WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing historical global

  1. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  2. Assessing historical global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefohn, A.S. [A.S.L. and Associates, Helena, MT (United States); Husar, J.D.; Husar, R.B. [Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States). Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis; Brimblecombe, P. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    1996-07-19

    Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from energy-producing and metal production activities have become an important factor in better understanding the relationship between humans and the environment. Concerns about (1) acid rain effects on the environment and (2) anthropogenic aerosols affecting possible global change have prompted interest in the transformation and fate of sulfur in the environment. One step in assessing the importance of sulfur emissions is the development of a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time. The objective of this research effort was to create a homogeneous database for historical sulfur emission estimates for the world. The time from 1850--1990 was selected to include the period of industrialization form the time the main production of fuels and minerals began until the most recent year for which complete production data exist. This research effort attempts to correct some of the deficiencies associated with previous global sulfur emission estimates by (1) identifying those production activities that resulted in sulfur emissions by country and (2) calculating historical emission trends by country across years. An important component of this study was the comparison of the sulfur emission results with those of previous studies.

  3. Accuracy assessment of global historical cropland datasets based on regional reconstructed historical data——A case study in Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Historical cropland datasets are fundamental for quantifying the effects of human land use activities on climatic change and the carbon cycle. Two representative global land-use datasets, the Global Land Use Database (termed SAGE dataset) and the Historical Database of the Global Environment (termed HYDE dataset) have been established and used widely. Despite improvement of data quality and methodologies for extracting historical land use information, certain dataset limitations exist that need to be quantified and communicated to users so that they can make informed decisions on whether and how these land-use products should be used. The Cropland data of Northeast China (CNEC) is based on calibrated historical data and a multi-sourced data conversion model, and reconstructs cropland cover change in Northeast China over the last 300 years. Us- ing the CNEC as a reference, we evaluated the accuracy of cropland cover for SAGE and HYDE in Northeast China at spatial scales ranging from the entire Northeast China to provinces and even individual raster grid cells. Neither SAGE nor HYDE reflects real historical land reclamation. Cropland areas in SAGE are overestimated by 20.98 times in 1700 to 1.6 times in 1990. Although HYDE is better, there are significant disagreements in cropland area and distribution between HYDE and CNEC, especially in the 18th and 19th centuries. The proportion of total grid cells whose relative error was greater than 100% was 63.55% in 1700 and 53.27% in 1780. Global cropland dataset errors over Northeast China originate mainly from both the reverse calculation method for historical cropland data based on modern spatial patterns, and modern land-use outputs from satellite data.

  4. Development of a Global Historic Monthly Mean Precipitation Dataset

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨溯; 徐文慧; 许艳; 李庆祥

    2016-01-01

    Global historic precipitation dataset is the base for climate and water cycle research. There have been several global historic land surface precipitation datasets developed by international data centers such as the US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), European Climate Assessment & Dataset project team, Met Office, etc., but so far there are no such datasets developed by any research institute in China. In addition, each dataset has its own focus of study region, and the existing global precipitation datasets only contain sparse observational stations over China, which may result in uncertainties in East Asian precipitation studies. In order to take into account comprehensive historic information, users might need to employ two or more datasets. However, the non-uniform data formats, data units, station IDs, and so on add extra difficulties for users to exploit these datasets. For this reason, a complete historic precipitation dataset that takes advantages of various datasets has been developed and produced in the National Meteorological Information Center of China. Precipitation observations from 12 sources are aggregated, and the data formats, data units, and station IDs are unified. Duplicated stations with the same ID are identified, with duplicated observations removed. Consistency test, correlation coefficient test, significance t-test at the 95% confidence level, and significance F-test at the 95% confidence level are conducted first to ensure the data reliability. Only those datasets that satisfy all the above four criteria are integrated to produce the China Meteorological Administration global precipitation (CGP) historic precipitation dataset version 1.0. It contains observations at 31 thousand stations with 1.87 × 107 data records, among which 4152 time series of precipitation are longer than 100 yr. This dataset plays a critical role in climate research due to its advantages in large data volume and high density of station network, compared to

  5. Development of a global historic monthly mean precipitation dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Su; Xu, Wenhui; Xu, Yan; Li, Qingxiang

    2016-04-01

    Global historic precipitation dataset is the base for climate and water cycle research. There have been several global historic land surface precipitation datasets developed by international data centers such as the US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), European Climate Assessment & Dataset project team, Met Office, etc., but so far there are no such datasets developed by any research institute in China. In addition, each dataset has its own focus of study region, and the existing global precipitation datasets only contain sparse observational stations over China, which may result in uncertainties in East Asian precipitation studies. In order to take into account comprehensive historic information, users might need to employ two or more datasets. However, the non-uniform data formats, data units, station IDs, and so on add extra difficulties for users to exploit these datasets. For this reason, a complete historic precipitation dataset that takes advantages of various datasets has been developed and produced in the National Meteorological Information Center of China. Precipitation observations from 12 sources are aggregated, and the data formats, data units, and station IDs are unified. Duplicated stations with the same ID are identified, with duplicated observations removed. Consistency test, correlation coefficient test, significance t-test at the 95% confidence level, and significance F-test at the 95% confidence level are conducted first to ensure the data reliability. Only those datasets that satisfy all the above four criteria are integrated to produce the China Meteorological Administration global precipitation (CGP) historic precipitation dataset version 1.0. It contains observations at 31 thousand stations with 1.87 × 107 data records, among which 4152 time series of precipitation are longer than 100 yr. This dataset plays a critical role in climate research due to its advantages in large data volume and high density of station network, compared to

  6. A Historical Perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick Højrup; Christensen, Per

    2013-01-01

    The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical...... development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP100), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies...

  7. Historical patterns and drivers of global crop water demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, D.; Lobell, D. B.; Sheffield, J.

    2015-12-01

    With climate change expected to subject staple crops in major growing regions to increased heat exposure, a critical question for agriculture and global food security is the degree to which crop water demand is also likely to change. Recent work has explored the relationship between extreme temperatures and crop water demand, finding that vapor pressure deficit (VPD), through its dependence on both temperature and humidity, provides a very good meteorological predictor of water stress. However, assessing crop water demand solely through atmospheric conditions ignores the roles of radiation and transpiration efficiency, which are increased through elevated CO2. We provide a 60-year global assessment of crop water demand in the world's major growing areas, comparing trends and drivers across key growing regions. We find that an atmospheric-based demand measure can differ significantly from that of a crop-specific sink-based approach that incorporates radiation and CO2 effects, sometimes enough to reverse the sign of historical trends. We also find that these changes differ significantly by region, and that multi-decadal trends can mask large decadal swings. To our knowledge, our work is the first to use global meteorological datasets in a global analysis of crop water demand, and should serve as a valuable reference for future work examining the interaction of hydrological, temperature, and CO2 changes on crop yields.

  8. Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly (GHCN-M), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Since the early 1990s the Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly (GHCN-M) dataset has been an internationally recognized source of data for the study of...

  9. Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset integrates daily climate observations from approximately 30 different data sources. Version 3...

  10. Debating Globalization in Social Studies Education: Approaching Globalization Historically and Discursively

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agbaria, Ayman K.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore the dominant positions in the debates on globalization in American social studies education. Specifically, the paper illustrates that, first, globalization is conceived of as more of an unprecedented new age and less of a historical development. Second, it is conceived of as more of a natural process and…

  11. Global imprint of historical connectivity on freshwater fish biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Murilo S; Oberdorff, Thierry; Hugueny, Bernard; Leprieur, Fabien; Jézéquel, Céline; Cornu, Jean-François; Brosse, Sébastien; Grenouillet, Gael; Tedesco, Pablo A

    2014-09-01

    The relative importance of contemporary and historical processes is central for understanding biodiversity patterns. While several studies show that past conditions can partly explain the current biodiversity patterns, the role of history remains elusive. We reconstructed palaeo-drainage basins under lower sea level conditions (Last Glacial Maximum) to test whether the historical connectivity between basins left an imprint on the global patterns of freshwater fish biodiversity. After controlling for contemporary and past environmental conditions, we found that palaeo-connected basins displayed greater species richness but lower levels of endemism and beta diversity than did palaeo-disconnected basins. Palaeo-connected basins exhibited shallower distance decay of compositional similarity, suggesting that palaeo-river connections favoured the exchange of fish species. Finally, we found that a longer period of palaeo-connection resulted in lower levels of beta diversity. These findings reveal the first unambiguous results of the role played by history in explaining the global contemporary patterns of biodiversity.

  12. Prolegomena of Human Rights. Historical Roots and Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Alina Dumitrache-Ionescu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper Prolegomena of Human Rights. Historical Roots and Globalization analyses the complexity of the history of human rights which revolve around an incessant struggle for the awareness of the value of the human being. It is the history which defends the man, the human being, regarded individually or collectively, who was subjected in the course of time to some atrocities and abuses, confronting itself with exploitation, discrimination, oppression, slavery, torture and even extermination. Moreover, the historical evolution of human rights knows halting places in which the concepts of human rights are accompanied by ambiguity, by different meanings for different people and vary in accordance with the context. By way of resemblance, the problem of human rights in the context of globalization which transforms human rights into rights of the global citizen, rights which acquire new dimensions and significances imposed by the economic, politic and social changes specific of globalization is approached in this paper. The global vision of the new human rights involves both the opportunity to have a say when they are infringed for example, when they are subjected to torture or terror, and where human rights abuses are carried out by the people, for example, trafficking in human beings. (Ritzer, & Dean, 2015, p. 115

  13. Drought - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackner, S.; Barnwal, P.; von der Goltz, J.

    2013-12-01

    We investigate the lasting effects of early childhood exposure to drought on economic and health outcomes in a large multi-country dataset. By pooling all Demographic and Health Survey rounds for which household geocodes are available, we obtain an individual-level dataset covering 47 developing countries. Among other impact measures, we collect infant and child mortality data from 3.3m live births and data on stunting and wasting for 1.2m individuals, along with data on education, employment, wealth, marriage and childbearing later in life for similarly large numbers of respondents. Birth years vary from 1893 to 2012. We seek to improve upon existing work on the socio-economic impact of drought in a number of ways. First, we introduce from the hydrological literature a drought measure, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), that has been shown to closely proxy the Palmer drought index, but has far less demanding data requirements, and can be obtained globally and for long time periods. We estimate the SPI for 110 years on a global 0.5° grid, which allows us to assign drought histories to the geocoded individual data. Additionally, we leverage our large sample size to explicitly investigate both how drought impacts have changed over time as adaptation occurred at a varying pace in different locations, and the role of the regional extent of drought in determining impacts.

  14. Science and technology from global and historical perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Karagözoğlu, Bahattin

    2017-01-01

    This book provides science and technology ethos to a literate person. It starts with a rather detailed treatment of basic concepts in human values, educational status and domains of education, development of science and technology and their contributions to the welfare of society. It describes ways and means of scientific progresses and technological advancements with their historical perspectives including scientific viewpoints of contributing scientists and technologists. The technical, social, and cultural dimensions are surveyed in relation to acquisition and application of science, and advantages and hindrances of technological developments. Science and Technology is currently taught as a college course in many universities with the intention to introduce topics from a global historical perspective so that the reader shall stretch his/her vision by mapping the past to the future. The book can also serve as a primary reference for such courses.

  15. A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick H; Christensen, Per

    2013-09-01

    The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP(100)), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) to net saving of 670 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of MSWM.

  16. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-09-01

    In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

  17. Perspective has a strong effect on the calculation of historical contributions to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Berntsen, Terje; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie; Allen, Myles; Kallbekken, Steffen

    2017-02-01

    The politically contentious issue of calculating countries’ contributions to climate change is strongly dependent on methodological choices. Different principles can be applied for distributing efforts for reducing human-induced global warming. According to the ‘Brazilian Proposal’, industrialized countries would reduce emissions proportional to their historical contributions to warming. This proposal was based on the assumption that the political process would lead to a global top-down agreement. The Paris Agreement changed the role of historical responsibilities. Whereas the agreement refers to equity principles, differentiation of mitigation efforts is delegated to each country, as countries will submit new national contributions every five years without any international negotiation. It is likely that considerations of historical contributions and distributive fairness will continue to play a key role, but increasingly so in a national setting. Contributions to warming can be used as a background for negotiations to inform and justify positions, and may also be useful for countries’ own assessment of what constitutes reasonable and fair contributions to limiting warming. Despite the fact that the decision from COP21 explicitly rules out compensation in the context of loss and damage, it is likely that considerations of historical responsibility will also play a role in future discussions. However, methodological choices have substantial impacts on calculated contributions to warming, including rank-ordering of contributions, and thus support the view that there is no single correct answer to the question of how much each country has contributed. There are fundamental value-related and ethical questions that cannot be answered through a single set of calculated contributions. Thus, analyses of historical contributions should not present just one set of results, but rather present a spectrum of results showing how the calculated contributions vary with a

  18. Industrial Property and global competitiveness in historical perspective; Propiedad industrial y competitividad global en perspectiva historica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saiz, P.

    2011-07-01

    The ability to compete globally changes over time. The processes of technological innovation and education largely determine economic growth and international competitiveness. The development and evolution of Intellectual Property Rights in the long term have been essential for the management of R and D and of creative and innovative competence's in several countries. Thus, economic and technological history becomes an essential tool for analysts and political economists. And the historical archive of the Spanish Patents and Trademarks Office turns out to be a laboratory of the past for thinking on the future. (Author) 48 refs.

  19. Global biogeophysical interactions between historical deforestation and climate through land surface albedo and interactive ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ye

    2017-02-01

    Deforestation is expanding and accelerating into the remaining areas of undisturbed forest, and the quality of the remaining forests is declining today. Assessing the climatic impacts of deforestation can help to rectify this alarming situation. In this paper, how historical deforestation may affect global climate through interactive ocean and surface albedo is examined using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). Control and anomaly integrations are performed for 1000 years. In the anomaly case, cropland is significantly expanded since AD 1700. The response of climate in deforested areas is not uniform between the regions. In the background of a global cooling of 0.08 °C occurring with cooler surface air above 0.4 °C across 30° N to 75° N from March to September, the surface albedo increase has a global cooling effect in response to global-scale replacement of forests by cropland, especially over northern mid-high latitudes. The northern mid-latitude (30° N-60° N) suffers a prominent cooling in June, suggesting that this area is most sensitive to cropland expansion through surface albedo. Most regions show a consistent trend between the overall cooling in response to historical deforestation and its resulting cooling due to surface albedo anomaly. Furthermore, the effect of the interactive ocean on shaping the climate response to deforestation is greater than that of prescribed SSTs in most years with a maximum spread of 0.05 °C. This difference is more prominent after year 1800 than that before due to the more marked deforestation. These findings show the importance of the land cover change and the land surface albedo, stressing the necessity to analyze other biogeophysical processes of deforestation using interactive ocean.

  20. Monthly Summaries of the Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-D)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly Summaries of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)-Daily is a dataset derived from GHCN-Daily. The data are produced by computing simple averages or...

  1. NGDC/WDS Global Historical Tsunami Database, 2100 BC to present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Tsunami Database provides information on over 2,400 tsunamis from 2100 BC to the present in the the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans; and...

  2. Globalization and Religion in Historical Perspective: A Paradoxical Relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke M. Herrington

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Religion has long been a driving force in the process of globalization. This idea is not controversial or novel thinking, nor is it meant to be. However, the dominant reasoning on the subject of globalization, expressed by authors like Thomas Friedman, places economics at the center of analysis, skewing focus from the ideational factors at work in this process. By expanding the definition of globalization to accommodate ideational factors and cultural exchange, religion’s agency in the process can be enabled. Interestingly, the story of religion and globalization is in some ways the history of globalization, but it is riddled with paradoxes, including the agent-opponent paradox, the subject of this article. Religion and globalization have a co-constitutive relationship, but religious actors are both agents of globalization and principals in its backlash. While some actors might benefit from a mutually reinforcing relationship with globalization, others are marginalized in some way or another, so it is necessary to expose the links and wedges that allow for such a paradox. To that end, the concepts of globalization and religious actors must be defined, and the history of the agent-opponent paradox, from the Buddhists of the Silk Road to the Jubilee campaign of 2000, must be elucidated.

  3. Teaching the Impact of Globalization through Historical Archaeology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Marilyn C.

    Historical archaeology has evolved from an early preoccupation with famous houses and forts to a study of capitalism around the world. Archaeologists study the cultures and interrelationships of the colonizers and the colonized as they negotiated their places in an ever-expanding world system. Recent studies in South Africa, Latin America, and the…

  4. Global Transfer and Indian Management A Historical Hybridity Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Becker-Ritterspach, Florian; Raaijman, Tico

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of Indian management and to challenge more generally ahistorical and essentialist notions of indigenous management perspectives. Drawing selectively on postcolonial theory, we suggest that a historical hybridity perspective serves as

  5. Africa and the green revolution : a global historical perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, E.H.P.

    2013-01-01

    After several centuries of rising global inequality during the so-called era of the Great Divergence, our generation is witnessing a new epoch in world history, one of rapid economic convergence1. Emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil and Turkey are reconfiguring the gravity centers of the

  6. Three distinct global estimates of historical land-cover change and land-use conversions for over 200 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Prasanth MEIYAPPAN; Atul K.JAIN

    2012-01-01

    Earth's land cover has been extensively transformed over time due to both human activities and natural causes.Previous global studies have focused on developing spatial and temporal pattems of dominant human land-use activities (e.g.,cropland,pastureland,urban land,wood harvest).Process-based modeling studies adopt different strategies to estimate the changes in land cover by using these land-use data sets in combination with a potential vegetation map,and subsequently use this information for impact assessments.However,due to unaccounted changes in land cover (resulting from both indirect anthropogenic and natural causes),heterogeneity in land-use/cover (LUC) conversions among grid cells,even for the same land use activity,and uncertainty associated with potential vegetation mapping and historical estimates of human land use result in land cover estimates that are substantially different compared to results acquired from remote sensing observations.Here,we present a method to implicitly account for the differences arising from these uncertainties in order to provide historical estimates of land cover that are consistent with satellite estimates for recent years.Due to uncertainty in historical agricultural land use,we use three widely accepted global estimates of cropland and pastureland in combination with common wood harvest and urban land data sets to generate three distinct estimates of historical land-cover change and underlying LUC conversions.Hence,these distinct historical reconstructions offer a wide range of plausible regional estimates of uncertainty and the extent to which different ecosystems have undergone changes.The annual land cover maps and LUC conversion maps are reported at 0.5°×0.5° resolution and describe the area of 28 landcover types and respective underlying land-use transitions.The reconstructed data sets are relevant for studies addressing the impact of land-cover change on biogeophysics,biogeochemistry,water cycle,and global climate.

  7. A historical review on the roles of science and politics in addressing global environmental issues

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peter USHER; Qian YE

    2009-01-01

    Based on a historical review of the so-called Ozone crisis in the late 1970s and global climate changes since the 1980s, this paper examines the role of sciences and policies in the international community in dealing with the global environmental issues. Lessons show that a multi-discipline, multi-organizational and multi-national UN agency which remains relevant, assisting rather than guiding the process of climate negotiations is important.

  8. CERN in a historic Global Web-cast

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    On Thursday 1st December, CERN will be involved in 'Beyond Einstein', a 12-hour live world-wide web-cast, which will feature participants from across the globe, marking the World Year of Physics. CERN goes global: the 12-hour web-cast will unite different world timezones by means of the web. Viewers on the web will be able to tune into one of the most extensive videoconference in the world to learn more about Einstein's physics and how it continues to influence cutting-edge research worldwide. The event kicks off at midday (CET) with a live presentation at CERN's Globe of Science and Innovation, featuring a symbolic link-up with the New Library of Alexandria in Egypt. There will then be transmissions from a host of research institutions, such as Imperial College, Fermilab and SLAC. There will also be live connections with Jerusalem, Taipei, San Francisco, Tasmania and even Antarctica. 'Connections will be established among virtually all the time zones on Earth, a perfect way to celebrate Einstein, who rev...

  9. The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorpe, Livia; Andrews, Timothy

    2014-05-01

    Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day-1, while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day-1) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked.

  10. Assessing the decennial, reassessing the global

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manners, Ian James

    2013-01-01

    This concluding article assesses the past decade of international scholarship on the European Union (EU) and normative power as represented by the contributions to the special issue. It argues that the normative power approach (NPA) makes it possible to explain, understand and judge the EU...... in global politics by rethinking the nature of power and actorness in a globalizing, multilateralizing and multipolarizing era. To do this, the article assesses the past decade in terms of normative power engagement, internationalization and comparison. The article then argues that rethinking power...... sets out how studying the normative foundations of power through the NPA combines the normative rethinking of power and actorness with the structural changes of a globalizing, multilateralizing and multipolarizing era....

  11. Science and Society: Public History in the Context of Historical Culture of the Globalization Era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorina P. Repina

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the XIX century known as the „historical age”, a high degree of trust to history and social prestige of historical science relied on the entrenched in public consciousness the idea of continuity of historical development of a human civilization and, respectively, of the unique opportunities of the use of the past experience as a means to solve the problems of the present and to build „the bright future”. But the understanding of the dramatic experi-ence of the XX century undermined the belief in the “use of history”, and this situation has been greatly aggravated with intensification of the processes of globalization on the bor-der of XX and XXI centuries. The problems of interaction between “academic (professional history” and the wide public in the concrete societies and the changes in their relations in the context of deep social transformations proved to take place at the center of many re-searchers’ attention. Public history is purposefully overcoming the typical for historical science of the XX century alienation from „the uninitiated”; it strives to restore the interest of the consumer to the historians’ production, to propagate professional standards, histor-ical knowledge and proper understanding of the specific character of “historian’s craft” among the wide circles of the non-professionals.

  12. Beyond offshoring: assess your company's global potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Diana

    2004-12-01

    In the past few years, companies have become aware that they can slash costs by offshoring: moving jobs to lower-wage locations. But this practice is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how globalization can transform industries, according to research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). The institute's yearlong study suggests that by streamlining their production processes and supply chains globally, rather than just nationally or regionally, companies can lower their costs-as we've seen in the consumer-electronics and PC industries. Companies can save as much as 70% of their total costs through globalization--50% from offshoring, 5% from training and business-task redesign, and 15% from process improvements. But they don't have to stop there. The cost reductions make it possible to lower prices and expand into new markets, attracting whole new classes of customers. To date, however, few businesses have recognized the full scope of performance improvements that globalization makes possible, much less developed sound strategies for capturing those opportunities. In this article, Diana Farrell, director of MGI, offers a step-by-step approach to doing both things. Among her suggestions: Assess where your industry falls along the globalization spectrum, because not all sectors of the economy face the same challenges and opportunities at the same time. Also, pay attention to production, regulatory, and organizational barriers to globalization. If any of these can be changed, size up the cost-saving (and revenue-generating) opportunities that will emerge for your company as a result of those changes. Farrell also defines the five stages of globalization-market entry, product specialization, value chain disaggregation, value chain reengineering, and the creation of new markets-and notes the different levers for cutting costs and creating value that companies can use in each phase.

  13. Global mineral resource assessment: porphyry copper assessment of Mexico: Chapter A in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Robinson,, Gilpin R.; Ludington, Steve; Gray, Floyd; Drenth, Benjamin J.; Cendejas-Cruz, Francisco; Espinosa, Enrique; Pérez-Segura, Efrén; Valencia-Moreno, Martín; Rodríguez-Castañeda, José Luis; Vásquez-Mendoza, Rigobert; Zürcher, Lukas

    2010-01-01

    Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about distributions of mineral deposits in the Earth’s crust. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources in porphyry copper deposits in Mexico was done as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within 1 km of the surface at a scale of 1:1,000,000; (2) provide a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered deposits for each permissive tract. The assessment was conducted using a three-part form of mineral resource assessment based on mineral deposit models (Singer, 1993). Delineation of permissive tracts primarily was based on distributions of mapped igneous rocks related to magmatic arcs that formed in tectonic settings associated with subduction boundary zones. Using a GIS, map units were selected from digital geologic maps based on lithology and age to delineate twelve permissive tracts associated with Jurassic, Laramide (~90 to 34 Ma), and younger Tertiary magmatic arcs. Stream-sediment geochemistry, mapped alteration, regional aeromagnetic data, and exploration history were considered in conjunction with descriptive deposit models and grade and tonnage models to guide estimates.

  14. Assessing the impact of global price interdependencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Anke

    2008-01-01

    Documented launch delays and the ensuing debate over their underlying causes have focused on assessment from the individual country's perspective. Seen in a larger game theoretical framework this may cause problems, because although the countries see an individual game, the pharmaceutical firm sees a repeated linked game. The links are due to external reference pricing and parallel trade. Behaviours that are optimal in the single, individual game (for either the country or the pharmaceutical firm) may no longer be optimal when considering the global repeated game. A theoretical mixed integer linear model of the firm's launch and pricing decisions is presented along with examples wherein international price dependencies most likely played a role. This model can help countries understand the implication of their external reference pricing policies on the global repeated pricing game. Understanding the behaviour of the pharmaceutical firm in this global context aids countries in designing policies to maximize the welfare of their citizens.

  15. Why a Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempel, Gotthilf; Daler, Dag

    2004-02-01

    Why GIWA? Six years ago several people had their doubts as to whether a Global International Waters Assessment would be worth the money and effort. Nowadays, it is no longer necessary to justify the creation of GIWA. On the contrary, we will show how important it was that the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and UNEP, constituted GIWA. Countless water-related assessments focus on specific regions and/or specific issues. But GIWA is unique in its global and holistic policy-oriented approach applying a common methodology to address the major problems in all parts of the global hydrosphere. One major achievement of GIWA will be the GIWA publications which provide advice to GEF and other decision-making organizations. Further assets include the network of regional focal points and teams. GIWA encompasses marine, surface freshwater, and groundwater systems, following the flow of water from the sources in the mountains through the rivers and estuaries into the coastal waters and the shelf seas. GIWA studies the physical, chemical and biological properties of those waterbodies and living resources in relation to the human activities, combining ecological and socioeconomic considerations.

  16. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T.B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Patwardhan, A.; Gomez-Echeverri, L. (eds.)

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  17. Assessment of global water security: moving beyond water scarcity assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Gain, A. K.; Giupponi, C.

    2015-12-01

    Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies, and the ecosystems on which we depend. Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Hence, ensuring water security along with energy and food securities has been recognised as priority goals in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the United Nations. This water security is not rooted only in the limitation of physical resources, i.e. the shortage in the availability of freshwater relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. flawed water planning and management approaches, institutional incapability to provide water services, unsustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for assessment of global water scarcity. However, integrating both physical and socio-economic indicators assessment of water security at global level is not available yet. In this study, we present the first global understanding of water security using a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework that goes beyond available water scarcity assessment. For assessing water security at global scale, the term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The Water security index is calculated by aggregating the indicators using both simple additive weighting (SAW) and ordered weighted average (OWA).

  18. Economists, capitalists, and the making of globalization: North American free trade in comparative-historical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbrother, Malcolm

    2014-03-01

    Why did globalization happen? Current explanations point to a variety of conditions under which states have made the free market policy changes driving international economic integration since the 1980s. Such accounts disagree, however, about the key actors involved. This article provides a reconciliation, showing how two different combinations of actors, and two different political economic pathways, have led to globalization in recent decades. In developed countries, mobilization by business has been central; elsewhere, technocrats both constrained and empowered by international finance have pursued globalization more independently of business. In both contexts, economists' technical authority has helped legitimate liberalization, despite the limited diffusion of their ideas. The article validates and elaborates this model using a comparative-historical study of how the United States, Canada, and Mexico proposed, negotiated, and ratified agreements for free trade in North America.

  19. Historical Pattern and Future Trajectories of Terrestrial N2O Emission driven by Multi-factor Global Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Yang, J.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.

    2015-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is among the most important greenhouse gases only next to carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) due to its long life time and high radiative forcing (with a global warming potential 265 times as much as CO2 at 100-year time horizon). The Atmospheric concentration of N2O has increased by 20% since pre-industrial era, and this increase plays a significant role in shaping anthropogenic climate change. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, fewer studies have been performed in assessing and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of N2O emission from natural and agricultural soils. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model, DLEM, to quantify the historical and future changes in global terrestrial N2O emissions resulting from natural and anthropogenic perturbations including climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) over the period 1900-2099. We focused on inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes during historical and future periods. The sensitivity of N2O emission to climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities has been examined at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. Future projections were conducted to identify the hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission under two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). It provides a modeling perspective for understanding human-induced N2O emission growth and developing potential management strategies to mitigate further atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

  20. Assessing a Historically Hispanic Serving Institution Internationalization Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Iuspa

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a qualitative study conducted at a Historically Hispanic Serving Institution (HHSI to further the understanding of its internationalization decision-making process. The study uses the Internationalization Cube model to review the institution’s internal processes and policies toward internationalization and assess how its international activities align with its internationalization efforts. The Internationalization Cube, an eight-cell model, permits the positioning of Institutions of Higher Education (IHEs based on the analysis of its three dimensions and respective subcategories: policy, support, and implementation. The International Dimension Index (IDI and the Item Relevancy Index (IRI were also used to determine the level of alignment between the HHSI position on the Internationalization Cube and its international activities. The study finds that the HHSI is on Position 6 on the Internationalization Cube (priority policy, one-sided support, and systematic/structure implementation, and exhibits all the international activities considered indicators of internationalization but attention is needed to foreign language, international students, study abroad, faculty movement and involvement in international projects. The study concludes that an association exists between the institution’s position on the Internationalization Cube and its international activities, and adjustments in the institution’s policy, support, and implementation dimensions will be required to advance its position on the Internationalization Cube making its internationalization process more sustainable. This study makes a contribution to addressing the need to assess an IHE by presenting a holistic organizational framework instead of a fragmented international activities organizational analysis.

  1. Stem cell engineering a WTEC global assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Loring, Jeanne; McDevitt, Todd; Palecek, Sean; Schaffer, David; Zandstra, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book describes a global assessment of stem cell engineering research, achieved through site visits by a panel of experts to leading institutes, followed by dedicated workshops. The assessment made clear that engineers and the engineering approach with its quantitative, system-based thinking can contribute much to the progress of stem cell research and development. The increased need for complex computational models and new, innovative technologies, such as high-throughput screening techniques, organ-on-a-chip models and in vitro tumor models require an increasing involvement of engineers and physical scientists. Additionally, this book will show that although the US is still in a leadership position in stem cell engineering, Asian countries such as Japan, China and Korea, as well as European countries like the UK, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands are rapidly expanding their investments in the field. Strategic partnerships between countries could lead to major advances of the field and scalable expansi...

  2. Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program - GSHAP legacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurentiu Danciu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program - or simply GSHAP, when launched, almost two decades ago, aimed at establishing a common framework to evaluate the seismic hazard over geographical large-scales, i.e. countries, regions, continents and finally the globe. Its main product, the global seismic hazard map was a milestone, unique at that time and for a decade have served as the main reference worldwide. Today, for most of the Earth’s seismically active regions such Europe, Northern and Southern America, Central and South-East Asia, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the GSHAP seismic hazard map is outdated. The rapid increase of the new data, advance on the earthquake process knowledge, technological progress, both hardware and software, contributed all in updates of the seismic hazard models. We present herein, a short retrospective overview of the achievements as well as the pitfalls of the GSHAP. Further, we describe the next generation of seismic hazard models, as elaborated within the Global Earthquake Model, regional programs: the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model, the 2014 Earthquake Model for Middle East, and the 2015 Earthquake Model of Central Asia. Later, the main characteristics of these regional models are summarized and the new datasets fully harmonized across national borders are illustrated for the first time after the GSHAP completion.

  3. Global Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Level Rise Estimation with Optimal Historical Time Lag Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa M. Aral

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of global temperatures and sea level rise (SLR is important for sustainable development planning of coastal regions of the world and the health and safety of communities living in these regions. In this study, climate change effects on sea level rise is investigated using a dynamic system model (DSM with time lag on historical input data. A time-invariant (TI-DSM and time-variant dynamic system model (TV-DSM with time lag is developed to predict global temperatures and SLR in the 21st century. The proposed model is an extension of the DSM developed by the authors. The proposed model includes the effect of temperature and sea level states of several previous years on the current temperature and sea level over stationary and also moving scale time periods. The optimal time lag period used in the model is determined by minimizing a synthetic performance index comprised of the root mean square error and coefficient of determination which is a measure for the reliability of the predictions. Historical records of global temperature and sea level from 1880 to 2001 are used to calibrate the model. The optimal time lag is determined to be eight years, based on the performance measures. The calibrated model was then used to predict the global temperature and sea levels in the 21st century using a fixed time lag period and moving scale time lag periods. To evaluate the adverse effect of greenhouse gas emissions on SLR, the proposed model was also uncoupled to project the SLR based on global temperatures that are obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC emission scenarios. The projected SLR estimates for the 21st century are presented comparatively with the predictions made in previous studies.

  4. A global assessment of stem cell engineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loring, Jeanne F; McDevitt, Todd C; Palecek, Sean P; Schaffer, David V; Zandstra, Peter W; Nerem, Robert M

    2014-10-01

    Over the last 2 years a global assessment of stem cell engineering (SCE) was conducted with the sponsorship of the National Science Foundation, the National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The purpose was to gather information on the worldwide status and trends in SCE, that is, the involvement of engineers and engineering approaches in the stem cell field, both in basic research and in the translation of research into clinical applications and commercial products. The study was facilitated and managed by the World Technology Evaluation Center. The process involved site visits in both Asia and Europe, and it also included several different workshops. From this assessment, the panel concluded that there needs to be an increased role for engineers and the engineering approach. This will provide a foundation for the generation of new markets and future economic growth. To do this will require an increased investment in engineering, applied research, and commercialization as it relates to stem cell research and technology. It also will require programs that support interdisciplinary teams, new innovative mechanisms for academic-industry partnerships, and unique translational models. In addition, the global community would benefit from forming strategic partnerships between countries that can leverage existing and emerging strengths in different institutions. To implement such partnerships will require multinational grant programs with appropriate review mechanisms.

  5. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  6. Assessing global partnerships in graduate nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birch, Amelia P; Tuck, Jodi; Malata, Address; Gagnon, Anita J

    2013-11-01

    North-South partnerships in graduate nursing education can prepare students to address global healthcare issues, increase cultural competence, and build research capacity. However, the current literature does not include a critical and systematic assessment of partnerships using established guidelines. This paper has two objectives: 1) Find and refine a suitable measure to assess a North-South inter-institutional research and clinical partnership in nursing; 2) Pilot test an assessment measure and describe the results of a systematic institutional self-evaluation of a developing North-South research and clinical partnership within a graduate nursing program. The first objective was addressed by searching for, examining and selecting an assessment measure. The second objective was obtained by applying the assessment measure to a developing graduate-level research and clinical partnership between a Canadian School of Nursing and a Malawian College of Nursing; qualitative data collected included information from a document review and subjective experiences of partners. Results showed that when appropriate revisions are made to an existing guideline, it is applicable to use as an assessment measure for North-South inter-institutional research and clinical partnerships. Recommendations for improvement were made, allowing the guideline to be more specific for research and clinical partnerships. Results demonstrated that the existing Canadian-Malawian partnership was strongest in the guideline category of "shaping the purpose and scope of the partnership," and weakest in "partnership implementation and context." This paper implies that: 1) evaluation can strengthen partnerships and enhance educational experience for nursing students; 2) research comparing and contrasting different genres of partnerships could help determine which type is the most appropriate for an institutions' particular outcome goals; and 3) effective establishment and maintenance of North

  7. Assessing historical empathy through simulation – How do Finnish teacher students achieve contextual historical empathy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jukka Rantala

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a great deal of international debate about introducing historical empathy as the focus in teaching history. However, as it is, the contents of the concept have been included in the curricula in many countries. Nevertheless, practising stepping into the shoes of a person from a previous era is still in its infancy in schools in many locations – Finland included. This article discusses Finnish class teacher students' understanding of historical empathy. The article is based on a study where 360 class teacher students played a game simulating the Cuban Missile Crisis. Their task was to assume the roles of the superpower leaders and make decisions on the basis of these roles. The simulation showed that a majority of the student teachers are able to attain a level of contextual historical empathy. They were able to empathize with the historical context in question and make such decisions that would have been possible for the historical actors. Some of the playing groups on the other hand, referred to their current knowledge and attitudes, which, according to Ashby and Lee's empathy classification, shows lower-level empathy. The study corroborates previous research results concerning great discrepancies in the understanding of empathy prevalent within one age group. Moreover, the study raises the question of how historical empathy should be handled in teaching if many future teachers have difficulties in understanding it.

  8. How to Quantify Human-environment Interactions in the Past: A Global Historical Land Use Data Set for the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein Goldewijk, K.

    2015-12-01

    Land use plays an important role in the climate system. Many ecosystem processes are directly or indirectly climate driven, and together with human driven land use changes, they determine how the land surface will evolve through time. To assess the effects of land cover changes on the climate system, models are required which are capable of simulating interactions between the involved components of the Earth system. Since driving forces for global environmental change differ among regions, a geographically (spatially) explicit modeling approach is called for, so that it can be incorporated in global and regional (climate and/or biophysical) change models in order to enhance our understanding of the underlying processes and thus improving future projections.Some researchers suggest that mankind has shifted from living in the Holocene (~emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (~humans capable of changing the Earth' atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land use changes (e.g. the Black Plague in the 14th century and the aftermath of the Colombian Exchange in the 16th century), some believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time. There are still many uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge about the importance of land use (change) in the global biogeochemical cycle, and it is crucial that researchers from other disciplines are involved in decreasing the uncertainties.Thus, integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleo-environmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. Here I present a tool for such long term global change studies; it is the latest update (v 3.2) of the History Database of the Global

  9. Global approach of mean service satisfaction assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Dooguy Kora

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical expression for mobile service satisfaction assessment has been proposed. Mobile networks users’ satisfaction is a major concern for the operators and regulators. Therefore a certain level of network qualification is required to be offered to consumers by operators thanks to the decisions initiated by the regulation authority. For the assessment of the level of satisfaction, several methodologies and tools (measuring and monitoring have emerged. Ranking in two broad categories, namely the objective and subjective methods, both have advantages as well as disadvantages. This Letter has proposed a unified approach to evaluate more objectively users’ level of satisfaction of a service based on the most common network key performance indicators (KPIs rate following the different methods. This approach's main advantage is that it has taken advantages of the different positive aspects of the existing methods and outperformed their limitations thanks to the introduced concept of global KPI. In addition, the size of samples according to each method has been considered. A mean service satisfaction theoretical expression has been proposed to regulation authority, consumers association and operators as common base of service satisfaction assessment.

  10. Simulated impacts of historical land cover changes on global climate in northern winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chase, T.N.; Pielke Sr., R.A. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Science; Kittel, T.G.F. [Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States); Nemani, R.R.; Running, S.W. [School of Forestry, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812 (United States)

    2000-02-01

    This ten-year general circulation model experiment compared a simulation where land surface boundary conditions were represented by observed, present day land cover to a simulation where the surface was represented by natural, potential land cover conditions. As a result of these estimated changes in historical land cover, significant temperature and hydrology changes affected tropical land surfaces, where some of the largest historical disruptions in total vegetation biomass have occurred. Also of considerable interest because of their broad scope and magnitude were changes in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere winter climate which resulted from changes in tropical convection, upper-level tropical outflow, and the generation of low-frequency tropical waves which propagated to the extratropics. These effects combined to move the Northern Hemisphere zonally averaged westerly jet to higher latitudes, broaden it, and reduce its maximum intensity. Low-level easterlies were also reduced over much of the tropical Pacific basin while positive anomalies in convective precipitation occurred in the central Pacific. Globally averaged changes were small. Comparisons of recent, observed trends in tropical and Northern Hemisphere, midlatitude climate with these simulations suggests an interaction between the climatic effects of historical land cover changes and other modes of climate variability. (orig.)

  11. On the historical biogeography of global Galliformes: ancestral range and diversification patterns

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Youhua; Chen

    2014-01-01

    Background: In this study, the ancestral distributional ranges and the tempo of diversification patterns of global Galliformes were investigated.Methods: Different diversification models characterizing possible tempo patterns were fitted and compared onto the phylogenetic tree for the 197 Galliforme species, consisting of a constant-speciation and constant-extinction model(CONSTANT), a decreasing-speciation and constant-extinction model(SPVAR), a constant-speciation and increasing-extinction model(EXVAR) and a decreasing-speciation and increasing-extinction model(BOTHVAR).Ancestral range reconstruction was conducted using the dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis model.Results: A constant-diversification-rate(CONSTANT) model best quantified the historical speciation patterns of this avian assemblage through model selection. Clade age and species richness are significantly and positively correlated. The most recent common ancestor for Galliformes species was originally found in the disjunctive regions between Southeast Asia and North America. High-frequency dispersal events were identified across the whole evolutionary time.Conclusions: The constant diversification rate for global Galliforme species implied that there were no diversification rate-shifting trends for Galliformes species. The present study may contribute to the understanding of the ecology and diversity patterns of Galliformes from the perspective of historical biogeography, although some limitations existed.

  12. On the historical biogeography of global Galliformes:ancestral range and diversification patterns

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Youhua Chen

    2014-01-01

    Background:In this study, the ancestral distributional ranges and the tempo of diversification patterns of global Galliformes were investigated. Methods:Different diversification models characterizing possible tempo patterns were fitted and compared onto the phylogenetic tree for the 197 Galliforme species, consisting of a constant-speciation and constant-extinction model (CONSTANT), a decreasing-speciation and constant-extinction model (SPVAR), a constant-speciation and increasing-extinction model (EXVAR) and a decreasing-speciation and increasing-extinction model (BOTHVAR). Ancestral range reconstruction was conducted using the dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis model. Results:A constant-diversification-rate (CONSTANT) model best quantified the historical speciation patterns of this avian assemblage through model selection. Clade age and species richness are significantly and positively correlated. The most recent common ancestor for Galliformes species was originally found in the disjunctive regions between Southeast Asia and North America. High-frequency dispersal events were identified across the whole evolutionary time. Conclusions:The constant diversification rate for global Gal iforme species implied that there were no diversification rate-shifting trends for Galliformes species. The present study may contribute to the understanding of the ecology and diversity patterns of Galliformes from the perspective of historical biogeography, although some limitations existed.

  13. From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miina Porkka

    Full Text Available Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965-2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (15% of dietary energy supply increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.

  14. Impact of mercury emissions from historic gold and silver mining: Global modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strode, Sarah; Jaeglé, Lyatt; Selin, Noelle E.

    We compare a global model of mercury to sediment core records to constrain mercury emissions from the 19th century North American gold and silver mining. We use information on gold and silver production, the ratio of mercury lost to precious metal produced, and the fraction of mercury lost to the atmosphere to calculate an a priory mining inventory for the 1870s, when the historical gold rush was at its highest. The resulting global mining emissions are 1630 Mg yr -1, consistent with previously published studies. Using this a priori estimate, we find that our 1880 simulation over-predicts the mercury deposition enhancements archived in lake sediment records. Reducing the mining emissions to 820 Mg yr -1 improves agreement with observations, and leads to a 30% enhancement in global deposition in 1880 compared to the pre-industrial period. For North America, where 83% of the mining emissions are located, deposition increases by 60%. While our lower emissions of atmospheric mercury leads to a smaller impact of the North American gold rush on global mercury deposition than previously estimated, it also implies that a larger fraction of the mercury used in extracting precious metals could have been directly lost to local soils and watersheds.

  15. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  16. The United Nations and Global Public Goods: Historical Contributions and Future Challenges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce Jenks

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Published by Palgrave MacmillanThis chapter explores the thesis that the United Nations’ (UN most important contribution to the production of global public goods has been its role in creating the space and capacity to generate shared values. Starting with the UN Charter itself, the chapter traces the evolution of this contribution through different historical phases. It analyses the impact of globalisation on the role of the UN; in particular it identifies the quality of porousness as a product of globalisation which is critical to understanding the current challenges faced by the UN as well as central to the global public goods agenda. Through this lens the author briefly reviews the evolution of the UN’s role in the fields of peace and security, human rights and development cooperation. He concludes by identifying eight levers for change that will determine the UN’s ability to contribute significantly to the global public goods: the generation of norms and shared values, the quality of leadership, improved governance, innovative financing, institutional realignment, the further consolidation of legal instruments, focus, and the power of networks.

  17. From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porkka, Miina; Kummu, Matti; Siebert, Stefan; Varis, Olli

    2013-01-01

    Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965-2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d) has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (Latin America, China and Southeast Asia. Besides, the composition of diets has changed considerably within the study period: the world population living with high supply of animal source food (>15% of dietary energy supply) increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d) has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.

  18. Exploring the influence of ancient and historic megaherbivore extirpations on the global methane budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Felisa A.; Hammond, John I.; Balk, Meghan A.; Elliott, Scott M.; Lyons, S. Kathleen; Pardi, Melissa I.; Tomé, Catalina P.; Wagner, Peter J.; Westover, Marie L.

    2016-01-01

    Globally, large-bodied wild mammals are in peril. Because "megamammals" have a disproportionate influence on vegetation, trophic interactions, and ecosystem function, declining populations are of considerable conservation concern. However, this is not new; trophic downgrading occurred in the past, including the African rinderpest epizootic of the 1890s, the massive Great Plains bison kill-off in the 1860s, and the terminal Pleistocene extinction of megafauna. Examining the consequences of these earlier events yields insights into contemporary ecosystem function. Here, we focus on changes in methane emissions, produced as a byproduct of enteric fermentation by herbivores. Although methane is ∼200 times less abundant than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the greater efficiency of methane in trapping radiation leads to a significant role in radiative forcing of climate. Using global datasets of late Quaternary mammals, domestic livestock, and human population from the United Nations as well as literature sources, we develop a series of allometric regressions relating mammal body mass to population density and CH4 production, which allows estimation of methane production by wild and domestic herbivores for each historic or ancient time period. We find the extirpation of megaherbivores reduced global enteric emissions between 2.2-69.6 Tg CH4 y-1 during the various time periods, representing a decrease of 0.8-34.8% of the overall inputs to tropospheric input. Our analyses suggest that large-bodied mammals have a greater influence on methane emissions than previously appreciated and, further, that changes in the source pool from herbivores can influence global biogeochemical cycles and, potentially, climate.

  19. Modelling assessment of regional groundwater contamination due to historic smelter emissions of heavy metals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grift, B. van der; Griffioen, J.

    2008-01-01

    Historic emissions from ore smelters typically cause regional soil contamination. We developed a modelling approach to assess the impact of such contamination on groundwater and surface water load, coupling unsaturated zone leaching modelling with 3D groundwater transport modelling. Both historic an

  20. Value assessment of a global hydrological forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; van Beek, E.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    The inter-annual variability in streamflow presents risks and opportunities in the management of water resources systems. Reliable hydrological forecasts, effective communication and proper response allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. A global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value for these regions. FEWS-World system is developed for this purpose. It is based on the Delft-FEWS (flood early warning system) developed by Deltares and incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value as its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. For the assessment in historical simulation mode a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode the model was forced with ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The results of the preliminary assessment show that although forecasting skill decreases with increasing lead time, the value of forecasts does not necessarily decrease. The forecast requirements and response options of several water related sectors was

  1. Global Drought Assessment using a Multi-Model Dataset

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lanen, van H.A.J.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Corzo Perez, G.; Wanders, N.; Hazenberg, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Estifanos, S.; Melsen, L.A.

    2011-01-01

    Large-scale models are often applied to study past drought (forced with global reanalysis datasets) and to assess future drought (using downscaled, bias-corrected forcing from climate models). The EU project WATer and global CHange (WATCH) provides a 0.5o degree global dataset of meteorological forc

  2. Accuracy Assessment Points for Appomattox Court House National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This shapefile depicts the locations of thematic accuracy assessment sampling points used in the vegetation mapping of Appomottox Court House National Historical...

  3. Accuracy Assessment Points for Colonial National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This shapefile depicts the locations of thematic accuracy assessment sampling points used in the vegetation mapping of Colonial National Historical Park. It was...

  4. Accuracy Assessment Points for San Antonio Missions National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This metadata is for the 2006 accuracy assessment points (spatial database) created from the sample points collected at San Antonio Missions National Historical Park.

  5. Global gradients in vertebrate diversity predicted by historical area-productivity dynamics and contemporary environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Jetz

    Full Text Available Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or "evolutionary arenas," characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients.

  6. Development and application of indices using large volcanic databases for a global hazard and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Sarah; Auker, Melanie; Cottrell, Elizabeth; Delgado Granados, Hugo; Loughlin, Sue; Ortiz Guerrero, Natalie; Sparks, Steve; Vye-Brown, Charlotte; Taskforce, Indices

    2015-04-01

    The Global Volcano Model (GVM) and IAVCEI were commissioned by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction to produce a global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk for the Global Assessment Report 2015 (GAR15). This involved presenting both an introduction to volcanology and developing indices to assess hazard and risk on a global scale. To this end two open-access databases were of utmost importance: the Global Volcanism Program's Volcanoes of the World (http://www.volcano.si.edu) and the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions database (LaMEVE; http://www.bgs.ac.uk/vogripa/). Indices were developed to enable a relative global assessment cognisant of data uncertainty and availability to broadly identify how hazard and risk varies around the world, the extent of monitoring and strengths and limitations in knowledge. The accessibility of both physical (e.g. volcano, eruption) and social data is crucial to our understanding of past behaviour, forecasting probable future behaviour and the potential impacts on communities. Such data is regionally highly variable and the eruption record worsens back in time. The Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI) was designed to quantify hazard levels globally, based on the Holocene eruption record. Vulnerability to eruptions was measured using the Population Exposure Index, which weights the population within 100 km of volcanoes by area and historical fatalities. The combination of these indices provides an indicator of population risk at individual volcanoes. The VHI was also combined with the total populations living within 30 km of volcanoes in each country to develop an understanding of the global distribution of volcano threat, and to rank countries by this measure. About half of the historically active volcanoes have insufficient information to adequately calculate VHI and these are highlighted as requiring future research. A database currently in development, GLOVOREMID, collates monitoring data to understand

  7. Seismic Assessment and Retrofit of Historical Masonry Structures

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The Italian building heritage is composed mainly of masonry structures, which over the years have acquired historic significance and artistic values in the national culture. These buildings are particularly vulnerable to the seismic actions, because they were design for gravitational loads without considering seismic actions applied on them. Thus, the constructive details are not compliant with the present design code provisions (e.g. in plan or elevation structural regularity) and to avoid c...

  8. Historical Assessment of Hypoxia in Narragansett Bay Using Geochemical Markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eutrophication due to anthropogenic activities has affected aquatic ecosystems globally. Increased inputs of nitrogen and other nutrients to estuarine and marine ecosystems as a result of agricultural practices, urbanization and suburbanization have resulted in degradation of wat...

  9. Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

  10. An integrated approach to historical population assessment of the great whales: case of the New Zealand southern right whale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Jennifer A; Carroll, Emma L; Smith, Tim D; Zerbini, Alexandre N; Patenaude, Nathalie J; Baker, C Scott

    2016-03-01

    Accurate estimation of historical abundance provides an essential baseline for judging the recovery of the great whales. This is particularly challenging for whales hunted prior to twentieth century modern whaling, as population-level catch records are often incomplete. Assessments of whale recovery using pre-modern exploitation indices are therefore rare, despite the intensive, global nature of nineteenth century whaling. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) were particularly exploited: slow swimmers with strong fidelity to sheltered calving bays, the species made predictable and easy targets. Here, we present the first integrated population-level assessment of the whaling impact and pre-exploitation abundance of a right whale, the New Zealand southern right whale (E. australis). In this assessment, we use a Bayesian population dynamics model integrating multiple data sources: nineteenth century catches, genetic constraints on bottleneck size and individual sightings histories informing abundance and trend. Different catch allocation scenarios are explored to account for uncertainty in the population's offshore distribution. From a pre-exploitation abundance of 28 800-47 100 whales, nineteenth century hunting reduced the population to approximately 30-40 mature females between 1914 and 1926. Today, it stands at less than 12% of pre-exploitation abundance. Despite the challenges of reconstructing historical catches and population boundaries, conservation efforts of historically exploited species benefit from targets for ecological restoration.

  11. Global diversification of a tropical plant growth form: environmental correlates and historical contingencies in climbing palms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couvreur, Thomas L P; Kissling, W Daniel; Condamine, Fabien L; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Rowe, Nick P; Baker, William J

    2014-01-01

    Tropical rain forests (TRF) are the most diverse terrestrial biome on Earth, but the diversification dynamics of their constituent growth forms remain largely unexplored. Climbing plants contribute significantly to species diversity and ecosystem processes in TRF. We investigate the broad-scale patterns and drivers of species richness as well as the diversification history of climbing and non-climbing palms (Arecaceae). We quantify to what extent macroecological diversity patterns are related to contemporary climate, forest canopy height, and paleoclimatic changes. We test whether diversification rates are higher for climbing than non-climbing palms and estimate the origin of the climbing habit. Climbers account for 22% of global palm species diversity, mostly concentrated in Southeast Asia. Global variation in climbing palm species richness can be partly explained by past and present-day climate and rain forest canopy height, but regional differences in residual species richness after accounting for current and past differences in environment suggest a strong role of historical contingencies in climbing palm diversification. Climbing palms show a higher net diversification rate than non-climbers. Diversification analyses of palms detected a diversification rate increase along the branches leading to the most species-rich clade of climbers. Ancestral character reconstructions revealed that the climbing habit originated between early Eocene and Miocene. These results imply that changes from non-climbing to climbing habits may have played an important role in palm diversification, resulting in the origin of one fifth of all palm species. We suggest that, in addition to current climate and paleoclimatic changes after the late Neogene, present-day diversity of climbing palms can be explained by morpho-anatomical innovations, the biogeographic history of Southeast Asia, and/or ecological opportunities due to the diversification of high-stature dipterocarps in Asian TRFs.

  12. Global diversification of a tropical plant growth form: environmental correlates and historical contingencies in climbing palms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas L. P. Couvreur

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical rain forests (TRF are the most diverse terrestrial biome on Earth, but the diversification dynamics of their constituent growth forms remain largely unexplored. Climbing plants contribute significantly to species diversity and ecosystem processes in TRF. We investigate the broad-scale patterns and drivers of species richness as well as the diversification history of climbing and non-climbing palms (Arecaceae. We quantify to what extent macroecological diversity patterns are related to contemporary climate, forest canopy height and paleoclimatic changes. We test whether diversification rates are higher for climbing than non-climbing palms and estimate the origin of the climbing habit. Climbers account for 22% of global palm species diversity mostly concentrated in Southeast Asia. Global variation in climbing palm species richness can be partly explained by past and present-day climate and rain forest canopy height, but regional differences in residual species richness after accounting for current and past differences in environment suggest a strong role of historical contingencies in climbing palm diversification. Climbing palms show a higher net diversification rate than non-climbers. Diversification analysis of palms detected a diversification rate increase along the branches leading to the most species-rich clade of climbers. Ancestral character reconstructions revealed that the climbing habit originated between early Eocene and Miocene. These results imply that changes from non-climbing to climbing habit may have played an important role in palm diversification, resulting in the origin of one fifth of all palm species. We suggest that, in addition to current climate and paleoclimatic changes after the late Neogene, present-day diversity of climbing palms can be explained by morpho-anatomical innovations, the biogeographic history of Southeast Asia, and/or ecological opportunities due to the diversification of high

  13. Value and vulnerability assessment of a historic tomb for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erkal, Aykut; Ozhan, Hakki O

    2014-01-01

    Monumental tombs reflect various social, cultural, architectural, religious, economic, and engineering features of a community. However, environmental weathering, natural disasters, poor maintenance, vandalism, and misuse unfortunately pose serious threats to these cultural assets. Historic monuments are often exposed to the highest risk due to their vulnerability. The Ottoman-style Nişancı Hamza Paşa tomb located in Karacaahmet Cemetery, Istanbul, the largest and oldest public cemetery in Turkey, is a case in point. The tomb consisting of six granite columns and a brick dome supported by six arches was constructed in 1605. Cracks, material loss, and decay as a result of adverse environmental effects and past earthquakes are evident. Therefore, this paper analyses the overall value of the tomb with respect to its historical, communal, evidential, and aesthetic aspects. Using the finite element approach and data on the tomb's material properties, a structural analysis under the self-weight and a time history analysis based on the earthquake ground motion data recorded in Duzce, Turkey, in November 1999 were conducted to encourage the conservation of this tomb and similar cultural heritage assets all over the world. The damage observed in the structure is congruent with the analysis results.

  14. Humanity and all-humanistic values in conditions and prospect of globalization of cultural and historical process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhina I. G.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available For studying the phenomenon of a humanity as the universal cultural tradition that sublimates culture-creation qualities of the human person and verifies optimum anthropological structure of culture, the axiological approach directed to allocation, accentuation and analysis of valuable and semantic contents and meaning of humanity in conditions and prospects of modern process of globalization is used. Globalization is considered in the context of formation of the world cultural space - oykumena connected with modern cultural and historical process in the conditions of scientific and technical progress and positioning in it universal values or valuable universals of common to all mankind meta-cultures. As an axiological strategy of globalization cultural and historical process, the doctrine of new humanity, which is put forward and propagandized by the international public organization the Roman club, proved as the universal cultural and anthropological project adequate to formation of universal meta-culture and its humanistic values is analyzed. The biofilic axiological doctrine of new humanity, which is based on the backbone valuable principle of love to life and optimism and assuming an affirmation of unconditional value of life as cultural humanistic value at the level of a global outlook of modern era, is offered. European (Faustian humanism is analyzed in the context of identification of valuable and anthropological sources of globalization and global problems of the present that connected with the western culture, civilization, and westernization process. The comparative analysis of valuable and world outlook dominants of the European and new or global humanity is performed.

  15. Exploring Formative Assessment Using Cultural Historical Activity Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asghar, Mandy

    2013-01-01

    Formative assessment is a pedagogic practice that has been the subject of much research and debate, as to how it can be used most effectively to deliver enhanced student learning in the higher education setting. Often described as a complex concept it embraces activities that range from facilitating students understanding of assessment standards,…

  16. Assessment of Eligibility to National Register of Historic Places Building 431 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, M A; Ullrich, R A

    2003-05-07

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) proposes to demolish the original sections of Building 431 at its main site in Livermore, California. As this action will constitute an undertaking within the regulatory constraints of the National Historic Preservation Act, LLNL arranged for an assessment of the building's historic significance. This report provides a brief history of the magnetic fusion energy research activities housed in Building 431 and a historic assessment of the building. The final recommendation of the report is that, although Building 431 housed some significant breakthroughs in accelerator technology and magnetic mirror plasma confinement, it lacks integrity for the periods of significance of those developments. It is, therefore, not eligible to the National Register of Historic Places.

  17. Global ex-situ crop diversity conservation and the Svalbard Global Seed Vault: assessing the current status.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ola T Westengen

    Full Text Available Ex-situ conservation of crop diversity is a global concern, and the development of an efficient and sustainable conservation system is a historic priority recognized in international law and policy. We assess the completeness of the safety duplication collection in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault with respect to data on the world's ex-situ collections as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Currently, 774,601 samples are deposited at Svalbard by 53 genebanks. We estimate that more than one third of the globally distinct accessions of 156 crop genera stored in genebanks as orthodox seeds are conserved in the Seed Vault. The numbers of safety duplicates of Triticum (wheat, Sorghum (sorghum, Pennisetum (pearl millet, Eleusine (finger millet, Cicer (chickpea and Lens (lentil exceed 50% of the estimated numbers of distinct accessions in global ex-situ collections. The number of accessions conserved globally generally reflects importance for food production, but there are significant gaps in the safety collection at Svalbard in some genera of high importance for food security in tropical countries, such as Amaranthus (amaranth, Chenopodium (quinoa, Eragrostis (teff and Abelmoschus (okra. In the 29 food-crop genera with the largest number of accessions stored globally, an average of 5.5 out of the ten largest collections is already represented in the Seed Vault collection or is covered by existing deposit agreements. The high coverage of ITPGRFA Annex 1 crops and of those crops for which there is a CGIAR mandate in the current Seed Vault collection indicates that existence of international policies and institutions are important determinants for accessions to be safety duplicated at Svalbard. As a back-up site for the global conservation system, the Seed Vault plays not only a practical but also a symbolic role for enhanced integration and cooperation for conservation of crop diversity.

  18. Assessment of Global Weather Disasters in 2000

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Chuanfeng

    2001-01-01

    The global climate in 2000 kept warmer than that in the average year. The strong La Nina weakened abruptly after reaching its second peak value over the central and eastern Pacific region along the equator in January. The event had significant impacts upon the world climate, especially that in the tropical regions. Many areas of the Northern Hemisphere suffered severe cold weather in winter and heat wave in summer. The globe was afflicted with severe high temperature, drought and forest fire, whereas many areas in southern Asia, Western Europe, southern Africa, and northern South America were frequently attacked by storm rainfall. It is estimated that the global economic loss caused by weather disasters in 2000 was over $100 billion with hundreds of millions of people affected.

  19. The Historical Development of Educational Assessment in Chile: 1810-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gysling, Jacqueline

    2016-01-01

    This article examines the historical development of the state's actions in educational assessment in Chile from the nineteenth century to the present day, based on the analysis of governmental decrees and regulations related to assessment, and their variability over time. The research identifies six distinctive periods, each of which expresses a…

  20. Personality Assessment of Global Talent: Conceptual and Methodological Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Vijver, Fons J. R.

    2008-01-01

    The recruitment of managers who will operate in a culturally heterogeneous context (as expatriate managers, managers in a global company, or managers of a multicultural workforce) is increasingly important in an age of globalization. This article describes conceptual and methodological issues in the assessment of such managers, notably in the…

  1. PAGER - Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that estimates the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing...

  2. Seismic vulnerability assessment of an Italian historical masonry dry dock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Zucca

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the seismic vulnerability analysis of the military dry dock built in 1861 inside the Messina’s harbor. The study appears very important not only for the relevance of the dry dock itself, but also for its social, military and symbolic role. As a first step, the historical documentation about the dry dock delivered by the Military Technical Office, in charge of its maintenance, was thoroughly examined. This activity was fundamental to understand the construction methods, the rehabilitation works executed after the severe earthquake of 1908 and, finally, the works carried out to increase the size of the dry dock in 1950. After this first step, numerical seismic analyses were done with some implemented finite element models (FEM of the structure. In each FEM, the vertical loads were applied according to the “construction stages” analysis technique, in order to achieve an appropriate representation of the soil stresses around the structure. The analysis results were evaluated according to the Italian design code (NTC 2008 in order to determine the seismic vulnerability of the dry dock.

  3. Assessing the global threat from Zika virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessler, Justin; Chaisson, Lelia H; Kucirka, Lauren M; Bi, Qifang; Grantz, Kyra; Salje, Henrik; Carcelen, Andrea C; Ott, Cassandra T; Sheffield, Jeanne S; Ferguson, Neil M; Cummings, Derek A T; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel

    2016-08-12

    First discovered in 1947, Zika virus (ZIKV) infection remained a little-known tropical disease until 2015, when its apparent association with a considerable increase in the incidence of microcephaly in Brazil raised alarms worldwide. There is limited information on the key factors that determine the extent of the global threat from ZIKV infection and resulting complications. Here, we review what is known about the epidemiology, natural history, and public health effects of ZIKV infection, the empirical basis for this knowledge, and the critical knowledge gaps that need to be filled.

  4. Poseidon's paintbox : historical archives of ocean colour in global-change perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernand, M. R.

    2011-11-01

    In the thesis introduction issues are discussed on the historical background of marine optics and on marine optical devices that were used over the past centuries to observe and measure; as in all sciences, in marine optics we can see a steady development: that of ‘measuring’, beginning many centuries ago, to 'knowing' and since less than a century to the understanding of the phenomenon. Hereafter, six themes are treated successively. The first theme, ‘Ocean optics from 1600 (Hudson) to 1930 (Raman), shift in interpretation of natural water colouring’, addresses the question of why it took so long a time to explain the phenomenon ‘the colouring of the sea’, especially the blue colour, despite the age-long interest of sailors, for practical purposes of navigation and detection of fish - of which more later. The second theme ‘On the history of the Secchi disc’, describes the search to establish methods for the determination of (sea) water clarity concerning purposes of navigation (near coast colour changes) just mentioned to detect shoals, and for a more basic purpose, tracing lost objects. The search to determine the clarity of lakes and seas culminated in the invention of the Secchi disc, used since the late 19th century. The third theme, ‘Spectral analysis of the Forel-Ule ocean colour comparator scale’, addresses the accuracy of a colour scale proposed, used in limnology and oceanography. Scale observations are put into perspective with contemporary measurements on the colour of the sea. The fourth theme, ‘Ocean colour changes in the North Pacific since 1930’, handles the question whether long-term ocean colour changes using historic Forel-Ule observations, in this part of the ocean made very frequently over time, can be determined in relation to global change. In principal global warming may cause a gradual change in ocean colour due to the effect of biological, chemical and physical aspects of the ocean-surface. The fifth theme,

  5. Assessing the decennial, reassessing the global

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manners, Ian James

    2013-01-01

    This concluding article assesses the past decade of international scholarship on the European Union (EU) and normative power as represented by the contributions to the special issue. It argues that the normative power approach (NPA) makes it possible to explain, understand and judge the EU in glo...

  6. Historic global biomass burning emissions based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015)

    OpenAIRE

    Marle, Margreet J. E.; Kloster, Silvia; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Field, Robert D.; Arneth, Almut; Forrest, Matthew; Hantson, Stijn; Kehrwald, Natalie M.; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li,Fang; Mangeon, Stéphane; Yue, Chao

    2017-01-01

    Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data has shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visi...

  7. The European New Car Assessment Programme: A historical review

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michiel van Ratingen; Aled Williams; Anders Lie; Andre Seeck; Pierre Castaing; Reinhard Kolke; Guido Adriaenssens

    2016-01-01

    Established in 1997,the European New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP) provides consumers with a safety performance assessment for the majority of the most popular cars in Europe.Thanks to its rigorous crash tests,Euro NCAP has rapidly become an important driver safety improvement to new cars.After ten years of rating vehicles,Euro NCAP felt that a change was necessary to stay in tune with rapidly emerging driver assistance and crash avoidance systems and to respond to shifting priorities in road safety.A new overall rating system was introduced that combines the most important aspects of vehicle safety under a single star rating.The overall rating system has allowed Euro NCAP to continue to push for better fitment and higher performance for vehicles sold on the European market.In the coming years,the safety rating is expected to play an important role in the support of the roll-out of highly automated vehicles.

  8. Assessment of Marijuana Use and Psychosocial Behaviors at Two Historically Black Universities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen-Reid, Terra L.; Rhodes, Warren A.

    2003-01-01

    Assessed three constructs (resilient, invulnerable, and vulnerable) as they related to marijuana use, examining the role of spirituality and social support as potential buffering mechanisms. Data on 103 African American undergraduates from two historically black colleges indicated that students who continued to use marijuana were less spiritual…

  9. Assessing Historically Black College and University (HBCU) Students' Familiarity with the FCS-BOK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sung-Jin; Williams-Wheeler, Meeshay; Walker, Jane

    2015-01-01

    University faculty who are teaching courses in family and consumer sciences (FCS) have sought to integrate the body of knowledge (BOK) in their curricula. This article reports on a study assessing the familiarity of Historically Black College and University (HBCU) students with the FCS-BOK by their major (specialized area) and classification…

  10. On Applications of Rasch Models in International Comparative Large-Scale Assessments: A Historical Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendt, Heike; Bos, Wilfried; Goy, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Several current international comparative large-scale assessments of educational achievement (ICLSA) make use of "Rasch models", to address functions essential for valid cross-cultural comparisons. From a historical perspective, ICLSA and Georg Rasch's "models for measurement" emerged at about the same time, half a century ago. However, the…

  11. Assessing Proposals for New Global Health Treaties: An Analytic Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Steven J; Røttingen, John-Arne; Frenk, Julio

    2015-08-01

    We have presented an analytic framework and 4 criteria for assessing when global health treaties have reasonable prospects of yielding net positive effects. First, there must be a significant transnational dimension to the problem being addressed. Second, the goals should justify the coercive nature of treaties. Third, proposed global health treaties should have a reasonable chance of achieving benefits. Fourth, treaties should be the best commitment mechanism among the many competing alternatives. Applying this analytic framework to 9 recent calls for new global health treaties revealed that none fully meet the 4 criteria. Efforts aiming to better use or revise existing international instruments may be more productive than is advocating new treaties.

  12. Global Aquaculture Performance Index (GAPI): The First Global Environmental Assessment of Marine Fish Farming

    OpenAIRE

    Jenna M.S. Stoner; Wilson, Amanda J; Martina Beck; Jennifer L.M. Gee; Valerie A. Ethier; John P. Volpe

    2013-01-01

    “Sustainable” is among the most sought after of all seafood product adjectives. Ironically it is also one of the most poorly defined and understood. The Global Aquaculture Performance Index (GAPI) is the first tool to assess environmental performance of global marine aquaculture production, permitting direct comparison of disparate species, production methods and jurisdictions. Clear patterns emerge from this analysis; significant variation of environmental performance is driven by the specie...

  13. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    CERN Document Server

    Mercure, J F

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary mate...

  14. Balancing Attended and Global Stimuli in Perceived Video Quality Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Junyong; Korhonen, Jari; Perkis, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    The visual attention mechanism plays a key role in the human perception system and it has a significant impact on our assessment of perceived video quality. In spite of receiving less attention from the viewers, unattended stimuli can still contribute to the understanding of the visual content....... This paper proposes a quality model based on the late attention selection theory, assuming that the video quality is perceived via two mechanisms: global and local quality assessment. First we model several visual features influencing the visual attention in quality assessment scenarios to derive...... an attention map using appropriate fusion techniques. The global quality assessment as based on the assumption that viewers allocate their attention equally to the entire visual scene, is modeled by four carefully designed quality features. By employing these same quality features, the local quality model...

  15. The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vose, R.S. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center; Schmoyer, R.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Steurer, P.M.; Peterson, T.C.; Heim, R.; Karl, T.R. [National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States); Eischeid, J.K. [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences

    1992-07-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the last several years. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, these data sets have been compiled by many different organizations/researchers, making it confusing and time consuming for individual researchers to acquire the ``best`` data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) commenced the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved global base-line data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for a dense network. of worldwide meteorological stations. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global climate data base that can be updated, enhanced, and distributed at regular intervals. The first version of the GHCN data base was completed during the summer of 1992. It contains 6039 temperature, 7533 precipitation, 1883 sea level pressure, and 1873 station pressure stations. All stations have at least 10 years of data, 40% have more than 50 years of data, and 10% have more than 100 years of data. Spatial coverage is good over most of the globe, particularly for the United States and central Europe. In comparison to other major global data sets, dramatic improvements are evident over South America, Africa, and Asia. The GHCN data base is available as a Numeric Data Package (NDP) from CDIAC. The NDP consists of this document and two magnetic tapes that contain machine-readable data files and accompanying retrieval codes. This document describes, in detail, both the GHCN data base and the contents of the magnetic tap

  16. The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vose, R.S. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center); Schmoyer, R.L. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)); Steurer, P.M.; Peterson, T.C.; Heim, R.; Karl, T.R. (National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States)); Eischeid, J.K. (Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences)

    1992-07-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the last several years. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, these data sets have been compiled by many different organizations/researchers, making it confusing and time consuming for individual researchers to acquire the best'' data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) commenced the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved global base-line data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for a dense network. of worldwide meteorological stations. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global climate data base that can be updated, enhanced, and distributed at regular intervals. The first version of the GHCN data base was completed during the summer of 1992. It contains 6039 temperature, 7533 precipitation, 1883 sea level pressure, and 1873 station pressure stations. All stations have at least 10 years of data, 40% have more than 50 years of data, and 10% have more than 100 years of data. Spatial coverage is good over most of the globe, particularly for the United States and central Europe. In comparison to other major global data sets, dramatic improvements are evident over South America, Africa, and Asia. The GHCN data base is available as a Numeric Data Package (NDP) from CDIAC. The NDP consists of this document and two magnetic tapes that contain machine-readable data files and accompanying retrieval codes. This document describes, in detail, both the GHCN data base and the contents of the magnetic tap

  17. Assessing students' communication skills: validation of a global rating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheffer, Simone; Muehlinghaus, Isabel; Froehmel, Annette; Ortwein, Heiderose

    2008-12-01

    Communication skills training is an accepted part of undergraduate medical programs nowadays. In addition to learning experiences its importance should be emphasised by performance-based assessment. As detailed checklists have been shown to be not well suited for the assessment of communication skills for different reasons, this study aimed to validate a global rating scale. A Canadian instrument was translated to German and adapted to assess students' communication skills during an end-of-semester-OSCE. Subjects were second and third year medical students at the reformed track of the Charité-Universitaetsmedizin Berlin. Different groups of raters were trained to assess students' communication skills using the global rating scale. Validity testing included concurrent validity and construct validity: Judgements of different groups of raters were compared to expert ratings as a defined gold standard. Furthermore, the amount of agreement between scores obtained with this global rating scale and a different instrument for assessing communication skills was determined. Results show that communication skills can be validly assessed by trained non-expert raters as well as standardised patients using this instrument.

  18. Accuracy assessment of global barotropic ocean tide models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stammer, D.; Ray, R. D.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2014-01-01

    The accuracy of state-of-the-art global barotropic tide models is assessed using bottom pressure data, coastal tide gauges, satellite altimetry, various geodetic data on Antarctic ice shelves, and independent tracked satellite orbit perturbations. Tide models under review include empirical, purel...

  19. Limitless Learning: Assessing Social Media Use for Global Workplace Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breunig, Karl Joachim

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This empirical paper aims to assess how social media can foster workplace learning within a globally dispersed project environment. In general, there are few studies on the use of social media in organizations, and many of these emphasize on issues related to knowledge transfer. Although learning traditionally has been as acquisition of…

  20. Assessing tourism's global environmental impact 1900–2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gössling, Stefan; Peeters, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This paper pioneers the assessment of tourism's total global resource use, including its fossil fuel consumption, associated CO2 emissions, fresh water, land, and food use. As tourism is a dynamic growth system, characterized by rapidly increasing tourist numbers, understanding its pas

  1. Taking New Historical Research into the Classroom: Getting Medieval (and Global) at Key Stage 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, John; Gimson, David

    2014-01-01

    Although history teachers frequently work with academic historical writing, direct face-to-face encounters with academic historians are rare in secondary history classrooms. This article reports a collaboration between an academic historian and a history teacher that aimed to engage 13-14 year-old pupils with developments in contemporary…

  2. Fourth Graders Use Historical Documents and Learn Citizenship and Global Awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Dianne

    1991-01-01

    Describes teaching children about historical documents as a way of illustrating the reasons behind U.S. government. Explains that the course examines the U.S. Constitution, Magna Carta, Mayflower Compact, and Bill of Rights. Argues that children have firm opinions about fairness and justice. Describes a project comparing U.S. government with that…

  3. Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng;

    2016-01-01

    Summary Canopy height is a key factor that affects carbon storage, vegetation productivity and biodiversity in forests, as well as an indicator of key processes such as biomass allocation. However, global variation in forest canopy height and its determinants are poorly known. We used global data...

  4. International Global Crop Condition Assessments in the framework of GEOGLAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Vermote, E.; Whitcraft, A. K.; Claverie, M.

    2013-12-01

    The Group on Earth Observations (partnership of governments and international organizations) developed the Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative in response to the growing calls for improved agricultural information. The goal of GEOGLAM is to strengthen the international community's capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate forecasts of agricultural production at national, regional and global scales through the use of Earth observations. This initiative is designed to build on existing agricultural monitoring initiatives at national, regional and global levels and to enhance and strengthen them through international networking, operationally focused research, and data/method sharing. GEOGLAM was adopted by the G20 as part of the action plan on food price volatility and agriculture and is being implemented through building on the extensive GEO Agricultural Community of Practice (CoP) that was initiated in 2007 and includes key national and international agencies, organizations, and universities involved in agricultural monitoring. One of the early GEOGLAM activities is to provide harmonized global crop outlooks that offer timely qualitative consensus information on crop status and prospects. This activity is being developed in response to a request from the G-20 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and is implemented within the global monitoring systems component of GEOGLAM. The goal is to develop a transparent, international, multi-source, consensus assessment of crop growing conditions, status, and agro-climatic conditions, likely to impact global production. These assessments are focused on the four primary crop types (corn, wheat, soy and rice) within the main agricultural producing regions of the world. The GEOGLAM approach is to bring together international experts from global, regional and national monitoring systems that can share and discuss information from a variety of independent complementary sources in

  5. A new global geomagnetic model based on archeomagnetic, volcanic and historical records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneitz, Patrick; Leonhardt, Roman; Fabian, Karl

    2016-04-01

    The major challenge of geomagnetic field reconstruction lies in the inhomogeneous spatio-temporal distribution of the available data and their highly variable quality. Paleo- and archeomagnetic records provide information about the ancient geomagnetic field beyond the historical period. Typically these data types have larger errors than their historical counterparts, and investigated materials and applied experimental methods potentially bias field readings. Input data for the modelling approach were extracted from available collections of archeomagnetic, volcanic and historical records, which were integrated into a single database along with associated meta-data. The used iterative Bayesian inversion scheme targets the implementation of reliable error treatments, which allows to combine the different data types. The proposed model is scrutinized by carrying out tests with artificial records. Records are synthesized using a known field evolution generated by a geodynamo model showing realistic energy characteristics. Using the artificial field, a synthetic data set is generated that exactly mirrors the existing measured records in all meta-data, but provides data that would have been observed if the artificial field would have been real. After inversion of the synthetic data, the comparison of known artificial Gauss coefficients and modelled ones allows for the verification of the applied modelling strategy as well as for the examination of the potential and limits of the current data compilation.

  6. Exploring the Potential Impacts of Historic Volcanic Eruptions on the Contemporary Global Food System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, Michael J.; Chon, S.; Wada, Y.

    2015-01-01

    A better understanding of volcanic impacts on crops is urgently needed, as volcanic eruptions and the associated climate anomalies can cause unanticipated shocks to food production. Such shocks are a major concern given the fragility of the global food system.

  7. Comparison of Mediterranean Pteropod Shell Biometrics and Ultrastructure from Historical (1910 and 1921) and Present Day (2012) Samples Provides Baseline for Monitoring Effects of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bijma, Jelle

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic carbon perturbation has caused decreases in seawater pH and increases in global temperatures since the start of the 20th century. The subsequent lowering of the saturation state of CaCO3 may make the secretion of skeletons more problematic for marine calcifiers. As organisms that precipitate thin aragonite shells, thecosome pteropods have been identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Coupled with their global distribution, this makes them ideal for use as sentinel organisms. Recent studies have highlighted shell dissolution as a potential indicator of ocean acidification; however, this metric is not applicable for monitoring pH changes in supersaturated basins. In this study, the novel approach of high resolution computed tomography (CT) scanning was used to produce quantitative 3-dimensional renderings pteropod shells to assess the potential of using this method to monitor small changes in shell biometrics that may be driven by climate change drivers. An ontogenetic analysis of the shells of Cavolinia inflexa and Styliola subula collected from the Mediterranean was used to identify suitable monitoring metrics. Modern samples were then compared to historical samples of the same species, collected during the Mediterranean leg of the Thor (1910) and Dana (1921) cruises to assess whether any empirical differences could be detected. Shell densities were calculated and scanning electron microscopy was used to compare the aragonite crystal morphology. pH for the collection years was hind-cast using temperature and salinity time series with atmospheric CO2 concentrations from ice core data. Historical samples of S. subula were thicker than S. subula shells of the same size from 2012 and C. inflexa shells collected in 1910 were significantly denser than those from 2012. These results provide a baseline for future work to develop monitoring techniques for climate change in the oceans using the novel approach of high-resolution CT

  8. A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature

    CERN Document Server

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    Herein we show that the historical records of mid-latitude auroras from 1700 to 1966 present oscillations with periods of about 9, 10-11, 20-21, 30 and 60 years. The same frequencies are found in proxy and instrumental global surface temperature records since 1650 and 1850, respectively and in several planetary and solar records. Thus, the aurora records reveal a physical link between climate change and astronomical oscillations. Likely, there exists a modulation of the cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth and/or of the electric properties of the ionosphere. The latter, in turn, have the potentiality of modulating the global cloud cover that ultimately drives the climate oscillations through albedo oscillations. In particular, a quasi 60-year large cycle is quite evident since 1650 in all climate and astronomical records herein studied, which also include an historical record of meteorite fall in China from 619 to 1943. These findings support the thesis that climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. We ...

  9. Assessing Global Mercury Cycling and Trends in the Context of the Minamata Convention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selin, N. E.; Song, S.; Giang, A.

    2015-12-01

    We draw upon recent modeling work to reassess the global biogeochemical cycle of mercury in the context of scientific and monitoring challenges in implementing the Minamata Convention. Mercury that cycles between the atmosphere and the land and ocean surface originates from anthropogenic activities (both present and historical) and from natural sources. The timescales of mercury cycling are poorly constrained, and better knowledge of these would allow us to understand trends and responses to policies. We synthesize information from a global suite of observations to provide improved constraints on the global (past and present) mercury cycle and trends. We project future mercury emissions under policy scenarios consistent with the Minamata Convention, and assess their impacts on atmospheric concentrations, deposition, and the global biogeochemical cycle. We examine the importance of uncertainties, and identify key uncertainties in measurements and our understanding of atmospheric chemistry, ecosystem processes and human responses that affect our ability to link emissions to impacts. Finally, we draw conclusions about the ability for currently-available measurements and networks to evaluate levels and trends, and draw lessons for policy implementation.

  10. Information technologies for global resources management and environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, A.P.; Wang, Hua.

    1992-01-01

    Recent advances in computer and communications technologies offer unprecedented opportunities to develop sophisticated information resources management systems for global resources management and environment assessment in an efficient, effective, and systematic manner. In this paper, the emerging global energy and environmental issues are identified. Since satellite-based remote sensing systems are becoming increasingly available and produce massive data collections, the utilization of imaging processing techniques and their applications for regional and global resources management and environmental studies are described. Interoperability and interconnectivity among heterogeneous computer systems are major issues in designing a totally integrated, multimedia-based, information resources management system that operates in a networking environment. Discussions of the future technology trends are focused on a number of emerging information management technologies and communications standards which will aid in achieving seamless system integration and offer user-friendly operations. It can be foreseen that advances in computer and communications technologies, increasingly sophisticated image processing techniques and Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and the development of globally comprehensive data bases will bring global visualization'' onto multimedia desktop computers before the end of this decade.

  11. Information technologies for global resources management and environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, A.P.; Wang, Hua

    1992-09-01

    Recent advances in computer and communications technologies offer unprecedented opportunities to develop sophisticated information resources management systems for global resources management and environment assessment in an efficient, effective, and systematic manner. In this paper, the emerging global energy and environmental issues are identified. Since satellite-based remote sensing systems are becoming increasingly available and produce massive data collections, the utilization of imaging processing techniques and their applications for regional and global resources management and environmental studies are described. Interoperability and interconnectivity among heterogeneous computer systems are major issues in designing a totally integrated, multimedia-based, information resources management system that operates in a networking environment. Discussions of the future technology trends are focused on a number of emerging information management technologies and communications standards which will aid in achieving seamless system integration and offer user-friendly operations. It can be foreseen that advances in computer and communications technologies, increasingly sophisticated image processing techniques and Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and the development of globally comprehensive data bases will bring ``global visualization`` onto multimedia desktop computers before the end of this decade.

  12. Assessing global resource utilization efficiency in the industrial sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Marc A

    2013-09-01

    Designing efficient energy systems, which also meet economic, environmental and other objectives and constraints, is a significant challenge. In a world with finite natural resources and large energy demands, it is important to understand not just actual efficiencies, but also limits to efficiency, as the latter identify margins for efficiency improvement. Energy analysis alone is inadequate, e.g., it yields energy efficiencies that do not provide limits to efficiency. To obtain meaningful and useful efficiencies for energy systems, and to clarify losses, exergy analysis is a beneficial and useful tool. Here, the global industrial sector and industries within it are assessed by using energy and exergy methods. The objective is to improve the understanding of the efficiency of global resource use in the industrial sector and, with this information, to facilitate the development, prioritization and ultimate implementation of rational improvement options. Global energy and exergy flow diagrams for the industrial sector are developed and overall efficiencies for the global industrial sector evaluated as 51% based on energy and 30% based on exergy. Consequently, exergy analysis indicates a less efficient picture of energy use in the global industrial sector than does energy analysis. A larger margin for improvement exists from an exergy perspective, compared to the overly optimistic margin indicated by energy.

  13. The ISA-MIP Historical Eruption SO2 Emissions Assessment (HErSEA): an intercomparison for interactive stratospheric aerosol models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Graham; Dhomse, Sandip; Sheng, Jianxiong; Mills, Mike

    2016-04-01

    ). To allow the global variation in size distribution to also be intercompared, models will also diagnose 3D-monthly effective radius and integrated concentrations of particles with radius larger than 10nm, 150nm and 500nm. The mini-ensemble is designed to be straighforward to assess several historical major eruptions and will be a precursor to the larger perturbed parameter ensemble study of the Pinatubo eruption (PoEMS) which will more rigorously assess sources of uncertainty in volcanic forcings simulated by the different models.

  14. Historical Land-Cover Change and Land-Use Conversions Global Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A set of three estimates of land-cover types and annual transformations of land use are provided on a global 0.5 x0.5 degree lat/lon grid at annual time steps. The...

  15. Historical record of Landsat global coverage: mission operations, NSLRSDA, and International Cooperator stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goward, Samuel; Arvidson, Terry; Williams, Darrel; Faundeen, John; Irons, James; Franks, Shannon

    2006-01-01

    The long-term, 34 year record of global Landsat remote sensing data is a critical resource to study the Earth system and human impacts on this system. The National Satellite Land Remote Sensing Data Archive (NSLRSDA) is charged by public law to: “maintain a permanent, comprehensive Government archive of global Landsat and other land remote sensing data for long-term monitoring and study of the changing global environment” (U.S. Congress, 1992). The advisory committee for NSLRSDA requested a detailed analysis of observation coverage within the U.S. Landsat holdings, as well as that acquired and held by International Cooperator (IC) stations. Our analyses, to date, have found gaps of varying magnitude in U.S. holdings of Landsat global coverage data, which appear to reflect technical or administrative variations in mission operations. In many cases it may be possible to partially fill these gaps in U.S. holdings through observations that were acquired and are now being held at International Cooperator stations.

  16. Spatial database for a global assessment of undiscovered copper resources: Chapter Z in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dicken, Connie L.; Dunlap, Pamela; Parks, Heather L.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Zientek, Michael L.; Zientek, Michael L.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Johnson, Kathleen M.

    2016-07-13

    As part of the first-ever U.S. Geological Survey global assessment of undiscovered copper resources, data common to several regional spatial databases published by the U.S. Geological Survey, including one report from Finland and one from Greenland, were standardized, updated, and compiled into a global copper resource database. This integrated collection of spatial databases provides location, geologic and mineral resource data, and source references for deposits, significant prospects, and areas permissive for undiscovered deposits of both porphyry copper and sediment-hosted copper. The copper resource database allows for efficient modeling on a global scale in a geographic information system (GIS) and is provided in an Esri ArcGIS file geodatabase format.

  17. Five-Year NRHP Re-Evaluation of Historic Buildings Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ullrich, R A; Heidecker, K R

    2011-09-12

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) 'Draft Programmatic Agreement among the Department of Energy and the California State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Operation of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory' requires a review and re-evaluation of the eligibility of laboratory properties for the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) every five years. The original evaluation was published in 2005; this report serves as the first five-year re-evaluation. This re-evaluation includes consideration of changes within LLNL to management, to mission, and to the built environment. it also determines the status of those buildings, objects, and districts that were recommended as NRHP-eligible in the 2005 report. Buildings that were omitted from the earlier building list, those that have reached 50 years of age since the original assessment, and new buildings are also addressed in the re-evaluation.

  18. Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Richard; Schulp, Catharina J E; Hengeveld, Geerten M; Verburg, Peter H; Clevers, Jan G P W; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Herold, Martin

    2016-07-01

    Legacy effects of land cover/use on carbon fluxes require considering both present and past land cover/use change dynamics. To assess past land use dynamics, model-based reconstructions of historic land cover/use are needed. Most historic reconstructions consider only the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). Studies about the impact of gross and net land change accounting methods on the carbon balance are still lacking. In this study, we assessed historic changes in carbon in soils for five land cover/use types and of carbon in above-ground biomass of forests. The assessment focused on Europe for the period 1950 to 2010 with decadal time steps at 1-km spatial resolution using a bookkeeping approach. To assess the implications of gross land change data, we also used net land changes for comparison. Main contributors to carbon sequestration between 1950 and 2010 were afforestation and cropland abandonment leading to 14.6 PgC sequestered carbon (of which 7.6 PgC was in forest biomass). Sequestration was highest for old-growth forest areas. A sequestration dip was reached during the 1970s due to changes in forest management practices. Main contributors to carbon emissions were deforestation (1.7 PgC) and stable cropland areas on peaty soils (0.8 PgC). In total, net fluxes summed up to 203 TgC yr(-1) (98 TgC yr(-1) in forest biomass and 105 TgC yr(-1) in soils). For areas that were subject to land changes in both reconstructions (35% of total area), the differences in carbon fluxes were about 68%. Overall for Europe the difference between accounting for either gross or net land changes led to 7% difference (up to 11% per decade) in carbon fluxes with systematically higher fluxes for gross land change data.

  19. GIS mapping Refuge pasture boundaries and applying historic domestic livestock use to accurately assess the overall use of Refuge habitats

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Final report for a project at Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge to map and assess pasture fence boundaries and historic domestic cattle use in those...

  20. Assessment of global phase uncertainty in case-control studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Houwelingen Hans C

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In haplotype-based candidate gene studies a problem is that the genotype data are unphased, which results in haplotype ambiguity. The measure 1 quantifies haplotype predictability from genotype data. It is computed for each individual haplotype, and for a measure of global relative efficiency a minimum value is suggested. Alternatively, we developed methods directly based on the information content of haplotype frequency estimates to obtain global relative efficiency measures: and based on A- and D-optimality, respectively. All three methods are designed for single populations; they can be applied in cases only, controls only or the whole data. Therefore they are not necessarily optimal for haplotype testing in case-control studies. Results A new global relative efficiency measure was derived to maximize power of a simple test statistic that compares haplotype frequencies in cases and controls. Application to real data showed that our proposed method gave a clear and summarizing measure for the case-control study conducted. Additionally this measure might be used for selection of individuals, who have the highest potential for improving power by resolving phase ambiguity. Conclusion Instead of using relative efficiency measure for cases only, controls only or their combined data, we link uncertainty measure to case-control studies directly. Hence, our global efficiency measure might be useful to assess whether data are informative or have enough power for estimation of a specific haplotype risk.

  1. Assessment of Global Annual Atmospheric Energy Balance from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Bing; Stackhouse, Paul; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Hu, Yongxiang; Sun, Wenbo; Fan, Tai-Fang (Alice); Hinkelman, Laura

    2008-01-01

    Global atmospheric energy balance is one of the fundamental processes for the earth's climate system. This study uses currently available satellite data sets of radiative energy at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface and latent and sensible heat over oceans for the year 2000 to assess the global annual energy budget. Over land, surface radiation data are used to constrain assimilated results and to force the radiation, turbulent heat, and heat storage into balance due to a lack of observation-based turbulent heat flux estimations. Global annual means of the TOA net radiation obtained from both direct measurements and calculations are close to zero. The net radiative energy fluxes into the surface and the surface latent heat transported into the atmosphere are about 113 and 86 Watts per square meter, respectively. The estimated atmospheric and surface heat imbalances are about -8 9 Watts per square meter, values that are within the uncertainties of surface radiation and sea surface turbulent flux estimates and likely systematic biases in the analyzed observations. The potential significant additional absorption of solar radiation within the atmosphere suggested by previous studies does not appear to be required to balance the energy budget the spurious heat imbalances in the current data are much smaller (about half) than those obtained previously and debated at about a decade ago. Progress in surface radiation and oceanic turbulent heat flux estimations from satellite measurements significantly reduces the bias errors in the observed global energy budgets of the climate system.

  2. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP - 1992/1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Giardini

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations, recognizing natural disasters as a major threat to human life and development, designed the 1990-1999 period as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR; UN Res. 42/169/ 1987. Among the IDNDR Demonstration Projects is the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP and implemented in the 1992-1999 period. In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation. To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP established initially a mosaic of regions and multinational test areas, then expanded to cover whole continents and finally the globe. The GSHAP Global Map of Seismic Hazard integrates the results obtained in the regional areas and depicts Peak-Ground-Acceleration (PGA with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years. All regional results and the Global Map of Seismic Hazard are published in 1999 and available on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.

  3. Global Assessment of Bisphenol A in the Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jone Corrales

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Because bisphenol A (BPA is a high production volume chemical, we examined over 500 peer-reviewed studies to understand its global distribution in effluent discharges, surface waters, sewage sludge, biosolids, sediments, soils, air, wildlife, and humans. Bisphenol A was largely reported from urban ecosystems in Asia, Europe, and North America; unfortunately, information was lacking from large geographic areas, megacities, and developing countries. When sufficient data were available, probabilistic hazard assessments were performed to understand global environmental quality concerns. Exceedances of Canadian Predicted No Effect Concentrations for aquatic life were >50% for effluents in Asia, Europe, and North America but as high as 80% for surface water reports from Asia. Similarly, maximum concentrations of BPA in sediments from Asia were higher than Europe. Concentrations of BPA in wildlife, mostly for fish, ranged from 0.2 to 13 000 ng/g. We observed 60% and 40% exceedences of median levels by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in Europe and Asia, respectively. These findings highlight the utility of coordinating global sensing of environmental contaminants efforts through integration of environmental monitoring and specimen banking to identify regions for implementation of more robust environmental assessment and management programs.

  4. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  5. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  6. Global and Regional Variations in Mean Temperature and Warm Extremes in Large-Member Historical AGCM Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Y.; Shiogama, H.; Imada, Y.; Mori, M.; Arakawa, O.; Mizuta, R.; Yoshida, K.; Ishii, M.; Watanabe, M.; Kimoto, M.; Ueda, H.

    2015-12-01

    Frequency of heat extremes during the summer season has increased continuously since the late 20th century despite the global warming hiatus. In previous studies, anthropogenic influences, natural variation in sea surface temperature (SST), and internal atmospheric variabilities are suggested to be factors contributing to the increase in the frequency of warm extremes. Here 100-member ensemble historical simulations were performed (called "database for Probabilistic Description of Future climate"; d4PDF) to examine physical mechanisms responsible for the increasing hot summers and attribute to the anthropogenic influences or natural climate variability. 60km resolution MRI-AGCM ensemble simulations can reproduce historical variations in the mean temperature and warm extremes. Natural SST variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans contribute to the decadal variation in the frequency of hot summers in the Northern Hemisphere middle latitude. For example, the surface temperature over western North America, including California, is largely influenced by anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern associated with Pacific SST variability. Future projections based on anomalous SST patterns derived from coupled climate model simulations will also be introduced.

  7. Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  8. Historical Background on the Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RECHARD, ROBERT P

    1999-10-21

    In 1979, six years after selecting the Delaware Basin as a potential disposal area, Congress authorized the U.S. Department of Energy to build the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, as a Research and development facility for the safe management storage, and disposal of waste contaminated with transuranic radioisotopes. In 1998, 19 years after authorization and after site selection, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified that the WIPP disposal system complied with its regulations. The EPA's decision was primarily based on the results from a performance. assessment conducted in 1996, which is summarized in this special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety. This performance assessment was the culmination of four preliminary performance assessments conducted between 1989 and 1992. This paper provides a historical setting and context for how the performance of the deep geologic repository at the WIPP was analyzed. Also included is background on political forces acting on the project.

  9. Impact of global seismicity on sea level change assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Melini, D

    2005-01-01

    We analyze the effect of seismic activity on sealevel variations, by computing the time-dependent vertical crustal movement and geoid change due to coseismic deformations and postseismic relaxation effects. Seismic activity can affect both the absolute sealevel, by changing the Earth gravity field and hence the geoid height, and the relative sealevel, i.e. the radial distance between seafloor and geoid level. By using comprehensive seismic catalogues we assess the net effect of seismicity on tidal relative sealevel measurements as well as on the global oceanic surfaces, and we obtain an estimate of absolute sealevel variations of seismic origin. Our results confirm that, on a global scale, most of the signal is associated with few giant thrust events, and that RSL estimates obtained using tide-gauge data can be sensibly affected by the seismic driven sealevel signal. The recent measures of sealevel obtained by satellite altimetry show a wide regional variation of sealevel trends over the oceanic surfaces, wit...

  10. Lithium Resources and Production: Critical Assessment and Global Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve H. Mohr

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper critically assesses if accessible lithium resources are sufficient for expanded demand due to lithium battery electric vehicles. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR of lithium globally were estimated at between 19.3 (Case 1 and 55.0 (Case 3 Mt Li; Best Estimate (BE was 23.6 Mt Li. The Mohr 2010 model was modified to project lithium supply. The Case 1 URR scenario indicates sufficient lithium for a 77% maximum penetration of lithium battery electric vehicles in 2080 whereas supply is adequate to beyond 2200 in the Case 3 URR scenario. Global lithium demand approached a maximum of 857 kt Li/y, with a 100% penetration of lithium vehicles, 3.5 people per car and 10 billion population.

  11. Assessing bias associated with geocoding of historical residence in epidemiology research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Daikwon; Bonner, Matthew R; Nie, Jing; Freudenheim, Jo L

    2013-05-01

    The use of geocoded historical residence as proxy for retrospective assessment of exposure in early life is increasing in epidemiological studies of chronic health outcomes. Dealing with historical residence poses challenges, primarily due to higher uncertainties associated with data collection and processing. A possible source of bias is connected with the exclusion of subjects, who cannot, for various reasons, be geocoded. We evaluated the potential bias that may arise due to incomplete geocoding, using birth residence data collected as part of a population-based case-control study of breast cancer in western New York state. We found that geocoded and non-geocoded populations did not differ in the distribution of most risk factors compared, and that the geocoding status did not modify the spatial patterns of the study populations. However, the results emphasize the need for epidemiological studies to consider the potential biases that may be introduced by geocoding of historical residence when investigating retrospectively chronic disease and early-life exposure.

  12. Assessing bias associated with geocoding of historical residence in epidemiology research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daikwon Han

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The use of geocoded historical residence as proxy for retrospective assessment of exposure in early life is increasing in epidemiological studies of chronic health outcomes. Dealing with historical residence poses challenges, primarily due to higher uncertainties associated with data collection and processing. A possible source of bias is connected with the exclusion of subjects, who cannot, for various reasons, be geocoded. We evaluated the potential bias that may arise due to incomplete geocoding, using birth residence data collected as part of a population-based case-control study of breast cancer in western New York state. We found that geocoded and non-geocoded populations did not differ in the distribution of most risk factors compared, and that the geocoding status did not modify the spatial patterns of the study populations. However, the results emphasize the need for epidemiological studies to consider the potential biases that may be introduced by geocoding of historical residence when investigating retrospectively chronic disease and early-life exposure.

  13. Enhancing Historical Reasoning: A Strategy Including Formative Assessment with Systematic Continuous Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Sergio; Tirado, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    Learning History promotes students' reasoning. According to Van Drie & Van Boxtel (2008), historical reasoning involves six elements: substantive concepts, metaconcepts, asking historical questions, using sources, contextualization, and argumentation. Although there are didactic strategies that promote historical reasoning, these do not…

  14. Capturing the essence of developing endovascular expertise for the construction of a global assessment instrument

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech, B.; Lönn, L.; Schroeder, T. V.

    2010-01-01

    To explore what characterises the development of endovascular expertise and to construct a novel global assessment instrument.......To explore what characterises the development of endovascular expertise and to construct a novel global assessment instrument....

  15. Extraction and use of historical extreme climate databases for nuclear power plants safety assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Yasser; Bertin, Xavier; Bardet, Lise; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Rebour, Vincent

    2015-04-01

    Safety assessments of nuclear power plants (NPPs) related to natural hazards are a matter of major interest to the nuclear community in France and many European countries. Over the past fewer decades, France has experienced many of these events such as heat waves (2003 and 2006), heavy snowstorms (1958, 1990 and 1992), storms which have given rise to heavy rain and severe floods (1992, 1999, 2010), strong straight-line wind and extreme marine surges (1987, 1999 and 2010) much larger than the other local observations (outliers). These outliers had clearly illustrated the potential to underestimate the extreme surges calculated with the current statistical methods. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical framework and using more reliable databases for the assessment of hazards to design NPPs to low or extremely low probabilities of failure. These databases can be produced by collecting historical information (HI) about severe climatic events occurred over short and long timescales. As a matter of fact, natural hazards such as heat waves, droughts, floods, severe storms and snowstorms have affected France and many European countries since the dawn of time. These events would have been such horrific experiences that if they really occurred, there would be unmistakable traces of them. They must have left clues. These catastrophic events have been unforgettably engraved in people's minds and many of them have been traced in archives and history textbooks. The oldest events have certainly left clues and traces somewhere in the geological layers of the earth or elsewhere. The construction of the historical databases and developing probabilistic approaches capable of integrating them correctly is highly challenging for the scientific community (Translating these geological clues to historical data to build historical databases that can be used by the statistical models is a different

  16. [Globalization and its historical location. Some remarks with the example of Ernst Haeckel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breidbach, Olaf

    2014-01-01

    Globalization, regarded here as the extensive and profound transformation process of modernity, manifests itself to us in the way it impacts the here and now. However, it also has a prehistory with regard to both its anthropogenic effects on nature and intellectual controversies. This prehistory is important for understanding how we deal with this phenomenon. Due to the important roles science plays in the process of globalization and the, in no way insignificant, repercussions it has on the sciences themselves, this article aims to present in detail a prehistory that pointedly illustrates how we perceive our modernity, also with regard to its discrepancies which result from the various underlying conditions. In its attempt to analyze the question of contemporary perception in an exemplary way, the article below looks back at the intellectual situation prevailing around 1900. It aims to clarify lines of influence and controversial issues connected with Ernst Haeckel, particularly in terms of the mutual interconnectedness and influence of intra-academic changes and cultural reflections.

  17. Recovery of Global Surface Weather Observations for Historical Reanalyses and International Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Rob; Compo, Gil; Carton, Jim

    2011-05-01

    Third International Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions Over the Earth Initiative Workshop: Reanalysis and Applications; Baltimore, Maryland, 3-5 November 2010 ; The third Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) workshop advanced the goals of the international ACRE initiative (http://www.met-acre.org/) to undertake and facilitate the recovery of instrumental terrestrial and marine global surface weather observations underpinning global weather reconstructions and reanalyses spanning the past 200-250 years (http://reanalyses.org). The workshop improved integration of the 35-40 ACRE-linked international scientific projects, institutions, and organizations working toward these ends. The meeting highlighted the broad array and international usage of ACRE-facilitated data sets and reanalysis: the International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD; http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds132.0/), the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (http:/icoads.noaa.gov/ICOADS;), and the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR; http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/). The need for more data recovery for all regions of the globe during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries was emphasized. Many regional efforts for such recovery are under way. The Arctic and maritime regions were highlighted as particular areas needing attention. As a result of the meeting, connections with existing projects were made and new efforts were started to address these needs.

  18. A global viability assessment of the European eel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevacqua, Daniele; Melià, Paco; Gatto, Marino; De Leo, Giulio A

    2015-09-01

    The global European eel (Anguilla anguilla) stock is critically endangered according to the IUCN, and the European Commission has urged the development of conservation plans aimed to ensure its viability. However, the complex life cycle of this panmictic species, which reproduces in the open ocean but spends most of its prereproductive life in continental waters (thus embracing a huge geographic range and a variety of habitat types), makes it difficult to assess the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. The interplay between local and global stressors raises intriguing cross-scale conservation challenges that require a comprehensive modelling approach to be addressed. We developed a full life cycle model of the global European eel stock, encompassing both the oceanic and the continental phases of eel's life, and explicitly allowing for spatial heterogeneity in vital rates, availability of suitable habitat and settlement potential via a metapopulation approach. We calibrated the model against a long-term time series of global European eel catches and used it to hindcast the dynamics of the stock in the past and project it over the 21st century under different management scenarios. Although our analysis relies on a number of inevitable simplifying assumptions and on data that may not embrace the whole range of variation in population dynamics at the small spatiotemporal scale, our hindcast is consistent with the general pattern of decline of the stock over recent decades. The results of our projections suggest that (i) habitat loss played a major role in the European eel decline; (ii) the viability of the global stock is at risk if appropriate protection measures are not implemented; (iii) the recovery of spawner escapement requires that fishing mortality is significantly reduced; and (iv) the recovery of recruitment might not be feasible if reproductive output is not enhanced.

  19. Global Aquaculture Performance Index (GAPI: The First Global Environmental Assessment of Marine Fish Farming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenna M.S. Stoner

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available “Sustainable” is among the most sought after of all seafood product adjectives. Ironically it is also one of the most poorly defined and understood. The Global Aquaculture Performance Index (GAPI is the first tool to assess environmental performance of global marine aquaculture production, permitting direct comparison of disparate species, production methods and jurisdictions. Clear patterns emerge from this analysis; significant variation of environmental performance is driven by the species being farmed, significant room for improvement exists across the entire sector, the worst performing players are also the fastest growing, particularly within Asia, and perhaps most importantly, this work highlights the potential trap awaiting policy makers who focus too narrowly on farm production efficiency alone as a solution to diminishing seafood availability.

  20. Correlating regional natural hazards for global reinsurance risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steptoe, Hamish; Maynard, Trevor; Economou, Theo; Fox, Helen; Wallace, Emily; Maisey, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Concurrent natural hazards represent an uncertainty in assessing exposure for the insurance industry. The recently implemented Solvency II Directive requires EU insurance companies to fully understand and justify their capital reserving and portfolio decisions. Lloyd's, the London insurance and reinsurance market, commissioned the Met Office to investigate the dependencies between different global extreme weather events (known to the industry as perils), and the mechanisms for these dependencies, with the aim of helping them assess their compound risk to the exposure of multiple simultaneous hazards. In this work, we base the analysis of hazard-to-hazard dependency on the interaction of different modes of global and regional climate variability. Lloyd's defined 16 key hazard regions, including Australian wildfires, flooding in China and EU windstorms, and we investigate the impact of 10 key climate modes on these areas. We develop a statistical model that facilitates rapid risk assessment whilst allowing for both temporal auto-correlation and, crucially, interdependencies between drivers. The simulator itself is built conditionally using autoregressive regression models for each driver conditional on the others. Whilst the baseline assumption within the (re)insurance industry is that different natural hazards are independent of each other, the assumption of independence of meteorological risks requires greater justification. Although our results suggest that most of the 120 hazard-hazard connections considered are likely to be independent of each other, 13 have significant dependence arising from one or more global modes of climate variability. This allows us to create a matrix of linkages describing the hazard dependency structure that Lloyd's can use to inform their understanding of risk.

  1. Perceived historical drinking norms and current drinking behavior: using the theory of normative social behavior as a framework for assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcioppolo, Nick; Jensen, Jakob D

    2012-01-01

    Social norms are sustained and disseminated, both implicitly and explicitly, through the act of communication. As a result, communication researchers have sought to classify and target normative perceptions to enact social change. In line with this research, the current study investigated whether perceptions of past normative behavior, referred to here as historical norms, were significantly related to current behavior. Using the theory of normative behavior as a guiding framework, two studies were conducted to assess whether college student drinking behavior was related to one of two perceived historical drinking norms measures: historical consumption norms (i.e., the perceived percentage of students who drank over time) and historical tradition norms (i.e., the perception of drinking as a university tradition). Study 1 revealed that although historical consumption norms was not directly related to drinking behavior, it moderated the effect of descriptive norms on drinking behavior (p = .03). A full assessment of the theory of normative social behavior was conducted in study 2 to determine whether perceived historical drinking norms influenced behavior above and beyond both descriptive and injunctive norms. Findings demonstrated that historical tradition norms were significantly related to drinking behavior (p = .001), and marginally moderated the relationship between descriptive norms and drinking behavior (p = .09). These findings offer preliminary evidence in support of measuring perceived historical drinking norms in future campaigns and interventions designed to reduce drinking behavior.

  2. Global Assessment in the World Bank Education Strategy 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher S. Collins

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the language of global accountability as well as the recommended tools used to assess the quality of higher education as noted in the new World Bank Education Strategy 2020. This article concludes that intended learning outcomes often reflect ideological dispositions and when imposed on countries considered “developing,” have the potential to replicate the pattern of placing greater value on knowledge produced in “developed” countries. This trend may continue to relegate developing countries to the role of consumers in the knowledge economy.

  3. The global historical and future economic loss and cost of earthquakes during the production of adaptive worldwide economic fragility functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    macroseismic intensity, capital stock estimate, GDP estimate, year and the combined seismic building index (a created combination of the global seismic code index, building practice factor, building age and infrastructure vulnerability). The analysis provided three key results: a) The production of economic fragility functions from the 1900-2008 events showed very good correlation to the economic loss and cost from earthquakes from 2009-2013, in real-time. This methodology has been extended to other natural disaster types (typhoon, flood, drought). b) The reanalysis of historical earthquake events in order to check associated historical loss and costs versus the expected exposure in terms of intensities. The 1939 Chillan, 1948 Turkmenistan, 1950 Iran, 1972 Managua, 1980 Western Nepal and 1992 Erzincan earthquake events were seen as huge outliers compared with the modelled capital stock and GDP and thus additional studies were undertaken to check the original loss results. c) A worldwide GIS layer database of capital stock (gross and net), GDP, infrastructure age and economic indices over the period 1900-2013 have been created in conjunction with the CATDAT database in order to define correct economic loss and costs.

  4. An Integrated Assessment of Investments towards Global Water Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea M. Bassi

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available To date there has been limited research on integrated water resource management, specifically regarding investments, from a global perspective, largely due to the complexity of the problem and to generally local water management practices. Water demand and supply are very often affected by international factors and with global climate change, population growth and increasing consumption, water management is now more than ever a global issue. This paper gives an overview of current and impending water problems while assessing investment needs for integrated water management as a possible solution to projected water challenges. The analysis compares a business as usual case (BAU to a scenario in which investments improve water efficiency use across sectors to curb demand, increase innovative supply from desalination and enhance conventional water resources management measures. System dynamics modeling is employed to represent the structural factors influencing water demand and supply in the context of an integrated framework including cross-sectoral linkages. The analysis confirms that sustainable water management is feasible, but it requires investments in the range of $145 billion per year between 2011 and 2050 (0.16% of GDP or $17/person/year and timely, effective action.

  5. Sustainability assessment, rating systems and historical buildings Case study: Rehabilitated construction in a university site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadrykia Somayeh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the relationship between the indicators and different factors that “rating systems for green projects” concentrates on, and principles and factors considered in the rehabilitation of historical buildings. In recent years, different methods and systems concerned and improved for assessing environmental sustainability. LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design and BREEAM (Building Research Establishment (BRE Environmental Assessment Method are two most commonly used rating systems, established in U.S and UK. These systems comprise some categories and different factors to achieve environmentally responsible design. Firstly, this study focuses on the list of rating systems indicators and criteria. Secondly this paper investigates a historical rehabilitated building in the site of Tabriz Art University, as a case study and has tried to compile its green design elements. Finally, this work intends to compare mentioned elements with indicators and factors of building rating systems. Findings of the study revealed that “Materials and Resources”, “indoor environmental quality” and also “Sustainable Sites” ,the most significant indicator of rating systems, had major and important role in the rehabilitation of the building. Beyond this materials’ life cycle was considerable in construction.

  6. Environmental Engineering Curricula assessment in the global world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, Enrica; Catelani, Marcantonio; Manfrida, Giampaolo; Valdiserri, Juna

    2014-05-01

    Environmental engineers are technicians with specific expertise on the sustainability of human presence in the environment. Among other global dilemmas, to the environmental engineers it is often demanded to be able in developing systematic, innovative solutions in order to simultaneously meet water and energy needs, to build resilience to natural and technological disasters, to more accurately gauge and manage countries' greenhouse gas emissions. The general objectives of the Environmental Engineers are to establish actions of environmental sustainability as well as to verify progress toward global goals or international commitments. The globalization of challenges and problems to be faced, leads, in general, to the globalization of the engineering profession. In particular, since the environmental issues are without boundaries, and many and different are the involved professions and the competences, the environmental engineer must have a multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary approach to adequately answer to the demand of technical innovative knowledge at global scale. The environmental engineers, more and more, are involved in international projects were the effective collaboration requires not only the capacity to communicate in a common technical language, but also the assurance of an adequate and common level of technical competences, knowledge and understanding. The Europe-based EUR ACE system, currently operated by ENAEE - European Network for Accreditation of Engineering Education, can represent the proper framework and accreditation system in order to provide a set of measures to assess the quality of engineering degree programmes in Europe and abroad. In the global frame of the knowledge triangle: education-innovation-research, the accreditation and quality assurance of engineering curricula in Europe is discussed with reference to the Environmental engineering curricula, of the 1st and 2nd cycle, based on the European Credit Transfer System and in

  7. 全球地面降水月值历史数据集研制%Development of a global historic monthly mean precipitation dataset

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨溯; 徐文慧; 许艳; 李庆祥

    2016-01-01

    全球降水历史数据是开展气候、水循环等研究的基础。收集整理全球12个数据源降水历史月值资料,通过站号、站名甄别不同数据源中相同台站,对344个通过相关系数、一致率、均值 t 检验、方差 F 检验的台站多源资料进行拼接,尽可能多地融合各套数据产品优势,最终形成全球降水历史月值数据集(CMA Global PrecipitationV1.0,CGP)。数据集重点解决当前国际数据产品在东亚地区站点稀少、同时应用多套数据应用门槛较高等问题。数据集收录3.1万个台站共计1.87×107组月降水记录,4152个台站序列长度达百年。与美国大气海洋局(NOAA)的全球降水数据集(GHCN-M V2.0)对比,CGP 新增1万个站点、0.5×107组有效观测记录和1030条百年序列,其中141条百年序列通过多源整合技术获取。CGP 的站点和数据量优势主要体现在东亚、东欧、西伯利亚等站点稀疏地区。基于 CGP 分析的全球降水时空特征与国际同类产品的结果较一致。新增的数据虽然没有改变全球降水分布的总体特征,但对区域性的百年降水变化检测有一定影响。基于 CGP 的全球降水百年序列结果显示,20世纪前半叶全球降水量偏小,近20年是1900年以来全球降水量最大的时期,各纬度带、各个国家或地区的降水长期变化趋势呈现显著的差异。%Global historic precipitation dataset is the base for climate and water cycle research.There have been several global historic land surface precipitation datasets developed by international data centers such as NCDC (National Climatic Data Cen-ter),ECA&D (European Climate Assessment & Dataset)project team,and Met Office etc.,but so far there are no such data-sets developed by any research institute in China.In addition,each dataset has its own focus of study region,and the existing global precipitation datasets only contain sparse

  8. A global historical ozone data set and signatures of El Niño and the 11-yr solar cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Brönnimann

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a vertically resolved (with pressure as the vertical coordinate zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1900 to 2008, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM simulations with historical total ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea-surface temperatures, and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The historical total ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach (Ensemble Square Root Filter is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. While the observations provide little additional skill at the full spatio-temporal resolution, they do increase the skill at lower spatio-temporal resolutions and specifically for total ozone. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. However, a more pronounced effect of ENSO and slightly weaker effect of the 11 yr solar cycle are found in the earlier period. Several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0 are discussed.

  9. Using the CLM Crop Model to assess the impacts of changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Geographic Distribution on Historical and Future Crop Yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P.

    2015-12-01

    Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate

  10. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  11. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3 and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to

  12. A global call for action to include gender in research impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovseiko, Pavel V; Greenhalgh, Trisha; Adam, Paula; Grant, Jonathan; Hinrichs-Krapels, Saba; Graham, Kathryn E; Valentine, Pamela A; Sued, Omar; Boukhris, Omar F; Al Olaqi, Nada M; Al Rahbi, Idrees S; Dowd, Anne-Maree; Bice, Sara; Heiden, Tamika L; Fischer, Michael D; Dopson, Sue; Norton, Robyn; Pollitt, Alexandra; Wooding, Steven; Balling, Gert V; Jakobsen, Ulla; Kuhlmann, Ellen; Klinge, Ineke; Pololi, Linda H; Jagsi, Reshma; Smith, Helen Lawton; Etzkowitz, Henry; Nielsen, Mathias W; Carrion, Carme; Solans-Domènech, Maite; Vizcaino, Esther; Naing, Lin; Cheok, Quentin H N; Eckelmann, Baerbel; Simuyemba, Moses C; Msiska, Temwa; Declich, Giovanna; Edmunds, Laurel D; Kiparoglou, Vasiliki; Buchan, Alison M J; Williamson, Catherine; Lord, Graham M; Channon, Keith M; Surender, Rebecca; Buchan, Alastair M

    2016-07-19

    Global investment in biomedical research has grown significantly over the last decades, reaching approximately a quarter of a trillion US dollars in 2010. However, not all of this investment is distributed evenly by gender. It follows, arguably, that scarce research resources may not be optimally invested (by either not supporting the best science or by failing to investigate topics that benefit women and men equitably). Women across the world tend to be significantly underrepresented in research both as researchers and research participants, receive less research funding, and appear less frequently than men as authors on research publications. There is also some evidence that women are relatively disadvantaged as the beneficiaries of research, in terms of its health, societal and economic impacts. Historical gender biases may have created a path dependency that means that the research system and the impacts of research are biased towards male researchers and male beneficiaries, making it inherently difficult (though not impossible) to eliminate gender bias. In this commentary, we - a group of scholars and practitioners from Africa, America, Asia and Europe - argue that gender-sensitive research impact assessment could become a force for good in moving science policy and practice towards gender equity. Research impact assessment is the multidisciplinary field of scientific inquiry that examines the research process to maximise scientific, societal and economic returns on investment in research. It encompasses many theoretical and methodological approaches that can be used to investigate gender bias and recommend actions for change to maximise research impact. We offer a set of recommendations to research funders, research institutions and research evaluators who conduct impact assessment on how to include and strengthen analysis of gender equity in research impact assessment and issue a global call for action.

  13. Historical advances in the study of global terrestrial soil organic carbon sequestration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, C; Bernoux, M

    2008-01-01

    This paper serves two purposes: it provides a summarized scientific history of carbon sequestration in relation to the soil-plant system and gives a commentary on organic wastes and SOC sequestration. The concept of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration has its roots in: (i) the experimental work of Lundegårdh, particularly his in situ measurements of CO2 fluxes at the soil-plant interface (1924, 1927, 1930); (ii) the first estimates of SOC stocks at the global level made by Waksman [Waksman, S.A., 1938. Humus. Origin, Chemical Composition and Importance in Nature, second ed. revised. Williams and Wilkins, Baltimore, p. 526] and Rubey [Rubey, W.W., 1951. Geologic history of sea water. Bulletin of the Geological Society of America 62, 1111-1148]; (iii) the need for models dealing with soil organic matter (SOM) or SOC dynamics beginning with a conceptual SOM model by De Saussure (1780-1796) followed by the mathematical models of Jenny [Jenny, H., 1941. Factors of Soil Formation: a System of Quantitative Pedology. Dover Publications, New York, p. 288], Hénin and Dupuis [Hénin, S., Dupuis, M., 1945. Essai de bilan de la matière organique. Annales d'Agronomie 15, 17-29] and more recently the RothC [Jenkinson, D.S., Rayner, J.H., 1977. The turnover of soil organic matter in some of the Rothamsted classical experiments. Soil Science 123 (5), 298-305] and Century [Parton, W.J., Schimel, D.S., Cole, C.V., Ojima, D.S., 1987. Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in great plains grasslands. Soil Science Society of America Journal 51 (5), 1173-1179] models. The establishment of a soil C sequestration balance is not straightforward and depends greatly on the origin and the composition of organic matter that is to be returned to the system. Wastes, which are important sources of organic carbon for soils, are taken as an example. For these organic materials the following factors have to be considered: the presence or absence of fossil C, the potential

  14. The Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) in clinical practice--substance and reliability as judged by intraclass correlations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dyrborg, J; Larsen, F W; Nielsen, S;

    2000-01-01

    Studies on the inter-rater reliability on the Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and the Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) involving different subgroups of 145 outpatients from 4 to 16 years of age showed fair to substantial intraclass correlations of 0.59 to 0.90. Raters...

  15. Historical View of the Influences of Measurement and Writing Theories on the Practice of Writing Assessment in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behizadeh, Nadia; Engelhard, George, Jr.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the interactions among measurement theories, writing theories, and writing assessments in the United States from an historical perspective. The assessment of writing provides a useful framework for examining how theories influence, and in some cases fail to influence actual practice. Two research traditions…

  16. Assessing the impact of vertical land motion on twentieth century global mean sea level estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Thompson, P.; Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Ray, R. D.

    2016-07-01

    Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does not correct other sources of VLM that remain in the tide gauge record. Here we compare Global Positioning System (GPS) VLM estimates at the tide gauge locations to VLM estimates from GIA models, and assess the influence of non-GIA-related VLM on GMSL estimates. We find that the tide gauges, on average, are experiencing positive VLM (i.e., uplift) after removing the known effect of GIA, resulting in an increase of 0.24 ± 0.08 mm yr-1 in GMSL trend estimates from 1900 to present when using GPS-based corrections. While this result is likely dependent on the subset of tide gauges used and the actual corrections used, it does suggest that non-GIA VLM plays a significant role in twentieth century estimates of GMSL. Given the relatively short GPS records used to obtain these VLM estimates, we also estimate the uncertainty in the GMSL trend that results from limited knowledge of non-GIA-related VLM.

  17. Globalization and social inequalities in Europe: assessment and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Brady

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to consider the social cohesion of the European Union which is today subjected to significant constraints by globalization and by the growing economic divergence between member States, especially in the Euro zone. The statistical assessment of this situation allows us to clearly establish the ascent of poverty and exclusion in Europe. The European Commission as well as the civil society is trying to remedy this crisis notably by means of European syndicalism whose propositions are closely analyzed in the following article. That being said, the macro-economic context is very damaged today and it unequally affects the member States of the Euro zone. A strength or even a mutation in European regulation seems necessary to promote a new economic and social regime in the Union.

  18. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew C. Fisher

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

  19. Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Gambhir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2, to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.

  20. Assessment of global grey water footprint of major food crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hong; Liu, Wenfeng; Antonelli, Marta

    2016-04-01

    Agricultural production is one of the major sources of water pollution in the world. This is closely related to the excess application of fertilizers. Leaching of N and P to water bodies has caused serious degradation of water quality in many places. With the persistent increase in the demand for agricultural products, agricultural intensification evident during the past decades will continue in the future. This will lead to further increase in fertilizer application and consequently water pollution. Grey water footprint is a measure of the intensity of water pollution caused by water use for human activities. It is defined as the volume of water that is required to assimilate a load of pollutants to a freshwater body, based on natural background concentrations and water quality standards. This study conducts a global assessment of grey water footprint for major cereal crops, wheat, maize and rice. A crop model, Python-based EPIC (PEPIT), is applied to quantify the leaching of N and P from the fertilizer application in the three crops on a global scale with 0.5 degree spatial resolution. The hotspots of leaching are identified. The results suggest that, based on the definition and method of grey water footprint proposed by the World Water Footprint Network, the grey water footprint in many parts of the world has exceeded their total water resources availability. This indicates the seriousness of water pollution caused by agricultural production. However, the situation may also call for the development of a realistic measurement of grey water footprint which is more pertinent to water resources management. This paper proposes some alternatives in measuring grey water footprint and also discusses incorporation of grey water footprint assessment into water policy formulation and river basins plan development.

  1. Global water resources assessment at a sub-annual timescale: Application to climate change impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Takahashi, K.; Hijioka, Y.

    2010-12-01

    Several reports have assessed water scarcity globally using the widely accepted withdrawal-to-water resources ratio (hereafter WWR). This index is defined as the ratio of annual withdrawal to the annual renewable water resources (runoff). The index has also been used widely to assess the impact of climate change on global water resources. Here, we ask whether it is appropriate to use the WWR to assess the impact of climate change. Global warming is projected to increase the mean annual runoff in many parts of the world. Therefore, in these regions, the WWR decreases, by definition. However, water scarcity may not always be alleviated in these regions. Global warming is also projected to increase the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, decrease snowfall, and change the timing of snowmelt. These phenomena may increase the temporal gap between water availability and water demand, which might worsen local water scarcity, even if the mean annual runoff is increased. To assess the impact of climate change on global water resources incorporating subannual time-scale phenomena, this study applies a new water scarcity index, the cumulative withdrawal-to-demand ratio (hereafter CWD). This index is defined as the ratio of the accumulation of daily water withdrawal from local water resources to the accumulation of daily water demand. To estimate daily water withdrawal and water demand, we used the state-of-the-art H08 global water resources model. Our results indicated that global warming increased the mean annual runoff in 52% of the total land area globally. However, in 22% of the area where runoff increased, the CWD showed increased water stress. Those regions included India, northern China, and northern Europe. For India, the increase in water stress was attributed to the seasonal gap between runoff increase and water demand. The increased runoff was concentrated in a few months, while the high water demand months differed and were much longer. For Europe

  2. Assessing the Constructive Potential of Union Citizenship A Socio-Historical Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antje Wiener

    1997-09-01

    Full Text Available In European integration studies citizenship policy has not received much attention as a practice. Instead much of the literature has predominantly focused on legal assessments of Union citizenship shedding light on the limitations of supranational citizenship compared to the familiar statist concepts of citizenship. Legal approaches have thus often adopted a minimalist perspective on citizenship, establishing what Union citizenship is not leaving aside the constructive potential of Union citizenship. This paper seeks to demonstrate that a constructive perspective on the practice of citizenship facilitates valuable information about the creation of the institutionalised terms of citizenship over time. If it is true that Union citizenship is different from other types of citizenship, what is new about it? Constructive approaches suggest, that if we are to establish the dynamics which characterise Union citizenship analyses need to allow for a way of appreciating historical variability of context and contents of citizenship. To that end the major part of this paper seeks to develop a way of assessing the constructive potential of citizenship based on its newly institutionalised terms such as the shared values, objectives and regulations that have been established by citizenship policy over time. Beyond describing the emergence of EC/EU citizenship the paper promotes a systematic approach to reconstruct the policy in this supranational context. It is assumed that citizenship did not emerge out of the blue on the agenda of the Maastricht Intergovernmental Conference but that it is possible to identify agenda-setting steps in earlier stages of the policy process. If this assumption is correct, then a historical account could bring the various steps of citizenship policy which led to the history-making decision at Maastricht summit to the fore.

  3. Assessing the Constructive Potential of Union Citizenship – A Socio-Historical Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antje Wiener

    1997-09-01

    Full Text Available In European integration studies citizenship policy has not received much attention as a practice. Instead much of the literature has predominantly focused on legal assessments of Union citizenship shedding light on the limitations of supranational citizenship – compared to the familiar statist concepts of citizenship. Legal approaches have thus often adopted a minimalist perspective on citizenship, establishing what Union citizenship is not leaving aside the constructive potential of Union citizenship. This paper seeks to demonstrate that a constructive perspective on the practice of citizenship facilitates valuable information about the creation of the institutionalised terms of citizenship over time. If it is true that Union citizenship is different from other types of citizenship, what is new about it? Constructive approaches suggest, that if we are to establish the dynamics which characterise Union citizenship analyses need to allow for a way of appreciating historical variability of context and contents of citizenship. To that end the major part of this paper seeks to develop a way of assessing the constructive potential of citizenship based on its newly institutionalised terms such as the shared values, objectives and regulations that have been established by citizenship policy over time. Beyond describing the emergence of EC/EU citizenship the paper promotes a systematic approach to reconstruct the policy in this supranational context. It is assumed that citizenship did not emerge out of the blue on the agenda of the Maastricht Intergovernmental Conference but that it is possible to identify agenda-setting steps in earlier stages of the policy process. If this assumption is correct, then a historical account could bring the various steps of citizenship policy which led to the history-making decision at Maastricht summit to the fore.

  4. Assessment of Health Risk from Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Elizabeth L; Sheehan, Patrick J; Kalmes, Renee M; Griffin, John R

    2016-07-09

    This study's objective is to assess the risk of asbestos-related disease being contracted by past users of cosmetic talcum powder.  To our knowledge, no risk assessment studies using exposure data from historical exposures or chamber simulations have been published. We conducted activity-based sampling with cosmetic talcum powder samples from five opened and previously used containers that are believed to have been first manufactured and sold in the 1960s and 1970s.  These samples had been subject to conflicting claims of asbestos content; samples with the highest claimed asbestos content were tested.  The tests were conducted in simulated-bathroom controlled chambers with volunteers who were talc users.  Air sampling filters were prepared by direct preparation techniques and analyzed by phase contrast microscopy (PCM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) with energy-dispersive x-ray (EDX) spectra, and selective area diffraction (SAED).  TEM analysis for asbestos resulted in no confirmed asbestos fibers and only a single fiber classified as "ambiguous."  Hypothetical treatment of this fiber as if it were asbestos yields a risk of 9.6 × 10(-7) (under one in one million) for a lifetime user of this cosmetic talcum powder.  The exposure levels associated with these results range from zero to levels far below those identified in the epidemiology literature as posing a risk for asbestos-related disease, and substantially below published historical environmental background levels.  The approaches used for this study have potential application to exposure evaluations of other talc or asbestos-containing materials and consumer products.

  5. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  6. Historical Background on Assessment the Performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rechard, R.P.

    1999-06-01

    In 1979, six years after selecting the Delaware Basin as a potential disposal area, Congress authorized the US Department of Energy to build the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, as a research and development facility for the safe management, storage, and disposal of waste contaminated with transuranic radioisotopes. In 1998, 19 years after authorization and 25 years after site selection, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified that the WIPP disposal system complied with its regulations. The EPA's decision was primarily based on the results from a performance assessment conducted in 1996. This performance assessment was the culmination of four preliminary performance assessments conducted between 1989 and 1992. This report provides a historical setting and context for how the performance of the deep geologic repository at the WIPP was analyzed. Also included is background on political forces acting on the project. For example, the federal requirement to provide environmental impact statements and negotiated agreements with the State of New Mexico influenced the type of scientific areas that were investigated and the engineering analysis prior to 1989 for the WIPP.

  7. A Protocol for the Global Sensitivity Analysis of Impact Assessment Models in Life Cycle Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucurachi, S; Borgonovo, E; Heijungs, R

    2016-02-01

    The life cycle assessment (LCA) framework has established itself as the leading tool for the assessment of the environmental impact of products. Several works have established the need of integrating the LCA and risk analysis methodologies, due to the several common aspects. One of the ways to reach such integration is through guaranteeing that uncertainties in LCA modeling are carefully treated. It has been claimed that more attention should be paid to quantifying the uncertainties present in the various phases of LCA. Though the topic has been attracting increasing attention of practitioners and experts in LCA, there is still a lack of understanding and a limited use of the available statistical tools. In this work, we introduce a protocol to conduct global sensitivity analysis in LCA. The article focuses on the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA), and particularly on the relevance of global techniques for the development of trustable impact assessment models. We use a novel characterization model developed for the quantification of the impacts of noise on humans as a test case. We show that global SA is fundamental to guarantee that the modeler has a complete understanding of: (i) the structure of the model and (ii) the importance of uncertain model inputs and the interaction among them.

  8. A global experimental dataset for assessing grain legume production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cernay, Charles; Pelzer, Elise; Makowski, David

    2016-01-01

    Grain legume crops are a significant component of the human diet and animal feed and have an important role in the environment, but the global diversity of agricultural legume species is currently underexploited. Experimental assessments of grain legume performances are required, to identify potential species with high yields. Here, we introduce a dataset including results of field experiments published in 173 articles. The selected experiments were carried out over five continents on 39 grain legume species. The dataset includes measurements of grain yield, aerial biomass, crop nitrogen content, residual soil nitrogen content and water use. When available, yields for cereals and oilseeds grown after grain legumes in the crop sequence are also included. The dataset is arranged into a relational database with nine structured tables and 198 standardized attributes. Tillage, fertilization, pest and irrigation management are systematically recorded for each of the 8,581 crop*field site*growing season*treatment combinations. The dataset is freely reusable and easy to update. We anticipate that it will provide valuable information for assessing grain legume production worldwide. PMID:27676125

  9. A global experimental dataset for assessing grain legume production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cernay, Charles; Pelzer, Elise; Makowski, David

    2016-09-01

    Grain legume crops are a significant component of the human diet and animal feed and have an important role in the environment, but the global diversity of agricultural legume species is currently underexploited. Experimental assessments of grain legume performances are required, to identify potential species with high yields. Here, we introduce a dataset including results of field experiments published in 173 articles. The selected experiments were carried out over five continents on 39 grain legume species. The dataset includes measurements of grain yield, aerial biomass, crop nitrogen content, residual soil nitrogen content and water use. When available, yields for cereals and oilseeds grown after grain legumes in the crop sequence are also included. The dataset is arranged into a relational database with nine structured tables and 198 standardized attributes. Tillage, fertilization, pest and irrigation management are systematically recorded for each of the 8,581 crop*field site*growing season*treatment combinations. The dataset is freely reusable and easy to update. We anticipate that it will provide valuable information for assessing grain legume production worldwide.

  10. Assessing the Cost of Global Biodiversity and Conservation Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juffe-Bignoli, Diego; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Jenkins, Richard B; Boe, Kaia; Hoffmann, Michael; Angulo, Ariadne; Bachman, Steve; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Carpenter, Kent E; Comer, Pat J; Cox, Neil; Cuttelod, Annabelle; Darwall, William R T; Di Marco, Moreno; Fishpool, Lincoln D C; Goettsch, Bárbara; Heath, Melanie; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hutton, Jon; Johnson, Tim; Joolia, Ackbar; Keith, David A; Langhammer, Penny F; Luedtke, Jennifer; Nic Lughadha, Eimear; Lutz, Maiko; May, Ian; Miller, Rebecca M; Oliveira-Miranda, María A; Parr, Mike; Pollock, Caroline M; Ralph, Gina; Rodríguez, Jon Paul; Rondinini, Carlo; Smart, Jane; Stuart, Simon; Symes, Andy; Tordoff, Andrew W; Woodley, Stephen; Young, Bruce; Kingston, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by standards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge products for biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decision makers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largely undocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintaining four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary data collected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US$160 million (range: US$116-204 million), plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278-308 person-years) valued at US$ 14 million (range US$12-16 million), were invested in these four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financing was provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnel costs. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowledge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were not possible to estimate for 2013) is US$6.5 million in total (range: US$6.2-6.7 million). We estimated that an additional US$114 million will be needed to reach pre-defined baselines of data coverage for all the four knowledge products, and that once achieved, annual maintenance costs will be approximately US$12 million. These costs are much lower than those to maintain many other, similarly important, global knowledge products. Ensuring that biodiversity and conservation knowledge products are sufficiently up to date, comprehensive and accurate is fundamental to inform decision-making for

  11. Porphyry copper assessment of western Central Asia: Chapter N in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Byron R.; Mars, John L.; Denning, Paul D.; Phillips, Jeffrey D.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Zientek, Michael L.; Dicken, Connie L.; Drew, Lawrence J.; with contributions from Alexeiev, Dmitriy; Seltmann, Reimar; Herrington, Richard J.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey conducted an assessment of resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in the western Central Asia countries of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and the southern Urals of Kazakhstan and Russia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits; (2) compile a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) where data permit, estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates the amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in those undiscovered deposits.

  12. Porphyry copper assessment of Southeast Asia and Melanesia: Chapter D in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Dicken, Connie L.; Drenth, Benjamin J.; Ludington, Steve; Robinson,, Gilpin R.; Setiabudi, Bambang Tjahjono; Sukserm, Wudhikarn; Sunuhadi, Dwi Nugroho; Wah, Alexander Yan Sze; Zientek, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with member countries of the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) on an assessment of the porphyry copper resources of Southeast Asia and Melanesia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The region hosts world-class porphyry copper deposits and underexplored areas that are likely to contain undiscovered deposits. Examples of known porphyry copper deposits include Batu Hijau and Grasberg in Indonesia; Panguna, Frieda River, and Ok Tedi in Papua New Guinea; and Namosi in Fiji.

  13. Quantitative assessment of historical coastal landfill contamination using in-situ field portable XRF (FPXRF)

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Shea, Francis; Spencer, Kate; Brasington, James

    2014-05-01

    Historically, waste was deposited on low value, easily accessible coastal land (e.g. marsh land). Within England and Wales alone, there are over 5000 historical landfills situated within coastal areas at risk of flooding at a 1 in 100 year return period (Environment Agency, 2012). Historical sites were constructed prior to relevant legislation, and have no basal or side wall engineering, and the waste constituents are mostly unknown. In theory, contaminant concentrations should be reduced through natural attenuation as the leachate plume migrates through surrounding fine-grained inter-tidal sediments before reaching receptor waters. However, erosion resulting from rising sea level and increased storm intensity may re-distribute these sediments and release associated contaminants into the estuarine and coastal environment. The diffuse discharge from these sites has not been quantified and this presents a problem for those landfill managers who are required to complete EIAs. An earlier detailed field campaign at Newlands landfill site, on the Thames Estuary, UK identified a sub-surface (~2m depth) contaminant plume extending c. 20 m from the landfill boundary into surrounding fine-grained saltmarsh sediments. These saltmarsh sediments are risk of being eroded releasing their contaminant load to the Thames Estuary. The aims of this work were to; 1) assess whether this plume is representative of other historical landfills with similar characteristics and 2) to develop a rapid screening methodology using field portable XRF that could be used to identify potential risk of other coastal landfill sites. GIS was used to select landfill sites of similar age, hydrological regime and sedimentary setting in the UK, for comparison. Collection of sediment samples and analysis by ICP OES is expensive and time-consuming, therefore cores were extracted and analysed with a Niton Goldd XRF in-situ. Contaminant data were available immediately and the sampling strategy could be adapted

  14. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  15. Assessment of the global impact of aerosols on tropospheric oxidants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tie, Xuexi; Madronich, Sasha; Walters, Stacy; Edwards, David P.; Ginoux, Paul; Mahowald, Natalie; Zhang, Renyi; Lou, Chao; Brasseur, Guy

    2005-02-01

    We present here a fully coupled global aerosol and chemistry model for the troposphere. The model is used to assess the interactions between aerosols and chemical oxidants in the troposphere, including (1) the conversion from gas-phase oxidants into the condensed phase during the formation of aerosols, (2) the heterogeneous reactions occurring on the surface of aerosols, and (3) the effect of aerosols on ultraviolet radiation and photolysis rates. The present study uses the global three-dimensional chemical/transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2), in which aerosols are coupled with the model. The model accounts for the presence of sulfate, soot, primary organic carbon, ammonium nitrate, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust particles. The simulated global distributions of the aerosols are analyzed and evaluated using satellite measurements (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) and surface measurements. The results suggest that in northern continental regions the tropospheric aerosol loading is highest in Europe, North America, and east Asia. Sulfate, organic carbon, black carbon, and ammonium nitrate are major contributions for the high aerosol loading in these regions. Aerosol loading is also high in the Amazon and in Africa. In these areas the aerosols consist primarily of organic carbon and black carbon. Over the southern high-latitude ocean (around 60°S), high concentrations of sea-salt aerosol are predicted. The concentration of mineral dust is highest over the Sahara and, as a result of transport, spread out into adjacent regions. The model and MODIS show similar geographical distributions of aerosol particles. However, the model overestimates the sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol in the eastern United States, Europe, and east Asia. In the region where aerosol loading is high, aerosols have important impacts on tropospheric ozone and other oxidants. The model suggests that

  16. Historical precedence and technical requirements of biological weapons use : a threat assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estes, Daniel P.; Vogel, Kathleen Margaret; Gaudioso, Jennifer Marie; Hickok, Lauren T.; Jung, Danielle F.; Barnett, Natalie Beth; Frerichs, Rebecca L.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

    2004-05-01

    The threat from biological weapons is assessed through both a comparative historical analysis of the patterns of biological weapons use and an assessment of the technological hurdles to proliferation and use that must be overcome. The history of biological weapons is studied to learn how agents have been acquired and what types of states and substate actors have used agents. Substate actors have generally been more willing than states to use pathogens and toxins and they have focused on those agents that are more readily available. There has been an increasing trend of bioterrorism incidents over the past century, but states and substate actors have struggled with one or more of the necessary technological steps. These steps include acquisition of a suitable agent, production of an appropriate quantity and form, and effective deployment. The technological hurdles associated with the steps present a real barrier to producing a high consequence event. However, the ever increasing technological sophistication of society continually lowers the barriers, resulting in a low but increasing probability of a high consequence bioterrorism event.

  17. Guidelines for rating Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aas IH Monrad

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF is a scoring system for the severity of illness in psychiatry. It is used clinically in many countries, as well as in research, but studies have shown several problems with GAF, for example concerning its validity and reliability. Guidelines for rating are important. The present study aimed to identify the current status of guidelines for rating GAF, and relevant factors and gaps in knowledge for the development of improved guidelines. Methods A thorough literature search was conducted. Results Few studies of existing guidelines have been conducted; existing guidelines are short; and rating has a subjective element. Seven main categories were identified as being important in relation to further development of guidelines: (1 general points about guidelines for rating GAF; (2 introduction to guidelines, with ground rules; (3 starting scoring at the top, middle or bottom level of the scale; (4 scoring for different time periods and of different values (highest, lowest or average; (5 the finer grading of the scale; (6 different guidelines for different conditions; and (7 different languages and cultures. Little information is available about how rules for rating are understood by different raters: the final score may be affected by whether the rater starts at the top, middle or bottom of the scale; there is little data on which value/combination of GAF values to record; guidelines for scoring within 10-point intervals are limited; there is little empirical information concerning the suitability of existing guidelines for different conditions and patient characteristics; and little is known about the effects of translation into different languages or of different cultural understanding. Conclusions Few studies have dealt specifically with guidelines for rating GAF. Current guidelines for rating GAF are not comprehensive, and relevant points for new guidelines are presented. Theoretical and

  18. Spatial Accuracy Assessment and Integration of Global Land Cover Datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandin-Erdene Tsendbazar

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Along with the creation of new maps, current efforts for improving global land cover (GLC maps focus on integrating maps by accounting for their relative merits, e.g., agreement amongst maps or map accuracy. Such integration efforts may benefit from the use of multiple GLC reference datasets. Using available reference datasets, this study assesses spatial accuracy of recent GLC maps and compares methods for creating an improved land cover (LC map. Spatial correspondence with reference dataset was modeled for Globcover-2009, Land Cover-CCI-2010, MODIS-2010 and Globeland30 maps for Africa. Using different scenarios concerning the used input data, five integration methods for an improved LC map were tested and cross-validated. Comparison of the spatial correspondences showed that the preferences for GLC maps varied spatially. Integration methods using both the GLC maps and reference data at their locations resulted in 4.5%–13% higher correspondence with the reference LC than any of the input GLC maps. An integrated LC map and LC class probability maps were computed using regression kriging, which produced the highest correspondence (76%. Our results demonstrate the added value of using reference datasets and geostatistics for improving GLC maps. This approach is useful as more GLC reference datasets are becoming publicly available and their reuse is being encouraged.

  19. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jerome; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, James A.; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  20. Porphyry copper assessment of eastern Australia: Chapter L in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Len, Richard A.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Robinson,, Gilpin R.; Zientek, Michael L.; Drenth, Benjamin J.; Jaireth, Subhash; Cossette, Pamela M.; Wallis, John C.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts national and global assessments of resources (mineral, energy, water, and biologic) to provide science in support of decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide syntheses of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to occur in the Earth’s crust and which commodities may be present, together with estimates of amounts of resources that may be present in undiscovered deposits. The USGS collaborated with geologists of the Geological Survey of New South Wales and Geoscience Australia (formerly the Australian Geological Survey Organisation) on an assessment of Phanerozoic-age porphyry copper resources in Australia. Porphyry copper deposits contain about 11 percent of the identified copper resources in Australia. This study addresses resources of known porphyry copper deposits and expected resources of undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in eastern Australia.

  1. Global peat erosion risk assessment for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pengfei; Irvine, Brian; Holden, Joseph

    2015-04-01

    Many peatlands across the world are suffering from degradation and erosion exacerbated by human influences. Blanket peat erosion has adverse impacts on terrestrial and aquatic habitats, reservoir capacity and water quality, and also leads to accelerated carbon release. Bioclimatic modelling suggests that some areas, which are currently suitable for active peat growth, may be no longer under a climate supporting the accumulation of peat by the end of the century. Peat erosion in these marginal regions is thus more likely. A recently developed blanket peat erosion model, PESERA-PEAT, was established through significantly modifying the grid version of the Pan-European Soil Erosion Assessment model (PESERA-GRID) to explicitly include the freeze-thaw and desiccation processes, which appear to be the crucial drivers of peat erosion, and typical land management practices in blanket peatlands such as artificial drainage, grazing and managed burning. Freeze-thaw and desiccation are estimated based on climate (i.e. temperature) and soil moisture conditions. Land management practices interact with hydrology, erosion and vegetation growth via their influence on vegetation cover, biomass and soil moisture condition. The model has been demonstrated to be robust for blanket peat erosion modelling with riverine sediment flux data in the UK. In this paper, the PESERA-PEAT model is applied to investigate the impact of environmental change on the blanket peat erosion at a global scale. Climatic scenarios to the end of 21st Century were derived, as part of the QUEST-GSI initiative, from the outputs of seven global climate models: CGCM3 and CCCMA (Canada); CSIRO Mark III (Australia); IPSL (France); ECHAM5 (Germany); CCSM (US National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)); HadCM3 and HadGEM1 (UK). Land management practice such as artificial drainage is considered to examine if it is possible to buffer the impact of climate change on erosion through managing blanket peatlands in

  2. Assessing the Cost of Global Biodiversity and Conservation Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juffe-Bignoli, Diego; Brooks, Thomas M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Jenkins, Richard B.; Boe, Kaia; Hoffmann, Michael; Angulo, Ariadne; Bachman, Steve; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Carpenter, Kent E.; Comer, Pat J.; Cox, Neil; Cuttelod, Annabelle; Darwall, William R. T.; Fishpool, Lincoln D. C.; Goettsch, Bárbara; Heath, Melanie; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hutton, Jon; Johnson, Tim; Joolia, Ackbar; Keith, David A.; Langhammer, Penny F.; Luedtke, Jennifer; Nic Lughadha, Eimear; Lutz, Maiko; May, Ian; Miller, Rebecca M.; Oliveira-Miranda, María A.; Parr, Mike; Pollock, Caroline M.; Ralph, Gina; Rodríguez, Jon Paul; Rondinini, Carlo; Smart, Jane; Stuart, Simon; Symes, Andy; Tordoff, Andrew W.; Young, Bruce; Kingston, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by standards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge products for biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decision makers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largely undocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintaining four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary data collected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US$160 million (range: US$116–204 million), plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278–308 person-years) valued at US$ 14 million (range US$12–16 million), were invested in these four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financing was provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnel costs. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowledge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were not possible to estimate for 2013) is US$6.5 million in total (range: US$6.2–6.7 million). We estimated that an additional US$114 million will be needed to reach pre-defined baselines of data coverage for all the four knowledge products, and that once achieved, annual maintenance costs will be approximately US$12 million. These costs are much lower than those to maintain many other, similarly important, global knowledge products. Ensuring that biodiversity and conservation knowledge products are sufficiently up to date, comprehensive and accurate is fundamental to inform decision

  3. Assessing Summit Engagement with Other International Organizations in Global Governance

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Recent decades have witnessed dramatic changes all over the world. One major trend is the proliferation and diversification of actors, forums and their arrangements to address global governance challenges, which has led to fragmentation in global governance. However, such contested multilateralism has a positive dimension, as the emergence of informal multilateral institutions claiming a major role in defining the global governance agenda creates alternatives for providing common goods. New a...

  4. ASSESSMENT OF THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL MARKETING STRATEGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Savelyev

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article concerns with essence of assessment of the business environment and specific directions of analysis during the working out of global marketing strategy. The classification of the global marketing environment researches and tasks sequence in the context of the decisions made on each stage of global marketing strategy is proposed.

  5. ASSESSMENT OF THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL MARKETING STRATEGY

    OpenAIRE

    V.Savelyev

    2014-01-01

    The article concerns with essence of assessment of the business environment and specific directions of analysis during the working out of global marketing strategy. The classification of the global marketing environment researches and tasks sequence in the context of the decisions made on each stage of global marketing strategy is proposed.

  6. Measurement of thermophysical properties coupled with LCA assessment for the optimization of a historical building retrofit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortolin, A.; Bison, P.; Cadelano, G.; Ferrarini, G.; Fortuna, S.

    2015-11-01

    Historical buildings are a significant part of the Italian building stock and, in most cases, need deep refurbishment interventions to reach the energy criteria required by the current standards. A workflow that integrates on-site surveys and building modeling is mandatory to obtain effective energy saving measures. This work describes the analysis and modeling of the San Vito alla Rivera church, a XIV century building that was damaged during 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, suffering a partial collapse of the façade and of the roof. The latter was selected for a complete restoration that could improve its thermal performance while maintaining, as much as possible, the original structure. Several elements of the roof were collected in situ in order to measure, in laboratory, its thermophysical properties applying standard techniques and alternative methods based on infrared thermography. The accurate characterization of the materials was the starting point for the estimation of the environmental impact of the retrofit aimed to reach a defined thermal transmittance. A model of the building was created with TRNSYS software to calculate the energy consumption before and after the intervention. A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) analysis was conducted on different insulation materials to determine the one with the lowest impact.

  7. Assessment of Retrofitting Measures for a Large Historic Research Facility Using a Building Energy Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Tae Chae

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A calibrated building simulation model was developed to assess the energy performance of a large historic research building. The complexity of space functions and operational conditions with limited availability of energy meters makes it hard to understand the end-used energy consumption in detail and to identify appropriate retrofitting options for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. An energy simulation model was developed to study the energy usage patterns not only at a building level, but also of the internal thermal zones, and system operations. The model was validated using site measurements of energy usage and a detailed audit of the internal load conditions, system operation, and space programs to minimize the discrepancy between the documented status and actual operational conditions. Based on the results of the calibrated model and end-used energy consumption, the study proposed potential energy conservation measures (ECMs for the building envelope, HVAC system operational methods, and system replacement. It also evaluated each ECM from the perspective of both energy and utility cost saving potentials to help retrofitting plan decision making. The study shows that the energy consumption of the building was highly dominated by the thermal requirements of laboratory spaces. Among other ECMs the demand management option of overriding the setpoint temperature is the most cost effective measure.

  8. Assessment of Missouri River floodplain invertebrates during historic inundation: implications for river restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gosch N.J.C.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Floodplain connectivity is important to aquatic organisms in large rivers. Anthropogenic alterations regulating the Missouri River have limited connectivity and negatively affected native fauna. Determining the biological response to rare inundation events may be important when considering potential restoration options on a regulated river; thus, we assessed benthic invertebrate and zooplankton communities at three floodplain sites during a historic Missouri River high-water event. Chironomid larvae dominated during most sampling trips and densities were often highest during initial sampling trips with lower densities as high water persisted. Similar trends were evident for rotifer, cladoceran, and copepod densities. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling also showed relatively high dissimilarity of densities between early and late sampling trips for benthic invertebrate and zooplankton communities. As such, short-term inundation may be more beneficial to Missouri River benthic invertebrate (mainly chironomid larvae and zooplankton production than more prolonged inundation lasting a month or more. Furthermore, restoration projects may be designed at elevations allowing more short-term inundation, which would likely benefit native fishes with additional spawning, nursery, and foraging habitat. Levee setbacks may be an effective restoration option for increasing the amount of habitat available for short-term inundation while potentially providing socioeconomic, flood-risk reduction benefits by enhancing flow conveyance.

  9. Assessment for the Masses: A Historical Critique of High-Stakes Testing in Reading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huddleston, Andrew P.; Rockwell, Elizabeth C.

    2015-01-01

    This historical critique of high-stakes testing in reading focuses on selected events from three historical movements: 1) the history of standardized testing, 2) the history of standardized reading tests, and 3) the history of high-stakes testing. These three interrelated histories have produced the high-stakes, standardized reading tests used in…

  10. Historical Exposures to Chemicals at the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant: A Pilot Retrospective Exposure Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robertson, Janeen Denise [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1999-02-01

    In a mortality study of white males who had worked at the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant between 1952 and 1979, an increased number of deaths from benign and unspecified intracranial neoplasms was found. A case-control study nested within this cohort investigated the hypothesis that an association existed between brain tumor death and exposure to either internally deposited plutonium or external ionizing radiation. There was no statistically significant association found between estimated radiation exposure from internally deposited plutonium and the development of brain tumors. Exposure by job or work area showed no significant difference between the cohort and the control groups. An update of the study found elevated risk estimates for (1) all lymphopoietic neoplasms, and (2) all causes of death in employees with body burdens greater than or equal to two nanocuries of plutonium. There was an excess of brain tumors for the entire cohort. Similar cohort studies conducted on worker populations from other plutonium handling facilities have not yet shown any elevated risks for brain tumors. Historically, the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant used large quantities of chemicals in their production operations. The use of solvents, particularly carbon tetrachloride, was unique to Rocky Flats. No investigation of the possible confounding effects of chemical exposures was done in the initial studies. The objectives of the present study are to (1) investigate the history of chemical use at the Rocky Flats facility; (2) locate and analyze chemical monitoring information in order to assess employee exposure to the chemicals that were used in the highest volume; and (3) determine the feasibility of establishing a chemical exposure assessment model that could be used in future epidemiology studies.

  11. Water footprint benchmarks for crop production: A first global assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mekonnen, M.M.; Hoekstra, A.Y.

    2014-01-01

    In the coming few decades, global freshwater demand will increase to meet the growing demand for food, fibre and biofuel crops. Raising water productivity in agriculture, that is reducing the water footprint (WF) per unit of production, will contribute to reducing the pressure on the limited global

  12. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #2: MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT (MARA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of this National Assessment effort mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990, EPA's Global Change Research Program is sponsoring the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA). With EPA sponsorship, a multi-disciplinary team of faculty members is leading the first a...

  13. Integrative-index method of assessment of the countries’ financial globalization level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleh Mozhovyi

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the relevant problems of the complex evaluation of the countries’ financial globalization level. There were investigated methodological principles and assessment tools of both the economic globalization in general and its financial component. It offers an integrative index of the countries’ financial globalization based on which calculations we analyzed characteristic features and dynamism of the globalization processes development in the sphere of finance of some countries.

  14. National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerio, Peter; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Reid, David; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George

    2013-01-01

    shoreline change analyses incorporated only four total shorelines to represent specific time periods. This assessment of the PNW incorporates all available shorelines that meet minimum quality standards for resolution and positional accuracy. Shoreline change evaluations are based on a comparison of historical shoreline positions digitized from maps or aerial photographic data sources with recent shorelines, at least one of which is derived from lidar surveys. The historical shorelines cover a variety of time periods ranging from the 1800s through the 1980s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all available shoreline data and short-term rates of change are calculated using the lidar shoreline and the historical shoreline that will produce an assessment for a 15- to 35-year period. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of only the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. The PNW coast was subdivided into eight analysis regions for the purpose of graphically reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the entire PNW coast was 0.9 meter per year (m/yr) of progradation with an uncertainty of 0.07 m/yr. This rate is based on 8,823 individual transects, of which 36 percent was determined to be eroding. Long-term shoreline change was generally more progradational in Washington than in Oregon. This is primarily due to the influence of the Columbia River and human perturbations to the natural system, particularly the construction of jetties at both the mouth of the Columbia River and at Grays Harbor, Washington. The majority of the beaches in southwestern Washington have responded to these large-scale engineered structures by experiencing dramatic beach progradation during the past century. Although these beaches are still responding to the human

  15. Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, Michael J.; Bose, Satyajit; Chon, So Young; Cook, Benjamin I.

    2015-02-01

    The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992-2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18 year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85% of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90%, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9% (3.8%) for 1992-1996, increasing to 11% (5.7%) for 2005-2009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2% (2.2%) to 14% (5.2%). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity.

  16. Assessing the potential global extent of SWOT river discharge observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavelsky, Tamlin M.; Durand, Michael T.; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Beighley, R. Edward; Paiva, Rodrigo C. D.; Allen, George H.; Miller, Zachary F.

    2014-11-01

    Despite its importance as a major element of the global hydrologic cycle, runoff remains poorly constrained except at the largest spatial scales due to limitations of the global stream gauge network and inadequate data sharing. Efforts using remote sensing to infer runoff from discharge estimates are limited by characteristics of present-day sensors. The proposed Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, a joint project between the United States and France, aims to substantially improve space-based estimates of river discharge. However, the extent of rivers observable by SWOT, likely limited to those wider than 50-100 m, remains unknown. Here, we estimate the extent of SWOT river observability globally using a downstream hydraulic geometry (DHG) approach combining basin areas from the Hydro1k and Hydrosheds elevation products, discharge from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), and width estimates from a global width-discharge relationship. We do not explicitly consider SWOT-specific errors associated with layover and other phenomena in this analysis, although they have been considered in formulation of the 50-100 m width thresholds. We compare the extent of SWOT-observable rivers with GRDC and USGS gauge datasets, the most complete datasets freely available to the global scientific community. In the continental US, SWOT would match USGS river basin coverage only at large scales (>25,000 km2). Globally, SWOT would substantially improve on GRDC observation extent: SWOT observation of 100 m (50 m) rivers will allow discharge estimation in >60% of 50,000 km2 (10,000 km2) river basins. In contrast, the GRDC observes fewer than 30% (15%) of these basins. SWOT could improve characterization of global runoff processes, especially with a 50 m observability threshold, but in situ gauge data remains essential and must be shared more freely with the international scientific community.

  17. Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Li-Guang; Wang, Bin

    2003-01-01

    A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the

  18. Historical nectar assessment reveals the fall and rise of floral resources in Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baude, Mathilde; Kunin, William E.; Boatman, Nigel D.; Conyers, Simon; Davies, Nancy; Gillespie, Mark A. K.; Morton, R. Daniel; Smart, Simon M.; Memmott, Jane

    2016-02-01

    There is considerable concern over declines in insect pollinator communities and potential impacts on the pollination of crops and wildflowers. Among the multiple pressures facing pollinators, decreasing floral resources due to habitat loss and degradation has been suggested as a key contributing factor. However, a lack of quantitative data has hampered testing for historical changes in floral resources. Here we show that overall floral rewards can be estimated at a national scale by combining vegetation surveys and direct nectar measurements. We find evidence for substantial losses in nectar resources in England and Wales between the 1930s and 1970s; however, total nectar provision in Great Britain as a whole had stabilized by 1978, and increased from 1998 to 2007. These findings concur with trends in pollinator diversity, which declined in the mid-twentieth century but stabilized more recently. The diversity of nectar sources declined from 1978 to 1990 and thereafter in some habitats, with four plant species accounting for over 50% of national nectar provision in 2007. Calcareous grassland, broadleaved woodland and neutral grassland are the habitats that produce the greatest amount of nectar per unit area from the most diverse sources, whereas arable land is the poorest with respect to amount of nectar per unit area and diversity of nectar sources. Although agri-environment schemes add resources to arable landscapes, their national contribution is low. Owing to their large area, improved grasslands could add substantially to national nectar provision if they were managed to increase floral resource provision. This national-scale assessment of floral resource provision affords new insights into the links between plant and pollinator declines, and offers considerable opportunities for conservation.

  19. Assessing Threats and Conservation Status of Historical Centers of Oak Richness in California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Jane Easterday

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Oak trees are emblematic of California landscapes, they serve as keystone cultural and ecological species and as indicators of natural biological diversity. As historically undeveloped landscapes are increasingly converted to urban environments, endemic oak woodland extent is reduced, which underscores the importance of strategic placement and reintroduction of oaks and woodland landscape for the maintenance of biodiversity and reduction of habitat fragmentation. This paper investigated the effects of human urban development on oak species in California by first modeling historical patterns of richness for eight oak tree species using historical map and plot data from the California Vegetation Type Mapping (VTM collection. We then examined spatial intersections between hot spots of historical oak richness and modern urban and conservation lands and found that impacts from development and conservation vary by both species and richness. Our findings suggest that the impact of urban development on oaks has been small within the areas of highest oak richness but that areas of highest oak richness are also poorly conserved. Third, we argue that current policy measures are inadequate to conserve oak woodlands and suggest regions to prioritize acquisition of conservation lands as well as examine urban regions where historic centers of oak richness were lost as potential frontiers for oak reintroduction. We argue that urban planning could benefit from the adoption of historical data and modern species distribution modelling techniques primarily used in natural resources and conservation fields to better locate hot spots of species richness, understand where habitats and species have been lost historically and use this evidence as incentive to recover what was lost and preserve what still exists. This adoption of historical data and modern techniques would then serve as a paradigm shift in the way Urban Planners recognize, quantify, and use landscape

  20. Non-sustainable groundwater sustaining irrigation - a global assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    Irrigated crops play a vital role in securing global food production. It is estimated that 17% of agricultural lands are irrigated, yet they account for 40% of the global food production, sustaining the livelihood of billions of people (Abdullah, 2006). At the same time, water used by irrigated crops (i.e., crop water demand) and irrigation water demand are responsible for about 70% of the global water withdrawal and account for about 90% of the global water consumption, i.e. water withdrawal minus return flow respectively. Water demand for irrigated crops can be met by three different sources: 1) green water, being water from local precipitation that is temporarily stored in the soil, 2) blue water, being surface freshwater available in rivers, lakes, reservoirs and wetlands, and renewable groundwater, and 3) non-renewable or non-sustainable groundwater and non-local water resources. Here, we quantify globally the amount of non-renewable groundwater abstraction to sustain current irrigation practice. We use the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB to simulate gross crop water demand for irrigated crops and available blue and green water to meet this demand. We downscale country statistics of groundwater abstraction by considering the part of net total water demand that cannot be met by surface freshwater. We subsequently confront these with simulated groundwater recharge including return flow from irrigation to estimate non-renewable groundwater abstraction. Results show that non-renewable groundwater abstraction contributes approximately 20% to the global gross irrigation water demand for the year 2000. The contribution of non-renewable groundwater abstraction to irrigation is largest in India (68 km3 yr-1) followed by Pakistan (35 km3/yr), USA (30 km3/yr), Iran (20 km3/yr), China (20 km3/yr), Mexico (10 km3/yr) and Saudi Arabia (10 km3/yr). Results also show that globally this contribution more than tripled from 75 to 234 km3/yr over the period 1960-2000. These

  1. Global assessment of nitrogen fertilizer: The SCOPE/IGBP Nitrogen Fertilizer Rapid Assessment Project

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Arvin R. Mosier; J. Keith Syers; John R. Freney

    2005-01-01

    Nitrogen (N) availability is a key role in food and fiber production. Providing plant-available N through synthetic fertilizer in the 20th and early 21st century has been a major contributor to the increased production required to feed and clothe the growing human population.To continue to meet the global demands and to minimize environmental problems, significant improvements are needed in the efficiency with which fertilizer N is utilized within production systems. There are still major uncertainties regarding the fate of fertilizer N added to agricultural soils and the potential for reducing losses to the environment. Enhancing the technical and economic efficiency of fertilizer N is seen to promote a favorable situation for both agricultural production and the environment, and this has provided much of the impetus for a new N fertilizer project.To address this important issue, a rapid assessment project on N fertilizer (NFRAP) was conducted by SCOPE (the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment) during late 2003 and early 2004. This was the first formal project of the International Nitrogen Initiative (INI). As part of this assessment, a successful international workshop was held in Kampala, Uganda on 12 -16 January, 2004. This workshop brought together scientists from around the world to assess the fate of synthetic fertilizer N in the context of overall N inputs to agricultural systems, with a view to enhancing the efficiency of N use and reducing negative impacts on the environment.Regionalization of the assessment highlighted the problems of too little N for crop production to meet the nutrient requirements of sub-Saharan Africa and the oversupply of N in the major rice-growing areas of China. The results of the assessment are presented in a book (SCOPE 65)which is now available to provide a basis for further discussions on N fertilizer.

  2. THE DEGREE OF STATE'S GLOBALIZATION ASSESSMENT IN ASPECTS OF CONVERGENCE AND INTEGRATION IN THE WORLD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Kharlamova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Analyses of approaches and methods to assess processes of integration and convergence adjusted the direction of the goal of the study – to assess the degree of globalization for a state by means of alternative (authors’ approach, taking into account current characteristics and trends of this process. Based on the known techniques to assess the degree of globalization as “European Integration Index for Eastern Partnership Coun-tries” and “KOF Index of Globalization”, we have expanded the existing methodology and developed an alternative index of the degree of globaliza-tion of the country, based on the model of perfect globalized and fully not globalized countries. Alternative globalization index and KOF Index of Globalization were compared to analyze the practical efficiency of each. Comparative characteristics of the alternative globalization index of the country and KOF Index of Globalization confirmed the practical efficiency and simplicity in estimation for authors’ index that is based on evidence and giving adequate evaluation. The development of new methods in this area is in demand as never before. We have taken the first steps toward an alternative approach analysis of the phenomenon of globalization.

  3. Globalizing Historically Black Business Schools: A Case Study of the Application of Modern Pedagogical Theories of Internationalizing Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kedia, Ben L.; Clampit, Jack; Gaffney, Nolan

    2014-01-01

    The AACSB and AIB have each issued reports aimed at ensuring the internationalization of business schools. Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs)--as underresourced entities serving an underprivileged constituency--may need additional attention. Unfortunately, neither the AACSB nor AIB reports mention HBCUs. The broader literature is…

  4. GEA, 2012 : Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johansson, T.B.; Patwardhan, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Gomez-Echeverri, L.; Turkenburg, W.C.; Global Energy Assessment (GEA) Council

    2012-01-01

    Energy is central to addressing major challenges of the 21st Century, challenges like climate change, economic and social development, human well-being, sustainable development, and global security. In 2005, Prof. Bert Bolin, the founding Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  5. Assessing the Global Potential and Regional Implications of Promoting Bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    There is no simple answer to the question “are materials from bio-based feedstocks environmentally, and socially, preferable?” Bioenergy as an alternative energy source might be effective in reducing fossil fuel use, slowing global warming effects, and providing increased revenue...

  6. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  7. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 – 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 – 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also

  8. AFM assessment of the surface nano/microstructure on chemically damaged historical and model glasses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carmona, Noemi [Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Metalurgicas, CSIC, Avda. Gregorio del Amo, 8, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Kowal, Andrzej [Institute of Catalysis and Surface Chemistry, PAN, ul. Niezapominajek 8, 30239 Cracow (Poland); Rincon, Jesus-Maria [Instituto Eduardo Torroja de Ciencias de la Construccion, CSIC, C. Serrano Galvache s/n, 28033 Madrid (Spain); Villegas, Maria-Angeles, E-mail: mariangeles.villegas@cchs.csic.es [Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Metalurgicas, CSIC, Avda. Gregorio del Amo, 8, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Historia, Centro de Ciencias Humanas y Sociales, CSIC, C. Albasanz, 26-28, 28037 Madrid (Spain)

    2010-01-15

    Surface chemical damage on selected historical glasses from 13th to 19th centuries was evaluated by means of atomic force microscopy (AFM). Nano- and microstructure, roughness and topography of ancient glass samples have been compared with those of model glasses prepared by conventional melting at the laboratory with similar compositions to those most frequently found in historical glass pieces. The results obtained allow discussing the chemical degradation mechanisms in terms of the acid and/or basic chemical attack carried out by the combination of gaseous pollutants and environmental humidity. Even though deep corrosion features escape to the observation order of magnitude of the AF microscope used, the AFM technique proves to be quite useful for the study and evaluation of the most common surface pathologies of historical glasses with different compositions once submitted to natural weathering.

  9. How Can Historical Understanding Best be Assessed? Use of Prediction Tasks To Assess How Students Understand the Role of Causal Factors that Produce Historical Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Tapia, Jesus; Villa, Jose Luis

    1999-01-01

    Examines the viability of using hypothetical problems that need the application of causal models for their solution as a method to assessing understanding in the social sciences. Explains that this method was used to describe how seventh-grade students understand causal factors affecting the "discovery and colonization of America." (CMK)

  10. Impact of historical mining assessed in soils by kinetic extraction and lead isotopic ratios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camizuli, E., E-mail: estelle.camizuli@u-bourgogne.fr [UMR 6298, ArTeHiS, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS — Culture, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Monna, F. [UMR 6298, ArTeHiS, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS — Culture, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Bermond, A.; Manouchehri, N.; Besançon, S. [Institut des sciences et industries du vivant et de l' environnement (AgroParisTech), Laboratoire de Chimie Analytique, 16, rue Claude Bernard, 75231 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Losno, R. [UMR 7583, LISA, Universités Paris 7-Paris 12 — CNRS, 61 av. du Gal de Gaulle, 94010 Créteil Cedex (France); Oort, F. van [UR 251, Pessac, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Centre de Versailles-Grignon, RD 10, 78026 Versailles Cedex (France); Labanowski, J. [UMR 7285, IC2MP, Université de Poitiers — CNRS, 4, rue Michel Brunet, 86022 Poitiers (France); Perreira, A. [UMR 6298, ArTeHiS, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS — Culture, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Chateau, C. [UFR SVTE, Université de Bourgogne, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Alibert, P. [UMR 6282, Biogeosciences, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France)

    2014-02-01

    The aim of this study is to estimate the long-term behaviour of trace metals, in two soils differently impacted by past mining. Topsoils from two 1 km{sup 2} zones in the forested Morvan massif (France) were sampled to assess the spatial distribution of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn. The first zone had been contaminated by historical mining. As expected, it exhibits higher trace-metal levels and greater spatial heterogeneity than the second non-contaminated zone, supposed to represent the local background. One soil profile from each zone was investigated in detail to estimate metal behaviour, and hence, bioavailability. Kinetic extractions were performed using EDTA on three samples: the A horizon from both soil profiles and the B horizon from the contaminated soil. For all three samples, kinetic extractions can be modelled by two first-order reactions. Similar kinetic behaviour was observed for all metals, but more metal was extracted from the contaminated A horizon than from the B horizon. More surprising is the general predominance of the residual fraction over the “labile” and “less labile” pools. Past anthropogenic inputs may have percolated over time through the soil profiles because of acidic pH conditions. Stable organo-metallic complexes may also have been formed over time, reducing metal availability. These processes are not mutually exclusive. After kinetic extraction, the lead isotopic compositions of the samples exhibited different signatures, related to contamination history and intrinsic soil parameters. However, no variation in lead signature was observed during the extraction experiment, demonstrating that the “labile” and “less labile” lead pools do not differ in terms of origin. Even if trace metals resulting from past mining and metallurgy persist in soils long after these activities have ceased, kinetic extractions suggest that metals, at least for these particular forest soils, do not represent a threat for biota. - Highlights: • Trace

  11. Immmigrants and their associations: A global and historical perspective Los inmigrantes y sus asociaciones: Una perspectiva histórica y global

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José C. Moya

    2008-09-01

    sociability. The paper addresses the class and gender composition of memberships, compares the associative practices of the late 19th century’s immigrants with those of the early 21st century, and discusses the issue of state involvement. The essay shows, from a global and historical perspective, how quasi-universal processes and local and temporal specificities shaped associational practices in a way that transcended the ethno-national traditions and characteristics of particular immigrant groups and host countries.

  1. Covariant energy density functionals: the assessment of global performance across the nuclear landscape

    CERN Document Server

    Afanasjev, A V

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the global performance of the state-of-the-art covariant energy density functionals and related theoretical uncertainties in the description of ground state observables has recently been performed. Based on these results, the correlations between global description of binding energies and nuclear matter properties of covariant energy density functionals have been studied in this contribution.

  2. Popper's Theory of the Searchlight : A Historical Assessment of Its Significance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ter Hark, Michel; Parusnikova, Z; Cohen, R

    2009-01-01

    On the basis of a correspondence between Karl Popper and the Dutch psychologist Adriaan de Groot, it is argued that the former's epistemology of the searchlight is historically rooted in early cognitive psychology of Otto Selz. It is furthermore argued that Popper's later critique of information pro

  3. Still Digitally Divided? An Assessment of Historically Black College and University Library Web Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Renee Franklin

    2012-01-01

    Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) are post-secondary institutions which, at one time, were considered to be particularly affected by the digital divide. Research study results have suggested the need for HBCUs to continuously increase campus technology. Guided by four research questions, this study examines the current state of…

  4. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given for...

  5. Global Assessment of Volcanic Debris Hazards from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watters, Robert J.

    2003-01-01

    Hazard (slope stability) assessment for different sectors of volcano edifices was successfully obtained from volcanoes in North and South America. The assessment entailed Hyperion images to locate portions of the volcano that were hydrothermally altered to clay rich rocks with zones that were also rich in alunite and other minerals. The identified altered rock zones were field checked and sampled. The rock strength of these zones was calculated from the field and laboratory measurements. Volcano modeling utilizing the distinct element method and limit equilibrium technique, with the calculated strength data was used to assess stability and deformation of the edifice. Modeling results give indications of possible failure volumes, velocities and direction. The models show the crucial role hydrothermally weak rock plays in reducing the strength o the volcano edifice and the rapid identification of weak rock through remote sensing techniques. Volcanoes were assessed in the Cascade Range (USA), Mexico, and Chile (ongoing).

  6. Downscaling land use and land cover from the Global Change Assessment Model for coupling with Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Page, Yannick; West, Tris O.; Link, Robert; Patel, Pralit

    2016-09-01

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used to project future societal and environmental scenarios, based on economic modeling and on a detailed representation of food and energy production systems. The terrestrial module in GCAM represents agricultural activities and ecosystems dynamics at the subregional scale, and must be downscaled to be used for impact assessments in gridded models (e.g., climate models). In this study, we present the downscaling algorithm of the GCAM model, which generates gridded time series of global land use and land cover (LULC) from any GCAM scenario. The downscaling is based on a number of user-defined rules and drivers, including transition priorities (e.g., crop expansion preferentially into grasslands rather than forests) and spatial constraints (e.g., nutrient availability). The default parameterization is evaluated using historical LULC change data, and a sensitivity experiment provides insights on the most critical parameters and how their influence changes regionally and in time. Finally, a reference scenario and a climate mitigation scenario are downscaled to illustrate the gridded land use outcomes of different policies on agricultural expansion and forest management. Several features of the downscaling can be modified by providing new input data or changing the parameterization, without any edits to the code. Those features include spatial resolution as well as the number and type of land classes being downscaled, thereby providing flexibility to adapt GCAM LULC scenarios to the requirements of a wide range of models and applications. The downscaling system is version controlled and freely available.

  7. Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Sterman, John; Booth Sweeney, Linda

    2002-01-01

    Surveys show most Americans believe global warming is real. But many advocate delaying action until there is more evidence that warming is harmful. The stock and flow structure of the climate, however, means "wait and see" policies guarantee further warming. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is now higher than any time in the last 420,000 years, and growing faster than any time in the past 20,000 years. The high concentration of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) generates significant radiat...

  8. The Global Burden of Disease assessments--WHO is responsible?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Stein

    Full Text Available The Global Burden of Disease (GBD concept has been used by the World Health Organization (WHO for its reporting on health information for nearly 10 years. The GBD approach results in a single summary measure of morbidity, disability, and mortality, the so-called disability-adjusted life year (DALY. To ensure transparency and objectivity in the derivation of health information, WHO has been urged to use reference groups of external experts to estimate burden of disease. Under the leadership and coordination of WHO, expert groups have been appraising and abstracting burden of disease information. Examples include the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG, the Malaria Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group (MERG, and the recently established Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG. The structure and functioning of and lessons learnt by these groups are described in this paper. External WHO expert groups have provided independent scientific health information while operating under considerable differences in structure and functioning. Although it is not appropriate to devise a single "best practice" model, the common thread described by all groups is the necessity of WHO's leadership and coordination to ensure the provision and dissemination of health information that is to be globally accepted and valued.

  9. Archaeology, historical site risk assessment and monitoring by UAV: approaches and case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecci, Antonio; Masini, Nicola

    2016-04-01

    Non-invasive methods for archaeological research, like geophysical prospecting, aerial and satellite remote sensing, integrated with field survey activity, can make a large quantity of data essential for both operational uses and scientific purposes: from the detection of buried remains to risk assessment and monitoring (Lasaponara & Masini 2012; 2013; Lasaponara et al. 2016). Among the latest non-invasive methods there are the unmanned air vehicle (UAV) platforms, a real innovation, which proved to be capable for a variety of fields of applications, from the topographic survey to the monitoring of infrastructures. In the field of cultural heritage, for purposes ranging from the documentation to the detection of archaeological features, the use of UAVs is extremely functional, efficient and low-cost. Moreover, UAV flight requires much less time than that required by an Aircraft. A traditional aircraft must take off from an airport, sometimes far from the work area, while a drone, particularly rotary wing, can be transported in the area of interest and take off directly from there in a few minutes. The reason of the success of UAV are also the innovative vision, the very high-resolution of the obtainable products (orthophoto, digital elevations models) and the availability of easy tools of image processing based on Structure from Motion (SfM). (Neitzel & Klonowski 2011; Nex & Remondino 2013). SfM is a range imaging technique which allows to estimate three-dimensional objects from two-dimensional image sequences which may be coupled with local motion signals. Respect to conventional photogrammetry which requires a single stereo-pair, SfM needs multiple, overlapping photographs as input to feature extraction and 3-D reconstruction algorithms. In SfM the geometry of the scene, camera positions and orientation are solved simultaneously using a highly redundant, iterative bundle adjustment procedure, based on a database of features automatically extracted from a set of

  10. Old ages of two historical Romanian trees assessed by AMS radiocarbon dating

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patrut, Adrian, E-mail: apatrut@gmail.com [Babes-Bolyai University, Department of Chemistry, Arany Janos 11, 400028 Cluj-Napoca (Romania); Reden, Karl F. von [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Geology and Geophysics, NOSAMS Facility, 360 Woods Hole Rd., Mailstop 8, Woods Hole, MA 02543 (United States); Lowy, Daniel A. [FlexEl, LLC, 387 Technology Drive, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Patrut, Roxana T. [Babes-Bolyai University, Department of Biology and Geology, Gh. Bilascu 44, 400015 Cluj-Napoca (Romania); Lucian Vaida, D. [Museum of Border Regiment Nasaud, Granicerilor 19, 425200 Nasaud (Romania); Margineanu, Dragos [Babes-Bolyai University, Department of Chemistry, Arany Janos 11, 400028 Cluj-Napoca (Romania)

    2013-01-15

    Two large Romanian poplars are considered to be associated with significant historical events of the past. In order to verify these claims, wood samples collected from the broken trunks of the two poplars were radiocarbon dated by AMS. The oldest radiocarbon dates were found to be 275 {+-} 20 bp for the black poplar of Mocod and 316 {+-} 22 bp for the gray poplar of Rafaila. These values correspond to calibrated ages of 365 {+-} 10 and 465 {+-} 25 years, respectively. The dating results indicate old ages for the two trees, i.e., 455 years for the Mocod poplar and 560 years for the Rafaila poplar. Such age values validate historical information on the two large Romanian trees.

  11. Consistency assessment with global and bridging development strategies in emerging markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gang; Chen, Josh; Quan, Hui; Shentu, Yue

    2013-11-01

    Global trial strategy with the participation of all major regions including countries from emerging markets surely increases new drug development efficiency. Nevertheless, there are circumstances in which some countries in emerging markets cannot join the original global trial. To evaluate the extrapolability of the original trial results to a new country, a bridging trial in the country has to be conducted. In this paper, we first evaluate the efficiency loss of the bridging trial strategy compared to that of the global trial strategy as a function of between-study variability from consistency assessment perspective. The provided evidence should encourage countries in emerging markets to make a greater effort to participate in the original global trial. We then discuss sample size requirement for desired assurance probability for consistency assessment based on various approaches for both global and bridging trial strategies. Examples are presented for numerical demonstration and comparisons.

  12. Accounting for environmental flow requirements in global water assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pastor, A.V.; Ludwig, F.; Biemans, H.; Hoff, H.; Kabat, P.

    2014-01-01

    As the water requirement for food production and other human needs grows, quantification of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) is necessary to assess the amount of water needed to sustain freshwater ecosystems. EFRs are the result of the quantification of water necessary to sustain the riverine

  13. The new portfolio of global precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre suitable to assess and quantify the global water cycle and resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Udo; Ziese, Markus; Meyer-Christoffer, Anja; Finger, Peter; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas

    2016-10-01

    Precipitation plays an important role in the global energy and water cycle. Accurate knowledge of precipitation amounts reaching the land surface is of special importance for fresh water assessment and management related to land use, agriculture and hydrology, incl. risk reduction of flood and drought. High interest in long-term precipitation analyses arises from the needs to assess climate change and its impacts on all spatial scales. In this framework, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) has been established in 1989 on request of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It is operated by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, National Meteorological Service of Germany) as a German contribution to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). This paper provides information on the most recent update of GPCC's gridded data product portfolio including example use cases.

  14. Force Structure: Actions Needed to Improve DOD’s Ability to Manage, Assess, and Report on Global Defense Posture Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-02

    Representatives Subject: Force Structure: Actions Needed to Improve DOD’s Ability to Manage, Assess, and Report on Global Defense Posture ...as well as the fidelity of the global basing plan given the rapidly changing global security environment. GAO-09-706R Global Defense Posture ...to Manage, Assess, and Report on Global Defense Posture Initiatives 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S

  15. Systematic high-resolution assessment of global hydropower potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick C.

    2017-01-01

    Population growth, increasing energy demand and the depletion of fossil fuel reserves necessitate a search for sustainable alternatives for electricity generation. Hydropower could replace a large part of the contribution of gas and oil to the present energy mix. However, previous high-resolution estimates of hydropower potential have been local, and have yet to be applied on a global scale. This study is the first to formally present a detailed evaluation of the hydropower potential of each location, based on slope and discharge of each river in the world. The gross theoretical hydropower potential is approximately 52 PWh/year divided over 11.8 million locations. This 52 PWh/year is equal to 33% of the annually required energy, while the present energy production by hydropower plants is just 3% of the annually required energy. The results of this study: all potentially interesting locations for hydroelectric power plants, are available online. PMID:28178329

  16. Assessment of Global Variability in UTBB MOSFETs in Subthreshold Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergej Makovejev

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The global variability of ultra-thin body and buried oxide (UTBB MOSFETs in subthreshold and off regimes of operation is analyzed. The variability of the off-state drain current, subthreshold slope, drain-induced barrier lowering (DIBL, gate leakage current, threshold voltage and their correlations are considered. Two threshold voltage extraction techniques were used. It is shown that the transconductance over drain current (gm/Id method is preferable for variability studies. It is demonstrated that the subthreshold drain current variability in short channel devices cannot be described by threshold voltage variability. It is suggested to include the effective body factor incorporating short channel effects in order to properly model the subthreshold drain current variability.

  17. QUANTITATIVE MEASUREMENT AND ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION OF COMPANIES AND MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Kovtun

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The results of improving the author’s methodology linked with the assessment of companies’ and markets’ globalization level were presented in this paper. Based on the analysis of the global companies’ and global markets’ features referred to in scientific literature, the specifications which can be used to determine the globalization level of companies and markets were suggested. In addition, the globalization level of the largest top-ten companies (according to the rating of Forbes Global 2000 Leading Companies in 2015 was identified as well as that of corresponding industry markets: auto and truck manufacturers, major banks, software and programming, large department stores (retailers, telecommunication services, electronics producers, electronics, oil and gas operations.

  18. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  19. What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

    2016-11-01

    Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences in projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.

  20. Empowerment and Education. A historical study into the determinants of global educational participation of women, ca. 1850-2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vleuten, L. van der

    2016-01-01

    The research ‘Empowerment and Education’ focuses on global inequalities in the progress of education in relation to empowerment of women in the period 1850 to 2010. My thesis starts with a number of broader reasons for differences in education (including school attendance laws, child labor laws and

  1. Framework for e-learning assessment in dental education: a global model for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arevalo, Carolina R; Bayne, Stephen C; Beeley, Josie A; Brayshaw, Christine J; Cox, Margaret J; Donaldson, Nora H; Elson, Bruce S; Grayden, Sharon K; Hatzipanagos, Stylianos; Johnson, Lynn A; Reynolds, Patricia A; Schönwetter, Dieter J

    2013-05-01

    The framework presented in this article demonstrates strategies for a global approach to e-curricula in dental education by considering a collection of outcome assessment tools. By combining the outcomes for overall assessment, a global model for a pilot project that applies e-assessment tools to virtual learning environments (VLE), including haptics, is presented. Assessment strategies from two projects, HapTEL (Haptics in Technology Enhanced Learning) and UDENTE (Universal Dental E-learning), act as case-user studies that have helped develop the proposed global framework. They incorporate additional assessment tools and include evaluations from questionnaires and stakeholders' focus groups. These measure each of the factors affecting the classical teaching/learning theory framework as defined by Entwistle in a standardized manner. A mathematical combinatorial approach is proposed to join these results together as a global assessment. With the use of haptic-based simulation learning, exercises for tooth preparation assessing enamel and dentine were compared to plastic teeth in manikins. Equivalence for student performance for haptic versus traditional preparation methods was established, thus establishing the validity of the haptic solution for performing these exercises. Further data collected from HapTEL are still being analyzed, and pilots are being conducted to validate the proposed test measures. Initial results have been encouraging, but clearly the need persists to develop additional e-assessment methods for new learning domains.

  2. Integrating a Detailed Agricultural Model in a Global Economic Framework: New methods for assessment of climate mitigation and adaptation opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Calvin, K.; Zhang, X.; Wise, M.; West, T. O.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change and food security are global issues increasingly linked through human decision making that takes place across all scales from on-farm management actions to international climate negotiations. Understanding how agricultural systems can respond to climate change, through mitigation or adaptation, while still supplying sufficient food to feed a growing global population, thus requires a multi-sector tool in a global economic framework. Integrated assessment models are one such tool, however they are typically driven by historical aggregate statistics of production in combination with exogenous assumptions of future trends in agricultural productivity; they are not yet capable of exploring agricultural management practices as climate adaptation or mitigation strategies. Yet there are agricultural models capable of detailed biophysical modeling of farm management and climate impacts on crop yield, soil erosion and C and greenhouse gas emissions, although these are typically applied at point scales that are incompatible with coarse resolution integrated assessment modeling. To combine the relative strengths of these modeling systems, we are using the agricultural model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), applied in a geographic data framework for regional analyses, to provide input to the global economic model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). The initial phase of our approach focuses on a pilot region of the Midwest United States, a highly productive agricultural area. We apply EPIC, a point based biophysical process model, at 60 m spatial resolution within this domain and aggregate the results to GCAM agriculture and land use subregions for the United States. GCAM is then initialized with multiple management options for key food and bioenergy crops. Using EPIC to distinguish these management options based on grain yield, residue yield, soil C change and cost differences, GCAM then simulates the optimum distribution of the available

  3. Accuracy assessment of seven global land cover datasets over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yongke; Xiao, Pengfeng; Feng, Xuezhi; Li, Haixing

    2017-03-01

    Land cover (LC) is the vital foundation to Earth science. Up to now, several global LC datasets have arisen with efforts of many scientific communities. To provide guidelines for data usage over China, nine LC maps from seven global LC datasets (IGBP DISCover, UMD, GLC, MCD12Q1, GLCNMO, CCI-LC, and GlobeLand30) were evaluated in this study. First, we compared their similarities and discrepancies in both area and spatial patterns, and analysed their inherent relations to data sources and classification schemes and methods. Next, five sets of validation sample units (VSUs) were collected to calculate their accuracy quantitatively. Further, we built a spatial analysis model and depicted their spatial variation in accuracy based on the five sets of VSUs. The results show that, there are evident discrepancies among these LC maps in both area and spatial patterns. For LC maps produced by different institutes, GLC 2000 and CCI-LC 2000 have the highest overall spatial agreement (53.8%). For LC maps produced by same institutes, overall spatial agreement of CCI-LC 2000 and 2010, and MCD12Q1 2001 and 2010 reach up to 99.8% and 73.2%, respectively; while more efforts are still needed if we hope to use these LC maps as time series data for model inputting, since both CCI-LC and MCD12Q1 fail to represent the rapid changing trend of several key LC classes in the early 21st century, in particular urban and built-up, snow and ice, water bodies, and permanent wetlands. With the highest spatial resolution, the overall accuracy of GlobeLand30 2010 is 82.39%. For the other six LC datasets with coarse resolution, CCI-LC 2010/2000 has the highest overall accuracy, and following are MCD12Q1 2010/2001, GLC 2000, GLCNMO 2008, IGBP DISCover, and UMD in turn. Beside that all maps exhibit high accuracy in homogeneous regions; local accuracies in other regions are quite different, particularly in Farming-Pastoral Zone of North China, mountains in Northeast China, and Southeast Hills. Special

  4. How to assess the Efficiency and "Uncertainty" of Global Sensitivity Analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghnegahdar, Amin; Razavi, Saman

    2016-04-01

    Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an important paradigm for understanding model behavior, characterizing uncertainty, improving model calibration, etc. Conventional "global" SA (GSA) approaches are rooted in different philosophies, resulting in different and sometime conflicting and/or counter-intuitive assessment of sensitivity. Moreover, most global sensitivity techniques are highly computationally demanding to be able to generate robust and stable sensitivity metrics over the entire model response surface. Accordingly, a novel sensitivity analysis method called Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS) is introduced to overcome the aforementioned issues. VARS uses the Variogram concept to efficiently provide a comprehensive assessment of global sensitivity across a range of scales within the parameter space. Based on the VARS principles, in this study we present innovative ideas to assess (1) the efficiency of GSA algorithms and (2) the level of confidence we can assign to a sensitivity assessment. We use multiple hydrological models with different levels of complexity to explain the new ideas.

  5. Building global models for fat and total protein content in raw milk based on historical spectroscopic data in the visible and short-wave near infrared range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melenteva, Anastasiia; Galyanin, Vladislav; Savenkova, Elena; Bogomolov, Andrey

    2016-07-15

    A large set of fresh cow milk samples collected from many suppliers over a large geographical area in Russia during a year has been analyzed by optical spectroscopy in the range 400-1100 nm in accordance with previously developed scatter-based technique. The global (i.e. resistant to seasonal, genetic, regional and other variations of the milk composition) models for fat and total protein content, which were built using partial least-squares (PLS) regression, exhibit satisfactory prediction performances enabling their practical application in the dairy. The root mean-square errors of prediction (RMSEP) were 0.09 and 0.10 for fat and total protein content, respectively. The issues of raw milk analysis and multivariate modelling based on the historical spectroscopic data have been considered and approaches to the creation of global models and their transfer between the instruments have been proposed. Availability of global models should significantly facilitate the dissemination of optical spectroscopic methods for the laboratory and in-line quantitative milk analysis.

  6. Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.

  7. Strategies for rapid global earthquake impact estimation: the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter summarizes the state-of-the-art for rapid earthquake impact estimation. It details the needs and challenges associated with quick estimation of earthquake losses following global earthquakes, and provides a brief literature review of various approaches that have been used in the past. With this background, the chapter introduces the operational earthquake loss estimation system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) known as PAGER (for Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response). It also details some of the ongoing developments of PAGER’s loss estimation models to better supplement the operational empirical models, and to produce value-added web content for a variety of PAGER users.

  8. Aviation Medicine: global historical perspectives and the development of Aviation Medicine alongside the growth of Singapore's aviation landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, W H; Low, R; Singh, J

    2011-05-01

    Aviation Medicine traces its roots to high altitude physiology more than 400 years ago. Since then, great strides have been made in this medical specialty, initially catalysed by the need to reduce pilot medical attrition during the World Wars, and more recently, fuelled by the explosive growth in globalised commercial air travel. This paper traces the historical milestones in Aviation Medicine, and maps its development in Singapore since the 1960s. Advancements in military aviation platforms and technology as well as the establishment of Singapore as an international aviation hub have propelled Aviation Medicine in Singapore to the forefront of many domains. These span Aviation Physiology training, selection medical standards, performance maximisation, as well as crew and passenger protection against communicable diseases arising from air travel. The year 2011 marks the centennial milestone of the first manned flight in Singapore, paving the way for further growth of Aviation Medicine as a mature specialty in Singapore.

  9. “Which Child Left Behind”: Historical Issues Regarding Equity in Science Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Joy Cumming

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of learning plays a dominant role in formal education in the forms of determining features of curriculum that are emphasized, pedagogic methods that teachers use with their students, and parents’ and employers’ understanding of how well students have performed. A common perception is that fair assessment applies the same mode of assessment and content focus for all students—the approach of assessments in international comparative studies of science achievement. This article examines research evidence demonstrating that the act of assessment is not neutral—different forms of assessment advantage or disadvantage groups of students on the basis of family backgrounds, gender, race, or disability. Assessment that implicitly or explicitly captures the social capital of the child serves to consolidate, not address, educational equity. The article provides an overview of ways that science curriculum focus and assessment can introduce bias in the identification of student achievement. It examines the effect of changes to curriculum and assessment approaches in science, and relationships between assessment of science and the cultural context of the student. Recommendations are provided for science–assessment research to address bias for different groups of students.

  10. Quality assessment and forecast sensitivity of global remote sensing observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallick, Swapan; Dutta, Devajyoti; Min, Ki-Hong

    2017-03-01

    The satellite-derived wind from cloud and moisture features of geostationary satellites is an important data source for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These datasets and global positioning system radio occultation (GPSRO) satellite radiances are assimilated in the four-dimensional variational atmospheric data assimilation system of the UKMO Unified Model in India. This study focuses on the importance of these data in the NWP system and their impact on short-term 24-h forecasts. The quality of the wind observations is compared to the short-range forecast from the model background. The observation increments (observation minus background) are computed as the satellite-derived wind minus the model forecast with a 6-h lead time. The results show the model background has a large easterly wind component compared to satellite observations. The importance of each observation in the analysis is studied using an adjoint-based forecast sensitivity to observation method. The results show that at least around 50% of all types of satellite observations are beneficial. In terms of individual contribution, METEOSAT-7 shows a higher percentage of impact (nearly 50%), as compared to GEOS, MTSAT-2 and METEOSAT-10, all of which have a less than 25% impact. In addition, the impact of GPSRO, infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) and atmospheric infrared sounder (AIRS) data is calculated. The GPSRO observations have beneficial impacts up to 50 km. Over the Southern Hemisphere, the high spectral radiances from IASI and AIRS show a greater impact than over the Northern Hemisphere. The results in this study can be used for further improvements in the use of new and existing satellite observations.

  11. Assessment of historical surface-water quality data in southwestern Colorado, 1990-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Lisa D.; Schaffrath, Keelin R.; Linard, Joshua I.

    2013-01-01

    The spatial and temporal distribution of selected physical and chemical surface-water-quality characteristics were analyzed at stream sites throughout the Dolores and San Juan River Basins in southwestern Colorado using historical data collected from 1990 through 2005 by various local, State, Tribal, and Federal agencies. Overall, streams throughout the study area were well oxygenated. Values of pH generally were near neutral to slightly alkaline throughout most of the study area with the exception of the upper Animas River Basin near Silverton where acidic conditions existed at some sites because of hydrothermal alteration and(or) historical mining. The highest concentrations of dissolved aluminum, total recoverable iron, dissolved lead, and dissolved zinc were measured at sites located in the upper Animas River Basin. Thirty-two sites throughout the study area had at least one measured concentration of total mercury that exceeded the State chronic aquatic-life criterion of 0.01 μg/L. Concentrations of dissolved selenium at some sites exceeded the State chronic water-quality standard of 4.6 μg/L. Total ammonia, nitrate, nitrite, and total phosphorus concentrations generally were low throughout the study area. Overall, results from the trend analyses indicated improvement in water-quality conditions as a result of operation of the Paradox Valley Unit in the Dolores River Basin and irrigation and water-delivery system improvements made in the McElmo Creek Basin (Lower San Juan River Basin) and Mancos River Valley (Upper San Juan River Basin).

  12. Historical and contemporary imagery to assess ecosystem change on the Arctic coastal plain of northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tape, Ken D.; Pearce, John M.; Walworth, Dennis; Meixell, Brandt W.; Fondell, Tom F.; Gustine, David D.; Flint, Paul L.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Ward, David H.

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low-relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at unprecedented rates. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) research initiative was developed to investigate and forecast these rapid changes in the physical environment of the Arctic, and the associated changes to wildlife populations, in order to inform key management decisions by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Forecasting future wildlife responses to changes in the Arctic can benefit greatly from historical records that inform what changes have already occurred. Several Arctic wildlife and plant species have already responded to climatic and physical changes to the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Thus, we located historical aerial imagery to improve our understanding of recent habitat changes and the associated response to such changes by wildlife populations.

  13. USGS National and Global Oil and Gas Assessment Project-Burgos, Tampico-Misantla, and Sabinas Provinces, Northeast Mexico, Assessment Unit Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Assessment Unit is the fundamental unit used in the National and Global Petroleum Assessment Project for the assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources....

  14. Can International Large-Scale Assessments Inform a Global Learning Goal? Insights from the Learning Metrics Task Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winthrop, Rebecca; Simons, Kate Anderson

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, the global community has developed a range of initiatives to inform the post-2015 global development agenda. In the education community, International Large-Scale Assessments (ILSAs) have an important role to play in advancing a global shift in focus to access plus learning. However, there are a number of other assessment tools…

  15. Inequality measures perform differently in global and local assessments: An exploratory computational experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Yen-Sheng

    2015-11-01

    Inequality measures are widely used in both the academia and public media to help us understand how incomes and wealth are distributed. They can be used to assess the distribution of a whole society-global inequality-as well as inequality of actors' referent networks-local inequality. How different is local inequality from global inequality? Formalizing the structure of reference groups as a network, the paper conducted a computational experiment to see how the structure of complex networks influences the difference between global and local inequality assessed by a selection of inequality measures. It was found that local inequality tends to be higher than global inequality when population size is large; network is dense and heterophilously assorted, and income distribution is less dispersed. The implications of the simulation findings are discussed.

  16. Prediction of malnutrition using modified subjective global assessment-dialysis malnutrition score in patients on hemodialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasantha Janardhan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Malnutrition is widely prevalent among patients on hemodialysis. Malnutrition can be estimated using a fully quantitative scoring system Subjective Global Assessment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score which is simple, reliable and dynamic. The primary objective of the study was to assess the severity of malnutrition in patients with end stage renal disease and undergoing hemodialysis in a tertiary care teaching hospital in Chennai, using Subjective Global Asses sment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score and correlate it with standard indicators of malnutrition like anthropometric and biochemical parameters of the study population by Pearson′s correlation. Anthropometric assessment included height, body weight, triceps skin fold thickness, mid arm circumference, mid arm muscle circumference % and biochemical parameters included serum albumin, transferrin, ferritin, total protein, total cholesterol, blood urea nitrogen and creatinine. Based on the scores, of the 66 patients, 91% were moderately malnourished. There was a significant negative correlation between modified Subjective Global Assessment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score and anthropometric measures such as triceps skin fold thickness, mid arm circumference, mid arm muscle circumference; biochemical markers such as albumin, transferrin and ferritin. The data obtained from this study confirm that a high degree of malnutrition was prevalent in patients on hemodialysis, as shown by anthropometric assessment, biochemical markers of malnutrition and Subjective Global Assessment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score. Nutritional status as determined by Subjective Global Assessment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score is a useful and reliable index for identifying patients at risk for malnutrition and it correlates well with anthropometric and biochemical assessment. may be integrated in regular assessment of malnutrition in patients on maintenance hemodialysis.

  17. Porphyry copper assessment of British Columbia and Yukon Territory, Canada: Chapter C in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihalasky, Mark J.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Frost, Thomas P.; Ludington, Steve

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey does regional, national, and global assessments of resources (mineral, energy, water, biologic) to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources that may be present in undiscovered deposits.

  18. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming increases the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and this could lead to more intense rainfalls and possibly increasing natural hazards in the form of flooding in some regions. This implies that traditional practice of using historical hydrological records alone is somewhat limited for supporting long-term water infrastructure planning. This has motivated recent global scale studies to evaluate river flood risks (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014, Sadoff et al., 2015) and adaptations benefits (e.g., Jongman et al., 2015). To support decision-making in river flood risk reduction, this study takes a further step to examine the benefits and corresponding residual risks for a range of flood protection levels. To do that, we channelled runoff information of a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and each CMIP5 model (historic and future periods) into a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011). We incorporated the latest global river width data (Yamazaki et al., 2014) into CaMa-Flood and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the flood protection benefits. We quantify the corresponding residual risks using a mathematical approach that is consistent with the modelling structure of CaMa-Flood. Globally and regionally, we find that the benefits of flood protection level peak somewhere between 20 and 500 years; residual risks diminish

  19. Historical Relationship Between Performance Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Other Types of Risk Assessment in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RECHARD,ROBERT P.

    2000-07-14

    This paper describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed to the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built upon methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty and the tools used to evaluate it.

  20. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data – Part 1: Assessment of Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. McMahon

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs and within a GCM. Uncertainty between GCM projections of future climate can be assessed through analysis of runs of a given scenario from a wide range of GCMs. Within GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The objective of this, the first of two complementary papers, is to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by identifying and removing poorly performing GCMs prior to the analysis presented in the second paper. Here we assess how well 46 runs from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3 GCMs are able to reproduce observed precipitation and temperature climatological statistics. The performance of each GCM in reproducing these statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the CRU 3.10 gridded dataset and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index and RMSE between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following five models as the better performing models for the next phase of our analysis in assessing the uncertainty in runoff estimated from GCM projections of precipitation and temperature: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, MIROCM (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo, National

  1. Global Geometric Properties of Martian Impact Craters: An Assessment from Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Digital Elevation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garvin, J. B.; Frawley, J. J.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Schnetzler, C.

    2000-01-01

    Global geometric characteristics of topographically fresh impact craters have been assessed, for the first time, from gridded MOLA topography. Global trends of properties such as depth/diameter differ from previous estimates. Regional differences are observed.

  2. Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi-Stressor Vulnerability Assessments (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Aquatic Ecosystems and Global Change: The Challenges of conducting Multi-Stressor Global Change Vulnerability Assessments. This report investigates the issues and challenges associated with identifying, calculating, and ...

  3. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  4. An Approach for Assessing the Benefits of IT Investments in Global Supply Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Betz, Michaela; Henningsson, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    -duced by the technology as an isolated product. In contrast, research on global supply chains has shown that benefits generated from IT investments in this domain are typically generated by the coor-dinated use of many stakeholders and by technologies producing complimentary effects in systemic relationships....... The assessment approach in this paper brings the contingent inter-organizational and technological dependencies of IT investments to the forefront of the assessment. It provides actors in industries relating to global supply chains the means to better apprehend the possible benefits from an IT investment...

  5. An Assessment of Global Oral Health Education in U.S. Dental Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Janet; Gluch, Joan I

    2017-02-01

    Dental schools need to produce graduates who are adequately prepared to respond to the complex needs and challenges of the increasingly diverse and interconnected world in which they will practice dentistry. To enhance discussions about the coverage of global oral health competencies in dental education, the aims of this study were to assess how global health education is currently incorporated into predoctoral dental training in the U.S. and which global oral health competencies are being covered. Surveys were emailed to all 64 accredited U.S. dental schools during the 2015-16 academic year. Respondents from 52 schools completed the survey (response rate 81%). The results showed that social determinants of oral diseases and conditions, how to identify barriers to use of oral health services, and how to work with patients who have limited dental health literacy were covered in the greatest number of responding schools' curricula. Key areas of global health curricula that were covered rarely included global dental infrastructure, data collection design, and horizontal and vertical programming approaches to health improvement. Despite current dialogue on the addition of global oral health competencies to dental curricula, only 41% of the responding schools were currently planning to expand their global oral health education. Based on these results, the authors conclude that it may be most feasible for dental schools to add recommended global oral health competencies to their curricula by incorporating didactic content into already established courses.

  6. Preliminary assessment of an early historic (2000 year old) shipwreck at Godawaya, Sri Lanka

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gaur, A.S.; Muthucumaran, R.; Chandraratne, W.M.; Orillandeda, B.C.; Manders, M.; Karunarathna, S.; Weerasinghe, P.; Dayananda, A.M.A.; Zainab, T.; Sudaryadi, A.; Ghani, K.A.B.A.; Wahjudin, J.; Samaraweera, N.

    An international team comprised of experts in diving and underwater archaeology from Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines participated in the assessment of the shipwreck at Godawaya, Sri Lanka. The main objective of the exploration...

  7. Accuracy Assessment Points for Fort Laramie National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — The accuracy assessment field work was performed in August and September, 1998 to verify the accuracy of the vegetation communities spatial data developed by the...

  8. Field Plot and Accuracy Assessment Points for Bent's Old Fort National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — Accuracy Assessment, Observation and Plot Points. Plots within the park were identified and sampled in the summer of 2005. In the summer of 2006, randomly selected...

  9. Field Plot and Accuracy Assessment Points for Palo Alto Battlefield National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — Accuracy Assessment, Observation and Plot Points. Plot data were collected from 2000-2003; however, minimal attributes were maintained and a plots database was not...

  10. Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project - Field Plots, Observation and Accuracy Assessment Points

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This metadata is for the 2008 vegetation (classification) field plots (spatial database) and 2010 accuracy assessment points (spatial database) created from the...

  11. Developmental Disabilities Modification of Children’s Global Assessment Scale (DD-CGAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Ann; Lecavalier, Luc; Arnold, L. Eugene; Aman, Michael G.; Scahill, Lawrence; Stigler, Kimberly A.; Johnson, Cynthia R.; McDougle, Christopher J.; Vitiello, Benedetto

    2007-01-01

    Background Interventions for pervasive developmental disorders (PDD) aim to alleviate symptoms and improve functioning. To measure global functioning in treatment studies, the Children’s Global Assessment Scale was modified and psychometric properties of the revised version (DD-CGAS) were assessed in children with PDD. Methods Developmental disabilities-relevant descriptors were developed for the DD-CGAS and administration procedures were established to enhance rater consistency. Ratings of clinical case vignettes were used to assess inter-rater reliability and temporal stability. Validity was assessed by correlating the DD-CGAS with measures of functioning and symptoms in 83 youngsters with PDD. Sensitivity to change was assessed by comparing change from baseline to post-treatment with change on the Aberrant Behavior Checklist – Irritability and Clinical Global Impressions–Improvement subscale scores in a subset of 14 children. Results Inter-rater reliability (ICC=.79) and temporal stability (average ICC = .86) were excellent. DD-CGAS scores correlated with measures of functioning and symptoms with moderate to large effect sizes. Changes on the DD-CGAS correlated with changes on the ABC-I (r=.−71) and CGI-I (r=−.52). The pre-post DD-CGAS change had an effect size of .72. Conclusions The DD-CGAS is a reliable instrument with apparent convergent validity for measuring global functioning of children with PDD in treatment studies. PMID:17276748

  12. Petascale Diagnostic Assessment of the Global Portfolio Rainfall Space Missions' Ability to Support Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, P. M.; Chaney, N.; Herman, J. D.; Wood, E. F.; Ferringer, M. P.

    2015-12-01

    This research represents a multi-institutional collaboration between Cornell University, The Aerospace Corporation, and Princeton University that has completed a Petascale diagnostic assessment of the current 10 satellite missions providing rainfall observations. Our diagnostic assessment has required four core tasks: (1) formally linking high-resolution astrodynamics design and coordination of space assets with their global hydrological impacts within a Petascale "many-objective" global optimization framework, (2) developing a baseline diagnostic evaluation of a 1-degree resolution global implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to establish the required satellite observation frequencies and coverage to maintain acceptable global flood forecasts, (3) evaluating the limitations and vulnerabilities of the full suite of current satellite precipitation missions including the recently approved Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, and (4) conceptualizing the next generation spaced-based platforms for water cycle observation. Our team exploited over 100 Million hours of computing access on the 700,000+ core Blue Waters machine to radically advance our ability to discover and visualize key system tradeoffs and sensitivities. This project represents to our knowledge the first attempt to develop a 10,000 member Monte Carlo global hydrologic simulation at one degree resolution that characterizes the uncertain effects of changing the available frequencies of satellite precipitation on drought and flood forecasts. The simulation—optimization components of the work have set a theoretical baseline for the best possible frequencies and coverages for global precipitation given unlimited investment, broad international coordination in reconfiguring existing assets, and new satellite constellation design objectives informed directly by key global hydrologic forecasting requirements. Our research poses a step towards realizing the integrated

  13. Characterizing eye movements during temporal and global quality assessment of h.264 compressed video sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantel, Claire; Guyader, Nathalie; Ladret, Patricia; Ionescu, Gelu; Kunlin, Thomas

    2012-03-01

    Studies have shown that the deployment of visual attention is closely link to the assessment of image or video quality, though this link is not yet fully understood. The influence of rating temporal quality of compressed videos over the way an observer deploys his attention is investigated in this paper. We set-up a subjective experiment in which the eye movements of observers are recorded during three different tasks: a free-viewing task (FT), a global quality assessment task and a temporal quality assessment task. The FT acts as a reference to which we compare the eye movements during the two other tasks. As previously shown, observers assessing global quality gaze at locations dissimilar to those fixated during the FT. For temporal quality assessment, it seems that the fixated locations are closer to FT than the global quality assessment fixated locations. Our results suggest that the locations observers look at do not depend on the displayed video quality level. Quality however influences the way participants look at videos: the lower the quality, the longer they gaze at a precise location. The area fixated seems to be much smaller during the quality assessment tasks than during the FT for either perfect or poor quality level. The evolution over time of all indicators suggests that, during the first 1 or 2 seconds, the signal properties of the videos are the main attractors for the participants' eye movements. Instructions only seem to play a role afterwards on the deployment of the participants' visual attention.

  14. Assessing the Effects of Corporate Social Responsibility Standards in Global Value Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund-Thomsen, Peter

    This paper considers the issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR) standard impact assessment in global value chains. CSR standards have proliferated in recent years, and several studies have attempted to assess their effects on local producers, workers, and the environment in developing...... countries. However, much less attention has been paid to the “dark side” of impact assessment – the ethical and political dilemmas that arise in the process of carrying out impact studies. This paper addresses this gap in literature, arguing that impact assessments of CSR standards may do more harm than...

  15. Breccia-pipe uranium mining in northern Arizona; estimate of resources and assessment of historical effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bills, Donald J.; Brown, Kristin M.; Alpine, Andrea E.; Otton, James K.; Van Gosen, Bradley S.; Hinck, Jo Ellen; Tillman, Fred D

    2011-01-01

    About 1 million acres of Federal land in the Grand Canyon region of Arizona were temporarily withdrawn from new mining claims in July 2009 by the Secretary of the Interior because of concern that increased uranium mining could have negative impacts on the land, water, people, and wildlife. During a 2-year interval, a Federal team led by the Bureau of Land Management is evaluating the effects of withdrawing these lands for extended periods. As part of this team, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a series of short-term studies to examine the historical effects of breccia-pipe uranium mining in the region. The USGS studies provide estimates of uranium resources affected by the possible land withdrawal, examine the effects of previous breccia-pipe mining, summarize water-chemistry data for streams and springs, and investigate potential biological pathways of exposure to uranium and associated contaminants. This fact sheet summarizes results through December 2009 and outlines further research needs.

  16. Visual assessment of BIPV retrofit design proposals for selected historical buildings using the saliency map method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ran Xu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available With the increasing awareness of energy efficiency, many old buildings have to undergo a massive facade energy retrofit. How to predict the visual impact which solar installations on the aesthetic cultural value of these buildings has been a heated debate in Switzerland (and throughout the world. The usual evaluation method to describe the visual impact of BIPV is based on semantic and qualitative descriptors, and strongly dependent on personal preferences. The evaluation scale is therefore relative, flexible and imprecise. This paper proposes a new method to accurately measure the visual impact which BIPV installations have on a historical building by using the saliency map method. By imitating working principles of the human eye, it is measured how much the BIPV design proposals differ from the original building facade in the aspect of attracting human visual attention. The result is directly presented in a quantitative manner, and can be used to compare the fitness of different BIPV design proposals. The measuring process is numeric, objective and more precise.  

  17. Life-cycle-assessment of the historical development of air pollution control and energy recovery in waste incineration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Anders; Riber, C.; Fruergaard, Thilde

    2010-01-01

    Incineration of municipal solid waste is a debated waste management technology. In some countries it is the main waste management option whereas in other countries it has been disregarded. The main discussion point on waste incineration is the release of air emissions from the combustion...... of the waste, but also the energy recovery efficiency has a large importance. The historical development of air pollution control in waste incineration was studied through life-cycle-assessment modelling of eight different air pollution control technologies. The results showed a drastic reduction...... in the release of air emissions and consequently a significant reduction in the potential environmental impacts of waste incineration. Improvements of a factor 0.85–174 were obtained in the different impact potentials as technology developed from no emission control at all, to the best available emission control...

  18. Data Mining of Historical Human Data to Assess the Risk of Injury due to Dynamic Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Jesica; Somers, Jeffrey T.; Newby, N.; Gernhardt, Michael

    2014-01-01

    deflection was determined from motion capture video of the impact test. HIC- 15 and BRIC were calculated from head acceleration responses. Given the number of human subjects for each test condition a confidence interval of injury probability will be obtained. RESULTS: Results will be discussed in terms of injury-risk probability estimates based on the human data set evaluated. Also, gaps in the data set will be identified. These gaps could be one of two types. One is areas where additional THOR testing would increase the comparable human data set, thereby improving confidence in the injury probability rate. The other is where additional human testing would assist in obtaining information on other acceleration levels or directions. DISCUSSION: The historical human data showed validity of the THOR ATD for supplemental testing. The historical human data are limited in scope, however. Further data are needed to characterize the effects of sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight on risk of injury

  19. CODEX: Assessing the Historical Context of Chemistry and Organics on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, F. Scott; Whitaker, Tom; Levine, Jonathan

    2014-05-01

    The Chemistry, Organics and Dating EXperiment (CODEX) is a laser desorption time-of-flight mass spectrometer designed for use on Mars, which, by varying the type of ionization used, can operate as an elemental detector, an organics detector, and a radiometric dating instrument. CODEX uses three ionization modes: A) laser ablation mass spectrometry (LAMS) to measure chemistry and isotopes, B) two-step laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (L2MS) to measure organics, and C) laser desorption resonance ionization mass spectrometry (LDRIMS) to measure rubidium-strontium geochronology. Using these modes sequentially, CODEX interrogates hundreds of locations on the surface of a drill core, each of which are initially cleaned by laser ablation to remove surface contaminants. Using microscopic mapping, CODEX places elemental chemistry observations in spatial and temporal context with organic signatures revealing the complex historical context of chemistry and organics. The modes of CODEX have been demonstrated on three well-known samples: a) the Boulder Creek Granite (chemistry and dating), b) the carbonaceous chondrite Murchison (organics and chemistry), and c) the Martian meteorite Zagami (dating). The BCG measurements result in a high-sensitivity chemistry measurements, with isotope ratio precision exceeding ±0.35%; using dating mode, we derived an average age of 1727±62 Ma, as compared to a TIMS age of 1700±40 Ma. The measurements of the Murchison meteorite revealed hundreds of organic compounds consistent with an abiotic carbonaceous chondrite, and elemental abundances that match previous work. Finally, Zagami is a Martian meteorite with a Rb-Sr age of 166±6 Ma. Our measurements result in an age of 170±105 Ma, consistent with the previously published dates, and an accuracy exceeding NASA requirements (±200 Ma).

  20. A holistic sustainability assessment tool for bioenergy using the Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP) sustainability indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hayashi, T.; Ierland, van E.C.; Zhu, X.

    2014-01-01

    In 2011 the Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP) released a set of indicators for sustainable bioenergy. However, two important issues still remain unresolved. One of them is the definition of “sustainability”, and the other is the lack of a holistic assessment tool for drawing conclusions from the i

  1. Patient-generated subjective global assessment : Innovation from paper to digital app

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ottery, Faith D.; Isenring, Elizabeth; Kasenic, Suzanne; DeBolt, Susan P.; Sealy, Martine J.; Jager-Wittenaar, Harriet

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), including the PG-SGA Short Form (SF, aka ‘abridged’), was originally developed in the mid 1990’s as a scored, patient self-report, paperbased instrument and has been widely validated. The PG-SGA (SF) has been used for screening, a

  2. Assessment of climatic factors influence on interannual changes in the global surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusakova, Maria; Karlin, Lev

    2014-05-01

    A model to assess a number of factors such as TSI, albedo, cloudiness and greenhouse gases including water vapour affecting global surface air temperature (SAT) changes has been developed. To develop the model solar energy transformation in the atmosphere and the other radiation fluxes transformation were investigated. It's a common knowledge that some part of the incoming solar energy is reflected into space by the Earth's surface, aerosol and cloud particles. A contribution of these components to changes in the reflected solar energy was assessed on the basis of developed linear parameterization. During the period of 2001 - 2010, clouds were found to be the basic contributor to the changes in reflected shortwave radiation. Some part of outgoing terrestrial radiation is retained in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases, water vapour and cloudiness. A contribution of these components to changes in the absorbed longwave radiation was assessed on the basis of developed linear parameterization. It was estimated that the contribution of water vapour was dominant during the analyzed period. The developed parameterization of global albedo made it possible to assess the contribution of TSI to global SAT changes. Making use of the parameterizations listed above the model has been improved. The model calculations showed that the our projections of global SAT to 2030 were lower than IPCC estimates.

  3. Historic Assessment of Agricultural Impacts on Soil and Soil Organic Carbon Erosion in an Ohio Watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hao, Yueli (Other); Lal, Rattan (Other); Izaurralde, R Cesar C.(BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)); Ritchie, Jerry (Other); Owens, Lloyd (Other); Hothem, Daniel (Other)

    2002-02-01

    Agricultural management affects soil and soil organic carbon (SOC) erosion. The effect was assessed for a watershed (o.79 ha, 10% slope steepness, 132 m slope length) at the North Appalachian Experimental Watershed research station near Coshocton, Ohio, from 1951 to 1998

  4. Assessment of Cognitive Skills in the USSR: Historical Trends and Current Developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holowinsky, Ivan Z.

    1985-01-01

    Assessment practices in the Soviet Union reveal three trends. The so-called pedology movement was replaced in the 1930s by an anti-testing policy, followed more recently by a reassessment of psychodiagnostic practices. Late 1970s and the beginning of 1980s reveal strong interests in psychodiagnosis. (Author/CL)

  5. Assessing the global zoo response to the amphibian crisis through 20-year trends in captive collections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Jeff; Patel, Freisha; Griffiths, Richard A; Young, Richard P

    2016-02-01

    Global amphibian declines are one of the biggest challenges currently facing the conservation community, and captive breeding is one way to address this crisis. Using information from the International Species Information System zoo network, we examined trends in global zoo amphibian holdings across species, zoo region, and species geographical region of origin from 1994 to 2014. These trends were compared before and after the 2004 Global Amphibian Assessment to assess whether any changes occurred and whether zoo amphibian conservation effort had increased. The numbers of globally threatened species (GTS) and their proportional representation in global zoo holdings increased and this rate of increase was significantly greater after 2004. North American, European, and Oceanian GTS were best represented in zoos globally, and proportions of Oceanian GTS held increased the most since 2004. South American and Asian GTS had the lowest proportional representation in zoos. At a regional zoo level, European zoos held the lowest proportions of GTS, and this proportion did not increase after 2004. Since 1994, the number of species held in viable populations has increased, and these species are distributed among more institutions. However, as of 2014, zoos held 6.2% of globally threatened amphibians, a much smaller figure than for other vertebrate groups and one that falls considerably short of the number of species for which ex situ management may be desirable. Although the increased effort zoos have put into amphibian conservation over the past 20 years is encouraging, more focus is needed on ex situ conservation priority species. This includes building expertise and capacity in countries that hold them and tracking existing conservation efforts if the evidence-based approach to amphibian conservation planning at a global level is to be further developed.

  6. Forming, transfer and globalization of medical-pharmaceutical knowledge in South East Asian missions (17th to 18th c.) - historical dimensions and modern perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostou, Sabine

    2015-06-01

    From the 17th to the 18th centuries, missionaries in Southeast Asia dedicated themselves to providing and establishing a professional medical-pharmaceutical supply for the local population and therefore explored the genuine Materia medica for easily available and affordable remedies, especially medicinal plants. In characteristic medical-pharmaceutical compendia, which can be classified as missionary pharmacopoeias, they laid down their knowledge to advise others and to guarantee a professional health care. As their knowledge often resulted from an exchange with indigenous communities, these compendia provide essential information about traditional plant uses of Southeast Asian people. Individual missionaries such as the Jesuit Georg Joseph Kamel (1661-1706) not only strove to explore medicinal plants but performed botanical studies and even composed comprehensive herbals. The Jesuit missionaries in particular played roles in both the order's own global network of transfer of medicinal drugs and knowledge about the application, and within the contemporary local and European scientific networks which included, for example, the famous Royal Society of London. The results of their studies were distributed all over the world, were introduced into the practical Materia medica of other regions, and contributed significantly to the academization of knowledge. In our article we will explain the different intentions and methods of exploring, the resulting works and the consequences for the forming of the pharmaceutical and scientific knowledge. Finally, we will show the options which the works of the missionaries can offer for the saving of traditional ethnopharmacological knowledge and for the development of modern phytotherapeutics and pharmaceutical supply. The publication is based on a comprehensive study on the phenomenon of missionary pharmacy which has been published as a book in 2011 (Anagnostou, 2011a) and shows now the potential of historical medical

  7. Quantitative flood risk assessment in historic cities: sensitivity to hydraulic modeling and open socio-economic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Castelli, Fabio; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Mazzanti, Bernardo

    2014-05-01

    The assessment of flood risk in urban areas is considered nowadays a crucial issue to be addressed by technicians and public authorities and requires the estimation of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Each step of the risk assessment brings its uncertainties to the final result, thus the analysis of the sensitivity to the different contributors is required. Since the damages are generally evaluated through stage-damage functions one of the most important contribution is the estimated value of the water depth. Water depth is the outcome of hydraulic models that can be implemented with different modeling approaches and levels of spatial detail, thus providing flood depth maps that may differ in the extension of the inundated area and in the flood depth value. It is generally argued that 2D models are the most suitable to describe flood behavior in the urban environment although most of applications are carried out in small and sparse urban areas. In the historic cities a 2D model provides reliable results if the grid size is small enough to describe the street/building pattern, implying long simulation runs. Another contribution is given by monetary values assigned to the damage categories that may come from different proxy variables and may oscillate according to the real estate quotations. The risk assessment here presented is made possible thanks to a methodology based on the open data, both socio-economic and territorial, that are available in the web. In this work the risk assessment procedure and the sensitivity analysis are applied to the main cities located along the Arno river, Pisa and Florence (Italy) that are usually considered of broad interest for the importance of urban and cultural heritage. The risk is estimated accounting for structures, household contents, commercial and tertiary sectors which are the most representative of the studied areas. The evaluation and mapping of micro-scale flood risk is carried out in a GIS environment using open data

  8. Assessment study of the cultural resource value of the historic districts%历史街区文化资源价值评估研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毛文; 周云

    2014-01-01

    为了对历史街区文化资源进行更好的保护和利用,采用简单相关性分析、层次分析法、市场调研修正等方法构建了历史街区文化资源价值评估体系,得到提升街区价值的重要影响因素,为历史街区的保护更新提供了参考依据。%In order to protect and utilize the cultural resource value of the historic districts, using pearson, AHP, market research amendment, the paper build the assessment system of the cultural resource value of the historic districts, get important factors to enhance the value of historic districts, provided reference for the protection and renewal of historical block.

  9. Against Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Lotte; Baggesgaard, Mads Anders

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand globalization, we need to consider what globalization is not. That is, in order to understand the mechanisms and elements that work toward globalization, we must, in a sense, read against globalization, highlighting the limitations of the concept and its inherent conflicts....... Only by employing this as a critical practice will we be analytically able to gain a dynamic understanding of the forces of globalization as they unfold today and as they have developed historically....

  10. Porphyry copper assessment of the Tethys region of western and southern Asia: Chapter V in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zürcher, Lukas; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Mars, John C.; Ludington, Stephen; Zientek, Michael L.; Dunlap, Pamela; Wallis, John C.; Drew, Lawrence J.; Sutphin, David M.; Berger, Byron R.; Herrington, Richard J.; Billa, Mario; Kuşcu, Ilkay; Moon, Charles J.; Richards, Jeremy P.; Zientek, Michael L.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Johnson, Kathleen M.

    2015-11-18

    A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources in porphyry copper deposits in the Tethys region of western and southern Asia was carried out as part of a global mineral resource assessment led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The purpose of the study was to delineate geographic areas as permissive tracts for the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits at a scale of 1:1,000,000 and to provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper likely to be contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in those tracts. The team did the assessment using the USGS three-part form of mineral resource assessment, which is based on (1) mineral deposit and grade-tonnage models constructed from known deposits as analogs for undiscovered deposits, (2) delineation of permissive tracts based on geoscientific information, and (3) estimation of numbers of undiscovered deposits.

  11. Assessing the environmental impacts of freshwater thermal pollution from global power generation in LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raptis, Catherine E; Boucher, Justin M; Pfister, Stephan

    2017-02-15

    Freshwater heat emissions from power plants with once-through cooling systems constitute one of many environmental pressures related to the thermoelectric power industry. The objective of this work was to obtain high resolution, operational characterization factors (CF) for the impact of heat emissions on ecosystem quality, and carry out a comprehensive, spatially, temporally and technologically differentiated damage-based environmental assessment of global freshwater thermal pollution. The aggregation of CFs on a watershed level results in 12.5% lower annual impacts globally and even smaller differences for the most crucial watersheds and months, so watershed level CFs are recommended when the exact emission site within the basin is unknown. Long-range impacts account for almost 90% of the total global impacts. The Great Lakes, several Mississippi subbasins, the Danube, and the Yangtze are among the most thermally impacted watersheds globally, receiving heat emissions from predominantly coal-fuelled and nuclear power plants. Globally, over 80% of the global annual impacts come from power plants constructed during or before the 1980s. While the impact-weighted mean age of the power plants in the Mississippi ranges from 38 to 51years, in Chinese watersheds including the Yangtze, the equivalent range is only 15 to 22years, reflecting a stark contrast in thermal pollution mitigation approaches. With relatively high shares of total capacity from power plants with once-through freshwater cooling, and tracing a large part of the Danube, 1kWh of net electricity mix is the most impactful in Hungary, Bulgaria and Serbia. Monthly CFs are provided on a grid cell level and on a watershed level for use in Life Cycle Assessment. The impacts per generating unit are also provided, as part of our effort to make available a global dataset of thermoelectric power plant emissions and impacts.

  12. A high-resolution assessment on global nitrogen flows in cropland

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Junguo; You, Liangzhi; Amini, Manouchehr; Obersteiner, Michael; Herrero, Mario; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.; Yang, Hong

    2010-01-01

    Crop production is the single largest cause of human alteration of the global nitrogen cycle. We present a comprehensive assessment of global nitrogen flows in cropland for the year 2000 with a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We calculated a total nitrogen input (IN) of 136.60 trillion grams (Tg) of N per year, of which almost half is contributed by mineral nitrogen fertilizers, and a total nitrogen output (OUT) of 148.14 Tg of N per year, of which 55% is uptake by harvested crops and cr...

  13. A high-resolution assessment on global nitrogen flows in cropland

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, J.; L. YOU; M. Amini; OBERSTEINER M.; Herrero, M.; Zehnder, A. J. B.; H. Yang

    2010-01-01

    Crop production is the single largest cause of human alteration of the global nitrogen cycle. We present a comprehensive assessment of global nitrogen flows in cropland for the year 2000 with a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We calculated a total nitrogen input (IN) of 136.60 trillion grams (Tg) of N per year, of which almost half is contributed by mineral nitrogen fertilizers, and a total nitrogen output (OUT) of 148.14 Tg of N per year, of which 55% is uptake by harvested crops and...

  14. Assessment of left ventricular global and regional longitudinal function in fetus using velocity vector imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui-xia TIAN

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective To measure the left ventricle global and segmental longitudinal strain, strain rate, and peak velocity in normal fetuses using velocity vector imaging (VVI for the assessment of the left ventricular function. Methods Detailed prenatal echocardiographic examinations were performed in 53 normal fetuses. Digital dynamic four-chamber views were collected and analyzed offline. In the four-chamber view, the interventricular septum and left ventricular lateral wall were divided into basal, middle and apical segments, in a total of six segments. Endocardial tracing began at the edge of the anterior mitral valve annulus, along endocardium of interventricular septum, extended to the ventricular apex, and returned to posterior mitral valve annulus along lateral ventricular wall edge. The global and segmental longitudinal strain, strain rate and peak velocity of the interventricular septum and left ventricular lateral wall were measured, the global function was calculated by an average of all segments. Segmental measurements were compared to global results. Results Fifty-three fetuses were enrolled in this study, and the VVI analysis was successful in 49, the success rate was 92.4%. The global left ventricular strain was –13.72%±3.99%, and the strain rate was –2.59±0.44/s and 2.43±0.38/s in systole and diastole respectively. No difference was found between segmental and global ventricular strain and strain rate. The left global ventricular peak velocity was 1.68±0.46cm/s and 1.51±0.41cm/s in systole and diastole respectively. The peak segmental velocity in systole and diastole decreased from the base of interventricular septum and lateral wall to ventricular apex. The global left ventricular peak velocity was significantly different from the peak velocity of apical and basal segments (P<0.05. Conclusions Measurement of global left ventricular longitudinal strain, strain rate and peak velocity is feasible in fetuses by using VVI

  15. Using historic aerial photography and paleohydrologic techniques to assess long-term ecological response to two Montana dam removals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, Denine; Blank, Matt; Ammondt, Selita; Patten, Duncan T

    2009-07-01

    The restorative potential of dam removal on ecosystem function depends on the reversibility of dam effects and its operations. While dam removal is an established engineering practice, the need for an understanding of the ecological response remains. We used paleoflood hydrology, hydrologic modeling, and aerial photo interpretation to investigate the long-term ecologic responses to dam failure and breach. We investigated downstream geomorphic and vegetation responses to a dam failure (Pattengail Dam in 1927) and a controlled dam breach, which used natural sediment removal (Mystic Lake Dam in 1985). Our data showed vegetation responses indicative of channel and floodplain evolution at Pattengail. The size of the flood following the Pattengail dam failure initiated a series of channel adjustments and reworked over 19ha of floodplain downstream of the dam. In Mystic, we observed few flood stage indicators and a slight response in floodplain vegetation. We made several findings. (1) Dam removal effects on channel evolution and floodplain development depend on reach types and their responsiveness to flow regime change. (2) Ecologic response to dam removal depends on the sizes and timing of high flow events during and following removal. (3) Paleohydrology can be used to assess historic floods (>20 years). We see the utility of assessing the ecological responsiveness of a system to previous fluvial events or changes in flow regime. Informed about the character of a system based on its history, dam removal scientists can use these tools to set realistic restoration goals for removing a dam.

  16. Quantitative analysis of pulse thermography data for degradation assessment of historical buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maio, Rosa; Piegari, Ester; Mancini, Cecilia; Chiapparino, Antonella

    2015-06-01

    In the last decades, infrared thermography has been successfully applied to various materials and structures for the assessment of their state of conservation and planning suitable restoration works. To this aim, mathematical models are required to characterize thermal anomaly sources, such as detachments, water infiltration and material decomposition processes. In this paper, an algorithm based on the conservative finite difference method is used to analyse pulse thermography data acquired on an ancient building in the Pompeii archaeological site (Naples, Italy). The numerical study is applied to both broad and narrow elongated thermal anomalies. In particular, from the comparison between simulated and experimental thermal decays, the plaster thickness was characterized in terms of thermal properties and areas of possible future detachments, and moisture infiltration depths were identified.

  17. Voiding Chain Cystourethography: Assessing A Historical Test's Role in Selection for Urethrolysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven P Petrou

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective To analyze the benefit of voiding chain cystourethrography (VCC [placing a radiographic opaque chain into the urethra and bladder and asking the patient to void under fluoroscopy] in the urodynamic evaluation of female bladder outlet obstruction (BOO. Materials and Methods Females with post anti-incontinence operation voiding dysfunction who underwent urodynamic evaluation augmented with VCC and later had urethrolysis were identified. Six diagnostic criteria for obstruction were applied to each patient: (1 VCC ( obstructed: chain was angulated and could not be voiding out (2 Video urodynamic study (VUDS (detrusor contraction combined with radiographic obstruction (3 maximum flow (Qmax ≤ 15 cc/sec, detrusor pressure (pDet@ Qmax ≥ 20 cm H20 (4 Qmax ≤ 11 cc/sec, pDet@ Qmax ≥ 25 cm H20 (5 Qmax ≤ 12 cc/sec, pDet@ Qmax ≥ 25 cm H20 (6 Blaivas-Groutz (B-G nomogram. Urethrolysis results were reviewed. Agreement in assessment of BOO criteria was assessed by estimating the proportion of pair-wise agreements along with an exact binomial 95% confidence interval (CI and by estimating kappa along with a 95% CI. Results Twenty-one patients were identified. Twenty of the 22 urethrolyses (91% were clinically successful. Diagnosis of BOO was most common for VCC (86% and then B-G Nomogram (67%. Agreement with the VCC was relatively poor for each of the five other methods (14%-62% with the video urodynamic study (VUDS being the best. Three patients with successful urethrolysis were diagnosed only by the VCC. All of kappa values regarding agreement with the VCC were low; the highest value of 0.15 was observed for VUDS. Conclusion VCC may augment selection criteria for urethrolysis.

  18. Biomass Assessment. Assessment of global biomass potentials and their links to food, water, biodiversity, energy demand and economy. Inventory and analysis of existing studies. Supporting document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dornburg, V.; Faaij, A.; Verweij, P. [Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands); Banse, M.; Van Diepen, K.; Van Keulen, H.; Langeveld, H.; Meeusen, M.; Van de Ven, G.; Wester, F. [Wageningen UR, Wageningen (Netherlands); Alkemade, R.; Ten Brink, B.; Van den Born, G.J.; Van Oorschot, M.; Ros, J.; Smout, F.; Van Vuuren, D.; Van den Wijngaart, R. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency NMP, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Aiking, H. [Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Londo, M.; Mozaffarian, H.; Smekens, K. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Lysen, E. (ed.); Van Egmond, S. (ed.) [Utrecht Centre for Energy research UCE, Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2008-01-15

    This supporting document contains the result from the inventory phase of the biomass assessment of global biomass potentials and their links to food, water, biodiversity, energy demand and economy. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of global biomass potential estimates, focusing on the various factors affecting these potentials, such as food supplies, water use, biodiversity, energy demands and agro-economics.

  19. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We includ

  20. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  1. Assessment of global DNA methylation in the first trimester fetal tissues exposed to maternal cigarette smoking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fa, Svetlana; Larsen, Trine Vilsbøll; Bilde, Katrine;

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: Maternal cigarette smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of negative health consequences for the exposed child. Epigenetic mechanisms constitute a likely link between the prenatal exposure to maternal cigarette smoking and the increased risk in later life for diverse pathologies....... Maternal smoking induces gene-specific DNA methylation alterations as well as global DNA hypermethylation in the term placentas and hypomethylation in the cord blood. Early pregnancy represents a developmental time where the fetal epigenome is remodeled and accordingly can be expected to be highly prone...... to exposures with an epigenetic impact. We have assessed the influence of maternal cigarette smoking during the first trimester for fetal global DNA methylation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed the human fetal intestines and livers as well as the placentas from the first trimester pregnancies. Global DNA...

  2. Assessment of trace metal contamination in a historical freshwater canal (Buckingham Canal), Chennai, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayaprakash, M; Nagarajan, R; Velmurugan, P M; Sathiyamoorthy, J; Krishnamurthy, R R; Urban, B

    2012-12-01

    The present study was done to assess the sources and the major processes controlling the trace metal distribution in sediments of Buckingham Canal. Based on the observed geochemical variations, the sediments are grouped as South Buckingham Canal and North Buckingham Canal sediments (SBC and NBC, respectively). SBC sediments show enrichment in Fe, Ti, Mn, Cr, V, Mo, and As concentrations, while NBC sediments show enrichment in Sn, Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, and Hg. The calculated Chemical Index of Alteration and Chemical Index of Weathering values for all the sediments are relatively higher than the North American Shale Composite and Upper Continental Crust but similar to Post-Archaean Average Shale, and suggest a source area with moderate weathering. Overall, SBC sediments are highly enriched in Mo, Zn, Cu, and Hg (geoaccumulation index (I(geo)) class 4-6), whereas NBC sediments are enriched in Sn, Cu, Zn, and Hg (I(geo) class 4-6). Cu, Ni, and Cr show higher than Effects-Range Median values and hence the biological adverse effect of these metals is 20%; Zn, which accounts for 50%, in the NBC sediments, has a more biological adverse effect than other metals found in these sediments. The calculated I(geo), Enrichment Factor, and Contamination Factor values indicate that Mo, Hg, Sn, Cu, and Zn are highly enriched in the Buckingham Canal sediments, suggesting the rapid urban and industrial development of Chennai Metropolitan City have negatively influenced on the surrounding aquatic ecosystem.

  3. Assessing the State of Contamination in a Historic Mining Town Using Sediment Chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez, Mélida; Wu, Shuo-Sheng; Rodriguez, Jameelah R; Jones, Ashton D; Lockwood, Benjamin E

    2016-05-01

    The United States town of Aurora, Missouri, USA, stockpiled lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) mining wastes from the early to mid-1900s in the form of chat piles. Clean-up actions were undertaken at intervals in subsequent years including land leveling and removal of chat. This study assessed the current state of contamination by identifying areas where metals are present at toxic levels. For this purpose, stream sediment samples (N = 100) were collected over a 9 × 12 km area in and around Aurora. Their content of cadmium (Cd), Pb, and Zn were measured, and concentration maps were generated using ArcGIS to categorize affected areas. Metal concentrations varied over a wide range of values with the overall highest values observed in the north-northeast part of Aurora where abundant chat piles had been present. Comparison between observed concentrations and sediment-quality guidelines put the contaminated areas mentioned are above-toxic levels for Cd, Pb and Zn. In contrast, levels in rural areas and the southern part of Aurora were at background levels, thus posing no threat to aquatic habitats. The fact that contamination is constrained to a relatively small area can be advantageously used to implement further remediation and, by doing so, to help protect the underlying karst aquifer.

  4. A vertically resolved, global, gap-free ozone database for assessing or constraining global climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. E. Bodeker

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available High vertical resolution ozone measurements from eight different satellite-based instruments have been merged with data from the global ozonesonde network to calculate monthly mean ozone values in 5° latitude zones. These ''Tier 0'' ozone number densities and ozone mixing ratios are provided on 70 altitude levels (1 to 70 km and on 70 pressure levels spaced ~ 1 km apart (878.4 hPa to 0.046 hPa. The Tier 0 data are sparse and do not cover the entire globe or altitude range. To provide a gap-free database, a least squares regression model is fitted to the Tier 0 data and then evaluated globally. The regression model fit coefficients are expanded in Legendre polynomials to account for latitudinal structure, and in Fourier series to account for seasonality. Regression model fit coefficient patterns, which are two dimensional fields indexed by latitude and month of the year, from the N-th vertical level serve as an initial guess for the fit at the N + 1-th vertical level. The initial guess field for the first fit level (20 km/58.2 hPa was derived by applying the regression model to total column ozone fields. Perturbations away from the initial guess are captured through the Legendre and Fourier expansions. By applying a single fit at each level, and using the approach of allowing the regression fits to change only slightly from one level to the next, the regression is less sensitive to measurement anomalies at individual stations or to individual satellite-based instruments. Particular attention is paid to ensuring that the low ozone abundances in the polar regions are captured. By summing different combinations of contributions from different regression model basis functions, four different ''Tier 1'' databases have been compiled for different intended uses. This database is suitable for assessing ozone fields from chemistry-climate model simulations or for providing the ozone boundary conditions for global climate model simulations that do not

  5. A vertically resolved, global, gap-free ozone database for assessing or constraining global climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. E. Bodeker

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available High vertical resolution ozone measurements from eight different satellite-based instruments have been merged with data from the global ozonesonde network to calculate monthly mean ozone values in 5° latitude zones. These "Tier 0" ozone number densities and ozone mixing ratios are provided on 70 altitude levels (1 to 70 km and on 70 pressure levels spaced ~1 km apart (878.4 hPa to 0.046 hPa. The Tier 0 data are sparse and do not cover the entire globe or altitude range. To provide a gap-free database, a least squares regression model is fitted to the Tier 0 data and then evaluated globally. The regression model fit coefficients are expanded in Legendre polynomials to account for latitudinal structure, and in Fourier series to account for seasonality. Regression model fit coefficient patterns, which are two dimensional fields indexed by latitude and month of the year, from the N-th vertical level serve as an initial guess for the fit at the N+1th vertical level. The initial guess field for the first fit level (20 km/58.2 hPa was derived by applying the regression model to total column ozone fields. Perturbations away from the initial guess are captured through the Legendre and Fourier expansions. By applying a single fit at each level, and using the approach of allowing the regression fits to change only slightly from one level to the next, the regression is less sensitive to measurement anomalies at individual stations or to individual satellite-based instruments. Particular attention is paid to ensuring that the low ozone abundances in the polar regions are captured. By summing different combinations of contributions from different regression model basis functions, four different "Tier 1" databases have been compiled for different intended uses. This database is suitable for assessing ozone fields from chemistry-climate model simulations or for providing the ozone boundary conditions for global climate model simulations that do

  6. Flood Risk Assessment Using Historical Information For The City of Turrialba, Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, C. J.; Badilla Coto, E.

    The city of Turrialba is located in the lower part of the Turrialba Basin, at the foot of the steep slopes of the Turrialba Volcano. This situation, combined with the heavy rainfalls common in the Caribbean zone of Costa Rica, makes this city to be frequently affected by flooding of the Colorado River, the Gamboa Stream and some other small watercourses. Also, an intense erosion of the riverbanks occurs along the margins of the Turrialba River. The uncontrolled urban expansion along these river courses has narrowed their channels and their discharge capacity has been drastically reduced. In consequence, the amount of rainfall that is necessary to cause a flood has been decreas- ing during the last decades and several serious floods have occurred, causing a lot of damage. To assess the flood hazard and risk in the study area, a different degree of haz- ard was assigned to each geomorphological unit, based on its slope, drainage pattern, grain size and permeability, and considering the information gathered in the field in relation to the distribution and characteristics of bottlenecks and critical points. From that we obtained that Turrialba City is located on areas with high or medium flood hazard. Through a detailed field survey, a floodwater depth map of the 1996 flood event and an attribute map of the elements at risk (concentrating on buildings) of the study area were made. From this 1996 scenario, other hypothetic events were mod- eled. Vulnerability functions, which relate floodwater depth and damage percentage for all types of elements at risk, were developed. Vulnerability maps for the different events were obtained applying these functions to the different floodwater depth maps. Through the combination of this vulnerability maps with information on hypothetic costs of the elements at risk, damage and posterior risk zonation maps were obtained.

  7. A Global Refiability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JI Chun-yan; LI Shan-shan; CHEN Ming-lu

    2009-01-01

    Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms.For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms,a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper.The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore plaffoms,it is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation.And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables.A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too.Furthermore,the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method.On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode,the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper.Finally the instantaueous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.

  8. Dead shrimp blues: a global assessment of extinction risk in freshwater shrimps (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea).

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Grave, Sammy; Smith, Kevin G; Adeler, Nils A; Allen, Dave J; Alvarez, Fernando; Anker, Arthur; Cai, Yixiong; Carrizo, Savrina F; Klotz, Werner; Mantelatto, Fernando L; Page, Timothy J; Shy, Jhy-Yun; Villalobos, José Luis; Wowor, Daisy

    2015-01-01

    We present the first global assessment of extinction risk for a major group of freshwater invertebrates, caridean shrimps. The risk of extinction for all 763 species was assessed using the IUCN Red List criteria that include geographic ranges, habitats, ecology and past and present threats. The Indo-Malayan region holds over half of global species diversity, with a peak in Indo-China and southern China. Shrimps primarily inhabit flowing water; however, a significant subterranean component is present, which is more threatened than the surface fauna. Two species are extinct with a further 10 possibly extinct, and almost one third of species are either threatened or Near Threatened (NT). Threats to freshwater shrimps include agricultural and urban pollution impact over two-thirds of threatened and NT species. Invasive species and climate change have the greatest overall impact of all threats (based on combined timing, scope and severity of threats).

  9. Dead shrimp blues: a global assessment of extinction risk in freshwater shrimps (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sammy De Grave

    Full Text Available We present the first global assessment of extinction risk for a major group of freshwater invertebrates, caridean shrimps. The risk of extinction for all 763 species was assessed using the IUCN Red List criteria that include geographic ranges, habitats, ecology and past and present threats. The Indo-Malayan region holds over half of global species diversity, with a peak in Indo-China and southern China. Shrimps primarily inhabit flowing water; however, a significant subterranean component is present, which is more threatened than the surface fauna. Two species are extinct with a further 10 possibly extinct, and almost one third of species are either threatened or Near Threatened (NT. Threats to freshwater shrimps include agricultural and urban pollution impact over two-thirds of threatened and NT species. Invasive species and climate change have the greatest overall impact of all threats (based on combined timing, scope and severity of threats.

  10. Global and 3D Spatial Assessment of Neuroinflammation in Rodent Models of Multiple Sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gupta, Shashank; Utoft, Regine Egeholm; Hasseldam, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a progressive autoimmune inflammatory and demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS). T cells play a key role in the progression of neuroinflammation in MS and also in the experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) animal models for the disease....... A technology for quantitative and 3 dimensional (3D) spatial assessment of inflammation in this and other CNS inflammatory conditions is much needed. Here we present a procedure for 3D spatial assessment and global quantification of the development of neuroinflammation based on Optical Projection Tomography...... (OPT). Applying this approach to the analysis of rodent models of MS, we provide global quantitative data of the major inflammatory component as a function of the clinical course. Our data demonstrates a strong correlation between the development and progression of neuroinflammation and clinical...

  11. Global assessment of seasonal potential distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Szyniszewska

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly is one of the world's most economically damaging pests. It displays highly seasonal population dynamics, and the environmental conditions suitable for its abundance are not constant throughout the year in most places. An extensive literature search was performed to obtain the most comprehensive data on the historical and contemporary spatio-temporal occurrence of the pest globally. The database constructed contained 2328 unique geo-located entries on Medfly detection sites from 43 countries and nearly 500 unique localities, as well as information on hosts, life stages and capture method. Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online. Records from 1980 until present were used for medfly environmental niche modeling. Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt and a set of seasonally varying environmental covariates were used to predict the fundamental niche of the Medfly on a global scale. Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May-August and September-December. Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species.

  12. Global assessment of seasonal potential distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szyniszewska, Anna M; Tatem, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) is one of the world's most economically damaging pests. It displays highly seasonal population dynamics, and the environmental conditions suitable for its abundance are not constant throughout the year in most places. An extensive literature search was performed to obtain the most comprehensive data on the historical and contemporary spatio-temporal occurrence of the pest globally. The database constructed contained 2328 unique geo-located entries on Medfly detection sites from 43 countries and nearly 500 unique localities, as well as information on hosts, life stages and capture method. Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online. Records from 1980 until present were used for medfly environmental niche modeling. Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt) and a set of seasonally varying environmental covariates were used to predict the fundamental niche of the Medfly on a global scale. Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May-August and September-December. Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species.

  13. The Dynamics of Trade Affinities : An Assessment of the Globalization of the European Continent

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    This thesis is an assessment of the dynamics of trade affinities and how they have influenced trade flows in the European continent. The focus is how trade affinities have altered over a time span of four time periods stretching from the 1970s up to today and how these alterations have influenced globalization. A total of 41 countries belonging to the European continent have been selected. Furthermore four variables were selected to represent trade affinities; distance, border, colony, and la...

  14. Considering time in LCA: dynamic LCA and its application to global warming impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levasseur, Annie; Lesage, Pascal; Margni, Manuele; Deschênes, Louise; Samson, Réjean

    2010-04-15

    The lack of temporal information is an important limitation of life cycle assessment (LCA). A dynamic LCA approach is proposed to improve the accuracy of LCA by addressing the inconsistency of temporal assessment. This approach consists of first computing a dynamic life cycle inventory (LCI), considering the temporal profile of emissions. Then, time-dependent characterization factors are calculated to assess the dynamic LCI in real-time impact scores for any given time horizon. Although generally applicable to any impact category, this approach is developed here for global warming, based on the radiative forcing concept. This case study demonstrates that the use of global warming potentials for a given time horizon to characterize greenhouse gas emissions leads to an inconsistency between the time frame chosen for the analysis and the time period covered by the LCA results. Dynamic LCA is applied to the US EPA LCA on renewable fuels, which compares the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of different biofuels with fossil fuels including land-use change emissions. The comparison of the results obtained with both traditional and dynamic LCA approaches shows that the difference can be important enough to change the conclusions on whether or not a biofuel meets some given global warming reduction targets.

  15. Assessment and self-assessment of the pharmacists' competencies using the global competency framework (GbCF in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojkov Svetlana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Pharmacists' competence represents a dynamic framework of knowledge, skills and abilities to carry out tasks, and it reflects on improving the quality of life and on patients’ health. One of the documents for the Evaluation and Competency Development of Pharmacists is the Global Competency Framework (GbCF. The aim of this study was to implement the GBCF document into Serbian pharmacies, to perform assessment and self assessment of the competencies. Methods. The assessment and self-assessment of pharmacists’ competencies were performed during the period 2012−13 year in eight community pharmacy chains, in seven cities in Serbia. For assessment and self-assessment of pharmacists competencies the GbCF model was applied, which was adjusted to pharmaceutical practice and legislation in Serbia. External assessment was conducted by teams of pharmacists using the structured observation of the work of pharmacists during regular working hours. Evaluated pharmacists filled out the questionnaire about demographic indicators about the pharmacist and the pharmacy where they work. Results. A total of 123 pharmacists were evaluated. Pharmacists’ Professional Competency Cluster (KK1 had the lowest score (average value 2.98, while the cluster Management and Organizational Competency (KK2 had the highest score (average value 3.15. The competence Recognition of the Diagnosis and Patient Counseling (K8, which belonged to the cluster KK1, had the lowest score (average value for assessment and self-assessment were 2.09, and 2.34, respectively among the all evaluated competencies. Conclusion. GbCF might be considered as an instrument for the competencies' evaluation/selfevaluation and their improvement, accordingly.

  16. Assessments of global drivers of vaccine hesitancy in 2014—Looking beyond safety concerns

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Cola, Monica; MacDonald, Noni E.; Dumolard, Laure; Duclos, Philippe

    2017-01-01

    Vaccine hesitancy has become the focus of growing attention and concern globally despite overwhelming evidence of the value of vaccines in preventing disease and saving the lives of millions of individuals every year. Measuring vaccine hesitancy and its determinants worldwide is important in order to understand the scope of the problem and for the development of evidence-based targeted strategies to reduce hesitancy. Two indicators to assess vaccine hesitancy were developed to capture its nature and scope at the national and subnational level to collect data in 2014: 1) The top 3 reasons for not accepting vaccines according to the national schedule in the past year and whether the response was opinion- or assessment-based and 2) Whether an assessment (or measurement) of the level of confidence in vaccination had taken place at national or subnational level in the previous 5 years. The most frequently cited reasons for vaccine hesitancy globally related to (1) the risk-benefit of vaccines, (2) knowledge and awareness issues, (3) religious, cultural, gender or socio-economic factors. Major issues were fear of side effects, distrust in vaccination and lack of information on immunization or immunization services. The analysis revealed that 29% of all countries had done an assessment of the level of confidence in their country, suggesting that vaccine confidence was an issue of importance. Monitoring vaccine hesitancy is critical because of its influence on the success of immunization programs. To our knowledge, the proposed indicators provide the first global snapshot of reasons driving vaccine hesitancy and depicting its widespread nature, as well as the extent of assessments conducted by countries. PMID:28249006

  17. Are Local Food Chains More Sustainable than Global Food Chains? Considerations for Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianluca Brunori

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the main findings of the GLAMUR project which starts with an apparently simple question: is “local” more sustainable than “global”? Sustainability assessment is framed within a post-normal science perspective, advocating the integration of public deliberation and scientific research. The assessment spans 39 local, intermediate and global supply chain case studies across different commodities and countries. Assessment criteria cover environmental, economic, social, health and ethical sustainability dimensions. A closer view of the food system demonstrates a highly dynamic local–global continuum where actors, while adapting to a changing environment, establish multiple relations and animate several chain configurations. The evidence suggests caution when comparing “local” and “global” chains, especially when using the outcomes of the comparison in decision-making. Supply chains are analytical constructs that necessarily—and arbitrarily—are confined by system boundaries, isolating a set of elements from an interconnected whole. Even consolidated approaches, such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA, assess only a part of sustainability attributes, and the interpretation may be controversial. Many sustainability attributes are not yet measurable and “hard” methodologies need to be complemented by “soft” methodologies which are at least able to identify critical issues and trade-offs. Aware of these limitations, our research shows that comparing local and global chains, with the necessary caution, can help overcome a priori positions that so far have characterized the debate between “localists” and “globalists”. At firm level, comparison between “local” and “global” chains could be useful to identify best practices, benchmarks, critical points, and errors to avoid. As sustainability is not a status to achieve, but a never-ending process, comparison and deliberation can be the basis of a

  18. A new global dataset with extreme sea levels and its application for assessing flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Extreme sea levels, caused by storm surges and high tides, can have devastating societal impacts. The global coastal population is faced with an increasing trend in flood risk, induced by socio-economic development and climate change. Without action, the increasing trends in flood hazard and exposure will be associated with catastrophic flood losses in the future. The adequate allocation of global investments in adaptation requires an accurate understanding of the current and future coastal flood risk on a global-scale. Here we present the first global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels (GTSR dataset) based on dynamical modelling. GTSR covers the entire world's coastline and consists of time series of tides and surges and estimates of extreme values for various return periods. The dataset is based on two different hydrodynamic models: FES2012 for modelling tides, and GSTM for modelling storm surges. GSTM is forced by meteorological fields from ERA-Interim to simulate storm surges for the period 1979-2014. Validation showed that there is very good agreement between modelled and observed sea levels. Only in regions prone to tropical cyclones, extreme sea levels are severely underestimated due to the limited resolution of the meteorological forcing. This will be resolved for future updates of GTSR. As a first application of GSTR, we estimate that 99 million people are exposed to a 1 in 100 year flood. This is almost 40% lower than estimates based the DIVA dataset, another global dataset of extreme sea level. We foresee other applications in assessing impacts of climate change and risk management, such as assessing changes in storminess, estimating the impacts of sea level, and providing warning levels to operational models.

  19. Porphyry copper assessment of the Tibetan Plateau, China: Chapter F in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludington, Steve; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Robinson,, Gilpin R.; Mars, John L.; Miller, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with the China Geological Survey to conduct a mineral-resource assessment of resources in porphyry copper deposits on the Tibetan Plateau in western China. This area hosts several very large porphyry deposits, exemplified by the Yulong and Qulong deposits, each containing at least 7,000,000 metric tons (t) of copper. However, large parts of the area are underexplored and are likely to contain undiscovered porphyry copper deposits.

  20. An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hettinger, Dylan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.

  1. Concept Mapping to Assess Learning and Understanding of Complexity in Courses on Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebich-Hespanha, S.; Gautier, C.

    2010-12-01

    The complex nature of climate change science poses special challenges for educators wishing to broaden and deepen student understanding of the climate system and its sensitivity to and impacts upon human activity. Learners have prior knowledge that may limit their perception and processing of the multiple relationships between processes (e.g., feedbacks) that arise in global change science, and these existing mental models serve as the scaffold for all future learning. Because adoption of complex scientific concepts is not likely if instruction includes presentation of information or concepts that are not compatible with the learners’ prior knowledge, providing effective instruction on this complex topic requires learning opportunities that are anchored upon an evaluation of the limitations and inaccuracies of the learners’ existing understandings of the climate system. The formative evaluation that serves as the basis for planning such instruction can also be useful as a baseline against which to evaluate subsequent learning. We will present concept-mapping activities that we have used to assess students’ knowledge and understanding about global climate change in courses that utilized multiple assessment methods including presentations, writings, discussions, and concept maps. The courses in which these activities were completed use a variety of instructional approaches (including standard lectures and lab assignments and a mock summit) to help students understand the inherently interdisciplinary topic of global climate change, its interwoven human and natural causes, and the connections it has with society through a complex range of political, social, technological and economic factors. Two instances of concept map assessment will be presented: one focused on evaluating student understanding of the major components of the climate system and their interconnections, and the other focused on student understanding of the connections between climate change and

  2. Sandstone copper assessment of the Chu-Sarysu Basin, Central Kazakhstan: Chapter E in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Box, Stephen E.; Syusyura, Boris; Hayes, Timothy S.; Taylor, Cliff D.; Zientek, Michael L.; Hitzman, Murray W.; Seltmann, Reimar; Chechetkin, Vladimir; Dolgopolova, Alla; Cossette, Pamela M.; Wallis, John C.

    2012-01-01

    Mineral resource assessments represent a synthesis of available information to estimate the location, quality, and quantity of undiscovered mineral resources in the upper part of the Earth’s crust. This report presents a probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered sandstone copper deposits within the late Paleozoic Chu-Sarysu Basin in central Kazakhstan by the U.S. Geological Survey as a contribution to a global assessment of mineral resources. The purposes of this study are to: (1) provide a database of known sandstone copper deposits and significant prospects in this area, (2) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered sandstone copper deposits within 2 km of the surface at a scale of 1:1,000,000, (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within these permissive tracts at several levels of confidence, and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), silver (Ag), and mineralized rock that could be contained in undiscovered deposits within each tract. The assessment uses the three-part form of mineral resource assessment based on mineral deposit models (Singer, 1993; Singer and Menzie, 2010).

  3. Assessment of undiscovered sandstone copper deposits of the Kodar-Udokan area, Russia: Chapter M in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zientek, Michael L.; Chechetkin, Vladimir S.; Parks, Heather L.; Box, Stephen E.; Briggs, Deborah A.; Cossette, Pamela M.; Dolgopolova, Alla; Hayes, Timothy S.; Seltmann, Reimar; Syusyura, Boris; Taylor, Cliff D.; Wintzer, Niki E.

    2014-01-01

    Mineral resource assessments integrate and synthesize available information as a basis for estimating the location, quality, and quantity of undiscovered mineral resources. This probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered sandstone copper deposits within Paleoproterozoic metasedimentary rocks of the Kodar-Udokan area in Russia is a contribution to a global assessment led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The purposes of this study are to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) to indicate where undiscovered sandstone-hosted copper deposits may occur within 2 km of the surface, (2) provide a database of known sandstone copper deposits and significant prospects, (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within these permissive tracts at several levels of confidence, and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu) and mineralized rock that could be contained in undiscovered deposits within each tract. The workshop for the assessment, held in October 2009, used a three-part form of mineral resource assessment as described by Singer (1993) and Singer and Menzie (2010).

  4. Evaluation of global left ventricular function assessment by dual-source computed tomography compared with MRI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vleuten, Pieter A. van der; Tio, Rene A.; Zijlstra, Felix [University Medical Centre Groningen, Thoraxcenter, Department of Cardiology, P.O. Box 30001, Groningen (Netherlands); Jonge, Gonda J. de; Lubbers, Daniel D.; Willems, Tineke P.; Oudkerk, Matthijs [University Medical Centre Groningen, Department of Radiology, Groningen (Netherlands)

    2009-02-15

    Left ventricular (LV) function assessment by dual-source computed tomography (DSCT) was compared with the reference standard method using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Accurate assessment of LV function is essential for the prediction of prognosis in cardiac disease. Thirty-four patients undergoing DSCT examination of the heart for various clinical indications underwent MRI after DSCT. Short-axis cine images were reconstructed from the DSCT datasets and were analyzed using a dedicated post-processing software-tool to generate global left ventricular function parameters. Five DSCT datasets were considered to be of insufficient image quality. DSCT showed a small overestimation of end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes of 11.0 ml and 3.5 ml, nrespectively. Myocardial mass assessed by DSCT showed an average underestimation of 0.2 g. DSCT showed a small overestimation of LV ejection fraction (LVEF) of 0.4%-point with a Bland-Altman interval of [-8.67 (0.40) 9.48]. Global LV functional parameters calculated from DSCT datasets acquired in daily clinical practice correlated well with MRI and may be considered interchangeable. However, visual assessment of the image quality of the short-axis cine slices should be performed to detect any artifacts in the DSCT data which could influence accuracy. (orig.)

  5. Evaluating the Contribution of Soil Carbon to Global Climate Change Mitigation in an Integrated Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Clarke, L. E.

    2006-12-01

    Assessing the contribution of terrestrial carbon sequestration to national and international climate change mitigation requires integration across scientific and disciplinary boundaries. In a study for the US Climate Change Technology Program, site based measurements and geographic data were used to develop a three- pool, first-order kinetic model of global agricultural soil carbon (C) stock changes over 14 continental scale regions. This model was then used together with land use scenarios from the MiniCAM integrated assessment model in a global analysis of climate change mitigation options. MiniCAM evaluated mitigation strategies within a set of policy environments aimed at achieving atmospheric CO2 stabilization by 2100 under a suite of technology and development scenarios. Adoption of terrestrial sequestration practices is based on competition for land and economic markets for carbon. In the reference case with no climate policy, conversion of agricultural land from conventional cultivation to no tillage over the next century in the United States results in C sequestration of 7.6 to 59.8 Tg C yr-1, which doubles to 19.0 to 143.4 Tg C yr-1 under the most aggressive climate policy. Globally, with no carbon policy, agricultural C sequestration rates range from 75.2 to 18.2 Tg C yr-1 over the century, with the highest rates occurring in the first fifty years. Under the most aggressive global climate change policy, sequestration in agricultural soils reaches up to 190 Tg C yr-1 in the first 15 years. The contribution of agricultural soil C sequestration is a small fraction of the total global carbon offsets necessary to reach the stabilization targets (9 to 20 Gt C yr-1) by the end of the century. This integrated assessment provides decision makers with science-based estimates of the potential magnitude of terrestrial C sequestration relative to other greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in all sectors of the global economy. It also provides insight into the

  6. Avaliação nutricional subjetiva global em pacientes cardiopatas Subjective global assessment of nutritional status in cardiac patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurea Kaoru Yamauti

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Analisar a Avaliação Nutricional Subjetiva Global (ANSG para o diagnóstico de desnutrição em pacientes cardiopatas. MÉTODOS: Em 106 pacientes hospitalizados (53 com insuficiência cardíaca, aplicou-se o questionário de ANSG com histórico nutricional (peso, dieta, sintomas gastrointestinais, capacidade funcional física e diagnóstico e exame físico. Depois aferiram-se medidas antropométricas (peso, circunferência do braço, prega cutânea triciptal e circunferência muscular do braço. Para a avaliação objetiva dos pacientes com insuficiência cardíaca consideraram-se albumina sérica, contagem de linfócitos e antropometria. A curva ROC analisou sensibilidade, especificidade e acurácia da ANSG em relação à avaliação objetiva. RESULTADOS: A idade dos pacientes era de 57,7 ± 15,7 anos, e a maioria era de homens (67,9%. A curva ROC indicou o escore 16 como ponto de corte da ANSG com maior sensibilidade (62,2% e especificidade (55,7%. A área sob a curva foi de 0,601 (IC 95%: 0,487 - 0,715. A prevalência de desnutrição foi de 51,9% pela ANSG e 42,5% pela avaliação antropométrica, com acurácia de 65,3% nos homens e 44,1% nas mulheres. Nos pacientes com insuficiência cardíaca, a prevalência de desnutrição foi de 60,4% pela ANSG e 32,1% pela avaliação objetiva, com acurácia de 67,6% nos homens e 31,3% nas mulheres. CONCLUSÃO: A ANSG identificou maior número de desnutridos do que a avaliação objetiva. O desempenho da ANSG na identificação de desnutrição foi maior nos homens. A ANSG detectou pacientes cardiopatas com risco nutricional.OBJECTIVE: To analyze the performance of Subjective Global Assessment of Nutritional Status (SGA in diagnosing malnutrition in patients with heart disease. METHODS: One hundred and six hospitalized patients (53 with heart failure completed an SGA questionnaire on their nutritional history (changes in body weight, dietary intake, gastrointestinal symptoms, functional

  7. A global emission inventory of carbonaceous aerosol from historic records of fossil fuel and biofuel consumption for the period 1860─1997

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Liousse

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Country by country emission inventories for carbonaceous aerosol for the period 1860 to 1997 have been constructed on the basis of historic fuel production, use and trade data sets published by the United Nation's Statistical Division UNSTAT (1997, Etemad et al. (1991 and Mitchell (1992, 1993, 1995. The inventories use emission factors variable over time, which have been determined according to changes in technological development. The results indicate that the industrialisation period since 1860 was accompanied by a steady increase in black carbon (BC and primary organic carbon (POC emissions up to 1910. The calculations show a moderate decrease of carbonaceous aerosol emissions between 1920 and 1930, followed by an increase up to 1990, the year when emissions began to decrease again. Changes in BC and POC emissions prior to the year 1950 are essentially driven by the USA, Germany and the UK. The USSR, China and India become substantial contributors to carbonaceous aerosol emissions after 1950. Emission maps have been generated with a 1°×1° resolution based on the relative population density in each country. They will provide a helpful tool for assessing the effect of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on observed climate changes of the past.

  8. A global emission inventory of carbonaceous aerosol from historic records of fossil fuel and biofuel consumption for the period 1860-1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junker, C.; Liousse, C.

    2008-03-01

    Country by country emission inventories for carbonaceous aerosol for the period 1860 to 1997 have been constructed on the basis of historic fuel production, use and trade data sets published by the United Nation's Statistical Division UNSTAT (1997), Etemad et al. (1991) and Mitchell (1992, 1993, 1995). The inventories use emission factors variable over time, which have been determined according to changes in technological development. The results indicate that the industrialisation period since 1860 was accompanied by a steady increase in black carbon (BC) and primary organic carbon (POC) emissions up to 1910. The calculations show a moderate decrease of carbonaceous aerosol emissions between 1920 and 1930, followed by an increase up to 1990, the year when emissions began to decrease again. Changes in BC and POC emissions prior to the year 1950 are essentially driven by the USA, Germany and the UK. The USSR, China and India become substantial contributors to carbonaceous aerosol emissions after 1950. Emission maps have been generated with a 1°×1° resolution based on the relative population density in each country. They will provide a helpful tool for assessing the effect of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on observed climate changes of the past.

  9. A global emission inventory of carbonaceous aerosol from historic records of fossil fuel and biofuel consumption for the period 1860–1997

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Liousse

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Country by country emission inventories for carbonaceous aerosol for the period 1860 to 1997 have been constructed on the basis of historic fuel production, use and trade data sets published by the United Nation's Statistical Division UNSTAT (1997, Etemad et al. (1991 and Mitchell (1992, 1993, 1995. The inventories use emission factors variable over time, which have been determined according to changes in technological development. The results indicate that the industrialisation period since 1860 was accompanied by a steady increase in black carbon (BC and organic carbon (OC emissions up to 1910. The calculations show a moderate decrease of carbonaceous aerosol emissions between 1920 and 1930, followed by an increase up to 1990, the year when emissions began to decrease again. Changes in BC and OC emissions prior to the year 1950 are essentially driven by the USA, Germany and the UK. The USSR, China and India become substantial contributors to carbonaceous aerosol emissions after 1950. Emission maps have been generated with a 1°×1° resolution based on the relative population density in each country. They will provide a helpful tool for assessing the effect of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on observed climate changes of the past.

  10. GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hoogeveen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by FAO to assess water use in irrigated agriculture; the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high resolution datasets that are consistent at global level and calibrated against values for Internal Renewable Water Resources, as published in AQUASTAT, FAO's global information system on water and agriculture. Validation of the model is done against mean annual river basin outflows. The water balance is calculated in two steps: first a "vertical" water balance is calculated that includes evaporation from in situ rainfall ("green" water and incremental evaporation from irrigated crops. In a second stage, a "horizontal" water balance is calculated to determine discharges from river (sub-basins, taking into account incremental evaporation from irrigation, open water and wetlands ("blue" water. The paper describes methodology, input and output data, calibration and validation of the model. The model results are finally compared with other global water balance models.

  11. Marine Geoid Undulation Assessment Over South China Sea Using Global Geopotential Models and Airborne Gravity Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazid, N. M.; Din, A. H. M.; Omar, K. M.; Som, Z. A. M.; Omar, A. H.; Yahaya, N. A. Z.; Tugi, A.

    2016-09-01

    Global geopotential models (GGMs) are vital in computing global geoid undulations heights. Based on the ellipsoidal height by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, the accurate orthometric height can be calculated by adding precise and accurate geoid undulations model information. However, GGMs also provide data from the satellite gravity missions such as GRACE, GOCE and CHAMP. Thus, this will assist to enhance the global geoid undulations data. A statistical assessment has been made between geoid undulations derived from 4 GGMs and the airborne gravity data provided by Department of Survey and Mapping Malaysia (DSMM). The goal of this study is the selection of the best possible GGM that best matches statistically with the geoid undulations of airborne gravity data under the Marine Geodetic Infrastructures in Malaysian Waters (MAGIC) Project over marine areas in Sabah. The correlation coefficients and the RMS value for the geoid undulations of GGM and airborne gravity data were computed. The correlation coefficients between EGM 2008 and airborne gravity data is 1 while RMS value is 0.1499.In this study, the RMS value of EGM 2008 is the lowest among the others. Regarding to the statistical analysis, it clearly represents that EGM 2008 is the best fit for marine geoid undulations throughout South China Sea.

  12. Assessing Compatibility of Direct Detection Data: Halo-Independent Global Likelihood Analyses

    CERN Document Server

    Gelmini, Graciela B; Witte, Samuel J

    2016-01-01

    We present two different halo-independent methods utilizing a global maximum likelihood that can assess the compatibility of dark matter direct detection data given a particular dark matter model. The global likelihood we use is comprised of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Poisson or Gaussian likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function and construct a two sided pointwise confidence band, which can then be compared with those derived from the extended likelihood alone to assess the joint compatibility of the data. In the second method we define a "constrained parameter goodness-of-fit" test statistic, whose $p$-value we then use to define a "plausibility region" (e.g. where $p \\geq 10\\%$). For any halo function not entirely contained within the plausibility region, the level of compatibility of the data is very low (e.g. $p < 10 \\%$). As an example we apply these methods to CDMS-II-Si and SuperCDMS data, assuming dark matter particles with elastic s...

  13. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  14. Alternative "global warming" metrics in life cycle assessment: a case study with existing transportation data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Glen P; Aamaas, Borgar; T Lund, Marianne; Solli, Christian; Fuglestvedt, Jan S

    2011-10-15

    The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) impact category "global warming" compares emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) using Global Warming Potential (GWP) with a 100-year time-horizon as specified in the Kyoto Protocol. Two weaknesses of this approach are (1) the exclusion of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and biophysical factors despite their established importance, and (2) the use of a particular emission metric (GWP) with a choice of specific time-horizons (20, 100, and 500 years). The GWP and the three time-horizons were based on an illustrative example with value judgments and vague interpretations. Here we illustrate, using LCA data of the transportation sector, the importance of SLCFs relative to LLGHGs, different emission metrics, and different treatments of time. We find that both the inclusion of SLCFs and the choice of emission metric can alter results and thereby change mitigation priorities. The explicit inclusion of time, both for emissions and impacts, can remove value-laden assumptions and provide additional information for impact assessments. We believe that our results show that a debate is needed in the LCA community on the impact category "global warming" covering which emissions to include, the emission metric(s) to use, and the treatment of time.

  15. How current assessments of Sustainability Performance by Best Practice in the UN Global Compact challenge legitimacy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Thomas

    - in review). And since the UNGC in 2010 introduced the differentiation framework to their reporting standard, a significant number of Scandinavian corporations has chosen to report on an Advanced Level and self-assess their Sustainability Performance. Hence, in times where international opinion makers like...... Performance? And how the current assessment of Sustainability Performance by Best Practice in the UN Global Compact challenge the legitimacy of both the corporation, the UNGC and governments attempting to facilitate sustainability and CSR engagement? Best Practice is a concept frequently used by authorities...... element in assessing Sustainability Performance with the criteria for Advanced Level reporting in the UNGC differentiation framework. Though, previous empirical research by Kjaergaard (submitted, in review) has demonstrated that although the introduction of this framework generally should be acknowledged...

  16. China's "energy revolution": measuring the status quo, modelling regional dynamics and assessing global impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mischke, Peggy

    As the world's largest economy in transition, China plays a growing role in global energy markets, clean technology deployment and climate change negotiations. The Chinese president Xi Jinping called in June 2014 for an “energy revolution” of the country’s “energy production and consumption habits...... energy balance; (ii) a review and benchmarking exercise of 18 Chinese energy modelling tools followed by a discussion of the Chinese perspective towards a low-carbon economy; (iii) an energy system wide mapping of regional energy flows in China to evaluate main disparities; (iv) a coupling of two complex...... top-down and bottom-up global energy planning tools to model future regional dynamics of China's energy sector; and (v) an assessment of electricity generation costs of the first operational concentrated solar power technologies in China. The results of this thesis are relevant for a broad scientific...

  17. A City and National Metric measuring Isolation from the Global Market for Food Security Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Silver, Kirk Coleman; Rajagopalan, Krishnan

    2013-01-01

    The World Bank has invested in infrastructure in developing countries for decades. This investment aims to reduce the isolation of markets, reducing both seasonality and variability in food availability and food prices. Here we combine city market price data, global distance to port, and country infrastructure data to create a new Isolation Index for countries and cities around the world. Our index quantifies the isolation of a city from the global market. We demonstrate that an index built at the country level can be applied at a sub-national level to quantify city isolation. In doing so, we offer policy makers with an alternative metric to assess food insecurity. We compare our isolation index with other indices and economic data found in the literature.We show that our Index measures economic isolation regardless of economic stability using correlation and analysis

  18. Comprehensive assessment of heavy metal pollution in topsoil of historical urban park on an example of the Planty Park in Krakow (Poland).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gąsiorek, Michał; Kowalska, Joanna; Mazurek, Ryszard; Pająk, Marek

    2017-03-27

    The Historic Centre of Krakow is on the UNESCO World Heritage List and includes the Main Market Square, which is surrounded by the historical Planty Park. Soils in the Planty Park are an example of a green area in an urban environment that is particularly exposed to heavy metal-rich pollution. To assess the relative content of heavy metals and evaluate the sources of the contamination, pollution indices were used: Enrichment Factor (EF), Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo), Nemerow Pollution Index (PINemerow), Potential Ecological Risk (RI), and Contamination Security Index (CSI). Pollution indices were calculated on the base of both reference and local geochemical backgrounds. Sources of heavy metals in soils of Planty Park are related to its historic role as a metallurgy centre, as well as the more recent urban and industrial development of Krakow centre and neighbouring areas. It is concluded that increased accumulation of heavy metals is an effect of growing numbers of emission sources. The variation of each element may not unambiguously reflect the natural or anthropogenic effect on the Planty Park soil cover. In general, the present and historical emission of pollutants and heavy metal-rich contamination has led to a mixed origin of Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Moreover, it can be assumed that the content of Cr and Ni is derived from natural sources. Furthermore, a comparison of the quality of the Planty Park topsoil with the heavy metal content assessment in other urban parks in the world has been presented.

  19. Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, T. A.; Peel, M. C.; Karoly, D. J.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to identify better performing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) global climate models (GCMs) that reproduce grid-scale climatological statistics of observed precipitation and temperature for input to hydrologic simulation over global land regions. Current assessments are aimed mainly at examining the performance of GCMs from a climatology perspective and not from a hydrology standpoint. The performance of each GCM in reproducing the precipitation and temperature statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) 3.10 gridded data set and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM-based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen-Geiger climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index and root mean square error (RMSE) between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following better performing GCMs from a hydrologic perspective: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research), MIROCm (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for Global Change), MIUB (Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Meteorological Research Institute of KMA, and Model and Data group), MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology) and MRI (Japan Meteorological Research Institute). The future response of these GCMs was found to be representative of the 44 GCM ensemble members which confirms that the selected GCMs are reasonably

  20. Historical Evolution of Global and Regional Surface Air Temperature Simulated by FGOALS-s2 and FGOALS-g2:How Reliable Are the Model Results?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tianjun; SONG Fengfei; CHEN Xiaolong

    2013-01-01

    In order to assess the performance of two versions of the IAP/LASG Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model,simulated changes in surface air temperature (SAT),from natural and anthropogenic forcings,were compared to observations for the period 1850-2005 at global,hemispheric,continental and regional scales.The global and hemispheric averages of SAT and their land and ocean components during 1850 2005 were well reproduced by FGOALS-g2,as evidenced by significant correlation coefficients and small RMSEs.The significant positive correlations were firstly determined by the warming trends,and secondly by interdecadal fluctuations.The abilities of the models to reproduce interdecadal SAT variations were demonstrated by both wavelet analysis and significant positive correlations for detrended data.The observed land-sea thermal contrast change was poorly simulated.The major weakness of FGOALS-s2 was an exaggerated warming response to anthropogenic forcing,with the simulation showing results that were far removed from observations prior to the 1950s.The observations featured warming trends (1906-2005)of 0.71,0.68 and 0.79℃ (100 yr) 1 for global,Northern and Southern Hemispheric averages,which were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 [1.42,1.52 and 1.13℃ (100 yr)-1] but underestimated by FGOALS-g2 [0.69,0.68 and 0.73℃ (100 yr)-1].The polar amplification of the warming trend was exaggerated in FGOALS-s2 but weakly reproduced in FGOALS-g2.The stronger response of FGOALS-s2 to anthropogenic forcing was caused by strong sea-ice albedo feedback and water vapor feedback.Examination of model results in 15 selected subcontinental-scale regions showed reasonable performance for FGOALS-g2 over most regions.However,the observed warming trends were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 in most regions.Over East Asia,the meridional gradient of the warming trend simulated by FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) was stronger (weaker)than observed.

  1. Regional to Global Assessments of Phytoplankton Dynamics From The SeaWiFS Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, David; Behrenfeld, Michael; Maritorena, Stephanie; McClain, Charles R.; Antoine, David; Bailey, Sean W.; Bontempi, Paula S.; Boss, Emmanuel S.; Dierssen, Heidi M.; Doney, Scott C.; Eplee, R. E., Jr.; Evans, Robert H.; Feldman, Gene C.; Fields, Erik; Franz, Bryan A.; Kuring, Norman A.; Mengelt, Claudia; Nelson, Norman B.; Patt, Fred S.; Robinson, Wayne D.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Swan, C. M.; Werdell, Paul J.; Westberry, T. K.; Wilding, John G.; Yoder, J. A.

    2013-01-01

    Photosynthetic production of organic matter by microscopic oceanic phytoplankton fuels ocean ecosystems and contributes roughly half of the Earth's net primary production. For 13 years, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission provided the first consistent, synoptic observations of global ocean ecosystems. Changes in the surface chlorophyll concentration, the primary biological property retrieved from SeaWiFS, have traditionally been used as a metric for phytoplankton abundance and its distribution largely reflects patterns in vertical nutrient transport. On regional to global scales, chlorophyll concentrations covary with sea surface temperature (SST) because SST changes reflect light and nutrient conditions. However, the oceanmay be too complex to be well characterized using a single index such as the chlorophyll concentration. A semi-analytical bio-optical algorithm is used to help interpret regional to global SeaWiFS chlorophyll observations from using three independent, well-validated ocean color data products; the chlorophyll a concentration, absorption by CDM and particulate backscattering. First, we show that observed long-term, global-scale trends in standard chlorophyll retrievals are likely compromised by coincident changes in CDM. Second, we partition the chlorophyll signal into a component due to phytoplankton biomass changes and a component caused by physiological adjustments in intracellular chlorophyll concentrations to changes in mixed layer light levels. We show that biomass changes dominate chlorophyll signals for the high latitude seas and where persistent vertical upwelling is known to occur, while physiological processes dominate chlorophyll variability over much of the tropical and subtropical oceans. The SeaWiFS data set demonstrates complexity in the interpretation of changes in regional to global phytoplankton distributions and illustrates limitations for the assessment of phytoplankton dynamics using chlorophyll

  2. Microstructural Developments Leading to New Advanced High Strength Sheet Steels: A Historical Assessment of Critical Metallographic Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matlock, David K [CSM/ASPPRC; Thomas, Larrin S [CSM/ASPPRC; Taylor, Mark D [CSM/ASPPRC; De Moor, Emmanuel [CSM/ASPPRC; Speer, John G [CSM/ASPPRC

    2015-08-03

    In the past 30+ years significant advancements have been made in the development of higher strength sheet steels with improved combinations of strength and ductility that have enabled important product improvements leading to safer, lighter weight, and more fuel efficient automobiles and in other applications. Properties of the primarily low carbon, low alloy steels are derived through careful control of time-temperature processing histories designed to produce multiphase ferritic based microstructures that include martensite and other constituents including retained austenite. The basis for these developments stems from the early work on dual-phase steels which was the subject of much interest. In response to industry needs, dual-phase steels have evolved as a unique class of advanced high strength sheet steels (AHSS) in which the thermal and mechanical processing histories have been specifically designed to produce constituent combinations for the purpose of simultaneously controlling strength and deformation behavior, i.e. stress-strain curve shapes. Improvements continue as enhanced dual-phase steels have recently been produced with finer microstructures, higher strengths, and better overall formability. Today, dual phase steels are the primary AHSS products used in vehicle manufacture, and several companies have indicated that the steels will remain as important design materials well into the future. In this presentation, fundamental results from the early work on dual-phase steels will be reviewed and assessed in light of recent steel developments. Specific contributions from industry/university cooperative research leading to product improvements will be highlighted. The historical perspective provided in the evolution of dual-phase steels represents a case-study that provides important framework and lessons to be incorporated in next generation AHSS products.

  3. Global and 3D spatial assessment of neuroinflammation in rodent models of Multiple Sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shashank Gupta

    Full Text Available Multiple Sclerosis (MS is a progressive autoimmune inflammatory and demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS. T cells play a key role in the progression of neuroinflammation in MS and also in the experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE animal models for the disease. A technology for quantitative and 3 dimensional (3D spatial assessment of inflammation in this and other CNS inflammatory conditions is much needed. Here we present a procedure for 3D spatial assessment and global quantification of the development of neuroinflammation based on Optical Projection Tomography (OPT. Applying this approach to the analysis of rodent models of MS, we provide global quantitative data of the major inflammatory component as a function of the clinical course. Our data demonstrates a strong correlation between the development and progression of neuroinflammation and clinical disease in several mouse and a rat model of MS refining the information regarding the spatial dynamics of the inflammatory component in EAE. This method provides a powerful tool to investigate the effect of environmental and genetic forces and for assessing the therapeutic effects of drug therapy in animal models of MS and other neuroinflammatory/neurodegenerative disorders.

  4. Kajian Dampak Lingkungan Global dari Kegiatan Keramba Jaring Apung melalui Life Cycle Assessment (LCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tri Heru Prihadi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Perubahan iklim global yang berlangsung saat ini memberikan pengaruh pada berbagai bidang, termasuk perikanan yang menyebabkan terjadinya degradasi lingkungan perairan. Hal ini berdampak pada muncul dan menyebarnya berbagai penyakit ikan, menurunnya laju pertumbuhan organisme perairan, bahkan hingga menimbulkan kematian massal ikan. Namun hal ini belum sepenuhnya dapat diatasi oleh para ilmuwan tanah air, bahkan bisa dikatakan baru sebagian kecil saja. Penerapan Best Management Practice (BMP dengan aplikasi Life Cycle Assessment (LCA akan sangat berarti dalam upaya penerapan perikanan budidaya berkelanjutan, dengan model pengelolaan kuantitatif. Dalam hal ini metode LCA secara kuantitatif merupakan pertama kalinya dilakukan di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dan mengevaluasi kuantitas dan kategori dampak lingkungan akibat kegiatan budidaya keramba jaring apung (KJA melalui LCA. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kegiatan budidaya di KJA menimbulkan dampak yang signifikan terhadap lingkungan perairan. Dari berbagai faktor yang berperan dalam kegiatan budidaya KJA, pakan ikan merupakan faktor yang paling dominan dalam menghasilkan dampak lingkungan global (di atas 70%, berupa pemanasan global, penurunan jumlah sumberdaya abiotik, eutrofikasi, penipisan lapisan ozon, toksisitas pada manusia, dan penurunan jumlah keanekaragaman hayati. Dari faktor pakan tersebut, unsur yang paling berpengaruh dalam menghasilkan dampak lingkungan adalah soybean Brazil dan winter wheat, sehingga perlu dicari alternatif bahan untuk mensubstitusi kedua unsur tersebut. Demikian juga faktor-faktor lainnya (seperti: polystyrene foams, drum plastik, bambu, jaring, besi, skala budidaya, dan lain-lain mempunyai peranan terhadap dampak yang ditimbulkan terhadap lingkungan perairan. Global climate change has been affecting many sectors, including fisheries causing aquatic environment degradation such as fish disease outbreaks, decreasing growth rate of fish

  5. Architectural/historical assessment of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge Reservation, Anderson and Roane Counties, Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carver, M.; Slater, M.

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is required by the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) of 1966, as amended, to identify any properties under its jurisdiction that are included in or eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places (National Register). In March 1993 Duvall & Associates, Inc., was engaged to survey the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), a DOE facility located on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in Anderson and Roane Counties, Tennessee, and to prepare a determination of National Register eligibility for all ORNL properties. The purpose of this report is to summarize the results of research into the historical context of ORNL and at to identify historic properties at ORNL that are included in present or eligible for inclusion in the National Register. The identification of archaeological properties at ORNL that are included and eligible for inclusion in the National Register Clinton is addressed in a separate report.

  6. Historical foundations of hormesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The present paper provides an historical assessment of the concept of hormesis and its relationship to homeopathy and modern medicine. It is argued that the dose-response concept was profoundly influenced by the conflict between homeopathy and traditional medicine and that decisions on which dose-response model to adopt were not based on "science" but rater on historical antipathies. While the historical dispute between homeopathy and traditional medicine has long since subsided, their impact upon the field has been enduring and generally unappreciated, profoundly adversely affecting current drug development, therapeutic strategies and environmental risk assessment strategies and policies.

  7. Agriculture and Rural Development on Fort Hood Lands, 1849-1942: National Register Assessments of 710 Historic Archeological Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-04-01

    producers on the Fort Hood versity Medical School where he was valedicto- lands between 1893 and 1915. More typical of rian of his class in 1891. He...to historic properties at Fort Hood is the tions (including watering devices , fences, gins, place where the historic property was con- and mills...structed to eradicate ticks and scabies , or the live- a specific space. A ranch or farm headquarters stock kill sites of the 1930s. Such nondomestic

  8. Acquired and Participatory Competencies in Health Professions Education: Definition and Assessment in Global Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichbaum, Quentin

    2016-09-06

    Many health professions education programs in high-income countries (HICs) have adopted a competency-based approach to learning. Although global health programs have followed this trend, defining and assessing competencies has proven problematic, particularly in resource-constrained settings of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where HIC students and trainees perform elective work. In part, this is due to programs failing to take sufficient account of local learning, cultural, and health contexts.A major divide between HIC and LMIC settings is that the learning contexts of HICs are predominantly individualist, whereas those of LMICs are generally collectivist. Individualist cultures view learning as something that the individual acquires independent of context and can possess; collectivist cultures view learning as arising dynamically from specific contexts through group participation.To bridge the individualist-collectivist learning divide, the author proposes that competencies be classified as either acquired or participatory. Acquired competencies can be transferred across contexts and assessed using traditional psychometric approaches; participatory competencies are linked to contexts and require alternative assessment approaches. The author proposes assessing participatory competencies through the approach of self-directed assessment seeking, which includes multiple members of the health care team as assessors.The proposed classification of competencies as acquired or participatory may apply across health professions. The author suggests advancing participatory competencies through mental models of sharing. In global health education, the author recommends developing three new competency domains rooted in participatory learning, collectivism, and sharing: resourceful learning; transprofessionalism and transformative learning; and social justice and health equity.

  9. Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter S Rand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

  10. A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  11. Upper Klamath Lake Basin nutrient-loading study; assessment of historic flows in the Williamson and Sprague rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risley, John C.; Laenen, Antonius

    1999-01-01

    irrigation, grazing, drainage, and timber harvesting, may have had some impact on the hydrology within the Williamson River Basin. However, relating specific land-use activities to changes in flow is impossible to assess owing to the size and geologic complexity of the basin and to the paucity of historical land- and water-use data for local areas.

  12. Valoración global subjetiva en el paciente neoplásico Subjective global assessment in neoplastic patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Gómez-Candela

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Dado que la malnutrición es una complicación frecuente en los pacientes con cáncer, es necesario identificarla con herramientas sencillas. La valoración subjetiva global (SGA es un medio para valorar el estado nutricional basado en parámetros clínicos y puede ser empleada por un clínico con un entrenamiento básico. Nuestra intención es determinar la utilidad de la SGA empleada por personal ajeno a Nutrición Clínica para comprobar si se identifican adecuadamente los pacientes con malnutrición. En nuestro estudio se incluyeron treinta pacientes ambulatorios de ambos sexos con diversas formas activas de neoplasia, en tratamiento con quimio o radioterapia. Se realizó la SGA de forma independiente por el personal de Oncología y el de Nutrición Clínica tras completar los pacientes parte del cuestionario; asimismo se realizaron determinaciones bioquímicas y antropométricas. Se diagnosticó malnutrición o sospecha de la misma en el 63% de los pacientes al ser valorados por Oncología, el 30% por Nutrición Clínica y por medidas antropométricas el 26%. La incidencia de malnutrición fue baja debido a que el tipo de cáncer mayoritario fue el colorrectal. En Oncología se tendía a diagnosticar más malnutrición debido a un entrenamiento insuficiente; sin embargo, la SGA fue útil ya que no se perdió ningún paciente malnutrido y se identificó al 50% de los pacientes bien nutridos, quienes no necesitan intervención nutricional.As malnutrition is a common complication among patients with cancer, it seems necessary identifying it with simple tools. Subjective Global Assessment (SGA is useful to evaluate nutritional status on a basis of clinical parameters and can be used by any clinician with a basic training. Our intention is to determine usefulness of SGA applied by staff not working at Clinical Nutrition to guess if they identify properly malnourished patients. We included in our study thirty male and female patients with several

  13. Inheritance and Innovation of Historical Culture in Urban Square Landscape Design under the Background of Globalization-Taking Xinjiang Ili Han Dynasty Culture Square as an Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenting Wu

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we take the landscape design of Xinjiang Ili Han Dynasty Culture Square as an example, conducts discussion over the inheritance and innovation of historical culture elements in three aspects, that is, theme connotation, general spatial layout and main design technique, on the basis that the category and type of historical culture and the application rule of historical culture in urban square design have been expounded. This study has conducted an initial discussion, which is to offer inspirations and references for the relevant theoretical study and design practice.

  14. Bibliometric analysis of global environmental assessment research in a 20-year period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Wei, E-mail: weili@bnu.edu.cn; Zhao, Yang

    2015-01-15

    Based on the samples of 113,468 publications on environmental assessment (EA) from the past 20 years, we used a bibliometric analysis to study the literature in terms of trends of growth, subject categories and journals, international collaboration, geographic distribution of publications, and scientific research issues. By applying thresholds to network centralities, a core group of countries can be distinguished as part of the international collaboration network. A frequently used keywords analysis found that the priority in assessment would gradually change from project environmental impact assessment (EIA) to strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Decision-theoretic approaches (i.e., environmental indicator selection, life cycle assessment, etc.), along with new technologies and methods (i.e., the geographic information system and modeling) have been widely applied in the EA research field over the past 20 years. Hot spots such as “biodiversity” and “climate change” have been emphasized in current EA research, a trend that will likely continue in the future. The h-index has been used to evaluate the research quality among countries all over the world, while the improvement of developing countries' EA systems is becoming a popular research topic. Our study reveals patterns in scientific outputs and academic collaborations and serves as an alternative and innovative way of revealing global research trends in the EA research field.

  15. Economic filters for evaluating porphyry copper deposit resource assessments using grade-tonnage deposit models, with examples from the U.S. Geological Survey global mineral resource assessment: Chapter H in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson,, Gilpin R.; Menzie, W. David

    2012-01-01

    An analysis of the amount and location of undiscovered mineral resources that are likely to be economically recoverable is important for assessing the long-term adequacy and availability of mineral supplies. This requires an economic evaluation of estimates of undiscovered resources generated by traditional resource assessments (Singer and Menzie, 2010). In this study, simplified engineering cost models were used to estimate the economic fraction of resources contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits, predicted in a global assessment of copper resources. The cost models of Camm (1991) were updated with a cost index to reflect increases in mining and milling costs since 1989. The updated cost models were used to perform an economic analysis of undiscovered resources estimated in porphyry copper deposits in six tracts located in North America. The assessment estimated undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within 1 kilometer of the land surface in three depth intervals.

  16. Assessment of periphyton, aquatic macrophytes, benthic communities, and physical habitat in midwestern United States streams coinciding with varying historical concentrations of atrazine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Lenwood W; Anderson, Ronald D; Killen, William D; Hosmer, Alan J; Brain, Richard A

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this pilot study were to: (1) characterize periphyton and benthic communities using standard collection methods in six Midwest watersheds with varying historical levels of atrazine (low range, medium range and upper range); (2) qualitatively assess presence of aquatic vascular plants at each site; (3) assess and compare physical habitat at each study site in order to evaluate how physical habitat structure may influence the biological communities and (4) analyze the periphyton and benthic macroinvertebrate community data (i.e., series of metrics) among sites to evaluate possible differences or similarities among sites with different historical atrazine exposures. Five of the eight physical habitat metrics (including total physical habitat score) were different among the six study sites. There appeared to be no substantial difference in the structure of periphtyon communities at the six Midwest sites based on 9 of 12 metrics. For the three metrics that showed differences among sites-percentage of sensitive diatoms, percent Achnanches minutissima and percent motile diatoms - there was no consistent pattern with previous degrees of atrazine exposure and the scoring of these metrics. There were also no statistical differences in aquatic macrophyte spatial coverage among the six study areas. Thus, based on the spatially and temporally limited periphyton and aquatic macrophyte data, varying historical atrazine exposure was not associated with impact on resident plant communities (the target receptor group for atrazine). All 10 benthic community metrics showed significant differences among the six Midwest sites. Although no consistent pattern existed with varying historic levels of atrazine, benthic communities at one site with lower historical levels of atrazine were of higher quality than the other five sites. However, this one site also had a higher quality habitat compared to the other sites which was most likely the reason for this benthic condition.

  17. A global approach for sparse representation of uncertainty in Life Cycle Assessments of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisinella, Valentina; Conradsen, Knut; Christensen, Thomas Højlund;

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Identification of key inputs and their effect on results from Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) models is fundamental. Because parameter importance varies greatly between cases due to the interaction of sensitivity and uncertainty, these features should never be defined a priori. However...... and uncertainty in a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) framework. Methods: The proposed analytical method based on the calculation of sensitivity coefficients (SC) is evaluated against Monte Carlo sampling on traditional uncertainty assessment procedures, both for individual parameters and for full parameter sets...... of additivity of variances and GSA is tested on results from both uncertainty propagation methods. Then, we examine the differences in discernibility analyses results carried out with varying numbers of sampling points and parameters. Results and discussion: The proposed analytical method complies...

  18. Exploring Global Exposure Factors Resources for Use in Consumer Exposure Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosemary T. Zaleski

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This publication serves as a global comprehensive resource for readers seeking exposure factor data and information relevant to consumer exposure assessment. It describes the types of information that may be found in various official surveys and online and published resources. The relevant exposure factors cover a broad range, including general exposure factor data found in published compendia and databases and resources about specific exposure factors, such as human activity patterns and housing information. Also included are resources on exposure factors related to specific types of consumer products and the associated patterns of use, such as for a type of personal care product or a type of children’s toy. Further, a section on using exposure factors for designing representative exposure scenarios is included, along with a look into the future for databases and other exposure science developments relevant for consumer exposure assessment.

  19. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Peduzzi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

  20. Can migration health assessments become a mechanism for global public health good?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramage, Kolitha; Mosca, Davide

    2014-09-26

    Migrant health assessments (HAs) consist of a medical examination to assess a migrant's health status and to provide medical clearance for work or residency based on conditions defined by the destination country and/or employer. We argue that better linkages between health systems and migrant HA processors at the country level are needed to shift these from being limited as an instrument of determining non-admissibility for purposes of visa issuance, to a process that may enhance public health. The importance of providing appropriate care and follow-up of migrants who "fail" their HA and the need for global efforts to enable data-collection and research on HAs are also highlighted.

  1. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  2. Historical bottle temperature and salinity data collected globally by multiple platforms from 1868 to 1959, submitted by the German Data Center (BSH) (NODC Accession 0071062)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Historical bottle temperature and salinity data from the German data center, Bundesamt fur Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH) in Hamburg. The data contain...

  3. An assessment of TanDEM-X GlobalDEM over rural and urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Huber, Martin; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew; Lucas, Richard

    2014-10-01

    Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a key input for the development of risk management systems. Main limitation of the current available DEM is the low level of resolution. DEMs such as STRM 90m or ASTER are globally available free of charge, but offer limited use, for example, to flood modelers in most geographic areas. TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement), the first bistatic SAR can fulfil this gap. The mission objective is the generation of a consistent global digital elevation model with an unprecedented accuracy according to the HRTI-3 (High Resolution Terrain Information) specifications. The mission opens a new era in risk assessment. In the framework of ALTAMIRA INFORMATION research activities, the DIAPASON (Differential Interferometric Automated Process Applied to Survey Of Nature) processing chain has been successfully adapted to TanDEM-X CoSSC (Coregistered Slant Range Single Look Complex) data processing. In this study the capability of CoSSC data for DEM generation is investigated. Within the on-going FP7 RASOR project (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk), the generated DEM are compared with Intermediate DEM derived from the TanDEM-X first global coverage. The results are presented and discussed.

  4. Assessment of impact of strong earthquakes to the global economy by example of Thoku event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Sergey, Baranov; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova

    2016-04-01

    We examine the economic consequences of strong earthquakes by example of M9 Tahoku one that occurred on March 11, 2011 close to the northeast shore of Japanese coast Honshu. This earthquake became the strongest in the whole history of the seismological observations in this part of the planet. The generated tsunami killed more than 15,700 people, damaged 332,395 buildings and 2,126 roads. The total economic loss in Japan was estimated at 309 billion. The catastrophe in Japan also impacted global economy. To estimate its impact, we used regional and global stock indexes, production indexes, stock prices of the main Japanese, European and US companies, import and export dynamics, as well as the data provided by the custom of Japan. We also demonstrated that the catastrophe substantially affected the markets and on the short run in some indicators it even exceeded the effect of the global financial crisis of 2008. The last strong earthquake occurred in Nepal (25.04.2015, M7.8) and Chile (16.09.2015, M8.3), both actualized the research of cost assessments of the overall economic impact of seismic hazard. We concluded that it is necessary to treat strong earthquakes as one very important factor that affects the world economy depending on their location. The research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-06-00056A).

  5. The first three years of the Journal of Global Health: Assessing the impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Marušić, Ana

    2014-06-01

    The Journal of Global Health (JoGH) is three years old. To assess its impact, we analysed online access to JoGH's articles using PubMed Central and Google Analytics tools. Moreover, we tracked citations that JoGH received in 2013 using ISI Web of Knowledge(SM) and Google Scholar® tools. The 66 items (articles, viewpoints and editorials) published between June 2011 and December 2013 were accessed more than 50 000 times during 2013, from more than 160 countries of the world. Seven among the 13 most accessed papers were focused on global, regional and national epidemiological estimates of important infectious diseases. JoGH articles published in 2011 and 2012 received 77 citations in Journal Citation Reports® (JCR)-indexed journals in 2013 to 24 original research articles, setting our first, unofficial impact factor at 3.208. In addition, JoGH received 11 citations during 2013 to its 12 original research papers published during 2013, resulting in an immediacy index of 0.917. The number of external, non-commissioned submissions that we consider to be of high quality is continuously increasing, leading to current JoGH's rejection rate of about 80%. The current citation analysis raises favourable expectations for the JoGH's overall impact on the global health community in future years.

  6. Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu; Calvin, Katherine; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kyle, Page; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall; Davies, Evan

    2016-01-22

    Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater sources and desalinated water—across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. This study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in IAMs and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.

  7. The first three years of the Journal of Global Health: Assessing the impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Rudan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Journal of Global Health (JoGH is three years old. To assess its impact, we analysed online access to JoGH’s articles using PubMed Central and Google Analytics tools. Moreover, we tracked citations that JoGH received in 2013 using ISI Web of KnowledgeSM and Google Scholar® tools. The 66 items (articles, viewpoints and editorials published between June 2011 and December 2013 were accessed more than 50 000 times during 2013, from more than 160 countries of the world. Seven among the 13 most accessed papers were focused on global, regional and national epidemiological estimates of important infectious diseases. JoGH articles published in 2011 and 2012 received 77 citations in Journal Citation Reports® (JCR–indexed journals in 2013 to 24 original research articles, setting our first, unofficial impact factor at 3.208. In addition, JoGH received 11 citations during 2013 to its 12 original research papers published during 2013, resulting in an immediacy index of 0.917. The number of external, non–commissioned submissions that we consider to be of high quality is continuously increasing, leading to current JoGH’s rejection rate of about 80%. The current citation analysis raises favourable expectations for the JoGH’s overall impact on the global health community in future years.

  8. An integration of historical records and genetic data to the assessment of global distribution and population structure in Octopus vulgaris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele eDe Luca

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The common octopus (Octopus vulgaris Cuvier, 1797 is one of the most widely distributed species belonging to the genus Octopus as well as an important commercially harvested species and a model organism for behavioral biology of invertebrates. It has been described for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea but it is considered a cosmopolitan species inhabiting the temperate and tropical sea of the northern and southern hemispheres. In the last few years, several species previously considered as O. vulgaris have been recognized as new species, limiting the distributional range of vulgaris and reinforcing the thesis of a species complex. Where it is an important fishery resource, numerous studies have been conducted in order to define its genetic structure with the purpose of managing different stocks. However, many locations are still poorly investigated from this point of view and others are under taxonomic revision to exclude or confirm its occurrence. Here we provide a summary of the current status of knowledge on distribution and genetic structure in this species in the different oceanic regions.

  9. Diagnostic outcome following routine genetics clinic referral for the assessment of global developmental delay.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Shahdadpuri, R

    2012-02-01

    The aim of this study was to ascertain the diagnostic yield following a routine genetics clinic referral for the assessment of global developmental delay. Detailed retrospective review of 119 complete consecutive case notes of patients referred to one single clinical geneticist over a 14 month time period was undertaken (n = 119; 54 males, 65 females). The age at initial review ranged from 2 months to 37 years 3 months (mean 8 y 3 mo [SD 7 y 10 mo]). We made a diagnosis in 36\\/119 (30%); 21\\/36 were new diagnoses and 15\\/36 were confirmations of diagnoses. We removed a wrong diagnostic label in 8\\/119 (7%). In 3\\/8 we were able to achieve a diagnosis but in 5\\/8 no alternative diagnosis was reached. We had a better diagnostic rate where the patients were dysmorphic (odds ratio [OR] 1.825; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.065 to 3.128, p = 0.044). In the majority, the diagnosis was made by clinical examination only. Molecular diagnosis was reached in seven cases. Five cases were confirmed by cytogenetic analysis. Brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealed a diagnosis in three cases. This study confirms the importance of a clinical genetics assessment in the investigation of global developmental delay.

  10. The Global Modeling Initiative Assessment Model: Model Description, Integration and Testing of the Transport Shell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rotman, D.A.; Tannahill, J.R.; Kinnison, D.E.; Connell, P.S.; Bergmann, D.; Proctor, D.; Rodriquez, J.M.; Lin, S.J.; Rood, R.B.; Prather, M.J.; Rasch, P.J.; Considine, D.B.; Ramaroson, R.; Kawa, S.R.

    2000-04-25

    We describe the three dimensional global stratospheric chemistry model developed under the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) to assess the possible environmental consequences from the emissions of a fleet of proposed high speed civil transport aircraft. This model was developed through a unique collaboration of the members of the GMI team. Team members provided computational modules representing various physical and chemical processes, and analysis of simulation results through extensive comparison to observation. The team members' modules were integrated within a computational framework that allowed transportability and simulations on massively parallel computers. A unique aspect of this model framework is the ability to interchange and intercompare different submodules to assess the sensitivity of numerical algorithms and model assumptions to simulation results. In this paper, we discuss the important attributes of the GMI effort, describe the GMI model computational framework and the numerical modules representing physical and chemical processes. As an application of the concept, we illustrate an analysis of the impact of advection algorithms on the dispersion of a NO{sub y}-like source in the stratosphere which mimics that of a fleet of commercial supersonic transports (High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT)) flying between 17 and 20 kilometers.

  11. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher W Woodall

    Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational

  12. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodall, Christopher W; Domke, Grant M; Riley, Karin L; Oswalt, Christopher M; Crocker, Susan J; Yohe, Gary W

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass) and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor) with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario). Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making) using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation) among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1) robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2) projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change), and 3) appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States). Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery) suggests an operational forest C

  13. Global Ecological Human Imprint, Sustainable Development and Environment: Assessment and Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safwat H. Shakir Hanna

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecological Human Imprint (EHI, sustainability, and environment form three points of thetriangle of technology development. These three points when integrated are the key tounderstanding how to improve global sustainability. The present research focuses onassessment and impacts of global issues of sustainability of human activities. This researchuses modeling of these points and predicts the impacts of human activities on our globalEarth and its natural resources and in consequence, the economic and social impacts.Further, the model uses assessments to develop suggestions about how to conserve ourglobal environment and natural resources for future generations. The model is constructedon data collected and analyzed using published data from USA Agencies: United NationAgencies and other public published data from different countries in the world. Stella™software is used in the development of the model to make the prediction for the next 100years.The results of research applying the model are presented in three scenarios. Thesescenarios are formed applying (1 relaxed, (2 moderate, and (3 very conservativeassumptions. In addition to these scenarios, predictions are developed according to thereal-time data availability. According to the model, it is very important to maintain thetrend of more efficient use of natural resources. Additionally, the more widespreadeducation is very important to combat high demands for on natural resources and toconserve existing resources for continuation of global ecosystems and to supply life onEarth with the goods and services needed. Further, it is important to maintain the globalthe regenerative biological capacities (i.e. renewable resources of Earth, while conserving(and developing new sources of non-renewable resources. Finally, the model shows thatthe nations should close the gaps between population growth and the economicdevelopment.Key Words: Ecology, natural resources, world population, sustainable

  14. Data-based assessment of environmental controls on global marine nitrogen fixation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-W. Luo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available There are a number of hypotheses for the environmental controls on marine nitrogen fixation (NF. Most of these hypotheses have not been assessed against direct measurements on the global scale. In this study, we use ~ 500 depth-integrated field measurements of NF covering the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to test whether the spatial variance of these measurements can be explained by the commonly hypothesized environmental controls, including measurement-based surface solar radiation, mixed layer depth, sea surface temperature, surface nitrate and phosphate concentrations, surface excess phosphate (P*, atmospheric dust deposition and surface wind speed, as well as minimum dissolved oxygen in upper 500 m to identify possible subsurface denitrification zones. By conducting simple linear regression and stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR analyses, solar radiation and/or sea surface temperature as well as subsurface dissolved oxygen are identified as the predictors explaining the most spatial variance in the observed NF data, while dust deposition and wind speed do not appear to influence the spatial patterns of NF on global scale. Our study suggests that marine NF is coupled to regional loss of fixed nitrogen induced by subsurface low oxygen concentration, with its magnitude constrained by solar radiation or temperature. By applying the MLR-derived equation, we estimate the global-integrated NF at 71 (error range 49–104 Tg N yr−1 in the open ocean, acknowledging that it could be substantially higher as the 15N2-assimilation method used by most of the field samples underestimates NF. Our conclusion suggests that marine NF will increase in the future if subsurface nitrogen-losses increase as a consequence of developing deoxygenation with the global warming, a projection that will be modulated by other factors such as warming, elevated carbon dioxide, and changes in macro- and micro-nutrient distributions. More field NF samples in the

  15. Advancing global hydro-climatological data archives to support climate change impact assessments on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saile, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variations and changing climate will very likely alter the rate and nature of hydrological processes and consequently affect water resources in many regions. Current General Circulation Models and downscaling methods that are increasingly used to assess changes in the water cycle and water resource vulnerabilities introduce a cascade of uncertainties that cannot realistically be dealt with at the moment and are too inaccurate to support improved decision-making for water management and for future water systems design. Therefore, water managers need not only improved hydrological and climate modelling and downscaling methods but also access to adequate hydro-meteorological monitoring networks. The Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology (GTN-H), a joint effort by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and several global observing systems, aims at integrating in-situ and remote sensing hydrological observations with hydrological model results held by its partner institutions to support a wide range of hydrological applications including research of global and regional climate change. Adhering to the different needs of all data users (scientists, policy makes and other stakeholders) and bridging the gap between the distributed datasets, currently a new information system is being developed to enable web-based discovery, access and analysis of observation data and derived products served through GTN-H. This system is built on international standards published by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) using open standardized web services, namely (1) Catalogue Services for data discovery, (2) Web Map Services for data visualization and (3) Web Feature Services, Web Coverage Services and Sensor Observation Services for data access. This presentation will give an overview about the GTN-H data archive and the design of the new information system including an outlook of its potential use for water related climate change impact assessments.

  16. Towards a New Assessment of Urban Areas from Local to Global Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaduri, B. L.; Roy Chowdhury, P. K.; McKee, J.; Weaver, J.; Bright, E.; Weber, E.

    2015-12-01

    Since early 2000s, starting with NASA MODIS, satellite based remote sensing has facilitated collection of imagery with medium spatial resolution but high temporal resolution (daily). This trend continues with an increasing number of sensors and data products. Increasing spatial and temporal resolutions of remotely sensed data archives, from both public and commercial sources, have significantly enhanced the quality of mapping and change data products. However, even with automation of such analysis on evolving computing platforms, rates of data processing have been suboptimal largely because of the ever-increasing pixel to processor ratio coupled with limitations of the computing architectures. Novel approaches utilizing spatiotemporal data mining techniques and computational architectures have emerged that demonstrates the potential for sustained and geographically scalable landscape monitoring to be operational. We exemplify this challenge with two broad research initiatives on High Performance Geocomputation at Oak Ridge National Laboratory: (a) mapping global settlement distribution; (b) developing national critical infrastructure databases. Our present effort, on large GPU based architectures, to exploit high resolution (1m or less) satellite and airborne imagery for extracting settlements at global scale is yielding understanding of human settlement patterns and urban areas at unprecedented resolution. Comparison of such urban land cover database, with existing national and global land cover products, at various geographic scales in selected parts of the world is revealing intriguing patterns and insights for urban assessment. Early results, from the USA, Taiwan, and Egypt, indicate closer agreements (5-10%) in urban area assessments among databases at larger, aggregated geographic extents. However, spatial variability at local scales could be significantly different (over 50% disagreement).

  17. Geospatial assessment and monitoring of historical forest cover changes (1920-2012) in Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, Western Ghats, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satish, K V; Saranya, K R L; Reddy, C Sudhakar; Krishna, P Hari; Jha, C S; Rao, P V V Prasada

    2014-12-01

    Deforestation in the biosphere reserves, which are key Protected Areas has negative impacts on biodiversity, climate, carbon fluxes and livelihoods. Comprehensive study of deforestation in biosphere reserves is required to assess the impact of the management effectiveness. This article assesses the changes in forest cover in various zones and protected areas of Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, the first declared biosphere reserve in India which forms part of Western Ghats-a global biodiversity hotspot. In this study, we have mapped the forests from earliest available topographical maps and multi-temporal satellite data spanning from 1920's to 2012 period. Mapping of spatial extent of forest cover, vegetation types and land cover was carried out using visual interpretation technique. A grid cell of 1 km × 1 km was generated for time series change analysis to understand the patterns in spatial distribution of forest cover (1920-1973-1989-1999-2006-2012). The total forest area of biosphere reserve was found to be 5,806.5 km(2) (93.8 % of total geographical area) in 1920. Overall loss of forest cover was estimated as 1,423.6 km(2) (24.5 % of the total forest) with reference to 1920. Among the six Protected Areas, annual deforestation rate of >0.5 was found in Wayanad wildlife sanctuary during 1920-1973. The deforestation in Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve is mainly attributed to conversion of forests to plantations and agriculture along with submergence due to construction of dams during 1920 to 1989. Grid wise analysis indicates that 851 grids have undergone large-scale negative changes of >75 ha of forest loss during 1920-1973 while, only 15 grids have shown >75 ha loss during 1973-1989. Annual net rate of deforestation for the period of 1920 to 1973 was calculated as 0.5 followed by 0.1 for 1973 to 1989. Our analysis shows that there was large-scale deforestation before the declaration of area as biosphere reserve in 1986; however, the deforestation has drastically

  18. Applications of Non-destructive methods (GPR and 3D Laser Scanner) in Historic Masonry Arch Bridge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alani, Amir; Banks, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    There exist approximately 70,000 masonry arch bridge spans (brick and stone) in the UK with tens of thousands more throughout Europe. A significant number of these bridges are still in operation and form part of the road and rail network systems in many countries. A great majority of these bridges are in desperate need of repair and maintenance. Applications of non-destructive testing methods such as ground penetrating radar (GPR), 3D laser scanning, accelerometer sensors and vibration detecting sensors amongst many others have been used to assess and monitor such structures in the past few years. This presentation provides results of the applications of a 2GHz GPR antenna system and a 3D laser scanner on a historic masonry arch bridge (the Old Bridge, Aylesford) located in Kent, in the south east of England. The older part of the bridge (the mid-span) is 860 years old. The bridge was the subject of a major alteration in 1811. This presentation forms part of a larger ongoing study which is using the two above mentioned non-destructive methods for long-term monitoring of the bridge. The adopted survey planning strategy and technique, data acquisition and processing as well as challenges encountered during actual survey and fieldworks have been discussed in this presentation. As a result of this study the position of different layers of the deck structure has been established with the identification of the original stone base of the bridge. This information in addition to the location of a number of structural ties (anchors - remedial work carried out previously) in the absence of reliable and accurate design details proved to be extremely useful for the modelling of the bridge using the finite element method. Results of the 3D laser scanning of the bridge have also been presented which have provided invaluable data essential for the accurate modelling of the bridge as well as the long term monitoring of the bridge. 2014 EGU-GA GI3.1 Session, organised by COST Action

  19. Assessment and remediation of a historical pipeline release : tools, techniques and technologies applied to in-situ/ex-situ soil and groundwater remediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid, N. [EBA Engineering Consultants Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Kohlsmith, B. [Kinder Morgan Canada Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    Tools, techniques, and technologies applied to in-situ/ex-situ soil and groundwater remediation were presented as part of an assessment and remediation of a historical pipeline release. The presentation discussed the initial assessment, as well as a discussion of remediation of hydrophobic soils, re-assessment, site specific criteria, a remediation trial involving bioventing and chemical oxidation, and a full scale remediation. The pipeline release occurred in the summer of 1977. The event was followed by a complete surface remediation with a significant amount of topsoil being removed and replaced. In 2004, a landowner complained of poor crop growth in four patches near the area of the historical spill. An initial assessment was undertaken and several photographs were presented. It was concluded that a comprehensive assessment set the base for a careful staged approach to the remediation of the site including the establishment of site specific criteria. The process was made possible with a high level of communication between all stakeholders. In addition, the most appropriate solution for the site was realized. figs.

  20. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-García, Sara; Gasol, Carles M; Lozano, Raúl García; Moreira, María Teresa; Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO(2)) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. "Indoor products" included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the "Outdoor products" analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO(2) emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  1. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez-Garcia, Sara, E-mail: sara.gonzalez@usc.es [Division of Biology, Department of Life Sciences, Sir Alexander Fleming Building, Imperial College of London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gasol, Carles M.; Lozano, Raul Garcia [Inedit Innovacio, Carretera de Cabrils, km 2 -IRTA-, 08348 Cabrils, Barcelona (Spain); SosteniPrA - UAB-IRTA, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Moreira, Ma Teresa [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan [SosteniPrA (UAB-IRTA), Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona UAB, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Feijoo, Gumersindo [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO{sub 2}) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. 'Indoor products' included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the 'Outdoor products' analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO{sub 2} emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  2. Change of Nutritional Status Assessed Using Subjective Global Assessment Is Associated With All-Cause Mortality in Incident Dialysis Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Young Eun; Kee, Youn Kyung; Yoon, Chang-Yun; Han, In Mee; Han, Seung Gyu; Park, Kyoung Sook; Lee, Mi Jung; Park, Jung Tak; Han, Seung H; Yoo, Tae-Hyun; Kim, Yong-Lim; Kim, Yon Su; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Nam-Ho; Kang, Shin-Wook

    2016-02-01

    Subjective global assessment (SGA) is associated with mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. However, little is known whether improvement or deterioration of nutritional status after dialysis initiation influences the clinical outcome. We aimed to elucidate the association between changes in nutritional status determined by SGA during the first year of dialysis and all-cause mortality in incident ESRD patients. This was a multicenter, prospective cohort study. Incident dialysis patients with available SGA data at both baseline and 12 months after dialysis commencement (n = 914) were analyzed. Nutritional status was defined as well nourished (WN, SGA A) or malnourished (MN, SGA B or C). The patients were divided into 4 groups according to the change in nutritional status between baseline and 12 months after dialysis commencement: group 1, WN to WN; group 2, MN to WN; group 3, WN to MN; and group 4, MN to MN. Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to clarify the association between changes in nutritional status and mortality. Being in the MN group at 12 months after dialysis initiation, but not at baseline, was a significant risk factor for mortality. There was a significant difference in the 3-year survival rates among the groups (group 1, 92.2%; group 2, 86.0%; group 3, 78.2%; and group 4, 63.5%; log-rank test, P nutritional status assessed by SGA during the first year of dialysis were associated with all-cause mortality in incident ESRD patients.

  3. Dutch Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA): training improves scores for comprehensibility and difficulty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sealy, Martine J.; Ottery, Faith; Roodenburg, Jan; Braak, Anne van der; Haven, Danique; Schans, Cees van der; Jager-Wittenaar, Harriët

    2015-01-01

    Rationale: The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) is a validated instrument to assess and monitor malnutrition, which consists of both patient-reported and professional-reported items. A professional should be able to correctly interpret all items. Untrained professionals may ex

  4. Association between Global Assessment of Functioning scores and indicators of functioning, severity, and prognosis in first-time schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köhler, Ole; Horsdal, Henriette Thisted; Baandrup, Lone;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Assessment of psychosocial functioning in people with schizophrenia is important. The Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF-F) scale represents a widely applied, easy, and quick tool, but its validity and reliability have been debated. The aim was to investigate whether GAF-F scores...

  5. Validity and Reliability of Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills (GOALS) in Novice Trainees Performing a Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramp, Kelvin H.; van Det, Marc J.; Hoff, Christiaan; Lamme, Bas; Veeger, Nic J. G. M.; Pierie, Jean-Pierre E. N.

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills (GOALS) assessment has been designed to evaluate skills in laparoscopic surgery. A longitudinal blinded study of randomized video fragments was conducted to estimate the validity and reliability of GOALS in novice trainees. METHODS: In tota

  6. A new approach to the assessment of flooding and dampness hazards in cultural heritage, applied to the historic centre of Seville (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Rocío; Ortiz, Pilar; Martín, José María; Vázquez, María Auxiliadora

    2016-05-01

    Flooding and dampness have caused considerable damage to historic towns and cities and have become more frequent in recent years. The aim of this paper is to analyse the hazards of flooding and dampness in historic cities to establish a methodology that prioritises preventive conservation actions and restorations. The case study concerns the historic centre of Seville (Spain) and parish churches built between the 13th and 18th centuries. Geographic information system (GIS) software has been used to assess hazards caused by flooding and dampness along with a Delphi consultation process surveying a multidisciplinary group of seven experts-archaeologists, geologists, chemists, architects, engineers and environmentalists-to gain a general overview of the hazards affecting each area of the city. Currently, the historic centre of Seville is at a very low risk of flooding due to the engineering works being undertaken to divert the river course. For flooding to occur, water levels would need to rise over 6 to 12m along the different sections of the defensive walls; as a result, the historic centre has not been flooded since 1961, when these defences broke. However, there is a continual presence of dampness due to the proximity of the river, the presence of underground water and the permeability of the subsoil, resulting in continual damage to the lower sections of the monuments studied. Hence, hazard maps of flooding and dampness need to be dovetailed. This new approach provides tools for decision-makers in the current crisis, allowing them to prioritise strategies that will minimise damage in a town, as the urban unit where territorial policies could be applied.

  7. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  8. Assessment of Historic Trend in Mobility and Energy Use in India Transportation Sector Using Bottom-up Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Nan; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-05-01

    Transportation mobility in India has increased significantly in the past decades. From 1970 to 2000, motorized mobility (passenger-km) has risen by 888%, compared with an 88% population growth (Singh,2006). This contributed to many energy and environmental issues, and an energy strategy incorporates efficiency improvement and other measures needs to be designed. Unfortunately, existing energy data do not provide information on driving forces behind energy use and sometime show large inconsistencies. Many previous studies address only a single transportation mode such as passenger road travel; did not include comprehensive data collection or analysis has yet been done, or lack detail on energy demand by each mode and fuel mix. The current study will fill a considerable gap in current efforts, develop a data base on all transport modes including passenger air and water, and freight in order to facilitate the development of energy scenarios and assess significance of technology potential in a global climate change model. An extensive literature review and data collection has been done to establish the database with breakdown of mobility, intensity, distance, and fuel mix of all transportation modes. Energy consumption was estimated and compared with aggregated transport consumption reported in IEA India transportation energy data. Different scenarios were estimated based on different assumptions on freight road mobility. Based on the bottom-up analysis, we estimated that the energy consumption from 1990 to 2000 increased at an annual growth rate of 7% for the mid-range road freight growth case and 12% for the high road freight growth case corresponding to the scenarios in mobility, while the IEA data only shows a 1.7% growth rate in those years.

  9. Assessing the existing context and proposed plan of Yazd historical texture from the point of access to emergency services using network analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Khalili

    2012-01-01

    each paths was obtained and the accessibility to the emergency centers was analyzed base on that.3- DiscussionIn the current situation, 40.8 percent of the parcels of Yazd historical texture have access to less than 4 meters of the street, which has reduced to 24 percent by the proposed plan. Also, in the existing context, more than 70 percent of the historical textures are farther (3 minutes from the global standards of accessing the emergency service centers and about 50 percent of the texture reach these services in a later time (8 minutes compared with the common time in Iran. The plan proposals based on the texture organizing and improving the connection network structure has resulted in a noticeable increase of the service area of the existing emergency center and consequently to an access to these services by a considerable part of the texture, such that about 60 percent of the texture has been covered under the global standards (3 min and about 80 percent under Iran common standard (the 8 minute. In the existing situation, in the case of disruption in the connection network and blocking the main paths of accessing the emergency, there is no other appropriate alternative path while in the proposed plan this problem has been resolved somewhat and alternative path or paths are accessible.4- ConclusionYazd historical texture causes an increase in the time of accessing of the citizens inhabitant in the texture to the emergency services in the existing situation due to the organic structure of the street network, while in the case of the disruption in a part of the traffic network, there is no optimum alternative path to be used in the emergency cases; the most important reason of this could be mentioned as not regarding the function hierarchy in the accessing network structure ,the narrow width of the paths and non-applicability of most of the texture paths for the traffic of vehicles, the one way paths and etc. The comprehensive protective plan of Yazd historical

  10. Global assessment of cancer incidence and survival in adolescents and young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleyer, Archie; Ferrari, Andrea; Whelan, Jeremy; Barr, Ronald D

    2017-02-28

    In high-income countries, cancer remains the commonest cause of disease-related death in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) despite survival improvements. With more than 1,000,000 new diagnoses of cancer in AYAs annually worldwide, and their number of life-years affected by cancer being greatest of all ages, the global burden of cancer in AYAs exceeds that in all other ages. In low- and middle-income countries, where the great majority of the world's 3 billion AYAs reside, the needs of those with cancer have been identified and demand attention. Unique to the age group but universal, the psychosocial challenges they face are the utmost across life's spectrum. This lead-off article of a new series in Pediatric Blood and Cancer on AYA oncology attempts to assess the global status of this emerging discipline. The review includes the changing incidence and survival of the common cancers in AYAs-there is no other age group with a similar array of malignancies-and the specific challenges to quality and quantity of life that compromise their lives.

  11. How accessible are coral reefs to people? A global assessment based on travel time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maire, Eva; Cinner, Joshua; Velez, Laure; Huchery, Cindy; Mora, Camilo; Dagata, Stephanie; Vigliola, Laurent; Wantiez, Laurent; Kulbicki, Michel; Mouillot, David

    2016-04-01

    The depletion of natural resources has become a major issue in many parts of the world, with the most accessible resources being most at risk. In the terrestrial realm, resource depletion has classically been related to accessibility through road networks. In contrast, in the marine realm, the impact on living resources is often framed into the Malthusian theory of human density around ecosystems. Here, we develop a new framework to estimate the accessibility of global coral reefs using potential travel time from the nearest human settlement or market. We show that 58% of coral reefs are located travel time from the market is a strong predictor of fish biomass on coral reefs. We also highlight a relative deficit of protection on coral reef areas near people, with disproportional protection on reefs far from people. This suggests that conservation efforts are targeting low-conflict reefs or places that may already be receiving de facto protection due to their isolation. Our global assessment of accessibility in the marine realm is a critical step to better understand the interplay between humans and resources.

  12. Connectivity, neutral theories and the assessment of species vulnerability to global change in temperate estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chust, Guillem; Albaina, Aitor; Aranburu, Aizkorri; Borja, Ángel; Diekmann, Onno E.; Estonba, Andone; Franco, Javier; Garmendia, Joxe M.; Iriondo, Mikel; Muxika, Iñigo; Rendo, Fernando; Rodríguez, J. Germán; Ruiz-Larrañaga, Otsanda; Serrão, Ester A.; Valle, Mireia

    2013-10-01

    One of the main adaptation strategies to global change scenarios, aiming to preserve ecosystem functioning and biodiversity, is to maximize ecosystem resilience. The resilience of a species metapopulation can be improved by facilitating connectivity between local populations, which will prevent demographic stochasticity and inbreeding. This investigation estimated the degree of connectivity among estuarine species along the north-eastern Iberian coast, in order to assess community vulnerability to global change scenarios. To address this objective, two connectivity proxy types have been used based upon genetic and ecological drift processes: 1) DNA markers for the bivalve cockle (Cerastoderma edule) and seagrass Zostera noltei, and 2) the decrease in the number of species shared between two sites with geographic distance. Neutral biodiversity theory predicts that dispersal limitation modulates this decrease, and this has been explored in estuarine plants and macroinvertebrates. Results indicate dispersal limitation for both saltmarsh plants and seagrass beds community and Z. noltei populations; this suggests they are especially vulnerable to expected climate changes on their habitats. In contrast, unstructured spatial pattern found in macroinvertebrate communities and in C. edule genetic populations in the area suggests that estuarine soft-bottom macroinvertebrates with planktonic larval dispersal strategies may have a high resilience capacity to moderate changes within their habitats. Our findings allow environmental managers to prioritize the most vulnerable species and habitats to be restored.

  13. An Assessment of the Scientific Basis Behind Global Environmental Concerns in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Hanwant B.; Hipskind, R. Stephen (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The notion that human activities may endanger the earth's environment has emerged as a leading societal concern in the post industrial era. Under the ever increasing pressures of population growth and industrialization, the problems of local air pollution have now become matters of both local and global concern. Smog, toxic chemicals, acid rain, ozone depletion, and climate change have become household words and an intense public policy debate about the cost and benefits of environmental protection continues. There is a growing realization that the consequences of air pollution can be felt in unpredictable ways in near and far away places. Unpopulated regions of the world such as the arctic now suffer from arctic haze and ozone depletions are the largest in the Antarctic stratosphere. In the last4ol three decades many countries have instituted ambient air quality standards designed to mitigate problems of health and welfare associated with the release of chemicals. Global agreements to prevent the depletion of ozone layer and to slow down climatic warming are being actively debated and formulated. In parallel there has been an intense exploration of the science of air pollution all over the world. The scientific basis behind environmental concerns is imperfect and is central to this debate. I will review our current scientific understanding of some of the major environmental concerns. An assessment of the forthcoming efforts to put this science on a more solid footing will be provided.

  14. Global and Seasonal Assessments of Magnetosphere / Ionosphere Coupling via Lightning-Induced Electron Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Austin; Marshall, Robert; Close, Sigrid

    2016-07-01

    Pitch-angle scattering by radio waves in the VLF (~3-30kHz) band is thought to be a major loss mechanism for energetic radiation-belt electrons. Resonant interactions with Whistler-mode VLF waves can alter the reflection altitude of trapped electrons ~100keV - 1MeV; when a particle reflects at a low enough altitude, it can be removed from the magnetosphere through collisions with ionospheric constituents. Terrestrial lightning provides a natural and constantly-occurring source of VLF waves. Here we present a global assessment of lightning-induced electron precipitation (LEP) due to resonant pitch-angle scattering from whistler-mode waves, which represent a coupling process between the magnetosphere and ionosphere. We combine an end-to-end model of the LEP process with terrestrial lightning activity data from the GLD360 sensor network to construct a realtime geospatial model of LEP-driven energy deposition into the ionosphere. We explore global and seasonal statistics, provide precipitation estimates across a variety of magnetospheric conditions, and compare the total impact to other magnetospheric loss processes. Additionally, we use our model to optimize event selection from the energetic-particle detectors on board the FIREBIRD CubeSats, in order to download data over the satellite's low-bandwidth downlink. Ultimately, FIREBIRD data will be used to validate our model, and to provide one-to-one correlative measurements of lightning strokes and subsequent precipitation.

  15. Uncertainty analysis and global sensitivity analysis of techno-economic assessments for biodiesel production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zhang-Chun; Zhenzhou, Lu; Zhiwen, Liu; Ningcong, Xiao

    2015-01-01

    There are various uncertain parameters in the techno-economic assessments (TEAs) of biodiesel production, including capital cost, interest rate, feedstock price, maintenance rate, biodiesel conversion efficiency, glycerol price and operating cost. However, fewer studies focus on the influence of these parameters on TEAs. This paper investigated the effects of these parameters on the life cycle cost (LCC) and the unit cost (UC) in the TEAs of biodiesel production. The results show that LCC and UC exhibit variations when involving uncertain parameters. Based on the uncertainty analysis, three global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods are utilized to quantify the contribution of an individual uncertain parameter to LCC and UC. The GSA results reveal that the feedstock price and the interest rate produce considerable effects on the TEAs. These results can provide a useful guide for entrepreneurs when they plan plants.

  16. Holographic Assessment of Lymphoma Tissue (HALT) for Global Oncology Field Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathania, Divya; Im, Hyungsoon; Kilcoyne, Aoife; Sohani, Aliyah R; Fexon, Lioubov; Pivovarov, Misha; Abramson, Jeremy S; Randall, Thomas C; Chabner, Bruce A; Weissleder, Ralph; Lee, Hakho; Castro, Cesar M

    2016-01-01

    Low-cost, rapid and accurate detection technologies are key requisites to cope with the growing global cancer challenges. The need is particularly pronounced in resource-limited settings where treatment opportunities are often missed due to the absence of timely diagnoses. We herein describe a Holographic Assessment of Lymphoma Tissue (HALT) system that adopts a smartphone as the basis for molecular cancer diagnostics. The system detects malignant lymphoma cells labeled with marker-specific microbeads that produce unique holographic signatures. Importantly, we optimized HALT to detect lymphomas in fine-needle aspirates from superficial lymph nodes, procedures that align with the minimally invasive biopsy needs of resource-constrained regions. We equipped the platform to directly address the practical needs of employing novel technologies for "real world" use. The HALT assay generated readouts in <1.5 h and demonstrated good agreement with standard cytology and surgical pathology.

  17. An assessment of some non-gray global radiation models in enclosures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meulemans, J.

    2016-01-01

    The accuracy of several non-gray global gas/soot radiation models, namely the Wide-Band Correlated-K (WBCK) model, the Spectral Line Weighted-sum-of-gray-gases model with one optimized gray gas (SLW-1), the (non-gray) Weighted-Sum-of-Gray-Gases (WSGG) model with different sets of coefficients (Smith et al., Soufiani and Djavdan, Taylor and Foster) was assessed on several test cases from the literature. Non-isothermal (or isothermal) participating media containing non-homogeneous (or homogeneous) mixtures of water vapor, carbon dioxide and soot in one-dimensional planar enclosures and multi-dimensional rectangular enclosures were investigated. For all the considered test cases, a benchmark solution (LBL or SNB) was used in order to compute the relative error of each model on the predicted radiative source term and the wall net radiative heat flux.

  18. Global assessment of Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP and Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS version 3 products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Marshall

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Earth observation based long-term global vegetation index products are used by scientists from a wide range of disciplines concerned with global change. Inter-comparison studies are commonly performed to keep the user community informed on the consistency and accuracy of such records as they evolve. In this study, we compared two new records: (1 Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Version 3 (NDVI3g and (2 Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP Version 3 NDVI (NDVI3v and Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI3v. We evaluated the two records via three experiments that addressed the primary use of such records in global change research: (1 prediction of the Leaf Area Index (LAI used in light-use efficiency modeling, (2 estimation of vegetation climatology in Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer models, and (3 trend analysis of the magnitude and phenology of vegetation productivity. Experiment one, unlike previous inter-comparison studies, was performed with a unique Landsat 30 m spatial resolution and in situ LAI database for major crop types on five continents. Overall, the two records showed a high level of agreement both in direction and magnitude on a monthly basis, though VIP values were higher and more variable and showed lower correlations and higher error with in situ LAI. The records were most consistent at northern latitudes during the primary growing season and southern latitudes and the tropics throughout much of the year, while the records were less consistent at northern latitudes during green-up and senescence and in the great deserts of the world throughout much of the year. The two records were also highly consistent in terms of trend direction/magnitude, showing a 30+ year increase (decrease in NDVI over much of the globe (tropical rainforests. The two records were less consistent in terms of timing due to the poor correlation of the records during start and end of growing season.

  19. Ontology development for provenance tracing in National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, X.; Zheng, J. G.; Goldstein, J.; Duggan, B.; Xu, J.; Du, C.; Akkiraju, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Fox, P. A.

    2013-12-01

    The periodical National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) [1] produces reports about findings of global climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States. Those findings are of great public and academic concerns and are used in policy and management decisions, which make the provenance information of findings in those reports especially important. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS), in which the NCA reports and associated provenance information are the primary records. We were modeling and developing Semantic Web applications for the GCIS. By applying a use case-driven iterative methodology [2], we developed an ontology [3] to represent the content structure of a report and the associated provenance information. We also mapped the classes and properties in our ontology into the W3C PROV-O ontology [4] to realize the formal presentation of provenance. We successfully implemented the ontology in several pilot systems for a recent National Climate Assessment report (i.e., the NCA3). They provide users the functionalities to browse and search provenance information with topics of interest. Provenance information of the NCA3 has been made structured and interoperable by applying the developed ontology. Besides the pilot systems we developed, other tools and services are also able to interact with the data in the context of the 'Web of data' and thus create added values. Our research shows that the use case-driven iterative method bridges the gap between Semantic Web researchers and earth and environmental scientists and is able to be deployed rapidly for developing Semantic Web applications. Our work also provides first-hand experience for re-using the W3C PROV-O ontology in the field of earth and environmental sciences, as the PROV-O ontology is recently ratified (on 04/30/2013) by the W3C as a recommendation and relevant applications are still rare. [1] http

  20. Global Assessment of Methane Gas Hydrates: Outreach for the public and policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoin, Yannick

    2010-05-01

    The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), via its official collaborating center in Norway, GRID-Arendal, is in the process of implementing a Global Assessment of Methane Gas Hydrates. Global reservoirs of methane gas have long been the topic of scientific discussion both in the realm of environmental issues such as natural forces of climate change and as a potential energy resource for economic development. Of particular interest are the volumes of methane locked away in frozen molecules known as clathrates or hydrates. Our rapidly evolving scientific knowledge and technological development related to methane hydrates makes these formations increasingly prospective to economic development. In addition, global demand for energy continues, and will continue to outpace supply for the foreseeable future, resulting in pressure to expand development activities, with associated concerns about environmental and social impacts. Understanding the intricate links between methane hydrates and 1) natural and anthropogenic contributions to climate change, 2) their role in the carbon cycle (e.g. ocean chemistry) and 3) the environmental and socio-economic impacts of extraction, are key factors in making good decisions that promote sustainable development. As policy makers, environmental organizations and private sector interests seek to forward their respective agendas which tend to be weighted towards applied research, there is a clear and imminent need for a an authoritative source of accessible information on various topics related to methane gas hydrates. The 2008 United Nations Environment Programme Annual Report highlighted methane from the Arctic as an emerging challenge with respect to climate change and other environmental issues. Building upon this foundation, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, in conjunction with experts from national hydrates research groups from Canada, the US, Japan, Germany, Norway, India and Korea, aims to provide a multi-thematic overview of the key

  1. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-12-01

    We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

  2. Assessing fluvial ecosystem fragmentation at the global scale using high resolution hydrographic and hydrological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grill, G. O.; Lehner, B.

    2012-12-01

    The ongoing fragmentation of the world's large rivers through hydropower and irrigation dams has been an issue of concern for ecologists and conservationists for many decades. The main negative effects of dams result from their role as a barrier for migratory fish species as well as from the alteration of the natural flow regime as a result of unnatural water release schedules. On the other hand, dam construction has recently received new interest as an alternative and renewable source of energy especially in developing countries and as a means to provide water security in regions with naturally variable water flows. The trade-offs between these antagonistic effects are usually assessed locally by conducting environmental impact assessments at and in the vicinity of the construction site, but the effects at larger scales are generally neglected in such plans. These large scale effects include potential flow alterations for hundreds of kilometers downstream of the dam, and barrier effects for migratory species traveling long distances along the mainstem of large rivers. Furthermore, the effects of multiple dams located in the same basin, are often neglected. To address the cumulative effects of dams at the river and network scale, we developed a new dam impact assessment model by combining state-of-the-art global scale hydrographic (HydroSHEDS) and hydrological datasets (WaterGAP) with a river routing model (HydroROUT). We assessed the relative impact of individual and multiple dams regarding flow alteration and habitat fragmentation. In addition to a purely accessibility-driven fragmentation index, we implemented a set of indicators that include eco-hydrological classification schemes as well as species richness and diversity information. The model allows to include tailor-made weighting schemes to adjust dam impact assessment for more local conditions. Although our model is applicable worldwide at a high resolution (500m), we tested the indicator set in the Mekong

  3. Nutritional status of patients treated with radiotherapy as determined by subjective global assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koom, Woong Sub; Keum, Ki Chang [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ahn, Seung Do [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); and others

    2012-09-15

    The purpose of this prospective multi-institutional study was to evaluate the nutritional status of patients undergoing radiotherapy (RT) for treatment of head and neck, lung, or gastrointestinal cancer. A total of 1,000 patients were enrolled in this study at seven different hospitals in Seoul, Korea between October 2009 and May 2010. The nutritional status of patients after receiving 3 weeks of RT was evaluated using subjective global assessment (SGA). The nutritional status of each patient was rated as well nourished (A), moderately malnourished (B), or severely malnourished (C). The mean age of patients in this study was 59.4 {+-} 11.9 years, and the male to female ratio was 7:3. According to the SGA results, 60.8%, 34.5%, and 4.7% of patients were classified as A, B, or C, respectively. The following criteria were significantly associated with malnutrition (SGA B or C; p < 0.001): loss of subcutaneous fat or muscle wasting (odds ratio [OR], 11.473); increased metabolic demand/stress (OR, 8.688); ankle, sacral edema, or ascites (OR, 3.234); and weight loss 5% (OR, 2.299). SGA was applied successfully to assess the nutritional status of most patients. The prevalence of malnutrition in a radiation oncology department was 39.2%. The results of this study serve as a basis for implementation of nutrition intervention to patients being treated at radiation oncology departments.

  4. ADVANCED ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE: AN ANALYSIS USING THE GLOBAL CHANGE ASSESSMENT MODEL (GCAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, J. A.; Wise, M. A.; MacCracken, C. N.

    1994-05-01

    We report results from a "top down" energy-economy model employing "bottom up" assumptions embedded in an integrated assessment framework, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The analys~s shows that from the perspective of long-term energy system development, differences. in results from the "top down" and "bottom up" research communities would appear to be more closely linked to differences in assumptions regarding the economic cost associated with advanced technologies than to differences In modeling approach. The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the m~ddleo f the eighteenth century. While all energy technologies play roles in reducing future fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a particularly important role. If biomass energy can be made available at $2.40/GJ or less in quantities sufficient to make it the core energy supply technology in the middle of the next century, then emissions can be cut dramatically relative to the reference case. The problem of emiss~ons reduction becomes one of technology development and deployment in this case, and not one of fiscal and regulatory intervention.

  5. Assessment of Global Voltage Stability Margin through Radial Basis Function Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akash Saxena

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic operating conditions along with contingencies often present formidable challenges to the power engineers. Decisions pertaining to the control strategies taken by the system operators at energy management centre are based on the information about the system’s behavior. The application of ANN as a tool for voltage stability assessment is empirical because of its ability to do parallel data processing with high accuracy, fast response, and capability to model dynamic, nonlinear, and noisy data. This paper presents an effective methodology based on Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFN to predict Global Voltage Stability Margin (GVSM, for any unseen loading condition of the system. GVSM is used to assess the overall voltage stability status of the power system. A comparative analysis of different topologies of ANN, namely, Feedforward Backprop (FFBP, Cascade Forward Backprop (CFB, Generalized Regression (GR, Layer Recurrent (LR, Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX, ELMAN Backprop, and Feedforward Distributed Time Delay Network (FFDTDN, is carried out on the basis of capability of the prediction of GVSM. The efficacy of RBFN is better than other networks, which is validated by taking the predictions of GVSM at different levels of Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN in input features. The results obtained from ANNs are validated through the offline Newton Raphson (N-R method. The proposed methodology is tested over IEEE 14-bus, IEEE 30-bus, and IEEE 118-bus test systems.

  6. Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhonghui; Xie, Xinfeng; Yu, Zhen; von Gadow, Klaus; Xu, Junming; Zhao, Shanshan; Yang, Yuchun

    2017-01-01

    Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbio). In this study we calculated the GWPbio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWPbio factors ranged from 0.13–0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWPbio. Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO2 emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWPbio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWPbio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWPbio. PMID:28045111

  7. Robotic surgery training: construct validity of Global Evaluative Assessment of Robotic Skills (GEARS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, Renata; Rodríguez, Omaira; Rosciano, José; Vegas, Liumariel; Bond, Verónica; Rojas, Aram; Sanchez-Ismayel, Alexis

    2016-09-01

    The objective of this study is to determine the ability of the GEARS scale (Global Evaluative Assessment of Robotic Skills) to differentiate individuals with different levels of experience in robotic surgery, as a fundamental validation. This is a cross-sectional study that included three groups of individuals with different levels of experience in robotic surgery (expert, intermediate, novice) their performance were assessed by GEARS applied by two reviewers. The difference between groups was determined by Mann-Whitney test and the consistency between the reviewers was studied by Kendall W coefficient. The agreement between the reviewers of the scale GEARS was 0.96. The score was 29.8 ± 0.4 to experts, 24 ± 2.8 to intermediates and 16 ± 3 to novices, with a statistically significant difference between all of them (p robotic surgery and, therefore, is a validated and useful tool to evaluate surgeons in training.

  8. Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhonghui; Xie, Xinfeng; Yu, Zhen; von Gadow, Klaus; Xu, Junming; Zhao, Shanshan; Yang, Yuchun

    2017-01-01

    Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbio). In this study we calculated the GWPbio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWPbio factors ranged from 0.13–0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWPbio. Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO2 emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWPbio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWPbio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWPbio.

  9. The Key Role of Eyewitnesses in Rapid Impact Assessment of Global Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Etivant, C.; Frobert, L.; Godey, S.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainties in rapid impact assessments of global earthquakes are intrinsically large because they rely on 3 main elements (ground motion prediction models, building stock inventory and related vulnerability) which values and/or spatial variations are poorly constrained. Furthermore, variations of hypocentral location and magnitude within their respective uncertainty domain can lead to significantly different shaking level for centers of population and change the scope of the disaster. We present the strategy and methods implemented at the Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) to rapidly collect in-situ observations on earthquake effects from eyewitnesses for reducing uncertainties of rapid earthquake impact assessment. It comprises crowdsourced information (online questionnaires, pics) as well as information derived from real time analysis of web traffic (flashourcing technique), and more recently deployment of QCN (Quake Catcher Network) low cost sensors. We underline the importance of merging results of different methods to improve performances and reliability of collected data.We try to better understand and respond to public demands and expectations after earthquakes through improved information services and diversification of information tools (social networks, smartphone app., browsers adds-on…), which, in turn, drive more eyewitnesses to our services and improve data collection. We will notably present our LastQuake Twitter feed (Quakebot) and smartphone applications (IOs and android) which only report earthquakes that matter for the public and authorities, i.e. felt and damaging earthquakes identified thanks to citizen generated information.

  10. Service Life Assessment of Historical Building Envelopes Constructed Using Different Types of Sandstone: A Computational Analysis Based on Experimental Input Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kočí, Václav; Maděra, Jiří; Fořt, Jan; Žumár, Jaromír; Pavlíková, Milena; Pavlík, Zbyšek; Černý, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Service life assessment of three historical building envelopes constructed using different types of sandstone is presented. At first, experimental measurements of material parameters of sandstones are performed to provide the necessary input data for a subsequent computational analysis. In the second step, the moisture and temperature fields across the studied envelopes are calculated for a representative period of time. The computations are performed using dynamic climatic data as the boundary conditions on the exterior side of building envelope. The climatic data for three characteristic localities are experimentally determined by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute and contain hourly values of temperature, relative humidity, rainfalls, wind velocity and direction, and sun radiation. Using the measured durability properties of the analyzed sandstones and the calculated numbers of freeze/thaw cycles under different climatic conditions, the service life of the investigated building envelopes is assessed. The obtained results show that the climatic conditions can play a very significant role in the service life assessment of historical buildings, even in the conditions of such a small country as the Czech Republic. In addition, the investigations reveal the importance of the material characteristics of sandstones, in particular the hygric properties, on their service life in a structure. PMID:25114972

  11. Service Life Assessment of Historical Building Envelopes Constructed Using Different Types of Sandstone: A Computational Analysis Based on Experimental Input Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Kočí

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Service life assessment of three historical building envelopes constructed using different types of sandstone is presented. At first, experimental measurements of material parameters of sandstones are performed to provide the necessary input data for a subsequent computational analysis. In the second step, the moisture and temperature fields across the studied envelopes are calculated for a representative period of time. The computations are performed using dynamic climatic data as the boundary conditions on the exterior side of building envelope. The climatic data for three characteristic localities are experimentally determined by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute and contain hourly values of temperature, relative humidity, rainfalls, wind velocity and direction, and sun radiation. Using the measured durability properties of the analyzed sandstones and the calculated numbers of freeze/thaw cycles under different climatic conditions, the service life of the investigated building envelopes is assessed. The obtained results show that the climatic conditions can play a very significant role in the service life assessment of historical buildings, even in the conditions of such a small country as the Czech Republic. In addition, the investigations reveal the importance of the material characteristics of sandstones, in particular the hygric properties, on their service life in a structure.

  12. USGS National and Global Oil and Gas Assessment Project-Permian Basin Province, Midland Basin, Wolfcamp Shale Assessment Units

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Assessment Unit is the fundamental unit used in the National Assessment Project for the assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources. The Assessment Unit is...

  13. USGS National and Global Oil and Gas Assessment Project-Permian Basin Province, Val Verde Basin, Canyon Sandstones Assessment Units

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Assessment Unit is the fundamental unit used in the National Assessment Project for the assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources. The Assessment Unit is...

  14. Assessing the evolution of oases in arid regions by reconstructing their historic spatio-temporal distribution: a case study of the Heihe River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yaowen; Wang, Guisheng; Wang, Xueqiang; Fan, Peilei

    2016-11-01

    Oasis evolution, one of the most obvious surface processes in arid regions, affects various aspects of the regional environment, such as hydrological processes, ecological conditions, and microclimates. In this paper, the historical spatio-temporal evolution of the cultivated oases in the Heihe River Basin, the second largest inland watershed in the northwest of China, was assessed using multidisciplinary methods and data from multiple sources, including historical literature, ancient sites, maps and remotely sensed images. The findings show that cultivated oases were first developed on a large scale during the Han Dynasty (121 BC-220) and then gradually decreased in extent from the Six Dynasties period (220-581) to the Sui-Tang period (581-907), reaching a minimum in the Song-Yuan period (960-1368). An abrupt revival occurred during the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) and continued through the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911), and during the period of the Republic of China (1912-1949), oasis development reached its greatest peak of the entire historical period. The oasis areas during seven major historical periods, i.e., Han, Six Dynasties, Sui-Tang, Song-Yuan, Ming, Qing, and Republic of China, are estimated to have been 1703 km2, 1115 km2, 629 km2, 614 km2, 964 km2, 1205 km2, and 1917 km2, respectively. The spatial distribution generally exhibited a continuous sprawl process, with the center of the oases moving gradually from the downstream region to the middle and even upstream regions. The oases along the main river remained stable during most periods, whereas those close to the terminal reaches were subject to frequent variations and even abandonment. Socio-economic factors were the main forces driving the evolution of cultivated oases in the area; among them, political and societal stability, national defense, agricultural policy, population, and technological progress were the most important.

  15. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an EMIC intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.;

    2012-01-01

    and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land-use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures......Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE...

  16. Assessment of Speckle-Tracking Echocardiography-Derived Global Deformation Parameters During Supine Exercise in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Michael Y; Tacy, Theresa; Chin, Clifford; Obayashi, Derek Y; Punn, Rajesh

    2016-03-01

    Exercise echocardiography is an underutilized tool in pediatrics with current applications including detecting segmental wall abnormalities, assessing the utility of global ventricular function, and measuring pulmonary hemodynamics. No prior study has applied speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) during exercise echocardiography in children. The aim of this study was to determine the feasibility of measuring speckle-tracking-derived peak systolic velocities, global longitudinal and circumferential strain, and global strain rates at various phases of exercise. Ninety-seven healthy children underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing using supine cycle ergometry. The exercise stress test consisted of baseline pulmonary function testing, monitoring of blood pressure and heart rate responses, electrocardiographic recordings, and oxygen saturations while subjects pedaled against a ramp protocol based on body weight. Echocardiographic measurements and specifically speckle-tracking analysis were performed during exercise at baseline, at a heart rate of 160 beats per minute and at 10 min after exercise. Peak systolic velocity, peak systolic strain, and peak systolic strain rate at these three phases were compared in the subjects in which all measurements were accurately obtained. We were able to complete peak velocity, strain, and strain rate measurements in all three exercise phases for 36 out of the 97 subjects tested. There was no significant difference between the feasibility of measuring circumferential versus longitudinal strain (p = 0.25, B-corrected = 0.75). In the 36 subjects studied, the magnitude of circumferential strain values decreased from -18.3 ± 4.8 to -13.7 ± 4.0 % from baseline to HR 160 (p exercise. We studied the effects of frame rate on deformation measurements and we observed no difference between measurements taken at lower (exercising pediatric subjects with STE. The majority of subjects that were excluded from the study had inadequate

  17. Historical evolution and chinese definition of global health%全球健康的历史演变及中文定义

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    苏小游; 梁晓晖; 毛宗福; 孙集宽; 江宇; 刘远立; 任明辉

    2015-01-01

    Under the background of globalization,public health issues are becoming more and more complicated.In the international arena,global health has gradually replaced international health and “global public health” as one of the dominant terms in the field of public health.However,until now,there is no unified understanding and definition for the concept of global health domestically and internationally.In this article,various foreign experts'views and domestic experts' opinions about the concept of global health are collected and solicited,in order to generalize appropriate Chinese definition of global health of China.%在全球化背景下,公共卫生的问题变得日趋复杂.在国际上,全球健康开始逐步取代国际卫生和全球公共卫生,并成为公共卫生领域占主导地位的术语.本文借鉴国际上对于“全球健康”定义的研究成果,结合中国全球健康实践及多学科、多部门专家看法,总结了全球健康的中文定义,希望以此推动、促进中国全球健康事业的发展.

  18. Disaster resilience assessment and the global agenda: A journey from India to South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanchiotti, Margherita; Torres, Jair; Burton, Christopher; Makarigakis, Alexandros

    2016-04-01

    Governments and stakeholders worldwide are placing great emphasis on fostering the resilience of communities to natural hazards and disasters. This is partially because communities that can increase their resilience are in a better position to withstand the adverse effects of damaging hazard events when they occur. With disaster risk reduction having emerged as a global challenge, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 has recognised the need to invest in enhancing disaster resilience as a priority on the international agenda. In order to successfully build community resilience to natural hazards, it then becomes essential to first understand, identify and assess all sets of conditions that contribute to resilience. The ability to measure resilience is increasingly being identified as a key step towards disaster risk reduction as a result. Relatively few studies, however, have been conducted to develop guidelines for measuring the concept, and more research is needed to develop effective tools for assessment of resilience in developing countries. This is because various environmental, built-environment, and social factors will operate and interact differentially across disaster and development contexts. This paper presents preliminary findings from two large projects in which the authors have been involved, namely the 'Enhancing Natural HAzards resilience iN South America' (ENHANS) and 'Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation' (DECCMA) projects. In collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model (GEM), the Understanding and Managing Extremes (UME) School of the Institute for Advanced Study (IUSS) of Pavia and the University of Southampton, UNESCO is working on the development of methods for disaster resilience measurement in developing nations. The studies build on the available literature to provide an ad-hoc conceptual framework for the quantification of community resilience in each study site by means of a bottom

  19. Clinical application of subjective global assessment in Chinese patients with gastrointestinal cancer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bei-Wen Wu; Tao Yin; Wei-Xin Cao; Zhi-Dong Gu; Xiao-Jin Wang; Min Yan; Bing-Ya Liu

    2009-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the role of subjective global assessment (SGA) in nutritional assessment and outcome prediction of Chinese patients with gastrointestinal cancer. METHODS: A total of 751 patients diagnosed with gastrointestinal cancer between August 2004 and August 2006 were enrolled in this study. Within 72 h after admission, SGA, anthropometric parameters, and laboratory tests were used to assess the nutritional status of each patient. The outcome variables including hospital stay, complications, and in-hospital medical expenditure were also obtained. RESULTS: Based on the results of SGA, 389 (51.8%), 332 (44.2%), and 30 (4.0%) patients were classified into well nourished group (SGA-A), mildly to moderately malnourished group (SGA-B), and severely malnourished group (SGA-C), respectively. The prevalence of malnutrition classified by SGA, triceps skinfold thickness (TSF), mid-upper arm muscle circumference (MAMC), albumin (ALB), prealbumin (PA), and body mass index (BMI) was 48.2%, 39.4%, 37.7%, 31.3%, 21.7%, and 9.6%, respectively. In addition, ANOVA tests revealed significant differences in body mass index (BMI), TSF, PA, and ALB of patients in different SGA groups. The more severely malnourished the patient was, the lower the levels of BMI, TSF, PA, and ALB were ( P < 0.05). c2 tests showed a significant difference in SGA classification between patients receiving different types of treatment (surgery vs chemotherapy/radiotherapy). As the nutritional status classified by SGA deteriorated, the patients stayed longer in hospital and their medical expenditures increased significantly. Furthermore, multiple regression analysis showed that SGA and serum ALB could help predict the medical expenditures and hospital stay of patients undergoing surgery. The occurrence of complications increased in parallel with the increasing grade of SGA, and was the highest in the SGA-C group (23.3%) and the lowest in the SGA-A group (16.8%). CONCLUSION: SGA is a reliable

  20. Assessing the impacts of changes in treatment technology on energy and greenhouse gas balances for organic waste and wastewater treatment using historical data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jens Aage; Poulsen, Tjalfe

    2009-01-01

    that the organic waste quantity and composition is the same in 1970 and 2005, the technology change over this time period has resulted in a progression from a net annual GHG emission of 200 kg CO2-eq. capita ĝ€"1 in 1970 to a net saving of 170 kg CO 2-eq. capitaĝ€"1 in 2005 for management of urban organic wastes.......Historical data on organic waste and wastewater treatment during the period of 1970ĝ€"2020 were used to assess the impact of treatment on energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances. The assessment included the waste fractions: Sewage sludge, food waste, yard waste and other organic waste (paper...... production from the remaining organic municipal waste. Wastewater treatment has changed from direct discharge of untreated wastewater to full organic matter and nutrient (N, P) removal combined with anaerobic digestion of the sludge for biogas production with power and heat generation. These changes...

  1. CropWatch agroclimatic indicators (CWAIs) for weather impact assessment on global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gommes, René; Wu, Bingfang; Zhang, Ning; Feng, Xueliang; Zeng, Hongwei; Li, Zhongyuan; Chen, Bo

    2017-02-01

    CropWatch agroclimatic indicators (CWAIs) are a monitoring tool developed by the CropWatch global crop monitoring system in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS; http://www.cropwatch.com.cn, Wu et al Int J Digital Earth 7(2):113-137, 2014, Wu et al Remote Sens 7:3907-3933, 2015). Contrary to most other environmental and agroclimatic indicators, they are "agronomic value-added", i.e. they are spatial values averaged over agricultural areas only and they include a weighting that enhances the contribution of the areas with the largest production potential. CWAIs can be computed for any time interval (starting from dekads) and yield one synthetic value per variable over a specific area and time interval, for instance a national annual value. Therefore, they are very compatible with socio-economic and other variables that are usually reported at regular time intervals over administrative units, such as national environmental or agricultural statistics. Two of the CWAIs are satellite-based (RAIN and Photosynthetically Active radiation, PAR) while the third is ground based (TEMP, air temperature); capitals are used when specifically referring to CWAIs rather than the climate variables in general. The paper first provides an overview of some common agroclimatic indicators, describing their procedural, systemic and normative features in subsequent sections, following the terminology of Binder et al Environ Impact Assess Rev 30:71-81 (2010). The discussion focuses on the systemic and normative aspects: the CWAIs are assessed in terms of their coherent description of the agroclimatic crop environment, at different spatial scales (systemic). The final section shows that the CWAIs retain key statistical properties of the underlying climate variables and that they can be compared to a reference value and used as monitoring and early warning variables (normative).

  2. CropWatch agroclimatic indicators (CWAIs) for weather impact assessment on global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gommes, René; Wu, Bingfang; Zhang, Ning; Feng, Xueliang; Zeng, Hongwei; Li, Zhongyuan; Chen, Bo

    2016-07-01

    CropWatch agroclimatic indicators (CWAIs) are a monitoring tool developed by the CropWatch global crop monitoring system in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS; www.cropwatch.com.cn, Wu et al Int J Digital Earth 7(2):113-137, 2014, Wu et al Remote Sens 7:3907-3933, 2015). Contrary to most other environmental and agroclimatic indicators, they are "agronomic value-added", i.e. they are spatial values averaged over agricultural areas only and they include a weighting that enhances the contribution of the areas with the largest production potential. CWAIs can be computed for any time interval (starting from dekads) and yield one synthetic value per variable over a specific area and time interval, for instance a national annual value. Therefore, they are very compatible with socio-economic and other variables that are usually reported at regular time intervals over administrative units, such as national environmental or agricultural statistics. Two of the CWAIs are satellite-based (RAIN and Photosynthetically Active radiation, PAR) while the third is ground based (TEMP, air temperature); capitals are used when specifically referring to CWAIs rather than the climate variables in general. The paper first provides an overview of some common agroclimatic indicators, describing their procedural, systemic and normative features in subsequent sections, following the terminology of Binder et al Environ Impact Assess Rev 30:71-81 (2010). The discussion focuses on the systemic and normative aspects: the CWAIs are assessed in terms of their coherent description of the agroclimatic crop environment, at different spatial scales (systemic). The final section shows that the CWAIs retain key statistical properties of the underlying climate variables and that they can be compared to a reference value and used as monitoring and early warning variables (normative).

  3. U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Historical record and sources for waves – Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, Paula K.; Weaver, Craig S.

    2015-01-01

    The first U.S. Tsunami Hazard Assessment (Dunbar and Weaver, 2008) was prepared at the request of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). The NTHMP is a partnership formed between federal and state agencies to reduce the impact of tsunamis through hazard assessment, warning guidance, and mitigation. The assessment was conducted in response to a 2005 joint report by the Sub-Committee on Disaster Reduction and the U.S. Group on Earth Observations entitled Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action. The first specific action called for in the Framework was to “develop standardized and coordinated tsunami hazard and risk assessments for all coastal regions of the United States and its territories.” Since the first assessment, there have been a number of very significant tsunamis, including the 2009 Samoa, 2010 Chile, and 2011 Japan tsunamis. As a result, the NTHMP requested an update of the U.S. tsunami hazard assessment.

  4. Which part of a short, global risk assessment, the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community, predicts adverse healthcare outcomes?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O’Caoimh, Rónán

    2015-01-01

    The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC) is a short, global risk assessment to identify community-dwelling older adults’ one-year risk of institutionalisation, hospitalisation, and death. We investigated the contribution that the three components of the RISC (\

  5. Mapping Priorities to Focus Cropland Mapping Activities: Fitness Assessment of Existing Global, Regional and National Cropland Maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Waldner

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Timely and accurate information on the global cropland extent is critical for applications in the fields of food security, agricultural monitoring, water management, land-use change modeling and Earth system modeling. On the one hand, it gives detailed location information on where to analyze satellite image time series to assess crop condition. On the other hand, it isolates the agriculture component to focus food security monitoring on agriculture and to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural lands. The cropland class is often poorly captured in global land cover products due to its dynamic nature and the large variety of agro-systems. The overall objective was to evaluate the current availability of cropland datasets in order to propose a strategic planning and effort distribution for future cropland mapping activities and, therefore, to maximize their impact. Following a very comprehensive identification and collection of national to global land cover maps, a multi-criteria analysis was designed at the country level to identify the priority areas for cropland mapping. As a result, the analysis highlighted priority regions, such as Western Africa, Ethiopia, Madagascar and Southeast Asia, for the remote sensing community to focus its efforts. A Unified Cropland Layer at 250 m for the year 2014 was produced combining the fittest products. It was assessed using global validation datasets and yields an overall accuracy ranging from 82%–94%. Masking cropland areas with a global forest map reduced the commission errors from 46% down to 26%. Compared to the GLC-Share and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis-International Food Policy Research Institute (IIASA-IFPRI cropland maps, significant spatial disagreements were found, which might be attributed to discrepancies in the cropland definition. This advocates for a shared definition of cropland, as well as global validation datasets relevant for the

  6. Comparison global sensitivity analysis techniques and importance measures in probabilistic safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borgonovo, E.; Apostalakis, G. E.; Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.

    2001-07-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) computes the risk of complex technological systems. The core damage frequency (CDF) and the large early release frequency (LERF) are usually the risk metrics of interest in nuclear power plants (NPP). Epistemic uncertainty affects the use of PSA model results. In fact, because of the lack of knowledge in the parameters values, the risk metrics become uncertain and described by epistemic distributions (Apostokalis, 1995). In this paper, we discuss the use of Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) techniques for the determination of the parameters that contribute to the uncertainty in R and most. This information cannot be gained through the use of traditional importance measures (IMs), since: (1) IMs are defined for components and basic events and not for parameters, (2) IMs assume the parameters at their nominal values, and are therefore Local Methods. In Section 2 we discuss that, because of epistemic uncertainty, GSA must be performed through the PSA model parameters, and not at the basic event level. in Section 3 we present the definition of the PSA IMs and GSA techniques used in this work. In Section 4 we present the approach to compare PSA IMs results to GSA results, to understand whether uncertainty drivers are also important risk contributors. Results will be discussed for the application of these techniques and the proposed approach to the PSA large loss of coolant accident (LOCA) sequence of a research reactor. (Author) 7 refs.

  7. Global Clustering Quality Coefficient Assessing the Efficiency of PCA Class Assignment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela Praisler

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An essential factor influencing the efficiency of the predictive models built with principal component analysis (PCA is the quality of the data clustering revealed by the score plots. The sensitivity and selectivity of the class assignment are strongly influenced by the relative position of the clusters and by their dispersion. We are proposing a set of indicators inspired from analytical geometry that may be used for an objective quantitative assessment of the data clustering quality as well as a global clustering quality coefficient (GCQC that is a measure of the overall predictive power of the PCA models. The use of these indicators for evaluating the efficiency of the PCA class assignment is illustrated by a comparative study performed for the identification of the preprocessing function that is generating the most efficient PCA system screening for amphetamines based on their GC-FTIR spectra. The GCQC ranking of the tested feature weights is explained based on estimated density distributions and validated by using quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA.

  8. A simple integrated assessment approach to global change simulation and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, Keroboto; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    We formulate and study the Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model, which constitutes the basis of our idealized integrated assessment approach to simulating and evaluating global change. CoCEB is composed of a physical climate module, based on Earth's energy balance, and an economy module that uses endogenous economic growth with physical and human capital accumulation. A biosphere model is likewise under study and will be coupled to the existing two modules. We concentrate on the interactions between the two subsystems: the effect of climate on the economy, via damage functions, and the effect of the economy on climate, via a control of the greenhouse gas emissions. Simple functional forms of the relation between the two subsystems permit simple interpretations of the coupled effects. The CoCEB model is used to make hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement, in particular by investing in low carbon technology, in deforestation reduction or in carbon capture and storage (CCS). The CoCEB model is very flexible and transparent, and it allows one to easily formulate and compare different functional representations of climate change mitigation policies. Using different mitigation measures and their cost estimates, as found in the literature, one is able to compare these measures in a coherent way.

  9. Metabolomic and high-throughput sequencing analysis – modern approach for the assessment of biodeterioration of materials from historic buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beata eGutarowska

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Preservation of cultural heritage is of paramount importance worldwide. Microbial colonization of construction materials, such as wood, brick, mortar and stone in historic buildings can lead to severe deterioration. The aim of the present study was to give modern insight into the phylogenetic diversity and activated metabolic pathways of microbial communities colonized historic objects located in the former Auschwitz II-Birkenau concentration and extermination camp in Oświęcim, Poland. For this purpose we combined molecular, microscopic and chemical methods. Selected specimens were examined using Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM, metabolomic analysis and high-throughput Illumina sequencing. FESEM imaging revealed the presence of complex microbial communities comprising diatoms, fungi and bacteria, mainly cyanobacteria and actinobacteria, on sample surfaces. Microbial diversity of brick specimens appeared higher than that of the wood and was dominated by algae and cyanobacteria, while wood was mainly colonized by fungi. DNA sequences documented the presence of 15 bacterial phyla representing 99 genera including Halomonas, Halorhodospira, Salinisphaera, Salinibacterium, Rubrobacter, Streptomyces, Arthrobacter and 9 fungal classes represented by 113 genera including Cladosporium, Acremonium, Alternaria, Engyodontium, Penicillium, Rhizopus and Aureobasidium. Most of the identified sequences were characteristic of organisms implicated in deterioration of wood and brick. Metabolomic data indicated the activation of numerous metabolic pathways, including those regulating the production of primary and secondary metabolites, for example, metabolites associated with the production of antibiotics, organic acids and deterioration of organic compounds. The study demonstrated that a combination of electron microscopy imaging with metabolomic and genomic techniques allows to link the phylogenetic information and metabolic profiles of

  10. Historical reconstruction of wastewater and land use impacts to groundwater used for public drinking water: exposure assessment using chemical data and GIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swartz, Christopher H; Rudel, Ruthann A; Kachajian, Jennifer R; Brody, Julia G

    2003-09-01

    Land use in geographic areas that replenish groundwater and surface water resources is increasingly recognized as an important factor affecting drinking water quality. Efforts to understand the implications for health, particularly outcomes with long latency or critical exposure windows, have been hampered by lack of historical exposure data for unregulated pollutants. This limitation has hindered studies of the possible links between breast cancer risk and drinking water impacted by endocrine disrupting compounds and mammary carcinogens, for example. This paper describes a methodology to assess potential historical exposure to a broad range of chemicals associated with wastewater and land use impacts to 132 groundwater wells and one surface water body supplying drinking water to 18 public distribution systems on Cape Cod, MA. We calculated annual measures of impact to each distribution system and used the measures as exposure estimates for the residential addresses of control women in the Cape Cod Breast Cancer and Environment Study (Cape Cod Study). Impact was assessed using (1) historical chemical measurements of nitrate at the water supply sources (performed as required by the Safe Water Drinking Act) and (2) a geographic information system analysis of land use within the zones of contribution (ZOCs) delineated for each well in a state-mandated wellhead protection program. The period for which these impact estimates were developed (1972-1995) was constrained by the availability of chemical measurements and land use data and consideration of time required for groundwater transport of contaminants to the water supply wells. Trends in these estimates for Cape Cod suggest increasing impact to drinking water quality for land use over the study period. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect on the distribution of controls' cumulative exposure estimates from (1) reducing the area of the ZOCs to reflect typical well operating conditions rather than

  11. Assessment of Oral Communication: A Major Review of the Historical Development and Trends in the Movement from 1975 to 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morreale, Sherwyn; Backlund, Philip; Hay, Ellen; Moore, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This comprehensive review of the assessment of oral communication in the communication discipline is both descriptive and empirical in nature. First, some background on the topic of communication assessment is provided. Following the descriptive background, we present an empirical analysis of academic papers, research studies, and books about…

  12. Assessment of the consistency among global microwave land surface emissivity products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Norouzi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this work is to inter-compare a number of global land surface emissivity products over various land-cover conditions to assess their consistency. Ultimately, the discrepancies between the studied emissivity products will help interpreting the divergences among numerical weather prediction models in which land emissivity is a key surface boundary parameter. The intercompared retrieved land emissivity products were generated over five-year period (2003–2007 using observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I, The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI and Windsat. First, all products were reprocessed in the same projection and spatial resolution as they were generated from sensors with various configurations. Then, the mean value and standard deviations of monthly emissivity values were calculated for each product to assess the spatial distribution of the consistencies/inconsistencies among the products across the globe. The emissivity values from four products were also compared to soil moisture estimates and satellite-based vegetation index to assess their sensitivities to the changes in land surface conditions. Results show that systematic differences among products exist and variation of emissivities at each product has similar frequency dependency at any land cover type. Monthly means of emissivity values from AMSR-E in the vertical and horizontal polarizations seem to be systematically lower across various land cover condition which may be attributed to the 1.30 a.m./p.m. overpass time of the sensor and possibly a residual skin temperature effect in the product. The standard deviation of the analysed products was the lowest (less than 0.01 in rain forest regions for all products and the highest in northern latitudes, above 0.04 for AMSR-E and SSM/I and around 0.03 for WindSat. Despite differences in absolute

  13. Porphyry copper assessment of East and Southeast Asia: Philippines, Taiwan (Republic of China), Republic of Korea (South Korea), and Japan: Chapter P in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Demarr, Michael W.; Dicken, Connie L.; Ludington, Stephen; Robinson,, Gilpin R.; Zientek, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with member countries of the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) on an assessment of the porphyry copper resources of East and Southeast Asia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The assessment covers the Philippines in Southeast Asia, and the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Taiwan (Province of China), and Japan in East Asia. The Philippines host world class porphyry copper deposits, such as the Tampakan and Atlas deposits. No porphyry copper deposits have been discovered in the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Taiwan (Province of China), or Japan.

  14. Accuracy assessment of the global ionospheric model over the Southern Ocean based on dynamic observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xiaowen; Xu, Huajun; Li, Zishen; Zhang, Tao; Gao, Jinyao; Shen, Zhongyan; Yang, Chunguo; Wu, Ziyin

    2017-02-01

    The global ionospheric model based on the reference stations of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) of the International GNSS Services is presently the most commonly used products of the global ionosphere. It is very important to comprehensively analyze and evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the model for the reasonable use of this kind of ionospheric product. In terms of receiver station deployment, this work is different from the traditional performance evaluation of the global ionosphere model based on observation data of ground-based static reference stations. The preliminary evaluation and analysis of the the global ionospheric model was conducted with the dynamic observation data across different latitudes over the southern oceans. The validation results showed that the accuracy of the global ionospheric model over the southern oceans is about 5 TECu, which deviates from the measured ionospheric TEC by about -0.6 TECu.

  15. Use of Subjective Global Assessment, Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 to evaluate the nutritional status of non-critically ill patients on parenteral nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badia-Tahull, M B; Cobo-Sacristán, S; Leiva-Badosa, E; Miquel-Zurita, M E; Méndez-Cabalerio, N; Jódar-Masanés, R; Llop-Talaverón, J

    2014-02-01

    Objetivo: Evaluar el estado nutricional de pacientes no críticos de cirugía digestiva, en el momento de iniciar la nutrición parenteral, utilizando tres tests de evaluación nutricional. Estudiar la correlación entre los tests y su asociación con los parámetros clínicos y de laboratorio utilizados para el seguimiento de estos pacientes. Métodos: Estudio prospectivo de 4 meses. Se recogen variables antropométricas y clínicas. Los resultados de Subjective Global Assessment, Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment y Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 se comparan mediante test kappa. La relación entre las variables clínicas y de laboratorio con Subjective Global Assessment se estudian con regresión multinominal; y con Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment y Nutritional Risk Screening mediante regresión lineal múltiple. Edad y sexo se introdujeron como variables de ajuste. Resultados: La desnutrición en 45 pacientes estudiados variaba entre el 51% y el 57%. Subjective Global Assessment correlacionaba bien con Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment y el Nutritional Risk Screening (= 0,531 p = 0,000). Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 mostró mejor asociación con variables clínicas y analíticas: peor estado nutricional en este test se asoció con peor comportamiento de albúmina (B = -0,087; CI = -0,169/-0,005]); prealbumina (B = -0,005; CI = [-0,011/ 0,001]), proteína C reactiva (B = 0,006;CI = [0,001/0,011]) y leucocitos (B = 0,134; CI = [0,031/0,237]) al final de la nutrición parenteral. Discusión: La mitad de los pacientes de cirugía digestiva presentan algún grado de desnutrición en el momento de iniciar la nutrición parenteral. El Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 se mostró como el test con mayor relación con las variables utilizadas en el seguimiento clínico de los pacientes con nutrición parenteral.

  16. Managing Identifiers for Elements of Provenance of the Third National Climate Assessment in the Global Change Information System (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, C.; Aulenbach, S.; Duggan, B.; Goldstein, J.

    2013-12-01

    A Federal Advisory Committee (The "National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee" or NCADAC) has overseen the development of a draft climate report that after extensive review will be considered by the Federal Government in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA). This comprehensive report (1) Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; (2) Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and (3) Analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The U.S. Global Change Program (USGCRP), composed of the 13 federal agencies most concerned with global change, is building a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will ultimately organize access to all of the research, data, and information about global change from across the system. A prototype of the system has been constructed that captures and presents all of the elements of provenance of the NCA through a coherent data model and friendly front end web site. This work will focus on the globally unique and persistent identifiers used to reference and organize those items. These include externally referenced items, such as DOIs used by scientific journal publishers for research articles or by agencies as dataset identifiers, as well as our own internal approach to identifiers, our overall data model and experiences managing persistent identifiers within the GCIS.

  17. Assessment and assortment: how fishes use local and global cues to choose which school to go to.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Ashley J W; Hart, Paul J B; Krause, Jens

    2004-08-01

    Animals that live in groups are known preferentially to associate with phenotypically similar individuals. Despite this, groups of mixed phenotypic composition are the norm rather than the exception in several systems in the wild and this, combined with the large sizes of some animal groups, makes accurate global assessment by a choosing individual more difficult. In this study, we investigated the role of local and global information in mediating shoal-choice decisions in three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) by manipulating the positions and phenotypes of stimulus fish in relation to a focal fish. Focal fish were able to assess globally mixed shoals composed of individuals of different body-length classes, preferring to associate with shoals where the majority phenotype matched their own. When local cues were manipulated this preference disappeared, although overall shoal composition remaining constant. Finally, if both stimulus shoals had the same overall composition but differed in their local cues, then the focus fish chose according to which local fish was of matching body length. These findings indicate that both local and global information play an important role in mediating assessment and shoal choice in fishes.

  18. Pu`ukohola Heiau National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project - Field Plots, Observation and Accuracy Assessment Points

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This metadata is for the 2008 vegetation (classification) field plots (spatial database) and 2010 accuracy assessment points (spatial database) created from the...

  19. The Joint Experiment for Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) Initiative: Developing methods and best practices for global agricultural monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champagne, C.; Jarvis, I.; Defourny, P.; Davidson, A.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural systems differ significantly throughout the world, making a 'one size fits all' approach to remote sensing and monitoring of agricultural landscapes problematic. The Joint Experiment for Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) was established in 2009 to bring together the global scientific community to work towards a set of best practices and recommendations for using earth observation data to map, monitor and report on agricultural productivity globally across an array of diverse agricultural systems. These methods form the research and development component of the Group on Earth Observation Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative to harmonize global monitoring efforts and increase market transparency. The JECAM initiative brings together researchers from a large number of globally distributed, well monitored agricultural test sites that cover a range of crop types, cropping systems and climate regimes. Each test site works independently as well as together across multiple sites to test methods, sensors and field data collection techniques to derive key agricultural parameters, including crop type, crop condition, crop yield and soil moisture. The outcome of this project will be a set of best practices that cover the range of remote sensing monitoring and reporting needs, including satellite data acquisition, pre-processing techniques, information retrieval and ground data validation. These outcomes provide the research and development foundation for GEOGLAM and will help to inform the development of the GEOGLAM "system of systems" for global agricultural monitoring. The outcomes of the 2014 JECAM science meeting will be discussed as well as examples of methods being developed by JECAM scientists.

  20. Global Rome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Is 21st-century Rome a global city? Is it part of Europe's core or periphery? This volume examines the “real city” beyond Rome's historical center, exploring the diversity and challenges of life in neighborhoods affected by immigration, neoliberalism, formal urban planning, and grassroots social...... movements. The contributors engage with themes of contemporary urban studies–the global city, the self-made city, alternative modernities, capital cities and nations, urban change from below, and sustainability. Global Rome serves as a provocative introduction to the Eternal City and makes an original...

  1. The future of Yellowcake: A global assessment of uranium resources and mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mudd, Gavin M., E-mail: Gavin.Mudd@monash.edu

    2014-02-01

    Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting — allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues. - Highlights: • An extensive data set on global uranium resources and classified by deposit type. • Comprehensive analysis of key trends, such as ore grades and recovery rates. • Energy and carbon intensity of production shows an increase as ore grades decline. • Mine rehabilitation often shows poor success or accounts of long-term effectiveness. • Real constraints on nuclear power remain safety and costs compared to alternatives.

  2. GLOBOX: A spatially differentiated global fate, intake and effect model for toxicity assessment in LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegener Sleeswijk, Anneke; Heijungs, Reinout

    2010-06-15

    GLOBOX is a model for the calculation of spatially differentiated LCA toxicity characterisation factors on a global scale. It can also be used for human and environmental risk assessment. The GLOBOX model contains equations for the calculation of fate, intake and effect factors, and equations for the calculation of LCA characterisation factors for human toxicity and ecotoxicity. The model is differentiated on the level of 239 countries/territories and 50 seas/oceans. Each region has its own set of homogeneous compartments, and the regions are interconnected by atmospheric and aquatic flows. Multimedia transport and degradation calculations are largely based on the EUSES 2.0 multimedia model, and are supplemented by specific equations to account for the advective air and water transport between different countries and/or seas. Metal-specific equations are added to account for speciation in fresh and marine surface water. Distribution parameters for multimedia transport equations are differentiated per country or sea with respect to geographic features, hydrology, and climate. The model has been tested with nitrobenzene as a test chemical, for emissions to all countries in the world. Spatially differentiated characterisation factors turn out to show wide ranges of variation between countries, especially for releases to inland water and soil compartments. Geographic position, distribution of lakes and rivers and variations in environmental temperature and rain rate are decisive parameters for a number of different characterisation factors. Population density and dietary intake play central roles in the variation of characterisation factors for human toxicity. Among the countries that show substantial deviations from average values of the characterisation factors are not only small and remote islands, but also countries with a significant economic production rate, as indicated by their GDPs. It is concluded that spatial differentiation between countries is an important

  3. Assessing the Benefits of Global Climate Stabilization Within an Integrated Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, R. H.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been a number of studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry. However, relatively few studies explore climate change impacts on both agriculture and forests simultaneously, including the interactions between alternative land uses and implications for market outcomes. Additionally, there is a lack of detailed analyses of the effects of stabilization scenarios relative to unabated emissions scenarios. Such analyses are important for developing estimates of the benefits of those stabilization scenarios, which can play a vital role in assessing tradeoffs associated with allocating resources across alternative mitigation and adaptation activities. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative

  4. Assessment of Costs for a Global Climate Fund Against Public Sector Disaster Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mechler, Reinhard; Pflug, Georg; Williges, Keith

    2013-04-01

    National governments are key actors in managing climate variability and change, yet, many countries, faced with exhausted tax bases, high levels of indebtedness and limited donor assistance, have been unable to raise sufficient and timely capital to replace or repair damaged assets and restore livelihoods following major disasters exacerbating the impacts of disaster shocks on poverty and development. For weather extremes, which form a subset of the adaptation challenge and are supposed to increase in intensity and frequency with a changing climate, we conduct an assessment of the costs of managing and financing today's public sector risks on a global scale for more than 180 countries. A countries financial vulnerability is defined as a function of its financial resilience and its exposure to disaster risk. While disaster risk is estimated in terms of asset loss distributions based on catastrophe modeling approaches, financial resilience is operationalized as the public sector's ability to pay for relief to the affected population and support the reconstruction of affected assets and infrastructure for a given event. We consider governments financially vulnerable to disasters if they cannot access sufficient funding after a disaster to cover their liabilities. We operationalize this concept by the term resource gap, which we define the net loss associated with a disaster event after exhausting all possible ex-post and ex ante financing sources. Extending this approach for all possible disaster events, the risk that a resource gap will occur over a given time-span can be calculated for each country individually and dependent on the risk level different risk instruments may have to be applied. Furthermore, our estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a "climate insurance fund" absorbing "high level" country risks exceeding the ability of any given country to pay in the case of an extreme event. Our estimates relate to today's climate, yet we suggest that

  5. Global Soil Moisture from the Aquarius/SAC-D Satellite: Description and Initial Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindlish, Rajat; Jackson, Thomas; Cosh, Michael; Zhao, Tianjie; O'Neil, Peggy

    2015-01-01

    Aquarius satellite observations over land offer a new resource for measuring soil moisture from space. Although Aquarius was designed for ocean salinity mapping, our objective in this investigation is to exploit the large amount of land observations that Aquarius acquires and extend the mission scope to include the retrieval of surface soil moisture. The soil moisture retrieval algorithm development focused on using only the radiometer data because of the extensive heritage of passive microwave retrieval of soil moisture. The single channel algorithm (SCA) was implemented using the Aquarius observations to estimate surface soil moisture. Aquarius radiometer observations from three beams (after bias/gain modification) along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction model forecast surface temperatures were then used to retrieve soil moisture. Ancillary data inputs required for using the SCA are vegetation water content, land surface temperature, and several soil and vegetation parameters based on land cover classes. The resulting global spatial patterns of soil moisture were consistent with the precipitation climatology and with soil moisture from other satellite missions (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity). Initial assessments were performed using in situ observations from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Little Washita and Little River watershed soil moisture networks. Results showed good performance by the algorithm for these land surface conditions for the period of August 2011-June 2013 (rmse = 0.031 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), Bias = -0.007 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), and R = 0.855). This radiometer-only soil moisture product will serve as a baseline for continuing research on both active and combined passive-active soil moisture algorithms. The products are routinely available through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration data archive at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

  6. Assessment of dissolved Pb concentration and isotopic composition in surface waters of the modern global ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinedo-Gonzalez, P.; West, A. J.; Sanudo-Wilhelmy, S. A.

    2015-12-01

    Lead (Pb) produced by human activities, mainly from leaded gasoline combustion and high-temperature industries, dominates Pb in our present-day oceans. Previous studies have shown that surface ocean Pb concentrations and isotope ratios have varied in time and space, reflecting the changes in the amount of inputs and sources of anthropogenic Pb. However, data on surface ocean Pb is quite limited, especially for some basins like the Indian Ocean. In the present study, Pb concentrations and stable isotopes (208, 207, and 206) have been analyzed in surface water samples (3m depth) collected during the Malaspina Circumnavigation Expedition, 2010. Our results are compared with data from the literature to i) evaluate the changing status of metal contamination in surface waters of the global ocean over the last 30 years, and ii) propose potential sources of modern Pb to the oceans. Our results show that Pb concentrations in surface waters of the North Atlantic Ocean have decreased ~ 40% since 1975, attributable to the phase-out of leaded gasoline in North America. This result is corroborated by stable Pb isotope measurements. Furthermore, the isotopic gradient observed in surface waters of the studied transects in the north tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean can be attributed to simple mixing of European and African aerosols and Saharan Holocene loess. Results from an understudied transect in the Southern Indian Ocean give an indication of the source region of Pb delivered to this region. Although comparison with literature data is limited, mixing of Australian ores and African and Australian coals could potentially explain the measured Pb isotope composition. This study provides an opportunity to build on the work of previous oceanographic campaigns, enabling us to assess the impact of anthropogenic Pb inputs to the ocean and the relative importance of various Pb sources, providing new insights into the transport and fate of Pb in the oceans.

  7. The economic costs of natural disasters globally from 1900-2015: historical and normalised floods, storms, earthquakes, volcanoes, bushfires, drought and other disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schaefer, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    For the first time, a breakdown of natural disaster losses from 1900-2015 based on over 30,000 event economic losses globally is given based on increased analysis within the CATDAT Damaging Natural Disaster databases. Using country-CPI and GDP deflator adjustments, over 7 trillion (2015-adjusted) in losses have occurred; over 40% due to flood/rainfall, 26% due to earthquake, 19% due to storm effects, 12% due to drought, 2% due to wildfire and under 1% due to volcano. Using construction cost indices, higher percentages of flood losses are seen. Depending on how the adjustment of dollars are made to 2015 terms (CPI vs. construction cost indices), between 6.5 and 14.0 trillion USD (2015-adjusted) of natural disaster losses have been seen from 1900-2015 globally. Significant reductions in economic losses have been seen in China and Japan from 1950 onwards. An AAL of around 200 billion in the last 16 years has been seen equating to around 0.25% of Global GDP or around 0.1% of Net Capital Stock per year. Normalised losses have also been calculated to examine the trends in vulnerability through time for economic losses. The normalisation methodology globally using the exposure databases within CATDAT that were undertaken previously in papers for the earthquake and volcano databases, are used for this study. The original event year losses are adjusted directly by capital stock change, very high losses are observed with respect to floods over time (however with improved flood control structures). This shows clear trends in the improvement of building stock towards natural disasters and a decreasing trend in most perils for most countries.

  8. Can subjective global assessment of nutritional status predict survival in ovarian cancer?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gupta Digant

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malnutrition is a significant problem in patients with ovarian cancer. The goal of this study was to investigate the prognostic role of Subjective Global Assessment (SGA in patients with ovarian cancer treated in an integrative cancer treatment setting. Methods We evaluated a case series of 132 ovarian cancer patients treated at Cancer Treatment Centers of America® from Jan 2001 to May 2006. SGA was used to assess nutritional status at baseline. Using SGA, patients were classified as well nourished (SGA A, moderately malnourished (SGA B or severely malnourished (SGA C. Kaplan Meier method was used to calculate survival. Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to evaluate the prognostic effect of SGA independent of other factors. Results Of 132 patients, 24 were newly diagnosed while 108 had received prior treatment. 15 had stage I disease at diagnosis, 8 stage II, 85 stage III and 17 stage IV. The median age at presentation was 54.4 years (range 25.5 – 82.5 years. 66 patients were well-nourished (SGA A, 35 moderately malnourished (SGA B and 31 severely malnourished (SGA C. Well nourished patients had a median survival of 19.3 months (95% CI: 14.1 to 24.5, moderately malnourished 15.5 months (95% CI: 5.8 to 25.1, and severely malnourished 6.7 months (95% CI: 4.1 to 9.3; the difference being statistically significant (p = 0.0003. Multivariate Cox modeling, after adjusting for stage at diagnosis and prior treatment history found that moderately malnourished and severely malnourished status were associated with a relative risk of 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 to 3.6, p = 0.008 and 3.4 (95% CI: 1.9 to 5.8, p Conclusion Univariate and multivariate survival analyses found that low SGA scores (i.e. well-nourished status are associated with better survival outcomes. This study lends support to the role of aggressive nutritional intervention in improving patient outcomes in cancer care.

  9. Globalizing Urban Economies and Social Inequality: an Empirical Assessment: The Case of Amsterdam and Rotterdam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.P.L. Burgers (Jack); J. van der Waal (Jeroen)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractOne of the key arguments in the grand narratives on globalization is that of time-space compression. Reflecting the discussion on the relations between globalization and inequality, this chapter argues that the most important local effect of the immensely increased mobility has been a pr

  10. Global Business Literacy in the Classroom: Developing and Applying an Assessment Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arevalo, Jorge A.; McCrea, Elizabeth; Yin, Jason Z.

    2012-01-01

    This study develops and applies a framework to evaluate undergraduate Global Business Literacy (GBL) learning outcomes, which is defined here as the ability to adapt and function in the global business context and to be knowledgeable about its core issues and trends. As a first step in a multi-stage research process, we used extant expatriate and…

  11. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsd

  12. Assessment of a zoomed global model for the North Sea by comparison with a conventional nested regional model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Su

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of marine downscaling of global model simulations to the regional scale is a prerequisite for understanding ocean feedback to the atmosphere in regional climate downscaling. Major difficulties arise from the coarse grid resolution of global models, which cannot provide sufficiently accurate boundary values for the regional model. In this study, we first setup a stretched global model (MPIOM to focus on the North Sea by shifting poles. Second, a regional model (HAMSOM was performed with higher resolution, while the open boundary values were provided by the stretched global model. In general, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs in the two experiments are similar. Major SST differences are found in coastal regions (root mean square difference of SST is reaching up to 2°C. The higher sea surface salinity in coastal regions in the global model indicates the general limitation of this global model and its configuration (surface layer thickness is 16 m. By comparison, the advantage of the absence of open lateral boundaries in the global model can be demonstrated, in particular for the transition region between the North Sea and Baltic Sea. On long timescales, the North Atlantic Current (NAC inflow through the northern boundary correlates well between both model simulations (R~0.9. After downscaling with HAMSOM, the NAC inflow through the northern boundary decreases by ~10%, but the circulation in the Skagerrak is stronger in HAMSOM. The circulation patterns of both models are similar in the northern North Sea. The comparison suggests that the stretched global model system is a suitable tool for long-term free climate model simulations, and the only limitations occur in coastal regions. Regarding the regional studies focusing on the coastal zone, nested regional model can be a helpful alternative.

  13. Simple Method for Assessing Spread of Flood Prone Areas under Historical and Future Rainfall in the Upper Citarum Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Dwi Dasanto

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available From 1931 to 2010 the flood frequency in Upper Citarum Watershed had increased sharply indicating the decline of the wateshed quality. With the change of climate, risk of the flood may get worse. This study aims to determine effective rainfall that caused flooding and to evaluate the impact of future rainfall changes on the flood prone areas. Effective rainfall which contributes to direct runoff (DRO and leads to flooding was determined using regression equation relating the DRO and cumulative rainfall of a number of consecutive days. Mapping the flood prone areas was developed using the GIS techniques. Results showed that the effective rainfall which caused flooding was the rainfall accumulation for four consecutive days before occurrence of peak of DRO. The percentage of accuracy between estimated and actual flood maps was about 76.9%. According to historical rainfall, the flood prone areas spreaded at right and left directions of the Upstream Citarum River. If this area experiences the climate change, the frequency and flood extents will increase. This study can only identify locations and possibility of flood occurrence but it cannot demonstrate widespread of flood inundation precisely. However, this simple approach can evaluate the flood frequency and intensity quite well.

  14. Cliff stability assessment using electrical resistivity tomography at the historic WWII D-Day invasion site, Pointe du Hoc, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everett, M. E.; Udphuay, S.; Warden, R.

    2007-05-01

    The 1944 D-Day invasion site at Pointe du Hoc, Normandy, France is an important WWII battlefield and cultural resource but is at risk from chalk cliff collapse. The American Battle Monuments Commission tasked us to evaluate the geohazard to the observation post and other cliff-side buildings of historical significance. Geophysical multi-electrode resistivity profiling is used to study cliff stability and the condition of the observation- post foundations. Preliminary 2-D geological interpretations are provided of individual profiles. The copious steel, concrete and void spaces at the site renders hydrogeological interpretation challenging but tractable. The cliff face appears to be relatively intact and well-drained. Several routes taken by groundwater into fractures within the chalk were identified mainly on the western side of the site. The eastern side is drier and somewhat sheltered from the Atlantic storms but may contain large void spaces that could efficiently transmit groundwater flow during heavy precipitation events, thereby imperiling the major antiaircraft gun emplacement occupied by Col. Rudder in the early days of the Allied invasion. The forward German observation post perched close to the sea stack, which now hosts the U.S. Ranger memorial, may be moving with the soil and not securely anchored to bedrock. A complex failure mechanism is identified as a combination of groundwater dissolution of the fractured chalk and sea wave attack at the cliff base.

  15. Linking biological integrity and watershed models to assess the impacts of historical land use and climate changes on stream health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einheuser, Matthew D; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Wang, Lizhu; Sowa, Scott P; Woznicki, Sean A

    2013-06-01

    Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R (2) = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.

  16. Safety assessment of historical masonry churches based on pre-assigned kinematic limit analysis, FE limit and pushover analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milani, Gabriele, E-mail: milani@stru.polimi.it; Valente, Marco, E-mail: milani@stru.polimi.it [Department of Architecture, Built Environment and Construction Engineering (ABC), Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan (Italy)

    2014-10-06

    This study presents some results of a comprehensive numerical analysis on three masonry churches damaged by the recent Emilia-Romagna (Italy) seismic events occurred in May 2012. The numerical study comprises: (a) pushover analyses conducted with a commercial code, standard nonlinear material models and two different horizontal load distributions; (b) FE kinematic limit analyses performed using a non-commercial software based on a preliminary homogenization of the masonry materials and a subsequent limit analysis with triangular elements and interfaces; (c) kinematic limit analyses conducted in agreement with the Italian code and based on the a-priori assumption of preassigned failure mechanisms, where the masonry material is considered unable to withstand tensile stresses. All models are capable of giving information on the active failure mechanism and the base shear at failure, which, if properly made non-dimensional with the weight of the structure, gives also an indication of the horizontal peak ground acceleration causing the collapse of the church. The results obtained from all three models indicate that the collapse is usually due to the activation of partial mechanisms (apse, façade, lateral walls, etc.). Moreover the horizontal peak ground acceleration associated to the collapse is largely lower than that required in that seismic zone by the Italian code for ordinary buildings. These outcomes highlight that structural upgrading interventions would be extremely beneficial for the considerable reduction of the seismic vulnerability of such kind of historical structures.

  17. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produ...

  18. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Supit, Iwan; Wolf, Joost

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects, prod

  19. Teaching Historical Contextualization : The Construction of an Observational Instrument

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijgen, Tim; van de Grift, Wim; van Boxtel, Carla; Holthuis, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This study chronicles the development an observational instrument to assess teacher competencies in stimulating historical contextualization. Based on previous historical contextualization research, we extracted observable items related to the development of historical contextualization in classroom

  20. Graduate programs in Public Health in Argentina and Brazil: historical origins and recent trends in quality assessment processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginia Alonso Hortale

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the uniqueness of methodologies used in the quality assessment of graduate studies programs in Public Health in two Latin American countries: Argentina and Brazil. The authors conducted a search in websites that addressed themes such as "public health training and education" and "quality assessment methodologies", besides reexamining documents and bibliography on the theme. The analysis took the following dimensions into account: the Latin American political and economic context during the previous ten years (1994-2004, reforms in the educational systems (emphasizing graduate studies, and the quality assessment methodologies implemented. The authors found similarities in the evaluation systems in effect in both countries, as well as shortcomings in these processes, namely, evaluation driven by supervision and control rather than redirection and reorientation of teaching, and the mandatory adjustment of courses to a standard model defined by experts.

  1. A model based investigation of the relative importance of CO2-fertilization, climate warming, nitrogen deposition and land use change on the global terrestrial carbon uptake in the historical period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devaraju, N.; Bala, G.; Caldeira, K.; Nemani, R.

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, using the fully coupled NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0.4), we investigate the relative importance of CO2-fertilization, climate warming, anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover change (LULCC) for terrestrial carbon uptake during the historical period (1850-2005). In our simulations, between the beginning and end of this period, we find an increase in global net primary productivity (NPP) on land of about 4 PgCyr-1 (8.2 %) with a contribution of 2.3 PgCyr-1 from CO2-fertilization and 2.0 PgCyr-1 from nitrogen deposition. Climate warming also causes NPP to increase by 0.35 PgCyr-1 but LULCC causes a decline of 0.7 PgCyr-1. These results indicate that the recent increase in vegetation productivity is most likely driven by CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition. Further, we find that this configuration of CESM projects that the global terrestrial ecosystem has been a net source of carbon during 1850-2005 (release of 45.1 ± 2.4 PgC), largely driven by historical LULCC related CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere. During the recent three decades (early 1970s to early 2000s), however, our model simulations project that the terrestrial ecosystem acts as a sink, taking up about 10 PgC mainly due to CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition. Our results are in good qualitative agreement with recent studies that indicate an increase in vegetation production and water use efficiency in the satellite era and that the terrestrial ecosystem has been a net sink for carbon in recent decades.

  2. Development and Psychometric Assessment of the Measure of Globalization Influence on Health Risk (MGIHR) Among Mexican Women with Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nodora, Jesse N; Carvajal, Scott C; Robles-Garcia, Rebeca; Agraz, Francisco Páez; Daneri-Navarro, Adrian; Meza-Montenegro, Maria Mercedes; Gutierrez-Millan, Luis Enrique; Martinez, Maria Elena

    2015-08-01

    Lacking in the literature are data addressing the extent to which changes in reproductive and lifestyle factors predispose women in developing nations to higher breast cancer rates, and the degree to which these are due to globalization influences. This article describes the development and psychometric assessment of an instrument intended to measure global, predominantly U.S., influences on breast cancer risk profile among women residing in Mexico. Using investigator consensus and a focus group methodology, the Measure of Globalization Influence on Health Risk (MGIHR) was developed and completed by 341 women. Psychometric analysis support the use of an 11-item Consumerism and Modernity scale and 7-item Reproductive Control and Gender Role scale. The MGIHR is a valid and reliable instrument for understanding changing lifestyle and reproductive factors for breast cancer risk and may provide a more complete understanding of breast cancer development and needed interventions.

  3. Globalization, Class and Culture in Global Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Friedman

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The work of Immanuel Wallerstein has been criticized by certain anthropologists for not having taken culture into proper account. He has been accused of the sin of political economy, a not uncommon accusation, a re?ex of the 80’s and post-80’s anthropological jargon that might ?nally today be exhausted. Years earlier a number of social scientists were engaged in a critical assessment of the social sciences from a distinctively global perspective. Wallerstein, Frank and others were at the forefront of this critique which had a powerful impact on anthropology. The global perspective was not a mere addition to anthropological knowledge, not a mere of extension of the use of the culture concept, i.e. before it was local and now it is global, before culture stood still, but now in the global age, it ?ows around the world. It was a more fundamental critique, or at least it implied a more fundamental critique. This critique could only be attained from a perspective in which the very concept of society was re-conceived as something very different, as a locus constructed within a historical force ?eld which was very much broader than any particular politically de?ned unit.

  4. Ensuring Credibility of the Third National Climate Assessment through Provenance Traceability in the Global Change Information System (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, C.; Aulenbach, S.; Duggan, B.; Goldstein, J.

    2013-12-01

    A Federal Advisory Committee (The "National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee" or NCADAC) has overseen the development of a draft climate report that after extensive review will be considered by the Federal Government in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA). This comprehensive report (1) Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; (2) Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and (3) Analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), composed of the 13 federal agencies most concerned with global change, is building a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will ultimately organize access to all the program-wide research, data, and information about global change. A prototype of the system has been constructed that captures and presents all of the elements of provenance of the NCA through a coherent data model and friendly front end web site. This work will focus on the documentation of the provenance of the NCA report and our general approach and data model for capturing, archiving, and presenting that provenance information. We will demonstrate how our approach contributes to the general credibility of the scientific results synthesized through the report. We will also present plans for longer term curation of the material stored in the GCIS and how it can support preservation and stewardship goals throughout the contributing federal agencies.

  5. Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2014-01-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  6. Irrigation as an historical climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2015-03-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  7. Glass vs. Plastic: Life Cycle Assessment of Extra-Virgin Olive Oil Bottles across Global Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Accorsi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The environmental impacts of global food supply chains are growing with the need for their measurement and management. This paper explores the operations of a global supply chain for extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO according to a life cycle assessment (LCA methodology. The LCA assessment methodology is applied to determine the environmental impact categories associated with the bottled EVOO life cycle, focusing on packaging decisions. The proposed analysis identifies the greatest environmental stressors of the EVOO supply chain, thereby supporting strategic and operative decisions toward more efficient and environmentally-friendly operations management and packaging choices. This paper quantifies the environmental categories of the impacts of global warming potential, ozone layer depletion, non-renewable energy use, acidification, eutrophication and photochemical smog, for the observed EVOO supply chain, given alternative packaging configurations, i.e., a glass bottle vs. a plastic bottle. The observed system includes the supply of EVOO, the EVOO processing and bottling, the supply of packaging, the distribution of final products to customers, the end-of-life (EOL treatments regarding the management, recycling and the disposal of waste across a global supply chain. The findings from the LCA highlight the potential of PET bottles in reducing the environmental impact of EVOO supply chains and identifies hotspots of discussion for policy-makers, EVOO producers and consumers.

  8. Uncertainty propagation in life cycle assessment of biodiesel versus diesel: global warming and non-renewable energy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jinglan

    2012-06-01

    Uncertainty information is essential for the proper use of life cycle assessment and environmental assessments in decision making. To investigate the uncertainties of biodiesel and determine the level of confidence in the assertion that biodiesel is more environmentally friendly than diesel, an explicit analytical approach based on the Taylor series expansion for lognormal distribution was applied in the present study. A biodiesel case study demonstrates the probability that biodiesel has a lower global warming and non-renewable energy score than diesel, that is 92.3% and 93.1%, respectively. The results indicate the level of confidence in the assertion that biodiesel is more environmentally friendly than diesel based on the global warming and non-renewable energy scores.

  9. ShakeMap Atlas 2.0: an improved suite of recent historical earthquake ShakeMaps for global hazard analyses and loss model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, D.; Mah, R.T.; Johnson, K.L.; Hearne, M.G.; Marano, K.D.; Lin, K.-W.; Wald, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    We introduce the second version of the U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap Atlas, which is an openly-available compilation of nearly 8,000 ShakeMaps of the most significant global earthquakes between 1973 and 2011. This revision of the Atlas includes: (1) a new version of the ShakeMap software that improves data usage and uncertainty estimations; (2) an updated earthquake source catalogue that includes regional locations and finite fault models; (3) a refined strategy to select prediction and conversion equations based on a new seismotectonic regionalization scheme; and (4) vastly more macroseismic intensity and ground-motion data from regional agencies All these changes make the new Atlas a self-consistent, calibrated ShakeMap catalogue that constitutes an invaluable resource for investigating near-source strong ground-motion, as well as for seismic hazard, scenario, risk, and loss-model development. To this end, the Atlas will provide a hazard base layer for PAGER loss calibration and for the Earthquake Consequences Database within the Global Earthquake Model initiative.

  10. Climate for Culture : assessing the impact of climate change on the future indoor climate in historic buildings using simulations

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Background The present study reports results from the large-scale integrated EU project "Climate for Culture". The full name, or title, of the project is Climate for Culture: damage risk assessment, economic impact and mitigation strategies for sustainable preservation of cultural heritage in times of climate change. This paper focusses on implementing high resolution regional climate models together with new building simulation tools in order to predict future outdoor and indoor climate cond...

  11. Toward an Assessment of the Global Inventory of Present-Day Mercury Releases to Freshwater Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Kocman

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Aquatic ecosystems are an essential component of the biogeochemical cycle of mercury (Hg, as inorganic Hg can be converted to toxic methylmercury (MeHg in these environments and reemissions of elemental Hg rival anthropogenic Hg releases on a global scale. Quantification of effluent Hg releases to aquatic systems globally has focused on discharges to the global oceans, rather than contributions to freshwater systems that affect local exposures and risks associated with MeHg. Here we produce a first-estimate of sector-specific, spatially resolved global aquatic Hg discharges to freshwater systems. We compare our release estimates to atmospheric sources that have been quantified elsewhere. By analyzing available quantitative and qualitative information, we estimate that present-day global Hg releases to freshwater environments (rivers and lakes associated with anthropogenic activities have a lower bound of ~1000 Mg· a−1. Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM represents the single largest source, followed by disposal of mercury-containing products and domestic waste water, metal production, and releases from industrial installations such as chlor-alkali plants and oil refineries. In addition to these direct anthropogenic inputs, diffuse inputs from land management activities and remobilization of Hg previously accumulated in terrestrial ecosystems are likely comparable in magnitude. Aquatic discharges of Hg are greatly understudied and further constraining associated data gaps is crucial for reducing the uncertainties in the global biogeochemical Hg budget.

  12. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-11-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

  13. Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF: properties and frontier of current knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aas IH Monrad

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF is well known internationally and widely used for scoring the severity of illness in psychiatry. Problems with GAF show a need for its further development (for example validity and reliability problems. The aim of the present study was to identify gaps in current knowledge about properties of GAF that are of interest for further development. Properties of GAF are defined as characteristic traits or attributes that serve to define GAF (or may have a role to define a future updated GAF. Methods A thorough literature search was conducted. Results A number of gaps in knowledge about the properties of GAF were identified: for example, the current GAF has a continuous scale, but is a continuous or categorical scale better? Scoring is not performed by setting a mark directly on a visual scale, but could this improve scoring? Would new anchor points, including key words and examples, improve GAF (anchor points for symptoms, functioning, positive mental health, prognosis, improvement of generic properties, exclusion criteria for scoring in 10-point intervals, and anchor points at the endpoints of the scale? Is a change in the number of anchor points and their distribution over the total scale important? Could better instructions for scoring within 10-point intervals improve scoring? Internationally, both single and dual scales for GAF are used, but what is the advantage of having separate symptom and functioning scales? Symptom (GAF-S and functioning (GAF-F scales should score different dimensions and still be correlated, but what is the best combination of definitions for GAF-S and GAF-F? For GAF with more than two scales there is limited empirical testing, but what is gained or lost by using more than two scales? Conclusions In the history of GAF, its basic properties have undergone limited changes. Problems with GAF may, in part, be due to lack of a research programme testing the effects of

  14. A global assessment of the societal impacts of glacier outburst floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Tweed, Fiona S.

    2016-09-01

    Glacier outburst floods are sudden releases of large amounts of water from a glacier. They are a pervasive natural hazard worldwide. They have an association with climate primarily via glacier mass balance and their impacts on society partly depend on population pressure and land use. Given the ongoing changes in climate and land use and population distributions there is therefore an urgent need to discriminate the spatio-temporal patterning of glacier outburst floods and their impacts. This study presents data compiled from 20 countries and comprising 1348 glacier floods spanning 10 centuries. Societal impacts were assessed using a relative damage index based on recorded deaths, evacuations, and property and infrastructure destruction and disruption. These floods originated from 332 sites; 70% were from ice-dammed lakes and 36% had recorded societal impact. The number of floods recorded has apparently reduced since the mid-1990s in all major world regions. Two thirds of sites that have produced > 5 floods (n = 32) have floods occurring progressively earlier in the year. Glacier floods have directly caused at least: 7 deaths in Iceland, 393 deaths in the European Alps, 5745 deaths in South America and 6300 deaths in central Asia. Peru, Nepal and India have experienced fewer floods yet higher levels of damage. One in five sites in the European Alps has produced floods that have damaged farmland, destroyed homes and damaged bridges; 10% of sites in South America have produced glacier floods that have killed people and damaged infrastructure; 15% of sites in central Asia have produced floods that have inundated farmland, destroyed homes, damaged roads and damaged infrastructure. Overall, Bhutan and Nepal have the greatest national-level economic consequences of glacier flood impacts. We recommend that accurate, full and standardised monitoring, recording and reporting of glacier floods is essential if spatio-temporal patterns in glacier flood occurrence, magnitude and

  15. National Assessment of Shoreline Change; historical shoreline change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; List, Jeffrey H.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of this study, the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts is the fifth in a series of reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast Atlantic, and, for California, the sandy shoreline and the coastal cliffs. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Because of the geomorphology of the New England and Mid-Atlantic (rocky coastlines, large embayments and beaches) as well as data gaps in some areas, this report presents beach erosion rates for 78 percent of the 1,360 kilometers of the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The New England and Mid-Atlantic shores were subdivided into a total of 10 analysis regions for the purpose of reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long

  16. Comparison between Subjective Global Assessment methods in oncology Comparação entre métodos de Avaliação Subjetiva Global

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Milani El-Kik

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To compare results achieved in using the subjective global assessment (SGA and the patient generated subjective global assessment (PG-SGA in order to improve nutritional assistance to cancer patients. Materials and Methods: This is a transversal observational study with an analytical descriptive approach. The data collection was done through the application of SGA and PG-SGA in patients older than 20 years-old, both sexes, in a university hospital, with a cancer diagnosis. The study was approved by the Ethical Research Committee at PUCRS. Results: 68 patients took part of the study. The descriptive evaluation revealed 4 patients assessed as "well-nourished" by both SGA and PG-SGA. 96.5% of the 57 patients assessed by the SGA as "moderately or suspected of being malnourished" presented the same result in the PG-SGA. As regards the 7 patients appointed as "severely malnourished" by the SGA, 71.4% presented the same result in the PG-SGA. Such results disclosed a difference in the nutritional diagnosis of 4 patients, which is not statistically significant (p=0.135. Kappa’s quotient suggests a strong agreement between both methods (Kappa=0.793; p=0.001. Conclusion: Although the SGA is a common nutritional evaluation tool used in several hospitals, the use of the PG-SGA can also be an alternative, according to the availability and suitability of each place.Objetivo: Comparar os resultados obtidos através da utilização da avaliação subjetiva global (ASG e da avaliação subjetiva global produzida pelo paciente (ASG-PPP, a fim de qualificar a assistência nutricional prestada ao paciente oncológico. Materiais e Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo observacional, transversal, com abordagem descritiva e analítica. A coleta de dados foi feita através da aplicação da ASG e da ASG-PPP em pacientes a partir de 20 anos de idade, de ambos os sexos, internados na Unidade de Internação de um hospital universitário, com diagnóstico de c

  17. Sustainability Performance of Scandinavian Corporations and their Value Chains assessed by UN Global Compact and Global Reporting Initiative standards - a way to identify superior performers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to introduce a combination of the two most adopted multi- stakeholder standards for sustainability reporting as an alternate framework for assessing sustainability performance in Scandinavian corporations. This novel approach leverages numeric measures on the criteria...... Strategies & Policies, Management Systems, Monitoring and Evaluation Mechanisms and Key Outcomes on sustainability defined broadly as the Human Rights, Labour, Environment and Anti-Corruption issues by the UN Global Compact. The study firmly concludes that Scandinavian corporations on average...... are not performing on higher levels concerning their implementation of these issues. The generalization of the results is moderated by the study's limitations concerning the framework and data sources used, sample size and the indirect use of GRI indicators. The uniqueness of the sustainability practice by two...

  18. A global water scarcity assessment under shared socio-economic pathways – Part 2: Water availability and scarcity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Masui

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century was conducted under the latest socio-economic scenario for global change studies, namely Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs. SSPs depict five global situations with substantially different socio-economic conditions. In the accompanying paper, a water use scenario compatible with the SSPs was developed. This scenario considers not only quantitative socio-economic factors such as population and electricity production but also qualitative ones such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. In this paper, water availability and water scarcity were assessed using a global hydrological model called H08. H08 simulates both the natural water cycle and major human activities such as water withdrawal and reservoir operation. It simulates water availability and use at daily time intervals at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. A series of global hydrological simulations were conducted under the SSPs, taking into account different climate policy options and the results of climate models. Water scarcity was assessed using an index termed the Cumulative Withdrawal to Demand ratio, which is expressed as the accumulation of daily water withdrawal from a river over the potential daily water consumption demand. This index can be used to express whether renewable water resources are available from rivers when required. The results suggested that by 2071–2100 the population living under severely water stressed conditions for SSP1-5 will reach 2588–2793 × 106 (39–42% of total population, 3966–4298 × 106 (46–50%, 5334–5643 × 106 (52–55%, 3427–3786 × 106 (40–45%, 3164–3379 × 106 (46–49%, respectively, if climate policies are not adopted. Even in SSP1 (the scenario with least change in water use and climate global water scarcity increases considerably, as compared to the present day. This is mainly due to the growth in population and economic

  19. Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration with Biochar: A Preliminary Assessment of its Global Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amonette, J.; Lehmann, J.; Joseph, S.

    2007-12-01

    , while sequestering 0.5 Gt as biochar. Of the 60.6 Gt/yr of biomass that is fixed in usable form, we estimate that perhaps 10% of it (6.1 Gt/yr) could become available in one form or another (crop and forestry residues, and animal waste) for pyrolysis. This level of pyrolysis would offset 1.8 Gt/yr of fossil C, and sequester 3.0 Gt/yr as biochar, enough to halt the increase and actually decrease the level of atmospheric C by 0.7 Gt/yr. Even at half this level (i.e., 5% of annually fixed biomass), pyrolysis would be sufficient to decrease the global C cycle imbalance by 2.4 Gt/yr and in combination with other sequestration options help to achieve the minimum goal of C neutrality. Clearly, the potential contribution of biochar technology is large, perhaps large enough to mitigate climate change alone. However, this preliminary assessment is tempered by several unknowns. Research is needed to further define the impacts of biochar amendments on soil biota, productivity, and greenhouse gas production. For example, there is some evidence that N2O and CH4 production is decreased by biochar amendments, but the mechanisms responsible are unknown. The impact of different types of biochar and pyrolysis conditions also needs to be determined. Lastly, total accounting for greenhouse gas emissions coupled with economic analyses to determine the economic potential of the technology under various scenarios is essential.

  20. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    OpenAIRE

    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Afshin, Ashk