WorldWideScience

Sample records for asian summer monsoon

  1. Asian Black Carbon Influence on East Asian Summer Monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood, R.; Li, S.

    2012-04-01

    Since the black carbon (BC) emission in East and South Asia has increased significantly during the last decades of the 20th century, there is an ever growing concern about its impact on Asian monsoon. In this study we provide an in-depth analysis of the influence by performing several ensemble sensitive experiments with or without historical BC concentrations over East Asia, South Asia, and the combined East and South Asia in an atmospheric general circulation model, GFDL AM2.1. The results show that: (a) The East Asian summer climate is sensitive to the East Asian BC (EABC) concentrations in a sense that EABC contributes significantly to the frequently occurring north-drought and south-flood patterns in Eastern China. In detail, the large scale precipitation anomalies induced by EABC characterize more rainfalls over central/south China, East China Sea and southern Japan and less rainfall over northern China and the west Pacific region between 10° to 20°N. These anomalous precipitation patterns are mainly attributed to the EABC induced large scale circulation changes including the weakened Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), anomalous ascent motions over central-southern China (centering over the Yangtze River valley (YRV)) and the subsequent descent motions over northern China and the South China Sea. These modeled results suggest that the EABC experiment reproduces the climate shift event of eastern China during the late 1970s, including intensified rainfall in the YRV and the weakened summer monsoonal circulation. (b) The anomalous results of South Asian BC (SABC) experiment signify a tri-polar precipitation response over East Asia, with a reduction from the YRV to East China Sea and southern Japan sandwiched with increases over a northern domain from northern China/ Korea to northern Japan and over southern China. As for southern China, particularly the YRV, the impact of SABC is to offset a fraction of intensified rainfall induced by local BC of East

  2. Subtropical circulation, Tibetan Plateau, and Asian Summer Monsoon

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    Wu, G. X.

    2015-12-01

    The characteristics of the land-air-sea interaction in summer subtropics and their impacts on climate were revealed. It was shown that different kind of diabatic heating plays different roles in the formation of the subtropical circulation where the surface sensible heating associated with the land-sea distribution plays a fundamentally important role, and the three spatial- scales of atmospheric forcing contribute in various ways to the formation of aridity/desert over the western parts of continents and wet/monsoon over the eastern parts. Thus monsoon and desert coexist as twin features. It was identified that the onset of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) consists of three dynamically consequential stages: the onset first occurs over the eastern Bay of Bengal (BOB) in early May, which is followed by the onset over the South China Sea in mid-May, and the Indian Monsoon onset in early June. During such an onset progression, the formation, maintenance and evolution of the South Asian High (SAH) play a significant role in generating the upper tropospheric dumping. In the lower troposphere, the development of the BOB monsoon onset vortex, the ASM onset barrier, the cross equatorial SST gradient and the forced convection over the eastern Arabian Sea also regulate the onset evolution. In winter the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can inspire a stationary dipole-type atmospheric wave, forming a specific climate pattern in Asia. In spring, such a dipole circulation forms the unique persistent rainfall over Southern China. The TP forcing can also anchor the ASM onset over the BOB by generating the unique short- life BOB SST warm pool and modulating the SAH in the upper troposphere. In summer the thermal forcing of the Tibetan-Iranian Plateau plays a significant role in controlling the Asian monsoon by transporting water vapor from the sea to the land for the genesis of continental monsoon. The TP thermal forcing also modulates the regional climate variability in different time scales.

  3. Differences and links between the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon systems: Characteristics and Variability

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    Huang, Ronghui; Liu, Yong; Du, Zhencai; Chen, Jilong; Huangfu, Jingliang

    2017-10-01

    This paper analyzes the differences in the characteristics and spatio-temporal variabilities of summertime rainfall and water vapor transport between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) systems. The results show obvious differences in summertime rainfall characteristics between these two monsoon systems. The summertime rainfall cloud systems of the EASM show a mixed stratiform and cumulus cloud system, while cumulus cloud dominates the SASM. These differences may be caused by differences in the vertical shear of zonal and meridional circulations and the convergence of water vapor transport fluxes. Moreover, the leading modes of the two systems' summertime rainfall anomalies also differ in terms of their spatiotemporal features on the interannual and interdecadal timescales. Nevertheless, several close links with respect to the spatiotemporal variabilities of summertime rainfall and water vapor transport exist between the two monsoon systems. The first modes of summertime rainfall in the SASM and EASM regions reveal a significant negative correlation on the interannual and the interdecadal timescales. This close relationship may be linked by a meridional teleconnection in the regressed summertime rainfall anomalies from India to North China through the southeastern part over the Tibetan Plateau, which we refer to as the South Asia/East Asia teleconnection pattern of Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The authors wish to dedicate this paper to Prof. Duzheng YE, and commemorate his 100th anniversary and his great contributions to the development of atmospheric dynamics.

  4. Baseline predictability of daily east Asian summer monsoon circulation indices

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    Ai, Shucong; Chen, Quanliang; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang; Zhong, Quanjia

    2017-05-01

    The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) method is adopted to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity indices on a synoptic timescale. The predictability limit of EASM indices varies widely according to the definitions of indices. EASM indices defined by zonal shear have a limit of around 7 days, which is higher than the predictability limit of EASM indices defined by sea level pressure (SLP) difference and meridional wind shear (about 5 days). The initial error of EASM indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear shows a faster growth than indices defined by zonal wind shear. Furthermore, the indices defined by zonal wind shear appear to fluctuate at lower frequencies, whereas the indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear generally fluctuate at higher frequencies. This result may explain why the daily variability of the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear tends be more predictable than those defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. Analysis of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill for EASM indices obtained from observations and from NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) historical weather forecast dataset shows that GEFS has a higher forecast skill for the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear than for indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. The predictability limit estimated by the NLLE method is shorter than that in GEFS. In addition, the June-September average TCC skill for different daily EASM indices shows significant interannual variations from 1985 to 2015 in GEFS. However, the TCC for different types of EASM indices does not show coherent interannual fluctuations.

  5. A possible impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the east Asian summer monsoon precipitation

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    Sung, Mi-Kyung; Kwon, Won-Tae; Baek, Hee-Jeong; Boo, Kyung-On; Lim, Gyu-Ho; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2006-11-01

    This letter reports on a possible delayed impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the following east Asian summer monsoon precipitation. An analysis of weather station data shows significant correlations between the December NAO index and precipitation over Korea and China in the subsequent summer. It appears that the correlation may be related to a wave train pattern which originates from the North Atlantic. The east Asian branch of this wave train can affect large-scale circulation and the precipitation over east Asia in early summer. We also found a significant interdecadal change of this relationship, which is possibly linked to a climatological change of the east Asian jet stream.

  6. Astronomical and Hydrological Perspective of Mountain Impacts on the Asian Summer Monsoon

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    He, Bian; Wu, Guoxiong; Liu, Yimin; Bao, Qing

    2015-12-01

    The Asian summer monsoon has great socioeconomic impacts. Understanding how the huge Tibetan and Iranian Plateaus affect the Asian summer monsoon is of great scientific value and has far-reaching significance for sustainable global development. One hypothesis considers the plateaus to be a shield for monsoon development in India by blocking cold-dry northerly intrusion into the tropics. Based on astronomical radiation analysis and numerical modeling, here we show that in winter the plateaus cannot block such a northerly intrusion; while in summer the daily solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface, and the surface potential temperature to the north of the Tibetan Plateau, are higher than their counterparts to its south, and such plateau shielding is not needed. By virtue of hydrological analysis, we show that the high energy near the surface required for continental monsoon development is maintained mainly by high water vapor content. Results based on potential vorticity-potential temperature diagnosis further demonstrate that it is the pumping of water vapor from sea to land due to the thermal effects of the plateaus that breeds the Asian continental monsoon.

  7. Pollen evidence for a mid-Holocene East Asian summer monsoon maximum in northern China

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    Wen, Ruilin; Xiao, Jule; Fan, Jiawei; Zhang, Shengrui; Yamagata, Hideki

    2017-11-01

    There is a controversy regarding whether the high precipitation delivered by an intensified East Asian summer monsoon occurred during the early Holocene, or during the middle Holocene, especially in the context of the monsoonal margin region. The conflicting views on the subject may be caused by chronological uncertainties and ambiguities in the interpretation of different climate proxies measured in different sedimentary sequences. Here, we present a detailed record of the Holocene evolution of vegetation in northern China based on a high-resolution pollen record from Dali Lake, located near the modern summer monsoon limit. From 12,000-8300 cal BP, the sandy land landscape changed from desert to open elm forest and shrubland, while dry steppe dominated the hilly lands and patches of birch forest developed in the mountains. Between 8300 and 6000 cal BP, elm forest was extensively distributed in the sandy lands, while typical steppe covered the hilly lands and mixed coniferous-broadleaved forests expanded in the mountains. Our pollen evidence contradicts the view that the monsoonal rainfall increased during the early Holocene; rather, it indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon did not become intensified until ∼8000 cal BP in northern China. The low precipitation during the early Holocene can be attributed to the boundary conditions, i.e., to the remnant high-latitude Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the relatively low global sea level.

  8. Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

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    Lau, William Ka-Ming; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

  9. Probing the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer during Summer Monsoon Using in situ Measurements

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    Liu, S.; Yu, P., Sr.; Telg, H.; Zhixuan, B.; Bian, J.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Gao, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    The monsoon deep convection provides a potential pathway for the transport of surface-emitted pollutants to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). These pollutants are then trapped by the anticyclone forming a sustained pollution layer. Recent satellite studies have revealed enhanced aerosol mass in the in Asia (Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer, ATAL) during the monsoon season. The enhanced aerosol layer, however, has not been confirmed by in situ measurements, in part due to the limitation of instrumentation that is capable to be deployed on balloons. With the development of a light-weight, high-sensitivity particle counter (printed optical particle spectrometer, POPS), we are able to measure the vertically-resolved aerosol number density and size distribution in real time. We deployed the POPS on balloons in the summer of 2015 in Kunming, China, a site on the edge of the Asian summer anticyclone region. The measurements showed an ATAL spanning from 15 to 19 km vertically. The particles in the ATAL were dominated by submicron particles, with their total number concentration reaching 30 cm-3 for aerosols with diameter of 140 nm to 3 μm. The particle number concentration of the ATAL was 3-4 times higher than that of the layer immediately below 15 km. Based on the result this pilot study, we will expand our measurements to the center of the Asian monsoon anticyclone in Lhasa, China in the summer of 2016. Additional balloon-borne measurements will be conducted at Houston following the Lhasa measurements in an attempt to sample the outflow from the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone. The in-situ size distribution data can be used to diagnose air motion in the UTLS region and constrain dynamic transport in global models.

  10. Large-scale urbanization effects on eastern Asian summer monsoon circulation and climate

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    Chen, Haishan; Zhang, Ye; Yu, Miao; Hua, Wenjian; Sun, Shanlei; Li, Xing; Gao, Chujie

    2016-07-01

    Impacts of large-scale urbanization over eastern China on East Asian summer monsoon circulation and climate are investigated by comparing three 25-year climate simulations with and without incorporating modified land cover maps reflecting two different idealized large-scale urbanization scenarios. The global atmospheric general circulation model CAM4.0 that includes an urban canopy parameterization scheme is employed in this study. The large-scale urbanization over eastern China leads to a significant warming over most of the expanded urban areas, characterized by an increase of 3 K for surface skin temperature, 2.25 K for surface air temperature, significant warming of both daily minimum and daily maximum air temperatures, and 0.4 K for the averaged urban-rural temperature difference. The urbanization is also accompanied by an increase in surface sensible heat flux, a decrease of the net surface shortwave and long-wave radiation, and an enhanced surface thermal heating to the atmosphere in most Eastern Asia areas. It is noted that the responses of the East Asian summer monsoon circulation exhibits an evident month-to-month variation. Across eastern China, the summer monsoon in early summer is strengthened by the large-scale urbanization, but weakened (intensified) over southern (northern) part of East Asia in late summer. Meanwhile, early summer precipitation is intensified in northern and northeastern China and suppressed in south of ~35°N, but late summer precipitation is evidently suppressed over northeast China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan with enhancements in southern China, the South China Sea, and the oceanic region south and southeast of the Taiwan Island. This study highlights the evidently distinct month-to-month responses of the monsoon system to the large-scale urbanization, which might be attributed to different basic states, internal feedbacks (cloud, rainfall) as well as a dynamic adjustment of the atmosphere. Further investigation is required

  11. CSSP MESETA : Simulation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon with idealized Tibetan Plateau orography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Kai Chi; Turner, Andrew

    2017-04-01

    Contrary to the traditional view on monsoon dynamics, recent modelling studies have shown that orographic blocking from the Himalayas is perhaps more important than the elevated heating from the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in maintaining the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM). For the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), the mechanism is less clear. The CSSP MESETA project aims to further investigate the TP's orographic forcing on the dynamic and thermodynamic structures of regional and downstream climate. Using the UK Met Office HadGEM3 model in its atmosphere only configuration, various experiments with idealised orography were performed to assess the orographic forcing exerted by the TP, Himalayas (HM) and Iranian Plateau (IP). Our results confirm that elevated heating from the TP is indeed not required to maintain the SASM while the HM and IP are both important in sheltering the Indian landmass from the cooler extratropical airmass. Meanwhile, the EASM weakens in all simulations that removed the TP. Whether this is due to the lack of elevated heating or orographic blocking will be the focus of future investigation. This work contributes to the goals of the Global Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (GMMIP), an endorsed component of CMIP6.

  12. Land surface and ocean effects on the variabilities of three Asian summer monsoons

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    Lee, Eungul

    The effects on the variabilities of three Asian summer monsoons of changes in recent land surface and ocean heat sources are examined using the results from several observational analyses and modeling simulations. We find that the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) can be subdivided into a northern and a southern component with distinctly different driving mechanisms. The northern EASM (NEASM) is affected by heat sources in the tropical oceans related to El Nino events, while the southern EASM (SEASM) is affected by the subtropical oceans related to a North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) dipole mode. A stronger NEASM is related to above-normal western North Pacific anticyclonic anomalies, while a stronger SEASM is related to below-normal western North Pacific anticyclonic anomalies. These anticyclonic anomalies are connected to SST anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific during the pre-monsoon season (December˜May). We provide evidence that decreased July sensible heat flux in the Indian subcontinent (an expected result of increased soil moisture due to irrigation and increased vegetation) leads to a reduced land-sea thermal contrast, which is one of the driving factors for the monsoon, and therefore weakens the monsoon circulation. Thus, a weak early Indian summer monsoon appears to be at least partially a result of irrigation and the resultant increased vegetation activity during the preceding spring. EASM precipitation can be predicted from land and ocean factors during the pre-monsoon season using a linear regression model. Statistical forecast models of the EASM using land cover conditions in addition to ocean heat sources double and triple, respectively, the predictive skill of the NEASM and SEASM forecasting models relative to models using ocean factors alone. This work highlights the, as yet, undocumented importance of seasonal land cover in monsoon prediction and the role of the biosphere in the climate system as a whole. We also detail the

  13. Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia

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    Yang, Bao; Kang, Shuyuan; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; He, Minhui; Zhao, Yan; Qin, Chun

    2014-08-01

    The northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region (NASM) in China refers to the most northwestern extent of the Asian summer monsoon. Understanding the characteristics and underlying mechanisms of drought variability at long and short time-scales in the NASM region is of great importance, because present and future water shortages are of great concern. Here, we used newly developed and existing tree-ring, historical documentary and instrumental data available for the region to identify spatial and temporal patterns, and possible mechanisms of drought variability, over the past two millennia. We found that drought variations were roughly consistent in the western (the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor) and eastern (the Great Bend of the Yellow River, referred to as GBYR) parts of the NASM on decadal to centennial timescales. We also identified the spatial extent of typical multi-decadal GBYR drought events based on historical dryness/wetness data and the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. It was found that the two periods of drought, in AD 1625-1644 and 1975-1999, exhibited similar patterns: specifically, a wet west and a dry east in the NASM. Spatial characteristics of wetness and dryness were also broadly similar over these two periods, such that when drought occurred in the Karakoram Mountains, western Tianshan Mountains, the Pamirs, Mongolia, most of East Asia, the eastern Himalayas and Southeast Asia, a wet climate dominated in most parts of the Indian subcontinent. We suggest that the warm temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific might have been mainly responsible for the recent 1975-1999 drought. Possible causes of the drought of 1625-1644 were the combined effects of the weakened Asian summer monsoon and an associated southward shift of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone. These changes occurred due to a combination of Tibetan Plateau cooling together with more general Northern Hemisphere cooling, rather than being solely due to changes in the sea

  14. Propagation and mechanisms of the quasi-biweekly oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

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    Wang, Meirong; Wang, Jun; Duan, Anmin

    2017-04-01

    The propagation and underlying mechanisms of the boreal summer quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) over the entire Asian monsoon region are investigated, based on ECMWF Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data, GPCP precipitation data, and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Statistical analyses indicate that the QBWO over the Asian monsoon region derives its main origin from the equatorial western Pacific and moves northwestward to the Bay of Bengal and northern India, and then northward to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area, with a baroclinic vertical structure. Northward propagation of the QBWO is promoted by three main mechanisms: barotropic vorticity, boundary moisture advection, and surface sensible heating (SSH). It is dominated by the barotropic vorticity effect when the QBWO signals are situated to the south of 20°N. During the propagation taking place farther north toward the TP, the boundary moisture advection and SSH are the leading mechanisms. We use an AGCM to verify the importance of SSH on the northward propagation of the QBWO. Numerical simulations confirm the diagnostic conclusion that the equatorial western Pacific is the source of the QBWO. Importantly, the model can accurately simulate the propagation pathway of the QBWO signals over the Asian monsoon region. Simultaneously, sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the SSH over northern India and the southern slope of the TP greatly contributes to the northward propagation of the QBWO as far as the TP area.

  15. Urban heat mitigation by roof surface materials during the East Asian summer monsoon

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    Lee, Seungjoon; Ryu, Youngryel; Jiang, Chongya

    2017-04-01

    Roof surface materials, such as green and white roofs, have attracted attention in their role in urban heat mitigation, and various studies have assessed the cooling performance of roof surface materials during hot and sunny summer seasons. However, summers in the East Asian monsoon climate region are characterized by significant fluctuations in weather events, such as dry periods, heatwaves, and rainy and cloudy days. This study investigated the efficacy of different roof surface materials for heat mitigation, considering the temperatures both at and beneath the surface of the roof covering materials during a summer monsoon in Seoul, Korea. We performed continuous observations of temperature at and beneath the surface of the roof covering materials, and manual observation of albedo and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for a white roof, two green roofs (grass [Poa pratensis] and sedum [Sedum sarmentosum]), and a reference surface. Overall, the surface temperature of the white roof was significantly lower than that of the grass and sedum roofs (1.1 and 1.3°C), whereas the temperature beneath the surface of the white roof did not differ significantly from that of the grass and sedum roofs during the summer. The degree of cloudiness significantly modified the surface temperature of the white roof compared with that of the grass and sedum roofs, which depended on plant metabolisms. It was difficult for the grass to maintain its cooling ability without adequate watering management. After considering the cooling performance and maintenance efforts for different environmental conditions, we concluded that white roof performed better in urban heat mitigation than grass and sedum during the East Asian summer monsoon. Our findings will be useful in urban heat mitigation in the region.

  16. Possible teleconnections between East and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in projected future climate change

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    Woo, Sumin; Singh, Gyan Prakash; Oh, Jai-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Min

    2018-01-01

    The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010-2039), mid-(2040-2069) and far-(2070-2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea-Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea-Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea-Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea-Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea-Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity.

  17. Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

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    Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-12-01

    Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  18. Variability and teleconnections of South and East Asian summer monsoons in present and future projections of CMIP5 climate models

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    Preethi, Bhaskar; Mujumdar, Milind; Prabhu, Amita; Kripalani, Ramesh

    2017-05-01

    Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model outputs of the South and East Asian summer monsoon variability and their tele-connections are investigated using historical simulations (1861-2005) and future projections under the RCP4.5 scenario (2006-2100). Detailed analyses are performed using nine models having better representation of the recent monsoon teleconnections for the interactive Asian monsoon sub-systems. However, these models underestimate rainfall mainly over South Asia and Korea-Japan sector, the regions of heavy rainfall, along with a bias in location of rainfall maxima. Indeed, the simulation biases, underestimations of monsoon variability and teleconnections suggest further improvements for better representation of Asian monsoon in the climate models. Interestingly, the performance of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1.0 (ACCESS1.0) in simulating the annual cycle, spatial pattern of rainfall and multi-decadal variations of summer monsoon rainfall over South and East Asia appears to more realistic. In spite of large spread among the CMIP5 models, historical simulations as well as future projections of summer monsoon rainfall indicate multi-decadal variability. These rainfall variations, displaying certain epochs of more rainfall over South Asia than over East Asia and vice versa, suggest an oscillatory behaviour. Teleconnections between South and East Asian monsoon rainfall also exhibit a multi-decadal variation with alternate epochs of strengthening and weakening relationship. Furthermore, large-scale circulation features such as South Asian monsoon trough and north Pacific subtropical high depict zonal oscillatory behaviour with east-west-east shifts. Periods with eastward or westward extension of the Mascarene High, intensification and expansion of the upper tropospheric South Asian High are also projected by the CMIP5 models.

  19. Change in the tropical cyclone activity around Korea by the East Asian summer monsoon

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    Choi, Jae-Won; Cha, Yumi; Kim, Jeoung-Yun

    2017-12-01

    Correlation between the frequency of summer tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting Korea and the East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) was analyzed over the last 37 years. A clear positive correlation existed between the two variables, and this high positive correlation remained unchanged even when excluding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. To investigate the causes of the positive correlation between the two variables in non-ENSO years, after the 8 years with the highest EASMI (high EASMI years) and the 8 years with the lowest EASMI (low EASMI years) were selected, and the average difference between the two phases was analyzed. In high EASMI years, in the difference between the two phases regarding 850 and 500 hPa streamline, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in mid-latitude East Asian areas. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed near Korea, with these anomalous southeasterlies playing the role of anomalous steering flows making the TCs head toward areas near Korea. In addition, a monsoon trough strengthened more eastward, and TCs in high EASMI years occurred more in east ward over the western North Pacific.

  20. The East Asian Summer Monsoon at mid-Holocene: results from PMIP3 simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zheng

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Ten Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs participated in the third phase of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3 are assessed for the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM in both the pre-Industrial (PI, 0 ka and mid-Holocene (MH, 6 ka simulations. Results show that the PMIP3 model median captures well the large-scale characteristics of the EASM, including the two distinct features of the Meiyu rainbelt and the stepwise meridional displacement of the monsoonal rainbelt. At mid-Holocene, the PMIP3 model median shows significant warming (cooling during boreal summer (winter over Eurasia continent that are dominated by the changes of insolation. However, the PMIP3 models fail to simulate a warmer annual mean and winter surface air temperature (TAS over eastern China as derived from proxy records. The EASM at MH are featured by the changes of large-scale circulation over Eastern China while the changes of precipitation are not significant over its sub-domains of the Southern China and the lower reaches of Yangzi River. The inter-model differences for the monsoon precipitation can be associated with different configurations of the changes in large-scale circulation and the water vapour content, of which the former determines the sign of precipitation changes. The large model spread for the TAS over Tibetan Plateau has a positive relationship with the precipitation in the lower reaches of Yangzi River, yet this relationship does not apply to those PMIP3 models in which the monsoonal precipitation is more sensitive to the changes of large-scale circulation. Except that the PMIP3 model median captured the warming of annual mean TAS over Tibetan Plateau, no significant improvements can be concluded when compared with the PMIP2 models results.

  1. Three exceptionally strong East-Asian summer monsoon events during glacial times in the past 470 kyr

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.-D. Rousseau

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Chinese loess sequences are interpreted as a reliable record of the past variation of the East Asian monsoon regime through the alternation of loess and paleosols units, dominated by the winter and summer monsoon, respectively. Different proxies have been used to describe this system, mostly geophysical, geochemical or sedimentological. Terrestrial mollusks are also a reliable proxy of past environmental conditions and are often preserved in large numbers in loess deposits. The analysis of the mollusk remains in the Luochuan sequence, comprising L5 loess to S0 soil, i.e. the last 500 ka, shows that for almost all identified species, the abundance is higher at the base of the interval (L5 to L4 than in the younger deposits. Using the present ecological requirements of the identified mollusk species in the Luochuan sequence allows the definition of two main mollusk groups varying during the last 500 kyr. The cold-aridiphilous individuals indicate the so-called Asian winter monsoon regime and predominantly occur during glacials, when dust is deposited. The thermal-humidiphilous mollusks are prevalent during interglacial or interstadial conditions of the Asian summer monsoon, when soil formation takes place. In the sequence, three events with exceptionally high abundance of the Asian summer monsoon indicators are recorded during the L5, L4 and L2 glacial intervals, i.e., at about 470, 360 and 170 kyr, respectively. The L5 and L4 events appear to be the strongest (high counts. Similar variations have also been identified in the Xifeng sequence, distant enough from Luochuan, but also in Lake Baikal further North, to suggest that this phenomenon is regional rather than local. The indicators of the summer monsoon within the glacial intervals imply a strengthened East-Asian monsoon interpreted as corresponding to marine isotope stages 12, 10 and 6, respectively. The L5 and L2 summer monsoons are coeval with Mediterranean sapropels S12 and S6, which

  2. Forced and internal modes of variability of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Liu

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The modern instrumental record (1979–2006 is analyzed in an attempt to reveal the dynamical structure and origins of the major modes of interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM and to elucidate their fundamental differences with the major modes of seasonal variability. These differences are instrumental in understanding of the forced (say orbital and internal (say interannual modes of variability in EASM. We show that the leading mode of interannual variation, which accounts for about 39% of the total variance, is primarily associated with decaying phases of major El Nino, whereas the second mode, which accounts for 11.3% of the total variance, is associated with the developing phase of El Nino/La Nina. The EASM responds to ENSO in a nonlinear fashion with regard to the developing and decay phases of El Nino. The two modes are determined by El Nino/La Nina forcing and monsoon-warm ocean interaction, or essentially driven by internal feedback processes within the coupled climate system. For this internal mode, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ and subtropical EASM precipitations exhibit an out-of-phase variations; further, the Meiyu in Yangtze River Valley is also out-of-phase with the precipitation in the central North China.

    In contrast, the annual cycle forced by the solar radiation shows an in-phase variation between the ITCZ and the subtropical EASM precipitation. Further, the seasonal march of precipitation displays a continental-scale northward advance of a southwest-northeastward tilted rainband from mid-May toward the end of July. This coherent seasonal advance between Indian and East Asian monsoons suggests that the position of the northern edge of the summer monsoon over the central North China may be an adequate measure of the monsoon intensity for the forced mode. Given the fact that the annual modes share the similar external forcing with orbital variability, the difference between the annual

  3. Two modes of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Pliocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, S.; Nie, J.; Breecker, D.

    2016-12-01

    The Middle Pliocene Warm Period is a potential analog for future climate. Tibetan uplift, Panama Seaway closure, ocean salinity/temperature variations, and glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere have all been proposed to affect East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the Pliocene, a system affecting life of billions of people in Asia, but debates remain about their respective role despite decades of studies. A main reason that the mechanisms for Pliocene EASM variation are debated is a lack of consistency between various monsoon proxy records. Magnetic susceptibility and Rb/Sr ratio show that the EASM intensified during the late Pliocene; by contrast, degree of soil formation, chemical index of alteration (CIA), pollen and mollusk assemblages suggest decreased monsoon precipitation during the late Pliocene. Here we present the first oxygen isotope record spanning the entire Pliocene based on pedogenic carbonates from the Chinese Loess Plateau. The record shows that the less negative side of oxygen isotopes, presumably corresponding to the glacial period values, have an increasing trend after 4.5 Ma, consistent with decreased EASM as inferred by CIA, pedogenic features, and biological proxies. However, the minimum d18O values during the late Pliocene, presumably corresponding to interglacial period values, are persistently more negative than the early Pliocene, consistent with intensified EASM as inferred by magnetic susceptibility and Rb/Sr. This record demonstrates that EASM have two modes of variability during the Pliocene and settles the inconsistency between different EASM proxy records.

  4. Asian Summer Monsoon Anomalies Induced by Aerosol Direct Forcing: The Role of the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, M. K.; Kim, K. M.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we present results of a numerical study using the NASA finite-volume GCM to elucidate a plausible mechanism for aerosol impact on the Asian summer monsoon involving interaction with physical processes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). During the premonsoon season of March April, dusts from the deserts of western China, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the Middle East are transported into and stacked up against the northern and southern slopes of the TP. The absorption of solar radiation by dust heats up the elevated surface air over the slopes. On the southern slopes, the atmospheric heating is reinforced by black carbon from local emission. The heated air rises via dry convection, creating a positive temperature anomaly in the mid-to-upper troposphere over the TP relative to the region to the south. In May through early June in a manner akin to an elevated heat pump , the rising hot air forced by the increasing heating in the upper troposphere, draws in warm and moist air over the Indian subcontinent, setting the stage for the onset of the South Asia summer monsoon. Our results suggest that increased dust loading coupled with black carbon emission from local sources in northern India during late spring may lead to an advance of the rainy periods and subsequently an intensification of the Indian summer monsoon. The enhanced rainfall over India is associated with the development of an aerosol-induced large-scale sea level pressure anomaly pattern, which causes the East Asia (Mei-yu) rain belt to shift northwestward, suppressing rainfall over East Asia and the adjacent oceanic regions.

  5. Simulation skill of APCC set of global climate models for Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, U. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Vikas

    2015-04-01

    The performance of 11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) global climate models (coupled and uncoupled both) in simulating the seasonal summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall variability over Asia (especially over India and East Asia) has been evaluated in detail using hind-cast data (3 months advance) generated from APCC which provides the regional climate information product services based on multi-model ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction systems. The skill of each global climate model over Asia was tested separately in detail for the period of 21 years (1983-2003), and simulated Asian summer monsoon rainfall (ASMR) has been verified using various statistical measures for Indian and East Asian land masses separately. The analysis found a large variation in spatial ASMR simulated with uncoupled model compared to coupled models (like Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Japan Meteorological Agency). The simulated ASMR in coupled model was closer to Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) compared to uncoupled models although the amount of ASMR was underestimated in both models. Analysis also found a high spread in simulated ASMR among the ensemble members (suggesting that the model's performance is highly dependent on its initial conditions). The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature (SST) and ASMR shows that that the coupled models are strongly associated with ASMR compared to the uncoupled models (suggesting that air-sea interaction is well cared in coupled models). The analysis of rainfall using various statistical measures suggests that the multi-model ensemble (MME) performed better compared to individual model and also separate study indicate that Indian and East Asian land masses are more useful compared to Asia monsoon rainfall as a whole. The results of various statistical measures like skill of multi-model ensemble, large spread

  6. Characterization of non-methane hydrocarbons in Asian summer monsoon outflow observed by the CARIBIC aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Baker

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Between April and December 2008 the CARIBIC commercial aircraft conducted monthly measurement flights between Frankfurt, Germany and Chennai, India. These flights covered the period of the Asian summer monsoon (June–September, during which enhancements in a number of atmospheric species were observed in the upper troposphere over southwestern Asia. In addition to in situ measurements of trace gases and aerosols, whole air samples were collected during the flights, and these were subsequently analyzed for a suite of trace gases that included a number of C2–C8 non-methane hydrocarbons. Non-methane hydrocarbons are relatively short-lived compounds and the large enhancements in their mixing ratios in the upper troposphere over southwestern Asia during the monsoon, sometimes more than double their spring and fall means, provides qualitative evidence for the influence of convectively uplifted boundary layer air. The particularly large enhancements of the combustion tracers benzene and ethyne, along with the similarity of their ratios with carbon monoxide and emission ratios from the burning of household biofuels, indicate a strong influence of biofuel burning to NMHC emissions in this region. Conversely, the ratios of ethane and propane to carbon monoxide, along with the ratio between i-butane and n-butane, indicate a significant source of these compounds from the use of fossil fuels, and comparison to previous campaigns suggests that this source could be increasing. Photochemical aging patterns of NMHCs showed that the CARIBIC samples were collected in two distinctly different regions of the monsoon circulation: a southern region where air masses had been recently influenced by low level contact and a northern region, where air parcels had spent substantial time in transit in the upper troposphere before being probed. Estimates of age using ratios of individual NMHCs have ranges of 3–6 days in the south and 9–12 days in

  7. Influences of volcano eruptions on Asian Summer Monsoon over the last 110 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Liang; Liu, Jian; Sun, Weiyi

    2017-02-16

    Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation is the primary water resource for agriculture in many Asian countries that have experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, thus implying the necessity for further investigations on both the internal variability of the ASM and the influence of external factors on the ASM. Using long-term high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) observed precipitation data, contrary to previous studies on inter-annual timescale, we showed that over the last 110 years, volcanic eruptions have influenced ASM variations on an inter-decadal timescale via teleconnections with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This relationship was also confirmed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. During the active volcanic eruption periods (1901-1935 and 1963-1993), significantly lower ASM precipitation was observed compared with that during the inactive volcanic eruption period (1936-1962). We found that during active volcanic eruption periods, which correspond to a negative AMO state, there is an anomalously weakened Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific that transports less moisture to the ASM region and subsequently reduces ASM precipitation. This new finding may help improve decadal predictions of future changes in the ASM.

  8. The response of Asian summer monsoon to the Tibetan plateau heating simulated by ECHAM5/MPIOM and COSMOS-CLM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah, Bijan; Sodoudi, Sahar; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2014-05-01

    The role of Tibetan plateau in driving the Asian summer monsoon system is still debating. In this study the physical climate model ECHAM5 (European Center, HAMburg) version 5.4.01 /MPIOM (Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) version 1.3.1 is used to study the potential role of Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon. The ECHAM5 model was integrated at T31 resolution with 19 levels and the MPI-OM ocean model at GR30 resolution with 40 levels for a period of 500 years (1500-2000 AD) for two experiments: a) with recent standard orography and b) with no Tibetan plateau. In the sensitivity simulation, we flattened the Tibetan plateau in 10-year time-steps to the final threshold of 500 meters. The subgrid-scale orographic drag was also considered by applying the parameterization scheme from Lott and Miller, 1996. Shallow ocean in the sensitivity simulation reached the equilibrium state after 300 years of integration. Deep ocean did not show an equilibrium state in the simulation with flattened Tibet. The large scale patterns of Asian summer monsoon are mostly unaffected by removing the Tibetan plateau, except a decrease of precipitation for the East China. Spatial pattern of summer surface temperature shows a decrease (up to -10 °C) over North Atlantic Ocean and a remarkable increase (up to 15 °C) over Tibetan plateau. Therefore, Tibet affects the atmospheric teleconnetion between the North Atlantic and the Asian monsoon system. In order to study the local orographically-induced effects on monsoon system, we have further applied the high resolution (horizontal grid spacing of 0.5 ) non-hydrostatic regional COSMO model in CLimate Mode (COSMO-CLM or CCLM) version 4.8_clm17 developed by the German Weather Service. The lateral boundary conditions were derived from the previous Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations. Regional climate model simulations were started from initial conditions on 1 January 1979 for a period of 20 years. In the next step

  9. Simulation of the Indian and East-Asian summer monsoon in the ECMWF model: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K.R.; Potter, G.L.; Boyle, J.S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hameed, S. [State Univ. of New York, Stony Brook, NY (United States). Inst. for Terrestrial and Planetary Atmospheres

    1993-11-01

    The ability of the ECMWF model (Cycle 33) to simulate the Indian and East Asian summer monsoon is evaluated at four different horizontal resolutions: T21, T42, T63, and T106. Generally, with respect to the large scale features of the circulation, the largest differences among the simulations occur at T42 relative to T21. However, on regional scales, important differences among the high frequency temporal variabilitY serve as a further critical test of the model`s ability to simulate the monsoon. More generally, the results indicate the importance of evaluating high frequency time scales as a component of the climate system. T106 best captures both the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Indian and East Asian Monsoon, while T42 fails to correctly simulate the sequence and development of synoptic scale milestones that characterize the monsoon flow. In particular, T106 is superior at simulating the development and migration of the monsoon trough over the Bay of Bengal. In the T42 simulation, the development of the monsoon occurs one month earlier than typically observed. At this time the trough is incorrectly located adjacent to the east coast of India which results in an underestimate of precipitation over the Burma/Thailand region. This early establishment of the monsoon trough affects the evolution of the East-Asian monsoon and yields excessive preseason rainfall over the Mei-yu region. EOF analysis of precipitation over China indicates that T106 best simulates the Mei-yu mode of variability associated with an oscillation of the rainband that gives rise to periods of enhanced rainfall over the Yangize River Valley. The coarse resolution of T21 precludes simulation of the aforementioned regional scale monsoon flows.

  10. The influences of East Asian Monsoon on summer precipitation in Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Li; Shen, Baizhu; Sui, Bo; Huang, Bohua

    2017-03-01

    A unique dataset of 53-year (1961-2013) rainfall measurements from 104 stations uniformly distributed in the Northeast China, combined with the observation-based NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis, is used to analyze the precipitation anomalies in Northeast China during late boreal summer (July-August) and their relationship with the anomalous moisture transport associated with the fluctuations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) circulation. Based on this analysis, a new EASM influence index ( I EASM ) is proposed to quantify the EASM effects on the Northeast China summer precipitation. The relationship between the IEASM variations and patterns of the anomalous regional atmospheric circulation is demonstrated. The characteristics of several precursors that lead to the major fluctuations of the I EASM index are also explored. The results show that the EASM influence index is closely linked to the anomalous rainfall in Northeast China and can be used as a major factor to measure the physical processes that affect the regional dry and wet conditions. The I EASM index responds to the large-scale anomalies of the atmospheric circulation sensitively. Specifically, the high I EASM values are associated with the intensified Mongolia cyclone, blocking developing near the Ural Mountains and a northwestward shift of subtropical high over the western Pacific. The low I EASM values are associated with a reversed pattern of these features. The I EASM anomalous fluctuation has some precursors. A major high (low) index during the summer is likely preceded with the pattern of the sea surface temperature anomalies of an El Niño (La Niña) event in the Pacific from the previous early fall to early winter.

  11. Seasonal Transitions and the Westerly Jet in the Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, W.; Chiang, J. C. H.

    2015-12-01

    The Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) was characterized by a trend to weaker monsoon intensity paced by orbital insolation. Here, we attribute the stronger EASM intensity in the early-mid Holocene to changes in the timing of the transition between the EASM seasonal stages - Spring, pre Mei- Yu, Mei-Yu, and Summer - during that time. Following the recent 'jet transition hypothesis' (Chiang et al., 2015), we explore the role of north-south displacement of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau that is hypothesized to control the downstream EASM seasonality changes across the Holocene. To this end, we analyze model simulations of the Holocene EASM, compare the simulated Holocene climate with the paleodata observations, and examine the role of atmospheric circulation and specifically the westerlies in modulating the East Asia summer climate. The PMIP3 climate model simulations suggest that, compared to the pre-industrial, the Mei-Yu onset and the transition from Mei-Yu to Summer rainfall occur earlier in the mid-Holocene. The advanced seasonal rainfall transition is accompanied by the weakened and northward-shifted upstream westerlies. In our atmospheric general circulation model (coupled to a slab ocean) simulations of various time periods across the Holocene (9ka, 6ka, 3ka, and pre-industrial), we quantitatively show that the timing and the length of each rainfall stage are closely related to the jet position over East Asia. We also show that the simulated changes in the maximum annual rainfall band and dust emission over East Asia largely agree with the paleo-proxy observations. In addition, we find that changes to the seasonal rainfall transitions, latitudinal westerly position, and stationary eddy activity over East Asia co-vary across the Holocene. In particular, we argue that the changes in the rainfall seasonal transitions are tied to an altered stationary wave pattern, resembling today's the so-called 'Silk Road Pattern', riding along the

  12. Interdecadal variations of East Asian summer monsoon northward propagation and influences on summer precipitation over East China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Z.; Yang, S.; He, J.; Li, J.; Liang, J.

    2008-08-01

    The interdecadal variation of northward propagation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and summer precipitation in East China have been investigated using daily surface rainfall from a dense rain gauge network in China for 1957 2001, National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis, and Global Mean Sea Level Pressure Dataset (GMSLP2) from Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Results in general show a consistent agreement on the interdecadal variability of EASM northward propagations. However, it appears that the interdecadal variation is stronger in NCEP than in ECMWF and CRU datasets. A newly defined normalized precipitation index (NPI), a 5-day running mean rainfall normalized with its standard deviation, clearly depicts the characteristics of summer rainbelt activities in East China in terms of jumps and durations during its northward propagations. The EASM northward propagation shows a prominent interdecadal variation. EASM before late 1970s had a rapid northward advance and a northern edge beyond its normal position. As a result, more summer rainfall occurred for the North China rainy season, Huaihe-River Mei-Yu, and South China Mei-Yu. In contrast, EASM after late 1970s had a slow northward movement and a northern edge located south of its normal position. Less summer precipitation occurred in East China except in Yangtze River basin. The EASM northernmost position (ENP), northernmost intensity (ENI), and EASM have a complex and good relationship at interdecadal timescales. They have significant influences on interdecadal variation of the large-scale precipitation anomalies in East China.

  13. Interannual to centennial variability of the South Asian summer monsoon over the past millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Feng; Fang, Keyan; Xu, Chenxi; Guo, Zhengtang; Borgaonkar, H. P.

    2017-10-01

    Proxy-based reconstructions have indicated that the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) has shown interannual- to centennial-scale oscillations over the past millennium; however, the variability and mechanisms that operate over different timescales remain to be explicitly identified. This is firstly because of the inadequate spatial representation within previous SASM reconstructions, which is caused by the scarcity of tree-ring records from the core monsoon region. This study used eight additional Indian tree-ring width chronologies from the core region of the SASM to update the reconstructed SASM index that covers the past 1105 years. We found that the most significant interannual variability of SASM is mainly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the past few hundred years. The decadal/multidecadal oscillations show a high negative/positive correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)/Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) after the late 19th century. The centennial component of the SASM, which accounts for 19.4% of the total variance, begins to weaken from the mid-13th century and reaches a minimum in the mid-15th century. The component gradually strengthens again to reach its peak in the early 17th century, followed by a decline trend toward recent. The centennial variations agree well with historical changes in solar activity before the nineteenth century that caused changes in land-sea thermal contrast. However, the close linkage between the SASM and solar activity has weakened since the Industrial era, probably because of the enhanced influence of anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

  14. Short-term modulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by West Asian dust

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinoj, V.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun; Landu, Kiranmayi; Singh, Balwinder

    2014-03-16

    The Indian summer monsoon is the result of a complex interplay between radiative heating, dynamics and cloud and aerosol interactions. Despite increased scientific attention, the effect of aerosols on monsoons still remains uncertain. Here we present both observational evidence and numerical modeling results demonstrating a remote aerosol link to Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Rainfall over central India is positively correlated to natural aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia. Simulations using a state-of-the-art global climate model support this remote aerosol link and indicate that dust aerosols induce additional moisture transport and convergence over Central India, producing increased monsoon rainfall. The convergence is driven through solar heating and latent heating within clouds over West Asia that increases surface winds over the Arabian Sea. On the other hand, sea-salt aerosol tends to counteract the effect of dust and reduces rainfall. Our findings highlight the importance of natural aerosols in modulating the strength of the Indian summer monsoon, and motivate additional research in how changes in background aerosols of natural origin may be influencing long-term trends in monsoon precipitation.

  15. Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability

    CERN Document Server

    Molteni, F; Ferranti, L; Slingo, J M

    2003-01-01

    The effects of SST anomalies on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon have been studied by multivariate statistical analyses of 850-hPa wind and rainfall fields simulated in a set of ensemble integrations of the ECMWF atmospheric GCM, referred to as the PRISM experiments. The simulations used observed SSTs (PRISM-O), covering 9 years characterised by large variations of the ENSO phenomenon in the 1980's and the early 1990's. A parallel set of simulations was also performed with climatological SSTs (PRISM-C), thus enabling the influence of SST forcing on the modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability to be investigated. As in observations, the model's interannual variability is dominated by a zonally-oriented mode which describes the north-south movement of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). This mode appears to be independent of SST forcing and its robustness between the PRISM-O and PRISM-C simulations suggests that it is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics. O...

  16. Rapid retreat of the East Asian summer monsoon in the middle Holocene and a millennial weak monsoon interval at 9 ka in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Jinguo; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Kong, Xinggong; Wu, Chung-Che; Hu, Hsun-Ming; Ren, Haojia; Wang, Yi

    2018-01-01

    Knowledge of hydroclimatic dynamics in the East Asian monsoon region during the Holocene was hindered by few absolutely-dated and decadally-resolved proxy records in northern China. Here we present replicated carbonate δ18O records of six stalagmites with sub-decadal to multi-decadal resolutions from the Lianhua cave to reveal a detailed evolution of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) intensity in northern China since 11.5 thousand years before present (ka BP, before 1950 CE). Our composite record shows that solar forcing dominated hydroclimatic changes regionally, including an intensified monsoon at the Holocene Optimum from the termination of Younger Dryas to 6.5 ka BP, and a subsequent multi-millennial weakening monsoon, that agrees with cave records in central and southern China. However, the EASM has retreated southwards more rapidly than the Indian summer monsoon after ∼6.5 ka BP, resulting in aridity conditions occurring at 4.0 ka BP in northern China, which is almost 2000-year earlier than that in central and southern China. This north-south asynchroneity is likely related to the different regional responses among the coupling of the EASM, Indian summer monsoon, the solar forcing, and the differences in thermal forcing due to complex geographical configurations. In addition, a relative enrichment of 1‰ in 18O data of the Lianhua record from 9.5 to 8.1 ka BP shows that the Holocene Optimum was punctuated by a millennial-long weakening monsoon interval, which is not registered among previous cave records in central and southern China. The fresh water-induced cold climate conditions in the North Atlantic region could create stronger East Asian winter monsoon, and induce a weakened EASM and a southward shift of rain belt in northern China. Therefore, it shall not be surprised that there are strong heterogeneities among regional hydroclimatic conditions across monsoonal China, given the complex interplay between external and internal forcing mechanisms

  17. Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annamalai, H. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2014-09-15

    The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical

  18. The Eurasian ice sheet reinforces the East Asian summer monsoon during the interglacial 500 000 years ago

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiuzhen Yin

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Deep-sea and ice-core records show that interglacial periods were overall less "warm" before about 420 000 years ago than after, with relatively higher ice volume and lower greenhouse gases concentration. This is particularly the case for the interglacial Marine Isotope Stage 13 which occurred about 500 000 years ago. However, by contrast, the loess and other proxy records from China suggest an exceptionally active East Asian summer monsoon during this interglacial. A three-dimension Earth system Model of Intermediate complexity was used to understand this seeming paradox. The astronomical forcing and the remnant ice sheets present in Eurasia and North America were taken into account in a series of sensitivity experiments. Expectedly, the seasonal contrast is larger and the East Asian summer monsoon is reinforced compared to Pre-Industrial time when Northern Hemisphere summer is at perihelion. Surprisingly, the presence of the Eurasian ice sheet was found to reinforce monsoon, too, through a south-eastwards perturbation planetary wave. The trajectory of this wave is influenced by the Tibetan plateau.

  19. The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM precipitation to long term changes in regional anthropogenic aerosols (sulphate and black carbon is explored in an atmospheric general circulation model, the atmospheric component of the UK High-Resolution Global Environment Model v1.2 (HiGAM. Separately, sulphur dioxide (SO2 and black carbon (BC emissions in 1950 and 2000 over East Asia are used to drive model simulations, while emissions are kept constant at year 2000 level outside this region. The response of the EASM is examined by comparing simulations driven by aerosol emissions representative of 1950 and 2000. The aerosol radiative effects are also determined using an off-line radiative transfer model. During June, July and August, the EASM was not significantly changed as either SO2 or BC emissions increased from 1950 to 2000 levels. However, in September, precipitation is significantly decreased by 26.4% for sulphate aerosol and 14.6% for black carbon when emissions are at the 2000 level. Over 80% of the decrease is attributed to changes in convective precipitation. The cooler land surface temperature over China in September (0.8 °C for sulphate and 0.5 °C for black carbon due to increased aerosols reduces the surface thermal contrast that supports the EASM circulation. However, mechanisms causing the surface temperature decrease in September are different between sulphate and BC experiments. In the sulphate experiment, the sulphate direct and the 1st indirect radiative effects contribute to the surface cooling. In the BC experiment, the BC direct effect is the main driver of the surface cooling, however, a decrease in low cloud cover due to the increased heating by BC absorption partially counteracts the direct effect. This results in a weaker land surface temperature response to BC changes than to sulphate changes. The resulting precipitation response is also weaker, and the responses of the monsoon circulation

  20. Multi-Decadal Modulations in the Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, H.; Machimura, T.; Ogawa, S.; Kosaka, Y.; Nishii, K.; Miyasaka, T.

    2015-12-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon fluctuates from its climatological activity on monthly and interannual time scales, and the most dominant pattern of the variability is known as the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern. Characterized by a meridional teleconnection in anomalous activity of the Meiyu/Baiu rainband, tropical storms and a surface subtropical anticyclone (the Bonin High) in between, the PJ pattern exerts substantial influence on summertime climatic conditions over East Asia and the western North Pacific. Despite the recent warming trend observed in its background state, no assessment thus far has been made on how substantially the PJ has undergone, if any, multi-decadal modulations in its structure and/or dominance. Through an EOF analysis applied to a new dataset of global atmospheric reanalysis (JRA-55), the predominance of the PJ pattern is confirmed as being extracted in the leading EOF of lower-tropospheric monthly vorticity anomalies over 55 recent years. Both efficient barotropic/baroclinic energy conversion from the climatological-mean state and efficient generation of available potential energy through anomalous convective activity over the tropical western Pacific are shown to be essential for the maintenance of the monthly atmospheric anomalies of the PJ pattern over the entire 55-year period. At the same time, however, the same EOF analysis as above but applied separately to each of the sub-periods reveals a distinct signature of long-term modulations in amplitude and thus the dominance of the PJ pattern. While being extracted in the first EOF up to the 1980s, the PJ pattern is extracted in the second EOF in the period since the 1990s with marked reductions in both the variance fraction explained and the efficiency of energy conversion/generation. The resultant modulations of the summertime meridional teleconnection are also discussed with implications for future changes.

  1. Multidecadally resolved Asian summer monsoon dynamics during MIS 5a-5d

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, C. C.; Jiang, X.; Hu, H. M.; Spoetl, C.

    2016-12-01

    A strong correlation between the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and the North Atlantic climate on millennial and sub-millennial timescales during the last glacial period (MIS 4-2) and deglacial sequence has been demonstrated. However, our knowledge of this millennial- and sub-millennial-scale climatic link before MIS 4 is limited. Here, we present a new U-Th-dated absolute chronology of ASM variability from 113.5 to 86.6 kyr BP, covering marine isotope stages (MIS) 5a-5d. This integrated multidecadally resolved record, based on 1435 oxygen isotope data and 46 U-Th dates with 2-sigma errors as low as ±0.3 kyr from three stalagmites collected in Sanxing Cave, southwestern China, can be a reference for calibrating paleoclimate proxy sequences. The Sanxing oxygen isotope record follows the 23 kyr precessional cycle of insolation and is punctuated by prominent millennial-scale oscillations of the Chinese Interstadials (CIS) 25 to 22, corresponding to Greenland Interstadials (GIS) 25 to 22. A centennial-scale precursor event at 104.1 ± 0.3 kyr BP preceding CIS 23 is clearly registered. These events in the Sanxing record are synchronous with those identified in stalagmites from the European Alps (NALPS), except for the onset of GIS 25 and the end of GIS 22, and are up to 2.3 kyr older than the corresponding ones in Greenland ice core records. The high degree of similarity of the oxygen isotope records between Sanxing Cave and Greenland supports the northern hemisphere forcing of the ASM. The anti-phase relationship of oxygen isotope records between Sanxing stalagmites and Antarctic ice cores suggests an additional ASM linkage to the Southern Hemisphere.

  2. Precisely dated multidecadally resolved Asian summer monsoon dynamics 113.5-86.6 thousand years ago

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Xiaoyan; He, Yaoqi; Hu, Hsun-Ming; Li, Zhizhong; Spötl, Christoph; Shen, Chuan-Chou

    2016-07-01

    We present a new 230Th-dated absolute chronology of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability from 113.5 to 86.6 kyr BP (before 1950 AD). This integrated multidecadally resolved record, based on 1435 oxygen isotope data and 46 230Th dates with 2-sigma errors as low as ±0.3 kyr from three stalagmites collected in Sanxing Cave, southwestern China, can be a new reference for calibrating paleoclimate proxy sequences. The Sanxing δ18O record follows the 23 kyr precessional cycle of insolation and is punctuated by prominent millennial-scale oscillations of the Chinese Interstadials (CIS) 25 to 22, corresponding to Greenland Interstadials (GIS) 25 to 22. The onset of CIS 25, 24, 23 and 22 is dated to 113.1 ± 0.4, 108.1 ± 0.3, 103.7 ± 0.3 and 91.4 ± 0.6 kyr BP in the Sanxing record, respectively. The end of CIS 24 and CIS 22 is constrained to 105.5 ± 0.4 and 87.7 ± 0.3 kyr BP, respectively. A centennial-scale precursor event at 104.1 ± 0.3 kyr BP preceding CIS 23 is clearly registered. These events in the Sanxing record are synchronous with those identified in stalagmites from the European Alps (NALPS), except for the onset of GIS 25 and the end of GIS 22, and differ by up to 2.3 kyr from the corresponding ones in Greenland ice core records. The high degree of similarity of the δ18O records between Sanxing Cave and Greenland supports a Northern Hemisphere forcing of the ASM. The anti-phase relationship of δ18O records between Sanxing stalagmites and Antarctic ice cores suggests an additional ASM linkage to the Southern Hemisphere.

  3. Competing Atmospheric and Surface-Driven Impacts of Absorbing Aerosols on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persad, G.; Paynter, D.; Ming, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.

    2015-12-01

    Absorbing aerosols, by attenuating shortwave radiation within the atmosphere and reemitting it as longwave radiation, redistribute energy both vertically within the surface-atmosphere column and horizontally between polluted and unpolluted regions. East Asia has the largest concentrations of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols globally, and these, along with the region's scattering aerosols, have both reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface regionally ("solar dimming") and increased shortwave absorption within the atmosphere, particularly during the peak months of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). We here analyze how atmospheric absorption and surface solar dimming compete in driving the response of EASM circulation to anthropogenic absorbing aerosols, which dominates, and why—issues of particular importance for predicting how the EASM will respond to projected changes in absorbing and scattering aerosol emissions in the future. We probe these questions in a state-of-the-art general circulation model (GCM) using a combination of realistic and idealized aerosol perturbations that allow us to analyze the relative influence of absorbing aerosols' atmospheric and surface-driven impacts on EASM circulation. In combination, our results make clear that, although absorption-driven dimming has a less detrimental effect on EASM circulation than purely scattering-driven dimming, aerosol absorption is still a net impairment to EASM strength when both its atmospheric and surface effects are considered. Because atmospheric heating is not efficiently conveyed to the surface, the surface dimming and associated cooling from even a pure absorber is sufficient to counteract its atmospheric heating, resulting in a net reduction in EASM strength. These findings elevate the current understanding of the impacts of aerosol absorption on the EASM, improving our ability to diagnose EASM responses to current and future regional changes in aerosol emissions.

  4. ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.

    2017-10-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  5. Role of west Asian surface pressure in summer monsoon onset over central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Arindam; Agrawal, Shubhi

    2017-07-01

    Using rain-gauge measurements and reanalysis data sets for 1948-2015, we propose a mechanism that controls the interannual variation of summer monsoon onset over central India. In May, about a month before the onset, the low level jet over the Arabian Sea is about 40% stronger and about 2.5 degrees northward during years of early onset as compared to years of late onset. A stronger and northward shifted low level jet carries about 50% more moisture in early onset years, which increases low level moist static energy over central India in the pre-monsoon season. The increase in low level moist static energy decreases the stability of the atmosphere and makes it conducive for convection. The strength and position of the low level jet are determined by surface pressure gradient between western Asia and the west-equatorial Indian Ocean. Thus, an anomalous surface pressure low over western Asia in the pre-monsoon season increases this gradient and strengthens the jet. Moreover, a stronger low level jet increases the meridional shear of zonal wind and supports the formation of an onset vortex in a stronger baroclinic atmosphere. These developments are favourable for an early onset of the monsoon over the central Indian region. Our study postulates a new physical mechanism for the interannual variation of onset over central India, the core of the Indian monsoon region and relevant to Indian agriculture, and could be tested for real-time prediction.

  6. The role of May vegetation greenness on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau for East Asian summer monsoon prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jingyong; Wu, Lingyun; Huang, Gang; Zhu, Wenquan; Zhang, Yan

    2011-03-01

    It is well known that the slowly varying oceanic processes provide the primary source for East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) predictability. However, the memory inherent in the land surface state is less well understood or applied toward the EASM prediction. Here we investigate the role of antecedent vegetation conditions over East Asia for the EASM variation and prediction using March, April, May, and spring mean satellite-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period of 1982-2006. Results show that May vegetation greenness on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) is most closely linked to the EASM, accounting for about half of the total EASM variance. May vegetation greenness on the southeastern TP has significant and positive correlations with summer rainfall over the southeastern TP, East Asian summer subtropical frontal region, and many areas of northern China. We further discuss the possible physical mechanism explaining our findings. It is proposed that increased TP vegetation greenness enhances surface thermal effects, which subsequently warm atmospheric temperature, as well as strengthen ascending motion, convergence at the lower layers and divergence at the higher layers, and summer monsoon circulation. Finally, a linear regression model is developed to predict the EASM strength by combination of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the vegetation greenness. Hindcast for the period 1982-2006 shows that the use of the southeastern TP vegetation information can highly improve the EASM prediction skill compared to that using ENSO alone.

  7. Mineralogical evidence of reduced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall on the Chinese loess plateau during the early Pleistocene interglacials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xianqiang; Liu, Lianwen; Wang, Xingchen T.; Balsam, William; Chen, Jun; Ji, Junfeng

    2018-03-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important component of the global climate system. A better understanding of EASM rainfall variability in the past can help constrain climate models and better predict the response of EASM to ongoing global warming. The warm early Pleistocene, a potential analog of future climate, is an important period to study EASM dynamics. However, existing monsoon proxies for reconstruction of EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene fail to disentangle monsoon rainfall changes from temperature variations, complicating the comparison of these monsoon records with climate models. Here, we present three 2.6 million-year-long EASM rainfall records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) based on carbonate dissolution, a novel proxy for rainfall intensity. These records show that the interglacial rainfall on the CLP was lower during the early Pleistocene and then gradually increased with global cooling during the middle and late Pleistocene. These results are contrary to previous suggestions that a warmer climate leads to higher monsoon rainfall on tectonic timescales. We propose that the lower interglacial EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene was caused by reduced sea surface temperature gradients across the equatorial Pacific, providing a testable hypothesis for climate models.

  8. Role of Atmospheric Circulation and Westerly Jet Changes in the mid-Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, W.; Chiang, J. C. H.

    2014-12-01

    The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) varies on inter-decadal to interglacial-glacial timescales. The EASM is stronger in the mid-Holocene than today, and these changes can be readily explained by orbitally-driven insolation increase during the boreal summer. However, a detailed understanding of the altered seasonal evolution of the EASM during this time is still lacking. In particular, previous work has suggested a close link between seasonal migration of the EASM and that of the mid-latitude westerlies impinging on the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we explore, this problem in PMIP3 climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene, focusing on the role of atmospheric circulation and in particular how the westerly jet modulates the East Asia summer climate on paleoclimate timescales. Analysis of the model simulations suggests that, compared to the preindustrial simulations, the transition from Mei-Yu to deep summer rainfall occurs earlier in the mid-Holocene. This is accompanied by an earlier weakening and northward shift of westerly jet away from the Tibetan Plateau. The variation in the strength and the 3-D structure of the westerly jet in the mid-Holocene is summarized. We find that changes to the monsoonal rainfall, westerly jet and meridional circulation covary on paleoclimate timescales. Meridional wind changes in particular are tied to an altered stationary wave pattern, resembling today's the so-called 'Silk Road' teleconnection pattern, riding along the westerly jet. Diagnostic analysis also reveals changes in moist static energy and eddy energy fluxes associated with the earlier seasonal transition of the EASM. Our analyses suggest that the westerly jet is critical to the altered dynamics of the East Asian summer monsoon during the mid-Holocene.

  9. Numerical Modeling of Topography-Modulated Dust Aerosol Distribution and Its Influence on the Onset of East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Sun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A regional climate model coupled with a dust module was used to simulate dust aerosol distribution and its effects on the atmospheric heat source over the TP, East Asian summer monsoon onset, and precipitation in East Asia modulated by the uplift of the northern TP. We carried out four experiments, including a modern (i.e., high-mountain experiment with (HMD and without (HM the major deserts in Northwest China and a low-mountain experiment with (LMD and without (LM the deserts. The results show that dust greatly increases in the Taklamakan Desert accompanied with the uplift of the northern TP, and the increase exceeds 150 µg kg−1 in spring. A strong cyclone in the Tarim Basin produced by the uplifted northern TP enhances dust emissions in the Taklamakan Desert in summer. Meanwhile, the dust loading over the TP also increases induced by the uplift of the northern TP, causing the heat source over the TP decreased. Under the condition of the northern TP uplift to present altitude, dust delays the East Asia summer monsoon onset by two pentads and one pentad, respectively, in the southern and northern monsoon regions and greatly suppresses precipitation in East Asia compared with results in the low terrain experiments.

  10. Equatorward dispersion of the Sarychev volcanic plume and the relation to the Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xue; Griessbach, Sabine; Hoffmann, Lars

    2017-04-01

    Sulfur dioxide emissions and subsequent sulfate aerosols from strong volcanic eruptions have large impact on global climate. Although most of previous studies attribute the global influence to volcanic eruptions in the tropics, high-latitude volcanic eruptions are also an important cause for global climate variations. In fact, the potential climate impact of volcanic also largely depends on the season when eruptions occur, the erupted plume height and the surrounding meteorological conditions. This work focuses on the eruption of a high-latitude volcano Sarychev, and the role of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during the transport and dispersion of the erupted plumes. First, the sulfur dioxide emission rate and height of emission of the Sarychev eruption in June 2009 are modelled using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model named Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC), together with sulfur dioxide observations of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS/Aqua) and a backward trajectory approach. Then, the transport and dispersion of the plumes are modelled with MPTRAC and validated with sulfur dioxide observations from AIRS and aerosol observations from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). The modelled trajectories and the MIPAS data both show the plumes are transported towards the tropics from the southeast edge of the ASM (in the vertical range of 340-400K) controlled by the clockwise winds of ASM, and from above the ASM (above 400K) in form of in-mixing process. Especially, in the vertical range around 340-400K, a transport barrier based on potential vorticity (PV) gradients separates the 'aerosol hole' inside of the ASM circulation and the aerosol-rich surrounding area, which shows the PV gradients based barrier may be more practical than the barrier based on the geopotential height. With help of ASM circulation, the aerosol transported to the tropics and stayed in the tropical lower stratosphere for about eight months

  11. Influence of the Anticyclonic Anomaly in the Subtropical Jet over the Western Tibetan Plateau on the Intraseasonal Variability of the Summer Asian Monsoon in Early Summer

    OpenAIRE

    Watanabe, Takeshi; Yamazaki, Koji

    2012-01-01

    The upper-level troposphere over the western Tibetan Plateau, where the subtropical jet is located in summer, is a region of marked intraseasonal variability in geopotential height (GPH). This study investigates the influence of an anomaly in this region on the summer Asian monsoon. To this end, the GPH index is defined as the daily geopotential height anomaly at 200 hPa over the region based on 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. Composites wit...

  12. Stable Carbon Isotope Ratios in Atmospheric VOC across the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone obtained during the OMO-ASIA campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krebsbach, Marc; Koppmann, Ralf; Meisehen, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    The automated high volume air sampling system (MIRAH) has been deployed during the atmospheric measurement campaign OMO-ASIA (Oxidation Mechanism Observations) with the German High Altitude - Long-range research aircraft (HALO) in July and August 2015. The intensive measurement period with base stations in Paphos (Cyprus) and Gan (Maldives) focussed on oxidation processes and air pollution chemistry downwind of the South Asia summer monsoon anticyclone, a pivot area critical for air quality and climate change, both regionally and worldwide. The measurement region covered the Eastern Mediterranean region, the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, and the Arabian Sea. In total 194 air samples were collected on 17 flights in a height region from 3 km up to 15 km. The air samples were analysed for stable carbon isotope ratios in VOC with GC-C-IRMS in the laboratory afterwards. We determined stable carbon isotope ratios and mixing ratios of several aldehydes, ketones, alcohols, and aromatics. The large extent of the investigated area allowed for encountering air masses with different origin, characteristic, and atmospheric processing, e.g. Mediterranean air masses, crossing of polluted filaments and remnants of the Asian monsoon outflow, split of the Asian monsoon anticyclone. In this presentation we will show first results and interpretations supported by HYSPLIT backward trajectories.

  13. Rainfall trends in the South Asian summer monsoon and its related large-scale dynamics with focus over Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M.; Syed, F. S.; Hannachi, A.

    2017-06-01

    The study of regional rainfall trends over South Asia is critically important for food security and economy, as both these factors largely depend on the availability of water. In this study, South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trends on seasonal and monthly (June-September) time scales have been investigated using three observational data sets. Our analysis identify a dipole-type structure in rainfall trends over the region north of the Indo-Pak subcontinent, with significant increasing trends over the core monsoon region of Pakistan and significant decreasing trends over the central-north India and adjacent areas. The dipole is also evident in monthly rainfall trend analyses, which is more prominent in July and August. We show, in particular, that the strengthening of northward moisture transport over the Arabian Sea is a likely reason for the significant positive trend of rainfall in the core monsoon region of Pakistan. In contrast, over the central-north India region, the rainfall trends are significantly decreasing due to the weakening of northward moisture transport over the Bay of Bengal. The leading empirical orthogonal functions clearly show the strengthening (weakening) patterns of vertically integrated moisture transport over the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) in seasonal and monthly interannual time scales. The regression analysis between the principal components and rainfall confirm the dipole pattern over the region. Our results also suggest that the extra-tropical phenomena could influence the mean monsoon rainfall trends over Pakistan by enhancing the cross-equatorial flow of moisture into the Arabian Sea.

  14. Impact of atmospheric circulation types on southwest Asian dust and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Houssos, E. E.; Solmon, F.; Legrand, M.; Rashki, A.; Dumka, U. C.; Francois, P.; Gautam, R.; Singh, R. P.

    2018-03-01

    This study examines the meteorological feedback on dust aerosols and rainfall over the Arabian Sea and India during the summer monsoon using satellite data, re-analysis and a regional climate model. Based on days with excess aerosol loading over the central Ganges basin during May - September, two distinct atmospheric circulation types (weather clusters) are identified, which are associated with different dust-aerosol and rainfall distributions over south Asia, highlighting the role of meteorology on dust emissions and monsoon rainfall. Each cluster is characterized by different patterns of mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa (Z700) and wind fields at 1000 hPa and at 700 hPa, thus modulating changes in dust-aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea. One cluster is associated with deepening of the Indian/Pakistan thermal low leading to (i) increased cyclonicity and thermal convection over northwestern India and Arabian Peninsula, (ii) intensification of the southwest monsoon off the Horn of Africa, iii) increase in dust emissions from Rub-Al-Khali and Somalian deserts, (iv) excess dust accumulation over the Arabian Sea and, (v) strengthening of the convergence of humid air masses and larger precipitation over Indian landmass compared to the other cluster. The RegCM4.4 model simulations for dust-aerosol and precipitation distributions support the meteorological fields and satellite observations, while the precipitation over India is positively correlated with the aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea on daily basis for both weather clusters. This study highlights the key role of meteorology and atmospheric dynamics on dust life cycle and rainfall over the monsoon-influenced south Asia.

  15. Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Kyung-Ja; Seo, Ye-Won; Lee, June-Yi; Kripalani, R. H.; Yun, Kyung-Sook

    2017-07-01

    The relationship between the South Asia monsoon (SAM) and the East Asia monsoon (EAM) possibly modulated by both external forcings and internal dynamics has been a long-standing and controversial issue in climate sciences. This study reviews their linkages as revealed in modern records and model simulations during the past, present and future, and provides a comprehensive explanation of the key mechanisms controlling the diversity of the SAM-EAM relationship. Particular attention is paid to several external forcings that modulate the relationship, including El Niño and Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IODM), boreal summer teleconnections, and Eurasian snow extent on intraseasonal to interdecadal timescales. The major focus is placed on two integral views of the inter-connection between the two monsoon systems: one is the positive inter-correlation, which is associated with decaying El Niño and developing Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) warming anomalies; the other is the negative inter-correlation, resulting from developing El Niño and western Pacific SST cooling. The IODM mode also has a delayed impact on the negative connection by modulating Eurasian snow cover. The observed evidence reveals that the recent intensification of the negative relationship is attributable to the strengthening of the zonal SST gradient along the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, and eastern Pacific. Analysis of experiments in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project further indicates a possibility for the negative linkage to be further enhanced under anthropogenic global warming with considerable interdecadal modulation in mid and late twenty-first century.

  16. Impacts of a warming marginal sea on torrential rainfall organized under the Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manda, Atsuyoshi; Nakamura, Hisashi; Asano, Naruhiko; Iizuka, Satoshi; Miyama, Toru; Moteki, Qoosaku; Yoshioka, Mayumi K.; Nishii, Kazuaki; Miyasaka, Takafumi

    2014-07-01

    Monsoonal airflow from the tropics triggers torrential rainfall over coastal regions of East Asia in summer, bringing flooding situations into areas of growing population and industries. However, impacts of rapid seasonal warming of the shallow East China Sea ECS and its pronounced future warming upon extreme summertime rainfall have not been explored. Here we show through cloudresolving atmospheric model simulations that observational tendency for torrential rainfall events over western Japan to occur most frequently in July cannot be reproduced without the rapid seasonal warming of ECS. The simulations also suggest that the future ECS warming will increase precipitation substantially in such an extreme event as observed in midJuly 2012 and also the likelihood of such an event occurring in June. A need is thus urged for reducing uncertainties in future temperature projections over ECS and other marginal seas for better projections of extreme summertime rainfall in the surrounding areas.

  17. Different orbital rhythms in the Asian summer monsoon records from North and South China during the Pleistocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ao, H.; Dekkers, M.J.; Xiao, G.; Yang, X.; Qin, L.; Liu, X; Qiang, X.; Chang, H.; Zhao, H.

    2012-01-01

    Here we construct a Pleistocene astronomical timescale for the Nihewan fluvio–lacustrine sediments (North China), via tuning a stacked summer monsoon index generated from grain size and low-field magnetic susceptibility records to orbital obliquity and precession. Combining the summer monsoon

  18. Mid-late Holocene Paleoflood Reconstruction at Tianchi Lake, Liupan Mountains and its Possible Relation with Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, C.; Zhou, A.; Zhao, C.

    2016-12-01

    The flood, one of the major natural hazards, resulted in serious damages and losses of human life and economy frequently all over the world. As we see, human activity intensify the risk of flood hazards by changing global water cycle. However, the instrumental data only limited to the last 150 years, are too short to identify decadal to centennial-scale climatic fluctuations and discuss the climate-flood relationship. Therefore, we present a 6200-year long flood reconstruction from East Asian monsoon margin, based on reliable dated sedimentry flood deposits in Tianchi Lake. We display that 13 great floods are recorded in EM1 (end-member 1) decomposed from grain-size and these are verified by other proxies such as elements, redness and paleoflood records reconstructed from the Yellow River and its tributaries in northern China and historical documents in Weihe River. Furthermore, compared to late-Holocene, the frequency of great floods enhance substantially between 6200Cal yr BP and 4000Cal yr BP when Asian summer monsoon is strengthen. The incresed flood frequncy may be triggered by ENSO and rising of SST over West Pacific related to solar activity. In the paleoclimatic perspective, this paper point out that we should pay more attention to furture flood under the background of global warming

  19. Regional climatic effects according to different estimations of biogenic volatile organic compounds during the asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyung-Jin; Takata, Kumiko; Tanaka, Katsunori; Yamashima, Ryoji; Matsumoto, Jun; Saito, Kazuyuki; Takemura, Toshihiko; Yasunari, Tetsuzo

    2014-08-01

    A series of 60-year numerical experiments starting from 1851 was conducted using a global climate model coupled with an aerosol-cloud-radiation model to investigate the response of the Asian summer monsoon to variations in the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) flux induced by two different estimations of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. One estimation was obtained from a pre-existing archive and the other was generated by a next-generation model (the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN). The use of MEGAN resulted in an overall increase of the SOA production through a higher rate of gasto-particle conversion of BVOCs. Consequently, the atmospheric loading of organic carbon (OC) increased due to the contribution of SOA to OC aerosol. The increase of atmospheric OC aerosols was prominent in particular in the Indian subcontinent and Indochina Peninsula (IP) during the pre- and early-monsoon periods because the terrestrial biosphere is the major source of BVOC emissions and the atmospheric aerosol concentration diminishes rapidly with the arrival of monsoon rainfall. As the number of atmospheric OC particles increased, the number concentrations of cloud droplets increased, but their size decreased. These changes represent a combination of aerosol-cloud interactions that were favorable to rainfall suppression. However, the modeled precipitation was slightly enhanced in May over the oceans that surround the Indian subcontinent and IP. Further analysis revealed that a compensating updraft in the surrounding oceans was induced by the thermally-driven downdraft in the IP, which was a result of surface cooling associated with direct OC aerosol radiative forcing, and was able to surpass the aerosolcloud interactions. The co-existence of oceanic ascending motion with the maximum convective available potential energy was also found to be crucial for rainfall formation. Although the model produced statistically significant rainfall

  20. Trapping, chemistry, and export of trace gases in the South Asian summer monsoon observed during CARIBIC flights in 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rauthe-Schöch

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container passenger aircraft observatory performed in situ measurements at 10–12 km altitude in the South Asian summer monsoon anticyclone between June and September 2008. These measurements enable us to investigate this atmospheric region (which so far has mostly been observed from satellites using the broad suite of trace gases and aerosol particles measured by CARIBIC. Elevated levels of a variety of atmospheric pollutants (e.g. carbon monoxide, total reactive nitrogen oxides, aerosol particles, and several volatile organic compounds were recorded. The measurements provide detailed information about the chemical composition of air in different parts of the monsoon anticyclone, particularly of ozone precursors. While covering a range of 3500 km inside the monsoon anticyclone, CARIBIC observations show remarkable consistency, i.e. with distinct latitudinal patterns of trace gases during the entire monsoon period. Using the CARIBIC trace gas and aerosol particle measurements in combination with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, we investigated the characteristics of monsoon outflow and the chemical evolution of air masses during transport. The trajectory calculations indicate that these air masses originated mainly from South Asia and mainland Southeast Asia. Estimated photochemical ages of the air were found to agree well with transport times from a source region east of 90–95° E. The photochemical ages of the air in the southern part of the monsoon anticyclone were systematically younger (less than 7 days and the air masses were mostly in an ozone-forming chemical mode. In its northern part the air masses were older (up to 13 days and had unclear ozone formation or destruction potential. Based on analysis of forward trajectories, several receptor regions were identified. In addition to predominantly westward

  1. Characteristics of medium range rainfall forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, K. J.; Iyengar, G. R.

    1999-05-01

    Mean characteristics of the rainfall forecasts produced by the global data analysis-forecast system of India are examined for the summer monsoons of 1993-1996. Further, daily rainfall forecasts (accumulated for 24 h) extending from day 1 to day 5 are utilised to compute monthly/seasonal mean forecast fields to study their consistency and reliability. Global patterns of rainfall forecasts are also compared with the large scale rainfall climatological fields. In addition, observed rainfall distributions over India are used for regional verification of the medium range rainfall forecasts.The forecasts appear to reproduce most of the large scale features of rainfall, except the sharp gradients over the Deccan plateau (leeside of the Western Ghats - west coast mountains over the south of Peninsular India) and the Gangetic plains over the north of India. Further, it is found that the forecast model has a characteristic tendency to reduce the quantum of rainfall over northwest India and the north Indian plains to the south of the Himalayas. In addition, in this study, certain aspects of the year-to-year variability of the predicted rainfall fields and their associated characteristics are examined along with the other systematic errors of the model. It is found that in this case, the sources of systematic errors could at least partially be eliminated, the rainfall forecasts up to day 3 or so can become a very useful product of interest.

  2. Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sun-Seon; Ha, Kyung-Ja [Pusan National University, Division of Earth Environmental System, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Schemm, Jae Kyung E. [Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-03-15

    Long-lead prediction of waxing and waning of the Western North Pacific (WNP)-East Asian (EA) summer monsoon (WNP-EASM) precipitation is a major challenge in seasonal time-scale climate prediction. In this study, deficiencies and potential for predicting the WNP-EASM precipitation and circulation one or two seasons ahead were examined using retrospective forecast data for the 26-year period of 1981-2006 from two operational couple models which are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BMRC) Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). While both coupled models have difficulty in predicting summer mean precipitation anomalies over the region of interest, even for a 0-month lead forecast, they are capable of predicting zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa several months ahead and, consequently, satisfactorily predict summer monsoon circulation indices for the EA region (EASMI) and for the WNP region (WNPSMI). It should be noted that the two models' multi-model ensemble (MME) reaches 0.40 of the correlation skill for the EASMI with a January initial condition and 0.75 for the WNPSMI with a February initial condition. Further analysis indicates that prediction reliability of the EASMI is related not only to the preceding El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but also to simultaneous local SST variability. On other hand, better prediction of the WNPSMI is accompanied by a more realistic simulation of lead-lag relationship between the index and ENSO. It should also be noted that current coupled models have difficulty in capturing the interannual variability component of the WNP-EASM system which is not correlated with typical ENSO variability. To improve the long-lead seasonal prediction of the WNP-EASM precipitation, a statistical postprocessing was developed based on the multiple linear regression method. The method utilizes the MME prediction of the EASMI and

  3. The effect of Arabian Sea optical properties on SST biases and the South Asian summer monsoon in a coupled GCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A.G.; Joshi, M.; Robertson, E.S.; Woolnough, S.J. [University of Reading, NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute for Climate System Research, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-08-15

    This study examines the effect of seasonally varying chlorophyll on the climate of the Arabian Sea and South Asian monsoon. The effect of such seasonality on the radiative properties of the upper ocean is often a missing process in coupled general circulation models and its large amplitude in the region makes it a pertinent choice for study to determine any impact on systematic biases in the mean and seasonality of the Arabian Sea. In this study we examine the effects of incorporating a seasonal cycle in chlorophyll due to phytoplankton blooms in the UK Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM HadCM3. This is achieved by performing experiments in which the optical properties of water in the Arabian Sea - a key signal of the semi-annual cycle of phytoplankton blooms in the region - are calculated from a chlorophyll climatology derived from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data. The SeaWiFS chlorophyll is prescribed in annual mean and seasonally-varying experiments. In response to the chlorophyll bloom in late spring, biases in mixed layer depth are reduced by up to 50% and the surface is warmed, leading to increases in monsoon rainfall during the onset period. However when the monsoons are fully established in boreal winter and summer and there are strong surface winds and a deep mixed layer, biases in the mixed layer depth are reduced but the surface undergoes cooling. The seasonality of the response of SST to chlorophyll is found to depend on the relative depth of the mixed layer to that of the anomalous penetration depth of solar fluxes. Thus the inclusion of the effects of chlorophyll on radiative properties of the upper ocean acts to reduce biases in mixed layer depth and increase seasonality in SST. (orig.)

  4. The 9.2 ka event in Asian summer monsoon area: the strongest millennial scale collapse of the monsoon during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenchao; Yan, Hong; Dodson, John; Cheng, Peng; Liu, Chengcheng; Li, Jianyong; Lu, Fengyan; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

    2017-06-01

    Numerous Holocene paleo-proxy records exhibit a series of centennial-millennial scale rapid climatic events. Unlike the widely acknowledged 8.2 ka climate anomaly, the likelihood of a significant climate excursion at around 9.2 cal ka BP, which has been notably recognized in some studies, remains to be fully clarified in terms of its magnitude and intensity, as well as its characteristics and spatial distributions in a range of paleoclimatic records. In this study, a peat sediment profile from the Dajiuhu Basin in central China was collected with several geochemical proxies and a pollen analysis carried out to help improve understanding of the climate changes around 9.2 cal ka BP. The results show that the peat development was interrupted abruptly at around 9.2 cal ka BP, when the chemical weathering strength decreased and the tree-pollen declined. This suggests that a strong drier regional climatic event occurred at around 9.2 cal ka BP in central China, which was, in turn, probably connected to the rapid 9.2 ka climate event co-developing worldwide. In addition, based on the synthesis of our peat records and the other Holocene hydrological records from Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, we further found that the 9.2 ka event probably constituted the strongest abrupt collapse of the Asian monsoon system during the full Holocene interval. The correlations between ASM and the atmospheric 14C production rate, the North Atlantic drift ice records and Greenland temperature indicated that the weakened ASM event at around 9.2 cal ka BP could be interpreted by the co-influence of external and internal factors, related to the changes of the solar activity and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

  5. Recent Reversal of the Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Trend and its Role in Intensifying the East Asian Summer Monsoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Siyao; Li, Jian; Yu, Rucong; Chen, Haoming

    2015-07-02

    At the beginning of the 21st century, the July and August (JA) mean upper-tropospheric temperature over East Asia shows a significant increasing trend, contrary to the decreasing trend in the late 1970 s. The largest warming center is over northern China (between 30°N-45°N and 85°E-120°E) around 300 hPa. Together with the temperature rising, the geo-potential height rises above the warming center and drops below, which connects closely to a correspondingly significant decadal shift of the general circulation over East Asia. In the upper-level of the troposphere, an anomalous anti-cyclone dominates, and the 200-hPa westerly jet strengthens due to the increasing pole-ward geo-potential height gradient. In the lower-troposphere, the anomalous southerly wind increases around Yangtze River Valley and the East Asian summer monsoon intensifies. The integrated circulation changes seriously impact summer precipitation over East Asia. The so-called "southern flood and northern drought" (SFND) pattern since the 1970 s over eastern China has changed. As the cooling center in the 1970 s moves southward, the dry belt moves southward as well. A wet belt dominates the Huaihe River Valley after the temperature trend reversal at 2005 while southern China experiences a dry condition.

  6. Interdecadal variations of the South Asian summer monsoon circulation variability and the associated sea surface temperatures on interannual scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Ya; Wang, Huijun; Chen, Dong

    2017-07-01

    We investigate the interannual variability of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) circulation, which has experienced a significant interdecadal change since 2000. This change is primarily influenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. During the pre-2000 period examined in this study (1979-99), the SASM is negatively correlated with eastern Pacific SSTs (the canonical ENSO mode) and positively correlated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic SST tripole (NAT). During the post-2000 period (2000-14), the SASM is negatively correlated with central Pacific SSTs and positively correlated with the positive phase of the NAT pattern. The associated Pacific SSTs change from the eastern to central region, leading to the rising (subsiding) branch of the Walker circulation moving westwards to the Maritime Continent in the latter period, which can impact the interannual variability of the SASM through modulating the wind field in the troposphere. In addition to Pacific SSTs, the NAT SSTs can propagate energy from the North Atlantic to the South Asian High (SAH) region through the wave activity flux, and then further impact the SASM via the SAH. Because the SASM is intimately related with precipitation over the Asian region, we briefly discuss the features of the precipitation patterns associated with the SASM during the two periods. The westward shifting Walker circulation leads to the shrinking and weakened anomalous westerlies of the SASM in the lower level, inducing the Maritime Continent rainfall location to move westwards and more moisture to arrive in southern China from the Pacific Ocean in the latter period.

  7. Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Renping; Zhu, Jiang; Zheng, Fei

    2016-12-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experienced decadal transitions over the past few decades, and the associated "wetter-South-drier-North" shifts in rainfall patterns in China significantly affected the social and economic development in China. Two viewpoints stand out to explain these decadal shifts, regarding the shifts either a result of internal variability of climate system or that of external forcings (e.g. greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols). However, most climate models, for example, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-type simulations, fail to simulate the variation patterns, leaving the mechanisms responsible for these shifts still open to dispute. In this study, we conducted a successful simulation of these decadal transitions in a coupled model where we applied ocean data assimilation in the model free of explicit aerosols and GHGs forcing. The associated decadal shifts of the three-dimensional spatial structure in the 1990s, including the eastward retreat, the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the south-cool-north-warm pattern of the upper-level tropospheric temperature, were all well captured. Our simulation supports the argument that the variations of the oceanic fields are the dominant factor responsible for the EASM decadal transitions.

  8. Disentangling fast and slow responses of the East Asian summer monsoon to reflecting and absorbing aerosol forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Wang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We examine the roles of fast and slow responses in shaping the total equilibrium response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM to reflecting (sulfate, SO4 and absorbing (black carbon, BC aerosol forcings over the industrial era using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1. Our results show that there is a clear distinction between fast and slow responses of the EASM to aerosol forcings and the slow climate response due to aerosol-induced change in sea surface temperature (SST plays an important role in the impacts of aerosols on the EASM. The EASM is weakened by a decrease in land–sea surface thermal contrast in the fast response (FR component to SO4 forcing, whereas the weakening is more intensive due to the changes in tropospheric thermodynamic and dynamic structures in the slow response (SR component to SO4. The total climate adjustment caused by SO4 is a significant weakening of the EASM and a decrease in precipitation. The BC-induced fast adjustment strengthens the EASM both by increasing the local land–sea surface thermal contrast and shifting the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ northwards. The BC-induced slow climate adjustment, however, weakens the EASM through altering the atmospheric temperature and circulation. Consequently, the EASM is slightly enhanced, especially north of 30° N, in the total response (TR to BC. The spatial patterns of precipitation change over East Asia due to BC are similar in the total response and slow response. This study highlights the importance of ocean response to aerosol forcings in driving the changes of the EASM.

  9. The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.

    2013-01-01

    Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with

  10. Diagnosing potential changes in Asian summer monsoon onset and duration in IPCC AR4 model simulations using moisture and wind indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Huqiang; Moise, A.; Hanson, L. [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, A Partnership between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, GPO Box 1289k, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Liang, Ping [China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai Regional Climate Center, Shanghai (China)

    2012-11-15

    Using daily precipitable water (PW) and 850 hPa monsoon wind, which represent large-scale moisture and dynamic conditions for monsoon development, we analyze potential changes in Asian monsoon onset, retreat and duration simulated by 13 IPCC AR4 models. Most models are able to reproduce the observed temporal and spatial evolution patterns of the Asian monsoon system. Nevertheless, there are significant model biases and some models fail in reproducing the broad structure. Under a warmed climate, changes in onset and duration days are only moderate (about 3-10 days), with significant discrepancies among the models, particularly over the East Asia land area where the models are almost equally divided. In the tropical Indian Ocean, maritime continent and Indochina Peninsula, the majority of the models tend to simulate delayed onset and shortened duration while in the western North Pacific most models exhibit an early onset and longer duration. There are two reasons leading to such uncertainties: (1) the key processes determining the Asian monsoon onset/retreat are different among the models. Some are more influenced by ENSO-like processes. But in some models, monsoon onset/retreat is more significantly correlated to circulations in the tropics. (2) The model-simulated changes in these dominant processes are different. In some models, surface warming is more intense in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with El Nino-like patterns, while others do not show such features. If the model-simulated monsoon onset/retreat is correlated to the central and eastern Pacific warming and at the same time the model simulates much larger warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, then it is very likely that these models will show significant delay of south Asian monsoon onset and shortened duration. In some models, the delayed onsets are more related to the reduction of westerlies in the west of the warm pool region. The patterns of anomalous SST and wind conditions

  11. Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakumar, A.; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S. J.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mohandas, Saji; Mitra, A. K.

    2017-09-01

    Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability in the Asian monsoon, otherwise known as the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (MISO), is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, with large impacts on total monsoon rainfall and India's agricultural production. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in MISO is incomplete and its simulation in various numerical models is often flawed. In this study, we focus on the objective evaluation of the fidelity of MISO simulation in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), an initialized coupled model. We analyze a series of nine-member hindcasts from GloSea5 over 1996-2009 during the peak monsoon period (July-August) over the South-Asian monsoon domain focusing on aspects of the time-mean background state and air-sea interaction processes pertinent to MISO. Dominant modes during this period are evident in power spectrum analysis, but propagation and evolution characteristics of the MISO are not realistic. We find that simulated air-sea interactions in the central Indian Ocean are not supportive of MISO initiation in that region, likely a result of the low surface wind variance there. As a consequence, the expected near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and convection is not represented properly over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, and northward propagation from the equator is poorly simulated. This may reinforce the equatorial rainfall mean state bias in GloSea5.

  12. Asian monsoon variability, cyclicities, and forcing mechanisms

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    is the dominant climatic feature of the Indian Ocean tropics and the adjacent continent. Boreal summer is characterized by high solar radiation that causes intense sensible and latent heating over northern India and Tibet Plateau. This pattern of heating... monsoon rains (Figure 2). By contrast, the winter season of the Asian sector is characterized by low solar radiation, cold temperature, and northeasterly winds, which flow from the cold Asian continent towards the Arabian Sea. These continental winter...

  13. Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) was conducted during the First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment (FGGE). An international...

  14. Probabilistic versus deterministic skill in predicting the western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon variability with multimodel ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiu-Qun; Yang, Dejian; Xie, Qian; Zhang, Yaocun; Ren, Xuejuan; Tang, Youmin

    2017-04-01

    Based on historical forecasts of three quasi-operational multi-model ensemble (MME) systems, this study assesses the superiority of coupled MME over contributing single-model ensembles (SMEs) and over uncoupled atmospheric MME in predicting the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon variability. The probabilistic and deterministic forecast skills are measured by Brier skill score (BSS) and anomaly correlation (AC), respectively. A forecast-format dependent MME superiority over SMEs is found. The probabilistic forecast skill of the MME is always significantly better than that of each SME, while the deterministic forecast skill of the MME can be lower than that of some SMEs. The MME superiority arises from both the model diversity and the ensemble size increase in the tropics, and primarily from the ensemble size increase in the subtropics. The BSS is composed of reliability and resolution, two attributes characterizing probabilistic forecast skill. The probabilistic skill increase of the MME is dominated by the dramatic improvement in reliability, while resolution is not always improved, similar to AC. A monotonic resolution-AC relationship is further found and qualitatively explained, whereas little relationship can be identified between reliability and AC. It is argued that the MME's success in improving the reliability arises from an effective reduction of the overconfidence in forecast distributions. Moreover, it is examined that the seasonal predictions with coupled MME are more skillful than those with the uncoupled atmospheric MME forced by persisting sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, since the coupled MME has better predicted the SST anomaly evolution in three key regions.

  15. Evaluation of a multi-scale WRF-CAM5 simulation during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Leung, Ruby; Fan, Jiwen; Zheng, Bo; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

    2017-11-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) has been applied at multiple scales over Eastern China (EC) and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) to evaluate how increased horizontal resolution with physics designed for a coarser resolution climate model impacts aerosols and clouds, and the resulting precipitation characteristics and performance during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Despite large underpredictions in surface aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth, there is good spatial agreement with surface observations of chemical predictions, and increasing spatial resolution tends to improve performance. Model bias and normalized root mean square values for precipitation predictions are relatively small, but there are significant differences when comparing modeled and observed probability density functions for precipitation in EC and YRD. Increasing model horizontal resolution tends to reduce model bias and error for precipitation predictions. The surface and column aerosol loading is maximized between about 32N and 42N in early to mid-May during the 2010 EASM, and then shifts north while decreasing in magnitude during July and August. Changing model resolution moderately changes the spatiotemporal relationships between aerosols, cloud properties, and precipitation during the EASM, thus demonstrating the importance of model grid resolution in simulating EASM circulation and rainfall patterns over EC and the YRD. Results from this work demonstrate the capability and limitations in the aerosol, cloud, and precipitation representation of WRF-CAM5 for regional-scale applications down to relatively fine horizontal resolutions. Further WRF-CAM5 model development and application in this area is needed.

  16. Impact of air-sea interaction on simulation of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soheon; Cha, Dong-Hyun

    2017-04-01

    In the western North Pacific (WNP), it is well known that there is a negative correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation indicating that the atmosphere may force the ocean. If global climate models (GCMs) cannot capture the air-sea interaction over the WNP, it leads to the failure in simulating regional climate over East Asia. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an intrinsic atmospheric phenomenon in East Asia, which significantly affect the surrounding countries. In this study, therefore, we investigate the impact of the air-sea interaction on simulating the EASM in multi-GCMs. The GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) have large errors in cross correlation between SST and precipitation over the WNP, which means that the models could not capture the negative correlation realistically. On the contrary, the GCMs participating in CMIP5 improve the air-sea interaction compared to CMIP3 models. They have smaller errors in cross correlation between SST and precipitation. Among CMIP5 models, the models which have the smaller errors in cross correlation showed realistic simulation of the EASM in terms of its evolution and associated principal mode. However, GCMs with larger errors tend to simulate the EASM unreasonably. This indicates that the realistic air-sea interaction over the WNP is required to improve the EASM simulation. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development program under grant KMIPA 2015-2083 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

  17. Evaluation of a multi-scale WRF-CAM5 simulation during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Leung, Ruby; Fan, Jiwen; Zheng, Bo; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

    2017-11-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) has been applied at multiple scales over Eastern China (EC) and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) to evaluate how increased horizontal resolution with physics designed for a coarser resolution climate model impacts aerosols and clouds, and the resulting precipitation characteristics and performance during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Despite large underpredictions in surface aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth, there is good spatial agreement with surface observations of chemical predictions, and increasing spatial resolution tends to improve performance. Model bias and normalized root mean square values for precipitation predictions are relatively small, but there are significant differences when comparing modeled and observed probability density functions for precipitation in EC and YRD. Increasing model horizontal resolution tends to reduce model bias and error for precipitation predictions. The surface and column aerosol loading is maximized between about 32°N and 42°N in early to mid-May during the 2010 EASM, and then shifts north while decreasing in magnitude during July and August. Changing model resolution moderately changes the spatiotemporal relationships between aerosols, cloud properties, and precipitation during the EASM, thus demonstrating the importance of model grid resolution in simulating EASM circulation and rainfall patterns over EC and the YRD. Results from this work demonstrate the capability and limitations in the aerosol, cloud, and precipitation representation of WRF-CAM5 for regional-scale applications down to relatively fine horizontal resolutions. Further WRF-CAM5 model development and application in this area is needed.

  18. The Interdecadal Variability of Summer Precipitation over the South of China and its Response to Asian Monsoon at the Turning Points of Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huan; Li, Dongliang

    2017-04-01

    Under the background of global warming, decadal variability of the summer precipitation in the South of China and the Asian monsoon experienced mutations at around the end of 1970s, the beginning of 1990s and 21st century. We examined the external and internal forcings which may cause the mutations and diagnosed the mechanism. Human emission of CO2 has always been the fatal reason for global warming, and it is also the primary reason for the precipitation increasing over Yangtze-Huai river basin at the end of the 1970s. The Yangtze-Huai river basin and South China demonstrated more summer rainfall after 1993. This can be explained by the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon caused by the positive anomaly of summer SST over northwest Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. A significant trend in the enhancement of sensible heat over the TP has exerted some considerable influence on the reinforce of the EASM, accompanied by the northward migration of the summer precipitation belt shifting northward at the beginning of 21st century.

  19. Delivery of halogenated very short-lived substances from the west Indian Ocean to the stratosphere during the Asian summer monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fiehn

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLSs are naturally produced in the ocean and emitted to the atmosphere. When transported to the stratosphere, these compounds can have a significant influence on the ozone layer and climate. During a research cruise on RV Sonne in the subtropical and tropical west Indian Ocean in July and August 2014, we measured the VSLSs, methyl iodide (CH3I and for the first time bromoform (CHBr3 and dibromomethane (CH2Br2, in surface seawater and the marine atmosphere to derive their emission strengths. Using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART with ERA-Interim meteorological fields, we calculated the direct contribution of observed VSLS emissions to the stratospheric halogen burden during the Asian summer monsoon. Furthermore, we compare the in situ calculations with the interannual variability of transport from a larger area of the west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere for July 2000–2015. We found that the west Indian Ocean is a strong source for CHBr3 (910 pmol m−2 h−1, very strong source for CH2Br2 (930 pmol m−2 h−1, and an average source for CH3I (460 pmol m−2 h−1. The atmospheric transport from the tropical west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere experiences two main pathways. On very short timescales, especially relevant for the shortest-lived compound CH3I (3.5 days lifetime, convection above the Indian Ocean lifts oceanic air masses and VSLSs towards the tropopause. On a longer timescale, the Asian summer monsoon circulation transports oceanic VSLSs towards India and the Bay of Bengal, where they are lifted with the monsoon convection and reach stratospheric levels in the southeastern part of the Asian monsoon anticyclone. This transport pathway is more important for the longer-lived brominated compounds (17 and 150 days lifetime for CHBr3 and CH2Br2. The entrainment of CHBr3 and CH3I from the west Indian Ocean to the stratosphere during the

  20. Delivery of halogenated very short-lived substances from the west Indian Ocean to the stratosphere during the Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiehn, Alina; Quack, Birgit; Hepach, Helmke; Fuhlbrügge, Steffen; Tegtmeier, Susann; Toohey, Matthew; Atlas, Elliot; Krüger, Kirstin

    2017-06-01

    Halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLSs) are naturally produced in the ocean and emitted to the atmosphere. When transported to the stratosphere, these compounds can have a significant influence on the ozone layer and climate. During a research cruise on RV Sonne in the subtropical and tropical west Indian Ocean in July and August 2014, we measured the VSLSs, methyl iodide (CH3I) and for the first time bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), in surface seawater and the marine atmosphere to derive their emission strengths. Using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART with ERA-Interim meteorological fields, we calculated the direct contribution of observed VSLS emissions to the stratospheric halogen burden during the Asian summer monsoon. Furthermore, we compare the in situ calculations with the interannual variability of transport from a larger area of the west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere for July 2000-2015. We found that the west Indian Ocean is a strong source for CHBr3 (910 pmol m-2 h-1), very strong source for CH2Br2 (930 pmol m-2 h-1), and an average source for CH3I (460 pmol m-2 h-1). The atmospheric transport from the tropical west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere experiences two main pathways. On very short timescales, especially relevant for the shortest-lived compound CH3I (3.5 days lifetime), convection above the Indian Ocean lifts oceanic air masses and VSLSs towards the tropopause. On a longer timescale, the Asian summer monsoon circulation transports oceanic VSLSs towards India and the Bay of Bengal, where they are lifted with the monsoon convection and reach stratospheric levels in the southeastern part of the Asian monsoon anticyclone. This transport pathway is more important for the longer-lived brominated compounds (17 and 150 days lifetime for CHBr3 and CH2Br2). The entrainment of CHBr3 and CH3I from the west Indian Ocean to the stratosphere during the Asian summer monsoon is lower than from previous

  1. Direct radiative effects of dust aerosols emitted from the Tibetan Plateau on the East Asian summer monsoon – a regional climate model simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sun

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available While dust aerosols emitted from major Asian sources such as Taklimakan and Gobi deserts have been shown to have strong effect on Asian monsoon and climate, the role of dust emitted from Tibetan Plateau (TP itself, where aerosols can directly interact with the TP heat pump because of their physical proximity both in location and elevation, has not been examined. This study uses the dust-coupled RegCM4.1 regional climate model (RCM to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of dust aerosols originating within the TP and their radiative effects on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM during both heavy and light dust years. Two 20-year simulations with and without the dust emission from TP showed that direct radiative cooling in the mid-troposphere induced by the TP locally produced dust aerosols resulted in an overall anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the low troposphere centered over the TP region. The northeasterly anomaly in the EASM region reduces its strength considerably. The simulations found a significant negative correlation between the TP column dust load produced by local emissions and the corresponding anomaly in the EASM index (r = −0.46. The locally generated TP dust can cause surface cooling far downstream in Bohai Gulf and the China–North Korea border area through stationary Rossby wave propagation. Although dust from within TP (mainly Qaidam Basin is a relatively small portion of total Asian aerosols, its impacts on Asian monsoon and climate seems disproportionately large, likely owning to its higher elevation within TP itself.

  2. Trace gas composition in the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone: a case study based on aircraft observations and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottschaldt, Klaus-D.; Schlager, Hans; Baumann, Robert; Bozem, Heiko; Eyring, Veronika; Hoor, Peter; Jöckel, Patrick; Jurkat, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

    2017-05-01

    We present in situ measurements of the trace gas composition of the upper tropospheric (UT) Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) performed with the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) in the frame of the Earth System Model Validation (ESMVal) campaign. Air masses with enhanced O3 mixing ratios were encountered after entering the ASMA at its southern edge at about 150 hPa on 18 September 2012. This is in contrast to the presumption that the anticyclone's interior is dominated by recently uplifted air with low O3 in the monsoon season. We also observed enhanced CO and HCl in the ASMA, which are tracers for boundary layer pollution and tropopause layer (TL) air or stratospheric in-mixing respectively. In addition, reactive nitrogen was enhanced in the ASMA. Along the HALO flight track across the ASMA boundary, strong gradients of these tracers separate anticyclonic from outside air. Lagrangian trajectory calculations using HYSPLIT show that HALO sampled a filament of UT air three times, which included air masses uplifted from the lower or mid-troposphere north of the Bay of Bengal. The trace gas gradients between UT and uplifted air masses were preserved during transport within a belt of streamlines fringing the central part of the anticyclone (fringe), but are smaller than the gradients across the ASMA boundary. Our data represent the first in situ observations across the southern part and downstream of the eastern ASMA flank. Back-trajectories starting at the flight track furthermore indicate that HALO transected the ASMA where it was just splitting into a Tibetan and an Iranian part. The O3-rich filament is diverted from the fringe towards the interior of the original anticyclone, and is at least partially bound to become part of the new Iranian eddy. A simulation with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model is found to reproduce the observations reasonably well. It shows that O3-rich air is entrained by the outer streamlines of the

  3. Holocene moisture and East Asian summer monsoon evolution in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by Lake Qinghai and its environs: A review of conflicting proxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Fahu; Wu, Duo; Chen, Jianhui; Zhou, Aifeng; Yu, Junqing; Shen, Ji; Wang, Sumin; Huang, Xiaozhong

    2016-12-01

    Climatic and environmental changes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau are controlled by the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and the westerlies, two key circulation components of the global climate system which directly affect a large human population and associated ecosystems in eastern Asia. During the past few decades, a series of Holocene palaeoclimatic records have been obtained from sediment cores from Lake Qinghai and from various other geological archives in the surrounding area of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, because of uncertainties regarding the sediment chronologies and the climatic significance of the proxies used, the nature of Holocene climatic changes in the region remains unclear and even controversial. Here we review all major classes of the published data from drilled cores from Lake Qinghai, as well as other evidence from lakes and aeolian deposits from surrounding areas, in order to reconstruct changes in moisture patterns and possible summer monsoon evolution in the area during the Holocene. Combining the results of moisture and precipitation proxies such as vegetation history, pollen-based precipitation reconstruction, aeolian activity, lake water depth/lake level changes, salinity and sediment redness, we conclude that moisture and precipitation began to increase in the early Holocene, reached their maximum during the middle Holocene, and decreased during the late Holocene - similar to the pattern of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in northern China. It is clear that the region experienced a relatively dry climate and weak EASM during the early Holocene, as indicated by relatively low tree pollen percentages and fluctuating pollen concentrations; generally low lake levels of Lake Qinghai and the adjacent Lake Hurleg and Lake Toson in the Qaidam Basin; and widely distributed aeolian sand deposition in the Lake Qinghai Basin and the nearby Gonghe Basin to the south, and in the eastern Qaidam Basin to the west. We argue that the

  4. Late Quaternary evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon: Clay and magnetic mineralogical records retrieved from the northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Q.; Liu, Z.; Kissel, C.

    2016-12-01

    /(illite+chlorite) ratio and S-ratio, present strong precessional periodicity with high values correlating to maxima of the northern hemisphere summer insolation over the last 400 ka. Our results indicate that the solar insolation plays a dominant role in controlling chemical weathering on precessional band through fostering East Asian summer monsoon.

  5. Impact of ice sheet induced North Atlantic oscillation on East Asian summer monsoon during an interglacial 500,000 years ago

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundaram, S.; Yin, Q.Z.; Berger, A.; Muri, H. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Louvain la Neuve (Belgium)

    2012-09-15

    Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 13, an interglacial about 500,000 years ago, is unique due to an exceptionally strong East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) occurring in a relatively cool climate with low greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG). This paper attempts to find one of the possible mechanisms for this seeming paradox. Simulations with an Earth System model LOVECLIM show that the presence of ice sheets over North America and Eurasia during MIS-13 induces a positive phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) like feature. The ocean having a longer memory than the atmosphere, the oceanic anomalies associated with NAO persists until summer. The signals of summer NAO are transmitted to East Asia to reinforce the monsoon there through the stationary waves excited at the Asian Jet entrance. The geopotential height shows clearly a mid-latitude wave train with positive anomalies over the eastern Mediterranean/Caspian Sea and the Okhotsk Sea and a negative anomaly over Lake Baikal. This reinforces the effect of the high-latitude wave train induced independently by the Eurasian ice sheet topography as shown in previous study. These features reinforce the Meiyu front and enhance the precipitation over East Asia. The results obtained from LOVECLIM are further confirmed by an atmospheric general circulation model, ARPEGE. (orig.)

  6. Variability of the Asian summer monsoon during the penultimate glacial/interglacial period inferred from stalagmite oxygen isotope records from Yangkou cave, Chongqing, Southwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, T.-Y.; Shen, C.-C.; Huang, L.-J.; Jiang, X.-Y.; Yang, X.-L.; Mii, H.-S.; Lee, S.-Y.; Lo, L.

    2013-11-01

    The orbital-timescale dynamics of the Quaternary Asian summer monsoons (ASM) are frequently attributed to precession-dominated Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. However, this ASM variability is inferred primarily from oxygen isotope records of stalagmites, mainly from Sanbao cave in mainland China, and may not provide a comprehensive picture of ASM evolution. A new spliced stalagmite oxygen isotope record from Yangkou cave tracks summer monsoon precipitation variation from 124-206 thousand years ago in Chongqing, southwest China. When superimposed on the Sanbao record, the Yangkou-inferred precipitation time series is shown to support the strong ASM periods at marine isotope stages (MIS) 6.3, 6.5, and 7.1 and weak ASM intervals at MIS 6.2, 6.4, and 7.0. This consistency confirms that ASM events affected most of mainland China. We show that change in glacial/interglacial (G/IG) ASM intensity was also governed by the Walker Circulation by combining our results with published paleo-Pacific thermal and salinity records. One of the strongest ASM events over the past fiver G/IG cycles, at MIS 6.5, was enhanced by such zonal forcing associated with prevailing trade winds in the Pacific.

  7. Environmental status of the Jilantai Basin, North China, on the northwestern margin of the modern Asian summer monsoon domain during Marine Isotope Stage 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yuxin; Wang, Yongda; Mou, Xuesong; Zhao, Hui; Zhang, Fu; Zhang, Fan; Liu, Wenhao; Hui, Zhengchuang; Huang, Xiaozhong; Ma, Jun

    2017-10-01

    Two drill cores were obtained from the Jilantai sub-depression (JLT(d)) and the neighboring Dengkou sub-uplift (DK(u)), within a huge, former lake basin in northern China. From an analysis of the lithology and pollen assemblages, combined with radiocarbon dating of extracted pollen and OSL dating of extracted quartz, we concluded the following: JLT(d) was continuously occupied by lakes since 85 ka; however, DK(u), the neighboring sub-uplift, was covered by lakes during 80-74 ka, 50-44 ka, 32.5-27.5 ka and work is needed to understand the environmental significance of the co-existence of lakes and dunes during MIS 3, although a sub-humid climate background during MIS 3 is supported by well-dated geological archives along the western front of the present-day Asian Summer Monsoon domain and its eastern extensional area.

  8. Impacts of East Asian summer and winter monsoons on interannual variations of mass concentrations and direct radiative forcing of black carbon over eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Yu-Hao; Liao, Hong; Chen, Hai-Shan

    2017-04-01

    We applied a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to examine the impacts of the East Asian monsoon on the interannual variations of mass concentrations and direct radiative forcing (DRF) of black carbon (BC) over eastern China (110-125° E, 20-45° N). With emissions fixed at the year 2010 levels, model simulations were driven by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4) meteorological fields for 1986-2006 and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields for 1980-2010. During the period of 1986-2006, simulated June-July-August (JJA) and December-January-February (DJF) surface BC concentrations were higher in MERRA than in GEOS-4 by 0.30 µg m-3 (44 %) and 0.77 µg m-3 (54 %), respectively, because of the generally weaker precipitation in MERRA. We found that the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM; East Asian winter monsoon, EAWM) negatively correlated with simulated JJA (DJF) surface BC concentrations (r = -0. 7 (-0.7) in GEOS-4 and -0.4 (-0.7) in MERRA), mainly by the changes in atmospheric circulation. Relative to the 5 strongest EASM years, simulated JJA surface BC concentrations in the 5 weakest monsoon years were higher over northern China (110-125° E, 28-45° N) by 0.04-0.09 µg m-3 (3-11 %), but lower over southern China (110-125° E, 20-27° N) by 0.03-0.04 µg m-3 (10-11 %). Compared to the 5 strongest EAWM years, simulated DJF surface BC concentrations in the 5 weakest monsoon years were higher by 0.13-0.15 µg m-3 (5-8 %) in northern China and by 0.04-0.10 µg m-3 (3-12 %) in southern China. The resulting JJA (DJF) mean all-sky DRF of BC at the top of the atmosphere was 0.04 W m-2 (3 %; 0.03 W m-2, 2 %) higher in northern China but 0.06 W m-2 (14 %; 0.03 W m-2, 3 %) lower in southern China. In the weakest monsoon years, the weaker vertical convection at the elevated altitudes led to the lower BC concentrations above 1-2 km in southern China, and therefore the

  9. Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Lei [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhang, Yaocun [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Huang, Anning [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Xiao, Chuliang [Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI USA

    2015-11-09

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.

  10. Comparison of East Asian winter monsoon indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Hui

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Four East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM indices are compared in this paper. In the research periods, all the indices show similar interannual and decadal-interdecadal variations, with predominant periods centering in 3–4 years, 6.5 years and 9–15 years, respectively. Besides, all the indices show remarkable weakening trends since the 1980s. The correlation coefficient of each two indices is positive with a significance level of 99%. Both the correlation analyses and the composites indicate that in stronger EAWM years, the Siberian high and the higher-level subtropical westerly jet are stronger, and the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are deeper. This circulation pattern is favorable for much stronger northwesterly wind and lower air temperature in the subtropical regions of East Asia, while it is on the opposite in weaker EAWM years. Besides, EAWM can also exert a remarkable leading effect on the summer monsoon. After stronger (weaker EAWM, less (more summer precipitation is seen over the regions from the Yangtze River valley of China to southern Japan, while more (less from South China Sea to the tropical western Pacific.

  11. Impact of assimilation of INSAT-3D retrieved atmospheric motion vectors on short-range forecast of summer monsoon 2014 over the South Asian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Prashant; Deb, Sanjib K.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.

    2017-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system are used in this study to assimilate the INSAT-3D, a recently launched Indian geostationary meteorological satellite derived from atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) over the South Asian region during peak Indian summer monsoon month (i.e., July 2014). A total of four experiments were performed daily with and without assimilation of INSAT-3D-derived AMVs and the other AMVs available through Global Telecommunication System (GTS) for the entire month of July 2014. Before assimilating these newly derived INSAT-3D AMVs in the numerical model, a preliminary evaluation of these AMVs is performed with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) final model analyses. The preliminary validation results show that root-mean-square vector difference (RMSVD) for INSAT-3D AMVs is ˜3.95, 6.66, and 5.65 ms-1 at low, mid, and high levels, respectively, and slightly more RMSVDs are noticed in GTS AMVs (˜4.0, 8.01, and 6.43 ms-1 at low, mid, and high levels, respectively). The assimilation of AMVs has improved the WRF model of produced wind speed, temperature, and moisture analyses as well as subsequent model forecasts over the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, Australia, and South Africa. Slightly more improvements are noticed in the experiment where only the INSAT-3D AMVs are assimilated compared to the experiment where only GTS AMVs are assimilated. The results also show improvement in rainfall predictions over the Indian region after AMV assimilation. Overall, the assimilation of INSAT-3D AMVs improved the WRF model short-range predictions over the South Asian region as compared to control experiments.

  12. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Cyclones; Bay of Bengal; summer monsoon; rainfall; genesis potential parameter; post-monsoon. .... in 10. −5 S. −1, S = vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa (m s. −1); M = [RH−40]. 30. = middle tro- posphere relative humidity, where RH is the aver- ..... cyclone genesis parameter for the tropical Atlantic;.

  13. Climatological perspectives of air transport from atmospheric boundary layer to tropopause layer over Asian monsoon regions during boreal summer inferred from Lagrangian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, B.; Xu, X. D.; Yang, S.; Zhao, T. L.

    2012-07-01

    The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) region has been recognized as a key region that plays a vital role in troposphere-to-stratosphere transport (TST), which can significant impact the budget of global atmospheric constituents and climate change. However, the details of transport from the boundary layer (BL) to tropopause layer (TL) over these regions, particularly from a climatological perspective, remain an issue of uncertainty. In this study, we present the climatological properties of BL-to-TL transport over the ASM region during boreal summer season (June-July-August) from 2001 to 2009. A comprehensive tracking analysis is conducted based on a large ensemble of TST-trajectories departing from the atmospheric BL and arriving at TL. Driven by the winds fields from NCEP/NCAR Global Forecast System, all the TST-trajectories are selected from the high resolution datasets generated by the Lagrangian particle transport model FLEXPART using a domain-filling technique. Three key atmospheric boundary layer sources for BL-to-TL transport are identified with their contributions: (i) 38% from the region between tropical Western Pacific region and South China Seas (WP) (ii) 21% from Bay of Bengal and South Asian subcontinent (BOB), and (iii) 12% from the Tibetan Plateau, which includes the South Slope of the Himalayas (TIB). Controlled by the different patterns of atmospheric circulation, the air masses originated from these three source regions are transported along the different tracks into the TL. The spatial distributions of three source regions keep similarly from year to year. The timescales of transport from BL to TL by the large-scale ascents r-range from 1 to 7 weeks contributing up to 60-70% of the overall TST, whereas the transport governed by the deep convection overshooting become faster on a timescales of 1-2 days with the contributions of 20-30%. These results provide clear policy implications for the control of very short lived substances, especially for the

  14. Indian Summer Monsoon influence on the Arabian Peninsula Summer Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attada, Raju; Prasad Dasari, Hari; Omar, Knio; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is as an integral component of the atmospheric global circulation. During summer, the mid-latitude zone of baroclinic waves in the Middle East region are pushed northward under the influence of ISM. We investigate the impact of ISM on the atmospheric circulation over the Arabian Peninsula on interannual time scale. We analyze various atmospheric variables derived from ECMWF reanalysis. We apply a composite analysis to study the circulation variability over the Middle East during extreme monsoon years. The extreme (strong and weak) monsoon years are identified based on All India Precipitation Index during 1979-2015. Our analysis reveals that ISM is a fundamental driver of the summer circulation over the Middle East. More specifically, during extreme monsoons: (i) the lower tropospheric winds are enhanced and dominated by persistent northerlies along with intensified subsidence due to adiabatic warming, (ii) A prominent baroclinic structure in circulation anomalies are observed, (iii) a meridional shift of the upper tropospheric jet stream (subtropical jet) is noticeable during weak monsoon years; this shift favors a strong Rossby wave response and has a consequent impact on summer circulations over the Middle East, (iv) the upper tropospheric wind anomalies show a well organized train of Rossby waves during strong monsoon years, and (v) Intensification of thermal signal during strong monsoon over West Asia has been noticed. We will present these findings and further discuss the monsoon dynamics controlling the summer Arabian Peninsula circulation.

  15. Characteristics of a persistent "pool of inhibited cloudiness" and its genesis over the Bay of Bengal associated with the Asian summer monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. M. Nair

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Using spatial and vertical distributions of clouds derived from multi-year spaceborne observations, this paper presents the characteristics of a significant "pool of inhibited cloudiness" covering an area of >106 km2 between 3–13° N and 77–90° E over the Bay of Bengal (BoB, persisting throughout the Asian summer monsoon season (ASM. Seasonal mean precipitation rate over the "pool" is −1 while that over the surrounding regions is mostly in the range of 6–14 mm day−1. Frequency of occurrence of clouds in this "pool" is ~20–40 % less than that over the surrounding deep convective regions. Zonal and meridional cross sections of the altitude distribution of clouds derived from CloudSat data reveal a vault-like structure at the "pool" with little cloudiness below ~7 km, indicating that this "pool" is almost fully contributed by the substantially reduced or near-absence of low- and middle-level clouds. This suggest the absence of convection in the "pool" region. Spaceborne scatterometer observations show divergence of surface wind at the "pool" and convergence at its surroundings, suggesting the existence of a mini-circulation embedded in the large-scale monsoon circulation. Reanalysis data shows a mini-circulation extending between the surface and ~3 km altitude, but its spatial structure does not match well with that inferred from the above observations. Sea surface at the south BoB during ASM is sufficiently warm to trigger convection, but is inhibited by the subsidence associated with the mini-circulation, resulting in the "pool". This mini-circulation might be a dynamical response of the atmosphere to the substantial spatial gradient of latent heating by large-scale cloudiness and precipitation at the vast and geographically fixed convective zones surrounding the "pool". Subsidence at the "pool" might contribute to the maintenance of convection at the above zones and be an important component of ASM that is overlooked hitherto.

  16. Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

    2017-10-01

    Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

  17. Methyl chloride in the UT/LS observed by CARIBIC: global distribution, Asian summer monsoon outflow, and use as a tracer for tropical air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, A. K.; Umezawa, T.; Oram, D.; Sauvage, C.; Rauthe-Schoech, A.; Montzka, S. A.; Zahn, A.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M.

    2014-12-01

    We present spatiotemporal variations of methyl chloride (CH3Cl) in the UT/LS observed mainly by the CARIBIC passenger aircraft for the years 2005-2011. The CH3Cl mixing ratio in the UT over Europe was higher than that observed at a European surface baseline station year-round, indicative of a persistent positive vertical gradient at NH mid latitudes. A series of flights over Africa and South Asia show that CH3Cl mixing ratios increase toward tropical latitudes, and the observed UT CH3Cl level over these two regions and the Atlantic was higher than that measured at remote surface sites. Strong emissions of CH3Cl in the tropics combined with meridional transport through the UT may explain such vertical and latitudinal gradients. Comparisons with CO data indicate that non-combustion sources in the tropics dominantly contribute to forming the latitudinal gradient of CH3Cl in the UT. We also observed elevated CH3Cl and CO in air influenced by biomass burning in South America and Africa, and the enhancement ratios derived for CH3Cl to CO in those regions agree with previous observations. In contrast, correlations indicate a high CH3Cl to CO ratio of 2.9±0.5 ppt ppb-1 in the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone and domestic biofuel emissions in South Asia are inferred to be responsible. We estimated CH3Cl emissions from South Asia to be 134±23 Gg Cl yr-1, which is higher than a previous estimate due to the higher CH3Cl to CO ratio observed in this study. We also examine the use of CH3Cl as a tracer of tropical tropospheric air in the LMS, where we identified air masses with elevated CH3Cl that were however stratospheric in terms of N2O. Back trajectories suggest recent low-latitude origins of such air masses in early summer. In this season, high CH3Cl LMS air shows a clear branch connecting stratospheric and tropical tropospheric air on N2O-CH3Cl scatterplots. This distinct feature vanishes in late summer when the LMS is ventilated by tropospheric air.

  18. Relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Renguang

    2017-01-01

    The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons are two components of the whole Asian summer monsoon system. Previous studies have indicated in-phase and out-of-phase variations between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall. The present study reviews the current understanding of the connection between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall. The review covers the relationship of northern China, southern Japan, and South Korean summer rainfall with Indian summer rainfall; the atmospheric circulation anomalies connecting Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations; the long-term change in the connection between Indian and northern China rainfall and the plausible reasons for the change; and the influence of ENSO on the relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall and its change. While much progress has been made about the relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations, there are several remaining issues that need investigation. These include the processes involved in the connection between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall, the non-stationarity of the connection and the plausible reasons, the influences of ENSO on the relationship, the performance of climate models in simulating the relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall, and the relationship between Indian and East Asian rainfall intraseasonal fluctuations.

  19. The resolution sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon and its inter-model comparison between MRI-AGCM and MetUM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogata, Tomomichi; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Schiemann, Reinhard; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Mizuta, Ryo; Yoshida, Kohei; Osamu Arakawa

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we compare the resolution sensitivity of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) in two Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs): the MRI-AGCM and the MetUM. We analyze the MetUM at three different resolutions, N96 (approximately 200-km mesh on the equator), N216 (90-km mesh) and N512 (40-km mesh), and the MRI-AGCM at TL95 (approximately 180-km mesh on the equator), TL319 (60-km mesh), and TL959 (20-km mesh). The MRI-AGCM and the MetUM both show decreasing precipitation over the western Pacific with increasing resolution, but their precipitation responses differ over the Indian Ocean. In MRI-AGCM, a large precipitation increase appears off the equator (5-20°N). In MetUM, this off-equatorial precipitation increase is less significant and precipitation decreases over the equator. Moisture budget analysis demonstrates that a changing in moisture flux convergence at higher resolution is related to the precipitation response. Orographic effects, intra-seasonal variability and the representation of the meridional thermal gradient are explored as possible causes of the resolution sensitivity. Both high-resolution AGCMs (TL959 and N512) can represent steep topography, which anchors the rainfall pattern over south Asia and the Maritime Continent. In MRI-AGCM, representation of low pressure systems in TL959 also contributes to the rainfall pattern. Furthermore, the seasonal evolution of the meridional thermal gradient appears to be more accurate at higher resolution, particularly in the MRI-AGCM. These findings emphasize that the impact of resolution is only robust across the two AGCMs for some features of the ASM, and highlights the importance of multi-model studies of GCM resolution sensitivity.

  20. Potential impact of carbonaceous aerosol on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and precipitation during Asian summer monsoon in a global model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadnavis, Suvarna; Kalita, Gayatry; Kumar, K. Ravi; Gasparini, Blaž; Li, Jui-Lin Frank

    2017-09-01

    Recent satellite observations show efficient vertical transport of Asian pollutants from the surface to the upper-level anticyclone by deep monsoon convection. In this paper, we examine the transport of carbonaceous aerosols, including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), into the monsoon anticyclone using of ECHAM6-HAM, a global aerosol climate model. Further, we investigate impacts of enhanced (doubled) carbonaceous aerosol emissions on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), underneath monsoon circulation and precipitation from sensitivity simulations. The model simulation shows that boundary layer aerosols are transported into the monsoon anticyclone by the strong monsoon convection from the Bay of Bengal, southern slopes of the Himalayas and the South China Sea. Doubling of emissions of both BC and OC aerosols over Southeast Asia (10° S-50° N, 65-155° E) shows that lofted aerosols produce significant warming (0.6-1 K) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) near 400-200 hPa and instability in the middle/upper troposphere. These aerosols enhance radiative heating rates (0.02-0.03 K day-1) near the tropopause. The enhanced carbonaceous aerosols alter aerosol radiative forcing (RF) at the surface by -4.74 ± 1.42 W m-2, at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by +0.37 ± 0.26 W m-2 and in the atmosphere by +5.11 ± 0.83 W m-2 over the TP and Indo-Gangetic Plain region (15-35° N, 80-110° E). Atmospheric warming increases vertical velocities and thereby cloud ice in the upper troposphere. Aerosol induced anomalous warming over the TP facilitates the relative strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation and increases moisture inflow by strengthening the cross-equatorial monsoon jet. This increases precipitation amounts over India (1-4 mm day-1) and eastern China (0.2-2 mm day-1). These results are significant at the 99 % confidence level.

  1. Organic geochemical investigations of the Dali Lake sediments in northern China: Implications for environment and climate changes of the last deglaciation in the East Asian summer monsoon margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jiawei; Xiao, Jule; Wen, Ruilin; Zhang, Shengrui; Wang, Xu; Cui, Linlin; Yamagata, Hideki

    2017-06-01

    Millennial-scale environment and climate changes in the East Asian summer monsoon margin during the last deglaciation are reconstructed by systematic studies on the characteristic of sedimentary organic matter from Dali Lake in northern China. Concurrent increases in the TOC and TN concentrations indicate increases in terrestrial organic matter and nutrient inputs to the lake and a development of terrestrial vegetation and phytoplankton productivity related to increases in regional temperature and precipitation. C/N ratios reflect changes in the proportions of terrestrial and aquatic organic matter. Decreases in both δ13Corg and δ15N values indicate increases in the isotopically lighter, terrestrial carbon and nitrogen inputs to the lake, due to increases in surface runoffs; while a sharp decrease in the δ15N value implies a significant weakening in the biological activities of nitrifying and amonifying bacteria, due to abrupt decrease in the water temperature. The geochemical data indicate that regional temperature and precipitation exhibited increasing trends from 15,000 to 12,350 cal yr BP; temperature decreased abruptly at 12,350 cal yr BP and then maintained a low level from 12,350 to 11,400 cal yr BP, precipitation decreased to a relatively low level from 12,350 to 11,400 cal yr BP; and both temperature and precipitation returned to increase after 11,400 cal yr BP. The climate change in the Dali Lake region during the last deglaciation corresponds, within age uncertainties, to the Bølling-Allerød (BA) warm phase and Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal occurring over northern high latitudes. However, the gradual and mild increasing trends of regional temperature and precipitation during the BA warm period contrasts with the general cooling trend in northern high latitude temperature, implying a dominant influence from increases in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation; while the slight decreases in regional precipitation relative to the rapid and

  2. Equatorward dispersion of a high-latitude volcanic plume and its relation to the Asian summer monsoon: a case study of the Sarychev eruption in 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xue; Griessbach, Sabine; Hoffmann, Lars

    2017-11-01

    Tropical volcanic eruptions have been widely studied for their significant contribution to stratospheric aerosol loading and global climate impacts, but the impact of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer is not clear and the pathway of transporting aerosol from high latitudes to the tropical stratosphere is not well understood. In this work, we focus on the high-latitude volcano Sarychev (48.1° N, 153.2° E), which erupted in June 2009, and the influence of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) on the equatorward dispersion of the volcanic plume. First, the sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission time series and plume height of the Sarychev eruption are estimated with SO2 observations of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and a backward trajectory approach using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC). Then, the transport and dispersion of the plume are simulated using the derived SO2 emission time series. The transport simulations are compared with SO2 observations from AIRS and validated with aerosol observations from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). The MPTRAC simulations show that about 4 % of the sulfur emissions were transported to the tropical stratosphere within 50 days after the beginning of the eruption, and the plume dispersed towards the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) through isentropic transport above the subtropical jet. The MPTRAC simulations and MIPAS aerosol data both show that between the potential temperature levels of 360 and 400 K, the equatorward transport was primarily driven by anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking enhanced by the ASM in boreal summer. The volcanic plume was entrained along the anticyclone flows and reached the TTL as it was transported southwestwards into the deep tropics downstream of the anticyclone. Further, the ASM anticyclone influenced the pathway of aerosols by isolating an aerosol hole inside of the ASM, which

  3. Indian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics during contrasting monsoon years.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varikoden, H.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Babu, C.A.

    % in the central and western coastal regions. In a wet monsoon year, about 35–45 % of rainfall is contributed during June and July in most parts of India. During these years, the influence of features in the Pacific Ocean played vital role on the Indian summer...

  4. CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel Report to Scientific Steering Group-18

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, Ken R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hendon, Harry H. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC), Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2011-05-04

    These are a set of slides on CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel Report to Scientific Steering Group-18. These are the major topics covered within: major activities over the past year, AAMP Monsoon Diagnostics/Metrics Task Team, Boreal Summer Asian Monsoon, Workshop on Modelling Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability, Workshop on Interdecadal Variability and Predictability of the Asian-Australian Monsoon, Evidence of Interdecadal Variability of the Asian-Australian Monsoon, Development of MJO metrics/process-oriented diagnostics/model evaluation/prediction with MJOTF and GCSS, YOTC MJOTF, GEWEX GCSS, AAMP MJO Diabatic Heating Experiment, Hindcast Experiment for Intraseasonal Prediction, Support and Coordination for CINDY2011/DYNAMO, Outreach to CORDEX, Interaction with FOCRAII, WWRP/WCRP Multi-Week Prediction Project, Major Future Plans/Activities, Revised AAMP Terms of Reference, Issues and Challenges.

  5. Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: I. Formation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Guoxiong; Liu, Yimin; Duan, Anmin; Bao, Qing [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Dong, Buwen [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading (United Kingdom); Liang, Xiaoyun [China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Yu, Jingjing [China Meteorological Administration, National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing (China)

    2012-09-15

    Numerical experiments with different idealized land and mountain distributions are carried out to study the formation of the Asian monsoon and related coupling processes. Results demonstrate that when there is only extratropical continent located between 0 and 120 E and between 20/30 N and the North Pole, a rather weak monsoon rainband appears along the southern border of the continent, coexisting with an intense intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The continuous ITCZ surrounds the whole globe, prohibits the development of near-surface cross-equatorial flow, and collects water vapor from tropical oceans, resulting in very weak monsoon rainfall. When tropical lands are integrated, the ITCZ over the longitude domain where the extratropical continent exists disappears as a consequence of the development of a strong surface cross-equatorial flow from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. In addition, an intense interaction between the two hemispheres develops, tropical water vapor is transported to the subtropics by the enhanced poleward flow, and a prototype of the Asian monsoon appears. The Tibetan Plateau acts to enhance the coupling between the lower and upper tropospheric circulations and between the subtropical and tropical monsoon circulations, resulting in an intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon and a weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Linking the Iranian Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau substantially reduces the precipitation over Africa and increases the precipitation over the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian subcontinent, effectively contributing to the development of the South Asian summer monsoon. (orig.)

  6. Fluvial incision by the Qingyijiang River on the northern fringe of Mt. Huangshan, eastern China: Responses to weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chunsheng; Liu, Shaochen; Hu, Chenqi; Xu, Guanglai; Zhou, Yingqiu

    2017-12-01

    This paper focuses on climatic and tectonic controls to determine their relative importance to the Quaternary fluvial incision by the Qingyijiang River, eastern China. The Qingyijiang, which is one of longest tributaries of the lower Yangtze River, drains the northern piedmont of Mt. Huangshan. A field survey focused on three natural sections of the Qingyijiang in the Jingxian basin, where a well-preserved sequence of one alluvial platform (P) and three fluvial terraces (T3, T2, and T1) is presented. The heights of the platform and the terraces above river level are 65, 40, 20, and 7 m respectively. In this study, electron spin resonance (ESR), optical stimulated luminescence (OSL), and palaeomagnetic dating were applied to reconstruct the fluvial incision history of the Qingyijiang and evaluate the possible influence of tectonic uplift and/or climate change on the fluvial incision. The main results show that (1) the ages of P, T3, T2, and T1 were determined to be ∼ 1300, ∼ 900, ∼ 600, and ∼ 1.5 ka respectively, corresponding to four incision events in the Qingyijiang; (2) the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experienced four significant weakening events at 1300, 900, 600, and ∼ 1.5 ka, according to previous research. Correspondingly, we propose that four significant increased periods of regional precipitation occurred at 1300, 900, 600, and ∼ 1.5 ka in the study area because of the negative correlation between the intensity of the EASM and regional precipitation from 1960 to 2012; and (3) fluvial incision by the Qingyijiang arose as a result of the weakening of the EASM in combination with tectonic uplift, determined by matching fluvial incision history of the Qingyijiang with tectonic movement and EASM change. In addition, the weakening of the EASM climatically triggered fluvial incision by the Qingyijiang. This study supports the conclusion that major fluvial incision has been climatically triggered; however, it also suggests that the mechanism of

  7. Potential impact of carbonaceous aerosol on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and precipitation during Asian summer monsoon in a global model simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Fadnavis, Suvarna

    2017-09-28

    Recent satellite observations show efficient vertical transport of Asian pollutants from the surface to the upper-level anticyclone by deep monsoon convection. In this paper, we examine the transport of carbonaceous aerosols, including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), into the monsoon anticyclone using of ECHAM6-HAM, a global aerosol climate model. Further, we investigate impacts of enhanced (doubled) carbonaceous aerosol emissions on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), underneath monsoon circulation and precipitation from sensitivity simulations. The model simulation shows that boundary layer aerosols are transported into the monsoon anticyclone by the strong monsoon convection from the Bay of Bengal, southern slopes of the Himalayas and the South China Sea. Doubling of emissions of both BC and OC aerosols over Southeast Asia (10° S–50° N, 65–155° E) shows that lofted aerosols produce significant warming (0.6–1 K) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) near 400–200 hPa and instability in the middle/upper troposphere. These aerosols enhance radiative heating rates (0.02–0.03 K day−1) near the tropopause. The enhanced carbonaceous aerosols alter aerosol radiative forcing (RF) at the surface by −4.74 ± 1.42 W m−2, at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by +0.37 ± 0.26 W m−2 and in the atmosphere by +5.11 ± 0.83 W m−2 over the TP and Indo-Gangetic Plain region (15–35° N, 80–110° E). Atmospheric warming increases vertical velocities and thereby cloud ice in the upper troposphere. Aerosol induced anomalous warming over the TP facilitates the relative strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation and increases moisture inflow by strengthening the cross-equatorial monsoon jet. This increases precipitation amounts over India (1–4 mm day−1) and eastern China (0.2–2 mm day−1). These results are significant at the 99 % confidence level.

  8. Diagnosing Australia-Asian monsoon onset/retreat using large-scale wind and moisture indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Huqiang [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, A partnership between Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2010-09-15

    Using large-scale variables, in this study we have developed a method for defining monsoon onset/retreat in the Australia-Asian region and used this method to study monsoon activities simulated by global climate models. For this purpose, the method needs to capture fundamental characteristics of monsoon rainfall and circulation seasonal variations and at the same time it can be reasonably simulated by current climate models. We develop the method by using both atmospheric precipitable water and wind conditions in our definition and compared our results using 44-year ERA-40 reanalysis data with some published results in the region. Our results offer similar features to several observational studies, including features in Australia-Asian summer monsoon temporal and spatial evolutions and their interannual variations. Results further show that the observed significant increase in summer rainfall in northwest Australia corresponds to earlier onset and much longer duration of its summer monsoon, with its duration significantly increased. Prolonged summer monsoon duration is also seen in central-east China where upward rainfall trend is observed. Furthermore, the Australian summer monsoon appears to be more affected by ENSO than the Asian monsoon, with delayed onsets and shortened durations during El Nino years. Finally, by analyzing results from an IPCC AR4 model, we have shown that using the two large-scale variables simulated by climate models, it is possible to conduct some detailed studies on monsoon activities in current and future climate. Results from this particular model suggest that global warming could potentially modify some of the monsoon characteristics, including earlier onset in most of the region but different features for changes in duration. In the Australian region, it also displays further southward penetration of its summer monsoon. (orig.)

  9. Late Mio-Pliocene chemical weathering of the Yulong porphyry Cu deposit in the eastern Tibetan Plateau constrained by goethite (U-Th)/He dating: Implication for Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xiao-Dong; Li, Jian-Wei; Shuster, David L.

    2017-08-01

    Chemical weathering has provided a potentially important feedback between tectonic forcing and climate evolution of the Asian continent, although precise constraints on the timing and history of weathering are only variably documented. Here, we use goethite (U-Th)/He and 4He/3He geochronology to constrain the timing and rates of chemical weathering at the Yulong porphyry Cu deposit on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Goethite grains have (U-Th)/He ages ranging from 6.73 ± 0.51 to 0.53 ± 0.04 Ma that correlate with independent paleoclimatic proxies inferred from supergene Mn-oxides and loess deposits under variable tectonic regimes and vegetation zones over the southeastern Asia. This correlation indicates that regional climatic conditions, especially monsoonal precipitation, controlled chemical weathering and goethite precipitation in a vast area of southeastern Asia. The goethite ages suggest that the Asian summer monsoon was relatively strong from 7 to 4.6 Ma, but weakened between 4.6 and 4 Ma, and then significantly intensified from 4 to 2 Ma. The precipitation ages of goethites collected along a 100-m-thick weathering profile decrease with depth, and indicate a downward propagation of the weathering front at rates of table, which was possibly related to local surface uplift or reorganization of the river systems in southeastern Tibet during this period.

  10. Subseasonal Predictability of Boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall from Ensemble Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Vigaud

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Subseasonal forecast skill over the broadly defined North American (NAM, West African (WAM and Asian (AM summer monsoon regions is investigated using three Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS at sub-monthly lead times. Extended Logistic Regression (ELR is used to produce probabilistic forecasts of weekly and week 3–4 averages of precipitation with starts in May–Aug, over the 1999–2010 period. The ELR tercile category probabilities for each model gridpoint are then averaged together with equal weight. The resulting Multi-Model Ensemble (MME forecasts exhibit good reliability, but have generally low sharpness for forecasts beyond 1 week; Multi-model ensembling largely removes negative values of the Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS seen in individual forecasts, and broadly improves the skill obtained in any of the three individual models except for the AM. The MME week 3–4 forecasts have generally higher RPSS and comparable reliability over all monsoon regions, compared to week 3 or week 4 forecast separately. Skill is higher during La Niña compared to El Niño and ENSO-neutral conditions over the 1999–2010 period, especially for the NAM. Regionally averaged RPSS is significantly correlated with the Maden-Julian Oscillation (MJO for the AM and WAM. Our results indicate potential for skillful predictions at subseasonal time-scales over the three summer monsoon regions of the Northern Hemisphere.

  11. The vorticity and angular momentum budgets of Asian summer ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    1School of Geography and Geology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada L8S 4K1. 2Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology-Delhi Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110 016, India. The study delineates the vorticity and angular momentum balances of Asian summer monsoon dur- ing the evolution and ...

  12. The Indian summer monsoon and the waters around India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shetye, S.R.

    Ninth Kumari L. A. Meera Memorial Lecture The Indian Summer Monsoon and the Waters around India S. R. Shetye National Institute of Oceanography Dana Paula. Goa December 2, 2000 Kumari L. A. Meera Memorial Trust Palghat, Kerala KUMARI L. A. MEERA... Memorial Lecture The Indian Summer Monsoon and the Waters around India Satish R. Shetye The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) represents migration of the rain-bearing Equatorial Trough (ET) to the Indian subcontinent and the surrounding waters. Interaction...

  13. Asian monsoons in a late Eocene greenhouse world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Licht, A.; van Cappelle, M.; Abels, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304848018; Ladant, J.-B.; Trabucho-Alexandre, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/311482465; France-Lanord, C.; Donnadieu, Y.; Vandenberghe, J.; Rigaudier, T.; Lécuyer, C.; Terry, D.; Adriaens, R.; Boura, A.; Guo, Z.; Naing Soe, Aung; Quade, J.; Dupont-Nivet, G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/313092559; Jaeger, J.-J.

    2014-01-01

    The strong present-day Asian monsoons are thought to have originated between 25 and 22 million years (Myr) ago, driven by Tibetan–Himalayan uplift. However, the existence of older Asian monsoons and their response to enhanced greenhouse conditions such as those in the Eocene period (55–34 Myr ago)

  14. Anomalous behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon 2009

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in the year 2009. India as a whole received 77% of its long period average during summer monsoon season (1 June to 30 September) of 2009, which is the third highest deficient all India monsoon season rainfall year during the period 1901–2009. Therefore ...

  15. Holocene Greenhouse Gases And Asian Monsoon Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Wu, H.; Guo, Z.

    2008-12-01

    Atmospheric methane concentration gradually decreased during the first half of the Holocene and then reversed the trend since ~5,000 years ago. This has been variously attributed to natural or/and anthropogenic factors. The development of early rice farming in the world was roughly consistent in time with the methane reverse while the extent of irrigated lands and the amount of methane emission remain to be determined. It was also proposed that the late Holocene increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases would have offset part of the cooling trend due to decreased northern insolation and may have prevented the onset of the early stage of a new glaciation, as is supported by some climate model experiments. If this cooling occurred, it would have been equally catastrophic to the development of human civilization. As one of the tests to this hypothesis, we synthesized climate data from the Asian monsoon zone to examine the Holocene trends of monsoon precipitation and temperature changes: if the late Holocene changes of greenhouse gases had significant climate effects, we would expect a relatively stable temperature associated with a declined trend of monsoon rainfall in response to the insolation changes. The results effectively showed divergent trends of precipitation and temperature in the late Holocene for a number of the reconstructions, but regional complexity is also clear and the cause remains to be addressed. More accurate reconstructions of climate parameters are of particular importance.

  16. Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, the development of a statistical forecasting method for summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh is described. Predictors for Bangladesh summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall were identified from the large scale ocean–atmospheric circulation variables (i.e., sea-surface temperature, surface air ...

  17. Transport pathways from the Asian monsoon anticyclone to the stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garny, Hella; Randel, William J.

    2016-03-01

    Transport pathways of air originating in the upper-tropospheric Asian monsoon anticyclone are investigated based on three-dimensional trajectories. The Asian monsoon anticyclone emerges in response to persistent deep convection over India and southeast Asia in northern summer, and this convection is associated with rapid transport from the surface to the upper troposphere and possibly into the stratosphere. Here, we investigate the fate of air that originates within the upper-tropospheric anticyclone from the outflow of deep convection, using trajectories driven by ERA-interim reanalysis data. Calculations include isentropic estimates, plus fully three-dimensional results based on kinematic and diabatic transport calculations. Isentropic calculations show that air parcels are typically confined within the anticyclone for 10-20 days and spread over the tropical belt within a month of their initialization. However, only few parcels (3 % at 360 K, 8 % at 380 K) reach the extratropical stratosphere by isentropic transport. When considering vertical transport we find that 31 % or 48 % of the trajectories reach the stratosphere within 60 days when using vertical velocities or diabatic heating rates to calculate vertical transport, respectively. In both cases, most parcels that reach the stratosphere are transported upward within the anticyclone and enter the stratosphere in the tropics, typically 10-20 days after their initialization at 360 K. This suggests that trace gases, including pollutants, that are transported into the stratosphere via the Asian monsoon system are in a position to enter the tropical pipe and thus be transported into the deep stratosphere. Sensitivity calculations with respect to the initial altitude of the trajectories showed that air needs to be transported to levels of 360 K or above by deep convection to likely (≧ 50 %) reach the stratosphere through transport by the large-scale circulation.

  18. Multidecadal Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation Induces an Increasing Northern Indian Ocean Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swapna, P.; Jyoti, J.; Krishnan, R.; Sandeep, N.; Griffies, S. M.

    2017-10-01

    North Indian Ocean sea level has shown significant increase during last three to four decades. Analyses of long-term climate data sets and ocean model sensitivity experiments identify a mechanism for multidecadal sea level variability relative to global mean. Our results indicate that North Indian Ocean sea level rise is accompanied by a weakening summer monsoon circulation. Given that Indian Ocean meridional heat transport is primarily regulated by the annual cycle of monsoon winds, weakening of summer monsoon circulation has resulted in reduced upwelling off Arabia and Somalia and decreased southward heat transport, and corresponding increase of heat storage in the North Indian Ocean. These changes in turn lead to increased retention of heat and increased thermosteric sea level rise in the North Indian Ocean, especially in the Arabian Sea. These findings imply that rising North Indian Ocean sea level due to weakening of monsoon circulation demands adaptive strategies to enable a resilient South Asian population.

  19. Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951–2007). Active and break events are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which ...

  20. Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa occurs mostly due to low pressure systems (LPS)developing over the Bay of Bengal and moving along the monsoon trough.A study is hence undertaken to find out characteristic features of the relationship between LPS over different regions and rainfall over Orissa during the ...

  1. Summer monsoon onset over Kerala: New definition and prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Statistical prediction; Indian summer monsoon; monsoon onset over Kerala; principal component analysis; multiple linear regression. ... In this study,a new method for the objective identification of MOK,based on large scale circulation features and rainfall over Kerala,is discussed.Further,a set of empirical models ...

  2. The East Asian Atmospheric Water Cycle and Monsoon Circulation in the Met Office Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, José M.; Milton, Sean F.; Marzin, Charline

    2017-10-01

    In this study the low-level monsoon circulation and observed sources of moisture responsible for the maintenance and seasonal evolution of the East Asian monsoon are examined, studying the detailed water budget components. These observational estimates are contrasted with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) climate simulation performance in capturing the circulation and water cycle at a variety of model horizontal resolutions and in fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. We study the role of large-scale circulation in determining the hydrological cycle by analyzing key systematic errors in the model simulations. MetUM climate simulations exhibit robust circulation errors, including a weakening of the summer west Pacific Subtropical High, which leads to an underestimation of the southwesterly monsoon flow over the region. Precipitation and implied diabatic heating biases in the South Asian monsoon and Maritime Continent region are shown, via nudging sensitivity experiments, to have an impact on the East Asian monsoon circulation. By inference, the improvement of these tropical biases with increased model horizontal resolution is hypothesized to be a factor in improvements seen over East Asia with increased resolution. Results from the annual cycle of the hydrological budget components in five domains show a good agreement between MetUM simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis in northern and Tibetan domains. In simulations, the contribution from moisture convergence is larger than in reanalysis, and they display less precipitation recycling over land. The errors are closely linked to monsoon circulation biases.

  3. Aerosol-weakened summer monsoons decrease lake fertilization on the Chinese Loess Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianbao; Rühland, Kathleen M.; Chen, Jianhui; Xu, Yangyang; Chen, Shengqian; Chen, Qiaomei; Huang, Wei; Xu, Qinghai; Chen, Fahu; Smol, John P.

    2017-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosol increases over the past few decades have weakened the Asian summer monsoon with potentially far-reaching socio-economic and ecological repercussions. However, it is unknown how these changes will affect freshwater ecosystems that are important to densely populated regions of Asia. High-resolution diatom records and other proxy data archived in lake sediment cores from the Chinese Loess Plateau allow the comparison of summer monsoon intensity, lake trophic status and aquatic ecosystem responses during warming periods over the past two millennia. Here we show that an abrupt shift towards eutrophic limnological conditions coincided with historical warming episodes, marked by increased wind intensity and summer monsoon rainfall leading to phosphorus-laden soil erosion and natural lake fertilization. In contrast, aerosol-affected Anthropocene warming catalysed a marked weakening in summer monsoon intensity leading to decreases in soil erosion and lake mixing. The recent warm period triggered a strikingly different aquatic ecosystem response with a limnological regime shift marked by turnover in diatom species composition now dominated by oligotrophic taxa, consistent with reductions in nutrient fertilization, reduced ice cover and increased thermal stratification. Anthropogenic aerosols have altered climate-monsoon dynamics that are unparalleled in the past ~2,000 years, ushering in a new ecological state.

  4. Seasonally asymmetric transition of the Asian monsoon in response to ice age boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ueda, Hiroaki; Kuroki, Harumitsu; Kamae, Youichi [University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Ohba, Masamichi [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Environmental Science Research Laboratory, Abiko (Japan)

    2011-12-15

    Modulation of a monsoon under glacial forcing is examined using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM) following the specifications established by Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) to understand the air-sea-land interaction under different climate forcing. Several sensitivity experiments are performed in response to individual changes in the continental ice sheet, orbital parameters, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 ka) to evaluate the driving mechanisms for the anomalous seasonal evolution of the monsoon. Comparison of the model results in the LGM with the pre-industrial (PI) simulation shows that the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are characterized by enhancement of pre-monsoon convection despite a drop in the SST encompassing the globe, while the rainfall is considerably suppressed in the subsequent monsoon period. In the LGM winter relative to the PI, anomalies in the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) between the Asian continents minus the tropical oceans become positive and are consistent with the intensified pre-monsoon circulation. The enhanced MTG anomalies can be explained by a decrease in the condensation heating relevant to the suppressed tropical convection as well as positive insolation anomalies in the higher latitude, showing an opposing view to a warmer future climate. It is also evident that a latitudinal gradient in the SST across the equator plays an important role in the enhancement of pre-monsoon rainfall. As for the summer, the sensitivity experiments imply that two ice sheets over the northern hemisphere cools the air temperature over the Asian continent, which is consistent with the reduction of MTG involved in the attenuated monsoon. The surplus pre-monsoon convection causes a decrease in the SST through increased heat loss from the ocean surface; in other words, negative ocean feedback is also responsible for the subsequent weakening of summer

  5. A revival of Indian summer monsoon rainfall since 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Qinjian; Wang, Chien

    2017-08-01

    A significant reduction in summer monsoon rainfall has been observed in northern central India during the second half of the twentieth century, threatening water security and causing widespread socio-economic impacts. Here, using various observational data sets, we show that monsoon rainfall has increased in India at 1.34 mm d-1 decade-1 since 2002. This apparent revival of summer monsoon precipitation is closely associated with a favourable land-ocean temperature gradient, driven by a strong warming signature over the Indian subcontinent and slower rates of warming over the Indian Ocean. The continental Indian warming is attributed to a reduction of low cloud due to decreased ocean evaporation in the Arabian Sea, and thus decreased moisture transport to India. Global climate models fail to capture the observed rainfall revival and corresponding trends of the land-ocean temperature gradient, with implications for future projections of the Indian monsoon.

  6. Late Miocene-Pliocene Asian monsoon intensification linked to Antarctic ice-sheet growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ao, H.; Roberts, A. P.; Dekkers, M. J.; Liu, X.; Rohling, E. J.; Shi, Z.; An, Z.; Zhao, X.

    2016-12-01

    Environmental conditions in one of Earth's most densely populated regions, East Asia, are dominated by the monsoon. While Quaternary monsoon variability is reasonably well understood, pre-Quaternary monsoon variability and dynamics remain enigmatic. In particular, little is known about potential relationships between northern hemispheric monsoon response and major Cenozoic changes in Antarctic ice cover. Here we document long-term East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensification through the Late Miocene-Pliocene (˜8.2 to 2.6 Ma), and attribute this to progressive Antarctic glaciation. Our new high-resolution magnetic records of long-term EASM intensification come from the Late Miocene-Pliocene Red Clay sequence on the Chinese Loess Plateau; we identify underlying mechanisms using a numerical climate-model simulation of EASM response to an idealized stepwise increase in Antarctic ice volume. We infer that progressive Antarctic glaciation caused intensification of the cross-equatorial pressure gradient between an atmospheric high-pressure cell over Australia and a low-pressure cell over mid-latitude East Asia, as well as intensification of the cross-equatorial sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient. These combined atmospheric and oceanic adjustments led to EASM intensification. Our findings offer a new and more global perspective on the controls behind long-term Asian monsoon evolution.

  7. Perceptible changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in relation to Indian Monsoon Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidu, C. V.; Dharma Raju, A.; Vinay Kumar, P.; Satyanarayana, G. Ch.

    2017-10-01

    The changes in the summer monsoon rainfall over 30 meteorological subdivisions of India with respect to changes in circulation and the Indian Monsoon Index (IMI) have been studied for the period 1953-2012. The relationship between the IMIs in different months and whole season and the corresponding summer monsoon rainfall is studied and tested. The positive and negative extremes are evaluated basing on the normalized values of the deviations from the mean of the IMI. Composite rainfall distributions over India and the zonal wind distributions in the lower and upper troposphere of IMI's both positive and negative extremes are evaluated separately and discussed. In the recent three decades of global warming, the negative values of IMI in July and August lead to weakening of the monsoon system over India. It is observed that the rainfall variations in the Northeast India are different from the rest of India except Tamil Nadu in general.

  8. On the atmospheric dynamical responses to land-use change in East Asian monsoon region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Huqiang [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); China Meteorological Administration, Institute of Arid Meteorology, Lanzhou (China); Gao, Xuejie [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing (China); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy)

    2009-08-15

    This study aims at (1) exploring dominant atmospheric dynamical processes which are responsible for climate model-simulated land-use impacts on Asian monsoon; and (2) assessing uncertainty in such model simulations due to their skills in simulating detailed monsoon circulations in the region. Firstly, results from a series of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) global model simulations of land-use vegetation changes (LUC) in China are analysed. The model showed consistent signals of changes in atmospheric low-level vertical profile and regional circulations responding to LUC. In northern winter, the model-simulated rainfall reduction and surface cooling are associated with an enhanced southward penetration of dry and cold air mass, which impedes warm and humid air reaching the region for generating cold-front rainfall. In its summer, an enhanced cyclonic circulation responding to LUC further blocks the northeast penetration of southwesterly summer monsoon flow into the region and results in rainfall decreases and a surface warming. Secondly, we have explored uncertainties in the proposed mechanism operating in the global model. By comparing its results with a set of high-resolution regional model simulations using the same vegetation datasets, it reveals similar changes in winter rainfall but opposite features in summer rainfall responses. In the global model, there is a cyclonic low-level circulation pattern over the South China Sea and adjacent region, an unsatisfactory feature commonly seen in other global climate models. With the reduction in surface roughness following LUC, such a deficiency becomes more prominent which further results in a weakened south/southwesterly summer monsoon flow and rainfall reduction. In contrast, in the regional model, its southwesterly summer monsoon flow is further enhanced due to the same process as reduced surface roughness. The enhanced monsoon flow further pushes the East Asian monsoon rainfall belt

  9. Summer monsoon moisture variability over China and Mongolia during the past four centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jinbao; Cook, Edward R.; Chen, Fahu; Davi, Nicole; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Gou, Xiaohua; Wright, Wiliam E.; Fang, Keyan; Jin, Liya; Shi, Jiangfeng; Yang, Tao

    2009-11-01

    A great impediment of Asian monsoon (AM) climate studies is the general lack of long-term observations of large-scale monsoon variability. Here we present a well-verified reconstruction of temporal changes in the dominant summer moisture pattern over China and Mongolia (CM), based on a network of tree-ring chronologies (1600-1991). The reconstruction reveals significant changes in the large-scale AM over the past four centuries, which coincide with dramatic episodes in Chinese history over the period of record. These episodes include the fall of the Ming Dynasty (AD 1644) and the catastrophic famine during China's Great Leap Forward (1958-1961). Overall, the reconstructed AM strength corresponds well with Northern Hemisphere temperature proxies over the past four centuries. Yet, this relationship has broken down in recent decades, raising the possibility that the major driving force of monsoon dynamics has shifted from natural to anthropogenic in nature.

  10. Development of summer monsoon and onset of continuous rains over central west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.

    A new interpretation of the start of summer monsoon along central west coast of India is presented in this paper. Many authors misinterpret onset of continuous rains as start of summer monsoon front, These two are different phenomena, continuous...

  11. Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    casts (ECMWF). Statistical techniques for long range forecasting make use of the past data espe- cially relationship between the rainfall and other weather/climate related parameters. SST is a key indication because of its relatively gradual rate of. Keywords. Summer monsoon rainfall; predictor; forecast; RMSE. J. Earth Syst.

  12. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 116; Issue 1. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon ... In recent years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has improved the geographical coverage and availability of the data and this can be easily updated. In this study using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on ...

  13. Page 1 Interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon 81 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Pacific (over a small area between Africa and Madagascar; south, eastern Indian. Ocean to the north west of Australia and south western Pacific Ocean). Thus, over the Indian seas, it can be said that SST variations do not exhibit significant differences between the extreme categories of the Indian summer monsoon.

  14. Subseasonal variability during the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Renguang [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, 4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2010-04-15

    Analysis of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) data for the period 1998-2007 reveals large subseasonal fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea during the summer monsoon onset. These subseasonal SST changes are closely related to surface heat flux anomalies induced by surface wind and cloud changes in association with the summer monsoon onset. The SST changes feed back on the atmosphere by modifying the atmospheric instability. The results suggest that the South China Sea summer monsoon onset involves ocean-atmosphere coupling on subseasonal timescales. While the SST response to surface heat flux changes is quick and dramatic, the time lag between the SST anomalies and the atmospheric convection response varies largely from year to year. The spatial-temporal evolution of subseasonal anomalies indicates that the subseasonal variability affecting the South China Sea summer monsoon onset starts over the equatorial western Pacific, propagates northward to the Philippine Sea, and then moves westward to the South China Sea. The propagation of these subseasonal anomalies is related to the ocean-atmosphere interaction, involving the wind-evaporation and cloud-radiation effects on SST as well as SST impacts on lower-level convergence over the equatorial western Pacific and atmospheric instability over the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea. (orig.)

  15. The Indian summer monsoon as revealed by the NCMRWF system

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Primarily, to comprehend the influence of the systematic errors over the Indian summer monsoon, secondarily, to analyze the performance of the model in capturing the interseasonal variability. The heat and moisture balances show reduction in the influx of heat and moisture in the model forecasts compared to the analyzed ...

  16. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The search for new parameters for predicting the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) has been an important aspect of long range prediction of AISMR. In recent years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has improved the geographical coverage and availability of the data and this can be easily updated. In this study using ...

  17. Simulation of Indian summer monsoon using the Japan ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The JMA hindcast climatology during JJAS simulates the rainfall maxima over the west-coast of India and the head Bay of Bengal reasonably well, although, the latter is slightly shifted southwestward. Associated with better forecast skills of El Nino in the JMA model, the interannual variability of All India Summer Monsoon ...

  18. Hydrography of the eastern Arabian Sea during summer monsoon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 114; Issue 5. Hydrography of the eastern Arabian Sea during summer monsoon 2002. D Shankar S S C Shenoi R K Nayak P N Vinayachandran G Nampoothiri A M Almeida G S Michael M R Ramesh Kumar D Sundar O P Sreejith. Volume 114 Issue 5 October 2005 ...

  19. The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dallmeyer

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region.

    Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease in evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season.

    When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

  20. Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ronghui; Chen, Jilong; Wang, Lin; Lin, Zhongda

    2012-09-01

    Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects: the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.

  1. Asian Monsoon Variations on Orbital-Millennial Scales and the `100 Thousand Year Problems'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Sinha, A.; Spoetl, C.; Yi, L.; Li, X.; Kathayat, G.

    2016-12-01

    Speleothem oxygen isotope records from China characterize changes in the Asian monsoon and global climate. We have now extended our Chinese record to cover the full uranium/thorium dating range: the last 640,000 years. The record's length, temporal precision, and correlations with both ice core and marine records allow us to further probe the enduring `100 ka problem'—i.e., why do large-amplitude ice age cycles and changes in eccentricity share common spectral power although the latter generates negligible change in insolation? Based on our record's timing, the ice age terminations are separated by 4 or 5 precession cycles, supporting the idea that the 100 ka ice age cycle is an average of discrete numbers of precession cycles. Furthermore, the suborbital component of monsoon rainfall variability exhibits power in precession and obliquity bands, and is nearly anti-phased with June 21 boreal insolation. These observations indicate that insolation, in part, paces the occurrence of millennial-scale events, including those associated with ice age terminations and `unfinished terminations'. In the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) domain, Loess magnetic susceptibility records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) show that the EASM is dominated by 100 ka cycles, which is in contrast to the conventional notion that insolation changes caused by the 20 ka precession cycle are the primary driver of summer monsoon. These observations present another paradox, which we dub here as the `Chinese 100 ka problem'. The existing and new speleothem records from both China and India reinforce the idea that precession, rather than glacial-interglacial, cycles, is the dominant driver of both EASM and Indian summer monsoon variations. The lack of precession signals in the loess records from the CLP might stem partially from its unique climatological settings and complex nature of loess magnetic susceptibility proxy.

  2. Local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Vasubandhu; Bhardwaj, Amit; Mishra, Akhilesh

    2017-10-01

    This paper introduces an objective definition of local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) at the native grid of the Indian Meteorological Department's rainfall analysis based on more than 100 years of rain gauge observations. The variability of the local onset/demise of the ISM is shown to be closely associated with the All India averaged rainfall onset/demise. This association is consistent with the corresponding evolution of the slow large-scale reversals of upper air and ocean variables that raise the hope of predictability of local onset and demise of the ISM. The local onset/demise of the ISM also show robust internannual variations associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole mode. It is also shown that the early monsoon rains over northeast India has a predictive potential for the following seasonal anomalies of rainfall and seasonal length of the monsoon over rest of India.

  3. The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

    2017-08-01

    The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

  4. What drives the global summer monsoon over the past millennium?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Jian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Jhun, Jong-Ghap [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences/Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ha, Kyung-Ja [Pusan National University, Division of Earth Environmental System, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-09-15

    The global summer monsoon precipitation (GSMP) provides a fundamental measure for changes in the annual cycle of the climate system and hydroclimate. We investigate mechanisms governing decadal-centennial variations of the GSMP over the past millennium with a coupled climate model's (ECHO-G) simulation forced by solar-volcanic (SV) radiative forcing and greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing. We show that the leading mode of GSMP is a forced response to external forcing on centennial time scale with a globally uniform change of precipitation across all monsoon regions, whereas the second mode represents internal variability on multi-decadal time scale with regional characteristics. The total amount of GSMP varies in phase with the global mean temperature, indicating that global warming is accompanied by amplification of the annual cycle of the climate system. The northern hemisphere summer monsoon precipitation (NHSMP) responds to GHG forcing more sensitively, while the southern hemisphere summer monsoon precipitation (SHSMP) responds to the SV radiative forcing more sensitively. The NHSMP is enhanced by increased NH land-ocean thermal contrast and NH-minus-SH thermal contrast. On the other hand, the SHSMP is strengthened by enhanced SH subtropical highs and the east-west mass contrast between Southeast Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. The strength of the GSMP is determined by the factors controlling both the NHSMP and SHSMP. Intensification of GSMP is associated with (a) increased global land-ocean thermal contrast, (b) reinforced east-west mass contrast between Southeast Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and (c) enhanced circumglobal SH subtropical highs. The physical mechanisms revealed here will add understanding of future change of the global monsoon. (orig.)

  5. Climate models produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    DelSole, Timothy; Shukla, Jagadish

    2012-05-01

    After more than one hundred years of statistical forecasting and fifty years of climate model development, this paper shows that the skill of predicting Indian monsoon rainfall with coupled atmosphere-ocean models initialized in May is statistically significant, and much higher than can be predicted empirically from May sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The superior skill of dynamical models is attributed to the fact that slowly evolving sea surface temperatures are the primary source of predictability, and to the fact that climate models produce more skillful predictions of June-September sea surface temperatures. The recent apparent breakdown in SST-monsoon relation can be simulated in coupled models, even though the relation is significant and relatively constant on an ensemble mean basis, suggesting that the observed breakdown could be due, in large part, to sampling variability. Despite the observed breakdown, skillful predictions of monsoon rainfall can be constructed using sea surface temperatures predicted by dynamical models. This fact opens the possibility of using readily available seasonal predictions of sea surface temperatures to make real-time skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In addition, predictors based on tendency of SST during spring information show skill during both the recent and historical periods and hence may provide more skillful predictions of monsoon rainfall than predictors based on a single month.

  6. Impact of geographic variations of the convective and dehydration center on stratospheric water vapor over the Asian monsoon region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Zhang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Asian monsoon region is the most prominent moisture center of water vapor in the lower stratosphere (LS during boreal summer. Previous studies have suggested that the transport of water vapor to the Asian monsoon LS is controlled by dehydration temperatures and convection mainly over the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia. However, there is a clear geographic variation of convection associated with the seasonal and intra-seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon circulation, and the relative influence of such a geographic variation of convection vs. the variation of local dehydration temperatures on water vapor transport is still not clear. Using satellite observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS and a domain-filling forward trajectory model, we show that almost half of the seasonal water vapor increase in the Asian monsoon LS are attributable to geographic variations of convection and resultant variations of the dehydration center, of which the influence is comparable to the influence of the local dehydration temperature increase. In particular, dehydration temperatures are coldest over the southeast and warmest over the northwest Asian monsoon region. Although the convective center is located over Southeast Asia, an anomalous increase of convection over the northwest Asia monsoon region increases local diabatic heating in the tropopause layer and air masses entering the LS are dehydrated at relatively warmer temperatures. Due to warmer dehydration temperatures, anomalously moist air enters the LS and moves eastward along the northern flank of the monsoon anticyclonic flow, leading to wet anomalies in the LS over the Asian monsoon region. Likewise, when convection increases over the Southeast Asia monsoon region, dry anomalies appear in the LS. On a seasonal scale, this feature is associated with the monsoon circulation, convection and diabatic heating marching towards the northwest Asia monsoon region from June to August. The

  7. Eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Susmitha; Sahai, A.K.; Goswami, B.N. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modeling Division, Pune (India)

    2009-06-15

    Improved understanding of underlying mechanism responsible for Indian summer monsoon (ISM) droughts is important due to their profound socio-economic impact over the region. While some droughts are associated with 'external forcing' such as the El-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), many ISM droughts are not related to any known 'external forcing'. Here, we unravel a fundamental dynamic process responsible for droughts arising not only from external forcing but also those associated with internal dynamics. We show that most ISM droughts are associated with at least one very long break (VLB; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) and that the processes responsible for VLBs may also be the mechanism responsible for ISM droughts. Our analysis also reveals that all extended monsoon breaks (whether co-occurred with El-Nino or not) are associated with an eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific extending to the dateline and westward propagating Rossby waves between 10 and 25 N. The divergent Rossby wave associated with the dry phase of equatorial convection propagates westward towards Indian land, couple with the northward propagating dry phase and leads to the sustenance of breaks. Thus, the propensity of eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer is largely the cause of monsoon droughts. While short breaks are not accompanied by westerly wind events (WWE) over equatorial western Pacific favorable for initiating air-sea interaction, all VLBs are accompanied by sustained WWE. The WWEs associated with all VLB during 1975-2005 initiate air-sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale, extend the warm pool eastward allowing the convectively coupled MJO to propagate further eastward and thereby sustaining the divergent circulation over India and the monsoon break. The ocean-atmosphere coupling on interannual time scale (such as El-Nino) can also produce VLB, but not necessary. (orig.)

  8. Future precipitation extremes during summer monsoon in southern Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahid, Maida; Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events are considered as a hydro-meteorological hazard resulting in colossal damage worldwide. In Pakistan, the extreme precipitation events have increased in the recent decades particularly in the southern part (Sindh province). This region did not receive substantial amount of precipitation earlier, but now experiencing urban flooding almost every year causing loss of life, property, crops and infrastructure. The region lacks the information regarding the recurrence of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, there is a strong need for a reliable information of extremes over the upcoming decades for better regional planning. Although statistical methods based on extreme value theory (EVT) are the most relevant ones to study the extremes, but they are never been applied in Pakistan. To address this shortcoming, we use the peak over threshold (POT) approach to compute the return levels (RLs) of precipitation extremes, and also identify the regions most prone to them. In this study, we analyzed the summer monsoon daily precipitation measured at nine weather stations of Pakistan Meteorological Department over the period 1980-2013. The summer monsoon (JJAS) is preferred for the analysis, because most of the extreme precipitation occurs during this period. We apply POT approach to model the daily precipitation above a selected threshold for each station. Then, we estimate return levels (RLs) of precipitation extremes during summer monsoon in southern Pakistan (Sindh) for the next 5, 25, 50 and 100-years. Lastly, we compare the 5-years with 100-years RLs to indicate the stations most vulnerable to precipitation extremes in future. This work is funded by the Climate KIC, European Institute of Innovation and Technology, Germany.

  9. Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, L.; Turner, A. G.; Highwood, E. J.

    2015-06-01

    Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also

  10. Summer climate of Madagascar and monsoon pulsing of its vortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2016-02-01

    This study analyzes the climate of Madagascar (12°-26°S, 43°-50°E) and its relation to the Indian Ocean during austral summer (Dec-Mar). Moisture converges onto a standing easterly wave and floods are prevalent in late summer. All-island daytime land temperatures exceed 38 °C in October and are ~4 °C above sea temperatures during summer. Analysis of thermally induced diurnal convection and circulation revealed inflow during the afternoon recirculated from the southeastern mountains and the warm Mozambique Channel. Summer rainfall follows latent and sensible heat flux during the first half of the day, and gains a surplus by evening via thunderstorms over the western plains. At the inter-annual time-scale, 2.3 years oscillations in all-island rainfall appear linked with the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation and corresponding 80 Dobson Unit ozone fluctuations during flood events. Wet spells at frequencies from 11-27 days derive from locally-formed tropical cyclones and NW-cloud bands. Flood case studies exhibit moisture recycling in the confluence zone between the sub-tropical anticyclone and the lee-side vortex. Hovmoller analysis of daily rainfall reinforces the concept of local generation and pulsing by cross-equatorial (Indian winter) monsoon flow rather than zonal atmospheric waves. Since the surface water budget is critical to agriculture in Madagascar, this study represents a further step to understand its meso-scale summer climate.

  11. Analysis of Vegetation Index Variations and the Asian Monsoon Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Sunhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Gerasimov, Irina

    2012-01-01

    Vegetation growth depends on local climate. Significant anthropogenic land cover and land use change activities over Asia have changed vegetation distribution as well. On the other hand, vegetation is one of the important land surface variables that influence the Asian Monsoon variability through controlling atmospheric energy and water vapor conditions. In this presentation, the mean and variations of vegetation index of last decade at regional scale resolution (5km and higher) from MODIS have been analyzed. Results indicate that the vegetation index has been reduced significantly during last decade over fast urbanization areas in east China, such as Yangtze River Delta, where local surface temperatures were increased significantly in term of urban heat Island. The relationship between vegetation Index and climate (surface temperature, precipitation) over a grassland in northern Asia and over a woody savannas in southeast Asia are studied. In supporting Monsoon Asian Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS) program, the data in this study have been integrated into Giovanni, the online visualization and analysis system at NASA GES DISC. Most images in this presentation are generated from Giovanni system.

  12. Asian monsoon extremes and humanity's response over the past millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, B. M.; Lieberman, V. B.; Zottoli, B.

    2012-12-01

    The first decade of the 21st century has seen significant development in the production of paleo proxies for the Asian monsoon, exemplified by the Monsoon Asian Drought Atlas that was comprised of more than 300 tree ring chronologies. Noteworthy among them is the Vietnamese cypress tree-ring record which reveals that the two worst droughts of the past 7 centuries, each more than a decade in length, coincided with the demise of the Khmer civilization at Angkor in the early 15th century CE. The 18th century was nearly as tumultuous a period across Southeast Asia, where several polities fell against a backdrop of epic decadal-scale droughts. At this time all of the region's charter states saw rapid realignment in the face of drought, famine, disease and a raft of related and unrelated social issues. Several other droughts, some more extreme but of lesser duration, punctuate the past millennium, but appear to have had little societal impact. Historical documentation is being used not only to provide corroborative evidence of tree-ring reconstructed climate extremes, but to attempt to understand the dynamics of the coupled human-natural systems involved, and to define what kinds of thresholds need to be reached before societies respond. This paleo perspective can assist our analyses of the role of climate extremes in the collapse or disruption of regional societies, a subject of increasing concern given the uncertainties surrounding projections for future climate across the highly populated areas of Asia.

  13. Indian summer monsoon forcing on the deglacial polar cold reversals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banakar, Virupaxa K.; Baidya, Sweta; Piotrowski, Alexander M.; Shankar, D.

    2017-08-01

    The deglacial transition from the last glacial maximum at ˜ 20 kiloyears before present (ka) to the Holocene (11.7 ka to Present) was interrupted by millennial-scale cold reversals, viz., Antarctic Cold Reversal (˜ 14.5-12.8 ka) and Greenland Younger Dryas (˜ 12.8-11.8 ka) which had different timings and extent of cooling in each hemisphere. The cause of this synchronously initiated, but different hemispheric cooling during these cold reversals (Antarctic Cold Reversal ˜ 3°C and Younger Dryas ˜ 10°C) is elusive because CO2, the fundamental forcing for deglaciation, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the driver of antiphased bipolar climate response, both fail to explain this asymmetry. We use centennial-resolution records of the local surface water δ ^{18}O of the Eastern Arabian Sea, which constitutes a proxy for the precipitation associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon, and other tropical precipitation records to deduce the role of tropical forcing in the polar cold reversals. We hypothesize a mechanism for tropical forcing, via the Indian Summer Monsoons, of the polar cold reversals by migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and the associated cross-equatorial heat transport.

  14. Continued obliquity pacing of East Asian summer precipitation after the mid-Pleistocene transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Liu, Fei; Abels, Hemmo A.; You, Chen-Feng; Zhang, Zeke; Chen, Jun; Ji, Junfeng; Li, Laifeng; Li, Le; Liu, Hou-Chun; Ren, Chao; Xia, Renyuan; Zhao, Liang; Zhang, Wenfang; Li, Gaojun

    2017-01-01

    Records from natural archives show that the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) strongly depends on the orbital configuration of the Earth. However, the dominant orbital cycles driving EASM have been found to be spatially different. Speleothem stable oxygen isotopic records from southern China, which are believed to reflect large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon system, are dominated by climatic precession cycles. Further north, on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), loess-and-paleosol sequences, which are argued to be controlled by monsoon intensity, are in pace with global ice volume changes dominated by obliquity, and after the mid-Pleistocene transition by 100-kyr cycles. To understand these critical discrepancies, here we apply a novel proxy based on the trace metal compositions of pedogenic carbonate in the eolian deposits on the CLP to reconstruct summer precipitation over the last 1.5 million years. Our reconstructions show that summer precipitation on the CLP is dominantly forced by obliquity not in pace with the ice-volume-imprinted loess-paleosol sequences before and after the mid-Pleistocene transition or with the precession-paced speleothem oxygen isotopic records. Coupled with climate model results, we suggest that the obliquity-driven variations of summer precipitation may originate from the gradient of boreal insolation that modulates the thermal contrast between the Asian continent and surrounding oceans.

  15. Twenty-first century projected summer mean climate in the Mediterranean interpreted through the monsoon-desert mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherchi, Annalisa; Annamalai, H.; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio; Alessandri, Andrea

    2016-10-01

    The term "monsoon-desert mechanism" indicates the relationship between the diabatic heating associated with the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall and the remote response in the western sub-tropics where long Rossby waves anchor strong descent with high subsidence. In CMIP5 twenty-first century climate scenarios, the precipitation over South Asia is projected to increase. This study investigates how this change could affect the summer climate projections in the Mediterranean region. In a linear framework the monsoon-desert mechanism in the context of climate change would imply that the change in subsidence over the Mediterranean should be strongly linked with the changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation. The steady-state solution from a linear model forced with CMIP5 model projected precipitation change over South Asia shows a broad region of descent in the Mediterranean, while the results from CMIP5 projections differ having increased descent mostly in the western sector but also decreased descent in parts of the eastern sector. Local changes in circulation, particularly the meridional wind, promote cold air advection that anchors the descent but the barotropic Rossby wave nature of the wind anomalies consisting of alternating northerlies/southerlies favors alternating descent/ascent locations. In fact, the local mid-tropospheric meridional wind changes have the strongest correlation with the regions where the difference in subsidence is largest. There decreased rainfall is mostly balanced by changes in moisture, omega and in the horizontal advection of moisture.

  16. Evolution and variability of the Asian monsoon and its potential linkage with uplift of the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tada, Ryuji; Zheng, Hongbo; Clift, Peter D.

    2016-12-01

    Uplift of the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau (HTP) and its linkage with the evolution of the Asian monsoon has been regarded as a typical example of a tectonic-climate linkage. Although this linkage remains unproven because of insufficient data, our understanding has greatly advanced in the past decade. It is thus timely to summarize our knowledge of the uplift history of the HTP, the results of relevant climate simulations, and spatiotemporal changes in the Indian and East Asian monsoons since the late Eocene. Three major pulses of the HTP uplift have become evident: (1) uplift of the southern and central Tibetan Plateau (TP) at ca. 40-35 Ma, (2) uplift of the northern TP at ca. 25-20 Ma, and (3) uplift of the northeastern to eastern TP at ca. 15-10 Ma. Modeling predictions suggest that (i) uplift of the southern and central TP should have intensified the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the Somali Jet at 40-35 Ma; (ii) uplift of the northern TP should have intensified the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), as well as the desertification of inland Asia at 25-20 Ma; and (iii) uplift of the northeastern and eastern TP should have further intensified the EASM and EAWM at 15-10 Ma. We tested these predictions by comparing them with paleoclimate data for the time intervals of interest. There are insufficient paleoclimate data to test whether the ISM and Somali Jet intensified with the uplift of the southern and central TP at 40-35 Ma, but it is possible that such uplift enhanced erosion and weathering that drew down atmospheric CO2 and resulted in global cooling. There is good evidence that the EASM and EAWM intensified, and desertification started in inland Asia at 25-20 Ma in association with the uplift of the northern TP. The impact of the uplift of the northeastern and eastern TP on the Asian monsoon at 15-10 Ma is difficult to evaluate because that interval was also a time of global cooling and Antarctic glaciation that might also

  17. An 8,600 year lacustrine record of summer monsoon variability from Yunnan, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillman, Aubrey L.; Abbott, Mark B.; Finkenbinder, Matthew S.; Yu, JunQing

    2017-10-01

    Interactions between the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) are complex, yet needed to provide a long-term perspective of precipitation patterns in southeast Asia. Here we present an 8600-year sediment record from Xingyun Lake in Yunnan, China, a transitional zone that receives inputs of precipitation from both the ISM and EASM. Analysis of stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) from authigenic calcite yields a semi-quantitative estimate of the timing and magnitude of lake level change that reflects changes in effective moisture from monsoon variability. Between 8600 and 6900 years BP, δ18O values are stable and low, indicating high lake levels and overflowing conditions resulting from a strong ISM. After 6900 years BP, δ18O values shift to higher values, which we suggest reflects a weakening of the ISM caused by declining summer insolation. The most substantial positive shift in isotopes occurs from 5000 to 4300 years BP and is coincident with aridity in India and the Tibetan Plateau. Other proxy records indicate increased ENSO variability and a southward shift in the ITCZ, which has an effect on the strength and onset of the ISM and may account for this change in hydrologic balance. After 4300 years BP, δ18O values continue to increase reflecting a gradual drying trend, but increases are smaller than prior periods, in part due to lake bathymetry that limits the potential for isotopic enrichment driven by evaporation. The relative influence of the ISM and EASM in the Yunnan Province of China during the Holocene remains a topic for future study, but our results suggest the predominance of the ISM and a possible connection to ENSO patterns on centennial to millennial timescales.

  18. Why is Bay of Bengal warmer than Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

    the summer monsoon. In the Arabian Sea, the winds associated with the summer monsoon are stronger and favour the transfer of heat to deeper layers owing to overturning and turbulent mixing. In contrast, the weaker winds over the bay force a relatively...

  19. The West African Monsoon Dynamics. Part II: The `Preonset' and `Onset' of the Summer Monsoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Benjamin; Janicot, Serge

    2003-11-01

    The arrival of the summer monsoon over West Africa has been documented by using daily gridded rainfall data and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses during the period 1968-90, and OLR data over the period 1979-90. Two steps have been characterized through a composite approach: the preonset and the onset of the summer monsoon.The preonset stage corresponds to the arrival in the intertropical front (ITF) at 15°N, that is, the confluence line between moist southwesterly monsoon winds and dry northeasterly Harmattan, bringing sufficient moisture for isolated convective systems to develop in the Sudano-Sahelian zone while the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is centered at 5°N. The mean date for the preonset occurrence is 14 May and its standard deviation is 9.5 days during the period 1968-90. This leads to a first clear increase of the positive rainfall slope corresponding to the beginning of the rainy season over this Sudano-Sahelian area.The onset stage of the summer monsoon over West Africa is linked to an abrupt latitudinal shift of the ITCZ from a quasi-stationary location at 5°N in May-June to another quasi-stationary location at 10°N in July-August. The mean date for the onset occurrence is 24 June and its standard deviation is 8 days during the period 1968-90. This leads to a second increase of the positive rainfall slope over the Sudano-Sahelian zone signing the northernmost location of the ITCZ and the beginning of the monsoon season. This abrupt shift occurs mostly between 10°W and 5°E, where a meridional land-sea contrast exists, and it is characterized by a temporary rainfall and convection decrease over West Africa. Preonset dates, onset dates, and summer rainfall amount over the Sahel are uncorrelated during the period 1968-90.The atmospheric dynamics associated with the abrupt ITCZ shift has been investigated. Between the preonset and the onset stages, the heat low dynamics associated with the ITF controls the circulation in the low and midlevels. Its

  20. Impact of Stratospheric Sudden Warming on East Asian Winter Monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Quanliang

    2017-04-01

    Quanliang Chen, Luyang Xu, and Hongke Cai College of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology and Plateau Atmospheric and Environment Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610225, China Fifty-two stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events that occurred from 1957 to 2002 were analysed based on the 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis dataset. Those that could descent to the troposphere were composited to investigate their impacts on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It reveals that when the SSW occurs, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) are both in the negative phase and that the tropospheric circulations quite wave-like. The Siberian high and the Aleutian low are both strengthened, leading to an increased gradient between the Asian continent and the North Pacific. Hence, strong EAWM is observed with widespread cooling over in land and coastal East Asia. After the peak of the SSW, in contrast, the tropospheric circulation is quite zonally symmetric with negative phases of AO and NPO. The mid-tropospheric East Asian trough deepens and shifts eastward. This configuration facilitates warming over the East AsianinlandandcoolingoverthecoastalEastAsiacenteredoverJapan.Theactivitiesofplanetarywavesduringthelifecycleofthe SSW were analysed. The anomalous propagation and the attendant altered amplitude of the planetary waves can well explain the observed circulation and the EAWM.

  1. Contrasting effects of winter and summer climate on alpine timberline evolution in monsoon-dominated East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Ying; Liu, Hongyan; Wang, Hongya; Piao, Shilong; Yin, Yi; Ciais, Philippe; Wu, Xiuchen; Luo, Yao; Zhang, Caina; Song, Yaqiong; Gao, Yishen; Qiu, Anan

    2017-08-01

    Alpine timberline is particularly sensitive to global climate change, with the danger of losing essential ecosystem services in high elevational regions. Its evolution is generally linked to annual average thermal regimes, and is regarded as an indicator of climate warming. However, the effect of uneven seasonal climate change stressed by the Hijioka et al. (2014) on alpine timberline dynamics in terms of both position migration and species composition remains unclear. Here, we documented approximately 6000 years of postglacial alpine timberline evolution on Mt. Tabai in the monsoon-dominated East Asian subtropical-temperate transition. We analyzed three high-resolution lacustrine sediment sequences located below, within, and above the current alpine timberline, an ecotone between the forest line and treeline, respectively. The timberline position appears to have varied coincidently with the temperature effect of cold East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), implying that enhanced EAWM shortened the duration of the growing season and reduced forest survival at the alpine timberline. Unlike position migration, however, timberline species composition depends on summer precipitation. We found that drought-tolerant herb and shrub species were much more sensitive to variations in the water-bearing East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) than mesophytic trees at the alpine timberline. Our results suggest that prediction of future timberline dynamics should consider uneven seasonal climate changes.

  2. Interannual variation of East Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yi; Sperber, Kenneth R.; Boyle, James S.

    1996-12-01

    This paper examines the interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon and its relationship with EJSO based on the 1979-1995 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Two stratifications of cold surges are used. The first one, described as the conventional cold surges, indicates that the surge frequency reaches a urn one year after El Nino events. The second one, originated from the same region as the first, is defined as the maximum wind events near the South China Sea. The variation of this stratification of surges is found to be in good agreement with the South Oscillation Index (SOI). Low SOI (high SOI) events coincide with years of low (high) surge frequency. The interannual variation of averaged meridional wind near the South China Sea and western Pacific is dominated by the South China Sea cold surges, and is also well correlated (R--O.82) with the SOI. Strong wind seasons are associated with La Nina and high SOI events; likewise, weak wind years are linked with El Nino and low SOI cases. This pattern is restricted north of the equator within the region of (OON-20 N, 11OOE-1300E), and is confined to the near surface layer. The surface Siberian high, 500 hPa trough and 200 hPa jetstream, all representing the large-scale monsoon flow, are found to be weaker than normal during El Nino years. In particular, the interannual variation of the Siberian high is in general agreement with the SOL.

  3. Characteristics of Arabian Sea mini warm pool and Indian summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neema, C.P. [Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore (India); Hareeshkumar, P.V. [Naval Physical and Oceanographic Laboratory, Kochi, Kerala (India); Babu, C.A. [School of Marine Science, CUSAT, Kochi (India)

    2012-05-15

    Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP) is a part of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool and formed in the eastern Arabian Sea prior to the onset of the summer monsoon season. This warm pool attained its maximum intensity during the pre-monsoon season and dissipated with the commencement of summer monsoon. The main focus of the present work was on the triggering of the dissipation of this warm pool and its relation to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. This phenomenon was studied utilizing NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric and Research) re-analysis data, TRMM Micro wave Imager (TMI) and observational data. To define the ASMWP, sea surface temperature exceeding 30.25 C was taken as the criteria. The warm pool attained its maximum dimension and intensity nearly 2 weeks prior to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. Interestingly, the warm pool started its dissipation immediately after attaining its maximum core temperature. This information can be included in the present numerical models to enhance the prediction capability. It was also found that the extent and intensity of the ASMWP varied depending on the type of monsoon i.e., excess, normal, and deficient monsoon. Maximum core temperature and wide coverage of the warm pool observed during the excess monsoon years compared to normal and deficient monsoon years. The study also revealed a strong relationship between the salinity in the eastern Arabian Sea and the nature of the monsoon. (orig.)

  4. An updated astronomical time scale for the Plio-Pleistocene deposits from South China Sea and new insights into Asian monsoon evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ao, H.; Dekkers, M.J.; Qin, L.; Xiao, G.

    2011-01-01

    Here we present an improved astronomical timescale since 5 Ma as recorded in the ODP Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea, using a recently published Asian summer monsoon record (hematite to goethite content ratio, Hm/Gt) and a parallel benthic δ18O record. Correlation of the benthic δ18O

  5. Tropical cyclone influence on the long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubota, Hisayuki; Shirooka, Ryuichi; Matsumoto, Jun; Cayanan, Esperanza O.; Hilario, Flaviana D.

    2017-12-01

    The long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset from 1903 to 2013 was investigated. The onset date is defined by daily rainfall data at eight stations in the northwestern Philippines. Summer monsoons tended to start earlier in May after the mid-1990s. Other early onset periods were found during the 1900s, 1920s, and 1930s, and an interdecadal variability of summer monsoon onset was identified. Independent surface wind data observed by ships in the South China Sea (SCS) revealed prevailing westerly wind in May during the early monsoon onset period. To identify atmospheric structures that trigger Philippine summer monsoon onset, we focused on the year 2013, conducting intensive upper-air observations. Tropical cyclone (TC) Yagi traveled northward in the Philippine Sea (PS) in 2013 and triggered the Philippine monsoon onset by intensifying moist low-level southwesterly wind in the southwestern Philippines and intensifying low-level southerly wind after the monsoon onset in the northwestern Philippines. The influence of TC was analyzed by the probability of the existence of TC in the PS and the SCS since 1951, which was found to be significantly correlated with the Philippine summer monsoon onset date. After the mid-1990s, early monsoon onset was influenced by active TC formation in the PS and the SCS. However, the role of TC activity decreased during the late summer monsoon periods. In general, it was found that TC activity in the PS and the SCS plays a key role in initiating Philippine summer monsoon onset. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

  6. Cloud-radiation-precipitation associations over the Asian monsoon region: an observational analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiandong; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Dong, Xiquan; Mao, Jiangyu

    2017-11-01

    This study uses 2001-2014 satellite observations and reanalyses to investigate the seasonal characteristics of Cloud Radiative Effects (CREs) and their associations with cloud fraction (CF) and precipitation over the Asian monsoon region (AMR) covering Eastern China (EC) and South Asia (SA). The CREs exhibit strong seasonal variations but show distinctly different relationships with CFs and precipitation over the two regions. For EC, the CREs is dominated by shortwave (SW) cooling, with an annual mean value of - 40 W m- 2 for net CRE, and peak in summer while the presence of extensive and opaque low-level clouds contributes to large Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) albedo (>0.5) in winter. For SA, a weak net CRE exists throughout the year due to in-phase compensation of SWCRE by longwave (LW) CRE associated with the frequent occurrence of high clouds. For the entire AMR, SWCRE strongly correlates with the dominant types of CFs, although the cloud vertical structure plays important role particularly in summer. The relationships between CREs and precipitation are stronger in SA than in EC, indicating the dominant effect of monsoon circulation in the former region. SWCRE over EC is only partly related to precipitation and shows distinctive regional variations. Further studies need to pay more attention to vertical distributions of cloud micro- and macro-physical properties, and associated precipitation systems over the AMR.

  7. Evolution of the Asian monsoon from the Cretaceous to the modern - a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunt, Dan; Farnsworth, Alex; Loptson, Claire; Markwick, Paul

    2014-05-01

    It has long been suggested that palaeogeography could have an important role in the modulation of the Asian monsoon. In particular, orogenesis associated with the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau has been associated with the intensification of the Asian monsoon through the Neogene, a paradigm which has some support from both data and modelling studies. Here we go further by considering the evolution of the Asian monsoon over a much longer time period than ususally considered, namely, the early Cretaceous right through to the modern day. Through a series of more than 30 climate model simulations spanning 150 million years, we investigate how changing palaeogeography (continental distribution, mountain height, and bathymetry) has affected monsoon evolution. The palaeogeographies are provided by Getech Plc, and we use the HadCM3L climate model, developed by the UK Met Office. All simulations are run for more than 500 years from an identical initial state. We show that a monsoon system has existed in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean since the early Cretaceous, but that intense precipitation only began to penetrate onto the east Asian continent in the late Paleogene and early Eocene. As well as focussing on the Asian (or proto-Asian for the earliest Cretaceous) monsoon, we present the results in a global context.

  8. Predictor-Year Subspace Clustering Based Ensemble Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moumita Saha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting the Indian summer monsoon is a challenging task due to its complex and nonlinear behavior. A large number of global climatic variables with varying interaction patterns over years influence monsoon. Various statistical and neural prediction models have been proposed for forecasting monsoon, but many of them fail to capture variability over years. The skill of predictor variables of monsoon also evolves over time. In this article, we propose a joint-clustering of monsoon years and predictors for understanding and predicting the monsoon. This is achieved by subspace clustering algorithm. It groups the years based on prevailing global climatic condition using statistical clustering technique and subsequently for each such group it identifies significant climatic predictor variables which assist in better prediction. Prediction model is designed to frame individual cluster using random forest of regression tree. Prediction of aggregate and regional monsoon is attempted. Mean absolute error of 5.2% is obtained for forecasting aggregate Indian summer monsoon. Errors in predicting the regional monsoons are also comparable in comparison to the high variation of regional precipitation. Proposed joint-clustering based ensemble model is observed to be superior to existing monsoon prediction models and it also surpasses general nonclustering based prediction models.

  9. The Preboreal-like Asian monsoon climate in the early last interglacial period recorded from the Dark Cave, Southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiuyang; He, Yaoqi; Wang, Xiaoyan; Sun, Xiaoshuang; Hong, Hui; Liu, Juan; Yu, Tsai-Luen; Li, Zhizhong; Shen, Chuan-Chou

    2017-08-01

    Transitions of glacial-interglacial cycles are critical periods for Quaternary climate shifts. Here, we present new, decadal resolution Asian summer monsoon (ASM) record from three stalagmites obtained from the Dark Cave in southwestern China over 130-114 thousand years ago (ka, before CE 1950). Chronology was anchored by 28 230Th dates with typical uncertainties of ±0.3-1.0 kyr, allowing an assessment of timing and transition of climate changes during the onset and end of the last interglacial. An agreement between this new and previous stalagmite δ18O records supports that summer insolation predominates orbital-scale ASM evolution. A 2-3 kyr-long gradually increasing ASM period, analogous to the classical Preboreal episode in the early Holocene, follows the termination of a weak monsoon interval at 129.0 ± 0.8 ka. This finding suggests a strong influence of high-latitude ice-sheet dynamics on Asian monsoonal conditions during the early interglacial period. An abrupt end of the marine isotope stage 5e at 118.8 ± 0.6 ka was probably caused by the internal climate system threshold effects.

  10. Relationships between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ice cover over selected oceanic regions

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The variations in oceanic ice cover at selected polar regions during 1973 to 1987 have been analysed in relation to the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The ice cover over the Arctic regions in June has negative relationship (correlation...

  11. Influence of eastern Arabian Sea on summer monsoon rainfall over west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshBabu, V.; Rao, M.S.; Rao, M.V.

    Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been assigned as one of the boundary conditions in the global circulation models for simulation of climatic changes. The effects of SST anomalies on the summer monsoon simulations are both of local...

  12. Coastal processes at the southern tip of India during summer monsoon 2005

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Smitha, B.R.; VimalKumar, K.G.; Sanjeevan, V.N.

    In situ temperature and wind data, during summer monsoon 2005, bring out some interesting features like, the existence of a purely wind driven upweiling system at the southern tip (ST), very adjacent to another remotely forced upweiling system...

  13. Interactions between trophic levels in upwelling and non-upwelling regions during summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Malik, A; Fernandes, C; Gonsalves, M.J.B.D.; Subina, N.S.; Mamatha, S.S.; Krishna, K.S.; Varik, S.; RituKumari; Gauns, M.; Cejoice, R.P.; Pandey, S.S.; Jineesh, V.K.; Kamaleson, A; Vijayan, V.; Mukherjee, I.; Subramanyan, S.; Nair, S.; Ingole, B.S; LokaBharathi, P.A

    Coastal upwelling is a regular phenomenon occurring along the southwest coast of India during summer monsoon (May–September). We hypothesize that there could be a shift in environmental parameters along with changes in the network of interactions...

  14. Water vapour flux divergence over the Arabian Sea during 1987 summer monsoon using satellite data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vinayachandran, P.N.; RameshKumar, M.R.

    WATERVAPOURFLUXDIVERGENCEOVERTHE ARABIAN SEA DURING 1987 SUMMER MONSOON USING SATELLITE DATA (Research Note) P. N. VINAYACHANDRAN and M. R. RAMESH KUMAR Physical Oceanography Division, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula 403004, Goa, India (Received in final form... 19 September, 1989) Abstract. The evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea (AS) for the summer monsoon months (June to September) of 1987 have been computed using the bulk-aerodynamic formula. The satellite derived precipitation from the INSAT-1B...

  15. Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

    2017-12-01

    Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630-3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

  16. Chemical isolation in the Asian monsoon anticyclone observed in Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE-FTS data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Park

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Evidence of chemical isolation in the Asian monsoon anticyclone is presented using chemical constituents obtained from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer instrument during summer (June–August of 2004–2006. Carbon monoxide (CO shows a broad maximum over the monsoon anticyclone region in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS; these enhanced CO values are associated with air pollution transported upward by convection, and confined by the strong anticyclonic circulation. Profiles inside the anticyclone show enhancement of tropospheric tracers CO, HCN, C2H6, and C2H2 between ~12 to 20 km, with maxima near 13–15 km. Strong correlations are observed among constituents, consistent with sources from near-surface pollution and biomass burning. Stratospheric tracers (O3, HNO3 and HCl exhibit decreased values inside the anticyclone between ~12–20 km. These observations are further evidence of transport of lower tropospheric air into the UTLS region, and isolation of air within the anticyclone. The relative enhancements of tropospheric species inside the anticyclone are closely related to the photochemical lifetime of the species, with strongest enhancement for shorter lived species. Vertical profiles of the ratio of C2H2/CO (used to measure the relative age of air suggest relatively rapid transport of fresh emissions up to the tropopause level inside the anticyclone.

  17. Early forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon: case study 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

    2017-04-01

    The prior knowledge of dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon is of vital importance for the population of the Indian subcontinent. In May 2016 before monsoon season, India recorded its highest-ever temperature of 51C. Hot waves have decimated crops, killed livestock and left 330 million people without enough water. At the end of monsoon season the floods in Indian this year have also broken previous records. Severe and devastating rainfall poured down, triggering dams spilling and floods. Such extreme conditions pose the vital questions such as: When will the monsoon come? When will the monsoon withdraw? More lead time in monsoon forecast warning is crucial for taking appropriate decisions at various levels - from the farmer's field (e.g. plowing day, seeding) to the central government (e.g. managing water and energy resources, food procurement policies). The Indian Meteorological Department issues forecasts of onset of monsoon for Kerala state in South India on May 15-th. It does not give such predictions for the other 28 states of the country. Our study concerns the central part of India. We made the monsoon forecast using our recently developed method which focuses on Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon [1]. Our prediction relies on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity from both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. We performed both of our forecasts for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon for the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E). We predicted the monsoon arrival to the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E) on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. The prediction was made on May 6-th, 2016 [2], that is 40 days in advance of the date of the forecast. The actual monsoon arrival was June 17-th. In this day near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcame the critical values and the monsoon season started, that was confirmed by observations of meteorological stations located around the EG-region. We

  18. Mid-late Holocene Asian monsoon evolution indicated by peat deposits in the source area of the Yellow River, northeastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qingfeng; Jin, Huijun; Huang, Yadong

    2017-10-01

    Study of climatic evolution in the source area of the Yellow River (SAYR) and its mechanisms is of significance for understanding and predicting the climate and environmental changes and permafrost evolution on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). This study reconstructed the Asian monsoon and climatic evolution in SAYR since 6.1 cal (cal = the calendar year, as below) ka BP in the mid-late Holocene using geochemical parameters (i.e., SiO2/[RO+R2O], SiO2/Al2O3, SiO2/TiO2, SiO2/[Al2O3 + Fe2O3], chemical index of alteration (Al2O3/[Al2O3 + CaO* + Na2O + K2O]), chemical index of weathering (Al2O3/[Al2O3 + CaO* + Na2O]), [CaO + K2O + Na2O]/Al2O3 and K/Na ratios) of peat deposits and AMS 14C chronology. The climate was warm and humid between 6.1 and 5.4 cal ka BP, with weak winter monsoon intensity and strong summer monsoon intensity, and accompanied by strong chemical weathering and leaching. From 5.4 to 1.5 cal ka BP, the climate was relatively cold and dry with enhanced winter monsoon and weakened summer monsoon intensities. During 1.5 and 0.8 cal ka BP, with the winter and summer monsoon changing rapidly, lower winter monsoon intensity, higher summer monsoon intensity, and higher chemical weathering and leaching since 6.1 cal ka BP indicated a warm and humid regional climate. It has been relatively cold and dry as a whole, with a trend of being warm and wet, since 0.8 cal ka BP, accompanied by gradually weakened winter monsoon intensity, gradually enhanced summer monsoon intensity, and gradually enhanced chemical weathering and leaching. The Asian monsoon and climatic evolution process in SAYR is highly unstable and has undergone centennial-millennial scale oscillations since 6.1 cal ka BP. Also, six phases at 6.1-5.9, 4.5-4.2, 2.7-2.4, 1.9-1.7, 1.5-1.4, and 0.6-0.4 cal ka BP correspond with cold events recorded by peat and lacustrine deposits and ice cores on the northeastern and eastern TP and with deep-sea sediments in high-latitude regions in the Northern

  19. Change in the relationship between the Australian summer monsoon circulation and boreal summer precipitation over Central China in the late 1990s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ruowen; Wang, Jian; Zhang, Tianyu; He, Shengping

    2017-09-01

    Recent study revealed a close connection between the Australian summer monsoon (ASM) and boreal summer precipitation over Central China (SPCC). This study further revealed a strengthening of the ASM-SPCC relationship around the late 1990s. It is found that the relationship between the ASM and the SPCC during 1979-1997 (1998-2014) relationship is statistically insignificant (significant). Further analysis indicated that during 1998-2014, the weakened ASM is concurrent with significant positive sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, which could persist into the following boreal summer and further lead to intensified East Asian summer monsoon, strengthened western North Pacific subtropical high, and anomalous ascending motion over Central China. Consequently, more moisture is transported from the western Pacific northward to Central China where significant anomalous convergence appears. Therefore, the ASM could potentially influence the SPCC during 1998-2014. By contrast, the ASM-related SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies in boreal winter are statistically insignificant during 1979-1997. Such an interdecadal change might be attributed to the interdecadal warming that occurred in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea around the late 1990s. This study might be useful for the prediction of the SPCC.

  20. The effect of the Asian Monsoon to the atmospheric boundary layer over the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Maoshan; Su, Zhongbo; Chen, Xuelong; Zheng, Donghai; Sun, Fanglin; Ma, Yaoming; Hu, Zeyong

    2016-04-01

    needed temporal and spatial coupling and means for validation of mesoscale model simulations (Zhong et al., 2009, 2011). When these time series are integrated into energy balance analyses methods (Su, 2002, 2005) with reanalysis data, plateau scale diurnal radiative and turbulence fluxes can be generated (Oku et al., 2005; Su et al., 2010) for the study of the boundary layer atmospheric structures at plateau scale. As such regional land-atmosphere feedbacks and atmospheric boundary layer structures can be studied. The quantification of the multi-scale atmospheric boundary layer and land surface processes over the heterogeneous underlying surface of the Tibetan Plateau is a challenging problem that remains unsettled despite many years of efforts. Using field observation, truth investigation, land surface process parameterization and meso-scale simulation, the dynamical and thermal uniform function of the atmospheric boundary layer and its effect to the atmospheric boundary layer will be analyzed in this research. Results The different characteristics of the Boundary layer with Asia monsoon season exchange over TP The height of atmospheric boundary layer was higher before monsoon season than it in summer. It was around 3-4 km above the ground in spring, while it was 1-2 km during monsoon season. It due to sensible heat flux was stronger in spring than it in summer. Using wavelet analysis method, we decomposed the wind include horizontal and vertical velocity from radiosounding observational data. The reason of high boundary layer height was disclosed. Compared to the observation, the output of model was underestimation during spring, while it was reasonable in summer monsoon. The effect of the Asian Monsoon to the precipitation on the TP Numerical simulation of climate on the TP was implemented for the whole year of 2008 using WRF-Noah model. The output of the WRF model is compared to TRMM data set for precipitation and ERA-interim land product for soil moisture. Modeled

  1. Predicting onset and withdrawal of Indian Summer Monsoon in 2016: results of Tipping elements approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

    2017-04-01

    The monsoon is the season of rain caused by a global seasonal reverse in winds direction and a change in pressure distribution. The Southwest winds bring summer monsoon to India. The economy of India is able to maintain its GDP in the wake of a good monsoon. However, if monsoon gets delayed by even two weeks, it can spell disaster because the high population depending on agriculture - 70% of its people directly related to farming. Agriculture, in turn, is dependent on the monsoon. Although the rainy season happens annually between June and September, the time of monsoon season's onset and withdrawal varies within a month from year to year. The important feature of the monsoon is that it starts and ends suddenly. Hence, despite enormous progress having been made in predicting monsoon since 1886, it remains a significant scientific challenge. To make predictions of monsoon timing in 2016, we applied our recently developed method [1]. Our approach is based on a teleconnection between the Eastern Ghats (EG) and North Pakistan (NP) - Tipping Elements of Indian Summer Monsoon. Both our predictions - for monsoon onset and withdrawal - were made for the Eastern Ghats region (EG-20N,80E) in the central part of India, while the Indian Meteorological Department forecasts monsoon over Kerala - a state at the southern tip of the Indian subcontinent. Our prediction for monsoon onset was published on May 6-th, 2016 [2]. We predicted the monsoon arrival to the EG on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. In fact, monsoon onset was on June 17-th, that was confirmed by information from meteorological stations located around the EG-region. Hence, our prediction of monsoon onset (made 40 days in advance) was correct. We delivered the prediction of monsoon withdrawal on July 27, 2016 [3], announcing the monsoon withdrawal from the EG on October 5-th with a deviation of +/-5 days. The actual monsoon withdrawal started on October 10-th when the relative humidity in the region

  2. Air sea interaction during summer monsoon period of 1979

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    The present study highlights the utility of satellite derived parameters like SST, precipitation, CMV winds in the lower troposphere etc. in supplementing the in-situ observations. This information can lead to a better understanding of the monsoon...

  3. Remote and Local SST Forcing in Shaping Asian-Australian Monsoon Anomalies

    OpenAIRE

    Tim, LI; Y. C., TUNG; J. W., HWU; IPRC and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii; Central Weather Bureau

    2005-01-01

    The most striking feature of the Asian-Australian monsoon associated with the El Nino teleconnection is the evolution of anomalous anticyclones over the western North Pacific (WNP) and southeast Indian Ocean (SIO). In this study we investigated the relative role of remote and local SST forcing in shaping the monsoon anomalies with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Four idealized AGCM experiments were designed to isolate the effect of anomalous SST forcing from the tropical east...

  4. Aerosol loading impact on Asian monsoon precipitation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Riccardo; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Costabile, Francesca; Cairo, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    Solar light absorption by aerosols such as black carbon and dust assume a key role in driving the precipitation patterns in the Indian subcontinent. The aerosols stack up against the foothills of the Himalayas in the pre-monsoon season and several studies have already demonstrated that this can cause precipitation anomalies during summer. Despite its great significance in climate change studies, the link between absorbing aerosols loading and precipitation patterns remains highly uncertain. The main challenge for this kind of studies is to find consistent and reliable datasets. Several aerosol time series are available from satellite and ground based instruments and some precipitation datasets from satellite sensors, but they all have different time/spatial resolution and they use different assumptions for estimating the parameter of interest. We have used the aerosol estimations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and validated them against the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the Indian area. The precipitation has been analyzed by using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimations and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2). From our results it is evident the discrepancy between the aerosol loading on the area of interest from the OMI, AATSR, and MODIS, but even between 3 different algorithms applied to the MODIS data. This uncertainty does not allow to clearly distinguishing high aerosol loading years from low aerosol loading years except in a couple of cases where all the estimations agree. Similar issues are also present in the precipitation estimations from TRMM and MERRA-2. However, all the aerosol datasets agree in defining couples of consecutive years with a large gradient of aerosol loading. Based on this assumption we have compared the precipitation anomalies and

  5. Multidecadal changes in the Etesians-Indian Summer Monsoon teleconnection along the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Delgado, F. de Paula; Vega, Inmaculada; Gallego, David; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Ribera, Pedro; García-Herrera, Ricardo

    2017-04-01

    In this work we made use of historical winds record taken aboard ships to reconstruct a series of the prevalent summer northerly winds (Etesian winds) over the Eastern Mediterranean for the entire 20th century. Previous studies have shown a significant link between the frequency and strength of these winds and the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), but this relationship had only been studied in detail for the second half of the 20th century due to the absence of long and continous series of observed wind in the Eastern Mediterranean for previous periods. In this work, a new climatic index, the so-called " Etesian Wind Index " (EWI), is defined as the percentage of days with prevalent northerly wind (wind blowing from 305° to 35°) in a fixed region [20E-30E, 32N-37N]. By using historical wind observations, we have been able to compute this index for the summer (JJAS) since 1880 and analyze the long term variability of the Etesians, as well as to research into its relation with the ISM at an unprecedent temporal coverage. A running coverage analysis revealed a strong and significant positive correlation between the EWI and the strength of the ISM for the period 1960-1980, more markedly in July and August. This result is in accordance with other recent studies. However, we have found that the correalation fades out in the first half of the 20th century (1900-1950) and in the period 1980-2012, even showing significant negative values around the subperiod 1920-1950. Similar indices to the EWI were computed using two different 20th century reanalysis datasets (ERA20C and 20CR-V2C). Despite the fact that both indices show some discrepancies with the EWI before 1950, the correlation analysis with the ISM revealed similar results, pointing out a strong loss of the EWI-ISM correlation in the first half of the 20th century and from 1980 onwards, as well as a marked positive correlated period between 1960 and 1980, specially in August. In this study, we show that

  6. Regional simulation of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations at gray-zone resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xingchao; Pauluis, Olivier M.; Zhang, Fuqing

    2018-01-01

    Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon by the cloud-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at gray-zone resolution are described in this study, with a particular emphasis on the model ability to capture the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs). Five boreal summers are simulated from 2007 to 2011 using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as the lateral boundary forcing data. Our experimental setup relies on a horizontal grid spacing of 9 km to explicitly simulate deep convection without the use of cumulus parameterizations. When compared to simulations with coarser grid spacing (27 km) and using a cumulus scheme, the 9 km simulations reduce the biases in mean precipitation and produce more realistic low-frequency variability associated with MISOs. Results show that the model at the 9 km gray-zone resolution captures the salient features of the summer monsoon. The spatial distributions and temporal evolutions of monsoon rainfall in the WRF simulations verify qualitatively well against observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), with regional maxima located over Western Ghats, central India, Himalaya foothills, and the west coast of Myanmar. The onset, breaks, and withdrawal of the summer monsoon in each year are also realistically captured by the model. The MISO-phase composites of monsoon rainfall, low-level wind, and precipitable water anomalies in the simulations also agree qualitatively with the observations. Both the simulations and observations show a northeastward propagation of the MISOs, with the intensification and weakening of the Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea during the active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon.

  7. Changes in the in-phase relationship between the Indian and subsequent Australian summer monsoons during the past five decades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-Y. Yu

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the decadal changes in the in-phase relationship between Indian summer monsoon and the subsequent Australian summer monsoon using observational data from 1950–2005. The in-phase relationship is the tendency for a strong Indian summer monsoon to be followed by a strong Australian summer monsoon and vice versa. It is found that the in-phase relationship was weak during the late 1950s and early 1960s, strengthened to a maximum in the early 1970s just before the 1976/77 Pacific climate shift, then declined until the late 1990s. Pacific SST anomalies are noticed to have strong persistence from boreal to austral summer, providing the memory to connect the Indian and subsequent Australian summer monsoon. The simultaneous correlation between the Pacific SST anomalies and the Indian summer monsoon is always strong. It is the weakening and strengthening of the simultaneous correlation between the Australian summer monsoon and the Pacific SST anomalies that contributes to the decadal variations of the in-phase monsoon relation. This study suggests that the interaction between the Australian monsoon and the Pacific Ocean is crucial to tropical climate variability and has experienced significant changes over the past five decades.

  8. Sedimentary record on the Indian Summer Monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum: Evidence from the southeastern Andaman Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xuefa; Liu, Shengfa; Cao, Peng; Khokiattiwong, Somkiat; Kornkanitnan, Narumol

    2016-04-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) generated by across-equatorial pressure gradient between the Asian continent and the southern Indian Ocean is a major component of the Asian monsoon system and establishes interactions among the ocean, land and atmosphere. Provenance and paleoclimate changes in the Andaman Sea during the last 26 ka were reconstructed from high-resolution records of grain-size, major elements and Sr-Nd isotopes in core ADM-9. The values of ɛNd(0) and 87Sr/86Sr were in good agreement with those of Irrawaddy River sediments, indicating a common source of origin. Two sensitive grain-size intervals (3.4-7.5 and 16.8-21.2 μm) were identified; the former was controlled primarily by sea-level change, whereas the latter was related to Irrawaddy River discharge and South-west Current transport driven by the ISM. Proxies of chemical weathering (K/Al) and terrigenous input (Ti/Ca) coupled with sensitive grain-size interval (16.8-21.2 μm population) revealed that the ISM was weak during ~15-26 ka BP and then strengthened gradually to a maximum during ~7-9 ka BP; subsequently, the ISM exhibited a generally declining trend to ~2 ka BP. The variation of the ISM recorded in this work is consistent with ISM variations observed in an open area in the northern Indian Ocean and in adjacent continents, implying the evolution of the Asia summer monsoon since 26 ka.

  9. Moisture source for summer monsoon rainfall over India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Rao, D.P.

    Southwest monsoon plays a vital role in India's economy as the major income comes from agriculture. What could be the moisture source for this copious amount of rainfall over the Indian sub-continent?. This has been studied in detail and noticed...

  10. Summer monsoon onset over Kerala: New definition and prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    gested that the onset is related to the warming of the Eurasian region by diabatic heating. Thus, the onset of monsoon ... only on the global daily 1. ◦ × 1. ◦ normalized pre- cipitable water data with the threshold .... correlation and helps to reduce the degrees of freedom by restricting the number of independent variables (Rao ...

  11. Anomalous behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon 2009

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    by the strength of the Walker circulation (east- west circulation over the Pacific) and the regional monsoon Hadley circulation (north-south circula- tion over the Indian region). Walker circulation is represented as pressure-longitude section of vector winds constructed with zonal wind and negative of vertical pressure velocity ...

  12. Potential modulations of pre-monsoon aerosols during El Niño: impact on Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadnavis, S.; Roy, Chaitri; Sabin, T. P.; Ayantika, D. C.; Ashok, K.

    2017-10-01

    The potential role of aerosol loading on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the El Niño years are examined using satellite-derived observations and a state of the art fully interactive aerosol-chemistry-climate model. The Aerosol Index (AI) from TOMS (1978-2005) and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MISR spectroradiometer (2000-2010) indicate a higher-than-normal aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) during the pre-monsoon season with a concurrent El Niño. Sensitivity experiments using ECHAM5-HAMMOZ climate model suggests that this enhanced loading of pre-monsoon absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic plain can reduce the drought during El Niño years by invoking the `Elevated-Heat-Pump' mechanism through an anomalous aerosol-induced warm core in the atmospheric column. This anomalous heating upshot the relative strengthening of the cross-equatorial moisture inflow associated with the monsoon and eventually reduces the severity of drought during El Niño years. The findings are subject to the usual limitations such as the uncertainties in observations, and limited number of El Niño years (during the study period).

  13. Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; He, Chao; Chen, Zesheng

    2017-10-01

    The agrarian-based socioeconomic livelihood of densely populated South Asian countries is vulnerable to modest changes in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. How the ISM rainfall will evolve is a question of broad scientific and socioeconomic importance. In response to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, climate models commonly project an increase in ISM rainfall. This wetter ISM projection, however, does not consider large model errors in both the mean state and ocean warming pattern. Here we identify a relationship between biases in simulated present climate and future ISM projections in a multi-model ensemble: models with excessive present-day precipitation over the tropical western Pacific tend to project a larger increase in ISM rainfall under GHG forcing because of too strong a negative cloud-radiation feedback on sea surface temperature. The excessive negative feedback suppresses the local ocean surface warming, strengthening ISM rainfall projections via atmospheric circulation. We calibrate the ISM rainfall projections using this `present-future relationship’ and observed western Pacific precipitation. The correction reduces by about 50% of the projected rainfall increase over the broad ISM region. Our study identifies an improved simulation of western Pacific convection as a priority for reliable ISM projections.

  14. Multi-year model simulations of mineral dust distribution and transport over the Indian subcontinent during summer monsoon seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sijikumar, S.; Aneesh, S.; Rajeev, K.

    2016-08-01

    Aerosol distribution over the Arabian Sea and the Indian subcontinent during the northern hemispheric summer is dominated by mineral dust transport from the West Asian desert regions. The radiative impact of these dust plumes is expected to have a prominent role in regulating the Asian Summer Monsoon circulation. While satellite observations have provided information in the spatial distribution of aerosols over the oceanic regions during the season, their utility over the land is rather limited. This study examines the transport of mineral dust over the West Asian desert, the Indian subcontinent and the surrounding oceanic regions during the summer monsoon season with the help of a regional scale model, WRF-Chem. Geographical locations of prominent dust sources, altitude ranges of mineral dust transport and their inter-annual variations are examined in detail. Multi-year model simulations were carried out during 2007 to 2012 with a model integration from 15 May to 31 August of each year. Six-year seasonal mean (June to August) vertically integrated dust amount from 1000 to 300 hPa level shows prominent dust loading over the eastern parts of Arabian desert and the northwestern part of India which are identified as two major sources of dust production. Large latitudinal gradient in dust amount is observed over the Arabian Sea with the largest dust concentration over the northwestern part and is primarily caused by the prevailing northwesterly wind at 925 hPa level from the Arabian desert. The model simulations clearly show that most of the dust distributed over the Indo-Gangetic plane originates from the Rajasthan desert located in the northwestern part of India, whereas dust observed over the central and south peninsular India and over the Arabian Sea are mainly transported from the Arabian desert. Abnormal dust loading is observed over the north Arabian Sea during June 2008. This has been produced as a result of the low pressure system (associated with the onset of

  15. A road map for improving dry-bias in simulating the South Asian monsoon precipitation by climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Bidyut Bikash; Goswami, B. N.

    2017-09-01

    An outstanding problem of climate models is the persistent dry bias in simulating precipitation over the south Asian summer monsoon region. Guided by observations, it is hypothesized that the dry-bias in simulating precipitation by the models is related to underestimation of high pass variance by most models. An analysis of the simulated mean and variance in precipitation by 36 coupled models show that the dry bias in simulating the mean precipitation by the models is indeed proportional to the underestimation of the variance. Models also indicate that the underestimation of the high-pass variance arise due to the underestimation of the intense rainfall events by models. Further, it is found that the higher resolution models simulate increasingly reduced dry bias by simulating high-frequency variance better through better simulation probability of intense rainfall events. The robustness of our findings over different regions and during both boreal summer and winter seasons indicates the universality of the hypothesis.

  16. Quantifying pollution transport from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the lower stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ploeger, Felix; Konopka, Paul; Walker, Kaley; Riese, Martin

    2017-06-01

    Pollution transport from the surface to the stratosphere within the Asian monsoon circulation may cause harmful effects on stratospheric chemistry and climate. Here, we investigate air mass transport from the monsoon anticyclone into the stratosphere using a Lagrangian chemistry transport model. We show how two main transport pathways from the anticyclone emerge: (i) into the tropical stratosphere (tropical pipe), and (ii) into the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical lower stratosphere. Maximum anticyclone air mass fractions reach around 5 % in the tropical pipe and 15 % in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere over the course of a year. The anticyclone air mass fraction correlates well with satellite hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and carbon monoxide (CO) observations, confirming that pollution is transported deep into the tropical stratosphere from the Asian monsoon anticyclone. Cross-tropopause transport occurs in a vertical chimney, but with the pollutants transported quasi-horizontally along isentropes above the tropopause into the tropics and NH.

  17. Quantifying pollution transport from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the lower stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Ploeger

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Pollution transport from the surface to the stratosphere within the Asian monsoon circulation may cause harmful effects on stratospheric chemistry and climate. Here, we investigate air mass transport from the monsoon anticyclone into the stratosphere using a Lagrangian chemistry transport model. We show how two main transport pathways from the anticyclone emerge: (i into the tropical stratosphere (tropical pipe, and (ii into the Northern Hemisphere (NH extratropical lower stratosphere. Maximum anticyclone air mass fractions reach around 5 % in the tropical pipe and 15 % in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere over the course of a year. The anticyclone air mass fraction correlates well with satellite hydrogen cyanide (HCN and carbon monoxide (CO observations, confirming that pollution is transported deep into the tropical stratosphere from the Asian monsoon anticyclone. Cross-tropopause transport occurs in a vertical chimney, but with the pollutants transported quasi-horizontally along isentropes above the tropopause into the tropics and NH.

  18. On the dominant intra-seasonal modes over the East Asia-western North Pacific summer monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Kyung-Ja; Oh, Hyoeun

    2017-04-01

    Intra-seasonal monsoon prediction is the most imperative task due to high impact on 2/3 of world populations' daily life, but there remains an enduring challenge in climate science. The present study aims to provide a physical understanding of the sources for prediction of dominant intra-seasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon (EA-WNPSM): preMeiyu&Baiu, Changma&Meiyu, WNPSM, and monsoon gyre modes classified by the self-organizing map analysis. The major modes tend to be dominated by the moisture convergence of the moisture budget equation along the rain-band. The preMeiyu-Baiu mode is strongly linked to both the anomalous low-level convergence and vertical wind shear through baroclinic instability, and the Changma&Meiyu mode has a strengthened tropic-subtropics connection along the western north Pacific subtropical high, which induces vertical destabilization and strong convective instability. The WNPSM and monsoon gyre modes are characterized by anomalous southeasterly flow of warm and moist air from western north Pacific monsoon, and low-level easterly flow, respectively. Prominent difference in response to the ENSO leads to different effects of the Indian Ocean and western Pacific thermal state, and consequently, the distinct moisture supply and instability variations for the EASM intra-seasonal modes. We discuss the major driving forces of sub-seasonal variability over EA-WNPSM regions. Lastly we attempted to determine the predictability sources for the four modes in the EA-WNPSM. The selected predictors are based on the persistent and tendency signals of the SST/2m air temperature and sea level pressure fields, which reflect the asymmetric response to the ENSO and the ocean and land surface anomalous conditions. For the preMeiyu&Baiu mode, the SST cooling tendency over the WNP, which persists into summer, is the distinguishing contributor that results in strong baroclinic instability. A major precursor for the Changma&Meiyu mode

  19. The Influence of Somalia and Oman Upwellings on the Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izumo, T.; de Boyer Montégut, C.; Luo, J.; Behera, S. K.; Masson, S.; Yamagata, T.

    2006-12-01

    What controls the strength of the Indian summer monsoon is not well known yet. The Somalia and Oman upwellings peak during the summer monsoon and strongly cool the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Western Arabian Sea. A slight change in their strength can thus have strong impacts on the SST and extent of the Indian ocean warm pool, which is the main source of moisture for the monsoon. Here the role of Somalia and Oman upwellings on the strength of the Indian monsoon is evidenced using both observations and the high resolution SINTEX-F Coupled Global Circulation Model (CGCM), which accurately simulates the monsoon. Within the CGCM, the spring increase and summer maximum of the Western Arabian Sea coastal upwellings are removed in a sensitivity experiment (SENS) by imposing over the Indian Ocean the mean windstress, instead of the temporally varying one of the control experiment (CTL). The ocean circulation becomes nearly stationnary. In summer, the main change in SST in SENS is a strong warming (up to 2°C) along the East African coast where coastal upwelling and off-shore horizontal advection of upwelled waters usually cool SST. This SST warming leads to a strong increase in the monsoon extent and strength along the West coast of India up to 5 mm/day (about 25% of CTL). The mechanism is as follow: in SENS, summer SST warming in the upwelling region causes anomalous evaporation, which increases specific humidity of the air masses going over the upwelling region. The humidity transport thus increases all over the Arabian sea towards the coastal Ghats mountains of India. This finally leads to enhanced moisture convergence and precipitations along the West coast of India. This role of coastal upwelling and associated SST variations on the Indian monsoon is confirmed by observations since 1980. Correlation analysis shows that enhanced summer precipitations on the West Indian coast are usually associated with warmer SST in summer East of Somalia-Oman and North

  20. Interplay between the Westerlies and Asian monsoon recorded in Lake Qinghai sediments since 32 ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Zhisheng; Colman, Steven M.; Zhou, Weijian; Li, Xiaoqiang; Brown, Eric T.; Jull, A. J. Timothy; Cai, Yanjun; Huang, Yongsong; Lu, Xuefeng; Chang, Hong; Song, Yougui; Sun, Youbin; Xu, Hai; Liu, Weiguo; Jin, Zhangdong; Liu, Xiaodong; Cheng, Peng; Liu, Yu; Ai, Li; Li, Xiangzhong; Liu, Xiuju; Yan, Libin; Shi, Zhengguo; Wang, Xulong; Wu, Feng; Qiang, Xiaoke; Dong, Jibao; Lu, Fengyan; Xu, Xinwen

    2012-01-01

    Two atmospheric circulation systems, the mid-latitude Westerlies and the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), play key roles in northern-hemisphere climatic changes. However, the variability of the Westerlies in Asia and their relationship to the ASM remain unclear. Here, we present the longest and highest-resolution drill core from Lake Qinghai on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), which uniquely records the variability of both the Westerlies and the ASM since 32 ka, reflecting the interplay of these two systems. These records document the anti-phase relationship of the Westerlies and the ASM for both glacial-interglacial and glacial millennial timescales. During the last glaciation, the influence of the Westerlies dominated; prominent dust-rich intervals, correlated with Heinrich events, reflect intensified Westerlies linked to northern high-latitude climate. During the Holocene, the dominant ASM circulation, punctuated by weak events, indicates linkages of the ASM to orbital forcing, North Atlantic abrupt events, and perhaps solar activity changes. PMID:22943005

  1. The heat and moisture budgets of the atmosphere over central equatorial Indian Ocean during summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Gopalakrishna, V.V.; RameshBabu, V.; Sastry, J.S.

    on board four Russian ships during summer monsoon days (25 to 31 July 1977). The time mean net flux divergences of latent heat and dry static energy are found to be about - 0.366 and -0,471 x 1013 cal/sec respectively in the study area. Contributions from...

  2. Apparent relationship between thermal regime in Antarctic waters and Indian summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Menon, H.B.; RameshBabu, V.; Sastry, J.S.

    ) charts for the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean during 2 contrasting years (1977 and 1979) of summer monsoon over India. The results suggest an apparent relationship between the thermal regimes in the Antarctic waters of the Indian Ocean sector...

  3. Air pollution episodes associated with East Asian winter monsoons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hien, P.D., E-mail: pdhien@gmail.com [Vietnam Atomic Energy Agency, 59 Ly Thuong Kiet str. Hanoi (Viet Nam); Loc, P.D.; Dao, N.V. [National Hydro-Meteorological Center, 62-A2 Nguyen Chi Thanh str. Hanoi (Viet Nam)

    2011-11-01

    A dozen multi-day pollution episodes occur from October to February in Hanoi, Vietnam due to prolonged anticyclonic conditions established after the northeast monsoon surges (cold surges). These winter pollution episodes (WPEs) account for most of the 24-h PM{sub 10} exceedances and the highest concentrations of gaseous pollutants in Hanoi. In this study, WPEs were investigated using continuous air quality monitoring data and information on upper-air soundings and air mass trajectories. The 24-h pollutant concentrations are lowest during cold surges; concurrently rise thereafter reaching the highest levels toward the middle of a monsoon cycle, then decline ahead of the next cold surge. Each monsoon cycle usually proceeds through a dry phase and a humid phase as Asiatic continental cold air arrives in Hanoi through inland China then via the East China Sea. WPEs are associated with nighttime radiation temperature inversions (NRTIs) in the dry phase and subsidence temperature inversions (STIs) in the humid phase. In NRTI periods, the rush hour pollution peak is more pronounced in the evening than in the morning and the pollution level is about two times higher at night than in daytime. In STI periods, broad morning and evening traffic peaks are observed and pollution is as high at night as in daytime. The close association between pollution and winter monsoon meteorology found in this study for the winter 2003-04 may serve as a basis for advance warning of WPEs and for forecasting the 24-h pollutant concentrations. - Highlights: {yields} Dozen pollution episodes from Oct. to Feb in Hanoi associated with anticyclones after monsoon surges. {yields} 24-h concentrations of PM{sub 10}, SO{sub 2}, NO{sub 2}, CO rise after surge and decline ahead of the next. {yields} Episodes caused by nighttime radiation and subsidence inversions in dry and humid monsoon phases. {yields} Distinct diurnal variations of pollutant concentrations observed in the two periods. {yields} Close

  4. Impacts of the East Asian Monsoon on springtime dust concentrations over China: IMPACTS OF MONSOON ON DUST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Lamjiri, Maryam A. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; DeFlorio, Michael J. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Miller, Arthur J. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Now at Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Now at Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Singh, Balwinder [Now at Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2016-07-12

    We use 150 year preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model to quantify the impacts of the East Asian Monsoon strength on interannual variations of springtime dust concentrations over China. The simulated interannual variations in March-April-May (MAM) dust column concentrations range between 20–40% and 10–60% over eastern and western China, respectively. The dust concentrations over eastern China correlate negatively with the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) index, which represents the strength of monsoon, with a regionally averaged correlation coefficient of 0.64. Relative to the strongest EAM years, MAMdust concentrations in the weakest EAM years are higher over China, with regional relative differences of 55.6%, 29.6%, and 13.9% in the run with emissions calculated interactively and of 33.8%, 10.3%, and 8.2% over eastern, central, and western China, respectively, in the run with prescribed emissions. Both interactive run and prescribed emission run show the similar pattern of climate change between the weakest and strongest EAM years. Strong anomalous northwesterly and westerly winds over the Gobi and Taklamakan deserts during the weakest EAM years result in larger transport fluxes, and thereby increase the dust concentrations over China. These differences in dust concentrations between the weakest and strongest EAM years (weakest-strongest) lead to the change in the net radiative forcing by up to 8 and 3Wm2 at the surface, compared to 2.4 and +1.2Wm2 at the top of the atmosphere over eastern and western China, respectively.

  5. On the role of the cross equatorial flow on summer monsoon rainfall over India using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Schluessel, P.

    of the moisture needed for the summer monsoon rainfall comes from evapora- tion over the south Indian Ocean and off the horn of Africa. Recent study of Ramesh Kumar and Schluessel (1998) has obtained similar result for two recent contrasting monsoon years namely... the highest rainfall (961.5 mm). We have further regrouped this data into excess monsoon years (1983, 1988 and 1994) and deficit monsoon years (1982, 1986 and 1987) composites of checking whether the NCEP reanalysis is able to depict the contrasting monsoon...

  6. Tropospheric biennial oscillation and South Asian summer monsoon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    20

    In the present study, we have used the 10 ensemble member mean for detailed analysis. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather. Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-Interim; Dee et al. 2011) surface, 850 hPa and 200 hPa level winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), air-temperature and Climate Prediction Center.

  7. Role of the tropical Pacific Ocean in strengthening the East Asian Monsoon: Climate model study of MIS-13

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karami, M.; Herold, N.; Yin, Q.; Berger, A.

    2012-12-01

    Studying past climates is a valuable approach to improve our understanding of the present and future climate systems. Among the significant events in the history of climate, the interglacial periods are good candidates for representation of the future climate because of their astronomical characteristics and their similarity to predicted anthropogenic warming. Moreover, some interglacials exhibited significant changes in atmospheric and oceanic properties due to only small changes in their climatic forcing (greenhouse gases and solar insolation) which also make them a good case for investigating past climates. For instance, the interglacial stage of around 0.5 Ma identified as Marine Isotopic stage 13 (MIS-13), the focus of this study, was characterized by extremely strong East Asian and Indian summer monsoons while the CO2 and CH4 levels were lower and seasonal radiation energy could reach up to 50 Wm-2 higher than today. The extreme monsoon precipitation is quite unexpected for a climate with such forcing. To understand the physics-based mechanism that enhances the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) during MIS-13, we used two fully coupled general circulation models, the HadCM3 and CCSM3. In MIS-13 experiments, concentrations of greenhouse gases were prescribed lower than in pre-industrial and seasonal insolation characterised by Northern-Hemisphere (NH) summer occurring at perihelion instead of aphelion as it does today. Results of both models confirm increased summer precipitation in the monsoon regions. We find that the tropical Pacific Ocean plays a major role in strengthening the EASM in MIS-13. Simulations of MIS-13 show stronger easterly surface winds along the equatorial Pacific and a subsequent increase in the mean thermocline tilt, in addition to a westward shift of the cold tongue. These changes alter the background climatic state of the equatorial Pacific towards a La Niña-type state. The interannual variability around the La Niña-like background

  8. Prediction of Indian Summer-Monsoon Onset Variability: A Season in Advance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Maheswar; Rao, A Suryachandra; Srivastava, Ankur; Dakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Shameera, K S

    2017-10-27

    Monsoon onset is an inherent transient phenomenon of Indian Summer Monsoon and it was never envisaged that this transience can be predicted at long lead times. Though onset is precipitous, its variability exhibits strong teleconnections with large scale forcing such as ENSO and IOD and hence may be predictable. Despite of the tremendous skill achieved by the state-of-the-art models in predicting such large scale processes, the prediction of monsoon onset variability by the models is still limited to just 2-3 weeks in advance. Using an objective definition of onset in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the skillful prediction of onset variability is feasible under seasonal prediction framework. The better representations/simulations of not only the large scale processes but also the synoptic and intraseasonal features during the evolution of monsoon onset are the comprehensions behind skillful simulation of monsoon onset variability. The changes observed in convection, tropospheric circulation and moisture availability prior to and after the onset are evidenced in model simulations, which resulted in high hit rate of early/delay in monsoon onset in the high resolution model.

  9. Can the Southern annular mode influence the Korean summer monsoon rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhu, Amita; Kripalani, Ramesh; Oh, Jaiho; Preethi, Bhaskar

    2017-05-01

    We demonstrate that a large-scale longitudinally symmetric global phenomenon in the Southern Hemisphere sub-polar region can transmit its influence over a remote local region of the Northern Hemisphere traveling more than 100° of latitudes (from 70°S to 40°N). This is illustrated by examining the relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Korean Monsoon Rainfall (KMR) based on the data period 1983-2013. Results reveal that the May-June SAM (MJSAM) has a significant in-phase relationship with the subsequent KMR. A positive MJSAM is favorable for the summer monsoon rainfall over the Korean peninsula. The impact is relayed through the central Pacific Ocean. When a negative phase of MJSAM occurs, it gives rise to an anomalous meridional circulation in a longitudinally locked air-sea coupled system over the central Pacific that propagates from sub-polar to equatorial latitudes and is associated with the central Pacific warming. The ascending motion over the central Pacific descends over the Korean peninsula during peak-boreal summer resulting in weakening of monsoon rainfall. The opposite features prevail during a positive phase of SAM. Thus, the extreme modes of MJSAM could possibly serve as a predictor for ensuing Korean summer monsoon rainfall.

  10. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2015-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

  11. The influence of vegetation on the ITCZ and South Asian monsoon in HadCM3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. P. McCarthy

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The role of global vegetation on the large-scale tropical circulation is examined in the version 3 Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3. Alternative representations of global vegetation cover from observations and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM were used as the land-cover component for a number of HadCM3 experiments under a nominal present day climate state, and compared to the simulations using the standard land cover map of HadCM3. The alternative vegetation covers result in a large scale cooling of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics relative to the HadCM3 standard, resulting in a southward shift in the location of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ. A significant reduction in Indian monsoon precipitation is also found, which is related to a weakening of the South Asian monsoon circulation, broadly consistent with documented mechanisms relating to temperature and snow perturbations in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics in winter and spring, delaying the onset of the monsoon.

    The role of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics on tropical climate is demonstrated, with an additional representation of vegetation cover based on DGVM simulated changes in Northern Hemisphere vegetation from the end of the 21st Century. This experiment shows that through similar processes the simulated extra-tropical vegetation changes in the future contribute to a strengthening of the South Asian monsoon in this model. These findings provide renewed motivation to give careful consideration to the role of global scale vegetation feedbacks when looking at climate change, and its impact on the tropical circulation and South Asian monsoon in the latest generation of Earth System models.

  12. A comparative study of the Indian summer monsoon hydroclimate and its variations in three reanalyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Misra, Vasubandhu [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Florida State University, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Pantina, P. [Science Systems and Application, Inc., Lanham, MD (United States); NASA/GSFC, Cloud and Radiation Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Chan, S.C. [Newcastle University, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle upon Tyne (United Kingdom); Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter (United Kingdom); DiNapoli, S. [Florida State University, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2012-09-15

    This study examines the Indian summer monsoon hydroclimate in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) Reanalysis (R2), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The three reanalyses show significant differences in the climatology of evaporation, low-level winds, and precipitable water fields over India. For example, the continental evaporation is significantly less in CFSR compared to R2 and MERRA. Likewise the mean boreal summer 925 hPa westerly winds in the northern Indian Ocean are stronger in R2. Similarly the continental precipitable water in R2 is much less while it is higher and comparable in MERRA and CFSR. Despite these climatological differences between the reanalyses, the climatological evaporative sources for rain events over central India show some qualitative similarities. Major differences however appear when interannual variations of the Indian summer monsoon are analyzed. The anomalous oceanic sources of moisture from the adjacent Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea play a significant role in determining the wet or dry year of the Indian monsoon in CFSR. However in R2 the local evaporative sources from the continental region play a more significant role. We also find that the interannual variability of the evaporative sources in the break spells of the intraseasonal variations of the Indian monsoon is stronger than in the wet spells. We therefore claim that instead of rainfall, evaporative sources may be a more appropriate metric to observe the relationship between the seasonal monsoon strength and intraseasonal activity. These findings are consistent across the reanalyses and provide a basis to improve the predictability of intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. This study also has a bearing on improving weather prediction for tropical cyclones in that we suggest targeting enhanced observations in the Bay of Bengal

  13. Amplification of the ENSO Effects on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall by Absorbing Aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sang, Jeong; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Woo-Seop

    2015-04-01

    In this study, we present observational evidence of the elevated heat pump (EHP) effect and modulation of the ENSO effect on Indian summer monsoon rainfall by absorbing aerosols based on a composite analysis of satellite measurements and MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2011. Results show that in the pre-monsoon season (April to May) rainfall during a La Nina is reduced over the expansive desert region from western Asia, including the Middle East, to northern India and thereby the La Nina effect provides abundant aerosols that are necessary to work the EHP effect in the northern India. Thus, the EHP effect due to abundant absorbing aerosols during a La Nina phase is strongly associated with atmospheric warming, increased moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to the Bay of Bengal, and enhanced pre-monsoon (May-June) rainfall over northern India. As a result, precipitation in May to June in northern India (20-30°N) increases by approximately 20% and 25% due to the pure ENSO (PENSO) and EHP effects, respectively, while precipitation in May and June increased by approximately 30% due to the combined effect. This finding suggests that the EHP effect plays an important role in amplifying the La Nina effect on Indian summer monsoon.

  14. A summer monsoon pump to keep the Bay of Bengal salty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinayachandran, P. N.; Shankar, D.; Vernekar, Siddharth; Sandeep, K. K.; Amol, P.; Neema, C. P.; Chatterjee, Abhisek

    2013-05-01

    The Bay of Bengal receives a large influx of freshwater from precipitation and river discharge. Outflow of excess freshwater and inflow of saltier water is required to prevent the bay from freshening. Relatively fresh water flows out of the bay along its boundaries and inflow of saltier water occurs via the Summer Monsoon Current (SMC), which flows eastward from the Arabian Sea into the bay. This saltier water, however, slides under the lighter surface water of the bay. Maintaining the salt balance of the bay therefore demands upward mixing of this saltier, subsurface water. Here, we show that an efficient mechanism for this mixing is provided by upward pumping of saltier water in several bursts during the summer monsoon along the meandering path of the SMC. Advection by currents can then take this saltier water into the rest of the basin, allowing the bay to stay salty despite a large net freshwater input.

  15. Active and break events of Indian summer monsoon during 1901-2014

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Pai; Sridhar, L.; RameshKumar, M.R.

    . Dyn., vol.46(11); 2016; 3921-3939 Active and Break Events of Indian Summer Monsoon during 1901-2014 D.S. Pai*, Latha Sridhar* and M. R. Ramesh Kumar** *India Meteorological Department, Pune **National Institute of Oceanography, Goa Contact e... & Slingo 2001, Gadgil & Joseph 2003, Ramesh Kumar and Desai 2004, Mandke et al. 2007, Krishnamurthy and Shukla 2000, 2007 & 2008, Rajeevan et al. 2010, Pai et al. 2011). Rajeevan et al. (2010) suggested criteria for identification of active and break...

  16. The influence of the tropical circulation on Indian summer monsoon during ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Y.; Straus, D. M.

    2009-12-01

    The influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Indian Summer Monsoon circulation is studied; focus is on the mechanism involving the change in the tropical circulation, particularly in the western Pacific. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is used for mechanistic studies on how the tropical circulation changes (especially movement of regions of ascent and descent) during ENSO influence the Indian Summer Monsoon. For this purpose, additional idealized heating is inserted into the full CAM in the context of summer simulations with climatological SST in order to induce rising motion anomalies that represent the modification of the Walker circulation under different summer time ENSO SST conditions. In this manner, the inadequacies of the parameterization of deep convection in responding to ENSO SST anomalies are avoided. The sensitivity of response of the idealized heating is also tested with different magnitudes and locations of the heating. The coefficients of 2K/day and 1K/day are used for the different magnitudes of the heating. The different locations of heating are inserted from the tropical Indian Ocean to the tropical central Pacific. The inserted heating in each tropical region simulated Gill type responses, although the strength and propagation of the responses are different with the different locations of the heating. Despite of the different locations of the heating, strong remote responses over the Indian region are consistently simulated in CAM while the heating moves from the Indian Ocean to the central Pacific. This is a sort of geophysical fluid dynamics approach, but in the context of a realistic model. My metrics for judging changes in Indian Monsoon circulation will emphasize the Monsoon 3-d circulation.

  17. Abundance and relationship of bacteria with transparent exopolymer particles during the 1996 summer monsoon in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ramaiah, N.; Sarma, V.V.S.S.; Gauns, M.; DileepKumar, M.; Madhupratap, M.

    Bacterial abundance and production, numbers, sizes and concentrations of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) and total organic carbon (TOC) were measured during the 1996 summer monsoon to understand the relationship between TEP, the most labile...

  18. Surface circulation off Somalia and western equatorial Indian Ocean during summer monsoon of 1988 from Geosat altimeter data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Subrahmanyam, B.; RameshBabu, V.; Murty, V.S.N.; Rao, L.V.G.

    The sea level variability derived from repeating tracks of the Geosat altimeter data during the late phase (August-September) of the summer monsoon of 1988 revealed the presence of multiple meso-scale eddy features with clockwise and anti...

  19. Variability of mixed layer depth in the northern Indian Ocean during 1977 and 1979 summer monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.

    Influences of wind stress (tau) and wind stress curl (Grad Gamma) on the short term variability of the mixed layer depth at different locations in the northern Indian Ocean during different phases of summer monsoon activity were examined...

  20. Detecting human impacts on the flora, fauna, and summer monsoon of Pleistocene Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. H. Miller

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available The moisture balance across northern and central Australia is dominated by changes in the strength of the Australian Summer Monsoon. Lake-level records that record changes in monsoon strength on orbital timescales are most consistent with a Northern Hemisphere insolation control on monsoon strength, a result consistent with recent modeling studies. A weak Holocene monsoon relative to monsoon strength 65–60 ka, despite stronger forcing, suggests a changed monsoon regime after 60 ka. Shortly after 60 ka humans colonized Australia and all of Australia's largest mammals became extinct. Between 60 and 40 ka Australian climate was similar to present and not changing rapidly. Consequently, attention has turned toward plausible human mechanisms for the extinction, with proponents for over-hunting, ecosystem change, and introduced disease. To differentiate between these options we utilize isotopic tracers of diet preserved in eggshells of two large, flightless birds to track the status of ecosystems before and after human colonization. More than 800 dated eggshells of the Australian emu (Dromaius novaehollandiae, an opportunistic, dominantly herbivorous feeder, provide a 140-kyr dietary reconstruction that reveals unprecedented reduction in the bird's food resources about 50 ka, coeval in three distant regions. These data suggest a tree/shrub savannah with occasionally rich grasslands was converted abruptly to the modern desert scrub. The diet of the heavier, extinct Genyornis newtoni, derived from >550 dated eggshells, was more restricted than in co-existing Dromaius, implying a more specialized feeding strategy. We suggest that generalist feeders, such as Dromaius, were able to adapt to a changed vegetation regime, whereas more specialized feeders, such as Genyornis, became extinct. We speculate that ecosystem collapse across arid and semi-arid zones was a consequence of systematic burning by early humans

  1. Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West Africa during the AMMA field experiment in 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Janicot

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis program is dedicated to providing a better understanding of the West African monsoon and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally, as well as relating variability of this monsoon system to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations. Within this framework, an intensive field campaign took place during the summer of 2006 to better document specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of this monsoon season. This campaign was embedded within a longer observation period that documented the annual cycle of surface and atmospheric conditions between 2005 and 2007. The present paper provides a large and regional scale overview of the 2006 summer monsoon season, that includes consideration of of the convective activity, mean atmospheric circulation and synoptic/intraseasonal weather systems, oceanic and land surface conditions, continental hydrology, dust concentration and ozone distribution. The 2006 African summer monsoon was a near-normal rainy season except for a large-scale rainfall excess north of 15° N. This monsoon season was also characterized by a 10-day delayed onset compared to climatology, with convection becoming developed only after 10 July. This onset delay impacted the continental hydrology, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics as well as dust emission. More details of some less-well-known atmospheric features in the African monsoon at intraseasonal and synoptic scales are provided in order to promote future research in these areas.

  2. Quantifying pollution transport from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the lower stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ploeger, Felix; Konopka, Paul; Walker, Kaley; Riese, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Pollution transport from the surface to the stratosphere within the Asian monsoon circulation may cause harmful effects on stratospheric chemistry and climate. Here, we investigate air mass transport from the monsoon anticyclone into the stratosphere using the Lagrangian chemistry transport model CLaMS, together with satellite observations of HCN from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) instrument and observations of CO from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). We show how two main transport pathways from the anticyclone emerge: (i) into the tropical stratosphere (tropical pipe), and (ii) into the Northern hemisphere (NH) extratropical lower stratosphere. Maximum anticyclone air mass fractions reach around 5% in the tropical pipe and 15% in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere over the course of a year. The anticyclone air mass fraction correlates well with satellite HCN observations, corroborating that pollution is transported deep into the tropical stratosphere from the Asian monsoon anticyclone. Cross-tropopause transport occurs in a vertical chimney, but with the emissions „blown away" quasi-horizontally along isentropes above the tropopause into the tropics and NH.

  3. Elevated Trimethylarsine Oxide and Inorganic Arsenic in Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoonal Wet Deposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Laurie; Carey, Manus; Hossain, Mahmud; Islam, M Rafiqul; de Silva, P Mangala C S; Williams, Paul N; Meharg, Andrew A

    2017-11-07

    For arsenic speciation, the inputs for wet deposition are not well understood. Here we demonstrate that trimethylarsine oxide (TMAO) and inorganic arsenic are the dominant species in monsoonal wet deposition in the summer Indian subcontinent, Bangladesh, with inorganic arsenic dominating, accounting for ∼80% of total arsenic in this medium. Lower concentrations of both species were found in monsoonal wet deposition in the winter Indian subcontinent, Sri Lanka. The only other species present was dimethylarsinic acid (DMAA), but this was usually below limits of detection (LoD). We hypothesize that TMAO and inorganic arsenic in monsoonal wet deposition are predominantly of marine origin. For TMAO, the potential source is the atmospheric oxidation of marine derived trimethylarsine. For inorganic arsenic, our evidence suggests entrainment of water column inorganic arsenic into atmospheric particulates. These conclusions are based on weather trajectory analysis and on the strong correlations with known wet deposition marine derived elements: boron, iodine, and selenium. The finding that TMAO and inorganic arsenic are widely present and elevated in monsoonal wet deposition identifies major knowledge gaps that need to be addressed regarding the understanding of arsenic's global cycle.

  4. Sensitivity of convective precipitation to soil moisture and vegetation during break spell of Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutty, Govindan; Sandeep, S.; Vinodkumar; Nhaloor, Sreejith

    2017-07-01

    Indian summer monsoon rainfall is characterized by large intra-seasonal fluctuations in the form of active and break spells in rainfall. This study investigates the role of soil moisture and vegetation on 30-h precipitation forecasts during the break monsoon period using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The working hypothesis is that reduced rainfall, clear skies, and wet soil condition during the break monsoon period enhance land-atmosphere coupling over central India. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with modified initial soil moisture and vegetation. The results suggest that an increase in antecedent soil moisture would lead to an increase in precipitation, in general. The precipitation over the core monsoon region has increased by enhancing forest cover in the model simulations. Parameters such as Lifting Condensation Level, Level of Free Convection, and Convective Available Potential Energy indicate favorable atmospheric conditions for convection over forests, when wet soil conditions prevail. On spatial scales, the precipitation is more sensitive to soil moisture conditions over northeastern parts of India. Strong horizontal gradient in soil moisture and orographic uplift along the upslopes of Himalaya enhanced rainfall over the east of Indian subcontinent.

  5. The Indian summer monsoon rainfall: interplay of coupled dynamics, radiation and cloud microphysics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Patra

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR, which has a strong connection to agricultural food production, has been less predictable by conventional models in recent times. Two distinct years 2002 and 2003 with lower and higher July rainfall, respectively, are selected to help understand the natural and anthropogenic influences on ISMR. We show that heating gradients along the meridional monsoon circulation are reduced due to aerosol radiative forcing and the Indian Ocean Dipole in 2002. An increase in the dust and biomass-burning component of the aerosols through the zonal monsoon circulation resulted in reduction of cloud droplet growth in July 2002. These conditions were opposite to those in July 2003 which led to an above average ISMR. In this study, we have utilized NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for meteorological data (e.g. sea-surface temperature, horizontal winds, and precipitable water, NOAA interpolated outgoing long-wave radiation, IITM constructed all-India rainfall amounts, aerosol parameters as observed from the TOMS and MODIS satellites, and ATSR fire count maps. Based on this analysis, we suggest that monsoon rainfall prediction models should include synoptic as well as interannual variability in both atmospheric dynamics and chemical composition.

  6. Regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics inferred from speleothems: Potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.; Marwan, Norbert; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Rehfeld, Kira; Kurths, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system has been recognized as an important potential tipping element in Earth's climate. A global warming-driven change in monsoonal circulation, potentially towards a drier and more irregular regime, would profoundly affect up to 60% of the global human population. Hence, to improve our understanding of this major climate system, it is mandatory to investigate evidence for nonlinear transitions in past monsoonal dynamics and the underlying mechanisms that are contained in the available palaeoclimatic record. For this purpose, speleothems are among the best available high-resolution archives of Asian palaeomonsoonal variability during the Holocene and well beyond. In this work, we apply recurrence networks, a recently developed technique for nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate data (Donges et al., PNAS 108, 20422-20427, 2011), for detecting episodes with pronounced changes in Asian monsoon dynamics during the last 10 ka in oxygen isotope records from spatially distributed cave deposits covering the different branches of the Asian monsoon system. Our methodology includes multiple archives, explicit consideration of dating uncertainties with the COPRA approach and rigorous significance testing to ensure the robust detection of continental-scale changes in monsoonal dynamics. We identify several periods characterised by nonlinear changes in Asian monsoon dynamics (e.g., ~0.5, 2.2-2.8, 3.6-4.1, 5.4-5.7, and 8.0-8.5 ka before present [BP]), the timing of which suggests a connection to extra-tropical Bond events and rapid climate change (RCC) episodes during the Holocene. Interestingly, we furthermore detect an epoch of significantly increased regularity of monsoonal variations around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that is consistent with the typical 1.0-1.5 ka periodicity of Bond events but has been rarely reported in the literature so far. Furthermore, we find that the detected epochs of nonlinear regime shifts in Asian monsoon dynamics partly

  7. Inter-annual Controls on Oxygen Isotopes of Precipitaion in the Asian Monsoon Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, H.; Johnson, K. R.; Griffiths, M. L.; Yoshimura, K.

    2015-12-01

    The complex nature of speleothem δ18O from the Asian monsoon region is a result of the varying influences of monsoon strength, moisture source region, transport history, local cave hydrology and other effects on cave dripwater δ18O. In order to provide a more robust interpretation of speleothem δ18O data from the broader Asian monsoon region, we utilize existing simulations from the isotope-enabled GCM, IsoGSM (Yoshimura el al. 2008), to investigate the climatic controls on precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) at four cave locations: Dongge Cave, China (25°17' N, 108°5' E); Tham Mai Cave, Laos (20.75 N, 102.65 E); Mawmluh Cave, India (25°15'44''N, 91°52'54''E); and Qunf Cave, Oman (17°10' N, 54°18' E). Our composite speleothem records from Laos—a key site at the interface between the Indian and East Asian monsoon systems—will be used as a case study for interpreting speleothem δ18O in the South-East Asian Monsoon (SEAM) region. Our results show that δ18Op extracted from the grid point closest to four cave sites from IsoGSM shows very low correlation between δ18Op and local precipitation. δ18Op at Dongge cave reveals a negative correlation (0.4 to 0.5) with precipitation in the Bay of Bengal, suggesting that δ18Op from the East Asian monsoon area reflects upstream distillation over the Indian monsoon region. δ18Op in Laos exhibits a negative correlation with precipitation over the broad Indo-Pacific warm pool region, indicating increased convection over this area leads to more negative δ18Op over SE Asia. Given the low correlation between local precipitation and δ18Op at all four cave sites, we interpret the δ18Op at these locales as reflective of regional changes in hydroclimate, rather than local precipitation amount. In addition, δ18Op from IsoGSM at all fours sites, especially Qunf, Mawnluh, and Tham Mai cave, show a positive correlation with Pacific SSTs over the NINO3.4 region and in the western and northern Indian Ocean, suggesting that the

  8. Tibet, the Himalaya, Asian monsoons and biodiversity – In what ways are they related?

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    Robert A. Spicer

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Prevailing dogma asserts that the uplift of Tibet, the onset of the Asian monsoon system and high biodiversity in southern Asia are linked, and that all occurred after 23 million years ago in the Neogene. Here, spanning the last 60 million years of Earth history, the geological, climatological and palaeontological evidence for this linkage is reviewed. The principal conclusions are that: 1 A proto-Tibetan highland existed well before the Neogene and that an Andean type topography with surface elevations of at least 4.5 km existed at the start of the Eocene, before final closure of the Tethys Ocean that separated India from Eurasia. 2 The Himalaya were formed not at the start of the India–Eurasia collision, but after much of Tibet had achieved its present elevation. The Himalaya built against a pre-existing proto-Tibetan highland and only projected above the average height of the plateau after approximately 15 Ma. 3 Monsoon climates have existed across southern Asia for the whole of the Cenozoic, and probably for a lot longer, but that they were of the kind generated by seasonal migrations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. 4 The projection of the High Himalaya above the Tibetan Plateau at about 15 Ma coincides with the development of the modern South Asia Monsoon. 5 The East Asia monsoon became established in its present form about the same time as a consequence of topographic changes in northern Tibet and elsewhere in Asia, the loss of moisture sources in the Asian interior and the development of a strong winter Siberian high as global temperatures declined. 6 New radiometric dates of palaeontological finds point to southern Asia's high biodiversity originating in the Paleogene, not the Neogene.

  9. Impact of the Desert dust on the summer monsoon system over Southwestern North America

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    C. Zhao

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The radiative forcing of dust emitted from the Southwest United States (US deserts and its impact on monsoon circulation and precipitation over the North America monsoon (NAM region are simulated using a coupled meteorology and aerosol/chemistry model (WRF-Chem for 15 years (1995–2009. During the monsoon season, dust has a cooling effect (−0.90 W m−2 at the surface, a warming effect (0.40 W m−2 in the atmosphere, and a negative top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA forcing (−0.50 W m−2 over the deserts on 24-h average. Most of the dust emitted from the deserts concentrates below 800 hPa and accumulates over the western slope of the Rocky Mountains and Mexican Plateau. The absorption of shortwave radiation by dust heats the lower atmosphere by up to 0.5 K day−1 over the western slope of the Mountains. Model sensitivity simulations with and without dust for 15 summers (June-July-August show that dust heating of the lower atmosphere over the deserts strengthens the low-level southerly moisture fluxes on both sides of the Sierra Madre Occidental. It also results in an eastward migration of NAM-driven moisture convergence over the western slope of the Mountains. These monsoonal circulation changes lead to a statistically significant increase of precipitation by up to ~40 % over the eastern slope of the Mountains (Arizona-New~Mexico-Texas regions. This study highlights the interaction between dust and the NAM system and motivates further investigation of possible dust feedback on monsoon precipitation under climate change and the mega-drought conditions projected for the future.

  10. Effects of intraseasonal oscillation on South China Sea summer monsoon onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Liu, Fei; Wang, Bin; Li, Tim

    2017-12-01

    Understanding of South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset response to tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is critical for extended-range prediction of SCSSM onset. In this study, we investigate the effect of ISO on SCSSM onset for the period of 1980-2013. The 34 onset cases are classified into three groups, early onsets around May 6th, normal onsets around May 21st and late onsets around June 8th, and the late onsets are even later than the Indian monsoon onsets. Before each onset, the SCS experiences a dry ISO phase to precondition the convective energy due to the easterly wind anomalies of the wet ISO phase over the tropical Indian Ocean for the group of early onsets, over the southern Bay of Bengal monsoon region for the group of normal onsets and over the southern Indian monsoon region for the group of late onsets. After each onset, the SCSSM is supported by the westerly wind anomalies of the dry ISO phase over these associated regions. Each early SCSSM onset is triggered by the northwestward propagating Rossby wave of the wet ISO in the western Pacific which comes from the Indian Ocean. For each normal (late) onset, the SCSSM is triggered by synoptic-scale low-level westerlies in conjunction with seasonal low-level westerlies when the wet ISO moves to the northern Bay of Bengal region (Indian monsoon region), since this convection to the north of 10°N cannot excite the easterly wind anomalies associated with Kelvin wave responses over the SCS to suppress the convection. The mechanisms explaining the mean state-controlled ISO-SCSSM onset relationship are also discussed.

  11. Predicting Indian Summer Monsoon onset through variations of surface air temperature and relative humidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

    2015-04-01

    Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has an enormous effect on Indian agriculture, economy, and, as a consequence, life and prosperity of more than one billion people. Variability of the monsoonal rainfall and its onset have a huge influence on food production, agricultural planning and GDP of the country, which on 22% is determined by agriculture. Consequently, successful forecasting of the ISM onset is a big challenge and large efforts are being put into it. Here, we propose a novel approach for predictability of the ISM onset, based on critical transition theory. The ISM onset is defined as an abrupt transition from sporadious rainfall to spatially organized and temporally sustained rainfall. Taking this into account, we consider the ISM onset as is a critical transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon, which take place in time and also in space. It allows us to suggest that before the onset of ISM on the Indian subcontinent should be areas of critical behavior where indicators of the critical transitions can be detected through an analysis of observational data. First, we identify areas with such critical behavior. Second, we use detected areas as reference points for observation locations for the ISM onset prediction. Third, we derive a precursor for the ISM onset based on the analysis of surface air temperature and relative humidity variations in these reference points. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of this precursor on two observational data sets. The proposed approach allows to determine ISM onset in advance in 67% of all considered years. Our proposed approach is less effective during the anomalous years, which are associated with weak/strong monsoons, e.g. El-Nino, La-Nina or positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. The ISM onset is predicted for 23 out of 27 normal monsoon years (85%) during the past 6 decades. In the anomalous years, we show that time series analysis in both areas during the pre-monsoon period reveals indicators whether the

  12. Prediction of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over homogenous regions of India using dynamical prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Rao, Suryachadra A.; Pillai, Prasanth A.; Pradhan, M.; George, G.; Rao, D. Nagarguna; Mahapatra, S.; Pai, D. S.; Rajeevan, M.

    2017-03-01

    Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall is a challenging task for the modeling community and predicting seasonal mean rainfall at smaller regional scale is much more difficult than predicting all India averaged seasonal mean rainfall. The regional scale prediction of summer monsoon mean rainfall at longer lead time (e.g., predicting 3-4 months in advance) can play a vital role in planning of hydrological and agriculture aspects of the society. Previous attempts for predicting seasonal mean rainfall at regional level (over 5 Homogeneous regions) have resulted with limited success (anomaly correlation coefficient is low, ACC ≈ 0.1-0.4, even at a short lead time of one month). The high resolution Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) model, with spectral resolution of T382 (∼38 km), can predict the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) at lead time of 3-4 months, with a reasonably good prediction skill (ACC ≈ 0.55). In the present study, we have investigated whether the seasonal mean rainfall over different homogenous regions is predictable using the same model, at 3-4 months lead time? Out of five homogeneous regions of India three regions have shown moderate prediction skill, even at 3 months lead time. Compared to lower resolution model, high resolution model has good skill for all the regions except south peninsular India. High resolution model is able to capture the extreme events and also the teleconnections associated with large scale features at four months lead time and hence shows better skill (ACC ≈ 0.45) in predicting the seasonal mean rainfall over homogeneous regions.

  13. The climatology of East Asian winter monsoon and cold surges from 1979--1995 NCEP/NCAR reanalyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yi Zhang; Sperber, K.; Boyle, J.

    1996-04-01

    The East Asian winter monsoon, which is associated with the Siberian high and active cold surges, is one of the most energetic monsoon circulation systems. The dramatic shift of northeasterlies and the outbreak of cold surges dominate the winter weather and local climate in the East Asian region, and may exert a strong impact on the extratropical and tropical planetary-scale circulations and influence the SSTs in the tropical western Pacific. General characteristics of the winter monsoon and cold surges and their possible link with tropical disturbances are revealed in many observational studies. Little attention has been given to the climatological aspects of the winter monsoon and cold surges. The purpose of this study is to compile and document the East Asian mean winter circulation, and present the climatology of cold surges and the Siberian high based on the 1979--1995 NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Of particular interest is the interannual variation of winter monsoon circulation and cold surge events. Given that the cold surge activity and the Indonesian convection are much reduced during the 1982--83 period, one of the goals is to determine whether there exists a statistically significant relationship between ENSO and the interannual variation of winter monsoon and cold surges.

  14. Long-range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using data mining and statistical approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    H, Vathsala; Koolagudi, Shashidhar G.

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents a hybrid model to better predict Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The algorithm considers suitable techniques for processing dense datasets. The proposed three-step algorithm comprises closed itemset generation-based association rule mining for feature selection, cluster membership for dimensionality reduction, and simple logistic function for prediction. The application of predicting rainfall into flood, excess, normal, deficit, and drought based on 36 predictors consisting of land and ocean variables is presented. Results show good accuracy in the considered study period of 37years (1969-2005).

  15. Long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall from SST in the central equatorial Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Murthy, T.V.R.

    et al.4.The role of Eastern (Soman and Sling02;Rasmusson and Carpentir6 and Joseph et al.'6), and Western26.22.4 Pacific, north Australia-Indonesia region Nicholls 15.16 and Indian Ocean (Clark et al.8i Joseph and Pillar'~ Sadhuram18;Rao and Goswami 9... rainfall from sea surface temperature in the Indonesia north Australia area', Nature, Vol. 306, pp.576-577. 16. Nicholls, N., 1995, 'All India Summer monsoon rainfallandseasurfacetemperaturearoundnorthern Australia Indonesia',J. Clim.,8, 1463-1467. 17...

  16. Latitudinal variation in summer monsoon rainfall over Western Ghat of India and its association with global sea surface temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revadekar, J V; Varikoden, Hamza; Murumkar, P K; Ahmed, S A

    2017-09-11

    The Western Ghats (WG) of India are basically north-south oriented mountains having narrow zonal width with a steep rising western face. The summer monsoon winds during June to September passing over the Arabian Sea are obstructed by the WG and thus orographically uplift to produce moderate-to-heavy precipitation over the region. However, it is seen that characteristic features of rainfall distribution during the season vary from north to south. Also its correlation with all-India summer monsoon rainfall increases from south to north. In the present study, an attempt is also made to examine long-term as well as short-term trends and variability in summer monsoon rainfall over different subdivisions of WG using monthly rainfall data for the period 1871-2014. Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka show increase in rainfall from 1871 to 2014 in all individual summer monsoon months. Short-term trend analysis based on 31-year sliding window indicates that the trends are not monotonous, but has epochal behavior. In recent epoch, magnitudes of negative trends are consistently decreasing and have changed its sign to positive during 1985-2014. It has been observed that Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a dominant positive role in rainfall over entire WG in all summer monsoon months, whereas role of Nino regions are asymmetric over WG rainfall. Indian summer monsoon is known for its negative relationship with Nino SST. Negative correlations are also seen for WG rainfall with Nino regions but only during onset and withdrawal phase. During peak monsoon months July and August subdivisions of WG mostly show positive correlation with Nino SST. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Impact of Climate Change on the Characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savita Patwardhan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A high resolution regional climate modeling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climate for Impact Studies, developed by Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK, is applied for Indian subcontinent to assess the impact of climate change on the summer monsoon onset characteristics. The present day simulation (1961–1990 with PRECIS is evaluated for the characteristics of onset over Kerala, southernmost part of India, where the monsoon sets in over Indian landmass. The meteorological parameters like precipitation, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR, and low level winds are analysed to study the monsoon onset over Kerala. The model is able to capture the sudden and sharp increase of rainfall associated with the onset. The rapid built-up of convective activity over the southeastern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal is well represented by the model. PRECIS simulations, under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols, are analysed to study the likely changes in the onset characteristics in future, towards the end of present century (2071–2100. The analysis does not indicate significant difference in the mean onset dates in A2 and B2 scenarios. However, the variability of onset date is likely to be more towards the end of the 21st century especially in A2 scenario.

  18. Southern Indian Ocean SST as a modulator for the progression of Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahi, Namendra Kumar; Rai, Shailendra; Mishra, Nishant

    2018-01-01

    This study explores the possibility of southern Indian Ocean (SIO) sea surface temperature (SST) as a modulator for the early phase of Indian summer monsoon and its possible physical mechanism. A dipole-like structure is obtained from the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis which is similar to an Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) found earlier. A subtropical dipole index (SDI) is defined based on the SST anomaly over the positive and negative poles. The regression map of rainfall over India in the month of June corresponding to the SDI during 1983-2013 shows negative patterns along the Western Ghats and Central India. However, the regression pattern is insignificant during 1952-1982. The multiple linear regression models and partial correlation analysis also indicate that the SDI acts as a dominant factor to influence the rainfall over India in the month of June during 1983-2013. The similar result is also obtained with the help of composite rainfall over the land points of India in the month of June for positive (negative) SDI events. It is also observed that the positive (negative) SDI delays (early) the onset dates of Indian monsoon over Kerala during the time domain of our study. The study is further extended to identify the physical mechanism of this impact, and it is found that the heating (cooling) in the region covering SDI changes the circulation pattern in the SIO and hence impacts the progression of monsoon in India.

  19. Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Dancing with the tunes of the sun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiremath, K. M.; Manjunath, Hegde; Soon, Willie

    2015-02-01

    There is strong statistical evidence that solar activity influences the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. To search for a physical link between the two, we consider the coupled cloud hydrodynamic equations, and derive an equation for the rate of precipitation that is similar to the equation of a forced harmonic oscillator, with cloud and rain water mixing ratios as forcing variables. Those internal forcing variables are parameterized in terms of the combined effect of external forcing as measured by sunspot and coronal hole activities with several well known solar periods (9, 13 and 27 days; 1.3, 5, 11 and 22 years). The equation is then numerically solved and the results show that the variability of the simulated rate of precipitation captures very well the actual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall, yielding vital clues for a physical understanding that has so far eluded analyses based on statistical correlations alone. We also solved the precipitation equation by allowing for the effects of long-term variation of aerosols. We tentatively conclude that the net effects of aerosols variation are small, when compared to the solar factors, in terms of explaining the observed rainfall variability covering the full Indian monsoonal geographical domains.

  20. Asian Winter Monsoons in the Eocene: Evidence from the Aeolian Dust Series of the Xining Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Licht, A.; Adriens, R.; Pullen, A. T.; Kapp, P. A.; Abels, H.; van Cappelle, M.; Vandenberghe, J.; Dupont Nivet, G.

    2014-12-01

    The aeolian dust deposits of the Chinese Loess Plateau are attributed to spring and winter monsoonal storms sweeping clastic material from the deserts of the Asian interior into central China and are reported to begin 25-22 million years (Myr) ago. The beginning of aeolian dust sedimentation has been attributed to the onset of central Asia desertification and winter monsoonal circulation, and are commonly linked to development of high topographic relief associated with the Tibetan-Himalayan orogenic system. However, recent papers suggest that the core of the Tibetan Plateau may have reached significant elevation since the earliest phases of the India-Asia collision 55 Myr ago. Here, we extend the sedimentary record of the Chinese Loess Plateau at its western margin to include the late Eocene - late Oligocene deposits of the Xining Basin, which were deposited between 41 and 25 Myr ago based on detailed magnetostratigraphy. The particle size, shape, and surface microtexture of quartz grains in these deposits display textures indicative of prolonged aeolian transport; grain-size distributions show a bimodal distribution similar to Miocene through Quaternary deposits of the Chinese Loess Plateau. The clay mineralogy of the finer fraction and U/Pb zircon ages of the coarser fraction from Xining Loess sediments sampled along three sections spanning the whole studied interval are also similar to those observed in Quaternary and Neogene aeolian deposits of the Chinese Loess Plateau and thus suggest similar sources located in central China. However, slight differences in Eocene U/Pb zircon ages, such as the lack of Cenozoic ages or the scarcity of zircons older than 2000 Myr, suggest that the Tibetan Plateau may have contributed little to the aeolian dust deposition, in favor of sources located further north and west (Kunlun and Tian Shan Ranges). The Xining deposits are thus the first direct evidence that winter monsoonal winds were active 15 Myr earlier than previously

  1. Role of aerosols on the Indian Summer Monsoon variability, as simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cagnazzo, Chiara; Biondi, Riccardo; D'Errico, Miriam; Cherchi, Annalisa; Fierli, Federico; Lau, William K. M.

    2016-04-01

    Recent observational and modeling analyses have explored the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. By using global scale climate model simulations, we show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April-May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low-level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated-heat-pump (EHP) mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface that may also be amplified through solar dimming (SD) by more cloudiness and aerosol loading with subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall over India. We extend this analyses to a subset of CMIP5 climate model simulations. Our results suggest that 1) absorbing aerosols, by influencing the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon with the discussed time-lag, may act as a source of predictability for the Indian Summer Monsoon and 2) if the EHP and SD effects are operating also in a number of state-of-the-art climate models, their inclusion could potentially improve seasonal forecasts.

  2. Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

    2018-02-01

    The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.

  3. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subimal Ghosh

    Full Text Available India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  4. Asian monsoon modulation of nonsteady state diagenesis in hemipelagic marine sediments offshore of Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Liao; Bolton, Clara T.; Dekkers, Mark J.; Hayashida, Akira; Heslop, David; Krijgsman, Wout; Kodama, Kazuto; Paterson, Greig A.; Roberts, Andrew P.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Yamamoto, Yuhji; Zhao, Xiang

    2016-11-01

    We have identified millennial-scale variations in magnetic mineral diagenesis from Pacific Ocean sediments offshore of Japan that we correlate with changes in organic carbon burial that were likely driven by Asian monsoon fluctuations. The correlation was determined by identifying offsets between the positions of fossil diagenetic fronts and climatically induced variations in organic carbon burial inferred from magnetic and geochemical analyses. Episodes of intense monsoon activity and attendant sediment magnetic mineral diagenesis also appear to correlate with Heinrich events, which supports the existence of climatic telecommunications between Asia and the North Atlantic region. Several lines of evidence support our conclusions: (1) fluctuations in down-core magnetic properties and diagenetic pyrite precipitation are approximately coeval; (2) localized stratigraphic intervals with relatively stronger magnetic mineral dissolution are linked to enhanced sedimentary organic carbon contents that gave rise to nonsteady state diagenesis; (3) down-core variations in elemental S content provide a proxy for nonsteady state diagenesis that correlate with key records of Asian monsoon variations; and (4) relict titanomagnetite that is preserved as inclusions within silicate particles, rather than secondary authigenic phases (e.g., greigite), dominates the strongly diagenetically altered sediment intervals and are protected against sulfidic dissolution. We suggest that such millennial-scale environmental modulation of nonsteady state diagenesis (that creates a temporal diagenetic filter and relict magnetic mineral signatures) is likely to be common in organic-rich hemipelagic sedimentary settings with rapidly varying depositional conditions. Our work also demonstrates the usefulness of magnetic mineral inclusions for recording important environmental magnetic signals.

  5. Assessment of CORDEX-SA experiments in representing precipitation climatology of summer monsoon over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Maharana, P.

    2017-09-01

    The present work assesses the performance of 11 regional climate simulations in representing the precipitation patterns of summer monsoon over India for the period 1970-2005. These simulations have been carried out under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. The regional climate models (RCMs) have been inter-compared as well as evaluated against the observation to identify the common weaknesses and differences between them. For this, a number of statistical analysis has been carried out to compare the model precipitation field with the corresponding observation. Model uncertainty has been also evaluated through bias studies and analysis of the spread in the ensemble mean (hereafter, ensemble). The models which perform better than the rest are identified and studied to look for any improvement in the ensemble performance. These better performing experiments (best RCM experiments) are further assessed over the monsoon core region (MCR) of India. This has been done to understand how well the models perform in a spatially homogeneous zone of precipitation which is considered to be a representative region of Indian summer monsoon characteristics. Finally, an additional analysis has been done to quantify the skill of models based on two different metrics—performance and convergence including a combination of the two. The experiment with regional model RegCM4 forced with the global model GFDL-ESM2M shows the highest combined mean skill in capturing the seasonal mean precipitation. In general, a significant dry bias is found over a larger part of India in all the experiments which seems most pronounced over the central Indian region. Ensemble on an average tends to outperform many of the individual experiments with bias of smaller magnitude and an improved spatial correlation compared with the observation. Experiments which perform better over India improve the results but only slightly in terms of agreement among experiments

  6. On the statistical aspects of sunspot number time series and its association with the summer-monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Chattopadhyay, Goutami

    The present paper reports studies on the association between the mean annual sunspot numbers and the summer monsoon rainfall over India. The cross correlations have been studied. After Box-Cox transformation, the time spectral analysis has been executed and it has been found that both of the time series have an important spectrum at the fifth harmonic. An artificial neural network (ANN) model has been developed on the data series averaged continuously by five years and the neural network could establish a predictor-predict and relationship between the sunspot numbers and the mean yearly summer monsoon rainfall over India.

  7. Indian Monsoon Depression: Climatology and Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Huang, Wan-Ru (Judy)

    2012-03-09

    The monsoon climate is traditionally characterized by large seasonal rainfall and reversal of wind direction (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Most importantly this rainfall is the major source of fresh water to various human activities such as agriculture. The Indian subcontinent resides at the core of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon system, with the monsoon trough extended from northern India across Indochina to the Western Tropical Pacific (WTP). Large fraction of annual rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon season, i.e., June - August with two distinct maxima. One is located over the Bay of Bengal with rainfall extending northwestward into eastern and central India, and the other along the west coast of India where the lower level moist wind meets the Western Ghat Mountains (Saha and Bavardeckar 1976). The rest of the Indian subcontinent receives relatively less rainfall. Various weather systems such as tropical cyclones and weak disturbances contribute to monsoon rainfall (Ramage 1971). Among these systems, the most efficient rain-producing system is known as the Indian monsoon depression (hereafter MD). This MD is critical for monsoon rainfall because: (i) it occurs about six times during each summer monsoon season, (ii) it propagates deeply into the continent and produces large amounts of rainfall along its track, and (iii) about half of the monsoon rainfall is contributed to by the MDs (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Therefore, understanding various properties of the MD is a key towards comprehending the veracity of the Indian summer monsoon and especially its hydrological process.

  8. The Indian Summer Monsoon onset revisited: new approach based on the analysis of historical wind observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordoñez, Paulina; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Vega, Inmaculada; Gómez, Francisco de Paula

    2016-04-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon onset is one of the meteorological events most anticipated in the world. Due to its relevance for the population, the India Meteorological Department has dated the onset over the southern tip of the Indian Peninsula (Kerala) since 1901. The traditional method to date the onset was based in the judgment of skilled meteorologist and because of this, the method was considered subjective and not adequate for the study of long-term changes in the onset. A new method for determining the monsoon onset based solely on objective criteria has been in use since 2006. Unfortunately, the new method relies -among other variables- on OLR measurements. This requirement impedes the construction of an objective onset series before the satellite era. An alternative approach to establish the onset by objective methods is the use of the wind field. During the last decade, some works have demonstrated that the changes in the wind direction in some areas of the Indian Ocean can be used to determine the monsoon onset rather precisely. However, this method requires precise wind observations over a large oceanic area which has limited the periods covered for such kind of indices to those of the reanalysis products. In this work we present a new approach to track the Indian monsoon onset based solely on historical wind direction measurements taken onboard ships. Our new series provides an objective record of the onset since the last decade of the 19th century and perhaps more importantly, it can incorporate any new historical wind record not yet known in order to extend the series length. The new series captures quite precisely the rapid precipitation increase associated to the monsoon onset, correlates well with previous approaches and it is robust against anomalous (bogus) onsets. Although no significant trends in the onset date were detected, a tendency to later than average onsets during the 1900-1925 and 1970-1990 periods and earlier than average onsets between

  9. Meso-scale distribution of summer monsoon rainfall near the Western Ghats (India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, S. K.; Asnani, G. C.

    2000-04-01

    The spatial distribution of southwest monsoon rainfall is studied over Maharashtra State (India), which includes part of the well-known Western Ghats mountain range, near its western boundary, running almost from north to south, perpendicular to the summer monsoon current in the lower troposphere. Meso-scale analysis of daily rainfall is performed for Maharashtra State, including the Western Ghats, for the two mid-monsoon months of July and August, during the 10-year period of 1971-1980. Strong and weak monsoon days were identified for the 5-year period of 1976-1980. The meso-scale pattern of average daily rainfall is obtained separately for strong and for weak monsoon conditions.All these average patterns show the following features: (i) the rainfall increases rapidly from the Arabian Sea coast close to the line of maximum height of the Western Ghats; (ii) there are two rainfall maxima corresponding to the two mountain peaks parallel to the coast line; (iii) between the two mountain peaks, there is a valley which is narrow at the western end (upwind end), broadening towards the east (on the downwind side). Ground contour height of the valley rises eastwards and ends as a part of the Deccan Plateau east of the Ghats. Here the valley opens out like a funnel with higher mountains flanking its two sides. In the valley, the rainfall increases from the coast up to the line of maximum height of the Ghats, and then decreases eastwards towards the plateau. The rainfall isopleths also take a funnel-shaped configuration. An interesting feature is that near the wider section of the valley funnel, there is a rainfall minimum and then the rainfall increases further eastwards on the downwind side. This feature of rainfall minimum is somewhat similar to the rainfall minimum reported by Asnani and Kinuthia (personal communication); Asnani (Asnani GC. 1993. Tropical Meteorology, Vol. I. Prof. G.C. Asnani: Pune, India; 603) attributed the rainfall minimum to the Bernoulli effect. A

  10. Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2017-09-01

    The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and

  11. Role of aerosols in modulating cloud properties during active-break cycle of Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, A.; Chakraborty, A.; Venugopal, V.

    2017-09-01

    In this study, the weather research and forecast model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem), is used to understand the impact of aerosol-cloud interaction during the active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon. Two sets of simulations are performed, one with a fixed aerosol concentration ( ConstantAero) and the other with an observation-based prescription of the rate of change of aerosol concentration as a function of precipitation ( VaryingAero). This prescription is derived based on satellite-retrieved daily rainrate and concurrent observations of aerosol optical depth from aerosol robotic network. The proposed modification is necessitated by the lack of realistic emission estimates over the Indian region as well as the presence of inherent biases in monsoon simulation in WRF-Chem. In the VaryingAero simulation, unlike in the ConstantAero run, we find that the break-to-active monsoon phase has more cloud liquid water (CLW) and less rain efficiency than in the active-to-break phase. This is primarily due to the indirect effect of increased aerosol loading in the break phase. This result is in accordance with the observed behaviour of CLW estimtes from microwave imager (TRMM 2A12) and radar reflectivity (TRMM precipitation radar). We also find that the proposed interactive aerosol loading results in higher spatial variability in CLW and enhances the likelihood of increased cloud cover via formation of larger clouds. The modification also alters the diurnal cycle of clouds in break and break-to-active phases as compared to other phases due to aerosol loading, with a stronger diurnal cycle of upper level clouds in these phases in the VaryingAero model as compared to ConstantAero model.

  12. Prediction of Monthly Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Global Climate Models Through Artificial Neural Network Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Archana; Singh, Gurjeet; Mohanty, U. C.

    2018-01-01

    The monthly prediction of summer monsoon rainfall is very challenging because of its complex and chaotic nature. In this study, a non-linear technique known as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been employed on the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to bring out the vagaries inherent in monthly rainfall prediction. The GCMs that are considered in the study are from the International Research Institute (IRI) (2-tier CCM3v6) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (Coupled-CFSv2). The ANN technique is applied on different ensemble members of the individual GCMs to obtain monthly scale prediction over India as a whole and over its spatial grid points. In the present study, a double-cross-validation and simple randomization technique was used to avoid the over-fitting during training process of the ANN model. The performance of the ANN-predicted rainfall from GCMs is judged by analysing the absolute error, box plots, percentile and difference in linear error in probability space. Results suggest that there is significant improvement in prediction skill of these GCMs after applying the ANN technique. The performance analysis reveals that the ANN model is able to capture the year to year variations in monsoon months with fairly good accuracy in extreme years as well. ANN model is also able to simulate the correct signs of rainfall anomalies over different spatial points of the Indian domain.

  13. Prediction of Monthly Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Global Climate Models Through Artificial Neural Network Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Archana; Singh, Gurjeet; Mohanty, U. C.

    2017-08-01

    The monthly prediction of summer monsoon rainfall is very challenging because of its complex and chaotic nature. In this study, a non-linear technique known as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been employed on the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to bring out the vagaries inherent in monthly rainfall prediction. The GCMs that are considered in the study are from the International Research Institute (IRI) (2-tier CCM3v6) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (Coupled-CFSv2). The ANN technique is applied on different ensemble members of the individual GCMs to obtain monthly scale prediction over India as a whole and over its spatial grid points. In the present study, a double-cross-validation and simple randomization technique was used to avoid the over-fitting during training process of the ANN model. The performance of the ANN-predicted rainfall from GCMs is judged by analysing the absolute error, box plots, percentile and difference in linear error in probability space. Results suggest that there is significant improvement in prediction skill of these GCMs after applying the ANN technique. The performance analysis reveals that the ANN model is able to capture the year to year variations in monsoon months with fairly good accuracy in extreme years as well. ANN model is also able to simulate the correct signs of rainfall anomalies over different spatial points of the Indian domain.

  14. Evaluation of NCEP TIGGE short-range forecast for Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirkey, Snehlata; Mukhopadhyay, P.

    2017-08-01

    This study focuses on the short-range prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISOs) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) data from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive. The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), which plays an important role in the socio-economic growth of the country, is highly variable and is mostly governed by the MISOs. In addition to this, deterministic forecasts of ISMR are not very reliable. Hence, a probabilistic approach at daily scale is required. Keeping this in mind, the present analysis is done by using daily forecast data for up to 7-day lead time and compared with observations. The analysis shows that the ensemble forecast well captures the variability as compared to observations even up to 7 days. The spatial characteristics and the northward propagation of MISO are observed thoroughly in the EPS. The evolution of dynamical and thermodynamical parameters such as specific humidity, moist static energy, moisture divergence, and vorticity is also captured well but show deviation from the observation from 96 h lead time onwards. The tropospheric temperature forecast captures the observed gradient but with certain bias in magnitude whereas the wind shear is simulated quite well both in pattern and magnitude. These analyses bring out the biases in TIGGE EPS forecast and also point out the possible moist processes which needs to be improved.

  15. Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Jangid, Buddhi Prakash

    2017-02-24

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

  16. The Glacial-Interglacial summer monsoon recorded in southwest Sulawesi speleothems: Evidence for sea level thresholds driving tropical monsoon strength

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimbrough, A. K.; Gagan, M. K.; Dunbar, G. B.; Krause, C.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Hantoro, W. S.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Shen, C. C.; Sun, H.; Cai, B.; Rifai, H.

    2016-12-01

    Southwest Sulawesi lies within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), at the center of atmospheric convection for two of the largest circulation cells on the planet, the meridional Hadley Cell and zonal Indo-Pacific Walker Circulation. Due to the geographic coincidence of these circulation cells, southwest Sulawesi serves as a hotspot for changes in tropical Pacific climate variability and Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) strength over glacial-interglacial (G-I) timescales. The work presented here spans 386 - 127 ky BP, including glacial terminations IV ( 340 ky BP) and both phases of TIII (TIII 248 ky BP and TIIIa 217 ky BP). This record, along with previous work from southwest Sulawesi spanning the last 40 kyr, reveals coherent climatic features over three complete G-I cycles. The multi-stalagmite Sulawesi speleothem δ18O record demonstrates that on G-I timescales, the strength of the AISM is most sensitive to changes in sea level and its impact on the regional distribution of land and shallow ocean. Stalagmite δ18O and trace element (Mg/Ca) data indicate a rapid increase in rainfall at glacial terminations and wet interglacials. TIV, TIII, TIIIa, and TI are each characterized by an abrupt 3‰ decrease in δ18O that coincides with sea level rise and flooding of the Sunda and Sahul shelves. Strong evidence for a sea level (flooding/exposure) threshold is found throughout the southwest Sulawesi record. This is most clearly demonstrated over the period 230 - 212 ky BP (MIS 7d-7c), when a sea level fall to only -80 to -60 m for 10 kyr results in a weakened AISM and glacial conditions, followed by a full termination. Taken together, both glaciations and glacial terminations imply a sea level threshold driving the AISM between two primary levels of intensity (`interglacial' & `glacial'). These massive, sea-level driven shifts in AISM strength are superimposed on precession-scale variability associated with boreal fall insolation at the equator, indicating

  17. Quaternary ecological responses and impacts of the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon at Nam Co, Southern Tibetan Plateau

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Günther, F.; Witt, R.; Schouten, Stefan|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/137124929; Mausbacher, R.; Daut, G.; Zhu, Liping; Xu, B.; Yao, T.; Gleixner, G.

    The transition from the Last Glacial to the current Interglacial, the Holocene, represents an important period with climatic and environmental changes impacting ecosystems. In this study, we examined the interplay between the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon (IOSM) and the Westerlies at lake Nam Co,

  18. Interdecadal variation of the West African summer monsoon during 1979-2010 and associated variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Huanlian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Climate Change Research Center, Beijing (China); Wang, Huijun [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Climate Change Research Center, Beijing (China); Yin, Yizhou [Tsinghua University, Center for Earth System Science, Beijing (China)

    2012-12-15

    This paper addresses the interdecadal variation of the West African summer monsoon (WASM) along with its background of atmospheric circulation and possible physical mechanism over the past 32 years (1979-2010). It is indicated that the WASM starts to strengthen from 1998 as the rainfall begins to increase over western West Africa on the whole, which shows a new interdecadal variation. In this interdecadal variation, the strengthened ascending motion corresponding to enhanced divergence (convergence) movement on the upper (lower) troposphere is prone to develop the local circulation of the monsoon. Moreover, the strengthened southwestern (eastern) wind on the lower (upper) level leads to more moisture from the Atlantic and the Gulf of Guinea transported to the West African continent. In addition, the summer subtropical high over the north Atlantic and western West Africa is strong and northward, and the tropical east wind is also strong. Statistically, the weaker (stronger) the spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is, the stronger (weaker) the tropical easterly is, and then the WASM is also stronger. But the effect of the NAO on the decadal variation of the WASM is not so significant from the north Atlantic anomaly sensitivity simulation with a single model. This is also an indication that the relationship between the WASM and NAO is complicated in an interdecadal time scale and is needed further study. In terms of sea surface temperature (SST) variation, the tendency is toward warming in the subtropical north Pacific, the south Pacific and north Atlantic. Numerical simulation experiments and data analysis show that the SST variation in the north Pacific plays an important role in the latest interdecadal strengthening of the WASM during the past 32 years, while the influences of the south Pacific and the north Atlantic SST anomalies are not so significant to the associated atmospheric circulation changes. (orig.)

  19. Predictability and prediction of Indian summer monsoon by CFSv2: implication of the initial shock effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Huang, Bohua; Marx, L.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

    2018-01-01

    This study evaluates the seasonal predictability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall using the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), the current operational forecast model for subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). From a 50-year CFSv2 simulation, 21 wet, dry and normal ISM cases are chosen for a set of seasonal "predictions" with initial states in each month from January to May to conduct predictability experiments. For each prediction, a five-member ensemble is generated with perturbed atmospheric initial states and all predictions are integrated to the end of September. Based on the measures of correlation and root mean square error, the prediction skill decreases with lead month, with the initial states with the shortest lead (May initial states) generally showing the highest skill for predicting the summer mean (June to September; JJAS) rainfall, zonal wind at 850 hPa and sea surface temperature over the ISM region in the perfect model scenario. These predictability experiments are used to understand the finding reported by some recent studies that the NCEP CFSv2 seasonal retrospective forecasts generally have higher skill in predicting the ISM rainfall anomalies from February initial states than from May ones. Comparing the May climatologies generated by the February and May initialized CFSv2 retrospective forecasts, it is found that the latter shows larger bias over the Arabian Sea, with stronger monsoon winds, precipitation and surface latent heat flux. Although the atmospheric bias diminishes quickly after May, an accompanying cold bias persists in the Arabian Sea for several months. It is argued that a similar phenomenon does not occur in the predictability experiments in the perfect model scenario, because the initial shock is negligible in these experiments by design. Therefore, it is possible that the stronger model bias and initial shock in the May CFSv2 retrospective forecasts

  20. Remote response of the East Asian winter monsoon to tropical forcing related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakai, Kumi; Kawamura, Ryuichi

    2009-03-01

    The mechanism of the East Asian winter monsoon variability in response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related tropical forcing is investigated using Japanese long-term reanalysis project data, additionally aided by the Japan Meteorological Agency climate data assimilation system. There are at least two different responses, zonally symmetric and asymmetric, of the Asian jet over South Asia to the ENSO-related tropical convective forcing during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The zonally symmetric response, induced by zonally extended anomalous convection from the Philippine Sea through southern India and Sri Lanka, is pronounced at the mature phase of ENSO. The zonally asymmetric response is intimately associated with anomalous convection localized in the vicinity of the Philippine and South China seas, accompanied by an anomalous Walker circulation cell between the Maritime Continent and tropical Indian Ocean. When this asymmetric response is prominent, ENSO-related anomalous convection can give rise to a change in the East Asian winter monsoon system through stationary Rossby wave propagation along the South Asian waveguide. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-related extratropical forcing is also a crucial factor and contributes not only to the downstream development of subpolar teleconnections across northern Eurasia but also to the reinforcement of the zonally asymmetric pattern of the Asian jet over South Asia, resulting in a significant effect on the East Asian winter monsoon circulation. A combination of the ENSO- and NAO-related forcing plays a vital role in triggering the occurrence of extraordinary anomalous monsoon circulations, such as extremely heavy snowfall in the 2005/2006 winter in Japan.

  1. The role of East Asian monsoon system in shaping population divergence and dynamics of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Hengxia; Yan, Xia; Shi, Yong; Qian, Chaoju; Li, Zhonghu; Zhang, Wen; Wang, Lirong; Li, Yi; Li, Xiaoze; Chen, Guoxiong; Li, Xinrong; Nevo, Eviatar; Ma, Xiao-Fei

    2015-10-29

    Both of the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the development of East Asian monsoon system (EAMS) could have comprehensively impacted the formation and evolution of Arid Central Asia (ACA). To understand how desert plants endemic to ACA responded to these two factors, we profiled the historical population dynamics and distribution range shift of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica (Tamaricaceae) based on species wide investigation of sequence variation of chloroplast DNA and nuclear ribosomal ITS. Phylogenetic analysis uncovered a deep divergence occurring at ca. 2.96 Mya between the western and eastern lineages of R. soongarica, and ecological niche modeling analysis strongly supported that the monsoonal climate could have fragmented its habitats in both glacial and interglacial periods and impelled its intraspecific divergence. Additionally, the population from the east monsoonal zone expanded rapidly, suggesting that the local monsoonal climate significantly impacted its population dynamics. The isolation by distance tests supported strong maternal gene flow along the direction of the East Asian winter monsoon, whose intensification induced the genetic admixture along the latitudinal populations of R. soongarica. Our results presented a new case that the development of EAMS had prominently impacted the intraspecific divergence and population dynamics of this desert plant.

  2. Relationship of the South Asian Monsoon and Regional Drought with Distinct Equatorial Pacific SST Patterns on Interannual and Decadal Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, M.; Ummenhofer, C.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

    2014-12-01

    The Asian monsoon system influences the lives of over 60% of the planet's population, with widespread socioeconomic effects resulting from weakening or failure of monsoon rains. Spatially broad and temporally extended drought episodes have been known to dramatically influence human history, including the Strange Parallels Drought in the mid-18th century. Here, we explore the dynamics of sustained monsoon failure using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas - a high-resolution network of hydro-climatically sensitive tree-ring records - and a 1300-year pre-industrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Spatial drought patterns in the instrumental and model-based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during years with extremely weakened South Asian monsoon are similar to those reconstructed during the Strange Parallels Drought in the MADA. We further explore how the large-scale Indo-Pacific climate during weakened South Asian monsoon differs between interannual and decadal timescales. The Strange Parallels Drought pattern is observed during March-April-May primarily over Southeast Asia, with decreased precipitation and reduced moisture fluxes, while anomalies in June-July-August are confined to the Indian subcontinent during both individual and decadal events. Individual years with anomalous drying exhibit canonical El Niño conditions over the eastern equatorial Pacific and associated shifts in the Walker circulation, while decadal events appear to be related to anomalous warming around the dateline in the equatorial Pacific, typical of El Niño Modoki events. The results suggest different dynamical processes influence drought at different time scales through distinct remote ocean influences.

  3. Transport of aerosols into the UTLS and their impact on the Asian monsoon region as seen in a global model simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Fadnavis

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available An eight-member ensemble of ECHAM5-HAMMOZ simulations for a boreal summer season is analysed to study the transport of aerosols in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM. The simulations show persistent maxima in black carbon, organic carbon, sulfate, and mineral dust aerosols within the anticyclone in the UTLS throughout the ASM (period from July to September, when convective activity over the Indian subcontinent is highest, indicating that boundary layer aerosol pollution is the source of this UTLS aerosol layer. The simulations identify deep convection and the associated heat-driven circulation over the southern flanks of the Himalayas as the dominant transport pathway of aerosols and water vapour into the tropical tropopause layer (TTL. Comparison of model simulations with and without aerosols indicates that anthropogenic aerosols are central to the formation of this transport pathway. Aerosols act to increase cloud ice, water vapour, and temperature in the model UTLS. Evidence of ASM transport of aerosols into the stratosphere is also found, in agreement with aerosol extinction measurements from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II. As suggested by the observations, aerosols are transported into the Southern Hemisphere around the tropical tropopause by large-scale mixing processes. Aerosol-induced circulation changes also include a weakening of the main branch of the Hadley circulation and a reduction of monsoon precipitation over India.

  4. Mechanism of the Asymmetric Monsoon Transition as Simulated in an AGCM

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Z; Chang, C.-P.

    2007-01-01

    J. Climate, 1829-1836. (manuscript) Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations are carried out to test a hypothesis (Chang et al. 2005) for the asymmetric monsoon transition in which the maximum convection marches gradually from the Asian summer monsoon to the Asian winter monsoon during boreal fall but experiences a sudden transition in the reverse during boreal spring. In the control run, the AGCM is driven by the climatological mean sea-surface temperature (...

  5. Numerical Simulation of the Direct Radiative Effects of Dust Aerosol on the East Asian Winter Monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Sun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Variations of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM induced by dust aerosol are studied by using a regional climate model (RegCM4/Dust. Dust coupled and uncoupled experiments are carried out for the past decade (2000–2009. The coupled RegCM4 captures three centers of dust mixing ratio (DMR located in the Taklamakan Desert, western Inner Mongolia, and northern Xinjiang, respectively, with maximum values greater than 500 µg kg−1 in winter. The surface total radiation change induced by dust is negative, and its central value of −8 W m−2 results in surface temperature cooling by 1.5°C in winter. Dust induced radiation change at the top of the atmosphere (TOA is also negative in Northern China, except over the Tibetan Plateau (TP, and up to −5 W m−2 in Central China. Dust cooling effects increase the sea level pressure (SLP gradient between land and ocean, the cold surge frequency, and the East Asian jet stream (EAJ intensity and then enhance the EAWM. The dry and cold wind pervade most areas of East Asia, suppressing large-scale precipitation and eventually leading to a rainfall decrease of about 10–30% in Northern China and the middle Yangtze River Valley.

  6. Role of low level flow on the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent during two contrasting monsoon years

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Swapna, P.; RameshKumar, M.R.

    . In the present study, we look into the role of the low level flow during two contrasting monsoon years, viz., 1987 (deficit) and 1988 (excess) using the daily data from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis and European Centre...

  7. Application of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling to East Asian Summer Precipitation for Finely Resolved Datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoo-Bin Yhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Various downscaling approaches have been developed to overcome the limitation of the coarse spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs. Such techniques can be grouped into two approaches of dynamical and statistical downscaling. In this study, we investigated the performances of different downscaling methods, focusing on East Asian summer monsoon precipitation to obtain more finely resolved and value added datasets. The dynamical downscaling was conducted by the Regional Model Program (RMP of the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs, while the statistical downscaling was performed through coupled pattern-based simple linear regression. The dynamical downscaling resulted in a better representation of the spatial distribution and long-term trend than the GCM produced; however, it tended to overestimate precipitation over East Asia. In contrast, the application of the statistical downscaling resulted in a bias in the amount of precipitation, due to low variance that is inherent in regression-based downscaling. A combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling produced the best results in time and space. This study provides a guideline for determining the most effective and robust downscaling method in the hydrometeorological applications, which are quite sensitive to the accuracy of downscaled precipitation.

  8. Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part I: observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, S. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalunya (Spain); Rodo, X. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalunya (Spain); Institut Catala de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona (Spain); Song, Y. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cash, B.A. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is marked by the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) with preferred 10-20-day and 30-50-day bands. On the basis of pentad Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis Precipitation and daily sea level pressure and winds at 850 hPa derived from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast reanalysis, we present the structure and evolution of the ISOs linked to the ISMR variations over the WG and the BoB and the associated anomalies of the atmospheric circulation using the approaches of wavelet analysis, bandpass filtering and composite analysis. This study reveals that the activities of both the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) contribute strongly to the structure and propagation of the ISOs on intraseasonal time scales. Northward development and propagation of the ITCZ plays a critical role in the northward-propagating ISOs, but not in the westward-propagating BoB 10-20-day ISOs. The latter ISOs may be linked, instead, to the activity of synoptic-scale weather systems to the east over the western tropical Pacific. The enhanced ITCZ in the tropical Indian Ocean plays a strong role in the sudden strengthening of the WPSH during the transition from the break to active phase of the 30-50-day ISOs. We find that the strong WPSH in the Asian summer monsoon season, with generally northward advance and eastward withdrawal, promotes the formation of a northwest to southeast tilted anomalous rainfall belt over the East Asian tropical summer monsoon region and the western tropical Pacific in the 30-50-day low-frequency band. Positive (Negative) elongated rainfall anomalies with an unbroken northwest-southeast tilt, strong easterly (westerly) anomalies in the tropical Pacific, and northward advance and eastward movement of strong (weak) WPSH are favorable for maintaining the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the

  9. Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Shujie [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Rodo, Xavier [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Catala de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Song, Yongjia [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cash, Benjamin A. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2012-09-15

    We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10-20-day and 30-50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30-50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10-20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10-20-day ISOs, the air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not

  10. Aerosol characteristics in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region during successive and contrasting Indian summer monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, D.; Misra, A.; Kanawade, V. P.; Pathak, V.; Tiwari, S.; Devara, P. C. S.

    2018-01-01

    Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO)-derived aerosol vertical profiles were studied in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region during two successive and contrasting monsoon years (2008-2009). An enhanced aerosol layer was observed in the UTLS between 15 and 19 km altitude, in the vicinity of tropopause during both years. However, the optical characteristics of aerosol layers were found to be dissimilar during the two contrasting consecutive summer monsoon seasons. While the depolarization ratio of enhanced aerosol layer (exceeding 0.2) during both years suggested anisotropic nature of particles, the aerosol backscatter coefficient was observed to be more intensified with a sharp peak during the active monsoon year (2008) whereas it was relatively broader with lower magnitude during a drought year (2009). The enhanced backscatter coefficient in the UTLS was found to be closely associated with the variability in tropopause height and convection during both years, which is more pronounced during the active monsoon year as compared to a drought year. Deep convection over the ISM region may inject boundary layer aerosols into the upper troposphere as evidenced from the analysis of the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR). Our results also showed an enhanced integrated backscatter coefficient (IBC) of about 30%, which is associated with a decrease in OLR of about 7% during the active monsoon year as compared to drought year. These findings were further corroborated using NCEP-NCAR vertical velocity and HYSPLIT air-mass backward trajectory analyses.

  11. The role of East Asian monsoon system in shaping population divergence and dynamics of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica

    OpenAIRE

    Hengxia Yin; Xia Yan; Yong Shi; Chaoju Qian; Zhonghu Li; Wen Zhang; Lirong Wang; Yi Li; Xiaoze Li; Guoxiong Chen; Xinrong Li; Eviatar Nevo; Xiao-Fei Ma

    2015-01-01

    Both of the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the development of East Asian monsoon system (EAMS) could have comprehensively impacted the formation and evolution of Arid Central Asia (ACA). To understand how desert plants endemic to ACA responded to these two factors, we profiled the historical population dynamics and distribution range shift of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica (Tamaricaceae) based on species wide investigation of sequence variation of chloroplast DNA ...

  12. Quasi-biweekly oscillations of the South Asian monsoon and its co-evolution in the upper and lower troposphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Sebastián; Webster, Peter J.; Toma, Violeta; Chang, Hai-Ru

    2017-11-01

    The Upper Tropospheric Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation (UQBW) of the South Asian monsoon is studied using the potential vorticity field on the 370 K isentrope. The UQBW is shown to be a common occurrence in the upper troposphere during the monsoon, and its typical evolution is described. We suggest that the UQBW is a phenomenon of both the middle and tropical latitudes, owing its existence to the presence of the planetary-scale upper-tropospheric monsoon anticyclone. The UQBW is first identified as Rossby waves originating in the northern flank of the monsoon anticyclone. These Rossby waves break when reaching the Pacific Ocean, and their associated cyclonic PV anomalies move southward to the east of Asia and then westward across the Indian Ocean and Africa advected by the monsoon anticyclone. A strong correlation, or co-evolution, between the UQBW and quasi-biweekly oscillations in the lower troposphere (QBW) is also found. In particular, analysis of vertically-integrated horizontal moisture transport, 850 hPa geopotential, and outgoing long-wave radiation show that the UQBW is usually observed at the same time as, and co-evolves with, the lower tropospheric QBW over South Asia. We discuss the nature of the UQBW, and its possible physical link with the QBW.

  13. Assessment of two versions of regional climate model in simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon over South Asia CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Panda, S. K.; Saraswat, Vaishali; Dash, S. K.

    2017-07-01

    This study assess the performance of two versions of Regional Climate Model (RegCM) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon over South Asia for the period 1998 to 2003 with an aim of conducting future climate change simulations. Two sets of experiments were carried out with two different versions of RegCM (viz. RegCM4.2 and RegCM4.3) with the lateral boundary forcings provided from European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis (ERA-interim) at 50 km horizontal resolution. The major updates in RegCM4.3 in comparison to the older version RegCM4.2 are the inclusion of measured solar irradiance in place of hardcoded solar constant and additional layers in the stratosphere. The analysis shows that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, moisture flux and surface net downward shortwave flux are better represented in RegCM4.3 than that in the RegCM4.2 simulations. Excessive moisture flux in the RegCM4.2 simulation over the northern Arabian Sea and Peninsular India resulted in an overestimation of rainfall over the Western Ghats, Peninsular region as a result of which the all India rainfall has been overestimated. RegCM4.3 has performed well over India as a whole as well as its four rainfall homogenous zones in reproducing the mean monsoon rainfall and inter-annual variation of rainfall. Further, the monsoon onset, low-level Somali Jet and the upper level tropical easterly jet are better represented in the RegCM4.3 than RegCM4.2. Thus, RegCM4.3 has performed better in simulating the mean summer monsoon circulation over the South Asia. Hence, RegCM4.3 may be used to study the future climate change over the South Asia.

  14. Late Miocene-Pliocene Asian monsoon intensification linked to Antarctic ice-sheet growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ao, H.; Roberts, A.P.; Dekkers, M.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073463744; Liu, X.; Rohling, E.J.; Shi, Z.; An, Z.; Zhao, X.

    2016-01-01

    Environmental conditions in one of Earth's most densely populated regions, East Asia, are dominated by the monsoon. While Quaternary monsoon variability is reasonably well understood, pre-Quaternary monsoon variability and dynamics remain enigmatic. In particular, little is known about potential

  15. Has the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon improved since the late 1970s?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yi; Fan, Ke; Tian, Baoqiang

    2016-12-01

    Based on the evaluation of state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) from the ENSEMBLES (Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts) and DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction) projects, it is found that the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) has improved since the late 1970s. These CGCMs show better skills in prediction of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation within the SCSSM domain during 1979-2005 than that during 1960-1978. Possible reasons for this improvement are investigated. First, the relationship between the SSTs over the tropical Pacific, North Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and SCSSM has intensified since the late 1970s. Meanwhile, the SCSSM-related SSTs, with their larger amplitude of interannual variability, have been better predicted. Moreover, the larger amplitude of the interannual variability of the SCSSM and improved initializations for CGCMs after the late 1970s contribute to the better prediction of the SCSSM. In addition, considering that the CGCMs have certain limitations in SCSSM rainfall prediction, we applied the year-to-year increment approach to these CGCMs from the DEMETER and ENSEMBLES projects to improve the prediction of SCSSM rainfall before and after the late 1970s.

  16. Influence of sea surface temperature on the intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roxy, Mathew [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Centre for Climate Change Research, Pune (India); Hokkaido University, Faculty of Environmental Earth Science and Graduate School of Environmental Science, Sapporo, Hokkaido (Japan); Tanimoto, Youichi [Hokkaido University, Faculty of Environmental Earth Science and Graduate School of Environmental Science, Sapporo, Hokkaido (Japan); JAMSTEC, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan)

    2012-09-15

    The objective of this study is to examine, based on recently available high resolution satellite and observational data, the evolution and role of sea surface temperature (SST) in influencing the intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SM). The study focuses on the 30-60 day timescale when the northward propagating anomalies are dominant over the SCS. Composite analysis of the SST maximum events during SCS SM shows that increased SST anomalies over the SCS are significantly influenced by the downward shortwave radiation flux anomalies, with the suppressed surface latent heat flux anomalies supplementing to it. A thermal damping of the positive SST anomalies induces positive upward heat fluxes, which then destabilize the lower atmosphere between 1,000 and 700 hPa. The positive SST anomalies lead the positive precipitation anomalies over the SCS by 10 days, with a significant correlation (r = 0.44) between the SST-precipitation anomalies. The new findings here indicate an ocean-to-atmosphere effect over the SCS, where underlying SST anomalies tend to form a favorable condition for convective activity and sustain enhanced precipitation during the SCS SM. It is also argued, based on our observations, that the negative sea level pressure anomalies induced by the positive SST anomalies play a role in enhancing the northward propagation of the intraseasonal anomalies over the SCS. (orig.)

  17. Robust signal of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon variability during recent warming period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyung Jin

    2013-04-01

    Coupled global climate models (CGCMs) predict the overall weakening of tropical circulations in an anthropogenically warmed climate in accordance with a simple thermodynamic theory. However, the actual response of the climate systems, in particular, over the recent decades of unprecedented warming still remains a topic of debate. Here, we show that in a suite of cutting-edge atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs), the simulated Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) variability, measured by vertical wind shear of zonal winds, is in excellent agreement with observations on both interannual and inter-decadal timescales during 1979-2008. Furthermore, the trend of the NHSM variability is nearly unanimously enhanced among the AGCMs. The overriding factors in determining the simulated NHSM variations are El Niño on year-to-year timescale, and Mega-ENSO (defined as a leading mode of internal sea surface temperature variability over the Pacific) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on decadal timescale and beyond, which ascertains the findings of a recent observational study. These results suggest that in contrast to the pivotal role of green-house gas forcing in the simulated future warmer climate, the basin-wide natural SST variability has exerted significant impacts on Earth's climate during the recent 30-year period.

  18. Northward extent of East Asian monsoon covaries with intensity on orbital and millennial timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, Yonaton; Broecker, Wallace S.; Xu, Hai; Polissar, Pratigya J.; deMenocal, Peter B.; Porat, Naomi; Lan, Jianghu; Cheng, Peng; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

    2017-02-01

    The magnitude, rate, and extent of past and future East Asian monsoon (EAM) rainfall fluctuations remain unresolved. Here, late Pleistocene-Holocene EAM rainfall intensity is reconstructed using a well-dated northeastern China closed-basin lake area record located at the modern northwestern fringe of the EAM. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated rapidly between wet and dry periods on time scales of centuries. Lake levels were 60 m higher than present during the early and middle Holocene, requiring a twofold increase in annual rainfall, which, based on modern rainfall distribution, requires a ˜400 km northward expansion/migration of the EAM. The lake record is highly correlated with both northern and southern Chinese cave deposit isotope records, supporting rainfall “intensity based” interpretations of these deposits as opposed to an alternative “water vapor sourcing” interpretation. These results indicate that EAM intensity and the northward extent covary on orbital and millennial timescales. The termination of wet conditions at 5.5 ka BP (˜35 m lake drop) triggered a large cultural collapse of Early Neolithic cultures in north China, and possibly promoted the emergence of complex societies of the Late Neolithic.

  19. Northward extent of East Asian monsoon covaries with intensity on orbital and millennial timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, Yonaton; Broecker, Wallace S; Xu, Hai; Polissar, Pratigya J; deMenocal, Peter B; Porat, Naomi; Lan, Jianghu; Cheng, Peng; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

    2017-02-21

    The magnitude, rate, and extent of past and future East Asian monsoon (EAM) rainfall fluctuations remain unresolved. Here, late Pleistocene-Holocene EAM rainfall intensity is reconstructed using a well-dated northeastern China closed-basin lake area record located at the modern northwestern fringe of the EAM. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated rapidly between wet and dry periods on time scales of centuries. Lake levels were 60 m higher than present during the early and middle Holocene, requiring a twofold increase in annual rainfall, which, based on modern rainfall distribution, requires a ∼400 km northward expansion/migration of the EAM. The lake record is highly correlated with both northern and southern Chinese cave deposit isotope records, supporting rainfall "intensity based" interpretations of these deposits as opposed to an alternative "water vapor sourcing" interpretation. These results indicate that EAM intensity and the northward extent covary on orbital and millennial timescales. The termination of wet conditions at 5.5 ka BP (∼35 m lake drop) triggered a large cultural collapse of Early Neolithic cultures in north China, and possibly promoted the emergence of complex societies of the Late Neolithic.

  20. Holocene South Asian Monsoon Climate Change - Potential Mechanisms and Effects on Past Civilizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staubwasser, M.; Sirocko, F.; Grootes, P. M.; Erlenkeuser, H.; Segl, M.

    2002-12-01

    Planktonic oxygen isotope ratios from the laminated sediment core 63KA off the river Indus delta dated with 80 AMS radiocarbon ages reveal significant climate changes in the south Asian monsoon system throughout the Holocene. The most prominent event of the early-mid Holocene occurred after 8.4 ka BP and is within dating error of the GISP/GRIP event centered at 8.2 ka BP. The late Holocene is generally more variable, and shows non-periodic cycles in the multi-centennial frequency band. The largest change of the entire Holocene occurred at 4.2 ka BP and is concordant with the end of urban Harappan civilization in the Indus valley. Opposing isotopic trends across the northern Arabian Sea surface indicate a reduction in Indus river discharge at that time. Consequently, sustained drought may have initiated the archaeologically recorded interval of southeastward habitat tracking within the Harappan cultural domain. The hemispheric significance of the 4.2 ka BP event is evident from concordant climate change in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. The late Holocene cycles in South Asia, which most likely represent drought cycles, vary between 250 and 800 years and are coherent with the evolution of cosmogenic radiocarbon production rates in the atmosphere. This suggests that solar variability is the fundamental cause behind late Holocene rainfall changes at least over south Asia.

  1. Impact of aerosols and cloud parameters on Indian summer monsoon rain at intraseasonal scale: a diagnostic study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Charu; Thomas, Litty; Kumar, K. Kishore

    2017-01-01

    Aerosol and cloud parameters are known to be the influencing factors of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability at interannual and intraseasonal scales. In this study, we investigate the impact of remotely sensed aerosol optical depth and associated parameters (cloud fraction, cloud optical depth, cloud effective radii, cloud top pressure, and single-scattering albedo) on the individual active (break) spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) season. Active and break spells are identified using satellite-derived data sets over the central Indian (CI) region. The present analysis suggests that the CI region is loaded with higher aerosol concentration and that rainfall is significantly negatively correlated with aerosol optical depth (significant at 1 % significance level) over CI. Contrary to the composite-based previous studies, it has been observed that the aerosol loading and cloud properties are considerably different during the individual active and break events. For break events, composite representation shows that aerosols are stacked along the Himalayan region while all individual break events do not portray this type of aerosol dispensation. It appears from the present analysis that the aerosols may impact the intraseasonal variability of ISMR through its indirect effect by altering the cloud properties and consequently the rainfall. Therefore, aerosols are supposed to be a regional contributor in affecting the intraseasonal variability of summer monsoon rainfall.

  2. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. V. Srinivas

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the ability of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW regional model to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM rainfall climatology in different climate zones during the monsoon onset phase in the decade 2000–2009. The initial and boundary conditions for ARW are provided from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP global reanalysis. Seasonal onset-phase rainfall is compared with corresponding values from 0.25° IMD (India Meteorological Department rainfall and NNRP precipitation data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show that the model could simulate the onset phase in terms of progression and distribution of rainfall in most zones (except over the northeast with good correlations and low error metrics. The observed mean onset dates and their variability over different zones are well reproduced by the regional model over most climate zones. It has been found that the ARW performed similarly to the reanalysis in most zones and improves the onset time by 1 to 3 days in zones 4 and 7, in which the NNRP shows a delayed onset compared to the actual IMD onset times. The variations in the onset-phase rainfall during the below-normal onset (June negative and above-normal onset (June positive phases are well simulated. The slight underestimation of onset-phase rainfall in the northeast zone could be due to failure in resolving the wide extent of topographic variations and the associated multiscale interactions in that zone. Spatial comparisons showed improvement of pentad rainfall in both space and quantity in ARW simulations over NNRP data, as evident from a wider eastward distribution of pentad rainfall over the Western Ghats, central and eastern India, as in IMD observations. While NNRP under-represented the high pentad rainfall over

  3. Consistent response of Indian summer monsoon to Middle East dust in observations and simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Q.

    2015-06-11

    The response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and precipitation to Middle East dust aerosols on sub-seasonal timescales is studied using observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem). Satellite data show that the ISM rainfall in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and Pakistan is closely associated with the Middle East dust aerosols. The physical mechanism behind this dust–ISM rainfall connection is examined through ensemble simulations with and without dust emissions. Each ensemble includes 16 members with various physical and chemical schemes to consider the model uncertainties in parameterizing short-wave radiation, the planetary boundary layer, and aerosol chemical mixing rules. Experiments show that dust aerosols increase rainfall by about 0.44mmday1 ( 10% of the climatology) in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and north Pakistan, a pattern consistent with the observed relationship. The ensemble mean rainfall response over India shows a much stronger spatial correlation with the observed rainfall response than any other ensemble members. The largest modeling uncertainties are from the boundary layer schemes, followed by short-wave radiation schemes. In WRF-Chem, the dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Middle East shows the strongest correlation with the ISM rainfall response when dust AOD leads rainfall response by about 11 days. Further analyses show that increased ISM rainfall is related to enhanced southwesterly monsoon flow and moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to the Indian subcontinent, which are associated with the development of an anomalous low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Iranian Plateau due to dust-induced heating in the troposphere. The dust-induced heating in the mid-upper troposphere is mainly located in the Iranian Plateau rather than the Tibetan Plateau. This study demonstrates

  4. Investigation of the aerosol-cloud-rainfall association over the Indian summer monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarangi, Chandan; Nand Tripathi, Sachchida; Kanawade, Vijay P.; Koren, Ilan; Sivanand Pai, D.

    2017-04-01

    Monsoonal rainfall is the primary source of surface water in India. Using 12 years of in situ and satellite observations, we examined the association of aerosol loading with cloud fraction, cloud top pressure, cloud top temperature, and daily surface rainfall over the Indian summer monsoon region (ISMR). Our results showed positive correlations between aerosol loading and cloud properties as well as rainfall. A decrease in outgoing longwave radiation and an increase in reflected shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere with an increase in aerosol loading further indicates a possible seminal role of aerosols in the deepening of cloud systems. Significant perturbation in liquid- and ice-phase microphysics was also evident over the ISMR. For the polluted cases, delay in the onset of collision-coalescence processes and an enhancement in the condensation efficiency allows for more condensate mass to be lifted up to the mixed colder phases. This results in the higher mass concentration of larger-sized ice-phase hydrometeors and, therefore, implies that the delayed rain processes eventually lead to more surface rainfall. A numerical simulation of a typical rainfall event case over the ISMR using a spectral bin microphysical scheme coupled with the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF-SBM) model was also performed. Simulated microphysics also illustrated that the initial suppression of warm rain coupled with an increase in updraft velocity under high aerosol loading leads to enhanced super-cooled liquid droplets above freezing level and ice-phase hydrometeors, resulting in increased accumulated surface rainfall. Thus, both observational and numerical analysis suggest that high aerosol loading may induce cloud invigoration, thereby increasing surface rainfall over the ISMR. While the meteorological variability influences the strength of the observed positive association, our results suggest that the persistent aerosol-associated deepening of cloud systems and an

  5. Consistent response of Indian summer monsoon to Middle East dust in observations and simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Q.

    2015-09-02

    © Author(s) 2015. The response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and precipitation to Middle East dust aerosols on sub-seasonal timescales is studied using observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem). Satellite data show that the ISM rainfall in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and Pakistan is closely associated with the Middle East dust aerosols. The physical mechanism behind this dust-ISM rainfall connection is examined through ensemble simulations with and without dust emissions. Each ensemble includes 16 members with various physical and chemical schemes to consider the model uncertainties in parameterizing short-wave radiation, the planetary boundary layer, and aerosol chemical mixing rules. Experiments show that dust aerosols increase rainfall by about 0.44 mm day-1 (∼10 % of the climatology) in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and north Pakistan, a pattern consistent with the observed relationship. The ensemble mean rainfall response over India shows a much stronger spatial correlation with the observed rainfall response than any other ensemble members. The largest modeling uncertainties are from the boundary layer schemes, followed by short-wave radiation schemes. In WRF-Chem, the dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Middle East shows the strongest correlation with the ISM rainfall response when dust AOD leads rainfall response by about 11 days. Further analyses show that increased ISM rainfall is related to enhanced southwesterly monsoon flow and moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to the Indian subcontinent, which are associated with the development of an anomalous low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Iranian Plateau due to dust-induced heating in the troposphere. The dust-induced heating in the mid-upper troposphere is mainly located in the Iranian Plateau rather than the Tibetan

  6. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    KAUST Repository

    Srinivas, C. V.

    2015-09-11

    This study examines the ability of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) regional model to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall climatology in different climate zones during the monsoon onset phase in the decade 2000–2009. The initial and boundary conditions for ARW are provided from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP) global reanalysis. Seasonal onset-phase rainfall is compared with corresponding values from 0.25° IMD (India Meteorological Department) rainfall and NNRP precipitation data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid) of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show that the model could simulate the onset phase in terms of progression and distribution of rainfall in most zones (except over the northeast) with good correlations and low error metrics. The observed mean onset dates and their variability over different zones are well reproduced by the regional model over most climate zones. It has been found that the ARW performed similarly to the reanalysis in most zones and improves the onset time by 1 to 3 days in zones 4 and 7, in which the NNRP shows a delayed onset compared to the actual IMD onset times. The variations in the onset-phase rainfall during the below-normal onset (June negative) and above-normal onset (June positive) phases are well simulated. The slight underestimation of onset-phase rainfall in the northeast zone could be due to failure in resolving the wide extent of topographic variations and the associated multiscale interactions in that zone. Spatial comparisons showed improvement of pentad rainfall in both space and quantity in ARW simulations over NNRP data, as evident from a wider eastward distribution of pentad rainfall over the Western Ghats, central and eastern India, as in IMD observations. While NNRP under-represented the high pentad rainfall over northeast, east and

  7. The dependence on atmospheric resolution of ENSO and related East Asian-western North Pacific summer climate variability in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Zhao, Guijie; Huang, Gang; Wang, Pengfei; Yan, Bangliang

    2017-08-01

    The authors present results for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian-western North Pacific climate variability simulated in a new version high-resolution coupled model (ICM.V2) developed at the Center for Monsoon System Research of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CMSR, IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. The analyses are based on the last 100-year output of a 1000-year simulation. Results are compared to an earlier version of the same coupled model (ICM.V1), reanalysis, and observations. The two versions of ICM have similar physics but different atmospheric resolution. The simulated climatological mean states show marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics in ICM.V2 compared to those in ICM.V1. The common bias in the cold tongue has reduced, and the warm biases along the ocean boundaries have improved as well. With improved simulation of ENSO, including its period and strength, the ENSO-related western North Pacific summer climate variability becomes more realistic compared to the observations. The simulated East Asian summer monsoon anomalies in the El Niño decaying summer are substantially more realistic in ICM.V2, which might be related to a better simulation of the Indo-Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

  8. Particulate matter and heavy metal deposition on the leaves of Euonymus japonicus during the East Asian monsoon in Beijing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tong Zhang

    Full Text Available Plants can be effectively used as bio-monitors of environmental pollution. However, how the particulate matter (PM and heavy metal retention ability of plants changes in different areas with human disturbance along with monsoon has not yet been investigated in urban ecosystems. In this study, we measured the amount of PM and heavy metals such as Ni, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn accumulated by the leaves of Euonymus japonicus during the East Asian monsoon from different functional units in Beijing, China. A rinse-and-weigh method developed in our laboratory was used to determine the mass of the PM, and electro-thermal atomic absorption spectrometry was used for heavy metal analysis. We found that the types of functional units had little influence, whereas the monsoon had a significant effect on the deposition of PM: northwest areas during the monsoon had the lowest effect (with 0.005, 0.453, 0.643, and 1.569 g/m2 fine, coarse, large, and total PM, respectively, and the southeast areas during the monsoon had the highest effect (0.015, 2.687, 1.941, and 4.228 g/m2 for fine, coarse, large, and total PM, respectively. Notable, we found considerable variations in heavy metal accumulation across the functional units analyzed, that is, the accumulation level was higher in communities than in parks (P < 0.0001 for all heavy metals. Moreover, a positive relationship was found between PM retention and heavy metal accumulation by the leaves of E. japonicus. Taken together, our results suggested that the PM and heavy metal retention ability of E. japonicus was sensitive to human disturbance and monsoon in Beijing. Since E. japonicus is a widely distributed tree and has the ability of to purify the atmosphere, it is an ideal plant for mitigating urban environmental pollution.

  9. The value of C sub(e) for the Arabian Sea during summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, A.S.; Sadhuram, Y.; Krishna, V.V.G.

    We estimate, from the moisture budget the bulk aerodynamic coefficient for latent heat flux (C sub(e)) during the monsoon season over the central Arabian Sea. The average value of C sub(e) under active monsoon conditions was found to be 2.25 x 10...

  10. The vorticity and angular momentum budgets of Asian summer ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 113; Issue 3. The vorticity and angular momentum ... The flux convergence of omega and relative momenta over the monsoon domain is effectively balanced by pressure torque during the evolution and established phases. Nevertheless, the balance is stronger ...

  11. Detecting the influence of ocean process on the moisture supply for India summer monsoon from Satellite Sea Surface Salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, W.; Yueh, S. H.; Liu, W. T.; Fore, A.; Hayashi, A.

    2016-02-01

    A strong contrast in the onset of Indian summer monsoon was observed by independent satellites: average rain rate over India subcontinent (IS) in June was more than doubled in 2013 than 2012 (TRMM); also observed are larger area of wet soil (Aquarius) and high water storage (GRACE). The difference in IS rainfall was contributed to the moisture inputs through west coast of India, estimated from ocean wind (OSCAT2) and water vapor (TMI). This is an interesting testbed for studying the role of ocean on terrestrial water cycle, in particular the Indian monsoon, which has tremendous social-economical impact. What is the source of extra moisture in 2013 or deficit in 2012 for the monsoon onset? Is it possible to quantify the contribution of ocean process that maybe responsible for redistributing the freshwater in favor of the summer monsoon moisture supply? This study aims to identify the influence of ocean processes on the freshwater exchange between air-sea interfaces, using Aquarius sea surface salinity (SSS). We found two areas in Indian Ocean with high correlation between IS rain rate and Aquarius SSS: one area is in the Arabian Sea adjacent to IS, another area is a horizontal patch from 60°E to 100°E centered around 10°S. On the other hand, E-P (OAflux, TRMM) shows no similar correlation patterns with IS rain. Based on the governing equation of the salt budget in the upper ocean, we define the freshwater flux, F, from the oceanic branch of the water cycle, including contributions from salinity tendency, advection, and subsurface process. The tendency and advection terms are estimated using Aquarius SSS and OSCAR ocean current. We will present results of analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of F and evidence of and hypothesis on how the oceanic processes may enhance the moisture supply for summer Indian monsoon onset in 2013 comparing with 2012. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) has been producing the global soil moisture (SM) every 2-3 days

  12. Progress Towards Achieving the Challenge of Indian Summer Monsoon Climate Simulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Pokhrel, Samir; Goswami, B. N.

    2017-10-01

    Simulation of the spatial and temporal structure of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), which have effects on the seasonal mean and annual cycle of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, remains a grand challenge for the state-of-the-art global coupled models. Biases in simulation of the amplitude and northward propagation of MISOs and related dry rainfall bias over ISM region in climate models are limiting the current skill of monsoon prediction. Recent observations indicate that the convective microphysics of clouds may be critical in simulating the observed MISOs. The hypothesis is strongly supported by high fidelity in simulation of the amplitude and space-time spectra of MISO by a coupled climate model, when our physically based modified cloud microphysics scheme is implemented in conjunction with a modified new Simple Arakawa Schubert (nSAS) convective parameterization scheme. Improved simulation of MISOs appears to have been aided by much improved simulation of the observed high cloud fraction and convective to stratiform rain fractions and resulted into a much improved simulation of the ISM rainfall, monsoon onset, and the annual cycle.

  13. Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Rahman, Hasibur; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Salunke, Kiran; Hazra, Anupam; Sujith, K.; Sikka, D. R.

    2016-04-01

    A detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and Pacific Ocean basin, with special emphasis on the Indian land region. The simulated seasonal mean and the inter-annual standard deviations of rainfall, upper and lower level atmospheric circulations and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tend to be more skillful as the lead forecast time decreases (5 month lead to 0 month lead time i.e. L5-L0). In general spatial correlation (bias) increases (decreases) as forecast lead time decreases. This is further substantiated by their averaged value over the selected study regions over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. The tendency of increase (decrease) of model bias with increasing (decreasing) forecast lead time also indicates the dynamical drift of the model. Large scale lower level circulation (850 hPa) shows enhancement of anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the tropical region of the Indian Ocean (Western Pacific Ocean), which indicates the enhancement of model error with the decrease in lead time. At the upper level circulation (200 hPa) biases in both tropical easterly jet and subtropical westerlies jet tend to decrease as the lead time decreases. Despite enhancement of the prediction skill, mean SST bias seems to be insensitive to the initialization. All these biases are significant and together they make CFSv2 vulnerable to seasonal uncertainties in all the lead times. Overall the zeroth lead (L0) seems to have the best skill, however, in case of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the 3 month lead forecast time (L3) has the maximum ISMR prediction skill. This is valid using different independent datasets, wherein these maximum skill scores are 0.64, 0.42 and 0.57 with respect to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project

  14. Cloud condensation nuclei over the Bay of Bengal during the Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chate, D. M.; Waghmare, R. T.; Jena, C. K.; Gopalakrishnan, V.; Murugavel, P.; Ghude, Sachin D.; Kulkarni, Rachana; Devara, P. C. S.

    2018-02-01

    The first measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) at five supersaturations were carried out onboard the research vessel "Sagar Kanya" (cruise SK-296) from the south to the head-bay of the Bay of Bengal as part of the Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) Project during the Indian summer monsoon of 2012. In this paper, we assess the diurnal variation in CCN distributions at supersaturations from 0.2% to 1% (in steps of 0.2%) and the power-law fit at supersaturation of 1%. The diurnal pattern shows peaks in CCN concentration (NCCN) at supersaturations from 0.2% to 1% between 0600 and 0700 LST (local standard time, UTC+0530), with relatively low concentrations between 1200 and 1400 LST, followed by a peak at around 1800 LST. The power-law fit for the CCN distribution at different supersaturation levels relates the empirical exponent ( k) of supersaturation (%) and the N CCN at a supersaturation of 1%. The N CCN at a supersaturation of 0.4% is observed to vary from 702 cm-3 to 1289 cm-3, with a mean of 961±161 cm-3 (95% confidence interval), representing the CCN activity of marine air masses. Whereas, the mean N CCN of 1628±193 cm-3 at a supersaturation of 1% is higher than anticipated for the marine background. When the number of CCN spectra is 1293, the value of k is 0.57±0.03 (99% confidence interval) and its probability distribution shows cumulative counts significant at k ≈ 0.55±0.25. The results are found to be better at representing the features of the marine environment (103 cm-3 and k ≈ 0.5) and useful for validating CCN closure studies for Indian sea regions.

  15. CloudSat observations of cloud-type distribution over the Indian summer monsoon region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. V. Subrahmanyam

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The three-dimensional distribution of various cloud types over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM region using five years (2006–2010 of CloudSat observations during June-July-August-September months is discussed for the first time. As the radiative properties, latent heat released and microphysical properties of clouds differ largely depending on the cloud type, it becomes important to know what types of clouds occur over which region. In this regard, the present analysis establishes the three-dimensional distribution of frequency of occurrence of stratus (St, stratocumulus (Sc, nimbostratus (Ns, cumulus (Cu, altocumulus (Ac, altostratus (As, cirrus (Ci and deep convective (DC clouds over the ISM region. The results show that the various cloud types preferentially occur over some regions of the ISM, which are consistent during all the years of observations. It is found that the DC clouds frequently occur over northeast of Bay of Bengal (BoB, Ci clouds over a wide region of south BoB–Indian peninsula–equatorial Indian Ocean, and Sc clouds over the north Arabian Sea. Ac clouds preferentially occur over land, and a large amount of As clouds are found over BoB. The occurrence of both St and Ns clouds over the study region is much lower than all other cloud types.The interannual variability of all these clouds including their vertical distribution is discussed. It is envisaged that the present study opens up possibilities to quantify the feedback of individual cloud type in the maintenance of the ISM through radiative forcing and latent heat release.

  16. Potential predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Subodh Kumar; Pokhrel, Samir; Salunke, Kiran; Dhakate, Ashish; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Rahaman, Hasibur; Sujith, K.; Hazra, Anupam; Sikka, D. R.

    2016-03-01

    The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), soil moisture, and sea surface temperature (SST) is explored in the latest version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) retrospective forecast at five different lead times. The focus of this study is to find out the sensitivity of the potential predictability of the ISMR to the initial condition through analysis of variance technique (ANOVA), information-based measure, including relative entropy (RE), mutual information (MI), and classical perfect model correlation. In general, the all methods show an increase in potential predictability with a decrease in lead time. Predictability is large over the Pacific Ocean basin as compared to that of the Indian Ocean basin. However, over the Indian land region the potential predictability increases from lead-4 to lead-2 and then decreases at lead-1 followed by again increase at lead-0. While the actual ISMR prediction skill is highest at lead-3 forecast (second highest at lead-1), the potential predictability is highest at lead-2. It is found that highest and second highest actual prediction skill of the ISMR in CFSv2 is due to the combined effects of initial Eurasian snow and SST over Indian, west Pacific and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean region. While the teleconnection between the ISMR and El Niño-Southern Oscillation is too strong, the ISMR and Indian Ocean dipole have completely out of phase relation in the model as compared to the observation. Furthermore, the actual prediction skill of the ISMR is now very close to the potential predictability limit. Therefore, in order to improve the ISMR prediction skill further, development of model physics as well as improvements in the initial conditions is required.

  17. Empirical prediction of the onset dates of South China Sea summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Tim

    2017-03-01

    The onset of South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) signifies the commencement of the wet season over East Asia. Predicting the SCSSM onset date is of significant importance. In this study, we establish two different statistical models, namely the physical-empirical model (PEM) and the spatial-temporal projection model (STPM) to predict the SCSSM onset. The PEM is constructed from the seasonal prediction perspective. Observational diagnoses reveal that the early onset of the SCSSM is preceded by (a) a warming tendency in middle and lower troposphere (850-500 hPa) over central Siberia from January to March, (b) a La Niña-like zonal dipole sea surface temperature pattern over the tropical Pacific in March, and (c) a dipole sea level pressure pattern with negative center in subtropics and positive center over high latitude of Southern Hemisphere in January. The PEM built on these predictors achieves a cross-validated reforecast temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.84 for the period of 1979-2004, and an independent forecast TCC skill of 0.72 for the period 2005-2014. The STPM is built on the extended-range forecast perspective. Pentad data are used to predict a zonal wind index over the South China Sea region. Similar to PEM, the STPM is constructed using 1979-2004 data. Based on the forecasted zonal wind index, the independent forecast of the SCSSM onset dates achieves a TCC skill of 0.90 for 2005-2014. The STPM provides more detailed information for the intraseasonal evolution during the period of the SCSSM onset (pentad 25-35). The two models proposed herein are expected to facilitate the real-time prediction of the SCSSM onset.

  18. An Empirical Study of Surface Wind Retrievals using the TMI over the South China Sea in the Summer Monsoon Season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Chung Li Gin-Rong Liu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates the feasibility of an oceanic wind speed retrieval method: the D-matrix algorithm for local usage. The D-matrix algorithm was examined and ocean surface wind retrievals, utilizing the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI, were validated by using wind speed measurements from ocean buoys deployed over the South China Sea from April to June of 1998 as part of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment / 1998. Results showed the TMI D-matrix algorithm potentially malfunctioning in terms of no-rainfall recognition when summer monsoons prevail. In this study, assistance to its rain identification ability was conducted by using rain-screening methods for screening out non-rainfall TMI points. As to the quantitative validation, only cases of wind speed weaker than 15 m s-1 were analyzed with a root mean square of 1.34 m s-1. The study results are significant for local usage of the rain-fall-profiling algorithm providing a scheme for estimating surface wind speeds over the South China Sea during the summer monsoon season.

  19. Interdecadal changes in the East Asian winter monsoon and their possible causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Junghee; Ha, Kyung-Ja

    2017-04-01

    Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) for detecting the interdecadal changes in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), this study investigates that the intensity of the EAWM experienced remarkable transition around mid-1980s and late 2000s: a strong period (P1, 1960-1986), a weak period (P2, 1987-2007), and a strong period (P3, 2008-2013). The EAWM is influenced by a distinctive cold (warm) temperature anomaly, and cold (warm) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are present over the North Pacific (NP) during P1 (P2). In contrast with P1, the EAWM is characterized by a large temperature difference between Eurasian continent and NP, and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-like SST pattern is found over the NP during P3. During three periods, the Siberian high (SH) plays an important role in deciding the intensity of the EAWM. In addition, the EAWM exists under the influence of an enhanced atmospheric circulation associated with a positive North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and a negative PDO during P2 and P3, respectively. Accordingly, to recognize the impacts of this climate variability on the weakening (strengthening) EAWM, the combined effect of the SH and NPO (SH and PDO) is explored during P1 and P2 (P2 and P3). Consequently, while the atmospheric variabilities such as SH and NPO are the dominant contributors to the weakening of EAWM after the mid-1980s, the SST variability such as PDO contributes to the strengthening of EAWM along with the SH variability in recent decade.

  20. Orbitally-paced variations of water availability in the SE Asian Monsoon region following the Miocene Climate Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitmann, Emma O.; Ji, Shunchuan; Nie, Junsheng; Breecker, Daniel O.

    2017-09-01

    Middle Miocene Earth had several boundary conditions similar to those predicted for future Earth including similar atmospheric pCO2 and substantial Antarctic ice cover but no northern hemisphere ice sheets. We describe a 12 m outcrop of the terrestrial Yanwan Section in the Tianshui Basin, Gansu, China, following the Miocene Climate Transition (13.9-13.7 Ma). It consists of ∼25 cm thick CaCO3-cemented horizons that overprint siltstones every ∼1 m. We suggest that stacked soils developed in siltstones under a seasonal climate with a fluctuating water table, evidenced by roots, clay films, mottling, presence of CaCO3 nodules, and stacked carbonate nodule δ13 C and δ18 O profiles that mimic modern soils. We suggest that the CaCO3-cemented horizons are capillary-fringe carbonates that formed in an arid climate with a steady water table and high potential evapotranspiration rates (PET), evidenced by sharp upper and basal contacts, micrite, sparite, and root-pore cements. The CaCO3 of the cemented horizons and the carbonate nodules have similar mean δ18 O and δ13 C values but the cements have significantly smaller variance in δ13 C and δ18 O values and a different δ18 O versus δ13 C slope, supporting the conclusion that these carbonates are from different populations. The magneto-stratigraphic age model indicates obliquity pacing of the arid conditions required to form the CaCO3-cemented horizons suggesting an orbital control on water availability. We suggest two possible drivers for the obliquity pacing of arid conditions: 1) variability in the cross-equatorial pressure gradient that controls summer monsoon (ASM) strength and is influenced by obliquity-paced variations of Antarctic ice volume and 2) variability in Western Pacific Ocean-East Asian continent pressure gradient controlled by the 25-45°N meridional insolation gradient. We also suggest that variations in aridity were influenced by variations in PET and sensible heating of the regional land

  1. A climate model study of an intense Asian Monsoon in a La Niña-like climate of MIS-13

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karami, M. P.; Berger, A.; Herold, N.; Yin, Q. Z.

    2012-04-01

    Studying the paleo-monsoon during past interglacials is a valuable approach to improve our understanding of the monsoon system in present-day and future climates. We focus on Marine Isotopic stage 13 (MIS-13; ~0.5 Ma) which was a relatively cool interglacial, but with a paradoxically intense monsoonal precipitation over eastern and southern Asia. Our main goal is to understand the physics-based mechanism driving the intense monsoon, specifically the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), during MIS-13. We applied both an intermediate complexity model (LOVECLIM) as well as fully coupled general circulation models (HadCM3 and CCSM3) to simulate pre-industrial and MIS-13 climates. The boundary conditions for MIS-13 were chosen for 506 ka with Northern-Hemisphere (NH) summer at perihelion and a CO2 concentration of 240 ppm. For pre-industrial, NH-winter occurring at perihelion and a CO2 concentration of 280 ppm were prescribed. Preliminary analysis of the model results shows different atmospheric and oceanic features in MIS-13 compared to the pre-industrial which could affect the EASM. The Northern Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH), which is an important factor in controlling the EASM, strengthened and extended to the northwest in MIS-13 partially due to cooling of the central Pacific Ocean. This in turn brought more moisture from the Central Pacific to the EASM-region and caused a northwestward shift and bending of the low-level jet along East Asia. The change in the low-level jet subsequently increased the meridional wind velocity at 850 mbar in the EASM-region providing more moisture from the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. In addition, higher sea-surface temperature in the Indian Ocean during MIS-13 further increased the source of moisture for the EASM. The Asian low, which is another component of the EASM-system, also shifted eastward moving the rain band northward. Moreover, it was found that MIS-13 had a dominant La Niña condition in the tropical Pacific. La Ni

  2. Monsoons, history of

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Niitsuma, N.; Naidu, P.D.

    in the equatorial Pacific. The chronological sequence of monsoonal events, and the strength of trade winds and equatorial upwelling suggests that the Asian monsoons were an important control on global climate and oceanic productivity...

  3. Clay minerals as proxies of the late Quaternary East Asian monsoon evolution in the South China Sea revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Li, X.; He, Z.; Colin, C.; Zhao, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Clay minerals have a significant role in sedimentation and paleoenvironment studies of the South China Sea. Many previous studies showed that the time series variation in late Quaternary clay mineral assemblages presents mostly glacial-interglacial cyclicity, and they were interpreted chemical weathering closely related to contemporaneous climatic changes of source areas. It is quite debatable whether clay minerals can directly indicate the East Asian monsoon evolution. To answer this question, we investigated sediment cores collected in various locations in the South China Sea during the MARCO POLO cruise in 2005, MD05-2904 (2066 m water depth, abbreviated w.d.) and MD05-2905 (1198 m w.d.) in the north, MD05-2901 (1254 m w.d.) and MD05-2899 (2393 m w.d.) in the west, and MD05-2895 (1982 m w.d.) in the south. Our results show that provenance supply and current transport directly control the clay mineralogical compositions in core and surface sediments, with various expression forms in different locations. In the north, the clay mineral assemblage indicates a relationship between surface current transport (for smectite) under the significant influence of the Kuroshio intrusion and deep water transport (for illite and chlorite). In the west, the East Asian monsoons forced surface currents and different clay-composition provenances affect the glacial-interglacial cyclicity of clay mineral variations. In the south, land-sea distribution variations controlled by the sea level change determine the sources of clay minerals. Our new studies suggest that the late Quaternary clay minerals in the South China Sea do not bear contemporaneous paleoclimatic features, and their implication for proxies of the East Asian monsoon evolution is realized through both the provenance supply and current transport processes.

  4. Role of distinct flavours of IOD events on Indian summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Anil, N.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Sajeev, R.; Saji, P.K.

    from Monsoon Mission project (Ministry of Earth Sciences) and Mr. Baby Chakrapani for his motivation in this research work. We sincerely thank two anonymous reviewers for reviewing this paper. We used Ferret software for preparing figures. Nat Hazards...

  5. Driving forces of Indian summer monsoon on Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch time scales: A review

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    A scientific consensus exists that tectonic evolution of Himalaya is the main cause of monsoon initiation and evolution in southeast Asia. Several forcing factors such as tectonic, solar insolation, latent heat transport, albedo of the earth surface...

  6. Differences in atmospheric heat source between the Tibetan Plateau-South Asia region and the southern Indian Ocean and their impacts on the Indian summer monsoon outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiwei; Fan, Guangzhou; Hua, Wei; Zhang, Yongli; Wang, Bingyun; Lai, Xin

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, the NCEP-NCAR daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the characteristics of the atmospheric heat source/sink (AHSS) over South Asia (SA) and southern Indian Ocean (SIO). The thermal differences between these two regions and their influence on the outbreak of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are explored. Composite analysis and correlation analysis are applied. The results indicate that the intraseasonal variability of AHSS is significant in SA but insignificant in the SIO. Large inland areas in the Northern Hemisphere still behave as a heat sink in March, similar to the situation in winter. Significant differences are found in the distribution of AHSS between the ocean and land, with distinct land-ocean thermal contrast in April, and the pattern presents in the transitional period right before the ISM onset. In May, strong heat centers appear over the areas from the Indochina Peninsula to the Bay of Bengal and south of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is a typical pattern of AHSS distribution during the monsoon season. The timing of SA-SIO thermal difference turning positive is about 15 pentads in advance of the onset of the ISM. Then, after the thermal differences have turned positive, a pre-monsoon meridional circulation cell develops due to the near-surface heat center and the negative thermal contrast center, after which the meridional circulation of the ISM gradually establishes. In years of early (late) conversion of the SA-SIO thermal difference turning from negative to positive, the AHSS at all levels over the TP and SIO converts later (earlier) than normal and the establishment of the ascending and descending branches of the ISM's meridional circulation is later (earlier) too. Meanwhile, the establishment of the South Asian high over the TP is later (earlier) than normal and the conversion of the Mascarene high from winter to summer mode occurs anomalously late (early). As a result, the onset of the ISM is later (earlier) than normal

  7. Indian Summer Monsoon dynamics during Termination II and MIS 5e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magiera, Matthias; Erhardt, Andrea M.; Hartland, Adam; Kwiecien, Ola; Cheng, Hai; Immenhauser, Adrian; Turchyn, Alexandra; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

    2017-04-01

    The interpretation of speleothem oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) as proxy for Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) dynamics is ambiguous, due to multiple influencing factors. Here we combine δ18O and calcium isotope δ44Ca analyses with elemental data to delineate regional shifts in moisture source, local rainfall amount, and changes in ISM intensity and length during Termination II and MIS 5e. Oxygen isotope ratios reflect a mixed signal of moisture source dynamics and rainfall amount; δ44Ca and Mg/Ca ratios are interpreted as proxies for local effective moisture and prior calcite precipitation (PCP) in the epikarst. The age of stalagmite MAW-3 from Mawmluh Cave, NE India, is constraint by six U-series dates. 108 samples, obtained at 0.4 mm resolution from the 70 mm long speleothem sample, have been analysed for δ18O, δ44Ca and Mg/Ca. Oxygen isotope ratios were measured on a ThermoFisher Scientific MAT 253 at Ruhr-University Bochum. Elemental ratios were measured on a quadrupole ICP-MS at Waikato University. Calcium isotope ratios were analyzed on a ThermoFisher Scientific Triton at University of Cambridge. MAW-3 grew from 136 kyrs BP to 96 kyrs BP, covering Termination II and MIS 5e. Oxygen isotope values are high (ca. +0.91 ‰) during Termination II, reach a minimum during MIS 5e (-3.5 ‰), and rise again to -0.2 ‰ at the end of MIS 5e. Calcium isotope ratios range from -0.32 ‰ to -0.70 ‰ and show a positive correlation (R2= 0.7) with δ18O. High δ18O values during Termination II reflect reduced atmospheric circulation and/or a proximal moisture source (Bay of Bengal), implying lowered ISM intensity. A positive correlation of δ18O with δ44Ca suggests concurrent changes of moisture source location and local rainfall amount, with a proximal moisture source and reduced effective rainfall during periods of weak ISM. Elevated Mg/Ca ratios at such intervals corroborate PCP occurrence, which reflects dry conditions. The beginning of MIS 5e (ca. 132 kyrs BP) is

  8. Orbital forcing of the late Pleistocene boreal summer monsoon: Links to North Atlantic cold events and El Nino; Southern Oscillation. Geologica Ultraiectina (313)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ziegler, M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304838284

    2009-01-01

    This thesis revolves about the timing of precession-related variations in the boreal summer monsoon and the impact of North Atlantic cold events and the El Nino Southern Oscillation on this timing. Transient climate modelling experiments indicate that the intensity of the Northern Hemisphere summer

  9. Sulfur isotope geochemistry of the central Japan Sea sediments (IODP Exp. 346) 20 150 kyr ago: Implications for the evolution of Asian Monsoon climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oshio, S.; Yamaguchi, K. E.; Takahashi, S.; Naraoka, H.; Ikehara, M.

    2016-12-01

    Asian monsoon climate system has started about 50 Ma, after the collision of the Indian and Eurasian continents followed by uplift of the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau. It has influenced sediments in the Japan Sea, where cm-scale alternation of Corg-rich dark layers and Corg-poor light layers occurs. This is most likely due to temporal changes in the nutrient status and/or oceanic redox conditions, which are likely caused by the fluctuations in the intensity of continental weathering and ocean currents, both of which were ultimately caused by the variable monsoon system. In order to obtain insights into the evolving oceanic redox state and the monsoon system, we conducted sulfur speciation and isotope study for the marine sediment core samples recovered in the central Japan Sea by IODP Exp. 346. The light layers have lower Spy (0.03-0.25 wt.%) contents when compared to the dark layers (0.26-1.49 wt.%). The Corg contents have similar distribution (0.34-1.10 wt.% for light layers and 1.16-3.38 wt.% for dark layers). However, the SSO4 contents (0.02-.64 wt.%) and the δ34S values (-34 to -38‰) did not show such light-dark distinction. Elevated Spy/Corg ratios (0.03-1.00) in the dark layers are interpreted to represent sulfide formation in the anoxic water column by bacterial sulfate reduction. During deposition of light layers, oxidation of sulfide minerals could have resulted in formation of sulfate minerals without significant isotope fractionation, as observed in this study. Regardless of the type of the sediments (dark vs. light), sulfate was not limiting during bacterial sulfate reduction, as reflected in the sulfur isotope compositions. We speculate that, during deposition of dark layers, enhanced summer monsoon activity caused heavy rainfall and increased source-rock weathering, runoff of the Yangtze River, and nutrient input into the East China Sea and the Tsushima Warm Current. Inflow of nutrient-rich and less salty water into the Japan Sea triggered

  10. A simple method to forecast the frequency of depressions and cyclones over Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Maneesha, K.; Suneeta, P.

    2017-02-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to develop a simple multiple regression model to forecast the total number of depressions and cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon (June-September) season using the data for the period, 1995-2016. Four potential predictors (zonal wind speed at 850 hPa in May and April SST in the North Australia-Indonesia region, 05°S-15°S; 120°E-160°E; March NINO 3.4 SST and geopotential height at 200 hPa in the region, 0°N-10°N; 80°E-100°E) have been identified to forecast TNDC. A remarkably high multiple correlation coefficient of 0.92 has been observed with the TNDC which explains 85% variability. The methodology has been tested for the recent 5 years (2012-2016) and found a good agreement between the observed and forecast values of TNDC except in 2015 in which the observed and predicted TNDC were 2 and 0, respectively. It is interesting to see high and significant correlations between the above predictors and the genesis potential parameter (GPP) during summer monsoon season. This GPP depends on the relative vorticity at 850 hPa, mid troposphere relative humidity, thermal instability between 850 and 500 hPa, and vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa. It is inferred that the above predictors are influencing the environmental conditions over Bay of Bengal which, in turn, influencing the genesis of cyclones during summer monsoon season. The impact of ENSO (El-Nino-Southern Oscillation) and La-Nina in TNDC is examined and found that the vertical wind shear and relative vorticity are high and the GPP was almost double in ENSO compared with that in La-Nina which favoured high (low) TNDC under ENSO (La-Nina).

  11. A study on the characteristics of temperature inversions in active and break phases of Indian summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Muraleedharan, P.M.; Mohankumar, K.; Sivakumar, K.U.

    stream_size 36355 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name J_Atmos_Solar-Terr_Phys_93_11a.pdf.txt stream_source_info J_Atmos_Solar-Terr_Phys_93_11a.pdf.txt Content-Encoding UTF-8 Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8... 1        Author version: J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., vol.93; 2013; 11-20 A study on the characteristics of temperature inversions in active and break phases of Indian summer monsoon P. M. MURALEEDHARAN†, K. MOHANKUMAR**, K. U. SIVAKUMAR...

  12. Long-range forecast of monthly rainfall over India during summer monsoon season using SST in the north Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.

    models by De l sole and Shukla 3 . They showed that minimum number of predi c tors are sufficient for accurate forecasts. R e cen t studies 4,5 reported lon g - range pr e diction of summer monsoon rainfall using Art i- ficial Neural Network (ANN... riod I. RMSE for the whole p eriod (excluding 2002) were of the o r de r of ?2 to ?5 cm for period I. For p e riod II, the RMSE are ?2 to ?5 cm and ?3 to ?6 c m for the training period and tes t ing periods respectively. RMSE...

  13. Influence of Indian summer monsoon variability on the surface waves in the coastal regions of eastern Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SanilKumar, V.; Jesbin, G.

    / V. Sanil Kumar and J. George: Influence of Indian summer monsoon variability 873 et al., 2013; Sanil Kumar and Anjali Nair, 2015; Amrutha et al., 2016). Long-period swells from the Southern Hemi- sphere were also observed in the eastern AS during.... DMI is represented by anomalous SST gradi- ent between the western equatorial Indian Ocean (50–70◦ E and 10◦ S–10◦ N) and the south-eastern equatorial Indian www.ann-geophys.net/34/871/2016/ Ann. Geophys., 34, 871–885, 2016 874 V. Sanil Kumar and J...

  14. Revised cloud processes to improve the mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon in climate forecast system: Part 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhik, S.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Mahakur, M.; Ganai, Malay; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Dudhia, J.

    2017-06-01

    The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) is being used for operational monsoon prediction over the Indian region. Recent studies indicate that the moist convective process in CFS is one of the major sources of uncertainty in monsoon predictions. In this study, the existing simple cloud microphysics of CFS is replaced by the six-class Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) single moment (WSM6) microphysical scheme. Additionally, a revised convective parameterization is employed to improve the performance of the model in simulating the boreal summer mean climate and intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region. The revised version of the model (CFSCR) exhibits a potential to improve shortcomings in the seasonal mean precipitation distribution relative to the standard CFS (CTRL), especially over the ISM region. Consistently, notable improvements are also evident in other observed ISM characteristics. These improvements are found to be associated with a better simulation of spatial and vertical distributions of cloud hydrometeors in CFSCR. A reasonable representation of the subgrid-scale convective parameterization along with cloud hydrometeors helps to improve the convective and large-scale precipitation distribution in the model. As a consequence, the simulated low-frequency boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) exhibits realistic propagation and the observed northwest-southeast rainband is well reproduced in CFSCR. Additionally, both the high and low-frequency BSISOs are better captured in CFSCR. The improvement of low and high-frequency BSISOs in CFSCR is shown to be related to a realistic phase relationship of clouds.Plain Language SummaryThis study attempts to demonstrate the impact of better representation of cloud processes on simulating the mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon in a revised version of CFSv2 called CFSCR. The CFSCR shows better fidelity in

  15. ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon relationship modulation associated with the anomalous northwest Pacific anticyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji-Won; An, Soon-Il; Jun, Sang-Yoon; Park, Hey-Jin; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2017-08-01

    Using observational datasets and numerical model experiments, the mechanism on the slowly varying change in the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is investigated. The decadal-window (11-, 15-, and 21-year) moving correlations show a significant change in the boreal wintertime ENSO-EAWM relationship between two sub-periods of 1976‒1992 and 1997‒2013. Such recent change in ENSO-EAWM relationship is mainly attributed to the changes in the intensity and zonal location of the anomalous lower-tropospheric northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWP-AC). NWP-AC commonly develops near the region of the Philippine Sea during the ENSO's peak phase and plays an important role of bridging the tropical convection and mid-latitude teleconnection. On one hand, the intensity of the NWP-AC is influenced by the interdecadal variation in a linkage between ENSO and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability, referring that a strong connection between the Pacific and Indian Oceans results in the strengthening of NWP-AC response to ENSO. On the other hand, the zonal displacement of the NWP-AC is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). That is, the tropical Pacific mean state (i.e., zonal SST gradient between climatologically warm western Pacific and cold eastern Pacific)—strengthened by either the negative PDO phase or the positive AMO phase—drives the anomalous ENSO-induced convection to be shifted to the west. With this westward shift, the zonal center of the NWP-AC also migrates westward over the Philippine Islands and exerts stronger connection between ENSO and EAWM. In contrast, the relaxed zonal SST contrast associated with either the positive PDO phase or the negative AMO phase tends to exhibit weaker ENSO-EAWM relationship via both of eastward shifted zonal centers of the anomalous ENSO-induced convection and the NWP-AC. Finally, a

  16. The rise of the Himalaya enforced the diversification of SE Asian ferns by altering the monsoon regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The rise of high mountain chains is widely seen as one of the factors driving rapid diversification of land plants and the formation of biodiversity hotspots. Supporting evidence was reported for the impact of the rapid rise of the Andean mountains but this hypothesis has so far been less explored for the impact of the “roof of the world”. The formation of the Himalaya, and especially the rise of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau in the recent 20 million years, altered the monsoon regimes that dominate the current climates of South East Asia. Here, we infer the hypothesis that the rise of Himalaya had a strong impact on the plant diversity in the biodiversity hotspot of the Southwest Chinese Mountains. Results Our analyses of the diversification pattern of the derived fern genus Lepisorus recovered evidence for changes in plant diversity that correlated with the strengthening of South East Asian monsoon. Southwest China or Southwest China and Japan was recovered as the putative area of origin of Lepisorus and enhancing monsoon regime were found to shape the early diversification of the genus as well as subsequent radiations during the late Miocene and Pliocene. Conclusions We report new evidence for a coincidence of plant diversification and changes of the climate caused by the uplift of the Himalaya. These results are discussed in the context of the impact of incomplete taxon sampling, uncertainty of divergence time estimates, and limitations of current methods used to assess diversification rates.

  17. The rise of the Himalaya enforced the diversification of SE Asian ferns by altering the monsoon regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Schneider, Harald; Zhang, Xian-Chun; Xiang, Qiao-Ping

    2012-11-09

    The rise of high mountain chains is widely seen as one of the factors driving rapid diversification of land plants and the formation of biodiversity hotspots. Supporting evidence was reported for the impact of the rapid rise of the Andean mountains but this hypothesis has so far been less explored for the impact of the "roof of the world". The formation of the Himalaya, and especially the rise of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in the recent 20 million years, altered the monsoon regimes that dominate the current climates of South East Asia. Here, we infer the hypothesis that the rise of Himalaya had a strong impact on the plant diversity in the biodiversity hotspot of the Southwest Chinese Mountains. Our analyses of the diversification pattern of the derived fern genus Lepisorus recovered evidence for changes in plant diversity that correlated with the strengthening of South East Asian monsoon. Southwest China or Southwest China and Japan was recovered as the putative area of origin of Lepisorus and enhancing monsoon regime were found to shape the early diversification of the genus as well as subsequent radiations during the late Miocene and Pliocene. We report new evidence for a coincidence of plant diversification and changes of the climate caused by the uplift of the Himalaya. These results are discussed in the context of the impact of incomplete taxon sampling, uncertainty of divergence time estimates, and limitations of current methods used to assess diversification rates.

  18. Intensified episodes of East Asian Winter Monsoon during the middle through late Holocene driven by North Atlantic cooling events: High-resolution lignin records from the South Yellow Sea, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Ting; Liu, Xiaojie; Ogg, James; Liang, Zhen; Xiang, Rong; Zhang, Xiaodong; Zhang, Dahai; Zhang, Cai; Liu, Qiaoling; Li, Xianguo

    2017-12-01

    The varying intensity of the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) governs the strength of the counter-clockwise surface circulation of the South Yellow Sea and the redistribution of sediment and terrestrial organic material that had accumulated on the shallow shelf during the summer season into the central part of that basin. We compiled a time series spanning about 6.3 ka of terrestrial lignin proxies from sediment core N02 from Central Yellow Sea Mud that has well-preserved high-resolution sedimentary records (24 yr/cm average spacing). The ;hydrodynamic sorting effect; driven by century-scale climate variation in the strength of the EAWM exerts the main underlying control on the variation of lignin proxies in marginal sea sediments, rather than paleovegetation variability in provenance region driven by the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Our lignin proxies data imply that North Atlantic climate forcing recorded by ice-rafted debris (;Bond cycles;) played a critical role in generating EAWM variability on these centennial timescales during the Holocene. These variations of lignin records are superimposed on general multi-thousand-year trends that appear to mirror the relative frequency and intensity of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results indicate that lignin can be adopted as an additional reliable proxy for paleoclimate evolution, at least in South Yellow Sea area.

  19. A detailed comparison of Asian Monsoon intensity and Greenland temperature during the Allerød and Younger Dryas events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dianbing; Wang, Yongjin; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Kong, Xinggong; Wang, Xianfeng; Wu, Jiangying; Chen, Shitao

    2008-08-01

    An annual layer-counted and 230Th-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope record from Qingtian Cave in Hubei province, central China, provides an Asian Monsoon (AM) history across the Allerød to Younger Dryas (YD) transition, with an average 2.5-year resolution. Seasonal δ18O profiles indicate that the calcite δ18O is a sensitive proxy for AM changes, and the close similarity between the Qingtian and other cave records from eastern China suggests a large-scale regional coherence of monsoonal precipitation δ18O variations associated with the temperature changes in high-northern latitudes. The annually-resolved chronology with a U-Th age uncertainty of less than 100 yr defines the timing, duration and transition of the early Allerød, the intra-Allerød cold period (IACP), the late Allerød, and the start of the YD. The 160-yr-long IACP, with two brief reversals, is clearly shown in both δ18O and lamina thickness records. The early and late Allerød, separated by the IACP, are characterized by several decadal to centennial cycles of δ18O variations, each punctuated by sub-cycles. These decadal to centennial monsoon variations correlate with the Greenland temperature changes, supporting a model simulation that the decadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) are coupled via atmospheric circulation under glacial boundary conditions, perhaps affecting tropical/subtropical monsoon changes. However, the monsoon transition between the late Allerød and YD lasted 380 yr, longer than the analogous Greenland temperature shift by at least 130 yr [Stuiver, M., Grootes, P.M., GISP2 oxygen isotope ratios. Quat. Res. 53 (2000) 277-284]. This implicates other links besides the direct link between Greenland and the AM, which is now well documented. One possibility is the influence by Southern Hemisphere climate via cross-equatorial air flow [An, Z.S., The history and variability of the East Asian paleomonsoon climate. Quat. Sci. Rev. 19 (2000) 171-187].

  20. Water vapor increase in the northern hemispheric lower stratosphere by the Asian monsoon anticyclone observed during TACTS campaign in 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolf, Christian; Vogel, Bärbel; Hoor, Peter; Günther, Gebhard; Krämer, Martina; Müller, Rolf; Müller, Stephan; Riese, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Water vapor plays a key role in determining the radiative balance in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and thus the climate of the Earth (Forster and Shine, 2002; Riese et al., 2012). Therefore a detailed knowledge about transport pathways and exchange processes between troposphere and stratosphere is required to understand the variability of water vapor in this region. The Asian monsoon anticyclone caused by deep convection over and India and east Asia is able to transport air masses from the troposphere into the nothern extra-tropical stratosphere (Müller et al. 2016, Vogel et al. 2016). These air masses contain pollution but also higher amounts of water vapor. An increase in water vapor of about 0.5 ppmv in the extra-tropical stratosphere above a potential temperature of 380 K was detected between August and September 2012 by in-situ instrumentation above the European northern hemisphere during the HALO aircraft mission TACTS. Here, we investigated the origin of this water vapor increase with the help of the 3D Lagrangian chemistry transport model CLaMS (McKenna et al., 2002). We can assign an origin of the moist air masses in the Asian region (North and South India and East China) with the help of model origin tracers. Additionally, back trajectories of these air masses with enriched water vapor are used to differentiate between transport from the Asia monsoon anticyclone and the upwelling of moister air in the tropics particularly from the Pacific and Southeast Asia.

  1. Intraseasonal to interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall and its influence on the Agricultural corps in mountainous Kashmir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Z.; Saeed, S.

    2012-04-01

    By using high resolution APHRODITE precipitation and meteorological station data (1961-2007) the present study examines the intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall over mountainous Kashmir and its influence on the agricultural crops such as Maiz and Wheat. It is found that an intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall can severely affect the crop production in the hilly areas of Kashmir. We found an increasing trend in the extreme precipitation events over Kashmir and adjacent areas in the recent years. The associated crop production shows significant decreasing trend especially over the hilly areas in Kashmir. The enhanced rainfall can result in the soil erosion that impose a major threat to sustainable agriculture in the mountainous areas of Kashmir. The heavy rainfall associated with the orographic uplifitng removes the uppermost fertile layer of soil, depleting fertility and leaving the soil in poor physical condition. This further causes severe deficiency of most important nutrients required for plant growth and crop yield. We further analysed the IPCC AR4 ECHAM5/MPIOM climate model simulations to examine the future interannual variability of monsoon rainfall over Kashmir and adjoining areas. In the following we analysed the transient run with a 1% per year increase in CO2 until reaching double concentrations and held constant thereafter. We found enhanced interannual variability of the summer monsoon rainfall (July-August) with increasing drought like conditions over Kashmir and adjoining northern parts of Pakistan in future climate. The enhanced interannual variability of precipitation in future could further affect severely growth of various agricultural crops in mountainous parts of Kashmir.

  2. Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2017-07-01

    This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

  3. Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

    KAUST Repository

    Attada, Raju

    2017-07-04

    This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003–2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

  4. Seasonal and Intraseasonal Variability of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the South Asian Monsoon Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Virts, Katrina S.; Houze, Robert A.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal and intraseasonal differences in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over South Asia are examined using A-Train satellites, a ground-based lightning network, and reanalysis fields. Pre-monsoon (April-May) MCSs occur primarily over Bangladesh and the eastern Bay of Bengal. During the monsoon (June-September), small MCSs occur over the Meghalaya Plateau and northeast Himalayan notch, while large and connected MCSs are most widespread over the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon MCSs produce less lightning and exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil reflectivity structures in CloudSat observations than do pre-monsoon MCSs. During the monsoon season, Bay of Bengal and Meghalaya Plateau MCSs vary with the 30-60 day northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation, while northeast Himalayan notch MCSs are associated with weak large-scale anomalies but locally enhanced CAPE. During intraseasonal active periods, a zone of enhanced large and connected MCSs, precipitation, and lightning extends from the northeastern Arabian Sea southeast over India and the Bay of Bengal, flanked by suppressed anomalies. Spatial variability is observed within this enhancement zone: lightning is most enhanced where MCSs are less enhanced, and vice versa. Reanalysis composites indicate that Bay of Bengal MCSs are associated with monsoon depressions, which are frequent during active monsoon periods, while Meghalaya Plateau MCSs are most frequent at the end of break periods, as anomalous southwesterly winds strengthen moist advection toward the terrain. Over both regions, MCSs exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil regions and less lightning when the large-scale environment is moister, and vice versa.

  5. Revisiting the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO links in the IPCC AR4 projections: A cautionary outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roxy, Mathew; Patil, Nitin; Aparna, K.; Ashok, Karumuri

    2013-05-01

    The climate change experiments under the fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely the twentieth century simulations (20C3M) and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, are revisited to study whether these models can reproduce the ENSO and ENSO Modoki patterns as the two important modes from statistical linear analysis as observed. The capability of the models in simulating realistic ENSO/ENSO Modoki teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon, and also the implications for the future are also explored. Results from the study indicate that only ~ 1/4th of the models from 20C3M capture either ENSO or ENSO Modoki pattern in JJAS. Of this 1/4th, only two models simulate both ENSO and ENSO Modoki as important modes. Again, out of these two, only one model simulates both ENSO and ENSO Modoki as important modes during both summer and winter. It is also shown that the two models that demonstrate ENSO Modoki as well as ENSO associated variance in both 20C3M and SRESA1B represent the links of the ISMR with ENSO reasonably in 20C3M, but indicate opposite type of impacts in SREA1B. With the limited skills of the models in reproducing the monsoon, the ENSO and ENSO Modoki, it is difficult to reconcile that the teleconnections of a tropical driver can change like that. All these indicate the challenges associated with the limitations of the models in reproducing the variability of the monsoons and ENSO flavors, not to speak of failing in capturing the potential impacts of global warming as they are expected to. More research in improving the current day simulations, improving model capacity to simulate better by improving the Green House Gases (GHG) and aerosols in the models are some of the important and immediate steps that are necessary.

  6. Relevance of Indian Summer Monsoon and its Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate Drivers for the Kharif Crop Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amat, Hemadri Bhusan; Karumuri, Ashok

    2017-12-01

    While the Indian agriculture has earlier been dependent on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), a multifold increase in irrigation and storage facilities raise a question whether the ISMR is still as relevant. We revisit this question using the latest observational climate datasets as well as the crop production data and find that the ISMR is still relevant for the Kharif crop production (KCP). In addition, in the recent changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific driver evolutions and frequency, particularly more frequent occurrence of the ENSO Modokis in place of the canonical ENSOs, we carry out a correlation analysis to estimate the impact of the various Indo-Pacific climate drivers on the rainfall of individual Indian states for the period 1998-2013, for which crop production data for the most productive Indian states, namely West Bengal, Odisha, United Andhra Pradesh (UAP), Haryana, Punjab, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are available. The results suggest that the KCP of the respective states are significantly correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall at the 95-99% confidence levels. Importantly, we find that the NINO 3.4 and ENSO Modoki indices have a statistically significant correlation with the KCP of most of the Indian states, particularly in states such as UAP and Karnataka, through induction of anomalous local convergence/divergence, well beyond the equatorial Indian Ocean. The KCP of districts in UAP also has a significant response to all the climate drivers, having implication for prediction of local crop yield.

  7. Decadal resolution record of Oman upwelling indicates solar forcing of the Indian summer monsoon (9-6 ka)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munz, Philipp M.; Steinke, Stephan; Böll, Anna; Lückge, Andreas; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Kucera, Michal; Schulz, Hartmut

    2017-05-01

    The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an important conveyor in the ocean-atmosphere coupled system on a trans-regional scale. Here we present a study of a sediment core from the northern Oman margin, revealing early to mid-Holocene ISM conditions on a near-20-year resolution. We assess multiple independent proxies indicative of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the upwelling season together with bottom-water conditions. We use geochemical parameters, transfer functions of planktic foraminiferal assemblages and Mg /  Ca palaeothermometry, and find evidence corroborating previous studies showing that upwelling intensity varies significantly in coherence with solar sunspot cycles. The dominant ˜ 80-90-year Gleissberg cycle apparently also affected bottom-water oxygen conditions. Although the interval from 8.4 to 5.8 ka BP is relatively short, the gradually decreasing trend in summer monsoon conditions was interrupted by short events of intensified ISM conditions. Results from both independent SST proxies are linked to phases of weaker oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) conditions and enhanced carbonate preservation. This indicates that atmospheric forcing was intimately linked to bottom-water properties and state of the OMZ on decadal timescales.

  8. Diversity of planktonic Ostracods (Crustacea: Ostracoda in the mixed layer of northeastern Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasmine Purushothaman

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Planktonic ostracods contribute significantly to the biomass of zooplankton in the Arabian Sea with an unusually high density due to swarming.  However, due to the small size, their abundance is often underestimated.  In this paper, the diversity of planktonic ostracods in the mixed layer depth of the northeastern Arabian Sea in relation to environmental parameters during the summer monsoon is presented.  The mean abundance in the mixed layer depth was very high.  About 26 species belonging to 17 genera representing two families were recognized.  Out of this, 25 species belonged to (3 sub families, 16 genera the order Myodocopa and one to the order Myodocopida.  The dominant species were Cypridina dentata, Euconchoecia aculeata, Conchoecia subarcuata and Orthoconchoecia atlantica.  Cypridina dentata and Euconchoecia aculeata contributed to about 89% of the total abundance.  The results suggest that the distribution and diversity of ostracods were very much influenced by the hydrographic conditions of the Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon

  9. Climatic differences and similarities between Indian and East Asian Monsoon regions of China over the last millennium: a perspective based mainly on stalagmite records.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Tan

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Cave sediments, especially stalagmites, have been providing absolute dated climate records that can extend from the present to over 500,000 years ago. Based on the reconstructed temperature time series, a comprehensive overview of the climatic differences and similarities between the Indian and the East Asian Monsoon regions of China over the last millennium is presented. Evidence from accurately dated and high-resolution records including stalagmites, ice cores and tree rings show that there was a “Medieval Warm Period” (around 1000 to 1400 AD in north and east China where climate is dominated by the East Asian monsoon; whilst no such interval is evident in the records including stalagmites and ice cores from southwest China where climate is dominated by the Indian monsoon. However, both regions underwent a significant cooling during the Little Ice Age (around the mid 1500s to the 1800s. The result achieved here may allow a possibility of distinguishing the boundary between Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon regions over the last millennium with increase of climate records, especially stalagmites that are mostly suitable for accurate U/Th dating and/or lamina counting.

  10. The impacts of the summer plateau monsoon over the Tibetan Plateau on the rainfall in the Tarim Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yong; Huang, Anning; Zhou, Yang; Yang, Qing

    2016-10-01

    The impacts of the summer plateau monsoon (PM) over the Tibetan Plateau on summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin in northwest China are investigated, based on the observed rainfall data at 34 stations and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1961 to 2007. Results showed that the PM is well correlated to the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin. Process analysis shows that strong PM corresponds to an anomalous cyclone over the Tibetan Plateau in the middle troposphere and an anomalous anticyclone in the upper troposphere over northwest part of Tibetan Plateau. They result in cold air moving from high latitudes into Central Asia over the western part of Tibetan Plateau. The concurrences of the cooling in the middle-upper troposphere over Central Asia leads to an anomalous cyclone over Central Asia at 500 hPa and the anomalous descending motions prevailing over the cooling region. Associated with this anomaly, there are enhanced southerly winds and corresponding ascending motion over the Tarim Basin located in the east of the cooling region. These processes lead to more summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin.

  11. Decadal variability in snow depth anomaly over Eurasia and its association with all India summer monsoon rainfall and seasonal circulations

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, G P

    2003-01-01

    The Historical Soviet Daily Snow Depth (HSDSD) version II data set has been used in the computation of winter and spring snow depth anomalies over west (25 deg. E to 70 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) and east (70 deg. E to 160 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) Eurasia. It is noticed that winter snow depth anomaly over east Eurasia is positively correlated while west Eurasia is negatively correlated with subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The DJF snow depth anomaly shows highest and inverse correlation coefficient (CC) with ISMR over a large area of west Eurasia in a recent period of study i.e. 1975-1995. On the basis of standardised winter (mean of December, January and February) snow depth anomaly over west Eurasia, the years 1966, 1968, 1979 and 1986 are identified as high snow years and the years 1961 and 1975 as low snow years. The characteristics of seasonal monsoon circulation features have been studied in detail during contrasting years of less (more) snow depth in winter/spring seasons f...

  12. Statistical analysis and a case study of tropical cyclones that trigger the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huangfu, Jingliang; Huang, Ronghui; Chen, Wen

    2017-10-06

    This paper addresses whether a tropical cyclone can trigger the onset of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SM). We conducted a statistical analysis of tropical cyclones (TCs) generated over the western North Pacific (WNP) between late-April and May. The results showed that there were cases in which TCs were generated before the onset of the SCSSM, accounting for 43.2% of the TCs generated during this season. This study examined a representative case, Super Typhoon Chanchu (0601), which was determined to be influential in the onset of the SCSSM. With a northwestward track, Chanchu brought strong convection and westerly winds to the SCS on 12 May, which triggered the intrusion of the southwesterly winds from the Bay of Bengal and the eastward retreat of the western Pacific subtropical high. Super Typhoon Chanchu provides an example in which a TC triggered the onset of the SCSSM. The negative correlation between the onset date of the SCSSM and the number of TCs generated over the WNP used to be interpreted as the influence of the monsoon trough on TC genesis. This work provides a supplementary illustration that this relationship also includes the impact of TCs on the onset of the SCSSM.

  13. Future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes over India with statistical downscaling and its consistency with observed characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shashikanth, Kulkarni; Ghosh, Subimal; H, Vittal; Karmakar, Subhankar

    2017-03-01

    Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes and their changing characteristics under global warming have remained a potential area of research and a topic of scientific debate over the last decade. This partially attributes to multiple definitions of extremes reported in the past studies and poor understanding of the changing processes associated with extremes. The later one results into poor simulation of extremes by coarse resolution General Circulation Models under increased greenhouse gas emission which further deteriorates due to inadequate representation of monsoon processes in the models. Here we use transfer function based statistical downscaling model with non-parametric kernel regression for the projection of extremes and find such conventional regional modeling fails to simulate rainfall extremes over India. In this conjuncture, we modify the downscaling algorithm by applying a robust regression to the gridded extreme rainfall events. We observe, inclusion of robust regression to the downscaling algorithm improves the historical simulation of rainfall extremes at a 0.25° spatial resolution, as evaluated based on classical extreme value theory methods, viz., block maxima and peak over threshold. The future projections of extremes during 2081-2100, obtained with the developed algorithm show no change to slight increase in the spatial mean of extremes with dominance of spatial heterogeneity. These changing characteristics in future are consistent with the observed recent changes in extremes over India. The proposed methodology will be useful for assessing the impacts of climate change on extremes; specifically while spatially mapping the risk to rainfall extremes over India.

  14. Characteristics of Water Budget Components in Paddy Rice Field under the Asian Monsoon Climate: Application of HSPF-Paddy Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Jin Kim

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The HSPF-Paddy model was applied to the Bochung watershed in Korea to compare water budget components by the land use types under the Asian monsoon climate. The calibration of HSPF-Paddy during 1992–2001 with PEST, a package program to optimize HSPF, and validation during 1985–1991 were carried out. The model efficiencies for monthly stream flow are 0.85 for calibration and 0.84 for validation. The simulation of annual mean runoff met the criteria of water budget analysis with the acceptable error level (less than 10 percent mean error. The simulation of the movement of water from paddy rice field to watershed was successful, and application of HSPF-Paddy coupled with PEST was able to improve accuracy of model simulation with reduced time and efforts for model calibration. The results of water budget analysis show that most of the outflow (86% for the urban area occurred through surface runoff, showing the highest rate among the land use types compared. Significant amounts of water are irrigated to paddy rice fields, and the runoff depth as well as evapotranspiration from paddy rice field is higher than other land use types. Hydrological characteristic of paddy rice field is that most of water movement occurred at the surface area, resulting from the low infiltration rate and manning’s coefficient, as well as ponded water throughout the growing season. Major impact on input and output of water were precipitation and runoff, respectively, influenced by an Asian monsoon climate.

  15. Influences of the climate changes and pollutants over the Asian Monsoon/Tibetan Plateau region on transport of ice, aerosols and water vapor to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, R.; Zhang, K.; Chakraborty, S.

    2013-12-01

    The Asian monsoon and Tibetan Plateau (TP) region plays a key role in determining the summer atmospheric diabatic heating and circulation of the northern hemisphere and global troposphere-to-stratosphere transport. This region has experienced significant changes of surface temperature, convection and winds. To explore how these climatic changes, combining with high level of pollutions from industrial and biomass burning emissions, and dust from the upwind direction, would influence transport of ice and aerosols to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) of that region, and water vapor to the global stratosphere, we have carried out the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) simulations and analyzed several reanalysis products and a suite of satellite datasets. The results suggest that the surface warming and increase of convection over the TP appear to dominate the water vapor variability over the UT/LS in boreal summer, whereas tropical sea surface temperature anomalies, especially that related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominate the UL/LS water vapor variability in winter. In addition, anomalous warmer surface temperature over the TP in winter induces anomalous planetary wave activity over Pacific, which in turn, influences the three-dimensional Brewer-Dobson circulation, and UT/LS water vapor in both tropics and polar region. Our analysis of combined A-train satellites and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project Convective tracking data suggests that an increase of aerosol optical depth appears to increase the cloud ice-liquid water ratio, increase ice water content of the anvil clouds, which in turn, may increase the transport of aerosols to the UT/LS of the Asian monsoon/TP region. These effects can work in concert with surface warming of the TP and amplify their influence on the global troposphere-to-stratosphere water vapor transport during the boreal summer

  16. Past 100 Ky surface salinity-gradient response in the eastern Arabian Sea to the summer monsoon variation recorded by delta super(18)O of G. sacculifer

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chodankar, A.R.; Banakar, V.K.; Oba, T.

    flux to the Bay of Bengal and hence summer monsoon intensity. The north-south contrast in the sea level corrected (residual)-delta sup(18) O sub(G. sacculifer) can be interpreted as a measure of surface salinity-contrast between those two locations...

  17. Orbital frequencies in radiolarian assemblages of the central Indian Ocean: implications on the Indian summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gupta, S.M.

    and onboard ship-logistics. The paper is dedicated to my father late Shri Kanhaiya Lal Gupta. This is the National Insti- tute of Oceanography, Goa, India, Contribution No. 3799. References Berger, A.L., 1977. Support for the astronomical theory of climatic... positive and negative relation- ships (Table 2), respectively, with two distinct sur- face-salinity water masses during the July^August monsoonal months in the central Indian Ocean. The diagonal salinity contrast in the central Indi- an Ocean (Wyrtki, 1971...

  18. Southeast Asian Monsoon variability may have assisted the rise and fall of the Khmer Empire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kweku Kyei Afrifa, Yamoah; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Chawchai, Sakonvan; Wohlfarth, Barbara; Smittenberg, Rienk

    2014-05-01

    Climate shifts with links to human migration and social change have contributed to the global rise and fall of ancient civilizations (Weiss et al 2001; Haug et al. 2003). At the same time, these civilizations also tend to influence their environment significantly (Buckley et. al, 2010). Here we use δ13C and δD data of long-chained n-alkanes to unravel the drivers of monsoon intensity and their potential effects on the Angkor civilization. Strong Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability from the Indo Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), coupled to dramatic changes in the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is suggested as a potential driver of the monsoon variability in Southeast Asia over the last two millennia. Our dataset provides independent evidence that past vegetation in Southeast Asia was greatly influenced by the activities of the Angkor people at about AD 834 to 1431 when agricultural activities and extensive hydrological systems may have contributed immensely to change the vegetation type. The massive agricultural boom as a result of increase in monsoon intensity, along with an extensive hydrological system, may have contributed significantly to the rise of the Khmer Empire. However, a prolonged drought as a result of the gradual weakening of the monsoon intensity over time (AD 1375-2000) may have caused the water management system to fail thus contributing significantly to the demise of the Khmer empire. References B. M. Buckley et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107, 6748 (2010). G. H. Haug et al., Science 299, 1731 (2003). H. Weiss, R. S. Bradley, Science 291, 609 (2001).

  19. Influence of ENSO on Regional Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation—Local Atmospheric Influences or Remote Influence from Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrani Roy

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Using CMIP5 model outputs in different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases, this work investigates the indicator that could be used as an Index to characterise regional Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM precipitation. Dividing the Indian subcontinent into five arbitrarily chosen regions, viz. Central North East (CNE (18°N–31°N, 86°E–75°E, Hilly (H (28°N–38°N, 85°E–70°E, North West (NW (21°N–31°N, 79°E–67°E, North East (NE (21°N–31°N, 86°E–97°E and Southern India (S (18°N–7°N, 73°E–85°E, local wind field and remote influences from the tropical Pacific are considered to improve understanding of regional monsoon rainfall. Results are also compared with observations/reanalysis data to pinpoint areas of shortcomings and agreements. Model results suggest that regional wind velocity, viz. meridional wind component (V at 850 mb level (V850 and zonal component at 200 mb (U200 and 850 mb (U850 can yield better estimation of local precipitation in regions CNE, H and NW, agreeing well with earlier proposed monsoon Indices. Such observations are independent of different subcategories of ENSO phases and models show good correspondence with observations. Analyses with V at 200 mb (V200 indicate circulation of the upper branch of Hadley cells in regions CNE and S, though suggest the best agreement among models in comparison with other fields, but there are some deviations from observations, indicating a missing mechanism in the models. Using models, this study identified the best parameter in different regions that could be used for the regional monsoon Index, irrespective of various ENSO subcategories; for CNE it is the U200, for H it is U200 and U850, and for NW it is U850. The current analysis, however, fails to indicate anything clearly about the NE region. When focusing on the remote influence from the eastern Pacific region, it is found that atmospheric contribution to regional ISM precipitation fails to indicate

  20. Dirtier Air from a Weaker Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Mian

    2012-01-01

    The level of air pollution in China has much increased in the past decades, causing serious health problems. Among the main pollutants are aerosols, also known as particulate matter: tiny, invisible particles that are suspended in the air. These particles contribute substantially to premature mortality associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer1. The increase of the aerosol level in China has been commonly attributed to the fast rise in pollutant emissions from the rapid economic development in the region. However, writing in Geophysical Research Letters, Jianlei Zhu and colleagues2 tell a different side of the story: using a chemical transport model and observation data, they show that the decadal scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon has also contributed to the increase of aerosol concentrations in China. The life cycle of atmospheric aerosols starts with its emission or formation in the atmosphere. Some aerosol components such as dust, soot and sea salt are emitted directly as particles to the atmosphere, but others are formed there by way of photochemical reactions. For example, sulphate and nitrate aerosols are produced from their respective precursor gases, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Aerosol particles can be transported away from their source locations by winds or vertical motion of the air. Eventually, they are removed from the atmosphere by means of dry deposition and wet scavenging by precipitation. Measurements generally show that aerosol concentrations over Asia are lowest during the summer monsoon season3, because intense rainfall efficiently removes them from the air. The East Asian summer monsoon extends over subtropics and mid-latitudes. Its rainfall tends to concentrate in rain belts that stretch out for many thousands of kilometres and affect China, Korea, Japan and the surrounding area. Observations suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation have been in decline since the 1970s4. In

  1. Simulation of boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall using CFSV2_SSiB model: sensitivity to Land Use Land Cover (LULC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilukoti, N.; Xue, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The land surface play a vital role in determining the surface energy budget, accurate representation of land use and land cover (LULC) is necessary to improve forecast. In this study, we have investigated the influence of surface vegetation maps with different LULC on simulating the boreal summer monsoon rainfall. Using a National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) model coupled with Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) model, two experiments were conducted: one with old vegetation map and one with new vegetation map. The significant differences between new and old vegetation map were in semi-arid and arid areas. For example, in old map Tibetan plateau classified as desert, which is not appropriate, while in new map it was classified as grasslands or shrubs with bare soil. Old map classified the Sahara desert as a bare soil and shrubs with bare soil, whereas in new map it was classified as bare ground. In addition to central Asia and the Sahara desert, in new vegetation map, Europe had more cropped area and India's vegetation cover was changed from crops and forests to wooded grassland and small areas of grassland and shrubs. The simulated surface air temperature with new map shows a significant improvement over Asia, South Africa, and northern America by some 1 to 2ºC and 2 to 3ºC over north east China and these are consistent with the reduced rainfall biases over Africa, near Somali coast, north east India, Bangladesh, east China sea, eastern Pacific and northern USA. Over Indian continent and bay of Bengal dry rainfall anomalies that is the only area showing large dry rainfall bias, however, they were unchanged with new map simulation. Overall the CFSv2(coupled with SSiB) model with new vegetation map show a promising result in improving the monsoon forecast by improving the Land -Atmosphere interactions. To compare with the LULC forcing, experiment was conducted using the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations

  2. Decoupled warming and monsoon precipitation in East Asia over the last deglaciation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterse, F.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/371172314; Prins, M.A.; Beets, C.J.; Troelstra, S.R.; Zheng, H.; Gu, Z.; Schouten, S.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/137124929; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/07401370X

    2011-01-01

    Our understanding of the continental climate development in East Asia is mainly based on loess–paleosol sequences and summer monsoon precipitation reconstructions based on oxygen isotopes (δ18O) of stalagmites from several Chinese caves. Based on these records, it is thought that East Asian Summer

  3. Precipitation stable isotope records from the northern Hengduan Mountains in China capture signals of the winter India-Burma Trough and the Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wusheng; Tian, Lide; Yao, Tandong; Xu, Baiqing; Wei, Feili; Ma, Yaoming; Zhu, Haifeng; Luo, Lun; Qu, Dongmei

    2017-11-01

    This project reports results of the first precipitation stable isotope (δ18 O and δD) time series produced for Qamdo in the northern Hengduan Mountains in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The data showed that the fluctuations of precipitation stable isotopes at Qamdo during the different seasons revealed various moisture sources. The westerlies and local recycling moisture dominated at the study area before the pre-monsoon and after the post-monsoon seasons, which resulted in similar trends of both precipitation stable isotopes and temperature. The marine moisture was transported to the northern Hengduan Mountains by the winter India-Burma Trough combined with convection. Consequently, stable isotopes in subsequent precipitation were occasionally observed to decrease suddenly. However, δ18 O and δD values of precipitation at Qamdo were lower during the monsoon period and the duration of those low values was longer because of the effects of the Indian Summer Monsoon and the strengthening convection. Our findings indicate that the effects of seasonal precipitation differences caused by various climate systems, including the winter India-Burma Trough and Indian Summer Monsoon, need to be considered when attempting to interpret tree-ring and ice core records for the Hengduan Mountains.

  4. Structure of the marine boundary layer over north western Indian Ocean during 1983 summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Sadhuram, Y.; Michael, G.S.; Rao, L.V.G.

    . I000. 700 750 800 850, g00- 950. IO00. 6-8-83 O300 Hrs. 52" E e----o T ~---~ q o----o 0 e----o ev o---e Oe •\\ 6-8-83 1200 Hrs. 52" E 20-8- 83 1200 Hrs. 49" E 21-8-83 1200 Hrs. 52" E a~ ~" 12 18 24 30 , r? '% / Z 3~0 ~0... is known about the structure of the lower troposphere (up to 3 km) over the north Indian Ocean during the active monsoon conditions 27-7- 8:5 27-7-85 28-7-8:5 0000 Hrs. 1200 Hrs. 1200 Hrs. 68 e E 67 °E 63* E o~o a., o---.e T 700 ~ ~ ~' 800 ~ N 85o...

  5. A daytime climatological distribution of high opaque ice cloud classes over the Indian summer monsoon region observed from 25-year AVHRR data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Devasthale

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A daytime climatological spatio-temporal distribution of high opaque ice cloud (HOIC classes over the Indian subcontinent (0–40° N, 60° E–100° E is presented using 25-year data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs for the summer monsoon months. The HOICs are important for regional radiative balance, precipitation and troposphere-stratosphere exchange. In this study, HOICs are sub-divided into three classes based on their cloud top brightness temperatures (BT. Class I represents very deep convection (BT<220 K. Class II represents deep convection (220 K<=BT<233 K and Class III background convection (233 K<=BT<253 K. Apart from presenting finest spatial resolution (0.1×0.1 degrees and long-term climatology of such cloud classes from AVHRRs to date, this study for the first time illustrates on (1 how these three cloud classes are climatologically distributed during monsoon months, and (2 how their distribution changes during active and break monsoon conditions. It is also investigated that how many deep convective clouds reach the tropopause layer during individual monsoon months. It is seen that Class I and Class II clouds dominate the Indian subcontinent during monsoon. The movement of monsoon over continent is very well reflected in these cloud classes. During monsoon breaks strong suppression of convective activity is observed over the Arabian Sea and the western coast of India. On the other hand, the presence of such convective activity is crucial for active monsoon conditions and all-India rainfall. It is found that a significant fraction of HOICs (3–5% reach the tropopause layer over the Bay of Bengal during June and over the north and northeast India during July and August. Many cases are observed when clouds penetrate the tropopause layer and reach the lower stratosphere. Such cases mostly occur during June compared to the other months.

  6. Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhu, Amita; Oh, Jaiho; Kim, In-won; Kripalani, R. H.; Mitra, A. K.; Pandithurai, G.

    2017-10-01

    This observational study during the 29-year period from 1979 to 2007 evaluates the potential role of Eurasian snow in modulating the North East-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall with a lead time of almost 6 months. This link is manifested by the changes in high-latitude atmospheric winter snow variability over Eurasia associated with Arctic Oscillation (AO). Excessive wintertime Eurasian snow leads to an anomalous cooling of the overlying atmosphere and is associated with the negative mode of AO, inducing a meridional wave-train descending over the tropical north Atlantic and is associated with cooling of this region. Once the cold anomalies are established over the tropical Atlantic, it persists up to the following summer leading to an anomalous zonal wave-train further inducing a descending branch over NE-India resulting in weak summer monsoon rainfall.

  7. Summer monsoon onset-induced changes of autotrophic pico- and nanoplankton in the largest monsoonal estuary along the west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mohan, A.P.; Jyothibabu, R.; Jagadeesan, L.; Lallu, K.R.; Karnan, C.

    and faster flushing of the CBW during the southwest monsoon replaced the euhaline/mesohaline strain of Synechococcus with an oligohaline/limnohaline strain. Epifluorescence microscopy analyses showed that, among the two strains of Synechococcus...

  8. Transient coupling relationships of the Holocene Australian monsoon

    CERN Document Server

    McRobie, Fiona H; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz

    2015-01-01

    The modern-day northwest Australian summer monsoon is dynamically coupled to other regional monsoon systems and inflows from the Indian Ocean, however, the nature of these relationships over longer time scales is uncertain. Previous attempts to evaluate how proxy records from the Indonesian-Australian monsoon region correspond to other records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, as well as to El Ni\\~no-related proxy records, has been qualitative, relying on `curve-fitting' methods. Here, we seek a quantitative approach for identifying coupling relationships between paleoclimate proxy records, employing statistical techniques to compute the interdependence of two paleoclimate time series. We verify the use of complex networks to identify coupling relationships between modern climate indices which correspond to physically-based mechanisms. This method is then extended to a set of paleoclimate proxy records from the Asian, Australasian and South American regions spanning the past 9,000 years. The res...

  9. The modulation of Tibetan Plateau heating on the multi-scale northernmost margin activity of East Asia summer monsoon in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Liu, Chen; Chen, Haishan

    2018-02-01

    The northernmost margin of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) could well reflect wet/dry climate variability in the EASM marginal zone (northern China). The study shows that EASM occurs in northern China from Meiyu period to midsummer, and it is also the advancing period of the northern margin of EASM (NMEASM) before the 43rd pentad. NMEASM activity exhibits multi-scale variability, at cycles of 2-3-yr, 4-6-yr and 9-12-yr, which respond not only to EASM intensity but also to westerly circulation anomaly, exhibiting the mid-latitude Eurasian waves and the high-latitude Eurasian teleconnection (EU) patterns. The positive anomalies of Silk Road pattern and EU pattern in recent two decades contribute to the enhanced west-ridge and east-trough anomaly around 120°E over northern China, leading to divergence of moisture flux and north wind anomaly, which is helpful for southward western pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and southward NMEASM. Negative Eurasian pattern along subtropical Jet leads to anticyclone anomaly over south of the Yangtze River, deep trough and north wind anomaly along the west coast of the subtropical Pacific, contributing to southward WPSH and NMEASM at the cycle of 4-6-yr. Remote forcing sources of these anomalous Eurasian waves include North Europe, north of Caspian Sea, Central Asia, Tibetan Plateau and the west of Lake Baikal; the south of Lake Baikal is a local forcing region. The Tibetan Plateau heating and snow cover could modulate Eurasian wave pattern at multi-scale, which could be used as prediction reference of multi-scale NMEASM.

  10. Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

    KAUST Repository

    Sagalgile, Archana P.

    2017-10-26

    This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

  11. Synoptic Patterns Related to Summer Monsoon Floods on the Mumbai Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomazzi, M.; Entekhabi, D.; Roth, G.; Rudari, R.

    2009-09-01

    The Indian Western Coast is a relatively narrow strip (width generally lower than 100 km) bounded to the West by the North Indian Ocean and to the East by the Western Ghats mountain range. During the South Asia Monsoon (SAM) season, conventionally defined between June 1 and September 30, this part of India is one of the most highly affected by extreme rainfall events, with a cumulative rainfall height that may exceed 4000 mm. The combination of quite short and steep rivers and high intensity precipitation events makes this area particularly prone to flash floods. This study focuses on the Mumbai Region, because of its huge number of inhabitants (around 20 millions people) and its great economic importance for India. To provide a tool for damage-causing floods’ forecast in the selected area, extreme rainfall events were analyzed and antecedent synoptic patterns were detected. First results show a pretty clear signal for either SLP and SST on the Arabian Sea, while horizontal winds have different (but still precise) patterns depending on the altitude. Ongoing more detailed analyses are supposed to refine these early upshots.

  12. Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region- A project of GRENE-ei programs in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizoguchi, M.; Matsumoto, J.; Takahashi, H. G.; Tanaka, K.; Kuwagata, T.

    2015-12-01

    It is important to predict climate change correctly in regional scale and to build adaptation measures and mitigation measures in the Asian monsoon region where more than 60 % of the world's population are living. The reliability of climate change prediction model is evaluated by the reproducibility of past climate in general. However, because there are many developing countries in the Asian monsoon region, adequate documentations of past climate which are needed to evaluate the climate reproducibility have not been prepared. In addition, at present it is difficult to get information on wide-area agricultural meteorological data which affect the growth of agricultural crops when considering the impact on agriculture of climate. Therefore, we have started a research project entitled "Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region (CAAM)" under the research framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) for the Japanese fiscal years from 2011 to 2015 supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). This project aims to improve the reliability of future climate prediction and to develop the information platform which will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture against the predicted climatic changes in Asian monsoon regions. What is GRENE?Based on the new growth strategy which was approved by the Cabinet of Japan in June 2010, Green Network of Excellence program (GRENE) has started under MEXT from FY 2011. The objectives of this program are that the domestic leading universities work together strategically and promote a comprehensive human resource development and research of the highest level in the world while sharing research resources and research goals. In the field of environmental information, it is required that universities and research institutions, which are working on issues such as adaptation to climate change, cooperate to

  13. Sensitivity of Asian and African climate to variations in seasonal insolation, glacial ice cover, sea surface temperature, and Asian orography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demenocal, Peter B.; Rind, David

    1993-01-01

    A general circulation model was used to investigate the sensitivity of Asian and African climate to prescribed changes in boundary conditions with the objective of identifying the relative importance of individual high-latitude glacial boundary conditions on seasonal climate and providing a physical basis for interpreting the paleoclimate record. The circulation model is described and results are presented. Insolation forcing increased summer Asian monsoon winds, while increased high-latitude ice cover strengthened winter Asian trade winds causing decreased precipitation. These factors had little effect on African climate. Cooler North Atlantic sea surface temperatures enhanced winter trade winds over North Africa, southern Asian climate was relatively unaffected. Reducing Asian orography enhanced Asian winter circulation while decreasing the summer monsoon. These model results suggest that African and southern Asian climate respond differently to separate elements of high-latitude climate variability.

  14. Did opening of the South China Sea impact development of the Asian Monsoon? Results from Oligocene microfossils, IODP Site U1435, northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulhanek, Denise K.; Su, Xin; Li, Qianyu; Gregory, Mitch; Warny, Sophie; Clift, Peter D.

    2016-04-01

    Development of the Asian Monsoon is linked to uplift of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau in the Cenozoic, with good evidence for a strong monsoon system by the late Oligocene to early Miocene (e.g., Guo et al., 2002; Clift et al., 2008). However, Licht et al. (2014) suggested the presence of an Asian Monsoon in the late Eocene. Recent scientific ocean drilling in the Indian Ocean and surrounding marginal seas gives us the opportunity to test this hypothesis with newly recovered Paleogene sediment cores. International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 349 to the South China Sea recovered a 30 m section of primarily lower Oligocene nannofossil-rich claystone at Site U1435, located near the northern continent/ocean boundary. A thick sandstone unit devoid of typical marine microfossils underlies the marine claystone. The sandstone is interpreted as a deltaic or restricted marine deposit and is dated to the Eocene based on the presence of organic-walled palynomorphs, suggesting that a hiatus of several million years likely separates the sandstone below from the Oligocene marine claystone. This hiatus is interpreted as the breakup unconformity, with paleodepths in the South China Sea increasing during the Oligocene. Thus, this claystone should record if opening of the South China Sea during the early Oligocene influenced development of the Asian Monsoon. Combined calcareous nannofossil and planktonic foraminifer biostratigraphy indicates that the 30 m section is primarily early Oligocene in age (~33.5-30 Ma) and was deposited on the middle slope, with paleodepths >500 m. Stable oxygen isotopes from planktonic foraminifers become heavier up-hole, suggestive of cooling/deepening in the region, whereas carbon isotopes record variable conditions with no distinct maxima or minima. Calcareous nannoplankton primarily live in the upper 50 m of the ocean and are sensitive to sea-surface temperature and nutrient conditions, thus making them useful recorders of paleoceanographic

  15. Explaining regionally coherent trends in daily rainfall extremes during the Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, M.; Boos, W. R.; Huybers, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme rainfall events during the Indian monsoon can have deleterious effects on the Indian economy, where an estimated two-thirds of the population is employed in the agricultural sector. With increasing mean temperature, rainfall variability is also expected to change. Here, we identify regionally coherent patterns of 1980-2015 time trends for 95th-99th percentile daily JJAS rainfall events over the Indian subcontinent. Using a 0.25 by 0.25 degree resolution rainfall data-set that incorporates nearly 7000 weather stations, at least three times as many as the 1 degree by 1 degree IMD Pune data-set, we find that time-trends over the western slope of the Western Ghats change from negative to positive with higher elevation, whereas previous work using a coarser network of stations have found overall declines. Less apparent in the coarser data but present in the finer resolution data-set are marked declines in extremes over the Indo-Gangetic Plains. This may be linked to declining average rainfall over northeastern central India, which has been attributed to aerosols through modeling studies. However, consistency in trends between both fine and coarse resolution data-sets is seen in the increases in extremes across North Central India. Extreme events in each of three regions-North Central India, the Western Ghats, and interior Peninsular India-can be connected with low pressure systems and orographic precipitation, possibly allowing for inferences about the reasons for observed trends. Understanding temporal changes in these phenomena may assist in future prediction of local extreme daily rainfall events.

  16. A reconstructed dynamic Indian monsoon index extended back to 1880

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Brönnimann, Stefan; Griesser, Thomas; Fischer, Andreas M.; Zou, Liwei

    2010-03-01

    The authors present a reconstruction of summer (June-July-August) mean dynamic Indian monsoon index (DIMI) back to 1880 based on a large number of historical surface observation data as well as information from the upper air data. The reconstruction shows a satisfying skill in terms of both the value of reduction of error and an evaluation against other independent monsoon indices. The skill of reconstruction increases over time with more predictor data (in particular upper-level data) becoming available. A comparison with the observed all Indian summer monsoon rainfall index (AIRI) shows a high consistence in both inter-decadal and inter-annual variability. The reconstruction shows stronger than normal monsoon during the 1880s, 1915-1925 (around 1920) and 1930-1945 (around 1940) as the AIRI. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—monsoon relationship is reasonably captured in the reconstruction. Powers concentrating within quasi-biennial band stand out in the reconstruction as well as in the AIRI. A comparison of the reconstruction against an atmospheric general circulation model simulation with specified SST and external forcing agents spanning 1901-1999 indicates a slightly higher reproducibility of monsoon circulation than monsoon rainfall in terms of interannual variability. The relationship between the Asian continent warming and the ENSO-monsoon connection is also discussed by using the new dynamic index.

  17. Anthropogenic aerosol effects on East Asian winter monsoon: The role of black carbon-induced Tibetan Plateau warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yiquan; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Liu, Xiaohong; Yang, Dejian; Sun, Xuguang; Wang, Minghuai; Ding, Aijun; Wang, Tijian; Fu, Congbin

    2017-06-01

    This study investigates anthropogenic aerosol effects on East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) with Community Atmospheric Model version 5. In winter, the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth is the largest over southern East Asia and adjacent oceans. The associated EAWM change, however, is the most significant in northern East Asia, which is characterized by a significant surface cooling in northern East Asia and an acceleration of the jet stream around 40°N, indicating an intensification of the EAWM northern mode. Such an intensification is attributed to anthropogenic black carbon (BC)-induced Tibetan Plateau (TP) warming. The BC is mostly transported from northern South Asia by wintertime westerly and southwesterly and then deposited on snow, giving rise to a reduction of surface albedo and an increase of surface air temperature via the snow-albedo feedback. The TP warming increases meridional temperature gradient and lower tropospheric baroclinicity over northern East Asia, leading to the jet stream acceleration around 40°N and the westward shift of East Asian major trough via the transient eddy-mean flow feedback. Such upper tropospheric pattern favors more cold air outbreak, leading to a large surface cooling in northern East Asia. In southern East Asia, the effect of nonabsorbing aerosols is dominant. The solar flux at surface is significantly reduced directly by scattering of nonabsorbing aerosols and indirectly by intensification of short wave cloud forcing. Accordingly, the surface air temperature in southern East Asia is reduced. The precipitation is also significantly reduced in South China and Indo-China Peninsula, where the aerosol indirect effect is the largest.

  18. South Asian climate change at the end of urban Harappan (Indus valley) civilization and mechanisms of Holocene monsoon variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staubwasser, M.; Sirocko, F.; Erlenkeuser, H.; Grootes, P. M.; Segl, M.

    2003-04-01

    Planktonic oxygen isotope ratios from the well-dated laminated sediment core 63KA off the river Indus delta are presented. The record reveals significant climate changes in the south Asian monsoon system throughout the Holocene. The most prominent event of the early-mid Holocene occurred after 8.4 ka BP and is within dating error of the GISP/GRIP event centered at 8.2 ka BP. The late Holocene is generally more variable and the largest change of the entire Holocene occurred at 4.2 ka BP. This event is concordant with the end of urban Harappan civilization in the Indus valley. Opposing isotopic trends across the northern Arabian Sea surface indicate a reduction in Indus river discharge at that time. Consequently, sustained drought may have initiated the archaeologically recorded interval of southeastward habitat tracking within the Harappan cultural domain. The hemispheric significance of the 4.2 ka BP event is evident from concordant climate change in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. The remainder of the late Holocene shows drought cycles of approximately 700 years that are coherent with the evolution of cosmogenic radiocarbon production rates in the atmosphere. This suggests that solar variability is one fundamental cause behind late Holocene rainfall changes over south Asia.

  19. External forcing as a source for the observed multi-decadal relation between AMV and the Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svendsen, Lea; Luo, Feifei; Sankar, Syam; Gao, Yongqi; Keenlyside, Noel; Vareed Joseph, Porathur; Johannessen, Ola

    2016-04-01

    The instrumental records show a significant positive correlation between the Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, where a positive (negative) AMV is associated with more (less) ISM rainfall. We have used both proxy reconstruction and twelve models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to investigate if the observed AMV-ISM relation is a persistent internal climate signal or externally forced. A comparison of several annual resolution proxy records both from the Atlantic and for the ISM show that the multi-decadal variability in both indices is persistent, but the link between them is not. The correlation between the two regions is weak, and even negative in some periods, before the instrumental time period. The analysis of CMIP5 simualtions is consistent with these results. While none of the CMIP5 models investigated simulate the significant AMV-ISM connection in the pre-industrial control simulations with fixed external forcing, three of the models reproduce the relation in the 20th century historical simulations with transient forcing. In these models external forcing is linked to the mid-to-upper tropospheric temperature pattern with a strengthened land-ocean contrast over South Asia, consistent with an enhanced ISM, as well as the evolution of AMV. We conclude that the significant AMV-ISM relation found in the observations after the industrial revolution may be associated with external forcing, rather than being internal climate variability.

  20. Probabilistic multi-model ensemble prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using general circulation models: A non-parametric approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Nachiketa; Mohanty, Uma Charan; Sahoo, Lokanath

    2013-03-01

    Probabilistic prediction has the ability to convey the intrinsic uncertainty of forecast that helps the decision makers to manage the climate risk more efficiently than deterministic forecasts. In recent times, probabilistic predictions obtained from the products from General Circulation Models (GCMs) have gained considerable attention. The probabilistic forecast can be generated in parametric (assuming Gaussian distribution) as well as non-parametric (counting method) ways. The present study deals with the non-parametric approach that requires no assumption about the form of the forecast distribution for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) based on the hindcast run of seven general circulation models from 1982 to 2008. Probabilistic prediction from each of the GCM products has been generated by non-parametric methods for tercile categories (viz. below normal (BN), near-normal (NN), and above normal (AN)) and evaluation of their skill is assessed against observed data. Five different types of PMME schemes have been used for combining probabilities from each GCM to improve the forecast skill as compared to the individual GCMs. These schemes are different in nature of assigning the weights for combining probabilities. After a rigorous analysis through Rank Probability Skill Score (RPSS) and relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the superiority of PMME has been established over climatological probability. It is also found that, the performances of PMME1 and PMME3 are better than all the other methods whereas PMME3 has showed more improvement over PMME1.

  1. Forced response of the East Asian summer rainfall over the past millennium: results from a coupled model simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Jian; Wang, Hongli; Ti, Ruyuan [Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, Honolulu, HI (United States); Kuang, Xueyuan [Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing (China)

    2011-01-15

    The centennial-millennial variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation over the past 1000 years was investigated through the analysis of a millennium simulation of the coupled ECHO-G model. The model results indicate that the centennial-millennial variation of the EASM is essentially a forced response to the external radiative forcing (insolation, volcanic aerosol, and green house gases). The strength of the response depends on latitude; and the spatial structure of the centennial-millennial variation differs from the interannual variability that arises primarily from the internal feedback processes within the climate system. On millennial time scale, the extratropical and subtropical precipitation was generally strong during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and weak during Little Ice Age (LIA). The tropical rainfall is insensitive to the effective solar radiation forcing (insolation plus radiative effect of volcanic aerosols) but significantly responds to the modern anthropogenic radiative forcing. On centennial time scale, the variation of the extratropical and subtropical rainfall also tends to follow the effective solar radiation forcing closely. The forced response features in-phase rainfall variability between the extratropics and subtropics, which is in contrast to the anti-correlation on the interannual time scale. Further, the behavior of the interannual-decadal variation in the extratropics is effectively modulated by change of the mean states on the millennial time scale, suggesting that the structure of the internal mode may vary with significant changes in the external forcing. These findings imply that on the millennial time scale, (a) the proxy data in the extratropical EA may more sensitively reflect the EASM rainfall variations, and (b) the Meiyu and the northern China rainfall provide a consistent measure for the EASM strength. (orig.)

  2. Modulation of Summer Monsoon Circulation over Peninsular India by Western Ghats- A regional Climate modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajanayagam, Lorna; Janardanan, Rajesh; Ram Mohan, H. S.

    The aim of the study is to understand the wind pattern over the Peninsular India with the modification of Orography over the region using Regional climate model. The model used in this study is the recent version (Version III) of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Regional Climate Model RegCM3. The model integration is done on a horizontal resolution of 60 km. . The planetary boundary layer scheme used is that of Holtslag, cumulus parameterization scheme Emanuel of MIT, SUBEX large scale precipitation scheme and BATS ocean flux parameterization scheme. The model is run from 1st May to 30th September. The first month is taken for the spin up. The next four months are taken to study the monsoon. The simulation has been carried out for the 100%, 90%, 60% and 30% Orography (hereafter 100%o,90%o, 60%o, and 30%o) cases with RegCM3. The Zonal wind pattern for the 100%o and 90%o are similar, whereas the pattern changed for the 60% and 30%o. For the 60% and 30%o cases, the Zonal wind strengthened over the south peninsular India gradually increasing towards north. The Meridional component of the wind has a maximum over the Western Ghats between the latitudes 10o N and 15o N for the 100%o. Similar pattern has been observed for the 90%o also. For the 60%o and 30%o, the core has shifted to the northeast of India. The magnitude has decreased for the 30%o and the magnitude of meridional component is zero over the region south of 10o N. Keywords: Orography, Zonal and Meridional wind. References: Giorgi F, Mon. Wea Rev. 121: 2794 (1993) Giorgi F, Marinucci M R and Bates G T , Mon. Wea Rev. 121: 2794 (1993) K. C. Chow, Timing Liu, Johnny C. L. Chan and Yihui Ding, Int. J. Climatol. 26:1339-1359 (2006) K. C. Chow, Hang-Wai Tong and Johnny C. L. Chan, Clim. Dyn. DOI 10.1007/s00382-007- 0301-6

  3. Coral Geochemical Proxy Records Of The East Asian Winter Monsoon And Hydrological Conditions In The Central Vietnam From 1978-2004 AD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, C.; Shen, C.; Chen, Y.; Chiang, H.; Lam, D. D.; Ngai, N.

    2007-12-01

    Monthly-resolution geochemical proxies, including δ18O, δ13C, Sr/Ca, and Ba/Ca, in a living Porites coral head, collected from Son Tra Island, a near-shore island located at the north tip of Vung Da Nang Bay, central Vietnam (16°12'59.4", 108°1'57.1"), was used to quantitatively reconstruct records of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), seasonality of rainfall, and regional terrestrial input during a period of 1978-2004 AD. By comparing the 1/4-century geochemical data, five features are exhibited. (1) The coral Sr/Ca-inferred summer SSTs correspond well with the 1°x1° instrumental data to suggest that the regional SST record can be retrieved from this local coral head. (2) Interannual variation of coral winter SST data does not follow regional instrumental values. The harmonic phenomenon between coral inferred winter SST dynamic and the surface pressure difference, between the southern South China Sea (SCS) (0-10°N, 105-115°E) and the northern SCS (22.5-32.5°N, 112-122°E), indicating that the cold local SST induced by East Asian winter monsoon was addressed in the Son Tra coral. (3) 1‰ seasonal anomaly of δ18O residual (Δδ18O) suggests a 2-4-psu seasonal salinity change between dry and wet seasons. (4) The synchronous intra-annual changes of δ18O and Ba/Ca data suggest that the rainy season is from late summer to winter, which is consistent with the meteorological record. (5) The high Ba/Ca background level of 10 μmol/mol in 1992-2004, 2-3 times larger than the averaged value of 4 μmol/mol in 1978-1992, indicates an enhanced terrestrial sediment discharge into the bay over the past 10 years. Ba records probably reflect an impact of human activity on hydrological change since the Vietnam War.

  4. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gong and Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM. Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF was observed at the top of the atmosphere. The model results indicate that both the high and low clouds are persistent throughout the summer months in both years. Because of large cloud water, low clouds significantly reduce the solar radiation flux reaching the surface, which nevertheless still dominate the surface energy balance, accounting for more than 50% of the surface heating. The low clouds also contribute significantly the downward longwave radiation to the surface with values strongly dependent on the cloud base temperature. The presence of low clouds effectively decreases the temperature and moisture gradients near surface, resulting in a substantial decrease in the sensible and latent heat fluxes from surface, which partially compensate the decrease of the net radiative cooling of the surface. For example, in the two days, May 8 and July 11 of 1988, the total cloud cover of 80% is simulated, but the respective low cloud cover (water was 63% (114 gm-2 and 22% (21 gm-2. As a result, the downward solar radiation is smaller by 161 Wm-2 in May 8. On the other hand, the cloud temperature was _ lower, yielding 56 Wm-2 smaller downward longwave radiation. The near surface temperature and gradient is more than _ smaller (and moisture gradient, leading to 21 and 81 Wm-2 smaller sensible heat and latent heat fluxes. It is also demonstrated that the model is capable to reproduce the intraseasonal variation of shortwave CRF, and catches the relationship between total cloud cover and SW CRF. The model results show the dominance of high cloud on the regional mean longwave CRF and low cloud on the intra

  5. Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the summer West African monsoon in AMIP simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niang, Coumba; Mohino, Elsa; Gaye, Amadou T.; Omotosho, J. Bayo

    2017-04-01

    At intraseasonal timescales, convection over West Africa is modulated by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). In this work we investigate the simulation of such relationship by 11 state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation models runs with prescribed observed sea surface temperatures. In general, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations show good skill in capturing the main characteristics of the summer MJO as well as its influence on convection and rainfall over West Africa. Most models simulate an eastward spatiotemporal propagation of enhanced and suppressed convection similar to the observed MJO, although their signal over West Africa is weaker in some models. In addition, the ensemble average of models' composites gives a better performance in reproducing the main features and timing of the MJO and its impact over West Africa. The influence on rainfall is well captured in both Sahel and Guinea regions thereby adequately producing the transition between positive and negative rainfall anomalies through the different phases as in the observations. Furthermore, the results show that a strong active convection phase is clearly associated with a stronger African Easterly Jet (AEJ) but the weak convective phase is associated with a much weaker AEJ. Our analysis of the equatorial waves suggests that the main impact over West Africa is established by the propagation of low-frequency waves within the MJO and Rossby spectral peaks. Results from the simulations confirm that it may be possible to predict anomalous convection over West Africa with a time lead of 15-20 day.

  6. Potential predictability and actual skill of Boreal Summer Tropical SST and Indian summer monsoon rainfall in CFSv2-T382: Role of initial SST and teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, Prasanth A.; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Das, Renu S.; Salunke, Kiran; Dhakate, Ashish

    2017-10-01

    The present study assess the potential predictability of boreal summer (June through September, JJAS) tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using high resolution climate forecast system (CFSv2-T382) hindcasts. Potential predictability is computed using relative entropy (RE), which is the combined effect of signal strength and model spread, while the correlation between ensemble mean and observations represents the actual skill. Both actual and potential skills increase as lead time decreases for Niño3 index and equatorial East Indian Ocean (EEIO) SST anomaly and both the skills are close to each other for May IC hindcasts at zero lead. At the same time the actual skill of ISMR and El Niño Modoki index (EMI) are close to potential skill for Feb IC hindcasts (3 month lead). It is interesting to note that, both actual and potential skills are nearly equal, when RE has maximum contribution to individual year's prediction skill and its relationship with absolute error is insignificant or out of phase. The major contribution to potential predictability is from ensemble mean and the role of ensemble spread is limited for Pacific SST and ISMR hindcasts. RE values are able to capture the predictability contribution from both initial SST and simultaneous boundary forcing better than ensemble mean, resulting in higher potential skill compared to actual skill for all ICs. For Feb IC hindcasts at 3 month lead time, initial month SST (Feb SST) has important predictive component for El Niño Modoki and ISMR leading to higher value of actual skill which is close to potential skill. This study points out that even though the simultaneous relationship between ensemble mean ISMR and global SST is similar for all ICs, the predictive component from initial SST anomalies are captured well by Feb IC (3 month lead) hindcasts only. This resulted in better skill of ISMR for Feb IC (3 month lead) hindcasts compared to May IC (0 month lead

  7. Irrigation as an important anthropogenic forcing on the mean and intra-seasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Shubhi; Chakraborty, Arindam; Karmakar, Nirupam; Moulds, Simon; Mijic, Ana; Buytaert, Wouter

    2017-04-01

    Decreasing trend in rainfall in the last few decades over Indo-Gangetic Plains of northern India as seen from ground-based observations, parallels stressed ground water resources, with irrigation utilising up to 90%. The decrease in mean rainfall is co-incidental with an increasing trend in irrigation. In this work, we have analysed the effect of the extensive irrigation over Gangetic Plains (GP) on monsoon climate. In the first step, the effect of irrigation on soil moisture was accessed using a high-resolution land surface model (JULES). The model was run over Gangetic basin in two scenarios: with and without irrigation. It was seen that the mean soil moisture over GP in the irrigated scenario is higher as compared to non-irrigated scenario. These soil moisture fields were then used as forcing to a state-of-the-art general circulation model with realistic land-atmosphere coupling. A decrease in June-September precipitation over GP, significant at 95% level, is noted in the model simulation with irrigation as compared to simulation without irrigation. In specific, these changes show a remarkable similarity to the long-term trend in observed rainfall spatial pattern. Moreover, weakening of the variability of intra-seasonal oscillations in the high (10-20 days) and low (30-60 days) frequency bands is noted with irrigation. Our results suggest that with shrinking ground water resources in the GP region and a decline in the summer precipitation, the water crisis could exacerbate, with irrigation contributing in a positive feedback mechanism on these tendencies.

  8. Partial least regression approach to forecast the East Asian winter monsoon using Eurasian snow cover and sea surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lulu; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Renhe; Yang, Xin

    2017-06-01

    Seasonal prediction of the East Asian (EA) winter monsoon (EAWM) is of great significance yet a challenging issue. In this study, three statistical seasonal prediction models for the EAWM are established using three leading modes of the Eurasian snow cover (ESC), the first leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) and the four leading modes of the combination of the ESC and SST in preceding autumn, respectively. These leading modes are identified by the partial-least square (PLS) regression. The first PLS (PLS1) mode for the ESC features significantly anomalous snow cover in Siberia and Tibetan Plateau regions. The ESC second PLS (PLS2) mode corresponds to large areas of snow cover anomalies in the central Siberia, whereas the third PLS (PLS3) mode a meridional seesaw pattern of ESC. The SST PLS1 mode basically exhibits an El Niño-Southern Oscillation developing phase in equatorial eastern Pacific and significant SST anomalies in North Atlantic. A strong EAWM tends to emerge in a La Niña year concurrent with cold SST anomalies in the North Atlantic, and vice versa. After a 35-year training period (1967-2001), three PLS seasonal prediction models are constructed and the 11-year hindcast is performed for the period of 2002-2012, respectively. The PLS model based on combination of the autumn ESC and SST exhibits the best hindcast skill among the three models, its correlation coefficient between the observation and the hindcast reaching 0.86. This indicates that this physical-based PLS model may provide another practical tool for the EAWM. In addition, the relative contribution of the ESC and SST is also examined by assessing the hindcast skills of the other two PLS models constructed solely by the ESC or SST. Possible physical mechanisms are also discussed.

  9. A physical-empirical model of the East Asian winter monsoon using Eurasian snow cover and sea surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lulu; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Renhe

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal prediction of the East Asian (EA) winter monsoon (EAWM) is of great significance yet a challenging issue. In this study, three physical-empirical (PE) seasonal prediction models for the EAWM are established using three leading modes of the Eurasian snow cover (ESC), the first leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) and the first leading mode of the combination of the ESC and SST in preceding autumn, respectively. These leading modes are identified by the partial-least square (PLS) regression. The first PLS (PLS1) mode for the ESC features significantly anomalous snow cover in Siberia and Tibetan Plateau regions. The ESC second PLS (PLS2) mode corresponds to large areas of snow cover anomalies in the central Siberia, whereas the third PLS (PLS3) mode a meridional seesaw pattern of ESC. The SST PLS1 mode basically exhibits an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) developing phase in equatorial eastern Pacific and significant SST anomalies in North Atlantic. A strong EAWM tends to emerge in a La Niña year concurrent with cold SST anomalies in the North Atlantic, and vice versa. After a 35-yr training period (1967t2001), three PE seasonal prediction models are constructed and the 13-yr hindcast is performed for the period of 2002t2014, respectively. The PE model based on combination of the autumn ESC and SST exhibits the best hindcast skill among the three models, its correlation coefficient between the observation and the hindcast reaching 0.88. This indicates that this PE model may provide another practical tool for the EAWM. In addition, the relative contribution of the ESC and SST is also examined by assessing the hindcast skills of the other two PE models constructed solely by the ESC or SST. Possible physical mechanisms are also discussed.

  10. Dust load and rainfall characteristics and their relationship over the South Asian monsoon region under various warming scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Charu; Ganguly, Dilip; Dash, S. K.

    2017-08-01

    Present study investigates the similarities and differences in the pattern of dust load and rainfall and their relationship over the South Asian monsoon region under various future warming scenarios with respect to the historical period using multiple coupled climate model runs that participated in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on statistically robust significance tests, we unravel several likely changes in the pattern of the dust load and rainfall over the South Asia under different future warming scenarios by the end of 21st century compared to the historical period. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test results reveal a significant change (at 5% significance level) in the amount of dust and rainfall under different warming scenarios over the study region. Northern part of the Indian subcontinent is likely to witness increased dust loading in future, and regions with increase in dust load are also likely to be the regions of increased rainfall over North India. Positive correlation between rainfall over the Indian region and dust over the Arabian region is also likely to strengthen in future. Considerable changes in the spatial correlation pattern between dust and rainfall are noted under different representative concentration pathways; however, no noteworthy changes are recorded in their temporal relationship. Notable intermodel differences in the patterns of dust load and rainfall relationship over South Asia are possibly caused by variations in the dust emission schemes among the CMIP5 models as well as the parameterization of aerosol indirect effect in addition to the differences in the meteorology simulated by various models under identical forcing scenarios.

  11. Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon: once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhiwei; Li, Jianping; Jiang, Zhihong; He, Jinhai

    2011-10-01

    In 2008 (January-February), East Asia (EA) experiences the most severe and long-persisting snowstorm in the past 100 years. Results in this study show that 2007/2008 winter is dominant by the third principal mode of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) which explains 8.7% of the total surface air temperature variance over EA. Significantly distinguished from the first two leading modes, the third mode positive phase features an increased surface pressure over the northwestern EA, an enhanced central Siberian high (CSH), a strengthened and northwestward extended western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and anomalously strong moisture transport from western Pacific, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal to EA. It also exhibits an intimate linkage with the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Arctic Ocean areas adjacent to northern Eurasian continent, central North Pacific and northeastern Pacific. Such SSTAs emerge in prior autumn and persist through ensuing winter, signifying precursory conditions for the anomalous third EAWM mode. Numerical experiments with a simple general circulation model demonstrate that the Arctic SSTAs excite geo-potential height anomalies over northern Eurasian continent and impacts on the CSH, while the extra-tropical Pacific SSTAs deform the WPSH. Co-effects of them play crucial roles on origins of the third EAWM mode. Based on these results, an empirical model is established to predict the third mode of the EAWM. Hindcast is performed for the 1957-2008 period, which shows a quite realistic prediction skill in general and good prediction ability in the extreme phase of the third mode of the EAWM such as 2007/2008 winter. Since all these predictors can be readily monitored in real time, this empirical model provides a real time forecast tool and may facilitate the seasonal prediction of high-impact weather associated with the abnormal EAWM.

  12. Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon: once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Zhiwei [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Environment Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Dorval, QC (Canada); Li, Jianping [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Jiang, Zhihong; He, Jinhai [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing (China)

    2011-10-15

    In 2008 (January-February), East Asia (EA) experiences the most severe and long-persisting snowstorm in the past 100 years. Results in this study show that 2007/2008 winter is dominant by the third principal mode of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) which explains 8.7% of the total surface air temperature variance over EA. Significantly distinguished from the first two leading modes, the third mode positive phase features an increased surface pressure over the northwestern EA, an enhanced central Siberian high (CSH), a strengthened and northwestward extended western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and anomalously strong moisture transport from western Pacific, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal to EA. It also exhibits an intimate linkage with the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Arctic Ocean areas adjacent to northern Eurasian continent, central North Pacific and northeastern Pacific. Such SSTAs emerge in prior autumn and persist through ensuing winter, signifying precursory conditions for the anomalous third EAWM mode. Numerical experiments with a simple general circulation model demonstrate that the Arctic SSTAs excite geo-potential height anomalies over northern Eurasian continent and impacts on the CSH, while the extra-tropical Pacific SSTAs deform the WPSH. Co-effects of them play crucial roles on origins of the third EAWM mode. Based on these results, an empirical model is established to predict the third mode of the EAWM. Hindcast is performed for the 1957-2008 period, which shows a quite realistic prediction skill in general and good prediction ability in the extreme phase of the third mode of the EAWM such as 2007/2008 winter. Since all these predictors can be readily monitored in real time, this empirical model provides a real time forecast tool and may facilitate the seasonal prediction of high-impact weather associated with the abnormal EAWM. (orig.)

  13. Evapotranspiration of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) under the highly seasonal rainfall regime of the Asian monsoon in mainland Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giambelluca, T. W.; Mudd, R. G.; Liu, W.; Kobayashi, N.; Ziegler, A. D.; Miyazawa, Y.; Kumagai, T.; Huang, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Asian Monsoon dominates the climate of the mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) region, characterized by a highly seasonal rainfall regime in which 80-90% of annual rainfall occurs during the 6-month (May-October) wet season. The accompanying extremes in soil moisture, solar radiation, and vapor pressure deficit exert strong controls on ecosystem fluxes, including evapotranspiration (ET). Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), the major commercial crop currently replacing traditional agriculture and secondary forests in MSEA is a native of the equatorial Amazon rainforest, and differs physiologically from the dominant native SE Asian forest tree species. It sheds its leaves in the middle of the dry season and flushes new leaves before the onset of the wet season. In some areas, rubber cultivation is suspected of having caused changes in local climate and watershed processes, including a dramatic downward trend in fog frequency and large increases in surface runoff and soil erosion (Wu et al., 2001, Int. J. Sust. Dev. World Ecol. 8:337-345). Guardiola-Claramonte et al. (2008, Ecohydrology 1:13-22; 2010, Ecohydrology 3:306-314) noted striking differences in the timing and rate of dry season root-water extraction under rubber as compared with other vegetation types. To investigate the environmental impacts of rubber, eddy covariance flux towers were installed to monitor energy, water, and carbon exchange at rubber plantation sites in northeastern Thailand and Cambodia. Results of the first two years of observations at the sites indicate that controls on ET differ between wet and dry seasons, with varying responses to energy, soil moisture, canopy wetness, and leaf area. Despite the long dry season and loss of leaves for several weeks, rubber accumulates exceptionally high annual ET totals, exceeding those of natural forest and other plant functional types in the region. The phenology of rubber represents a disruption of the land-atmosphere interactions of native and other non

  14. Multi-timescale variation of East Asian winter monsoon intensity and its relation with sea surface temperature during last millennium based on ECHO-G simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xueyuan, Kuang; Jian, Liu; Yaocun, Zhang; Danqing, Huang; Ying, Huang

    2011-11-01

    Based on the simulation results derived from ECHO-G global coupled climate model, several East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) indices are compared in order to choose the most suitable one for signaling the intensity of winter monsoon in the last millennium. The index I_shi, which is defined with normalized sea level pressure difference between sea and land in mid and low latitudes, is selected to describe the winter monsoon intensity variation owing to its better capability for reflecting the variation of winter monsoon subsystems, such as the continental high pressure, Aleutian low, East Asian major trough, westerly jet stream, and surface air temperature than the other indices examined. Wavelet analysis on index I_shi shows that the EAWM intensity is characterized by multi-timescale variation with inter-annual, decadal, inter-decadal and inter-centennial oscillations on the background of a slight descending trend. Correlation analysis between the EAWM index and sea surface temperature (SST) at various timescales reveals that the SST in mid-latitudes might provide the background of the EAWM strength changes above decadal timescales, and a negative-feedback process lasting for about two years is found between the EAWM intensity and the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific. According to the correlation, the El Nino occurrence in the second-half of the year leads to weaker EAWM than normal in the following winter and the weakened EAWM corresponds to lower SST in eastern equatorial Pacific after about half a year, which will then strengthen the EAWM intensity in the next winter. It is a stable feedback process and its mechanism is discussed.

  15. Reconstruction of Indian summer monsoon winds and precipitation over the past 10,000 years using equatorial pacific SST proxy records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Emily C.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Molnar, Peter H.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Marchitto, Thomas M.

    2017-02-01

    Using a multiproxy reduced dimension methodology, we reconstruct fields of Arabian Sea summer wind stress curl and Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies since early Holocene using sea surface temperature (SST) proxies (Mg/Ca and alkenones) from 27 locations scattered across the equatorial Pacific. Reconstructions of summer wind stress curl reveal positive anomalies of ˜30% greater than present day off the coastlines of Oman and Yemen at 10 ka, suggesting enhanced ocean upwelling and an enhanced monsoon jet during this time. Positive wind stress curl anomalies in these regions continued but weakened to ˜12% greater than present day at 6 ka. Wind stress curl anomalies increased by about 8% from 6 to 4 ka but declined again until 2 ka. Positive anomalies in wind stress curl during the early to middle Holocene are consistent with greater early Holocene abundances of the upwelling indicator Globigerina bulloides in the western Arabian Sea, which accumulates most rapidly in present climates during periods of marked upwelling. Spatial rainfall reconstructions reveal the greatest difference in precipitation at 10 ka over the core monsoon region (˜20-60% greater than present day) and concurrently the greatest deficit in rainfall in North East India and on the eastern side of the Western Ghats (˜10-30% less than present day). Specifically, reconstructions for 10 ka reveal 40-60% greater rainfall than present day over northwest India. These findings advance the hypothesis that teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific contributed to, if not accounted for, greater early to middle Holocene wetness over India as recorded by various (e.g., cave, lacustrine, and discharge) paleoclimate proxies throughout the monsoon region.

  16. The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi

    2017-12-01

    High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

  17. Decoupled warming and monsoon precipitation in East Asia over the last deglaciation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterse, F.; Prins, M.A.; Beets, C.J.; Troelstra, S.R.; Zheng, H.B.; Gu, Z.Y.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.

    2011-01-01

    Our understanding of the continental climate development in East Asia is mainly based on loess-paleosol sequences and summer monsoon precipitation reconstructions based on oxygen isotopes (delta O-18) of stalagmites from several Chinese caves. Based on these records, it is thought that East Asian

  18. Intensification of the Asian winter monsoon after 7.4 Ma: Grain-size evidence from the Linxia Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, 13.1 Ma to 4.3 Ma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Majie; Song, Chunhui; Dettman, David L.; Fang, Xiaomin; Xu, Xianhai

    2006-08-01

    Grain-size studies of eolian deposits (loess and Red Clay) on the Chinese Loess Plateau have produced a detailed history of the Asian winter monsoon covering the last 8 Ma. This paper extends the gain-size record back to 13.1 Ma in the Linxia basin, at the northeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau. By comparing the grain-size distribution of the Linxia basin sediment with known eolian sediments in the region we argue that the 10-70 μm fraction is mostly eolian. This fraction becomes increasingly dominant in the record after 7.4 Ma, with almost all sediments eolian in origin after 6.2 Ma. Given that the 10-70 μm fraction in the Linxia basin are well sorted and have grain-size spectra that are very similar to sediments transported by the Asian winter monsoon, we suggest that the continuous presence of this fraction throughout our record indicates that the Asian winter monsoon has been present in some form since 13.1 Ma. If the assumption that variation in grain-size spectra on the million-year time scale is primarily controlled by the character of eolian input to the basin is valid, the long-term pattern of the eolian fraction reveals two abrupt intensifications of the Asian winter monsoon at 7.4 Ma and 5.3 Ma. These are superimposed on a gradual intensification of the Asian winter monsoon beginning at 8.0-7.4 Ma. We note that the two abrupt intensifications may be related to Arctic ice volume increase, and that the gradual intensification of the Asian winter monsoon after 7.4 Ma is accompanied by central Asia desertification and may therefore be related to increase in the height or extent of the Tibetan Plateau.

  19. The role of MJO and mid-latitude fronts in the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tong, H.W.; Chan, Johnny C.L.; Zhou, W. [City University of Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, Hong Kong (China)

    2009-11-15

    Previous studies have suggested that the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon onset is concurrent with the arrival of a 30-60-day northward-propagating trough. On the other hand, from a synoptic viewpoint, some studies pointed out that the arrival of a mid-latitude front may be the triggering mechanism of the SCSSM onset. This study attempts to link these two viewpoints and to investigate their relative role in inducing the SCSSM onset. Composites of low-level zonal winds, geopotential heights and temperatures during the 1991-1999 SCSSM onsets based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast ERA-40 data indicate that both the Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO)/Kelvin waves and mid-latitude trough are apparently involved in the onset. The MJO/Kelvin waves play a major role in inducing the large-scale easterly-westerly shift over the central SCS, while the effect of the acceleration of westerlies ahead of the mid-latitude trough is limited to the northern SCS only. Numerical experiments using a regional climate model further demonstrate that the MJO/Kelvin waves control the timing of the onset by changing the background meridional geopotential height gradient over the SCS. When the MJO is at its peak phase over the Maritime continent, it imposes a positive meridional geopotential height gradient over the SCS such that easterly winds are induced, which significantly reduces the strength of a mid-latitude trough. After the equatorial convection has dissipated, a Rossby-wave response is induced, leading to the formation of a northward-moving trough. When this trough moves northward, the meridional geopotential height gradient is reversed and westerly winds are induced. At the same time, if a mid-latitude trough arrives in south China, the westerlies associated with the mid-latitude trough will strengthen because of the background meridional geopotential height gradient, which gives the impression that both the northward-moving trough and mid

  20. Characteristics of shallow water waves off the central west coast of India before, during and after the onset of the Indian summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Amrutha, M.M.; SanilKumar, V.; Sharma, S.; Singh, J.; Gowthaman, R.; Kankara, R.S.

    Eng., vol.107; 2015; 259-270 Characteristics of shallow water waves off the central west coast of India before, during and after the onset of the Indian summer monsoon M.M.Amrutha1, V. Sanil Kumar1*, Sheela Sharma, Jai Singh1, R.Gowthaman1, R..., and Section 4 summarizes the conclusions. 2. Methods 2.1 Study region The study locations are; 1) off Vengurla at a water depth of 15 m in the eastern Arabian Sea (latitude 15.8327° N and longitude 73.5681° E), 2) off Honnavar at water depth of 30 m (14...

  1. Preliminary global paleogeographic maps through the Greenhouse-Icehouse transition: forcing of the Drake Passage and Asian Monsoons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poblete, Fernando; Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume; Licht, Alexis; van Hinsbergen, Douwe; Roperch, Pierrick; Guillocheau, Francois; Baby, Guillaume; Baatsen, Michiel

    2017-04-01

    Paleogeographic maps are essential for understanding Earth dynamics. They provide the necessary boundary conditions for climate and geodynamic modeling, surface processes and biotic interactions. In particular, the opening and closing of ocean gateways and the growth of major mountain belts are major drivers of climate changes and biotic interchange. However, the timing and spatial extent of such events are highly controversial and regularly questioned by new data. As part of the ERC "MAGIC" project focusing on Asian Monsoons during the Icehouse to Greenhouse transition we thus produced a set of worldwide Cenozoic paleogeographic maps in the period time between 60 to 20 Ma, with a set of boundary conditions specific to the India-Asia collision zone and the Drake Passage. The creation of a paleogeographic map followed a rigorous and reproductively methodology that integrates paleobathymetric, paleoshoreline and paleotopographic data into a coherent plate tectonic model using the open source software GPlates. (1) We use the model provided by Seton et al. (2012) as a first order tectonic model modified to integrate the full restoration of five regions: the Andes, the Scotia Arc, Africa, The Mediterranean Sea and the Tibet-Himalayan collision zone. (2) The paleobathymetry was provided by Müller et al. (2008) using age-depth relationships and assuming symmetric ridge spreading. (3) Paleoshoreline maps were modified according to the fossil database from fossilworks.org and the geological record and were used to represent the boundary between terrestrial and marine paleo-environments. (4) To reconstruct paleoelevations, the most controversial task, we compiled a wide range of data including stable isotope, leaf physiognomy, and thermochronology combined with regional fossil and geological records (tectonic setting) and geomorphological data. Finally, we use the open source GMT software and a set of masks to modify the current Earth relief model (ETOPO) according to the

  2. The Indian Monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    aim of monsoon meteorology is to predict these variations. Understanding the basic ..... hemisphere. Monsoon – A Gigantic Land-Sea Breeze? Over three hundred years ago, in 1686, Edmund Halley (better known for the comet named after him) published a paper entitled .... around 20 S in the southern summer. The varia-.

  3. Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

    2016-04-13

    The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

  4. Long-range transport pathways of tropospheric source gases originating in Asia into the northern lower stratosphere during the Asian monsoon season 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Vogel

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Global simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS using artificial tracers of air mass origin are used to analyze transport mechanisms from the Asian monsoon region into the lower stratosphere. In a case study, the transport of air masses from the Asian monsoon anticyclone originating in India/China by an eastward-migrating anticyclone which broke off from the main anticyclone on 20 September 2012 and filaments separated at the northeastern flank of the anticyclone are analyzed. Enhanced contributions of young air masses (younger than 5 months are found within the separated anticyclone confined at the top by the thermal tropopause. Further, these air masses are confined by the anticyclonic circulation and, on the polar side, by the subtropical jet such that the vertical structure resembles a bubble within the upper troposphere. Subsequently, these air masses are transported eastwards along the subtropical jet and enter the lower stratosphere by quasi-horizontal transport in a region of double tropopauses most likely associated with Rossby wave breaking events. As a result, thin filaments with enhanced signatures of tropospheric trace gases were measured in the lower stratosphere over Europe during the TACTS/ESMVal campaign in September 2012 in very good agreement with CLaMS simulations. Our simulations demonstrate that source regions in Asia and in the Pacific Ocean have a significant impact on the chemical composition of the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. Young, moist air masses, in particular at the end of the monsoon season in September/October 2012, flooded the extratropical lower stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere with contributions of up to  ≈  30 % at 380 K (with the remaining fraction being aged air. In contrast, the contribution of young air masses to the Southern Hemisphere is much lower. At the end of October 2012, approximately 1.5 ppmv H2O is found in the lower

  5. A study of the characteristics of energy flux and its relationship with the summer monsoon over alpine wetlands in the source region of the Yellow River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Dongyu; Wen, Jun; Ma, Yaoming; Zhou, Juan; Chen, Jinlei; Liu, Rong; Wang, Xin; Zhang, Tangtang; Lai, Xin; Wang, ZuoLiang

    2017-11-01

    The variation trends of sensible heat (SH) and latent heat (LH) flux over the alpine wetlands in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) have been altered in the past 30 years. The variations in the surface heat source and its influence on the plateau summer monsoon have become attractive and important. The Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), driven by the forcing data from CRUNCEP, was used to simulate the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of the SH and LH from 1980 to 2010 over the SRYR. The simulated SH and LH are compared to the situ measurements of the Maduo climatic monitoring station from the Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources. In addition, the relationships between the SH, LH and plateau summer monsoon have also been analysed. The results show that the seasonal mean SH reaches its maximum in spring and its minimum in winter. For the annual SH, there is an increasing trend in the early period and then a decreasing trend, while the variation trends of the LH are opposite to those of the SH flux. In addition, the LH transfer in summer reaches a maximum; the SH flux in the northern SRYR was higher in spring and summer. The SH of the two lakes, Lake Gyaring and Lake Ngoring, are significantly smaller than those of the surrounding areas. For the spatial distributions of the annual mean flux, the SH flux presented larger values over the central SRYR, while it presented smaller values in the southern areas. The LH shows an increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast of the SRYR. Meanwhile, the LH transport over the two lakes is notably higher than those of the surrounding areas. The time series of SH amplitude shows that it changes every 6-10 a. The SH amplitude is a mostly positive anomaly in the spatial distribution of the first pattern. EOF2 shows a high west of 101°E and a low centre east of 101°E; the relationship between the SH in spring and the different plateau summer monsoon indices are negatively correlated

  6. On the relationship between Indian summer monsoon withdrawal and Indo-Pacific SST anomalies before and after 1976/1977 climate shift

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sabeerali, C.T.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Ajayamohan, R.S. [University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Murtugudde, Raghu [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    A clear shift in the withdrawal dates of the Indian Summer Monsoon is observed in the long term time series of rainfall data. Prior (posterior) to the 1976/1977 climate shift most of the withdrawal dates are associated with a late (an early) withdrawal. As a result, the length of the rainy season (LRS) over the Indian land mass has also undergone similar changes (i.e., longer (shorter) LRS prior (posterior) to the climate shift). In this study, probable reasons for this significant shift in withdrawal dates and the LRS are investigated using reanalysis/observed datasets and also with the help of an atmospheric general circulation model. Reanalysis/observational datasets indicate that prior to the climate shift the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Arabian Sea exerted a strong influence on both the withdrawal and the LRS. After the climate shift, the influence of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean SST has decreased and surprisingly, the influence of the Arabian Sea SST is almost non-existent. On the other hand, the influence of the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean has increased significantly. It is observed that the upper tropospheric temperature gradient over the dominant monsoon region has decreased and the relative influence of the Indian Ocean SST variability on the withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon has increased in the post climate shift period. Sensitivity experiments with the contrasting SST patterns on withdrawal dates and the LRS in the pre- and post- climate shift scenarios, confirm the observational evidences presented above. (orig.)

  7. Spatial and diurnal variations of storm heights in the East Asia summer monsoon: storm height regimes and large-scale diurnal modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Myung-Sook; Lee, Myong-In; Kim, Hyerim; Im, Jungho; Yoo, Jung-Moon

    2016-02-01

    This study investigates the spatial and diurnal variation of storm height in the East Asia summer monsoon region using 13-year Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar data. Precipitating storms are classified as shallow (10 km) depending the height. Four different regimes are identified to characterize the region: the continental (CT) shallow regime over inland China with elevated terrain, the CT deep over the Chinese Plain, the coastal (CS) middle over the East China Sea and South Sea of Korea, and the CS shallow over the south coastal area of Japan. This regime separation reflects well the distinctive regional difference in the rainfall contribution by each storm type. The occurrence frequencies of shallow, middle, and deep storms exhibit pronounced diurnal variation as well, but with significant differences in the amplitude and phase across the regimes. These lead to a diversity in the diurnal variation of surface rainfall such as bimodal morning and late evening peaks in the two CT regimes and the single morning peak in the two CS regimes. Processes involved in the diurnal variation of storms are different across the regimes, indicating difference in the contributing role of surface heating, large-scale diurnal circulation, and diurnal propagations of convective systems. The storm height also affects the rain intensity. This study highlights that the East Asia summer monsoon has distinctive sub-regional variation of the storm height distribution, thereby providing unique differences in the rainfall amount, intensity, and the diurnal variation.

  8. Indian summer monsoon variability during the Holocene as recorded in sediments of the Arabian Sea: Timing and implications

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Thamban, M.; Kawahata, H.; Rao, V.P.

    . Most of these millennial-to-centennial cycles exist in various monsoon records as well as the tree ring delta sup(14) C data and/or other solar proxy records. It is suggested that throughout the Holocene, externally, small changes in solar activity...

  9. Long-range atmospheric transport of terrestrial biomarkers by the Asian winter monsoon: Evidence from fresh snow from Sapporo, northern Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Shinya; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Seki, Osamu

    2011-07-01

    Molecular distributions of terrestrial biomarkers were investigated in fresh snow samples from Sapporo, northern Japan, to better understand the long-range atmospheric transport of terrestrial organic matter by the Asian winter monsoon. Stable carbon (δ 13C) and hydrogen (δD) isotope ratios of C 22-C 28n-alkanoic acids were also measured to decipher their source regions. The snow samples are found to contain higher plant-derived n-alkanes, n-alkanols and n-alkanoic acids as major components. Relative abundances of these three biomarker classes suggest that they are likely derived from higher plants in the Asian continent. The C 27/C 31 ratios of terrestrial n-alkanes in the snow samples range from 1.3 to 5.5, being similar to those of the plants growing in the latitudes >40°N of East Asia. The δ 13C values of the n-alkanoic acids in the snow samples (-33.4 to -27.6‰) are similar to those of typical C 3 gymnosperm from Sapporo (-34.9 to -29.3‰). However, the δD values of the n-alkanoic acids (-208 to -148‰) are found to be significantly depleted with deuterium (by ˜72‰) than those of plant leaves from Sapporo. Such depletion can be most likely interpreted by the long-range atmospheric transport of the n-alkanoic acids from vegetation in the latitudes further north of Sapporo because the δD values of terrestrial higher plants tend to decrease northward in East Asia reflecting the δD of precipitation. Together with the results of backward trajectory analyses, this study suggests that the terrestrial biomarkers in the Sapporo snow samples are likely transported from Siberia, Russian Far East and northeast China to northern Japan by the Asian winter monsoon.

  10. Variations of the Indian summer monsoon over the Mio-Pliocene recorded in the Bengal Fan (IODP Exp354): implications for the evolution of the terrestrial biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galy, Valier; Feakins, Sarah; Karkabi, Elias; Ponton, Camilo; Galy, Albert; France-Lanord, Christian

    2017-04-01

    A pressing challenge in climate research is understanding the temporal evolution of the Indian monsoon system; its response to global and regional climatic controls (including warming); as well as implications in terms of vegetation (C4 expansion), erosion of the Himalaya and carbon sequestration in the Bengal Fan. Studies on climate dynamics have recently offered new insights into the mechanistic controls on the monsoon: the tectonic boundary of the Himalaya is implicated as the major control on Indian summer monsoon dynamics today. Since this region has been uplifted since at least the late Oligocene, it is possible to test the response of monsoon precipitation to global and regional climate change, and also understand feedbacks on the climate system via carbon sequestration in the Bengal Fan. The evidence for monsoon intensity changes across the Miocene and Pliocene is currently incomplete given temporal uncertainty and diagenesis in terrestrial records; biases in the records reconstructed from the distal fan; and conflicting evidence from wind speed and aridity metrics for a stronger or weaker monsoon. Our alternative approach is therefore to study the basin-wide hydrological changes recorded in a multi-proxy, multi-site study of the marine sediments of the Bengal Fan recovered during IODP expedition 354. In turbiditic sediments of Himalayan origin, the late Miocene C4 expansion was found in all three long records recovered during expedition 354 (i.e. at sites U1451, U1450 and U1455, from East to West) based on stable carbon isotope composition of terrestrial leaf-wax compounds. Cores from sites U1455 (a reoccupation of DSDP Leg 22 Site 218) provide the highest resolution record of the C4 transition, which appears to occur abruptly within a relatively continuous series of turbiditic sequences. Bio- and magneto-stratigraphic dating of these records by members of Expedition 354 science party is underway and will provide the best stratigraphic constraint of the C4

  11. Insolation and Abrupt Climate Change Effects on the Western Pacific Maritime Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.; Cardenas, M. B.; Siringan, F. P.; Banner, J. L.; lin, K.; Taylor, F. W.

    2012-12-01

    The response of the Asian-Australian monsoon system to changes in summer insolation over the Holocene is recorded in many monsoon-sensitive paleoclimate reconstructions. The response is commonly direct; more summer insolation leads to increased monsoon rainfall over land as captured in stalagmite δ18O records from Oman and China. We evaluate this direct response using a maritime stalagmite record from the island of Palawan, Philippines (10 N, 119 E). The wet season in Palawan occurs over the same months (June-October) as in Oman, India and China. Therefore, we expected the stalagmite δ18O record from Palawan, a proxy of rainfall, to have a similar trend of decreasing monsoon rainfall over the Holocene. However, the Holocene trend in stalagmite δ18O is opposite to that expected: rainfall increases over the Holocene. Our explanation for the Holocene trend observed at Palawan is that the increase in the maritime monsoon balances the reduction in the land monsoon; an explanation that is consistent with previously published coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model results. Seawater δ18O reconstructions from marine sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific contain a freshening trend over the Holocene, also supporting the hypothesis of increase maritime monsoon rainfall. However, the decrease in maritime monsoon rainfall during the Younger Dryas at Palawan matches that observed in Chinese stalagmite records, meeting our original expectation of a similar wet season response in the various Asian-Australian monsoon records. One explanation for the similar Younger Dryas response in these monsoon records is the influence of seasonal changes in sea ice coverage, as previously suggested. A stalagmite δ18O record from Borneo (~800 km SE of Palawan), which lacks evidence of the Younger Dryas, provides supporting evidence for this explanation.

  12. Influence of the North American monsoon on Southern California tropospheric ozone levels during summer in 2013 and 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granados-Muñoz, Maria Jose; Johnson, Matthew S.; Leblanc, Thierry

    2017-06-01

    The impact of the North American (NA) monsoon on tropospheric ozone variability in Southern California is investigated using lidar measurements at Jet Propulsion Laboratory-Table Mountain Facility, California, and the chemical-transport model GEOS-Chem. Routine lidar observations obtained in July-August 2013-2014 reveal a consistent ozone enhancement of 23 ppbv in the free troposphere (6-9 km), when ozone-rich air is transported along the western edge of the upper level anticyclone associated with the NA monsoon from regions where maximum lightning-induced NOx production occurs. When the high-pressure system shifts to the southeast, a zonal westerly flow of the air parcels reaching the Table Mountain Facility (TMF) occurs, prohibiting the lightning-induced ozone enhanced air to reach TMF. This modulation of tropospheric ozone by the position of the NA monsoon anticyclone could have implications on long-term ozone trends associated with our changing climate, due to the expected widening of the tropical belt affecting the strength and position of the anticyclone.

  13. Variations in particulate matter over Indo-Gangetic Plains and Indo-Himalayan Range during four field campaigns in winter monsoon and summer monsoon: Role of pollution pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, A.; Abdelmaksoud, A. S.; Nazeer Ahammed, Y.; Alghamdi, Mansour ِA.; Banerjee, Tirthankar; Bhat, Mudasir Ahmad; Chatterjee, A.; Choudhuri, Anil K.; Das, Trupti; Dhir, Amit; Dhyani, Pitamber Prasad; Gadi, Ranu; Ghosh, Sanjay; Kumar, Kireet; Khan, A. H.; Khoder, M.; Maharaj Kumari, K.; Kuniyal, Jagdish Chandra; Kumar, Manish; Lakhani, Anita; Mahapatra, Parth Sarathi; Naja, Manish; Pal, Dharam; Pal, S.; Rafiq, Mahammad; Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Rashid, Irfan; Saikia, Prasenjit; Shenoy, D. M.; Sridhar, Vijay; Verma, Nidhi; Vyas, B. M.; Saxena, Mohit; Sharma, A.; Sharma, S. K.; Mandal, T. K.

    2017-04-01

    Both in-situ and space-borne observations reveal an extremely high loading of particulates over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), all year around. With a burgeoning population and combustion sources (fossil fuels (FFs) and biofuels (BFs)) in close proximity to each other, the IGP is widely regarded as a hotspot for anthropogenic aerosol emission in South Asia. The deteriorating air quality over this region, particularly during winters, is a cause of major concern, since the pollutants undergo long range transport from their source regions to the Indo-Himalayan Range (IHR), Bay of Bengal (BoB) and other remote areas, polluting their pristine atmospheric conditions. Seasonal reversal in winds over the Indian mainland leads to an outflow of continental pollutants into the BoB during winters and a net advection of desert dust aerosols into the IGP from southwest Asia (SW-Asia), northwest India (NW-India) and northern Africa (N-Africa) during summers. Through the course of this study, four observational campaigns were conducted for sampling the ambient PM2.5 and PM10 during winter and summer seasons of 2014-2015, at multiple locations (18 sites) in the IGP, IHR, and semi-arid/arid sites towards their south and west, in order to accurately determine the inter-seasonal and inter-annual changes in the aerosol loading at the sites. We have also utilized data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on-board Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra satellite for estimating the columnar Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm (AOD550) and data from EOS Terra and Aqua satellites for discovering openly burning fires in the vicinity of sampling sites. Determination of the major source regions and key transport pathways during both seasons have also been attempted, using back-trajectory cluster analyses, as well as receptor models such as PSCF and CWT.

  14. Water use by a warm-temperate deciduous forest under the influence of the Asian monsoon: contributions of the overstory and understory to forest water use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Eun-Young; Otieno, Dennis; Kwon, Hyojung; Lee, Bora; Lim, Jong-Hwan; Kim, Joon; Tenhunen, John

    2013-09-01

    The warm temperate deciduous forests in Asia have a relatively dense understory, hence, it is imperative that we understand the dynamics of transpiration in both the overstory (E O) and understory (E U) of forest stands under the influence of the Asian monsoon in order to improve the accuracy of forest water use budgeting and to identify key factors controlling forest water use under climate change. In this study, E O and E U of a temperate deciduous forest stand located in South Korea were measured during the growing season of 2008 using sap flow methods. The objectives of this study were (1) to quantify the total transpiration of the forest stand, i.e., overstory and understory, (2) to determine their relative contribution to ecosystem evapotranspiration (E eco), and (3) to identify factors controlling the transpiration of each layer. E O and E U were 174 and 22 mm, respectively. Total transpiration accounted for 55 % of the total E eco, revealing the importance of unaccounted contributions to E eco (i.e., soil evaporation and wet canopy evaporation). During the monsoon period, there was a strong reduction in the total transpiration, likely because of reductions in photosynthetic active radiation, vapor pressure deficit and plant area index. The ratio of E U to E O declined during the same period, indicating an effect of monsoon on the partitioning of E eco in its two components. The seasonal pattern of E O was synchronized with the overstory canopy development, which equally had a strong regulatory influence on E U.

  15. Molecular records of continental air temperature and monsoon precipitation variability in East Asia spanning the past 130,000 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterse, F.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/371172314; Martínez-García, A.; Zhou, B.; Beets, C.J.; Prins, M.A.; Zheng, H.; Eglinton, T.I.

    2014-01-01

    Our current understanding of past changes in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation intensity derives from several loess–paleosol sequences and oxygen isotope (δ18O) records of well-dated stalagmites. Although temperature is generally presumed to have had minimal impact on EASM records, past

  16. Late Holocene vegetation and climate change on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau: Implications for the Indian Summer Monsoon and links to the Indian Ocean Dipole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kai; Liu, Xingqi; Wang, Yongbo; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Ni, Jian; Liao, Mengna; Xiao, Xiayun

    2017-12-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is one of the most important climate systems, whose variability and driving mechanisms are of broad interest for academic and societal communities. Here, we present a well-dated high-resolution pollen analysis from a 4.82-m long sediment core taken from Basomtso, in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), which depicts the regional climate changes of the past millennium. Our results show that subalpine coniferous forest was dominant around Basomtso from ca. 867 to ca. 750 cal. yr BP, indicating a warm and semi-humid climate. The timberline in the study area significantly decreased from ca. 750 to ca. 100 cal. yr BP, and a cold climate, corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed. Since ca. 100 cal. yr BP, the vegetation type changed to forest-meadow with rising temperatures and moisture. Ordination analysis reveals that the migration of vegetation was dominated by regional temperatures and then by moisture. Further comparisons between the Basomtso pollen record and the regional temperature reconstructions underscore the relevance of the Basomtso record from the southeastern TP for regional and global climatologies. Our pollen based moisture reconstruction demonstrates the strong multicentennial-scale link to ISM variability, providing solid evidence for the increase of monsoonal strengths over the past four centuries. Spectral analysis indicates the potential influence of solar forcing. However, a closer relationship has been observed between multicentennial ISM variations and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs), suggesting that the variations in monsoonal precipitation over the southeastern TP are probably driven by the Indian Ocean Dipole on the multicentennial scale.

  17. Reconstructing Monsoon Variations in India - Evidence from Speleothems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breitenbach, S. F.; Lechleitner, F.; Plessen, B.; Marwan, N.; Cheng, H.; Adkins, J. F.; Haug, G. H.

    2012-12-01

    Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is of vital importance for ca. one fifth of the world's population, yet little is known about the factors governing its variability. Changing seasonality and/or rainfall intensity have profound impacts on the well-being of Asian agriculture-based societies. Most proxy-records from the Indian realm lack temporal resolution and age control sufficient to allow detailed analysis of high-frequency ISM rainfall variations. Low spatial coverage further restricts understanding spatial differences and the interactions between subsystems of the Asian summer monsoon, limiting understanding, not to mention reliable forecasting. Here, we summarize available information on rainfall changes over India, as reflected in speleothems. Suitable stalagmites offer highly precise chronologies and multi-proxy time series. Oxygen isotope and greyscale time series can track ISM intensity. Using published and new records from NE India, we present evidence for significant rainfall changes during the Holocene. Available proxy records show that while long-term ISM rainfall pattern changed in concert with supra-regional variations of the Asian summer monsoon, sub-decadal-scale ISM variations are influenced by local and regional influences. Complex network analysis of Indian and Chinese proxy data reveals that during the Medieval Warm Period ISM and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) were more tightly linked, with a seemingly strong ISM influence on the EASM. During the cooler Little Ice Age however, the ISM and EASM connection weakened and local effects exerted influence on both sub-systems of the Asian monsoon. In order to allow detailed insights in spatio-temporal variations of the ISM and external teleconnections, precisely dated high-resolution time series must be obtained from various places in the Indian peninsula and beyond. Only a combination of high temporal and spatial coverage will allow assessments of the likelihood of drought recurrence in a given

  18. Spatial analysis of temporal trend of rainfall and rainy days during the Indian Summer Monsoon season using daily gridded (0.5° × 0.5°) rainfall data for the period of 1971–2005

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Das, Prabir Kumar; Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R

    2014-01-01

    Daily gridded (0.5° × 0.5°) rainfall data between 1971 and 2005 were used to detect spatial patterns of trend in rainfall and rainy days during the Indian Summer Monsoon (June to September). A non‐parametric (Mann–Kendall test...

  19. Enhancement of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks on the Australian summer monsoon by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notaro, Michael

    2018-01-01

    A regional climate modeling analysis of the Australian monsoon system reveals a substantial modulation of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), both of which operate at similar sub-seasonal time scales, as evidence that the intensity of land-atmosphere interactions is sensitive to the background atmospheric state. Based on ensemble experiments with imposed modification of northern Australian leaf area index (LAI), the atmospheric responses to LAI anomalies are composited for negative and positive modes of the propagating MJO. In the regional climate model (RCM), northern Australian vegetation feedbacks are characterized by evapotranspiration (ET)-driven rainfall responses, with the moisture feedback mechanism dominating over albedo and roughness feedback mechanisms. During November-April, both Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and RCM data reveal MJO's pronounced influence on rainfall patterns across northern Australia, tropical Indian Ocean, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea, and Gulf of Carpentaria, with the MJO dominating over vegetation feedbacks in terms of regulating monsoon rainfall variability. Convectively-active MJO phases support an enhancement of positive vegetation feedbacks on monsoon rainfall. While the MJO imposes minimal regulation of ET responses to LAI anomalies, the vegetation feedback-induced responses in precipitable water, cloud water, and rainfall are greatly enhanced during convectively-active MJO phases over northern Australia, which are characterized by intense low-level convergence and efficient precipitable water conversion. The sub-seasonal response of vegetation-rainfall feedback intensity to the MJO is complex, with significant enhancement of rainfall responses to LAI anomalies in February during convectively-active MJO phases compared to minimal modulation by the MJO during prior and subsequent calendar months.

  20. Amino sugars in suspended particulate matter from the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon of 2001

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Fernandes, L.; DeSouza, F.P.; Matondkar, S.G.P.; Bhosle, N.B.

    and Sri Lanka on the west and by the Andaman?Nicobar islands and Burma on the east. The uniqueness of the Bay is the reversing monsoons that cause seasonal changes in circulation and weather. Furthermore, the Bay receives large quantities of fresh water...) and reversed phase Shim-Pack HRC-ODS analytical column (4.6 mm ID, 15 cm length, 5?m particle size) was used. A binary solvent system consisting of 50mM sodium acetate buffer (pH 6.5) containing 3% of tetrahydrofuran as solvent A and methanol as solvent B...

  1. Performance evaluation of land surface models and cumulus convection schemes in the simulation of Indian summer monsoon using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maity, S.; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.; Mandal, M.; Nayak, S.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the sensitivity of land surface models (LSM) and cumulus convection schemes (CCS) using a regional climate model, RegCM Version-4.1 in simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Numerical experiments were conducted in seasonal scale (May-September) for three consecutive years: 2007, 2008, 2009 with two LSMs (Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS), Community Land Model (CLM 3.5) and five CCSs (MIT, KUO, GRELL, GRELL over land and MIT over ocean (GL_MO), GRELL over ocean and MIT over land (GO_ML)). Important synoptic features are validated using various reanalysis datasets and satellite derived products from TRMM and CRU data. Seasonally averaged surface temperature is reasonably well simulated by the model using both the LSMs along with CCSs namely, MIT, GO_ML and GL_MO schemes. Model simulations reveal slight warm bias using these schemes whereas significant cold bias is seen with KUO and GRELL schemes during all three years. It is noticed that the simulated Somali Jet (SJ) is weak in all simulations except MIT scheme in the simulations with (both BATS and CLM) in which the strength of SJ reasonably well captured. Although the model is able to simulate the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and Sub-Tropical Westerly Jet (STWJ) with all the CCSs in terms of their location and strength, the performance of MIT scheme seems to be better than the rest of the CCSs. Seasonal rainfall is not well simulated by the model. Significant underestimation of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is observed over Central and North West India. Spatial distribution of seasonal ISMR is comparatively better simulated by the model with MIT followed by GO_ML scheme in combination with CLM although it overestimates rainfall over heavy precipitation zones. On overall statistical analysis, it is noticed that RegCM4 shows better skill in simulating ISM with MIT scheme using CLM.

  2. Groundwater δ18O and δD from central Indian Peninsula: influence of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal branches of the summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, S. K.; Deshpande, R. D.; Bhattacharya, S. K.; Jani, R. A.

    2005-03-01

    Results of oxygen and hydrogen isotopic investigations of shallow groundwater and river water samples from the Central Indian Peninsula are reported. The study was undertaken to isotopically characterise the near surface water sources and identify the influence of the two branches of the Indian Summer Monsoon (June-September) in this region. The western part of the study area receives vapour flux largely from the Arabian Sea branch, whereas the eastern part receives significant vapour flux from the Bay of Bengal branch. No significant rainfall occurs in the study area during northeast winter monsoon period of October-December or the remaining part of the year. Therefore, the isotopic character of shallow groundwater from this region could be used to study the relative influence of the vapour sources from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The study shows that: (i) The northeast part, receiving significant rainfall from the Bay of Bengal branch, has a distinctly depleted isotopic composition ( δ18O≈-5±2‰) compared to areas receiving dominant rain from the Arabian Sea branch ( δ18O≈-1±1‰). (ii) In the west coastal belt, the average δ18O in groundwater is close to the average δ18O of precipitation at Bombay (-1.4±1.1‰). But, groundwater samples in the entire Deccan Plateau region show signatures of evaporative enrichment in the form of (a) low slope (˜6.5) of δ18O- δD regression line; (b) low d-excess (0±5‰) and (c) slightly enriched δ18O values (-1±1‰) compared to those expected from the limited precipitation data from stations in Maner basin approximately in the middle of the study area. (iii) Depleted ground waters along the central Indian east coast could arise due to continental rainout of the Arabian Sea vapour source as the moisture-laden monsoon winds crossover to the Bay of Bengal. Alternatively, it is necessary to postulate that the surface waters of the Bay of Bengal contributing to inland vapour flux are significantly more

  3. PDO modulation of the ENSO impact on the summer South Asian high

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Xu; Chen, Wen; Chen, Shangfeng; Feng, Juan

    2017-04-01

    This study investigates modulation effects of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the impact of boreal winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the South Asian high (SAH) variability in the following summer. In the El Niño together with positive PDO (EL/+PDO) or the La Niña together with negative PDO (LA/-PDO) years, boreal winter ENSO can influence the following summer SAH activity significantly. The SAH tends to be obviously strengthened (weakened) and located further south (north) during EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO). However, in the El Niño together with negative PDO (EL/-PDO) or the La Niña together with positive PDO (LA/+PDO) years, the influence of ENSO on the SAH tends to be weak. The strength and location of SAH are close to those in the climatology of 1950-2011 during the EL/-PDO or the LA/+PDO. Further analysis indicates that the PDO could exert pronounced influence on the ENSO-SAH connection via modulating the anomalous Walker circulation and charge effect over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). During the EL/+PDO or LA/-PDO, the anomalous Walker circulation associated with El Niño or La Niña is stronger and lasts for a longer time than those during the EL/-PDO or LA/+PDO. This leads to stronger descending (ascending) motion over the Maritime Continent and easterly (westerly) wind anomalies over the eastern Indian Ocean in the EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO), which further exert larger effects on the surface heat fluxes and subsurface ocean dynamical heating process over the Indian Ocean. As such, the induced warm (cold) sea surface temperature anomalies over the Indian Ocean are more significant and larger in the EL/+PDO (LA/-PDO). These larger sea surface temperature anomalies over the TIO could exert a more significant influence on the tropospheric temperature via moisture adjustment, which subsequently results in stronger SAH variability in the EL/+PDO or the LA/-PDO.

  4. Variability of wind stress and currents at selected locations over the north Indian Ocean during 1977 and 1979 summer monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.; Rao, M.V.

    Intra-seasonal variability of wind stress, wind stress curl and currents at different locations over the northern Indian Ocean during two contrasting monsoon seasons has been investigated making use of the time series data collected during MONSOON...

  5. Speleothem Evidence for Temporal-Spatial Variation in the East Asian Summer Monsoon Since the Medieval Warm Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Delworth and Mann (2000) showed that the AMO is related to changes in thermohaline circulation and meridional heat flux. Hence we may hypothesize that...906 JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE changes lead to changes in thermohaline circulation and meridional heat flux that cause multidecadal climate...changes in global ice volume, solar insolation and/or ocean circulation , whereas high-frequency variations in the speleothem d18O record may reflect

  6. South Asian summer monsoon variability during the last ~54 kyrs inferred from surface water salinity and river run off proxies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gebregiorgis, D.; Hathorne, E.C.; Sijinkumar, A.V.; Nath, B.N.; Nurnberg, D.; Frank, M.

    variability. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 375: 418-429. Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. and Levrard, B., 2004. A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 428...

  7. Retrospective seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over West Central and Peninsular India in the past 142 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Juan; Wang, Bin; Yang, Young-Min

    2017-04-01

    Prediction of Indian summer (June-September) rainfall on regional scales remains an open issue. The operational predictions of West Central Indian summer rainfall (WCI-R) and Peninsular Indian summer rainfall (PI-R) made by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had no skills during 2004-2012. This motivates the present study aiming at better understanding the predictability sources and physical processes governing summer rainfall variability over these two regions. Analysis of 133 year data reveal that although the lower boundary forcing that associated with enhanced WCI-R and PI-R featured a similar developing La-Nina and "east high west low" sea-level pressure (SLP) dipole pattern across the Indo-Pacific, the anomalous high sea surface temperature (SST) over the northern Indian Ocean and weak low pressure over northern Asia tended to enhance PI-R but reduce WCI-R. Based on our understanding of physical linkages with the predictands, we selected four and two causative predictors for predictions of the WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The intensified summer WCI-R is preceded by (a) Indian Ocean zonal dipole-like SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (b) tropical Pacific zonal dipole SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (c) central Pacific meridional dipole SST tendency (north-cooling and south-warming), and (d) decreasing SLP tendency over northern Asia in the previous season. The enhanced PI-R was lead by the central-eastern Pacific cooling and 2-m temperature cooling tendency east of Lake Balkhash in the previous seasons. These causative processes linking the predictors and WCI-R and PI-R are supported by ensemble numerical experiments using a coupled climate model. For the period of 1871-2012, the physics-based empirical (P-E) prediction models built on these predictors result in cross-validated forecast temporal correlation coefficient skills of 0.55 and 0.47 for WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The independent forecast skill is significantly

  8. Contribution of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks to Holocene climate change in monsoonal Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dallmeyer

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The impact of vegetation-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere interactions on the mid- to late Holocene climate change as well as their synergy is studied for different parts of the Asian monsoon region, giving consideration to the large climatic and topographical heterogeneity in that area. We concentrate on temperature and precipitation changes as the main parameters describing monsoonal influenced climates. For our purpose, we analyse a set of coupled numerical experiments, performed with the comprehensive Earth system model ECHAM5/JSBACH-MPIOM under present-day and mid-Holocene (6 k orbital configurations (Otto et al., 2009b. The temperature change caused by the insolation forcing reveals an enhanced seasonal cycle, with a pronounced warming in summer (0.58 K and autumn (1.29 K and a cooling in the other seasons (spring: -1.32 K; winter: -0.97 K. Most of this change can be attributed to the direct response of the atmosphere, but the ocean, whose reaction has a lagged seasonal cycle (warming in autumn and winter, cooling in the other seasons, strongly modifies the signal. The simulated contribution of dynamic vegetation is small and most effective in winter, where it slightly warms the near-surface atmosphere (approx. 0.03 K. The temperature difference attributed to the synergy is on average positive, but also small. Concerning the precipitation, the most remarkable change is the postponement and enhancement of the Asian monsoon (0.46 mm/day in summer, 0.53 mm/day in autumn, mainly related to the direct atmospheric response. On regional average, the interactive ocean (ca. 0.18 mm/day amplifies the direct effect, but tends to weaken the East Asian summer monsoon and strongly increases the Indian summer monsoon rainfall rate (0.68 mm/day. The influence of dynamic vegetation on precipitation is comparatively small (<0.04 mm/day. The synergy effect has no influence, on average.

  9. High biological productivity in the central Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon driven by Ekman pumping and lateral advection

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Madhupratap, M.; DileepKumar, M.; Muraleedharan, P.M.; DeSouza, S.N.; Gauns, M.; Sarma, V.V.S.S.

    measurements were made a c- cording to JGOFS protocols 10 . Due to rough weather conditions, bi o logical measurements during summer 1995 were confined to 11 o N in open w a ters. During the 1994 Spring Intermonsoon along 64 ?E, co l umn chlorophyll - a... the mixed layer indicating that nutr i ents were, in fact, available in the euphotic layer. Undetec t- able levels of nitrate in the surface layers of the sout h- ern reg ion were presumably due to rapid bi o logical uptake. In order to gain an insight...

  10. Decadal to multi-decadal scale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan; Stickler, Alexander; Raible, Christoph C.; Muthers, Stefan; Anet, Julien; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmutz, Werner

    2017-01-01

    The present study is an effort to deepen the understanding of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. We use ensemble simulations for the period AD 1600-2000 carried out by the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry-Climate Model (AOCCM) SOCOL-MPIOM. Firstly, the SOCOL-MPIOM is evaluated using observational and reanalyses datasets. The model is able to realistically simulate the ISMR as well as relevant patterns of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. Further, the influence of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on ISMR is realistically simulated. Secondly, we investigate the impact of internal climate variability and external climate forcings on ISMR on decadal to multi-decadal timescales over the past 400 years. The results show that AMO, PDO, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) play a considerable role in controlling the wet and dry decades of ISMR. Resembling observational findings most of the dry decades of ISMR occur during a negative phase of AMO and a simultaneous positive phase of PDO. The observational and simulated datasets reveal that on decadal to multi-decadal timescales the ISMR has consistent negative correlation with PDO whereas its correlation with AMO and TSI is not stationary over time.

  11. Decadal to multi-decadal scale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan; Stickler, Alexander; Raible, Christoph C.; Muthers, Stefan; Anet, Julien; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmutz, Werner

    2017-11-01

    The present study is an effort to deepen the understanding of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. We use ensemble simulations for the period AD 1600-2000 carried out by the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry-Climate Model (AOCCM) SOCOL-MPIOM. Firstly, the SOCOL-MPIOM is evaluated using observational and reanalyses datasets. The model is able to realistically simulate the ISMR as well as relevant patterns of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. Further, the influence of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on ISMR is realistically simulated. Secondly, we investigate the impact of internal climate variability and external climate forcings on ISMR on decadal to multi-decadal timescales over the past 400 years. The results show that AMO, PDO, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) play a considerable role in controlling the wet and dry decades of ISMR. Resembling observational findings most of the dry decades of ISMR occur during a negative phase of AMO and a simultaneous positive phase of PDO. The observational and simulated datasets reveal that on decadal to multi-decadal timescales the ISMR has consistent negative correlation with PDO whereas its correlation with AMO and TSI is not stationary over time.

  12. Wind-driven intensification of the Tsushima Warm Current along the Japanese coast detected by sea level difference in the summer monsoon of 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takikawa, Tetsutaro; Watanabe, Toshiteru; Senjyu, Tomoharu; Morimoto, Akihiko

    2017-07-01

    This study found an unusually large variation in the coastal sea level difference (SLD) in the southwestern Japan Sea from July to October 2013. The time and horizontal scales were about 4 months and 1000 km along the coast, respectively. During the exceptionally hot summer of 2013, strong monsoon winds blew through the Tsushima Straits into the southwestern Japan Sea, because the North Pacific High was located farther west than average. The southwesterly winds averaged 7 m s-1 parallel to the coast in July 2013, resulting in Ekman transport toward the coast. The most noticeable SLD was measured between Omijima and Mishima, normal to the 250 km rectilinear coastal line. The velocity of the first branch of the Tsushima Warm Current increased to about 50 cm s-1 between Omijima and Mishima from late July to early August. Although the SLD seemed to simultaneously increase and decrease along the Japanese coast with large time scale, the variation in coastal SLD propagated along the Japanese coast, reaching Niigata-nishi in the eastern Japan Sea. The propagation speed in the wide continental shelf of the southern Japan Sea was much higher than that in the narrow eastern shelf, which was consistent with the behavior of continental shelf waves.

  13. Impacts of Asian emissions on ozone air quality over western U.S. in spring and summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, M.; Fiore, A. M.; Cooper, O. R.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Wyman, B.; Alvarez, R. J., II; Banta, R. M.; Bahreini, R.; Holloway, J. S.; Hardesty, R.; Johnson, B. J.; Langford, A. O.; Middlebrook, A. M.; Oltmans, S. J.; Pollack, I. B.; Ryerson, T. B.; Senff, C. J.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Ziemke, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    conduct AM3 model simulations at multiple horizontal resolutions (currently ~2 degrees with a target resolution of 0.25 degrees) to gauge the relative importance of synoptic (e.g. large-scale subsidence over the western U.S. following warm conveyor belt transport in spring) vs. meso-scale (e.g. surface-heating driven mountain-valley flow and land-sea breezes in summer) processes in controlling daily to seasonal variability of Asian pollution in the free troposphere and subsequent mixing into the western U.S. boundary layer. We will further explore the role of Asian emissions in exceedances of the 8-hour 70 ppbv ozone standard in the state of California.

  14. Variation of the Tropical Upper-tropospheric Trough and Its Linkage to the Asian-Pacific-North American Summer Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Kaiqiang; Yang, Song

    2016-04-01

    The tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) is one of the most prominent features in Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer, which peaks at 200-150 hPa in July and August. It is found that the TUTT varies largely from year to year, which indicates that the TUTT may exert great effects on the NH summer climate. In order to explore the causes that lead to the interannual variations of the TUTT, an area-weighted empirical orthogonal function decomposition analysis was applied to. The first mode reflects the northeastward-southwestward displacement of the TUTT, which is significantly related to the planetary wave originating from the Indo-western Pacific during a developing La Niña. The second mode presents the intensity change of the TUTT, which is attributed to the enhanced convection over the central Pacific where the anomalous warming sea surface temperature is appearing. The third mode shows the northwestward-southeastward displacement of the TUTT, which is correlated well with the north-south direction shift of east Asian westerly jet. Anomalous warming over the midlatitudes and cooling over the subtropics suggests a decreased meridional temperature gradient, which results in the northward displacement of westerly jet. The variations of TUTT's location and strength have distinct effects on the variation of South Asian high, the northwestern Pacific subtropical high, and the Mexican high, which subsequently modulate the climate anomalies in different regions.

  15. The effects of monsoons and climate teleconnections on the Niangziguan Karst Spring discharge in North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Juan; Hao, Yonghong; Hu, Bill X.; Huo, Xueli; Hao, Pengmei; Liu, Zhongfang

    2017-01-01

    Karst aquifers supply drinking water for 25 % of the world's population, and they are, however, vulnerable to climate change. This study is aimed to investigate the effects of various monsoons and teleconnection patterns on Niangziguan Karst Spring (NKS) discharge in North China for sustainable exploration of the karst groundwater resources. The monsoons studied include the Indian Summer Monsoon, the West North Pacific Monsoon and the East Asian Summer Monsoon. The climate teleconnection patterns explored include the Indian Ocean Dipole, E1 Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The wavelet transform and wavelet coherence methods are used to analyze the karst hydrological processes in the NKS Basin, and reveal the relations between the climate indices with precipitation and the spring discharge. The study results indicate that both the monsoons and the climate teleconnections significantly affect precipitation in the NKS Basin. The time scales that the monsoons resonate with precipitation are strongly concentrated on the time scales of 0.5-, 1-, 2.5- and 3.5-year, and that climate teleconnections resonate with precipitation are relatively weak and diverged from 0.5-, 1-, 2-, 2.5-, to 8-year time scales, respectively. Because the climate signals have to overcome the resistance of heterogeneous aquifers before reaching spring discharge, with high energy, the strong climate signals (e.g. monsoons) are able to penetrate through aquifers and act on spring discharge. So the spring discharge is more strongly affected by monsoons than the climate teleconnections. During the groundwater flow process, the precipitation signals will be attenuated, delayed, merged, and changed by karst aquifers. Therefore, the coherence coefficients between the spring discharge and climate indices are smaller than those between precipitation and climate indices. Further, the fluctuation of the spring discharge is not coincident with that of precipitation in most

  16. Decoding the drivers of bank erosion on the Mekong river: The roles of the Asian monsoon, tropical storms, and snowmelt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, Stephen E; Leyland, Julian; Kummu, Matti; Räsänen, Timo A; Lauri, Hannu

    2013-01-01

    We evaluate links between climate and simulated river bank erosion for one of the world's largest rivers, the Mekong. We employ a process-based model to reconstruct multidecadal time series of bank erosion at study sites within the Mekong's two main hydrological response zones, defining a new parameter, accumulated excess runoff (AER), pertinent to bank erosion. We employ a hydrological model to isolate how snowmelt, tropical storms and monsoon precipitation each contribute to AER and thus modeled bank erosion. Our results show that melt (23.9% at the upstream study site, declining to 11.1% downstream) and tropical cyclones (17.5% and 26.4% at the upstream and downstream sites, respectively) both force significant fractions of bank erosion on the Mekong. We also show (i) small, but significant, declines in AER and hence assumed bank erosion during the 20th century, and; (ii) that significant correlations exist between AER and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Of these modes of climate variability, we find that IOD events exert a greater control on simulated bank erosion than ENSO events; but the influences of both ENSO and IOD when averaged over several decades are found to be relatively weak. However, importantly, relationships between ENSO, IOD, and AER and hence inferred river bank erosion are not time invariant. Specifically, we show that there is an intense and prolonged epoch of strong coherence between ENSO and AER from the early 1980s to present, such that in recent decades derived Mekong River bank erosion has been more strongly affected by ENSO. PMID:23926362

  17. Why do global climate models struggle to represent low-level clouds in the West African summer monsoon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knippertz, Peter; Hannak, Lisa; Fink, Andreas H.; Kniffka, Anke; Pante, Gregor

    2017-04-01

    Climate models struggle to realistically represent the West African monsoon (WAM), which hinders reliable future projections and the development of adequate adaption measures. Low-level clouds over southern West Africa (5-10°N, 8°W-8°E) during July-September are an integral part of the WAM through their effect on the surface energy balance and precipitation, but their representation in climate models has so far received little attention. These clouds usually form during the night near the level of the nocturnal low-level jet ( 950 hPa), thicken and spread until the mid-morning ( 09 UTC), and then break up and rise in the course of the day, typically to about 850 hPa. The low thermal contrast to the surface and the frequent presence of obscuring higher-level clouds make detection of the low-level clouds from space rather challenging. Here we use 30 years of output from 18 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) as well as 20 years of output from 8 models participating in the Year of Tropical Convection (YoTC) experiments to identify cloud biases and their causes. A great advantage of the YoTC dataset is the 6-hourly output frequency, which allows an analysis of the diurnal cycle, and the availability of temperature and moisture tendencies from parameterized processes such as convection, radiation and boundary-layer turbulence. A comparison to earlier analyses based on CMIP3 output reveals rather limited improvements with regard to the represenation of low-level cloud and winds. Compared to ERA-Interim re-analyses, which shows satisfactory agreement with surface observations, many of the CMIP5 and YoTC models still have large biases in low-level cloudiness of both signs and a tendency to too high elevation and too weak diurnal cycles. At the same time, these models tend to have too strong low-level jets, the impact of which is unclear due to concomitant effects on temperature and moisture advection as well as turbulent

  18. An aircraft gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer System for Organic Fast Identification Analysis (SOFIA): design, performance and a case study of Asian monsoon pollution outflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourtsoukidis, Efstratios; Helleis, Frank; Tomsche, Laura; Fischer, Horst; Hofmann, Rolf; Lelieveld, Jos; Williams, Jonathan

    2017-12-01

    Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are important for global air quality and oxidation processes in the troposphere. In addition to ground-based measurements, the chemical evolution of such species during transport can be studied by performing in situ airborne measurements. Generally, aircraft instrumentation needs to be sensitive, robust and sample at higher frequency than ground-based systems while their construction must comply with rigorous mechanical and electrical safety standards. Here, we present a new System for Organic Fast Identification Analysis (SOFIA), which is a custom-built fast gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) system with a time resolution of 2-3 min and the ability to quantify atmospheric mixing ratios of halocarbons (e.g. chloromethanes), hydrocarbons (e.g isoprene), oxygenated VOCs (acetone, propanal, butanone) and aromatics (e.g. benzene, toluene) from sub-ppt to ppb levels. The relatively high time resolution is the result of a novel cryogenic pre-concentration unit which rapidly cools (˜ 6 °C s-1) the sample enrichment traps to -140 °C, and a new chromatographic oven designed for rapid cooling rates (˜ 30 °C s-1) and subsequent thermal stabilization. SOFIA was installed in the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) for the Oxidation Mechanism Observations (OMO) campaign in August 2015, aimed at investigating the Asian monsoon pollution outflow in the tropical upper troposphere. In addition to a comprehensive instrument characterization we present an example monsoon plume crossing flight as a case study to demonstrate the instrument capability. Hydrocarbon, halocarbon and oxygenated VOC data from SOFIA are compared with mixing ratios of carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4), used to define the pollution plume. By using excess (ExMR) and normalized excess mixing ratios (NEMRs) the pollution could be attributed to two air masses of distinctly different origin, identified by back-trajectory analysis. This work

  19. An aircraft gas chromatograph–mass spectrometer System for Organic Fast Identification Analysis (SOFIA: design, performance and a case study of Asian monsoon pollution outflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bourtsoukidis

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Volatile organic compounds (VOCs are important for global air quality and oxidation processes in the troposphere. In addition to ground-based measurements, the chemical evolution of such species during transport can be studied by performing in situ airborne measurements. Generally, aircraft instrumentation needs to be sensitive, robust and sample at higher frequency than ground-based systems while their construction must comply with rigorous mechanical and electrical safety standards. Here, we present a new System for Organic Fast Identification Analysis (SOFIA, which is a custom-built fast gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS system with a time resolution of 2–3 min and the ability to quantify atmospheric mixing ratios of halocarbons (e.g. chloromethanes, hydrocarbons (e.g isoprene, oxygenated VOCs (acetone, propanal, butanone and aromatics (e.g. benzene, toluene from sub-ppt to ppb levels. The relatively high time resolution is the result of a novel cryogenic pre-concentration unit which rapidly cools (∼ 6 °C s−1 the sample enrichment traps to −140 °C, and a new chromatographic oven designed for rapid cooling rates (∼ 30 °C s−1 and subsequent thermal stabilization. SOFIA was installed in the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO for the Oxidation Mechanism Observations (OMO campaign in August 2015, aimed at investigating the Asian monsoon pollution outflow in the tropical upper troposphere. In addition to a comprehensive instrument characterization we present an example monsoon plume crossing flight as a case study to demonstrate the instrument capability. Hydrocarbon, halocarbon and oxygenated VOC data from SOFIA are compared with mixing ratios of carbon monoxide (CO and methane (CH4, used to define the pollution plume. By using excess (ExMR and normalized excess mixing ratios (NEMRs the pollution could be attributed to two air masses of distinctly different origin, identified by back

  20. Assessing the role of local air-sea interaction over the South Asia region in simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) using the new earth system model RegCM-ES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Sante, Fabio; Coppola, Erika; Farneti, Riccardo; Giorgi, Filippo

    2017-04-01

    The South Asia climate is dominated by the monsoon precipitation that divides the climate in two different seasons, the wet and dry seasons, and it influences the lives of billions of peoples. The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) has different temporal and spatial scales of variability and it is mainly driven by strong air sea interactions. The monsoon interannual variability (IAV) and the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of daily rainfall are the two most important scale of analysis of this phenomenon. In this work, the Regional Earth System Model (RegCM-ES) (Sitz et al, 2016) is used to simulate the South Asia climate. Several model settings are experimented to assess the sensitivity of the monsoon system like for example two different cumulous convection schemes (Tidtke, 1989 and Emanuel, 1991), two different lateral boundary conditions in the regional ocean model (NOAA/Geophysical 5 Fluid Dynamics Laboratory MOM run, Danabasoglu et al 2014; and ORAP reanalysis, Zuo et Al 2015) and two different hydrological models (Cetemps Hydrological Model, Coppola et al, 2007; Max-Planck's HD model, Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998) for a total of 5 coupled and uncoupled simulations all covering the period from 1979 to 2008. One of the main results of the analysis of the mini RegCM-ES ensemble shows that a better representation of the IAV and of the ENSO-monsoon relationship is present in the coupled simulations. Moreover a source of monsoon predictability has been found in the one-year-lag correlation between JJAS India precipitation and ENSO, this is only evident in the coupled system where the one-year-lagged correlation coefficient between the Niño-3.4 and the ISM rainfall is much higher respect to the uncoupled one and similar to values observed between the observations and the Niño-3.4. For the subseasonal time scale, RegCM-ES shows better performance compared to the standalone version of RegCM4 (Giorgi et al 2012), in reproducing "active" and "break" spells that characterize

  1. SEACIONS During the 2012 Asian Monsoon: A Strategic Approach to Determining Convective Impacts on Tropospheric Ozone and TTL Gravity Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Anne M. (Principal Investigator); Young, George S. (Principal Investigator); Morris, Gary; Johnson, Bryan; Oltmans, Samuel; Selkirk, Henry B.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of making ozone and water vapor profiles measurements in SEAC4RS is to give consistent coverage of the vertical structure at fixed sites to (1) complement 2 campaign aircraft sampling; (2) ground-truth satellite measurements of H O and ozone; (3) provide profiles for model evaluation; (4) study processes responsible for day-to-day variability at each site. Revised objective for 2013, due to cancellation of the 2012 and 2013 plans to operate in Southeast Asia: rapidly re-configure the original "SEACIONS," Southeast Asian Consortium for Intensive Ozonesonde Network Study, to a SouthEast American plan (SEACIONS) for collecting daily ozonesonde data during DC-8 and ER-2 flights throughout the southeastern US. As in previous IONS (2004, 2006, 2008), students were trained at St Louis, Tallahassee, Houston, Penn State, Huntsville, Socorro. Images of the soundings and related flight-planning products were posted each day at NASA and Penn State (PSU) websites. With the aircraft based at Ellington Field (Houston), water CFH (cryogenic frost-point hygrometer) sondes in addition to ozonesondes, were to be taken launched at that site.

  2. A glimpse of the Quaternary monsoon history from India and adjoining seas

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Saraswat, R.; Nigam, R.; Correge, T.

    in modulating northern hemispheric climate. The glacial terminations are marked by weak monsoon activity. The summer monsoon weakened during the Middle Holocene after the Early Holocene optimum. A change in the monsoon intensity though alters the salinity...

  3. Statistical bias correction method applied on CMIP5 datasets over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season for climate change applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasanna, V.

    2018-01-01

    This study makes use of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 climate model output for climate change application studies over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (JJAS). Bias correction of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 GCM simulation results with respect to observation is discussed in detail. The non-linear statistical bias correction is a suitable bias correction method for climate change data because it is simple and does not add up artificial uncertainties to the impact assessment of climate change scenarios for climate change application studies (agricultural production changes) in the future. The simple statistical bias correction uses observational constraints on the GCM baseline, and the projected results are scaled with respect to the changing magnitude in future scenarios, varying from one model to the other. Two types of bias correction techniques are shown here: (1) a simple bias correction using a percentile-based quantile-mapping algorithm and (2) a simple but improved bias correction method, a cumulative distribution function (CDF; Weibull distribution function)-based quantile-mapping algorithm. This study shows that the percentile-based quantile mapping method gives results similar to the CDF (Weibull)-based quantile mapping method, and both the methods are comparable. The bias correction is applied on temperature and precipitation variables for present climate and future projected data to make use of it in a simple statistical model to understand the future changes in crop production over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season. In total, 12 CMIP5 models are used for Historical (1901-2005), RCP4.5 (2005-2100), and RCP8.5 (2005-2100) scenarios. The climate index from each CMIP5 model and the observed agricultural yield index over the Indian region are used in a regression model to project the changes in the agricultural yield over India from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results revealed a better

  4. Characteristics of the Extreme Low Temperature Events in Winter Half Year in China and Its Relationship to East Asian Winter Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Yongqiu; Zhou, Lian-Tong

    2017-04-01

    Based on daily minimum temperature dataset from 553 stations from 1961 to 2012 in China, extreme low temperature (ELT) thresholds are determined for different stations and occurrence frequency of ELT events in winter half year for each station is estimated and analyzed. And then several partitions in China are divided by empirical orthogonal function and it is verified to be credible by correlation analysis. Meanwhile, the spatial and temporal distribution of ELT events in each sub-region is diagnosed. Finally, the relationship between ELT events and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) circulation is studied by doing some correlation analysis. The results suggest that: the ELT events in winter half year in China are remarkably decreased in recent 51 years, but there are some differences between southern and northern areas. From 1964 to 1980, the ELT events in northeast, north and northwest of China are more than average and that are less than average in south, east and southwest of China, while it is just the reverse from 1981 to 1996. Moreover, the distribution of ELT events also shows a longitudinal oscillation. The correlation analysis between the frequency of ELT events in winter half year and EAWM index indicates that the two has good correlation with each other. And meanwhile, the correlation analysis between the frequency of ELT events in winter half year and sea level pressure shows that the former has a good positive correlation with Siberian High. Besides, the distribution of the difference between two period mean sea level pressure, from 1961 to 1979 and from 1980 to 2011, shows that Siberian High has an obviously southwardly movement and a trend of weakening after 1980, which go against the outbreak of the cold, that is why the ELT events in winter half year in most areas of China have an abrupt decrease.

  5. Lake records of Northern Hemisphere South American summer monsoon variability from the Cordillera Oriental, Colombia: Initial results from Lago de Tota and Laguna de Ubaque

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, J.; Rudloff, O.; Bird, B. W.

    2013-12-01

    The lack of terrestrial paleoclimate records from the Northern Hemisphere Andes with decadal resolution has meant that our understanding of abrupt South American summer monsoon (SASM) variability during the Holocene is almost exclusively based on data from Southern Hemisphere sites. In order to develop a more integrated and complete picture of the SASM as a system and its response during rapid climate changes, high-resolution paleoclimate records are needed from the Northern Hemisphere Andes. We present initial results from analysis of lake sediment cores that were collected from Lago de Tota (N 5.554, W 72.916) and Laguna de Ubaque (N 4.500, W 73.935) in the Eastern Cordillera of the Colombian Andes. These sediment cores were collected in July 2013 as part on an ongoing paleoclimate research initiative in Colombia. Located in the Boyacá Provence, Lago de Tota is the largest high-altitude lake (3010 masl) in the Northern Hemisphere Andes and the second largest Andean lake in South America. As such, hydrologic changes recorded in the lake's sediment record reflect regional climate responses. Lago de Ubaque (2070 masl) is a small east facing moraine-dammed lake near the capital of Bogotá that contains finely laminated clastic sediments. The initial sedimentological and chronological results demonstrate that Lago de Tota and Laguna de Ubaque have excellent potential for resolving Northern Hemisphere SASM variability at decadal time scales or better. Such records will provide important counterparts to high-resolution paleoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere Andes.

  6. Late Quaternary Planktic Foraminifer Fauna andMonsoon Upwelling Records from the Western South China Sea, Near the Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pai-Sen Yu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Marine sediment core MD012394 from the Vietnam coastal upwelling area in the western South China Sea was investigated in order to reconstruct the last Quaternary monsoon upwelling based on planktic foraminifer fauna assemblages and fauna-based sea surface temperature (SST estimates. The age model of core MD012394 was constructed using oxygen isotope stratigraphy of the planktic foraminifer G. sacculifer, with 10 accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS 14C dating of planktic foraminifers from the sediment samples. Our studies on the relative and absolute abundances of planktic foraminifer assemblages reveal eight dominant species in core MD012394: N. dutertrei + N. pachyderma (right coiling, G. ruber, G. glutinata, G. sacculifer, P. obliquiloculata, G. menardii + G. tumida, G. calida, and G. inflata. In a Q-mode factor analysis of the fauna abundance data, the fauna factors show variations that do not parallel the glacial/interglacial changes throughout the last 135 kyr. The relative abundance patterns of G. inflata and N. dutertrei (including N. pachyderma-R are interpreted as hydrographic proxies for East Asian summer and winter monsoon, respectively, in the current study. We calculated the fluctuations in the SST using the Revised Analog Method (RAM in MD012394 and found that the abundance changes of the summer monsoon upwelling indicator G. inflata were similar and nearly synchronous. This suggests that the summer monsoon-driven upwelling signal was strong near the local summer insolation maximum, which induced low SSTs, particular around ~11, 33, 59, and 83 kya. Our studies support the view that the strengths of both summer insolation and the East Asian summer monsoon have determined the relative abundance of planktic foraminifers and the SSTs in the western SCS during the last 135 kyr.

  7. On the unstable ENSO-Western North Pacific Monsoon relation during the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega Martín, Inmaculada; Gallego Puyol, David; Ribera Rodriguez, Pedro; Gómez Delgado, Francisco de Paula; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. Unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon, the WNPSM is an oceanic monsoon driven essentially by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Although this monsoon is mainly oceanic, it modulates the precipitation of densely populated areas such as the Philippines. To date, the WNPSM has been quantified by the so-called Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI), an index based on wind anomalies over large domains of the Western Pacific. The requirement of continuous observed wind over remote oceanic areas to compute the WNPMI has limited its availability to the 1949-2014 period. In this work we have extended the index by almost 100 years by using historical observations of wind direction taken aboard ships. Our Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI), is defined as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and easterly winds in [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. The new WNPDI index is highly correlated to the existent WNPMI for the concurrent period (1948-2014). (r=+0.88, pCompetitividad through the project INCITE (CGL2013-44530-P, BES-2014-069733).

  8. Global monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Z.; Kutzbach, J. [Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1225 W. Dayton Street, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Harrison, S.P. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 100164, 07701 Jena (Germany); Otto-Bliesner, B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States)

    2004-03-01

    The response of the six major summer monsoon systems (the North American monsoon, the northern Africa monsoon, the Asia monsoon, the northern Australasian monsoon, the South America monsoon and the southern Africa monsoon) to mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM), with the focus on the distinct roles of the direct insolation forcing and oceanic feedback. The simulation result is also found to compare well with the NCAR CSM. The direct effects of the change in insolation produce an enhancement of the Northern Hemisphere monsoons and a reduction of the Southern Hemisphere monsoons. Ocean feedbacks produce a further enhancement of the northern Africa monsoon and the North American monsoon. However, ocean feedbacks appear to weaken the Asia monsoon, although the overall effect (direct insolation forcing plus ocean feedback) remains a strengthened monsoon. The impact of ocean feedbacks on the South American and southern African monsoons is relatively small, and therefore these regions, especially the South America, experienced a reduced monsoon regime compared to present. However, there is a strong ocean feedback on the northern Australian monsoon that negates the direct effects of orbital changes and results in a strengthening of austral summer monsoon precipitation in this region. A new synthesis is made for mid-Holocene paleoenvironmental records and is compared with the model simulations. Overall, model simulations produce changes in regional climates that are generally consistent with paleoenvironmental observations. (orig.)

  9. On the role of sea surface temperature variability over the Tropical Indian Ocean in relation to summer monsoon using satellite data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Muraleedharan, P.M.; Sathe, P.V.

    week). 80.58E) and the weekly rainfall over different meteoro- logical subdivisions for different lags. Evidently there isFurther it was seen that the SCZASST was found to be negatively and significantly correlated with the monsoon positive...- lated with monsoon rainfall over several meteoro- nama Charyulu, R. J., and Gangdhara Rao, L. V. (1988), Sea logical subdivisions with the maximum correlation surface temperature mapping using a thermal infrared scan- ner. Mahasagar 21:67–74.in the same...

  10. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

    2017-03-01

    We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

  11. Desert Dust and Monsoon Rain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2014-01-01

    For centuries, inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent have know that heavy dust events brought on by strong winds occur frequently in the pre-monsoon season, before the onset of heavy rain. Yet scientists have never seriously considered the possibility that natural dust can affect monsoon rainfall. Up to now, most studies of the impacts of aerosols on Indian monsoon rainfall have focused on anthropogenic aerosols in the context of climate change. However, a few recent studies have show that aerosols from antropogenic and natural sources over the Indian subcontinent may affect the transition from break to active monsoon phases on short timescales of days to weeks. Writing in Nature Geoscience, Vinoj and colleagues describe how they have shown that desert dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia can strenghten the summer monsoon over the Indial subcontinent in a matter of days.

  12. Joint influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and Northern Arabian Sea Temperatures on the Indian Summer Monsoon in a Global Climate Model Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Proxy-based studies confirmed that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shows large variations during the Holocene. These changes might be explained by changes in orbital conditions and solar insolation but are also thought to be associated to changes in oceanic conditions, e.g. over the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool region. However, due to the nature of these (proxy-based) analyses no conclusion about atmospheric circulation changes during dry and wet epochs are possible. Here, a fully-coupled global climate simulation (AOGCM) covering the past 6000 years is analysed regarding ISM variability. Several dry and wet epochs are found, the most striking around 2ka BP (dry) and 1.7ka BP (wet). As only orbital parameters change during integration, we expect these "shorter-term" changes to be associated with changes in oceanic conditions. During 1.7ka BP the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Northern Arabian Sea (NARAB) are significantly warmer compared to 2ka BP, whereas cooler conditions are found over the western Pacific Ocean. Additionally, significant differences are found over large parts of the North Atlantic. To explain in how far these different ocean basins are responsible for anomalous conditions during 1.7ka BP, several sensitivity experiments with changed SST/SIC conditions are carried out. It is found that neither the SST's in the Pacific nor in the Indian Ocean are able to reproduce the anomalous rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns during 1.7ka on its own. Instead, anomalous dry conditions during 2ka BP and wet conditions during 1.7ka BP are associated with a shift of the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool (IPWP) and simultaneous anomalous sea-surface temperatures over the NARAB region. Eventually, it is tested in how far this hypothesis holds true for other dry and wet events in the AOGCM data during the whole 6000 years. In general, a shift of the IPWP without anomalous SST conditions over the NARAB region (and vice versa) is not sufficient to cause long

  13. Topographic effect of Sub-scale Mountains around the main Tibetan Plateau on Asian climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sha, Yingying; Shi, Zhengguo

    2017-04-01

    As one of the most important tectonic events in Cenozoic, the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is considered to have profound influences on the evolution of Asian climate.However, the potential influence from the sub-scale mountains around the main TP is largely neglected. In actual, these sub-scale mountains may affect some climate systems, which facilitates from their sensitive locations. Taking the Mongolian Plateau (MP) and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (YGP, SW China) as examples, they are located at the core paths of mid-latitude winter westerly and Indian summer southwesterly monsoon, respectively, and seem to significantly block the eastward propagation of these systems from modern climatological data. In this study, general circulation model experiments with and without mountains are employed to evaluate the topographic effect of MP and YGP on the Asian climate. The results show that, the MP, despite its smaller size, exerts a great influence on the strengthened winter climate over East Asia, including the East Asian trough, the subtropical westerly jet and the winter monsoon. The YGP, however, plays an opposite role in the Indian monsoon change, compared to the main TP. It weakens the Indian summer monsoon circulation and associated precipitation. Thus, the response of Asian climate to the mountain uplift depends closely on the actual distributions of topography rather than a simplified bulk of main TP.

  14. Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhanqing; Lau, W. K.-M.; Ramanathan, V.; Wu, G.; Ding, Y.; Manoj, M. G.; Liu, J.; Qian, Y.; Li, J.; Zhou, T.; Fan, J.; Rosenfeld, D.; Ming, Y.; Wang, Y.; Huang, J.; Wang, B.; Xu, X.; Lee, S.-S.; Cribb, M.; Zhang, F.; Yang, X.; Zhao, C.; Takemura, T.; Wang, K.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zhang, H.; Guo, J.; Zhai, P. M.; Sugimoto, N.; Babu, S. S.; Brasseur, G. P.

    2016-12-01

    The increasing severity of droughts/floods and worsening air quality from increasing aerosols in Asia monsoon regions are the two gravest threats facing over 60% of the world population living in Asian monsoon regions. These dual threats have fueled a large body of research in the last decade on the roles of aerosols in impacting Asian monsoon weather and climate. This paper provides a comprehensive review of studies on Asian aerosols, monsoons, and their interactions. The Asian monsoon region is a primary source of emissions of diverse species of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural origins. The distributions of aerosol loading are strongly influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes, which are, in turn, modulated by aerosol effects. On a continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulations. The atmospheric thermodynamic state, which determines the formation of clouds, convection, and precipitation, may also be altered by aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and desert dust in Asian monsoon regions may also induce dynamical feedback processes, leading to a strengthening of the early monsoon and affecting the subsequent evolution of the monsoon. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of different monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from

  15. A new centennial index to study the Western North Pacific Monsoon decadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, Inmaculada; Gómez-Delgado, F. de Paula; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; García-Herrera, Ricardo

    2016-04-01

    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. It is, unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), an oceanic monsoon mostly driven by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Up to now, the primary index to characterize the WNPSM has been the Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI) which covers the 1949-2013 period. The original WNPMI was defined as the difference of 850-hPa westerlies between two regions: D1 [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and D2 [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. Both domains are included in the main historical ship routes circumnavigating Asia for hundreds of years. Many of the logbooks of these ships have been preserved in historical archives and they usually contain daily observations of wind force and direction. Therefore, it has been possible to compute a new index of instrumental character, which reconstructs the WNPSM back to the middle of the 19th Century, by using solely historical wind direction records preserved in logbooks. We define the monthly Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI) as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in D1 and easterly winds in D2. The advantages of this new index are its nature (instrumental) and its length (1849-2013), which is 100 years longer than the WNPMI (which was based on reanalysis data). Our WNPDI shows a high correlation (r=+0.87, pCompetitividad through the project INCITE (CGL2013-44530-P, BES-2014-069733).

  16. Long-range forecast of all India summer monsoon rainfall using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system: skill comparison with CFSv2 model simulation and real-time forecast for the year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhuri, S.; Das, D.; Goswami, S.; Das, S. K.

    2016-11-01

    All India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) characteristics play a vital role for the policy planning and national economy of the country. In view of the significant impact of monsoon system on regional as well as global climate systems, accurate prediction of summer monsoon rainfall has become a challenge. The objective of this study is to develop an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for long range forecast of AISMR. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels have been taken to construct the input matrix of ANFIS. The membership of the input parameters for AISMR as high, medium or low is estimated with trapezoidal membership function. The fuzzified standardized input parameters and the de-fuzzified target output are trained with artificial neural network models. The forecast of AISMR with ANFIS is compared with non-hybrid multi-layer perceptron model (MLP), radial basis functions network (RBFN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. The forecast error analyses of the models reveal that ANFIS provides the best forecast of AISMR with minimum prediction error of 0.076, whereas the errors with MLP, RBFN and MLR models are 0.22, 0.18 and 0.73 respectively. During validation with observations, ANFIS shows its potency over the said comparative models. Performance of the ANFIS model is verified through different statistical skill scores, which also confirms the aptitude of ANFIS in forecasting AISMR. The forecast skill of ANFIS is also observed to be better than Climate Forecast System version 2. The real-time forecast with ANFIS shows possibility of deficit (65-75 cm) AISMR in the year 2015.