WorldWideScience

Sample records for approach international climate

  1. Climate Justice: A Constitutional Approach to Unify the Lex Specialis Principles of International Climate Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Thorp

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Legal principles legitimise ubiquitous social values. They make certain social norms lawful and legitimate. Legal principles may act as governing vectors. They may give effect to a unified and legitimate constitutional framework insofar as a constitution unifies the fundamental principles on which a state or competent authority is governed.Concerning international climate law, however, there is a certain shortcoming. The failure to comprehend a unified constitutional framework of lex specialis principles could debilitate intra and inter-regime governance and lead to uncertainties. At one time, uncertainties incite the law-making process. At another time, they constrain it. Such a shortcoming may lead to inconsistencies in interpreting consequential climate norms. It may thwart dispute resolution and it may impede climate negotiations. To traverse this abyss, the inquiry uses instruments of legal philosophy (the philosophy of language, legal systematics (the study of legal systems, and legal hermeneutics (the legal practice of interpretation to delineate, distinguish and unify lex specialis principles that could form the foundations of a universal constitutional framework of international climate law. In doing so, it shows that climate justice is a function of the quality of the legal system.

  2. An Online Approach for Training International Climate Scientists to Use Computer Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarker, M. B.; Mesquita, M. D.; Veldore, V.

    2013-12-01

    With the mounting evidence by the work of IPCC (2007), climate change has been acknowledged as a significant challenge to Sustainable Development by the international community. It is important that scientists in developing countries have access to knowledge and tools so that well-informed decisions can be made about the mitigation and adaptation of climate change. However, training researchers to use climate modeling techniques and data analysis has become a challenge, because current capacity building approaches train researchers to use climate models through short-term workshops, which requires a large amount of funding. It has also been observed that many participants who recently completed capacity building courses still view climate and weather models as a metaphorical 'black box', where data goes in and results comes out; and there is evidence that these participants lack a basic understanding of the climate system. Both of these issues limit the ability of some scientists to go beyond running a model based on rote memorization of the process. As a result, they are unable to solve problems regarding run-time errors, thus cannot determine whether or not their model simulation is reasonable. Current research in the field of science education indicates that there are effective strategies to teach learners about science models. They involve having the learner work with, experiment with, modify, and apply models in a way that is significant and informative to the learner. It has also been noted that in the case of computational models, the installation and set up process alone can be time consuming and confusing for new users, which can hinder their ability to concentrate on using, experimenting with, and applying the model to real-world scenarios. Therefore, developing an online version of capacity building is an alternative approach to the workshop training programs, which makes use of new technologies and it allows for a long-term educational process in a way

  3. An international comparison of four polycentric approaches to climate and energy governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sovacool, Benjamin K., E-mail: bsovacool@nus.edu.sg [Energy Governance Program, Centre on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 469C Bukit Timah Road, Singapore 259772 (Singapore)

    2011-06-15

    Drawing from work on governance, this article explores four programs and policies that respond in some way to the challenges induced by climate change and modern energy use. Relying primarily on original data collected from research interviews and field research in seven countries along with four case studies, the article notes that polycentric approaches - those that mix scales (such as local/national or national/global), mechanisms (such as subsidies, tax credits, and mandates), and actors (such as government regulators, business stakeholders, and members of civil society) - can foster equity, inclusivity, information, accountability, organizational multiplicity, and adaptability that result in the resolution of climate and energy related problems. After explaining its case selection and research methods, defining climate and energy governance, and conceptualizing polycentrism, the study explores cases related to electricity supply in Denmark, ethanol production in Brazil, small-scale renewable energy in Bangladesh, and off-grid energy use in China. It concludes by highlighting how polycentrism may enhance effective climate and energy governance, but that further research is needed to fully substantiate that claim. - Highlights: > Polycentric governance systems mix scales, mechanisms, and actors. > Polycentric systems can foster equity, inclusivity, and information. > They can also promote accountability, organizational multiplicity, and adaptability. > Polycentrism thus has much promise in climate and energy related problems.

  4. Technology and international climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, Leon; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall

    2009-05-01

    Both the nature of international climate policy architectures and the development and diffusion of new energy technologies could dramatically influence future costs of reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper explores the implications of interactions between technology availability and performance and international policy architectures for technology choice and the social cost of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 500 ppm by the year 2095. Key issues explored in the paper include the role of bioenergy production with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), overshoot concentration pathways, and the sensitivity of mitigation costs to policy and technology.

  5. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  6. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  7. Climate engineering and international law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, Jesse; Farber, Daniel; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts of climate change and disappointing emissions abatement, some scientists and others are increasingly suggesting and researching intentional, large-scale interventions in natural systems in order to counteract climate change. These ‘climate engineering’ or ‘geoengineerin

  8. Global climate change and international security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  9. International law and global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Churchill, R.; Freestone, D. (eds.)

    1991-01-01

    If climatic change is a global problem, it can only have a global solution, which must be brought about through the development of appropriate international law. This book tackles the legal problems that are at the heart of the matter. It has chapters on the following: international law and the protection of the global atmosphere; the precautionary principle; international equity and global warming; tropical forests; development issues; the role of international non-governmental organisations; international law and sea level rise; the international legal protection of wildlife; controlling emissions of greenhouse gases; institutional and legal reponses to global warming; and the negotiation and drafting of the climate change convention. There are a number of appendices containing documents on global climate change. Seven chapters are abstracted separately.

  10. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  11. International business and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and clima

  12. The international legal framework for climate engineering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.(Jesse)

    2015-01-01

    Several of the key, recurring questions which loom over climate engineering concern how countries would interact when some of them undertake or approve actions which might impact other countries. This chapter describes some international law which is applicable to climate engineering, with a focus o

  13. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

    2011-01-01

    climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...... between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non...

  14. A Comprehensive Approach to Climate Change: Options and Obstacles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Skodvin, T.

    1996-06-01

    The main topics of this report are: (1) key elements in the development of a formula for a comprehensive approach to climate change, (2) relations between gases due to atmospheric chemistry interactions and common emission sources, (3) climate effects of existing international agreements on atmospheric emissions, and (4) methods for comparing gases. Building on the text of the climate convention itself, the authors develop an operational definition of a comprehensive approach and list 13 gases which should be included. There are not many adequate methods of comparing gases with different properties. At present the best choice is the Global Warming Potentials method (GWP), although it leaves the environmentally and politically important issue of the time horizon unresolved. An appendix comments on difficulties of including NOx emitted from surface sources in a comprehensive approach under the FCCC (UN`s Framework Convention on Climate Change). 73 refs., 20 figs., 13 tabs.

  15. Operational gaming an international approach

    CERN Document Server

    Ståhl, Ingolf

    1983-01-01

    Operational Gaming: An International Approach focuses on various research on this method of systems analysis. The text points out the value of this method in decision making, planning, and in the implementation of policies. The book presents a survey that highlights the connection of experimental gaming, game theory, and operational gaming. The value of gaming as a balancing method in assessing multifaceted computer models, most notably about their assumptions on human behavior, is noted. The book also offers an overview of gaming in other countries, such as Bulgaria, Soviet Union, and Japan,

  16. Lesson learned case study: What the history of ozone depelting chemical phaseout may teach us about how to approach international climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younis, S.E. [Conceptual Engineering Group, Inc., Crofton, MD (United States); Verdonik, D.P. [Hughes Associates, Inc., Baltimore, MD (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The world approached the production phaseout of ozone depleting chemicals conservatively under the Vienna Convention. The initial tasks were to recognize the problem within the science field and make political leaders and people aware that the problem existed and was a real threat to environmental stability. Several years later, Meetings of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol to Protect the Stratospheric Ozone Layer began occurring regularly. Long term goals on production reduction levels of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons were set. Rapid acceleration in production phaseout dates were implemented worldwide, impacting industry plans to research, develop, and implement replacements. The impacts were widespread from small cleaning processes to the defense of countries. The trials and tribulations that industries such as the foam, refrigeration, air conditioning, fire protection, and manufacturing industries have gone through to meet the accelerated challenges are great. This fight is not yet over. Alternatives have yet to be fully implemented, long term effects analysis are not yet completed, budgets have not caught up with the rapid phaseout, and supplies of ODCs are dwindling quickly, as well as increasing in cost at a rapid rate. This is being felt from car owner all the way up to the national defense of countries. The paper will briefly describe the historic events and developments that occurred to industry and the users, from a political, environmental, and business perspective. From this, valuable lessons can be learned and we can plan for the future well in advance, in order that we are not caught off guard again. A very real environmental problem exists with global climate change. This is being increasingly recognized by both political leaders and citizens alike. From what we have seen with ODC phaseout, we can potentially project what course the future.

  17. The international regulation of climate engineering : Lessons from nuclear power

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.(Jesse)

    2014-01-01

    Proposals for climate engineering—intentional large-scale interventions in climate systems—are increasingly under consideration as potential additional responses to climate change, yet they pose risks of their own. Existing international regulation of large-scale field testing and deployment is cons

  18. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  19. Modeling and assessing international climate financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

    2016-06-01

    Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

  20. Regaining momentum for international climate policy beyond Copenhagen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haug Constanze

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations.

  1. Climate change: Update on international negotiations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silverman, L. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Policy

    1997-12-31

    This paper outlines the following: United Nations` framework convention on climatic change; the United States` climate change action plan; current issues to be resolved (targets/timetables, policies, advancing commitments of all parties, and compliance); and implications for clean coal technologies.

  2. International regime formation: Ozone depletion and global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busmann, N.E.

    1994-03-01

    Two theoretical perspectives, neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, dominate in international relations. An assessment is made of whether these perspectives provide compelling explanations of why a regime with specific targets and timetables was formed for ozone depletion, while a regime with such specificity was not formed for global climate change. In so doing, the assumptions underlying neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism are examined. A preliminary assessment is offered of the policymaking and institutional bargaining process. Patterns of interstate behavior are evolving toward broader forms of cooperation, at least with regard to global environmental issues, although this process is both slow and cautious. State coalitions on specific issues are not yet powerful enough to create a strong community of states in which states are willing to devolve power to international institutions. It is shown that regime analysis is a useful analytic framework, but it should not be mistaken for theory. Regime analysis provides an organizational framework offering a set of questions regarding the principles and norms that govern cooperation and conflict in an issue area, and whether forces independent of states exist which affect the scope of state behavior. An examination of both neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, embodied by four approaches to regime formation, demonstrates that neither has sufficient scope to account for contextual dynamics in either the ozone depletion or global climate change regime formation processes. 261 refs.

  3. The Geopolitics of Climate Change: Challenges to the International System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halden, Peter

    2007-12-15

    This report analyses the consequences of climate change and global warming for international politics in general and international security in particular. The report focuses on whether and in what way climate change may alter the conditions of international security. From this perspective, the initial effects of climate change will vary according to existing economic, political and social structures in different world regions. Organised violence is more likely in regions with weak states and conflictual inter-state dynamics than in those characterised by co-operative relations. In the short- to medium term, climate change is unlikely to alter the constitutive structures of international security. However, depending on the severity of climate change, these conditions may change over the long term. Such changes will probably depend on the secondary effects that change has on the world and regional economies. Climate change is unlikely to lead to an increase in conflicts in the short- to medium term, but a long-term development marked by unmitigated climate change could very well have serious consequences for international security. The report argues that, although necessary, mitigation and adaptation measures may have consequences for international politics. These are due to the changes in social and political systems that they entail.

  4. The legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Christer; Hjerpe, Mattias; Parker, Charles; Linner, Bjorn-Ola

    2012-01-01

    Leadeship is an essential ingredient in reaching international agreements and overcoming the collective action problems associated with responding to climate change. In this study, we aim at answering two questions that are crucial for understanding the legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations. Based on the responses of the three consecutive surveys distributed at COPs 14-16, we seek first to chart which actors are actually recognized as leaders by climate change negotiation participants. Second, we aim to explain what motivates COP participants to support different actors as leaders. Both these questions are indeed crucial for understanding the role, importance, and legitimacy of leadership in the international climate change regime. Our results show that the leadership landscape in this issue area is fragmented, with no one clear-cut leader, and strongly suggest that it is imperative for any actor seeking recognition as climate change leader to be perceived as being devoted to promoting the common good.

  5. Active Climate Stabilization: Practical Physics-Based Approaches to Prevention of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teller, E.; Hyde, T.; Wood, L.

    2002-04-18

    We offer a case for active technical management of the radiative forcing of the temperatures of the Earth's fluid envelopes, rather than administrative management of atmospheric greenhouse gas inputs, in order to stabilize both the global- and time-averaged climate and its mesoscale features. We suggest that active management of radiative forcing entails negligible--indeed, likely strongly negative--economic costs and environmental impacts, and thus best complies with the pertinent mandate of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. We propose that such approaches be swiftly evaluated in sub-scale in the course of an intensive international program.

  6. Active Climate Stabilization: Practical Physics-Based Approaches to Prevention of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teller, E; Hyde, T; Wood, L

    2002-04-18

    We offer a case for active technical management of the radiative forcing of the temperatures of the Earth's fluid envelopes, rather than administrative management of atmospheric greenhouse gas inputs, in order to stabilize both the global- and time-averaged climate and its mesoscale features. We suggest that active management of radiative forcing entails negligible--indeed, likely strongly negative--economic costs and environmental impacts, and thus best complies with the pertinent mandate of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. We propose that such approaches be swiftly evaluated in sub-scale in the course of an intensive international program.

  7. Approaching climate-adaptive facades with foldings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sack-Nielsen, Torsten

    2014-01-01

    Buildings are responsible for approximately more than 40% of the worldwide energy consumption . The aim is to bring this amount significantly down. In order to achieve substantially optimized results, new ways of approaching architectural solutions have to be investigated. Recent studies have...... indicated that there is a potential of additionally saving energy by 5-20% through dynamic adaptability of building envelopes to different climatic conditions. Rising demands to user-comfort in buildings and the broad range of climatic situations in the northern countries support this approach. The question...... rises then how actually this dynamic problem of changing climatic conditions can be solved. Static solutions are not capable to respond fully satisfying to the task given. The project ‘responsive foldings’ is carried out in a research-by-design methodology to investigate the potentials of building...

  8. The international politics of climate engineering : A review and prospectus for international relations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horton, Joshua B.; Reynolds, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    Proposed large-scale intentional interventions in natural systems in order to counter climate change, typically called “climate engineering” or “geoengineering,” stand to dramatically alter the international politics of climate change and potentially much more. There is currently a significant and g

  9. Ecosystem based approaches to climate adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne; Jensen, Anne; Termansen, Mette

    This report analyses the prospects and barriers of applying ecosystem based approaches systematically to climate adaptation in urban areas, taking the case of green roofs in Copenhagen Municipality. It looks at planning aspects of green roofs in Copenhagen as well as citizen views and preferences...

  10. Permit trading and stability of international climate agreements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Altamirano-Cabrera, J.C.; Finus, M.

    2006-01-01

    We analyze the implication of different allocation schemes of CO2-emission permits for stability and the success of international climate agreements. Our model combines a game theoretical with an empirical module that comprises 12 world regions and captures important dynamic aspects of the climate c

  11. Approaching the Edge of Abrupt Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramadhin, C.; Yi, C.

    2015-12-01

    The phenomenon of Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) became evident as paleoclimate data analyses began revealing that Earth's climate has the ability to rapidly switch from one state to the next in just a few decades after thresholds are crossed. Previously paleo-climatologists thought these switches were gradual but now there is growing concern to identify thresholds and the dominant feedback mechanisms that propel systems toward thresholds. Current human civilization relies heavily on climate stability and ACC threatens immense disruption with potentially disastrous consequences for all ecosystems. Therefore, prediction of the climate system's approach to threshold values would prove vital for the resilience of civilization through development of appropriate adaptation strategies when that shift occurs. Numerous studies now establish that earth systems are experiencing dramatic changes both by system interactions and anthropogenic sources adding urgency for comprehensive knowledge of tipping point identification. Despite this, predictions are difficult due to the immensity of interactions among feedback mechanisms. In this paper, we attempt to narrow this broad spectrum of critical feedback mechanisms by reviewing several publications on role of feedbacks in initiating past climate transitions establishing the most critical ones and significance in current climate changes. Using a compilation of paleoclimate datasets we compared the rates of deglaciations with that of glacial inceptions, which are approximately 5-10 times slower. We hypothesize that the critical feedbacks are unique to each type of transition such that warmings are dominated by the ice-albedo feedback while coolings are a combination of temperature - CO2 and temperature-precipitation followed by the ice-albedo feedbacks. Additionally, we propose the existence of a commonality in the dominant trigger feedbacks for astronomical and millennial timescale abrupt climate shifts and as such future studies

  12. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  13. Approaches to local climate action in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y. D.

    2011-12-01

    Though climate change is a global problem, the impacts are felt on the local scale; it follows that the solutions must come at the local level. Fortunately, many cities and municipalities are implementing climate mitigation (or climate action) policies and programs. However, they face many procedural and institutional barriers to their efforts, such of lack of expertise or data, limited human and financial resources, and lack of community engagement (Krause 2011). To address the first obstacle, thirteen in-depth case studies were done of successful model practices ("best practices") of climate action programs carried out by various cities, counties, and organizations in Colorado, and one outside Colorado, and developed into "how-to guides" for other municipalities to use. Research was conducted by reading documents (e.g. annual reports, community guides, city websites), email correspondence with program managers and city officials, and via phone interviews. The information gathered was then compiled into a series of reports containing a narrative description of the initiative; an overview of the plan elements (target audience and goals); implementation strategies and any indicators of success to date (e.g. GHG emissions reductions, cost savings); and the adoption or approval process, as well as community engagement efforts and marketing or messaging strategies. The types of programs covered were energy action plans, energy efficiency programs, renewable energy programs, and transportation and land use programs. Between the thirteen case studies, there was a range of approaches to implementing local climate action programs, examined along two dimensions: focus on climate change (whether it was direct/explicit or indirect/implicit) and extent of government authority. This benchmarking exercise affirmed the conventional wisdom propounded by Pitt (2010), that peer pressure (that is, the presence of neighboring jurisdictions with climate initiatives), the level of

  14. International colloquium challenge climate for the France: the factor 4; Colloque international defi climat pour la France: le facteur 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    The objective factor 4 is the division by four of the greenhouse gases emission. This colloquium aims to define possible actions to reach this objective. The first part concerns presentations of personalities of the domain and offers an international panorama of the energetic and environmental policies, against the climatic change and how to reconcile economic growth with climatic change. The second part wonders on the mobilization of the actors secton a national and international framework. (A.L.B.)

  15. Exclusive Minilateralism: An Emerging Discourse within International Climate Change Governance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Scott McGee

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Over the past five years there have been a series of significant international climate change agreements involving only elite state actors. The Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, APEC Sydney Leaders Declaration and US Major Economies Process all displayed a shift towards a model of international climate change governance involving a small group of economically powerful states, to the exclusion of less powerful states and environmental NGOs. The modest result from the UNFCCC COP 15 meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009 and subsequent UNFCCC meetings has strengthened calls for international climate governance to be pared down to smaller decision making forums of key states only. This article argues that these developments evidence an emerging discourse of ‘exclusive minilateralism’ in international climate policy that is challenging the inclusive multilateral discourse that has formed the bedrock of international climate change governance since the inception of UN climate regime in the early 1990s. The exclusive minilateralism discourse offers a significant challenge to both the cosmopolitan and discursive democratic aspirations of international climate change governance. One response to the exclusive minilateral discourse is to reform the UNFCCC consensus-based decision making rule to provide the COP with greater ease of decision making on key issues relating to mitigation and adaptation. Another response is to more formally include the exclusive minilateralism discourse within the UNFCCC COP process. This could be achieved by forming a small peak body of states and key NGO groups to act as an influential advisor to the COP process on key issues requiring expedition and resolution.

  16. Accessing International Funding for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lars; Ray, Aaron D.; Smith, Joel B.

    The primary aim of this guidebook is to provide countries participating in the Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) Project with practical guidance that will help them secure financing for adaptation technology transfer project profiles identified in their Technology Action Plans (TAPs). The TNA...... of international public funding sources dedicated to adaptation investments (Chapter 3) • Seven fundamental eligibility criteria for accessing international public funding and guidance on how to apply these concepts to project ideas (Chapter 3) • A template (built on the abovementioned seven fundamental...... eligibility criteria) for developing/ presenting adaptation project ideas to international donors. Using this format when communicating project ideas to international donors and agencies is likely to facilitate greater interest and increase the chances of successfully accessing available funding (Chapter 3...

  17. International Approaches to Clinical Costing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chapman, Christopher; Kern, Anja; Laguecir, Aziza

    This report has been commissioned by both HFMA and Monitor and the work has been led by Imperial College Business School’s Health Management Group. The report compares current approaches to costing, primarily across Europe. The findings reveal wide-ranging practices and uses for costing data......, and provide opportunities for all healthsystems to learn and potentially improve their own approaches. The HFMA hopes to build on this initial baselining exercise to understand more about how key issues are being tackled in some of the health systems that have made the most progress with costing....

  18. Climate governance in an international system under conservative hegemony: the role of major powers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Viola

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last five years, climate change has been established as a central civilizational driver of our time. As a result of this development, the most diversified social processes - as well as the fields of science which study them - have had their dynamics altered. In International Relations, this double challenge could be explained as follows: 1 in empirical terms, climate change imposes a deepening of cooperation levels on the international community, considering the global common character of the atmosphere; and 2 to International Relations as a discipline, climate change demands from the scientific community a conceptual review of the categories designed to approach the development of global climate governance. The goal of this article is to discuss in both conceptual and empirical terms the structure of global climate change governance, through an exploratory research, aiming at identifying the key elements that allow understanding its dynamics. To do so, we rely on the concept of climate powers. This discussion is grounded in the following framework: we now live in an international system under conservative hegemony that is unable to properly respond to the problems of interdependence, among which - and mainly -, the climate issue.

  19. Introduction: A Nordic Approach to International Law?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldgaard-Pedersen, Astrid

    2016-01-01

    An introduction is presented in which editor discusses various articles within the issue on topics including the role of Nordics in shaping international law of neutrality, relationship between international law and domestic law within human rights and a Nordic approach to promoting women's rights....

  20. Confluence of climate change policies and international trade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vickery, R.E. Jr.

    1997-12-31

    The paper summarizes market information on energy conservation and renewable energy industries in the U.S., and highlights activities of the International Trade Administration. International treaties agreements on environmental issues are examined with respect to their influence on U.S. trade promotion and job creation. A sectoral analysis of the economic impact of greenhouse gas emissions reductions on industries is very briefly summarized. Finally, the need for a climate change treaty in spite of possible adverse impacts is discussed. 1 tab.

  1. A proposed structure for an international convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nitze, W.A. (Environmental Law Institute, Washington, DC (USA))

    1990-08-10

    Formal negotiations toward an international convention on climate change will begin shortly after completion of the interim report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); presentation of the report to the Second World Climate Conference will be this fall. In a 25 May speech responding to greenhouse warming predictions made by the IPCC science working group, Margaret Thatcher said that Britain would reduce the proposed growth of its CO{sub 2} emissions enough to stabilize them at 1990 levels by 2005 if other countries did their part. Yet the United States, Japan, and other countries that emit substantial quantities of greenhouse gases continue to resist potentially expensive emission-reduction targets or control measures, citing continuing uncertainties about the extent, timing, and distribution of future climate change and its economic consequences. Similarly, developing countries are unlikely to agree to emissions targets or control measures that they perceive as impeding their economic development and will almost certainly condition their participation on a commitment by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries to provide additional development assistance. A central task for a climate convention will be to provide the international community with a permanent mechanism for coordinating its efforts to deal with climate change.

  2. Effectiveness of a segmental approach to climate policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trancik, Jessika E; Chang, Michael T; Karapataki, Christina; Stokes, Leah C

    2014-01-01

    Resistance to adopting a cap on greenhouse gas emissions internationally, and across various national contexts, has encouraged alternative climate change mitigation proposals. These proposals include separately targeting clean energy uptake and demand-side efficiency in individual end-use sectors, an approach to climate change mitigation which we characterize as segmental and technology-centered. A debate has ensued on the detailed implementation of these policies in particular national contexts, but less attention has been paid to the general factors determining the effectiveness of a segmental approach to emissions reduction. We address this topic by probing the interdependencies of segmental policies and their collective ability to control emissions. First, we show for the case of U.S. electricity how the set of suitable energy technologies depends on demand-side efficiency, and changes with the stringency of climate targets. Under a high-efficiency scenario, carbon-free technologies must supply 60-80% of U.S. electricity demand to meet an emissions reduction target of 80% below 1990 levels by midcentury. Second, we quantify the enhanced propensity to exceed any intended emissions target with this approach, even if goals are set on both the supply and demand side, due to the multiplicative accumulation of emissions error. For example, a 10% error in complying with separate policies on the demand and supply side would combine to result in a 20% error in emissions. Third, we discuss why despite these risks, the enhanced planning capability of a segmental approach may help counteract growing infrastructural inertia. The emissions reduction impediment due to infrastructural inertia is significant in the electricity sectors of each of the greatest emitters: China, the U.S., and Europe. Commonly cited climate targets are still within reach but, as we show, would require more than a 50% reduction in the carbon intensity of new power plants built in these regions over

  3. Dynamic Transfer Schemes and Stability of International Climate Coalitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nagashima, M.N.; Dellink, R.B.; Ierland, van E.C.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the formation and stability of coalitions in international climate agreements with a combined game-theoretic and integrated assessment model. The empirical model comprises twelve regions and investigates partial coalition formation in a one-shot cartel game. We argue that a dynam

  4. Protecting health from climate change: Preparedness of medical interns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majra Jai

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Context : Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health and to meet the challenge, health systems require qualified staff. Aims : To study the preparedness of medical interns to meet the challenge of protecting health from climate change. Settings and Design: Medical colleges in a coastal town. Cross-sectional study. Materials and Methods: A proportionate number of medical interns from five medical colleges were included in the study. Level of awareness was used as a criterion to judge the preparedness. A self-administered, pretested, open-ended questionnaire was used. Responses were evaluated and graded. Statistical Analysis Used: Proportions, percentage, Chi-test. Results : About 90% of the medical interns were aware of the climate change and human activities that were playing a major role. Ninety-four percent were aware of the direct health impacts due to higher temperature and depletion in ozone concentration, and about 78% of the respondents were aware about the change in frequency / distribution of vector-borne diseases, water borne / related diseases, malnutrition, and health impact of population displacement. Knowledge regarding health protection was limited to mitigation of climate change and training / education. Options like adaptation, establishing / strengthening climate and disease surveillance systems, and health action in emergency were known to only nine (7%, eight (6%, and 17 (13%, respectively. Collegewise difference was statistically insignificant. Extra / co-curricular activities were the major source of knowledge. Conclusions : Majority of medical interns were aware of the causes and health impacts of climate change, but their knowledge regarding health protection measures was limited.

  5. International conference on past, present and future climate. Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikinheimo, P. [ed.

    1995-12-31

    This publications contains the proceedings of the International Conference on Past, Present and Future Climate, held in Helsinki, Finland, on 22-25 August 1995. Conference was organized to serve at least two purposes. First, it was the fourth meeting in a series of Nordic climate conferences. Earlier Nordic meetings had been held in Copenhagen (1978), Stockholm (1983) and Tromsoe (1990). Secondly, the conference formed part of the integration activities of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU). Four central themes were selected for the conference: (1) climatic changes since the last glaciation inferred from proxy data,(2) detection of climate change from the instrumental record,(3) changes in atmospheric composition, (4) predicting future climate. The Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change was in its sixth and final year at the time of the conference. One of the aims of the meeting was to foster the communication of SlLMU`s results to the scientific community at large. On the other hand, feedback from overseas colleagues was expected to be beneficial for the final reporting of the results of the research programme. Altogether 117 scientific contributions were submitted and more than 140 scientists attended the conference

  6. FOREWORD: International Conference on Planetary Boundary Layer and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djolov, G.; Esau, I.

    2010-05-01

    One of the greatest achievements of climate science has been the establisment of the concept of climate change on a multitude of time scales. The Earth's complex climate system does not allow a straightforward interpretation of dependences between the external parameter perturbation, internal stochastic system dynamics and the long-term system response. The latter is usually referred to as climate change in a narrow sense (IPCC, 2007). The focused international conference "Planetary Boundary Layers and Climate Change" has addressed only time scales and dynamical aspects of climate change with possible links to the turbulent processes in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). Although limited, the conference topic is by no means singular. One should clearly understand that the PBL is the layer where 99% of biosphere and human activity are concentrated. The PBL is the layer where the energy fluxes, which are followed by changes in cryosphere and other known feedbacks, are maximized. At the same time, the PBL processes are of a naturally small scale. What is the averaged long-term effect of the small-scale processes on the long-term climate dynamics? Can this effect be recognized in existing long-term paleo-climate data records? Can it be modeled? What is the current status of our theoretical understanding of this effect? What is the sensitivity of the climate model projections to the representation of small-scale processes? Are there significant indirect effects, e.g. through transport of chemical components, of the PBL processes on climate? These and other linked questions have been addressed during the conference. The Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history, with events ranging from ice ages to long periods of warmth. Historically, natural factors such as the amount of energy released from the Sun, volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth's orbit have affected the Earth's climate. Beginning late in the 18th century, human activities

  7. Climate engineering field research : The favorable setting of international environmental law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.(Jesse)

    2014-01-01

    As forecasts for climate change and its impacts have become more dire, climate engineering proposals have come under increasing consideration and are presently moving toward field trials. This article examines the relevant international environmental law, distinguishing between climate engineering r

  8. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  9. Evaluating European Climate Change Policy: An Ecological Justice Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhovic-Dorsner, Kamala

    2005-01-01

    To date, the concept of ecological justice, when applied to international climate change policy, has largely focused on the North-South dichotomy and has yet to be extended to Central and Eastern European countries. This article argues that current formulations of climate change policy cannot address potential issues of ecological injustice to…

  10. A Thematic Approach to Increasing Climate Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, R. J.; Schwerin, T. G.; Witiw, M. R.

    2010-12-01

    The Earth System Science Education Alliance (ESSEA), an NSF, NASA, and NOAA supported program providing K-12 teacher professional development uses a thematic approach to frame participant inquiry. To address topics such as carbon sequestration, ocean acidification or aerosols, ESSEA online courses present participants with scenarios or contexts depicting an anomaly or perturbation to the Earth system. The courses deepen teachers’ content knowledge within an inquiry environment through reflection, analysis and self-discovery. Courses familiarize participants with Earth system analyses and provide a suite of techniques that can be employed to facilitate student learning, for example, through the use of Problem-based learning (PBL). Problem-based learning (PBL) is designed to "simultaneously develop both problem solving strategies and disciplinary knowledge bases and skills by placing students in the active role of problem-solvers confronted with an ill-structured problem that mirrors real-world problems.” PBL models are generally characterized by the following steps: 1) the presentation of a problem to a small group of students, 2) discussion of the problem among the students which produces tentative explanations of the problem, and 3) an attempt to solve the problem. When participants work to solve ill-structured problems, they are working toward learning generalized procedures for problem solving that will transfer to new situations (University of Delaware, 1999). At the end of an ESSEA course experience, teachers are better equipped with the content and the confidence in using inquiry in the teaching of climate science.

  11. Greenhouse climate management: an optimal control approach.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henten, van E.J.

    1994-01-01

    In this thesis a methodology is developed for the construction and analysis of an optimal greenhouse climate control system.In chapter 1, the results of a literature survey are presented and the research objectives are defined. In the literature, optimal greenhouse climate management systems have be

  12. International language management and diversity climate in multicultural organizations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauring, Jakob; Selmer, Jan

    2012-01-01

    to internationalization is how to develop and support an environment that is tolerant of the diversity which exists in multicultural organizations. Based on questionnaire responses from 489 members of academic multicultural departments, we examined the relation between the management of a common language and a positive......Increasing globalization has made the use and management of language a vital element of engaging in international business activities. Despite this fact, empirical surveys with many respondents examining language management are extremely rare. Another equally important issue related...... diversity climate. Results showed that consistency in English management communication had strong positive relationships with all of the four investigated diversity climate variables; openness to linguistic, visible, value, and informational diversity. English communication consistency had a positive...

  13. OPEC`s response to international climate agreements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braaten, J.; Golombek, R.

    1996-03-01

    This publication studies a game between a group of countries that have agreed to participate in an international climate agreement (the signatories) and OPEC. The task of the signatories is to design carbon taxes that maximize their total net income, given a goal on global carbon emissions. In response to the climate agreement, OPEC imposes an oil tax on its member states that maximizes OPEC`s profits. Within a numerical model, the subgame-perfect equilibrium of a game is found in which each player chooses when to fix his decision variables. It is shown that, in equilibrium, the group of signatories chooses to be the leader and OPEC chooses to be the follower. It is demonstrated, however, that for both agents the order of move is of minor (numerical) importance. Hence, the players have limited incentives for strategic behaviour. 15 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

  14. 7th International Seminar on Climate System and Climate Change(ISCS) through the Eyes of a Trainee

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Karen K.Y.Shum

    2010-01-01

    @@ At the invitation of Dr.Dahe Qin,the president of ISCS and the Co-Chair of IPCC WGI,the Hong Kong Observatory has been obliged to participate and benefit from the International Seminar in Beijing,China on 19-30 July 2010.Seminar topics included atmospheric chemistry and climate effects of aerosol biogeochemical cycles,cryosphere and its role in the climate system and climate change,climate models and its application in climate change research,climate change adaptation and mitigation.Data is a common ground for these multi-disciplinary studies around the globe.

  15. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

  16. Global climate forcing of aerosols embodied in international trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jintai; Tong, Dan; Davis, Steven; Ni, Ruijing; Tan, Xiaoxiao; Pan, Da; Zhao, Hongyan; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David; Feng, Tong; Zhang, Qiang; Yan, Yingying; Hu, Yongyun; Li, Jing; Liu, Zhu; Jiang, Xujia; Geng, Guannan; He, Kebin; Huang, Yi; Guan, Dabo

    2016-10-01

    International trade separates regions consuming goods and services from regions where goods and related aerosol pollution are produced. Yet the role of trade in aerosol climate forcing attributed to different regions has never been quantified. Here, we contrast the direct radiative forcing of aerosols related to regions' consumption of goods and services against the forcing due to emissions produced in each region. Aerosols assessed include black carbon, primary organic aerosol, and secondary inorganic aerosols, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium. We find that global aerosol radiative forcing due to emissions produced in East Asia is much stronger than the forcing related to goods and services ultimately consumed in that region because of its large net export of emissions-intensive goods. The opposite is true for net importers such as Western Europe and North America: global radiative forcing related to consumption is much greater than the forcing due to emissions produced in these regions. Overall, trade is associated with a shift of radiative forcing from net importing to net exporting regions. Compared to greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, the short atmospheric lifetimes of aerosols cause large localized differences between consumption- and production-related radiative forcing. International efforts to reduce emissions in the exporting countries will help alleviate trade-related climate and health impacts of aerosols while lowering global emissions.

  17. NCDC International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Project, Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, which took the initial step...

  18. Urban vulnerability and climate change in Africa a multidisciplinary approach

    CERN Document Server

    Coly, Adrien; Fohlmeister, Sandra; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Kabisch, Sigrun; Kombe, Wilbard; Lindley, Sarah; Simonis, Ingo; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

    2015-01-01

    The book presents results of CLUVA (CLimate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa), a large European Commission funded research project (2010-2013). The project aimed to develop a better understanding of the risks and impacts of climate change related hazards to African cities, assess their vulnerability to these risks, and identify innovative strategies for planning and governance to increase their resilience. For the first time, a systematic and groundbreaking study of this kind was applied in an inter- and trans-disciplinary approach. CLUVA was unique in that it combined: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences and qualitative approaches of the social sciences; a novel multi-risk modeling methodology; strategic approaches to urban and green infrastructure planning with neighborhood perspectives of adaptation. The book broadly follows the approach taken in the CLUVA project. First, the co...

  19. Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

  20. Climate impacts from international aviation and shipping; State-of-the-art on climate impacts, allocation and mitigation policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit R; Kampman B; Boon B; Velthoven P van; Meijer E; Olivier JGJ; Lee DS; Wit R; Kampman B; Boon B; CE-Delft; KNMI; RIVN/MNP; Manchester Metropolitan University; KMD

    2005-01-01

    The international aviation and shipping sectors contribute significantly to climatic change and air pollution. Until now, however, Parties to the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have not been able to agree on a methodology to assign responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions

  1. Examining the potential impacts of climate change on international security: EU-Africa partnership on climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Dodo, Mahamat K.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many St...

  2. The resilience approach to climate adaptation applied for flood risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gersonius, B.

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation presents a potential way forward for adaptation to climate change, termed the resilience approach. This approach takes a dynamic perspective on adaptive processes and the effects of these processes at/across different spatio-temporal scales. Experience is provided with four methods

  3. Putting climate impact estimates to work: the empirical approach of the American Climate Prospectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assesses climate risks posed to the United States' economy in a number of sectors [1]. Four of these - crop yield, crime, labor productivity, and mortality - draw upon research which identifies social impacts using contemporary variability in climate. We first identify a group of rigorous studies that use climate variability to identify responses to temperature and precipitation, while controlling for unobserved differences between locations. To incorporate multiple studies from a single sector, we employ a meta-analytical approach that draws on Bayesian methods commonly used in medical research and previously implemented in [2]. We generate a series of aggregate response functions for each sector using this meta-analytical method. We combine response functions with downscaled physical climate projections to estimate climate impacts out to the end of the century, incorporating uncertainty from statistical estimates, weather, climate models, and different emissions scenarios. Incorporating multiple studies in a single estimation framework allows us to directly compare impacts across the economy. We find that increased mortality has the largest effect on the US economy, followed by costs associated with decreased labor productivity. Agricultural losses and increases in crime contribute lesser but nonetheless substantial costs, and agriculture, notably, shows many areas benefitting from projected climate changes. The ACP also presents results throughout the 21stcentury. The dynamics of each of the impact categories differs, with, for example, mortality showing little change until the end of the century, but crime showing a monotonic increase from the present day. The ACP approach can expand to include new findings in current sectors, new sectors, and new geographical areas of interest. It represents an analytical framework that can incorporate empirical

  4. Bottom-"wide" Approach to Climate Change - Typology and Analysis on Climate Vulnerability Reduction through Voluntary Actions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiyoto Yamaura

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change risk is mostly and often unfairly cast upon those who are vulnerable. As one of the effective and spreadable means in reducing human vulnerability to climate change, this paper and its findings address the role, strength and limitations of voluntary actions. Through an extensive review of various climate change literature, projects and interviews among practitioners, the authors looked at thetypes of interventions and results that voluntary actions have achieved. The paperintroducesvarious types of voluntary activities such as awareness raising, community mobilization and empowerment, community-based adaptation and mitigation, and voluntary environmental regulations and schemes. Such bottom-"wide" approach to climate change is closely linked with civil environmentalism with broad focus and also scientifically strengthened by its engagement with civic science. It urges shifting the mind-set of international development agencies to flexibly accommodate and maximize the potential of voluntary, bottom-wide actions in combating climate change. Finally, the paper lists out pieces of recommendation to further improve and fully utilize voluntary actions in reducing vulnerabilityon the ground, by emphasizing long-term orientation, capacity development, monitoring and evaluation and building partnerships at the local level.

  5. 78 FR 59412 - Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental Scientific Affairs; Climate Action Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-26

    ... of Oceans and International Environmental Scientific Affairs; Climate Action Report AGENCY... Climate Action Report (CAR) on U.S. climate change actions. This draft CAR consists of two documents, the National Communication and the Biennial Report, that respond to reporting requirements under the...

  6. Reconstructing Student Conceptions of Climate Change; An Inquiry Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, J. Collin

    No other environmental issue today has as much potential to alter life on Earth as does global climate change. Scientific evidence continues to grow; indicating that climate change is occurring now, and that change is a result of human activities (National Research Council [NRC], 2010). The need for climate literacy in society has become increasingly urgent. Unfortunately, understanding the concepts necessary for climate literacy remains a challenge for most individuals. A growing research base has identified a number of common misconceptions people have about climate literacy concepts (Leiserowitz, Smith, & Marlon 2011; Shepardson, Niyogi, Choi, & Charusombat, 2009). However, few have explored this understanding in high school students. This sequential mixed methods study explored the changing conceptions of global climate change in 90 sophomore biology students through the course of their participation in an eight-week inquiry-based global climate change unit. The study also explored changes in students' attitudes over the course of the study unit, contemplating possible relationships between students' conceptual understanding of and attitudes toward global climate change. Phase I of the mixed methods study included quantitative analysis of pre-post content knowledge and attitude assessment data. Content knowledge gains were statistically significant and over 25% of students in the study shifted from an expressed belief of denial or uncertainty about global warming to one of belief in it. Phase II used an inductive approach to explore student attitudes and conceptions. Conceptually, very few students grew to a scientifically accurate understanding of the greenhouse effect or the relationship between global warming and climate change. However, they generally made progress in their conceptual understanding by adding more specific detail to explain their understanding. Phase III employed a case study approach with eight purposefully selected student cases

  7. Sustainable Relations in International Development Cooperation Projects: The Role of Organizational Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cosimo Rota

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available  The importance of the human side of project management to assess the success of international development project has not been fully considered yet. An analysis of the literature on the project success definition, focused on the success criteria and success factors, was carried out. The organization’s effectiveness, in terms of Relations Sustainability, emerged as a criteria integrating the "time, cost, performance" approach to define a project success. Based on previous research contributions on the factors influencing the organization’s effectiveness, the paper expands the analysis of the influence of Organizational Climate on the Relation Sustainability between project manager and project team involved in international cooperation for development. The statistical methods used include confirmatory factors analysis and structural equation modeling. The results carry implications for project management identifying five dimensions of Organizational Climate (trust, innovation, social cohesion, communication and job challenge influencing Relations Sustainability. This finding suggests that Organizational Climate contributes to project success by creating trust, stimulating commitment and generating satisfaction to overcome conflicts between project manager and project team.

  8. Research Priorities for NCD Prevention and Climate Change: An International Delphi Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Colagiuri

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and non-communicable diseases (NCDs are arguably the greatest global challenges of the 21st Century. However, the confluence between them remains under-examined and there is little evidence of a comprehensive, systematic approach to identifying research priorities to mitigate their joint impact. Consequently, we: (i convened a workshop of academics (n = 25 from the Worldwide Universities Network to identify priority areas at the interface between NCDs and climate change; (ii conducted a Delphi survey of international opinion leaders in public health and relevant other disciplines; and (iii convened an expert panel to review and advise on final priorities. Three research areas (water security; transport; conceptualising NCD harms to support policy formation were listed among the top 10 priorities by >90% of Delphi respondents, and ranked among the top 12 priorities by >60% of respondents who ranked the order of priority. A fourth area (reducing the carbon footprint of cities was ranked highest by the same >60% of respondents. Our results are consistent with existing frameworks on health and climate change, and extends them by focusing specifically on NCDs. Researching these priorities could progress understanding of climate change and NCDs, and inform global and national policy decisions for mitigating associated harms.

  9. Advantages of a polycentric approach to climate change policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Daniel H.

    2015-02-01

    Lack of progress in global climate negotiations has led scholars to reconsider polycentric approaches to climate policy. Several examples of subglobal mechanisms to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions have been touted, but it remains unclear why they might achieve better climate outcomes than global negotiations alone. Decades of work conducted by researchers associated with the Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis at Indiana University have emphasized two chief advantages of polycentric approaches over monocentric ones: they provide more opportunities for experimentation and learning to improve policies over time, and they increase communications and interactions -- formal and informal, bilateral and multilateral -- among parties to help build the mutual trust needed for increased cooperation. A wealth of theoretical, empirical and experimental evidence supports the polycentric approach.

  10. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  11. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.;

    2006-01-01

    -economic scenarios that are consistent with climate change scenarios used in climate impact studies. Furthermore, the pairwise comparison approach developed by Saaty [Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw Hill, New York] provides a useful tool for the quantification from narrative storylines......Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...

  12. International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

  13. Targeting deforestation rates in climate change policy: a "Preservation Pathway" approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond Leigh

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We present a new methodological approach to incorporating deforestation within the international climate change negotiating regime. The approach, called "Preservation Pathway" combines the desire for forest preservation with the need to reduce emissions associated with forest loss by focusing on the relative rate of change of forest cover as the criteria by which countries gain access to trading preserved forest carbon stocks. This approach avoids the technically challenging task of quantifying historical or future deforestation emission baselines. Rather, it places emphasis on improving quantification of contemporary stocks and the relative decline in deforestation rates necessary to preserve those stocks. This approach places emphasis on the complete emissions trajectory necessary to attain an agreed-upon preserved forest and as such, meets both forest conservation and climate goals simultaneously.

  14. Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Aiguo; Fyfe, John C.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Dai, Xingang

    2015-06-01

    Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average project strong warming. The recent slowdown in observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific, intensifying trade winds, changes in El Niño activity, increasing volcanic activity and decreasing solar irradiance. Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood. Here we analyse observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since 1920. We show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with large T anomalies over both ocean and land. Combined with another leading mode of ICV, the IPO explains most of the difference between observed and model-simulated rates of decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularly over the so-called `hiatus' period since about 2000. We conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns different from those associated with GHG-induced warming or aerosol-induced cooling. Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.

  15. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature.

  16. International climate change policies. Interests and perceptions. A comparative study on climate change politics in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van der Wurff, R.J.W.

    1997-06-26

    In Chapter 1 the differences in the climate change policy positions of Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, are discussed against the background of a brief introduction in the scientific and international political aspects of climate change. Chapter 2 will present the theoretical framework of the study, starting with an overview of basic approaches in International Relations (IR) and their usefulness for the analysis of international environmental politics. Subsequently, some relevant IR and non-IR theories will be discussed in detail, distinguishing into state-oriented approaches (realism, regime analysis); multiple level approaches (two-level games; environmental interest profiles); and transnational approaches (Regulation School, Amsterdam School, Cultural Analysis, and Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies (CCCS)). It is concluded that an interest-oriented approach (focusing on `objective` interests) and a perception-oriented approach (focusing on environmental views) need to be combined to explain international environmental politics. In chapter 3 this theoretical framework is made operational and a methodology for the research is presented. Chapters 4 and 5 deal with the interest-oriented approach, explaining the climate change policy positions of Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States in terms of `objective` interests. More specifically, in chapter 4 present constellations of climate change interests in these countries will be compared. Next, since climate change is a long term issue, chapter 5 focuses on structural change that will shape future climate change interests. It is expected that present nor future `objective` interests will offer an adequate explanation for the observed differences in climate change policy positions. In the Chapters 6 and 7 the perception-oriented approach is presented, explaining the differences in climate change policy positions of Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States in terms of cross

  17. Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Orozco, Carlos E.; Pollock, Laura J.; Thornhill, Andrew H.; Mishler, Brent D.; Knerr, Nunzio; Laffan, Shawn W.; Miller, Joseph T.; Rosauer, Dan F.; Faith, Daniel P.; Nipperess, David A.; Kujala, Heini; Linke, Simon; Butt, Nathalie; Külheim, Carsten; Crisp, Michael D.; Gruber, Bernd

    2016-12-01

    Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.

  18. The international coordination of climate model validation and intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gates, W.L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    1995-12-31

    Climate modeling, whereby basic physical laws are used to integrate the physics and dynamics of climate into a consistent system, plays a key role in climate research and is the medium through. Depending upon the portion(s) of the climate system being considered, climate models range from those concerned only with the equilibrium globally-averaged surface temperature to those depicting the 3-dimensional time-dependent evolution of the coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Here only the latter class of models are considered, which are commonly known as general circulation models (or GCMs). (author)

  19. SYNTHETIC APPROACH ON INTERNAL AND INTERNATIONAL ROAD TRANSPORT LOGISTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LĂPĂDUŞI MIHAELA LOREDANA

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Road freight transport is one of the main activities involved in the operation and development of an economyand its practice and organization emphasizes its importance from two points of view: one as it is the necessary tool forthe establishment and functioning of national and international markets and two because international freight becamea more significant modern sector in industrialized countries; in many countries as Switzerland or Germanytransportation is a professional occupation.I think that the theme in achieving this article is useful, permanent, necessary, timely and appropriate. Usefulbecause the results of this research lead to improved performance in carrying out road freight transport, permanent asthe theme of the article highlights the fact that road freight transport is a permanent factor promoting and stimulatingthe economic growth, necessary because without efficient logistics for road freight transport, moving them by landwould be poor, timely because the dynamics of transport logistics development focus increasingly more on themovement of goods and products in space with motor vehicles and towed resources, and appropriate as the continuousimprovement of road freight transport is source of income both from the point of view of firms and in terms of state.The article aims to highlight a number of synthetic issues related to road freight transport logistics, myapproach in this research leaves room for future additions that will certainly help performance improvement intransportation logistics.

  20. Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by the internal atmospheric variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gelfan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to the uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties. Importantly, the role of the internal atmospheric variability is the most visible over the spatial–temporal scales of water management in large river basins. The internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. The ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012 and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of the bias-corrected ECHAM5-outputs as well as ensemble averaged ECHAM5-output are used as the distributed input for ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and the Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the SD of the annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as the annual runoff trend are assessed. The uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by the internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that the uncertainty of the mean and SD of the runoff has a distinguished seasonal dependence with maximum during the periods of spring-summer snowmelt and summer-autumn rainfall floods. A noticeable non-linearity of the hydrological models' response to the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvine River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. The simulated trends are close to

  1. Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy K.

    2017-03-01

    In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next decade. Predicting the climate system internal variability relies on initialising the climate model from observational estimates. We present a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following key innovations: (1) the use of a weight applied to the observed anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing anomalies recorded in the observed climate, whose amplitude does not fit in the range of the internal variability generated by the model; (2) the AI of the ocean density, instead of calculating it from the anomaly initialised state of temperature and salinity. An experiment initialised with this refined AI method has been compared with a full field and standard AI experiment. Results show that the use of such refinements enhances the surface temperature skill over part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea for the first forecast year. However, part of such improvement is lost in the following forecast years. For the tropical Pacific surface temperature, the full field initialised experiment performs the best. The prediction of the Arctic sea-ice volume is improved by the refined AI method for the first three forecast years and the skill of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is significantly increased compared to a non-initialised forecast, along the whole forecast time.

  2. Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy K.

    2016-06-01

    In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next decade. Predicting the climate system internal variability relies on initialising the climate model from observational estimates. We present a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following key innovations: (1) the use of a weight applied to the observed anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing anomalies recorded in the observed climate, whose amplitude does not fit in the range of the internal variability generated by the model; (2) the AI of the ocean density, instead of calculating it from the anomaly initialised state of temperature and salinity. An experiment initialised with this refined AI method has been compared with a full field and standard AI experiment. Results show that the use of such refinements enhances the surface temperature skill over part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea for the first forecast year. However, part of such improvement is lost in the following forecast years. For the tropical Pacific surface temperature, the full field initialised experiment performs the best. The prediction of the Arctic sea-ice volume is improved by the refined AI method for the first three forecast years and the skill of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is significantly increased compared to a non-initialised forecast, along the whole forecast time.

  3. Exploring spectral wave climate variability using a weather type approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendez, F.; Espejo, A.; Camus, P.; Losada, I.

    2012-12-01

    Traditional approaches for determining wave climate variability in scales from month to decades have been broadly focused on aggregated or statistical parameters such as significant wave height, wave energy flux or mean wave direction. These studies, although revealing the major general modes of wave climate variability and trends, do not take in consideration the complexity of the gravity wave fields. Because ocean waves are the response of both local and remote winds, analyzing directional full spectrum variability can throw light on atmosphere circulation not only over the immediate ocean region, but also over a more broadly basin-scale. In this work we use the weather type approach (data mining) to explore wave climate variability in the frequency-direction domain. This approach identifies daily to 15 daily synoptic modes (depending on the basin) of the sea level pressure (from NCEP/NCAR) over the effective fetch of one selected ocean point, finding bi-univocal relations between each synoptic pattern (weather type) and each spectral wave energy distribution. Thus, it allows exploring wave spectrum (from GOW reanalisys, WaveWatchIII) covering all temporal scales of variability: daily, monthly, seasonal, inter-annual, decadal, long term trends and future climate change projections. The proposed scheme provides valuable information improving our ocean waves understanding. Moreover this new approach can support offshore wind-wave energy farms optimization or a more rigorous determination of wave induced sediment transport between others applications.

  4. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): implementation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucio, Filipe

    2013-04-01

    development is seen as the critical element to build the foundation for progress. This includes but not limited to: - Linking climate services users and providers, e.g., through User Interface mechanisms; - Developing capacities at national level; - Strengthening regional climate capabilities. Taking advantage of exhausting mechanisms and others under planning the GFCS offers an adequate platform for coordination and integration of efforts towards effective action to deliver user tailored climate services. This paper will provide details on the implementation approach of the GFCS and highlight progress made thus far.

  5. A Gaussian graphical model approach to climate networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zerenner, Tanja, E-mail: tanjaz@uni-bonn.de [Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121 Bonn (Germany); Friederichs, Petra; Hense, Andreas [Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121 Bonn (Germany); Interdisciplinary Center for Complex Systems, University of Bonn, Brühler Straße 7, 53119 Bonn (Germany); Lehnertz, Klaus [Department of Epileptology, University of Bonn, Sigmund-Freud-Straße 25, 53105 Bonn (Germany); Helmholtz Institute for Radiation and Nuclear Physics, University of Bonn, Nussallee 14-16, 53115 Bonn (Germany); Interdisciplinary Center for Complex Systems, University of Bonn, Brühler Straße 7, 53119 Bonn (Germany)

    2014-06-15

    Distinguishing between direct and indirect connections is essential when interpreting network structures in terms of dynamical interactions and stability. When constructing networks from climate data the nodes are usually defined on a spatial grid. The edges are usually derived from a bivariate dependency measure, such as Pearson correlation coefficients or mutual information. Thus, the edges indistinguishably represent direct and indirect dependencies. Interpreting climate data fields as realizations of Gaussian Random Fields (GRFs), we have constructed networks according to the Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) approach. In contrast to the widely used method, the edges of GGM networks are based on partial correlations denoting direct dependencies. Furthermore, GRFs can be represented not only on points in space, but also by expansion coefficients of orthogonal basis functions, such as spherical harmonics. This leads to a modified definition of network nodes and edges in spectral space, which is motivated from an atmospheric dynamics perspective. We construct and analyze networks from climate data in grid point space as well as in spectral space, and derive the edges from both Pearson and partial correlations. Network characteristics, such as mean degree, average shortest path length, and clustering coefficient, reveal that the networks posses an ordered and strongly locally interconnected structure rather than small-world properties. Despite this, the network structures differ strongly depending on the construction method. Straightforward approaches to infer networks from climate data while not regarding any physical processes may contain too strong simplifications to describe the dynamics of the climate system appropriately.

  6. A Collaborative Approach to International Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godbey, Galen C.; Turlington, Barbara

    2002-01-01

    Discusses how collaboration among institutions of higher education in developing international programs and globalizing the curriculum is becoming an effective strategy in postsecondary education. Especially for small- and medium-sized institutions, collaboration can provide the scale and quality of resources needed to sustain cost-effective,…

  7. A combined mitigation/geoengineering approach to climate stabilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wigley, T M L

    2006-10-20

    Projected anthropogenic warming and increases in CO2 concentration present a twofold threat, both from climate changes and from CO2 directly through increasing the acidity of the oceans. Future climate change may be reduced through mitigation (reductions in greenhouse gas emissions) or through geoengineering. Most geoengineering approaches, however, do not address the problem of increasing ocean acidity. A combined mitigation/geoengineering strategy could remove this deficiency. Here we consider the deliberate injection of sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. This action could substantially offset future warming and provide additional time to reduce human dependence on fossil fuels and stabilize CO2 concentrations cost-effectively at an acceptable level.

  8. A new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribes, Aurélien; Zwiers, Francis W.; Azaïs, Jean-Marc; Naveau, Philippe

    2017-01-01

    We propose here a new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution that is based on additive decomposition and simple hypothesis testing. Most current statistical methods for detection and attribution rely on linear regression models where the observations are regressed onto expected response patterns to different external forcings. These methods do not use physical information provided by climate models regarding the expected response magnitudes to constrain the estimated responses to the forcings. Climate modelling uncertainty is difficult to take into account with regression based methods and is almost never treated explicitly. As an alternative to this approach, our statistical model is only based on the additivity assumption; the proposed method does not regress observations onto expected response patterns. We introduce estimation and testing procedures based on likelihood maximization, and show that climate modelling uncertainty can easily be accounted for. Some discussion is provided on how to practically estimate the climate modelling uncertainty based on an ensemble of opportunity. Our approach is based on the " models are statistically indistinguishable from the truth" paradigm, where the difference between any given model and the truth has the same distribution as the difference between any pair of models, but other choices might also be considered. The properties of this approach are illustrated and discussed based on synthetic data. Lastly, the method is applied to the linear trend in global mean temperature over the period 1951-2010. Consistent with the last IPCC assessment report, we find that most of the observed warming over this period (+0.65 K) is attributable to anthropogenic forcings (+0.67 ± 0.12 K, 90 % confidence range), with a very limited contribution from natural forcings (-0.01± 0.02 K).

  9. INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL NETWORK ENTERPRISES GENERAL APPROACHES

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to make distinction between multiple uses of the word "network" considered both inside and outside the enterprise. Starting from the reference literature on supply chain management, logistic, networks of enterprises, this article presents the main features of internal and external enterprise networks and investigates their impact on enterprises' organization manner. We also explore the relationship between networks and innovation deployment.

  10. Climate Change and Regulation in International and Regional Level, Especially the Built Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putnoki Zsuzsanna

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article starts with a brief insight into the history of climate change, with a scope on the international and legal aspects of ever-changing regulations. The regional level is in the article is The European Union, as the only regional economic integration organization under the Kyoto Protocol. It deals with the United Nation’s international agreements like UNFCCC its Kyoto’s Protocol and the Post-Kyoto era. It also analyses the EU’s system in the climate change law with correspondence the international rules. Comparison between international and regional legislation in the climate change is used as a tool of analysis. Finally an insight is given into a special field in the climate change, the build environment, reflecting on the related United Nation’s recommendation and the EU’s regulation.

  11. Business planning for digital libraries international approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Collier, Mel

    2010-01-01

    This book brings together international experience of business planning for digital libraries: the business case, the planning processes involved, the costs and benefi ts, practice and standards, and comparison with the traditional library where appropriate. Although there is a vast literature already on other aspects of digital libraries, business planning is a subject that until now has not been systematically integrated in a book.Digital libraries are being created not only by traditional libraries, but by museums, archives, media organizations, and indeed any organization concerned with ma

  12. 75 FR 17989 - Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental Scientific Affairs; Climate Action Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-08

    ... of Oceans and International Environmental Scientific Affairs; Climate Action Report AGENCY... submitted the first U.S. Climate Action Report (CAR) to the UNFCCC Secretariat in 1994, and subsequent reports in 1997, 2002, and 2006. The U.S. Government has prepared an initial draft of the fifth...

  13. Internal Flow Management in a Multi-Zone Climate Control Unit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persis, C. De; Jessen, J.J.; Izadi-Zamanabadi, R.; Schiøler, H.

    2006-01-01

    In this contribution, we examine a dynamic model describing the evolution of internal climate conditions in a closed environment partitioned into zones for which different climate conditions must be guaranteed. The zones are not separated, large air masses are exchanged among them, and the behavior

  14. Responses to Climate Change: Exploring Organisational Learning across Internationally Networked Organisations for Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Emily; Osbahr, Henny

    2010-01-01

    Drawing from the organisational learning and governance literature, this paper assesses four internationally networked governmental and non-governmental organisations in the UK addressing climate change. We analyse how those concerned understand the climate change crisis, what mechanisms are put in place to address information flows, and what…

  15. International experiences on the formulation and implementation of transboundary climate change adaptation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmerman, J.G.; Ly, T.; Nguyen Huong Thuy, P.

    2014-01-01

    The Mekong River Commission’s (MRC) Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) aims at formulating the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Lower Mekong Basin. An important first step in developing this strategy is to review international experiences of existing strategies, to learn from

  16. Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    scientific understanding of global climate and other environmental and disaster-related phenomena , and consider the implications for both fundamental...Conference “From Bali to Poznan – New Issues, New Challenges.” Conference 12/14/07 H.R. 1585: 2008 Defense Authorization Bill passed House and...Article 12/03/07- 12/14/07 Thirteenth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bali . - Closing

  17. Climate change effects on international stability : a white paper.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Kathryn; Taylor, Mark A.; Fujii, Joy; Malczynski, Leonard A.; McNamara, Laura A.; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Sprigg, James A.; Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2004-12-01

    This white paper represents a summary of work intended to lay the foundation for development of a climatological/agent model of climate-induced conflict. The paper combines several loosely-coupled efforts and is the final report for a four-month late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project funded by the Advanced Concepts Group (ACG). The project involved contributions by many participants having diverse areas of expertise, with the common goal of learning how to tie together the physical and human causes and consequences of climate change. We performed a review of relevant literature on conflict arising from environmental scarcity. Rather than simply reviewing the previous work, we actively collected data from the referenced sources, reproduced some of the work, and explored alternative models. We used the unfolding crisis in Darfur (western Sudan) as a case study of conflict related to or triggered by climate change, and as an exercise for developing a preliminary concept map. We also outlined a plan for implementing agents in a climate model and defined a logical progression toward the ultimate goal of running both types of models simultaneously in a two-way feedback mode, where the behavior of agents influences the climate and climate change affects the agents. Finally, we offer some ''lessons learned'' in attempting to keep a diverse and geographically dispersed group working together by using Web-based collaborative tools.

  18. Urbanism, climate change and health: systems approaches to governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capon, Anthony G; Synnott, Emma S; Holliday, Sue

    2009-01-01

    Effective action on climate change health impacts and vulnerability will require systems approaches and integrated policy and planning responses from a range of government agencies. Similar responses are needed to address other complex problems, such as the obesity epidemic. Local government, with its focus on the governance of place, will have a key role in responding to these convergent agendas. Industry can also be part of the solution - indeed it must be, because it has a lead role in relevant sectors. Understanding the co-benefits for health of climate mitigation actions will strengthen the case for early action. There is a need for improved decision support tools to inform urban governance. These tools should be based on a systems approach and should incorporate a spatial perspective.

  19. Factorial validity and internal consistency of the motivational climate in physical education scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soini, Markus; Liukkonen, Jarmo; Watt, Anthony; Yli-Piipari, Sami; Jaakkola, Timo

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the study was to examine the construct validity and internal consistency of the Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale (MCPES). A key element of the development process of the scale was establishing a theoretical framework that integrated the dimensions of task- and ego involving climates in conjunction with autonomy, and social relatedness supporting climates. These constructs were adopted from the self-determination and achievement goal theories. A sample of Finnish Grade 9 students, comprising 2,594 girls and 1,803 boys, completed the 18-item MCPES during one physical education class. The results of the study demonstrated that participants had highest mean in task-involving climate and the lowest in autonomy climate and ego-involving climate. Additionally, autonomy, social relatedness, and task- involving climates were significantly and strongly correlated with each other, whereas the ego- involving climate had low or negligible correlations with the other climate dimensions.The construct validity of the MCPES was analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis. The statistical fit of the four-factor model consisting of motivational climate factors supporting perceived autonomy, social relatedness, task-involvement, and ego-involvement was satisfactory. The results of the reliability analysis showed acceptable internal consistencies for all four dimensions. The Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale can be considered as psychometrically valid tool to measure motivational climate in Finnish Grade 9 students. Key PointsThis study developed Motivational Climate in School Physical Education Scale (MCPES). During the development process of the scale, the theoretical framework using dimensions of task- and ego involving as well as autonomy, and social relatedness supporting climates was constructed. These constructs were adopted from the self-determination and achievement goal theories.The statistical fit of the four-factor model of the

  20. The international climate regime: towards consolidation collapse; Le regime international pour le climat: vers la consolidation ou l'effondrement?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berthaud, P. [Universite Pierre Mendes France, 38 - Grenoble (France); Cavard, D.; Criqui, P. [Lab. d' Economie de la Protection et de l' Integration International, Departement Energie et Politiques de l' Environnement (EPE/LEPII), CNRS/UPMF, 38 - Saint-Martin d' Heres (France)

    2003-10-01

    This article deals with the different modalities that exist to manage a problem of collective action in the field of climate negotiation. It uses two concepts of the International Political Economy (IPE): the concept of International Regime (IR) and the concept of Hegemony and / or Leadership. The course the international negotiation has taken between 1992 (Rio Convention) and march 2001 (the US rejection of the Kyoto Protocol of 1997) leads us, first, to question the conditions of existence as well as the viability of a non-hegemonic International Regime (Part One). Then, we discuss the perspectives for the 'post - Kyoto' era. After having examined the preferences of the three most active actors in the negotiation (USA, Europe, G77 + China) combined with the leadership capacities they possess, we identify three scenarios for the future: i) anarchy, ii) an international regime under the American hegemony, iii) an international regime under the European leadership (Part Two). (author)

  1. Comparisons on International Approaches of Business and Project Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Nadia Carmen ENE

    2005-01-01

    In this article we intend to present a comparative approach between three recognized international methodologies for risk management: RISKMAN, Project Management Institute Methodology-PMBoK and Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide (produced by Association for Project Management).

  2. Multi-basket approaches to climate and environmental policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Katsumasa

    2014-05-01

    Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) receive increasing attention because emission abatements of most of these substances not only reduce air pollution but also slow down the global warming. Cutting the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a long-lived gas in contrast, is of primary importance to mitigate the global climate change as well as to stop ocean acidification. To keep abreast of such multiple challenges in a flexible and cost-effective manner, emission caps can be specified in terms of a reference gas (e.g., CO2) and emissions of different components can be converted according to emission metrics. However, under a current one-basket approach (used continuously in the Kyoto Protocol), which allows trading for all the components, any emission metrics may not be scientifically acceptable due to their diverse atmospheric lifetimes among many other reasons. Here we question whether an emerging multi-basket approach, which groups substances based on their atmospheric lifetimes and permits trading for components within each basket, is more robust in guiding us to achieve multiple policy targets and more useful to maintain the balance between SLCP and CO2 abatements with relatively small additional costs. In a wider context a multi-basket approach may simplify the dialogue among stakeholders and underpin a parallel pursuit of multiple climate and environmental challenges that our society faces.

  3. Controlling a hurricane by altering its internal climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardhekar, D.

    2010-09-01

    Atmospheric hazards, like the fury of a hurricane, can be controlled by altering its internal climate. The hurricane controlling technique suggested is eco-friendly, compatible with hurricane size, has a sound scientific base and is practically possible. The key factor is a large scale dilution of the hurricane fuel, vapour, in the eye wall and spiral rain bands where condensation causing vapor volume reduction (a new concept which can be explained by Avogadro's law) and latent heat release drive the storm. This can be achieved by installing multiple storage tanks containing dry liquefied air on the onshore and offshore coastal regions and islands, preferably underground, in the usual path of a hurricane. Each storage tank is designed to hold and release dry liquefied air of around 100,000 tons. Satellite tracking of hurricanes can locate the eye wall and the spiral rain bands. The installed storage tanks coming under these areas will rapidly inject dry air in huge quantities thereby diluting the vapour content of the vapour-rich air in the eye wall and in the spiral rain bands. This will result in reduced natural input of vapour-rich air, reduced release of latent heat, reduced formation of the low pressure zone due to condensation and volume reduction of the vapor, expansion of the artificially introduced dry air as it goes up occupying a larger space with the diluted fuel, absorption of energy from the system by low temperature of the artificially introduced air. It will effect considerable condensation of the vapor near the sea surface thus further starving the hurricane of its fuel in its engine. Seeding materials, or microscopic dust as suggested by Dr. Daniel Rosenfeld in large quantities may also be introduced via the flow of the injected dry air in order to enhance the hurricane controlling ability. All the above factors are in favour of retarding the hurricane's wind speed and power. The sudden weakening of hurricane Lili was found to be partially caused

  4. Climate policy in India: what shapes international, national and state policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atteridge, Aaron; Shrivastava, Manish Kumar; Pahuja, Neha; Upadhyay, Himani

    2012-01-01

    At the international level, India is emerging as a key actor in climate negotiations, while at the national and sub-national levels, the climate policy landscape is becoming more active and more ambitious. It is essential to unravel this complex landscape if we are to understand why policy looks the way it does, and the extent to which India might contribute to a future international framework for tackling climate change as well as how international parties might cooperate with and support India's domestic efforts. Drawing on both primary and secondary data, this paper analyzes the material and ideational drivers that are most strongly influencing policy choices at different levels, from international negotiations down to individual states. We argue that at each level of decision making in India, climate policy is embedded in wider policy concerns. In the international realm, it is being woven into broader foreign policy strategy, while domestically, it is being shaped to serve national and sub-national development interests. While our analysis highlights some common drivers at all levels, it also finds that their influences over policy are not uniform across the different arenas, and in some cases, they work in different ways at different levels of policy. We also indicate what this may mean for the likely acceptability within India of various climate policies being pushed at the international level.

  5. Teacher Professional Development: International Perspectives and Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo Bautista

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Nations around the world are currently embarked in deep reforms of their education systems. There is widespread agreement among policymakers, scholars, and educators that one of the keys for success during these reforms is promoting the professional development (PD of in-service teachers. Every year, governments invest astronomical amounts of money on teacher continuous learning. However, the literature shows that much of the PD offered to teachers is inefficient, having small or no effect on teaching practices and/or student learning. This monograph describes the perspectives and approaches to teacher PD of five nations heavily committed to research and/or practice in this field. Understanding how PD is structured in these nations may guide others in designing more favorable learning opportunities for their teachers. The article from United States provides a general framework regarding the features of high-quality PD and offers examples of recent effective initiatives. The four following articles describe the PD models of Australia, Hong Kong, Finland, and Singapore, among the highest-achievers in education presently. Because teacher continuous learning is a high priority in these nations, strong infrastructures for high-quality PD have been built to meet teachers’ needs and interests. The monograph closes with a contribution from Spain, the country where the journal Psychology, Society and Education is edited. The author discusses the five prior articles and reflects on how the ideas presented could improve the PD currently offered to teachers in other nations, particularly Spain.

  6. Understanding Principal Leadership: An International Perspective and a Narrative Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Charles L.

    2011-01-01

    This article reviews recent literature in educational administration that supports the argument that leadership matters. School principals exert influence on teachers, who in turn affect student achievement. There is a need for an international approach both to replicate large studies and to use a narrative approach to study leaders in their…

  7. Predicting climate extremes – a complex network approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Weimer

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Regional decadal predictions have emerged in the past few years as a research field with high application potential, especially for extremes like heat and drought periods. However, up to now the prediction skill of decadal hindcasts, as evaluated with standard methods is moderate, and for extreme values even rarely investigated. In this study, we use hindcast data from a regional climate model (CCLM for 8 regions in Europe to construct time evolving climate networks and use the network correlation threshold (link strength as a predictor for heat periods. We show that the skill of the network measure to predict the low frequency dynamics of heat periods is similar to the one of the standard approach, with the potential of being even better in some regions.

  8. Raising Climate Finance from International Transport Sectors. Identification and Analysis of Governance Structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faber, J. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Pahuja, N.; Garg, A. [The Energy and Resources Institute TERI, New Delhi (India)

    2012-03-15

    Market based instruments (MBIs) for maritime transport have the potential to reduce emissions while at the same time raising funds for climate policies in developing countries. GHG emissions from international aviation and maritime transport accounted for approximately 5% of global anthropogenic emissions in 2005 and are rising rapidly. There is a clear need to address these emissions in order not to undermine policies for mitigating land based emissions. Developing countries need financial support to carry out climate policies, both adaptation and mitigation. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) makes policies by developing countries conditional on climate finance. In the current economic and financial circumstances, there is a need for new sources of finance. The governance of such MBIs should ensure that they are neither an international tax nor require hypothecation of fiscal revenues, while they should provide new and additional finance. MBIs which are in fact an international tax would not be politically feasible, and likewise hypothecation would be opposed by many states. This report finds that an emissions trading scheme (ETS) can satisfy these criteria, provided that: (1) it transfers a share of allowances directly to developing countries in order to ensure there is no net incidence on them; developing countries could auction these allowances in order to raise revenue; (2) it transfers allowances to the Green Climate Fund to support climate policies; auctioning these allowances would provide revenues for the Fund; (3) it transfers allowances to IMO or another organisation in order to finance fuel-efficiency improvements in international transport.

  9. International Façades - CROFT. Climate Related Optimized Façade Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcel Bilow

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Looking at Central European building projects illustrates an awareness of sustainability and the need to save energy. This trend is based on the finiteness of natural resources, and is thus wise to follow. Developments in this region including passive house technologies, and energy plus solutions that create more energy than they use have become realisable. But it is not increasing technological knowledge alone that supported these developments; the Central European climate makes it possible to invent technological solutions that allow for maximum comfort while maintaining low energy consumption.Other regions have experienced a building boom over the past decades that has dramatically increased city sizes. A detailed examination of such building projects illustrates that most of them strive for the international standard with a high glazing ratio in the style of the Central European examples. But how can architecture be transferred to regions with entirely different climate conditions? The answer lies in the technological possibilities we have at our disposal today. The main research question of this thesis refers to utilising the local climate. Which methods are necessary to plan a building - and a façade as the interface between the inside and the outside, in particular - while working with, not against the climate? Sailing has been used as an analogy: only with the knowledge of winds and tides can we use them to efficiently move across bodies of water. Those who have not learned or understood this will have to use a motorboat and pay the price for petrol.Chapter 2 ‘Climate zones’ describes the different climate zones and their particularities, analysed with the help of eight different boomtowns. The mild Central European climate becomes particularly apparent when compared to tropic locations such as Singapore. Here, very high average temperatures and humidity levels require that we rethink and find new solutions.In chapter 3

  10. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  11. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  12. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    OpenAIRE

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s...

  13. Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari Kovats, R.; Edwards, Sally J.; Charron, Dominique; Cowden, John; D'Souza, Rennie M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gauci, Charmaine; Gerner-Smidt, Peter; Hajat, Shakoor; Hales, Simon; Hernández Pezzi, Gloria; Kriz, Bohumir; Kutsar, Kuulo; McKeown, Paul; Mellou, Kassiani; Menne, Bettina; O'Brien, Sarah; Pelt, Wilfrid; Schmid, Hans

    2005-03-01

    Campylobacter is among the most important agents of enteritis in developed countries. We have described the potential environmental determinants of the seasonal pattern of infection with campylobacter in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Specifically, we investigated the role of climate variability on laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacter infection from 15 populations. Regression analysis was used to quantify the associations between timing of seasonal peaks in infection in space and time. The short-term association between weekly weather and cases was also investigated using Poisson regression adapted for time series data. All countries in our study showed a distinct seasonality in campylobacter transmission, with many, but not all, populations showing a peak in spring. Countries with milder winters have peaks of infection earlier in the year. The timing of the peak of infection is weakly associated with high temperatures 3 months previously. Weekly variation in campylobacter infection in one region of the UK appeared to be little affected by short-term changes in weather patterns. The geographical variation in the timing of the seasonal peak suggests that climate may be a contributing factor to campylobacter transmission. The main driver of seasonality of campylobacter remains elusive and underscores the need to identify the major serotypes and routes of transmission for this disease.

  14. International and European Law on Protected Areas and Climate Change: Need for Adaptation or Implementation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliquet, A.

    2014-10-01

    The protection and management of protected areas must be adapted to the effects of climate change. An important question is if the law on protected areas is capable of dealing with the required changes. In general, both international nature conventions and European Union nature conservation law do not contain any specific provisions on climate change and protected areas. Attention has been paid to this link in non-binding decisions and policy documents. In order to adapt the law to increased dynamics from climate change, more flexibility is needed. This flexibility should not be understood as "legal" flexibility, in the sense of the weakening nature conservation provisions. Scientific uncertainties on the effects of climate change might conflict with the need for legal certainties. In order to adapt to the effects of climate change, the two crucial elements are the strengthening of core protected areas and connectivity between the core areas. At the international level, both elements can be found in non-binding documents. International law enables the required adaptation; however, it often lacks concrete obligations. A stronger legal framework can be found at the level of the European Union. The Birds and Habitats Directives contain sufficient tools to deal with the effects of climate change. The Directives have been insufficiently implemented so far. Especially the central goals of reaching a favorable conservation status and connectivity measures need to be addressed much more in the future.

  15. International and European law on protected areas and climate change: need for adaptation or implementation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliquet, A

    2014-10-01

    The protection and management of protected areas must be adapted to the effects of climate change. An important question is if the law on protected areas is capable of dealing with the required changes. In general, both international nature conventions and European Union nature conservation law do not contain any specific provisions on climate change and protected areas. Attention has been paid to this link in non-binding decisions and policy documents. In order to adapt the law to increased dynamics from climate change, more flexibility is needed. This flexibility should not be understood as "legal" flexibility, in the sense of the weakening nature conservation provisions. Scientific uncertainties on the effects of climate change might conflict with the need for legal certainties. In order to adapt to the effects of climate change, the two crucial elements are the strengthening of core protected areas and connectivity between the core areas. At the international level, both elements can be found in non-binding documents. International law enables the required adaptation; however, it often lacks concrete obligations. A stronger legal framework can be found at the level of the European Union. The Birds and Habitats Directives contain sufficient tools to deal with the effects of climate change. The Directives have been insufficiently implemented so far. Especially the central goals of reaching a favorable conservation status and connectivity measures need to be addressed much more in the future.

  16. Climate change damage and international law. Prevention duties and state responsibility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verheyen, R.

    2005-07-01

    This book is the first comprehensive assessment of the legal duties of states with regard to human induced climate change damage. By discussing the current state of climate science in the context of binding international law, it convincingly argues that compensation for such damage could indeed be recoverable. The author analyses legal duties requiring states to prevent climate change damage, and discusses to what extent a breach of these duties will give rise to state responsibility (international liability). The analysis includes the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, but also various nature/ biodiversity protection and law of the sea instruments, as well as the no-harm-rule as a key provision of customary international law. The challenge in applying the different aspects of the law on state responsibility, including causation and standard of proof, are discussed in three case studies, and the questions raised by multiple polluters explored in depth. Against this background, the author advocates an internationally negotiated solution to the issue of climate change damage.

  17. International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments: Conference summary and statement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-08-01

    The International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments was held in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, from May 22--25, 1995. Sponsored by the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the US Country Studies Program, and the directorate General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands Government, it was the first international conference focusing exclusively on adaptation to climate change. More than 100 people from 29 countries on five continents participated. The conference primarily addressed measures to anticipate the potential effects of climate change to minimize negative effects and take advantage of any positive effects. The focus was on what governments, institutions, and individuals can do to prepare for climate change. The conference dealt with two major topics: What adaptation options are most effective and efficient in anticipating climate change and what methods should be used to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptation options. Brief summaries are given from the following sessions on agriculture; Water resources; coastal resources; ecosystems and forests; fisheries; human settlements; water and agriculture; and the panel session on international adaptation in national communications and other development plans and needs for technical assistance.

  18. Impacts on Canadian Competitiveness of International Climate Change Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin Somerville

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes and provides additional perspective on a study that contributes to the growing body of analyses of the costs of limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The study estimates the economic costs to Canada of six planning scenarios. Four of these scenarios involve the use of tradable emission permits and two involved a carbon tax. In each case, the mechanism's target is to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at some percentage of 1990 levels (100% or 90% by either 2010 or 2015. Policies that impose greater constraints on carbon dioxide emissions lead to higher economic costs in terms of foregone output. These costs, however, vary for the same objective, depending on the mechanism chosen and the economic assumptions made. In one typical scenario, in which tradable emission permits are used to achieve stabilization at 1990 levels by 2010, GDP is depressed from the "business-as-usual" scenario by about 2% for the first decade, after which it recovers to business-as-usual levels. Generally, for all scenarios, the economic impact of climate change mitigation imposes a transition cost on the economy, but the long-term productive capacity of the economy is not significantly affected.

  19. Permafrost: An International Approach to 21th Century Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J.

    2003-12-01

    Whereas glaciers are easily discernible to the human eye and satellites, permafrost terrains and their physical components are not easily detected from the surface without supplemental knowledge and measurements. In the Northern Hemisphere, approximately 17 million km2 of exposed land contains some extent of permafrost or ground that remains frozen for more than two years. The vast majority, or 11 million km2, of permafrost terrain has temperatures of 5° C or below, with perennially frozen ground underlying essentially all ground surfaces to considerable depths. Permafrost in the remaining regions, including mid-latitude mountains, is both warmer and is spatially variable (discontinuous). As climate warms the uppermost permafrost is subjected to increase thaw with resulting ground subsidence, accelerated erosion, and related biogeochemical modifications. The challenging questions to geocryologists, modelers and the public relate to the rate of change and the spatial variability of the projected thaw, particularly in the warmer zones where actual areal and subareal distribution of permafrost is poorly known. An international network of active layer measurements and borehole sites now exists under the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), but requires additional sites for representative coverage. This Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) is coordinated by the 24-member, International Permafrost Association. At the Eighth International Conference on Permafrost (ICOP) in Zurich in July 2003, the IPA Council agreed on the scope of new activities for the next five years, many of which will be undertaken in cooperation with other international organizations (e.g. WCRP/CliC; ICSI, IASC, SCAR, IGU, IUGS). Examples of the activities of the IPA Working Groups are: 1. Antarctic Permafrost and Periglacial Environments (active layer processes, maps, database). 2. Coastal and Offshore Permafrost (sediment and organic transfers, subsea permafrost dynamics). 3

  20. From Principle to Action. An Analysis of the Financial Sector's Approach to Addressing Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mudde, P.; Abadie, A. [Sustainable Finance, Shrewsbury, Shropshire (United Kingdom)

    2008-05-15

    The Ministry of the Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment of the Netherlands (VROM), has taken the initiative to commission a study to determine best practice approaches within the financial sector regarding climate change. This study focuses on the indirect climate change footprint of the financial sector, i.e. the impact of the financial sector's clients on climate change. The study sets out to further the body of knowledge relating to the financial sector's approach to understanding and managing the effects of climate change on their clients' business. Specifically, it offers recommendations and potential next steps for both the financial sector and the Dutch government to enable a more focused and definitive approach to understanding, addressing and incorporating climate change considerations into decision-making procedures and policy development. The paper comprises the following analysis: Chapter 1 is an introduction describing why climate change is relevant to the financial sector, and introduces 18 financial institutions which were selected as the basis for the study. Chapter 2 elaborates on challenges for the financial sector regarding the incorporation of climate change considerations into enhanced risk analysis and decision making. Chapter 3 provides a comprehensive overview of the main international business initiatives regarding climate change and sustainability. It can be seen as a summary of Annex I to this report, which identifies which initiatives the 18 financial institutions are involved in. Chapter 4 highlights selected best practices amongst the 18 financial institutions assessed. Chapter 5 provides the main conclusions of the study and puts forward general and specific recommendations and potential next steps for the Dutch government and the financial sector. The Annexes contain fact sheets containing information about the climate change strategy and main activities of these organisations.

  1. How much can disaster and climate science contribute to loss and damage mechanisms in international climate policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Allen, Simon; Eicken, Hajo; Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2015-04-01

    As the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently has shown, there is increasing evidence of observed impacts of climate change on natural and human systems. Some of these impacts are negative and result in damage and loss of lives and assets. In international climate policy negotiations under the UNFCCC the discussions on loss and damage have gained significant traction during the past negotiation rounds. At COP 19 the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) was created as an institutional arrangement to address this issue. Thereby, loss and damage (L&D) are typically defined as the residual damage and loss that occur beyond mitigation and adaptation efforts. This implies that effective mitigation and adaptation policy can substantially reduce L&D. While there is wide agreement that knowledge and understanding needs to be strengthened on how L&D due to climate change affects countries, in particular highly vulnerable countries and populations, there is still substantial disagreement on several aspects. In fact, after COP20 in Lima a number of options are on the table, including whether L&D should be located under the adaptation framework or form a separate institutional arrangement, or whether a compensation regime should be established to support developing countries. Similarly, the scientific framework for a clear L&D concept, its application in real-world cases, and implications for international climate policy, in particular with respect to questions of responsibility, liability, compensation and financing, is still evolving. Earlier proposals, for instance, have included a threshold concept, with payments released upon crossing of certain thresholds of climate (related) parameters, similar to insurance procedures. The threshold would be defined as a departure of the parameter from baseline conditions, for instance a rainfall event that is more intense than a certain baseline based threshold. Further

  2. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

    2017-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

  3. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

    2016-10-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

  4. Survey of International Members of the American Thoracic Society on Climate Change and Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarfaty, Mona; Kreslake, Jennifer; Ewart, Gary; Guidotti, Tee L; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Maibach, Edward W

    2016-10-01

    The American Thoracic Society (ATS), in collaboration with George Mason University, surveyed international members of the society to assess perceptions, clinical experiences, and preferred policy responses related to global climate change. A recruitment email was sent by the ATS President in October 2015 to 5,013 international members. Subsequently, four reminder emails were sent to nonrespondents. Responses were received from 489 members in 68 countries; the response rate was 9.8%. Half of respondents reported working in countries in Asia (25%) or Europe (25%), with the remainder in South America (18%), North America (Canada and Mexico) (18%), Australia or New Zealand (9%), and Africa (6%). Survey estimate confidence intervals were ± 5% or smaller. A high percentage of international ATS survey respondents judged that climate change is happening (96%), that it is driven by human activity (70%), and that it is relevant to patient care ("a great deal"/"a moderate amount") (80%). A majority of respondents also indicated they are already observing health impacts of climate change among their patients; most commonly as increases in chronic disease severity from air pollution (88%), allergic symptoms from exposure to plants or mold (72%), and severe weather injuries (69%). An even larger majority anticipated seeing these climate-related health impacts in the next two decades. Respondents further indicated that physicians and physician organizations should play an active role in educating patients, the public, and policy makers on the human health effects of climate change. International ATS respondents, like their counterparts in the U.S., observed that human health is already adversely affected by climate change, and support responses to address this situation.

  5. Report of the international workshop on quality control of monthly climate data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-12-31

    The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), the US Department of Energy`s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) cosponsored an international quality control workshop for monthly climate data, October 5--6, 1993, at NCDC. About 40 scientists from around the world participated. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss and compare various quality control methods and to draft recommendations concerning the most successful systems. The near-term goal to improve quality control of CLIMAT messages for the NCDC/WMO publication Monthly Climatic Data for the World was sucessfully met. An electronic bulletin board was established to post errors and corrections. Improved communications among Global Telecommunication System hubs will be implemented. Advanced quality control algorithms were discussed and improvements were suggested. Further data exchanges were arranged.

  6. Melting empires? Climate change and politics in Antarctica since the International Geophysical Year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howkins, Adrian

    2011-01-01

    This article examines the relationship between climate change and politics in Antarctica since the International Geophysical Year of 1957-8, paying particular attention to the work of the British Antarctic Survey. Research conducted in Antarctica has played an important role in the understanding of climate change on a global scale. In turn, fears about the consequences of global climate change have radically changed perceptions of Antarctica and profoundly shaped scientific research agendas: a continent that until fifty years ago was perceived largely as an inhospitable wilderness has come to be seen as a dangerously vulnerable environment. This radical shift in perception contrasts with a fundamental continuity in the political power structures of the continent. This article argues that the severity of the threat of climate change has reinforced the privileged political position of the "insider" nations within the Antarctic Treaty System.

  7. Enhancing international technology cooperation for climate change mitigation. Lessons from an electromobility case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhasin, Shikha

    2014-07-01

    As a global agreement on climate mitigation and absolute emissions reductions remains grid-locked, this paper assesses whether the prospects for international technology cooperation in low-carbon sectors can be improved. It analyses the case of international cooperation on electric vehicle technologies to elaborate on the trade-offs that cooperation such as this inherently attempts to balance- national growth objectives of industrial and technology development versus the global goods benefit of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It focuses on bilateral German-Chinese programmes for electric vehicle development, as well as multilateral platforms on low-carbon technology cooperation related to electric vehicles. Based on insights from these cases studies, this paper ultimately provides policy recommendations to address gaps in international technology cooperation at a bilateral level for ongoing German-Chinese engagement on electric vehicles; and at a multilateral level with a focus on the emerging technology cooperation framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

  8. Internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability in the Kiel climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Ding, Hui; Keenlyside, Noel S. [Leibniz-Inst. fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany)

    2009-08-15

    The internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability is investigated by means of a multimillennial control run and forced experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The internal variability is studied by analyzing the control run. The externally forced variability is investigated in a run with periodic millennial solar forcing and in greenhouse warming experiments with enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. The surface air temperature (SAT) averaged over the Northern Hemisphere simulated in the control run displays enhanced variability relative to the red background at decadal, centennial, and millennial timescales. Special emphasis is given to the variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). The MOC plays an important role in the generation of internal climate modes. Furthermore, the MOC provides a strong negative feedback on the Northern Hemisphere SAT in both the solar and greenhouse warming experiments, thereby moderating the direct effects of the external forcing in the North Atlantic. The implications of the results for decadal predictability are discussed. (orig.)

  9. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  10. Generation and transfer of internal variability in a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Simon

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available There is a strong need for tools allowing the comparison between the performance of a regional climate model (RCM and the corresponding model providing lateral boundary conditions (LBC for the RCM, which is a global general circulation model (GCM in most cases. A method is presented to investigate the temporal scales on which a RCM is able to generate internal variability on its own and on which variability is copied from the driving model. This is implemented by a cross-spectral analysis between the RCM output and a bi-linearly interpolated version of the driving model, leading to an estimate of the coherence spectrum. Applying the aforementioned technique to surface temperature and temperature and specific humidity at 850 hPa from the RCM COSMO-CLM East Asia with a horizontal resolution of 50 km and its driving model ECHAM5, it was found that features in the spatial distribution of coherence are related to atmospheric dynamics in East Asia, e.g. monsoons and inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ. A further application to a double-nesting approach, where COSMO-CLM East Asia is the driving model for two domains – namely the Haihe catchment and the Poyang catchment – each with a horizontal resolution of 7 km, shows that the frequencies on which internal variability is generated by the driven model are much higher compared to the first nesting step. Concluding RCMs can produce a considerable variability on the respective temporal scales. This implies that a dynamical downscaling with a re-analysis as LBC is conceptually different to a regional re-analysis, i.e. data assimilation on the regional scale.

  11. A strategic approach for existing buildings to withstand climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2012-01-01

    change for buildings is given. The actions include four stages: a survey of the performance, the impact of climate change, the vulnerability of the existing building stock and climate adaptation needs. This leads to the identification of a risk-based strategic framework for adaptation to climate change...

  12. Globalization and International Management: In Search of an Interdisciplinary Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Lucia Guedes

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper, based on the international relations and international political economy literature, shows that the international management field has been influenced by certain national interests, particularly from the United States, and also that it reproduces a particular theory of globalization that benefits the interests of transnational corporations. One of the most concerning outcomes of this dominant perspective is the suppression of governance issues ‘managed’ by these corporations and the interests of other key agents, such as governments. The interdisciplinary approach outlined in this paper challenges the hegemonic influence of the globalist theory within the international management field. The approach proposed addresses the domains of management and governance by recognizing from a multidimensional perspective on globalization, the political and economic interfaces between public and private, and more specifically, between government and transnational corporations. This could make the knowledge produced by the field relevant not only to transnational corporations but also to local governments, local managers, public administrators and policy makers in developing countries.

  13. Coastal Blue Carbon: Climate and Coastal Resilience National and International Policy Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton-Grier, A.; McCarty, A.

    2014-12-01

    There is growing interest nationally and internationally in leveraging the carbon benefits (termed "blue carbon") of coastal habitats in climate and coastal resilience policies. Coastal wetlands (specifically mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows) have unique characteristics that make them incredibly efficient, natural carbon sinks with most carbon stored belowground in soils. Protecting and restoring these ecosystems around the globe will help maintain all the societal benefits these ecosystems provide including the natural climate mitigation benefits, but also the food security, water quality, and storm protection benefits that enhance coastal communities and economies. This presentation will focus on some emerging policy opportunities including: (1) incorporation of coastal wetland carbon in U.S. national climate, resilience, and conservation efforts; (2) potential steps to incorporate coastal wetlands in national greenhouse gas inventories as suggested by the 2013 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Wetlands Supplement; and (3) dialogue at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) about blue carbon habitats and their potential for inclusion. The presentation will conclude by highlighting some of the most pressing blue carbon scientific gaps that need to be filled in order to support these developing policies.

  14. Climatic Data Integration and Analysis - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seamon, E.; Gessler, P. E.; Flathers, E.; Sheneman, L.; Gollberg, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA) is a five-year USDA/NIFA-funded coordinated agriculture project to examine the sustainability of cereal crop production systems in the Pacific Northwest, in relationship to ongoing climate change. As part of this effort, an extensive data management system has been developed to enable researchers, students, and the public, to upload, manage, and analyze various data. The REACCH PNA data management team has developed three core systems to encompass cyberinfrastructure and data management needs: 1) the reacchpna.org portal (https://www.reacchpna.org) is the entry point for all public and secure information, with secure access by REACCH PNA members for data analysis, uploading, and informational review; 2) the REACCH PNA Data Repository is a replicated, redundant database server environment that allows for file and database storage and access to all core data; and 3) the REACCH PNA Libraries which are functional groupings of data for REACCH PNA members and the public, based on their access level. These libraries are accessible thru our https://www.reacchpna.org portal. The developed system is structured in a virtual server environment (data, applications, web) that includes a geospatial database/geospatial web server for web mapping services (ArcGIS Server), use of ESRI's Geoportal Server for data discovery and metadata management (under the ISO 19115-2 standard), Thematic Realtime Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) for data cataloging, and Interactive Python notebook server (IPython) technology for data analysis. REACCH systems are housed and maintained by the Northwest Knowledge Network project (www.northwestknowledge.net), which provides data management services to support research. Initial project data harvesting and meta-tagging efforts have resulted in the interrogation and loading of over 10 terabytes of climate model output, regional entomological data

  15. Building Upon Kyoto. The Long Term Prospects of International Climate Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-06-23

    The first day of this two-day conference reviewed the UNFCCC process and the latest climate science as well as in-depth analyses of different post-2012 regimes that had been proposed to date. The environmental community's view on the future targets was also presented. The second day focused on the current status and challenges of policy implementation in key industrialized countries. The conference was intended to provide vital information for policymakers, experts and the general public in considering long-term international climate policies.

  16. Internal and external variability in regional simulations of the Iberian Peninsula climate over the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Gómez-Navarro

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study we analyse the role of internal variability in regional climate simulations through a comparison of two regional paleoclimate simulations for the last millennium. They share the same external forcings and model configuration, differing only in the initial condition used to run the driving global model simulation. A comparison of these simulations allows us to study the role of internal variability in climate models at regional scales, and how it affects the long-term evolution of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. The results indicate that, although temperature is homogeneously sensitive to the effect of external forcings, the evolution of precipitation is more strongly governed by random and unpredictable internal dynamics. There are, however, some areas where the role of internal variability is lower than expected, allowing precipitation to respond to the external forcings, and we explore the underlying physical mechanisms responsible. We find that special attention should be paid when comparing the evolution of simulated precipitation with proxy reconstructions at regional scales. In particular, this study identifies areas, depending on the season, in which this comparison would be meaningful, but also other areas where good agreement between model simulations and reconstructions should not be expected even if both are perfect.

  17. Quantitative Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Carbon Transferred by International Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie; Moore, John; Yan, Qing; Song, Yi; Yang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Wenping; Chou, Jieming; Cui, Xuefeng; Yan, Xiaodong; Wei, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Yang, Shili; Tian, Di; Lin, Pengfei; Yang, Song; Wen, Zhiping; Lin, Hui; Chen, Min; Feng, Guolin; Jiang, Yundi; Zhu, Xian; Chen, Juan; Wei, Xin; Shi, Wen; Zhang, Zhiguo; Dong, Juan; Li, Yexin; Chen, Deliang

    2016-06-01

    Carbon transfer via international trade affects the spatial pattern of global carbon emissions by redistributing emissions related to production of goods and services. It has potential impacts on attribution of the responsibility of various countries for climate change and formulation of carbon-reduction policies. However, the effect of carbon transfer on climate change has not been quantified. Here, we present a quantitative estimate of climatic impacts of carbon transfer based on a simple CO2 Impulse Response Function and three Earth System Models. The results suggest that carbon transfer leads to a migration of CO2 by 0.1–3.9 ppm or 3–9% of the rise in the global atmospheric concentrations from developed countries to developing countries during 1990–2005 and potentially reduces the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol by up to 5.3%. However, the induced atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate changes (e.g., in temperature, ocean heat content, and sea-ice) are very small and lie within observed interannual variability. Given continuous growth of transferred carbon emissions and their proportion in global total carbon emissions, the climatic effect of traded carbon is likely to become more significant in the future, highlighting the need to consider carbon transfer in future climate negotiations.

  18. Developing Climate Change Literacy With the Humanities: A Narrative Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siperstein, S.

    2015-12-01

    Teaching the science and policy of climate change is necessary but insufficient for helping students to develop a robust climate literacy. Climate change educators must also teach students how to evaluate historical trends, to unpack the assumptions in shared cultural narratives, to grapple with ethical dilemmas, and more generally to traverse the turbulence of feeling that is a hallmark of living in a time of global climate chaos. In short, climate literacy must include the skills and strategies of the humanities, and specifically literary and cultural studies. After providing an overview of how literary and cultural studies scholars from around the world are developing innovative pedagogical methods for addressing climate change (drawing on the presenter's experience editing the forthcoming volume Teaching Climate Change in the Humanities), the presentation will then report on a specific Literary Genres course taught at the University of Oregon. The course, offered to undergraduate non-majors who entered the class with little or no knowledge of climate change, constituted a case study of action research into the transdisciplinary teaching of climate change. The presentation will thus draw on quantitative course assessments, student coursework, and the instructor's own experiences in arguing that three key narratives underpin the work we do as multidisciplinary climate change educators: narratives of observation, narratives of speculation, and narratives of conversion. That is, we guide students through the processes of witnessing climate change, imagining more just and sustainable futures, and by so doing, transforming themselves and their communities. In the particular Literary Genres course under consideration, students used the tools of literary and cultural studies first to analyze existing versions of these narratives and then to compose their own versions of these narratives based on their local communities and ecologies. In the context of multidisciplinary

  19. Internal flow management in a multi-zone climate control unit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Persis, C.; Jessen, Jan Jacob; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh

    2006-01-01

    of each zone is strongly affected by those in the neighbor zones. We discuss a control strategy which, by acting on the heating and ventilation devices of the overall system, is able to achieve the control task while efficiently managing the internal flow. It is pointed out that the controller is hybrid......In this contribution, we examine a dynamic model describing the evolution of internal climate conditions in a closed environment partitioned into zones for which different climate conditions must be guaranteed. The zones are not separated, large air masses are exchanged among them, and the behavior...... and decentralized. An additional feature of the controller is that it takes on values in a finite set. The possible implementation in a networked environment is briefly discussed....

  20. The Contribution of Internal and Model Variabilities to the Uncertainty in CMIP5 Decadal Climate Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Strobach, Ehud

    2015-01-01

    Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal experiments, we quantified the total uncertainty associated with these predictions and the relative importance of each source. Annual and monthly averages of the surface temperature and wind components were considered. We show that different definitions of the anomaly results in different conclusions regarding the variance of the ensemble members. However, some features of the uncertainty are common to all the measures we considered. We found that over decadal time scales, there is no considerable increase in the uncertainty with time. The model variability is more sensitive to the annual cycle than the internal variability. This, in turn, results in a maximal uncertainty during the winter in the northern hemisphere. The uncertainty of the surface temperature prediction is dom...

  1. The Effect of Membership Rules and Voting Schemes on the Success of International Climate Agreements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finus, M. [Department of Economics Institute of Economic Theory, Hagen University, Hagen (Germany); Altamirano-Cabrera, Juan-Carlos; Van Ierland, E. [Department of Social Sciences Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2003-11-01

    We empirically test the role of membership rules and voting schemes for climate change coalitions with the STAbility of COalitions model (STACO). The model comprises twelve world regions and captures long-run effects of greenhouse gas accumulation. We apply three stability concepts that capture the notion of open membership and exclusive membership with majority and unanimity voting. We show that exclusive membership leads to superior outcomes than open membership and that unanimity voting is preferable to majority voting in welfare and environmental terms. Our results suggest restricting membership in future international environmental agreements and they provide a rationale for unanimity voting as applied in many international organizations.

  2. A Rational Approach to Ring Flexibility in Internal Coordinate Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Mazur, A K

    1998-01-01

    Internal coordinate molecular dynamics (ICMD) is an efficient method for studying biopolymers, but it is readily applicable only to molecules with tree topologies, that is with no internal flexible rings. Common examples violating this condition are prolines and loops closed by S-S bridges in proteins. The most important such case, however, is nucleic acids because the flexibility of the furanose rings always plays an essential role in conformational transitions both in DNA and RNA. There are a few long-known theoretical approaches to this problem, but, in practice, rings with fixed bond lengths are closed by adding appropriate harmonic distance restraints, which is not always acceptable especially in dynamics. This paper tries to overcome this handicap of ICMD and proposes a rational strategy which results in practical numerical algorithms. It gives a unified analytical treatment which shows that this problem is very close to the difficulties encountered by the method of constraints in Cartesian coordinate d...

  3. EU and international policies for hydrometeorological risks:Operational aspects and link to climate action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Philippe QUEVAUVILLER; Marco GEMMER

    2015-01-01

    Changes in hydrometeorological characteristics and risks have been observed and are projected to increase under climate change. These considerations are scientifically well studied and led to the development of a complex policy framework for adaptation and mitigation for hydrometeorological risks. Awareness for policy actions is growing worldwide but no legal framework is in place to tackle climate change impacts on water at a global scale. With the example of international frameworks and the legislation on EU-level, this article elaborates that hydrometeorological risks are not considered in the framework of one single policy. However, various policy instruments are directly or indirectly considering these risks at different operational levels. It is discussed that a tailor-made framework for hydrometeorological risks would improve coordination at international or national level. A major drawback for a single operational framework is that hydrometeorological risks are scientifically tackled in two large communities:the disaster risk reduction community and the climate change adaptation community, both of which are bound to different research and operational funding budgets. In future, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation will need been seen as a complementary set of actions that requires collaboration.

  4. Forest Protection and Climate Change – Integrated Approach through Market Based Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cosmin BIRJARU

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently it is unfolding the United Nations International Year for Forests. This underlines the recognition of forests importance for the contemporary and future society and envisages raising awareness on several aspects to be considered by the variety of stakeholders for forestry. Meanwhile, the rate of deforestation halted its increase although remain high with more than ten million tropical forest being destroyed in each year. Deforestation economics is more than explanatory in this respect and supportive for urgent and effective policy action that could improve incentives for sustainable forest management instead of conversion or logging. REDD+ is among the latest and most challenging policy tools developed within a global approach addressing both climate change and forest protection in an integrated manner underpinned by the convergence of interests in these two major environmental areas. The paper envisages to explain the interdependencies and to highlight progresses made in implementation.

  5. The impact of international shipping on European air quality and climate forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Aardenne, J. [European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen (Denmark); Colette, A. [INERIS (France); Degraeuwe, B.; de Vlieger, I. [VITO (Belgium); Hammingh, P. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Netherlands); Viana, M. [CSIC (Spain)

    2013-03-15

    This EEA Technical report provides an overview on the state of knowledge on the impact of international shipping in European waters to air quality and climate change. Based on literature review and model assessment studies information is provided on past and future emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, monitoring of ship emissions, emission mitigation policies and impact on European air quality and radiative forcing. (Author)

  6. Megacities, air quality and climate: Seamless prediction approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Molina, Luisa T.; Gauss, Michael

    2016-04-01

    The rapid urbanization and growing number of megacities and urban complexes requires new types of research and services that make best use of science and available technology. With an increasing number of humans now living in urban sprawls, there are urgent needs of examining what the rising number of megacities means for air pollution, local climate and the effects these changes have on global climate. Such integrated studies and services should assist cities in facing hazards such as storm surge, flooding, heat waves, and air pollution episodes, especially in changing climates. While important advances have been made, new interdisciplinary research studies are needed to increase our understanding of the interactions between emissions, air quality, and regional and global climates. Studies need to address both basic and applied research and bridge the spatial and temporal scales connecting local emissions and air pollution and local weather, global atmospheric chemistry and climate. This paper reviews the current status of studies of the complex interactions between climate, air quality and megacities, and identifies the main gaps in our current knowledge as well as further research needs in this important field of research. Highlights • Climate, air quality and megacities interactions: gaps in knowledge, research needs. • Urban hazards: pollution episodes, storm surge, flooding, heat waves, public health. • Global climate change affects megacities' climate, environment and comfort. • Growing urbanization requires integrated weather, environment and climate monitoring systems. • New generation of multi-scale models and seamless integrated urban services are needed. Reference Baklanov, A., L.T. Molina, M. Gauss (2016) Megacities, air quality and climate. Atmospheric Environment, 126: 235-249. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.11.059

  7. Chaotic Attractor Crisis and Climate Sensitivity: a Transfer Operator Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tantet, A.; Lucarini, V.; Lunkeit, F.; Dijkstra, H. A.

    2015-12-01

    The rough response to a smooth parameter change of some non-chaotic climate models, such as the warm to snowball-Earth transition in energy balance models due to the ice-albedo feedback, can be studied in the framework of bifurcation theory, in particular by analysing the Lyapunov spectrum of fixed points or periodic orbits. However, bifurcation theory is of little help to study the destruction of a chaotic attractor which can occur in high-dimensional General Circulation Models (GCM). Yet, one would expect critical slowing down to occur before the crisis, since, as the system becomes susceptible to the physical instability mechanism responsible for the crisis, it turns out to be less and less resilient to exogenous perturbations and to spontaneous fluctuations due to other types of instabilities on the attractor. The statistical physics framework, extended to nonequilibrium systems, is particularly well suited for the study of global properties of chaotic and stochastic systems. In particular, the semigroup of transfer operators governs the evolution of distributions in phase space and its spectrum characterises both the relaxation rate of distributions to a statistical steady-state and the stability of this steady-state to perturbations. If critical slowing down indeed occurs in the approach to an attractor crisis, the gap in the spectrum of the semigroup of transfer operators is expected to shrink. We show that the chaotic attractor crisis due to the ice-albedo feedback and resulting in a transition from a warm to a snowball-Earth in the Planet Simulator (PlaSim), a GCM of intermediate complexity, is associated with critical slowing down, as observed by the slower decay of correlations before the crisis (cf. left panel). In addition, we demonstrate that this critical slowing down can be traced back to the shrinkage of the gap between the leading eigenvalues of coarse-grained approximations of the transfer operators and that these eigenvalues capture the

  8. PARAGON - An Integrated Approach for Characterizing Aerosol Climate Impacts and Environmental Interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diner, David J.; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Bosenberg, Jens; Braverman, Amy J.; Charlson, Robert J.; Collins, William D.; Davies, Roger; Holben, B. N.; Hostetler, Chris A.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Martonchik, John V.; Menzies, Robert T.; Miller, Mark A.; Ogren, J. A.; Penner, Joyce E.; Rasch, P; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Seinfeld, John H.; Stephens, Graeme L.; Torres, Omar; Travis, Larry D.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Yu, Bin

    2004-10-01

    Aerosols exert myriad influences on the Earth?s environment and climate and on human health. The complexity of aerosol-related processes requires that information gathered to improve our understanding of climate change must originate from multiple sources, and that effective strategies for data integration need to be established. Currently, the aerosol community lacks the necessary tools and infrastructure to reap maximum scientific benefit from a vast array of observed and modeled data. Spatial and temporal sampling differences among a diverse set of sensors, nonuniform data qualities, aerosol mesoscale variabilities, and difficulties in separating cloud effects are some of the challenges that need to be addressed. A sustained, long-term program also requires maintaining consistently well-understood accuracies as measurement approaches evolve and improve. Achieving a comprehensive understanding of how aerosol physical, chemical, and radiative processes impact the Earth system can only be achieved through a multidisciplinary, interagency, and international initiative capable of dealing with these issues. A systematic approach, capitalizing on modern measurement and modeling techniques, geospatial statistics methodologies, and high-performance information technologies can provide the necessary machinery to support this objective. We outline a framework for integrating and interpreting observations and models and establishing an accurate, consistent and cohesive long-term record, following a strategy whereby information and tools of progressively greater sophistication are incorporated as problems of increasing complexity are tackled. This concept is named the Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON). To encompass the breadth of effort required, we present a set of recommendations dealing with data interoperability, integration, synergy, summarization and mining, model evaluation, calibration and validation, augmentation of

  9. A Kantian approach to a sustainable development indicator for climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greaker, Mads; Stoknes, Per Espen; Alfsen, Knut H.; Ericson, Torgeir

    2012-11-01

    How can the informed citizen know if the government is implementing a good-enough climate change policy? Most developed democracies have their own set of indicators for sustainable development, including indicators for climate change. These include yearly national emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), global concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere and time series for global temperatures. However, without some kind of benchmark neither national emissions of GHGs nor global concentration of GHGs or temperatures, make it possible for the general public to evaluate the current climate policy of a nation state. In this paper we propose a benchmark for national climate policy based on a remaining Co2 budget allocated by egalitarian principles. Moreover, based on Kantian ethics we argue that this benchmark should be used as a sustainable development indicator for climate change. One way of interpreting Kantian ethics is to demand that each nation state should act as if a just global treaty on climate change were in place. We discuss possible important elements in a global treaty, and show how the different elements can be integrated in a forward-looking indicator of national climate policy.(auth)

  10. Preventing HIV transmission in Chinese internal migrants: a behavioral approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaona; Erasmus, Vicki; Sun, Xinying; Cai, Rui; Shi, Yuhui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik

    2014-01-01

    This study is a step towards a behavioral intervention to prevent HIV transmission among Chinese internal migrants. To explore important and changeable determinants of condom use and inspect effective and feasible methods to increase condom use for the target population, we conducted a three-round web-based Delphi study among a panel of 62 experts between October 2012 and March 2013. The panelists were purposely selected using a stepwise procedure to represent topic-related areas of expertise. The response rate per round ranges from 21% to 81%. The panelists identified 19 possible determinants of condom use and reported 16 intervention methods they considered successful. They agreed that attitude towards condom use was the most important and changeable determinant, while applying behavioral theory, increasing sexual education and condom access, performing worksite health promotion, detecting risk factors, and working closely with relevant organizations and the government were effective and feasible methods to increase condom use among internal migrants in China. In conclusion, results of this study highlight the importance of attitude in changing condom use and underscore the need to apply behavior theory and integrate multiple educational approaches for developing behavioral HIV prevention interventions targeting internal migrants in China.

  11. Preventing HIV Transmission in Chinese Internal Migrants: A Behavioral Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaona Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is a step towards a behavioral intervention to prevent HIV transmission among Chinese internal migrants. To explore important and changeable determinants of condom use and inspect effective and feasible methods to increase condom use for the target population, we conducted a three-round web-based Delphi study among a panel of 62 experts between October 2012 and March 2013. The panelists were purposely selected using a stepwise procedure to represent topic-related areas of expertise. The response rate per round ranges from 21% to 81%. The panelists identified 19 possible determinants of condom use and reported 16 intervention methods they considered successful. They agreed that attitude towards condom use was the most important and changeable determinant, while applying behavioral theory, increasing sexual education and condom access, performing worksite health promotion, detecting risk factors, and working closely with relevant organizations and the government were effective and feasible methods to increase condom use among internal migrants in China. In conclusion, results of this study highlight the importance of attitude in changing condom use and underscore the need to apply behavior theory and integrate multiple educational approaches for developing behavioral HIV prevention interventions targeting internal migrants in China.

  12. International Approach to Structuring Liquidity of Banking Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Makarenko Mykhaylo I.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is analysis of liquidity as a system category and study of essential transformation of liquidity from the purely banking notion to its wider interpretation as a financial system category on the basis of international approaches in this sphere. The article states that the liquidity notion is one of the fundamental ones in the theory of finance and banking business, but, until now, the issue of the nature of liquidity has not been completely developed yet. The article also states that the system nature of liquidity is expressed, in international practice, in availability of interaction of specific forms of its manifestation, such as the Central Bank liquidity (monetary basis of the economy, market liquidity (inter-bank market and asset market and financing liquidity (liquidity of institutional units. In the result of the study the article offers such interpretation of the banking system liquidity as a complex dynamic interaction of such elements as the Central Bank liquidity, liquidity of individual banking institutions and markets (both at national and international levels, which ensures execution of their obligations by banks, easy flow of financial resources and their efficient re-distribution between economic subjects, ensuring continuous general growth of economy.

  13. Partnering International Universities to Enhance Climate Literacy through Interdisciplinary, Cross-Cultural Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, L. A.; Polk, J.; Strenecky, B.

    2015-12-01

    The climate change phenomenon will present complex, far-reaching challenges and opportunities, which will require leaders well-versed in interdisciplinary learning and international understanding. In an effort to develop the next generation of future leaders prepared for these challenges and opportunities, faculty from Western Kentucky University (WKU) and the University of Akureyri (UNAK), Iceland partnered to co-teach a course in climate change science and communication in Iceland. Students from both Institutions participated in the course to further enhance the cross-learning opportunity presented to the students. The 11-day course stationed out of three cities in Iceland, including Reykjavík, Vik, and Akureyri, the Icelandic gateway to the Arctic. In addition to undertaking field experiences such as hiking on glaciers, exploring ice caves, and touring geothermal plants, the group also hosted forums to discuss climate change with members of the Icelandic community, and completed The $100 Solution™ service-learning projects. A culminating point of the study abroad experience was a presentation by the students to persons from the University of Akureyri and representatives from the neighboring Icelandic communities about what they had learned about climate change science and communication during their travels. Through this experience, students were able to share their knowledge, which in turn gave them a deeper understanding of the issues they were learning throughout the study abroad program. In short, the program combined interdisciplinary learning, service-learning, and international understanding toward the goal of preparing the leaders of tomorrow with the skills to address climate change challenges.

  14. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  15. International approaches to the hydraulic control of surface water runoff in mitigating flood and environmental risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ballard Bridget Woods

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares and contrasts a number of international approaches to the hydraulic control of surface water runoff from new development and redevelopment, known as sustainable drainage systems (SuDS or low impact development (LID. The paper provides a commentary on the progress and current status of national standards for SuDS in the UK to control the frequency, flow rate and volume of runoff from both frequent and extreme rainfall events, and the best practice design criteria presented in the revised UK CIRIA SuDS Manual, published in November 2015. The paper then compares these design criteria and standards with those developed and applied in China, USA, France and Germany and also looks at the drivers behind their development. The benefits of these different approaches are assessed in the context of flood risk mitigation, climate resilience and wider environmental protection objectives, including water quality, morphology and ecology. The paper also reviews the design approaches promoted by the new SuDS Manual and internationally for delivering additional benefits for urban spaces (such as recreation, visual character, education and economic growth through multi-functional urban design.

  16. Global climate change and international security. Report on a conference held at Argonne National Laboratory, May 8--10, 1991

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-12-31

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  17. Climate proofing of the Zuidplaspolder: a guiding model approach to climate adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, de M.A.M.; Goosen, H.; Steekelenburg, van M.G.N.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will have an impact on various sectors, such as housing, infrastructure, recreation and agriculture. Climate change may change spatial demands. For example, rising temperatures will increase the need for recreation areas, and areas could be assigned for water storage. There is a growi

  18. Climate Masters of Nebraska: An Innovative Action-Based Approach for Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Tapan B.; Bernadt, Tonya; Umphlett, Natalie

    2014-01-01

    Climate Masters of Nebraska is an innovative educational program that strategically trains community volunteers about climate change science and corresponding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in an interactive and action-based teaching environment. As a result of the program, 91% of participants indicated that they made informed changes in…

  19. Trust Management - Building Trust for International Cross Disciplinary Collaboration on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakley, K. V.; Gurney, R. J.

    2014-12-01

    Successful communication and collaboration entails mutual understanding, and transfer, of information. The risk of misunderstanding and/or miscommunication between collaborating groups is tackled in different ways around the globe; some are well documented whereas others may be unknown outside particular groups, whether defined geographically or by specialism. For example; in some countries legally binding contracts define the terms of collaboration. Some regions place greater emphasis on developing trust relationships, and sometimes an official agreement is implied, such as many electronic data transfers on the web. International collaboration on climate change increasingly involves electronic data exchange (e.g. open access publications, shared documents, data repositories etc.) and with this increased reliance on electronic data a need has arisen for scientists to collaborate both internationally and cross-disciplinarily particularly with information technology and data management specialists. Trust of data and metadata on the internet (e.g. privacy, legitimacy etc.) varies, possibly due to a lack of internationally agreed standards for data governance and management, leaving many national, regional and institutional practices tailored to the needs of that group only. It is proposed that building trust relationships between cross-disciplinary and international groups could help facilitate further communication, understanding and benefits from the relationship, while still maintaining independence as separate groups. Complex international cross-disciplinary group relationship dynamics are not easily mapped and producing a set of trust building rules that can be applied to any current and future collaboration with equal validity may be unfeasible. An alternative to such a set of rules may be found in a Trust Manager, whose role is to improve mutually beneficial knowledge exchange between groups, build trust and increase future collaborative potential. This

  20. A regional approach to climate adaptation in the Nile Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butts, Michael B.; Buontempo, Carlo; Lørup, Jens K.; Williams, Karina; Mathison, Camilla; Jessen, Oluf Z.; Riegels, Niels D.; Glennie, Paul; McSweeney, Carol; Wilson, Mark; Jones, Richard; Seid, Abdulkarim H.

    2016-10-01

    The Nile Basin is one of the most important shared basins in Africa. Managing and developing the water resources within the basin must not only address different water uses but also the trade-off between developments upstream and water use downstream, often between different countries. Furthermore, decision-makers in the region need to evaluate and implement climate adaptation measures. Previous work has shown that the Nile flows can be highly sensitive to climate change and that there is considerable uncertainty in climate projections in the region with no clear consensus as to the direction of change. Modelling current and future changes in river runoff must address a number of challenges; including the large size of the basin, the relative scarcity of data, and the corresponding dramatic variety of climatic conditions and diversity in hydrological characteristics. In this paper, we present a methodology, to support climate adaptation on a regional scale, for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods, droughts and water scarcity within the basin.

  1. Research on the Relationship between Internal Communication Climate and Job Satisfaction and Employee Loyalty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara Sušanj Šulentić

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Successful organizations dedicate considerable attention to the quality of internal communications, which have a proven potential to contribute to creating competitive advantages in an increasingly demanding market. Internal communications have become a crucial prerequisite in creating new value to ensure customer and employee satisfaction. The purpose of this paper was to establish possible correlations between certain factors of the communication climate, and employee satisfaction and loyalty. The data used in this paper were collected by means of an employee survey, conducted in a pharmaceutical company immediately after it had undergone strategic changes, resulting from its new ownership structure and organizational culture. The factor analysis indicates five key factors of the communication climate: the availability of information about corporate activities as perceived by employees; satisfaction with co-workers; perceived job stability; perceived job importance within the organization and a perceived sense of injustice. The regression analysis confirmed a positive correlation between a good communication climate and the employee satisfaction and loyalty during strategic organizational changes. This is an important piece of information for all those having doubts about how to communicate strategic changes.

  2. A big data approach for climate change indicators processing in the CLIP-C project

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Anca, Alessandro; Conte, Laura; Palazzo, Cosimo; Fiore, Sandro; Aloisio, Giovanni

    2016-04-01

    Defining and implementing processing chains with multiple (e.g. tens or hundreds of) data analytics operators can be a real challenge in many practical scientific use cases such as climate change indicators. This is usually done via scripts (e.g. bash) on the client side and requires climate scientists to take care of, implement and replicate workflow-like control logic aspects (which may be error-prone too) in their scripts, along with the expected application-level part. Moreover, the big amount of data and the strong I/O demand pose additional challenges related to the performance. In this regard, production-level tools for climate data analysis are mostly sequential and there is a lack of big data analytics solutions implementing fine-grain data parallelism or adopting stronger parallel I/O strategies, data locality, workflow optimization, etc. High-level solutions leveraging on workflow-enabled big data analytics frameworks for eScience could help scientists in defining and implementing the workflows related to their experiments by exploiting a more declarative, efficient and powerful approach. This talk will start introducing the main needs and challenges regarding big data analytics workflow management for eScience and will then provide some insights about the implementation of some real use cases related to some climate change indicators on large datasets produced in the context of the CLIP-C project - a EU FP7 project aiming at providing access to climate information of direct relevance to a wide variety of users, from scientists to policy makers and private sector decision makers. All the proposed use cases have been implemented exploiting the Ophidia big data analytics framework. The software stack includes an internal workflow management system, which coordinates, orchestrates, and optimises the execution of multiple scientific data analytics and visualization tasks. Real-time workflow monitoring execution is also supported through a graphical user

  3. Connecting climate social adaptation and land use change in internationally adjoining protected areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Rodríguez Solórzano

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of climate adaptation strategies to address social problems derived from climate change is pressing. Yet, in addition to providing means to minimise the impact of climate variability and change on livelihoods, climate adaptation strategies might exacerbate environmental change and cause negative social impacts. Systematic research has not addressed the impacts of adaptation on environmental change. In this paper, I focus on land use change as a specific type of environmental change and on three adaptation strategies: diversification, pooling and out-migration. I analyse the influence of adaptation strategies on land use change by drawing on interviews with the managers of 56 internationally adjoining protected areas in 18 countries in the Americas. The findings indicate that the impact of adaptation depends on the adaptation strategy people choose. When people out-migrate, land use change increases. Community elite control for decision-making, shorter distances between communities and markets and more communities in and around the protected areas also increase land use change. These findings show that adaptation can be a driver of further environmental change, and thus further study is needed to understand the likely impacts of adaptation on conservation.

  4. Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt : A Ricardian Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Eid, Helmy M.; El-Marsafawy, Samia M.; Ouda, Samiha A.

    2007-01-01

    This study employed the Ricardian approach to measure the economic impacts of climate change on farm net revenue in Egypt. Farm net revenue were regressed against climate, soil, socioeconomic and hydrological variables to determine which factors influence the variability of farm net revenues. 900 households from 20 governorates were interviewed. The standard Ricardian model was applied, in...

  5. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies.

  6. The PICS Climate Insights 101 Courses: A Visual Approach to Learning About Climate Science, Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, T. F.; Zwiers, F. W.; Breen, C.; Murdock, T. Q.

    2014-12-01

    The Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) has now made available online three free, peer-reviewed, unique animated short courses in a series entitled "Climate Insights 101" that respectively address basic climate science, carbon-emissions mitigation approaches and opportunities, and adaptation. The courses are suitable for students of all ages, and use professionally narrated animations designed to hold a viewer's attention. Multiple issues are covered, including complex concerns like the construction of general circulation models, carbon pricing schemes in various countries, and adaptation approaches in the face of extreme weather events. Clips will be shown in the presentation. The first course (Climate Science Basics) has now been seen by over two hundred thousand individuals in over 80 countries, despite being offered in English only. Each course takes about two hours to work through, and in recognizing that that duration might pose an attention barrier to some students, PICS selected a number of short clips from the climate-science course and posted them as independent snippets on YouTube. A companion series of YouTube videos entitled, "Clear The Air", was created to confront the major global-warming denier myths. But a major challenge remains: despite numerous efforts to promote the availability of the free courses and the shorter YouTube pieces, they have yet to become widely known. Strategies to overcome that constraint will be discussed.

  7. Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

    2016-04-01

    In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  8. Research on international terrorism: orthodox approach or critical study?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Aboboaie

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the epistemological, ontological, methodological and ethical challenges that the researchers of the new current of critical study on terrorism, put to the traditional research on this phenomenon. The study begins with the presentation of the orthodox theory of terrorism and its weaknesses, as they are captured by the critical theory that stresses the need for a new research agenda. Further, we intend to present "solutions" made by the researchers of critical study on terrorism and "commitments" that they take to the discipline. Finally, this study recognizes that each approach has valuable ideas and the controversies presented are nothing but a source of progress in the real and profound knowledge of the phenomenon of international terrorism.

  9. IDEAhaus: A Modular Approach to Climate Resilient UK Housing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greg Keeffe

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the result of a project to develop climate adaptation design strategies funded by the UK’s Technology Strategy Board. The aim of the project was to look at the threats and opportunities presented by industrialized and house-building techniques in the light of predicted future increases in flooding and overheating due to anthropogenic climate change. The paper shows that the thermal performance of houses built to the current UK Building Regulations is not adequate to cope with changing weather patterns, and in light of this, develops a detailed design for a new house: one that is industrially produced and climatically resilient, but affordable. This detailed concept IDEAhaus of a modular house is not only flood-proof to a water depth of 750 mm, but also is designed to utilize passive cooling, which dramatically reduces the amount of overheating, both now and in the future.

  10. Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, D; Thomas, S M; Neteler, M; Tjaden, N B; Beierkuhnlein, C

    2014-02-13

    The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest. Several studies have tried to detect the potential habitats for this species, but differing data sources and modelling approaches must be considered when interpreting the findings. Here, various modelling methodologies are compared with special emphasis on model set-up and study design. Basic approaches and model algorithms for the projection of spatio-temporal trends within the 21st century differ substantially. Applied methods range from mechanistic models (e.g. overlay of climatic constraints based on geographic information systems or rather process-based approaches) to correlative niche models. We conclude that spatial characteristics such as introduction gateways and dispersal pathways need to be considered. Laboratory experiments addressing the climatic constraints of the mosquito are required for improved modelling results. However, the main source of uncertainty remains the insufficient knowledge about the species' ability to adapt to novel environments.

  11. Assessing the Campus's Ethical Climate: A Multidimensional Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banning, James H.

    1997-01-01

    Develops a general framework and matrix for assessing ethical behavior from a campus perspective and illustrates how visual anthropology can be used to implement the matrix. Claims that indices, such as photographs on bulletin boards, architecture, graffiti, and other environmental elements, can portray a campus's ethical climate. (RJM)

  12. First Steps Toward a Quality of Climate Finance Scorecard (QUODA-CF): Creating a Comparative Index to Assess International Climate Finance Contributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sierra, Katherine; Roberts, Timmons; de Nevers, Michele; Langley, Claire; Smith, Cory

    2013-06-15

    Are climate finance contributor countries, multilateral aid agencies and specialized funds using widely accepted best practices in foreign assistance? How is it possible to measure and compare international climate finance contributions when there are as yet no established metrics or agreed definitions of the quality of climate finance? As a subjective metric, quality can mean different things to different stakeholders, while of donor countries, recipients and institutional actors may place quality across a broad spectrum of objectives. This subjectivity makes the assessment of the quality of climate finance contributions a useful and necessary exercise, but one that has many challenges. This work seeks to enhance the development of common definitions and metrics of the quality of climate finance, to understand what we can about those areas where climate finance information is available and shine a light on the areas where there is a severe dearth of data. Allowing for comparisons of the use of best practices across funding institutions in the climate sector could begin a process of benchmarking performance, fostering learning across institutions and driving improvements when incorporated in internal evaluation protocols of those institutions. In the medium term, this kind of benchmarking and transparency could support fundraising in contributor countries and help build trust with recipient countries. As a feasibility study, this paper attempts to outline the importance of assessing international climate finance contributions while describing the difficulties in arriving at universally agreed measurements and indicators for assessment. In many cases, data are neither readily available nor complete, and there is no consensus on what should be included. A number of indicators are proposed in this study as a starting point with which to analyze voluntary contributions, but in some cases their methodologies are not complete, and further research is required for a

  13. Climate change projections for Tamil Nadu, India: deriving high-resolution climate data by a downscaling approach using PRECIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bal, Prasanta Kumar; Ramachandran, A.; Geetha, R.; Bhaskaran, B.; Thirumurugan, P.; Indumathi, J.; Jayanthi, N.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, we present regional climate change projections for the Tamil Nadu state of India, simulated by the Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model. The model is run at 25 km horizontal resolution driven by lateral boundary conditions generated by a perturbed physical ensemble of 17 simulations produced by a version of Hadley Centre coupled climate model, known as HadCM3Q under A1B scenario. The large scale features of these 17 simulations were evaluated for the target region to choose lateral boundary conditions from six members that represent a range of climate variations over the study region. The regional climate, known as PRECIS, was then run 130 years from 1970. The analyses primarily focus on maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall over the region. For the Tamil Nadu as a whole, the projections of maximum temperature show an increase of 1.0, 2.2 and 3.1 °C for the periods 2020s (2005-2035), 2050s (2035-2065) and 2080s (2065-2095), respectively, with respect to baseline period (1970-2000). Similarly, the projections of minimum temperature show an increase of 1.1, 2.4 and 3.5 °C, respectively. This increasing trend is statistically significant (Mann-Kendall trend test). The annual rainfall projections for the same periods indicate a general decrease in rainfall of about 2-7, 1-4 and 4-9 %, respectively. However, significant exceptions are noticed over some pockets of western hilly areas and high rainfall areas where increases in rainfall are seen. There are also indications of increasing heavy rainfall events during the northeast monsoon season and a slight decrease during the southwest monsoon season. Such an approach of using climate models may maximize the utility of high-resolution climate change information for impact-adaptation-vulnerability assessments.

  14. Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Rivington

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production and the availability of clean water, hence threatening human health, livelihoods and ultimately societal stability. Degradation also increases the vulnerability of populations to the consequences of natural disasters and climate change impacts. With 10 million people dying from hunger each year, the linkages between ecosystems and food security are important to recognize. Though we all depend on ecosystems for our food and water, about seventy per cent of the estimated 1.1 billion people in poverty around the world live in rural areas and depend directly on the productivity of ecosystems for their livelihoods. Healthy ecosystems provide a diverse range of food sources and support entire agricultural systems, but their value to food security and sustainable livelihoods are often undervalued or ignored. There is an urgent need for increased financial investment for integrating ecosystem management with food security and poverty alleviation priorities. As the world’s leaders worked towards a new international climate change agenda in Cancun, Mexico, 29 November–10 December 2010 (UNFCCC COP16, it was clear that without a deep and decisive post-2012 agreement and major concerted effort to reduce the food crisis, the Millennium Development Goals will not be attained. Political commitment at the highest level will be needed to raise the profile of ecosystems on the global food agenda. It is recommended that full recognition and promotion be given of the linkages

  15. Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

  16. An academic approach to climate change emergency preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trask, Jeffrey A

    To achieve effective emergency management and business continuity, all hazards should be considered during the planning and preparedness process. In recent years, several new hazards have attracted the attention of Emergency Management and Business Continuity practitioners. Climate change presents a unique challenge. Practitioners must rely on historical data combined with scientific projections to guide their planning and preparedness efforts. This article examines how an academic institution's emergency management programme can plan successfully for this hazard by focusing on best practices in the area of building cross-departmental and cross-jurisdictional relationships. Examples of scientific data related to the hazard of climate change will be presented along with the latest guidance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency encouraging the planning for future hazards. The article presents a functional exercise in which this hazard was prominently featured, and presents testimony from subject matter experts. Recommendations for emergency management and business continuity programmes are so provided.

  17. Quantifying internally generated and externally forced climate signals at regional scales in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Kewei; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

    2015-11-01

    The Earth's climate evolves because of both internal variability and external forcings. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, here we quantify the ratio of externally forced variance to total variance on interannual and longer time scales for regional surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level, which depends on the relative strength of externally forced signal compared to internal variability. The highest ratios are found in tropical areas for SAT but at high latitudes for sea level over the historical period when ocean dynamics and global mean thermosteric contributions are considered. Averaged globally, the ratios over a fixed time interval (e.g., 30 years) are projected to increase during the 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). In contrast, under two mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5), the ratio declines sharply by the end of the 21st century for SAT, but only declines slightly or stabilizes for sea level, indicating a slower response of sea level to climate mitigation.

  18. Assessing confidence in management adaptation approaches for climate-sensitive ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, J. M.; Julius, S. H.; Weaver, C. P.

    2012-03-01

    A number of options are available for adapting ecosystem management to improve resilience in the face of climatic changes. However, uncertainty exists as to the effectiveness of these options. A report prepared for the US Climate Change Science Program reviewed adaptation options for a range of federally managed systems in the United States. The report included a qualitative uncertainty analysis of conceptual approaches to adaptation derived from the review. The approaches included reducing anthropogenic stressors, protecting key ecosystem features, maintaining representation, replicating, restoring, identifying refugia and relocating organisms. The results showed that the expert teams had the greatest scientific confidence in adaptation options that reduce anthropogenic stresses. Confidence in other approaches was lower because of gaps in understanding of ecosystem function, climate change impacts on ecosystems, and management effectiveness. This letter discusses insights gained from the confidence exercise and proposes strategies for improving future assessments of confidence for management adaptations to climate change.

  19. Climate Change and Economic Development: A Pragmatic Approach (Invited Lecture)

    OpenAIRE

    John Gowdy; Aneel Salman

    2007-01-01

    Two major problems promise to dominate economic and social policy during the twentyfirst century. These are global climate change and the growing gap between the rich and the poor. Economists are facing these issues at a time when many of the standard tools of economic analysis for example, competitive general equilibrium and the theoretical system that supports it have fallen into disfavour in analysing global issues involving uncertainty and irreversibility. This is both a challenge and an ...

  20. Climate Justice: A Constitutional Approach to Unify the Lex Specialis Principles of International Climate Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorp, Teresa

    2012-01-01

    Legal principles legitimise ubiquitous social values. They make certain social norms lawful and legitimate. Legal principles may act as governing vectors. They may give effect to a unified and legitimate constitutional framework insofar as a constitution unifies the fundamental principles on which a

  1. An innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education: Sustainability in the workplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Z. P.

    2009-04-01

    Climate change and climate science are a core component of environment-related degree programmes, but there are many programmes, for example business studies, that have clear linkages to climate change and sustainability issues which often have no or limited coverage of the subject. Although an in-depth coverage of climate science is not directly applicable to all programmes of study, the subject of climate change is of great relevance to all of society. Graduates from the higher education system are often viewed as society's ‘future leaders', hence it can be argued that it is important that all graduates are conversant in the issues of climate change and strategies for moving towards a sustainable future. Rather than an in depth understanding of climate science it may be more important that a wider range of students are educated in strategies for positive action. One aspect of climate change education that may be missing, including in programmes where climate change is a core topic, is practical strategies, skills and knowledge for reducing our impact on the climate system. This presentation outlines an innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education which focuses on the strategies for moving towards sustainability, but which is supported by climate science understanding taught within this context. Students gain knowledge and understanding of the motivations and strategies for businesses to improve their environmental performance, and develop skills in identifying areas of environmental improvement and recommending actions for change. These skills will allow students to drive positive change in their future careers. Such courses are relevant to students of all disciplines and can give the opportunity to students for whom climate change education is not a core part of their programme, to gain greater understanding of the issues and an awareness of practical changes that can be made at all levels to move towards a more sustainable society.

  2. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  3. International CO2 Stabilization Scenarios with Less-Than-Perfect “Where” and “When” Flexibility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Wise, Marshall A.; Lurz, Joshua P.

    2007-10-01

    This technical paper discusses several of the cost and emissions issues surrounding international climate change policy structures in which countries take heterogenous approaches to climate change mitigation.

  4. Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.

    2009-01-01

    How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this

  5. International market selection and subsidiary performance : A neural network approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouthers, L.E.; Wilkinson, T.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Brouthers, K.D.

    2009-01-01

    How should multinational enterprises (MNEs) select international markets? We develop a model of international market selection that adds firm-specific advantages and transaction cost considerations to previously explored target market factors based on Dunning's Eclectic Framework. Results obtained u

  6. Integrated management of land and water resources based on a collective approach to fragmented international conventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, Alfred M

    2003-12-29

    Interlinked crises of land degradation, food security, ecosystem decline, water quality and water flow depletion stand in the way of poverty reduction and sustainable development. These crises are made worse by increased fluctuations in climatic regimes. Single-purpose international conventions address these crises in a piecemeal, sectoral fashion and may not meet their objectives without greater attention to policy, legal, and institutional reforms related to: (i) balancing competing uses of land and water resources within hydrologic units; (ii) adopting integrated approaches to management; and (iii) establishing effective governance institutions for adaptive management within transboundary basins. This paper describes this global challenge and argues that peace, stability and security are all at stake when integrated approaches are not used. The paper presents encouraging results from a decade of transboundary water projects supported by the Global Environment Facility in developing countries that test practical applications of processes for facilitating reforms related to land and water that are underpinned by science-based approaches. Case studies of using these participative processes are described that collectively assist in the transition to integrated management. A new imperative for incorporating interlinkages among food, water, and environment security at the basin level is identified.

  7. Overview of the risk management approach to adaptation to climate change in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noble, D.; Bruce, J.; Egener, M. [Global Change Strategies International, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2005-03-15

    Climate change poses risks related to frequent and extreme weather events, changes in water availability and changes in the performance of infrastructure systems. Risk management offers a decision-making framework to assist in the selection of optimal or cost-effective strategies using a systematic public process. Risks related to climate change are a new type of risk and are increasingly of concern for governments and citizens around the world. An introduction to risk-based approaches to climate change adaptation decision-making in Canada was presented in this paper. Steps in the risk management process were presented. Risk management approaches from various countries were reviewed, including the Canadian Standards Association's (CSA) national risk management guideline; the Government of Canada's Integrated Risk Management Framework; the Caribbean Risk Management Guideline; World Bank risk management strategies for adaptation to climate change; and the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program. Details of a study conducted by the United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs to explore the implications of climate change were also presented. Vulnerabilities of response mechanisms to climate change and the interrelations of public systems were reviewed. Issues concerning infrastructure renewal and development were examined, as well as emergency planning and management strategies. It was concluded that the development of training materials and tools for decision-makers in Canada is needed. A climate change risk management planning guidebook was proposed. refs., tabs., figs.

  8. The Large Marine Ecosystem Approach for 21st Century Ocean Health and International Sustainable Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honey, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    The global coastal ocean and watersheds are divided into 66 Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), which encompass regions from river basins, estuaries, and coasts to the seaward boundaries of continental shelves and margins of major currents. Approximately 80% of global fisheries catch comes from LME waters. Ecosystem goods and services from LMEs contribute an estimated US 18-25 trillion dollars annually to the global economy in market and non-market value. The critical importance of these large-scale systems, however, is threatened by human populations and pressures, including climate change. Fortunately, there is pragmatic reason for optimism. Interdisciplinary frameworks exist, such as the Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) approach for adaptive management that can integrate both nature-centric and human-centric views into ecosystem monitoring, assessment, and adaptive management practices for long-term sustainability. Originally proposed almost 30 years ago, the LME approach rests on five modules are: (i) productivity, (ii) fish and fisheries, (iii) pollution and ecosystem health, (iv) socioeconomics, and (v) governance for iterative adaptive management at a large, international scale of 200,000 km2 or greater. The Global Environment Facility (GEF), World Bank, and United Nations agencies recognize and support the LME approach—as evidenced by over 3.15 billion in financial assistance to date for LME projects. This year of 2014 is an exciting milestone in LME history, after 20 years of the United Nations and GEF organizations adopting LMEs as a unit for ecosystem-based approaches to management. The LME approach, however, is not perfect. Nor is it immutable. Similar to the adaptive management framework it propones, the LME approach itself must adapt to new and emerging 21st Century technologies, science, and realities. The LME approach must further consider socioeconomics and governance. Within the socioeconomics module alone, several trillion-dollar opportunities exist

  9. Measurement of Key Polar Climate Variables in IPY4 Through Deployment of an International Fleet of Robotic Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carsey, F. D.; Behar, A. E.; Holt, B. M.

    2003-12-01

    At the present time sea ice thickness distribution is understood to be a crucial variable that is descriptive of polar climate in a complex, integrative sense such that its determination over time is a significant priority. As it happens, the sea ice distribution is also a challenging determination given ideal circumstances of platforms and instrumentation, and these circumstances are not reliably extant. The standard approaches to sea ice information, ice-capable ships and satellites, do not at this time provide a workable strategy; ships cannot supply the coverage and satellites have not been equipped with proper instrumentation, which is in fact just now entering development phase. A strategy with promise for obtaining sea ice thickness in addition to other significant surface variables is the deployment of instrumented robotic vehicles; a particularly useful vehicle design is the Inflatable Rover under consideration for use on Mars. These vehicles can travel a 1-3 kilometers per hour powered by solar energy and can thus accomplish a major traverse in a 100-day deployment. The program we put forward calls for an international fleet of suitably designed rovers, each measuring useful variables relating to ice, snow, atmosphere, radiation, etc. In addition the rovers could collaborate in such tasks as monitoring each others activities, aiding in calibration and maintenance, and the like. Each rover could involve 2-3 co-investigators from different institutions and countries. Rover data would be satellite linked allowing K-12 monitoring of progress of the fleet. This IPY4 project integrates new technology into polar science, would engage the public and schoolchildren, could serve as a means of international cooperation, and all the while collects valuable climate change data. This work performed under contract to NASA.

  10. The Effectiveness of the Geospatial Curriculum Approach on Urban Middle-Level Students' Climate Change Understandings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodzin, Alec M.; Fu, Qiong

    2014-08-01

    Climate change science is a challenging topic for student learning. This quantitative study examined the effectiveness of a geospatial curriculum approach to promote climate change science understandings in an urban school district with eighth-grade students and investigated whether teacher- and student-level factors accounted for students' climate change knowledge achievement. The participants included 12 science teachers and 956 eighth-grade students. Data included a pre- and posttest climate change assessment measures for both teachers and students and a teacher measure of Geospatial Science-Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge. Paired-sample t tests revealed statistically significant gains from pretest to posttest on their climate change knowledge ( p < .001; effect sizes being large on multiple-choice items and medium on the open-ended response assessment). Both ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression and 2-level hierarchical linear modeling found that students' initial climate change knowledge and gender were significant predictors for students' posttest scores, p < .05. Students' pretest scores were the strongest significant predictor of the posttest scores, p < .001. Neither the teachers' climate change knowledge nor their Geospatial Science-Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge had significant association with the students' posttest scores. Teaching years was a significant predictor for students' posttest scores in OLS regression ( p < .001). The findings provide support that a geospatial curriculum approach is an effective science curriculum approach for learners in urban middle-level education.

  11. Using an Integrated Approach to Supporting Climate Change Literacy for Pre-Service Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, H. R.; Mattox, S.; Llerandi-Román, P. A.; Dobson, C.

    2014-12-01

    Educating future Americans has long been a debate; with the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) now being adopted, climate literacy has become a more dominant discussion in both the classroom and in our society where climate education has often been non-existent or dismal at best. With these new education standards climate literacy is now fundamental to science education, this means understanding climate needs to begin with those headed into the classroom with these future Americans. These educators are expected to be skilled and confident in all subject areas, including science, where they might receive less training. To address this challenge, we have focused on an interdisciplinary approach to climate literacy, which is facilitated through cross-cutting concepts in both Earth and life sciences and parallels NGSS standards. We used the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication to gauge our student's strengths and weaknesses and compare them to the general public's understanding of climate change and complex Earth processes, such as beliefs about climate change, understanding the greenhouse effect, weather versus climate, climate change past and present, impacts and solutions. After a semester of this interdisciplinary course our students felt 95% confident that they are informed about global climate change as compared to 62% of Americans that were surveyed. Our students could define and describe greenhouse effect and 82% of them could classify greenhouse gases as compared to 66% and 45% of Americans respectively. While these non-science, education students were generally more knowledgeable about climate change, the areas where they did not significantly outperform the general public allowed us to refocus our course to aid them in understanding this complex issue where our hopes are that they will be prepared to teach science in their future classroom which will allow their students to be competitive in today's rapidly evolving global economy.

  12. Derivation of internationally comparable reduction targets for the Annex-I countries of the climate convention. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walz, R.; Landwehr, M.; Mannsbart, W.; Schoen, M.

    1997-05-01

    Since the start of international negotiations on the climate in 1991, the Federal Republic of Germany has supported the process of agreeing on binding limits especially for CO{sub 2} emissions among the industrialised countries under international law, after corresponding commitments had already been agreed upon for CFC emissions. The formation of the Adhoc group Berlin Mandate (AGBM) launched a process of negotiation which aimed to lead to the adoption of a protocol with, among other things, quantified limits and reduction targets for the Annex-I countries; this objective was reconfirmed at the Second Conference of Member States in July '96 in Geneva. The work carried out is documented in this final report. Chapter 2 deals with the fundamental principles of target differentiation. Justifications and possible correction factors are presented and methodological approaches to target differentiation developed. In the subsequent chapters, example calculations are made for different groups of countries (EU, OECD, OECD with selected Eastern European countries). Three different methods of target differentiation are employed: correction factors without sectoral differentiation (Chapter 3), correction factors with sectoral differentiation (Chapter 4) and a division into reduction clusters (Chapter 5). A summary of the results and the conclusions to be drawn can be found in Chapter 6 of this final report. The data collected during the study and the individual results of the example calculations are shown in the Appendices. (orig.)

  13. A novel approach to improving writing skills: ClimateSnack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, Mathew

    2014-05-01

    Writing is a huge part of any research career. We can think of writing as a research tool we find in any research laboratory. Much like any research tool, we have to understand how to calibrate, adjust and apply it in order to achieve the very best experimental outcomes. We can learn how to use this tool with advice from writing workshops, online writing courses, books and so on. Unfortunately, when it comes to working with this tool, we often have to do it alone. But, like in any laboratory, the most rewarding way to learn and to achieve the best results is to interact with others. Through this interaction, we can improve our writing and remain motivated. ClimateSnack aims to help early career scientists understand how they can use writing as an effective research tool. We encourage the formation of writing groups at different universities and institutes. Members write short popular science articles and read them aloud at group meetings. The group uses knowledge from different learning resources to discuss the articles and give feedback. The author then improves their writing further before publishing on the ClimateSnack website. If early-career scientists can successfully increase their control of writing, they will more likely write memorable high-impact scientific articles, and confidently communicate their science via varied media to varied audiences.

  14. Compound extremes in a changing climate - a Markov chain approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Mieruch, Sebastian; Schädler, Gerd; Kottmeier, Christoph

    2016-11-01

    Studies using climate models and observed trends indicate that extreme weather has changed and may continue to change in the future. The potential impact of extreme events such as heat waves or droughts depends not only on their number of occurrences but also on "how these extremes occur", i.e., the interplay and succession of the events. These quantities are quite unexplored, for past changes as well as for future changes and call for sophisticated methods of analysis. To address this issue, we use Markov chains for the analysis of the dynamics and succession of multivariate or compound extreme events. We apply the method to observational data (1951-2010) and an ensemble of regional climate simulations for central Europe (1971-2000, 2021-2050) for two types of compound extremes, heavy precipitation and cold in winter and hot and dry days in summer. We identify three regions in Europe, which turned out to be likely susceptible to a future change in the succession of heavy precipitation and cold in winter, including a region in southwestern France, northern Germany and in Russia around Moscow. A change in the succession of hot and dry days in summer can be expected for regions in Spain and Bulgaria. The susceptibility to a dynamic change of hot and dry extremes in the Russian region will probably decrease.

  15. Cold climate bioremediation : a comparison of various approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reimer, K.J.; Colden, M.; Francis, P.; Mauchan, J. [Royal Military Coll. of Canada, Kingston, ON (Canada); Mohn, W.W. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada); Poland, J.S. [Queen' s Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    Bioremediation is a method commonly used to treat hydrocarbon contaminated soils in temperate climates. However, the method has received much less attention in cold and remote regions of Canada because of the low temperatures and lack of supporting infrastructure. Bioremediation methods based on biopiles and landfarms can be specifically adapted to cold and remote regions, and may offer a cost-effective solution to remediating areas that have frequent and significant fuel spills. Studies at many sites north of latitudes 65 degrees N have indicated the presence of cold-adapted psychrophilic organisms that can degrade hydrocarbons, particularly if aerated or augmented with fertilizers, native organisms, or bulking agents. The significance of natural attenuation in cold climates was examined. It was shown that temperature is the most critical limiting factor at such sites. The effectiveness of heated aeration systems in prolonging the biodegradation treatment was demonstrated at the CFS Alert site on the northern tip of Ellesmere Island. Simple aeration/insulation systems were used to decontaminate biopiles of soil at optimum temperatures for psychrophiles over a 12 month period. The ambient temperature during the treatment period was -45 degrees C. It was demonstrated that bioremediation is possible in the Arctic, particularly when assisted by nutrients. The treatment season can be extended by heating the biopiles. It was also noted that volatilization can account for a major portion of the hydrocarbon loss. 38 refs., 1 tab., 5 figs.

  16. The Wicked Problem of Climate Change: A New Approach Based on Social Mess and Fragmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiazhe Sun

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The 21st century has been the warmest period on record since 1880, making the problem of climate change a central issue in the global political arena. While most approaches to climate change emphasize setting and imposing thresholds for greenhouse gas emissions, this paper argues that the issue of climate change and its solutions should be viewed in a more dynamic and complex way, involving social messes and the fragmentation of industries and organizations. In this context, learning models can offer a starting point to understand the reasons why organizations engage in certain types of corporate environmental strategies with regard to climate change, and can help in the search for solutions to the problem of climate change.

  17. SLICEIT and TAHMO Partnerships: Students Local and International Collaboration for Climate and Environmental Monitoring, Technology Development, Education, Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aishlin, P. S.; Selker, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change understanding and impacts vary by community, yet the global nature of climate change requires international collaboration to address education, monitoring, adaptation and mitigation needs. We propose that effective climate change monitoring and education can be accomplished via student-led local and international community partnerships. By empowering students as community leaders in climate-environmental monitoring and education, as well as exploration of adaptation/mitigation needs, well-informed communities and young leadership are developed to support climate change science moving forward. Piloted 2013-2015, the SLICEIT1 program partnered with TAHMO2 to connect student leaders in North America, Europe and Africa. At the international level, schools in the U.S.A and Netherlands were partnered with schools in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda for science and cultural exchange. Each school was equipped with a climate or other environmental sensing system, real-time data publication and curricula for both formal and informal science, technology, engineering and math education and skill development. African counterparts in TAHMO's School-2-School program collect critically important data for enhanced on-the-ground monitoring of weather conditions in data-scarce regions of Africa. In Idaho, student designed, constructed and installed weather stations provide real time data for classroom and community use. Student-designed formal educational activities are disseminated to project partners, increasing hands-on technology education and peer-based learning. At the local level, schools are partnered with a local agency, research institute, nonprofit organization, industry and/or community partner that supplies a climate science expert mentor to SLICEIT program leaders and teachers. Mentor engagement is facilitated and secured by program components that directly benefit the mentor's organization and local community via climate/environment monitoring, student workforce

  18. GAIA - A New Approach To Decision Making on Climate Disruption Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Swartz, W. H.; Nix, M.; Strong, S. B.; Fountain, G. H.; Babin, S. M.; Pikas, C. K.; Parker, C. L.; Global Assimilation of InformationAction

    2011-12-01

    GAIA - the Global Assimilation of Information for Action program - provides a broadly extensible framework for enabling the development of a deeper understanding of the issues associated with climate disruption. The key notion of GAIA is that the global climate problem is so complex that a "system engineering" approach is needed in order to make it understandable. The key tenet of system engineering is to focus on requirements and to develop a cost-effective process for satisfying those requirements. To demonstrate this approach we focused first on the impact of climate disruption on public health. GAIA is described in some detail on our website (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu). Climate disruption is not just a scientific problem; one of the key issues that our community has is that of translating scientific results into knowledge that can be used to make informed decisions. In order to support decision makers we have to understand their issues and how to communicate with them. In this talk, we describe how we have built a community of interest that combines subject matter experts from diverse communities (public health, climate change, government, public policy, industry, etc) with policy makers and representatives from industry to develop, on a "level playing field", an understanding of each other's points of view and issues. The first application of this technology was the development of a workshop on Climate, Climate Change and Public Health held April 12-14, 2011. This paper describes our approach to going beyond the workshop environment to continue to engage the decision maker's community in a variety of ways that translate abstract scientific data into actionable information. Key ideas we will discuss include the development of social media, simulations of global/national/local environments affected by climate disruption, and visualizations of the monetary and health impacts of choosing not to address mitigation or adaptation to climate disruption.

  19. Making climate science accessible in Toledo: The linked boundary chain approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott E. Kalafatis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available For many cities throughout the world, climate change not only presents challenges in the form of new risks and expenses, but also opportunities to connect work around climate change to other development and environmental initiatives. This study presents the City of Toledo in the heart of America’s Rust Belt as a case study of the policy process that gives rise to proactive action on climate change. Using thick description, we trace Toledo’s adaptation policy process through the lens of Kingdon’s “multiple streams” model to identify factors that have shaped the emergence of climate adaptation work around water management in Toledo. Through doing so, we give particular attention to the knowledge resources that those in the City have relied on, especially its boundary chain connection with two supporting boundary organizations: GLAA-C and GLISA. Policy entrepreneurs pushing for climate adaptation around water policy in Toledo emerged around two separate pieces of the policy process. The first entrepreneur was involved with raising general awareness about sustainability and climate change in the City’s problem stream, and the other was specifically involved with integrating climate change information into a particular aspect of the City’s policy stream, water management. While these relationships were important for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into efforts to address existing challenges, they were also representative of the City’s ability to cultivate broader partnerships around climate adaptation. Toledo’s polycentric climate change network ultimately helped the City sustain its adaptation work as it weathered its own period of internal transition.

  20. An integrated approach for evaluating coastal vulnerability in a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Harris, Erica; Allan, Jonathan; Ruggiero, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion threaten many coastal communities and ecosystems. With documented increases in both storm frequency and intensity and projected acceleration of sea level rise, incorporating the impacts of climate change and variability into coastal vulnerability assessments is becoming a necessary, yet challenging task. We are developing an integrated approach to probabilistically incorporate the impacts of climate change into coastal vulnerability ass...

  1. Climate change: what competencies and which medical education and training approaches?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bell Erica J

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Much research has been devoted to identifying healthcare needs in a climate-changing world. However, while there are now global and national policy statements about the importance of health workforce development for climate change, little has been published about what competencies might be demanded of practitioners in a climate-changing world. In such a context, this debate and discussion paper aims to explore the nature of key competencies and related opportunities for teaching climate change in medical education and training. Particular emphasis is made on preparation for practice in rural and remote regions likely to be greatly affected by climate change. Discussion The paper describes what kinds of competencies for climate change might be included in medical education and training. It explores which curricula, teaching, learning and assessment approaches might be involved. Rather than arguing for major changes to medical education and training, this paper explores well established precedents to offer practical suggestions for where a particular kind of literacy--eco-medical literacy--and related competencies could be naturally integrated into existing elements of medical education and training. Summary The health effects of climate change have, generally, not yet been integrated into medical education and training systems. However, the necessary competencies could be taught by building on existing models, best practice and innovative traditions in medicine. Even in crowded curricula, climate change offers an opportunity to reinforce and extend understandings of how interactions between people and place affect health.

  2. Linking Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Climate and Food Security: an Initiative of International Scientific Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.

    2013-05-01

    Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio

  3. Forced response and internal variability of summer climate over western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Shiogama, Hideo; Imada, Yukiko; Mori, Masato; Arakawa, Osamu; Mizuta, Ryo; Yoshida, Kohei; Takahashi, Chiharu; Arai, Miki; Ishii, Masayoshi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Xie, Shang-Ping; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2016-09-01

    Over the past decade, anomalously hot summers and persistent droughts frequented over the western United States (wUS), the condition similar to the 1950s and 1960s. While atmospheric internal variability is important for mid-latitude interannual climate variability, it has been suggested that anthropogenic external forcing and multidecadal modes of variability in sea surface temperature, namely, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), also affect the occurrence of droughts and hot summers. In this study, 100-member ensemble simulations for 1951-2010 by an atmospheric general circulation model were used to explore relative contributions of anthropogenic warming, atmospheric internal variability, and atmospheric response to PDO and AMO to the decadal anomalies over the wUS. By comparing historical and sensitivity simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature, sea ice, historical forcing agents, and non-warming counterfactual climate forcing, we found that large portions of recent increases in mean temperature and frequency of hot summers (66 and 82 %) over the wUS can be attributed to the anthropogenic global warming. In contrast, multidecadal change in the wUS precipitation is explained by a combination of the negative PDO and the positive AMO after the 2000s. Diagnostics using a linear baroclinic model indicate that AMO- and PDO-related diabatic heating anomalies over the tropics contribute to the anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the droughts and hot summers over wUS on multidecadal timescale. Those anomalies are not robust during the periods when PDO and AMO are in phase. The prolonged PDO-AMO antiphase period since the late twentieth century resulted in the substantial component of multidecadal anomalies in temperature and precipitation over the wUS.

  4. International Nuclear Security Situation And China’s Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Chong

    2016-01-01

    Since 2010,the three Nuclear Security Summits have made a number of achievements,but the international nuclear security situation is still not relaxed.The rapid development of China’s domestic nuclear facilities and a large amount of nuclear and radioactive materials related to nuclear power,active international nuclear black market in China’s surrounding regions,rather serious domestic and international terrorist threats as well as the emerging technology development bring about new challenges to nuclear security.Facing the complicated and long-term nuclear security situation,China from the perspective of monitoring mechanism,laws and regulations system,technical capability-building and nuclear emergency preparedness,takes a series of effective measures to build the national nuclear security capacity,and strictly fulfills its international obligations,actively participates in upgrading the international nuclear non-proliferation regime and relevant international rules,and actively takes part in the Nuclear Security Summit process,strengthens bilateral cooperation on nuclear security with major countries especially the United States of America,and jointly organizes various training with International Atomic Energy Agency,which has made great contributions to upgrading the global nuclear security level.At the end of the Nuclear Security Summit process,China should continue to strengthen its domestic nuclear security capacity building,and promote the international community to treat the root causes and symptoms,adopt a comprehensive strategy,and work together,effectively prevent and dissolve the nuclear terrorist threats.

  5. Approaches to Sustainable housing in Denmark and the international inspiration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudstrup, Mary-Ann; Hansen, Hanne Tine Ring; Brunsgaard, Camilla

    Over the last year there have been remarkable changes in the politicians' attitude in Denmark and in the EU member states to the climate changes. This was provoked by the increasing rate of gale activity and flooding in Denmark and Europe as well as in many other places in the world over the last...

  6. Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Inland Pacific Northwest Cereal Production Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eigenbrode, S. D.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Burke, I. C.; Capalbo, S.; Gessler, P.; Huggins, D. R.; Johnson-Maynard, J.; Kruger, C.; Lamb, B. K.; Machado, S.; Mote, P.; Painter, K.; Pan, W.; Petrie, S.; Paulitz, T. C.; Stockle, C.; Walden, V. P.; Wulfhorst, J. D.; Wolf, K. J.

    2011-12-01

    The long-term environmental and economic sustainability of agriculture in the Inland Pacific Northwest (northern Idaho, north central Oregon, and eastern Washington) depends upon improving agricultural management, technology, and policy to enable adaptation to climate change and to help realize agriculture's potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. To address this challenge, three land-grant institutions (Oregon State University, the University of Idaho and Washington State University) (OSU, UI, WSU) and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) units are partners in a collaborative project - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH-PNA). The overarching goal of REACCH is to enhance the sustainability of Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) cereal production systems under ongoing and projected climate change while contributing to climate change mitigation. Supporting goals include: - Develop and implement sustainable agricultural practices for cereal production within existing and projected agroecological zones throughout the region as climate changes, - Contribute to climate change mitigation through improved fertilizer, fuel, and pesticide use efficiency, increased sequestration of soil carbon, and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consistent with the 2030 targets set by the USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), - Work closely with stakeholders and policymakers to promote science-based agricultural approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation, - Increase the number of scientists, educators, and extension professionals with the skills and knowledge to address climate change and its interactions with agriculture. In this poster, we provide an overview of the specific goals of this project and activities that are underway since its inception in spring of 2011.

  7. A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J; McCauley, Lisa A; Wiltermuth, Mark T

    2016-05-01

    With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet-dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

  8. A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J.; McCauley, Lisa A.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

    2016-01-01

    With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet–dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

  9. Bottom up approaches to defining future climate mitigation commitments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elzen MGJ den; Berk MM; KMD

    2005-01-01

    This report analyses a number of alternative, bottom-up approaches, i.e. technology and performance standards; technology Research and Development agreements, sectoral targets (national /transnational), sector based CDM, and sustainable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs). Included are tech

  10. Dilemma and Prospect of International Climate Negotiation%国际气候谈判的困境与展望

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王苏春; 王勇

    2013-01-01

      气候变化是一个典型的全球性问题,需要所有国家和团体共同应对,国际气候谈判应运而生。谈判充满矛盾、挑战和博弈,尽管形成了减排温室气体的共识,但仍有“搭便车”现象,谈判一度陷入“囚徒困境”,存在着局部利益与全局利益的冲突。国际气候谈判受到气候、政治、经济和技术等多方面因素的影响。在未来国际气候谈判中,应当寻求国际合作,民主协商谈判,尊重国家主权,借鉴天下理论,走可持续发展的道路。%Climate change is a typically global environmental problem that requires all the countries and organizations to jointly cope with, and the international climate negotiation system emerges as the time require. The climate negotiations are full of contradiction, challenge and gaming. Although the consensus of reducing greenhouse gas emissions has come into being, the free-rider phenomenon still exists and, at one time, the ne-gotiation was trapped in the prisoner�s dilemma because of the conflicts between partial interests and general in-terests. The international climate negotiation is influenced by many factors such as climate, politics, economy and technology. In the future, countries should seek international cooperation, strive for international sources, consult and negotiate democratically, respect state sovereignty and persist in sustainable development in the in-ternational climate negotiations.

  11. International benchmarking of tertiary trauma centers: productivity and throughput approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthes Gerrit

    2011-08-01

    were the most comparable parts of trauma care between the hospitals. The study also showed that the international benchmarking approach could be used to reveal bottlenecks in system-level policies and practices.

  12. Statistical Approaches to Aerosol Dynamics for Climate Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Wei

    2014-09-02

    In this work, we introduce two general non-parametric regression analysis methods for errors-in-variable (EIV) models: the compound regression, and the constrained regression. It is shown that these approaches are equivalent to each other and, to the general parametric structural modeling approach. The advantages of these methods lie in their intuitive geometric representations, their distribution free nature, and their ability to offer a practical solution when the ratio of the error variances is unknown. Each includes the classic non-parametric regression methods of ordinary least squares, geometric mean regression, and orthogonal regression as special cases. Both methods can be readily generalized to multiple linear regression with two or more random regressors.

  13. Using an Interdisciplinary Approach to Enhance Climate Literacy for K-12 Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanselman, J. A.; Oches, E. A.; Sliko, J.; Wright, L.

    2014-12-01

    The Next Generation Science Standards (2014) will begin to change how K-12 teachers teach science. Using a scaffolding approach, the standards focus on a depth of knowledge across multiple content areas. This philosophy should encourage inquiry-based teaching methods, provided the teacher has both the knowledge and the confidence to teach the content. Although confidence to teach science is high among secondary science (biology, general science, chemistry) teachers, depth of knowledge may be lacking in certain areas, including climate science. To address this issue, a graduate course in climate science (Massachusetts Colleges Online Course of Distinction award winner) was developed to include inquiry-based instruction, connections to current research, and interdisciplinary approaches to teaching science. With the support of the InTeGrate program (SERC) at Carleton College, a module was developed to utilize cli-fi (climate science present in fictional literature) and related climate data. Graduate students gain an appreciation of scientific communication and an understanding of climate data and its connection to societal issues. In addition, the graduate students also gain the ability to connect interdisciplinary concepts for a deeper understanding of climate science and have the opportunity. By the end of the course, the graduate students use the content learned and the examples of pedagogical tools to develop their own activities in his or her classroom.

  14. Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Perez, Edmundo

    It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty

  15. International Legal Mechanisms Of Responsibility For The Harm To Climate Leading To Change Of The State Territory Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey D. Belockiy

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the present article author analyzed question international legal responsibility of state’s for harm done by the climatic changes caused by the emission of greenhouse gases in the course of activity in the power sphere, leading to flooding of the state territories formation. Such mechanisms are based on a number of international legal acts, from which the documents of the system UN FCCC play a key role, including both FCCC, and the Kyoto Protocol and the decisions made within the Conference of parties. At the same time there is a number of problems, unresolved within the modern international law, namely mechanisms of such responsibility realization and proof of connection existence between emissions of greenhouse gases by this state and flooding of other state territory which in principle have to lead to the responsibility occurrence. Author explains that this moment is especially important because international law doesn't forbid emissions of greenhouse gases itself. Besides, recently perspectives of climate changes began to be considered as a threat to peace and safety, what makes it possibility of implement other then UN FCCC mechanisms. Author notes that, for example, they are considered by the UN Security Council. In the conclusion author makes a statement that at this stage of development of international law we deal with a forming mechanism of the state’s international legal responsibility for the harm done by the climate changes caused by factors, including emission of greenhouse gases in the course of activity in the power sphere.

  16. Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to International Risk-Sharing:A Robustness Check of the Bilateral Setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.; Kool, C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a robustness check of the stochastic discount factor approach to international (bilateral) risk-sharing given in Brandt, Cochrane, and Santa-Clara (2006). We demonstrate two main inherent limitations of the bilateral SDF approach to international risk-sharing. First, the discount

  17. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  18. International Conference on Harmonisation; Stability Data Package for Registration Applications in Climatic Zones III and IV; Stability Testing of New Drug Substances and Products; availability. Notice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-11-21

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is announcing the availability of two guidances prepared under the auspices of the International Conference on Harmonization of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH). The first is a guidance entitled "Q1F Stability Data Package for Registration Applications in Climatic Zones III and IV'' (the Q1F guidance). The second is a revised guidance entitled "Q1A(R2) Stability Testing of New Drug Substances and Products'' (the Q1A guidance). The Q1F guidance, which is an annex to the Q1A guidance, defines an approach for broader use of the Q1A guidance for territories in climatic zones III and IV. The revised Q1A guidance incorporates relevant Q1F recommendations.

  19. Game-theoretic analysis of international climate agreements: the design of transfer schemes and the role of technological change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nagashima, M.N.

    2010-01-01

    Global warming is one of the crucial challenges that the world is facing now. The allocation of reduction efforts among regions has long been negotiated and it will not be an easy task to achieve a full cooperation with stringent targets. The thesis examines the formation of international climate

  20. Climate Change in Jordan: A Comprehensive Examination Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moshrik R. Hamdi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Jordan is experiencing harsh water shortage in different parts of the country due to high fluctuations in annual precipitation; the only source of water. In addition, heat waves are becoming more frequent in the region. Precipitation decrement and summer heat waves are being blamed on global warming. This study aimed to detect trends in weather parameters in Jordan. Approach: Data from six meteorological stations distributed around Jordan were analyzed using several parametric and nonparametric statistical approaches including Mann-Kendall, Linear Regression, Cusum, Rank Sum, Student's t-test, Rank Difference, Auto Correlation and Skewness-Kurtosis Normality test. Results: The results indicated that there are no visible trends indicating an increase or decrease in the annual precipitation and maximum temperature. However, there are good to strong trends indicating that annual minimum temperature has increased in the last decade while annual temperature range has decreased. Conclusion: Decreasing temperature range proved that the Earth’s atmosphere is becoming more efficient in trapping terrestrial infrared radiation, which is accountable for the global warming.

  1. Evaluating international research ethics capacity development: an empirical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Joseph; Kass, Nancy E; Sewankambo, Nelson K; White, Tara D; Hyder, Adnan A

    2014-04-01

    The US national institutes of health, Fogarty International Center (NIH-FIC) has, for the past 13 years, been a leading funder of international research ethics education for resource-limited settings. Nearly half of the NIH-FIC funding in this area has gone to training programs that train individuals from sub-Saharan Africa. Identifying the impact of training investments, as well as the potential predictors of post-training success, can support curricular decisionmaking, help establish funding priorities, and recognize the ultimate outcomes of trainees and training programs. Comprehensive evaluation frameworks and targeted evaluation tools for bioethics training programs generally, and for international research ethics programs in particular, are largely absent from published literature. This paper shares an original conceptual framework, data collection tool, and detailed methods for evaluating the inputs, processes, outputs, and outcomes of research ethics training programs serving individuals in resource-limited settings. This paper is part of a collection of papers analyzing the Fogarty International Center's International Research Ethics Education and Curriculum Development program.

  2. An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture

  3. The ideological divide and climate change opinion: "top-down" and "bottom-up" approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquet, Jennifer; Dietrich, Monica; Jost, John T

    2014-01-01

    The United States wields disproportionate global influence in terms of carbon dioxide emissions and international climate policy. This makes it an especially important context in which to examine the interplay among social, psychological, and political factors in shaping attitudes and behaviors related to climate change. In this article, we review the emerging literature addressing the liberal-conservative divide in the U.S. with respect to thought, communication, and action concerning climate change. Because of its theoretical and practical significance, we focus on the motivational basis for skepticism and inaction on the part of some, including "top-down" institutional forces, such as corporate strategy, and "bottom-up" psychological factors, such as ego, group, and system justification. Although more research is needed to elucidate fully the social, cognitive, and motivational bases of environmental attitudes and behavior, a great deal has been learned in just a few years by focusing on specific ideological factors in addition to general psychological principles.

  4. Globalisation, international transport and the global environment. A scenario approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Veen-Groot, D.B.; Nijkamp, P. [Department of Spatial Economics, Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    1999-07-01

    The project 'Globalisation, International Transport and the Global Environment' aims to investigate the consequences of globalisation for international transport for global environmental quality as reflected in greenhouse gases in a very general sense. The policy aim (global/European) is to analyse the influence of international policy (Kyoto/IPCC/changes in carbon taxes) on transport volumes, intermodal substitutions or vehicle size and its implications for the environment. This short-paper aims to give an overview of the state-of-the-art of the title project. Attention will be paid to the assessment of trends, the scenario method, the conceptual framework and four qualitative globalisation scenarios. 16 refs.

  5. A Game Theory Approach for Product Specialization in International Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana-Veronica ALEXA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Game theory, in its most basic form, considers two players and analyses the different strategies that they can use and the effect that these strategies will have on each player. International trade allows countries to use better their resources (labor, technology or capital. Since countries have different capital or natural resources, some of them will produce a good more efficiently than others and therefore could sell it cheaper than other countries. By using game theory in international trade we could determine if the H-O-S model is correct and what would be the best specialization for each country.

  6. Accessing international financing for climate change mitigation - A guidebook for developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Limaye, D.R.; Zhu, X.

    2012-08-15

    This guidebook has been prepared by the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC) as part of its Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) project. The TNA project assists developing countries to identify national mitigation and adaptation technology priorities and to develop Technology Action Plans (TAPs) for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change adaptation. This guidebook provides information to help TNA countries better identify and access financial resources for the mitigation activities included in their national TAPs. This guidebook covers both mitigation 'projects' (such as a wind farm or a solar PV generation facility) and 'programmes' (such as a credit line for financing energy efficiency projects in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), or bulk procurement and distribution of compact fluorescent lamps to households). The primary emphasis is on multilateral and bilateral sources of financing but the guidebook also includes an overview of private funding sources and public-private partnerships (PPPs). This guidebook only covers international financing for mitigation actions in developing countries. For example, EU funding for EU member countries and Chinese funding for mitigation in China are not covered in this guidebook. However, the EU funding for mitigation in developing countries and Chinese funding supporting mitigation in other developing countries are included. Special funds established in some developing countries by pooling financing support from developed countries are also covered in this guidebook. Information on the financing sources was compiled in a standard format and reviewed and analysed to categorise the financing sources. For the multilateral and bilateral financing sources, the available information was used to define their major characteristics (such as geographic coverage, technology/sector focus, funding sources, financing objectives, financing mechanisms, and management and governance). In addition, the

  7. Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross S. Davidson

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

  8. International Business Education in a Global Environment: A Conceptual Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Jaime

    2004-01-01

    The globalisation phenomenon poses a different set of challenges to the higher education system in countries around the world and requires that international business students be prepared to function professionally in an increasingly complex, interdependent, and dynamic economy. Understanding the educational implications of the…

  9. Preventing HIV transmission in chinese internal migrants: A behavioral approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    X. Liu (Xiaona); V. Erasmus (Vicky); X. Sun (Xinying); R. Cai (Rui); Y. Shi (Yuhui); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractThis study is a step towards a behavioral intervention to prevent HIV transmission among Chinese internal migrants. To explore important and changeable determinants of condom use and inspect effective and feasible methods to increase condom use for the target population, we conducted a t

  10. Ethics in international business: multinational approaches to child labor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.; van Tulder, R.J.M.

    2004-01-01

    How do multinationals address conflicting norms and expectations? This article focuses on corporate codes of ethics in the area of child labor as possible expressions of Strategic International Human Resource Management. It analyses whether fifty leading multinational adopt universal ethical norms (

  11. The Human Rights Approach to Education in International Organisations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufner, Klaus

    2011-01-01

    In this article, the work of three international governmental organisations (IGOs) dealing with human rights will be discussed, namely the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the Council of Europe (CoE). In the first section, the main characteristics of the…

  12. International Impacts of Global Climate Change: Testimony to House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulkerson, W.; Cushman, R. M.; Marland, G.; Rayner, S.

    1989-02-21

    International impacts of global climate change are those for which the important consequences arise because of national sovereignty. Such impacts could be of two types: (1) migrations across national borders of people, of resources (such as agricultural productivity, or surface water, or natural ecosystems), of effluents, or of patterns of commerce; and (2) changes to the way nations use and manage their resources, particularly fossil fuels and forests, as a consequence of international concern over the global climate. Actions by a few resource-dominant nations may affect the fate of all. These two types of international impacts raise complex equity issues because one nation may perceive itself as gaining at the expense of its neighbors, or it may perceive itself as a victim of the actions of others.

  13. International impacts of global climate change: Testimony to House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fulkerson, W.; Cushman, R.M.; Marland, G.; Rayner, S.

    1989-02-21

    International impacts of global climate change are those for which the important consequences arise because of national sovereignty. Such impacts could be of two types: (1) migrations across national borders of people, of resources (such as agricultural productivity, or surface water, or natural ecosystems), of effluents, or of patterns of commerce; and (2) changes to the way nations use and manage their resources, particularly fossil fuels and forests, as a consequence of international concern over the global climate. Actions by a few resource-dominant nations may affect the fate of all. These two types of international impacts raise complex equity issues because one nation may perceive itself as gaining at the expense of its neighbors, or it may perceive itself as a victim of the actions of others. 11 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  14. Water, Biodiversity and Climate Change Studies in International Schools Network of the Park Škocjan Caves, Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debevec Gerjevic, Vanja

    2010-05-01

    As UNESCO World Heritage Site, Ramsar Site and Biosphere Reserve the Park Škocjan Caves strongly believes in development of quality educational programme in order to fulfill the guidelines of international conventions and also provide for awareness and development in the future. Ten years ago we started with water analysis projects and performed several projects related to natural, cultural and social aspect of water protection. We developed a special model of training the teachers and educating the children. Together we have accomplished two international projects, two national project and several research projects dealing with The Reka river and karst phenomena. In 2003 we officially established the schools network, where we join in research education programmes five elementary schools form Slovenia and two from Italy. They are all located beside the surface and underground flow of the Reka River. Fifteen teachers and more than hundred children are involved in educational programme every year. Our work in the schools network enables us to bring science to society in a comprehensive way including the scientists and their work in preparation and implementation of projects. With teachers help we promote science studies but also encourage children to do social projects in order to keep intergeneration connections and gain knowledge of past experience and life from our grandparents. The paper will present the role of protected area in public awareness and education with special emphasis on natural phenomena of water in the Karst region as a toll for joint work in the field for scientists and school children. Chemical and biological analysis of the Reka River and other water bodies will be presented and accompanied with the biodiversity survey and climate change research projects. New approach of performing the research studies and presentation of results for schoolchildren will be explained.

  15. How to use The National Gallery as a cross curricular approach to weather and climate studies at primary level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, P. J. K.

    2009-09-01

    How to use The National Gallery as a cross curricular approach to weather and climate studies at primary level. Pål J. Kirkeby Hansen Faculty of Education and International Studies, Oslo University College (PalKirkeby.Hansen@lui.hio.no) Weather and climate are topics in natural science and geography in primary and secondary education in most countries. The pupils are often doing own weather observations and measurements and are presenting the results oral, by posters or with digital aids. They also use the Internet with all its relevant resources in their studies to develop vocabulary, practical and conceptual knowledge. Knowledge about weather and climate is parts of liberal education and could be projected to other topics in science and to topics in other subjects, for instance: history, social geography, literature and arts. This article reports from a case study in grade 3 classes (age 9 year) during their Weather Week. Their science teacher was, quite untypical, also educated in art history. She arranged a visited to The National Gallery with the double agenda: 1. To introduce the pupils to Norwegian canon paintings from the national romantic period, our so-called "golden age”. 2. To look for and discuss weather elements in this paintings. For one hour the museum curator guided the pupils around the water cycle by using the paintings. While the pupils' own observations of weather, clouds and wind and measurements of temperature and precipitation during the Weather Week only are point checks, the guided tour in The National Gallery gave literally "the whole picture” of the Norwegian weather and climate and of the water cycle. During the tour, the curator constantly invited the pupils to tell about and discuss what weather and water elements they were looking at when standing in front of a painting. The pupils were responsive and interested all the time. Back at school, they demonstrated that they had learned much about both weather elements, the water

  16. A first approach to calculate BIOCLIM variables and climate zones for Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Monika; Trutschnig, Wolfgang; Bathke, Arne C.; Ruprecht, Ulrike

    2017-02-01

    For testing the hypothesis that macroclimatological factors determine the occurrence, biodiversity, and species specificity of both symbiotic partners of Antarctic lecideoid lichens, we present a first approach for the computation of the full set of 19 BIOCLIM variables, as available at http://www.worldclim.org/ for all regions of the world with exception of Antarctica. Annual mean temperature (Bio 1) and annual precipitation (Bio 12) were chosen to define climate zones of the Antarctic continent and adjacent islands as required for ecological niche modeling (ENM). The zones are based on data for the years 2009-2015 which was obtained from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) database of the Ohio State University. For both temperature and precipitation, two separate zonings were specified; temperature values were divided into 12 zones (named 1 to 12) and precipitation values into five (named A to E). By combining these two partitions, we defined climate zonings where each geographical point can be uniquely assigned to exactly one zone, which allows an immediate explicit interpretation. The soundness of the newly calculated climate zones was tested by comparison with already published data, which used only three zones defined on climate information from the literature. The newly defined climate zones result in a more precise assignment of species distribution to the single habitats. This study provides the basis for a more detailed continental-wide ENM using a comprehensive dataset of lichen specimens which are located within 21 different climate regions.

  17. New Approaches for Crop Genetic Adaptation to the Abiotic Stresses Predicted with Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Redden

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic variation is predicted with climate change this century. In many cropping regions, the crop environment will tend to be warmer with more irregular rainfall and spikes in stress levels will be more severe. The challenge is not only to raise agricultural production for an expanding population, but to achieve this under more adverse environmental conditions. It is now possible to systematically explore the genetic variation in historic local landraces by using GPS locators and world climate maps to describe the natural selection for local adaptation, and to identify candidate germplasm for tolerances to extreme stresses. The physiological and biochemical components of these expressions can be genomically investigated with candidate gene approaches and next generation sequencing. Wild relatives of crops have largely untapped genetic variation for abiotic and biotic stress tolerances, and could greatly expand the available domesticated gene pools to assist crops to survive in the predicted extremes of climate change, a survivalomics strategy. Genomic strategies can assist in the introgression of these valuable traits into the domesticated crop gene pools, where they can be better evaluated for crop improvement. The challenge is to increase agricultural productivity despite climate change. This calls for the integration of many disciplines from eco-geographical analyses of genetic resources to new advances in genomics, agronomy and farm management, underpinned by an understanding of how crop adaptation to climate is affected by genotype × environment interaction.

  18. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CROP PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA: AN ERROR CORRECTION MODELLING APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. B. Eregha

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is termed as one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century and this has posed threat to agricultural dependent economies. In fact report had it that developing economies are at disadvantage as they stand to experience some of the severe effects from climate change. It is against this backdrop that this paper examines the impact of climate change on crop production in Nigeria. Ten crops were selected and three climatic variables were used for the study. Data for the study were extracted from the Food and Agricultural Organisation database, World Development Indicator and the CBN Statistical Bulletin and the data covers the period 1970-2009. Analysis of data was done with cointegration approach. The study revealed that the effect of climatic variables on crop production varies depending on the type of crop and seasonal properties and length of days of the crop. In general, climate change effect was found to be pronounced on the output of the crops. It is therefore recommended that various adaptation strategies necessary for increased output of these crops be adopted by farmers and this can better be achieved with proper enlightenment programmes for the farmers.

  19. Cognitive Structure of Climate Information System Actors:Using Causal Mapping Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Sharifzadeh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Promoting sustainability, productivity, efficiency, and development of agricultural sector are the functions of utilization of appropriate information in terms of agricultural climate information system (ACIS. In this regard, the main question is that, to what extent does the ACIS lead to or provide the necessary context for agricultural development? This research aimed to employ causal mapping approach to investigate cognitive structure of human actors in a climate information system. This explorative qualitative research used case study methodology. This paper is an examination and reflection upon analysis of qualitative data reports, with particular attention to the process of interactively elicited causal maps based on focus group interviews. An exploratory coding approach was used to identify concepts that emerged from the interview transcripts. The relevant knowledge is gathered through the tacit understandings of climate information producers (2 groups, extensionists (6 groups, and users (7 groups in Fars province to reach to the point of redundancy. Investigating causal maps revealed that, actors perceived climate information system challenges as economic, information processing, socio-political, organizational, and technical challenges. The study provided some suggestions to reach to a responsive short term and sustainable long term climate information system in Fars province.

  20. Systems Approach to Climate, Water, and Diarrhea in Hubli-Dharwad, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Jonathan; Kumpel, Emily; Ercumen, Ayse; Zimmerman, Julie

    2016-12-06

    Anthropogenic climate change will likely increase diarrhea rates for communities with inadequate water, sanitation, or hygiene facilities including those with intermittent water supplies. Current approaches to study these impacts typically focus on the effect of temperature on all-cause diarrhea while excluding precipitation and diarrhea etiology while not providing actionable adaptation strategies. We develop a partially mechanistic, systems approach to estimate future diarrhea prevalence and design adaptation strategies. The model incorporates downscaled global climate models, water quality data, quantitative microbial risk assessment, and pathogen prevalence in an agent-based modeling framework incorporating precipitation and diarrhea etiology. It is informed using water quality and diarrhea data from Hubli-Dharwad, India-a city with an intermittent piped water supply exhibiting seasonal water quality variability vulnerable to climate change. We predict all-cause diarrhea prevalence to increase by 4.9% (Range: 1.5-9.0%) by 2011-2030, 11.9% (Range: 7.1-18.2%) by 2046-2065, and 18.2% (Range: 9.1-26.2%) by 2080-2099. Rainfall is an important modifying factor. Rotavirus prevalence is estimated to decline by 10.5% with Cryptosporidium and E. coli prevalence increasing by 9.9% and 6.3%, respectively, by 2080-2099 in this setting. These results suggest that ceramic water filters would be recommended as a climate adaptation strategy over chlorination. This work highlights the vulnerability of intermittent water supplies to climate change and the urgent need for improvements.

  1. International negotiations on climate change towards a new international deal?; Les negociations sur le changement climatique: vers une nouvelle donne internationale?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    This document reports the work performed by the French 'Centre d'Analyse Strategique' until the first of November within the perspective of a new international agreement to struggle against climate change beyond 2012. The basic idea is that such an agreement will have a meaning only if it is signed and ratified by the both main greenhouse gas emitting countries, the United States and China. A first part of this report describes the context and the post-2012 negotiation perspectives, as well as the status of international cooperation in the field of climate change. The two following chapters present syntheses of the climate policies and negotiation postures of China and United States. Then, the authors give an overview of the strategic interests and postures of some other big countries like India, Brazil, Russia, Canada, OPEC countries, and so on. The last part deals with issues of rights of intellectual property applied to the elaboration of 'clean' technologies and to international technological transfers.

  2. Using a community-driven approach to identify local forest and climate change priorities in Teslin, Yukon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joleen Timko

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The likelihood of addressing the complex environmental, economic, and social/cultural issues associated with local climate change impacts is enhanced when collaborative partnerships with local people are established. Using a community-centered approach in the Teslin region of Canada’s Yukon Territory, we utilized our research skills to respond to local needs for information by facilitating both an internal community process to clarify traditional and local knowledge, values, and perceptions on locally identified priorities, while gathering external information to enable local people to make sound decisions. Specifically, we sought to clarify local perceptions surrounding climate change impacts on fire risk and wildlife habitat, and the potential adaptation strategies appropriate and feasible within the Teslin Tlingit Traditional Territory. This paper provides a characterization of the study region and our project team; provides background on the interview and data collection process; presents our key results; and discusses the importance of our findings and charts a way forward for our continued work with the people in the Teslin region. This approach presents an excellent opportunity to help people holistically connect a range of local values, including fire risk mitigation, habitat enhancement, economic development, and enhanced social health.

  3. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Moyle

    Full Text Available Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1 current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction and (2 likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction. Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish

  4. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M

    2013-01-01

    Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different

  5. Moving-Frame Approach to Nonlinear Internal Waves in Oceans

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Xiaoping

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we introduce a moving-frame approach to the geophysical equation of two-dimensional uniformly stratified rotational fluid in oceans and find a family of exact solutions containing ten arbitrary parameter functions.

  6. Dialogic action in climate change discussions: An international study of high school students in China, New Zealand, Norway and the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana J. Arya

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Global efforts to prepare young developing minds for solving current and future challenges of climate change have advocated interdisciplinary, issues-based instructional approaches in order to transform traditional models of science education as delivering conceptual facts (UNESCO, 2014. This study is an exploration of the online interactions in an international social network of high school students residing in Norway, China, New Zealand and the United States (N=141. Students participated in classroom-based and asynchronous online discussions about adapted versions of seminal scientific studies with facilitative support from seven scientists across various fields. Grounded in a language-in-use frame for investigating facilitation and demonstrations of problem-based and evidence-based reasoning (Kelly & Chen, 1999, we traced the varied questions, assertions, and evidentiary sources within student-led online discussions. We found that questions from scientific experts in the form of unconstrained, open-ended invitations for exploration were followed by students’ acknowledgement and consideration of complex and, at times, conflicting sociopolitical and economic positions about climate change issues. These findings suggest that broadening science classroom discussions to include socially relevant, unsolved issues like climate change could open potential entry points for a dialogic approach that fosters a scientific community in the classroom.

  7. Analyzing Foreign Market Entry Strategies: Extending the Internalization Approach

    OpenAIRE

    1998-01-01

    A new fully integrated analysis of the foreign market entry decision is presented, encompassing the choice between exporting, licensing, joint venturing and wholly owned foreign investment. The choice between acquisition and greenfield investment is examined, and so too are options based on subcontracting and franchising. The model extends the insights of internalization theory, and draws on concepts from the economics of industrial organization. A special feature of the model is the distinct...

  8. Different Approaches in Addressing Internal and External Economic Imbalances

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭树清

    2008-01-01

    This article analyzes the internal and external imbalances of China’s economy from a global perspective. The author believes that trade surplus and savings surplus are not the absolute metrics to define a country’s economic strength. China’s balance of payments has continued to maintain a big surplus, which shows China’s unique economic structure and growth model and exposes deep contradictions in income distribution, factor prices and resource allocation. While stimulating rapid growth, the imbalance of China’s economy, at the same time, has long delayed the upgrading of industrial structure, aggravating the threat of inflation and heightening concerns of an asset bubble. Although the external and internal imbalances are closely linked to each other, they are quite different in nature. This similar global economic imbalance has existed for a long time, and to a great extent, is inevitable and rational. However, internal imbalances caused by its own systems and policies, if lasted, would have severe and negative impacts not only on China’s economy, but on the global economy as a whole.

  9. Reinvigorating International Climate Policy: A Comprehensive Framework for Effective Nonstate Action

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chan, Sander; Asselt, van Harro; Hale, Thomas; Hoehne, N.E.

    2015-01-01

    As countries negotiate a new climate agreement for the United Nations climate conference in December 2015, a groundswell of climate actions is emerging as cities, regions, businesses and civil society groups act on mitigation and adaptation, independently, with each other and with national governmen

  10. Assessment of exchange of crop in view of change climate and International Treaties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anil Kumar; Pedapati, Annitaa; Manibhushan

    2015-01-01

    To meet the UN millennium development goal of reducing the number of hungry people to half by 2015, there is utmost need to breed potentially high yielding varieties to match up the requirement along with corrective measures to bridge the gap between the potential yield and yield harvested by farmers. The scenario has changed from free access to limited access of plant genetic resources (PGR) and therefore, it is important to understand the issues in view of national and international agreements, intellectual property rights (IPR'S), climate change conditions and expanded scope of breeders and farmers rights for developed genotypes. For efficient management of PGR, developing countries need to understand the implications of PGR related IPR'S as stronger IPR'S in developed countries could have harmful effects by reduced exchange of genetic resources from developed countries. Keeping in view the existing realities every possible effort should be taken for enrichment of crop gene pool by introducing them from each and every corner of the globe. Keeping these facts in view this paper describes the priorities for introduction and exchange of important crop groups/crops along with some of their potential wild and weedy relatives and thrust has been given to generate awareness among the workers engaged in the breeders/crop improvement works. Information provided in this presentation can be utilized by prospective crop improvement works to plan to meet out the nationalfood security.

  11. A decision science approach for integrating social science in climate and energy solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Krishnamurti, Tamar; Davis, Alex; Schwartz, Daniel; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2016-06-01

    The social and behavioural sciences are critical for informing climate- and energy-related policies. We describe a decision science approach to applying those sciences. It has three stages: formal analysis of decisions, characterizing how well-informed actors should view them; descriptive research, examining how people actually behave in such circumstances; and interventions, informed by formal analysis and descriptive research, designed to create attractive options and help decision-makers choose among them. Each stage requires collaboration with technical experts (for example, climate scientists, geologists, power systems engineers and regulatory analysts), as well as continuing engagement with decision-makers. We illustrate the approach with examples from our own research in three domains related to mitigating climate change or adapting to its effects: preparing for sea-level rise, adopting smart grid technologies in homes, and investing in energy efficiency for office buildings. The decision science approach can facilitate creating climate- and energy-related policies that are behaviourally informed, realistic and respectful of the people whom they seek to aid.

  12. Bio-climatic accommodation, a natural cooling approach; Le logement bioclimatique, une demarche de rafraichissement naturel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-03-01

    In bio-climatic accommodations the structure of a building is assimilated to a living system. This architectural approach takes advantage of and adapts the traditional methods of construction to reach the best thermal comfort conditions in summer like in winter. This approach, complementary to the classical space heating solutions, is compatible with the thermal regulation rules and combines with a high environmental quality approach. This meeting, organized by the research center of Gaz de France (Cegibat) was a good opportunity for specialists of bio-climatic buildings to explain the key-factors of success of the thermal comfort performances of such buildings: orientation, ventilation, shading to avoid greenhouse effects, limitation of the sunlight reflection of terraces. (J.S.)

  13. AgMIP's Transdisciplinary Agricultural Systems Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antle, John M.; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Janssen, Sander; Jones, James W.; Porter, Cheryl H.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Thorburn, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter describes methods developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to implement a transdisciplinary, systems-based approach for regional-scale (local to national) integrated assessment of agricultural systems under future climate, biophysical, and socio-economic conditions. These methods were used by the AgMIP regional research teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to implement the analyses reported in their respective chapters of this book. Additional technical details are provided in Appendix 1.The principal goal that motivates AgMIP's regional integrated assessment (RIA) methodology is to provide scientifically rigorous information needed to support improved decision-making by various stakeholders, ranging from local to national and international non-governmental and governmental organizations.

  14. Concept of Staged Approach for International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility

    CERN Document Server

    Sugimoto, M; Takeuchi, H

    2000-01-01

    The intense neutron source for development of fusion materials planned by international collaboration makes a new step to clarify the technical issues for realizing the 40 MeV, 250 mA deuteron beam facility. The baseline concept employs two identical 125 mA linac modules whose beams are combined at the flowing lithium target. Recent work for reducing the cost loading concerns the staged deployment of the full irradiation capability in three steps. The Japanese activity about the design and development study about IFMIF accelerator in this year is presented and the schedule of next several years is overviewed.

  15. Phonology in English language teaching an international approach

    CERN Document Server

    Pennington, Martha C

    2014-01-01

    Phonology in English Language Teaching is an introductory text, specifically directed at the needs of language teachers internationally. Combining an overview of English phonology with structured practical guidance, this text shows how phonology can be applied in the classroom.An introductory chapter provides the philosophical framework, followed by separate chapters on the phonology of consonants, vowels and prosody. As well as presenting core material on English phonology, the book explores the relationship of orthography to the English sound system from a historical and a pre

  16. A Heuristic Approach for International Crude Oil Transportation Scheduling Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Sisi; Nishi, Tatsushi; Izuno, Tsukasa

    In this paper, we propose a heuristic algorithm to solve a practical ship scheduling problem for international crude oil transportation. The problem is considered as a vehicle routing problem with split deliveries. The objective of this paper is to find an optimal assignment of tankers, a sequence of visiting and loading volume simultaneously in order to minimize the total distance satisfying the capacity of tankers. A savings-based meta-heuristic algorithm with lot sizing parameters and volume assignment heuristic is developed. The proposed method is applied to solve a case study with real data. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness of the heuristic algorithm compared with that of human operators.

  17. Actor Network Theory Approach and its Application in Investigating Agricultural Climate Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Sharifzadeh

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Actor network theory as a qualitative approach to study complex social factors and process of socio-technical interaction provides new concepts and ideas to understand socio-technical nature of information systems. From the actor network theory viewpoint, agricultural climate information system is a network consisting of actors, actions and information related processes (production, transformation, storage, retrieval, integration, diffusion and utilization, control and management, and system mechanisms (interfaces and networks. Analysis of such systemsembody the identification of basic components and structure of the system (nodes –thedifferent sources of information production, extension, and users, and the understanding of how successfully the system works (interaction and links – in order to promote climate knowledge content and improve system performance to reach agricultural development. The present research attempted to introduce actor network theory as research framework based on network view of agricultural climate information system.

  18. A Challenge-Feedback Learning Approach to Teaching International Business

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sternad, Dietmar

    2015-01-01

    This article introduces a challenge-feedback learning (CFL) approach based on the goal-setting theory of human motivation, the deliberate practice theory of expert performance, and findings from the research on active and collaborative learning. The core of the teaching concept is the CFL cycle in which students repeatedly progress through four…

  19. Currency Invoicing in International Trade : A Panel Data Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligthart, J.E.; Da Silva, J.

    2007-01-01

    The paper empirically investigates the determinants of currency invoicing in Dutch goods trade with OECD countries. To this end, a currency-share systems approach is employed, which is applied to quarterly panel data for 1987–1998. One of the key findings is that a country’s share of producer curren

  20. A Relational Approach to International Education through Homestay Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Junko; Viswat, Linda

    2015-01-01

    This paper identifies and analyzes intercultural problems through surveys of homestay programs with Japanese students and American host mothers. Given that participants need to go beyond their cognitive knowledge to interact effectively with people from other cultures, a relational approach may be more effective than traditional intercultural…

  1. France, an international partner in the climate change field; La France, partenaire international dans le domaine du changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    Cooperation for low carbon and energy efficient development is a high priority for France, in line with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. France contributes to tackling climate change by working with its partners on all continents to implement projects both to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change. Within the framework of the Marrakech Accords, France also encourages the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism, in particular between French business and non-Annex I countries; this mechanism will facilitate the financing of mitigation projects and contribute to the sustainable development of host countries in the South. At multilateral level, France is a major donor. At a bilateral level, an initial analysis of cooperation projects which are strongly linked to tackling climate change identified public support of 136 millions euros per year, as an average over the past few years. Some project examples, mostly implemented with local/national co-financing are presented. (A.L.B.)

  2. A knowledge discovery approach to explore some Sun/Earth's climate relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pou, A.; Valdes, J.

    2009-09-01

    Delta O18/16 data would more readily respond to solar influences. This raises the suspicion that perhaps they do not only reflect temperatures but also solar activity, as well as other possible factors not directly related to atmospheric temperatures. These methodologies may be useful as exploratory tools, directing the attention to specific areas where further research should be required. This could be the case of the Delta O18/16 data, frequently considered to be a reliable and accurate proxy of temperatures. c) Another experiment was made using daily maximum temperatures from 10 Spanish meteorological stations for the period 1901-2005 [3]. Using a hybrid procedure (Differential Evolution and Fletcher-Reeves Classical Optimization) it was found that a subset was capable of preserving the 10-dimensional similarity when nonlinearly mapped into 1D. A daily index, F1 was applied to the whole dataset and grouped by years and transformed into a Kolmogorov-Smirnov dissimilarity matrix, space optimized and clustered giving the following landmarks: 1911-12, 1919-1920, 1960, 1973 and 1989. A visual comparison with the aa geomagnetic index may suggest a certain coupling with changes in the magnetic field behavior. The complexity of the patterns suggest that the possible relationships between Earth's climate and solar activity may occur in much more complex ways than just irradiance variations and simple linear correlations. REFERENCES: [1] Valdés, J.J., Bonham-Carter, G. " Time Dependent Neural Network Models For Detecting Changes of State in Complex Processes: Applications in Earth Sciences and Astronomy”. Neural Networks, vol 19, (2), pp 196-207, 2006. [2] Valdés, J., Pou, A. "Greenland Temperatures and Solar Activity: A Computational Intelligence Approach," Proceedings of the 2007 IEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN 2007). Orlando, Florida, USA. August 12-17, 2007. [3] Valdés, J., Pou, A., Orchard, B. "Characterization of Climatic Variations in

  3. Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kihara, Job; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Bationo, Andre; Koala, Saidou; Hickman, Jonathon; Koo, Jawoo; Vanya, Charles; Adiku, Samuel; Beletse, Yacob; Masikate, Patricia; Rao, Karuturi P. C.; Mutter, Carolyn Z.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, James W.

    2012-01-01

    Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing climate change-related effects that call for integrated regional assessments, yet capacity for these assessments has been low. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is advancing research on integrated regional assessments of climate change that include climate, crop, and economic modeling and analysis. Through AgMIP, regional integrated assessments are increasingly gaining momentum in SSA, and multi-institutional regional research teams (RRTs) centered in East, West, and Southern· Africa are generating new information on climate change impacts and adaptation in selected agricultural systems. The research in Africa is organized into four RRTs and a coordination team. Each of the RRTs in SSA is composed of scientists from the Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) institutions, National Agriculture Research institutes (NARs), and universities consisting of experts in crop and economic modeling, climate, and information technology. Stakeholder involvement to inform specific agricultural systems to be evaluated, key outputs, and the representative agricultural pathways (RAPs), is undertaken at two levels: regional and national, in order to contribute to decision making at these levels. Capacity building for integrated assessment (lA) is a key component that is undertaken continuously through interaction with experts in regional and SSA-wide workshops, and through joint creation of tools. Many students and research affiliates have been identified and entrained as part of capacity building in IA. Bi-monthly updates on scholarly publications in climate change in Africa also serve as a vehicle for knowledge-sharing. With 60 scientists already trained and actively engaged in IA and over 80 getting monthly briefs on the latest information on climate change, a climate-informed community of experts is gradually taking shape in SSA. (See Part 2, Appendices 3-5 in

  4. Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, and end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to

  5. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

    2017-01-01

    As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological

  6. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

    2017-01-01

    As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological

  7. Demonstration of a geostatistical approach to physically consistent downscaling of climate modeling simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Jha, Sanjeev Kumar

    2013-01-01

    A downscaling approach based on multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) is presented. The key concept underlying MPS is to sample spatial patterns from within training images, which can then be used in characterizing the relationship between different variables across multiple scales. The approach is used here to downscale climate variables including skin surface temperature (TSK), soil moisture (SMOIS), and latent heat flux (LH). The performance of the approach is assessed by applying it to data derived from a regional climate model of the Murray-Darling basin in southeast Australia, using model outputs at two spatial resolutions of 50 and 10 km. The data used in this study cover the period from 1985 to 2006, with 1985 to 2005 used for generating the training images that define the relationships of the variables across the different spatial scales. Subsequently, the spatial distributions for the variables in the year 2006 are determined at 10 km resolution using the 50 km resolution data as input. The MPS geostatistical downscaling approach reproduces the spatial distribution of TSK, SMOIS, and LH at 10 km resolution with the correct spatial patterns over different seasons, while providing uncertainty estimates through the use of multiple realizations. The technique has the potential to not only bridge issues of spatial resolution in regional and global climate model simulations but also in feature sharpening in remote sensing applications through image fusion, filling gaps in spatial data, evaluating downscaled variables with available remote sensing images, and aggregating/disaggregating hydrological and groundwater variables for catchment studies.

  8. How to Track Adaptation to Climate Change: A Typology of Approaches for National-Level Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Ford

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The need to track climate change adaptation progress is being increasingly recognized but our ability to do the tracking is constrained by the complex nature of adaptation and the absence of measurable outcomes or indicators by which to judge if and how adaptation is occurring. We developed a typology of approaches by which climate change adaptation can be tracked globally at a national level. On the one hand, outcome-based approaches directly measure adaptation progress and effectiveness with reference to avoided climate change impacts. However, given that full exposure to climate change impacts will not happen for decades, alternative approaches focus on developing indicators or proxies by which adaptation can be monitored. These include systematic measures of adaptation readiness, processes undertaken to advance adaptation, policies and programs implemented to adapt, and measures of the impacts of these policies and programs on changing vulnerability. While these approaches employ various methods and data sources, and identify different components of adaptation progress to track at the national level, they all seek to characterize the current status of adaptation by which progress over time can be monitored. However, there are significant challenges to operationalizing these approaches, including an absence of systematically collected data on adaptation actions and outcomes, underlying difficulties of defining what constitutes "adaptation", and a disconnect between the timescale over which adaptation plays out and the practical need for evaluation to inform policy. Given the development of new adaptation funding streams, it is imperative that tools for monitoring progress are developed and validated for identifying trends and gaps in adaptation response.

  9. Developing integrated approaches to climate change adaptation in rural communities of the Peruvian Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian

    2010-05-01

    Over centuries, Andean communities have developed strategies to cope with climate variability and extremes, such as cold waves or droughts, which can have severe impacts on their welfare. Nevertheless, the rural population, living at altitudes of 3000 to 4000 m asl or even higher, remains highly vulnerable to external stresses, partly because of the extreme living conditions, partly as a consequence of high poverty. Moreover, recent studies indicate that climatic extreme events have increased in frequency in the past years. A Peruvian-Swiss Climate Change Adaptation Programme in Peru (PACC) is currently undertaking strong efforts to understand the links between climatic conditions and local livelihood assets. The goal is to propose viable strategies for adaptation in collaboration with the local population and governments. The program considers three main areas of action, i.e. (i) water resource management; (ii) disaster risk reduction; and (iii) food security. The scientific studies carried out within the programme follow a highly transdisciplinary approach, spanning the whole range from natural and social sciences. Moreover, the scientific Peruvian-Swiss collaboration is closely connected to people and institutions operating at the implementation and political level. In this contribution we report on first results of thematic studies, address critical questions, and outline the potential of integrative research for climate change adaptation in mountain regions in the context of a developing country.

  10. PREFACE: The IARU International Scientific Congress on Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions (10-12 March, Copenhagen, Denmark)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    In an attempt to make the main results from the Congress on Climate Change: Global Risk, Challenges and Decisions available to the public as early as possible, the steering committee decided to publish all talks and posters presented at the Congress in this unique collection of abstracts, in time for the conference Further to the abstract collection the Congress will publish two more products in the near future as described in the following; a synthesis report with the main conclusions, and a book aimed at an academic audience 1 Two Products from the Congress Two products are being produced based on the presentations and discussions at the Congress The first product will be a synthesis report of the main conclusions from the Congress The synthesis report will be ready in June 2009 The synthesis has the purpose of explaining the current state of understanding man-made climate change and what we can do about it to the non-scientist, ie politicians, media and interested citizens The synthesis will build on the messages presented to the Danish Prime Minister, Mr Anders Fogh Rasmussen, host of the COP15, at the closing session of the Congress These six messages were drafted by the Writing Team (see below) based on input from the session chairs and a reading of the 1600+ abstracts submitted to the Congress The second product is a book aimed at an academic audience The book will include more detailed scientific results from all of the sessions and will be published by Cambridge University Press in 2010 It will be an extension and elaboration of the synthesis report Who's writing the Synthesis Report and the Book? A Writing Team consisting of 12 internationally respected scientists from all continents is responsible for developing both products When the synthesis report has been drafted by the Writing Team, it will be discussed in the Scientific Steering Committee of the Congress and reviewed by the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) and a group of experts identified

  11. International project marketing: an introduction to the INPM approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaates, Maria Anne; Tikkanen, Henrikki

    2003-01-01

    Projects are often sold and procured. Therefore this paper reviews recent contributions of the International Network for Project Marketing and Systems Selling (INPM), emphasising the connection between the business relationships of individual projects and the wider environment in which project...... marketing takes place. First, we discuss various definitions of projects and project marketing. Second, we consider the implications of three specific features of project business--discontinuity, uniqueness, and complexity--over multiple projects. Third, we assess three overlapping types of postures...... that project-selling firms can adopt in relation to their marketing activities. Finally, we make some suggestions for practitioners responsible for marketing projects and discuss avenues for future academic work in project marketing....

  12. An international approach to Mission to Planet Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Robert M.; Sadeh, Willy Z.; Tsygichko, Viktor N.

    1992-01-01

    The new international political constellation resulting from the disintegration of the Soviet Union opens up unique opportunities for cooperation in the space arena. Precedents since 1955 indicate a pervasive interest in mutual cooperation to use military reconnaissance and surveillance satellites for space observations to enforce treaty verification and compliance. One of the avenues that offer immediate prospects for fruitful cooperation is the incorporation of the military reconnaissance and surveillance satellite capabilities of both U.S. and Russia into the Mission to Planet Earth. Formation of a United Nations Satellite (UNSAT) fleet drawn from the American and Russian space assets is proposed. The role of UNSAT is to provide world wide monitoring of both military and enviromental activities under the umbrella of the Mission to Planet Earth.

  13. Bioattribution Needs a Coherent International Approach to Improve Global Biosecurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murch, Randall Steven

    2015-01-01

    The forensic investigation of hoax, suspected or actual biological weapons attacks, and bioproliferation activities is recognized by biosecurity-advanced nations as an important pillar in a national biosecurity program. Some nations have taken this seriously; most others have not or are not aware of the potential. When law enforcement and forensic science investigations are performed in a coordinated manner, decisions assigning attribution are informed and accountability is supported through legal and policy decisions and actions. Incorporating public health investigative and tailored scientific assets makes the system even more effective, dynamic, and robust. Perpetrators and enablers must be held at risk of being brought to justice, or through a policy decision resulting in direct action being taken or sanctions imposed. This paper provides a foundation and path forward to establish substantially expanded capability founded on establishing and leveraging national and regional programs and international agreement that attribution is an important component of biosecurity. Specific forward-looking initiatives will be recommended and discussed.

  14. A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on low flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Laaha

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present a new strategy for assessing climate impacts on low flows and droughts. The strategy is termed a three-pillar approach as it combines different sources of information. The first pillar, trend extrapolation, exploits the temporal patterns of observed low flows and extends them into the future. The second pillar, rainfall–runoff projections uses precipitation and temperature scenarios from climate models as an input to rainfall–runoff models to project future low flows. The third pillar, stochastic projections, exploits the temporal patterns of observed precipitation and air temperature and extends them into the future to drive rainfall–runoff projections. These pieces of information are combined by expert judgement based on a synoptic view of data and model outputs, taking the respective uncertainties of the methods into account. The viability of the approach is demonstrated for four example catchments from Austria that represent typical climate conditions in Central Europe. The projections differ in terms of their signs and magnitudes. The degree to which the methods agree depends on the regional climate and the dominant low flow seasonality. In the Alpine region where winter low flows dominate, trend projections and climate scenarios yield consistent projections of increasing low flows, although of different magnitudes. In the region north of the Alps, consistently small changes are projected by all methods. In the regions in the South and Southeast, more pronounced and mostly decreasing trends are projected but there is disagreement in the magnitudes of the projected changes. These results suggest that conclusions drawn from only one pillar of information would be highly uncertain. The three-pillar approach offers a systematic framework of combining different sources of information aiming at more robust projections than obtained from each pillar alone.

  15. INTERNAL BANKING CONTROL AND AUDIT: A COMPARATIVE APPROACH IN THE ROMANIAN BANKING SECTOR

    OpenAIRE

    Adela Socol

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to realize a comparative analysis of theinternal banking control and internal audit, based on the Romanian banking system case.We identify the main differences and similarities between internal control and internalaudit at the level of Romanian banks. Using national regulatory framework and activebanks‘ from Romanian behavior, we find evidence of the risk-based audit approach andthe solid interdependence between the banking internal control and banking internalaud...

  16. Measuring efficiency of international crude oil markets: A multifractality approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niere, H. M.

    2015-01-01

    The three major international crude oil markets are treated as complex systems and their multifractal properties are explored. The study covers daily prices of Brent crude, OPEC reference basket and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude from January 2, 2003 to January 2, 2014. A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) is employed to extract the generalized Hurst exponents in each of the time series. The generalized Hurst exponent is used to measure the degree of multifractality which in turn is used to quantify the efficiency of the three international crude oil markets. To identify whether the source of multifractality is long-range correlations or broad fat-tail distributions, shuffled data and surrogated data corresponding to each of the time series are generated. Shuffled data are obtained by randomizing the order of the price returns data. This will destroy any long-range correlation of the time series. Surrogated data is produced using the Fourier-Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (F-DFA). This is done by randomizing the phases of the price returns data in Fourier space. This will normalize the distribution of the time series. The study found that for the three crude oil markets, there is a strong dependence of the generalized Hurst exponents with respect to the order of fluctuations. This shows that the daily price time series of the markets under study have signs of multifractality. Using the degree of multifractality as a measure of efficiency, the results show that WTI is the most efficient while OPEC is the least efficient market. This implies that OPEC has the highest likelihood to be manipulated among the three markets. This reflects the fact that Brent and WTI is a very competitive market hence, it has a higher level of complexity compared against OPEC, which has a large monopoly power. Comparing with shuffled data and surrogated data, the findings suggest that for all the three crude oil markets, the multifractality is mainly due to long

  17. Climate Change Management Approaches of Cities: A Comparative Study Between Globally Leading and Turkish Metropolitan Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solmaz Filiz Karabag

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have focused on climate change policies and action at the national level, but few have studied policies and action at the city level, especially cities in emerging economies. To address this gap, the present study analyzes the management strategies globally leading cities have developed to address climate change and related issues and compares them with the city strategies of one rapidly urbanizing emerging economy, Turkey. In the analysis, the strategic plans of five leading global cities are compared with those of sixteen Turkish cities. While the leading global cities have specific managerial approaches to mitigate climate change, none of the Turkish cities exhibits any comprehensive approach. Furthermore, while leading global cities modify urban services to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, few Turkish cities adjust any services to address this challenge. Some Turkish cities propose an increased use of renewable energy sources and modification in their transportation system, but the focus in these plans is the current daily needs of their inhabitants. The findings of this study suggest several climate change strategies both for Turkish cities and cities in other developing countries.

  18. Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beggs, Paul John

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology ( IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

  19. Problems and Prospects of Kyoto Protocol Prolongation Till 2020 on the Basis of International Summits on Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kishkan Ekaterina Romanovna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The article studies the research of the results of international summits on climate change held from 2009 to 2014 in Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, Doha, Lima. Today climate change issues are among the most discussed problems in the world, and negative impact of human activities on climate change process is doubtless. The comprehension of importance of climate change problem at the international level led to signing Kyoto protocol. But the forms of international collaboration created by this protocol were not perfect. The contradictions between members of Kyoto protocol were strongly marked in 2009 at the Copenhagen Summit and they were caused by imperfections of Kyoto protocol itself. As a result, among countries, which signed the protocol, some major emitters of greenhouse gases (for instance, USA did not eventually ratify it, and that fact called into question the meaning of Kyoto initiatives on the whole. Since 2010 a nonstop process has been going on creating a new agreement, which would suit all parties. In 2011 the decision of Durban Platform was made. It was ought to be a prolongation of Kyoto initiatives, but the compromise had not yet been found, and the situation is aggravated by economic and political crisis in a number of countries, which put off solution of climate change problems on indefinite term. As a result of survey, the article reveals aspects, which are the basis of main contradictions between member countries, and which need to be taken into consideration when forming a new document in 2015, to avoid repetition of the Kyoto situation.

  20. International Students' Motivation and Learning Approach: A Comparison with Local Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chue, Kah Loong; Nie, Youyan

    2016-01-01

    Psychological factors contribute to motivation and learning for international students as much as teaching strategies. 254 international students and 144 local students enrolled in a private education institute were surveyed regarding their perception of psychological needs support, their motivation and learning approach. The results from this…

  1. Geography teachers’ pedagogical content knowledge and internal didactic transposition of the topic weather formation and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Søren Witzel

    2015-01-01

    This paper represents a part of a PhD project and will put emphasis on eight lower secondary Geography teachers, and how their Pedagogical Content Knowledge might influence their internal didactical transposition of the topic of weather formation and climate change. There are conducted semi......-structured interview with the teachers. An analysis of the results implicates that there is a connection between the teachers’ topic specific Pedagogical Content Knowledge, especially their subject matter knowledge, their educational profile, and how the internal didactic transposition is carried out....

  2. Canadian/US update: The emerging visibility and role of agroforestry in national and international climate change strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    U.S. and Canadian agricultural lands are being targeted to provide more environmental and economic services while at the same time their continued capability to provide these services under potential climate change (CC) is being questioned. Addressing both concerns requires a broader approach of des...

  3. Singular vector decomposition of the internal variability of the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Zadra, Ayrton [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada)

    2012-03-15

    Previous studies have shown that Regional Climate Models (RCM) internal variability (IV) fluctuates in time depending on synoptic events. This study focuses on the physical understanding of episodes with rapid growth of IV. An ensemble of 21 simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, was run over North America using version 5 of the Canadian RCM (CRCM). The IV is quantified in terms of energy of CRCM perturbations with respect to a reference simulation. The working hypothesis is that IV is arising through rapidly growing perturbations developed in dynamically unstable regions. If indeed IV is triggered by the growth of unstable perturbations, a large proportion of the CRCM perturbations must project onto the most unstable singular vectors (SVs). A set of ten SVs was computed to identify the orthogonal set of perturbations that provide the maximum growth with respect to the dry total-energy norm during the course of the CRCM ensemble of simulations. CRCM perturbations were then projected onto the subspace of SVs. The analysis of one episode of rapid growth of IV is presented in detail. It is shown that a large part of the IV growth is explained by initially small-amplitude unstable perturbations represented by the ten leading SVs, the SV subspace accounting for over 70% of the CRCM IV growth in 36 h. The projection on the leading SV at final time is greater than the projection on the remaining SVs and there is a high similarity between the CRCM perturbations and the leading SV after 24-36 h tangent-linear model integration. The vertical structure of perturbations revealed that the baroclinic conversion is the dominant process in IV growth for this particular episode. (orig.)

  4. International Diversification Versus Domestic Diversification: Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization and Stochastic Dominance Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fathi Abid

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies the mean-variance portfolio optimization (PO approach and the stochastic dominance (SD test to examine preferences for international diversification versus domestic diversification from American investors’ viewpoints. Our PO results imply that the domestic diversification strategy dominates the international diversification strategy at a lower risk level and the reverse is true at a higher risk level. Our SD analysis shows that there is no arbitrage opportunity between international and domestic stock markets; domestically diversified portfolios with smaller risk dominate internationally diversified portfolios with larger risk and vice versa; and at the same risk level, there is no difference between the domestically and internationally diversified portfolios. Nonetheless, we cannot find any domestically diversified portfolios that stochastically dominate all internationally diversified portfolios, but we find some internationally diversified portfolios with small risk that dominate all the domestically diversified portfolios.

  5. Greenhouse policy without regrets. A free market approach to the uncertain risks of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adler, J.H. (et al.)

    2000-07-01

    Due to uncertainty about climate change, and human contributions thereto, many policymakers call for 'precautionary' measures to reduce the risk of global warming. Such policies are characterized as 'insurance'. Such insurance against the risks of climate change can be achieved by either lessening the likelihood of change by reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases through a combination of emission controls and carbon sequestration strategies, or by enacting mitigation measures to reduce the possible economic and ecological impact of a potential climate change. No insurance policy is worthwhile if the cost of the premiums exceeds the protection purchased. For greenhouse insurance to be worthwhile, it must either reduce the risks of anthropogenic climate change or reduce the costs of emission reductions designed to achieve the same goal, without imposing off-setting risks, such as those which would result from policies that slow economic growth and technological advance. Currently proposed precautionary measures, such as the Kyoto Protocol, call for government interventions to control greenhouse-gas emissions and suppress the use of carbon-based fuels. Such policies would impose substantial costs and yet do little, if anything, to reduce the risks of climate change. Such policies cannot be characterized as cost-effective greenhouse 'insurance'. Rather than adopt costly regulatory measures that serve to suppress energy use and economic growth, policy makers should seek to eliminate government interventions in the marketplace that obstruct emission reductions and discourage the adoption of lower emission technologies. Such an approach is a 'no regrets' strategy, as these policy recommendations will provide economic and environmental benefits by fostering innovation and economic efficiency whether or not climate change is a serious threat. While fear of global warming may prompt the enactment of these reforms, they

  6. The development and climate nexus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidson, O.; Halsnæs, K.; Huq, S.;

    2003-01-01

    This paper explores an alternative approach to future climate policies in developing countries. Although climate change seems marginal compared to the pressing issues of poverty alleviation and economic development, it is becoming clear that the realisation of development goals may be hampered...... in the climate negotiations. First, elements are presented for an integrated approach to development and climate; second, the approach is elaborated for food and energy security in sub-Saharan Africa; and third, possibilities are outlined for international mechanisms to support such integrated development...

  7. Cement Manufacturing Plant Guidelines: An Approach to Reconciling the Financing of Cement with Climate Change Objectives

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Cement manufacturing is an energy-intensive process, requiring high fuel consumption to operate cement kilns, which in turn generates carbon dioxide (CO2). These Guidelines aim to provide clear and quantitative Minimum Climate Change Performance Criteria necessary for IDB to support projects, as well as guidance on assessing and reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of projects. The purpose of the Cement Manufacturing Plant guidelines is to set forth an approach for the financing of new...

  8. Investigating international new product diffusion speed: A semiparametric approach

    KAUST Repository

    Hartman, Brian M.

    2012-06-01

    Global marketing managers are interested in understanding the speed of the new product diffusion process and how the speed has changed in our ever more technologically advanced and global marketplace. Understanding the process allows firms to forecast the expected rate of return on their new products and develop effective marketing strategies. The most recent major study on this topic [Marketing Science 21 (2002) 97-114] investigated new product diffusions in the United States.We expand upon that study in three important ways. (1) Van den Bulte notes that a similar study is needed in the international context, especially in developing countries. Our study covers four new product diffusions across 31 developed and developing nations from 1980-2004. Our sample accounts for about 80% of the global economic output and 60% of the global population, allowing us to examine more general phenomena. (2) His model contains the implicit assumption that the diffusion speed parameter is constant throughout the diffusion life cycle of a product. Recognizing the likely effects on the speed parameter of recent changes in the marketplace, we model the parameter as a semiparametric function, allowing it the flexibility to change over time. (3) We perform a variable selection to determine that the number of internet users and the consumer price index are strongly associated with the speed of diffusion. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2012.

  9. Analysis and Model Based Assessment of Water Quality in European Mesoscale Forest Catchments with Different Management Strategies (a Climatic Gradient Approach)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavares, Filipa; Schwaerzel, Kai; Nunes, João. Pedro; Feger, Karl-Heinz

    2010-05-01

    Forestry activities affect the environmental conditions of river basins by modifying soil properties and vegetation cover, leading to changes in e.g. runoff generation and routing, water yield or the trophic status of water bodies. Climate change is directly linked to forestry, since site-adapted sustainable forest management can buffer negative climate change impacts in river basins, while practices leading to over-harvesting or increasing wildfires can exacerbate these impacts. While studies relating hydrological processes with forestry practices or climate change have already been conducted, the combined impacts of both are rarely discussed. The main objective of the proposed work is to study the interactions between forest management and climate change and the effects of these upon water fluxes and water quality at the catchment scale, over medium to long-term periods and following an East-West climate gradient. Additional objectives are to increase knowledge about the relations between forest, water quality and soil conservation/degradation; and to improve the modelling of hydrological and matter transport processes in managed forests. The present poster shows a conceptual approach to understand this combined interaction by analysing an East-West climatic gradient (Ukraine-Germany-Portugal), with contrasting forestry practices and climate vulnerabilities. The activities within this workplan, to take place during the period 2010 - 2014, will be developed in close collaboration with several ongoing research projects in the host institution at the Dresden University of Technology (TUD) and in the University of Aveiro (UA). The Institute of Soil Science and Site-Ecology (ISSE) at TUD has an internationally renowned research tradition in forest hydrological topics using methods and findings from various (sub)disciplines in a multidisplinary approach. The measurement and simulation of forest catchments has also been a point of research at the Centre for

  10. Climate-aerosol interactions over the Mediterranean region: a regional coupled modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabat, Pierre; Somot, Samuel; Mallet, Marc

    2015-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is affected by numerous and various aerosols which have a high spatio-temporal variability. These aerosols directly interact with solar and thermal radiation, and indirectly with clouds and atmospheric dynamics. Therefore they can have an important impact on the regional climate. This work, located at the boundary between the ChArMEx and HyMeX programs, considers a coupled regional modeling approach in order to address the questions of the aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions with regards to the climate variability over the Mediterranean. In order to improve the characterization of Mediterranean aerosols, a new interannual monthly climatology of aerosol optical depth has been developed from a blended product based on both satellite-derived and model-simulated datasets. This dataset, available for every regional climate model over the Mediterranean for the 1979-2012 period, has been built to obtain the best possible estimate of the atmospheric aerosol content for the five species at stake (sulfate, black carbon, organic matter, desert dust and sea salt particles). Simulation ensembles, which have been carried out over the 2003-2009 period with and without aerosols, show a major impact on the regional climate. The seasonal cycle and the spatial patterns of the Mediterranean climate are significantly modified, as well as some specific situations such as the heat wave in July 2006 strengthened by the presence of desert dust particles. The essential role of the Mediterranean sea surface temperature is highlighted, and enables to understand the induced changes on air-sea fluxes and the consequences on regional climate. Oceanic convection is also strengthened by aerosols. In addition, the decrease in anthropogenic aerosols observed for more than thirty years is shown to significantly contribute to the observed Euro-Mediterranean climatic trends in terms of surface radiation and temperature. Besides, an interactive aerosol scheme has been developed

  11. Web Service Based Approach to Link Heterogeneous Climate-Energy-Economy Models for Climate Change Mitigation Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Bulavskaya, Tatyana; Niamir, Leila; Dhavala, Kishore

    2016-01-01

    Climate change mitigation analysis requires understanding the causes and identifying the possible alternative actions that could be taken. We linked heterogeneous models that focus on climate, energy, and economy for the purpose of climate change mitigation. The models were originally developed to s

  12. A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B; Tielbörger, Katja

    2012-11-19

    Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these-usually correlative-approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.

  13. Regional Design Approach in Designing Climatic Responsive Administrative Building in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haja Bava Mohidin, Hazrina Binti; Ismail, Alice Sabrina

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to explicate on the study of modern administrative building in Malaysia which portrays regional design approach that conforms to the local context and climate by reviewing two case studies; Perdana Putra (1999) and former Prime Minister's Office (1967). This paper is significant because the country's stature and political statement was symbolized by administrative building as a national icon. In other words, it is also viewed as a cultural object that is closely tied to a particular social context and nation historical moment. Administrative building, therefore, may exhibit various meanings. This paper uses structuralism paradigm and semiotic principles as a methodological approach. This paper is of importance for practicing architects and society in the future as it offers new knowledge and understanding in identifying the suitable climatic consideration that may reflect regionalist design approach in modern administrative building. These elements then may be adopted in designing public buildings in the future with regional values that are important for expressing national culture to symbolize the identity of place and society as well as responsive to climate change.

  14. The diversity of gendered adaptation strategies to climate change of Indian farmers: A feminist intersectional approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravera, Federica; Martín-López, Berta; Pascual, Unai; Drucker, Adam

    2016-12-01

    This paper examines climate change adaptation and gender issues through an application of a feminist intersectional approach. This approach permits the identification of diverse adaptation responses arising from the existence of multiple and fragmented dimensions of identity (including gender) that intersect with power relations to shape situation-specific interactions between farmers and ecosystems. Based on results from contrasting research cases in Bihar and Uttarakhand, India, this paper demonstrates, inter alia, that there are geographically determined gendered preferences and adoption strategies regarding adaptation options and that these are influenced by the socio-ecological context and institutional dynamics. Intersecting identities, such as caste, wealth, age and gender, influence decisions and reveal power dynamics and negotiation within the household and the community, as well as barriers to adaptation among groups. Overall, the findings suggest that a feminist intersectional approach does appear to be useful and worth further exploration in the context of climate change adaptation. In particular, future research could benefit from more emphasis on a nuanced analysis of the intra-gender differences that shape adaptive capacity to climate change.

  15. CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets : Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kitous, Alban; McCollum, David; Méjean, Aurélie; Rao, Shilpa; Turton, Hal; Paroussos, Leonidas; Ashina, Shuichi; Calvin, Katherine; Wada, Kenichi; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use

  16. A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koven, C.D.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Schädel, C.; Bohn, T. J.; Burke, E. J.; Chen, G.; Chen, X.; Ciais, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; MacDougall, A. H.; Marchenko, Sergey S.; McGuire, Anthony; Natali, Susan M.; Nicolsky, D.J.; Olefeldt, David; Peng, S.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Schaefer, Kevin M.; Strauss, J.; Treat, C.C.; Turetsky, M.

    2015-01-01

    We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C °C−1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The

  17. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Irfan Ashraf

    Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence

  18. The Impacts of Climate Change Negotiation on Domestic Industrial Structure and International Competitiveness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Jae Kyu; Kang, Yoon Young [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2000-12-01

    environmental impacts on South Korea. On the whole, the Kyoto Protocol has the potential to cause profound economic changes in individual countries and the wider global economy. From an economic perspective the setting of greenhouse gas emission targets in the Kyoto Protocol was the key decision taken at Kyoto because of the significant implications on economic and trade competitiveness they hold. Now that individual Annex I country targets have been set, the international debate has shifted toward the question of cost effective and environmentally credible implementation of the Protocol and the way of participation of developing countries including South Korea to contribute to the global efforts for greenhouse gas emission reduction. It is believed that the ongoing climate change negotiation could create the structural changes of industries in South Korea. This new situation will bring South Korea to an unfamiliar economic and social environment. (author). 76 refs., 41 figs., 23 tabs.

  19. The Effectiveness of the Geospatial Curriculum Approach on Urban Middle-Level Students' Climate Change Understandings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodzin, Alec M.; Fu, Qiong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change science is a challenging topic for student learning. This quantitative study examined the effectiveness of a geospatial curriculum approach to promote climate change science understandings in an urban school district with eighth-grade students and investigated whether teacher- and student-level factors accounted for students'…

  20. Potential International Approaches to Ownership/Control of Human Genetic Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Catherine

    2016-09-01

    In its governance activities for genetic resources, the international community has adopted various approaches to their ownership, including: free access; common heritage of mankind; intellectual property rights; and state sovereign rights. They have also created systems which combine elements of these approaches. While governance of plant and animal genetic resources is well-established internationally, there has not yet been a clear approach selected for human genetic resources. Based on assessment of the goals which international governance of human genetic resources ought to serve, and the implications for how they will be accessed and utilised, it is argued that common heritage of mankind will be the most appropriate approach to adopt to their ownership/control. It does this with the aim of stimulating discussion in this area and providing a starting point for deeper consideration of how a common heritage of mankind, or similar, regime for human genetic resources would function and be implemented.

  1. Danish Public Diplomacy - A dialogic approach to international relations between states and publics

    OpenAIRE

    Meiner-Jensen,Nicklas

    2012-01-01

    This study deals with the approach to Public Diplomacy in the Danish Foreign Ministry. Public Diplomacy is the international communication between a state and a foreign public that aims to promote the state, its policies and the relationship between the sender and the receiver. The study takes a dialogic approach to the concept that focuses on dialogue, symmetry and credibility. It is the conclusion of the study that a more reciprocal approach to Public Diplomacy is beneficial to the sender-s...

  2. Comparison of two different approaches for internal jugular vein cannulation in surgical patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chudhari L

    1998-07-01

    Full Text Available We compared the anterior approaches of internal jugular venous cannulation in 200 surgical patients, vis-Ã -vis the ease of cannulation and threading, number of attempts required and the incidence of complications following each route. The technique of posterior approach used in this study was found to have a higher rate of success in cannulation and lower rate of complication such as carotid puncture. The posterior approach was also a safe alternate route in obese or short necked patients.

  3. International Façades - CROFT: Climate Related Optimized Façade Technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bilow, M.

    2012-01-01

    "International Façades - CROFT" links the fields of architecture, building services and building physics. It aims at an international diversity in façade design to reduce energy consumption in building design. Current architectural planning practices, such as the International Style, perceive the c

  4. A Spatial Extrapolation Approach to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pina, J.; Tilmant, A.; Anctil, F.

    2015-12-01

    The typical approach to assess climate change impacts on water resources systems is based on a vertical integration/coupling of models: GCM models are run to project future precipitations and temperatures, which are then downscaled and used as inputs to hydrologic models whose outputs are processed by water systems models. From a decision-making point of view, this top-down vertical approach presents some challenges. For example, since the range of uncertainty that can be explored with GCM is limited, researchers are relying on ensembles to enlarge the spread, making the modeling approach even more demanding in terms of computation time and resource. When a particular water system must be analyzed, the question is to know whether this computationally intensive vertical approach is necessary in the first place or if we could extrapolate projections available in neighboring systems to feed the water system model? This would be equivalent to a horizontal approach. The proposed study addresses this question by comparing the performance of a water resource system under future climate conditions using the vertical and horizontal approaches. The methodology is illustrated with the hydropower system of the Gatineau River Basin in Quebec, Canada. Vertically obtained hydrologic projections available in those river basins are extrapolated and used as inputs to a stochastic multireservoir optimization model. Two different extrapolation techniques are tested. The first one simply relies on the ratios between the drainage areas. The second exploits the covariance structure found in historical flow data throughout the region. The analysis of the simulation results reveals that the annual and weekly energy productions of the system derived from the horizontal approach are statistically equivalent to those obtained with the vertical one, regardless of the extrapolation technique used.

  5. Climate change threatens archaeologically significant ice patches: insights into their age, internal structure, mass balance and climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strand Ødegård, Rune; Nesje, Atle; Isaksen, Ketil; Andreassen, Liss Marie; Eiken, Trond; Schwikowski, Margit; Uglietti, Chiara

    2017-01-01

    Despite numerous spectacular archaeological discoveries worldwide related to melting ice patches and the emerging field of glacial archaeology, governing processes related to ice patch development during the Holocene and their sensitivity to climate change are still largely unexplored. Here we present new results from an extensive 6-year (2009-2015) field experiment at the Juvfonne ice patch in Jotunheimen in central southern Norway. Our results show that the ice patch has existed continuously since the late Mesolithic period. Organic-rich layers and carbonaceous aerosols embedded in clear ice show ages spanning from modern at the surface to ca. 7600 cal years BP at the bottom. This is the oldest dating of ice in mainland Norway. The expanding ice patch covered moss mats appearing along the margin of Juvfonne about 2000 years ago. During the study period, the mass balance record showed a strong negative balance, and the annual balance is highly asymmetric over short distances. Snow accumulation is poorly correlated with estimated winter precipitation, and single storm events may contribute significantly to the total winter balance. Snow accumulation is approx. 20 % higher in the frontal area compared to the upper central part of the ice patch. There is sufficient meltwater to bring the permeable snowpack to an isothermal state within a few weeks in early summer. Below the seasonal snowpack, ice temperatures are between -2 and -4 °C. Juvfonne has clear ice stratification of isochronic origin.

  6. How are organisational climate models and patient satisfaction related? A competing value framework approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancarani, Alessandro; Di Mauro, Carmela; Giammanco, Maria Daniela

    2009-12-01

    Patient satisfaction has become an important indicator of process quality inside hospitals. Even so, the improvement of patient satisfaction cannot simply follow from the implementation of new incentives schemes and organisational arrangements; it also depends on hospitals' cultures and climates. This paper studies the impact of alternative models of organisational climate in hospital wards on patient satisfaction. Data gathered from seven public hospitals in Italy are used to explore this relationship. The theoretical approach adopted is the Competing Value Framework which classifies organisations according to their inward or outward focus and according to the importance assigned to control vs. flexibility. Results show that both a model stressing openness, change and innovation and a model emphasising cohesion and workers' morale are positively related to patient satisfaction, while a model based on managerial control is negatively associated with patient satisfaction.

  7. Identifying Silence Climate in Organizations in the Framework of Contemporary Management Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Emre Civelek

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic competition conditions in present day, bring about the consequence for businesses to face varied problems with each passing day. At this point, current management approaches include studies that would shed light on the new problems of businesses. Organizational Silence, a concept that has recently been being voiced in business world, has come up in such context. Organizational silence could be expressed as the employee behavior of keeping silent about certain negativities due to various reasons in an organization. Since knowledge sharing in modern organizations is of capital importance in terms of responding hastily to the changes in a competitive environment, spread of this behavior of employees to organization culture and climate presents a threat of indifference. In this study, the concept of Organizational Silence is defined and the effects of conceived silence climate on management of organizations are discussed.

  8. Bridging Political Expectations and Scientific Limitations in Climate Risk Management. On the Uncertain Effects of International Carbon Sink Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loevbrand, E. [Environmental Science Section, Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Kalmar University, SE-391 82 Kalmar (Sweden)

    2004-12-01

    Despite great advances in carbon cycle research during the past decade the climatic impact of terrestrial ecosystems is still highly uncertain. Although contemporary studies suggest that the terrestrial biosphere has acted as a net sink to atmospheric carbon during the past two decades, the future role of terrestrial carbon pools is most difficult to foresee. When land use change and forestry activities were included into the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the requirements for scientific precision increased significantly. At the same time the political expectations of carbon sequestration as climate mitigation strategy added uncertainties of a social kind to the study of land-atmosphere carbon exchange that have been difficult to address by conventional scientific methods. In this paper I explore how the failure to take into account the effects of direct human activity in scientific projections of future terrestrial carbon storage has resulted in a simplified appreciation of the risks embedded in a global carbon sequestration scheme. I argue that the social limits to scientific analysis must be addressed in order to accommodate these risks in future climate governance and to enable continued scientific authority in the international climate regime.

  9. Teaching a Relational Approach to Climate Change: Working with People and Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearns, F.

    2015-12-01

    In 2010, science and technology studies expert Sheila Jasanoff concluded an article in Science by observing that the scientific community "…has demonstrated that it can learn and change in its methods of representing science to scientists. That ingenuity should now be directed toward building relationships of trust and respect with the global citizens whose future climate science has undertaken to predict and reshape." This kind of statement indicates a large shift in the focus on climate-related work, in a sense concluding that the scientific conclusions are well-established, but there is a human-to-human, relationship-based element of the work that needs attention. At the same time, there is increasing emphasis on transitioning to more participatory models of research, practice, and engagement in climate work, the human relationships that underlie these approaches are rarely explicitly addressed. For example, conflict, a key relational process, is often an inevitable element of engagement in societal processes. Although conflict can lead toward more successful long-term solutions if addressed constructively, dealing with it can be highly uncomfortable on an individual level and is often avoided. Acknowledging the often pivotal role conflict plays in eventual solutions bolsters the notion of complementing current training with a focus on relationship building. Professional development to increase relational capacity is being adopted in fields such as law and medicine; these same approaches are also increasingly relevant for climate practitioners where strong emotions such as grief and anxiety are often present for both practitioners and those they interact with. A framework for teaching and learning to effectively interact in this rich, relational world will be presented.

  10. Collaborative Proposal: Transforming How Climate System Models are Used: A Global, Multi-Resolution Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estep, Donald

    2013-04-15

    Despite the great interest in regional modeling for both weather and climate applications, regional modeling is not yet at the stage that it can be used routinely and effectively for climate modeling of the ocean. The overarching goal of this project is to transform how climate models are used by developing and implementing a robust, efficient, and accurate global approach to regional ocean modeling. To achieve this goal, we will use theoretical and computational means to resolve several basic modeling and algorithmic issues. The first task is to develop techniques for transitioning between parameterized and high-fidelity regional ocean models as the discretization grid transitions from coarse to fine regions. The second task is to develop estimates for the error in scientifically relevant quantities of interest that provide a systematic way to automatically determine where refinement is needed in order to obtain accurate simulations of dynamic and tracer transport in regional ocean models. The third task is to develop efficient, accurate, and robust time-stepping schemes for variable spatial resolution discretizations used in regional ocean models of dynamics and tracer transport. The fourth task is to develop frequency-dependent eddy viscosity finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods and study their performance and effectiveness for simulation of dynamics and tracer transport in regional ocean models. These four projects share common difficulties and will be approach using a common computational and mathematical toolbox. This is a multidisciplinary project involving faculty and postdocs from Colorado State University, Florida State University, and Penn State University along with scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The completion of the tasks listed within the discussion of the four sub-projects will go a long way towards meeting our goal of developing superior regional ocean models that will transform how climate system models are used.

  11. Spatial Spectroscopy Approach for Detection of Internal Defect of Component without Zero-Position Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qizhou Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventional approach to detect the internal defect of a component needs sensors to mark the “zero” positions, which is time-consuming and lowers down the detecting efficiency. In this study, we proposed a novelty approach that uses spatial spectroscopy to detect internal defect of objects without zero-position sensors. Specifically, the spatial variation wave of distance between the detecting source and object surface is analyzed, from which a periodical cycle is determined with the correlative approaches. Additionally, a wavelet method is adopted to reduce the noise of the periodic distance signal. This approach is validated by the ultrasound detection of a component with round cross section and elliptical shape in axis. The experimental results demonstrate that this approach greatly saves the time spent on the judgment of a complete cycle and improves the detecting efficiency of internal defect in the component. The approach can be expanded to other physical methods for noninvasive detection of internal defect, such as optical spectroscopy or X-ray scanning, and it can be used for hybrid medium, such as biological tissues.

  12. Modeling the snow cover in climate studies: 2. The sensitivity to internal snow parameters and interface processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loth, Bettina; Graf, Hans-F.

    1998-05-01

    In order to find an optimal complexity for snow-cover models in climate studies, the influence of single snow processes on both the snow mass balance and the energy fluxes between snow surface and atmosphere has been investigated. Using a sophisticated model, experiments were performed under several different atmospheric and regional conditions (Arctic, midlatitudes, alpine regions). A high simulation quality can be achieved with a multilayered snow-cover model resolving the internal snow processes (cf. part 1,[Loth and Graf, this issue]). Otherwise, large errors can occur, mostly in zones which are of paramount importance for the entire climate dynamics. Owing to simplifications of such a model, the mean energy balance of the snow cover, the turbulent heat fluxes, and the long-wave radiation at the snow surface may alter by between 1 W/m2 and 8 W/m2. The snow-surface temperatures can be systematically changed by about 10 K.

  13. Adaptation to climate change for peace and stability. Strengthening of approaches and instruments as well as promotion of processes to reduce the security risks posed by climate change in the context of climate change adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taenzler, Dennis; Mohns, Till; Ziegenhagen, Katherina [Adelphi Research, Berlin (Germany)

    2013-10-15

    The findings of the project ''Strengthening of approaches and instruments as well as promotion of processes to reduce the security risks posed by climate change in the context of climate change adaptation'' are summarized in this report. The main objective of the project is to outline the potential contribution of adaptation measures to avoid crisis and conflicts caused or exacerbated by water scarcity, food shortages or extreme weather events. As discussed in the conceptual chapter of the report, adaptation can contribute to peace and stability even in conflict-prone areas given that a conflict-sensitive approach is applied. On the basis of a comprehensive regional analysis, we show that adaptation is not yet a prominent element of regional cooperation. To address this gap, we design three regional adaptation roadmaps for the Andes region, Central and South Asia based on desk review of regional processes and programs as well as expert consultations. To ensure that the results of the projects can be considered in national and international policy processes and to strengthen international governance for adaptation we close with a Memorandum for action outlining major principles to support processes for adaptation and peace. [German] Das Vorhaben ''Entwicklung von Ansaetzen und Instrumenten sowie Foerderung von Prozessen zur Eindaemmung der Sicherheitsrisiken des Klimawandels im Rahmen der Anpassung an den Klimawandel'' untersucht den moeglichen Beitrag, den Massnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel fuer Frieden und Stabilitaet leisten koennen. Kernanliegen des Vorhabens ist die Vermeidung von durch den Klimawandel erzeugten oder verstaerkten Sicherheitsrisiken wie Wasserknappheit, Nahrungsmittelengpaesse oder extreme Wetterereignisse. Wie die konzeptionelle Eingangsbetrachtung des Endberichts zeigt, koennen Anpassungsprozesse - auch in konfliktgepraegten Gebieten - einen friedensfoerdernden Beitrag leisten, allerdings bedarf

  14. Internal Absorption and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: A new approach towards Market Size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mushtaq AHMAD

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. In continuation of the efforts to understand the dynamics of internal market, this study proposes Internal Absorption as an instrument for measuring market size for economies which confront large trade deficit over a longer period of time. The study empirically examines the impacts of Internal Absorption along with trade openness and gross private investment on FDI inflows in Pakistan. The ARDL approach to co-integration and ECM based on ARDL is used to test the existence of long run relationships among variables for the period 1976-2009. The result establishes strong positive relationship between Internal Absorption and FDI inflows in short as well as in the long run.Keywords. Foreign direct investment, Internal absorption, Trade openness, Private investment.JEL. F18, F21, F23, O47.

  15. Testing a participatory integrated assessment(PIA) approach to select climate change adaptation actions to enhance wetland sustainability: The case of Poyang Lake region in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG; Li; YIN; Yongyuan; DU; De-Bin

    2015-01-01

    The necessity of mainstreaming climate adaptation strategies or policies into natural resource management plans has been recognized by the UNFCCC.The IPCC AR5 report suggests a growing demand for research to provide information for a deeper and more useful understanding of climate adaptation options,and indicates a lack of effective methods to meet this increasing demand of policymakers.In this respect,a participatory integrated assessment(PIA) approach is presented in this paper to provide an effective means to mainstream wetland climate change adaptation in rural sustainable development strategies,and thus to reduce climate vulnerability and to enhance rural community livelihood.The PIA approach includes a series of research activities required to assess climate impacts on wetland ecosystems,and to prioritize adaptation responses.A range of adaptation options that address key aspects of the wetland ecosystem resilience and concerns are evaluated against community based on sustainable development indicators.The PIA approach is able to identify desirable adaptation options which can then be implemented to improve wetland ecosystem health and to enhance regional sustainable development in a changing climate.For illustration purpose,the PIA was applied in a case study in Poyang Lake(PYL) region,a critical wetland and water ecosystem in central China with important international biodiversity linkages,and a locale for key policy experiments with ecosystem rehabilitation.The PIA was used to facilitate the integration of wetland climate change adaptation in rural sustainable development actions with multi-stakeholders participation.In particular,the case shows how the PIA can be designed and implemented to select effective and practical climate change adaptation options to enhance ecosystem services management and to reduce resource use conflicts and rural poverty.Worked in partnership with multi-stakeholders and assisted with a multi-criteria decision making tool

  16. A New Approach To Inspect the Internal Pressure of Vacuum Switchgear

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUO Li-wen; ZHAO Zi-yu; LI Hai-yu

    2008-01-01

    A new approach is developed to inspect the internal pressure within the vacuum switchgear by no means of magnet-exciting coil, micro-discharge threshold voltage Ud and field emission threshold voltage Ue, all of which are available in laboratory. Experimental results show that internal pressure is a function of the ratio of the micro-discharge threshold voltage to the field emission threshold voltage i.e., Ud/Ue. By this method, the internal pressure in the range of 100-10-4 Pa within vacuum chambers can be inspected without magnet-exciting coil which is required in conventional magnetron discharge method.

  17. Transcatheter closure of patent foramen ovale using the internal jugular venous approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Węglarz, Przemysław; Konarska-Kuszewska, Ewa; Zębik, Tadeusz; Kuszewski, Piotr; Drzewiecka-Gerber, Agnieszka; Motyka, Marek; Ludyga, Tomasz; Bajor, Grzegorz

    2014-01-01

    Transcatheter closure of patent foramen ovale is routinely performed using the transfemoral approach, which is safe and technically easy. Our case represents the rare situation where the procedure needs to be performed using the right internal jugular venous approach. According to our best knowledge this is the first report of a patent foramen ovale closure procedure with access through the internal jugular with necessity to advance the guide wire and transseptal sheath into the left ventricle. Developing alternative techniques of transcatheter patent foramen ovale closure seems to be especially important in rare cases where transfemoral access is unavailable.

  18. From headwater tributaries to international river: observing and adapting to climate variability and change in the Nile basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conway, D. [University of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). School of Development Studies

    2005-07-01

    Egypt is almost totally dependent upon water that originates from the upstream headwaters of the Nile in the humid Ethiopian and East African highlands. Analysis of rainfall and river flow records during the 20th century demonstrates high levels of interannual and interdecadal variability. This is experienced locally and regionally in the headwater regions of the Nile and internationally through its effects on downstream Nile flows in Sudan and Egypt. Examples of climate variability are presented from areas in the basin where it exerts a strong influence on society; the Ethiopian highlands (links with food security), Lake Victoria (management of non-stationary lake levels) and Egypt (exposure to interdecadal variability of Nile flows). These examples reveal adaptations across various scales by individuals and institutions acting alongside other social and economic considerations. Water resources management in the downstream riparian Egypt has involved institutional level reactive adaptations to prolonged periods of low and high Nile flows. Observed responses include the establishment of more robust contingency planning and early warning systems alongside strategic assessment of water use and planning in response to low flows during the 1980s. In the 1990s high flows have enabled Egypt to pursue opportunistic policies to expand irrigation. These policies are embedded in wider socio-political and economic considerations but increase Egypt's exposure and sensitivity to climate driven fluctuations in Nile flows. Analysis of climate change projections for the region shows there is no clear indication of how Nile flows will be affected because of uncertainty about future rainfall patterns in the basin. In many instances the most appropriate entry point for adaptation to climate change will be coping with climate variability and will play out against the certainty of looming national water scarcity in Egypt due to rapid population growth and its possible exacerbation

  19. What influences motivation in Physical Education? A multilevel approach for identifying climate determinants of achievement motivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Niederkofler

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The present research tested the longitudinal and hierarchical influences of students’ climate perception on the development of achievement motives in Physical Education (PE. Students from Switzerland (N = 919; 45 classes; 50.1% female, age: M = 13.2, SD = 0.6 responded to the questionnaire. Perceived climate was measured using the German LASSO scales (Von Saldern & Littig, 1987, namely teacher care, classmate cooperativeness and satisfaction with teaching. To assess sport specific achievement motives (Hope of Success, HS; Fear of Failure, FF, we used a validated German scale from Elbe, Wenhold, and Müller (2005. Multilevel analysis revealed a link between perceived climate on change of students’ motivation in PE. The investigation also identified factors determining motivation decline caused by the classroom environment and teachers. Moreover, results showed significant gender effects on both motives and a significant impact of individual teacher care on the HS. This was also found for individual and aggregated satisfaction with teaching. The latter was significant for FF on both levels. Interestingly, teacher care showed inhibitory effects on both achievement motives. These findings suggest that students in PE may have unique behaviour which requires a different teaching approach than in normal classroom. This describes a specific learning environment in PE classes. Results are discussed based on students’ unique needs and gender effects.

  20. Climate-induced changes in lake ecosystem structure inferred from coupled neo- and paleoecological approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saros, Jasmine E; Stone, Jeffery R; Pederson, Gregory T; Slemmons, Krista E H; Spanbauer, Trisha; Schliep, Anna; Cahl, Douglas; Williamson, Craig E; Engstrom, Daniel R

    2012-10-01

    Over the 20th century, surface water temperatures have increased in many lake ecosystems around the world, but long-term trends in the vertical thermal structure of lakes remain unclear, despite the strong control that thermal stratification exerts on the biological response of lakes to climate change. Here we used both neo- and paleoecological approaches to develop a fossil-based inference model for lake mixing depths and thereby refine understanding of lake thermal structure change. We focused on three common planktonic diatom taxa, the distributions of which previous research suggests might be affected by mixing depth. Comparative lake surveys and growth rate experiments revealed that these species respond to lake thermal structure when nitrogen is sufficient, with species optima ranging from shallower to deeper mixing depths. The diatom-based mixing depth model was applied to sedimentary diatom profiles extending back to 1750 AD in two lakes with moderate nitrate concentrations but differing climate settings. Thermal reconstructions were consistent with expected changes, with shallower mixing depths inferred for an alpine lake where treeline has advanced, and deeper mixing depths inferred for a boreal lake where wind strength has increased. The inference model developed here provides a new tool to expand and refine understanding of climate-induced changes in lake ecosystems.

  1. Four key reasons why climate change adaptation and mitigation need a gendered approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Sarrouy

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is having a growing impact on every human activity, especially on agriculture with altered rainfall patterns and an increased number and intensity of extreme weather events. This article argues that efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change must consider whole food systems – rather than the sole production of food – whilst embracing a conscious gendered approach. Women are the main victims of hunger, but they are also the main actors of global food systems, they greatly contribute to their household’s and community’s wellbeing and detain a rich and often untapped knowledge of food systems. Promoting the role of women in our global food systems enhances the inclusion of criteria mainly valued by women such as resilience, diversity and nutrition, which are paramount for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Photo credit: By OxFam East Africa [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

  2. Climate-Change Problem Solving: Structured Approaches Based on Real-World Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rood, R. B.; Briley, L. J.; Brown, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    Nearly two decades of experience using both seasonal and long-term climate model projections has led to the identification of a set of characteristics of the successful use of climate knowledge in planning and adaptation applications. These characteristics include end-to-end knowledge systems, co-generation or co-production of solution approaches by scientists and practitioners, and tailoring climate model information to the decision-making processes of the specific application. Glisaclimate.org strives to apply the growing body of research into the successful use of climate knowledge using a set of prototype, real-world applications. We describe an online problem-solving environment whose design is based on the characteristics of the successful use of climate predictions and projections by practitioners such as resource managers, urban planners, public health professionals, and policy makers. Design features of Glisaclimate.org include: Based on principles extracted from social science studies of the use of climate information. Anchored on structured templates of problem solving with the identification of common steps in problem solving that are repeated in one application to the next. Informed by interviews with real-world users who desire to incorporate climate-science knowledge into their decision making. Built with open-source tools to allow participation of a community of developers and to facilitate the sustainability of the effort. A structured approach to problem solving is described by four functions of information management. At the foundation of problem solving is the collection of existing information, an inventory stage. Following the collection of the information there are analysis and evaluation stages. In the analysis stage interfaces are described and knowledge gaps are identified. The evaluation stage assesses the quality of the information and the relevance of the information to the specific attributes of the problem. The development of plans

  3. Benthic-Pelagic Coupling in Biogeochemical and Climate Models: Existing Approaches, Recent developments and Roadblocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, Sandra

    2016-04-01

    the benthic-pelagic coupling that accounts for the complex process interplay from the euphotic ocean to the deep sediment. It explores the intensity of the benthic-pelagic coupling across different environments and from the seasonal to the geological timescale. Different modelling approaches of coupling sediment and water column dynamics in regional/global biogeochemical models and (paleo)climate models are critically evaluated and their most important limitations, as well as the implications for our ability to predict the response of the global carbon cycle to past or future perturbations is discussed. Finally, the presentation identifies major roadblocks to the development of new model approaches and highlights how new techniques, new observational and laboratory data, as well as a close interdisciplinary collaboration can overcome these roadblocks.

  4. A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on low flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laaha, Gregor; Parajka, Juraj; Viglione, Alberto; Koffler, Daniel; Haslinger, Klaus; Schöner, Wolfgang; Zehetgruber, Judith; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-09-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a framework for assessing climate impacts on future low flows that combines different sources of information, termed pillars. To illustrate the framework three pillars are chosen: (a) extrapolation of observed low-flow trends into the future, (b) rainfall-runoff projections based on climate scenarios and (c) extrapolation of changing stochastic rainfall characteristics into the future combined with rainfall-runoff modelling. Alternative pillars could be included in the overall framework. The three pillars are combined by expert judgement based on a synoptic view of data, model outputs and process reasoning. The consistency/inconsistency between the pillars is considered an indicator of the certainty/uncertainty of the projections. The viability of the framework is illustrated for four example catchments from Austria that represent typical climate conditions in central Europe. In the Alpine region where winter low flows dominate, trend projections and climate scenarios yield consistently increasing low flows, although of different magnitudes. In the region north of the Alps, consistently small changes are projected by all methods. In the regions in the south and south-east, more pronounced and mostly decreasing trends are projected but there is disagreement in the magnitudes of the projected changes. The process reasons for the consistencies/inconsistencies are discussed. For an Alpine region such as Austria the key to understanding low flows is whether they are controlled by freezing and snowmelt processes, or by the summer moisture deficit associated with evaporation. It is argued that the three-pillar approach offers a systematic framework of combining different sources of information aimed at more robust projections than that obtained from each pillar alone.

  5. Genetic programming approach on evaporation losses and its effect on climate change for Vaipar Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.S.Kasiviswanathan

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is the major problem that every human being is facing over the world. The rise in fossil fuel usage increases the emission of `greenhouse' gases, particularly carbon dioxide continuously into the earth's atmosphere. This causes a rise in the amount of heat from the sun withheld in the earth's atmosphere that would normally radiated back into space. This increase in heat has led to the greenhouse effect, resulting in climate change and rise in temperature along with other climatological parameters directly affects evaporation losses. Accurate modelling and forecasting of these evaporation losses are important for preventing further effects due to climate change. Evaporation is purely non-linear and varying both spatially and temporally. This needs suitable data driven approach to model and should have the ability to take care of all these non-linear behaviour of the system. As such, though there are many empirical and analytical models suggested in the literature for the estimation of evaporation losses, such models should be used with care and caution. Further, difficulties arise in obtaining all the climatological data used in a given analytical or empirical model. Genetic programming (GP is one such technique applied where the non-linearity exist. GP has the flexible mathematical structure which is capable of identifying the non-linear relationship between input and output data sets. Thus, it is easy to construct 'local' models for estimating evaporation losses. The performance of GP model is compared with Thornthwaite method, and results from the study indicate that the GP model performed better than the Thornthwaite method. Forecasting of meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity has been performed using Markovian chain series analysis subsequently it is used to estimate the future evaporation losses using developed GP model. Finally the effect of possible future climate change on

  6. The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the "Medieval Climate Anomaly"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goosse, H.; Crespin, E.; Dubinkina, S.; Loutre, M.F.; Mann, M.E.; Renssen, H.; Sallaz- Damaz, Y.; Shindell, D.

    2012-01-01

    Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950–1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained b

  7. Developing public awareness for climate change: Support from international research programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnes, F.J.; Clements, W.E.

    1998-12-31

    Developing regional and local public awareness and interest in global climate change has been mandated as an important step for increasing the ability for setting policy and managing the response to climate change. Research programs frequently have resources that could help reach regional or national goals for increasing the capacity for responding to climate change. To obtain these resources and target recipients appropriately, research investigators need clear statements of national and regional strategies or priorities as a guide. One such program, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program, has a requirement to develop local or regional education enrichment programs at their observational sites in the central US, the tropical western Pacific (TWP), and on the north slope of alaska. ARM's scientific goals will result in a flow of technical data and as well as technical expertise that can assist with regional needs to increase the technical resources needed to address climate change issues. Details of the ARM education program in the Pacific will be presented.

  8. Reviews of the Norwegian climate policy - a synthesis of four international reports

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Bjoernaes, Christian; Reed, Eilif Ursin

    2011-07-01

    The report is a synthesis of four reviews on the Norwegian climate policy: 1. Environmental performance review of Norway, OECD 2011 2. Energy Policies of IEA Countries, Norway, IEA 2011 3. Economic Survey of Norway, OECD 2010 4. Report on the in-depth review of the fifth national communication of Norway.(auth)

  9. Modelling the International Climate Change Negotiations: A Non-Technical Outline of Model Architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Underdal, Arild

    1997-12-31

    This report discusses in non-technical terms the overall architecture of a model that will be designed to enable the user to (1) explore systematically the political feasibility of alternative policy options and (2) to determine the set of politically feasible solutions in the global climate change negotiations. 25 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Informal networks and resilience to climate change impacts: A collective approach to index insurance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2012-01-01

    This article contributes to the understanding of how to proceed with the development of index-insurance in order to reach extended population coverage with the insurance. The approach is applied to an example from a region in Tanzania. One of the main coping strategies that resource-poor households...... rely on to manage risks related to fluctuations in income flows is risk-sharing in informal networks. An informal network is an ideal way of managing idiosyncratic shocks, but once such shocks become covariate and affect whole communities, as is the case with most climate change impacts, informal...... networks become insufficient since the majority of risk-sharers will be affected by the shock at the same time. This paper proposes a collective approach to index-insurance in which the members of an informal network will be insured as one insurance taker. The paper raises a conceptual argument...

  11. Taking a Multi-pronged Approach to Expand the Reach of Climate Research Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, R.; Unger, M.; Eastburn, T.; Rockwell, A.; Laursen, K. K.; National CenterAtmospheric Research

    2011-12-01

    Recognizing the importance of tailoring content to a variety of audiences, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) takes a multi-pronged approach to expand the reach of climate research results. The center's communications and education and outreach teams leverage Web 1.0 and 2.0 functionality - Google searches, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube - as well as face-to-face interactions and traditional media outlets to ensure climate change messages effectively connect with multiple audiences. Key to these efforts, NCAR seeks to frame messages that emphasize cultural cognition, that is, in a manner that recognizes and resonates with different audiences' values and thus their identities. Among the basic communications approaches NCAR uses to engage the public are one-on-one interactions with the visiting public, which ranges from school children and tourists, to dignitaries and journalists. As an example, the NCAR Journalism Fellowship brings a competitively selected group of internatoinal journalists to NCAR. During a week-long visit and ongoing contact, journalists are provided with a close-up, nuanced view of the science and individuals working on the bigger-picture research that drives climate-related sound bites reported by the press. NCAR provides media training for its scientists, giving them tools and practice in effectively handling interviews for print, Web and radio outlets. The institution hosts public events like "Super Science Saturday," and NCAR staff participate in external activities such as school science fairs, community events and continuing education sessions. In addition to interactive displays that allow the public to "experience" science directly and informally, NCAR develops educational programs and curricula targeted to specific age groups and levels of expertise. We will explore the importance of analogies, images and anecdotes in explaining complicated subjects to such a varied set of audiences, and identify key concepts in simplifying

  12. Approaches to classifying and restoring degraded tropical forests for the anticipated REDD+ climate change mitigation mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasaki N

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Inclusion of improved forest management as a way to enhance carbon sinks in the Copenhagen Accord of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (December 2009 suggests that forest restoration will play a role in global climate change mitigation under the post-Kyoto agreement. Although discussions about restoration strategies often pertain solely to severely degraded tropical forests and invoke only the enrichment planting option, different approaches to restoration are needed to counter the full range of degrees of degradation. We propose approaches for restoration of forests that range from being slightly to severely degraded. Our methods start with ceasing the causes of degradation and letting forests regenerate on their own, progress through active management of natural regeneration in degraded areas to accelerate tree regeneration and growth, and finally include the stage of degradation at which re-planting is necessary. We argue that when the appropriate techniques are employed, forest restoration is cost-effective relative to conventional planting, provides abundant social and ecological co-benefits, and results in the sequestration of substantial amounts of carbon. For forest restoration efforts to succeed, a supportive post-Kyoto agreement is needed as well as appropriate national policies, institutional arrangements, and local participation.

  13. Quantifying wetland–aquifer interactions in a humid subtropical climate region: An integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Sanchez, Itza; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Niu, Jie; Masoner, Jason R.; Cozzarelli, Isabelle M.; McGuire, Jennifer T.

    2013-01-01

    Wetlands are widely recognized as sentinels of global climate change. Long-term monitoring data combined with process-based modeling has the potential to shed light on key processes and how they change over time. This paper reports the development and application of a simple water balance model based on long-term climate, soil, vegetation and hydrological dynamics to quantify groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions at the Norman landfill research site in Oklahoma, USA. Our integrated approach involved model evaluation by means of the following independent measurements: (a) groundwater inflow calculation using stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen (16O, 18O, 1H, 2H); (b) seepage flux measurements in the wetland hyporheic sediment; and (c) pan evaporation measurements on land and in the wetland. The integrated approach was useful for identifying the dominant hydrological processes at the site, including recharge and subsurface flows. Simulated recharge compared well with estimates obtained using isotope methods from previous studies and allowed us to identify specific annual signatures of this important process during the period of study (1997–2007). Similarly, observations of groundwater inflow and outflow rates to and from the wetland using seepage meters and isotope methods were found to be in good agreement with simulation results. Results indicate that subsurface flow components in the system are seasonal and readily respond to rainfall events. The wetland water balance is dominated by local groundwater inputs and regional groundwater flow contributes little to the overall water balance.

  14. Hands-on Approach to Prepare Specialists in Climate Changes Modeling and Analysis Using an Information-Computational Web-GIS Portal "Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulgina, T. M.; Gordova, Y. E.; Martynova, Y. V.

    2014-12-01

    A problem of making education relevant to the workplace tasks is a key problem of higher education in the professional field of environmental sciences. To answer this challenge several new courses for students of "Climatology" and "Meteorology" specialties were developed and implemented at the Tomsk State University, which comprises theoretical knowledge from up-to-date environmental sciences with computational tasks. To organize the educational process we use an open-source course management system Moodle (www.moodle.org). It gave us an opportunity to combine text and multimedia in a theoretical part of educational courses. The hands-on approach is realized through development of innovative trainings which are performed within the information-computational web GIS platform "Climate" (http://climate.scert.ru/). The platform has a set of tools and data bases allowing a researcher to perform climate changes analysis on the selected territory. The tools are also used for students' trainings, which contain practical tasks on climate modeling and climate changes assessment and analysis. Laboratory exercises are covering three topics: "Analysis of regional climate changes"; "Analysis of climate extreme indices on the regional scale"; and "Analysis of future climate". They designed to consolidate students' knowledge of discipline, to instill in them the skills to work independently with large amounts of geophysical data using modern processing and analysis tools of web-GIS platform "Climate" and to train them to present results obtained on laboratory work as reports with the statement of the problem, the results of calculations and logically justified conclusion. Thus, students are engaged in n the use of modern tools of the geophysical data analysis and it cultivates dynamic of their professional learning. The approach can help us to fill in this gap because it is the only approach that offers experience, increases students involvement, advance the use of modern

  15. Sociotechnical Systems Approach: An Internal Assessment of a Blended Doctoral Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erichsen, Elizabeth Anne; DeLorme, Lyn; Connelley, Rosalinda; Okurut-Ibore, Christine; McNamara, Lisa; Aljohani, Obaidalah

    2013-01-01

    An internal assessment was conducted utilizing a sociotechnical systems approach and cultural lens as a means of exploring the dynamics of a blended doctoral program. Blended learning environments were conceived of as sociotechnical systems, and blended programs were defined as programs that utilize multimodal means for the mediation of…

  16. The Development of the International Baccalaureate in Spanish Speaking Countries: A Global Comparative Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, Julia

    2016-01-01

    This paper compares the development of International Baccalaureate (IB) schools in four different settings: Argentine, Chile, Spain and Ecuador. The global comparative approach used in this study, based on actor-network theory (ANT), allows us to analyse the connections and interactions between global actors and the plurality of national,…

  17. A Principles-Based Approach to Teaching International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persons, Obeua

    2014-01-01

    This article discusses the principles-based approach that emphasizes a "why" question by using the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) "Conceptual Framework for Financial Reporting" to question and understand the basis for specific differences between IFRS and U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (U.S.…

  18. The Internalization Theory of Emotions: A Cultural Historical Approach to the Development of Emotions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holodynski, Manfred

    2013-01-01

    Starting with an overview of theoretical approaches to emotion from an activity-oriented stance, this article applies Vygotsky's three general principles of development, sign mediation, and internalization to the development of emotional expressions as a culturally evolved sign system. The possible twofold function of expression signs as a means…

  19. Temperamental, Parental, and Contextual Contributors to Early-Emerging Internalizing Problems: A New Integrative Analysis Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Rosemary S. L.; Hastings, Paul D.; Helm, Jonathan; Serbin, Lisa A.; Etezadi, Jamshid; Stack, Dale M.; Schwartzman, Alex E.; Li, Hai Hong

    2012-01-01

    This study evaluated a comprehensive model of factors associated with internalizing problems (IP) in early childhood, hypothesizing direct, mediated, and moderated pathways linking child temperamental inhibition, maternal overcontrol and rejection, and contextual stressors to IP. In a novel approach, three samples were integrated to form a large…

  20. The Socio-Affective Approach in Education for International Understanding at the Primary Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Rachel

    1978-01-01

    Considers whether a socio-affective approach can be effective in promoting international understanding among pupils in primary grades and suggests learning activities which reinforce personal fulfillment, experience sharing, and empathy. Activities involve students in investigation of group social life, alternative ways of comprehending,…

  1. 10th Jubilee International Conference on Digital Approaches to Cartographic Heritage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Triplat Horvat

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The 10th Jubilee International Conference on Digital Approaches to Cartographic Heritage was held at the Ionian University in Corfu on the Island of Corfu in Greece from May 27 to 29, 2015. The conference was organised by the ICA Commission on Digital Technologies in Cartographic Heritage and the History Department of the Ionian University.

  2. A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lucarini

    2011-01-01

    parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

  3. A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarini, V.; Sarno, S.

    2011-01-01

    general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

  4. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, "Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate" provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...

  5. The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

    2012-01-01

    Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

  6. Introduction to the symposium: responses of organisms to climate change: a synthetic approach to the role of thermal adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sears, Michael W; Angilletta, Michael J

    2011-11-01

    On a global scale, changing climates are affecting ecological systems across multiple levels of biological organization. Moreover, climates are changing at rates unprecedented in recent geological history. Thus, one of the most pressing concerns of the modern era is to understand the biological responses to climate such that society can both adapt and implement measures that attempt to offset the negative impacts of a rapidly changing climate. One crucial question, to understand organismal responses to climate, is whether the ability of organisms to adapt can keep pace with quickly changing environments. To address this question, a syntheses of knowledge from a broad set of biological disciplines will be needed that integrates information from the fields of ecology, behavior, physiology, genetics, and evolution. This symposium assembled a diverse group of scientists from these subdisciplines to present their perspectives regarding the ability of organisms to adapt to changing climates. Specifically, the goals of this symposia were to (1) highlight what each discipline brings to a discussion of organismal responses to climate, (2) to initiate and foster a discussion to break barriers in the transfer of knowledge across disciplines, and (3) to synthesize an approach to address ongoing issues concerning biological responses to climate.

  7. A bottom-up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culley, S.; Noble, S.; Yates, A.; Timbs, M.; Westra, S.; Maier, H. R.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2016-09-01

    Many water resource systems have been designed assuming that the statistical characteristics of future inflows are similar to those of the historical record. This assumption is no longer valid due to large-scale changes in the global climate, potentially causing declines in water resource system performance, or even complete system failure. Upgrading system infrastructure to cope with climate change can require substantial financial outlay, so it might be preferable to optimize existing system performance when possible. This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom-up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes but also enables an assessment of a system's upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. By optimizing system operation under different hydrometeorological states, it is shown that the system can continue to meet its minimum performance requirements for more than three times as many states as it can under current operations. Importantly, a single management policy, no matter how robust, cannot fully utilize existing infrastructure as effectively as an ensemble of flexible management policies that are updated as the climate changes.

  8. Shorebird Migration Patterns in Response to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.

    2010-01-01

    The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.

  9. A clean and green ASEAN. The ASEAN as actor of multilateral environmental policy using the example of the international climate regime; A clean and green ASEAN. Die ASEAN als Akteur multiateraler Umweltpolitik am Beispiel des internationalen Klimaregimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobersalske, Katrin

    2014-07-01

    The book discusses the following issues. Fundamentals, international climate policy, institutional and procedural boundary conditions of ASEAN, compilation of the indicator list, climate policy of ASEAN. The chapter on the climate policy of ASEAN covers the following topics: the question of development of ASEAN, development of a regional environmental policy, the ASEAN as actor in the international climate policy, cooperation in case of trans-border haze pollution, energy cooperation.

  10. Approaches to 30% Energy Savings at the Community Scale in the Hot-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas-Rees, S.; Beal, D.; Martin, E.; Fonorow, K.

    2013-03-01

    BA-PIRC has worked with several community-scale builders within the hot humid climate zone to improve performance of production, or community scale, housing. Tommy Williams Homes (Gainesville, FL), Lifestyle Homes (Melbourne, FL), and Habitat for Humanity (various locations, FL) have all been continuous partners of the BA Program and are the subjects of this report to document achievement of the Building America goal of 30% whole house energy savings packages adopted at the community scale. The scope of this report is to demonstrate achievement of these goals though the documentation of production-scale homes built cost-effectively at the community scale, and modeled to reduce whole-house energy use by 30% in the Hot Humid climate region. Key aspects of this research include determining how to evolve existing energy efficiency packages to produce replicable target savings, identifying what builders' technical assistance needs are for implementation and working with them to create sustainable quality assurance mechanisms, and documenting the commercial viability through neutral cost analysis and market acceptance. This report documents certain barriers builders overcame and the approaches they implemented in order to accomplish Building America (BA) Program goals that have not already been documented in previous reports.

  11. International trade in livestock and livestock products: the need for a commodity-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, G R; Tambi, E N; Hargreaves, S K; Leyland, T J; Catley, A P; van 't Klooster, G G M; Penrith, M L

    2004-10-02

    International animal health standards designed to facilitate safe trade in livestock and livestock products are set by the Office International des Epizooties (OIE) under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and documented in the OIE's Terrestrial Animal Health Code. A core principle of the Code is the need for countries to eradicate important transboundary animal diseases (TADs) to reduce the risk of exporting disease to trading partners. International food safety standards are set by the Codex Alimentarius Commission, administered jointly by the World Health Organization and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The goal of global eradication of most TADs is unachievable for the foreseeable future, other than in the case of rinderpest, and this prevents many countries, especially developing nations, from engaging in international trade under WTO rules. This paper proposes an alternative, commodity-based approach to the formulation of international animal health and food safety standards, based on the fact that different commodities pose very different risks when it comes to the spread of human and animal pathogens. Therefore, the risk mitigation strategies required are equally commodity-dependent. The authors conclude that more focused commodity standards would improve access to international markets for all countries, especially those in the developing world. For this objective to be realised, credible and independent certification is required.

  12. Climatic changes: explicative guide of international agreements; Changements climatiques: guide explicatif des accords internationaux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    The following themes of the negotiation in the United Nations Convention framework, on the climatic changes and the kyoto protocol are taken into account: the observation, the information communication, the policies and the measures, the developing countries, the flexibility mechanisms, the soils utilizations and the regime evolution. For each theme the document recalls quickly how the theme is detailed in the Convention and in the Protocol, it presents then the decisions and the adopted rules and defines the agreements contain, in terms of challenges and implication in the protocol implementation. (A.L.B.)

  13. The Climate Change Crisis as an International Civil Rights Issue: Forging an Alliance Between Science, Activism, and Progressive Social Movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, B. J.; Driver, S.

    2011-12-01

    If our scientific community wants to make real progress on the climate change and environmental crisis we must be willing to side with and fight for the oppressed. The national and international communities most ready to act - those hit hardest by the real impact of climate change in their day-to-day lives - need the political leadership of and a living, organic connection with scientists who are prepared to tell the truth and act on the truth of our science. A new generation of scientist-activist leaders and this strategic and mutually beneficial alliance with the oppressed will be necessary to wage an international, intransigent fight to enact and implement the social, political, and economic policies needed to mitigate the damage already done and prevent future environmental and human catastrophe. In the statement BAMN distributed to last year's Fall AGU conference we said, "there will be no shortage of mass struggle in the next period of history." This spring we saw the absolutely awe-inspiring social upheavals in North Africa and the Middle East in the form of waves of mass demonstrations in country after country. Many of those struggles, with demands for real democracy, for jobs and economic opportunities, for improved living conditions, continue to this day. In virtually every instance, these popular and progressive social movements have been led by youth: middle school, high school and college students. In the US and Europe we have seen the spread of student-led struggle around the defense of K-12 public education and on college campuses in defense of various programs, opportunities, and the character of the educational experience. The most dynamic force in these struggles has been the Latina/o, black, other underrepresented minority and immigrant youth who refuse to accept permanent second-class citizenship and a future devoid of hope and opportunity. We will discuss our experience as a youth-led civil rights organization presenting the issues of climate

  14. Approaches to 30 Percent Energy Savings at the Community Scale in the Hot-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas-Rees, S. [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Beal, D. [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Martin, E. [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States)

    2013-03-01

    BA-PIRC has worked with several community-scale builders within the hot humid climate zone to improve performance of production, or community scale, housing. Tommy Williams Homes (Gainesville, FL), Lifestyle Homes (Melbourne, FL), and Habitat for Humanity (various locations, FL) have all been continuous partners of the Building America program and are the subjects of this report to document achievement of the Building America goal of 30% whole house energy savings packages adopted at the community scale. Key aspects of this research include determining how to evolve existing energy efficiency packages to produce replicable target savings, identifying what builders' technical assistance needs are for implementation and working with them to create sustainable quality assurance mechanisms, and documenting the commercial viability through neutral cost analysis and market acceptance. This report documents certain barriers builders overcame and the approaches they implemented in order to accomplish Building America (BA) Program goals that have not already been documented in previous reports.

  15. Analytical model of a solarium for cold climate - a new approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yadav, Y.P.; Tiwari, G.N.

    1988-01-01

    A new approach has been evolved for analysing the thermal performance of a solarium useful in a cold climate. So as to trap the maximum solar radiation, the concept of glass windows (with movable insulation) in both the east and west walls of the sun space, besides in its south facing wall and with the roof made of glass, has been introduced. Carrying out a transient analysis, explicit expressions for the temperatures of the sun space, the blackened absorbing surface of the water wall, the water itself, the living space and the isothermal masses have been developed as a function of time. These temperatures are required for the evaluation of the thermal energy taken in by the water wall, the heat flux entering the sun space and living space and the thermal energy distributed over the isothermal masses lying in the living space.

  16. Bird Migration Under Climate Change - A Mechanistic Approach Using Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.; Blattner, Tim; Messmer, Peter

    2010-01-01

    The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of

  17. CO2 emissions mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kitous, Alban; McCollum, David; Mejean, Aurelie; Rao, Shilpa; Turton, Hal; Paroussos, Leonidas; Ashina, Shuichi; Calvin, Katherine V.; Wada, Kenichi; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher and decrease with mitigation. A first deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes global emission targets until 2030, in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges and regionally-specific low-carbon technology targets. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger - twice and more - than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because leakage and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.

  18. Generating synthetic wave climates for coastal modelling: a linear mixed modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, C.; Lark, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    Numerical coastline morphological evolution models require wave climate properties to drive morphological change through time. Wave climate properties (typically wave height, period and direction) may be temporally fixed, culled from real wave buoy data, or allowed to vary in some way defined by a Gaussian or other pdf. However, to examine sensitivity of coastline morphologies to wave climate change, it seems desirable to be able to modify wave climate time series from a current to some new state along a trajectory, but in a way consistent with, or initially conditioned by, the properties of existing data, or to generate fully synthetic data sets with realistic time series properties. For example, mean or significant wave height time series may have underlying periodicities, as revealed in numerous analyses of wave data. Our motivation is to develop a simple methodology to generate synthetic wave climate time series that can change in some stochastic way through time. We wish to use such time series in a coastline evolution model to test sensitivities of coastal landforms to changes in wave climate over decadal and centennial scales. We have worked initially on time series of significant wave height, based on data from a Waverider III buoy located off the coast of Yorkshire, England. The statistical framework for the simulation is the linear mixed model. The target variable, perhaps after transformation (Box-Cox), is modelled as a multivariate Gaussian, the mean modelled as a function of a fixed effect, and two random components, one of which is independently and identically distributed (iid) and the second of which is temporally correlated. The model was fitted to the data by likelihood methods. We considered the option of a periodic mean, the period either fixed (e.g. at 12 months) or estimated from the data. We considered two possible correlation structures for the second random effect. In one the correlation decays exponentially with time. In the second

  19. Classical surgical approach and treatment with clips of extracranial internal carotid artery berry aneurysm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haris Vukas

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: We can define extracranial carotid artery aneurysm (ECAA as bulb dilatation greater than 200% of the diameter of the internal carotid artery (ICA or in a case of common carotid artery (CCA greater than 150% of the diameter. Surgical intervention is required for the treatment of this disease.Case report: This study presents an open vascular surgical procedure to resolve ECAA. We report a case of 61 years old woman with an extracranial internal carotid artery berry aneurysm, presented with a headache and dizziness when turning the head aside. Classic open surgery was performed and the lumen of berry aneurysm was separated with three clips from the lumen of ICA.Conclusions: The open surgical approach is the method of choice for the treatment of extracranial internal carotid artery pathological conditions.

  20. Final Technical Report: "Representing Endogenous Technological Change in Climate Policy Models: General Equilibrium Approaches"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ian Sue Wing

    2006-04-18

    from Kyoto and the administration's announcement of a voluntary target based on emission intensity made it apparent that the degree of emission leakage to developing countries would depend on (i) the form of the emission limit set by developed countries and (ii) the incentives faced by developing nations to accede to an international climate regime. This realization led to synergistic research on the properties of intensity targets under uncertainty, which resulted in two theoretical studies, one which has been published (A.1) and the other which is currently in review (C.5).

  1. On the Sustainable Development Principle of International Climate Change Law%论气候变化国际法的可持续发展原则

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    龚微; 朱嫣然; 刘美麟

    2011-01-01

    可持续发展原则在气候变化国际法当中被广泛使用,但是缺乏准确定义,其内涵也不明确。气候变化国际法的可持续发展原则应当包括气侯正义、环境与发展一体化等内涵。这些内涵在今后被确立可以帮助气候变化国际法完善对发展的认识,加深对正义的了解,促进气候变化国际法更和谐。%Sustainable Development Principle has been used widely in International Climate Change. Law, but there is no widely accepted definition and clear contents. The contents of the principle in International Climate Change Law should include climate justice,integration of environment and development. They can help International Climate Change Law improve the understanding of development, deepen the knowledge of justice and harmonize the International Climate Change Law

  2. Future Earth -- New Approaches to address Climate Change and Sustainability in the MENA Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Manfred; Abu Alhaija, Rana

    2016-04-01

    Interactions and feedbacks between rapidly increasing multiple pressures on water, energy and food security drive social-ecological systems at multiple scales towards critical thresholds in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA Region). These pressures, including climate change, the growing demand on resources and resource degradation, urbanization and globalization, cause unprecedented challenges for countries and communities in the region. Responding to these challenges requires integrated science and a closer relationship with policy makers and stakeholders. Future Earth has been designed to respond to these urgent needs. In order to pursue such objectives, Future Earth is becoming the host organization for some 23 programs that were previously run under four global environmental change programmes, DIVERSITAS, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Some further projects arose out of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP). It thus brings together a wide spectrum of expertise and knowledge that will be instrumental in tackling urgent problems in the MENA region and the wider Mediterranean Basin. Future Earth is being administered by a globally distributed secretariat that also includes a series of Regional Centers, which will be the nuclei for the development of new regional networks. The Cyprus Institute in Nicosia, Cyprus (CyI; www.cyi.ac.cy) is hosting the Regional Center for the MENA Region. The CyI is a non-profit research and post-graduate education institution with a strong scientific and technological orientation and a distinctive regional, Eastern Mediterranean scope. Cyprus at the crossroads of three continents and open to all nations in the region provides excellent conditions for advancing the research agenda of Future Earth in the MENA Region. Given the recent and ongoing major political

  3. Forecasting South African containers for international trade: A commodity-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan H. Havenga

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The most common approach used internationally for forecasting international trade containers is models based on the correlation between container trade and economic growth. While the strong historical correlation is indisputable, this paper argues that there will be saturation in the propensity to containerise as all the suitable volumes of the underlying commodities shift to containers over time. In addition, the link between freight transport and GDP will decouple as more sustainable approaches to economic development, and therefore freight transport, are necessitated by economic and environmental realities. A commodity-based model, taking into account the underlying drivers of containerisation, is proposed here as a more realistic forecast of container demand. This could have a material impact on how large-scale investment decisions are directed.

  4. Are Chinese University Students More Likely to Exhibit a Surface Approach to Learning than Other International Students in Finland?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, Yusuke; Pyhältö, Kirsi; Lindblom-Ylänne, Sari

    2014-01-01

    This article is based on a study which investigated whether Chinese international students at a university in Finland are more likely to rely on a Surface approach to learning and dismiss a Deep approach than are other international students in the same university educational context. In responding to a survey, students' scores with respect to the…

  5. An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Velázquez

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e., lumped, semi distributed and distributed models. The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany. Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by global climate models over a reference (1971–2000 and a future (2041–2070 period. The results show that, for our hydrological model ensemble, the choice of model strongly affects the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model.

  6. Assessing Foundation Insulation Strategies for the 2012 International Energy Conservation Code in Cold Climate New Home Construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    VonThoma, E.; Ojczyk, C.; Mosiman, G.

    2013-04-01

    While the International Energy Conservation Code 2012 (IECC 2012) has been adopted at a national level, only two cold climate states have adopted it as their new home energy code. Understanding the resistance to adoption is important in assisting more states accept the code and engage deep energy strategies nationwide. This three-part assessment by the NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership was focused on foundation insulation R-values for cold climates and the design, construction, and performance implications. In Part 1 a literature review and attendance at stakeholder meetings held in Minnesota were used to assess general stakeholder interest and concerns regarding proposed code changes. Part 2 includes drawings of robust foundation insulation systems that were presented at one Minnesota stakeholder meeting to address critical issues and concerns for adopting best practice strategies. In Part 3 a sampling of builders participated in a telephone interview to gain baseline knowledge on insulation systems used to meet the current energy code and how the same builders propose to meet the new proposed code.

  7. Internal Roof and Attic Thermal Radiation Control Retrofit Strategies for Cooling-Dominated Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fallahi, A. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems (CSE), Boston, MA (United States); Durschlag, H. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems (CSE), Boston, MA (United States); Elliott, D. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems (CSE), Boston, MA (United States); Hartsough, J. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems (CSE), Boston, MA (United States); Shukla, N. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems (CSE), Boston, MA (United States); Kosny, J. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems (CSE), Boston, MA (United States)

    2013-12-01

    This project evaluates the cooling energy savings and cost effectiveness of radiation control retrofit strategies for residential attics in U.S. cooling-dominated climates. Usually, in residential applications, radiation control retrofit strategies are applied below the roof deck or on top of the attic floor insulation. They offer an alternative option to the addition of conventional bulkinsulation such as fiberglass or cellulose insulation. Radiation control is a potentially low-cost energy efficiency retrofit strategy that does not require significant changes to existing homes. In this project, two groups of low-cost radiation control strategies were evaluated for southern U.S. applications. One uses a radiant barrier composed of two aluminum foils combined with an enclosedreflective air space and the second uses spray-applied interior radiation control coatings (IRCC).

  8. Internal Roof and Attic Thermal Radiation Control Retrofit Strategies for Cooling-Dominated Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fallahi, A. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems, Boston, MA (United States); Duraschlag, H. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems, Boston, MA (United States); Elliott, D. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems, Boston, MA (United States); Hartsough, J. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems, Boston, MA (United States); Shukla, N. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems, Boston, MA (United States); Kosny, J. [Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems, Boston, MA (United States)

    2013-12-01

    This project evaluates the cooling energy savings and cost effectiveness of radiation control retrofit strategies for residential attics in U.S. cooling-dominated climates. Usually, in residential applications, radiation control retrofit strategies are applied below the roof deck or on top of the attic floor insulation. They offer an alternative option to the addition of conventional bulk insulation such as fiberglass or cellulose insulation. Radiation control is a potentially low-cost energy efficiency retrofit strategy that does not require significant changes to existing homes. In this project, two groups of low-cost radiation control strategies were evaluated for southern U.S. applications. One uses a radiant barrier composed of two aluminum foils combined with an enclosed reflective air space and the second uses spray-applied interior radiation control coatings (IRCC).

  9. Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara

    2009-05-01

    The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

  10. Information Theoretic Approaches to Rapid Discovery of Relationships in Large Climate Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knuth, Kevin H.; Rossow, William B.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Mutual information as the asymptotic Bayesian measure of independence is an excellent starting point for investigating the existence of possible relationships among climate-relevant variables in large data sets, As mutual information is a nonlinear function of of its arguments, it is not beholden to the assumption of a linear relationship between the variables in question and can reveal features missed in linear correlation analyses. However, as mutual information is symmetric in its arguments, it only has the ability to reveal the probability that two variables are related. it provides no information as to how they are related; specifically, causal interactions or a relation based on a common cause cannot be detected. For this reason we also investigate the utility of a related quantity called the transfer entropy. The transfer entropy can be written as a difference between mutual informations and has the capability to reveal whether and how the variables are causally related. The application of these information theoretic measures is rested on some familiar examples using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) to identify relation between global cloud cover and other variables, including equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (SST), over seasonal and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles.

  11. Should we include avoidance of deforestation in the international response to climate change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlamadinger, B. [Joanneum Research, Graz (Austria); Ciccarese, L. [Italian Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services, Rome (Italy); Dutschke, M. [Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Hamburg (Germany); Fearnside, P.M. [Department of Ecology, National Institute for Amazonian Research INPA, Belem, Para (Brazil); Brown, S. [Winrock International, Little Rock, Arkansas (United States); Murdiyarso, D. [Center for International Forestry Research, Jakarta (Indonesia)

    2005-07-01

    Global deforestation and forest degradation rates have a significant impact on the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that during the 1990's 16.1 million hectares per year were affected by deforestation, most of them in the tropics. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated that, for the same period, the contribution of land-use changes to GHG accumulation into the atmosphere was 1.6{+-}0.8 Giga (1G=109) tonnes of carbon per year, a quantity that corresponds to 25% of the total annual global emissions of GHGs. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in recognising climate change as a serious threat, urged counties to take up measures to enhance and conserve ecosystems such as forests that act as reservoirs and sinks of GHGs. The Kyoto Protocol (KP), adopted in 1997, complements the UNFCCC by providing an enforceable agreement with quantitative targets for reducing GHG emissions. For fulfilling their emission-limitation commitments under the KP, industrialized countries (listed in the KP's Annex I) can use land-based activities, such as reducing deforestation, establishing new forests (afforestation and reforestation) and other vegetation types, managing agricultural and forestlands in a way that the 'carbon sink' is maximized. Annex I countries may also claim credit for carbon sequestration in developing countries by afforestation and reforestation (AR) through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), one of the 'Kyoto Mechanisms' that allow countries to achieve reductions where it is economically efficient to do so. For the period 2008-2012, forestry activities under the CDM have been restricted to afforestation and reforestation on areas that were not forested in 1990. In addition, CDM projects must lead to emission reductions or net carbon uptake additional to what would have occurred without the CDM funding

  12. Development of sustainable stormwater management using simulation-optimization approach under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yu-ru; Tung, Ching-pin

    2015-04-01

    Climate change had altered the hydrological processes globally with result that the extreme events have an increase in both the magnitude and the frequency. In particular, the high intensity rainfall cause the severe flooding had significantly impacted on human life and property in recently year. The traditional facility to handle runoff is the drainage system which is designed in accordance with the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve. However, the flooding occurs once the drainage capacity is overwhelmed by excess stormwater. Thus the general solution are that expanding and upgrading the existing drainage system or increasing the design return period for new development areas to reduce flooding. Besides, another technique which is low impact development(LID) is regarded as more sustainable solution for stormwater management. The concept of LID is to control stormwater at the source by decentralized practices and mimic the predevelopment hydrologic conditions including storage, retention and high rate of infiltration. In contrast to conventional drainage system aims to move runoff away as quickly as possible, the LID approach attempts to keep runoff on site to reduce peak and volume of flow. The purpose of this research is to identify the most cost-effective measures for stormwater management after the analysis of the strategies combining drainage system and LID on various land use planning. The case study is a rural community in Hsinchu in Taiwan, and having residential areas, farms and pond. It is assumed that two land use layout are planned and drainage system are designed for 2-,and 5-year return period events. On the other hand, three LID technologies, namely green roof, porous pavement and rain barrel, are selected to place in the scenario of the drainage system for 2-year return period event, and the minimal peak flow is target to optimize LID placement by simulated annealing algorithm. Moreover, the design storm under climate change are derived from

  13. Net Influence of an Internally Generated Guasi-biennial Oscillation on Modelled Stratospheric Climate and Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Oman, Luke David; Newman, Paul A.; Song, InSun

    2013-01-01

    A Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM) simulation with strong tropical non-orographic gravity wave drag (GWD) is compared to an otherwise identical simulation with near-zero tropical non-orographic GWD. The GEOSCCM generates a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) zonal wind signal in response to a tropical peak in GWD that resembles the zonal and climatological mean precipitation field. The modelled QBO has a frequency and amplitude that closely resembles observations. As expected, the modelled QBO improves the simulation of tropical zonal winds and enhances tropical and subtropical stratospheric variability. Also, inclusion of the QBO slows the meridional overturning circulation, resulting in a generally older stratospheric mean age of air. Slowing of the overturning circulation, changes in stratospheric temperature and enhanced subtropical mixing all affect the annual mean distributions of ozone, methane and nitrous oxide. Furthermore, the modelled QBO enhances polar stratospheric variability in winter. Because tropical zonal winds are easterly in the simulation without a QBO, there is a relative increase in tropical zonal winds in the simulation with a QBO. Extratropical differences between the simulations with and without a QBO thus reflect the westerly shift in tropical zonal winds: a relative strengthening of the polar stratospheric jet, polar stratospheric cooling and a weak reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

  14. Principal component approach in variance component estimation for international sire evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakobsen Jette

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The dairy cattle breeding industry is a highly globalized business, which needs internationally comparable and reliable breeding values of sires. The international Bull Evaluation Service, Interbull, was established in 1983 to respond to this need. Currently, Interbull performs multiple-trait across country evaluations (MACE for several traits and breeds in dairy cattle and provides international breeding values to its member countries. Estimating parameters for MACE is challenging since the structure of datasets and conventional use of multiple-trait models easily result in over-parameterized genetic covariance matrices. The number of parameters to be estimated can be reduced by taking into account only the leading principal components of the traits considered. For MACE, this is readily implemented in a random regression model. Methods This article compares two principal component approaches to estimate variance components for MACE using real datasets. The methods tested were a REML approach that directly estimates the genetic principal components (direct PC and the so-called bottom-up REML approach (bottom-up PC, in which traits are sequentially added to the analysis and the statistically significant genetic principal components are retained. Furthermore, this article evaluates the utility of the bottom-up PC approach to determine the appropriate rank of the (covariance matrix. Results Our study demonstrates the usefulness of both approaches and shows that they can be applied to large multi-country models considering all concerned countries simultaneously. These strategies can thus replace the current practice of estimating the covariance components required through a series of analyses involving selected subsets of traits. Our results support the importance of using the appropriate rank in the genetic (covariance matrix. Using too low a rank resulted in biased parameter estimates, whereas too high a rank did not result in

  15. Eco-innovation, international trade, WTO and climate: Key issues for an ecological industrial policy. Documentation of a workshop on March 12, 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoppe, Jutta; Kahlenborn, Walter [Adelphi Research, Berlin (Germany); Gather, Corinna (eds.) [Umweltbundesamt, Dessau (Germany)

    2009-01-15

    Within the meeting of the German Federal Environment Agency (Dessau, Federal Republic of Germany) and the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Natural Safety (Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany) at 12th March, 2008, the following reports were held: (a) Trade Policy and Climate Change - An overview from the perspective of an ecological industrial policy (Jutta Hoppe et al.); (b) Kyoto, Post-Kyoto and the WTO (Malena Sell); (c) Climate change, trade and competitiveness (Aaron Cosby, John Drexhage); (d) Unilateral climate policy and implications for trade policy (Susanne Droege); (e) Trade in environmental goods and services relevant to climate-change mitigation: Opportunities and challenges for new industries in the European Union (Mahesh Sugathan); (f) The relevance of WTO activities and rules in the climate change debate (Ludivine Tamiotti); (g) Like-products, energy standards and labelling (Roland Ismer); (h) EC Trade policy and climate challenges: An overview of EC trade policy approaches to climate change (Ditte Juul-Joergensen); (i) Opportunities and constraints for an integrated European climate and trade policy (Ulrich Hoffmann); (j) Climate change, eco-innovation, and EU trade policy: a critical assessment (Daniel Mittler); (k) Resume: Key Issues for an Ecological Industrial policy (Jutta Hoppe, Walter Kahlenborn).

  16. Integrated Approach To An Efficiency Assessment Of Self-Organizing Textile Materials Packages In The Subnormal Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodicheva, M.; Abramov, A.; Kanatnikova, P.; Kanatnikov, N.; Kharlamov, G.

    2017-01-01

    Design of heat-shielding clothes for subnormal climate still remains one of the unsolved problems of complex security. The solution is connected with the use of the self-organizing textile materials. Reasoning of textile package optimal selection requires the development of a comprehensive approach combining theoretical and experimental researches.

  17. The Impact of Surplus Sharing on the Stability of International Climate Agreements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weikard, H.P.; Altamirano-Cabrera, J.C. [Department of Social Sciences, Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen (Netherlands); Finus, M. [Department of Economics, Hagen University, Hagen (Germany)

    2004-06-01

    This paper analyses stability of coalitions for greenhouse gas abatement for different sharing rules applied to the gains from co-operation. We use a 12-regions model designed to examine internal and external stability of coalitions (STACO). We compare different sharing rules like, for example, grandfathering (i.e. sharing proportional to emissions) and a number of so-called equitable rules like, for example, sharing proportional to population or according to historical responsibilities. Due to strong free-rider incentives we find only small stable coalitions for all sharing rules examined. As a general pattern we observe that coalitions consist of regions with low marginal abatement costs, which are attractive partners in any coalition, and regions which have the highest claims according to the respective sharing rule. Furthermore, we find that a grandfathering scheme leads to the largest and - in terms of greenhouse gas abatement - most successful coalition, while many of the equitable rules achieve very little.

  18. Internal Insulation of Masonry Walls with Wooden Floor Beams in Northern Humid Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morelli, Martin; Scheffler, Gregor Albrecht; Nielsen, Toke Rammer

    2010-01-01

    Multi-story buildings in Denmark from 1850–1950 are built with masonry walls and wooden floor beams. Large energy savings can be achieved by insulating the facades. Often interior insulation is the only possibility in order to keep the appearance of the external facade. The internal insulation...... reduces the drying potential of the wall, which might lead to moisture problems in the beam ends embedded in the masonry due to absorption of driving rain. This paper describes a solution to avoid the moisture problems and still achieve large energy savings. The thermal analyses are made in thermal...... simulation programs for two dimensions and three dimensions. The moisture analyses are made by a twodimensional simulation of the coupled heat, air, and moisture transport. The results show that leaving an uninsulated part of the wall above and below the floor division could solve the moisture problem...

  19. FAIR 1.0 (Framework to Assess International Regimes for differentiation of commitments): An interactive model to explore options for differentiation of future commitments in international climate policy making. User documentation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elzen MGJ den; Berk MM; Both S; Faber A; Oostenrijk R; CIM

    2001-01-01

    This report contains the model documentation and user instructions of the FAIR model (Framework to Assess International Regimes for differentiation of commitments). FAIR is an interactive - scanner-type - computer model to quantitatively explore a range of alternative climate policy options for inte

  20. An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Velázquez

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models. The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany. Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971–2000 and a future (2041–2070 periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.

  1. Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalm, Donelle; Epps, Clinton W; Rodhouse, Thomas J; Monahan, William B; Castillo, Jessica A; Ray, Chris; Jeffress, Mackenzie R

    2016-04-01

    Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and

  2. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  3. Linking soil chemistry, treeline shifts and climate change: scenario modeling using an experimental approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavris, Christian; Furrer, Gerhard; Anderson, Susanne; Blum, Alex; Wells, Aaron; Dahms, Dennis; Egli, Markus

    2014-05-01

    Climate change and global warming have a strong influence on the landscape development. As cold areas become warmer, both flora and fauna must adapt to new conditions (a). It is widely accepted that climate changes deeply influence the treeline shifts. In addition to that, wildfires, plant diseases and insect infestation (i.e. mountain pine beetle) can promote a selective replacement of plants, inhibiting some and favoring others, thus modifying the ecosystem in diverse ways. There is little knowledge on the behavior of soil chemistry when such changes occur. Will elemental availability become a crucial factor as a function of climate changes? The Sinks Canyon and Stough Basin - SE flank of the Wind River Range, Wyoming, USA - offer an ideal case study. Conceptually, the areas were divided into three main subsets: tundra, forest and a subarid environment. All soils were developed on granitoid moraines (b, c). From each subset, a liquid topsoil extract was produced and mixed with the solid subsoil samples in batch reactors at 50 °C. The batch experiments were carried out over 1800 h, and the progress of the dissolution was regularly monitored by analyzing liquid aliquots using IC and ICP-OES. The nutrients were mostly released within the first hours of the experiment. Silicon and Al were continuously released into the solution, while some alkali elements - i.e. Na - showed a more complex trend. Organic acids (acetic, citric) and other ligands produced during biodegradation played an active role in mineral dissolution and nutrient release. The mineral colloids detected in the extract (X-ray diffraction) can significantly control surface reactions (adsorption/desorption) and contributed to specific cationic concentrations. The experimental set up was then compared to a computed dissolution model using SerialSTEADYQL software (d, e). Decoding the mechanisms driving mineral weathering is the key to understand the main geochemical aspects of adaptation during climate

  4. Intense Internal and External Fluorescence as Solar Cells Approach the Shockley-Queisser Efficiency Limit

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Owen D; Kurtz, Sarah R

    2012-01-01

    Absorbed sunlight in a solar cell produces electrons and holes. But, at the open circuit condition, the carriers have no place to go. They build up in density and, ideally, they emit external fluorescence that exactly balances the incoming sunlight. Any additional non-radiative recombination impairs the carrier density buildup, limiting the open-circuit voltage. At open-circuit, efficient external fluorescence is an indicator of low internal optical losses. Thus efficient external fluorescence is, counter-intuitively, a necessity for approaching the Shockley-Queisser efficiency limit. A great Solar Cell also needs to be a great Light Emitting Diode. Owing to the narrow escape cone for light, efficient external emission requires repeated attempts, and demands an internal luminescence efficiency >>90%.

  5. Interdisciplinary Approach for Management of Iatrogenic Internal Root Resorption: A Case Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramazani, Mohsen; Asgary, Saeed; Zarenejad, Nafiseh; Mehrani, Javad

    2016-01-01

    For management of a symptomatic maxillary lateral incisor with dull pain on chewing, suppurative sinus tract, defective metal-ceramic crown and iatrogenic internal root resorption, an interdisciplinary approach was taken. Two-visit nonsurgical treatment with calcium-enriched mixture (CEM) cement, replacement of metal-ceramic crown with all-ceramic crown and corrective periodontal plastic surgery were included in the treatment plan. Six-month and one-year follow-ups revealed complete resolution of signs and symptoms and radiographic healing. This case report highlights the importance of adequate cooling during crown preparation to preserve the pulp vitality and prevent internal resorptive lesions and also the profound sealing ability and biocompatibility of CEM cement.

  6. INTRODUCTION OF A SECTORAL APPROACH TO TRANSPORT SECTOR FOR POST-2012 CLIMATE REGIME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atit TIPPICHAI

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the concept of sectoral approaches has been discussed actively under the UNFCCC framework as it could realize GHG mitigations for the Kyoto Protocol and beyond. However, most studies have never introduced this approach to the transport sector explicitly or analyzed its impacts quantitatively. In this paper, we introduce a sectoral approach which aims to set sector-specific emission reduction targets for the transport sector for the post-2012 climate regime. We suppose that developed countries will commit to the sectoral reduction target and key developing countries such as China and India will have the sectoral no-lose targets — no penalties for the failure to meet targets but the right to sell exceeding reductions — for the medium term commitment, i.e. 2013–2020. Six scenarios of total CO2 emission reduction target in the transport sector in 2020, varying from 5% to 30% reductions from the 2005 level are established. The paper preliminarily analyzes shares of emission reductions and abatement costs to meet the targets for key developed countries including the USA, EU-15, Russia, Japan and Canada. To analyze the impacts of the proposed approach, we generate sectoral marginal abatement cost (MAC curves by region through extending a top-down economic model, namely the AIM/CGE model. The total emission reduction targets are analyzed against the developed MAC curves for the transport sector in order to obtain an equal marginal abatement cost which derives optimal emission reduction for each country and minimizes total abatement cost. The results indicate that the USA will play a crucial role in GHG mitigations in the transport sector as it is most responsible for emission reductions (i.e. accounts for more than 70% while Japan will least reduce (i.e. accounts for about 3% for all scenarios. In the case of a 5% reduction, the total abatement is equal to 171.1 MtCO2 with a total cost of 1.61 billion USD; and in the case of a 30

  7. Climatic signal from Pinus leucodermis axial resin ducts: a tree-ring time series approach

    OpenAIRE

    Antonio Saracino; Angelo Rita; Sergio Rossi; Laia Andreu-Hayles; G. Helle; Luigi Todaro

    2016-01-01

    Developing long-term chronologies of tree-ring anatomical features to evaluate climatic relationships within species might serve as an annual proxy to explore and elucidate the climatic drivers affecting xylem differentiation. Pinus leucodermis response to climate was examined by analyzing vertical xylem resin ducts in wood growing at high elevation in the Apennines of peninsular Southern Italy. Early- and latewood tree-ring resin duct chronologies, spanning the 1804–2010 time period, were co...

  8. A variational approach to environmental and climatic problems of urban agglomerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penenko, V. V.; Tsvetova, E. A.

    2016-11-01

    We discuss some aspects of the development of a variational approach to study the dynamics of climatic and ecological systems under intensive actions of natural and anthropogenic origin. The variational principle essentially represents a versatile tool to create a consistent modeling technology based on models of processes coupled with available observational data. The basic entities included in the formulation of the variational principle are models of processes; data and models of observations; target criteria for forecasting; a priori information about all the required elements of the system. We develop a set of mathematical models combined within the framework of the variational principle. They describe the dynamics of the atmosphere and water bodies in conjunction with a thermally and dynamically heterogeneous surface of the Earth; the hydrological cycle, moisture in the atmosphere and the soil; radiation transfer in the system of the atmosphere and the underlying surface; and transport and transformation of various substances in gaseous and aerosol states in the atmosphere. As an example, we demonstrate the results of calculations performed with a set of numerical models adapted to the conditions of a Novosibirsk city agglomeration. The results of scenario calculations on the formation of mesoclimates and quality of the atmosphere for the typical conditions of Siberian cities are presented.

  9. A Holistic Approach to Climate and Health Research: Respiratory and Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asrar, G.; Alonoso, W.; McCormick, B.; Schuck-Paim, C.; Miller, M.

    2014-12-01

    The link between climate variability and change, especially extreme conditions, is well documented in both environmental and health literature. The focus of research in the recent past, and current studies, is to understand causal relationships between the disease agents and environmental conditions, based on post-hoc analysis of observed cases to develop predictive models for advance warning of public by health authorities. A combination of the isolated examination of individual diseases and routes of infection (e.g. respiratory system, skin, digestive tract, etc.) and reliance mostly on correlative evidence from past occurrences have restricted public health progress (e.g. compared to experimental evidence of the quantitative balance of different transmission routes) and the utility of knowledge gained from such studies (e.g. reliably predicting seasonal outbreaks is no longer an advance). We propose a shift from focusing on the prediction of individual disease pattern(s) to a more holistic identification and mitigation of broader vulnerabilities within the provision of public health. Such an approach has the potential to account for and reveal health vulnerabilities common to a broader range of health stresses, thus facilitating a more holistic response to health challenges. The human health fragilities associated with respiratory diseases caused by a combination of natural (i.e dust, pollen, etc.) and industrial particulates (i.e. soot, aerosols, etc.) and other infectious airborne agents, for example, and their adverse impact on human health such as respiratory, gastrointestinal, etc. is an ideal candidate for such a holistic approach to environment and health research.

  10. Political Ecology Approach to Island Tourism Planning and Climate Change Adaptation: A Methodological Exploration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgilio Maguigad

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is emerging as the main driver of current and future climate-related risks for small islands. These risks include sea level rise, stronger tropical cyclones, and changing rainfall patterns. While there is now high confidence in the scientific community that the present change in climate is anthropogenic in nature compared to the Earth’s geologic history of natural variability, there is a need for more detailed evaluations of the relationships between humans and the climate. As a human activity affected by climate change, tourism is in need of such analyses since current positivist analytical tools are inadequate for evaluating the complexity of such interactions. This paper reviews the literature, scientific frameworks, and methodological epistemologies used to analyse human community relationships to natural environments and their applicability in small island tourism environments that are impacted by climate change in the Philippines. Political ecology emerges as a potent and appropriate framework since climate change adaptation planning processes for island tourism are inherently political. The paper advances the use of political ecology for climate change adaptation to grapple with the equally complex phenomena of island tourism urbanisation and climate change, thereby contributing to the discourse in three research areas.

  11. A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback: The PCN Incubation-Panarctic Thermal (PInc-PanTher) Scaling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koven, C. D.; Schuur, E.; Schaedel, C.; Bohn, T. J.; Burke, E.; Chen, G.; Chen, X.; Ciais, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J. W.; Hayes, D. J.; Hugelius, G.; Jafarov, E. E.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; MacDougall, A.; Marchenko, S. S.; McGuire, A. D.; Natali, S.; Nicolsky, D.; Olefeldt, D.; Peng, S.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Schaefer, K. M.; Strauss, J.; Treat, C. C.; Turetsky, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a 3-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100.

  12. The methodic approach to the diagnostics of internal communications at the industrial enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.Yu. Saher

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of an article. The aim of an article is to develop methodic approach to diagnostics of internal communications within business-processes management at the industrial enterprise considering all elements in the interior communicational processes. The results of the analysis. Owing the differing character of approaches to estimate internal communications state, study their separate constituents and necessity to form the only approach to diagnose internal communicational processes (ICP at the enterprise, and considering its all constituents, internal communication diagnostics procedure at the enterprise is suggested to conduct by the investigated diagnostics algorithm. According to the algorithm, the object of diagnostics is ICP system with the following components: organizational, informational, technical and technological, social and psychological subsystems. In these four areas the classification of indicators of internal communications effectiveness evaluation was formed. However, having regard to gravity of availability interrelated indicators and a high degree of probability of occurrence duplication settlement we propose narrow down the number of components to two diagnostic groups of indicators: 1 social and organizational (a combination of organizational, social and psychological components. This component is provided for the calculation of such indicators as: coefficient of management reliability, staff loyalty, cohesion in the group, the index productivity growth. 2 technical and informational: the information processing reliability, completeness of the information, software workload coefficient, coefficient of computer using. The received values of the generalized integral factors by the social and organizational and technical and informational components concerning enterprise interior communications are put to the summery table. To estimate enterprise interior communications it is proposed to form matrix of their state

  13. World Climate Classification and Search: Data Mining Approach Utilizing Dynamic Time Warping Similarity Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepinski, T. F.; Netzel, P.; Jasiewicz, J.

    2014-12-01

    We have developed a novel method for classification and search of climate over the global land surface excluding Antarctica. Our method classifies climate on the basis of the outcome of time series segmentation and clustering. We use WorldClim 30 arc sec. (approx. 1 km) resolution grid data which is based on 50 years of climatic observations. Each cell in a grid is assigned a 12 month series consisting of 50-years monthly averages of mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures as well as the total precipitation. The presented method introduces several innovations with comparison to existing data-driven methods of world climate classifications. First, it uses only climatic rather than bioclimatic data. Second, it employs object-oriented methodology - the grid is first segmented before climatic segments are classified. Third, and most importantly, the similarity between climates in two given cells is performed using the dynamic time warping (DTW) measure instead of the Euclidean distance. The DTW is known to be superior to Euclidean distance for time series, but has not been utilized before in classification of global climate. To account for computational expense of DTW we use highly efficient GeoPAT software (http://sil.uc.edu/gitlist/) that, in the first step, segments the grid into local regions of uniform climate. In the second step, the segments are classified. We also introduce a climate search - a GeoWeb-based method for interactive presentation of global climate information in the form of query-and-retrieval. A user selects a geographical location and the system returns a global map indicating level of similarity between local climates and a climate in the selected location. The results of the search for location: "University of Cincinnati, Main Campus" are presented on attached map. The results of the search for location: "University of Cincinnati, Main Campus" are presented on the map. We have compared the results of our method to Koeppen classification scheme

  14. Medical Providers as Global Warming and Climate Change Health Educators: A Health Literacy Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villagran, Melinda; Weathers, Melinda; Keefe, Brian; Sparks, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to wildlife and the environment, but it also one of the most pervasive threats to human health. The goal of this study was to examine the relationships among dimensions of health literacy, patient education about global warming and climate change (GWCC), and health behaviors. Results reveal that patients who have higher…

  15. Extreme precipitation and temperature responses to circulation patterns in current climate: statistical approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Photiadou, C.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is likely to influence the frequency of extreme extremes - temperature, precipitation and hydrological extremes, which implies increasing risks for flood and drought events in Europe. In current climate, European countries were often not sufficiently prepared to deal with the great so

  16. In search of a European legislative approach to adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keessen, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The European Union has started to plan for adaptation to climate change. It is acting on the IPCC Assessments reports warning that climate change is already happening. Warming is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice a

  17. THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC AND PRACTICAL CONFERENCE «SPACE TRAVEL IS APPROACHING REALITY» (SUCCESSFUL EVENT IN DIFFICULT TIMES)

    OpenAIRE

    Matusevych Tetiana

    2015-01-01

    The article analyzes the presentations of participants of III International Scientific and Practical Conference «Space Travel – approaching reality», held on 6–7 November 2014 in Kharkiv, Ukraine

  18. Third International Scientific and Practical Conference «Space Travel is Approaching Reality» (Successful Event in Difficult Times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matusevych Tetiana

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the presentations of participants of III International Scientific and Practical Conference «Space Travel – approaching reality», held on 6–7 November 2014 in Kharkiv, Ukraine

  19. A Longitudinal Analysis of Outcomes of Lupus Nephritis in an International Inception Cohort Using a Multistate Model Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hanly, John G; Su, Li; Urowitz, Murray B

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study bidirectional change and predictors of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and proteinuria in lupus nephritis (LN) using a multistate modeling approach. METHODS: Patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort were classifie...

  20. Climate stabilization wedges in action: a systems approach to energy sustainability for Hawaii Island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Jeremiah; Chertow, Marian

    2009-04-01

    Pacala and Socolow developed a framework to stabilize global greenhouse gas levels for the next fifty years using wedges of constant size representing an increasing use of existing technologies and approaches for energy efficiency, carbon free generation, renewables, and carbon storage. The research presented here applies their approach to Hawaii Island, with modifications to support local scale analysis and employing a "bottom-up" methodology that allows for wedges of various sizes. A discretely bounded spatial unit offers a testing ground for a holistic approach to improving the energy sector with the identification of local options and limitations to the implementation of a comprehensive energy strategy. Nearly 80% of total primary energy demand across all sectors for Hawaii Island is currently met using petroleum-based fuels.The Sustainable Energy Plan scenario included here presents an internally consistent set of recommendations bounded by local constraints in areas such as transportation efficiency, centralized renewable generation (e.g., geothermal, wind), reduction in transmission losses, and improved building efficiency. This scenario shows thatthe demand for primary energy in 2030 could be reduced by 23% through efficiency measures while 46% could be met by renewable generation, resulting in only 31% of the projected demand being met by fossil fuels. In 2030, the annual releases of greenhouse gases would be 3.2 Mt CO2-eq/year under the Baseline scenario, while the Sustainable Energy Plan would reduce this to 1.2 Mt CO2-eq/year--an annual emissions rate 40% below 2006 levels and 10% below 1990 levels. The total for greenhouse gas emissions during the 24-year study period (2007 to 2030) is 59.9 Mt CO2-eq under the Baseline scenario and 32.5 Mt CO2-eq under the Sustainable Energy Plan scenario. Numerous combinations of efficiency and renewable energy options can be employed in a manner that stabilizes the greenhouse gas emissions of Hawaii Island.

  1. Research and Collaboration Overview of Institut Pasteur International Network: A Bibliometric Approach toward Research Funding Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Mostafavi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Institut Pasteur International Network (IPIN, which includes 32 research institutes around the world, is a network of research and expertise to fight against infectious diseases. A scientometric approach was applied to describe research and collaboration activities of IPIN. Methods Publications were identified using a manual search of IPIN member addresses in Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE between 2006 and 2011. Total publications were then subcategorized by geographic regions. Several scientometric indicators and the H-index were employed to estimate the scientific production of each IPIN member. Subject and geographical overlay maps were also applied to visualize the network activities of the IPIN members. Results A total number of 12667 publications originated from IPIN members. Each author produced an average number of 2.18 papers and each publication received an average of 13.40 citations. European Pasteur Institutes had the largest amount of publications, authored papers, and H-index values. Biochemistry and molecular biology, microbiology, immunology and infectious diseases were the most important research topics, respectively. Geographic mapping of IPIN publications showed wide international collaboration among IPIN members around the world. Conclusion IPIN has strong ties with national and international authorities and organizations to investigate the current and future health issues. It is recommended to use scientometric and collaboration indicators as measures of research performance in IPIN future policies and investment decisions.

  2. Trapping of microwave radiation in hollow polypyrrole microsphere through enhanced internal reflection: A novel approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panigrahi, Ritwik; Srivastava, Suneel K.

    2015-01-01

    In present work, spherical core (polystyrene, PS)/shell (polypyrrole, PPy) has been synthesized via in situ chemical oxidative copolymerization of pyrrole (Py) on the surface of sulfonated PS microsphere followed by the formation of hollow polypyrrole (HPPy) shell by dissolving PS inner core in THF. Thereafter, we first time established that such fabricated novel art of morphology acts as a conducting trap in absorbing electromagnetic (EM) wave by internal reflection. Further studies have been extended on the formation of its silver nanocomposites HPPy/Ag to strengthen our contention on this novel approach. Our investigations showed that electromagnetic interference (EMI) shielding efficiency (SE) of HPPy (34.5-6 dB) is significantly higher compared to PPy (20-5 dB) in the frequency range of 0.5-8 GHz due to the trapping of EM wave by internal reflection. We also observed that EMI shielding is further enhanced to 59-23 in 10 wt% Ag loaded HPPy/Ag-10. This is attributed to the simultaneous contribution of internal reflection as well as reflection from outer surface. Such high EMI shielding capacity using conducting polymers are rarely reported.

  3. Characterizing the nonlinear internal wave climate in the northeastern South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Ramp

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Four oceanographic moorings were deployed in the South China Sea from April 2005 to June 2006 along a transect extending from the Batanes Province, Philippines in the Luzon Strait to just north of Dong-Sha Island on the Chinese continental slope. The purpose of the array was to observe and track large-amplitude nonlinear internal waves (NIWs from generation to shoaling over the course of one full year. The basin and slope moorings observed velocity, temperature (T and salinity (S at 1–3 min intervals to observe the waves without aliasing. The Luzon mooring observed velocity at 15 min and T and S at 3 min, primarily to resolve the tidal forcing in the strait.

    The observed waves travelled WNW towards 282–288 degrees with little variation. They were predominantly mode-1 waves with orbital velocities exceeding 100 cm s−1 and thermal displacements exceeding 100 m. Consistent with earlier authors, two types of waves were observed: the a-waves arrived diurnally and had a rank-ordered packet structure. The b-waves arrived in between, about an hour later each day similar to the pattern of the semi-diurnal tide. The b-waves were weaker than the a-waves, usually consisted of just one large wave, and were often absent in the deep basin, appearing as NIW only upon reaching the continental slope. The propagation speed of both types of waves was 323±31 cm s−1 in the deep basin and 222±18 cm s−1 over the continental slope. These speeds were 11–20% faster than the theoretical mode-1 wave speeds for the observed stratification, roughly consistent with the additional contribution from the nonlinear wave amplitude. The observed waves were clustered around the time of the spring tide at the presumed generation site in the Luzon Strait, and no waves were observed at neap tide. A remarkable feature was the distinct lack of waves during the winter months, December 2005 through February

  4. The Household Economy Approach. Managing the impact of climate change on poverty and food security in developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A. Seaman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have severe effects on the populations of developing countries because many of these depend heavily on agriculture for income, have large impoverished rural populations which rely on agriculture for subsistence, and are financially and technically least equipped to adapt to changing conditions. Planning to target measures to support adaptation to reduce the impact of climate change on poverty and food insecurity requires methods of identifying vulnerable households. This paper describes an established approach to vulnerability assessment, the ‘Household Economy Approach’ (HEA and its potential application to the management of climate change in developing countries. The HEA is widely used by Governments and others, chiefly in Africa, for the assessment of household vulnerability to poverty and food security. HEA uses a model based on Amartya Sen’s entitlement theory and detailed social and economic data to simulate the impact of weather related, price, policy and other shocks on household income and food access, to provide information for decision making. In developing countries climate change will be experienced in terms of increased climate variability and an increased frequency of extreme events. HEA provides a way of managing the effects of year to year shocks to prevent impoverishment and the erosion of household resilience. It also provides the information needed to develop scenarios to support the design of policies to support longer term adaptation. HEA data has already been collected for large areas of Africa.

  5. A Holistic Approach for Addressing the Issue of Effective Technology Transfer in the Frame of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charikleia Karakosta

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change policy and sustainable development issues and goals are closely intertwined. Recognizing the dual relationship between sustainable development and climate change points to a need for the exploration of actions that jointly address sustainable development and climate change. Technology transfer is considered an issue with growing interest worldwide and has been recognized as the key in supporting countries to achieve sustainable development, while addressing climate change challenges. This study presents an integrated decision support methodological framework for the formulation and evaluation of activities to promote technology transfer, as well as the provision of clear recommendations and strategies for framing specific policy in the context of climate change. The philosophy of the proposed approach, under the name: assess-identify-define (AID, consists of three components, where each one focuses on a particular problem. The methodology is integrated using appropriate tools in the information decision support system for effective technology transfer (DSS-ΕTT. The pilot application of the proposed methodology, in five representative developing countries, provided the possibility to evaluate the characteristics of the adopted methodology in terms of completeness, usability, extensionality, as well as analysis of results reliability.

  6. Assessing Actual Visit Behavior through Antecedents of Tourists Satisfaction among International Tourists in Jordan: A Structural Equation Modeling (SEM Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayed Moh’d Al Muala

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Jordan tourism industry is facing fluctuating tourist visit provoked by dissatisfaction, high visit risk, low hotel service, or negative Jordan image. This study aims to examine the relationships between the antecedents of tourist satisfaction and actual visit behavior in tourism of Jordan, and the mediating effect of tourist satisfaction (SAT in the relationship between Jordan image (JOM, service climate (SER and actual visit behavior (ACT. A total of 850 international tourists completed a survey that were conducted at southern sites in Jordan. Using structural equation modeling (SEM technique, confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA was performed to examine the reliability and validity of the measurement, and the structural equation modeling techniques (Amos 6.0 were used to evaluate the casual model. Results of the study demonstrate the strong predictive power and explain of international tourists’ behavior in Jordan. The findings highlighted that the relationship between Jordan image and service climate are significant and positive on actual visit behavior.

  7. ANALYSIS OF DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL APPROACHES TO THE ADVANCED EDUCATIONAL PRACTICES IN THE ELECTRONIC NETWORK ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana N. Noskova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: human activities related to the use of information are being transformed under the influence of computer technology. Variable solutions to information problems are emerging; demands and require¬ments for the competence are changing on the labour market. Educational practices are destined to form a new learning behaviour for the 21st century, adopting lifelong learning strategy. The main purpose of the article is to answer the question as to how to transform existing pedagogical theory and practice under current conditions of electronic environment. Publishing of this article is coherent with concept of the journal Integration of Education, analyzing Russian and world experience in the development of education systems. This approach is important for dissemination and implementation in practice. This article explores the challenges of information technology and technical support of the educational process in universities and schools. The study of these issues is in the field of view of the journa l. Materials and Methods: the paper elaborates on the results of domestic and international educational theory and practice, comparison methods, drawing on student’s survey in the framework of international research in the field of e-learning in higher education institutions. Results: the main approaches, applied to the formulation of educational practices in the electronic environ-ment, were analyzed. The most topical national approaches include system, activity, polysubject (dialogical, context, and dialogical ones. Among international approaches self-directed learning, educational communication strategies, experiential learning, training in partnership, collaborative learning, learning in online communities, situational training were analyzed. Specifics of electronic educational interactions with distributed in time and space activities of teachers and students, create the preconditions for the implementation of new educational

  8. An approach for assessing human health vulnerability and public health interventions to adapt to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Kovats, R Sari; Menne, Bettina

    2006-12-01

    Assessments of the potential human health impacts of climate change are needed to inform the development of adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to lessen projected adverse impacts. We developed methods for country-level assessments to help policy makers make evidence-based decisions to increase resilience to current and future climates, and to provide information for national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The steps in an assessment should include the following: a) determine the scope of the assessment; b) describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; c) identify and describe current strategies, policies, and measures designed to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; d) review the health implications of the potential impacts of climate variability and change in other sectors; e) estimate the future potential health impacts using scenarios of future changes in climate, socioeconomic, and other factors; f) synthesize the results; and g) identify additional adaptation policies and measures to reduce potential negative health impacts. Key issues for ensuring that an assessment is informative, timely, and useful include stakeholder involvement, an adequate management structure, and a communication strategy.

  9. Understanding climate change projections for precipitation over Western Europe with a weather typing approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Belo-Pereira, Margarida; Fraga, Helder; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation over Western Europe (WE) is projected to increase (decrease) roughly northward (equatorward) of 50°N during the twenty first century. These changes are generally attributed to alterations in the regional large-scale circulation, e.g. jet stream, cyclone activity and blocking frequencies. A novel weather typing within the sector (30°W-10°E, 25-70°N) is used for a more comprehensive dynamical interpretation of precipitation changes. A k-means clustering on daily mean sea level pressure was undertaken for ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979-2014). Eight weather types are identified: S1, S2, S3 (summertime types), W1, W2, W3 (wintertime types), B1 and B2 (blocking-like types). Their distinctive dynamical characteristics allow identifying the main large-scale precipitation-driving mechanisms. Simulations with 22 CMIP5 models for recent climate conditions show biases in reproducing the observed seasonality of weather types. In particular, an overestimation of weather type frequencies associated with zonal airflow is identified. Considering projections following the RCP8.5 scenario over 2071-2100, the frequencies of the three driest types (S1, B2 and W3) are projected to increase (mainly S1, +4%) in detriment of the rainiest types, particularly W1 (-3%). These changes explain most of the precipitation projections over WE. However, a weather type-independent background signal is identified (increase/decrease in precipitation over northern/southern WE), suggesting modifications in precipitation-generating processes and/or model inability to accurately simulate these processes. Despite these caveats in the precipitation scenarios for WE, which must be taken into account, our approach permits a better understanding of the projected trends for precipitation over Western Europe.

  10. Potential Implications of Approaches to Climate Change on the Clean Water Rule Definition of "Waters of the United States".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faust, Derek R; Moore, Matthew T; Emison, Gerald Andrews; Rush, Scott A

    2016-05-01

    The 1972 Clean Water Act was passed to protect chemical, physical, and biological integrity of United States' waters. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers codified a new "waters of the United States" rule on June 29, 2015, because several Supreme Court case decisions caused confusion with the existing rule. Climate change could affect this rule through connectivity between groundwater and surface waters; floodplain waters and the 100-year floodplain; changes in jurisdictional status; and sea level rise on coastal ecosystems. Four approaches are discussed for handling these implications: (1) "Wait and see"; (2) changes to the rule; (3) use guidance documents; (4) Congress statutorily defining "waters of the United States." The approach chosen should be legally defensible and achieved in a timely fashion to provide protection to "waters of the United States" in proactive consideration of scientifically documented effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems.

  11. Bringing simulation to implementation: Presentation of a global approach in the design of passive solar buildings under humid tropical climates

    CERN Document Server

    Garde, François; Celaire, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In early 1995, a DSM pilot initiative has been launched in the French islands of Guadeloupe and Reunion through a partnership between several public and private partners (the French Public Utility EDF, the University of Reunion Island, low cost housing companies, architects, energy consultants, etc...) to set up standards to improve thermal design of new residential buildings in tropical climates. This partnership led to defining optimized bio-climatic urban planning and architectural designs featuring the use of passive cooling architectural principles (solar shading, natural ventilation) and components, as well as energy efficient systems and technologies. The design and sizing of each architectural component on internal thermal comfort in building has been assessed with a validated thermal and airflow building simulation software (CODYRUN). These technical specifications have been edited in a reference document which has been used to build over 300 new pilot dwellings through the years 1996-1998 in Reunion...

  12. Eastern Australian Coastal Behaviour in Response to Extreme Storm Climate Between 1600-1900 AD, Determined from a Coupled Climate Reconstruction and Coastal Morphodynamic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, I. D.; Browning, S. A.; Mortlock, T.

    2014-12-01

    A sustained morphodynamic reorganisation of the east Australian coast occurred over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) between ~1600 to 1900 CE. These changes indicate that a large-scale shift in the modal climate occurred together with changes in extreme storm frequency or clustering of East Coast Cyclones (ECC), when compared to the past century. ECC are complex subtropical weather systems that form off the east coast of Australia and/or travel parallel to the coast of Australia from south-east Queensland to Victoria. We investigate coastal evolution and the associated climate drivers using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, using a paleoclimate data assimilation approach; together with wave transformation and coastal planform modelling for paleo-wave directions, and historical bathymetry. We present the morphodynamic response to changes in directional wave power, by linking the paleo-windfield reconstruction to wave transformation models. The combined methodology has illuminated the 'ultimate' storm impacts not seen in the past century, and defines the multi-decadal coastal system response and recovery to extreme storm sequences. Increased embaymentisation and anticlockwise rotation of embayed and barrier coast planform geometry; shifts in barrier-estuary-inlet configuration; and a ubiquitous foredune transgression, are shown to have occurred between ~1600 to 1800 CE. This was in response to a poleward shift in the subtropics and frequency of tradewind-driven wave climate, and tropical-origin storms. From 1800 to 1900 CE, an equatorward shift in the subtropics, and clustering of extratropical-origin storms drove an increase in the shoreface-littoral sediment budget and a clockwise coastline progradation. This

  13. Internal Due Date Assignment in a Wafer Fabrication Factory by an Effective Fuzzy-Neural Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toly Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Owing to the complexity of the wafer fabrication, the due date assignment of each job presents a challenging problem to the production planning and scheduling people. To tackle this problem, an effective fuzzy-neural approach is proposed in this study to improve the performance of internal due date assignment in a wafer fabrication factory. Some innovative treatments are taken in the proposed methodology. First, principal component analysis (PCA is applied to construct a series of linear combinations of the original variables to form a new variable, so that these new variables are unrelated to each other as much as possible, and the relationship among them can be reflected in a better way. In addition, the simultaneous application of PCA, fuzzy c-means (FCM, and back propagation network (BPN further improved the estimation accuracy. Subsequently, the iterative upper bound reduction (IUBR approach is proposed to determine the allowance that will be added to the estimated job cycle time. An applied case that uses data collected from a wafer fabrication factory illustrates this effective fuzzy-neural approach.

  14. 76 FR 20974 - Implications of Climate Change for Bioassessment Programs and Approaches To Account for Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-14

    ... foundation for understanding the potential climatic vulnerability of bioassessment indicators, and, (2) to... Building, 2300 Wilson Boulevard, 1st Floor (Mtg. Rm. to the Left of Concierge Desk), Arlington, VA...

  15. An Innovative Approach to Effective Climate Science Application through Stakeholder Participation in Great Plains Grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athearn, N.; Broska, J.

    2015-12-01

    For natural resource managers and other Great Plains stakeholders, climate uncertainties further confound decision-making on a highly altered landscape. Partner organizations comprising the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) acknowledge climate change as a high-priority threat to grasslands and associated habitats, affecting water availability, species composition, and other factors. Despite its importance, incorporation of climate change impacts into planning is hindered by high uncertainty and lack of translation to a tangible outcome: effects on species and their habitats. In 2014, the GPLCC initiated a Landscape Conservation Design (LCD) process to ultimately improve the size and connectivity of grasslands - informing land managers of the landscape-scale impacts of local decisions about where to restore, enhance, protect, and develop lands. Defining this goal helped stakeholders envision a tangible product. High resolution land cover data recently completed for Texas and Oklahoma represent current grassland locations. By focusing climate change models to project changes in these land cover datasets, resulting land cover projections can be directly incorporated into LCD-based models to focus restoration where future climates will support grasslands. Broad organizational cooperation has been critical for this USGS-led project, which uses downscaled climate data and other support from the South Central Climate Science Center Consortium and builds on existing work including LCD efforts of the Playa Lakes Joint Venture and the Bureau of Land Management's Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecological Assessment. Ongoing stakeholder guidance through an advisory team ensures effective application of a product that will be both relevant to and understood by decision makers, for whom the primary role of research is to reduce uncertainties and clear the path for more efficient decision-making in the face of climatic uncertainty.

  16. Climate change projections over India by a downscaling approach using PRECIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bal, Prasanta Kumar; Ramachandran, Andimuthu; Palanivelu, Kandasamy; Thirumurugan, Perumal; Geetha, Rajadurai; Bhaskaran, Bhaski

    2016-08-01

    This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the possible regional climate change over India by using Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), a regional climate model (RCM) developed by Met Office Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom. The lateral boundary data for the simulations were taken from a sub-set of six members sampled from the Hadley Centre's 17- member Quantified Uncertainty in Model Projections (QUMP) perturbed physics ensemble. The model was run with 25 km × 25 km resolution from the global climate model (GCM) - HadCM3Q at the emission rate of special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A1B scenarios. Based on the model performance, six member ensembles running over a period of 1970-2100 in each experiment were utilized to predict possible range of variations in the future projections for the periods 2020s (2005-2035), 2050s (2035-2065) and 2080s (2065-2095) with respect to the baseline period (1975-2005). The analyses concentrated on maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall over the region. For the whole India, the projections of maximum temperature from all the six models showed an increase within the range 2.5°C to 4.4°C by end of the century with respect to the present day climate simulations. The annual rainfall projections from all the six models indicated a general increase in rainfall being within the range 15-24%. Mann-Kendall trend test was run on time series data of temperatures and rainfall for the whole India and the results from some of the ensemble members indicated significant increasing trends. Such high resolution climate change information may be useful for the researchers to study the future impacts of climate change in terms of extreme events like floods and droughts and formulate various adaptation strategies for the society to cope with future climate change.

  17. Approaches to Climate Literacy at the American Museum of Natural History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, R. V.

    2015-12-01

    The American Museum of Natural History (AMNH) offers a suite of courses, workshops and special events in climate change education for audiences ranging from young children to adults and utilizing both online and in-person formats. These offerings are supported by rich digital resources including video, animations and data visualizations. These efforts have the potential to raise awareness of climate change, deepen understandings and improve public discourse and decision-making on this critical issue. For adult audiences, Our Earth's Future offers participants a five-week course at AMNH that focuses on climate change science, impacts and communication, taking advantage of both AMNH expertise and exhibitry. Online versions of this course include both a ten-week course as well as three different three-week thematic courses. (The longer course is now available as a MOOC in Coursera.) These activities have been supported by a grant from IMLS. The results of independent evaluation provide insight into participant needs and how they might be addressed. For K-12 educators, the Museum's Seminars on Science program of online teacher professional development offers, in collaboration with its higher education partners, a graduate course in climate change that is authored by both an AMNH curator and leading NASA scientists. Developed with support from both NASA and NSF, the course provides a semester-equivalent introduction to climate change science for educators, including digital resources, assignments and discussions for classroom use. The results of independent evaluation will be presented. For younger audiences, the presentation will highlight resources from the AMNH Ology site; television programming conducted in partnership with HBO; Science Bulletinsvideos that include current climate change research; resources related to the GRACE mission for tracking water from space; and special event programming at the Museum on climate change. This presentation will address the

  18. Identification and discrimination of patterns of dynamical influences within the climate system by means of complex network approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, R. V.

    2014-12-01

    Complex network theory provides a powerful toolbox for studying the structure of statistical interrelationships between multiple time series. In this work, we demonstrate how networks constructed from fields of climatological observables like surface air temperatures, geopotential height or vertically integrated moisture divergence can be used for characterizing the evolving spatio-temporal correlation structure of the Earth's climate system and the time-dependent coupling between different variables. As a first application, we study the temporal variability of several network characteristics based on global surface air temperature data. The corresponding evolving climate network properties provide a functional discrimination between different large-scale climatological situations associated with different phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as reorganizations of dynamical similarity patterns following localized perturbations of the global climate system after strong volcanic eruptions. As a particular application, we demonstrate the distinction between the two previously known El Nino types based on global climate network properties and discuss implications for the possible existence of different La Nina types. A second example concerns the spatio-temporal organization of strong evapotranspiration events over South America. By constructing climate networks based on the synchronicity of extreme values in the vertically integrated moisture flux at different locations, we obtain distinct spatial patterns associated with the organization of strong atmospheric upwelling events. Again, our results exhibit a distinct imprint of the phasing of ENSO. Finally, we demonstrate how the climate network approach can be extended to studying the interaction structure between two climatological fields. As an example, we discuss the cross-linkage structure of mid-to-high latitude northern hemispheric ocean-atmosphere interactions during summer and winter

  19. Spectral Kernel Approach to Study Radiative Response of Climate Variables and Interannual Variability of Reflected Solar Spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Zhonghai; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Loukachine, Constantin; Charlock, Thomas P.; Young, David; Noeel, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    The radiative kernel approach provides a simple way to separate the radiative response to different climate parameters and to decompose the feedback into radiative and climate response components. Using CERES/MODIS/Geostationary data, we calculated and analyzed the solar spectral reflectance kernels for various climate parameters on zonal, regional, and global spatial scales. The kernel linearity is tested. Errors in the kernel due to nonlinearity can vary strongly depending on climate parameter, wavelength, surface, and solar elevation; they are large in some absorption bands for some parameters but are negligible in most conditions. The spectral kernels are used to calculate the radiative responses to different climate parameter changes in different latitudes. The results show that the radiative response in high latitudes is sensitive to the coverage of snow and sea ice. The radiative response in low latitudes is contributed mainly by cloud property changes, especially cloud fraction and optical depth. The large cloud height effect is confined to absorption bands, while the cloud particle size effect is found mainly in the near infrared. The kernel approach, which is based on calculations using CERES retrievals, is then tested by direct comparison with spectral measurements from Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) (a different instrument on a different spacecraft). The monthly mean interannual variability of spectral reflectance based on the kernel technique is consistent with satellite observations over the ocean, but not over land, where both model and data have large uncertainty. RMS errors in kernel ]derived monthly global mean reflectance over the ocean compared to observations are about 0.001, and the sampling error is likely a major component.

  20. The DSET Tool Library: A software approach to enable data exchange between climate system models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCormick, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    Climate modeling is a computationally intensive process. Until recently computers were not powerful enough to perform the complex calculations required to simulate the earth`s climate. As a result standalone programs were created that represent components of the earth`s climate (e.g., Atmospheric Circulation Model). However, recent advances in computing, including massively parallel computing, make it possible to couple the components forming a complete earth climate simulation. The ability to couple different climate model components will significantly improve our ability to predict climate accurately and reliably. Historically each major component of the coupled earth simulation is a standalone program designed independently with different coordinate systems and data representations. In order for two component models to be coupled, the data of one model must be mapped to the coordinate system of the second model. The focus of this project is to provide a general tool to facilitate the mapping of data between simulation components, with an emphasis on using object-oriented programming techniques to provide polynomial interpolation, line and area weighting, and aggregation services.

  1. Studying interactions between climate variability and vegetation dynamic using a phenology based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horion, S.; Cornet, Y.; Erpicum, M.; Tychon, B.

    2013-02-01

    In this paper we investigated if and how a signature of climate control on vegetation growth can be individualized at regional scale using time series of SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI and ECMWF meteorological data. Twelve regions characterized by dominant and stable cropland or grassland covers were selected in Europe and Africa. Our results show that the relationship between NDVI and meteorological parameters is highly complex and significantly vary trough the phenological cycle of the plants. Hence, interactions between vegetation dynamics and climate variability must be studied at a smaller time scale in order to identify properly the limiting factors to vegetation growth. Using NDVI metrics, vegetative phases (from green-up to maximum NDVI) and reproductive phases (from maximum NDVI to maturity) were identified for each region. Cross-correlation analysis revealed that, in most of the cases, the best scores of Pearson's r are obtained when we considered the vegetative phase (from green-up to maximum of NDVI) and the reproductive phase (from maximum of NDVI to maturity) separately. We also showed that climatic constraints identified using yearly proxies of climate and vegetation do not depict correctly or completely the climate control on vegetation development. In that sense the complexity of the climate-vegetation relationship, which is spatially and temporally variable, is well underlined in this study.

  2. A possible climate signal in the surface morphology and internal structure of Galena Creek Rock Glacier, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Eric; Holt, John; Levy, Joseph; Stuurman, Cassie; Nerozzi, Stefano; Cardenas, Benjamin; Pharr, James; Aylward, Dan; Schmidt, Logan; Hoey, William; Prem, Parvathy; Rambo, Jackie; Lim, YeJin; Maharaj, Kian

    2016-04-01

    Galena Creek Rock Glacier (GCRG) has been shown in previous studies to be a debris-covered glacier (e.g. Ackert, Jr., 1998), and is thus a target of interest as a record of climate and an element of the mountain hydrological system. The goal of this study was to investigate possible relationships between surface morphology and internal structure and composition of GCRG. This was achieved using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), time-domain electromagnetic sounding (TEM), and photogrammetry to produce digital terrain models (DTMs). We acquired 6 longitudinal GPR surveys at 50 and 100 MHz, 2 common midpoint GPR surveys, and 28 TEM soundings on GCRG from the head to the toe, and ground-based photogrammetry data were collected to produce a DTM of its cirque at 10 cm resolution. TEM soundings locally constrained the bulk thickness of GCRG to 26-75 meters. Common midpoint and hyperbola analyses of GPR surveys produced dielectric constants in the near subsurface of 4 in the upper glacier to 5-9 in the middle and lower glacier. These are consistent with clean ice and a mélange of rock with air and/or ice, respectively. GPR revealed a pervasive shallow reflector at 1-2.5m depth that we interpret to be the interface between the surface debris layer and glacier ice. There is increased structure and clutter in the GPR data beneath this interface as one moves down glacier. Observations were additionally made of a 40m wide, 4-5m deep circular thermokarst pond located on upper GCRG in the cirque. The walls of the pond revealed a cross-section of the top several meters of GCRG's interior: a dry surface layer of rocky debris 1-1.5m thick overlying pure glacier ice. An englacial debris band was also observed, roughly 50 cm thick and presenting at an apparent up-glacier dip of ~30 degrees, intersecting the surface near a subtle ridge resolved in the photogrammetry DTM. A GPR transect conducted near the pond over 6 similar ridges imaged 6 corresponding up-glacier dipping reflectors that

  3. Watch your step! A frustrated total internal reflection approach to forensic footwear imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Needham, J. A.; Sharp, J. S.

    2016-02-01

    Forensic image retrieval and processing are vital tools in the fight against crime e.g. during fingerprint capture. However, despite recent advances in machine vision technology and image processing techniques (and contrary to the claims of popular fiction) forensic image retrieval is still widely being performed using outdated practices involving inkpads and paper. Ongoing changes in government policy, increasing crime rates and the reduction of forensic service budgets increasingly require that evidence be gathered and processed more rapidly and efficiently. A consequence of this is that new, low-cost imaging technologies are required to simultaneously increase the quality and throughput of the processing of evidence. This is particularly true in the burgeoning field of forensic footwear analysis, where images of shoe prints are being used to link individuals to crime scenes. Here we describe one such approach based upon frustrated total internal reflection imaging that can be used to acquire images of regions where shoes contact rigid surfaces.

  4. International business cycle synchronization since the 1870s: Evidence from a novel network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonakakis, Nikolaos; Gogas, Periklis; Papadimitriou, Theophilos; Sarantitis, Georgios Antonios

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we examine the issue of business cycle synchronization from a historical perspective in 27 developed and developing countries. Based on a novel complex network approach, the Threshold-Minimum Dominating Set (T-MDS), our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of international business cycle synchronization during fundamental globalization periods since the 1870s. In particular, the proposed methodology reveals that worldwide business cycles de-coupled during the Gold Standard, though they were synchronized during the Great Depression. The Bretton Woods era was associated with a lower degree of synchronization as compared to that during the Great Depression, while worldwide business cycle synchronization increased to unprecedented levels during the latest period of floating exchange rates and the Great Recession.

  5. Mentoring SFRM: A New Approach to International Space Station Flight Control Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huning, Therese; Barshi, Immanuel; Schmidt, Lacey

    2009-01-01

    The Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) of the Johnson Space Center is responsible for providing continuous operations support for the International Space Station (ISS). Operations support requires flight controllers who are skilled in team performance as well as the technical operations of the ISS. Space Flight Resource Management (SFRM), a NASA adapted variant of Crew Resource Management (CRM), is the competency model used in the MOD. ISS flight controller certification has evolved to include a balanced focus on development of SFRM and technical expertise. The latest challenge the MOD faces is how to certify an ISS flight controller (Operator) to a basic level of effectiveness in 1 year. SFRM training uses a twopronged approach to expediting operator certification: 1) imbed SFRM skills training into all Operator technical training and 2) use senior flight controllers as mentors. This paper focuses on how the MOD uses senior flight controllers as mentors to train SFRM skills.

  6. Development of internal solitary waves in various thermocline regimes - a multi-modal approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Gerkema

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical analysis is made on the appearance of oceanic internal solitary waves in a multi-modal setting. This is done for observed profiles of stratification from the Sulu Sea and the Bay of Biscay, in which thermocline motion is dominated by the first and third mode, respectively. The results show that persistent solitary waves occur only in the former case, in accordance with the observations. In the Bay of Biscay much energy is transferred from the third mode to lower modes, implying that a uni-modal approach would not have been appropriate. To elaborate on these results in a systematic way, a simple model for the stratification is used; an interpretation is given in terms of regimes of thermocline strength.

  7. Theoretical aspects of the internal element connectivity parameterization approach for topology optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yoon, Gil Ho; Kim, Y.Y.; Langelaar, M.;

    2008-01-01

    . Therefore, it is important to interpolate link stiffness properly to obtain stably converging results. The main objective of this work is two-fold (1) the investigation of the relationship between the link stiffness and the stiffness of a domain-discretizing patch by using a discrete model and a homogenized......The internal element connectivity parameterization (I-ECP) method is an alternative approach to overcome numerical instabilities associated with low-stiffness element states in non-linear problems. In I-ECP, elements are connected by zero-length links while their link stiffness values are varied...... model and (2) the suggestion of link stiffness interpolation functions. The effects of link stiffness penalization on solution convergence are then tested with several numerical examples. The developed homogenized I-ECP model can also be used to physically interpret an intermediate design variable state....

  8. Public health impact of zoonoses and international approaches for their detection and containment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François-Xavier Meslin

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Many new, emerging and re-emerging diseases of humans are caused by pathogens that originate from animals or products of animal origin. A wide variety of both domestic and wild animal species act as reservoirs for these pathogens, which may be viruses, bacteria or parasites. Given the extensive distribution of the animal species affected, the effective surveillance, prevention and control of zoonotic diseases pose a significant challenge. There are direct and indirect implications for public health of emerging zoonoses. Direct implications are defined as the consequences for human health in terms of morbidity and mortality. Indirect implications are defined as the effect of the influence of emerging zoonotic disease on health professionals and the general public. The tremendous indirect impact of emerging zoonotic diseases on public health policy and structures and on public perception of health risks is acknowledged. A biphasic approach for handling emerging zoonoses is proposed, i.e. a short- to intermediate-term response to an outbreak or emergency and a long-term comprehensive study of the ecology of the zoonotic pathogen. Resource-rich countries should invest in the establishment and strengthening of surveillance systems in resource-limited countries considering the international significance of emerging zoonoses. Based on the new international health regulations, emphasis should be placed on building the appropriate preparedness and response capacity in countries and on promoting intersectoral collaboration and coordination.

  9. A Fragment-Cloud Approach for Modeling Atmospheric Breakup of Asteroids with Varied Internal Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; NASA Engineering Risk Assessment Team, NASA Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

    2016-10-01

    As an asteroid descends toward Earth, it deposits energy in the atmosphere through aerodynamic drag and ablation. Asteroid impact risk assessments rely on energy deposition estimates to predict blast overpressures and ground damage that may result from an airburst, such as the one that occurred over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013. The rates and altitudes at which energy is deposited along the entry trajectory depend upon how the bolide fragments, which in turn depends upon its internal structure and composition. In this work, an analytic asteroid fragmentation model has been developed to model the atmospheric breakup and resulting energy deposition of asteroids with a range of internal structures. The modeling approach combines successive fragmentation of larger independent pieces with aggregate debris clouds released with each fragmentation event. The model can vary the number and masses of fragments produced, the amount of mass released as debris clouds, and the size-strength scaling used to increase the robustness of smaller fragments. The initial asteroid body can be seeded with a distribution of independent fragment sizes amid a remaining debris mass to represent loose rubble pile conglomerations, or can be defined as a monolith with an outer regolith layer. This approach enables the model to represent a range of breakup behaviors and reproduce detailed energy deposition features such as multiple flares due to successive burst events, high-altitude regolith blow-off, or initial disruption of rubble piles followed by more energetic breakup of the constituent boulders. These capabilities provide a means to investigate sensitivities of ground damage to potential variations in asteroid structure.

  10. Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Daniel S; Makra, László; Albertini, Roberto; Bonini, Maira; Páldy, Anna; Rodinkova, Victoria; Šikoparija, Branko; Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elżbieta; Bullock, James M

    2016-09-01

    Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated transport through trade pathways, unintentional release events and the population dynamics and local anthropogenic dispersal that drive subsequent spread. We used the model to simulate the invasion of Europe by common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a globally invasive plant that causes serious harm as an aeroallergen and crop weed. Simulations starting in 1950 accurately reproduced ragweed's current distribution, including the presence of records in climatically unsuitable areas as a result of repeated introduction. Furthermore, the model outputs were strongly correlated with spatial and temporal patterns of ragweed pollen concentrations, which are fully independent of the calibration data. The model suggests that recent trends for warmer summers and increased volumes of international trade have accelerated the ragweed invasion. For the latter, long distance dispersal because of trade within the invaded continent is highlighted as a key invasion process, in addition to import from the native range. Biosecurity simulations, whereby transport through trade pathways is halted, showed that effective control is only achieved by early action targeting all relevant pathways. We conclude that invasion models would benefit from integrating introduction processes (transport and release) with spread dynamics, to better represent propagule pressure from native sources as well as mechanisms for long-distance dispersal within invaded continents. Ultimately, such integration may facilitate better prediction of spatial and temporal variation in invasion

  11. Hands-on approach to teaching Earth system sciences using a information-computational web-GIS portal "Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Gorbatenko, Valentina; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2014-05-01

    A problem of making education relevant to the workplace tasks is a key problem of higher education because old-school training programs are not keeping pace with the rapidly changing situation in the professional field of environmental sciences. A joint group of specialists from Tomsk State University and Siberian center for Environmental research and Training/IMCES SB RAS developed several new courses for students of "Climatology" and "Meteorology" specialties, which comprises theoretical knowledge from up-to-date environmental sciences with practical tasks. To organize the educational process we use an open-source course management system Moodle (www.moodle.org). It gave us an opportunity to combine text and multimedia in a theoretical part of educational courses. The hands-on approach is realized through development of innovative trainings which are performed within the information-computational platform "Climate" (http://climate.scert.ru/) using web GIS tools. These trainings contain practical tasks on climate modeling and climate changes assessment and analysis and should be performed using typical tools which are usually used by scientists performing such kind of research. Thus, students are engaged in n the use of modern tools of the geophysical data analysis and it cultivates dynamic of their professional learning. The hands-on approach can help us to fill in this gap because it is the only approach that offers experience, increases students involvement, advance the use of modern information and communication tools. The courses are implemented at Tomsk State University and help forming modern curriculum in Earth system science area. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grants numbers 13-05-12034 and 14-05-00502.

  12. An international partnership approach to clean energy technology innovation: Carbon capture and storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoliang

    research project collected new data and developed models of collaborative, international technology innovation that can be used in the analysis of policy options for clean energy technology development. The findings show that this bilateral initiative is facilitating the technology learning to some degree, becoming a major component of the U.S.-China climate change collaboration; however, policy makers and collaborative practitioners must overcome political, administrative, cultural, and other challenges in their own national contexts before achieving more concrete outcomes.

  13. An Approach to Understanding Complex Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses to Climate Disruption in the Chesapeake Bay Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, R. K.; Nix, M.; Ihde, A. G.; Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Simpkins, S.; Fountain, G. H.; APl GAIA Team

    2011-12-01

    In this paper we describe the application of a proven methodology for modeling the complex social and economic interactions of a system under stress to the regional issues that are tied to global climate disruption. Under the auspices of the GAIA project (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu), we have investigated simulating the complex interplay between climate, politics, society, industry, and the environment in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and associated geographic areas of Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. This Chesapeake Bay simulation draws on interrelated geophysical and climate models to support decision-making analysis about the Bay. In addition to physical models, however, human activity is also incorporated via input and output calculations. For example, policy implications are modeled in relation to business activities surrounding fishing, farming, industry and manufacturing, land development, and tourism. This approach fosters collaboration among subject matter experts to advance a more complete understanding of the regional impacts of climate change. Simulated interactive competition, in which teams of experts are assigned conflicting objectives in a controlled environment, allow for subject exploration which avoids trivial solutions that neglect the possible responses of affected parties. Results include improved planning, the anticipation of areas of conflict or high risk, and the increased likelihood of developing mutually acceptable solutions.

  14. Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Balali

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.

  15. Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sujaritpong, Sarunya; Dear, Keith; Cope, Martin; Walsh, Sean; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2014-03-01

    Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

  16. ON THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITION TO THE DENGUE INCIDENCES: A SEMIPARAMETRIC PANEL REGRESSION APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutiah Salamah

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is one of the most dangerous diseases in the worlds. In particularly in East Java province Indonesia, dengue has been identified as one of the major causes of death. Hence, it is important to investigate the factors that induce the number of dengue incidences in this region. This study examines climate and socio-economic conditions, which are assumed to influence the number of dengue in the examined region. The semiparametric panel regression approach has been applied and the results are compared with the standard panel regression. In this case, the socio-economic condition is treated parametrically while climate effect is modeled nonparametrically. The analysis showed that the number of dengue incidences is significantly influenced by the income per-capita and the number of inhabitant below 15 years. Furthermore, the dengue incidence is optimum under rainfall of 1500 to 3670 mm, temperature of 22 to 27 degree and humidity of 82 to 87%. The elasticity allows us to identify the most responsive and most irresponsive district towards the changes of climate variable. The study shows that Surabaya is the most responsive district with respect to the change of climate variables.

  17. Health risk in the context of climate change and adaptation - Concept and mapping as an integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienberger, S.; Notenbaert, A.; Zeil, P.; Bett, B.; Hagenlocher, M.; Omolo, A.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change has been stated as being one of the greatest challenges to global health in the current century. Climate change impacts on human health and the socio-economic and related poverty consequences are however still poorly understood. While epidemiological issues are strongly coupled with environmental and climatic parameters, the social and economic circumstances of populations might be of equal or even greater importance when trying to identify vulnerable populations and design appropriate and well-targeted adaptation measures. The inter-linkage between climate change, human health risk and socio-economic impacts remains an important - but largely outstanding - research field. We present an overview on how risk is traditionally being conceptualised in the human health domain and reflect critically on integrated approaches as being currently used in the climate change context. The presentation will also review existing approaches, and how they can be integrated towards adaptation tools. Following this review, an integrated risk concept is being presented, which has been currently adapted under the EC FP7 research project (HEALTHY FUTURES; http://www.healthyfutures.eu/). In this approach, health risk is not only defined through the disease itself (as hazard) but also by the inherent vulnerability of the system, population or region under study. It is in fact the interaction of environment and society that leads to the development of diseases and the subsequent risk of being negatively affected by it. In this conceptual framework vulnerability is being attributed to domains of lack of resilience as well as underlying preconditions determining susceptibilities. To fulfil a holistic picture vulnerability can be associated to social, economic, environmental, institutional, cultural and physical dimensions. The proposed framework also establishes the important nexus to adaptation and how different measures can be related to avoid disease outbreaks, reduce

  18. On the Divergence between Europe and USA in International Climate Negotiation%国际气候谈判中欧美分歧探析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李强

    2011-01-01

    国际合作是人类应对全球气候变化的必然选择.由于利益诉求的差异,各国(国家集团)在国际气候谈判中产生了激烈的矛盾碰撞,导致谈判进程举步维艰.欧美在国际气候谈判中的矛盾是制约谈判进程的关键障碍之一.欧美为维护国家(集团)竞争力和争夺气候谈判领导权,在对待气候变化问题的态度、温室气体减排和构建后京都时代国际气候机制等重大问题上存在着深刻的分歧.%International cooperation is the necessary choice for human beings to cope with global climate change. Due to the differences of interest demands, each country (group) conflicts with each other in the international negotiation so as to make the progress difficult. The contradiction between Europe and USA is one of the key obstacles, between which there are deep divergences on significant issues such as the attitudes towards climate change, greenhouse gas emission reduction and construction of post-Kyoto international climate mechanism.

  19. Climate - Options for broadening climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts JCJH; Asselt H van; Bakker SJA; Bayangos V; Beers C van; Berk MM; Biermann F; Bouwer LM; Bree L van; Coninck HC de; Dorland K; Elzen ME den; Gupta J; Heemst J van; Jansen JC; Kok MTJ; Nabuurs GJ; Veraert J; Verhagen A; Kok MTJ; Coninck HC de; ECN; KMD

    2005-01-01

    In this study ways are explored to increase the policy coherence between the climate regime and a selected number of climate relevant policy areas, by adding a non-climate policy track to national and international climate strategies. The report assesses first the potential, synergies and trade-offs

  20. Climate Change and Conservation Planning in California: The San Francisco Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branciforte, R.; Weiss, S. B.; Schaefer, N.

    2008-12-01

    Climate change threatens California's vast and unique biodiversity. The Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals is a comprehensive regional biodiversity assessment of the 9 counties surrounding San Francisco Bay, and is designing conservation land networks that will serve to protect, manage, and restore that biodiversity. Conservation goals for vegetation, rare plants, mammals, birds, fish, amphibians, reptiles, and invertebrates are set, and those goals are met using the optimization algorithm MARXAN. Climate change issues are being considered in the assessment and network design in several ways. The high spatial variability at mesoclimatic and topoclimatic scales in California creates high local biodiversity, and provides some degree of local resiliency to macroclimatic change. Mesoclimatic variability from 800 m scale PRISM climatic norms is used to assess "mesoclimate spaces" in distinct mountain ranges, so that high mesoclimatic variability, especially local extremes that likely support range limits of species and potential climatic refugia, can be captured in the network. Quantitative measures of network resiliency to climate change include the spatial range of key temperature and precipitation variables within planning units. Topoclimatic variability provides a finer-grained spatial patterning. Downscaling to the topoclimatic scale (10-50 m scale) includes modeling solar radiation across DEMs for predicting maximum temperature differentials, and topographic position indices for modeling minimum temperature differentials. PRISM data are also used to differentiate grasslands into distinct warm and cool types. The overall conservation strategy includes local and regional connectivity so that range shifts can be accommodated.

  1. An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators in a Rural District

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Climate change represents a significant and growing threat to population health. Rural areas face unique challenges, such as high rates of vulnerable populations; economic uncertainty due to their reliance on industries that are vulnerable to climate change; less resilient infrastructure; and lower levels of access to community and emergency services than urban areas. This article fills a gap in public health practice by developing climate and health environmental public health indicators for a local public health department in a rural area. We adapted the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network's framework for climate and health indicators to a seven-county health department in Western Kentucky. Using a three-step review process, we identified primary climate-related environmental public health hazards for the region (extreme heat, drought, and flooding) and a suite of related exposure, health outcome, population vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability indicators. Indicators that performed more poorly at the county level than at the state and national level were defined as “high vulnerability.” Six to eight high vulnerability indicators were identified for each county. The local health department plans to use the results to enhance three key areas of existing services: epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment. PMID:28352286

  2. Late Holocene climate variability in the southwestern Mediterranean region: an integrated marine and terrestrial geochemical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Martín-Puertas

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A combination of marine (Alboran Sea cores, ODP 976 and TTR 300 G and terrestrial (Zoñar Lake, Andalucia, Spain geochemical proxies provides a high-resolution reconstruction of climate variability and human influence in the southwestern Mediterranean region for the last 4000 years at inter-centennial resolution. Proxies respond to changes in precipitation rather than temperature alone. Our combined terrestrial and marine archive documents a succession of dry and wet periods coherent with the North Atlantic climate signal. A dry period occurred prior to 2.7 cal ka BP – synchronously to the global aridity crisis of the third-millennium BC – and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1.4–0.7 cal ka BP. Wetter conditions prevailed from 2.7 to 1.4 cal ka BP. Hydrological signatures during the Little Ice Age are highly variable but consistent with more humidity than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, Pb anomalies in sediments at the end of the Bronze Age suggest anthropogenic pollution earlier than the Roman Empire development in the Iberian Peninsula. The Late Holocene climate evolution of the in the study area confirms the see-saw pattern between the eastern and western Mediterranean regions and the higher influence of the North Atlantic dynamics in the western Mediterranean.

  3. Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raeisaenen, J.; Ruokolainen, L. [University of Helsinki (Finland). Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysics

    2008-09-30

    Weather services base their operational definitions of 'present' climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961-1990 or 1971-2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a 'delta change' method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991-2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961-1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8-9 months per year and 8-9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971-2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.

  4. Regional and international approaches on prevention and control of animal transboundary and emerging diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domenech, J; Lubroth, J; Eddi, C; Martin, V; Roger, F

    2006-10-01

    Transboundary animal diseases pose a serious risk to the world animal agriculture and food security and jeopardize international trade. The world has been facing devastating economic losses from major outbreaks of transboundary animal diseases (TADs) such as foot-and-mouth disease, classical swine fever, rinderpest, peste des petits ruminants (PPR), and Rift Valley fever. Lately the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) due to H5N1 virus, has become an international crisis as all regions around the world can be considered at risk. In the past decades, public health authorities within industrialized countries have been faced with an increasing number of food safety issues. The situation is equally serious in developing countries. The globalization of food (and feed) trade, facilitated by the liberalization of world trade, while offering many benefits and opportunities, also represents new risks. The GF-TADs Global Secretariat has carried out several regional consultations for the identification of priority diseases and best ways for their administration, prevention and control. In the questionnaires carried out and through the consultative process, it was noted that globally, FMD was ranked as the first and foremost priority. Rift Valley fever, and today highly pathogenic avian influenza, are defined as major animal diseases which also affect human health. PPR and CBPP, a disease which is particularly serious in Africa and finally, African swine fever (ASF) and classical swine fever (CSF) are also regionally recognised as top priorities on which the Framework is determined to work. The FAO philosophy--shared by the OIE--embraces the need to prevent and control TADs and emerging diseases at their source, which is most of the time in developing countries. Regional and international approaches have to be followed, and the FAO and OIE GF-TADs initiative provides the appropriate concepts and objectives as well as an organizational framework to link international and

  5. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.; Zanuttigh, Barbara; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2014-01-01

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, Coastal Risk Managem...

  6. Can we still comply with the maximum limit of 2°C? Approaches to a New Climate Contract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. J. Radermacher

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The international climate policy is in trouble. CO2 emissions are rising instead of shrinking. The 2025 climate summit in Paris should lead to a global agreement, but what should be its design? In an earlier paper in Cadmus on the issue, the author outlined a contract formula based on the so-called ‘Copenhagen Accord’ that is based on a dynamic cap and an intelligent burden sharing between politics and the private sector. The private sector was brought into the deal via the idea of a voluntary climate neutrality of private emissions culminating in a ‘Global Neutral’ promoted by the United Nations. All this was based on a global cap-and-trade system. For a number of reasons, it may be that a global cap-and-trade system cannot or will not be established. States may use other instruments to fulfil their promises. The present paper elaborates that even under such conditions, the basic proposal can still be implemented. This may prove useful for the Paris negotiations.

  7. A multimethod approach for cross-cultural training in an internal medicine residency program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa J. Staton

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cultural competence training in residency is important to improve learners’ confidence in cross-cultural encounters. Recognition of cultural diversity and avoidance of cultural stereotypes are essential for health care providers. Methods: We developed a multimethod approach for cross-cultural training of Internal Medicine residents and evaluated participants’ preparedness for cultural encounters. The multimethod approach included (1 a conference series, (2 a webinar with a national expert, (3 small group sessions, (4 a multicultural social gathering, (5 a Grand Rounds presentation on cross-cultural training, and (6 an interactive, online case-based program. Results: The program had 35 participants, 28 of whom responded to the survey. Of those, 16 were white (62%, and residents comprised 71% of respondents (n=25. Following training, 89% of participants were more comfortable obtaining a social history. However, prior to the course only 27% were comfortable caring for patients who distrust the US system and 35% could identify religious beliefs and customs which impact care. Most (71% believed that the training would help them give better care for patients from different cultures, and 63% felt more comfortable negotiating a treatment plan following the course. Conclusions: Multimethod training may improve learners’ confidence and comfort with cross-cultural encounters, as well as lay the foundation for ongoing learning. Follow-up is needed to assess whether residents’ perceived comfort will translate into improved patient outcomes.

  8. The European Union's Adequacy Approach to Privacy and International Data Sharing in Health Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoddart, Jennifer; Chan, Benny; Joly, Yann

    2016-03-01

    The European Union (EU) approach to data protection consists of assessing the adequacy of the data protection offered by the laws of a particular jurisdiction against a set of principles that includes purpose limitation, transparency, quality, proportionality, security, access, and rectification. The EU's Data Protection Directive sets conditions on the transfer of data to third countries by prohibiting Member States from transferring to such countries as have been deemed inadequate in terms of the data protection regimes. In theory, each jurisdiction is evaluated similarly and must be found fully compliant with the EU's data protection principles to be considered adequate. In practice, the inconsistency with which these evaluations are made presents a hurdle to international data-sharing and makes difficult the integration of different data-sharing approaches; in the 20 years since the Directive was first adopted, the laws of only five countries from outside of the EU, Economic Area, or the European Free Trade Agreement have been deemed adequate to engage in data transfers without the need for further administrative safeguards.

  9. Plantinga\\\\\\'s Internal and External Approach toRationality of Belief in God

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Farajipak

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Various views about the rationality/irrationality of believing in God have been suggested by western religious and secular thinners. The theory of "Basicalism" together with its similar views such as "Evidentialism", "Fideism" and"Pragmatism" is one of the epistemological views posed about the belief in God and seeks to prove its rationality. In general, based on this view, believing in God does not require any rational reasoning. Various versions of this view have been presented so far.One of its versions expressed by scholars like Swinburne, Alston and Plantinga is what is known as Experientialism. In his special exposition of Experientialism – which he refers to as "reformed epistemology" –Plantinga has had two different dictions in his works. In his early woks such as God and other Minds, "Is Belief in God Rational?", "Is Belief in God Properly Basic?" and"Reformed Epistemology and Christian Apologetics", he endeavored to prove the rationality and justificationof believing in God and tried to offer certain and compelling arguments to prove the existence of God. In these works, Plantinga has adopted an internal approach toward the rationality of believing in God and regards it as a basic belief. Criticizing classic foundationalism, he sought to expand a different version of foundationalism according to which God's existence is regarded as basic for a believer. Based on this approach, Palntinga, like other proponents of foundationalism, considers the knowledgea "True Justified Belief". His view is, however, different from other foundationalists in defining the nature of the third element of knowledge. According to Plantinga's early exposition of his theory, the criteria of rationality of believing in God include the principles of classic foundationalism(such as evident to senses, evident to reason and incorrigibility and other elements. He rejected the deductive-priori method concerning the criteria of determining basic belief and

  10. Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Gajanan Bhave

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation is unavoidable, particularly in developing countries where the adaptation deficit is often larger than in developed countries. Robust Decision Making (RDM approaches are considered useful for supporting adaptation decision making, yet case study applications in developing countries are rare. This review paper examines the potential to expand the geographical and sectoral foci of RDM as part of the repertoire of approaches to support adaptation. We review adaptation decision problems hitherto relatively unexplored, for which RDM approaches may have value. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches, suggest potential sectors for application and comment on future directions. We identify that data requirements, lack of examples of RDM in actual decision-making, limited applicability for surprise events, and resource constraints are likely to constrain successful application of RDM approaches in developing countries. We discuss opportunities for RDM approaches to address decision problems associated with urban socio-environmental and water-energy-food nexus issues, forest resources management, disaster risk management and conservation management issues. We examine potential entry points for RDM approaches through Environmental Impact Assessments and Strategic Environmental Assessments, which are relatively well established in decision making processes in many developing countries. We conclude that despite some barriers, and with modification, RDM approaches show potential for wider application in developing country contexts.

  11. Climate change economics on a small island: new approaches for Tobago

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, Murray [University of Oxford (United Kingdom); Birch, Tom

    2011-01-15

    For small islands like Tobago — that depend heavily on tourism driven by their natural 'beauty' — climate change poses a double-edged threat on supply and demand. Rising sea levels, increasing temperatures and more frequent and intense storms will damage the island's natural assets, such as coral reefs and beaches. This could have a heavy impact on tourism, which will also be affected by climate policy in 'source' countries. But what exactly will that impact be? How much will it cost? And what can be done about it? Traditional economic analysis is ill-equipped to answer these questions because it offers static and highly uncertain models and assessments of damage and loss, rather than flexible response options that consider system dynamics. We urgently need to use and expand new forms of economic analysis to better support the difficult decisions that Caribbean policymakers face as a result of climate change.

  12. Enhancing urban resilience in face of climate change: a methodological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Galderisi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change can be considered as one of the main environmental topic of the 21st century (IPCC, 2011. It poses a serious challenge for cities all over the world (EEA, 2012: cities show, on the one hand  a high level of vulnerability in face of climate change, on the other hand, they are responsible for 60% to 80% of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, which represent the main causes of change in climate conditions.In 2011, the 73% of European population was living in urban areas and the level of urbanization is expected to be at 82% by 2050 (UN, 2012. Due to the evidence that in Europe the 69% of all GHG emissions are currently generated by cities, larger and larger is the attention devoted, by scientific literature and policy makers, to outline strategies for urban adaptation to climate change, both at European and local scale.Governments and scholars currently highlight the need for strengthening urban resilience in face of climate change and related consequences. By this perspective, some actions are already running, even though a clear identification of the features which make a city resilient in face of climate change is still missing.To fill this gap, this contribution is mainly addressed to:-  provide, by integrating different disciplinary perspectives, a conceptual model of the set of adaptive capacities and properties that characterize a resilient system;- verify, starting from a snapshot of current strategies and actions for urban adaptation currently implemented at European level, the consistency between those strategies and the identified set of resilience capacities and properties.

  13. Assessing the Role of Energy in Development and Climate Policies - Conceptual Approach and Key Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Garg, Amit

    2011-01-01

    Africa, and some other countries. It concludes that energy plays an important role as a productivity enhancing factor in economic development and in human well being. Several policy goals related to sustainable development, energy, and climate can be integrated. However, meeting all these policy goals......The paper discusses a number of key conceptual issues related to the role of energy in development and its potential synergies and tradeoffs with climate change. The relationship between economic development and energy over time is discussed and illustrated by data from China, India and South...

  14. A new hierarchical Bayesian approach to analyse environmental and climatic influences on debris flow occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomelli, Vincent; Pavlova, Irina; Eckert, Nicolas; Grancher, Delphine; Brunstein, Daniel

    2015-12-01

    How can debris flow occurrences be modelled at regional scale and take both environmental and climatic conditions into account? And, of the two, which has the most influence on debris flow activity? In this paper, we try to answer these questions with an innovative Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic model that simultaneously accounts for how debris flows respond to environmental and climatic variables. In it, full decomposition of space and time effects in occurrence probabilities is assumed, revealing an environmental and a climatic trend shared by all years/catchments, respectively, clearly distinguished from residual "random" effects. The resulting regional and annual occurrence probabilities evaluated as functions of the covariates make it possible to weight the respective contribution of the different terms and, more generally, to check the model performances at different spatio-temporal scales. After suitable validation, the model can be used to make predictions at undocumented sites and could be used in further studies for predictions under future climate conditions. Also, the Bayesian paradigm easily copes with missing data, thus making it possible to account for events that may have been missed during surveys. As a case study, we extract 124 debris flow event triggered between 1970 and 2005 in 27 catchments located in the French Alps from the French national natural hazard survey and model their variability of occurrence considering environmental and climatic predictors at the same time. We document the environmental characteristics of each debris flow catchment (morphometry, lithology, land cover, and the presence of permafrost). We also compute 15 climate variables including mean temperature and precipitation between May and October and the number of rainy days with daily cumulative rainfall greater than 10/15/20/25/30/40 mm day- 1. Application of our model shows that the combination of environmental and climatic predictors explained 77% of the overall

  15. Biomimicry as an approach for sustainable architecture case of arid regions with hot and dry climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouabdallah, Nabila; M'sellem, Houda; Alkama, Djamel

    2016-07-01

    This paper aims to study the problem of thermal comfort inside buildings located in hot and arid climates. The principal idea behind this research is using concepts based on the potential of nature as an instrument that helps creating appropriate facades with the environment "building skin". The biomimetic architecture imitates nature through the study of form, function, behaviour and ecosystems of biological organisms. This research aims to clarify the possibilities that can be offered by biomimicry architecture to develop architectural bio-inspired building's design that can help to enhance indoor thermal ambiance in buildings located in hot and dry climate which helps to achieve thermal comfort for users.

  16. EDITORIAL: Dialog on Science and Policy to Address the Climate Crisis to conclude the International Association of Research Universities Climate Congress, Copenhagen, Denmark Dialog on Science and Policy to Address the Climate Crisis to conclude the International Association of Research Universities Climate Congress, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, Paul; Kammen, Daniel M.

    2009-06-01

    This is not the usual Editor-in-Chief letter, namely one that focuses on the accomplishments of the journal—and for ERL they have been numerous this year—but a recognition of the critical time that we are now in when it comes to addressing not only global climate change, but also the dialog between science and politics. In recognition of the many 'tipping points' that we now confront—ideally some of them positive social moments—as well as the clear scientific conclusion that environmental tipping points are points of long-lasting disruption, this paper takes a different form than I might have otherwise written. While the scientific body of knowledge around global environmental change mounts, so too, do the hopeful signs that change can happen. The election of Barack Obama is unquestionably one such sign, witnessed by the exceptional interest that his story has brought not only to US politics, but also to global views of the potential of the United States, as well as to the potential role of science and investigation in addressing pressing issues. In light of these inter-related issues, reproduced here—largely due to the efforts of Paul Baer to transcribe a remarkable conversation—is a dialog not only on the science of global warming and the potential set of means to address this issue, but also on the interaction between research, science and the political process. The dialog itself is sufficiently important that I will dispense with the usual discussion of the exciting recognition that ERL has received with an ISI rating (a factor rapidly increasing), the high levels of downloads of our papers (for some articles over 5000 and counting), and the many news and scientific publications picking up ERL articles (in recent days alone Science, Environmental Science and Technology, and The Economist). This conversation was the concluding plenary session of the 10-12 March International Association of Research Universities (IARU) Conference on Climate Change

  17. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle Project: Using a systems approach to understand carbon and the Earth's climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverberg, S. K.; Ollinger, S. V.; Martin, M. E.; Gengarelly, L. M.; Schloss, A. L.; Bourgeault, J. L.; Randolph, G.; Albrechtova, J.

    2009-12-01

    National Science Content Standards identify systems as an important unifying concept across the K-12 curriculum. While this standard exists, there is a recognized gap in the ability of students to use a systems thinking approach in their learning. In a similar vein, both popular media as well as some educational curricula move quickly through climate topics to carbon footprint analyses without ever addressing the nature of carbon or the carbon cycle. If students do not gain a concrete understanding of carbon’s role in climate and energy they will not be able to successfully tackle global problems and develop innovative solutions. By participating in the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project, students learn to use a systems thinking approach, while at the same time, gaining a foundation in the carbon cycle and it's relation to climate and energy. Here we present the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project and materials, which incorporate a diverse set of activities geared toward upper middle and high school students with a variety of learning styles. A global carbon cycle adventure story and game let students see the carbon cycle as a complete system, while introducing them to systems thinking concepts including reservoirs, fluxes and equilibrium. Classroom photosynthesis experiments and field measurements of schoolyard vegetation brings the global view to the local level. And the use of computer models at varying levels of complexity (effects on photosynthesis, biomass and carbon storage in global biomes, global carbon cycle) not only reinforces systems concepts and carbon content, but also introduces students to an important scientific tool necessary for understanding climate change.

  18. Calculation of Internal Energy and Pressure of Dense hydrogen Plasma by Direct Path Integral Monte Carlo Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘松芬; 胡北来

    2003-01-01

    The internal energy and pressure of dense hydrogen plasma are calculated by the direct path integral Monte Carlo approach. The Kelbg potential is used as interaction potentials both between electrons and between protons and electrons in the calculation. The complete formulae for internal energy and pressure in dense hydrogen plasma derived for the simulation are presented. The correctness of the derived formulae are validated by the obtained simulation results. The numerical results are discussed in details.

  19. Twenty-first century approaches to ancient problems: Climate and society

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Alpoim Guedes, Jade A.; Crabtree, Stefani A.; Bocinsky, R. Kyle; Kohler, Timothy A.

    2016-12-01

    By documenting how humans adapted to changes in their environment that are often much greater than those experienced in the instrumental record, archaeology provides our only deep-time laboratory for highlighting the circumstances under which humans managed or failed to find to adaptive solutions to changing climate, not just over a few generations but over the longue durée. Patterning between climate-mediated environmental change and change in human societies has, however, been murky because of low spatial and temporal resolution in available datasets, and because of failure to model the effects of climate change on local resources important to human societies. In this paper we review recent advances in computational modeling that, in conjunction with improving data, address these limitations. These advances include network analysis, niche and species distribution modeling, and agent-based modeling. These studies demonstrate the utility of deep-time modeling for calibrating our understanding of how climate is influencing societies today and may in the future.

  20. Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment Programs and Approaches to Account for Effects (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This final report uses biological data collected by four states in wadeable rivers and streams to examine the components of state and tribal bioassessment and biomonitoring programs that may be vulnerable to climate change. The study investigates the potential to identify biologi...

  1. A survey of computer-based approaches for greenhouse climate management.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schotman, P.J.

    1996-01-01

    This study recapitulates research efforts that have addressed the restricted problem of greenhouse climate management. This problem is first analyzed by looking at the current working method of the grower and the characteristics of this management task. The different attempts to automate parts of ma

  2. Opportunities and Examples for Integration of Socio-environmental Approaches to Support Climate-informed Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    Climate and environmental decisions require science that couples human and natural systems to quantify or articulate the observed physical, natural, and societal changes or likely consequences of different decision options. Despite the need for such policy-relevant research, multidisciplinary collaborations can be wrought with challenges of data integration, model interoperability, and communication across disciplinary divides. In this talk, I will present several examples where I have collaborated with colleagues from the physical, natural, and social sciences to develop novel, actionable science to inform decision-making. Specifically, I will discuss a cost analysis of water and sediment diversions to optimize land building in the Mississippi River delta (winner of American Geophysical Union Water Resources Research Editor's Choice Award 2014) and the development of a National Climate Indicator System that uses knowledge across the physical, natural, and social sciences to establish an end-to-end indicator system of climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. The latter project is in the process of moving from research to operations, an additional challenge and opportunity, as we work with the U.S. Global Change Research Program and their affiliated Federal agencies to establish it beyond the research prototype. Using these examples, I will provide some lessons learned that would have general applicability to socio-environmental research collaborations and integration of data, models, and information systems to support climate and environmental decision-making.

  3. A top-down approach to projecting market impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemoine, Derek; Kapnick, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, economic models require estimates of how future climate change will affect well-being. So far, nearly all estimates of the economic impacts of future warming have been developed by combining estimates of impacts in individual sectors of the economy. Recent work has used variation in warming over time and space to produce top-down estimates of how past climate and weather shocks have affected economic output. Here we propose a statistical framework for converting these top-down estimates of past economic costs of regional warming into projections of the economic cost of future global warming. Combining the latest physical climate models, socioeconomic projections, and economic estimates of past impacts, we find that future warming could raise the expected rate of economic growth in richer countries, reduce the expected rate of economic growth in poorer countries, and increase the variability of growth by increasing the climate's variability. This study suggests we should rethink the focus on global impacts and the use of deterministic frameworks for modelling impacts and policy.

  4. 76 FR 55673 - Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-08

    ... Using Expert Judgment, Volume I: Results for the San Francisco Estuary Partnership and Volume II... Partnership (EPA/600/R-11/ 058a) and Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries... (EPA/600/R-11/058b). The EPA also is announcing that Eastern Research Group, an EPA contractor...

  5. The Icarus challenge - Predicting vulnerability to climate change using an algorithm-based species’ trait approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Like Icarus, the world’s ecological resources are “flying too close” to the sun, and climate change will impact near-coastal species through temperature, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification and indirectly through changes in invasive species and land-use patt...

  6. Climate change and N2O emissions from South West England grasslands: A modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalos, Diego; Cardenas, Laura M.; Wu, Lianhai

    2016-05-01

    Unravelling the impacts of climate change on agriculture becomes increasingly important, as the rates and magnitude of its effects are accelerating. Current estimates of the consequences of climate change on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions remain largely uncertain; there is a need for more consistent and comprehensive assessments of this impact. In this study we explored the implications of two IPCC climate change projections (high and medium emissions scenarios) on N2O emissions from South West England grasslands for the time slices of a baseline, the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s, employing a process-based model (SPACSYS). The model was initially calibrated and validated using datasets collected from three grassland sites of the region. Statistical analysis showed that simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values. We found a consistent increase in N2O emissions of up to 94% under future climate change scenarios compared to those under the baseline, and warming rather than precipitation variability was the overriding factor controlling the N2O rise. Modelling fertilizer forms showed that replacing ammonium-nitrate fertilizers with urea or slurry significantly reduced N2O emissions (c. 30%). Our study highlights the urgent necessity to adopt viable N2O mitigation measures now in order to avoid higher emissions in the future.

  7. Changes in Wave Climate from a Multi-model Global Statistical projection approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camus, Paula; Menendez, Melisa; Perez, Jorge; Losada, Inigo

    2016-04-01

    Despite their outstanding relevance in coastal impacts related to climate change (i.e. inundation, global beach erosion), ensemble products of global wave climate projections from the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) described by the IPCC are rather limited. This work shows a global study of changes in wave climate under several scenarios in which a new statistical method is applied. The method is based on the statistical relationship between meteorological conditions over the geographical area of wave generation (predictor) and the resulting wave characteristics for a particular location (predictand). The atmospheric input variables used in the statistical method are sea level pressure anomalies and gradients over the spatial and time scales information characterized by ESTELA maps (Perez et al. 2014). ESTELA provides a characterization of the area of wave influence of any particular ocean location worldwide, which includes contour lines of wave energy and isochrones of travel time in that area. Principal components is then applied over the sea level pressure information of the ESTELA region in order to define a multi-regression statistical model based on several data mining techniques. Once the multi-regression technique is defined and validated from historical information of atmospheric reanalysis (predictor) and wave hindcast (predictand) this method has been applied by using more than 35 Global Climate Models from CMIP5 to estimate changes in several parameters of the sea state (e.g. significant wave height, peak period) at seasonal and annual scale during the last decades of 21st century. The uncertainty of the estimated wave climate changes in the ensemble is also provided and discussed.

  8. Global topics and novel approaches in the study of air pollution, climate change and forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, Pierre; Augustaitis, Algirdas; Belyazid, Salim; Calfapietra, Carlo; de Marco, Alessandra; Fenn, Mark; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Grulke, Nancy; He, Shang; Matyssek, Rainer; Serengil, Yusuf; Wieser, Gerhard; Paoletti, Elena

    2016-06-01

    Research directions from the 27th conference for Specialists in Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Forest Ecosystems (2015) reflect knowledge advancements about (i) Mechanistic bases of tree responses to multiple climate and pollution stressors, in particular the interaction of ozone (O3) with nitrogen (N) deposition and drought; (ii) Linking genetic control with physiological whole-tree activity; (iii) Epigenetic responses to climate change and air pollution; (iv) Embedding individual tree performance into the multi-factorial stand-level interaction network; (v) Interactions of biogenic and anthropogenic volatile compounds (molecular, functional and ecological bases); (vi) Estimating the potential for carbon/pollution mitigation and cost effectiveness of urban and peri-urban forests; (vii) Selection of trees adapted to the urban environment; (viii) Trophic, competitive and host/parasite relationships under changing pollution and climate; (ix) Atmosphere-biosphere-pedosphere interactions as affected by anthropospheric changes; (x) Statistical analyses for epidemiological investigations; (xi) Use of monitoring for the validation of models; (xii) Holistic view for linking the climate, carbon, N and O3 modelling; (xiii) Inclusion of multiple environmental stresses (biotic and abiotic) in critical load determinations; (xiv) Ecological impacts of N deposition in the under-investigated areas; (xv) Empirical models for mechanistic effects at the local scale; (xvi) Broad-scale N and sulphur deposition input and their effects on forest ecosystem services; (xvii) Measurements of dry deposition of N; (xviii) Assessment of evapotranspiration; (xix) Remote sensing assessment of hydrological parameters; and (xx) Forest management for maximizing water provision and overall forest ecosystem services. Ground-level O3 is still the phytotoxic air pollutant of major concern to forest health. Specific issues about O3 are: (xxi) Developing dose-response relationships and

  9. Climate change, livelihoods and the multiple determinants of water adequacy: two approaches at regional to global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lissner, Tabea; Reusser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Inadequate access to water is already a problem in many regions of the world and processes of global change are expected to further exacerbate the situation. Many aspects determine the adequacy of water resources: beside actual physical water stress, where the resource itself is limited, economic and social water stress can be experienced if access to resource is limited by inadequate infrastructure, political or financial constraints. To assess the adequacy of water availability for human use, integrated approaches are needed that allow to view the multiple determinants in conjunction and provide sound results as a basis for informed decisions. This contribution proposes two parts of an integrated approach to look at the multiple dimensions of water scarcity at regional to global scale. These were developed in a joint project with the German Development Agency (GIZ). It first outlines the AHEAD approach to measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development, implemented at global scale and at national resolution. This first approach allows viewing impacts of climate change, e.g. changes in water availability, within the wider context of AHEAD conditions. A specific focus lies on the uncertainties in projections of climate change and future water availability. As adequate water access is not determined by water availability alone, in a second step we develop an approach to assess the water requirements for different sectors in more detail, including aspects of quantity, quality as well as access, in an integrated way. This more detailed approach is exemplified at region-scale in Indonesia and South Africa. Our results show that in many regions of the world, water scarcity is a limitation to AHEAD conditions in many countries, regardless of differing modelling output. The more detailed assessments highlight the relevance of additional aspects to assess the adequacy of water for human use, showing that in many regions, quality and

  10. PREFACE: The Second International Conference on Inverse Problems: Recent Theoretical Developments and Numerical Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jin; Hon, Yiu-Chung; Seo, Jin Keun; Yamamoto, Masahiro

    2005-01-01

    The Second International Conference on Inverse Problems: Recent Theoretical Developments and Numerical Approaches was held at Fudan University, Shanghai from 16-21 June 2004. The first conference in this series was held at the City University of Hong Kong in January 2002 and it was agreed to hold the conference once every two years in a Pan-Pacific Asian country. The next conference is scheduled to be held at Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan in July 2006. The purpose of this series of biennial conferences is to establish and develop constant international collaboration, especially among the Pan-Pacific Asian countries. In recent decades, interest in inverse problems has been flourishing all over the globe because of both the theoretical interest and practical requirements. In particular, in Asian countries, one is witnessing remarkable new trends of research in inverse problems as well as the participation of many young talents. Considering these trends, the second conference was organized with the chairperson Professor Li Tat-tsien (Fudan University), in order to provide forums for developing research cooperation and to promote activities in the field of inverse problems. Because solutions to inverse problems are needed in various applied fields, we entertained a total of 92 participants at the second conference and arranged various talks which ranged from mathematical analyses to solutions of concrete inverse problems in the real world. This volume contains 18 selected papers, all of which have undergone peer review. The 18 papers are classified as follows: Surveys: four papers give reviews of specific inverse problems. Theoretical aspects: six papers investigate the uniqueness, stability, and reconstruction schemes. Numerical methods: four papers devise new numerical methods and their applications to inverse problems. Solutions to applied inverse problems: four papers discuss concrete inverse problems such as scattering problems and inverse problems in

  11. Geoengineering and the ‘security hazard’: the international politics of a ‘Plan B’ for tackling climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corry, Olaf

    2016-01-01

    Geoengineering – the deliberate manipulation of the climate (more accurately labeled ‘climate engineering’) – is rising rapidly up the policy agenda. A leading discourse frames it as a ‘plan B’ that should be prepared in case political obstacles continue to thwart effective mitigation. Diverse....... It argues that dividing climate policies into two distinct ‘plan A’ and ‘plan B’ has at least three other performative effects: it prioritizes certain fast-working methods such as stratospheric aerosol injection; it assumes this would be politically feasible; and it obscures potential difficulties...

  12. Developing Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in the New York City Infrastructure-Shed: Process, Approach, Tools, and Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William D.; Blake, Reginald; Bowman, Malcolm; Faris, Craig; Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Jacob, Klaus; LeBlanc, Alice; Leichenko, Robin; Linkin, Megan; Major, David; O'Grady, Megan; Patrick, Lesley; Sussman, Edna; Yohe, Gary; Zimmerman, Rae

    2010-01-01

    While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be beyond the range of current capacity because an extreme event might cause flooding and inundation beyond the planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation approach and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder-scientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.

  13. a system approach to the long term forecasting of the climat data in baikal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abasov, N.; Berezhnykh, T.

    2003-04-01

    The Angara river running from Baikal with a cascade of hydropower plants built on it plays a peculiar role in economy of the region. With view of high variability of water inflow into the rivers and lakes (long-term low water periods and catastrophic floods) that is due to climatic peculiarities of the water resource formation, a long-term forecasting is developed and applied for risk decreasing at hydropower plants. Methodology and methods of long-term forecasting of natural-climatic processes employs some ideas of the research schools by Academician I.P.Druzhinin and Prof. A.P.Reznikhov and consists in detailed investigation of cause-effect relations, finding out physical analogs and their application to formalized methods of long-term forecasting. They are divided into qualitative (background method; method of analogs based on solar activity), probabilistic and approximative methods (analog-similarity relations; discrete-continuous model). These forecasting methods have been implemented in the form of analytical aids of the information-forecasting software "GIPSAR" that provides for some elements of artificial intelligence. Background forecasts of the runoff of the Ob, the Yenisei, the Angara Rivers in the south of Siberia are based on space-time regularities that were revealed on taking account of the phase shifts in occurrence of secular maxima and minima on integral-difference curves of many-year hydrological processes in objects compared. Solar activity plays an essential role in investigations of global variations of climatic processes. Its consideration in the method of superimposed epochs has allowed a conclusion to be made on the higher probability of the low-water period in the actual inflow to Lake Baikal that takes place on the increasing branch of solar activity of its 11-year cycle. The higher probability of a high-water period is observed on the decreasing branch of solar activity from the 2nd to the 5th year after its maximum. Probabilistic method

  14. A multi-dimensional approach for describing internal bleeding in an artery: implications for Doppler ultrasound guiding HIFU hemostasis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Di; Zhang, Dong; Guo, Xiasheng; Gong, Xiufen; Fei, Xingbo

    2008-09-01

    Doppler ultrasound has shown promise in detecting and localizing internal bleeding. A mathematical approach was developed to describe the internal bleeding of the injured artery surrounded by tissue. This approach consisted of a two-dimensional (2D) model describing the injured vessel and a one-dimensional model (1D) mimicking the downstream of the vessel system. The validity of this approach was confirmed by both the numerical simulation and in vivo measurement of a normal porcine femoral artery. Furthermore, the artery was injured using a 16-gauge needle to model a penetrating injury. The velocity waveform at the puncture site was modeled and compared with those at the upstream and downstream of the artery. The results demonstrated that there was a significant increase in magnitude and a phase lag for the peak systolic velocity at the injury site. These results were qualitatively in agreement with the in vivo experiment. Flow turbulence indicated by this approach was also observed in a color Doppler image in the form of a checkered color pattern. This approach might be useful for quantitative internal bleeding detection and localization. Also, the phase lag of the peak systolic velocity was indicated to be potential in the application of internal bleeding detection.

  15. A multi-dimensional approach for describing internal bleeding in an artery: implications for Doppler ultrasound guiding HIFU hemostasis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang Di; Zhang Dong; Guo Xiasheng; Gong Xiufen [Institute of Acoustics, Key Laboratory of Modern Acoustics (Nanjing University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Fei Xingbo [Beijing Yuande Biomedical Company, Beijing 100176 (China)], E-mail: dzhang@nju.edu.cn

    2008-09-21

    Doppler ultrasound has shown promise in detecting and localizing internal bleeding. A mathematical approach was developed to describe the internal bleeding of the injured artery surrounded by tissue. This approach consisted of a two-dimensional (2D) model describing the injured vessel and a one-dimensional model (1D) mimicking the downstream of the vessel system. The validity of this approach was confirmed by both the numerical simulation and in vivo measurement of a normal porcine femoral artery. Furthermore, the artery was injured using a 16-gauge needle to model a penetrating injury. The velocity waveform at the puncture site was modeled and compared with those at the upstream and downstream of the artery. The results demonstrated that there was a significant increase in magnitude and a phase lag for the peak systolic velocity at the injury site. These results were qualitatively in agreement with the in vivo experiment. Flow turbulence indicated by this approach was also observed in a color Doppler image in the form of a checkered color pattern. This approach might be useful for quantitative internal bleeding detection and localization. Also, the phase lag of the peak systolic velocity was indicated to be potential in the application of internal bleeding detection.

  16. NODC Standard Product: International ocean atlas Volume 12 - Climatic atlas of the North Pacific Seas 2009 (NODC Accession 0098576)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Atlas contains monthly climatic charts of temperature, salinity, and oxygen at the sea surface and at standard depth levels for the Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk,...

  17. Mentoring SFRM: A New Approach to International Space Station Flight Controller Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huning, Therese; Barshi, Immanuel; Schmidt, Lacey

    2008-01-01

    The Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) of the Johnson Space Center is responsible for providing continuous operations support for the International Space Station (ISS). Operations support requires flight controllers who are skilled in team performance as well as the technical operations of the ISS. Space Flight Resource Management (SFRM), a NASA adapted variant of Crew Resource Management (CRM), is the competency model used in the MOD. ISS flight controller certification has evolved to include a balanced focus on development of SFRM and technical expertise. The latest challenge the MOD faces is how to certify an ISS flight controller (operator) to a basic level of effectiveness in 1 year. SFRM training uses a two-pronged approach to expediting operator certification: 1) imbed SFRM skills training into all operator technical training and 2) use senior flight controllers as mentors. This paper focuses on how the MOD uses senior flight controllers as mentors to train SFRM skills. Methods: A mentor works with an operator throughout the training flow. Inserted into the training flow are guided-discussion sessions and on-the-job observation opportunities focusing on specific SFRM skills, including: situational leadership, conflict management, stress management, cross-cultural awareness, self care and team care while on-console, communication, workload management, and situation awareness. The mentor and operator discuss the science and art behind the skills, cultural effects on skills applications, recognition of good and bad skills applications, recognition of how skills application changes subtly in different situations, and individual goals and techniques for improving skills. Discussion: This mentoring program provides an additional means of transferring SFRM knowledge compared to traditional CRM training programs. Our future endeavors in training SFRM skills (as well as other organization s) may benefit from adding team performance skills mentoring. This paper

  18. Tailwind for the climate protection? New ways to maintain international financial commitments; Rueckenwind fuer den Klimaschutz? Neue Wege zur Einhaltung internationaler Finanzzusagen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schroeder, Frank

    2011-02-15

    The contribution under consideration reports on the upcoming challenges of the climate protection financing in developing countries. The extent of the probably required financing and the current status of the development of the developed countries are presented. Ambiguities regarding the out-payment and tracking of the financial contributions for the climate protection are described. Subsequently, a series of general criteria for the evaluation of the different financing sources are invoked. These criteria are based on principles originated from the UNFCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; Bonn, Federal Republic of Germany) climate protection negotiations and consider a broader development political context and certain equity considerations. The advantages and disadvantages of potential sources of income of developed countries are discussed in order to fulfil promises for new and additional resources for adaptation measures and preventative measures in developing countries. These arguments are embedded in a general structure and classified with respect to their revenue potential and political feasibility. This analysis is closely based on a methodological approach and on the suggestions made by the AGF. The analysis closes with a brief assessment of the possible effects of the activities of AGF on the Government decision-makers. Furthermore the analysis shows how their results may strengthen the mutual trust of the countries in order to contribute to the climate agreement as well as to the national action.

  19. An Online Approach to Teaching International Outsourcing in Technical Communication Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    St. Amant, Kirk

    2005-01-01

    The growth of international online access has given rise to a new production method--international outsourcing--that has important implications for technical communication practices. Successful interactions within international outsourcing require individuals to understand how cultural factors could affect online interactions. Today's technical…

  20. A Learning-Curve Approach to the Self-Assessment of Internal Medicine Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Susan C.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    In response to the perceived need for primary care physicians, two major changes in internal medicine training have occurred: (1) a third year of general training was required for internal medicine board certification and (2) many hospitals developed primary care internal medicine residencies with an increased emphasis on ambulatory training.…

  1. Climate Action Tracker Update. Climate Shuffle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoehne, N.; Fekete, H.; Vieweg, M.; Hare, B.; Schaeffer, M.; Rocha, M.; Larkin, J.; Guetschow, J.; Jeffery, L.

    2011-11-15

    The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) compares and assesses national and global action against a range of different climate targets across all relevant time frames, starting with an ongoing analysis of countries' current emission reduction pledges. National action on climate change mitigation appears to be joining the international climate negotiations in the new and ever popular 'climate shuffle' dance. It involves maximum effort and motion while staying in the same spot, or even, in some cases, going backwards. Recent emissions trends and estimates of the effects of those policies in place and proposed lead to a new estimate that warming is likely to approach 4C by 2100, significantly above the warming that would result from full implementation of the pledges (3.3C). The continuous global fossil-fuel intensive development of the past decade suggests that high warming levels of 4C are more plausible than assuming full implementation of current pledges. Evidence is ever increasing that existing and planned policies are not sufficient for countries to meet these pledges.

  2. Quantitative assessment of drivers of recent climate variability: An information theoretic approach

    CERN Document Server

    Bhaskar, Ankush; Vichare, Geeta; Koganti, Triven; Gurubaran, S

    2016-01-01

    Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent climate variability remain a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized variant. It distinctly quantifies actual information exchanged along with the directional flow of information between any two variables with no bearing on their common history or inputs, unlike correlation, mutual information etc. Measurements of greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4, and N2O; volcanic aerosols; solar activity: UV radiation, total solar irradiance (TSI ) and cosmic ray flux (CR); El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (GMTA) made during 1984-2005 are utilized to distinguish driving and responding climate signals. Estimates of their relative contributions reveal that CO 2 (~24%), CH 4 (~19%) and volcanic aerosols (~23%) are the primary contributors to the observed variations in GMTA. While, UV (~9%) and ENSO (~12%) act as secondary dri...

  3. Bright Farming: An Innovative Approach for Sustainable Socio Ecosystem in Climate Change Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yogranjan

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Mitigating the effects of global climate change brought about by increasing emissions of greenhouse gases has grown to the worldwide sensed challenges. Possible strategies for lessening the ill impacts of agriculture on climate change and in parallels, optimizing overall yield potential of agricultural crops would certainly consider the initiatives for development of varieties having utmost reflectivity with least/no impact on photosynthetic yield. Crops having traits for maximum reflectivity such as specific plant height, leaf inclination, chlorophyll content, waxy leaf hairs, glossiness and/or canopy structural and morphological traits would be comprised in an ideotype. Genetic manipulation of crop reflectivity and/or selection for specific morphology of canopy might be possible using plant breeding however transgenesis for leaf waxy ness or canopy structure could achieve greater temperature reductions and may offer a viable solution to problem.