WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing historical global

  1. Assessing historical global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefohn, A.S. [A.S.L. and Associates, Helena, MT (United States); Husar, J.D.; Husar, R.B. [Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States). Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis; Brimblecombe, P. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    1996-07-19

    Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from energy-producing and metal production activities have become an important factor in better understanding the relationship between humans and the environment. Concerns about (1) acid rain effects on the environment and (2) anthropogenic aerosols affecting possible global change have prompted interest in the transformation and fate of sulfur in the environment. One step in assessing the importance of sulfur emissions is the development of a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time. The objective of this research effort was to create a homogeneous database for historical sulfur emission estimates for the world. The time from 1850--1990 was selected to include the period of industrialization form the time the main production of fuels and minerals began until the most recent year for which complete production data exist. This research effort attempts to correct some of the deficiencies associated with previous global sulfur emission estimates by (1) identifying those production activities that resulted in sulfur emissions by country and (2) calculating historical emission trends by country across years. An important component of this study was the comparison of the sulfur emission results with those of previous studies.

  2. A Global Geospatial Database of 5000+ Historic Flood Event Extents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Doyle, C.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Erickson, T.; Slayback, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    A key dataset that is missing for global flood model validation and understanding historic spatial flood vulnerability is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Decades of earth observing satellites and cloud computing now make it possible to not only detect floods in near real time, but to run these water detection algorithms back in time to capture the spatial extent of large numbers of specific events. This talk will show results from the largest global historical flood database developed to date. We use the Dartmouth Flood Observatory flood catalogue to map over 5000 floods (from 1985-2017) using MODIS, Landsat, and Sentinel-1 Satellites. All events are available for public download via the Earth Engine Catalogue and via a website that allows the user to query floods by area or date, assess population exposure trends over time, and download flood extents in geospatial format.In this talk, we will highlight major trends in global flood exposure per continent, land use type, and eco-region. We will also make suggestions how to use this dataset in conjunction with other global sets to i) validate global flood models, ii) assess the potential role of climatic change in flood exposure iii) understand how urbanization and other land change processes may influence spatial flood exposure iv) assess how innovative flood interventions (e.g. wetland restoration) influence flood patterns v) control for event magnitude to assess the role of social vulnerability and damage assessment vi) aid in rapid probabilistic risk assessment to enable microinsurance markets. Authors on this paper are already using the database for the later three applications and will show examples of wetland intervention analysis in Argentina, social vulnerability analysis in the USA, and micro insurance in India.

  3. A Historical Perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick Højrup; Christensen, Per

    2013-01-01

    The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical...... development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP100), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies...

  4. Debating Globalization in Social Studies Education: Approaching Globalization Historically and Discursively

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agbaria, Ayman K.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore the dominant positions in the debates on globalization in American social studies education. Specifically, the paper illustrates that, first, globalization is conceived of as more of an unprecedented new age and less of a historical development. Second, it is conceived of as more of a natural process and…

  5. A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick H; Christensen, Per

    2013-09-01

    The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP(100)), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) to net saving of 670 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of MSWM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  7. Ocean heat content and ocean energy budget: make better use of historical global subsurface temperature dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; Zhu, J.

    2016-02-01

    Ocean heat content (OHC) change contributes substantially to global sea level rise, also is a key metric of the ocean/global energy budget, so it is a vital task for the climate research community to estimate historical OHC. While there are large uncertainties regarding its value, here we review the OHC calculation by using the historical global subsurface temperature dataset, and discuss the sources of its uncertainty. The presentation briefly introduces how to correct to the systematic biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, a alternative way of filling data gaps (which is main focus of this talk), and how to choose a proper climatology. A new reconstruction of historical upper (0-700 m) OHC change will be presented, which is the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) version of historical upper OHC assessment. The authors also want to highlight the impact of observation system change on OHC calculation, which could lead to bias in OHC estimates. Furthermore, we will compare the updated observational-based estimates on ocean heat content change since 1970s with CMIP5 results. This comparison shows good agreement, increasing the confidence of the climate models in representing the climate history.

  8. Prolegomena of Human Rights. Historical Roots and Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Alina Dumitrache-Ionescu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper Prolegomena of Human Rights. Historical Roots and Globalization analyses the complexity of the history of human rights which revolve around an incessant struggle for the awareness of the value of the human being. It is the history which defends the man, the human being, regarded individually or collectively, who was subjected in the course of time to some atrocities and abuses, confronting itself with exploitation, discrimination, oppression, slavery, torture and even extermination. Moreover, the historical evolution of human rights knows halting places in which the concepts of human rights are accompanied by ambiguity, by different meanings for different people and vary in accordance with the context. By way of resemblance, the problem of human rights in the context of globalization which transforms human rights into rights of the global citizen, rights which acquire new dimensions and significances imposed by the economic, politic and social changes specific of globalization is approached in this paper. The global vision of the new human rights involves both the opportunity to have a say when they are infringed for example, when they are subjected to torture or terror, and where human rights abuses are carried out by the people, for example, trafficking in human beings. (Ritzer, & Dean, 2015, p. 115

  9. A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick H.; Christensen, Per

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Five scenarios are compared based on different waste management systems from 1970 to 2010. • Technology development for incineration and vehicular exhaust system throughout the time period is considered. • Compared scenarios show continuous improvement regarding environmental performance of waste management system. • Energy and material recovery from waste account for significant savings of Global Warming Potential (GWP) today. • Technology development for incineration has played key role in lowering the GWP during past five decades. - Abstract: The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP 100 ), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO 2 -eq. tonne −1 to net saving of 670 kg CO 2 -eq. tonne −1 of MSWM

  10. A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Habib, Komal, E-mail: koh@kbm.sdu.dk [Institute of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohr’s Alle 1, 5230 Odense M (Denmark); Schmidt, Jannick H.; Christensen, Per [Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Fibigerstraede 13, DK-9220 Aalborg OE (Denmark)

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • Five scenarios are compared based on different waste management systems from 1970 to 2010. • Technology development for incineration and vehicular exhaust system throughout the time period is considered. • Compared scenarios show continuous improvement regarding environmental performance of waste management system. • Energy and material recovery from waste account for significant savings of Global Warming Potential (GWP) today. • Technology development for incineration has played key role in lowering the GWP during past five decades. - Abstract: The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP{sub 100}), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO{sub 2}-eq. tonne{sup −1} to net saving of 670 kg CO{sub 2}-eq. tonne{sup −1} of MSWM.

  11. Globalization and its effect on Okun-Yoruba: an ethno-historical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The “world society” which globalization portends has both multifactorial and multifaceted underpinnings for African historiography. The issues of international free trade, integrated globalized economy, multinational trade agreements, universalized nancial markets and world-wide social relations have historical relevance, ...

  12. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-09-01

    In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

  13. Global imprint of historical connectivity on freshwater fish biodiversity

    OpenAIRE

    Dias, M. S.; Oberdorff, Thierry; Hugueny, Bernard; Leprieur, F.; Jézéquel, Céline; Cornu, Jean-François; Brosse, S.; Grenouillet, G.; Tedesco, Pablo

    2014-01-01

    The relative importance of contemporary and historical processes is central for understanding biodiversity patterns. While several studies show that past conditions can partly explain the current biodiversity patterns, the role of history remains elusive. We reconstructed palaeo-drainage basins under lower sea level conditions (Last Glacial Maximum) to test whether the historical connectivity between basins left an imprint on the global patterns of freshwater fish biodiversity. After controll...

  14. Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset integrates daily climate observations from approximately 30 different data sources. Version 3...

  15. The utility of the historical record in assessing future carbon budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Allen, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    It has long been known that the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most physically relevant determiner of long-lived anthropogenic climate change, with an approximately linear relationship between CO2-induced global mean surface warming and cumulative emissions. The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emission and global mean warming using observations to date. Here we show that simple regression analysis indicates that the 1.5°C carbon budget would be exhausted after nearly three decades of current emissions, substantially in excess of many estimates from Earth System Models. However, there are many reasons to be cautious about carbon budget assessments from the historical record alone. Accounting for the uncertainty in non-CO2 radiative forcing using a simple climate model and a standard optimal fingerprinting detection attribution technique gives substantial uncertainty in the contribution of CO2 warming to date, and hence the transient climate response to cumulative emissions. Additionally, the existing balance between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing may change in the future under ambitious mitigation scenarios as non-CO2 emissions become more (or less) important to global mean temperature changes. Natural unforced variability can also have a substantial impact on estimates of remaining carbon budgets. By examining all warmings of a given magnitude in both the historical record and past and future ESM simulations we quantify the impact unforced climate variability may have on estimates of remaining carbon budgets, derived as a function of estimated non-CO2 warming and future emission scenario. In summary, whilst the historical record can act as a useful test of climate models, uncertainties in the response to future cumulative emissions remain large and extrapolations of future carbon budgets from the historical record alone should be treated with caution.

  16. Open Source Tools for Assessment of Global Water Availability, Demands, and Scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.; Vernon, C. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Link, R. P.; Liu, Y.; Feng, L.; Huang, Z.; Liu, L.

    2017-12-01

    Water availability and water demands are essential factors for estimating water scarcity conditions. To reproduce historical observations and to quantify future changes in water availability and water demand, two open source tools have been developed by the JGCRI (Joint Global Change Research Institute): Xanthos and GCAM-STWD. Xanthos is a gridded global hydrologic model, designed to quantify and analyze water availability in 235 river basins. Xanthos uses a runoff generation and a river routing modules to simulate both historical and future estimates of total runoff and streamflows on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD is a spatiotemporal water disaggregation model used with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to spatially downscale global water demands for six major enduse sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, mining, and manufacturing) from the region scale to the scale of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD then temporally downscales the gridded annual global water demands to monthly results. These two tools, written in Python, can be integrated to assess global, regional or basin-scale water scarcity or water stress. Both of the tools are extensible to ensure flexibility and promote contribution from researchers that utilize GCAM and study global water use and supply.

  17. The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorpe, Livia; Andrews, Timothy

    2014-01-01

    Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day −1 , while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO 2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day −1 ) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked. (letters)

  18. Accumulation and management in global historical perspective: An introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roberts, Lissa L.

    2014-01-01

    This essay introduces a special issue dedicated to the theme ‘accumulation and management in global historical perspective’. The concepts and practices of accumulation and management are explored in ways that work to de-center the history of science and empire. Particular attention is paid to four

  19. Global imprint of historical connectivity on freshwater fish biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Murilo S; Oberdorff, Thierry; Hugueny, Bernard; Leprieur, Fabien; Jézéquel, Céline; Cornu, Jean-François; Brosse, Sébastien; Grenouillet, Gael; Tedesco, Pablo A

    2014-09-01

    The relative importance of contemporary and historical processes is central for understanding biodiversity patterns. While several studies show that past conditions can partly explain the current biodiversity patterns, the role of history remains elusive. We reconstructed palaeo-drainage basins under lower sea level conditions (Last Glacial Maximum) to test whether the historical connectivity between basins left an imprint on the global patterns of freshwater fish biodiversity. After controlling for contemporary and past environmental conditions, we found that palaeo-connected basins displayed greater species richness but lower levels of endemism and beta diversity than did palaeo-disconnected basins. Palaeo-connected basins exhibited shallower distance decay of compositional similarity, suggesting that palaeo-river connections favoured the exchange of fish species. Finally, we found that a longer period of palaeo-connection resulted in lower levels of beta diversity. These findings reveal the first unambiguous results of the role played by history in explaining the global contemporary patterns of biodiversity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  20. Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pont, Didier; Logez, M; Carrel, G; Rogers, C; Haidvogl, G

    Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

  1. NGDC/WDS Global Historical Tsunami Database, 2100 BC to present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Tsunami Database provides information on over 2,400 tsunamis from 2100 BC to the present in the the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans; and...

  2. Perspective has a strong effect on the calculation of historical contributions to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Berntsen, Terje; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie; Allen, Myles; Kallbekken, Steffen

    2017-02-01

    The politically contentious issue of calculating countries’ contributions to climate change is strongly dependent on methodological choices. Different principles can be applied for distributing efforts for reducing human-induced global warming. According to the ‘Brazilian Proposal’, industrialized countries would reduce emissions proportional to their historical contributions to warming. This proposal was based on the assumption that the political process would lead to a global top-down agreement. The Paris Agreement changed the role of historical responsibilities. Whereas the agreement refers to equity principles, differentiation of mitigation efforts is delegated to each country, as countries will submit new national contributions every five years without any international negotiation. It is likely that considerations of historical contributions and distributive fairness will continue to play a key role, but increasingly so in a national setting. Contributions to warming can be used as a background for negotiations to inform and justify positions, and may also be useful for countries’ own assessment of what constitutes reasonable and fair contributions to limiting warming. Despite the fact that the decision from COP21 explicitly rules out compensation in the context of loss and damage, it is likely that considerations of historical responsibility will also play a role in future discussions. However, methodological choices have substantial impacts on calculated contributions to warming, including rank-ordering of contributions, and thus support the view that there is no single correct answer to the question of how much each country has contributed. There are fundamental value-related and ethical questions that cannot be answered through a single set of calculated contributions. Thus, analyses of historical contributions should not present just one set of results, but rather present a spectrum of results showing how the calculated contributions vary with a

  3. Monthly Summaries of the Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-D)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly Summaries of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)-Daily is a dataset derived from GHCN-Daily. The data are produced by computing simple averages or...

  4. Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

    2014-01-01

    Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

  5. Science and technology from global and historical perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Karagözoğlu, Bahattin

    2017-01-01

    This book provides science and technology ethos to a literate person. It starts with a rather detailed treatment of basic concepts in human values, educational status and domains of education, development of science and technology and their contributions to the welfare of society. It describes ways and means of scientific progresses and technological advancements with their historical perspectives including scientific viewpoints of contributing scientists and technologists. The technical, social, and cultural dimensions are surveyed in relation to acquisition and application of science, and advantages and hindrances of technological developments. Science and Technology is currently taught as a college course in many universities with the intention to introduce topics from a global historical perspective so that the reader shall stretch his/her vision by mapping the past to the future. The book can also serve as a primary reference for such courses.

  6. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  7. Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.; Smith, S. J.; Montzka, S. A.; Launois, T.; Belviso, S.; Bopp, L.; Laine, M.

    2017-04-05

    Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a feedback for climate change, but there is still strong disagreement on the extent to which biogeochemical processes may suppress this GPP growth at the ecosystem to continental scales. The consequent uncertainty in modeling of future carbon storage by the terrestrial biosphere constitutes one of the largest unknowns in global climate projections for the next century. Here we provide a global, measurement-based estimate of historical GPP growth using long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. We interpret these records using a model that relates changes in the COS concentration to changes in its sources and sinks, the largest of which is proportional to GPP. The COS history was most consistent with simulations that assume a large historical GPP growth. Carbon-climate models that assume little to no GPP growth predicted trajectories of COS concentration over the anthropogenic era that differ from those observed. Continued COS monitoring may be useful for detecting ongoing changes in GPP while extending the ice core record to glacial cycles could provide further opportunities to evaluate earth system models.

  8. Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko

    1992-01-01

    Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  9. The future of the oceans past: towards a global marine historical research initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwerdtner Máñez, Kathleen; Holm, Poul; Blight, Louise; Coll, Marta; MacDiarmid, Alison; Ojaveer, Henn; Poulsen, Bo; Tull, Malcolm

    2014-01-01

    Historical research is playing an increasingly important role in marine sciences. Historical data are also used in policy making and marine resource management, and have helped to address the issue of shifting baselines for numerous species and ecosystems. Although many important research questions still remain unanswered, tremendous developments in conceptual and methodological approaches are expected to contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the global history of human interactions with life in the seas. Based on our experiences and knowledge from the "History of Marine Animal Populations" project, this paper identifies the emerging research topics for future historical marine research. It elaborates on concepts and tools which are expected to play a major role in answering these questions, and identifies geographical regions which deserve future attention from marine environmental historians and historical ecologists.

  10. Trends and Variability of Global Fire Emissions Due To Historical Anthropogenic Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Daniel S.; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Rabin, Sam

    2018-01-01

    Globally, fires are a major source of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, occurring on a seasonal cycle and with substantial interannual variability. To understand past trends and variability in sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon, we need quantitative estimates of global fire distributions. Here we introduce an updated version of the Fire Including Natural and Agricultural Lands model, version 2 (FINAL.2), modified to include multiday burning and enhanced fire spread rate in forest crowns. We demonstrate that the improved model reproduces the interannual variability and spatial distribution of fire emissions reported in present-day remotely sensed inventories. We use FINAL.2 to simulate historical (post-1700) fires and attribute past fire trends and variability to individual drivers: land use and land cover change, population growth, and lightning variability. Global fire emissions of carbon increase by about 10% between 1700 and 1900, reaching a maximum of 3.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1910s, followed by a decrease to about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010. The decrease in emissions from the 1910s to the present day is driven mainly by land use change, with a smaller contribution from increased fire suppression due to increased human population and is largest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Interannual variability of global fire emissions is similar in the present day as in the early historical period, but present-day wildfires would be more variable in the absence of land use change.

  11. Guidelines for the on-site assessment of historic timber structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cruz, H.; Yeomans, D.; Tsakanika, E.; Macchioni, N.; Jorissen, A.J.M.; Touza, M.; Mannucci, M.; Lourenco, P.B.

    2014-01-01

    In the scope of COST IE0601-WoodCulther (http://www.woodculther.org) it was agreed to produce Guidelines for the Assessment of Historic Timber Structures, covering the principles and possible approaches for the safety assessment of old timber structures of historical relevance, that could be used as

  12. The Philippine historical earthquakecatalog: its development, current stateand future directions

    OpenAIRE

    Bautista, M. L. P.; Bautista, B. C.

    2004-01-01

    This report will trace the development of the historical earthquake catalog of the Philippines, assess its present state and recommend future research directions. The current Philippine historical earthquake catalog is culled from various catalogs, both global and local, that were developed since the first Philippine catalog by Perrey was published in 1860. While early global catalogs gave simple mention of earthquakes in the Philippines, more focused earthquake catalogs about the Philippines...

  13. Assessing historical fish community composition using surveys, historical collection data, and species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labay, Ben; Cohen, Adam E; Sissel, Blake; Hendrickson, Dean A; Martin, F Douglas; Sarkar, Sahotra

    2011-01-01

    Accurate establishment of baseline conditions is critical to successful management and habitat restoration. We demonstrate the ability to robustly estimate historical fish community composition and assess the current status of the urbanized Barton Creek watershed in central Texas, U.S.A. Fish species were surveyed in 2008 and the resulting data compared to three sources of fish occurrence information: (i) historical records from a museum specimen database and literature searches; (ii) a nearly identical survey conducted 15 years earlier; and (iii) a modeled historical community constructed with species distribution models (SDMs). This holistic approach, and especially the application of SDMs, allowed us to discover that the fish community in Barton Creek was more diverse than the historical data and survey methods alone indicated. Sixteen native species with high modeled probability of occurrence within the watershed were not found in the 2008 survey, seven of these were not found in either survey or in any of the historical collection records. Our approach allowed us to more rigorously establish the true baseline for the pre-development fish fauna and then to more accurately assess trends and develop hypotheses regarding factors driving current fish community composition to better inform management decisions and future restoration efforts. Smaller, urbanized freshwater systems, like Barton Creek, typically have a relatively poor historical biodiversity inventory coupled with long histories of alteration, and thus there is a propensity for land managers and researchers to apply inaccurate baseline standards. Our methods provide a way around that limitation by using SDMs derived from larger and richer biodiversity databases of a broader geographic scope. Broadly applied, we propose that this technique has potential to overcome limitations of popular bioassessment metrics (e.g., IBI) to become a versatile and robust management tool for determining status of

  14. Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  15. Globalization as a System of Reason: The Historical Possibility and the Political in Pedagogical Policy and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popkewitz, Thomas S.

    2009-01-01

    Globalization is a contemporary industry that crosses academia, commerce, and governments. The hope of globalization is also the darkness of present economic woes and the homogenizing of cultures and traditions. The author's inquiry is about the historical principles of "reason" that enable "seeing," thinking, and acting as if…

  16. Importance of Sulfate Aerosol in Evaluating the Relative Contributions of Regional Emissions to the Historical Global Temperature Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andronova, N.; Schlesinger, M.

    2004-01-01

    During the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol the delegation of Brazil presented an approach for distributing the burden of emissions reductions among the Parties based on the effect of their cumulative historical emissions on the global-average near-surface temperature. The Letter to the Parties does not limit the emissions to be considered to be only greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Thus, in this paper we explore the importance of anthropogenic SOx emissions that are converted to sulfate aerosol in the atmosphere, together with the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions, in attributing historical temperature change. We use historical emissions and our simple climate model to estimate the relative contributions to global warming of the regional emissions by four Parties: OECD90, Africa and Latin America, Asia, and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Our results show that for most Parties the large warming contributed by their GHG emissions is largely offset by the correspondingly large cooling by their SOx emissions. Thus, OECD90 has become the dominant contributor to recent global warming following its large reduction in SOx emissions after 1980

  17. Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

    2010-11-01

    ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

  18. Assessing and Valuing Historical Geospatial Data for Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylak-Glassman, E.; Gallo, J.

    2016-12-01

    We will present a method for assessing the use and valuation of historical geospatial data and information products derived from Earth observations (EO). Historical data is widely used in the establishment of baseline reference cases, time-series analysis, and Earth system modeling. Historical geospatial data is used in diverse application areas, such as risk assessment in the insurance and reinsurance industry, disaster preparedness and response planning, historical demography, land-use change analysis, and paleoclimate research, among others. Establishing the current value of previously collected data, often from EO systems that are no longer operating, is difficult since the costs associated with their preservation, maintenance, and dissemination are current, while the costs associated with their original collection are sunk. Understanding their current use and value can aid in funding decisions about the data management infrastructure and workforce allocation required to maintain their availability. Using a value-tree framework to trace the application of data from EO systems, sensors, networks, and surveys, to weighted key Federal objectives, we are able to estimate relative contribution of individual EO systems, sensors, networks, and surveys to meeting those objectives. The analysis relies on a modified Delphi method to elicit relative levels of reliance on individual EO data inputs, including historical data, from subject matter experts. This results in the identification of a representative portfolio of all EO data used to meet key Federal objectives. Because historical data is collected in conjunction with all other EO data within a weighted framework, its contribution to meeting key Federal objectives can be specifically identified and evaluated in relationship to other EO data. The results of this method could be applied better understanding and projecting the long-term value of data from current and future EO systems.

  19. The global historical climatology network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, and pressure data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vose, R.S.; Schmoyer, R.L.; Peterson, T.C.; Steurer, P.M.; Heim, R.R. Jr.; Karl, T.R.; Eischeid, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the past several decades. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, many different organizations and researchers have compiled these data sets, making it confusing and time consuming for individuals to acquire the most comprehensive data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, DOE's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) established the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for as dense a network of global stations as possible. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global data base; to subject the data to rigorous quality control; and to update, enhance, and distribute the data set at regular intervals. The purpose of this paper is to describe the compilation and contents of the GHCN data base (i.e., GHCN Version 1.0)

  20. Historic Context and Building Assessments for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Built Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ullrich, R. A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sullivan, M. A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2007-09-14

    This document was prepared to support u.s. Department of Energy / National Nuclear Security Agency (DOE/NNSA) compliance with Sections 106 and 110 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is a DOE/NNSA laboratory and is engaged in determining the historic status of its properties at both its main site in Livermore, California, and Site 300, its test site located eleven miles from the main site. LLNL contracted with the authors via Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to prepare a historic context statement for properties at both sites and to provide assessments of those properties of potential historic interest. The report contains an extensive historic context statement and the assessments of individual properties and groups of properties determined, via criteria established in the context statement, to be of potential interest. The historic context statement addresses the four contexts within which LLNL falls: Local History, World War II History (WWII), Cold War History, and Post-Cold War History. Appropriate historic preservation themes relevant to LLNL's history are delineated within each context. In addition, thresholds are identified for historic significance within each of the contexts based on the explication and understanding of the Secretary of the Interior's Guidelines for determining eligibility for the National Register of Historic Places. The report identifies specific research areas and events in LLNL's history that are of interest and the portions of the built environment in which they occurred. Based on that discussion, properties of potential interest are identified and assessments of them are provided. Twenty individual buildings and three areas of potential historic interest were assessed. The final recommendation is that, of these, LLNL has five individual historic buildings, two sets of historic objects, and two historic districts eligible for the National Register. All are

  1. SEARCHING FOR URBAN PATTERNS; AN ASSESSMENT OF HISTORIC EDGES AND ITS SURROUNDING CONTEXT: HISTORIC CAIRO AS A CASE STUDY

    OpenAIRE

    Nabil Mohareb

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyzes the urban edges of historic cities. Managing these edges would enhance the success of any intervention projects inside the historic fabric. The paper develops and tests a method of analytical assessment framework that is applicable for quantitative analysis within an urban edge. It is capable of measuring micro and macro levels of analysis of historic urban edges with reference to their spatial configuration. In addition, the paper searches for repetitive spatial configura...

  2. Historical data summary of the systematic assessment of licensee performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allenspach, F.

    1993-02-01

    The Historical Data Summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) is produced periodically by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This summary provides the results of the assessment for each facility by NRC region and is further divided into the following-sections: Section 1 presents the most recent SALP report ratings for facilities in operation and under construction. Section 2 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each operating facility. Section 3 for each facility under construction. For historical purposes, past construction ratings for facilities that recently have been licensed also are listed in Section 3

  3. Historical data summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramey-Smith, A.M.

    1987-10-01

    The Historical Data Summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) is produced periodically by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This summary provides the results of the assessment for each facility by NRC region and is further divided into the following three sections: the most recent SALP report ratings for facilities under construction and in operation, a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each operating facility, a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each facility under construction. For historical purposes, past construction SALP ratings for facilities that recently have been licensed also are listed

  4. Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovering, Jessica R.; Yip, Arthur; Nordhaus, Ted

    2016-01-01

    The existing literature on the construction costs of nuclear power reactors has focused almost exclusively on trends in construction costs in only two countries, the United States and France, and during two decades, the 1970s and 1980s. These analyses, Koomey and Hultman (2007); Grubler (2010), and Escobar-Rangel and Lévêque (2015), study only 26% of reactors built globally between 1960 and 2010, providing an incomplete picture of the economic evolution of nuclear power construction. This study curates historical reactor-specific overnight construction cost (OCC) data that broaden the scope of study substantially, covering the full cost history for 349 reactors in the US, France, Canada, West Germany, Japan, India, and South Korea, encompassing 58% of all reactors built globally. We find that trends in costs have varied significantly in magnitude and in structure by era, country, and experience. In contrast to the rapid cost escalation that characterized nuclear construction in the United States, we find evidence of much milder cost escalation in many countries, including absolute cost declines in some countries and specific eras. Our new findings suggest that there is no inherent cost escalation trend associated with nuclear technology. - Highlights: •Comprehensive analysis of nuclear power construction cost experience. •Coverage for early and recent reactors in seven countries. •International comparisons and re-evaluation of learning. •Cost trends vary by country and era; some experience cost stability or decline.

  5. Science and Society: Public History in the Context of Historical Culture of the Globalization Era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorina P. Repina

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the XIX century known as the „historical age”, a high degree of trust to history and social prestige of historical science relied on the entrenched in public consciousness the idea of continuity of historical development of a human civilization and, respectively, of the unique opportunities of the use of the past experience as a means to solve the problems of the present and to build „the bright future”. But the understanding of the dramatic experi-ence of the XX century undermined the belief in the “use of history”, and this situation has been greatly aggravated with intensification of the processes of globalization on the bor-der of XX and XXI centuries. The problems of interaction between “academic (professional history” and the wide public in the concrete societies and the changes in their relations in the context of deep social transformations proved to take place at the center of many re-searchers’ attention. Public history is purposefully overcoming the typical for historical science of the XX century alienation from „the uninitiated”; it strives to restore the interest of the consumer to the historians’ production, to propagate professional standards, histor-ical knowledge and proper understanding of the specific character of “historian’s craft” among the wide circles of the non-professionals.

  6. An integrated approach to historical population assessment of the great whales: case of the New Zealand southern right whale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Jennifer A; Carroll, Emma L; Smith, Tim D; Zerbini, Alexandre N; Patenaude, Nathalie J; Baker, C Scott

    2016-03-01

    Accurate estimation of historical abundance provides an essential baseline for judging the recovery of the great whales. This is particularly challenging for whales hunted prior to twentieth century modern whaling, as population-level catch records are often incomplete. Assessments of whale recovery using pre-modern exploitation indices are therefore rare, despite the intensive, global nature of nineteenth century whaling. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) were particularly exploited: slow swimmers with strong fidelity to sheltered calving bays, the species made predictable and easy targets. Here, we present the first integrated population-level assessment of the whaling impact and pre-exploitation abundance of a right whale, the New Zealand southern right whale (E. australis). In this assessment, we use a Bayesian population dynamics model integrating multiple data sources: nineteenth century catches, genetic constraints on bottleneck size and individual sightings histories informing abundance and trend. Different catch allocation scenarios are explored to account for uncertainty in the population's offshore distribution. From a pre-exploitation abundance of 28 800-47 100 whales, nineteenth century hunting reduced the population to approximately 30-40 mature females between 1914 and 1926. Today, it stands at less than 12% of pre-exploitation abundance. Despite the challenges of reconstructing historical catches and population boundaries, conservation efforts of historically exploited species benefit from targets for ecological restoration.

  7. How to Quantify Human-environment Interactions in the Past: A Global Historical Land Use Data Set for the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein Goldewijk, K.

    2015-12-01

    Land use plays an important role in the climate system. Many ecosystem processes are directly or indirectly climate driven, and together with human driven land use changes, they determine how the land surface will evolve through time. To assess the effects of land cover changes on the climate system, models are required which are capable of simulating interactions between the involved components of the Earth system. Since driving forces for global environmental change differ among regions, a geographically (spatially) explicit modeling approach is called for, so that it can be incorporated in global and regional (climate and/or biophysical) change models in order to enhance our understanding of the underlying processes and thus improving future projections.Some researchers suggest that mankind has shifted from living in the Holocene (~emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (~humans capable of changing the Earth' atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land use changes (e.g. the Black Plague in the 14th century and the aftermath of the Colombian Exchange in the 16th century), some believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time. There are still many uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge about the importance of land use (change) in the global biogeochemical cycle, and it is crucial that researchers from other disciplines are involved in decreasing the uncertainties.Thus, integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleo-environmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. Here I present a tool for such long term global change studies; it is the latest update (v 3.2) of the History Database of the Global

  8. Global ex-situ crop diversity conservation and the Svalbard Global Seed Vault: assessing the current status.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ola T Westengen

    Full Text Available Ex-situ conservation of crop diversity is a global concern, and the development of an efficient and sustainable conservation system is a historic priority recognized in international law and policy. We assess the completeness of the safety duplication collection in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault with respect to data on the world's ex-situ collections as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Currently, 774,601 samples are deposited at Svalbard by 53 genebanks. We estimate that more than one third of the globally distinct accessions of 156 crop genera stored in genebanks as orthodox seeds are conserved in the Seed Vault. The numbers of safety duplicates of Triticum (wheat, Sorghum (sorghum, Pennisetum (pearl millet, Eleusine (finger millet, Cicer (chickpea and Lens (lentil exceed 50% of the estimated numbers of distinct accessions in global ex-situ collections. The number of accessions conserved globally generally reflects importance for food production, but there are significant gaps in the safety collection at Svalbard in some genera of high importance for food security in tropical countries, such as Amaranthus (amaranth, Chenopodium (quinoa, Eragrostis (teff and Abelmoschus (okra. In the 29 food-crop genera with the largest number of accessions stored globally, an average of 5.5 out of the ten largest collections is already represented in the Seed Vault collection or is covered by existing deposit agreements. The high coverage of ITPGRFA Annex 1 crops and of those crops for which there is a CGIAR mandate in the current Seed Vault collection indicates that existence of international policies and institutions are important determinants for accessions to be safety duplicated at Svalbard. As a back-up site for the global conservation system, the Seed Vault plays not only a practical but also a symbolic role for enhanced integration and cooperation for conservation of crop diversity.

  9. Global ex-situ crop diversity conservation and the Svalbard Global Seed Vault: assessing the current status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westengen, Ola T; Jeppson, Simon; Guarino, Luigi

    2013-01-01

    Ex-situ conservation of crop diversity is a global concern, and the development of an efficient and sustainable conservation system is a historic priority recognized in international law and policy. We assess the completeness of the safety duplication collection in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault with respect to data on the world's ex-situ collections as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Currently, 774,601 samples are deposited at Svalbard by 53 genebanks. We estimate that more than one third of the globally distinct accessions of 156 crop genera stored in genebanks as orthodox seeds are conserved in the Seed Vault. The numbers of safety duplicates of Triticum (wheat), Sorghum (sorghum), Pennisetum (pearl millet), Eleusine (finger millet), Cicer (chickpea) and Lens (lentil) exceed 50% of the estimated numbers of distinct accessions in global ex-situ collections. The number of accessions conserved globally generally reflects importance for food production, but there are significant gaps in the safety collection at Svalbard in some genera of high importance for food security in tropical countries, such as Amaranthus (amaranth), Chenopodium (quinoa), Eragrostis (teff) and Abelmoschus (okra). In the 29 food-crop genera with the largest number of accessions stored globally, an average of 5.5 out of the ten largest collections is already represented in the Seed Vault collection or is covered by existing deposit agreements. The high coverage of ITPGRFA Annex 1 crops and of those crops for which there is a CGIAR mandate in the current Seed Vault collection indicates that existence of international policies and institutions are important determinants for accessions to be safety duplicated at Svalbard. As a back-up site for the global conservation system, the Seed Vault plays not only a practical but also a symbolic role for enhanced integration and cooperation for conservation of crop diversity.

  10. Historical data summary of the systematic assessment of licensee performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allenspach, F.

    1992-08-01

    The Historical Data Summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) is produced periodically by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This summary provides the results of the assessment for each facility by NRC region and is further divided into the following-sections: Section I presents the most recent SALE report ratings for facilities in operation and under construction. Section 2 presents a chronological listing of all SALE report ratings for each operating facility. Section 3 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each facility under construction. For historical purposes, past construction ratings for facilities that recently have been licensed also are listed in Section 3

  11. Historical data summary of the systematic assessment of licensee performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allenspach, F.

    1991-08-01

    The Historical Data Summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) is produced periodically by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This summary provides the results of the assessment for each facility by NRC region and is further divided into the following sections: Section 1 presents the most recent SALP report ratings for facilities in operation and under construction. Section 2 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each operating facility. Section 3 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each facility under construction. For historical purposes, past construction ratings for facilities that recently have been licensed also are listed in Section 3

  12. Historical data summary of the systematic assessment of licensee performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allenspach, F.; Wharton, R.

    1990-08-01

    The Historical Data Summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) is produced periodically by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This summary provides the results of the assessment for each facility by NRC region and is further divided into the following sections: Section 1 presents the most recent SALP report ratings for facilities in operation and under construction. Section 2 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each operating facility. Section 3 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each facility under construction. For historical purposes, past construction ratings for facilities that recently have been licensed also are listed in Section 3

  13. Historical data summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allenspach, F.

    1993-08-01

    The Historical Data Summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) is produced periodically by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This summary provides the results of the assessment for each facility by NRC region and is further divided into the following sections: Section 1 presents the most recent SALP report ratings for facilities in operation and under construction. Section 2 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each operating facility. Section 3 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each facility under construction. For historical purposes, past construction ratings for facilities that recently have been licensed also are listed in Section 3

  14. Historical data summary of the systematic assessment of licensee performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allenspach, F.

    1992-02-01

    The Historical Data Summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) is produced periodically by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This summary provides the results of the assessment for each facility by NRC region and is further divided into the following sections: Section 1 presents the most recent SALP report ratings for facilities in operation and under construction. Section 2 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each operating facility. Section 3 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each facility under construction. For historical purposes, past construction ratings for facilities that recently have been licensed also are listed in Section 3

  15. Historical data summary of the systematic assessment of licensee performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-05-01

    The Historical Data Summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) is produced periodically by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This summary provides the results of the assessment for each facility by NRC region and is further divided into the following three sections: Section 1 presents the most recent SALP report ratings for facilities under construction and in operation. Section 2 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each operating facility. Section 3 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each facility under construction. For historical purposes, past construction SALP ratings for facilities that recently have been licensed also are listed in Section 3

  16. Historical data summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allenspach, F.; Nease, R.

    1990-02-01

    The Historical Data Summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) is produced periodically by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This summary provides the results of the assessment for each facility by NRC region and is further divided into the following sections: Section 1 presents the most recent SALP report ratings for facilities in operation and under construction. Section 2 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each operating facility. Section 3 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each facility under construction. For historical purposes, past construction ratings for facilities that recently have been licensed also are listed in Section 3

  17. Historical data summary of the systematic assessment of licensee performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allenspach, F.

    1991-02-01

    The Historical Data Summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) is produced periodically by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This summary provides the results of the assessment for each facility by NRC region and is further divided into the following sections: Section 1 presents the most recent SALP report ratings for facilities in operation and under construction. Section 2 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each operating facility. Section 3 presents a chronological listing of all SALP report ratings for each facility under construction. For historical purposes, past construction ratings for facilities that recently have been licensed also are listed in Section 3

  18. Global assessment of coastal aquifer state and its vulnerability respect to Sea Water Intrusion. Application to several Mediterranean Coastal Aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Leticia; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Morell, Ignacio

    2017-04-01

    In this research we propose a method for a global assessment of coastal aquifer state and its vulnerability to Sea Water Intrusion (SWI). It is based on two indices, the MART index, which summarize the global significance of the SWI phenomenon, and the L_GALDIT for a lumped assessment of the vulnerability to SWI. Both of them can be useful as a tool to assess coastal groundwater bodies in risk of not achieving good status in accordance with the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000) and to identify possible management alternative to reduce existing impacts. They can be obtained even from a reduced number of data (in the MART case only depend on the geometry and available aquifer state data) with simple calculations, which have been implemented in a general GIS tool that can be easily applied to other case studies. The MART index in an aquifer is related with the total mass of chloride in the aquifer due to sea water intrusion and can be obtained by simple linear operations of volume and concentrations that can be deduced from a schematic conceptual cross-section approach (orthogonal to the shore line) defined to summarize the intrusion volume in the aquifer. At a certain historical time, this representative aquifer cross-section can be defined in a systhematic way from the aquifer geometry, the specific yield, and the hydraulic head and chloride concentration fields that can be deduced from the available information by using appropriate interpolation methods. Following the proposed procedure we will finally obtain a summary of the historical significance of the SWI in an aquifer at different spatial resolution: 3D salinity concentration maps, 2D representative conceptual cross-section of intrusion and the MART lumped significance index. The historical evolution of the MART can be employed to perform a global assessment of the resilience and trends of global significance of the SWI in an aquifer. It can be useful to compare the significance of intrusion problems in

  19. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  20. The United Nations and Global Public Goods: Historical Contributions and Future Challenges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce Jenks

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Published by Palgrave MacmillanThis chapter explores the thesis that the United Nations’ (UN most important contribution to the production of global public goods has been its role in creating the space and capacity to generate shared values. Starting with the UN Charter itself, the chapter traces the evolution of this contribution through different historical phases. It analyses the impact of globalisation on the role of the UN; in particular it identifies the quality of porousness as a product of globalisation which is critical to understanding the current challenges faced by the UN as well as central to the global public goods agenda. Through this lens the author briefly reviews the evolution of the UN’s role in the fields of peace and security, human rights and development cooperation. He concludes by identifying eight levers for change that will determine the UN’s ability to contribute significantly to the global public goods: the generation of norms and shared values, the quality of leadership, improved governance, innovative financing, institutional realignment, the further consolidation of legal instruments, focus, and the power of networks.

  1. A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs, which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment, and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2, withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

  2. Assessment of Global Functioning in Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Utility of the Developmental Disability-Child Global Assessment Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Susan W.; Smith, Laura A.; Schry, Amie R.

    2014-01-01

    Assessment of global functioning is an important consideration in treatment outcome research; yet, there is little guidance on its evidence-based assessment for children with autism spectrum disorders. This study investigated the utility and validity of clinician-rated global functioning using the Developmental Disability-Child Global Assessment…

  3. Democratização da governança global: perspectivas históricas mundiais Democratizing global governance: world historical perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Chase-Dunn

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo examina a controversa noção de democracia global. O texto apresenta uma perspectiva histórica mundial da evolução da governança global - como a estrutura política do sistema-mundo evoluiu ao longo dos últimos séculos - e analisa movimentos sociais contemporâneos que buscam democratizar as instituições de governança global. Argumenta-se que os que desejam democratizar a governança global devem assumir o repto de ajudar a promover a construção de um estado mundial globalmente multilateral para fazer frente aos desafios que se colocarão à humanidade no século 21. Movimentos sociais transnacionais e estados nacionais semiperiféricos progressistas são vistos como os agentes que irão desafiar os poderes constituídos e conduzir a humanidade rumo a uma comunidade global democrática e coletivamente racional nas próximas décadas.This article examines the contested idea of global democracy. It presents a world historical view of the evolution of global governance - how the political structure of the world-system has evolved of over the past several centuries - and it examines contemporary social movements that are seeking to democratize global governance institutions. It is argued that those who want to democratize global governance must take up the problem of helping to further construct a global multilateral world state in order that the challenges that humanity has created for itself may be met in a collectively rational, sustainable and humane manner in the 21st century. Transnational social movements and progressive semiperipheral national-states are seen as the agents that will challenge the powers that be and move humanity closer to a democratic and collectively rational global commonwealth in the next several decades.

  4. Economists, capitalists, and the making of globalization: North American free trade in comparative-historical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbrother, Malcolm

    2014-03-01

    Why did globalization happen? Current explanations point to a variety of conditions under which states have made the free market policy changes driving international economic integration since the 1980s. Such accounts disagree, however, about the key actors involved. This article provides a reconciliation, showing how two different combinations of actors, and two different political economic pathways, have led to globalization in recent decades. In developed countries, mobilization by business has been central; elsewhere, technocrats both constrained and empowered by international finance have pursued globalization more independently of business. In both contexts, economists' technical authority has helped legitimate liberalization, despite the limited diffusion of their ideas. The article validates and elaborates this model using a comparative-historical study of how the United States, Canada, and Mexico proposed, negotiated, and ratified agreements for free trade in North America.

  5. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  6. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  7. Medan City: Informality and the Historical Global City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudarmadji, N.; Tyaghita, B.; Astuti, P. T.; Etleen, D.

    2018-05-01

    As projected by UN that two-thirds of Indonesia’s population will live in urban areas by 2050, rapid urbanization is happening in Indonesian cities. Initial research on eight Indonesian Cities (which includes Medan, Jatinegara, Bandung, Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Manado) by Tunas Nusa Foundation since 2012 shows that urbanization of each city has happened throughout history creating cultural, economic, and environmental networks that are distinct from one city to another. While the networks remain until today and continuously shapes the urban agglomeration pattern, not all parts of the city could undergo subsequent development that confirms the existing pattern, leading to the creation informality. Nor could it make future planning that comprehends the nature of its integrated urban dynamic beyond its current administrative authority. In this paper, we would like to share our study for Medan, North Sumatra as it shows a portrait of a city with a long relationship to a global network since the Maritime trade era. Medan has become home to many ethnic groups which have sailed and migrated as part of a global economic agenda creating a strong economic network between port cities along the Malacca Strait. The city has kept its role in the global economic network until today, to name a few, becoming the frontier for the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle. While we celebrate Medan’s potential to become a global city with major infrastructure development as well as cultural assets as its advantage in the future, we argue that microscale cohesion supported by government policy in agreed planning documents are fundamental for the city to thrive amidst the challenges it is facing. Yet, these cultural assets, as well as micro scale cohesion in Medan City today, are still undermined. Thus, informality in Medan exists as result of ignorance and marginalization of certain socio-cultural groups, abandoning places and identity, as well as the

  8. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produ......-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.......The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce...... similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries...

  9. Development of new historical global Nitrogen fertilizer map and the evaluation of their impacts on terrestrial N cycling and the evaluation of their impacts on terrestrial N cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishina, K.; Ito, A.; Hayashi, S.

    2015-12-01

    The use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer was rapidly growing up after the birth of Haber-Bosch process in the early 20th century. The recent N loading derived from these sources on terrestrial ecosystems was estimated 2 times higher than biogenic N fixation in terrestrial ecosystems (Gruber et al., 2009). However, there are still large uncertainties in cumulative N impacts on terrestrial impact at global scale. In this study, to assess historical N impacts at global scale, we made a new global N fertilizer input map, which was a spatial-temporal explicit map (during 1960-2010) and considered the fraction of NH4+ and NO3- in the N fertilizer inputs. With the developed N fertilizer map, we evaluated historical N20 cycling changes by land-use changes and N depositions in N cycling using ecosystem model 'VISIT'. Prior to the downscaling processes for global N fertilizer map, we applied the statistical data imputation to FAOSTAT data due to there existing many missing data especially in developing countries. For the data imputation, we used multiple data imputation method proposed by Honaker & King (2010). The statistics of various types of synthetic fertilizer consumption are available in FAOSTAT, which can be sorted by the content of NH4+ and NO3-, respectively. To downscaling the country by country N fertilizer consumptions data to the 0.5˚x 0.5˚ grid-based map, we used historical land-use map in Earthstat (Rumankutty et al., 1999). Before the assignment of N fertilizer in each grid, we weighted the double cropping regions to be more N fertilizer input on to these regions. Using M3-Crops Data (Monfreda et al., 2008), we picked up the dominant cropping species in each grid cell. After that, we used Crop Calendar in SAGE dataset (Sacks et al., 2010) and determined schedule of N fertilizer input in each grid cell using dominant crop calendar. Base fertilizer was set to be 7 days before transplanting and second fertilizer to be 30 days after base fertilizer application

  10. The Philippine historical earthquakecatalog: its development, current stateand future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. C. Bautista

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available This report will trace the development of the historical earthquake catalog of the Philippines, assess its present state and recommend future research directions. The current Philippine historical earthquake catalog is culled from various catalogs, both global and local, that were developed since the first Philippine catalog by Perrey was published in 1860. While early global catalogs gave simple mention of earthquakes in the Philippines, more focused earthquake catalogs about the Philippines gave more explicit descriptions of earthquake accounts and adopted descriptions by local historians. Over the years, various historians and seismologists continued to compile their catalogs whose contents depended on the author?s perspectives and purposes. These works varied from simple listings to others including detailed descriptions. It was only recently that an attempt made to parameterize the magnitudes and epicenters of Philippine historical earthquakes using magnitude-felt area relations was done. A more detailed catalog, however, is now underway that will show details of intensity distribution for each significant historical earthquake. By comparing the historical catalog with the recent catalog and assuming that the recent catalog is complete, we find that there are still a substantial amount of historical earthquakes that needs to be reviewed and located. Possible sources of new information are local libraries, museums and archives in the Philippines, Spain and other Southeast Asian countries to which the country was in contact with during historical times.

  11. Global Lunar Gravity Field Determination Using Historical and Recent Tracking Data in Preparation for SELENE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goossens, S.; Matsumoto, K.; Namiki, N.; Hanada, H.; Iwata, T.; Tsuruta, S.; Kawano, N.; Sasaki, S.

    2006-12-01

    In the near future, a number of satellite missions are planned to be launched to the Moon. These missions include initiatives by China, India, the USA, as well as the Japanese SELENE mission. These missions will gather a wealth of lunar data which will improve the knowledge of the Moon. One of the main topics to be addressed will be the lunar gravity field. Especially SELENE will contribute to improving the knowledge of the gravity field, by applying 4-way Doppler tracking between the main satellite and a relay satellite, and by applying a separate differential VLBI experiment. These will improve the determination of the global gravity field, especially over the far side and at the lower degrees (mostly for degrees lower than 30), as is shown by extensive simulations of the SELENE mission. This work focuses on the determination of the global lunar gravity field from all available tracking data to this date. In preparation for the SELENE mission, analysis using Lunar Prospector tracking data, as well as Clementine data and historical data from the Apollo and Lunar Orbiter projects is being conducted at NAOJ. Some SMART-1 tracking data are also included. The goal is to combine the good-quality data from the existing lunar missions up to this date with the tracking data from SELENE in order to derive a new lunar gravity field model. The focus therefore currently lies on processing the available data and extracting lunar gravity field information from them. It is shown that the historical tracking data contribute especially to the lower degrees of the global lunar gravity field model. Due to the large gap in tracking data coverage over the far side for the historical data, the higher degrees are almost fully determined by the a priori information in the form of a Kaula rule. The combination with SELENE data is thus expected to improve the estimate for the lower degrees even further, including coverage of the far side. Since historical tracking data are from orbits with

  12. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  13. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

    2017-04-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine

  14. SEARCHING FOR URBAN PATTERNS; AN ASSESSMENT OF HISTORIC EDGES AND ITS SURROUNDING CONTEXT: HISTORIC CAIRO AS A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil Mohareb

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the urban edges of historic cities. Managing these edges would enhance the success of any intervention projects inside the historic fabric. The paper develops and tests a method of analytical assessment framework that is applicable for quantitative analysis within an urban edge. It is capable of measuring micro and macro levels of analysis of historic urban edges with reference to their spatial configuration. In addition, the paper searches for repetitive spatial configuration patterns. The main case study is Historic Cairo. The paper reveals that there are apparent patterns of cause and effect of both spatial configurations and related activities along the urban edges, forming different type of barriers. The paper discovers the repetitive spatial, architectural, and land-use patterns that exist on various edges. These patterns enable the possibility of learning and acquiring from other successful interventions that have been applied to similar patterns, without being limited to cultural or contextual differences.

  15. The Adaptation Gap Report. Towards Global Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2017-01-01

    The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, established the global goal on adaptation of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development and ensuring an adequate adaptation response in the context...... Change (UNFCCC) to prepare for the implementation of the Paris Agreement. In contrast to previous Adaptation Gap Reports, the 2017 report focuses on issues relating to frameworks, comprising concepts, methodologies and data, rather than on assessing a particular dimension of the adaptation gap. Future...... extensive external review. The Paris Agreement’s global goal on adaptation provides a new starting point and impetus for assessing progress on adaptation at the global level, but additional information is required for assessing such progress. The global goal on adaptation provides a collective vision...

  16. Modelling assessment of regional groundwater contamination due to historic smelter emissions of heavy metals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grift, B. van der; Griffioen, J.

    2008-01-01

    Historic emissions from ore smelters typically cause regional soil contamination. We developed a modelling approach to assess the impact of such contamination on groundwater and surface water load, coupling unsaturated zone leaching modelling with 3D groundwater transport modelling. Both historic

  17. Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

    2017-12-01

    Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for

  18. Using the CLM Crop Model to assess the impacts of changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Geographic Distribution on Historical and Future Crop Yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P.

    2015-12-01

    Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate

  19. Making historic loss data comparable over time and place

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichner, Jan; Steuer, Markus; Löw, Petra

    2017-04-01

    When utilizing historic loss data for present day risk assessment, it is necessary to make the data comparable over time and place. To achieve this, the assessment of costs from natural hazard events requires consistent and homogeneous methodologies for loss estimation as well as a robust treatment of loss data to estimate and/or reduce distorting effects due to a temporal bias in the reporting of small-scale loss events. Here we introduce Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE loss database and present a novel methodology of peril-specific normalization of the historic losses (to account for socio-economic growth of assets over time), and we introduce a metric of severity classification (called CatClass) that allows for a global comparison of impact severity across countries of different stages of economic development.

  20. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an EMIC intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.

    2012-01-01

    Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE......, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows considerable synergy between land-use change and CO2... and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land-use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures...

  1. Global Mercury Assessment 2013

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    mercury pollution. This summary report and the accompanying. Technical Background Report for the Global. Mercury Assessment 2013 are developed in response to Decision 25/5, paragraph ... The use of different pollution control technologies in different ...... vegetation, snow, freshwater, and seawater. One of the largest ...

  2. Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

    2017-09-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  4. From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miina Porkka

    Full Text Available Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965-2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (15% of dietary energy supply increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.

  5. Five-Year NRHP Re-Evaluation of Historic Buildings Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ullrich, R A; Heidecker, K R

    2011-09-12

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) 'Draft Programmatic Agreement among the Department of Energy and the California State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Operation of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory' requires a review and re-evaluation of the eligibility of laboratory properties for the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) every five years. The original evaluation was published in 2005; this report serves as the first five-year re-evaluation. This re-evaluation includes consideration of changes within LLNL to management, to mission, and to the built environment. it also determines the status of those buildings, objects, and districts that were recommended as NRHP-eligible in the 2005 report. Buildings that were omitted from the earlier building list, those that have reached 50 years of age since the original assessment, and new buildings are also addressed in the re-evaluation.

  6. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  7. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Supit, Iwan; Wolf, Joost

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects,

  8. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winsemius, H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/14749799X; Jongman, B.; Ward, P.J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-01-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and

  9. Assessment of CMIP5 historical simulations of rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liu, Jiandong; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

    2018-05-01

    We present preliminary analyses of the historical (1986-2005) climate simulations of a ten-member subset of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models over Southeast Asia. The objective of this study was to evaluate the general circulation models' performance in simulating the mean state of climate over this less-studied climate vulnerable region, with a focus on precipitation. Results indicate that most of the models are unable to reproduce the observed state of climate over Southeast Asia. Though the multi-model ensemble mean is a better representation of the observations, the uncertainties in the individual models are far high. There is no particular model that performed well in simulating the historical climate of Southeast Asia. There seems to be no significant influence of the spatial resolutions of the models on the quality of simulation, despite the view that higher resolution models fare better. The study results emphasize on careful consideration of models for impact studies and the need to improve the next generation of models in their ability to simulate regional climates better.

  10. Developing a Global Database of Historic Flood Events to Support Machine Learning Flood Prediction in Google Earth Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Slayback, D. A.; Kuhn, C.; Doyle, C.

    2016-12-01

    There is an increasing need to understand flood vulnerability as the societal and economic effects of flooding increases. Risk models from insurance companies and flood models from hydrologists must be calibrated based on flood observations in order to make future predictions that can improve planning and help societies reduce future disasters. Specifically, to improve these models both traditional methods of flood prediction from physically based models as well as data-driven techniques, such as machine learning, require spatial flood observation to validate model outputs and quantify uncertainty. A key dataset that is missing for flood model validation is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Currently, the most advanced database of historical flood extent is hosted and maintained at the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) that has catalogued 4320 floods (1985-2015) but has only mapped 5% of these floods. We are addressing this data gap by mapping the inventory of floods in the DFO database to create a first-of- its-kind, comprehensive, global and historical geospatial database of flood events. To do so, we combine water detection algorithms on MODIS and Landsat 5,7 and 8 imagery in Google Earth Engine to map discrete flood events. The created database will be available in the Earth Engine Catalogue for download by country, region, or time period. This dataset can be leveraged for new data-driven hydrologic modeling using machine learning algorithms in Earth Engine's highly parallelized computing environment, and we will show examples for New York and Senegal.

  11. Hungary Embracing Globalization: The Challenge Of Competitiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Laszlo Csaba

    2007-01-01

    This think piece is an attempt to survey the evolution of competitiveness in a small open economy under the angle of costs and benefits of globalization. First a historical survey assesses the road leading to the present sage of transnationalization. Then a situation assessment is presented, followed by a survey of challenges and factors of competitiveness. Finally some general lessons are listed, without attempting to be exhaustive.

  12. Assessing the decennial, reassessing the global

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manners, Ian James

    2013-01-01

    in global politics by rethinking the nature of power and actorness in a globalizing, multilateralizing and multipolarizing era. To do this, the article assesses the past decade in terms of normative power engagement, internationalization and comparison. The article then argues that rethinking power...... and actorness involves reassessing global theory and pouvoir normatif in action. The article concludes by setting out three ways of developing the NPA in its second decade: macro-approach, meso-characterization and micro-analysis. Following the suggestion of Emanuel Adler, Barry Buzan and Tim Dunne, the article...

  13. A global call for action to include gender in research impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovseiko, Pavel V; Greenhalgh, Trisha; Adam, Paula; Grant, Jonathan; Hinrichs-Krapels, Saba; Graham, Kathryn E; Valentine, Pamela A; Sued, Omar; Boukhris, Omar F; Al Olaqi, Nada M; Al Rahbi, Idrees S; Dowd, Anne-Maree; Bice, Sara; Heiden, Tamika L; Fischer, Michael D; Dopson, Sue; Norton, Robyn; Pollitt, Alexandra; Wooding, Steven; Balling, Gert V; Jakobsen, Ulla; Kuhlmann, Ellen; Klinge, Ineke; Pololi, Linda H; Jagsi, Reshma; Smith, Helen Lawton; Etzkowitz, Henry; Nielsen, Mathias W; Carrion, Carme; Solans-Domènech, Maite; Vizcaino, Esther; Naing, Lin; Cheok, Quentin H N; Eckelmann, Baerbel; Simuyemba, Moses C; Msiska, Temwa; Declich, Giovanna; Edmunds, Laurel D; Kiparoglou, Vasiliki; Buchan, Alison M J; Williamson, Catherine; Lord, Graham M; Channon, Keith M; Surender, Rebecca; Buchan, Alastair M

    2016-07-19

    Global investment in biomedical research has grown significantly over the last decades, reaching approximately a quarter of a trillion US dollars in 2010. However, not all of this investment is distributed evenly by gender. It follows, arguably, that scarce research resources may not be optimally invested (by either not supporting the best science or by failing to investigate topics that benefit women and men equitably). Women across the world tend to be significantly underrepresented in research both as researchers and research participants, receive less research funding, and appear less frequently than men as authors on research publications. There is also some evidence that women are relatively disadvantaged as the beneficiaries of research, in terms of its health, societal and economic impacts. Historical gender biases may have created a path dependency that means that the research system and the impacts of research are biased towards male researchers and male beneficiaries, making it inherently difficult (though not impossible) to eliminate gender bias. In this commentary, we - a group of scholars and practitioners from Africa, America, Asia and Europe - argue that gender-sensitive research impact assessment could become a force for good in moving science policy and practice towards gender equity. Research impact assessment is the multidisciplinary field of scientific inquiry that examines the research process to maximise scientific, societal and economic returns on investment in research. It encompasses many theoretical and methodological approaches that can be used to investigate gender bias and recommend actions for change to maximise research impact. We offer a set of recommendations to research funders, research institutions and research evaluators who conduct impact assessment on how to include and strengthen analysis of gender equity in research impact assessment and issue a global call for action.

  14. Assessing bias associated with geocoding of historical residence in epidemiology research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daikwon Han

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The use of geocoded historical residence as proxy for retrospective assessment of exposure in early life is increasing in epidemiological studies of chronic health outcomes. Dealing with historical residence poses challenges, primarily due to higher uncertainties associated with data collection and processing. A possible source of bias is connected with the exclusion of subjects, who cannot, for various reasons, be geocoded. We evaluated the potential bias that may arise due to incomplete geocoding, using birth residence data collected as part of a population-based case-control study of breast cancer in western New York state. We found that geocoded and non-geocoded populations did not differ in the distribution of most risk factors compared, and that the geocoding status did not modify the spatial patterns of the study populations. However, the results emphasize the need for epidemiological studies to consider the potential biases that may be introduced by geocoding of historical residence when investigating retrospectively chronic disease and early-life exposure.

  15. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-05-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM

  16. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. C. Winsemius

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population. The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE. We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from

  17. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2017-11-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global

  18. Assessment of historical and cultural heritage in Lubensky district of Poltava region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Марина Cторчак

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article assesses available historical and cultural heritage of Lubny district, Poltava region. Among the considered assessment methods of the historical and cultural heritage K. A. Polyvach’s method has been chosen for the study, as it allows to assess the security of an administrative district. According to this method, the provision of rural districts according to the following indicators was carried out: the number of objects and their division into types; concentration of objects calculated on the area of the territory; a modified concentration index. The latter takes into account not only the area, but also the population. The coefficient of objects’ localization, showing the largest number of cultural monuments and the smallest area of rural councils has also been indicated. In Lubensky district, archeological monuments dominate, namely, the fraternal graves and memorial plaques to the fallen heroes of warriors. The disadvantage of this area is the lack of fixed objects of science and technology that would act as a tourist resource. The largest number of historical and cultural heritage objects is concentrated in Vovchytsya, Kalaydenska, Mgarska and Mykhnivska village councils, and the smallest number is in Shershnevsky, Matskiv and Okipsky. In general, it can be said that there are 102 objects in Lubensky area - this is not enough, if you also take into account that their placement is not uniform. In addition to the lowest level of livelihood in Shershnivska, Okipa, Berezivka, Tyshkivska, Vyshchebulatka, Matskivska, Lytvyakivska and Novorikhivska settlement councils there are only monuments of one category, which diminishes their interest among tourists. In the area the most promising for the development of tourism are Mgarska, Vovchytska and Kalaydentsi rural councils, because within them there is an opportunity to build complex tourist routes and, in general, to develop tourist infrastructure, not only because of the large

  19. Linking global scenarios to national assessments: Experiences from the Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda L. Langner; Peter J. Ince

    2012-01-01

    The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment provides a nationally consistent analysis of the status and trends of the Nation's renewable forest resources. A global scenario approach was taken for the 2010 RPA Assessment to provide a shared world view of potential futures. The RPA Assessment scenarios were linked to the global scenarios and climate projections used...

  20. A Historical Approach to Clustering in Emerging Economies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giacomin, Valeria

    of external factors. Indeed, researchers have explained clusters as self-contained entities and reduced their success to local exceptionality. In contrast, emerging literature has shown that clusters are integrated in broader structures beyond their location and are rather building blocks of today’s global...... economy. The working paper goes on to present two historical cases from the global south to explain how clusters work as major tools for international business. Particularly in the developing world, multinationals have used clusters as platforms for channeling foreign investment, knowledge, and imported...... inputs. The study concludes by stressing the importance of using historical evidence and data to look at clusters as agglomerations of actors and companies operating not just at the local level but across broader global networks. In doing so the historical perspective provides explanations lacking...

  1. FROM GLOBALIZATION TO GLOBALITY- MERGING NON- WESTERN (POST COLONIAL AND WESTERN SOCIETIES INTO A GLOBAL MODERNITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Barakoska

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Modernity stands as a widely used term for social change as it involves modification in many forms in the society and the way people develop with different ideologies and movements. Standing on the other side of the traditional and historical, modernity brings new forms of development, communication and connectedness. In this paper it would be discussed whether the globalization processes are leading to merging of the societies and raising a global modernity, hence the influence of the West and the pilgrimages drawn on the other societies would be examined. Change is an unavoidable part of the society seen as a reform, reaction or revolution. However, the historical processes of integration, innovation and development bring different questions and theories. In this paper it would be referred on the integrative inclinations for merging societies, the understanding of modernity and globalization processes that emerge from the historical development and social change.

  2. Global assessments of the state of the marine environment: Contemporary initiatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bewers, J.M.; Boelens, R.G.V.

    1999-01-01

    A large number of assessments of regional marine areas have been conducted in recent years for a variety of purposes. Periodic reviews of the state of the marine environment have been undertaken by the United Nations Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP). The most recent of these global assessments was published in 1990. The international adoption of a Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-Based Activities in 1995 has led to additional demand for regional assessments and a global review. The regional assessments are either completed or in train largely through mechanisms associated with the UNEP Regional Seas Programme. The global assessment has been assigned to GESAMP and incorporated into its plans for the preparation of a new global review to be completed in the year 2002. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, (IOC) the Scientific Committee for Oceanic Research (SCOR) and the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) are collaborating in a review of ocean science. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) recently approved funding for a 'Global International Waters Assessment' (GIWA) partly as a means of determining priorities within its International Waters Portfolio. This paper outlines the nature of, and contemporary activities within, these various assessments. (author)

  3. What's past is prologue: Supporting global change research with historical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honea, R.B.; Floyd, C.L.; Peplies, R.W.

    1993-01-01

    This paper discusses an ongoing effort to analyze historical remote sensing data and to develop a technology to integrate this analysis into a common framework with the satellite imagery. Historical data and metadata from aircraft remote sensor missions, satellite overflights, and other sources from around the world will be used to develop detailed information on the historical changes in the earth's land, water, and atmospheric resources

  4. Whose global art (history?: Ancient art as global art

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia Colburn

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Discourse on global art or art history arguably dominates the field of art history today in terms of curriculum and research. This discourse cuts across time and space, impacting all art historical specializations, from prehistoric to contemporary, and from Africa to the Americas. Yet, the mainstream theoretical discourse on global art or art history focuses almost explicitly on contemporary and, to a lesser extent, modern art, operating from the premise that only these arts were created in an age of globalization and, thus, emphasize hybridity. This essay seeks to expand the mainstream theoretical discourse regarding global art to pre-modern examples, given that artistic exchange and hybridity dates as early as the prehistoric era all over the world and is not dependent on newer technologies. Indeed, one might argue that the study of pre-modern examples of global art could provide a powerful historical lens through which to analyze contemporary global art.

  5. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models accurately reproduces the evolution over time and spatial patterns of the historically observed increase in monthly heat extremes. For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario. However, mitigation can strongly reduce the number of heat extremes by the second half of the 21st century. Unmitigated climate change causes most (>50%) continental regions to move to a new climatic regime with the coldest summer months by the end of the century substantially hotter than the hottest experienced today. We show that the land fraction experiencing extreme heat as a function of global mean temperature follows a simple cumulative distribution function, which depends only on natural variability and the level of spatial heterogeneity in the warming. (letter)

  6. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Frieler

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1 separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations; (2 quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0 with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3 assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016 and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across

  7. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.

    2013-01-01

    Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE...... and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20...

  8. Comparison of Mediterranean Pteropod Shell Biometrics and Ultrastructure from Historical (1910 and 1921 and Present Day (2012 Samples Provides Baseline for Monitoring Effects of Global Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella L Howes

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic carbon perturbation has caused decreases in seawater pH and increases in global temperatures since the start of the 20th century. The subsequent lowering of the saturation state of CaCO3 may make the secretion of skeletons more problematic for marine calcifiers. As organisms that precipitate thin aragonite shells, thecosome pteropods have been identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Coupled with their global distribution, this makes them ideal for use as sentinel organisms. Recent studies have highlighted shell dissolution as a potential indicator of ocean acidification; however, this metric is not applicable for monitoring pH changes in supersaturated basins. In this study, the novel approach of high resolution computed tomography (CT scanning was used to produce quantitative 3-dimensional renderings pteropod shells to assess the potential of using this method to monitor small changes in shell biometrics that may be driven by climate change drivers. An ontogenetic analysis of the shells of Cavolinia inflexa and Styliola subula collected from the Mediterranean was used to identify suitable monitoring metrics. Modern samples were then compared to historical samples of the same species, collected during the Mediterranean leg of the Thor (1910 and Dana (1921 cruises to assess whether any empirical differences could be detected. Shell densities were calculated and scanning electron microscopy was used to compare the aragonite crystal morphology. pH for the collection years was hind-cast using temperature and salinity time series with atmospheric CO2 concentrations from ice core data. Historical samples of S. subula were thicker than S. subula shells of the same size from 2012 and C. inflexa shells collected in 1910 were significantly denser than those from 2012. These results provide a baseline for future work to develop monitoring techniques for climate change in the oceans using the novel approach of

  9. Comparison of Mediterranean Pteropod Shell Biometrics and Ultrastructure from Historical (1910 and 1921) and Present Day (2012) Samples Provides Baseline for Monitoring Effects of Global Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Ella L; Eagle, Robert A; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bijma, Jelle

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic carbon perturbation has caused decreases in seawater pH and increases in global temperatures since the start of the 20th century. The subsequent lowering of the saturation state of CaCO3 may make the secretion of skeletons more problematic for marine calcifiers. As organisms that precipitate thin aragonite shells, thecosome pteropods have been identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Coupled with their global distribution, this makes them ideal for use as sentinel organisms. Recent studies have highlighted shell dissolution as a potential indicator of ocean acidification; however, this metric is not applicable for monitoring pH changes in supersaturated basins. In this study, the novel approach of high resolution computed tomography (CT) scanning was used to produce quantitative 3-dimensional renderings pteropod shells to assess the potential of using this method to monitor small changes in shell biometrics that may be driven by climate change drivers. An ontogenetic analysis of the shells of Cavolinia inflexa and Styliola subula collected from the Mediterranean was used to identify suitable monitoring metrics. Modern samples were then compared to historical samples of the same species, collected during the Mediterranean leg of the Thor (1910) and Dana (1921) cruises to assess whether any empirical differences could be detected. Shell densities were calculated and scanning electron microscopy was used to compare the aragonite crystal morphology. pH for the collection years was hind-cast using temperature and salinity time series with atmospheric CO2 concentrations from ice core data. Historical samples of S. subula were thicker than S. subula shells of the same size from 2012 and C. inflexa shells collected in 1910 were significantly denser than those from 2012. These results provide a baseline for future work to develop monitoring techniques for climate change in the oceans using the novel approach of high-resolution CT

  10. Comparison of Mediterranean Pteropod Shell Biometrics and Ultrastructure from Historical (1910 and 1921) and Present Day (2012) Samples Provides Baseline for Monitoring Effects of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bijma, Jelle

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic carbon perturbation has caused decreases in seawater pH and increases in global temperatures since the start of the 20th century. The subsequent lowering of the saturation state of CaCO3 may make the secretion of skeletons more problematic for marine calcifiers. As organisms that precipitate thin aragonite shells, thecosome pteropods have been identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Coupled with their global distribution, this makes them ideal for use as sentinel organisms. Recent studies have highlighted shell dissolution as a potential indicator of ocean acidification; however, this metric is not applicable for monitoring pH changes in supersaturated basins. In this study, the novel approach of high resolution computed tomography (CT) scanning was used to produce quantitative 3-dimensional renderings pteropod shells to assess the potential of using this method to monitor small changes in shell biometrics that may be driven by climate change drivers. An ontogenetic analysis of the shells of Cavolinia inflexa and Styliola subula collected from the Mediterranean was used to identify suitable monitoring metrics. Modern samples were then compared to historical samples of the same species, collected during the Mediterranean leg of the Thor (1910) and Dana (1921) cruises to assess whether any empirical differences could be detected. Shell densities were calculated and scanning electron microscopy was used to compare the aragonite crystal morphology. pH for the collection years was hind-cast using temperature and salinity time series with atmospheric CO2 concentrations from ice core data. Historical samples of S. subula were thicker than S. subula shells of the same size from 2012 and C. inflexa shells collected in 1910 were significantly denser than those from 2012. These results provide a baseline for future work to develop monitoring techniques for climate change in the oceans using the novel approach of high-resolution CT

  11. Situating globality : African agency in the appropriation of global culture: an introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Binsbergen, van W.M.J.; Dijk, van R.A.; Gewald, J.B.

    2004-01-01

    This introductory chapter sketches globalization and Africa in broad theoretical terms, examining the meaning of the term globalization; the impact of globalization on daily life in Africa in economic as well as sociocultural terms; globalization as a historical phenomenon; the political aspects of

  12. The Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) in clinical practice--substance and reliability as judged by intraclass correlations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dyrborg, J; Larsen, F W; Nielsen, S

    2000-01-01

    Studies on the inter-rater reliability on the Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and the Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) involving different subgroups of 145 outpatients from 4 to 16 years of age showed fair to substantial intraclass correlations of 0.59 to 0.90. Raters...

  13. The HISTMAG database: combining historical, archaeomagnetic and volcanic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneitz, Patrick; Leonhardt, Roman; Schnepp, Elisabeth; Heilig, Balázs; Mayrhofer, Franziska; Kovacs, Peter; Hejda, Pavel; Valach, Fridrich; Vadasz, Gergely; Hammerl, Christa; Egli, Ramon; Fabian, Karl; Kompein, Niko

    2017-09-01

    Records of the past geomagnetic field can be divided into two main categories. These are instrumental historical observations on the one hand, and field estimates based on the magnetization acquired by rocks, sediments and archaeological artefacts on the other hand. In this paper, a new database combining historical, archaeomagnetic and volcanic records is presented. HISTMAG is a relational database, implemented in MySQL, and can be accessed via a web-based interface (http://www.conrad-observatory.at/zamg/index.php/data-en/histmag-database). It combines available global historical data compilations covering the last ∼500 yr as well as archaeomagnetic and volcanic data collections from the last 50 000 yr. Furthermore, new historical and archaeomagnetic records, mainly from central Europe, have been acquired. In total, 190 427 records are currently available in the HISTMAG database, whereby the majority is related to historical declination measurements (155 525). The original database structure was complemented by new fields, which allow for a detailed description of the different data types. A user-comment function provides the possibility for a scientific discussion about individual records. Therefore, HISTMAG database supports thorough reliability and uncertainty assessments of the widely different data sets, which are an essential basis for geomagnetic field reconstructions. A database analysis revealed systematic offset for declination records derived from compass roses on historical geographical maps through comparison with other historical records, while maps created for mining activities represent a reliable source.

  14. Treating Globalization in History Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stearns, Peter N.

    2003-01-01

    Globalization provides history teachers with an opportunity to link past to present in new ways and to test historical thinking. This is particularly true in world history surveys, but has relevance to Western civilization or United States history surveys as well. For globalization in turn, the historical perspective offers opportunities for more…

  15. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  16. Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2014-01-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  17. Assessing students' communication skills: validation of a global rating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheffer, Simone; Muehlinghaus, Isabel; Froehmel, Annette; Ortwein, Heiderose

    2008-12-01

    Communication skills training is an accepted part of undergraduate medical programs nowadays. In addition to learning experiences its importance should be emphasised by performance-based assessment. As detailed checklists have been shown to be not well suited for the assessment of communication skills for different reasons, this study aimed to validate a global rating scale. A Canadian instrument was translated to German and adapted to assess students' communication skills during an end-of-semester-OSCE. Subjects were second and third year medical students at the reformed track of the Charité-Universitaetsmedizin Berlin. Different groups of raters were trained to assess students' communication skills using the global rating scale. Validity testing included concurrent validity and construct validity: Judgements of different groups of raters were compared to expert ratings as a defined gold standard. Furthermore, the amount of agreement between scores obtained with this global rating scale and a different instrument for assessing communication skills was determined. Results show that communication skills can be validly assessed by trained non-expert raters as well as standardised patients using this instrument.

  18. Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature

  19. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an EMIC intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.

    2012-01-01

    Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE...... and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land-use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures...... the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from paleoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of errors in the reconstructions of volcanic and/or solar radiative forcing used to drive the models or the incomplete representation of certain processes or variability within...

  20. Detailed assessment of global transport-energy models’ structures and projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Sonia; Mishra, Gouri Shankar; Fulton, Lew; Kyle, Page; McCollum, David L.; Miller, Joshua; Cazzola, Pierpaolo; Teter, Jacob

    2017-08-01

    This paper focuses on comparing the frameworks and projections from four major global transportation models with considerable transportation technology and behavioral detail. We analyze and compare the modeling frameworks, underlying data, assumptions, intermediate parameters, and projections to identify the sources of divergence or consistency, as well as key knowledge gaps. We find that there are significant differences in the base-year data and key parameters for future projections, especially for developing countries. These include passenger and freight activity, mode shares, vehicle ownership rates, and even energy consumption by mode, particularly for shipping, aviation and trucking. This may be due in part to a lack of previous efforts to do such consistency-checking and “bench-marking.” We find that the four models differ in terms of the relative roles of various mitigation strategies to achieve a 2°C / 450 ppm CO2e target: the economics-based integrated assessment models favor the use of low carbon fuels as the primary mitigation option followed by efficiency improvements, whereas transport-only and expert-based models favor efficiency improvements of vehicles followed by mode shifts. We offer recommendations for future modeling improvements focusing on (1) reducing data gaps; (2) translating the findings from this study into relevant policy implications such as feasibility of current policy goals, additional policy targets needed, regional vs. global reductions, etc.; (3) modeling strata of demographic groups to improve understanding of vehicle ownership levels, travel behavior, and urban vs. rural considerations; and (4) conducting coordinated efforts in aligning input assumptions and historical data, policy analysis, and modeling insights.

  1. A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

    2017-01-01

    Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

  2. Against Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Lotte; Baggesgaard, Mads Anders

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand globalization, we need to consider what globalization is not. That is, in order to understand the mechanisms and elements that work toward globalization, we must, in a sense, read against globalization, highlighting the limitations of the concept and its inherent conflicts....... Only by employing this as a critical practice will we be analytically able to gain a dynamic understanding of the forces of globalization as they unfold today and as they have developed historically....

  3. Historical data summary of the Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, M.R.; Waterman, D.K.

    1987-04-01

    This report presents a history of Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) ratings for nuclear power plant facilities in operation and under construction. The SALP results are listed by NRC region in three sections: the most recent report, operating facilities, and facilities under construction. The historical data summary report has been prepared by the NRC Office of Inspection and Enforcement (IE). Information contained in this report has been updated to include those published SALP reports received before March 13, 1987

  4. Historical data summary of the systematic assessment of licensee performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-10-01

    This report presents a history of Systematic Assessment of Licensee Performance (SALP) ratings for nuclear power plant facilities in operation and under construction. The SALP results are listed by NRC region in three sections: the most recent report, operating facilities, and facilities under construction. The historical data summary report has been prepared by the NRC Office of Inspection and Enforcement (IE). Information contained in this report has been updated to include those published SALP reports received before September 16, 1986

  5. An Analysis of Historical Global Warming and Social Engagement

    OpenAIRE

    Train, Joseph; Roizenman, David; Damiani, Seth; Rochwerg, Ronny

    2018-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to determine whether there is a correlation between awareness of global warming, and where global warming occurs. This theory is carried out by analyzing maps containing various forms of data that have to do with global warming, such as precipitation and surface temperature, and comparing it with a map of engagement from tweets which mention global warming. This paper found that there is no solid correlation between mentioning global warming in tweets and global warm...

  6. Poseidon's paintbox : historical archives of ocean colour in global-change perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernand, M. R.

    2011-11-01

    In the thesis introduction issues are discussed on the historical background of marine optics and on marine optical devices that were used over the past centuries to observe and measure; as in all sciences, in marine optics we can see a steady development: that of ‘measuring’, beginning many centuries ago, to 'knowing' and since less than a century to the understanding of the phenomenon. Hereafter, six themes are treated successively. The first theme, ‘Ocean optics from 1600 (Hudson) to 1930 (Raman), shift in interpretation of natural water colouring’, addresses the question of why it took so long a time to explain the phenomenon ‘the colouring of the sea’, especially the blue colour, despite the age-long interest of sailors, for practical purposes of navigation and detection of fish - of which more later. The second theme ‘On the history of the Secchi disc’, describes the search to establish methods for the determination of (sea) water clarity concerning purposes of navigation (near coast colour changes) just mentioned to detect shoals, and for a more basic purpose, tracing lost objects. The search to determine the clarity of lakes and seas culminated in the invention of the Secchi disc, used since the late 19th century. The third theme, ‘Spectral analysis of the Forel-Ule ocean colour comparator scale’, addresses the accuracy of a colour scale proposed, used in limnology and oceanography. Scale observations are put into perspective with contemporary measurements on the colour of the sea. The fourth theme, ‘Ocean colour changes in the North Pacific since 1930’, handles the question whether long-term ocean colour changes using historic Forel-Ule observations, in this part of the ocean made very frequently over time, can be determined in relation to global change. In principal global warming may cause a gradual change in ocean colour due to the effect of biological, chemical and physical aspects of the ocean-surface. The fifth theme,

  7. The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilcox, L J; Highwood, E J; Dunstone, N J

    2013-01-01

    Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol–cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi-decadal timescales. (letter)

  8. Reconstructions of Fire Activity in North America and Europe over the Past 250 Years: A comparison of the Global Charcoal Database with Historical Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magi, B. I.; Marlon, J. R.; Mouillot, F.; Daniau, A. L.; Bartlein, P. J.; Schaefer, A.

    2017-12-01

    Fire is intertwined with climate variability and human activities in terms of both its causes and consequences, and the most complete understanding will require a multidisciplinary approach. The focus in this study is to compare data-based records of variability in climate and human activities, with fire and land cover change records over the past 250 years in North America and Europe. The past 250 years is a critical period for contextualizing the present-day impact of human activities on climate. Data are from the Global Charcoal Database and from historical reconstructions of past burning. The GCD is comprised of sediment records of charcoal accumulation rates collected around the world by dozens of researchers, and facilitated by the PAGES Global Paleofire Working Group. The historical reconstruction extends back to 1750 CE is based on literature and government records when available, and completed with non-charcoal proxies including tree ring scars or storylines when data are missing. The key data sets are independent records, and the methods and results are independent of any climate or fire-model simulations. Results are presented for Europe, and subsets of North America. Analysis of fire trends from GCD and the historical reconstruction shows broad agreement, with some regional variations as expected. Western USA and North America in general show the best agreement, with departures in the GCD and historical reconstruction fire trends in the present day that may reflect limits in the data itself. Eastern North America shows agreement with an increase in fire from 1750 to 1900, and a strong decreasing trend thereafter. We present ideas for why the trends agree and disagree relative to historical events, and to the sequence of land-cover change in the regions of interest. Together with careful consideration of uncertainties in the data, these results can be used to constrain Earth System Model simulations of both past fire, which explicitly incorporate

  9. Assessing historical empathy through simulation – How do Finnish teacher students achieve contextual historical empathy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jukka Rantala

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a great deal of international debate about introducing historical empathy as the focus in teaching history. However, as it is, the contents of the concept have been included in the curricula in many countries. Nevertheless, practising stepping into the shoes of a person from a previous era is still in its infancy in schools in many locations – Finland included. This article discusses Finnish class teacher students' understanding of historical empathy. The article is based on a study where 360 class teacher students played a game simulating the Cuban Missile Crisis. Their task was to assume the roles of the superpower leaders and make decisions on the basis of these roles. The simulation showed that a majority of the student teachers are able to attain a level of contextual historical empathy. They were able to empathize with the historical context in question and make such decisions that would have been possible for the historical actors. Some of the playing groups on the other hand, referred to their current knowledge and attitudes, which, according to Ashby and Lee's empathy classification, shows lower-level empathy. The study corroborates previous research results concerning great discrepancies in the understanding of empathy prevalent within one age group. Moreover, the study raises the question of how historical empathy should be handled in teaching if many future teachers have difficulties in understanding it.

  10. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercure, Jean-François; Salas, Pablo

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. -- Highlights: ► Global energy potentials for all major energy resources are reported. ► Theory and methodology for calculating economic energy potentials is given. ► An uncertainty analysis for all energy economic potentials is carried out.

  11. ISLSCP II Historical Land Cover and Land Use, 1700-1990

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Historical Land Cover and Land Use data set was developed to provide the global change community with historical land use estimates. The data set...

  12. The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2018-01-01

    The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or ‘effective’ transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43–2.37°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88–2.60°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610381

  13. The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, Richard J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2018-05-01

    The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or `effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

  14. A generalized approach for historical mock-up acquisition and data modelling: Towards historically enriched 3D city models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hervy, B.; Billen, R.; Laroche, F.; Carré, C.; Servières, M.; Van Ruymbeke, M.; Tourre, V.; Delfosse, V.; Kerouanton, J.-L.

    2012-10-01

    Museums are filled with hidden secrets. One of those secrets lies behind historical mock-ups whose signification goes far behind a simple representation of a city. We face the challenge of designing, storing and showing knowledge related to these mock-ups in order to explain their historical value. Over the last few years, several mock-up digitalisation projects have been realised. Two of them, Nantes 1900 and Virtual Leodium, propose innovative approaches that present a lot of similarities. This paper presents a framework to go one step further by analysing their data modelling processes and extracting what could be a generalized approach to build a numerical mock-up and the knowledge database associated. Geometry modelling and knowledge modelling influence each other and are conducted in a parallel process. Our generalized approach describes a global overview of what can be a data modelling process. Our next goal is obviously to apply this global approach on other historical mock-up, but we also think about applying it to other 3D objects that need to embed semantic data, and approaching historically enriched 3D city models.

  15. Evaluation of perioperative nutritional status with subjective global assessment method in patients undergoing gastrointestinal cancer surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdim, Aylin; Aktan, Ahmet Özdemir

    2017-01-01

    This study was designed to evaluate the perioperative nutritional status of patients undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal cancer using Subjective Global Assessment and surgeon behavior on nutritional support. We recruited 100 patients undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal cancer in one university and two state teaching hospitals. Subjective Global Assessment was administered to evaluate preoperative and postoperative nutritional status. Fifty-two patients in the state hospitals (Group 1) and 48 in the university hospital were assessed. Anthropometric and biochemical measurements were performed. Changes in preoperative Subjective Global Assessment scores and scores at the time of discharge and types of nutritional support were compared. Subjective Global Assessment-B was regarded as moderate and Subjective Global Assessment-C as heavy malnutrition. Ten patients had Subjective Global Assessment-B and 29 had Subjective Global Assessment-C malnutrition in Group 1 and nine had Subjective Global Assessment-B and 31 had Subjective Global Assessment-C malnutrition in Group 2 during preoperative assessment. Respective numbers in postoperative assessment were 12 for Subjective Global Assessment-B and 30 for Subjective Global Assessment-C in Group 1 and 14 for Subjective Global Assessment-B and 26 for Subjective Global Assessment-C in Group 2. There was no difference between two groups. Nutritional methods according to Subjective Global Assessment evaluation in pre- and postoperative periods were not different between the groups. This study demonstrated that the malnutrition rate is high among patients scheduled for gastrointestinal cancer surgery and the number of surgeons were inadequate to provide perioperative nutritional support. Both university and state hospitals had similar shortcomings. Subjective Global Assessment is an easy and reliable test and if utilized will be helpful to detect patients requiring nutritional support.

  16. Ecological risk assessment of radionuclides in the Columbia River System ''a historical assessment''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friant, S.L.; Brandt, C.A.; Probasco, K.M.

    1993-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State has been the location of nuclear production activities since 1943. Radioactive effluents were discharged to the Columbia River, which runs through the northern portion of the Site and borders it on the east (the Hanford Reach). The assessment was conducted using historical Hanford Site monitoring data for the aquatic environment of the Columbia River over the time period from 1963 to 1964. The time period was chosen because it was then that peak production of nuclear material was occurring and the maximum number of reactors were operational. Exposure characterization consisted of measured radioactivity in water, sediments, and biota. Two approaches were used in assessing ecological risk to Columbia River organisms. In the first approach, environmental exposure data were used to calculate internal dose to a variety of aquatic organisms, including the most sensitive receptors (fish). In the second approach, measured tissue concentrations were used for selected aquatic organisms to calculate organism internal dose directly. Organism dose was used to assess potential toxic effects and assess regulatory compliance. Risk characterization was developed by comparing dose levels in fish and other organisms found in the Columbia River to known concentrations through a hazard quotient for acute dose and developmental effects

  17. Global gradients in vertebrate diversity predicted by historical area-productivity dynamics and contemporary environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Jetz

    Full Text Available Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or "evolutionary arenas," characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients.

  18. Globalization and Religion in Historical Perspective: A Paradoxical Relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke M. Herrington

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Religion has long been a driving force in the process of globalization. This idea is not controversial or novel thinking, nor is it meant to be. However, the dominant reasoning on the subject of globalization, expressed by authors like Thomas Friedman, places economics at the center of analysis, skewing focus from the ideational factors at work in this process. By expanding the definition of globalization to accommodate ideational factors and cultural exchange, religion’s agency in the process can be enabled. Interestingly, the story of religion and globalization is in some ways the history of globalization, but it is riddled with paradoxes, including the agent-opponent paradox, the subject of this article. Religion and globalization have a co-constitutive relationship, but religious actors are both agents of globalization and principals in its backlash. While some actors might benefit from a mutually reinforcing relationship with globalization, others are marginalized in some way or another, so it is necessary to expose the links and wedges that allow for such a paradox. To that end, the concepts of globalization and religious actors must be defined, and the history of the agent-opponent paradox, from the Buddhists of the Silk Road to the Jubilee campaign of 2000, must be elucidated.

  19. Democracy in Kazakhstan: Historical Fiction or Reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adilzhanov, Nurlykhan B.; Kozhirova, Svetlana B.; Azizian, Rouben

    2016-01-01

    An important issue in the development of transitional societies at the present stage of historical development is the impact of "global democracy" system of government. Trends of such influence in the post-Soviet space, in particular, are becoming more tangible in the context of globalization and especially after the so-called…

  20. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming increases the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and this could lead to more intense rainfalls and possibly increasing natural hazards in the form of flooding in some regions. This implies that traditional practice of using historical hydrological records alone is somewhat limited for supporting long-term water infrastructure planning. This has motivated recent global scale studies to evaluate river flood risks (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014, Sadoff et al., 2015) and adaptations benefits (e.g., Jongman et al., 2015). To support decision-making in river flood risk reduction, this study takes a further step to examine the benefits and corresponding residual risks for a range of flood protection levels. To do that, we channelled runoff information of a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and each CMIP5 model (historic and future periods) into a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011). We incorporated the latest global river width data (Yamazaki et al., 2014) into CaMa-Flood and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the flood protection benefits. We quantify the corresponding residual risks using a mathematical approach that is consistent with the modelling structure of CaMa-Flood. Globally and regionally, we find that the benefits of flood protection level peak somewhere between 20 and 500 years; residual risks diminish

  1. Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume I”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

    2016-01-01

    Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  2. Historical Tsunami Event Locations with Runups

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Global Historical Tsunami Database provides information on over 2,400 tsunamis from 2100 BC to the present in the the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans; and...

  3. International Global Crop Condition Assessments in the framework of GEOGLAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Vermote, E.; Whitcraft, A. K.; Claverie, M.

    2013-12-01

    The Group on Earth Observations (partnership of governments and international organizations) developed the Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative in response to the growing calls for improved agricultural information. The goal of GEOGLAM is to strengthen the international community's capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate forecasts of agricultural production at national, regional and global scales through the use of Earth observations. This initiative is designed to build on existing agricultural monitoring initiatives at national, regional and global levels and to enhance and strengthen them through international networking, operationally focused research, and data/method sharing. GEOGLAM was adopted by the G20 as part of the action plan on food price volatility and agriculture and is being implemented through building on the extensive GEO Agricultural Community of Practice (CoP) that was initiated in 2007 and includes key national and international agencies, organizations, and universities involved in agricultural monitoring. One of the early GEOGLAM activities is to provide harmonized global crop outlooks that offer timely qualitative consensus information on crop status and prospects. This activity is being developed in response to a request from the G-20 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and is implemented within the global monitoring systems component of GEOGLAM. The goal is to develop a transparent, international, multi-source, consensus assessment of crop growing conditions, status, and agro-climatic conditions, likely to impact global production. These assessments are focused on the four primary crop types (corn, wheat, soy and rice) within the main agricultural producing regions of the world. The GEOGLAM approach is to bring together international experts from global, regional and national monitoring systems that can share and discuss information from a variety of independent complementary sources in

  4. Narrowing Historical Uncertainty: Probabilistic Classification of Ambiguously Identified Tree Species in Historical Forest Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Mladenoff; Sally E. Dahir; Eric V. Nordheim; Lisa A. Schulte; Glenn G. Gutenspergen

    2002-01-01

    Historical data have increasingly become appreciated for insight into the past conditions of ecosystems, Uses of such data include assessing the extent of ecosystem change; deriving ecological baselines for management, restoration, and modeling; and assessing the importance of past conditions on the composition and function of current systems. One historical data set...

  5. Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

    2016-06-01

    How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends.

  6. A New Binarization Algorithm for Historical Documents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Almeida

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Monochromatic documents claim for much less computer bandwidth for network transmission and storage space than their color or even grayscale equivalent. The binarization of historical documents is far more complex than recent ones as paper aging, color, texture, translucidity, stains, back-to-front interference, kind and color of ink used in handwriting, printing process, digitalization process, etc. are some of the factors that affect binarization. This article presents a new binarization algorithm for historical documents. The new global filter proposed is performed in four steps: filtering the image using a bilateral filter, splitting image into the RGB components, decision-making for each RGB channel based on an adaptive binarization method inspired by Otsu’s method with a choice of the threshold level, and classification of the binarized images to decide which of the RGB components best preserved the document information in the foreground. The quantitative and qualitative assessment made with 23 binarization algorithms in three sets of “real world” documents showed very good results.

  7. Personality Assessment of Global Talent: Conceptual and Methodological Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Vijver, Fons J. R.

    2008-01-01

    The recruitment of managers who will operate in a culturally heterogeneous context (as expatriate managers, managers in a global company, or managers of a multicultural workforce) is increasingly important in an age of globalization. This article describes conceptual and methodological issues in the assessment of such managers, notably in the…

  8. Global mineral resource assessment: porphyry copper assessment of Mexico: Chapter A in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Robinson, Gilpin R.; Ludington, Steve; Gray, Floyd; Drenth, Benjamin J.; Cendejas-Cruz, Francisco; Espinosa, Enrique; Pérez-Segura, Efrén; Valencia-Moreno, Martín; Rodríguez-Castañeda, José Luis; Vásquez-Mendoza, Rigobert; Zürcher, Lukas

    2010-01-01

    Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about distributions of mineral deposits in the Earth’s crust. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources in porphyry copper deposits in Mexico was done as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within 1 km of the surface at a scale of 1:1,000,000; (2) provide a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered deposits for each permissive tract. The assessment was conducted using a three-part form of mineral resource assessment based on mineral deposit models (Singer, 1993). Delineation of permissive tracts primarily was based on distributions of mapped igneous rocks related to magmatic arcs that formed in tectonic settings associated with subduction boundary zones. Using a GIS, map units were selected from digital geologic maps based on lithology and age to delineate twelve permissive tracts associated with Jurassic, Laramide (~90 to 34 Ma), and younger Tertiary magmatic arcs. Stream-sediment geochemistry, mapped alteration, regional aeromagnetic data, and exploration history were considered in conjunction with descriptive deposit models and grade and tonnage models to guide estimates.

  9. Assessment of Global Wind Energy Resource Utilization Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, M.; He, B.; Guan, Y.; Zhang, H.; Song, S.

    2017-09-01

    Development of wind energy resource (WER) is a key to deal with climate change and energy structure adjustment. A crucial issue is to obtain the distribution and variability of WER, and mine the suitable location to exploit it. In this paper, a multicriteria evaluation (MCE) model is constructed by integrating resource richness and stability, utilization value and trend of resource, natural environment with weights. The global resource richness is assessed through wind power density (WPD) and multi-level wind speed. The utilizable value of resource is assessed by the frequency of effective wind. The resource stability is assessed by the coefficient of variation of WPD and the frequency of prevailing wind direction. Regression slope of long time series WPD is used to assess the trend of WER. All of the resource evaluation indicators are derived from the atmospheric reanalysis data ERA-Interim with spatial resolution 0.125°. The natural environment factors mainly refer to slope and land-use suitability, which are derived from multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED 2010) and GlobalCover2009. Besides, the global WER utilization potential map is produced, which shows most high potential regions are located in north of Africa. Additionally, by verifying that 22.22 % and 48.8 9% operational wind farms fall on medium-high and high potential regions respectively, the result can provide a basis for the macroscopic siting of wind farm.

  10. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T B; Nakicenovic, N; Patwardhan, A; Gomez-Echeverri, L [eds.

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  11. The process of developing policy based on global environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1995-01-01

    A brief presentation is given on developing policy based on a global environmental risk assessment. The author looks at the global warming issue as if it were a formal problem in risk assessment. He uses that framework to make one or two suggestions as to how the interaction of policy and research might evolve as the climate convention progresses

  12. Accountability for Early Childhood Education (Assessing Global Functioning).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassel, Russell N.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses the pacing of learning activity, knowledge of progress in student learning, teacher role, accountability in learning, feedback on knowledge of success, the global functioning assessment concept, and the mother surrogate. (RS)

  13. Conflict and Cooperation in the Global Arena: A Historical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article reviews the periods of crises and rapprochement in Nigeria's relations with France. The historical landmarks in their diplomatic ties are suggestive of the iron laws that govern international relations. These laws favour the strong and sanction the weak. France's pre-eminent status in the international arena during ...

  14. Integrated assessment of the global warming problem. A decision-analytical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

    1995-01-01

    The project on the title subject aims at developing a policy-oriented methodology for the integrated assessment of the global warming problem. Decision analysis in general and influence diagrams in particular appear to constitute an appropriate integrated assessment methodology. The influence-diagram approach is illustrated at a preliminary integrated modeling of the global warming problem. In next stages of the research, attention will be shifted from the methodology of integrated assessment to the contents of integrated models. 4 figs., 5 refs

  15. Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

    2014-01-01

    A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

  16. The assessment of fire safety of cast iron structures in historical buildings: Theory and practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Twilt, L.; Hunen, M. van

    2000-01-01

    The assessment of structural fire safety of cast iron structures in historical buildings is difficult because the available information on the fire behaviour is limited, whilst the fire design assumptions (if any) often are not well docu-mented. A complicating factor with regard to protective

  17. High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gernaat, David E.H.J.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Vuuren, van Detlef P.; Biemans, Hester; Niessink, Robin

    2017-01-01

    Hydropower is the most important renewable energy source to date, providing over 72% of all renewable electricity globally. Yet, only limited information is available on the global potential supply of hydropower and the associated costs. Here we provide a high-resolution assessment of the technical

  18. Assessing a potential solution for spatially referencing of historical aerial photography in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denner, Michele; Raubenheimer, Jacobus H.

    2018-05-01

    Historical aerial photography has become a valuable commodity in any country, as it provides a precise record of historical land management over time. In a developing country, such as South Africa, that has undergone enormous political and social change over the last years, such photography is invaluable as it provides a clear indication of past injustices and serves as an aid to addressing post-apartheid issues such as land reform and land redistribution. National mapping organisations throughout the world have vast repositories of such historical aerial photography. In order to effectively use these datasets in today's digital environment requires that it be georeferenced to an accuracy that is suitable for the intended purpose. Using image-to-image georeferencing techniques, this research sought to determine the accuracies achievable for ortho-rectifying large volumes of historical aerial imagery, against the national standard for ortho-rectification in South Africa, using two different types of scanning equipment. The research conducted four tests using aerial photography from different time epochs over a period of sixty years, where the ortho-rectification matched each test to an already ortho-rectified mosaic of a developed area of mixed land use. The results of each test were assessed in terms of visual accuracy, spatial accuracy and conformance to the national standard for ortho-rectification in South Africa. The results showed a decrease in the overall accuracy of the image as the epoch range between the historical image and the reference image increased. Recommendations on the applications possible given the different epoch ranges and scanning equipment used are provided.

  19. Assessing global resource utilization efficiency in the industrial sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, Marc A.

    2013-01-01

    Designing efficient energy systems, which also meet economic, environmental and other objectives and constraints, is a significant challenge. In a world with finite natural resources and large energy demands, it is important to understand not just actual efficiencies, but also limits to efficiency, as the latter identify margins for efficiency improvement. Energy analysis alone is inadequate, e.g., it yields energy efficiencies that do not provide limits to efficiency. To obtain meaningful and useful efficiencies for energy systems, and to clarify losses, exergy analysis is a beneficial and useful tool. Here, the global industrial sector and industries within it are assessed by using energy and exergy methods. The objective is to improve the understanding of the efficiency of global resource use in the industrial sector and, with this information, to facilitate the development, prioritization and ultimate implementation of rational improvement options. Global energy and exergy flow diagrams for the industrial sector are developed and overall efficiencies for the global industrial sector evaluated as 51% based on energy and 30% based on exergy. Consequently, exergy analysis indicates a less efficient picture of energy use in the global industrial sector than does energy analysis. A larger margin for improvement exists from an exergy perspective, compared to the overly optimistic margin indicated by energy. - Highlights: ► The global industrial sector and its industries are assessed by using energy and exergy methods. ► Global industrial sector efficiencies are evaluated as 51% based on energy and 30% based on exergy. ► Exergy analysis shows global industrial energy to be less efficient than does energy analysis. ► A misleadingly low margin for efficiency improvement is indicated by energy analysis. ► A significant and rational margin for efficiency improvement exists from an exergy perspective

  20. Global warming and the challenge of international cooperation: an interdisciplinary assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryner, G.C.

    1992-01-01

    The book aims to explore the nature of potential climatic change. It seeks to assess the scientific, economic legal and political issues related to the threat of global warming from an interdisciplinary perspective. The seven chapters have the following titles: the challenge of global warming; global warming and ozone depletion - certainties and uncertainties; consequences of global climate change for Earth's biosphere; global energy use and global warming; problems and prospects of institutionalizing ecological interdependence in a world of local independence; political institutions and climate change; and policy options for responding to the threat of global warming. Six chapters are abstracted separately. 158 refs

  1. School Climate: Historical Review, Instrument Development, and School Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zullig, Keith J.; Koopman, Tommy M.; Patton, Jon M.; Ubbes, Valerie A.

    2010-01-01

    This study's purpose is to examine the existing school climate literature in an attempt to constitute its definition from a historical context and to create a valid and reliable student-reported school climate instrument. Five historically common school climate domains and five measurement tools were identified, combined, and previewed by the…

  2. Globalization: the evolution of enterprises in the global network competition

    OpenAIRE

    Borghoff, Thomas; Welge, Martin K.

    2001-01-01

    The globalization of a company is embedded in the globalization of its task environment. This process can be described as a co-evolutionary process of a social system in its environment. A historical view of the globalization of competition seems to prove that it can be interpreted as an evolutionary process of differentiation and integration that is reinforced by the decreasing rigidity of boundaries. A liquefaction of competition" can be observed, in which an increasing number of autonomous...

  3. Beyond offshoring: assess your company's global potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Diana

    2004-12-01

    In the past few years, companies have become aware that they can slash costs by offshoring: moving jobs to lower-wage locations. But this practice is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how globalization can transform industries, according to research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). The institute's yearlong study suggests that by streamlining their production processes and supply chains globally, rather than just nationally or regionally, companies can lower their costs-as we've seen in the consumer-electronics and PC industries. Companies can save as much as 70% of their total costs through globalization--50% from offshoring, 5% from training and business-task redesign, and 15% from process improvements. But they don't have to stop there. The cost reductions make it possible to lower prices and expand into new markets, attracting whole new classes of customers. To date, however, few businesses have recognized the full scope of performance improvements that globalization makes possible, much less developed sound strategies for capturing those opportunities. In this article, Diana Farrell, director of MGI, offers a step-by-step approach to doing both things. Among her suggestions: Assess where your industry falls along the globalization spectrum, because not all sectors of the economy face the same challenges and opportunities at the same time. Also, pay attention to production, regulatory, and organizational barriers to globalization. If any of these can be changed, size up the cost-saving (and revenue-generating) opportunities that will emerge for your company as a result of those changes. Farrell also defines the five stages of globalization-market entry, product specialization, value chain disaggregation, value chain reengineering, and the creation of new markets-and notes the different levers for cutting costs and creating value that companies can use in each phase.

  4. ASSESSMENT OF THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL MARKETING STRATEGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Savelyev

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article concerns with essence of assessment of the business environment and specific directions of analysis during the working out of global marketing strategy. The classification of the global marketing environment researches and tasks sequence in the context of the decisions made on each stage of global marketing strategy is proposed.

  5. Integrated assessment of the global warming problem: A decision-analytical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

    1994-12-01

    The multi-disciplinary character of the global warming problem asks for an integrated assessment approach for ordering and combining the various physical, ecological, economical, and sociological results. The Netherlands initiated their own National Research Program (NRP) on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP). The first phase (NRP-1) identified the integration theme as one of five central research themes. The second phase (NRP-2) shows a growing concern for integrated assessment issues. The current two-year research project 'Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy options, which started in September 1993, comes under the integrated assessment part of the Dutch NRP. The first part of the interim report describes the search for an integrated assessment methodology. It starts with emphasizing the need for integrated assessment at a relatively high level of aggregation and from a policy point of view. The conclusion will be that a decision-analytical approach might fit the purpose of a policy-oriented integrated modeling of the global warming problem. The discussion proceeds with an account on decision analysis and its explicit incorporation and analysis of uncertainty. Then influence diagrams, a relatively recent development in decision analysis, are introduced as a useful decision-analytical approach for integrated assessment. Finally, a software environment for creating and analyzing complex influence diagram models is discussed. The second part of the interim report provides a first, provisional integrated modeling of the global warming problem, emphasizing on the illustration of the decision-analytical approach. Major problem elements are identified and an initial problem structure is developed. The problem structure is described in terms of hierarchical influence diagrams. At some places the qualitative structure is filled with quantitative data

  6. Developing an International Assessment of Global Competence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piacentini, Mario

    2017-01-01

    In 2014, an international, interdisciplinary group of experts came together under the auspices of the PISA Governing Board to consider a novel question: can an international assessment evaluate, the global competence of 15-year-old students? The experts recognized the need for data to understand how well students are prepared for life in…

  7. Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid representing global volcano mortality risks. The data set was constructed using historical...

  8. Global Rome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Is 21st-century Rome a global city? Is it part of Europe's core or periphery? This volume examines the “real city” beyond Rome's historical center, exploring the diversity and challenges of life in neighborhoods affected by immigration, neoliberalism, formal urban planning, and grassroots social...... movements. The contributors engage with themes of contemporary urban studies–the global city, the self-made city, alternative modernities, capital cities and nations, urban change from below, and sustainability. Global Rome serves as a provocative introduction to the Eternal City and makes an original...

  9. Balancing Attended and Global Stimuli in Perceived Video Quality Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Junyong; Korhonen, Jari; Perkis, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    . This paper proposes a quality model based on the late attention selection theory, assuming that the video quality is perceived via two mechanisms: global and local quality assessment. First we model several visual features influencing the visual attention in quality assessment scenarios to derive......The visual attention mechanism plays a key role in the human perception system and it has a significant impact on our assessment of perceived video quality. In spite of receiving less attention from the viewers, unattended stimuli can still contribute to the understanding of the visual content...... an attention map using appropriate fusion techniques. The global quality assessment as based on the assumption that viewers allocate their attention equally to the entire visual scene, is modeled by four carefully designed quality features. By employing these same quality features, the local quality model...

  10. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  11. Traditional Medicine Through the Filter of Modernity: A brief historical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Rabarihoela Razafimandimby

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Traditional medicines still prevail in current Malagasy context. A careful historical analysis shows however that Malagasy traditional medicine has been screened through many filters before being accepted in a global context. Traditional medicine in its authentic form has been more or less rejected with the advent of  modern medicine – although not without reaction. This paper will retrace the historical encountering of the modern and traditional to determine the extent to which traditional medicine is acknowledged and used in the current prevailing modern, rational and scientific global context.

  12. Reliability of scored patient generated subjective global assessment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: Establish the reliability of the scored Patient Generated-Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) in determining nutritional status among Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) naive HIV-infected adults. Methods: A descriptive, cross sectional study among outpatient medical clinics, in The AIDS Support Organization ...

  13. Historical seismicity in France. Its role in the assessment of seismic risk on French nuclear sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levret, A.

    1987-11-01

    Since 1975 in order to be in conformity with the requirements of the French nuclear program, a review of historical seismicity was undertaken in France. The assessment of seismic hazard for the safety of nuclear plants is in fact based upon a seismotectonic approach which needs to take into account the seismic activity over as long a period of time as possible. The method adopted for reviewing historical earthquakes entails a systematic consultation of the original sources and a critical analysis there of in the light of the historical, geographical and political contexts of the time. The same standards apply where the acquisition of new elements of information is involved. Each item of information is assigned a degree of reliability, then compiled in a computer file, up-dated annually; this file currently contains more than 4.500 events covering a period of time of about a millenary

  14. Validation of a global assessment of arthroscopic skills in a cadaveric knee model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slade Shantz, Jesse A; Leiter, Jeff R; Collins, John B; MacDonald, Peter B

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine whether a global assessment of arthroscopic skills was valid for blinded assessment of cadaveric diagnostic knee arthroscopy. A global skills assessment for arthroscopy was created using a published theory of the development of expertise. Faculty surgeons, fellows, and residents were consented and enrolled in this institutional review board-approved validation study. All participants were oriented to the equipment and procedures for diagnostic arthroscopy of the knee. After reviewing the anatomic structures to be visualized, participants were allowed 10 minutes to complete a diagnostic arthroscopy of the knee. The hands and arthroscopic view were recorded during this attempt. Resident participants completed a second filmed diagnostic arthroscopy 1 week after the initial attempt. Five blinded reviewers watched the synchronized videos and assessed arthroscopic skills with a procedure-specific checklist and the newly developed global skills assessment. The agreement between reviewers was determined by intraclass correlation coefficient. Internal consistency was determined with Cronbach's α. Test-retest reliability was measured by correlating repeated arthroscopies by residents. The ability of the global assessment to discriminate skill levels was determined with between-group Mann-Whitney U tests. The agreement between global assessment scores was strong (I.C.C. = 0.80, 95% C.I. 0.68-0.92). The internal consistency of evaluations was excellent (Cronbach's α = 0.97), and the test-retest reliability was strong (r = 0.52). The global assessment score was shown to be able to discriminate between skill levels by an analysis of variance indicating the difference in means among the various levels of training (P Assessment of Arthroscopic Skills is a useful adjunct to arthroscopic educators and learners and could be used for in-training evaluations. The Objective Assessment of Arthroscopic Skills is an instrument that can be

  15. Exploring Formative Assessment Using Cultural Historical Activity Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandy Asghar

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Formative assessment is a pedagogic practice that has been the subject of much research and debate, as to how it can be used most effectively to deliver enhanced student learning in the higher education setting. Often described as a complex concept it embraces activities that range from facilitating students understanding of assessment standards, to providing formative feedback on their work; from very informal opportunities of engaging in conversations, to the very formal process of submitting drafts of work. This study aims to show how cultural historical activity theory can be used as a qualitative analysis framework to explore the complexities of formative assessment as it is used in higher education. The original data for the research was collected in 2008 by semi structured interviews and analysed using a hermeneutic phenomenological approach. For this present paper three selected transcripts were re-examined, using a case study approach that sought to understand and compare the perceptions of five academic staff, from three distinct subject areas taught within a UK university. It is proposed that using activity theory can provide insight into the complexity of such experiences, about what teachers do and why, and the influence of the community in which they are situated. Individually the cases from each subject area were analysed using activity theory exploring how the mediating artefacts of formative assessment were used; the often implicit rules that governed their use and the roles of teachers and students within the local subject community. The analysis also considered the influence each aspect of the unit of activity had on the other in understanding formative assessment practice. Subsequently the three subject cases were compared and contrasted. The findings illuminate a variety of practices, including how students and staff engage together in formative assessment activities and for some, how dialogue is used as one of the key tools

  16. Global Assessment of Bisphenol A in the Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jone Corrales

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Because bisphenol A (BPA is a high production volume chemical, we examined over 500 peer-reviewed studies to understand its global distribution in effluent discharges, surface waters, sewage sludge, biosolids, sediments, soils, air, wildlife, and humans. Bisphenol A was largely reported from urban ecosystems in Asia, Europe, and North America; unfortunately, information was lacking from large geographic areas, megacities, and developing countries. When sufficient data were available, probabilistic hazard assessments were performed to understand global environmental quality concerns. Exceedances of Canadian Predicted No Effect Concentrations for aquatic life were >50% for effluents in Asia, Europe, and North America but as high as 80% for surface water reports from Asia. Similarly, maximum concentrations of BPA in sediments from Asia were higher than Europe. Concentrations of BPA in wildlife, mostly for fish, ranged from 0.2 to 13 000 ng/g. We observed 60% and 40% exceedences of median levels by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in Europe and Asia, respectively. These findings highlight the utility of coordinating global sensing of environmental contaminants efforts through integration of environmental monitoring and specimen banking to identify regions for implementation of more robust environmental assessment and management programs.

  17. Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. E. van Marle

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr−1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and

  18. Debate Regarding Measuring Accounting Value: Historical Cost against Fair Value

    OpenAIRE

    Victor Munteanu; Marilena Zuca

    2015-01-01

    The transition from historical cost to fair value represents an option with major implications in accounting, because it is a complex process that requires tuning to today’s trends of national and global economy. We can state that with all the advantages of using historical cost it has its limitations and it is” getting old”. That doesn’t mean that will be abandoned but substituted when it is needed with another value. At present, the lack of historical value is inconceivable; many practit...

  19. Assessing tourism's global environmental impact 1900–2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gössling, Stefan; Peeters, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This paper pioneers the assessment of tourism's total global resource use, including its fossil fuel consumption, associated CO2 emissions, fresh water, land, and food use. As tourism is a dynamic growth system, characterized by rapidly increasing tourist numbers, understanding its

  20. Multi-Directional Seismic Assessment of Historical Masonry Buildings by Means of Macro-Element Modelling: Application to a Building Damaged during the L’Aquila Earthquake (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cannizzaro

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The experience of the recent earthquakes in Italy caused a shocking impact in terms of loss of human life and damage in buildings. In particular, when it comes to ancient constructions, their cultural and historical value overlaps with the economic and social one. Among the historical structures, churches have been the object of several studies which identified the main characteristics of the seismic response and the most probable collapse mechanisms. More rarely, academic studies have been devoted to ancient palaces, since they often exhibit irregular and complicated arrangement of the resisting elements, which makes their response very difficult to predict. In this paper, a palace located in L’Aquila, severely damaged by the seismic event of 2009 is the object of an accurate study. A historical reconstruction of the past strengthening interventions as well as a detailed geometric relief is performed to implement detailed numerical models of the structure. Both global and local models are considered and static nonlinear analyses are performed considering the influence of the input direction on the seismic vulnerability of the building. The damage pattern predicted by the numerical models is compared with that observed after the earthquake. The seismic vulnerability assessments are performed in terms of ultimate peak ground acceleration (PGA using capacity curves and the Italian code spectrum. The results are compared in terms of ultimate ductility demand evaluated performing nonlinear dynamic analyses considering the actual registered seismic input of L’Aquila earthquake.

  1. Archiving, sharing, processing and publishing historical earthquakes data: the IT point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locati, Mario; Rovida, Andrea; Albini, Paola

    2014-05-01

    Digital tools devised for seismological data are mostly designed for handling instrumentally recorded data. Researchers working on historical seismology are forced to perform their daily job using a general purpose tool and/or coding their own to address their specific tasks. The lack of out-of-the-box tools expressly conceived to deal with historical data leads to a huge amount of time lost in performing tedious task to search for the data and, to manually reformat it in order to jump from one tool to the other, sometimes causing a loss of the original data. This reality is common to all activities related to the study of earthquakes of the past centuries, from the interpretations of past historical sources, to the compilation of earthquake catalogues. A platform able to preserve the historical earthquake data, trace back their source, and able to fulfil many common tasks was very much needed. In the framework of two European projects (NERIES and SHARE) and one global project (Global Earthquake History, GEM), two new data portals were designed and implemented. The European portal "Archive of Historical Earthquakes Data" (AHEAD) and the worldwide "Global Historical Earthquake Archive" (GHEA), are aimed at addressing at least some of the above mentioned issues. The availability of these new portals and their well-defined standards makes it easier than before the development of side tools for archiving, publishing and processing the available historical earthquake data. The AHEAD and GHEA portals, their underlying technologies and the developed side tools are presented.

  2. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 10 Appendix I - Historical Evaporation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  3. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 8 Appendix G - Historical Precipitation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  4. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  5. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3 and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to

  6. Novel applications of the temporal kernel method: Historical and future radiative forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portmann, R. W.; Larson, E.; Solomon, S.; Murphy, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    We present a new estimate of the historical radiative forcing derived from the observed global mean surface temperature and a model derived kernel function. Current estimates of historical radiative forcing are usually derived from climate models. Despite large variability in these models, the multi-model mean tends to do a reasonable job of representing the Earth system and climate. One method of diagnosing the transient radiative forcing in these models requires model output of top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and global mean temperature anomaly. It is difficult to apply this method to historical observations due to the lack of TOA radiative measurements before CERES. We apply the temporal kernel method (TKM) of calculating radiative forcing to the historical global mean temperature anomaly. This novel approach is compared against the current regression based methods using model outputs and shown to produce consistent forcing estimates giving confidence in the forcing derived from the historical temperature record. The derived TKM radiative forcing provides an estimate of the forcing time series that the average climate model needs to produce the observed temperature record. This forcing time series is found to be in good overall agreement with previous estimates but includes significant differences that will be discussed. The historical anthropogenic aerosol forcing is estimated as a residual from the TKM and found to be consistent with earlier moderate forcing estimates. In addition, this method is applied to future temperature projections to estimate the radiative forcing required to achieve those temperature goals, such as those set in the Paris agreement.

  7. Historical Background on the Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    RECHARD, ROBERT P.

    1999-01-01

    In 1979, six years after selecting the Delaware Basin as a potential disposal area, Congress authorized the U.S. Department of Energy to build the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, as a Research and development facility for the safe management storage, and disposal of waste contaminated with transuranic radioisotopes. In 1998, 19 years after authorization and after site selection, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified that the WIPP disposal system complied with its regulations. The EPA's decision was primarily based on the results from a performance. assessment conducted in 1996, which is summarized in this special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety. This performance assessment was the culmination of four preliminary performance assessments conducted between 1989 and 1992. This paper provides a historical setting and context for how the performance of the deep geologic repository at the WIPP was analyzed. Also included is background on political forces acting on the project

  8. Use of Subjective Global Assessment, Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 to evaluate the nutritional status of non-critically ill patients on parenteral nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badia-Tahull, M B; Cobo-Sacristán, S; Leiva-Badosa, E; Miquel-Zurita, M E; Méndez-Cabalerio, N; Jódar-Masanés, R; Llop-Talaverón, J

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the nutritional status of non-critically ill digestive surgery patients at the moment of parenteral nutrition initiation using three different nutritional test tools and to study their correlation. To study the association between the tests and the clinical and laboratory parameters used in the follow-up of PN treatment. Prospective study over 4 months. Anthropometric and clinical variables were recorded. Results of Subjective Global Assessment; Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment; and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 were compared applying kappa test. Relationship between the clinical and laboratory parameters with Subjective Global Assessment was studied by multinominal regression and with the other two tests by multiple linear regression models. Age and sex were included as adjustment variables. Malnutrition in 45 studied patients varied from 51% to 57%. Subjective Global Assessment correlated well with Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (κ = 0531 p = 0.000). The test with the greatest correlation with the clinical and analytical variables was the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002. Worse nutritional state in this test was associated with worse results in albumin (B = -0.087; CI = -0.169/-0.005], prealbumin (B = -0.005; CI = [-0.011/-0.001]), C-reactive protein (B = 0.006;CI = [0.001/ 0.011]) and leukocytes (B = 0.134; CI = [0.031/0.237]) at the en of parenteral nutrition treatment. Half of the digestive surgery patients were at malnutritional risk at the moment of initiating parenteral nutrition. Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 was the test with best association with the parameters used in the clinical follow-up of parenteral nutrition treated patients. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  9. Current and historical forest conditions and disturbance regimes in the Hoosier-Shawnee ecological assessment area

    Science.gov (United States)

    George R. Parker; Charles M. Ruffner

    2004-01-01

    We review the historical and current status of forests in the Hoosier-Shawnee Ecological Assessment Area. Native American people influenced the vegetation through fire and agricultural clearing across the region until the early 1800s when European settlers arrived. Clearing of the land for agriculture peaked in the early 1900s after which badly eroded land was...

  10. Assessing a Historically Hispanic Serving Institution Internationalization Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Iuspa

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a qualitative study conducted at a Historically Hispanic Serving Institution (HHSI to further the understanding of its internationalization decision-making process. The study uses the Internationalization Cube model to review the institution’s internal processes and policies toward internationalization and assess how its international activities align with its internationalization efforts. The Internationalization Cube, an eight-cell model, permits the positioning of Institutions of Higher Education (IHEs based on the analysis of its three dimensions and respective subcategories: policy, support, and implementation. The International Dimension Index (IDI and the Item Relevancy Index (IRI were also used to determine the level of alignment between the HHSI position on the Internationalization Cube and its international activities. The study finds that the HHSI is on Position 6 on the Internationalization Cube (priority policy, one-sided support, and systematic/structure implementation, and exhibits all the international activities considered indicators of internationalization but attention is needed to foreign language, international students, study abroad, faculty movement and involvement in international projects. The study concludes that an association exists between the institution’s position on the Internationalization Cube and its international activities, and adjustments in the institution’s policy, support, and implementation dimensions will be required to advance its position on the Internationalization Cube making its internationalization process more sustainable. This study makes a contribution to addressing the need to assess an IHE by presenting a holistic organizational framework instead of a fragmented international activities organizational analysis.

  11. Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng

    2016-01-01

    on Light Detection and Ranging-derived maximum forest canopy height (Hmax) to test hypotheses relating Hmax to current climate (water availability, ambient energy and water–energy dynamics), regional evolutionary and biogeographic history, historical climate change, and human disturbance. We derived Hmax...... biogeographic regions, supporting the role of regional evolutionary and biogeographic history in structuring broad-scale patterns in canopy height. Furthermore, there were divergent relationships between climate and Hmax between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, consistent with historical evolutionary...... contingencies modulating these relationships. Historical climate change was also related to Hmax, albeit not as strongly, with shorter canopy heights where late-Quaternary climate has been less stable. In contrast, human disturbance was only weakly related to Hmax at the scale (55 km) examined here. Synthesis...

  12. Enhancing Historical Reasoning: A Strategy Including Formative Assessment with Systematic Continuous Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Sergio; Tirado, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    Learning History promotes students' reasoning. According to Van Drie & Van Boxtel (2008), historical reasoning involves six elements: substantive concepts, metaconcepts, asking historical questions, using sources, contextualization, and argumentation. Although there are didactic strategies that promote historical reasoning, these do not…

  13. Environmental Engineering Curricula assessment in the global world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, Enrica; Catelani, Marcantonio; Manfrida, Giampaolo; Valdiserri, Juna

    2014-05-01

    Environmental engineers are technicians with specific expertise on the sustainability of human presence in the environment. Among other global dilemmas, to the environmental engineers it is often demanded to be able in developing systematic, innovative solutions in order to simultaneously meet water and energy needs, to build resilience to natural and technological disasters, to more accurately gauge and manage countries' greenhouse gas emissions. The general objectives of the Environmental Engineers are to establish actions of environmental sustainability as well as to verify progress toward global goals or international commitments. The globalization of challenges and problems to be faced, leads, in general, to the globalization of the engineering profession. In particular, since the environmental issues are without boundaries, and many and different are the involved professions and the competences, the environmental engineer must have a multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary approach to adequately answer to the demand of technical innovative knowledge at global scale. The environmental engineers, more and more, are involved in international projects were the effective collaboration requires not only the capacity to communicate in a common technical language, but also the assurance of an adequate and common level of technical competences, knowledge and understanding. The Europe-based EUR ACE system, currently operated by ENAEE - European Network for Accreditation of Engineering Education, can represent the proper framework and accreditation system in order to provide a set of measures to assess the quality of engineering degree programmes in Europe and abroad. In the global frame of the knowledge triangle: education-innovation-research, the accreditation and quality assurance of engineering curricula in Europe is discussed with reference to the Environmental engineering curricula, of the 1st and 2nd cycle, based on the European Credit Transfer System and in

  14. Tide-surge historical assessment of extreme water levels for the St. Johns River: 1928-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacopoulos, Peter

    2017-10-01

    An historical storm population is developed for the St. Johns River, located in northeast Florida-US east coast, via extreme value assessment of an 89-year-long record of hourly water-level data. Storm surge extrema and the corresponding (independent) storm systems are extracted from the historical record as well as the linear and nonlinear trends of mean sea level. Peaks-over-threshold analysis reveals the top 16 most-impactful (storm surge) systems in the general return-period range of 1-100 years. Hurricane Matthew (2016) broke the record with a new absolute maximum water level of 1.56 m, although the peak surge occurred during slack tide level (0.00 m). Hurricanes and tropical systems contribute to return periods of 10-100 years with water levels in the approximate range of 1.3-1.55 m. Extratropical systems and nor'easters contribute to the historical storm population (in the general return-period range of 1-10 years) and are capable of producing extreme storm surges (in the approximate range of 1.15-1.3 m) on par with those generated by hurricanes and tropical systems. The highest astronomical tide is 1.02 m, which by evaluation of the historical record can contribute as much as 94% to the total storm-tide water level. Statically, a hypothetical scenario of Hurricane Matthew's peak surge coinciding with the highest astronomical tide would yield an overall storm-tide water level of 2.58 m, corresponding to an approximate 1000-year return period by historical comparison. Sea-level trends (linear and nonlinear) impact water-level return periods and constitute additional risk hazard for coastal engineering designs.

  15. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  16. Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio

  17. A new approach to flood vulnerability assessment for historic buildings in England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, V.; D'Ayala, D.

    2014-05-01

    The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is presented here that studies the nature of the vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. Key findings of the work include determining the applicability of these indicators to fragility analysis, and the determination of the relative vulnerability of the three case study sites.

  18. Assessment in the global context: From ozone to ecosystems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scholes, B

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This presentation discusses the assessment in the global context: From ozone to ecosystems. Process to evaluate the status of knowledge on complex problems relevant to societies. A key element of the contemporary science-policy interface....

  19. The Spatial and Temporal Layers of Global History

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schulz-Forberg, Hagen

    2013-01-01

    Recent debates on global history have challenged the understanding of history beyond the nation-state. Simultaneously, they search for non-Eurocentric approaches. This has repercussions on the relation between historical space and time in both historical interpretation and in research design....... This article reflects on the possibilities of a global conceptual history by expanding Reinhart Koselleck’s theory of temporal layers (Zeitschichten) into global spaces. To this end, it introduces the notion of spatial layers (Raumschichten). First, historicisation and its relation to and interaction...... with spatialisation and temporalisation is pondered; then, the impact of global spatial and temporal complexities on comparative and conceptual history is considered, before, thirdly, a framework of three tensions of global history – normative, temporal and spatial – is introduced as a way to concretely unfold...

  20. An Approach for Assessing the Benefits of IT Investments in Global Supply Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Betz, Michaela; Henningsson, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    -duced by the technology as an isolated product. In contrast, research on global supply chains has shown that benefits generated from IT investments in this domain are typically generated by the coor-dinated use of many stakeholders and by technologies producing complimentary effects in systemic relationships......This paper develops and demonstrates a novel approach for ex-ante assessment of business benefits from IT investments in global supply chains. Extant IT assessment approaches are typically based on the assumption that benefit realization from IT investments involves a single stakeholder and are pro....... The assessment approach in this paper brings the contingent inter-organizational and technological dependencies of IT investments to the forefront of the assessment. It provides actors in industries relating to global supply chains the means to better apprehend the possible benefits from an IT investment...

  1. The Flickering Global City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Slater

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This article explores new dimensions of the global city in light of the correlation between hegemonic transition and the prominence of financial centers. It counterposes Braudel’s historical sequence of dominant cities to extant approaches in the literature, shifting the emphasis from a convergence of form and function to variations in history and structure. The marked increase of finance in the composition of London, New York and Tokyo has paralleled each city’s occupation of a distinct niche in world financial markets: London is the principal center of currency exchange, New York is the primary equities market, and Tokyo is the leader in international banking. This division expresses the progression of world-economies since the nineteenth century and unfolds in the context of the present hegemonic transition. By combining world-historical and city-centered approaches, the article seeks to reframe the global city and overcome the limits inherent in the paradigm of globalization.

  2. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  3. Sustainability assessment, rating systems and historical buildings Case study: Rehabilitated construction in a university site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadrykia Somayeh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the relationship between the indicators and different factors that “rating systems for green projects” concentrates on, and principles and factors considered in the rehabilitation of historical buildings. In recent years, different methods and systems concerned and improved for assessing environmental sustainability. LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design and BREEAM (Building Research Establishment (BRE Environmental Assessment Method are two most commonly used rating systems, established in U.S and UK. These systems comprise some categories and different factors to achieve environmentally responsible design. Firstly, this study focuses on the list of rating systems indicators and criteria. Secondly this paper investigates a historical rehabilitated building in the site of Tabriz Art University, as a case study and has tried to compile its green design elements. Finally, this work intends to compare mentioned elements with indicators and factors of building rating systems. Findings of the study revealed that “Materials and Resources”, “indoor environmental quality” and also “Sustainable Sites” ,the most significant indicator of rating systems, had major and important role in the rehabilitation of the building. Beyond this materials’ life cycle was considerable in construction.

  4. How Sustainable is Groundwater Abstraction? A Global Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, I.; Van Beek, R.; Gleeson, T. P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible freshwater resource and is of critical importance for irrigation, and thus for global food security. For regions with high demands, groundwater abstractions often exceed recharge and persistent groundwater depletion occurs. The direct effects of depletion are falling groundwater levels, increased pumping costs, land subsidence, and reduced baseflows to rivers. Water demands are expected to increase further due to growing population, economic development, and climate change, posing the urgent question how sustainable current water abstractions are worldwide and where and when these abstractions approach conceivable economic and environmental limits. In this study we estimated trends over 1960-2100 in groundwater levels, resulting from changes in demand and climate. We explored the limits of groundwater abstraction by predicting where and when groundwater levels drop that deep that groundwater gets unattainable for abstraction (economic limit) or, that groundwater baseflows to rivers drop below environmental requirements (environmental limit). We used a global hydrological model coupled to a groundwater model, meaning lateral groundwater flows, river infiltration and drainage, and infiltration and capillary-rise are simulated dynamically. Historical data and projections are used to prescribe water demands and climate forcing to the model. For the near future we used RCP8.5 and applied globally driest, average, and wettest GCM to test climate sensitivity. Results show that in general environmental limits are reached before economic limits, for example starting as early as the 1970s compared to the 1980s for economic limits in the upper Ganges basin. Economic limits are mostly related to regions with depletion, while environmental limits are reached also in regions were groundwater and surface water withdrawals are significant but depletion is not taking place (yet), for example in Spain and Portugal. In the near future

  5. Global education implications of the foreign pharmacy graduate equivalency examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhateeb, Fadi M; Clauson, Kevin A; Latif, David A; Al-Rousan, Rabaa M

    2010-06-15

    Although the Foreign Pharmacy Graduate Equivalency Examination (FPGEE) is not intended to measure educational outcomes or institutional effectiveness, it may be a reliable and valid criterion to assess the quality or success of international pharmacy programs. This comprehensive review describes the evolution and historical milestones of the FPGEE, along with trends in structure, administration, and passing rates, and the impact of country of origin on participant performance. Similarities between the FPGEE and the Pharmacy Curriculum Outcomes Assessment (PCOA) are also explored. This paper aims to provide a global prospective and insight for foreign academic institutions into parameters for evaluating their students' educational capabilities.

  6. African Education and Globalization: Critical Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdi, Ali A., Ed.; Puplampu, Korbla P., Ed.; Dei, George J. Sefa, Ed.

    2006-01-01

    Containing both theoretical discussions of globalization and specific case analyses of individual African countries, this collection of essays examines the intersections of African education and globalization with multiple analytical and geographical emphases and intentions. The 11 essays critically analyze the issues from historical, cultural,…

  7. GLOBALIZATION AND HIGHER EDUCATION: A WAY TO THE GLOBAL CITIZENSHIP OR LOSS OF NATIONAL IDENTITY

    OpenAIRE

    T. L. Oskolova

    2014-01-01

    The paper considers the influence of globalization (both its positive and negative effects) on higher education systems worldwide including the USA and Russia. The research analyzes the potential of higher educational institutions for raising students’ capability of living and working in the global environment, which implies both raising the global competencies and preserving the traditional national and cultural values. Applying the comparative historical method, the author traces the US his...

  8. Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valinia, Salar; Englund, Göran; Moldan, Filip; Futter, Martyn N; Köhler, Stephan J; Bishop, Kevin; Fölster, Jens

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality. © 2014 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Framework for e-learning assessment in dental education: a global model for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arevalo, Carolina R; Bayne, Stephen C; Beeley, Josie A; Brayshaw, Christine J; Cox, Margaret J; Donaldson, Nora H; Elson, Bruce S; Grayden, Sharon K; Hatzipanagos, Stylianos; Johnson, Lynn A; Reynolds, Patricia A; Schönwetter, Dieter J

    2013-05-01

    The framework presented in this article demonstrates strategies for a global approach to e-curricula in dental education by considering a collection of outcome assessment tools. By combining the outcomes for overall assessment, a global model for a pilot project that applies e-assessment tools to virtual learning environments (VLE), including haptics, is presented. Assessment strategies from two projects, HapTEL (Haptics in Technology Enhanced Learning) and UDENTE (Universal Dental E-learning), act as case-user studies that have helped develop the proposed global framework. They incorporate additional assessment tools and include evaluations from questionnaires and stakeholders' focus groups. These measure each of the factors affecting the classical teaching/learning theory framework as defined by Entwistle in a standardized manner. A mathematical combinatorial approach is proposed to join these results together as a global assessment. With the use of haptic-based simulation learning, exercises for tooth preparation assessing enamel and dentine were compared to plastic teeth in manikins. Equivalence for student performance for haptic versus traditional preparation methods was established, thus establishing the validity of the haptic solution for performing these exercises. Further data collected from HapTEL are still being analyzed, and pilots are being conducted to validate the proposed test measures. Initial results have been encouraging, but clearly the need persists to develop additional e-assessment methods for new learning domains.

  10. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 26 Appendix Y - Historical Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  11. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 14 Appendix M - Historical Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  12. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 12 Appendix K - Historical Rel. Humidity.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  13. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 16 Appendix O - Historical Soil Moisture.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  14. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  15. Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Historical and Projected Nuclear Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharecha, Pushker A.; Hansen, James E.

    2013-01-01

    In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000-7.04 million deaths and 80-240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

  16. Debate Regarding Measuring Accounting Value: Historical Cost against Fair Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Munteanu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The transition from historical cost to fair value represents an option with major implications in accounting, because it is a complex process that requires tuning to today’s trends of national and global economy. We can state that with all the advantages of using historical cost it has its limitations and it is” getting old”. That doesn’t mean that will be abandoned but substituted when it is needed with another value. At present, the lack of historical value is inconceivable; many practitioners consider it to be the best method to evaluate assets.

  17. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  18. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  19. Counterfeit Drug Penetration into Global Legitimate Medicine Supply Chains: A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Tim K.; Liang, Bryan A.; York, Peter; Kubic, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Counterfeit medicines are a global public health risk. We assess counterfeit reports involving the legitimate supply chain using 2009–2011 data from the Pharmaceutical Security Institute Counterfeit Incident System (PSI CIS) database that uses both open and nonpublic data sources. Of the 1,510 identified CIS reports involving counterfeits, 27.6% reported China as the source country of the incident/detection. Further, 51.3% were reported as counterfeit but the specific counterfeit subcategory was not known or verifiable. The most prevalent therapeutic category was anti-infectives (21.1%) with most reports originating from health-related government agencies. Geographically, Asian and Latin American regions and, economically, middle-income markets were most represented. A total of 127 (64.8%) of a total of 196 countries had no legitimate supply chain CIS counterfeit reports. Improvements in surveillance, including detection of security breaches, data collection, analysis, and dissemination are urgently needed to address public health needs to combat the global counterfeit medicines trade. PMID:25897059

  20. The Historical Significance of the Universal Declaration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eide, Asbjorn

    1998-01-01

    Explains the historical significance of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Focuses on the initiative for the Declaration and its elaboration, the precursors to modern human rights, the foundation of the Declaration, the rights contained in the Universal Declaration, three modes of human rights analysis, and global governance and human…

  1. Initial Assessment of Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKague, D. S.; Ruf, C. S.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYNSS) mission provides high temporal resolution observations of cyclones from a constellation of eight low-Earth orbiting satellites. Using the relatively new technique of Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R), all-weather observations are possible, penetrating even deep convection within hurricane eye walls. The compact nature of the GNSS-R receivers permits the use of small satellites, which in turn enables the launch of a constellation of satellites from a single launch vehicle. Launched in December of 2016, the eight CYGNSS satellites provide 25 km resolution observations of mean square slope (surface roughness) and surface winds with a 2.8 hour median revisit time from 38 S to 38 N degrees latitude. In addition to the calibration and validation of CYGNSS sea state observations, the CYGNSS science team is assessing the ability of the mission to provide estimates of cyclone size, intensity, and integrated kinetic energy. With its all-weather ability and high temporal resolution, the CYGNSS mission will add significantly to our ability to monitor cyclone genesis and intensification and will significantly reduce uncertainties in our ability to estimate cyclone intensity, a key variable in predicting its destructive potential. Members of the CYGNSS Science Team are also assessing the assimilation of CYGNSS data into hurricane forecast models to determine the impact of the data on forecast skill, using the data to study extra-tropical cyclones, and looking at connections between tropical cyclones and global scale weather, including the global hydrologic cycle. This presentation will focus on the assessment of early on-orbit observations of cyclones with respect to these various applications.

  2. Event-based historical value-at-risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogenboom, F.P.; Winter, Michael; Hogenboom, A.C.; Jansen, Milan; Frasincar, F.; Kaymak, U.

    2012-01-01

    Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an important tool to assess portfolio risk. When calculating VaR based on historical stock return data, we hypothesize that this historical data is sensitive to outliers caused by news events in the sampled period. In this paper, we research whether the VaR accuracy can be

  3. Golden Relics & Historical Standards: How the OECD is Expanding Global Education Governance through PISA for Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addey, Camilla

    2017-01-01

    Setting this paper against the backdrop of scholarly research on recent changes in the OECD's approach and workings in education, I analyse how the OECD has reinforced its infrastructural and epistemological global governance through the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) for Development (PISA-D). Drawing on qualitative data,…

  4. Inequality measures perform differently in global and local assessments: An exploratory computational experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Yen-Sheng

    2015-11-01

    Inequality measures are widely used in both the academia and public media to help us understand how incomes and wealth are distributed. They can be used to assess the distribution of a whole society-global inequality-as well as inequality of actors' referent networks-local inequality. How different is local inequality from global inequality? Formalizing the structure of reference groups as a network, the paper conducted a computational experiment to see how the structure of complex networks influences the difference between global and local inequality assessed by a selection of inequality measures. It was found that local inequality tends to be higher than global inequality when population size is large; network is dense and heterophilously assorted, and income distribution is less dispersed. The implications of the simulation findings are discussed.

  5. Global Aquaculture Performance Index (GAPI: The First Global Environmental Assessment of Marine Fish Farming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenna M.S. Stoner

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available “Sustainable” is among the most sought after of all seafood product adjectives. Ironically it is also one of the most poorly defined and understood. The Global Aquaculture Performance Index (GAPI is the first tool to assess environmental performance of global marine aquaculture production, permitting direct comparison of disparate species, production methods and jurisdictions. Clear patterns emerge from this analysis; significant variation of environmental performance is driven by the species being farmed, significant room for improvement exists across the entire sector, the worst performing players are also the fastest growing, particularly within Asia, and perhaps most importantly, this work highlights the potential trap awaiting policy makers who focus too narrowly on farm production efficiency alone as a solution to diminishing seafood availability.

  6. Historical Analyses of Disordered Handwriting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiegg, Markus; Thorpe, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Handwritten texts carry significant information, extending beyond the meaning of their words. Modern neurology, for example, benefits from the interpretation of the graphic features of writing and drawing for the diagnosis and monitoring of diseases and disorders. This article examines how handwriting analysis can be used, and has been used historically, as a methodological tool for the assessment of medical conditions and how this enhances our understanding of historical contexts of writing. We analyze handwritten material, writing tests and letters, from patients in an early 20th-century psychiatric hospital in southern Germany (Irsee/Kaufbeuren). In this institution, early psychiatrists assessed handwriting features, providing us novel insights into the earliest practices of psychiatric handwriting analysis, which can be connected to Berkenkotter’s research on medical admission records. We finally consider the degree to which historical handwriting bears semiotic potential to explain the psychological state and personality of a writer, and how future research in written communication should approach these sources. PMID:28408774

  7. Methods for global sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groen, Evelyne A.; Bokkers, Eddy; Heijungs, Reinout; Boer, de Imke J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Input parameters required to quantify environmental impact in life cycle assessment (LCA) can be uncertain due to e.g. temporal variability or unknowns about the true value of emission factors. Uncertainty of environmental impact can be analysed by means of a global sensitivity analysis to

  8. The Global Challenge for Accounting Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helliar, Christine

    2013-01-01

    Accounting and education are both global phenomena, and there is thus an argument that accounting education should be consistent and comparable across the globe. However, accounting, and accounting education are all socially constructed and globally they have been influenced by their historical, social, economic, political and cultural contexts.…

  9. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP - 1992/1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Giardini

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations, recognizing natural disasters as a major threat to human life and development, designed the 1990-1999 period as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR; UN Res. 42/169/ 1987. Among the IDNDR Demonstration Projects is the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP and implemented in the 1992-1999 period. In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation. To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP established initially a mosaic of regions and multinational test areas, then expanded to cover whole continents and finally the globe. The GSHAP Global Map of Seismic Hazard integrates the results obtained in the regional areas and depicts Peak-Ground-Acceleration (PGA with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years. All regional results and the Global Map of Seismic Hazard are published in 1999 and available on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.

  10. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  11. A global geomagnetic model based on historical and paleomagnetic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneitz, P.; Leonhardt, R.; Fabian, K.

    2015-12-01

    Two main types of data are available to reconstruct the temporal and spatial geomagnetic field evolution. Historical instrumental measurements (direct data) extend from present day to the late Middle Age, and, prior the 19th century, consist mainly of declination values. Further back in the past, field reconstructions rely exclusively on the magnetization acquired by archaeological artefacts and rocks or sediments (indirect data). The major challenges for a reliable inversion approach are the inhomogeneous data distribution, the highly variable data quality, and inconsistent quality parameters. Available historical, archeomagnetic and volcanic records have been integrated into a single database together with corresponding metadata. This combination of compilations enables a joint evaluation of geomagnetic field records from different origins. In particular, data reliability and quality of indirect records are investigated using a detailed comparison with their direct counterparts. The collection forms the basis for combined inverse modeling of the geomagnetic field evolution. The iterative Bayesian inversion approach targets the implementation of reliable error treatments, which allow to combine data from different sources. Furthermore, a verification method scrutinizing the limitations of the applied inversion scheme and the used datasets is developed. Here, we will present strategies for the integration of different data types into the modeling procedure. The obtained modeling results and their validity will be discussed.

  12. Historical Background on Assessment the Performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rechard, R.P.

    1999-06-01

    In 1979, six years after selecting the Delaware Basin as a potential disposal area, Congress authorized the US Department of Energy to build the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, as a research and development facility for the safe management, storage, and disposal of waste contaminated with transuranic radioisotopes. In 1998, 19 years after authorization and 25 years after site selection, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified that the WIPP disposal system complied with its regulations. The EPA's decision was primarily based on the results from a performance assessment conducted in 1996. This performance assessment was the culmination of four preliminary performance assessments conducted between 1989 and 1992. This report provides a historical setting and context for how the performance of the deep geologic repository at the WIPP was analyzed. Also included is background on political forces acting on the project. For example, the federal requirement to provide environmental impact statements and negotiated agreements with the State of New Mexico influenced the type of scientific areas that were investigated and the engineering analysis prior to 1989 for the WIPP.

  13. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We

  14. A new global geomagnetic model based on archeomagnetic, volcanic and historical records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneitz, Patrick; Leonhardt, Roman; Fabian, Karl

    2016-04-01

    The major challenge of geomagnetic field reconstruction lies in the inhomogeneous spatio-temporal distribution of the available data and their highly variable quality. Paleo- and archeomagnetic records provide information about the ancient geomagnetic field beyond the historical period. Typically these data types have larger errors than their historical counterparts, and investigated materials and applied experimental methods potentially bias field readings. Input data for the modelling approach were extracted from available collections of archeomagnetic, volcanic and historical records, which were integrated into a single database along with associated meta-data. The used iterative Bayesian inversion scheme targets the implementation of reliable error treatments, which allows to combine the different data types. The proposed model is scrutinized by carrying out tests with artificial records. Records are synthesized using a known field evolution generated by a geodynamo model showing realistic energy characteristics. Using the artificial field, a synthetic data set is generated that exactly mirrors the existing measured records in all meta-data, but provides data that would have been observed if the artificial field would have been real. After inversion of the synthetic data, the comparison of known artificial Gauss coefficients and modelled ones allows for the verification of the applied modelling strategy as well as for the examination of the potential and limits of the current data compilation.

  15. National Security Implications of Global Warming Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    Although numerous historical examples demonstrate how actual climate change has contributed to the rise and fall of powers, global warming , in and of...become convinced that global warming is universally bad and humans are the primary cause, political leaders may develop ill-advised policies restricting

  16. Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  17. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

    2016-12-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  18. Effort in Multitasking: Local and Global Assessment of Effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiesel, Andrea; Dignath, David

    2017-01-01

    When performing multiple tasks in succession, self-organization of task order might be superior compared to external-controlled task schedules, because self-organization allows optimizing processing modes and thus reduces switch costs, and it increases commitment to task goals. However, self-organization is an additional executive control process that is not required if task order is externally specified and as such it is considered as time-consuming and effortful. To compare self-organized and externally controlled task scheduling, we suggest assessing global subjective and objectives measures of effort in addition to local performance measures. In our new experimental approach, we combined characteristics of dual tasking settings and task switching settings and compared local and global measures of effort in a condition with free choice of task sequence and a condition with cued task sequence. In a multi-tasking environment, participants chose the task order while the task requirement of the not-yet-performed task remained the same. This task preview allowed participants to work on the previously non-chosen items in parallel and resulted in faster responses and fewer errors in task switch trials than in task repetition trials. The free-choice group profited more from this task preview than the cued group when considering local performance measures. Nevertheless, the free-choice group invested more effort than the cued group when considering global measures. Thus, self-organization in task scheduling seems to be effortful even in conditions in which it is beneficiary for task processing. In a second experiment, we reduced the possibility of task preview for the not-yet-performed tasks in order to hinder efficient self-organization. Here neither local nor global measures revealed substantial differences between the free-choice and a cued task sequence condition. Based on the results of both experiments, we suggest that global assessment of effort in addition to

  19. Assessment of Drought Severity Techniques - A Historical Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panu, U. S.; Crinklaw, T.

    2011-12-01

    Droughts are natural phenomenon experienced by all nations across the globe. Drought inherently means a scarcity of water, which adversely affects various sectors of human socio-economic spectrum, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation, water supply, industry, recreation, navigation, fish production etc. The prime cause of droughts is the occurrence of less than optimal (below normal) precipitation, which has its origin to various natural reasons, the most important being the global climatic forcing. Droughts are also referred to as sustained and regionally extensive occurrences of below average water availability which invariably cultivate into environmental disasters. The evolution of a drought event is defined into four types; meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Drought affects all aspects of societal systems irrespective of how it is defined. This has led to a wide range of studies conducted by meteorologists, ecologists, environmentalists, hydrologists, geologists and agricultural scientists in attempts to understand drought processes as required to analyze and predict the impacts of droughts. A conceptual definition, such as a shortage of water relied on by human activity, avoids quantification of a drought event. On the other hand, the purpose of an operational definition is to determine the beginning, termination, and severity of a drought event. The severity assessment of droughts is of primary importance for allocation and management of available water resources. The progression and impact of historical droughts in a region is helpful for developing relationships and techniques to investigate relevant characteristics of droughts. For optimum drought preparedness and mitigative responses, professional bodies need to provide information to private and government agencies in a manner that may also be understood by their employers, stakeholders and the general public. Drought indicators bridge this communication gap between all

  20. Global Cardiovascular Risk Assessment by Family Physicians in Suez Canal University-Family Medicine Centers-Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nour-Eldein, Hebatallah; Abdelsalam, Shimaa A; Nasr, Gamila M; Abdelwahed, Hassan A

    2013-01-01

    The close sustained contact of family physician with their patients and local community makes preventive care an integral part of their routine work. Most cardiovascular diseases (CVD) can be prevented by addressing their risk factors. There are several guidelines that recommend different CV risk assessment tools to support CV prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess awareness and attitude of global CV risk assessment and use of their tools by family physicians; aiming to improve CV prevention service. The current study is a cross-sectional descriptive analytic. Sixty-five family physicians were asked to respond to, validated anonymous questionnaire to collect data about characteristics of family physicians, their awareness, attitude, current use, barriers, and recommendations of global CV risk assessment. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 18 was used for data entry and analysis. Awareness of guidelines of global CV risk assessment was relatively higher regarding the American guidelines (30.8%) than that recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) for Egypt (20.2%). 50.8% of participants had favorable attitude. There was statistical significant relationship between attitude scores and physician characteristics; age (P = 0.003), qualification (P = 0.001) and number of patients seen per week (P = 0.009). Routine use of global CV risk assessment tools was reported only (23%) by family physicians. Relative higher attitude scores than use of global CV risk assessment tools in practice. The most frequent barriers were related to lack of resources and shortage in training/skills and the raised suggestions were towards training.

  1. The United Nations Global Compact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasche, Andreas; Waddock, Sandra; McIntosh, Malcolm

    2013-01-01

    This article reviews the interdisciplinary literature on the UN Global Compact. The review identifies three research perspectives, which scholars have used to study the UN Global Compact so far: a historical perspective discussing the Global Compact in the context of UN-business relations...... key empirical as well as conceptual scholarly contributions. The remainder of this article contains focused summaries of the articles selected for this Special Issue. All articles are introduced and evaluated against the background of the three research perspectives....

  2. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given for...

  3. Globalization: prospects for future international cooperation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinu, I.P.

    2000-01-01

    When I say 'globalization', I think to that golden beginning when President Eisenhower gave his historical speech, 'Atomic Power for Peace,' to the General Assembly of U.N.O. in 1953. He proposed, for the first time, an international cooperation for sustaining the peaceful application of nuclear energy. Years later, the global nuclear dream was shaken by Chernobyl. Humankind had seen the reverse of globalization: any lack in project, execution, or operation of an NPP has global consequences. Still, why globalization? Globalization because global urbanization trends are an important factor for energy planners and this debate is vital for fueling the bigger cities of tomorrow. (author)

  4. Development of Authentic Assessment instruments for Critical Thinking skills in Global Warming with a Scientific Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Surya Damayanti

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to develop an authentic assessment instrument to measure critical thinking skills in global warming learning and to describe the suitability, easiness, and usefulness of the use instruments which are developed base on the teacher’s opinion.   The development design is carried out by Borg & Gall (2003 development model, which is conducted with seven stages: information gathering stage, planning stage, product development stage, product test stage, product revision stage, field trial stage, and final product. The test subjects are students and teachers in SMA Lampung Tengah by using purposive sampling technique.  Global warming learning using authentic assessment consists of a series of learning activities, including observing, discussing, exploring, associating and communicating.  The results show the authentic assessment techniques global warming to measure and cultivate critical thinking skills consisting of written tests, performance, portfolios, projects, and attitudes.  The developed assessment model meets content and constructs validity, and effectively improves students' critical thinking skills and has a high level of suitability, easiness, and usefulness well-being. The assessment techniques are used in global warming learning are performance assessment techniques, portfolios, projects, products, and attitude that together contribute to the improvement of critical thinking skills on 97,4% of global warming learning.

  5. Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the IPCC on global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

    1999-01-01

    warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The "solar hypothesis" claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier paper we have demonstrated that for data covering...... lengths with the "corrected" temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.......Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of Northern Hemisphere land air temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global...

  6. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 24 Appendix W - Historical Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  7. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 22 Appendix U - Historical Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  8. Use of X-rays to treat shoulder tendonitis/bursitis: a historical assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J; Dhawan, Gaurav; Kapoor, Rachna

    2014-08-01

    This article assesses the therapeutic efficacy of ionizing radiation for the treatment of shoulder tendonitis/bursitis in the USA over the period of its use (human 1936-1961; veterinary 1954-1974). Results from ~3,500 human cases were reported in the clinical case studies over 30 articles, and indicated a high treatment efficacy (>90 %) for patients. Radiotherapy was effective with a single treatment. The duration of treatment effectiveness was prolonged, usually lasting until the duration of the follow-up period (i.e., 1-5 years). Therapeutic effectiveness was reduced for conditions characterized as chronic. Similar findings were reported with race horses in the veterinary literature. These historical findings are consistent with clinical studies over the past several decades in Germany, which have used more rigorous study designs and a broader range of clinical evaluation parameters. Radiotherapy treatment was widely used in the mid twentieth century in the USA, but was abandoned following the discovery of anti-inflammatory drugs and the fear of radiation-induced cancer. That X-ray treatment could be an effective means of treating shoulder tendonitis/bursitis, as a treatment option, and is essentially unknown by the current medical community. This paper is the first comprehensive synthesis of the historical use of X-rays to treat shoulder tendonitis/bursitis and its efficacy in the USA.

  9. Assessing global resource utilization efficiency in the industrial sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Marc A

    2013-09-01

    Designing efficient energy systems, which also meet economic, environmental and other objectives and constraints, is a significant challenge. In a world with finite natural resources and large energy demands, it is important to understand not just actual efficiencies, but also limits to efficiency, as the latter identify margins for efficiency improvement. Energy analysis alone is inadequate, e.g., it yields energy efficiencies that do not provide limits to efficiency. To obtain meaningful and useful efficiencies for energy systems, and to clarify losses, exergy analysis is a beneficial and useful tool. Here, the global industrial sector and industries within it are assessed by using energy and exergy methods. The objective is to improve the understanding of the efficiency of global resource use in the industrial sector and, with this information, to facilitate the development, prioritization and ultimate implementation of rational improvement options. Global energy and exergy flow diagrams for the industrial sector are developed and overall efficiencies for the global industrial sector evaluated as 51% based on energy and 30% based on exergy. Consequently, exergy analysis indicates a less efficient picture of energy use in the global industrial sector than does energy analysis. A larger margin for improvement exists from an exergy perspective, compared to the overly optimistic margin indicated by energy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C Guilherme; Toledo, Luís Felipe

    2017-02-08

    The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd 's global emergence , further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd -screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd -infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979-1987). We also found that clusters of Bd -positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. © 2017 The Author(s).

  11. Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C. Guilherme

    2017-01-01

    The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd's global emergence, further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd-screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd-infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979–1987). We also found that clusters of Bd-positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. PMID:28179514

  12. QUANTITATIVE MEASUREMENT AND ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION OF COMPANIES AND MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Kovtun

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The results of improving the author’s methodology linked with the assessment of companies’ and markets’ globalization level were presented in this paper. Based on the analysis of the global companies’ and global markets’ features referred to in scientific literature, the specifications which can be used to determine the globalization level of companies and markets were suggested. In addition, the globalization level of the largest top-ten companies (according to the rating of Forbes Global 2000 Leading Companies in 2015 was identified as well as that of corresponding industry markets: auto and truck manufacturers, major banks, software and programming, large department stores (retailers, telecommunication services, electronics producers, electronics, oil and gas operations.

  13. Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume II"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

    2017-08-01

    Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  14. Assessing Compatibility of Direct Detection Data: Halo-Independent Global Likelihood Analyses

    CERN Document Server

    Gelmini, Graciela B.

    2016-10-18

    We present two different halo-independent methods utilizing a global maximum likelihood that can assess the compatibility of dark matter direct detection data given a particular dark matter model. The global likelihood we use is comprised of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Poisson or Gaussian likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function and construct a two sided pointwise confidence band, which can then be compared with those derived from the extended likelihood alone to assess the joint compatibility of the data. In the second method we define a "constrained parameter goodness-of-fit" test statistic, whose $p$-value we then use to define a "plausibility region" (e.g. where $p \\geq 10\\%$). For any halo function not entirely contained within the plausibility region, the level of compatibility of the data is very low (e.g. $p < 10 \\%$). As an example we apply these methods to CDMS-II-Si and SuperCDMS data, assuming dark matter particles with elastic s...

  15. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  16. Global Reproduction and Transformation of Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobin, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Neoliberalism has spread globally and operates hegemonically in many fields, including science education. I use historical auto/ethnography to examine global referents that have mediated the production of contemporary science education to explore how the roles of teachers and learners are related to macrostructures such as neoliberalism and…

  17. Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

    2005-12-01

    The "Hotspots Project" is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk-gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area - for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5' latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on

  18. Placing Teachers in Global Governance Agendas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Susan L.

    2012-01-01

    This article examines the focus on teacher policies and practices by a range of global actors and explores their meaning for the governance of teachers. Through a historical and contemporary reading, I argue that an important shift in the locus of power to govern has taken place. I show how the mechanisms of global governance of teachers are being…

  19. Global patterns of socioeconomic biomass flows in the year 2000. A comprehensive assessment of supply, consumption and constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krausmann, Fridolin; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Gingrich, Simone; Lauk, Christian; Haberl, Helmut

    2008-01-01

    Human use of biomass has become a major component of the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen. The use of land for biomass production (e.g. cropland) is among the most important pressures on biodiversity. At the same time, biomass is indispensable for humans as food, animal feed, raw material and energy source. In order to support research into these complex issues, we here present a comprehensive assessment of global socioeconomic biomass harvest, use and trade for the year 2000. We developed country-level livestock balances and a consistent set of factors to estimate flows of used biomass not covered by international statistics (e.g. grazed biomass, crop residues) and indirect flows (i.e. biomass destroyed during harvest but not used). We found that current global terrestrial biomass appropriation amounted to 18.7 billion tonnes dry matter per year (Pg/yr) or 16% of global terrestrial NPP of which 6.6 Pg/yr were indirect flows. Only 12% of the economically used plant biomass (12.1 Pg/yr) directly served as human food, while 58% were used as feed for livestock, 20% as raw material and 10% as fuelwood. There are considerable regional variations in biomass supply and use. Distinguishing 11 world regions, we found that extraction of used biomass ranged from 0.3 to 2.8 t/ha/yr, per-capita values varied between 1.2 and 11.7 t/cap/yr (dry matter). Aggregate global biomass trade amounted to 7.5% of all extracted biomass. An analysis of these regional patterns revealed that the level of biomass use per capita is determined by historically evolved patterns of land use and population density rather than by affluence or economic development status. Regions with low population density have the highest level of per-capita biomass use, high-density regions the lowest. Livestock, consuming 30-75% of all harvested biomass, is another important factor explaining regional variations in biomass use. Global biomass demand is expected to grow during the next decades

  20. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Stephan; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Huggel, Christian; Reynolds, John; Shugar, Dan H.; Betts, Richard A.; Emmer, Adam; Glasser, Neil; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Klimeš, Jan; Reinhardt, Liam; Schaub, Yvonne; Wiltshire, Andy; Regmi, Dhananjay; Vilímek, Vít

    2018-04-01

    Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

  1. Objectives for Stakeholder Engagement in Global Environmental Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Garard

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Global environmental assessments (GEAs are among the most large-scale, formalized processes for synthesizing knowledge at the science–policy–society interface. The successful engagement of diverse stakeholders in GEAs is often described as a crucial mechanism for increasing their legitimacy, salience and credibility. However, the diversity of perspectives on the more precise objectives for stakeholder engagement remains largely unclear. The aims of this study are to categorize and characterize the diversity of perspectives on objectives for stakeholder engagement in GEAs; to explore differences in perspectives within and between different stakeholder groups and categories; and to test whether the more practical prioritization and selection of objectives in GEAs can be linked to deliberative policy learning as a higher-level rationale for stakeholder engagement. For these purposes, we conduct a grounded theory analysis and a keyword analysis of interview material and official GEA documents relating to two GEAs: UN Environment’s Fifth Global Environment Outlook and the Working Group III contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Based on the analysis, we identify six categories of objectives and present as hypotheses promising ways forward for prioritizing and characterizing objectives for stakeholder engagement in GEAs, as well as potential reasons for the differences between perspectives on objectives. This study draws attention to the need for future GEA processes to have more explicit discussions on the objectives for stakeholder engagement, as well as the importance of moving towards increasingly deliberative and inclusive assessment processes more broadly.

  2. Replacement of chlorofluorocarbons at the DOE gaseous diffusion plants: An assessment of global impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Socolof, M.L.; McCold, L.N.; Saylor, R.E.

    1997-01-01

    Three gaseous diffusion plants (GDPs) for enriching uranium maintain a large inventory of chlorofluorocarbon-114 (CFC-114) as a coolant. To address the continued use of CFC-114, an ozone-depleting substance, the US Department of Energy (DOE) considered introducing perfluorocarbons (PFCs) by the end of 1995. These PFCs would not contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion but would be larger contributors to global warming than would CFC-114. The paper reports the results of an assessment of the global impacts of four alternatives for modifying GDP coolant system operations over a three-year period beginning in 1996. The overall contribution of GDP coolant releases to impacts on ozone depletion and global warming were quantified by parameters referred to as ozone-depletion impact and global-warming impact. The analysis showed that these parameters could be used as surrogates for predicting global impacts to all resources and could provide a framework for assessing environmental impacts of a permanent coolant replacement, eliminating the need for subsequent resource-specific analyses

  3. An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hettinger, Dylan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.

  4. Equity and the Conservation of Global Ecosystem Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.D.

    This article provides a first rough sketch of how to conceptualize countries’ present and historical contributions to the loss of global ecosystem services, i.e., ecosystem services of which the delivery is global and omnidirectional, and discusses the implications of questions concerning the

  5. Future directions in psychological assessment: combining evidence-based medicine innovations with psychology's historical strengths to enhance utility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngstrom, Eric A

    2013-01-01

    Assessment has been a historical strength of psychology, with sophisticated traditions of measurement, psychometrics, and theoretical underpinnings. However, training, reimbursement, and utilization of psychological assessment have been eroded in many settings. Evidence-based medicine (EBM) offers a different perspective on evaluation that complements traditional strengths of psychological assessment. EBM ties assessment directly to clinical decision making about the individual, uses simplified Bayesian methods explicitly to integrate assessment data, and solicits patient preferences as part of the decision-making process. Combining the EBM perspective with psychological assessment creates a hybrid approach that is more client centered, and it defines a set of applied research topics that are highly clinically relevant. This article offers a sequence of a dozen facets of the revised assessment process, along with examples of corollary research studies. An eclectic integration of EBM and evidence-based assessment generates a powerful hybrid that is likely to have broad applicability within clinical psychology and enhance the utility of psychological assessments.

  6. Use of historical control data for assessing treatment effects in clinical trials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viele, Kert; Berry, Scott; Neuenschwander, Beat; Amzal, Billy; Chen, Fang; Enas, Nathan; Hobbs, Brian; Ibrahim, Joseph G.; Kinnersley, Nelson; Lindborg, Stacy; Micallef, Sandrine; Roychoudhury, Satrajit; Thompson, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Clinical trials rarely, if ever, occur in a vacuum. Generally, large amounts of clinical data are available prior to the start of a study, particularly on the current study’s control arm. There is obvious appeal in using (i.e., ‘borrowing’) this information. With historical data providing information on the control arm, more trial resources can be devoted to the novel treatment while retaining accurate estimates of the current control arm parameters. This can result in more accurate point estimates, increased power, and reduced type I error in clinical trials, provided the historical information is sufficiently similar to the current control data. If this assumption of similarity is not satisfied, however, one can acquire increased mean square error of point estimates due to bias and either reduced power or increased type I error depending on the direction of the bias. In this manuscript, we review several methods for historical borrowing, illustrating how key parameters in each method affect borrowing behavior, and then, we compare these methods on the basis of mean square error, power and type I error. We emphasize two main themes. First, we discuss the idea of ‘dynamic’ (versus ‘static’) borrowing. Second, we emphasize the decision process involved in determining whether or not to include historical borrowing in terms of the perceived likelihood that the current control arm is sufficiently similar to the historical data. Our goal is to provide a clear review of the key issues involved in historical borrowing and provide a comparison of several methods useful for practitioners. PMID:23913901

  7. Use of historical control data for assessing treatment effects in clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viele, Kert; Berry, Scott; Neuenschwander, Beat; Amzal, Billy; Chen, Fang; Enas, Nathan; Hobbs, Brian; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Kinnersley, Nelson; Lindborg, Stacy; Micallef, Sandrine; Roychoudhury, Satrajit; Thompson, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Clinical trials rarely, if ever, occur in a vacuum. Generally, large amounts of clinical data are available prior to the start of a study, particularly on the current study's control arm. There is obvious appeal in using (i.e., 'borrowing') this information. With historical data providing information on the control arm, more trial resources can be devoted to the novel treatment while retaining accurate estimates of the current control arm parameters. This can result in more accurate point estimates, increased power, and reduced type I error in clinical trials, provided the historical information is sufficiently similar to the current control data. If this assumption of similarity is not satisfied, however, one can acquire increased mean square error of point estimates due to bias and either reduced power or increased type I error depending on the direction of the bias. In this manuscript, we review several methods for historical borrowing, illustrating how key parameters in each method affect borrowing behavior, and then, we compare these methods on the basis of mean square error, power and type I error. We emphasize two main themes. First, we discuss the idea of 'dynamic' (versus 'static') borrowing. Second, we emphasize the decision process involved in determining whether or not to include historical borrowing in terms of the perceived likelihood that the current control arm is sufficiently similar to the historical data. Our goal is to provide a clear review of the key issues involved in historical borrowing and provide a comparison of several methods useful for practitioners. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. The Historical Perspective of Formation of Offshore Jurisdictions as the Global System of Tax Evasion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Synyutka Nataliya G.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this publication is improving the knowledge about the genesis of formation of offshore jurisdictions. The article characterizes the historical stages of origination of tax havens on the basis of theoretical generalizations and comparing the results of studies and publications on the specified issues. The article identifies the main groups of tax havens: offshores of the colonies of the former British Empire; the European havens; the group of simulators (such as Panama, Uruguay, Dubai, new havens in the countries with transition economy and in African countries. A comprehensive list of offshores in terms of actors by the domestic classification has been provided. The authors suggest, as a timely measures, establishing a coordinated international campaign to counter the aggressive tax planning. For the purpose of stabilization of the internal capital markets, as well as success of the fiscal control, the main directions of the anti-offshore policy have been proposed as follows: unification of the taxation rules for residents and non-residents within the offshore countries; global limitation of the bank secrecy along with transparency of information for the taxation purposes, ensuring transparency of ownership and tracing of end the beneficiaries of assets; changing the model convention for the avoidance of double taxation and the data exchange.

  9. Globalization in the post - colonial world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korobeynikova Larisa A.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a new interpretation of globalization within the boundaries of the author’s concept of soft globalization, which exploits a normatively attractive alternative to the concept of the Empire. It is argued here that the conditions of development of contemporary post - colonial world communities do not require any unification in the form of the Empire, but instead the creation of a non repressive mechanism of social regulation - the implementation of a form of soft globalization, a globalization with a mental form are expedient here. Historically, globalization occurred in a strict material(i.e. economical and military form that prompted the conditions for the evolution of civilization as the Empire: a case in which the development of the world occurs under the power of a single dominating state. Imperialistic politics leads to colonial politics formation. The history of the phenomena of civilization shows many instances of Empire globalization. Globalization in the Empire form was already observed at the time of the Roman Empire. At this time processes of development inside the Empire were manifestations of globalization in its highest cultural shape. But ancient Rome was also a social and political experiment that acquired the attributes of a purely material globalization in the end, and historically brought about the irreversible crash of the Roman Empire itself. Contemporary fluctuations referring to the process of globalization can be registered in the US’s attempts of material domination inside this or that existing case of civilization, which causes colonialism appearance. The main idea stressed in the paper is that only a mental globalization could succeed in the end.

  10. 2nd Historic Mortars Conference

    CERN Document Server

    Hughes, John; Groot, Caspar; Historic Mortars : Characterisation, Assessment and Repair

    2012-01-01

    This volume focuses on research and practical issues connected with mortars on historic structures. The book is divided into four sections: Characterisation of Historic Mortars, Repair Mortars and Design Issues, Experimental Research into Properties of Repair Mortars, and Assessment and Testing. The papers present the latest work of researchers in their field. The individual contributions were selected from the contributions to the 2nd Historic Mortars Conference, which took place in Prague, September, 22-24, 2010. All papers were reviewed and improved as necessary before publication. This peer review process by the editors resulted in the 34 individual contributions included in here. One extra paper reviewing and summarising State-of-the-Art knowledge covered by this publication was added as a starting and navigational point for the reader. The editors believe that having these papers in print is important and they hope that it will stimulate further research into historic mortars and related subjects. 

  11. Late Globalization and Evolution and Metamorphoses of Industries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boujarzadeh, Behnam; Turcan, Romeo V.; Dholakia, Nikhilesh

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we explore the effect of late globalization on evolution of industries. Specifically we investigate the impact of late globalization on the evolution and metamorphoses of Danish Textile and Fashion Industry (DTFI). Using historical data, we survey the development of DTFI between 1945...

  12. Assessing Threats and Conservation Status of Historical Centers of Oak Richness in California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Jane Easterday

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Oak trees are emblematic of California landscapes, they serve as keystone cultural and ecological species and as indicators of natural biological diversity. As historically undeveloped landscapes are increasingly converted to urban environments, endemic oak woodland extent is reduced, which underscores the importance of strategic placement and reintroduction of oaks and woodland landscape for the maintenance of biodiversity and reduction of habitat fragmentation. This paper investigated the effects of human urban development on oak species in California by first modeling historical patterns of richness for eight oak tree species using historical map and plot data from the California Vegetation Type Mapping (VTM collection. We then examined spatial intersections between hot spots of historical oak richness and modern urban and conservation lands and found that impacts from development and conservation vary by both species and richness. Our findings suggest that the impact of urban development on oaks has been small within the areas of highest oak richness but that areas of highest oak richness are also poorly conserved. Third, we argue that current policy measures are inadequate to conserve oak woodlands and suggest regions to prioritize acquisition of conservation lands as well as examine urban regions where historic centers of oak richness were lost as potential frontiers for oak reintroduction. We argue that urban planning could benefit from the adoption of historical data and modern species distribution modelling techniques primarily used in natural resources and conservation fields to better locate hot spots of species richness, understand where habitats and species have been lost historically and use this evidence as incentive to recover what was lost and preserve what still exists. This adoption of historical data and modern techniques would then serve as a paradigm shift in the way Urban Planners recognize, quantify, and use landscape

  13. The Role of Driving Factors in Historical and Projected Carbon Dynamics in Wetland Ecosystems of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Z.; Helene, G.; He, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A. D.; Bennett, A.; Breen, A. L.; Clein, J.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Johnson, K. D.; Kurkowski, T. A.; Pastick, N. J.; Rupp, S. T.; Wylie, B. K.; Zhu, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Wetlands are important terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska. It is important to understand and assess their role in the regional carbon dynamics in response to historical and projected environmental conditions. A coupled modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used to assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and fire regime on the historical and future carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. Simulations were conducted for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). These simulations estimate that the total carbon (C) storage in wetland ecosystems of Alaska is 5556 Tg C in 2009, with 89% of the C stored in soils. An estimated 175 Tg C was lost during the historical period, which is attributed to greater C lost from the Northwest Boreal LCC than C gained from the other three LCCs. The simulations for the projection period were conducted for six different scenarios driven by climate forcings from two different climate models for each of three CO2 emission scenarios. The mean total carbon storage increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 Tg C/yr to 4.42 Tg C/yr. Across the four LCCs, the largest relative C storage increase occurred in the Arctic and North Pacific LCCs. These increases were primarily driven by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than increases in heterotrophic respiration and fire emissions. Our analysis further indicates that NPP increase was primarily driven by CO2 fertilization ( 5% per 100 ppmv increase) as well as by increases in air temperature ( 1% per ° increase). Increases air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in wetlands biogenic CH4 emissions among the simulations ( 15% per ° increase). The combined effects of

  14. Lithium Resources and Production: Critical Assessment and Global Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve H. Mohr

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper critically assesses if accessible lithium resources are sufficient for expanded demand due to lithium battery electric vehicles. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR of lithium globally were estimated at between 19.3 (Case 1 and 55.0 (Case 3 Mt Li; Best Estimate (BE was 23.6 Mt Li. The Mohr 2010 model was modified to project lithium supply. The Case 1 URR scenario indicates sufficient lithium for a 77% maximum penetration of lithium battery electric vehicles in 2080 whereas supply is adequate to beyond 2200 in the Case 3 URR scenario. Global lithium demand approached a maximum of 857 kt Li/y, with a 100% penetration of lithium vehicles, 3.5 people per car and 10 billion population.

  15. Invited review: A position on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, M J; Vellinga, T; Opio, C; Falcucci, A; Tempio, G; Henderson, B; Makkar, H; Mottet, A; Robinson, T; Steinfeld, H; Gerber, P J

    2018-02-01

    The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.

  16. Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine: A global assessment of demand and supply balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cernuschi, Tania; Malvolti, Stefano; Nickels, Emily; Friede, Martin

    2018-01-25

    Over the past decade, several countries across all regions, income groups and procurement methods have been unable to secure sufficient BCG vaccine supply. While the frequency of stock-outs has remained rather stable, duration increased in 2014-2015 due to manufacturing issues and attracted the attention of national, regional and global immunization stakeholders. This prompted an in-depth analysis of supply and demand dynamics aiming to characterize supply risks. This analysis is unique as it provides a global picture, where previous analyses have focused on a portion of the market procuring through UN entities. Through literature review, supplier interviews, appraisal of shortages, stock-outs and historical procurement data, and through demand forecasting, this analysis shows an important increase in global capacity in 2017: supply is sufficient to meet forecasted BCG vaccine demand and possibly buffer market shocks. Nevertheless, risks remain mainly due to supply concentration and limited investment in production process improvements, as well as inflexibility in demand. Identification of these market risks will allow implementation of risk-mitigating interventions in three areas: (1) enhancing information sharing between major global health actors, countries and suppliers, (2) identifying interests and incentives to expand product registration and investment in the BCG manufacturing process, and (3) working with countries for tighter vaccine management. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. The global historical and future economic loss and cost of earthquakes during the production of adaptive worldwide economic fragility functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    macroseismic intensity, capital stock estimate, GDP estimate, year and the combined seismic building index (a created combination of the global seismic code index, building practice factor, building age and infrastructure vulnerability). The analysis provided three key results: a) The production of economic fragility functions from the 1900-2008 events showed very good correlation to the economic loss and cost from earthquakes from 2009-2013, in real-time. This methodology has been extended to other natural disaster types (typhoon, flood, drought). b) The reanalysis of historical earthquake events in order to check associated historical loss and costs versus the expected exposure in terms of intensities. The 1939 Chillan, 1948 Turkmenistan, 1950 Iran, 1972 Managua, 1980 Western Nepal and 1992 Erzincan earthquake events were seen as huge outliers compared with the modelled capital stock and GDP and thus additional studies were undertaken to check the original loss results. c) A worldwide GIS layer database of capital stock (gross and net), GDP, infrastructure age and economic indices over the period 1900-2013 have been created in conjunction with the CATDAT database in order to define correct economic loss and costs.

  18. Towards global consensus on core outcomes for hidradenitis suppurativa research: an update from the HISTORIC consensus meetings I and II*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorlacius, L.; Garg, A.; Ingram, J.R.; Villumsen, B.; Riis, P. Theut; Gottlieb, A.B.; Merola, J.F.; Dellavalle, R.; Ardon, C.; Baba, R.; Bechara, F.G.; Cohen, A.D.; Daham, N.; Davis, M.; Emtestam, L.; Fernández-Peñas, P.; Filippelli, M.; Gibbons, A.; Grant, T.; Guilbault, S.; Gulliver, S.; Harris, C; Harvent, C.; Houston, K.; Kirby, J.S.; Matusiak, L.; Mehdizadeh, A.; Mojica, T.; Okun, M.; Orgill, D.; Pallack, L.; Parks-Miller, A.; Prens, E.P.; Randell, S.; Rogers, C.; Rosen, C.F.; Choon, S.E.; van der Zee, H.H.; Christensen, R.; Jemec, G.B.E.

    2018-01-01

    Summary Background A core outcomes set (COS) is an agreed minimum set of outcomes that should be measured and reported in all clinical trials for a specific condition. Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) has no agreed-upon COS. A central aspect in the COS development process is to identify a set of candidate outcome domains from a long list of items. Our long list had been developed from patient interviews, a systematic review of the literature and a healthcare professional survey, and initial votes had been cast in two e-Delphi surveys. In this manuscript, we describe two in-person consensus meetings of Delphi participants designed to ensure an inclusive approach to generation of domains from related items. Objectives To consider which items from a long list of candidate items to exclude and which to cluster into outcome domains. Methods The study used an international and multistakeholder approach, involving patients, dermatologists, surgeons, the pharmaceutical industry and medical regulators. The study format was a combination of formal presentations, small group work based on nominal group theory and a subsequent online confirmation survey. Results Forty-one individuals from 13 countries and four continents participated. Nine items were excluded and there was consensus to propose seven domains: disease course, physical signs, HS-specific quality of life, satisfaction, symptoms, pain and global assessments. Conclusions The HISTORIC consensus meetings I and II will be followed by further e-Delphi rounds to finalize the core domain set, building on the work of the in-person consensus meetings. PMID:29080368

  19. Global diversification of a tropical plant growth form: environmental correlates and historical contingencies in climbing palms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couvreur, Thomas L P; Kissling, W Daniel; Condamine, Fabien L; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Rowe, Nick P; Baker, William J

    2014-01-01

    Tropical rain forests (TRF) are the most diverse terrestrial biome on Earth, but the diversification dynamics of their constituent growth forms remain largely unexplored. Climbing plants contribute significantly to species diversity and ecosystem processes in TRF. We investigate the broad-scale patterns and drivers of species richness as well as the diversification history of climbing and non-climbing palms (Arecaceae). We quantify to what extent macroecological diversity patterns are related to contemporary climate, forest canopy height, and paleoclimatic changes. We test whether diversification rates are higher for climbing than non-climbing palms and estimate the origin of the climbing habit. Climbers account for 22% of global palm species diversity, mostly concentrated in Southeast Asia. Global variation in climbing palm species richness can be partly explained by past and present-day climate and rain forest canopy height, but regional differences in residual species richness after accounting for current and past differences in environment suggest a strong role of historical contingencies in climbing palm diversification. Climbing palms show a higher net diversification rate than non-climbers. Diversification analyses of palms detected a diversification rate increase along the branches leading to the most species-rich clade of climbers. Ancestral character reconstructions revealed that the climbing habit originated between early Eocene and Miocene. These results imply that changes from non-climbing to climbing habits may have played an important role in palm diversification, resulting in the origin of one fifth of all palm species. We suggest that, in addition to current climate and paleoclimatic changes after the late Neogene, present-day diversity of climbing palms can be explained by morpho-anatomical innovations, the biogeographic history of Southeast Asia, and/or ecological opportunities due to the diversification of high-stature dipterocarps in Asian TRFs.

  20. Global assessment of the economics of land degradation and improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkonya, Ephraim

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation—defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment report as the long-term loss of ecosystems services—is a global problem, negatively affecting the livelihoods and food security of billions of people. Intensifying efforts, mobilizing more investments and strengthening the policy commitment for addressing land degradation at the global level needs to be supported by a careful evaluation of the costs and benefits of action versus costs of inaction against land degradation. Consistent with the definition of land degradation, we adopt the Total Economic Value (TEV) approach to determine the costs of land degradation and use remote sensing data and global statistical databases in our analysis. The results show that the annual costs of land degradation due to land use and land cover change (LUCC) are about US231 billion per year or about 0.41 % of the global GDP of US56.49 trillion in 2007. Contrary to past global land degradation assessment studies, land degradation is severe in both tropical and temperate countries. However, the losses from LUCC are especially high in Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 26 % of the total global costs of land degradation due to LUCC. However, the local tangible losses (mainly provisioning services) account only for 46 % of the total cost of land degradation and the rest of the cost is due to the losses of ecosystem services (ES) accruable largely to beneficiaries other than the local land users. These external ES losses include carbon sequestration, biodiversity, genetic information and cultural services. This implies that the global community bears the largest cost of land degradation, which suggests that efforts to address land degradation should be done bearing in mind that the global community,as a whole, incurs larger losses than the local communities experiencing land degradation. The cost of soil fertility mining due to using land degrading management practices on maize, rice and wheat is estimated to be

  1. Building global models for fat and total protein content in raw milk based on historical spectroscopic data in the visible and short-wave near infrared range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melenteva, Anastasiia; Galyanin, Vladislav; Savenkova, Elena; Bogomolov, Andrey

    2016-07-15

    A large set of fresh cow milk samples collected from many suppliers over a large geographical area in Russia during a year has been analyzed by optical spectroscopy in the range 400-1100 nm in accordance with previously developed scatter-based technique. The global (i.e. resistant to seasonal, genetic, regional and other variations of the milk composition) models for fat and total protein content, which were built using partial least-squares (PLS) regression, exhibit satisfactory prediction performances enabling their practical application in the dairy. The root mean-square errors of prediction (RMSEP) were 0.09 and 0.10 for fat and total protein content, respectively. The issues of raw milk analysis and multivariate modelling based on the historical spectroscopic data have been considered and approaches to the creation of global models and their transfer between the instruments have been proposed. Availability of global models should significantly facilitate the dissemination of optical spectroscopic methods for the laboratory and in-line quantitative milk analysis. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 2 Appendix A - Historical Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  3. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 20 Appendix S - Historical Sea Ice Area Fraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  4. Integrating Global Open Geo-Information for Major Disaster Assessment: A Case Study of the Myanmar Flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suju Li

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Major disasters typically impact large areas, cause considerable damages, and result in significant human and economic losses. The timely and accurate estimation of impacts and damages is essential to better understand disaster conditions and to support emergency response operations. Geo-information drawn from various sources at multi spatial-temporal scales can be used for disaster assessments through a synthesis of hazard, exposure, and post disaster information based on pertinent approaches. Along with the increased availability of open sourced data and cooperation initiatives, more global scale geo-information, including global land cover datasets, has been produced and can be integrated with other information for disaster dynamic damage assessment (e.g., impact estimation immediately after a disaster occurs, physical damage assessment during the emergency response stage, and comprehensive assessment following an emergency response. Residential areas and arable lands affected by the flood disaster occurring from July to August 2015 in Myanmar were assessed based on satellite images, GlobeLand30 data, and other global open sourced information as a study case. The results show that integrating global open geo-information could serve as a practical and efficient means of assessing damage resulting from major disasters worldwide, especially at the early emergency response stage.

  5. Global approach of mean service satisfaction assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Dooguy Kora

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical expression for mobile service satisfaction assessment has been proposed. Mobile networks users’ satisfaction is a major concern for the operators and regulators. Therefore a certain level of network qualification is required to be offered to consumers by operators thanks to the decisions initiated by the regulation authority. For the assessment of the level of satisfaction, several methodologies and tools (measuring and monitoring have emerged. Ranking in two broad categories, namely the objective and subjective methods, both have advantages as well as disadvantages. This Letter has proposed a unified approach to evaluate more objectively users’ level of satisfaction of a service based on the most common network key performance indicators (KPIs rate following the different methods. This approach's main advantage is that it has taken advantages of the different positive aspects of the existing methods and outperformed their limitations thanks to the introduced concept of global KPI. In addition, the size of samples according to each method has been considered. A mean service satisfaction theoretical expression has been proposed to regulation authority, consumers association and operators as common base of service satisfaction assessment.

  6. Global assessment of promising forest management practices for sequestration of carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winjum, J.K.; Dixon, R.K.; Schroeder, P.E.

    1991-01-01

    In the 1980s, forests covered an estimated 4.08 billion hectares and contained a carbon pool of 1,400 gigatonnes, or 64% of the total terrestrial pool. Forest biomass productivity per unit of land can be enhanced by proper management practices and it is suggested that by implementing such practices, forests could store more carbon globally and thereby slow the increase in atmospheric CO 2 . Currently, only about 10% of world forests are managed at an active level. An assessment is presented of the amount of carbon that could be sequestered globally by implementing the practices of reforestation, afforestation, natural regeneration, silviculture, and agroforestry. The assessment is based on the development of a global database on managed forest and agroforestry systems. For each of the above five practices, the database contains information on carbon sequestered per hectare, implementation costs, and estimates of the amount of land technically suitable for such practices throughout the world. Results are presented for each practice in the boreal, temperate, and tropical regions. Preliminary estimates show that promising forestry and agroforestry practices could sequester, over a 50-y period, ca 50-100 gigatonnes of carbon at a cost of $170-340 million. This would be a significant contribution as a mitigating measure regarding atmospheric CO 2 buildup and projections for global warming, at present rates of anthropogenic carbon emissions (300-400 gigatonnes carbon over 50 y). 19 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs

  7. Alfred Jules Aver's induction and Marxian historical evolution: It's ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Alfred Jules Aver's induction and Marxian historical evolution: It's lessons for the current economic global crisis. ... Economic liberalism, political manipulation and gross capitalism have been given as the major causes of the present situation in the world economy. It is on this touchstone that we tried to examine the Marxian ...

  8. Introduction to Global Urban Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Kawano, N.; Darmanto, N. S.; Dong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Urban heat island (UHI) is a widely investigated phenomenon in the field of urban climate characterized by the warming of urban areas relative to its surrounding rural environs. Being able to understand the mechanism behind the UHI formation of a city and distinguish its impact from that of global climate change is indispensable when identifying adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the lack of UHI studies many cities especially for developing countries makes it difficult to generalize the mechanism for UHI formation. Thus, there is an impending demand for studies that focus on the simultaneous analyses of UHI and its trends throughout the world. Hence, we propose a subfield of urban climatology, called "global urban climatology" (GUC), which mainly focuses on the uniform understanding of urban climates across all cities, globally. By using globally applicable methodologies to quantify and compare urban heat islands of cities with diverse backgrounds, including their geography, climate, socio-demography, and other factors, a universal understanding of the mechanisms underlying the formation of the phenomenon can be established. The implementation of GUC involves the use of globally acquired historical observation networks, gridded meteorological parameters from climate models, global geographic information system datasets; the construction of a distributed urban parameter database; and the development of techniques necessary to model the urban climate. Research under GUC can be categorized into three approaches. The collaborative approach (1st) relies on the collection of data from micro-scale experiments conducted worldwide with the aid or development of professional social networking platforms; the analytical approach (2nd) relies on the use of global weather station datasets and their corresponding objectively analysed global outputs; and the numerical approach (3rd) relies on the global estimation of high-resolution urban-representative parameters as

  9. Stem cell engineering a WTEC global assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Loring, Jeanne; McDevitt, Todd; Palecek, Sean; Schaffer, David; Zandstra, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book describes a global assessment of stem cell engineering research, achieved through site visits by a panel of experts to leading institutes, followed by dedicated workshops. The assessment made clear that engineers and the engineering approach with its quantitative, system-based thinking can contribute much to the progress of stem cell research and development. The increased need for complex computational models and new, innovative technologies, such as high-throughput screening techniques, organ-on-a-chip models and in vitro tumor models require an increasing involvement of engineers and physical scientists. Additionally, this book will show that although the US is still in a leadership position in stem cell engineering, Asian countries such as Japan, China and Korea, as well as European countries like the UK, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands are rapidly expanding their investments in the field. Strategic partnerships between countries could lead to major advances of the field and scalable expansi...

  10. Limitless Learning: Assessing Social Media Use for Global Workplace Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breunig, Karl Joachim

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This empirical paper aims to assess how social media can foster workplace learning within a globally dispersed project environment. In general, there are few studies on the use of social media in organizations, and many of these emphasize on issues related to knowledge transfer. Although learning traditionally has been as acquisition of…

  11. Globalization in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roesgaard, Marie Højlund

    2014-01-01

    Abstract for Nichibunken Copenhagen Symposium August 2012 Globalization in Japan – the case of moral education. 日本とグローバル化 - 道徳教育の件 Marie H. Roesgaard, Department of Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies, University of Copenhagen. This paper attempts to trace the history of global influence on Japan......Abstract for Nichibunken Copenhagen Symposium August 2012 Globalization in Japan – the case of moral education. 日本とグローバル化 - 道徳教育の件 Marie H. Roesgaard, Department of Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies, University of Copenhagen. This paper attempts to trace the history of global influence...... adjusting to those of the global currents that cannot be ignored. Further, I would suggest that global, or at least Western, influence is not a new thing in regard to moral education in Japan. The paper will provide an historical overview of the development of moral education since Meiji times and focus...

  12. Rethinking Assessments: Creating a New Tool Using the Zone Of Proximal Development within a Cultural-Historical Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minson V.,

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a picture of the current theoretical positions and methods used to assess children’s development. A maturational understanding of development is seen to be predominately used to inform the assessment tools which track how children develop across the 0—5 age group. This paper proposes that with the movement towards a cultural-historical understanding of development, a tool following from this standpoint should be developed. It is envisaged that a new assessment tool will be developed from this analysis. A theoretical rationale is given to support why the Zone of Proximal Development can be used to identify the indicators of children’s actual and potential levels of development, moving away from age/level based testing. Developing an assessment tool aligned to the principles of the ZPD can offer alternative method to assess children’s development in a theoretically robust way, providing empirical evidence to rethink the methodologies of child development assessments.

  13. Cluster Detection Tests in Spatial Epidemiology: A Global Indicator for Performance Assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Guttmann

    Full Text Available In cluster detection of disease, the use of local cluster detection tests (CDTs is current. These methods aim both at locating likely clusters and testing for their statistical significance. New or improved CDTs are regularly proposed to epidemiologists and must be subjected to performance assessment. Because location accuracy has to be considered, performance assessment goes beyond the raw estimation of type I or II errors. As no consensus exists for performance evaluations, heterogeneous methods are used, and therefore studies are rarely comparable. A global indicator of performance, which assesses both spatial accuracy and usual power, would facilitate the exploration of CDTs behaviour and help between-studies comparisons. The Tanimoto coefficient (TC is a well-known measure of similarity that can assess location accuracy but only for one detected cluster. In a simulation study, performance is measured for many tests. From the TC, we here propose two statistics, the averaged TC and the cumulated TC, as indicators able to provide a global overview of CDTs performance for both usual power and location accuracy. We evidence the properties of these two indicators and the superiority of the cumulated TC to assess performance. We tested these indicators to conduct a systematic spatial assessment displayed through performance maps.

  14. Cluster Detection Tests in Spatial Epidemiology: A Global Indicator for Performance Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guttmann, Aline; Li, Xinran; Feschet, Fabien; Gaudart, Jean; Demongeot, Jacques; Boire, Jean-Yves; Ouchchane, Lemlih

    2015-01-01

    In cluster detection of disease, the use of local cluster detection tests (CDTs) is current. These methods aim both at locating likely clusters and testing for their statistical significance. New or improved CDTs are regularly proposed to epidemiologists and must be subjected to performance assessment. Because location accuracy has to be considered, performance assessment goes beyond the raw estimation of type I or II errors. As no consensus exists for performance evaluations, heterogeneous methods are used, and therefore studies are rarely comparable. A global indicator of performance, which assesses both spatial accuracy and usual power, would facilitate the exploration of CDTs behaviour and help between-studies comparisons. The Tanimoto coefficient (TC) is a well-known measure of similarity that can assess location accuracy but only for one detected cluster. In a simulation study, performance is measured for many tests. From the TC, we here propose two statistics, the averaged TC and the cumulated TC, as indicators able to provide a global overview of CDTs performance for both usual power and location accuracy. We evidence the properties of these two indicators and the superiority of the cumulated TC to assess performance. We tested these indicators to conduct a systematic spatial assessment displayed through performance maps. PMID:26086911

  15. Interhemispheric Temperature Asymmetry in Historical Observations and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, A. R.; Hwang, Y.; Chiang, J. C.; Frierson, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    The surface temperature contrast between the northern and southern hemispheres -- the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) -- is an emerging indicator of global climate change, especially relevant to the latitude of the tropical rain bands. We investigate the ITA over historical observations and in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations and future projections. We find that the uneven spatial impacts of greenhouse gas forcing cause amplified warming in the Arctic and northern landmasses, resulting in an increase of the ITA. However, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, which are disproportionately emitted in the northern hemisphere, masked these effects on the ITA until around 1980. The implementation of air pollution regulations in North America and Europe combined with increased global emissions of greenhouse gases have resulted in a significant positive ITA trend since 1980. The CMIP5 historical multimodel ensembles simulate this positive ITA trend, though not its full magnitude. We explore how natural variability may account for some of the differences between the simulated and observed ITA. Future simulations project a substantial increase of the ITA over the twenty-first century, well outside its twentieth-century variability. This is largely in response to continued greenhouse gas emissions, though anthropogenic aerosol emissions are also important in some scenarios. We discuss the potential implications of this northern warming in causing a northward shift in tropical rainfall.

  16. Porphyry copper assessment of Southeast Asia and Melanesia: Chapter D in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Dicken, Connie L.; Drenth, Benjamin J.; Ludington, Steve; Robinson, Gilpin R.; Setiabudi, Bambang Tjahjono; Sukserm, Wudhikarn; Sunuhadi, Dwi Nugroho; Wah, Alexander Yan Sze; Zientek, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with member countries of the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) on an assessment of the porphyry copper resources of Southeast Asia and Melanesia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The region hosts world-class porphyry copper deposits and underexplored areas that are likely to contain undiscovered deposits. Examples of known porphyry copper deposits include Batu Hijau and Grasberg in Indonesia; Panguna, Frieda River, and Ok Tedi in Papua New Guinea; and Namosi in Fiji.

  17. Use of cartography in historical seismicity analysis: a reliable tool to better apprehend the contextualization of the historical documents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibault, Fradet; Grégory, Quenet; Kevin, Manchuel

    2014-05-01

    Historical studies, including historical seismicity analysis, deal with historical documents. Numerous factors, such as culture, social condition, demography, political situations and opinions or religious ones influence the way the events are transcribed in the archives. As a consequence, it is crucial to contextualize and compare the historical documents reporting on a given event in order to reduce the uncertainties affecting their analysis and interpretation. When studying historical seismic events it is often tricky to have a global view of all the information provided by the historical documents. It is also difficult to extract cross-correlated information from the documents and draw a precise historical context. Use of cartographic and geographic tools in GIS software is the best tool for the synthesis, interpretation and contextualization of the historical material. The main goal is to produce the most complete dataset of available information, in order to take into account all the components of the historical context and consequently improve the macroseismic analysis. The Entre-Deux-Mers earthquake (1759, Iepc= VII-VIII) [SISFRANCE 2013 - EDF-IRSN-BRGM] is well documented but has never benefited from a cross-analysis of historical documents and historical context elements. The map of available intensity data from SISFRANCE highlights a gap in macroseismic information within the estimated epicentral area. The aim of this study is to understand the origin of this gap by making a cartographic compilation of both, archive information and historical context elements. The results support the hypothesis that the lack of documents and macroseismic data in the epicentral area is related to a low human activity rather than low seismic effects in this zone. Topographic features, geographical position, flood hazard, roads and pathways locations, vineyards distribution and the forester coverage, mentioned in the archives and reported on the Cassini's map confirm this

  18. Interior thermal insulation systems for historical building envelopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerman, Miloš; Solař, Miloš; Černý, Robert

    2017-11-01

    The design specifics of interior thermal insulation systems applied for historical building envelopes are described. The vapor-tight systems and systems based on capillary thermal insulation materials are taken into account as two basic options differing in building-physical considerations. The possibilities of hygrothermal analysis of renovated historical envelopes including laboratory methods, computer simulation techniques, and in-situ tests are discussed. It is concluded that the application of computational models for hygrothermal assessment of interior thermal insulation systems should always be performed with a particular care. On one hand, they present a very effective tool for both service life assessment and possible planning of subsequent reconstructions. On the other, the hygrothermal analysis of any historical building can involve quite a few potential uncertainties which may affect negatively the accuracy of obtained results.

  19. Global assessment of onshore wind power resources considering the distance to urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva Herran, Diego; Dai, Hancheng; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko

    2016-01-01

    This study assessed global onshore wind power resources considering the distance to urban areas in terms of transmission losses and costs, and visibility (landscape impact) restrictions. Including this factor decreased the economic potential considerably depending on the level of supply cost considered (at least 37% and 16% for an economic potential below 10 and 14 US cents/kWh, respectively). Its importance compared to other factors was secondary below 15 US cents/kWh. At higher costs it was secondary only to land use, and was more important than economic and technical factors. The impact of this factor was mixed across all regions of the world, given the heterogeneity of wind resources in remote and proximal areas. Regions where available resources decreased the most included the European Union, Japan, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The supply cost chosen to evaluate the economic potential and uncertainties influencing the estimation of distance to the closest urban area are critical for the assessment. Neglecting the restrictions associated with integration into energy systems and social acceptability resulted in an overestimation of global onshore wind resources. These outcomes are fundamental for global climate policies because they help to clarify the limits of wind energy resource availability. - Highlights: • Global onshore wind resources were assessed including the distance to urban areas. • We evaluate the impact of transmission losses and cost, and visibility restrictions. • The distance to urban areas' impact was considerable, depending on the supply cost. • This factor's importance was secondary to economic, land use, and technical factors. • Neglecting this factor resulted in an overestimation of global wind resources.

  20. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Harrison

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

  1. Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Sharma, Ashish

    2015-07-01

    Both drought and aridity indicate imbalance in water availability. While drought is a natural temporal hazard, aridity is a constant climatic feature. This paper investigates the changes in drought characteristics across different aridity zones with and without consideration of potential evapotranspiration (PET), as a means to better assess drought in a warming climate. Two drought indexes are employed: (1) Standardized precipitation index (SPI), which is solely based on precipitation; and (2) Reconnaissance drought index (RDI), which, in addition to precipitation, takes PET into account. The two indexes are first employed to observed precipitation and PET data for the period 1960-2009 from the CRU (Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia) TS 3.1 database. The results indicate that although all the aridity zones experience both downward and upward drought trends, no significant trend is found over large parts of the zones. However, the agreement between SPI and RDI reduces from the hyper-arid zone on one extreme toward the humid zone on the other. In the three more humid zones (i.e. semi-arid, sub-humid, and humid), the indexes exhibit different trends, with RDI showing more decreasing trends (i.e. becoming drier). While SPI generally shows more drought prone areas than RDI for the pre-1998 period, the opposite is observed for the post-1998 period. Given the known changes to PET in observed records, and also expected increases as global warming intensifies, these results suggest that RDI will be consistently different to the SPI as global warming intensifies. This hypothesis is further tested for historic and future climate projections from the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia) Mk3.6 global climate model (GCM), with use of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways). In this case, PET is calculated using FAO56-PM model for assessment of

  2. Assessing Health Impacts within Environmental Impact Assessments: An Opportunity for Public Health Globally Which Must Not Remain Missed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Harris

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Within the member states of the United Nations 190 of 193 have regulated Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA which is a systematic process to prevent and mitigate the potential environmental impacts of industry development projects before these occur. However, the routine and comprehensive assessment of health impacts within EIAs remains underdeveloped. Focusing, as an example, on the risks to global health from the global shift in the mining industry towards Low and Middle Income Countries LMIC, this viewpoint details why connecting with EIA is an essential task for the health system. Although existing knowledge is out of date in relation to global practice we identify how health has been included, to some extent, in High Income Country EIAs and the institutional requirements for doing so. Using arguments identified by industry themselves about requiring a ‘social license to operate’, we conclude that EIA regulations provide the best current mechanism to ensure health protection is a core aspect in the decision making process  to approve projects.

  3. Africa and the green revolution : a global historical perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, E.H.P.

    2013-01-01

    After several centuries of rising global inequality during the so-called era of the Great Divergence, our generation is witnessing a new epoch in world history, one of rapid economic convergence1. Emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil and Turkey are reconfiguring the gravity centers of the

  4. Porphyry copper assessment of western Central Asia: Chapter N in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Byron R.; Mars, John L.; Denning, Paul; Phillips, Jeffrey D.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Zientek, Michael L.; Dicken, Connie L.; Drew, Lawrence J.; with contributions from Alexeiev, Dmitriy; Seltmann, Reimar; Herrington, Richard J.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey conducted an assessment of resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in the western Central Asia countries of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and the southern Urals of Kazakhstan and Russia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits; (2) compile a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) where data permit, estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates the amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in those undiscovered deposits.

  5. Graphical Methodology of Global Pollution Index for the Environmental Impact Assessment Using Two Environmental Components

    OpenAIRE

    Corneliu Cojocaru; Diana Mariana Cocârţă; Irina Aura Istrate; Igor Creţescu

    2017-01-01

    One of the applied methods for environmental impact assessment is the index of global pollution (IGP) proposed by Rojanschi in 1991. This methodology enables the global estimation for the ecosystem state affected more or less by human activities. Unfortunately, Rojanschi’s method has a limitation; it can be applied only if at least three environmental components are considered. Frequently, many environmental impact assessment applications rely on analysis of only two environmental components....

  6. Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations and food-web models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, D. A.; Buesseler, K. O.; Doney, S. C.; Sailley, S. F.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; Boyd, P. W.

    2014-03-01

    The export of organic carbon from the surface ocean by sinking particles is an important, yet highly uncertain, component of the global carbon cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite observations, including determinations of net primary production and the slope of the particle size spectrum, to drive a food-web model that estimates the production of sinking zooplankton feces and algal aggregates comprising the sinking particle flux at the base of the euphotic zone. The synthesis of observations and models reveals fundamentally different and ecologically consistent regional-scale patterns in export and export efficiency not found in previous global carbon export assessments. The model reproduces regional-scale particle export field observations and predicts a climatological mean global carbon export from the euphotic zone of 6 Pg C yr-1. Global export estimates show small variation (typically model parameter values. The model is also robust to the choices of the satellite data products used and enables interannual changes to be quantified. The present synthesis of observations and models provides a path for quantifying the ocean's biological pump.

  7. Historical Ambient Air Quality Data Inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Historical Ambient Air Quality Data Inventory contains measured and estimated data on ambient air pollution for use in assessing air quality, assisting in...

  8. Historical mitochondrial diversity in African leopards (Panthera pardus) revealed by archival museum specimens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anco, Corey; Kolokotronis, Sergios-Orestis; Henschel, Philipp; Cunningham, Seth W; Amato, George; Hekkala, Evon

    2018-04-01

    Once found throughout Africa and Eurasia, the leopard (Panthera pardus) was recently uplisted from Near Threatened to Vulnerable by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Historically, more than 50% of the leopard's global range occurred in continental Africa, yet sampling from this part of the species' distribution is only sparsely represented in prior studies examining patterns of genetic variation at the continental or global level. Broad sampling to determine baseline patterns of genetic variation throughout the leopard's historical distribution is important, as these measures are currently used by the IUCN to direct conservation priorities and management plans. By including data from 182 historical museum specimens, faecal samples from ongoing field surveys, and published sequences representing sub-Saharan Africa, we identify previously unrecognized genetic diversity in African leopards. Our mtDNA data indicates high levels of divergence among regional populations and strongly differentiated lineages in West Africa on par with recent studies of other large vertebrates. We provide a reference benchmark of genetic diversity in African leopards against which future monitoring can be compared. These findings emphasize the utility of historical museum collections in understanding the processes that shape present biodiversity. Additionally, we suggest future research to clarify African leopard taxonomy and to differentiate between delineated units requiring monitoring or conservation action.

  9. The assessment of Global Precipitation Measurement estimates over the Indian subcontinent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murali Krishna, U. V.; Das, Subrata Kumar; Deshpande, Sachin M.; Doiphode, S. L.; Pandithurai, G.

    2017-08-01

    Accurate and real-time precipitation estimation is a challenging task for current and future spaceborne measurements, which is essential to understand the global hydrological cycle. Recently, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites were launched as a next-generation rainfall mission for observing the global precipitation characteristics. The purpose of the GPM is to enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global precipitation. The main objective of the present study is to assess the rainfall products from the GPM, especially the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the GPM (IMERG) data by comparing with the ground-based observations. The multitemporal scale evaluations of rainfall involving subdaily, diurnal, monthly, and seasonal scales were performed over the Indian subcontinent. The comparison shows that the IMERG performed better than the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-3B42, although both rainfall products underestimated the observed rainfall compared to the ground-based measurements. The analyses also reveal that the TRMM-3B42 and IMERG data sets are able to represent the large-scale monsoon rainfall spatial features but are having region-specific biases. The IMERG shows significant improvement in low rainfall estimates compared to the TRMM-3B42 for selected regions. In the spatial distribution, the IMERG shows higher rain rates compared to the TRMM-3B42, due to its enhanced spatial and temporal resolutions. Apart from this, the characteristics of raindrop size distribution (DSD) obtained from the GPM mission dual-frequency precipitation radar is assessed over the complex mountain terrain site in the Western Ghats, India, using the DSD measured by a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer.

  10. Global bioethics: utopia or reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellsten, Sirkku K

    2008-08-01

    This article discusses what 'global bioethics' means today and what features make bioethical research 'global'. The article provides a historical view of the development of the field of 'bioethics', from medical ethics to the wider study of bioethics in a global context. It critically examines the particular problems that 'global bioethics' research faces across cultural and political borders and suggests some solutions on how to move towards a more balanced and culturally less biased dialogue in the issues of bioethics. The main thesis is that we need to bring global and local aspects closer together when looking for international guidelines, by paying more attention to particular cultures and local economic and social circumstances in reaching a shared understanding of the main values and principles of bioethics, and in building 'biodemocracy'.

  11. Global Standards of Market Civilization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Global Standards of Market Civilization brings together leading scholars, representing a range of political views, to investigate how global 'standards of market civilization' have emerged, their justification, and their political, economic and social impact. Key chapters show how as the modern...... thought, as well as its historical application part II presents original case studies that demonstrate the emergence of such standards and explore the diffusion of liberal capitalist ideas through the global political economy and the consequences for development and governance; the International Monetary...... Fund's capacity to formulate a global standard of civilization in its reform programs; and problems in the development of the global trade, including the issue of intellectual property rights. This book will be of strong interest to students and scholars in wide range of fields relating to the study...

  12. Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchin, Peter; Currie, Thomas E.; Whitehouse, Harvey; François, Pieter; Feeney, Kevin; Mullins, Daniel; Hoyer, Daniel; Collins, Christina; Grohmann, Stephanie; Mendel-Gleason, Gavin; Turner, Edward; Dupeyron, Agathe; Cioni, Enrico; Reddish, Jenny; Levine, Jill; Jordan, Greine; Brandl, Eva; Williams, Alice; Cesaretti, Rudolf; Krueger, Marta; Ceccarelli, Alessandro; Figliulo-Rosswurm, Joe; Tuan, Po-Ju; Peregrine, Peter; Marciniak, Arkadiusz; Preiser-Kapeller, Johannes; Kradin, Nikolay; Korotayev, Andrey; Palmisano, Alessio; Baker, David; Bidmead, Julye; Bol, Peter; Christian, David; Cook, Connie; Covey, Alan; Feinman, Gary; Júlíusson, Árni Daníel; Kristinsson, Axel; Miksic, John; Mostern, Ruth; Petrie, Cameron; Rudiak-Gould, Peter; ter Haar, Barend; Wallace, Vesna; Mair, Victor; Xie, Liye; Baines, John; Bridges, Elizabeth; Manning, Joseph; Lockhart, Bruce; Bogaard, Amy; Spencer, Charles

    2018-01-01

    Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as “Seshat: Global History Databank.” We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of governance, and information systems. Our analyses revealed that these different characteristics show strong relationships with each other and that a single principal component captures around three-quarters of the observed variation. Furthermore, we found that different characteristics of social complexity are highly predictable across different world regions. These results suggest that key aspects of social organization are functionally related and do indeed coevolve in predictable ways. Our findings highlight the power of the sciences and humanities working together to rigorously test hypotheses about general rules that may have shaped human history. PMID:29269395

  13. Damage Identification and Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Historic Masonry Chimney

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Giovanna Masciotta

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The present paper deals with the dynamic characterisation of a historical masonry chimney aimed at identifying the structural damage and assessing its seismic performance. The structure was severely damaged by a lightning accident and in-depth repair works were executed to re-instate its sound configuration. The case study is fully detailed, including the aspects of survey, inspection, diagnosis, and evolution of the dynamic properties of the system throughout the structural intervention. Considering the explicit dependence of the power spectral densities of measured nodal processes on their frequency content, a spectrum-driven algorithm is used to detect and locate the damage. The paper shows that the eigenparameters obtained from the decomposition of the response power spectrum matrix are sensitive to system’s changes caused by evolutionary damage scenarios, thereby resulting excellent indicators for assessing both the presence and position of structural vulnerabilities. The results are compared with the ones from other modal-based damage identification methods and the strengths/limitations of the tools currently available in literature are extensively discussed. Finally, based on the crack pattern surveyed before the repair works, the weakest links of the chimney are identified and the most meaningful collapse mechanisms are analysed to verify the seismic capacity of the structure. According to the results of the kinematic analysis, the chimney does withstand the maximum site peak ground acceleration.

  14. Global Hail Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

    2012-04-01

    Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

  15. Global assessment of internal audit competence: Does one size fi t all?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Data from the Institute of Internal Auditors' (IIA's) latest global Common Body of Knowledge ... Australia consistently indicated different perceptions of the levels of ... Australia's need for a country-specifi c internal audit competency assessment.

  16. Assessment of global phase uncertainty in case-control studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Houwelingen Hans C

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In haplotype-based candidate gene studies a problem is that the genotype data are unphased, which results in haplotype ambiguity. The measure 1 quantifies haplotype predictability from genotype data. It is computed for each individual haplotype, and for a measure of global relative efficiency a minimum value is suggested. Alternatively, we developed methods directly based on the information content of haplotype frequency estimates to obtain global relative efficiency measures: and based on A- and D-optimality, respectively. All three methods are designed for single populations; they can be applied in cases only, controls only or the whole data. Therefore they are not necessarily optimal for haplotype testing in case-control studies. Results A new global relative efficiency measure was derived to maximize power of a simple test statistic that compares haplotype frequencies in cases and controls. Application to real data showed that our proposed method gave a clear and summarizing measure for the case-control study conducted. Additionally this measure might be used for selection of individuals, who have the highest potential for improving power by resolving phase ambiguity. Conclusion Instead of using relative efficiency measure for cases only, controls only or their combined data, we link uncertainty measure to case-control studies directly. Hence, our global efficiency measure might be useful to assess whether data are informative or have enough power for estimation of a specific haplotype risk.

  17. Patient-generated subjective global assessment: Innovation from paper to digital app

    OpenAIRE

    Ottery, Faith D.; Kasenic, Suzanne; Sealy, Martine J.; DeBolt, Susan P.; Isenring, Elizabeth; Jager-Wittenaar, Harriët

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), including the PG-SGA Short Form (SF, aka ‘abridged’), was originally developed in the mid 1990’s as a scored, patient self-report, paperbased instrument and has been widely validated. The PG-SGA (SF) has been used for screening, assessment and monitoring, triageing for multimodal intervention and for evaluation of clinical and health economic outcomes. There have been ad hoc translations, often with permission of the origin...

  18. Initiatives supporting evidence informed health system policymaking in Cameroon and Uganda: a comparative historical case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ongolo-Zogo, Pierre; Lavis, John N; Tomson, Goran; Sewankambo, Nelson K

    2014-11-29

    There is a scarcity of empirical data on institutions devoted to knowledge brokerage and their influence in Africa. Our objective was to describe two pioneering Knowledge Translation Platforms (KTPs) supporting evidence informed health system policymaking (EIHSP) in Cameroon and Uganda since 2006. This comparative historical case study of Evidence Informed Policy Network (EVIPNet) Cameroon and Regional East African Community Health Policy Initiative (REACH-PI) Uganda using multiple methods comprised (i) a descriptive documentary analysis for a narrative historical account, (ii) an interpretive documentary analysis of the context, profiles, activities and outputs inventories and (iii) an evaluative survey of stakeholders exposed to evidence briefs produced and policy dialogues organized by the KTPs. Both initiatives benefited from the technical and scientific support from the global EVIPNet resource group. EVIPNet Cameroon secretariat operates with a multidisciplinary group of part-time researchers in a teaching hospital closely linked to the ministry of health. REACH-PI Uganda secretariat operates with a smaller team of full time staff in a public university. Financial resources were mobilized from external donors to scale up capacity building, knowledge management, and linkage and exchange activities. Between 2008 and 2012, twelve evidence briefs were produced in Cameroon and three in Uganda. In 2012, six rapid evidence syntheses in response to stakeholders' urgent needs were produced in Cameroon against 73 in Uganda between 2010 and 2012. Ten policy dialogues (seven in Cameroon and three in Uganda) informed by pre-circulated evidence briefs were well received. Both KTPs contributed to developing and testing new resources and tools for EIHSP. A network of local and global experts has created new spaces for evidence informed deliberations on priority health policy issues related to MDGs. This descriptive historical account of two KTPs housed in government

  19. History, Historical and Historicity in Heidegger

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Manuel CHILLÓN

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to the “Historie” is possible as “Geschichte”, that is, so that the events are more than mere collections of past vestiges, it is necessary that the historical (geschichtlich of history is understood as enshrined in the historicity, in Geschichtlichkeit. In § 6 of the Introduction to ‘Being and Time’ Heidegger understands that the historicity refers to the temporality of Dasein, to its finitude. Thiking of the historicity requires, as its main task, overcoming history as history of entities, in terms of history of forgotten being. And, of course, to think the being, the happening of being and Dasein which, as such event, is being, is occurring , it is historicizing .

  20. A new approach to flood loss estimation and vulnerability assessment for historic buildings in England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, V.; D'Ayala, D.

    2013-10-01

    The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is proposed that studies the nature of vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide key findings and guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of key vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. This in turn facilitates the production of strategies for mitigating and managing the losses threatened by such extreme climate events.

  1. Assessment of global cloud datasets from satellites: Project and database initiated by the GEWEX radiation panel

    OpenAIRE

    Stubenrauch , C.J.; Rossow , W.B.; Kinne , S.; Ackerman , S.; Cesana , G.; Chepfer , H.; Di Girolamo , L.; Getzewich , B.; Guignard , A.; Heidinger , A.; Maddux , B.C.; Menzel , W.P.; Minnis , P.; Pearl , C.; Platnick , S.

    2013-01-01

    International audience; The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Radiation Panel initiated the GEWEX Cloud Assessment in 2005 to compare available, global, long-term cloud data products with the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). The GEWEX Cloud Assessment database included cloud properties retrieved from different satellite sensor measurements, taken at various local times and over various time periods. The relevant passive satellite sensors measured radia...

  2. Development of a Historical Hydrological online research and application platform for Switzerland - Historical Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland (HHAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetter, Oliver

    2017-04-01

    It is planned to develop and maintain a historical hydrological online platform for Switzerland, which shall be specially designed for the needs of research and federal, cantonal or private institutions being interested in hydrological risk assessment and protection measures. The aim is on the one hand to facilitate the access to raw data which generally is needed for further historical hydrological reconstruction and quantification, so that future research will be achieved in significantly shorter time. On the other hand, new historical hydrological research results shall be continuously included in order to establish this platform as a useful tool for the assessment of hydrological risk by including the long term experience of reconstructed pre-instrumental hydrological extreme events like floods and droughts. Meteorological parameters that may trigger extreme hydrological events, like monthly or seasonally resolved reconstructions of temperature and precipitation shall be made accessible in this platform as well. The ultimate goal will be to homogenise the reconstructed hydrological extreme events which usually appeared in the pre anthropogenic influence period under different climatological as well as different hydrological regimes and topographical conditions with the present day state. Long term changes of reconstructed small- to extreme flood seasonality, based on municipal accounting records, will be included in the platform as well. This helps - in combination with the before mentioned meteorological parameters - to provide an increased understanding of the major changes in the generally complex overall system that finally causes hydrological extreme events. The goal of my presentation at the Historical Climatology session is to give an overview about the applied historical climatological and historical hydrological methodologies that are applied on the historical raw data (evidence) to reconstruct pre instrumental hydrological events and meteorological

  3. Mould growth prediction by computational simulation on historic buildings

    OpenAIRE

    Krus, M.; Kilian, R.; Sedlbauer, K.

    2007-01-01

    Historical buildings are often renovated with a high expenditure of time and money without investigating and considering the causes of the damages. In many cases historic buildings can only be maintained by changing their usage. This change of use may influence the interior climate enormously. To assess the effect on the risk of mould growth on building parts or historic monuments a predictive model has been developed recently, describing the hygrothermal behaviour of the spore. It allows for...

  4. The Global Menace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodges, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Summary The history of medicine has gone ‘global.’ Why? Can the proliferation of the ‘global’ in our writing be explained away as a product of staying true to our historical subjects’ categories? Or has this historiography in fact delivered a new ‘global’ problematic or performed serious ‘global’ analytic work? The situation is far from clear, and it is the tension between the global as descriptor and an analytics of the global that concerns me here. I have three main concerns: (1) that there is an epistemic collusion between the discourses of universality that inform medical science and global-talk; (2) that the embrace of the ‘global’ authorises a turning away from analyses of power in history-writing in that (3) this turning away from analyses of power in history-writing leads to scholarship that reproduces rather than critiques globalisation as a set of institutions, discourses and practices. PMID:26345469

  5. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 18 Appendix Q - Historical Maximum Near-Surface Wind Speed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconom ic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  6. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 4 Appendix C - Historical Maximum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  7. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 6 Appendix E - Historical Minimum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  8. Providing Context for Complexity: Using Infographics and Conceptual Models to Teach Global Change Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding modern and historical global changes requires interdisciplinary knowledge of the physical and life sciences. The Understanding Global Change website from the UC Museum of Paleontology will use a focal infographic that unifies diverse content often taught in separate K-12 science units. This visualization tool provides scientists with a structure for presenting research within the broad context of global change, and supports educators with a framework for teaching and assessing student understanding of complex global change processes. This new approach to teaching the science of global change is currently being piloted and refined based on feedback from educators and scientists in anticipation of a 2016 website launch. Global change concepts are categorized within the infographic as causes of global change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, volcanism), ongoing Earth system processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the greenhouse effect), and the changes scientists measure in Earth's physical and biological systems (e.g., temperature, extinctions/radiations). The infographic will appear on all website content pages and provides a template for the creation of flowcharts, which are conceptual models that allow teachers and students to visualize the interdependencies and feedbacks among processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The development of this resource is timely given that the newly adopted Next Generation Science Standards emphasize cross-cutting concepts, including model building, and Earth system science. Flowchart activities will be available on the website to scaffold inquiry-based lessons, determine student preconceptions, and assess student content knowledge. The infographic has already served as a learning and evaluation tool during professional development workshops at UC Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. At these workshops, scientists and educators used the infographic

  9. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grubler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Victor, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    Technological choices largely determine the long-term characteristics of industrial society, including impacts on the natural environment. However, the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized. Based on work over two decades at IIASA, we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming. Our focus is energy technologies, the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems. We show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques. In the historical record, we identify characteristic 'learning rates' that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. We also identify patterns, processes and timescales that typify the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks typically require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. These simple observations allow three improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change. One is that the replacement of long-lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution - from coal to oil to gas. Such replacement has 'decarbonized' the global primary energy supply 0.3% per year. In contrast, most baseline projections for emissions of carbon, the chief cause of global warming, ignore this robust historical trend and show Iittle or no decarbonization. A second improvement is that by incorporating learning curves and

  10. National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charles H.; Romine, Bradley M.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy beaches of the United States are some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations. Coastal property constitutes some of the most valuable real estate in the country. Beaches are an ephemeral environment between water and land with unique and fragile natural ecosystems that have evolved in equilibrium with the ever-changing winds, waves, and water levels. Beachfront lands are the site of intense residential and commercial development even though they are highly vulnerable to several natural hazards, including marine inundation, flooding and drainage problems, effects of storms, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. Because the U.S. population continues to shift toward the coast where valuable coastal property is vulnerable to erosion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a national assessment of coastal change. One aspect of this effort, the National Assessment of Shoreline Change, uses shoreline position as a proxy for coastal change because shoreline position is one of the most commonly monitored indicators of environmental change (for example, Fletcher, 1992; Dolan and others, 1991; Douglas and others, 1998; Galgano and others, 1998). Additionally, the National Research Council (1990) recommended the use of historical shoreline analysis in the absence of a widely accepted model of shoreline change.

  11. Successful global assessments and monitoring: The roles of the international community and the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, H.G.

    1991-01-01

    Successful global assessments and monitoring of natural resources requires teamwork between participating nations and the international communities charged with the responsibility for collecting and disseminating information. In an attempt to identify emerging information needs and to promote coordination, the International Union of Forestry Research Organizations (IUFRO) and other national and international groups held a major conference and workshop in Venice, Italy, on global monitoring last September. The results of the meeting and subsequent events in Montreal indicated a need for more aggressive leadership at the international level and more cooperation at the national level. This paper reports on the outcome of the Venice conference and list some things that the international community and the United States must do to make global assessments and monitoring a reality

  12. Reconstruction of spatially detailed global map of NH4+ and NO3- application in synthetic nitrogen fertilizer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishina, Kazuya; Ito, Akihiko; Hanasaki, Naota; Hayashi, Seiji

    2017-02-01

    new map can be utilized as input data to global model studies and bring new insights for the assessment of historical terrestrial N cycling changes. Datasets available at PANGAEA.861203" target="_blank">doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.861203.

  13. Comprehensive assessment of heavy metal pollution in topsoil of historical urban park on an example of the Planty Park in Krakow (Poland).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gąsiorek, Michał; Kowalska, Joanna; Mazurek, Ryszard; Pająk, Marek

    2017-07-01

    The Historic Centre of Krakow is on the UNESCO World Heritage List and includes the Main Market Square, which is surrounded by the historical Planty Park. Soils in the Planty Park are an example of a green area in an urban environment that is particularly exposed to heavy metal-rich pollution. To assess the relative content of heavy metals and evaluate the sources of the contamination, pollution indices were used: Enrichment Factor (EF), Geoaccumulation Index (I geo ), Nemerow Pollution Index (PI Nemerow ), Potential Ecological Risk (RI), and Contamination Security Index (CSI). Pollution indices were calculated on the base of both reference and local geochemical backgrounds. Sources of heavy metals in soils of Planty Park are related to its historic role as a metallurgy centre, as well as the more recent urban and industrial development of Krakow centre and neighbouring areas. It is concluded that increased accumulation of heavy metals is an effect of growing numbers of emission sources. The variation of each element may not unambiguously reflect the natural or anthropogenic effect on the Planty Park soil cover. In general, the present and historical emission of pollutants and heavy metal-rich contamination has led to a mixed origin of Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Moreover, it can be assumed that the content of Cr and Ni is derived from natural sources. Furthermore, a comparison of the quality of the Planty Park topsoil with the heavy metal content assessment in other urban parks in the world has been presented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, D S; Mahowald, N M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ T s ), future Δ T s through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ T s that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ T s ). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ T s from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO 2 -equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ T s evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ T s attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)

  15. Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.

    2017-11-01

    There is an international effort to attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, however, there is a lack of quantitative analysis on the benefits of holding global warming to such a level. In this study, coupled climate model simulations are used to form large ensembles of simulated years at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming. These ensembles are used to assess projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of European climate extremes at these warming levels. For example, we find that events similar to the European record hot summer of 2003, which caused tens of thousands of excess deaths, would be very likely at least 24% less frequent in a world at 1.5 °C global warming compared to 2 °C global warming. Under 2 °C of global warming, we could expect such extreme summer temperatures in the historical record to become commonplace, occurring in at least one-in-every-two years. We find that there are very clear benefits to limiting global warming for the European continent, including fewer and less intense heat and rainfall extremes when compared with higher levels of global warming.

  16. Patient-generated subjective global assessment : innovation from paper to digital app

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ottery, Faith D.; Isenring, Elizabeth; Kasenic, Suzanne; DeBolt, Susan P.; Sealy, Martine; Jager-Wittenaar, Harriët

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), including the PG-SGA Short Form (SF, aka ‘abridged’), was originally developed in the mid 1990’s as a scored, patient self-report, paperbased instrument and has been widely validated. The PG-SGA (SF) has been used for screening,

  17. Patient-generated subjective global assessment : Innovation from paper to digital app

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faith D. Ottery; Suzanne Kasenic; Martine J. Sealy; Susan P. DeBolt; Elizabeth Isenring; Dr. Harriët Jager-Wittenaar

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA), including the PG-SGA Short Form (SF, aka ‘abridged’), was originally developed in the mid 1990’s as a scored, patient self-report, paperbased instrument and has been widely validated. The PG-SGA (SF) has been used for screening,

  18. Globalization, Migration, and Local Communities, one adverse ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Globalization, Migration, and Local Communities, one adverse upshot: A Case Review of ... PROMOTING ACCESS TO AFRICAN RESEARCH ... Historically, the lack of highly skilled labour in South Africa has been linked to the legacy of ...

  19. An Assessment of Global Oral Health Education in U.S. Dental Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Janet; Gluch, Joan I

    2017-02-01

    Dental schools need to produce graduates who are adequately prepared to respond to the complex needs and challenges of the increasingly diverse and interconnected world in which they will practice dentistry. To enhance discussions about the coverage of global oral health competencies in dental education, the aims of this study were to assess how global health education is currently incorporated into predoctoral dental training in the U.S. and which global oral health competencies are being covered. Surveys were emailed to all 64 accredited U.S. dental schools during the 2015-16 academic year. Respondents from 52 schools completed the survey (response rate 81%). The results showed that social determinants of oral diseases and conditions, how to identify barriers to use of oral health services, and how to work with patients who have limited dental health literacy were covered in the greatest number of responding schools' curricula. Key areas of global health curricula that were covered rarely included global dental infrastructure, data collection design, and horizontal and vertical programming approaches to health improvement. Despite current dialogue on the addition of global oral health competencies to dental curricula, only 41% of the responding schools were currently planning to expand their global oral health education. Based on these results, the authors conclude that it may be most feasible for dental schools to add recommended global oral health competencies to their curricula by incorporating didactic content into already established courses.

  20. Assessments of global drivers of vaccine hesitancy in 2014-Looking beyond safety concerns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Marti

    Full Text Available Vaccine hesitancy has become the focus of growing attention and concern globally despite overwhelming evidence of the value of vaccines in preventing disease and saving the lives of millions of individuals every year. Measuring vaccine hesitancy and its determinants worldwide is important in order to understand the scope of the problem and for the development of evidence-based targeted strategies to reduce hesitancy. Two indicators to assess vaccine hesitancy were developed to capture its nature and scope at the national and subnational level to collect data in 2014: 1 The top 3 reasons for not accepting vaccines according to the national schedule in the past year and whether the response was opinion- or assessment-based and 2 Whether an assessment (or measurement of the level of confidence in vaccination had taken place at national or subnational level in the previous 5 years. The most frequently cited reasons for vaccine hesitancy globally related to (1 the risk-benefit of vaccines, (2 knowledge and awareness issues, (3 religious, cultural, gender or socio-economic factors. Major issues were fear of side effects, distrust in vaccination and lack of information on immunization or immunization services. The analysis revealed that 29% of all countries had done an assessment of the level of confidence in their country, suggesting that vaccine confidence was an issue of importance. Monitoring vaccine hesitancy is critical because of its influence on the success of immunization programs. To our knowledge, the proposed indicators provide the first global snapshot of reasons driving vaccine hesitancy and depicting its widespread nature, as well as the extent of assessments conducted by countries.

  1. Processes of social flourishing and their liminal collapse: elements to a genealogy of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szakolczai, Arpad

    2016-09-01

    This article aims at exploring a long-term historical perspective on which contemporary globalization can be more meaningfully situated. A central problem with established approaches to globalization is that they are even more presentist than the literature on modernization was. Presentism not only means the ignoring of history, but also the unreflective application to history of concepts taken from the study of the modern world. In contrast, it is argued that contemporary globalization is not a unique development, but rather is a concrete case of a historical type. Taking as its point of departure the spirit, rather than the word, of Max Weber, this article extends the scope of sociological investigation into archaeological evidence. Having a genealogical design and introducing the concept of 'liminality', the article approaches the modern process of globalization through reconstructing the internal dynamics of another type of historical change called 'social flourishing'. Taking up the Weberian approach continued by Eisenstadt in his writings on 'axial age', it moves away from situations of crisis as reference point, shifting attention to periods of revival by introducing the term 'epiphany'. Through the case of early Mesopotamia, it shows how social flourishing can be transmogrified into globalizing growth, gaining a new perspective concerning the kind of 'animating spirit' that might have driven the shift from Renaissance to Reformation, the rise of modern colonialism, or contemporary globalization. More generally, it will retrieve the long-term historical background of the axial age and demonstrate the usefulness and importance of archaeological evidence for sociology. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2016.

  2. Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

  3. Use of global coronary heart disease risk assessment in practice: a cross-sectional survey of a sample of U.S. physicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shillinglaw Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global coronary heart disease (CHD risk assessment is recommended to guide primary preventive pharmacotherapy. However, little is known about physicians' understanding and use of global CHD risk assessment. Our objective was to examine US physicians' awareness, use, and attitudes regarding global CHD risk assessment in clinical practice, and how these vary by provider specialty. Methods Using a web-based survey of US family physicians, general internists, and cardiologists, we examined awareness of tools available to calculate CHD risk, method and use of CHD risk assessment, attitudes towards CHD risk assessment, and frequency of using CHD risk assessment to guide recommendations of aspirin, lipid-lowering and blood pressure (BP lowering therapies for primary prevention. Characteristics of physicians indicating they use CHD risk assessments were compared in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Results A total of 952 physicians completed the questionnaire, with 92% reporting awareness of tools available to calculate CHD global risk. Among those aware of such tools, over 80% agreed that CHD risk calculation is useful, improves patient care, and leads to better decisions about recommending preventive therapies. However, only 41% use CHD risk assessment in practice. The most commonly reported barrier to CHD risk assessment is that it is too time consuming. Among respondents who calculate global CHD risk, 69% indicated they use it to guide lipid lowering therapy recommendations; 54% use it to guide aspirin therapy recommendations; and 48% use it to guide BP lowering therapy. Only 40% of respondents who use global CHD risk routinely tell patients their risk. Use of a personal digital assistant or smart phone was associated with reported use of CHD risk assessment (adjusted OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.17-2.12. Conclusions Reported awareness of tools to calculate global CHD risk appears high, but the majority of physicians in this sample do not

  4. Assessing the vertical structure of baroclinic tidal currents in a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timko, Patrick; Arbic, Brian; Scott, Robert

    2010-05-01

    Tidal forcing plays an important role in many aspects of oceanography. Mixing, transport of particulates and internal wave generation are just three examples of local phenomena that may depend on the strength of local tidal currents. Advances in satellite altimetry have made an assessment of the global barotropic tide possible. However, the vertical structure of the tide may only be observed by deployment of instruments throughout the water column. Typically these observations are conducted at pre-determined depths based upon the interest of the observer. The high cost of such observations often limits both the number and the length of the observations resulting in a limit to our knowledge of the vertical structure of tidal currents. One way to expand our insight into the baroclinic structure of the ocean is through the use of numerical models. We compare the vertical structure of the global baroclinic tidal velocities in 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) to a global database of current meter records. The model output is a subset of a 5 year global simulation that resolves the eddying general circulation, barotropic tides and baroclinic tides using 32 vertical layers. The density structure within the simulation is both vertically and horizontally non-uniform. In addition to buoyancy forcing the model is forced by astronomical tides and winds. We estimate the dominant semi-diurnal (M2), and diurnal (K1) tidal constituents of the model data using classical harmonic analysis. In regions where current meter record coverage is adequate, the model skill in replicating the vertical structure of the dominant diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal currents is assessed based upon the strength, orientation and phase of the tidal ellipses. We also present a global estimate of the baroclinic tidal energy at fixed depths estimated from the model output.

  5. Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Creutzig, Felix; Corbera, Esteve; Bolwig, Simon; Hunsberger, Carol

    2013-01-01

    Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallholder livelihoods that these models do not consider. Maintaining and enhancing robust livelihoods upon bioenergy deployment is an equally important sustainability goal that warrants greater attention. The social implications of biofuel production are complex, varied and place-specific, difficult to model, operationalize and quantify. However, a rapidly developing body of social science literature is advancing the understanding of these interactions. In this letter we link human geography research on the interaction between biofuel crops and livelihoods in developing countries to integrated assessments on biofuels. We review case-study research focused on first-generation biofuel crops to demonstrate that food, income, land and other assets such as health are key livelihood dimensions that can be impacted by such crops and we highlight how place-specific and global dynamics influence both aggregate and distributional outcomes across these livelihood dimensions. We argue that place-specific production models and land tenure regimes mediate livelihood outcomes, which are also in turn affected by global and regional markets and their resulting equilibrium dynamics. The place-specific perspective suggests that distributional consequences are a crucial complement to aggregate outcomes; this has not been given enough weight in comprehensive assessments to date. By narrowing the gap between place-specific case studies and global models, our discussion offers a route towards integrating livelihood and equity considerations into scenarios of future bioenergy deployment, thus contributing to a key challenge in sustainability sciences. (letter)

  6. Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creutzig, Felix; Corbera, Esteve; Bolwig, Simon; Hunsberger, Carol

    2013-09-01

    Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallholder livelihoods that these models do not consider. Maintaining and enhancing robust livelihoods upon bioenergy deployment is an equally important sustainability goal that warrants greater attention. The social implications of biofuel production are complex, varied and place-specific, difficult to model, operationalize and quantify. However, a rapidly developing body of social science literature is advancing the understanding of these interactions. In this letter we link human geography research on the interaction between biofuel crops and livelihoods in developing countries to integrated assessments on biofuels. We review case-study research focused on first-generation biofuel crops to demonstrate that food, income, land and other assets such as health are key livelihood dimensions that can be impacted by such crops and we highlight how place-specific and global dynamics influence both aggregate and distributional outcomes across these livelihood dimensions. We argue that place-specific production models and land tenure regimes mediate livelihood outcomes, which are also in turn affected by global and regional markets and their resulting equilibrium dynamics. The place-specific perspective suggests that distributional consequences are a crucial complement to aggregate outcomes; this has not been given enough weight in comprehensive assessments to date. By narrowing the gap between place-specific case studies and global models, our discussion offers a route towards integrating livelihood and equity considerations into scenarios of future bioenergy deployment, thus contributing to a key challenge in sustainability sciences.

  7. Why the Indian subcontinent holds the key to global tiger recovery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samrat Mondol

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available With only approximately 3,000 wild individuals surviving restricted to just 7% of their historical range, tigers are now a globally threatened species. Therefore, conservation efforts must prioritize regions that harbor more tigers, as well try to capture most of the remaining genetic variation and habitat diversity. Only such prioritization based on demographic, genetic, and ecological considerations can ensure species recovery and retention of evolutionary flexibility in the face of ongoing global changes. Although scientific understanding of ecological and demographic aspects of extant wild tiger populations has improved recently, little is known about their genetic composition and variability. We sampled 73 individual tigers from 28 reserves spread across a diversity of habitats in the Indian subcontinent to obtain 1,263 bp of mitochondrial DNA and 10 microsatellite loci. Our analyses reveals that Indian tigers retain more than half of the extant genetic diversity in the species. Coalescent simulations attribute this high genetic diversity to a historically large population size of about 58,200 tigers for peninsular India south of the Gangetic plains. Furthermore, our analyses indicate a precipitous, possibly human-induced population crash approximately 200 years ago in India, which is in concordance with historical records. Our results suggest that only 1.7% (with an upper limit of 13% and a lower limit of 0.2% of tiger numbers in historical times remain now. In the global conservation context our results suggest that, based on genetic, demographic, and ecological considerations, the Indian subcontinent holds the key to global survival and recovery of wild tigers.

  8. Numerical Models for the Assessment of Historical Masonry Structures and Materials, Monitored by Acoustic Emission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Invernizzi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews some recent numerical applications for the interpretation and exploitation of acoustic emission (AE monitoring results obtained from historical masonry structures and materials. Among possible numerical techniques, the finite element method and the distinct method are considered. The analyzed numerical models cover the entire scale range, from microstructure and meso-structure, up to full-size real structures. The micro-modeling includes heterogeneous concrete-like materials, but mainly focuses on the masonry texture meso-structure, where each brick and mortar joint is modeled singularly. The full-size models consider the different typology of historical structures such as masonry towers, cathedrals and chapels. The main difficulties and advantages of the different numerical approaches, depending on the problem typology and scale, are critically analyzed. The main insight we can achieve from micro and meso numerical modeling concerns the scaling of AE as a function of volume and time, since it is also able to simulate the b-value temporal evolution as the damage spread into the structure. The finite element modeling of the whole structure provides useful hints for the optimal placement of the AE sensors, while the combination of AE monitoring results is crucial for a reliable assessment of structural safety.

  9. A global historical data set of tropical cyclone exposure (TCE-DAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Tobias; Frieler, Katja; Bresch, David N.

    2018-01-01

    Tropical cyclones pose a major risk to societies worldwide, with about 22 million directly affected people and damages of USD 29 billion on average per year over the last 20 years. While data on observed cyclones tracks (location of the center) and wind speeds are publicly available, these data sets do not contain information about the spatial extent of the storm and people or assets exposed. Here, we apply a simplified wind field model to estimate the areas exposed to wind speeds above 34, 64, and 96 knots (kn). Based on available spatially explicit data on population densities and gross domestic product (GDP) we estimate (1) the number of people and (2) the sum of assets exposed to wind speeds above these thresholds accounting for temporal changes in historical distribution of population and assets (TCE-hist) and assuming fixed 2015 patterns (TCE-2015). The associated spatially explicit and aggregated country-event-level exposure data (TCE-DAT) cover the period 1950 to 2015 and are freely available at https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2017.011 (Geiger at al., 2017c). It is considered key information to (1) assess the contribution of climatological versus socioeconomic drivers of changes in exposure to tropical cyclones, (2) estimate changes in vulnerability from the difference in exposure and reported damages and calibrate associated damage functions, and (3) build improved exposure-based predictors to estimate higher-level societal impacts such as long-term effects on GDP, employment, or migration. We validate the adequateness of our methodology by comparing our exposure estimate to estimated exposure obtained from reported wind fields available since 1988 for the United States. We expect that the free availability of the underlying model and TCE-DAT will make research on tropical cyclone risks more accessible to non-experts and stakeholders.

  10. Eye disease, the fertility decline, and the emergence of global income differences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Thomas B.; Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Selaya, Pablo

    2014-01-01

    This research advances and empirically establishes the hypothesis that regional variation in the historical incidence of eye disease has influenced the current global distribution of per capita income. By reducing work life expectancy, high historical eye disease incidence has served to diminish...... the incentive to accumulate skills, thereby delaying the fertility transition and the take-off to sustained economic growth. As a consequence of a differential timing of the take-off to growth, prompted by differences in the inherent return to skill formation, global income disparities have emerged....

  11. Historical Land-Cover Change and Land-Use Conversions Global Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A set of three estimates of land-cover types and annual transformations of land use are provided on a global 0.5 x0.5 degree lat/lon grid at annual time steps. The...

  12. How a new funding model will shift allocations from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Victoria Y; Glassman, Amanda; Silverman, Rachel L

    2014-12-01

    Policy makers deciding how to fund global health programs in low- and middle-income countries face important but difficult questions about how to allocate resources across countries. In this article we present a typology of three allocation methodologies to align allocations with priorities. We then apply our typology to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria. We examined the Global Fund's historical HIV allocations and its predicted allocations under a new funding model that creates an explicit allocation methodology. We found that under the new funding model, substantial shifts in the Global Fund's portfolio are likely to result from concentrating resources in countries with more HIV cases and lower per capita incomes. For example, South Africa, which had 15.8 percent of global HIV cases in 2009, could see its Global Fund HIV funding more than triple, from historic levels that averaged 3.0 percent to 9.7 percent of total Global Fund allocations. The new funding model methodology is expected, but not guaranteed, to improve the efficiency of Global Fund allocations in comparison to historical practice. We conclude with recommendations for the Global Fund and other global health donors to further develop their allocation methodologies and processes to improve efficiency and transparency. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  13. Global sensitivity analysis in wind energy assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsvetkova, O.; Ouarda, T. B.

    2012-12-01

    Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, it is not yet a common source of energy, although there is enough wind potential to supply world's energy demand. One of the most prominent obstacles on the way of employing wind energy is the uncertainty associated with wind energy assessment. Global sensitivity analysis (SA) studies how the variation of input parameters in an abstract model effects the variation of the variable of interest or the output variable. It also provides ways to calculate explicit measures of importance of input variables (first order and total effect sensitivity indices) in regard to influence on the variation of the output variable. Two methods of determining the above mentioned indices were applied and compared: the brute force method and the best practice estimation procedure In this study a methodology for conducting global SA of wind energy assessment at a planning stage is proposed. Three sampling strategies which are a part of SA procedure were compared: sampling based on Sobol' sequences (SBSS), Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and pseudo-random sampling (PRS). A case study of Masdar City, a showcase of sustainable living in the UAE, is used to exemplify application of the proposed methodology. Sources of uncertainty in wind energy assessment are very diverse. In the case study the following were identified as uncertain input parameters: the Weibull shape parameter, the Weibull scale parameter, availability of a wind turbine, lifetime of a turbine, air density, electrical losses, blade losses, ineffective time losses. Ineffective time losses are defined as losses during the time when the actual wind speed is lower than the cut-in speed or higher than the cut-out speed. The output variable in the case study is the lifetime energy production. Most influential factors for lifetime energy production are identified with the ranking of the total effect sensitivity indices. The results of the present

  14. Assessing enigmatic boulder deposits in NE Aegean Sea: importance of historical sources as tool to support hydrodynamic equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Vacchi

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to their importance in the assessment of coastal hazards, several studies have focused on geomorphological and sedimentological field evidence of catastrophic wave impacts related to historical tsunami events. Among them, many authors used boulder fields as important indicators of past tsunamis, especially in the Mediterranean Sea. The aim of this study was to understand the mechanism of deposition of clusters of large boulders, consisting of beachrock slabs, which were found on the southern coasts of Lesvos Island (NE Aegean Sea. Methods to infer the origin of boulder deposits (tsunami vs. storm wave are often based on hydrodynamic models even if different environmental complexities are difficult to be incorporated into numerical models. In this study, hydrodynamic equations did not provide unequivocal indication of the mechanism responsible for boulder deposition in the study area. Further analyses, ranging from geomorphologic to seismotectonic data, indicated a tsunami as the most likely cause of displacement of the boulders but still do not allow to totally exclude the extreme storm origin. Additional historical investigations (based on tsunami catalogues, historical photos and aged inhabitants interviews indicated that the boulders are likely to have been deposited by the tsunami triggered by the 6.7 Ms Chios-Karaburum earthquake of 1949 or, alternatively, by minor effects of the destructive tsunami produced by 1956's Amorgos Island earthquake. Results of this study point out that, at Mediterranean scale, to flank numerical models with the huge amount of the available historical data become a crucial tool in terms of prevention policies related to catastrophic coastal events.

  15. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  16. Assessment of global expected warming contribution to desertification process development in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolgih, S.A.; Eserkepova, I.B.; Shamen, A.M.

    1997-01-01

    Assessment of moistening condition change in Kazakhstan and its role in processes of desertification at global expected climate warming are cited. Results of numerical experiments by models of common circulation of atmosphere have been used in capacity of potential regional climate change characteristics. (author)

  17. Are herbarium mosses reliable indicators of historical nitrogen deposition?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Tora Finderup; Larsen, Jesper Ruf; Michelsen, Anders; Bruun, Hans Henrik

    2017-12-01

    Mosses collected decades ago and stored in herbaria are often used to assess historical nitrogen deposition. This method is effectively based on the assumption that tissue N concentration remains constant during storage. The present study raises serious doubt about the generality of that assumption. We measured tissue N and C concentrations as well as δ 15 N, δ 13 C, Pb and Mg in herbarium and present day samples of seven bryophyte species from six sites across Denmark. While an increase in nitrogen deposition during the last century is well-documented for the study site, we surprisingly found foliar N concentration to be higher in historical samples than in modern samples. Based on δ 15 N values and Pb concentration, we find nitrogen contamination of herbarium specimens during storage to be the most likely cause, possibly in combination with dilution though growth and/or decomposition during storage. We suggest ways to assess contamination and recommend caution to be taken when using herbarium specimens to assess historical pollution if exposure during storage cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Are Local Food Chains More Sustainable than Global Food Chains? Considerations for Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianluca Brunori

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the main findings of the GLAMUR project which starts with an apparently simple question: is “local” more sustainable than “global”? Sustainability assessment is framed within a post-normal science perspective, advocating the integration of public deliberation and scientific research. The assessment spans 39 local, intermediate and global supply chain case studies across different commodities and countries. Assessment criteria cover environmental, economic, social, health and ethical sustainability dimensions. A closer view of the food system demonstrates a highly dynamic local–global continuum where actors, while adapting to a changing environment, establish multiple relations and animate several chain configurations. The evidence suggests caution when comparing “local” and “global” chains, especially when using the outcomes of the comparison in decision-making. Supply chains are analytical constructs that necessarily—and arbitrarily—are confined by system boundaries, isolating a set of elements from an interconnected whole. Even consolidated approaches, such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA, assess only a part of sustainability attributes, and the interpretation may be controversial. Many sustainability attributes are not yet measurable and “hard” methodologies need to be complemented by “soft” methodologies which are at least able to identify critical issues and trade-offs. Aware of these limitations, our research shows that comparing local and global chains, with the necessary caution, can help overcome a priori positions that so far have characterized the debate between “localists” and “globalists”. At firm level, comparison between “local” and “global” chains could be useful to identify best practices, benchmarks, critical points, and errors to avoid. As sustainability is not a status to achieve, but a never-ending process, comparison and deliberation can be the basis of a

  19. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...

  20. Global health and foreign policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldbaum, Harley; Lee, Kelley; Michaud, Joshua

    2010-01-01

    Health has long been intertwined with the foreign policies of states. In recent years, however, global health issues have risen to the highest levels of international politics and have become accepted as legitimate issues in foreign policy. This elevated political priority is in many ways a welcome development for proponents of global health, and it has resulted in increased funding for and attention to select global health issues. However, there has been less examination of the tensions that characterize the relationship between global health and foreign policy and of the potential effects of linking global health efforts with the foreign-policy interests of states. In this paper, the authors review the relationship between global health and foreign policy by examining the roles of health across 4 major components of foreign policy: aid, trade, diplomacy, and national security. For each of these aspects of foreign policy, the authors review current and historical issues and discuss how foreign-policy interests have aided or impeded global health efforts. The increasing relevance of global health to foreign policy holds both opportunities and dangers for global efforts to improve health.

  1. Global Health and Foreign Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldbaum, Harley; Lee, Kelley; Michaud, Joshua

    2010-01-01

    Health has long been intertwined with the foreign policies of states. In recent years, however, global health issues have risen to the highest levels of international politics and have become accepted as legitimate issues in foreign policy. This elevated political priority is in many ways a welcome development for proponents of global health, and it has resulted in increased funding for and attention to select global health issues. However, there has been less examination of the tensions that characterize the relationship between global health and foreign policy and of the potential effects of linking global health efforts with the foreign-policy interests of states. In this paper, the authors review the relationship between global health and foreign policy by examining the roles of health across 4 major components of foreign policy: aid, trade, diplomacy, and national security. For each of these aspects of foreign policy, the authors review current and historical issues and discuss how foreign-policy interests have aided or impeded global health efforts. The increasing relevance of global health to foreign policy holds both opportunities and dangers for global efforts to improve health. PMID:20423936

  2. Scored patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment: Length of hospital stay and mortality in cancer patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro Ferreira dos SANTOS

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To determine the association of a scored patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment with mortality and length of hospital stay in cancer patients. Methods Cross-sectional study carried out between July and September 2014 using secondary data collection using data from 366 medical records of patients admitted to a hospital recognized as a cancer center of excellence. The present study included patients with hospital stay over than or equal three days and minimum age of 20 years. The patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment scores were calculated and compared with the patients’ clinical and anthropometric characteristics and outcomes (death and long length of stay in hospital. Results Of the 366 patients evaluated, 36.0% were malnourished. The presence of malnutrition, according to the scored patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment, was statistically associated with the presence of metastasis (52.4%. On the other hand, malnutrition, according to the body mass index in adults (55.8% and in older elderly patients (54.2%, was associated with death (55.0%. The adjusted logistic regression model showed that the following factors were associated with prolonged hospitalization: early nutritional screening, presence of severe malnutrition, radiotherapy and chemotherapy, and surgical procedures. As for mortality, the associated factors were: male reproductive system tumor, presence of metastasis, clinical treatment, prolonged hospitalization, and the presence of some degree of malnutrition. Conclusion The patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment score is an important risk marker of prolonged hospitalization and mortality rates. It is a useful tool capable of circumventing significant biases in the nutritional evaluation of cancer patients.

  3. CERN in a historic Global Web-cast

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    On Thursday 1st December, CERN will be involved in 'Beyond Einstein', a 12-hour live world-wide web-cast, which will feature participants from across the globe, marking the World Year of Physics. CERN goes global: the 12-hour web-cast will unite different world timezones by means of the web. Viewers on the web will be able to tune into one of the most extensive videoconference in the world to learn more about Einstein's physics and how it continues to influence cutting-edge research worldwide. The event kicks off at midday (CET) with a live presentation at CERN's Globe of Science and Innovation, featuring a symbolic link-up with the New Library of Alexandria in Egypt. There will then be transmissions from a host of research institutions, such as Imperial College, Fermilab and SLAC. There will also be live connections with Jerusalem, Taipei, San Francisco, Tasmania and even Antarctica. 'Connections will be established among virtually all the time zones on Earth, a perfect way to celebrate Einstein, who rev...

  4. Synthesizing Global and Local Datasets to Estimate Jurisdictional Forest Carbon Fluxes in Berau, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griscom, Bronson W; Ellis, Peter W; Baccini, Alessandro; Marthinus, Delon; Evans, Jeffrey S; Ruslandi

    2016-01-01

    Forest conservation efforts are increasingly being implemented at the scale of sub-national jurisdictions in order to mitigate global climate change and provide other ecosystem services. We see an urgent need for robust estimates of historic forest carbon emissions at this scale, as the basis for credible measures of climate and other benefits achieved. Despite the arrival of a new generation of global datasets on forest area change and biomass, confusion remains about how to produce credible jurisdictional estimates of forest emissions. We demonstrate a method for estimating the relevant historic forest carbon fluxes within the Regency of Berau in eastern Borneo, Indonesia. Our method integrates best available global and local datasets, and includes a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty at the regency scale. We find that Berau generated 8.91 ± 1.99 million tonnes of net CO2 emissions per year during 2000-2010. Berau is an early frontier landscape where gross emissions are 12 times higher than gross sequestration. Yet most (85%) of Berau's original forests are still standing. The majority of net emissions were due to conversion of native forests to unspecified agriculture (43% of total), oil palm (28%), and fiber plantations (9%). Most of the remainder was due to legal commercial selective logging (17%). Our overall uncertainty estimate offers an independent basis for assessing three other estimates for Berau. Two other estimates were above the upper end of our uncertainty range. We emphasize the importance of including an uncertainty range for all parameters of the emissions equation to generate a comprehensive uncertainty estimate-which has not been done before. We believe comprehensive estimates of carbon flux uncertainty are increasingly important as national and international institutions are challenged with comparing alternative estimates and identifying a credible range of historic emissions values.

  5. Democracy is a historical urgency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synek, Miroslav

    2015-03-01

    Survival of humanity, on this planet, may depend, heavily, on coping with advancing technology of nuclear missiles. Let us consider critical alternatives of powerful governments: democracy, as an alternative to dictatorship. Democracy is based on free elections, as a government of the people, by the people and for the people. Democracy is a historical urgency, in the age of inter-continental nuclear missiles, computerized on a push-button, conceivably controllable by a very powerful, miscalculating and/or insane, dictator, capable of producing global nuclear holocaust, on our entire planet. Diplomacy, together with supporting activities, should be utilized, to help, in important steps, at this time, for achieving democracy in critical areas.

  6. Petascale Diagnostic Assessment of the Global Portfolio Rainfall Space Missions' Ability to Support Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, P. M.; Chaney, N.; Herman, J. D.; Wood, E. F.; Ferringer, M. P.

    2015-12-01

    This research represents a multi-institutional collaboration between Cornell University, The Aerospace Corporation, and Princeton University that has completed a Petascale diagnostic assessment of the current 10 satellite missions providing rainfall observations. Our diagnostic assessment has required four core tasks: (1) formally linking high-resolution astrodynamics design and coordination of space assets with their global hydrological impacts within a Petascale "many-objective" global optimization framework, (2) developing a baseline diagnostic evaluation of a 1-degree resolution global implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to establish the required satellite observation frequencies and coverage to maintain acceptable global flood forecasts, (3) evaluating the limitations and vulnerabilities of the full suite of current satellite precipitation missions including the recently approved Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, and (4) conceptualizing the next generation spaced-based platforms for water cycle observation. Our team exploited over 100 Million hours of computing access on the 700,000+ core Blue Waters machine to radically advance our ability to discover and visualize key system tradeoffs and sensitivities. This project represents to our knowledge the first attempt to develop a 10,000 member Monte Carlo global hydrologic simulation at one degree resolution that characterizes the uncertain effects of changing the available frequencies of satellite precipitation on drought and flood forecasts. The simulation—optimization components of the work have set a theoretical baseline for the best possible frequencies and coverages for global precipitation given unlimited investment, broad international coordination in reconfiguring existing assets, and new satellite constellation design objectives informed directly by key global hydrologic forecasting requirements. Our research poses a step towards realizing the integrated

  7. EUROPEAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRY COMPETITIVENESS: HISTORICAL TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmytro Gladkykh

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyze historical trends and development prospects of the European chemical industry competitiveness. It is concluded that the chemical industry is one of the EU’s most successful spheres, boasting €527 billion in sales in 2013, making it the second-largest global manufacture. Methodology. To explain the competitiveness of the EU chemical branch in the global market, it is proposed the constant-market share methodology to chemical exports coupled with econometric analysis. Results. The constant market share (CMS approach to assessing competitiveness, developed in the 1970 s for analysis of trade, is based on the principle that changes in the geographic and product structures of exports will affect a country’s export growth relative to that of the world, and that is way its global export market share. There were analyzed the EU biggest exporters (Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, the USA, Japan; China, India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil. Practical implication. The analysis presents the results of competitiveness assessment in a different way, showing the average annual growth rate of EU and world chemical exports in the top section and then decomposing the gap between the two into that thanks to growth dynamics (structure effect and competitive effect. It is defined a lot of factors that are important to industrial competitiveness. On the cost side, in many industries labor is a large enough share of overall production costs that international differences in salaries can have a large bearing on competitiveness. Costs are also affected by a variety of government policies. It is also defined that innovation is one of the most important factors, which opens up new opportunities both in terms of new products and more efficient processes for manufacturing existing products. Value/originality. Given analysis helps to understand the causes and factors that have an impact on the European

  8. Systems Approaches: A Global and Historical Perspective on Integrative Medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    The globalization of healing systems is a dance of cultural awareness and cultural dominance that has arisen throughout history. With the development of greater communication and interest in whole-systems approaches to healing, the opportunity for the development of a global perspective on healing has emerged with new life force. The birth of integrative holistic healing systems in the West, such as naturopathic, homeopathic, anthroposophic, integral and functional medicine, and others, echoes the ocean of wisdom present in traditional healing systems, such as traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and Ayurveda. In working to integrate the lessons from these systems, we see the inextricable link between man and the natural world, we work to understand the root cause of disease, we focus on the whole person to return balance, and we use empiric observation in large populations over time to grasp the interrelationships inherent in the whole-systems view of illness and wellness. PMID:24278794

  9. Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

  10. Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimont, Zbigniew; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Heyes, Chris; Purohit, Pallav; Cofala, Janusz; Rafaj, Peter; Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990-2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5° × 0.5° longitude-latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion

  11. Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Klimont

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990–2010 global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10, as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC and organic carbon (OC. The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping, presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5°  ×  0.5° longitude–latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global

  12. Assessing the environmental impacts of freshwater thermal pollution from global power generation in LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raptis, Catherine E; Boucher, Justin M; Pfister, Stephan

    2017-02-15

    Freshwater heat emissions from power plants with once-through cooling systems constitute one of many environmental pressures related to the thermoelectric power industry. The objective of this work was to obtain high resolution, operational characterization factors (CF) for the impact of heat emissions on ecosystem quality, and carry out a comprehensive, spatially, temporally and technologically differentiated damage-based environmental assessment of global freshwater thermal pollution. The aggregation of CFs on a watershed level results in 12.5% lower annual impacts globally and even smaller differences for the most crucial watersheds and months, so watershed level CFs are recommended when the exact emission site within the basin is unknown. Long-range impacts account for almost 90% of the total global impacts. The Great Lakes, several Mississippi subbasins, the Danube, and the Yangtze are among the most thermally impacted watersheds globally, receiving heat emissions from predominantly coal-fuelled and nuclear power plants. Globally, over 80% of the global annual impacts come from power plants constructed during or before the 1980s. While the impact-weighted mean age of the power plants in the Mississippi ranges from 38 to 51years, in Chinese watersheds including the Yangtze, the equivalent range is only 15 to 22years, reflecting a stark contrast in thermal pollution mitigation approaches. With relatively high shares of total capacity from power plants with once-through freshwater cooling, and tracing a large part of the Danube, 1kWh of net electricity mix is the most impactful in Hungary, Bulgaria and Serbia. Monthly CFs are provided on a grid cell level and on a watershed level for use in Life Cycle Assessment. The impacts per generating unit are also provided, as part of our effort to make available a global dataset of thermoelectric power plant emissions and impacts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. The evolution of enterprises in the global network competition

    OpenAIRE

    Borghoff,Thomas; Welge,Martin K.

    2001-01-01

    The globalization of a company is embedded in the globalization of its task environment. This process can be described as a co-evolutionary process of a social system in its environment. A historical view of the globalization of competition seems to prove that it can be interpreted as an evolutionary process of differentiation and integration that is reinforced by the decreasing rigidity of boundaries. A liquefaction of competition" can be observed, in which an increasing number of autonomous...

  14. Spatial assessment of land degradation through key ecosystem services: The role of globally available data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerretelli, Stefania; Poggio, Laura; Gimona, Alessandro; Yakob, Getahun; Boke, Shiferaw; Habte, Mulugeta; Coull, Malcolm; Peressotti, Alessandro; Black, Helaina

    2018-07-01

    Land degradation is a serious issue especially in dry and developing countries leading to ecosystem services (ESS) degradation due to soil functions' depletion. Reliably mapping land degradation spatial distribution is therefore important for policy decisions. The main objectives of this paper were to infer land degradation through ESS assessment and compare the modelling results obtained using different sets of data. We modelled important physical processes (sediment erosion and nutrient export) and the equivalent ecosystem services (sediment and nutrient retention) to infer land degradation in an area in the Ethiopian Great Rift Valley. To model soil erosion/retention capability, and nitrogen export/retention capability, two datasets were used: a 'global' dataset derived from existing global-coverage data and a hybrid dataset where global data were integrated with data from local surveys. The results showed that ESS assessments can be used to infer land degradation and identify priority areas for interventions. The comparison between the modelling results of the two different input datasets showed that caution is necessary if only global-coverage data are used at a local scale. In remote and data-poor areas, an approach that integrates global data with targeted local sampling campaigns might be a good compromise to use ecosystem services in decision-making. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. Biomass Assessment. Assessment of global biomass potentials and their links to food, water, biodiversity, energy demand and economy. Inventory and analysis of existing studies. Supporting document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dornburg, V.; Faaij, A.; Verweij, P.; Banse, M.; Van Diepen, K.; Van Keulen, H.; Langeveld, H.; Meeusen, M.; Van de Ven, G.; Wester, F.; Alkemade, R.; Ten Brink, B.; Van den Born, G.J.; Van Oorschot, M.; Ros, J.; Smout, F.; Van Vuuren, D.; Van den Wijngaart, R.; Aiking, H.; Londo, M.; Mozaffarian, H.; Smekens, K.; Lysen, E.

    2008-01-01

    This supporting document contains the result from the inventory phase of the biomass assessment of global biomass potentials and their links to food, water, biodiversity, energy demand and economy. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of global biomass potential estimates, focusing on the various factors affecting these potentials, such as food supplies, water use, biodiversity, energy demands and agro-economics

  16. Assessing the Effects of Corporate Social Responsibility Standards in Global Value Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund-Thomsen, Peter

    This paper considers the issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR) standard impact assessment in global value chains. CSR standards have proliferated in recent years, and several studies have attempted to assess their effects on local producers, workers, and the environment in developing...... countries. However, much less attention has been paid to the “dark side” of impact assessment – the ethical and political dilemmas that arise in the process of carrying out impact studies. This paper addresses this gap in literature, arguing that impact assessments of CSR standards may do more harm than...... good to the intended beneficiaries - developing country firms, farmers, workers, and communities - unless these ethical and political dilemmas are given serious consideration....

  17. Global assessment of seasonal potential distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szyniszewska, Anna M.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    The Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) is one of the world's most economically damaging pests. It displays highly seasonal population dynamics, and the environmental conditions suitable for its abundance are not constant throughout the year in most places. An extensive literature search was performed to obtain the most comprehensive data on the historical and contemporary spatio-temporal occurrence of the pest globally. The database constructed contained 2328 unique geo-located entries on Medfly detection sites from 43 countries and nearly 500 unique localities, as well as information on hosts, life stages and capture method. Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online. Records from 1980 until present were used for medfly environmental niche modeling. Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt) and a set of seasonally varying environmental covariates were used to predict the fundamental niche of the Medfly on a global scale. Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May- August and September-December. Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species. (author)

  18. [Historical pain concepts : Cultural influences on pain perception and interpretation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, D

    2017-02-01

    In the age of globalization and cultural diversification differing concepts of pain in patient care are of increasing importance. Historical models of the origin and interpretation of pain, which in this article are presented in a cursory and exemplary way, help to understand the panoply of modern concepts outside of medicine. Basically, pain was viewed not only in religion and philosophy but also by premodern physicians as a psychophysical phenomenon crucially depending on the determination by a "soul" therefore creating therapeutic options even before the discovery of an effective analgesia. Furthermore, the historical interpretations of pain in and outside of medicine can still be of profound importance to patients even today.

  19. Marriage, Family and Gender Inequality : An historical exploration of the relationship between family systems, the position of women and development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmichael, S.G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/35751405X

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation explores the historical underpinnings of current day gender inequalities at a global scale, with a focus on female agency (the degree of control people have over their own lives). To do so it brings together different explorations of the position of women both historically and

  20. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  1. Dutch Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA): training improves scores for comprehensibility and difficulty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danique Haven; Martine J. Sealy; Jan Roodenburg; Dr. C.P. van der Schans; Dr. Harriët Jager-Wittenaar; Anne van der Braak; Faith Ottery

    2015-01-01

    The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) is a validated instrument to assess and monitor malnutrition. The PG-SGA consists of both patient-reported and professional-reported items. A professional should be able to correctly interpret all items. Untrained professionals may

  2. Porphyry copper assessment of northeast Asia: Far East Russia and northeasternmost China: Chapter W in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihalasky, Mark J.; Ludington, Stephen; Alexeiev, Dmitriy V.; Frost, Thomas P.; Light, Thomas D.; Briggs, Deborah A.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Wallis, John C.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Panteleyev, Andre

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey assesses resources (mineral, energy, water, environmental, and biologic) at regional, national, and global scales to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources in undiscovered deposits.

  3. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  4. PHYSICAL AND MECHANICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF BUILDING MATERIALS OF HISTORIC BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Witzany

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents partial results of laboratory research into physical and mechanical characteristics of materials most commonly used as walling units in masonry structures of historic and heritage buildings. Core boreholes and specimens for the laboratory research of selected characteristics were sampled from accessible places of historic buildings, which had not been restored or reconstructed. The results of the research brought new knowledge about the unreliability (variance of the properties of historical, mainly natural building materials, and, at the same time, pointed out the need for further research and extension of knowledge necessary for the assessment of residual physical and mechanical characteristics of historic masonry structures.

  5. Sustainable potato production: global case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is grown in over 100 countries throughout the world. As a staple food, potato is the fourth most important crop after rice, wheat, and maize, and has historically contributed to food and nutrition security in the world. Global interest in potato increased sharply in 200...

  6. Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

    2009-01-01

    This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

  7. Global Simulation of Aviation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Banavar; Sheth, Kapil; Ng, Hok Kwan; Morando, Alex; Li, Jinhua

    2016-01-01

    The simulation and analysis of global air traffic is limited due to a lack of simulation tools and the difficulty in accessing data sources. This paper provides a global simulation of aviation operations combining flight plans and real air traffic data with historical commercial city-pair aircraft type and schedule data and global atmospheric data. The resulting capability extends the simulation and optimization functions of NASA's Future Air Traffic Management Concept Evaluation Tool (FACET) to global scale. This new capability is used to present results on the evolution of global air traffic patterns from a concentration of traffic inside US, Europe and across the Atlantic Ocean to a more diverse traffic pattern across the globe with accelerated growth in Asia, Australia, Africa and South America. The simulation analyzes seasonal variation in the long-haul wind-optimal traffic patterns in six major regions of the world and provides potential time-savings of wind-optimal routes compared with either great circle routes or current flight-plans if available.

  8. The potential of historical hydrology in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Wetter

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Historical hydrology is based on data derived from historical written, pictorial and epigraphic documentary sources. It lies at the interface between hydrology and environmental history, using methodologies from both disciplines basically with the goal of significantly extending the instrumental measurement period with experience from the pre-instrumental past. Recently this field of research has gained increased recognition as a tool to improve current flood risk estimations when EU guidelines regulated by law the quantitative consideration of previous floods.1 Awareness to consider pre-instrumental experience in flood risk analysis seems to have risen at the level of local and federal authorities in Switzerland as well. The 2011 Fukushima catastrophe probably fostered this rethinking process, when pressure from the media, society and politics as well as the regulations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA forced the authorities to reassess the current flood risk analysis for Swiss nuclear power plants. In 2015 a historical hydrological study was commissioned by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN to assess the magnitudes of pre-instrumental Aare River flood discharges, including the most important tributaries (the Saane, Emme, Reuss and Limmat rivers. The results of the historical hydrological study serve now as the basis for the main study, EXAR (commissioned under the lead of FOEN in cooperation with the Swiss Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI, the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE, the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP, and the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss, which combines historical and climatological analysis with statistical approaches and mathematical models with the goal of better understanding the hazards and possible interactions that can be caused by extreme flood events. In a second phase the catchment of the River Rhine will be targeted as well. More recently several local

  9. The potential of historical hydrology in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetter, Oliver

    2017-11-01

    Historical hydrology is based on data derived from historical written, pictorial and epigraphic documentary sources. It lies at the interface between hydrology and environmental history, using methodologies from both disciplines basically with the goal of significantly extending the instrumental measurement period with experience from the pre-instrumental past. Recently this field of research has gained increased recognition as a tool to improve current flood risk estimations when EU guidelines regulated by law the quantitative consideration of previous floods.1 Awareness to consider pre-instrumental experience in flood risk analysis seems to have risen at the level of local and federal authorities in Switzerland as well. The 2011 Fukushima catastrophe probably fostered this rethinking process, when pressure from the media, society and politics as well as the regulations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) forced the authorities to reassess the current flood risk analysis for Swiss nuclear power plants. In 2015 a historical hydrological study was commissioned by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) to assess the magnitudes of pre-instrumental Aare River flood discharges, including the most important tributaries (the Saane, Emme, Reuss and Limmat rivers). The results of the historical hydrological study serve now as the basis for the main study, EXAR (commissioned under the lead of FOEN in cooperation with the Swiss Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI), the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP), and the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss)), which combines historical and climatological analysis with statistical approaches and mathematical models with the goal of better understanding the hazards and possible interactions that can be caused by extreme flood events. In a second phase the catchment of the River Rhine will be targeted as well. More recently several local historical

  10. Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 deg. C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Hare, William; Chen, Claudine; Meinshausen, Malte

    2011-01-01

    Aggregations of greenhouse gas mitigation pledges by countries are frequently used to indicate whether resulting global emissions in 2020 will be 'on track' to limit global temperature increase to below specific warming levels such as 1.5 or 2 deg. C. We find that historical emission levels aggregated from data that are officially reported by countries to the UNFCCC are lower than independent global emission estimates, such as the IPCC SRES scenarios. This discrepancy in historical emissions could substantially widen the gap between 2020 pledges and 2020 benchmarks, as the latter tend to be derived from scenarios that share similar historical emission levels to IPCC SRES scenarios. Three methods for resolving this discrepancy, here called 'harmonization', are presented and their influence on 'gap' estimates is discussed. Instead of a 3.4-9.2 GtCO 2 eq shortfall in emission reductions by 2020 compared with the 44 GtCO 2 eq benchmark, the actual gap might be as high as 5.4-12.5 GtCO 2 eq (a 22-88% increase of the gap) if this historical discrepancy is accounted for. Not applying this harmonization step when using 2020 emission benchmarks could lead to an underestimation of the insufficiency of current mitigation pledges.

  11. Links that speak: the global language network and its association with global fame.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronen, Shahar; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Kevin Z; Vespignani, Alessandro; Pinker, Steven; Hidalgo, César A

    2014-12-30

    Languages vary enormously in global importance because of historical, demographic, political, and technological forces. However, beyond simple measures of population and economic power, there has been no rigorous quantitative way to define the global influence of languages. Here we use the structure of the networks connecting multilingual speakers and translated texts, as expressed in book translations, multiple language editions of Wikipedia, and Twitter, to provide a concept of language importance that goes beyond simple economic or demographic measures. We find that the structure of these three global language networks (GLNs) is centered on English as a global hub and around a handful of intermediate hub languages, which include Spanish, German, French, Russian, Portuguese, and Chinese. We validate the measure of a language's centrality in the three GLNs by showing that it exhibits a strong correlation with two independent measures of the number of famous people born in the countries associated with that language. These results suggest that the position of a language in the GLN contributes to the visibility of its speakers and the global popularity of the cultural content they produce.

  12. Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creutzig, Felix; Corbera, Esteve; Bolwig, Simon

    2013-01-01

    -study research focused on first-generation biofuel crops to demonstrate that food, income, land and other assets such as health are key livelihood dimensions that can be impacted by such crops and we highlight how place-specific and global dynamics influence both aggregate and distributional outcomes across......Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallholder livelihoods...... these livelihood dimensions. We argue that place-specific production models and land tenure regimes mediate livelihood outcomes, which are also in turn affected by global and regional markets and their resulting equilibrium dynamics. The place-specific perspective suggests that distributional consequences...

  13. The historic surface ozone record, 1896-1975, and its relation to modern measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbally, I. E.; Tarasick, D. W.; Stähelin, J.; Wallington, T. J.; Steinbacher, M.; Schultz, M.; Cooper, O. R.

    2017-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone is a greenhouse gas, a key component of atmospheric chemistry, and is detrimental to human health and plant productivity. The historic surface ozone record 1896-1975 has been constructed from measurements selected for (a) instrumentation whose ozone response can be traced to modern tropospheric ozone measurement standards, (b) samples taken when there is low probability of chemical interference and (c) sampling locations, heights and times when atmospheric mixing will minimise vertical gradients of ozone in the planetary boundary layer above and around the measurement location. Early measurements with the Schönbein filter paper technique cannot be related to modern methods with any degree of confidence. The potassium iodide-arsenite technique used at Montsouris for 1876-1910 is valid for measuring ozone; however, due to the presence of the interfering gases sulfur dioxide, ammonia and nitrogen oxides, the measured ozone concentrations are not representative of the regional atmosphere. The use of these data sets for trend analyses is not recommended. In total, 58 acceptable sets of measurements are currently identified, commencing in Europe in 1896, Greenland in 1932 and globally by the late 1950's. Between 1896 and 1944 there were 21 studies (median duration 5 days) with a median mole fraction of 23 nmol mol-1 (range of study averages 15-62 nmol mol-1). Between 1950 and 1975 there were 37 studies (median duration approx. 21 months) with a median mole fraction of 22 nmol mol-1 (range of study averages 13-49 nmol mol-1), all measured under conditions likely to give ozone mole fractions similar to those in the planetary boundary layer. These time series are matched with modern measurements from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) Ozone Database and used to examine changes between the historic and modern observations. These historic ozone levels are higher than previously accepted for surface ozone in the late 19th early 20th Century

  14. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM (GPS) ADJACENT BAND COMPATIBILITY ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-01

    The goal of the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Global Positioning System (GPS) Adjacent Band Compatibility Assessment is to evaluate the maximum transmitted power levels of adjacent band radiofrequency (RF) systems that can be tolerated by G...

  15. Tailoring Global Data to Guide Corporate Investments in Biodiversity, Environmental Assessments and Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Kiesecker

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Companies make significant investments in environmental impacts assessments, biodiversity action plans, life-cycle assessments, and environmental management systems, but guidance on where and when these tools can be best used, and how they may scale-up to inform corporation-wide planning, is sorely lacking. A major barrier to informed environmental decision-making within companies, especially in data poor regions of the world, is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting biodiversity information. To address this shortcoming, we analyzed nine publicly available environmental datasets, and created five globally-relevant metrics associated with biodiversity: habitat intactness, habitat protection, species richness (globally and biome normalized, and threatened species. We demonstrate how packaging these metrics within an open-source, web-based mapping tool can facilitate corporations in biodiversity prioritization of their sites (or their supply chains, ultimately guiding potential investments in the environment.

  16. Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles in terms of Theories of Cultural Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Najjarzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Introduction   Globalization has indubitably caused local, national, and international sections to meet and intertwine in ways that have historically been unimaginable. The discourse of globalization has become widespread around the world with ongoing discussions surrounding its economic, cultural, technological, and political aspects and implications (Roberts, 2008). As such, globalization has been viewed through the assortment lenses of finance and trade; communications and information tech...

  17. AgMIP 1.5°C Assessment: Mitigation and Adaptation at Coordinated Global and Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2016-12-01

    The AgMIP 1.5°C Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (AgMIP 1.5 CGRA) is linking site-based crop and livestock models with similar models run on global grids, and then links these biophysical components with economics models and nutrition metrics at regional and global scales. The AgMIP 1.5 CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, nutrition, and food security to define the 1.5°C Protocols and guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including socioeconomic development (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), greenhouse gas concentrations (Representative Concentration Pathways), and specific pathways of agricultural sector development (Representative Agricultural Pathways). Shared Climate Policy Assumptions will be extended to provide additional agricultural detail on mitigation and adaptation strategies. The multi-model, multi-disciplinary, multi-scale integrated assessment framework is using scenarios of economic development, adaptation, mitigation, food policy, and food security. These coordinated assessments are grounded in the expertise of AgMIP partners around the world, leading to more consistent results and messages for stakeholders, policymakers, and the scientific community. The early inclusion of nutrition and food security experts has helped to ensure that assessment outputs include important metrics upon which investment and policy decisions may be based. The CGRA builds upon existing AgMIP research groups (e.g., the AgMIP Wheat Team and the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Modeling Initiative; GGCMI) and regional programs (e.g., AgMIP Regional Teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia), with new protocols for cross-scale and cross-disciplinary linkages to ensure the propagation of expert judgment and consistent assumptions.

  18. Toward a 30m resolution time series of historical global urban expansion: exploring variation in North American cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuhlmacher, M.; Wang, C.; Georgescu, M.; Tellman, B.; Balling, R.; Clinton, N. E.; Collins, L.; Goldblatt, R.; Hanson, G.

    2016-12-01

    Global representations of modern day urban land use and land cover (LULC) extent are becoming increasingly prevalent. Yet considerable uncertainties in the representation of built environment extent (i.e. global classifications generated from 250m resolution MODIS imagery or the United States' National Land Cover Database) remain because of the lack of a systematic, globally consistent methodological approach. We aim to increase resolution, accuracy, and improve upon past efforts by establishing a data-driven definition of the urban landscape, based on Landsat 5, 7 & 8 imagery and ancillary data sets. Continuous and discrete machine learning classification algorithms have been developed in Google Earth Engine (GEE), a powerful online cloud-based geospatial storage and parallel-computing platform. Additionally, thousands of ground truth points have been selected from high resolution imagery to fill in the previous lack of accurate data to be used for training and validation. We will present preliminary classification and accuracy assessments for select cities in the United States and Mexico. Our approach has direct implications for development of projected urban growth that is grounded on realistic identification of urbanizing hot-spots, with consequences for local to regional scale climate change, energy demand, water stress, human health, urban-ecological interactions, and efforts used to prioritize adaptation and mitigation strategies to offset large-scale climate change. Future work to apply the built-up detection algorithm globally and yearly is underway in a partnership between GEE, University of California in San Diego, and Arizona State University.

  19. U.S. Geological Survey assessment of global potash production and resources—A significant advancement for global development and a sustainable future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cocker, Mark D.; Orris, Greta J.; Wynn, Jeff

    2016-01-01

    During the past 15 yr, the global requirement for fertilizers has grown considerably, mainly due to demand by a larger and wealthier world population for more and higher-quality food. The demand and price for potash as a primary fertilizer ingredient have increased in tandem, because of the necessity to increase the quantity and quality of food production on the decreasing amount of available arable land. The primary sources of potash are evaporates, which occur mainly in marine salt basins and a few brine-bearing continental basins. World potash resources are large, but distribution is inequitable and not presently developed in countries where population and food requirements are large and increasing. There is no known substitute for potash in fertilizer, so knowledge of the world’s potash resources is critical for a sustainable future. The U.S. Geological Survey recently completed a global assessment of evaporite-hosted potash resources, which included a geographic information system–based inventory of known potash resources. This assessment included permissive areas or tracts for undiscovered resources at a scale of 1:1,000,000. Assessments of undiscovered potash resources were conducted for a number of the world’s evaporite-hosted potash basins. The data collected provide a major advance in our knowledge of global potash resources that did not exist prior to this study. The two databases include: (1) potash deposits and occurrences, and (2) potash tracts (basins that contain these deposits and occurrences and potentially undiscovered potash deposits). Data available include geology, mineralogy, grade, tonnage, depth, thickness, areal extent, and structure, as well as numerous pertinent references.

  20. Global generations: social change in the twentieth century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmunds, June; Turner, Bryan S

    2005-12-01

    The concept of generation within sociology has until recently been a marginal area of interest. However, various demographic, cultural and intellectual developments have re-awakened an interest in generations that started with the classic essay by Karl Mannheim. To date, the sociological literature has generally conceptualized generations as nationally bounded entities. In this paper we suggest that the sociology of generations should develop the concept of global generations. This conceptual enhancement is important because the growth of global communications technology has enabled traumatic events, in an unparalleled way, to be experienced globally. The late nineteenth and early twentieth century was the era of international generations, united through print media, and the mid-twentieth century saw the emergence of transnational generations, facilitated by new broadcast communications. However, the latter part of the twentieth century is the period of global generations, defined by electronic communications technology, which is characterized, uniquely, by increasing interactivity. The 1960s generation was the first global generation, the emergence of which had world-wide consequences; today with major developments in new electronic communications, there is even more potential for the emergence of global generations that can communicate across national boundaries and through time. If in the past historical traumas combined with available opportunities to create national generations, now globally experienced traumas, facilitated by new media technologies, have the potential for creating global generational consciousness. The media have become increasingly implicated in the formation of generational movements. Because we are talking about generations in the making rather than an historical generation, this article is necessarily speculative; it aims to provoke discussion and establish a new research agenda for work on generations.

  1. Exploring the Historical Dimensions of "Bildung" and Its Metamorphosis in the Context of Globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidt, Irene

    2015-01-01

    In this article, I endeavor to explore the historical dimensions of "Bildung" by first focusing on the German linguist and philosopher Wilhelm von Humboldt and his theory of "Bildung." The article then addresses the transformation of Humboldt's neo-humanistic ideal into a governmentrun institutionalized "Bildung"…

  2. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

  3. A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land

  4. Global guidance on environmental life cycle impact assessment indicators: Progress and case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frischknecht, Rolf; Fantke, Peter; Tschümperlin, Laura

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) guidance flagship project of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Life Cycle Initiative aims at providing global guidance and building scientific consensus on environmental LCIA in...

  5. Globalization and Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huma Imran Khan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The concept of globalization has been introduced due to technical advancements that has made the world a global village. The world as is now has never been before; it is now a world where multicultural societies have developed, trade and transactions are made between countries, technology reaches every part of the world, and internet has connected every possible idea, opinion, person, and commodity with the rest of the world. In this world of globalization, education has taken a central role, as without education globalization cannot be germinated. Education is a national issue and as such, each country has its own educational policies that are emblems of that country's cultural values, belief system and historical realities. Nevertheless, the globalized world demands for multiculturalism, and commonalities amongst communities to be promoted so as to bring the world closer to accepting cultural diversities and celebrating commonalities. For these aims, educational institutions become institutions for promoting globalization by introducing various cultural and traditional beliefs to the new generation. Recently, globalization has become a popular subject of debate in national and international circiles. Globalization links individuals and institutions across the world through economic forces, digital technologies, and communication. It is moreover subjected to higher living standards, international affiliations, and multiple types of freedom. However, a major part of the world consists of under developed countries where technological advancements, communication, trade and commerce along with other economic activities are not enough to support them to be a part of the global society.

  6. Changing values of Farm Animal Genomic Resources. From historical breeds to the Nagoya Protocol.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakari eTamminen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the history of AnGRs and claims that over the course of history they have been conceptually transformed from economic, ecologic and scientific life forms into political objects, reflecting in the way in which any valuation of AnGRs is today inherently imbued with national politics and its values enacted by legally binding global conventions. Historically, the first calls to conservation were based on the economic, ecological and scientific values of the AnGR. While the historical arguments are valid and still commonly proposed values for conservation, the AnGR have become highly politicized since the adoption of the Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD, the subsequent Interlaken Declaration, the Global Plan for Action (GPA and the Nagoya Protocol. The scientific and political definitions of the AnGRs were creatively reshuffled within these documents and the key criteria by which they are now identified and valued today were essentially redefined. The criteria of in-situ condition has become the necessary starting point for all valuation efforts of AnGRs, effectively transforming their previous nature as natural property and global genetic club commons into objects of national concern pertaining to territorially discrete national genetic landscapes, regulated by the sovereign powers of the parties to the global conventions.

  7. Changing values of farm animal genomic resources. from historical breeds to the Nagoya Protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamminen, Sakari

    2015-01-01

    The paper reviews the history of Animal genetic resources (AnGRs) and claims that over the course of history they have been conceptually transformed from economic, ecologic and scientific life forms into political objects, reflecting in the way in which any valuation of AnGRs is today inherently imbued with national politics and its values enacted by legally binding global conventions. Historically, the first calls to conservation were based on the economic, ecological and scientific values of the AnGR. While the historical arguments are valid and still commonly proposed values for conservation, the AnGR have become highly politicized since the adoption of the Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD), the subsequent Interlaken Declaration, the Global Plan for Action (GPA) and the Nagoya Protocol. The scientific and political definitions of the AnGRs were creatively reshuffled within these documents and the key criteria by which they are now identified and valued today were essentially redefined. The criteria of "in situ condition" has become the necessary starting point for all valuation efforts of AnGRs, effectively transforming their previous nature as natural property and global genetic commons into objects of national concern pertaining to territorially discrete national genetic landscapes, regulated by the sovereign powers of the parties to the global conventions.

  8. Assessments in the Global Peace Operations Initiative: A Systems Engineering Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    police unit GCC GPOI Coordination Committee GIG GPOI Implementation Guide GPOI Global Peace Operations Initiative GRC GPOI Regional Committee G8...degree necessary to build a coherent assessments framework. The GPOI Implementation Guide ( GIG ) begins by alluding to what the program intended to...elements and associated interactions fully observed and understood. Using the U.S. economy as an example, Driscoll (2011) illustrates the common

  9. Multi-model global assessment of subseasonal prediction skill of atmospheric rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deflorio, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are global phenomena that are characterized by long, narrow plumes of water vapor transport. They are most often observed in the midlatitudes near climatologically active storm track regions. Because of their frequent association with floods, landslides, and other hydrological impacts on society, there is significant incentive at the intersection of academic research, water management, and policymaking to understand the skill with which state-of-the-art operational weather models can predict ARs weeks-to-months in advance. We use the newly assembled Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database, which includes extensive hindcast records of eleven operational weather models, to assess global prediction skill of atmospheric rivers on S2S timescales. We develop a metric to assess AR skill that is suitable for S2S timescales by counting the total number of AR days which occur over each model and observational grid cell during a 2-week time window. This "2-week AR occurrence" metric is suitable for S2S prediction skill assessment because it does not consider discrete hourly or daily AR objects, but rather a smoothed representation of AR occurrence over a longer period of time. Our results indicate that several of the S2S models, especially the ECMWF model, show useful prediction skill in the 2-week forecast window, with significant interannual variation in some regions. We also present results from an experimental forecast of S2S AR prediction skill using the ECMWF and NCEP models.

  10. China’s Land-Use Changes during the Past 300 Years: A Historical Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Lijuan; Zhu, Feng; Sun, Zhanli; Moore, John C.; Cui, Xuefeng

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the processes of historical land-use change is crucial to the research of global environmental sustainability. Here we examine and attempt to disentangle the evolutionary interactions between land-use change and its underlying causes through a historical lens. We compiled and synthesized historical land-use change and various biophysical, political, socioeconomic, and technical datasets, from the Qing dynasty to modern China. The analysis reveals a clear transition period between the 1950s and the 1980s. Before the 1950s, cropland expanded while forested land diminished, which was also accompanied by increasing population; after the 1980s land-use change exhibited new characteristics: changes in cropland, and decoupling of forest from population as a result of agricultural intensification and globalization. Chinese political policies also played an important and complex role, especially during the 1950s–1980s transition periods. Overall, climate change plays an indirect but fundamental role in the dynamics of land use via a series of various cascading effects such as shrinking agricultural production proceeding to population collapse and outbreaks of war. The expected continuation of agricultural intensification this century should be able to support increasing domestic demand for richer diets, but may not be compatible with long-term environmental sustainability. PMID:27571087

  11. China’s Land-Use Changes during the Past 300 Years: A Historical Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijuan Miao

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the processes of historical land-use change is crucial to the research of global environmental sustainability. Here we examine and attempt to disentangle the evolutionary interactions between land-use change and its underlying causes through a historical lens. We compiled and synthesized historical land-use change and various biophysical, political, socioeconomic, and technical datasets, from the Qing dynasty to modern China. The analysis reveals a clear transition period between the 1950s and the 1980s. Before the 1950s, cropland expanded while forested land diminished, which was also accompanied by increasing population; after the 1980s land-use change exhibited new characteristics: changes in cropland, and decoupling of forest from population as a result of agricultural intensification and globalization. Chinese political policies also played an important and complex role, especially during the 1950s–1980s transition periods. Overall, climate change plays an indirect but fundamental role in the dynamics of land use via a series of various cascading effects such as shrinking agricultural production proceeding to population collapse and outbreaks of war. The expected continuation of agricultural intensification this century should be able to support increasing domestic demand for richer diets, but may not be compatible with long-term environmental sustainability.

  12. The analysis of historical seismograms: an important tool for seismic hazard assessment. Case histories from French and Italian earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pino, N.A.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic hazard assessment relies on the knowledge of the source characteristics of past earthquakes. Unfortunately, seismic waveform analysis, representing the most powerful tool for the investigation of earthquake source parameters, is only possible for events occurred in the last 100-120 years, i.e., since seismographs with known response function were developed. Nevertheless, during this time significant earthquakes have been recorded by such instruments and today, also thanks to technological progress, these data can be recovered and analysed by means of modern techniques. In this paper, aiming at giving a general sketch of possible analyses and attainable results in historical seismogram studies, I briefly describe the major difficulties in processing the original waveforms and present a review of the results that I obtained from previous seismogram analysis of selected significant historical earthquakes occurred during the first decades of the 20. century, including (A) the December 28, 1908, Messina straits (southern Italy), (B) the June 11, 1909, Lambesc (southern France) - both of which are the strongest ever recorded instrumentally in their respective countries - and (C) the July 13, 1930, Irpinia (southern Italy) events. For these earthquakes, the major achievements are represented by the assessment of the seismic moment (A, B, C), the geometry and kinematics of faulting (B, C), the fault length and an approximate slip distribution (A, C). The source characteristics of the studied events have also been interpreted in the frame of the tectonic environment active in the respective region of interest. In spite of the difficulties inherent to the investigation of old seismic data, these results demonstrate the invaluable and irreplaceable role of historical seismogram analysis in defining the local seismo-genic potential and, ultimately, for assessing the seismic hazard. The retrieved information is crucial in areas where important civil engineering works

  13. Economic filters for evaluating porphyry copper deposit resource assessments using grade-tonnage deposit models, with examples from the U.S. Geological Survey global mineral resource assessment: Chapter H in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Gilpin R.; Menzie, W. David

    2012-01-01

    An analysis of the amount and location of undiscovered mineral resources that are likely to be economically recoverable is important for assessing the long-term adequacy and availability of mineral supplies. This requires an economic evaluation of estimates of undiscovered resources generated by traditional resource assessments (Singer and Menzie, 2010). In this study, simplified engineering cost models were used to estimate the economic fraction of resources contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits, predicted in a global assessment of copper resources. The cost models of Camm (1991) were updated with a cost index to reflect increases in mining and milling costs since 1989. The updated cost models were used to perform an economic analysis of undiscovered resources estimated in porphyry copper deposits in six tracts located in North America. The assessment estimated undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within 1 kilometer of the land surface in three depth intervals.

  14. Assessment of global motor performance and gross and fine motor skills of infants attending day care centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, Carolina T; Santos, Denise C C; Tolocka, Rute E; Baltieri, Letícia; Gibim, Nathália C; Habechian, Fernanda A P

    2010-01-01

    To analyze the global motor performance and the gross and fine motor skills of infants attending two public child care centers full-time. This was a longitudinal study that included 30 infants assessed at 12 and 17 months of age with the Motor Scale of the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition (Bayley-III). This scale allows the analysis of global motor performance, fine and gross motor performance, and the discrepancy between them. The Wilcoxon test and Spearman's correlation coefficient were used. Most of the participants showed global motor performance within the normal range, but below the reference mean at 12 and 17 months, with 30% classified as having "suspected delays" in at least one of the assessments. Gross motor development was poorer than fine motor development at 12 and at 17 months of age, with great discrepancy between these two subtests in the second assessment. A clear individual variability was observed in fine motor skills, with weak linear correlation between the first and the second assessment of this subtest. A lower individual variability was found in the gross motor skills and global motor performance with positive moderate correlation between assessments. Considering both performance measurements obtained at 12 and 17 months of age, four infants were identified as having a "possible delay in motor development". The study showed the need for closer attention to the motor development of children who attend day care centers during the first 17 months of life, with special attention to gross motor skills (which are considered an integral part of the child's overall development) and to children with suspected delays in two consecutive assessments.

  15. Implementing Solar PV Projects on Historic Buildings and in Historic Districts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandt, A.; Hotchkiss, E.; Walker, A.; Buddenborg, J; Lindberg, J.

    2011-09-01

    Many municipalities, particularly in older communities of the United States, have a large amount of historic buildings and districts. In addition to preserving these historic assets, many municipalities have goals or legislative requirements to procure a certain amount of energy from renewable sources and to become more efficient in their energy use; often, these requirements do not exempt historic buildings. This paper details findings from a workshop held in Denver, Colorado, in June 2010 that brought together stakeholders from both the solar and historic preservation industries. Based on these findings, this paper identifies challenges and recommends solutions for developing solar photovoltaic (PV) projects on historic buildings and in historic districts in such a way as to not affect the characteristics that make a building eligible for historic status.

  16. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verburg, Peter H [Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Ellis, Erle C [Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250 (United States); Letourneau, Aurelien, E-mail: Peter.Verburg@ivm.vu.nl [UMR 5175 Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle and Evolutive, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5 (France)

    2011-07-15

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  17. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H.; Ellis, Erle C.; Letourneau, Aurelien

    2011-07-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  18. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verburg, Peter H; Ellis, Erle C; Letourneau, Aurelien

    2011-01-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  19. Metrological data and risk assessment in France during the Chernobyl accident. Historical statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galle, P.; Paulin, R.; Coursaget, J.

    2003-01-01

    Metrological data and risk assessment in France during the Chernobyl accident. Historical statement. The authors indicate the origin of the data used by the French Public Health Authority in 1986 to estimate the risk of the radioactive fall out following the Chernobyl accident. The technical means developed in order to establish this data, and the precedent experience gained, are described. The principal results are given. The terms of the 28 May 1986 note to the Academy of Sciences by R. Latarjet, which concluded that the low level of this fallout did not justify any countermeasure, except the control of the imported food, are confirmed. Rational dispositions are required in order to improve the information of the population, referring to the Swedish model, which involves the intervention of the medical staff specialized in radio-toxicology, radio-pathology, nuclear medicine, and especially trained. To cite this article: P. Galle et al., C. R. Biologies 326 (2003). (authors)

  20. Attributing impacts to emissions traced to major fossil energy and cement producers over specific historical time periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Allen, M. R.; Boneham, J.; Heede, R.; Dalton, M. W.; Licker, R.

    2017-12-01

    Given the progress in climate change attribution research over the last decade, attribution studies can inform policymakers guided by the UNFCCC principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities." Historically this has primarily focused on nations, yet requests for information on the relative role of the fossil energy sector are growing. We present an approach that relies on annual CH4 and CO2 emissions from production through to the sale of products from the largest industrial fossil fuel and cement production company records from the mid-nineteenth century to present (Heede 2014). Analysis of the global trends with all the natural and human drivers compared with a scenario without the emissions traced to major carbon producers over full historical versus select periods of recent history can be policy relevant. This approach can be applied with simple climate models and earth system models depending on the type of climate impacts being investigated. For example, results from a simple climate model, using best estimate parameters and emissions traced to 90 largest carbon producers, illustrate the relative difference in global mean surface temperature increase over 1880-2010 after removing these emissions from 1980-2010 (29-35%) compared with removing these emissions over 1880-2010 (42-50%). The changing relative contributions from the largest climate drivers can be important to help assess the changing risks for stakeholders adapting to and reducing exposure and vulnerability to regional climate change impacts.

  1. The Historical Past as a Factor of Sociocultural Transformations of Postmodernity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor S. Baklanov

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The content of the reflexive process over the historical past is substantiated in the article. The character of influence on this process in the conditions of social development in the 21st century is studied. The reasons of eventually accumulated mistrust to credibility of knowledge about the past are considered; at the same time within the postmodern tradition it led to reinterpreting the historical past by postmodernists who deny its sanctity and self-sufficiency. The category of "modernity" that is a complex temporally dispersed category which can combine the past, present and future. In the article the idea that the strategies of implementing global social project not only determine the focus and content of "progressive" and in fact technogenic and utilitarian social development but also act as a catalyst to rethink social and individual values, ideals and principles is highlighted. In this connection traditionalistic historical consciousness is going through a period of underlying culture and value transformations. Transformations of historical consciousness affect such an important component of collective goal-setting as attitude to the "past" as to a certain image, a picture of a bygone reality. In the modern world the fashion for the "tradition" and the "archaic" becomes noticeable and certain communities try to archaize their political, economic and sociocultural practice. As a result "modernity" as a centered European project of 17-19 centuries (project "Modern" transforms into "postmodernity" that is not only mosaic-like "postmodernism" but also "ultramodernism" which combines the "past", "present" and "future" and where diverse political and social practices coexist in a market that is more and more unified by the globalization processes. In these conditions a rising factor of social uncertainty complicates planning and forecasting on the state of future society.

  2. Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to

  3. Post flooding damage assessment of earth dams and historical reservoirs using non-invasive geophysical techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sentenac, Philippe; Benes, Vojtech; Budinsky, Vladimir; Keenan, Helen; Baron, Ron

    2017-11-01

    This paper describes the use of four geophysical techniques to map the structural integrity of historical earth reservoir embankments which are susceptible to natural decay with time. The four techniques that were used to assess the post flood damage were 1. A fast scanning technique using a dipole electromagnetic profile apparatus (GEM2), 2. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) in order to obtain a high resolution image of the shape of the damaged/seepage zone, 3. Self-Potential surveys were carried out to relate the detected seepage evolution and change of the water displacement inside the embankment, 4. The washed zone in the areas with piping was characterised with microgravimetry. The four geophysical techniques used were evaluated against the case studies of two reservoirs in South Bohemia, Czech Republic. A risk approach based on the Geophysical results was undertaken for the reservoir embankments. The four techniques together enabled a comprehensive non-invasive assessment whereby remedial action could be recommended where required. Conclusions were also drawn on the efficiency of the techniques to be applied for embankments with wood structures.

  4. Simulated Climate Impacts of Mexico City's Historical Urban Expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson-Lira, Valeria

    Urbanization, a direct consequence of land use and land cover change, is responsible for significant modification of local to regional scale climates. It is projected that the greatest urban growth of this century will occur in urban areas in the developing world. In addition, there is a significant research gap in emerging nations concerning this topic. Thus, this research focuses on the assessment of climate impacts related to urbanization on the largest metropolitan area in Latin America: Mexico City. Numerical simulations using a state-of-the-science regional climate model are utilized to address a trio of scientifically relevant questions with wide global applicability. The importance of an accurate representation of land use and land cover is first demonstrated through comparison of numerical simulations against observations. Second, the simulated effect of anthropogenic heating is quantified. Lastly, numerical simulations are performed using pre-historic scenarios of land use and land cover to examine and quantify the impact of Mexico City's urban expansion and changes in surface water features on its regional climate.

  5. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  6. Global service nature of contemporary crypto-currencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellana Molchanova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem caused by the crisis of the Jamaican currency system, namely, with the search for new forms of money that can replace dollars in international transactions. Alternative currency as the best global option has been searched both by national governments and international organisations, as well as the world’s leading scientists. All current studies, and our research, are based on historical definition of the nature, forms and other aspects of money. The theoretical principles that have been studied helped confirm our hypotheses about the existence of absolutely new forms of money, including electronic. In this study, we proved that there are all necessary prerequisites for existence of electronic money as a new global currency. The key risks and possible directions of their neutralising were analysed. This allowed reviewing the hypothesis of introduction of fiduciary electronic money, studying historical facts of their existence and substantiating their implementation

  7. Unrecorded alcohol use: a global modelling study based on nominal group assessments and survey data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Probst, Charlotte; Manthey, Jakob; Merey, Aaron; Rylett, Margaret; Rehm, Jürgen

    2018-01-27

    Alcohol use is among the most important risk factors for burden of disease globally. An estimated quarter of the total alcohol consumed globally is unrecorded. However, due partly to the challenges associated with its assessment, evidence concerning the magnitude of unrecorded alcohol use is sparse. This study estimated country-specific proportions of unrecorded alcohol used in 2015. A statistical model was developed for data prediction using data on the country-specific proportion of unrecorded alcohol use from nominal group expert assessments and secondary, nationally representative survey data and country-level covariates. Estimates were calculated for the country level, for four income groups and globally. A total of 129 participants from 49 countries were included in the nominal group expert assessments. The survey data comprised 66 538 participants from 16 countries. Experts completed a standardized questionnaire assessing the country-specific proportion of unrecorded alcohol. In the national surveys, the number of standard drinks of total and unrecorded alcohol use was assessed for the past 7 days. Based on predictions for 167 countries, a population-weighted average of 27.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 10.4-44.9%] of the total alcohol consumed in 2015 was unrecorded. The proportion of unrecorded alcohol was lower in high (9.4%, 95% CI = 2.4-16.4%) and upper middle-income countries (18.3%, 95% CI = 9.0-27.6%) and higher in low (43.1%, 95% CI = 26.5-59.7%) and lower middle-income countries (54.4%, 95% CI = 38.1-70.8%). This corresponded to 0.9 (high-income), 1.2 (upper middle-income), 3.2 (lower middle-income) and 1.8 (low-income) litres of unrecorded alcohol per capita. A new method for modelling the country-level proportion of unrecorded alcohol use globally showed strong variation among geographical regions and income groups. Lower-income countries were associated with a higher proportion of unrecorded alcohol than higher-income countries

  8. Old ages of two historical Romanian trees assessed by AMS radiocarbon dating

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patrut, Adrian, E-mail: apatrut@gmail.com [Babes-Bolyai University, Department of Chemistry, Arany Janos 11, 400028 Cluj-Napoca (Romania); Reden, Karl F. von [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Geology and Geophysics, NOSAMS Facility, 360 Woods Hole Rd., Mailstop 8, Woods Hole, MA 02543 (United States); Lowy, Daniel A. [FlexEl, LLC, 387 Technology Drive, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Patrut, Roxana T. [Babes-Bolyai University, Department of Biology and Geology, Gh. Bilascu 44, 400015 Cluj-Napoca (Romania); Lucian Vaida, D. [Museum of Border Regiment Nasaud, Granicerilor 19, 425200 Nasaud (Romania); Margineanu, Dragos [Babes-Bolyai University, Department of Chemistry, Arany Janos 11, 400028 Cluj-Napoca (Romania)

    2013-01-15

    Two large Romanian poplars are considered to be associated with significant historical events of the past. In order to verify these claims, wood samples collected from the broken trunks of the two poplars were radiocarbon dated by AMS. The oldest radiocarbon dates were found to be 275 {+-} 20 bp for the black poplar of Mocod and 316 {+-} 22 bp for the gray poplar of Rafaila. These values correspond to calibrated ages of 365 {+-} 10 and 465 {+-} 25 years, respectively. The dating results indicate old ages for the two trees, i.e., 455 years for the Mocod poplar and 560 years for the Rafaila poplar. Such age values validate historical information on the two large Romanian trees.

  9. Using beryllium-7 to assess cross-tropopause transport in global models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Hongyu [National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA (United States); Considine, David B. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States); Horowitz, Larry W. [NOAA Geophysical Fluid and Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States); and others

    2016-07-01

    We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) modeling framework to assess the utility of cosmogenic beryllium-7 ({sup 7}Be), a natural aerosol tracer, for evaluating cross-tropopause transport in global models. The GMI chemical transport model (CTM) was used to simulate atmospheric {sup 7}Be distributions using four different meteorological data sets (GEOS1-STRAT DAS, GISS II{sup '} GCM, fvGCM, and GEOS4-DAS), featuring significantly different stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) characteristics. The simulations were compared with the upper troposphere and/or lower stratosphere (UT/LS) {sup 7}Be climatology constructed from ∝ 25 years of aircraft and balloon data, as well as climatological records of surface concentrations and deposition fluxes. Comparison of the fraction of surface air of stratospheric origin estimated from the {sup 7}Be simulations with observationally derived estimates indicates excessive cross-tropopause transport at mid-latitudes in simulations using GEOS1-STRAT and at high latitudes using GISS II{sup '} meteorological data. These simulations also overestimate {sup 7}Be deposition fluxes at mid-latitudes (GEOS1-STRAT) and at high latitudes (GISS II{sup '}), respectively. We show that excessive cross-tropopause transport of {sup 7}Be corresponds to overestimated stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone. Our perspectives on STE in these meteorological fields based on {sup 7}Be simulations are consistent with previous modeling studies of tropospheric ozone using the same meteorological fields. We conclude that the observational constraints for {sup 7}Be and observed {sup 7}Be total deposition fluxes can be used routinely as a first-order assessment of cross-tropopause transport in global models.

  10. Assessing nutritional status in cancer: role of the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jager-Wittenaar, Harriët; Ottery, Faith D

    2017-09-01

    The Scored Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) is used internationally as the reference method for proactive risk assessment (screening), assessment, monitoring and triaging for interventions in patients with cancer. This review aims to explain the rationale behind and data supporting the PG-SGA, and to provide an overview of recent developments in the utilization of the PG-SGA and the PG-SGA Short Form. The PG-SGA was designed in the context of a paradigm known as 'anabolic competence'. Uniquely, the PG-SGA evaluates the patient's status as a dynamic rather than static process. The PG-SGA has received new attention, particularly as a screening instrument for nutritional risk or deficit, identifying treatable impediments and guiding patients and professionals in triaging for interdisciplinary interventions. The international use of the PG-SGA indicates a critical need for high-quality and linguistically validated translations of the PG-SGA. As a 4-in-1 instrument, the PG-SGA can streamline clinic work flow and improve the quality of interaction between the clinician and the patient. The availability of multiple high-quality language versions of the PG-SGA enables the inclusion of the PG-SGA in international multicenter studies, facilitating meta-analysis and benchmarking across countries.

  11. Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyenga, P J; Howden, S M; Meinke, H; Hall, W B

    2001-09-01

    Crop production is likely to change in the future as a result of global changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere and climate. APSIM, a cropping system model, was used to investigate the potential impact of these changes on the distribution of cropping along an environmental transect in south Australia. The effects of several global change scenarios were studied, including: (1) historical climate and CO2 levels, (2) historic climate with elevated CO2 (700 ppm), (3) warmer climate (+2.4 degrees C) +700 ppm CO2, (4) drier climate (-15% summer, -20% winter rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2, (5) wetter climate (+10% summer rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2 and (6) most likely climate changes (+1.8 degrees C, -8% annual rainfall) +700 ppm CO2. Based on an analysis of the current cropping boundary, a criterion of 1 t/ha was used to assess potential changes in the boundary under global change. Under most scenarios, the cropping boundary moved northwards with a further 240,000 ha potentially being available for cropping. The exception was the reduced rainfall scenario (4), which resulted in a small retreat of cropping from its current extent. However, the impact of this scenario may only be small (in the order of 10,000-20,000 ha reduction in cropping area). Increases in CO2 levels over the current climate record have resulted in small but significant increases in simulated yields. Model limitations are discussed.

  12. HIV/AIDS: global trends, global funds and delivery bottlenecks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadingham Jacqui

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Globalisation affects all facets of human life, including health and well being. The HIV/AIDS epidemic has highlighted the global nature of human health and welfare and globalisation has given rise to a trend toward finding common solutions to global health challenges. Numerous international funds have been set up in recent times to address global health challenges such as HIV. However, despite increasingly large amounts of funding for health initiatives being made available to poorer regions of the world, HIV infection rates and prevalence continue to increase world wide. As a result, the AIDS epidemic is expanding and intensifying globally. Worst affected are undoubtedly the poorer regions of the world as combinations of poverty, disease, famine, political and economic instability and weak health infrastructure exacerbate the severe and far-reaching impacts of the epidemic. One of the major reasons for the apparent ineffectiveness of global interventions is historical weaknesses in the health systems of underdeveloped countries, which contribute to bottlenecks in the distribution and utilisation of funds. Strengthening these health systems, although a vital component in addressing the global epidemic, must however be accompanied by mitigation of other determinants as well. These are intrinsically complex and include social and environmental factors, sexual behaviour, issues of human rights and biological factors, all of which contribute to HIV transmission, progression and mortality. An equally important factor is ensuring an equitable balance between prevention and treatment programmes in order to holistically address the challenges presented by the epidemic.

  13. Geothermal energy in deep aquifers : A global assessment of the resource base for direct heat utilization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Limberger, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/371572037; Boxem, T.; Pluymaekers, Maarten; Bruhn, David; Manzella, Adelle; Calcagno, Philippe; Beekman, F.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/123556856; Cloetingh, S.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/069161836; van Wees, J.-D.

    In this paper we present results of a global resource assessment for geothermal energy within deep aquifers for direct heat utilization. Greenhouse heating, spatial heating, and spatial cooling are considered in this assessment. We derive subsurface temperatures from geophysical data and apply a

  14. Geothermal energy in deep aquifers: A global assessment of the resource base for direct heat utilization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Limberger, J.; Boxem, T.; Pluymaekers, M.; Bruhn, D.; Manzella, A.; Calcagno, P.; Beekman, F.; Cloetingh, S.; Wees, J.D. van

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we present results of a global resource assessment for geothermal energy within deep aquifers for direct heat utilization. Greenhouse heating, spatial heating, and spatial cooling are considered in this assessment. We derive subsurface temperatures from geophysical data and apply a

  15. Graphical Methodology of Global Pollution Index for the Environmental Impact Assessment Using Two Environmental Components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corneliu Cojocaru

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the applied methods for environmental impact assessment is the index of global pollution (IGP proposed by Rojanschi in 1991. This methodology enables the global estimation for the ecosystem state affected more or less by human activities. Unfortunately, Rojanschi’s method has a limitation; it can be applied only if at least three environmental components are considered. Frequently, many environmental impact assessment applications rely on analysis of only two environmental components. Therefore, this work aimed to develop a new graphical method to extend Rojanschi’s approach for the case of two environmental components. The proposed method avoids the average value of evaluation grades and uses only the graphical correspondence for calculation of the index of global pollution. A right-angle triangle graph methodology was proposed, where bases represented the values of evaluation grades. Thus, for the case of two environmental components, the index of global pollution was calculated as the relation between the ideal and real ecosystem states represented by the ratio between areas of external and enclosed right triangles. The developed graphical method was tested and validated for real case studies: the environmental impact assessment from a refinery located on the Romanian Black Sea Coast considering Air and Water environmental components and from a coal-fired thermoelectric power plant from Eastern Romania regarding Air and Soil environmental components. In this way, it was provided a reliable and faster tool to be used for the pollution characterization of human-derived chemicals for better decisions in risk management.

  16. Looking back to move forward on model validation: insights from a global model of agricultural land use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldos, Uris Lantz C; Hertel, Thomas W

    2013-01-01

    Global agricultural models are becoming indispensable in the debate over climate change impacts and mitigation policies. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to validate these models and identify critical areas for improvement. In this letter, we illustrate both the opportunities and the challenges in undertaking such model validation, using the SIMPLE model of global agriculture. We look back at the long run historical period 1961–2006 and, using a few key historical drivers—population, incomes and total factor productivity—we find that SIMPLE is able to accurately reproduce historical changes in cropland use, crop price, crop production and average crop yields at the global scale. Equally important is our investigation into how the specific assumptions embedded in many agricultural models will likely influence these results. We find that those global models which are largely biophysical—thereby ignoring the price responsiveness of demand and supply—are likely to understate changes in crop production, while failing to capture the changes in cropland use and crop price. Likewise, global models which incorporate economic responses, but do so based on limited time series estimates of these responses, are likely to understate land use change and overstate price changes. (letter)

  17. Assessment of Global Mercury Deposition through Litterfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xun; Bao, Zhengduo; Lin, Che-Jen; Yuan, Wei; Feng, Xinbin

    2016-08-16

    There is a large uncertainty in the estimate of global dry deposition of atmospheric mercury (Hg). Hg deposition through litterfall represents an important input to terrestrial forest ecosystems via cumulative uptake of atmospheric Hg (most Hg(0)) to foliage. In this study, we estimate the quantity of global Hg deposition through litterfall using statistical modeling (Monte Carlo simulation) of published data sets of litterfall biomass production, tree density, and Hg concentration in litter samples. On the basis of the model results, the global annual Hg deposition through litterfall is estimated to be 1180 ± 710 Mg yr(-1), more than two times greater than the estimate by GEOS-Chem. Spatial distribution of Hg deposition through litterfall suggests that deposition flux decreases spatially from tropical to temperate and boreal regions. Approximately 70% of global Hg(0) dry deposition occurs in the tropical and subtropical regions. A major source of uncertainty in this study is the heterogeneous geospatial distribution of available data. More observational data in regions (Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America) where few data sets exist will greatly improve the accuracy of the current estimate. Given that the quantity of global Hg deposition via litterfall is typically 2-6 times higher than Hg(0) evasion from forest floor, global forest ecosystems represent a strong Hg(0) sink.

  18. Assessing compatibility of direct detection data: halo-independent global likelihood analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gelmini, Graciela B. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA,475 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Huh, Ji-Haeng [CERN Theory Division,CH-1211, Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Witte, Samuel J. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA,475 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)

    2016-10-18

    We present two different halo-independent methods to assess the compatibility of several direct dark matter detection data sets for a given dark matter model using a global likelihood consisting of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Gaussian or Poisson likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function (we prove that it is a unique piecewise constant function with a number of down steps smaller than or equal to a maximum number that we compute) and construct a two-sided pointwise confidence band at any desired confidence level, which can then be compared with those derived from the extended likelihood alone to assess the joint compatibility of the data. In the second method we define a “constrained parameter goodness-of-fit” test statistic, whose p-value we then use to define a “plausibility region” (e.g. where p≥10%). For any halo function not entirely contained within the plausibility region, the level of compatibility of the data is very low (e.g. p<10%). We illustrate these methods by applying them to CDMS-II-Si and SuperCDMS data, assuming dark matter particles with elastic spin-independent isospin-conserving interactions or exothermic spin-independent isospin-violating interactions.

  19. Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

    2016-12-01

    The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

  20. The future of the global environment. A model-based analysis supporting UNEP's first global environment outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakkes, J.; Van Woerden, J.; Alcamo, J.; Berk, M.; Bol, P.; Van den Born, G.J.; Ten Brink, B.; Hettelingh, J.P.; Niessen, L.; Langeweg, F.; Swart, R.

    1997-01-01

    Integrated assessments in support of environmental policy have been applied to a number of countries and regions, and to international negotiations. UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook (GEO-1) can be seen as a step towards making the tool of integrated assessment more widely available as a means for focusing action. This technical report documents RIVM's contribution to the GEO-1 report, focusing on the subject 'looking ahead'. It is illustrated that a 'what if' analysis helps to look beyond the delays in environmental and resource processes. This report illustrates that integrated assessment and modelling techniques can be excellent tools for environment and development policy-setting. The methodology, however, will need to be further developed and adapted to the realities and expectations of diverse regions, incorporating alternative policy strategies and development scenarios. This report focuses primarily on the period 1970-2015, because reliable historical data are often only generally available from 1970 onwards and the year 2015 is believed to match the time perspective of decision-makers. The findings of the analysis are reported in terms of six regions, corresponding with the division of the UNEP regional offices. Questions asked are: how will socioeconomic driving forces affect freshwater and land resources, and how will these changes mutually interact, and why are these changes important for society? Chapter 2 deals with the development of the social and economic driving forces. In the Chapters 3 and 4 it is discussed how this pressure influences selected aspects of the environment. Chapter 3 alone addresses the importance of selected elements of the interacting global element cycles for environmental quality, while Chapter 4 addresses land resources, their potential for food production and associated dependence on freshwater resources. The impacts on selected components of natural areas (Chapter 5) and society (Chapter 6) are subsequently addressed

  1. Links that speak: The global language network and its association with global fame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronen, Shahar; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Kevin Z.; Vespignani, Alessandro; Pinker, Steven; Hidalgo, César A.

    2014-01-01

    Languages vary enormously in global importance because of historical, demographic, political, and technological forces. However, beyond simple measures of population and economic power, there has been no rigorous quantitative way to define the global influence of languages. Here we use the structure of the networks connecting multilingual speakers and translated texts, as expressed in book translations, multiple language editions of Wikipedia, and Twitter, to provide a concept of language importance that goes beyond simple economic or demographic measures. We find that the structure of these three global language networks (GLNs) is centered on English as a global hub and around a handful of intermediate hub languages, which include Spanish, German, French, Russian, Portuguese, and Chinese. We validate the measure of a language’s centrality in the three GLNs by showing that it exhibits a strong correlation with two independent measures of the number of famous people born in the countries associated with that language. These results suggest that the position of a language in the GLN contributes to the visibility of its speakers and the global popularity of the cultural content they produce. PMID:25512502

  2. AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments for 1.5°C and 2.0°C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2017-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study performs a proof-of-concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the framework. This effort responds to the request by UNFCCC for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), HAPPI and CMIP5 ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economic models, site-based crop models, and within-country regional economic models. CGRA results show that at the global scale, mixed areas of positive and negative simulated yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions led to overall declines in productivity at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. These projected global yield changes resulted in increases in prices of major commodities in a global economic model. Simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on region and crop, but with more negative effects on productivity at 2.0°C than at 1.5°C for the most part. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, these productivity declines resulted generally in small positive effects on regional farm livelihoods, showing that farming systems should continue to be viable under high mitigation scenarios. CGRA protocols focus on how mitigation actions and effects differ across scales, with main mechanisms studied in the integrated assessment models being policies and technologies that reduce direct non-CO2 emissions from agriculture, reduce CO2 emissions from land use change and forest sink enhancement

  3. The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

    2013-12-01

    Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

  4. Global warming impact assessment of a crop residue gasification project—A dynamic LCA perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jin; Chen, Bin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic LCA is proposed considering time-varying factors. • Dynamic LCA is used to highlight GHG emission hotspots of gasification projects. • Indicators are proposed to reflect GHG emission performance. • Dynamic LCA alters the static LCA results. • Crop residue gasification project has high GHG abatement potential. - Abstract: Bioenergy from crop residues is one of the prevailing sustainable energy sources owing to the abundant reserves worldwide. Amongst a wide variety of energy conversion technologies, crop residue gasification has been regarded as promising owing to its higher energy efficiency than that of direct combustion. However, prior to large-scale application of crop residue gasification, the lifetime environmental performance should be investigated to shed light on sustainable strategies. As traditional static life cycle assessment (LCA) does not include temporal information for dynamic processes, we proposed a dynamic life cycle assessment approach, which improves the static LCA approach by considering time-varying factors, e.g., greenhouse gas characterization factors and energy intensity. As the gasification project can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) discharge compared with traditional direct fuel combustion, trade-offs between the benefits of global warming mitigation and the impact on global warming of crop residue gasification should be considered. Therefore, indicators of net global warming mitigation benefit and global warming impact mitigation period are put forward to justify the feasibility of the crop residue gasification project. The proposed dynamic LCA and indicators were then applied to estimate the life cycle global warming impact of a crop residue gasification system in China. Results show that the crop residue gasification project has high net global warming mitigation benefit and a short global warming impact mitigation period, indicating its prominent potential in alleviating global warming impact. During

  5. An assessment of global meteorological droughts based on HAPPI experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie

    2017-04-01

    Droughts caused water shortages could lead to serious consequences on the socioeconomic and environmental well-being. In the context of changing climate, droughts monitoring, attributions and impact assessments have been performed using observations (e.g., Sun et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2016) and climate model projections (e.g., Liu et al., 2016, 2017); with expectation that such scientific knowledge would feed into long-term adaptation and mitigation plans to tackle potentially unfavorable future drought impacts in a warming world. Inspired by the 2015 Paris Agreement, the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts) experiments were set up to better inform international policymakers about the socioeconomic and environmental impacts under less severe global warming conditions. This study aims to understand the potential shift in meteorological droughts from the past into the future on a global scale. Based on the HAPPI data, we evaluate the change in drought related indices (i.e., PET/P, PDSI) from the past to the future scenarios (1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius warming). Here we present some early results (MIROC5 as demonstration) on identified hotspots and discuss the differences in severity of droughts between these warming worlds and associated consequences. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1 Liu W, and Sun F, 2016. Assessing estimates of evaporative demand in climate models using observed pan evaporation over China. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere 121, 8329-8349 Zhang J, Sun F, Xu J, Chen Y, Sang Y, -F, and Liu C, 2016. Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model. Geophysical Research Letters 43, 206-213 Sun F, Roderick M, Farquhar G, 2012. Changes in the variability of global land precipitation

  6. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  7. Popper's Theory of the Searchlight : A Historical Assessment of Its Significance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ter Hark, Michel; Parusnikova, Z; Cohen, R

    2009-01-01

    On the basis of a correspondence between Karl Popper and the Dutch psychologist Adriaan de Groot, it is argued that the former's epistemology of the searchlight is historically rooted in early cognitive psychology of Otto Selz. It is furthermore argued that Popper's later critique of information

  8. Geothermal energy in deep aquifers : A global assessment of the resource base for direct heat utilization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Limberger, Jon; Boxem, Thijs; Pluymaekers, Maarten; Bruhn, D.F.; Manzella, Adele; Calcagno, Philippe; Beekman, Fred; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.; van Wees, Jan Diederik

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we present results of a global resource assessment for geothermal energy within deep aquifers for direct heat utilization. Greenhouse heating, spatial heating, and spatial cooling are considered in this assessment. We derive subsurface temperatures from geophysical data and apply a

  9. Old ages of two historical Romanian trees assessed by AMS radiocarbon dating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patrut, Adrian; Reden, Karl F. von; Lowy, Daniel A.; Patrut, Roxana T.; Lucian Vaida, D.; Margineanu, Dragos

    2013-01-01

    Two large Romanian poplars are considered to be associated with significant historical events of the past. In order to verify these claims, wood samples collected from the broken trunks of the two poplars were radiocarbon dated by AMS. The oldest radiocarbon dates were found to be 275 ± 20 bp for the black poplar of Mocod and 316 ± 22 bp for the gray poplar of Rafaila. These values correspond to calibrated ages of 365 ± 10 and 465 ± 25 years, respectively. The dating results indicate old ages for the two trees, i.e., 455 years for the Mocod poplar and 560 years for the Rafaila poplar. Such age values validate historical information on the two large Romanian trees.

  10. Santarém: Gateway City of Historic Frontiers of Western Pará

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott William Hoefle

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This article treats the historical role of Santarém as a gateway city of multiplefrontiers of the middle valley of the Amazon and valley of the Tapajós Rivers. Over the centuries the city has controlled a hinterland that underwent a number of economic surges, from collecting natural spices, herbs and fruit of the forest in the beginning of the Portuguese colonization to agro-industry today. Located midway between Belém and Manaus, and historically subordinated to these cities, Santarém today has become a regional center for administrative, commercial, cultural and specialized services. The economic surges and socio-environmental transformations are interpreted according to the global cities network model of Peter Taylor, adapted to the Amazon with the concept of gateway cities from the literature on historical frontiers of the world. 

  11. Mapping Priorities to Focus Cropland Mapping Activities: Fitness Assessment of Existing Global, Regional and National Cropland Maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Waldner

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Timely and accurate information on the global cropland extent is critical for applications in the fields of food security, agricultural monitoring, water management, land-use change modeling and Earth system modeling. On the one hand, it gives detailed location information on where to analyze satellite image time series to assess crop condition. On the other hand, it isolates the agriculture component to focus food security monitoring on agriculture and to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural lands. The cropland class is often poorly captured in global land cover products due to its dynamic nature and the large variety of agro-systems. The overall objective was to evaluate the current availability of cropland datasets in order to propose a strategic planning and effort distribution for future cropland mapping activities and, therefore, to maximize their impact. Following a very comprehensive identification and collection of national to global land cover maps, a multi-criteria analysis was designed at the country level to identify the priority areas for cropland mapping. As a result, the analysis highlighted priority regions, such as Western Africa, Ethiopia, Madagascar and Southeast Asia, for the remote sensing community to focus its efforts. A Unified Cropland Layer at 250 m for the year 2014 was produced combining the fittest products. It was assessed using global validation datasets and yields an overall accuracy ranging from 82%–94%. Masking cropland areas with a global forest map reduced the commission errors from 46% down to 26%. Compared to the GLC-Share and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis-International Food Policy Research Institute (IIASA-IFPRI cropland maps, significant spatial disagreements were found, which might be attributed to discrepancies in the cropland definition. This advocates for a shared definition of cropland, as well as global validation datasets relevant for the

  12. Solution of Fire Protection in Historic Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iringová, Agnes; Idunk, Róbert

    2016-12-01

    The paper introduces optimization of the functional use of renovated spaces in historic buildings in terms of fire risk. It brings assessment of fire protection in the folk house Habánsky Dvor, situated in the village of Veľké Leváre, whose function was changed into the museum. It goes into static analysis of existing load-bearing structures and assessment of their fire resistance according to Eurocodes.

  13. AFM assessment of the surface nano/microstructure on chemically damaged historical and model glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carmona, Noemi; Kowal, Andrzej; Rincon, Jesus-Maria; Villegas, Maria-Angeles

    2010-01-01

    Surface chemical damage on selected historical glasses from 13th to 19th centuries was evaluated by means of atomic force microscopy (AFM). Nano- and microstructure, roughness and topography of ancient glass samples have been compared with those of model glasses prepared by conventional melting at the laboratory with similar compositions to those most frequently found in historical glass pieces. The results obtained allow discussing the chemical degradation mechanisms in terms of the acid and/or basic chemical attack carried out by the combination of gaseous pollutants and environmental humidity. Even though deep corrosion features escape to the observation order of magnitude of the AF microscope used, the AFM technique proves to be quite useful for the study and evaluation of the most common surface pathologies of historical glasses with different compositions once submitted to natural weathering.

  14. AFM assessment of the surface nano/microstructure on chemically damaged historical and model glasses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carmona, Noemi [Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Metalurgicas, CSIC, Avda. Gregorio del Amo, 8, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Kowal, Andrzej [Institute of Catalysis and Surface Chemistry, PAN, ul. Niezapominajek 8, 30239 Cracow (Poland); Rincon, Jesus-Maria [Instituto Eduardo Torroja de Ciencias de la Construccion, CSIC, C. Serrano Galvache s/n, 28033 Madrid (Spain); Villegas, Maria-Angeles, E-mail: mariangeles.villegas@cchs.csic.es [Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Metalurgicas, CSIC, Avda. Gregorio del Amo, 8, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Historia, Centro de Ciencias Humanas y Sociales, CSIC, C. Albasanz, 26-28, 28037 Madrid (Spain)

    2010-01-15

    Surface chemical damage on selected historical glasses from 13th to 19th centuries was evaluated by means of atomic force microscopy (AFM). Nano- and microstructure, roughness and topography of ancient glass samples have been compared with those of model glasses prepared by conventional melting at the laboratory with similar compositions to those most frequently found in historical glass pieces. The results obtained allow discussing the chemical degradation mechanisms in terms of the acid and/or basic chemical attack carried out by the combination of gaseous pollutants and environmental humidity. Even though deep corrosion features escape to the observation order of magnitude of the AF microscope used, the AFM technique proves to be quite useful for the study and evaluation of the most common surface pathologies of historical glasses with different compositions once submitted to natural weathering.

  15. Thrombotic risk assessment in APS: the Global APS Score (GAPSS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciascia, S; Bertolaccini, M L

    2014-10-01

    Recently, we developed a risk score for antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (Global APS Score or GAPSS). This score derived from the combination of independent risk factors for thrombosis and pregnancy loss, taking into account the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) profile (criteria and non-criteria aPL), the conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and the autoimmune antibodies profile. We demonstrate that risk profile in APS can be successfully assessed, suggesting that GAPSS can be a potential quantitative marker of APS-related clinical manifestations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  16. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Ellis, E.C.; Letourneau, A.

    2011-01-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here

  17. Transformations over Time or Sudden Change:Historical Perspectives on Mass Migrations and Human Lives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Hoerder

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Both migrations and attitudes towards them have deep historical roots. To pronounce the present migration and the economic crisis triggered by derivative bankers in the fall of 2008 as “new without historical precedent” overlooks the impact of patterns of the past on the present and prevents an understanding being reached of continuities and comparisons. It is not migrants who are “uprooted”, as some would have it, but historical memory is deliberately being uprooted. This essay starts by addressing the multiple problems of present-day debates about migration and historicising the perspectives. It critiques the anti-immigrant ascriptions, labels and ideologies. It goes on to present the data and discuss the geographies of migrant trajectories in the context of translocal, transregional, transnational and global connectivity. An integrative Transcultural Societal Studies approach will be proposed. The essay will then deal with migrant agency, that is the actions of migrants, criticising “victimization” approaches and argue that Otherness is a resource as well as a framework for exploitation. Remittances will serve as an example of the intersection between migrant agency and states’ needs. The conclusion will briefly place the present in the context of global inequalities, of the economic aspect and of anti-immigrantism, as well as the ideological national-essentialist aspect.

  18. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  19. Protection of historic buildings against environmental pollution of vibrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kowalska-Koczwara Alicja

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Historic buildings in Poland are largely neglected objects that small percentage is preserved in its original form. Unrelenting in the case of historic buildings is a time that brings with it the natural processes of aging of buildings, but also the history of the object which is often marked by military conflicts, fires or even incompetently carried out reconstruction. Nowadays historic buildings are also destroyed by the rapid development of infrastructure and residential construction. This development could lead to changes of water in the soil, make changes in the geologic al structure or cause exposure of the historic building to the new influences (eg. traffic vibrations, to which building has not been subjected so far. Vibrations are often omitted in environmental issues, although the protection against noise and vibration has its place in the Law on Environmental Protection. This article presents the methodology for the measurement and interpretation of vibration influence on historic buildings and the assessment methods of technical condition of historic building on the example of dynamic measurements made on St. Nicholas Church in Krakow. The importance of well-done crack-by-crack documentation and characterization of damages based on damage index is shown. Difficulties that can be encountered when determining the causes of technical condition of historic buildings are also shown. Based on the example of the Church in the article are also given the possible protection solutions of historic structures from vibrations.

  20. Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

  1. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  2. Behind the Scenes of Music Education in China: A Survey of Historical Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Wai-Chung

    2013-01-01

    This study explores how the government of mainland China values Chinese nationalism as a component of its historical memory and traces its relationship with music education from the twentieth century to the global age within broader social contexts. In a rapidly commercializing and modernizing China, nationalism remains the main driving force…

  3. Historical versus contemporary medicinal plant uses in Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soelberg, Jens; Asase, A; Akwetey, G

    2015-01-01

    among contemporary medicinal plant uses in Ghana and represent some of the most important Ghanaian medicinal plant species. However, 93 (69%) of the historical uses could not be traced and appears to be discontinued or forgotten. Among the Ga, two medicinal plants species have become rare or locally......ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: Three extraordinary, historical documents stemming from observations made in 1697, 1803 and 1817 quote medicinal plant uses among the Fante, Ga and Ashanti people of present-day Ghana, and can be linked to original botanical specimens in European herbaria....... This provides a unique opportunity to gain insight to the historical materia medica of Ghana and compare this to contemporary medicinal plant uses. By critical literary and taxonomic review, the present study (re-)establishes the earliest known history of many important Ghanaian medicinal plants, and assesses...

  4. Historical emissions critical for mapping decarbonization pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majkut, J.; Kopp, R. E.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2016-12-01

    Policymakers have set a goal of limiting temperature increase from human influence on the climate. This motivates the identification of decarbonization pathways to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2. In this context, the future behavior of CO2 sources and sinks define the CO2 emissions necessary to meet warming thresholds with specified probabilities. We adopt a simple model of the atmosphere-land-ocean carbon balance to reflect uncertainty in how natural CO2 sinks will respond to increasing atmospheric CO2 and temperature. Bayesian inversion is used to estimate the probability distributions of selected parameters of the carbon model. Prior probability distributions are chosen to reflect the behavior of CMIP5 models. We then update these prior distributions by running historical simulations of the global carbon cycle and inverting with observationally-based inventories and fluxes of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean and atmosphere. The result is a best-estimate of historical CO2 sources and sinks and a model of how CO2 sources and sinks will vary in the future under various emissions scenarios, with uncertainty. By linking the carbon model to a simple climate model, we calculate emissions pathways and carbon budgets consistent with meeting specific temperature thresholds and identify key factors that contribute to remaining uncertainty. In particular, we show how the assumed history of CO2 emissions from land use change (LUC) critically impacts estimates of the strength of the land CO2 sink via CO2 fertilization. Different estimates of historical LUC emissions taken from the literature lead to significantly different parameterizations of the carbon system. High historical CO2 emissions from LUC lead to a more robust CO2 fertilization effect, significantly lower future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and an increased amount of CO2 that can be emitted to satisfy temperature stabilization targets. Thus, in our model, historical LUC emissions have a

  5. Funding for malaria control 2006–2010: A comprehensive global assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pigott David M

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in international and domestic funding for malaria control, coupled with important declines in malaria incidence and mortality in some regions of the world. As the ongoing climate of financial uncertainty places strains on investment in global health, there is an increasing need to audit the origin, recipients and geographical distribution of funding for malaria control relative to populations at risk of the disease. Methods A comprehensive review of malaria control funding from international donors, bilateral sources and national governments was undertaken to reconstruct total funding by country for each year 2006 to 2010. Regions at risk from Plasmodium falciparum and/or Plasmodium vivax transmission were identified using global risk maps for 2010 and funding was assessed relative to populations at risk. Those nations with unequal funding relative to a regional average were identified and potential explanations highlighted, such as differences in national policies, government inaction or donor neglect. Results US$8.9 billion was disbursed for malaria control and elimination programmes over the study period. Africa had the largest levels of funding per capita-at-risk, with most nations supported primarily by international aid. Countries of the Americas, in contrast, were supported typically through national government funding. Disbursements and government funding in Asia were far lower with a large variation in funding patterns. Nations with relatively high and low levels of funding are discussed. Conclusions Global funding for malaria control is substantially less than required. Inequity in funding is pronounced in some regions particularly when considering the distinct goals of malaria control and malaria elimination. Efforts to sustain and increase international investment in malaria control should be informed by evidence-based assessment of funding equity.

  6. Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter S Rand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

  7. Defining and Acting on Global Health: The Case of Japan and the Refugee Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Leppold

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available What counts as global health? There has been limited discourse to date on the ways in which country-level contexts may shape positioning in global health agendas. By reviewing Japan’s response to the refugee crisis, we demonstrate a clash between rhetoric and action on global responsibility, and suggest that cultural and historical factors may be related to the ways of perceiving and acting upon global health.

  8. Reconstructing Historical Riparian Conditions of Two River Basins in Eastern Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Lynne S.

    2008-09-01

    As land use continues to alter riparian areas, historical information is increasingly needed to help establish reference conditions for monitoring and assessment. I developed and applied a procedure in the John Day and Deschutes river basins of eastern Oregon for synthesizing historical documentary records available across broad spatial areas to reconstruct 19th-century riparian conditions. The study area was stratified by ecoregion and stream physical characteristics to partition regional variability. Three primary data sources—General Land Office survey notes, historical photographs, and written accounts—provided descriptive records, which were grouped by topic to develop common riparian attributes. The number of records for each attribute was tallied by stratum to compare and contrast riparian structure and composition across strata and ecoregions. Detailed descriptions of historical riparian conditions using the original documentary records further illustrated the unique riparian conditions in each stratum. Similarities and differences in historical riparian structure and composition at the stratum and ecoregion levels were evident based on the distributional pattern and numbers of records of attributes across strata. A high number of repeated observations within and among primary data sources helped to corroborate descriptive data. Although these reference data cannot provide the detail needed for rigorous quantitative assessments, they do describe a range of conditions approaching a minimally disturbed condition and provide an important perspective for conducting riparian assessments in highly disturbed regions where least-disturbed reference sites are often poor examples of a desired condition.

  9. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  10. Spatiotemporal models of global soil organic carbon stock to support land degradation assessments at regional and global scales: limitations, challenges and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hengl, Tomislav; Heuvelink, Gerard; Sanderman, Jonathan; MacMillan, Robert

    2017-04-01

    There is an increasing interest in fitting and applying spatiotemporal models that can be used to assess and monitor soil organic carbon stocks (SOCS), for example, in support of the '4 pourmille' initiative aiming at soil carbon sequestration towards climate change adaptation and mitigation and UN's Land Degradation Neutrality indicators and similar degradation assessment projects at regional and global scales. The land cover mapping community has already produced several spatiotemporal data sets with global coverage and at relatively fine resolution e.g. USGS MODIS land cover annual maps for period 2000-2014; European Space Agency land cover maps at 300 m resolution for the year 2000, 2005 and 2010; Chinese GlobeLand30 dataset available for years 2000 and 2010; Columbia University's WRI GlobalForestWatch with deforestation maps at 30 m resolution for the period 2000-2016 (Hansen et al. 2013). These data sets can be used for land degradation assessment and scenario testing at global and regional scales (Wei et al 2014). Currently, however, no compatible global spatiotemporal data sets exist on status of soil quality and/or soil health (Powlson et al. 2013). This paper describes an initial effort to devise and evaluate a procedure for mapping spatio-temporal changes in SOC stocks using a complete stack of soil forming factors (climate, relief, land cover, land use, lithology and living organisms) represented mainly through remote sensing based time series of Earth images. For model building we used some 75,000 geo-referenced soil profiles and a stacks space-time covariates (land cover, land use, biomass, climate) at two standard resolutions: (1) 10 km resolution with data available for period 1920-2014 and (2) 1000 m resolution with data available for period 2000-2014. The initial results show that, although it is technically feasible to produce space time estimates of SOCS that demonstrate the procedure, the estimates are relatively uncertain (<45% of variation

  11. Competition, the Global Crisis, and Alternatives to Neoliberal Capitalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wigger, Angela; Buch-Hansen, Hubert

    2013-01-01

    regulation and other regulatory provisions, excessive competition (over-competition) in the process of capital accumulation has become a major global force with highly detrimental social and environmental downsides. From the vantage point of a historical materialist perspective, the article provides...

  12. Designing a global assessment of climate change on inland fishes and fisheries: knowns and needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paukert, Craig P.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Beard, T. Douglas; Chen, Yushun; Cooke, Steven J.; Cooperman, Michael S.; Cowx, Ian G.; Infante, Dana M.; Ibengwe, Lilian; Myers, Bonnie; Nguyen, Phu Hoa; Winfield, Ian J.

    2017-01-01

    To date, there are few comprehensive assessments of how climate change affects inland finfish, fisheries, and aquaculture at a global scale, but one is necessary to identify research needs and commonalities across regions and to help guide decision making and funding priorities. Broadly, the consequences of climate change on inland fishes will impact global food security, the livelihoods of people who depend on inland capture and recreational fisheries. However, understanding how climate change will affect inland fishes and fisheries has lagged behind marine assessments. Building from a North American inland fisheries assessment, we convened an expert panel from seven countries to provide a first-step to a framework for determining how to approach an assessment of how climate change may affect inland fishes, capture fisheries, and aquaculture globally. Starting with the small group helped frame the key questions (e.g., who is the audience? What is the best approach and spatial scale?). Data gaps identified by the group include: the tolerances of inland fisheries to changes in temperature, stream flows, salinity, and other environmental factors linked to climate change, and the adaptive capacity of fishes and fisheries to adjust to these changes. These questions are difficult to address, but long-term and large-scale datasets are becoming more readily available as a means to test hypotheses related to climate change. We hope this perspective will help researchers and decision makers identify research priorities and provide a framework to help sustain inland fish populations and fisheries for the diversity of users around the globe.

  13. Costs of eliminating malaria and the impact of the global fund in 34 countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brittany Zelman

    Full Text Available International financing for malaria increased more than 18-fold between 2000 and 2011; the largest source came from The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund. Countries have made substantial progress, but achieving elimination requires sustained finances to interrupt transmission and prevent reintroduction. Since 2011, global financing for malaria has declined, fueling concerns that further progress will be impeded, especially for current malaria-eliminating countries that may face resurgent malaria if programs are disrupted.This study aims to 1 assess past total and Global Fund funding to the 34 current malaria-eliminating countries, and 2 estimate their future funding needs to achieve malaria elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030.Historical funding is assessed against trends in country-level malaria annual parasite incidences (APIs and income per capita. Following Kizewski et al. (2007, program costs to eliminate malaria and prevent reintroduction through 2030 are estimated using a deterministic model. The cost parameters are tailored to a package of interventions aimed at malaria elimination and prevention of reintroduction.The majority of Global Fund-supported countries experiencing increases in total funding from 2005 to 2010 coincided with reductions in malaria APIs and also overall GNI per capita average annual growth. The total amount of projected funding needed for the current malaria-eliminating countries to achieve elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030 is approximately US$8.5 billion, or about $1.84 per person at risk per year (PPY (ranging from $2.51 PPY in 2014 to $1.43 PPY in 2030.Although external donor funding, particularly from the Global Fund, has been key for many malaria-eliminating countries, sustained and sufficient financing is critical for furthering global malaria elimination. Projected cost estimates for elimination provide policymakers with an indication of the

  14. How do glacier inventory data aid global glacier assessments and projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hock, R.

    2017-12-01

    Large-scale glacier modeling relies heavily on datasets that are collected by many individuals across the globe, but managed and maintained in a coordinated fashion by international data centers. The Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) provides the framework for coordinating and making available a suite of data sets such as the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI), the Glacier Thickness Dataset or the World Glacier Inventory (WGI). These datasets have greatly increased our ability to assess global-scale glacier mass changes. These data have also been vital for projecting the glacier mass changes of all mountain glaciers in the world outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet, a total >200,000 glaciers covering an area of more than 700,000 km2. Using forcing from 8 to 15 GCMs and 4 different emission scenarios, global-scale glacier evolution models project multi-model mean net mass losses of all glaciers between 7 cm and 24 cm sea-level equivalent by the end of the 21st century. Projected mass losses vary greatly depending on the choice of the forcing climate and emission scenario. Insufficiently constrained model parameters likely are an important reason for large differences found among these studies even when forced by the same emission scenario, especially on regional scales.

  15. Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases 1990-2020

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The data in these Appendices to the Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases (1990-2020) report provide historical and projected estimates of...

  16. THE EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION DURING THE CURRENT GLOBAL CRISIS

    OpenAIRE

    Sabina Tuca

    2013-01-01

    The current economic crisis constitutes a serious test for the process of globalization. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of the current global crisis on economic globalization. To assess the impact of the current crisis on economic globalization, this paper examines the KOF Index of Globalization, before and during the crisis. The findings generally support the idea that economic globalization has been, in fact, weakened, after the onset of the current crisis. However, t...

  17. Prospects for development of unified global flood observation and prediction systems (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Floods are among the most damaging of natural hazards, with global flood losses in 2011 alone estimated to have exceeded $100B. Historically, flood economic damages have been highest in the developed world (due in part to encroachment on historical flood plains), but loss of life, and human impacts have been greatest in the developing world. However, as the 2011 Thailand floods show, industrializing countries, many of which do not have well developed flood protection systems, are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages as they become more industrialized. At present, unified global flood observation and prediction systems are in their infancy; notwithstanding that global weather forecasting is a mature field. The summary for this session identifies two evolving capabilities that hold promise for development of more sophisticated global flood forecast systems: global hydrologic models and satellite remote sensing (primarily of precipitation, but also of flood inundation). To this I would add the increasing sophistication and accuracy of global precipitation analysis (and forecast) fields from numerical weather prediction models. In this brief overview, I will review progress in all three areas, and especially the evolution of hydrologic data assimilation which integrates modeling and data sources. I will also comment on inter-governmental and inter-agency cooperation, and related issues that have impeded progress in the development and utilization of global flood observation and prediction systems.

  18. Understanding Global Systems Today—A Calibration of the World3-03 Model between 1995 and 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Pasqualino

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In 1972 the Limits to Growth report was published. It used the World3 model to better understand the dynamics of global systems and their relationship to finite resource availability, land use, and persistent pollution accumulation. The trends of resource depletion and degradation of physical systems which were identified by Limits to Growth have continued. Although World3 forecast scenarios are based on key measures and assumptions that cannot be easily assessed using available data (i.e., non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, the dynamics of growth components of the model can be compared with publicly available global data trends. Based on Scenario 2 of the Limits to Growth study, we present a calibration of the updated World3-03 model using historical data from 1995 to 2012 to better understand the dynamics of today’s economic and resource system. Given that accurate data on physical limits does not currently exist, the dynamics of overshoot to global limits are not assessed. In this paper we offer a new interpretation of the parametrisation of World3-03 using these data to explore how its assumptions on global dynamics, environmental footprints and responses have changed over the past 40 years. The results show that human society has invested more to abate persistent pollution, to increase food productivity and have a more productive service sector.

  19. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

  20. Luminescence dating of some historical/pre-historical natural hazards of India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gartia, R.K.

    2008-01-01

    The Indian sub-continent is characterized by host of natural hazards like earthquake, tsunami, cyclones, floods, landslides/mudflows. It is necessary to build-up a database of historical/pre-historical natural hazards for planning scenarios for emergency response to various them. In short, there is a vast scope of providing chronology to hazardous events by using known techniques of dating including luminescence dating which has an excellent window span down from few hundred years to one hundred thousand years. In this work we report the dates of some historical/pre-historical natural hazards of India. In particular we focus on three kinds of natural hazards namely, earthquakes, tsunami, and mudflows. For example of earthquake we cover a historical earthquake of Manipur that created two massive fissures at Kumbi, 25 km from the state capital, Imphal. For pre-historical ones, we cover Assam-Shillong area known for its highest levels of seismicity in India. We demonstrate the evidence of a paleo-tsunami that devastated Mahabalipuram near Chennai. Incidentally, Mahabalipuram was badly affected by the great tsunami of 26th Dec 2004. Finally, luminescence dating technique has been applied to some historical/pre-historical mudflows of Manipur. A recent mudflow on 10th July 2004 damaged more than 90 houses, block National Highway-39, the life-line of Manipur for more than a fort-night. (author)

  1. The Political Ecology of Environmental and Sustainability Education Policy across Global-National Divides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahelin, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    This research is a qualitative case study of global and national (Brazilian) Environmental and Sustainability Education (ESE) policies in historical perspectives. My overall objectives are two-fold: First, to understand how global ESE policy frameworks have evolved ideologically over time--a concept I refer to as ESE policy trajectories; and…

  2. Assessment of historical leak model methodology as applied to the REDOX high-level waste tank SX-108

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JONES, T.E.

    1999-01-01

    Using the Historical Leak Model approach, the estimated leak rate (and therefore, projected leak volume) for Tank 241-SX-108 could not be reproduced using the data included in the initial document describing the leak methodology. An analysis of parameters impacting tank heat load calculations strongly suggest that the historical tank operating data lack the precision and accuracy required to estimate tank leak volumes using the Historical Leak Model methodology

  3. Vulnerability of historical masonry buildings under exceptional actions

    OpenAIRE

    Florio, Gilda

    2010-01-01

    The topic of this thesis is the vulnerability assessment of historical masonry buildings under exceptional actions. In order to develop the study, the structural performance of masonry aggregates and isolated monumental buildings under extreme loading condition have been investigated.

  4. History, Structure and Agency in Global Health Governance; Comment on “Global Health Governance Challenges 2016 – Are We Ready?”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Gill

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Ilona Kickbusch’s thought provoking editorial is criticized in this commentary, partly because she fails to refer to previous critical work on the global conditions and policies that sustain inequality, poverty, poor health and damage to the biosphere and, as a result, she misreads global power and elides consideration of the fundamental historical structures of political and material power that shape agency in global health governance. We also doubt that global health can be improved through structures and processes of multilateralism that are premised on the continued reproduction of the ecologically myopic and socially unsustainable market civilization model of capitalist development that currently prevails in the world economy. This model drives net financial flows from poor to rich countries and from the poor to the affluent and super wealthy individuals. By contrast, we suggest that significant progress in global health requires a profound and socially just restructuring of global power, greater global solidarity and the “development of sustainability.”

  5. Defining and Acting on Global Health: The Case of Japan and the Refugee Crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppold, Claire; Ozaki, Akihiko; Shimada, Yuki; Morita, Tomohiro; Tanimoto, Tetsuya

    2016-05-31

    What counts as global health? There has been limited discourse to date on the ways in which country-level contexts may shape positioning in global health agendas. By reviewing Japan's response to the refugee crisis, we demonstrate a clash between rhetoric and action on global responsibility, and suggest that cultural and historical factors may be related to the ways of perceiving and acting upon global health. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  6. Historicity and theology, and the quest for historical Jesus1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Geyser

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available The issue of history and historicity is reviewed in this article. The efforts of New Historicism is brought to bear on this question in an effort to find a way out of the impasse created by the modernist demand for objectivity and the postmodern resignation to radical relativism. The possibility of historiography is explored in conjunction with the pragmatic approach and leads to the conclusion that a kind of historical knowledge is attainable which can be described as useful even if not perfect. The author concurs with Crossan and his working definition of history as the past reconstructed interactively by the present through argued evidence in public discourse. The intersubjective nature of any historical enterprise leads the author to the conclusion that the search for the historical Jesus can only be done in the dialectical approach of a both ... and: both the historical Jesus and the kerygmatic Christ

  7. Beyond the global assessment of functioning: learning from Virginia Apgar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimsdale, Joel E; Jeste, Dilip V; Patterson, Thomas L

    2010-01-01

    The Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale is widely used in psychiatry, yet it has certain drawbacks. The authors seek to generate further discussion and research around developing an improved successor to the GAF. The authors used the Apgar scale as a template for constructing a possible successor to the GAF. Consulting with 16 colleagues, they selected 5 domains that were felt to be central to functioning in psychiatric patients. Psychiatrists in diverse clinical settings then completed both a GAF and a Psychiatric Apgar scale on 40 patients. The two scales were found to agree significantly. Use of the Psychiatric Apgar, however, provides clearer guidance about assessing functioning. The GAF was a brilliant addition to psychiatric practice. As we develop the next Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, it is pertinent to ask whether the GAF approach could be optimized even further by applying the lessons of Virginia Apgar.

  8. Seismic vulnerability assessment of an Italian historical masonry dry dock

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Zucca; Pietro Giuseppe Crespi; Nicola Longarini

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents the seismic vulnerability analysis of the military dry dock built in 1861 inside the Messina’s harbor. The study appears very important not only for the relevance of the dry dock itself, but also for its social, military and symbolic role. As a first step, the historical documentation about the dry dock delivered by the Military Technical Office, in charge of its maintenance, was thoroughly examined. This activity was fundamental to understand the construction methods, the ...

  9. Global and 3D spatial assessment of neuroinflammation in rodent models of Multiple Sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shashank Gupta

    Full Text Available Multiple Sclerosis (MS is a progressive autoimmune inflammatory and demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS. T cells play a key role in the progression of neuroinflammation in MS and also in the experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE animal models for the disease. A technology for quantitative and 3 dimensional (3D spatial assessment of inflammation in this and other CNS inflammatory conditions is much needed. Here we present a procedure for 3D spatial assessment and global quantification of the development of neuroinflammation based on Optical Projection Tomography (OPT. Applying this approach to the analysis of rodent models of MS, we provide global quantitative data of the major inflammatory component as a function of the clinical course. Our data demonstrates a strong correlation between the development and progression of neuroinflammation and clinical disease in several mouse and a rat model of MS refining the information regarding the spatial dynamics of the inflammatory component in EAE. This method provides a powerful tool to investigate the effect of environmental and genetic forces and for assessing the therapeutic effects of drug therapy in animal models of MS and other neuroinflammatory/neurodegenerative disorders.

  10. Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon? Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kummu, Matti; Varis, Olli; Ward, Philip J; De Moel, Hans

    2010-01-01

    In this letter we analyse the temporal development of physical population-driven water scarcity, i.e. water shortage, over the period 0 AD to 2005 AD. This was done using population data derived from the HYDE dataset, and water resource availability based on the WaterGAP model results for the period 1961-90. Changes in historical water resources availability were simulated with the STREAM model, forced by climate output data of the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE climate model. The water crowding index, i.e. Falkenmark water stress indicator, was used to identify water shortage in 284 sub-basins. Although our results show a few areas with moderate water shortage (1000-1700 m 3 /capita/yr) around the year 1800, water shortage began in earnest at around 1900, when 2% of the world population was under chronic water shortage ( 3 /capita/yr). By 1960, this percentage had risen to 9%. From then on, the number of people under water shortage increased rapidly to the year 2005, by which time 35% of the world population lived in areas with chronic water shortage. In this study, the effects of changes in population on water shortage are roughly four times more important than changes in water availability as a result of long-term climatic change. Global trends in adaptation measures to cope with reduced water resources per capita, such as irrigated area, reservoir storage, groundwater abstraction, and global trade of agricultural products, closely follow the recent increase in global water shortage.

  11. Statics of Historic Masonry Constructions

    CERN Document Server

    Como, Mario

    2013-01-01

    Masonry constructions are the great majority of the buildings in Europe’s historic centres and the most important monuments in its architectural heritage. Given the age of much of these constructions, the demand for safety assessments and restoration projects is pressing and constant. This book aims to help fill this demand presenting a comprehensive new statics of masonry constructions. The book, result of thirty years of research and professional experience, gives the fundamentals of statics of the masonry solid, then applied to the study of statics of arches, piers and vaults. Further, combining engineering and architecture and through an interdisciplinary approach, the book investigates the statical behaviour of many historic monuments, as the Pantheon, the Colosseum,  the domes of S. Maria del Fiore in Florence and of St. Peter in Rome, the Tower of Pisa, the Gothic Cathedrals and the Masonry Buildings under seismic actions.

  12. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  13. Future trends in global blindness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serge Resnikoff

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this review is to discuss the available data on the prevalence and causes of global blindness, and some of the associated trends and limitations seen. A literature search was conducted using the terms "global AND blindness" and "global AND vision AND impairment", resulting in seven appropriate articles for this review. Since 1990 the estimate of global prevalence of blindness has gradually decreased when considering the best corrected visual acuity definition: 0.71% in 1990, 0.59% in 2002, and 0.55% in 2010, corresponding to a 0.73% reduction per year over the 2002-2010 period. Significant limitations were found in the comparability between the global estimates in prevalence or causes of blindness or visual impairment. These limitations arise from various factors such as uncertainties about the true cause of the impairment, the use of different definitions and methods, and the absence of data from a number of geographical areas, leading to various extrapolation methods, which in turn seriously limit comparability. Seminal to this discussion on limitations in the comparability of studies and data, is that blindness has historically been defined using best corrected visual acuity.

  14. The use of historical data storage and retrieval systems at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langen, P.A.

    1984-01-01

    In order to assist the nuclear plant operator in the assessment of useful historical plant information, C-E has developed the Historical Data Storage and Retrieval (HDSR) system, which will record, store, recall, and display historical information as it is needed by plant personnel. The system has been designed to respond to the user's needs under a variety of situations. The user is offered the choice of viewing historical data on color video displays as groups or on computer printouts as logs. The graphical representation is based upon a sectoring concept that provides a zoom-in enlargement of sections of the HDSR graphs

  15. Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers – a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Pulido-Velazquez

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater–salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC and land use and land cover (LULC change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it, and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes and sea level rise (SLR. The proposed analysis is valuable for

  16. Micron R&D: Global Scope and Nano-Scale in N-Dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durcan, Mark

    2006-03-01

    The Globalization of world markets and the globally dispersed manufacturing that supports them, drives complexity in managing today's leading edge R&D organizations beyond that historically experienced. The dimensions involve not only location, but time, economics, government relations, complex supply and customer chains, and Intellectual Property strategy. Each must be contemplated and optimized in light of the nature of worldwide 24 hour a day competition.

  17. Statistical Review of Global LP Gas 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This review provides essential production and consumption data from 1991 through 2001. A detailed breakdown of supply and sector demand is given for the year 2001 and historic data on international trade, shipping and pricing is also shown. Statistics pertaining to auto-gas are also included in this edition of Statistical Review of Global LP Gas 2001. (author)

  18. Statistical review of global LP gas 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This review provides essential production and consumption data from 1990 through 2000. A more detailed breakdown of supply and sector demand is given for the year 2000 and historic data on international trade, shipping and pricing is also shown. Statistics pertaining to auto-gas are also included in this edition of Statistical Review of Global LP Gas 2001. (author)

  19. Archeomagnetic Intensity Spikes: Global or Regional Geomagnetic Field Features?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika Korte

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Variations of the geomagnetic field prior to direct observations are inferred from archeo- and paleomagnetic experiments. Seemingly unusual variations not seen in the present-day and historical field are of particular interest to constrain the full range of core dynamics. Recently, archeomagnetic intensity spikes, characterized by very high field values that appear to be associated with rapid secular variation rates, have been reported from several parts of the world. They were first noted in data from the Levant at around 900 BCE. A recent re-assessment of previous and new Levantine data, involving a rigorous quality assessment, interprets the observations as an extreme local geomagnetic high with at least two intensity spikes between the 11th and 8th centuries BCE. Subsequent reports of similar features from Asia, the Canary Islands and Texas raise the question of whether such features might be common occurrences, or whether they might even be part of a global magnetic field feature. Here we use spherical harmonic modeling to test two hypotheses: firstly, whether the Levantine and other potential spikes might be associated with higher dipole field intensity than shown by existing global field models around 1,000 BCE, and secondly, whether the observations from different parts of the world are compatible with a westward drifting intense flux patch. Our results suggest that the spikes originate from intense flux patches growing and decaying mostly in situ, combined with stronger and more variable dipole moment than shown by previous global field models. Axial dipole variations no more than 60% higher than observed in the present field, probably within the range of normal geodynamo behavior, seem sufficient to explain the observations.

  20. Objective structured assessment of nontechnical skills: Reliability of a global rating scale for the in-training assessment in the operating room.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedy, Nicolas J; Szasz, Peter; Louridas, Marisa; Bonrath, Esther M; Husslein, Heinrich; Grantcharov, Teodor P

    2015-06-01

    Nontechnical skills are critical for patient safety in the operating room (OR). As a result, regulatory bodies for accreditation and certification have mandated the integration of these competencies into postgraduate education. A generally accepted approach to the in-training assessment of nontechnical skills, however, is lacking. The goal of the present study was to develop an evidence-based and reliable tool for the in-training assessment of residents' nontechnical performance in the OR. The Objective Structured Assessment of Nontechnical Skills tool was designed as a 5-point global rating scale with descriptive anchors for each item, based on existing evidence-based frameworks of nontechnical skills, as well as resident training requirements. The tool was piloted on scripted videos and refined in an iterative process. The final version was used to rate residents' performance in recorded OR crisis simulations and during live observations in the OR. A total of 37 simulations and 10 live procedures were rated. Interrater agreement was good for total mean scores, both in simulation and in the real OR, with intraclass correlation coefficients >0.90 in all settings for average and single measures. Internal consistency of the scale was high (Cronbach's alpha = 0.80). The Objective Structured Assessment of Nontechnical Skills global rating scale was developed as an evidence-based tool for the in-training assessment of residents' nontechnical performance in the OR. Unique descriptive anchors allow for a criterion-referenced assessment of performance. Good reliability was demonstrated in different settings, supporting applications in research and education. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.