Assessing storm erosion hazards

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Callaghan, D.; Ciavola, Paolo; Coco, Giovanni

2017-01-01

The storm erosion hazard on coasts is usually expressed as an erosion volume and/or associated episodic coastline retreat. The accurate assessment of present-day and future storm erosion volumes is a key task for coastal zone managers, planners and engineers. There are four main approaches that can

Hurricane Harvey Building Damage Assessment Using UAV Data

Science.gov (United States)

Yeom, J.; Jung, J.; Chang, A.; Choi, I.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey which was extremely destructive major hurricane struck southern Texas, U.S.A on August 25, causing catastrophic flooding and storm damages. We visited Rockport suffered severe building destruction and conducted UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) surveying for building damage assessment. UAV provides very high resolution images compared with traditional remote sensing data. In addition, prompt and cost-effective damage assessment can be performed regardless of several limitations in other remote sensing platforms such as revisit interval of satellite platforms, complicated flight plan in aerial surveying, and cloud amounts. In this study, UAV flight and GPS surveying were conducted two weeks after hurricane damage to generate an orthomosaic image and a DEM (Digital Elevation Model). 3D region growing scheme has been proposed to quantitatively estimate building damages considering building debris' elevation change and spectral difference. The result showed that the proposed method can be used for high definition building damage assessment in a time- and cost-effective way.

Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

2017-12-01

Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes

Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events

OpenAIRE

C. André; D. Monfort; M. Bouzit; C. Vinchon

2013-01-01

There are a number of methodological issues involved in assessing damage caused by natural hazards. The first is the lack of data, due to the rarity of events and the widely different circumstances in which they occur. Thus, historical data, albeit scarce, should not be neglected when seeking to build ex-ante risk management models. This article analyses the input of insurance data for two recent severe coastal storm events, to examine what causal relationships may exist bet...

Agricultural damages and losses from ARkStorm scenario flooding in California

Science.gov (United States)

Wein, Anne; David Mitchell,; Peters, Jeff; John Rowden,; Johnny Tran,; Alessandra Corsi,; Dinitz, Laura B.

2016-01-01

Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased likelihood under climate change. California is an important provider of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and other agricultural products to the nation. This study analyzes the agricultural damages and losses pertaining to annual crops, perennial crops, and livestock in California exposed to ARkStorm flooding. Statewide, flood damage is incurred on approximately 23% of annual crop acreage, 5% of perennial crop acreage, and 5% of livestock, e.g., dairy, feedlot, and poultry, acreage. The sum of field repair costs, forgone income, and product replacement costs span $3.7 and $7.1 billion (2009) for a range of inundation durations. Perennial crop loss estimates dominate, and the vulnerability of orchards and vineyards has likely increased with recent expansion. Crop reestablishment delays from levee repair and dewatering more than double annual crop losses in the delta islands, assuming the fragile system does not remain permanently flooded. The exposure of almost 200,000 dairy cows to ARkStorm flooding poses livestock evacuation challenges. Read More: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29NH.1527-6996.0000174

Assessing Hurricane Katrina Vegetation Damage at Stennis Space Center using IKONOS Image Classification Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Ross, Kenton W.; Graham, William D.

2007-01-01

Hurricane Katrina hit southwestern Mississippi on August 29, 2005, at 9:45 a.m. CDT as a category 3 storm with surges up to approx. 9 m and sustained winds of approx. 120 mph. The hurricane's wind, rain, and flooding devastated several coastal towns, from New Orleans through Mobile. The storm also caused significant damage to infrastructure and vegetation of NASA's SSC (Stennis Space Center). Storm recovery at SSC involved not only repairs of critical infrastructure but also forest damage mitigation (via timber harvests and control burns to reduce fire risk). This presentation discusses an effort to use commercially available high spatial resolution multispectral IKONOS data for vegetation damage assessment, based on data collected over SSC on September 2, 2005.

Simulating storm surge inundation and damage potential within complex port facilities

Science.gov (United States)

Mawdsley, Robert; French, Jon; Fujiyama, Taku; Achutan, Kamalasudhan

2017-04-01

Storm surge inundation of port facilities can cause damage to critical elements of infrastructure, significantly disrupt port operations and cause downstream impacts on vital supply chains. A tidal surge in December 2013 in the North Sea partly flooded the Port of Immingham, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. This flooding caused damage to port and rail transport infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This research aims to improve resilience to storm surges using hydrodynamic modelling coupled to an agent-based model of port operations. Using the December 2013 event to validate flood extent, depth and duration, we ran a high resolution hydrodynamic simulation using the open source Telemac 2D finite element code. The underlying Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was derived from Environment Agency LiDAR data, with ground truthing of the flood defences along the port frontage. Major infrastructure and buildings are explicitly resolved with varying degrees of permeability. Telemac2D simulations are run in parallel and take only minutes on a single 16 cpu compute node. Inundation characteristics predicted using Telemac 2D differ from a simple Geographical Information System 'bath-tub' analysis of the DEM based upon horizontal application of the maximum water level across the port topography. The hydrodynamic simulation predicts less extensive flooding and more closely matches observed flood extent. It also provides more precise depth and duration curves. Detailed spatial flood depth and duration maps were generated for a range of tide and surge scenarios coupled to mean sea-level rise projections. These inundation scenarios can then be integrated with critical asset databases and an agent-based model of port operation (MARS) that is capable of simulating storm surge disruption along wider supply chains. Port operators are able to act on information from a particular

Hurricane Harvey: Infrastructure Damage Assessment of Texas' Central Gulf Coast Region

Science.gov (United States)

Mooney, W. D.; Fovenyessy, S.; Patterson, S. F.

2017-12-01

We report a detailed ground-based damage survey for Hurricane Harvey, the first major hurricane to make landfall along the central Texas coast since the 1970 Category 3 Hurricane Celia. Harvey, a Category 4 storm, made landfall near Rockport, Texas on August 25th, 2017 at 10 PM local time. From September 2nd to 5th we visited Rockport and 22 nearby cities to assess the severity of the damage. Nearly all damage observed occurred as a direct result of the hurricane-force winds, rather than a storm surge. This observation is in contrast to the severe damage caused by both high winds and a significant storm surge, locally 3 to 5 m in height, in the 2013 Category 5 Hurricane Haiyan, that devastated the Philippines. We have adopted a damage scale and have given an average damage score for each of the areas investigated. Our damage contour map illustrates the areal variation in damage. The damage observed was widespread with a high degree of variability. Different types of damage included: (1) fallen fences and utility poles; (2) trees with branches broken or completely snapped in half; (3) business signs that were either partially or fully destroyed; (4) partially sunken or otherwise damaged boats; (5) and sheet metal sheds either completely or partially destroyed. There was also varying degrees of damage to both residential and commercial structures. Many homes had (6) roof damage, ranging from minor damage to complete destruction of the roof and second story, and (7) siding damage, where parts or whole sections of the homes siding had been removed. The area that had the lowest average damage score was Corpus Christi, and the areas that had the highest average damage score was both Fulton and Holiday Beach. There is no simple, uniform pattern of damage distribution. Rather, the damage was scattered, revealing hot spots of areas that received more damage than the surrounding area. However, when compared to the NOAA wind swath map, all of the damage was contained within

Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008 and Xynthia (2010 storm events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. André

2013-08-01

Full Text Available There are a number of methodological issues involved in assessing damage caused by natural hazards. The first is the lack of data, due to the rarity of events and the widely different circumstances in which they occur. Thus, historical data, albeit scarce, should not be neglected when seeking to build ex-ante risk management models. This article analyses the input of insurance data for two recent severe coastal storm events, to examine what causal relationships may exist between hazard characteristics and the level of damage incurred by residential buildings. To do so, data was collected at two levels: from lists of about 4000 damage records, 358 loss adjustment reports were consulted, constituting a detailed damage database. The results show that for flooded residential buildings, over 75% of reconstruction costs are associated with interior elements, with damage to structural components remaining very localised and negligible. Further analysis revealed a high scatter between costs and water depth, suggesting that uncertainty remains high in drawing up damage functions with insurance data alone. Due to the paper format of the loss adjustment reports, and the lack of harmonisation between their contents, the collection stage called for a considerable amount of work. For future events, establishing a standardised process for archiving damage information could significantly contribute to the production of such empirical damage functions. Nevertheless, complementary sources of data on hazards and asset vulnerability parameters will definitely still be necessary for damage modelling; multivariate approaches, crossing insurance data with external material, should also be investigated more deeply.

Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events

Science.gov (United States)

André, C.; Monfort, D.; Bouzit, M.; Vinchon, C.

2013-08-01

There are a number of methodological issues involved in assessing damage caused by natural hazards. The first is the lack of data, due to the rarity of events and the widely different circumstances in which they occur. Thus, historical data, albeit scarce, should not be neglected when seeking to build ex-ante risk management models. This article analyses the input of insurance data for two recent severe coastal storm events, to examine what causal relationships may exist between hazard characteristics and the level of damage incurred by residential buildings. To do so, data was collected at two levels: from lists of about 4000 damage records, 358 loss adjustment reports were consulted, constituting a detailed damage database. The results show that for flooded residential buildings, over 75% of reconstruction costs are associated with interior elements, with damage to structural components remaining very localised and negligible. Further analysis revealed a high scatter between costs and water depth, suggesting that uncertainty remains high in drawing up damage functions with insurance data alone. Due to the paper format of the loss adjustment reports, and the lack of harmonisation between their contents, the collection stage called for a considerable amount of work. For future events, establishing a standardised process for archiving damage information could significantly contribute to the production of such empirical damage functions. Nevertheless, complementary sources of data on hazards and asset vulnerability parameters will definitely still be necessary for damage modelling; multivariate approaches, crossing insurance data with external material, should also be investigated more deeply.

Early density management of longleaf pine reduces susceptibility to ice storm damage

Science.gov (United States)

Timothy B. Harrington; Thaddeus A. Harrington

2016-01-01

The Pax winter storm of February 2014 caused widespread damage to forest stands throughout the southeastern U.S. In a long-term study of savanna plant community restoration at the Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC, precommercial thinning (PCT) of 8- to 11-year-old plantations of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) in 1994 reduced...

Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

2018-06-01

Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

Damage assessment methodology for vehicles exposed to flooding in urban areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Martínez Gomariz

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Urban floods may provoke important damages to vehicles, usually not taken into account within most studies related to urban flood risks damage assessments. Herein a methodology to estimate damages to vehicles exposed to urban floods is presented. After a state-of-the-art review, the most recent damage curves for vehicles developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE, 2009 are presented as the best adaptive and the most comprehensively performed so far. The proposed methodology is applied to the Spanish municipality of Badalona, framed in the H2020 European Project BINGO. In order to conduct this methodology some aspects such as the vehicular distribution are analyzed within the study area. Finally, Expected Annual Damage (EAD for flooded vehicles is calculated based on inundations related to design storms of different return periods (1, 10, 100 and 500 years.

Storm Damage Reduction Project Design for Wallops Island, Virginia, Version 1.01

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-01

photograph. Figure 2-4 shows the erosion and storm damage to the Wallops Island Association Clubhouse at the north end of the island in May 1949. Figure 2...uncertainty in what future rates will be. By the Bruun rule (Bruun 1962), small changes in sea level can be expected to have dramatic effects on shoreline...known. What is clear is that the north end of Wallops Island is accreting. Therefore, more sand is being delivered to this area than is leaving. 9.2

Physically-based Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Damage and Economic Losses

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, N.

2012-12-01

Estimating damage and economic losses caused by tropical cyclones (TC) is a topic of considerable research interest in many scientific fields, including meteorology, structural and coastal engineering, and actuarial sciences. One approach is based on the empirical relationship between TC characteristics and loss data. Another is to model the physical mechanism of TC-induced damage. In this talk we discuss about the physically-based approach to predict TC damage and losses due to extreme wind and storm surge. We first present an integrated vulnerability model, which, for the first time, explicitly models the essential mechanisms causing wind damage to residential areas during storm passage, including windborne-debris impact and the pressure-debris interaction that may lead, in a chain reaction, to structural failures (Lin and Vanmarcke 2010; Lin et al. 2010a). This model can be used to predict the economic losses in a residential neighborhood (with hundreds of buildings) during a specific TC (Yau et al. 2011) or applied jointly with a TC risk model (e.g., Emanuel et al 2008) to estimate the expected losses over long time periods. Then we present a TC storm surge risk model that has been applied to New York City (Lin et al. 2010b; Lin et al. 2012; Aerts et al. 2012), Miami-Dade County, Florida (Klima et al. 2011), Galveston, Texas (Lickley, 2012), and other coastal areas around the world (e.g., Tampa, Florida; Persian Gulf; Darwin, Australia; Shanghai, China). These physically-based models are applicable to various coastal areas and have the capability to account for the change of the climate and coastal exposure over time. We also point out that, although made computationally efficient for risk assessment, these models are not suitable for regional or global analysis, which has been a focus of the empirically-based economic analysis (e.g., Hsiang and Narita 2012). A future research direction is to simplify the physically-based models, possibly through

NCDC Storm Events Database

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Data is provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) and contain statistics on personal injuries and damage estimates. Storm Data covers the United States of...

Dissemination of Earth Remote Sensing Data for Use in the NOAA/NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit

Science.gov (United States)

Molthan, Andrew; Burks, Jason; Camp, Parks; McGrath, Kevin; Bell, Jordan

2015-01-01

The National Weather Service has developed the Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT), an application for smartphones and tablets that allows for the collection, geolocation, and aggregation of various damage indicators that are collected during storm surveys. The DAT supports the often labor-intensive process where meteorologists venture into the storm-affected area, allowing them to acquire geotagged photos of the observed damage while also assigning estimated EF-scale categories based upon their observations. Once the data are collected, the DAT infrastructure aggregates the observations into a server that allows other meteorologists to perform quality control and other analysis steps before completing their survey and making the resulting data available to the public. In addition to in-person observations, Earth remote sensing from operational, polar-orbiting satellites can support the damage assessment process by identifying portions of damage tracks that may be missed due to road limitations, access to private property, or time constraints. Products resulting from change detection techniques can identify damage to vegetation and the land surface, aiding in the survey process. In addition, higher resolution commercial imagery can corroborate ground-based surveys by examining higher-resolution commercial imagery. As part of an ongoing collaboration, NASA and NOAA are working to integrate near real-time Earth remote sensing observations into the NOAA/NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit. This presentation will highlight recent developments in a streamlined approach for disseminating Earth remote sensing data via web mapping services and a new menu interface that has been integrated within the DAT. A review of current and future products will be provided, including products derived from MODIS and VIIRS for preliminary track identification, along with conduits for higher-resolution Landsat, ASTER, and commercial imagery as they become available. In addition to tornado damage

Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

2015-12-01

Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Li

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.

Watershed Evaluation and Habitat Response to Recent Storms : Annual Report for 1998.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rhodes, Jonathan J.; Huntington, Charles W.

1999-01-01

Large and powerful storm systems moved through the Pacific Northwest during the wet season of 1995-96, triggering widespread flooding, mass erosion, and, possibly altering salmon habitats in affected watersheds. This project study was initiated to assess whether watershed conditions are causing damage, triggered by storm events, to salmon habitat on public lands in the Snake River basin.

The assessment of Urban Storm Inundation

Science.gov (United States)

Setyandito, Oki; Wijayanti, Yureana; Alwan, Muhammad; Chayati, Cholilul; Meilani

2017-12-01

A Sustainable and integrated plan in order to solve urban storm inundation problem, is an urgent issue in Indonesia. A reliable and complete datasets of urban storm inundation area in Indonesia should become its basis to give clear description of inundation area for formulating the best solution. In this study, Statistics Indonesia data in thirty three provinces were assessed during 2000 until 2012 providing data series of urban flood area, flood frequency and land cover changes. Drainage system condition in big cities should be well understood to ensure its infrastructure condition and performance. If inundation occurred, it can be concluded that there is drainage system problem. Inundation data is also important for drainage system design process in the future. The study result is provided estimation of urban storm inundation area based on calculation of Statistics Indonesia data. Moreover, this study is preceded by analyzing and reviewing the capacity of existing drainage channel, using case study of Mataram, West Nusa Tenggara. Rainfall data was obtained from three rainfall stations surround Mataram City. The storm water quantity was calculated using three different approaches as follows: 1) Rational Method; 2) Summation of existing inundation and surface run off discharge; 3) Discharge calculation from existing channel dimensions. After that, the result of these approaches was compared. The storm water quantity gap was concluded as quantity of inundation. The result shows that 36% of drainage channel in Brenyok Kanan River sub system could not accommodate the storm water runoff in this area, which causing inundation. The redesign of drainage channel using design discharge from Rational Method approach should be performed. Within area with the lowest level topography, a construction of detention or storage pond is essential to prevent inundation in this area. Furthermore, the benefits and drawbacks of the statistics database are discussed. Recommendations

Report on Damage in Storm 05.01.08

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kofoed, Jens Peter; Friis-Madsen, Erik; Christensen, Lars

The report describes a number of observations at the energy converter Wave Dragon, Nissum Bredning, during the storm on January 8th 2005.......The report describes a number of observations at the energy converter Wave Dragon, Nissum Bredning, during the storm on January 8th 2005....

Application of crowdsourced hail data and damage information for hail risk assessment in the province of Styria, Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Tani, Satyanarayana; Rechberger, Andreas; Süsser Rechberger, Barbara; Teschl, Reinhard; Paulitsch, Helmut

2017-04-01

Hail storm damage is a major concern to the farmers in the province of Styria, Austria. Each year severe hail storms are causing damages to crops, resulting in losses of millions of euros. High spatial and timely ground truth information of the hail event and crop damage measurements are essential for better hail risk assessment. Usually, hail pad networks and visual damage surveys are used to collect the hail data and corresponding damage information. However, these hail pad networks are expensive and need laborious maintenance. The traditional crop damage assessment approaches are very labour-intensive and time-consuming. The advancements in information and communication technology (ICT) and the power of citizen based crowdsourcing data, will help to overcome these problems and ultimately provide a platform for data collection. A user-friendly and bilingual web interface was developed to collect hail data and crop damage information in the province of Styria, Austria. The dynamic web interface was developed using HTML5, JavaScript, and PHP7 combined with a MySQL database back-end. OpenStreetMap was integrated into the web interface and tile server optimised for an easy identification of geolocation information. The user needs an internet connection to transfer the data through smartphone or computer. Crowdsourced data will be quality tested and evaluated with 3D single polarisation C-band weather radar data to remove potential false reports. Further, the relationship between the reported hail events and radar-based hail detection algorithms (Waldvogel and Auer) and derived hail signature information intended for crop hail risk assessment will be investigated. The details about the web interface tool, application and verification methods to collect, analyse, and integrate different data sets are given. Further, the high spatial risk assessment information is communicated to support risk management policy.

Watershed evaluation and habitat response to recent storms : annual report for 1998; ANNUAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, Charles W.; Rhodes, Jonathan J.

1999-01-01

Large and powerful storm systems moved through the Pacific Northwest during the wet season of 1995-96, triggering widespread flooding, mass erosion, and, possibly altering salmon habitats in affected watersheds. This project study was initiated to assess whether watershed conditions are causing damage, triggered by storm events, to salmon habitat on public lands in the Snake River basin

Flood Losses Associated with Winter Storms in the U.S. Northeast

Science.gov (United States)

Ting, M.; Shimkus, C.

2015-12-01

Winter storms pose a number of hazards to coastal communities in the U.S. Northeast including heavy rain, snow, strong wind, cold temperatures, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions in property damages from one storm alone. This study addresses the impacts of winter storms from 2001 - 2012 on coastal counties in the U.S. Northeast and underscores the significant economic consequences extreme winter storms have on property. The analysis on the types of hazards (floods, strong wind, snow, etc.) and associated damage from the National Climatic Data Center Storm Events Database indicates that floods were responsible for the highest damages. This finding suggests that winter storm vulnerability could grow in the future as precipitation intensity increases and sea level rise exacerbate flood losses. Flood loss maps are constructed based on damage amount, which can be compared to the flood exposure maps constructed by the NOAA Office of Coastal Management. Interesting agreements and discrepancies exist between the two methods, which warrant further examination. Furthermore, flood losses often came from storms characterized as heavy precipitation storms and strong surge storms, and sometimes both, illustrating the compounding effect of flood risks in the region. While New Jersey counties experienced the most damage per unit area, there is no discernable connection between population density and damage amount, which suggests that societal impacts may rely less on population characteristics and more on infrastructure types and property values, which vary throughout the region.

Analysis of Storm Surge in Hong Kong

Science.gov (United States)

Kao, W. H.

2017-12-01

A storm surge is a type of coastal flood that is caused by low-pressure systems such as tropical cyclones. Storm surges caused by tropical cyclones can be very powerful and damaging, as they can flood coastal areas, and even destroy infrastructure in serious cases. Some serious cases of storm surges leading to more than thousands of deaths include Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans and Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippines. Hong Kong is a coastal city that is prone to tropical cyclones, having an average of 5-6 tropical cyclones entering 500km range of Hong Kong per year. Storm surges have seriously damaged Hong Kong in the past, causing more than 100 deaths by Typhoon Wanda (1962), and leading to serious damage to Tai O and Cheung Chau by Typhoon Hagupit (2008). To prevent economic damage and casualties from storm surges, accurately predicting the height of storm surges and giving timely warnings to citizens is very important. In this project, I will be analyzing how different factors affect the height of storm surge, mainly using data from Hong Kong. These factors include the windspeed in Hong Kong, the atmospheric pressure in Hong Kong, the moon phase, the wind direction, the intensity of the tropical cyclone, distance between the tropical cyclone and Hong Kong, the direction of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, the speed of movement of the tropical cyclone and more. My findings will also be compared with cases from other places, to see if my findings also apply for other places.

Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

Science.gov (United States)

Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

2012-04-01

In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of

Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Narita, D.; Anthoff, D.; Tol, R.S.J.

2010-01-01

Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. In the

Winter storm intensity, hazards, and property losses in the New York tristate area.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimkus, Cari E; Ting, Mingfang; Booth, James F; Adamo, Susana B; Madajewicz, Malgosia; Kushnir, Yochanan; Rieder, Harald E

2017-07-01

Winter storms pose numerous hazards to the Northeast United States, including rain, snow, strong wind, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions of dollars in damages from one storm alone. This study investigates meteorological intensity and impacts of winter storms from 2001 to 2014 on coastal counties in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York and underscores the consequences of winter storms. The study selected 70 winter storms on the basis of station observations of surface wind strength, heavy precipitation, high storm tide, and snow extremes. Storm rankings differed between measures, suggesting that intensity is not easily defined with a single metric. Several storms fell into two or more categories (multiple-category storms). Following storm selection, property damages were examined to determine which types lead to high losses. The analysis of hazards (or events) and associated damages using the Storm Events Database of the National Centers for Environmental Information indicates that multiple-category storms were responsible for a greater portion of the damage. Flooding was responsible for the highest losses, but no discernible connection exists between the number of storms that afflict a county and the damage it faces. These results imply that losses may rely more on the incidence of specific hazards, infrastructure types, and property values, which vary throughout the region. © 2017 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of The New York Academy of Sciences.

Using Satellite Remote Sensing to assist the National Weather Service (NWS) in Storm Damage Surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, L. A.; Molthan, A.; McGrath, K.; Bell, J. R.; Cole, T.; Burks, J.

2016-12-01

In recent years, the NWS has developed a GIS-based application, called the Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT), to conduct storm surveys after severe weather events. At present, the toolkit is primarily used for tornado damage surveys and facilitates the identification of damage indicators in accordance with the Enhanced Fujita (EF) intensity scale by allowing surveyors to compare time- and geo-tagged photos against the EF scale guidelines. Mobile and web-based applications provide easy access to the DAT for NWS personnel while performing their duties in the field or office. Multispectral satellite remote sensing imagery has demonstrated benefits for the detection and mapping of damage tracks caused by tornadoes, especially for long-track events and/or areas not easily accessed by NWS personnel. For example, imagery from MODIS, Landsat 7, Landsat 8, ASTER, Sentinel 2, and commercial satellites, collected and distributed in collaboration with the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System, have been useful for refining track location and extent through a "bird's eye" view of the damaged areas. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been working with the NWS and USGS to provide imagery and derived products from polar-orbiting satellite platforms to assist in the detection and refinement of tornado tracks as part of a NASA Applied Science: Disasters project. Working closely with select Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and Regional Operations Centers (ROCs) in both the NWS Central and Southern regions, high- and medium-resolution (0.5 - 30 m and 250 m - 1 km resolutions, respectively) imagery and derived products have been provided to the DAT interface for evaluation of operational utility by the NWS for their use in both the field and in the office during post event analysis. Highlighted in this presentation will be case studies where the remotely sensed imagery assisted in the adjustment of a tornado track. Examples will be shown highlighting

Geomagnetic storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNamara, A.G.

1980-01-01

Disturbances due to geomagnetic storms can affect the functioning of communications satellites and of power lines and other long conductors. Two general classes of geomagnetic activity can be distinguished: ionospheric current flow (the auroral electrojet), and magnetospheric compression. Super magnetic storms, such as the one of August 1972, can occur at any time and average about 17 occurrences per century. Electrical transmission systems can be made more tolerant of such events at a price, but the most effective way to minimize damage is by better operator training coupled with effective early warning systems. (LL)

Low-e Storm Windows: Market Assessment and Pathways to Market Transformation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cort, Katherine A.

2013-06-08

Field studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) have shown that the use of low-e storm windows can lead to significant heating and cooling energy savings in residential homes. This study examines the market for low-e storm windows based on market data, case studies, and recent experience with weatherization deployment programs. It uses information from interviews conducted with DOE researchers and industry partners involved in case studies and early deployment efforts related to low-e storm windows. In addition, this study examines potential barriers to market acceptance, assesses the market and energy savings potential, and identifies opportunities to transform the market for low-e storm windows and overcome market adoption barriers.

Rapid Damage Assessment by Means of Multi-Temporal SAR — A Comprehensive Review and Outlook to Sentinel-1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Plank

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Fast crisis response after natural disasters, such as earthquakes and tropical storms, is necessary to support, for instance, rescue, humanitarian, and reconstruction operations in the crisis area. Therefore, rapid damage mapping after a disaster is crucial, i.e., to detect the affected area, including grade and type of damage. Thereby, satellite remote sensing plays a key role due to its fast response, wide field of view, and low cost. With the increasing availability of remote sensing data, numerous methods have been developed for damage assessment. This article gives a comprehensive review of these techniques focusing on multi-temporal SAR procedures for rapid damage assessment: interferometric coherence and intensity correlation. The review is divided into six parts: First, methods based on coherence; second, the ones using intensity correlation; and third, techniques using both methodologies combined to increase the accuracy of the damage assessment are reviewed. Next, studies using additional data (e.g., GIS and optical imagery to support the damage assessment and increase its accuracy are reported. Moreover, selected studies on post-event SAR damage assessment techniques and examples of other applications of the interferometric coherence are presented. Then, the preconditions for a successful worldwide application of multi-temporal SAR methods for damage assessment and the limitations of current SAR satellite missions are reported. Finally, an outlook to the Sentinel-1 SAR mission shows possible solutions of these limitations, enabling a worldwide applicability of the presented damage assessment methods.

Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over historical storm tracks

Science.gov (United States)

Lapidez, J. P.; Tablazon, J.; Dasallas, L.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Cabacaba, K. M.; Ramos, M. M. A.; Suarez, J. K.; Santiago, J.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Malano, V.

2015-07-01

Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on 7 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 m were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH) which is the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) of the Philippine government to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948-2013. One product of this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as a basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, and other critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation scheme.

Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over historical storm tracks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. P. Lapidez

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR on 7 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 m were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH which is the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST of the Philippine government to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948–2013. One product of this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as a basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, and other critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation scheme.

The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

Science.gov (United States)

Barbier, Edward B; Georgiou, Ioannis Y; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J

2013-01-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

Applications of Earth Remote Sensing for Identifying Tornado and Severe Weather Damage

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Lori; Molthan, Andrew; Burks, Jason E.; Bell, Jordan; McGrath, Kevin; Cole, Tony

2016-01-01

NASA SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center) provided MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) imagery to WFOs (Weather Forecast Offices) in Alabama to support April 27th, 2011 damage assessments across the state. SPoRT was awarded a NASA Applied Science: Disasters Feasibility award to investigate the applicability of including remote sensing imagery and derived products into the NOAA/NWS (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather System) Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT). Proposal team was awarded the 3-year proposal to implement a web mapping service and associate data feeds from the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) to provide satellite imagery and derived products directly to the NWS thru the DAT. In the United States, NOAA/NWS is charged with performing damage assessments when storm or tornado damage is suspected after a severe weather event. This has led to the development of the Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT), an application for smartphones, tablets and web browsers that allows for the collection, geo-location, and aggregation of various damage indicators collected during storm surveys.

Wildlife and habitat damage assessment from Hurricane Charley: recommendations for recovery of the J. N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge Complex

Science.gov (United States)

Meyers, J. Michael; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Smith, Thomas J.; Pednault-Willett, Kendra

2006-01-01

• On 13 August 2004, the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in Key waterbird nesting areas had >50% and sometimes 90% of their vegetation severely damaged (dead, broken tree stems, and tipped trees). The Shell Mound Trail area of JNDDNWR sustained catastrophic damage to its old growth mangrove forests. Direct storm mortality and injury to manatees in the area of the JNDDNWR Complex was probably slight as manatees may have several strategies to reduce storm mortality. Damage to seagrass beds, an important habitat for manatees, fishes and invertebrates, is believed to be limited to the breach at North Captiva Island. At this breach, refuge staff documented inundation of beds by sand and scarring by trees dragged by winds. • Because seagrass beads and manatee habitat extend beyond refuge boundaries (see p. 28), a regional approach with partner agencies to more thoroughly assess storm impacts and monitor recovery of seagrass and manatees is recommended. • Besides intensive monitoring of waterbirds and their nesting habitat (pre- and post-storm), the survey team recommends that the Mangrove Cuckoo be used as an indicator species for recovery of mangrove forests and also for monitoring songbirds at risk (this songbird is habitat-area sensitive). Black-whiskered Vireo may be another potential indicator species to monitor in mangrove forests. Monitoring for these species can be done by distance sampling on transects or by species presenceabsence from point counts. • Damaged vegetation should be monitored for recovery (permanent or long-term plots), especially where previous study plots have been established and with additional plots in mangrove forests of waterbird nesting islands and freshwater wetlands. • Potential loss of wetlands (and information for management) may be prevented by water level monitoring (3 permanent stations), locating the positions (GPS-GIS) and maintaining existing water control structures, creating a GIS map of the refuge with

Health Effects of Coastal Storms and Flooding in Urban Areas: A Review and Vulnerability Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn Lane

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events.

Health effects of coastal storms and flooding in urban areas: a review and vulnerability assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lane, Kathryn; Charles-Guzman, Kizzy; Wheeler, Katherine; Abid, Zaynah; Graber, Nathan; Matte, Thomas

2013-01-01

Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC) may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events.

Uncertainty Assessment in Urban Storm Water Drainage Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren

The object of this paper is to make an overall description of the author's PhD study, concerning uncertainties in numerical urban storm water drainage models. Initially an uncertainty localization and assessment of model inputs and parameters as well as uncertainties caused by different model...

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

2011-01-01

coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

A Basis Function Approach to Simulate Storm Surge Events for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

2017-04-01

Storm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions, especially when it coincides with other flood producing mechanisms, such as extreme rainfall. Therefore, storm surge has always been a research focus in coastal flood risk assessment. Often numerical models have been developed to understand storm surge events for risk assessment (Kumagai et al. 2016; Li et al. 2016; Zhang et al. 2016) (Bastidas et al. 2016; Bilskie et al. 2016; Dalledonne and Mayerle 2016; Haigh et al. 2014; Kodaira et al. 2016; Lapetina and Sheng 2015), and assess how these events may change or evolve in the future (Izuru et al. 2015; Oey and Chou 2016). However, numeric models often require a lot of input information and difficulties arise when there are not sufficient data available (Madsen et al. 2015). Alternative, statistical methods have been used to forecast storm surge based on historical data (Hashemi et al. 2016; Kim et al. 2016) or to examine the long term trend in the change of storm surge events, especially under climate change (Balaguru et al. 2016; Oh et al. 2016; Rueda et al. 2016). In these studies, often the peak of surge events is used, which result in the loss of dynamic information within a tidal cycle or surge event (i.e. a time series of storm surge values). In this study, we propose an alternative basis function (BF) based approach to examine the different attributes (e.g. peak and durations) of storm surge events using historical data. Two simple two-parameter BFs were used: the exponential function and the triangular function. High quality hourly storm surge record from 15 tide gauges around Australia were examined. It was found that there are significantly location and seasonal variability in the peak and duration of storm surge events, which provides additional insights in coastal flood risk. In addition, the simple form of these BFs allows fast simulation of storm surge events and minimises the complexity of joint probability

Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Gesch, Dean B.

2009-01-01

The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

Space Transportation System (STS)-117 External Tank (ET)-124 Hail Damage Repair Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Timmy R.; Gentz, Steven J.; Barth, Timothy S.; Minute, Stephen A.; Flowers, Cody P.; Hamilton, David A.; Null, Cynthia H.; Schafer, Charles F.

2009-01-01

Severe thunderstorms with associated hail and high winds struck the STS-117 stack on February 26, 2007. Peak winds were recorded at 62 knots with hail sizes ranging from 0.3 inch to 0.8 inch in diameter. As a result of the storm, the North Carolina Foam Institute (NCFI) type 24-124 Thermal Protection System (TPS) foam on the liquid oxygen (LO2) ogive acreage incurred significant impact damage. The NCFI on the ET intertank and the liquid hydrogen (LH2) acreage sustained hail damage. The Polymer Development Laboratory (PDL)-1034 foam of the LO2 ice frost ramps (IFRs) and the Super-Lightweight Ablator (SLA) of the LO2 cable tray also suffered minor damage. NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was asked to assess the technical feasibility of repairing the ET TPS, the reasonableness of conducting those repairs with the vehicle in a vertical, integrated configuration at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Vehicle Assemble Building (VAB), and to address attendant human factors considerations including worker fatigue and the potential for error. The outcome of the assessment is recorded in this document.

Impacts on coralligenous outcrop biodiversity of a dramatic coastal storm.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Núria Teixidó

Full Text Available Extreme events are rare, stochastic perturbations that can cause abrupt and dramatic ecological change within a short period of time relative to the lifespan of organisms. Studies over time provide exceptional opportunities to detect the effects of extreme climatic events and to measure their impacts by quantifying rates of change at population and community levels. In this study, we show how an extreme storm event affected the dynamics of benthic coralligenous outcrops in the NW Mediterranean Sea using data acquired before (2006-2008 and after the impact (2009-2010 at four different sites. Storms of comparable severity have been documented to occur occasionally within periods of 50 years in the Mediterranean Sea. We assessed the effects derived from the storm comparing changes in benthic community composition at sites exposed to and sheltered from this extreme event. The sites analyzed showed different damage from severe to negligible. The most exposed and impacted site experienced a major shift immediately after the storm, represented by changes in the species richness and beta diversity of benthic species. This site also showed higher compositional variability immediately after the storm and over the following year. The loss of cover of benthic species resulted between 22% and 58%. The damage across these species (e.g. calcareous algae, sponges, anthozoans, bryozoans, tunicates was uneven, and those with fragile forms were the most impacted, showing cover losses up to 50 to 100%. Interestingly, small patches survived after the storm and began to grow slightly during the following year. In contrast, sheltered sites showed no significant changes in all the studied parameters, indicating no variations due to the storm. This study provides new insights into the responses to large and rare extreme events of Mediterranean communities with low dynamics and long-lived species, which are among the most threatened by the effects of global change.

Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

2016-01-01

Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

Ice storm 1998 : lessons learned

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCready, J. [Eastern Ontario Model Forest, Kemptville, ON (Canada)

2006-07-01

This paper presented details of a partnership formed in response to the ice storm of 1998, which caused extensive damage to trees in woodlots and urban settings in eastern Ontario and western Quebec. The aim of the Ice Storm Forest Recovery Group was to assist in the recovery of eastern forests, collect information on the extent of the damage to trees as well as contribute to the development of assistance programs for woodlot owners and municipalities. In response to the group's request, an initial aerial survey was conducted by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources to map the extent of the damage in eastern Ontario, which was followed by a more scientific survey with the Canadian Forest Service through the development of a flying grid pattern to observe the status of trees, followed by extensive ground checks. Damage was variable, depending on tree species, stand age and composition, management practices, wind direction, topography and ice deposition patterns. A summary of the severity of damage indicated that conifers suffered less than hardwoods. Consultants were hired to prepare news releases and extension notes to the public in order to provide information for the caring of trees. Various educational workshops were held which attracted large numbers of landowners and homeowners. A literature review was undertaken to produce a summary of current published knowledge covering the effects of storms and ice damage to trees and forests. Science efforts were published in a series of papers, and financial assistance programs were then organized by governmental agencies. It was concluded that cooperation between all agencies, groups and levels of government is needed in order to coordinate effective emergency strategies. 7 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

Recent Atlantic Hurricanes, Pacific Super Typhoons, and Tropical Storm Awareness in Underdeveloped Island and Coastal Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Plondke, D. L.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. in 12 years. The next tropical storm in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was Hurricane Irma, a category 5 storm and the strongest storm to strike the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. These two storms were the third and fourth in a sequence of 10 consecutive storms to reach hurricane status in this season that ranks at least seventh among the most active seasons as measured by the Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. Assessment of damage from Harvey may prove it to be the costliest storm in U.S. history, approaching $190 billion. Irma was the first category 5 hurricane to hit the Leeward Islands, devastating island environments including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Barbuda, Saint Barthelemy, and Anguilla with sustained winds reaching at times 185 mph. Together with the two super typhoons of the 2017 Pacific season, Noru and Lan, the two Atlantic hurricanes rank among the strongest, longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record. How many more billions of dollars will be expended in recovery and reconstruction efforts following future mega-disasters comparable to those of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma? Particularly on Caribbean and tropical Pacific islands with specialized and underdeveloped economies, aging and substandard infrastructure often cannot even partially mitigate against the impacts of major hurricanes. The most frequently used measurements of storm impact are insufficient to assess the economic impact. Analysis of the storm tracks and periods of greatest storm intensity of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and Super Typhoons Lan and Noru, in spatial relationship with island and coastal administrative regions, shows that rainfall totals, flooded area estimates, and property/infrastructure damage dollar estimates are all quantitative indicators of storm impact, but do not measure the costs that result from lack of storm preparedness and education of residents

Wind damage effects of Hurricane Andrew on mangrove communities along the southwest coast of Florida, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, T.W.; Smith, T. J.; Robblee, M.B.

1995-01-01

On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew downed and defoliated an extensive swath of mangrove trees across the lower Florida peninsula. Permanent field sites were established to assess the extent of forest damage and to monitor the rate and process of forest recovery. Canopy trees suffered the highest mortality particularly for sites within and immediately north of the storm's eyewall. The type and extent of site damage, windthrow, branch loss, and defoliation generally decreased exponentially with increasing distance from the storm track. Forest damage was greater for sites in the storm's right quadrant than in the left quadrant tor the same given distance from the storm center. Stand exposure, both horizontally and vertically, increased the susceptibility and probability of forest damage and accounted for much of the local variability. Slight species differences were found. Laguncularia racemosa exceeded Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle in damage tendency under similar wind conditions. Azimuths of downed trees were strongly correlated with maximum wind speed and vector based on a hurricane simulation of the storm. Lateral branch loss and leaf defoliation on sites without windthrow damage indicated a degree of crown thinning and light penetration equivalent to treefall gaps under normally intact forest conditions. Mangrove species and forests are susceptible to catastrophic disturbance by hurricanes; the impacts of which are significant to changes in forest structure and function.

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR THE NPDES STORM WATER COMPLIANCE ALTERNATIVES AT THE SRS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shedrow, C

2006-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) prepared this environmental assessment (EA) to evaluate the potential environmental impacts associated with proposed and alternative actions to achieve water quality permit compliance at 38 storm water outfalls located at the Savannah River Site (SRS) (Figure 1-1). Effluent monitoring data indicates that some of these outfalls may not presently comply with new National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) Storm Water General Permit effluent standards that became effective July 1, 2005 (SCR000000). The NPDES permit requires that best management practices (BMPs) be implemented and maintained, as necessary, to ensure that storm water discharges at SRS do not cause or contribute to the contravention of applicable state water quality standards (WQS)

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR THE NPDES STORM WATER COMPLIANCE ALTERNATIVES AT THE SRS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shedrow, C

2006-11-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) prepared this environmental assessment (EA) to evaluate the potential environmental impacts associated with proposed and alternative actions to achieve water quality permit compliance at 38 storm water outfalls located at the Savannah River Site (SRS) (Figure 1-1). Effluent monitoring data indicates that some of these outfalls may not presently comply with new National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) Storm Water General Permit effluent standards that became effective July 1, 2005 (SCR000000). The NPDES permit requires that best management practices (BMPs) be implemented and maintained, as necessary, to ensure that storm water discharges at SRS do not cause or contribute to the contravention of applicable state water quality standards (WQS).

Initial mortality rates and extent of damage to loblolly and longleaf pine plantations affected by an ice storm in South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Don C. Bragg

2016-01-01

A major ice storm struck Georgia and the Carolinas in February of 2014, damaging or destroying hundreds of thousands of hectares of timber worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Losses were particularly severe in pine plantations in west-central South Carolina, including many on the Savannah River Site (SRS). An array of paired, mid-rotation loblolly (Pinus...

Tree recovery from ice storm injury

Science.gov (United States)

Kevin T. Smith

2015-01-01

Ice storms are part of nature, particularly in northeastern North America. The combination of air and surface temperatures, precipitation, and wind that result in damaging layers of ice is very specific, occurring infrequently at any given location. Across the region however, damaging ice is formed in fragmented areas every year. Occasionally as in December 2013 and...

The effects of storms and storm-generated currents on sand beaches in Southern Maine, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, H.W.; Kelley, J.T.; Belknap, D.F.; Dickson, S.M.

2004-01-01

Storms are one of the most important controls on the cycle of erosion and accretion on beaches. Current meters placed in shoreface locations of Saco Bay and Wells Embayment, ME, recorded bottom currents during the winter months of 2000 and 2001, while teams of volunteers profiled the topography of nearby beaches. Coupling offshore meteorological and beach profile data made it possible to determine the response of nine beaches in southern Maine to various oceanographic and meteorological conditions. The beaches selected for profiling ranged from pristine to completely developed and permitted further examination of the role of seawalls on the response of beaches to storms. Current meters documented three unique types of storms: frontal passages, southwest storms, and northeast storms. In general, the current meter results indicate that frontal passages and southwest storms were responsible for bringing sediment towards the shore, while northeast storms resulted in a net movement of sediment away from the beach. During the 1999-2000 winter, there were a greater percentage of frontal passages and southwest storms, while during the 2000-2001 winter, there were more northeast storms. The sediment that was transported landward during the 1999-2000 winter was reworked into the berm along moderately and highly developed beaches during the next summer. A northeast storm on March 5-6, 2001, resulted in currents in excess of 1 m s-1 and wave heights that reached six meters. The storm persisted over 10 high tides and caused coastal flooding and property damage. Topographic profiles made before and after the storm demonstrate that developed beaches experienced a loss of sediment volume during the storm, while sediment was redistributed along the profile on moderately developed and undeveloped beaches. Two months after the storm, the profiles along the developed beaches had not reached their pre-storm elevation. In comparison, the moderately developed and undeveloped beaches

Identification of Storm Surge Vulnerable Areas in the Philippines Through Simulations of Typhoon Haiyan-Induced Storm Surge Using Tracks of Historical Tropical Cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Lapidez, John Phillip; Suarez, John Kenneth; Tablazon, Judd; Dasallas, Lea; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Santiago, Joy; Cabacaba, Krichi May; Ramos, Michael Marie Angelo; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Malano, Vicente

2014-05-01

Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) 07 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the typhoon's storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 meters were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology, Government of the Philippines, to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948-2013. DOST-Project NOAH used the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model, a numerical code that simulates and predicts storm surges spawned by tropical cyclones. Input parameters for the storm surge model include bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed. The simulations were made using Haiyan's pressure and wind speed as the forcing parameters. The simulated storm surge height values were added to the maximum tide level obtained from WXTide, software that contains a catalogue of worldwide astronomical tides, to come up with storm tide levels. The resulting water level was used as input to FLO-2D to generate the storm tide inundation maps. One product of this study is a list of the most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a Risk-Sensitive Land Use Plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings

Dust Storm Feature Identification and Tracking from 4D Simulation Data

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, M.; Yang, C. P.

2016-12-01

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecasting models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. Normally, the model simulations are conducted in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation and time) and represent three-dimensional (3D), spatial heterogeneous features of the storm and its evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing based identification algorithm to identify critical dust storm features, and track the evolution process of dust storm events through space and time. In addition, a spatiotemporal data model is proposed, which can support the characterization and representation of dust storm events and their dynamic patterns. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations for the algorithm are conducted to test the sensitivity, and capability of identify and track dust storm events. This study has the potential to assist a better early warning system for decision-makers and the public, thus making hazard mitigation plans more effective.

Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-07-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

Plant-Damage Assessment Technique for Evaluating Military Vehicular Impacts to Vegetation in the Mojave Desert; TOPICAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D. J. Hansen; W. K. Ostler

2001-01-01

A new plant damage assessment technique was developed by plant ecologists from Bechtel Nevada at the U.S. Department of Energy's National Security Administration Nevada Operations Office and funded by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program Project CS-1131 in cooperation with the U.S. Army's National Training Center (NTC) at Fort Irwin, California. The technique establishes linear transects the width of vehicle tracts from evidence of vehicle tracks in the soil (usually during a prior training rotation period of 30 days or since the last rain or wind storm), and measures vegetation within the tracks to determine the area of plant parts being run over, the percent of the impacted parts damaged, and the percent of impacted parts expected to recover. It documents prior-damage classes based on estimated of damage that plants have apparently experienced previously (as assessed from field indicators of damage such as plant shape and height). The technique was used to evaluate different vehicle types (rubber-tire wheels vs. tracks) in six area at the NTC with different soils and training intensity levels. The technique provides tabular data that can be sorted and queried to show a variety of trends related to military vehicular impacts. The technique also appears suitable for assessing other non-military off-road traffic impacts. Findings report: (1) differences in plant sensitivity of different vehicular impacts, (2) plant cover and density by species and training area, (3) the degree to which wheels have less impact than tracks, and (4) the mean percent survival is inversely proportional to the degree of prior damage received by the vegetation (i.e., plants previously impacted have lower survival than plants not previously impacted)

Wildlife and habitat damage assessment from Hurricane Charley: recommendations for recovery of the J. N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge Complex. [Final report to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Science.gov (United States)

Meyers, J.M.; Langtimm, C.A.; Smith, T. J.; Pednault-Willett, K.

2005-01-01

On 13 August 2004, the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in 50% and sometimes 90% of their vegetation severely damaged (dead, broken tree stems, and tipped trees). Shell Mound Trail of JNDDNWR sustained catastrophic damage to its old growth mangrove forests. Direct storm mortality and injury to manatees in the area was probably slight. Because seagrass beads and manatee habitat extend beyond refuge boundaries, we recommended a regional approach with partner agencies to more thoroughly assess storm impacts and monitor recovery of seagrass and manatees. Besides intensive monitoring of waterbirds and their nesting habitat (pre- and post-storm), we recommend that the Mangrove Cuckoo be used as an indicator species for recovery of mangrove forests and also for monitoring songbirds at risk. Black-whiskered Vireo may be another potential indicator species to monitor in mangrove forests. Damaged vegetation should be monitored for recovery (permanent or long-term plots), especially where previous study plots have been established and with additional plots in mangrove forests of waterbird nesting islands and freshwater wetlands. Potential loss of wetlands may be prevented by water level monitoring, locating the positions (GPS-GIS) and maintaining existing water control structures, creating a GIS map of refuge with accurate vertical data, and monitoring and eradicating invasive plants. Invasive species, including Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) and air potato (Dioscorea bulbifora), were common in a very limited survey. As an important monitoring goal, we recommend that species presence-absence data analysis (with probability of detection) be used to determine changes in animal communities. This could be accomplished possibly with comparison to other storm-damaged and undamaged refuges in the Region. This information may be helpful to refuge managers when storms return in the future.

Clustering of European winter storms: A multi-model perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Renggli, Dominik; Buettner, Annemarie; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zimmerli, Peter

2016-04-01

The storm series over Europe in 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke, Herta) and 1999 (Anatol, Lothar, Martin) are very well known. Such clusters of severe events strongly affect the seasonally accumulated damage statistics. The (re)insurance industry has quantified clustering by using distribution assumptions deduced from the historical storm activity of the last 30 to 40 years. The use of storm series simulated by climate models has only started recently. Climate model runs can potentially represent 100s to 1000s of years, allowing a more detailed quantification of clustering than the history of the last few decades. However, it is unknown how sensitive the representation of clustering is to systematic biases. Using a multi-model ensemble allows quantifying that uncertainty. This work uses CMIP5 decadal ensemble hindcasts to study clustering of European winter storms from a multi-model perspective. An objective identification algorithm extracts winter storms (September to April) in the gridded 6-hourly wind data. Since the skill of European storm predictions is very limited on the decadal scale, the different hindcast runs are interpreted as independent realizations. As a consequence, the available hindcast ensemble represents several 1000 simulated storm seasons. The seasonal clustering of winter storms is quantified using the dispersion coefficient. The benchmark for the decadal prediction models is the 20th Century Reanalysis. The decadal prediction models are able to reproduce typical features of the clustering characteristics observed in the reanalysis data. Clustering occurs in all analyzed models over the North Atlantic and European region, in particular over Great Britain and Scandinavia as well as over Iberia (i.e. the exit regions of the North Atlantic storm track). Clustering is generally weaker in the models compared to reanalysis, although the differences between different models are substantial. In contrast to existing studies, clustering is driven by weak

Empirical STORM-E Model. [I. Theoretical and Observational Basis

Science.gov (United States)

Mertens, Christopher J.; Xu, Xiaojing; Bilitza, Dieter; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III

2013-01-01

Auroral nighttime infrared emission observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite is used to develop an empirical model of geomagnetic storm enhancements to E-region peak electron densities. The empirical model is called STORM-E and will be incorporated into the 2012 release of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The proxy for characterizing the E-region response to geomagnetic forcing is NO+(v) volume emission rates (VER) derived from the TIMED/SABER 4.3 lm channel limb radiance measurements. The storm-time response of the NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER is sensitive to auroral particle precipitation. A statistical database of storm-time to climatological quiet-time ratios of SABER-observed NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER are fit to widely available geomagnetic indices using the theoretical framework of linear impulse-response theory. The STORM-E model provides a dynamic storm-time correction factor to adjust a known quiescent E-region electron density peak concentration for geomagnetic enhancements due to auroral particle precipitation. Part II of this series describes the explicit development of the empirical storm-time correction factor for E-region peak electron densities, and shows comparisons of E-region electron densities between STORM-E predictions and incoherent scatter radar measurements. In this paper, Part I of the series, the efficacy of using SABER-derived NO+(v) VER as a proxy for the E-region response to solar-geomagnetic disturbances is presented. Furthermore, a detailed description of the algorithms and methodologies used to derive NO+(v) VER from SABER 4.3 lm limb emission measurements is given. Finally, an assessment of key uncertainties in retrieving NO+(v) VER is presented

Mitigating the health impacts of a natural disaster--the June 2007 long-weekend storm in the Hunter region of New South Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Cretikos, Michelle A; Merritt, Tony D; Main, Kelly; Eastwood, Keith; Winn, Linda; Moran, Lucille; Durrheim, David N

A severe storm that began on Thursday, 7 June 2007 brought heavy rains and gale-force winds to Newcastle, Gosford, Wyong, Sydney, and the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales. The storm caused widespread flooding and damage to houses, businesses, schools and health care facilities, and damaged critical infrastructure. Ten people died as a result of the storm, and approximately 6000 residents were evacuated. A natural disaster was declared in 19 local government areas, with damage expected to reach $1.5 billion. Additional demands were made on clinical health services, and interruption of the electricity supply to over 200,000 homes and businesses, interruption of water and gas supplies, and sewerage system pump failures presented substantial public health threats. A public health emergency operations centre was established by the Hunter New England Area Health Service to coordinate surveillance activities, respond to acute public health issues and prevent disease outbreaks. Public health activities focused on providing advice, cooperating with emergency service agencies, monitoring water quality and availability, preventing illness from sewage-contaminated flood water, assessing environmental health risks, coordinating the local government public health response, and surveillance for storm-related illness and disease outbreaks, including gastroenteritis. The local ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) radio station played a key role in disseminating public health advice. A household survey conducted within a fortnight of the storm established that household preparedness and storm warning systems could be improved.

Measurement of damage in systemic vasculitis: a comparison of the Vasculitis Damage Index with the Combined Damage Assessment Index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Suppiah, Ravi; Flossman, Oliver; Mukhtyar, Chetan

2011-01-01

To compare the Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI) with the Combined Damage Assessment Index (CDA) as measures of damage from vasculitis.......To compare the Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI) with the Combined Damage Assessment Index (CDA) as measures of damage from vasculitis....

A new survey tool to assess pluvial damage to residential buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Rözer, Viktor; Spekkers, Matthieu; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Kreibich, Heidi

2017-04-01

Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban dwellings in Europe and elsewhere in recent years. These type of flood events are caused by storm events with exceptionally high rainfall rates, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings and are commonly associated with a failure of the urban drainage system. Therefore, pluvial floods often happen with little warning and in areas that are not obviously prone to flooding. With a predicted increase in extreme weather events as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. So far little research was done on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods, as empirical damage data of pluvial flooding is scarce. Therefore, a newly developed survey tool to assess pluvial flood damage as well as the results of a comparison between two international pluvial flood case studies are presented. The questionnaire used in the two study areas was developed with the aim to create a harmonized transnational pluvial flood damage survey that can potentially be extended to other European countries. New indicator variables have been developed to account for different national and regional standards in building structure, early warning, socio-economic data and recovery. The surveys comprise interviews with 510 households in the Münster area (Germany) and 349 households in Amsterdam (the Netherlands), which were affected by the heavy rainfall events on July 28 2014. The respondents were asked more than 80 questions about the damage to their building structure and contents, as well as on topics such as early warning, emergency and precautionary measures, building properties and hazard characteristics. A comparison of the two surveys revealed strong similarities concerning damage reducing effects and the popularity of precautionary measures, besides significant differences between the mean water levels inside the house as well as the median of the building structure and content damage. A

Natural resource damage assessments: The second generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luthi, R.; Burlington, L.; Reinharz, E.; Shutler, S.

1993-01-01

The Damage Assessment Regulations Team (DART), Office of General Counsel, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has focused on developing natural resource damage assessment regulations for oil pollution in navigable waters. These procedures may lower the transaction costs of assessments, encourage joint cooperative assessments, simplify most assessments and provide technical guidance for conducting assessments. DART is developing regulations for the assessment of damages due to injuries related to oil spills under the Oil pollution Act of 1990. These regulations will involve coordination, restoration and economic valuation. NOAA encourages federal, state, tribal and foreign trustees, to develop prespill plans. Coordination with response agencies assures protection of important natural resources. The regulations provide an open record, which becomes the basis for judicial review. Various methods being developed to assess damages for injuries to natural resources include: compensation formulas for spills under 50,000 gallons of oil, the Type A model, expedited damage assessment (EDA) procedures, and comprehensive damage assessment (CDA) procedures which can be used for spills of various sizes. These procedures provide trustees with a choice for assessing natural resource damages to each oil spill. NOAA is emphasizing the importance of restoration. Restoration plans will define project goals and objectives, establish procedures and methods for site restoration, and define the approach based on sound science. Finally, numerous economic methods are identified to calculate the lost or diminished use as passive use of the affected resources

Assessing Storm Vulnerabilities and Resilience Strategies: A Scenario-Method for Engaging Stakeholders of Public/Private Maritime Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, A.; Burroughs, R.

2014-12-01

This presentation discusses a new method to assess vulnerability and resilience strategies for stakeholders of coastal-dependent transportation infrastructure, such as seaports. Much coastal infrastructure faces increasing risk to extreme events resulting from sea level rise and tropical storms. As seen after Hurricane Sandy, natural disasters result in economic costs, damages to the environment, and negative consequences on resident's quality of life. In the coming decades, tough decisions will need to be made about investment measures to protect critical infrastructure. Coastal communities will need to weigh the costs and benefits of a new storm barrier, for example, against those of retrofitting, elevating or simply doing nothing. These decisions require understanding the priorities and concerns of stakeholders. For ports, these include shippers, insurers, tenants, and ultimate consumers of the port cargo on a local and global scale, all of whom have a stake in addressing port vulnerabilities.Decision-makers in exposed coastal areas need tools to understand stakeholders concerns and perceptions of potential resilience strategies. For ports, they need answers to: 1) How will stakeholders be affected? 2) What strategies could be implemented to build resilience? 3) How effectively would the strategies mitigate stakeholder concerns? 4) What level of time and investment would strategies require? 5) Which stakeholders could/should take responsibility? Our stakeholder-based method provides answers to questions 1-3 and forms the basis for further work to address 4 and 5.Together with an expert group, we developed a pilot study for stakeholders of Rhode Island's critical energy port, the Port of Providence. Our method uses a plausible extreme storm scenario with localized visualizations and a portfolio of potential resilience strategies. We tailor a multi-criteria decision analysis tool and, through a series of workshops, we use the storm scenario, resilience strategies

Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

2016-04-01

Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

Does it make sense to modify tropical cyclones? A decision-analytic assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Klima, Kelly; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris; Emanuel, Kerry

2011-05-15

Recent dramatic increases in damages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) and improved understanding of TC physics have led DHS to fund research on intentional hurricane modification. We present a decision analytic assessment of whether it is potentially cost-effective to attempt to lower the wind speed of TCs approaching South Florida by reducing sea surface temperatures with wind-wave pumps. Using historical data on hurricanes approaching South Florida, we develop prior probabilities of how storms might evolve. The effects of modification are estimated using a modern TC model. The FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on the value of property at risk are used to estimate expected economic losses. We compare wind damages after storm modification with damages after implementing hardening strategies protecting buildings. We find that if it were feasible and properly implemented, modification could reduce net losses from an intense storm more than hardening structures. However, hardening provides "fail safe" protection for average storms that might not be achieved if the only option were modification. The effect of natural variability is larger than that of either strategy. Damage from storm surge is modest in the scenario studied but might be abated by modification.

Automated detection of geomagnetic storms with heightened risk of GIC

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Rachel L.; Leonhardt, Roman

2016-06-01

Automated detection of geomagnetic storms is of growing importance to operators of technical infrastructure (e.g., power grids, satellites), which is susceptible to damage caused by the consequences of geomagnetic storms. In this study, we compare three methods for automated geomagnetic storm detection: a method analyzing the first derivative of the geomagnetic variations, another looking at the Akaike information criterion, and a third using multi-resolution analysis of the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform of the variations. These detection methods are used in combination with an algorithm for the detection of coronal mass ejection shock fronts in ACE solar wind data prior to the storm arrival on Earth as an additional constraint for possible storm detection. The maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform is found to be the most accurate of the detection methods. The final storm detection software, implementing analysis of both satellite solar wind and geomagnetic ground data, detects 14 of 15 more powerful geomagnetic storms over a period of 2 years.

Economic valuation of acidic deposition damages: Preliminary results from the 1985 NAPAP [National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program] damage assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Callaway, J.M.; Darwin, R.F.; Nesse, R.J.

1985-01-01

This paper identifies methods used to evaluate the economic damages of acid deposition in the 1985 Damage Assessment being coordinated by the National Acid Precipitation Program. It also presents the preliminary estimates of economic damages for the Assessment. Economic damages are estimated for four effect areas: commercial agriculture and forests, recreational fishing and selected types of materials. In all but the last area, methods are used which incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and firms or simulated physical damages to resources at risk. The preliminary nature of the estimated damages in each area is emphasized. Over all, the damage estimates should be interpreted with caution. 44 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

Impact of performance interdependencies on structural vulnerability: A systems perspective of storm surge risk to coastal residential communities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatzikyriakou, Adam; Lin, Ning

2017-01-01

Interaction between residential structures during natural hazards can lead to interdependencies in their performance. During storm surge, for example, structures can affect the performance of inland buildings by generating damaging waterborne debris or by beneficially dampening surge loads. Quantifying the impact of this interaction on structural vulnerability is critical for risk assessment and informed decision-making. In this study we present and implement two general modeling approaches for investigating such interdependencies. The first method is to condition the vulnerability of a structure on the performance of neighboring buildings using a Markov model. The second uses a marginal model to account for correlation between damage observations when estimating a structure's vulnerability to the hazard. Both approaches are implemented using a case study of an impacted coastal community during Hurricane Sandy (2012). Findings indicate that a structure's performance during storm surge is strongly dependent on the damage state of the structure immediately seaward. Furthermore, considering the correlated damage states of buildings increases statistical uncertainty when relating structural performance to hazard intensity. Motivated by these findings, we propose a more coordinated approach to coastal risk mitigation which considers the effects of interdependencies on insurance pricing, structural design, mitigation strategies and community resilience. - Highlights: • Interaction between residential structures leads to performance interdependencies. • Interdependencies during storm surge are due to debris and structural shielding. • Markov model treats interdependencies as an additional demand parameter. • Marginal model incorporates damage correlation into regression estimation. • System behavior should be considered in community risk and resilience.

Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

OpenAIRE

J. Hosek; P. Musilek; E. Lozowski; P. Pytlak

2011-01-01

The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply...

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Xue; Shi, Xiaoxia; Gao, Jintian; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

2018-03-27

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China's coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Xiaoxia; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

2018-01-01

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation. PMID:29584628

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xue Jin

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc., storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

OpenAIRE

Xue Jin; Xiaoxia Shi; Jintian Gao; Tongbin Xu; Kedong Yin

2018-01-01

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is di...

Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

Impact of storms on coastlines: preparing for the future without forgetting the past? Examples from European coastlines using a Storm Impact Database

Science.gov (United States)

Ciavola, Paolo; Garnier, Emmanuel; Ferreira, Oscar; Spencer, Thomas; Armaroli, Clara

2017-04-01

Severe storms have historically affected many European coastlines but the impact of each storm has been evaluated in different ways in different countries, often using local socio-economic impact criteria (e.g. loss of lives and damage to properties). Although the Xynthia (2010) storm, Atlantic coast of France, was the largest coastal disaster of the last 50 years, similar events have previously impacted Europe. The 1953 storm surge in the southern North Sea, resulted in over 2000 deaths and extensive flooding and was the catalyst for post WWII improvements in flood defences and storm early warning systems. On a longer timescale, the very extreme storm of 1634 AD re-configured Wadden Sea coastlines, accompanied by thousands of deaths. Establishing patterns of coastal risk and vulnerability is greatly helped by the use of historical sources, as these allow the development of more complete time series of storm events and their impacts. The work to be presented was supported by the EU RISC-KIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT) Project. RISC-KIT (http://www.risckit.eu/np4/home.html) is a EU FP7 Collaborative project that has developed methods, tools and management approaches to reduce risk and increase resilience to low frequency, high-impact hydro-meteorological events in the coastal zone. These products will enhance forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities, improve the assessment of long-term coastal risk and optimize the mix of prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. We analyse historical large-scale events occurred from The Middle Ages to the 1960s at the case study sites of North Norfolk Coast (UK), the Charente-Maritime and Vendée coast (France), the Cinque Terre-Liguria (Italy), the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), and the Ria Formosa coast (Portugal). The work presented here uses a database of events built by the project, examining records for the last 300 years, including the characteristics of the storms as well as

Cross-Layer Damage Assessment for Cyber Situational Awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Peng; Jia, Xiaoqi; Zhang, Shengzhi; Xiong, Xi; Jhi, Yoon-Chan; Bai, Kun; Li, Jason

Damage assessment plays a very important role in securing enterprise networks and systems. Gaining good awareness about the effects and impact of cyber attack actions would enable security officers to make the right cyber defense decisions and take the right cyber defense actions. A good number of damage assessment techniques have been proposed in the literature, but they typically focus on a single abstraction level (of the software system in concern). As a result, existing damage assessment techniques and tools are still very limited in satisfying the needs of comprehensive damage assessment which should not result in any “blind spots”.

A Novel Ice Storm Experiment for Evaluating the Ecological Impacts of These Extreme Weather Events

Science.gov (United States)

Driscoll, C. T.; Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Fahey, T.; Fahey, R. T.; Garlick, S.; Groffman, P.; Hawley, G. J.; Schaberg, P. G.

2017-12-01

Ice storms are among the most destructive natural disturbances in some regions of the world, and are an example of an extreme weather event that can profoundly disrupt ecosystem function. Despite potential dire consequences of ice storms on ecosystems and society, we are poorly positioned to predict responses because severe ice storms are infrequent and understudied. Since it is difficult to determine when and where ice storms will occur, most previous research has consisted of ad hoc attempts to characterize impacts in the wake of major icing events. To evaluate ice storm effects in a more controlled manner, we conducted a novel ice storm manipulation experiment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. Water was sprayed above the forest canopy in sub-freezing conditions to simulate a glaze ice event. Treatments included replicate plots that received three levels of radial ice thickness (6, 13, and 19 mm) and reference plots that were not sprayed. Additionally, two of the mid-level treatment plots received ice applications in back-to-back years to evaluate effects associated with ice storm frequency. Measures of the forest canopy, including hemispherical photography, photosynthetically active radiation, and ground-based LiDAR, indicated that the ice loads clearly damaged vegetation and opened up the canopy, allowing more light to penetrate. These changes in the canopy were reflected in measurements of fine and coarse woody debris that were commensurate with the level of icing. Soil respiration declined in the most heavily damaged plots, which we attribute to changes in root activity. Although soil solution nitrogen showed clear seasonal patterns, there was no treatment response. These results differ from the severe regional natural ice storm of 1998, which caused large leaching losses of nitrate in soil solutions and stream water during the growing season after the event, due to lack of uptake by damaged vegetation. It is not yet clear why there

Development of Storm Surge Hazard Maps and Advisory System for the Philippines

Science.gov (United States)

Santiago, Joy; Mahar Francisco Lagymay, Alfredo; Caro, Carl Vincent; Suarez, John Kenneth; Tablazon, Judd; Dasallas, Lea; Garnet Goting, Prince

2016-04-01

The Philippines, located in the most active region of cyclogenesis in the world, experiences an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually. Strong winds brought by tropical cyclones, among other factors, cause storm surges that inundate the coastal areas of the country. As an archipelago with the fourth longest coastline in the world, the country is expose to the threats of storm surges. This was manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013, which devastated the country and left 6,293 deaths and approximately USD 2 billion worth of damages. To prevent such disaster from happening again, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH) developed a Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) that aims to warn communities in coastal areas against impending floods due to storm surges. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate 721 tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility from 1951-2013. The resulting storm surge time series from the simulations were added to the maximum tide levels from the WXTide software for the 4,996 observation points placed nearshore in the entire country. The storm tide levels were categorized into four groups based on their peak height to create the SSA - SSA 1 (0.01m to 2m), SSA 2 (2.01m to 3m), SSA 3 (3.01m to 4m), and SSA 4 (4m and above). The time series for each advisory level was used in inundation modelling using FLO-2D, a two-dimensional flood modeling software that uses continuity and dynamic wave momentum equation. The model produced probable extent, depth of inundation, and hazard level for each advisory level. The SSA hazard maps are used as reference to warn communities that are likely to be affected by storm surges. Advisory is released 24 hours in advance and is updated every six hours in the Project NOAH website. It is also being utilized in the pre-disaster risk assessment of the national government agencies and local government units in designing appropriate response to

No damage to bulk storage but entire customer bases wiped out in storm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that interviews with key LP-gas industry spokesmen in hurricane-ravaged South Florida following Andrew's terrifying visit presented a picture of unimaginable destruction and nearly immeasurable losses of property but miraculously, not a single significant incident involving leaks or the loss of bulk storage. In the worst reports of damage to propane company facilities, Homestead Gas loss at least one building and the Suburban/Petrolane office building in Homestead no longer exists. (Temporary office arrangements were established by Suburban/Petrolane.) The customer base of these companies has been hit very had. For a while, it appeared that one Suburban/Petrolane employee was unaccounted for but that report turned out to be false. Shortly after the storm, crews were out securing gas systems in whatever locations they could reach. In one instance in which regular travel proved impossible, the gas company was forced to travel the long way around-pulling resources out of its Key West district and going north to Homestead. It became necessary in many cases for personnel to purchase cellular phones in order to maintain contact between the office and field crew

Spatial distribution of damages from winter 2014 coastal storms in the northern coast of Spain: hazard, vulnerability and elements at risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolina Garmendia Pedraja

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The succession of storms events that hit the Galician-Cantabrian coast during the winter of 2014 caused considerable damages, in both the natural environment and the infrastructures and equipment, whose restoration was worth around 70 million € . Taking in mind the sensibility of beaches to erosion, these types of environments focused much of the analysis. The results show that the spatial distribution of those damages keep a closer relationship with the greater appreciation of these spaces by the population rather than the magnitude of the natural phenomenon or the geomorphological background. That idea confirms that the consequences of the extreme climatic events do not depend exclusively on the process hazardousness but also on the vulnerability (natural and social of the geographical area affected and the quantity and value of the elements at risk.

From Cyclone Tracks to the Costs of European Winter Storms: A Probabilistic Loss Assessment Model

Science.gov (United States)

Orwig, K.; Renggli, D.; Corti, T.; Reese, S.; Wueest, M.; Viktor, E.; Zimmerli, P.

2014-12-01

European winter storms cause billions of dollars of insured losses every year. Therefore, it is essential to understand potential impacts of future events, and the role reinsurance can play to mitigate the losses. The authors will present an overview on natural catastrophe risk assessment modeling in the reinsurance industry, and the development of a new innovative approach for modeling the risk associated with European winter storms.The new innovative approach includes the development of physically meaningful probabilistic (i.e. simulated) events for European winter storm loss assessment. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20thCentury Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of historical event properties (e.g. track, intensity, etc.). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account.The low-resolution wind footprints taken from the 20thCentury Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints for both the simulated and historical events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country and site-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific information to compute annual expected losses.

Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Corbella

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011 to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.

The second generation of natural resource damage assessments: Lessons learned?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luthi, R.B.; Burlington, L.B.; Reinharz, E.; Shutler, S.K.

1993-01-01

The Damage Assessment Regulations Team (DART), under the Office of General Counsel of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has centered its efforts on developing natural resource damage assessment regulations for oil pollution in navigable waters. These procedures will likely lower the costs associated with damage assessments, encourage joint cooperative assessments and simplify most assessments. The DART team of NOAA is developing new regulations for the assessment of damages due to injuries related to oil spills under the Oil Pollution Act of 1990. These regulations will involve coordination, restoration, and economic valuation. Various methods are currently being developed to assess damages for injuries to natural resources. The proposed means include: compensation tables for spills under 50,000 gallons, Type A model, expedited damage assessment (EDA) procedures, and comprehensive procedures. They are being developed to provide trustees with a choice for assessing natural resource damages for each oil spill

On the improvement of wave and storm surge hindcasts by downscaled atmospheric forcing: application to historical storms

Science.gov (United States)

Bresson, Émilie; Arbogast, Philippe; Aouf, Lotfi; Paradis, Denis; Kortcheva, Anna; Bogatchev, Andrey; Galabov, Vasko; Dimitrova, Marieta; Morvan, Guillaume; Ohl, Patrick; Tsenova, Boryana; Rabier, Florence

2018-04-01

Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. In order to improve preparedness for such events, a better understanding of storm-induced coastal flooding episodes is necessary. To this end, this paper highlights the use of atmospheric downscaling techniques in order to improve wave and storm surge hindcasts. The downscaling techniques used here are based on existing European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses (ERA-20C, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The results show that the 10 km resolution data forcing provided by a downscaled atmospheric model gives a better wave and surge hindcast compared to using data directly from the reanalysis. Furthermore, the analysis of the most extreme mid-latitude cyclones indicates that a four-dimensional blending approach improves the whole process, as it assimilates more small-scale processes in the initial conditions. Our approach has been successfully applied to ERA-20C (the 20th century reanalysis).

Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

Science.gov (United States)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2015-03-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline

Improving Flood Damage Assessment Models in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Amadio, M.; Mysiak, J.; Carrera, L.; Koks, E.

2015-12-01

The use of Stage-Damage Curve (SDC) models is prevalent in ex-ante assessments of flood risk. To assess the potential damage of a flood event, SDCs describe a relation between water depth and the associated potential economic damage over land use. This relation is normally developed and calibrated through site-specific analysis based on ex-post damage observations. In some cases (e.g. Italy) SDCs are transferred from other countries, undermining the accuracy and reliability of simulation results. Against this background, we developed a refined SDC model for Northern Italy, underpinned by damage compensation records from a recent flood event. Our analysis considers both damage to physical assets and production losses from business interruptions. While the first is calculated based on land use information, production losses are measured through the spatial distribution of Gross Value Added (GVA). An additional component of the model assesses crop-specific agricultural losses as a function of flood seasonality. Our results show an overestimation of asset damage from non-calibrated SDC values up to a factor of 4.5 for tested land use categories. Furthermore, we estimate that production losses amount to around 6 per cent of the annual GVA. Also, maximum yield losses are less than a half of the amount predicted by the standard SDC methods.

Seismic damage assessment of reinforced concrete containment structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, HoHyun; Koh, Hyun-Moo; Hyun, Chang-Hun; Kim, Moon-Soo; Shin, Hyun Mock

2003-01-01

This paper presents a procedure for assessing seismic damage of concrete containment structures using the nonlinear time-history numerical analysis. For this purpose, two kinds of damage index are introduced at finite element and structural levels. Nonlinear finite element analysis for the containment structure applies PSC shell elements using a layered approach leading to damage indices at finite element and structural levels, which are then used to assess the seismic damage of the containment structure. As an example of such seismic damage assessment, seismic damages of the containment structure of Wolsong I nuclear power plant in Korea are evaluated against 30 artificial earthquakes generated with a wide range of PGA according to US NRC regulatory guide 1.60. Structural responses and corresponding damage index according to the level of PGA and nonlinearity are investigated. It is also shown that the containment structure behaves elastically for earthquakes corresponding to or lower than DBE. (author)

Storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Keizo; Melrose, D.B.; Suzuki, S.

1985-01-01

At metre and decametre wavelengths long-lasting solar radio emission, consisting of thousands of short-lived spikes superimposed on a slowly varying continuum, is observed. This type of storm emission may continue for periods ranging from a few hours to several days; the long duration is one of the characteristics which distinguish storms from other types of solar radio emission. These events are called storms or noise storms by analogy with geomagnetic storms. (author)

Storm-generated coral fragments - A viable source of transplants for reef rehabilitation

Science.gov (United States)

Garrison, V.; Ward, G.

2008-01-01

Coral reefs throughout the world have been damaged by storms, diseases, coral predators, temperature anomalies, and human activities. During the past three decades, recovery has been limited and patchy. Although a damaged coral reef cannot be restored to its original condition, interest in reef restoration is increasing. In a pilot project in the Caribbean (US Virgin Islands), storm-produced fragments of Acropora palmata, A. cervicornis, and Porites porites were collected from donor reefs and transplanted to nearby degraded reefs. Sixty coral fragments were attached to dead-coral substrate (usually A. palmata skeletons), at similar depths from which they had been collected (1-3.5 m), using nylon cable ties. Seventy-five intact colonies were designated as controls. Study colonies were assessed at 6-month intervals for 2 years (1999-2001) and annually thereafter (through 2004). One-fourth of the 135 colonies and fragments monitored were alive at the conclusion of the 5-year study. Survival of control and transplanted A. cervicornis and P. porites was very low (median survival 2.4 and 1.8 years, respectively), with no significant differences between transplant and control colonies. Site and depth did not contribute significantly to A. palmata colony survival, but colony size and transplant/control status did. Probability of survival increased with colony size. Median survival for A. palmata was 1.3 years for transplant and 4.3 years for natural colonies when not controlled for size. A. palmata was the only viable candidate for reef rehabilitation. Storm swells were the primary cause of mortality.

Detection of Hail Storms in Radar Imagery Using Deep Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Pullman, Melinda; Gurung, Iksha; Ramachandran, Rahul; Maskey, Manil

2017-01-01

In 2016, hail was responsible for 3.5 billion and 23 million dollars in damage to property and crops, respectively, making it the second costliest weather phenomenon in the United States. In an effort to improve hail-prediction techniques and reduce the societal impacts associated with hail storms, we propose a deep learning technique that leverages radar imagery for automatic detection of hail storms. The technique is applied to radar imagery from 2011 to 2016 for the contiguous United States and achieved a precision of 0.848. Hail storms are primarily detected through the visual interpretation of radar imagery (Mrozet al., 2017). With radars providing data every two minutes, the detection of hail storms has become a big data task. As a result, scientists have turned to neural networks that employ computer vision to identify hail-bearing storms (Marzbanet al., 2001). In this study, we propose a deep Convolutional Neural Network (ConvNet) to understand the spatial features and patterns of radar echoes for detecting hailstorms.

Analysis of synoptic situation for dust storms in Iraq

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Al-Jumaily, Kais J.; Ibrahim, Morwa K. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, Al-Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad (Iraq)

2013-07-01

Dust storms are considered major natural disasters that cause many damages to society and environment in Iraq and surrounded deserted regions. The aim of this research is to analyze and study the synoptic patterns leading to the formation of dust storms in Iraq. Analysis are based on satellite images, aerosols index and synoptic weather maps. Two severe dust storms occurred over Iraq on February 22, 2010, and on December 10, 2011 were analyzed. The results showed that dust storms form when a low-pressure system forms over Iran causing Shamal winds blow; they carry cool air from that region towards warmer regions like eastern Syria and Iraq. In some cases, this low-pressure system is followed by a high-pressure system brining more cold air to the region and pushing dust toward south. Dust storms are initiated from source regions near Iraq-Syria borders by the existence of negative vertical velocity, which causes dust particles to be lifted upwards, and the strong westerly wind drives dust to travel eastward.

Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

2010-05-01

Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www

A Case Study of Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis of Building Levees to Mitigate the Joint Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Binbin Peng

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Sea-level rise (SLR will magnify the impacts of storm surge; the resulting severe flooding and inundation can cause huge damage to coastal communities. Community leaders are considering implementing adaptation strategies, typically hard engineering projects, to protect coastal assets and resources. It is important to understand the costs and benefits of the proposed project before any decision is made. To mitigate the flooding impact of joint effects of storm surge and SLR, building levee segments is chosen to be a corresponding adaptation strategy to protect the real estate assets in the study area—the City of Miami, FL, USA. This paper uses the classic Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA to assess the cost efficiency and proposes corresponding improvements in the benefit estimation, by estimating the avoided damages of implementing levee projects. Results show that the city will benefit from implementing levee projects along the Miami River in both a one-time 10 year storm event with SLR and cumulative long-term damage scenarios. This study also suggests that conducting CBA is a critical process before making coastal adaptation planning investment. A more meaningful result of cost effectiveness is estimated by accounting for the appreciation and time value. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to verify how the choice of discount rate influences the result. Uncertain factors including the rate of SLR, storm intensification, land use changes, and real estate appreciation are further analyzed.

European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Haylock, M. R.

2011-10-01

Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. R. Haylock

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961–2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed.

The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

An assessment study of the wavelet-based index of magnetic storm activity (WISA) and its comparison to the Dst index

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zhonghua; Zhu, Lie; Sojka, Jan; Kokoszka, Piotr; Jach, Agnieszka

2008-08-01

A wavelet-based index of storm activity (WISA) has been recently developed [Jach, A., Kokoszka, P., Sojka, L., Zhu, L., 2006. Wavelet-based index of magnetic storm activity. Journal of Geophysical Research 111, A09215, doi:10.1029/2006JA011635] to complement the traditional Dst index. The new index can be computed automatically by using the wavelet-based statistical procedure without human intervention on the selection of quiet days and the removal of secular variations. In addition, the WISA is flexible on data stretch and has a higher temporal resolution (1 min), which can provide a better description of the dynamical variations of magnetic storms. In this work, we perform a systematic assessment study on the WISA index. First, we statistically compare the WISA to the Dst for various quiet and disturbed periods and analyze the differences of their spectral features. Then we quantitatively assess the flexibility of the WISA on data stretch and study the effects of varying number of stations on the index. In addition, the ability of the WISA for handling the missing data is also quantitatively assessed. The assessment results show that the hourly averaged WISA index can describe storm activities equally well as the Dst index, but its full automation, high flexibility on data stretch, easiness of using the data from varying number of stations, high temporal resolution, and high tolerance to missing data from individual station can be very valuable and essential for real-time monitoring of the dynamical variations of magnetic storm activities and space weather applications, thus significantly complementing the existing Dst index.

Computational model for the assessment of oil spill damages

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seip, K L; Heiberg, A B; Brekke, K A

1985-06-01

A description is given of the method and the required data of a model for calculating oil spill damages. Eleven damage attributes are defined: shorelength contaminated, shore restitution time, birds dead, restitution time for three groups of birds, open sea damages-two types, damages to recreation, economy and fisheries. The model has been applied in several cases of oil pollution assessments: in an examination of alternative models for the organization of oil spill combat in Norway, in the assessment of the damages coused by a blowout at Tromsoeflaket and in assessing a possible increase in oil spill preparedness for Svalbard. 56 references.

Disentangling factors that control the vulnerability of forests to catastrophic wind damage

Science.gov (United States)

Dracup, E.; Taylor, A.; MacLean, D.; Boulanger, Y.

2017-12-01

Wind is an important driver of forest dynamics along North America's north-eastern coastal forests, but also damages many commercially managed forests which society relies as an important source of wood fiber. Although the influence of wind on north-eastern forests is well recognized, knowledge of factors predisposing trees to wind damage is less known, especially in the context of large, powerful wind storm events. This is of particular concern as climate change is expected to alter the frequency and severity of strong wind storms affecting this region. On 29 September 2003, Hurricane Juan made landfall over Nova Scotia, Canada as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 158 km/h, and gusts of up to 185 km/h. Hurricane Juan variously damaged a swath of over 600,000 ha of forest. The damaged forest area was surveyed using aerial photography and LandSAT imagery and categorized according to level of wind damage sustained (none, low, moderate, severe) at a resolution of 15 x 15 m square cells. We used Random Forest to analyze and compare level of wind damage in each cell with a myriad of abiotic (exposure, depth to water table, soil composition, etc.) and biotic (tree species composition, canopy closure, canopy height, etc.) factors known or expected to predispose trees to windthrow. From our analysis, we identified topographic exposure, precipitation, and maximum gust speed as the top predictors of windthrow during Hurricane Juan. To our surprise, forest stand factors, such as tree species composition and height, had minimal effects on level of windthrow. These results can be used to construct predictive risk maps which can help society to assess the vulnerability of forests to future wind storm events.

Solar storms; Tormentas solares

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Collaboration: Pereira Cuesta, S.; Pereira Pagan, B.

2016-08-01

Solar storms begin with an explosion, or solar flare, on the surface of the sun. The X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare reach the Earths orbit minutes later-travelling at light speed. The ionization of upper layers of our atmosphere could cause radio blackouts and satellite navigation errors (GPS). Soon after, a wave of energetic particles, electrons and protons accelerated by the explosion crosses the orbit of the Earth, and can cause real and significant damage. (Author)

Detection and Prediction of Hail Storms in Satellite Imagery using Deep Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Pullman, M.; Gurung, I.; Ramachandran, R.; Maskey, M.

2017-12-01

Natural hazards, such as damaging hail storms, dramatically disrupt both industry and agriculture, having significant socio-economic impacts in the United States. In 2016, hail was responsible for 3.5 billion and 23 million dollars in damage to property and crops, respectively, making it the second costliest 2016 weather phenomenon in the United States. The destructive nature and high cost of hail storms has driven research into the development of more accurate hail-prediction algorithms in an effort to mitigate societal impacts. Recently, weather forecasting efforts have turned to deep learning neural networks because neural networks can more effectively model complex, nonlinear, dynamical phenomenon that exist in large datasets through multiple stages of transformation and representation. In an effort to improve hail-prediction techniques, we propose a deep learning technique that leverages satellite imagery to detect and predict the occurrence of hail storms. The technique is applied to satellite imagery from 2006 to 2016 for the contiguous United States and incorporates hail reports obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information Storm Events Database for training and validation purposes. In this presentation, we describe a novel approach to predicting hail via a neural network model that creates a large labeled dataset of hail storms, the accuracy and results of the model, and its applications for improving hail forecasting.

Impacts of sand and dust storms on agriculture and potential agricultural applications of a SDSWS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stefanski, R; Sivakumar, M V K

2009-01-01

This paper will give an overview of the various impacts of sand and dust storms on agriculture and then address the potential applications of a Sand and Dust Storm Warning System (SDSWS) for agricultural users. Sand and dust storms have many negative impacts on the agricultural sector including: reducing crop yields by burial of seedlings under sand deposits, the loss of plant tissue and reduced photosynthetic activity as a result of sandblasting, delaying plant development, increasing end-of-season drought risk, causing injury and reduced productivity of livestock, increasing soil erosion and accelerating the process of land degradation and desertification, filling up irrigation canals with sediments, covering transportation routes, affecting water quality of rivers and streams, and affecting air quality. One positive impact is the fertilization of soil minerals to terrestrial ecosystems. There are several potential agricultural applications of a SDSWS. The first is to alert agricultural communities farmers to take preventive action in the near-term such as harvesting maturing crops (vegetables, grain), sheltering livestock, and strengthening infrastructure (houses, roads, grain storage) for the storm. Also, the products of a SDSWS could be used in for monitoring potential locust movement and post-storm crop damage assessments. An archive of SDSWS products (movement, amount of sand and dust) could be used in researching plant and animal pathogen movement and the relationship of sand and dust storms to disease outbreaks and in developing improved soil erosion and land degradation models.

Natural resource damage assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seddelmeyer, J.

1991-01-01

The assessment and collection of natural resource damages from petroleum and chemical companies unfortunate enough to have injured publicly owned natural resources is perhaps the most rapidly expanding area of environmental liability. The idea of recovering for injury to publicly owned natural resources is an extension of traditional common law tort concepts under which a person who negligently injures another or his property is called upon to compensate the injured party. Normally, once liability has been established, it is a fairly straightforward matter to calculate the various elements of loss, such as the cost to repair or replace damaged property, or medical expenses, and lost income. More difficult questions, such as the amount to be awarded for pain and suffering or emotional distress, are left to the jury, although courts limit the circumstances in which the jury is permitted to award such damages

Landslides, Floods, and Marine Effects of the Storm of January 3-5, 1982, in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

Science.gov (United States)

Ellen, Stephen D.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.

1988-01-01

A catastrophic rainstorm in central California on January 3-5,1982, dropped as much as half the mean annual precipitation within a period of about 32 hours, triggering landslides and floods throughout 10 counties in the vicinity of the San Francisco Bay. More than 18,000 of the slides induced by the storm transformed into debris flows that swept down hillslopes or drainages with little warning. Debris flows damaged at least 100 homes, killed 14 residents, and carried a 15th victim into a creek. Shortly after rainfall ceased, more than 459,000 m3 of earth and rock slid from a mountainside above the community of Love Creek in Santa Cruz County, burying 10 people in their homes. Throughout the bay region, thousands of people vacated homes in hazardous areas, entire communities were isolated as roads were blocked, public water systems were destroyed, and power and telephone services were disrupted. Altogether, the storm damaged 6,300 homes, 1,500 businesses, and tens of kilometers of roads, bridges, and communication lines. Preliminary rough estimates of total storm damage, compiled for emergency purposes within 2 weeks of the storm, exceeded $280 million. Carefully documented direct costs from landslides exceeded $66 million; total costs from landslides certainly were greater and probably constituted a much larger proportion of the total storm damage than suggested by these disparate figures. Landslides accounted for 25 of the 33 deaths attributed to the storm.

On the Representation of an Early Modern Dutch Storm in Two Poems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katrin Pfeifer

2015-10-01

Full Text Available On 19th December 1660, a severe storm raged over the Dutch isle of Texel, causing severe damage. It proceeded to destroy parts of the city of Amsterdam. Both the sailor and merchant Gerrit Jansz Kooch and the priest Joannes Vollenhove wrote a poem about this natural disaster, presumably independently of each other. The poets perceived the storm differently: Kooch, an eyewitness of the storm, matter-of-factly portrays the calamity and details a feud between his son-in-law and a colleague to commemorate the day of the disaster. In contrast, Vollenhove personifies the winter storm and struggles to understand it. Their poems are valuable sources for a cultural historical analysis. After a brief review of historical severe storm research, I will analyse these poems from a cultural historical point of view. I will shed light on how this severe storm was represented poetically in the Early Modern Period.

Impacts of a Destructive and Well-Observed Cross-Country Winter Storm.

Science.gov (United States)

Martner, Brooks E.; Rauber, Robert M.; Ramamurthy, Mohan K.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Prater, Erwin T.

1992-02-01

A winter storm that crossed the continental United States in mid-February 1990 produced hazardous weather across a vast area of the nation. A wide range of severe weather was reported, including heavy snowfall; freezing rain and drizzle; thunderstorms with destructive winds, lightning, large hail, and tornadoes; prolonged heavy rain with subsequent flooding; frost damage to citrus orchards; and sustained destructive winds not associated with thunderstorms. Low-end preliminary estimates of impacts included 9 deaths, 27 injuries, and $120 million of property damage. At least 35 states and southeastern Canada were adversely affected. The storm occurred during the field operations of four independent atmospheric research projects that obtained special, detailed observations of it from the Rocky Mountains to the eastern great Lakes.

Assessing and Managing Natural Resource Damages: Continuing Challenges and Opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Barnthouse, Lawrence W.; Stahl, Ralph G.

2017-05-01

In a 2002 paper, we discussed the technical challenges associated with quantifying natural resource injuries, service losses and damages, and suggested some actions that might help to overcome them. An important suggestion was to consider using some of the approaches in ecological risk assessment to help evaluate potential natural resource injuries, and ultimately in some cases to help translate those injuries into natural resource service loss. This was based on the observation that ecological risk assessment and natural resource damage assessments use much of the same types of data, but at that time the experience base with ecological risk assessment was greater than for natural resource damage assessments. We also discussed some of the issues in applying the then current Department of Interior natural resource damage assessments regulations. Since our 2002 publication the scientific literature, relevant regulations, the global context and more have changed. In the current paper we focus on the technical and regulatory changes in natural resource damage assessments practice since 2002, and use recent reports and publications to illustrate those changes and identify new directions in natural resource damage assessments.

Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Hosek

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event.

The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.

WIND-STORM: A Decision Support System for the Strategic Management of Windthrow Crises by the Forest Community

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Riguelle

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Storms are one of the most damaging agents for European forests and can cause huge and long-term economic impacts on the forest sector. Recent events and research haves contributed to a better understanding and management of destructive storms, but public authorities still lack appropriate decision-support tools for evaluating their strategic decisions in the aftermath of a storm. This paper presents a decision support system (DSS that compares changes in the dynamics of the regional forest-based sector after storm events under various crisis management options. First, the development and implementation of a regional forest model is addressed; then, the potential application of the model-based DSS WIND-STORM is illustrated. The results of simulated scenarios reveal that this DSS type is useful for designing a cost-effective regional strategy for storm-damage management in the context of scarce public resources and that public strategies must encompass the whole forest-based sector to be efficient. Additional benefits of such a DSS is to bring together decision-makers and forest stakeholders for a common objective and therefore to enhance participatory approaches to crisis management.

Assessment of CLIGEN precipitation and storm pattern generation under four precipitation depth categories in China

Science.gov (United States)

CLIGEN (CLImate GENerator) is a widely used stochastic weather generator to simulate continuous daily precipitation and storm pattern information for hydrological and soil erosion models. Although CLIGEN has been tested in several regions in the world, thoroughly assessment before applying it to Chi...

Winter in the Ouachitas--a severe winter storm signature in Pinus echinata in the Ouachita Mountains of Oklahoma and Arkansas, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas J. Stevenson; Thomas B. Lynch; Pradip Saud; Robert Heineman; Randal Holeman; Dennis Wilson; Keith Anderson; Chris Cerny; James M. Guldin

2016-01-01

Each year severe winter storms (≈ice storms) damage trees throughout the southern USA. Arkansas and Oklahoma have a history of severe winter storms. To extend that history back beyond the reach of written records, a distinctive tree ring pattern or signature is needed. Storm-caused breakage, branch loss and bending stress provide that signature. We found a severe storm...

Stochastic Modeling of Empirical Storm Loss in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Prahl, B. F.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.; Burghoff, O.; Held, H.

2012-04-01

Based on German insurance loss data for residential property we derive storm damage functions that relate daily loss with maximum gust wind speed. Over a wide range of loss, steep power law relationships are found with spatially varying exponents ranging between approximately 8 and 12. Global correlations between parameters and socio-demographic data are employed to reduce the number of local parameters to 3. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to calculate German loss estimates including confidence bounds in daily and annual resolution. Our model reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitude.

Assessment of Damage and Adaptation Strategies for Structures and Infrastructure from Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise for a Coastal Community in Rhode Island, United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Small

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluation of inundation, erosion, and wave damage for a coastal community in Rhode Island, USA. A methodology called the Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI was used that incorporates levels of inundation including sea level rise, wave heights using STWAVE, and detailed information about individual structures from an E911 database. This information was input into damage functions developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers following Hurricane Sandy. Damage from erosion was evaluated separately from local published erosion rates. Using CERI, two different adaptation strategies were evaluated that included a combination of dune restoration, protective berms, and a tide gate. A total of 151 out of 708 structures were estimated to be protected from inundation and wave action by the combined measures. More importantly, the use of CERI allowed for the assessment of the impact of different adaptation strategies on both individual structures and an entire community in a Geographical Information Systems (GIS environment. This tool shows promise for use by coastal managers to assess damage and mitigate risk to coastal communities.

Assessing the Robustness of Green Infrastructure under Stochastic Design Storms and Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Chui, T. F. M.; Yang, Y.

2017-12-01

Green infrastructures (GI) have been widely used to mitigate flood risk, improve surface water quality, and to restore predevelopment hydrologic regimes. Commonly-used GI include, bioretention system, porous pavement and green roof, etc. They are normally sized to fulfil different design criteria (e.g. providing certain storage depths, limiting peak surface flow rates) that are formulated for current climate conditions. While GI commonly have long lifespan, the sensitivity of their performance to climate change is however unclear. This study first proposes a method to formulate suitable design criteria to meet different management interests (e.g. different levels of first flush reduction and peak flow reduction). Then typical designs of GI are proposed. In addition, a high resolution stochastic design storm generator using copulas and random cascade model is developed, which is calibrated using recorded rainfall time series. Then, few climate change scenarios are generated by varying the duration and depth of design storms, and changing the parameters of the calibrated storm generator. Finally, the performance of GI with typical designs under the random synthesized design storms are then assessed using numerical modeling. The robustness of the designs is obtained by the comparing their performance in the future scenarios to the current one. This study overall examines the robustness of the current GI design criteria under uncertain future climate conditions, demonstrating whether current GI design criteria should be modified to account for climate change.

Comparative risk assessments for Guadeloupe: earthquakes and storm surge

OpenAIRE

Réveillère , Arnaud; Monfort , Daniel; Lecacheux , Sophie; Grisanti , Ludovic; Muller , Héloise; Bertil , Didier; Rohmer , Jérémy; Sedan , Olivier; Douglas , John; Baills , Audrey; Modaressi , Hormoz

2012-01-01

In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exi...

Development of new geomagnetic storm ground response scaling factors for utilization in hazard assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bernabeu, E.; Weigel, R. S.; Kelbert, A.; Rigler, E. J.; Bedrosian, P.; Love, J. J.

2017-12-01

Development of realistic storm scenarios that can be played through the exposed systems is one of the key requirements for carrying out quantitative space weather hazards assessments. In the geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) and power grids context, these scenarios have to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of the geoelectric field that drives the potentially hazardous currents in the system. In response to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) order 779, a team of scientists and engineers that worked under the auspices of North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), has developed extreme geomagnetic storm and geoelectric field benchmark(s) that use various scaling factors that account for geomagnetic latitude and ground structure of the locations of interest. These benchmarks, together with the information generated in the National Space Weather Action Plan, are the foundation for the hazards assessments that the industry will be carrying out in response to the FERC order and under the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council. While the scaling factors developed in the past work were based on the best available information, there is now significant new information available for parts of the U.S. pertaining to the ground response to external geomagnetic field excitation. The significant new information includes the results magnetotelluric surveys that have been conducted over the past few years across the contiguous US and results from previous surveys that have been made available in a combined online database. In this paper, we distill this new information in the framework of the NERC benchmark and in terms of updated ground response scaling factors thereby allowing straightforward utilization in the hazard assessments. We also outline the path forward for improving the overall extreme event benchmark scenario(s) including generalization of the storm waveforms and geoelectric field spatial patterns.

Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

Science.gov (United States)

Orton, P.; Conticello, F.; Cioffi, F.; Hall, T.; Georgas, N.; Lall, U.; Blumberg, A.

2015-01-01

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are

Hurricane impacts on forest resources in the Eastern United States: a post-sandy assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Greg C. Liknes; Susan J. Crocker; Randall S. Morin; Brian F. Walters

2015-01-01

Extreme weather events play a role in shaping the composition and structure of forests. Responding to and mitigating a storm event in a forested environment requires information about the location and severity of tree damage. However, this information can be difficult to obtain immediately following an event. Post-storm assessments using regularly collected forest...

Hydrodynamic Based Decision Making Framework for Impact Assessment of Extreme Storm Events on Coastal Communities

Science.gov (United States)

Nazari, R.; Miller, K.; Hurler, C.

2015-12-01

Coastal and inland flooding has been a problematic occurrence, specifically over the past century. Global warming has caused an 8 inch sea level rise since 1990, which made the coastal flood zone wider, deeper and more damaging. Additionally, riverine flooding is extremely damaging to the country's substructure and economy as well which causes river banks to overflow, inundating low-lying areas. New Jersey and New York are two areas at severe risk for flood hazard, sea level rise, land depletion and economic loss which are the main study area of this work. A decision making framework is being built to help mitigate the impacts of the environmental and economical dangers of storm surges, sea level rise, flashfloods and inland flooding. With vigorous research and the use of innovative hydrologic modeling software, this tool can be built and utilized to form resiliency for coastal communities. This will allow the individuals living in a coastal community to understand the details of climatic hazards in their area and risks associated to their communities. This tool will also suggest the best solution for the problem each community faces. Atlantic City and New York City has been modeled and compared using potential storm events and the outcomes have been analyzed. The tool offers all the possible solutions for the type of flooding that occurs. Green infrastructure such as rain gardens, detention basins and green roofs can be used as small scale solutions. Greater scale solutions such as removable flood barriers, concrete walls and height adjustable walls will also be displayed if that poses as the best solution. The results and benefits from the simulation and modeling techniques, will allow coastal communities to choose the most appropriate method for building a long lasting and sustainable resilience plan in the future.

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

Science.gov (United States)

Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Roger, Jean; Arnaud, Gael; Zahibo, Narcisse

2017-09-01

In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge - up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil K.; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

2018-01-01

This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented.Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion.Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term

Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil Kamal; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

2018-01-01

This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented. Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion. Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term detrimental

Interaction of ice storms and management practices on current carbon sequestration in forests with potential mitigation under future CO2 atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Heather R. McCarthy; Ram Oren; Hyun-Seok Kim; Kurt H. Johnsen; Chris Maier; Seth G. Pritchard; Michael A. Davis

2006-01-01

Ice storms are disturbance events with potential impacts on carbon sequestration. Common forest management practices, such as fertilization and thinning, can change wood and stand properties and thus may change vulnerability to ice storm damage. At the same time, increasing atmospheric CO2 levels may also influence ice storm vulnerability. Here...

Motivations and sensation seeking characteristics of recreational storm chasers

Science.gov (United States)

Shuangyu Xu; Sonja Wilhelm Stanis; Carla Barbieri; Jiawen. Chen

2012-01-01

Little is known about recreational storm chasing, a type of risk recreation that has increased in popularity since the 1990s. This study was conducted to understand factors associated with participation in recreational storm chasing in the United States. Particularly, this study assessed the motivations and sensation seeking attributes of recreational storm chasers, as...

Coupled effects of wind-storms and drought on tree mortality across 115 forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains.

Science.gov (United States)

Csilléry, Katalin; Kunstler, Georges; Courbaud, Benoît; Allard, Denis; Lassègues, Pierre; Haslinger, Klaus; Gardiner, Barry

2017-12-01

Damage due to wind-storms and droughts is increasing in many temperate forests, yet little is known about the long-term roles of these key climatic factors in forest dynamics and in the carbon budget. The objective of this study was to estimate individual and coupled effects of droughts and wind-storms on adult tree mortality across a 31-year period in 115 managed, mixed coniferous forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains. For each stand, yearly mortality was inferred from management records, yearly drought from interpolated fields of monthly temperature, precipitation and soil water holding capacity, and wind-storms from interpolated fields of daily maximum wind speed. We performed a thorough model selection based on a leave-one-out cross-validation of the time series. We compared different critical wind speeds (CWSs) for damage, wind-storm, and stand variables and statistical models. We found that a model including stand characteristics, drought, and storm strength using a CWS of 25 ms -1 performed the best across most stands. Using this best model, we found that drought increased damage risk only in the most southerly forests, and its effect is generally maintained for up to 2 years. Storm strength increased damage risk in all forests in a relatively uniform way. In some stands, we found positive interaction between drought and storm strength most likely because drought weakens trees, and they became more prone to stem breakage under wind-loading. In other stands, we found negative interaction between drought and storm strength, where excessive rain likely leads to soil water saturation making trees more susceptible to overturning in a wind-storm. Our results stress that temporal data are essential to make valid inferences about ecological impacts of disturbance events, and that making inferences about disturbance agents separately can be of limited validity. Under projected future climatic conditions, the direction and strength of these

Categorizing natural disaster damage assessment using satellite-based geospatial techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Myint, S.W.; Yuan, M.; Cerveny, R.S.; Giri, C.

2008-01-01

Remote sensing of a natural disaster's damage offers an exciting backup and/or alternative to traditional means of on-site damage assessment. Although necessary for complete assessment of damage areas, ground-based damage surveys conducted in the aftermath of natural hazard passage can sometimes be potentially complicated due to on-site difficulties (e.g., interaction with various authorities and emergency services) and hazards (e.g., downed power lines, gas lines, etc.), the need for rapid mobilization (particularly for remote locations), and the increasing cost of rapid physical transportation of manpower and equipment. Satellite image analysis, because of its global ubiquity, its ability for repeated independent analysis, and, as we demonstrate here, its ability to verify on-site damage assessment provides an interesting new perspective and investigative aide to researchers. Using one of the strongest tornado events in US history, the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado, as a case example, we digitized the tornado damage path and co-registered the damage path using pre- and post-Landsat Thematic Mapper image data to perform a damage assessment. We employed several geospatial approaches, specifically the Getis index, Geary's C, and two lacunarity approaches to categorize damage characteristics according to the original Fujita tornado damage scale (F-scale). Our results indicate strong relationships between spatial indices computed within a local window and tornado F-scale damage categories identified through the ground survey. Consequently, linear regression models, even incorporating just a single band, appear effective in identifying F-scale damage categories using satellite imagery. This study demonstrates that satellite-based geospatial techniques can effectively add spatial perspectives to natural disaster damages, and in particular for this case study, tornado damages.

Features of risks, damage claims processing and damage prevention overseas. Pt. 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Splittgerber, E

1981-01-01

In opening up new raw material resources in remote locations and in the erection of industrial installations in overseas countries, manufacturers are often confronted with additional, unusual and hitherto unknown risks which can have considerable influence upon the orderly and timely execution of their projects. In Part I, various risk factors are considered from the experiences of Allianz as technical insurer in foreign damages connected with plant, civil and installation work insurance. The influence of climatic conditions upon damage events is illustrated with examples and the effects of storm, sand storm, flooding and earthquake discussed using a world map of natural dangers. The customs of people from culturally different nations and races, dictated as they often are by religion, must be taken into account by site managers and other staff on the building sites. The necessity for improvisations on building sites far from home and the limits of such improvisations are also discussed.

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to

Crowdsourcing earthquake damage assessment using remote sensing imagery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stuart Gill

2011-06-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of recent work on using crowdsourced analysis of remote sensing imagery, particularly high-resolution aerial imagery, to provide rapid, reliable assessments of damage caused by earthquakes and potentially other disasters. The initial effort examined online imagery taken after the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. A more recent response to the 2010 Haiti earthquake led to the formation of an international consortium: the Global Earth Observation Catastrophe Assessment Network (GEO-CAN. The success of GEO-CAN in contributing to the official damage assessments made by the Government of Haiti, the United Nations, and the World Bank led to further development of a web-based interface. A current initiative in Christchurch, New Zealand, is underway where remote sensing experts are analyzing satellite imagery, geotechnical engineers are marking liquefaction areas, and structural engineers are identifying building damage. The current site includes online training to improve the accuracy of the assessments and make it possible for even novice users to contribute to the crowdsourced solution. The paper discusses lessons learned from these initiatives and presents a way forward for using crowdsourced remote sensing as a tool for rapid assessment of damage caused by natural disasters around the world.

A retrospective tiered environmental assessment of the Mount Storm Wind Energy Facility, West Virginia,USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Efroymson, Rebecca Ann [ORNL; Day, Robin [No Affiliation; Strickland, M. Dale [Western EcoSystems Technology

2012-11-01

Bird and bat fatalities from wind energy projects are an environmental and public concern, with post-construction fatalities sometimes differing from predictions. Siting facilities in this context can be a challenge. In March 2012 the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released Land-based Wind Energy Guidelines to assess collision fatalities and other potential impacts to species of concern and their habitats to aid in siting and management. The Guidelines recommend a tiered approach for assessing risk to wildlife, including a preliminary site evaluation that may evaluate alternative sites, a site characterization, field studies to document wildlife and habitat and to predict project impacts, post construction studies to estimate impacts, and other post construction studies. We applied the tiered assessment framework to a case study site, the Mount Storm Wind Energy Facility in Grant County, West Virginia, USA, to demonstrate the use of the USFWS assessment approach, to indicate how the use of a tiered assessment framework might have altered outputs of wildlife assessments previously undertaken for the case study site, and to assess benefits of a tiered ecological assessment framework for siting wind energy facilities. The conclusions of this tiered assessment for birds are similar to those of previous environmental assessments for Mount Storm. This assessment found risk to individual migratory tree-roosting bats that was not emphasized in previous preconstruction assessments. Differences compared to previous environmental assessments are more related to knowledge accrued in the past 10 years rather than to the tiered structure of the Guidelines. Benefits of the tiered assessment framework include good communication among stakeholders, clear decision points, a standard assessment trajectory, narrowing the list of species of concern, improving study protocols, promoting consideration of population-level effects, promoting adaptive management through post

The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. H. Fink

2009-03-01

Full Text Available The synoptic evolution and some meteorological impacts of the European winter storm Kyrill that swept across Western, Central, and Eastern Europe between 17 and 19 January 2007 are investigated. The intensity and large storm damage associated with Kyrill is explained based on synoptic and mesoscale environmental storm features, as well as on comparisons to previous storms. Kyrill appeared on weather maps over the US state of Arkansas about four days before it hit Europe. It underwent an explosive intensification over the Western North Atlantic Ocean while crossing a very intense zonal polar jet stream. A superposition of several favourable meteorological conditions west of the British Isles caused a further deepening of the storm when it started to affect Western Europe. Evidence is provided that a favourable alignment of three polar jet streaks and a dry air intrusion over the occlusion and cold fronts were causal factors in maintaining Kyrill's low pressure very far into Eastern Europe.

Kyrill, like many other strong European winter storms, was embedded in a pre-existing, anomalously wide, north-south mean sea-level pressure (MSLP gradient field. In addition to the range of gusts that might be expected from the synoptic-scale pressure field, mesoscale features associated with convective overturning at the cold front are suggested as the likely causes for the extremely damaging peak gusts observed at many lowland stations during the passage of Kyrill's cold front. Compared to other storms, Kyrill was by far not the most intense system in terms of core pressure and circulation anomaly. However, the system moved into a pre-existing strong MSLP gradient located over Central Europe which extended into Eastern Europe. This fact is considered determinant for the anomalously large area affected by Kyrill.

Additionally, considerations of windiness in climate change simulations using two state-of-the-art regional climate

Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

Science.gov (United States)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

Increasing Flood Risk due to Run-off Outflow near Estuarine City during Storm Event

Science.gov (United States)

Son, S.; Lee, C.; Do, K.; Jung, T.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclone easily causes inundation damage to low-lying coastal area and the damage may be amplified due to tide motion, sea-level rise, riverine discharges. Specifically, typhoons are accompanied by intensive rainfall, which will of course raise the river water level and thus enhance the flooding damages. If the tidal cycle coincides the high water, flooding will be even aggravated. In the present study, we simulated storm surge motions at the coastal area considering combined effects of tidal and river discharge with aim to improve the accuracy of flooding prediction. The quasi 3-dimension ocean circulation model, Delf3D was used which solves the unsteady shallow water equation in the 2D and 3D. Since Delft3D is much applicable to accommodate the indirect flooding factors such as riverine discharge and short waves, outer-coupled modeling system was established to account for combined tide-surge-riverine discharge effects. In such integrated system, 11 tidal constituents were input as open boundary condition using TPXO 7.2 model, while the water level per unit time was preliminary calculated by HEC-HMS model and input as the upstream boundary conditions for river inside the domain. Typhoon MAEMI which attacked Masan city located at southern coast of South Korea and caused severe inundation damages in 2003 was selected for the study event. Basic information for typhoon such as path, wind speed, atmospheric pressure every 3 hours was provided by the Korea Meteorological Agency and was adopted. The simulation was implemented with tide and storm surge boundary conditions focusing on the target area, Masan, while the additional consideration on the discharge of the river inside the domain was also made. Simulated water level at the fixed location was compared to the observation for its verification and the extent of inundation areas of Masan were compared between observed and calculated. The marginal contribution of riverine discharge on the flooding area

Analysis of storm-tide impacts from Hurricane Sandy in New York

Science.gov (United States)

Schubert, Christopher E.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Hearn, Paul P.; Rahav, Ami N.; Behrens, Riley; Finkelstein, Jason S.; Monti, Jack; Simonson, Amy E.

2015-07-21

The hybrid cyclone-nor’easter known as Hurricane Sandy affected the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during October 28-30, 2012, causing extensive coastal flooding. Prior to storm landfall, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network from Virginia to Maine to record the storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. This sensor network augmented USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent monitoring sites that also documented storm surge. Continuous data from these networks were supplemented by an extensive post-storm high-water-mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign. The sensor deployment and HWM campaign were conducted under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The need for hydrologic interpretation of monitoring data to assist in flood-damage analysis and future flood mitigation prompted the current analysis of Hurricane Sandy by the USGS under this FEMA mission assignment.

Damage to offshore infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico by hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Cruz, A. M.; Krausmann, E.

2009-04-01

The damage inflicted by hurricanes Katrina and Rita to the Gulf-of-Mexico's (GoM) oil and gas production, both onshore and offshore, has shown the proneness of industry to Natech accidents (natural hazard-triggered hazardous-materials releases). In order to contribute towards a better understanding of Natech events, we assessed the damage to and hazardous-materials releases from offshore oil and natural-gas platforms and pipelines induced by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Data was obtained through a review of published literature and interviews with government officials and industry representatives from the affected region. We also reviewed over 60,000 records of reported hazardous-materials releases from the National Response Center's (NRC) database to identify and analyze the hazardous-materials releases directly attributed to offshore oil and gas platforms and pipelines affected by the two hurricanes. Our results show that hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed at least 113 platforms, and severely damaged at least 53 others. Sixty percent of the facilities destroyed were built 30 years ago or more prior to the adoption of the more stringent design standards that went into effect after 1977. The storms also destroyed 5 drilling rigs and severely damaged 19 mobile offshore drilling units (MODUs). Some 19 MODUs lost their moorings and became adrift during the storms which not only posed a danger to existing facilities but the dragging anchors also damaged pipelines and other infrastructure. Structural damage to platforms included toppling of sections, and tilting or leaning of platforms. Possible causes for failure of structural and non-structural components of platforms included loading caused by wave inundation of the deck. Failure of rigs attached to platforms was also observed resulting in significant damage to the platform or adjacent infrastructure, as well as damage to equipment, living quarters and helipads. The failures are attributable to tie-down components

Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online

Science.gov (United States)

Podladchikova, Tatiana; Petrukovich, Anatoly; Yermolaev, Yuri

2018-04-01

Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011-2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.

Atmospheric circulation and storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Surkova, Galina V.; Arkhipkin, Victor S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

2013-12-01

Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961-2000) and future (2046-2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961-2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961-2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21st century.

Responses of two genetically superior loblolly pine clonal ideotypes to a severe ice storm

Science.gov (United States)

Lauren S. Pile; Christopher A. Maier; G. Geoff Wang; Dapao Yu; Tim M. Shearman

2016-01-01

An increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, such as major ice storms, can have severe impacts on southern forests. We investigated the damage inflicted by a severe ice storm that occurred in February 2014 on two loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) ideotypes in Cross, South Carolina located in the southeastern coastal plain. The ‘‘narrow crown”...

Solar noise storms

CERN Document Server

Elgaroy, E O

2013-01-01

Solar Noise Storms examines the properties and features of solar noise storm phenomenon. The book also presents some theories that can be used to gain a better understanding of the phenomenon. The coverage of the text includes topics that cover the features and behavior of noise storms, such as the observable features of noise storms; the relationship between noise storms and the observable features on the sun; and ordered behavior of storm bursts in the time-frequency plane. The book also covers the spectrum, polarization, and directivity of noise storms. The text will be of great use to astr

A socioeconomic assessment of climate change-enhanced coastal storm hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Science.gov (United States)

Baron, H. M.; Ruggiero, P.; Harris, E.

2010-12-01

Every winter, coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest are at risk to coastal change hazards caused by extreme storm events. These storms have the potential to erode large portions of the primary foredune that may be a community’s only barrier from the ocean. Furthermore, the frequency and magnitude of significant erosion events appears to be increasing, likely due to climate-related processes such as sea level rise and increases in storm wave heights. To reduce risks posed by winter storms, it is not only important to determine the impending physical impacts but it is also necessary to explore the vulnerability of the social-ecological system in the context of these hazards. Here we assess the exposure to both annually occurring and extreme storm events at various planning timelines using a methodology that incorporates the effect of a variable and changing climate on future total water levels. To do this, we have developed a suite of climate change scenarios involving a range of projections for the wave climate, global sea level rise, and the occurrence of El Niño events through 2100. Simple geometric models are then used to conservatively determine the extent of erosion that may occur for a given combination of these climatic factors. We integrate the physical hazards with socioeconomic data using a geographic information system (GIS) in order to quantify societal vulnerability, characterized by the exposure and sensitivity of a community, which is based on the distribution of people, property, and resources. Here we focus on a 14 km stretch of dune-backed coast in northwest Oregon, from Cascade Head to Cape Kiwanda—the location of two communities that, historically, have experienced problematic storm-induced coastal change, Pacific City and Neskowin. Although both of these communities have similar exposure to coastal change hazards at the present, Neskowin is more than twice as sensitive to erosion because almost all of its residents and community

Tropical storm off Myanmar coast sweeps reefs in Ritchie's Archipelago, Andaman

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Krishnan, P.; Grinson-George, G.; Vikas, N.; Titus-Immanuel, T.; Goutham-Bharathi, M.P.; Anand, A; VinodKumar, K.; SenthilKumar, S.

The reefs in some islands of Andaman and Nicobar suffered severe damage following a tropical storm in the Bay of Bengal off Myanmar coast during 13-17 March 2011. Surveys were conducted at eight sites in Andaman, of which five were located...

Wave modelling to assess the storm conditions in the Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Rusu, Liliana; Raileanu, Alina

2014-05-01

The work proposed herewith presents the results of a ten-year wave hindcast performed in the Black Sea and focused on the storm conditions. A wave modelling system, SWAN based, was implemented in the basin of the Black Sea. Validations have been performed both against in situ and remotely sensed data for the entire ten-year period considered (1999-2008). The wind field provided by NCEP-CFSR (United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) with a spatial resolution of 0.312ºx0.312º and a temporal resolution of 3 hours was considered for forcing the wave model. In statistical terms, the results are in general in line with those provided by similar wave prediction systems implemented in enclosed or semi-enclosed seas, the most important factors in increasing the general system reliability being the accuracy and resolution of the wind fields considered. As regards the physical processes, the calibration tests performed show that whitecapping still represents the weak link in deep water wave modelling. The most relevant storm conditions encountered in this ten-year period considered were further analysed. This analysis was performed from the point of view of the intensity, location of occurrence, duration and propagation in the geographical space of the storms. Following the results of the work, the western side of the sea is more energetic and almost each year storms with significant wave heights of about eight meters are encountered in this part of the Black Sea, while in the case of the extreme storms significant wave heights even greater than eleven meters may occur. From this perspective, it can be concluded that the present work provides valuable information about the characteristics of the storm conditions and on their dynamics in the Black Sea. Moreover, this marine environment is currently subjected to high navigation traffic and to offshore operations and the strong storms that systematically occur may produce

Shoreline recovery from storms on the east coast of Southern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Corbella, S.; Stretch, D. D.

2012-01-01

Episodic extreme waves due to sea storms can cause severe coastal erosion. The recovery times of such events are important for the analysis of risk and coastal vulnerability. The recovery period of a storm damaged coastline represents a time when the coastline is most vulnerable and nearby infrastructure is at the greatest risk. We propose that identification of the beach recovery period can be used as a coastal management tool when determining beach usage. As a case study, we analyse 37 yr of beach profile data on the east coast of South Africa. Considering beach length and cross-sectional area, we establish a global recovery period and rate and identify the physical characteristics of the coastlines that either accelerate or retard recovery. The beaches in the case study were found to take an average of two years to recover at a rate of approximately 90 m3 m-1 yr-1. Beach profiles with vegetated dunes recovered faster than urbanized beaches. Perpendicular beach structures have both positive and negative effects on beach recovery. Coastlines with rock outcrops in the surf zone tend to recover slowly and long-term sediment loss was identified in cases where storm damaged beaches have not recovered to pre-erosion levels.

Damage assessment in structure from changes in static parameter ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

damage assessment methodology will be a valuable tool in timely ... of the numerical model to the physical system are prerequisites for success. Wu et al ... The objective of the present paper is to locate and assess the damage occurring at any posi- ... This method leads to the recent very popular neural network learning.

Methodology for a GIS-based damage assessment for researchers following large scale disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Crawford, Patrick Shane

The 1990s were designated the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction by the United Nations General Assembly. This push for decrease of loss of life, property destruction, and social and economic disruption brought advancements in disaster management, including damage assessment. Damage assessment in the wake of natural and manmade disasters is a useful tool for government agencies, insurance companies, and researchers. As technologies evolve damage assessment processes constantly evolve as well. Alongside the advances in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, as well as the growing awareness of the needs of a standard operating procedure for GIS-based damage assessment and a need to make the damage assessment process as quick and accurate as possible, damage assessment procedures are becoming easier to execute and the results are becoming more accurate and robust. With these technological breakthroughs, multi-disciplinary damage assessment reconnaissance teams have become more efficient in their assessment methods through better organization and more robust through addition of new datasets. Damage assessment personnel are aided by software tools that offer high-level analysis and increasingly rapid damage assessment methods. GIS software has advanced the damage assessment methods of these teams by combining remotely sensed aerial imagery, GPS, and other technologies to expand the uses of the data. GIS allows researchers to use aerial imagery to show field collected data in the geographic location that it was collected so that information can be revisited, measurements can be taken, and data can be disseminated to other researchers and the public. The GIS-based data available to the reconnaissance team includes photographs of damage, worksheets, calculations, voice messages collected while studying the affected area, and many other datasets which are based on the type of disaster and the

Ice damage in loblolly pine: understanding the factors that influence susceptibility

Science.gov (United States)

Doug P. Aubrey; Mark D. Coleman; David R. Coyle

2007-01-01

Winter ice storms frequently occur in the southeastern United States and can severely damage softwood plantations. In January 2004, a severe storm deposited approximately 2 cm of ice on an intensively managed 4-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation in South Carolina. Existing irrigation and fertilization treatments presented an...

Benthic habitat and fish assemblage structure from shallow to mesophotic depths in a storm-impacted marine protected area

Science.gov (United States)

Abesamis, Rene A.; Langlois, Tim; Birt, Matthew; Thillainath, Emma; Bucol, Abner A.; Arceo, Hazel O.; Russ, Garry R.

2018-03-01

Baseline ecological studies of mesophotic coral ecosystems are lacking in the equatorial Indo-West Pacific region where coral reefs are highly threatened by anthropogenic and climate-induced disturbances. Here, we used baited remote underwater video to describe benthic habitat and fish assemblage structure from 10 to 80 m depth at Apo Island, a well-managed marine protected area in the Philippines. We conducted surveys 2 yr after two storms (in 2011 and 2012) caused severe damage to shallow coral communities within the no-take marine reserve (NTMR) of Apo Island, which led to declines in fish populations that had built up over three decades. We found that hard coral cover was restricted to the storm-impacted NTMR and a nearby fished area not impacted by storms. Benthic cover at mesophotic depths (> 30 m) was dominated by sand/rubble and rock (dead coral) with low cover of soft corals, sponges and macroalgae. Storm damage appeared to have reached the deepest limit of the fringing reef (40 m) and reduced variability in benthic structure within the NTMR. Species richness and/or abundance of most trophic groups of fish declined with increasing depth regardless of storm damage. There were differences in taxonomic and trophic structure and degree of targeting by fisheries between shallow and mesophotic fish assemblages. Threatened shark species and a fish species previously unreported in the Philippines were recorded at mesophotic depths. Our findings provide a first glimpse of the benthic and fish assemblage structure of Philippine coral reef ecosystems across a wide depth gradient. This work also underscores how a combination of limited coral reef development at mesophotic depths close to shallow reefs and severe habitat loss caused by storms would result in minimal depth refuge for reef fish populations.

Development of targeted STORM for super resolution imaging of biological samples using digital micro-mirror device

Science.gov (United States)

Valiya Peedikakkal, Liyana; Steventon, Victoria; Furley, Andrew; Cadby, Ashley J.

2017-12-01

We demonstrate a simple illumination system based on a digital mirror device which allows for fine control over the power and pattern of illumination. We apply this to localization microscopy (LM), specifically stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy (STORM). Using this targeted STORM, we were able to image a selected area of a labelled cell without causing photo-damage to the surrounding areas of the cell.

Vibration Based Damage Assessment of a Cantilever using a Neural Network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Rytter, A.

In this paper the possibility of using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network trained with with the Backpropagation Algorithm as a non-destructive damage assessment technique to locate and quantify a damage in structures is investigated.......In this paper the possibility of using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network trained with with the Backpropagation Algorithm as a non-destructive damage assessment technique to locate and quantify a damage in structures is investigated....

Effects of the May 5-6, 1973, storm in the Greater Denver area, Colorado

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Wallace R.

1973-01-01

Rain began falling on the Greater Denver area the evening of Saturday, May 5, 1973, and continued through most of Sunday, May 6. Below about 7,000 feet altitude, the precipitation was mostly rain; above that altitude, it was mostly snow. Although the rate of fall was moderate, at least 4 inches of rain or as much as 4 feet of snow accumulated in some places. Sustained precipitation falling at a moderate rate thoroughly saturated the ground and by midday Sunday sent most of the smaller streams into flood stage. The South Platte River and its major tributaries began to flood by late Sunday evening and early Monday morning. Geologic and hydrologic processes activated by the May 5-6 storm caused extensive damage to lands and to manmade structures in the Greater Denver area. Damage was generally most intense in areas where man had modified the landscape--by channel constrictions, paving, stripping of vegetation and topsoil, and oversteepening of hillslopes. Roads, bridges, culverts, dams, canals, and the like were damaged or destroyed by erosion and sedimentation. Streambanks and structures along them were scoured. Thousands of acres of croplands, pasture, and developed urban lands were coated with mud and sand. Flooding was intensified by inadequate storm sewers, blocked drains, and obstructed drainage courses. Saturation of hillslopes along the Front Range caused rockfalls, landslides, and mudflows as far west as Berthoud Pass. Greater attention to geologic conditions in land-use planning, design, and construction would minimize storm damage in the future.

Nonlinear resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (NRUS) applied to damage assessment in bone

Science.gov (United States)

Muller, Marie; Sutin, Alexander; Guyer, Robert; Talmant, Maryline; Laugier, Pascal; Johnson, Paul A.

2005-12-01

Nonlinear resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (NRUS) is a resonance-based technique exploiting the significant nonlinear behavior of damaged materials. In NRUS, the resonant frequency(ies) of an object is studied as a function of the excitation level. As the excitation level increases, the elastic nonlinearity is manifest by a shift in the resonance frequency. This study shows the feasibility of this technique for application to damage assessment in bone. Two samples of bovine cortical bone were subjected to progressive damage induced by application of mechanical cycling. Before cycling commenced, and at each step in the cycling process, NRUS was applied for damage assessment. For independent assessment of damage, high-energy x-ray computed tomography imaging was performed but was only useful in identifying the prominent cracks. As the integral quantity of damage increased, NRUS revealed a corresponding increase in the nonlinear response. The measured change in nonlinear response is much more sensitive than the change in linear modulus. The results suggest that NRUS could be a potential tool for micro-damage assessment in bone. Further work must be carried out for a better understanding of the physical nature of damaged bone and for the ultimate goal of the challenging in vivo implementation of the technique.

Learning Storm

CERN Document Server

Jain, Ankit

2014-01-01

If you are a Java developer who wants to enter into the world of real-time stream processing applications using Apache Storm, then this book is for you. No previous experience in Storm is required as this book starts from the basics. After finishing this book, you will be able to develop not-so-complex Storm applications.

New insights on geomagnetic storms from observations and modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jordanova, Vania K [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01

Understanding the response at Earth of the Sun's varying energy output and forecasting geomagnetic activity is of central interest to space science, since intense geomagnetic storms may cause severe damages on technological systems and affect communications. Episodes of southward (Bzstorms representative of each interplanetary condition with our kinetic ring current atmosphere interactions model (RAM), and investigate the mechanisms responsible for trapping particles and for causing their loss. We find that periods of increased magnetospheric convection coinciding with enhancements of plasma sheet density are needed for strong ring current buildup. During the HSS-driven storm the convection potential is highly variable and causes small sporadic injections into the ring current. The long period of enhanced convection during the CME-driven storm causes a continuous ring current injection penetrating to lower L shells and stronger ring current buildup.

Current understanding of magnetic storms: Storm-substorm relationships

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamide, Y.; Gonzalez, W.D.; Baumjohann, W.; Daglis, I.A.; Grande, M.; Joselyn, J.A.; Singer, H.J.; McPherron, R.L.; Phillips, J.L.; Reeves, E.G.; Rostoker, G.; Sharma, A.S.; Tsurutani, B.T.

1998-01-01

This paper attempts to summarize the current understanding of the storm/substorm relationship by clearing up a considerable amount of controversy and by addressing the question of how solar wind energy is deposited into and is dissipated in the constituent elements that are critical to magnetospheric and ionospheric processes during magnetic storms. (1) Four mechanisms are identified and discussed as the primary causes of enhanced electric fields in the interplanetary medium responsible for geomagnetic storms. It is pointed out that in reality, these four mechanisms, which are not mutually exclusive, but interdependent, interact differently from event to event. Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are found to be the primary phenomena responsible for the main phase of geomagnetic storms. The other two mechanisms, i.e., HILDCAA (high-intensity, long-duration, continuous auroral electrojet activity) and the so-called Russell-McPherron effect, work to make the ICME and CIR phenomena more geoeffective. The solar cycle dependence of the various sources in creating magnetic storms has yet to be quantitatively understood. (2) A serious controversy exists as to whether the successive occurrence of intense substorms plays a direct role in the energization of ring current particles or whether the enhanced electric field associated with southward IMF enhances the effect of substorm expansions. While most of the Dst variance during magnetic storms can be solely reproduced by changes in the large-scale electric field in the solar wind and the residuals are uncorrelated with substorms, recent satellite observations of the ring current constituents during the main phase of magnetic storms show the importance of ionospheric ions. This implies that ionospheric ions, which are associated with the frequent occurrence of intense substorms, are accelerated upward along magnetic field lines, contributing to the energy density of the

Assessing inundation hazards to nuclear powerplant sites using geologically extended histories of riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Jim; Atwater, Brian F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Cronin, Thomas M.; Keith, Mackenzie K.; Smith, Christopher G.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

2014-01-01

Most nuclear powerplants in the United States are near rivers, large lakes, or oceans. As evident from the Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, disaster of 2011, these water bodies pose inundation threats. Geologic records can extend knowledge of rare hazards from flooding, storm surges, and tsunamis. This knowledge can aid in assessing the safety of critical structures such as dams and energy plants, for which even remotely possible hazards are pertinent. Quantitative analysis of inundation from geologic records perhaps is most developed for and applied to riverine flood hazards, but because of recent natural disasters, geologic investigations also are now used widely for understanding tsunami hazards and coastal storm surges.

A matter of scale: damage from Hurricane Hugo (1989) to U.S. Virgin Islands reefs at the colony, community and whole reef level

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, Caroline S.

1993-01-01

Studies at Buck Island Reef National Monument (St. Croix) and Virgin Islands National Park (St. John) by scientists in the U.S. National Park Service Coral Reef Assessment Program re- vealed the effects of Humcane Hugo on individual coral species, community parameters, and overall reef structure. Effects of the storm varied with depth, coral species, location relative to the storm path, character of the pre-storm communities, and ecological history. Live coral cover, initially less than 30% at all sites, dropped by 40 to 73%. Cover by the dominant species Montastrea annularis de- clined about 35% on the St. John reefs. At Buck Island, Acropora palmata cover, already reduced from 85% to 5% by white band disease and storms, fell to 0.8% after Hugo. Some areas on the south side of Buck Island were reduced to rubble pave- ment while other areas escaped serious damage. Data from cores at Buck Island reveal the influence of wave energy and storm frequency on overall reef character. Patchiness and variation in the responses of different species, zones, and entire reefs to the storm suggest that assessment of long-term trends in reef structure and composition requires analysis of changes at permanent study sites distributed over large areas.

Shoreline recovery from storms on the east coast of Southern Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Corbella

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Episodic extreme waves due to sea storms can cause severe coastal erosion. The recovery times of such events are important for the analysis of risk and coastal vulnerability. The recovery period of a storm damaged coastline represents a time when the coastline is most vulnerable and nearby infrastructure is at the greatest risk. We propose that identification of the beach recovery period can be used as a coastal management tool when determining beach usage. As a case study, we analyse 37 yr of beach profile data on the east coast of South Africa. Considering beach length and cross-sectional area, we establish a global recovery period and rate and identify the physical characteristics of the coastlines that either accelerate or retard recovery. The beaches in the case study were found to take an average of two years to recover at a rate of approximately 90 m³ m⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Beach profiles with vegetated dunes recovered faster than urbanized beaches. Perpendicular beach structures have both positive and negative effects on beach recovery. Coastlines with rock outcrops in the surf zone tend to recover slowly and long-term sediment loss was identified in cases where storm damaged beaches have not recovered to pre-erosion levels.

Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overflow performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szeląg Bartosz

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overfl ow performance. This research study analyzes the effect of the rainfall characteristics (total and maximum 10-, 15- and 30-minute rainfall depth, its duration, the dry weather period on the performance of the emergency overflow weir located at the inflow to an existing treatment plant. The analyses used the numerical calculation results of the inflow hydrographs performed in the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model program on the basis of six-year-long rainfall measurement sequence. The obtained simulation results for the analysed catchment allowed for the performance of statistical analyses, which demonstrated that the volume of stormwater discharge, the maximum instantaneous flow and the share of stormwater volume discharged through the emergency overflow weir in relation to the total volume of the inflow hydrograph from the catchment are affected by the maximum 30-minute rainfall depth, whereas the discharge duration is affected by the depth of the catchment rainfall layer. Taking into account the results of statistical and hydraulic calculations it can be concluded that in the case of the analysed catchment the performance of the emergency overflow weir is affected to the greatest extent by the rainfall intensity distribution.

Modelling the economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Welker, Christoph; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Martius, Olivia; Brönnimann, Stefan

2014-05-01

Severe winter storms such as "Vivian" in February 1990 and "Lothar" in December 1999 are among the most destructive meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Disaster severity resulting from such windstorms is attributable, on the one hand, to hazardous weather conditions such as high wind gust speeds; and on the other hand to socio-economic factors such as population density, distribution of values at risk, and damage susceptibility. For present-day winter storms, the data basis is generally good to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated socio-economic impacts. In contrast, the information on historic windstorms is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. This study illustrates a promising technique to simulate the economic impacts of both historic and present winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our approach makes use of the novel Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) spanning 1871-present. The 2-degree spatial resolution of the global 20CR dataset is relatively coarse. Thus, the complex orography of Switzerland is not realistically represented, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of wind systems that are strongly influenced by the local orography, such as Föhn winds. Therefore, a dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was performed, for in total 40 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871. Based on the downscaled wind gust speeds and the climada loss model, the estimated economic losses were calculated at municipality level for current economic and social conditions. With this approach, we find an answer to the question what would be the economic losses of e.g. a hazardous Föhn storm - which occurred in northern Switzerland in February 1925 - today, i.e. under current socio-economic conditions. Encouragingly, the pattern of

Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities

Science.gov (United States)

Prahl, Boris F.; Boettle, Markus; Costa, Luís; Kropp, Jürgen P.; Rybski, Diego

2018-01-01

The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves. PMID:29557944

Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities

Science.gov (United States)

Prahl, Boris F.; Boettle, Markus; Costa, Luís; Kropp, Jürgen P.; Rybski, Diego

2018-03-01

The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves.

Seamless Modeling for Research & Predictability of Severe Tropical Storms from Weather-to-Climate Timescales

Science.gov (United States)

Ramaswamy, V.; Chen, J. H.; Delworth, T. L.; Knutson, T. R.; Lin, S. J.; Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Damages from catastrophic tropical storms such as the 2017 destructive hurricanes compel an acceleration of scientific advancements to understand the genesis, underlying mechanisms, frequency, track, intensity, and landfall of these storms. The advances are crucial to provide improved early information for planners and responders. We discuss the development and utilization of a global modeling capability based on a novel atmospheric dynamical core ("Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere or FV3") which captures the realism of the recent tropical storms and is a part of the NOAA Next-Generation Global Prediction System. This capability is also part of an emerging seamless modeling system at NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for simulating the frequency of storms on seasonal and longer timescales with high fidelity e.g., Atlantic hurricane frequency over the past decades. In addition, the same modeling system has also been employed to evaluate the nature of projected storms on the multi-decadal scales under the influence of anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The seamless modeling system thus facilitates research into and the predictability of severe tropical storms across diverse timescales of practical interest to several societal sectors.

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Forcing. Report 3. Intermediate Submission No. 1.3

Science.gov (United States)

2013-07-01

The storm surge study considers both tropical storms and extratropical cyclones for determination of return period storm surge elevations. The...Appendix B: Extratropical Cyclone Selection in Support of FEMA Region III Storm Surge Modeling...stations applied in the storm selection process. ............................................. 56  Table B2. Extratropical cyclones selected from the

Building Adjustable Pre-storm Reservoir Flood-control Release Rules

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shun-Nien; Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John; Hsieh, Cheng-Daw

2017-04-01

Typhoons hit Taiwan several times every year, which could cause serious flood disasters. Because mountainous terrains and steep landforms can rapidly accelerate the speed of flood flow during typhoon events, rivers cannot be a stable source of water supply. Reservoirs become the most effective floodwater storage facilities for alleviating flood damages in Taiwan. The pre-storm flood-control release can significantly increase reservoir storage capacity available to store floodwaters for reducing downstream flood damage, while the uncertainties of total forecasted rainfalls are very high in different stages of an oncoming typhoon, which may cause the risk of water shortage in the future. This study proposes adjustable pre-storm reservoir flood-control release rules in three designed operating stages with various hydrological conditions in the Feitsui Reservoir, a pivot reservoir for water supply to Taipei metropolitan in Taiwan, not only to reduce the risk of reservoir flood control and downstream flooding but also to consider water supply. The three operating stages before an oncoming typhoon are defined upon the timings when: (1) typhoon news is issued (3-7days before typhoon hit); (2) the sea warning is issued (2-4 days before typhoon hit); and (3) the land warning is issued (1-2 days before typhoon hit). We simulate 95 historical typhoon events with 3000 initial water levels and build some pre-storm flood-control release rules to adjust the amount of pre-release based on the total forecasted rainfalls at different operating stages. A great number of simulations (68.4 millions) are conducted to extract their major consequences and then build the adjustable pre-storm reservoir flood-control release rules. Accordingly, given a total forecasted rainfall and a water level, reservoir decision makers can easily identify the corresponding rule to tell the amount of pre-release in any stage. The results show that the proposed adjustable pre-release rules can effectively

Changes of forest stands vulnerability to future wind damage resulting from different management methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Panferov, O.; Sogachev, Andrey; Ahrends, B.

2010-01-01

The structure of forests stands changes continuously as a result of forest growth and both natural and anthropogenic disturbances like windthrow or management activities – planting/cutting of trees. These structure changes can stabilize or destabilize forest stands in terms of their resistance...... to wind damage. The driving force behind the damage is the climate, but the magnitude and sign of resulting effect depend on tree species, management method and soil conditions. The projected increasing frequency of weather extremes in the whole and severe storms in particular might produce wide area...... damage in European forest ecosystems during the 21st century. To assess the possible wind damage and stabilization/destabilization effects of forest management a number of numeric experiments are carried out for the region of Solling, Germany. The coupled small-scale process-based model combining Brook90...

Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Dannenberg, Matthew P; Wise, Erika K

2017-11-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks. �

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

Science.gov (United States)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2014-10-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter

Assessing cost-effectiveness of specific LID practice designs in response to large storm events

Science.gov (United States)

Chui, Ting Fong May; Liu, Xin; Zhan, Wenting

2016-02-01

Low impact development (LID) practices have become more important in urban stormwater management worldwide. However, most research on design optimization focuses on relatively large scale, and there is very limited information or guideline regarding individual LID practice designs (i.e., optimal depth, width and length). The objective of this study is to identify the optimal design by assessing the hydrological performance and the cost-effectiveness of different designs of LID practices at a household or business scale, and to analyze the sensitivity of the hydrological performance and the cost of the optimal design to different model and design parameters. First, EPA SWMM, automatically controlled by MATLAB, is used to obtain the peak runoff of different designs of three specific LID practices (i.e., green roof, bioretention and porous pavement) under different design storms (i.e., 2 yr and 50 yr design storms of Hong Kong, China and Seattle, U.S.). Then, life cycle cost is estimated for the different designs, and the optimal design, defined as the design with the lowest cost and at least 20% peak runoff reduction, is identified. Finally, sensitivity of the optimal design to the different design parameters is examined. The optimal design of green roof tends to be larger in area but thinner, while the optimal designs of bioretention and porous pavement tend to be smaller in area. To handle larger storms, however, it is more effective to increase the green roof depth, and to increase the area of the bioretention and porous pavement. Porous pavement is the most cost-effective for peak flow reduction, followed by bioretention and then green roof. The cost-effectiveness, measured as the peak runoff reduction/thousand Dollars of LID practices in Hong Kong (e.g., 0.02 L/103 US s, 0.15 L/103 US s and 0.93 L/103 US s for green roof, bioretention and porous pavement for 2 yr storm) is lower than that in Seattle (e.g., 0.03 L/103 US s, 0.29 L/103 US s and 1.58 L/103 US s for

Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Seismic Damage for Buildings in Mid-America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bai, Jong-Wha; Hueste, Mary Beth D.; Gardoni, Paolo

2008-01-01

This paper provides an approach to conduct a probabilistic assessment of structural damage due to seismic events with an application to typical building structures in Mid-America. The developed methodology includes modified damage state classifications based on the ATC-13 and ATC-38 damage states and the ATC-38 database of building damage. Damage factors are assigned to each damage state to quantify structural damage as a percentage of structural replacement cost. To account for the inherent uncertainties, these factors are expressed as random variables with a Beta distribution. A set of fragility curves, quantifying the structural vulnerability of a building, is mapped onto the developed methodology to determine the expected structural damage. The total structural damage factor for a given seismic intensity is then calculated using a probabilistic approach. Prediction and confidence bands are also constructed to account for the prevailing uncertainties. The expected seismic structural damage is assessed for a typical building structure in the Mid-America region using the developed methodology. The developed methodology provides a transparent procedure, where the structural damage factors can be updated as additional seismic damage data becomes available

Satellite remote sensing and cloud modeling of St. Anthony, Minnesota storm clouds and dew point depression

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, R. J.; Tsao, Y. D.

1988-01-01

Rawinsonde data and geosynchronous satellite imagery were used to investigate the life cycles of St. Anthony, Minnesota's severe convective storms. It is found that the fully developed storm clouds, with overshooting cloud tops penetrating above the tropopause, collapsed about three minutes before the touchdown of the tornadoes. Results indicate that the probability of producing an outbreak of tornadoes causing greater damage increases when there are higher values of potential energy storage per unit area for overshooting cloud tops penetrating the tropopause. It is also found that there is less chance for clouds with a lower moisture content to be outgrown as a storm cloud than clouds with a higher moisture content.

"Fair" Mathematics in Assessing Delictual Damages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L Steynberg

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the actuary is to guide the court in the calculations to be made. Relying on its wide judicial discretion the court will have the final say regarding the correctness of the assumptions on which these calculations are based. The court should give detailed reasons if any assumptions or parts of the calculations made by the actuary are rejected. It should preferably refrain from making its own calculations if an actuary is involved and should rather instruct the actuary to do recalculations if necessary. It does, however, fall within the wide discretion of the court to make a general contingency adjustment after the basic calculations have been accepted. In assessing delictual damages it is the duty of the court to ensure that both objective and subjective factors are considered in such a manner that the assessment may be regarded as an application of "fair" mathematics.

Mobile augmented reality in support of building damage and safety assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, W.; Kerle, N.; Gerke, M.

2016-02-01

Rapid and accurate assessment of the state of buildings in the aftermath of a disaster event is critical for an effective and timely response. For rapid damage assessment of buildings, the utility of remote sensing (RS) technology has been widely researched, with focus on a range of platforms and sensors. However, RS-based approaches still have limitations to assess structural integrity and the specific damage status of individual buildings. Structural integrity refers to the ability of a building to hold the entire structure. Consequently, ground-based assessment conducted by structural engineers and first responders is still required. This paper demonstrates the concept of mobile augmented reality (mAR) to improve performance of building damage and safety assessment in situ. Mobile AR provides a means to superimpose various types of reference or pre-disaster information (virtual data) on actual post-disaster building data (real buildings). To adopt mobile AR, this study defines a conceptual framework based on the level of complexity (LOC). The framework consists of four LOCs, and for each of these, the data types, required processing steps, AR implementation and use for damage assessment are described. Based on this conceptualization we demonstrate prototypes of mAR for both indoor and outdoor purposes. Finally, we conduct a user evaluation of the prototypes to validate the mAR approach for building damage and safety assessment.

Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

2015-08-01

Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

Hardwood crown injuries and rebuilding following ice storms: a literature review

Science.gov (United States)

Martin J. Kraemer; Ralph D. Nyland

2010-01-01

Ice storms occur frequently in northeastern North America. They damage and kill trees, change the structural characteristics of a forest, and may importantly alter the goods and services that owners realize from their land. This literature review summarizes 90 years of relevant information, mainly from fairly short term studies published between 1904 and 2006. It...

Thyroid gland disorder emergencies: thyroid storm and myxedema coma.

Science.gov (United States)

Hampton, Jessica

2013-01-01

Although thyroid dysfunction will develop in more than 12% of the US population during their lifetimes, true thyroid emergencies are rare. Thyroid storm and myxedema coma are endocrine emergencies resulting from thyroid hormone dysregulation, usually coupled with an acute illness as a precipitant. Careful assessment of risk and rapid action, once danger is identified, are essential for limiting morbidity and mortality related to thyroid storm and myxedema coma. This article reviews which patients are at risk, explains thyroid storm and myxedema coma, and describes pharmacological treatment and supportive cares.

Coupling Between Doppler Radar Signatures and Tornado Damage Tracks

Science.gov (United States)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Carey, Lawrence; Carcione, Brian; Smith, Matthew; Schultz, Elise V.; Schultz, Christopher; Lafontaine, Frank

2011-01-01

On April 27, 2011, the southeastern United States was raked with several episodes of severe weather. Numerous tornadoes caused extensive damage, and tragically, the deaths of over 300 people. In Alabama alone, there were 61 confirmed tornados, 4 of them produced EF5 damage, and several were on the ground an hour or more with continuous damage tracks exceeding 80km. The use of Doppler radars covering the region provided reflectivity and velocity signatures that allowed forecasters to monitors the severe storms from beginning to end issuing hundreds of severe weather warnings throughout the day. Meteorologists from the the NWS performed extensive surveys to assess the intensity, duration, and ground track of tornadoes reported during the event. Survey activities included site visits to the affected locations, analysis of radar and satellite data, aerial surveys, and interviews with eyewitnesses. Satellite data from NASA's MODIS and ASTER instruments played a helpful role in determining the location of tornado damage paths and in the assessment. High resolution multispectral and temporal composites helped forecasters corroborate their damage assessments, determine starting and ending points for tornado touchdowns, and helped to provide forecasters with a better big-picture view of the damage region. The imagery also helped to separate damage from the April 27th tornados from severe weather that occurred earlier that month. In a post analysis of the outbreak, tornado damage path signatures observed in the NASA satellite data have been correlated to "debris ball" signatures in the NWS Doppler radars and a special ARMOR dual-polarization radar operated by the University of Alabama Huntsville during the event. The Doppler radar data indicates a circular enhanced reflectivity signal and rotational couplet in the radial velocity likely associated with the tornado that is spatially correlated with the damage tracks in the observed satellite data. An algorithm to detect and

POST-DISASTER DAMAGE ASSESSMENT THROUGH COHERENT CHANGE DETECTION ON SAR IMAGERY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Guida

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Damage assessment is a fundamental step to support emergency response and recovery activities in a post-earthquake scenario. In recent years, UAVs and satellite optical imagery was applied to assess major structural damages before technicians could reach the areas affected by the earthquake. However, bad weather conditions may harm the quality of these optical assessments, thus limiting the practical applicability of these techniques. In this paper, the application of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR imagery is investigated and a novel approach to SAR-based damage assessment is presented. Coherent Change Detection (CCD algorithms on multiple interferometrically pre-processed SAR images of the area affected by the seismic event are exploited to automatically detect potential damages to buildings and other physical structures. As a case study, the 2016 Central Italy earthquake involving the cities of Amatrice and Accumoli was selected. The main contribution of the research outlined above is the integration of a complex process, requiring the coordination of a variety of methods and tools, into a unitary framework, which allows end-to-end application of the approach from SAR data pre-processing to result visualization in a Geographic Information System (GIS. A prototype of this pipeline was implemented, and the outcomes of this methodology were validated through an extended comparison with traditional damage assessment maps, created through photo-interpretation of high resolution aerial imagery. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is able to perform damage detection with a good level of accuracy, as most of the detected points of change are concentrated around highly damaged buildings.

Post-Disaster Damage Assessment Through Coherent Change Detection on SAR Imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Guida, L.; Boccardo, P.; Donevski, I.; Lo Schiavo, L.; Molinari, M. E.; Monti-Guarnieri, A.; Oxoli, D.; Brovelli, M. A.

2018-04-01

Damage assessment is a fundamental step to support emergency response and recovery activities in a post-earthquake scenario. In recent years, UAVs and satellite optical imagery was applied to assess major structural damages before technicians could reach the areas affected by the earthquake. However, bad weather conditions may harm the quality of these optical assessments, thus limiting the practical applicability of these techniques. In this paper, the application of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery is investigated and a novel approach to SAR-based damage assessment is presented. Coherent Change Detection (CCD) algorithms on multiple interferometrically pre-processed SAR images of the area affected by the seismic event are exploited to automatically detect potential damages to buildings and other physical structures. As a case study, the 2016 Central Italy earthquake involving the cities of Amatrice and Accumoli was selected. The main contribution of the research outlined above is the integration of a complex process, requiring the coordination of a variety of methods and tools, into a unitary framework, which allows end-to-end application of the approach from SAR data pre-processing to result visualization in a Geographic Information System (GIS). A prototype of this pipeline was implemented, and the outcomes of this methodology were validated through an extended comparison with traditional damage assessment maps, created through photo-interpretation of high resolution aerial imagery. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is able to perform damage detection with a good level of accuracy, as most of the detected points of change are concentrated around highly damaged buildings.

Use of Dual-Polarization Radar Variables to Assess Low-Level Wind Shear in Severe Thunderstorm Near-storm Environments in the Tennessee Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Crowe, Christina C.; Schultz, Christopher J.; Kumjian, Matthew; Carey, Lawerence D.; Petersen, Walter A.

2011-01-01

The upgrade of the National Weather Service (NWS) network of S ]band dual-polarization radars is currently underway, and the incorporation of polarimetric information into the real ]time forecasting process will enhance the forecaster fs ability to assess thunderstorms and their near ]storm environments. Recent research has suggested that the combination of polarimetric variables differential reflectivity (ZDR) and specific differential phase (KDP) can be useful in the assessment of low level wind shear within a thunderstorm. In an environment with strong low ]level veering of the wind, ZDR values will be largest along the right inflow edge of the thunderstorm near a large gradient in horizontal reflectivity (indicative of large raindrops falling with a relative lack of smaller drops), and take the shape of an arc. Meanwhile, KDP values, which are proportional to liquid water content and indicative of a large number of smaller drops, are maximized deeper into the forward flank precipitation shield than the ZDR arc as the smaller drops are being advected further from the updraft core by the low level winds than the larger raindrops. Using findings from previous work, three severe weather events that occurred in North Alabama were examined in order to assess the utility of these signatures in determining the potential for tornadic activity. The first case is from October 26, 2010, where a large number of storms indicated tornadic potential from a standard reflectivity and velocity analysis but very few storms actually produced tornadoes. The second event is from February 28, 2011, where tornadic storms were present early on in the event, but as the day progressed, the tornado threat transitioned to a high wind threat. The third case is from April 27, 2011, where multiple rounds of tornadic storms ransacked the Tennessee Valley. This event provides a dataset including multiple modes of tornadic development, including QLCS and supercell structures. The overarching goal

Use of Remote Sensing Data to Enhance the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Damage Toolkit

Science.gov (United States)

Jedlovec, Gary; Molthan, Andrew; White, Kris; Burks, Jason; Stellman, Keith; Smith, Matthew

2012-01-01

SPoRT is improving the use of near real-time satellite data in response to severe weather events and other diasters. Supported through NASA s Applied Sciences Program. Planned interagency collaboration to support NOAA s Damage Assessment Toolkit, with spinoff opportunities to support other entities such as USGS and FEMA.

Economic Impact Analyses of Interdisciplinary Multi-hazard Scenarios: ShakeOut and ARkStorm

Science.gov (United States)

Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

2011-12-01

U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are using an interdisciplinary strategy to develop and analyze multi-hazard scenarios to help communities enhance resilience to natural hazard disasters. Two such scenarios are the southern California ShakeOut earthquake and the California ARkStorm winter storm. Both scenarios are multi-hazard: Shakeout ground motions trigger landslides and liquefaction and ARkStorm involves wind, flood, landslide, and coastal hazards. A collaborative scenario-process engages partners and stakeholders throughout the development and use of the scenarios, In doing so, community resilience is enhanced by educating communities about hazards and hazard interdependencies, building networks from scientists to decision makers, exercising emergency management strategies, identifying emergency management issues, and motivating solutions prior to an event. In addition, interdisciplinary scenarios stimulate research on the various steps of analysis (e.g., natural hazard processes, physical damages, societal consequences, and policy connections). In particular, USGS scientists have collaborated with economists to advance methods to estimate the economic impacts (business interruption losses) of disasters. Our economic impact analyses evolved from the economic module in the Federal Emergency Management Agency's loss-estimation tool, HAZUS-MH, to a more encompassing input-output analysis for ShakeOut, to a more sophisticated Computable General Equilibrium model for ARkStorm. The analyses depend on physical damage and restoration time estimates from engineers and geographic analyses of economic assets in hazard zones. Economic resilience strategies are incorporated to represent resourcefulness and ingenuity that avoids potential losses during and after an event. Such strategies operate at three levels of the economy: micro (e.g., ability to catch up on lost production time), meso (e.g., coordination within a sector to share resources), and macro (e

Towards robust optimal design of storm water systems

Science.gov (United States)

Marquez Calvo, Oscar; Solomatine, Dimitri

2015-04-01

In this study the focus is on the design of a storm water or a combined sewer system. Such a system should be capable to handle properly most of the storm to minimize the damages caused by flooding due to the lack of capacity of the system to cope with rain water at peak times. This problem is a multi-objective optimization problem: we have to take into account the minimization of the construction costs, the minimization of damage costs due to flooding, and possibly other criteria. One of the most important factors influencing the design of storm water systems is the expected amount of water to deal with. It is common that this infrastructure is developed with the capacity to cope with events that occur once in, say 10 or 20 years - so-called design rainfall events. However, rainfall is a random variable and such uncertainty typically is not taken explicitly into account in optimization. Rainfall design data is based on historical information of rainfalls, but many times this data is based on unreliable measures; or in not enough historical information; or as we know, the patterns of rainfall are changing regardless of historical information. There are also other sources of uncertainty influencing design, for example, leakages in the pipes and accumulation of sediments in pipes. In the context of storm water or combined sewer systems design or rehabilitation, robust optimization technique should be able to find the best design (or rehabilitation plan) within the available budget but taking into account uncertainty in those variables that were used to design the system. In this work we consider various approaches to robust optimization proposed by various authors (Gabrel, Murat, Thiele 2013; Beyer, Sendhoff 2007) and test a novel method ROPAR (Solomatine 2012) to analyze robustness. References Beyer, H.G., & Sendhoff, B. (2007). Robust optimization - A comprehensive survey. Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg., 3190-3218. Gabrel, V.; Murat, C., Thiele, A. (2014

Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

Science.gov (United States)

Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

2012-01-01

The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

Klaus, an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France - a comparison between storm diagnostics

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Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Trigo, I. F.; Trigo, R. M.

2010-05-01

The synoptic evolution and dynamical characteristics of storm "Klaus" (23 and 24 January 2009) are analysed. "Klaus" was an extratropical cyclone which developed over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean on the 21st January 2009, then moved eastward embedded in the strong westerly flow and experienced a notorious strengthening on the 23rd January. The storm moved into the Bay of Biscay and deepened further before hitting Northern Spain and Southwestern France with gusts of up to 198 km/h. Afterwards, it steered southeastwards across Southern France into Northern Italy and the Adriatic. "Klaus" was the most intense and damaging wind storm in the region in a decade, provoked more than 20 casualties and insured losses of several billion Euros. The evolution of "Klaus" is analysed using two standard cyclone detecting and tracking schemes: a) the vorticity maxima based algorithm originally developed by Murray and Simmonds [1991], adapted for Northern Hemisphere cyclone characteristics [Pinto et al. 2005]; and b) the pressure minima based algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region [Trigo et al. 1999; 2002] and later extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region [Trigo 2006]. Additionally, the synoptic and mesoscale features of the storm are analysed. The vorticity based method detects the storm earlier than the pressure minima one. Results show that both tracks exhibited similar features and positions throughout almost all of their lifecycles, with minor discrepancies being probably related to different ways of both methods handling the spatio-temporal evolution of multiple candidates for cyclonic centres. In its strengthening phase, "Klaus" presents deepening rates above 37 hPa/24h, a value that after geostrophically adjusted to the reference latitude of 60°N increases to 44 hPa/24h, implying an exceptional event with bomb characteristics. During maximum intensity change within 24 hours was 1.165hPa/(deglat)2. References: Murray RJ, Simmonds I (1991) Aust

Meteorology, Macrophysics, Microphysics, Microwaves, and Mesoscale Modeling of Mediterranean Mountain Storms: The M8 Laboratory

Science.gov (United States)

Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Eric A.

2002-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms can be accomplished by a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, from synoptic scale down through the mesoscale, the cloud macrophysical scale, and ultimately the cloud microphysical scale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. This involves intense convective development, stratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that affect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted in this study by three mountain storms producing damaging floods in northern Italy between 1992 and 2000, developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within a storm domain. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size disi:ributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within hazardous storm environments.

Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James E. Neumann

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam. Permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones are analyzed by combining sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with simulated storm surge levels for the 100-year event. Our analysis finds that sea level rise through 2050 could increase the effective frequency of the current 100-year storm surge, which is associated with a storm surge of roughly five meters, to once every 49 years. Approximately 10% of the Hanoi region’s GDP is vulnerable to permanent inundation due to sea level rise, and more than 40% is vulnerable to periodic storm surge damage consistent with the current 100-year storm. We conclude that coastal adaptation measures, such as a planned retreat from the sea, and construction of a more substantial seawall and dike system, are needed to respond to these threats.

Post-hurricane forest damage assessment using satellite remote sensing

Science.gov (United States)

W. Wang; J.J. Qu; X. Hao; Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf

2010-01-01

This study developed a rapid assessment algorithm for post-hurricane forest damage estimation using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements. The performance of five commonly used vegetation indices as post-hurricane forest damage indicators was investigated through statistical analysis. The Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) was...

Geomagnetic storms, super-storms, and their impacts on GPS-based navigation systems

Science.gov (United States)

Astafyeva, E.; Yasyukevich, Yu.; Maksikov, A.; Zhivetiev, I.

2014-07-01

Using data of GPS receivers located worldwide, we analyze the quality of GPS performance during four geomagnetic storms of different intensity: two super-storms and two intense storms. We show that during super-storms the density of GPS Losses-of-Lock (LoL) increases up to 0.25% at L1 frequency and up to 3% at L2 frequency, and up to 0.15% (at L1) and 1% (at L2) during less intense storms. Also, depending on the intensity of the storm time ionospheric disturbances, the total number of total electron content (TEC) slips can exceed from 4 to 40 times the quiet time level. Both GPS LoL and TEC slips occur during abrupt changes of SYM-H index of geomagnetic activity, i.e., during the main phase of geomagnetic storms and during development of ionospheric storms. The main contribution in the total number of GPS LoL was found to be done by GPS sites located at low and high latitudes, whereas the area of numerous TEC slips seemed to mostly correspond to the boundary of the auroral oval, i.e., region with intensive ionospheric irregularities. Our global maps of TEC slips show where the regions with intense irregularities of electron density occur during geomagnetic storms and will let us in future predict appearance of GPS errors for geomagnetically disturbed conditions.

Pump Damage in the Hanshin Earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toshiyuki Osada

2000-01-01

Full Text Available There was a severe earthquake in the southern area ofHyogo prefecture in Japan on January 17, 1995. In this paper the damage to pump facilities caused by the earthquake, based on field investigation results in the Hanshin (Osaka–Kobe area is reported. In particular a lot of damage was reported in the pumping facilities for sewage or drainage of storm sewage. This paper also presents recommendations for aseismic design of pump facilities based on the results of the survey.

Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

Assessment of Vegetation Variation on Primarily Creation Zones of the Dust Storms Around the Euphrates Using Remote Sensing Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jamil Amanollahi

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Recently, period frequency and effect domain of the dust storms that enter Iran from Iraq have increased. In this study, in addition to detecting the creation zones of the dust storms, the effect of vegetation cover variation on their creation was investigated using remote sensing. Moderate resolution image Spectroradiometer (MODIS and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM5 have been utilized to identify the primarily creation zones of the dust storms and to assess the vegetation cover variation, respectively. Vegetation cover variation was studied using Normalized Differences Vegetation Index (NDVI obtained from band 3 and band 4 of the Landsate satellite. The results showed that the surrounding area of the Euphrates in Syria, the desert in the vicinity of this river in Iraq, including the deserts of Alanbar Province, and the north deserts of Saudi Arabia are the primarily creation zones of the dust storms entering west and south west of Iran. The results of NDVI showed that excluding the deserts in the border of Syria and Iraq, the area with very weak vegetation cover have increased between 2.44% and 20.65% from 1991 to 2009. In the meanwhile, the retention pound surface areas in the south deserts of Syria as well as the deserts in its border with Iraq have decreased 6320 and 4397 hectares, respectively. As it can be concluded from the findings, one of the main environmental parameters initiating these dust storms is the decrease in the vegetation cover in their primarily creation zones.

Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

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Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

2017-10-01

Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

Vulnerability Assessment of Housing Damage in the Philippines Due to an Increase Increase in Typhoon Intensity

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Esteban, Miguel; Stromberg, Per; Gasparatos, Alexandros

2010-05-01

It is currently feared that the increase in surface sea temperature resulting from increasing level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could result in higher tropical cyclone intensity in the future. Although the vulnerability of infrastructure and economic systems have been studied for a number of developed countries, very little work has been done on developing countries. The present work first attempts to evaluate the vulnerability of different regions in the Philippines to the passage of tropical cyclones. To this effect a total of 22 typhoons and tropical storms that affected the Philippines were analysed for the period 2003-2008. The data used was collected by the National Disaster Coordinating Council of the Philippines, who issue "SitRep" NDCC Reports after each major storm. This agency provides damage data for each region, including number of casualties, affected people, damaged and destroyed houses, and losses in the infrastructure and agriculture. The likely economic effects of increased typhoon intensity by using a Monte Carlo Simulation that magnifies the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008 to simulate the economic damage by 2085. The methodology used is based on the work of Esteban et al. (2009), which in turn uses the results of Knutson and Tuleya (2004) for the estimation of the increase in tropical cyclone intensity in 2085. The results show that downtime could increase from a national 1% to 1.3% by 2050 if economic and population growth are taken into account (29 to 36bn USD, from a total GDP of 2,757bn USD by 2050). If these are ignored the time lost each year can be estimated to cost around 630m USD (PPP) for the control scenario, which could increase to between 766m or 945mm USD by the year 2085 for the two different scenarios considered. This indirect damage depends on the geographical location and is for example higher in some areas of the northern island of Luzon, while the island of Mindanao in the

Integrating Machine Learning into a Crowdsourced Model for Earthquake-Induced Damage Assessment

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Rebbapragada, Umaa; Oommen, Thomas

2011-01-01

On January 12th, 2010, a catastrophic 7.0M earthquake devastated the country of Haiti. In the aftermath of an earthquake, it is important to rapidly assess damaged areas in order to mobilize the appropriate resources. The Haiti damage assessment effort introduced a promising model that uses crowdsourcing to map damaged areas in freely available remotely-sensed data. This paper proposes the application of machine learning methods to improve this model. Specifically, we apply work on learning from multiple, imperfect experts to the assessment of volunteer reliability, and propose the use of image segmentation to automate the detection of damaged areas. We wrap both tasks in an active learning framework in order to shift volunteer effort from mapping a full catalog of images to the generation of high-quality training data. We hypothesize that the integration of machine learning into this model improves its reliability, maintains the speed of damage assessment, and allows the model to scale to higher data volumes.

Assessment of corrosion and fatigue damage to light water reactor metal containments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinha, U.P.; Shah, V.N.; Smith, S.K.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a generic procedure for estimating aging damage, evaluating structural integrity, and identifying mitigation activities for safe operation of boiling water reactor (BWR) Mark I metal containments and ice-condenser type pressurized water reactor (PWR) cylindrical metal containments. The mechanisms of concern that can cause aging damage to these two types of containments are corrosion and fatigue. Assessment of fatigue damage to bellows is also described. Assessment of corrosion and fatigue damage described in this paper include: containment design features that are relevant to aging assessment, several corrosion and fatigue mechanisms, inspection of corrosion and fatigue damage, and mitigation of damage caused by these mechanisms. In addition, synergistic interaction between corrosion and fatigue is considered. Possible actions for mitigating aging include enhanced inspection methods, maintenance activities based on operating experience, and supplementary surveillance programs. Field experience related to aging of metal containments is reviewed. Finally, conclusions and recommendations are presented

Treatment of Storm Fears Using Virtual Reality and Progressive Muscle Relaxation.

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Lima, Jessica; McCabe-Bennett, Hanna; Antony, Martin M

2018-03-01

The present study examined the efficacy of virtual reality (VR) exposure therapy for treating individuals with storm fears by comparing a one-session VR exposure treatment with a one-session progressive muscle relaxation (PMR) and psychoeducation session. It was predicted that there would be a reduction in storm-related fear post-treatment for individuals in both conditions, but that this reduction would be greater for those in the VR exposure condition. It was predicted that improvements would be maintained at 30-day follow-up only for those in the VR exposure condition. Thirty-six participants each received one of the two treatment conditions. Those in the PMR treatment group received approximately 30 minutes of PMR and approximately 15 minutes of psychoeducation regarding storms. Those in the VR treatment group received approximately 1 hour of VR exposure. Additionally, participants were asked to complete a pre-treatment and post-treatment 5-minute behavioural approach test to assess changes in storm fears. They were also asked to complete a measure assessing storm phobia. There was a significant interaction between treatment group and self-reported fear at post-treatment, such that fear decreased for both groups, although the reduction was stronger in the VR group. Results also showed that reductions in storm fear were maintained at 30-day follow-up for both groups. Although this study used a small non-clinical sample, these results offer preliminary support for the use of VR exposure therapy in the treatment of storm-related fear.

Does a more sophisticated storm erosion model improve probabilistic erosion estimates?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Callaghan, D.; Roelvink, D.

2013-01-01

The dependency between the accuracy/uncertainty of storm erosion exceedance estimates obtained via a probabilistic model and the level of sophistication of the structural function (storm erosion model) embedded in the probabilistic model is assessed via the application of Callaghan et al.'s (2008)

"Fair" Mathematics in Assessing Delictual Damages

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

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Adapting ecological risk valuation for natural resource damage assessment in water pollution.

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Chen, Shuzhen; Wu, Desheng

2018-07-01

Ecological risk assessment can address requirements of natural resource damage assessment by quantifying the magnitude of possible damages to the ecosystem. This paper investigates an approach to assess water damages from pollution incident on the basis of concentrations of contaminants. The baseline of water pollution is determined with not-to-exceed concentration of contaminants required by water quality standards. The values of damage cost to water quality are estimated through sewage treatment cost. To get a reliable estimate of treatment cost, DEA is employed to classify samples of sewage plants based on their efficiency of sewage treatment. And exponential fitting is adopted to determine the relation between treatment cost and the decrease of COCs. The range of damage costs is determined through the fitting curves respectively based on efficient and inefficient samples. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The observed clustering of damaging extratropical cyclones in Europe

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Cusack, Stephen

2016-04-01

The clustering of severe European windstorms on annual timescales has substantial impacts on the (re-)insurance industry. Our knowledge of the risk is limited by large uncertainties in estimates of clustering from typical historical storm data sets covering the past few decades. Eight storm data sets are gathered for analysis in this study in order to reduce these uncertainties. Six of the data sets contain more than 100 years of severe storm information to reduce sampling errors, and observational errors are reduced by the diversity of information sources and analysis methods between storm data sets. All storm severity measures used in this study reflect damage, to suit (re-)insurance applications. The shortest storm data set of 42 years provides indications of stronger clustering with severity, particularly for regions off the main storm track in central Europe and France. However, clustering estimates have very large sampling and observational errors, exemplified by large changes in estimates in central Europe upon removal of one stormy season, 1989/1990. The extended storm records place 1989/1990 into a much longer historical context to produce more robust estimates of clustering. All the extended storm data sets show increased clustering between more severe storms from return periods (RPs) of 0.5 years to the longest measured RPs of about 20 years. Further, they contain signs of stronger clustering off the main storm track, and weaker clustering for smaller-sized areas, though these signals are more uncertain as they are drawn from smaller data samples. These new ultra-long storm data sets provide new information on clustering to improve our management of this risk.

Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

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Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

2017-07-01

Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

Healthcare4VideoStorm: Making Smart Decisions Based on Storm Metrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Weishan; Duan, Pengcheng; Chen, Xiufeng; Lu, Qinghua

2016-04-23

Storm-based stream processing is widely used for real-time large-scale distributed processing. Knowing the run-time status and ensuring performance is critical to providing expected dependability for some applications, e.g., continuous video processing for security surveillance. The existing scheduling strategies' granularity is too coarse to have good performance, and mainly considers network resources without computing resources while scheduling. In this paper, we propose Healthcare4Storm, a framework that finds Storm insights based on Storm metrics to gain knowledge from the health status of an application, finally ending up with smart scheduling decisions. It takes into account both network and computing resources and conducts scheduling at a fine-grained level using tuples instead of topologies. The comprehensive evaluation shows that the proposed framework has good performance and can improve the dependability of the Storm-based applications.

Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

Science.gov (United States)

Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves

Development of VLF noise storm and its relation to dynamics of magnetosphere during geomagnetic storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fedyakina, N.I.; Khorosheva, O.V.

1989-01-01

Dependence between the development of geomagnetic storm and VLF noise storm is studied. Two conditions should be met for the development of noise storm in VLF-hiss (f ≅ 0.5-10 kHz): a) threshold intensity of electron fluxes with E e > 40 keV in plasma layers; b) the presence of substorms resulting to widening of electron belt and its collision with cold plasma of plasmasphere. The noise storm at the fixed longitude begins about midnight independently of the phase of magnetic storm; Noise storm duration is connected with geomagnetic storm intensity by direct linear relationship

Impact induced damage assessment by means of Lamb wave image processing

Science.gov (United States)

Kudela, Pawel; Radzienski, Maciej; Ostachowicz, Wieslaw

2018-03-01

The aim of this research is an analysis of full wavefield Lamb wave interaction with impact-induced damage at various impact energies in order to find out the limitation of the wavenumber adaptive image filtering method. In other words, the relation between impact energy and damage detectability will be shown. A numerical model based on the time domain spectral element method is used for modeling of Lamb wave propagation and interaction with barely visible impact damage in a carbon-epoxy laminate. Numerical studies are followed by experimental research on the same material with an impact damage induced by various energy and also a Teflon insert simulating delamination. Wavenumber adaptive image filtering and signal processing are used for damage visualization and assessment for both numerical and experimental full wavefield data. It is shown that it is possible to visualize and assess the impact damage location, size and to some extent severity by using the proposed technique.

Geomagnetic Storm Sudden Commencements

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Sudden Commencements (ssc) 1868 to present: STORM1 and STORM2 Lists: (Some text here is taken from the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy...

Vulnerability Assessment of Dust Storms in the United States under a Changing Climate Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Severe weather events, such as flooding, drought, forest fires, and dust storms can have a serious impact on human health. Dust storm events are not well predicted in the United States, however they are expected to become more frequent as global climate warms through the 21st cen...

Shoreline resilience to individual storms and storm clusters on a meso-macrotidal barred beach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Angnuureng, Donatus Bapentire; Almar, Rafael; Senechal, Nadia; Castelle, Bruno; Addo, Kwasi Appeaning; Marieu, Vincent; Ranasinghe, Roshanka

2017-01-01

This study investigates the impact of individual storms and storm clusters on shoreline recovery for the meso-to macrotidal, barred Biscarrosse beach in SW France, using 6 years of daily video observations. While the study area experienced 60 storms during the 6-year study period, only 36 storms

XBeach-G: a tool for predicting gravel barrier response to extreme storm conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Masselink, Gerd; Poate, Tim; McCall, Robert; Roelvink, Dano; Russell, Paul; Davidson, Mark

2014-05-01

Gravel beaches protect low-lying back-barrier regions from flooding during storm events and their importance to society is widely acknowledged. Unfortunately, breaching and extensive storm damage has occurred at many gravel sites and this is likely to increase as a result of sea-level rise and enhanced storminess due to climate change. Limited scientific guidance is currently available to provide beach managers with operational management tools to predict the response of gravel beaches to storms. The New Understanding and Prediction of Storm Impacts on Gravel beaches (NUPSIG) project aims to improve our understanding of storm impacts on gravel coastal environments and to develop a predictive capability by modelling these impacts. The NUPSIG project uses a 5-pronged approach to address its aim: (1) analyse hydrodynamic data collected during a proto-type laboratory experiment on a gravel beach; (2) collect hydrodynamic field data on a gravel beach under a range of conditions, including storm waves with wave heights up to 3 m; (3) measure swash dynamics and beach response on 10 gravel beaches during extreme wave conditions with wave heights in excess of 3 m; (4) use the data collected under 1-3 to develop and validate a numerical model to model hydrodynamics and morphological response of gravel beaches under storm conditions; and (5) develop a tool for end-users, based on the model formulated under (4), for predicting storm response of gravel beaches and barriers. The aim of this presentation is to present the key results of the NUPSIG project and introduce the end-user tool for predicting storm response on gravel beaches. The model is based on the numerical model XBeach, and different forcing scenarios (wave and tides), barrier configurations (dimensions) and sediment characteristics are easily uploaded for model simulations using a Graphics User Interface (GUI). The model can be used to determine the vulnerability of gravel barriers to storm events, but can also be

Watershed Evaluation and Habitat Response to Recent Storms : Annual Report for 1999.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rhodes, Jonathan J.; Huntington, Charles W.

2000-02-01

Large and powerful storm systems moved through the Pacific Northwest during the wet season of 1995--96, triggering flooding, mass erosion, and, alteration of salmon habitats in affected watersheds. This project study was initiated to assess whether watershed conditions are causing damage, triggered by storm events, to salmon habitat on public lands in the Snake River basin. The storms and flooding in 1995--96 provide a prime opportunity to examine whether habitat conditions are improving, because the effects of land management activities on streams and salmon habitat are often not fully expressed until triggered by storms and floods. To address these issues, they are studying the recent storm responses of watersheds and salmon habitat in systematically selected subbasins and watersheds within the Snake River system. The study watersheds include several in the Wenaha and Tucannon subbasins in Washington and Oregon, and the watersheds of Squaw Creek (roaded) and Weir Creek (unroaded) in the Lochsa River subbasin, Idaho. The study was designed to examine possible differences in the effects of the storms in broadly comparable watersheds with differing magnitudes or types of disturbance. Watershed response is examined by comparing storm response mechanisms, such as rates of mass failure, among watersheds with similar attributes, but different levels of land management. The response of salmon habitat conditions is being examined by comparing habitat conditions before and after the storms in a stream and among streams in watersheds with similar attributes but different levels of land management. If appropriate to the results, the study will identify priority measures for reducing the severity of storm responses in watersheds within the Snake River Basin with habitat for at-risk salmon. This annual report describes the attributes of the study watersheds and the criteria and methods used to select them. The report also describes the watershed and fish habitat attributes

Watershed evaluation and habitat response to recent storms; annual report for 1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhodes, Jonathan J.; Huntington, Charles W.

2000-01-01

Large and powerful storm systems moved through the Pacific Northwest during the wet season of 1995--96, triggering flooding, mass erosion, and, alteration of salmon habitats in affected watersheds. This project study was initiated to assess whether watershed conditions are causing damage, triggered by storm events, to salmon habitat on public lands in the Snake River basin. The storms and flooding in 1995--96 provide a prime opportunity to examine whether habitat conditions are improving, because the effects of land management activities on streams and salmon habitat are often not fully expressed until triggered by storms and floods. To address these issues, they are studying the recent storm responses of watersheds and salmon habitat in systematically selected subbasins and watersheds within the Snake River system. The study watersheds include several in the Wenaha and Tucannon subbasins in Washington and Oregon, and the watersheds of Squaw Creek (roaded) and Weir Creek (unroaded) in the Lochsa River subbasin, Idaho. The study was designed to examine possible differences in the effects of the storms in broadly comparable watersheds with differing magnitudes or types of disturbance. Watershed response is examined by comparing storm response mechanisms, such as rates of mass failure, among watersheds with similar attributes, but different levels of land management. The response of salmon habitat conditions is being examined by comparing habitat conditions before and after the storms in a stream and among streams in watersheds with similar attributes but different levels of land management. If appropriate to the results, the study will identify priority measures for reducing the severity of storm responses in watersheds within the Snake River Basin with habitat for at-risk salmon. This annual report describes the attributes of the study watersheds and the criteria and methods used to select them. The report also describes the watershed and fish habitat attributes

Development of Real-Time System for Urban Flooding by Surcharge of Storm Drainge and River Inundation

Science.gov (United States)

Shim, J. B.; Won, C. Y.; Park, J.; Lee, K.

2017-12-01

Korea experiences frequent flood disasters, which cause considerable economic losses and damages to towns and farms. Especially, a regional torrential storm is about 98.5mm/hr on September 21, 2010 in Seoul. The storm exceeds the capacity of urban drainage system of 75mm/hr, and 9,419 houses. How to monitor and control the urban flood disasters is an important issue in Korea. To mitigate the flood damage, a customizing system was developed to estimate urban floods and inundation using by integrating drainage system data and river information database which are managed by local governments and national agencies. In the case of Korean urban city, there are a lot of detention ponds and drainage pumping stations on end of drainage system and flow is going into river. The drainage pumping station, it is very important hydraulic facility for flood control between river and drainage system. So, it is possible to occur different patterns of flood inundation according to operation rule of drainage pumping station. A flood disaster is different damage as how to operate drainage pumping station and plan operation rule.

Mechanical properties of timber from wind damaged Norway spruce

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoffmeyer, Preben

2003-01-01

A storm may subject a tree to such bending stresses that extensive compression damage develops in the lee side. The tree may survive the wind load or it may be thrown. However, the damage is inherent and it may be of a magnitude to influence the mechanical properties of boards sawn from the stem....... The paper reports on a investigation of the relation between degree of damage and mechanical proper-ties of sawn timber from wind damaged Norway spruce. The project included about 250 bolts from wind damaged trees. The majority of bolts were cut to deliver a full-diameter plank containing the pith...

Swashed away? Storm impacts on sandy beach macrofaunal communities

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Linda; Nel, Ronel; Smale, Malcolm; Schoeman, David

2011-09-01

Storms can have a large impact on sandy shores, with powerful waves eroding large volumes of sand off the beach. Resulting damage to the physical environment has been well-studied but the ecological implications of these natural phenomena are less known. Since climate change predictions suggest an increase in storminess in the near future, understanding these ecological implications is vital if sandy shores are to be proactively managed for resilience. Here, we report on an opportunistic experiment that tests the a priori expectation that storms impact beach macrofaunal communities by modifying natural patterns of beach morphodynamics. Two sites at Sardinia Bay, South Africa, were sampled for macrofauna and physical descriptors following standard sampling methods. This sampling took place five times at three- to four-month intervals between April 2008 and August 2009. The second and last sampling events were undertaken after unusually large storms, the first of which was sufficiently large to transform one site from a sandy beach into a mixed shore for the first time in living memory. A range of univariate (linear mixed-effects models) and multivariate (e.g. non-metric multidimensional scaling, PERMANOVA) methods were employed to describe trends in the time series, and to explore the likelihood of possible explanatory mechanisms. Macrofaunal communities at the dune-backed beach (Site 2) withstood the effects of the first storm but were altered significantly by the second storm. In contrast, macrofauna communities at Site 1, where the supralittoral had been anthropogenically modified so that exchange of sediments with the beach was limited, were strongly affected by the first storm and showed little recovery over the study period. In line with predictions from ecological theory, beach morphodynamics was found to be a strong driver of temporal patterns in the macrofaunal community structure, with the storm events also identified as a significant factor, likely

Structurally integrated fiber optic damage assessment system for composite materials.

Science.gov (United States)

Measures, R M; Glossop, N D; Lymer, J; Leblanc, M; West, J; Dubois, S; Tsaw, W; Tennyson, R C

1989-07-01

Progress toward the development of a fiber optic damage assessment system for composite materials is reported. This system, based on the fracture of embedded optical fibers, has been characterized with respect to the orientation and location of the optical fibers in the composite. Together with a special treatment, these parameters have been tailored to yield a system capable of detecting the threshold of damage for various impacted Kevlar/epoxy panels. The technique has been extended to measure the growth of a damage region which could arise from either impact, manufacturing flaws, or static overloading. The mechanism of optical fiber fracture has also been investigated. In addition, the influence of embedded optical fibers on the tensile and compressive strength of the composite material has been studied. Image enhanced backlighting has been shown to be a powerful and convenient method of assessing internal damage to translucent composite materials.

Assessment of Forest Damage in Croatia using Landsat-8 OLI Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anita Simic Milas

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Rapid assessments of forest damage caused by natural disasters such as ice-break, wind, flooding, hurricane, or forest fires are necessary for mitigation and forest management. Forest damage directly impacts carbon uptake and biogeochemical cycles, and thus, has an impact on climate change. It intensifies erosion and flooding, and influences socio-economic well-being of population. Quantification of forest cover change represents a challenge for the scientific community as damaged areas are often in the mountainous and remote regions. Forested area in the western Croatia was considerably damaged by ice-breaking and flooding in 2014. Satellite remote sensing technology has opened up new possibilities for detecting and quantifying forest damage. Several remote sensing tools are available for rapid assessment of forest damage. These include aerial photographic interpretation, and airborne and satellite imagery. This study evaluates the capability of Landsat-8 optical data and a vegetation index for mapping forest damage in Croatia that occurred during the winter of 2014. Materials and Methods: The change detection analysis in this study was based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI difference approach, where pre- and post- event Landsat-8 images were employed in the ENVI image change workflow. The validation was done by comparing the satellite-generated change detection map with the ground truth data based on field observations and spatial data of forest management units and plans. Results: The overall damage assessment from this study suggests that the total damaged area covers 45,265.32 ha of forest. It is 19.20% less than estimated by Vuletić et al. [3] who found that 56,021.86 ha of forest were affected. Most damage was observed in the mixed, broadleaf and coniferous forest. The change errors of commission and omission were calculated to be 35.73% and 31.60%, respectively. Conclusions: Landsat-8 optical

Development of seismic damage assessment system for nuclear power plant structures in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hyun, Chang-Hun; Lee, Sung-Kyu; Choi, Kang-Ryoung; Koh, Hyun-Moo; Cho, HoHyun

2003-01-01

A seismic damage assessment system that analyses in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and the damage level of power plant structures has been developed. The system consists of three parts: a 3-D inelastic seismic analysis, a damage assessment using a damage index based on the previous 3-D analysis, and a 3-D graphic representation. PSC containment structures are modelled by finite shell elements using layered method and analysis is performed by means of time history inelastic seismic analysis method, which takes into account material nonlinearities. HHT-α, one kind of direct integration method, is adopted for the seismic analysis. Two damage indices at finite element and structural levels are applied for the seismic damage assessment. 3-D graphical representation of dynamic responses and damage index expedites procedure for evaluating the damage level. The developed system is now being installed at the Earthquake Monitoring Center of KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) to support site inspections after an earthquake occurrence, and decisions about effective emergency measures, repair and operations of the plant. (author)

Using Bayesian Network as a tool for coastal storm flood impact prediction at Varna Bay (Bulgaria, Western Black Sea)

Science.gov (United States)

Valchev, Nikolay; Eftimova, Petya; Andreeva, Nataliya; Prodanov, Bogdan

2017-04-01

Coastal zone is among the fastest evolving areas worldwide. Ever increasing population inhabiting coastal settlements develops often conflicting economic and societal activities. The existing imbalance between the expansion of these activities, on one hand, and the potential to accommodate them in a sustainable manner, on the other, becomes a critical problem. Concurrently, coasts are affected by various hydro-meteorological phenomena such as storm surges, heavy seas, strong winds and flash floods, which intensities and occurrence frequency is likely to increase due to the climate change. This implies elaboration of tools capable of quick prediction of impact of those phenomena on the coast and providing solutions in terms of disaster risk reduction measures. One such tool is Bayesian network. Proposed paper describes the set-up of such network for Varna Bay (Bulgaria, Western Black Sea). It relates near-shore storm conditions to their onshore flood potential and ultimately to relevant impact as relative damage on coastal and manmade environment. Methodology for set-up and training of the Bayesian network was developed within RISC-KIT project (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT). Proposed BN reflects the interaction between boundary conditions, receptors, hazard, and consequences. Storm boundary conditions - maximum significant wave height and peak surge level, were determined on the basis of their historical and projected occurrence. The only hazard considered in this study is flooding characterized by maximum inundation depth. BN was trained with synthetic events created by combining estimated boundary conditions. Flood impact was modeled with the process-based morphodynamical model XBeach. Restaurants, sport and leisure facilities, administrative buildings, and car parks were introduced in the network as receptors. Consequences (impact) are estimated in terms of relative damage caused by given inundation depth. National depth-damage

Implementation of the natural resource damage assessment rule

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-11-01

Regulations have been promulgated by the Department of Interior (DOI) which provide an administrative process whereby natural resource trustees may establish the type and extent of injury and evaluate the damages to natural resources. These regulations provide an optional mechanism for Natural Resource Damage Assessments (NRDAs), with four major components. A workshop was held to develop recommendations for DOE-OR regarding implementation of the DOI NRDA regulations at the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). The attendants were divided into three working groups to consider (1) administrative/legal requirements, (2) ecological assessments, and (3) the NRDA/economic evaluation process. This report supplies an overview of the DOI NRDA regulations as well as summaries of the consensus of each of the three working groups

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

Science.gov (United States)

Barnard, Patrick; Maarten van Ormondt,; Erikson, Li H.; Jodi Eshleman,; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Peter Ruggiero,; Peter Adams,; Foxgrover, Amy C.

2014-01-01

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.

Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2016-12-01

Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

Washington's marine oil spill compensation schedule - simplified resource damage assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geselbracht, L.; Logan, R.

1993-01-01

The Washington State Preassessment Screening and Oil Spill Compensation Schedule Rule (Chapter 173-183 Washington Administrative Code), which simplifies natural resource damage assessment for many oil spill cases, became effective in May 1992. The approach described in the rule incorporates a number of preconstructed rankings that rate environmental sensitivity and the propensity of spilled oil to cause environmental harm. The rule also provides guidance regarding how damages calculated under the schedule should be reduced to take into account actions taken by the responsible party that reduce environmental injury. To apply the compensation schedule to marine estuarine spills, the resource trustees need only collect a limited amount of information such as type of product spilled, number of gallons spilled, compensation schedule subregions the spill entered, season of greatest spill impact, percent coverage of habitats affected by the spill, and actions taken by the responsible party. The result of adding a simplified tool to the existing assortment of damage assessment approaches is that resource trustees will now be able to assess damages for most oil spill cases and shift more effort than was possible in the past to resource restoration

Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

Science.gov (United States)

Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.

2015-08-01

Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

In the Eye of the Storm: A Participatory Course on Coastal Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Scott

2013-01-01

Storm disasters are amplified in the coastal environment due to population pressures and the power of the sea. The upper-division/graduate university course "Coastal Storms" was designed to equip future practitioners with the skills necessary to understand, respond to, and mitigate for these natural disasters. To accomplish this, "Coastal Storms"…

Hurricane storm surge and amphibian communities in coastal wetlands of northwestern Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Gunzburger, M.S.; Hughes, W.B.; Barichivich, W.J.; Staiger, J.S.

2010-01-01

Isolated wetlands in the Southeastern United States are dynamic habitats subject to fluctuating environmental conditions. Wetlands located near marine environments are subject to alterations in water chemistry due to storm surge during hurricanes. The objective of our study was to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on wetland amphibian communities. Thirty-two wetlands in northwestern Florida were sampled over a 45-month period to assess amphibian species richness and water chemistry. During this study, seven wetlands were overwashed by storm surge from Hurricane Dennis which made landfall 10 July 2005 in the Florida panhandle. This event allowed us to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on water chemistry and amphibian communities of the wetlands. Specific conductance across all wetlands was low pre-storm (marine habitats are resistant to the effects of storm surge overwash. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Nippon Storm Study design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takashi Kurita

2012-10-01

Full Text Available An understanding of the clinical aspects of electrical storm (E-storms in patients with implantable cardiac shock devices (ICSDs: ICDs or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator [CRT-D] may provide important information for clinical management of patients with ICSDs. The Nippon Storm Study was organized by the Japanese Heart Rhythm Society (JHRS and Japanese Society of Electrocardiology and was designed to prospectively collect a variety of data from patients with ICSDs, with a focus on the incidence of E-storms and clinical conditions for the occurrence of an E-storm. Forty main ICSD centers in Japan are participating in the present study. From 2002, the JHRS began to collect ICSD patient data using website registration (termed Japanese cardiac defibrillator therapy registration, or JCDTR. This investigation aims to collect data on and investigate the general parameters of patients with ICSDs, such as clinical backgrounds of the patients, purposes of implantation, complications during the implantation procedure, and incidence of appropriate and inappropriate therapies from the ICSD. The Nippon Storm Study was planned as a sub-study of the JCDTR with focus on E-storms. We aim to achieve registration of more than 1000 ICSD patients and complete follow-up data collection, with the assumption of a 5–10% incidence of E-storms during the 2-year follow-up.

UAV-based urban structural damage assessment using object-based image analysis and semantic reasoning

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez Galarreta, J.; Kerle, N.; Gerke, M.

2015-06-01

Structural damage assessment is critical after disasters but remains a challenge. Many studies have explored the potential of remote sensing data, but limitations of vertical data persist. Oblique imagery has been identified as more useful, though the multi-angle imagery also adds a new dimension of complexity. This paper addresses damage assessment based on multi-perspective, overlapping, very high resolution oblique images obtained with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). 3-D point-cloud assessment for the entire building is combined with detailed object-based image analysis (OBIA) of façades and roofs. This research focuses not on automatic damage assessment, but on creating a methodology that supports the often ambiguous classification of intermediate damage levels, aiming at producing comprehensive per-building damage scores. We identify completely damaged structures in the 3-D point cloud, and for all other cases provide the OBIA-based damage indicators to be used as auxiliary information by damage analysts. The results demonstrate the usability of the 3-D point-cloud data to identify major damage features. Also the UAV-derived and OBIA-processed oblique images are shown to be a suitable basis for the identification of detailed damage features on façades and roofs. Finally, we also demonstrate the possibility of aggregating the multi-perspective damage information at building level.

Geomagnetic storm under laboratory conditions: randomized experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Gurfinkel, Yu I.; Vasin, A. L.; Pishchalnikov, R. Yu; Sarimov, R. M.; Sasonko, M. L.; Matveeva, T. A.

2017-10-01

The influence of the previously recorded geomagnetic storm (GS) on human cardiovascular system and microcirculation has been studied under laboratory conditions. Healthy volunteers in lying position were exposed under two artificially created conditions: quiet (Q) and storm (S). The Q regime playbacks a noise-free magnetic field (MF) which is closed to the natural geomagnetic conditions on Moscow's latitude. The S regime playbacks the initially recorded 6-h geomagnetic storm which is repeated four times sequentially. The cardiovascular response to the GS impact was assessed by measuring capillary blood velocity (CBV) and blood pressure (BP) and by the analysis of the 24-h ECG recording. A storm-to-quiet ratio for the cardio intervals (CI) and the heart rate variability (HRV) was introduced in order to reveal the average over group significant differences of HRV. An individual sensitivity to the GS was estimated using the autocorrelation function analysis of the high-frequency (HF) part of the CI spectrum. The autocorrelation analysis allowed for detection a group of subjects of study which autocorrelation functions (ACF) react differently in the Q and S regimes of exposure.

Geomagnetic storm under laboratory conditions: randomized experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Gurfinkel, Yu I; Vasin, A L; Pishchalnikov, R Yu; Sarimov, R M; Sasonko, M L; Matveeva, T A

2018-04-01

The influence of the previously recorded geomagnetic storm (GS) on human cardiovascular system and microcirculation has been studied under laboratory conditions. Healthy volunteers in lying position were exposed under two artificially created conditions: quiet (Q) and storm (S). The Q regime playbacks a noise-free magnetic field (MF) which is closed to the natural geomagnetic conditions on Moscow's latitude. The S regime playbacks the initially recorded 6-h geomagnetic storm which is repeated four times sequentially. The cardiovascular response to the GS impact was assessed by measuring capillary blood velocity (CBV) and blood pressure (BP) and by the analysis of the 24-h ECG recording. A storm-to-quiet ratio for the cardio intervals (CI) and the heart rate variability (HRV) was introduced in order to reveal the average over group significant differences of HRV. An individual sensitivity to the GS was estimated using the autocorrelation function analysis of the high-frequency (HF) part of the CI spectrum. The autocorrelation analysis allowed for detection a group of subjects of study which autocorrelation functions (ACF) react differently in the Q and S regimes of exposure.

Condition Assessment for Wastewater Pipes: Method for Assessing Cracking and Surface Damage of Concrete Pipes

OpenAIRE

Hauge, Petter

2013-01-01

The objective of the Master Thesis has been to provide an improved method for condition assessment, which will give a better correlation between Condition class and actual Condition of concrete pipes with cracking and/or surface damages. Additionally improvement of the characterization of cracking (SR) and surface (KO) damages was a sub goal.Based on the findings described in my Thesis and my Specialization Project (Hauge 2012), I recommend that the Norwegian condition assessment method based...

Natural resource damage assessment -- Trustee and defendant perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McHugh, M.; Trimmier, R. Jr.

1995-01-01

The goal of the NRD process is restoration: restoring injured resources and the services they provide to a level that will compensate the public for the losses associated with injuries. While restoration, the final step in the cleanup process, has only recently been pursued, experience dictates that it is more effective and efficient for cleanup agencies. Industry and natural resource trustees to address NRD by integrating it into the cleanup process in a cooperative and coordinated manner. Early integration reduces transaction costs and liability by: (1) enabling the collection of NRD information by field personnel already conducting RI work; (2) promoting the selection of remedial alternatives that are protective of resources; and (3) creating opportunities to build restoration directly into the remedy. The damage assessment regulations provide an objective template to guide this process. Integration thus facilitates timely restoration, thereby halting the accrual of further damages and reducing the potential for time consuming and costly litigation. Delays in settlement and restoration are more likely when trustees are not made part of the cleanup process. Particularly under CERCLA, reliance on unproven science for injury determination and unreliable economics for damage assessment results in inflated values, prolonged litigation, delayed or vacuous remedial action and high transaction costs. Under OPA, where oil spills require immediate and effective response action, cooperation between PRPs and Trustees is more likely, but even there, the post-response assessment of NRD is unlikely to be cooperative for the same reason CERCLA assessments tend not to be

POTENTIAL OF MULTI-TEMPORAL OBLIQUE AIRBORNE IMAGERY FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Vetrivel

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Quick post-disaster actions demand automated, rapid and detailed building damage assessment. Among the available technologies, post-event oblique airborne images have already shown their potential for this task. However, existing methods usually compensate the lack of pre-event information with aprioristic assumptions of building shapes and textures that can lead to uncertainties and misdetections. However, oblique images have been already captured over many cities of the world, and the exploitation of pre- and post-event data as inputs to damage assessment is readily feasible in urban areas. In this paper, we investigate the potential of multi-temporal oblique imagery for detailed damage assessment focusing on two methodologies: the first method aims at detecting severe structural damages related to geometrical deformation by combining the complementary information provided by photogrammetric point clouds and oblique images. The developed method detected 87% of damaged elements. The failed detections are due to varying noise levels within the point cloud which hindered the recognition of some structural elements. We observed, in general that the façade regions are very noisy in point clouds. To address this, we propose our second method which aims to detect damages to building façades using the oriented oblique images. The results show that the proposed methodology can effectively differentiate among the three proposed categories: collapsed/highly damaged, lower levels of damage and undamaged buildings, using a computationally light-weight approach. We describe the implementations of the above mentioned methods in detail and present the promising results achieved using multi-temporal oblique imagery over the city of L’Aquila (Italy.

Biological effects of geomagnetic storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chibisov, S.M.; Breus, T.K.; Levitin, A.E.; Drogova, G.M.; AN SSSR, Moscow; AN SSSR, Moscow

1995-01-01

Six physiological parameters of cardio-vascular system of rabbits and ultrastructure of cardiomyocytes were investigated during two planetary geomagnetic storms. At the initial and main phase of the storm the normal circadian structure in each cardiovascular parameter was lost. The disynchronozis was growing together with the storm and abrupt drop of cardia activity was observed during the main phase of storm. The main phase of storm followed by the destruction and degradation of cardiomyocytes. Parameters of cardia activity became substantially synchronized and characterized by circadian rhythm structure while the amplitude of deviations was still significant at the recovery stage of geomagnetic storm. 3 refs.; 7 figs

Stochastic output error vibration-based damage detection and assessment in structures under earthquake excitation

Science.gov (United States)

Sakellariou, J. S.; Fassois, S. D.

2006-11-01

A stochastic output error (OE) vibration-based methodology for damage detection and assessment (localization and quantification) in structures under earthquake excitation is introduced. The methodology is intended for assessing the state of a structure following potential damage occurrence by exploiting vibration signal measurements produced by low-level earthquake excitations. It is based upon (a) stochastic OE model identification, (b) statistical hypothesis testing procedures for damage detection, and (c) a geometric method (GM) for damage assessment. The methodology's advantages include the effective use of the non-stationary and limited duration earthquake excitation, the handling of stochastic uncertainties, the tackling of the damage localization and quantification subproblems, the use of "small" size, simple and partial (in both the spatial and frequency bandwidth senses) identified OE-type models, and the use of a minimal number of measured vibration signals. Its feasibility and effectiveness are assessed via Monte Carlo experiments employing a simple simulation model of a 6 storey building. It is demonstrated that damage levels of 5% and 20% reduction in a storey's stiffness characteristics may be properly detected and assessed using noise-corrupted vibration signals.

[Electrical storm in patients with prophylactic defibrillator implantation].

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Mañero, Moisés; González-Cambeiro, Cristina; Moreno-Arribas, Jose; Expósito-García, Víctor; Sánchez-Gómez, Juan Miguel; González-Torres, Luis; Arce-León, Álvaro; Arguedas-Jiménez, Hugo; Gaztañaga, Larraitz; Salvador-Montañés, Oscar; Iglesias-Bravo, Jose Antonio; Huerta, Ana Andrés La; Fernández-Armenta, Juan; Arias, Miguel Ángel; Martínez-Sande, Luis

2016-01-01

Little is known about the prevalence of electrical storm, baseline characteristics and mortality implications of patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillator in primary prevention versus those patients without electrical storm. We sought to assess the prevalence, baseline risk profile and survival significance of electrical storm in patients with implantable defibrillator for primary prevention. Retrospective multicenter study performed in 15 Spanish hospitals. Consecutives patients referred for desfibrillator implantation, with or without left ventricular lead (at least those performed in 2010 and 2011), were included. Over all 1,174 patients, 34 (2,9%) presented an electrical storm, mainly due to ventricular tachycardia (82.4%). There were no significant baseline differences between groups, with similar punctuation in the mortality risk scores (SHOCKED, MADIT and FADES). A clear trigger was identified in 47% of the events. During the study period (38±21 months), long-term total mortality (58.8% versus 14.4%, pstorm patients. Rate of inappropriate desfibrillator intervention was also higher (14.7 versus 8.6%, pstorm was 2.9%. There were no baseline differences in the cardiovascular risk profile versus those without electrical storm. However, all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality was increased in these patients versus control desfibrillator patients without electrical storm, as was the rate of inappropriate desfibrillator intervention. Copyright © 2015 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic approach for assessing the vulnerability of transportation infrastructure to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge.

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, E. M.; Kirshen, P. H.; Bosma, K.; Watson, C.; Miller, S.; McArthur, K.

2015-12-01

There now exists a plethora of information attesting to the reality of our changing climate and its impacts on both human and natural systems. There also exists a growing literature linking climate change impacts and transportation infrastructure (highways, bridges, tunnels, railway, shipping ports, etc.) which largely agrees that the nation's transportation systems are vulnerable. To assess this vulnerability along the coast, flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge has most commonly been evaluated by simply increasing the water surface elevation and then estimating flood depth by comparing the new water surface elevation with the topographic elevations of the land surface. While this rudimentary "bathtub" approach may provide a first order identification of potential areas of vulnerability, accurate assessment requires a high resolution, physically-based hydrodynamic model that can simulate inundation due to the combined effects of sea level rise, storm surge, tides and wave action for site-specific locations. Furthermore, neither the "bathtub" approach nor other scenario-based approaches can quantify the probability of flooding due to these impacts. We developed a high resolution coupled ocean circulation-wave model (ADCIRC/SWAN) that utilizes a Monte Carlo approach for predicting the depths and associated exceedance probabilities of flooding due to both tropical (hurricanes) and extra-tropical storms under current and future climate conditions. This required the development of an entirely new database of meteorological forcing (e.g. pressure, wind speed, etc.) for historical Nor'easters in the North Atlantic basin. Flooding due to hurricanes and Nor'easters was simulated separately and then composite flood probability distributions were developed. Model results were used to assess the vulnerability of the Central Artery/Tunnel system in Boston, Massachusetts to coastal flooding now and in the future. Local and regional adaptation strategies were

Representation of Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in climate models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greeves, C.Z.; Pope, V.D.; Stratton, R.A.; Martin, G.M. [Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter (United Kingdom)

2007-06-15

Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are a key element of the winter weather and climate at mid-latitudes. Before projections of climate change are made for these regions, it is necessary to be sure that climate models are able to reproduce the main features of observed storm tracks. The simulated storm tracks are assessed for a variety of Hadley Centre models and are shown to be well modelled on the whole. The atmosphere-only model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core produces generally more realistic storm tracks than the model with the Eulerian dynamical core, provided the horizontal resolution is high enough. The two models respond in different ways to changes in horizontal resolution: the model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core has much reduced frequency and strength of cyclonic features at lower resolution due to reduced transient eddy kinetic energy. The model with Eulerian dynamical core displays much smaller changes in frequency and strength of features with changes in horizontal resolution, but the location of the storm tracks as well as secondary development are sensitive to resolution. Coupling the atmosphere-only model (with semi-Lagrangian dynamical core) to an ocean model seems to affect the storm tracks largely via errors in the tropical representation. For instance a cold SST bias in the Pacific and a lack of ENSO variability lead to large changes in the Pacific storm track. Extratropical SST biases appear to have a more localised effect on the storm tracks. (orig.)

Life assessment of aerospace structure using damage tolerance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anwar, W.; Khan, M.Z.

2007-01-01

Damage Tolerant Design plays a major role in the Aerospace Industry not only in the design of new structures and components but also their ongoing maintenance and support. Damage Tolerance Analysis (DT A) is a procedure that defines whether a crack can be sustained safely during the projected service life of the structure. Using this methodology, service life of an aerospace structure can be determined and may be extended by applying proper tooling and machining for repair. In this research the effect of damage increment on the convergence of the residual strength is investigated for a wing component of an aircraft. The stresses redistribution with damage growth is discussed. Simulation using Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) laws are performed, those results the damage scenarios to be assessed in the real structural geometry and loading environment, using Stress Intensity Factors, Critical Crack Sizes and the Residual Strength of that component. Fatigue crack growth behaviour of the component is also investigated experimentally. The fatigue experiments were performed under constant stress amplitude loadings and constant amplitude loading with single overload. It has been observed that the computed fatigue curves fit well with the experimental results. (author)

"Fair" Mathematics in Assessing Delictual Damages | Steynberg ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the ...

Radial growth of hardwoods following the 1998 ice storm in New Hampshire and Maine

Science.gov (United States)

Kevin T. Smith; Walter C. Shortle

2003-01-01

Ice storms and resulting injury to tree crowns occur frequently in North America. Reaction of land managers to injury caused by the regional ice storm of January 1998 had the potential to accelerate the harvesting of northern hardwoods due to concern about the future loss of wood production by injured trees. To assess the effect of this storm on radial stem growth,...

Nondestructive Damage Assessment of Composite Structures Based on Wavelet Analysis of Modal Curvatures: State-of-the-Art Review and Description of Wavelet-Based Damage Assessment Benchmark

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrzej Katunin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The application of composite structures as elements of machines and vehicles working under various operational conditions causes degradation and occurrence of damage. Considering that composites are often used for responsible elements, for example, parts of aircrafts and other vehicles, it is extremely important to maintain them properly and detect, localize, and identify the damage occurring during their operation in possible early stage of its development. From a great variety of nondestructive testing methods developed to date, the vibration-based methods seem to be ones of the least expensive and simultaneously effective with appropriate processing of measurement data. Over the last decades a great popularity of vibration-based structural testing has been gained by wavelet analysis due to its high sensitivity to a damage. This paper presents an overview of results of numerous researchers working in the area of vibration-based damage assessment supported by the wavelet analysis and the detailed description of the Wavelet-based Structural Damage Assessment (WavStructDamAs Benchmark, which summarizes the author’s 5-year research in this area. The benchmark covers example problems of damage identification in various composite structures with various damage types using numerous wavelet transforms and supporting tools. The benchmark is openly available and allows performing the analysis on the example problems as well as on its own problems using available analysis tools.

Ex post damage assessment: an Italian experience

Science.gov (United States)

Molinari, D.; Menoni, S.; Aronica, G. T.; Ballio, F.; Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Minucci, G.

2014-04-01

In recent years, awareness of a need for more effective disaster data collection, storage, and sharing of analyses has developed in many parts of the world. In line with this advance, Italian local authorities have expressed the need for enhanced methods and procedures for post-event damage assessment in order to obtain data that can serve numerous purposes: to create a reliable and consistent database on the basis of which damage models can be defined or validated; and to supply a comprehensive scenario of flooding impacts according to which priorities can be identified during the emergency and recovery phase, and the compensation due to citizens from insurers or local authorities can be established. This paper studies this context, and describes ongoing activities in the Umbria and Sicily regions of Italy intended to identifying new tools and procedures for flood damage data surveys and storage in the aftermath of floods. In the first part of the paper, the current procedures for data gathering in Italy are analysed. The analysis shows that the available knowledge does not enable the definition or validation of damage curves, as information is poor, fragmented, and inconsistent. A new procedure for data collection and storage is therefore proposed. The entire analysis was carried out at a local level for the residential and commercial sectors only. The objective of the next steps for the research in the short term will be (i) to extend the procedure to other types of damage, and (ii) to make the procedure operational with the Italian Civil Protection system. The long-term aim is to develop specific depth-damage curves for Italian contexts.

Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France.

Science.gov (United States)

Mornet, Alexandre; Opitz, Thomas; Luzi, Michel; Loisel, Stéphane

2015-11-01

For insurance companies, wind storms represent a main source of volatility, leading to potentially huge aggregated claim amounts. In this article, we compare different constructions of a storm index allowing us to assess the economic impact of storms on an insurance portfolio by exploiting information from historical wind speed data. Contrary to historical insurance portfolio data, meteorological variables show fewer nonstationarities between years and are easily available with long observation records; hence, they represent a valuable source of additional information for insurers if the relation between observations of claims and wind speeds can be revealed. Since standard correlation measures between raw wind speeds and insurance claims are weak, a storm index focusing on high wind speeds can afford better information. A storm index approach has been applied to yearly aggregated claim amounts in Germany with promising results. Using historical meteorological and insurance data, we assess the consistency of the proposed index constructions with respect to various parameters and weights. Moreover, we are able to place the major insurance events since 1998 on a broader horizon beyond 40 years. Our approach provides a meteorological justification for calculating the return periods of extreme-storm-related insurance events whose magnitude has rarely been reached. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessment of the Impact of Super Storm Sandy on Coral Reefs of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

appeared to be completely, or even severely, damaged. There was some uniformity in the relatively minimal amount of damage. Survey results showed... results . Given recent studies showing increased stressors such as nutrient loads and higher sea surface temperatures, a long-term health-status program...ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS .............................................................................. 14 3. RESULTS

IRI STORM validation over Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Haralambous, Haris; Vryonides, Photos; Demetrescu, Crişan; Dobrică, Venera; Maris, Georgeta; Ionescu, Diana

2014-05-01

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model includes an empirical Storm-Time Ionospheric Correction Model (STORM) extension to account for storm-time changes of the F layer peak electron density (NmF2) during increased geomagnetic activity. This model extension is driven by past history values of the geomagnetic index ap (The magnetic index applied is the integral of ap over the previous 33 hours with a weighting function deduced from physically based modeling) and it adjusts the quiet-time F layer peak electron density (NmF2) to account for storm-time changes in the ionosphere. In this investigation manually scaled hourly values of NmF2 measured during the main and recovery phases of selected storms for the maximum solar activity period of the current solar cycle are compared with the predicted IRI-2012 NmF2 over European ionospheric stations using the STORM model option. Based on the comparison a subsequent performance evaluation of the STORM option during this period is quantified.

Impacts of Storm Surge Mitigation Strategies on Aboveground Storage Tank Chemical Spill Transport

Science.gov (United States)

Do, C.; Bass, B. J.; Bernier, C.; Samii, A.; Dawson, C.; Bedient, P. B.

2017-12-01

The Houston Ship Channel (HSC), located in the hurricane-prone Houston-Galveston region of the upper Texas Coast, is one of the busiest waterways in the United States and is home to one of the largest petrochemical complexes in the world. Due to the proximity of the HSC to Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, chemical spills resulting from storm surge damage to aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) pose serious threats to the environment, residential communities, and national/international markets whose activities in the HSC generate billions of dollars annually. In an effort to develop a comprehensive storm surge mitigation strategy for Galveston Bay and its constituents, Rice University's Severe Storm Prediction, Education, and Evacuation from Disasters Center proposed two structural storm surge mitigation concepts, the Mid Bay Structure (MBS) and the Lower Bay Structure (LBS) as components of the Houston-Galveston Area Protection System (H-GAPS) project. The MBS consists of levees along the HSC and a navigational gate across the channel, and the LBS consists of a navigation gate and environmental gates across Bolivar Road. The impacts of these two barrier systems on the fate of AST chemical spills in the HSC have previously been unknown. This study applies the coupled 2D SWAN+ADCIRC model to simulate hurricane storm surge circulation within the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay due to a synthetic storm which results in approximately 250-year surge levels in Galveston Bay. The SWAN+ADCIRC model is run using high-resolution computational meshes that incorporate the MBS and LBS scenarios, separately. The resulting wind and water velocities are then fed into a Lagrangian particle transport model to simulate the spill trajectories of the ASTs most likely to fail during the 250-year proxy storm. Results from this study illustrate how each storm surge mitigation strategy impacts the transport of chemical spills (modeled as Lagrangian particles) during storm surge as

Fatigue damage assessment under multi-axial non-proportional cyclic loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohta, Keshav; Gupta, Suneel K.; Jadhav, P.A.; Bhasin, V.; Vijayan, P.K.

2016-01-01

Detailed fatigue analysis is carried out for class I Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) components to rule out the fatigue failure during their design lifetime. ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel code Section III NB, has provided two schemes for fatigue assessment, one for fixed principal directions (proportional) loading and the other for varying principal directions (non-proportional) loading conditions. Recent literature on multi-axial fatigue tests has revealed lower fatigue lives under nonproportional loading conditions. In an attempt to understand the loading parameter lowering the fatigue life, a finite element based study has been carried out. Here, fatigue damage in a tube has been correlated with the applied axial to shear strain ratio and phase difference between them. The FE analysis has used Chaboche nonlinear kinematic hardening rule to model material's realistic cyclic plastic deformation behavior. The ASME alternating stress intensity (based on linear elastic FEA) and the plastic strain energy dissipation (based on elastic-plastic FEA) have been considered to assess the per cycle fatigue damage. The study has revealed that ASME criteria predicts lower alternating stress intensity (fatigue damage parameter S alt ) for some cases of non-proportional loading than that predicted for corresponding proportional loading case. However, the actual fatigue damage is higher in non-proportional loading than that in corresponding proportional loading case. Further the fatigue damage of an NPP component under realistic multi-axial cyclic loading conditions has been assessed using some popular critical plane based models vis-à-vis ASME Sec. III criteria. (author)

Lightning Evolution In Two North Central Florida Summer Multicell Storms and Three Winter/Spring Frontal Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Caicedo, J. A.; Uman, M. A.; Pilkey, J. T.

2018-01-01

We present the first lightning evolution studies, via the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and radar, performed in North Central Florida. Parts of three winter/spring frontal storms (cold season) and two complete summer (warm season) multicell storms are studied. Storm parameters measured are as follows: total number of flashes, flash-type classification, first flashes, flash initiation altitude, flash initiation power, flash rate (flashes per minute), charge structure, altitude and temperature ranges of the inferred charge regions, atmospheric isotherm altitude, radar base reflectivity (dBZ), and radar echo tops (EET). Several differences were found between summer multicell and winter/spring frontal storms in North Central Florida: (1) in winter/spring storms, the range of altitudes that all charge regions occupy is up to 1 km lower in altitude than in summer storms, as are the 0°C, -10°C, and -20°C isotherms; (2) lightning activity in summer storms is highly correlated with changes in radar signatures, in particular, echo tops; and (3) the LMA average initiation power of all flash types in winter/frontal storms is about an order of magnitude larger than that for summer storms. In relation to storms in other geographical locations, North Central Florida seasonal storms were found to have similarities in most parameters studied with a few differences, examples in Florida being (1) colder initiation altitudes for intracloud flashes, (2) charge regions occupying larger ranges of atmospheric temperatures, and (3) winter/spring frontal storms not having much lightning activity in the stratiform region.

Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Kryvasheyeu, Yury; Chen, Haohui; Obradovich, Nick; Moro, Esteban; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; Fowler, James; Cebrian, Manuel

2016-03-01

Could social media data aid in disaster response and damage assessment? Countries face both an increasing frequency and an increasing intensity of natural disasters resulting from climate change. During such events, citizens turn to social media platforms for disaster-related communication and information. Social media improves situational awareness, facilitates dissemination of emergency information, enables early warning systems, and helps coordinate relief efforts. In addition, the spatiotemporal distribution of disaster-related messages helps with the real-time monitoring and assessment of the disaster itself. We present a multiscale analysis of Twitter activity before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We examine the online response of 50 metropolitan areas of the United States and find a strong relationship between proximity to Sandy's path and hurricane-related social media activity. We show that real and perceived threats, together with physical disaster effects, are directly observable through the intensity and composition of Twitter's message stream. We demonstrate that per-capita Twitter activity strongly correlates with the per-capita economic damage inflicted by the hurricane. We verify our findings for a wide range of disasters and suggest that massive online social networks can be used for rapid assessment of damage caused by a large-scale disaster.

Design an effective storm water pollution prevention plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vivona, M.A.

1995-01-01

A case history shows ''how'' to plan and organize a storm water pollution prevention program (SWPPP). Using easy-to-use worksheets and guidelines, hydrocarbon processing industry (HPI) operators can build upon existing best management practices (i.e., housekeeping procedures, visual inspections, spill prevention programs, etc.) to meet tighter restrictions set by National Pollutant Discharge Elimination system (NPDES) permits. Especially in high rainfall areas, storm water poses an intermittent, but large volume problem. The facility's site size is another factor that impacts the scope and cost for SWPPP. The five steps to implementing a SWPPP are: Planning and organization; Assessment; Best management practice (BMP) identification; Implementation; Evaluation and monitoring. Initially, HPI operators must identify all potential contamination sources and past spills and leak areas. Following the SWPP guidelines, operators can map out a cost-effective storm water program that meets all NPDES requirements

Non-contact hematoma damage and healing assessment using reflectance photoplethysmographic imaging

Science.gov (United States)

Amelard, Robert; Pfisterer, Kaylen J.; Clausi, David A.; Wong, Alexander

2016-03-01

Impact trauma may cause a hematoma, which is the leakage of venous blood into surrounding tissues. Large hematomas can be dangerous as they may inhibit local blood ow. Hematomas are often diagnosed visually, which may be problematic if the hematoma leaks deeper than the visible penetration depth. Furthermore, vascular wound healing is often monitored at home without the aid of a clinician. We therefore investigated the use of near infrared (NIR) re ectance photoplethysmographic imaging (PPGI) to assess vascular damage resulting from a hematoma, and monitor the healing process. In this case study, the participant experienced internal vascular damage in the form of a hematoma. Using a PPGI system with dual-mode temporally coded illumination for ambient-agnostic data acquisition and mounted optical elements, the tissue was illuminated with a spatially uniform irradiance pattern of 850 nm wavelength light for increased tissue penetration and high oxy-to-deoxyhemoglobin absorption ratio. Initial and follow-up PPGI data collection was performed to assess vascular damage and healing. The tissue PPGI sequences were spectrally analyzed, producing spectral maps of the tissue area. Experimental results show that spatial differences in spectral information can be observed around the damaged area. In particular, the damaged site exhibited lower pulsatility than the surrounding healthy tissue. This pulsatility was largely restored in the follow-up data, suggesting that the tissue had undergone vascular healing. These results indicate that hematomas can be assessed and monitored in a non-contact visual manner, and suggests that PPGI can be used for tissue health assessment, with potential extensions to peripheral vascular disease.

Improved airfield damage assessment System (IADAS) capstone

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-01

that the Air Force Civil Engineer career field is prepared for the future of expeditionary warfare by integrating the latest technology into TTPs...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA SYSTEMS ENGINEERING CAPSTONE PROJECT REPORT Approved for public release...alternatives for improving the timeliness of airfield damage assessment. The systems engineering methods used included a morphological box and Pugh matrix

Storms in Ancient Egypt: the Examples of Historical Natural Disasters Impacts on the Society

Science.gov (United States)

Petrova, Anastasia

2013-04-01

Though rain storms are infrequent in Egypt, which is normally a rainless country, some Ancient Egyptian texts give accounts of violent storms and rains. Actually, even small amounts of rain in that area could cause huge impact, as none of the water was absorbed by soil, and, running off, it could create dangerous torrents. The Tempest stele, circa 1550 BC, recounts a highly destructive storm happened during the reign of Ahmose I, the king of Egypt's 18 dynasty. The catastrophy is described in details, including the specific noise, overall darkness, torrent so that no torch could be lit. Many houses were washed into the river, temples, tombs and pyramids damaged and collapsed. The stele commemorates the restoration works made by the king who was able to cope with this great disaster and "re-establish the Two Lands". Some egyptologists believe that this event is related to the Minoan eruption of Thera, but this is unlikely given the description in the stele.

[Diagnosis and treatment of thyroid storm].

Science.gov (United States)

Akamizu, Takashi

2012-11-01

Thyrotoxic storm is a life-threatening condition requiring emergency treatment. Neither its epidemiological data nor diagnostic criteria have been fully established. We clarified the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of thyroid storm using nationwide surveys and then formulate diagnostic criteria for thyroid storm. To perform the nationwide survey on thyroid storm, we first developed tentative diagnostic criteria for thyroid storm, mainly based upon the literature (the first edition). We analyzed the relationship of the major features of thyroid storm to mortality and to certain other features. Finally, based upon the findings of these surveys, we revised the diagnostic criteria. Thyrotoxic storm is still a life-threatening disorder with over 10% mortality in Japan.

Assessing the Performance of GPS Precise Point Positioning Under Different Geomagnetic Storm Conditions during Solar Cycle 24

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaomin Luo

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The geomagnetic storm, which is an abnormal space weather phenomenon, can sometimes severely affect GPS signal propagation, thereby impacting the performance of GPS precise point positioning (PPP. However, the investigation of GPS PPP accuracy over the global scale under different geomagnetic storm conditions is very limited. This paper for the first time presents the performance of GPS dual-frequency (DF and single-frequency (SF PPP under moderate, intense, and super storms conditions during solar cycle 24 using a large data set collected from about 500 international GNSS services (IGS stations. The global root mean square (RMS maps of GPS PPP results show that stations with degraded performance are mainly distributed at high-latitude, and the degradation level generally depends on the storm intensity. The three-dimensional (3D RMS of GPS DF PPP for high-latitude during moderate, intense, and super storms are 0.393 m, 0.680 m and 1.051 m, respectively, with respect to only 0.163 m on quiet day. RMS errors of mid- and low-latitudes show less dependence on the storm intensities, with values less than 0.320 m, compared to 0.153 m on quiet day. Compared with DF PPP, the performance of GPS SF PPP is inferior regardless of quiet or disturbed conditions. The degraded performance of GPS positioning during geomagnetic storms is attributed to the increased ionospheric disturbances, which have been confirmed by our global rate of TEC index (ROTI maps. Ionospheric disturbances not only lead to the deteriorated ionospheric correction but also to the frequent cycle-slip occurrence. Statistical results show that, compared with that on quiet day, the increased cycle-slip occurrence are 13.04%, 56.52%, and 69.57% under moderate, intense, and super storms conditions, respectively.

"Fair" mathematics in assessing delictual damages

OpenAIRE

Steynberg, L

2011-01-01

In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the actuary is to guide the court in the calculations to be made. Relying on its wide judicial discretion the court will have the final say regarding the correct...

Influence of storm characteristics on soil erosion and storm runoff

Science.gov (United States)

Johnny M. III Grace

2008-01-01

Unpaved forest roads can be major sources of sediment from forested watersheds. Storm runoff from forest roads are a concern due to their potential delivery of sediments and nutrients to stream systems resulting in degraded water quality. The volume and sediment concentrations of stormwater runoff emanating from forest roads can be greatly influenced by storm...

Effects of Asian dust storm events on daily mortality in Taipei, Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Y.-S.; Sheen, P.-C.; Chen, E.-R.; Liu, Y.-K.; Wu, T.-N.; Yang, C.-Y.

2004-01-01

In spring, windblown dust storms originating in the deserts of Mongolia and China make their way to Taipei City. These occurrences are known as Asian dust storm events. The objective of this study was to assess the possible effects of Asian dust storms on the mortality of residents in Taipei, Taiwan, during the period from 1995 to 2000. We identified 39 dust storm episodes, which were classified as index days. Daily deaths on the index days were compared with deaths on the comparison days. We selected two comparison days for each index day, 7 days before the index day and 7 days after the index day. The strongest estimated effects of dust storms were increases of 7.66% in risk for respiratory disease 1 day after the event, 4.92% for total deaths 2 days following the dust storms and 2.59% for circulatory diseases 2 days following the dust storms. However, none of these effects were statistically significant. This study found greater specificity for associations with respiratory deaths, and this increases the likelihood that the association between dust events and daily mortality represents a causal relationship

Thermospheric storms and related ionospheric effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chandra, S.; Spencer, N.W.

1976-01-01

A comparative study of thermospheric storms for the equinox and winter conditions is presented based on the neutral composition measurements from the Aeros-A Nate (Neutral Atmosphere Temperature Experiment) experiment. The main features of the two storms as inferred from the changes in N 2 , Ar, He, and O are described, and their implications to current theories of thermospheric storms are discussed. On the basis of the study of the F region critical frequency measured from a chain of ground-based ionospheric stations during the two storm periods, the general characteristics of the ionospheric storms and the traveling ionospheric disturbances are described. It is suggested that the positive and negative phases of ionospheric storms are the various manifestations of thermospheric storms

Assessment of the Temporal Evolution of Storm Surge via Land to Water Isopleths in Coastal Louisiana

Science.gov (United States)

Siverd, C. G.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Braud, D.; Gao, S.; Peele, H.; Twilley, R.

2017-12-01

The low-lying coastal Louisiana deltaic landscape features an intricate system of fragmented wetlands, natural ridges, man-made navigation canals and flood protection infrastructure. Since 1900 and prior to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Louisiana lost approximately 480,000 ha (1,850 sq mi) of coastal wetlands and an additional 20,000 ha (77 sq mi) due to Katrina. This resulted in a total wetland storm protection value loss of USD 28.3 billion and USD 1.1 billion, respectively (Costanza 2008). To investigate the response of hurricane storm surge (e.g. peak water levels, inundation time and extent) through time due to land loss, hydrodynamic models that represent historical eras of the Louisiana coastal landscape were developed. Land:Water (L:W) isopleths (Gagliano 1970, 1971, Twilley 2016) have been calculated along the coast from the Sabine River to the Pearl River. These isopleths were utilized to create a simplified coastal landscape (bathymetry, topography, bottom roughness) representing circa 2010. Similar methodologies are employed with the objective of developing storm surge models that represent the coastal landscape for past eras. The goal is to temporally examine the evolution of storm surge along coastal Louisiana. The isopleths determined to best represent the Louisiana coast as a result of the methodology devised to develop the simple storm surge model for c.2010 are applied in the development of surge models for historical eras c.1930 and c.1970. The ADvaced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) code (Luettich 2004) is used to perform storm surge simulations with a predetermined suite of hurricane wind and pressure forcings. Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC12) sub-watersheds provide geographical bounds to quantify mean maximum water surface elevations (WSEs), volume of inundation, and area of inundation. HUC12 sub-watersheds also provide a means to compare/contrast these quantified surge parameters on a HUC12-by-HUC12 basis for the c.1930, c.1970 and c.2010

Statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storms over Europe derived from a probabilistic clustering technique

Science.gov (United States)

Walz, Michael; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Extratropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal timescales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members, a broad and physically consistent statistical base can be created. This base can then be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storm occurrence more accurately. In order to determine the statistical uncertainty of storms with different paths of progression, a probabilistic clustering approach using regression mixture models is used to objectively assign storm tracks (either based on core pressure or on extreme wind speeds) to different clusters. The advantage of this technique is that the entire lifetime of a storm is considered for the clustering algorithm. Quadratic curves are found to describe the storm tracks most accurately. Three main clusters (diagonal, horizontal or vertical progression of the storm track) can be identified, each of which have their own particulate features. Basic storm features like average velocity and duration are calculated and compared for each cluster. The main benefit of this clustering technique, however, is to evaluate if the clusters show different degrees of uncertainty, e.g. more (less) spread for tracks approaching Europe horizontally (diagonally). This statistical uncertainty is compared for different seasonal forecast products.

Substorms during different storm phases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Partamies

2011-11-01

Full Text Available After the deep solar minimum at the end of the solar cycle 23, a small magnetic storm occurred on 20–26 January 2010. The Dst (disturbance storm time index reached the minimum of −38 nT on 20 January and the prolonged recovery that followed the main phase that lasted for about 6 days. In this study, we concentrate on three substorms that took place (1 just prior to the storm, (2 during the main phase of the storm, and (3 at the end of the recovery of the storm. We analyse the solar wind conditions from the solar wind monitoring spacecraft, the duration and intensity of the substorm events as well as the behaviour of the electrojet currents from the ground magnetometer measurements. We compare the precipitation characteristics of the three substorms. The results show that the F-region electron density enhancements and dominant green and red auroral emission of the substorm activity during the storm recovery resembles average isolated substorm precipitation. However, the energy dissipated, even at the very end of a prolonged storm recovery, is very large compared to the typical energy content of isolated substorms. In the case studied here, the dissipation of the excess energy is observed over a 3-h long period of several consecutive substorm intensifications. Our findings suggest that the substorm energy dissipation varies between the storm phases.

Thromboembolic complications of thyroid storm.

Science.gov (United States)

Min, T; Benjamin, S; Cozma, L

2014-01-01

Thyroid storm is a rare but potentially life-threatening complication of hyperthyroidism. Early recognition and prompt treatment are essential. Atrial fibrillation can occur in up to 40% of patients with thyroid storm. Studies have shown that hyperthyroidism increases the risk of thromboembolic events. There is no consensus with regard to the initiation of anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation in severe thyrotoxicosis. Anticoagulation is not routinely initiated if the risk is low on a CHADS2 score; however, this should be considered in patients with thyroid storm or severe thyrotoxicosis with impending storm irrespective of the CHADS2 risk, as it appears to increase the risk of thromboembolic episodes. Herein, we describe a case of thyroid storm complicated by massive pulmonary embolism. Diagnosis of thyroid storm is based on clinical findings. Early recognition and prompt treatment could lead to a favourable outcome.Hypercoagulable state is a recognised complication of thyrotoxicosis.Atrial fibrillation is strongly associated with hyperthyroidism and thyroid storm.Anticoagulation should be considered for patients with severe thyrotoxicosis and atrial fibrillation irrespective of the CHADS2 score.Patients with severe thyrotoxicosis and clinical evidence of thrombosis should be immediately anticoagulated until hyperthyroidism is under control.

Thinking on the consequence of snow storm to nuclear power development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Liyin

2008-01-01

In view of the extensive damages caused by the heavy snow storm happened in Southern regions in early 2008, the superiority of nuclear power as compared to thermal power is expounded, which indicates that nuclear power development is imperative under the situation. Meanwhile, it points out that there shall be sound counter measures in containment design, protection of power supply system, and safety and reliability of internal structures for the sake of safety of nuclear power plant. (authors)

Environmental damage schedules: community judgments of importance and assessments of losses

Science.gov (United States)

Ratana Chuenpagdee; Jack L. Knetsch; Thomas C. Brown

2001-01-01

Available methods of valuing environmental changes are often limited in their applicability to current issues such as damage assessment and implementing regulatory controls, or may otherwise not provide reliable readings of community preferences. An alternative is to base decisions on predetermined fixed schedules of sanctions, restrictions, damage awards, and other...

Perfect storm: Therapeutic plasma exchange for a patient with thyroid storm.

Science.gov (United States)

McGonigle, Andrea M; Tobian, Aaron A R; Zink, Jennifer L; King, Karen E

2018-02-01

Thyroid storm is a potentially lethal complication of hyperthyroidism with increased thyroid hormones and exaggerated symptoms of thyrotoxicosis. First-line therapy includes methimazole (MMI) or propylthiouracil (PTU) to block production of thyroid hormones as a bridge toward definitive surgical treatment. Untreated thyroid storm has a mortality rate of up to 30%; this is particularly alarming when patients cannot tolerate or fail pharmacotherapy, especially if they cannot undergo thyroidectomy. Therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) is an ASFA category III indication for thyroid storm, meaning the optimum role of this therapy is not established, and there are a limited number of cases in the literature. Yet TPE can remove T3 and T4 bound to albumin, autoantibodies, catecholamines and cytokines and is likely beneficial for these patients. We report a patient with thyroid storm who could not tolerate PTU, subsequently failed therapy with MMI, and was not appropriate for thyroidectomy. TPE was therefore performed daily for 4 days (1.0 plasma volume with 5% albumin replacement and 2 U of plasma). Over the treatment course, the patient's thyroid hormones normalized and symptoms of thyroid storm largely resolved; his T3 decreased from 2.27 to 0.81 ng/mL (normal 0.8-2.0), T4 decreased from 4.8 to 1.7 ng/mL (0.8-1.8), heart rate normalized, altered mental status improved, and he converted to normal sinus rhythm. He was ultimately discharged in euthyroid state. He experienced no side effects from his TPE procedures. TPE is a safe and effective treatment for thyroid storm when conventional treatments are not successful or appropriate. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Magnetic Storms at Mars and Earth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Falkenberg, Thea Vilstrup

In analogy with magnetic storms at the Earth, periods of significantly enhanced global magnetic activity also exist at Mars. The extensive database of magnetic measurements from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), covering almost an entire solar cycle, is used in combination with geomagnetic activity...... indices at Earth to compare the occurrence of magnetic storms at Mars and Earth. Based on superposed epochs analysis the time-development of typical magnetic storms at Mars and Earth is described. In contradiction to storms at Earth, most magnetic storms at Mars are found to be associated...... with heliospheric current sheet crossings, where the IMF changes polarity. While most storms at the Earth occur due to significant southward excursions of the IMF associated with CMEs, at Mars most storms seem to be associated with the density enhancement of the heliospheric current sheet. Density enhancements...

Perceptions of severe storms, climate change, ecological structures and resiliency three years post-hurricane Sandy in New Jersey.

Science.gov (United States)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

2017-12-01

Global warming is leading to increased frequency and severity of storms that are associated with flooding, increasing the risk to urban, coastal populations. This study examined perceptions of the relationship between severe storms, sea level rise, climate change and ecological barriers by a vulnerable environmental justice population in New Jersey. Patients using New Jersey's Federally Qualified Health Centers were interviewed after Hurricane [Superstorm] Sandy because it is essential to understand the perceptions of uninsured, underinsured, and economically challenged people to better develop a resiliency strategy for the most vulnerable people. Patients ( N = 355) using 6 centers were interviewed using a structured interview form. Patients were interviewed in the order they entered the reception area, in either English or Spanish. Respondents were asked to rate their agreement with environmental statements. Respondents 1) agreed with experts that "severe storms were due to climate change", "storms will come more often", and that "flooding was due to sea level rise", 2) did not agree as strongly that "climate change was due to human activity", 3) were neutral for statements that " Sandy damages were due to loss of dunes or salt marshes". 4) did not differ as a function of ethnic/racial categories, and 5) showed few gender differences. It is imperative that the public understand that climate change and sea level rise are occurring so that they support community programs (and funding) to prepare for increased frequency of storms and coastal flooding. The lack of high ratings for the role of dunes and marshes in preventing flooding indicates a lack of understanding that ecological structures protect coasts, and suggests a lack of support for management actions to restore dunes as part of a coastal preparedness strategy. Perceptions that do not support a public policy of coastal zone management to protect coastlines can lead to increased flooding, extensive property

SLR-induced temporal and spatial changes in hotspots to storms along the Catalan coast

Science.gov (United States)

Jiménez, Jose A.; Sanuy, Marc; Valdemoro, Herminia

2017-04-01

Coastal hotspots to storms can be simply defined as locations where the magnitude of the storm-induced risk is significantly higher than neighbouring areas for a given probability of occurrence. Their distribution along the coast depends on the magnitude of storm-induced hazards and on the coastal resilient capacity. Increasing damages observed in our coasts during the last decades have driven the need to include specific chapters on risk management in ICZM plans. In this context, the identification of hotspots is one of the first points to be considered. This permits to better allocate resources for risk management by concentrating efforts in specific locations. Within this context, we have identified hotspots along the Catalan coast (Spanish Mediterranean) to storm-induced erosion and inundation hazards. This has been done by using the methodology developed within the RISCKIT EU project where storm-induced hazards (erosion and inundation) are characterised in probabilistic terms by using simple inundation and erosion models as a function of water level and wave climates and local coastal morphology. The final result was a set of inundation and erosion hotspots along the coast under current conditions for selected probabilities of occurrences, P. For low return periods, Tr, few hotspots appear and they represent coastal locations frequently affected by the corresponding hazard. On the other, for high Tr, a larger number (and of larger extension) of hotspots appear, that although less frequently affected, they are subjected to a larger impact. Although this is valuable information for coastal managers, it is only valid for making decisions for a short time horizon or under steady conditions. However, since the proper time scale for coastal planning is in the order of several decades, it is not likely that conditions will remain steady. Thus, although most of existing predictions of climate-induce changes in storminess in the Mediterranean indicate the absence of

Assessment of damage domains of the High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flores, Alain; Izquierdo, José María; Tuček, Kamil; Gallego, Eduardo

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We developed an adequate model for the identification of damage domains of the HTTR. • We analysed an anticipated operational transient, using the HTTR5+/GASTEMP code. • We simulated several transients of the same sequence. • We identified the corresponding damage domains using two methods. • We calculated exceedance frequency using the two methods. - Abstract: This paper presents an assessment analysis of damage domains of the 30 MW th prototype High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) operated by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). For this purpose, an in-house deterministic risk assessment computational tool was developed based on the Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD). To illustrate the methodology and applicability of the developed modelling approach, assessment results of a control rod (CR) withdrawal accident during subcritical conditions are presented and compared with those obtained by the JAEA

Assessing the impact of cyclones in the coastal zone of Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, Judith; Bricheno, Lucy; Chowdury, Shahad; Rahman, Munsur; Ghosh, Tuhin; Kay, Susan; Caesar, John

2014-05-01

We review the state of knowledge regarding tropical cyclones and their impacts on coastal ecosystems, as well as the livelihood and health of the coastal communities, under the present and future climate, with application to the coastal zone of Bangladesh. This region is particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones as it is very low-lying and densely populated. Cyclones cause damage due to the high wind speed and also the ensuing storm surge, which causes inundation and salinity intrusion into agricultural land and contaminates fresh water. The world's largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, protects the coast of the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna (BGM) delta from these cyclonic storms but mangroves are themselves vulnerable to cyclone damage, as in 2007 when ~36% of the mangrove area was severely damaged leading to further losses of livelihood. We apply an idealised cyclone model and use the winds and pressures from this model to drive a storm surge model in the Bay of Bengal, in order to examine the impact of the intensity, track speed and landfall of the cyclones in terms of surge and inundation. The model is tested by reproducing the track and intensity of Cyclone Sidr of 2007. We also examine the projected future climate from the South Asia Regional Climate Model to understand how tropical cyclones may change under global warming and assess how this may impact the BGM Delta over the 21st century.

Direct observations of atmosphere - sea ice - ocean interactions during Arctic winter and spring storms

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, R. M.; Itkin, P.; Granskog, M. A.; Assmy, P.; Cohen, L.; Duarte, P.; Doble, M. J.; Fransson, A.; Fer, I.; Fernandez Mendez, M.; Frey, M. M.; Gerland, S.; Haapala, J. J.; Hudson, S. R.; Liston, G. E.; Merkouriadi, I.; Meyer, A.; Muilwijk, M.; Peterson, A.; Provost, C.; Randelhoff, A.; Rösel, A.; Spreen, G.; Steen, H.; Smedsrud, L. H.; Sundfjord, A.

2017-12-01

To study the thinner and younger sea ice that now dominates the Arctic the Norwegian Young Sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) was launched in the ice-covered region north of Svalbard, from January to June 2015. During this time, eight local and remote storms affected the region and rare direct observations of the atmosphere, snow, ice and ocean were conducted. Six of these winter storms passed directly over the expedition and resulted in air temperatures rising from below -30oC to near 0oC, followed by abrupt cooling. Substantial snowfall prior to the campaign had already formed a snow pack of approximately 50 cm, to which the February storms contributed an additional 6 cm. The deep snow layer effectively isolated the ice cover and prevented bottom ice growth resulting in low brine fluxes. Peak wind speeds during winter storms exceeded 20 m/s, causing strong snow re-distribution, release of sea salt aerosol and sea ice deformation. The heavy snow load caused widespread negative freeboard; during sea ice deformation events, level ice floes were flooded by sea water, and at least 6-10 cm snow-ice layer was formed. Elevated deformation rates during the most powerful winter storms damaged the ice cover permanently such that the response to wind forcing increased by 60 %. As a result of a remote storm in April deformation processes opened about 4 % of the total area into leads with open water, while a similar amount of ice was deformed into pressure ridges. The strong winds also enhanced ocean mixing and increased ocean heat fluxes three-fold in the pycnocline from 4 to 12 W/m2. Ocean heat fluxes were extremely large (over 300 W/m2) during storms in regions where the warm Atlantic inflow is located close to surface over shallow topography. This resulted in very large (5-25 cm/day) bottom ice melt and in cases flooding due to heavy snow load. Storm events increased the carbon dioxide exchange between the atmosphere and ocean but also affected the pCO2 in surface waters

Rapid Inventory Collection System (RICS) and the 2009 Victorian Bushfires impact assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Habili, N; Corby, N; Cechet, R P, E-mail: nariman.habili@ga.gov.a [Risk and Impact Analysis Group, Geoscience Australia G.PO Box 378, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory (Australia)

2010-08-15

The Rapid Inventory Collection System (RICS) is a vehicular data collection system (image and GPS) used for building/infrastructure damage and inventory assessment. The system consists of Ethernet cameras attached to a tripod mounted on a motor vehicle, a GPS receiver and software written in C++. RICS was deployed following the 2009 Victorian Bushfires and the collected data was used by the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission for the impact assessment (field survey) which quantified the extent and severity of the damage caused to residential buildings by the fire-storm. The regions of Kilmore East, Murrindindi, Churchill, Maiden Gully - Bendigo and Bunyip had nearly 5400 residential structures within the fire perimeter. Analysis utilising both aerial and vehicular (RICS) imagery indicates that just over 2100 homes were destroyed and an additional 800 received minor damage.

Application of Remote Sensing in Building Damages Assessment after Moderate and Strong Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Y.; Zhang, J.; Dou, A.

2003-04-01

- Earthquake is a main natural disaster in modern society. However, we still cannot predict the time and place of its occurrence accurately. Then it is of much importance to survey the damages information when an earthquake occurs, which can help us to mitigate losses and implement fast damage evaluation. In this paper, we use remote sensing techniques for our purposes. Remotely sensed satellite images often view a large scale of land at a time. There are several kinds of satellite images, which of different spatial and spectral resolutions. Landsat-4/5 TM sensor can view ground at 30m resolution, while Landsat-7 ETM Plus has a resolution of 15m in panchromatic waveband. SPOT satellite can provide images with higher resolutions. Those images obtained pre- and post-earthquake can help us greatly in identifying damages of moderate and large-size buildings. In this paper, we bring forward a method to implement quick damages assessment by analyzing both pre- and post-earthquake satellite images. First, those images are geographically registered together with low RMS (Root Mean Square) error. Then, we clip out residential areas by overlaying images with existing vector layers through Geographic Information System (GIS) software. We present a new change detection algorithm to quantitatively identify damages degree. An empirical or semi-empirical model is then established by analyzing the real damage degree and changes of pixel values of the same ground objects. Experimental result shows that there is a good linear relationship between changes of pixel values and ground damages, which proves the potentials of remote sensing in post-quake fast damage assessment. Keywords: Damages Assessment, Earthquake Hazard, Remote Sensing

Mediterranean Storms: An Integrated Approach of Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Karageorgou, H.; Riza, E.; Linos, A.; Papanikolaou, D.

2010-09-01

Disaster by UN definition is "a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using only its own resources". Mediterranean storms induce flash floods caused by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short lasting period of time. The intensity and duration of precipitation, region geomorphology, urbanization and different governmental emergency management structures trigger different consequences between Mediterranean countries. The integrated approach in management of storm risk represents a holistic perspective including interactions between government, science and technology institutions, developing agencies, private sector, NGOs and public. Local authorities and national government are responsible for the design, preparation and decision on storm risk management policies and strategies considering scientific risk identifying, assessing and understanding. Efficient governance management requires satisfied response to early warning systems, functionality of the affected systems upon which society depends and appropriate focus on variable interest, beliefs, values and ideologies between social groups. Also an appropriate balancing of benefits and costs in an efficient and equitable manner is important for the governance risk management. Natural sciences in corporation with the engineering science have developed effective early prediction, warning and monitoring systems on storm and flood risk. The health sciences use prediction systems for health related hazards and consequences and the social sciences research estimates the human resilience during disasters and the factors which affect and determine the human behavior. Also social sciences survey the response of public to early warning messages, the appropriate communicative methods to distributing messages and mechanisms to improve public

Ice Damage in a Georgia Planting of Loblolly Pine from Different Seed Sources

Science.gov (United States)

Earle P. Jones; Osborn O. Wells

1969-01-01

After a severe ice storm in south-central Georgia, the degree of ice damage in a provenance test planting of 11-year-old loblolly pines varied considerably among the nine widely seperated seed sources represented. Damage was less among tress from the colder, more inland locations than among tress from coastal areas where the climate is more moderate. In terms of...

Relationship between substorms and storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamide, Y.

1980-01-01

In an attempt to deduce a plausible working model of the relationship between magnetospheric substorms and storms, recent relevant studies of various processes occurring during disturbed periods are integrated along with some theoretical suggestions. It has been shown that the main phase of geomagnetic storms is associated with the successive occurrence of intense substorms and with the sustained southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). However, these relations are only qualitatively understood, and thus basic questions remain unanswered involving the hypothesis whether a magnetic storm is a non-linear (or linear) superposition of intense substorms, each of which constitutes an elementary storm, or the main phase of magnetic storms occurs as a result of the intense southward IMF which enhances magnetospheric convection and increases occurrence probability of substorms. (Auth.)

Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, S. S.

2017-12-01

The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

Status of the TMI-2 core: a review of damage assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croucher, D.W.

1981-01-01

Assessments of the damage within the core of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 reactor, performed by reconstructing the transient thermal-hydraulic sequence of events, estimating the amount of hydrogen generation, and evaluating the amount of fission products released, are reviewed and summarized. Minimum and maximum bounds of damage to the core are identified

Damage assessment in multilayered MEMS structures under thermal fatigue

Science.gov (United States)

Maligno, A. R.; Whalley, D. C.; Silberschmidt, V. V.

2011-07-01

This paper reports on the application of a Physics of Failure (PoF) methodology to assessing the reliability of a micro electro mechanical system (MEMS). Numerical simulations, based on the finite element method (FEM) using a sub-domain approach was used to examine the damage onset due to temperature variations (e.g. yielding of metals which may lead to thermal fatigue). In this work remeshing techniques were employed in order to develop a damage tolerance approach based on the assumption that initial flaws exist in the multi-layered.

Apnea of prematurity--perfect storm.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Fiore, Juliann M; Martin, Richard J; Gauda, Estelle B

2013-11-01

With increased survival of preterm infants as young as 23 weeks gestation, maintaining adequate respiration and corresponding oxygenation represents a clinical challenge in this unique patient cohort. Respiratory instability characterized by apnea and periodic breathing occurs in premature infants because of immature development of the respiratory network. While short respiratory pauses and apnea may be of minimal consequence if oxygenation is maintained, they can be problematic if accompanied by chronic intermittent hypoxemia. Underdevelopment of the lung and the resultant lung injury that occurs in this population concurrent with respiratory instability creates the perfect storm leading to frequent episodes of profound and recurrent hypoxemia. Chronic intermittent hypoxemia contributes to the immediate and long term co-morbidities that occur in this population. In this review we discuss the pathophysiology leading to the perfect storm, diagnostic assessment of breathing instability in this unique population and therapeutic interventions that aim to stabilize breathing without contributing to tissue injury. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Stochastic renewal process models for estimation of damage cost over the life-cycle of a structure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pandey, Mahesh D.; van der Weide, J.A.M.

2017-01-01

In the life-cycle cost analysis of a structure, the total cost of damage caused by external hazards like earthquakes, wind storms and flood is an important but highly uncertain component. In the literature, the expected damage cost is typically analyzed under the assumption of either the

76 FR 63628 - Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR)

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-13

...] Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) AGENCY: Federal... Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR). DATES: Comments must be received by November 14, 2011... of the draft Preliminary Damage Assessment for Individual Assistance Operations Manual (9327.2-PR) on...

Predicting the occurrence of super-storms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Srivastava

2005-11-01

Full Text Available A comparative study of five super-storms (Dst<-300 nT of the current solar cycle after the launch of SoHO, to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of resulting geomagnetic storms, is described. Amongst solar variables, the initial speed of a CME is considered the most reliable predictor of the strength of the associated geomagnetic storm because fast mass ejections are responsible for building up the ram pressure at the Earth's magnetosphere. However, although most of the super-storms studied were associated with high speed CMEs, the Dst index of the resulting geomagnetic storms varied between -300 to -472 nT. The most intense storm of 20 November 2003, (Dst ~ -472 nT had its source in a comparatively smaller active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare while all other super-storms had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. However, this superstorm did not show any associated extraordinary solar and interplanetary characteristics. The study also reveals the challenge in the reliable prediction of the magnitude of a geomagnetic storm from solar and interplanetary variables.

The structure of the big magnetic storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mihajlivich, J. Spomenko; Chop, Rudi; Palangio, Paolo

2010-01-01

The records of geomagnetic activity during Solar Cycles 22 and 23 (which occurred from 1986 to 2006) indicate several extremely intensive A-class geomagnetic storms. These were storms classified in the category of the Big Magnetic Storms. In a year of maximum solar activity during Solar Cycle 23, or more precisely, during a phase designated as a post-maximum phase in solar activity (PPM - Phase Post maximum), near the autumn equinox, on 29, October 2003, an extremely strong and intensive magnetic storm was recorded. In the first half of November 2004 (7, November 2004) an intensive magnetic storm was recorded (the Class Big Magnetic Storm). The level of geomagnetic field variations which were recorded for the selected Big Magnetic Storms, was ΔD st=350 nT. For the Big Magnetic Storms the indicated three-hour interval indices geomagnetic activity was Kp = 9. This study presents the spectral composition of the Di - variations which were recorded during magnetic storms in October 2003 and November 2004. (Author)

Evaluation of the STORM model storm-time corrections for middle latitude

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Burešová, Dalia; McKinnell, L.- A.; Šindelářová, Tereza; de la Morena, B. A.

2010-01-01

Roč. 46, č. 8 (2010), s. 1039-1046 ISSN 0273-1177 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/08/1356; GA AV ČR 1QS300120506 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Ionosphere * Geomagnetic storms * STORM model * International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.076, year: 2010

Coastal Flooding Hazards due to storm surges and subsidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole B.

Flooding hazard and risk mapping are major topics in low-lying coastal areas before even considering the adverse effects of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change. While permanent inundation may be a prevalent issue, more often floods related to extreme events (storm surges) have the largest...... damage potential.Challenges are amplified in some areas due to subsidence from natural and/or anthropogenic causes. Subsidence of even a few mm/y may over time greatly impair the safety against flooding of coastal communities and must be accounted for in order to accomplish the economically most viable...

Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng; Wang, Xue

2017-01-01

As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor. (paper)

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

Development of creep damage assessment system for aged thermal power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nonaka, Isamu [IshikawaJima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Umaki, Hideo [Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Nishida, Hidetalca [The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc., Hiroshima (Japan); Yamaguchi, Hiroshi [The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc., Hiroshima (Japan)

1999-12-31

IHI has developed the Creep Damage Assessment System to identify voids by processing an image observed by a small laser microscope with an advanced image processing technique jointly with Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc. The result can be obtained immediately on the spot. Application tests of the system at the Unit No.3 boiler of the Kudamatsu Power Station showed good operability, adaptability to the environment, and accuracy. The new system can easily indicate damage conditions in parts during the periodical inspection, allowing rapid maintenance. Time reduction required for assessment and increased reliability of equipment can be also achieved. (orig.)

Development of creep damage assessment system for aged thermal power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nonaka, Isamu [IshikawaJima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Umaki, Hideo [Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Nishida, Hidetalca [The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc., Hiroshima (Japan); Yamaguchi, Hiroshi [The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc., Hiroshima (Japan)

1998-12-31

IHI has developed the Creep Damage Assessment System to identify voids by processing an image observed by a small laser microscope with an advanced image processing technique jointly with Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc. The result can be obtained immediately on the spot. Application tests of the system at the Unit No.3 boiler of the Kudamatsu Power Station showed good operability, adaptability to the environment, and accuracy. The new system can easily indicate damage conditions in parts during the periodical inspection, allowing rapid maintenance. Time reduction required for assessment and increased reliability of equipment can be also achieved. (orig.)

Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Underwood, Seth

2017-12-01

In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s-1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.

Development of a seismic damage assessment program for nuclear power plant structures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koh, Hyun Moo; Cho, Yang Heui; Shin, Hyun Mok [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

2001-12-15

The most part of the nuclear power plants operating currently in Korea are more than 20 years old and obviously we cannot pretend that their original performance is actually maintained. In addition, earthquake occurrences show an increasing trend all over the world, and Korea can no more be considered as a zone safe from earthquake. Therefore, need is to guarantee the safety of these power plant structures against seismic accident, to decide to maintain them operational and to obtain data relative to maintenance/repair. Such objectives can be reached by damage assessment using inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation. It appears to be more important particularly for the structure enclosing the nuclear reactor that must absolutely protect against any radioactive leakage. Actually, the tendency of the technical world, led by the OECD/NEA, BNL in the United States, CEA in France and IAEA, is to develop researches or programs to assess the seismic safety considering aging degradation of operating nuclear power plants. Regard to the above-mentioned international technical trend, a technology to establish inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation so as to assess damage level and seismic safety margin appears to be necessary. Damage assessment and prediction system to grasp in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and damage level by 3-dimensional graphic representations are also required.

Development of a seismic damage assessment program for nuclear power plant structures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koh, Hyun Moo; Cho, Ho Hyun; Cho, Yang Hui [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

2000-12-15

Some of nuclear power plants operating currently in Korea have been passed about 20 years after construction. Moreover, in the case of KORI I the service year is over 20 years, so their abilities are different from initial abilities. Also, earthquake outbreak increase, our country is not safe area for earthquake. Therefore, need is to guarantee the safety of these power plant structures against seismic accident, to decide to maintain them operational and to obtain data relative to maintenance/repair. Such objectives can be reached by damage assessment using inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation. It appears to be more important particularly for the structure enclosing the nuclear reactor that must absolutely protect against any radioactive leakage. Actually, the tendency of the technical world, led by the OECD/NEA, BNL in the United States, CEA in France and IAEA, is to develop researches or programs to assess the seismic safety considering aging degradation of operating nuclear power plants. Regard to the above-mentioned international technical trend, a technology to establish inelastic seismic analysis considering aging degradation so as to assess damage level and seismic safety margin appears to be necessary. Damage assessment and prediction system to grasp in real-time the actual seismic resistance capacity and damage level by 3-dimensional graphic representations are also required.

Emergency Response Damage Assessment using Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Science.gov (United States)

Clandillon, Stephen; Yésou, Hervé; Schneiderhan, Tobias; de Boissezon, Hélène; de Fraipont, Paul

2013-04-01

During disasters rescue and relief organisations need quick access to reliable and accurate information to be better equipped to do their job. It is increasingly felt that satellites offer a unique near real time (NRT) tool to aid disaster management. A short introduction to the International Charter 'Space and Major Disasters', in operation since 2000 promoting worldwide cooperation among member space agencies, will be given as it is the foundation on which satellite-based, emergency response, damage assessment has been built. Other complementary mechanisms will also be discussed. The user access, triggering mechanism, an essential component for this user-driven service, will be highlighted with its 24/7 single access point. Then, a clear distinction will be made between data provision and geo-information delivery mechanisms to underline the user need for geo-information that is easily integrated into their working environments. Briefly, the path to assured emergency response product quality will be presented beginning with user requirements, expressed early-on, for emergency response value-adding services. Initiatives were then established, supported by national and European institutions, to develop the sector, with SERTIT and DLR being key players, providing support to decision makers in headquarters and relief teams in the field. To consistently meet the high quality levels demanded by users, rapid mapping has been transformed via workflow and quality control standardisation to improve both speed and quality. As such, SERTIT located in Alsace, France, and DLR/ZKI from Bavaria, Germany, join their knowledge in this presentation to report about recent standards as both have ISO certified their rapid mapping services based on experienced, well-trained, 24/7 on-call teams and established systems providing the first crisis analysis product in 6 hours after satellite data reception. The three main product types provided are then outlined: up-to-date pre

Predicting the occurrence of super-storms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Srivastava

2005-11-01

Full Text Available A comparative study of five super-storms (D_st<-300 nT of the current solar cycle after the launch of SoHO, to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of resulting geomagnetic storms, is described. Amongst solar variables, the initial speed of a CME is considered the most reliable predictor of the strength of the associated geomagnetic storm because fast mass ejections are responsible for building up the ram pressure at the Earth's magnetosphere. However, although most of the super-storms studied were associated with high speed CMEs, the D_st index of the resulting geomagnetic storms varied between -300 to -472 nT. The most intense storm of 20 November 2003, (D_st ~ -472 nT had its source in a comparatively smaller active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare while all other super-storms had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. However, this superstorm did not show any associated extraordinary solar and interplanetary characteristics. The study also reveals the challenge in the reliable prediction of the magnitude of a geomagnetic storm from solar and interplanetary variables.

Assessment of injury from the MEGA BORG oil spill: A case of cooperative damage assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mauseth, G.S.

1993-01-01

The tanker MEGA BORG exploded while lightering about 60 miles offshore of Galveston, Texas on 8 June 1990. The explosion was followed by a spectacular fire and major release of Angolan crude. Up to 5.1 million gallons of the 41 million gallon cargo was lost to the sea or burning over a period of seven days. Vessel interests took responsibility for the spill and employed skimming and dispersive cleanup techniques. It is estimated that approximately 126 gallons ultimately reached shore in western Louisiana. Within a day of the explosion, the Norwegian vessel owner, French cargo owner and the Norwegian vessel insurer entered into discussion with the Texas Water Commission and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration regarding damage assessment options. Within the next two days the owners agreed to fund and participate in a cooperative preliminary assessment of environmental injury. Five projects were funded to determine whether there was sufficient injury to justify the completion of a full natural resource damage assessment: (1) Fate of spilled oil; (2) Effects on shrimp fishery; (3) Effects on marine mammals and turtles; (4) Effects of beach oiling and (5) Effects on recreation. Funds were also provided for report preparation and project management. Several issues of major concern were considered by vessel interests prior to agreement. Many of these issues are common to consideration of cooperative assessments and may be critical importance to future incidents particularly if the damage assessment regulations developed pursuant to the Oil Pollution Act encourage cooperative responses

Thyroid storm: an updated review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiha, Maguy; Samarasinghe, Shanika; Kabaker, Adam S

2015-03-01

Thyroid storm, an endocrine emergency first described in 1926, remains a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge. No laboratory abnormalities are specific to thyroid storm, and the available scoring system is based on the clinical criteria. The exact mechanisms underlying the development of thyroid storm from uncomplicated hyperthyroidism are not well understood. A heightened response to thyroid hormone is often incriminated along with increased or abrupt availability of free hormones. Patients exhibit exaggerated signs and symptoms of hyperthyroidism and varying degrees of organ decompensation. Treatment should be initiated promptly targeting all steps of thyroid hormone formation, release, and action. Patients who fail medical therapy should be treated with therapeutic plasma exchange or thyroidectomy. The mortality of thyroid storm is currently reported at 10%. Patients who have survived thyroid storm should receive definite therapy for their underlying hyperthyroidism to avoid any recurrence of this potentially fatal condition. © The Author(s) 2013.

The electric storm of November 1882

Science.gov (United States)

Love, Jeffrey J.

2018-01-01

In November 1882, an intense magnetic storm related to a large sunspot group caused widespread interference to telegraph and telephone systems and provided spectacular and unusual auroral displays. The (ring current) storm time disturbance index for this storm reached maximum −Dst ≈ 386 nT, comparable to Halloween storm of 29–31 October 2003, but from 17 to 20 November the aa midlatitude geomagnetic disturbance index averaged 214.25 nT, the highest 4 day level of disturbance since the beginning of aa index in 1868. This storm contributed to scientists' understanding of the reality of solar‐terrestrial interaction. Past occurrences of magnetic storms, like that of November 1882, can inform modern evaluations of the deleterious effects that a magnetic superstorm might have on technological systems of importance to society.

Ionospheric storms at geophysically-equivalent sites – Part 1: Storm-time patterns for sub-auroral ionospheres

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mendillo

2009-04-01

Full Text Available The systematic study of ionospheric storms has been conducted primarily with groundbased data from the Northern Hemisphere. Significant progress has been made in defining typical morphology patterns at all latitudes; mechanisms have been identified and tested via modeling. At higher mid-latitudes (sites that are typically sub-auroral during non-storm conditions, the processes that change significantly during storms can be of comparable magnitudes, but with different time constants. These include ionospheric plasma dynamics from the penetration of magnetospheric electric fields, enhancements to thermospheric winds due to auroral and Joule heating inputs, disturbance dynamo electrodynamics driven by such winds, and thermospheric composition changes due to the changed circulation patterns. The ~12° tilt of the geomagnetic field axis causes significant longitude effects in all of these processes in the Northern Hemisphere. A complementary series of longitude effects would be expected to occur in the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we begin a series of studies to investigate the longitudinal-hemispheric similarities and differences in the response of the ionosphere's peak electron density to geomagnetic storms. The ionosonde stations at Wallops Island (VA and Hobart (Tasmania have comparable geographic and geomagnetic latitudes for sub-auroral locations, are situated at longitudes close to that of the dipole tilt, and thus serve as our candidate station-pair choice for studies of ionospheric storms at geophysically-comparable locations. They have an excellent record of observations of the ionospheric penetration frequency (foF2 spanning several solar cycles, and thus are suitable for long-term studies. During solar cycle #20 (1964–1976, 206 geomagnetic storms occurred that had Ap≥30 or Kp≥5 for at least one day of the storm. Our analysis of average storm-time perturbations (percent deviations from the monthly means showed a remarkable

Damage Identification and Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Historic Masonry Chimney

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria-Giovanna Masciotta

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The present paper deals with the dynamic characterisation of a historical masonry chimney aimed at identifying the structural damage and assessing its seismic performance. The structure was severely damaged by a lightning accident and in-depth repair works were executed to re-instate its sound configuration. The case study is fully detailed, including the aspects of survey, inspection, diagnosis, and evolution of the dynamic properties of the system throughout the structural intervention. Considering the explicit dependence of the power spectral densities of measured nodal processes on their frequency content, a spectrum-driven algorithm is used to detect and locate the damage. The paper shows that the eigenparameters obtained from the decomposition of the response power spectrum matrix are sensitive to system’s changes caused by evolutionary damage scenarios, thereby resulting excellent indicators for assessing both the presence and position of structural vulnerabilities. The results are compared with the ones from other modal-based damage identification methods and the strengths/limitations of the tools currently available in literature are extensively discussed. Finally, based on the crack pattern surveyed before the repair works, the weakest links of the chimney are identified and the most meaningful collapse mechanisms are analysed to verify the seismic capacity of the structure. According to the results of the kinematic analysis, the chimney does withstand the maximum site peak ground acceleration.

Intelligent Aircraft Damage Assessment, Trajectory Planning, and Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, Israel; Sarigul-Klijn, Nesrin

Situational awareness and learning are necessary to identify and select the optimal set of mutually non-exclusive hypothesis in order to maximize mission performance and adapt system behavior accordingly. This paper presents a hierarchical and decentralized approach for integrated damage assessment and trajectory planning in aircraft with uncertain navigational decision-making. Aircraft navigation can be safely accomplished by properly addressing the following: decision-making, obstacle perception, aircraft state estimation, and aircraft control. When in-flight failures or damage occur, rapid and precise decision-making under imprecise information is required in order to regain and maintain control of the aircraft. To achieve planned aircraft trajectory and complete safe landing, the uncertainties in system dynamics of the damaged aircraft need to be learned and incorporated at the level of motion planning. The damaged aircraft is simulated via a simplified kinematic model. The different sources and perspectives of uncertainties in the damage assessment process and post-failure trajectory planning are presented and classified. The decision-making process for an emergency motion planning and landing is developed via the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The objective of the trajectory planning is to arrive at a target position while maximizing the safety of the aircraft given uncertain conditions. Simulations are presented for an emergency motion planning and landing that takes into account aircraft dynamics, path complexity, distance to landing site, runway characteristics, and subjective human decision.

Long-Term Geomagnetically Induced Current Observations From New Zealand: Peak Current Estimates for Extreme Geomagnetic Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Rodger, Craig J.; Mac Manus, Daniel H.; Dalzell, Michael; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Clarke, Ellen; Petersen, Tanja; Clilverd, Mark A.; Divett, Tim

2017-11-01

Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) observations made in New Zealand over 14 years show induction effects associated with a rapidly varying horizontal magnetic field (dBH/dt) during geomagnetic storms. This study analyzes the GIC observations in order to estimate the impact of extreme storms as a hazard to the power system in New Zealand. Analysis is undertaken of GIC in transformer number six in Islington, Christchurch (ISL M6), which had the highest observed currents during the 6 November 2001 storm. Using previously published values of 3,000 nT/min as a representation of an extreme storm with 100 year return period, induced currents of 455 A were estimated for Islington (with the 95% confidence interval range being 155-605 A). For 200 year return periods using 5,000 nT/min, current estimates reach 755 A (confidence interval range 155-910 A). GIC measurements from the much shorter data set collected at transformer number 4 in Halfway Bush, Dunedin, (HWB T4), found induced currents to be consistently a factor of 3 higher than at Islington, suggesting equivalent extreme storm effects of 460-1,815 A (100 year return) and 460-2,720 A (200 year return). An estimate was undertaken of likely failure levels for single-phase transformers, such as HWB T4 when it failed during the 6 November 2001 geomagnetic storm, identifying that induced currents of 100 A can put such transformer types at risk of damage. Detailed modeling of the New Zealand power system is therefore required to put this regional analysis into a global context.

Polarimetric signatures indicative of severe storm development - the Pentecost event 2014

Science.gov (United States)

Troemel, Silke; Diederich, Malte; Evaristo, Raquel; Ryzhkov, Alexander; Simmer, Clemens

2015-04-01

The 2014 Pentecost weekend storms in Europe were a series of severe supercell storms which followed a heatwave in early June 2014, resulting from a Spanish plume synoptic weather pattern. Outbreaks of severe weather were reported from these storm developments with the worst damages occurring over the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia on 9 June, where the storm was described as one of the most violent in decades by the German weather service (DWD). During this event six fatalities, wind gusts up to 150km/h, hail and a flash flood in Düsseldorf has been reported. Monitoring and analysis of high-impact weather using weather radars of shorter wavelength (X- and C-bands) requires special methods, i.e. anomalous high attenuation and differential attenuation due to very large raindrops originating from melting large hail has to be investigated and corrected. During the Pentecost event a record breaking ZDR bias of up to -25dB has been observed. Different strategies for reliable attenuation correction and rainfall estimation for this extreme event are explored and will be presented. A national 3D composite of polarimetric moments covering Germany with 1km horizontal, 250m vertical, and 5 minutes temporal resolution has been generated. 10 C-band radars from the DWD radar network, recently upgraded to polarimetry, have been included. Meanie3D, a 3D scale space tracking algorithm, is applied to the composite to investigate the magnitudes and temporal development of the 3 fundamental steps of a storms lifecycle: 1) high values of differential reflectivity ZDR aloft first indicate a developing cell, 2) ZDR-columns (these are vertical columns of high differential reflectivity) then indicate the updraft zone of a cell in the mature state. The vertical extent of the ZDR-column is thus a measure of the strength of the updraft and for the ensuing rainfall enhancement. 3) The very first big drops reach the surface before the most intense rain begins. This is reflected by the

Collisions damage assessment of ships and jack-up rigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Shengming; Pedersen, P. Terndrup; Ocakli, Hasan

2015-01-01

Ship collision with offshore installations is one of the key concerns in design and assess of platforms performance and safety. This paper presents an analysis on collision energy and structural damage in ship and offshore platform collisions for various collision scenarios. The platform or rig...

Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Haibin; Davidson, Rachel A.; Apanasovich, Tatiyana V.

2008-01-01

This paper presents new statistical models that predict the number of hurricane- and ice storm-related electric power outages likely to occur in each 3 kmx3 km grid cell in a region. The models are based on a large database of recent outages experienced by three major East Coast power companies in six hurricanes and eight ice storms. A spatial generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM) approach was used in which spatial correlation is incorporated through random effects. Models were fitted using a composite likelihood approach and the covariance matrix was estimated empirically. A simulation study was conducted to test the model estimation procedure, and model training, validation, and testing were done to select the best models and assess their predictive power. The final hurricane model includes number of protective devices, maximum gust wind speed, hurricane indicator, and company indicator covariates. The final ice storm model includes number of protective devices, ice thickness, and ice storm indicator covariates. The models should be useful for power companies as they plan for future storms. The statistical modeling approach offers a new way to assess the reliability of electric power and other infrastructure systems in extreme events

Damage scenarios and an onboard support system for damaged ships

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Choi Jin

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Although a safety assessment of damaged ships, which considers environmental conditions such as waves and wind, is important in both the design and operation phases of ships, in Korea, rules or guidelines to conduct such assessments are not yet developed. However, NATO and European maritime societies have developed guidelines for a safety assessment. Therefore, it is required to develop rules or guidelines for safety assessments such as the Naval Ship Code (NSC of NATO. Before the safety assessment of a damaged ship can be performed, the available damage scenarios must be developed and the safety assessment criteria must be established. In this paper, the parameters related to damage by accidents are identified and categorized when developing damage scenarios. The need for damage safety assessment criteria is discussed, and an example is presented. In addition, a concept and specifications for the DB-based supporting system, which is used in the operation phases, are proposed.

Influence of Sea-Level Rise and Storms on Soil Accretion Rates in the Mangrove Forests of Everglades National Park, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Smoak, J. M.; Breithaupt, J.; Smith, T., III; Sanders, C. J.; Peterson, L. C.

2014-12-01

Mangrove forests provide a range of valuable ecosystem services including sequestering large quantities of organic carbon (OC) in their soils at rates higher than other forests. Whether or not mangrove soils continue to be a sink for OC will be determined by the mangrove ecosystems' response to climate change-induced stressors. The threats of rising sea level outpacing mangrove forest soil accretion and increased wave energy associated with this rise may become the primary climate change-induced stressors on mangrove ecosystems. The threat from wave energy is amplified during storm events, which could increasingly damage mangrove forests along the coastline. However, storms may enhance accretion rates at some sites due to delivery of storm surge material, which could increase the system's ability to keep pace with sea-level rise (SLR). To investigate these processes we measure soil accretion rates over the last 100 years (via 210Pb dating) within the mangrove forests of Everglades National Park, which are situated within the largest contiguous mangrove forest in North America. Accretion rates range from 2 to 2.8 mm per year for sites within 10 km of the Gulf of Mexico. These rates match (within error) or exceed SLR over the last 100 years. Sites farther inland than 10 km have slightly lower accretion rates. Throughout the system organic matter accumulation is the most important source material contributing to accretion. The more seaward sites also show an important contribution from carbonate material. Soil cores from the most seaward sites exhibited visual laminations and Ca peaks (determined via x-ray fluorescence). These are indicators of storm surge deposits. While higher sea level might produce more damage and loss of mangrove forest along open water (e.g., Gulf of Mexico), our findings suggest some sites will have enhanced accretion rates due to supplementation with storm surge material.

Correlation between Asian dust storms and worsening asthma in Western Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Watanabe, Masanari; Yamasaki, Akira; Burioka, Naoto; Kurai, Jun; Yoneda, Kazuhiko; Yoshida, Atsushi; Igishi, Tadashi; Fukuoka, Yasushi; Nakamoto, Masaki; Takeuchi, Hiromi; Suyama, Hisashi; Tatsukawa, Toshiyuki; Chikumi, Hiroki; Matsumoto, Shingo; Sako, Takanori; Hasegawa, Yasuyuki; Okazaki, Ryota; Horasaki, Kazunori; Shimizu, Eiji

2011-09-01

Severe wind storms during spring in East Asia, called Asian dust storms (ADS), have been assessed in the past for their effect on health in Asian countries. Our objective was to study the ADS association with asthma symptoms in adult patients in Japan. We designed a telephone survey to assess ADS influence on upper and lower respiratory, ocular and cutaneous symptoms in 98 patients with adult asthma from April to May 2007. Peak expiratory flow (PEF) was also measured from February to May. Worsening lower respiratory symptoms were noted by 22 of 98 patients during ADS in April, when Japanese cedar pollen levels also increased. During ADS in May, however, Japanese cedar and cypress pollen levels were not elevated, 11 patients had worsening of lower respiratory symptoms. None required emergency treatment for the exacerbation. Lower respiratory symptoms worsening most were cough and sputum; this was more common in patients with allergic rhinitis or atopy than in those without (P storm. We found that ADS aggravated lower respiratory symptoms in adult patients with asthma, but this influence was mild.

Final Environmental Assessment Airfield Storm Drainage System Repair Joint Base Andrews-Naval Air Facility Washington, MD

Science.gov (United States)

2015-06-01

the airfield. • Phase 1–September 2015 to October 2016: Replace or rehabilitate storm drain pipes between the West Runway and Taxiway Whiskey...activities, landfills , and other support and training operations have affected groundwater and surface waters at JBA with metals, volatile organic...the airfield.  Phase 1: September 2015 to October 2016: Replace or rehabilitate storm drain pipes between the West Runway and Taxiway Whiskey

Storm Identification, Tracking and Forecasting Using High-Resolution Images of Short-Range X-Band Radar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sajid Shah

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Rain nowcasting is an essential part of weather monitoring. It plays a vital role in human life, ranging from advanced warning systems to scheduling open air events and tourism. A nowcasting system can be divided into three fundamental steps, i.e., storm identification, tracking and nowcasting. The main contribution of this work is to propose procedures for each step of the rain nowcasting tool and to objectively evaluate the performances of every step, focusing on two-dimension data collected from short-range X-band radars installed in different parts of Italy. This work presents the solution of previously unsolved problems in storm identification: first, the selection of suitable thresholds for storm identification; second, the isolation of false merger (loosely-connected storms; and third, the identification of a high reflectivity sub-storm within a large storm. The storm tracking step of the existing tools, such as TITANand SCIT, use only up to two storm attributes, i.e., center of mass and area. It is possible to use more attributes for tracking. Furthermore, the contribution of each attribute in storm tracking is yet to be investigated. This paper presents a novel procedure called SALdEdA (structure, amplitude, location, eccentricity difference and areal difference for storm tracking. This work also presents the contribution of each component of SALdEdA in storm tracking. The second order exponential smoothing strategy is used for storm nowcasting, where the growth and decay of each variable of interest is considered to be linear. We evaluated the major steps of our method. The adopted techniques for automatic threshold calculation are assessed with a 97% goodness. False merger and sub-storms within a cluster of storms are successfully handled. Furthermore, the storm tracking procedure produced good results with an accuracy of 99.34% for convective events and 100% for stratiform events.

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Surge Results. Report 5: Intermediate Submission No. 3

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-01

Vickery, P., D. Wadhera, A. Cox, V. Cardone , J. Hanson, and B. Blanton. 2012. Coastal storm surge analysis: Storm forcing (Intermediate Submission No...CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Jeffrey L. Hanson, Michael F. Forte, Brian Blanton

The transforming perception of a regional geohazard between coastal defence and mediated discourse on global warming: Storm surges in Hamburg, Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Neverla, I.; Lüthje, C.

2010-03-01

The term regional geohazard is used for a major geophysical risk which can lead to a natural disaster. The effects will be strictly located to a specific region. It is expected but still not proven that global warming will intensify weather extremes and thus the number of regional geohazards will increase. Regional geohazards are not dangerous per se, but from the perspective of human being certain weather and nature extremes are considered dangerous as they impose damage on human beings and their belongings. Therefore the media often call them ‘natural disaster’ and as a matter of fact it seems to be a ‘must’ - according to theory and practice of news selections - that media report on any natural disaster that occur in their region. Moreover, media even report on geohazards in any other region as soon as these events seem to have any general impact. The major geophysical risk along the coast of the North Sea is storm surges. A long list of historical disasters has deeply engraved the ubiquity of this hazard into the collective memory and habitus of the local population. Not only coastal region is concerned by this danger but also the megacity of Hamburg. Hamburg is the second-largest city in Germany and the sixth-largest city in the European Union. The Hamburg Metropolitan Region has more than 4.3 million inhabitants. The estuary of the river Elbe extends from Cuxhaven (coast) to Hamburg a distance of about 130 km. Hamburg has often been subject to storm surges with significant damages. But after the storm flood in 1855 for more than 100 years until 1962 no severe storm surge happened. The Big Flood in the night from February 16 to February 17 1962 destroyed the homes of about 60.000 people. The death toll amounted to 315 in the city of Hamburg, where the storm surge had a traumatic impact and was followed by political decisions driven by the believe in technological solutions. After 1962 massive investments into the coastal defence were made and dikes

Impedance-based damage assessment using piezoelectric sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Rim, Mi-Sun; Yoo, Seung-Jae; Lee, In; Song, Jae-Hoon; Yang, Jae-Won

2011-04-01

Recently structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are being focused because they make it possible to assess the health of structures at real-time in many application fields such as aircraft, aerospace, civil and so on. Piezoelectric materials are widely used for sensors of SHM system to monitor damage of critical parts such as bolted joints. Bolted joints could be loosened by vibration, thermal cycling, shock, corrosion, and they cause serious mechanical failures. In this paper, impedance-based method using piezoelectric sensors was applied for real-time SHM. A steel beam specimen fastened by bolts was tested, and polymer type piezoelectric materials, PVDFs were used for sensors to monitor the condition of bolted joint connections. When structure has some damage, for example loose bolts, the impedance of PVDF sensors showed different tendency with normal structure which has no loose bolts. In the case of loose bolts, impedance values are decreased and admittance values are increased.

Great magnetic storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsurutani, B.T.; Yen Te Lee; Tang, F.; Gonzalez, W.D.

1992-01-01

The five largest magnetic storms that occurred between 1971 and 1986 are studied to determine their solar and interplanetary causes. All of the events are found to be associated with high speed solar wind streams led by collisionless shocks. The high speed streams are clearly related to identifiable solar flares. It is found that (1) it is the extreme values of the southward interplanetary magnetic fields rather than solar wind speeds that are the primary causes of great magnetic storms, (2) shocked and draped sheath fields preceding the driver gas (magnetic cloud) are at least as effective in causing the onset of great magnetic storms (3 of 5 events ) as the strong fields within the driver gas itself, and (3) precursor southward fields ahead of the high speed streams allow the shock compression mechanism (item 2) to be particularly geoeffective

46 CFR 169.329 - Storm rails.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 169.329 Section 169.329 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) NAUTICAL SCHOOLS SAILING SCHOOL VESSELS Construction and Arrangement Rails and Guards § 169.329 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

Natural resource damage assessment models for Great Lakes, coastal, and marine environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

French, D.P.; Reed, M.

1993-01-01

A computer model of the physical fates, biological effects, and economic damages resulting from releases of oil and other hazardous materials has been developed by Applied Science Associates to be used in Type A natural resource damage assessments under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Natural resource damage assessment models for great lakes environments and for coastal and marine environments will become available. A coupled geographical information system allows gridded representation of complex coastal boundaries, variable bathymetry, shoreline types, and multiple biological habitats. The physical and biological models are three dimensional. Direct mortality from toxic concentrations and oiling, impacts of habitat loss, and food web losses are included in the model. Estimation of natural resource damages is based both on the lost value of injured resources and on the costs of restoring or replacing those resources. The models are implemented on a personal computer, with a VGA graphical user interface. Following public review, the models will become a formal part of the US regulatory framework. The models are programmed in a modular and generic fashion, to facilitate transportability and application to new areas. The model has several major components. Physical fates and biological effects submodels estimate impacts or injury resulting from a spill. The hydrodynamic submodel calculates currents that transport contaminant(s) or organisms. The compensable value submodel values injuries to help assess damages. The restoration submodel determines what restoration actions will most cost-effectively reduce injuries as measured by compensable values. Injury and restoration costs are assessed for each of a series of habitats (environments) affected by the spill. Environmental, chemical, and biological databases supply required information to the model for computing fates and effects (injury)

46 CFR 72.40-10 - Storm rails.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 72.40-10 Section 72.40-10 Shipping COAST... and Guards § 72.40-10 Storm rails. (a) Suitable storm rails shall be installed in all passageways and at the deckhouse sides where passengers or crew might have normal access. Storm rails shall be...

Thyroid Storm Precipitated by Duodenal Ulcer Perforation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shoko Natsuda

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Thyroid storm is a rare and life-threatening complication of thyrotoxicosis that requires prompt treatment. Thyroid storm is also known to be associated with precipitating events. The simultaneous treatment of thyroid storm and its precipitant, when they are recognized, in a patient is recommended; otherwise such disorders, including thyroid storm, can exacerbate each other. Here we report the case of a thyroid storm patient (a 55-year-old Japanese male complicated with a perforated duodenal ulcer. The patient was successfully treated with intensive treatment for thyroid storm and a prompt operation. Although it is believed that peptic ulcer rarely coexists with hyperthyroidism, among patients with thyroid storm, perforation of a peptic ulcer has been reported as one of the causes of fatal outcome. We determined that surgical intervention was required in this patient, reported despite ongoing severe thyrotoxicosis, and reported herein a successful outcome.

Thyroid storm precipitated by duodenal ulcer perforation.

Science.gov (United States)

Natsuda, Shoko; Nakashima, Yomi; Horie, Ichiro; Ando, Takao; Kawakami, Atsushi

2015-01-01

Thyroid storm is a rare and life-threatening complication of thyrotoxicosis that requires prompt treatment. Thyroid storm is also known to be associated with precipitating events. The simultaneous treatment of thyroid storm and its precipitant, when they are recognized, in a patient is recommended; otherwise such disorders, including thyroid storm, can exacerbate each other. Here we report the case of a thyroid storm patient (a 55-year-old Japanese male) complicated with a perforated duodenal ulcer. The patient was successfully treated with intensive treatment for thyroid storm and a prompt operation. Although it is believed that peptic ulcer rarely coexists with hyperthyroidism, among patients with thyroid storm, perforation of a peptic ulcer has been reported as one of the causes of fatal outcome. We determined that surgical intervention was required in this patient, reported despite ongoing severe thyrotoxicosis, and reported herein a successful outcome.

46 CFR 116.920 - Storm rails.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 116.920 Section 116.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS CARRYING MORE THAN 150... and Guards § 116.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be installed where necessary...

46 CFR 177.920 - Storm rails.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 177.920 Section 177.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS (UNDER 100 GROSS TONS) CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENT Rails and Guards § 177.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

46 CFR 127.320 - Storm rails.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 127.320 Section 127.320 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENTS Rails and Guards § 127.320 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails must be installed in each passageway and at...

Examine Precipitation Extremes in Terms of Storm Properties

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.; Chen, L.; Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.

2017-12-01

The increasing potential of the extreme precipitation is of significant societal concern. Changes in precipitation extremes have been mostly examined using extreme precipitation indices or Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) analyses, which often fail to reveal the characteristics of an integrated precipitation event. In this study, we will examine the precipitation extremes in terms of storm properties including storm duration, storm intensity, total storm precipitation, and within storm pattern. Single storm event will be identified and storm properties will be determined based on the hourly precipitation time series in the selected locations in southwest United States. Three types of extreme precipitation event will be recognized using the criteria as (1) longest storm duration; (2) Highest storm intensity; and (3) largest total precipitation over a storm. The trend and variation of extreme precipitation events will be discussed for each criterion. Based on the comparisons of the characteristics of extreme precipitation events identified using different criteria, we will provide guidelines for choosing proper criteria for extreme precipitation analysis in specific location.

Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei

2012-12-30

Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tornado damage at the Grand Gulf, Mississippi nuclear power plant site: aerial and ground surveys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujita, T.T.; McDonald, J.R.

1978-05-01

A tornado struck the Grand Gulf nuclear power generating station, Port Gibson, Mississippi, about 11:30 p.m. on April 17, 1978. Storm damage investigators from the University of Chicago and Texas Tech University were dispatched to survey the damage. The meteorological situation that spawned the Grand Gulf tornado and seven others in the area is discussed. Aerial surveys of the entire damage path and detailed surveys of the plant site are presented. An engineering evaluation of the damage is also presented based primarily on information gained from detailed ground surveys

Local time and cutoff rigidity dependences of storm time increase associated with geomagnetic storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kudo, S.; Wada, M.; Tanskanen, P.; Kodama, M.

1987-01-01

The cosmic ray increases due to considerable depressions of cosmic ray cutoff rigidity during large geomagnetic storms are investigated. Data from a worldwide network of cosmic ray neutron monitors are analyzed for 17 geomagnetic storms which occurred in the quiet phase of the solar activity cycle during 1966-1978. As expected from the longitudinal asymmetry of the low-altitude geomagnetic field during large geomagnetic storms, a significant local time dependence of the increment in the cosmic ray during large geomagnetic storms, a significant local time dependence of the increment in the cosmic ray intensity is obtained. It is shown that the maximum phases of the local time dependence occur at around 1800 LT and that the amplitudes of the local time dependence are consistent with presently available theoretical estimates. The dependence of the increment on the cutoff rigidity is obtained for both the local time dependent part and the local time independent part of the storm time increase. The local time independent part, excluding the randomizing local time dependent part, shows a clear-cut dependence on cutoff rigidity which is consistent with theoretical estimates

46 CFR 108.221 - Storm rails.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 108.221 Section 108.221 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Construction and Arrangement Rails § 108.221 Storm rails. Each unit must have a storm rail in the following...

Er Storm P. en hardcore vagabond?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sortkær, Allan

2002-01-01

Den vagabond, som vi kender som Storm P.s, er ikke en figur, der kom fra en guddommelig inspiration eller deslige. Den var en allerede velkendt figur, før Storm P. tog den til sig, og figuren gennemgik radikale forandringer gennem Storm P.s liv: Krads social satire, hypervoldelig eller hyggelig...

Geoelectric hazard assessment: the differences of geoelectric responses during magnetic storms within common physiographic zones

Science.gov (United States)

Cuttler, Stephen W.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Swidinsky, Andrei

2018-03-01

Geomagnetic field data obtained through the INTERMAGNET program are convolved with with magnetotelluric surface impedance from four EarthScope USArray sites to estimate the geoelectric variations throughout the duration of a magnetic storm. A duration of time from June 22, 2016, to June 25, 2016, is considered which encompasses a magnetic storm of moderate size recorded at the Brandon, Manitoba and Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetic observatories over 3 days. Two impedance sites were chosen in each case which represent different responses while being within close geographic proximity and within the same physiographic zone. This study produces estimated time series of the geoelectric field throughout the duration of a magnetic storm, providing an understanding of how the geoelectric field differs across small geographic distances within the same physiographic zone. This study shows that the geoelectric response of two sites within 200 km of one another can differ by up to two orders of magnitude (4484 mV/km at one site and 41 mV/km at another site 125 km away). This study demonstrates that the application of uniform 1-dimensional conductivity models of the subsurface to wide geographic regions is insufficient to predict the geoelectric hazard at a given site. This necessitates that an evaluation of the 3-dimensional conductivity distribution at a given location is necessary to produce a reliable estimation of how the geoelectric field evolves over the course of a magnetic storm.

Geoelectric hazard assessment: the differences of geoelectric responses during magnetic storms within common physiographic zones

Science.gov (United States)

Cuttler, Stephen W.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Swidinsky, Andrei

2018-01-01

Geomagnetic field data obtained through the INTERMAGNET program are convolved with with magnetotelluric surface impedance from four EarthScope USArray sites to estimate the geoelectric variations throughout the duration of a magnetic storm. A duration of time from June 22, 2016, to June 25, 2016, is considered which encompasses a magnetic storm of moderate size recorded at the Brandon, Manitoba and Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetic observatories over 3 days. Two impedance sites were chosen in each case which represent different responses while being within close geographic proximity and within the same physiographic zone. This study produces estimated time series of the geoelectric field throughout the duration of a magnetic storm, providing an understanding of how the geoelectric field differs across small geographic distances within the same physiographic zone. This study shows that the geoelectric response of two sites within 200 km of one another can differ by up to two orders of magnitude (4484 mV/km at one site and 41 mV/km at another site 125 km away). This study demonstrates that the application of uniform 1-dimensional conductivity models of the subsurface to wide geographic regions is insufficient to predict the geoelectric hazard at a given site. This necessitates that an evaluation of the 3-dimensional conductivity distribution at a given location is necessary to produce a reliable estimation of how the geoelectric field evolves over the course of a magnetic storm.

Vibration Based Damage Assessment of a Civil Engineering Structures using a Neural Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Rytter, A.

In this paper the possibility of using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network trained with the Backpropagation Algorith as a non-destructive damage assessment technique to locate and quantify a damage in Civil Engineering structures is investigated. Since artificial neural networks are proving...

Extreme Geomagnetic Storms – 1868–2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Lefèvre, L.; Dumbović, M.

2016-01-01

presents our investigation of the corresponding solar eventsand their characteristics. The storms were selected based on their intensity in the aa index,which constitutes the longest existing continuous series of geomagnetic activity. They areanalyzed statistically in the context of more well...... occurring in May 1921 and the Quebec storm from March 1989. We identifykey characteristics of the storms by combining several different available data sources, listsof storm sudden commencements (SSCs) signifying occurrence of interplanetary shocks,solar wind in-situ measurements, neutron monitor data...... %), Forbushdecreases (100 %), and energetic solar proton events (70 %). A quantitative comparison ofthese associations relative to less intense storms is also presented. Most notably, we findthat most often the extreme storms are characterized by a complexity that is associated with multiple, often interacting, solar...

Assessment of Post-Earthquake Damage: St. Salvatore Church in Acquapagana, Central Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gessica Sferrazza Papa

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This article proposes a multidisciplinary approach for the assessment of seismic damage from the perspective of conservation and prevention. A comparison of the state of damage has been carried out in a case study, St. Salvatore church in Acquapagana (MC, as an example of church, which underwent two important seismic events in the Central Italy area, the 1997 and the 2016 earthquakes. The comparison of the state of damage passes through the following stages: (a the territorial seismic overview; (b the historical description and material analysis; (c the identification of macro-elements with activated damage mechanisms; (d the comparison between the two seismic events both from a territorial- and building-scale perspective. This work puts together the archived and the on-site survey data with those elaborated starting from seismogenic information, available from the National Seismological Institute, and it provides a strategy also for other similar conditions. This work is to be considered a contribution to a wider study that could be carried out in the areas hit by the 2016 earthquake. It could also represent a way to collect documentation in the post-earthquake phase, improving the effectiveness of procedures currently applied to the first level of damage assessment.

Probability-based assessment and maintenance of welded joints damaged by fatigue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cremona, C.; Lukic, M.

1998-01-01

This paper presents a probabilistic reliability assessment procedure for steel components damaged by fatigue. The study combines the structural reliability theory with a maintenance strategy. The fatigue assessment model is based on a modelisation of the fatigue phenomenon issued from the principles of fracture mechanics theory. The safety margin includes the crack growth propagation and allows to treat fatigue damage in a general manner. Damaging cycles and non damaging cycles are distinguished. The sensitivity study of the different parameters shows that some variables can be taken as deterministic. Applications are made on a welded joint 'stiffener/bottom-plate' of a typical steel bridge. The model is then used for taking into account inspection results. Non destructive inspection (NDI) techniques are also used for updating failure probabilities. The results show their ability to be inserted in a maintenance strategy for optimizing the next inspection time. This has led to define cost functions related to the total maintenance cost; this cost is then minimized for determining the optimal next inspection time. An example of welded joint cracked by fatigue highlights the different concepts. The approach presented in the paper is not only restrained to fatigue problems, but can be applied to a wide variety of degrading phenomena. (orig.)

Electrical storm: clinical manifestations and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Littmann, L; Rennyson, S L

2007-10-01

Electrical storm is the clustering of hemodynamically destabilizing ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation that typically requires multiple electrical cardioversions or defibrillations within a 24-hour period. Electrical storm is frequently seen in the acute phase of myocardial infarction, in patients with the genetic arrhythmia syndromes, and in patients with implanted cardioverters-defibrillators. The evaluation and management should focus on the immediate suppression of the arrhythmia, a search for possible reversible causes, and attempts to prevent recurrences. In this review we present the most common conditions associated with electrical storm, therapeutic options for suppression of electrical storm, and new investigational techniques emerging for the treatment of electrical storm in refractory cases. The management of this life threatening arrhythmia typically requires the coordinated efforts of emergency medicine, critical care, cardiology, cardiac electrophysiology, and pacemaker experts.

Enhancing national Daily Landslide Hazard Assessments through inter-agency collaboration; lessons learned from storm Desmond (UK)/Synne (Norway), Dec 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Boje, Søren; Devoli, Graziella; Sund, Monica; Freeborough, Katy; Dijkstra, Tom; Reeves, Helen; Banks, Vanessa

2016-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and the British Geological Survey (BGS) compile daily landslide hazard assessments (DLHA) in their respective countries. NVE DLHA has been operational since 2013 and provides national daily assessments based on quantitative thresholds related to daily hydro-meteorological forecasts coupled with qualitative expert analysis of these forecasts. The BGS DLHA has been operational since 2012 and this is predominantly based on expert evaluation of antecedent hydro-meteorological conditions and triggering rainfall across Great Britain (GB). In both cases, the hydro-meteorological evaluation is coupled with observations derived from proprietary datasets on landslide events and landslide potential in order to specify, and limit, the spatial extent of the potentially impacted area. However, the DLHA are strongly driven by hydro-meteorological forecasts. In December 2015, a large extra-tropical cyclone developed over the Atlantic and delivered record-breaking precipitation over parts of the UK and Norway. The meteorological services started naming these events to enhance public uptake and awareness and the storms were named as Desmond (the 4th large storm in 2015/16 in the UK) and Synne (the 5th storm in 2015 in Norway). Desmond arrived in earnest on the 5th of December and brought intense precipitation and strong winds over a 48-hour period. In Cumbria (NW-England) record precipitation was measured (341.4 mm in 24-hour at Honister Pass which is more than twice the monthly average), with 48-hour accumulations exceeding 400 mm. Synne arrived shortly after in Norway and was also characterised by excessive rainfall of 140 mm in 24-hour, 236 mm in 48-hour and 299 mm in 72-hour at Maudal, SW-Norway. Both organisations managed to issue appropriate advance warnings, operating individually. In Norway, warnings were issued some 2 days in advance with a yellow level communicated on Friday 4th and an orange warning the 5th and 6

Progress in the Study of Coastal Storm Deposits

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, Haixian; Huang, Guangqing; Fu, Shuqing; Qian, Peng

2018-05-01

Numerous studies have been carried out to identify storm deposits and decipher storm-induced sedimentary processes in coastal and shallow-marine areas. This study aims to provide an in-depth review on the study of coastal storm deposits from the following five aspects. 1) The formation of storm deposits is a function of hydrodynamic and sedimentary processes under the constraints of local geological and ecological factors. Many questions remain to demonstrate the genetic links between storm-related processes and a variety of resulting deposits such as overwash deposits, underwater deposits and hummocky cross-stratification (HCS). Future research into the formation of storm deposits should combine flume experiments, field observations and numerical simulations, and make full use of sediment source tracing methods. 2) Recently there has been rapid growth in the number of studies utilizing sediment provenance analysis to investigate the source of storm deposits. The development of source tracing techniques, such as mineral composition, magnetic susceptibility, microfossil and geochemical property, has allowed for better understanding of the depositional processes and environmental changes associated with coastal storms. 3) The role of extreme storms in the sedimentation of low-lying coastal wetlands with diverse ecosystem services has also drawn a great deal of attention. Many investigations have attempted to quantify widespread land loss, vertical marsh sediment accumulation and wetland elevation change induced by major hurricanes. 4) Paleostorm reconstructions based on storm sedimentary proxies have shown many advantages over the instrumental records and historic documents as they allow for the reconstruction of storm activities on millennial or longer time scales. Storm deposits having been used to establish proxies mainly include beach ridges and shelly cheniers, coral reefs, estuary-deltaic storm sequences and overwash deposits. Particularly over the past few

The role of damage analysis in the assessment of service-exposed components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bendick, W.; Muesch, H.; Weber, H.

1987-01-01

Components in power stations are subjected to service conditions under which creep processes take place limiting the component's lifetime by material exhaustion. To ensure a safe and economic plant operation it is necessary to get information about the exhaustion grade of single components as well as of the whole plant. A comprehensive lifetime assessment requests the complete knowledge of the service parameters, the component's deformtion behavior, and the change in material properties caused by longtime exposure to high service temperatures. A basis of evaluation is given by: 1) determination of material exhaustion by calculation, 2) investigation of the material properties, and 3) damage analysis. The purpose of this report is to show the role which damage analysis can play in the assessment of service-exposed components. As an example the test results of a damaged pipe bend will be discussed. (orig./MM)

Space weather and dangerous phenomena on the Earth: principles of great geomagnetic storms forcasting by online cosmic ray data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. I. Dorman

2005-11-01

Full Text Available According to NOAA space weather scales, geomagnetic storms of scales G5 (3-h index of geomagnetic activity Kp=9, G4 (Kp=8 and G3 (Kp=7 are dangerous for satellites, aircrafts, and even for technology on the ground (influence on power systems, on spacecraft operations, on HF radio-communications and others. We show on the basis of statistical data, that these geomagnetic storms, mostly accompanied by cosmic ray (CR Forbush-decreases, are also dangerous for people's health on spacecraft and on the ground (increasing the rate of myocardial infarctions, brain strokes and car accident road traumas. To prevent these serious damages it is very important to forecast dangerous geomagnetic storms. Here we consider the principles of using CR measurements for this aim: to forecast at least 10-15h before the sudden commencement of great geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-decreases, by using neutron monitor muon telescope worldwide network online hourly data. We show that for this forecast one may use the following features of CR intensity variations connected with geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-decreases: 1 CR pre-increase, 2 CR pre-decrease, 3 CR fluctuations, 4 change in the 3-D CR anisotropy.

A superposed epoch analysis of geomagnetic storms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. R. Taylor

1994-06-01

Full Text Available A superposed epoch analysis of geomagnetic storms has been undertaken. The storms are categorised via their intensity (as defined by the Dst index. Storms have also been classified here as either storm sudden commencements (SSCs or storm gradual commencements (SGCs, that is all storms which did not begin with a sudden commencement. The prevailing solar wind conditions defined by the parameters solar wind speed (vsw, density (ρsw and pressure (Psw and the total field and the components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF during the storms in each category have been investigated by a superposed epoch analysis. The southward component of the IMF, appears to be the controlling parameter for the generation of small SGCs (-100 nT< minimum Dst ≤ -50 nT for ≥ 4 h, but for SSCs of the same intensity solar wind pressure is dominant. However, for large SSCs (minimum Dst ≤ -100 nT for ≥ 4 h the solar wind speed is the controlling parameter. It is also demonstrated that for larger storms magnetic activity is not solely driven by the accumulation of substorm activity, but substantial energy is directly input via the dayside. Furthermore, there is evidence that SSCs are caused by the passage of a coronal mass ejection, whereas SGCs result from the passage of a high speed/ slow speed coronal stream interface. Storms are also grouped by the sign of Bz during the first hour epoch after the onset. The sign of Bz at t = +1 h is the dominant sign of the Bz for ~24 h before the onset. The total energy released during storms for which Bz was initially positive is, however, of the same order as for storms where Bz was initially negative.

A paradigm study for assessment of phenylalanine's damage under arc-discharge irradiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ke Zhigang [Laboratory of Ion Beam Bio-engineering, Institute of Plasma Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 1126, Shushanhu Road 350, Hefei 230031 (China); Huang Qing, E-mail: huangq@ipp.ac.c [Laboratory of Ion Beam Bio-engineering, Institute of Plasma Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 1126, Shushanhu Road 350, Hefei 230031 (China); Su Xi; Jiang Jiang; Wang Xiangqin; Yu Zengliang [Laboratory of Ion Beam Bio-engineering, Institute of Plasma Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 1126, Shushanhu Road 350, Hefei 230031 (China)

2010-05-15

Energetic ions induce important biological effects and the research into radiolysis of amino acids can help to clarify radiolysis of proteins. For this purpose, arc-discharge induced radiolysis of the benzyl-containing aromatic amino acid phenylalanine in aqueous solution was studied and the damage was assessed quantitatively. The energetic ions were produced by arc-discharge in nitrogen and argon atmosphere. The arc-discharge induced chemical reactions of the biomolecule in aqueous solution were detected and analyzed by means of UV-Vis absorption, fluorescence, Fourier transformation infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Based on the multiple spectroscopic approach, the damage can be evaluated in a more reliable and convenient way. The fluorescence analysis in this case appears to be a more direct indicator for the assessment of damage, where it reveals that the damage increases with the irradiation time exponentially. On the contrary, the 'plateau region' or 'saddle-shape' apparently shown both in our rough absorption analysis and ninhydrin reaction test, similar to the previously reported feature of the dose effect for low-energy-ion induced damage, may be just a consequence with varied reactions and processes involved at different stages. This work thus demonstrated that application of appropriate combination of spectroscopic tools can effectively dissect the diversity of the radiolysis reaction system and assess the biomolecular damage properly.

Storm water permitting for oil and gas facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

de Blanc, P.C.

1991-01-01

After several false starts, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published new federal storm water regulations in the November 16, 1990 Federal Register. These regulations identify facilities which must apply for a storm water permit and detail permit application requirements. The regulations appear at 40 CFR 122 Subpart B and became effective December 17, 1990. An outline of these regulations and their applicability to oil and gas facilities is presented. They are: facilities which require a storm water permit; types of storm water permits; permit application deadlines; permit application forms; facilities with existing storm water permits; storm water permit application data requirements; storm water sampling and analysis requirements; and EPA contacts for additional information

Monitoring of Damage in Sunflower and Maize Parcels Using Radar and Optical Time Series Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

György Surek

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to monitor the temporal behaviour of geometrical structural change of cropland affected by four different types of damage: weed infection, Western Corn Rootworm (WCR, storm damage, and drought by time series of different type of optical and quad-pol RADARSAT2 data. Based on our results it is established that ragweed infection in sunflower can be well identified by evaluation of radar (mid-June and optical (mid-August satellite images. Effect of drought in sunflower is well recognizable by spectral indices derived from optical as well as “I”-component of Shannon entropy (SEI from radar satellite images acquired during the first decade of July. Evaluation of radar and optical satellite images acquired between the last decade of July and mid-August proven to be the most efficient for detecting damages in maize fields caused by either by WCR or storm. Components of Shannon entropy are proven to have significant role in identification. Our project demonstrates the potential in integrated usage of polarimetric radar and optical satellite images for monitoring several types of agricultural damage.

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Pantillon

2017-10-01

Full Text Available New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995–2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2–4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

Application of petrographic examination techniques to the assessment of fire-damaged concrete and masonry structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ingham, Jeremy P.

2009-01-01

The number of building fires has doubled over the last 50 years. There has never been a greater need for structures to be assessed for fire damage to ensure safety and enable appropriate repairs to be planned. Fortunately, even after a severe fire, concrete and masonry structures are generally capable of being repaired rather than demolished. By allowing direct examination of microcracking and mineralogical changes, petrographic examination has become widely used to determine the depth of fire damage for reinforced concrete elements. Petrographic examination can also be applied to fire-damaged masonry structures built of materials such as stone, brick and mortar. Petrography can ensure accurate detection of damaged geomaterials, which provides cost savings during building repair and increased safety reassurance. This paper comprises a review of the role of petrography in fire damage assessments, drawing on a range of actual fire damage investigations.

No Calm After the Storm: A Systematic Review of Human Health Following Flood and Storm Disasters.

Science.gov (United States)

Saulnier, Dell D; Brolin Ribacke, Kim; von Schreeb, Johan

2017-10-01

Introduction How the burden of disease varies during different phases after floods and after storms is essential in order to guide a medical response, but it has not been well-described. The objective of this review was to elucidate the health problems following flood and storm disasters. A literature search of the databases Medline (US National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA); Cinahl (EBSCO Information Services; Ipswich, Massachusetts USA); Global Health (EBSCO Information Services; Ipswich, Massachusetts USA); Web of Science Core Collection (Thomson Reuters; New York, New York USA); Embase (Elsevier; Amsterdam, Netherlands); and PubMed (National Center for Biotechnology Information, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA) was conducted in June 2015 for English-language research articles on morbidity or mortality and flood or storm disasters. Articles on mental health, interventions, and rescue or health care workers were excluded. Data were extracted from articles that met the eligibility criteria and analyzed by narrative synthesis. The review included 113 studies. Poisonings, wounds, gastrointestinal infections, and skin or soft tissue infections all increased after storms. Gastrointestinal infections were more frequent after floods. Leptospirosis and diabetes-related complications increased after both. The majority of changes occurred within four weeks of floods or storms. Health changes differently after floods and after storms. There is a lack of data on the health effects of floods alone, long-term changes in health, and the strength of the association between disasters and health problems. This review highlights areas of consideration for medical response and the need for high-quality, systematic research in this area. Saulnier DD , Brolin Ribacke K , von Schreeb J . No calm after the storm: a systematic review of human health following flood and storm disasters. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):568-579.

Assessing the physical vulnerability of check dams through an empirical damage index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Dell'Agnese

2013-06-01

Full Text Available A comprehensive analysis of flood risk in mountain streams has to include an assessment of the vulnerability of the protection systems, in addition to an assessment of the vulnerability of the constructed environment on alluvial fans and floodplains. Structures forming the protection systems are of a dual nature, i.e. they are designed to mitigate natural process-related hazards and, on the other hand, are prone to be damaged during their lifecycle by the same processes they should mitigate. Therefore, their effectiveness declines over time. Hence, the knowledge of how effectively control structures perform is essential for risk management. A procedure was developed to assess the physical vulnerability of check dams based on empirical evidence collected in South Tyrol, Northern Italy. A damage index defined on pre- and postevent comparisons of check dam conditions was evaluated for 362 structures in 18 mountain streams along with the relevant processes and the structural characteristics affecting it. Although the available dataset did not allow conclusive functional relationships between damage index and impact variables to be established, it was possible to assess the average expected residual functionality of check dams according to structure characteristics, and event type and intensity. These results may help plan appropriate check dam maintenance.

Statistical Relationship between Sawtooth Oscillations and Geomagnetic Storms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae-Hun Kim

2008-06-01

Full Text Available We have investigated a statistical relationship between sawtooth oscillations and geomagnetic storms during 2000-2004. First of all we selected a total of 154 geomagnetic storms based on the Dst index, and distinguished between different drivers such as Coronal Mass Ejection (CME and Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR. Also, we identified a total of 48 sawtooth oscillation events based on geosynchronous energetic particle data for the same 2000-2004 period. We found that out of the 154 storms identified, 47 storms indicated the presence of sawtooth oscillations. Also, all but one sawtooth event identified occurred during a geomagnetic storm interval. It was also found that sawtooth oscillation events occur more frequently for storms driven by CME (˜62% than for storms driven by CIR (˜30%. In addition, sawtooth oscillations occurred mainly (˜82% in the main phase of storms for CME-driven storms while they occurred mostly (˜78% during the storm recovery phase for CIR-driven storms. Next we have examined the average characteristics of the Bz component of IMF, and solar wind speed, which were the main components for driving geomagnetic storm. We found that for most of the sawtooth events, the IMF Bz corresponds to --15 to 0 nT and the solar wind speed was in the range of 400˜700 km/s. We found that there was a weak tendency that the number of teeth for a given sawtooth event interval was proportional to the southward IMF Bz magnitude.

The StoRM Certification Process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ronchieri, Elisabetta; Dibenedetto, Michele; Zappi, Riccardo; Dal Pra, Stefano; Aiftimiei, Cristina; Traldi, Sergio

2011-01-01

StoRM is an implementation of the SRM interface version 2.2 used by all Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiments and non-LHC experiments as SRM endpoint at different Tiers of Worldwide LHC Computing Grid. The complexity of its services and the demand of experiments and users are increasing day by day. The growing needs in terms of service level by the StoRM users communities make it necessary to design and implement a more effective testing procedure to quickly and reliably validate new StoRM candidate releases both in code side (for example via test units, and schema valuator) and in final product software (for example via functionality tests, and stress tests). Testing software service is a very critical quality activity performed in a very ad-hoc informal manner by developers, testers and users of StoRM up to now. In this paper, we describe the certification mechanism used by StoRM team to increase the robustness and reliability of the StoRM services. Various typologies of tests, such as quality, installation, configuration, functionality, stress and performance, defined on the base of a set of use cases gathered as consequence of the collaboration among the StoRM team, experiments and users, are illustrated. Each typology of test is either increased or decreased easily from time to time. The proposed mechanism is based on a new configurable testsuite. This is executed by the certification team, who is responsible for validating the release candidate package as well as bug fix (or patch) package, given a certain testbed that considers all possible use cases. In correspondence of each failure, the package is given back to developers waiting for validating a new package.

Grinding damage assessment for CAD-CAM restorative materials.

Science.gov (United States)

Curran, Philippe; Cattani-Lorente, Maria; Anselm Wiskott, H W; Durual, Stéphane; Scherrer, Susanne S

2017-03-01

To assess surface/subsurface damage after grinding with diamond discs on five CAD-CAM restorative materials and to estimate potential losses in strength based on crack size measurements of the generated damage. The materials tested were: Lithium disilicate (LIT) glass-ceramic (e.max CAD), leucite glass-ceramic (LEU) (Empress CAD), feldspar ceramic (VM2) (Vita Mark II), feldspar ceramic-resin infiltrated (EN) (Enamic) and a composite reinforced with nano ceramics (LU) (Lava Ultimate). Specimens were cut from CAD-CAM blocs and pair-wise mirror polished for the bonded interface technique. Top surfaces were ground with diamond discs of respectively 75, 54 and 18μm. Chip damage was measured on the bonded interface using SEM. Fracture mechanics relationships were used to estimate fracture stresses based on average and maximum chip depths assuming these to represent strength limiting flaws subjected to tension and to calculate potential losses in strength compared to manufacturer's data. Grinding with a 75μm diamond disc induced on a bonded interface critical chips averaging 100μm with a potential strength loss estimated between 33% and 54% for all three glass-ceramics (LIT, LEU, VM2). The softer materials EN and LU were little damage susceptible with chips averaging respectively 26μm and 17μm with no loss in strength. Grinding with 18μm diamond discs was still quite detrimental for LIT with average chip sizes of 43μm and a potential strength loss of 42%. It is essential to understand that when grinding glass-ceramics or feldspar ceramics with diamond discs surface and subsurface damage are induced which have the potential of lowering the strength of the ceramic. Careful polishing steps should be carried out after grinding especially when dealing with glass-ceramics. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rainout assessment: the ACRA system and summaries of simulation results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, C.W.; Barr, S.; Allenson, R.E.

1977-09-01

A generalized, three-dimensional, integrated computer code system was developed to estimate collateral-damage threats from precipitation-scavenging (rainout) of airborne debris-clouds from defensive tactical nuclear engagements. This code system, called ACRA for Atmospheric-Contaminant Rainout Assessment, is based on Monte Carlo statistical simulation methods that allow realistic, unbiased simulations of probabilistic storm, wind, and precipitation fields that determine actual magnitudes and probabilities of rainout threats. Detailed models (or data bases) are included for synoptic-scale storm and wind fields; debris transport and dispersal (with the roles of complex flow fields, time-dependent diffusion, and multidimensional shear effects accounted for automatically); microscopic debris-precipitation interactions and scavenging probabilities; air-to-ground debris transport; local demographic features, for assessing actual threats to populations; and nonlinear effects accumulations from multishot scenarios. We simulated several hundred representative shots for West European scenarios and climates to study single-shot and multishot sensitivities of rainout effects to variations in pertinent physical variables

A Tensor-Based Structural Damage Identification and Severity Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Anaissi, Ali; Makki Alamdari, Mehrisadat; Rakotoarivelo, Thierry; Khoa, Nguyen Lu Dang

2018-01-01

Early damage detection is critical for a large set of global ageing infrastructure. Structural Health Monitoring systems provide a sensor-based quantitative and objective approach to continuously monitor these structures, as opposed to traditional engineering visual inspection. Analysing these sensed data is one of the major Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) challenges. This paper presents a novel algorithm to detect and assess damage in structures such as bridges. This method applies tensor analysis for data fusion and feature extraction, and further uses one-class support vector machine on this feature to detect anomalies, i.e., structural damage. To evaluate this approach, we collected acceleration data from a sensor-based SHM system, which we deployed on a real bridge and on a laboratory specimen. The results show that our tensor method outperforms a state-of-the-art approach using the wavelet energy spectrum of the measured data. In the specimen case, our approach succeeded in detecting 92.5% of induced damage cases, as opposed to 61.1% for the wavelet-based approach. While our method was applied to bridges, its algorithm and computation can be used on other structures or sensor-data analysis problems, which involve large series of correlated data from multiple sensors. PMID:29301314

Building damage assessment from PolSAR data using texture parameters of statistical model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Linlin; Liu, Xiuguo; Chen, Qihao; Yang, Shuai

2018-04-01

Accurate building damage assessment is essential in providing decision support for disaster relief and reconstruction. Polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) has become one of the most effective means of building damage assessment, due to its all-day/all-weather ability and richer backscatter information of targets. However, intact buildings that are not parallel to the SAR flight pass (termed oriented buildings) and collapsed buildings share similar scattering mechanisms, both of which are dominated by volume scattering. This characteristic always leads to misjudgments between assessments of collapsed buildings and oriented buildings from PolSAR data. Because the collapsed buildings and the intact buildings (whether oriented or parallel buildings) have different textures, a novel building damage assessment method is proposed in this study to address this problem by introducing texture parameters of statistical models. First, the logarithms of the estimated texture parameters of different statistical models are taken as a new texture feature to describe the collapse of the buildings. Second, the collapsed buildings and intact buildings are distinguished using an appropriate threshold. Then, the building blocks are classified into three levels based on the building block collapse rate. Moreover, this paper also discusses the capability for performing damage assessment using texture parameters from different statistical models or using different estimators. The RADARSAT-2 and ALOS-1 PolSAR images are used to present and analyze the performance of the proposed method. The results show that using the texture parameters avoids the problem of confusing collapsed and oriented buildings and improves the assessment accuracy. The results assessed by using the K/G0 distribution texture parameters estimated based on the second moment obtain the highest extraction accuracies. For the RADARSAT-2 and ALOS-1 data, the overall accuracy (OA) for these three types of

[A Method Research on Environmental Damage Assessment of a Truck Rollover Pollution Incident].

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Feng; Zhao, Shi-ho; Chen, Gang-cai; Xian, Si-shu; Yang, Qing-ling; Zhou, Xian-jie; Yu, Hai

2015-05-01

With high occurrence of sudden water pollution incident, China faces an increasingly severe situation of water environment. In order to deter the acts of environmental pollution, ensure the damaged resources of environment can be restored and compensated, it is very critical to quantify the economic losses caused by the sudden water pollution incident. This paper took truck rollover pollution incidents in Chongqing for an example, established a set of evaluation method for quantifying the environmental damage, and then assessed the environmental damage by the method from four aspects, including the property damage, ecological environment and resources damages, the costs of administrative affairs in emergency disposal, and the costs of investigation and evaluation.

Technical Note: Assessment of Impact Damage to Apple Fruits ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An impact damage assessment of fresh apple fruits was carried out to ascertain the effects of height and surfaces on bruise area and impact energy. Five different impact surfaces namely: Cardboard (E), wood (F), metal (G), plastic (H) and foam (I) were used for the experiment. The weighed fruits were dropped from different ...

Mapping Hurricane Rita inland storm tide

Science.gov (United States)

Berenbrock, Charles; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Blanchard, Stephen F.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

2009-01-01

Flood-inundation data are most useful for decision makers when presented in the context of maps of effected communities and (or) areas. But because the data are scarce and rarely cover the full extent of the flooding, interpolation and extrapolation of the information are needed. Many geographic information systems (GIS) provide various interpolation tools, but these tools often ignore the effects of the topographic and hydraulic features that influence flooding. A barrier mapping method was developed to improve maps of storm tide produced by Hurricane Rita. Maps were developed for the maximum storm tide and at 3-hour intervals from midnight (0000 hour) through noon (1200 hour) on September 24, 2005. The improved maps depict storm-tide elevations and the extent of flooding. The extent of storm-tide inundation from the improved maximum storm-tide map was compared to the extent of flood-inundation from a map prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The boundaries from these two maps generally compared quite well especially along the Calcasieu River. Also a cross-section profile that parallels the Louisiana coast was developed from the maximum storm-tide map and included FEMA high-water marks.

Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

2013-04-01

The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the

Statistical model for assessing the risk of hail damage to any ground installation. Technical report, June 1978-March 1979

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cox, M; Armstrong, P R

1979-09-01

This report describes a statistical model which has been developed to determine the risk of damage by large hail to any ground installation (such as a solar flat plate collector). The model is based on data for the number of haildays per year, hailstone size distribution, and storm severity (expressed in number of hailstones per square meter per storm). Other than parameters derived from the raw meteorological data available, the parameters of the model are the number of years of surface exposure and the exposure area size. The end result is the probability of a hailstone of a given size striking a given surface area in a given number of years. The maximum probable hailstone size is used as a convenient index of hail risk. The data upon which to base a prediction model are sparse at this time, covering few geographic locations; much of the information available is deficient in sampling consistency and/or sample size. For this reason, this report fully documents the derivation and use of the model for future applications, when more and better data are collected. The FORTRAN source code to calculate the risk model digitally is included in APPENDIX D. This model improves on previous work in: (1) the use of more thorough statistical procedures and a more rigorous accounting of storm severity; (2) a more thorough investigation into the two probability density distributions commonly used (Poisson and negative binomial) to describe hailday frequencies, and (3) an attempt to define more rigorously the distribution of hailstone sizes. A sensitivity analysis was performed and conclusions are drawn from the results.

Incorporation of Socio-Cultural Values in Damage Assessment Valuations of Contaminated Lands in the Niger Delta

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victor A. Akujuru

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Damages on contaminated land have been mostly assessed for developments subsisting on the land, neglecting the goods and services derived from the land which possess only socio-cultural values. This paper aims to ascertain the importance of socio-cultural values in the total economic value of contaminated land, drawing from the experience of a coastal community oil spillage in the Niger Delta. The paper examines what constitutes a valuable interest on contaminated land and how socio-cultural factors are valued in the damage assessment process. After reviewing the literature and decided cases, a questionnaire survey was conducted and a sample valuation report was analysed. It is concluded that there exists a socio-cultural interest on contaminated land which professional valuers do not reflect in damage assessment claims. It is recommended that any comprehensive damage assessment requires the incorporation of socio-cultural values in the valuations.

A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

Science.gov (United States)

Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim Kruschke

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Winter wind storms related to intense extra-tropical cyclones are meteorological extreme events, often with major impacts on economy and human life, especially for Europe and the mid-latitudes. Hence, skillful decadal predictions regarding the frequency of their occurrence would be of great socio-economic value. The present paper extends the study of Kruschke et al. (2014 in several aspects. First, this study is situated in a more impact oriented context by analyzing the frequency of potentially damaging wind storm events instead of targeting at cyclones as general meteorological features which was done by Kruschke et al. (2014. Second, this study incorporates more data sets by analyzing five decadal hindcast experiments – 41 annual (1961–2001 initializations integrated for ten years each – set up with different initialization strategies. However, all experiments are based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in a low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR. Differing combinations of these five experiments allow for more robust estimates of predictive skill (due to considerably larger ensemble size and systematic comparisons of the underlying initialization strategies. Third, the hindcast experiments are corrected for model bias and potential drifts over lead time by means of a novel parametric approach, accounting for non-stationary model drifts. We analyze whether skillful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased can be provided regarding winter (ONDJFM wind storm frequencies over the Northern Hemisphere (NH. Skill is assessed by using climatological probabilities and uninitialized transient simulations as reference forecasts. It is shown that forecasts of average winter wind storm frequencies for winters 2–5 and winters 2–9 are skillful over large parts of the NH. However, most of this skill is associated with external forcing from transient greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations

Psychological stress in hydro workers of the 1998 ice storm : a longitudinal investigation (Quebec)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benzimra, Y.

2003-07-01

This thesis examined occupational stress in terms of the stressful transactions that take place between workers and their workplace. In particular, it documented some of the experiences of hydro workers during the ice storm of 1998 which hit eastern Canada. In addition to identifying stressors, this study assessed the worker's levels of psychological stress and distress 5 and 10 months following the storm. It also examined differences in psychological stress and distress levels between workers with different levels of exposure to the storm. The added contribution of appraised extra-organization stressors to the prediction of psychological stress was also assessed along with the added contribution of extra-organizational sources of support to the prediction of psychological stress. The objective was to test an integrative model of workplace stress and overall distress to better understand the relationship between psychological stress and distress levels over time. Two phases of data, 5 months apart, were collected from full-time employees of Hydro-Quebec, including both men and women who filled out questionnaires about perceived social support and other indicators of overall stress. The results revealed different experiences of the recovery effort workers during and after the ice storm. The experiences of different groups of workers varied depending on the type and degree of involvement in the recovery efforts from the storm. The results emphasized the importance of considering appraised organization stressors when predicting psychological stress. The study revealed that psychological stress 5 months following the ice storm did not add significantly to the prediction of psychological distress 5 months later, once the contribution of psychological distress at the first phase was accounted for.

The evaluation and management of electrical storm.

Science.gov (United States)

Eifling, Michael; Razavi, Mehdi; Massumi, Ali

2011-01-01

Electrical storm is an increasingly common and life-threatening syndrome that is defined by 3 or more sustained episodes of ventricular tachycardia, ventricular fibrillation, or appropriate shocks from an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator within 24 hours. The clinical presentation can be dramatic. Electrical storm can manifest itself during acute myocardial infarction and in patients who have structural heart disease, an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, or an inherited arrhythmic syndrome. The presence or absence of structural heart disease and the electrocardiographic morphology of the presenting arrhythmia can provide important diagnostic clues into the mechanism of electrical storm. Electrical storm typically has a poor outcome.The effective management of electrical storm requires an understanding of arrhythmia mechanisms, therapeutic options, device programming, and indications for radiofrequency catheter ablation. Initial management involves determining and correcting the underlying ischemia, electrolyte imbalances, or other causative factors. Amiodarone and β-blockers, especially propranolol, effectively resolve arrhythmias in most patients. Nonpharmacologic treatment, including radiofrequency ablation, can control electrical storm in drug-refractory patients. Patients who have implantable cardioverter-defibrillators can present with multiple shocks and may require drug therapy and device reprogramming. After the acute phase of electrical storm, the treatment focus should shift toward maximizing heart-failure therapy, performing revascularization, and preventing subsequent ventricular arrhythmias. Herein, we present an organized approach for effectively evaluating and managing electrical storm.

Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Badal, J.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; González, Á.

2005-01-01

Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence...... of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number...... the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out...

Diagnosis and Modeling of the Explosive Development of Winter Storms: Sensitivity to PBL Schemes

Science.gov (United States)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pradhan, Prabodha K.

2014-05-01

The correct representation of extreme windstorms in regional models is of great importance for impact studies of climate change. The Iberian Peninsula has recently witnessed major damage from winter extratropical intense cyclones like Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010) and Gong (January 2013) which formed over the mid-Atlantic, experienced explosive intensification while travelling eastwards at lower latitudes than usual [Liberato et al. 2011; 2013]. In this paper the explosive development of these storms is simulated by the advanced mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF v 3.4.1), initialized with NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data as initial and lateral boundary conditions (boundary conditions updated in every 3 hours intervals). The simulation experiments are conducted with two domains, a coarser (25km) and nested (8.333km), covering the entire North Atlantic and Iberian Peninsula region. The characteristics of these storms (e.g. wind speed, precipitation) are studied from WRF model and compared with multiple observations. In this context simulations with different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes are performed. This approach aims at understanding which mechanisms favor the explosive intensification of these storms at a lower than usual latitudes, thus improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (including small-scale processes) on controlling the life cycle of midlatitude extreme storms and contributing to the improvement in predictability and in our ability to forecast storms' impacts over Iberian Peninsula. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). References: Liberato M.L.R., J.G. Pinto, I.F. Trigo, R.M. Trigo (2011) Klaus - an

Thermal analysis on parchments I: DSC and TGA combined approach for heat damage assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fessas, D.; Signorelli, M.; Schiraldi, A.

2006-01-01

Ancient, new and artificially aged parchments were investigated with both differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetry (TGA). Criteria to define a quantitative ranking of the damage experienced by the bulk collagen of historical parchments were assessed. A damage-related correlation...

The Perfect Storm: How Policy, Research, and Assessment Will Transform Public Education

Science.gov (United States)

McMillan, James H.

2011-01-01

In the 2000 movie "The Perfect Storm," there is an unusual convergence of several critical weather factors that set the stage for a destructive outcome that takes both property and lives. It has become a popular metaphor to describe how events come together in a unique way to have an exceptional influence on something, typically a negative impact.…

High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. G. Donat

2011-10-01

Full Text Available A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset.

The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+ years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21 years.

Using EPA Tools and Data Services to Inform Changes to Design Storm Definitions for Wastewater Utilities based on Climate Model Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Tryby, M.; Fries, J. S.; Baranowski, C.

2014-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can cause significant impacts to drinking water and wastewater utilities, including facility damage, water quality impacts, service interruptions and potential risks to human health and the environment due to localized flooding and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). These impacts will become more pronounced with the projected increases in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events due to climate change. To model the impacts of extreme precipitation events, wastewater utilities often develop Intensity, Duration, and Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves and "design storms" for use in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Wastewater utilities use SWMM for planning, analysis, and facility design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban and non-urban areas. SWMM tracks (1) the quantity and quality of runoff made within each sub-catchment; and (2) the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period made up of multiple time steps. In its current format, EPA SWMM does not consider climate change projection data. Climate change may affect the relationship between intensity, duration, and frequency described by past rainfall events. Therefore, EPA is integrating climate projection data available in the Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) into SWMM. CREAT is a climate risk assessment tool for utilities that provides downscaled climate change projection data for changes in the amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period for various extreme precipitation events (e.g., from 5-year to 100-year storm events). Incorporating climate change projections into SWMM will provide wastewater utilities with more comprehensive data they can use in planning for future storm events, thereby reducing the impacts to the utility and customers served from flooding and stormwater issues.

Storm real-time processing cookbook

CERN Document Server

Anderson, Quinton

2013-01-01

A Cookbook with plenty of practical recipes for different uses of Storm.If you are a Java developer with basic knowledge of real-time processing and would like to learn Storm to process unbounded streams of data in real time, then this book is for you.

Stochastic Optical Reconstruction Microscopy (STORM).

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jianquan; Ma, Hongqiang; Liu, Yang

2017-07-05

Super-resolution (SR) fluorescence microscopy, a class of optical microscopy techniques at a spatial resolution below the diffraction limit, has revolutionized the way we study biology, as recognized by the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2014. Stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy (STORM), a widely used SR technique, is based on the principle of single molecule localization. STORM routinely achieves a spatial resolution of 20 to 30 nm, a ten-fold improvement compared to conventional optical microscopy. Among all SR techniques, STORM offers a high spatial resolution with simple optical instrumentation and standard organic fluorescent dyes, but it is also prone to image artifacts and degraded image resolution due to improper sample preparation or imaging conditions. It requires careful optimization of all three aspects-sample preparation, image acquisition, and image reconstruction-to ensure a high-quality STORM image, which will be extensively discussed in this unit. © 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Alkaline Comet Assay for Assessing DNA Damage in Individual Cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Pu, Xinzhu; Wang, Zemin; Klaunig, James E

2015-08-06

Single-cell gel electrophoresis, commonly called a comet assay, is a simple and sensitive method for assessing DNA damage at the single-cell level. It is an important technique in genetic toxicological studies. The comet assay performed under alkaline conditions (pH >13) is considered the optimal version for identifying agents with genotoxic activity. The alkaline comet assay is capable of detecting DNA double-strand breaks, single-strand breaks, alkali-labile sites, DNA-DNA/DNA-protein cross-linking, and incomplete excision repair sites. The inclusion of digestion of lesion-specific DNA repair enzymes in the procedure allows the detection of various DNA base alterations, such as oxidative base damage. This unit describes alkaline comet assay procedures for assessing DNA strand breaks and oxidative base alterations. These methods can be applied in a variety of cells from in vitro and in vivo experiments, as well as human studies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010

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Gregow, H.; Laaksonen, A.; Alper, M. E.

2017-04-01

Using reports of forest losses caused directly by large scale windstorms (or primary damage, PD) from the European forest institute database (comprising 276 PD reports from 1951-2010), total growing stock (TGS) statistics of European forests and the daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, we identify a statistically significant change in storm intensity in Western, Central and Northern Europe (17 countries). Using the validated set of storms, we found that the year 1990 represents a change-point at which the average intensity of the most destructive storms indicated by PD/TGS > 0.08% increased by more than a factor of three. A likelihood ratio test provides strong evidence that the change-point represents a real shift in the statistical behaviour of the time series. All but one of the seven catastrophic storms (PD/TGS > 0.2%) occurred since 1990. Additionally, we detected a related decrease in September-November PD/TGS and an increase in December-February PD/TGS. Our analyses point to the possibility that the impact of climate change on the North Atlantic storms hitting Europe has started during the last two and half decades.

Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands: Chapter 4

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Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara; Stockdon, Hilary F.

2017-01-01

This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time series of island elevation measurements have documented a wide range of barrier island responses to storms and long-term processes that are representative of barrier island behaviour at many other locations. These islands are low elevation, extremely vulnerable to storms and exhibit a diversity of storm responses. Additionally, this location experiences a moderately high rate of relative sea-level rise, increasing its vulnerability to the combined impacts of storms and long-term erosional processes. Understanding how natural processes, including storm impacts and intervening recovery periods interact with man-made restoration processes is also broadly relevant to understand the natural and human response to future storms.

BUILDING DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AFTER EARTHQUAKE USING POST-EVENT LiDAR DATA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Rastiveis

2015-12-01

Full Text Available After an earthquake, damage assessment plays an important role in leading rescue team to help people and decrease the number of mortality. Damage map is a map that demonstrates collapsed buildings with their degree of damage. With this map, finding destructive buildings can be quickly possible. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for automatic damage map generation after an earthquake using post-event LiDAR Data and pre-event vector map. The framework of the proposed approach has four main steps. To find the location of all buildings on LiDAR data, in the first step, LiDAR data and vector map are registered by using a few number of ground control points. Then, building layer, selected from vector map, are mapped on the LiDAR data and all pixels which belong to the buildings are extracted. After that, through a powerful classifier all the extracted pixels are classified into three classes of “debris”, “intact building” and “unclassified”. Since textural information make better difference between “debris” and “intact building” classes, different textural features are applied during the classification. After that, damage degree for each candidate building is estimated based on the relation between the numbers of pixels labelled as “debris” class to the whole building area. Calculating the damage degree for each candidate building, finally, building damage map is generated. To evaluate the ability proposed method in generating damage map, a data set from Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s capital after the 2010 Haiti earthquake was used. In this case, after calculating of all buildings in the test area using the proposed method, the results were compared to the damage degree which estimated through visual interpretation of post-event satellite image. Obtained results were proved the reliability of the proposed method in damage map generation using LiDAR data.