WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing historical global

  1. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  2. Assessing historical global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefohn, A.S. [A.S.L. and Associates, Helena, MT (United States); Husar, J.D.; Husar, R.B. [Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States). Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis; Brimblecombe, P. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    1996-07-19

    Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from energy-producing and metal production activities have become an important factor in better understanding the relationship between humans and the environment. Concerns about (1) acid rain effects on the environment and (2) anthropogenic aerosols affecting possible global change have prompted interest in the transformation and fate of sulfur in the environment. One step in assessing the importance of sulfur emissions is the development of a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time. The objective of this research effort was to create a homogeneous database for historical sulfur emission estimates for the world. The time from 1850--1990 was selected to include the period of industrialization form the time the main production of fuels and minerals began until the most recent year for which complete production data exist. This research effort attempts to correct some of the deficiencies associated with previous global sulfur emission estimates by (1) identifying those production activities that resulted in sulfur emissions by country and (2) calculating historical emission trends by country across years. An important component of this study was the comparison of the sulfur emission results with those of previous studies.

  3. Towards a global historical biogeography of Palms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couvreur, Thomas; Baker, William J.; Frigerio, Jean-Marc; Sepulchre, Pierre; Franc, Alain

    2017-04-01

    Four mechanisms are at work for deciphering historical biogeography of plants : speciation, extinction, migration, and drift (a sort of neutral speciation). The first three mechanisms are under selection pressure of the environment, mainly the climate and connectivity of land masses. Hence, an accurate history of climate and connectivity or non connectivity between landmasses, as well as orogenesis processes, can shed new light on the most likely speciation events and migration routes driven by paleogeography and paleoclimatology. Currently, some models exist (like DIVA) to infer the most parsimonious history (in the number of migration events) knowing the speciation history given by phylogenies (extinction are mostly unknown), in a given setting of climate and landmass connectivity. In a previous project, we have built in collaboration with LSCE a series of paleogeographic and paleoclimatic maps since the Early Cretaceous. We have developed a program, called Aran, which enables to extend DIVA to a time series of varying paleoclimatic and paleogeogarphic conditions. We apply these new methods and data to unravel the biogeographic history of palms (Arecaceae), a pantropical family of 182 genera and >2600 species whose divergence is dated in Late Cretaceous (100 My). Based on a robust dated molecular phylogeny, novel paleoclimatic and paleogeographic maps, we will generate an updated biogeographic history of Arecaceae inferred from the most parsimonious history using Aran. We will discuss the results, and put them in context with what is known and needed to provide a global biogeographic history of tropical palms.

  4. Historical patterns and drivers of global crop water demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, D.; Lobell, D. B.; Sheffield, J.

    2015-12-01

    With climate change expected to subject staple crops in major growing regions to increased heat exposure, a critical question for agriculture and global food security is the degree to which crop water demand is also likely to change. Recent work has explored the relationship between extreme temperatures and crop water demand, finding that vapor pressure deficit (VPD), through its dependence on both temperature and humidity, provides a very good meteorological predictor of water stress. However, assessing crop water demand solely through atmospheric conditions ignores the roles of radiation and transpiration efficiency, which are increased through elevated CO2. We provide a 60-year global assessment of crop water demand in the world's major growing areas, comparing trends and drivers across key growing regions. We find that an atmospheric-based demand measure can differ significantly from that of a crop-specific sink-based approach that incorporates radiation and CO2 effects, sometimes enough to reverse the sign of historical trends. We also find that these changes differ significantly by region, and that multi-decadal trends can mask large decadal swings. To our knowledge, our work is the first to use global meteorological datasets in a global analysis of crop water demand, and should serve as a valuable reference for future work examining the interaction of hydrological, temperature, and CO2 changes on crop yields.

  5. Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset integrates daily climate observations from approximately 30 different data sources. Version 3...

  6. Uncertainties in global-scale reconstructions of historical land use: An illustration using the HYDE data set.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein Goldewijk, K.; Verburg, P.H.

    2013-01-01

    Land use and land-use change play an important role in global integrated assessments. However, there are still many uncertainties in the role of current and historical land use in the global carbon cycle as well as in other dimensions of global environmental change. Although databases of historical

  7. A Historical Perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick Højrup; Christensen, Per

    2013-01-01

    development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP100), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies......The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical...

  8. 7 CFR 1901.255 - Historical and archeological assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Historical and archeological assessments. 1901.255... Historical and Archeological Properties § 1901.255 Historical and archeological assessments. (a) The FmHA or... preapplication/application review, prepare a historical and archeological assessment of the undertaking. In...

  9. Debating Globalization in Social Studies Education: Approaching Globalization Historically and Discursively

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agbaria, Ayman K.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore the dominant positions in the debates on globalization in American social studies education. Specifically, the paper illustrates that, first, globalization is conceived of as more of an unprecedented new age and less of a historical development. Second, it is conceived of as more of a natural process and…

  10. Prolegomena of Human Rights. Historical Roots and Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Alina Dumitrache-Ionescu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper Prolegomena of Human Rights. Historical Roots and Globalization analyses the complexity of the history of human rights which revolve around an incessant struggle for the awareness of the value of the human being. It is the history which defends the man, the human being, regarded individually or collectively, who was subjected in the course of time to some atrocities and abuses, confronting itself with exploitation, discrimination, oppression, slavery, torture and even extermination. Moreover, the historical evolution of human rights knows halting places in which the concepts of human rights are accompanied by ambiguity, by different meanings for different people and vary in accordance with the context. By way of resemblance, the problem of human rights in the context of globalization which transforms human rights into rights of the global citizen, rights which acquire new dimensions and significances imposed by the economic, politic and social changes specific of globalization is approached in this paper. The global vision of the new human rights involves both the opportunity to have a say when they are infringed for example, when they are subjected to torture or terror, and where human rights abuses are carried out by the people, for example, trafficking in human beings. (Ritzer, & Dean, 2015, p. 115

  11. Science and technology from global and historical perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Karagözoğlu, Bahattin

    2017-01-01

    This book provides science and technology ethos to a literate person. It starts with a rather detailed treatment of basic concepts in human values, educational status and domains of education, development of science and technology and their contributions to the welfare of society. It describes ways and means of scientific progresses and technological advancements with their historical perspectives including scientific viewpoints of contributing scientists and technologists. The technical, social, and cultural dimensions are surveyed in relation to acquisition and application of science, and advantages and hindrances of technological developments. Science and Technology is currently taught as a college course in many universities with the intention to introduce topics from a global historical perspective so that the reader shall stretch his/her vision by mapping the past to the future. The book can also serve as a primary reference for such courses.

  12. Historical global statistics for mineral and material commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matos, Grecia R.; Miller, Lisa D.; Barry, James J.; Matos, Grecia R.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides information on the current use and flow of minerals and mineral-based materials in the U.S. and world economies. This Data Series report on “Historical Global Statistics for Mineral and Material Commodities” contains information on the production of selected commodities from 1990 to the most current year. The data may be used in the analysis of socioeconomic developments and trends and in the study of environmental issues associated with the extraction and processing of the selected commodities.

  13. Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng

    2016-01-01

    for 32 304 forested 55-km grid cells using 1-km global canopy height data (maximum height of 1-km cells within a 55-km grid). Variation in Hmax was related to latitude and biomes, along with environmental and historical variables. Both spatial and non-spatial linear models were used to assess......Summary Canopy height is a key factor that affects carbon storage, vegetation productivity and biodiversity in forests, as well as an indicator of key processes such as biomass allocation. However, global variation in forest canopy height and its determinants are poorly known. We used global data...... on Light Detection and Ranging-derived maximum forest canopy height (Hmax) to test hypotheses relating Hmax to current climate (water availability, ambient energy and water–energy dynamics), regional evolutionary and biogeographic history, historical climate change, and human disturbance. We derived Hmax...

  14. Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng

    2016-01-01

    Summary Canopy height is a key factor that affects carbon storage, vegetation productivity and biodiversity in forests, as well as an indicator of key processes such as biomass allocation. However, global variation in forest canopy height and its determinants are poorly known. We used global data...... on Light Detection and Ranging-derived maximum forest canopy height (Hmax) to test hypotheses relating Hmax to current climate (water availability, ambient energy and water–energy dynamics), regional evolutionary and biogeographic history, historical climate change, and human disturbance. We derived Hmax...... for 32 304 forested 55-km grid cells using 1-km global canopy height data (maximum height of 1-km cells within a 55-km grid). Variation in Hmax was related to latitude and biomes, along with environmental and historical variables. Both spatial and non-spatial linear models were used to assess...

  15. Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.; Smith, S. J.; Montzka, S. A.; Launois, T.; Belviso, S.; Bopp, L.; Laine, M.

    2017-04-05

    Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a feedback for climate change, but there is still strong disagreement on the extent to which biogeochemical processes may suppress this GPP growth at the ecosystem to continental scales. The consequent uncertainty in modeling of future carbon storage by the terrestrial biosphere constitutes one of the largest unknowns in global climate projections for the next century. Here we provide a global, measurement-based estimate of historical GPP growth using long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. We interpret these records using a model that relates changes in the COS concentration to changes in its sources and sinks, the largest of which is proportional to GPP. The COS history was most consistent with simulations that assume a large historical GPP growth. Carbon-climate models that assume little to no GPP growth predicted trajectories of COS concentration over the anthropogenic era that differ from those observed. Continued COS monitoring may be useful for detecting ongoing changes in GPP while extending the ice core record to glacial cycles could provide further opportunities to evaluate earth system models.

  16. Drought - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackner, S.; Barnwal, P.; von der Goltz, J.

    2013-12-01

    We investigate the lasting effects of early childhood exposure to drought on economic and health outcomes in a large multi-country dataset. By pooling all Demographic and Health Survey rounds for which household geocodes are available, we obtain an individual-level dataset covering 47 developing countries. Among other impact measures, we collect infant and child mortality data from 3.3m live births and data on stunting and wasting for 1.2m individuals, along with data on education, employment, wealth, marriage and childbearing later in life for similarly large numbers of respondents. Birth years vary from 1893 to 2012. We seek to improve upon existing work on the socio-economic impact of drought in a number of ways. First, we introduce from the hydrological literature a drought measure, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), that has been shown to closely proxy the Palmer drought index, but has far less demanding data requirements, and can be obtained globally and for long time periods. We estimate the SPI for 110 years on a global 0.5° grid, which allows us to assign drought histories to the geocoded individual data. Additionally, we leverage our large sample size to explicitly investigate both how drought impacts have changed over time as adaptation occurred at a varying pace in different locations, and the role of the regional extent of drought in determining impacts.

  17. Issues in Designing Assessments of Historical Thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercikan, Kadriye; Seixas, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Similar to educators in mathematics, science, and reading, history educators around the world have mobilized curricular reform movements toward including complex thinking in history education, advancing historical thinking, developing historical consciousness, and teaching competence in historical sense making. These reform movements, including…

  18. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-09-01

    In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

  19. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wang

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2 is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07–0.14 °C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 °C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 °C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation.

  20. Global energy shifts: Future possibilities in historical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, Bruce Michael

    2000-11-01

    This study adopts a macro-comparative, world-systems perspective in order to shed light on the dynamics that led to a global shift away from primary reliance on coal and towards over-reliance on petroleum. It is argued that the interaction of three global dynamics, those of geopolitical rivalry, commercial competition, and social unrest, undermined the nineteenth-century international coal system and paved the way for the consolidation of an international petroleum system in the twentieth century. Specifically, the historical analysis presented in this dissertation shows that: (1) intervention by state agents was absolutely crucial in the early development and later expansion of the international petroleum system; (2) private coal companies attempted to prevent the consolidation of an oil-based energy system, but these older companies were out-competed by newer, multinational petroleum corporations; and (3) waves of labor unrest in established coal industries played a key role in prompting a relatively rapid shift away from coal and towards petroleum. Indeed, a key conclusion of this study is that pressures exerted by such social movements as labor unions, nationalist movements, and environmental coalitions have played as important a role in influencing energy trajectories as the more commonly-recognized actions of governmental and corporate actors. By examining contemporary patterns of state and private investments in a cluster of new energy technologies, as well as the growing influence of environmental regulations it is argued that global dynamics are beginning to favor a shift towards new, more environmentally sustainable energy technologies. The fuel cell is highlighted as one new energy technology that is poised to enter into widespread diffusion in the coming decades, though potentials for expansions in wind, solar, small-scale hydro-electric, and modern biomass systems are also examined. Although significant hurdles must be overcome, this study concludes by

  1. Extreme risk assessment based on normalized historic loss data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichner, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Natural hazard risk assessment and risk management focuses on the expected loss magnitudes of rare and extreme events. Such large-scale loss events typically comprise all aspects of compound events and accumulate losses from multiple sectors (including knock-on effects). Utilizing Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE direct economic loss data, we beriefly recap a novel methodology of peril-specific loss data normalization which improves the stationarity properties of highly non-stationary historic loss data (due to socio-economic growth of assets prone to destructive forces), and perform extreme value analysis (peaks-over-threshold method) to come up with return level estimates of e.g. 100-yr loss event scenarios for various types of perils, globally or per continent, and discuss uncertainty in the results.

  2. Industrial Property and global competitiveness in historical perspective; Propiedad industrial y competitividad global en perspectiva historica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saiz, P.

    2011-07-01

    The ability to compete globally changes over time. The processes of technological innovation and education largely determine economic growth and international competitiveness. The development and evolution of Intellectual Property Rights in the long term have been essential for the management of R and D and of creative and innovative competence's in several countries. Thus, economic and technological history becomes an essential tool for analysts and political economists. And the historical archive of the Spanish Patents and Trademarks Office turns out to be a laboratory of the past for thinking on the future. (Author) 48 refs.

  3. Perspective has a strong effect on the calculation of historical contributions to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Berntsen, Terje; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie; Allen, Myles; Kallbekken, Steffen

    2017-02-01

    The politically contentious issue of calculating countries’ contributions to climate change is strongly dependent on methodological choices. Different principles can be applied for distributing efforts for reducing human-induced global warming. According to the ‘Brazilian Proposal’, industrialized countries would reduce emissions proportional to their historical contributions to warming. This proposal was based on the assumption that the political process would lead to a global top-down agreement. The Paris Agreement changed the role of historical responsibilities. Whereas the agreement refers to equity principles, differentiation of mitigation efforts is delegated to each country, as countries will submit new national contributions every five years without any international negotiation. It is likely that considerations of historical contributions and distributive fairness will continue to play a key role, but increasingly so in a national setting. Contributions to warming can be used as a background for negotiations to inform and justify positions, and may also be useful for countries’ own assessment of what constitutes reasonable and fair contributions to limiting warming. Despite the fact that the decision from COP21 explicitly rules out compensation in the context of loss and damage, it is likely that considerations of historical responsibility will also play a role in future discussions. However, methodological choices have substantial impacts on calculated contributions to warming, including rank-ordering of contributions, and thus support the view that there is no single correct answer to the question of how much each country has contributed. There are fundamental value-related and ethical questions that cannot be answered through a single set of calculated contributions. Thus, analyses of historical contributions should not present just one set of results, but rather present a spectrum of results showing how the calculated contributions vary with a

  4. A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Habib, Komal, E-mail: koh@kbm.sdu.dk [Institute of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohr’s Alle 1, 5230 Odense M (Denmark); Schmidt, Jannick H.; Christensen, Per [Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Fibigerstraede 13, DK-9220 Aalborg OE (Denmark)

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • Five scenarios are compared based on different waste management systems from 1970 to 2010. • Technology development for incineration and vehicular exhaust system throughout the time period is considered. • Compared scenarios show continuous improvement regarding environmental performance of waste management system. • Energy and material recovery from waste account for significant savings of Global Warming Potential (GWP) today. • Technology development for incineration has played key role in lowering the GWP during past five decades. - Abstract: The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP{sub 100}), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO{sub 2}-eq. tonne{sup −1} to net saving of 670 kg CO{sub 2}-eq. tonne{sup −1} of MSWM.

  5. [Historical evolution and chinese definition of global health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xiaoyou; Liang, Xiaohui; Mao, Zongfu; Sun, Jikuan; Jiang, Yu; Liu, Yuanli; Ren, Minghui

    2015-03-01

    Under the background of globalization, public health issues are becoming more and more complicated. In the international arena, global health has gradually replaced international health and "global public health" as one of the dominant terms in the field of public health. However, until now, there is no unified understanding and definition for the concept of global health domestically and internationally. In this article, various foreign experts 'views and domestic experts' opinions about the concept of global health are collected and solicited, in order to generalize appropriate Chinese definition of global health of China.

  6. A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick H; Christensen, Per

    2013-09-01

    The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP(100)), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) to net saving of 670 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of MSWM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. NGDC/WDS Global Historical Tsunami Database, 2100 BC to present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Tsunami Database provides information on over 2,400 tsunamis from 2100 BC to the present in the the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans; and...

  8. LBA Regional Global Historical Climatology Network, V. 1, 1832-1990

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set consists of a subset of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) Version 1 database for the study area of the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere...

  9. SAFARI 2000 Global Historical Climatology Network, V. 2, 1990-2001

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set consists of a southern Africa subset of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) Version 2 database. All stations with the following bounding...

  10. Monthly Summaries of the Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-D)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly Summaries of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)-Daily is a dataset derived from GHCN-Daily. The data are produced by computing simple averages or...

  11. Globalization and Religion in Historical Perspective: A Paradoxical Relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke M. Herrington

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Religion has long been a driving force in the process of globalization. This idea is not controversial or novel thinking, nor is it meant to be. However, the dominant reasoning on the subject of globalization, expressed by authors like Thomas Friedman, places economics at the center of analysis, skewing focus from the ideational factors at work in this process. By expanding the definition of globalization to accommodate ideational factors and cultural exchange, religion’s agency in the process can be enabled. Interestingly, the story of religion and globalization is in some ways the history of globalization, but it is riddled with paradoxes, including the agent-opponent paradox, the subject of this article. Religion and globalization have a co-constitutive relationship, but religious actors are both agents of globalization and principals in its backlash. While some actors might benefit from a mutually reinforcing relationship with globalization, others are marginalized in some way or another, so it is necessary to expose the links and wedges that allow for such a paradox. To that end, the concepts of globalization and religious actors must be defined, and the history of the agent-opponent paradox, from the Buddhists of the Silk Road to the Jubilee campaign of 2000, must be elucidated.

  12. Teaching the Impact of Globalization through Historical Archaeology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Marilyn C.

    Historical archaeology has evolved from an early preoccupation with famous houses and forts to a study of capitalism around the world. Archaeologists study the cultures and interrelationships of the colonizers and the colonized as they negotiated their places in an ever-expanding world system. Recent studies in South Africa, Latin America, and the…

  13. Global Transfer and Indian Management A Historical Hybridity Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Becker-Ritterspach, Florian; Raaijman, Tico

    The goal of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of Indian management and to challenge more generally ahistorical and essentialist notions of indigenous management perspectives. Drawing selectively on postcolonial theory, we suggest that a historical hybridity perspective serves as

  14. Global biogeophysical interactions between historical deforestation and climate through land surface albedo and interactive ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ye

    2017-02-01

    Deforestation is expanding and accelerating into the remaining areas of undisturbed forest, and the quality of the remaining forests is declining today. Assessing the climatic impacts of deforestation can help to rectify this alarming situation. In this paper, how historical deforestation may affect global climate through interactive ocean and surface albedo is examined using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). Control and anomaly integrations are performed for 1000 years. In the anomaly case, cropland is significantly expanded since AD 1700. The response of climate in deforested areas is not uniform between the regions. In the background of a global cooling of 0.08 °C occurring with cooler surface air above 0.4 °C across 30° N to 75° N from March to September, the surface albedo increase has a global cooling effect in response to global-scale replacement of forests by cropland, especially over northern mid-high latitudes. The northern mid-latitude (30° N-60° N) suffers a prominent cooling in June, suggesting that this area is most sensitive to cropland expansion through surface albedo. Most regions show a consistent trend between the overall cooling in response to historical deforestation and its resulting cooling due to surface albedo anomaly. Furthermore, the effect of the interactive ocean on shaping the climate response to deforestation is greater than that of prescribed SSTs in most years with a maximum spread of 0.05 °C. This difference is more prominent after year 1800 than that before due to the more marked deforestation. These findings show the importance of the land cover change and the land surface albedo, stressing the necessity to analyze other biogeophysical processes of deforestation using interactive ocean.

  15. Globalization and its effect on Okun-Yoruba: an ethno-historical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The “world society” which globalization portends has both multifactorial and multifaceted underpinnings for African historiography. The issues of international free trade, integrated globalized economy, multinational trade agreements, universalized nancial markets and world-wide social relations have historical relevance, ...

  16. Old maps online: enabling global access to historical mapping

    OpenAIRE

    Southall, Humphrey; Pridal, P.

    2012-01-01

    Over the last thirty years, map libraries worldwide have scanned some hundreds of thousands of historical maps from their collections, and most are viewable online via the world-wide web. However, maps remain difficult to access because they are individually hard to find: a user needing a map of a given location needs to know which library or libraries to search, and library search interfaces generally require knowledge of map titles: there has been no “Google for old maps”. We review previou...

  17. Historical ecology: using unconventional data sources to test for effects of global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vellend, Mark; Brown, Carissa D; Kharouba, Heather M; McCune, Jenny L; Myers-Smith, Isla H

    2013-07-01

    Predicting the future ecological impact of global change drivers requires understanding how these same drivers have acted in the past to produce the plant populations and communities we see today. Historical ecological data sources have made contributions of central importance to global change biology, but remain outside the toolkit of most ecologists. Here we review the strengths and weaknesses of four unconventional sources of historical ecological data: land survey records, "legacy" vegetation data, historical maps and photographs, and herbarium specimens. We discuss recent contributions made using these data sources to understanding the impacts of habitat disturbance and climate change on plant populations and communities, and the duration of extinction-colonization time lags in response to landscape change. Historical data frequently support inferences made using conventional ecological studies (e.g., increases in warm-adapted species as temperature rises), but there are cases when the addition of different data sources leads to different conclusions (e.g., temporal vegetation change not as predicted by chronosequence studies). The explicit combination of historical and contemporary data sources is an especially powerful approach for unraveling long-term consequences of multiple drivers of global change. Despite the limitations of historical data, which include spotty and potentially biased spatial and temporal coverage, they often represent the only means of characterizing ecological phenomena in the past and have proven indispensable for characterizing the nature, magnitude, and generality of global change impacts on plant populations and communities.

  18. Assessing historical fish community composition using surveys, historical collection data, and species distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Labay

    Full Text Available Accurate establishment of baseline conditions is critical to successful management and habitat restoration. We demonstrate the ability to robustly estimate historical fish community composition and assess the current status of the urbanized Barton Creek watershed in central Texas, U.S.A. Fish species were surveyed in 2008 and the resulting data compared to three sources of fish occurrence information: (i historical records from a museum specimen database and literature searches; (ii a nearly identical survey conducted 15 years earlier; and (iii a modeled historical community constructed with species distribution models (SDMs. This holistic approach, and especially the application of SDMs, allowed us to discover that the fish community in Barton Creek was more diverse than the historical data and survey methods alone indicated. Sixteen native species with high modeled probability of occurrence within the watershed were not found in the 2008 survey, seven of these were not found in either survey or in any of the historical collection records. Our approach allowed us to more rigorously establish the true baseline for the pre-development fish fauna and then to more accurately assess trends and develop hypotheses regarding factors driving current fish community composition to better inform management decisions and future restoration efforts. Smaller, urbanized freshwater systems, like Barton Creek, typically have a relatively poor historical biodiversity inventory coupled with long histories of alteration, and thus there is a propensity for land managers and researchers to apply inaccurate baseline standards. Our methods provide a way around that limitation by using SDMs derived from larger and richer biodiversity databases of a broader geographic scope. Broadly applied, we propose that this technique has potential to overcome limitations of popular bioassessment metrics (e.g., IBI to become a versatile and robust management tool for determining

  19. Estimating historical anthropogenic global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850-1990

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefohn, Allen S.; Husar, Janja D.; Husar, Rudolf B.

    It is important to establish a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time when assessing the possible effects of global change and acid rain. This study developed a database of annual estimates of national sulfur emissions from 1850 to 1990. A common methodology was applied across all years and countries allowing for global totals to be produced by adding estimates from all countries. The consistent approach facilitates the modification of the database and the observation of changes at national, regional, or global levels. The emission estimates were based on net production (i.e., production plus imports minus exports), sulfur content, and sulfur retention for each country's production activities. Because the emission estimates were based on the above considerations, our database offers an opportunity to independently compare our results with those estimates based on individual country estimates. Fine temporal resolution clearly shows emission changes associated with specific historical events (e.g., wars, depressions, etc.) on a regional, national, or global basis. The spatial pattern of emissions shows that the US, the USSR, and China were the main sulfur emitters (i.e., approximately 50% of the total) in the world in 1990. The USSR and the US appear to have stabilized their sulfur emissions over the past 20 yr, and the recent increases in global sulfur emissions are linked to the rapid increases in emissions from China. Sulfur emissions have been reduced in some cases by switching from high- to low-sulfur coals. Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) has apparently made important contributions to emission reductions in only a few countries, such as Germany.

  20. Neuropsychological Assessment and Rehabilitation: Historical Development and Current Perspectives

    OpenAIRE

    Amer Cavalheiro Hamdan; Ana Paula Almeida de Pereira; Tatiana Izabele Jaworski de Sá Riechi

    2011-01-01

    The present paper aimed to briefly present a historical view of Neuropsychology and later, to propose research topics in Brazil. Neuropsychology history encompassed at least three major themes: the cardiac hypothesis versus the brain hypothesis, localizationism versus holism and functionalism versus cognitivism. These themes influenced research in neuropsychology and based current practice. Furthermore, two important aspects of neuropsychology are discussed: neuropsychological assessment in d...

  1. Historical approach of contemporary understanding of school in globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parlić-Božović Jasna Lj.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Intercultural education respects and promotes diversity in all areas of human life. This phenomenon indicates that people naturally and spontaneously develop different lifestyles, different customs and worldviews. These differences need to be considered as a wealth of life. When we talk about education, and school as a narrow concept, in which the differences are usually promoted, we have a vision of a community that provides equal opportunities, opposes injustice and discrimination, and strives for the values which equality is being built on. Especially, this phenomenon is being pointed out in our conditions, when we are still adapting to the reforms of globalization. In the Contemporary World, promoting the democracy becomes a key goal of education, as well as the whole society. Therefore, in the education system it should be taken into account the multicultural character of the society that tends to actively contribute to a peaceful coexistence and positive interaction between different cultural groups. Traditionally, in this sense, there are two approaches in education: multi­cultural education that strives to provide the acceptance and tolerance of other cultures through learning about them. On the other side, we have the intercultural education that aims to overcome the passive coexistence and achieve developed and sustainable way of living together in a multicultural society. This is achieved through the construcive process of understanding, mutual respect and dialogue among groups of different cultures, then, ensuring equal opportunities and combating discrimination.

  2. CERN in a historic Global Web-cast

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    On Thursday 1st December, CERN will be involved in 'Beyond Einstein', a 12-hour live world-wide web-cast, which will feature participants from across the globe, marking the World Year of Physics. CERN goes global: the 12-hour web-cast will unite different world timezones by means of the web. Viewers on the web will be able to tune into one of the most extensive videoconference in the world to learn more about Einstein's physics and how it continues to influence cutting-edge research worldwide. The event kicks off at midday (CET) with a live presentation at CERN's Globe of Science and Innovation, featuring a symbolic link-up with the New Library of Alexandria in Egypt. There will then be transmissions from a host of research institutions, such as Imperial College, Fermilab and SLAC. There will also be live connections with Jerusalem, Taipei, San Francisco, Tasmania and even Antarctica. 'Connections will be established among virtually all the time zones on Earth, a perfect way to celebrate Einstein, who rev...

  3. The value of paediatric assessment in historic child sexual abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Jilaihawi, Sarah; Borg, Kevin; Maguire, Sabine; Hodes, Deborah

    2017-06-01

    A perception exists that there are few benefits of a paediatric assessment in historic child sexual abuse (CSA), as the likelihood of finding forensic evidence is low. To determine the value of a comprehensive paediatric assessment in a dedicated clinic for children and young people who present following suspicion or allegation of historic CSA. All children with suspected or alleged historic CSA, defined as >7 days after the last episode of sexual assault in pubertal girls, or >3 days for prepubertal girls and all boys, were assessed in a specialised paediatric clinic. Clinic data were collected prospectively between October 2009 and November 2014 and through retrospective case note review. Among the 249 children who presented with possible historic CSA, ages ranged from 0 to 17 years (median 7, SD 4.3). Of these children, 141 (57%) had a medical concern(s) related to the referral reason, 78 (31%) had an unrelated medical concern(s) and 55 (22%) had emotional or behavioural concerns requiring onward referral, while 18 (7%) children had physical signs supportive of CSA. Findings referable to social care were identified in 26 cases (10%), the police in 6 cases and 15 (6%) parents required professional help for anxiety symptoms. This study highlights the value of a comprehensive paediatric assessment in a dedicated clinic for cases of suspected or alleged historic CSA, by identifying a broad variety of unmet health needs in this group. The findings have important implications for the child, their families and the multiagency team. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  4. Assessing and Valuing Historical Geospatial Data for Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylak-Glassman, E.; Gallo, J.

    2016-12-01

    We will present a method for assessing the use and valuation of historical geospatial data and information products derived from Earth observations (EO). Historical data is widely used in the establishment of baseline reference cases, time-series analysis, and Earth system modeling. Historical geospatial data is used in diverse application areas, such as risk assessment in the insurance and reinsurance industry, disaster preparedness and response planning, historical demography, land-use change analysis, and paleoclimate research, among others. Establishing the current value of previously collected data, often from EO systems that are no longer operating, is difficult since the costs associated with their preservation, maintenance, and dissemination are current, while the costs associated with their original collection are sunk. Understanding their current use and value can aid in funding decisions about the data management infrastructure and workforce allocation required to maintain their availability. Using a value-tree framework to trace the application of data from EO systems, sensors, networks, and surveys, to weighted key Federal objectives, we are able to estimate relative contribution of individual EO systems, sensors, networks, and surveys to meeting those objectives. The analysis relies on a modified Delphi method to elicit relative levels of reliance on individual EO data inputs, including historical data, from subject matter experts. This results in the identification of a representative portfolio of all EO data used to meet key Federal objectives. Because historical data is collected in conjunction with all other EO data within a weighted framework, its contribution to meeting key Federal objectives can be specifically identified and evaluated in relationship to other EO data. The results of this method could be applied better understanding and projecting the long-term value of data from current and future EO systems.

  5. The future of the oceans past: towards a global marine historical research initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwerdtner Máñez, Kathleen; Holm, Poul; Blight, Louise; Coll, Marta; MacDiarmid, Alison; Ojaveer, Henn; Poulsen, Bo; Tull, Malcolm

    2014-01-01

    Historical research is playing an increasingly important role in marine sciences. Historical data are also used in policy making and marine resource management, and have helped to address the issue of shifting baselines for numerous species and ecosystems. Although many important research questions still remain unanswered, tremendous developments in conceptual and methodological approaches are expected to contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the global history of human interactions with life in the seas. Based on our experiences and knowledge from the "History of Marine Animal Populations" project, this paper identifies the emerging research topics for future historical marine research. It elaborates on concepts and tools which are expected to play a major role in answering these questions, and identifies geographical regions which deserve future attention from marine environmental historians and historical ecologists.

  6. Exploring Local to Global Leadership Education Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, John P.

    2012-01-01

    From individual student learning outcomes to full-scale program enhancement, assessment is critical in developing and sustaining leadership education. This chapter will look at assessment techniques and trends spanning from local to global frameworks. International Leadership Association overarching Outcomes and Assessment Guiding Question: "What…

  7. Science and Society: Public History in the Context of Historical Culture of the Globalization Era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorina P. Repina

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the XIX century known as the „historical age”, a high degree of trust to history and social prestige of historical science relied on the entrenched in public consciousness the idea of continuity of historical development of a human civilization and, respectively, of the unique opportunities of the use of the past experience as a means to solve the problems of the present and to build „the bright future”. But the understanding of the dramatic experi-ence of the XX century undermined the belief in the “use of history”, and this situation has been greatly aggravated with intensification of the processes of globalization on the bor-der of XX and XXI centuries. The problems of interaction between “academic (professional history” and the wide public in the concrete societies and the changes in their relations in the context of deep social transformations proved to take place at the center of many re-searchers’ attention. Public history is purposefully overcoming the typical for historical science of the XX century alienation from „the uninitiated”; it strives to restore the interest of the consumer to the historians’ production, to propagate professional standards, histor-ical knowledge and proper understanding of the specific character of “historian’s craft” among the wide circles of the non-professionals.

  8. Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

    2010-01-01

    NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

  9. Global Threat Assessment in 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohan Gunaratna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available 2009 será un año que se distinga por el aumento de la principal amenaza a la seguridad nacional, el terrorismo: Fenómenos de emulación de Al-Qaeda, inestabilidad en Irak a medida que las tropas de la Coalición se van retirando, la persistente amenaza en Afganistán y Pakistán y la extensión del terrorismo tanto en el Sur Global como en los países occidentales a causa de la radicalización de las diásporas musulmanas, son presagios nada halagüeños para el año que se avecina. Si desde un punto de vista táctico la intervención en Afganistán puede haber debilitado al terrorismo, desde un punto de vista estratégico la refuerza, especialmente tras la invasión de Irak, con el aumento del atractivo por la Yihad; el efecto del retorno de las “guerrillas” islamistas a sus países de origen desde los frentes iraquí y afgano puede ser devastador. Aunque los EEUU se encuentren más protegidos que antes del 11-S, sus aliados más vulnerables (en particular en el Sur Global en las regiones del Levante, Este/Cuerno de África y el Sur de Asia sufrirán una mayor amenaza por todos los grupos que adopten las tácticas de una Al-Qaeda transformada ahora en eje de entrenamiento y coordinación desde su cobijo en las FATA en Pakistán. Pero la solución, más allá de atacar el terrorismo, consiste en luchar contra el extremismo y la percepción de Occidente como anti-musulmán: Solucionar el caos de Irak, el conflicto de Palestina y otros conflictos locales como Cachemira o Mindanao se torna esencial y habrá de ser el gran desafío de la administración entrante de Obama.

  10. Microtremors for seismic response assessments of important modern and historical structures of Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margarita, Moisidi; Filippos, Vallianatos

    2017-12-01

    Strengthening seismic risk resilience undertaken by the civil protection authorities is an important issue towards to the guidelines given by Sendai Framework, 2013 European Union Civil Protection legislation and the global agenda 2030 for sustainable development. Moreover, in recent years it has been emphasized that site effect specifications are important issues for the seismic hazard assessments of modern, historical and monumental structures. This study assess the frequencies of vibration of historical, monumental and modern structures in the cities of Chania, Rethymno and Heraklion of Crete using ambient noise recordings processed through the Horizontal to Vertical spectral ratio and examines potential soil-structure interaction phenomena. Examples of the seismic response of high rise structures such as a church bell tower and the lighthouses in Chania are presented.

  11. Assessment of air quality in Sept-Iles : global analysis of the situation derived from historical data and a measurement campaign conducted in 2009; Evaluation de la qualite de l'air a Sept-Iles : analyse global de la situation a partir de donnees historiques et d'une campagne de mesures effectuee en 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Couture, Y.; Grimard, Y.; Walsh, P.; Boulet, G.; Busque, D.; Hotton, J. [Quebec Ministere du Developpement durable, de l' Environnement et des Parcs, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Direction du suivi de l' etat de l' environnement; Gaudrault, A.; Renaud, M. [Quebec Ministere du Developpement durable, de l' Environnement et des Parcs, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Direction regionale de l' analyse et de l' expertise de la Cote-Nord; Richoz, D.; Tremblay, G. [Quebec Ministere du Developpement durable, de l' Environnement et des Parcs, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Centre d' expertise en analyse environnementale du Quebec

    2010-06-15

    This report presented a global analysis of air quality in Sept-Iles, Quebec. It was based on historical data as well as data derived from a 2009 air quality site characterization study. The industrial activity in Sept-Iles includes mining and metallurgy which can affect regional air quality. The analysis showed that on an annual basis, air quality in Sept-Iles is comparable to urban or suburban areas. However, for short periods of 12 hours or less, concentrations of particulates can be very high. The potential pollution sources include industrial emissions, wood burning emissions and exhaust gases from motor vehicle traffic. Atmospheric dispersion modeling provided ambient air measurement data for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emissions; benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) concentrations; dust; and odours. Sufficient data was gathered to present a complete report on air quality. The report showed that the Iron Ore Company (IOC) is a potential source of pollution and that mitigation measures are needed. This document also described the standards used to determine air quality and to minimize the effects on ecosystems and public health. 15 refs., 16 tabs., 11 figs.

  12. Economists, capitalists, and the making of globalization: North American free trade in comparative-historical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbrother, Malcolm

    2014-03-01

    Why did globalization happen? Current explanations point to a variety of conditions under which states have made the free market policy changes driving international economic integration since the 1980s. Such accounts disagree, however, about the key actors involved. This article provides a reconciliation, showing how two different combinations of actors, and two different political economic pathways, have led to globalization in recent decades. In developed countries, mobilization by business has been central; elsewhere, technocrats both constrained and empowered by international finance have pursued globalization more independently of business. In both contexts, economists' technical authority has helped legitimate liberalization, despite the limited diffusion of their ideas. The article validates and elaborates this model using a comparative-historical study of how the United States, Canada, and Mexico proposed, negotiated, and ratified agreements for free trade in North America.

  13. Patient-generated subjective global assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dr Harriët Jager-Wittenaar; Martine J. Sealy; Suzanne Kasenic; Elizabeth Isenring; Faith D. Ottery; Susan P. DeBolt

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), including the PG-SGA Short Form (SF, aka ‘abridged’), was originally developed in the mid 1990’s as a scored, patient self-report, paperbased instrument and has been widely validated. The PG-SGA (SF) has been used for screening,

  14. Global assessment of internal audit competence

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    experience requirements, is the formal globally recognised assessment of competence for internal auditors (IIA ... 2012, a majority of 94.8% of South African leaders indicated that the new three-part. CIA qualification did not .... skills or traits needed to perform a job or task (IFAC 2014); mostly linked to a specific profession or ...

  15. Beyond offshoring: assess your company's global potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Diana

    2004-12-01

    In the past few years, companies have become aware that they can slash costs by offshoring: moving jobs to lower-wage locations. But this practice is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how globalization can transform industries, according to research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). The institute's yearlong study suggests that by streamlining their production processes and supply chains globally, rather than just nationally or regionally, companies can lower their costs-as we've seen in the consumer-electronics and PC industries. Companies can save as much as 70% of their total costs through globalization--50% from offshoring, 5% from training and business-task redesign, and 15% from process improvements. But they don't have to stop there. The cost reductions make it possible to lower prices and expand into new markets, attracting whole new classes of customers. To date, however, few businesses have recognized the full scope of performance improvements that globalization makes possible, much less developed sound strategies for capturing those opportunities. In this article, Diana Farrell, director of MGI, offers a step-by-step approach to doing both things. Among her suggestions: Assess where your industry falls along the globalization spectrum, because not all sectors of the economy face the same challenges and opportunities at the same time. Also, pay attention to production, regulatory, and organizational barriers to globalization. If any of these can be changed, size up the cost-saving (and revenue-generating) opportunities that will emerge for your company as a result of those changes. Farrell also defines the five stages of globalization-market entry, product specialization, value chain disaggregation, value chain reengineering, and the creation of new markets-and notes the different levers for cutting costs and creating value that companies can use in each phase.

  16. Global Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Level Rise Estimation with Optimal Historical Time Lag Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa M. Aral

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of global temperatures and sea level rise (SLR is important for sustainable development planning of coastal regions of the world and the health and safety of communities living in these regions. In this study, climate change effects on sea level rise is investigated using a dynamic system model (DSM with time lag on historical input data. A time-invariant (TI-DSM and time-variant dynamic system model (TV-DSM with time lag is developed to predict global temperatures and SLR in the 21st century. The proposed model is an extension of the DSM developed by the authors. The proposed model includes the effect of temperature and sea level states of several previous years on the current temperature and sea level over stationary and also moving scale time periods. The optimal time lag period used in the model is determined by minimizing a synthetic performance index comprised of the root mean square error and coefficient of determination which is a measure for the reliability of the predictions. Historical records of global temperature and sea level from 1880 to 2001 are used to calibrate the model. The optimal time lag is determined to be eight years, based on the performance measures. The calibrated model was then used to predict the global temperature and sea levels in the 21st century using a fixed time lag period and moving scale time lag periods. To evaluate the adverse effect of greenhouse gas emissions on SLR, the proposed model was also uncoupled to project the SLR based on global temperatures that are obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC emission scenarios. The projected SLR estimates for the 21st century are presented comparatively with the predictions made in previous studies.

  17. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  18. PIRACY REGULATION AND THE FILIPINO’S HISTORICAL RESPONSE TO GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolando B. Tolentino

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The essay examines the racial discourse of Moros and Moro-profiling by the state in piracy—sea piracy in olden times and media piracy in contemporary times. Moro piracy becomes a local cosmopolitanism in the Philippines’ attempt to integrate in various eras of global capitalism. From the analysis of media piracy, the Moro “dibidi” (pirated DVD seller becomes the body that mediates between the Filipinos’ middle-class fantasy of a branded lifestyle and the reality that most Filipinos do not have full access to global consumerism. Using a cultural studies framework, the essay draws a connection between seemingly unlinked events and sources, allowing for a historical and social dialog, past and present, to mix, creating junctures for sites of dialog and critique.

  19. Global mineral resource assessment: porphyry copper assessment of Mexico: Chapter A in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Robinson,, Gilpin R.; Ludington, Steve; Gray, Floyd; Drenth, Benjamin J.; Cendejas-Cruz, Francisco; Espinosa, Enrique; Pérez-Segura, Efrén; Valencia-Moreno, Martín; Rodríguez-Castañeda, José Luis; Vásquez-Mendoza, Rigobert; Zürcher, Lukas

    2010-01-01

    Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about distributions of mineral deposits in the Earth’s crust. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources in porphyry copper deposits in Mexico was done as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within 1 km of the surface at a scale of 1:1,000,000; (2) provide a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered deposits for each permissive tract. The assessment was conducted using a three-part form of mineral resource assessment based on mineral deposit models (Singer, 1993). Delineation of permissive tracts primarily was based on distributions of mapped igneous rocks related to magmatic arcs that formed in tectonic settings associated with subduction boundary zones. Using a GIS, map units were selected from digital geologic maps based on lithology and age to delineate twelve permissive tracts associated with Jurassic, Laramide (~90 to 34 Ma), and younger Tertiary magmatic arcs. Stream-sediment geochemistry, mapped alteration, regional aeromagnetic data, and exploration history were considered in conjunction with descriptive deposit models and grade and tonnage models to guide estimates.

  20. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T.B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Patwardhan, A.; Gomez-Echeverri, L. (eds.)

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  1. Assessing a Historically Hispanic Serving Institution Internationalization Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Iuspa

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a qualitative study conducted at a Historically Hispanic Serving Institution (HHSI to further the understanding of its internationalization decision-making process. The study uses the Internationalization Cube model to review the institution’s internal processes and policies toward internationalization and assess how its international activities align with its internationalization efforts. The Internationalization Cube, an eight-cell model, permits the positioning of Institutions of Higher Education (IHEs based on the analysis of its three dimensions and respective subcategories: policy, support, and implementation. The International Dimension Index (IDI and the Item Relevancy Index (IRI were also used to determine the level of alignment between the HHSI position on the Internationalization Cube and its international activities. The study finds that the HHSI is on Position 6 on the Internationalization Cube (priority policy, one-sided support, and systematic/structure implementation, and exhibits all the international activities considered indicators of internationalization but attention is needed to foreign language, international students, study abroad, faculty movement and involvement in international projects. The study concludes that an association exists between the institution’s position on the Internationalization Cube and its international activities, and adjustments in the institution’s policy, support, and implementation dimensions will be required to advance its position on the Internationalization Cube making its internationalization process more sustainable. This study makes a contribution to addressing the need to assess an IHE by presenting a holistic organizational framework instead of a fragmented international activities organizational analysis.

  2. From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porkka, Miina; Kummu, Matti; Siebert, Stefan; Varis, Olli

    2013-01-01

    Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965-2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d) has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (food (>15% of dietary energy supply) increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d) has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.

  3. From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miina Porkka

    Full Text Available Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965-2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (15% of dietary energy supply increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.

  4. How to Quantify Human-environment Interactions in the Past: A Global Historical Land Use Data Set for the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein Goldewijk, K.

    2015-12-01

    Land use plays an important role in the climate system. Many ecosystem processes are directly or indirectly climate driven, and together with human driven land use changes, they determine how the land surface will evolve through time. To assess the effects of land cover changes on the climate system, models are required which are capable of simulating interactions between the involved components of the Earth system. Since driving forces for global environmental change differ among regions, a geographically (spatially) explicit modeling approach is called for, so that it can be incorporated in global and regional (climate and/or biophysical) change models in order to enhance our understanding of the underlying processes and thus improving future projections.Some researchers suggest that mankind has shifted from living in the Holocene (~emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (~humans capable of changing the Earth' atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land use changes (e.g. the Black Plague in the 14th century and the aftermath of the Colombian Exchange in the 16th century), some believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time. There are still many uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge about the importance of land use (change) in the global biogeochemical cycle, and it is crucial that researchers from other disciplines are involved in decreasing the uncertainties.Thus, integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleo-environmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. Here I present a tool for such long term global change studies; it is the latest update (v 3.2) of the History Database of the Global

  5. Accuracy Assessment Points for Friendship Hill National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — Location of thematic accuracy assessment sampling points used in the vegetation classification and mapping of Friendship Hill National Historic Site.

  6. Exploring Formative Assessment Using Cultural Historical Activity Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandy Asghar

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Formative assessment is a pedagogic practice that has been the subject of much research and debate, as to how it can be used most effectively to deliver enhanced student learning in the higher education setting. Often described as a complex concept it embraces activities that range from facilitating students understanding of assessment standards, to providing formative feedback on their work; from very informal opportunities of engaging in conversations, to the very formal process of submitting drafts of work. This study aims to show how cultural historical activity theory can be used as a qualitative analysis framework to explore the complexities of formative assessment as it is used in higher education. The original data for the research was collected in 2008 by semi structured interviews and analysed using a hermeneutic phenomenological approach. For this present paper three selected transcripts were re-examined, using a case study approach that sought to understand and compare the perceptions of five academic staff, from three distinct subject areas taught within a UK university. It is proposed that using activity theory can provide insight into the complexity of such experiences, about what teachers do and why, and the influence of the community in which they are situated. Individually the cases from each subject area were analysed using activity theory exploring how the mediating artefacts of formative assessment were used; the often implicit rules that governed their use and the roles of teachers and students within the local subject community. The analysis also considered the influence each aspect of the unit of activity had on the other in understanding formative assessment practice. Subsequently the three subject cases were compared and contrasted. The findings illuminate a variety of practices, including how students and staff engage together in formative assessment activities and for some, how dialogue is used as one of the key tools

  7. Assessment of global water security: moving beyond water scarcity assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Gain, A. K.; Giupponi, C.

    2015-12-01

    Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies, and the ecosystems on which we depend. Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Hence, ensuring water security along with energy and food securities has been recognised as priority goals in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the United Nations. This water security is not rooted only in the limitation of physical resources, i.e. the shortage in the availability of freshwater relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. flawed water planning and management approaches, institutional incapability to provide water services, unsustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for assessment of global water scarcity. However, integrating both physical and socio-economic indicators assessment of water security at global level is not available yet. In this study, we present the first global understanding of water security using a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework that goes beyond available water scarcity assessment. For assessing water security at global scale, the term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The Water security index is calculated by aggregating the indicators using both simple additive weighting (SAW) and ordered weighted average (OWA).

  8. The United Nations and Global Public Goods: Historical Contributions and Future Challenges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce Jenks

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Published by Palgrave MacmillanThis chapter explores the thesis that the United Nations’ (UN most important contribution to the production of global public goods has been its role in creating the space and capacity to generate shared values. Starting with the UN Charter itself, the chapter traces the evolution of this contribution through different historical phases. It analyses the impact of globalisation on the role of the UN; in particular it identifies the quality of porousness as a product of globalisation which is critical to understanding the current challenges faced by the UN as well as central to the global public goods agenda. Through this lens the author briefly reviews the evolution of the UN’s role in the fields of peace and security, human rights and development cooperation. He concludes by identifying eight levers for change that will determine the UN’s ability to contribute significantly to the global public goods: the generation of norms and shared values, the quality of leadership, improved governance, innovative financing, institutional realignment, the further consolidation of legal instruments, focus, and the power of networks.

  9. Golden Relics & Historical Standards: How the OECD is Expanding Global Education Governance through PISA for Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addey, Camilla

    2017-01-01

    Setting this paper against the backdrop of scholarly research on recent changes in the OECD's approach and workings in education, I analyse how the OECD has reinforced its infrastructural and epistemological global governance through the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) for Development (PISA-D). Drawing on qualitative data,…

  10. Stem cell engineering a WTEC global assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Loring, Jeanne; McDevitt, Todd; Palecek, Sean; Schaffer, David; Zandstra, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book describes a global assessment of stem cell engineering research, achieved through site visits by a panel of experts to leading institutes, followed by dedicated workshops. The assessment made clear that engineers and the engineering approach with its quantitative, system-based thinking can contribute much to the progress of stem cell research and development. The increased need for complex computational models and new, innovative technologies, such as high-throughput screening techniques, organ-on-a-chip models and in vitro tumor models require an increasing involvement of engineers and physical scientists. Additionally, this book will show that although the US is still in a leadership position in stem cell engineering, Asian countries such as Japan, China and Korea, as well as European countries like the UK, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands are rapidly expanding their investments in the field. Strategic partnerships between countries could lead to major advances of the field and scalable expansi...

  11. Exploring the influence of ancient and historic megaherbivore extirpations on the global methane budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Felisa A.; Hammond, John I.; Balk, Meghan A.; Elliott, Scott M.; Lyons, S. Kathleen; Pardi, Melissa I.; Tomé, Catalina P.; Wagner, Peter J.; Westover, Marie L.

    2016-01-01

    Globally, large-bodied wild mammals are in peril. Because "megamammals" have a disproportionate influence on vegetation, trophic interactions, and ecosystem function, declining populations are of considerable conservation concern. However, this is not new; trophic downgrading occurred in the past, including the African rinderpest epizootic of the 1890s, the massive Great Plains bison kill-off in the 1860s, and the terminal Pleistocene extinction of megafauna. Examining the consequences of these earlier events yields insights into contemporary ecosystem function. Here, we focus on changes in methane emissions, produced as a byproduct of enteric fermentation by herbivores. Although methane is ∼200 times less abundant than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the greater efficiency of methane in trapping radiation leads to a significant role in radiative forcing of climate. Using global datasets of late Quaternary mammals, domestic livestock, and human population from the United Nations as well as literature sources, we develop a series of allometric regressions relating mammal body mass to population density and CH4 production, which allows estimation of methane production by wild and domestic herbivores for each historic or ancient time period. We find the extirpation of megaherbivores reduced global enteric emissions between 2.2-69.6 Tg CH4 y-1 during the various time periods, representing a decrease of 0.8-34.8% of the overall inputs to tropospheric input. Our analyses suggest that large-bodied mammals have a greater influence on methane emissions than previously appreciated and, further, that changes in the source pool from herbivores can influence global biogeochemical cycles and, potentially, climate.

  12. Accuracy Assessment Points for Hopewell Furnace National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This shapefile includes the accuracy assessment points used to assess the alliance-level vegetation map of Hopewell Furnace National Historic Site (HOFU) developed...

  13. Accuracy Assessment Points for Valley Forge National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This shapefile includes the accuracy assessment points used to assess the association-level vegetation map of Valley Forge National Historic Park developed by the...

  14. Global Gradients in Vertebrate Diversity Predicted by Historical Area-Productivity Dynamics and Contemporary Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetz, Walter; Fine, Paul V. A.

    2012-01-01

    Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or “evolutionary arenas,” characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients. PMID:22479151

  15. Global approach of mean service satisfaction assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Dooguy Kora

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical expression for mobile service satisfaction assessment has been proposed. Mobile networks users’ satisfaction is a major concern for the operators and regulators. Therefore a certain level of network qualification is required to be offered to consumers by operators thanks to the decisions initiated by the regulation authority. For the assessment of the level of satisfaction, several methodologies and tools (measuring and monitoring have emerged. Ranking in two broad categories, namely the objective and subjective methods, both have advantages as well as disadvantages. This Letter has proposed a unified approach to evaluate more objectively users’ level of satisfaction of a service based on the most common network key performance indicators (KPIs rate following the different methods. This approach's main advantage is that it has taken advantages of the different positive aspects of the existing methods and outperformed their limitations thanks to the introduced concept of global KPI. In addition, the size of samples according to each method has been considered. A mean service satisfaction theoretical expression has been proposed to regulation authority, consumers association and operators as common base of service satisfaction assessment.

  16. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  17. The Army Selected Reserve Dental Readiness System (ASDRS): Historical Overview, Assessment and Recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-28

    Department of Veterans Affairs ( DVA ). 15. SUBJECT TERMS Interoperability, Army Force Generation, Continuum of Care, Operationalization...and Department of Veterans Affairs ( DVA ). THE ARMY SELECTED RESERVE DENTAL READINESS SYSTEM (ASDRS): HISTORICAL OVERVIEW, ASSESSMENT AND...Affairs ( DVA ) could be groundbreaking. Army RC Dental Readiness Importance and Historical Context Dental Readiness is an important enabler for

  18. Modelling assessment of regional groundwater contamination due to historic smelter emissions of heavy metals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grift, B. van der; Griffioen, J.

    2008-01-01

    Historic emissions from ore smelters typically cause regional soil contamination. We developed a modelling approach to assess the impact of such contamination on groundwater and surface water load, coupling unsaturated zone leaching modelling with 3D groundwater transport modelling. Both historic

  19. Global diversification of a tropical plant growth form: environmental correlates and historical contingencies in climbing palms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas L. P. Couvreur

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical rain forests (TRF are the most diverse terrestrial biome on Earth, but the diversification dynamics of their constituent growth forms remain largely unexplored. Climbing plants contribute significantly to species diversity and ecosystem processes in TRF. We investigate the broad-scale patterns and drivers of species richness as well as the diversification history of climbing and non-climbing palms (Arecaceae. We quantify to what extent macroecological diversity patterns are related to contemporary climate, forest canopy height and paleoclimatic changes. We test whether diversification rates are higher for climbing than non-climbing palms and estimate the origin of the climbing habit. Climbers account for 22% of global palm species diversity mostly concentrated in Southeast Asia. Global variation in climbing palm species richness can be partly explained by past and present-day climate and rain forest canopy height, but regional differences in residual species richness after accounting for current and past differences in environment suggest a strong role of historical contingencies in climbing palm diversification. Climbing palms show a higher net diversification rate than non-climbers. Diversification analysis of palms detected a diversification rate increase along the branches leading to the most species-rich clade of climbers. Ancestral character reconstructions revealed that the climbing habit originated between early Eocene and Miocene. These results imply that changes from non-climbing to climbing habit may have played an important role in palm diversification, resulting in the origin of one fifth of all palm species. We suggest that, in addition to current climate and paleoclimatic changes after the late Neogene, present-day diversity of climbing palms can be explained by morpho-anatomical innovations, the biogeographic history of Southeast Asia, and/or ecological opportunities due to the diversification of high

  20. Global diversification of a tropical plant growth form: environmental correlates and historical contingencies in climbing palms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couvreur, Thomas L P; Kissling, W Daniel; Condamine, Fabien L; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Rowe, Nick P; Baker, William J

    2014-01-01

    Tropical rain forests (TRF) are the most diverse terrestrial biome on Earth, but the diversification dynamics of their constituent growth forms remain largely unexplored. Climbing plants contribute significantly to species diversity and ecosystem processes in TRF. We investigate the broad-scale patterns and drivers of species richness as well as the diversification history of climbing and non-climbing palms (Arecaceae). We quantify to what extent macroecological diversity patterns are related to contemporary climate, forest canopy height, and paleoclimatic changes. We test whether diversification rates are higher for climbing than non-climbing palms and estimate the origin of the climbing habit. Climbers account for 22% of global palm species diversity, mostly concentrated in Southeast Asia. Global variation in climbing palm species richness can be partly explained by past and present-day climate and rain forest canopy height, but regional differences in residual species richness after accounting for current and past differences in environment suggest a strong role of historical contingencies in climbing palm diversification. Climbing palms show a higher net diversification rate than non-climbers. Diversification analyses of palms detected a diversification rate increase along the branches leading to the most species-rich clade of climbers. Ancestral character reconstructions revealed that the climbing habit originated between early Eocene and Miocene. These results imply that changes from non-climbing to climbing habits may have played an important role in palm diversification, resulting in the origin of one fifth of all palm species. We suggest that, in addition to current climate and paleoclimatic changes after the late Neogene, present-day diversity of climbing palms can be explained by morpho-anatomical innovations, the biogeographic history of Southeast Asia, and/or ecological opportunities due to the diversification of high-stature dipterocarps in Asian TRFs.

  1. The Historical Perspective of Formation of Offshore Jurisdictions as the Global System of Tax Evasion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Synyutka Nataliya G.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this publication is improving the knowledge about the genesis of formation of offshore jurisdictions. The article characterizes the historical stages of origination of tax havens on the basis of theoretical generalizations and comparing the results of studies and publications on the specified issues. The article identifies the main groups of tax havens: offshores of the colonies of the former British Empire; the European havens; the group of simulators (such as Panama, Uruguay, Dubai, new havens in the countries with transition economy and in African countries. A comprehensive list of offshores in terms of actors by the domestic classification has been provided. The authors suggest, as a timely measures, establishing a coordinated international campaign to counter the aggressive tax planning. For the purpose of stabilization of the internal capital markets, as well as success of the fiscal control, the main directions of the anti-offshore policy have been proposed as follows: unification of the taxation rules for residents and non-residents within the offshore countries; global limitation of the bank secrecy along with transparency of information for the taxation purposes, ensuring transparency of ownership and tracing of end the beneficiaries of assets; changing the model convention for the avoidance of double taxation and the data exchange.

  2. Assessment of Global Functioning in Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Utility of the Developmental Disability-Child Global Assessment Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Susan W.; Smith, Laura A.; Schry, Amie R.

    2014-01-01

    Assessment of global functioning is an important consideration in treatment outcome research; yet, there is little guidance on its evidence-based assessment for children with autism spectrum disorders. This study investigated the utility and validity of clinician-rated global functioning using the Developmental Disability-Child Global Assessment…

  3. Assessment of global flood exposures - developing an appropriate approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Booth, Naomi

    2015-04-01

    Increasingly complex probabilistic catastrophe models have become the standard for quantitative flood risk assessments by re/insurance companies. On the one hand, probabilistic modelling of this nature is extremely useful; a large range of risk metrics can be output. However, they can be time consuming and computationally expensive to develop and run. Levels of uncertainty are persistently high despite, or perhaps because of, attempts to increase resolution and complexity. A cycle of dependency between modelling companies and re/insurers has developed whereby available models are purchased, models run, and both portfolio and model data 'improved' every year. This can lead to potential exposures in perils and territories that are not currently modelled being largely overlooked by companies, who may then face substantial and unexpected losses when large events occur in these areas. We present here an approach to assessing global flood exposures which reduces the scale and complexity of approach used and begins with the identification of hotspots where there is a significant exposure to flood risk. The method comprises four stages: i) compile consistent exposure information, ii) to apply reinsurance terms and conditions to calculate values exposed, iii) to assess the potential hazard using a global set of flood hazard maps, and iv) to identify potential risk 'hotspots' which include considerations of spatially and/or temporally clustered historical events, and local flood defences. This global exposure assessment is designed as a scoping exercise, and reveals areas or cities where the potential for accumulated loss is of significant interest to a reinsurance company, and for which there is no existing catastrophe model. These regions are then candidates for the development of deterministic scenarios, or probabilistic models. The key advantages of this approach will be discussed. These include simplicity and ability of business leaders to understand results, as well as

  4. Accuracy Assessment Points for Colonial National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This shapefile depicts the locations of thematic accuracy assessment sampling points used in the vegetation mapping of Colonial National Historical Park. It was...

  5. Accuracy Assessment Points for Appomattox Court House National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This shapefile depicts the locations of thematic accuracy assessment sampling points used in the vegetation mapping of Appomottox Court House National Historical...

  6. Accuracy Assessment Points for San Antonio Missions National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This metadata is for the 2006 accuracy assessment points (spatial database) created from the sample points collected at San Antonio Missions National Historical Park.

  7. Accuracy Assessment Points for Washita Battlefield National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This metadata is for the 2006 accuracy assessment points (spatial database) created from the sample points collected at Washita Battlefield National Historic Site.

  8. The Adaptation Gap Report. Towards Global Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2017-01-01

    of the temperature goal. The 2017 Adaptation Gap Report, which is the third global Adaptation Gap Report by UN Environment – prepared in collaboration with the Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation – focuses on one of the key questions arising in the wake of the global goal: What are the ways forward...... progress in achieving the global goal on adaptation. In addition, the Paris Agreement contains two other provisions on adaptation that are important in the context of this report: the transparency framework and adaptation communications. These four provisions and the interlinkages between them...

  9. Value and Vulnerability Assessment of a Historic Tomb for Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aykut Erkal

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Monumental tombs reflect various social, cultural, architectural, religious, economic, and engineering features of a community. However, environmental weathering, natural disasters, poor maintenance, vandalism, and misuse unfortunately pose serious threats to these cultural assets. Historic monuments are often exposed to the highest risk due to their vulnerability. The Ottoman-style Nişancı Hamza Paşa tomb located in Karacaahmet Cemetery, Istanbul, the largest and oldest public cemetery in Turkey, is a case in point. The tomb consisting of six granite columns and a brick dome supported by six arches was constructed in 1605. Cracks, material loss, and decay as a result of adverse environmental effects and past earthquakes are evident. Therefore, this paper analyses the overall value of the tomb with respect to its historical, communal, evidential, and aesthetic aspects. Using the finite element approach and data on the tomb’s material properties, a structural analysis under the self-weight and a time history analysis based on the earthquake ground motion data recorded in Duzce, Turkey, in November 1999 were conducted to encourage the conservation of this tomb and similar cultural heritage assets all over the world. The damage observed in the structure is congruent with the analysis results.

  10. Value and vulnerability assessment of a historic tomb for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erkal, Aykut; Ozhan, Hakki O

    2014-01-01

    Monumental tombs reflect various social, cultural, architectural, religious, economic, and engineering features of a community. However, environmental weathering, natural disasters, poor maintenance, vandalism, and misuse unfortunately pose serious threats to these cultural assets. Historic monuments are often exposed to the highest risk due to their vulnerability. The Ottoman-style Nişancı Hamza Paşa tomb located in Karacaahmet Cemetery, Istanbul, the largest and oldest public cemetery in Turkey, is a case in point. The tomb consisting of six granite columns and a brick dome supported by six arches was constructed in 1605. Cracks, material loss, and decay as a result of adverse environmental effects and past earthquakes are evident. Therefore, this paper analyses the overall value of the tomb with respect to its historical, communal, evidential, and aesthetic aspects. Using the finite element approach and data on the tomb's material properties, a structural analysis under the self-weight and a time history analysis based on the earthquake ground motion data recorded in Duzce, Turkey, in November 1999 were conducted to encourage the conservation of this tomb and similar cultural heritage assets all over the world. The damage observed in the structure is congruent with the analysis results.

  11. Value assessment of a global hydrological forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; van Beek, E.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    The inter-annual variability in streamflow presents risks and opportunities in the management of water resources systems. Reliable hydrological forecasts, effective communication and proper response allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. A global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value for these regions. FEWS-World system is developed for this purpose. It is based on the Delft-FEWS (flood early warning system) developed by Deltares and incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value as its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. For the assessment in historical simulation mode a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode the model was forced with ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The results of the preliminary assessment show that although forecasting skill decreases with increasing lead time, the value of forecasts does not necessarily decrease. The forecast requirements and response options of several water related sectors was

  12. Assessment of historical masonry pillars reinforced by CFRP strips

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedele, Roberto; Rosati, Giampaolo; Biolzi, Luigi; Cattaneo, Sara

    2014-10-01

    In this methodological study, the ultimate response of masonry pillars strengthened by externally bonded Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) was investigated. Historical bricks were derived from a XVII century rural building, whilst a high strength mortar was utilized for the joints. The conventional experimental information, concerning the overall reaction force and relative displacements provided by "point" sensors (LVDTs and clip gauge), were herein enriched with no-contact, full-field kinematic measurements provided by 2D Digital Image Correlation (2D DIC). Experimental information were critically compared with prediction provided by an advanced three-dimensional models, based on nonlinear finite elements under the simplifying assumption of perfect adhesion between the reinforcement and the support.

  13. Poseidon's paintbox : historical archives of ocean colour in global-change perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernand, M. R.

    2011-11-01

    In the thesis introduction issues are discussed on the historical background of marine optics and on marine optical devices that were used over the past centuries to observe and measure; as in all sciences, in marine optics we can see a steady development: that of ‘measuring’, beginning many centuries ago, to 'knowing' and since less than a century to the understanding of the phenomenon. Hereafter, six themes are treated successively. The first theme, ‘Ocean optics from 1600 (Hudson) to 1930 (Raman), shift in interpretation of natural water colouring’, addresses the question of why it took so long a time to explain the phenomenon ‘the colouring of the sea’, especially the blue colour, despite the age-long interest of sailors, for practical purposes of navigation and detection of fish - of which more later. The second theme ‘On the history of the Secchi disc’, describes the search to establish methods for the determination of (sea) water clarity concerning purposes of navigation (near coast colour changes) just mentioned to detect shoals, and for a more basic purpose, tracing lost objects. The search to determine the clarity of lakes and seas culminated in the invention of the Secchi disc, used since the late 19th century. The third theme, ‘Spectral analysis of the Forel-Ule ocean colour comparator scale’, addresses the accuracy of a colour scale proposed, used in limnology and oceanography. Scale observations are put into perspective with contemporary measurements on the colour of the sea. The fourth theme, ‘Ocean colour changes in the North Pacific since 1930’, handles the question whether long-term ocean colour changes using historic Forel-Ule observations, in this part of the ocean made very frequently over time, can be determined in relation to global change. In principal global warming may cause a gradual change in ocean colour due to the effect of biological, chemical and physical aspects of the ocean-surface. The fifth theme,

  14. Validation of a subjective global assessment questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carniel, Maiara Pires; Santetti, Daniele; Andrade, Juliana Silveira; Favero, Bianca Penteado; Moschen, Tábata; Campos, Paola Almeida; Goldani, Helena Ayako Sueno; Dornelles, Cristina Toscani Leal

    2015-01-01

    To validate the Subjective Global Nutritional Assessment (SGNA) questionnaire for Brazilian children and adolescents. A cross-sectional study with 242 patients, aged 30 days to 13 years, treated in pediatric units of a tertiary hospital with acute illness and minimum hospitalization of 24h. After permission from the authors of the original study, the following criteria were observed to obtain the validation of SGNA instruments: translation and backtranslation, concurrent validity, predictive validity, and inter-observer reliability. The variables studied were age, sex, weight and length at birth, prematurity, and anthropometry (weight, height, body mass index, upper arm circumference, triceps skinfold, and subscapular skinfold). The primary outcome was considered as the need for admission/readmission within 30 days after hospital discharge. Statistical tests used included ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney, chi-square, and Kappa coefficient. According to SGNA score, 80% of patients were considered as well nourished, 14.5% moderately malnourished, and 5.4% severely malnourished. Concurrent validity showed a weak correlation between the SGNA and anthropometric measurements (p<0.001). Regarding predictive power, the main outcome associated with SGNA was length of admission/readmission. Secondary outcomes associated included the following: length of stay at the unit after SGNA, weight and length at birth, and prematurity (p<0.05). The interobserver reliability showed good agreement among examiners (Kappa=0.74). This study validated the SGNA in this group of hospitalized pediatric patients, ensuring its use in the clinical setting and for research purposes in the Brazilian population. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  15. Historic Context and Building Assessments for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Built Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ullrich, R. A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sullivan, M. A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2007-09-14

    This document was prepared to support u.s. Department of Energy / National Nuclear Security Agency (DOE/NNSA) compliance with Sections 106 and 110 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is a DOE/NNSA laboratory and is engaged in determining the historic status of its properties at both its main site in Livermore, California, and Site 300, its test site located eleven miles from the main site. LLNL contracted with the authors via Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to prepare a historic context statement for properties at both sites and to provide assessments of those properties of potential historic interest. The report contains an extensive historic context statement and the assessments of individual properties and groups of properties determined, via criteria established in the context statement, to be of potential interest. The historic context statement addresses the four contexts within which LLNL falls: Local History, World War II History (WWII), Cold War History, and Post-Cold War History. Appropriate historic preservation themes relevant to LLNL's history are delineated within each context. In addition, thresholds are identified for historic significance within each of the contexts based on the explication and understanding of the Secretary of the Interior's Guidelines for determining eligibility for the National Register of Historic Places. The report identifies specific research areas and events in LLNL's history that are of interest and the portions of the built environment in which they occurred. Based on that discussion, properties of potential interest are identified and assessments of them are provided. Twenty individual buildings and three areas of potential historic interest were assessed. The final recommendation is that, of these, LLNL has five individual historic buildings, two sets of historic objects, and two historic districts eligible for the National Register. All are

  16. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  17. An integrated approach to historical population assessment of the great whales: case of the New Zealand southern right whale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Jennifer A; Carroll, Emma L; Smith, Tim D; Zerbini, Alexandre N; Patenaude, Nathalie J; Baker, C Scott

    2016-03-01

    Accurate estimation of historical abundance provides an essential baseline for judging the recovery of the great whales. This is particularly challenging for whales hunted prior to twentieth century modern whaling, as population-level catch records are often incomplete. Assessments of whale recovery using pre-modern exploitation indices are therefore rare, despite the intensive, global nature of nineteenth century whaling. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) were particularly exploited: slow swimmers with strong fidelity to sheltered calving bays, the species made predictable and easy targets. Here, we present the first integrated population-level assessment of the whaling impact and pre-exploitation abundance of a right whale, the New Zealand southern right whale (E. australis). In this assessment, we use a Bayesian population dynamics model integrating multiple data sources: nineteenth century catches, genetic constraints on bottleneck size and individual sightings histories informing abundance and trend. Different catch allocation scenarios are explored to account for uncertainty in the population's offshore distribution. From a pre-exploitation abundance of 28 800-47 100 whales, nineteenth century hunting reduced the population to approximately 30-40 mature females between 1914 and 1926. Today, it stands at less than 12% of pre-exploitation abundance. Despite the challenges of reconstructing historical catches and population boundaries, conservation efforts of historically exploited species benefit from targets for ecological restoration.

  18. Development of new historical global Nitrogen fertilizer map and the evaluation of their impacts on terrestrial N cycling and the evaluation of their impacts on terrestrial N cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishina, K.; Ito, A.; Hayashi, S.

    2015-12-01

    The use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer was rapidly growing up after the birth of Haber-Bosch process in the early 20th century. The recent N loading derived from these sources on terrestrial ecosystems was estimated 2 times higher than biogenic N fixation in terrestrial ecosystems (Gruber et al., 2009). However, there are still large uncertainties in cumulative N impacts on terrestrial impact at global scale. In this study, to assess historical N impacts at global scale, we made a new global N fertilizer input map, which was a spatial-temporal explicit map (during 1960-2010) and considered the fraction of NH4+ and NO3- in the N fertilizer inputs. With the developed N fertilizer map, we evaluated historical N20 cycling changes by land-use changes and N depositions in N cycling using ecosystem model 'VISIT'. Prior to the downscaling processes for global N fertilizer map, we applied the statistical data imputation to FAOSTAT data due to there existing many missing data especially in developing countries. For the data imputation, we used multiple data imputation method proposed by Honaker & King (2010). The statistics of various types of synthetic fertilizer consumption are available in FAOSTAT, which can be sorted by the content of NH4+ and NO3-, respectively. To downscaling the country by country N fertilizer consumptions data to the 0.5˚x 0.5˚ grid-based map, we used historical land-use map in Earthstat (Rumankutty et al., 1999). Before the assignment of N fertilizer in each grid, we weighted the double cropping regions to be more N fertilizer input on to these regions. Using M3-Crops Data (Monfreda et al., 2008), we picked up the dominant cropping species in each grid cell. After that, we used Crop Calendar in SAGE dataset (Sacks et al., 2010) and determined schedule of N fertilizer input in each grid cell using dominant crop calendar. Base fertilizer was set to be 7 days before transplanting and second fertilizer to be 30 days after base fertilizer application

  19. Development and application of indices using large volcanic databases for a global hazard and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Sarah; Auker, Melanie; Cottrell, Elizabeth; Delgado Granados, Hugo; Loughlin, Sue; Ortiz Guerrero, Natalie; Sparks, Steve; Vye-Brown, Charlotte; Taskforce, Indices

    2015-04-01

    The Global Volcano Model (GVM) and IAVCEI were commissioned by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction to produce a global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk for the Global Assessment Report 2015 (GAR15). This involved presenting both an introduction to volcanology and developing indices to assess hazard and risk on a global scale. To this end two open-access databases were of utmost importance: the Global Volcanism Program's Volcanoes of the World (http://www.volcano.si.edu) and the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions database (LaMEVE; http://www.bgs.ac.uk/vogripa/). Indices were developed to enable a relative global assessment cognisant of data uncertainty and availability to broadly identify how hazard and risk varies around the world, the extent of monitoring and strengths and limitations in knowledge. The accessibility of both physical (e.g. volcano, eruption) and social data is crucial to our understanding of past behaviour, forecasting probable future behaviour and the potential impacts on communities. Such data is regionally highly variable and the eruption record worsens back in time. The Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI) was designed to quantify hazard levels globally, based on the Holocene eruption record. Vulnerability to eruptions was measured using the Population Exposure Index, which weights the population within 100 km of volcanoes by area and historical fatalities. The combination of these indices provides an indicator of population risk at individual volcanoes. The VHI was also combined with the total populations living within 30 km of volcanoes in each country to develop an understanding of the global distribution of volcano threat, and to rank countries by this measure. About half of the historically active volcanoes have insufficient information to adequately calculate VHI and these are highlighted as requiring future research. A database currently in development, GLOVOREMID, collates monitoring data to understand

  20. Democratização da governança global: perspectivas históricas mundiais Democratizing global governance: world historical perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Chase-Dunn

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo examina a controversa noção de democracia global. O texto apresenta uma perspectiva histórica mundial da evolução da governança global - como a estrutura política do sistema-mundo evoluiu ao longo dos últimos séculos - e analisa movimentos sociais contemporâneos que buscam democratizar as instituições de governança global. Argumenta-se que os que desejam democratizar a governança global devem assumir o repto de ajudar a promover a construção de um estado mundial globalmente multilateral para fazer frente aos desafios que se colocarão à humanidade no século 21. Movimentos sociais transnacionais e estados nacionais semiperiféricos progressistas são vistos como os agentes que irão desafiar os poderes constituídos e conduzir a humanidade rumo a uma comunidade global democrática e coletivamente racional nas próximas décadas.This article examines the contested idea of global democracy. It presents a world historical view of the evolution of global governance - how the political structure of the world-system has evolved of over the past several centuries - and it examines contemporary social movements that are seeking to democratize global governance institutions. It is argued that those who want to democratize global governance must take up the problem of helping to further construct a global multilateral world state in order that the challenges that humanity has created for itself may be met in a collectively rational, sustainable and humane manner in the 21st century. Transnational social movements and progressive semiperipheral national-states are seen as the agents that will challenge the powers that be and move humanity closer to a democratic and collectively rational global commonwealth in the next several decades.

  1. Assessment of Eligibility to National Register of Historic Places Building 431 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, M A; Ullrich, R A

    2003-05-07

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) proposes to demolish the original sections of Building 431 at its main site in Livermore, California. As this action will constitute an undertaking within the regulatory constraints of the National Historic Preservation Act, LLNL arranged for an assessment of the building's historic significance. This report provides a brief history of the magnetic fusion energy research activities housed in Building 431 and a historic assessment of the building. The final recommendation of the report is that, although Building 431 housed some significant breakthroughs in accelerator technology and magnetic mirror plasma confinement, it lacks integrity for the periods of significance of those developments. It is, therefore, not eligible to the National Register of Historic Places.

  2. The Historical Perspective of Formation of Offshore Jurisdictions as the Global System of Tax Evasion

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Synyutka Nataliya G; Synyutka Oleg M

    2017-01-01

    .... The article characterizes the historical stages of origination of tax havens on the basis of theoretical generalizations and comparing the results of studies and publications on the specified issues...

  3. Historical Skills in Compulsory Education: Assessment, Inquiry Based Strategies and Students' Argumentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez Carrasco, Cosme J.; Miralles Martínez, Pedro

    2016-01-01

    This paper makes a reflection on the assessment of historical thinking in compulsory education. First, the article reflects on the type of knowledge that is being evaluated (memory or understanding). According to current thinking, assessment should meet the teaching aims set out by the teacher, it should be another means of monitoring and…

  4. 78 FR 35018 - Historic Harrisville, Inc.; Notice of Availability of Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-11

    ... Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Historic Harrisville, Inc.; Notice of Availability of Environmental Assessment In accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 and the Federal Energy Regulatory... an Environmental Assessment (EA). In the EA, Commission staff analyzes the potential environmental...

  5. Using historical photography to monitor and assess threats over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Don. Evans

    2010-01-01

    Analysis of aerial photography is perhaps the best way to assess changes in landcover conditions. In the United States, most national forests have repeat photography on approximately a 10-year cycle. Analysis of this rich photo record can reveal changes in insect damage, fuels buildup, unmanaged off-highway vehicle use, loss of open space, and other land-cover...

  6. A global historical data set of tropical cyclone exposure (TCE-DAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Tobias; Frieler, Katja; Bresch, David N.

    2018-01-01

    Tropical cyclones pose a major risk to societies worldwide, with about 22 million directly affected people and damages of USD 29 billion on average per year over the last 20 years. While data on observed cyclones tracks (location of the center) and wind speeds are publicly available, these data sets do not contain information about the spatial extent of the storm and people or assets exposed. Here, we apply a simplified wind field model to estimate the areas exposed to wind speeds above 34, 64, and 96 knots (kn). Based on available spatially explicit data on population densities and gross domestic product (GDP) we estimate (1) the number of people and (2) the sum of assets exposed to wind speeds above these thresholds accounting for temporal changes in historical distribution of population and assets (TCE-hist) and assuming fixed 2015 patterns (TCE-2015). The associated spatially explicit and aggregated country-event-level exposure data (TCE-DAT) cover the period 1950 to 2015 and are freely available at https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2017.011" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2017.011 (Geiger at al., 2017c). It is considered key information to (1) assess the contribution of climatological versus socioeconomic drivers of changes in exposure to tropical cyclones, (2) estimate changes in vulnerability from the difference in exposure and reported damages and calibrate associated damage functions, and (3) build improved exposure-based predictors to estimate higher-level societal impacts such as long-term effects on GDP, employment, or migration. We validate the adequateness of our methodology by comparing our exposure estimate to estimated exposure obtained from reported wind fields available since 1988 for the United States. We expect that the free availability of the underlying model and TCE-DAT will make research on tropical cyclone risks more accessible to non-experts and stakeholders.

  7. Global ex-situ crop diversity conservation and the Svalbard Global Seed Vault: assessing the current status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westengen, Ola T; Jeppson, Simon; Guarino, Luigi

    2013-01-01

    Ex-situ conservation of crop diversity is a global concern, and the development of an efficient and sustainable conservation system is a historic priority recognized in international law and policy. We assess the completeness of the safety duplication collection in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault with respect to data on the world's ex-situ collections as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Currently, 774,601 samples are deposited at Svalbard by 53 genebanks. We estimate that more than one third of the globally distinct accessions of 156 crop genera stored in genebanks as orthodox seeds are conserved in the Seed Vault. The numbers of safety duplicates of Triticum (wheat), Sorghum (sorghum), Pennisetum (pearl millet), Eleusine (finger millet), Cicer (chickpea) and Lens (lentil) exceed 50% of the estimated numbers of distinct accessions in global ex-situ collections. The number of accessions conserved globally generally reflects importance for food production, but there are significant gaps in the safety collection at Svalbard in some genera of high importance for food security in tropical countries, such as Amaranthus (amaranth), Chenopodium (quinoa), Eragrostis (teff) and Abelmoschus (okra). In the 29 food-crop genera with the largest number of accessions stored globally, an average of 5.5 out of the ten largest collections is already represented in the Seed Vault collection or is covered by existing deposit agreements. The high coverage of ITPGRFA Annex 1 crops and of those crops for which there is a CGIAR mandate in the current Seed Vault collection indicates that existence of international policies and institutions are important determinants for accessions to be safety duplicated at Svalbard. As a back-up site for the global conservation system, the Seed Vault plays not only a practical but also a symbolic role for enhanced integration and cooperation for conservation of crop diversity.

  8. Global ex-situ crop diversity conservation and the Svalbard Global Seed Vault: assessing the current status.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ola T Westengen

    Full Text Available Ex-situ conservation of crop diversity is a global concern, and the development of an efficient and sustainable conservation system is a historic priority recognized in international law and policy. We assess the completeness of the safety duplication collection in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault with respect to data on the world's ex-situ collections as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Currently, 774,601 samples are deposited at Svalbard by 53 genebanks. We estimate that more than one third of the globally distinct accessions of 156 crop genera stored in genebanks as orthodox seeds are conserved in the Seed Vault. The numbers of safety duplicates of Triticum (wheat, Sorghum (sorghum, Pennisetum (pearl millet, Eleusine (finger millet, Cicer (chickpea and Lens (lentil exceed 50% of the estimated numbers of distinct accessions in global ex-situ collections. The number of accessions conserved globally generally reflects importance for food production, but there are significant gaps in the safety collection at Svalbard in some genera of high importance for food security in tropical countries, such as Amaranthus (amaranth, Chenopodium (quinoa, Eragrostis (teff and Abelmoschus (okra. In the 29 food-crop genera with the largest number of accessions stored globally, an average of 5.5 out of the ten largest collections is already represented in the Seed Vault collection or is covered by existing deposit agreements. The high coverage of ITPGRFA Annex 1 crops and of those crops for which there is a CGIAR mandate in the current Seed Vault collection indicates that existence of international policies and institutions are important determinants for accessions to be safety duplicated at Svalbard. As a back-up site for the global conservation system, the Seed Vault plays not only a practical but also a symbolic role for enhanced integration and cooperation for conservation of crop diversity.

  9. Assessing the Global Threat from Zika Virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessler, Justin; Chaisson, Lelia H.; Kucirka, Lauren M.; Bi, Qifang; Grantz, Kyra; Salje, Henrik; Carcelen, Andrea C.; Ott, Cassandra T.; Sheffield, Jeanne S.; Ferguson, Neil M.; Cummings, Derek A.T.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel

    2017-01-01

    First discovered in 1947, Zika virus (ZIKV) infection remained a little known tropical disease until 2015, when its apparent association with a significant increase in the incidence of microcephaly in Brazil raised alarms worldwide. There is limited information on the key factors that determine the extent of the global threat from ZIKV infection and resulting complications. Here, we review what is known about the epidemiology, natural history and public health impact of ZIKV infection; the empirical basis for this knowledge; and the critical knowledge gaps that need to be filled. PMID:27417495

  10. SURVEY METHODS FOR SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL MASONRY BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ballarin

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available On 20th and 29th of May 2012, two powerful earthquakes struck northern Italy. The epicentres were recorded respectively in Finale Emilia (magnitude 5.9 Ml and Medolla (magnitude 5.8 Ml in the province of Modena, though the earthquake was formed by a series of seismic shakes located in the district of the Emilian Po Valley, mainly in the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Mantova, Reggio Emilia, Bologna and Rovigo. Many monuments in the city of Mantova were hit by the earthquake and, among these, Palazzo Ducale with the well-known Castello di San Giorgio which host the noteworthy “Camera degli Sposi”. This building, the most famous of the city, was so damaged that it was closed for more than one year after the earthquake. The emblem of the Palace and Mantova itself, the previously cited “Camera degli Sposi” realized by Andrea Mantegna, was damaged and all the economic and social life of the city was deeply affected. Immediately after the earthquake, the Soprintendenza per i Beni Architettonici e Paesaggistici of Brescia, Cremona and Mantova establish an agreement with the University Iuav of Venice, requiring an analysis and assessment of the damage in order to proceed with the development of an intervention project. This activity turned out to be very important not only from the point of view of the recovery of the architectural and artistic heritage but also because the city's economy is based primarily on tourism. The closure of one of the most important monuments of Mantova has led to a significant and alarming decline in the government income.

  11. Assessment in the global context: From ozone to ecosystems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scholes, B

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This presentation discusses the assessment in the global context: From ozone to ecosystems. Process to evaluate the status of knowledge on complex problems relevant to societies. A key element of the contemporary science-policy interface....

  12. PAGER - Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that estimates the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing...

  13. Disrupting the Master Narrative: Global Politics, Historical Memory, and the Implications for Naturalization Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Daryl M.

    2010-01-01

    Dramatic increases in immigration pose challenges for democratic citizenship education to involve national members with different historical memories and current experiences of national belonging. The article draws on ethnographic research with Laotian refugees, who were the target of U.S. violence during the Vietnam War and later became…

  14. The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vose, R.S. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center; Schmoyer, R.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Steurer, P.M.; Peterson, T.C.; Heim, R.; Karl, T.R. [National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States); Eischeid, J.K. [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences

    1992-07-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the last several years. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, these data sets have been compiled by many different organizations/researchers, making it confusing and time consuming for individual researchers to acquire the ``best`` data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) commenced the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved global base-line data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for a dense network. of worldwide meteorological stations. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global climate data base that can be updated, enhanced, and distributed at regular intervals. The first version of the GHCN data base was completed during the summer of 1992. It contains 6039 temperature, 7533 precipitation, 1883 sea level pressure, and 1873 station pressure stations. All stations have at least 10 years of data, 40% have more than 50 years of data, and 10% have more than 100 years of data. Spatial coverage is good over most of the globe, particularly for the United States and central Europe. In comparison to other major global data sets, dramatic improvements are evident over South America, Africa, and Asia. The GHCN data base is available as a Numeric Data Package (NDP) from CDIAC. The NDP consists of this document and two magnetic tapes that contain machine-readable data files and accompanying retrieval codes. This document describes, in detail, both the GHCN data base and the contents of the magnetic tap

  15. The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vose, R.S. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center); Schmoyer, R.L. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)); Steurer, P.M.; Peterson, T.C.; Heim, R.; Karl, T.R. (National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States)); Eischeid, J.K. (Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences)

    1992-07-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the last several years. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, these data sets have been compiled by many different organizations/researchers, making it confusing and time consuming for individual researchers to acquire the best'' data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) commenced the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved global base-line data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for a dense network. of worldwide meteorological stations. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global climate data base that can be updated, enhanced, and distributed at regular intervals. The first version of the GHCN data base was completed during the summer of 1992. It contains 6039 temperature, 7533 precipitation, 1883 sea level pressure, and 1873 station pressure stations. All stations have at least 10 years of data, 40% have more than 50 years of data, and 10% have more than 100 years of data. Spatial coverage is good over most of the globe, particularly for the United States and central Europe. In comparison to other major global data sets, dramatic improvements are evident over South America, Africa, and Asia. The GHCN data base is available as a Numeric Data Package (NDP) from CDIAC. The NDP consists of this document and two magnetic tapes that contain machine-readable data files and accompanying retrieval codes. This document describes, in detail, both the GHCN data base and the contents of the magnetic tap

  16. Assessing the GDP structure in global comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Palát

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with identifying relationships between the household consumption and the GDP on the selected sample of countries of the world. It provides an analysis of the GDP structure and its development and, on the basis of available statistic data, carries out evaluation of the development of the GDP structure from the point of view of the expenditure method of its estimating in the selected sample of the world countries. In this respect, the validity of a hypothesis is also verified that countries with higher GDP per capita reach the lower proportion of consumption in the total GDP than countries with a lower GDP per capita, namely at the global comparison on the more heterogeneous sample of countries than analyses published so far.

  17. Assessing tourism's global environmental impact 1900–2050

    OpenAIRE

    Gössling, Stefan; Peeters, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This paper pioneers the assessment of tourism's total global resource use, including its fossil fuel consumption, associated CO2 emissions, fresh water, land, and food use. As tourism is a dynamic growth system, characterized by rapidly increasing tourist numbers, understanding its past, current, and future contributions to global resource use is a central requirement for sustainable tourism assessments. The paper introduces the concept of resource use intensities (RUIs), which represent tour...

  18. Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng

    2016-01-01

    Summary Canopy height is a key factor that affects carbon storage, vegetation productivity and biodiversity in forests, as well as an indicator of key processes such as biomass allocation. However, global variation in forest canopy height and its determinants are poorly known. We used global data...

  19. Assessment of Marijuana Use and Psychosocial Behaviors at Two Historically Black Universities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen-Reid, Terra L.; Rhodes, Warren A.

    2003-01-01

    Assessed three constructs (resilient, invulnerable, and vulnerable) as they related to marijuana use, examining the role of spirituality and social support as potential buffering mechanisms. Data on 103 African American undergraduates from two historically black colleges indicated that students who continued to use marijuana were less spiritual…

  20. On Applications of Rasch Models in International Comparative Large-Scale Assessments: A Historical Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendt, Heike; Bos, Wilfried; Goy, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Several current international comparative large-scale assessments of educational achievement (ICLSA) make use of "Rasch models", to address functions essential for valid cross-cultural comparisons. From a historical perspective, ICLSA and Georg Rasch's "models for measurement" emerged at about the same time, half a century ago. However, the…

  1. Subjective global assessment for nutritional assessment of hospitalized patients requiring haemodialysis: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Sheau Kang; Loh, Yet Hua; Choong, Hui Lin; Suhail, Sufi M

    2016-11-01

    Evidence has validated that the nutritional status of hospitalized patients on haemodialysis could be compromised because of admission-related and hospital-associated morbidities on the background of their kidney disease. However, nutritional status is not assessed and monitored routinely during the hospitalization period. The aim of the present study was to assess the nutritional status of hospitalized patients requiring haemodialysis with the subjective global assessment (SGA) tool during the hospitalization period. This is a prospective cohort study conducted in an acute tertiary general hospital. Patients aged 21-75 years old, admitted for various illnesses and requiring haemodialysis between November 2011 and May 2012 were enrolled into this study. A trained dietician assessed patients' nutritional status with the SGA tool, which included historical data on weight change, dietary intake, gastrointestinal symptoms, functional capacity, comorbidities and physical examination on subcutaneous fat loss, muscle wasting and presence of oedema and/or ascites. Patients were categorized under three groups: SGA-A (well-nourished), SGA-B (moderately malnourished) and SGA-C (severely malnourished). Eighty patients (mean ± SD age = 59 ± 10 years; 76% Chinese ethnicity) were assessed. Mean ± SD body mass index (BMI) was 25.1 ± 6.1 kg/m(2) . SGA categories were 48% SGA-A, 46% SGA-B, and 6% SGA-C. Mean energy and protein intake (P nutritional status. More than half of the hospitalized patients requiring haemodialysis were malnourished. It is important to incorporate SGA in the care of hospitalized haemodialysis patients for early detection of malnutrition and for medical nutrition therapy to optimise patients' nutritional status for better outcomes. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

  2. National Assessment of Historical Shoreline Change: A Pilot Study of Historical Coastal Bluff Retreat in the Great Lakes, Erie, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Malone, Shamus; Kratzmann, Meredith G.

    2009-01-01

    Coastal bluff retreat is a chronic problem along many high-relief coastlines in the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regard-ing trends and rates of bluff retreat. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To address these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project, conducted a pilot study of bluff retreat along the Lake Erie, Pa., coastline to assess the feasibility of undertaking a larger, multi-state analysis in the Great Lakes region. This report provides an overview of the pilot-study location and bluff geomorphology, the data sources and methodology, results of the analysis, and a discussion of the feasibility of undertaking a similar analysis along eroding bluffs in other Great Lakes states. This pilot study is part of an ongoing effort by the USGS to provide a comprehensive analysis of historical shoreline change and cliff and bluff retreat along open-ocean coastlines of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of the work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing coastal change so that systematic and consistent periodic updates of coastal erosion can be made nationally. Bluff-retreat evaluations are conducted by comparing the location of a historical bluff edge digitized from aerial photographs with those of recent bluff edges interpreted from both aerial photographs and lidar topographic surveys. The historical bluff edge is from 1938, whereas the more recent bluff edges are from 1998 and 2006 lidar data. Long-term (68-year) rates of retreat are calculated using the available bluff-edge data. The rates of retreat presented in this report represent conditions from the 1930s to 1998/2006, and are not intended for

  3. A review of historical developments of quality assessment in industry and healthcare

    OpenAIRE

    Komashie, A; Mousavi, A.; Gore, J.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: This study reviewed the literature on the historical development of quality assessment methods in industry and in healthcare. A comparative analysis of quality methods in industry and healthcare was conducted to examine the gap between methods in the two sectors. An attempt was then made to examine the latest approaches to quality assessment in healthcare and finally a proposal has been offered for a more effective approach to tackling the problem of quality in healthcare. Desig...

  4. Risk Assessment Report, Davis Global Communications Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-02-23

    methiocarb . All of the contaminants detected in the production well were evaluated as COPCs in the risk assessment, with the exception of methiocarb ... Methiocarb (Mesurol, produced by Mobay Contaminant Corp.) is a moderately toxic carbamate pesticide used principally as a bird repellant in fruit and...6.7 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 2 2.95 3.71 3 1,1-Dichloroethene 27 0.2 3.0 Ethylene dibromide 2 1.407 2.3 3 Freon 113 45 1.3 14.1 Methiocarb 1 -- 50.0 3 Methyl

  5. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  6. Assessing historical sediment connectivity in a mesoscale catchment using multi-temporal aerial photographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llena, Manel; Cavalli, Marco; Vericat, Damià; Smith, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Land uses changes interfere on sediment production and delivery in fluvial channel networks. The study of the evolution of sediment connectivity associated with different land use changes is prerequisite for a better understanding of sediment budgets and associated processes. Previous studies examined historical changes of sediment connectivity, but most are based on indices of sediment connectivity (IC) estimated by means of: (i) a single Digital Elevation Model (DEM), usually the most recent; and (ii) a weighting factor parameter, used in IC as a proxy of the impedance to sediment fluxes, that is assessed based on land use properties. However, some structural or geomorphological elements determined by both natural processes (e.g. rock falls) and human impacts (e.g. land uses changes) may have fundamental influences on connectivity, especially in a mountain areas typically affected by mass movements and strong land crop abandonment during the 20th century. Therefore, all these elements are able to modify landscape properties and, consequently, sediment connectivity. Within this context, the objective of this work is to develop and apply a workflow to extract historical IC maps using different information that can be obtained from historical aerial photos. A prerequisite of the analysis is to reconstruct the land use and the landscape properties at the period in which the IC is estimated. The analysis consists of three interrelated steps: extraction of historical ortophotomaps and point clouds from historical photos (aerial photos from 1957 and 1977) in the Upper River Cinca (Southern Pyrenees), derivation of land use maps and topographic models for those periods, and assessment and comparison of historical sediment connectivity in contrasted sub-catchments exhibiting variable degrees of land use change. The study of changes on sediment connectivity through time may provide valuable information to understand some of the floodplain and channel adjustments that are

  7. Historical Land-Cover Change and Land-Use Conversions Global Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A set of three estimates of land-cover types and annual transformations of land use are provided on a global 0.5 x0.5 degree lat/lon grid at annual time steps. The...

  8. Comparison of Mediterranean Pteropod Shell Biometrics and Ultrastructure from Historical (1910 and 1921 and Present Day (2012 Samples Provides Baseline for Monitoring Effects of Global Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella L Howes

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic carbon perturbation has caused decreases in seawater pH and increases in global temperatures since the start of the 20th century. The subsequent lowering of the saturation state of CaCO3 may make the secretion of skeletons more problematic for marine calcifiers. As organisms that precipitate thin aragonite shells, thecosome pteropods have been identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Coupled with their global distribution, this makes them ideal for use as sentinel organisms. Recent studies have highlighted shell dissolution as a potential indicator of ocean acidification; however, this metric is not applicable for monitoring pH changes in supersaturated basins. In this study, the novel approach of high resolution computed tomography (CT scanning was used to produce quantitative 3-dimensional renderings pteropod shells to assess the potential of using this method to monitor small changes in shell biometrics that may be driven by climate change drivers. An ontogenetic analysis of the shells of Cavolinia inflexa and Styliola subula collected from the Mediterranean was used to identify suitable monitoring metrics. Modern samples were then compared to historical samples of the same species, collected during the Mediterranean leg of the Thor (1910 and Dana (1921 cruises to assess whether any empirical differences could be detected. Shell densities were calculated and scanning electron microscopy was used to compare the aragonite crystal morphology. pH for the collection years was hind-cast using temperature and salinity time series with atmospheric CO2 concentrations from ice core data. Historical samples of S. subula were thicker than S. subula shells of the same size from 2012 and C. inflexa shells collected in 1910 were significantly denser than those from 2012. These results provide a baseline for future work to develop monitoring techniques for climate change in the oceans using the novel approach of

  9. Global analyses of historical masonry buildings: Equivalent frame vs. 3D solid models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementi, Francesco; Mezzapelle, Pardo Antonio; Cocchi, Gianmichele; Lenci, Stefano

    2017-07-01

    The paper analyses the seismic vulnerability of two different masonry buildings. It provides both an advanced 3D modelling with solid elements and an equivalent frame modelling. The global structural behaviour and the dynamic properties of the compound have been evaluated using the Finite Element Modelling (FEM) technique, where the nonlinear behaviour of masonry has been taken into account by proper constitutive assumptions. A sensitivity analysis is done to evaluate the effect of the choice of the structural models.

  10. Balancing Attended and Global Stimuli in Perceived Video Quality Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Junyong; Korhonen, Jari; Perkis, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    The visual attention mechanism plays a key role in the human perception system and it has a significant impact on our assessment of perceived video quality. In spite of receiving less attention from the viewers, unattended stimuli can still contribute to the understanding of the visual content....... This paper proposes a quality model based on the late attention selection theory, assuming that the video quality is perceived via two mechanisms: global and local quality assessment. First we model several visual features influencing the visual attention in quality assessment scenarios to derive...... an attention map using appropriate fusion techniques. The global quality assessment as based on the assumption that viewers allocate their attention equally to the entire visual scene, is modeled by four carefully designed quality features. By employing these same quality features, the local quality model...

  11. USGCRP assessments: Meeting the challenges of climate and global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, T.; Kuperberg, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    The United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a confederation of the research arms of 13 Federal departments and agencies. Its mission is to build a knowledge base that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated Federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support. USGCRP has supported several initiatives to promote better understanding of climate change impacts on health, support responses, and build on the progress of the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Most recently, USGCRP released a new report, "The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment". This presentation will provide an overview of USGCRP, highlight the importance of assessments, and introduce ways in which assessment findings and underlying data can be translated into critical tools to build resilience.

  12. Limitless Learning: Assessing Social Media Use for Global Workplace Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breunig, Karl Joachim

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This empirical paper aims to assess how social media can foster workplace learning within a globally dispersed project environment. In general, there are few studies on the use of social media in organizations, and many of these emphasize on issues related to knowledge transfer. Although learning traditionally has been as acquisition of…

  13. Reliability of scored patient generated subjective global assessment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: Establish the reliability of the scored Patient Generated-Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) in determining nutritional status among Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) naive HIV-infected adults. Methods: A descriptive, cross sectional study among outpatient medical clinics, in The AIDS Support Organization ...

  14. Assessing tourism's global environmental impact 1900–2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gössling, Stefan; Peeters, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This paper pioneers the assessment of tourism's total global resource use, including its fossil fuel consumption, associated CO2 emissions, fresh water, land, and food use. As tourism is a dynamic growth system, characterized by rapidly increasing tourist numbers, understanding its

  15. [Globalization and its historical location. Some remarks with the example of Ernst Haeckel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breidbach, Olaf

    2014-01-01

    Globalization, regarded here as the extensive and profound transformation process of modernity, manifests itself to us in the way it impacts the here and now. However, it also has a prehistory with regard to both its anthropogenic effects on nature and intellectual controversies. This prehistory is important for understanding how we deal with this phenomenon. Due to the important roles science plays in the process of globalization and the, in no way insignificant, repercussions it has on the sciences themselves, this article aims to present in detail a prehistory that pointedly illustrates how we perceive our modernity, also with regard to its discrepancies which result from the various underlying conditions. In its attempt to analyze the question of contemporary perception in an exemplary way, the article below looks back at the intellectual situation prevailing around 1900. It aims to clarify lines of influence and controversial issues connected with Ernst Haeckel, particularly in terms of the mutual interconnectedness and influence of intra-academic changes and cultural reflections.

  16. International Global Crop Condition Assessments in the framework of GEOGLAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Vermote, E.; Whitcraft, A. K.; Claverie, M.

    2013-12-01

    The Group on Earth Observations (partnership of governments and international organizations) developed the Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative in response to the growing calls for improved agricultural information. The goal of GEOGLAM is to strengthen the international community's capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate forecasts of agricultural production at national, regional and global scales through the use of Earth observations. This initiative is designed to build on existing agricultural monitoring initiatives at national, regional and global levels and to enhance and strengthen them through international networking, operationally focused research, and data/method sharing. GEOGLAM was adopted by the G20 as part of the action plan on food price volatility and agriculture and is being implemented through building on the extensive GEO Agricultural Community of Practice (CoP) that was initiated in 2007 and includes key national and international agencies, organizations, and universities involved in agricultural monitoring. One of the early GEOGLAM activities is to provide harmonized global crop outlooks that offer timely qualitative consensus information on crop status and prospects. This activity is being developed in response to a request from the G-20 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and is implemented within the global monitoring systems component of GEOGLAM. The goal is to develop a transparent, international, multi-source, consensus assessment of crop growing conditions, status, and agro-climatic conditions, likely to impact global production. These assessments are focused on the four primary crop types (corn, wheat, soy and rice) within the main agricultural producing regions of the world. The GEOGLAM approach is to bring together international experts from global, regional and national monitoring systems that can share and discuss information from a variety of independent complementary sources in

  17. Global Changes and Drivers of the Water Footprint of Food Consumption: A Historical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Yang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Water is one of the most important limiting resources for food production. How much water is needed for food depends on the size of the population, average food consumption patterns and food production per unit of water. These factors show large differences around the world. This paper analyzes sub-continental dynamics of the water footprint of consumption (WFcons for the prevailing diets from 1961 to 2009 using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO. The findings show that, in most regions, the water needed to feed one person decreased even if diets became richer, because of the increase in water use efficiency in food production during the past half-century. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI decomposition approach is used to analyze the contributions of the major drivers of WFcons for food: population, diet and agricultural practices (output per unit of water. We compare the contributions of these drivers through different subcontinents, and find that population growth still was the major driver behind increasing WFcons for food until now and that potential water savings through agricultural practice improvements were offset by population growth and diet change. The changes of the factors mentioned above were the largest in most developing areas with rapid economic development. With the development of globalization, the international food trade has brought more and more water savings in global water use over time. The results indicate that, in the near future and in many regions, diet change is likely to override population growth as the major driver behind WFcons for food.

  18. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 10 Appendix I - Historical Evaporation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  19. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 14 Appendix M - Historical Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  20. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 16 Appendix O - Historical Soil Moisture.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  1. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 12 Appendix K - Historical Rel. Humidity.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  2. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 8 Appendix G - Historical Precipitation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  3. Five-Year NRHP Re-Evaluation of Historic Buildings Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ullrich, R A; Heidecker, K R

    2011-09-12

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) 'Draft Programmatic Agreement among the Department of Energy and the California State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Operation of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory' requires a review and re-evaluation of the eligibility of laboratory properties for the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) every five years. The original evaluation was published in 2005; this report serves as the first five-year re-evaluation. This re-evaluation includes consideration of changes within LLNL to management, to mission, and to the built environment. it also determines the status of those buildings, objects, and districts that were recommended as NRHP-eligible in the 2005 report. Buildings that were omitted from the earlier building list, those that have reached 50 years of age since the original assessment, and new buildings are also addressed in the re-evaluation.

  4. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 24 Appendix W - Historical Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  5. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 26 Appendix Y - Historical Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  6. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 22 Appendix U - Historical Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  7. The global historical and future economic loss and cost of earthquakes during the production of adaptive worldwide economic fragility functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    macroseismic intensity, capital stock estimate, GDP estimate, year and the combined seismic building index (a created combination of the global seismic code index, building practice factor, building age and infrastructure vulnerability). The analysis provided three key results: a) The production of economic fragility functions from the 1900-2008 events showed very good correlation to the economic loss and cost from earthquakes from 2009-2013, in real-time. This methodology has been extended to other natural disaster types (typhoon, flood, drought). b) The reanalysis of historical earthquake events in order to check associated historical loss and costs versus the expected exposure in terms of intensities. The 1939 Chillan, 1948 Turkmenistan, 1950 Iran, 1972 Managua, 1980 Western Nepal and 1992 Erzincan earthquake events were seen as huge outliers compared with the modelled capital stock and GDP and thus additional studies were undertaken to check the original loss results. c) A worldwide GIS layer database of capital stock (gross and net), GDP, infrastructure age and economic indices over the period 1900-2013 have been created in conjunction with the CATDAT database in order to define correct economic loss and costs.

  8. Assessing and Improving Childhood Nutrition and Growth Globally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Anne M; Suchdev, Parminder S

    2017-08-01

    Improving maternal and child nutrition is central to global development goals and reducing the noncommunicable disease burden. Although the process of becoming malnourished starts in utero, the consequences of poor nutrition extend across the life cycle and into future generations. The global nutrition targets for 2025 include reducing infant and young child growth faltering, halting the increase of overweight children, improving breastfeeding practices, and reducing maternal anemia. In this review, we address nutritional assessment, discuss nonnutritive factors that affect growth, and endorse the evidence-based interventions that should be scaled up to improve maternal and child nutrition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Enhancing Historical Reasoning: A Strategy Including Formative Assessment with Systematic Continuous Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Sergio; Tirado, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    Learning History promotes students' reasoning. According to Van Drie & Van Boxtel (2008), historical reasoning involves six elements: substantive concepts, metaconcepts, asking historical questions, using sources, contextualization, and argumentation. Although there are didactic strategies that promote historical reasoning, these do not…

  10. Assessment of historical and cultural heritage in Lubensky district of Poltava region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Марина Cторчак

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article assesses available historical and cultural heritage of Lubny district, Poltava region. Among the considered assessment methods of the historical and cultural heritage K. A. Polyvach’s method has been chosen for the study, as it allows to assess the security of an administrative district. According to this method, the provision of rural districts according to the following indicators was carried out: the number of objects and their division into types; concentration of objects calculated on the area of the territory; a modified concentration index. The latter takes into account not only the area, but also the population. The coefficient of objects’ localization, showing the largest number of cultural monuments and the smallest area of rural councils has also been indicated. In Lubensky district, archeological monuments dominate, namely, the fraternal graves and memorial plaques to the fallen heroes of warriors. The disadvantage of this area is the lack of fixed objects of science and technology that would act as a tourist resource. The largest number of historical and cultural heritage objects is concentrated in Vovchytsya, Kalaydenska, Mgarska and Mykhnivska village councils, and the smallest number is in Shershnevsky, Matskiv and Okipsky. In general, it can be said that there are 102 objects in Lubensky area - this is not enough, if you also take into account that their placement is not uniform. In addition to the lowest level of livelihood in Shershnivska, Okipa, Berezivka, Tyshkivska, Vyshchebulatka, Matskivska, Lytvyakivska and Novorikhivska settlement councils there are only monuments of one category, which diminishes their interest among tourists. In the area the most promising for the development of tourism are Mgarska, Vovchytska and Kalaydentsi rural councils, because within them there is an opportunity to build complex tourist routes and, in general, to develop tourist infrastructure, not only because of the large

  11. Assessment of Global Wind Energy Resource Utilization Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, M.; He, B.; Guan, Y.; Zhang, H.; Song, S.

    2017-09-01

    Development of wind energy resource (WER) is a key to deal with climate change and energy structure adjustment. A crucial issue is to obtain the distribution and variability of WER, and mine the suitable location to exploit it. In this paper, a multicriteria evaluation (MCE) model is constructed by integrating resource richness and stability, utilization value and trend of resource, natural environment with weights. The global resource richness is assessed through wind power density (WPD) and multi-level wind speed. The utilizable value of resource is assessed by the frequency of effective wind. The resource stability is assessed by the coefficient of variation of WPD and the frequency of prevailing wind direction. Regression slope of long time series WPD is used to assess the trend of WER. All of the resource evaluation indicators are derived from the atmospheric reanalysis data ERA-Interim with spatial resolution 0.125°. The natural environment factors mainly refer to slope and land-use suitability, which are derived from multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED 2010) and GlobalCover2009. Besides, the global WER utilization potential map is produced, which shows most high potential regions are located in north of Africa. Additionally, by verifying that 22.22 % and 48.8 9% operational wind farms fall on medium-high and high potential regions respectively, the result can provide a basis for the macroscopic siting of wind farm.

  12. Extraction and use of historical extreme climate databases for nuclear power plants safety assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Yasser; Bertin, Xavier; Bardet, Lise; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Rebour, Vincent

    2015-04-01

    Safety assessments of nuclear power plants (NPPs) related to natural hazards are a matter of major interest to the nuclear community in France and many European countries. Over the past fewer decades, France has experienced many of these events such as heat waves (2003 and 2006), heavy snowstorms (1958, 1990 and 1992), storms which have given rise to heavy rain and severe floods (1992, 1999, 2010), strong straight-line wind and extreme marine surges (1987, 1999 and 2010) much larger than the other local observations (outliers). These outliers had clearly illustrated the potential to underestimate the extreme surges calculated with the current statistical methods. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical framework and using more reliable databases for the assessment of hazards to design NPPs to low or extremely low probabilities of failure. These databases can be produced by collecting historical information (HI) about severe climatic events occurred over short and long timescales. As a matter of fact, natural hazards such as heat waves, droughts, floods, severe storms and snowstorms have affected France and many European countries since the dawn of time. These events would have been such horrific experiences that if they really occurred, there would be unmistakable traces of them. They must have left clues. These catastrophic events have been unforgettably engraved in people's minds and many of them have been traced in archives and history textbooks. The oldest events have certainly left clues and traces somewhere in the geological layers of the earth or elsewhere. The construction of the historical databases and developing probabilistic approaches capable of integrating them correctly is highly challenging for the scientific community (Translating these geological clues to historical data to build historical databases that can be used by the statistical models is a different

  13. GIS mapping Refuge pasture boundaries and applying historic domestic livestock use to accurately assess the overall use of Refuge habitats

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Final report for a project at Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge to map and assess pasture fence boundaries and historic domestic cattle use in those...

  14. Assessment of CMIP5 historical simulations of rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liu, Jiandong; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

    2017-05-01

    We present preliminary analyses of the historical (1986-2005) climate simulations of a ten-member subset of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models over Southeast Asia. The objective of this study was to evaluate the general circulation models' performance in simulating the mean state of climate over this less-studied climate vulnerable region, with a focus on precipitation. Results indicate that most of the models are unable to reproduce the observed state of climate over Southeast Asia. Though the multi-model ensemble mean is a better representation of the observations, the uncertainties in the individual models are far high. There is no particular model that performed well in simulating the historical climate of Southeast Asia. There seems to be no significant influence of the spatial resolutions of the models on the quality of simulation, despite the view that higher resolution models fare better. The study results emphasize on careful consideration of models for impact studies and the need to improve the next generation of models in their ability to simulate regional climates better.

  15. Information technologies for global resources management and environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, A.P.; Wang, Hua

    1992-09-01

    Recent advances in computer and communications technologies offer unprecedented opportunities to develop sophisticated information resources management systems for global resources management and environment assessment in an efficient, effective, and systematic manner. In this paper, the emerging global energy and environmental issues are identified. Since satellite-based remote sensing systems are becoming increasingly available and produce massive data collections, the utilization of imaging processing techniques and their applications for regional and global resources management and environmental studies are described. Interoperability and interconnectivity among heterogeneous computer systems are major issues in designing a totally integrated, multimedia-based, information resources management system that operates in a networking environment. Discussions of the future technology trends are focused on a number of emerging information management technologies and communications standards which will aid in achieving seamless system integration and offer user-friendly operations. It can be foreseen that advances in computer and communications technologies, increasingly sophisticated image processing techniques and Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and the development of globally comprehensive data bases will bring ``global visualization`` onto multimedia desktop computers before the end of this decade.

  16. Information technologies for global resources management and environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, A.P.; Wang, Hua.

    1992-01-01

    Recent advances in computer and communications technologies offer unprecedented opportunities to develop sophisticated information resources management systems for global resources management and environment assessment in an efficient, effective, and systematic manner. In this paper, the emerging global energy and environmental issues are identified. Since satellite-based remote sensing systems are becoming increasingly available and produce massive data collections, the utilization of imaging processing techniques and their applications for regional and global resources management and environmental studies are described. Interoperability and interconnectivity among heterogeneous computer systems are major issues in designing a totally integrated, multimedia-based, information resources management system that operates in a networking environment. Discussions of the future technology trends are focused on a number of emerging information management technologies and communications standards which will aid in achieving seamless system integration and offer user-friendly operations. It can be foreseen that advances in computer and communications technologies, increasingly sophisticated image processing techniques and Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and the development of globally comprehensive data bases will bring global visualization'' onto multimedia desktop computers before the end of this decade.

  17. Assessing global resource utilization efficiency in the industrial sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Marc A

    2013-09-01

    Designing efficient energy systems, which also meet economic, environmental and other objectives and constraints, is a significant challenge. In a world with finite natural resources and large energy demands, it is important to understand not just actual efficiencies, but also limits to efficiency, as the latter identify margins for efficiency improvement. Energy analysis alone is inadequate, e.g., it yields energy efficiencies that do not provide limits to efficiency. To obtain meaningful and useful efficiencies for energy systems, and to clarify losses, exergy analysis is a beneficial and useful tool. Here, the global industrial sector and industries within it are assessed by using energy and exergy methods. The objective is to improve the understanding of the efficiency of global resource use in the industrial sector and, with this information, to facilitate the development, prioritization and ultimate implementation of rational improvement options. Global energy and exergy flow diagrams for the industrial sector are developed and overall efficiencies for the global industrial sector evaluated as 51% based on energy and 30% based on exergy. Consequently, exergy analysis indicates a less efficient picture of energy use in the global industrial sector than does energy analysis. A larger margin for improvement exists from an exergy perspective, compared to the overly optimistic margin indicated by energy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Quantification of uncertainties in global grazing systems assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetzel, T.; Havlik, P.; Herrero, M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Kastner, T.; Kroisleitner, C.; Rolinski, S.; Searchinger, T.; Van Bodegom, P. M.; Wirsenius, S.; Erb, K.-H.

    2017-07-01

    Livestock systems play a key role in global sustainability challenges like food security and climate change, yet many unknowns and large uncertainties prevail. We present a systematic, spatially explicit assessment of uncertainties related to grazing intensity (GI), a key metric for assessing ecological impacts of grazing, by combining existing data sets on (a) grazing feed intake, (b) the spatial distribution of livestock, (c) the extent of grazing land, and (d) its net primary productivity (NPP). An analysis of the resulting 96 maps implies that on average 15% of the grazing land NPP is consumed by livestock. GI is low in most of the world's grazing lands, but hotspots of very high GI prevail in 1% of the total grazing area. The agreement between GI maps is good on one fifth of the world's grazing area, while on the remainder, it is low to very low. Largest uncertainties are found in global drylands and where grazing land bears trees (e.g., the Amazon basin or the Taiga belt). In some regions like India or Western Europe, massive uncertainties even result in GI > 100% estimates. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the input data for NPP, animal distribution, and grazing area contribute about equally to the total variability in GI maps, while grazing feed intake is a less critical variable. We argue that a general improvement in quality of the available global level data sets is a precondition for improving the understanding of the role of livestock systems in the context of global environmental change or food security.

  19. Global Assessment of High-Altitude Wind Power

    OpenAIRE

    Archer, Cristina L.; Ken Caldeira

    2009-01-01

    The available wind power resource worldwide at altitudes between 500 and 12,000 m above ground is assessed for the first time. Twenty-eight years of wind data from the reanalyses by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Department of Energy are analyzed and interpolated to study geographical distributions and persistency of winds at all altitudes. Furthermore, intermittency issues and global climate effects of large-scale extraction of energy from high-altitude winds are i...

  20. Effort in Multitasking: Local and Global Assessment of Effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiesel, Andrea; Dignath, David

    2017-01-01

    When performing multiple tasks in succession, self-organization of task order might be superior compared to external-controlled task schedules, because self-organization allows optimizing processing modes and thus reduces switch costs, and it increases commitment to task goals. However, self-organization is an additional executive control process that is not required if task order is externally specified and as such it is considered as time-consuming and effortful. To compare self-organized and externally controlled task scheduling, we suggest assessing global subjective and objectives measures of effort in addition to local performance measures. In our new experimental approach, we combined characteristics of dual tasking settings and task switching settings and compared local and global measures of effort in a condition with free choice of task sequence and a condition with cued task sequence. In a multi-tasking environment, participants chose the task order while the task requirement of the not-yet-performed task remained the same. This task preview allowed participants to work on the previously non-chosen items in parallel and resulted in faster responses and fewer errors in task switch trials than in task repetition trials. The free-choice group profited more from this task preview than the cued group when considering local performance measures. Nevertheless, the free-choice group invested more effort than the cued group when considering global measures. Thus, self-organization in task scheduling seems to be effortful even in conditions in which it is beneficiary for task processing. In a second experiment, we reduced the possibility of task preview for the not-yet-performed tasks in order to hinder efficient self-organization. Here neither local nor global measures revealed substantial differences between the free-choice and a cued task sequence condition. Based on the results of both experiments, we suggest that global assessment of effort in addition to

  1. Toward a 30m resolution time series of historical global urban expansion: exploring variation in North American cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuhlmacher, M.; Wang, C.; Georgescu, M.; Tellman, B.; Balling, R.; Clinton, N. E.; Collins, L.; Goldblatt, R.; Hanson, G.

    2016-12-01

    Global representations of modern day urban land use and land cover (LULC) extent are becoming increasingly prevalent. Yet considerable uncertainties in the representation of built environment extent (i.e. global classifications generated from 250m resolution MODIS imagery or the United States' National Land Cover Database) remain because of the lack of a systematic, globally consistent methodological approach. We aim to increase resolution, accuracy, and improve upon past efforts by establishing a data-driven definition of the urban landscape, based on Landsat 5, 7 & 8 imagery and ancillary data sets. Continuous and discrete machine learning classification algorithms have been developed in Google Earth Engine (GEE), a powerful online cloud-based geospatial storage and parallel-computing platform. Additionally, thousands of ground truth points have been selected from high resolution imagery to fill in the previous lack of accurate data to be used for training and validation. We will present preliminary classification and accuracy assessments for select cities in the United States and Mexico. Our approach has direct implications for development of projected urban growth that is grounded on realistic identification of urbanizing hot-spots, with consequences for local to regional scale climate change, energy demand, water stress, human health, urban-ecological interactions, and efforts used to prioritize adaptation and mitigation strategies to offset large-scale climate change. Future work to apply the built-up detection algorithm globally and yearly is underway in a partnership between GEE, University of California in San Diego, and Arizona State University.

  2. Sustainability assessment, rating systems and historical buildings Case study: Rehabilitated construction in a university site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadrykia Somayeh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the relationship between the indicators and different factors that “rating systems for green projects” concentrates on, and principles and factors considered in the rehabilitation of historical buildings. In recent years, different methods and systems concerned and improved for assessing environmental sustainability. LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design and BREEAM (Building Research Establishment (BRE Environmental Assessment Method are two most commonly used rating systems, established in U.S and UK. These systems comprise some categories and different factors to achieve environmentally responsible design. Firstly, this study focuses on the list of rating systems indicators and criteria. Secondly this paper investigates a historical rehabilitated building in the site of Tabriz Art University, as a case study and has tried to compile its green design elements. Finally, this work intends to compare mentioned elements with indicators and factors of building rating systems. Findings of the study revealed that “Materials and Resources”, “indoor environmental quality” and also “Sustainable Sites” ,the most significant indicator of rating systems, had major and important role in the rehabilitation of the building. Beyond this materials’ life cycle was considerable in construction.

  3. Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchin, Peter; Currie, Thomas E.; Whitehouse, Harvey; François, Pieter; Feeney, Kevin; Mullins, Daniel; Hoyer, Daniel; Collins, Christina; Grohmann, Stephanie; Mendel-Gleason, Gavin; Turner, Edward; Dupeyron, Agathe; Cioni, Enrico; Reddish, Jenny; Levine, Jill; Jordan, Greine; Brandl, Eva; Williams, Alice; Cesaretti, Rudolf; Krueger, Marta; Ceccarelli, Alessandro; Figliulo-Rosswurm, Joe; Tuan, Po-Ju; Peregrine, Peter; Marciniak, Arkadiusz; Preiser-Kapeller, Johannes; Kradin, Nikolay; Korotayev, Andrey; Palmisano, Alessio; Baker, David; Bidmead, Julye; Bol, Peter; Christian, David; Cook, Connie; Covey, Alan; Feinman, Gary; Júlíusson, Árni Daníel; Kristinsson, Axel; Miksic, John; Mostern, Ruth; Petrie, Cameron; Rudiak-Gould, Peter; ter Haar, Barend; Wallace, Vesna; Mair, Victor; Xie, Liye; Baines, John; Bridges, Elizabeth; Manning, Joseph; Lockhart, Bruce; Bogaard, Amy; Spencer, Charles

    2018-01-01

    Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as “Seshat: Global History Databank.” We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of governance, and information systems. Our analyses revealed that these different characteristics show strong relationships with each other and that a single principal component captures around three-quarters of the observed variation. Furthermore, we found that different characteristics of social complexity are highly predictable across different world regions. These results suggest that key aspects of social organization are functionally related and do indeed coevolve in predictable ways. Our findings highlight the power of the sciences and humanities working together to rigorously test hypotheses about general rules that may have shaped human history. PMID:29269395

  4. Assessment of Global Annual Atmospheric Energy Balance from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Bing; Stackhouse, Paul; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Hu, Yongxiang; Sun, Wenbo; Fan, Tai-Fang (Alice); Hinkelman, Laura

    2008-01-01

    Global atmospheric energy balance is one of the fundamental processes for the earth's climate system. This study uses currently available satellite data sets of radiative energy at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface and latent and sensible heat over oceans for the year 2000 to assess the global annual energy budget. Over land, surface radiation data are used to constrain assimilated results and to force the radiation, turbulent heat, and heat storage into balance due to a lack of observation-based turbulent heat flux estimations. Global annual means of the TOA net radiation obtained from both direct measurements and calculations are close to zero. The net radiative energy fluxes into the surface and the surface latent heat transported into the atmosphere are about 113 and 86 Watts per square meter, respectively. The estimated atmospheric and surface heat imbalances are about -8 9 Watts per square meter, values that are within the uncertainties of surface radiation and sea surface turbulent flux estimates and likely systematic biases in the analyzed observations. The potential significant additional absorption of solar radiation within the atmosphere suggested by previous studies does not appear to be required to balance the energy budget the spurious heat imbalances in the current data are much smaller (about half) than those obtained previously and debated at about a decade ago. Progress in surface radiation and oceanic turbulent heat flux estimations from satellite measurements significantly reduces the bias errors in the observed global energy budgets of the climate system.

  5. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP - 1992/1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Giardini

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations, recognizing natural disasters as a major threat to human life and development, designed the 1990-1999 period as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR; UN Res. 42/169/ 1987. Among the IDNDR Demonstration Projects is the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP and implemented in the 1992-1999 period. In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation. To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP established initially a mosaic of regions and multinational test areas, then expanded to cover whole continents and finally the globe. The GSHAP Global Map of Seismic Hazard integrates the results obtained in the regional areas and depicts Peak-Ground-Acceleration (PGA with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years. All regional results and the Global Map of Seismic Hazard are published in 1999 and available on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.

  6. Assessment of global phase uncertainty in case-control studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Houwelingen Hans C

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In haplotype-based candidate gene studies a problem is that the genotype data are unphased, which results in haplotype ambiguity. The measure 1 quantifies haplotype predictability from genotype data. It is computed for each individual haplotype, and for a measure of global relative efficiency a minimum value is suggested. Alternatively, we developed methods directly based on the information content of haplotype frequency estimates to obtain global relative efficiency measures: and based on A- and D-optimality, respectively. All three methods are designed for single populations; they can be applied in cases only, controls only or the whole data. Therefore they are not necessarily optimal for haplotype testing in case-control studies. Results A new global relative efficiency measure was derived to maximize power of a simple test statistic that compares haplotype frequencies in cases and controls. Application to real data showed that our proposed method gave a clear and summarizing measure for the case-control study conducted. Additionally this measure might be used for selection of individuals, who have the highest potential for improving power by resolving phase ambiguity. Conclusion Instead of using relative efficiency measure for cases only, controls only or their combined data, we link uncertainty measure to case-control studies directly. Hence, our global efficiency measure might be useful to assess whether data are informative or have enough power for estimation of a specific haplotype risk.

  7. Global Assessment of Bisphenol A in the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrales, Jone; Kristofco, Lauren A.; Steele, W. Baylor; Yates, Brian S.; Breed, Christopher S.; Williams, E. Spencer

    2015-01-01

    Because bisphenol A (BPA) is a high production volume chemical, we examined over 500 peer-reviewed studies to understand its global distribution in effluent discharges, surface waters, sewage sludge, biosolids, sediments, soils, air, wildlife, and humans. Bisphenol A was largely reported from urban ecosystems in Asia, Europe, and North America; unfortunately, information was lacking from large geographic areas, megacities, and developing countries. When sufficient data were available, probabilistic hazard assessments were performed to understand global environmental quality concerns. Exceedances of Canadian Predicted No Effect Concentrations for aquatic life were >50% for effluents in Asia, Europe, and North America but as high as 80% for surface water reports from Asia. Similarly, maximum concentrations of BPA in sediments from Asia were higher than Europe. Concentrations of BPA in wildlife, mostly for fish, ranged from 0.2 to 13 000 ng/g. We observed 60% and 40% exceedences of median levels by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in Europe and Asia, respectively. These findings highlight the utility of coordinating global sensing of environmental contaminants efforts through integration of environmental monitoring and specimen banking to identify regions for implementation of more robust environmental assessment and management programs. PMID:26674671

  8. Global Assessment of Bisphenol A in the Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jone Corrales

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Because bisphenol A (BPA is a high production volume chemical, we examined over 500 peer-reviewed studies to understand its global distribution in effluent discharges, surface waters, sewage sludge, biosolids, sediments, soils, air, wildlife, and humans. Bisphenol A was largely reported from urban ecosystems in Asia, Europe, and North America; unfortunately, information was lacking from large geographic areas, megacities, and developing countries. When sufficient data were available, probabilistic hazard assessments were performed to understand global environmental quality concerns. Exceedances of Canadian Predicted No Effect Concentrations for aquatic life were >50% for effluents in Asia, Europe, and North America but as high as 80% for surface water reports from Asia. Similarly, maximum concentrations of BPA in sediments from Asia were higher than Europe. Concentrations of BPA in wildlife, mostly for fish, ranged from 0.2 to 13 000 ng/g. We observed 60% and 40% exceedences of median levels by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in Europe and Asia, respectively. These findings highlight the utility of coordinating global sensing of environmental contaminants efforts through integration of environmental monitoring and specimen banking to identify regions for implementation of more robust environmental assessment and management programs.

  9. Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio

  10. Global Aquaculture Performance Index (GAPI: The First Global Environmental Assessment of Marine Fish Farming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenna M.S. Stoner

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available “Sustainable” is among the most sought after of all seafood product adjectives. Ironically it is also one of the most poorly defined and understood. The Global Aquaculture Performance Index (GAPI is the first tool to assess environmental performance of global marine aquaculture production, permitting direct comparison of disparate species, production methods and jurisdictions. Clear patterns emerge from this analysis; significant variation of environmental performance is driven by the species being farmed, significant room for improvement exists across the entire sector, the worst performing players are also the fastest growing, particularly within Asia, and perhaps most importantly, this work highlights the potential trap awaiting policy makers who focus too narrowly on farm production efficiency alone as a solution to diminishing seafood availability.

  11. Lithium Resources and Production: Critical Assessment and Global Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve H. Mohr

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper critically assesses if accessible lithium resources are sufficient for expanded demand due to lithium battery electric vehicles. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR of lithium globally were estimated at between 19.3 (Case 1 and 55.0 (Case 3 Mt Li; Best Estimate (BE was 23.6 Mt Li. The Mohr 2010 model was modified to project lithium supply. The Case 1 URR scenario indicates sufficient lithium for a 77% maximum penetration of lithium battery electric vehicles in 2080 whereas supply is adequate to beyond 2200 in the Case 3 URR scenario. Global lithium demand approached a maximum of 857 kt Li/y, with a 100% penetration of lithium vehicles, 3.5 people per car and 10 billion population.

  12. Assessing naturalness in northern great lakes forests based on historical land-cover and vegetation changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimmi, Urs; Radeloff, Volker C

    2013-08-01

    The concept of naturalness was developed to assess to what degree landscapes represent a natural state. Protected areas are often regarded as the remnants of untouched landscapes although many landscapes commonly perceived as pristine have a long history of human impact. Here, we introduced a historical perspective into the concept of naturalness and the analysis of the effectiveness of protected areas by analyzing historical trajectories in land-cover and forest communities for the Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore on Michigan's Upper Peninsula (USA). Distribution of land-cover and forest community types was reconstructed for pre-settlement time (around 1850), the height of agricultural expansion (1928), and modern conditions (2000). Naturalness of the landscape was assessed by analyzing similarity between pre-settlement and current conditions and by assessing landscape continuity (1850-1928-2000). We compared changes in the strictly protected park core zone with those in the inland buffer zone with ongoing sustainable logging, and a not protected area adjacent to the park. Forest was the dominant land-cover type over the entire study period. We detected a gradient in land-cover continuity from the core zone (81 % continuity) to the inland buffer zone (74 %) and the area outside the park (66 %). Northern hardwood was the dominating forest type in all time points with high continuity (76 %). In contrast, pine forests show a more dynamic pattern with more than 50 % of the initial forests switching to non-forest or early succession forest types by 1928. More than half of the study area was considered as "natural virgin" (no changes in land-cover and forest community type) with a higher portion within the park than in the adjacent area. In contrast, areas with low naturalness are more abundant outside the park. Our study demonstrates the value of integrating historical information into naturalness assessments and the results provide useful information for future

  13. Reliability of the 7-point subjective global assessment scale in assessing nutritional status of dialysis patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, R.; Dekker, F. W.; Boeschoten, E. W.; Stevens, P.; Krediet, R. T.

    1999-01-01

    Subjective global assessment (SGA) is a method to score nutritional status in a standardized way. The original 3-point scale has been replaced by a 7-point scale. The reliability of the latter scale has never been tested. We therefore assessed inter-observer and intra-observer reliability.

  14. A Global Climate Model based event set for tropical cyclone risk assessment in the West Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitolo, Renato; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Stephenson, David; Cook, Ian; Flay, Shaun; Foote, Matthew

    2010-05-01

    We propose a new approach to the creation of a stochastic event set for tropical cyclone risk assessment in West Pacific, for use in the insurance industry in the catastrophe modelling process. The event set is based on both available observational data and a database of tropical cyclones dynamically simulated by a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model. For an initial proof of concept exercise we focus on the West Pacific region: Japan, China and South-East Asia. A database of tropical cyclone tracks is extracted from over 200 years of current climate simulations by HiGEM1.1, a high resolution, coupled ocean-atmosphere Global Climate Model. A bias correction procedure is applied to model the central pressure of the dynamically HiGEM-simulated tropical cyclones in terms of the observed (IBTrACS) distribution of central pressures. The bias-corrected storm track database is statistically sampled and spatially perturbed to produce a 1000 year database of synthetic storms. The proposed approach has several advantages: 1. it is based on a long-term, globally consistent source of dynamically simulated tropical storms under current state of the atmosphere/climate; this compensates reliance on limited and/or inconsistent historical data and provides a much larger sampling for the distribution of the tropical cyclone landfalls; 2. it allows assessment of how large scale natural climate variability may influence regional tropical cyclone activity on multidecadal time scales, and how this may alter risk; 3. it allows to analyse teleconnections in weather extremes, and hence potential accumulation of seemingly unrelated risk; 4. it can be further developed to assess how climate change may affect tropical cyclone risk in the future. Adopting an integrated approach may begin to change the way that weather related risk is understood and assessed in the insurance industry.

  15. Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  16. Objectives for Stakeholder Engagement in Global Environmental Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Garard

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Global environmental assessments (GEAs are among the most large-scale, formalized processes for synthesizing knowledge at the science–policy–society interface. The successful engagement of diverse stakeholders in GEAs is often described as a crucial mechanism for increasing their legitimacy, salience and credibility. However, the diversity of perspectives on the more precise objectives for stakeholder engagement remains largely unclear. The aims of this study are to categorize and characterize the diversity of perspectives on objectives for stakeholder engagement in GEAs; to explore differences in perspectives within and between different stakeholder groups and categories; and to test whether the more practical prioritization and selection of objectives in GEAs can be linked to deliberative policy learning as a higher-level rationale for stakeholder engagement. For these purposes, we conduct a grounded theory analysis and a keyword analysis of interview material and official GEA documents relating to two GEAs: UN Environment’s Fifth Global Environment Outlook and the Working Group III contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Based on the analysis, we identify six categories of objectives and present as hypotheses promising ways forward for prioritizing and characterizing objectives for stakeholder engagement in GEAs, as well as potential reasons for the differences between perspectives on objectives. This study draws attention to the need for future GEA processes to have more explicit discussions on the objectives for stakeholder engagement, as well as the importance of moving towards increasingly deliberative and inclusive assessment processes more broadly.

  17. Nigeria and the socio-economic globalization of the 20th century: A historical re-consideration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kingsley N. Okoro

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization: a multifaceted contemporary economic and socio-political phenomenon has elicited diverse interpretation and reactions, some of which are positive, while some are negative, depending on the context and situation of the perceiver. However, experiences show that the Nigeria masses, have suffered great-untold hardship, consequent upon the forceful incorporation of the country into this web of the socio economic dictation of the colonialists and their allies in the country. The negative effects of globalization have taken toll of all the realms of our national life, ranging from economic, political, social, ethical and religious. We have been eroded away by the great flood of globalization that we have become rootless, in our own soil, without personality or identity. We have become mere appendage to the world history. In the midst of this confusion, the question becomes what do we do to escape from the onslaught of the west, who wants to enslave us perpetually? However, before we chart a reasonable course, we must assess the extent of the damage. This paper is therefore dedicated to carry out the required survey.

  18. Global assessment of the economics of land degradation and improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkonya, Ephraim

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation—defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment report as the long-term loss of ecosystems services—is a global problem, negatively affecting the livelihoods and food security of billions of people. Intensifying efforts, mobilizing more investments and strengthening the policy commitment for addressing land degradation at the global level needs to be supported by a careful evaluation of the costs and benefits of action versus costs of inaction against land degradation. Consistent with the definition of land degradation, we adopt the Total Economic Value (TEV) approach to determine the costs of land degradation and use remote sensing data and global statistical databases in our analysis. The results show that the annual costs of land degradation due to land use and land cover change (LUCC) are about US231 billion per year or about 0.41 % of the global GDP of US56.49 trillion in 2007. Contrary to past global land degradation assessment studies, land degradation is severe in both tropical and temperate countries. However, the losses from LUCC are especially high in Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 26 % of the total global costs of land degradation due to LUCC. However, the local tangible losses (mainly provisioning services) account only for 46 % of the total cost of land degradation and the rest of the cost is due to the losses of ecosystem services (ES) accruable largely to beneficiaries other than the local land users. These external ES losses include carbon sequestration, biodiversity, genetic information and cultural services. This implies that the global community bears the largest cost of land degradation, which suggests that efforts to address land degradation should be done bearing in mind that the global community,as a whole, incurs larger losses than the local communities experiencing land degradation. The cost of soil fertility mining due to using land degrading management practices on maize, rice and wheat is estimated to be

  19. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ward, P.J.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Bouwman, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Ligtvoet, W.; Winsemius, H.C.

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global

  20. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  1. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  2. Global Assessment of High-Altitude Wind Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina L. Archer

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The available wind power resource worldwide at altitudes between 500 and 12,000 m above ground is assessed for the first time. Twenty-eight years of wind data from the reanalyses by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Department of Energy are analyzed and interpolated to study geographical distributions and persistency of winds at all altitudes. Furthermore, intermittency issues and global climate effects of large-scale extraction of energy from high-altitude winds are investigated.

  3. An Integrated Assessment of Investments towards Global Water Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea M. Bassi

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available To date there has been limited research on integrated water resource management, specifically regarding investments, from a global perspective, largely due to the complexity of the problem and to generally local water management practices. Water demand and supply are very often affected by international factors and with global climate change, population growth and increasing consumption, water management is now more than ever a global issue. This paper gives an overview of current and impending water problems while assessing investment needs for integrated water management as a possible solution to projected water challenges. The analysis compares a business as usual case (BAU to a scenario in which investments improve water efficiency use across sectors to curb demand, increase innovative supply from desalination and enhance conventional water resources management measures. System dynamics modeling is employed to represent the structural factors influencing water demand and supply in the context of an integrated framework including cross-sectoral linkages. The analysis confirms that sustainable water management is feasible, but it requires investments in the range of $145 billion per year between 2011 and 2050 (0.16% of GDP or $17/person/year and timely, effective action.

  4. Capturing the essence of developing endovascular expertise for the construction of a global assessment instrument

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech, B.; Lönn, L.; Schroeder, T. V.

    2010-01-01

    To explore what characterises the development of endovascular expertise and to construct a novel global assessment instrument.......To explore what characterises the development of endovascular expertise and to construct a novel global assessment instrument....

  5. Environmental Engineering Curricula assessment in the global world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, Enrica; Catelani, Marcantonio; Manfrida, Giampaolo; Valdiserri, Juna

    2014-05-01

    Environmental engineers are technicians with specific expertise on the sustainability of human presence in the environment. Among other global dilemmas, to the environmental engineers it is often demanded to be able in developing systematic, innovative solutions in order to simultaneously meet water and energy needs, to build resilience to natural and technological disasters, to more accurately gauge and manage countries' greenhouse gas emissions. The general objectives of the Environmental Engineers are to establish actions of environmental sustainability as well as to verify progress toward global goals or international commitments. The globalization of challenges and problems to be faced, leads, in general, to the globalization of the engineering profession. In particular, since the environmental issues are without boundaries, and many and different are the involved professions and the competences, the environmental engineer must have a multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary approach to adequately answer to the demand of technical innovative knowledge at global scale. The environmental engineers, more and more, are involved in international projects were the effective collaboration requires not only the capacity to communicate in a common technical language, but also the assurance of an adequate and common level of technical competences, knowledge and understanding. The Europe-based EUR ACE system, currently operated by ENAEE - European Network for Accreditation of Engineering Education, can represent the proper framework and accreditation system in order to provide a set of measures to assess the quality of engineering degree programmes in Europe and abroad. In the global frame of the knowledge triangle: education-innovation-research, the accreditation and quality assurance of engineering curricula in Europe is discussed with reference to the Environmental engineering curricula, of the 1st and 2nd cycle, based on the European Credit Transfer System and in

  6. Historical View of the Influences of Measurement and Writing Theories on the Practice of Writing Assessment in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behizadeh, Nadia; Engelhard, George, Jr.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the interactions among measurement theories, writing theories, and writing assessments in the United States from an historical perspective. The assessment of writing provides a useful framework for examining how theories influence, and in some cases fail to influence actual practice. Two research traditions…

  7. Assessing the Constructive Potential of Union Citizenship A Socio-Historical Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antje Wiener

    1997-09-01

    Full Text Available In European integration studies citizenship policy has not received much attention as a practice. Instead much of the literature has predominantly focused on legal assessments of Union citizenship shedding light on the limitations of supranational citizenship compared to the familiar statist concepts of citizenship. Legal approaches have thus often adopted a minimalist perspective on citizenship, establishing what Union citizenship is not leaving aside the constructive potential of Union citizenship. This paper seeks to demonstrate that a constructive perspective on the practice of citizenship facilitates valuable information about the creation of the institutionalised terms of citizenship over time. If it is true that Union citizenship is different from other types of citizenship, what is new about it? Constructive approaches suggest, that if we are to establish the dynamics which characterise Union citizenship analyses need to allow for a way of appreciating historical variability of context and contents of citizenship. To that end the major part of this paper seeks to develop a way of assessing the constructive potential of citizenship based on its newly institutionalised terms such as the shared values, objectives and regulations that have been established by citizenship policy over time. Beyond describing the emergence of EC/EU citizenship the paper promotes a systematic approach to reconstruct the policy in this supranational context. It is assumed that citizenship did not emerge out of the blue on the agenda of the Maastricht Intergovernmental Conference but that it is possible to identify agenda-setting steps in earlier stages of the policy process. If this assumption is correct, then a historical account could bring the various steps of citizenship policy which led to the history-making decision at Maastricht summit to the fore.

  8. Assessing the Constructive Potential of Union Citizenship – A Socio-Historical Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antje Wiener

    1997-09-01

    Full Text Available In European integration studies citizenship policy has not received much attention as a practice. Instead much of the literature has predominantly focused on legal assessments of Union citizenship shedding light on the limitations of supranational citizenship – compared to the familiar statist concepts of citizenship. Legal approaches have thus often adopted a minimalist perspective on citizenship, establishing what Union citizenship is not leaving aside the constructive potential of Union citizenship. This paper seeks to demonstrate that a constructive perspective on the practice of citizenship facilitates valuable information about the creation of the institutionalised terms of citizenship over time. If it is true that Union citizenship is different from other types of citizenship, what is new about it? Constructive approaches suggest, that if we are to establish the dynamics which characterise Union citizenship analyses need to allow for a way of appreciating historical variability of context and contents of citizenship. To that end the major part of this paper seeks to develop a way of assessing the constructive potential of citizenship based on its newly institutionalised terms such as the shared values, objectives and regulations that have been established by citizenship policy over time. Beyond describing the emergence of EC/EU citizenship the paper promotes a systematic approach to reconstruct the policy in this supranational context. It is assumed that citizenship did not emerge out of the blue on the agenda of the Maastricht Intergovernmental Conference but that it is possible to identify agenda-setting steps in earlier stages of the policy process. If this assumption is correct, then a historical account could bring the various steps of citizenship policy which led to the history-making decision at Maastricht summit to the fore.

  9. Evaluation of perioperative nutritional status with subjective global assessment method in patients undergoing gastrointestinal cancer surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdim, Aylin; Aktan, Ahmet Özdemir

    2017-01-01

    This study was designed to evaluate the perioperative nutritional status of patients undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal cancer using Subjective Global Assessment and surgeon behavior on nutritional support. We recruited 100 patients undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal cancer in one university and two state teaching hospitals. Subjective Global Assessment was administered to evaluate preoperative and postoperative nutritional status. Fifty-two patients in the state hospitals (Group 1) and 48 in the university hospital were assessed. Anthropometric and biochemical measurements were performed. Changes in preoperative Subjective Global Assessment scores and scores at the time of discharge and types of nutritional support were compared. Subjective Global Assessment-B was regarded as moderate and Subjective Global Assessment-C as heavy malnutrition. Ten patients had Subjective Global Assessment-B and 29 had Subjective Global Assessment-C malnutrition in Group 1 and nine had Subjective Global Assessment-B and 31 had Subjective Global Assessment-C malnutrition in Group 2 during preoperative assessment. Respective numbers in postoperative assessment were 12 for Subjective Global Assessment-B and 30 for Subjective Global Assessment-C in Group 1 and 14 for Subjective Global Assessment-B and 26 for Subjective Global Assessment-C in Group 2. There was no difference between two groups. Nutritional methods according to Subjective Global Assessment evaluation in pre- and postoperative periods were not different between the groups. This study demonstrated that the malnutrition rate is high among patients scheduled for gastrointestinal cancer surgery and the number of surgeons were inadequate to provide perioperative nutritional support. Both university and state hospitals had similar shortcomings. Subjective Global Assessment is an easy and reliable test and if utilized will be helpful to detect patients requiring nutritional support.

  10. Quantitative crystalline silica exposure assessment for a historical cohort epidemiologic study in the German porcelain industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birk, Thomas; Guldner, Karlheinz; Mundt, Kenneth A; Dahmann, Dirk; Adams, Robert C; Parsons, William

    2010-09-01

    A time-dependent quantitative exposure assessment of silica exposure among nearly 18,000 German porcelain workers was conducted. Results will be used to evaluate exposure-response disease risks. Over 8000 historical industrial hygiene (IH) measurements with original sampling and analysis protocols from 1954-2006 were obtained from the German Berufs- genossenschaft der keramischen-und Glas-Industrie (BGGK) and used to construct a job exposure matrix (JEM). Early measurements from different devices were converted to modern gravimetric equivalent values. Conversion factors were derived from parallel historical measurements and new side-by-side measurements using historical and modern devices in laboratory dust tunnels and active workplace locations. Exposure values were summarized and smoothed using LOESS regression; estimates for early years were derived using backward extrapolation techniques. Employee work histories were merged with JEM values to determine cumulative crystalline silica exposures for cohort members. Average silica concentrations were derived for six primary similar exposure groups (SEGs) for 1938-2006. Over 40% of the cohort accumulated 1 mg/m(3)-years. Nearly 5000 workers had cumulative crystalline silica estimates >1.5 mg/m(3)-years. Similar numbers of men and women fell into each cumulative exposure category, except for 1113 women and 1567 men in the highest category. Over half of those hired before 1960 accumulated >3 mg/m(3)-years crystalline silica compared with 4.9% of those hired after 1960. Among those ever working in the materials preparation area, half accumulated >3 mg/m(3)-year compared with 12% of those never working in this area. Quantitative respirable silica exposures were estimated for each member of this cohort, including employment periods for which sampling used now obsolete technologies. Although individual cumulative exposure estimates ranged from background to about 40 mg/m(3)-years, many of these estimates reflect long

  11. A global human health risk assessment for octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentry, Robinan; Franzen, Allison; Van Landingham, C; Greene, Tracy; Plotzke, Kathy

    2017-10-20

    Octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4) is a low-molecular-weight volatile cyclic siloxane, primarily used as an intermediate in the production of some widely-used industrial and consumer silicone based polymers and may be present as a component in a variety of consumer products. A global "harmonized" risk assessment was conducted to meet requirements for substance-specific risk assessments conducted by regulatory agencies such as USEPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), Health Canada's Chemical Management Program (CMP) and various independent scientific committees of the European Commission (e.g. the Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety (SCCS), the Scientific Committee on Health and Environmental Risks (SCHER)), as well as to provide guidance for chemical safety assessments under REACH in Europe. This risk assessment incorporates global exposure information combined with a Monte Carlo analysis to determine the most significant routes of exposure. Utilization of a multi-species, multi-route physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was included to estimate internal dose metrics, benchmark modeling was used to determine a point of departure (POD), and a margin of safety (MOS) evaluation was used to compare the estimates of intake with the POD. Because of the specific pharmacokinetic behaviors of D4 including high lipophilicity, high volatility with low blood-to-air partition coefficients and an extensive metabolic clearance that regulates tissue dose after exposure, the use of a PBPK model was essential to provide a comparison of a dose metric that reflects these processes. The characterization of the potential for adverse effects after exposure to D4 using a MOS approach based on an internal dose metric removes the subjective application of varying uncertainty factors from various regulatory agencies and allows examination of the differences between internal dose metrics associated with exposure and those associated with adverse effects. Copyright

  12. An assessment of global meteorological droughts based on HAPPI experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie

    2017-04-01

    Droughts caused water shortages could lead to serious consequences on the socioeconomic and environmental well-being. In the context of changing climate, droughts monitoring, attributions and impact assessments have been performed using observations (e.g., Sun et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2016) and climate model projections (e.g., Liu et al., 2016, 2017); with expectation that such scientific knowledge would feed into long-term adaptation and mitigation plans to tackle potentially unfavorable future drought impacts in a warming world. Inspired by the 2015 Paris Agreement, the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts) experiments were set up to better inform international policymakers about the socioeconomic and environmental impacts under less severe global warming conditions. This study aims to understand the potential shift in meteorological droughts from the past into the future on a global scale. Based on the HAPPI data, we evaluate the change in drought related indices (i.e., PET/P, PDSI) from the past to the future scenarios (1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius warming). Here we present some early results (MIROC5 as demonstration) on identified hotspots and discuss the differences in severity of droughts between these warming worlds and associated consequences. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1 Liu W, and Sun F, 2016. Assessing estimates of evaporative demand in climate models using observed pan evaporation over China. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere 121, 8329-8349 Zhang J, Sun F, Xu J, Chen Y, Sang Y, -F, and Liu C, 2016. Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model. Geophysical Research Letters 43, 206-213 Sun F, Roderick M, Farquhar G, 2012. Changes in the variability of global land precipitation

  13. Global Assessment of Groundwater Sustainability Based On Storage Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Brian F.; Caineta, Júlio; Nanteza, Jamiat

    2017-11-01

    The world's largest aquifers are a fundamental source of freshwater used for agricultural irrigation and to meet human water needs. Therefore, their stored volume of groundwater is linked with water security, which becomes more relevant during periods of drought. This work focuses on understanding large-scale groundwater changes, where we introduce an approach to evaluate groundwater sustainability at a global scale. We employ a groundwater drought index to assess performance metrics (reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and a combined sustainability index) for the largest and most productive global aquifers. Spatiotemporal changes in total water storage are derived from remote sensing observations of gravity anomalies, from which the groundwater drought index is inferred. The results reveal a complex relationship between the indicators, while considering monthly variability in groundwater storage. Combining the drought and sustainability indexes, as presented in this work, constitutes a measure for quantifying groundwater sustainability. This framework integrates changes in groundwater resources due to human influences and climate changes, thus opening a path to assess progress toward sustainable use and water security.

  14. Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Englhardt, Johanna; Boekhorst, Ellen; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale. M. Andres Diaz-Loaiza (1), Johanna Englhardt (1), Ellen de Boekhorst (1), Philip J. Ward (1) and Jeroen Aerts (1) (1) Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. andres.diazloaiza@vu.nl Floods are one of the most dangerous natural disasters for humanity, affecting many people every year. Quantitative risk models on a global scale are nowadays available tools for institutions and actors in charge of risk management in order to plan possible mitigation measures in case of flood risk events. Many of these models have been focus on potential economic damage, population and GDP exposure, but the potential casualties assessment has been left aside. This is partially due to the complexity of the problem itself, in which several variables like the age of a pedestrian (drag/exposed to a flood event), or his weight and swimming experience can be decisive for the complete understanding of the problem. In the present work is presented the advances for the development of a methodology in order to include in the GLOFRIS model a new indicator in case of flood risk events. Preliminary analysis relating the GDP with the potential casualties shows that undeveloped countries have more susceptibility to loss of life in case of flood events. This because the GDP indicator evidences as well the protection measures available in a country.

  15. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  16. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Ellis, E.C.; Letourneau, A.

    2011-01-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here

  17. Historical overview of diet assessment and food consumption surveys in Spain: assessment methods and applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morán Fagúndez, Luis Juan; Rivera Torres, Alejandra; González Sánchez, María Eugenia; de Torres Aured, Mari Lourdes; López-Pardo Martínez, Mercedes; Irles Rocamora, José Antonio

    2015-02-26

    The food consumption assessment methods are used in nutrition and health population surveys and are the basis for the development of guidelines, nutritional recommendations and health plans, The study of these issues is one of the major tasks of the research and health policy in developed countries. Major advances nationally in this area have been made since 1940, both in the reliability of the data and in the standardization of studies, which is a necessary condition to compare changes over time. In this article the history and application of different dietary surveys, dietary history and food frequency records are analyzed. Besides information from surveys conducted at a national level, the main data currently available for public health planning in nutrition comes from nutritional analysis of household budget surveys and food balance sheets, based on data provided by the Ministry of Agriculture. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2015. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  18. Timeline historical review of income and financial transactions: a reliable assessment of personal finances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Anne C; Serowik, Kristin L; Ablondi, Karen M; Rosen, Marc I

    2013-01-01

    The need for accurate and reliable information about income and resources available to individuals with psychiatric disabilities is critical for the assessment of need and evaluation of programs designed to alleviate financial hardship or affect finance allocation. Measurement of finances is ubiquitous in studies of economics, poverty, and social services. However, evidence has demonstrated that these measures often contain error. We compare the 1-week test-retest reliability of income and finance data from 24 adult psychiatric outpatients using assessment-as-usual (AAU) and a new instrument, the Timeline Historical Review of Income and Financial Transactions (THRIFT). Reliability estimates obtained with the THRIFT for Income (0.77), Expenses (0.91), and Debt (0.99) domains were significantly better than those obtained with AAU. Reliability estimates for Balance did not differ. THRIFT reduced measurement error and provided more reliable information than AAU for assessment of personal finances in psychiatric patients receiving Social Security benefits. The instrument also may be useful with other low-income groups.

  19. Historical Background on Assessment the Performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rechard, R.P.

    1999-06-01

    In 1979, six years after selecting the Delaware Basin as a potential disposal area, Congress authorized the US Department of Energy to build the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, as a research and development facility for the safe management, storage, and disposal of waste contaminated with transuranic radioisotopes. In 1998, 19 years after authorization and 25 years after site selection, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified that the WIPP disposal system complied with its regulations. The EPA's decision was primarily based on the results from a performance assessment conducted in 1996. This performance assessment was the culmination of four preliminary performance assessments conducted between 1989 and 1992. This report provides a historical setting and context for how the performance of the deep geologic repository at the WIPP was analyzed. Also included is background on political forces acting on the project. For example, the federal requirement to provide environmental impact statements and negotiated agreements with the State of New Mexico influenced the type of scientific areas that were investigated and the engineering analysis prior to 1989 for the WIPP.

  20. Large scale shallow landslides hazard assessment of the Inca Historical Sanctuary area (Peru)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delmonaco, G.; Margottini, C.; Martini, G.; Paolini, S.; Spizzichino, D.

    2009-04-01

    characterised by similar kinematics of movements. This situation enables the possibility to implement a spatial analysis for shallow landslides hazard assessment using the potentiality of a GIS. A physically-based approach using a simple geotechnical model (infinite slope) coupled with a rainfall infiltration temporal model, based on available historical precipitation records, has been implemented for the area of the Inca historical sanctuary providing a landslide hazard map. The same model has been applied also under pseudo-static conditions using the Newmark's method based on historical seismic analysis of the area. The data have been integrated by macroseismic observations collected through a specific historical-bibliographical investigation mainly based on the strongest earthquakes occurred in the area. The pseudo-static analysis has been calibrated on the seismic event occurred on 31st March 1650, with epicentral intensity of IX-X MSK, that produced induced shallow landslides in the surrounding valleys of Cuzco. The event can be associated to a 101km-length and 25km-width fault with main orientation similar to the main tectonic structures of the area. Probabilistic seismic hazard provide a maximum horizontal acceleration, for a 10%-exceeding probability, of 0,27g (50 yrs) and 0,31g (100 yrs) respectively. The landslide hazard maps can be used by local authorities as predictive tool for calibrating landslide mitigation measures, land use planning and management and for improving the resilience of the Inca Sanctuary to natural hazards.

  1. Quantitative assessment of historical coastal landfill contamination using in-situ field portable XRF (FPXRF)

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Shea, Francis; Spencer, Kate; Brasington, James

    2014-05-01

    Historically, waste was deposited on low value, easily accessible coastal land (e.g. marsh land). Within England and Wales alone, there are over 5000 historical landfills situated within coastal areas at risk of flooding at a 1 in 100 year return period (Environment Agency, 2012). Historical sites were constructed prior to relevant legislation, and have no basal or side wall engineering, and the waste constituents are mostly unknown. In theory, contaminant concentrations should be reduced through natural attenuation as the leachate plume migrates through surrounding fine-grained inter-tidal sediments before reaching receptor waters. However, erosion resulting from rising sea level and increased storm intensity may re-distribute these sediments and release associated contaminants into the estuarine and coastal environment. The diffuse discharge from these sites has not been quantified and this presents a problem for those landfill managers who are required to complete EIAs. An earlier detailed field campaign at Newlands landfill site, on the Thames Estuary, UK identified a sub-surface (~2m depth) contaminant plume extending c. 20 m from the landfill boundary into surrounding fine-grained saltmarsh sediments. These saltmarsh sediments are risk of being eroded releasing their contaminant load to the Thames Estuary. The aims of this work were to; 1) assess whether this plume is representative of other historical landfills with similar characteristics and 2) to develop a rapid screening methodology using field portable XRF that could be used to identify potential risk of other coastal landfill sites. GIS was used to select landfill sites of similar age, hydrological regime and sedimentary setting in the UK, for comparison. Collection of sediment samples and analysis by ICP OES is expensive and time-consuming, therefore cores were extracted and analysed with a Niton Goldd XRF in-situ. Contaminant data were available immediately and the sampling strategy could be adapted

  2. QUANTITATIVE MEASUREMENT AND ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION OF COMPANIES AND MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    N. Kovtun; A. Ignatyuk

    2015-01-01

    The results of improving the author’s methodology linked with the assessment of companies’ and markets’ globalization level were presented in this paper. Based on the analysis of the global companies’ and global markets’ features referred to in scientific literature, the specifications which can be used to determine the globalization level of companies and markets were suggested. In addition, the globalization level of the largest top-ten companies (according to the rating of Forbes Global 20...

  3. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3 and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to

  4. Counterfeit Drug Penetration into Global Legitimate Medicine Supply Chains: A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Tim K.; Liang, Bryan A.; York, Peter; Kubic, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Counterfeit medicines are a global public health risk. We assess counterfeit reports involving the legitimate supply chain using 2009–2011 data from the Pharmaceutical Security Institute Counterfeit Incident System (PSI CIS) database that uses both open and nonpublic data sources. Of the 1,510 identified CIS reports involving counterfeits, 27.6% reported China as the source country of the incident/detection. Further, 51.3% were reported as counterfeit but the specific counterfeit subcategory was not known or verifiable. The most prevalent therapeutic category was anti-infectives (21.1%) with most reports originating from health-related government agencies. Geographically, Asian and Latin American regions and, economically, middle-income markets were most represented. A total of 127 (64.8%) of a total of 196 countries had no legitimate supply chain CIS counterfeit reports. Improvements in surveillance, including detection of security breaches, data collection, analysis, and dissemination are urgently needed to address public health needs to combat the global counterfeit medicines trade. PMID:25897059

  5. Historical precedence and technical requirements of biological weapons use : a threat assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estes, Daniel P.; Vogel, Kathleen Margaret; Gaudioso, Jennifer Marie; Hickok, Lauren T.; Jung, Danielle F.; Barnett, Natalie Beth; Frerichs, Rebecca L.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

    2004-05-01

    The threat from biological weapons is assessed through both a comparative historical analysis of the patterns of biological weapons use and an assessment of the technological hurdles to proliferation and use that must be overcome. The history of biological weapons is studied to learn how agents have been acquired and what types of states and substate actors have used agents. Substate actors have generally been more willing than states to use pathogens and toxins and they have focused on those agents that are more readily available. There has been an increasing trend of bioterrorism incidents over the past century, but states and substate actors have struggled with one or more of the necessary technological steps. These steps include acquisition of a suitable agent, production of an appropriate quantity and form, and effective deployment. The technological hurdles associated with the steps present a real barrier to producing a high consequence event. However, the ever increasing technological sophistication of society continually lowers the barriers, resulting in a low but increasing probability of a high consequence bioterrorism event.

  6. Post flooding damage assessment of earth dams and historical reservoirs using non-invasive geophysical techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sentenac, Philippe; Benes, Vojtech; Budinsky, Vladimir; Keenan, Helen; Baron, Ron

    2017-11-01

    This paper describes the use of four geophysical techniques to map the structural integrity of historical earth reservoir embankments which are susceptible to natural decay with time. The four techniques that were used to assess the post flood damage were 1. A fast scanning technique using a dipole electromagnetic profile apparatus (GEM2), 2. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) in order to obtain a high resolution image of the shape of the damaged/seepage zone, 3. Self-Potential surveys were carried out to relate the detected seepage evolution and change of the water displacement inside the embankment, 4. The washed zone in the areas with piping was characterised with microgravimetry. The four geophysical techniques used were evaluated against the case studies of two reservoirs in South Bohemia, Czech Republic. A risk approach based on the Geophysical results was undertaken for the reservoir embankments. The four techniques together enabled a comprehensive non-invasive assessment whereby remedial action could be recommended where required. Conclusions were also drawn on the efficiency of the techniques to be applied for embankments with wood structures.

  7. Damage Identification and Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Historic Masonry Chimney

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Giovanna Masciotta

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The present paper deals with the dynamic characterisation of a historical masonry chimney aimed at identifying the structural damage and assessing its seismic performance. The structure was severely damaged by a lightning accident and in-depth repair works were executed to re-instate its sound configuration. The case study is fully detailed, including the aspects of survey, inspection, diagnosis, and evolution of the dynamic properties of the system throughout the structural intervention. Considering the explicit dependence of the power spectral densities of measured nodal processes on their frequency content, a spectrum-driven algorithm is used to detect and locate the damage. The paper shows that the eigenparameters obtained from the decomposition of the response power spectrum matrix are sensitive to system’s changes caused by evolutionary damage scenarios, thereby resulting excellent indicators for assessing both the presence and position of structural vulnerabilities. The results are compared with the ones from other modal-based damage identification methods and the strengths/limitations of the tools currently available in literature are extensively discussed. Finally, based on the crack pattern surveyed before the repair works, the weakest links of the chimney are identified and the most meaningful collapse mechanisms are analysed to verify the seismic capacity of the structure. According to the results of the kinematic analysis, the chimney does withstand the maximum site peak ground acceleration.

  8. National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charles H.; Romine, Bradley M.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy beaches of the United States are some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations. Coastal property constitutes some of the most valuable real estate in the country. Beaches are an ephemeral environment between water and land with unique and fragile natural ecosystems that have evolved in equilibrium with the ever-changing winds, waves, and water levels. Beachfront lands are the site of intense residential and commercial development even though they are highly vulnerable to several natural hazards, including marine inundation, flooding and drainage problems, effects of storms, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. Because the U.S. population continues to shift toward the coast where valuable coastal property is vulnerable to erosion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a national assessment of coastal change. One aspect of this effort, the National Assessment of Shoreline Change, uses shoreline position as a proxy for coastal change because shoreline position is one of the most commonly monitored indicators of environmental change (for example, Fletcher, 1992; Dolan and others, 1991; Douglas and others, 1998; Galgano and others, 1998). Additionally, the National Research Council (1990) recommended the use of historical shoreline analysis in the absence of a widely accepted model of shoreline change.

  9. The Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) in clinical practice--substance and reliability as judged by intraclass correlations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dyrborg, J; Larsen, F W; Nielsen, S

    2000-01-01

    Studies on the inter-rater reliability on the Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and the Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) involving different subgroups of 145 outpatients from 4 to 16 years of age showed fair to substantial intraclass correlations of 0.59 to 0.90. Raters...

  10. Globalization and social inequalities in Europe: assessment and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Brady

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to consider the social cohesion of the European Union which is today subjected to significant constraints by globalization and by the growing economic divergence between member States, especially in the Euro zone. The statistical assessment of this situation allows us to clearly establish the ascent of poverty and exclusion in Europe. The European Commission as well as the civil society is trying to remedy this crisis notably by means of European syndicalism whose propositions are closely analyzed in the following article. That being said, the macro-economic context is very damaged today and it unequally affects the member States of the Euro zone. A strength or even a mutation in European regulation seems necessary to promote a new economic and social regime in the Union.

  11. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew C. Fisher

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

  12. [A global scale for assessment of the family environment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, H C; Wolgensinger, E

    2004-02-01

    Reliability of the Global Family Environment Scale (GFES) which has been developed in Australia and translated into German. Comparison of ratings and reliability of written case vignettes by international raters and clinicians of the own institution. Assessment of interrater-reliability of clinical cases before and after group trainings with introduction of the manual and discussion of written case vignettes. The ratings of seven training case vignettes were rather similar by clinicians from Zurich and in an international study by the Australian authors. In the same way interrater agreements were similar in the two studies and satisfying. In the present study a single training session in comparison to reading the manual did not result in higher interrater agreement. The existing psychometric properties and the availability of a translation represent important prerequisites for the applicability of the GFES in the German-speaking countries.

  13. Pollution exposure on marine protected areas: A global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partelow, Stefan; von Wehrden, Henrik; Horn, Olga

    2015-11-15

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) face many challenges in their aim to effectively conserve marine ecosystems. In this study we analyze the extent of pollution exposure on the global fleet of MPAs. This includes indicators for current and future pollution and the implications for regionally clustered groups of MPAs with similar biophysical characteristics. To cluster MPAs into characteristic signature groups, their bathymetry, baseline biodiversity, distance from shore, mean sea surface temperature and mean sea surface salinity were used. We assess the extent at which each signature group is facing exposure from multiple pollution types. MPA groups experience similar pollution exposure on a regional level. We highlight how the challenges that MPAs face can be addressed through governance at the appropriate scale and design considerations for integrated terrestrial and marine management approaches within regional level networks. Furthermore, we present diagnostic social-ecological indicators for addressing the challenges facing unsuccessful MPAs with practical applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Using Political Science Courses to Inculcate Political Orientations: A Historical Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamare, James W.

    1975-01-01

    Survey of historical evidence concerning role of teaching among American political scientists, emphasizing teaching of college undergraduates with students' sociopolitical perspectives foremost in mind. (Author/ND)

  15. Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Gambhir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2, to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.

  16. Multi-Directional Seismic Assessment of Historical Masonry Buildings by Means of Macro-Element Modelling: Application to a Building Damaged during the L’Aquila Earthquake (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cannizzaro

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The experience of the recent earthquakes in Italy caused a shocking impact in terms of loss of human life and damage in buildings. In particular, when it comes to ancient constructions, their cultural and historical value overlaps with the economic and social one. Among the historical structures, churches have been the object of several studies which identified the main characteristics of the seismic response and the most probable collapse mechanisms. More rarely, academic studies have been devoted to ancient palaces, since they often exhibit irregular and complicated arrangement of the resisting elements, which makes their response very difficult to predict. In this paper, a palace located in L’Aquila, severely damaged by the seismic event of 2009 is the object of an accurate study. A historical reconstruction of the past strengthening interventions as well as a detailed geometric relief is performed to implement detailed numerical models of the structure. Both global and local models are considered and static nonlinear analyses are performed considering the influence of the input direction on the seismic vulnerability of the building. The damage pattern predicted by the numerical models is compared with that observed after the earthquake. The seismic vulnerability assessments are performed in terms of ultimate peak ground acceleration (PGA using capacity curves and the Italian code spectrum. The results are compared in terms of ultimate ductility demand evaluated performing nonlinear dynamic analyses considering the actual registered seismic input of L’Aquila earthquake.

  17. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  18. On the Assessment of Global Terrestrial Reference Frame Temporal Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ampatzidis, Dimitrios; Koenig, Rolf; Zhu, Shengyuan

    2015-04-01

    Global Terrestrial Reference Frames (GTRFs) as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) provide reliable 4-D position information (3-D coordinates and their evolution through time). The given 3-D velocities play a significant role in precise position acquisition and are estimated from long term coordinate time series from the space-geodetic techniques DORIS, GNSS, SLR, and VLBI. GTRFs temporal evolution is directly connected with their internal stability: The more intense and inhomogeneous velocity field, the less stable TRF is derived. The assessment of the quality of the GTRF is mainly realized by comparing it to each individual technique's reference frame. E.g the comparison of GTRFs to SLR-only based TRF gives the sense of the ITRF stability with respect to the Geocenter and scale and their associated rates respectively. In addition, the comparison of ITRF to the VLBI-only based TRF can be used for the scale validation. However, till now there is not any specified methodology for the total assessment (in terms of origin, orientation and scale respectively) of the temporal evolution and GTRFs associated accuracy. We present a new alternative diagnostic tool for the assessment of GTRFs temporal evolution based on the well-known time-dependent Helmert type transformation formula (three shifts, three rotations and scale rates respectively). The advantage of the new methodology relies on the fact that it uses the full velocity field of the TRF and therefore all points not just the ones common to different techniques. It also examines simultaneously rates of origin, orientation and scale. The methodology is presented and implemented to the two existing GTRFs on the market (ITRF and DTRF which is computed from DGFI) , the results are discussed. The results also allow to compare directly each GTRF dynamic behavior. Furthermore, the correlations of the estimated parameters can also provide useful information to the proposed GTRFs assessment scheme.

  19. A global experimental dataset for assessing grain legume production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cernay, Charles; Pelzer, Elise; Makowski, David

    2016-09-01

    Grain legume crops are a significant component of the human diet and animal feed and have an important role in the environment, but the global diversity of agricultural legume species is currently underexploited. Experimental assessments of grain legume performances are required, to identify potential species with high yields. Here, we introduce a dataset including results of field experiments published in 173 articles. The selected experiments were carried out over five continents on 39 grain legume species. The dataset includes measurements of grain yield, aerial biomass, crop nitrogen content, residual soil nitrogen content and water use. When available, yields for cereals and oilseeds grown after grain legumes in the crop sequence are also included. The dataset is arranged into a relational database with nine structured tables and 198 standardized attributes. Tillage, fertilization, pest and irrigation management are systematically recorded for each of the 8,581 crop*field site*growing season*treatment combinations. The dataset is freely reusable and easy to update. We anticipate that it will provide valuable information for assessing grain legume production worldwide.

  20. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  1. [Software for performing a global phenotypic and genotypic nutritional assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    García de Diego, L; Cuervo, M; Martínez, J A

    2013-01-01

    different aspect of the nutritional status of the patient. UNyDIET is a global computer program, customized and upgradeable, easy to use and versatile, aimed to health specialists, medical staff, dietitians, nutritionists, scientists and educators. This tool can be used as a working instrument in programs promoting health, nutritional and clinical assessments as well as in the evaluation of health care quality, in epidemiological studies, in nutrition intervention programs and teaching. Copyright © AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2013. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  2. Assessment of the DOE/NREL Historically Black College and University Photovoltaic Research Associates Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Posey-Eddy, F.; McConnell, R. D.

    2002-08-01

    This report details the DOE/NREL Historically Black College and University (HBCU) Photovoltaic Research Associates Program, a small but remarkable program that directly affected dozens of minority undergraduate students in ways that changed many of their lives. The progress and accomplishments of undergraduates within the nine participating universities were monitored and assessed through their presentations at an annual NREL-sponsored HBCU conference. Although the funding was small, typically $400,000 per year, the money made a significant impact. The best students sometimes went on to the nation's top graduate schools (e.g., MIT) or important management positions in large companies. Other students had opportunities to learn how renewable energy could positively affect their lives and their neighbors' lives. A few were lucky enough to install photovoltaic lighting and water-pumping systems in Africa, and to see and feel firsthand the technical and emotional benefits of this technology for families and villages. Two of the schools, Texas Southern University and Central State University, were particularly successful in leveraging their DOE/NREL funding to obtain additional funding for expanded programs.

  3. Assessment of Retrofitting Measures for a Large Historic Research Facility Using a Building Energy Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Tae Chae

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A calibrated building simulation model was developed to assess the energy performance of a large historic research building. The complexity of space functions and operational conditions with limited availability of energy meters makes it hard to understand the end-used energy consumption in detail and to identify appropriate retrofitting options for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. An energy simulation model was developed to study the energy usage patterns not only at a building level, but also of the internal thermal zones, and system operations. The model was validated using site measurements of energy usage and a detailed audit of the internal load conditions, system operation, and space programs to minimize the discrepancy between the documented status and actual operational conditions. Based on the results of the calibrated model and end-used energy consumption, the study proposed potential energy conservation measures (ECMs for the building envelope, HVAC system operational methods, and system replacement. It also evaluated each ECM from the perspective of both energy and utility cost saving potentials to help retrofitting plan decision making. The study shows that the energy consumption of the building was highly dominated by the thermal requirements of laboratory spaces. Among other ECMs the demand management option of overriding the setpoint temperature is the most cost effective measure.

  4. The Epidemic of Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome, Historical References of Its’ Origins, Assessment, and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Gomez-Pomar

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS refers to a constellation of signs that are present in some newborn infants resulting from the abrupt cessation of passive transfer of maternal opioids used during pregnancy. The classic NAS refers to infants born to mothers who used opioids during pregnancy, but the term has broadened to include infants whose mothers have used or abused other psychoactive substances during pregnancy that contribute to the expression of the syndrome. Pregnant women who use opioids do so illicitly, and/or as medically prescribed for pain relief, and/or as medication assisted treatment for opioid dependence. The first case of NAS in infants and the subsequent treatment (or lack thereof was reported in 1875 and was called Congenital Morphinism. By 2012, the incidence of NAS increased to more than 30 per 1,000 hospital live births, along with an increase in the number of infants being treated pharmacologically for NAS, resulting in an increase in the length of stay and healthcare expenses. We present historical references on NAS, the various factors and events that led to its increasing prevalence and today’s current epidemic. We also review the current tools to assess infants with NAS and treatment options in its management.

  5. Measurement of thermophysical properties coupled with LCA assessment for the optimization of a historical building retrofit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortolin, A.; Bison, P.; Cadelano, G.; Ferrarini, G.; Fortuna, S.

    2015-11-01

    Historical buildings are a significant part of the Italian building stock and, in most cases, need deep refurbishment interventions to reach the energy criteria required by the current standards. A workflow that integrates on-site surveys and building modeling is mandatory to obtain effective energy saving measures. This work describes the analysis and modeling of the San Vito alla Rivera church, a XIV century building that was damaged during 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, suffering a partial collapse of the façade and of the roof. The latter was selected for a complete restoration that could improve its thermal performance while maintaining, as much as possible, the original structure. Several elements of the roof were collected in situ in order to measure, in laboratory, its thermophysical properties applying standard techniques and alternative methods based on infrared thermography. The accurate characterization of the materials was the starting point for the estimation of the environmental impact of the retrofit aimed to reach a defined thermal transmittance. A model of the building was created with TRNSYS software to calculate the energy consumption before and after the intervention. A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) analysis was conducted on different insulation materials to determine the one with the lowest impact.

  6. Assessing the Cost of Global Biodiversity and Conservation Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juffe-Bignoli, Diego; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Jenkins, Richard B; Boe, Kaia; Hoffmann, Michael; Angulo, Ariadne; Bachman, Steve; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Carpenter, Kent E; Comer, Pat J; Cox, Neil; Cuttelod, Annabelle; Darwall, William R T; Di Marco, Moreno; Fishpool, Lincoln D C; Goettsch, Bárbara; Heath, Melanie; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hutton, Jon; Johnson, Tim; Joolia, Ackbar; Keith, David A; Langhammer, Penny F; Luedtke, Jennifer; Nic Lughadha, Eimear; Lutz, Maiko; May, Ian; Miller, Rebecca M; Oliveira-Miranda, María A; Parr, Mike; Pollock, Caroline M; Ralph, Gina; Rodríguez, Jon Paul; Rondinini, Carlo; Smart, Jane; Stuart, Simon; Symes, Andy; Tordoff, Andrew W; Woodley, Stephen; Young, Bruce; Kingston, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by standards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge products for biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decision makers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largely undocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintaining four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary data collected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US$160 million (range: US$116-204 million), plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278-308 person-years) valued at US$ 14 million (range US$12-16 million), were invested in these four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financing was provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnel costs. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowledge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were not possible to estimate for 2013) is US$6.5 million in total (range: US$6.2-6.7 million). We estimated that an additional US$114 million will be needed to reach pre-defined baselines of data coverage for all the four knowledge products, and that once achieved, annual maintenance costs will be approximately US$12 million. These costs are much lower than those to maintain many other, similarly important, global knowledge products. Ensuring that biodiversity and conservation knowledge products are sufficiently up to date, comprehensive and accurate is fundamental to inform decision-making for

  7. Assessment of the global impact of aerosols on tropospheric oxidants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tie, Xuexi; Madronich, Sasha; Walters, Stacy; Edwards, David P.; Ginoux, Paul; Mahowald, Natalie; Zhang, Renyi; Lou, Chao; Brasseur, Guy

    2005-02-01

    We present here a fully coupled global aerosol and chemistry model for the troposphere. The model is used to assess the interactions between aerosols and chemical oxidants in the troposphere, including (1) the conversion from gas-phase oxidants into the condensed phase during the formation of aerosols, (2) the heterogeneous reactions occurring on the surface of aerosols, and (3) the effect of aerosols on ultraviolet radiation and photolysis rates. The present study uses the global three-dimensional chemical/transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2), in which aerosols are coupled with the model. The model accounts for the presence of sulfate, soot, primary organic carbon, ammonium nitrate, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust particles. The simulated global distributions of the aerosols are analyzed and evaluated using satellite measurements (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) and surface measurements. The results suggest that in northern continental regions the tropospheric aerosol loading is highest in Europe, North America, and east Asia. Sulfate, organic carbon, black carbon, and ammonium nitrate are major contributions for the high aerosol loading in these regions. Aerosol loading is also high in the Amazon and in Africa. In these areas the aerosols consist primarily of organic carbon and black carbon. Over the southern high-latitude ocean (around 60°S), high concentrations of sea-salt aerosol are predicted. The concentration of mineral dust is highest over the Sahara and, as a result of transport, spread out into adjacent regions. The model and MODIS show similar geographical distributions of aerosol particles. However, the model overestimates the sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol in the eastern United States, Europe, and east Asia. In the region where aerosol loading is high, aerosols have important impacts on tropospheric ozone and other oxidants. The model suggests that

  8. Dependency of Crop Production between Global Breadbaskets: A Copula Approach for the Assessment of Global and Regional Risk Pools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaupp, Franziska; Pflug, Georg; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Hall, Jim; Dadson, Simon

    2017-11-01

    As recent events have shown, simultaneous crop losses in different parts of the world can cause serious risks to global food security. However, to date, little is known about the spatial dependency of lower than expected crop yields from global breadbaskets. This especially applies in the case of extreme events, i.e., where one or more breadbaskets are experiencing far below average yields. Without such information, risk management approaches cannot be applied and vulnerability to extremes may remain high or even increase in the future around the world. We tackle both issues from an empirical perspective focusing on wheat yield. Interdependencies between historically observed wheat yield deviations in five breadbaskets (United States, Argentina, India, China, and Australia) are estimated via copula approaches that can incorporate increasing tail dependencies. In doing so, we are able to attach probabilities to interregional as well as global yield losses. To address the robustness of our results, we apply three different methods for constructing multivariate copulas: vine copulas, ordered coupling using a minimax approach, and hierarchical structuring. We found interdependencies between states within breadbaskets that led us to the conclusion that risk pooling for extremes is less favorable on the regional level. However, notwithstanding evidence of global climatic teleconnections that may influence crop production, we also demonstrate empirically that wheat production losses are independent between global breadbaskets, which strengthens the case for interregional risk pooling strategies. We argue that through interregional risk pooling, postdisaster liabilities of governments and international donors could be decreased. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Historical Exposures to Chemicals at the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant: A Pilot Retrospective Exposure Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robertson, Janeen Denise [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1999-02-01

    In a mortality study of white males who had worked at the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant between 1952 and 1979, an increased number of deaths from benign and unspecified intracranial neoplasms was found. A case-control study nested within this cohort investigated the hypothesis that an association existed between brain tumor death and exposure to either internally deposited plutonium or external ionizing radiation. There was no statistically significant association found between estimated radiation exposure from internally deposited plutonium and the development of brain tumors. Exposure by job or work area showed no significant difference between the cohort and the control groups. An update of the study found elevated risk estimates for (1) all lymphopoietic neoplasms, and (2) all causes of death in employees with body burdens greater than or equal to two nanocuries of plutonium. There was an excess of brain tumors for the entire cohort. Similar cohort studies conducted on worker populations from other plutonium handling facilities have not yet shown any elevated risks for brain tumors. Historically, the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant used large quantities of chemicals in their production operations. The use of solvents, particularly carbon tetrachloride, was unique to Rocky Flats. No investigation of the possible confounding effects of chemical exposures was done in the initial studies. The objectives of the present study are to (1) investigate the history of chemical use at the Rocky Flats facility; (2) locate and analyze chemical monitoring information in order to assess employee exposure to the chemicals that were used in the highest volume; and (3) determine the feasibility of establishing a chemical exposure assessment model that could be used in future epidemiology studies.

  10. National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerio, Peter; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Reid, David; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George

    2013-01-01

    shoreline change analyses incorporated only four total shorelines to represent specific time periods. This assessment of the PNW incorporates all available shorelines that meet minimum quality standards for resolution and positional accuracy. Shoreline change evaluations are based on a comparison of historical shoreline positions digitized from maps or aerial photographic data sources with recent shorelines, at least one of which is derived from lidar surveys. The historical shorelines cover a variety of time periods ranging from the 1800s through the 1980s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all available shoreline data and short-term rates of change are calculated using the lidar shoreline and the historical shoreline that will produce an assessment for a 15- to 35-year period. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of only the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. The PNW coast was subdivided into eight analysis regions for the purpose of graphically reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the entire PNW coast was 0.9 meter per year (m/yr) of progradation with an uncertainty of 0.07 m/yr. This rate is based on 8,823 individual transects, of which 36 percent was determined to be eroding. Long-term shoreline change was generally more progradational in Washington than in Oregon. This is primarily due to the influence of the Columbia River and human perturbations to the natural system, particularly the construction of jetties at both the mouth of the Columbia River and at Grays Harbor, Washington. The majority of the beaches in southwestern Washington have responded to these large-scale engineered structures by experiencing dramatic beach progradation during the past century. Although these beaches are still responding to the human

  11. Global assessment of coastal aquifer state and its vulnerability respect to Sea Water Intrusion. Application to several Mediterranean Coastal Aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Leticia; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Morell, Ignacio

    2017-04-01

    In this research we propose a method for a global assessment of coastal aquifer state and its vulnerability to Sea Water Intrusion (SWI). It is based on two indices, the MART index, which summarize the global significance of the SWI phenomenon, and the L_GALDIT for a lumped assessment of the vulnerability to SWI. Both of them can be useful as a tool to assess coastal groundwater bodies in risk of not achieving good status in accordance with the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000) and to identify possible management alternative to reduce existing impacts. They can be obtained even from a reduced number of data (in the MART case only depend on the geometry and available aquifer state data) with simple calculations, which have been implemented in a general GIS tool that can be easily applied to other case studies. The MART index in an aquifer is related with the total mass of chloride in the aquifer due to sea water intrusion and can be obtained by simple linear operations of volume and concentrations that can be deduced from a schematic conceptual cross-section approach (orthogonal to the shore line) defined to summarize the intrusion volume in the aquifer. At a certain historical time, this representative aquifer cross-section can be defined in a systhematic way from the aquifer geometry, the specific yield, and the hydraulic head and chloride concentration fields that can be deduced from the available information by using appropriate interpolation methods. Following the proposed procedure we will finally obtain a summary of the historical significance of the SWI in an aquifer at different spatial resolution: 3D salinity concentration maps, 2D representative conceptual cross-section of intrusion and the MART lumped significance index. The historical evolution of the MART can be employed to perform a global assessment of the resilience and trends of global significance of the SWI in an aquifer. It can be useful to compare the significance of intrusion problems in

  12. Porphyry copper assessment of western Central Asia: Chapter N in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Byron R.; Mars, John L.; Denning, Paul D.; Phillips, Jeffrey D.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Zientek, Michael L.; Dicken, Connie L.; Drew, Lawrence J.; with contributions from Alexeiev, Dmitriy; Seltmann, Reimar; Herrington, Richard J.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey conducted an assessment of resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in the western Central Asia countries of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and the southern Urals of Kazakhstan and Russia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits; (2) compile a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) where data permit, estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates the amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in those undiscovered deposits.

  13. Porphyry copper assessment of Southeast Asia and Melanesia: Chapter D in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Dicken, Connie L.; Drenth, Benjamin J.; Ludington, Steve; Robinson,, Gilpin R.; Setiabudi, Bambang Tjahjono; Sukserm, Wudhikarn; Sunuhadi, Dwi Nugroho; Wah, Alexander Yan Sze; Zientek, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with member countries of the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) on an assessment of the porphyry copper resources of Southeast Asia and Melanesia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The region hosts world-class porphyry copper deposits and underexplored areas that are likely to contain undiscovered deposits. Examples of known porphyry copper deposits include Batu Hijau and Grasberg in Indonesia; Panguna, Frieda River, and Ok Tedi in Papua New Guinea; and Namosi in Fiji.

  14. Aid and the symbiosis of global redistribution and development: Comparative historical lessons from two icons of development studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.M. Fischer (Andrew Martín)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThis study examines the question of aid effectiveness through a comparative historical analysis of the external financing constraints of two icons of development studies: South Korea and Brazil. The selection of these contrasting cases is based on a method of difference, designed to

  15. Globalizing Historically Black Business Schools: A Case Study of the Application of Modern Pedagogical Theories of Internationalizing Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kedia, Ben L.; Clampit, Jack; Gaffney, Nolan

    2014-01-01

    The AACSB and AIB have each issued reports aimed at ensuring the internationalization of business schools. Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs)--as underresourced entities serving an underprivileged constituency--may need additional attention. Unfortunately, neither the AACSB nor AIB reports mention HBCUs. The broader literature is…

  16. Guidelines for rating Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aas IH Monrad

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF is a scoring system for the severity of illness in psychiatry. It is used clinically in many countries, as well as in research, but studies have shown several problems with GAF, for example concerning its validity and reliability. Guidelines for rating are important. The present study aimed to identify the current status of guidelines for rating GAF, and relevant factors and gaps in knowledge for the development of improved guidelines. Methods A thorough literature search was conducted. Results Few studies of existing guidelines have been conducted; existing guidelines are short; and rating has a subjective element. Seven main categories were identified as being important in relation to further development of guidelines: (1 general points about guidelines for rating GAF; (2 introduction to guidelines, with ground rules; (3 starting scoring at the top, middle or bottom level of the scale; (4 scoring for different time periods and of different values (highest, lowest or average; (5 the finer grading of the scale; (6 different guidelines for different conditions; and (7 different languages and cultures. Little information is available about how rules for rating are understood by different raters: the final score may be affected by whether the rater starts at the top, middle or bottom of the scale; there is little data on which value/combination of GAF values to record; guidelines for scoring within 10-point intervals are limited; there is little empirical information concerning the suitability of existing guidelines for different conditions and patient characteristics; and little is known about the effects of translation into different languages or of different cultural understanding. Conclusions Few studies have dealt specifically with guidelines for rating GAF. Current guidelines for rating GAF are not comprehensive, and relevant points for new guidelines are presented. Theoretical and

  17. Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Marle, Margreet J. E.; Kloster, Silvia; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Field, Robert D.; Arneth, Almut; Forrest, Matthew; Hantson, Stijn; Kehrwald, Natalie M.; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stéphane; Yue, Chao; Kaiser, Johannes W.; van der Werf, Guido R.

    2017-09-01

    Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr-1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled

  18. Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. E. van Marle

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr−1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and

  19. Accuracy Assessment of Recent Global Ocean Tide Models around Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, J.; Li, F.; Zhang, S.; Ke, H.; Zhang, Q.; Li, W.

    2017-09-01

    Due to the coverage limitation of T/P-series altimeters, the lack of bathymetric data under large ice shelves, and the inaccurate definitions of coastlines and grounding lines, the accuracy of ocean tide models around Antarctica is poorer than those in deep oceans. Using tidal measurements from tide gauges, gravimetric data and GPS records, the accuracy of seven state-of-the-art global ocean tide models (DTU10, EOT11a, GOT4.8, FES2012, FES2014, HAMTIDE12, TPXO8) is assessed, as well as the most widely-used conventional model FES2004. Four regions (Antarctic Peninsula region, Amery ice shelf region, Filchner-Ronne ice shelf region and Ross ice shelf region) are separately reported. The standard deviations of eight main constituents between the selected models are large in polar regions, especially under the big ice shelves, suggesting that the uncertainty in these regions remain large. Comparisons with in situ tidal measurements show that the most accurate model is TPXO8, and all models show worst performance in Weddell sea and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf regions. The accuracy of tidal predictions around Antarctica is gradually improving.

  20. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jerome; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, James A.; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  1. Assessing Threats and Conservation Status of Historical Centers of Oak Richness in California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Jane Easterday

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Oak trees are emblematic of California landscapes, they serve as keystone cultural and ecological species and as indicators of natural biological diversity. As historically undeveloped landscapes are increasingly converted to urban environments, endemic oak woodland extent is reduced, which underscores the importance of strategic placement and reintroduction of oaks and woodland landscape for the maintenance of biodiversity and reduction of habitat fragmentation. This paper investigated the effects of human urban development on oak species in California by first modeling historical patterns of richness for eight oak tree species using historical map and plot data from the California Vegetation Type Mapping (VTM collection. We then examined spatial intersections between hot spots of historical oak richness and modern urban and conservation lands and found that impacts from development and conservation vary by both species and richness. Our findings suggest that the impact of urban development on oaks has been small within the areas of highest oak richness but that areas of highest oak richness are also poorly conserved. Third, we argue that current policy measures are inadequate to conserve oak woodlands and suggest regions to prioritize acquisition of conservation lands as well as examine urban regions where historic centers of oak richness were lost as potential frontiers for oak reintroduction. We argue that urban planning could benefit from the adoption of historical data and modern species distribution modelling techniques primarily used in natural resources and conservation fields to better locate hot spots of species richness, understand where habitats and species have been lost historically and use this evidence as incentive to recover what was lost and preserve what still exists. This adoption of historical data and modern techniques would then serve as a paradigm shift in the way Urban Planners recognize, quantify, and use landscape

  2. Historical nectar assessment reveals the fall and rise of Britain in bloom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baude, Mathilde; Kunin, William E.; Boatman, Nigel D.; Conyers, Simon; Davies, Nancy; Gillespie, Mark A. K.; Morton, R. Daniel; Smart, Simon M.; Memmott, Jane

    2015-01-01

    Summary There is considerable concern over declines in insect pollinator communities and potential impacts on the pollination of crops and wildflowers1–4. Among the multiple pressures facing pollinators2–4, decreasing floral resources due to habitat loss and degradation has been suggested as a key contributing factor2–8. However, a lack of quantitative data has hampered testing for historical changes in floral resources. Here we show that overall floral rewards can be estimated at a national scale by combining vegetation surveys and direct nectar measurements. We find evidence for substantial losses in nectar resources in England and Wales between the 1930s and 1970s; however, total nectar provision in Great Britain as a whole had stabilised by 1978, and increased from 1998 to 2007. These findings concur with trends in pollinator diversity, which declined in the mid-20th century9 but stabilised more recently10. The diversity of nectar sources declined from 1978 to 1990 but stabilised thereafter at low levels, with four plant species accounting for over 50% of national nectar provision in 2007. Calcareous grassland, broadleaved woodland and neutral grassland are the habitats that produce the greatest amount of nectar per unit area from the most diverse sources, whereas arable land is the poorest in both respects. While agri-environment schemes add resources to arable landscapes, their national contribution is low. Due to their large area, improved grasslands could add substantially to national nectar provision if they were managed to increase floral resource provision. This national-scale assessment of floral resource provision brings new insights into the links between plant and pollinator declines, and offers considerable opportunities for conservation. PMID:26842058

  3. Historical nectar assessment reveals the fall and rise of floral resources in Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baude, Mathilde; Kunin, William E.; Boatman, Nigel D.; Conyers, Simon; Davies, Nancy; Gillespie, Mark A. K.; Morton, R. Daniel; Smart, Simon M.; Memmott, Jane

    2016-02-01

    There is considerable concern over declines in insect pollinator communities and potential impacts on the pollination of crops and wildflowers. Among the multiple pressures facing pollinators, decreasing floral resources due to habitat loss and degradation has been suggested as a key contributing factor. However, a lack of quantitative data has hampered testing for historical changes in floral resources. Here we show that overall floral rewards can be estimated at a national scale by combining vegetation surveys and direct nectar measurements. We find evidence for substantial losses in nectar resources in England and Wales between the 1930s and 1970s; however, total nectar provision in Great Britain as a whole had stabilized by 1978, and increased from 1998 to 2007. These findings concur with trends in pollinator diversity, which declined in the mid-twentieth century but stabilized more recently. The diversity of nectar sources declined from 1978 to 1990 and thereafter in some habitats, with four plant species accounting for over 50% of national nectar provision in 2007. Calcareous grassland, broadleaved woodland and neutral grassland are the habitats that produce the greatest amount of nectar per unit area from the most diverse sources, whereas arable land is the poorest with respect to amount of nectar per unit area and diversity of nectar sources. Although agri-environment schemes add resources to arable landscapes, their national contribution is low. Owing to their large area, improved grasslands could add substantially to national nectar provision if they were managed to increase floral resource provision. This national-scale assessment of floral resource provision affords new insights into the links between plant and pollinator declines, and offers considerable opportunities for conservation.

  4. Assessing the Cost of Global Biodiversity and Conservation Knowledge.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Juffe-Bignoli

    Full Text Available Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by standards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge products for biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decision makers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largely undocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintaining four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary data collected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US$160 million (range: US$116-204 million, plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278-308 person-years valued at US$ 14 million (range US$12-16 million, were invested in these four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financing was provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnel costs. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowledge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were not possible to estimate for 2013 is US$6.5 million in total (range: US$6.2-6.7 million. We estimated that an additional US$114 million will be needed to reach pre-defined baselines of data coverage for all the four knowledge products, and that once achieved, annual maintenance costs will be approximately US$12 million. These costs are much lower than those to maintain many other, similarly important, global knowledge products. Ensuring that biodiversity and conservation knowledge products are sufficiently up to date, comprehensive and accurate is fundamental to inform

  5. A historical review of the methods of determination of soil properties for soil quality and land degradation assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido, Manuel; Schnabel, Susanne; Francisco Lavado Contador, Joaquín; Gómez-Gutiérrez, Álvaro; Miralles, Isabel; Lozano-Parra, Javier; Antoneli, Valdemir; Brevik, Eric C.; Cerdà, Artemi

    2017-04-01

    Properly assessing soil quality and land degradation is one of the main concerns of soil scientists in recent decades. Nowadays there are several available assessment systems based mainly on indicators, i.e. on soil-related parameters, that allow one to determine the current state of natural soils at different scales. These systems vary depending on ecosystem type and soil function studied as well as the accuracy of the methods (techniques and tools) historically used in the determination of several soil parameters. In this study, we show a historical review of many methods of determining soil properties used regularly as soil quality and land degradation indicators. We have considered 5 worldwide historical periods: [1] The pioneers: before 1889, [2] USDA impulse: 1889 - 1945, [3] Productivity paradigm: 1946 - 1972, [4] Conservationist paradigm: 1973 - 2001, and [5] Current methodologies: 2002 - present. The limits of each period have been determined according to some key milestones, for humanity in general and soil science in particular, such as the creation of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in 1889, the end of World War II in 1945 or the publication of relevant works such as The limits to growth in 1972. The development of the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF) indexing tool by American soil scientists in 2001 marks a turning point from which new methodologies and paradigms began to be dominant among methods of determination. Finally, the methods historically used to determine more than 100 soil properties have been reviewed by consulting around 1,500 references published between 1305 and 2017. Approximately 10% of the references were key works to contextualize the first two historical periods, i.e. before 1945, and almost half of all references were published in the second half of the twentieth century (1946 - 2001). A logical tendency in gaining progressively accuracy in methods has been observed as well as a major boom in the

  6. Immmigrants and their associations: A global and historical perspective Los inmigrantes y sus asociaciones: Una perspectiva histórica y global

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José C. Moya

    2008-09-01

    sociability. The paper addresses the class and gender composition of memberships, compares the associative practices of the late 19th century’s immigrants with those of the early 21st century, and discusses the issue of state involvement. The essay shows, from a global and historical perspective, how quasi-universal processes and local and temporal specificities shaped associational practices in a way that transcended the ethno-national traditions and characteristics of particular immigrant groups and host countries.

  1. Global review of open access risk assessment software packages valid for global or continental scale analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Simpson, Alanna; Gunasekara, Rashmin; Baca, Abigail; Schaefer, Andreas; Ishizawa, Oscar; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Deparday, Vivien; Forni, Marc; Himmelfarb, Anne; Leder, Jan

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few decades, a plethora of open access software packages for the calculation of earthquake, volcanic, tsunami, storm surge, wind and flood have been produced globally. As part of the World Bank GFDRR Review released at the Understanding Risk 2014 Conference, over 80 such open access risk assessment software packages were examined. Commercial software was not considered in the evaluation. A preliminary analysis was used to determine whether the 80 models were currently supported and if they were open access. This process was used to select a subset of 31 models that include 8 earthquake models, 4 cyclone models, 11 flood models, and 8 storm surge/tsunami models for more detailed analysis. By using multi-criteria analysis (MCDA) and simple descriptions of the software uses, the review allows users to select a few relevant software packages for their own testing and development. The detailed analysis evaluated the models on the basis of over 100 criteria and provides a synopsis of available open access natural hazard risk modelling tools. In addition, volcano software packages have since been added making the compendium of risk software tools in excess of 100. There has been a huge increase in the quality and availability of open access/source software over the past few years. For example, private entities such as Deltares now have an open source policy regarding some flood models (NGHS). In addition, leaders in developing risk models in the public sector, such as Geoscience Australia (EQRM, TCRM, TsuDAT, AnuGA) or CAPRA (ERN-Flood, Hurricane, CRISIS2007 etc.), are launching and/or helping many other initiatives. As we achieve greater interoperability between modelling tools, we will also achieve a future wherein different open source and open access modelling tools will be increasingly connected and adapted towards unified multi-risk model platforms and highly customised solutions. It was seen that many software tools could be improved by enabling user

  2. Impact of historical mining assessed in soils by kinetic extraction and lead isotopic ratios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camizuli, E., E-mail: estelle.camizuli@u-bourgogne.fr [UMR 6298, ArTeHiS, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS — Culture, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Monna, F. [UMR 6298, ArTeHiS, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS — Culture, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Bermond, A.; Manouchehri, N.; Besançon, S. [Institut des sciences et industries du vivant et de l' environnement (AgroParisTech), Laboratoire de Chimie Analytique, 16, rue Claude Bernard, 75231 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Losno, R. [UMR 7583, LISA, Universités Paris 7-Paris 12 — CNRS, 61 av. du Gal de Gaulle, 94010 Créteil Cedex (France); Oort, F. van [UR 251, Pessac, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Centre de Versailles-Grignon, RD 10, 78026 Versailles Cedex (France); Labanowski, J. [UMR 7285, IC2MP, Université de Poitiers — CNRS, 4, rue Michel Brunet, 86022 Poitiers (France); Perreira, A. [UMR 6298, ArTeHiS, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS — Culture, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Chateau, C. [UFR SVTE, Université de Bourgogne, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France); Alibert, P. [UMR 6282, Biogeosciences, Université de Bourgogne — CNRS, 6 bd Gabriel, Bat. Gabriel, 21000 Dijon (France)

    2014-02-01

    The aim of this study is to estimate the long-term behaviour of trace metals, in two soils differently impacted by past mining. Topsoils from two 1 km{sup 2} zones in the forested Morvan massif (France) were sampled to assess the spatial distribution of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn. The first zone had been contaminated by historical mining. As expected, it exhibits higher trace-metal levels and greater spatial heterogeneity than the second non-contaminated zone, supposed to represent the local background. One soil profile from each zone was investigated in detail to estimate metal behaviour, and hence, bioavailability. Kinetic extractions were performed using EDTA on three samples: the A horizon from both soil profiles and the B horizon from the contaminated soil. For all three samples, kinetic extractions can be modelled by two first-order reactions. Similar kinetic behaviour was observed for all metals, but more metal was extracted from the contaminated A horizon than from the B horizon. More surprising is the general predominance of the residual fraction over the “labile” and “less labile” pools. Past anthropogenic inputs may have percolated over time through the soil profiles because of acidic pH conditions. Stable organo-metallic complexes may also have been formed over time, reducing metal availability. These processes are not mutually exclusive. After kinetic extraction, the lead isotopic compositions of the samples exhibited different signatures, related to contamination history and intrinsic soil parameters. However, no variation in lead signature was observed during the extraction experiment, demonstrating that the “labile” and “less labile” lead pools do not differ in terms of origin. Even if trace metals resulting from past mining and metallurgy persist in soils long after these activities have ceased, kinetic extractions suggest that metals, at least for these particular forest soils, do not represent a threat for biota. - Highlights: • Trace

  3. THE RECONCILIATION OF HERITAGE CONSERVATION AND DEVELOPMENT: The Success of Criteria in Guiding the Design and Assessment of Contemporary Interventions in Historic Places

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roha W. Khalaf

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Since built heritage continues to teach contemporary societies valuable lessons about traditional building practices among other substantial matters, its protection from environmentally insensitive development is important. The reconciliation of heritage conservation and development, therefore, is an appropriate research topic. This article aims at contributing to the global discourse on that topic, which is primarily supported by UNESCO and ICOMOS. It does so by evaluating the success of criteria in guiding the design and assessment of contemporary interventions in historic places. The purpose is to determine whether criteria, which usually come in the form of standards and/or design guidelines, hold the key to thoughtful change in historic places. To achieve this purpose, the present author first gives an overview of the current state of knowledge on the topic, then analyzes major scholarly literature to identify the strengths and weaknesses of criteria and finally suggests other avenues worth exploring. As a result of this qualitative research, readers would gain a better understanding of the background, questioning and principles that should frame new architecture in existing urban fabric.

  4. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  5. Popper's Theory of the Searchlight : A Historical Assessment of Its Significance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ter Hark, Michel; Parusnikova, Z; Cohen, R

    2009-01-01

    On the basis of a correspondence between Karl Popper and the Dutch psychologist Adriaan de Groot, it is argued that the former's epistemology of the searchlight is historically rooted in early cognitive psychology of Otto Selz. It is furthermore argued that Popper's later critique of information

  6. Psychology's Role in the Assessment of Erectile Dysfunction: Historical Precedents, Current Knowledge, and Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Mark D.; Carey, Michael P.

    1995-01-01

    Describes the role of the psychologist in the evaluation of erectile dysfunction. Reviews current diagnostic criteria and provides a historical overview of the topic. Summarizes current epidemiologic knowledge, including data on prevalence and research on cognitive, affective, dydactic, and lifestyle etiologic risk factors. Discusses assessment…

  7. WORKSHOP TO EVALUATE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON AIR QUALITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    A workshop will be conducted to evaluate approaches for characterizing, quantifying and communicating uncertainty when assessing global change effects on US air quality. The discussion focused on the US EPA ORD Global Research Program Air Quality assessment -- a complex, model-b...

  8. Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Li-Guang; Wang, Bin

    2003-01-01

    A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the

  9. Assessing the Global Extent of Rivers Observable by SWOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavelsky, T.; Durand, M. T.; Andreadis, K.; Beighley, E.; Allen, G. H.; Miller, Z.

    2013-12-01

    Flow of water through rivers is among the key fluxes in the global hydrologic cycle and its knowledge would advance the understanding of flood hazards, water resources management, ecology, and climate. However, gauges providing publicly accessible measurements of river stage or discharge remain sparse in many regions. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission is a joint project of NASA and the French Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) that would provide the first high-resolution images of simultaneous terrestrial water surface height, inundation extent, and ocean surface elevation. Among SWOT's primary goals is the direct observation of variations in river water surface elevation and, where possible, estimation of river discharge from SWOT measurements. The mission science requirements specify that rivers wider than 100 m would be observed globally, with a goal of observing rivers wider than 50m. However, the extent of anticipated SWOT river observations remains fundamentally unknown because no high-resolution, global dataset of river widths exists. Here, we estimate the global extent of rivers wider than 50 m-100 m thresholds using established relationships among river width, discharge, and drainage area. We combine a global digital elevation model with in situ river discharge data to estimate the global extent of SWOT-observable rivers, and validate these estimates against satellite-derived measurements of river width in two large river basins (the Yukon and the Ohio). We then compare the extent of SWOT-observed rivers with the current publicly-available, global gauge network included in the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) database to examine the impact of SWOT on the availability of river observation over continental and global scales. Results suggest that if SWOT observes 100 m wide rivers, river basins with areas greater than 50,000 km2 will commonly be measured. If SWOT could observe 50 m wide rivers, then most 10,000 km2 basins

  10. Subjective global assessment: a reliable nutritional assessment tool to predict outcomes in critically ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontes, Daniel; Generoso, Simone de Vasconcelos; Toulson Davisson Correia, Maria Isabel

    2014-04-01

    Nutritional assessment of critically ill patients has created controversy. However, it is well established that malnourished patients who are severely ill have worse outcomes than well-nourished patients. Therefore, assessing patients' nutritional status may be useful in predicting which patients may experience increased morbidity and mortality. One hundred eighty-five consecutively admitted patients were followed until discharge or death, and their nutritional status was evaluated using Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) as well as anthropometric and laboratory methods. Agreement between the methods was measured using the Kappa coefficient. Malnutrition was highly prevalent (54%), according to SGA. Malnourished patients had significantly higher rates of readmission to the intensive care unit (ICU) (OR 2.27; CI 1.08-4.80) and mortality (OR 8.12; CI 2.94-22.42). The comparison of SGA with other tests used to assess nutritional status showed that the correlation between the methods ranged from poor to superficial. SGA, an inexpensive and quick nutritional assessment method conducted at the bedside, is a reliable tool for predicting outcomes in critically ill patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  11. Tide-surge historical assessment of extreme water levels for the St. Johns River: 1928-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacopoulos, Peter

    2017-10-01

    An historical storm population is developed for the St. Johns River, located in northeast Florida-US east coast, via extreme value assessment of an 89-year-long record of hourly water-level data. Storm surge extrema and the corresponding (independent) storm systems are extracted from the historical record as well as the linear and nonlinear trends of mean sea level. Peaks-over-threshold analysis reveals the top 16 most-impactful (storm surge) systems in the general return-period range of 1-100 years. Hurricane Matthew (2016) broke the record with a new absolute maximum water level of 1.56 m, although the peak surge occurred during slack tide level (0.00 m). Hurricanes and tropical systems contribute to return periods of 10-100 years with water levels in the approximate range of 1.3-1.55 m. Extratropical systems and nor'easters contribute to the historical storm population (in the general return-period range of 1-10 years) and are capable of producing extreme storm surges (in the approximate range of 1.15-1.3 m) on par with those generated by hurricanes and tropical systems. The highest astronomical tide is 1.02 m, which by evaluation of the historical record can contribute as much as 94% to the total storm-tide water level. Statically, a hypothetical scenario of Hurricane Matthew's peak surge coinciding with the highest astronomical tide would yield an overall storm-tide water level of 2.58 m, corresponding to an approximate 1000-year return period by historical comparison. Sea-level trends (linear and nonlinear) impact water-level return periods and constitute additional risk hazard for coastal engineering designs.

  12. Global change researchers assess projections of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Eric J.

    In October 1994 climate researchers met at the Forum on Global Change Modeling to create a consensus document summarizing the debate on issues related to the use of climate models to influence policy. The charge to the Forum was to develop a brief statement on the credibility of projections of climate change provided by General Circulation Models. The Forum focused specifically on the climate aspects of the entire global change issue, not on emission scenarios, the consequences of change to ecosystems and natural resource systems, or the socio-economic implications and potential for responses.The Forum report put thoughts on this often divisive issue into perspective for use by the Government Accounting Office in developing and considering national policy options. The forum was organized in response to requests from the White House Office of Science and Technology by the Subcommitteeon Global Change Research, abranch of the new Committee on Earth and Natural Resources set up by the Clinton administration.

  13. From Ollamaliztli to Pelota mixteca and beyond : the role of globalization in the historical development of an indigenous Mexican ballgame

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berger, M.E.

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation studies the indigenous Mexican game of pelota mixteca. In the first part, the possible pre-Columbian origins of the game are examined. The second part focuses on the ways in which 20th- and 21st-century globalization, labor migration and state politics of indigenism have influenced

  14. Empowerment and Education. A historical study into the determinants of global educational participation of women, ca. 1850-2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vleuten, L. van der

    2016-01-01

    The research ‘Empowerment and Education’ focuses on global inequalities in the progress of education in relation to empowerment of women in the period 1850 to 2010. My thesis starts with a number of broader reasons for differences in education (including school attendance laws, child labor laws and

  15. Jobs in global supply chains: a macroeconomic assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Kizu, Takaaki; Kühn, Stefan; Viegelahn, Christian

    2016-01-01

    In its recent World Employment and Social Outlook, the ILO published estimates of the number of jobs related to global supply chains (GSCs) for 40 countries in 1995-2013. This paper provides a detailed description of the methodology that was used for the estimation and documents in more detail global linkages in production, becoming apparent on the labour market. The paper also shows new evidence on the number of jobs supported by different export destinations and analyzes the number of GSC-r...

  16. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 4 Appendix C - Historical Maximum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  17. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 6 Appendix E - Historical Minimum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  18. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 2 Appendix A - Historical Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  19. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 18 Appendix Q - Historical Maximum Near-Surface Wind Speed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconom ic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  20. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 20 Appendix S - Historical Sea Ice Area Fraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  1. Aviation Medicine: global historical perspectives and the development of Aviation Medicine alongside the growth of Singapore's aviation landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, W H; Low, R; Singh, J

    2011-05-01

    Aviation Medicine traces its roots to high altitude physiology more than 400 years ago. Since then, great strides have been made in this medical specialty, initially catalysed by the need to reduce pilot medical attrition during the World Wars, and more recently, fuelled by the explosive growth in globalised commercial air travel. This paper traces the historical milestones in Aviation Medicine, and maps its development in Singapore since the 1960s. Advancements in military aviation platforms and technology as well as the establishment of Singapore as an international aviation hub have propelled Aviation Medicine in Singapore to the forefront of many domains. These span Aviation Physiology training, selection medical standards, performance maximisation, as well as crew and passenger protection against communicable diseases arising from air travel. The year 2011 marks the centennial milestone of the first manned flight in Singapore, paving the way for further growth of Aviation Medicine as a mature specialty in Singapore.

  2. Historic Resources Assessment, Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway Wildlife Mitigation Project, Mobile and Tensaw River Deltas, Alabama

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-03-01

    I Osborne, A.J. 1977 Strandloopers, Mermaids, and Other Fairy Tales : Ecologi- cal Determinants of Marine Resource Utilization. In For Theory Building...96.1 87.1: 90.0: TOTAL 46 14 77 85 40 262 17.6 5.3 29.4 32.4 15.3 100.0 CHI SQUARE = 4.25 with DF= 4 p value = 0.374 *l=Historic; 2=Protohistoric; 3

  3. HISTORICAL REVIEW OF GNATHODYNAMOMETRIC METHODS USED FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF MASTICATORY FUNCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desislava Konstantinova

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Gnathodynamometric methods prove to be the oldest means available of obtaining an objective quantitative evaluation of masticatory efficiency. On the basis of data collected using these methods static methods were later introduced and in early 20th century functional dynamic methods were first applied. Referring to dental literature records, the authors' objective was to provide a review of available historical facts about the origin, development and application of gnathodynamometers in the study of masticatory function.

  4. Assessing the Future Directions of Global Knowledge Partnership ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Global Knowledge Partnership (GKP) is a multi-stakeholder partnership that seeks to advance the use of information and communication technology for development (ICT4D). IDRC has supported GKP from its inception over 10 years ago and currently serves as chair of its executive board. GKP is facing important ...

  5. Assessing the Global Potential and Regional Implications of Promoting Bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    There is no simple answer to the question “are materials from bio-based feedstocks environmentally, and socially, preferable?” Bioenergy as an alternative energy source might be effective in reducing fossil fuel use, slowing global warming effects, and providing increased revenue...

  6. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  7. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan-Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, M. Moklesur; Bai, Ling; Khan, Nangyal Ghani; Li, Guohui

    2017-09-01

    The Himalayan-Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan-Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records back to more than 1000 years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rate γ, the Gutenberg-Richter b value, and the maximum expected magnitude M max are estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50 years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan-Tibetan region.

  8. An assessment model of historical thinking skills by means of the RASCH model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ofianto Ofianto

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to produce a model and instruments of historical thinking skills in the history subject at the senior high school (SHS and to identify SHS students’ historical thinking skills. The study was conducted in two stages, namely model development and instrument development altogether with a small-scale tryout and a large-scale tryout. The test for each tryout consisted of six and five sub-test sets. Each test set contained 20 anchor items. The sample for each tryout comprised 1573 and 2613 testees. The data was analyzed by means of Partial Credit Model (PCM using the QUEST program. The overall tryout results indicate that, based on the criteria for an INFIT MNSQ mean of 0.1 and a standard deviation of 1.0, the tests fit the PCM. The reliability coefficients of the tests for the tryouts are moderately good; the Cronbach’s alpha coefficients are, respectively, 0.65 and 0.54. The lowest score of historical thinking skills is -.352 and the highest is +1.21 in an ideal range of -4.0 to +4.0. In overall, the testees’ scores are not satisfactory. Only 5.89% of the testees are above the expected median.

  9. Archaeology, historical site risk assessment and monitoring by UAV: approaches and case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecci, Antonio; Masini, Nicola

    2016-04-01

    Non-invasive methods for archaeological research, like geophysical prospecting, aerial and satellite remote sensing, integrated with field survey activity, can make a large quantity of data essential for both operational uses and scientific purposes: from the detection of buried remains to risk assessment and monitoring (Lasaponara & Masini 2012; 2013; Lasaponara et al. 2016). Among the latest non-invasive methods there are the unmanned air vehicle (UAV) platforms, a real innovation, which proved to be capable for a variety of fields of applications, from the topographic survey to the monitoring of infrastructures. In the field of cultural heritage, for purposes ranging from the documentation to the detection of archaeological features, the use of UAVs is extremely functional, efficient and low-cost. Moreover, UAV flight requires much less time than that required by an Aircraft. A traditional aircraft must take off from an airport, sometimes far from the work area, while a drone, particularly rotary wing, can be transported in the area of interest and take off directly from there in a few minutes. The reason of the success of UAV are also the innovative vision, the very high-resolution of the obtainable products (orthophoto, digital elevations models) and the availability of easy tools of image processing based on Structure from Motion (SfM). (Neitzel & Klonowski 2011; Nex & Remondino 2013). SfM is a range imaging technique which allows to estimate three-dimensional objects from two-dimensional image sequences which may be coupled with local motion signals. Respect to conventional photogrammetry which requires a single stereo-pair, SfM needs multiple, overlapping photographs as input to feature extraction and 3-D reconstruction algorithms. In SfM the geometry of the scene, camera positions and orientation are solved simultaneously using a highly redundant, iterative bundle adjustment procedure, based on a database of features automatically extracted from a set of

  10. Assessing Food Safety Risk in Global Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Shirani, Mohsen

    2016-01-01

    Despite many attempts in the food safety risk assessment, there are a few studies and methods to cover the entire food supply chain. This study introduce a new model to perform the food risk assessment considering human factor along the entire food supply chain. The multi-discipline methodology of risk assessment tool, in combination of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) has been applied in order to assess high safety risk point along the entire supply chain of food products. The method has be...

  11. Subjective Global Nutritional Assessment: A Reliable Screening Tool for Nutritional Assessment in Cerebral Palsy Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minocha, Priyanka; Sitaraman, Sadasivan; Choudhary, Anita; Yadav, Rajiv

    2018-01-01

    To determine the prevalence of undernutrition in children with cerebral palsy and to compare subjective and objective methods of nutritional assessment. This was a hospital based analytical observational study in which 180 children of cerebral palsy, aged 1-12 y, attending tertiary level hospital, Jaipur from March, 2012 through March, 2013 were included. Subjective assessment was done by questionnaire (Subjective Global Nutritional Assessment; SGNA) in which questions related to nutrition history and physical examination, signs of fat, muscle wasting and edema was done while objective assessment was done by weight, height and triceps skinfold thickness (TSFT) measurements. In this study prevalence of undernutrition by subjective method (SGNA) was 76.67% while by objective measurement (weight, height, TSFT) was 48.89%, 77.78% 35.18% respectively. There was fair to moderate agreement between the SGNA and objective assessments including weight and height (k = 0.341, p = 0.000; k = 0.337, p = 0.000 respectively) while for TSFT agreement between both methods was poor (k = 0.092, p = 0.190). In the index study, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of SGNA was for weight was 95%, 37%, 56%, 90%; for height 84%, 50%, 85%, 47%; for TSFT 81%, 30%, 38%, 75% respectively. The prevalence of undernutrition is high in cerebral palsy children. SGNA can be a reliable tool for assessing nutritional status in children with cerebral palsy and is a simple, comprehensive, noninvasive, and cost-effective tool for screening undernutrition in children of cerebral palsy.

  12. Phase I Archaeological Survey of Parcel ED-3 and Historic Assessement of the Happy Valley Worker Camp Roane County, Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    New South Associates

    2009-08-17

    Parcel ED-3 was the location of a portion of 'Happy Valley', a temporary worker housing area occupied from 1943 to 1947 during the construction of the K-25 Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant. The project was carried out under subcontract for the Department of Energy. The survey report will be used in the preparation of an Environmental Assessment under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). New South Associates conducted a Phase I Archaeological Survey of Parcel ED-3 at the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation in Roane County, Tennessee. The survey was conducted in two parts. The first survey was carried out in 2008 and covered an area measuring approximately 110 acres. The second survey took place in 2009 and focused on 72 acres west of the first survey area. The objective of the surveys was to identify any archaeological remains associated with Happy Valley and any additional sites on the property and to assess these sites for National Register eligibility. New South Associates also conducted a historic assessment to gather information on Happy Valley. This historic assessment was used in conjunction with the archaeological survey to evaluate the significance of the Happy Valley site. Archaeological remains of Happy Valley were located throughout the parcel, but no additional sites were located. The official state site number for Happy Valley is 40RE577. During the two surveys a total of 13 artifact concentrations, 14 isolated finds, and 75 structural features were located. Due to the Happy Valley's stron gassociation with the Manhattan Project, the site is recommended eligible for the National Register of Historic Places under Criterion A.

  13. THE DEGREE OF STATE'S GLOBALIZATION ASSESSMENT IN ASPECTS OF CONVERGENCE AND INTEGRATION IN THE WORLD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Kharlamova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Analyses of approaches and methods to assess processes of integration and convergence adjusted the direction of the goal of the study – to assess the degree of globalization for a state by means of alternative (authors’ approach, taking into account current characteristics and trends of this process. Based on the known techniques to assess the degree of globalization as “European Integration Index for Eastern Partnership Coun-tries” and “KOF Index of Globalization”, we have expanded the existing methodology and developed an alternative index of the degree of globaliza-tion of the country, based on the model of perfect globalized and fully not globalized countries. Alternative globalization index and KOF Index of Globalization were compared to analyze the practical efficiency of each. Comparative characteristics of the alternative globalization index of the country and KOF Index of Globalization confirmed the practical efficiency and simplicity in estimation for authors’ index that is based on evidence and giving adequate evaluation. The development of new methods in this area is in demand as never before. We have taken the first steps toward an alternative approach analysis of the phenomenon of globalization.

  14. Assessing Summit Engagement with Other International Organizations in Global Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Larionova

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent decades have witnessed dramatic changes all over the world. One major trend is the proliferation and diversification of actors, forums and their arrangements to address global governance challenges, which has led to fragmentation in global governance. However, such contested multilateralism has a positive dimension, as the emergence of informal multilateral institutions claiming a major role in defining the global governance agenda creates alternatives for providing common goods. New arrangements acquire their own actorness and place in the system of global governance. In certain policy areas, there is a clear trend for the new summit institutions’ leadership. The most visible recent cases include the Group of 20 (G20, the BRICS group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC forum, with APEC gaining importance regionally and globally. These new informal groupings work on their own agenda. They also engage with established international organizations to steer global governance processes. Taken together, the transformative trends in international relations, the emergence of new actors, tensions between exclusive and inclusive clubs, and demands for the legitimacy and effectiveness of the international institutions define the relevance of the study, systematization and comparative analysis of the effectiveness of this model of cooperation among international institutions. This article builds an analytical framework by undertaking three tasks. It first reviews the key concepts. Second, it argues for a rational choice institutionalist approach. Third, it puts forward a hypothesis for research: to compensate for their inefficiencies, summit institutions engage with other international organizations in a mode they regard most efficient for attainment of their goals. The modes of those institutions’ engagement with other international organizations as reflected in the leaders

  15. A Global Rapid Integrated Monitoring System for Water Cycle and Water Resource Assessment (Global-RIMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roads, John; Voeroesmarty, Charles

    2005-01-01

    The main focus of our work was to solidify underlying data sets, the data processing tools and the modeling environment needed to perform a series of long-term global and regional hydrological simulations leading eventually to routine hydrometeorological predictions. A water and energy budget synthesis was developed for the Mississippi River Basin (Roads et al. 2003), in order to understand better what kinds of errors exist in current hydrometeorological data sets. This study is now being extended globally with a larger number of observations and model based data sets under the new NASA NEWS program. A global comparison of a number of precipitation data sets was subsequently carried out (Fekete et al. 2004) in which it was further shown that reanalysis precipitation has substantial problems, which subsequently led us to the development of a precipitation assimilation effort (Nunes and Roads 2005). We believe that with current levels of model skill in predicting precipitation that precipitation assimilation is necessary to get the appropriate land surface forcing.

  16. Nutritional Assessment Score: A new tool derived from Subjective Global Assessment for hospitalized adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva Fink, Jaqueline; de Mello, Elza Daniel; Beghetto, Mariur Gomes; Luft, Vivian Cristine; de Jezus Castro, Stela Maris; de Mello, Paula Daniel

    2017-02-24

    There is no method to be used as a reference standard for nutritional assessment. This study aims to develop and verify the performance of a new tool, based on the Item Response Theory (IRT), from the Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) questionnaire, in hospitalized adult patients. Retrospective cohort study, composed by secondary database, formed by patients included from October 2005 to June 2006. The new tool presented was developed through the usage of cumulative models from the IRT. Out of 1503 evaluated patients, 2/3 were randomly selected to the development sample of the new tool and 1/3 to the performance verification sample. After item adjustments, the "Nutritional Assessment Score" (NAS) was proposed, with reduced number of questions, and, in comparison to SGA, less polytomic items. NAS demonstrates association to variables that are clinically relevant (hospital mortality, long hospital stay, serum albumin and body mass index) and has shown itself to be more precise to patients with the worst degrees of nutritional status. Results point to the validation of the NAS in detecting, accurately, the nutritional status of hospitalized patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  17. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Historical Church: Limit Analysis and Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Castellazzi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The seismic vulnerability of a historical Basilica church located in Italy is studied by means of limit analysis and nonlinear finite element (FE analysis. Attention is posed to the failure mechanisms involving the façade of the church and its interaction with the lateral walls. In particular, the limit analysis and the nonlinear FE analysis provide an estimate of the load collapse multiplier of the failure mechanisms. Results obtained from both approaches are in agreement and can support the selection of possible retrofitting measures to decrease the vulnerability of the church under seismic loads.

  18. Assessing enigmatic boulder deposits in NE Aegean Sea: importance of historical sources as tool to support hydrodynamic equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Vacchi

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to their importance in the assessment of coastal hazards, several studies have focused on geomorphological and sedimentological field evidence of catastrophic wave impacts related to historical tsunami events. Among them, many authors used boulder fields as important indicators of past tsunamis, especially in the Mediterranean Sea. The aim of this study was to understand the mechanism of deposition of clusters of large boulders, consisting of beachrock slabs, which were found on the southern coasts of Lesvos Island (NE Aegean Sea. Methods to infer the origin of boulder deposits (tsunami vs. storm wave are often based on hydrodynamic models even if different environmental complexities are difficult to be incorporated into numerical models. In this study, hydrodynamic equations did not provide unequivocal indication of the mechanism responsible for boulder deposition in the study area. Further analyses, ranging from geomorphologic to seismotectonic data, indicated a tsunami as the most likely cause of displacement of the boulders but still do not allow to totally exclude the extreme storm origin. Additional historical investigations (based on tsunami catalogues, historical photos and aged inhabitants interviews indicated that the boulders are likely to have been deposited by the tsunami triggered by the 6.7 Ms Chios-Karaburum earthquake of 1949 or, alternatively, by minor effects of the destructive tsunami produced by 1956's Amorgos Island earthquake. Results of this study point out that, at Mediterranean scale, to flank numerical models with the huge amount of the available historical data become a crucial tool in terms of prevention policies related to catastrophic coastal events.

  19. A Global Perspective on Psycho-Educational Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, Linda; Islam, Shaheen; Su, Hui; Younesian, Sharifeh

    2015-01-01

    For psychologists in less developed countries, psycho-educational assessment is often challenging due to a lack of specialist training and a scarcity of appropriate, psychometrically robust instruments. This article focuses on school psychology and psycho-educational assessment in three countries: Bangladesh, China and Iran. Despite differences in…

  20. Assessing Students' Communication Skills: Validation of a Global Rating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheffer, Simone; Muehlinghaus, Isabel; Froehmel, Annette; Ortwein, Heiderose

    2008-01-01

    Communication skills training is an accepted part of undergraduate medical programs nowadays. In addition to learning experiences its importance should be emphasised by performance-based assessment. As detailed checklists have been shown to be not well suited for the assessment of communication skills for different reasons, this study aimed to…

  1. A Global Flood Model in the Context of the Global Assessment Report 2015: methodology presentation and discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudari, Roberto; Campo, Lorenzo; Silvestro, Francesco; Herold, Christian

    2015-04-01

    The Global Assessment Report (GAR) is a major initiative of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). It contributes to the achievement of the Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA) through monitoring risk patterns and trends and progress in disaster risk reduction and by providing guidance, to governments and non-governmental actors alike, on why and how they can, together, reduce disaster risks. Among its goals is an enhanced Global Risk Model, addressing gaps in current knowledge on risk patterns and trends and providing accurate and credible information for the global disaster risk reduction community. Within this goal the present work aimed at improving the Global Flood Model. The contribution will focus on the Hazard maps definition starting form a combination of stream-flow gauges frequency analysis and Hydrologic-hydraulic modelling. The Hazard maps produced by the Global Flood Model are not considering flood defences and are therefore not suitable as such for risk parameters computations; a post-processing procedure to consider flood defences is proposed and applied. The Hazard maps are then used to produce a full set of Possible Flood scenarios in order to compute PML curves. Results are discussed with reference to some example countries highlighting advantages and limitations of the approach undertaken.

  2. Historical and contemporary imagery to assess ecosystem change on the Arctic coastal plain of northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tape, Ken D.; Pearce, John M.; Walworth, Dennis; Meixell, Brandt W.; Fondell, Tom F.; Gustine, David D.; Flint, Paul L.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Ward, David H.

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low-relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at unprecedented rates. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) research initiative was developed to investigate and forecast these rapid changes in the physical environment of the Arctic, and the associated changes to wildlife populations, in order to inform key management decisions by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Forecasting future wildlife responses to changes in the Arctic can benefit greatly from historical records that inform what changes have already occurred. Several Arctic wildlife and plant species have already responded to climatic and physical changes to the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Thus, we located historical aerial imagery to improve our understanding of recent habitat changes and the associated response to such changes by wildlife populations.

  3. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...

  4. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer K. Costanza; John W. Coulston; David N. Wear

    2017-01-01

    The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and...

  5. High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gernaat, David E.H.J.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Vuuren, van Detlef P.; Biemans, Hester; Niessink, Robin

    2017-01-01

    Hydropower is the most important renewable energy source to date, providing over 72% of all renewable electricity globally. Yet, only limited information is available on the global potential supply of hydropower and the associated costs. Here we provide a high-resolution assessment of the technical

  6. An AeroCom initial assessment – optical properties in aerosol component modules of global models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kinne, S.; Schulz, M.; Textor, C.; Guibert, S.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, E.; Berglen, T.F.; Boucher, O.; Chin, M.; Collins, W.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R.; Feichter, J.; Fillmore, D.; Ghan, S.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Grini, A.; Hendricks, J.; Herzog, M.; Horowitz, L.; Isaksen, I.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevåg, A.; Kloster, S.; Koch, D.; Kristjansson, J.E.; Krol, M.C.; Lauer, A.; Lamarque, J.F.; Lesins, G.; Liu, X.; Lohmann, U.; Montanaro, V.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Seland, O.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Tie, X.

    2006-01-01

    The AeroCom exercise diagnoses multi-component aerosol modules in global modeling. In an initial assessment simulated global distributions for mass and mid-visible aerosol optical thickness (aot) were compared among 20 different modules. Model diversity was also explored in the context of previous

  7. The Global Burden of Disease assessments--WHO is responsible?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Stein

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The Global Burden of Disease (GBD concept has been used by the World Health Organization (WHO for its reporting on health information for nearly 10 years. The GBD approach results in a single summary measure of morbidity, disability, and mortality, the so-called disability-adjusted life year (DALY. To ensure transparency and objectivity in the derivation of health information, WHO has been urged to use reference groups of external experts to estimate burden of disease. Under the leadership and coordination of WHO, expert groups have been appraising and abstracting burden of disease information. Examples include the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG, the Malaria Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group (MERG, and the recently established Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG. The structure and functioning of and lessons learnt by these groups are described in this paper. External WHO expert groups have provided independent scientific health information while operating under considerable differences in structure and functioning. Although it is not appropriate to devise a single "best practice" model, the common thread described by all groups is the necessity of WHO's leadership and coordination to ensure the provision and dissemination of health information that is to be globally accepted and valued.

  8. Global Assessment of Volcanic Debris Hazards from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watters, Robert J.

    2003-01-01

    Hazard (slope stability) assessment for different sectors of volcano edifices was successfully obtained from volcanoes in North and South America. The assessment entailed Hyperion images to locate portions of the volcano that were hydrothermally altered to clay rich rocks with zones that were also rich in alunite and other minerals. The identified altered rock zones were field checked and sampled. The rock strength of these zones was calculated from the field and laboratory measurements. Volcano modeling utilizing the distinct element method and limit equilibrium technique, with the calculated strength data was used to assess stability and deformation of the edifice. Modeling results give indications of possible failure volumes, velocities and direction. The models show the crucial role hydrothermally weak rock plays in reducing the strength o the volcano edifice and the rapid identification of weak rock through remote sensing techniques. Volcanoes were assessed in the Cascade Range (USA), Mexico, and Chile (ongoing).

  9. mHealth Assessment: Conceptualization of a Global Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Bradway, Meghan; Carrión Ribas, Carme; Vallespin, Bárbara; Saadatfard, Omid; Puigdomènech, Elisa; Espallargues, Mireia; Kotzeva, Anna

    2017-01-01

    Background The mass availability and use of mobile health (mHealth) technologies offers the potential for these technologies to support or substitute medical advice. However, it is worrisome that most assessment initiatives are still not able to successfully evaluate all aspects of mHealth solutions. As a result, multiple strategies to assess mHealth solutions are being proposed by medical regulatory bodies and similar organizations. Objective We aim to offer a collective description of a uni...

  10. “Which Child Left Behind”: Historical Issues Regarding Equity in Science Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    J. Joy Cumming; Peter J. Fensham

    2013-01-01

    Assessment of learning plays a dominant role in formal education in the forms of determining features of curriculum that are emphasized, pedagogic methods that teachers use with their students, and parents’ and employers’ understanding of how well students have performed. A common perception is that fair assessment applies the same mode of assessment and content focus for all students—the approach of assessments in international comparative studies of science achievement. This article examine...

  11. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given for...

  12. Global guidance on environmental life cycle impact assessment indicators: Progress and case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frischknecht, Rolf; Fantke, Peter; Tschümperlin, Laura

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) guidance flagship project of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Life Cycle Initiative aims at providing global guidance and building scientific consensus on environmental LCIA...

  13. Assessing the political feasibility of global options to reduce biodiversity loss

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellas, E.; Pattberg, P.H.

    2013-01-01

    This article systematically assesses the likelihood of effective implementation of several key options to reduce global biodiversity loss, including conventional biodiversity policies, such as expanding protected areas, and policies primarily developed for other purposes but with potential positive

  14. Assessment of Global Variability in UTBB MOSFETs in Subthreshold Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergej Makovejev

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The global variability of ultra-thin body and buried oxide (UTBB MOSFETs in subthreshold and off regimes of operation is analyzed. The variability of the off-state drain current, subthreshold slope, drain-induced barrier lowering (DIBL, gate leakage current, threshold voltage and their correlations are considered. Two threshold voltage extraction techniques were used. It is shown that the transconductance over drain current (gm/Id method is preferable for variability studies. It is demonstrated that the subthreshold drain current variability in short channel devices cannot be described by threshold voltage variability. It is suggested to include the effective body factor incorporating short channel effects in order to properly model the subthreshold drain current variability.

  15. “Which Child Left Behind”: Historical Issues Regarding Equity in Science Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Joy Cumming

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of learning plays a dominant role in formal education in the forms of determining features of curriculum that are emphasized, pedagogic methods that teachers use with their students, and parents’ and employers’ understanding of how well students have performed. A common perception is that fair assessment applies the same mode of assessment and content focus for all students—the approach of assessments in international comparative studies of science achievement. This article examines research evidence demonstrating that the act of assessment is not neutral—different forms of assessment advantage or disadvantage groups of students on the basis of family backgrounds, gender, race, or disability. Assessment that implicitly or explicitly captures the social capital of the child serves to consolidate, not address, educational equity. The article provides an overview of ways that science curriculum focus and assessment can introduce bias in the identification of student achievement. It examines the effect of changes to curriculum and assessment approaches in science, and relationships between assessment of science and the cultural context of the student. Recommendations are provided for science–assessment research to address bias for different groups of students.

  16. Assessing the Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Andrew E.; Oliver, John T.; Mirzaie, Masoud; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Chilov, Marina; Anderson, Laurie; Morrison, Janina L.; Khan, Aayla; Zhang, Nasen; Haynes, Norrisa; Tran, Jackie; Murphy, Adrianna; DeGennaro, Vincent; Roth, Gregory; Zhao, Dong; Peer, Nasheeta; Pichon-Riviere, Andres; Rubinstein, Adolfo; Pogosova, Nana; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Naghavi, Mohsen; Ezzati, Majid; Mensah, George A.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. The GBD (Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study (GBD 2010 Study) conducted a systematic review of IHD epidemiology literature from 1980 to 2008 to inform estimates of the burden on IHD in 21 world regions in 1990 and 2010. METHODS The disease model of IHD for the GBD 2010 Study included IHD death and 3 sequelae: myocardial infarction, heart failure, and angina pectoris. Medline, EMBASE, and LILACS were searched for IHD epidemiology studies in GBD high-income and low- and middle-income regions published between 1980 and 2008 using a systematic protocol validated by regional IHD experts. Data from included studies were supplemented with unpublished data from selected high-quality surveillance and survey studies. The epidemiologic parameters of interest were incidence, prevalence, case fatality, and mortality. RESULTS Literature searches yielded 40,205 unique papers, of which 1,801 met initial screening criteria. Upon detailed review of full text papers, 137 published studies were included. Unpublished data were obtained from 24 additional studies. Data were sufficient for high-income regions, but missing or sparse in many low- and middle-income regions, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSIONS A systematic review for the GBD 2010 Study provided IHD epidemiology estimates for most world regions, but highlighted the lack of information about IHD in Sub-Saharan Africa and other low-income regions. More complete knowledge of the global burden of IHD will require improved IHD surveillance programs in all world regions. PMID:23682350

  17. Geothermal energy in deep aquifers : A global assessment of the resource base for direct heat utilization

    OpenAIRE

    Limberger, J.; Boxem, T.; Pluymaekers, Maarten; Bruhn, David; Manzella, Adelle; Calcagno, Philippe; Beekman, F.; Cloetingh, S.; van Wees, J.-D.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we present results of a global resource assessment for geothermal energy within deep aquifers for direct heat utilization. Greenhouse heating, spatial heating, and spatial cooling are considered in this assessment. We derive subsurface temperatures from geophysical data and apply a volumetric heat-in-place method to improve current global geothermal resource base estimates for direct heat applications. The amount of thermal energy stored within aquifers depends on the Earth's he...

  18. Geothermal energy in deep aquifers: A global assessment of the resource base for direct heat utilization

    OpenAIRE

    Limberger, Jon; Boxem, Thijs; Pluymaekers, Maarten; Bruhn, D.F.; Manzella, Adele; Calcagno, Philippe; Beekman, Fred; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.; van Wees, Jan Diederik

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we present results of a global resource assessment for geothermal energy within deep aquifers for direct heat utilization. Greenhouse heating, spatial heating, and spatial cooling are considered in this assessment. We derive subsurface temperatures from geophysical data and apply a volumetric heat-in-place method to improve current global geothermal resource base estimates for direct heat applications. The amount of thermal energy stored within aquifers depends on the Earth's he...

  19. Ice-core based assessment of historical anthropogenic heavy metal (Cd, Cu, Sb, Zn) emissions in the Soviet Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichler, Anja; Tobler, Leonhard; Eyrikh, Stella; Malygina, Natalia; Papina, Tatyana; Schwikowski, Margit

    2014-01-01

    The development of strategies and policies aiming at the reduction of environmental exposure to air pollution requires the assessment of historical emissions. Although anthropogenic emissions from the extended territory of the Soviet Union (SU) considerably influenced concentrations of heavy metals in the Northern Hemisphere, Pb is the only metal with long-term historical emission estimates for this region available, whereas for selected other metals only single values exist. Here we present the first study assessing long-term Cd, Cu, Sb, and Zn emissions in the SU during the period 1935-1991 based on ice-core concentration records from Belukha glacier in the Siberian Altai and emission data from 12 regions in the SU for the year 1980. We show that Zn primarily emitted from the Zn production in Ust-Kamenogorsk (East Kazakhstan) dominated the SU heavy metal emission. Cd, Sb, Zn (Cu) emissions increased between 1935 and the 1970s (1980s) due to expanded non-ferrous metal production. Emissions of the four metals in the beginning of the 1990s were as low as in the 1950s, which we attribute to the economic downturn in industry, changes in technology for an increasing metal recovery from ores, the replacement of coal and oil by gas, and air pollution control.

  20. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  1. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Global Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Arnold, J.; Srinivasan, R; Neitsch, S. (ed.); George, C.; Abbaspour, K.; Hao, F.H.; van Griensven, A.; Gosain, A.; Debels, P.; N.W. Kim; Somura, H.; Ella, Victor B.; Leon, L.; Jintrawet, A.; Manuel R. Reyes

    2009-01-01

    Summary: SWAT,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool is a river basin, or watershed, scale model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. [from the editors' preamble] LTRA-5 (Agroforestry and Sustainable Vegetable Production)

  2. mHealth Assessment: Conceptualization of a Global Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradway, Meghan; Carrion, Carme; Vallespin, Bárbara; Saadatfard, Omid; Puigdomènech, Elisa; Espallargues, Mireia; Kotzeva, Anna

    2017-05-02

    The mass availability and use of mobile health (mHealth) technologies offers the potential for these technologies to support or substitute medical advice. However, it is worrisome that most assessment initiatives are still not able to successfully evaluate all aspects of mHealth solutions. As a result, multiple strategies to assess mHealth solutions are being proposed by medical regulatory bodies and similar organizations. We aim to offer a collective description of a universally applicable description of mHealth assessment initiatives, given their current and, as we see it, potential impact. In doing so, we recommend a common foundation for the development or update of assessment initiatives by addressing the multistakeholder issues that mHealth technology adds to the traditional medical environment. Organized by the Mobile World Capital Barcelona Foundation, we represent a workgroup consisting of patient associations, developers, and health authority representatives, including medical practitioners, within Europe. Contributions from each group's diverse competencies has allowed us to create an overview of the complex yet similar approaches to mHealth evaluation that are being developed today, including common gaps in concepts and perspectives. In response, we summarize commonalities of existing initiatives and exemplify additional characteristics that we believe will strengthen and unify these efforts. As opposed to a universal standard or protocol in evaluating mHealth solutions, assessment frameworks should respect the needs and capacity of each medical system or country. Therefore, we expect that the medical system will specify the content, resources, and workflow of assessment protocols in order to ensure a sustainable plan for mHealth solutions within their respective countries. A common framework for all mHealth initiatives around the world will be useful in order to assess whatever mHealth solution is desirable in different areas, adapting it to the

  3. QUANTITATIVE MEASUREMENT AND ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION OF COMPANIES AND MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Kovtun

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The results of improving the author’s methodology linked with the assessment of companies’ and markets’ globalization level were presented in this paper. Based on the analysis of the global companies’ and global markets’ features referred to in scientific literature, the specifications which can be used to determine the globalization level of companies and markets were suggested. In addition, the globalization level of the largest top-ten companies (according to the rating of Forbes Global 2000 Leading Companies in 2015 was identified as well as that of corresponding industry markets: auto and truck manufacturers, major banks, software and programming, large department stores (retailers, telecommunication services, electronics producers, electronics, oil and gas operations.

  4. Accuracy assessment of seven global land cover datasets over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yongke; Xiao, Pengfeng; Feng, Xuezhi; Li, Haixing

    2017-03-01

    Land cover (LC) is the vital foundation to Earth science. Up to now, several global LC datasets have arisen with efforts of many scientific communities. To provide guidelines for data usage over China, nine LC maps from seven global LC datasets (IGBP DISCover, UMD, GLC, MCD12Q1, GLCNMO, CCI-LC, and GlobeLand30) were evaluated in this study. First, we compared their similarities and discrepancies in both area and spatial patterns, and analysed their inherent relations to data sources and classification schemes and methods. Next, five sets of validation sample units (VSUs) were collected to calculate their accuracy quantitatively. Further, we built a spatial analysis model and depicted their spatial variation in accuracy based on the five sets of VSUs. The results show that, there are evident discrepancies among these LC maps in both area and spatial patterns. For LC maps produced by different institutes, GLC 2000 and CCI-LC 2000 have the highest overall spatial agreement (53.8%). For LC maps produced by same institutes, overall spatial agreement of CCI-LC 2000 and 2010, and MCD12Q1 2001 and 2010 reach up to 99.8% and 73.2%, respectively; while more efforts are still needed if we hope to use these LC maps as time series data for model inputting, since both CCI-LC and MCD12Q1 fail to represent the rapid changing trend of several key LC classes in the early 21st century, in particular urban and built-up, snow and ice, water bodies, and permanent wetlands. With the highest spatial resolution, the overall accuracy of GlobeLand30 2010 is 82.39%. For the other six LC datasets with coarse resolution, CCI-LC 2010/2000 has the highest overall accuracy, and following are MCD12Q1 2010/2001, GLC 2000, GLCNMO 2008, IGBP DISCover, and UMD in turn. Beside that all maps exhibit high accuracy in homogeneous regions; local accuracies in other regions are quite different, particularly in Farming-Pastoral Zone of North China, mountains in Northeast China, and Southeast Hills. Special

  5. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  6. Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.

  7. Forming, transfer and globalization of medical-pharmaceutical knowledge in South East Asian missions (17th to 18th c.) - historical dimensions and modern perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostou, Sabine

    2015-06-05

    From the 17th to the 18th centuries, missionaries in Southeast Asia dedicated themselves to providing and establishing a professional medical-pharmaceutical supply for the local population and therefore explored the genuine Materia medica for easily available and affordable remedies, especially medicinal plants. In characteristic medical-pharmaceutical compendia, which can be classified as missionary pharmacopoeias, they laid down their knowledge to advise others and to guarantee a professional health care. As their knowledge often resulted from an exchange with indigenous communities, these compendia provide essential information about traditional plant uses of Southeast Asian people. Individual missionaries such as the Jesuit Georg Joseph Kamel (1661-1706) not only strove to explore medicinal plants but performed botanical studies and even composed comprehensive herbals. The Jesuit missionaries in particular played roles in both the order's own global network of transfer of medicinal drugs and knowledge about the application, and within the contemporary local and European scientific networks which included, for example, the famous Royal Society of London. The results of their studies were distributed all over the world, were introduced into the practical Materia medica of other regions, and contributed significantly to the academization of knowledge. In our article we will explain the different intentions and methods of exploring, the resulting works and the consequences for the forming of the pharmaceutical and scientific knowledge. Finally, we will show the options which the works of the missionaries can offer for the saving of traditional ethnopharmacological knowledge and for the development of modern phytotherapeutics and pharmaceutical supply. The publication is based on a comprehensive study on the phenomenon of missionary pharmacy which has been published as a book in 2011 (Anagnostou, 2011a) and shows now the potential of historical medical

  8. New Measures Assessing Predictors of Academic Persistence for Historically Underrepresented Racial/Ethnic Undergraduates in Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byars-Winston, Angela; Rogers, Jenna; Branchaw, Janet; Pribbenow, Christine; Hanke, Ryan; Pfund, Christine

    2016-01-01

    An important step in broadening participation of historically underrepresented (HU) racial/ethnic groups in the sciences is the creation of measures validated with these groups that will allow for greater confidence in the results of investigations into factors that predict their persistence. This study introduces new measures of theoretically derived factors emanating from social cognitive and social identity theories associated with persistence for HU racial/ethnic groups in science disciplines. The purpose of this study was to investigate: 1) the internal reliability and factor analyses for measures of research-related self-efficacy beliefs, sources of self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and science identity; and 2) potential group differences in responses to the measures, examining the main and interaction effects of gender and race/ethnicity. Survey data came from a national sample of 688 undergraduate students in science majors who were primarily black/African American and Hispanic/Latino/a with a 2:1 ratio of females to males. Analyses yielded acceptable validity statistics and race × gender group differences were observed in mean responses to several measures. Implications for broadening participation of HU groups in the sciences are discussed regarding future tests of predictive models of student persistence and training programs to consider cultural diversity factors in their design. PMID:27521235

  9. DIGITAL HISTORIC URBAN LANDSCAPE METHODOLOGY FOR HERITAGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF SINGAPORE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Widodo

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Using the case study of Singapore’s existing heritage websites, this research will probe the circumstances of the emerging technology and practice of consuming heritage architecture on a digital platform. Despite the diverse objectives, technology is assumed to help deliver greater interpretation through the use of new and high technology emphasising experience and provide visual fidelity. However, the success is limited as technology is insufficient to provide the past from multiple perspectives. Currently, existing projects provide linear narratives developed through a top-down approach that assumes the end-users as an individual entity and limits heritage as a consumable product. Through this research, we hope to uncover for better experience of digital heritage architecture where interpretation is an evolving ‘process’ that is participatory and contributory that allows public participation, together with effective presentation, cultural learning and embodiment, to enhance the end-users’ interpretation of digital heritage architecture. Additionally, this research seeks to establish an inventory in the form of a digital platform that adopts the Historic Urban Landscape (HUL into the Singapore context to better and deepen the understandings of the public towards architectural as well as cultural heritage through an intercultural and intergenerational dialogue. Through HUL, this research hopes that it will better shape conservation strategies and urban planning.

  10. Digital Historic Urban Landscape Methodology for Heritage Impact Assessment of Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widodo, J.; Wong, Y. C.; Ismail, F.

    2017-08-01

    Using the case study of Singapore's existing heritage websites, this research will probe the circumstances of the emerging technology and practice of consuming heritage architecture on a digital platform. Despite the diverse objectives, technology is assumed to help deliver greater interpretation through the use of new and high technology emphasising experience and provide visual fidelity. However, the success is limited as technology is insufficient to provide the past from multiple perspectives. Currently, existing projects provide linear narratives developed through a top-down approach that assumes the end-users as an individual entity and limits heritage as a consumable product. Through this research, we hope to uncover for better experience of digital heritage architecture where interpretation is an evolving `process' that is participatory and contributory that allows public participation, together with effective presentation, cultural learning and embodiment, to enhance the end-users' interpretation of digital heritage architecture. Additionally, this research seeks to establish an inventory in the form of a digital platform that adopts the Historic Urban Landscape (HUL) into the Singapore context to better and deepen the understandings of the public towards architectural as well as cultural heritage through an intercultural and intergenerational dialogue. Through HUL, this research hopes that it will better shape conservation strategies and urban planning.

  11. Is an apicoectomy ever successful? if so, under what conditions? A historical assessment with contemporary overtones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutmann, James L

    2013-01-01

    In 1921, Dr. Thomas R Hinman of Atlanta, Georgia read a paper before the First district Dental Society in New York City that dealt with the management of infected teeth. Adherents of the theories of focal infection and elective localization advocated the extraction of teeth with necrotic pulps and particularly those with periapical lesions. In his presentation, Dr. Hinman overlooked the procedures of root amputation or apicoectomy (terms that were was synonymous at that time), stating that the technique had been abandoned as a failure by oral surgeons. Dr. Hinman later claimed that he had been misunderstood, and that what he really meant was that apicoectomy is only rarely successful. Out of this incident there appeared a lengthy symposium, with contributions from across the United States. While this debate ensued, the techniques of this procedure were being applied and evaluated in the European sector, with a number of treatises expounding on their versatility, acceptability, and applicability far beyond what was being addressed in the United States. This paper will focus on some of the unique historical perspectives from all parties, and clarify these perspectives relative to contemporary philosophies and rationales.

  12. Visual assessment of BIPV retrofit design proposals for selected historical buildings using the saliency map method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ran Xu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available With the increasing awareness of energy efficiency, many old buildings have to undergo a massive facade energy retrofit. How to predict the visual impact which solar installations on the aesthetic cultural value of these buildings has been a heated debate in Switzerland (and throughout the world. The usual evaluation method to describe the visual impact of BIPV is based on semantic and qualitative descriptors, and strongly dependent on personal preferences. The evaluation scale is therefore relative, flexible and imprecise. This paper proposes a new method to accurately measure the visual impact which BIPV installations have on a historical building by using the saliency map method. By imitating working principles of the human eye, it is measured how much the BIPV design proposals differ from the original building facade in the aspect of attracting human visual attention. The result is directly presented in a quantitative manner, and can be used to compare the fitness of different BIPV design proposals. The measuring process is numeric, objective and more precise.  

  13. Citation classics in neuro-oncology: assessment of historical trends and scientific progress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachem, Laureen D; Mansouri, Alireza; Juraschka, Kyle; Taslimi, Shervin; Pirouzmand, Farhad; Zadeh, Gelareh

    2017-09-01

    Citation classics represent the highest cited works in a field and are often regarded as the most influential literature. Analyzing thematic trends in citation classics across eras enables recognition of important historical advances within a field. We present the first analysis of the citation classics in neuro-oncology. The Web of Science database was searched using terms relevant to "neuro-oncology." Articles with >400 citations were identified and the top 100 cited articles were evaluated. The top 100 neuro-oncology citation classics consisted of 43 clinical studies (17 retrospective, 10 prospective, 16 randomized trials), 43 laboratory investigations, 8 reviews/meta-analyses, and 6 guidelines/consensus statements. Articles were classified into 4 themes: 13 pertained to tumor classification, 37 to tumor pathogenesis/clinical presentation, 6 to imaging, 44 to therapy (15 chemotherapy, 10 radiotherapy, 5 surgery, 14 new agents). Gliomas were the most common tumor type examined, with 70 articles. There was a significant increase in the number of citation classics in the late 1990s, which was paralleled by an increase in studies examining tumor pathogenesis, chemotherapy, and new agents along with laboratory and randomized studies. The majority of citation classics in neuro-oncology are related to gliomas and pertain to tumor pathogenesis and treatment. The rise in citation classics in recent years investigating tumor biology, new treatment agents, and chemotherapeutics may reflect increasing scientific interest in nonsurgical treatments for CNS tumors and the need for fundamental investigations into disease processes.

  14. What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

    2016-11-01

    Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences in projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.

  15. Global Assessment of New GRACE Mascons Solutions for Hydrologic Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Save, H.; Zhang, Z.; Scanlon, B. R.; Wiese, D. N.; Landerer, F. W.; Long, D.; Longuevergne, L.; Chen, J.

    2016-12-01

    Advances in GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data processing using new mass concentration (mascon) solutions have greatly increased the spatial localization and amplitude of recovered total Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) signals; however, limited testing has been conduct on land hydrologic applications. In this study we compared TWS anomalies from (1) Center for Space Research mascons (CSR-M) solution with (2) NASA JPL mascon (JPL-M) solution, and with (3) a CSR gridded spherical harmonic rescaled (sf) solution from Tellus (CSRT-GSH.sf) in 176 river basins covering 80% of the global land area. There is good correspondence in TWS anomalies from mascons (CSR-M and JPL-M) and SH solutions based on high correlations between time series (rank correlation coefficients mostly >0.9). The long-term trends in basin TWS anomalies represent a relatively small signal (up to ±20 mm/yr) with differences among GRACE solutions and inter-basin variability increasing with decreasing basin size. Long-term TWS declines are greatest in (semi)arid and irrigated basins. Annual and semiannual signals have much larger amplitudes (up to ±250 mm). There is generally good agreement among GRACE solutions, increasing confidence in seasonal fluctuations from GRACE data. Rescaling spherical harmonics to restore lost signal increases agreement with mascons solutions for long-term trends and seasonal fluctuations. There are many advantages to using GRACE mascons solutions relative to SH solutions, such as reduced leakage from land to ocean increasing signal amplitude, and constraining results by applying geophysical data during processing with little or no post-processing requirements, making mascons more user friendly for non-geodetic users. This inter-comparison of various GRACE solutions should allow hydrologists to better select suitable GRACE products for hydrologic applications.

  16. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Frieler

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1 separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations; (2 quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0 with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3 assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016 and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across

  17. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2017-11-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global

  18. Historical Relationship Between Performance Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Other Types of Risk Assessment in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RECHARD,ROBERT P.

    2000-07-14

    This paper describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed to the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built upon methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty and the tools used to evaluate it.

  19. Accuracy Assessment Points for Fort Laramie National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — The accuracy assessment field work was performed in August and September, 1998 to verify the accuracy of the vegetation communities spatial data developed by the...

  20. Field Plot and Accuracy Assessment Points for Bent's Old Fort National Historic Site Vegetation Mapping Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — Accuracy Assessment, Observation and Plot Points. Plots within the park were identified and sampled in the summer of 2005. In the summer of 2006, randomly selected...

  1. Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park Vegetation Mapping Project - Field Plots, Observation and Accuracy Assessment Points

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This metadata is for the 2008 vegetation (classification) field plots (spatial database) and 2010 accuracy assessment points (spatial database) created from the...

  2. Historical Skills in Compulsory Education: Assessment, Inquiry Based Strategies and Students' Argumentation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cosme J Gómez Carrasco; Pedro Miralles Martínez

    2016-01-01

    ...). According to current thinking, assessment should meet the teaching aims set out by the teacher, it should be another means of monitoring and improving students' learning, of correcting mistakes made...

  3. Update of the U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Historical Record and Sources for Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; Goldfinger, C.

    2013-12-01

    The NOAA-National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborated to conduct the first qualitative United States tsunami hazard assessment, published in 2008 by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). Since that time, significant events such as the 2009 Samoa and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis have affected the U.S. and reinforced the importance of considering all of the evidence when conducting an assessment. In addition, there has been progress in tsunami research that reduces some of the earlier uncertainties. In 2011, the National Academies released their assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program recommending that NOAA and its NTHMP partners, in collaboration with researchers in social and physical sciences, should complete an initial national assessment of tsunami risk and should institute a periodic assessment of the sources of tsunamis that threaten the United States. Therefore, the NTHMP is updating the national tsunami hazard assessment. Although the second assessment will not be a national probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, areas where there is progress in this methodology will be presented. As a result, a national tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment is not possible at this time, but examples of ongoing work will be presented. This paper looks at the data sources in the first report, including an examination of the NGDC historical tsunami database that resulted in a qualitative assessment based on the distribution of runup heights and the frequency of tsunami runups. Although tsunami deaths are a measure of risk rather than hazard, the known tsunami deaths were compared with the qualitative assessments based on frequency and amplitude. The 2009 American Samoa tsunami resulted in a change for the U.S. Pacific island territories qualitative tsunami hazard assessment from 'Moderate' to 'High'. The NGDC tsunami database contains reported tsunamis and is therefore limited to written records existing for an area

  4. Online Assessment of Satellite-Derived Global Precipitation Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, D.; Teng, W.; Kempler, S.

    2012-01-01

    inter-comparing both versions of TRMM products in their areas of interest. Making this service available to users will help them to better understand associated changes. We plan to implement this inter-comparison in TRMM standard monthly products with the IPWG algorithms. The plans outlined above will complement and accelerate the existing and ongoing validation activities in the community as well as enhance data services for TRMM and the future Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

  5. Data Mining of Historical Human Data to Assess the Risk of Injury due to Dynamic Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Jesica; Somers, Jeffrey T.; Newby, N.; Gernhardt, Michael

    2014-01-01

    deflection was determined from motion capture video of the impact test. HIC- 15 and BRIC were calculated from head acceleration responses. Given the number of human subjects for each test condition a confidence interval of injury probability will be obtained. RESULTS: Results will be discussed in terms of injury-risk probability estimates based on the human data set evaluated. Also, gaps in the data set will be identified. These gaps could be one of two types. One is areas where additional THOR testing would increase the comparable human data set, thereby improving confidence in the injury probability rate. The other is where additional human testing would assist in obtaining information on other acceleration levels or directions. DISCUSSION: The historical human data showed validity of the THOR ATD for supplemental testing. The historical human data are limited in scope, however. Further data are needed to characterize the effects of sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight on risk of injury

  6. A historical assessment of sources and uses of wheat varietal innovations in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charity R. Nhemachena

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We undertook a historical review of wheat varietal improvements in South Africa from 1891 to 2013, thus extending the period of previous analyses. We identified popular wheat varieties, particularly those that form the basis for varietal improvements, and attempted to understand how policy changes in the wheat sector have affected wheat varietal improvements in the country over time. The empirical analysis is based on the critical review of information from policies, the varieties bred and their breeders, the years in which those varieties were bred, and pedigree information gathered from the journal Farming in South Africa, sourced mainly from the National Library of South Africa and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT database. A database of the sources and uses of wheat varietal innovations in South Africa was developed using information from the above sources. The data, analysed using trend and graphical analysis, indicate that, from the 1800s, wheat varietal improvements in the country focused on adaptability to the production area, yield potential and stability and agronomic characteristics (e.g. tolerance to diseases, pests and aluminium toxicity. An analysis of the sources of wheat varietal improvements during the different periods indicates that wheat breeding was driven initially by individual breeders and agricultural colleges. The current main sources of wheat varietal improvements in South Africa are Sensako, the Agricultural Research Council’s Small Grain Institute (ARC–SGI and Pannar. The structural changes in the agricultural sector, particularly the establishment of the ARC–SGI and the deregulation of the wheat sector, have helped to harness the previously fragmented efforts in terms of wheat breeding. The most popular varieties identified for further analysis of cost attribution and the benefits of wheat varietal improvements were Gariep, Elands and Duzi.

  7. The use of taxation records in assessing historical floods in South Moravia, Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Řezníčková, L.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.; Stachoň, Z.; Soukalová, E.; Dobrovolný, P.

    2014-10-01

    Since the second half of the 17th century, tax relief has been available to farmers and landowners to offset flood damage to property (buildings) and land (fields, meadows, pastures, gardens) in South Moravia, Czech Republic. Historically, the written applications for this were supported by a relatively efficient bureaucratic process that left a clear data trail of documentation, preserved at several levels: in the communities affected, in regional offices, and in the Moravian Land Office, all of which are to be found in estate and family collections in the Moravian Land Archives in the city of Brno, the provincial capital. As well as detailed information about damage done and administrative responses to it, data are often preserved as to the flood event itself, the time of its occurrence and its impacts, sometimes together with causes and stages. The final flood database based on taxation records is used here to describe the temporal and spatial density of both flood events and the records themselves. The information derived is used to help create long-term flood chronologies for the rivers Dyje, Jihlava, Svratka and Morava, combining floods interpreted from taxation records with other documentary data and floods derived from later systematic hydrological measurements (water levels, discharges). Common periods of higher flood frequency appear largely in the periods 1821-1850 and 1921-1950, although this shifts to several other decades for individual rivers. A number of uncertainties are inseparable from flood data taxation records: their spatial and temporal incompleteness; the inevitable limitation to larger-scale damage and restriction to the summer half-year; and the different characters of rivers, including land-use changes and channel modifications. Taxation data have considerable potential for extending our knowledge of past floods for the rest of the Czech Republic, not to mention other European countries in which records have survived.

  8. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming increases the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and this could lead to more intense rainfalls and possibly increasing natural hazards in the form of flooding in some regions. This implies that traditional practice of using historical hydrological records alone is somewhat limited for supporting long-term water infrastructure planning. This has motivated recent global scale studies to evaluate river flood risks (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014, Sadoff et al., 2015) and adaptations benefits (e.g., Jongman et al., 2015). To support decision-making in river flood risk reduction, this study takes a further step to examine the benefits and corresponding residual risks for a range of flood protection levels. To do that, we channelled runoff information of a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and each CMIP5 model (historic and future periods) into a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011). We incorporated the latest global river width data (Yamazaki et al., 2014) into CaMa-Flood and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the flood protection benefits. We quantify the corresponding residual risks using a mathematical approach that is consistent with the modelling structure of CaMa-Flood. Globally and regionally, we find that the benefits of flood protection level peak somewhere between 20 and 500 years; residual risks diminish

  9. Assessing the Effects of Corporate Social Responsibility Standards in Global Value Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund-Thomsen, Peter

    This paper considers the issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR) standard impact assessment in global value chains. CSR standards have proliferated in recent years, and several studies have attempted to assess their effects on local producers, workers, and the environment in developing...

  10. Framework for e-learning assessment in dental education: a global model for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arevalo, Carolina R; Bayne, Stephen C; Beeley, Josie A; Brayshaw, Christine J; Cox, Margaret J; Donaldson, Nora H; Elson, Bruce S; Grayden, Sharon K; Hatzipanagos, Stylianos; Johnson, Lynn A; Reynolds, Patricia A; Schönwetter, Dieter J

    2013-05-01

    The framework presented in this article demonstrates strategies for a global approach to e-curricula in dental education by considering a collection of outcome assessment tools. By combining the outcomes for overall assessment, a global model for a pilot project that applies e-assessment tools to virtual learning environments (VLE), including haptics, is presented. Assessment strategies from two projects, HapTEL (Haptics in Technology Enhanced Learning) and UDENTE (Universal Dental E-learning), act as case-user studies that have helped develop the proposed global framework. They incorporate additional assessment tools and include evaluations from questionnaires and stakeholders' focus groups. These measure each of the factors affecting the classical teaching/learning theory framework as defined by Entwistle in a standardized manner. A mathematical combinatorial approach is proposed to join these results together as a global assessment. With the use of haptic-based simulation learning, exercises for tooth preparation assessing enamel and dentine were compared to plastic teeth in manikins. Equivalence for student performance for haptic versus traditional preparation methods was established, thus establishing the validity of the haptic solution for performing these exercises. Further data collected from HapTEL are still being analyzed, and pilots are being conducted to validate the proposed test measures. Initial results have been encouraging, but clearly the need persists to develop additional e-assessment methods for new learning domains.

  11. Geothermal energy in deep aquifers : A global assessment of the resource base for direct heat utilization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Limberger, Jon; Boxem, Thijs; Pluymaekers, Maarten; Bruhn, D.F.; Manzella, Adele; Calcagno, Philippe; Beekman, Fred; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.; van Wees, Jan Diederik

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we present results of a global resource assessment for geothermal energy within deep aquifers for direct heat utilization. Greenhouse heating, spatial heating, and spatial cooling are considered in this assessment. We derive subsurface temperatures from geophysical data and apply a

  12. Geothermal energy in deep aquifers: A global assessment of the resource base for direct heat utilization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Limberger, J.; Boxem, T.; Pluymaekers, M.; Bruhn, D.; Manzella, A.; Calcagno, P.; Beekman, F.; Cloetingh, S.; Wees, J.D. van

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we present results of a global resource assessment for geothermal energy within deep aquifers for direct heat utilization. Greenhouse heating, spatial heating, and spatial cooling are considered in this assessment. We derive subsurface temperatures from geophysical data and apply a

  13. Geothermal energy in deep aquifers : A global assessment of the resource base for direct heat utilization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Limberger, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/371572037; Boxem, T.; Pluymaekers, Maarten; Bruhn, David; Manzella, Adelle; Calcagno, Philippe; Beekman, F.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/123556856; Cloetingh, S.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/069161836; van Wees, J.-D.

    In this paper we present results of a global resource assessment for geothermal energy within deep aquifers for direct heat utilization. Greenhouse heating, spatial heating, and spatial cooling are considered in this assessment. We derive subsurface temperatures from geophysical data and apply a

  14. How to assess the Efficiency and "Uncertainty" of Global Sensitivity Analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghnegahdar, Amin; Razavi, Saman

    2016-04-01

    Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an important paradigm for understanding model behavior, characterizing uncertainty, improving model calibration, etc. Conventional "global" SA (GSA) approaches are rooted in different philosophies, resulting in different and sometime conflicting and/or counter-intuitive assessment of sensitivity. Moreover, most global sensitivity techniques are highly computationally demanding to be able to generate robust and stable sensitivity metrics over the entire model response surface. Accordingly, a novel sensitivity analysis method called Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS) is introduced to overcome the aforementioned issues. VARS uses the Variogram concept to efficiently provide a comprehensive assessment of global sensitivity across a range of scales within the parameter space. Based on the VARS principles, in this study we present innovative ideas to assess (1) the efficiency of GSA algorithms and (2) the level of confidence we can assign to a sensitivity assessment. We use multiple hydrological models with different levels of complexity to explain the new ideas.

  15. An Approach for Assessing the Benefits of IT Investments in Global Supply Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Betz, Michaela; Henningsson, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops and demonstrates a novel approach for ex-ante assessment of business benefits from IT investments in global supply chains. Extant IT assessment approaches are typically based on the assumption that benefit realization from IT investments involves a single stakeholder and are pro......-duced by the technology as an isolated product. In contrast, research on global supply chains has shown that benefits generated from IT investments in this domain are typically generated by the coor-dinated use of many stakeholders and by technologies producing complimentary effects in systemic relationships....... The assessment approach in this paper brings the contingent inter-organizational and technological dependencies of IT investments to the forefront of the assessment. It provides actors in industries relating to global supply chains the means to better apprehend the possible benefits from an IT investment...

  16. Human health risk assessment for radiological and chemical contaminants at site with historical contamination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garisto, N.C.; Cooper, F. [SENES Consultants Limited, Richmond Hill, Ontario (Canada); Peters, R. [Cameco Corp., Port Hope, Ontario (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    A Human Health Risk Assessment was carried out for a uranium conversion facility in Ontario, located on a site with a history of contamination. The HHRA assessed risk to workers and the public from exposure to radionuclides and non-radionuclides in soil and groundwater associated with the site. The results indicated that there is no undue risk from exposure to radionuclides. Small potential long-term risks were identified with exposure of hypothetical receptors to arsenic, but this exposure was below Canadian background levels. Recommendations are provided to address residual uncertainty. (author)

  17. Life-cycle-assessment of the historical development of air pollution control and energy recovery in waste incineration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Anders; Riber, C.; Fruergaard, Thilde

    2010-01-01

    of the waste, but also the energy recovery efficiency has a large importance. The historical development of air pollution control in waste incineration was studied through life-cycle-assessment modelling of eight different air pollution control technologies. The results showed a drastic reduction...... in the release of air emissions and consequently a significant reduction in the potential environmental impacts of waste incineration. Improvements of a factor 0.85–174 were obtained in the different impact potentials as technology developed from no emission control at all, to the best available emission control...... technologies of today (2010). The importance of efficient energy recovery was studied through seven different combinations of heat and electricity recovery, which were modelled to substitute energy produced from either coal or natural gas. The best air pollution control technology was used at the incinerator...

  18. Health technology assessments as a mechanism for increased value for money: recommendations to the Global Fund.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teerawattananon, Yot; McQueston, Kate; Glassman, Amanda; Yothasamut, Jomkwan; Myint, Chaw Yin

    2013-08-21

    The Global Fund is experiencing increased pressure to optimize results and improve its impact per dollar spent. It is also in transition from a provider of emergency funding, to a long-term, sustainable financing mechanism. This paper assesses the efficacy of current Global Fund investment and examines how health technology assessments (HTAs) can be used to provide guidance on the relative priority of health interventions currently subsidized by the Global Fund. In addition, this paper identifies areas where the application of HTAs can exert the greatest impact and proposes ways in which this tool could be incorporated, as a routine component, into application, decision, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation processes. Finally, it addresses the challenges facing the Global Fund in realizing the full potential of HTAs.

  19. Classification and plausibility assessment of historical and future weather and climate anomalies (application for the Wupper River Basin, Germany)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibel, Marc; Lorza, Paula

    2017-04-01

    In the frame of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to onGOing water management), the effects of climate change scenarios on the water cycle in the Wupper River Basin are being currently investigated. The Wupper catchment area is prone to flash floods in summer, winter floods as well as dry periods. The occurrence of these events has increased in the last decades together with the shifting of the rainy season. BINGO approach focuses on, among others: a) identifying past weather extremes and anomalies due to climate change; and b) gaining deeper knowledge on the effects of soil moisture on water balance and runoff generation processes for reservoir management and enhancement of Wupper Association's flood early warning system. Historical hydro-meteorological extreme events are assessed based on daily records of long-term precipitation time series (ca. 80 years) as well as precipitation time series from downscaled reanalysis products (i.e., ERA-Interim). The determination of representative indices, e.g., Weather Extremity Index (WEI) or the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) serves to compensate for uncertainties in spatial and temporal recording of the parameters of individual processes. The WEI establishes the highest rainfall amount per station and its rarity, the extent of the affected area, and the event duration. For the evaluation of historical climate signals in the reference period and for the assessment of future scenarios, deviation of the mean monthly observed precipitation from the long-term mean value is determined as a first approach for several stations along the catchment area for individual months and different time scales. As a second approach, different indices such as SPI and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are calculated for different time scales in order to determine whether they were anomalously dry or wet. SPEI is more suitable for climate change analysis than SPI since the former considers not

  20. Assessing a Tornado Climatology from Global Tornado Intensity Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feuerstein, Bernold; Dotzek, Nikolai; Grieser, Jürgen

    2005-02-01

    Recent work demonstrated that the shape of tornado intensity distributions from various regions worldwide is well described by Weibull functions. This statistical modeling revealed a strong correlation between the fit parameters c for shape and b for scale regardless of the data source. In the present work it is shown that the quality of the Weibull fits is optimized if only tornado reports of F1 and higher intensity are used and that the c-b correlation does indeed reflect a universal feature of the observed tornado intensity distributions. For regions with likely supercell tornado dominance, this feature is the number ratio of F4 to F3 tornado reports R(F4/F3) = 0.238. The c-b diagram for the Weibull shape and scale parameters is used as a climatological chart, which allows different types of tornado climatology to be distinguished, presumably arising from supercell versus nonsupercell tornadogenesis. Assuming temporal invariance of the climatology and using a detection efficiency function for tornado observations, a stationary climatological probability distribution from large tornado records (U.S. decadal data 1950-99) is extracted. This can be used for risk assessment, comparative studies on tornado intensity distributions worldwide, and estimates of the degree of underreporting for areas with poor databases. For the 1990s U.S. data, a likely tornado underreporting of the weak events (F0, F1) by a factor of 2 can be diagnosed, as well as asymptotic climatological c,b values of c = 1.79 and b = 2.13, to which a convergence in the 1950-99 U.S. decadal data is verified.

  1. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data - Part 1: Assessment of Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, T. A.; Peel, M. C.; Karoly, D. J.

    2014-05-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Uncertainty between GCM projections of future climate can be assessed through analysis of runs of a given scenario from a wide range of GCMs. Within GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The objective of this, the first of two complementary papers, is to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by identifying and removing poorly performing GCMs prior to the analysis presented in the second paper. Here we assess how well 46 runs from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) GCMs are able to reproduce observed precipitation and temperature climatological statistics. The performance of each GCM in reproducing these statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the CRU 3.10 gridded dataset and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index and RMSE between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following five models as the better performing models for the next phase of our analysis in assessing the uncertainty in runoff estimated from GCM projections of precipitation and temperature: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research), MIROCM (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for

  2. National Assessment of Oil and Gas Project: Areas of Historical Oil and Gas Exploration and Production in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biewick, Laura

    2008-01-01

    This report contains maps and associated spatial data showing historical oil and gas exploration and production in the United States. Because of the proprietary nature of many oil and gas well databases, the United States was divided into cells one-quarter square mile and the production status of all wells in a given cell was aggregated. Base-map reference data are included, using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Map, the USGS and American Geological Institute (AGI) Global GIS, and a World Shaded Relief map service from the ESRI Geography Network. A hardcopy map was created to synthesize recorded exploration data from 1859, when the first oil well was drilled in the U.S., to 2005. In addition to the hardcopy map product, the data have been refined and made more accessible through the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. The cell data are included in a GIS database constructed for spatial analysis via the USGS Internet Map Service or by importing the data into GIS software such as ArcGIS. The USGS internet map service provides a number of useful and sophisticated geoprocessing and cartographic functions via an internet browser. Also included is a video clip of U.S. oil and gas exploration and production through time.

  3. Re-assessment of RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD3.X using historical integral experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, Chris M.; Hohorst, Judith K. [Innovative Systems Software, Ammon, ID (United States)

    2017-10-15

    The RELAP/SCDAPSIM code, designed to predict the behaviour of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed by Innovative Systems Software (ISS) as part of the international SCDAP Development and Training Program (STDP). The ISS developed RELAP/SCDAPSIM uses the publicly available SCDAP/RELAP5 models and correlations developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in combination with proprietary features developed by ISS and STDP members. Experimental versions contain improved models for LWRs including improved SCDAP models and correlations. This paper summarises and describes the new models that were incorporated into the experimental versions of RELAP/SCDAPSIM along with the extensive assessment and verification activities that are currently underway at ISS and various universities and institutes around the world along with examples of thee assessment results.

  4. The Historical Speciation of Mauremys Sensu Lato: Ancestral Area Reconstruction and Interspecific Gene Flow Level Assessment Provide New Insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Huaxing; Jiang, Yuan; Nie, Liuwang; Yin, Huazong; Li, Haifeng; Dong, Xianmei; Zhao, Feifei; Zhang, Huanhuan; Pu, Youguang; Huang, Zhenfeng; Song, Jiaolian; Sun, Entao

    2015-01-01

    Mauremys sensu lato was divided into Mauremys, Chinemys, Ocadia, and Annamemys based on earlier research on morphology. Phylogenetic research on this group has been controversial because of disagreements regarding taxonomy, and the historical speciation is still poorly understood. In this study, 32 individuals of eight species that are widely distributed in Eurasia were collected. The complete mitochondrial (mt) sequences of 14 individuals of eight species were sequenced. Phylogenetic relationships, interspecific divergence times, and ancestral area reconstructions were explored using mt genome data (10,854 bp). Subsequent interspecific gene flow level assessment was performed using five unlinked polymorphic microsatellite loci. The Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses revealed a paraphyletic relationship among four old genera (Mauremys, Annamemys, Chinemys, and Ocadia) and suggested the four old genera should be merged into the genus (Mauremys). Ancestral area reconstruction and divergence time estimation suggested Southeast Asia may be the area of origin for the common ancestral species of this genus and genetic drift may have played a decisive role in species divergence due to the isolated event of a glacial age. However, M. japonica may have been speciated due to the creation of the island of Japan. The detection of extensive gene flow suggested no vicariance occurred between Asia and Southeast Asia. Inconsistent results between gene flow assessment and phylogenetic analysis revealed the hybrid origin of M. mutica (Southeast Asian). Here ancestral area reconstruction and interspecific gene flow level assessment were first used to explore species origins and evolution of Mauremys sensu lato, which provided new insights on this genus.

  5. An Assessment of Global Oral Health Education in U.S. Dental Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Janet; Gluch, Joan I

    2017-02-01

    Dental schools need to produce graduates who are adequately prepared to respond to the complex needs and challenges of the increasingly diverse and interconnected world in which they will practice dentistry. To enhance discussions about the coverage of global oral health competencies in dental education, the aims of this study were to assess how global health education is currently incorporated into predoctoral dental training in the U.S. and which global oral health competencies are being covered. Surveys were emailed to all 64 accredited U.S. dental schools during the 2015-16 academic year. Respondents from 52 schools completed the survey (response rate 81%). The results showed that social determinants of oral diseases and conditions, how to identify barriers to use of oral health services, and how to work with patients who have limited dental health literacy were covered in the greatest number of responding schools' curricula. Key areas of global health curricula that were covered rarely included global dental infrastructure, data collection design, and horizontal and vertical programming approaches to health improvement. Despite current dialogue on the addition of global oral health competencies to dental curricula, only 41% of the responding schools were currently planning to expand their global oral health education. Based on these results, the authors conclude that it may be most feasible for dental schools to add recommended global oral health competencies to their curricula by incorporating didactic content into already established courses.

  6. Porphyry copper assessment of northeast Asia: Far East Russia and northeasternmost China: Chapter W in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihalasky, Mark J.; Ludington, Stephen; Alexeiev, Dmitriy V.; Frost, Thomas P.; Light, Thomas D.; Briggs, Deborah A.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Wallis, John C.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Panteleyev, Andre

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey assesses resources (mineral, energy, water, environmental, and biologic) at regional, national, and global scales to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources in undiscovered deposits.

  7. Quantitative flood risk assessment in historic cities: sensitivity to hydraulic modeling and open socio-economic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Castelli, Fabio; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Mazzanti, Bernardo

    2014-05-01

    The assessment of flood risk in urban areas is considered nowadays a crucial issue to be addressed by technicians and public authorities and requires the estimation of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Each step of the risk assessment brings its uncertainties to the final result, thus the analysis of the sensitivity to the different contributors is required. Since the damages are generally evaluated through stage-damage functions one of the most important contribution is the estimated value of the water depth. Water depth is the outcome of hydraulic models that can be implemented with different modeling approaches and levels of spatial detail, thus providing flood depth maps that may differ in the extension of the inundated area and in the flood depth value. It is generally argued that 2D models are the most suitable to describe flood behavior in the urban environment although most of applications are carried out in small and sparse urban areas. In the historic cities a 2D model provides reliable results if the grid size is small enough to describe the street/building pattern, implying long simulation runs. Another contribution is given by monetary values assigned to the damage categories that may come from different proxy variables and may oscillate according to the real estate quotations. The risk assessment here presented is made possible thanks to a methodology based on the open data, both socio-economic and territorial, that are available in the web. In this work the risk assessment procedure and the sensitivity analysis are applied to the main cities located along the Arno river, Pisa and Florence (Italy) that are usually considered of broad interest for the importance of urban and cultural heritage. The risk is estimated accounting for structures, household contents, commercial and tertiary sectors which are the most representative of the studied areas. The evaluation and mapping of micro-scale flood risk is carried out in a GIS environment using open data

  8. Historical and Paleo Events as an input for Seismic And Associated Natural Hazard Assessment of Javakheti highland (South Georgia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elashvili, M.; Javakhishvili, Z.; Godoladze, T.; Karakhanyan, A.; Sukhishvili, L.; Nikolaeva, E.; Sokhadze, G.; Avanesyan, M.

    2012-12-01

    of historical earthquakes of 1899 and 1089, as well as Archaeo-Seismological site along the Javakheti seismic fault will be presented. History on Natural Disasters in the region can be complemented by Bertakana Paleo-Landslide, to be discussed separately as one of the mega events in the Area. The mentioned events are considered as an important input for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Javakheti Region.

  9. Quantitative analysis of pulse thermography data for degradation assessment of historical buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maio, Rosa; Piegari, Ester; Mancini, Cecilia; Chiapparino, Antonella

    2015-06-01

    In the last decades, infrared thermography has been successfully applied to various materials and structures for the assessment of their state of conservation and planning suitable restoration works. To this aim, mathematical models are required to characterize thermal anomaly sources, such as detachments, water infiltration and material decomposition processes. In this paper, an algorithm based on the conservative finite difference method is used to analyse pulse thermography data acquired on an ancient building in the Pompeii archaeological site (Naples, Italy). The numerical study is applied to both broad and narrow elongated thermal anomalies. In particular, from the comparison between simulated and experimental thermal decays, the plaster thickness was characterized in terms of thermal properties and areas of possible future detachments, and moisture infiltration depths were identified.

  10. Rapid assessment of tsunami impact from real-time seismology and geographic, historical other datasets using machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelini, Alberto; Lomax, Anthony

    2017-04-01

    The impact of an earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, severe weather or other natural disaster is related to: the intensity of the hazard; the vulnerability or exposure of the population, such as housing quality, infrastructure and proximity to a coastlines; and the capacity to resist and cope with the disaster. Rapid assessment by monitoring agencies of the impact of a natural event is fundamental for early warning and response. We previously* proposed the "tsunami importance" parameter, It, for characterizing the strength of a tsunami. This parameter combines 5 descriptive indices from the NOAA/WDC Historical Tsunami Database: 4 tsunami impact measures (deaths, injuries, damage, houses destroyed), and maximum water height. Accordingly, It = 2 corresponds approximately to the JMA threshold for issuing a ''Tsunami Warning'' whereas the largest or most devastating tsunamis typically have It = 10. Here we discuss extending this simple, 5-component parameter with additional impact-related measures from relevant databases (e.g., LandScan population density, major infrastructures) and historical / archaeological information, and measures that might be obtained in near-real-time (e.g., emergency services, news, social media). We combine these measures with seismological and other real-time observations as an ensemble of features within automated procedures to estimate impact and guide decision making. We examine using modern machine learning methodologies to train and calibrate the procedures, while working with high-dimensional feature space. * Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2011), Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration and P-wave dominant period: the importance of length and depth of faulting, Geophys. J. Int., 185, 283-291, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04916.x

  11. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

    2017-04-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine

  12. USGS National and Global Oil and Gas Assessment Project-Burgos, Tampico-Misantla, and Sabinas Provinces, Northeast Mexico, Assessment Unit Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Assessment Unit is the fundamental unit used in the National and Global Petroleum Assessment Project for the assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources....

  13. Agreement between the methods: Subjective Global Nutritional Assessment and the nutritional assessment of the World Health Organization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimenta, Fabiana S; Oliveira, Cássia M; Hattori, Wallisen T; Teixeira, Kely R

    2017-11-12

    To assess the agreement between the results of the Subjective Global Nutritional Assessment questionnaire, adapted for children and adolescents of the Brazilian population, and the nutritional status assessment method through growth curves and the classification of the World Health Organization in a pediatric hospital service. This was an analytical, quantitative, cross-sectional study. During the data collection period, the nutritional status of all patients from 0 to 12 years of age, admitted to the pediatric unit of a university hospital, was concomitantly assessed according to the Subjective Global Nutritional Assessment and World Health Organization curves. To determine the assessment and agreement between these methods, the Kappa and Kendall coefficients were used, respectively, considering a significance level of 5%. Sixty-one children participated, with a predominance of males. It was observed that the highest frequency of equivalent results occurred among the group classified as well nourished, and that only the height/age variable showed a close agreement between the methods. Additionally, there was a good correlation only for the weight/height variable between the assessment tools used. Due to the low agreement between the methods, the combination of both may be beneficial for the nutritional assessment of pediatric patients, collaborating with the early diagnosis of nutritional alterations and facilitating the use of adequate dietary therapy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda.

  14. A Biological Condition Gradient Model for Historical Assessment of Estuarine Habitat Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shumchenia, Emily J.; Pelletier, Marguerite C.; Cicchetti, Giancarlo; Davies, Susan; Pesch, Carol E.; Deacutis, Christopher F.; Pryor, Margherita

    2015-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems are affected by ever-increasing natural and human pressures. Because the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics unique to estuarine ecosystems control the ways that biological resources respond to ecosystem stressors, we present a flexible and adaptable biological assessment method for estuaries. The biological condition gradient (BCG) is a scientific framework of biological response to increasing anthropogenic stress that is comprehensive and ecosystem based and evaluates environmental conditions and the status of ecosystem services in order to identify, communicate, and prioritize management action. Using existing data, we constructed the first estuarine BCG framework that examines changes in habitat structure through time. Working in a New England (U.S.) estuary with a long history of human influence, we developed an approach to define a reference level, which we described as a "minimally disturbed" range of conditions for the ecosystem, anchored by observations before 1850 AD. Like many estuaries in the U.S., the relative importance of environmental stressors changed over time, but even qualitative descriptions of the biological indicators' status provided useful information for defining condition levels. This BCG demonstrated that stressors rarely acted alone and that declines in one biological indicator influenced the declines of others. By documenting the biological responses to cumulative stressors, the BCG inherently suggests an ecosystem-based approach to management. Additionally, the BCG process initiates thinking over long time scales and can be used to inspire scientists, managers, and the public toward environmental action.

  15. Two Novel Applications of an Integrated Model for the Assessment of Global Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-12-01

    To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model, called H08, simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1.0°×1.0°or 0.5°×0.5° (longitude and latitude). Here, we present two novel applications of H08. First, a global hydrological simulation was conducted for 10 years from 1986 to 1995 at a spatial resolution of 1.0°×1.0°, and global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies using conventional annual basis indices. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3) and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately -11% to +5% globally. Second, global flows of virtual water (i.e. the volume of water consumption required to produce commodities imported to an exporting nation) were estimated. The H08 model enabled us to simulate the virtual water content of major crops consistent with their global hydrological simulation. Moreover, we were able to assess two major sources of virtual water flow or content simultaneously: green water (evapotranspiration originated from precipitation) and blue water (evapotranspiration originated from irrigation). Blue water was further subdivided into three subcategories (i.e., streamflow, medium-size reservoirs, and nonrenewable and nonlocal blue water). Using global trade data for 2000

  16. Assessment of global DNA methylation in the first trimester fetal tissues exposed to maternal cigarette smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fa, Svetlana; Larsen, Trine Vilsbøll; Bilde, Katrine; Daugaard, Tina F; Ernst, Emil H; Olesen, Rasmus H; Mamsen, Linn S; Ernst, Erik; Larsen, Agnete; Nielsen, Anders L

    2016-01-01

    Maternal cigarette smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of negative health consequences for the exposed child. Epigenetic mechanisms constitute a likely link between the prenatal exposure to maternal cigarette smoking and the increased risk in later life for diverse pathologies. Maternal smoking induces gene-specific DNA methylation alterations as well as global DNA hypermethylation in the term placentas and hypomethylation in the cord blood. Early pregnancy represents a developmental time where the fetal epigenome is remodeled and accordingly can be expected to be highly prone to exposures with an epigenetic impact. We have assessed the influence of maternal cigarette smoking during the first trimester for fetal global DNA methylation. We analyzed the human fetal intestines and livers as well as the placentas from the first trimester pregnancies. Global DNA methylation levels were quantified with ELISA using a methylcytosine antibody as well as with the bisulfite pyrosequencing of surrogate markers for global methylation status, LINE-1, and AluYb8. We identified gender-specific differences in global DNA methylation levels, but no significant DNA methylation changes in exposure responses to the first trimester maternal cigarette smoking. Acknowledging that only examining subsets of global DNA methylation markers and fetal sample availability represents possible limitations for the analyses, our presented results indicate that the first trimester maternal cigarette smoking is not manifested in immediate aberrations of fetal global DNA methylation.

  17. Assessment of historical leak model methodology as applied to the REDOX high-level waste tank SX-108

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JONES, T.E.

    1999-09-22

    Using the Historical Leak Model approach, the estimated leak rate (and therefore, projected leak volume) for Tank 241-SX-108 could not be reproduced using the data included in the initial document describing the leak methodology. An analysis of parameters impacting tank heat load calculations strongly suggest that the historical tank operating data lack the precision and accuracy required to estimate tank leak volumes using the Historical Leak Model methodology.

  18. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Bouwman, Arno; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2013-12-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded 19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP (1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures.

  19. Flaws in the LNT single-hit model for cancer risk: An historical assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2017-10-01

    The LNT single-hit model was derived from the Nobel Prize-winning research of Herman J. Muller who showed that x-rays could induce gene mutations in Drosophila and that the dose response for these so-called mutational events was linear. Lewis J. Stadler, another well-known and respected geneticist at the time, strongly disagreed with and challenged Muller's claims. Detailed evaluations by Stadler over a prolonged series of investigations revealed that Muller's experiments had induced gross heritable chromosomal damage instead of specific gene mutations as had been claimed by Muller at his Nobel Lecture. These X-ray-induced alterations became progressively more frequent and were of larger magnitude (more destructive) with increasing doses. Thus, Muller's claim of having induced discrete gene mutations represented a substantial speculative overreach and was, in fact, without proof. The post hoc arguments of Muller to support his gene mutation hypothesis were significantly challenged and weakened by a series of new findings in the areas of cytogenetics, reverse mutation, adaptive and repair processes, and modern molecular methods for estimating induced genetic damage. These findings represented critical and substantial limitations to Muller's hypothesis of X-ray-induced gene mutations. Furthermore, they challenged the scientific foundations used in support of the LNT single-hit model by severing the logical nexus between Muller's data on radiation-induced inheritable alterations and the LNT single-hit model. These findings exposed fundamental scientific flaws that undermined not only the seminal recommendation of the 1956 BEAR I Genetics Panel to adopt the LNT single-hit Model for risk assessment but also any rationale for its continued use in the present day. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Utilizing the Global Land Cover 2000 reference dataset for a comparative accuracy assessment of 1 km global land cover maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, M.; Tsendbazazr, N. E.; Herold, M.; Jung, M.; Mayaux, P.; Goehman, H.

    2015-04-01

    Many investigators use global land cover (GLC) maps for different purposes, such as an input for global climate models. The current GLC maps used for such purposes are based on different remote sensing data, methodologies and legends. Consequently, comparison of GLC maps is difficult and information about their relative utility is limited. The objective of this study is to analyse and compare the thematic accuracies of GLC maps (i.e., IGBP-DISCover, UMD, MODIS, GLC2000 and SYNMAP) at 1 km resolutions by (a) re-analysing the GLC2000 reference dataset, (b) applying a generalized GLC legend and (c) comparing their thematic accuracies at different homogeneity levels. The accuracy assessment was based on the GLC2000 reference dataset with 1253 samples that were visually interpreted. The legends of the GLC maps and the reference datasets were harmonized into 11 general land cover classes. There results show that the map accuracy estimates vary up to 10-16% depending on the homogeneity of the reference point (HRP) for all the GLC maps. An increase of the HRP resulted in higher overall accuracies but reduced accuracy confidence for the GLC maps due to less number of accountable samples. The overall accuracy of the SYNMAP was the highest at any HRP level followed by the GLC2000. The overall accuracies of the maps also varied by up to 10% depending on the definition of agreement between the reference and map categories in heterogeneous landscape. A careful consideration of heterogeneous landscape is therefore recommended for future accuracy assessments of land cover maps.

  1. Assessment of wind and solar power in global low-carbon energy scenarios: An introduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Carrara, Samuel; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Johnson, Nils; Mima, Silvana; Arent, Douglas

    2017-04-07

    This preface introduces the special section on the assessment of wind and solar in global low-carbon energy scenarios. The special section documents the results of a coordinated research effort to improve the representation of variable renewable energies (VRE), including wind and solar power, in Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and presents an overview of the results obtained in the underlying coordinated model inter-comparison exercise.

  2. Health impact assessment, human rights and global public policy: a critical appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Samuel, Alex; O'Keefe, Eileen

    2007-03-01

    Public policy decisions in both the social and economic spheres have enormous impact on global public health. As a result of this, and of the skewed global distribution of power and resources, health impact assessment (HIA) potentially has a key role to play in foreign policy-making and global public policy-making. Governments, multilateral bodies and transnational corporations need to be held to account for the health impacts of their policies and practices. One route towards achieving this objective involves the inclusion of human rights assessments within HIA. International commitments to human rights instruments and standards can be used as a global auditing tool. Methodological issues may limit the effectiveness of HIA in promoting health equity. These issues include the use of procedures that favour those holding power in the policy process or the use of procedures that fail to apply values of equity and participation. The identification and production of evidence that includes the interests of less powerful groups is a priority for HIA and would be furthered if a human rights-based method of HIA were developed. Because HIA considers all types of policies and examines all potential determinants of health, it can play a part when foreign policy is developed and global decisions are made to treat people as rights holders. Since the human right to health is shaped by the determinants of health, developing links between the right to health assessment (that is, an assessment of the impact of policies on the right to health) and HIA--as recently proposed by the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the right to health--could strengthen the development of foreign policy and global decisions. Such links should be pursued and applied to the development of foreign policy and to the operation of multilateral bodies.

  3. Assessment of Rock Mass Stability in the Historic Area of Levels IV-V of the "Wieliczka" Salt Mine

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Obyrn, Kajetan; Hydzik-Wiśniewska, Joanna

    2017-03-01

    As a result, of more than 700 years of exploitation in the Wieliczka Salt Mine, a network of underground workings spreading over eleven levels was created. All mine workings of significant historic and natural qualities and the majority of functional mine workings designated to be preserved are located on levels I to V. The most precious of them, available to tourists, are located in the central part of the Mine on levels I-III. The Mine is not anticipating to make levels IV, Kołobrzeg and V available for a wider range of visitors, even though there are historically and naturally precious workings in those areas as well. The most valuable of the mine workings come from the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and were exploited mainly in a bed of fore-shaft salt, Spiza salt and the oldest ones. The characteristic feature of these excavations, distinguish them from the chambers located on the levels I-III, is the room-and-pillar system that had been used there. Mine workings exploited in this system measure up to 100 metres in length, and the unsupported pillars standing between the chambers measuring 4-10 metres in width were remained. The described above levels, including levels of VI-IX are to provide a stable support for the workings located higher up. The remaining part of the mine, with the exception of the function workings, is designated for liquidation by backfilling. The article presents an assessment of stability of the mine workings, located on levels IV-V, and their impact on the surrounding rock mass and the land surface. The analysis was based on geodetic measurements and numerical calculations for strain state of rock mass surrounding the mine workings, in actual conditions and after partial backfilling, and forecast of the rock stability factor after the end of backfilling. The assessment stability factor in the vicinity of excavations at levels IV-V was based on the results of spatial numerical analysis covering the entire central area of the mine

  4. GLOBOX : A spatially differentiated global fate, intake and effect model for toxicity assessment in LCA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wegener Sleeswijk, Anneke; Heijungs, Reinout

    GLOBOX is a model for the calculation of spatially differentiated LCA toxicity characterisation factors on a global scale. It can also be used for human and environmental risk assessment. The GLOBOX model contains equations for the calculation of fate, intake and effect factors, and equations for

  5. System for assessing Aviation's Global Emissions (SAGE), part 1 : model description and inventory results

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-07-01

    In early 2001, the US Federal Aviation Administration embarked on a multi-year effort to develop a new computer model, the System for assessing Aviation's Global Emissions (SAGE). Currently at Version 1.5, the basic use of the model has centered on t...

  6. Patient-generated subjective global assessment : Innovation from paper to digital app

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faith D. Ottery; Suzanne Kasenic; Martine J. Sealy; Susan P. DeBolt; Elizabeth Isenring; Dr Harriët Jager-Wittenaar

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), including the PG-SGA Short Form (SF, aka ‘abridged’), was originally developed in the mid 1990’s as a scored, patient self-report, paperbased instrument and has been widely validated. The PG-SGA (SF) has been used for screening,

  7. GlobWat - a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogeveen, J.; Faures, J.M.; Peiser, L.; Burke, J.; Van de Giesen, N.C.

    2015-01-01

    GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to assess water use in irrigated agriculture, the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed

  8. A Land System representation for global assessments and land-use modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.

    2012-01-01

    Current global scale land-change models used for integrated assessments and climate modeling are based on classifications of land cover. However, land-use management intensity and livestock keeping are also important aspects of land use, and are an integrated part of land systems. This article aims

  9. A global emission inventory of carbonaceous aerosol from historic records of fossil fuel and biofuel consumption for the period 1860-1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junker, C.; Liousse, C.

    2008-03-01

    Country by country emission inventories for carbonaceous aerosol for the period 1860 to 1997 have been constructed on the basis of historic fuel production, use and trade data sets published by the United Nation's Statistical Division UNSTAT (1997), Etemad et al. (1991) and Mitchell (1992, 1993, 1995). The inventories use emission factors variable over time, which have been determined according to changes in technological development. The results indicate that the industrialisation period since 1860 was accompanied by a steady increase in black carbon (BC) and primary organic carbon (POC) emissions up to 1910. The calculations show a moderate decrease of carbonaceous aerosol emissions between 1920 and 1930, followed by an increase up to 1990, the year when emissions began to decrease again. Changes in BC and POC emissions prior to the year 1950 are essentially driven by the USA, Germany and the UK. The USSR, China and India become substantial contributors to carbonaceous aerosol emissions after 1950. Emission maps have been generated with a 1°×1° resolution based on the relative population density in each country. They will provide a helpful tool for assessing the effect of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on observed climate changes of the past.

  10. Globalization of tertiary nursing education in post-Mao China: a preliminary qualitative assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Z; Xu, Y; Sun, J; Zhang, J

    2001-12-01

    This article examines China's collaborative initiatives with Western countries to assess the impact of globalization on Chinese nursing education, especially at the post-secondary level, in the post-Mao era. Through the theoretical framework of mutuality, it evaluates the outcomes of globalization in two broad domains: pedagogy and system-institution-program building. In addition, case studies on two collaborative projects between Chinese nursing programs and Western institutions were conducted to further illustrate the principles of mutuality. This qualitative assessment is primarily based on a systematic review of published studies on the multifaceted dimensions of globalization in Chinese post-secondary nursing education in both English and Chinese nursing literature since 1990. It is supplemented by unpublished documents and data obtained from a research trip to China in 2000. The study concludes that globalization has been, and will remain, one of the major forces underpinning Chinese nursing education (and the nursing profession in general), which is moving towards integration into the global nursing community. However, there is a significant imbalance in the knowledge transfer equation both in the national and international context. Great efforts need to be made to synthesize nursing knowledge in the East and West to achieve an integrative nursing science.

  11. Assessing the environmental impacts of freshwater thermal pollution from global power generation in LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raptis, Catherine E; Boucher, Justin M; Pfister, Stephan

    2017-02-15

    Freshwater heat emissions from power plants with once-through cooling systems constitute one of many environmental pressures related to the thermoelectric power industry. The objective of this work was to obtain high resolution, operational characterization factors (CF) for the impact of heat emissions on ecosystem quality, and carry out a comprehensive, spatially, temporally and technologically differentiated damage-based environmental assessment of global freshwater thermal pollution. The aggregation of CFs on a watershed level results in 12.5% lower annual impacts globally and even smaller differences for the most crucial watersheds and months, so watershed level CFs are recommended when the exact emission site within the basin is unknown. Long-range impacts account for almost 90% of the total global impacts. The Great Lakes, several Mississippi subbasins, the Danube, and the Yangtze are among the most thermally impacted watersheds globally, receiving heat emissions from predominantly coal-fuelled and nuclear power plants. Globally, over 80% of the global annual impacts come from power plants constructed during or before the 1980s. While the impact-weighted mean age of the power plants in the Mississippi ranges from 38 to 51years, in Chinese watersheds including the Yangtze, the equivalent range is only 15 to 22years, reflecting a stark contrast in thermal pollution mitigation approaches. With relatively high shares of total capacity from power plants with once-through freshwater cooling, and tracing a large part of the Danube, 1kWh of net electricity mix is the most impactful in Hungary, Bulgaria and Serbia. Monthly CFs are provided on a grid cell level and on a watershed level for use in Life Cycle Assessment. The impacts per generating unit are also provided, as part of our effort to make available a global dataset of thermoelectric power plant emissions and impacts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Assessing Lead, Nickel, and Zinc Pollution in Topsoil from a Historic Shooting Range Rehabilitated into a Public Urban Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrutia-Goyes, Ricardo; Argyraki, Ariadne; Ornelas-Soto, Nancy

    2017-06-30

    Soil contamination is a persistent problem in the world. The redevelopment of a site with a historical deposition of metals might conceal the threat of remaining pollution, especially when the site has become a public place. In this study, human health risk assessment is performed after defining the concentrations of Pb, Ni, and Zn in the topsoil of a former shooting range rehabilitated into a public park in the Municipality of Kesariani (Athens, Greece). A methodology that uses inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS, 13 samples), another that uses portable X-ray fluorescence (XRF) following a dense sample design (91 samples), and a hybrid approach that combines both, were used to obtain the concentrations of the trace elements. The enrichment factor and geoacummulation index were calculated to define the degree of pollution of the site. The hazard quotient and cancer risk indicators were also computed to find the risk to which the population is exposed. The present study reveals high non-carcinogenic health risk due to Pb pollution with ingestion as the main exposure pathway. The carcinogenic risk for Pb is within tolerable limits, but the definition of land use might alter such a statement. Lastly, regarding Ni and Zn, the site is unpolluted and there is insignificant carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks.

  13. The OPAL Project: Open source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James

    2010-05-01

    This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure has been developed to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through: 1) Overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost and technology); 2) Preliminary research, acquisition and familiarisation with all available ELE software packages; 3) Assessment of these 30+ software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4) Loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data. Keywords: OPAL, displacement-based, DBELA, earthquake loss estimation, earthquake loss assessment, open source, HAZUS

  14. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  15. Graphical Methodology of Global Pollution Index for the Environmental Impact Assessment Using Two Environmental Components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corneliu Cojocaru

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the applied methods for environmental impact assessment is the index of global pollution (IGP proposed by Rojanschi in 1991. This methodology enables the global estimation for the ecosystem state affected more or less by human activities. Unfortunately, Rojanschi’s method has a limitation; it can be applied only if at least three environmental components are considered. Frequently, many environmental impact assessment applications rely on analysis of only two environmental components. Therefore, this work aimed to develop a new graphical method to extend Rojanschi’s approach for the case of two environmental components. The proposed method avoids the average value of evaluation grades and uses only the graphical correspondence for calculation of the index of global pollution. A right-angle triangle graph methodology was proposed, where bases represented the values of evaluation grades. Thus, for the case of two environmental components, the index of global pollution was calculated as the relation between the ideal and real ecosystem states represented by the ratio between areas of external and enclosed right triangles. The developed graphical method was tested and validated for real case studies: the environmental impact assessment from a refinery located on the Romanian Black Sea Coast considering Air and Water environmental components and from a coal-fired thermoelectric power plant from Eastern Romania regarding Air and Soil environmental components. In this way, it was provided a reliable and faster tool to be used for the pollution characterization of human-derived chemicals for better decisions in risk management.

  16. Tsunami Hazard Posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and Southern New Hebrides Subduction Margins: An Assessment Based on Plate Boundary Kinematics, Interseismic Coupling, and Historical Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, William; Wallace, Laura; Wang, Xiaoming; Reyners, Martin

    2012-01-01

    We assess the tsunami hazard posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and southern New Hebrides subduction margins. Neither of these subduction zones has produced tsunami large enough to cause significant damage in New Zealand over the past 150 years of well-recorded history. However, as this time frame is short compared to the recurrence interval for major tsunamigenic earthquakes on many of the Earth's subduction zones, it should not be assumed that what has been observed so far is representative of the long term. For each of these two subduction zones we present plate kinematic and fault-locking results from block modelling of earthquake slip vector data and GPS velocities. The results are used to estimate the current rates of strain accumulation on the plate interfaces where large tsunamigenic earthquakes typically occur. We also review data on the larger historical earthquakes that have occurred on these margins, as well as the Global CMT catalogue of events since 1976. Using this information we have developed a set of scenarios for large earthquakes which have been used as initial conditions for the COMCOT tsunami code to estimate the subsequent tsunami propagation in the southwest Pacific, and from these the potential impact on New Zealand has been evaluated. Our results demonstrate that there is a significant threat posed to the Northland and Coromandel regions of New Zealand should a large earthquake ( M w ≳8.5) occur on the southern or middle regions of the Kermadec Trench, and that a similarly large earthquake on the southern New Hebrides Trench has the potential to strongly impact on the far northern parts of New Zealand close to the southern end of the submarine Three Kings Ridge. We propose logic trees for the magnitude-frequency parameters of large earthquakes originating on each trench, which are intended to form the basis for future probabilistic studies.

  17. A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land

  18. Assessment of global DNA methylation in the first trimester fetal tissues exposed to maternal cigarette smoking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fa, Svetlana; Larsen, Trine Vilsbøll; Bilde, Katrine

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: Maternal cigarette smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of negative health consequences for the exposed child. Epigenetic mechanisms constitute a likely link between the prenatal exposure to maternal cigarette smoking and the increased risk in later life for diverse pathologies...... to exposures with an epigenetic impact. We have assessed the influence of maternal cigarette smoking during the first trimester for fetal global DNA methylation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed the human fetal intestines and livers as well as the placentas from the first trimester pregnancies. Global DNA...

  19. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%–72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%–42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C–2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  20. Assessing the global phylum level diversity within the bacterial domain: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noha H. Youssef

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Microbial ecology is the study of microbes in the natural environment and their interactions with each other. Investigating the nature of microorganisms residing within a specific habitat is an extremely important component of microbial ecology. Such microbial diversity surveys aim to determine the identity, physiological preferences, metabolic capabilities, and genomic features of microbial taxa within a specific ecosystem. A comprehensive review of various aspects of microbial diversity (phylogenetic, functional, and genomic diversities in the microbial (bacterial, archaeal, and microeukaryotic world is clearly a daunting task that could not be aptly summarized in a single review. Here, we focus on one aspect of diversity (phylogenetic diversity in one microbial domain (the Bacteria. We restrict our analysis to the highest taxonomic rank (phylum and attempt to investigate the extent of global phylum level diversity within the Bacteria. We present a brief historical perspective on the subject and highlight how the adaptation of molecular biological and phylogenetic approaches has greatly expanded our view of global bacterial diversity. We also summarize recent progress toward the discovery of novel bacterial phyla, present evidences that the scope of phylum level diversity in nature has hardly been exhausted, and propose novel approaches that could greatly facilitate the discovery process of novel bacterial phyla within various ecosystems.

  1. Global Assessment of Seasonal Potential Distribution of Mediterranean Fruit Fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szyniszewska, Anna M.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) is one of the world's most economically damaging pests. It displays highly seasonal population dynamics, and the environmental conditions suitable for its abundance are not constant throughout the year in most places. An extensive literature search was performed to obtain the most comprehensive data on the historical and contemporary spatio-temporal occurrence of the pest globally. The database constructed contained 2328 unique geo-located entries on Medfly detection sites from 43 countries and nearly 500 unique localities, as well as information on hosts, life stages and capture method. Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online. Records from 1980 until present were used for medfly environmental niche modeling. Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt) and a set of seasonally varying environmental covariates were used to predict the fundamental niche of the Medfly on a global scale. Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May-August and September-December. Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species. PMID:25375649

  2. Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Sharma, Ashish

    2015-07-01

    Both drought and aridity indicate imbalance in water availability. While drought is a natural temporal hazard, aridity is a constant climatic feature. This paper investigates the changes in drought characteristics across different aridity zones with and without consideration of potential evapotranspiration (PET), as a means to better assess drought in a warming climate. Two drought indexes are employed: (1) Standardized precipitation index (SPI), which is solely based on precipitation; and (2) Reconnaissance drought index (RDI), which, in addition to precipitation, takes PET into account. The two indexes are first employed to observed precipitation and PET data for the period 1960-2009 from the CRU (Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia) TS 3.1 database. The results indicate that although all the aridity zones experience both downward and upward drought trends, no significant trend is found over large parts of the zones. However, the agreement between SPI and RDI reduces from the hyper-arid zone on one extreme toward the humid zone on the other. In the three more humid zones (i.e. semi-arid, sub-humid, and humid), the indexes exhibit different trends, with RDI showing more decreasing trends (i.e. becoming drier). While SPI generally shows more drought prone areas than RDI for the pre-1998 period, the opposite is observed for the post-1998 period. Given the known changes to PET in observed records, and also expected increases as global warming intensifies, these results suggest that RDI will be consistently different to the SPI as global warming intensifies. This hypothesis is further tested for historic and future climate projections from the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia) Mk3.6 global climate model (GCM), with use of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways). In this case, PET is calculated using FAO56-PM model for assessment of

  3. Porphyry copper assessment of the Tethys region of western and southern Asia: Chapter V in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zürcher, Lukas; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Mars, John C.; Ludington, Stephen; Zientek, Michael L.; Dunlap, Pamela; Wallis, John C.; Drew, Lawrence J.; Sutphin, David M.; Berger, Byron R.; Herrington, Richard J.; Billa, Mario; Kuşcu, Ilkay; Moon, Charles J.; Richards, Jeremy P.; Zientek, Michael L.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Johnson, Kathleen M.

    2015-11-18

    A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources in porphyry copper deposits in the Tethys region of western and southern Asia was carried out as part of a global mineral resource assessment led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The purpose of the study was to delineate geographic areas as permissive tracts for the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits at a scale of 1:1,000,000 and to provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper likely to be contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in those tracts. The team did the assessment using the USGS three-part form of mineral resource assessment, which is based on (1) mineral deposit and grade-tonnage models constructed from known deposits as analogs for undiscovered deposits, (2) delineation of permissive tracts based on geoscientific information, and (3) estimation of numbers of undiscovered deposits.

  4. How current assessments of Sustainability Performance by Best Practice in the UN Global Compact challenge legitimacy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Thomas

    the Economist (2013) turn to Scandinavia as having the solutions to some of the global sustainability-related challenges, it might also be worth reversing the optics. One approach could be to take a closer look at whether this high level of support for the UNGC translates to a high level of Sustainability...... Performance? And how the current assessment of Sustainability Performance by Best Practice in the UN Global Compact challenge the legitimacy of both the corporation, the UNGC and governments attempting to facilitate sustainability and CSR engagement? Best Practice is a concept frequently used by authorities......The Scandinavian countries have been strong supporters of the UN Global Compact (UNGC) since the official launch in year 2000. This is best evidenced by the level of adoption of the UNGC, which is the most widely adopted broad sustainability-reporting standard in Scandinavia (Kjaergaard, submitted...

  5. Assessment of global DNA methylation in the first trimester fetal tissues exposed to maternal cigarette smoking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fa, Svetlana; Larsen, Trine Vilsbøll; Bilde, Katrine

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: Maternal cigarette smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of negative health consequences for the exposed child. Epigenetic mechanisms constitute a likely link between the prenatal exposure to maternal cigarette smoking and the increased risk in later life for diverse pathologies...... to exposures with an epigenetic impact. We have assessed the influence of maternal cigarette smoking during the first trimester for fetal global DNA methylation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed the human fetal intestines and livers as well as the placentas from the first trimester pregnancies. Global DNA...... changes in exposure responses to the first trimester maternal cigarette smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Acknowledging that only examining subsets of global DNA methylation markers and fetal sample availability represents possible limitations for the analyses, our presented results indicate that the first trimester...

  6. Historical bottle temperature and salinity data collected globally by multiple platforms from 1868 to 1959, submitted by the German Data Center (BSH) (NODC Accession 0071062)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Historical bottle temperature and salinity data from the German data center, Bundesamt fur Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH) in Hamburg. The data contain...

  7. Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software (OPAL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, J. E.

    2011-07-01

    This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure was created to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through: 1. overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost, and technology); 2. preliminary research, acquisition, and familiarisation for available ELE software packages; 3. assessment of these software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4. loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw = 7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment, Crowley et al., 2006), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States, FEMA, USA, 2003) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach, Lindholm et al., 2007) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic, and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data.

  8. Global and segmental myocardial deformation by 2D speckle tracking compared to visual assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Ashraf M

    2012-12-26

    To examine the feasibility and reliability of measuring global and segmental longitudinal strain (LS) compared to visual assessment of wall motion (WM). Assessment of segmental (17 left ventricular segments) LS using automatic function imaging (AFI) in 55 patients (60.0 ± 8.7 years, 73% male) divided into 2 groups: group I included 35 patients with WM abnormalities and/or impaired ejection fraction and group II included 20 patients with normal WM and ejection fraction. Visual analysis of WM abnormalities was performed using 2-dimensional echocardiography (2DE) and WM score was calculated. Both modalities were analyzed by one expert reader at 2 different sessions. Analysis of 935 left ventricular segments was completed in 94.1% and 96.3% by visual assessment and AFI, respectively. There was a strong positive linear relationship between the WM score and global LS in all patients. Intra-observer agreement for calculation of WM score was excellent for group I patients (kappa: 0.97) and very good for group II patients (kappa: 0.92). Intra-observer agreement for AFI showed excellent agreement with very small mean difference in both group I and II (-0.0 ± 2.3 and -0.0 ± 1.9, respectively). The interpretation of global and segmental LS using AFI is a more feasible and reliable technique for the quantification of myocardial deformation than visual assessment of WM scores.

  9. A Land System representation for global assessments and land-use modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H

    2012-10-01

    Current global scale land-change models used for integrated assessments and climate modeling are based on classifications of land cover. However, land-use management intensity and livestock keeping are also important aspects of land use, and are an integrated part of land systems. This article aims to classify, map, and to characterize Land Systems (LS) at a global scale and analyze the spatial determinants of these systems. Besides proposing such a classification, the article tests if global assessments can be based on globally uniform allocation rules. Land cover, livestock, and agricultural intensity data are used to map LS using a hierarchical classification method. Logistic regressions are used to analyze variation in spatial determinants of LS. The analysis of the spatial determinants of LS indicates strong associations between LS and a range of socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of human-environment interactions. The set of identified spatial determinants of a LS differs among regions and scales, especially for (mosaic) cropland systems, grassland systems with livestock, and settlements. (Semi-)Natural LS have more similar spatial determinants across regions and scales. Using LS in global models is expected to result in a more accurate representation of land use capturing important aspects of land systems and land architecture: the variation in land cover and the link between land-use intensity and landscape composition. Because the set of most important spatial determinants of LS varies among regions and scales, land-change models that include the human drivers of land change are best parameterized at sub-global level, where similar biophysical, socioeconomic and cultural conditions prevail in the specific regions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Architectural/historical assessment of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge Reservation, Anderson and Roane Counties, Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carver, M.; Slater, M.

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is required by the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) of 1966, as amended, to identify any properties under its jurisdiction that are included in or eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places (National Register). In March 1993 Duvall & Associates, Inc., was engaged to survey the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), a DOE facility located on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in Anderson and Roane Counties, Tennessee, and to prepare a determination of National Register eligibility for all ORNL properties. The purpose of this report is to summarize the results of research into the historical context of ORNL and at to identify historic properties at ORNL that are included in present or eligible for inclusion in the National Register. The identification of archaeological properties at ORNL that are included and eligible for inclusion in the National Register Clinton is addressed in a separate report.

  11. Assessment of historical polymers using attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infra-red spectroscopy with principal component analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mitchell, Gemma; France, Fenella; Nordon, Alison; Tang, Pik Leung; Gibson, Lorraine T

    2013-01-01

    Attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy with a diamond ATR crystal was used to examine 41 historical polymer fragments and a selection of polyurethane fragments subjected to accelerated ageing...

  12. A Globally Consistent Methodology for an Exposure Model for Natural Catastrophe Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Pandey, Bishwa; Saito, Keiko

    2013-04-01

    There is a high demand for the development of a globally consistent and robust exposure data model employing a top down approach, to be used in national level catastrophic risk profiling for the public sector liability. To this effect, there are currently several initiatives such as UN-ISDR Global Assessment Report (GAR) and Global Exposure Database for Global Earthquake Model (GED4GEM). However, the consistency and granularity differs from region to region, a problem that is overcome in this proposed approach using national datasets for example in Latin America and the Caribbean Region (LCR). The methodology proposed in this paper aim to produce a global open exposure dataset based upon population, country specific building type distribution and other global/economic indicators such as World Bank indices that are suitable for natural catastrophe risk modelling purposes. The output would be a GIS raster grid at approximately 1 km spatial resolution which would highlight urbaness (building typology distribution, occupancy and use) for each cell at sub national level and compatible with other global initiatives and datasets. It would make use of datasets on population, census, demographic, building data and land use/land cover which are largely available in the public domain. The resultant exposure dataset could be used in conjunction with hazard and vulnerability components to create views of risk for multiple hazards that include earthquake, flood and windstorms. The model we hope would also assist in steps towards future initiatives for open, interchangeable and compatible databases for catastrophe risk modelling. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

  13. Invited review: A position on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, M J; Vellinga, T; Opio, C; Falcucci, A; Tempio, G; Henderson, B; Makkar, H; Mottet, A; Robinson, T; Steinfeld, H; Gerber, P J

    2018-02-01

    The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.

  14. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  15. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We

  16. Cluster Detection Tests in Spatial Epidemiology: A Global Indicator for Performance Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guttmann, Aline; Li, Xinran; Feschet, Fabien; Gaudart, Jean; Demongeot, Jacques; Boire, Jean-Yves; Ouchchane, Lemlih

    2015-01-01

    In cluster detection of disease, the use of local cluster detection tests (CDTs) is current. These methods aim both at locating likely clusters and testing for their statistical significance. New or improved CDTs are regularly proposed to epidemiologists and must be subjected to performance assessment. Because location accuracy has to be considered, performance assessment goes beyond the raw estimation of type I or II errors. As no consensus exists for performance evaluations, heterogeneous methods are used, and therefore studies are rarely comparable. A global indicator of performance, which assesses both spatial accuracy and usual power, would facilitate the exploration of CDTs behaviour and help between-studies comparisons. The Tanimoto coefficient (TC) is a well-known measure of similarity that can assess location accuracy but only for one detected cluster. In a simulation study, performance is measured for many tests. From the TC, we here propose two statistics, the averaged TC and the cumulated TC, as indicators able to provide a global overview of CDTs performance for both usual power and location accuracy. We evidence the properties of these two indicators and the superiority of the cumulated TC to assess performance. We tested these indicators to conduct a systematic spatial assessment displayed through performance maps.

  17. Assessing water resources in Azerbaijan using a local distributed model forced and constrained with global data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouaziz, Laurène; Hegnauer, Mark; Schellekens, Jaap; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; ten Velden, Corine

    2017-04-01

    In many countries, data is scarce, incomplete and often not easily shared. In these cases, global satellite and reanalysis data provide an alternative to assess water resources. To assess water resources in Azerbaijan, a completely distributed and physically based hydrological wflow-sbm model was set-up for the entire Kura basin. We used SRTM elevation data, a locally available river map and one from OpenStreetMap to derive the drainage direction network at the model resolution of approximately 1x1 km. OpenStreetMap data was also used to derive the fraction of paved area per cell to account for the reduced infiltration capacity (c.f. Schellekens et al. 2014). We used the results of a global study to derive root zone capacity based on climate data (Wang-Erlandsson et al., 2016). To account for the variation in vegetation cover over the year, monthly averages of Leaf Area Index, based on MODIS data, were used. For the soil-related parameters, we used global estimates as provided by Dai et al. (2013). This enabled the rapid derivation of a first estimate of parameter values for our hydrological model. Digitized local meteorological observations were scarce and available only for limited time period. Therefore several sources of global meteorological data were evaluated: (1) EU-WATCH global precipitation, temperature and derived potential evaporation for the period 1958-2001 (Harding et al., 2011), (2) WFDEI precipitation, temperature and derived potential evaporation for the period 1979-2014 (by Weedon et al., 2014), (3) MSWEP precipitation (Beck et al., 2016) and (4) local precipitation data from more than 200 stations in the Kura basin were available from the NOAA website for a period up to 1991. The latter, together with data archives from Azerbaijan, were used as a benchmark to evaluate the global precipitation datasets for the overlapping period 1958-1991. By comparing the datasets, we found that monthly mean precipitation of EU-WATCH and WFDEI coincided well

  18. Assessing Health Impacts within Environmental Impact Assessments: An Opportunity for Public Health Globally Which Must Not Remain Missed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Harris

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Within the member states of the United Nations 190 of 193 have regulated Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA which is a systematic process to prevent and mitigate the potential environmental impacts of industry development projects before these occur. However, the routine and comprehensive assessment of health impacts within EIAs remains underdeveloped. Focusing, as an example, on the risks to global health from the global shift in the mining industry towards Low and Middle Income Countries LMIC, this viewpoint details why connecting with EIA is an essential task for the health system. Although existing knowledge is out of date in relation to global practice we identify how health has been included, to some extent, in High Income Country EIAs and the institutional requirements for doing so. Using arguments identified by industry themselves about requiring a ‘social license to operate’, we conclude that EIA regulations provide the best current mechanism to ensure health protection is a core aspect in the decision making process  to approve projects.

  19. Assessing Health Impacts within Environmental Impact Assessments: An Opportunity for Public Health Globally Which Must Not Remain Missed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Patrick; Viliani, Francesca; Spickett, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Within the member states of the United Nations 190 of 193 have regulated Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) which is a systematic process to prevent and mitigate the potential environmental impacts of industry development projects before these occur. However, the routine and comprehensive assessment of health impacts within EIAs remains underdeveloped. Focusing, as an example, on the risks to global health from the global shift in the mining industry towards Low and Middle Income Countries LMIC), this viewpoint details why connecting with EIA is an essential task for the health system. Although existing knowledge is out of date in relation to global practice we identify how health has been included, to some extent, in High Income Country EIAs and the institutional requirements for doing so. Using arguments identified by industry themselves about requiring a ‘social license to operate’, we conclude that EIA regulations provide the best current mechanism to ensure health protection is a core aspect in the decision making process to approve projects. PMID:25608592

  20. Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

  1. Global land-use allocation model linked to an integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Ito, Akihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2017-02-15

    We developed a global land-use allocation model that can be linked to integrated assessment models (IAMs) with a coarser spatial resolution. Using the model, we performed a downscaling of the IAMs' regional aggregated land-use projections to obtain a spatial land-use distribution, which could subsequently be used by Earth system models for global environmental assessments of ecosystem services, food security, and climate policies. Here we describe the land-use allocation model, discuss the verification of the downscaling technique, and explain the influences of the downscaling on estimates of land-use carbon emissions. A comparison of the emissions estimated with and without downscaling suggested that the land-use downscaling would help capture the spatial distribution of carbon stock density and regional heterogeneity of carbon emissions caused by cropland and pasture land expansion. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Dead shrimp blues: a global assessment of extinction risk in freshwater shrimps (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sammy De Grave

    Full Text Available We present the first global assessment of extinction risk for a major group of freshwater invertebrates, caridean shrimps. The risk of extinction for all 763 species was assessed using the IUCN Red List criteria that include geographic ranges, habitats, ecology and past and present threats. The Indo-Malayan region holds over half of global species diversity, with a peak in Indo-China and southern China. Shrimps primarily inhabit flowing water; however, a significant subterranean component is present, which is more threatened than the surface fauna. Two species are extinct with a further 10 possibly extinct, and almost one third of species are either threatened or Near Threatened (NT. Threats to freshwater shrimps include agricultural and urban pollution impact over two-thirds of threatened and NT species. Invasive species and climate change have the greatest overall impact of all threats (based on combined timing, scope and severity of threats.

  3. Microstructural Developments Leading to New Advanced High Strength Sheet Steels: A Historical Assessment of Critical Metallographic Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matlock, David K [CSM/ASPPRC; Thomas, Larrin S [CSM/ASPPRC; Taylor, Mark D [CSM/ASPPRC; De Moor, Emmanuel [CSM/ASPPRC; Speer, John G [CSM/ASPPRC

    2015-08-03

    In the past 30+ years significant advancements have been made in the development of higher strength sheet steels with improved combinations of strength and ductility that have enabled important product improvements leading to safer, lighter weight, and more fuel efficient automobiles and in other applications. Properties of the primarily low carbon, low alloy steels are derived through careful control of time-temperature processing histories designed to produce multiphase ferritic based microstructures that include martensite and other constituents including retained austenite. The basis for these developments stems from the early work on dual-phase steels which was the subject of much interest. In response to industry needs, dual-phase steels have evolved as a unique class of advanced high strength sheet steels (AHSS) in which the thermal and mechanical processing histories have been specifically designed to produce constituent combinations for the purpose of simultaneously controlling strength and deformation behavior, i.e. stress-strain curve shapes. Improvements continue as enhanced dual-phase steels have recently been produced with finer microstructures, higher strengths, and better overall formability. Today, dual phase steels are the primary AHSS products used in vehicle manufacture, and several companies have indicated that the steels will remain as important design materials well into the future. In this presentation, fundamental results from the early work on dual-phase steels will be reviewed and assessed in light of recent steel developments. Specific contributions from industry/university cooperative research leading to product improvements will be highlighted. The historical perspective provided in the evolution of dual-phase steels represents a case-study that provides important framework and lessons to be incorporated in next generation AHSS products.

  4. Assessments in the Global Peace Operations Initiative: A Systems Engineering Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    police unit GCC GPOI Coordination Committee GIG GPOI Implementation Guide GPOI Global Peace Operations Initiative GRC GPOI Regional Committee G8...degree necessary to build a coherent assessments framework. The GPOI Implementation Guide ( GIG ) begins by alluding to what the program intended to...elements and associated interactions fully observed and understood. Using the U.S. economy as an example, Driscoll (2011) illustrates the common

  5. Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

    2015-10-01

    Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (systems at the national scale.

  6. Comprehensive assessment of heavy metal pollution in topsoil of historical urban park on an example of the Planty Park in Krakow (Poland).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gąsiorek, Michał; Kowalska, Joanna; Mazurek, Ryszard; Pająk, Marek

    2017-07-01

    The Historic Centre of Krakow is on the UNESCO World Heritage List and includes the Main Market Square, which is surrounded by the historical Planty Park. Soils in the Planty Park are an example of a green area in an urban environment that is particularly exposed to heavy metal-rich pollution. To assess the relative content of heavy metals and evaluate the sources of the contamination, pollution indices were used: Enrichment Factor (EF), Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo), Nemerow Pollution Index (PINemerow), Potential Ecological Risk (RI), and Contamination Security Index (CSI). Pollution indices were calculated on the base of both reference and local geochemical backgrounds. Sources of heavy metals in soils of Planty Park are related to its historic role as a metallurgy centre, as well as the more recent urban and industrial development of Krakow centre and neighbouring areas. It is concluded that increased accumulation of heavy metals is an effect of growing numbers of emission sources. The variation of each element may not unambiguously reflect the natural or anthropogenic effect on the Planty Park soil cover. In general, the present and historical emission of pollutants and heavy metal-rich contamination has led to a mixed origin of Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Moreover, it can be assumed that the content of Cr and Ni is derived from natural sources. Furthermore, a comparison of the quality of the Planty Park topsoil with the heavy metal content assessment in other urban parks in the world has been presented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Perspectives of widely scalable exposure models for multi-hazard global risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Haas, Michael; Wieland, Marc

    2017-04-01

    Less than 5% of eart&hacute;s surface is urbanized, and currently hosts around 7.5 billion people, with these figures constantly changing as increasingly faster urbanization takes place. A significant percentage of this population, often in economically developing countries, is exposed to different natural hazards which contribute to further raise the bar on the expected economic and social consequences. Global initiatives such as GAR 15 advocate for a wide scale, possibly global perspective on the assessment of risk arising from natural hazards, as a way to increase the risk-awareness of decision-makers and stakeholders, and to better harmonize large-scale prevention and mitigation actions. Realizing, and even more importantly maintaining a widely-scalable exposure model suited for the assessment of different natural risks would allow large-scale quantitative risk and loss assessment in a more efficient and reliable way. Considering its complexity and extent, such a task is undoubtedly a challenging one, spanning across multiple disciplines and operational contexts. On the other hand, with a careful design and an efficient and scalable implementation such endeavour would be well within reach and would contribute to significantly improve our understanding of the mechanisms lying behind what we call natural catastrophes. In this contribution we'll review existing relevant applications, will discuss how to tackle the most critical issues and will outline a road map for the implementation of global-scoped exposure models.

  8. Considering time in LCA: dynamic LCA and its application to global warming impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levasseur, Annie; Lesage, Pascal; Margni, Manuele; Deschênes, Louise; Samson, Réjean

    2010-04-15

    The lack of temporal information is an important limitation of life cycle assessment (LCA). A dynamic LCA approach is proposed to improve the accuracy of LCA by addressing the inconsistency of temporal assessment. This approach consists of first computing a dynamic life cycle inventory (LCI), considering the temporal profile of emissions. Then, time-dependent characterization factors are calculated to assess the dynamic LCI in real-time impact scores for any given time horizon. Although generally applicable to any impact category, this approach is developed here for global warming, based on the radiative forcing concept. This case study demonstrates that the use of global warming potentials for a given time horizon to characterize greenhouse gas emissions leads to an inconsistency between the time frame chosen for the analysis and the time period covered by the LCA results. Dynamic LCA is applied to the US EPA LCA on renewable fuels, which compares the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of different biofuels with fossil fuels including land-use change emissions. The comparison of the results obtained with both traditional and dynamic LCA approaches shows that the difference can be important enough to change the conclusions on whether or not a biofuel meets some given global warming reduction targets.

  9. Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creutzig, Felix; Corbera, Esteve; Bolwig, Simon

    2013-01-01

    Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallholder livelihoods....... However, a rapidly developing body of social science literature is advancing the understanding of these interactions. In this letter we link human geography research on the interaction between biofuel crops and livelihoods in developing countries to integrated assessments on biofuels. We review case...

  10. Subjective global assessment of nutritional status – A systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva Fink, Jaqueline; Daniel de Mello, Paula; Daniel de Mello, Elza

    2015-10-01

    Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) is a nutritional assessment tool widely used in hospital clinical practice, even though it is not exempted of limitations in relation to its use. This systematic review intended to update knowledge on the performance of SGA as a method for the assessment of the nutritional status of hospitalized adults. PubMed data base was consulted, using the search term "subjective global assessment". Studies published in English, Portuguese or Spanish, between 2002 and 2012 were selected, excluding those not found in full, letters to the editor, pilot studies, narrative reviews, studies with n research with non-hospitalized populations or those which used a modified version of the SGA. Of 454 eligible studies, 110 presented eligibility criteria. After applying the exclusion criteria, 21 studies were selected, 6 with surgical patients, 7 with clinical patients, and 8 with both. Most studies demonstrated SGA performance similar or better than the usual assessment methods for nutritional status, such as anthropometry and laboratory data, but the same result was not found when comparing SGA and nutritional screening methods. Recently published literature demonstrates SGA as a valid tool for the nutritional diagnosis of hospitalized clinical and surgical patients, and point to a potential superiority of nutritional screening methods in the early detection of malnutrition. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  11. A new global dataset with extreme sea levels and its application for assessing flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Extreme sea levels, caused by storm surges and high tides, can have devastating societal impacts. The global coastal population is faced with an increasing trend in flood risk, induced by socio-economic development and climate change. Without action, the increasing trends in flood hazard and exposure will be associated with catastrophic flood losses in the future. The adequate allocation of global investments in adaptation requires an accurate understanding of the current and future coastal flood risk on a global-scale. Here we present the first global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels (GTSR dataset) based on dynamical modelling. GTSR covers the entire world's coastline and consists of time series of tides and surges and estimates of extreme values for various return periods. The dataset is based on two different hydrodynamic models: FES2012 for modelling tides, and GSTM for modelling storm surges. GSTM is forced by meteorological fields from ERA-Interim to simulate storm surges for the period 1979-2014. Validation showed that there is very good agreement between modelled and observed sea levels. Only in regions prone to tropical cyclones, extreme sea levels are severely underestimated due to the limited resolution of the meteorological forcing. This will be resolved for future updates of GTSR. As a first application of GSTR, we estimate that 99 million people are exposed to a 1 in 100 year flood. This is almost 40% lower than estimates based the DIVA dataset, another global dataset of extreme sea level. We foresee other applications in assessing impacts of climate change and risk management, such as assessing changes in storminess, estimating the impacts of sea level, and providing warning levels to operational models.

  12. Global assessment of shipping emissions in 2015 on a high spatial and temporal resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Lasse; Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka; Kukkonen, Jaakko

    2017-10-01

    We present a comprehensive global shipping emission inventory and the global activities of ships for the year 2015. The emissions were evaluated using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM3), which uses Automatic Identification System data to describe the traffic activities of ships. We have improved the model regarding (i) the evaluation of the missing technical specifications of ships, and (ii) the treatment of shipping activities in case of sparse satellite AIS-data. We have developed a model for the collection and processing of available information on the technical specifications, using data assimilation techniques. We have also developed a path regeneration model that constructs, whenever necessary, the detailed geometry of the ship routes. The presented results for fuel consumption were qualitatively in agreement both with those in the 3rd Greenhouse Gas Study of the International Maritime Organisation and those reported by the International Energy Agency. We have also presented high-resolution global spatial distributions of the shipping emissions of NOx, CO2, SO2 and PM2.5. The emissions were also analysed in terms of selected sea areas, ship categories, the sizes of ships and flag states. The emission datasets provided by this study are available upon request; the datasets produced by the model can be utilized as input data for air quality modelling on a global scale, including the full temporal and spatial variation of shipping emissions for the first time. Dispersion modelling using this inventory as input can be used to assess the impacts of various emission abatement scenarios. The emission computation methods presented in this paper could also be used, e.g., to provide annual updates of the global ship emissions.

  13. An integration of historical records and genetic data to the assessment of global distribution and population structure in Octopus vulgaris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele eDe Luca

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The common octopus (Octopus vulgaris Cuvier, 1797 is one of the most widely distributed species belonging to the genus Octopus as well as an important commercially harvested species and a model organism for behavioral biology of invertebrates. It has been described for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea but it is considered a cosmopolitan species inhabiting the temperate and tropical sea of the northern and southern hemispheres. In the last few years, several species previously considered as O. vulgaris have been recognized as new species, limiting the distributional range of vulgaris and reinforcing the thesis of a species complex. Where it is an important fishery resource, numerous studies have been conducted in order to define its genetic structure with the purpose of managing different stocks. However, many locations are still poorly investigated from this point of view and others are under taxonomic revision to exclude or confirm its occurrence. Here we provide a summary of the current status of knowledge on distribution and genetic structure in this species in the different oceanic regions.

  14. Assessments of global drivers of vaccine hesitancy in 2014-Looking beyond safety concerns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Marti

    Full Text Available Vaccine hesitancy has become the focus of growing attention and concern globally despite overwhelming evidence of the value of vaccines in preventing disease and saving the lives of millions of individuals every year. Measuring vaccine hesitancy and its determinants worldwide is important in order to understand the scope of the problem and for the development of evidence-based targeted strategies to reduce hesitancy. Two indicators to assess vaccine hesitancy were developed to capture its nature and scope at the national and subnational level to collect data in 2014: 1 The top 3 reasons for not accepting vaccines according to the national schedule in the past year and whether the response was opinion- or assessment-based and 2 Whether an assessment (or measurement of the level of confidence in vaccination had taken place at national or subnational level in the previous 5 years. The most frequently cited reasons for vaccine hesitancy globally related to (1 the risk-benefit of vaccines, (2 knowledge and awareness issues, (3 religious, cultural, gender or socio-economic factors. Major issues were fear of side effects, distrust in vaccination and lack of information on immunization or immunization services. The analysis revealed that 29% of all countries had done an assessment of the level of confidence in their country, suggesting that vaccine confidence was an issue of importance. Monitoring vaccine hesitancy is critical because of its influence on the success of immunization programs. To our knowledge, the proposed indicators provide the first global snapshot of reasons driving vaccine hesitancy and depicting its widespread nature, as well as the extent of assessments conducted by countries.

  15. Assessments of global drivers of vaccine hesitancy in 2014-Looking beyond safety concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Melanie; de Cola, Monica; MacDonald, Noni E; Dumolard, Laure; Duclos, Philippe

    2017-01-01

    Vaccine hesitancy has become the focus of growing attention and concern globally despite overwhelming evidence of the value of vaccines in preventing disease and saving the lives of millions of individuals every year. Measuring vaccine hesitancy and its determinants worldwide is important in order to understand the scope of the problem and for the development of evidence-based targeted strategies to reduce hesitancy. Two indicators to assess vaccine hesitancy were developed to capture its nature and scope at the national and subnational level to collect data in 2014: 1) The top 3 reasons for not accepting vaccines according to the national schedule in the past year and whether the response was opinion- or assessment-based and 2) Whether an assessment (or measurement) of the level of confidence in vaccination had taken place at national or subnational level in the previous 5 years. The most frequently cited reasons for vaccine hesitancy globally related to (1) the risk-benefit of vaccines, (2) knowledge and awareness issues, (3) religious, cultural, gender or socio-economic factors. Major issues were fear of side effects, distrust in vaccination and lack of information on immunization or immunization services. The analysis revealed that 29% of all countries had done an assessment of the level of confidence in their country, suggesting that vaccine confidence was an issue of importance. Monitoring vaccine hesitancy is critical because of its influence on the success of immunization programs. To our knowledge, the proposed indicators provide the first global snapshot of reasons driving vaccine hesitancy and depicting its widespread nature, as well as the extent of assessments conducted by countries.

  16. Are Local Food Chains More Sustainable than Global Food Chains? Considerations for Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianluca Brunori

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the main findings of the GLAMUR project which starts with an apparently simple question: is “local” more sustainable than “global”? Sustainability assessment is framed within a post-normal science perspective, advocating the integration of public deliberation and scientific research. The assessment spans 39 local, intermediate and global supply chain case studies across different commodities and countries. Assessment criteria cover environmental, economic, social, health and ethical sustainability dimensions. A closer view of the food system demonstrates a highly dynamic local–global continuum where actors, while adapting to a changing environment, establish multiple relations and animate several chain configurations. The evidence suggests caution when comparing “local” and “global” chains, especially when using the outcomes of the comparison in decision-making. Supply chains are analytical constructs that necessarily—and arbitrarily—are confined by system boundaries, isolating a set of elements from an interconnected whole. Even consolidated approaches, such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA, assess only a part of sustainability attributes, and the interpretation may be controversial. Many sustainability attributes are not yet measurable and “hard” methodologies need to be complemented by “soft” methodologies which are at least able to identify critical issues and trade-offs. Aware of these limitations, our research shows that comparing local and global chains, with the necessary caution, can help overcome a priori positions that so far have characterized the debate between “localists” and “globalists”. At firm level, comparison between “local” and “global” chains could be useful to identify best practices, benchmarks, critical points, and errors to avoid. As sustainability is not a status to achieve, but a never-ending process, comparison and deliberation can be the basis of a

  17. Automatic vs semi-automatic global cardiac function assessment using 64-row CT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greupner, J; Zimmermann, E; Hamm, B; Dewey, M

    2012-01-01

    Objective Global cardiac function assessment using multidetector CT (MDCT) is time-consuming. Therefore we sought to compare an automatic software tool with an established semi-automatic method. Methods A total of 36 patients underwent CT with 64×0.5 mm detector collimation, and global left ventricular function was subsequently assessed by two independent blinded readers using both an automatic region-growing-based software tool (with and without manual adjustment) and an established semi-automatic software tool. We also analysed automatic motion mapping to identify end-systole. Results The time needed for assessment using the semi-automatic approach (12:12±6:19 min) was reduced by 75–85% with the automatic software tool (unadjusted, 01:34±0:29 min, adjusted, 02:53±1:19 min; both pautomatic (58.6±14.9%) and the semi-automatic (58.0±15.3%) approaches. Also the manually adjusted automatic approach led to significantly smaller limits of agreement than the unadjusted automatic approach for end-diastolic volume (±36.4 ml vs ±58.5 ml, p>0.05). Using motion mapping to automatically identify end-systole reduced analysis time by 95% compared with the semi-automatic approach, but showed inferior precision for EF and end-systolic volume. Conclusion Automatic function assessment using MDCT with manual adjustment shows good agreement with an established semi-automatic approach, while reducing the analysis by 75% to less than 3 min. This suggests that automatic CT function assessment with manual correction may be used for fast, comfortable and reliable evaluation of global left ventricular function. PMID:22045953

  18. Avaliação nutricional subjetiva global em pacientes cardiopatas Subjective global assessment of nutritional status in cardiac patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurea Kaoru Yamauti

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Analisar a Avaliação Nutricional Subjetiva Global (ANSG para o diagnóstico de desnutrição em pacientes cardiopatas. MÉTODOS: Em 106 pacientes hospitalizados (53 com insuficiência cardíaca, aplicou-se o questionário de ANSG com histórico nutricional (peso, dieta, sintomas gastrointestinais, capacidade funcional física e diagnóstico e exame físico. Depois aferiram-se medidas antropométricas (peso, circunferência do braço, prega cutânea triciptal e circunferência muscular do braço. Para a avaliação objetiva dos pacientes com insuficiência cardíaca consideraram-se albumina sérica, contagem de linfócitos e antropometria. A curva ROC analisou sensibilidade, especificidade e acurácia da ANSG em relação à avaliação objetiva. RESULTADOS: A idade dos pacientes era de 57,7 ± 15,7 anos, e a maioria era de homens (67,9%. A curva ROC indicou o escore 16 como ponto de corte da ANSG com maior sensibilidade (62,2% e especificidade (55,7%. A área sob a curva foi de 0,601 (IC 95%: 0,487 - 0,715. A prevalência de desnutrição foi de 51,9% pela ANSG e 42,5% pela avaliação antropométrica, com acurácia de 65,3% nos homens e 44,1% nas mulheres. Nos pacientes com insuficiência cardíaca, a prevalência de desnutrição foi de 60,4% pela ANSG e 32,1% pela avaliação objetiva, com acurácia de 67,6% nos homens e 31,3% nas mulheres. CONCLUSÃO: A ANSG identificou maior número de desnutridos do que a avaliação objetiva. O desempenho da ANSG na identificação de desnutrição foi maior nos homens. A ANSG detectou pacientes cardiopatas com risco nutricional.OBJECTIVE: To analyze the performance of Subjective Global Assessment of Nutritional Status (SGA in diagnosing malnutrition in patients with heart disease. METHODS: One hundred and six hospitalized patients (53 with heart failure completed an SGA questionnaire on their nutritional history (changes in body weight, dietary intake, gastrointestinal symptoms, functional

  19. Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creutzig, Felix; Corbera, Esteve; Bolwig, Simon; Hunsberger, Carol

    2013-09-01

    Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallholder livelihoods that these models do not consider. Maintaining and enhancing robust livelihoods upon bioenergy deployment is an equally important sustainability goal that warrants greater attention. The social implications of biofuel production are complex, varied and place-specific, difficult to model, operationalize and quantify. However, a rapidly developing body of social science literature is advancing the understanding of these interactions. In this letter we link human geography research on the interaction between biofuel crops and livelihoods in developing countries to integrated assessments on biofuels. We review case-study research focused on first-generation biofuel crops to demonstrate that food, income, land and other assets such as health are key livelihood dimensions that can be impacted by such crops and we highlight how place-specific and global dynamics influence both aggregate and distributional outcomes across these livelihood dimensions. We argue that place-specific production models and land tenure regimes mediate livelihood outcomes, which are also in turn affected by global and regional markets and their resulting equilibrium dynamics. The place-specific perspective suggests that distributional consequences are a crucial complement to aggregate outcomes; this has not been given enough weight in comprehensive assessments to date. By narrowing the gap between place-specific case studies and global models, our discussion offers a route towards integrating livelihood and equity considerations into scenarios of future bioenergy deployment, thus contributing to a key challenge in sustainability sciences.

  20. Concept Mapping to Assess Learning and Understanding of Complexity in Courses on Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebich-Hespanha, S.; Gautier, C.

    2010-12-01

    The complex nature of climate change science poses special challenges for educators wishing to broaden and deepen student understanding of the climate system and its sensitivity to and impacts upon human activity. Learners have prior knowledge that may limit their perception and processing of the multiple relationships between processes (e.g., feedbacks) that arise in global change science, and these existing mental models serve as the scaffold for all future learning. Because adoption of complex scientific concepts is not likely if instruction includes presentation of information or concepts that are not compatible with the learners’ prior knowledge, providing effective instruction on this complex topic requires learning opportunities that are anchored upon an evaluation of the limitations and inaccuracies of the learners’ existing understandings of the climate system. The formative evaluation that serves as the basis for planning such instruction can also be useful as a baseline against which to evaluate subsequent learning. We will present concept-mapping activities that we have used to assess students’ knowledge and understanding about global climate change in courses that utilized multiple assessment methods including presentations, writings, discussions, and concept maps. The courses in which these activities were completed use a variety of instructional approaches (including standard lectures and lab assignments and a mock summit) to help students understand the inherently interdisciplinary topic of global climate change, its interwoven human and natural causes, and the connections it has with society through a complex range of political, social, technological and economic factors. Two instances of concept map assessment will be presented: one focused on evaluating student understanding of the major components of the climate system and their interconnections, and the other focused on student understanding of the connections between climate change and

  1. An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hettinger, Dylan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.

  2. Assessment and self-assessment of the pharmacists' competencies using the global competency framework (GbCF in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojkov Svetlana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Pharmacists' competence represents a dynamic framework of knowledge, skills and abilities to carry out tasks, and it reflects on improving the quality of life and on patients’ health. One of the documents for the Evaluation and Competency Development of Pharmacists is the Global Competency Framework (GbCF. The aim of this study was to implement the GBCF document into Serbian pharmacies, to perform assessment and self assessment of the competencies. Methods. The assessment and self-assessment of pharmacists’ competencies were performed during the period 2012−13 year in eight community pharmacy chains, in seven cities in Serbia. For assessment and self-assessment of pharmacists competencies the GbCF model was applied, which was adjusted to pharmaceutical practice and legislation in Serbia. External assessment was conducted by teams of pharmacists using the structured observation of the work of pharmacists during regular working hours. Evaluated pharmacists filled out the questionnaire about demographic indicators about the pharmacist and the pharmacy where they work. Results. A total of 123 pharmacists were evaluated. Pharmacists’ Professional Competency Cluster (KK1 had the lowest score (average value 2.98, while the cluster Management and Organizational Competency (KK2 had the highest score (average value 3.15. The competence Recognition of the Diagnosis and Patient Counseling (K8, which belonged to the cluster KK1, had the lowest score (average value for assessment and self-assessment were 2.09, and 2.34, respectively among the all evaluated competencies. Conclusion. GbCF might be considered as an instrument for the competencies' evaluation/selfevaluation and their improvement, accordingly.

  3. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change: lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-04-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada—the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a "family of integrators" into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies.

  4. High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gernaat, David E. H. J.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Biemans, Hester; Niessink, Robin

    2017-10-01

    Hydropower is the most important renewable energy source to date, providing over 72% of all renewable electricity globally. Yet, only limited information is available on the global potential supply of hydropower and the associated costs. Here we provide a high-resolution assessment of the technical and economic potential of hydropower at a near-global scale. Using 15"×15" discharge and 3"×3" digital elevation maps, we built virtual hydropower installations at >3.8 million sites across the globe and calculated their potential using cost optimization methods. This way we identified over 60,000 suitable sites, which together represent a remaining global potential of 9.49 PWh yr-1 below US0.50 kWh-1. The largest remaining potential is found in Asia Pacific (39%), South America (25%) and Africa (24%), of which a large part can be produced at low cost (

  5. An AeroCom initial assessment – optical properties in aerosol component modules of global models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kinne

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The AeroCom exercise diagnoses multi-component aerosol modules in global modeling. In an initial assessment simulated global distributions for mass and mid-visible aerosol optical thickness (aot were compared among 20 different modules. Model diversity was also explored in the context of previous comparisons. For the component combined aot general agreement has improved for the annual global mean. At 0.11 to 0.14, simulated aot values are at the lower end of global averages suggested by remote sensing from ground (AERONET ca. 0.135 and space (satellite composite ca. 0.15. More detailed comparisons, however, reveal that larger differences in regional distribution and significant differences in compositional mixture remain. Of particular concern are large model diversities for contributions by dust and carbonaceous aerosol, because they lead to significant uncertainty in aerosol absorption (aab. Since aot and aab, both, influence the aerosol impact on the radiative energy-balance, the aerosol (direct forcing uncertainty in modeling is larger than differences in aot might suggest. New diagnostic approaches are proposed to trace model differences in terms of aerosol processing and transport: These include the prescription of common input (e.g. amount, size and injection of aerosol component emissions and the use of observational capabilities from ground (e.g. measurements networks or space (e.g. correlations between aerosol and clouds.

  6. A Global Database for the Compilation and Assessment of Holocene Sedimentary Paleomagnetic Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. C.; Donadini, F.; Korte, M. C.; Frank, U.; Nilsson, A.

    2011-12-01

    Global geomagnetic field reconstructions for the Holocene can provide powerful information about the geodynamo process and can constrain geomagnetic shielding, important for our understanding of the interaction between the geomagnetic field and cosmogenic nuclide production. Coherent structure is evident in these reconstructions and this has significant implications for controls on the geodynamo. However, the resolution and reliability of current models require improvements and are limited by: 1) the restricted global coverage of sites, especially in the southern hemisphere; 2) the low precision of some magnetic data and independent dates; 3) an incomplete assessment of data quality. Improving these aspects for sedimentary records is particularly important as loosely constrained sedimentary data have a large influence on model output from spherical harmonic reconstructions of the Holocene geomagnetic field (e.g., CALS7k.2, CALS3k.3, CALS10k.1b and SED3k.1). In addition, the current SECRV00 database lacks data from the most recent studies and a number of older studies. We present our current effort to assess data quality through the design of a new database for global sedimentary data covering the last 10 ka; implemented as part of the successful GEOMAGIA50 database, already constructed for paleomagnetic data from archaeological and volcanic materials. Our aim is two-fold: 1) to transparently catalogue all available sedimentary data for the Holocene, so the broader scientific community can access a range of information related to specific cores; 2) to design a database with the functionally to select paleomagnetic data based upon parameters that reflect the fidelity of the data. To make accurate assessments of data quality it is necessary to determine paleomagnetic, rock magnetic, mineralogical and chronological parameters that may influence the fidelity of the record. We show these selected parameters and how they are implemented in the database design. All

  7. A global database for the compilation and assessment of Holocene sedimentary palaeomagnetic records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. C.; Donadini, F.; Korte, M.; Frank, U.; Nilsson, A.

    2012-04-01

    Global reconstructions of the Holocene palaeomagnetic field can provide powerful information about the geodynamo process and can constrain geomagnetic shielding, important for our understanding of the interaction between the geomagnetic field and cosmogenic nuclide production. Coherent structure is evident in these reconstructions and this has significant implications for controls on the geodynamo. However, the resolution and reliability of current models are limited by: 1) the restricted global coverage of sites, with data especially lacking in the southern hemisphere; 2) the low precision of some magnetic data and independent dates; and 3) an incomplete assessment of data quality. Improving these aspects for sedimentary records is particularly important as loosely constrained sedimentary data strongly influence the model output from spherical harmonic reconstructions of the Holocene geomagnetic field (e.g., differences between CALS3k.3 and CALS3k.4). In addition, the current SECRV00 database lacks data from the most recent sedimentary studies and a number of older studies. We present our current effort to improve the number of studies included in the CALSxk model series and our attempts to assess data quality. In addition, we show the design of a new database for global sedimentary data covering the last 10 ka, which we have implemented as an extension to the GEOMAGIA50 database. Our aim is two-fold: 1) to transparently catalogue all available sedimentary data for the Holocene, so the broader scientific community can access a range of information related to specific cores; and 2) to design a database with the functionally to select palaeomagnetic data based upon parameters that reflect the quality of the data. To make accurate assessments of data quality it is necessary to determine palaeomagnetic, rock magnetic, mineralogical, sedimentary, environmental and chronological parameters that may influence the fidelity of the record. We show these selected parameters

  8. Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Mernild

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the undersampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global undersampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 32 ± 12% of their area and 38 ± 16% of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea-level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions.

  9. Potential of Using Remote Sensing Techniques for Global Assessment of Water Footprint of Crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mireia Romaguera

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Remote sensing has long been a useful tool in global applications, since it provides physically-based, worldwide, and consistent spatial information. This paper discusses the potential of using these techniques in the research field of water management, particularly for ‘Water Footprint’ (WF studies. The WF of a crop is defined as the volume of water consumed for its production, where green and blue WF stand for rain and irrigation water usage, respectively. In this paper evapotranspiration, precipitation, water storage, runoff and land use are identified as key variables to potentially be estimated by remote sensing and used for WF assessment. A mass water balance is proposed to calculate the volume of irrigation applied, and green and blue WF are obtained from the green and blue evapotranspiration components. The source of remote sensing data is described and a simplified example is included, which uses evapotranspiration estimates from the geostationary satellite Meteosat 9 and precipitation estimates obtained with the Climatic Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH. The combination of data in this approach brings several limitations with respect to discrepancies in spatial and temporal resolution and data availability, which are discussed in detail. This work provides new tools for global WF assessment and represents an innovative approach to global irrigation mapping, enabling the estimation of green and blue water use.

  10. Assessing Compatibility of Direct Detection Data: Halo-Independent Global Likelihood Analyses

    CERN Document Server

    Gelmini, Graciela B.

    2016-10-18

    We present two different halo-independent methods utilizing a global maximum likelihood that can assess the compatibility of dark matter direct detection data given a particular dark matter model. The global likelihood we use is comprised of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Poisson or Gaussian likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function and construct a two sided pointwise confidence band, which can then be compared with those derived from the extended likelihood alone to assess the joint compatibility of the data. In the second method we define a "constrained parameter goodness-of-fit" test statistic, whose $p$-value we then use to define a "plausibility region" (e.g. where $p \\geq 10\\%$). For any halo function not entirely contained within the plausibility region, the level of compatibility of the data is very low (e.g. $p < 10 \\%$). As an example we apply these methods to CDMS-II-Si and SuperCDMS data, assuming dark matter particles with elastic s...

  11. Global Assessment of Bisphenol A in the Environment: Review and Analysis of Its Occurrence and Bioaccumulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrales, Jone; Kristofco, Lauren A; Steele, W Baylor; Yates, Brian S; Breed, Christopher S; Williams, E Spencer; Brooks, Bryan W

    2015-01-01

    Because bisphenol A (BPA) is a high production volume chemical, we examined over 500 peer-reviewed studies to understand its global distribution in effluent discharges, surface waters, sewage sludge, biosolids, sediments, soils, air, wildlife, and humans. Bisphenol A was largely reported from urban ecosystems in Asia, Europe, and North America; unfortunately, information was lacking from large geographic areas, megacities, and developing countries. When sufficient data were available, probabilistic hazard assessments were performed to understand global environmental quality concerns. Exceedances of Canadian Predicted No Effect Concentrations for aquatic life were >50% for effluents in Asia, Europe, and North America but as high as 80% for surface water reports from Asia. Similarly, maximum concentrations of BPA in sediments from Asia were higher than Europe. Concentrations of BPA in wildlife, mostly for fish, ranged from 0.2 to 13 000 ng/g. We observed 60% and 40% exceedences of median levels by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in Europe and Asia, respectively. These findings highlight the utility of coordinating global sensing of environmental contaminants efforts through integration of environmental monitoring and specimen banking to identify regions for implementation of more robust environmental assessment and management programs.

  12. Designing a global assessment of climate change on inland fishes and fisheries: knowns and needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paukert, Craig; Lynch, Abigail J.; Beard, T. Douglas; Chen, Yushun; Cooke, Steven J.; Cooperman, Michael S.; Cowx, Ian G.; Infante, Dana M.; Ibengwe, Lilian; Myers, Bonnie; Nguyen, Phu Hoa; Winfield, Ian J.

    2017-01-01

    To date, there are few comprehensive assessments of how climate change affects inland finfish, fisheries, and aquaculture at a global scale, but one is necessary to identify research needs and commonalities across regions and to help guide decision making and funding priorities. Broadly, the consequences of climate change on inland fishes will impact global food security, the livelihoods of people who depend on inland capture and recreational fisheries. However, understanding how climate change will affect inland fishes and fisheries has lagged behind marine assessments. Building from a North American inland fisheries assessment, we convened an expert panel from seven countries to provide a first-step to a framework for determining how to approach an assessment of how climate change may affect inland fishes, capture fisheries, and aquaculture globally. Starting with the small group helped frame the key questions (e.g., who is the audience? What is the best approach and spatial scale?). Data gaps identified by the group include: the tolerances of inland fisheries to changes in temperature, stream flows, salinity, and other environmental factors linked to climate change, and the adaptive capacity of fishes and fisheries to adjust to these changes. These questions are difficult to address, but long-term and large-scale datasets are becoming more readily available as a means to test hypotheses related to climate change. We hope this perspective will help researchers and decision makers identify research priorities and provide a framework to help sustain inland fish populations and fisheries for the diversity of users around the globe.

  13. Global structural condition assessment of highway bridges by ambient vibration monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Maria Q.; Chen, Yangbo; Tan, Chin-An

    2005-05-01

    Structural condition assessment of highway bridges has long been relying on visual inspection, which, however, involves subjective judgment of the inspector and detects only local flaws. Local flaws might not affect the global performance of the bridge. By instrumenting bridges with accelerometers and other sensors, one is able to monitor ambient or forced vibration of the bridge and assess its global structural condition. Ambient vibration measurement outwits forced vibration measurement in that it requires no special test arrangement, such as traffic control or a heavy shaker. As a result, it can be continuously executed while the bridge is under its normal serving condition. For short-to mid-span highway bridges, ambient vibration is predominantly due to traffic excitation, inducing the bridge to vibrate mainly in vertical direction. Based on its physical nature, traffic excitation is modeled as moving loads from the passing vehicles whose arrivals and speeds are extracted from digital video. Traffic-induced vibration provides valuable information for assessing the health of super-structure, but is less sensitive to possible seismic damage in the sub-structure. During earthquakes, bridges are excited in all directions by short-duration un-stationary ground motion, and are expected to better reveal their sub-structure integrity. Therefore, traffic-induced and ground-motion-induced ambient vibration data are treated separately in this paper for different assessment objectives, because of the different characteristics and measurability of the excitation. By continuously monitoring the ambient vibration of the instrumented bridge, its global structural conditions of both super- and sub-structures can be evaluated with possible damage locations identified, which will aid local non-destructive evaluation or visual inspection to further localize and access the damage.

  14. Assessment of undiscovered sandstone copper deposits of the Kodar-Udokan area, Russia: Chapter M in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zientek, Michael L.; Chechetkin, Vladimir S.; Parks, Heather L.; Box, Stephen E.; Briggs, Deborah A.; Cossette, Pamela M.; Dolgopolova, Alla; Hayes, Timothy S.; Seltmann, Reimar; Syusyura, Boris; Taylor, Cliff D.; Wintzer, Niki E.

    2014-01-01

    Mineral resource assessments integrate and synthesize available information as a basis for estimating the location, quality, and quantity of undiscovered mineral resources. This probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered sandstone copper deposits within Paleoproterozoic metasedimentary rocks of the Kodar-Udokan area in Russia is a contribution to a global assessment led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The purposes of this study are to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) to indicate where undiscovered sandstone-hosted copper deposits may occur within 2 km of the surface, (2) provide a database of known sandstone copper deposits and significant prospects, (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within these permissive tracts at several levels of confidence, and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu) and mineralized rock that could be contained in undiscovered deposits within each tract. The workshop for the assessment, held in October 2009, used a three-part form of mineral resource assessment as described by Singer (1993) and Singer and Menzie (2010).

  15. Assessing the contamination of SuperDARN global convection maps by non-F-region backscatter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Chisham

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Global convection mapping using line-of-sight Doppler velocity data from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN is now an accepted method of imaging high-latitude ionospheric convection. This mapping process requires that the flow measured by the radars is defined solely by the convection electric field. This is generally only true of radar backscatter from the ionospheric F-region. We investigate the extent to which the E-region and ground backscatter in the SuperDARN data set may be misidentified as F-region backscatter, and assess the contamination of global convection maps which results from the addition of this non-F-region backscatter. We present examples which highlight the importance of identifying this contamination, especially with regard to the mesoscale structure in the convection maps.Key words. Ionosphere (plasma convection – Radio science (radio wave propagation; instruments and techniques

  16. Assessing the Impact of Stricter Alcohol Advertising Standards: The Case of Beam Global Spirits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Craig S.; Sparks, Alicia; Jernigan, David H.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Reducing youth exposure to alcohol advertising is a global health priority. In most countries around the world, the alcohol industry is given the opportunity to regulate itself with respect to advertising practices. Generally, the alcohol industry self-regulations are lax, allowing youth to be disproportionately exposed to alcohol advertising. However, Beam Global Spirits and Wine (Beam) voluntarily adopted more restrictive advertising standards in the United States in 2007. This study assessed Beam's compliance with their new standard and estimates its effect on youth exposure and advertising costs. We found that Beam's compliance with its more restrictive standards was imperfect, but never-the-less, we estimated that youth exposure to alcohol advertising was reduced compared to other spirits brands. Beam's more restrictive standards did not increase their advertising costs and therefore other alcohol companies should consider adopting similar standards around the world. PMID:28042284

  17. A City and National Metric measuring Isolation from the Global Market for Food Security Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Silver, Kirk Coleman; Rajagopalan, Krishnan

    2013-01-01

    The World Bank has invested in infrastructure in developing countries for decades. This investment aims to reduce the isolation of markets, reducing both seasonality and variability in food availability and food prices. Here we combine city market price data, global distance to port, and country infrastructure data to create a new Isolation Index for countries and cities around the world. Our index quantifies the isolation of a city from the global market. We demonstrate that an index built at the country level can be applied at a sub-national level to quantify city isolation. In doing so, we offer policy makers with an alternative metric to assess food insecurity. We compare our isolation index with other indices and economic data found in the literature.We show that our Index measures economic isolation regardless of economic stability using correlation and analysis

  18. Assessing Interest and Barriers for Resident and Faculty Involvement in Global Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Maija; Healy, James M; Hall, Michael R; Ozgediz, Doruk

    2017-07-17

    Multiple institutions have developed international electives and sustainable global surgery initiatives to facilitate clinical, research, and outreach opportunities with hospitals in resource-poor areas. Despite increasing interest among programs, many institutions have not successfully reached potential involvement. This study evaluates the experiences of Yale residents and faculty, measures interest in the development of an international surgical elective, and enumerates barriers to developing or participating in these opportunities. This was performed to develop a formalized elective and assess interest and capacity for surgical global health initiatives, as a seemingly increasing number of trainee applicants and residents were expressing interest in working in resource-poor settings. Electronic survey of Yale Surgery residents and faculty analyzed using SPSS and Graphpad Prism. Among residents, previous global experience correlates with current interest in international opportunities, with 100% remaining interested, and 78% of those without prior experience also expressing interest (p = 0.018). Barriers to pursuing these activities included the use of vacation time, funding, scheduling, family obligations, and concern for personal safety. Among faculty, 28% of respondents have been involved internationally, and most (86%) expressed interest in additional opportunities and all were willing to take residents. Barriers to faculty participation included funding, relative value unit target reduction, protected time, and the desire for institutional support for such activities. A substantial proportion of residents and faculty have experience in global health and motivation to pursue additional opportunities. The main barriers to participation are not a lack of interest, but rather needs for funding support, protected time, and institutional recognition of academic contributions. These findings are being used to develop a global surgery elective and establish long

  19. Regional to Global Assessments of Phytoplankton Dynamics From The SeaWiFS Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, David; Behrenfeld, Michael; Maritorena, Stephanie; McClain, Charles R.; Antoine, David; Bailey, Sean W.; Bontempi, Paula S.; Boss, Emmanuel S.; Dierssen, Heidi M.; Doney, Scott C.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Photosynthetic production of organic matter by microscopic oceanic phytoplankton fuels ocean ecosystems and contributes roughly half of the Earth's net primary production. For 13 years, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission provided the first consistent, synoptic observations of global ocean ecosystems. Changes in the surface chlorophyll concentration, the primary biological property retrieved from SeaWiFS, have traditionally been used as a metric for phytoplankton abundance and its distribution largely reflects patterns in vertical nutrient transport. On regional to global scales, chlorophyll concentrations covary with sea surface temperature (SST) because SST changes reflect light and nutrient conditions. However, the oceanmay be too complex to be well characterized using a single index such as the chlorophyll concentration. A semi-analytical bio-optical algorithm is used to help interpret regional to global SeaWiFS chlorophyll observations from using three independent, well-validated ocean color data products; the chlorophyll a concentration, absorption by CDM and particulate backscattering. First, we show that observed long-term, global-scale trends in standard chlorophyll retrievals are likely compromised by coincident changes in CDM. Second, we partition the chlorophyll signal into a component due to phytoplankton biomass changes and a component caused by physiological adjustments in intracellular chlorophyll concentrations to changes in mixed layer light levels. We show that biomass changes dominate chlorophyll signals for the high latitude seas and where persistent vertical upwelling is known to occur, while physiological processes dominate chlorophyll variability over much of the tropical and subtropical oceans. The SeaWiFS data set demonstrates complexity in the interpretation of changes in regional to global phytoplankton distributions and illustrates limitations for the assessment of phytoplankton dynamics using chlorophyll

  20. Assessing current genetic status of the Hainan gibbon using historical and demographic baselines: implications for conservation management of species of extreme rarity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryant, J V; Gottelli, D; Zeng, X; Hong, X; Chan, B P L; Fellowes, J R; Zhang, Y; Luo, J; Durrant, C; Geissmann, T; Chatterjee, H J; Turvey, S T

    2016-08-01

    Evidence-based conservation planning is crucial for informing management decisions for species of extreme rarity, but collection of robust data on genetic status or other parameters can be extremely challenging for such species. The Hainan gibbon, possibly the world's rarest mammal, consists of a single population of ~25 individuals restricted to one protected area on Hainan Island, China, and has persisted for over 30 years at exceptionally low population size. Analysis of genotypes at 11 microsatellite loci from faecal samples for 36% of the current global population and tissue samples from 62% of existing historical museum specimens demonstrates limited current genetic diversity (Na = 2.27, Ar = 2.24, He  = 0.43); diversity has declined since the 19th century and even further within the last 30 years, representing declines of ~30% from historical levels (Na = 3.36, Ar = 3.29, He  = 0.63). Significant differentiation is seen between current and historical samples (FST  = 0.156, P = 0.0315), and the current population exhibits extremely small Ne (current Ne  = 2.16). There is evidence for both a recent population bottleneck and an earlier bottleneck, with population size already reasonably low by the late 19th century (historical Ne  = 1162.96). Individuals in the current population are related at the level of half- to full-siblings between social groups, and full-siblings or parent-offspring within a social group, suggesting that inbreeding is likely to increase in the future. The species' current reduced genetic diversity must be considered during conservation planning, particularly for expectations of likely population recovery, indicating that intensive, carefully planned management is essential. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, T. A.; Peel, M. C.; Karoly, D. J.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to identify better performing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) global climate models (GCMs) that reproduce grid-scale climatological statistics of observed precipitation and temperature for input to hydrologic simulation over global land regions. Current assessments are aimed mainly at examining the performance of GCMs from a climatology perspective and not from a hydrology standpoint. The performance of each GCM in reproducing the precipitation and temperature statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) 3.10 gridded data set and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM-based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen-Geiger climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index and root mean square error (RMSE) between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following better performing GCMs from a hydrologic perspective: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research), MIROCm (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for Global Change), MIUB (Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Meteorological Research Institute of KMA, and Model and Data group), MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology) and MRI (Japan Meteorological Research Institute). The future response of these GCMs was found to be representative of the 44 GCM ensemble members which confirms that the selected GCMs are reasonably

  2. The assessment of Global Precipitation Measurement estimates over the Indian subcontinent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murali Krishna, U. V.; Das, Subrata Kumar; Deshpande, Sachin M.; Doiphode, S. L.; Pandithurai, G.

    2017-08-01

    Accurate and real-time precipitation estimation is a challenging task for current and future spaceborne measurements, which is essential to understand the global hydrological cycle. Recently, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites were launched as a next-generation rainfall mission for observing the global precipitation characteristics. The purpose of the GPM is to enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global precipitation. The main objective of the present study is to assess the rainfall products from the GPM, especially the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the GPM (IMERG) data by comparing with the ground-based observations. The multitemporal scale evaluations of rainfall involving subdaily, diurnal, monthly, and seasonal scales were performed over the Indian subcontinent. The comparison shows that the IMERG performed better than the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-3B42, although both rainfall products underestimated the observed rainfall compared to the ground-based measurements. The analyses also reveal that the TRMM-3B42 and IMERG data sets are able to represent the large-scale monsoon rainfall spatial features but are having region-specific biases. The IMERG shows significant improvement in low rainfall estimates compared to the TRMM-3B42 for selected regions. In the spatial distribution, the IMERG shows higher rain rates compared to the TRMM-3B42, due to its enhanced spatial and temporal resolutions. Apart from this, the characteristics of raindrop size distribution (DSD) obtained from the GPM mission dual-frequency precipitation radar is assessed over the complex mountain terrain site in the Western Ghats, India, using the DSD measured by a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer.

  3. Using historical simulations of vegetation to assess departure of current vegetation conditions across large landscapes[Chapter 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa Holsinger; Robert E. Keane; Brian Steele; Matthew C. Reeves; Sarah Pratt

    2006-01-01

    The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, was conceived, in part, to identify areas across the nation where existing landscape conditions are markedly different from historical conditions (Keane and Rollins, Ch. 3). This objective arose from the recognition that over 100 years of land use and wildland...

  4. Historical range of variation assessment for wetland and riparian ecosystems, U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edward Gage; David J. Cooper

    2013-01-01

    This document provides an overview of historical range of variation concepts and explores their application to wetland and riparian ecosystems in the US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region (Region 2), which includes National Forests and National Grasslands occurring in the states of Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, and South Dakota. For each of five ecosystem...

  5. Geospatial assessment and monitoring of historical forest cover changes (1920-2012) in Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, Western Ghats, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satish, K V; Saranya, K R L; Reddy, C Sudhakar; Krishna, P Hari; Jha, C S; Rao, P V V Prasada

    2014-12-01

    Deforestation in the biosphere reserves, which are key Protected Areas has negative impacts on biodiversity, climate, carbon fluxes and livelihoods. Comprehensive study of deforestation in biosphere reserves is required to assess the impact of the management effectiveness. This article assesses the changes in forest cover in various zones and protected areas of Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, the first declared biosphere reserve in India which forms part of Western Ghats-a global biodiversity hotspot. In this study, we have mapped the forests from earliest available topographical maps and multi-temporal satellite data spanning from 1920's to 2012 period. Mapping of spatial extent of forest cover, vegetation types and land cover was carried out using visual interpretation technique. A grid cell of 1 km × 1 km was generated for time series change analysis to understand the patterns in spatial distribution of forest cover (1920-1973-1989-1999-2006-2012). The total forest area of biosphere reserve was found to be 5,806.5 km(2) (93.8 % of total geographical area) in 1920. Overall loss of forest cover was estimated as 1,423.6 km(2) (24.5 % of the total forest) with reference to 1920. Among the six Protected Areas, annual deforestation rate of >0.5 was found in Wayanad wildlife sanctuary during 1920-1973. The deforestation in Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve is mainly attributed to conversion of forests to plantations and agriculture along with submergence due to construction of dams during 1920 to 1989. Grid wise analysis indicates that 851 grids have undergone large-scale negative changes of >75 ha of forest loss during 1920-1973 while, only 15 grids have shown >75 ha loss during 1973-1989. Annual net rate of deforestation for the period of 1920 to 1973 was calculated as 0.5 followed by 0.1 for 1973 to 1989. Our analysis shows that there was large-scale deforestation before the declaration of area as biosphere reserve in 1986; however, the deforestation has drastically

  6. The economic feasibility of seawater desalination over the global scale: assessment of the production cost development and national water price until 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, L.; Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

    2016-12-01

    As many countries are suffering water scarcity due to the climate change and human activities, seawater desalination using reverse osmosis (SWRO) has shown to be a progressively promising countermeasure to satisfy the growing water demand. Therefore, the economic feasibility assessment of SWRO will be beneficial for the potential investors and policy-makers of government. In present study, it have proposed a systematic method to evaluate the economic feasibility of implementing SWRO in 140 counties and further estimated the potential future diffusion of SWRO over global scale by 2050. To the purpose, two models has been separately developed to simulate the production cost of SWRO and conventional water price, which are identified as the critical economic factors for feasibility evaluation of SWRO. These two models were firstly applied to historical validation in which proven to be able to well simulate both these two economic factors, and then were applied globally for future simulation over the period of 2015-2050 under three socioeconomic scenarios, i.e. SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 1-3. Basin on the estimated production cost and water price, the economic feasibility of adopting SWRO coupling with its future potentialities were carefully evaluated. As a result, it indicated that SWRO was expected to be cost-effectively adopted in more countries by 2050, especially in these developing countries. The significant potential diffusion of SWRO in countries was mainly attributed to both the diminishing production cost and the increasing conventional water price as a result of income growth globally in three SSPs scenarios.

  7. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Database and Metrics Data of Global Surface Ozone Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin G. Schultz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In support of the first Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR a relational database of global surface ozone observations has been developed and populated with hourly measurement data and enhanced metadata. A comprehensive suite of ozone data products including standard statistics, health and vegetation impact metrics, and trend information, are made available through a common data portal and a web interface. These data form the basis of the TOAR analyses focusing on human health, vegetation, and climate relevant ozone issues, which are part of this special feature. Cooperation among many data centers and individual researchers worldwide made it possible to build the world's largest collection of 'in-situ' hourly surface ozone data covering the period from 1970 to 2015. By combining the data from almost 10,000 measurement sites around the world with global metadata information, new analyses of surface ozone have become possible, such as the first globally consistent characterisations of measurement sites as either urban or rural/remote. Exploitation of these global metadata allows for new insights into the global distribution, and seasonal and long-term changes of tropospheric ozone and they enable TOAR to perform the first, globally consistent analysis of present-day ozone concentrations and recent ozone changes with relevance to health, agriculture, and climate. Considerable effort was made to harmonize and synthesize data formats and metadata information from various networks and individual data submissions. Extensive quality control was applied to identify questionable and erroneous data, including changes in apparent instrument offsets or calibrations. Such data were excluded from TOAR data products. Limitations of 'a posteriori' data quality assurance are discussed. As a result of the work presented here, global coverage of surface ozone data for scientific analysis has been significantly extended. Yet, large gaps remain in the surface

  8. The Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR): developing a tool for clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutcliffe, J R; Barker, P

    2004-08-01

    Contemporary and established literature indicates that people with mental health problems are at a higher risk of suicide than the general population. Because suicide is a multifaceted, complex phenomenon, risk assessment within the mental health care system requires a pluralistic, multidimensional and multiprofessional response. While assessment tools may provide useful guidance, especially guarding against complacency and over confidence, the fundamental basis of risk assessment must involve a thorough examination of the personal, interpersonal and social circumstances of each individual. Such thorough and rigorous assessments, the authors of this paper would add, require a degree of 'clinical judgement'. As a rule, inexperienced members of mental health care staff should not be charged with the responsibility of conducting suicide risk assessments without sound mentorship. However, with the right support and assessment tool, the novice practitioner might develop the kind of clinical judgement necessary for this critical task. Accordingly, this paper traces the development of the Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR). It illustrates the practice development context out of which the need for the tool arose; it outlines the key evidence that underpins the construction of the tool and it is described. It is important to point out that as yet, no wide scale, quantitative validation of the tool has been conducted. Therefore, at this point, the tool should be treated with a degree of appropriate caution. Nevertheless, the preliminary attempts that have been made to 'validate' or 'rate' the tool in practice are included. While acknowledging that any risk assessment tool represents only one aspect of the necessarily broader assessment of risk, the NGASR appears to provide a useful template for the nursing assessment of suicide risk, especially for the novice.

  9. Magnetic resonance imaging assessed inflammation in the wrist is associated with patient-reported physical impairment, global assessment of disease activity and pain in early rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glinatsi, Daniel; Baker, Joshua F; Hetland, Merete L

    2017-01-01

    with health assessment questionnaires (HAQ), patient global visual analogue scales (VAS-PtGlobal) and VAS-pain using Spearman's correlations, generalised estimating equations and univariate/multivariable linear regression analyses. MRI features were further tested for trends against specific hand-related HAQ...... metacarpophalangeal joints in the analyses did not strengthen the associations between MRI pathology and PROs. CONCLUSIONS: MRI-assessed inflammation, but not damage, in early RA wrists is associated with patient-reported physical impairment, global assessment of disease activity and pain and influences the physical...

  10. Global assessment of a cable-stayed bridge model using SNLSE approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hongwei; Sun, Yisha

    2014-03-01

    Global assessment of structural conditions is important for structural health monitoring system. In particular, online or almost online structural parametric identification, based on vibration data measured from sensors, has received considerable attention recently. However, the problem becomes more challenging when the structure is complex and the number of degree-of-freedom (DOF) is large. A newly proposed time domain analysis methodology, referred to as the sequential nonlinear LSE (SNLSE) approach, has been studied and shown to be useful for the online tracking of parameters for structures with small DOFs. In this paper, the SNLSE approach will be applied for global assessment of an experimental cable-stay bridge model with large DOFs. A dynamic equivalent model of the bridge will be established and finite element analysis will be carried out to formulate the equation of motion. Numerical analysis will be conducted with different simulated damage scenarios and limited number of response data is considered. The capability of the proposed SNLSE approach in identifying the structural parameters and assessing the structural conditions will be verified.

  11. Global and 3D spatial assessment of neuroinflammation in rodent models of Multiple Sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shashank Gupta

    Full Text Available Multiple Sclerosis (MS is a progressive autoimmune inflammatory and demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS. T cells play a key role in the progression of neuroinflammation in MS and also in the experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE animal models for the disease. A technology for quantitative and 3 dimensional (3D spatial assessment of inflammation in this and other CNS inflammatory conditions is much needed. Here we present a procedure for 3D spatial assessment and global quantification of the development of neuroinflammation based on Optical Projection Tomography (OPT. Applying this approach to the analysis of rodent models of MS, we provide global quantitative data of the major inflammatory component as a function of the clinical course. Our data demonstrates a strong correlation between the development and progression of neuroinflammation and clinical disease in several mouse and a rat model of MS refining the information regarding the spatial dynamics of the inflammatory component in EAE. This method provides a powerful tool to investigate the effect of environmental and genetic forces and for assessing the therapeutic effects of drug therapy in animal models of MS and other neuroinflammatory/neurodegenerative disorders.

  12. Assessing global climate-terrestrial vegetation feedbacks on carbon and nitrogen cycling in the earth system model EC-Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wårlind, David; Miller, Paul; Nieradzik, Lars; Söderberg, Fredrik; Anthoni, Peter; Arneth, Almut; Smith, Ben

    2017-04-01

    There has been great progress in developing an improved European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) in preparation for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the next Assessment Report of the IPCC. The new model version has been complemented with ocean biogeochemistry, atmospheric composition (aerosols and chemistry) and dynamic land vegetation components, and has been configured to use the recommended CMIP6 forcing data sets. These new components will give us fresh insights into climate change. This study focuses on the terrestrial biosphere component Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) that simulates vegetation dynamics and compound exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere in EC-Earth. LPJ-GUESS allows for vegetation to dynamically evolve, depending on climate input, and in return provides the climate system and land surface scheme with vegetation-dependent fields such as vegetation types and leaf area index. We present the results of a study to examine the feedbacks between the dynamic terrestrial vegetation and the climate and their impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycles. Our results are based on a set of global, atmosphere-only historical simulations (1870 to 2014) with and without feedback between climate and vegetation and including or ignoring the effect of nitrogen limitation on plant productivity. These simulations show to what extent the addition degree of freedom in EC-Earth, introduced with the coupling of interactive dynamic vegetation to the atmosphere, has on terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling, and represent contributions to CMIP6 (C4MIP and LUMIP) and the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO.

  13. Ontology development for provenance tracing in National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Linyun; Ma, Xiaogang; Zheng, Jin; Goldstein, Justin; Duggan, Brian; West, Patrick; Aulenbach, Steve; Tilmes, Curt; Fox, Peter

    2014-05-01

    This poster will show how we used a case-driven iterative methodology to develop an ontology to represent the content structure and the associated provenance information in a National Climate Assessment (NCA) report of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). We applied the W3C PROV-O ontology to implement a formal representation of provenance. We argue that the use case-driven, iterative development process and the application of a formal provenance ontology help efficiently incorporate domain knowledge from earth and environmental scientists in a well-structured model interoperable in the context of the Web of Data.

  14. Assessing the financial potential for modularization: A case study in a global OEM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løkkegaard, Martin; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Assessing the financial potential of implementing a strategy, based on sharing of key modules and interfaces across a portfolio is difficult. However, this is a critical input when deciding strategic direction in industrial organizations. Through a case study, this paper gives an example of how...... to map and evaluate the architectures in a portfolio to identify the financial potential for implanting a platform-based modularization strategy. The approach has been applied in a global world-leading OEM with 50.000+ product variants and a turnover of USD 3,5b (2015). The results show a potential...

  15. Spatial-based assessment at continental to global scale : case studies in petroleum exploration and ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Watson, Lisa Jean

    2017-01-01

    Access to natural resources is a problem current and future generations must overcome. To better understand potential changes in access for society due to environmental impacts, global spatio-temporal modeling is required. Spatial data for global assessments have uncertainty, and decision making can

  16. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K Costanza

    Full Text Available The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068, while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each. We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.

  17. Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter S Rand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

  18. Acquired and Participatory Competencies in Health Professions Education: Definition and Assessment in Global Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichbaum, Quentin

    2017-04-01

    Many health professions education programs in high-income countries (HICs) have adopted a competency-based approach to learning. Although global health programs have followed this trend, defining and assessing competencies has proven problematic, particularly in resource-constrained settings of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where HIC students and trainees perform elective work. In part, this is due to programs failing to take sufficient account of local learning, cultural, and health contexts.A major divide between HIC and LMIC settings is that the learning contexts of HICs are predominantly individualist, whereas those of LMICs are generally collectivist. Individualist cultures view learning as something that the individual acquires independent of context and can possess; collectivist cultures view learning as arising dynamically from specific contexts through group participation.To bridge the individualist-collectivist learning divide, the author proposes that competencies be classified as either acquired or participatory. Acquired competencies can be transferred across contexts and assessed using traditional psychometric approaches; participatory competencies are linked to contexts and require alternative assessment approaches. The author proposes assessing participatory competencies through the approach of self-directed assessment seeking, which includes multiple members of the health care team as assessors.The proposed classification of competencies as acquired or participatory may apply across health professions. The author suggests advancing participatory competencies through mental models of sharing. In global health education, the author recommends developing three new competency domains rooted in participatory learning, collectivism, and sharing: resourceful learning; transprofessionalism and transformative learning; and social justice and health equity.

  19. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer K; Coulston, John W; Wear, David N

    2017-01-01

    The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068), while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each). We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV) for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.

  20. Assessment of Historic Trend in Mobility and Energy Use in India Transportation Sector Using Bottom-up Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Nan; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-05-01

    Transportation mobility in India has increased significantly in the past decades. From 1970 to 2000, motorized mobility (passenger-km) has risen by 888%, compared with an 88% population growth (Singh,2006). This contributed to many energy and environmental issues, and an energy strategy incorporates efficiency improvement and other measures needs to be designed. Unfortunately, existing energy data do not provide information on driving forces behind energy use and sometime show large inconsistencies. Many previous studies address only a single transportation mode such as passenger road travel; did not include comprehensive data collection or analysis has yet been done, or lack detail on energy demand by each mode and fuel mix. The current study will fill a considerable gap in current efforts, develop a data base on all transport modes including passenger air and water, and freight in order to facilitate the development of energy scenarios and assess significance of technology potential in a global climate change model. An extensive literature review and data collection has been done to establish the database with breakdown of mobility, intensity, distance, and fuel mix of all transportation modes. Energy consumption was estimated and compared with aggregated transport consumption reported in IEA India transportation energy data. Different scenarios were estimated based on different assumptions on freight road mobility. Based on the bottom-up analysis, we estimated that the energy consumption from 1990 to 2000 increased at an annual growth rate of 7% for the mid-range road freight growth case and 12% for the high road freight growth case corresponding to the scenarios in mobility, while the IEA data only shows a 1.7% growth rate in those years.

  1. Assessment of impact of strong earthquakes to the global economy by example of Thoku event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Sergey, Baranov; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova

    2016-04-01

    We examine the economic consequences of strong earthquakes by example of M9 Tahoku one that occurred on March 11, 2011 close to the northeast shore of Japanese coast Honshu. This earthquake became the strongest in the whole history of the seismological observations in this part of the planet. The generated tsunami killed more than 15,700 people, damaged 332,395 buildings and 2,126 roads. The total economic loss in Japan was estimated at 309 billion. The catastrophe in Japan also impacted global economy. To estimate its impact, we used regional and global stock indexes, production indexes, stock prices of the main Japanese, European and US companies, import and export dynamics, as well as the data provided by the custom of Japan. We also demonstrated that the catastrophe substantially affected the markets and on the short run in some indicators it even exceeded the effect of the global financial crisis of 2008. The last strong earthquake occurred in Nepal (25.04.2015, M7.8) and Chile (16.09.2015, M8.3), both actualized the research of cost assessments of the overall economic impact of seismic hazard. We concluded that it is necessary to treat strong earthquakes as one very important factor that affects the world economy depending on their location. The research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-06-00056A).

  2. The first three years of the Journal of Global Health: Assessing the impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Rudan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Journal of Global Health (JoGH is three years old. To assess its impact, we analysed online access to JoGH’s articles using PubMed Central and Google Analytics tools. Moreover, we tracked citations that JoGH received in 2013 using ISI Web of KnowledgeSM and Google Scholar® tools. The 66 items (articles, viewpoints and editorials published between June 2011 and December 2013 were accessed more than 50 000 times during 2013, from more than 160 countries of the world. Seven among the 13 most accessed papers were focused on global, regional and national epidemiological estimates of important infectious diseases. JoGH articles published in 2011 and 2012 received 77 citations in Journal Citation Reports® (JCR–indexed journals in 2013 to 24 original research articles, setting our first, unofficial impact factor at 3.208. In addition, JoGH received 11 citations during 2013 to its 12 original research papers published during 2013, resulting in an immediacy index of 0.917. The number of external, non–commissioned submissions that we consider to be of high quality is continuously increasing, leading to current JoGH’s rejection rate of about 80%. The current citation analysis raises favourable expectations for the JoGH’s overall impact on the global health community in future years.

  3. Synthetic Assessment of Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change: Maps and Data, 2005, 2050, and 2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Synthetic Assessment of Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change: Maps and Data, 2005, 2050, and 2100 consist of maps and vulnerability index to...

  4. Assessment of the Conditions that Determine the Reclaiming of Stone Materials and their Use in the Revalorisation of Historical Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radziszewska-Zielina Elżbieta

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the problem of the effective management of materials obtained from demolition in the scope of the revalorisation of historical structures. The conditions that influence the reclamation and reuse of materials were analysed. The entirety of the discussion was based on the practical example of the revalorisation of the Outer Courtyard of Wawel Castle, for which the importance of these conditions has been determined, as well as the relationships between them.

  5. The numerical assessment of a full-scale historical truss structure reconstructed with use of traditional all-wooden joints

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Milch, J.; Tippner, J.; Sebera, V.; Kunecký, Jiří; Kloiber, Michal; Navrátil, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 21, September-October (2016), s. 759-766 ISSN 1296-2074 R&D Projects: GA MK(CZ) DG16P02M026 Keywords : elastic behavior * finite element method * historical truss * substructuring * wooden joints Subject RIV: AL - Art, Architecture, Cultural Heritage Impact factor: 1.838, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1296207416300450

  6. Historical Maps Potential on the Assessment of the Hydromorphological Changes in Large Rivers: Towards Sustainable Rivers Management under Altered Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuriqi, Alban; Rosário Fernandes, M.; Santos, Artur; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2017-04-01

    Hydromorphological patterns changes in large rivers, result from a long history of human interventions. In this study, we evaluate the causes and effects of hydromorphological alterations in the Iberian Minho River using a planform change analysis. We performed a temporal comparison using historical maps (nineteen century) and contemporaneous maps. The studied river was divided in 2.5 km long river stretches in a total of 25 sampling units. The historical maps were initially georeferenced for the WGS84 coordinate system. We used Geographic Information System (GIS) to extract the hydromorphological features and to store and organised the spatial data. The hydromorphological features (sinuosity index, braiding intensity, river corridor and active channel width, lotic and lentic habitats) were mapped by visual interpretation of the historical and the contemporaneous maps on a scale 1:2500 by applying the same methodology. Also, we analysed certain Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) based on pre- and post-dam daily streamflow data obtained from the Spanish Water Information System (SIA). The results revealed a significant reduction in the active channel width and all sinuosity indexes representing an overall degradation of river conditions. We also noticed a drastic diminution in the number and total area of lentic habitats causing fish habitat shifts. Changes were less evident in upstream sampling units due to diverse Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes combine with some geological constraints. These responses were consistent with reductions in mean annual discharge, flood disturbance decrease and minimum flow increase during the summer season. This work allows to understand the evolutionary trajectory of large fluvial system over more than 100 years and to implement concrete measures for sustainable river management. Keywords: historical maps, large rivers, flow alteration, sinuosity index, lotic and lentic habitats, regulated rivers, river restoration.

  7. Assessment of channel changes, model of historical floods, and effects of backwater on flood stage, and flood mitigation alternatives for the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winters, Karl E.; Baldys, Stanley

    2011-01-01

    In cooperation with the City of Wichita Falls, the U.S. Geological Survey assessed channel changes on the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas, and modeled historical floods to investigate possible causes and potential mitigation alternatives to higher flood stages in recent (2007 and 2008) floods. Extreme flooding occurred on the Wichita River on June 30, 2007, inundating 167 homes in Wichita Falls. Although a record flood stage was reached in June 2007, the peak discharge was much less than some historical floods at Wichita Falls. Streamflow and stage data from two gages on the Wichita River and one on Holliday Creek were used to assess the interaction of the two streams. Changes in the Wichita River channel were evaluated using historical aerial and ground photography, comparison of recent and historical cross sections, and comparison of channel roughness coefficients with those from earlier studies. The floods of 2007 and 2008 were modeled using a one-dimensional step-backwater model. Calibrated channel roughness was larger for the 2007 flood compared to the 2008 flood, and the 2007 flood peaked about 4 feet higher than the 2008 flood. Calibration of the 1941 flood yielded a channel roughness coefficient (Manning's n) of 0.030, which represents a fairly clean natural channel. The step-backwater model was also used to evaluate the following potential mitigation alternatives: (1) increasing the capacity of the bypass channel near River Road in Wichita Falls, Texas; (2) removal of obstructions near the Scott Avenue and Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard bridges in Wichita Falls, Texas; (3) widening of aggraded channel banks in the reach between Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard and River Road; and (4) reducing channel bank and overbank roughness. Reductions in water-surface elevations ranged from 0.1 foot to as much as 3.0 feet for the different mitigation alternatives. The effects of implementing a combination of different flood-mitigation alternatives were

  8. Determining Historical Pesticide Deposition on Cape Cod through Sediment Core Analysis:A Validation of GIS as An Exposure Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feingold, B. J.; Benoit, G.; Rudel, R.

    2006-12-01

    Geographic Information Systems (GIS) has emerged as a powerful tool to assess current and historical exposure to environmental pollutants. GIS aids in the visualization and understanding of associations between exposure to contaminants and disease. This study is an example of the bridge between environmental science and public health and of how new technology such as GIS can be incorporated into these fields to strengthen both the research and the communication of scientific results. It attempts to validate a GIS-based aerial drift model which predicts the residential exposure to and boundaries of historical organochlorine pesticide (OCP) drift from applications on cranberry bogs, tree pest sprayings and others by analytically quantifying the historical pesticide deposition in a transect of lakes radiating from a distinct spray source. This model was previously used to assess historical residential exposure to OCPs in an environmental epidemiological case-control study of breast cancer incidence on Cape Cod, MA, where the incidence rate of the disease is significantly higher than in the rest of the state. The model's validation in this current study is essential to establishing its predictive ability and thus, its further use. Ground truthing of the model was done through the collection and analysis of sediment cores along a transect of five hydrologically independent kettle ponds radiating from a distinct OCP tree-pest spray area. Measurements of OCP concentrations, total carbon and total organic carbon were determined, and dating of the sediments was completed using 210Pb and verified using 137Cs. Each 50-cm core was sliced into 25 2- cm sections for the analyses, creating a fine-scale depositional history in each pond. Information gathered from each core allows for the determination of the extent and degree of dissipation of individual spray events of a known source area and determine how well the model fits the actual data.