over 9 months. Independently two evaluators rated each procedure and the difficulty of each case. Results: The observations per faculty ranged from 1-8 (mean 4.07+- 2.56). The Year 4 residents were observed the most i.e. 32 (40%), followed by Year 3, 30 (37.5%); Year 2; 14 (17.5%); and Year 1, 4 (5%). Mean time required for observation of the surgery was 43.81+-14.28 (range: 20-90) with a mode of 45 min. Mean aggregate rating on all items showed gradual progression with the year of residency. The assessment tool had an internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha) of 0.9097 with low inter-rater reliability. Conclusion: The evaluation tool was found to be reliable and valid for evaluating a resident's competence for performing Caesarean Section. Training of the assessors is required for a better inter-rater agreement. (author)

  6. Assessing the global sustainability of different electricity generation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A model is presented for assessing the global sustainability of power plants. It uses requirement trees, value functions and the analytic hierarchy process. The model consists of 27 parameters and makes it possible to obtain a sustainability index for each conventional or renewable energy plant, throughout its life-cycle. Here the aim is to make society aware of the sustainability level for each type of power system. As a result, decision making can be done with greater objectivity in both the public and private sectors. The model can be useful for engineers, researchers and, in general, decision makers in the energy policy field. With the exception of biomass fuels, the results obtained reinforce the idea that renewable energies make a greater contribution to sustainable development than their conventional counterparts. Renewable energies have a sustainability index that varies between 0.39 and 0.80; 0 and 1 being the lowest and highest contribution to sustainability, respectively. On the other hand, conventional power plants obtained results that fall between 0.29 and 0.57. High temperature solar-thermal plants, wind farms, photovoltaic solar plants and mini-hydroelectric power plants occupy the first four places, in this order. - Highlights: • A model for assessing the integral sustainability of power plants is proposed. • Different energy alternatives are ordered according to sustainability criteria. • Except for biomass, renewable energies contribute more to sustainable development. • The model aids the decision making process in the energy policy field

  7. Global spatio-temporal patterns in tropical tuna purse seine fisheries on drifting fish aggregating devices (DFADs) : taking a historical perspective to inform current challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Fonteneau, Alain; Chassot, Emmanuel; Bodin, Nathalie

    2013-01-01

    This study provides a historical overview of the use of drifting fish aggregating devices (DFADs) in purse seine fisheries since the early 1990s, using global tuna fisheries datasets from the four tuna Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs). Tropical tuna purse seine fisheries typically target large yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) and bigeye (Thunnus obesus) tunas on free-swimming schools and skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) and juveniles of yellowfin and bigeye associated with drifti...

  8. Porphyry copper assessment of Southeast Asia and Melanesia: Chapter D in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Dicken, Connie L.; Drenth, Benjamin J.; Ludington, Steve; Robinson, Gilpin R., Jr.; Setiabudi, Bambang Tjahjono; Sukserm, Wudhikarn; Sunuhadi, Dwi Nugroho; Wah, Alexander Yan Sze; Zientek, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with member countries of the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) on an assessment of the porphyry copper resources of Southeast Asia and Melanesia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The region hosts world-class porphyry copper deposits and underexplored areas that are likely to contain undiscovered deposits. Examples of known porphyry copper deposits include Batu Hijau and Grasberg in Indonesia; Panguna, Frieda River, and Ok Tedi in Papua New Guinea; and Namosi in Fiji.

  9. Porphyry copper assessment of western Central Asia: Chapter N in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Byron R.; Mars, John L.; Denning, Paul D.; Phillips, Jeffrey D.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Zientek, Michael L.; Dicken, Connie L.; Drew, Lawrence J.; with contributions from Alexeiev, Dmitriy; Seltmann, Reimar; Herrington, Richard J.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey conducted an assessment of resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in the western Central Asia countries of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and the southern Urals of Kazakhstan and Russia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits; (2) compile a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) where data permit, estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates the amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in those undiscovered deposits.

  10. Assessment of Missouri River floodplain invertebrates during historic inundation: implications for river restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gosch N.J.C.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Floodplain connectivity is important to aquatic organisms in large rivers. Anthropogenic alterations regulating the Missouri River have limited connectivity and negatively affected native fauna. Determining the biological response to rare inundation events may be important when considering potential restoration options on a regulated river; thus, we assessed benthic invertebrate and zooplankton communities at three floodplain sites during a historic Missouri River high-water event. Chironomid larvae dominated during most sampling trips and densities were often highest during initial sampling trips with lower densities as high water persisted. Similar trends were evident for rotifer, cladoceran, and copepod densities. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling also showed relatively high dissimilarity of densities between early and late sampling trips for benthic invertebrate and zooplankton communities. As such, short-term inundation may be more beneficial to Missouri River benthic invertebrate (mainly chironomid larvae and zooplankton production than more prolonged inundation lasting a month or more. Furthermore, restoration projects may be designed at elevations allowing more short-term inundation, which would likely benefit native fishes with additional spawning, nursery, and foraging habitat. Levee setbacks may be an effective restoration option for increasing the amount of habitat available for short-term inundation while potentially providing socioeconomic, flood-risk reduction benefits by enhancing flow conveyance.

  11. Measurement of thermophysical properties coupled with LCA assessment for the optimization of a historical building retrofit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortolin, A.; Bison, P.; Cadelano, G.; Ferrarini, G.; Fortuna, S.

    2015-11-01

    Historical buildings are a significant part of the Italian building stock and, in most cases, need deep refurbishment interventions to reach the energy criteria required by the current standards. A workflow that integrates on-site surveys and building modeling is mandatory to obtain effective energy saving measures. This work describes the analysis and modeling of the San Vito alla Rivera church, a XIV century building that was damaged during 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, suffering a partial collapse of the façade and of the roof. The latter was selected for a complete restoration that could improve its thermal performance while maintaining, as much as possible, the original structure. Several elements of the roof were collected in situ in order to measure, in laboratory, its thermophysical properties applying standard techniques and alternative methods based on infrared thermography. The accurate characterization of the materials was the starting point for the estimation of the environmental impact of the retrofit aimed to reach a defined thermal transmittance. A model of the building was created with TRNSYS software to calculate the energy consumption before and after the intervention. A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) analysis was conducted on different insulation materials to determine the one with the lowest impact.

  12. Assessment of Retrofitting Measures for a Large Historic Research Facility Using a Building Energy Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Tae Chae

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A calibrated building simulation model was developed to assess the energy performance of a large historic research building. The complexity of space functions and operational conditions with limited availability of energy meters makes it hard to understand the end-used energy consumption in detail and to identify appropriate retrofitting options for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. An energy simulation model was developed to study the energy usage patterns not only at a building level, but also of the internal thermal zones, and system operations. The model was validated using site measurements of energy usage and a detailed audit of the internal load conditions, system operation, and space programs to minimize the discrepancy between the documented status and actual operational conditions. Based on the results of the calibrated model and end-used energy consumption, the study proposed potential energy conservation measures (ECMs for the building envelope, HVAC system operational methods, and system replacement. It also evaluated each ECM from the perspective of both energy and utility cost saving potentials to help retrofitting plan decision making. The study shows that the energy consumption of the building was highly dominated by the thermal requirements of laboratory spaces. Among other ECMs the demand management option of overriding the setpoint temperature is the most cost effective measure.

  13. Arsenic Mobilization from Historically Contaminated Mining Soils in a Continuously Operated Bioreactor: Implications for Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajpert, Liwia; Kolvenbach, Boris A; Ammann, Erik M; Hockmann, Kerstin; Nachtegaal, Maarten; Eiche, Elisabeth; Schäffer, Andreas; Corvini, Philippe Francois Xavier; Skłodowska, Aleksandra; Lenz, Markus

    2016-09-01

    Concentrations of soil arsenic (As) in the vicinity of the former Złoty Stok gold mine (Lower Silesia, southwest Poland) exceed 1000 μg g(-1) in the area, posing an inherent threat to neighboring bodies of water. This study investigated continuous As mobilization under reducing conditions for more than 3 months. In particular, the capacity of autochthonic microflora that live on natural organic matter as the sole carbon/electron source for mobilizing As was assessed. A biphasic mobilization of As was observed. In the first two months, As mobilization was mainly conferred by Mn dissolution despite the prevalence of Fe (0.1 wt % vs 5.4 for Mn and Fe, respectively) as indicated by multiple regression analysis. Thereafter, the sudden increase in aqueous As[III] (up to 2400 μg L(-1)) was attributed to an almost quintupling of the autochthonic dissimilatory As-reducing community (quantitative polymerase chain reaction). The aqueous speciation influenced by microbial activity led to a reduction of solid phase As species (X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy) and a change in the elemental composition of As hotspots (micro X-ray fluorescence mapping). The depletion of most natural dissolved organic matter and the fact that an extensive mobilization of As[III] occurred after two months raises concerns about the long-term stability of historically As-contaminated sites. PMID:27454004

  14. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  15. What Makes a Good History Essay? Assessing Historical Aspects of Argumentative Writing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monte-Sano, Chauncey

    2012-01-01

    Teaching students to write standard arguments in history classes is certainly worthwhile; teaching them to write historical arguments is even more so. Learning historical writing is something that a range of students can do. But what does it mean to write a good history essay and what might students' attempts to do so look like? Here, the author…

  16. Historic mortars: Characterisation, assessment and repair. A state-of-the-art summary

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Válek, Jan; Hughes, J.J.; Groot, C.

    Vol. 7. Dordrecht : Springer, 2012 - (Válek, J.; Hughes, J.; Groot, J.), s. 1-12 ISBN 978-94-007-4634-3 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LA09008 Institutional support: RVO:68378297 Keywords : historic mortars * 2nd Historic mortars conference 2010, Prague * repair mortars Subject RIV: AL - Art, Architecture, Cultural Heritage

  17. Historical Exposures to Chemicals at the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant: A Pilot Retrospective Exposure Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janeen Denise Robertson

    1999-02-01

    In a mortality study of white males who had worked at the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant between 1952 and 1979, an increased number of deaths from benign and unspecified intracranial neoplasms was found. A case-control study nested within this cohort investigated the hypothesis that an association existed between brain tumor death and exposure to either internally deposited plutonium or external ionizing radiation. There was no statistically significant association found between estimated radiation exposure from internally deposited plutonium and the development of brain tumors. Exposure by job or work area showed no significant difference between the cohort and the control groups. An update of the study found elevated risk estimates for (1) all lymphopoietic neoplasms, and (2) all causes of death in employees with body burdens greater than or equal to two nanocuries of plutonium. There was an excess of brain tumors for the entire cohort. Similar cohort studies conducted on worker populations from other plutonium handling facilities have not yet shown any elevated risks for brain tumors. Historically, the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant used large quantities of chemicals in their production operations. The use of solvents, particularly carbon tetrachloride, was unique to Rocky Flats. No investigation of the possible confounding effects of chemical exposures was done in the initial studies. The objectives of the present study are to (1) investigate the history of chemical use at the Rocky Flats facility; (2) locate and analyze chemical monitoring information in order to assess employee exposure to the chemicals that were used in the highest volume; and (3) determine the feasibility of establishing a chemical exposure assessment model that could be used in future epidemiology studies.

  18. Assessing Globalization Competences in the Information Systems Domain – Instruments and Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Stén, Tiia

    2012-01-01

    Stén, Tiia Assessing Globalization Competences in the Information Systems Domain – Instruments and Methods Jyväskylä: University of Jyväskylä, 2012, 36 p. Information Systems Science, Bachelor’s thesis Supervisor: Pawlowski, Jan The goal of this bachelor’s thesis is to research suitable competence assessment instruments and methods for assessing globalization competence in the Infor-mation Systems domain. Within the framework of the study, globalization competences are the skil...

  19. Evaluation process of global environmental impact: assessment guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In developed and developing countries, the EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) is becoming mandatory for the approval of Industrial projects and projects of Environmental hazards. The approving authority of each country has its own guidelines to get projects approved and make project proponents responsible to submit Environmental Impact Statement for the its detailed assessment. In this paper authors have studied an existing EIA Global guidelines and its evaluation process of altogether 40 countries from four continents, Asia, Pacific/Middle East, Europe, Australia and America/Canada. This evaluation process is recorded in the tabulation form and it has been formulated stage wise in which stage one highlights the inception of EIA guidelines of each country and stage two and three gives implementation process. The inception stage of guidelines gives an idea that when EIA was started and an implementation stages provide all information that when EIA become a part of legislation that provide an opportunity to the reader to understand the decision making process for project approvals. The main objective of writing EIA guidelines is to monitor the sustain ability of various types of the projects under different sectoral guidelines, therefore Projects related with different Sectors have been chosen and a detailed record in tabulation form gives an idea to understand the interaction of these guidelines. To make this paper more comprehensive, authors have gone thorough the sectoral guidelines of altogether 64 countries and studied 21 sector oriented project fields. These are of Agriculture/Irrigation, Biodiversity, Coastal/Marine, Community Participation, Extractive industries, Fisheries, Forestry, Hazard Risk, Health, Human settlement, Industry, Multi sectorial, Ports and Harbors, Power, refugees/resettlement, Social, Strategies/Planning, Tourism/Recreational, transportation, Waste Pollution and Wetlands/Water resources. (author)

  20. Guidelines for rating Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aas IH Monrad

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF is a scoring system for the severity of illness in psychiatry. It is used clinically in many countries, as well as in research, but studies have shown several problems with GAF, for example concerning its validity and reliability. Guidelines for rating are important. The present study aimed to identify the current status of guidelines for rating GAF, and relevant factors and gaps in knowledge for the development of improved guidelines. Methods A thorough literature search was conducted. Results Few studies of existing guidelines have been conducted; existing guidelines are short; and rating has a subjective element. Seven main categories were identified as being important in relation to further development of guidelines: (1 general points about guidelines for rating GAF; (2 introduction to guidelines, with ground rules; (3 starting scoring at the top, middle or bottom level of the scale; (4 scoring for different time periods and of different values (highest, lowest or average; (5 the finer grading of the scale; (6 different guidelines for different conditions; and (7 different languages and cultures. Little information is available about how rules for rating are understood by different raters: the final score may be affected by whether the rater starts at the top, middle or bottom of the scale; there is little data on which value/combination of GAF values to record; guidelines for scoring within 10-point intervals are limited; there is little empirical information concerning the suitability of existing guidelines for different conditions and patient characteristics; and little is known about the effects of translation into different languages or of different cultural understanding. Conclusions Few studies have dealt specifically with guidelines for rating GAF. Current guidelines for rating GAF are not comprehensive, and relevant points for new guidelines are presented. Theoretical and

  1. Measuring and Assessing Globalization in Higher Education: The Creation of a Scale of Global Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Lincoln Duane

    2012-01-01

    Higher education has entered an era of globalization where the movement of minds is fashioning out a new university. This study defines and describes globalization and its impact on higher education. It presents the uses and methodologies of rankings and global measurements which are increasing in scope and breadth as the university system aims to…

  2. Porphyry copper assessment of eastern Australia: Chapter L in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Len, Richard A.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Robinson, Gilpin R., Jr.; Zientek, Michael L.; Drenth, Benjamin J.; Jaireth, Subhash; Cossette, Pamela M.; Wallis, John C.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts national and global assessments of resources (mineral, energy, water, and biologic) to provide science in support of decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide syntheses of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to occur in the Earth’s crust and which commodities may be present, together with estimates of amounts of resources that may be present in undiscovered deposits. The USGS collaborated with geologists of the Geological Survey of New South Wales and Geoscience Australia (formerly the Australian Geological Survey Organisation) on an assessment of Phanerozoic-age porphyry copper resources in Australia. Porphyry copper deposits contain about 11 percent of the identified copper resources in Australia. This study addresses resources of known porphyry copper deposits and expected resources of undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in eastern Australia.

  3. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H.; Ellis, Erle C.; Letourneau, Aurelien

    2011-07-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  4. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verburg, Peter H [Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Ellis, Erle C [Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250 (United States); Letourneau, Aurelien, E-mail: Peter.Verburg@ivm.vu.nl [UMR 5175 Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle and Evolutive, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5 (France)

    2011-07-15

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  5. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  6. Archaeology, historical site risk assessment and monitoring by UAV: approaches and case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecci, Antonio; Masini, Nicola

    2016-04-01

    Non-invasive methods for archaeological research, like geophysical prospecting, aerial and satellite remote sensing, integrated with field survey activity, can make a large quantity of data essential for both operational uses and scientific purposes: from the detection of buried remains to risk assessment and monitoring (Lasaponara & Masini 2012; 2013; Lasaponara et al. 2016). Among the latest non-invasive methods there are the unmanned air vehicle (UAV) platforms, a real innovation, which proved to be capable for a variety of fields of applications, from the topographic survey to the monitoring of infrastructures. In the field of cultural heritage, for purposes ranging from the documentation to the detection of archaeological features, the use of UAVs is extremely functional, efficient and low-cost. Moreover, UAV flight requires much less time than that required by an Aircraft. A traditional aircraft must take off from an airport, sometimes far from the work area, while a drone, particularly rotary wing, can be transported in the area of interest and take off directly from there in a few minutes. The reason of the success of UAV are also the innovative vision, the very high-resolution of the obtainable products (orthophoto, digital elevations models) and the availability of easy tools of image processing based on Structure from Motion (SfM). (Neitzel & Klonowski 2011; Nex & Remondino 2013). SfM is a range imaging technique which allows to estimate three-dimensional objects from two-dimensional image sequences which may be coupled with local motion signals. Respect to conventional photogrammetry which requires a single stereo-pair, SfM needs multiple, overlapping photographs as input to feature extraction and 3-D reconstruction algorithms. In SfM the geometry of the scene, camera positions and orientation are solved simultaneously using a highly redundant, iterative bundle adjustment procedure, based on a database of features automatically extracted from a set of

  7. THE FINANCIAL ROLE OF EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES IN GLOBAL IMBALANCES: AN ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENTS AFTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

    OpenAIRE

    HYUN-HOON LEE; DONGHYUN PARK

    2013-01-01

    The central objective of our paper is to empirically assess how global imbalances, have evolved since the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. More specifically, we examine how the portfolio investment positions of major East Asian countries in US financial markets — equities, debt securities, and bank lending — changed after the crisis. Our econometric analysis, based on the gravity model to identify the determinants of foreign portfolio investment into the US, finds that the "over-investme...

  8. Historical nectar assessment reveals the fall and rise of floral resources in Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baude, Mathilde; Kunin, William E.; Boatman, Nigel D.; Conyers, Simon; Davies, Nancy; Gillespie, Mark A. K.; Morton, R. Daniel; Smart, Simon M.; Memmott, Jane

    2016-02-01

    There is considerable concern over declines in insect pollinator communities and potential impacts on the pollination of crops and wildflowers. Among the multiple pressures facing pollinators, decreasing floral resources due to habitat loss and degradation has been suggested as a key contributing factor. However, a lack of quantitative data has hampered testing for historical changes in floral resources. Here we show that overall floral rewards can be estimated at a national scale by combining vegetation surveys and direct nectar measurements. We find evidence for substantial losses in nectar resources in England and Wales between the 1930s and 1970s; however, total nectar provision in Great Britain as a whole had stabilized by 1978, and increased from 1998 to 2007. These findings concur with trends in pollinator diversity, which declined in the mid-twentieth century but stabilized more recently. The diversity of nectar sources declined from 1978 to 1990 and thereafter in some habitats, with four plant species accounting for over 50% of national nectar provision in 2007. Calcareous grassland, broadleaved woodland and neutral grassland are the habitats that produce the greatest amount of nectar per unit area from the most diverse sources, whereas arable land is the poorest with respect to amount of nectar per unit area and diversity of nectar sources. Although agri-environment schemes add resources to arable landscapes, their national contribution is low. Owing to their large area, improved grasslands could add substantially to national nectar provision if they were managed to increase floral resource provision. This national-scale assessment of floral resource provision affords new insights into the links between plant and pollinator declines, and offers considerable opportunities for conservation.

  9. ASSESSMENT OF THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL MARKETING STRATEGY

    OpenAIRE

    V.Savelyev

    2014-01-01

    The article concerns with essence of assessment of the business environment and specific directions of analysis during the working out of global marketing strategy. The classification of the global marketing environment researches and tasks sequence in the context of the decisions made on each stage of global marketing strategy is proposed.

  10. An Integrated Assessment of Investments towards Global Water Sustainability

    OpenAIRE

    Andrea M. Bassi; Zhuohua Tan; Sophie Goss

    2010-01-01

    To date there has been limited research on integrated water resource management, specifically regarding investments, from a global perspective, largely due to the complexity of the problem and to generally local water management practices. Water demand and supply are very often affected by international factors and with global climate change, population growth and increasing consumption, water management is now more than ever a global issue. This paper gives an overview of current and impendi...

  11. Assessing changes on urban flood vulnerability through mapping land use from historical information

    OpenAIRE

    Boudou, M.; B. Danière; Lang, M

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a diachronic appraisal of flood vulnerability of two French cities, respectively Besançon and Moissac, which have been largely impacted by two ancient floods in January 1910 and March 1930. Both flood events figured among the most significant events recorded in France during the XXth century. An analysis of historical sources allows the mapping of land use and occupation within the flood extent of the two historical floods, both in past a...

  12. Non-standard testing in characterisation and consolidation assessment of historic mortars

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Drdácký, Miloš

    Vol. 7. Dordrecht : Springer, 2012 - (Válek, J.; Hughes, J.; Groot, J.), s. 443-450 ISBN 978-94-007-4634-3 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA103/09/2067; GA MŠk(CZ) LA09008 Institutional support: RVO:68378297 Keywords : historic mortars * non-standard tests * historic masonry Subject RIV: AL - Art, Architecture, Cultural Heritage

  13. Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program Maps Are Misleading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A. K.

    2010-12-01

    Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and people, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) project was launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP) with the support of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), and endorsed as a demonstration program in the framework of the United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR). The GSHAP project terminated in 1999 when the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment maps and digital data got published (e.g., URL www.seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/). The majority of recent disastrous earthquakes, like the 12 January 2010 Port-au-Prince (Haiti), the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan (Sichuan, China), …, the 26 January 2001 Bhuj (Gujarat, India) prove that the maps resulted from GSHAP are evidently misleading. We have performed a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration (PGA) values with those related to strong earthquakes in 2000-2010. Each of the 1320 shallow magnitude 6 or larger earthquakes has from 4 to 9 values of the GSHAP PGA at the distance less than 12 km from its epicenter. When transforms to intensity are applied, e.g., MMI(M) = 1.5 (M - 1) (Gutenberg, Richter, 1954) and MMI(PGA) = 1.27 Ln(PGA) - 3.74 (Shteinberg et al. 1993), the difference between the observed and GSHAP estimates MMI(M) - MMI(PGA) is above 1.6 on average while its median equals 2.5. Moreover, for 51 out of 56 magnitude 7.5 or larger events in 2000-2010, the difference is above 1, while for 30 of

  14. Assessing the impact of contemporary urbanization on bioclimatic features of historic architecture through a two-step simulation process

    OpenAIRE

    Pastore, Luisa; Rastogi, Parag; Rockcastle, Siobhan Francois; Monari, Hélène Yvette Claudine; Rueff, Guillaume; Andersen, Marilyne

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide a systematic understanding, through simulation-based assessment, of how contemporary urban planning affects the bioclimatic features of existing historic architecture. An emblematic early 20th century Brazilian building, the Casa das Rosas in São Paulo, has been chosen as a case study to see how the deep transformation of its surroundings has altered its indoor conditions. Taking into account both the original and the current urban and environmental conditi...

  15. Assessment of structural damage in historical constructions using numerical models : the case of the church of the Poblet Monastery

    OpenAIRE

    Saloustros, Savvas; Pelà, Luca; Roca Fabregat, Pedro; Portal, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the assessment of the structural damage and stability of the church of the Royal Monastery of Santa Maria de Poblet, one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites in Spain. The structure presents damage affecting mostly the main nave and lateral aisles, including cracking in the vaults and significant deformation in the clerestory walls and the barrel vault of the main nave. Following the historical survey, a sophisticated finite element model was used for the structural anal...

  16. How to assess global management competencies: An investigation of existing instruments

    OpenAIRE

    Bücker, Joost; Poutsma, Erik

    2010-01-01

    Managers and employees need global leadership competencies in order to operate effectively in international business. In order to prepare both managers and employees for operating in the global arena an instrument measuring global leadership competencies would be very useful. In this article we design a framework for systematically assessing measurement instruments designed to measure Global Management Competencies (GMC). Based on an elaborate search, we found 23 instruments of varying qualit...

  17. Integrative-index method of assessment of the countries’ financial globalization level

    OpenAIRE

    Oleh Mozhovyi; Nataliia Stukalo

    2009-01-01

    The article considers the relevant problems of the complex evaluation of the countries’ financial globalization level. There were investigated methodological principles and assessment tools of both the economic globalization in general and its financial component. It offers an integrative index of the countries’ financial globalization based on which calculations we analyzed characteristic features and dynamism of the globalization processes development in the sphere of finance of some count...

  18. Assessing the Evolving Fragility of the Global Food System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, Michael Joseph; Bose, Satyajit; Chon, So Young; Cook, Benjamin I.

    2015-01-01

    The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992-2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18-year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85 of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9 (3.8) for 1992-1996, increasing to 11 (5.7) for 20052009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2 (2.2) to 14 (5.2). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity.

  19. Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992–2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18 year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85% of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90%, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9% (3.8%) for 1992–1996, increasing to 11% (5.7%) for 2005–2009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2% (2.2%) to 14% (5.2%). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity. (letter)

  20. Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, Michael J.; Bose, Satyajit; Chon, So Young; Cook, Benjamin I.

    2015-02-01

    The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992-2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18 year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85% of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90%, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9% (3.8%) for 1992-1996, increasing to 11% (5.7%) for 2005-2009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2% (2.2%) to 14% (5.2%). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity.

  1. AFM assessment of the surface nano/microstructure on chemically damaged historical and model glasses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carmona, Noemi [Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Metalurgicas, CSIC, Avda. Gregorio del Amo, 8, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Kowal, Andrzej [Institute of Catalysis and Surface Chemistry, PAN, ul. Niezapominajek 8, 30239 Cracow (Poland); Rincon, Jesus-Maria [Instituto Eduardo Torroja de Ciencias de la Construccion, CSIC, C. Serrano Galvache s/n, 28033 Madrid (Spain); Villegas, Maria-Angeles, E-mail: mariangeles.villegas@cchs.csic.es [Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Metalurgicas, CSIC, Avda. Gregorio del Amo, 8, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Historia, Centro de Ciencias Humanas y Sociales, CSIC, C. Albasanz, 26-28, 28037 Madrid (Spain)

    2010-01-15

    Surface chemical damage on selected historical glasses from 13th to 19th centuries was evaluated by means of atomic force microscopy (AFM). Nano- and microstructure, roughness and topography of ancient glass samples have been compared with those of model glasses prepared by conventional melting at the laboratory with similar compositions to those most frequently found in historical glass pieces. The results obtained allow discussing the chemical degradation mechanisms in terms of the acid and/or basic chemical attack carried out by the combination of gaseous pollutants and environmental humidity. Even though deep corrosion features escape to the observation order of magnitude of the AF microscope used, the AFM technique proves to be quite useful for the study and evaluation of the most common surface pathologies of historical glasses with different compositions once submitted to natural weathering.

  2. Impact of historical mining assessed in soils by kinetic extraction and lead isotopic ratios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camizuli, E., E-mail: estelle.camizuli@u-bourgogne.fr [UMR 6298, ArTeHiS, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS — Culture, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Monna, F. [UMR 6298, ArTeHiS, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS — Culture, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Bermond, A.; Manouchehri, N.; Besançon, S. [Institut des sciences et industries du vivant et de l' environnement (AgroParisTech), Laboratoire de Chimie Analytique, 16, rue Claude Bernard, 75231 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Losno, R. [UMR 7583, LISA, Universités Paris 7-Paris 12 — CNRS, 61 av. du Gal de Gaulle, 94010 Créteil Cedex (France); Oort, F. van [UR 251, Pessac, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Centre de Versailles-Grignon, RD 10, 78026 Versailles Cedex (France); Labanowski, J. [UMR 7285, IC2MP, Université de Poitiers — CNRS, 4, rue Michel Brunet, 86022 Poitiers (France); Perreira, A. [UMR 6298, ArTeHiS, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS — Culture, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Chateau, C. [UFR SVTE, Université de Bourgogne, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Alibert, P. [UMR 6282, Biogeosciences, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France)

    2014-02-01

    The aim of this study is to estimate the long-term behaviour of trace metals, in two soils differently impacted by past mining. Topsoils from two 1 km{sup 2} zones in the forested Morvan massif (France) were sampled to assess the spatial distribution of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn. The first zone had been contaminated by historical mining. As expected, it exhibits higher trace-metal levels and greater spatial heterogeneity than the second non-contaminated zone, supposed to represent the local background. One soil profile from each zone was investigated in detail to estimate metal behaviour, and hence, bioavailability. Kinetic extractions were performed using EDTA on three samples: the A horizon from both soil profiles and the B horizon from the contaminated soil. For all three samples, kinetic extractions can be modelled by two first-order reactions. Similar kinetic behaviour was observed for all metals, but more metal was extracted from the contaminated A horizon than from the B horizon. More surprising is the general predominance of the residual fraction over the “labile” and “less labile” pools. Past anthropogenic inputs may have percolated over time through the soil profiles because of acidic pH conditions. Stable organo-metallic complexes may also have been formed over time, reducing metal availability. These processes are not mutually exclusive. After kinetic extraction, the lead isotopic compositions of the samples exhibited different signatures, related to contamination history and intrinsic soil parameters. However, no variation in lead signature was observed during the extraction experiment, demonstrating that the “labile” and “less labile” lead pools do not differ in terms of origin. Even if trace metals resulting from past mining and metallurgy persist in soils long after these activities have ceased, kinetic extractions suggest that metals, at least for these particular forest soils, do not represent a threat for biota. - Highlights: • Trace

  3. Globalizing Historically Black Business Schools: A Case Study of the Application of Modern Pedagogical Theories of Internationalizing Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kedia, Ben L.; Clampit, Jack; Gaffney, Nolan

    2014-01-01

    The AACSB and AIB have each issued reports aimed at ensuring the internationalization of business schools. Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs)--as underresourced entities serving an underprivileged constituency--may need additional attention. Unfortunately, neither the AACSB nor AIB reports mention HBCUs. The broader literature is…

  4. Assessing the potential global extent of SWOT river discharge observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavelsky, Tamlin M.; Durand, Michael T.; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Beighley, R. Edward; Paiva, Rodrigo C. D.; Allen, George H.; Miller, Zachary F.

    2014-11-01

    Despite its importance as a major element of the global hydrologic cycle, runoff remains poorly constrained except at the largest spatial scales due to limitations of the global stream gauge network and inadequate data sharing. Efforts using remote sensing to infer runoff from discharge estimates are limited by characteristics of present-day sensors. The proposed Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, a joint project between the United States and France, aims to substantially improve space-based estimates of river discharge. However, the extent of rivers observable by SWOT, likely limited to those wider than 50-100 m, remains unknown. Here, we estimate the extent of SWOT river observability globally using a downstream hydraulic geometry (DHG) approach combining basin areas from the Hydro1k and Hydrosheds elevation products, discharge from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), and width estimates from a global width-discharge relationship. We do not explicitly consider SWOT-specific errors associated with layover and other phenomena in this analysis, although they have been considered in formulation of the 50-100 m width thresholds. We compare the extent of SWOT-observable rivers with GRDC and USGS gauge datasets, the most complete datasets freely available to the global scientific community. In the continental US, SWOT would match USGS river basin coverage only at large scales (>25,000 km2). Globally, SWOT would substantially improve on GRDC observation extent: SWOT observation of 100 m (50 m) rivers will allow discharge estimation in >60% of 50,000 km2 (10,000 km2) river basins. In contrast, the GRDC observes fewer than 30% (15%) of these basins. SWOT could improve characterization of global runoff processes, especially with a 50 m observability threshold, but in situ gauge data remains essential and must be shared more freely with the international scientific community.

  5. Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Li-Guang; Wang, Bin

    2003-01-01

    A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the

  6. Global review of open access risk assessment software packages valid for global or continental scale analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Simpson, Alanna; Gunasekara, Rashmin; Baca, Abigail; Schaefer, Andreas; Ishizawa, Oscar; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Deparday, Vivien; Forni, Marc; Himmelfarb, Anne; Leder, Jan

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few decades, a plethora of open access software packages for the calculation of earthquake, volcanic, tsunami, storm surge, wind and flood have been produced globally. As part of the World Bank GFDRR Review released at the Understanding Risk 2014 Conference, over 80 such open access risk assessment software packages were examined. Commercial software was not considered in the evaluation. A preliminary analysis was used to determine whether the 80 models were currently supported and if they were open access. This process was used to select a subset of 31 models that include 8 earthquake models, 4 cyclone models, 11 flood models, and 8 storm surge/tsunami models for more detailed analysis. By using multi-criteria analysis (MCDA) and simple descriptions of the software uses, the review allows users to select a few relevant software packages for their own testing and development. The detailed analysis evaluated the models on the basis of over 100 criteria and provides a synopsis of available open access natural hazard risk modelling tools. In addition, volcano software packages have since been added making the compendium of risk software tools in excess of 100. There has been a huge increase in the quality and availability of open access/source software over the past few years. For example, private entities such as Deltares now have an open source policy regarding some flood models (NGHS). In addition, leaders in developing risk models in the public sector, such as Geoscience Australia (EQRM, TCRM, TsuDAT, AnuGA) or CAPRA (ERN-Flood, Hurricane, CRISIS2007 etc.), are launching and/or helping many other initiatives. As we achieve greater interoperability between modelling tools, we will also achieve a future wherein different open source and open access modelling tools will be increasingly connected and adapted towards unified multi-risk model platforms and highly customised solutions. It was seen that many software tools could be improved by enabling user

  7. Assessment of Global Emissions, Local Emissions and Immissions of Different Heating Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Georg Erdmann; Robert Kunde; Matthias Gaderer; Johannes Henkel

    2009-01-01

    This paper assesses and compares existing and new technologies for space heating in Germany (e.g., heat pumps, and solar thermal and wood pellet systems) in terms of their environmental impacts. The various technologies were analyzed within the context of the new German legislation. The assessment was carried out on three levels: 1. Global emissions: a life cycle assessment was carried out in order to find the global environmental footprint of the various technologies; 2. Local emissions: the...

  8. Numerical assessment of behavior of a historical Central European wooden joint with dowel subjected to bending

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kunecký, Jiří; Sebera, V.; Tippner, J.; Kloiber, Michal

    Mexico City : Instituto de Ingeniería UNAM, 2014 - (Peña, F.; Chávez, M.) ISBN N R&D Projects: GA MK(CZ) DF12P01OVV004 Keywords : wooden joint * contact analysis * historical construction * finite element analysis Subject RIV: AL - Art, Architecture, Cultural Heritage

  9. Psychology's Role in the Assessment of Erectile Dysfunction: Historical Precedents, Current Knowledge, and Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Mark D.; Carey, Michael P.

    1995-01-01

    Describes the role of the psychologist in the evaluation of erectile dysfunction. Reviews current diagnostic criteria and provides a historical overview of the topic. Summarizes current epidemiologic knowledge, including data on prevalence and research on cognitive, affective, dydactic, and lifestyle etiologic risk factors. Discusses assessment…

  10. Popper's Theory of the Searchlight : A Historical Assessment of Its Significance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ter Hark, Michel; Parusnikova, Z; Cohen, R

    2009-01-01

    On the basis of a correspondence between Karl Popper and the Dutch psychologist Adriaan de Groot, it is argued that the former's epistemology of the searchlight is historically rooted in early cognitive psychology of Otto Selz. It is furthermore argued that Popper's later critique of information pro

  11. Immmigrants and their associations: A global and historical perspective Los inmigrantes y sus asociaciones: Una perspectiva histórica y global

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José C. Moya

    2008-09-01

    sociability. The paper addresses the class and gender composition of memberships, compares the associative practices of the late 19th century’s immigrants with those of the early 21st century, and discusses the issue of state involvement. The essay shows, from a global and historical perspective, how quasi-universal processes and local and temporal specificities shaped associational practices in a way that transcended the ethno-national traditions and characteristics of particular immigrant groups and host countries.

  1. Management Alternatives and Environmental Assessment, Mormon Row Historic District Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming

    OpenAIRE

    United States, Department of the Interior, National Park Service

    1999-01-01

    Few people visiting Mormon Row today realize that the six remaining homesteads constitute about a fifth of those that once defined the Mormon Row community. Time and the harsh climate have taken an extreme toll. Most structures that remain stand abandoned and in need of repair. The farms are not interpreted and most visitors probably do not even know that the historic area is within the boundaries of Grand Teton National Park. Nevertheless, the area receives a light but steady amount of v...

  2. Standardization of peeling tests for assessing the cohesion and consolidation characteristics of historic stone surfaces

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Drdácký, Miloš; Lesák, Jaroslav; Rescic, S.; Slížková, Zuzana; Tiano, P.; Valach, Jaroslav

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 4 (2012), s. 505-520. ISSN 1359-5997 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA103/09/2067; GA MŠk(CZ) 7E08083 Grant ostatní: evropská komise(XE) FP-NMP-2007-SME-1-2136 Institutional support: RVO:68378297 Keywords : peeling test * historic stone * cohesion Subject RIV: AL - Art, Architecture, Cultural Heritage Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2012

  3. The use of taxation records in assessing historical floods in South Moravia, Czech Republic

    OpenAIRE

    R. Brázdil; K. Chromá; Řezníčková, L.; H. Valášek; L. Dolák; Stachoň, Z.; E. Soukalová; P. Dobrovolný

    2014-01-01

    Since the second half of the 17th century, tax relief has been available to farmers and landowners to offset flood damage to property (buildings) and land (fields, meadows, pastures, gardens) in South Moravia, Czech Republic. Historically, the written applications for this were supported by a relatively efficient bureaucratic process that left a clear data trail of documentation, preserved at several levels: in the communities affected, in regional offices, and in the Moravi...

  4. Assessing the Stability of Hydrologic and Associated Biogeochemical and Geomorphic Regimes Using Historical Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, J.; Kim, H.; Kumar, S.; Pastore, C.; Bain, D.; Green, M.; Pellerin, B.

    2008-12-01

    This presentation develops a foundation for future research into analyzing the stability of water quality and sediment dynamics by synthesizing existing studies and utilizing knowledge gleaned from contemporary long- term and experimental research sites. We synthesize existing historical biogeochemical and geomorphological studies for the Eastern US and present a possible path toward estimating these system stabilities through time. We hypothesize that understanding how trends in water quality and quantity change over multiple centuries will lead to improved environmental management and planning strategies. A suite of methods (sediment cores and pollen counts, tree rings, and social, historical data) were used to reconstruct historical hydrologic regimes. With this information we then utilize existing studies and contemporary scientific findings to infer biogeochemical and sediment regimes at a regional scale. This methodology explicitly accounts for human actions and highlights fundamental research needs. While uncertainty in reconstructing hydrologic data compounds when analyzing biogeochemistry and fluvial geomorphology, we argue that the trends and trajectories evident from this type of approach yield important insights into human-environment interactions, inform current management/restoration efforts and improve future predictions. One early finding suggests that nutrient management at a river basin scale could be conducted differently throughout the basin depending on current uses, legacy effects, and hydrologic connectivity.

  5. Historical flood information and their utility in contemporary flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, Neil; Kjeldsen, Thomas; Lang, Michel; Mediero, Luis

    2014-05-01

    The COST Action ES0901 on 'European procedures for flood frequency estimation' has initiated the collection information on how historical flood records are incorporated into flood frequency analysis across Europe, the survey also examines methods, practices and extent of historical information in each country, with notable variability across Europe. Currently, flood frequency is most commonly based on systematic instrumental data, collected by a variety of station authorities/bodies across Europe, these stations are of various form and complexity dependent on the level of data accuracy required. A well-know consequence of the extrapolation from short series is the high level of uncertainty associated with estimates of design floods with large return periods. Given that the average record length is typically in the range 20-40 years, hydrologists have attempted to reduce the uncertainty levels by extending available records by bringing flood data from before the beginning of systematic flow recording into the analysis in the form of historical and palaeoflood data, this is included with development and planning regulations in some EU countries and is identified within the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC).

  6. Systematic global assessment of reef fish communities by the Reef Life Survey program

    OpenAIRE

    Edgar, Graham J.; Stuart-Smith, Rick D

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of patterns in macroecology, including those most relevant to global biodiversity conservation, has been hampered by a lack of quantitative data collected in a consistent manner over the global scale. Global analyses of species’ abundance data typically rely on records aggregated from multiple studies where different sampling methods and varying levels of taxonomic and spatial resolution have been applied. Here we describe the Reef Life Survey (RLS) reef fish dataset, which con...

  7. GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Hoogeveen, J.; J.-M. Faurès; L. Peiser; Burke, J.; Giesen, N.

    2015-01-01

    GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to assess water use in irrigated agriculture, the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high-resolution data sets that are consistent at global level and calibrated against values for internal renewable water resources, as published in AQUASTAT, the FAO's global informa...

  8. Assessing Compatibility of Direct Detection Data: Halo-Independent Global Likelihood Analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Gelmini, Graciela B.; Huh, Ji-Haeng; Witte, Samuel J.

    2016-01-01

    We present two different halo-independent methods utilizing a global maximum likelihood that can assess the compatibility of dark matter direct detection data given a particular dark matter model. The global likelihood we use is comprised of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Poisson or Gaussian likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function and construct a two sided pointwise confidence band, which can then be compared with those derived f...

  9. GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Hoogeveen, J.; J.-M. Faurès; Peiser, L.; Burke, J; Giesen, N. van de

    2015-01-01

    GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by FAO to assess water use in irrigated agriculture; the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high resolution datasets that are consistent at global level and calibrated against values for Internal Renewable Water Resources, as published in AQUASTAT, FAO's global information system on water and agriculture. Validation...

  10. GlobWat - a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Hoogeveen, J.; Faures, J. M.; Peiser, L.; Burke, J; Giesen, N. C.

    2015-01-01

    GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to assess water use in irrigated agriculture, the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high-resolution data sets that are consistent at global level and calibrated against values for internal renewable water resources, as published in AQUASTAT, the FAO's global information system on wat...

  11. Assessing Students' Communication Skills: Validation of a Global Rating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheffer, Simone; Muehlinghaus, Isabel; Froehmel, Annette; Ortwein, Heiderose

    2008-01-01

    Communication skills training is an accepted part of undergraduate medical programs nowadays. In addition to learning experiences its importance should be emphasised by performance-based assessment. As detailed checklists have been shown to be not well suited for the assessment of communication skills for different reasons, this study aimed to…

  12. A Global Perspective on Psycho-Educational Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, Linda; Islam, Shaheen; Su, Hui; Younesian, Sharifeh

    2015-01-01

    For psychologists in less developed countries, psycho-educational assessment is often challenging due to a lack of specialist training and a scarcity of appropriate, psychometrically robust instruments. This article focuses on school psychology and psycho-educational assessment in three countries: Bangladesh, China and Iran. Despite differences in…

  13. Historical Earthquake Records and their Application for Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment in Tianshui, Gansu Province, Northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Wang, Z.

    2009-12-01

    Tianshui, located in southeastern Gansu Province of northwestern China, was a center of early Chinese civilization and the birthplace of “Ba Gua” or “eight symbols.” It has a long history of earthquakes and many strong and large earthquakes have occurred there. Earthquakes, ancient or modern ones, have not only been well recorded, but also left marks on many historical landmarks and buildings that can still be seen today. For example, major damage by the 1654 Tianshui earthquake (M8.0) and some minor damage by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake can be seen in the Maiji Grotto. A new effort to investigate and reexamine the historical macroseismic records is under way, with the aim of better seismic hazard and risk assessment for the Tianshui area. Seismic hazard and risk will be assessed for the Tianshui area using the 2,500 years of intensity observations (records). The results will be used by local governments and communities for developing more effective mitigation policies in the aftermath of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The results will also be compared to hazard and risk assessments derived from other approaches, such as probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses.

  14. Defining and Assessing Public Health Functions: A Global Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Harris, Meggan; Jakubowski, Elke; Kluge, Hans

    2016-01-01

    Given the broad scope and intersectoral nature of public health structures and practices, there are inherent difficulties in defining which services fall under the public health remit and in assessing their capacity and performance. The aim of this study is to analyze how public health functions and practice have been defined and operationalized in different countries and regions around the world, with a specific focus on assessment tools that have been developed to evaluate the performance of essential public health functions, services, and operations. Our review has identified nearly 100 countries that have carried out assessments, using diverse analytical and methodological approaches. The assessment processes have evolved quite differently according to administrative arrangements and resource availability, but some key contextual factors emerge that seem to favor policy-oriented follow-up. These include local ownership of the assessment process, policymakers' commitment to reform, and expert technical advice for implementation. PMID:26789385

  15. Globalization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范玮丽

    2008-01-01

    This paper mainly talks about the currently hot topic-globalization. Firstly, it brings out the general trend about globalization and how to better understand its implication. Secondly, it largely focuses on how to deal with it properly, especially for international marketers. Then, facing with the overwhelming trend, it is time for us to think about seriously what has globalization brought to us. Last but not least, it summarized the author's personal view about the future of globalization and how should we go.

  16. Covariant energy density functionals: The assessment of global performance across the nuclear landscape

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The assessment of the global performance of the state-of-the-art covariant energy density functionals and related theoretical uncertainties in the description of ground state observables has recently been performed. Based on these results, the correlations between global description of binding energies and nuclear matter properties of covariant energy density functionals have been studied in this contribution

  17. Covariant energy density functionals: the assessment of global performance across the nuclear landscape

    CERN Document Server

    Afanasjev, A V

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the global performance of the state-of-the-art covariant energy density functionals and related theoretical uncertainties in the description of ground state observables has recently been performed. Based on these results, the correlations between global description of binding energies and nuclear matter properties of covariant energy density functionals have been studied in this contribution.

  18. Health effects of global warming: Problems in assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global warming is likely to result in a variety of environmental effects ranging from impacts on species diversity, changes in population size in flora and fauna, increases in sea level and possible impacts on the primary productivity of the sea. Potential impacts on human health and welfare have included possible increases in heat related mortality, changes in the distribution of disease vectors, and possible impacts on respiratory diseases including hayfever and asthma. Most of the focus thus far is on effects which are directly related to increases in temperature, e.g., heat stress or perhaps one step removed, e.g., changes in vector distribution. Some of the more severe impacts are likely to be much less direct, e.g., increases in migration due to agricultural failure following prolonged droughts. This paper discusses two possible approaches to the study of these less-direct impacts of global warming and presents information from on-going research using each of these approaches

  19. Health effects of global warming: Problems in assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Longstreth, J.

    1993-06-01

    Global warming is likely to result in a variety of environmental effects ranging from impacts on species diversity, changes in population size in flora and fauna, increases in sea level and possible impacts on the primary productivity of the sea. Potential impacts on human health and welfare have included possible increases in heat related mortality, changes in the distribution of disease vectors, and possible impacts on respiratory diseases including hayfever and asthma. Most of the focus thus far is on effects which are directly related to increases in temperature, e.g., heat stress or perhaps one step removed, e.g., changes in vector distribution. Some of the more severe impacts are likely to be much less direct, e.g., increases in migration due to agricultural failure following prolonged droughts. This paper discusses two possible approaches to the study of these less-direct impacts of global warming and presents information from on-going research using each of these approaches.

  20. Global optimization of maintenance and surveillance testing based on reliability and probabilistic safety assessment. Research project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Background, objective, scope, detailed working plan and follow-up and final product of the project ''Global optimization of maintenance and surveillance testing based on reliability and probabilistic safety assessment'' are described

  1. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given...

  2. Assessment of global atmospheric ammonia using IASI infrared satellite observations

    OpenAIRE

    M. Van Damme

    2015-01-01

    ENGLISH:The natural nitrogen cycle has been and is significantly perturbed by anthropogenic emissions of reactive nitrogen (Nr) compounds into the atmosphere, resulting from our production of energy and food. In the last century global ammonia (NH3) emissions have doubled and represent nowadays more than half of total the Nr emissions. NH3 is also the principal atmospheric base in the atmosphere and rapidly forms aerosols by reaction with acids. It is therefore a species of high relevance for...

  3. Global Assessment of Human-induced Soil Degradation (GLASOD)

    OpenAIRE

    Oldeman, L.R.; Hakkeling, R.T.A.; Sombroek, W.G.; Batjes, N.H.

    2014-01-01

    The GLASOD project (1987-1990) has produced a world map of human-induced soil degradation. Data were complied in cooperation with a large number of soil scientists throughout the world, using uniform Guidelines and international correlation. The status of soil degradation was mapped within loosely defined physiographic units (polygons), based on expert judgement. The type, extent, degree, rate and main causes of degradation have been printed on a global map, at a scale of 1:10 million, and do...

  4. GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION: ASSESSING MODEL VALIDITY

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Keeney, Roman; Valenzuela, Ernesto

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a validation experiment of a global CGE trade model widely used for analysis of trade liberalization. We focus on the ability of the model to reproduce price volatility in wheat markets. The literature on model validation is reviewed with an eye towards designing an appropriate methodology for validating large scale CGE models. The validation experiment results indicate that in its current form, the GTAP-AGR model is incapable of reproducing wheat market price volatility a...

  5. Ictal Neuropsychological Assessment in a Patient with Transient Global Amnesia

    OpenAIRE

    Na, Ju-Young; Chae, Hee-Yun; Huh, So-Young; Kim, Meyung-Kug; Yoo, Bong-Goo

    2013-01-01

    Transient global amnesia (TGA) is a temporary amnestic syndrome characterized by anterograde amnesia and variable retrograde amnesia without other focal neurological deficits. Neuropsychological tests during attack in TGA have been rarely reported. We report a 62-year-old man with TGA who was evaluated with detailed neuropsychological tests during attack. Ictal neuropsychological tests showed encoding failure in verbal and visual memory with frontal/executive dysfunction.

  6. Longitudinal data assessment of global stability index in kale leaves

    OpenAIRE

    Alcinei Mistico Azevedo; Valter Carvalho de Andrade Júnior; Carlos Enrrik Pedrosa; Nermy Ribeiro Valadares; Marcos Aurélio Miranda Ferreira; Paulo Roberto Cecon

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Kale plants are usually sold “in natura” in street markets and malls. Kale leaves can have their appearance compromised by dehydration and discoloration due to increased post-harvest time exposure. We aimed to analyze the Global Stability Index (GSI) in kale accessions by means of repeated measurement analysis and curve grouping as a complementary form of superior sample identification with regard to post-harvest preservation. Thirty kale accessions were evaluated using a randomized ...

  7. Relationship between adductor pollicis muscle thickness and subjective global assessment in a cardiac intensive care unit

    OpenAIRE

    Karst, Fernanda Pickrodt; Vieira, Renata Monteiro; Barbiero, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    Objective To verify the relationship between the adductor pollicis muscle thickness test and the subjective global assessment and to correlate it with other anthropometric methods. Methods This observational cross-sectional study was conducted in the intensive care unit of a cardiology hospital in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The hospitalized patients underwent subjective global assessment and adductor pollicis muscle thickness tests on both hands, along with measurement of the rig...

  8. Prediction of malnutrition using modified subjective global assessment-dialysis malnutrition score in patients on hemodialysis

    OpenAIRE

    Vasantha Janardhan; Soundararajan, P.; N Vanitha Rani; Kannan, G.; Thennarasu, P.; Rosney Ann Chacko; C Uma Maheswara Reddy

    2011-01-01

    Malnutrition is widely prevalent among patients on hemodialysis. Malnutrition can be estimated using a fully quantitative scoring system Subjective Global Assessment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score which is simple, reliable and dynamic. The primary objective of the study was to assess the severity of malnutrition in patients with end stage renal disease and undergoing hemodialysis in a tertiary care teaching hospital in Chennai, using Subjective Global Asses sment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score and ...

  9. A Global Rapid Integrated Monitoring System for Water Cycle and Water Resource Assessment (Global-RIMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roads, John; Voeroesmarty, Charles

    2005-01-01

    The main focus of our work was to solidify underlying data sets, the data processing tools and the modeling environment needed to perform a series of long-term global and regional hydrological simulations leading eventually to routine hydrometeorological predictions. A water and energy budget synthesis was developed for the Mississippi River Basin (Roads et al. 2003), in order to understand better what kinds of errors exist in current hydrometeorological data sets. This study is now being extended globally with a larger number of observations and model based data sets under the new NASA NEWS program. A global comparison of a number of precipitation data sets was subsequently carried out (Fekete et al. 2004) in which it was further shown that reanalysis precipitation has substantial problems, which subsequently led us to the development of a precipitation assimilation effort (Nunes and Roads 2005). We believe that with current levels of model skill in predicting precipitation that precipitation assimilation is necessary to get the appropriate land surface forcing.

  10. Global Assessment of Volcanic Debris Hazards from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watters, Robert J.

    2003-01-01

    Hazard (slope stability) assessment for different sectors of volcano edifices was successfully obtained from volcanoes in North and South America. The assessment entailed Hyperion images to locate portions of the volcano that were hydrothermally altered to clay rich rocks with zones that were also rich in alunite and other minerals. The identified altered rock zones were field checked and sampled. The rock strength of these zones was calculated from the field and laboratory measurements. Volcano modeling utilizing the distinct element method and limit equilibrium technique, with the calculated strength data was used to assess stability and deformation of the edifice. Modeling results give indications of possible failure volumes, velocities and direction. The models show the crucial role hydrothermally weak rock plays in reducing the strength o the volcano edifice and the rapid identification of weak rock through remote sensing techniques. Volcanoes were assessed in the Cascade Range (USA), Mexico, and Chile (ongoing).

  11. Standing tree assessment for the maintenance of historic wooden buildings: a case study of a World Heritage site in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin W

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Historic wooden buildings are a symbol of China’s “culture of wood” and require extraction of forest resources for their renovation. In the 21st century, natural resources are limited globally, and sustainable solutions are needed. In this study, we established a new method to connect building and forest sites for efficient utilization of limited forest resources for the renovation of historic buildings. We obtained measurements of large wooden components from Shenyang Imperial Palace. We also performed morphometric analyses on 47 thinned, old-growth larch trees to determine the relative taper curve, and selected 108 standing trees for simulation of the tree-height curve in the Mt. Changbai area, Jinlin Province, Northeast China. On the basis of forest metrology, we established an upper tree prediction method. By measuring the diameter at breast height (DBH alone, we could compare size information (e.g., diameter, length for standing trees and wooden building components. This method was then applied to estimate the required DBH class of standing trees for the renovation of Shenyang Imperial Palace.

  12. Assessing changes in urban flood vulnerability through mapping land use from historical information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudou, M.; Danière, B.; Lang, M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an appraisal of the temporal evolution of flood vulnerability of two French cities, Besançon and Moissac, which were largely impacted by floods in January 1910 and March 1930, respectively. Both flood events figure among the most significant events recorded in France during the 20th century, in terms of certain parameters such as the intensity and severity of the flood and spatial extension of the damage. An analysis of historical sources allows the mapping of land use and occupation within the areas affected by the two floods, both in past and present contexts, providing an insight of the complexity of flood risk evolution at a local scale.

  13. The Global Mental Health Assessment Tool - Primary Care Version (GMHAT/PC). Development, reliability and validity

    OpenAIRE

    Sharma, Vimal K; Lepping, Peter; Cummins, Anthony GP; Copeland, John RM; Parhee, Rashmi; Mottram, Patricia

    2004-01-01

    The Global Mental Health Assessment Tool – Primary Care Version (GMHAT/PC) is a computerised clinical assessment tool developed to assess and identify a wide range of mental health problems in primary care. It generates a computer diagnosis, a symptom rating, a self-harm risk assessment, and a referral letter. Patients from primary care and community psychiatric outpatient clinics and a small sample of inpatients were interviewed for a period of two months using the GMHAT/PC...

  14. A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

    OpenAIRE

    Simon N. Gosling; Arnell, Nigel W.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are es...

  15. Assessment of historical surface-water quality data in southwestern Colorado, 1990-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Lisa D.; Schaffrath, Keelin R.; Linard, Joshua I.

    2013-01-01

    The spatial and temporal distribution of selected physical and chemical surface-water-quality characteristics were analyzed at stream sites throughout the Dolores and San Juan River Basins in southwestern Colorado using historical data collected from 1990 through 2005 by various local, State, Tribal, and Federal agencies. Overall, streams throughout the study area were well oxygenated. Values of pH generally were near neutral to slightly alkaline throughout most of the study area with the exception of the upper Animas River Basin near Silverton where acidic conditions existed at some sites because of hydrothermal alteration and(or) historical mining. The highest concentrations of dissolved aluminum, total recoverable iron, dissolved lead, and dissolved zinc were measured at sites located in the upper Animas River Basin. Thirty-two sites throughout the study area had at least one measured concentration of total mercury that exceeded the State chronic aquatic-life criterion of 0.01 μg/L. Concentrations of dissolved selenium at some sites exceeded the State chronic water-quality standard of 4.6 μg/L. Total ammonia, nitrate, nitrite, and total phosphorus concentrations generally were low throughout the study area. Overall, results from the trend analyses indicated improvement in water-quality conditions as a result of operation of the Paradox Valley Unit in the Dolores River Basin and irrigation and water-delivery system improvements made in the McElmo Creek Basin (Lower San Juan River Basin) and Mancos River Valley (Upper San Juan River Basin).

  16. The Global Burden of Disease assessments--WHO is responsible?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Stein

    Full Text Available The Global Burden of Disease (GBD concept has been used by the World Health Organization (WHO for its reporting on health information for nearly 10 years. The GBD approach results in a single summary measure of morbidity, disability, and mortality, the so-called disability-adjusted life year (DALY. To ensure transparency and objectivity in the derivation of health information, WHO has been urged to use reference groups of external experts to estimate burden of disease. Under the leadership and coordination of WHO, expert groups have been appraising and abstracting burden of disease information. Examples include the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG, the Malaria Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group (MERG, and the recently established Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG. The structure and functioning of and lessons learnt by these groups are described in this paper. External WHO expert groups have provided independent scientific health information while operating under considerable differences in structure and functioning. Although it is not appropriate to devise a single "best practice" model, the common thread described by all groups is the necessity of WHO's leadership and coordination to ensure the provision and dissemination of health information that is to be globally accepted and valued.

  17. Building global models for fat and total protein content in raw milk based on historical spectroscopic data in the visible and short-wave near infrared range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melenteva, Anastasiia; Galyanin, Vladislav; Savenkova, Elena; Bogomolov, Andrey

    2016-07-15

    A large set of fresh cow milk samples collected from many suppliers over a large geographical area in Russia during a year has been analyzed by optical spectroscopy in the range 400-1100nm in accordance with previously developed scatter-based technique. The global (i.e. resistant to seasonal, genetic, regional and other variations of the milk composition) models for fat and total protein content, which were built using partial least-squares (PLS) regression, exhibit satisfactory prediction performances enabling their practical application in the dairy. The root mean-square errors of prediction (RMSEP) were 0.09 and 0.10 for fat and total protein content, respectively. The issues of raw milk analysis and multivariate modelling based on the historical spectroscopic data have been considered and approaches to the creation of global models and their transfer between the instruments have been proposed. Availability of global models should significantly facilitate the dissemination of optical spectroscopic methods for the laboratory and in-line quantitative milk analysis. PMID:26948605

  18. Aviation Medicine: global historical perspectives and the development of Aviation Medicine alongside the growth of Singapore's aviation landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, W H; Low, R; Singh, J

    2011-05-01

    Aviation Medicine traces its roots to high altitude physiology more than 400 years ago. Since then, great strides have been made in this medical specialty, initially catalysed by the need to reduce pilot medical attrition during the World Wars, and more recently, fuelled by the explosive growth in globalised commercial air travel. This paper traces the historical milestones in Aviation Medicine, and maps its development in Singapore since the 1960s. Advancements in military aviation platforms and technology as well as the establishment of Singapore as an international aviation hub have propelled Aviation Medicine in Singapore to the forefront of many domains. These span Aviation Physiology training, selection medical standards, performance maximisation, as well as crew and passenger protection against communicable diseases arising from air travel. The year 2011 marks the centennial milestone of the first manned flight in Singapore, paving the way for further growth of Aviation Medicine as a mature specialty in Singapore. PMID:21633764

  19. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  20. Assessment of Global Variability in UTBB MOSFETs in Subthreshold Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergej Makovejev

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The global variability of ultra-thin body and buried oxide (UTBB MOSFETs in subthreshold and off regimes of operation is analyzed. The variability of the off-state drain current, subthreshold slope, drain-induced barrier lowering (DIBL, gate leakage current, threshold voltage and their correlations are considered. Two threshold voltage extraction techniques were used. It is shown that the transconductance over drain current (gm/Id method is preferable for variability studies. It is demonstrated that the subthreshold drain current variability in short channel devices cannot be described by threshold voltage variability. It is suggested to include the effective body factor incorporating short channel effects in order to properly model the subthreshold drain current variability.

  1. Subjective global assessment of nutritional status is strongly associated with mortality in chronic dialysis patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Mutsert, Renee; Grootendorst, Diana C.; Boeschoten, Elisabeth W.; Brandts, Hans; van Manen, Jeannette G.; Krediet, Raymond T.; Dekker, Friedo W.

    2009-01-01

    Background: The subjective global assessment of nutritional status (SGA) is used to assess the nutritional status of chronic dialysis patients, but longitudinal data in relation to mortality risk are lacking. Objective: Our objective was to study the long-term and time-dependent associations of the

  2. Historical Relationship Between Performance Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Other Types of Risk Assessment in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RECHARD,ROBERT P.

    2000-07-14

    This paper describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed to the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built upon methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty and the tools used to evaluate it.

  3. Historical Relationship Between Performance Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Other Types of Risk Assessment in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed to the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built upon methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty and the tools used to evaluate it

  4. Pain assessment: global use of the Brief Pain Inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleeland, C S; Ryan, K M

    1994-03-01

    Poorly controlled cancer pain is a significant public health problem throughout the world. There are many barriers that lead to undertreatment of cancer pain. One important barrier is inadequate measurement and assessment of pain. To address this problem, the Pain Research Group of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Symptom Evaluation in Cancer Care has developed the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI), a pain assessment tool for use with cancer patients. The BPI measures both the intensity of pain (sensory dimension) and interference of pain in the patient's life (reactive dimension). It also queries the patient about pain relief, pain quality, and patient perception of the cause of pain. This paper describes the development of the Brief Pain Inventory and the various applications to which the BPI is suited. The BPI is a powerful tool and, having demonstrated both reliability and validity across cultures and languages, is being adopted in many countries for clinical pain assessment, epidemiological studies, and in studies of the effectiveness of pain treatment. PMID:8080219

  5. Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.

  6. A new assessment of global mean sea level from altimeters highlights a reduction of global trend from 2005 to 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ablain

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A new error budget assessment of the global Mean Sea Level (MSL determined by TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 altimeter satellites between January 1993 and June 2008 is presented. We discuss all potential errors affecting the calculation of the global MSL rate. We also compare altimetry-based sea level with tide gauge measurements over the altimetric period. This allows us to provide a realistic error budget of the MSL rise measured by satellite altimetry. These new calculations highlight a reduction in the rate of sea level rise since 2005, by ~2 mm/yr. This represents a 60% reduction compared to the 3.3 mm/yr sea level rise (glacial isostatic adjustment correction applied measured between 1993 and 2005. Since November 2005, MSL is accurately measured by a single satellite, Jason-1. However the error analysis performed here indicates that the recent reduction in MSL rate is real.

  7. Distribution, sources and ecological risk assessment of PAHs in historically contaminated surface sediments at Bhavnagar coast, Gujarat, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudhagara, Dushyant R; Rajpara, Rahul K; Bhatt, Jwalant K; Gosai, Haren B; Sachaniya, Bhumi K; Dave, Bharti P

    2016-06-01

    The concentration, distribution and ecological risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been investigated in surface sediments near Bhavnagar coast. The concentration of ∑PAHs ranged from 5.02 to 981.18 μg g(-1) dry weight, indicating heavy pollution compared to other historically polluted study sites. It was found to be introduced via mixed origins such as burning of gas, oil, coal, production of petrochemicals, cement, and rubber tires. Domestic fuel burning and motor vehicles are also culprits for air pollution. Industrial effluents and accidental oil spillage can also be considered. PAHs can be exposed through air, water, soil and food sources including ingestion, inhalation, and dermal content in both occupational and non-occupational levels by single or sometimes multiple exposures routes concomitantly. Furthermore, diagnostic ratios, statistical principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) models have confirmed that the sources of PAHs were both - petrogenic and pyrogenic. For both the sites, assessment of ecological risk of the elevated levels of these pollutants has been exercised based on toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) and risk quotient (RQ) methods. The composite results indicated accurately that both the sites, bears potentially acute and chronic health hazards such as decreased immune functionality, genotoxicity, malignancy and developmental malfunctions in humans. The sites studied here and the workers have been exposed to hazardous pollutants for a longer period of time. Evidences indicate that mixtures of PAHs are carcinogenic to humans, based on occupational studies on workers, exposed to these pollutants. Hence, the present study and statistical approaches applied herein clearly indicate the historic mix routes of PAHs that resulted in magnified concentrations leading to high ecosystem risk. Thus, the scientific communities are urged to develop strategies to minimize the concentrations of PAHs from

  8. Flash flood frequency assessment from historical data in an ungauged basin: the Ondara River at Tàrrega (NE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasch, J. C.; Tuset, J.; Ruiz-Bellet, J. Ll.

    2010-09-01

    (2001) plotting-position methodology for non-systematic data series was used to estimate the return period of each reconstructed peak flow. Finally, a type I extreme value distribution (Gumbel) was graphically fitted to these coupled values (peak flow-return period). The reconstructed sediment-laden peak flows of the six floods and their plotting-position-derived return period were: 1600 m3s-1 and 667 years (1644 flood); 1200 m3s-1 and 239 years (1874 flood); 500 m3s-1 and 146 years (1783 flood); 250 m3s-1 and 105 years (1842, 1930 and 1989 floods). The Gumbel distribution fitted to these coupled values gave the following expected peak flows: Q100years de 275 m3s-1, Q500years de 1500 m3s-1 and Q1000years de 2500 m3s-1. The goodness of fit, calculated with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for a four-sized sample (since 1842, 1930 and 1989 floods have the same magnitude) and a type I error of 1%, was accepted. This relationship between flood magnitude and frequency for the Ondara River at Tàrrega -estimated through historical reconstruction procedures- is very different from the one calculated by the Catalan Hydraulic Authority in the Civil Protection Plan Against Flood Risk (INUNCAT) with a rainfall-discharge global modelling using maximum rainfall data series, which gives the following values: Q100years de 87 m3s-1, Q500years de 164 m3s-1 and Q1000years de 231 m3s-1. This difference may have three explanations: 1) The type I error for rejecting the null hypothesis, that is, for rejecting the goodness of fit of the Gumbel distribution, was too low (1%) 2) Since the peak flows have been calculated with a rainfall-discharge model, the INUNCAT return periods are those of the rain depths instead of those of the peak flows; and, since the relationship between the magnitude of the rainstorm and that of its resulting flood is not bijective -unlike a rainfall-discharge modelling assumes-, the return periods are not correct. 3) The INUNCAT flows are calculated from daily rainfall

  9. Field Plot and Accuracy Assessment Points for Bent's Old Fort National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — Accuracy Assessment, Observation and Plot Points. Plots within the park were identified and sampled in the summer of 2005. In the summer of 2006, randomly selected...

  10. Field Plot and Accuracy Assessment Points for Palo Alto Battlefield National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — Accuracy Assessment, Observation and Plot Points. Plot data were collected from 2000-2003; however, minimal attributes were maintained and a plots database was not...

  11. Accuracy Assessment Points for Fort Laramie National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — The accuracy assessment field work was performed in August and September, 1998 to verify the accuracy of the vegetation communities spatial data developed by the...

  12. Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project - Field Plots, Observation and Accuracy Assessment Points

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This metadata is for the 2008 vegetation (classification) field plots (spatial database) and 2010 accuracy assessment points (spatial database) created from the...

  13. ASSESSING AND MANAGING MERCURY FROM HISTORIC AND CURRENT MINING ACTIVITIES (PROGRAM FLYER)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The conference is designed to achieve three primary goals:Convey public, non-profit and priva sector perspectives on the assessment and management of mercury associated with mining processes, residuals and environmental impactersIdentify data gaps and information ...

  14. A Global Assessment of Fast Reactors in the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Various criteria will be presented and used for assessing the future of sodium cooled fast reactors (SFRs) on a worldwide basis, including sustainability, economics, contribution to maintaining nuclear R&D excellence, long term acceptability of nuclear energy, leading position in nuclear energy industry for countries developing SFRs and diversification of the risks and insurance. One of the main concerns is public acceptance, which may vary over time for a number of reasons. If it is assumed that safety and non-proliferation concerns will be dealt with effectively, acceptance will most probably be obtained and the question will not be whether to launch SFRs on an industrial scale, but when and where. An assessment of the market will also be provided in this paper. The world market for industrial Gen IV SFRs is expected to be between 0 and 2 units (1500 MW(e)) per year based on an optimistic approach, before economic competitiveness is reached, and 10–15 later. Though there are large uncertainties on the exact period at which economic competitiveness will be reached, it is most probably likely to occur sometime during the second half of the century. In the future, the advantages of SFRs will likely grow significantly faster than any disadvantages. (author)

  15. The analysis of historical seismograms: an important tool for seismic hazard assessment. Case histories from French and Italian earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seismic hazard assessment relies on the knowledge of the source characteristics of past earthquakes. Unfortunately, seismic waveform analysis, representing the most powerful tool for the investigation of earthquake source parameters, is only possible for events occurred in the last 100-120 years, i.e., since seismographs with known response function were developed. Nevertheless, during this time significant earthquakes have been recorded by such instruments and today, also thanks to technological progress, these data can be recovered and analysed by means of modern techniques. In this paper, aiming at giving a general sketch of possible analyses and attainable results in historical seismogram studies, I briefly describe the major difficulties in processing the original waveforms and present a review of the results that I obtained from previous seismogram analysis of selected significant historical earthquakes occurred during the first decades of the 20. century, including (A) the December 28, 1908, Messina straits (southern Italy), (B) the June 11, 1909, Lambesc (southern France) - both of which are the strongest ever recorded instrumentally in their respective countries - and (C) the July 13, 1930, Irpinia (southern Italy) events. For these earthquakes, the major achievements are represented by the assessment of the seismic moment (A, B, C), the geometry and kinematics of faulting (B, C), the fault length and an approximate slip distribution (A, C). The source characteristics of the studied events have also been interpreted in the frame of the tectonic environment active in the respective region of interest. In spite of the difficulties inherent to the investigation of old seismic data, these results demonstrate the invaluable and irreplaceable role of historical seismogram analysis in defining the local seismo-genic potential and, ultimately, for assessing the seismic hazard. The retrieved information is crucial in areas where important civil engineering works

  16. Prediction of malnutrition using modified subjective global assessment-dialysis malnutrition score in patients on hemodialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasantha Janardhan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Malnutrition is widely prevalent among patients on hemodialysis. Malnutrition can be estimated using a fully quantitative scoring system Subjective Global Assessment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score which is simple, reliable and dynamic. The primary objective of the study was to assess the severity of malnutrition in patients with end stage renal disease and undergoing hemodialysis in a tertiary care teaching hospital in Chennai, using Subjective Global Asses sment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score and correlate it with standard indicators of malnutrition like anthropometric and biochemical parameters of the study population by Pearson′s correlation. Anthropometric assessment included height, body weight, triceps skin fold thickness, mid arm circumference, mid arm muscle circumference % and biochemical parameters included serum albumin, transferrin, ferritin, total protein, total cholesterol, blood urea nitrogen and creatinine. Based on the scores, of the 66 patients, 91% were moderately malnourished. There was a significant negative correlation between modified Subjective Global Assessment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score and anthropometric measures such as triceps skin fold thickness, mid arm circumference, mid arm muscle circumference; biochemical markers such as albumin, transferrin and ferritin. The data obtained from this study confirm that a high degree of malnutrition was prevalent in patients on hemodialysis, as shown by anthropometric assessment, biochemical markers of malnutrition and Subjective Global Assessment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score. Nutritional status as determined by Subjective Global Assessment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score is a useful and reliable index for identifying patients at risk for malnutrition and it correlates well with anthropometric and biochemical assessment. may be integrated in regular assessment of malnutrition in patients on maintenance hemodialysis.

  17. Breccia-pipe uranium mining in northern Arizona; estimate of resources and assessment of historical effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bills, Donald J.; Brown, Kristin M.; Alpine, Andrea E.; Otton, James K.; Van Gosen, Bradley S.; Hinck, Jo Ellen; Tillman, Fred D

    2011-01-01

    About 1 million acres of Federal land in the Grand Canyon region of Arizona were temporarily withdrawn from new mining claims in July 2009 by the Secretary of the Interior because of concern that increased uranium mining could have negative impacts on the land, water, people, and wildlife. During a 2-year interval, a Federal team led by the Bureau of Land Management is evaluating the effects of withdrawing these lands for extended periods. As part of this team, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a series of short-term studies to examine the historical effects of breccia-pipe uranium mining in the region. The USGS studies provide estimates of uranium resources affected by the possible land withdrawal, examine the effects of previous breccia-pipe mining, summarize water-chemistry data for streams and springs, and investigate potential biological pathways of exposure to uranium and associated contaminants. This fact sheet summarizes results through December 2009 and outlines further research needs.

  18. New Measures Assessing Predictors of Academic Persistence for Historically Underrepresented Racial/Ethnic Undergraduates in Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byars-Winston, Angela; Rogers, Jenna; Branchaw, Janet; Pribbenow, Christine; Hanke, Ryan; Pfund, Christine

    2016-01-01

    An important step in broadening participation of historically underrepresented (HU) racial/ethnic groups in the sciences is the creation of measures validated with these groups that will allow for greater confidence in the results of investigations into factors that predict their persistence. This study introduces new measures of theoretically derived factors emanating from social cognitive and social identity theories associated with persistence for HU racial/ethnic groups in science disciplines. The purpose of this study was to investigate: 1) the internal reliability and factor analyses for measures of research-related self-efficacy beliefs, sources of self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and science identity; and 2) potential group differences in responses to the measures, examining the main and interaction effects of gender and race/ethnicity. Survey data came from a national sample of 688 undergraduate students in science majors who were primarily black/African American and Hispanic/Latino/a with a 2:1 ratio of females to males. Analyses yielded acceptable validity statistics and race × gender group differences were observed in mean responses to several measures. Implications for broadening participation of HU groups in the sciences are discussed regarding future tests of predictive models of student persistence and training programs to consider cultural diversity factors in their design. PMID:27521235

  19. Visual assessment of BIPV retrofit design proposals for selected historical buildings using the saliency map method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ran Xu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available With the increasing awareness of energy efficiency, many old buildings have to undergo a massive facade energy retrofit. How to predict the visual impact which solar installations on the aesthetic cultural value of these buildings has been a heated debate in Switzerland (and throughout the world. The usual evaluation method to describe the visual impact of BIPV is based on semantic and qualitative descriptors, and strongly dependent on personal preferences. The evaluation scale is therefore relative, flexible and imprecise. This paper proposes a new method to accurately measure the visual impact which BIPV installations have on a historical building by using the saliency map method. By imitating working principles of the human eye, it is measured how much the BIPV design proposals differ from the original building facade in the aspect of attracting human visual attention. The result is directly presented in a quantitative manner, and can be used to compare the fitness of different BIPV design proposals. The measuring process is numeric, objective and more precise.  

  20. Chemical and biological assessment of Angelica herbal decoction: comparison of different preparations during historical applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wendy Li; Zheng, Ken Yu-Zhong; Zhu, Kevin Yue; Zhan, Janis Ya-Xian; Bi, Cathy Wen-Chuan; Chen, Jian-Ping; Du, Crystal Ying-Qing; Zhao, Kui-Jun; Lau, David Tai-Wai; Dong, Tina Ting-Xia; Tsim, Karl Wah-Keung

    2012-08-15

    The commonly used Angelica herbal decoction today is Danggui Buxue Tang (DBT), which is a dietary supplement in treating menopausal irregularity in women, i.e. to nourish "Qi" and to enrich "Blood". According to historical record, many herbal decoctions were also named DBT, but the most popular formulation of DBT was written in Jin dynasty (1247 AD) of China, which contained Astragali Radix (AR) and Angelicae Sinensis Radix (ASR) with a weight ratio of 5:1. However, at least two other Angelica herbal decoctions recorded as DBT were prescribed in Song (1155 AD) and Qing dynasties (1687 AD). Although AR and ASR are still the major components in the DBT herbal decoctions, they are slightly varied in the herb composition. In order to reveal the efficiency of different Angelica herbal decoctions, the chemical and biological properties of three DBT herbal extracts were compared. Significantly, the highest amounts of AR-derived astragaloside III, astragaloside IV, calycosin and formononetin and ASR-derived ferulic acid were found in DBT described in 1247 AD: this preparation showed stronger activities in osteogenic, estrogenic and erythropoetic effects than the other two DBT. The current results supported the difference of three DBT in chemical and biological properties, which could be a result of different herbal combinations. For the first time, this study supports the popularity of DBT described in 1247 AD. PMID:22902230

  1. Porphyry copper assessment of northeast Asia: Far East Russia and northeasternmost China: Chapter W in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihalasky, Mark J.; Ludington, Stephen; Alexeiev, Dmitriy V.; Frost, Thomas P.; Light, Thomas D.; Briggs, Deborah A.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Wallis, John C.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Panteleyev, Andre

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey assesses resources (mineral, energy, water, environmental, and biologic) at regional, national, and global scales to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources in undiscovered deposits.

  2. Porphyry copper assessment of British Columbia and Yukon Territory, Canada: Chapter C in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihalasky, Mark J.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Frost, Thomas P.; Ludington, Steve

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey does regional, national, and global assessments of resources (mineral, energy, water, biologic) to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources that may be present in undiscovered deposits.

  3. Inequality measures perform differently in global and local assessments: An exploratory computational experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Yen-Sheng

    2015-11-01

    Inequality measures are widely used in both the academia and public media to help us understand how incomes and wealth are distributed. They can be used to assess the distribution of a whole society-global inequality-as well as inequality of actors' referent networks-local inequality. How different is local inequality from global inequality? Formalizing the structure of reference groups as a network, the paper conducted a computational experiment to see how the structure of complex networks influences the difference between global and local inequality assessed by a selection of inequality measures. It was found that local inequality tends to be higher than global inequality when population size is large; network is dense and heterophilously assorted, and income distribution is less dispersed. The implications of the simulation findings are discussed.

  4. Historical changes and future projections of precipitation and its extremes in the 20th and 21st century simulation by a 60-km mesh global atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitoh, A.; Kamiguchi, K.; Arakawa, O.; Kusunoki, S.

    2010-12-01

    Climate of the 20th century simulation was conducted with a 60-km mesh global atmospheric model (MRI-AM60km) from year 1872 to the present, forced with observed historical sea surface temperature and sea ice (HadISST1). Time variations of global and hemisphere average land surface air temperatures are reasonably well simulated in the 20th century. The number of simulated tropical cyclone in the whole globe has decreasing trend throughout the 20th century. Precipitation of the Monsoon Asia region is evaluated against the newly created daily gridded precipitation data set (APHRODITE), which improves topographic features in mountainous regions. The observed data set indicates a delay of the East Asian early summer rainy season (Baiu) in recent decades. The MRI-AM60km well reproduces this feature, but also shows multi-decadal variability. The same model is used for the future climate projections throughout the 21st century. Changes in mountainous precipitaion as well as extreme precipitation are also investigated.

  5. Online Assessment of Satellite-Derived Global Precipitation Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, D.; Teng, W.; Kempler, S.

    2012-01-01

    inter-comparing both versions of TRMM products in their areas of interest. Making this service available to users will help them to better understand associated changes. We plan to implement this inter-comparison in TRMM standard monthly products with the IPWG algorithms. The plans outlined above will complement and accelerate the existing and ongoing validation activities in the community as well as enhance data services for TRMM and the future Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

  6. A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher W Woodall; Grant M Domke; Riley, Karin L.; Christopher M Oswalt; Crocker, Susan J.; Yohe, Gary W.

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the c...

  7. Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management, Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Desai, B; Maskrey, A.; Peduzzi, Pascal; De Bono, Andréa; Herold, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR15), Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management, is the fourth in the series coordinated by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) in the context of the Hyogo Frame - work for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (HFA). This report includes new results regarding the identification of disaster risk. It features a new global characteri...

  8. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming increases the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and this could lead to more intense rainfalls and possibly increasing natural hazards in the form of flooding in some regions. This implies that traditional practice of using historical hydrological records alone is somewhat limited for supporting long-term water infrastructure planning. This has motivated recent global scale studies to evaluate river flood risks (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014, Sadoff et al., 2015) and adaptations benefits (e.g., Jongman et al., 2015). To support decision-making in river flood risk reduction, this study takes a further step to examine the benefits and corresponding residual risks for a range of flood protection levels. To do that, we channelled runoff information of a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and each CMIP5 model (historic and future periods) into a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011). We incorporated the latest global river width data (Yamazaki et al., 2014) into CaMa-Flood and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the flood protection benefits. We quantify the corresponding residual risks using a mathematical approach that is consistent with the modelling structure of CaMa-Flood. Globally and regionally, we find that the benefits of flood protection level peak somewhere between 20 and 500 years; residual risks diminish

  9. Life-cycle-assessment of the historical development of air pollution control and energy recovery in waste incineration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Anders; Riber, C.; Fruergaard, Thilde;

    2010-01-01

    Incineration of municipal solid waste is a debated waste management technology. In some countries it is the main waste management option whereas in other countries it has been disregarded. The main discussion point on waste incineration is the release of air emissions from the combustion of the...... waste, but also the energy recovery efficiency has a large importance. The historical development of air pollution control in waste incineration was studied through life-cycle-assessment modelling of eight different air pollution control technologies. The results showed a drastic reduction in the...... standard impacts. With regards to the toxic impact categories, emissions from the waste incineration process were always larger than those from the avoided energy production based on natural gas. The results shows that the potential environmental impacts from air emissions have decreased drastically during...

  10. Data Mining of Historical Human Data to Assess the Risk of Injury due to Dynamic Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Jesica; Somers, Jeffrey T.; Newby, N.; Gernhardt, Michael

    2014-01-01

    deflection was determined from motion capture video of the impact test. HIC- 15 and BRIC were calculated from head acceleration responses. Given the number of human subjects for each test condition a confidence interval of injury probability will be obtained. RESULTS: Results will be discussed in terms of injury-risk probability estimates based on the human data set evaluated. Also, gaps in the data set will be identified. These gaps could be one of two types. One is areas where additional THOR testing would increase the comparable human data set, thereby improving confidence in the injury probability rate. The other is where additional human testing would assist in obtaining information on other acceleration levels or directions. DISCUSSION: The historical human data showed validity of the THOR ATD for supplemental testing. The historical human data are limited in scope, however. Further data are needed to characterize the effects of sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight on risk of injury

  11. An historical assessment of trace metal accumulation in Lake Champlain, Vermont

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Lake Champlain watershed, with its increased land use, shoreline development, and population, is being threatened by pollutants in the water column and bottom sediments. A comprehensive study is currently being conducted to characterize the bottom sediments of the lake for toxicity and to reconstruct the history of pollutant inputs. Surface sediment samples were collected from 30 stations and analyzed for metal (Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, Ni, Mn, Fe, Cd, Al, and Ag) concentrations to determine the contaminated regions of the lake. Once the contaminated regions were determined, a Nemesis corer was used to retrieve sediments cores averaging 1 meter in length from 10 sites within Lake Champlain. Grain size and metal analyses were conducted at one and two cm intervals down the cores. Grain size data, in combination with metal and radiometric stratigraphy, can serve as an indicator of changing land use in the watershed. The grain size in some cores has a fining upward trend indicating increased land use and soil erosion. Downcore variations in metal concentrations reveal two different regimes. The concentration at depth remain consistently low and are inferred to correspond with the natural background levels. In contrast, the upper section of the cores show abrupt increases in metal concentrations which are attributed to increased anthropogenic inputs. Radiometric (210 and 137Cs) and pollen chronostratigraphy of these cores indicates that the increased metal concentrations and the changes in grain size recorded in the upper most sediments is related to increased human disturbance beginning in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. This study demonstrates that the historical record of pollution inputs to Lake Champlain can be reconstructed from the sediment sequences

  12. The use of taxation records in assessing historical floods in South Moravia, Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Řezníčková, L.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.; Stachoň, Z.; Soukalová, E.; Dobrovolný, P.

    2014-10-01

    Since the second half of the 17th century, tax relief has been available to farmers and landowners to offset flood damage to property (buildings) and land (fields, meadows, pastures, gardens) in South Moravia, Czech Republic. Historically, the written applications for this were supported by a relatively efficient bureaucratic process that left a clear data trail of documentation, preserved at several levels: in the communities affected, in regional offices, and in the Moravian Land Office, all of which are to be found in estate and family collections in the Moravian Land Archives in the city of Brno, the provincial capital. As well as detailed information about damage done and administrative responses to it, data are often preserved as to the flood event itself, the time of its occurrence and its impacts, sometimes together with causes and stages. The final flood database based on taxation records is used here to describe the temporal and spatial density of both flood events and the records themselves. The information derived is used to help create long-term flood chronologies for the rivers Dyje, Jihlava, Svratka and Morava, combining floods interpreted from taxation records with other documentary data and floods derived from later systematic hydrological measurements (water levels, discharges). Common periods of higher flood frequency appear largely in the periods 1821-1850 and 1921-1950, although this shifts to several other decades for individual rivers. A number of uncertainties are inseparable from flood data taxation records: their spatial and temporal incompleteness; the inevitable limitation to larger-scale damage and restriction to the summer half-year; and the different characters of rivers, including land-use changes and channel modifications. Taxation data have considerable potential for extending our knowledge of past floods for the rest of the Czech Republic, not to mention other European countries in which records have survived.

  13. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data – Part 1: Assessment of Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. McMahon

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs and within a GCM. Uncertainty between GCM projections of future climate can be assessed through analysis of runs of a given scenario from a wide range of GCMs. Within GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The objective of this, the first of two complementary papers, is to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by identifying and removing poorly performing GCMs prior to the analysis presented in the second paper. Here we assess how well 46 runs from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3 GCMs are able to reproduce observed precipitation and temperature climatological statistics. The performance of each GCM in reproducing these statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the CRU 3.10 gridded dataset and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index and RMSE between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following five models as the better performing models for the next phase of our analysis in assessing the uncertainty in runoff estimated from GCM projections of precipitation and temperature: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, MIROCM (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo, National

  14. Global Geometric Properties of Martian Impact Craters: An Assessment from Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Digital Elevation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garvin, J. B.; Frawley, J. J.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Schnetzler, C.

    2000-01-01

    Global geometric characteristics of topographically fresh impact craters have been assessed, for the first time, from gridded MOLA topography. Global trends of properties such as depth/diameter differ from previous estimates. Regional differences are observed.

  15. Use of Historical Pump-and-Treat Data to Enhance Site Characterization and Remediation Performance Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Brusseau, Mark L.

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater withdrawal and contaminant concentration data are routinely collected for pump-and-treat operations conducted at hazardous waste sites. These data sets can be mined to produce a wealth of information to support enhanced site characterization, optimization of remedial system operations, and improved decision making regarding long-term site management and closure. Methods that may be used to analyze and interpret pump-and-treat data to produce such assessments are presented, along w...

  16. Probabilistic approach to rock fall hazard assessment: potential of historical data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Dussauge-Peisser

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the rock fall volume distribution for three rock fall inventories and we fit the observed data by a power-law distribution, which has recently been proposed to describe landslide and rock fall volume distributions, and is also observed for many other natural phenomena, such as volcanic eruptions or earthquakes. We use these statistical distributions of past events to estimate rock fall occurrence rates on the studied areas. It is an alternative to deterministic approaches, which have not proved successful in predicting individual rock falls. The first one concerns calcareous cliffs around Grenoble, French Alps, from 1935 to 1995. The second data set is gathered during the 1912–1992 time window in Yosemite Valley, USA, in granite cliffs. The third one covers the 1954–1976 period in the Arly gorges, French Alps, with metamorphic and sedimentary rocks. For the three data sets, we find a good agreement between the observed volume distributions and a fit by a power-law distribution for volumes larger than 50 m3 , or 20 m3 for the Arly gorges. We obtain similar values of the b exponent close to 0.45 for the 3 data sets. In agreement with previous studies, this suggests, that the b value is not dependant on the geological settings. Regarding the rate of rock fall activity, determined as the number of rock fall events with volume larger than 1 m3 per year, we find a large variability from one site to the other. The rock fall activity, as part of a local erosion rate, is thus spatially dependent. We discuss the implications of these observations for the rock fall hazard evaluation. First, assuming that the volume distributions are temporally stable, a complete rock fall inventory allows for the prediction of recurrence rates for future events of a given volume in the range of the observed historical data. Second, assuming that the observed volume distribution follows a power-law distribution without cutoff at small or large scales, we can

  17. Quantitative flood risk assessment in historic cities: sensitivity to hydraulic modeling and open socio-economic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Castelli, Fabio; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Mazzanti, Bernardo

    2014-05-01

    The assessment of flood risk in urban areas is considered nowadays a crucial issue to be addressed by technicians and public authorities and requires the estimation of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Each step of the risk assessment brings its uncertainties to the final result, thus the analysis of the sensitivity to the different contributors is required. Since the damages are generally evaluated through stage-damage functions one of the most important contribution is the estimated value of the water depth. Water depth is the outcome of hydraulic models that can be implemented with different modeling approaches and levels of spatial detail, thus providing flood depth maps that may differ in the extension of the inundated area and in the flood depth value. It is generally argued that 2D models are the most suitable to describe flood behavior in the urban environment although most of applications are carried out in small and sparse urban areas. In the historic cities a 2D model provides reliable results if the grid size is small enough to describe the street/building pattern, implying long simulation runs. Another contribution is given by monetary values assigned to the damage categories that may come from different proxy variables and may oscillate according to the real estate quotations. The risk assessment here presented is made possible thanks to a methodology based on the open data, both socio-economic and territorial, that are available in the web. In this work the risk assessment procedure and the sensitivity analysis are applied to the main cities located along the Arno river, Pisa and Florence (Italy) that are usually considered of broad interest for the importance of urban and cultural heritage. The risk is estimated accounting for structures, household contents, commercial and tertiary sectors which are the most representative of the studied areas. The evaluation and mapping of micro-scale flood risk is carried out in a GIS environment using open data

  18. Assessing the Effects of Corporate Social Responsibility Standards in Global Value Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund-Thomsen, Peter

    This paper considers the issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR) standard impact assessment in global value chains. CSR standards have proliferated in recent years, and several studies have attempted to assess their effects on local producers, workers, and the environment in developing...... countries. However, much less attention has been paid to the “dark side” of impact assessment – the ethical and political dilemmas that arise in the process of carrying out impact studies. This paper addresses this gap in literature, arguing that impact assessments of CSR standards may do more harm than...

  19. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways of...... reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  20. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  1. Forming, transfer and globalization of medical-pharmaceutical knowledge in South East Asian missions (17th to 18th c.) - historical dimensions and modern perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostou, Sabine

    2015-06-01

    From the 17th to the 18th centuries, missionaries in Southeast Asia dedicated themselves to providing and establishing a professional medical-pharmaceutical supply for the local population and therefore explored the genuine Materia medica for easily available and affordable remedies, especially medicinal plants. In characteristic medical-pharmaceutical compendia, which can be classified as missionary pharmacopoeias, they laid down their knowledge to advise others and to guarantee a professional health care. As their knowledge often resulted from an exchange with indigenous communities, these compendia provide essential information about traditional plant uses of Southeast Asian people. Individual missionaries such as the Jesuit Georg Joseph Kamel (1661-1706) not only strove to explore medicinal plants but performed botanical studies and even composed comprehensive herbals. The Jesuit missionaries in particular played roles in both the order's own global network of transfer of medicinal drugs and knowledge about the application, and within the contemporary local and European scientific networks which included, for example, the famous Royal Society of London. The results of their studies were distributed all over the world, were introduced into the practical Materia medica of other regions, and contributed significantly to the academization of knowledge. In our article we will explain the different intentions and methods of exploring, the resulting works and the consequences for the forming of the pharmaceutical and scientific knowledge. Finally, we will show the options which the works of the missionaries can offer for the saving of traditional ethnopharmacological knowledge and for the development of modern phytotherapeutics and pharmaceutical supply. The publication is based on a comprehensive study on the phenomenon of missionary pharmacy which has been published as a book in 2011 (Anagnostou, 2011a) and shows now the potential of historical medical

  2. National Assessment of Oil and Gas Project: Areas of Historical Oil and Gas Exploration and Production in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biewick, Laura R.H.

    2008-01-01

    This report contains maps and associated spatial data showing historical oil and gas exploration and production in the United States. Because of the proprietary nature of many oil and gas well databases, the United States was divided into cells one-quarter square mile and the production status of all wells in a given cell was aggregated. Base-map reference data are included, using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Map, the USGS and American Geological Institute (AGI) Global GIS, and a World Shaded Relief map service from the ESRI Geography Network. A hardcopy map was created to synthesize recorded exploration data from 1859, when the first oil well was drilled in the U.S., to 2005. In addition to the hardcopy map product, the data have been refined and made more accessible through the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. The cell data are included in a GIS database constructed for spatial analysis via the USGS Internet Map Service or by importing the data into GIS software such as ArcGIS. The USGS internet map service provides a number of useful and sophisticated geoprocessing and cartographic functions via an internet browser. Also included is a video clip of U.S. oil and gas exploration and production through time.

  3. Introducing ShakeMap Atlas 2.0: An improved suite of recent historical earthquake ShakeMaps for global hazard analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, D.; Mah, R.T.; Johnson, K.L.; Worden, B.C.; Hearne, M.G.; Marano, K.D.; Lin, K.; Wald, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ShakeMap system is a widely used tool for assessing the ground motion during an earthquake in near-real time applications, but also for past events and seismic scenarios. The ShakeMap Atlas (Allen et al., 2008) is a compilation of nearly 5,000 ShakeMaps of global events that comprises the most damaging and potentially damaging earthquakes between 1973 and 2007. The Atlas is an invaluable resource for investigating strong ground-motion near the source, and it is also used for calibrating the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. Here we present an extensively revised version of the Atlas, which includes as new features the use of: (1) a new version of ShakeMap; (2) an updated source catalog; (3) a refined ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) selection; and (4) many more macroseismic intensity and ground-motion data. The new version of ShakeMap (V3.5; Worden et al., 2010) treats in a separate way native and converted data when mapping each intensity measure (MMI, PGA, PGV, and PSA). This is especially important for intensity observations, which are the main data source in the aftermath of most global events. ShakeMap V3.5 also allows for the inclusion of intensity prediction equations and makes use of improved mapping techniques and uncertainty estimations. Earthquake global hypocenters have been substituted, when possible, for regional locations and, in some cases, finite source models not included before. The Atlas span has been extended till mid 2010, and some older events have also been added for the 1973-2007 period. In order to improve the adequacy of the GMPE used by ShakeMap to estimate the ground shaking for a given event where data are not available, we use a new global selection scheme to discriminate between different types of earthquakes (García et al., 2011). Finally, we have included a large amount of recently available observations from national and regional networks. All these

  4. Assessing the public health effects of global warming: New and ongoing international efforts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patz, J. [Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, MD (United States). Div. of Environmental and Occupational Medicine

    1995-03-01

    The major health outcomes resulting from global warming are expected to occur through alterations in temperature, weather patterns, and sea-level rise. Potential impacts may include increases in heat-related morbidity and mortality, spread of vector-borne diseases, threatened food and fresh water supply, and infrastructural pressures due to extreme weather events and forced human migration. Extensive international coordination will be required both to assess and possibly mitigate these worldwide health ramifications. International organizations have begun to assembly research and monitoring initiatives. CLIMEDAT is a new database sponsored by the World Health Organization to specifically help network international scientists addressing the health-related aspects of global climate change. Under the World Meteorological Organization`s World Climate Program, monitoring systems such as the Global Climate, Global Ocean, and Global Terrestrial Observing Systems are aiding in the global and regional assessment of climate and ecosystem change. The International council of Scientific Unions is encouraging multidisciplinary involvement at several levels; projects include the World Climate Research Program, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, the Human Dimensions Program, and Diversitas (which addresses the role of biodiversity change). The mitigating options of reducing greenhouse gas emissions combined with maximizing carbon dioxide sinks will further require full North/South cooperation.

  5. The challenge of language assessment for african american english-speaking children: a historical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seymour, Harry N

    2004-02-01

    The diagnostic problem of how validly to assess the language of children who speak dialects different from Mainstream American English (MAE) has challenged the field of communication disorders for several decades. The key to its solution is to recognize differences due to dialect or development and remove them from the initial diagnosis of a disorder. A new approach to the puzzle, implemented jointly by University of Massachusetts scholars and the Psychological Corporation (TPC), takes two directions: (1) it provides new normative data on African American English (AAE) development, and (2) it proposes a level of analysis deeper than dialect for the discovery of alternate markers of a disorder. We present three objectives for a language assessment instrument designed to solve this longstanding problem: (1) to answer the problem/no problem question for a given child; (2) to provide explanatory data about the nature of the problem; and (3) to achieve objectives 1 and 2 in a way that is culturally and linguistically fair to both speakers of MAE and speakers of other dialects of English such as AAE. PMID:15088228

  6. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  7. Integrated assessment of the global warming problem: A decision-analytical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The multi-disciplinary character of the global warming problem asks for an integrated assessment approach for ordering and combining the various physical, ecological, economical, and sociological results. The Netherlands initiated their own National Research Program (NRP) on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP). The first phase (NRP-1) identified the integration theme as one of five central research themes. The second phase (NRP-2) shows a growing concern for integrated assessment issues. The current two-year research project 'Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy options, which started in September 1993, comes under the integrated assessment part of the Dutch NRP. The first part of the interim report describes the search for an integrated assessment methodology. It starts with emphasizing the need for integrated assessment at a relatively high level of aggregation and from a policy point of view. The conclusion will be that a decision-analytical approach might fit the purpose of a policy-oriented integrated modeling of the global warming problem. The discussion proceeds with an account on decision analysis and its explicit incorporation and analysis of uncertainty. Then influence diagrams, a relatively recent development in decision analysis, are introduced as a useful decision-analytical approach for integrated assessment. Finally, a software environment for creating and analyzing complex influence diagram models is discussed. The second part of the interim report provides a first, provisional integrated modeling of the global warming problem, emphasizing on the illustration of the decision-analytical approach. Major problem elements are identified and an initial problem structure is developed. The problem structure is described in terms of hierarchical influence diagrams. At some places the qualitative structure is filled with quantitative data

  8. Successful global assessments and monitoring: The roles of the international community and the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Successful global assessments and monitoring of natural resources requires teamwork between participating nations and the international communities charged with the responsibility for collecting and disseminating information. In an attempt to identify emerging information needs and to promote coordination, the International Union of Forestry Research Organizations (IUFRO) and other national and international groups held a major conference and workshop in Venice, Italy, on global monitoring last September. The results of the meeting and subsequent events in Montreal indicated a need for more aggressive leadership at the international level and more cooperation at the national level. This paper reports on the outcome of the Venice conference and list some things that the international community and the United States must do to make global assessments and monitoring a reality

  9. Use of Historical Pump-and-Treat Data to Enhance Site Characterization and Remediation Performance Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusseau, Mark L

    2013-10-01

    Groundwater withdrawal and contaminant concentration data are routinely collected for pump-and-treat operations conducted at hazardous waste sites. These data sets can be mined to produce a wealth of information to support enhanced site characterization, optimization of remedial system operations, and improved decision making regarding long-term site management and closure. Methods that may be used to analyze and interpret pump-and-treat data to produce such assessments are presented, along with a brief illustration of their application to a site. The results presented herein illustrate that comprehensive analysis of pump-and-treat data is a powerful, cost-effective method for providing higher-resolution, value-added characterization of contaminated sites. PMID:24587562

  10. Voiding Chain Cystourethography: Assessing A Historical Test's Role in Selection for Urethrolysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven P Petrou

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective To analyze the benefit of voiding chain cystourethrography (VCC [placing a radiographic opaque chain into the urethra and bladder and asking the patient to void under fluoroscopy] in the urodynamic evaluation of female bladder outlet obstruction (BOO. Materials and Methods Females with post anti-incontinence operation voiding dysfunction who underwent urodynamic evaluation augmented with VCC and later had urethrolysis were identified. Six diagnostic criteria for obstruction were applied to each patient: (1 VCC ( obstructed: chain was angulated and could not be voiding out (2 Video urodynamic study (VUDS (detrusor contraction combined with radiographic obstruction (3 maximum flow (Qmax ≤ 15 cc/sec, detrusor pressure (pDet@ Qmax ≥ 20 cm H20 (4 Qmax ≤ 11 cc/sec, pDet@ Qmax ≥ 25 cm H20 (5 Qmax ≤ 12 cc/sec, pDet@ Qmax ≥ 25 cm H20 (6 Blaivas-Groutz (B-G nomogram. Urethrolysis results were reviewed. Agreement in assessment of BOO criteria was assessed by estimating the proportion of pair-wise agreements along with an exact binomial 95% confidence interval (CI and by estimating kappa along with a 95% CI. Results Twenty-one patients were identified. Twenty of the 22 urethrolyses (91% were clinically successful. Diagnosis of BOO was most common for VCC (86% and then B-G Nomogram (67%. Agreement with the VCC was relatively poor for each of the five other methods (14%-62% with the video urodynamic study (VUDS being the best. Three patients with successful urethrolysis were diagnosed only by the VCC. All of kappa values regarding agreement with the VCC were low; the highest value of 0.15 was observed for VUDS. Conclusion VCC may augment selection criteria for urethrolysis.

  11. Assessment of global expected warming contribution to desertification process development in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessment of moistening condition change in Kazakhstan and its role in processes of desertification at global expected climate warming are cited. Results of numerical experiments by models of common circulation of atmosphere have been used in capacity of potential regional climate change characteristics. (author)

  12. Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creutzig, Felix; Corbera, Esteve; Bolwig, Simon;

    2013-01-01

    Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallholder livelihoods that these m...... scenarios of future bioenergy deployment, thus contributing to a key challenge in sustainability sciences....

  13. GlobWat - a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogeveen, J.; Faures, J.M.; Peiser, L.; Burke, J.; Van de Giesen, N.C.

    2015-01-01

    GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to assess water use in irrigated agriculture, the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed hig

  14. A Biological Condition Gradient Model for Historical Assessment of Estuarine Habitat Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shumchenia, Emily J.; Pelletier, Marguerite C.; Cicchetti, Giancarlo; Davies, Susan; Pesch, Carol E.; Deacutis, Christopher F.; Pryor, Margherita

    2015-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems are affected by ever-increasing natural and human pressures. Because the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics unique to estuarine ecosystems control the ways that biological resources respond to ecosystem stressors, we present a flexible and adaptable biological assessment method for estuaries. The biological condition gradient (BCG) is a scientific framework of biological response to increasing anthropogenic stress that is comprehensive and ecosystem based and evaluates environmental conditions and the status of ecosystem services in order to identify, communicate, and prioritize management action. Using existing data, we constructed the first estuarine BCG framework that examines changes in habitat structure through time. Working in a New England (U.S.) estuary with a long history of human influence, we developed an approach to define a reference level, which we described as a "minimally disturbed" range of conditions for the ecosystem, anchored by observations before 1850 AD. Like many estuaries in the U.S., the relative importance of environmental stressors changed over time, but even qualitative descriptions of the biological indicators' status provided useful information for defining condition levels. This BCG demonstrated that stressors rarely acted alone and that declines in one biological indicator influenced the declines of others. By documenting the biological responses to cumulative stressors, the BCG inherently suggests an ecosystem-based approach to management. Additionally, the BCG process initiates thinking over long time scales and can be used to inspire scientists, managers, and the public toward environmental action.

  15. Ten year historical perspective of the NOAA damage assessment and restoration program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The United States Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA) was enacted to reduce the probability of oil spills in U.S. waters. A key provision of the legislation enables recovery of damages for restoration of injured natural resources and lost services due to oil spills. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed regulations that set out a process for determining the appropriate type and scale of restoration action to accomplish this goal. The restoration plan developed through this process is the basis for an economic claim for natural resource damages. The regulations recognise that various methods, including environmental models, may be used in identifying and quantifying injuries to natural resources and losses of their services and in developing a restoration approach for these injuries. Rather than designating particular assessment measures, NOAA requires each trustee to decide which methodologies are appropriate for each incident, given its particular facts and circumstances. Any procedures chosen must meet the standard in the rule: it must provide information useful for determining restoration needed for an incident, the cost of the method must be commensurate with the quality and quantity of information it is expected to generate, and, of particular significance here, the method must be reliable and valid for the particular incident. This paper describes how methods are selected, how they might be used, and what legal standards would be applied should these methods be used as evidence an litigation. (Author)

  16. Assessing the State of Contamination in a Historic Mining Town Using Sediment Chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez, Mélida; Wu, Shuo-Sheng; Rodriguez, Jameelah R; Jones, Ashton D; Lockwood, Benjamin E

    2016-05-01

    The United States town of Aurora, Missouri, USA, stockpiled lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) mining wastes from the early to mid-1900s in the form of chat piles. Clean-up actions were undertaken at intervals in subsequent years including land leveling and removal of chat. This study assessed the current state of contamination by identifying areas where metals are present at toxic levels. For this purpose, stream sediment samples (N = 100) were collected over a 9 × 12 km area in and around Aurora. Their content of cadmium (Cd), Pb, and Zn were measured, and concentration maps were generated using ArcGIS to categorize affected areas. Metal concentrations varied over a wide range of values with the overall highest values observed in the north-northeast part of Aurora where abundant chat piles had been present. Comparison between observed concentrations and sediment-quality guidelines put the contaminated areas mentioned are above-toxic levels for Cd, Pb and Zn. In contrast, levels in rural areas and the southern part of Aurora were at background levels, thus posing no threat to aquatic habitats. The fact that contamination is constrained to a relatively small area can be advantageously used to implement further remediation and, by doing so, to help protect the underlying karst aquifer. PMID:26847833

  17. Isolated Open Rotor Noise Prediction Assessment Using the F31A31 Historical Blade Set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nark, Douglas M.; Jones, William T.; Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.; Zawodny, Nikolas S.

    2016-01-01

    In an effort to mitigate next-generation fuel efficiency and environmental impact concerns for aviation, open rotor propulsion systems have received renewed interest. However, maintaining the high propulsive efficiency while simultaneously meeting noise goals has been one of the challenges in making open rotor propulsion a viable option. Improvements in prediction tools and design methodologies have opened the design space for next generation open rotor designs that satisfy these challenging objectives. As such, validation of aerodynamic and acoustic prediction tools has been an important aspect of open rotor research efforts. This paper describes validation efforts of a combined computational fluid dynamics and Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings equation methodology for open rotor aeroacoustic modeling. Performance and acoustic predictions were made for a benchmark open rotor blade set and compared with measurements over a range of rotor speeds and observer angles. Overall, the results indicate that the computational approach is acceptable for assessing low-noise open rotor designs. Additionally, this approach may be used to provide realistic incident source fields for acoustic shielding/scattering studies on various aircraft configurations.

  18. The OPAL Project: Open source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James

    2010-05-01

    This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure has been developed to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through: 1) Overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost and technology); 2) Preliminary research, acquisition and familiarisation with all available ELE software packages; 3) Assessment of these 30+ software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4) Loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data. Keywords: OPAL, displacement-based, DBELA, earthquake loss estimation, earthquake loss assessment, open source, HAZUS

  19. Porphyry copper assessment of the Tethys region of western and southern Asia: Chapter V in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zürcher, Lukas; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Mars, John C.; Ludington, Stephen; Zientek, Michael L.; Dunlap, Pamela; Wallis, John C.; Drew, Lawrence J.; Sutphin, David M.; Berger, Byron R.; Herrington, Richard J.; Billa, Mario; Kuşcu, Ilkay; Moon, Charles J.; Richards, Jeremy P.

    2015-01-01

    A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources in porphyry copper deposits in the Tethys region of western and southern Asia was carried out as part of a global mineral resource assessment led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The purpose of the study was to delineate geographic areas as permissive tracts for the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits at a scale of 1:1,000,000 and to provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper likely to be contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in those tracts. The team did the assessment using the USGS three-part form of mineral resource assessment, which is based on (1) mineral deposit and grade-tonnage models constructed from known deposits as analogs for undiscovered deposits, (2) delineation of permissive tracts based on geoscientific information, and (3) estimation of numbers of undiscovered deposits.

  20. Against Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Lotte; Baggesgaard, Mads Anders

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand globalization, we need to consider what globalization is not. That is, in order to understand the mechanisms and elements that work toward globalization, we must, in a sense, read against globalization, highlighting the limitations of the concept and its inherent conflicts....... Only by employing this as a critical practice will we be analytically able to gain a dynamic understanding of the forces of globalization as they unfold today and as they have developed historically....

  1. Against globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Baggesgaard, Mads Anders; Philipsen, Lotte

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand globalization, we need to consider what globalization is not. That is, in order to understand the mechanisms and elements that work toward globalization, we must, in a sense, read against globalization, highlighting the limitations of the concept and its inherent conflicts. Only by employing this as a critical practice will we be analytically able to gain a dynamic understanding of the forces of globalization as they unfold today and as they have developed historically....

  2. Biomass Assessment. Assessment of global biomass potentials and their links to food, water, biodiversity, energy demand and economy. Inventory and analysis of existing studies. Supporting document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This supporting document contains the result from the inventory phase of the biomass assessment of global biomass potentials and their links to food, water, biodiversity, energy demand and economy. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of global biomass potential estimates, focusing on the various factors affecting these potentials, such as food supplies, water use, biodiversity, energy demands and agro-economics

  3. Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software (OPAL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, J. E.

    2011-07-01

    This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure was created to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through: 1. overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost, and technology); 2. preliminary research, acquisition, and familiarisation for available ELE software packages; 3. assessment of these software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4. loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw = 7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment, Crowley et al., 2006), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States, FEMA, USA, 2003) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach, Lindholm et al., 2007) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic, and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data.

  4. Exploring Emotional Sensitivity and Counseling-Related Services: A Needs Assessment Study for Historically Black Colleges and Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Donald S., Jr.; Jamshidi, Ray; Perkins, Michele

    2007-01-01

    This study explored emotional sensitivity and counseling-related needs of 114 African American college students at a historically black college located in the southwestern region of the United States. Despite previous studies, the results suggested that African American college students who attended a historically black college needed similar…

  5. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  6. Global warming impact assessment of a crop residue gasification project—A dynamic LCA perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • A dynamic LCA is proposed considering time-varying factors. • Dynamic LCA is used to highlight GHG emission hotspots of gasification projects. • Indicators are proposed to reflect GHG emission performance. • Dynamic LCA alters the static LCA results. • Crop residue gasification project has high GHG abatement potential. - Abstract: Bioenergy from crop residues is one of the prevailing sustainable energy sources owing to the abundant reserves worldwide. Amongst a wide variety of energy conversion technologies, crop residue gasification has been regarded as promising owing to its higher energy efficiency than that of direct combustion. However, prior to large-scale application of crop residue gasification, the lifetime environmental performance should be investigated to shed light on sustainable strategies. As traditional static life cycle assessment (LCA) does not include temporal information for dynamic processes, we proposed a dynamic life cycle assessment approach, which improves the static LCA approach by considering time-varying factors, e.g., greenhouse gas characterization factors and energy intensity. As the gasification project can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) discharge compared with traditional direct fuel combustion, trade-offs between the benefits of global warming mitigation and the impact on global warming of crop residue gasification should be considered. Therefore, indicators of net global warming mitigation benefit and global warming impact mitigation period are put forward to justify the feasibility of the crop residue gasification project. The proposed dynamic LCA and indicators were then applied to estimate the life cycle global warming impact of a crop residue gasification system in China. Results show that the crop residue gasification project has high net global warming mitigation benefit and a short global warming impact mitigation period, indicating its prominent potential in alleviating global warming impact. During

  7. A Global Refiability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JI Chun-yan; LI Shan-shan; CHEN Ming-lu

    2009-01-01

    Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms.For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms,a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper.The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore plaffoms,it is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation.And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables.A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too.Furthermore,the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method.On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode,the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper.Finally the instantaueous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.

  8. Global assessment of promising forest management practices for sequestration of carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the 1980s, forests covered an estimated 4.08 billion hectares and contained a carbon pool of 1,400 gigatonnes, or 64% of the total terrestrial pool. Forest biomass productivity per unit of land can be enhanced by proper management practices and it is suggested that by implementing such practices, forests could store more carbon globally and thereby slow the increase in atmospheric CO2. Currently, only about 10% of world forests are managed at an active level. An assessment is presented of the amount of carbon that could be sequestered globally by implementing the practices of reforestation, afforestation, natural regeneration, silviculture, and agroforestry. The assessment is based on the development of a global database on managed forest and agroforestry systems. For each of the above five practices, the database contains information on carbon sequestered per hectare, implementation costs, and estimates of the amount of land technically suitable for such practices throughout the world. Results are presented for each practice in the boreal, temperate, and tropical regions. Preliminary estimates show that promising forestry and agroforestry practices could sequester, over a 50-y period, ca 50-100 gigatonnes of carbon at a cost of $170-340 million. This would be a significant contribution as a mitigating measure regarding atmospheric CO2 buildup and projections for global warming, at present rates of anthropogenic carbon emissions (300-400 gigatonnes carbon over 50 y). 19 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs

  9. Assessing Global Water Storage Variability from GRACE: Trends, Seasonal Cycle, Subseasonal Anomalies and Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphrey, Vincent; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2016-03-01

    Throughout the past decade, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has given an unprecedented view on global variations in terrestrial water storage. While an increasing number of case studies have provided a rich overview on regional analyses, a global assessment on the dominant features of GRACE variability is still lacking. To address this, we survey key features of temporal variability in the GRACE record by decomposing gridded time series of monthly equivalent water height into linear trends, inter-annual, seasonal, and subseasonal (intra-annual) components. We provide an overview of the relative importance and spatial distribution of these components globally. A correlation analysis with precipitation and temperature reveals that both the inter-annual and subseasonal anomalies are tightly related to fluctuations in the atmospheric forcing. As a novelty, we show that for large regions of the world high-frequency anomalies in the monthly GRACE signal, which have been partly interpreted as noise, can be statistically reconstructed from daily precipitation once an adequate averaging filter is applied. This filter integrates the temporally decaying contribution of precipitation to the storage changes in any given month, including earlier precipitation. Finally, we also survey extreme dry anomalies in the GRACE record and relate them to documented drought events. This global assessment sets regional studies in a broader context and reveals phenomena that had not been documented so far.

  10. GlobWat - a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogeveen, J.; Faurès, J.-M.; Peiser, L.; Burke, J.; van de Giesen, N.

    2015-09-01

    GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to assess water use in irrigated agriculture, the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high-resolution data sets that are consistent at global level and calibrated against values for internal renewable water resources, as published in AQUASTAT, the FAO's global information system on water and agriculture. Validation of the model is done against mean annual river basin outflows. The water balance is calculated in two steps: first a "vertical" water balance is calculated that includes evaporation from in situ rainfall ("green" water) and incremental evaporation from irrigated crops. In a second stage, a "horizontal" water balance is calculated to determine discharges from river (sub-)basins, taking into account incremental evaporation from irrigation, open water and wetlands ("blue" water). The paper describes the methodology, input and output data, calibration and validation of the model. The model results are finally compared with other global water balance models to assess levels of accuracy and validity.

  11. Rapid Technology Assessment via Unified Deployment of Global Optical and Virtual Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Jeffrey D.; Watkins, A. Neal; Fleming, Gary A.; Leighty, Bradley D.; Schwartz, Richard J.; Ingram, JoAnne L.; Grinstead, Keith D., Jr.; Oglesby, Donald M.; Tyler, Charles

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses recent developments in rapid technology assessment resulting from an active collaboration between researchers at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) at Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB) and the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). This program targets the unified development and deployment of global measurement technologies coupled with a virtual diagnostic interface to enable the comparative evaluation of experimental and computational results. Continuing efforts focus on the development of seamless data translation methods to enable integration of data sets of disparate file format in a common platform. Results from a successful low-speed wind tunnel test at WPAFB in which global surface pressure distributions were acquired simultaneously with model deformation and geometry measurements are discussed and comparatively evaluated with numerical simulations. Intensity- and lifetime-based pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) and projection moire interferometry (PMI) results are presented within the context of rapid technology assessment to enable simulation-based R&D.

  12. Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

  13. Dead shrimp blues: a global assessment of extinction risk in freshwater shrimps (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea).

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Grave, Sammy; Smith, Kevin G; Adeler, Nils A; Allen, Dave J; Alvarez, Fernando; Anker, Arthur; Cai, Yixiong; Carrizo, Savrina F; Klotz, Werner; Mantelatto, Fernando L; Page, Timothy J; Shy, Jhy-Yun; Villalobos, José Luis; Wowor, Daisy

    2015-01-01

    We present the first global assessment of extinction risk for a major group of freshwater invertebrates, caridean shrimps. The risk of extinction for all 763 species was assessed using the IUCN Red List criteria that include geographic ranges, habitats, ecology and past and present threats. The Indo-Malayan region holds over half of global species diversity, with a peak in Indo-China and southern China. Shrimps primarily inhabit flowing water; however, a significant subterranean component is present, which is more threatened than the surface fauna. Two species are extinct with a further 10 possibly extinct, and almost one third of species are either threatened or Near Threatened (NT). Threats to freshwater shrimps include agricultural and urban pollution impact over two-thirds of threatened and NT species. Invasive species and climate change have the greatest overall impact of all threats (based on combined timing, scope and severity of threats). PMID:25807292

  14. Dead shrimp blues: a global assessment of extinction risk in freshwater shrimps (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sammy De Grave

    Full Text Available We present the first global assessment of extinction risk for a major group of freshwater invertebrates, caridean shrimps. The risk of extinction for all 763 species was assessed using the IUCN Red List criteria that include geographic ranges, habitats, ecology and past and present threats. The Indo-Malayan region holds over half of global species diversity, with a peak in Indo-China and southern China. Shrimps primarily inhabit flowing water; however, a significant subterranean component is present, which is more threatened than the surface fauna. Two species are extinct with a further 10 possibly extinct, and almost one third of species are either threatened or Near Threatened (NT. Threats to freshwater shrimps include agricultural and urban pollution impact over two-thirds of threatened and NT species. Invasive species and climate change have the greatest overall impact of all threats (based on combined timing, scope and severity of threats.

  15. Global assessment of seasonal potential distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szyniszewska, Anna M; Tatem, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) is one of the world's most economically damaging pests. It displays highly seasonal population dynamics, and the environmental conditions suitable for its abundance are not constant throughout the year in most places. An extensive literature search was performed to obtain the most comprehensive data on the historical and contemporary spatio-temporal occurrence of the pest globally. The database constructed contained 2328 unique geo-located entries on Medfly detection sites from 43 countries and nearly 500 unique localities, as well as information on hosts, life stages and capture method. Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online. Records from 1980 until present were used for medfly environmental niche modeling. Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt) and a set of seasonally varying environmental covariates were used to predict the fundamental niche of the Medfly on a global scale. Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May-August and September-December. Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species. PMID:25375649

  16. Global assessment of seasonal potential distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Szyniszewska

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly is one of the world's most economically damaging pests. It displays highly seasonal population dynamics, and the environmental conditions suitable for its abundance are not constant throughout the year in most places. An extensive literature search was performed to obtain the most comprehensive data on the historical and contemporary spatio-temporal occurrence of the pest globally. The database constructed contained 2328 unique geo-located entries on Medfly detection sites from 43 countries and nearly 500 unique localities, as well as information on hosts, life stages and capture method. Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online. Records from 1980 until present were used for medfly environmental niche modeling. Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt and a set of seasonally varying environmental covariates were used to predict the fundamental niche of the Medfly on a global scale. Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May-August and September-December. Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species.

  17. An AeroCom Initial Assessment - Optical Properties in Aerosol Component Modules of Global Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kinne, Stefan; Schulz, M.; Textor, C.; Guibert, S.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, T.; Berglen, T.; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, M.; Collins, W.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Easter, Richard C.; Feichter, H.; Fillmore, D.; Ghan, Steven J.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Grini, A.; Hendricks, J.; Herzog, M.; Horrowitz, L.; Isaksen, I.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Kloster, S.; Koch, D.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Krol, M.; Lauer, A.; Lamarque, J. F.; Lesins, G.; Liu, Xiaohong; Lohmann, U.; Montanaro, V.; Myhre, G.; Penner, Joyce E.; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Seland, O.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Tie, X.

    2006-05-29

    The AeroCom exercise diagnoses multi-component aerosol modules in global modeling. In an initial assessment global fields for mass and for mid-visible aerosol optical thickness (aot) were compared among aerosol component modules of 21 different global models. There is general agreement among models for the annual global mean of component combined aot. At 0.12 to 0.14, simulated aot values are at the lower end of global averages suggested by remote sensing from ground (AERONET ca 0.14) and space (MODIS-MISR composite ca 0.16). More detailed comparisons, however, reveal that larger differences in regional distribution and significant differences in compositional mixture have remained. Of particular concern is the large model diversity for contributions by dust and carbon, because it leads to significant uncertainty in aerosol absorption (aab). Since not only aot but also aab influence the aerosol impact on the radiative energy-balance, aerosol (direct) forcing uncertainty in modeling is larger than differences in aot might suggest. New diagnostic approaches are proposed to trace model differences in terms of aerosol processing and transport: These include the prescription of common input (e.g. amount, size and injection of aerosol component emissions) and the use of observational capabilities from ground (e.g. measurements networks) and space (e.g. correlations between retrieved aerosol and cloud properties).

  18. A Globally Consistent Methodology for an Exposure Model for Natural Catastrophe Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Pandey, Bishwa; Saito, Keiko

    2013-04-01

    There is a high demand for the development of a globally consistent and robust exposure data model employing a top down approach, to be used in national level catastrophic risk profiling for the public sector liability. To this effect, there are currently several initiatives such as UN-ISDR Global Assessment Report (GAR) and Global Exposure Database for Global Earthquake Model (GED4GEM). However, the consistency and granularity differs from region to region, a problem that is overcome in this proposed approach using national datasets for example in Latin America and the Caribbean Region (LCR). The methodology proposed in this paper aim to produce a global open exposure dataset based upon population, country specific building type distribution and other global/economic indicators such as World Bank indices that are suitable for natural catastrophe risk modelling purposes. The output would be a GIS raster grid at approximately 1 km spatial resolution which would highlight urbaness (building typology distribution, occupancy and use) for each cell at sub national level and compatible with other global initiatives and datasets. It would make use of datasets on population, census, demographic, building data and land use/land cover which are largely available in the public domain. The resultant exposure dataset could be used in conjunction with hazard and vulnerability components to create views of risk for multiple hazards that include earthquake, flood and windstorms. The model we hope would also assist in steps towards future initiatives for open, interchangeable and compatible databases for catastrophe risk modelling. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

  19. Global Warming Potential of a Smartphone : Using Life Cycle Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Ercan, Elif Mine

    2013-01-01

    The global development and usage of smartphones are rapidly increasing. Further, the high capacity and functionality of these devices indicate high technological manufacturing processes and complex supply chains. Thus it is of interest to investigate the potential environmental impacts of a smartphone, from a life cycle perspective. This study uses a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology in order to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of a smartphone, in particularly the smartphone...

  20. Assessment of the consistency among global microwave land surface emissivity products

    OpenAIRE

    H. Norouzi; Temimi, M.; Prigent, C.; Turk, J.; Khanbilvardi, R.; Y. Tian; F. A. Furuzawa; Masunaga, H.

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this work is to intercompare four global land surface emissivity products over various land-cover conditions to assess their consistency. The intercompared land emissivity products were generated over a 5-year period (2003–2007) using observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), and WindSat. First, ...

  1. Global assessments of the status of marine exploited ecosystems and their management: what more is needed?

    OpenAIRE

    Bundy, Alida; Coll, Marta; Shannon, Lynne J.; Shin, Yunne-jai

    2012-01-01

    Several recent global assessments of the status of marine exploited ecosystems have concluded that (a) most marine ecosystems are managed poorly, (b) many ecosystems are highly impacted by fishing, and (c) many fisheries are vulnerable to climate change impacts. Based on these studies, one key highlight of this paper is that developing countries, particularly in the tropics, are suffering a triple whammy: they are the least well managed, often highly impacted by fishing and most vulnerable to...

  2. Worst-Case Scenario Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Two Historically and Economically Important Districts in Eastern Sicily (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.; Paparo, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    The portion of the eastern Sicily coastline (southern Italy), ranging from the southern part of the Catania Gulf (to the north) down to the southern-eastern end of the island, represents a very important geographical domain from the industrial, commercial, military, historical and cultural points of view. Here the two major cities of Augusta and Siracusa are found. In particular, the Augusta bay hosts one of the largest petrochemical poles in the Mediterranean, and Siracusa is listed among the UNESCO World Heritage Sites since 2005. This area was hit by at least seven tsunamis in the approximate time interval from 1600 BC to present, the most famous being the 365, 1169, 1693 and 1908 tsunamis. The choice of this area as one of the sites for the testing of innovative methods for tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment and reduction is then fully justified. This is being developed in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3). We assess the tsunami hazard for the Augusta-Siracusa area through the worst-case credible scenario technique, which can be schematically divided into the following steps: 1) Selection of five main source areas, both in the near- and in the far-field (Hyblaean-Malta escarpment, Messina Straits, Ionian subduction zone, Calabria offshore, western Hellenic Trench); 2) Choice of potential and credible tsunamigenic faults in each area: 38 faults were selected, with properly assigned magnitude, geometry and focal mechanism; 3) Computation of the maximum tsunami wave elevations along the eastern Sicily coast on a coarse grid (by means of the in-house code UBO-TSUFD) and extraction of the 9 scenarios that produce the largest effects in the target areas of Augusta and Siracusa; 4) For each of the 9 scenarios we run numerical UBO-TSUFD simulations over a set of five nested grids, with grid cells size decreasing from 3 km in the open Ionian

  3. Flood risk assessment at the global scale - the role of climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Winsemius, Hessel

    2013-04-01

    Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damage. For example, Munich Re estimates the losses in 2011 alone to be in excess of 60 billion. Whilst major advances have been made in assessing these damages at the local to river basin scale, there are still few assessment methods at the continental to global scale. However, the demand from stakeholders for information on natural hazard risks at the global scale has grown explosively in recent years, with global risk playing a prominent role in several major reports (e.g. Global Assessment Reports (GAR) on Disaster Risk Reduction and IPCC SREX report). Moreover, whilst many studies at the local to regional scale have tried to assess the impacts of long term climate change on risk, the relationships with interannual climate variability have been largely neglected. In response, we have developed a novel global risk assessment model, and used it to assess the impacts of interannual climate variability (namely El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) on flood risk. The model calculates flood risk at a resolution of 1km x 1km, which can then be aggregated to the target scale of a stakeholder's needs (e.g. province, country, continent). We carried out this assessment through the following steps: (1) used gridded daily temperature and precipitation from the EU-WATCH project (0.5° x 0.5°) to; (2) simulate daily flood volumes for the period 1958-2000 using PCRGLOB-WB (0.5° x 0.5°); (3) estimated flood volumes per grid-cell for flood return periods (RP) from 1 to 100 years using extreme value statistics (0.5° x 0.5°); (4) simulated inundation extent and depth for different RPs using dynRout (1km x 1km); and (5) combined these inundation maps with socioeconomic data (e.g. population, asset values) to calculate global flood risks. The results show that ENSO has a clear and strong influence on flood risk in many parts of the world, with anomalies in annual expected flood damages in excess of 50

  4. Internalization of the external costs of global environmental damage in an integrated assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study simulates the internalization of the external costs of major global environmental issues using an optimal economic growth model. We merged two existing models: an integrated assessment model (IAM) and a life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) model. We sought to achieve simultaneously the following three objectives: (i) to incorporate environmental issues including global warming in the IAM; (ii) to assess environmental impacts with a bottom-up approach from the LCIA; and (iii) to internalize external costs obtained from the environmental impact study. The study also provides initial simulation results obtained from the merged model. Simulation results indicate that global warming will account for somewhere from 10% to 40% of all external costs in the 21st century. The remaining cost will come from land use and its changes. The internalization of the external cost will cause a decline in economic growth by approximately 5%, whereas forest preservation will increase by 40% and fossil-fuel consumption will be reduced by 15%. The estimated sustainability indicators imply that a necessary condition of sustainable development is satisfied for the entire world and for the developed countries during the 21st century, but is not satisfied until the latter half of this century for the developing counties.

  5. Downscaling land use and land cover from the Global Change Assessment Model for coupling with Earth system models

    OpenAIRE

    Page, Yannick; West, Tris O’Brien; Link, Robert; Patel, Pralit

    2016-01-01

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used to project future societal and environmental scenarios, based on economic modeling and on a detailed representation of food and energy production systems. The terrestrial module in GCAM represents agricultural activities and ecosystems dynamics at the sub-regional scale, and must be downscaled to be used for impact assessments in gridded models (e.g. climate models). In this study, we present the downscalin...

  6. Comparative assessment of fungal augmentation treatments of a fine-textured and historically oil-contaminated soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covino, Stefano; Stella, Tatiana; D'Annibale, Alessandro; Lladó, Salvador; Baldrian, Petr; Čvančarová, Monika; Cajthaml, Tomas; Petruccioli, Maurizio

    2016-10-01

    The removal of aged hydrophobic contaminants from fine-textured soils is a challenging issue in remediation. The objective of this study was to compare the efficacy of augmentation treatments to that of biostimulation in terms of total aliphatic hydrocarbon (TAH) and toxicity removal from a historically contaminated clay soil and to assess their impact on the resident microbial community. To this aim, Pleurotus ostreatus, Botryosphaeria rhodina and a combination of both were used as the inoculants while the addition of a sterilized lignocellulose mixture to soil (1:5, w/w) was used as a biostimulation approach. As opposed to the non-amended control soil, where no changes in TAH concentration and residual toxicity were observed after 60days, the activation of specialized bacteria was found in the biostimulated microcosms resulting in significant TAH removal (79.8%). The bacterial community structure in B. rhodina-augmented microcosms did not differ from the biostimulated microcosms due to the inability of the fungus to be retained within the resident microbiota. Best TAH removals were observed in microcosms inoculated with P. ostreatus alone (Po) and in binary consortium with B. rhodina (BC) (86.8 and 88.2%, respectively). In these microcosms, contaminant degradation exceeded their bioavailability thresholds determined by sequential supercritical CO2 extraction. Illumina metabarcoding of 16S rRNA gene showed that the augmentation with Po and BC led to lower relative abundances of Gram(+) taxa, Actinobacteria in particular, than those in biostimulated microcosms. Best detoxification, with respect to the non-amended incubation control, was found in Po microcosms where a drop in collembola mortality (from 90 to 22%) occurred. At the end of incubation, in both Po and BC, the relative abundances of P. ostreatus sequences were higher than 60% thus showing the suitability of this fungus in bioaugmentation-based remediation applications. PMID:27220102

  7. Architectural/historical assessment of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge Reservation, Anderson and Roane Counties, Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carver, M.; Slater, M.

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is required by the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) of 1966, as amended, to identify any properties under its jurisdiction that are included in or eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places (National Register). In March 1993 Duvall & Associates, Inc., was engaged to survey the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), a DOE facility located on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in Anderson and Roane Counties, Tennessee, and to prepare a determination of National Register eligibility for all ORNL properties. The purpose of this report is to summarize the results of research into the historical context of ORNL and at to identify historic properties at ORNL that are included in present or eligible for inclusion in the National Register. The identification of archaeological properties at ORNL that are included and eligible for inclusion in the National Register Clinton is addressed in a separate report.

  8. A new global dataset with extreme sea levels and its application for assessing flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Extreme sea levels, caused by storm surges and high tides, can have devastating societal impacts. The global coastal population is faced with an increasing trend in flood risk, induced by socio-economic development and climate change. Without action, the increasing trends in flood hazard and exposure will be associated with catastrophic flood losses in the future. The adequate allocation of global investments in adaptation requires an accurate understanding of the current and future coastal flood risk on a global-scale. Here we present the first global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels (GTSR dataset) based on dynamical modelling. GTSR covers the entire world's coastline and consists of time series of tides and surges and estimates of extreme values for various return periods. The dataset is based on two different hydrodynamic models: FES2012 for modelling tides, and GSTM for modelling storm surges. GSTM is forced by meteorological fields from ERA-Interim to simulate storm surges for the period 1979-2014. Validation showed that there is very good agreement between modelled and observed sea levels. Only in regions prone to tropical cyclones, extreme sea levels are severely underestimated due to the limited resolution of the meteorological forcing. This will be resolved for future updates of GTSR. As a first application of GSTR, we estimate that 99 million people are exposed to a 1 in 100 year flood. This is almost 40% lower than estimates based the DIVA dataset, another global dataset of extreme sea level. We foresee other applications in assessing impacts of climate change and risk management, such as assessing changes in storminess, estimating the impacts of sea level, and providing warning levels to operational models.

  9. Health impact assessment of global climate change: expanding on comparative risk assessment approaches for policy making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, Jonathan; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Gibbs, Holly; Woodruff, Rosalie

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is projected to have adverse impacts on public health. Cobenefits may be possible from more upstream mitigation of greenhouse gases causing climate change. To help measure such cobenefits alongside averted disease-specific risks, a health impact assessment (HIA) framework can more comprehensively serve as a decision support tool. HIA also considers health equity, clearly part of the climate change problem. New choices for energy must be made carefully considering such effects as additional pressure on the world's forests through large-scale expansion of soybean and oil palm plantations, leading to forest clearing, biodiversity loss and disease emergence, expulsion of subsistence farmers, and potential increases in food prices and emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Investigators must consider the full range of policy options, supported by more comprehensive, flexible, and transparent assessment methods. PMID:18173382

  10. Porphyry copper assessment of the Tibetan Plateau, China: Chapter F in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludington, Steve; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Robinson, Gilpin R., Jr.; Mars, John L.; Miller, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with the China Geological Survey to conduct a mineral-resource assessment of resources in porphyry copper deposits on the Tibetan Plateau in western China. This area hosts several very large porphyry deposits, exemplified by the Yulong and Qulong deposits, each containing at least 7,000,000 metric tons (t) of copper. However, large parts of the area are underexplored and are likely to contain undiscovered porphyry copper deposits.

  11. Sandstone copper assessment of the Chu-Sarysu Basin, Central Kazakhstan: Chapter E in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Box, Stephen E.; Syusyura, Boris; Hayes, Timothy S.; Taylor, Cliff D.; Zientek, Michael L.; Hitzman, Murray W.; Seltmann, Reimar; Chechetkin, Vladimir; Dolgopolova, Alla; Cossette, Pamela M.; Wallis, John C.

    2012-01-01

    Mineral resource assessments represent a synthesis of available information to estimate the location, quality, and quantity of undiscovered mineral resources in the upper part of the Earth’s crust. This report presents a probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered sandstone copper deposits within the late Paleozoic Chu-Sarysu Basin in central Kazakhstan by the U.S. Geological Survey as a contribution to a global assessment of mineral resources. The purposes of this study are to: (1) provide a database of known sandstone copper deposits and significant prospects in this area, (2) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered sandstone copper deposits within 2 km of the surface at a scale of 1:1,000,000, (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within these permissive tracts at several levels of confidence, and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), silver (Ag), and mineralized rock that could be contained in undiscovered deposits within each tract. The assessment uses the three-part form of mineral resource assessment based on mineral deposit models (Singer, 1993; Singer and Menzie, 2010).

  12. Assessment of undiscovered sandstone copper deposits of the Kodar-Udokan area, Russia: Chapter M in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zientek, Michael L.; Chechetkin, Vladimir S.; Parks, Heather L.; Box, Stephen E.; Briggs, Deborah A.; Cossette, Pamela M.; Dolgopolova, Alla; Hayes, Timothy S.; Seltmann, Reimar; Syusyura, Boris; Taylor, Cliff D.; Wintzer, Niki E.

    2014-01-01

    Mineral resource assessments integrate and synthesize available information as a basis for estimating the location, quality, and quantity of undiscovered mineral resources. This probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered sandstone copper deposits within Paleoproterozoic metasedimentary rocks of the Kodar-Udokan area in Russia is a contribution to a global assessment led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The purposes of this study are to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) to indicate where undiscovered sandstone-hosted copper deposits may occur within 2 km of the surface, (2) provide a database of known sandstone copper deposits and significant prospects, (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within these permissive tracts at several levels of confidence, and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu) and mineralized rock that could be contained in undiscovered deposits within each tract. The workshop for the assessment, held in October 2009, used a three-part form of mineral resource assessment as described by Singer (1993) and Singer and Menzie (2010).

  13. Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallholder livelihoods that these models do not consider. Maintaining and enhancing robust livelihoods upon bioenergy deployment is an equally important sustainability goal that warrants greater attention. The social implications of biofuel production are complex, varied and place-specific, difficult to model, operationalize and quantify. However, a rapidly developing body of social science literature is advancing the understanding of these interactions. In this letter we link human geography research on the interaction between biofuel crops and livelihoods in developing countries to integrated assessments on biofuels. We review case-study research focused on first-generation biofuel crops to demonstrate that food, income, land and other assets such as health are key livelihood dimensions that can be impacted by such crops and we highlight how place-specific and global dynamics influence both aggregate and distributional outcomes across these livelihood dimensions. We argue that place-specific production models and land tenure regimes mediate livelihood outcomes, which are also in turn affected by global and regional markets and their resulting equilibrium dynamics. The place-specific perspective suggests that distributional consequences are a crucial complement to aggregate outcomes; this has not been given enough weight in comprehensive assessments to date. By narrowing the gap between place-specific case studies and global models, our discussion offers a route towards integrating livelihood and equity considerations into scenarios of future bioenergy deployment, thus contributing to a key challenge in sustainability sciences. (letter)

  14. Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creutzig, Felix; Corbera, Esteve; Bolwig, Simon; Hunsberger, Carol

    2013-09-01

    Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallholder livelihoods that these models do not consider. Maintaining and enhancing robust livelihoods upon bioenergy deployment is an equally important sustainability goal that warrants greater attention. The social implications of biofuel production are complex, varied and place-specific, difficult to model, operationalize and quantify. However, a rapidly developing body of social science literature is advancing the understanding of these interactions. In this letter we link human geography research on the interaction between biofuel crops and livelihoods in developing countries to integrated assessments on biofuels. We review case-study research focused on first-generation biofuel crops to demonstrate that food, income, land and other assets such as health are key livelihood dimensions that can be impacted by such crops and we highlight how place-specific and global dynamics influence both aggregate and distributional outcomes across these livelihood dimensions. We argue that place-specific production models and land tenure regimes mediate livelihood outcomes, which are also in turn affected by global and regional markets and their resulting equilibrium dynamics. The place-specific perspective suggests that distributional consequences are a crucial complement to aggregate outcomes; this has not been given enough weight in comprehensive assessments to date. By narrowing the gap between place-specific case studies and global models, our discussion offers a route towards integrating livelihood and equity considerations into scenarios of future bioenergy deployment, thus contributing to a key challenge in sustainability sciences.

  15. The Global Earthquake History

    OpenAIRE

    Albini, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia; Musson, R. M. W.; BGS, Edinburgh; Rovida, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia; Locati, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia; Gomez Capera, A. A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia; Viganò, D.; Global Earthquake Model-GEM

    2014-01-01

    The study of earthquakes from historical sources, or historical seismology, was considered an early priority for the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) project, which commissioned a study of historical seismicity at a global scale. This was “The Global Earthquake History” (GEH) project, led jointly by INGV (Milano, Italy) and BGS (UK). GEH was structured around three complementary deliverables: archive, catalogue, and the web infrastructure designed to store both archive and catalogue. The Global ...

  16. Historical Evolution of Global and Regional Surface Air Temperature Simulated by FGOALS-s2 and FGOALS-g2:How Reliable Are the Model Results?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tianjun; SONG Fengfei; CHEN Xiaolong

    2013-01-01

    In order to assess the performance of two versions of the IAP/LASG Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model,simulated changes in surface air temperature (SAT),from natural and anthropogenic forcings,were compared to observations for the period 1850-2005 at global,hemispheric,continental and regional scales.The global and hemispheric averages of SAT and their land and ocean components during 1850 2005 were well reproduced by FGOALS-g2,as evidenced by significant correlation coefficients and small RMSEs.The significant positive correlations were firstly determined by the warming trends,and secondly by interdecadal fluctuations.The abilities of the models to reproduce interdecadal SAT variations were demonstrated by both wavelet analysis and significant positive correlations for detrended data.The observed land-sea thermal contrast change was poorly simulated.The major weakness of FGOALS-s2 was an exaggerated warming response to anthropogenic forcing,with the simulation showing results that were far removed from observations prior to the 1950s.The observations featured warming trends (1906-2005)of 0.71,0.68 and 0.79℃ (100 yr) 1 for global,Northern and Southern Hemispheric averages,which were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 [1.42,1.52 and 1.13℃ (100 yr)-1] but underestimated by FGOALS-g2 [0.69,0.68 and 0.73℃ (100 yr)-1].The polar amplification of the warming trend was exaggerated in FGOALS-s2 but weakly reproduced in FGOALS-g2.The stronger response of FGOALS-s2 to anthropogenic forcing was caused by strong sea-ice albedo feedback and water vapor feedback.Examination of model results in 15 selected subcontinental-scale regions showed reasonable performance for FGOALS-g2 over most regions.However,the observed warming trends were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 in most regions.Over East Asia,the meridional gradient of the warming trend simulated by FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) was stronger (weaker)than observed.

  17. Evaluating the Contribution of Soil Carbon to Global Climate Change Mitigation in an Integrated Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Clarke, L. E.

    2006-12-01

    Assessing the contribution of terrestrial carbon sequestration to national and international climate change mitigation requires integration across scientific and disciplinary boundaries. In a study for the US Climate Change Technology Program, site based measurements and geographic data were used to develop a three- pool, first-order kinetic model of global agricultural soil carbon (C) stock changes over 14 continental scale regions. This model was then used together with land use scenarios from the MiniCAM integrated assessment model in a global analysis of climate change mitigation options. MiniCAM evaluated mitigation strategies within a set of policy environments aimed at achieving atmospheric CO2 stabilization by 2100 under a suite of technology and development scenarios. Adoption of terrestrial sequestration practices is based on competition for land and economic markets for carbon. In the reference case with no climate policy, conversion of agricultural land from conventional cultivation to no tillage over the next century in the United States results in C sequestration of 7.6 to 59.8 Tg C yr-1, which doubles to 19.0 to 143.4 Tg C yr-1 under the most aggressive climate policy. Globally, with no carbon policy, agricultural C sequestration rates range from 75.2 to 18.2 Tg C yr-1 over the century, with the highest rates occurring in the first fifty years. Under the most aggressive global climate change policy, sequestration in agricultural soils reaches up to 190 Tg C yr-1 in the first 15 years. The contribution of agricultural soil C sequestration is a small fraction of the total global carbon offsets necessary to reach the stabilization targets (9 to 20 Gt C yr-1) by the end of the century. This integrated assessment provides decision makers with science-based estimates of the potential magnitude of terrestrial C sequestration relative to other greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in all sectors of the global economy. It also provides insight into the

  18. Historical environmental pollution trend and ecological risk assessment of trace metals in marine sediments off Adyar estuary, Bay of Bengal, India.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Veerasingam, S.; Venkatachalapathy, R.; Ramkumar, T.

    metropolitan city with a high density population and is drained by the Adyar River in the south, Cooum River in the central part and Ennore Creek on the northern side. In recent years, the discharge of effluents from major indus- tries including fertilizers...) found that they were slightly polluted by Cu and Cd. This study was conducted to establish the historical environmental pollution trend and investigate whether the fast growth in Chennai city had accelerated the trace metal pollution, and also to assess...

  19. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  20. GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hoogeveen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by FAO to assess water use in irrigated agriculture; the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high resolution datasets that are consistent at global level and calibrated against values for Internal Renewable Water Resources, as published in AQUASTAT, FAO's global information system on water and agriculture. Validation of the model is done against mean annual river basin outflows. The water balance is calculated in two steps: first a "vertical" water balance is calculated that includes evaporation from in situ rainfall ("green" water and incremental evaporation from irrigated crops. In a second stage, a "horizontal" water balance is calculated to determine discharges from river (sub-basins, taking into account incremental evaporation from irrigation, open water and wetlands ("blue" water. The paper describes methodology, input and output data, calibration and validation of the model. The model results are finally compared with other global water balance models.

  1. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change. Lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada-the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a 'family of integrators' into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies

  2. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change: lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-04-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada—the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a "family of integrators" into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies.

  3. An AeroCom initial assessment – optical properties in aerosol component modules of global models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kinne

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The AeroCom exercise diagnoses multi-component aerosol modules in global modeling. In an initial assessment simulated global distributions for mass and mid-visible aerosol optical thickness (aot were compared among 20 different modules. Model diversity was also explored in the context of previous comparisons. For the component combined aot general agreement has improved for the annual global mean. At 0.11 to 0.14, simulated aot values are at the lower end of global averages suggested by remote sensing from ground (AERONET ca. 0.135 and space (satellite composite ca. 0.15. More detailed comparisons, however, reveal that larger differences in regional distribution and significant differences in compositional mixture remain. Of particular concern are large model diversities for contributions by dust and carbonaceous aerosol, because they lead to significant uncertainty in aerosol absorption (aab. Since aot and aab, both, influence the aerosol impact on the radiative energy-balance, the aerosol (direct forcing uncertainty in modeling is larger than differences in aot might suggest. New diagnostic approaches are proposed to trace model differences in terms of aerosol processing and transport: These include the prescription of common input (e.g. amount, size and injection of aerosol component emissions and the use of observational capabilities from ground (e.g. measurements networks or space (e.g. correlations between aerosol and clouds.

  4. Systematic global assessment of reef fish communities by the Reef Life Survey program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edgar, Graham J; Stuart-Smith, Rick D

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of patterns in macroecology, including those most relevant to global biodiversity conservation, has been hampered by a lack of quantitative data collected in a consistent manner over the global scale. Global analyses of species' abundance data typically rely on records aggregated from multiple studies where different sampling methods and varying levels of taxonomic and spatial resolution have been applied. Here we describe the Reef Life Survey (RLS) reef fish dataset, which contains 134,759 abundance records, of 2,367 fish taxa, from 1,879 sites in coral and rocky reefs distributed worldwide. Data were systematically collected using standardized methods, offering new opportunities to assess broad-scale spatial patterns in community structure. The development of such a large dataset was made possible through contributions of investigators associated with science and conservation agencies worldwide, and the assistance of a team of over 100 recreational SCUBA divers, who undertook training in scientific techniques for underwater surveys and voluntarily contributed skills, expertise and their time to data collection. PMID:25977765

  5. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  6. An Integrated Modeling Framework for Assessment of Impacts of Multiple Global Changes on Terrestrial Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittig, V.; Yang, X.; Jain, A.

    2008-12-01

    Independent changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition and climate change directly impact terrestrial productivity. Less well understood are the interactive effects of these globally changing factors on terrestrial productivity and the resultant impact on rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This study uses the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) to quantify the impacts of these multiple global changes on terrestrial productivity and further, to project how these changes feedback on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations via respiratory carbon fluxes. The ISAM is modified to include a mechanistic model of leaf photosynthesis including the sensitivity of leaf photosynthesis to tropospheric ozone. Leaf-level photosynthetic carbon gain is scaled to the canopy with a sun-shade microclimate model to estimate the gross primary productivity of major biomes comprised of representative plant functional types. The modified carbon cycle in ISAM is coupled to a detailed model of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle therefore providing the integrated modeling framework required to assess the interactive effects of rising carbon dioxide, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition and climate change on global productivity.

  7. Assessing Compatibility of Direct Detection Data: Halo-Independent Global Likelihood Analyses

    CERN Document Server

    Gelmini, Graciela B; Witte, Samuel J

    2016-01-01

    We present two different halo-independent methods utilizing a global maximum likelihood that can assess the compatibility of dark matter direct detection data given a particular dark matter model. The global likelihood we use is comprised of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Poisson or Gaussian likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function and construct a two sided pointwise confidence band, which can then be compared with those derived from the extended likelihood alone to assess the joint compatibility of the data. In the second method we define a "constrained parameter goodness-of-fit" test statistic, whose $p$-value we then use to define a "plausibility region" (e.g. where $p \\geq 10\\%$). For any halo function not entirely contained within the plausibility region, the level of compatibility of the data is very low (e.g. $p < 10 \\%$). As an example we apply these methods to CDMS-II-Si and SuperCDMS data, assuming dark matter particles with elastic s...

  8. Global guidance on environmental life cycle impact assessment indicators: Progress and case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frischknecht, Rolf; Fantke, Peter; Tschümperlin, Laura;

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) guidance flagship project of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Life Cycle Initiative aims at providing global guidance and building scientific consensus on environmental LCIA...... warming, fine particulate matter emissions, water use and land use, plus cross-cutting issues and LCAbased footprints. The paper reports the process and progress and specific results obtained in the different task forces (TFs). Additionally, a rice LCA case study common to all TF has been developed. Three...... practicality of the finally recommended impact category indicators. Results and discussion The global warming TF concludes that analysts should explore the sensitivity of LCA results to metrics other than GWP. The particulate matter TF attained initial guidance of how to include health effects from PM2...

  9. A City and National Metric measuring Isolation from the Global Market for Food Security Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Silver, Kirk Coleman; Rajagopalan, Krishnan

    2013-01-01

    The World Bank has invested in infrastructure in developing countries for decades. This investment aims to reduce the isolation of markets, reducing both seasonality and variability in food availability and food prices. Here we combine city market price data, global distance to port, and country infrastructure data to create a new Isolation Index for countries and cities around the world. Our index quantifies the isolation of a city from the global market. We demonstrate that an index built at the country level can be applied at a sub-national level to quantify city isolation. In doing so, we offer policy makers with an alternative metric to assess food insecurity. We compare our isolation index with other indices and economic data found in the literature.We show that our Index measures economic isolation regardless of economic stability using correlation and analysis

  10. A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 2: Water availability and scarcity

    OpenAIRE

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.; Yamamoto, T.; Yoshikawa, S.; Masaki, Y; Hijioka, Y.; M. Kainuma; Kanamori, Y; T. Masui; Takahashi, K; Kanae, S.

    2013-01-01

    A global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century was conducted under the latest socio-economic scenario for global change studies, namely Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). SSPs depict five global situations with substantially different socio-economic conditions. In the accompanying paper, a water use scenario compatible with the SSPs was developed. This scenario considers not only quantitative socio-economic factors such as population and electricity production but also qualitativ...

  11. GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture (discussion paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Hoogeveen, J.; J. M. Faures; L. Peiser; Burke, J.; N. C. van de Giesen

    2015-01-01

    GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by FAO to assess water use in irrigated agriculture; the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high resolution datasets that are consistent at global level and calibrated against values for Internal Renewable Water Resources, as published in AQUASTAT, FAO’s global information system on water and agriculture. Validation of the model i...

  12. A global assessment of forest surface albedo and its relationships with climate and atmospheric nitrogen deposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Stefano; Magnani, Federico; Nolè, Angelo; Van Noije, Twan; Borghetti, Marco

    2015-01-01

    We present a global assessment of the relationships between the short-wave surface albedo of forests, derived from the MODIS satellite instrument product at 0.5° spatial resolution, with simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition rates (Ndep ), and climatic variables (mean annual temperature Tm and total annual precipitation P), compiled at the same spatial resolution. The analysis was performed on the following five forest plant functional types (PFTs): evergreen needle-leaf forests (ENF); evergreen broad-leaf forests (EBF); deciduous needle-leaf forests (DNF); deciduous broad-leaf forests (DBF); and mixed-forests (MF). Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied in the exploratory analysis to assess the functional nature of short-wave surface albedo relations to environmental variables. The analysis showed evident correlations of albedo with environmental predictors when data were pooled across PFTs: Tm and Ndep displayed a positive relationship with forest albedo, while a negative relationship was detected with P. These correlations are primarily due to surface albedo differences between conifer and broad-leaf species, and different species geographical distributions. However, the analysis performed within individual PFTs, strengthened by attempts to select 'pure' pixels in terms of species composition, showed significant correlations with annual precipitation and nitrogen deposition, pointing toward the potential effect of environmental variables on forest surface albedo at the ecosystem level. Overall, our global assessment emphasizes the importance of elucidating the ecological mechanisms that link environmental conditions and forest canopy properties for an improved parameterization of surface albedo in climate models. PMID:25044609

  13. Health-related rehabilitation services: assessing the global supply of and need for human resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Landry Michel D

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Human resources for rehabilitation are often a neglected component of health services strengthening and health workforce development. This may be partly related to weaknesses in the available research and evidence to inform advocacy and programmatic strategies. The objective of this study was to quantitatively describe the global situation in terms of supply of and need for human resources for health-related rehabilitation services, as a basis for strategy development of the workforce in physical and rehabilitation medicine. Methods Data for assessing supply of and need for rehabilitative personnel were extracted and analyzed from statistical databases maintained by the World Health Organization and other national and international health information sources. Standardized classifications were used to enhance cross-national comparability of findings. Results Large differences were found across countries and regions between assessed need for services requiring health workers associated to physical and rehabilitation medicine against estimated supply of health personnel skilled in rehabilitation services. Despite greater need, low- and middle-income countries tended to report less availability of skilled health personnel, although the strength of the supply-need relationship varied across geographical and economic country groupings. Conclusion The evidence base on human resources for health-related rehabilitation services remains fragmented, the result of limited availability and use of quality, comparable data and information within and across countries. This assessment offered the first global baseline, intended to catalyze further research that can be translated into evidence to support human resources for rehabilitation policy and practice.

  14. Historical Argumentation and Writing Historical Historical Argumentation and Writing Historical

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamza KELEŞ

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Writing a historical essay in argumentative genre is an important activity in learning and understanding the history. Argumentation is the symbol of good writing. In historical argumentation, what is expected from students is not to put the events into a chronologicalorder but to put a claim and then give a detailed discussion of the their claim based on evidence. In the present study, based on Toulmin’s argumentation model, general argumentation and historical argumentation are dealt with and features and importance of writing historical argumentation in history courses are emphasized. Moreover, sample activities that can be used to encourage students to write historical argumentation texts and evaluation criteria for a historical text in argumentative genre are presented.

  15. Applications of Non-destructive methods (GPR and 3D Laser Scanner) in Historic Masonry Arch Bridge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alani, Amir; Banks, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    There exist approximately 70,000 masonry arch bridge spans (brick and stone) in the UK with tens of thousands more throughout Europe. A significant number of these bridges are still in operation and form part of the road and rail network systems in many countries. A great majority of these bridges are in desperate need of repair and maintenance. Applications of non-destructive testing methods such as ground penetrating radar (GPR), 3D laser scanning, accelerometer sensors and vibration detecting sensors amongst many others have been used to assess and monitor such structures in the past few years. This presentation provides results of the applications of a 2GHz GPR antenna system and a 3D laser scanner on a historic masonry arch bridge (the Old Bridge, Aylesford) located in Kent, in the south east of England. The older part of the bridge (the mid-span) is 860 years old. The bridge was the subject of a major alteration in 1811. This presentation forms part of a larger ongoing study which is using the two above mentioned non-destructive methods for long-term monitoring of the bridge. The adopted survey planning strategy and technique, data acquisition and processing as well as challenges encountered during actual survey and fieldworks have been discussed in this presentation. As a result of this study the position of different layers of the deck structure has been established with the identification of the original stone base of the bridge. This information in addition to the location of a number of structural ties (anchors - remedial work carried out previously) in the absence of reliable and accurate design details proved to be extremely useful for the modelling of the bridge using the finite element method. Results of the 3D laser scanning of the bridge have also been presented which have provided invaluable data essential for the accurate modelling of the bridge as well as the long term monitoring of the bridge. 2014 EGU-GA GI3.1 Session, organised by COST Action

  16. Historical Argumentation and Writing Historical Historical Argumentation and Writing Historical

    OpenAIRE

    KELEŞ, Hamza; KİRİŞ, Ayten

    2010-01-01

    Writing a historical essay in argumentative genre is an important activity in learning and understanding the history. Argumentation is the symbol of good writing. In historical argumentation, what is expected from students is not to put the events into a chronologicalorder but to put a claim and then give a detailed discussion of the their claim based on evidence. In the present study, based on Toulmin’s argumentation model, general argumentation and historical argumentation are dealt with an...

  17. Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter S Rand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

  18. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF WASTEWATER IRRIGATION: UNDERSTANDING HEALTH RISKS AND CONTRIBUTIONS TO FOOD SECURITY USING AN ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS APPROACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    This research will quantify the extent of de facto reuse of untreated wastewater at the global scale. Through the integration of multiple existing spatial data sources, this project will produce rigorous analyses assessing the relationship between wastewater irrigation, hea...

  19. A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  20. An integration of historical records and genetic data to the assessment of global distribution and population structure in Octopus vulgaris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DanieleDe Luca

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The common octopus (Octopus vulgaris Cuvier, 1797 is one of the most widely distributed species belonging to the genus Octopus as well as an important commercially harvested species and a model organism for behavioral biology of invertebrates. It has been described for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea but it is considered a cosmopolitan species inhabiting the temperate and tropical sea of the northern and southern hemispheres. In the last few years, several species previously considered as O. vulgaris have been recognized as new species, limiting the distributional range of “vulgaris” and reinforcing the thesis of a species complex. Where it is an important fishery resource, numerous studies have been conducted in order to define its genetic structure with the purpose of managing different stocks. However, many locations are still poorly investigated from this point of view and others are under taxonomic revision to exclude or confirm its occurrence. Here we provide a summary of the current status of knowledge on distribution and genetic structure in this species in the different oceanic regions.

  1. Global climate change: An introduction and results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

    OpenAIRE

    Seth, Anji

    2007-01-01

    This presentation gives summary of the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WG1) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): The physical science basis for climate change. It begins with a history of the theory of global climate change, followed by the important concepts surrounding global climate change: the greenhouse effect and carbon cycle and how the climate has changed throughout the earth's history. It then discusses the IPCC's assessment reports, focusi...

  2. Glass vs. Plastic: Life Cycle Assessment of Extra-Virgin Olive Oil Bottles across Global Supply Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Riccardo Accorsi; Lorenzo Versari; Riccardo Manzini

    2015-01-01

    The environmental impacts of global food supply chains are growing with the need for their measurement and management. This paper explores the operations of a global supply chain for extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO) according to a life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The LCA assessment methodology is applied to determine the environmental impact categories associated with the bottled EVOO life cycle, focusing on packaging decisions. The proposed analysis identifies the greatest environmental...

  3. Historical sea level data rescue to assess long-term sea level evolution: Saint-Nazaire observatory (Loire estuary, France) since 1863.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferret, Yann; Voineson, Guillaume; Pouvreau, Nicolas

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays, the study of the global sea level rise is a strong societal concern. The analysis of historical records of water level proves to be an ideal way to provide relevant arguments regarding the observed trends. In France, many systematic sea level observations have taken place since the mid-1800s. Despite this rich history, long sea level data sets digitally available are still scarce. Currently, only the time series of Brest, Marseille and recently the composite one of the Pertuis d'Antioche span periods longer than a century and are available to be taken into account in studies dealing with long term sea-level evolution. In this context, an important work of "data archaeology" is undertaken to rescue the numerous existing analog historical data that is part of the French scientific and cultural heritage. The present study is focused on the measurements carried out at the sea level observatory of Saint-Nazaire, located on the French Atlantic coast in the Loire estuary mouth area. Measurements were automatically performed with the use of float tide gauges from 1863 to 2007, but include some important gaps between 1920 and 1950. Since 2007, the Saint-Nazaire observatory is part of the French RONIM network operated by SHOM, and the old mechanical tide gauge has been superseded by a radar tide gauge (operated by "Grand Port Maritime" of Nantes-Saint-Nazaire). In total, the covered period is up to 150-year-long, including at least 125 years of continuous sea level measurements. With the reconstruction of this new data set, we aim at improving our knowledge on trends in sea level components on the Atlantic coast on large scale and on the coast vulnerability at more local scale. Moreover, because of the location of the station, it should be possible as well to study the influence of the Loire River on water level since the 19th century. It has been shown that the tidal range was strongly modified during the last century because of the anthropogenic influence along

  4. Bibliometric analysis of global environmental assessment research in a 20-year period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on the samples of 113,468 publications on environmental assessment (EA) from the past 20 years, we used a bibliometric analysis to study the literature in terms of trends of growth, subject categories and journals, international collaboration, geographic distribution of publications, and scientific research issues. By applying thresholds to network centralities, a core group of countries can be distinguished as part of the international collaboration network. A frequently used keywords analysis found that the priority in assessment would gradually change from project environmental impact assessment (EIA) to strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Decision-theoretic approaches (i.e., environmental indicator selection, life cycle assessment, etc.), along with new technologies and methods (i.e., the geographic information system and modeling) have been widely applied in the EA research field over the past 20 years. Hot spots such as “biodiversity” and “climate change” have been emphasized in current EA research, a trend that will likely continue in the future. The h-index has been used to evaluate the research quality among countries all over the world, while the improvement of developing countries' EA systems is becoming a popular research topic. Our study reveals patterns in scientific outputs and academic collaborations and serves as an alternative and innovative way of revealing global research trends in the EA research field

  5. Bibliometric analysis of global environmental assessment research in a 20-year period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Wei, E-mail: weili@bnu.edu.cn; Zhao, Yang

    2015-01-15

    Based on the samples of 113,468 publications on environmental assessment (EA) from the past 20 years, we used a bibliometric analysis to study the literature in terms of trends of growth, subject categories and journals, international collaboration, geographic distribution of publications, and scientific research issues. By applying thresholds to network centralities, a core group of countries can be distinguished as part of the international collaboration network. A frequently used keywords analysis found that the priority in assessment would gradually change from project environmental impact assessment (EIA) to strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Decision-theoretic approaches (i.e., environmental indicator selection, life cycle assessment, etc.), along with new technologies and methods (i.e., the geographic information system and modeling) have been widely applied in the EA research field over the past 20 years. Hot spots such as “biodiversity” and “climate change” have been emphasized in current EA research, a trend that will likely continue in the future. The h-index has been used to evaluate the research quality among countries all over the world, while the improvement of developing countries' EA systems is becoming a popular research topic. Our study reveals patterns in scientific outputs and academic collaborations and serves as an alternative and innovative way of revealing global research trends in the EA research field.

  6. Assessing current genetic status of the Hainan gibbon using historical and demographic baselines: implications for conservation management of species of extreme rarity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryant, J V; Gottelli, D; Zeng, X; Hong, X; Chan, B P L; Fellowes, J R; Zhang, Y; Luo, J; Durrant, C; Geissmann, T; Chatterjee, H J; Turvey, S T

    2016-08-01

    Evidence-based conservation planning is crucial for informing management decisions for species of extreme rarity, but collection of robust data on genetic status or other parameters can be extremely challenging for such species. The Hainan gibbon, possibly the world's rarest mammal, consists of a single population of ~25 individuals restricted to one protected area on Hainan Island, China, and has persisted for over 30 years at exceptionally low population size. Analysis of genotypes at 11 microsatellite loci from faecal samples for 36% of the current global population and tissue samples from 62% of existing historical museum specimens demonstrates limited current genetic diversity (Na = 2.27, Ar = 2.24, He  = 0.43); diversity has declined since the 19th century and even further within the last 30 years, representing declines of ~30% from historical levels (Na = 3.36, Ar = 3.29, He  = 0.63). Significant differentiation is seen between current and historical samples (FST  = 0.156, P = 0.0315), and the current population exhibits extremely small Ne (current Ne  = 2.16). There is evidence for both a recent population bottleneck and an earlier bottleneck, with population size already reasonably low by the late 19th century (historical Ne  = 1162.96). Individuals in the current population are related at the level of half- to full-siblings between social groups, and full-siblings or parent-offspring within a social group, suggesting that inbreeding is likely to increase in the future. The species' current reduced genetic diversity must be considered during conservation planning, particularly for expectations of likely population recovery, indicating that intensive, carefully planned management is essential. PMID:27273107

  7. Economic filters for evaluating porphyry copper deposit resource assessments using grade-tonnage deposit models, with examples from the U.S. Geological Survey global mineral resource assessment: Chapter H in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Gilpin R., Jr.; Menzie, W. David

    2012-01-01

    An analysis of the amount and location of undiscovered mineral resources that are likely to be economically recoverable is important for assessing the long-term adequacy and availability of mineral supplies. This requires an economic evaluation of estimates of undiscovered resources generated by traditional resource assessments (Singer and Menzie, 2010). In this study, simplified engineering cost models were used to estimate the economic fraction of resources contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits, predicted in a global assessment of copper resources. The cost models of Camm (1991) were updated with a cost index to reflect increases in mining and milling costs since 1989. The updated cost models were used to perform an economic analysis of undiscovered resources estimated in porphyry copper deposits in six tracts located in North America. The assessment estimated undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within 1 kilometer of the land surface in three depth intervals.

  8. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  9. Exploring Global Exposure Factors Resources for Use in Consumer Exposure Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaleski, Rosemary T.; Egeghy, Peter P.; Hakkinen, Pertti J.

    2016-01-01

    This publication serves as a global comprehensive resource for readers seeking exposure factor data and information relevant to consumer exposure assessment. It describes the types of information that may be found in various official surveys and online and published resources. The relevant exposure factors cover a broad range, including general exposure factor data found in published compendia and databases and resources about specific exposure factors, such as human activity patterns and housing information. Also included are resources on exposure factors related to specific types of consumer products and the associated patterns of use, such as for a type of personal care product or a type of children’s toy. Further, a section on using exposure factors for designing representative exposure scenarios is included, along with a look into the future for databases and other exposure science developments relevant for consumer exposure assessment. PMID:27455300

  10. An assessment of TanDEM-X GlobalDEM over rural and urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Huber, Martin; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew; Lucas, Richard

    2014-10-01

    Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a key input for the development of risk management systems. Main limitation of the current available DEM is the low level of resolution. DEMs such as STRM 90m or ASTER are globally available free of charge, but offer limited use, for example, to flood modelers in most geographic areas. TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement), the first bistatic SAR can fulfil this gap. The mission objective is the generation of a consistent global digital elevation model with an unprecedented accuracy according to the HRTI-3 (High Resolution Terrain Information) specifications. The mission opens a new era in risk assessment. In the framework of ALTAMIRA INFORMATION research activities, the DIAPASON (Differential Interferometric Automated Process Applied to Survey Of Nature) processing chain has been successfully adapted to TanDEM-X CoSSC (Coregistered Slant Range Single Look Complex) data processing. In this study the capability of CoSSC data for DEM generation is investigated. Within the on-going FP7 RASOR project (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk), the generated DEM are compared with Intermediate DEM derived from the TanDEM-X first global coverage. The results are presented and discussed.

  11. The first three years of the Journal of Global Health: Assessing the impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Rudan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Journal of Global Health (JoGH is three years old. To assess its impact, we analysed online access to JoGH’s articles using PubMed Central and Google Analytics tools. Moreover, we tracked citations that JoGH received in 2013 using ISI Web of KnowledgeSM and Google Scholar® tools. The 66 items (articles, viewpoints and editorials published between June 2011 and December 2013 were accessed more than 50 000 times during 2013, from more than 160 countries of the world. Seven among the 13 most accessed papers were focused on global, regional and national epidemiological estimates of important infectious diseases. JoGH articles published in 2011 and 2012 received 77 citations in Journal Citation Reports® (JCR–indexed journals in 2013 to 24 original research articles, setting our first, unofficial impact factor at 3.208. In addition, JoGH received 11 citations during 2013 to its 12 original research papers published during 2013, resulting in an immediacy index of 0.917. The number of external, non–commissioned submissions that we consider to be of high quality is continuously increasing, leading to current JoGH’s rejection rate of about 80%. The current citation analysis raises favourable expectations for the JoGH’s overall impact on the global health community in future years.

  12. Assessment of impact of strong earthquakes to the global economy by example of Thoku event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Sergey, Baranov; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova

    2016-04-01

    We examine the economic consequences of strong earthquakes by example of M9 Tahoku one that occurred on March 11, 2011 close to the northeast shore of Japanese coast Honshu. This earthquake became the strongest in the whole history of the seismological observations in this part of the planet. The generated tsunami killed more than 15,700 people, damaged 332,395 buildings and 2,126 roads. The total economic loss in Japan was estimated at 309 billion. The catastrophe in Japan also impacted global economy. To estimate its impact, we used regional and global stock indexes, production indexes, stock prices of the main Japanese, European and US companies, import and export dynamics, as well as the data provided by the custom of Japan. We also demonstrated that the catastrophe substantially affected the markets and on the short run in some indicators it even exceeded the effect of the global financial crisis of 2008. The last strong earthquake occurred in Nepal (25.04.2015, M7.8) and Chile (16.09.2015, M8.3), both actualized the research of cost assessments of the overall economic impact of seismic hazard. We concluded that it is necessary to treat strong earthquakes as one very important factor that affects the world economy depending on their location. The research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-06-00056A).

  13. Comparative Accuracy Assessment of Global Land Cover Datasets Using Existing Reference Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsendbazar, N. E.; de Bruin, S.; Mora, B.; Herold, M.

    2014-12-01

    Land cover is a key variable to monitor the impact of human and natural processes on the biosphere. As one of the Essential Climate Variables, land cover observations are used for climate models and several other applications. Remote sensing technologies have enabled the generation of several global land cover (GLC) products that are based on different data sources and methods (e.g. legends). Moreover, the reported map accuracies result from varying validation strategies. Such differences make the comparison of the GLC products challenging and create confusion on selecting suitable datasets for different applications. This study aims to conduct comparative accuracy assessment of GLC datasets (LC-CCI 2005, MODIS 2005, and Globcover 2005) using the Globcover 2005 reference data which can represent the thematic differences of these GLC maps. This GLC reference dataset provides LCCS classifier information for 3 main land cover types for each sample plot. The LCCS classifier information was translated according to the legends of the GLC maps analysed. The preliminary analysis showed some challenges in LCCS classifier translation arising from missing important classifier information, differences in class definition between the legends and absence of class proportion of main land cover types. To overcome these issues, we consolidated the entire reference data (i.e. 3857 samples distributed at global scale). Then the GLC maps and the reference dataset were harmonized into 13 general classes to perform the comparative accuracy assessments. To help users on selecting suitable GLC dataset(s) for their application, we conducted the map accuracy assessments considering different users' perspectives: climate modelling, bio-diversity assessments, agriculture monitoring, and map producers. This communication will present the method and the results of this study and provide a set of recommendations to the GLC map producers and users with the aim to facilitate the use of GLC maps.

  14. Assessment of Historic Trend in Mobility and Energy Use in India Transportation Sector Using Bottom-up Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Nan; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-05-01

    Transportation mobility in India has increased significantly in the past decades. From 1970 to 2000, motorized mobility (passenger-km) has risen by 888%, compared with an 88% population growth (Singh,2006). This contributed to many energy and environmental issues, and an energy strategy incorporates efficiency improvement and other measures needs to be designed. Unfortunately, existing energy data do not provide information on driving forces behind energy use and sometime show large inconsistencies. Many previous studies address only a single transportation mode such as passenger road travel; did not include comprehensive data collection or analysis has yet been done, or lack detail on energy demand by each mode and fuel mix. The current study will fill a considerable gap in current efforts, develop a data base on all transport modes including passenger air and water, and freight in order to facilitate the development of energy scenarios and assess significance of technology potential in a global climate change model. An extensive literature review and data collection has been done to establish the database with breakdown of mobility, intensity, distance, and fuel mix of all transportation modes. Energy consumption was estimated and compared with aggregated transport consumption reported in IEA India transportation energy data. Different scenarios were estimated based on different assumptions on freight road mobility. Based on the bottom-up analysis, we estimated that the energy consumption from 1990 to 2000 increased at an annual growth rate of 7% for the mid-range road freight growth case and 12% for the high road freight growth case corresponding to the scenarios in mobility, while the IEA data only shows a 1.7% growth rate in those years.

  15. Historical Fictions

    OpenAIRE

    Eve, Martin Paul

    2015-01-01

    The historical novel is a major presence in the contemporary literary landscape. Why should this genre possess such appeal? And how can we best define it? Joe Brooker (Birkbeck) and Martin Eve (Lincoln) will explore the fascination of historical fiction today with Caroline Magennis (Salford)

  16. Assessment of Global Cloud Datasets from Satellites: Project and Database Initiated by the GEWEX Radiation Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubenrauch, C. J.; Rossow, W. B.; Kinne, S.; Ackerman, S.; Cesana, G.; Chepfer, H.; Getzewich, B.; Di Girolamo, L.; Guignard, A.; Heidinger, A.; Maddux, B.; Menzel, P.; Minnis, P.; Pearl, C.; Platnick, S.; Riedi, J.; Sun-Mack, S.; Walther, A.; Winker, D.; Zeng, S.; Zhao, G.

    2012-01-01

    Clouds cover about 70% of the Earth's surface and play a dominant role in the energy and water cycle of our planet. Only satellite observations provide a continuous survey of the state of the atmosphere over the whole globe and across the wide range of spatial and temporal scales that comprise weather and climate variability. Satellite cloud data records now exceed more than 25 years in length. However, climatologies compiled from different satellite datasets can exhibit systematic biases. Questions therefore arise as to the accuracy and limitations of the various sensors. The Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud Assessment, initiated in 2005 by the GEWEX Radiation Panel, provided the first coordinated intercomparison of publically available, standard global cloud products (gridded, monthly statistics) retrieved from measurements of multi-spectral imagers (some with multiangle view and polarization capabilities), IR sounders and lidar. Cloud properties under study include cloud amount, cloud height (in terms of pressure, temperature or altitude), cloud radiative properties (optical depth or emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase and bulk microphysical properties (effective particle size and water path). Differences in average cloud properties, especially in the amount of high-level clouds, are mostly explained by the inherent instrument measurement capability for detecting and/or identifying optically thin cirrus, especially when overlying low-level clouds. The study of long-term variations with these datasets requires consideration of many factors. A monthly, gridded database, in common format, facilitates further assessments, climate studies and the evaluation of climate models.

  17. Diagnostic outcome following routine genetics clinic referral for the assessment of global developmental delay.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Shahdadpuri, R

    2012-02-01

    The aim of this study was to ascertain the diagnostic yield following a routine genetics clinic referral for the assessment of global developmental delay. Detailed retrospective review of 119 complete consecutive case notes of patients referred to one single clinical geneticist over a 14 month time period was undertaken (n = 119; 54 males, 65 females). The age at initial review ranged from 2 months to 37 years 3 months (mean 8 y 3 mo [SD 7 y 10 mo]). We made a diagnosis in 36\\/119 (30%); 21\\/36 were new diagnoses and 15\\/36 were confirmations of diagnoses. We removed a wrong diagnostic label in 8\\/119 (7%). In 3\\/8 we were able to achieve a diagnosis but in 5\\/8 no alternative diagnosis was reached. We had a better diagnostic rate where the patients were dysmorphic (odds ratio [OR] 1.825; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.065 to 3.128, p = 0.044). In the majority, the diagnosis was made by clinical examination only. Molecular diagnosis was reached in seven cases. Five cases were confirmed by cytogenetic analysis. Brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealed a diagnosis in three cases. This study confirms the importance of a clinical genetics assessment in the investigation of global developmental delay.

  18. Global Geometric Properties of Martian Impact Craters: A Preliminary Assessment Using Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garvin, J. B.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Schnetzler, C.; Frawley, J. J.

    1999-01-01

    Impact craters on Mars have been used to provide fundamental insights into the properties of the martian crust, the role of volatiles, the relative age of the surface, and on the physics of impact cratering in the Solar System. Before the three-dimensional information provided by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) instrument which is currently operating in Mars orbit aboard the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), impact features were characterized morphologically using orbital images from Mariner 9 and Viking. Fresh-appearing craters were identified and measurements of their geometric properties were derived from various image-based methods. MOLA measurements can now provide a global sample of topographic cross-sections of martian impact features as small as approx. 2 km in diameter, to basin-scale features. We have previously examined MOLA cross-sections of Northern Hemisphere and North Polar Region impact features, but were unable to consider the global characteristics of these ubiquitous landforms. Here we present our preliminary assessment of the geometric properties of a globally-distributed sample of martian impact craters, most of which were sampled during the initial stages of the MGS mapping mission (i.e., the first 600 orbits). Our aim is to develop a framework for reconsidering theories concerning impact cratering in the martian environment. This first global analysis is focused upon topographically-fresh impact craters, defined here on the basis of MOLA topographic profiles that cross the central cavities of craters that can be observed in Viking-based MDIM global image mosaics. We have considered crater depths, rim heights, ejecta topologies, cross-sectional "shapes", and simple physical models for ejecta emplacement. To date (May, 1999), we have measured the geometric properties of over 1300 impact craters in the 2 to 350 km diameter size interval. A large fraction of these measured craters were sampled with cavity-center cross-sections during the first

  19. Assessing the value of the ATL13 inland water level product for the Global Flood Partnership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, G.; Pappenberger, F.; Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Jasinski, M. F.

    2015-12-01

    This paper reports on the activities and first results of an our ICESat-2 Early Adopter (EA) project for inland water observations. Our team will assess the value of the ICESat-2 water level product using two flood model use cases, one over the California Bay Delta and one over the Niger Inland Delta. Application of the ALT13 product into routine operations will be ensured via an ALT13 database integrated into the pillar "Global Flood Service and Toolbox" (GFST) of the Global Flood Partnership (GFP). GFP is a cooperation framework between scientific organizations and flood disaster managers worldwide to develop flood observational and modelling infrastructure, leveraging on existing initiatives for better predicting and managing flood disaster impacts and flood risk globally. GFP is hosted as an Expert Working Group by the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS). The objective of this EA project is to make the ICESat-2 water level data available to the international GFP community. The EA team believes that the ALT13 product, after successful demonstration of its value in model calibration/validation and monitoring of large floodplain inundation dynamics, should be made easily accessible to the GFP. The GFST will host data outputs and tools from different flood models and for different applications and regions. All these models can benefit from ALT13 if made available to GFP through GFST. Here, we will introduce both test cases and their model setups and report on first preliminary "capabilities" test runs with the Niger model and ICESat-1 as well as radar altimeter data. Based on our results, we will also reflect on expected capabilities and potential of the ICESat-2 mission for river observations.

  20. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher W Woodall

    Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational

  1. Global Ecological Human Imprint, Sustainable Development and Environment: Assessment and Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safwat H. Shakir Hanna

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecological Human Imprint (EHI, sustainability, and environment form three points of thetriangle of technology development. These three points when integrated are the key tounderstanding how to improve global sustainability. The present research focuses onassessment and impacts of global issues of sustainability of human activities. This researchuses modeling of these points and predicts the impacts of human activities on our globalEarth and its natural resources and in consequence, the economic and social impacts.Further, the model uses assessments to develop suggestions about how to conserve ourglobal environment and natural resources for future generations. The model is constructedon data collected and analyzed using published data from USA Agencies: United NationAgencies and other public published data from different countries in the world. Stella™software is used in the development of the model to make the prediction for the next 100years.The results of research applying the model are presented in three scenarios. Thesescenarios are formed applying (1 relaxed, (2 moderate, and (3 very conservativeassumptions. In addition to these scenarios, predictions are developed according to thereal-time data availability. According to the model, it is very important to maintain thetrend of more efficient use of natural resources. Additionally, the more widespreadeducation is very important to combat high demands for on natural resources and toconserve existing resources for continuation of global ecosystems and to supply life onEarth with the goods and services needed. Further, it is important to maintain the globalthe regenerative biological capacities (i.e. renewable resources of Earth, while conserving(and developing new sources of non-renewable resources. Finally, the model shows thatthe nations should close the gaps between population growth and the economicdevelopment.Key Words: Ecology, natural resources, world population, sustainable

  2. Assessment of Global Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) using new satellite SST data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascione Kenov, Isabella; Sykes, Peter; Fiedler, Emma; McConnell, Niall; Ryan, Andrew; Maksymczuk, Jan

    2016-04-01

    There is an increased demand for accurate ocean weather information for applications in the field of marine safety and navigation, water quality, offshore commercial operations, monitoring of oil spills and pollutants, among others. The Met Office, UK, provides ocean forecasts to customers from governmental, commercial and ecological sectors using the Global Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM), an operational modelling system which covers the global ocean and runs daily, using the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean model with horizontal resolution of 1/4° and 75 vertical levels. The system assimilates salinity and temperature profiles, sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), and sea ice concentration observations on a daily basis. In this study, the FOAM system is updated to assimilate Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) SST data. Model results from one month trials are assessed against observations using verification tools which provide a quantitative description of model performance and error, based on statistical metrics, including mean error, root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient, and Taylor diagrams. A series of hindcast experiments is used to run the FOAM system with AMSR2 and SEVIRI SST data, using a control run for comparison. Results show that all trials perform well on the global ocean and that largest SST mean errors were found in the Southern hemisphere. The geographic distribution of the model error for SST and temperature profiles are discussed using statistical metrics evaluated over sub-regions of the global ocean.

  3. Towards a New Assessment of Urban Areas from Local to Global Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaduri, B. L.; Roy Chowdhury, P. K.; McKee, J.; Weaver, J.; Bright, E.; Weber, E.

    2015-12-01

    Since early 2000s, starting with NASA MODIS, satellite based remote sensing has facilitated collection of imagery with medium spatial resolution but high temporal resolution (daily). This trend continues with an increasing number of sensors and data products. Increasing spatial and temporal resolutions of remotely sensed data archives, from both public and commercial sources, have significantly enhanced the quality of mapping and change data products. However, even with automation of such analysis on evolving computing platforms, rates of data processing have been suboptimal largely because of the ever-increasing pixel to processor ratio coupled with limitations of the computing architectures. Novel approaches utilizing spatiotemporal data mining techniques and computational architectures have emerged that demonstrates the potential for sustained and geographically scalable landscape monitoring to be operational. We exemplify this challenge with two broad research initiatives on High Performance Geocomputation at Oak Ridge National Laboratory: (a) mapping global settlement distribution; (b) developing national critical infrastructure databases. Our present effort, on large GPU based architectures, to exploit high resolution (1m or less) satellite and airborne imagery for extracting settlements at global scale is yielding understanding of human settlement patterns and urban areas at unprecedented resolution. Comparison of such urban land cover database, with existing national and global land cover products, at various geographic scales in selected parts of the world is revealing intriguing patterns and insights for urban assessment. Early results, from the USA, Taiwan, and Egypt, indicate closer agreements (5-10%) in urban area assessments among databases at larger, aggregated geographic extents. However, spatial variability at local scales could be significantly different (over 50% disagreement).

  4. Using beryllium-7 to assess cross-tropopause transport in global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongyu; Considine, David B.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Crawford, James H.; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Strahan, Susan E.; Damon, Megan R.; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Xu, Xiaojing; Kouatchou, Jules; Carouge, Claire; Yantosca, Robert M.

    2016-04-01

    We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) modeling framework to assess the utility of cosmogenic beryllium-7 (7Be), a natural aerosol tracer, for evaluating cross-tropopause transport in global models. The GMI chemical transport model (CTM) was used to simulate atmospheric 7Be distributions using four different meteorological data sets (GEOS1-STRAT DAS, GISS II' GCM, fvGCM, and GEOS4-DAS), featuring significantly different stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) characteristics. The simulations were compared with the upper troposphere and/or lower stratosphere (UT/LS) 7Be climatology constructed from ˜ 25 years of aircraft and balloon data, as well as climatological records of surface concentrations and deposition fluxes. Comparison of the fraction of surface air of stratospheric origin estimated from the 7Be simulations with observationally derived estimates indicates excessive cross-tropopause transport at mid-latitudes in simulations using GEOS1-STRAT and at high latitudes using GISS II' meteorological data. These simulations also overestimate 7Be deposition fluxes at mid-latitudes (GEOS1-STRAT) and at high latitudes (GISS II'), respectively. We show that excessive cross-tropopause transport of 7Be corresponds to overestimated stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone. Our perspectives on STE in these meteorological fields based on 7Be simulations are consistent with previous modeling studies of tropospheric ozone using the same meteorological fields. We conclude that the observational constraints for 7Be and observed 7Be total deposition fluxes can be used routinely as a first-order assessment of cross-tropopause transport in global models.

  5. Assessing the existing context and proposed plan of Yazd historical texture from the point of access to emergency services using network analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Khalili

    2012-01-01

    each paths was obtained and the accessibility to the emergency centers was analyzed base on that.3- DiscussionIn the current situation, 40.8 percent of the parcels of Yazd historical texture have access to less than 4 meters of the street, which has reduced to 24 percent by the proposed plan. Also, in the existing context, more than 70 percent of the historical textures are farther (3 minutes from the global standards of accessing the emergency service centers and about 50 percent of the texture reach these services in a later time (8 minutes compared with the common time in Iran. The plan proposals based on the texture organizing and improving the connection network structure has resulted in a noticeable increase of the service area of the existing emergency center and consequently to an access to these services by a considerable part of the texture, such that about 60 percent of the texture has been covered under the global standards (3 min and about 80 percent under Iran common standard (the 8 minute. In the existing situation, in the case of disruption in the connection network and blocking the main paths of accessing the emergency, there is no other appropriate alternative path while in the proposed plan this problem has been resolved somewhat and alternative path or paths are accessible.4- ConclusionYazd historical texture causes an increase in the time of accessing of the citizens inhabitant in the texture to the emergency services in the existing situation due to the organic structure of the street network, while in the case of the disruption in a part of the traffic network, there is no optimum alternative path to be used in the emergency cases; the most important reason of this could be mentioned as not regarding the function hierarchy in the accessing network structure ,the narrow width of the paths and non-applicability of most of the texture paths for the traffic of vehicles, the one way paths and etc. The comprehensive protective plan of Yazd historical

  6. Integrated Monitoring and Assessment Framework of Regional Ecosystem under the Global Climate Change Background

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Global changes are driving ecosystem alterations, and the effects are becoming more and more obvious. Ecosystem management clarifies the fundamental supporting functions of ecosystems for human survival and sustainable development. Integrated ecosystem monitoring and assessment has become a popular topic of ecology study. However, many scientific questions need to be addressed, including what assessment contents and methods are optimal for temporal and spatial measurements. Therefore, the development of a scientific evaluation framework that includes certain core contents and indicators is very important. This paper proposes a regional integrated ecosystem assessment framework involving comprehensive monitoring. Satellite images are the main data source for different ecosystem and ecological parameters, and these need to be supplemented with the help of surveys or field observation data. A healthy ecosystem is the basis of human survival and sustainable development, and ecological service should be taken as the core of integrated ecosystem assessment. This is decided by the spatial distribution, classification, and patterns of regional ecosystems. That is to say, ecological service, together with ecosystems distribution and pattern, ecological problem indicators, and ecological stress, needs to be integrated analyzed and evaluated.

  7. Combining historical and C-14 data to assess pyroclastic density current hazards in Banos city near Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador)

    OpenAIRE

    Le Pennec, Jean-Luc; Ramon, P.; Robin, Claude; Almeida, E.

    2016-01-01

    Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) from Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, recurrently rush down the northern Vazcun valley and threaten the small tourist city of Banos located on its mouth. Estimating PDC hazards, i.e. PDC return rate and extent, is difficult in Banos and Vazcun because data from the literature are rare and debated, while geological exposures are few and vegetated. To improve our awareness of PDC hazards in the Banos area, we examined historical documents, conducted new geologica...

  8. In situ peeling tests for assessing the cohesion and consolidation characteristic of historic plaster and render surfaces

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Drdácký, Miloš; Slížková, Zuzana

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 2 (2015), s. 121-130. ISSN 0039-3630 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0060; GA ČR(CZ) GA103/09/2067 Institutional support: RVO:68378297 Keywords : peeling test * historic render * surface consolidation * cohesion * non-destructive testing Subject RIV: AL - Art, Architecture, Cultural Heritage Impact factor: 0.506, year: 2014

  9. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO2) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. “Indoor products” included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the “Outdoor products” analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO2 emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  10. Assessment of Global Emissions, Local Emissions and Immissions of Different Heating Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georg Erdmann

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses and compares existing and new technologies for space heating in Germany (e.g., heat pumps, and solar thermal and wood pellet systems in terms of their environmental impacts. The various technologies were analyzed within the context of the new German legislation. The assessment was carried out on three levels: 1. Global emissions: a life cycle assessment was carried out in order to find the global environmental footprint of the various technologies; 2. Local emissions: the effects of local emissions on human health were analyzed; and 3. Immissions: the immissions were evaluated for the various technologies using a dispersion calculation. A special feature of this study is the substitution of frequently used database emission values by values obtained from field studies and our own measurements. The results show large differences between the different technologies: while electric heat pumps performed quite well in most categories, wood pellet systems performed the best with respect to climate change. The latter, however, are associated with high impacts in other environmental impact categories and on a local scale. The promotion of some technologies (especially systems based on fuel oil, a mixture of fuel oil and rapeseed oil, or a mixture of natural gas and biomethane by the newly introduced German legislation is doubtful. In terms of the immissions of wood pellet systems, it can be concluded that, even for extremely unfavorable meteorological conditions, the regulatory limits are not exceeded and the heating systems have a negligible influence on the total PM load in the ambient air.

  11. Comparing the Use of Global Rating Scale with Checklists for the Assessment of Central Venous Catheterization Skills Using Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Irene W. Y.; Zalunardo, Nadia; Pachev, George; Beran, Tanya; Brown, Melanie; Hatala, Rose; McLaughlin, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    The use of checklists is recommended for the assessment of competency in central venous catheterization (CVC) insertion. To explore the use of a global rating scale in the assessment of CVC skills, this study seeks to compare its use with two checklists, within the context of a formative examination using simulation. Video-recorded performances of…

  12. The Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation after 55 years: assessing past, present and future developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzer, Stefan; Araguas-Araguas, Luis; Wassenaar, Leonard I.; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.

    2015-04-01

    regionalized cluster-based water isotope prediction model (RCWIP) which uses fuzzy clustering to delineate regions of climatic similarity, and to determine regionalized regression models for each climatic cluster in order to lower prediction uncertainty of isotope values. Here, we present new data and figures on the spatial and temporal evolution of the GNIP network, including station spatial density and coverage analysis. Moreover, we assess outstanding deficits in the spatial coverage of the GNIP network by applying the clustering structure of the RCWIP approach to identify those regions which would benefit most from an improved GNIP sampling. Finally, we present an updated global meteoric water (GMWL) line based on different calculation methods (ordinary least squares method, weighted least squares, or based on weighted means).

  13. Skill assessment of the PELAGOS global ocean biogeochemistry model over the period 1980–2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Vichi

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Global Ocean Biogeochemistry General Circulation Models are useful tools to study biogeochemical processes at global and large scales under current climate and future scenario conditions. The credibility of future estimates is however dependent on the model skill in capturing the observed multi-annual variability of firstly the mean bulk biogeochemical properties, and secondly the rates at which organic matter is processed within the food web. For this double purpose, the results of a multi-annual simulation of the global ocean biogeochemical model PELAGOS have been objectively compared with multi-variate observations from the last 20 years of the 20th century, both considering bulk variables and carbon production/consumption rates. Simulated net primary production (NPP is comparable with satellite-derived estimates at the global scale and when compared with an independent data-set of in situ observations in the equatorial Pacific. The usage of objective skill indicators allowed us to demonstrate the importance of comparing like with like when considering carbon transformation processes. NPP scores improve substantially when in situ data are compared with modeled NPP which takes into account the excretion of freshly-produced dissolved organic carbon (DOC. It is thus recommended that DOC measurements be performed during in situ NPP measurements to quantify the actual production of organic carbon in the surface ocean. The chlorophyll bias in the Southern Ocean that affects this model as well as several others is linked to the inadequate representation of the mixed layer seasonal cycle in the region. A sensitivity experiment confirms that the artificial increase of mixed layer depths towards the observed values substantially reduces the bias. Our assessment results qualify the model for studies of carbon transformation in the surface ocean and metabolic balances. Within the limits of the model assumption and known biases, PELAGOS indicates a net

  14. An Assessment of Fire Regime Changes in the Northern Rocky Mountain Region Using Simulated Historical Fire Maps and Remotely Sensed Current Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, F.; Zhu, Z.; Huang, C.

    2011-12-01

    Wildland fire is a primary ecosystem process that shapes the landscape of Western United States. Changes in fire regime can therefore have profound impact on ecosystem functions and services, including carbon cycling, habitat conditions, and biodiversity. This poster presents a study on current fire regime and changes in the Northern Rocky Mountain region assessed using contemporary and historical fire regimes. Contemporary fire records from 1984 to 2008 were obtained from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project. Historical (pre-EuroAmerican settlement) fire regimes and fire regime condition class (FRCC), produced by the LANDFIRE project, were simulated using a Landscape Succession Model (LANDSUM). We extracted historical fire frequency (Mean Fire Interval) and fire severity (percentage of severe fire) data from LANDFIRE, and calculated current fire frequency and severity using MTBS data by following the FRCC definition, to evaluate changes in fire regimes in Northern Rocky Mountain area. Preliminary results reveal that the current fire regime in Northern Rocky Mountains may exhibit a general pattern of longer return intervals and more severe fires. Biophysical Setting (BpS) map units from LANDFIRE are used as study units to describe environmental gradients and will be used to further examine whether the observed fire regime changes are controlled by land cover or biophysical settings. The findings of this study will help reveal contemporary fire dynamics in this region and serve for future fire studies and other forest management applications.

  15. Global uncertainty assessment in hydrological forecasting by means of statistical analysis of forecast errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanari, A.; Grossi, G.

    2007-12-01

    It is well known that uncertainty assessment in hydrological forecasting is a topical issue. Already in 1905 W.E. Cooke, who was issuing daily weather forecasts in Australia, stated: "It seems to me that the condition of confidence or otherwise form a very important part of the prediction, and ought to find expression". Uncertainty assessment in hydrology involves the analysis of multiple sources of error. The contribution of these latter to the formation of the global uncertainty cannot be quantified independently, unless (a) one is willing to introduce subjective assumptions about the nature of the individual error components or (2) independent observations are available for estimating input error, model error, parameter error and state error. An alternative approach, that is applied in this study and still requires the introduction of some assumptions, is to quantify the global hydrological uncertainty in an integrated way, without attempting to quantify each independent contribution. This methodology can be applied in situations characterized by limited data availability and therefore is gaining increasing attention by end users. This work aims to propose a statistically based approach for assessing the global uncertainty in hydrological forecasting, by building a statistical model for the forecast error xt,d, where t is the forecast time and d is the lead time. Accordingly, the probability distribution of xt,d is inferred through a non linear multiple regression, depending on an arbitrary number of selected conditioning variables. These include the current forecast issued by the hydrological model, the past forecast error and internal state variables of the model. The final goal is to indirectly relate the forecast error to the sources of uncertainty, through a probabilistic link with the conditioning variables. Any statistical model is based on assumptions whose fulfilment is to be checked in order to assure the validity of the underlying theory. Statistical

  16. Building global and diffuse solar radiation series and assessing decadal trends in Girona (NE Iberian Peninsula)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calbó, Josep; González, Josep-Abel; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo

    2016-05-01

    Measurement of solar radiation was initiated in Girona, northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, in the late 1980s. Initially, two pyranometers were installed, one of them equipped with a shadowband for measuring the diffuse component. Two other pyranometers currently exist, both ventilated and one of them shadowed, with a sphere, and a pyrheliometer for measuring direct radiation. Additional instruments for other shortwave and longwave components, clouds, and atmospheric aerosols have been installed in recent years. The station is subject to daily inspection, data are saved at high temporal resolution, and instruments are periodically calibrated, all in accordance with the directions of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The present paper describes how the entire series of global solar radiation (1987-2014) and diffuse radiation (1994-2014) were built, including the quality control process. Appropriate corrections to the diffuse component were made when a shadowband was employed to make measurements. Analysis of the series reveals that annual mean global irradiance presents a statistically significant increase of 2.5 W m-2 (1.4 %) decade-1 (1988-2014 period), mainly due to what occurs in summer (5.6 W m-2 decade-1). These results constitute the first assessment of solar radiation trends for the northeastern region of the Iberian Peninsula and are consistent with trends observed in the regional surroundings and also by satellite platforms, in agreement with the global brightening phenomenon. Diffuse radiation has decreased at -1.3 W m-2 (-2 %) decade-1 (1994-2014 period), which is a further indication of the reduced cloudiness and/or aerosol load causing the changes.

  17. Assessment of Global Carbon Dioxide Concentration Using MODIS and GOSAT Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Tani

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Carbon dioxide (CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas (GHG in the atmosphere and is the greatest contributor to global warming. CO2 concentration data are usually obtained from ground observation stations or from a small number of satellites. Because of the limited number of observations and the short time series of satellite data, it is difficult to monitor CO2 concentrations on regional or global scales for a long time. The use of the remote sensing data such as the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS data can overcome these problems, particularly in areas with low densities of CO2 concentration watch stations. A model based on temperature (MOD11C3, vegetation cover (MOD13C2 and MOD15A2 and productivity (MOD17A2 of MODIS (which we have named the TVP model was developed in the current study to assess CO2 concentrations on a global scale. We assumed that CO2 concentration from the Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observation (TANSO aboard the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT are the true values and we used these values to check the TVP model accuracy. The results indicate that the accuracy of the TVP model is different in different continents: the greatest Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R2 was 0.75 in Eurasia (RMSE = 1.16 and South America (RMSE = 1.17; the lowest R2 was 0.57 in Australia (RMSE = 0.73. Compared with the TANSO-observed CO2 concentration (XCO2, we found that the accuracy throughout the World is between −2.56~3.14 ppm. Potential sources of TVP model uncertainties were also analyzed and identified.

  18. THE ASSESSMENT OF DIFFICULTY OF YACHT SAILING CLASSES AND STUDENTS' GLOBAL SELF-ESTEEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romanowska-Tolloczko Anna

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: determination of relationship between the level of students’ global self-esteem and their perception of the degree of difficulty sailing yacht classes. Material and methods: Study consisted of 178 students of University School of Physical Education in Wrocław. The study used two tools: Polish adaptation of SES M. Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale and a questionnaire designed by the authors of the study. Results: men were characterized by a higher self-esteem than women. Distribution of the results obtained by women was closer to a normal distribution, but it was not completely compatible with it. The relationship was noted between the level of global self-esteem of the students and their perception of the degree of difficulty of the course. People with higher self-esteem assessed the knowledge and skills of sailing as easier. For people with lower levels of self-esteem sailing it was a more difficult. Conclusions: self-acceptance and self-esteem have a substantial impact on goal setting and the perception and taking various tasks. It is therefore important to help young people to build adequate self-esteem and positive self-image, because faith in its own strength and capabilities is a key element in achieving success in every area of life.

  19. Reference methods and materials. A programme of support for regional and global marine pollution assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document describes a programme of comprehensive support for regional and global marine pollution assessments developed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and with the collaboration of a number of other United Nations Specialized agencies including the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). Two of the principle components of this programme, Reference Methods and Reference materials are given special attention in this document and a full Reference Method catalogue is included, giving details of over 80 methods currently available or in an advanced stage of preparation and testing. It is important that these methods are seen as a functional component of a much wider strategy necessary for assuring good quality and intercomparable data for regional and global pollution monitoring and the user is encouraged to read this document carefully before employing Reference Methods and Reference Materials in his/her laboratory. 3 figs

  20. Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

    2015-10-01

    Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (countries suffer deficiencies in all four categories. Of these highly vulnerable countries, Jordan is the most vulnerable, reporting the greatest number of characteristics (5 of 19) at critical vulnerability levels, with Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.

  1. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an EMIC intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.;

    2012-01-01

    forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and...... continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land-use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures...

  2. Assessing the impact of historical coastal landfill sites on sensitive ecosystems: A case study from Dorset, Southern England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Njue, C. N.; Cundy, A. B.; Smith, M.; Green, I. D.; Tomlinson, N.

    2012-12-01

    Uncontrolled landfill disposal can cause the release of significant contamination. In Southern England and in other parts of the UK, historical landfills are located along many coastal and estuarine marshes and mudflats. At these sites waste, often significantly contaminated with heavy metals and other contaminants, was dumped with little engineering control and without regard to the surrounding environment. The aim of this study is to investigate the degree to which heavy metals from these historical sites may have contaminated adjacent marshes and mudflats, using the Lodmoor marsh, Dorset, UK as a test site. Surface and sediment core samples were collected from brackish marsh and mudflat areas around the former landfill at Lodmoor, which was operational between 1949 and 1990. Sediment samples were investigated for metallic pollutants, grain size, and mineralogy, and core samples dated via 137Cs and 210Pb. To examine the transfer of heavy metals through the food chain, Phragmites australis leaves were analysed for metallic pollutants. Geochemical data revealed that sediments from the Lodmoor marsh are probably contaminated with Pb. 137Cs dating indicates that concentration maxima for heavy metals correlate to the 1950s and 1960s when landfill activities commenced in Lodmoor. Shallow electromagnetic surveys indicate potential continued leaching from the historic landfill complex. This study indicates the potential for possible landfill-derived contaminants to persist in coastal systems for decades after landfill closure. Over the longer term, it is possible that salinisation and enhanced coastal erosion may cause significant metal release from the landfills and their surrounding sedimentary systems into adjacent ecosystems.

  3. Global assessment of Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP and Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS version 3 products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Marshall

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Earth observation based long-term global vegetation index products are used by scientists from a wide range of disciplines concerned with global change. Inter-comparison studies are commonly performed to keep the user community informed on the consistency and accuracy of such records as they evolve. In this study, we compared two new records: (1 Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Version 3 (NDVI3g and (2 Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP Version 3 NDVI (NDVI3v and Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI3v. We evaluated the two records via three experiments that addressed the primary use of such records in global change research: (1 prediction of the Leaf Area Index (LAI used in light-use efficiency modeling, (2 estimation of vegetation climatology in Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer models, and (3 trend analysis of the magnitude and phenology of vegetation productivity. Experiment one, unlike previous inter-comparison studies, was performed with a unique Landsat 30 m spatial resolution and in situ LAI database for major crop types on five continents. Overall, the two records showed a high level of agreement both in direction and magnitude on a monthly basis, though VIP values were higher and more variable and showed lower correlations and higher error with in situ LAI. The records were most consistent at northern latitudes during the primary growing season and southern latitudes and the tropics throughout much of the year, while the records were less consistent at northern latitudes during green-up and senescence and in the great deserts of the world throughout much of the year. The two records were also highly consistent in terms of trend direction/magnitude, showing a 30+ year increase (decrease in NDVI over much of the globe (tropical rainforests. The two records were less consistent in terms of timing due to the poor correlation of the records during start and end of growing season.

  4. Sustainability Performance of Scandinavian Corporations and their Value Chains assessed by UN Global Compact and Global Reporting Initiative standards - a way to identify superior performers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to introduce a combination of the two most adopted multi- stakeholder standards for sustainability reporting as an alternate framework for assessing sustainability performance in Scandinavian corporations. This novel approach leverages numeric measures on the criteria...... Strategies & Policies, Management Systems, Monitoring and Evaluation Mechanisms and Key Outcomes on sustainability defined broadly as the Human Rights, Labour, Environment and Anti-Corruption issues by the UN Global Compact. The study firmly concludes that Scandinavian corporations on average are not...

  5. Metrics to assess the mitigation of global warming by carbon capture and storage in the ocean and in geological reservoirs

    OpenAIRE

    Haugan, Peter Mosby; Joos, Fortunat

    2004-01-01

    Different metrics to assess mitigation of global warming by carbon capture and storage are discussed. The climatic impact of capturing 30% of the anthropogenic carbon emission and its storage in the ocean or in geological reservoir are evaluated for different stabilization scenarios using a reduced-form carbon cycle-climate model. The accumulated Global Warming Avoided (GWA) remains, after a ramp-up during the first ~50 years, in the range of 15 to 30% over the next millennium for de...

  6. Assessment of the Effectiveness of Global Climate Policies Using Coupled Bottom-up and Top-down Models

    OpenAIRE

    Labriet, Maryse; Drouet, Laurent; Vielle, Marc; Loulou, Richard; Kanudia, Amit; Haurie, Alain

    2015-01-01

    In order to assess climate mitigation agreements, we propose an iterative procedure linking TIAM-WORLD, a global technology-rich optimization model, and GEMINI-E3, a global general equilibrium model. The coupling methodology combines the precise representation of energy and technology choices with a coherent representation of the macro-economic impacts, especially in terms of trade effects of climate policies on energy-intensive products. In climate mitigation scenarios, drastic technology br...

  7. Assessment of correct fixing rate for precise point positioning ambiguity resolution on a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaohong; Li, Pan

    2013-06-01

    Ambiguity resolution (AR) for a single receiver has been a popular topic in Global Positioning System (GPS) recently. Ambiguity-resolution methods for precise point positioning (PPP) have been well documented in recent years, demonstrating that it can improve the accuracy of PPP. However, users are often concerned about the reliability of ambiguity-fixed PPP solution in practical applications. If ambiguities are fixed to wrong integers, large errors would be introduced into position estimates. In this paper, we aim to assess the correct fixing rate (CFR), i.e., number of ambiguities correctly fixing to the total number of ambiguities correctly and incorrectly fixing, for PPP user ambiguity resolution on a global scale. A practical procedure is presented to evaluate the CFR of PPP user ambiguity resolution. GPS data of the first 3 days in each month of 2010 from about 390 IGS stations are used for experiments. Firstly, we use GPS data collected from about 320 IGS stations to estimate global single-differenced (SD) wide-lane and narrow-lane satellite uncalibrated phase delays (UPDs). The quality of UPDs is evaluated. We found that wide-lane UPD estimates have a rather small standard deviation (Std) between 0.003 and 0.004 cycles while most of Std of narrow-lane estimates are from 0.01 to 0.02 cycles. Secondly, many experiments have been conducted to investigate the CFR of integer ambiguity resolution we can achieve under different conditions, including reference station density, observation session length and the ionospheric activity. The results show that the CFR of PPP can exceed 98.0 % with only 1 h of observations for most user stations. No obvious correlation between the CFR and the reference station density is found. Therefore, nearly homogeneous CFR can be achieved in PPP AR for global users. At user end, higher CFR could be achieved with longer observations. The average CFR for 30-min, 1-h, 2-h and 4-h observation is 92.3, 98.2, 99.5 and 99.7 %, respectively

  8. Global database of InSAR earthquake source models: A tool for independently assessing seismic catalogues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, A. M.; Weston, J. M.; Funning, G. J.

    2011-12-01

    Earthquake source models are routinely determined using seismic data and are reported in many seismic catalogues, such as the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue. Recent advances in space geodesy, such as InSAR, have enabled the estimation of earthquake source parameters from the measurement of deformation of the Earth's surface, independently of seismic information. The absence of an earthquake catalogue based on geodetic data prompted the compilation of a large InSAR database of CMT parameters from the literature (Weston et al., 2011, hereafter referred to as the ICMT database). Information provided in published InSAR studies of earthquakes is used to obtain earthquake source parameters, and equivalent CMT parameters. Multiple studies of the same earthquake are included in the database, as they are valuable to assess uncertainties in source models. Here, source parameters for 70 earthquakes in an updated version of the ICMT database are compared with those reported in global and regional seismic catalogues. There is overall good agreement between parameters, particularly in fault strike, dip and rake. However, InSAR centroid depths are systematically shallower (5-10 km) than those in the EHB catalogue, but this is reduced for depths from inversions of InSAR data that use a layered half-space. Estimates of the seismic moment generally agree well between the two datasets, but for thrust earthquakes there is a slight tendency for the InSAR-determined seismic moment to be larger. Centroid locations from the ICMT database are in good agreement with those from regional seismic catalogues with a median distance of ~6 km between them, which is smaller than for comparisons with global catalogues (17.0 km and 9.2 km for the GCMT and ISC catalogues, respectively). Systematic tests of GCMT-like inversions have shown that similar mislocations occur for several different degree 20 Earth models (Ferreira et al., 2011), suggesting that higher resolution Earth models

  9. Risk assessment, eradication, and biological control: global efforts to limit Australian acacia invasions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, John R.U.; Gairifo, Carla; Gibson, Michelle R.; Arianoutsou, Margarita; Bakar, Baki B.; Baret, Stephane; Celesti-Grapow, Laura; DiTomaso, Joseph M.; Dufour-Dror, Jean-Marc; Kueffer, Christoph; Kull, Christian A.; Hoffman, John H.; Impson, Fiona A.C.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Marchante, Elizabete; Harchante, Helia; Moore, Joslin L.; Murphy, Daniel J.; Tassin, Jacques; Witt, Arne; Zenni, Rafael D.; Richardson, David M.

    2011-01-01

    Aim Many Australian Acacia species have been planted around the world, some are highly valued, some are invasive, and some are both highly valued and invasive. We review global efforts to minimize the risk and limit the impact of invasions in this widely used plant group. Location Global. Methods Using information from literature sources, knowledge and experience of the authors, and the responses from a questionnaire sent to experts around the world, we reviewed: (1) a generalized life cycle of Australian acacias and how to control each life stage, (2) different management approaches and (3) what is required to help limit or prevent invasions. Results Relatively few Australian acacias have been introduced in large numbers, but all species with a long and extensive history of planting have become invasive somewhere. Australian acacias, as a group, have a high risk of becoming invasive and causing significant impacts as determined by existing assessment schemes. Moreover, in most situations, long-lived seed banks mean it is very difficult to control established infestations. Control has focused almost exclusively on widespread invaders, and eradication has rarely been attempted. Classical biological control is being used in South Africa with increasing success. Main conclusions A greater emphasis on pro-active rather than reactive management is required given the difficulties managing established invasions of Australian acacias. Adverse effects of proposed new introductions can be minimized by conducting detailed risk assessments in advance, planning for on-going monitoring and management, and ensuring resources are in place for long-term mitigation. Benign alternatives (e.g. sterile hybrids) could be developed to replace existing utilized taxa. Eradication should be set as a management goal more often to reduce the invasion debt. Introducing classical biological control agents that have a successful track-record in South Africa to other regions and identifying new

  10. Global Assessment of Methane Gas Hydrates: Outreach for the public and policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoin, Yannick

    2010-05-01

    The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), via its official collaborating center in Norway, GRID-Arendal, is in the process of implementing a Global Assessment of Methane Gas Hydrates. Global reservoirs of methane gas have long been the topic of scientific discussion both in the realm of environmental issues such as natural forces of climate change and as a potential energy resource for economic development. Of particular interest are the volumes of methane locked away in frozen molecules known as clathrates or hydrates. Our rapidly evolving scientific knowledge and technological development related to methane hydrates makes these formations increasingly prospective to economic development. In addition, global demand for energy continues, and will continue to outpace supply for the foreseeable future, resulting in pressure to expand development activities, with associated concerns about environmental and social impacts. Understanding the intricate links between methane hydrates and 1) natural and anthropogenic contributions to climate change, 2) their role in the carbon cycle (e.g. ocean chemistry) and 3) the environmental and socio-economic impacts of extraction, are key factors in making good decisions that promote sustainable development. As policy makers, environmental organizations and private sector interests seek to forward their respective agendas which tend to be weighted towards applied research, there is a clear and imminent need for a an authoritative source of accessible information on various topics related to methane gas hydrates. The 2008 United Nations Environment Programme Annual Report highlighted methane from the Arctic as an emerging challenge with respect to climate change and other environmental issues. Building upon this foundation, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, in conjunction with experts from national hydrates research groups from Canada, the US, Japan, Germany, Norway, India and Korea, aims to provide a multi-thematic overview of the key

  11. Assessing the impacts of changes in treatment technology on energy and greenhouse gas balances for organic waste and wastewater treatment using historical data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jens Aage; Poulsen, Tjalfe

    2009-01-01

    Historical data on organic waste and wastewater treatment during the period of 1970ĝ€"2020 were used to assess the impact of treatment on energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances. The assessment included the waste fractions: Sewage sludge, food waste, yard waste and other organic waste (paper...... production from the remaining organic municipal waste. Wastewater treatment has changed from direct discharge of untreated wastewater to full organic matter and nutrient (N, P) removal combined with anaerobic digestion of the sludge for biogas production with power and heat generation. These changes in......, plastic, etc.). Data were collected from Aalborg, a municipality located in Northern Denmark. During the period from 1970ĝ€"2005, Aalborg Municipality has changed its waste treatment strategy from landfilling of all wastes toward composting of yard waste and incineration with combined heat and power...

  12. The Key Role of Eyewitnesses in Rapid Impact Assessment of Global Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Etivant, C.; Frobert, L.; Godey, S.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainties in rapid impact assessments of global earthquakes are intrinsically large because they rely on 3 main elements (ground motion prediction models, building stock inventory and related vulnerability) which values and/or spatial variations are poorly constrained. Furthermore, variations of hypocentral location and magnitude within their respective uncertainty domain can lead to significantly different shaking level for centers of population and change the scope of the disaster. We present the strategy and methods implemented at the Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) to rapidly collect in-situ observations on earthquake effects from eyewitnesses for reducing uncertainties of rapid earthquake impact assessment. It comprises crowdsourced information (online questionnaires, pics) as well as information derived from real time analysis of web traffic (flashourcing technique), and more recently deployment of QCN (Quake Catcher Network) low cost sensors. We underline the importance of merging results of different methods to improve performances and reliability of collected data.We try to better understand and respond to public demands and expectations after earthquakes through improved information services and diversification of information tools (social networks, smartphone app., browsers adds-on…), which, in turn, drive more eyewitnesses to our services and improve data collection. We will notably present our LastQuake Twitter feed (Quakebot) and smartphone applications (IOs and android) which only report earthquakes that matter for the public and authorities, i.e. felt and damaging earthquakes identified thanks to citizen generated information.

  13. Robotic surgery training: construct validity of Global Evaluative Assessment of Robotic Skills (GEARS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, Renata; Rodríguez, Omaira; Rosciano, José; Vegas, Liumariel; Bond, Verónica; Rojas, Aram; Sanchez-Ismayel, Alexis

    2016-09-01

    The objective of this study is to determine the ability of the GEARS scale (Global Evaluative Assessment of Robotic Skills) to differentiate individuals with different levels of experience in robotic surgery, as a fundamental validation. This is a cross-sectional study that included three groups of individuals with different levels of experience in robotic surgery (expert, intermediate, novice) their performance were assessed by GEARS applied by two reviewers. The difference between groups was determined by Mann-Whitney test and the consistency between the reviewers was studied by Kendall W coefficient. The agreement between the reviewers of the scale GEARS was 0.96. The score was 29.8 ± 0.4 to experts, 24 ± 2.8 to intermediates and 16 ± 3 to novices, with a statistically significant difference between all of them (p robotic surgery and, therefore, is a validated and useful tool to evaluate surgeons in training. PMID:27039189

  14. Nutritional status of patients treated with radiotherapy as determined by subjective global assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koom, Woong Sub; Keum, Ki Chang [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ahn, Seung Do [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); and others

    2012-09-15

    The purpose of this prospective multi-institutional study was to evaluate the nutritional status of patients undergoing radiotherapy (RT) for treatment of head and neck, lung, or gastrointestinal cancer. A total of 1,000 patients were enrolled in this study at seven different hospitals in Seoul, Korea between October 2009 and May 2010. The nutritional status of patients after receiving 3 weeks of RT was evaluated using subjective global assessment (SGA). The nutritional status of each patient was rated as well nourished (A), moderately malnourished (B), or severely malnourished (C). The mean age of patients in this study was 59.4 {+-} 11.9 years, and the male to female ratio was 7:3. According to the SGA results, 60.8%, 34.5%, and 4.7% of patients were classified as A, B, or C, respectively. The following criteria were significantly associated with malnutrition (SGA B or C; p < 0.001): loss of subcutaneous fat or muscle wasting (odds ratio [OR], 11.473); increased metabolic demand/stress (OR, 8.688); ankle, sacral edema, or ascites (OR, 3.234); and weight loss 5% (OR, 2.299). SGA was applied successfully to assess the nutritional status of most patients. The prevalence of malnutrition in a radiation oncology department was 39.2%. The results of this study serve as a basis for implementation of nutrition intervention to patients being treated at radiation oncology departments.

  15. Nutritional status of patients treated with radiotherapy as determined by subjective global assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this prospective multi-institutional study was to evaluate the nutritional status of patients undergoing radiotherapy (RT) for treatment of head and neck, lung, or gastrointestinal cancer. A total of 1,000 patients were enrolled in this study at seven different hospitals in Seoul, Korea between October 2009 and May 2010. The nutritional status of patients after receiving 3 weeks of RT was evaluated using subjective global assessment (SGA). The nutritional status of each patient was rated as well nourished (A), moderately malnourished (B), or severely malnourished (C). The mean age of patients in this study was 59.4 ± 11.9 years, and the male to female ratio was 7:3. According to the SGA results, 60.8%, 34.5%, and 4.7% of patients were classified as A, B, or C, respectively. The following criteria were significantly associated with malnutrition (SGA B or C; p < 0.001): loss of subcutaneous fat or muscle wasting (odds ratio [OR], 11.473); increased metabolic demand/stress (OR, 8.688); ankle, sacral edema, or ascites (OR, 3.234); and weight loss 5% (OR, 2.299). SGA was applied successfully to assess the nutritional status of most patients. The prevalence of malnutrition in a radiation oncology department was 39.2%. The results of this study serve as a basis for implementation of nutrition intervention to patients being treated at radiation oncology departments.

  16. Metabolomic and high-throughput sequencing analysis-modern approach for the assessment of biodeterioration of materials from historic buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutarowska, Beata; Celikkol-Aydin, Sukriye; Bonifay, Vincent; Otlewska, Anna; Aydin, Egemen; Oldham, Athenia L; Brauer, Jonathan I; Duncan, Kathleen E; Adamiak, Justyna; Sunner, Jan A; Beech, Iwona B

    2015-01-01

    Preservation of cultural heritage is of paramount importance worldwide. Microbial colonization of construction materials, such as wood, brick, mortar, and stone in historic buildings can lead to severe deterioration. The aim of the present study was to give modern insight into the phylogenetic diversity and activated metabolic pathways of microbial communities colonized historic objects located in the former Auschwitz II-Birkenau concentration and extermination camp in Oświecim, Poland. For this purpose we combined molecular, microscopic and chemical methods. Selected specimens were examined using Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM), metabolomic analysis and high-throughput Illumina sequencing. FESEM imaging revealed the presence of complex microbial communities comprising diatoms, fungi and bacteria, mainly cyanobacteria and actinobacteria, on sample surfaces. Microbial diversity of brick specimens appeared higher than that of the wood and was dominated by algae and cyanobacteria, while wood was mainly colonized by fungi. DNA sequences documented the presence of 15 bacterial phyla representing 99 genera including Halomonas, Halorhodospira, Salinisphaera, Salinibacterium, Rubrobacter, Streptomyces, Arthrobacter and nine fungal classes represented by 113 genera including Cladosporium, Acremonium, Alternaria, Engyodontium, Penicillium, Rhizopus, and Aureobasidium. Most of the identified sequences were characteristic of organisms implicated in deterioration of wood and brick. Metabolomic data indicated the activation of numerous metabolic pathways, including those regulating the production of primary and secondary metabolites, for example, metabolites associated with the production of antibiotics, organic acids and deterioration of organic compounds. The study demonstrated that a combination of electron microscopy imaging with metabolomic and genomic techniques allows to link the phylogenetic information and metabolic profiles of microbial communities

  17. Metabolomic and high-throughput sequencing analysis – modern approach for the assessment of biodeterioration of materials from historic buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beata eGutarowska

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Preservation of cultural heritage is of paramount importance worldwide. Microbial colonization of construction materials, such as wood, brick, mortar and stone in historic buildings can lead to severe deterioration. The aim of the present study was to give modern insight into the phylogenetic diversity and activated metabolic pathways of microbial communities colonized historic objects located in the former Auschwitz II-Birkenau concentration and extermination camp in Oświęcim, Poland. For this purpose we combined molecular, microscopic and chemical methods. Selected specimens were examined using Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM, metabolomic analysis and high-throughput Illumina sequencing. FESEM imaging revealed the presence of complex microbial communities comprising diatoms, fungi and bacteria, mainly cyanobacteria and actinobacteria, on sample surfaces. Microbial diversity of brick specimens appeared higher than that of the wood and was dominated by algae and cyanobacteria, while wood was mainly colonized by fungi. DNA sequences documented the presence of 15 bacterial phyla representing 99 genera including Halomonas, Halorhodospira, Salinisphaera, Salinibacterium, Rubrobacter, Streptomyces, Arthrobacter and 9 fungal classes represented by 113 genera including Cladosporium, Acremonium, Alternaria, Engyodontium, Penicillium, Rhizopus and Aureobasidium. Most of the identified sequences were characteristic of organisms implicated in deterioration of wood and brick. Metabolomic data indicated the activation of numerous metabolic pathways, including those regulating the production of primary and secondary metabolites, for example, metabolites associated with the production of antibiotics, organic acids and deterioration of organic compounds. The study demonstrated that a combination of electron microscopy imaging with metabolomic and genomic techniques allows to link the phylogenetic information and metabolic profiles of

  18. A Conceptual Framework for Assessment of the Benefits of a Global Earth Observation System of Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, S.; Scholes, R. J.; Obersteiner, M.; Bouma, J.

    2007-12-01

    The aim of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) is to contribute to human wellbeing though improving the information available to decision-makers at all levels relating to human health and safety, protection of the global environment, the reduction of losses from natural disasters, and achieving sustainable development. Specifically, GEOSS proposes that better international co-operation in the collection, interpretation and sharing of Earth Observation information is an important and cost-effective mechanism for achieving this aim. While there is a widespread intuition that this proposition is correct, at some point the following question needs to be answered: how much additional investment in Earth Observation (and specifically, in its international integration) is enough? This leads directly to some challenging subsidiary questions, such as how can the benefits of Earth Observation be assessed? What are the incremental costs of GEOSS? Are there societal benefit areas where the return on investment is higher than in others? The Geo-Bene project has developed a `benefit chain' concept as a framework for addressing these questions. The basic idea is that an incremental improvement in the observing system (including its data collection, interpretation and information-sharing aspects) will result in an improvement in the quality of decisions based on that information. This will in turn lead to better societal outcomes, which have a value. This incremental value must be judged against the incremental cost of the improved observation system. Since in many cases there will be large uncertainties in the estimation of both the costs and the benefits, and it may not be possible to express one or both of them in monetary terms, we show how order-of-magnitude approaches and a qualitative understanding of the shape of the cost-benefit curves can help guide rational investment decision in Earth Observation systems.

  19. Assessment of global morphological and topological changes in trabecular structure under the bone resorption process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidorenko, Irina N.; Bauer, Jan; Monetti, Roberto; Baum, Thomas; Rummeny, Ernst J.; Eckstein, Felix; Matsuura, Maiko; Lochmueller, Eva-Maria; Zysset, Philippe K.; Raeth, Christoph W.

    2012-03-01

    Osteoporosis is a frequent skeletal disease characterised both by loss of bone mineral mass and deterioration of cancellous bone micro-architecture. It can be caused by mechanical disuse, estrogen deficiency or natural age-related resorption process. Numerical analysis of high-resolution images of the trabecular network is recognised as a powerful tool for assessment of structural characteristics. Using μCT images of 73 thoracic and 78 lumbar human vertebral specimens in vitro with isotropic resolution of 26μm we simulate bone atrophy as random resorption of bone surface voxels. Global morphological and topological characteristics provided by four Minkowski Functionals (MF) are calculated for two numerical resorption models with and without conservation of global topological connectivity of the trabecular network, which simulates different types of bone loss in osteoporosis, as it has been described in males and females. Diagnostic performance of morphological and topological characteristics as a function of relative bone loss is evaluated by a correlation analysis with respect to experimentally measured Maximum Compressive Strength (MCS). In both resorption models the second MF, which coincides with bone surface fraction BS/TV, demonstrates almost constant value of Pearson's correlation coefficient with respect to the relative bone loss ▵BV/TV. This morphological characteristic does not vary considerably under age-related random resorption and can be used for predicting bone strength in the elderly. The third and fourth MF demonstrate an increasing correlation coefficients with MCS after applying random bone surface thinning without preserving topological connectivity, what can be used for improvement of evaluation of the current state of the structure.

  20. Assessing the date of the global oil peak: The need to use 2P reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable ('2P') oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited peak of conventional oil production. The data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close. Many analysts who rely only on proved ('1P') oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously under-reported, over-reported and not reported. Reliance on 1P data has led to a number of misconceptions, including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect, that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain, and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to 'turn resources into reserves'. These misconceptions have been widely held, including within academia, governments, some oil companies, and organisations such as the IEA. In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil. Most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non-conventional oils are unlikely to come on-stream fast enough to offset conventional's decline. To determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non-conventional oils, as well as oil from gas, coal and biomass, and of oil substitution. Such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead-times, as well as rate constraints on investment, pollution, and net-energy return

  1. Assessment of Speckle-Tracking Echocardiography-Derived Global Deformation Parameters During Supine Exercise in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Michael Y; Tacy, Theresa; Chin, Clifford; Obayashi, Derek Y; Punn, Rajesh

    2016-03-01

    Exercise echocardiography is an underutilized tool in pediatrics with current applications including detecting segmental wall abnormalities, assessing the utility of global ventricular function, and measuring pulmonary hemodynamics. No prior study has applied speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) during exercise echocardiography in children. The aim of this study was to determine the feasibility of measuring speckle-tracking-derived peak systolic velocities, global longitudinal and circumferential strain, and global strain rates at various phases of exercise. Ninety-seven healthy children underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing using supine cycle ergometry. The exercise stress test consisted of baseline pulmonary function testing, monitoring of blood pressure and heart rate responses, electrocardiographic recordings, and oxygen saturations while subjects pedaled against a ramp protocol based on body weight. Echocardiographic measurements and specifically speckle-tracking analysis were performed during exercise at baseline, at a heart rate of 160 beats per minute and at 10 min after exercise. Peak systolic velocity, peak systolic strain, and peak systolic strain rate at these three phases were compared in the subjects in which all measurements were accurately obtained. We were able to complete peak velocity, strain, and strain rate measurements in all three exercise phases for 36 out of the 97 subjects tested. There was no significant difference between the feasibility of measuring circumferential versus longitudinal strain (p = 0.25, B-corrected = 0.75). In the 36 subjects studied, the magnitude of circumferential strain values decreased from -18.3 ± 4.8 to -13.7 ± 4.0 % from baseline to HR 160 (p fps) and higher (≥60 fps) frame rates. This study shows that it is technically difficult to retrospectively measure peak velocities, strain, and strain rate in exercising pediatric subjects with STE. The majority of subjects that were excluded from

  2. Assessment of the Global Monthly Mean Surface Insolation Estimated from Satellite Measurements Using Global Energy Balance Archive Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhanqing; Whitlock, Charles H.; Charlock, Thomas P.

    1995-02-01

    Global datasets of surface radiation budget (SRB) have been obtained from satellite programs. These satellite-based estimates need validation with ground-truth observations. This study validates the estimates of monthly mean surface insolation contained in two satellite-based SRB datasets with the surface measurements made at worldwide radiation stations from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). One dataset was developed from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) using the algorithm of Li et al. (ERBE/SRB), and the other from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) using the algorithm of Pinker and Laszlo and that of Staylor (GEWEX/SRB). Since the ERBE/SRB data contain the surface net solar radiation only, the values of surface insolation were derived by making use of the surface albedo data contained in the GEWEX/SRB product. The resulting surface insolation has a bias error near zero and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) between 8 and 28 W m2. The RMSE is mainly associated with poor representation of surface observations within a grid cell. When the number of surface observations are sufficient, the random error is estimated to be about 5 W m2 with present satellite-based estimates. In addition to demonstrating the strength of the retrieving method, the small random error demonstrates how well the ERBE derives the monthly mean fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). A larger scatter is found for the comparison of transmissivity than for that of insolation. Month to month comparison of insolation reveals a weak seasonal trend in bias error with an amplitude of about 3 W m2. As for the insolation data from the GEWEX/SRB, larger bias errors of 5-10 W m2 are evident with stronger seasonal trends and almost identical RMSEs.

  3. Human Health Risk Assessment due to Global Warming – A Case Study of the Gulf Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husain, Tahir; Chaudhary, Junaid Rafi

    2008-01-01

    Accelerated global warming is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The climate changes are anticipated to have a long-term impact on human health, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources and vegetation. Due to rising sea levels, low lying coastal regions will be flooded, farmlands will be threatened and scarcity of fresh water resources will be aggravated. This will in turn cause increased human suffering in different parts of the world. Spread of disease vectors will contribute towards high mortality, along with the heat related deaths. Arid and hot climatic regions will face devastating effects risking survival of the fragile plant species, wild animals, and other desert ecosystems. The paper presents future changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity and their direct and indirect potential impacts on human health in the coastal regions of the Gulf countries including Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. The analysis is based on the long-term changes in the values of temperature, precipitation and humidity as predicted by the global climatic simulation models under different scenarios of GHG emission levels. Monthly data on temperature, precipitation, and humidity were retrieved from IPCC databases for longitude 41.25°E to 61.875°E and latitude 9.278°N to 27.833°N. Using an average of 1970 to 2000 values as baseline, the changes in the humidity, temperature and precipitation were predicted for the period 2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2099. Based on epidemiological studies on various diseases associated with the change in temperature, humidity and precipitation in arid and hot regions, empirical models were developed to assess human health risk in the Gulf region to predict elevated levels of diseases and mortality rates under different emission scenarios as developed by the IPCC. The preliminary assessment indicates increased mortality rates

  4. Disaster resilience assessment and the global agenda: A journey from India to South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanchiotti, Margherita; Torres, Jair; Burton, Christopher; Makarigakis, Alexandros

    2016-04-01

    Governments and stakeholders worldwide are placing great emphasis on fostering the resilience of communities to natural hazards and disasters. This is partially because communities that can increase their resilience are in a better position to withstand the adverse effects of damaging hazard events when they occur. With disaster risk reduction having emerged as a global challenge, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 has recognised the need to invest in enhancing disaster resilience as a priority on the international agenda. In order to successfully build community resilience to natural hazards, it then becomes essential to first understand, identify and assess all sets of conditions that contribute to resilience. The ability to measure resilience is increasingly being identified as a key step towards disaster risk reduction as a result. Relatively few studies, however, have been conducted to develop guidelines for measuring the concept, and more research is needed to develop effective tools for assessment of resilience in developing countries. This is because various environmental, built-environment, and social factors will operate and interact differentially across disaster and development contexts. This paper presents preliminary findings from two large projects in which the authors have been involved, namely the 'Enhancing Natural HAzards resilience iN South America' (ENHANS) and 'Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation' (DECCMA) projects. In collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model (GEM), the Understanding and Managing Extremes (UME) School of the Institute for Advanced Study (IUSS) of Pavia and the University of Southampton, UNESCO is working on the development of methods for disaster resilience measurement in developing nations. The studies build on the available literature to provide an ad-hoc conceptual framework for the quantification of community resilience in each study site by means of a bottom

  5. Historical background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper presents a historical review of the development of ion beam microanalysis. A description is given of the analysis and imaging techniques. The development of the two different sorts of microbeam system, collimated and focused, is described, along with their associated equipment. A brief outline of the use of microbeams is given. (UK)

  6. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; S. Schaphoff; Frieler, K.; C. Müller; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

    2013-01-01

    In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of tempe...

  7. Pu`ukohola Heiau National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project - Field Plots, Observation and Accuracy Assessment Points

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This metadata is for the 2008 vegetation (classification) field plots (spatial database) and 2010 accuracy assessment points (spatial database) created from the...

  8. Research contributions for assessment of the state and evolution of the global environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Global Environment Assessment (GEO) workshop was held in Brussels on September 15 and 16, 1998. During the preparation of policy-oriented reports of GEO, several gaps in data and expertise had been identified. The workshop elaborated on the issues where gaps had been signalled aimed to bring together scientists from different disciplines, representatives of the Directorate General XII and specialists from RIVM in integrated environmental assessment to locate information missing in UNEP's studies and make progress in filling up gaps. Research needs would be identified. The specific issues were categorised as: land-related issues, urban environment and implementation of policies. The workshop participants were able to identify several links between the activities for GEO and ongoing research in the context of the EU Research, Technology Development and the Demonstration programme. About 15 more specific research needs were formulated. For land-related issues, the following knowledge gaps and research implications were identified: (1) e.g. social and economic expertise in land-use analysis, (2) e.g. land-use planning and urban land use in integrated assessment, (3) modelling land degradation, and (4) modelling the driving forces of land degradation. For the urban environment, the major knowledge research areas identified from an integrative perspective were: (1) defining a core set of indicators for sustainable urban development, (2) quantifying the interlinkages between environmental stress and human health, (3) describing the effects of measures, (4) determining the role of institutional structures, and (5) ensuring data provision based on the physical city. Major problems were identified for implementation of policies that the degree of policy implementation is not often measured and that it is difficult to relate policy actions to changes in environmental pressures. In analysis it is first of all necessary to identify which definition of effectiveness will be

  9. Clinical application of subjective global assessment in Chinese patients with gastrointestinal cancer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bei-Wen Wu; Tao Yin; Wei-Xin Cao; Zhi-Dong Gu; Xiao-Jin Wang; Min Yan; Bing-Ya Liu

    2009-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the role of subjective global assessment (SGA) in nutritional assessment and outcome prediction of Chinese patients with gastrointestinal cancer. METHODS: A total of 751 patients diagnosed with gastrointestinal cancer between August 2004 and August 2006 were enrolled in this study. Within 72 h after admission, SGA, anthropometric parameters, and laboratory tests were used to assess the nutritional status of each patient. The outcome variables including hospital stay, complications, and in-hospital medical expenditure were also obtained. RESULTS: Based on the results of SGA, 389 (51.8%), 332 (44.2%), and 30 (4.0%) patients were classified into well nourished group (SGA-A), mildly to moderately malnourished group (SGA-B), and severely malnourished group (SGA-C), respectively. The prevalence of malnutrition classified by SGA, triceps skinfold thickness (TSF), mid-upper arm muscle circumference (MAMC), albumin (ALB), prealbumin (PA), and body mass index (BMI) was 48.2%, 39.4%, 37.7%, 31.3%, 21.7%, and 9.6%, respectively. In addition, ANOVA tests revealed significant differences in body mass index (BMI), TSF, PA, and ALB of patients in different SGA groups. The more severely malnourished the patient was, the lower the levels of BMI, TSF, PA, and ALB were ( P < 0.05). c2 tests showed a significant difference in SGA classification between patients receiving different types of treatment (surgery vs chemotherapy/radiotherapy). As the nutritional status classified by SGA deteriorated, the patients stayed longer in hospital and their medical expenditures increased significantly. Furthermore, multiple regression analysis showed that SGA and serum ALB could help predict the medical expenditures and hospital stay of patients undergoing surgery. The occurrence of complications increased in parallel with the increasing grade of SGA, and was the highest in the SGA-C group (23.3%) and the lowest in the SGA-A group (16.8%). CONCLUSION: SGA is a reliable

  10. Comparing the use of global rating scale with checklists for the assessment of central venous catheterization skills using simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Irene W Y; Zalunardo, Nadia; Pachev, George; Beran, Tanya; Brown, Melanie; Hatala, Rose; McLaughlin, Kevin

    2012-10-01

    The use of checklists is recommended for the assessment of competency in central venous catheterization (CVC) insertion. To explore the use of a global rating scale in the assessment of CVC skills, this study seeks to compare its use with two checklists, within the context of a formative examination using simulation. Video-recorded performances of CVC insertion by 34 first-year medical residents were reviewed by two independent, trained evaluators. Each evaluator used three assessment tools: a ten-item checklist, a 21-item checklist, and a nine-item global rating scale. Exploratory principal component analysis of the global rating scale revealed two factors, accounting for 84.1% of the variance: technical ability and safety. The two checklist scores correlated positively with the weighted factor score on technical ability (0.49 [95% CI 0.17-0.71] for the 10-item checklist; 0.43 [95% CI 0.10-0.67] for the 21-item checklist) and negatively with the weighted factor score on safety (-0.17 [95% CI -0.48-0.18] for the 10-item checklist; -0.13 [95% CI -0.45-0.22] for the 21-item checklist). A checklist score of 80% on both checklists. All these candidates committed serious errors. In conclusion, the practice of universal adoption of checklists as the preferred method of assessment of procedural skills should be questioned. The inclusion of global rating scales should be considered. PMID:21877217

  11. Which part of a short, global risk assessment, the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community, predicts adverse healthcare outcomes?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O’Caoimh, Rónán

    2015-01-01

    The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC) is a short, global risk assessment to identify community-dwelling older adults’ one-year risk of institutionalisation, hospitalisation, and death. We investigated the contribution that the three components of the RISC (\

  12. GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture (discussion paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogeveen, J.; Faures, J.M.; Peiser, L.; Burke, J.; Van de Giesen, N.C.

    2015-01-01

    GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by FAO to assess water use in irrigated agriculture; the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high resolution datasets that are consisten

  13. CropWatch agroclimatic indicators (CWAIs) for weather impact assessment on global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gommes, René; Wu, Bingfang; Zhang, Ning; Feng, Xueliang; Zeng, Hongwei; Li, Zhongyuan; Chen, Bo

    2016-07-01

    CropWatch agroclimatic indicators (CWAIs) are a monitoring tool developed by the CropWatch global crop monitoring system in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS; www.cropwatch.com.cn, Wu et al Int J Digital Earth 7(2):113-137, 2014, Wu et al Remote Sens 7:3907-3933, 2015). Contrary to most other environmental and agroclimatic indicators, they are "agronomic value-added", i.e. they are spatial values averaged over agricultural areas only and they include a weighting that enhances the contribution of the areas with the largest production potential. CWAIs can be computed for any time interval (starting from dekads) and yield one synthetic value per variable over a specific area and time interval, for instance a national annual value. Therefore, they are very compatible with socio-economic and other variables that are usually reported at regular time intervals over administrative units, such as national environmental or agricultural statistics. Two of the CWAIs are satellite-based (RAIN and Photosynthetically Active radiation, PAR) while the third is ground based (TEMP, air temperature); capitals are used when specifically referring to CWAIs rather than the climate variables in general. The paper first provides an overview of some common agroclimatic indicators, describing their procedural, systemic and normative features in subsequent sections, following the terminology of Binder et al Environ Impact Assess Rev 30:71-81 (2010). The discussion focuses on the systemic and normative aspects: the CWAIs are assessed in terms of their coherent description of the agroclimatic crop environment, at different spatial scales (systemic). The final section shows that the CWAIs retain key statistical properties of the underlying climate variables and that they can be compared to a reference value and used as monitoring and early warning variables (normative).

  14. Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einheuser, Matthew D.; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Wang, Lizhu; Sowa, Scott P.; Woznicki, Sean A.

    2013-06-01

    Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R 2 = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.

  15. Simple Method for Assessing Spread of Flood Prone Areas under Historical and Future Rainfall in the Upper Citarum Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Dwi Dasanto

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available From 1931 to 2010 the flood frequency in Upper Citarum Watershed had increased sharply indicating the decline of the wateshed quality. With the change of climate, risk of the flood may get worse. This study aims to determine effective rainfall that caused flooding and to evaluate the impact of future rainfall changes on the flood prone areas. Effective rainfall which contributes to direct runoff (DRO and leads to flooding was determined using regression equation relating the DRO and cumulative rainfall of a number of consecutive days. Mapping the flood prone areas was developed using the GIS techniques. Results showed that the effective rainfall which caused flooding was the rainfall accumulation for four consecutive days before occurrence of peak of DRO. The percentage of accuracy between estimated and actual flood maps was about 76.9%. According to historical rainfall, the flood prone areas spreaded at right and left directions of the Upstream Citarum River. If this area experiences the climate change, the frequency and flood extents will increase. This study can only identify locations and possibility of flood occurrence but it cannot demonstrate widespread of flood inundation precisely. However, this simple approach can evaluate the flood frequency and intensity quite well.

  16. Safety assessment of historical masonry churches based on pre-assigned kinematic limit analysis, FE limit and pushover analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milani, Gabriele, E-mail: milani@stru.polimi.it; Valente, Marco, E-mail: milani@stru.polimi.it [Department of Architecture, Built Environment and Construction Engineering (ABC), Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan (Italy)

    2014-10-06

    This study presents some results of a comprehensive numerical analysis on three masonry churches damaged by the recent Emilia-Romagna (Italy) seismic events occurred in May 2012. The numerical study comprises: (a) pushover analyses conducted with a commercial code, standard nonlinear material models and two different horizontal load distributions; (b) FE kinematic limit analyses performed using a non-commercial software based on a preliminary homogenization of the masonry materials and a subsequent limit analysis with triangular elements and interfaces; (c) kinematic limit analyses conducted in agreement with the Italian code and based on the a-priori assumption of preassigned failure mechanisms, where the masonry material is considered unable to withstand tensile stresses. All models are capable of giving information on the active failure mechanism and the base shear at failure, which, if properly made non-dimensional with the weight of the structure, gives also an indication of the horizontal peak ground acceleration causing the collapse of the church. The results obtained from all three models indicate that the collapse is usually due to the activation of partial mechanisms (apse, façade, lateral walls, etc.). Moreover the horizontal peak ground acceleration associated to the collapse is largely lower than that required in that seismic zone by the Italian code for ordinary buildings. These outcomes highlight that structural upgrading interventions would be extremely beneficial for the considerable reduction of the seismic vulnerability of such kind of historical structures.

  17. Safety assessment of historical masonry churches based on pre-assigned kinematic limit analysis, FE limit and pushover analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study presents some results of a comprehensive numerical analysis on three masonry churches damaged by the recent Emilia-Romagna (Italy) seismic events occurred in May 2012. The numerical study comprises: (a) pushover analyses conducted with a commercial code, standard nonlinear material models and two different horizontal load distributions; (b) FE kinematic limit analyses performed using a non-commercial software based on a preliminary homogenization of the masonry materials and a subsequent limit analysis with triangular elements and interfaces; (c) kinematic limit analyses conducted in agreement with the Italian code and based on the a-priori assumption of preassigned failure mechanisms, where the masonry material is considered unable to withstand tensile stresses. All models are capable of giving information on the active failure mechanism and the base shear at failure, which, if properly made non-dimensional with the weight of the structure, gives also an indication of the horizontal peak ground acceleration causing the collapse of the church. The results obtained from all three models indicate that the collapse is usually due to the activation of partial mechanisms (apse, façade, lateral walls, etc.). Moreover the horizontal peak ground acceleration associated to the collapse is largely lower than that required in that seismic zone by the Italian code for ordinary buildings. These outcomes highlight that structural upgrading interventions would be extremely beneficial for the considerable reduction of the seismic vulnerability of such kind of historical structures

  18. Assessment of South Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation in CMIP5-Coupled Climate Models During the Historical Period (1850-2005)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasanna, Venkatraman

    2016-04-01

    This paper evaluates the performance of 29 state-of-art CMIP5-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) in their representation of regional characteristics of monsoon simulation over South Asia. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown some reasonable skill in simulating the mean monsoon and precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed precipitation and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and surface flux bias with respect to the observations from the historical run for the period nominally from 1850 to 2005 are discussed in detail. Our results show that the coupled model simulations over South Asia exhibit large uncertainties from one model to the other. The analysis clearly brings out the presence of large systematic biases in coupled simulation of boreal summer precipitation, evaporation, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean, often exceeding 50 % of the climatological values. Many of the biases are common to many models. Overall, the coupled models need further improvement in realistically portraying boreal summer monsoon over the South Asian monsoon region.

  19. Historical assessment of uranium release by the ore treatment unit - at Caldas, Minas Gerais, Brazil from 1999 to 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pereira, W.S.; Carmo, R.F.; Py Junior, D.A., E-mail: pereiraws@gmail.com [Industrias Nucleares do Brasil (INB), Pocos de Caldas, MG (Brazil). Unidade de Tratamento de Minerio. Grupo Multidisciplinar de Radioprotecao; Kelecom, A., E-mail: akelecom@id.uff.br [Universidade Federal Fluminense (LARARA-PLS/GETA/UFF), Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Laboratorio de Radiobiologia e Radiometria Pedro Lopes dos Santos. Grupo de Estudos em Temas Ambientais; Pereira, J.R.S., E-mail: pereirarsj@gmail.com [Universidade Federal de Alfenas, Pocos de Caldas, MG (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    The Ore Treatment Unit (OTU) is located at the source of three rivers: Ribeirao das Antas, Ribeirao do Soberbo and Corrego da Consulta. Each interface of installation with the environment, at the tree rivers, has been monitored for the release of radionuclides. At Ribeirao das Antas a weekly sample collection was made at point 014. At Ribeirao Soberbo there was a weekly sample collection at point 025, and at Corrego da Consulta a monthly collection was carried out at point 076. This work analyses the average annual releases of uranium from the historical series started in 1999 and ended in 2011. Points 014 and 025 showed average release of 0.12 Bq L{sup -1}. Point 076 showed somewhat higher average release, 1.27 Bq L{sup -1}. An Analysis Of Variance test (ANOVA) has been carried out to verify the existence of different means between these collecting points. The averages were considered statistically different. As a complementary analysis, the Student's t test was performed between the averages at considered points. Between points 014 and 025, the averages were considered identical. Between points 014 and 076, the average release at point 076 was considered higher than that at point 014. The same behavior was observed between points 025 and 076. The releases at point 076 were considered higher than those at point 025. Thus it can be concluded that releases at points 014 and 025 are identical and both are lower than releases at point 076. (author)

  20. A new international environmental order? An assessment of the impact of the global warming epistemic community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global warming is a problem which ignores national boundaries, making international cooperation essential. The role of epistemic communities, or those composed of professionals who share a commitment to a common causal model and a set of political values, in affecting the international response to the global warming problem is examined. It is claimed that the epistemic global warming community can affect the policy process, both domestically and internationally, and facilitate cooperation in an era of ecological interdependence. This claim is explored and eventually supported through the examination of two case studies: the responses of Canada and Britain to the issue of global warming between 1988 and November 1990. The case studies are supplemented with a more general discussion of the issues surrounding the international politics of global warming through the same period. Through these studies, it is found that a global warming community can be identified and that its efforts have played a significant role in framing the global warming issue. 121 refs

  1. Mapping Priorities to Focus Cropland Mapping Activities: Fitness Assessment of Existing Global, Regional and National Cropland Maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Waldner

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Timely and accurate information on the global cropland extent is critical for applications in the fields of food security, agricultural monitoring, water management, land-use change modeling and Earth system modeling. On the one hand, it gives detailed location information on where to analyze satellite image time series to assess crop condition. On the other hand, it isolates the agriculture component to focus food security monitoring on agriculture and to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural lands. The cropland class is often poorly captured in global land cover products due to its dynamic nature and the large variety of agro-systems. The overall objective was to evaluate the current availability of cropland datasets in order to propose a strategic planning and effort distribution for future cropland mapping activities and, therefore, to maximize their impact. Following a very comprehensive identification and collection of national to global land cover maps, a multi-criteria analysis was designed at the country level to identify the priority areas for cropland mapping. As a result, the analysis highlighted priority regions, such as Western Africa, Ethiopia, Madagascar and Southeast Asia, for the remote sensing community to focus its efforts. A Unified Cropland Layer at 250 m for the year 2014 was produced combining the fittest products. It was assessed using global validation datasets and yields an overall accuracy ranging from 82%–94%. Masking cropland areas with a global forest map reduced the commission errors from 46% down to 26%. Compared to the GLC-Share and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis-International Food Policy Research Institute (IIASA-IFPRI cropland maps, significant spatial disagreements were found, which might be attributed to discrepancies in the cropland definition. This advocates for a shared definition of cropland, as well as global validation datasets relevant for the

  2. Phenology as an Integrative Science for Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weltzin, J.; Losleben, M. V.

    2007-12-01

    Phenology is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate. Examples include the timing of leafing and flowering, agricultural crop stages, insect emergence, and animal migration. All of these events are sensitive measures of climatic variation and change, are relatively simple to record and understand, and are vital to both the scientific and public interest. Integration of spatially-extensive phenological data and models with both short and long-term climatic forecasts offer a powerful agent for human adaptation to ongoing and future climate change. However, a new data resource of national scale is needed to capture the valuable information potential of phenological responses to climate change; to study its nature, pace and the effects of ecosystem function; and to understand connectivity and synchrony among species. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is being designed and organized to engage federal agencies, environmental networks and field stations, educational institutions, and mass participation by citizen scientists to create this data resource, and develop phenology research potential. This presentation illustrates the variety of source, scale, and use of phenology in assessing current and future global climate change impacts.

  3. Global warming potential of the sulfur-iodine process using life cycle assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A life cycle assessment (LCA) of one proposed method of hydrogen production - thermochemical water-splitting using the sulfur-iodine cycle couple with a very high-temperature nuclear reactor - is presented in this paper. Thermochemical water-splitting theoretically offers a higher overall efficiency than high-temperature electrolysis of water because heat from the nuclear reactor is provided directly to the hydrogen generation process, instead of using the intermediate step of generating electricity. The primary heat source for the S-I cycle is an advanced nuclear reactor operating at temperatures corresponding to those required by the sulfur-iodine process. This LCA examines the environmental impact of the combined advanced nuclear and hydrogen generation plants and focuses on quantifying the emissions of carbon dioxide per kilogram of hydrogen produced. The results are presented in terms of global warming potential (GWP). The GWP of the system is 2500 g carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2-eq) per kilogram of hydrogen produced. The GWP of this process is approximately one-sixth of that for hydrogen production by steam reforming of natural gas, and is comparable to producing hydrogen from wind- or hydro-electric conventional electrolysis. (author)

  4. Global model assessments of the effects of flowing lithium curtain on reactor core plasma performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A global model assessments of the effects of a flowing lithium curtain on plasma has been performed, which is utilized as the first wall for the engineering outline design of the Fusion Experimental Breeder (FEB-E). The relationships between the surface temperature of a liquid lithium curtain and the mean effective plasma charge, fuel dilution and the reduction factor of produced fusion power have been obtained. Studies indicate that under normal operation circumstances, the evaporation of liquid lithium does not affect the mean effective plasma charge seriously, but the effects on the fuel dilution and fusion power is more sensitive. The authors have investigated the relationships between the flow velocity of the liquid lithium curtain and the rise of surface temperature based on the operation scenario II of FEB-E design with reversed shear configuration and higher power density. Results show even when the flow velocity of liquid lithium curtain is as low as 0.5 m/s, the effects of evaporation from the curtain on plasma are negligible. (authors)

  5. The role of renewable energy in global warming mitigation - A critique of trusted assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two recent Congressionally-commissioned studies - one by the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) and the other by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - support the position that action should be taken now to reduce emissions causing global warming, and find that significant reductions can be achieved at relatively low cost. The authors accept these general conclusions, but take issue with the mix of energy options judged to be the most promising for reacting reduction targets. Specifically, they challenge the impression given in both reports that renewable energy will be, at best, an insignificant element in achieving greenhouse gas reductions. The OTA and NAS studies are important because it is generally assumed that they are based on rigorous, objective analysis and do not contain significant biases. Upon inspection of the recent greenhouse mitigation studies, however, several shortcomings are apparent, the most egregious of which was a general failure to re-evaluate renewables based on recent evidence. Over the last decade, advances in technology have reduced the costs of solar and wind electricity by 60-75% and increased reliability to the point where these resources, along with geothermal and biomass, can now compete with conventional electric plants in some markets, especially those in which environmental benefits are considered. These resources must be accurately valued to optimize carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction strategies. This article identifies the various ways in which these reports have failed in this task

  6. A global assessment of the social and conservation outcomes of protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldekop, J A; Holmes, G; Harris, W E; Evans, K L

    2016-02-01

    Protected areas (PAs) are a key strategy for protecting biological resources, but they vary considerably in their effectiveness and are frequently reported as having negative impacts on local people. This has contributed to a divisive and unresolved debate concerning the compatibility of environmental and socioeconomic development goals. Elucidating the relationship between positive and negative social impacts and conservation outcomes of PAs is key for the development of more effective and socially just conservation. We conducted a global meta-analysis on 165 PAs using data from 171 published studies. We assessed how PAs affect the well-being of local people, the factors associated with these impacts, and crucially the relationship between PAs' conservation and socioeconomic outcomes. Protected areas associated with positive socioeconomic outcomes were more likely to report positive conservation outcomes. Positive conservation and socioeconomic outcomes were more likely to occur when PAs adopted comanagement regimes, empowered local people, reduced economic inequalities, and maintained cultural and livelihood benefits. Whereas the strictest regimes of PA management attempted to exclude anthropogenic influences to achieve biological conservation objectives, PAs that explicitly integrated local people as stakeholders tended to be more effective at achieving joint biological conservation and socioeconomic development outcomes. Strict protection may be needed in some circumstances, yet our results demonstrate that conservation and development objectives can be synergistic and highlight management strategies that increase the probability of maximizing both conservation performance and development outcomes of PAs. PMID:26096222

  7. Assessment the safety performance of nuclear power plants using Global Safety Index (GSI)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abouelnaga, Ayah E., E-mail: ayahabouelnaga@hotmail.co [Alexandria University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Nuclear and Radiological Engineering, Alexandria, 21544 (Egypt); Metwally, Abdelmohsen; Aly, Naguib; Nagy, Mohammad; Agamy, Saeed [Alexandria University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Nuclear and Radiological Engineering, Alexandria, 21544 (Egypt)

    2010-10-15

    The safety performance of the nuclear power plant is a very important factor enhancing the nuclear energy option. It is vague to evaluate the nuclear power plant performance but it can be measured through measuring the safety performance of the plant. In this work, the safety of nuclear power plants is assessed by developing a 'Global Safety Index' (GSI). The GSI is developed by introducing three indicators: probability of accident occurrence, performance of safety system in case of an accident occurrence (during an accident), and the consequences of the accident. The GSI is developed by tracking the performance of the safety system during a design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA). This is done by using the PCTran simulation code in simulation a PWR LOCA and introducing four indicators: the sensation time, the response time, and the recovery time together with Core Damage Frequency (CDF). Then Fuzzy Inference System is used for obtaining the GSI. The GSI is also evaluated for the advanced types for nuclear power plants, such as AP1000, and a comparison is made between the GSI evaluated for both conventional and advanced types.

  8. Global Clustering Quality Coefficient Assessing the Efficiency of PCA Class Assignment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela Praisler

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An essential factor influencing the efficiency of the predictive models built with principal component analysis (PCA is the quality of the data clustering revealed by the score plots. The sensitivity and selectivity of the class assignment are strongly influenced by the relative position of the clusters and by their dispersion. We are proposing a set of indicators inspired from analytical geometry that may be used for an objective quantitative assessment of the data clustering quality as well as a global clustering quality coefficient (GCQC that is a measure of the overall predictive power of the PCA models. The use of these indicators for evaluating the efficiency of the PCA class assignment is illustrated by a comparative study performed for the identification of the preprocessing function that is generating the most efficient PCA system screening for amphetamines based on their GC-FTIR spectra. The GCQC ranking of the tested feature weights is explained based on estimated density distributions and validated by using quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA.

  9. The economic costs of natural disasters globally from 1900-2015: historical and normalised floods, storms, earthquakes, volcanoes, bushfires, drought and other disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schaefer, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    For the first time, a breakdown of natural disaster losses from 1900-2015 based on over 30,000 event economic losses globally is given based on increased analysis within the CATDAT Damaging Natural Disaster databases. Using country-CPI and GDP deflator adjustments, over 7 trillion (2015-adjusted) in losses have occurred; over 40% due to flood/rainfall, 26% due to earthquake, 19% due to storm effects, 12% due to drought, 2% due to wildfire and under 1% due to volcano. Using construction cost indices, higher percentages of flood losses are seen. Depending on how the adjustment of dollars are made to 2015 terms (CPI vs. construction cost indices), between 6.5 and 14.0 trillion USD (2015-adjusted) of natural disaster losses have been seen from 1900-2015 globally. Significant reductions in economic losses have been seen in China and Japan from 1950 onwards. An AAL of around 200 billion in the last 16 years has been seen equating to around 0.25% of Global GDP or around 0.1% of Net Capital Stock per year. Normalised losses have also been calculated to examine the trends in vulnerability through time for economic losses. The normalisation methodology globally using the exposure databases within CATDAT that were undertaken previously in papers for the earthquake and volcano databases, are used for this study. The original event year losses are adjusted directly by capital stock change, very high losses are observed with respect to floods over time (however with improved flood control structures). This shows clear trends in the improvement of building stock towards natural disasters and a decreasing trend in most perils for most countries.

  10. Global warming implications of facade parameters: A life cycle assessment of residential buildings in Bahrain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On a global scale, the Gulf Corporation Council Countries (GCCC), including Bahrain, are amongst the top countries in terms of carbon dioxide emissions per capita. Building authority in Bahrain has set a target of 40% reduction of electricity consumption and associated CO2 emissions to be achieved by using facade parameters. This work evaluates how the life cycle CO2 emissions of buildings are affected by facade parameters. The main focus is placed on direct and indirect CO2 emissions from three contributors, namely, chemical reactions during production processes (Pco2), embodied energy (Eco2) and operational energy (OPco2). By means of the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, it has been possible to show that the greatest environmental impact occurs during the operational phase (80–90%). However, embodied CO2 emissions are an important factor that needs to be brought into the systems used for appraisal of projects, and hence into the design decisions made in developing projects. The assessment shows that masonry blocks are responsible for 70–90% of the total CO2 emissions of facade construction, mainly due to their physical characteristics. The highest Pco2 emissions factors are those of window elements, particularly aluminium frames. However, their contribution of CO2 emissions depends largely on the number and size of windows. Each square metre of glazing is able to increase the total CO2 emissions by almost 30% when compared with the same areas of opaque walls. The use of autoclaved aerated concrete (AAC) walls reduces the total life cycle CO2 emissions by almost 5.2% when compared with ordinary walls, while the use of thermal insulation with concrete wall reduces CO2 emissions by 1.2%. The outcome of this work offers to the building industry a reliable indicator of the environmental impact of residential facade parameters. - Highlights: ► Life cycle carbon assessment of façade parameters. ► Greatest environmental impact occurs during the

  11. Assessment of the consistency among global microwave land surface emissivity products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Norouzi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this work is to inter-compare a number of global land surface emissivity products over various land-cover conditions to assess their consistency. Ultimately, the discrepancies between the studied emissivity products will help interpreting the divergences among numerical weather prediction models in which land emissivity is a key surface boundary parameter. The intercompared retrieved land emissivity products were generated over five-year period (2003–2007 using observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I, The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI and Windsat. First, all products were reprocessed in the same projection and spatial resolution as they were generated from sensors with various configurations. Then, the mean value and standard deviations of monthly emissivity values were calculated for each product to assess the spatial distribution of the consistencies/inconsistencies among the products across the globe. The emissivity values from four products were also compared to soil moisture estimates and satellite-based vegetation index to assess their sensitivities to the changes in land surface conditions. Results show that systematic differences among products exist and variation of emissivities at each product has similar frequency dependency at any land cover type. Monthly means of emissivity values from AMSR-E in the vertical and horizontal polarizations seem to be systematically lower across various land cover condition which may be attributed to the 1.30 a.m./p.m. overpass time of the sensor and possibly a residual skin temperature effect in the product. The standard deviation of the analysed products was the lowest (less than 0.01 in rain forest regions for all products and the highest in northern latitudes, above 0.04 for AMSR-E and SSM/I and around 0.03 for WindSat. Despite differences in absolute

  12. Porphyry copper assessment of East and Southeast Asia: Philippines, Taiwan (Republic of China), Republic of Korea (South Korea), and Japan: Chapter P in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Demarr, Michael W.; Dicken, Connie L.; Ludington, Stephen; Robinson, Gilpin R., Jr.; Zientek, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with member countries of the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) on an assessment of the porphyry copper resources of East and Southeast Asia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The assessment covers the Philippines in Southeast Asia, and the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Taiwan (Province of China), and Japan in East Asia. The Philippines host world class porphyry copper deposits, such as the Tampakan and Atlas deposits. No porphyry copper deposits have been discovered in the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Taiwan (Province of China), or Japan.

  13. Used planet: a global history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Erle C; Kaplan, Jed O; Fuller, Dorian Q; Vavrus, Steve; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Verburg, Peter H

    2013-05-14

    Human use of land has transformed ecosystem pattern and process across most of the terrestrial biosphere, a global change often described as historically recent and potentially catastrophic for both humanity and the biosphere. Interdisciplinary paleoecological, archaeological, and historical studies challenge this view, indicating that land use has been extensive and sustained for millennia in some regions and that recent trends may represent as much a recovery as an acceleration. Here we synthesize recent scientific evidence and theory on the emergence, history, and future of land use as a process transforming the Earth System and use this to explain why relatively small human populations likely caused widespread and profound ecological changes more than 3,000 y ago, whereas the largest and wealthiest human populations in history are using less arable land per person every decade. Contrasting two spatially explicit global reconstructions of land-use history shows that reconstructions incorporating adaptive changes in land-use systems over time, including land-use intensification, offer a more spatially detailed and plausible assessment of our planet's history, with a biosphere and perhaps even climate long ago affected by humans. Although land-use processes are now shifting rapidly from historical patterns in both type and scale, integrative global land-use models that incorporate dynamic adaptations in human-environment relationships help to advance our understanding of both past and future land-use changes, including their sustainability and potential global effects. PMID:23630271

  14. Irrigation as an historical climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2015-03-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  15. Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2014-01-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  16. Assessing Low Frequency Climate Signals in Global Circulation Models using an Integrated Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niswonger, R. G.; Huntington, J. L.

    2010-12-01

    Climate signals with periodicities of approximately one decade are pervasive in long-term streamflow records for streams in the western United States that receive significant baseflow. The driver of these signals is unknown but hypotheses have been presented, such as variations in solar input to the Earth, or harmonics of internal (i.e., processes in the ocean and troposphere) forcings like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climate signals of about 1 decade are important for several reasons, including their relation to climate extremes (i.e., droughts and floods), and because the drivers of these climate signals are clearly important for projecting future climate conditions. Furthermore, identifying the drivers of these climate signals is important for separating the relative impacts of human production of greenhouse gases on global warming verses external drivers of climate change, such as sunspot cycles. Studies using Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that do not incorporate solar forcings associated with sun spots have identified oscillations of about a decade long in certain model output. However, these oscillations can be difficult to identify in simulated precipitation data due to high frequency variations (less than 1 year) that obscure low frequency (decade) signals. We have found that simulations using an integrated hydrologic model (IHM) called GSFLOW reproduce decade-long oscillations in streamflow when driven by measured precipitation records, and that these oscillations are also present in simulated streamflow when driven by temperature and precipitation data projected by GCMs. Because the IHM acts as a low-pass filter that reveals low frequency signals (i.e. decadal oscillations), they can be used to assess GCMs in terms of their ability to reproduce important low-frequency climate oscillations. We will present results from GSFLOW applied to three basins in the eastern Sierra Nevada driven by 100 years of

  17. THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE – AN ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sterian Maria Gabriela

    2013-01-01

    The challenge of international organizations and their role in the global economy remains in the midst of global economic governance approach, although it seemed utopian at first and regarded as too ambitious in redefining the international system. This paper aims to underline and reassess the role of international organizations in the new paradigm of global economic governance. The approach is a more theoretical one, with emphasis on results and future research. The key results are related t...

  18. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    OpenAIRE

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a SSP-RCP modelling framework to simulate conditional probabilistic futures of global cropland areas. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS using climate and socio-economic data from the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) and the SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways). For the assumptions made in this study, the simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± one standard devi...

  19. A model based investigation of the relative importance of CO2-fertilization, climate warming, nitrogen deposition and land use change on the global terrestrial carbon uptake in the historical period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devaraju, N.; Bala, G.; Caldeira, K.; Nemani, R.

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, using the fully coupled NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0.4), we investigate the relative importance of CO2-fertilization, climate warming, anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover change (LULCC) for terrestrial carbon uptake during the historical period (1850-2005). In our simulations, between the beginning and end of this period, we find an increase in global net primary productivity (NPP) on land of about 4 PgCyr-1 (8.2 %) with a contribution of 2.3 PgCyr-1 from CO2-fertilization and 2.0 PgCyr-1 from nitrogen deposition. Climate warming also causes NPP to increase by 0.35 PgCyr-1 but LULCC causes a decline of 0.7 PgCyr-1. These results indicate that the recent increase in vegetation productivity is most likely driven by CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition. Further, we find that this configuration of CESM projects that the global terrestrial ecosystem has been a net source of carbon during 1850-2005 (release of 45.1 ± 2.4 PgC), largely driven by historical LULCC related CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere. During the recent three decades (early 1970s to early 2000s), however, our model simulations project that the terrestrial ecosystem acts as a sink, taking up about 10 PgC mainly due to CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition. Our results are in good qualitative agreement with recent studies that indicate an increase in vegetation production and water use efficiency in the satellite era and that the terrestrial ecosystem has been a net sink for carbon in recent decades.

  20. Managing Identifiers for Elements of Provenance of the Third National Climate Assessment in the Global Change Information System (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, C.; Aulenbach, S.; Duggan, B.; Goldstein, J.

    2013-12-01

    A Federal Advisory Committee (The "National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee" or NCADAC) has overseen the development of a draft climate report that after extensive review will be considered by the Federal Government in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA). This comprehensive report (1) Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; (2) Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and (3) Analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The U.S. Global Change Program (USGCRP), composed of the 13 federal agencies most concerned with global change, is building a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will ultimately organize access to all of the research, data, and information about global change from across the system. A prototype of the system has been constructed that captures and presents all of the elements of provenance of the NCA through a coherent data model and friendly front end web site. This work will focus on the globally unique and persistent identifiers used to reference and organize those items. These include externally referenced items, such as DOIs used by scientific journal publishers for research articles or by agencies as dataset identifiers, as well as our own internal approach to identifiers, our overall data model and experiences managing persistent identifiers within the GCIS.