Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

2011-01-01

Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit

Cumulative risk assessment of phthalate exposure of Danish children and adolescents using the hazard index approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søeborg, T; Frederiksen, H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

2012-01-01

Human risk assessment of chemicals is traditionally presented as the ratio between the actual level of exposure and an acceptable level of exposure, with the acceptable level of exposure most often being estimated by appropriate authorities. This approach is generally sound when assessing the risk...... of individual chemicals. However, several chemicals may concurrently target the same receptor, work through the same mechanism or in other ways induce the same effect(s) in the body. In these cases, cumulative risk assessment should be applied. The present study uses biomonitoring data from 129 Danish children...... and adolescents and resulting estimated daily intakes of four different phthalates. These daily intake estimates are used for a cumulative risk assessment with anti-androgenic effects as the endpoint using Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values determined by the European Food Safety Authorities (EFSA) or Reference...

Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

Dietary cumulative acute risk assessment of organophosphorus, carbamates and pyrethroids insecticides for the Brazilian population.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jardim, Andreia Nunes Oliveira; Brito, Alessandra Page; van Donkersgoed, Gerda; Boon, Polly E; Caldas, Eloisa Dutra

Cumulative acute dietary risk assessments of organophosphorus (OPs), carbamates (CBs) and pyrethroids (PYs) were conducted for the Brazilian population. Residue data for 30786 samples of 30 foods were obtained from two national monitoring programs and one University laboratory, and consumption data

Cumulative Mass and NIOSH Variable Lifting Index Method for Risk Assessment: Possible Relations.

Science.gov (United States)

Stucchi, Giulia; Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Galinotti, Luca; Iodice, Simona; Favero, Chiara

2018-02-01

Objective The aim of this study was to explore whether the Variable Lifting Index (VLI) can be corrected for cumulative mass and thus test its efficacy in predicting the risk of low-back pain (LBP). Background A validation study of the VLI method was published in this journal reporting promising results. Although several studies highlighted a positive correlation between cumulative load and LBP, cumulative mass has never been considered in any of the studies investigating the relationship between manual material handling and LBP. Method Both VLI and cumulative mass were calculated for 2,374 exposed subjects using a systematic approach. Due to high variability of cumulative mass values, a stratification within VLI categories was employed. Dummy variables (1-4) were assigned to each class and used as a multiplier factor for the VLI, resulting in a new index (VLI_CMM). Data on LBP were collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of acute LBP within levels of risk exposure when compared with a control group formed by 1,028 unexposed subjects. Results Data showed greatly variable values of cumulative mass across all VLI classes. The potential effect of cumulative mass on damage emerged as not significant ( p value = .6526). Conclusion When comparing VLI_CMM with raw VLI, the former failed to prove itself as a better predictor of LBP risk. Application To recognize cumulative mass as a modifier, especially for lumbar degenerative spine diseases, authors of future studies should investigate potential association between the VLI and other damage variables.

A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century.

Science.gov (United States)

Moretto, Angelo; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Solomon, Keith R; Pastoor, Timothy P; Wilks, Martin F; Embry, Michelle R

2017-02-01

The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health.

Strategy for an assessment of cumulative ecological impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, P.; Collins, J.; Nelsen, J.

1995-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a strategy to conduct an assessment of the cumulative ecological impact of operations at the 300-square-mile Savannah River Site. This facility has over 400 identified waste units and contains several large watersheds. In addition to individual waste units, residual contamination must be evaluated in terms of its contribution to ecological risks at zonal and site-wide levels. DOE must be able to generate sufficient information to facilitate cleanup in the immediate future within the context of a site-wide ecological risk assessment that may not be completed for many years. The strategy superimposes a more global perspective on ecological assessments of individual waste units and provides strategic underpinnings for conducting individual screening-level and baseline risk assessments at the operable unit and zonal or watershed levels. It identifies ecological endpoints and risk assessment tools appropriate for each level of the risk assessment. In addition, it provides a clear mechanism for identifying clean sites through screening-level risk assessments and for elevating sites with residual contamination to the next level of assessment. Whereas screening-level and operable unit-level risk assessments relate directly to cleanup, zonal and site-wide assessments verity or confirm the overall effectiveness of remediation. The latter assessments must show, for example, whether multiple small areas with residual pesticide contamination that have minimal individual impact would pose a cumulative risk from bioaccumulation because they are within the habitat range of an ecological receptor

Optimization of the cumulative risk assessment of pesticides and biocides using computational techniques: Pilot project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

This pilot project is intended as the first step in developing a computational strategy to assist in refining methods for higher tier cumulative and aggregate risk assessment of exposure to mixture of pesticides and biocides. For this purpose, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models were...

Childhood Cumulative Risk and Later Allostatic Load

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Doan, Stacey N; Dich, Nadya; Evans, Gary W

2014-01-01

State, followed for 8 years (between the ages 9 and 17). Poverty- related stress was computed using the cumulative risk approach, assessing stressors across 9 domains, including environmental, psychosocial, and demographic factors. Allostatic load captured a range of physiological responses, including......Objective: The present study investigated the long-term impact of exposure to poverty-related stressors during childhood on allostatic load, an index of physiological dysregulation, and the potential mediating role of substance use. Method: Participants (n = 162) were rural children from New York...... cardiovascular, hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis, sympathetic adrenal medullary system, and metabolic activity. Smoking and alcohol/drug use were tested as mediators of the hypothesized childhood risk-adolescent allostatic load relationship. Results: Cumulative risk exposure at age 9 predicted increases...

EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

Science.gov (United States)

Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

Cumulative risk assessment for plasticizer-contaminated food using the hazard index approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, J.W.; Yan, B.R.; Chang, M.H.; Tseng, S.H.; Kao, Y.M.; Chen, J.C.; Lee, C.C.

2014-01-01

Phthalates strongly and adversely affect reproduction, development and liver function. We did a cumulative risk assessment for simultaneous exposure to nine phthalates using the hazard index (HI) and the levels of nine phthalates in 1200 foodstuff samples. DEHP (di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate) present the highest level (mean: 0.443 mg/kg) in 1200 samples, and the highest average daily dose (ADD) was found in DEHP, ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) posed the highest risk potential of all the phthalates. In seven phthalates, the 95th percentiles of the ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) in 0–6-yr-old children accounted for 91% (79–107%) of the tolerable daily intake, and the 95th percentiles of the HIs for the anti-androgenic effects of five phthalates in 0–3-yr-old children and 4–6-yr-old girls were >1. We conclude that the health of younger Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of phthalate-contaminated foods. - Graphical abstract: In seven phthalates, the 95th percentile of the average daily dose (ADD) for ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) in 0–3-yr-old male (0–3 M) and female (0–3 F) children accounted for 97% and 84% of TDIs, respectively. For 4–6-yr-old and 7–12-yr-old males and 7–12-yr-old females, ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) accounted for 79%, 72%, and 65% of TDIs, respectively. - Highlights: • A cumulative risk assessment of PAEs was used in a severe plasticizer-contaminated food episode. • ΣDBP (i + n) posed the highest risk potential of all the dietary phthalates. • Females 4–6 yr old had the highest risk for anti-androgenic effects. • Beverages, milk and dairy products were the major contributors to average daily dose of phthalate esters. - The health of young Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of plasticizer-contaminated food

Assessing stress-related treatment needs among girls at risk for poor functional outcomes: The impact of cumulative adversity, criterion traumas, and non-criterion events.

Science.gov (United States)

Lansing, Amy E; Plante, Wendy Y; Beck, Audrey N

2017-05-01

Despite growing recognition that cumulative adversity (total stressor exposure, including complex trauma), increases the risk for psychopathology and impacts development, assessment strategies lag behind: Adversity-related mental health needs (symptoms, functional impairment, maladaptive coping) are typically assessed in response to only one qualifying Criterion-A traumatic event. This is especially problematic for youth at-risk for health and academic disparities who experience cumulative adversity, including non-qualifying events (separation from caregivers) which may produce more impairing symptomatology. Data from 118 delinquent girls demonstrate: (1) an average of 14 adverse Criterion-A and non-Criterion event exposures; (2) serious maladaptive coping strategies (self-injury) directly in response to cumulative adversity; (3) more cumulative adversity-related than worst-event related symptomatology and functional impairment; and (4) comparable symptomatology, but greater functional impairment, in response to non-Criterion events. These data support the evaluation of mental health needs in response to cumulative adversity for optimal identification and tailoring of services in high-risk populations to reduce disparities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Interactions with Computational Models in Supporting Cumulative Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Yu-Mei; Clewell, Harvey; Campbell, Jerry; Andersen, Melvin

2011-01-01

Simultaneous or sequential exposure to multiple chemicals may cause interactions in the pharmacokinetics (PK) and/or pharmacodynamics (PD) of the individual chemicals. Such interactions can cause modification of the internal or target dose/response of one chemical in the mixture by other chemical(s), resulting in a change in the toxicity from that predicted from the summation of the effects of the single chemicals using dose additivity. In such cases, conducting quantitative cumulative risk assessment for chemicals present as a mixture is difficult. The uncertainties that arise from PK interactions can be addressed by developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to describe the disposition of chemical mixtures. Further, PK models can be developed to describe mechanisms of action and tissue responses. In this article, PBPK/PD modeling efforts conducted to investigate chemical interactions at the PK and PD levels are reviewed to demonstrate the use of this predictive modeling framework in assessing health risks associated with exposures to complex chemical mixtures. PMID:21655141

Oral contraceptive use and impact of cumulative intake of estrogen and progestin on risk of ovarian cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faber, M T; Jensen, A; Frederiksen, K

2013-01-01

Oral contraceptive use decreases the risk of ovarian cancer, but no previous studies have assessed the impact of cumulative intake of estrogen and progestin on ovarian cancer risk.......Oral contraceptive use decreases the risk of ovarian cancer, but no previous studies have assessed the impact of cumulative intake of estrogen and progestin on ovarian cancer risk....

Family Resources and Effects on Child Behavior Problem Interventions: A Cumulative Risk Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Tømmerås, Truls; Kjøbli, John

2017-01-01

Family resources have been associated with health care inequality in general and with social gradients in treatment outcomes for children with behavior problems. However, there is limited evidence concerning cumulative risk-the accumulation of social and economic disadvantages in a family-and whether cumulative risk moderates the outcomes of evidence-based parent training interventions. We used data from two randomized controlled trials evaluating high-intensity ( n  = 137) and low-intensity ( n  = 216) versions of Parent Management Training-Oregon (PMTO) with a 50:50 allocation between participants receiving PMTO interventions or regular care. A nine-item family cumulative risk index tapping socioeconomic resources and parental health was constructed to assess the family's exposure to risk. Autoregressive structured equation models (SEM) were run to investigate whether cumulative risk moderated child behaviors at post-treatment and follow-up (6 months). Our results showed opposite social gradients for the treatment conditions: the children exposed to cumulative risk in a pooled sample of both PMTO groups displayed lower levels of behavior problems, whereas children with identical risk exposures who received regular care experienced more problems. Furthermore, our results indicated that the social gradients differed between PMTO interventions: children exposed to cumulative risk in the low-intensity (five sessions) Brief Parent Training fared equally well as their high-resource counterparts, whereas children exposed to cumulative risk in the high-intensity PMTO (12 sessions) experienced vastly better treatment effects. Providing evidence-based parent training seem to be an effective way to counteract health care inequality, and the more intensive PMTO treatment seemed to be a particularly effective way to help families with cumulative risk.

Family cumulative risk and at-risk kindergarteners' social competence: the mediating role of parent representations of the attachment relationship.

Science.gov (United States)

Sparks, Lauren A; Trentacosta, Christopher J; Owusu, Erika; McLear, Caitlin; Smith-Darden, Joanne

2018-08-01

Secure attachment relationships have been linked to social competence in at-risk children. In the current study, we examined the role of parent secure base scripts in predicting at-risk kindergarteners' social competence. Parent representations of secure attachment were hypothesized to mediate the relationship between lower family cumulative risk and children's social competence. Participants included 106 kindergarteners and their primary caregivers recruited from three urban charter schools serving low-income families as a part of a longitudinal study. Lower levels of cumulative risk predicted greater secure attachment representations in parents, and scores on the secure base script assessment predicted children's social competence. An indirect relationship between lower cumulative risk and kindergarteners' social competence via parent secure base script scores was also supported. Parent script-based representations of the attachment relationship appear to be an important link between lower levels of cumulative risk and low-income kindergarteners' social competence. Implications of these findings for future interventions are discussed.

Childhood cumulative risk and obesity: the mediating role of self-regulatory ability.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Gary W; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E; Doan, Stacey N

2012-01-01

We tested whether early childhood risk exposures are related to weight gain in adolescence and evaluate an underlying mechanism, self-regulatory behavior, for the risk-obesity link. Cumulative risk exposure to 9 sociodemographic (eg, poverty), physical (eg, substandard housing), and psychosocial (eg, family turmoil) stressors was assessed in 244 nine-year-old children. BMI was calculated at age 9 and then 4 years later. At age 9, children's ability to delay gratification as an index of self-regulatory behavior was assessed. Path analyses were then estimated to evaluate our mediational model (Cumulative risk → Self-regulation → BMI) over a 4-year period in a prospective, longitudinal design. Nine-year-old children exposed to a greater accumulation of multiple risk factors show larger gains in adiposity over the next four year period, net of their initial BMI. These gains in BMI during early adolescence are largely accounted for by deteriorated self-regulatory abilities among children facing more cumulative risks. Early childhood risk exposure leads to larger gains in BMI in adolescence. Given the importance of childhood adiposity to the development of obesity later in life, understanding the underlying mechanisms that link early experience to weight gain is an essential task. Deficiencies in self-regulation in response to chronic stress appears to be an important agent in the obesity epidemic.

Childhood Psychosocial Cumulative Risks and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

Science.gov (United States)

Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Kubzansky, Laura D.; Jokela, Markus; Hintsanen, Mirka; Juonala, Markus; Kivimäki, Mika; Josefsson, Kim; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli T

2015-01-01

Objective Adverse experiences in childhood may influence cardiovascular risk in adulthood. We examined the prospective associations between types of psychosocial adversity as well as having multiple adversities (e.g., cumulative risk) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and its progression among young adults. Higher cumulative risk score in childhood was expected to be associated with higher IMT and its progression. Methods Participants were 2265 men and women (age range: 24-39 years in 2001) from the on-going Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study whose carotid IMT were measured in 2001 and 2007. A cumulative psychosocial risk score, assessed at the study baseline in 1980, was derived from four separate aspects of the childhood environment that may impose risk (childhood stressful life-events, parental health behavior family, socioeconomic status, and childhood emotional environment). Results The cumulative risk score was associated with higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.001; padulthood, including adulthood health behavior, adulthood socioeconomic status and depressive symptoms. Among the individual childhood psychosocial risk categories, having more stressful life-events was associated with higher IMT in 2001 (b=.007; se=.003; p=.016) and poorer parental health behavior predicted higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.002; p=.031) after adjustment for age, sex and childhood cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Early life psychosocial environment influences cardiovascular risk later in life and considering cumulative childhood risk factors may be more informative than individual factors in predicting progression of preclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood. PMID:26809108

Consideration of the FQPA Safety Factor and Other Uncertainty Factors in Cumulative Risk Assessment of Chemicals Sharing a Common Mechanism of Toxicity

Science.gov (United States)

This guidance document provides OPP's current thinking on application of the provision in FFDCA about an additional safety factor for the protection of infants and children in the context of cumulative risk assessments.

Improving cumulative effects assessment in Alberta: Regional strategic assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Dallas; Lalonde, Kim; McEachern, Menzie; Kenney, John; Mendoza, Gustavo; Buffin, Andrew; Rich, Kate

2011-01-01

The Government of Alberta, Canada is developing a regulatory framework to better manage cumulative environmental effects from development in the province. A key component of this effort is regional planning, which will lay the primary foundation for cumulative effects management into the future. Alberta Environment has considered the information needs of regional planning and has concluded that Regional Strategic Assessment may offer significant advantages if integrated into the planning process, including the overall improvement of cumulative environmental effects assessment in the province.

Cumulative keyboard strokes: a possible risk factor for carpal tunnel syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eleftheriou Andreas

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Contradictory reports have been published regarding the association of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (CTS and the use of computer keyboard. Previous studies did not take into account the cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes among computer workers. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between cumulative keyboard use (keyboard strokes and CTS. Methods Employees (461 from a Governmental data entry & processing unit agreed to participate (response rate: 84.1 % in a cross-sectional study. Α questionnaire was distributed to the participants to obtain information on socio-demographics and risk factors for CTS. The participants were examined for signs and symptoms related to CTS and were asked if they had previous history or surgery for CTS. The cumulative amount of the keyboard strokes per worker per year was calculated by the use of payroll’s registry. Two case definitions for CTS were used. The first included subjects with personal history/surgery for CTS while the second included subjects that belonged to the first case definition plus those participants were identified through clinical examination. Results Multivariate analysis used for both case definitions, indicated that those employees with high cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes were at increased risk of CTS (case definition A: OR = 2.23;95 % CI = 1.09-4.52 and case definition B: OR = 2.41; 95%CI = 1.36-4.25. A dose response pattern between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and CTS has been revealed (p  Conclusions The present study indicated a possible association between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and development of CTS. Cumulative exposure to key-board strokes would be taken into account as an exposure indicator regarding exposure assessment of computer workers. Further research is needed in order to test the results of the current study and assess causality between cumulative keyboard strokes and

Cumulative effects of wind turbines. A guide to assessing the cumulative effects of wind energy development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-07-01

This guidance provides advice on how to assess the cumulative effects of wind energy developments in an area and is aimed at developers, planners, and stakeholders interested in the development of wind energy in the UK. The principles of cumulative assessment, wind energy development in the UK, cumulative assessment of wind energy development, and best practice conclusions are discussed. The identification and assessment of the cumulative effects is examined in terms of global environmental sustainability, local environmental quality and socio-economic activity. Supplementary guidance for assessing the principle cumulative effects on the landscape, on birds, and on the visual effect is provided. The consensus building approach behind the preparation of this guidance is outlined in the annexes of the report.

Community Engaged Cumulative Risk Assessment of Exposure to Inorganic Well Water Contaminants, Crow Reservation, Montana

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, John T.; Lefthand, Myra J.; Young, Sara L.; Kindness, Larry; Other Medicine, Roberta; Ford, Timothy E.; Dietrich, Eric; Parker, Albert E.; Hoover, Joseph H.; Camper, Anne K.

2018-01-01

An estimated 11 million people in the US have home wells with unsafe levels of hazardous metals and nitrate. The national scope of the health risk from consuming this water has not been assessed as home wells are largely unregulated and data on well water treatment and consumption are lacking. Here, we assessed health risks from consumption of contaminated well water on the Crow Reservation by conducting a community-engaged, cumulative risk assessment. Well water testing, surveys and interviews were used to collect data on contaminant concentrations, water treatment methods, well water consumption, and well and septic system protection and maintenance practices. Additive Hazard Index calculations show that the water in more than 39% of wells is unsafe due to uranium, manganese, nitrate, zinc and/or arsenic. Most families’ financial resources are limited, and 95% of participants do not employ water treatment technologies. Despite widespread high total dissolved solids, poor taste and odor, 80% of families consume their well water. Lack of environmental health literacy about well water safety, pre-existing health conditions and limited environmental enforcement also contribute to vulnerability. Ensuring access to safe drinking water and providing accompanying education are urgent public health priorities for Crow and other rural US families with low environmental health literacy and limited financial resources. PMID:29304032

Cumulative Human Impacts on Coral Reefs: Assessing Risk and Management Implications for Brazilian Coral Reefs

OpenAIRE

Rafael A. Magris; Alana Grech; Robert L. Pressey

2018-01-01

Effective management of coral reefs requires strategies tailored to cope with cumulative disturbances from human activities. In Brazil, where coral reefs are a priority for conservation, intensifying threats from local and global stressors are of paramount concern to management agencies. Using a cumulative impact assessment approach, our goal was to inform management actions for coral reefs in Brazil by assessing their exposure to multiple stressors (fishing, land-based activities, coastal de...

Cumulative effects assessment: Does scale matter?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Therivel, Riki; Ross, Bill

2007-01-01

Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is (or should be) an integral part of environmental assessment at both the project and the more strategic level. CEA helps to link the different scales of environmental assessment in that it focuses on how a given receptor is affected by the totality of plans, projects and activities, rather than on the effects of a particular plan or project. This article reviews how CEAs consider, and could consider, scale issues: spatial extent, level of detail, and temporal issues. It is based on an analysis of Canadian project-level CEAs and UK strategic-level CEAs. Based on a review of literature and, especially, case studies with which the authors are familiar, it concludes that scale issues are poorly considered at both levels, with particular problems being unclear or non-existing cumulative effects scoping methodologies; poor consideration of past or likely future human activities beyond the plan or project in question; attempts to apportion 'blame' for cumulative effects; and, at the plan level, limited management of cumulative effects caused particularly by the absence of consent regimes. Scale issues are important in most of these problems. However both strategic-level and project-level CEA have much potential for managing cumulative effects through better siting and phasing of development, demand reduction and other behavioural changes, and particularly through setting development consent rules for projects. The lack of strategic resource-based thresholds constrains the robust management of strategic-level cumulative effects

Ecosystem assessment methods for cumulative effects at the regional scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunsaker, C.T.

1989-01-01

Environmental issues such as nonpoint-source pollution, acid rain, reduced biodiversity, land use change, and climate change have widespread ecological impacts and require an integrated assessment approach. Since 1978, the implementing regulations for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have required assessment of potential cumulative environmental impacts. Current environmental issues have encouraged ecologists to improve their understanding of ecosystem process and function at several spatial scales. However, management activities usually occur at the local scale, and there is little consideration of the potential impacts to the environmental quality of a region. This paper proposes that regional ecological risk assessment provides a useful approach for assisting scientists in accomplishing the task of assessing cumulative impacts. Critical issues such as spatial heterogeneity, boundary definition, and data aggregation are discussed. Examples from an assessment of acidic deposition effects on fish in Adirondack lakes illustrate the importance of integrated data bases, associated modeling efforts, and boundary definition at the regional scale

A case study to illustrate the utility of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks for integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which evaluate the risk of multiple adverse outcomes (AOs) from multiple chemicals, promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to integrate risk from relevant stressors. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework can inform these r...

An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

Science.gov (United States)

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

Mapping cumulative environmental risks: examples from the EU NoMiracle project

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pistocchi, A.; Groenwold, J.; Lahr, J.; Loos, M.; Mujica, M.; Ragas, A.M.J.; Rallo, R.; Sala, S.; Schlink, U.; Strebel, K.; Vighi, M.; Vizcaino, P.

2011-01-01

We present examples of cumulative chemical risk mapping methods developed within the NoMiracle project. The different examples illustrate the application of the concentration addition (CA) approach to pesticides at different scale, the integration in space of cumulative risks to individual organisms

An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

Science.gov (United States)

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

An exposure-based framework for grouping pollutants for a cumulative risk assessment approach: case study of indoor semi-volatile organic compounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Fournier, Kevin; Glorennec, Philippe; Bonvallot, Nathalie

2014-04-01

Humans are exposed to a large number of contaminants, many of which may have similar health effects. This paper presents a framework for identifying pollutants to be included in a cumulative risk assessment approach. To account for the possibility of simultaneous exposure to chemicals with common toxic modes of action, the first step of the traditional risk assessment process, i.e. hazard identification, is structured in three sub-steps: (1a) Identification of pollutants people are exposed to, (1b) identification of effects and mechanisms of action of these pollutants, (1c) grouping of pollutants according to similarity of their mechanism of action and health effects. Based on this exposure-based grouping we can derive "multi-pollutant" toxicity reference values, in the "dose-response assessment" step. The approach proposed in this work is original in that it is based on real exposures instead of a limited number of pollutants from a unique chemical family, as traditionally performed. This framework is illustrated by the case study of semi-volatile organic compounds in French dwellings, providing insights into practical considerations regarding the accuracy of the available toxicological information. This case study illustrates the value of the exposure-based approach as opposed to the traditional cumulative framework, in which chemicals with similar health effects were not always included in the same chemical class. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foley, Melissa M., E-mail: mfoley@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, 400 Natural Bridges, Dr., Santa Cruz, CA 95060 (United States); Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Mease, Lindley A., E-mail: lamease@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Martone, Rebecca G., E-mail: rmartone@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Prahler, Erin E. [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Morrison, Tiffany H., E-mail: tiffany.morrison@jcu.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811 (Australia); Murray, Cathryn Clarke, E-mail: cmurray@pices.int [WWF-Canada, 409 Granville Street, Suite 1588, Vancouver, BC V6C 1T2 (Canada); Wojcik, Deborah, E-mail: deb.wojcik@duke.edu [Nicholas School for the Environment, Duke University, 9 Circuit Dr., Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

2017-01-15

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Prahler, Erin E.; Morrison, Tiffany H.; Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Wojcik, Deborah

2017-01-01

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A; Martone, Rebecca G; Prahler, Erin E; Morrison, Tiffany H; Clarke Murray, Cathryn; Wojcik, Deborah

2016-01-01

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

Single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of mycotoxins present in breakfast cereals consumed by children from Lisbon region, Portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

Assunção, Ricardo; Vasco, Elsa; Nunes, Baltazar; Loureiro, Susana; Martins, Carla; Alvito, Paula

2015-12-01

Humans can be exposed to multiple chemicals, but current risk assessment is usually carried out on one chemical at a time. Mycotoxins are commonly found in a variety of foods including those intended to consumption by children namely breakfast cereals. The present study aims to perform, the risk assessment of single and multiple mycotoxins present in breakfast cereals consumed by children (1-3 years old) from Lisbon region, Portugal. Daily exposure of children to ochratoxin A, fumonisins and trichothecenes showed no health risks to the children population considering individual mycotoxins, while exposure to aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) suggested a potential health concern for the high percentiles of intake (P90, P95 and P99). The combined exposure to fumonisins and trichothecenes are not expected to be of health concern. The combined margin of exposure (MoET) for the aflatoxins group could constitute a potential health concern and AFB1 was the main contributor for MoET. Legal limits and control strategies regarding the presence of multiple mycotoxins in foodstuffs is an urgent need. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a cumulative risk assessment was performed on multiple mycotoxins present in breakfast cereals consumed by children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sovereign default risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

2013-01-01

We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

APPROACHES FOR INCORPORATING NON-CHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

Science.gov (United States)

Over the past twenty years, the risk assessment paradigm has gradually shifted from an individual chemical approach to a community-based model. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is consideration of the totality of stressors affecting a defined population including both ...

Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

2016-08-01

Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of physical activity on cumulative cardiovascular disease risk factors among Malaysian adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasiah, Rajah; Thangiah, Govindamal; Yusoff, Khalid; Manikam, Rishya; Chandrasekaran, Sankara Kumar; Mustafa, Rujhan; Bakar, Najmin Binti Abu

2015-12-16

Numerous studies have shown the importance of physical activity in reducing the morbidity and mortality rates caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, most of these studies emphasise little on the cumulative effect of CVD risk factors. Hence, this study investigates the association between physical exercise and cumulative CVD risk factors among adults in three different age groups. Using a sample of 7276 respondents drawn from community centers, the REDISCOVER team gathered information on physical activity, CVD risk factors (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, tobacco use) and socioeconomic and demographic variables in Malaysia. Because the study required medical examination, a convenience sampling frame was preferred in which all volunteers were included in the study. Fasting blood samples and anthropometric (height, weight and more) measurements were collected by trained staffs. Socio-demographic and physical activity variables were recorded through questionnaires. A Chi-square test was performed to identify the bivariate association between the covariates (socioeconomic variables, demographic variables and physical activity) and outcome variable. The association between the main exposure, physical activity, and the outcome variable, cumulative CVD risk factors, was assessed using an ordinal logistic regression model, controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic influences in three different age groups, 35-49, 50-64 and 65 and above. The mean age of participants is 51.8 (SD = 9.4). Respondents in the age groups of 35-49 (aORmoderate = 0.12; 95 % CI: 0.02 - 0.53 ) and 65 and above (aORhigh = 0.58; 95 % CI: 0.24, 0.78) showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between physical activity and cumulative CVD risk factors. However, this relationship was not significant among respondents in the 50-64 age group suggesting the possible influence of other variables, such as stress and environment. The

Cumulative Risk of Bovine Mastitis Treatments in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden

OpenAIRE

Valde, JP; Lawson, LG; Lindberg, A; Agger, JF; Saloniemi, H; Østerås, O

2004-01-01

Data from the national dairy cow recording systems during 1997 were used to calculate lactation-specific cumulative risk of mastitis treatments and cumulative risk of removal from the herds in Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. Sweden had the lowest risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation and Norway had the highest risk. The incidence risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden was 0.177, 0.139, 0.215 and...

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Cumulative Risks of Foster Care Placement for Danish Children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

2014-01-01

children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children...

Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2017-11-01

To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Children neglected: Where cumulative risk theory fails.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Hara, Mandy; Legano, Lori; Homel, Peter; Walker-Descartes, Ingrid; Rojas, Mary; Laraque, Danielle

2015-07-01

Neglected children, by far the majority of children maltreated, experience an environment most deficient in cognitive stimulation and language exchange. When physical abuse co-occurs with neglect, there is more stimulation through negative parent-child interaction, which may lead to better cognitive outcomes, contrary to Cumulative Risk Theory. The purpose of the current study was to assess whether children only neglected perform worse on cognitive tasks than children neglected and physically abused. Utilizing LONGSCAN archived data, 271 children only neglected and 101 children neglected and physically abused in the first four years of life were compared. The two groups were assessed at age 6 on the WPPSI-R vocabulary and block design subtests, correlates of cognitive intelligence. Regression analyses were performed, controlling for additional predictors of poor cognitive outcome, including socioeconomic variables and caregiver depression. Children only neglected scored significantly worse than children neglected and abused on the WPPSI-R vocabulary subtest (p=0.03). The groups did not differ on the block design subtest (p=0.4). This study shows that for neglected children, additional abuse may not additively accumulate risk when considering intelligence outcomes. Children experiencing only neglect may need to be referred for services that address cognitive development, with emphasis on the linguistic environment, in order to best support the developmental challenges of neglected children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experience of cumulative effects assessment in the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piper Jake

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Cumulative effects assessment (CEA is a development of environmental impact assessment which attempts to take into account the wider picture of what impacts may affect the environment as a result of either multiple or linear projects, or development plans. CEA is seen as a further valuable tool in promoting sustainable development. The broader canvas upon which the assessment is made leads to a suite of issues such as complexity in methods and assessment of significance, the desirability of co-operation between developers and other parties, new ways of addressing mitigation and monitoring. After outlining the legislative position and the process of CEA, this paper looks at three cases studies in the UK where cumulative assessment has been carried out - the cases concern wind farms, major infrastructure and off-shore developments.

The Contribution of Project Environmental Assessment to Assessing and Managing Cumulative Effects: Individually and Collectively Insignificant?

Science.gov (United States)

Noble, Bram; Liu, Jialang; Hackett, Paul

2017-04-01

This paper explores the opportunities and constraints to project-based environmental assessment as a means to support the assessment and management of cumulative environmental effects. A case study of the hydroelectric sector is used to determine whether sufficient information is available over time through project-by-project assessments to support an adequate understanding of cumulative change. Results show inconsistency from one project to the next in terms of the components and indicators assessed, limited transfer of baseline information between project assessments over time, and the same issues and concerns being raised by review panels-even though the projects reviewed are operating in the same watershed and operated by the same proponent. Project environmental assessments must be managed, and coordinated, as part of a larger system of impact assessment, if project-by-project assessments are to provide a meaningful forum for learning and understanding cumulative change. The paper concludes with recommendations for improved project-based assessment practice in support of cumulative effects assessment and management.

Elaboration of a concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gross, Rita; Bunke, Dirk; Moch, Katja [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie e.V., Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Gartiser, Stefan [Hydrotox GmbH, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

2011-12-15

Article 10(1) of the EU Biocidal Products Directive 98/8/EC (BPD) requires that for the inclusion of an active substance in Annex I, Annex IA or IB, cumulation effects from the use of biocidal products containing the same active substance shall be taken into account, where relevant. The study proves the feasibility of a technical realisation of Article 10(1) of the BPD and elaborates a first concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides. Existing requirements concerning cumulative assessments in other regulatory frameworks have been evaluated and their applicability for biocides has been examined. Technical terms and definitions used in this context were documented with the aim to harmonise terminology with other frameworks and to set up a precise definition within the BPD. Furthermore, application conditions of biocidal products have been analysed to find out for which cumulative exposure assessments may be relevant. Different parameters were identified which might serve as indicators for the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments. These indicators were then integrated in a flow chart by means of which the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments can be checked. Finally, proposals for the technical performance of cumulative exposure assessments within the Review Programme have been elaborated with the aim to bring the results of the project into the upcoming development and harmonization processes on EU level. (orig.)

A Case Study Application of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) and Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) Frameworks to Facilitate the Integration of Human Health and Ecological End Points for Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA)

Science.gov (United States)

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from multiple stressors. While CSMs may encompass multiple species, evaluating end points across taxa can be challenging due to data availability an...

Cumulative Impact Assessment: Approaching Environmental Capacity in Development Area Using Environmental Impact Assessment Information

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, N.; Lee, M. J.; Maeng, J. H.

2017-12-01

Environmental impact assessment estimates the impact of development as a business unit and establishes mitigation plan. If the development is done, its economic effects can spread to the nearby areas. So that various developments can be distributed at different time intervals. The impact of the new developments can be combined with existing environmental impacts and can have a larger impact. That is, Cumulative impact assessment is needed to consider the environmental capacity of the Nearby area. Cumulative impact assessments require policy tools such as environmental impact assessment information and cumulative impact estimation models. In Korea, environmental information (water quality, air quality, etc.) of the development site is measured for environmental impact assessment and monitored for a certain period (generally 5 years) after the project. In addition, by constructing the environmental information as a spatial database, it is possible to express the environmental impact on a regional basis spatially and to intuitively use it for development site selection. Utilizing a composite model of environmental impact assessment information and Remote Sensing data for cumulative impact estimation, That can be used as a policy decision support tool that provides quantitative information for development area management, such as time series effect and sprawl phenomenon.

Do risk factors for problem behaviour act in a cumulative manner? An examination of ethnic minority and majority children through an ecological perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Atzaba-Poria, Naama; Pike, Alison; Deater-Deckard, Kirby

2004-05-01

Extensive research has identified risk factors for problem behaviour in childhood. However, most of this research has focused on isolated variables, ignoring possible additive influences. The purpose of this study was to examine whether risk factors for problem behaviour act in a cumulative manner, and to investigate whether cumulative risk stemming from distinct ecological levels (Bronfenbrenner, 1979) differentially influences the manifestation of problem behaviours in middle childhood. In addition, ethnic differences between minority (i.e., Indian) and majority (i.e., English) families were examined. The sample consisted of 125 children (59 English and 66 of Indian origin) between the ages of 7 and 9.6 (M = 8.51, SD = 0.62) and their parents. Both mothers and fathers completed questionnaires regarding the children's problem behaviour and provided reports of the children's characteristics and environment. Children were also assessed and provided reports about themselves and their relationships. Finally, parent-child mutuality and parenting behaviour were coded from a videotaped parent-child interaction task. Risk factors acted in a cumulative manner - the more risk children experienced, the more problem behaviour they exhibited. Total problem behaviour was predicted by all three levels: individual, microsystem and exosystem. However, externalising problems were mainly predicted by microsystem-level cumulative risk, whereas internalising problems were predicted by both individual-level cumulative risk and exosystem-level cumulative risk. These results were similar for both ethnic groups. The support for the cumulative hypothesis highlights the importance of having a broad picture of children's characteristics and environmental components when analysing children's adjustment. The distinct influence of risk stemming from the different ecological levels suggests that the trajectories of internalising, externalising and total problem behaviour may be different.

Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groer, P.G.

1980-01-01

New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

Cumulative childhood risk and adult functioning in abused and neglected children grown up.

Science.gov (United States)

Horan, Jacqueline M; Widom, Cathy Spatz

2015-08-01

This paper examines the relationship between childhood exposure to cumulative risk and three indicators of psychosocial adjustment in adulthood (educational attainment, mental health, and criminal behavior) and tests three different models (linear, quadratic, and interaction). Data were collected over several time points from individuals who were part of a prospective cohort design study that matched children with documented cases of abuse and/or neglect with children without such histories and followed them into adulthood. Hierarchical multiple regressions compared linear and quadratic models and then examined potential moderating effects of child abuse/neglect and gender. Exposure to a greater number of childhood risk factors was significantly related to fewer years of education, more anxiety and depression symptomatology, and more criminal arrests in adulthood. The relationship between cumulative risk and years of education demonstrated a curvilinear pattern, whereas the relationship between cumulative risk and both mental health and criminal arrests was linear. Child abuse/neglect did not moderate these relationships, although there were direct effects for both child abuse/neglect and gender on criminal arrests, with more arrests for abused/neglected individuals than controls and more for males than females. Gender interacted with cumulative risk to impact educational attainment and criminal behavior, suggesting that interventions may be more effective if tailored differently for males and females. Interventions may need to be multifaceted and designed to address these different domains of functioning.

Repeated exposure to high-frequency spanking and child externalizing behavior across the first decade: a moderating role for cumulative risk.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKenzie, Michael J; Nicklas, Eric; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; Waldfogel, Jane

2014-12-01

This study used the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study to examine the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting on child externalizing behavior across the first decade of life, and a moderating role for cumulative ecological risk. Maternal report of harsh parenting, defined as high frequency spanking, was assessed at age 1, 3, 5, and 9, along with child externalizing at age 9 (N=2,768). Controlling for gender, race, maternal nativity, and city of residence, we found a cumulative risk index to significantly moderate the effects of repeated harsh parenting on child behavior, with the effects of repeated high-frequency spanking being amplified for those experiencing greater levels of cumulative risk. Harsh parenting, in the form of high frequency spanking, remains a too common experience for children, and results demonstrate that the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting across the first decade are amplified for those children already facing the most burden. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Re-conceptualising prenatal life stressors in predicting post-partum depression: cumulative-, specific-, and domain-specific approaches to calculating risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Cindy H; Tronick, Ed

2013-09-01

Prenatal life stress predicts post-partum depression (PPD); however, studies generally examine individual stressors (a specific approach) or the summation of such exposure (a cumulative approach) and their associations with PPD. Such approaches may oversimplify prenatal life stress as a risk factor for PPD. We evaluated approaches in assessing prenatal life stress as a predictor of PPD diagnosis, including a domain-specific approach that captures cumulative life stress while accounting for stress across different life stress domains: financial, relational, and physical health. The Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, a population-based survey, was used to analyse the association of prenatal life stressors with PPD diagnoses among 3566 New York City post-partum women. Specific stressors were not associated with PPD diagnosis after controlling for sociodemographic variables. Exposure to a greater number of stressors was associated with PPD diagnosis, even after adjusting for both sociodemographic variables and specific stressors [odds ratio (OR) = 3.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.5, 6.7]. Individuals reporting a moderate-to-high number of financial problems along with a moderate-to-high number of physical problems were at greater odds of PPD (OR = 4.2, 95% CI = 1.2, 15.3); those with a moderate-to-high number of problems in all three domains were at over fivefold increased odds of PPD (OR = 5.5, CI = 1.1, 28.5). In assessing prenatal stress, clinicians should consider the extent to which stressors occur across different life domains; this association appears stronger with PPD diagnosis than simple assessments of individual stressors, which typically overestimate risk or cumulative exposures. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Social Determinants of Health in Environmental Justice Communities: Examining Cumulative Risk in Terms of Environmental Exposures and Social Determinants of Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Prochaska, John D; Nolen, Alexandra B; Kelley, Hilton; Sexton, Ken; Linder, Stephen H; Sullivan, John

2014-01-01

Residents of environmental justice (EJ) communities may bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk, and often face additional burdens from social determinants of health. Accounting for cumulative risk should include measures of risk from both environmental sources and social determinants. This study sought to better understand cumulative health risk from both social and environmental sources in a disadvantaged community in Texas. Key outcomes were determining what data are currently available for this assessment, clarifying data needs, identifying data gaps, and considering how those gaps could be filled. Analyses suggested that the traditionally defined EJ community in Port Arthur may have a lower environmental risk from air toxics than the rest of the City of Port Arthur (although the entire city has a higher risk than the average for the state), but may have a larger burden from social determinants of health. However, the results should be interpreted in light of the availability of data, the definitions of community boundaries, and the areal unit utilized. Continued focus on environmental justice communities and the cumulative risks faced by their residents is critical to protecting these residents and, ultimately, moving towards a more equitable distribution and acceptable level of risk throughout society.

Conceptual and methodological challenges to integrating SEA and cumulative effects assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunn, Jill; Noble, Bram F.

2011-01-01

The constraints to assessing and managing cumulative environmental effects in the context of project-based environmental assessment are well documented, and the potential benefits of a more strategic approach to cumulative effects assessment (CEA) are well argued; however, such benefits have yet to be clearly demonstrated in practice. While it is widely assumed that cumulative effects are best addressed in a strategic context, there has been little investigation as to whether CEA and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) are a 'good fit' - conceptually or methodologically. This paper identifies a number of conceptual and methodological challenges to the integration of CEA and SEA. Based on results of interviews with international experts and practitioners, this paper demonstrates that: definitions and conceptualizations of CEA are typically weak in practice; approaches to effects aggregation vary widely; a systems perspective lacks in both SEA and CEA; the multifarious nature of SEA complicates CEA; tiering arrangements between SEA and project-based assessment are limited to non-existing; and the relationship of SEA to regional planning remains unclear.

Cumulative impact assessments and bird/wind farm interactions: Developing a conceptual framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masden, Elizabeth A.; Fox, Anthony D.; Furness, Robert W.; Bullman, Rhys; Haydon, Daniel T.

2010-01-01

The wind power industry has grown rapidly in the UK to meet EU targets of sourcing 20% of energy from renewable sources by 2020. Although wind power is a renewable energy source, there are environmental concerns over increasing numbers of wind farm proposals and associated cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. EU and UK legislation requires a cumulative impact assessment (CIA) as part of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA). However, in the absence of detailed guidance and definitions, such assessments within EIA are rarely adequate, restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Here we propose a conceptual framework to promote transparency in CIA through the explicit definition of impacts, actions and scales within an assessment. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development EIAs. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating CIA to a strategic level, as a component of spatially explicit planning.

Assessing the cumulative environmental effects of marine renewable energy developments: Establishing common ground.

Science.gov (United States)

Willsteed, Edward; Gill, Andrew B; Birchenough, Silvana N R; Jude, Simon

2017-01-15

Assessing and managing the cumulative impacts of human activities on the environment remains a major challenge to sustainable development. This challenge is highlighted by the worldwide expansion of marine renewable energy developments (MREDs) in areas already subject to multiple activities and climate change. Cumulative effects assessments in theory provide decision makers with adequate information about how the environment will respond to the incremental effects of licensed activities and are a legal requirement in many nations. In practise, however, such assessments are beset by uncertainties resulting in substantial delays during the licensing process that reduce MRED investor confidence and limit progress towards meeting climate change targets. In light of these targets and ambitions to manage the marine environment sustainably, reducing the uncertainty surrounding MRED effects and cumulative effects assessment are timely and vital. This review investigates the origins and evolution of cumulative effects assessment to identify why the multitude of approaches and pertinent research have emerged, and discusses key considerations and challenges relevant to assessing the cumulative effects of MREDs and other activities on ecosystems. The review recommends a shift away from the current reliance on disparate environmental impact assessments and limited strategic environmental assessments, and a move towards establishing a common system of coordinated data and research relative to ecologically meaningful areas, focussed on the needs of decision makers tasked with protecting and conserving marine ecosystems and services. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

Science.gov (United States)

Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

2018-02-01

Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Comparison of cumulative false-positive risk of screening mammography in the United States and Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, Katja Kemp

2015-01-01

INTRODUCTION: In the United States (US), about one-half of women screened with annual mammography have at least one false-positive test after ten screens. The estimate for European women screened ten times biennially is much lower. We evaluate to what extent screening interval, mammogram type......=400,204), between 1991-2012 and 1993-2013, respectively. Model-based cumulative false-positive risks were computed for the entire sample, using two statistical methods (Hubbard Njor) previously used to estimate false-positive risks in the US and Europe. RESULTS: Empirical cumulative risk of at least...... one false-positive test after eight (annual or biennial) screens was 41.9% in BCSC, 16.1% in Copenhagen, and 7.4% in Funen. Variation in screening interval and mammogram type did not explain the differences by country. Using the Hubbard method, the model-based cumulative risks after eight screens...

Cumulative risk exposure moderates the association between parasympathetic reactivity and inhibitory control in preschool-age children.

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliano, Ryan J; Roos, Leslie E; Farrar, Jessica D; Skowron, Elizabeth A

2018-04-01

A child's cumulative risk for early exposure to stress has been linked to alterations of self-regulation outcomes, including neurobiological correlates of inhibitory control (IC). We examined whether children's ability to engage the parasympathetic nervous system impacts how risk affects IC. Children ages 3-5 years completed two laboratory measures of IC while respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) was measured, indexing parasympathetic activity. Children with greater risk demonstrated lower IC; risk also moderated associations between RSA reactivity and IC. For children with less risk, greater RSA withdrawal during IC tasks was associated with better IC. In contrast, greater risk was associated with poor IC, regardless of RSA withdrawal. Effects of risk were more pronounced for cumulative than individual measures. Results suggest that cumulative risk exposure disrupts connectivity between physiological and behavioral components of self-regulation in early childhood. Parasympathetic withdrawal to cognitive tasks may be less relevant for performance in developmental samples experiencing greater life stress. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Looking up, down, and sideways: Reconceiving cumulative effects assessment as a mindset

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sinclair, A. John, E-mail: jsincla@umanitoba.ca [Natural Resources Institute, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2 (Canada); Doelle, Meinhard, E-mail: mdoelle@dal.ca [Marine & Environmental Law Institute, Dalhousie University, Schulich School of Law, Dalhousie University, 6061 University Ave., Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2 (Canada); Duinker, Peter N., E-mail: peter.duinker@dal.ca [School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, 6100 University Ave., Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2 (Canada)

2017-01-15

Despite all the effort that has gone into defining, researching and establishing best practices for cumulative effects assessment (CEA), understanding remains weak and practice wanting. At one extreme of implementation, CEA can be described as merely an irritant to the completion of a project-specific environmental assessment (EA). At the other extreme, the conceptual view is that all effects in EA should be deemed cumulative unless demonstrated otherwise. Our purpose here is to consider how we might reconceive CEA as a mindset that is at the heart of absolutely every assessment of valued ecosystem component (VEC) to ensure that we understand the relative contributions of various stressors and can decide when cumulative effects may foreclose future activities due to impacts on VECs. Conceptually, we ground the CEA mindset in the context of three lenses that must all be functioning and working together for the mindset to be operative: a technical lens; a law and policy lens; and a participatory lens. Our arguments are based on a review of the CEA, strategic effects assessment (SEA) and regional effects assessment literatures, an examination and consideration of Canadian EA and SEA case practice, and our combined professional experiences. Through using the Bay of Fundy in Canada as a case example, we establish the concept of the CEA mindset and an approach for moving forward with implementation. - Highlights: • Conceptualization of cumulative effects assessment as a mindset. • Elaboration of technical, law and policy and participation lenses critical to CEA • Coordination and integration of cumulative effects for valued ecosystem components • Application in Bay of Fundy ecosystem and terrestrial watershed.

Low Fruit/Vegetable Consumption in the Home: Cumulative Risk Factors in Early Childhood

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Wendy L.; Swindle, Taren M.; Kyzer, Angela L.; Whiteside-Mansell, Leanne

2015-01-01

Cumulative risk theory suggests that a variety of social risk factors would have an additive effect on obesity risk. Multiple studies have suggested that obesity is related to basic resources such as transportation and financial resources. Additional research points to parental engagement and parental monitoring as additional sources of risk. This…

Stakeholder attitudes towards cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides.

Science.gov (United States)

Verbeke, Wim; Van Loo, Ellen J; Vanhonacker, Filiep; Delcour, Ilse; Spanoghe, Pieter; van Klaveren, Jacob D

2015-05-01

This study evaluates the attitudes and perspectives of different stakeholder groups (agricultural producers, pesticide manufacturers, trading companies, retailers, regulators, food safety authorities, scientists and NGOs) towards the concepts of cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides by means of qualitative in-depth interviews (n = 15) and a quantitative stakeholder survey (n = 65). The stakeholders involved generally agreed that the use of chemical pesticides is needed, primarily for meeting the need of feeding the growing world population, while clearly acknowledging the problematic nature of human exposure to pesticide residues. Current monitoring was generally perceived to be adequate, but the timeliness and consistency of monitoring practices across countries were questioned. The concept of cumulative exposure assessment was better understood by stakeholders than the concept of aggregate exposure assessment. Identified pitfalls were data availability, data limitations, sources and ways of dealing with uncertainties, as well as information and training needs. Regulators and food safety authorities were perceived as the stakeholder groups for whom cumulative and aggregate pesticide exposure assessment methods and tools would be most useful and acceptable. Insights obtained from this exploratory study have been integrated in the development of targeted and stakeholder-tailored dissemination and training programmes that were implemented within the EU-FP7 project ACROPOLIS. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative effects in strategic environmental assessment: The influence of plan boundaries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bidstrup, Morten, E-mail: bidstrup@plan.aau.dk [Aalborg University (Denmark); Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [Aalborg University (Denmark); Partidário, Maria Rosário, E-mail: mariapartidario@tecnico.ulisboa.pt [CEG-IST, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa (Portugal)

2016-02-15

Cumulative effects (CE) assessment is lacking quality in impact assessment (IA) worldwide. It has been argued that the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) provides a suitable IA framework for addressing CE because it is applied to developments with broad boundaries, but few have tested this claim. Through a case study on the Danish mining sector, this article explores how plan boundaries influence the analytical boundaries applied for assessing CE in SEA. The case was studied through document analysis in combination with semi-structured group interviews of the responsible planners, who also serve as SEA practitioners. It was found that CE are to some extent assessed and managed implicitly throughout the planning process. However, this is through a focus on lowering the cumulative stress of mining rather than the cumulative stress on and capacity of the receiving environment. Plan boundaries do influence CE assessment, though all boundaries are not equally influential. The geographical and time boundaries of the Danish mining plans are broad or flexible enough to accommodate a meaningful assessment of CE, but the topical boundary is restrictive. The study indicates that collaboration among planning authorities and legally appointed CE leadership may facilitate better practice on CE assessment in sector-specific SEA contexts. However, most pressing is the need for relating assessment to the receiving environment as opposed to solely the stress of a proposed plan.

Cumulative effects in strategic environmental assessment: The influence of plan boundaries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bidstrup, Morten; Kørnøv, Lone; Partidário, Maria Rosário

2016-01-01

Cumulative effects (CE) assessment is lacking quality in impact assessment (IA) worldwide. It has been argued that the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) provides a suitable IA framework for addressing CE because it is applied to developments with broad boundaries, but few have tested this claim. Through a case study on the Danish mining sector, this article explores how plan boundaries influence the analytical boundaries applied for assessing CE in SEA. The case was studied through document analysis in combination with semi-structured group interviews of the responsible planners, who also serve as SEA practitioners. It was found that CE are to some extent assessed and managed implicitly throughout the planning process. However, this is through a focus on lowering the cumulative stress of mining rather than the cumulative stress on and capacity of the receiving environment. Plan boundaries do influence CE assessment, though all boundaries are not equally influential. The geographical and time boundaries of the Danish mining plans are broad or flexible enough to accommodate a meaningful assessment of CE, but the topical boundary is restrictive. The study indicates that collaboration among planning authorities and legally appointed CE leadership may facilitate better practice on CE assessment in sector-specific SEA contexts. However, most pressing is the need for relating assessment to the receiving environment as opposed to solely the stress of a proposed plan.

Cumulative Risk of Bovine Mastitis Treatments in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saloniemi H

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Data from the national dairy cow recording systems during 1997 were used to calculate lactation-specific cumulative risk of mastitis treatments and cumulative risk of removal from the herds in Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. Sweden had the lowest risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation and Norway had the highest risk. The incidence risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden was 0.177, 0.139, 0.215 and 0.127 for first parity cows and 0.228, 0.215, 0.358 and 0.204 for parities higher than three, respectively. The risk of a first parity cow being treated for mastitis was almost 3 times higher at calving in Norway than in Sweden. The period with the highest risk for mastitis treatments was from 2 days before calving until 14 days after calving and the highest risk for removal was from calving to 10 days after calving in all countries. The study clearly demonstrated differences in bovine mastitis treatment patterns among the Nordic countries. The most important findings were the differences in treatment risks during different lactations within each country, as well as differences in strategies with respect to the time during lactation mastitis was treated.

Cumulative risk of bovine mastitis treatments in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Valde, J P; Lawson, L G; Lindberg, A; Agger, J F; Saloniemi, H; Osterås, O

2004-01-01

Data from the national dairy cow recording systems during 1997 were used to calculate lactation-specific cumulative risk of mastitis treatments and cumulative risk of removal from the herds in Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. Sweden had the lowest risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation and Norway had the highest risk. The incidence risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden was 0.177, 0.139, 0.215 and 0.127 for first parity cows and 0.228, 0.215, 0.358 and 0.204 for parities higher than three, respectively. The risk of a first parity cow being treated for mastitis was almost 3 times higher at calving in Norway than in Sweden. The period with the highest risk for mastitis treatments was from 2 days before calving until 14 days after calving and the highest risk for removal was from calving to 10 days after calving in all countries. The study clearly demonstrated differences in bovine mastitis treatment patterns among the Nordic countries. The most important findings were the differences in treatment risks during different lactations within each country, as well as differences in strategies with respect to the time during lactation mastitis was treated.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Cumulative assessment: does it improve students’ knowledge acquisition and retention?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cecilio Fernandes, Dario; Nagtegaal, Manouk; Noordzij, Gera; Tio, Rene

2017-01-01

Introduction Assessment for learning means changing students’ behaviour regarding their learning. Cumulative assessment has been shown to increase students’ self-study time and spread their study time throughout a course. However, there was no difference regarding students’ knowledge at the end of

Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

2014-05-21

Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

The cumulative risk of false-positive screening results across screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roman, M., E-mail: Marta.Roman@kreftregisteret.no [Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo (Norway); Department of Women and Children’s Health, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo (Norway); Skaane, P., E-mail: PERSK@ous-hf.no [Department of Radiology, Oslo University Hospital Ullevaal, University of Oslo, Oslo (Norway); Hofvind, S., E-mail: Solveig.Hofvind@kreftregisteret.no [Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo (Norway); Oslo and Akershus University College of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health Science, Oslo (Norway)

2014-09-15

Highlights: • We found variation in early performance measures across screening centres. • Radiologists’ performance may play a key role in the variability. • Potential to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening programs. • Continuous surveillance of screening centres and radiologists is essential. - Abstract: Background: Recall for assessment in mammographic screening entails an inevitable number of false-positive screening results. This study aimed to investigate the variation in the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result and the positive predictive value across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Methods: We studied 618,636 women aged 50–69 years who underwent 2,090,575 screening exams (1996–2010. Recall rate, positive predictive value, rate of screen-detected cancer, and the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result, without and with invasive procedures across the screening centres were calculated. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the probability of a false positive screening result and to compute the cumulative false-positive risk for up to ten biennial screening examinations. Results: The cumulative risk of a false-positive screening exam varied from 10.7% (95% CI: 9.4–12.0%) to 41.5% (95% CI: 34.1–48.9%) across screening centres, with a highest to lowest ratio of 3.9 (95% CI: 3.7–4.0). The highest to lowest ratio for the cumulative risk of undergoing an invasive procedure with a benign outcome was 4.3 (95% CI: 4.0–4.6). The positive predictive value of recall varied between 12.0% (95% CI: 11.0–12.9%) and 19.9% (95% CI: 18.3–21.5%), with a highest to lowest ratio of 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9). Conclusions: A substantial variation in the performance measures across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program was identified, despite of similar administration, procedures, and quality assurance requirements. Differences in the

The cumulative risk of false-positive screening results across screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roman, M.; Skaane, P.; Hofvind, S.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We found variation in early performance measures across screening centres. • Radiologists’ performance may play a key role in the variability. • Potential to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening programs. • Continuous surveillance of screening centres and radiologists is essential. - Abstract: Background: Recall for assessment in mammographic screening entails an inevitable number of false-positive screening results. This study aimed to investigate the variation in the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result and the positive predictive value across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Methods: We studied 618,636 women aged 50–69 years who underwent 2,090,575 screening exams (1996–2010. Recall rate, positive predictive value, rate of screen-detected cancer, and the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result, without and with invasive procedures across the screening centres were calculated. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the probability of a false positive screening result and to compute the cumulative false-positive risk for up to ten biennial screening examinations. Results: The cumulative risk of a false-positive screening exam varied from 10.7% (95% CI: 9.4–12.0%) to 41.5% (95% CI: 34.1–48.9%) across screening centres, with a highest to lowest ratio of 3.9 (95% CI: 3.7–4.0). The highest to lowest ratio for the cumulative risk of undergoing an invasive procedure with a benign outcome was 4.3 (95% CI: 4.0–4.6). The positive predictive value of recall varied between 12.0% (95% CI: 11.0–12.9%) and 19.9% (95% CI: 18.3–21.5%), with a highest to lowest ratio of 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9). Conclusions: A substantial variation in the performance measures across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program was identified, despite of similar administration, procedures, and quality assurance requirements. Differences in the

Parenting intervention and the caregiving environment : cumulative risk and process evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stolk, Mirjam Neeltje

2007-01-01

The objective of the research described in this thesis was to study single and cumulative family risk in relation to early childhood externalizing problems and the effectiveness of a parenting intervention program. The Video-feedback Intervention to promote Positive Parenting and Sensitive

Cumulative socioeconomic status risk, allostatic load, and adjustment: a prospective latent profile analysis with contextual and genetic protective factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M; Evans, Gary W; Beach, Steven R H; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X; Philibert, Robert A

2013-05-01

The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at ages 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A latent profile analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence.

Use of significance thresholds to integrate cumulative effects into project-level socio-economic impact assessment in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joseph, Chris; Zeeg, Taylor; Angus, David; Usborne, Anna; Mutrie, Erin

2017-01-01

A longstanding critique of project-level environmental assessment is that it is weak at addressing cumulative effects, and because of this many argue that cumulative effects are best managed at a regional scale. However, in the absence of regional management it is important that project-level assessment supports cumulative effects management as best as possible. In this paper we present case study socio-economic impact assessments of liquefied natural gas development on Aboriginal groups on Canada's west coast. The case studies use an analytical structure modified from typical Canadian practice including unambiguous and non-arbitrary significance thresholds grounded in stakeholder values to focus baselines, impact assessment, and significance determination on cumulative effects. This approach is found to be more capable of informing decision-makers on cumulative effects as well as more rigorous and transparent than typical assessments. Much of this approach is not conceptually new, but at least in western Canada such an approach is not typically used or meaningfully implemented by practitioners. As such, the case studies serve to illustrate how practice can bolster project-level assessment. - Highlights: •Typical project assessment is weak with respect to cumulative effects. •Modified analysis structure and thresholds enable a focus on cumulative effects. •Clear, value-based thresholds make analysis rigorous, transparent, and democratic.

Incorporating cumulative effects into environmental assessments of mariculture: Limitations and failures of current siting methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, Sarah C.; Pushchak, Ronald

2008-01-01

Assessing and evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple marine aquaculture facilities has proved difficult in environmental assessment. A retrospective review of 23 existing mariculture farms in southwestern New Brunswick was conducted to determine whether cumulative interactions would have justified site approvals. Based on current scientific evidence of cumulative effects, six new criteria were added to a set of far-field impacts and other existing criteria were expanded to include regional and cumulative environmental impacts in Hargrave's [Hargrave BT. A traffic light decision system for marine finfish aquaculture siting. Ocean Coast Manag 2002; 45:215-35.] Traffic Light Decision Support System (DSS) presently used in Canadian aquaculture environmental assessments. Before mitigation, 19 of the 23 sites failed the amended set of criteria and after considering mitigation, 8 sites failed. Site and ecosystem indices yielded varying site acceptability scores; however, many sites would not have been approved if siting decisions had been made within a regional management framework and cumulative impact criteria were considered in the site evaluation process

Consumption of fruits and vegetables and probabilistic assessment of the cumulative acute exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides of schoolchildren in Slovenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Blaznik, Urška; Yngve, Agneta; Eržen, Ivan; Hlastan Ribič, Cirila

2016-02-01

Adequate consumption of fruits and vegetables is a part of recommendations for a healthy diet. The aim of the present study was to assess acute cumulative dietary exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides via fruit and vegetable consumption by the population of schoolchildren aged 11-12 years and the level of risk for their health. Cumulative probabilistic risk assessment methodology with the index compound approach was applied. Slovenia, primary schools. Schoolchildren (n 1145) from thirty-one primary schools in Slovenia. Children were part of the PRO GREENS study 2009/10 which assessed 11-year-olds' consumption of fruit and vegetables in ten European countries. The cumulative acute exposure amounted to 8.3 (95% CI 7.7, 10.6) % of the acute reference dose (ARfD) for acephate as index compound (100 µg/kg body weight per d) at the 99.9th percentile for daily intake and to 4.5 (95% CI 3.5, 4.7) % of the ARfD at the 99.9th percentile for intakes during school time and at lunch. Apples, bananas, oranges and lettuce contributed most to the total acute pesticides intake. The estimations showed that acute dietary exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides is not a health concern for schoolchildren with the assessed dietary patterns of fruit and vegetable consumption.

Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper; Belsky, Daniel W; Danese, Andrea; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate M; Poulton, Richie; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Caspi, Avshalom

2018-05-09

Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP). Participants with available plasma samples at age 38 were included (N = 837, 50.5% male). suPAR (mean 2.40 ng/ml; SD 0.91) was positively correlated with hsCRP (r 0.15, p childhood risks were aggregated into a Cumulative Childhood Risk index, and controlling for sex, BMI, and smoking, Cumulative Childhood Risk was associated with higher suPAR (b 0.10; SE 0.03; p = .002). Cumulative Childhood Risk predicted elevated suPAR, after controlling for hsCRP (b 0.18; SE 0.03; p childhood risk factors was associated with higher suPAR levels, independent of CRP. suPAR is a useful addition to studies connecting childhood risk to adult inflammatory burden. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden and risk of cognitive decline and dementia among very old women.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeki Al Hazzouri, Adina; Vittinghoff, Eric; Byers, Amy; Covinsky, Ken; Blazer, Dan; Diem, Susan; Ensrud, Kristine E; Yaffe, Kristine

2014-05-01

Depressive symptoms and cognitive outcomes are strongly interrelated. Despite that rates of depressive symptoms fluctuate during late life, little is known about the impact of long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden on cognitive decline and dementia in older adults. This study examines the association of nearly 20 years of cumulative depressive symptoms with cognitive outcomes in a cohort of older women. We assessed depressive symptoms in 7,240 women using the Geriatric Depression scale (GDS) at serial visits. We used a Poisson model with random slopes to estimate GDS trajectories for each participant from baseline to death or end of follow-up, and then characterized depressive symptom burden by quartile of the area under the curve. We assessed cognitive outcomes using repeated measures of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Trails B score over 20 years, Year-20 neuropsychological test battery, and adjudicated dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Adjusting for potential confounders, compared with women in the lowest quartile of cumulative depressive symptoms burden, women in the highest quartile had 21% more MMSE errors over time (95% CI = 17%, 26%), 20% worse Trails B score over time (95% CI = 17%, 23%), worse scores on most of the Year-20 cognitive tests, and a twofold greater likelihood of developing dementia or MCI (95% CI = 1.48, 3.11). Long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden was associated with cognitive decline and risk of dementia or MCI. Older adults with a history of depression should be closely monitored for recurrent episodes or unresolved depressive symptoms as well as any cognitive deficits.

The challenge of cumulative impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masden, Elisabeth

2011-07-01

Full text: As governments pledge to combat climate change, wind turbines are becoming a common feature of terrestrial and marine environments. Although wind power is a renewable energy source and a means of reducing carbon emissions, there is a need to ensure that the wind farms themselves do not damage the environment. There is particular concern over the impacts of wind farms on bird populations, and with increasing numbers of wind farm proposals, the concern focuses on cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any activity/action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. Cumulative impact assessment is a legislative requirement of environmental impact assessment but such assessments are rarely adequate restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Reasons for this are numerous but a recurring theme is the lack of clear definitions and guidance on how to perform cumulative assessments. Here we present a conceptual framework and include illustrative examples to demonstrate how the framework can be used to improve the planning and execution of cumulative impact assessments. The core concept is that explicit definitions of impacts, actions and scales of assessment are required to reduce uncertainty in the process of assessment and improve communication between stake holders. Only when it is clear what has been included within a cumulative assessment, is it possible to make comparisons between developments. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development assessments. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating cumulative

Effects of Cumulative Family Risk Factors on American Students' Academic Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Dunst, Carl J.; Hamby, Deborah W.

2016-01-01

The relationships between cumulative family risk factors and American students' academic performance were examined in all 50 States and the District of Columbia. Data from the 2007 "American Community Survey" were used to ascertain the percent of birth to 18 year old children in the United States who experienced three or more risk…

Language Delay in Severely Neglected Children: A Cumulative or Specific Effect of Risk Factors?

Science.gov (United States)

Sylvestre, Audette; Merette, Chantal

2010-01-01

Objectives: This research sought to determine if the language delay (LD) of severely neglected children under 3 years old was better explained by a cumulative risk model or by the specificity of risk factors. The objective was also to identify the risk factors with the strongest impact on LD among various biological, psychological, and…

Cumulative effects assessment in Canada: an agenda for action and research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peterson, E.B.; Chan, Y.-H.; Peterson, N.M.; Constable, G.A.; Caton, R.B.; Davis, C.S.; Wallace, R.R.; Yarranton, G.A.

1987-01-01

This review of cumulative environmental effects assessment in Canada identified 13 sets of issues that are considered to be of particular significance to Canadians over the next decade or two. They are: long-range transport of air pollutants; urban air quality and airshed saturation, mobilization of persistent or bioaccumulated substances, climatic modification, land occupation by man-made features, habitat alienation and fragmentation, soil losses, effects of agricultural chemicals, groundwater supply reduction and contamination, increased sediment, chemical and thermal loading of freshwater and marine habitats, accelerating rates of renewable resource harvesting, and long-term containment and disposal of toxic wastes. There is a diverse set of examples in which cumulative effects have been recognized and brought under control and management, and the scientific and institutional factors that promoted a successful approach are summarized. It was confirmed that there are well-defined limitations in the degree to which project referrals and project-specific environmental impact assessments can be adapted to manage cumulative effects successfully. In general, this review confirmed the hypothesis that current approaches for both scientific analyses and institutional arrangements to manage cumulative effects remain inadequately developed in Canada. To address this weakness, action is required on improving links between ecosystems, research, and management. Recommendations are made and a research agenda is presented. 171 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

Associations between parenting, media use, cumulative risk, and children’s executive functioning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linebarger, D.L.; Barr, R.; Lapierre, M.A.; Piotrowski, J.

2014-01-01

Objective: This study was designed to examine how parenting style, media exposure, and cumulative risk were associated with executive functioning (EF) during early childhood. Methods: A nationally representative group of US parents/caregivers (N = 1156) with 1 child between 2 and 8 years

A method proposal for cumulative environmental impact assessment based on the landscape vulnerability evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika

2015-01-01

Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process

Weak self-directed learning skills hamper performance in cumulative assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tio, Rene A.; Stegmann, Mariken E.; Koerts, Janke; van Os, Titus W. D. P.; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke

2016-01-01

Background: Self-regulated learning is an important determinant of academic performance. Previous research has shown that cumulative assessment encourages students to work harder and improve their results. However, not all students seem to respond as intended. We investigated the influence of

Cumulative Risk Disparities in Children's Neurocognitive Functioning: A Developmental Cascade Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wade, Mark; Browne, Dillon T.; Plamondon, Andre; Daniel, Ella; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

2016-01-01

The current longitudinal study examined the role of cumulative social risk on children's theory of mind (ToM) and executive functioning (EF) across early development. Further, we also tested a cascade model of development in which children's social cognition at 18 months was hypothesized to predict ToM and EF at age 4.5 through intermediary…

Safety culture' is integrating 'human' into risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugimoto, Taiji

2014-01-01

Significance of Fukushima nuclear power accident requested reconsideration of safety standards, of which we had usually no doubt. Risk assessment standard (JIS B 9702), Which was used for repetition of database preparation and cumulative assessment, defined allowable risk and residual risk. However, work site and immediate assessment was indispensable beside such assessment so as to ensure safety. Risk of casualties was absolutely not acceptable in principle and judgments to approve allowable risk needed accountability, which was reminded by safety culture proposed by IAEA and also identified by investigation of organizational cause of Columbia accident. Actor of safety culture would be organization and individual, and mainly individual. Realization of safety culture was conducted by personnel having moral consciousness and firm sense of mission in the course of jobs and working daily with sweat pouring. Safety engineering/technology should have framework integrating human as such totality. (T. Tanaka)

The proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eriksson, Frank; Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas

2015-01-01

We suggest an estimator for the proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks data. The key advantage of this model is that the regression parameters have the simple and useful odds ratio interpretation. The model has been considered by many authors, but it is rarely used...... in practice due to the lack of reliable estimation procedures. We suggest such procedures and show that their performance improve considerably on existing methods. We also suggest a goodness-of-fit test for the proportional odds assumption. We derive the large sample properties and provide estimators...

Looking Ahead: The Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munn, R.E.

1994-01-01

Proceeding of a workshop on the Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments (CEA's) were presented.. Also included were three working group reports and papers presented at the conference. The issue of the concept of Cumulative Environmental Assessments was summarized, along with the current transformation to a more global outlook. The concepts and methodological questions associated with ecology and economics were tackled. CEA methods were discussed and a contrast was made with land-use planning. The importance of long-term monitoring programs was introduced and examples of early warning systems were given. Social science issues behind CEAs were also discussed. Recommendation e for preparing CEA's, the design of early warning monitoring systems, and public involvement, were made.. Contributed papers covered topics related to environmental assessment, pollution, and climate change

Cumulative reproductive effects of in utero administration of mixtures of antiandrogens in male SD rats: synergy or additivity?

Science.gov (United States)

In 1996 the USEPA was charged under the FQPA to consider the cumulative effects of chemicals in their risk assessments. Our studies were conducted to provide a framework for assessing the cumulative effects of antiandrogens. Toxicants were administered individually or as mixtures...

Fuzzy set theory for cumulative trauma prediction

OpenAIRE

Fonseca, Daniel J.; Merritt, Thomas W.; Moynihan, Gary P.

2001-01-01

A widely used fuzzy reasoning algorithm was modified and implemented via an expert system to assess the potential risk of employee repetitive strain injury in the workplace. This fuzzy relational model, known as the Priority First Cover Algorithm (PFC), was adapted to describe the relationship between 12 cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) of the upper extremity, and 29 identified risk factors. The algorithm, which finds a suboptimal subset from a group of variables based on the criterion of...

Cumulative Risk Exposure and Mental Health Symptoms among Maltreated Youth Placed in Out-of-Home Care

Science.gov (United States)

Raviv, Tali; Taussig, Heather N.; Culhane, Sara E.; Garrido, Edward F.

2010-01-01

Objective: Maltreated children placed in out-of-home care are at high risk for exhibiting symptoms of psychopathology by virtue of their exposure to numerous risk factors. Research examining cumulative risk has consistently found that the accumulation of risk factors increases the likelihood of mental health problems. The goal of the current study…

Comparative assessment of spent nuclear fuel transportation routes using risk factors and a geographic information system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, D.M.

1996-01-01

The assessment of potential alternative routes was simplified through the use of six comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed, route-specific data. The route and environmental attributes varied strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The six comparative factors were risk measures of incident-free transportation radiation exposure, radiological accident population exposure, nonradiological accidents, contamination of environmental sensitive areas, environmental justice for minority populations, and environmental justice for low-income populations. An assessment of four real North-Central Florida routes provided a sample implementation of the analysis tools and risk factors. The assessment routes, consisting of common beginning and end locations, included an interstate highway, a rural highway, a mostly urban highway, and a combination interstate highway with rural bypass. This route comparative assessment study predicted that the interstate highway, despite a higher population density, greater traffic volume, and greater number of vehicular fatality accidents, would present the lowest cumulative risk. On the contrary, the rural highway route, characterized as having the lowest population density, minimal vehicle traffic volume, and the lowest percentages of minority and low-income populations, displayed the highest cumulative risk measure. Factors contributing to the high risk for the rural highway route included greater route length, higher vehicular fatality accident rates per vehicle mile traveled, and the close proximity to environmentally sensitive areas. This route comparative assessment study predicted that the interstate highway, despite a higher population density, greater traffic volume, and greater number of vehicular fatality accidents, would present the lowest cumulative risk. On the contrary, the rural highway route, characterized as having the lowest population density, minimal vehicle traffic volume

Towards personalized screening: Cumulative risk of breast cancer screening outcomes in women with and without a first-degree relative with a history of breast cancer

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ripping, Theodora Maria; Hubbard, Rebecca A.; Otten, Johannes D. M.; den Heeten, Gerard J.; Verbeek, André L. M.; Broeders, Mireille J. M.

2016-01-01

Several reviews have estimated the balance of benefits and harms of mammographic screening in the general population. The balance may, however, differ between individuals with and without family history. Therefore, our aim is to assess the cumulative risk of screening outcomes; screen-detected

Use of ecological exposure units in ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferenbaugh, R.; Myers, O.; Gallegos, A.; Breshears, D.; Ebinger, M.

1995-01-01

The traditional approach to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites that are being evaluated for cleanup under CERCLA or RCRA requirements is to focus on the immediate impacts at or adjacent to a site. While this may be acceptable in some situations, it is not ecologically defensible in situations where there are numerous contaminated sites in proximity to each other. In the latter case, transport from the sites, potential cumulative effects, and wide-ranging receptors must be considered. The concept of the Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU) has been proposed to address this situation. Ecological Exposure Units are defined on the basis of ecological considerations and each EEU may contain several to many contaminated sites. The initial steps involved in performing ecological risk assessments using the EEU approach include (1) selection of appropriate receptors and assessment endpoints, and (2) geographical definition of EEUs. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, receptors have been identified and EEUs have been defined for these receptors. GIS is being used as a tool to map EEUs. Receptors include representatives from threatened or endangered species, species reflecting status of ecological health, species with social or cultural relevance, and other species of concern. After definition of EEUs, cumulative impacts of all stressors at all sites within each EEU must be evaluated. The two major advantages to performing ecological risk assessments using this approach are that risk assessments are performed in a more scientifically defensible manner because they are performed on ecologically defined units and that resources are used optimally by minimizing redundant remedial activities

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

Science.gov (United States)

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

Social Determinants of Health in Environmental Justice Communities: Examining Cumulative Risk in Terms of Environmental Exposures and Social Determinants of Health

OpenAIRE

Prochaska, John D.; Nolen, Alexandra B.; Kelley, Hilton; Sexton, Ken; Linder, Stephen H.; Sullivan, John

2014-01-01

Residents of environmental justice (EJ) communities may bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk, and often face additional burdens from social determinants of health. Accounting for cumulative risk should include measures of risk from both environmental sources and social determinants. This study sought to better understand cumulative health risk from both social and environmental sources in a disadvantaged community in Texas. Key outcomes were determining what data are cu...

Cumulative Risk and Continuity in Nonparental Care from Infancy to Early Adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Colwell, Malinda J; Pettit, Gregory S; Meece, Darrell; Bates, John E; Dodge, Kenneth A

2001-04-01

Variations in amounts of nonparental care across infancy, preschool, early elementary school, and early adolescence were examined in a longitudinal sample (N = 438). Of interest was (a) continuity in use of the different arrangements, (b) whether the arrangements were additively and cumulatively associated with children's externalizing behavior problems, and (c) whether predictive relations were accounted for by social-ecological (socioeconomic status, mothers' employment status, marital status) and social-experiential (parenting quality, exposure to aggressive peers) factors. Correlations among overall amounts of care provided little evidence of cross-time continuity. Consistent with the cumulative risk perspective, Grade 1 self-care and Grade 6 unsupervised peer contact incrementally predicted Grade 6 externalizing problems. Most of the predictive associations were accounted for by family background and social relationship factors.

Cumulative risk effects for the development of behaviour difficulties in children and adolescents with special educational needs and disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Oldfield, Jeremy; Humphrey, Neil; Hebron, Judith

2015-01-01

Research has identified multiple risk factors for the development of behaviour difficulties. What have been less explored are the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple risks on behavioural outcomes, with no study specifically investigating these effects within a population of young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Furthermore, it is unclear whether a threshold or linear risk model better fits the data for this population. The sample included 2660 children and 1628 adolescents with SEND. Risk factors associated with increases in behaviour difficulties over an 18-month period were summed to create a cumulative risk score, with this explanatory variable being added into a multi-level model. A quadratic term was then added to test the threshold model. There was evidence of a cumulative risk effect, suggesting that exposure to higher numbers of risk factors, regardless of their exact nature, resulted in increased behaviour difficulties. The relationship between risk and behaviour difficulties was non-linear, with exposure to increasing risk having a disproportionate and detrimental impact on behaviour difficulties in child and adolescent models. Interventions aimed at reducing behaviour difficulties need to consider the impact of multiple risk variables. Tailoring interventions towards those exposed to large numbers of risks would be advantageous. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative Small Effect Genetic Markers and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer in Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Serrano-Fernandez

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The continued identification of new low-penetrance genetic variants for colorectal cancer (CRC raises the question of their potential cumulative effect among compound carriers. We focused on 6 SNPs (rs380284, rs4464148, rs4779584, rs4939827, rs6983267, and rs10795668, already described as risk markers, and tested their possible independent and combined contribution to CRC predisposition. Material and Methods. DNA was collected and genotyped from 2330 unselected consecutive CRC cases and controls from Estonia (166 cases and controls, Latvia (81 cases and controls, Lithuania (123 cases and controls, and Poland (795 cases and controls. Results. Beyond individual effects, the analysis revealed statistically significant linear cumulative effects for these 6 markers for all samples except of the Latvian one (corrected P value = 0.018 for the Estonian, corrected P value = 0.0034 for the Lithuanian, and corrected P value = 0.0076 for the Polish sample. Conclusions. The significant linear cumulative effects demonstrated here support the idea of using sets of low-risk markers for delimiting new groups with high-risk of CRC in clinical practice that are not carriers of the usual CRC high-risk markers.

Education, income and ethnic differences in cumulative biological risk profiles in a national sample of US adults: NHANES III (1988-1994).

Science.gov (United States)

Seeman, Teresa; Merkin, Sharon S; Crimmins, Eileen; Koretz, Brandon; Charette, Susan; Karlamangla, Arun

2008-01-01

Data from the nationally representative US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III cohort were used to examine the hypothesis that socio-economic status is consistently and negatively associated with levels of biological risk, as measured by nine biological parameters known to predict health risks (diastolic and systolic blood pressure, pulse, HDL and total cholesterol, glycosylated hemoglobin, c-reactive protein, albumin and waist-hip ratio), resulting in greater cumulative burdens of biological risk among those of lower education and/or income. As hypothesized, consistent education and income gradients were seen for biological parameters reflecting cardiovascular, metabolic and inflammatory risk: those with lower education and income exhibiting greater prevalence of high-risk values for each of nine individual biological risk factors. Significant education and income gradients were also seen for summary indices reflecting cumulative burdens of cardiovascular, metabolic and inflammatory risks as well as overall total biological risks. Multivariable cumulative logistic regression models revealed that the education and income effects were each independently and negatively associated with cumulative biological risks, and that these effects remained significant independent of age, gender, ethnicity and lifestyle factors such as smoking and physical activity. There were no significant ethnic differences in the patterns of association between socio-economic status and biological risks, but older age was associated with significantly weaker education and income gradients.

Ecological correlates of multiple sexual partnerships among adolescents and young adults in urban Cape Town: a cumulative risk factor approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Muchiri, Evans; Odimegwu, Clifford; Banda, Pamela; Ntoimo, Lorreta; Adedini, Sunday

2017-07-01

Studies in South Africa have reported unsafe levels of risky sexual behvaiours among adolescents and young adults, with the country reporting the highest burden of HIV/AIDS globally, as well as a high rate of teenage pregnancy. While determinants of risky sexual behaviours have been investigated for factors occurring at the individual and household levels, not fully explored in the literature is the effect of community level factors. Furthermore, it is unclear whether risk factors occurring within the ecology of adolescents and young adults act cumulatively to influence their sexual practices. This article aims to address this knowledge gap using a case study of the Cape Area Panel Study of adolescents and young adults in urban Cape Town, South Africa. The ecological framework was adopted to guide the selection of risk factors at the individual, household, and community levels. Multivariate linear discriminant function analyses were used to select significant risk factors for multiple sexual partnerships and used to produce risk indices for the respondents. The cumulative risk approach was applied to test whether significant risk factors acted cumulatively. Findings point to the importance of ecological factors in influencing outcomes of multiple sexual partnerships among respondents and further demonstrate that ecological risk factors may act cumulatively. These findings are important for South Africa that is grappling with teenage pregnancy and disproportionate HIV epidemic among the youth.

Cumulative occupational mechanical exposures during working life and risk of sickness absence and disability pension

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundstrup, Emil; Hansen, Åse Marie; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

2017-01-01

and Midlife Biobank with a job exposure matrix and a national register containing information on social transfer payment. By coding individual job histories from the Danish version of ISCO-codes (International Standard Classification of Occupations), we calculated cumulative occupational mechanical exposures......-regression analyses estimated the relative risk of register-based long-term sickness absence (LTSA) and disability pension with cumulative occupational mechanical exposures throughout working life. Analyses were censored for competing events and adjusted for multiple confounders. Results: During the follow-up period......, 970 persons (19.3%) had ≥1 episode of LTSA and 85 persons (1.7%) were granted a disability pension. Number of ton-, lifting- and kneeling-years showed an exposure-response association with increased risk of LTSA (P

Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

2010-01-01

The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

Cumulative risk and developmental health: an argument for the importance of a family-wide science.

Science.gov (United States)

Browne, Dillon T; Plamondon, Andre; Prime, Heather; Puente-Duran, Sofia; Wade, Mark

2015-01-01

A substantial body of research links social disadvantage and developmental health via a cascade running from poverty, to cumulative psychosocial risk, to disrupted family dynamics, to child biological regulatory systems and neurocognitive processing, and finally to morbidity across the lifespan. Most research in this area employs single-dyad or between-family methodology. While informative, there are limitations to this approach. Specifically, it is impossible to determine how risk alters psychosocial environments that are similar for all persons within a household, versus processes that are unique to particular children. This is important in light of literature citing the primacy of child-specific environments in driving developmental health. Methodologically speaking, there are both benefits and challenges to family-wide approaches that differentiate between- and within-family environments. This review describes literature linking cumulative risk and developmental health via family process, while articulating the importance of family-wide approaches. Areas of shortcoming and recommendations for a family-wide science are provided. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk of therapy-related leukaemia and preleukaemia after Hodgkin's disease. Relation to age, cumulative dose of alkylating agents, and time from chemotherapy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen-Bjergaard, J.; Specht, L.; Larsen, S.O.

1987-01-01

391 patients treated intensively for Hodgkin's disease were followed for up to 15 years to evaluate the risk of therapy-related acute non-lymphocytic leukaemia (t-ANLL) and preleukaemia. Only two independent factors, patient age and cumulative dose of alkylating agents, were related to the risk...... of t-ANLL. The hazard rate of t-ANLL was roughly proportional to the square of patient age and to the total cumulative dose of alkylating agents. In 320 patients treated with alkylating agents the cumulative risk of t-ANLL increased steadily from 1 year after the start of treatment and reached 13.......0% (SE 3.0) at 10 years after which time there were no further cases. Calculated from cessation of therapy with alkylating agents, however, the cumulative risk curve increased steeply during the first 1-2 years then gradually levelled out and no new cases were observed beyond 7 years. With a 15-year...

A method of quantitative risk assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, Young-Do; Ahn, Bum Jong

2005-01-01

Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, risk management based on a quantitative assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the quantitative risk assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of quantitative risk assessment may be useful for risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline

CUMULATIVE REPRODUCTIVE EFFECTS OF IN UTERO ADMINISTRATION OF A MIXTURE OF TEN “ANTIANDROGENS” IN MALE SD RATS: SYNERGY OR ADDITIVITY?

Science.gov (United States)

In 1996, the USEPA was charged under FQPA to consider the cumulative effects of chemicals in their risk assessments. We are conducting studies to provide a framework for assessing the cumulative effects of antiandrogens. In the current study, ten “antiandrogenic” chemicals were a...

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

be useful to develop case studies and/or standards of practice for interpreting lines of evidence. In addition, tools for cumulative risk assessment should be developed because contaminants are often released into stressed environments.

Cumulative occupational mechanical exposures during working life and risk of sickness absence and disability pension: prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundstrup, Emil; Hansen, Åse Marie; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Poulsen, Otto Melchior; Clausen, Thomas; Rugulies, Reiner; Møller, Anne; Andersen, Lars L

2017-09-01

Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the prospective association of cumulative mechanical exposure during working life with health-related labor market outcomes. Methods This prospective cohort study combines data from 5076 older workers (age 49-63 years) from the Copenhagen Aging and Midlife Biobank with a job exposure matrix and a national register containing information on social transfer payment. By coding individual job histories from the Danish version of ISCO-codes (International Standard Classification of Occupations), we calculated cumulative occupational mechanical exposures from a JEM for ton-years (lifting 1000 kg each day in one year), lifting-years (lifting loads weighing ≥20 kg >10 times each day in one year), kneeling-years (kneeling for one hour each day in one year) and vibration-years (whole-body vibration for one hour each day in one year). Cox-regression analyses estimated the relative risk of register-based long-term sickness absence (LTSA) and disability pension with cumulative occupational mechanical exposures throughout working life. Analyses were censored for competing events and adjusted for multiple confounders. Results During the follow-up period, 970 persons (19.3%) had ≥1 episode of LTSA and 85 persons (1.7%) were granted a disability pension. Number of ton-, lifting- and kneeling-years showed an exposure-response association with increased risk of LTSA (Ppension (HR 1.75 95% CI 1.01-3.04). Conclusions Cumulative occupational mechanical exposures during working life - such as lifting and kneeling work - increased the risk of LTSA. Importantly, being exposed to lifting increased the risk of disability pension.

Early Educational Intervention, Early Cumulative Risk, and the Early Home Environment as Predictors of Young Adult Outcomes within a High-Risk Sample

Science.gov (United States)

Pungello, Elizabeth P.; Kainz, Kirsten; Burchinal, Margaret; Wasik, Barbara H.; Sparling, Joseph J.; Ramey, Craig T.; Campbell, Frances A.

2010-01-01

The extent to which early educational intervention, early cumulative risk, and the early home environment were associated with young adult outcomes was investigated in a sample of 139 young adults (age 21) from high-risk families enrolled in randomized trials of early intervention. Positive effects of treatment were found for education attainment,…

[DIFFERENT APPROACHES FOR CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN LABORATORIES].

Science.gov (United States)

Caporossi, Lidia; Papaleo, Bruno; Capanna, Silvia; Calicchia, Sara; Marcellini, Laura; De Rosa, Mariangela; Castellano, Paola

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare the different approaches used for chemical risk assessment, in relation to the perception of riskfor operators, in some research laboratories of a hospital in Rome. All information regarding the chemicals used for the application of three algorithmic models for chemical risk assessment ("Movarisch", "Inforisk", "Archimede") were collected. An environmental and biological monitoring and a study on the combined exposure to multiple chemicals using the World Health Organization proposed steps were carried out. A questionnaire was prepared for the identification of risk perception. An estimation of chemical risk with algorithms was compared with data from monitoring: findings showed that estimated risk was higher than those identified with airborne or urine concentrations, always under their limit values. The study of multiple exposure showed a possible cumulative risk, in some cases, but the conditions of use (volume and time) often bring to a reduced one. The perception of risk attributed to the monitored hazardous substances showed a correct perception in all laboratories and for all workers, with regard to the substances manipulated.

Family Income, Cumulative Risk Exposure, and White Matter Structure in Middle Childhood

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander J. Dufford

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Family income is associated with gray matter morphometry in children, but little is known about the relationship between family income and white matter structure. In this paper, using Tract-Based Spatial Statistics, a whole brain, voxel-wise approach, we examined the relationship between family income (assessed by income-to-needs ratio and white matter organization in middle childhood (N = 27, M = 8.66 years. Results from a non-parametric, voxel-wise, multiple regression (threshold-free cluster enhancement, p < 0.05 FWE corrected indicated that lower family income was associated with lower white matter organization [assessed by fractional anisotropy (FA] for several clusters in white matter tracts involved in cognitive and emotional functions including fronto-limbic circuitry (uncinate fasciculus and cingulum bundle, association fibers (inferior longitudinal fasciculus, superior longitudinal fasciculus, and corticospinal tracts. Further, we examined the possibility that cumulative risk (CR exposure might function as one of the potential pathways by which family income influences neural outcomes. Using multiple regressions, we found lower FA in portions of these tracts, including those found in the left cingulum bundle and left superior longitudinal fasciculus, was significantly related to greater exposure to CR (β = -0.47, p < 0.05 and β = -0.45, p < 0.05.

Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Gerald G; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai M A

2017-09-01

Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits - fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity-addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for approaches

Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach

KAUST Repository

Singh, Gerald G.

2017-05-23

Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits — fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity—addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for

Development of a cumulative risk assessment for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory's waste area group 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burns, D.E.

1995-01-01

In 1989, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) was added to the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Priorities List of Superfund sites. A Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFA/CO) for the INEL was signed by the Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID), EPA, and the State of Idaho in December 1991. The goal of this agreement is to ensure that potential or actual INEL releases of hazardous substances to the environment are thoroughly investigated in accordance with the National Contingency Plan (NCP) and that appropriate response actions are taken as necessary to protect human health and the environment. The Test Reactor Area (TRA) is included as Waste Area Group (WAG) 2 of ten INEL WAGs identified in the FFA/CO. WAG 2 consists of 13 operable units (OUs) which include pits, tanks, rubble piles, ponds, cooling towers, wells, french drains, perched water and spill areas. OU 2-13 is the Comprehensive Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) for WAG 2. The study presented here is a preliminary evaluation of the comprehensive risk for WAG-2. This investigation will be used as the basis of the WAG-2 comprehensive baseline risk assessment (BRA), and it will serve as a model for other INEL comprehensive risk assessments. The WAG-2 preliminary risk evaluation consisted of two broad phases. These phases were (1) a site and contaminant screening that was intended to support the identification of COPCs and risk assessment data gaps, and (2) an exposure pathway analysis that evaluated the comprehensive human health risks associated with WAG-2. The primary purposes of the investigation were to screen WAG-2 release sites and contaminants, and to identify risk assessment data gaps, so the investigation will be referred to as the WAG-2 Screening and Data Gap Analysis (SDGA) for the remainder of this report

Nonparametric Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Functions for Competing Risks Data with Missing Cause of Failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Effraimidis, Georgios; Dahl, Christian Møller

In this paper, we develop a fully nonparametric approach for the estimation of the cumulative incidence function with Missing At Random right-censored competing risks data. We obtain results on the pointwise asymptotic normality as well as the uniform convergence rate of the proposed nonparametric...

32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16... § 651.16 Cumulative impacts. (a) NEPA analyses must assess cumulative effects, which are the impact on the environment resulting from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present...

Cumulative effective and individual organ dose levels in paediatric patients undergoing multiple catheterizations for congenital heart disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, T.P.; Brennan, P.C.; Ryan, E.

2017-01-01

This study examines the cumulative radiation dose levels received by a group of children who underwent multiple cardiac catheterisation procedures during the investigation and management of congenital heart disease (CHD). The purpose is to calculate cumulative doses, identify higher dose individuals, outline the inconsistencies with risk assessment and encourage the establishment of dose databases in order to facilitate the longitudinal research necessary to better understand health risks. A retrospective review of patient records for 117 paediatric patients who have undergone two or more cardiac catheterizations for the investigation of CHD was undertaken. This cohort consisted of patients who were catheterised over a period from September 2002 to August 2014. The age distribution was from newborn to 17 y. Archived kerma-area product (P KA ) and fluoroscopy time (T) readings were retrieved and analysed. Cumulative effective and individual organ doses were determined. The cumulative P KA levels ranged from 1.8 to 651.2 Gycm 2 , whilst cumulative effective dose levels varied from 2 to 259 mSv. The cumulative fluoroscopy time was shown to vary from 8.1 to 193.5 min. Median cumulative organ doses ranged from 3 to 94 mGy. Cumulative effective dose levels are highly variable but may exceed 250 mSv. Individual organ and effective dose measurements remain useful for comparison purposes between institutions although current methodologies used for determining lifetime risks are inadequate. (authors)

Cumulative environmental risk in substance abusing women: early intervention, parenting stress, child abuse potential and child development.

Science.gov (United States)

Nair, Prasanna; Schuler, Maureen E; Black, Maureen M; Kettinger, Laurie; Harrington, Donna

2003-09-01

To assess the relationship between cumulative environmental risks and early intervention, parenting attitudes, potential for child abuse and child development in substance abusing mothers. We studied 161 substance-abusing women, from a randomized longitudinal study of a home based early intervention, who had custody of their children through 18 months. The intervention group received weekly home visits in the first 6 months and biweekly visits from 6 to 18 months. Parenting stress and child abuse potential were assessed at 6 and 18 months postpartum. Children's mental and motor development (Bayley MDI and PDI) and language development (REEL) were assessed at 6, 12, and 18 months postpartum. Ten maternal risk factors were assessed: maternal depression, domestic violence, nondomestic violence, family size, incarceration, no significant other in home, negative life events, psychiatric problems, homelessness, and severity of drug use. Level of risk was recoded into four categories (2 or less, 3, 4, and 5 or more), which had adequate cell sizes for repeated measures analysis. Repeated measures analyses were run to examine how level of risk and group (intervention or control) were related to parenting stress, child abuse potential, and children's mental, motor and language development over time. Parenting stress and child abuse potential were higher for women with five risks or more compared with women who had four or fewer risks; children's mental, motor, and language development were not related to level of risk. Children in the intervention group had significantly higher scores on the PDI at 6 and 18 months (107.4 vs. 103.6 and 101.1 vs. 97.2) and had marginally better scores on the MDI at 6 and 12 months (107.7 vs. 104.2 and 103.6 vs. 100.1), compared to the control group. Compared to drug-abusing women with fewer than five risks, women with five or more risks found parenting more stressful and indicated greater inclination towards abusive and neglectful behavior

Risk assessment of student performance in the International Foundations of Medicine Clinical Science Examination by the use of statistical modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David MC

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Michael C David,1 Diann S Eley,2 Jennifer Schafer,2 Leo Davies,3 1School of Public Health, 2School of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Herston, QLD, 3Sydney Medical School, The University of Sydney, NSW, Australia Purpose: The primary aim of this study was to assess the predictive validity of cumulative grade point average (GPA for performance in the International Foundations of Medicine (IFOM Clinical Science Examination (CSE. A secondary aim was to develop a strategy for identifying students at risk of performing poorly in the IFOM CSE as determined by the National Board of Medical Examiners’ International Standard of Competence. Methods: Final year medical students from an Australian university medical school took the IFOM CSE as a formative assessment. Measures included overall IFOM CSE score as the dependent variable, cumulative GPA as the predictor, and the factors age, gender, year of enrollment, international or domestic status of student, and language spoken at home as covariates. Multivariable linear regression was used to measure predictor and covariate effects. Optimal thresholds of risk assessment were based on receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: Cumulative GPA (nonstandardized regression coefficient [B]: 81.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 68.13 to 95.53 and international status (B: –37.40; 95% CI: –57.85 to –16.96 from 427 students were found to be statistically associated with increased IFOM CSE ­performance. Cumulative GPAs of 5.30 (area under ROC [AROC]: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.72 to 0.82 and 4.90 (AROC: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.78 were identified as being thresholds of significant risk for domestic and international students, respectively. Conclusion: Using cumulative GPA as a predictor of IFOM CSE performance and accommodating for differences in international status, it is possible to identify students who are at risk of failing to satisfy the National Board of Medical Examiners’ International

Addressing cumulative effects through strategic environmental assessment: a case study of small hydro development in Newfoundland, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonnell, S.; Storey, K.

2000-01-01

Environmental assessment (EA) is widely used as a means of incorporating environmental considerations into decision-making, primarily at the project level. The scope of EA has been expanded considerably in recent years to include earlier stages of the decision-making process, namely, policies, plans and programmes. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) facilitates a planning approach to addressing the overall, cumulative effects of the projects that occur as a result of these decisions. This paper demonstrates the potential benefits of SEA in the assessment and management of cumulative effects, using a case study of recent hydroelectric development planning in Newfoundland, Canada. It goes on to illustrate how SEA could be used to address potential cumulative effects at the various stages of such a decision-making process. Through the case study, the paper also explores a number of issues in the implementation of such a planning approach. (author)

Managing cumulative impacts: A key to sustainability?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunsaker, C.T.

1994-12-31

This paper addresses how science can be more effectively used in creating policy to manage cumulative effects on ecosystems. The paper focuses on the scientific techniques that we have to identify and to assess cumulative impacts on ecosystems. The term ``sustainable development`` was brought into common use by the World Commission on Environment and Development (The Brundtland Commission) in 1987. The Brundtland Commission report highlighted the need to simultaneously address developmental and environmental imperatives simultaneously by calling for development that ``meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the needs of future generations.`` We cannot claim to be working toward sustainable development until we can quantitatively assess cumulative impacts on the environment: The two concepts are inextricibally linked in that the elusiveness of cumulative effects likely has the greatest potential of keeping us from achieving sustainability. In this paper, assessment and management frameworks relevant to cumulative impacts are discussed along with recent literature on how to improve such assessments. When possible, examples are given for marine ecosystems.

Probabilistic framework for assessing the arsenic exposure risk from cooked fish consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, Min-Pei; Wu, Chiu-Hua; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Chen, Wei-Yu; Chio, Chia-Pin; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Chung-Min

2014-12-01

Geogenic arsenic (As) contamination of groundwater is a major ecological and human health problem in southwestern and northeastern coastal areas of Taiwan. Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the human health risks from consuming raw and cooked fish that were cultured in groundwater As-contaminated ponds in Taiwan by linking a physiologically based pharmacokinetics model and a Weibull dose-response model. Results indicate that As levels in baked, fried, and grilled fish were higher than those of raw fish. Frying resulted in the greatest increase in As concentration, followed by grilling, with baking affecting the As concentration the least. Simulation results show that, following consumption of baked As-contaminated fish, the health risk to humans is fish is unlikely to pose a significant risk to human health. However, contaminated fish cooked by frying resulted in significant health risks, showing the highest cumulative incidence ratios of liver cancer. We also show that males have higher cumulative incidence ratio of liver cancer than females. We found that although cooking resulted in an increase for As levels in As-contaminated fish, the risk to human health of consuming baked fish is nevertheless acceptable. We suggest the adoption of baking as a cooking method and warn against frying As-contaminated fish. We conclude that the concentration of contaminants after cooking should be taken into consideration when assessing the risk to human health.

Observed Sensitivity during Family Interactions and Cumulative Risk: A Study of Multiple Dyads per Family

Science.gov (United States)

Browne, Dillon T.; Leckie, George; Prime, Heather; Perlman, Michal; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

2016-01-01

The present study sought to investigate the family, individual, and dyad-specific contributions to observed cognitive sensitivity during family interactions. Moreover, the influence of cumulative risk on sensitivity at the aforementioned levels of the family was examined. Mothers and 2 children per family were observed interacting in a round robin…

The effects of cumulative risks and promotive factors on urban adolescent alcohol and other drug use: a longitudinal study of resiliency.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostaszewski, Krzysztof; Zimmerman, Marc A

2006-12-01

Resiliency theory provides a conceptual framework for studying why some youth exposed to risk factors do not develop the negative behaviors they predict. The purpose of this study was to test compensatory and protective models of resiliency in a longitudinal sample of urban adolescents (80% African American). The data were from Years 1 (9th grade) and 4 (12th grade). The study examined effects of cumulative risk and promotive factors on adolescent polydrug use including alcohol, tobacco and marijuana. Cumulative measures of risk/promotive factors represented individual characteristics, peer influence, and parental/familial influences. After controlling for demographics, results of multiple regression of polydrug use support the compensatory model of resiliency both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Promotive factors were also found to have compensatory effects on change in adolescent polydrug use. The protective model of resiliency evidenced cross-sectionally was not supported in longitudinal analysis. The findings support resiliency theory and the use of cumulative risk/promotive measures in resiliency research. Implications focused on utilizing multiple assets and resources in prevention programming are discussed.

Risk assessment of student performance in the International Foundations of Medicine Clinical Science Examination by the use of statistical modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

David, Michael C; Eley, Diann S; Schafer, Jennifer; Davies, Leo

2016-01-01

The primary aim of this study was to assess the predictive validity of cumulative grade point average (GPA) for performance in the International Foundations of Medicine (IFOM) Clinical Science Examination (CSE). A secondary aim was to develop a strategy for identifying students at risk of performing poorly in the IFOM CSE as determined by the National Board of Medical Examiners' International Standard of Competence. Final year medical students from an Australian university medical school took the IFOM CSE as a formative assessment. Measures included overall IFOM CSE score as the dependent variable, cumulative GPA as the predictor, and the factors age, gender, year of enrollment, international or domestic status of student, and language spoken at home as covariates. Multivariable linear regression was used to measure predictor and covariate effects. Optimal thresholds of risk assessment were based on receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Cumulative GPA (nonstandardized regression coefficient [B]: 81.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 68.13 to 95.53) and international status (B: -37.40; 95% CI: -57.85 to -16.96) from 427 students were found to be statistically associated with increased IFOM CSE performance. Cumulative GPAs of 5.30 (area under ROC [AROC]: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.72 to 0.82) and 4.90 (AROC: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.78) were identified as being thresholds of significant risk for domestic and international students, respectively. Using cumulative GPA as a predictor of IFOM CSE performance and accommodating for differences in international status, it is possible to identify students who are at risk of failing to satisfy the National Board of Medical Examiners' International Standard of Competence.

Is the cluster risk model of parental adversities better than the cumulative risk model as an indicator of childhood physical abuse?: findings from two representative community surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuller-Thomson, E; Sawyer, J-L

2014-01-01

Screening strategies for childhood physical abuse (CPA) need to be improved in order to identify those most at risk. This study uses two regionally representative community samples to examine whether a cluster or cumulative model of risk indicators (i.e. parental divorce, parental unemployment, and parental addictions) explains a larger proportion of the variation in CPA. Data were drawn from Statistics Canada's National Population Health Survey (1994-1995) and Canadian Community Health Survey 3.1 (2005). Response rates were greater than 80% in both samples. Each survey had approximately 13,000 respondents aged 18 and over who answered questions about the above adverse childhood experiences. A gradient was shown with similar outcomes in each data set. Only 3.4% of adults who experienced none of the three risk indicators reported they had been physically abused during childhood or adolescence. The prevalence of CPA was greater among those who experienced parental divorce alone (8.3%-10.7%), parental unemployment alone (8.9%-9.7%) or parental addictions alone (18.0%-19.5%). When all three risk indicators were present, the prevalence of CPA ranged from 36.0%-41.0% and the age-sex-race adjusted odds were greater than 15 times that of individuals with none of the three risk indicators. The cluster model explained a statistically significantly larger proportion of the variation than the cumulative model although the difference between the two models was modest. For the purposes of parsimony, the cumulative model may be the better alternative. Adults who were exposed to two or more childhood risk indicators were much more likely to report that they were physically abused during their childhood than those with only one or no risk factors. Medical professionals may use this information on cumulative risk factors to more effectively target screening for potential CPA. Future research should include prospective studies. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Serious, Minor, and Non-Delinquents in Early Adolescence : The Impact of Cumulative Risk and Promotive Factors. The TRAILS Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Laan, A.M.; Veenstra, R.; Bogaerts, S.; Verhulst, F.C.; Ormel, J.

This study uses a social-ecological approach to the development of delinquency. The authors emphasize that a balance between eliminating risk and enhancing protection across domains is essential in reducing problems and promoting competence. The cumulative risk and promotive effects of temperament,

Serious, minor, and non-delinquents in early adolescence: The impact of cumulative risk and promotive factors. The TRAILS study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.M. van der Laan (André); R. Veenstra (René); S. Bogaerts (Stefan); F.C. Verhulst (Frank); J. Ormel (Johan Hans)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis study uses a social-ecological approach to the development of delinquency. The authors emphasize that a balance between eliminating risk and enhancing protection across domains is essential in reducing problems and promoting competence. The cumulative risk and promotive effects of

Potential Health Risks Posed by Plant-Derived Cumulative Neurotoxic Bufadienolides in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christo Botha

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Bufadienolide-type cardiac glycosides have a worldwide distribution and are mainly synthesized by plants, but there are also animal sources. In South Africa, members of three genera of the Crassulaceae (Cotyledon, Tylecodon and Kalanchoe cause a unique chronic form of cardiac glycoside poisoning, predominantly in small stock. This paretic/paralytic condition is referred to as “krimpsiekte”, cotyledonosis or “nenta”. “Krimpsiekte” is a plant poisoning only reported from South Africa and is regarded as the most important plant poisoning of small stock in the semi-arid Little Karoo and southern fringes of the Great Karoo. The toxicosis is caused by cumulative bufadienolides which have neurotoxic properties. Four types of cumulative neurotoxic bufadienolides, namely cotyledoside, and the tyledosides, orbicusides and lanceotoxins, have been isolated. Based on the structure activity relationships and certain toxicokinetic parameters possible reasons for their accumulation are presented. Consumption of edible tissues from animals that have ingested these plants poses a potential risk to humans.

Human biomonitoring of phthalate exposure in Austrian children and adults and cumulative risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartmann, Christina; Uhl, Maria; Weiss, Stefan; Koch, Holger M; Scharf, Sigrid; König, Jürgen

2015-07-01

children. The execution of a cumulative risk assessment based on Hazard Indices showed cause for concern mainly for children, as well as in rare cases for adults. Although phthalate exposure seems to have decreased in previous years, the wide distribution and existing exceedances of acceptable levels indicate that phthalate exposure should be further monitored in order to identify exposure sources and enable appropriate minimisation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Effects of cumulative risk on behavioral and psychological well-being in first grade: moderation by neighborhood context.

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Julie; Caughy, Margaret; Nettles, Saundra M; O'Campo, Patricia J

2010-10-01

This study builds upon existing research by examining whether risk indices for child psychological well-being behave in the same way in different types of neighborhoods. Specifically, we sought to determine if neighborhood characteristics acted to exacerbate or, alternatively, to buffer risk factors at the family and/or child level. Families with a child entering first grade in Fall 2002 were recruited from Baltimore City neighborhoods, defined as census block groups. This study included 405 children, and data came from an interview with the primary caregiver and an assessment of the first grader. The dependent variables were externalizing behavior and internalizing problems. A family risk index consisting of 13 measures, and a child risk index consisting of three measures were the main independent variables of interest. We examined the effects of these indices on child psychological well-being and behavior across two neighborhood characteristics: neighborhood potential for community involvement with children and neighborhood negative social climate. Results of multivariate analyses indicated that cumulative family risk was associated with an increase in both internalizing and externalizing behavior problems. Perceived negative social climate moderated the effect of family risks on behavior problems such that more risk was associated with a larger increment in both externalizing behavior problems and psychological problems for children living in high versus low risk neighborhoods. These findings further emphasize the importance of considering neighborhood context in the study of child psychological well-being. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

2015-07-01

Full Text Available With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.

Single and Cumulative Relations of Social Risk Factors with Children's Dental Health and Care-Utilization Within Regions of the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Alyssa J; Gromoske, Andrea N; Olson, Melissa A; Chaffin, Jeffrey G

2016-03-01

The purpose is to examine the relation of social risk factors, and the cumulative burden of social risk factors, on parent-reported dental health and dental care-seeking behavior. National Survey of Children's Health data (2011-2012) were analyzed for US children by Title V Block Grant regions. Multivariate logistic regressions were estimated for ten social risk factors, as well as a cumulative risk index, to find any associations with poor condition of teeth, presence of dental caries, and no dental care visits. Almost all of the risk factors were significantly associated with poor condition of teeth and presence of dental caries for the US. Models associating no dental care visits suggested that low family income (OR 1.58), poor maternal mental health (OR 1.54), high school education or less (OR 1.34), and multi-racial/other race (OR 1.18) were significant factors for the US. Regional variation existed for those risk factors and their association with the outcomes, but income, education, and poor maternal mental health consistently played a significant role in adverse outcomes. The cumulative risk index was strongly related to poor oral health outcomes, with a weaker relationship to dental care utilization. US children experiencing certain social risk factors, such as low family income, high school education or less, and poor maternal mental health, are likely to be at greater risk for poor dental health and low levels of dental-care seeking behavior. Children experiencing multiple social risks are at greater risk for poor oral outcomes than children who experience fewer social risks. An approach that involves the social determinants of health is needed to address these issues.

Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

2013-01-01

Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

Serious, Minor, and Non-Delinquents in Early Adolescence: The Impact of Cumulative Risk and Promotive Factors. The TRAILS Study

Science.gov (United States)

van der Laan, Andre M.; Veenstra, Rene; Bogaerts, Stefan; Verhulst, Frank C.; Ormel, Johan

2010-01-01

This study uses a social-ecological approach to the development of delinquency. The authors emphasize that a balance between eliminating risk and enhancing protection across domains is essential in reducing problems and promoting competence. The cumulative risk and promotive effects of temperament, family and school factors in preadolescence were…

Application of the ELDO approach to assess cumulative eye lens doses for interventional cardiologists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farah, J.; Jacob, S.; Clairand, I.; Struelens, L.; Vanhavere, F.; Auvinen, A.; Koukorava, C.; Schnelzer, M.

2015-01-01

In preparation of a large European epidemiological study on the relation between eye lens dose and the occurrence of lens opacities, the European ELDO project focused on the development of practical methods to estimate retrospectively cumulative eye lens dose for interventional medical professionals exposed to radiation. The present paper applies one of the ELDO approaches, correlating eye lens dose to whole-body doses, to assess cumulative eye lens dose for 14 different Finnish interventional cardiologists for whom annual whole-body dose records were available for their entire working period. The estimated cumulative left and right eye lens dose ranged from 8 to 264 mSv and 6 to 225 mSv, respectively. In addition, calculations showed annual eye lens doses sometimes exceeding the new ICRP annual limit of 20 mSv. The work also highlights the large uncertainties associated with the application of such an approach proving the need for dedicated dosimetry systems in the routine monitoring of the eye lens dose. (authors)

Towards personalized screening: Cumulative risk of breast cancer screening outcomes in women with and without a first-degree relative with a history of breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Ripping, Theodora Maria; Hubbard, Rebecca A; Otten, Johannes D M; den Heeten, Gerard J; Verbeek, André L M; Broeders, Mireille J M

2016-04-01

Several reviews have estimated the balance of benefits and harms of mammographic screening in the general population. The balance may, however, differ between individuals with and without family history. Therefore, our aim is to assess the cumulative risk of screening outcomes; screen-detected breast cancer, interval cancer, and false-positive results, in women screenees aged 50-75 and 40-75, with and without a first-degree relative with a history of breast cancer at the start of screening. Data on screening attendance, recall and breast cancer detection were collected for each woman living in Nijmegen (The Netherlands) since 1975. We used a discrete time survival model to calculate the cumulative probability of each major screening outcome over 19 screening rounds. Women with a family history of breast cancer had a higher risk of all screening outcomes. For women screened from age 50-75, the cumulative risk of screen-detected breast cancer, interval cancer and false-positive results were 9.0, 4.4 and 11.1% for women with a family history and 6.3, 2.7 and 7.3% for women without a family history, respectively. The results for women 40-75 followed the same pattern for women screened 50-75 for cancer outcomes, but were almost doubled for false-positive results. To conclude, women with a first-degree relative with a history of breast cancer are more likely to experience benefits and harms of screening than women without a family history. To complete the balance and provide risk-based screening recommendations, the breast cancer mortality reduction and overdiagnosis should be estimated for family history subgroups. © 2015 UICC.

Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence of health-related events in competing risk settings: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

2018-01-01

Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence in competing risks (CRs) settings. The extent of overestimation (or its clinical significance) has been questioned, and CRs methods are infrequently used. This meta-analysis compares the Kaplan-Meier method to the cumulative incidence function (CIF), a CRs method. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, Web of Science (1992-2016), and article bibliographies for studies estimating cumulative incidence using the Kaplan-Meier method and CIF. For studies with sufficient data, we calculated pooled risk ratios (RRs) comparing Kaplan-Meier and CIF estimates using DerSimonian and Laird random effects models. We performed stratified meta-analyses by clinical area, rate of CRs (CRs/events of interest), and follow-up time. Of 2,192 identified abstracts, we included 77 studies in the systematic review and meta-analyzed 55. The pooled RR demonstrated the Kaplan-Meier estimate was 1.41 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36, 1.47] times higher than the CIF. Overestimation was highest among studies with high rates of CRs [RR = 2.36 (95% CI: 1.79, 3.12)], studies related to hepatology [RR = 2.60 (95% CI: 2.12, 3.19)], and obstetrics and gynecology [RR = 1.84 (95% CI: 1.52, 2.23)]. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the cumulative incidence across 10 clinical areas. Using CRs methods will ensure accurate results inform clinical and policy decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

TH-AB-207A-04: Assessment of Patients’ Cumulative Effective Dose From CT Examinations

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Bostani, M; Cagnon, C; Sepahdari, A; Beckett, K; Oshiro, T; McNitt-Gray, M [UCLA School of Medicine, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: The Joint Commission requires institutions to consider patient’s age and recent imaging exams when deciding on the most appropriate type of imaging exam. Additionally, knowing patient’s imaging history can help prevent duplicate scans. Radiation dose management software affords new opportunities to identify and utilize patients with high cumulative doses as one proxy for subsequent review of imaging history and opportunities in avoiding redundant exams. Methods: Using dose management software (Radimetrics, Bayer Healthcare) a total of 72073 CT examinations performed from Jan 2015 to Jan 2016 were examined to categorize patients with a cumulative effective dose of 100 mSv and above. This threshold was selected based on epidemiological studies on populations exposed to radiation, which demonstrate a statistical increase of cancer risk at doses above 100 mSv. Histories of patients with highest cumulative dose and highest number of exams were further investigated by a Radiologist for appropriateness of recurrent studies and potential opportunities for reduction. Results: Out of 34762 patients, 927 (2.7%) were identified with a cumulative dose of 100 mSv and above. The highest cumulative dose (842 mSv) belonged to an oncology patient who underwent 2 diagnostic exams and 9 interventional ablative CT guided procedures. The patient with highest number of exams (56 counts) and cumulative dose of 170 mSv was a 17 year old trauma patient. An imaging history review of these two patients did not suggest any superfluous scans. Conclusion: Our limited pilot study suggests that recurrent CT exams for patients with oncologic or severe trauma history may be warranted and appropriate. As a result, for future studies we will be focusing on high dose patient cohorts not associated with oncology or severe trauma. Additionally, the review process itself has suggested areas for potential improvement in patient care, including improved documentation and Radiologist involvement

TH-AB-207A-04: Assessment of Patients’ Cumulative Effective Dose From CT Examinations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bostani, M; Cagnon, C; Sepahdari, A; Beckett, K; Oshiro, T; McNitt-Gray, M

2016-01-01

Purpose: The Joint Commission requires institutions to consider patient’s age and recent imaging exams when deciding on the most appropriate type of imaging exam. Additionally, knowing patient’s imaging history can help prevent duplicate scans. Radiation dose management software affords new opportunities to identify and utilize patients with high cumulative doses as one proxy for subsequent review of imaging history and opportunities in avoiding redundant exams. Methods: Using dose management software (Radimetrics, Bayer Healthcare) a total of 72073 CT examinations performed from Jan 2015 to Jan 2016 were examined to categorize patients with a cumulative effective dose of 100 mSv and above. This threshold was selected based on epidemiological studies on populations exposed to radiation, which demonstrate a statistical increase of cancer risk at doses above 100 mSv. Histories of patients with highest cumulative dose and highest number of exams were further investigated by a Radiologist for appropriateness of recurrent studies and potential opportunities for reduction. Results: Out of 34762 patients, 927 (2.7%) were identified with a cumulative dose of 100 mSv and above. The highest cumulative dose (842 mSv) belonged to an oncology patient who underwent 2 diagnostic exams and 9 interventional ablative CT guided procedures. The patient with highest number of exams (56 counts) and cumulative dose of 170 mSv was a 17 year old trauma patient. An imaging history review of these two patients did not suggest any superfluous scans. Conclusion: Our limited pilot study suggests that recurrent CT exams for patients with oncologic or severe trauma history may be warranted and appropriate. As a result, for future studies we will be focusing on high dose patient cohorts not associated with oncology or severe trauma. Additionally, the review process itself has suggested areas for potential improvement in patient care, including improved documentation and Radiologist involvement

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

Assessing ergonomic risks of software: Development of the SEAT.

Science.gov (United States)

Peres, S Camille; Mehta, Ranjana K; Ritchey, Paul

2017-03-01

Software utilizing interaction designs that require extensive dragging or clicking of icons may increase users' risks for upper extremity cumulative trauma disorders. The purpose of this research is to develop a Self-report Ergonomic Assessment Tool (SEAT) for assessing the risks of software interaction designs and facilitate mitigation of those risks. A 28-item self-report measure was developed by combining and modifying items from existing industrial ergonomic tools. Data were collected from 166 participants after they completed four different tasks that varied by method of input (touch or keyboard and mouse) and type of task (selecting or typing). Principal component analysis found distinct factors associated with stress (i.e., demands) and strain (i.e., response). Repeated measures analyses of variance showed that participants could discriminate the different strain induced by the input methods and tasks. However, participants' ability to discriminate between the stressors associated with that strain was mixed. Further validation of the SEAT is necessary but these results indicate that the SEAT may be a viable method of assessing ergonomics risks presented by software design. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Framework to Assess the Cumulative Hydrological Impacts of Dams on flow Regime

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Wang, D.

2016-12-01

In this study we proposed a framework to assess the cumulative impact of dams on hydrological regime, and the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on flow regime in Yangtze River were investigated with the framework. We reconstructed the unregulated flow series to compare with the regulated flow series in the same period. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration parameters were used to examine the hydrological regime change. Among IHA parameters, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Principal Components Analysis identified the representative indicators of hydrological alterations. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit showed that the reservoir also changed the seasonal regime of the flows in autumn and winter. Annual extreme flows and October flows changes lead to negative ecological implications downstream from the Three Gorges Dam. Ecological operation for the Three Gorges Dam is necessary to mitigate the negative effects on the river ecosystem in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The framework proposed here could be a robust method to assess the cumulative impacts of reservoir operation.

Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

2017-06-01

Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

Direct comparison of risk-adjusted and non-risk-adjusted CUSUM analyses of coronary artery bypass surgery outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Novick, Richard J; Fox, Stephanie A; Stitt, Larry W; Forbes, Thomas L; Steiner, Stefan

2006-08-01

We previously applied non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods to analyze coronary bypass outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the incremental advantage of risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods in this setting. Prospective data were collected in 793 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass grafting performed by a single surgeon during a period of 5 years. The composite occurrence of an "adverse outcome" included mortality or any of 10 major complications. An institutional logistic regression model for adverse outcome was developed by using 2608 contemporaneous patients undergoing coronary bypass. The predicted risk of adverse outcome in each of the surgeon's 793 patients was then calculated. A risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was then generated after specifying control limits and odds ratio. This risk-adjusted curve was compared with the non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve, and the clinical significance of this difference was assessed. The surgeon's adverse outcome rate was 96 of 793 (12.1%) versus 270 of 1815 (14.9%) for all the other institution's surgeons combined (P = .06). The non-risk-adjusted curve reached below the lower control limit, signifying excellent outcomes between cases 164 and 313, 323 and 407, and 667 and 793, but transgressed the upper limit between cases 461 and 478. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve never transgressed the upper control limit, signifying that cases preceding and including 461 to 478 were at an increased predicted risk. Furthermore, if the risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was reset to zero whenever a control limit was reached, it still signaled a decrease in adverse outcome at 166, 653, and 782 cases. Risk-adjusted cumulative sum techniques provide incremental advantages over non-risk-adjusted methods by not signaling a decrement in performance when preoperative patient risk is high.

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

A Conceptual Framework for the Assessment of Cumulative Exposure to Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial Scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kihal-Talantikite Wahida

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Many epidemiological studies examining long-term health effects of exposure to air pollutants have characterized exposure by the outdoor air concentrations at sites that may be distant to subjects’ residences at different points in time. The temporal and spatial mobility of subjects and the spatial scale of exposure assessment could thus lead to misclassification in the cumulative exposure estimation. This paper attempts to fill the gap regarding cumulative exposure assessment to air pollution at a fine spatial scale in epidemiological studies investigating long-term health effects. We propose a conceptual framework showing how major difficulties in cumulative long-term exposure assessment could be surmounted. We then illustrate this conceptual model on the case of exposure to NO2 following two steps: (i retrospective reconstitution of NO2 concentrations at a fine spatial scale; and (ii a novel approach to assigning the time-relevant exposure estimates at the census block level, using all available data on residential mobility throughout a 10- to 20-year period prior to that for which the health events are to be detected. Our conceptual framework is both flexible and convenient for the needs of different epidemiological study designs.

A Conceptual Framework for the Assessment of Cumulative Exposure to Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Wahida, Kihal-Talantikite; Padilla, Cindy M.; Denis, Zmirou-Navier; Olivier, Blanchard; Géraldine, Le Nir; Philippe, Quenel; Séverine, Deguen

2016-01-01

Many epidemiological studies examining long-term health effects of exposure to air pollutants have characterized exposure by the outdoor air concentrations at sites that may be distant to subjects’ residences at different points in time. The temporal and spatial mobility of subjects and the spatial scale of exposure assessment could thus lead to misclassification in the cumulative exposure estimation. This paper attempts to fill the gap regarding cumulative exposure assessment to air pollution at a fine spatial scale in epidemiological studies investigating long-term health effects. We propose a conceptual framework showing how major difficulties in cumulative long-term exposure assessment could be surmounted. We then illustrate this conceptual model on the case of exposure to NO2 following two steps: (i) retrospective reconstitution of NO2 concentrations at a fine spatial scale; and (ii) a novel approach to assigning the time-relevant exposure estimates at the census block level, using all available data on residential mobility throughout a 10- to 20-year period prior to that for which the health events are to be detected. Our conceptual framework is both flexible and convenient for the needs of different epidemiological study designs. PMID:26999170

Autoantibodies to IA-2beta improve diabetes risk assessment in high-risk relatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Achenbach, P; Bonifacio, E; Williams, A J K

2008-01-01

-positive participants (median age 12.1 years; 57% male), 113 developed diabetes (5 year cumulative risk 56%), and 148 were also GADA-positive and IAA-positive (4Ab-positive). IA2betaA were detected in 137 (65%) ICA/IA2A-positive participants and were associated with an increased 5 year diabetes risk (IA2beta......A-positive 65 vs 39% in IA2betaA-negative, p=0.0002). The effect was most marked in 4Ab-positive relatives (72% vs 52%, p=0.003). Metabolic testing further refined risk assessment. Among 101 4Ab-positive relatives with IA2betaA, the 5 year risk was 94% in those with a low FPIR (vs 50% in those with a normal...... FPIR, p4Ab/IA2betaA-positive participants with a low FPIR was 1.5 years. Multivariate analysis confirmed IA2betaA status, antibody number, young...

Not so Black and White: environmental justice and cumulative impact assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krieg, Eric J.; Faber, Daniel R.

2004-01-01

not typically identified as meeting EJ criteria (in demographic terms) also face more significant ecological hazards. Thus, the strict bifurcation of communities into categories of Environmental Justice and Non-Environmental Justice is problematic, and poses a serious dilemma for policy makers, public health officials, and community activists. To overcome this challenge requires the adoption of a cumulative environmental justice impact assessment (CEJIA), which in addition to the demographic characteristics of a community, also takes into account the total environmental burden and related health impacts upon residents. Furthermore, through the adoption of the precautionary principle, source reduction, and alternative forms of ''cleaner'' production, environmental justice advocates must work for policies which reduce the environmental threat for the full range of communities, as well as their own

Assessment of Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) Risk for 3 Different Tasks Constructing and Repairing Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) Blankets, Preparing the Dough for a Pizza, and Operating the Becton-Dickinson FACSAria Flow Cytometer

Science.gov (United States)

Gentzler, Marc; Kline, Martin; Palmer, Andrew; Terrone, Mark

2007-01-01

The Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) risks for three different tasks using McCauley-Bell and Badiru's (1993) formula based on task, personal, and organizational factors were examined. For the Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) blanket task, the results showed that the task, personal, and organizational risks were at about the same level. The personal risk factors for this task were evaluated using a hypothetical female employee age 52. For the pizza dough task, it was shown that the organizational risk was particularly high, with task related factors also at quite dangerous levels. On the other hand, there was a very low level of personal risk factors, based on a female age 17. The flow cytometer task was assessed with three different participants, a11 of whom had quite disparate levels of personal risk, which slightly affected the overall CTD risk. This reveals how individual difference variables certainly need to be considered. The task and organizational risks for this task were rated at about the same moderate level. The overall CTD risk averaged across the three participants was .335, indicating some risk. Compruing across the tasks revealed that the pizza dough task created the greatest overall CTD risk by far (.568), with the MLI (.325) and flow cytometer task (.335) having some risk associated with them. Future research should look into different tasks for more of a comparison

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

2016-01-01

Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

Toward the breast screening balance sheet: cumulative risk of false positives for annual versus biennial mammograms commencing at age 40 or 50.

Science.gov (United States)

Winch, Caleb J; Sherman, Kerry A; Boyages, John

2015-01-01

This study aimed to: (1) Estimate cumulative risk of recall from breast screening where no cancer is detected (a harm) in Australia; (2) Compare women screened annually versus biennially, commencing age 40 versus 50; and (3) Compare with international findings. At the no-cost metropolitan program studied, women attended biennial screening, but were offered annual screening if regarded at elevated risk for breast cancer. The cumulative risk of at least one recall was estimated using discrete-time survival analysis. Cancer detection statistics were computed. In total, 801,636 mammograms were undertaken in 231,824 women. Over 10 years, cumulative risk of recall was 13.3 % (95 % CI 12.7-13.8) for those screened biennially, and 19.9 % (CI 16.6-23.2) for those screened annually from age 50-51. Cumulative risk of complex false positive involving a biopsy was 3.1 % (CI 2.9-3.4) and 5.0 % (CI 3.4-6.6), respectively. From age 40-41, the risk of recall was 15.1 % (CI 14.3-16.0) and 22.5 % (CI 17.9-27.1) for biennial and annual screening, respectively. Corresponding rates of complex false positive were 3.3 % (CI 2.9-3.8) and 6.3 % (CI 3.4-9.1). Over 10 mammograms, invasive cancer was detected in 3.4 % (CI 3.3-3.5) and ductal carcinoma in situ in 0.7 % (CI 0.6-0.7) of women, with a non-significant trend toward a larger proportion of Tis and T1N0 cancers in women screened annually (74.5 %) versus biennially (70.1 %), χ (2) = 2.77, p = 0.10. Cancer detection was comparable to international findings. Recall risk was equal to European estimates for women screening from 50 and lower for screening from 40. Recall risk was half of United States' rates across start age and rescreening interval categories. Future benefit/harm balance sheets may be useful for communicating these findings to women.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Selck, Henriette; Adamsen, Peter B; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary T; Bruce, Peter K H; Burton, G Allen; Butts, Michael B; Boegh, Eva; Clague, John J; Dinh, Khuong V; Doorn, Neelke; Gunnarsson, Jonas S; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Hazlerigg, Charles; Hunka, Agnieszka D; Jensen, John; Lin, Yan; Loureiro, Susana; Miraglia, Simona; Munns, Wayne R; Nadim, Farrokh; Palmqvist, Annemette; Rämö, Robert A; Seaby, Lauren P; Syberg, Kristian; Tangaa, Stine R; Thit, Amalie; Windfeld, Ronja; Zalewski, Maciej; Chapman, Peter M

2017-01-01

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:7-16. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Cumulative occupational mechanical exposures during working life and risk of sickness absence and disability pension

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundstrup, Emil; Hansen, Åse Marie; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

2017-01-01

-regression analyses estimated the relative risk of register-based long-term sickness absence (LTSA) and disability pension with cumulative occupational mechanical exposures throughout working life. Analyses were censored for competing events and adjusted for multiple confounders. Results: During the follow-up period......Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the prospective association of cumulative mechanical exposure during working life with health-related labor market outcomes. Methods: This prospective cohort study combines data from 5076 older workers (age 49-63 years) from the Copenhagen Aging...... from a JEM for ton-years (lifting 1000 kg each day in one year), lifting-years (lifting loads weighing ≥20 kg >10 times each day in one year), kneeling-years (kneeling for one hour each day in one year) and vibration-years (whole-body vibration for one hour each day in one year). Cox...

Cumulative Risk and Adolescent's Internalizing and Externalizing Problems: The Mediating Roles of Maternal Responsiveness and Self-Regulation

Science.gov (United States)

Doan, Stacey N.; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E.; Evans, Gary W.

2012-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to examine longitudinal associations among maternal responsiveness, self-regulation, and behavioral adjustment in adolescents. The authors used structural equation modeling to test a model that demonstrates that the effects of early cumulative risk on behavioral problems is mediated by maternal responsiveness…

Habitat risk assessment for regional ocean planning in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Science.gov (United States)

Wyatt, Katherine H; Griffin, Robert; Guerry, Anne D; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Fogarty, Michael; Arkema, Katie K

2017-01-01

Coastal habitats provide important benefits to people, including habitat for species targeted by fisheries and opportunities for tourism and recreation. Yet, such human activities also can imperil these habitats and undermine the ecosystem services they provide to people. Cumulative risk assessment provides an analytical framework for synthesizing the influence of multiple stressors across habitats and decision-support for balancing human uses and ecosystem health. To explore cumulative risk to habitats in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Ocean Planning regions, we apply the open-source InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment model to 13 habitats and 31 stressors in an exposure-consequence framework. In doing so, we advance the science priorities of EBM and both regional planning bodies by synthesizing the wealth of available data to improve our understanding of human uses and how they affect marine resources. We find that risk to ecosystems is greatest first, along the coast, where a large number of stressors occur in close proximity and secondly, along the continental shelf, where fewer, higher consequence activities occur. Habitats at greatest risk include soft and hard-bottom nearshore areas, tidal flats, soft-bottom shelf habitat, and rocky intertidal zones-with the degree of risk varying spatially. Across all habitats, our results indicate that rising sea surface temperatures, commercial fishing, and shipping consistently and disproportionally contribute to risk. Further, our findings suggest that management in the nearshore will require simultaneously addressing the temporal and spatial overlap as well as intensity of multiple human activities and that management in the offshore requires more targeted efforts to reduce exposure from specific threats. We offer a transparent, generalizable approach to evaluating cumulative risk to multiple habitats and illustrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of impacts along the eastern Atlantic coast and the importance of

Low Birth Weight, Cumulative Obesity Dose, and the Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes

OpenAIRE

Feng, Cindy; Osgood, Nathaniel D.; Dyck, Roland F.

2018-01-01

Background. Obesity history may provide a better understanding of the contribution of obesity to T2DM risk. Methods. 17,634 participants from the 1958 National Child Development Study were followed from birth to 50 years. Cumulative obesity dose, a measure of obesity history, was calculated by subtracting the upper cut-off of the normal BMI from the actual BMI at each follow-up and summing the areas under the obesity dose curve. Hazard ratios (HRs) for diabetes were calculated using Cox regre...

Psychotic-spectrum symptoms, cumulative adversity exposure and substance use among high-risk girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Lansing, Amy E; Plante, Wendy Y; Fennema-Notestine, Christine; Golshan, Shahrokh; Beck, Audrey N

2018-02-01

Psychotic-spectrum symptoms are linked to trauma, substance/alcohol use (SAU), criminality/violence and poor functional outcomes, supporting the need for early detection in vulnerable populations. To better understand high-risk girls' mental health, we assessed: (1) psychotic-spectrum symptoms; (2) cumulative trauma, adversity and loss exposures (C-TALE) and adversity-indicators (symptoms, maladaptive coping, stressor-reactivity); and SAU risk-factors; and (3) relationships among psychotic-spectrum symptoms, adversity-indicators and SAU risk-factors. We administered the Structured Clinical Interviews for Psychotic Spectrum, and Trauma and Loss Spectrum to 158 adolescent delinquent girls. Girls' psychotic-spectrum profiles were similar to previously reported adult psychotic patients and characterized by typical symptoms (hallucinations/delusions, reported largely SAU-independent), interpersonal sensitivity, schizoid traits and paranoia (over-interpretation, anger over-reactivity, hypervigilance). Auditory/visual hallucinations (55.7%), delusions (92.4%), ideas of reference (96.8%) and adversity (90.0% ≥10/24 C-TALE-types) were common. Mean loss (4) and trauma (8) onset-age occurred before SAU-onset (12). Significant positive correlations were found among psychotic-spectrum symptoms, stressor-reactivity, C-TALE, adversity-indicators; and number of SAU-types; and a negative correlation occurred between psychotic-spectrum symptoms and earlier alcohol use onset. After controlling for number of SAU-types, stressor-reactivity and adversity-related numbing individually had the largest associations with total psychotic-spectrum symptoms (b = 2.6-4.3). Girls averaged more than 4 maladaptive coping strategies (e.g., 24.8% attempted suicide) in response to adversity, amplifying potential health-disparities. No racial/ethnic differences emerged on psychotic-spectrum symptoms. This symptom constellation during adolescence likely interferes with social and academic

Cumulative Effects Assessment: Linking Social, Ecological, and Governance Dimensions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marian Weber

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Setting social, economic, and ecological objectives is ultimately a process of social choice informed by science. In this special feature we provide a multidisciplinary framework for the use of cumulative effects assessment in land use planning. Forest ecosystems are facing considerable challenges driven by population growth and increasing demands for resources. In a suite of case studies that span the boreal forest of Western Canada to the interior Atlantic forest of Paraguay we show how transparent and defensible methods for scenario analysis can be applied in data-limited regions and how social dimensions of land use change can be incorporated in these methods, particularly in aboriginal communities that have lived in these ecosystems for generations. The case studies explore how scenario analysis can be used to evaluate various land use options and highlight specific challenges with identifying social and ecological responses, determining thresholds and targets for land use, and integrating local and traditional knowledge in land use planning. Given that land use planning is ultimately a value-laden and often politically charged process we also provide some perspective on various collective and expert-based processes for identifying cumulative impacts and thresholds. The need for good science to inform and be informed by culturally appropriate democratic processes calls for well-planned and multifaceted approaches both to achieve an informed understanding of both residents and governments of the interactive and additive changes caused by development, and to design action agendas to influence such change at the ecological and social level.

Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

2016-01-01

Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

A cumulative risk factor model for early identification of academic difficulties in premature and low birth weight infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, G; Bellinger, D; McCormick, M C

2007-03-01

Premature and low birth weight children have a high prevalence of academic difficulties. This study examines a model comprised of cumulative risk factors that allows early identification of these difficulties. This is a secondary analysis of data from a large cohort of premature (mathematics. Potential predictor variables were categorized into 4 domains: sociodemographic, neonatal, maternal mental health and early childhood (ages 3 and 5). Regression analysis was used to create a model to predict reading and mathematics scores. Variables from all domains were significant in the model, predicting low achievement scores in reading (R (2) of 0.49, model p-value mathematics (R (2) of 0.44, model p-value intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Lower mathematics scores were predicted by lower maternal education, income and age and Black or Hispanic race (sociodemographic); lower birth weight and higher head circumference (neonatal); lower maternal responsivity (maternal mental health); lower intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Sequential early childhood risk factors in premature and LBW children lead to a cumulative risk for academic difficulties and can be used for early identification.

Playing It Safe: Assessing Cumulative Impact and Social Vulnerability through an Environmental Justice Screening Method in the South Coast Air Basin, California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin Scoggins

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Regulatory agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA and state authorities like the California Air Resources Board (CARB, have sought to address the concerns of environmental justice (EJ advocates who argue that chemical-by-chemical and source-specific assessments of potential health risks of environmental hazards do not reflect the multiple environmental and social stressors faced by vulnerable communities. We propose an Environmental Justice Screening Method (EJSM as a relatively simple, flexible and transparent way to examine the relative rank of cumulative impacts and social vulnerability within metropolitan regions and determine environmental justice areas based on more than simply the demographics of income and race. We specifically organize 23 indicator metrics into three categories: (1 hazard proximity and land use; (2 air pollution exposure and estimated health risk; and (3 social and health vulnerability. For hazard proximity, the EJSM uses GIS analysis to create a base map by intersecting land use data with census block polygons, and calculates hazard proximity measures based on locations within various buffer distances. These proximity metrics are then summarized to the census tract level where they are combined with tract centroid-based estimates of pollution exposure and health risk and socio-economic status (SES measures. The result is a cumulative impacts (CI score for ranking neighborhoods within regions that can inform diverse stakeholders seeking to identify local areas that might need targeted regulatory strategies to address environmental justice concerns.

Technical Note: SCUDA: A software platform for cumulative dose assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Seyoun; McNutt, Todd; Quon, Harry; Wong, John; Lee, Junghoon, E-mail: rshekhar@childrensnational.org, E-mail: junghoon@jhu.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21231 (United States); Plishker, William [IGI Technologies, Inc., College Park, Maryland 20742 (United States); Shekhar, Raj, E-mail: rshekhar@childrensnational.org, E-mail: junghoon@jhu.edu [IGI Technologies, Inc., College Park, Maryland 20742 and Sheikh Zayed Institute for Pediatric Surgical Innovation, Children’s National Health System, Washington, DC 20010 (United States)

2016-10-15

Purpose: Accurate tracking of anatomical changes and computation of actually delivered dose to the patient are critical for successful adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Additionally, efficient data management and fast processing are practically important for the adoption in clinic as ART involves a large amount of image and treatment data. The purpose of this study was to develop an accurate and efficient Software platform for CUmulative Dose Assessment (SCUDA) that can be seamlessly integrated into the clinical workflow. Methods: SCUDA consists of deformable image registration (DIR), segmentation, dose computation modules, and a graphical user interface. It is connected to our image PACS and radiotherapy informatics databases from which it automatically queries/retrieves patient images, radiotherapy plan, beam data, and daily treatment information, thus providing an efficient and unified workflow. For accurate registration of the planning CT and daily CBCTs, the authors iteratively correct CBCT intensities by matching local intensity histograms during the DIR process. Contours of the target tumor and critical structures are then propagated from the planning CT to daily CBCTs using the computed deformations. The actual delivered daily dose is computed using the registered CT and patient setup information by a superposition/convolution algorithm, and accumulated using the computed deformation fields. Both DIR and dose computation modules are accelerated by a graphics processing unit. Results: The cumulative dose computation process has been validated on 30 head and neck (HN) cancer cases, showing 3.5 ± 5.0 Gy (mean±STD) absolute mean dose differences between the planned and the actually delivered doses in the parotid glands. On average, DIR, dose computation, and segmentation take 20 s/fraction and 17 min for a 35-fraction treatment including additional computation for dose accumulation. Conclusions: The authors developed a unified software platform that provides

Cumulative occupational shoulder exposures and surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome: a nationwide Danish cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalbøge, Annett; Frost, Poul; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Svendsen, Susanne Wulff

2014-11-01

The primary aim was to examine exposure-response relationships between cumulative occupational shoulder exposures and surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome (SIS), and to compare sex-specific exposure-response relationships. The secondary aim was to examine the time window of relevant exposures. We conducted a nationwide register study of all persons born in Denmark (1933-1977), who had at least 5 years of full-time employment. In the follow-up period (2003-2008), we identified first-time events of surgery for SIS. Cumulative exposure estimates for a 10-year exposure time window with a 1-year lag time were obtained by linking occupational codes with a job exposure matrix. The exposure estimates were expressed as, for example, arm-elevation-years in accordance with the pack-year concept of tobacco consumption. We used a multivariable logistic regression technique equivalent to discrete survival analysis. The adjusted OR (ORadj) increased to a maximum of 2.1 for arm-elevation-years, repetition-years and force-years, and to 1.5 for hand-arm-vibration-years. Sex-specific exposure-response relationships were similar for men and women, when assessed using a relative risk scale. The ORadj increased gradually with the number of years contributing to the cumulative exposure estimates. The excess fraction was 24%. Cumulative occupational shoulder exposures carried an increase in risk of surgery for SIS with similar exposure-response curves for men and women. The risk of surgery for SIS increased gradually, when the period of exposure assessment was extended. In the general working population, a substantial fraction of all first-time operations for SIS could be related to occupational exposures. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Cumulative human impacts on marine predators.

Science.gov (United States)

Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Halpern, Benjamin S; Breed, Greg A; Nickel, Barry; Teutschel, Nicole M; Crowder, Larry B; Benson, Scott; Dutton, Peter H; Bailey, Helen; Kappes, Michelle A; Kuhn, Carey E; Weise, Michael J; Mate, Bruce; Shaffer, Scott A; Hassrick, Jason L; Henry, Robert W; Irvine, Ladd; McDonald, Birgitte I; Robinson, Patrick W; Block, Barbara A; Costa, Daniel P

2013-01-01

Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species (n=685 individuals) in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors. We show significant variation in CUI with some of the highest impacts within US National Marine Sanctuaries. High variation in underlying species and cumulative impact distributions means that neither alone is sufficient for effective spatial management. Instead, comprehensive management approaches accounting for both cumulative human impacts and trade-offs among multiple stressors must be applied in planning the use of marine resources.

Crane Safety Assessment Method Based on Entropy and Cumulative Prospect Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aihua Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Assessing the safety status of cranes is an important problem. To overcome the inaccuracies and misjudgments in such assessments, this work describes a safety assessment method for cranes that combines entropy and cumulative prospect theory. Firstly, the proposed method transforms the set of evaluation indices into an evaluation vector. Secondly, a decision matrix is then constructed from the evaluation vectors and evaluation standards, and an entropy-based technique is applied to calculate the index weights. Thirdly, positive and negative prospect value matrices are established from reference points based on the positive and negative ideal solutions. Thus, this enables the crane safety grade to be determined according to the ranked comprehensive prospect values. Finally, the safety status of four general overhead traveling crane samples is evaluated to verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that the method described in this paper can precisely and reasonably reflect the safety status of a crane.

Pesticide residues and bees--a risk assessment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco Sanchez-Bayo

Full Text Available Bees are essential pollinators of many plants in natural ecosystems and agricultural crops alike. In recent years the decline and disappearance of bee species in the wild and the collapse of honey bee colonies have concerned ecologists and apiculturalists, who search for causes and solutions to this problem. Whilst biological factors such as viral diseases, mite and parasite infections are undoubtedly involved, it is also evident that pesticides applied to agricultural crops have a negative impact on bees. Most risk assessments have focused on direct acute exposure of bees to agrochemicals from spray drift. However, the large number of pesticide residues found in pollen and honey demand a thorough evaluation of all residual compounds so as to identify those of highest risk to bees. Using data from recent residue surveys and toxicity of pesticides to honey and bumble bees, a comprehensive evaluation of risks under current exposure conditions is presented here. Standard risk assessments are complemented with new approaches that take into account time-cumulative effects over time, especially with dietary exposures. Whilst overall risks appear to be low, our analysis indicates that residues of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid insecticides pose the highest risk by contact exposure of bees with contaminated pollen. However, the synergism of ergosterol inhibiting fungicides with those two classes of insecticides results in much higher risks in spite of the low prevalence of their combined residues. Risks by ingestion of contaminated pollen and honey are of some concern for systemic insecticides, particularly imidacloprid and thiamethoxam, chlorpyrifos and the mixtures of cyhalothrin and ergosterol inhibiting fungicides. More attention should be paid to specific residue mixtures that may result in synergistic toxicity to bees.

Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

OpenAIRE

Olazarán, J.; Trincado, R.; Bermejo-Pareja, F.

2013-01-01

Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD), with control of vascular factors (VFs). Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (n...

Evaluation of methodologies for risk assessment of combined toxic actions of chemical substances and establishment of PBTK/TD models for pesticides

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reffstrup, Trine Klein

for pragmatic reasons, it is often more appropriate to consider the individual compounds as possible candidates for one (or more) cumulative assessment group(s). The cumulative risk assessment of this group will then be performed assuming simple similar action using one of the single compound approaches...... will consists of sets of identical equations, one set for each chemical as well as equations that specifically accounts for the interactions (e.g. competitive inhibition of metabolism in liver or induction of hepatic metabolism). The development of PBTK models is complex and should only be used when...

Baltic Sea biodiversity status vs. cumulative human pressures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jesper H.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Korpinen, Samuli

2015-01-01

Abstract Many studies have tried to explain spatial and temporal variations in biodiversity status of marine areas from a single-issue perspective, such as fishing pressure or coastal pollution, yet most continental seas experience a wide range of human pressures. Cumulative impact assessments have...... been developed to capture the consequences of multiple stressors for biodiversity, but the ability of these assessments to accurately predict biodiversity status has never been tested or ground-truthed. This relationship has similarly been assumed for the Baltic Sea, especially in areas with impaired...... status, but has also never been documented. Here we provide a first tentative indication that cumulative human impacts relate to ecosystem condition, i.e. biodiversity status, in the Baltic Sea. Thus, cumulative impact assessments offer a promising tool for informed marine spatial planning, designation...

Assessing exposures and risks in heterogeneously contaminated areas: A simulation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fingleton, D.J.; MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Oezkaynak, H.; Butler, D.A.; Xue, J.

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at a number of facilities under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program. The major goals of this program are to eliminate potential hazards to human health and the environment that are associated with contamination of these sites and, to the extent possible, make surplus real property available for other uses. The assessment of potential baseline health risks and ecological impacts associated with a contaminated site is an important component of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process required at all Superfund sites. The purpose of this paper is to describe one phase of the baseline assessment, i.e., the characterization of human health risks associated with exposure to chemical contaminants in air and on interior building surfaces at a contaminated site. The model combines data on human activity patterns in a particular microenvironment within a building with contaminant concentrations in that microenvironment to calculate personal exposure profiles and risks within the building. The results of the building assessment are presented as probability distribution functions and cumulative distribution functions, which show the variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates

Assessing exposures and risks in heterogeneously contaminated areas: A simulation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fingleton, D.J.; MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Oezkaynak, H.; Butler, D.A.; Jianping Xue

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at a number of facilities under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program. The major goals of this program are to eliminate potential hazards to human health and the environment that are associated with contamination of these sites and, to the extent possible, make surplus real property available for other uses. The assessment of potential baseline health risks and ecological impacts associated with a contaminated site is an important component of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process required at all Superfund sites. The purpose of this paper is to describe one phase of the baseline assessment, i.e., the characterization of human health risks associated with exposure to chemical contaminants in air and on interior building surfaces at a contaminated site. The model combines data on human activity patterns in a particular microenvironment within a building with contaminant concentrations in that microenvironment to calculate personal exposure profiles and risks within the building. The results of the building assessment are presented as probability distributions functions and cumulative distribution functions, which show the variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates. 23 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Quantitative Relationship Between Cumulative Risk Alleles Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satoru Kodama

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Many epidemiological studies have assessed the genetic risk of having undiagnosed or of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM using several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs based on findings of genome-wide association studies (GWAS. However, the quantitative association of cumulative risk alleles (RAs of such SNPs with T2DM risk has been unclear. The aim of this meta-analysis is to review the strength of the association between cumulative RAs and T2DM risk. Systematic literature searches were conducted for cross-sectional or longitudinal studies that examined odds ratios (ORs for T2DM in relation to genetic profiles. Logarithm of the estimated OR (log OR of T2DM for 1 increment in RAs carried (1-ΔRA in each study was pooled using a random-effects model. There were 46 eligible studies that included 74,880 cases among 249,365 participants. In 32 studies with a cross-sectional design, the pooled OR for T2DM morbidity for 1-ΔRA was 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13–1.19. In 15 studies that had a longitudinal design, the OR for incident T2DM was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08–1.13. There was large heterogeneity in the magnitude of log OR (P < 0.001 for both cross-sectional studies and longitudinal studies. The top 10 commonly used genes significantly explained the variance in the log OR (P = 0.04 for cross-sectional studies; P = 0.006 for longitudinal studies. The current meta-analysis indicated that carrying 1-ΔRA in T2DM-associated SNPs was associated with a modest risk of prevalent or incident T2DM, although the heterogeneity in the used genes among studies requires us to interpret the results with caution.

Approaches to quantitative risk assessment with applications to PP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geiger, G.; Schaefer, A.

2002-01-01

Full text: Experience with accidents such as Goiania in Brazil and indications of a considerable number of orphan sources suggest that improved protection would be desirable for some types of radioactive material of wide-spread use such as radiation sources for civil purposes. Regarding large potential health and economic consequences (in particular, if terrorists attacks cannot be excluded), significant costs of preventive actions, and large uncertainties about both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential consequences of PP safety and security incidents, an optimum relationship between preventive and mitigative efforts is likely to be a key issue for successful risk management in this field. Thus, possible violations of physical protection combined with threats of misuse of nuclear materials, including terrorist attack, pose considerable challenges to global security from various perspectives. In view of these challenges, recent advance in applied risk and decision analysis suggests methodological and procedural improvements in quantitative risk assessment, the demarcation of acceptable risk, and risk management. Advance is based on a recently developed model of optimal risky choice suitable for assessing and comparing the cumulative probability distribution functions attached to safety and security risks. Besides quantification of risk (e. g., in economic terms), the standardization of various risk assessment models frequently used in operations research can be approached on this basis. The paper explores possible applications of these improved methods to the safety and security management of nuclear materials, cost efficiency of risk management measures, and the establishment international safety and security standards of PP. Examples will be presented that are based on selected scenarios of misuse involving typical radioactive sources. (author)

Acrylamide in Romanian food using HPLC-UV and a health risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Oroian, Mircea; Amariei, Sonia; Gutt, Gheorghe

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the level of acrylamide from coffee, potato chips and French fries in Romanian food. According to the European Food Safety Authority, coffee beans, potato chips and French fries have the highest levels of acrylamide. For this survey, 50 samples of coffee beans, 50 samples of potato chips and 25 samples of French fries were purchased from different producers from the Romanian market. Acrylamide levels have been quantified using high-performance liquid chromatography with a diode array detector (HPLC-DAD) method, using water as mobile phase. Health risk assessment was achieved by computing the average daily intake, hazard quotient, cumulative risk, carcinogenic risk and cancer risk. For coffee, potato chips and French fries, acrylamide was not shown to pose a health risk in Romanian food.

Cumulative risk on the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) underpins empathic communication difficulties at the first stages of romantic love.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneiderman, Inna; Kanat-Maymon, Yaniv; Ebstein, Richard P; Feldman, Ruth

2014-10-01

Empathic communication between couples plays an important role in relationship quality and individual well-being and research has pointed to the role of oxytocin in providing the neurobiological substrate for pair-bonding and empathy. Here, we examined links between genetic variability on the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) and empathic behaviour at the initiation of romantic love. Allelic variations on five OXTR single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with susceptibility to disorders of social functioning were genotyped in 120 new lovers: OXTRrs13316193, rs2254298, rs1042778, rs2268494 and rs2268490. Cumulative genetic risk was computed by summing risk alleles on each SNP. Couples were observed in support-giving interaction and behaviour was coded for empathic communication, including affective congruence, maintaining focus on partner, acknowledging partner's distress, reciprocal exchange and non-verbal empathy. Hierarchical linear modelling indicated that individuals with high OXTR risk exhibited difficulties in empathic communication. OXTR risk predicted empathic difficulties above and beyond the couple level, relationship duration, and anxiety and depressive symptoms. Findings underscore the involvement of oxytocin in empathic behaviour during the early stages of social affiliation, and suggest the utility of cumulative risk and plasticity indices on the OXTR as potential biomarkers for research on disorders of social dysfunction and the neurobiology of empathy. © The Author (2013). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Framework for Multi-Pathway Cumulative Exposure for Comparative Assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

McKone, Tom; Fantke, Peter

2016-01-01

in comparative risk assessment, life-cycle assessment (LCA), and chemical alternatives assessment (CAA), multimedia fate and exposure models synthesize information about partitioning, reaction, and intermedia-transport properties of chemicals in a representative (local to regional) or generic (continental...

Cumulative Effects of Several Target Organ Damages in Risk Assessment in Hypertension.

Science.gov (United States)

Harbaoui, Brahim; Courand, Pierre-Yves; Defforges, Alice; Khettab, Fouad; Milon, Hugues; Girerd, Nicolas; Lantelme, Pierre

2016-02-01

The prognostic value of screening multiple target organ damages (TODs) in hypertensive subjects has not been extensively studied. We estimated the prognostic value of considering 3 TODs in estimating the 10-year survival in hypertensive subjects. At baseline 1,848 out of a cohort of 1,963 hypertensive patients had a previous cardiovascular disease (CVD) or assessments of 3 TODs: Modification in Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) 300mg/day, Sokolow index >3.5 mV, and advanced hypertensive retinopathy (grades 3 and 4 of Keith-Wagener-Barker classification). The cohort was divided into 5 groups: 0 TOD (N = 978), 1 TOD (N = 308), 2 TODs (N = 94), 3 TODs (N = 30), and previous CVD (N = 438). After 10 years of follow-up, we observed 418 deaths of which 254 from cardiovascular cause. The adjusted hazard ratios for the major cardiovascular risk factors showed a progressive risk associated with the number of TODs. For all-cause death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] vs. 0 TOD of the other 4 groups were 1.91 [1.39-2.63], 1.99 [1.28-3.10], 4.33 [2.42-7.72], and 3.09 [2.35-4.05], respectively. For cardiovascular death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] were of the same order of magnitude: 2.14 [1.38-3.32], 2.12 [1.15-3.89], 4.22 [1.83-9.72], and 4.24 [2.95-6.11], respectively. Our results indicate that hypertensive patients with several TODs had a worst outcome. Thus, it seems important to screen for multiple TODs in hypertension; especially check for severe hypertensive retinopathy in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and renal damage. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessment of lung cancer risks for some categories of underground workers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimitrov, M.

1975-01-01

In radioactive mines as well as in hardrock mines, tunnels under construction, and other underground workings, increased atmospheric levels of radioactive-gas daughter products are associated with a potential hazard of inhalation overexposure to workers. Absorbed dose from the alpha-activity component of deposition occurring in the process of breathing manifests a maximum in the area of secondary to quarternary bronchi. In this critical tissue, radiation exposure, along with other deleterious factors, produces conditions favourable to initiation of lung cancer, with a frequency of the latter proportional to cumulative dose. An assessment was made of absolute radiation risk to workers inhaling a radon-daughter contaminated atmosphere, on the basis of an estimated cumulative dose and a dose-response relation arrived at from epidemiological studies by other authors. For a range with a lower limit representing the product of maximum permissible concentration and half of the underground experience assigned to first category labor, and an upper limit determined by the product of maximum ''hidden'' alpha-decay energy measured and a full underground experience (180 months), cumulative exposures were found to vary from 90 to 8100 WLM. Rough estimates of corresponding lung cancer incidence ranged from 2 to 150 cases per year per 10,000 workers, versus 2-5 cases per year per 10,000 members of the general male population of the country. Results, obtained from a reconnaissance statistical study on a sample of 230 underground workers, with suitable working experiences and personal cumulative exposures, indicated a predicted frequency of lung cancer development of 0.43 cases per year, leading to an estimate of 19 cases per year per 10,000 workers. Such a magnitude of risk clearly shows an urgent need for introducing effective measures to improve radiological conditions in the occupational environment for a large proportion of the underground workers. (author)

Framework tool for a rapid cumulative effects assessment: case of a prominent wetland in Myanmar.

Science.gov (United States)

Pradhan, N; Habib, H; Venkatappa, M; Ebbers, T; Duboz, R; Shipin, O

2015-06-01

The wetland of focus, Inle Lake, located in central Myanmar, is well known for its unique biodiversity and culture, as well as for ingenious floating garden agriculture. During the last decades, the lake area has seen extensive degradation in terms of water quality, erosion, deforestation, and biodiversity concomitant with a major shift to unsustainable land use. The study was conducted, with an emphasis on water quality, to analyze environmental impacts (effects) changing the ecosystem and to comprehensively evaluate the environmental state of the ecosystem through an innovative Rapid Cumulative Effects Assessment framework tool. The assessment started with a framework-forming Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), which quantified and prioritized impacts over space and time. Critically important impacts were assessed for "intra-inter interactions" using the loop analysis simulation. Water samples were analyzed while geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing were used to identify water pollution hotspots. It was concluded that out of a plethora of impacts, pollution from municipal sources, sedimentation, and effects exerted by floating gardens had the most detrimental impacts, which cumulatively affected the entire ecosystem. The framework tool was designed in a broad sense with a reference to highly needed assessments of poorly studied wetlands where degradation is evident, but scarcely quantified, and where long-term field studies are fraught with security issues and resource unavailability (post-conflict, poor and remote regions, e.g., Afghanistan, Laos, Sudan, etc.).

Maintenance hemodialysis patients have high cumulative radiation exposure.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Kinsella, Sinead M

2010-10-01

Hemodialysis is associated with an increased risk of neoplasms which may result, at least in part, from exposure to ionizing radiation associated with frequent radiographic procedures. In order to estimate the average radiation exposure of those on hemodialysis, we conducted a retrospective study of 100 patients in a university-based dialysis unit followed for a median of 3.4 years. The number and type of radiological procedures were obtained from a central radiology database, and the cumulative effective radiation dose was calculated using standardized, procedure-specific radiation levels. The median annual radiation dose was 6.9 millisieverts (mSv) per patient-year. However, 14 patients had an annual cumulative effective radiation dose over 20 mSv, the upper averaged annual limit for occupational exposure. The median total cumulative effective radiation dose per patient over the study period was 21.7 mSv, in which 13 patients had a total cumulative effective radiation dose over 75 mSv, a value reported to be associated with a 7% increased risk of cancer-related mortality. Two-thirds of the total cumulative effective radiation dose was due to CT scanning. The average radiation exposure was significantly associated with the cause of end-stage renal disease, history of ischemic heart disease, transplant waitlist status, number of in-patient hospital days over follow-up, and death during the study period. These results highlight the substantial exposure to ionizing radiation in hemodialysis patients.

Physicologically Based Toxicokinetic Models of Tebuconazole and Application in Human Risk Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

2016-01-01

(ADME) of tebuconazole. The developed models were validated on in vivo half-life data for rabbit with good results, and on plasma and tissue concentration-time course data of tebuconazole after i.v. administration in rabbit. In most cases, the predicted concentration levels were seen to be within......A series of physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models for tebuconazole were developed in four species, rat, rabbit, rhesus monkey, and human. The developed models were analyzed with respect to the application of the models in higher tier human risk assessment, and the prospect of using...... such models in risk assessment of cumulative and aggregate exposure is discussed. Relatively simple and biologically sound models were developed using available experimental data as parameters for describing the physiology of the species, as well as the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination...

Cumulative Socioeconomic Status Risk, Allostatic Load, and Adjustment: A Prospective Latent Profile Analysis with Contextual and Genetic Protective Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Gene H.; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-Fu; Kogan, Steven M.; Evans, Gary W.; Beach, Steven R. H.; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L.; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Philibert, Robert A.

2013-01-01

The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental…

Toward a conceptual approach for assessing risks from chemical mixtures and other stressors to coastal ecosystem services

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Syberg, Kristian; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary Thomas

2017-01-01

in Costa Rica) are provided; one focuses on chemicals that affect human food supply and the other addresses pesticide runoff and trade-offs among ES. The 2 cases are used to highlight challenges of such risk assessments, including use of standardized versus ES-relevant test species, data completeness......, translate impacts into ES units; step F, assess cumulative risk in ES units; step G, rank stressors based on their contribution to adverse effects on ES; and step H, implement regulation and management as appropriate and necessary. Two illustrative case studies (Swedish coastal waters and a coastal lagoon......, and trade-offs among ES. Lessons learned from the 2 case studies are discussed in relation to environmental risk assessment and management of chemical mixtures....

Pesticide Residues and Bees – A Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez-Bayo, Francisco; Goka, Koichi

2014-01-01

Bees are essential pollinators of many plants in natural ecosystems and agricultural crops alike. In recent years the decline and disappearance of bee species in the wild and the collapse of honey bee colonies have concerned ecologists and apiculturalists, who search for causes and solutions to this problem. Whilst biological factors such as viral diseases, mite and parasite infections are undoubtedly involved, it is also evident that pesticides applied to agricultural crops have a negative impact on bees. Most risk assessments have focused on direct acute exposure of bees to agrochemicals from spray drift. However, the large number of pesticide residues found in pollen and honey demand a thorough evaluation of all residual compounds so as to identify those of highest risk to bees. Using data from recent residue surveys and toxicity of pesticides to honey and bumble bees, a comprehensive evaluation of risks under current exposure conditions is presented here. Standard risk assessments are complemented with new approaches that take into account time-cumulative effects over time, especially with dietary exposures. Whilst overall risks appear to be low, our analysis indicates that residues of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid insecticides pose the highest risk by contact exposure of bees with contaminated pollen. However, the synergism of ergosterol inhibiting fungicides with those two classes of insecticides results in much higher risks in spite of the low prevalence of their combined residues. Risks by ingestion of contaminated pollen and honey are of some concern for systemic insecticides, particularly imidacloprid and thiamethoxam, chlorpyrifos and the mixtures of cyhalothrin and ergosterol inhibiting fungicides. More attention should be paid to specific residue mixtures that may result in synergistic toxicity to bees. PMID:24718419

Cumulative effective dose and cancer risk for pediatric population in repetitive full spine follow-up imaging: How micro dose is the EOS microdose protocol?

Science.gov (United States)

Law, Martin; Ma, Wang-Kei; Lau, Damian; Cheung, Kenneth; Ip, Janice; Yip, Lawrance; Lam, Wendy

2018-04-01

To evaluate and to obtain analytic formulation for the calculation of the effective dose and associated cancer risk using the EOS microdose protocol for scoliotic pediatric patients undergoing full spine imaging at different age of exposure; to demonstrate the microdose protocol capable of delivering lesser radiation dose and hence of further reducing cancer risk induction when compared with the EOS low dose protocol; to obtain cumulative effective dose and cancer risk for both genders scoliotic pediatrics of US and Hong Kong population using the microdose protocol. Organ absorbed doses of full spine exposed scoliotic pediatric patients have been simulated with the use of EOS microdose protocol imaging parameters input to the Monte Carlo software PCXMC. Gender and age specific effective dose has been calculated with the simulated organ absorbed dose using the ICRP-103 approach. The associated radiation induced cancer risk, expressed as lifetime attributable risk (LAR), has been estimated according to the method introduced in the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. Values of LAR have been estimated for scoliotic patients exposed repetitively during their follow up period at different age for US and Hong Kong population. The effective doses of full spine imaging with simultaneous posteroanterior and lateral projection for patients exposed at the age between 5 and 18 years using the EOS microdose protocol have been calculated within the range of 2.54-14.75 μSv. The corresponding LAR for US and Hong Kong population was ranged between 0.04 × 10 -6 and 0.84 × 10 -6 . Cumulative effective dose and cancer risk during follow-up period can be estimated using the results and are of information to patients and their parents. With the use of computer simulation and analytic formulation, we obtained the cumulative effective dose and cancer risk at any age of exposure for pediatric patients of US and Hong Kong population undergoing repetitive

Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Vegt, R G

2018-02-26

This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Applicability of the tissue stem cell turnover concept on the validity of cumulative dose based radiation risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otsuka, Kensuke; Hamada, Nobuyuki; Iwasaki, Toshiyasu; Yoshida, Kazuo

2011-01-01

The radiation protection system adopts the linear no-threshold model to achieve proper radiation protection for considering cancer risks resulting from radiation exposure. This model uses cumulative dose to a tissue for risk evaluation in which cumulative dose is related to the amount of DNA damage and consequential induction of gene mutation. In this concept, gene mutation accumulates in tissue stem cells, the putative target of carcinogenesis, with total dose given to the tissue. Unlike high-dose-rate exposure, epidemiological studies in high radiation background areas, such as Kerala in India, revealed that cancer risks is not elevated by the dose to the inhabitants, suggesting that there exists some mechanisms to eliminate the damage/mutation in the exposed tissue under extremely low-dose-rate exposure situations. In this report, the dynamics of tissue stem cell turnover is evaluated as a possible mechanism under extremely low-dose-rate exposure situations. To this end, we reviewed recent literatures studying tissue stem cell turnover, and found that great advances in stem cell research have made it possible to trace a fate of stem cells in tissues. Furthermore, turnover of tissue stem cells is found to occur after irradiation, due to competition of stem cells within tissues. This raises a possibility that radiation effects may not accumulate in a tissue depending on the dose-rate and duration of exposure period. (author)

Cumulative effects of wind turbines. Volume 3: Report on results of consultations on cumulative effects of wind turbines on birds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-07-01

This report gives details of the consultations held in developing the consensus approach taken in assessing the cumulative effects of wind turbines. Contributions on bird issues, and views of stakeholders, the Countryside Council for Wales, electric utilities, Scottish Natural Heritage, and the National Wind Power Association are reported. The scoping of key species groups, where cumulative effects might be expected, consideration of other developments, the significance of any adverse effects, mitigation, regional capacity assessments, and predictive models are discussed. Topics considered at two stakeholder workshops are outlined in the appendices.

Cumulative radiation exposure in children with cystic fibrosis.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

O'Reilly, R

2010-02-01

This retrospective study calculated the cumulative radiation dose for children with cystic fibrosis (CF) attending a tertiary CF centre. Information on 77 children with a mean age of 9.5 years, a follow up time of 658 person years and 1757 studies including 1485 chest radiographs, 215 abdominal radiographs and 57 computed tomography (CT) scans, of which 51 were thoracic CT scans, were analysed. The average cumulative radiation dose was 6.2 (0.04-25) mSv per CF patient. Cumulative radiation dose increased with increasing age and number of CT scans and was greater in children who presented with meconium ileus. No correlation was identified between cumulative radiation dose and either lung function or patient microbiology cultures. Radiation carries a risk of malignancy and children are particularly susceptible. Every effort must be made to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure in these patients whose life expectancy is increasing.

Failure-To-Thrive, Maltreatment and the Behavior and Development of 6-Year-Old Children from Low-Income, Urban Families: A Cumulative Risk Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, Mia A.; Black, Maureen M.; Krishnakumar, Ambika

2000-01-01

A cumulative risk model was used to examine the relationship among failure-to-thrive (FIT), maltreatment, and four aspects of children's development (cognitive performance, adaptive functioning at school, classroom behavior, and behavior at home) in 193 6-year-olds. Risk status was negatively associated with the four developmental outcomes.…

Probabilistic acute risk assessment of cumulative exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides from dietary vegetables and fruits in Shanghai populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Fan; Yuan, Yaqun; Meng, Pai; Wu, Min; Li, Shuguang; Chen, Bo

2017-05-01

Organophosphorus pesticides (OPs) and carbamate pesticides (CPs) are among the most widely used pesticides in China, playing a major role in protecting agricultural commodities. In this study, we determined the cumulative acute exposure to OPs and CPs of Shanghai residents from vegetables and fruits (VFs). The food consumption data were obtained from the Shanghai Food Consumption Survey (SHFCS) of 2012-14 including a total of 1973 participants aged 2-90 years. The pesticide residue data were obtained from the Shanghai monitoring programme during 2008-11 with 34 organophosphates and 11 carbamates analysed in a total of 5335 samples of VFs. A probabilistic approach was performed as recommended by the EFSA, using the optimistic model with non-detects set as zero and with processing factors (PFs) being used and the pessimistic model with non-detects replaced by limit of detection (LOD) and without PFs. We used the relative potency factor (RPF) method to normalise the various pesticides to the index compound (IC) of methamidophos and chlorpyrifos separately. Only in the pessimistic model using methamidophos as the IC was there was small risk of exposure exceeding the ARfD (3 µg kg - 1 bw day - 1 ) in the populations of preschool children (0.029%), school-age children (0.022%) and adults (0.002%). There were no risk of exposure exceeding the ARfD of methamidophos in the optimistic model and of chlorpyrifos (100 µg kg - 1 bw day - 1 ) in both optimistic and pessimistic models in all three populations. Considering the Chinese habits of overwhelmingly eating processed food (vegetables being cooked, and fruits being washed or peeled), we conclude that little acute risk was found for the exposure to VF-sourced OPs and CPs in Shanghai.

Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy-metal pollution around coal gangue dump

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Zhao, H. Q.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

2014-06-01

The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and trend of soil heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy-metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in the order of ER(Cd) > ER(Pb) > ER(Cu) > ER(Cr) > ER(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor leading to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, then the fixed number of years exceeding the standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metals and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provided some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent or decrease heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in the Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

Dietary risk assessment of pesticides from vegetables and drinking water in gardening areas in Burkina Faso.

Science.gov (United States)

Lehmann, Edouard; Turrero, Nuria; Kolia, Marius; Konaté, Yacouba; de Alencastro, Luiz Felippe

2017-12-01

Vegetables and water samples have been collected around the lake of Loumbila in Burkina Faso. Pesticides residues in food commodities were analyzed using a modified QuEChERS extraction method prior analysis on GC-MS and UPLC-MS/MS of 31 pesticides. Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) were exceeded in 36% of the samples for seven pesticides: acetamiprid, carbofuran, chlorpyrifos, lambda-cyhalothrin, dieldrin, imidacloprid and profenofos. Exceedance of MRLs suggests a risk for the consumers and limits the opportunities of exportation. In order to define estimated daily intake, dietary surveys were conducted on 126 gardeners using a 24hours recall method. Single pesticide and cumulative exposure risks were assessed for children and adults. Risk was identified for: chlorpyrifos and lambda-cyhalothrin in acute and chronic exposure scenarios. Hazardous chronic exposure to the endocrine disruptor and probable carcinogen dieldrin was also detected. In the studied population, cumulative dietary exposure presented a risk (acute and chronic) for children and adults in respectively >17% and 4% of the cases when considering the worst case scenarios. Processing factor largely influenced the risk of occurrence suggesting that simple washing of vegetables with water considerably reduced the risk of hazardous exposure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methodological Considerations in Screening for Cumulative Environmental Health Impacts: Lessons Learned from a Pilot Study in California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lauren Zeise

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Polluting facilities and hazardous sites are often concentrated in low-income communities of color already facing additional stressors to their health. The influence of socioeconomic status is not considered in traditional models of risk assessment. We describe a pilot study of a screening method that considers both pollution burden and population characteristics in assessing the potential for cumulative impacts. The goal is to identify communities that warrant further attention and to thereby provide actionable guidance to decision- and policy-makers in achieving environmental justice. The method uses indicators related to five components to develop a relative cumulative impact score for use in comparing communities: exposures, public health effects, environmental effects, sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors. Here, we describe several methodological considerations in combining disparate data sources and report on the results of sensitivity analyses meant to guide future improvements in cumulative impact assessments. We discuss criteria for the selection of appropriate indicators, correlations between them, and consider data quality and the influence of choices regarding model structure. We conclude that the results of this model are largely robust to changes in model structure.

Changes in corneal endothelial cell density and the cumulative risk of corneal decompensation after Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kyoung Nam; Lee, Sung Bok; Lee, Yeon Hee; Lee, Jong Joo; Lim, Hyung Bin; Kim, Chang-Sik

2016-07-01

To evaluate changes in the corneal endothelial cell density (ECD) and corneal decompensation following Ahmed glaucoma valve (AGV) implantation. This study was retrospective and observational case series. Patients with refractory glaucoma who underwent AGV implantation and were followed >5 years were consecutively enrolled. We reviewed the medical records, including the results of central corneal specular microscopy. Of the 127 enrolled patients, the annual change in ECD (%) was determined using linear regression for 72 eyes evaluated at least four times using serial specular microscopic examination and compared with 31 control eyes (fellow glaucomatous eyes under medical treatment). The main outcome measures were cumulative risk of corneal decompensation and differences in the ECD loss rates between subjects and controls. The mean follow-up after AGV implantation was 43.1 months. There were no cases of postoperative tube-corneal touch. The cumulative risk of corneal decompensation was 3.3%, 5 years after AGV implantation. There was a more rapid loss of ECD in the 72 subject eyes compared with the 31 controls (-7.0% and -0.1%/year, respectively; p<0.001). However, the rate of loss decreased over time and statistical significance compared with control eyes disappeared after 2 years postoperatively: -10.7% from baseline to 1 year (p<0.01), -7.0% from 1 year to 2 years (p=0.037), -4.2% from 2 years to 3 years (p=0.230) and -2.7% from 3 years to the final follow-up (p=0.111). In case of uncomplicated AGV implantation, the cumulative risk of corneal decompensation was 3.3%, 5 years after the operation. The ECD loss was statistically greater in eyes with AGV than in control eyes without AGV, but the difference was significant only up to 2 years post surgery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Correlation of cumulative corticosteroid treatment with magnetic resonance imaging assessment of avascular femoral head necrosis in patients with multiple sclerosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nilufer Kale

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Increased risk of osteoporosis, fractures, and avascular necrosis (AVN has been suggested in multiple sclerosis (MS. Patients with MS are often exposed to corticosteroid treatment (CST during the disease course and conflicting reports exist regarding complications of CST. Our study aims to investigate the association between cumulative doses of CST and radiographic evaluation of AVN of the femoral head in MS. Twenty-six MS patients (mean age, 38.4±10 yr were enrolled and prospectively evaluated for AVN by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI. The mean disease duration was 11.5±8.5 years and mean expanded disability status scale (EDSS score was 3±2. The cumulative dosage of CST varied between 20 g and 60 g; patients were grouped into two categories: 1 CST between 20-40 g, 17 (65% patients; 2 CST ≥40 g; 9 (35% patients. The relationship between cumulative CST dosage and MRI diagnosis of AVN was stat­istically insignificant (P>0.9. Clarification of the cumulative effect of CST in the development of AVN is of great importance for future long-term steroid treatment strategies.

Analytic concepts for assessing risk as applied to human space flight

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1997-01-01

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles provide an effective framework for quantifying individual elements of risk, including the risk to astronauts and spacecraft of the radiation environment of space flight. The concept of QRA is based on a structured set of scenarios that could lead to different damage states initiated by either hardware failure, human error, or external events. In the context of a spacecraft risk assessment, radiation may be considered as an external event and analyzed in the same basic way as any other contributor to risk. It is possible to turn up the microscope on any particular contributor to risk and ask more detailed questions than might be necessary to simply assess safety. The methods of QRA allow for as much fine structure in the analysis as is desired. For the purpose of developing a basis for comprehensive risk management and considering the tendency to open-quotes fear anything nuclear,close quotes radiation risk is a prime candidate for examination beyond that necessary to answer the basic question of risk. Thus, rather than considering only the customary damage states of fatalities or loss of a spacecraft, it is suggested that the full range of damage be analyzed to quantify radiation risk. Radiation dose levels in the form of a risk curve accomplish such a result. If the risk curve is the complementary cumulative distribution function, then it answers the extended question of what is the likelihood of receiving a specific dose of radiation or greater. Such results can be converted to specific health effects as desired. Knowing the full range of the radiation risk of a space mission and the contributors to that risk provides the information necessary to take risk management actions [operational, design, scheduling of missions around solar particle events (SPE), etc.] that clearly control radiation exposure

Managing regional cumulative effects of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spaling, H.; Zwier, J.

2000-01-01

This paper demonstrates an approach to regional cumulative effects management using the case of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada. The 17 existing, approved, or planned projects, all concentrated in a relatively small region, pose significant challenges for conducting and reviewing cumulative effects assessment (CEA) on a project-by-project basis. In response, stakeholders have initiated a regional cumulative effects management system that is among the first such initiatives anywhere. Advantages of this system include (1) more efficient gathering and sharing of information, including a common regional database, (2) setting acceptable regional environmental thresholds for all projects, (3) collaborative assessment of similar cumulative effects from related projects, (4) co-ordinated regulatory review and approval process for overlapping CEAs, and (5) institutional empowerment from a Regional Sustainable Development Strategy administered by a public authority. This case provides a model for integrating project-based CEA with regional management of cumulative effects. (author)

Construction of a risk assessment system for chemical residues in agricultural products.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Shinai; Hong, Jiyeon; Lee, Dayeon; Paik, Minkyoung

2014-01-01

Continuous monitoring of chemical residues in agricultural and food products has been performed by various government bodies in South Korea. These bodies have made attempts to systematically manage this information by creating a monitoring database system as well as a system based on these data with which to assess the health risk of chemical residues in agricultural products. Meanwhile, a database system is being constructed consisting of information about monitoring and, following this, a demand for convenience has led to the need for an evaluation tool to be constructed with the data processing system. Also, in order to create a systematic and effective tool for the risk assessment of chemical residues in foods and agricultural products, various evaluation models are being developed, both domestically and abroad. Overseas, systems such as Dietary Exposure Evaluation Model: Food Commodity Intake Database and Cumulative and Aggregate Risk Evaluation System are being used; these use the US Environmental Protection Agency as a focus, while the EU has developed Pesticide Residue Intake Model for assessments of pesticide exposure through food intake. Following this, the National Academy of Agricultural Science (NAAS) created the Agricultural Products Risk Assessment System (APRAS) which supports the use and storage of monitoring information and risk assessments. APRAS efficiently manages the monitoring data produced by NAAS and creates an extraction feature included in the database system. Also, the database system in APRAS consists of a monitoring database system held by the NAAS and food consumption database system. Food consumption data is based on Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. This system is aimed at exposure and risk assessments for chemical residues in agricultural products with regards to different exposure scenarios.

Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simmons, C T; Matthews, H D

2016-01-01

Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO 2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO 2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO 2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO 2 . We find that when we isolate the CO 2 -induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO 2 . We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO 2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

Waste management project’s alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We examine the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives. ► We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. ► In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project’s alternatives. ► Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is examined. ► Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

Problem formulation for risk assessment of combined exposures to chemicals and other stressors in humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon, Keith R; Wilks, Martin F; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Moretto, Angelo; Pastoor, Timothy P; Phillips, Richard; Embry, Michelle R

2016-11-01

When the human health risk assessment/risk management paradigm was developed, it did not explicitly include a "problem formulation" phase. The concept of problem formulation was first introduced in the context of ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the pragmatic reason to constrain and focus ERAs on the key questions. However, this need also exists for human health risk assessment, particularly for cumulative risk assessment (CRA), because of its complexity. CRA encompasses the combined threats to health from exposure via all relevant routes to multiple stressors, including biological, chemical, physical and psychosocial stressors. As part of the HESI Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) Project, a framework for CRA was developed in which problem formulation plays a critical role. The focus of this effort is primarily on a chemical CRA (i.e., two or more chemicals) with subsequent consideration of non-chemical stressors, defined as "modulating factors" (ModFs). Problem formulation is a systematic approach that identifies all factors critical to a specific risk assessment and considers the purpose of the assessment, scope and depth of the necessary analysis, analytical approach, available resources and outcomes, and overall risk management goal. There are numerous considerations that are specific to multiple stressors, and proper problem formulation can help to focus a CRA to the key factors in order to optimize resources. As part of the problem formulation, conceptual models for exposures and responses can be developed that address these factors, such as temporal relationships between stressors and consideration of the appropriate ModFs.

An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory for Decision under Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Chateauneuf, A.

1999-01-01

Cumulative prospect theory was introduced by Tversky and Kahneman so as to combine the empirical realism of their original prospect theory with the theoretical advantages of Quiggin's rank-dependent utility. Preference axiomatizations were provided in several papers. All those axiomatizations,

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Dynamic prediction of cumulative incidence functions by direct binomial regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Grand, Mia K; de Witte, Theo J M; Putter, Hein

2018-03-25

In recent years there have been a series of advances in the field of dynamic prediction. Among those is the development of methods for dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function in a competing risk setting. These models enable the predictions to be updated as time progresses and more information becomes available, for example when a patient comes back for a follow-up visit after completing a year of treatment, the risk of death, and adverse events may have changed since treatment initiation. One approach to model the cumulative incidence function in competing risks is by direct binomial regression, where right censoring of the event times is handled by inverse probability of censoring weights. We extend the approach by combining it with landmarking to enable dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function. The proposed models are very flexible, as they allow the covariates to have complex time-varying effects, and we illustrate how to investigate possible time-varying structures using Wald tests. The models are fitted using generalized estimating equations. The method is applied to bone marrow transplant data and the performance is investigated in a simulation study. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Cumulative glycemia and microangiopathy in subjects with impaired glucose regulation in the Inter99 study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munch, Inger Christine; Larsen, Michael; Kessel, Line

2011-01-01

.8% (CI(95) 6.8-17.1%) in subjects with screen-detected diabetes compared to normoglycemic subjects, adjusted for age, sex, and smoking. The prevalences of microalbuminuria and retinopathy were significantly increased in subjects with screen-detected diabetes after adjusting for age, sex and systolic...... in subjects with abnormal glucose metabolism, most prominently in subjects with IFG+IGT and in subjects with screen-detected diabetes. These results provide the first objective evidence that cumulative glycemic load is increased at the earliest stage of impaired glucose regulation.......AIMS: To assess cumulative glycemia, microvascular characteristics, and associated risk factors for diabetes in subjects with impaired glucose regulation. METHODS: Cross-sectional, population-based study comprising systemic characteristics in 6487 participants and ocular characteristics in 970...

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Summary report of a workshop on establishing cumulative effects thresholds : a suggested approach for establishing cumulative effects thresholds in a Yukon context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

Increasingly, thresholds are being used as a land and cumulative effects assessment and management tool. To assist in the management of wildlife species such as woodland caribou, the Department of Indian and Northern Affairs (DIAND) Environment Directorate, Yukon sponsored a workshop to develop and use cumulative thresholds in the Yukon. The approximately 30 participants reviewed recent initiatives in the Yukon and other jurisdictions. The workshop is expected to help formulate a strategic vision for implementing cumulative effects thresholds in the Yukon. The key to success resides in building relationships with Umbrella Final Agreement (UFA) Boards, the Development Assessment Process (DAP), and the Yukon Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Act (YESAA). Broad support is required within an integrated resource management framework. The workshop featured discussions on current science and theory of cumulative effects thresholds. Potential data and implementation issues were also discussed. It was concluded that thresholds are useful and scientifically defensible. The threshold research results obtained in Alberta, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories are applicable to the Yukon. One of the best tools for establishing and tracking thresholds is habitat effectiveness. Effects must be monitored and tracked. Biologists must share their information with decision makers. Interagency coordination and assistance should be facilitated through the establishment of working groups. Regional land use plans should include thresholds. 7 refs.

Hygienic assessment of risk caused by application of graminis ke and rinkor vg herbicides

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.M. Vasileva

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Our research goal was to perform hygienic assessment of risks caused by Graminis KE and Rinkor VG herbicides for people working with them. We applied sanitary-hygienic and toxicological research techniques in our work in full conformity with valid technical regulatory documents and guidelines. We set the following research tasks: to analyze literature and information sources; to perform primary toxicological assessment of preparatory herbicides and study their acute toxicity together with sensitizing effects at intragastric introduction, cutaneous application, and inhalation exposure on laboratory animals; to examine herbicides cumulative effects and calculation their cumulation coefficient; to examine working conditions during a natural experiment when Graminis KE and Rinkor VG herbicides were applied and calculate risks for workers; to work out scientifically grounded recommendations on their safety application in agriculture. The examined herbicides, Graminis KE and Rinkor VG, are classified as substances with the 3rd hazard degree as per their toxicometric parameters (moderately hazardous substances. Calculated risks of complex (inhalant and dermal exposure to Gramins KE and Rinkor VG herbicides for workers (operators who refills them and those who spray plants with them when they are applied in agriculture don't exceed acceptable levels (are less than 1. Our work results allow to enrich a set of plant protectors which are applied in the country and to use such preparations in agriculture which are the least harmful for health and the environment. Application of Graminis KE and Rinkor VG herbicides will help to increase crops productivity.

Examining cumulative victimization, community violence exposure, and stigma as contributors to PTSD symptoms among high-risk young women.

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, Angie C; Bybee, Deborah; Greeson, Megan R

2014-05-01

This study examines patterns of lifetime victimization within the family, community violence exposure, and stigma as contributors to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms within a sample of 198 high-risk young women who are pregnant or parenting. We used cluster analysis to identify 5 profiles of cumulative victimization, based on participants' levels of witnessing intimate partner violence (IPV), physical abuse by an adult caregiver, and sexual victimization, all beginning by age 12. Hierarchical regression was used to examine these 5 clusters (ranging from a High All Victimization cluster characterized by high levels of all 3 forms of violence, to a Low All Victimization cluster characterized by low levels of all 3 forms), along with community violence exposure and stigma, as predictors of PTSD symptoms. We found that 3 of the cumulative victimization clusters, in comparison with Low All Victimization, were significant predictors of PTSD symptoms, as was stigma, while community violence exposure was not a significant predictor. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved

Assessing prevalence of trauma and the risk of Post-Traumatic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study estimates the cumulative occurrence of traumatic events and the risk of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-V) criteria, in a high-risk sample of youth in urban city of Lagos, Nigeria. Participants were interviewed about history of ...

Health risk assessment of chemical pollutants in a petrochemical complex

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F Golbabaie

2012-12-01

Full Text Available   Background and Aims: workers in petrochemical industries are exposed to various contaminants and are facing to serious hazards, therefore a comprehensive risk assessment program for identification of hazardous chemicals that affect human health and also determination of hazardous tasks and processes is necessary.     Methods : This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in three stages. First stage consisted of identifying hazardous chemicals and determination of chemicals risk ratio, the second stage included the evaluation of worker's exposure to hazardous chemicals, and the third stage was estimating the relative risk of blood cancer caused by exposure to benzene through epidemiological studies.     Results: With regard to risk assessment method, 40 chemicals were identified in this Petrochemical Company. Among them, Benzene introduced as the most hazardous chemical. The results of the second stage showed that site man workers in noon shift work and in aromatic site with mean exposure 4.29 ppm had the highest exposure to benzene. The results of estimated leukemia relative risk stage in benzene exposure, the highest relative risk in workers related to site man workers in aromatic units with cumulative benzene exposure of 4.149 ppm. Years that obtained the relative risk of 2.3. The statistical test results showed that the relationship between worker's exposure to benzene and their job was significant(p<0/001     Conclusion : This study showed that benzene with a risk ratio of 4.5 -5 have 5th rank in risk levels and this indicates that preventative actions regarding to this hazardous and carcinogenic chemical must be started as soon as possible.

Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predict post-traumatic stress disorder in postpartum African-American women.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauff, Nancy J; Fry-McComish, Judith; Chiodo, Lisa M

2017-08-01

To describe relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and post-traumatic stress in African-American postpartum women. Cumulative trauma exposure estimates for women in the USA range from 51-69%. During pregnancy, most trauma research has focused on physical injury to the mother. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with trauma and more prevalent in African-American women than women of other groups. Knowledge about both the rate and impact of cumulative trauma on pregnancy may contribute to our understanding of women seeking prenatal care, and disparities in infant morbidity and mortality. This retrospective, correlational, cross-sectional study took place on postpartum units of two Detroit hospitals. Participants were 150 African-American women aged between 18-45 who had given birth. Mothers completed the Cumulative Trauma Scale, Conflict Tactics Scale, Clinician Administered Post-traumatic Stress Scale, Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and a Demographic Data form. Descriptive statistics, correlations and multiple regressions were used for data analysis. All participants reported at least one traumatic event in their lifetime. Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predicted PTSD, with the trauma of a life-threatening event for a loved one reported by 60% of the sample. Nearly, one-fourth of the women screened were at risk for PTSD. Increased cumulative trauma, increased partner conflict and lower level of education were related to higher rates of PTSD symptoms. Both cumulative trauma and partner conflict in the past year predict PTSD. Reasoning was used most often for partner conflict resolution. The results of this study offer additional knowledge regarding relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and PTSD in African-American women. Healthcare providers need to be sensitive to patient life-threatening events, personal failures, abuse and other types of trauma. Current evidence supports the need to assess for

Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs.

Science.gov (United States)

Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Michel, Loïc N; Gobert, Sylvie; Sini, Maria; Boudouresque, Charles-François; Gambi, Maria-Cristina; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Lejeune, Pierre; Montefalcone, Monica; Pergent, Gerard; Pergent-Martini, Christine; Sanchez-Jerez, Pablo; Velimirov, Branko; Vizzini, Salvatrice; Abadie, Arnaud; Coll, Marta; Guidetti, Paolo; Micheli, Fiorenza; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-08-01

Effective ecosystem-based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components' vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

1988-09-01

Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment. To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Cumulative Risk and Impact Modeling on Environmental Chemical and Social Stressors.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Hongtai; Wang, Aolin; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Lam, Juleen; Sirota, Marina; Padula, Amy; Woodruff, Tracey J

2018-03-01

The goal of this review is to identify cumulative modeling methods used to evaluate combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors. The specific review question is: What are the existing quantitative methods used to examine the cumulative impacts of exposures to environmental chemical and social stressors on health? There has been an increase in literature that evaluates combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors on health using regression models; very few studies applied other data mining and machine learning techniques to this problem. The majority of studies we identified used regression models to evaluate combined effects of multiple environmental and social stressors. With proper study design and appropriate modeling assumptions, additional data mining methods may be useful to examine combined effects of environmental and social stressors.

Development of a Quantitative Framework for Regulatory Risk Assessments: Probabilistic Approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.

2003-11-01

of correlation), and determining convergence may all affect calculated results. The report discusses the key issues for each stage and how these issues can be addressed in implementing probabilistic calculations and considered in reviews of such calculations. An important element of an assessment, whichever approach is adopted for undertaking calculations, is the communication of results. The report describes the use of outputs specific to probabilistic calculations, such as probability distribution and cumulative distribution functions, and also the application of general types of output for presenting probabilistic results. Illustrating the way in which a disposal system may evolve is an important part of assessments, and the report describes the issues that must be considered in using and interpreting risk and dose versus time plots

Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus P.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Huffaker, Ray G.

2017-12-01

With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a 2-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall. Here, the year with more intense, less-frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.

Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2011-01-01

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

A global review of cumulative pressure and impact assessments in marine environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samuli Korpinen

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Ever more extensive use of marine space by human activities and greater demands for marine natural resources has led to increases in both duration and spatial extent of pressures on the marine environment. In parallel, the global crisis of decreasing biodiversity and loss of habitats has revitalized scientific research on human impacts and lead to methodological development of cumulative pressure and impact assessments (CPIA. In Europe alone, almost twenty CPIAs have been published in the past 10 years and some more in other sea regions of the world. In this review, we have analysed 36 recent marine CPIAs and focused on their methodological approaches. We were especially interested in uncovering methodological similarities, identifying best practices and analysing whether the CPIAs have addressed the recent criticism. The review results showed surprisingly similar methodological approaches in >50% of the studies, raising hopes for finding coherence in international assessment efforts. Although the CPIA methods showed relatively few innovative approaches for addressing the major caveats of previous CPIAs, the most recent studies indicate that improved approaches may be soon found.

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Alchemy to reason: Effective use of Cumulative Effects Assessment in resource management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hegmann, George; Yarranton, G.A.

2011-01-01

Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) is a tool that can be useful in making decisions about natural resource management and allocation. The decisions to be made include those (i) necessary to construct planning and regulatory frameworks to control development activity so that societal goals will be achieved and (ii) whether or not to approve individual development projects, with or without conditions. The evolution of CEA into a more successful tool cannot occur independently of the evolution of decision making processes. Currently progress is painfully slow on both fronts. This paper explores some opportunities to accelerate improvements in decision making in natural resource management and in the utility of CEA as a tool to assist in making such decisions. The focus of the paper is on how to define the public interest by determining what is acceptable.

Pharmacoepidemiology of opiate use in the neonatal ICU: Increasing cumulative doses and iatrogenic opiate withdrawal.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Tamorah; Erfe, Betty Luan; Ezell, Tarrah; Gauda, Estelle

2015-01-01

Neonatal intensive care unit (ICU) care involves use of opiates to treat postoperative, ventilated, or chronically ill infants. Opiates provide necessary analgesia and sedation, but the morbidities include prolonged neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) and extended length of stay for dose tapering. Our objective was to quantify trends in opiate exposure in a tertiary care NICU. The authors hypothesize that medical opiate exposure and resultant ICU-acquired NAS would increase over time. Retrospective cross-sectional cohort study. Tertiary care NICU. High-risk inborn infants admitted in fiscal years 2003-2004, 2007-2008, and 2010-2011. Average cumulative morphine exposure (all opiate doses converted to morphine equivalents) per time epoch was compared in cohorts of clinically similar infants. Linear regression was used to assess the primary outcome, assessing changes in opiate exposure over time. Sixty-three infants were included in the final analysis. The primary analysis assessing cumulative opiate exposure per infant showed an increase of 134 mg per time epoch (95% CI-12, 279 mg, p-value 0.071). There was a statistically significant increase in the percent of infants with a diagnosis of iatrogenic NAS, increasing from 9 to 35 to 50 percent (p-value 0.012).

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Valued ecosystem components for watershed cumulative effects: an analysis of environmental impact assessments in the South Saskatchewan River watershed, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Ball, Murray A; Noble, Bram F; Dubé, Monique G

2013-07-01

The accumulating effects of human development are threatening water quality and availability. In recognition of the constraints to cumulative effects assessment (CEA) under traditional environmental impact assessment (EIA), there is an emerging body of research dedicated to watershed-based cumulative effects assessment (WCEA). To advance the science of WCEA, however, a standard set of ecosystem components and indicators is required that can be used at the watershed scale, to inform effects-based understanding of cumulative change, and at the project scale, to inform regulatory-based project based impact assessment and mitigation. A major challenge, however, is that it is not clear how such ecosystem components and indicators for WCEA can or should be developed. This study examined the use of aquatic ecosystem components and indicators in EIA practice in the South Saskatchewan River watershed, Canada, to determine whether current practice at the project scale could be "scaled up" to support ecosystem component and indicator development for WCEA. The hierarchy of assessment components and indicators used in a sample of 35 environmental impact assessments was examined and the factors affecting aquatic ecosystem component selection and indicator use were identified. Results showed that public environmental impact statements are not necessarily publically accessible, thus limiting opportunities for data and information sharing from the project to the watershed scale. We also found no consistent terminology across the sample of impact statements, thus making comparison of assessment processes and results difficult. Regulatory compliance was found to be the dominant factor influencing the selection of ecosystem components and indicators for use in project assessment, rather than scientific reasoning, followed by the mandate of the responsible government agency for the assessment, public input to the assessment process, and preexisting water licensing arrangements external

An inferential and descriptive statistical examination of the relationship between cumulative work metrics and injury in Major League Baseball pitchers.

Science.gov (United States)

Karakolis, Thomas; Bhan, Shivam; Crotin, Ryan L

2013-08-01

In Major League Baseball (MLB), games pitched, total innings pitched, total pitches thrown, innings pitched per game, and pitches thrown per game are used to measure cumulative work. Often, pitchers are allocated limits, based on pitches thrown per game and total innings pitched in a season, in an attempt to prevent future injuries. To date, the efficacy in predicting injuries from these cumulative work metrics remains in question. It was hypothesized that the cumulative work metrics would be a significant predictor for future injury in MLB pitchers. Correlations between cumulative work for pitchers during 2002-07 and injury days in the following seasons were examined using regression analyses to test this hypothesis. Each metric was then "binned" into smaller cohorts to examine trends in the associated risk of injury for each cohort. During the study time period, 27% of pitchers were injured after a season in which they pitched. Although some interesting trends were noticed during the binning process, based on the regression analyses, it was found that no cumulative work metric was a significant predictor for future injury. It was concluded that management of a pitcher's playing schedule based on these cumulative work metrics alone could not be an effective means of preventing injury. These findings indicate that an integrated approach to injury prevention is required. This approach will likely involve advanced cumulative work metrics and biomechanical assessment.

Lung cancer risk in relation to traffic-related nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs exposure: a preliminary probabilistic assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Chung-Min; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu; Ju, Yun-Ru; Li, Wen-Hsuan; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

2011-06-15

Exposures to carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been linked to human lung cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess lung cancer risk caused by inhalation exposure to nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs at the population level in Taiwan appraised with recent published data. A human respiratory tract model was linked with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to estimate deposition fraction and internal organic-specific PAHs doses. A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to estimate potential lung cancer risk. We reanalyzed particle size distribution, total-PAHs, particle-bound benzo(a)pyrene (B[a]P) and PM concentrations. A dose-response profile describing the relationships between external B[a]P concentration and lung cancer risk response was constructed based on population attributable fraction (PAF). We found that 90% probability lung cancer risks ranged from 10(-5) to 10(-4) for traffic-related nano and ultrafine particle-bound PAHs, indicating a potential lung cancer risk. The particle size-specific PAF-based excess annual lung cancer incidence rate due to PAHs exposure was estimated to be less than 1 per 100,000 population, indicating a mild risk factor for lung cancer. We concluded that probabilistic risk assessment linked PAF for limiting cumulative PAHs emissions to reduce lung cancer risk plays a prominent role in future government risk assessment program. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert

1990-01-01

Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

Genetic moderation of multiple pathways linking early cumulative socioeconomic adversity and young adults' cardiometabolic disease risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Wickrama, Kandauda A S; Lee, Tae Kyoung; O'Neal, Catherine Walker

2018-02-01

Recent research suggests that psychosocial resources and life stressors are mediating pathways explaining socioeconomic variation in young adults' health risks. However, less research has examined both these pathways simultaneously and their genetic moderation. A nationally representative sample of 11,030 respondents with prospective data collected over 13 years from the National Study of Adolescent to Adult Health was examined. First, the association between early cumulative socioeconomic adversity and young adults' (ages 25-34) cardiometabolic disease risk, as measured by 10 biomarkers, through psychosocial resources (educational attainment) and life stressors (accelerated transition to adulthood) was examined. Second, moderation of these pathways by the serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region gene (5-HTTLPR) was examined. There was evidence for the association between early socioeconomic adversity and young adults' cardiometabolic disease risk directly and indirectly through educational attainment and accelerated transitions. These direct and mediating pathways were amplified by the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism. These findings elucidate how early adversity can have an enduring influence on young adults' cardiometabolic disease risk directly and indirectly through psychosocial resources and life stressors and their genetic moderation. This information suggests that effective intervention and prevention programs should focus on early adversity, youth educational attainment, and their transition to young adulthood.

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

2012-01-01

The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

Contextual risk and child psychopathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Flouri, Eirini

2008-10-01

In developmental psychopathology it almost goes without saying that contextual risk factors do not occur in isolation and that it is the combination of various risk factors that portends numerous negative child outcomes. Despite this, the body of literature that examines the relation between multiple risk exposure and child psychopathology using a cumulative risk approach is still relatively small. Even when studies use a cumulative risk approach they rarely test properly whether the relation between cumulative risk and child psychopathology is linear or nonlinear, with consequences for both theory development and intervention design: if cumulative risk impacts problem behavior in a positively accelerated exponential manner, for instance, it means that exposure to multiple risk is especially difficult to manage as problem behavior accelerates at a critical level of risk. Furthermore, few studies have actually examined factors that protect from negative outcomes in those exposed to cumulative risk and even fewer have explored cumulative protection in relation to cumulative risk. On the other hand, there is the view that a cumulative risk approach at least implicitly assumes that risk factors are, in essence, interchangeable. According to this view, the importance of testing for specificity should not be underestimated. Finally, the renewed interest in the role of neighborhood risk in child development has initiated a lively debate as to whether contextual risk should be operationalized at the family or the area level. In this letter I discuss these issues, and offer some suggestions as to how future research can address them.

Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

2012-05-21

The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

Risk assessment of exposure to radon decay products

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monchaux, G

1999-07-01

The aim of this project was to assess the risk due to inhalation of radon and its decay products using an horizontal approach across a large scale research programme. The central objective was the assessment of human risk which requires combination of several topics involving a multidisciplinary approach. In the Aerosol Studies Group, progress was achieved in improvement, calibration and automation of experimental techniques for continuous and integrated measurements of the unattached fraction f{sub p}- and equilibrium factor F- values. Measurements were performed to determine the variation of size distributions of unattached and aerosol-associated radon decay products under typical living conditions. All aerosol groups performed controlled chamber studies to understand the basic behaviour of airborne activity concentrations. Measurements were performed to determine neutralisation rates of {sup 218}Po, to understand the cluster growth with residence time and to understand the hygroscopic growth of aerosol particles. In the Modelling Group, the programme RADEP has been developed to calculate the weighted committed equivalent lung dose per unit exposure of radon progeny (H{sub w}/P{sub p}) which implements the ICRP Publication 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model (HRTM). The stochastic deposition model (IDEAL) has been compared with the deposition model used by the HRTM, and the agreement between the two deposition models was excellent. A deterministic radon progeny dosimetry model (RADOS) has been developed. This model includes all bronchial airway generations compared with the HRTM that groups the 16 airway generations into three regions. Initial calculations with RADOS show that the basal and secretory cell doses are slightly smaller compared with that of the HRTM. A sensitivity analysis has been performed that has identified those HRTM model parameters that most affect the Hw/Pp. A stochastic rat deposition model (RALMO) and a clearance model for the rat based on the

Risk assessment of exposure to radon decay products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monchaux, G.

1999-01-01

The aim of this project was to assess the risk due to inhalation of radon and its decay products using an horizontal approach across a large scale research programme. The central objective was the assessment of human risk which requires combination of several topics involving a multidisciplinary approach. In the Aerosol Studies Group, progress was achieved in improvement, calibration and automation of experimental techniques for continuous and integrated measurements of the unattached fraction f p - and equilibrium factor F- values. Measurements were performed to determine the variation of size distributions of unattached and aerosol-associated radon decay products under typical living conditions. All aerosol groups performed controlled chamber studies to understand the basic behaviour of airborne activity concentrations. Measurements were performed to determine neutralisation rates of 218 Po, to understand the cluster growth with residence time and to understand the hygroscopic growth of aerosol particles. In the Modelling Group, the programme RADEP has been developed to calculate the weighted committed equivalent lung dose per unit exposure of radon progeny (H w /P p ) which implements the ICRP Publication 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model (HRTM). The stochastic deposition model (IDEAL) has been compared with the deposition model used by the HRTM, and the agreement between the two deposition models was excellent. A deterministic radon progeny dosimetry model (RADOS) has been developed. This model includes all bronchial airway generations compared with the HRTM that groups the 16 airway generations into three regions. Initial calculations with RADOS show that the basal and secretory cell doses are slightly smaller compared with that of the HRTM. A sensitivity analysis has been performed that has identified those HRTM model parameters that most affect the Hw/Pp. A stochastic rat deposition model (RALMO) and a clearance model for the rat based on the HRTM have been

Assessment of fracture risk in a cohort of Egyptian female Systemic Lupus erythematosus patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eman A. Hafez

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Aim of the work: To assess the fracture risk in a cohort of Egyptian systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE females in correlation to some disease variables. Patients and methods: Seventy female SLE patients ≥40 years old were enrolled with detailed history taking, assessment of disease activity and damage index. Measurement of Serum calcium, phosphorus and alkaline phosphatase, bone mineral density (BMD by dual emission X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA at lumbar spine (LS and femoral neck (FN, serum osteocalcin level and World Health Organization (WHO fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®. Results: 20% of the patients had LS osteoporosis, 35.7% LS osteopenia, 8.6% FN osteoporosis, and 42.9% FN osteopenia. Ten-year risk of major and hip fractures was high in SLE patients evidenced by FRAX-Major ≥20% in 10% of patients, and FRAX-Hip ≥3% in 27.1% of patients. Serum osteocalcin level was significantly decreased in SLE patients with lower BMD than those with normal BMD, and significantly decreased in patients with osteoporosis than those with osteopenia. A significant negative correlation was found between osteocalcin level and age of patients, disease duration, disease activity and damage index scores, current intravenous pulse and cumulative steroids, immunosuppressants, anticoagulants, but there was a positive correlation with antimalarials and calcium supplements. Conclusion: Ten-year risk of major and hip fractures was high in SLE patients. Increasing age, disease duration, high anti-DNA titres, higher disease activity and damage index were associated with a higher fracture risk. FRAX predicted fractures among SLE patients with normal and low bone mass not just those with frank osteoporosis. Physicians should be alerted to the higher risk of future fractures in SLE patients for periodic monitoring. Keywords: Systemic lupus erythematosus, Bone mineral density, Osteoporosis, Fracture risk, Fracture risk assessment tool

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Synergistic effect of cumulative corticosteroid dose and immunosuppressants on avascular necrosis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, H H; Bang, S Y; Won, S; Park, Y; Yi, J H; Joo, Y B; Lee, H S; Bae, S C

2018-01-01

Objectives Avascular necrosis (AVN) is one of the most common causes of organ damage in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and often causes serious physical disability. The aims of this study were to investigate clinical risk factors associated with symptomatic AVN and to analyze their synergistic effects in a large SLE cohort in Korea. Methods Patients with SLE were enrolled and followed from 1998 to 2014 in the Hanyang BAE Lupus cohort, and damage was measured annually according to the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI). AVN was confirmed by imaging study if patients had symptoms. To determine risk factors for AVN, clinical, laboratory and therapeutic variables were analyzed by logistic regression. Relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), attributable proportion (AP), and synergy index (S) were calculated to measure interactions between significant variables. Results Among 1219 SLE patients, symptomatic AVN was the most common type of musculoskeletal damage (10.8%, n = 132). SLE patients with AVN showed an earlier onset age, demonstrated AVN more commonly in conjunction with certain other clinical manifestations such as renal and neuropsychiatric disorders, and received significantly higher total cumulative corticosteroid dose and immunosuppressive agents than did patients without AVN. However, in multivariable analysis, only two variables including use of a cumulative corticosteroid dose greater than 20 g (odds ratio (OR) 3.62, p = 0.015) and use of immunosuppressants including cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil (OR 4.51, p AVN. Patients with cumulative corticosteroid dose > 20 g and immunosuppressant use had a 15.44-fold increased risk for AVN, compared with patients without these risk factors ( p AVN in our Korean lupus cohort. Conclusions An individual risk assessment for AVN development should be made prior to and during treatment for SLE

Cumulative Effects of Mothers' Risk and Promotive Factors on Daughters' Disruptive Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

van der Molen, Elsa; Hipwell, Alison E.; Vermeiren, Robert; Loeber, Rolf

2012-01-01

Little is known about the ways in which the accumulation of maternal factors increases or reduces risk for girls' disruptive behavior during preadolescence. In the current study, maternal risk and promotive factors and the severity of girls' disruptive behavior were assessed annually among girls' ages 7-12 in an urban community sample (N = 2043).…

Cumulative environmental impacts and integrated coastal management: the case of Xiamen, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Xiongzhi; Hong, Huasheng; Charles, Anthony T

2004-07-01

This paper examines the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts and the implementation of integrated coastal management within the harbour of Xiamen, China, an urban region in which the coastal zone is under increasing pressure as a result of very rapid economic growth. The first stage of analysis incorporates components of a cumulative effects assessment, including (a) identification of sources of environmental impacts, notably industrial expansion, port development, shipping, waste disposal, aquaculture and coastal construction, (b) selection of a set of valued ecosystem components, focusing on circulation and siltation, water quality, sediment, the benthic community, and mangrove forests, and (c) use of a set of key indicators to examine cumulative impacts arising from the aggregate of human activities. In the second stage of analysis, the paper describes and assesses the development of an institutional framework for integrated coastal management in Xiamen, one that combines policy and planning (including legislative and enforcement mechanisms) with scientific and monitoring mechanisms (including an innovative 'marine functional zoning' system). The paper concludes that the integrated coastal management framework in Xiamen has met all relevant requirements for 'integration' as laid out in the literature, and has explicitly incorporated consideration of cumulative impacts within its management and monitoring processes.

Cumulative effect assessment in Canada: a regional framework for aquatic ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dube, Monique G.

2003-01-01

Sustainable development of the aquatic environment depends upon routine and defensible cumulative effects assessment (CEA). CEA is the process of predicting the consequences of development relative to an assessment of existing environmental quality. Theoretically, it provides an on-going mechanism to evaluate if levels of development exceed the environment's assimilative capacity; i.e., its ability to sustain itself. In practice, the link between CEA and sustainable development has not been realized because CEA concepts and methods have developed along two dichotomous tracks. One track views CEA as an extension of the environmental assessment (EA) process for project developments. Under this track, stressor-based (S-B) methods have been developed where the emphasis is on local, project-related stressors, their link with aquatic indicators, and the potential for environmental effects through stressor-indicator interactions. S-B methods focus on the proposed development and prediction of project-related effects. They lack a mechanism to quantify existing aquatic quality especially at scales broader than an isolated development. This limitation results in the prediction of potential effects relative to a poorly defined baseline state. The other track views CEA as a broader, regional assessment tool where effects-based (E-B) methods specialize in quantification of existing aquatic effects over broad spatial scales. However, the predictive capabilities of E-B methods are limited because they are retrospective, i.e., the stressor causing the effect is identified after the effect has been measured. When used in isolation, S-B and E-B methods do not address CEA in the context necessary for sustainable development. However, if the strengths of these approaches were integrated into a holistic framework for CEA, an operational mechanism would exist to better monitor and assess sustainable development of our aquatic resources. This paper reviews the existing conceptual basis

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

Understanding the Relation of Low Income to HPA-Axis Functioning in Preschool Children: Cumulative Family Risk and Parenting as Pathways to Disruptions in Cortisol

Science.gov (United States)

Zalewski, Maureen; Lengua, Liliana J.; Kiff, Cara J.; Fisher, Philip A.

2012-01-01

This study examined the relation of low income and poverty to cortisol levels, and tested potential pathways from low income to disruptions in cortisol through cumulative family risk and parenting. The sample of 306 mothers and their preschool children included 29 % families at or near poverty, 27 % families below the median income, and the…

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

What do experts stakeholders think about chemical risks and uncertainties. An Internet survey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Assmuth, T.; Lyytimaeki, J.; Hilden, M.; Lindholm, M.; Munier, B.

2007-07-01

This report presents results from a web-based explorative survey on integrated risk assessment. The survey was conducted in the EU-funded project NoMiracle (Novel Methods for Risk Assessment of Cumulative Stressors in Europe) which develops methods for assessing cumulative risks from combined exposures to multiple stressors. The objectives of the survey were to give a general picture of perceptions and views among experts and stakeholders concerning risks, risk assessment and risk management. The survey focused on chemicals with an emphasis on information related to complex risks and uncertainties in a management context. The methodology of the survey combined traditional multiple choice questions and a novel approach that charted the importance of different types of information in two-dimensional graphs describing simultaneously use in regulatory procedures and public discussion. Another part was linked to new methods of presenting risks and explored the ranking of separate and cumulative risks in map grids. The survey was e-mailed to 952 recipients representing researchers, national and EU level administrators, enterprises, NGOs and international organizations, and most EU member states and some other countries. The response rate (26 %) can be considered acceptable but limits the possibilities to make quantitative claims concerning the views held by different groups although it gives an overview of the types of views one encounter among experts. A key finding was the pronounced variability of concepts and views regarding risks and uncertainties, and regarding information and knowledge about these. Opinions on risks and risk assessment, particularly on integrated risk assessment, on related principles, and on the role of experts are genuinely variable. They cannot be reduced to any simple model, and cannot (and need not) be dispelled in a forced manner. The observations should be taken into account in the development and application of novel methods for risk

Preliminary Risk Assessment of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Mullen, M.A.; Foxx, T.S.

1998-10-01

The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is the fourth threatened or endangered species to undergo a preliminary assessment for estimating potential risk from environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The assessments are being conducted as part of a three-year project to develop a habitat management plan for threatened and endangered species and species of concern at the Laboratory. For the preliminary assessment, estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (HIs). This assessment included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals) to 100 simulated nest sites located within flycatcher potential habitat. Sources of contaminant values were 10,000-ft{sup 2} grid cells within an Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU). This EEU was estimated around the potential habitat and was based on the maximum home range for the fly catcher identified in the scientific literature. The tools used included a custom FORTRAN program, ECORSK5, and a geographic information system. Food consumption and soil ingestion contaminant pathways were addressed in the assessment. Using a four-category risk evaluation, HI results indicate no appreciable impact is expected to the southwestern willow flycatcher. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, flycatcher habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain low levels of risk from contaminants.

Preliminary Risk Assessment of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Mullen, M.A.; Foxx, T.S.

1998-01-01

The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is the fourth threatened or endangered species to undergo a preliminary assessment for estimating potential risk from environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The assessments are being conducted as part of a three-year project to develop a habitat management plan for threatened and endangered species and species of concern at the Laboratory. For the preliminary assessment, estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (HIs). This assessment included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals) to 100 simulated nest sites located within flycatcher potential habitat. Sources of contaminant values were 10,000-ft 2 grid cells within an Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU). This EEU was estimated around the potential habitat and was based on the maximum home range for the fly catcher identified in the scientific literature. The tools used included a custom FORTRAN program, ECORSK5, and a geographic information system. Food consumption and soil ingestion contaminant pathways were addressed in the assessment. Using a four-category risk evaluation, HI results indicate no appreciable impact is expected to the southwestern willow flycatcher. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, flycatcher habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain low levels of risk from contaminants

Tools and perspectives for assessing chemical mixtures and multiple stressors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Løkke, Hans; Ragas, Ad M. J.; Holmstrup, Martin

2013-01-01

The present paper summarizes the most important insights and findings of the EU NoMiracle project with a focus on (1) risk assessment of chemical mixtures, (2) combinations of chemical and natural stressors, and (3) the receptor-oriented approach in cumulative risk assessment. The project aimed...... is suggested. The results are discussed in the light of recent developments in risk assessment of mixtures and multiple stressors....

The association between high levels of cumulative life stress and aberrant resting state EEG dynamics in old age.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Amanda C; Cooper, Nicholas R

2017-07-01

Cumulative experienced stress produces shortcomings in old adults' cognitive performance. These are reflected in electrophysiological changes tied to task execution. This study explored whether stress-related aberrations in older adults' electroencephalographic (EEG) activity were also apparent in the system at rest. To this effect, the amount of stressful life events experienced by 60 young and 60 elderly participants were assessed in conjunction with resting state power changes in the delta, theta, alpha, and beta frequencies during a resting EEG recording. Findings revealed elevated levels of delta power among elderly individuals reporting high levels of cumulative life stress. These differed significantly from young high and low stress individuals and old adults with low levels of stress. Increases of delta activity have been linked to the emergence of conditions such as Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment. Thus, a potential interpretation of our findings associates large amounts of cumulative stress with an increased risk of developing age-related cognitive pathologies in later life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

2017-04-01

1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses

Modeling cumulative effects in life cycle assessment: the case of fertilizer in wheat production contributing to the global warming potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Laratte, Bertrand; Guillaume, Bertrand; Kim, Junbeum; Birregah, Babiga

2014-05-15

This paper aims at presenting a dynamic indicator for life cycle assessment (LCA) measuring cumulative impacts over time of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fertilizers used for wheat cultivation and production. Our approach offers a dynamic indicator of global warming potential (GWP), one of the most used indicator of environmental impacts (e.g. in the Kyoto Protocol). For a case study, the wheat production in France was selected and considered by using data from official sources about fertilizer consumption and production of wheat. We propose to assess GWP environmental impact based on LCA method. The system boundary is limited to the fertilizer production for 1 ton of wheat produced (functional unit) from 1910 to 2010. As applied to wheat production in France, traditional LCA shows a maximum GWP impact of 500 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production, whereas the GWP impact of wheat production over time with our approach to dynamic LCA and its cumulative effects increases to 18,000 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production. In this paper, only one substance and one impact assessment indicator are presented. However, the methodology can be generalized and improved by using different substances and indicators. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Complete cumulative index (1963-1983)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

This complete cumulative index covers all regular and special issues and supplements published by Atomic Energy Review (AER) during its lifetime (1963-1983). The complete cumulative index consists of six Indexes: the Index of Abstracts, the Subject Index, the Title Index, the Author Index, the Country Index and the Table of Elements Index. The complete cumulative index supersedes the Cumulative Indexes for Volumes 1-7: 1963-1969 (1970), and for Volumes 1-10: 1963-1972 (1972); this Index also finalizes Atomic Energy Review, the publication of which has recently been terminated by the IAEA

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

In vivo measurements of lead-210 for assessing cumulative radon exposure in uranium miners

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guilmette, R.A.; Laurer, G.R.; Lambert, W.E.; Gilliland, F.D.

1995-01-01

It has long been recognized that a major contributor to the uncertainty in risk analysis of lung cancer in uranium and other hard rock miners is the estimation of total radon progeny exposure of individual miners under study. These uncertainties arise from the fact that only a limited number of measurements of airborne 222 Rn progeny concentrations were made in the mines during the times that the miners were being exposed, and that dosimeters capable of integrating the Rn progeny exposures of the miners did not exist. Historically, the cumulative exposures for individual uranium and other hard rock miners have been calculated by combining the employee's work history, which may or may not have included time spent at different jobs within the mines and at different locations within the mines, with whatever periodic measurements of Rn and Rn progeny were available. The amount and quality of the measurement data varied enormously from mine to mine and from population to population. Because the quality of the exposure data collected during the period of active mining in the United STates cannot now be altered substantially, significant improvement in individual miner exposure estimates is only likely to be achieved if a new cumulative exposure metric is developed and implemented. The decay chain of Rn includes the production of 210 Pb, which can accumulate in the skeleton in amounts proportional to the intake of Rn progeny. We hypothesize that the in vivo measurement of 210 Pb in the skulls of miners will provide such a metric. In summary, the primary purpose of this pilot study to demonstrate the feasibility of measuring 210 Pb in the heads of former uranium miners has been accomplished

Assessing environmental impacts on stream water quality: the use of cumulative flux and cumulative flux difference approaches to deforestation of the Hafren Forest, mid-Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Neal

2002-01-01

Full Text Available A method for examining the impacts of disturbance on stream water quality based on paired catchment “controlâ€? and “responseâ€? water quality time series is described in relation to diagrams of cumulative flux and cumulative flux difference. The paper describes the equations used and illustrates the patterns expected for idealised flux changes followed by an application to stream water quality data for a spruce forested catchment, the Hore, subjected to clear fell. The water quality determinands examined are sodium, chloride, nitrate, calcium and acid neutralisation capacity. The anticipated effects of felling are shown in relation to reduction in mist capture and nitrate release with felling as well as to the influence of weathering and cation exchange mechanisms, but in a much clearer way than observed previously using other approaches. Keywords: Plynlimon, stream, Hore, acid neutralisation capacity, calcium, chloride, nitrate, sodium, cumulative flux, flux

Health Impact Assessment: Linking Public Health to ...

Science.gov (United States)

The goal of this presentation is to explore how HIA can help inform hazardous waste permitting regulations and incorporate community vulnerability and cumulative impacts to their potential health risks into permitting decision making by the California Department of Toxic Substances Control. Presented the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) at the State of California Cumulative Impacts and Community Vulnerability Symposium on July 27 in Diamond Bar, CA.

Somatic involvement assessed through a cumulative score of clinical severity in patients with eating disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Scanelli, Giovanni; Gualandi, Malvina; Simoni, Marzia; Manzato, Emilia

2014-03-01

To evaluate the overall somatic involvement in patients with eating disorders (EDs). The medical records of 206 patients (age 15-56 years, 96.1% females) with diagnosis of anorexia nervosa (AN, n = 63, 30.6%), bulimia nervosa (BN, n = 78, 37.9%), or eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS, n = 65, 31.6 %) were analyzed. A cumulative score of clinical severity (SCS) was computed according to the presence of physical, instrumental, and laboratory abnormalities, as well as to their prognostic impact. Based on the tertile distribution of SCS, three levels of severity were defined: low, medium, and high. A medium/high level of severity was found in 63% of the whole sample, 89% of AN, 49% of BN, and 55% of EDNOS. In the whole sample, the risk of medium/high SCS was significantly and inversely related to the body mass index (BMI) and to the lifetime minimum BMI. The severity level was significantly and positively associated with diagnosis of AN, duration of amenorrhea C1 year, and presence of ED-related symptoms. EDNOS patients showed a higher risk for increased SCS than BN patients, although not significantly. The non-negligible frequency of a relevant somatic involvement in patients with EDNOS suggests that a transdiagnostic scoring system might be helpful to identify ED cases at risk of medical complications.

Cumulative Intracranial Tumor Volume Augments the Prognostic Value of Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment Model for Survival in Patients with Melanoma Cerebral Metastases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hirshman, Brian R; Wilson, Bayard R; Ali, Mir Amaan

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment scale (ds-GPA) for patients with melanoma brain metastasis (BM) utilizes only 2 key prognostic variables: Karnofsky performance status and the number of intracranial metastases. We wished to determine whether inclusion of cumulative ...

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Association Between Cumulative Psychosocial Risk and Cervical Human Papillomavirus Infection Among Female Adolescents in a Free Vaccination Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Linares, Lourdes Oriana; Shankar, Viswanathan; Diaz, Angela; Nucci-Sack, Anne; Strickler, Howard D; Peake, Ken; Weiss, Jocelyn; Burk, Robert D; Schlecht, Nicolas F

2015-10-01

This study investigated the association of cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) infection with cumulative psychosocial risk reflecting family disadvantage, psychological distress, and unhealthy lifestyle. The sample (N = 745) comprised sexually active female adolescent patients (12-19 yr), primarily ethnic minorities, enrolled in a free HPV vaccination program. Subjects completed questionnaires and provided cervical swabs for HPV DNA testing. Unweighted and weighted principal component analyses for categorical data were used to derive multisystemic psychosocial risk indices using 9 indicators: low socioeconomic status, lack of adult involvement, not attending high school/college, history of treatment for depression/anxiety, antisocial/delinquent behavior, number of recent sexual partners, use of alcohol, use of drugs, and dependency risk for alcohol/drugs. The association between cervical HPV (any type, high-risk types, vaccine types) assayed by polymerase chain reaction and self-reported number of psychosocial risk indicators was estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Subjects had a median of 3 psychosocial risk indicators. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed associations with unweighted and weighted number of psychosocial indicators for HPV any type (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-1.2), with the strongest associations between weighted drug/alcohol use, drug/alcohol dependency risk, and antisocial/delinquent behavior and detection of HPV vaccine types (aOR = 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.0) independent of number of recent sexual partners and vaccine dose (0-3). Increased HPV infections including HPV vaccine types were associated with greater number of psychosocial risk indicators even after controlling for demographics, sexual behavior, history of chlamydia, and vaccine dose.

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

Cumulative absolute breast cancer risk for young women treated for Hodgkin lymphoma

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Travis, L.B.; Hill, D.A.; Dores, G.M.; Gospodarowicz, M.; Leeuwen, van F.E.; Holowaty, E.; Glimelius, B.; Andersson, M.; Pukkala, E.; Lynch, C.F.; Pee, D.; Smith, S.A.; Veer, van 't M.B.; Joensuu, T.; Storm, H.; Stovall, M.; Boice, J.D.,Jr.; Gilbert, E.; Gail, M.H.

2005-01-01

or = 40 Gy) and use of alkylating agents (yes or no) were estimated from a case-control study conducted within an international population-based cohort of 3817 female 1-year survivors of HL diagnosed at age 30 years or younger from January 1, 1965, through December 31, 1994. To compute cumulative

Cumulative risk effect of household dysfunction for child maltreatment after intensive intervention of the child protection system in Japan: a longitudinal analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohashi, Hirotsuna; Wada, Ichiro; Yamaoka, Yui; Nakajima-Yamaguchi, Ryoko; Ogai, Yasukazu; Morita, Nobuaki

2018-04-20

Building an effective casework system for child maltreatment is a global issue. We estimated the effect of household dysfunction (i.e., interparental violence, caregiver mental health problems, and caregiver substance abuse) on child maltreatment to understand how to advance the current framework of child welfare. The sample comprised 759 children (1- to 17-year-old; mean age was 10.6; 404 boys and 355 girls) placed in temporary custody units (one of the strongest intervention of the Japanese child protection system). Caseworkers from 180 units across 43 prefectures completed questionnaires on children and their family and were asked whether a child maltreatment report had been made after cancelation of custody in a 15-month follow-up period. The relations of household dysfunction and maltreatment reports were assessed using the Cox proportional hazard model. About half (48.4%) of the children had been placed in the unit because of maltreatment, and 88.3% had a history of victimization. Seventy-six cases had maltreatment reports after cancelation. We entered household dysfunction variables individually into the model, and each had a significant relationship with maltreatment reports (hazard ratios for interparental violence, caregiver mental health problem, and substance abuse were 1.69, 1.69, and 2.19, respectively) after covariate adjustment. When treating these three variables as cumulative risk score model of household dysfunction, the hazard ratio increased with increasing number of score (1.96 for score two; 2.35 for score three; score 0 as reference). Greater household dysfunction score is a risk of maltreatment after intensive intervention. It is imperative to construct systems facilitating cooperation between child and adult service sectors and to deliver seamless services to children and families. Our findings provide child protect services with risk-stratified interventions for children at victimization risk and promote adult-focused services to be

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Associations of adversity in childhood and risk factors for cardiovascular disease in mid-adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Emma L; Fraser, Abigail; Caleyachetty, Rishi; Hardy, Rebecca; Lawlor, Debbie A; Howe, Laura D

2018-02-01

Studies assessing associations of childhood psychosocial adversity (e.g. sexual abuse, physical neglect, parental death), as opposed to socioeconomic adversity, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in adulthood are scarce. The aim of this study is to assess associations of various types of psychosocial adversity and cumulative adversity in childhood, with multiple CVD risk factors in mid-life. At study enrolment, women from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (N=3612) retrospectively reported: lack of maternal care, maternal overprotection, parental mental illness, household dysfunction, sexual abuse, physical and emotional abuse, and neglect in childhood. Approximately 23 years later, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, plasma glucose, insulin, triglycerides, low and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, C-reactive protein, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and arterial distensibility were assessed (mean age 51 years). We examined associations of each specific type of psychosocial adversity and cumulative adversity with CVD risk factors. No specific type of psychosocial adversity was consistently associated with the CVD risk factors. There was evidence that a one standard deviation greater cumulative psychosocial adversity was associated with 0.51cm greater waist circumference (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02cm, 1.00cm, p=0.04) and a lower arterial distensibility, even after adjustment for age, ethnicity and childhood and adult socioeconomic position. We found no consistent evidence that any specific type of psychosocial adversity, or cumulative psychosocial adversity in childhood, is associated with CVD risk factors in adult women. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

Kindling fires: examining the potential for cumulative learning in a Journalism curriculum

KAUST Repository

Kilpert, Leigh

2013-01-01

This study investigated context-dependency of learning as an indicator for students\\' potential to continue learning after graduation. We used Maton\\'s theoretical concepts of \\'cumulative\\' and \\'segmented\\' learning, and \\'semantic gravity\\', to look for context-independent learning in students\\' assessments in a Journalism curriculum. We postulated whether the curriculum constrained or enabled cumulative learning. Students\\' responses to assessments were coded by their degree of context-dependency, or semantic gravity. We found that, firstly, students are overly successful in producing context-dependent answers but struggle to deliver context-independent responses. Secondly, students were not effective when they used higher level knowledge principles without the foundation of lower level ones. Lastly, the marking criteria were encouraging markers to reward context-dependent answers over context-independent ones. This study has implications for educators interested in curriculum design that enables cumulative learning in discipline specific contexts. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

An inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score system in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma in rituximab era.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Feifei; Zhu, Jia; Lu, Suying; Zhen, Zijun; Wang, Juan; Huang, Junting; Ding, Zonghui; Zeng, Musheng; Sun, Xiaofei

2018-01-02

Systemic inflammatory parameters are associated with poor outcomes in malignant patients. Several inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score systems were established for various solid tumors. However, there is few inflammation based cumulative prognostic score system for patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We retrospectively reviewed 564 adult DLBCL patients who had received rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisolone (R-CHOP) therapy between Nov 1 2006 and Dec 30 2013 and assessed the prognostic significance of six systemic inflammatory parameters evaluated in previous studies by univariate and multivariate analysis:C-reactive protein(CRP), albumin levels, the lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio(PLR)and fibrinogen levels. Multivariate analysis identified CRP, albumin levels and the LMR are three independent prognostic parameters for overall survival (OS). Based on these three factors, we constructed a novel inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score (ICPS) system. Four risk groups were formed: group ICPS = 0, ICPS = 1, ICPS = 2 and ICPS = 3. Advanced multivariate analysis indicated that the ICPS model is a prognostic score system independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) for both progression-free survival (PFS) (p systemic inflammatory status was associated with clinical outcomes of patients with DLBCL in rituximab era. The ICPS model was shown to classify risk groups more accurately than any single inflammatory prognostic parameters. These findings may be useful for identifying candidates for further inflammation-related mechanism research or novel anti-inflammation target therapies.

Coalbed methane and salmon : assessing the risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendling, G.; Vadgama, J.; Holmes, R.

2008-05-01

The harmful environmental impacts from coalbed methane (CBM) development on land, water and wildlife have all been well documented based on experience in the United States and elsewhere. However, proposals to develop CBM resources in the headwaters region of northwest British Columbia raise a new issue regarding the impacts of CBM extraction on salmon. In order to begin addressing this knowledge gap and provide essential information for communities, this report presented an assessment of the risks of CBM development on salmon, with a specific focus on a tenure held by Shell Canada Limited in the Klappan region of Northwest British Columbia. The report provided a general overview of the CBM extraction process and of the environmental impacts typically associated with commercial-scale production. The Klappan Tenure location and geology were described along with the significance of its CBM reserves. The report also addressed the question of salmon presence within the tenure, drawing on existing field research to identify streams where coho, chinook and sockeye salmon have been observed. The report also contained assessments of potential risks associated with the two primary impact pathways, notably runoff and erosion effects arising from land disturbance, and stream flow and temperature effects arising from groundwater extraction. The report provided a brief overview of additional CBM-related impacts which could have indirect effects on salmon. Last, the report considered factors external to the Klappan project which could influence the nature and severity of impacts on salmon, including climate change; inadequate regulations; and cumulative impacts. It was concluded that CBM development should not occur without social license. Communities need to be empowered to decide whether or not they support CBM extraction in their area before development proceeds. 73 refs., 3 tabs., 26 figs

In vivo measurements of lead-210 for assessing cumulative radon exposure in uranium miners

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guilmette, R.A.; Laurer, G.R. [New York Univ. Inst. of Environmental Medicine, Tuxedo, NY (United States); Lambert, W.E.; Gilliland, F.D. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [and others

1995-12-01

It has long been recognized that a major contributor to the uncertainty in risk analysis of lung cancer in uranium and other hard rock miners is the estimation of total radon progeny exposure of individual miners under study. These uncertainties arise from the fact that only a limited number of measurements of airborne {sup 222}Rn progeny concentrations were made in the mines during the times that the miners were being exposed, and that dosimeters capable of integrating the Rn progeny exposures of the miners did not exist. Historically, the cumulative exposures for individual uranium and other hard rock miners have been calculated by combining the employee`s work history, which may or may not have included time spent at different jobs within the mines and at different locations within the mines, with whatever periodic measurements of Rn and Rn progeny were available. The amount and quality of the measurement data varied enormously from mine to mine and from population to population. Because the quality of the exposure data collected during the period of active mining in the United STates cannot now be altered substantially, significant improvement in individual miner exposure estimates is only likely to be achieved if a new cumulative exposure metric is developed and implemented. The decay chain of Rn includes the production of {sup 210}Pb, which can accumulate in the skeleton in amounts proportional to the intake of Rn progeny. We hypothesize that the in vivo measurement of {sup 210}Pb in the skulls of miners will provide such a metric. In summary, the primary purpose of this pilot study to demonstrate the feasibility of measuring {sup 210}Pb in the heads of former uranium miners has been accomplished.

Uncertainty studies and risk assessment for CO2 storage in geological formations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walter, Lena Sophie

2013-01-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations is one possible option to mitigate the greenhouse gas effect by reducing CO 2 emissions into the atmosphere. The assessment of the risks related to CO 2 storage is an important task. Events such as CO 2 leakage and brine displacement could result in hazards for human health and the environment. In this thesis, a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment concept is presented to investigate various levels of uncertainties and to assess risks using numerical simulations. Depending on the risk and the processes, which should be assessed, very complex models, large model domains, large time scales, and many simulations runs for estimating probabilities are required. To reduce the resulting high computational costs, a model reduction technique (the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion) and a method for model coupling in space are applied. The different levels of uncertainties are: statistical uncertainty in parameter distributions, scenario uncertainty, e.g. different geological features, and recognized ignorance due to assumptions in the conceptual model set-up. Recognized ignorance and scenario uncertainty are investigated by simulating well defined model set-ups and scenarios. According to damage values, which are defined as a model output, the set-ups and scenarios can be compared and ranked. For statistical uncertainty probabilities can be determined by running Monte Carlo simulations with the reduced model. The results are presented in various ways: e.g., mean damage, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, or an overall risk value by multiplying the damage with the probability. If the model output (damage) cannot be compared to provided criteria (e.g. water quality criteria), analytical approximations are presented to translate the damage into comparable values. The overall concept is applied for the risks related to brine displacement and infiltration into drinking water

Human exposure to chemical mixtures: Challenges for the integration of toxicology with epidemiology data in risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández, Antonio F; Tsatsakis, Aristidis M

2017-05-01

Little is known about the potential adverse effects from longterm exposure to complex mixtures at low doses, close to health-based reference values. Traditional chemical-specific risk assessment based on animal testing may be insufficient and the lack of toxicological studies on chemical mixtures remains a major regulatory challenge. Hence, new methodologies on cumulative risk assessment are being developed but still present major limitations. Evaluation of chemical mixture effects requires an integrated and systematic approach and close collaboration across different scientific fields, particularly toxicology, epidemiology, exposure science, risk assessment and statistics for a proper integration of data from all these disciplines. Well designed and conducted epidemiological studies can take advantage of this new paradigm and can provide insight to support the correlation between humans low-dose exposures and diseases, thus avoiding the uncertainty associated with extrapolation across species. In this regard, human epidemiology studies may play a significant role in the new vision of toxicity testing. However, this type of information has not been fully considered in risk assessment, mainly due to the inherent limitations of epidemiologic studies. An integrated approach of in vivo, in vitro and in silico data, together with systematic reviews or meta-analysis of high quality epidemiological studies will improve the robustness of risk assessment of chemical mixtures and will provide a stronger basis for regulatory decisions. The ultimate goal is that experimental and mechanistic data can lend support and biological plausibility to the human epidemiological observations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frölicher, Thomas L; Paynter, David J

2015-01-01

The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions. (letter)

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

A risk standard based on societal cost with bounded consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worledge, D.H.

1982-01-01

A risk standard is proposed that relates the frequency of occurrence of single events to the consequences of the events. Maximum consequences and risk aversion are used to give the cumulative risk curve a shape similar to the results of a risk assessment and to bound the expectation of deaths. Societal costs in terms of deaths are used to fix the parameters of the model together with an approximate comparison with individual risks. The proposed standard is compared with some practical applications of risk assessment to nuclear reactor systems

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

The Association between Cumulative Psychosocial Risk and Cervical HPV Infection Among Female Adolescents in a Free Vaccination Program

Science.gov (United States)

Linares, Lourdes Oriana; Shankar, Viswanathan; Diaz, Angela; Nucci-Sack, Anne; Strickler, Howard D.; Peake, Ken; Weiss, Jocelyn; Burk, Robert D.; Schlecht, Nicolas F.

2016-01-01

Objective This study investigated the association of cervical Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection with cumulative psychosocial risk reflecting family disadvantage, psychological distress, and unhealthy life style. Methods The sample (N=745) was comprised of sexually-active female adolescent patients (12-19 years), primarily ethnic minorities, enrolled in a free HPV vaccination program. Subjects completed questionnaires and provided cervical swabs for HPV DNA testing. Unweighted and weighted Principal Component Analyses (PCA) for categorical data were used to derive multi-systemic psychosocial risk indices using nine indicators: low socioeconomic status, lack of adult involvement, not attending high-school/college, history of treatment for depression/anxiety, antisocial/delinquent behavior, number of recent sexual partners, use of alcohol, use of drugs, and dependency risk for alcohol/drugs. The association between cervical HPV (any-type, high risk-types, vaccine-types) assayed by polymerase chain reaction and self-reported number of psychosocial risk indicators was estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Results Subjects had a median of three psychosocial risk indicators. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed associations with unweighted and weighted number of psychosocial indicators for HPV any-type (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-1.2 ); with the strongest associations between weighted drug/alcohol use, drug/alcohol dependency risk, and antisocial/delinquent behavior and detection of HPV vaccine-types (aOR=1.5; 95%CI: 1.1-2.0) independent of number of recent sexual partners and vaccine dose (0-3). Conclusion Increased HPV infections including HPV vaccine-types were associated with greater number of psychosocial risk indicators even after controlling for demographics, sexual behavior, history of chlamydia, and vaccine dose. PMID:25985216

Latino children’s autonomic nervous system reactivity moderates the relations between cumulative socioeconomic adversity in the first five years and externalizing behavior problems at seven years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abbey Alkon

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Thirty-seven percent of Hispanic and Latino children under 5 years of age are living in poverty in the United States. Children growing up under conditions of cumulative adversity are at much greater risk for compromised psychosocial adjustment with long-lasting ramifications for mental and physical health. This study assessed whether the relations between adversity early in life and later externalizing behaviors was moderated by children’s autonomic nervous system (ANS reactivity for immigrant, poor, MexicanAmerican children. Methods: A cumulative socioeconomic adversity index of children’s exposure to poverty, father’s absence, household crowding, mothers speaking Spanish, and poor housing condition at 6 months and 1, 3.5, and 5 years of age was calculated. At 5 years, ANS profiles during resting and social- and emotion-evoking challenges were calculated as combined parasympathetic and sympathetic difference scores. At 7 years, parents assessed children’s externalizing behavior problems. Results: Multiple regression models (n=220 showed that the relations between cumulative socioeconomic adversity and externalizing behaviors were moderated by children’s ANS profiles of coactivation during a social, not emotion-evoking, challenge, controlling for relevant covariates. Conclusions: Children living in adverse conditions early in life with specific psychobiologic responses to social challenges may be at risk for developing externalizing behavior problems later in life.

Basic principles for the development of a concept for environmental exposure assessments of single substances released from multiple uses under REACH

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gross, Rita; Bunke, Dirk [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie e.V., Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Gartiser, Stefan [Hydrotox GmbH, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

2011-10-15

The ECHA Guidance Documents R.12 to R.18 include detailed provisions on how to conduct an exposure assessment as part of the Chemical Safety Report. The guidance documents, however, only restrictedly address the consideration of a substance's emissions into the environment, if the local releases from various uses of the same substance result in a cumulative exposure. In a situation where a chemical has a number of applications in one site, it may however occur that the emissions of several uses which only have a low risk if considered separately will sum up and cause an unacceptable risk to the environment. Against this background, the objective of the present study is a further specification of the guidelines on cumulative risk assessment according to the REACH Regulation. Besides the definition of the key terminology, guidelines on cumulative exposure assessment already laid down in other legal regulations have been evaluated and their transferability to the environmental exposure assessment according to REACH has been investigated. Moreover, the fields of application for which a cumulative exposure assessment might be relevant have been worked out. A distinction was made between cases where the responsibility for cumulative exposure assessment falls into the hands of the registrant as part of the Chemical Safety Report and other cases, where the responsibility lies with the downstream users (DU) or the Member State Competent Authorities (MS-CA). Initial proposals have been elaborated for a technical implementation of the cumulative exposure assessment of chemicals as part of the preparation and evaluation of chemical dossiers by the registrant and the MS-CA, respectively, and as part of the responsibility of the DU. (orig.)

A regional approach to the environmental risk assessment in the Campania region

Science.gov (United States)

Minolfi, Giulia; Albanese, Stefano; Lima, Annamaria; De Vivo, Benedetto

2016-04-01

Environmental risk assessment and analysis has a crucial role for guaranteeing the safety of the population, especially in intensive urbanized and industrialized areas, such as the Campania region (Italy). In Italy, since 2006, the human health risk assessment has become mandatory for contaminated soil and waters at contaminated sites. While traditional risk assessment procedures are usually run at site specific level (brownfields), with this work we would like to introduce a freshly developed method to assess risks at regional level by means of GIS, considering the hazard due to the presence in the environment of a contaminated media, the land use variability and the actual distribution of the population. 3535 top soils were collected across the whole Campania region (Italy) with a sampling density of 1 sample/4 km2. Samples were analyzed at ACME Analytical Lab. Ltd (Vancouver, Canada), to determine the concentration of 52 elements, with a combined methods of ICP-MS and ICP-ES following an aqua regia digestion. After a detailed statistical data analysis and geochemical mapping, we reclassified the interpolated maps of some potentially toxic elements (Sb, As, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb, Se, Sn, Tl, V, Zn), in accordance with the Italian environmental law (D.Lgs 152/2006), on the base of the trigger and action limits (CSC) for human safety established by this latter. The obtained maps were summed up in the GIS environment in order to get a cumulative map of the potential hazard for the topsoils of Campania region. Considering that environmental risk for the population is strongly influenced by the exposure pathways followed by contaminants to reach the human target, in the case of Campania region we evaluated as relevant pathways both the soil/dust and food ingestion. Furthermore to consider the influence of the land use in the onset of the risk, each land use type was associated with a specific value of a Land Use Risk Coefficient (LURC) which is also dependent on

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Cumulative increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus with increasing triglyceride glucose index in normal-weight people: The Rural Chinese Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ming; Wang, Bingyuan; Liu, Yu; Sun, Xizhuo; Luo, Xinping; Wang, Chongjian; Li, Linlin; Zhang, Lu; Ren, Yongcheng; Zhao, Yang; Zhou, Junmei; Han, Chengyi; Zhao, Jingzhi; Hu, Dongsheng

2017-03-01

Risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increased in metabolically obese but normal-weight people. However, we have limited knowledge of how to prevent T2DM in normal-weight people. We aimed to evaluate the association between triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and incident T2DM among normal-weight people in rural China. We included data from 5706 people with normal body mass index (BMI) (18.5-23.9 kg/m 2 ) without baseline T2DM in a rural Chinese cohort followed for a median of 6.0 years. A Cox proportional-hazard model was used to assess the risk of incident T2DM by quartiles of TyG index and difference in TyG index between follow-up and baseline (TyG-D), estimating hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A generalized additive plot was used to show the nonparametric smoothed exposure-response association between risk of T2DM and TyG index as a continuous variable. TyG was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride level (mg/dl) × fasting plasma glucose level (mg/dl)/2]. Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartiles 2, 3 and 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG index (adjusted HR [aHR] 2.48 [95% CI 1.20-5.11], 3.77 [1.83-7.79], and 5.30 [2.21-12.71], P trend  index). Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartile 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG-D (aHR 3.91 [2.22-6.87]). The results were consistent when analyses were restricted to participants without baseline metabolic syndrome and impaired fasting glucose level. The generalized additive plot showed cumulative increased risk of T2DM with increasing TyG index. Risk of incident T2DM is increased with increasing TyG index among rural Chinese people, so the index might be an important indicator for identifying people at high risk of T2DM.

Psychobiology of cumulative trauma: hair cortisol as a risk marker for stress exposure in women.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Matthew C; Abelson, James L; Mielock, Alyssa S; Rao, Uma

2017-07-01

Childhood trauma (CT) is associated with long-lasting alterations of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and elevated risk for stress exposure in adulthood. Although HPA alterations are present in the early aftermath of trauma, it remains unclear how initial HPA activity is associated with subsequent stress exposure and whether CT exposure influences the strength and direction of this association. The present study examined prospective associations between hair cortisol content (HCC) and stress exposure from baseline to 3-month follow-up in young adult women with recent (i.e. past 3 months) exposure to interpersonal violence (IPV; i.e. physical or sexual assault) and non-traumatized controls. History of significant CT abuse or neglect was determined based on clinical cutoffs for a self-report CT measure: 12 women had abuse or neglect and recent IPV exposure (CT + IPV); 7 women had abuse or neglect but no IPV exposure (CT); 15 women had no history of trauma (NTC). HCC was computed for 3 cm sections reflecting cortisol secretion during the 3 months preceding the baseline assessment. The interaction of cumulative trauma and HCC predicted stress exposure over 3-month follow-up, controlling for baseline stress exposure and depressive symptoms. Simple slopes analyses revealed that lower baseline HCC predicted greater stress exposure in the CT + IPV group compared to the CT group; HCC was not associated with stress exposure in the NTC group. The present findings highlight the potential utility of HCC as a predictor of stress exposure for women with a history of childhood abuse or neglect, particularly in the context of recent IPV. Lay summary Adults with a history of CT show long-lasting alterations in major stress response systems, including the HPA axis. They are also more likely to experience stressful life events in adulthood. However, it is not clear how altered HPA activity influences risk for stress exposure and whether CT affects their

Cumulative effects in Swedish EIA practice - difficulties and obstacles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waernbaeck, Antoienette; Hilding-Rydevik, Tuija

2009-01-01

The importance of considering cumulative effects (CE) in the context of environmental assessment is manifested in the EU regulations. The demands on the contents of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) documents explicitly ask for CE to be described. In Swedish environmental assessment documents CE are rarely described or included. The aim of this paper is to look into the reasons behind this fact in the Swedish context. The paper describes and analyse how actors implementing the EIA and SEA legislation in Sweden perceive the current situation in relation to the legislative demands and the inclusion of cumulative effects. Through semi-structured interviews the following questions have been explored: Is the phenomenon of CE discussed and included in the EIA/SEA process? What do the actors include in and what is their knowledge of the term and concept of CE? Which difficulties and obstacles do these actors experience and what possibilities for inclusion of CE do they see in the EIA/SEA process? A large number of obstacles and hindrances emerged from the interviews conducted. It can be concluded from the analysis that the will to act does seem to exist. A lack of knowledge in respect of how to include cumulative effects and a lack of clear regulations concerning how this should be done seem to be perceived as the main obstacles. The knowledge of the term and the phenomenon is furthermore quite narrow and not all encompassing. They experience that there is a lack of procedures in place. They also seem to lack knowledge of methods in relation to how to actually work, in practice, with CE and how to include CE in the EIA/SEA process. It can be stated that the existence of this poor picture in relation to practice concerning CE in the context of impact assessment mirrors the existing and so far rather vague demands in respect of the inclusion and assessment of CE in Swedish EIA and SEA legislation, regulations, guidelines and

Association between B vitamins supplementation and risk of cardiovascular outcomes: a cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chi Zhang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest that B vitamin supplementation reduces cardiovascular risk in adults, but this association remains controversial. This study aimed to summarize the evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs investigating B vitamin supplementation for the primary or secondary prevention of major adverse cardiovascular outcomes and to perform a cumulative meta-analysis to determine the evidence base. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In April 2013, we searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library to identify relevant RCTs. We included RCTs investigating the effect of B vitamin supplementation on cardiovascular outcome. Relative risk (RR was used to measure the effect using a random-effect model. Statistical heterogeneity scores were assessed using the Q statistic. We included data on 57,952 individuals from 24 RCTs: 12 primary prevention trials and 12 secondary prevention trials. In 23 of these trials, 10,917 major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE occurred; in 20 trials, 7,203 deaths occurred; in 15 trials, 3,422 cardiac deaths occurred; in 19 trials, 3,623 myocardial infarctions (MI occurred; and in 18 trials, 2,465 strokes occurred. B vitamin supplementation had little or no effect on the incidence of MACE (RR, 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-1.03; P = 0.37, total mortality (RR, 1.01; 95% CI: 0.97-1.05; P = 0.77, cardiac death (RR, 0.96; 95% CI: 0.90-1.02; P = 0.21, MI (RR, 0.99; 95% CI: 0.93-1.06; P = 0.82, or stroke (RR, 0.94; 95% CI: 0.85-1.03; P = 0.18. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: B vitamin supplementation, when used for primary or secondary prevention, is not associated with a reduction in MACE, total mortality, cardiac death, MI, or stroke.

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

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Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Quantitative methods for analysing cumulative effects on fish migration success: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, J E; Patterson, D A; Martins, E G; Cooke, S J; Hinch, S G

2012-07-01

It is often recognized, but seldom addressed, that a quantitative assessment of the cumulative effects, both additive and non-additive, of multiple stressors on fish survival would provide a more realistic representation of the factors that influence fish migration. This review presents a compilation of analytical methods applied to a well-studied fish migration, a more general review of quantitative multivariable methods, and a synthesis on how to apply new analytical techniques in fish migration studies. A compilation of adult migration papers from Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka revealed a limited number of multivariable methods being applied and the sub-optimal reliance on univariable methods for multivariable problems. The literature review of fisheries science, general biology and medicine identified a large number of alternative methods for dealing with cumulative effects, with a limited number of techniques being used in fish migration studies. An evaluation of the different methods revealed that certain classes of multivariable analyses will probably prove useful in future assessments of cumulative effects on fish migration. This overview and evaluation of quantitative methods gathered from the disparate fields should serve as a primer for anyone seeking to quantify cumulative effects on fish migration survival. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

High cumulative insulin exposure : a risk factor of atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Muis, MJ; Bots, ML; Bilo, HJG; Hoogma, RPLM; Hoekstra, JBL; Grobbee, DE; Stolk, RP

Background: Since insulin therapy might have an atherogenic effect, we studied the relationship between cumulative insulin dose and atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes. We have focused on patients with type 1 diabetes instead of type 2 diabetes to minimise the effect of insulin resistance as a

High cumulative insulin exposure: a risk factor of atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Muis, Marian J.; Bots, Michiel L.; Bilo, Henk J. G.; Hoogma, Roel P. L. M.; Hoekstra, Joost B. L.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Stolk, Ronald P.

2005-01-01

Background: Since insulin therapy might have an atherogenic effect, we studied the relationship between cumulative insulin dose and atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes. We have focused on patients with type 1 diabetes instead of type 2 diabetes to minimise the effect of insulin resistance as a

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

Identifying important life stages for monitoring and assessing risks from exposures to environmental contaminants: results of a World Health Organization review.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen Hubal, Elaine A; de Wet, Thea; Du Toit, Lilo; Firestone, Michael P; Ruchirawat, Mathuros; van Engelen, Jacqueline; Vickers, Carolyn

2014-06-01

In this paper, we summarize exposure-related issues to consider in determining the most appropriate age ranges and life stages for risk assessment. We then propose a harmonized set of age bins for monitoring and assessing risks from exposures to chemicals for global use. The focus is on preconception through adolescence, though the approach should be applicable to additional life stages. A two-tiered set of early life age groups is recommended. The first tier involves the adoption of guidance similar to the childhood age groups recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, whereas the second tier consolidates some of those age groups to reduce the burden of developing age-specific exposure factors for different regions. While there is no single "correct" means of choosing a common set of age groups to use internationally in assessing early life exposure and risk, use of a set of defined age groups is recommended to facilitate comparisons of potential exposures and risks around the globe, the collection of data and analyses of aggregate exposure and cumulative risk. Application of these age groups for robust assessment of exposure and risk for specific populations will require region-specific exposure factors as well as local environmental monitoring data. Copyright © 2013 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

Cumulative Risk and Continuity in Nonparental Care from Infancy to Early Adolescence

OpenAIRE

Colwell, Malinda J.; Pettit, Gregory S.; Meece, Darrell; Bates, John E.; Dodge, Kenneth A.

2001-01-01

Variations in amounts of nonparental care across infancy, preschool, early elementary school, and early adolescence were examined in a longitudinal sample (N = 438). Of interest was (a) continuity in use of the different arrangements, (b) whether the arrangements were additively and cumulatively associated with children’s externalizing behavior problems, and (c) whether predictive relations were accounted for by social-ecological (socioeconomic status, mothers’ employment status, marital stat...

Uncertainty studies and risk assessment for CO{sub 2} storage in geological formations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walter, Lena Sophie

2013-07-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations is one possible option to mitigate the greenhouse gas effect by reducing CO{sub 2} emissions into the atmosphere. The assessment of the risks related to CO{sub 2} storage is an important task. Events such as CO{sub 2} leakage and brine displacement could result in hazards for human health and the environment. In this thesis, a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment concept is presented to investigate various levels of uncertainties and to assess risks using numerical simulations. Depending on the risk and the processes, which should be assessed, very complex models, large model domains, large time scales, and many simulations runs for estimating probabilities are required. To reduce the resulting high computational costs, a model reduction technique (the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion) and a method for model coupling in space are applied. The different levels of uncertainties are: statistical uncertainty in parameter distributions, scenario uncertainty, e.g. different geological features, and recognized ignorance due to assumptions in the conceptual model set-up. Recognized ignorance and scenario uncertainty are investigated by simulating well defined model set-ups and scenarios. According to damage values, which are defined as a model output, the set-ups and scenarios can be compared and ranked. For statistical uncertainty probabilities can be determined by running Monte Carlo simulations with the reduced model. The results are presented in various ways: e.g., mean damage, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, or an overall risk value by multiplying the damage with the probability. If the model output (damage) cannot be compared to provided criteria (e.g. water quality criteria), analytical approximations are presented to translate the damage into comparable values. The overall concept is applied for the risks related to brine displacement and infiltration into

Divergent Cumulative Cultural Evolution

OpenAIRE

Marriott, Chris; Chebib, Jobran

2016-01-01

Divergent cumulative cultural evolution occurs when the cultural evolutionary trajectory diverges from the biological evolutionary trajectory. We consider the conditions under which divergent cumulative cultural evolution can occur. We hypothesize that two conditions are necessary. First that genetic and cultural information are stored separately in the agent. Second cultural information must be transferred horizontally between agents of different generations. We implement a model with these ...

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Should the scope of human mixture risk assessment span legislative/regulatory silos for chemicals?

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Richard M; Martin, Olwenn V; Faust, Michael; Kortenkamp, Andreas

2016-02-01

Current chemicals regulation operates almost exclusively on a chemical-by-chemical basis, however there is concern that this approach may not be sufficiently protective if two or more chemicals have the same toxic effect. Humans are indisputably exposed to more than one chemical at a time, for example to the multiple chemicals found in food, air and drinking water, and in household and consumer products, and in cosmetics. Assessment of cumulative risk to human health and/or the environment from multiple chemicals and routes can be done in a mixture risk assessment (MRA). Whilst there is a broad consensus on the basic science of mixture toxicology, the path to regulatory implementation of MRA within chemical risk assessment is less clear. In this discussion piece we pose an open question: should the scope of human MRA cross legislative remits or 'silos'? We define silos as, for instance, legislation that defines risk assessment practice for a subset of chemicals, usually on the basis of substance/product, media or process orientation. Currently any form of legal mandate for human MRA in the EU is limited to only a few pieces of legislation. We describe two lines of evidence, illustrated with selected examples, that are particularly pertinent to this question: 1) evidence that mixture effects have been shown for chemicals regulated in different silos and 2) evidence that humans are co-exposed to chemicals from different silos. We substantiate the position that, because there is no reason why chemicals allocated to specific regulatory silos would have non-overlapping risk profiles, then there is also no reason to expect that MRA limited only to chemicals within one silo can fully capture the risk that may be present to human consumers. Finally, we discuss possible options for implementation of MRA and we hope to prompt wider discussion of this issue. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Risk-based probabilistic approach to assess the impact of false mussel invasions on farmed hard clams.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Chung-Min; Ju, Yun-Ru; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu

2010-02-01

The purpose of this article is to provide a risk-based predictive model to assess the impact of false mussel Mytilopsis sallei invasions on hard clam Meretrix lusoria farms in the southwestern region of Taiwan. The actual spread of invasive false mussel was predicted by using analytical models based on advection-diffusion and gravity models. The proportion of hard clam colonized and infestation by false mussel were used to characterize risk estimates. A mortality model was parameterized to assess hard clam mortality risk characterized by false mussel density and infestation intensity. The published data were reanalyzed to parameterize a predictive threshold model described by a cumulative Weibull distribution function that can be used to estimate the exceeding thresholds of proportion of hard clam colonized and infestation. Results indicated that the infestation thresholds were 2-17 ind clam(-1) for adult hard clams, whereas 4 ind clam(-1) for nursery hard clams. The average colonization thresholds were estimated to be 81-89% for cultivated and nursery hard clam farms, respectively. Our results indicated that false mussel density and infestation, which caused 50% hard clam mortality, were estimated to be 2,812 ind m(-2) and 31 ind clam(-1), respectively. This study further indicated that hard clam farms that are close to the coastal area have at least 50% probability for 43% mortality caused by infestation. This study highlighted that a probabilistic risk-based framework characterized by probability distributions and risk curves is an effective representation of scientific assessments for farmed hard clam in response to the nonnative false mussel invasion.

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

NON-EXPECTED UTILITY THEORIES: WEIGHTED EXPECTED, RANK DEPENDENT, AND CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY UTILITY

OpenAIRE

Tuthill, Jonathan W.; Frechette, Darren L.

2002-01-01

This paper discusses some of the failings of expected utility including the Allais paradox and expected utility's inadequate one dimensional characterization of risk. Three alternatives to expected utility are discussed at length; weighted expected utility, rank dependent utility, and cumulative prospect theory. Each alternative is capable of explaining Allais paradox type problems and permits more sophisticated multi dimensional risk preferences.

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

An Integrated Cumulative Transformation and Feature Fusion Approach for Bearing Degradation Prognostics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lixiang Duan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Aimed at degradation prognostics of a rolling bearing, this paper proposed a novel cumulative transformation algorithm for data processing and a feature fusion technique for bearing degradation assessment. First, a cumulative transformation is presented to map the original features extracted from a vibration signal to their respective cumulative forms. The technique not only makes the extracted features show a monotonic trend but also reduces the fluctuation; such properties are more propitious to reflect the bearing degradation trend. Then, a new degradation index system is constructed, which fuses multidimensional cumulative features by kernel principal component analysis (KPCA. Finally, an extreme learning machine model based on phase space reconstruction is proposed to predict the degradation trend. The model performance is experimentally validated with a whole-life experiment of a rolling bearing. The results prove that the proposed method reflects the bearing degradation process clearly and achieves a good balance between model accuracy and complexity.

Characterizing Risks of Exposures to Combined Stressors: An Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) addresses the impacts of multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors on communities, resulting from complex exposures for populations with a variety of vulnerabilities. These efforts focus on real world exposure scenarios and applications that ra...

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Olazarán

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD, with control of vascular factors (VFs. Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (nD, past depression (pD, present depression (prD, and present and past depression (prpD. Logistic regression was used. Results. Data of 1,807 subjects were investigated at baseline (mean age 74.3, 59.3% women, and 1,376 (81.6% subjects were evaluated after three years. The prevalence of dementia at baseline was 6.7%, and dementia incidence was 6.3%. An effect of depression was observed on dementia prevalence (OR [CI 95%] 1.84 [1.01–3.35] for prD and 2.73 [1.08–6.87] for prpD, and on dementia due to AD (OR 1.98 [0.98–3.99] for prD and OR 3.98 [1.48–10.71] for prpD (fully adjusted models, nD as reference. Depression did not influence dementia incidence. Conclusions. Present depression and, particularly, present and past depression are associated with dementia at old age. Multiple mechanisms, including toxic effect of depression on hippocampal neurons, plausibly explain these associations.

Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and Holm oak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrés, Juan Manuel de; Borge, Rafael; Paz, David de la; Lumbreras, Julio; Rodríguez, Encarnación

2012-01-01

A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and POD Y (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m −2 s −1 ). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods. - Highlights: ► A modelling system to estimate the risk of ozone in the Iberian Peninsula is presented. ► Ozone exposure- and flux-based approaches lead to rather different conclusions. ► Available ozone critical levels were exceeded in most locations where wheat is present. ► Soil moisture content has a significant impact on the flux-based results in some areas. - Flux-based indexes are needed to provide an effective protection of the vegetation in the Iberian Peninsula; currently, available critical levels for wheat are widely exceeded.

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...