WorldWideScience

Sample records for applying risk analysis

  1. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  2. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  3. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  4. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  5. Applied risk analysis to the future Brazilian electricity generation matrix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maues, Jair; Fernandez, Eloi; Correa, Antonio

    2010-09-15

    This study compares energy conversion systems for the generation of electrical power, with an emphasis on the Brazilian energy matrix. The financial model applied in this comparison is based on the Portfolio Theory, developed by Harry Markowitz. The risk-return ratio related to the electrical generation mix predicted in the National Energy Plan - 2030, published in 2006 by the Brazilian Energy Research Office, is evaluated. The increase of non-traditional renewable energy in this expected electrical generating mix, specifically, residues of sugar cane plantations and wind energy, reduce not only the risk but also the average cost of the kilowatt-hour generated.

  6. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  7. A risk analysis approach applied to field surveillance in utility meters in legal metrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues Filho, B. A.; Nonato, N. S.; Carvalho, A. D.

    2018-03-01

    Field surveillance represents the level of control in metrological supervision responsible for checking the conformity of measuring instruments in-service. Utility meters represent the majority of measuring instruments produced by notified bodies due to self-verification in Brazil. They play a major role in the economy once electricity, gas and water are the main inputs to industries in their production processes. Then, to optimize the resources allocated to control these devices, the present study applied a risk analysis in order to identify among the 11 manufacturers notified to self-verification, the instruments that demand field surveillance.

  8. Uncertainty Analysis of A Flood Risk Mapping Procedure Applied In Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, J.; Uhrich, S.; Bormann, H.; Diekkrüger, B.

    In the framework of IRMA-Sponge program the presented study was part of the joint research project FRHYMAP (flood risk and hydrological mapping). A simple con- ceptual flooding model (FLOODMAP) has been developed to simulate flooded areas besides rivers within cities. FLOODMAP requires a minimum of input data (digital el- evation model (DEM), river line, water level plain) and parameters and calculates the flood extent as well as the spatial distribution of flood depths. of course the simulated model results are affected by errors and uncertainties. Possible sources of uncertain- ties are the model structure, model parameters and input data. Thus after the model validation (comparison of simulated water to observed extent, taken from airborne pictures) the uncertainty of the essential input data set (digital elevation model) was analysed. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess the effect of uncertain- ties concerning the statistics of DEM quality and to derive flooding probabilities from the set of simulations. The questions concerning a minimum resolution of a DEM re- quired for flood simulation and concerning the best aggregation procedure of a given DEM was answered by comparing the results obtained using all available standard GIS aggregation procedures. Seven different aggregation procedures were applied to high resolution DEMs (1-2m) in three cities (Bonn, Cologne, Luxembourg). Basing on this analysis the effect of 'uncertain' DEM data was estimated and compared with other sources of uncertainties. Especially socio-economic information and monetary transfer functions required for a damage risk analysis show a high uncertainty. There- fore this study helps to analyse the weak points of the flood risk and damage risk assessment procedure.

  9. Preliminary risk analysis applied to the handling of health-care waste

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carvalho S.M.L.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Between 75% and 90% of the waste produced by health-care providers no risk or is "general" health-care waste, comparable to domestic waste. The remaining 10-25% of health-care waste is regarded as hazardous due to one or more of the following characteristics: it may contain infectious agents, sharps, toxic or hazardous chemicals or it may be radioactive. Infectious health-care waste, particularly sharps, has been responsible for most of the accidents reported in the literature. In this work the preliminary risks analysis (PRA technique was used to evaluate practices in the handling of infectious health-care waste. Currently the PRA technique is being used to identify and to evaluate the potential for hazard of the activities, products, and services from facilities and industries. The system studied was a health-care establishment which has handling practices for infectious waste. Thirty-six procedures related to segregation, containment, internal collection, and storage operation were analyzed. The severity of the consequences of the failure (risk that can occur from careless management of infectious health-care waste was classified into four categories: negligible, marginal, critical, and catastrophic. The results obtained in this study showed that events with critics consequences, about 80%, may occur during the implementation of the containment operation, suggesting the need to prioritize this operation. As a result of the methodology applied in this work, a flowchart the risk series was also obtained. In the flowchart the events that can occur as a consequence of a improper handling of infectious health-care waste, which can cause critical risks such as injuries from sharps and contamination (infection from pathogenic microorganisms, are shown.

  10. Supply risk analysis: applying system dynamics to the Colombian healthcare sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pablo Zamora Aguas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group.

  11. Risk analysis applied to the production of generators of Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, Daniel; Torres, Antonio; Henriquez, Jorge R.; Soria, Miguel A.; Ayra, Fernando E.

    2017-01-01

    Radionuclide Technetium-99m is the most used today, so that their production is vital to the branches of health and the economy of any country. Cuba currently producing generators for obtaining this radionuclide, and it is produce at the Center of Isotopes. Risk assessments of radiological hazard installations are a regulatory requirement in Cuba. Although there are several qualitative or quantitative methods to perform these studies, the existence of basis risk starting and analysis codes and simplicity of use has been privileged the risk matrix as a preferred semi-quantitative method. The investigation presents the application, for the first time, of this method on a complex installation with radiological hazard in Cuba. Using the SECURE - MR Ver. 2.0 code detailed risk analysis of the practice carried out, resulting in three accidental sequences with high-risk level and determining the importance of reducers and barriers related with human factors associated to sufficiency and personnel training. Among the derived applications are reported the novelties analysis capabilities and possibilities of risk monitoring. The risk model developed for the production process of generators of Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m joined with capabilities review, analysis and documentation provided by the tool, allow obtaining a completely and coherent document with the model, which constitutes a valuable basis for understanding the safety of the installation knowledge. (author)

  12. Risk analysis applied to the production of generators of Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez, Daniel; Torres, Antonio; Henriquez, Jorge R.; Soria, Miguel A.; Ayra, Fernando E., E-mail: danivd1188@gmail.com, E-mail: rjorge@ufpe.br, E-mail: masguevara@centis.edu.cu, E-mail: feayra@centis.cu [Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (DEMEC/UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Mecanica; Departamento de Ingenieria Nuclear, Instituto Superior de Tecnologias y Ciencias Aplicadas (DIN/InSTEC), La Habana (Cuba); Departamento de Proteccion Radiologica, Centro de Isotopos (DPR/CENTIS), La Habana (Cuba)

    2017-11-01

    Radionuclide Technetium-99m is the most used today, so that their production is vital to the branches of health and the economy of any country. Cuba currently producing generators for obtaining this radionuclide, and it is produce at the Center of Isotopes. Risk assessments of radiological hazard installations are a regulatory requirement in Cuba. Although there are several qualitative or quantitative methods to perform these studies, the existence of basis risk starting and analysis codes and simplicity of use has been privileged the risk matrix as a preferred semi-quantitative method. The investigation presents the application, for the first time, of this method on a complex installation with radiological hazard in Cuba. Using the SECURE - MR Ver. 2.0 code detailed risk analysis of the practice carried out, resulting in three accidental sequences with high-risk level and determining the importance of reducers and barriers related with human factors associated to sufficiency and personnel training. Among the derived applications are reported the novelties analysis capabilities and possibilities of risk monitoring. The risk model developed for the production process of generators of Molybdenum-99/Technetium-99m joined with capabilities review, analysis and documentation provided by the tool, allow obtaining a completely and coherent document with the model, which constitutes a valuable basis for understanding the safety of the installation knowledge. (author)

  13. Risk-based analysis methods applied to nuclear power plant technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1989-01-01

    A computer-aided methodology and practical applications of risk-based evaluation of technical specifications are described. The methodology, developed for use by the utility industry, is a part of the overall process of improving nuclear power plant technical specifications. The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a probabilistic risk assessment or a system-level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at the plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns and decreasing labor requirements for test and maintenance activities, with no adverse impacts on risk. The methodology and the SOCRATES computer program have been used extensively toe valuate several actual technical specifications in case studies demonstrating the methods. Summaries of these applications demonstrate the types of results achieved and the usefulness of the risk-based evaluation in improving the technical specifications

  14. Common cause evaluations in applied risk analysis of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taniguchi, T.; Ligon, D.; Stamatelatos, M.

    1983-04-01

    Qualitative and quantitative approaches were developed for the evaluation of common cause failures (CCFs) in nuclear power plants and were applied to the analysis of the auxiliary feedwater systems of several pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Key CCF variables were identified through a survey of experts in the field and a review of failure experience in operating PWRs. These variables were classified into categories of high, medium, and low defense against a CCF. Based on the results, a checklist was developed for analyzing CCFs of systems. Several known techniques for quantifying CCFs were also reviewed. The information provided valuable insights in the development of a new model for estimating CCF probabilities, which is an extension of and improvement over the Beta Factor method. As applied to the analysis of the PWR auxiliary feedwater systems, the method yielded much more realistic values than the original Beta Factor method for a one-out-of-three system

  15. Handbook of Applied Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Papageorgiou, Nikolaos S

    2009-01-01

    Offers an examination of important theoretical methods and procedures in applied analysis. This book details the important theoretical trends in nonlinear analysis and applications to different fields. It is suitable for those working on nonlinear analysis.

  16. Coping with Risk in Agriculture, 3rd edition : Applied Decision Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hardaker, J.B.; Lien, G.; Anderson, J.R.; Huirne, R.

    2015-01-01

    Risk and uncertainty are inescapable factors in agriculture which require careful management. Farmers face production risks from the weather, crop and livestock performance, and pests and diseases, as well as institutional, personal and business risks. This revised third edition of this popular

  17. Risk analysis applied to the development of petroleum fields; Analise de risco aplicada ao desenvolvimento de campos de petroleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Ana Paula A. [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Shiozer, Denis J. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    Decision analysis applied to the development phase of petroleum fields must take into account the risk associated to several types of uncertainties. In the transition of the appraisal to the development phase, the importance of risk associated to the recovery factor may increase significantly. The process is complex due to high investments, large number of uncertain variables, strong dependence of the results with the production strategy definition. This complexity may, in several cases, cause difficulties to establish reliable techniques to assess risk correctly or it demands great computational effort. Therefore, methodologies to quantify the impact of uncertainties are still not well established because simplifications are necessary and the impact of such simplifications is not well known. The propose work bring the main aspects related to the validation of the simplifications necessary to the quantification of the impact of uncertainties in the risk analysis process. The adopted techniques are divided in three groups: adoption of the automated process and use of parallel computing; simplifications techniques in the treatment of attributes; and integration techniques of geological uncertainties with the different types of uncertainties (economical, technological and related with the production strategy). The integration of the geological uncertainties with the others uncertainties is made through the concept of representative models. The results show that the criteria adopted are good indicators of the viability of the methodology, improving the performance and reliability of the risk analysis process. (author)

  18. CONSIDERATIONS ON APPLYING THE ANALYSIS MATRIX METHODS OF THE RISKS WITHIN THE AUDIT OF THE PROCUREMENT-PAYMENT CYCLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana SLOBODEANU

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the article hereby we analyse the matrix method of analysis of the risks for fraud and error at the level of the procurement-payments cycle. The risk of presentation of certain fraudulent information regarding the accounts of the procurement-payments cycle becomes more and more accentuated in the enhancement of the administration’s wish to present financial indicators of performance. In these conditions, the auditor is to necessarily quantify the involvement of this phenomenon for the report of audit. As a consequence, the auditor is to evaluate the risk for fraud and apply additional audit procedures for identifying all the possible indicators for „remaking” the financial situations on the side of the accounts of suppliers, activity, as a last consequence of which may be a qualified opinion on audit.

  19. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  20. Applied longitudinal analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Fitzmaurice, Garrett M; Ware, James H

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition "". . . [this book] should be on the shelf of everyone interested in . . . longitudinal data analysis.""-Journal of the American Statistical Association   Features newly developed topics and applications of the analysis of longitudinal data Applied Longitudinal Analysis, Second Edition presents modern methods for analyzing data from longitudinal studies and now features the latest state-of-the-art techniques. The book emphasizes practical, rather than theoretical, aspects of methods for the analysis of diverse types of lo

  1. Sensitivity analysis of the meteorological model applied in the German risk study (DRS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogt, S.

    1982-01-01

    In the first part of this paper it will be shown how the influence of uncertainties in estimation on risk statements is determined using methods of the probability theory. In particular the parameters contained in the dispersion model are studied more thoroughly. In the second part, based on the knowledge gathered in the previous investigations, new and more realistic best estimate values will be proposed for four selected parameters to be used in future work. The modifications in the risk statements by these new parameter values will be commented upon

  2. Applying data envelopment analysis to preventive medicine: a novel method for constructing a personalized risk model of obesity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroto Narimatsu

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method of operations research that has not yet been applied in the field of obesity research. However, DEA might be used to evaluate individuals' susceptibility to obesity, which could help establish effective risk models for the onset of obesity. Therefore, we conducted this study to evaluate the feasibility of applying DEA to predict obesity, by calculating efficiency scores and evaluating the usefulness of risk models. In this study, we evaluated data from the Takahata study, which was a population-based cohort study (with a follow-up study of Japanese people who are >40 years old. For our analysis, we used the input-oriented Charnes-Cooper-Rhodes model of DEA, and defined the decision-making units (DMUs as individual subjects. The inputs were defined as (1 exercise (measured as calories expended and (2 the inverse of food intake (measured as calories ingested. The output was defined as the inverse of body mass index (BMI. Using the β coefficients for the participants' single nucleotide polymorphisms, we then calculated their genetic predisposition score (GPS. Both efficiency scores and GPS were available for 1,620 participants from the baseline survey, and for 708 participants from the follow-up survey. To compare the strengths of the associations, we used models of multiple linear regressions. To evaluate the effects of genetic factors and efficiency score on body mass index (BMI, we used multiple linear regression analysis, with BMI as the dependent variable, GPS and efficiency scores as the explanatory variables, and several demographic controls, including age and sex. Our results indicated that all factors were statistically significant (p < 0.05, with an adjusted R2 value of 0.66. Therefore, it is possible to use DEA to predict environmentally driven obesity, and thus to establish a well-fitted model for risk of obesity.

  3. Applied Behavior Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szapacs, Cindy

    2006-01-01

    Teaching strategies that work for typically developing children often do not work for those diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder. However, teaching strategies that work for children with autism do work for typically developing children. In this article, the author explains how the principles and concepts of Applied Behavior Analysis can be…

  4. Analysis of risk reduction measures applied to shared essential service water systems at multi-unit sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohut, P.; Musicki, Z.; Fitzpatrick, R.

    1991-06-01

    This report summarizes a study performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of the resolution of NRC Generic Issue 130. GI-130 is concerned with the potential core damage vulnerability resulting from failure of the emergency service water (ESW) system in selected multiplant units. These multiplant units are all twin pressurized water reactor designs that have only two ESW pumps per unit (one per train) backed up by a unit crosstie capability. This generic issue applies to seven US sites (14 plants). The study established and analyzed the core damage vulnerability and identified potential improvements for the ESW system. It obtained generic estimates of the risk reduction potential and cost effectiveness of each potential improvement. The analysis also investigated the cost/benefit aspects of selected combinations of potential improvements. 4 figs., 62 tabs

  5. Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

    2014-09-01

    Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  6. Applied multivariate statistical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Härdle, Wolfgang Karl

    2015-01-01

    Focusing on high-dimensional applications, this 4th edition presents the tools and concepts used in multivariate data analysis in a style that is also accessible for non-mathematicians and practitioners.  It surveys the basic principles and emphasizes both exploratory and inferential statistics; a new chapter on Variable Selection (Lasso, SCAD and Elastic Net) has also been added.  All chapters include practical exercises that highlight applications in different multivariate data analysis fields: in quantitative financial studies, where the joint dynamics of assets are observed; in medicine, where recorded observations of subjects in different locations form the basis for reliable diagnoses and medication; and in quantitative marketing, where consumers’ preferences are collected in order to construct models of consumer behavior.  All of these examples involve high to ultra-high dimensions and represent a number of major fields in big data analysis. The fourth edition of this book on Applied Multivariate ...

  7. Characterising bias in regulatory risk and decision analysis: An analysis of heuristics applied in health technology appraisal, chemicals regulation, and climate change governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2017-08-01

    In many environmental and public health domains, heuristic methods of risk and decision analysis must be relied upon, either because problem structures are ambiguous, reliable data is lacking, or decisions are urgent. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty beyond model and measurement error - uncertainty stemming from relying on inexact inference rules. Here we identify and analyse heuristics used to prioritise risk objects, to discriminate between signal and noise, to weight evidence, to construct models, to extrapolate beyond datasets, and to make policy. Some of these heuristics are based on causal generalisations, yet can misfire when these relationships are presumed rather than tested (e.g. surrogates in clinical trials). Others are conventions designed to confer stability to decision analysis, yet which may introduce serious error when applied ritualistically (e.g. significance testing). Some heuristics can be traced back to formal justifications, but only subject to strong assumptions that are often violated in practical applications. Heuristic decision rules (e.g. feasibility rules) in principle act as surrogates for utility maximisation or distributional concerns, yet in practice may neglect costs and benefits, be based on arbitrary thresholds, and be prone to gaming. We highlight the problem of rule-entrenchment, where analytical choices that are in principle contestable are arbitrarily fixed in practice, masking uncertainty and potentially introducing bias. Strategies for making risk and decision analysis more rigorous include: formalising the assumptions and scope conditions under which heuristics should be applied; testing rather than presuming their underlying empirical or theoretical justifications; using sensitivity analysis, simulations, multiple bias analysis, and deductive systems of inference (e.g. directed acyclic graphs) to characterise rule uncertainty and refine heuristics; adopting "recovery schemes" to correct for known biases

  8. Analysis of risk of nonconformities and applied quality inspection methods in the process of aluminium profiles coating based on FMEA results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Knop

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of risk analysis associated with nonconformities of aluminium profiles in the process of coating and quality inspection methods used to their detection. Analysis of risk was done based on results of FMEA method. Evaluated quality inspection methods were distinguished based on the term of inspection in the ISO 9000:2005 norm. Manufacturing process of aluminium profile in micro-technological approach was presented. Triple quantification of nonconformities risk based on the FMEA method by using three different approaches was conducted. Analysis of nonconformities risks associated with the use of specific quality inspection methods was done. In the last part the analysis of causes of critical nonconformities, proposals for improvement actions reducing the risk of the critical nonconformities and applied critical quality inspection method were showed.

  9. Analysis of agreement between cardiac risk stratification protocols applied to participants of a center for cardiac rehabilitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana A. S. Santos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Background Cardiac risk stratification is related to the risk of the occurrence of events induced by exercise. Despite the existence of several protocols to calculate risk stratification, studies indicating that there is similarity between these protocols are still unknown. Objective To evaluate the agreement between the existing protocols on cardiac risk rating in cardiac patients. Method The records of 50 patients from a cardiac rehabilitation program were analyzed, from which the following information was extracted: age, sex, weight, height, clinical diagnosis, medical history, risk factors, associated diseases, and the results from the most recent laboratory and complementary tests performed. This information was used for risk stratification of the patients in the protocols of the American College of Sports Medicine, the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, the protocol designed by Frederic J. Pashkow, the American Association of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehabilitation, the Société Française de Cardiologie, and the Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample and the analysis of agreement between the protocols was calculated using the Kappa coefficient. Differences were considered with a significance level of 5%. Results Of the 21 analyses of agreement, 12 were considered significant between the protocols used for risk classification, with nine classified as moderate and three as low. No agreements were classified as excellent. Different proportions were observed in each risk category, with significant differences between the protocols for all risk categories. Conclusion The agreements between the protocols were considered low and moderate and the risk proportions differed between protocols.

  10. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  11. Applied software risk management a guide for software project managers

    CERN Document Server

    Pandian, C Ravindranath

    2006-01-01

    Few software projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original specifications. Focusing on what practitioners need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering software projects, Applied Software Risk Management: A Guide for Software Project Managers covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for software risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. Written in a clear and concise manner, this resource presents concepts and practical insight into managing risk. It first covers risk-driven project management, risk management processes, risk attributes, risk identification, and risk analysis. The book continues by examining responses to risk, the tracking and modeling of risks, intelligence gathering, and integrated risk management. It concludes with details on drafting and implementing procedures. A diary of a risk manager provides insight in implementing risk management processes.Bringing together concepts ...

  12. Applied functional analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oden, J Tinsley

    2010-01-01

    The textbook is designed to drive a crash course for beginning graduate students majoring in something besides mathematics, introducing mathematical foundations that lead to classical results in functional analysis. More specifically, Oden and Demkowicz want to prepare students to learn the variational theory of partial differential equations, distributions, and Sobolev spaces and numerical analysis with an emphasis on finite element methods. The 1996 first edition has been used in a rather intensive two-semester course. -Book News, June 2010

  13. Applied functional analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Griffel, DH

    2002-01-01

    A stimulating introductory text, this volume examines many important applications of functional analysis to mechanics, fluid mechanics, diffusive growth, and approximation. Detailed enough to impart a thorough understanding, the text is also sufficiently straightforward for those unfamiliar with abstract analysis. Its four-part treatment begins with distribution theory and discussions of Green's functions. Essentially independent of the preceding material, the second and third parts deal with Banach spaces, Hilbert space, spectral theory, and variational techniques. The final part outlines the

  14. Municipal solid waste management health risk assessment from air emissions for China by applying life cycle analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hua; Nitivattananon, Vilas; Li, Peng

    2015-05-01

    This study is to quantify and objectively evaluate the extent of environmental health risks from three waste treatment options suggested by the national municipal solid waste management enhancing strategy (No [2011] 9 of the State Council, promulgated on 19 April 2011), which includes sanitary landfill, waste-to-energy incineration and compost, together with the material recovery facility through a case study in Zhangqiu City of China. It addresses potential chronic health risks from air emissions to residential receptors in the impacted area. It combines field survey, analogue survey, design documents and life cycle inventory methods in defining the source strength of chemicals of potential concern. The modelling of life cycle inventory and air dispersion is via integrated waste management(IWM)-2 and Screening Air Dispersion Model (Version 3.0) (SCREEN3). The health risk assessment is in accordance with United States Environmental Protection Agency guidance Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS), Volume I: Human Health Evaluation Manual (Part F, Supplemental Guidance for Inhalation Risk Assessment). The exposure concentration is based on long-term exposure to the maximum ground level contaminant in air under the 'reasonable worst situation' emissions and then directly compared with reference for concentration and unit risk factor/cancer slope factor derived from the national air quality standard (for a conventional pollutant) and toxicological studies (for a specific pollutant). Results from this study suggest that the option of compost with material recovery facility treatment may pose less negative health impacts than other options; the sensitivity analysis shows that the landfill integrated waste management collection rate has a great influence on the impact results. Further investigation is needed to validate or challenge the findings of this study. © The Author(s) 2015.

  15. APPLIED ISSUES ABOUT BANKING RISK MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Geanina Clipici

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The following paper emphasizes the need to deepen the understanding of the notion of banking risk management by explaining the significant risks the bank encounters during financial exercises as well as their additional entries. The study of the paper will focus on UniCredit Bank during the years 2014 and  2015 on all types of risks, in which we will provide comprehensive data on how the UniCredit Bank management applies its risk policies.

  16. Applying the change vector analysis technique to assess the desertification risk in the south-west of Romania in the period 1984-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorovencii, Iosif

    2017-09-26

    The desertification risk affects around 40% of the agricultural land in various regions of Romania. The purpose of this study is to analyse the risk of desertification in the south-west of Romania in the period 1984-2011 using the change vector analysis (CVA) technique and Landsat thematic mapper (TM) satellite images. CVA was applied to combinations of normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI)-albedo, NDVI-bare soil index (BI) and tasselled cap greenness (TCG)-tasselled cap brightness (TCB). The combination NDVI-albedo proved to be the best in assessing the desertification risk, with an overall accuracy of 87.67%, identifying a desertification risk on 25.16% of the studied period. The classification of the maps was performed for the following classes: desertification risk, re-growing and persistence. Four degrees of desertification risk and re-growing were used: low, medium, high and extreme. Using the combination NDVI-albedo, 0.53% of the analysed surface was assessed as having an extreme degree of desertification risk, 3.93% a high degree, 8.72% a medium degree and 11.98% a low degree. The driving forces behind the risk of desertification are both anthropogenic and climatic causes. The anthropogenic causes include the destruction of the irrigation system, deforestation, the destruction of the forest shelterbelts, the fragmentation of agricultural land and its inefficient management. Climatic causes refer to increase of temperatures, frequent and prolonged droughts and decline of the amount of precipitation.

  17. Risk analysis applied to development of a gas field in Santos Basin; Analise de risco aplicada ao desenvolvimento de um campo de gas na Bacia de Santos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xavier, Alexandre M.; Filoco, Paulo R.; Yamada, Debora T. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Decision analysis applied to the development phase of petroleum fields must take into account the risk associated to many kinds of uncertainties. In the transition of the appraisal to the development phases, the importance of risk associated to the production and the recovery factor may increase significantly. The process is complex due to high investments, large number of uncertain variables and strong dependence of the results with the production strategy definition. In E and P, several decisions must be taken considering the risks involved through the appraisal of the uncertainties impact in production of petroleum fields, increase the possibility of success, measuring possible lost and sub-optimized developments identifying new opportunities. In a specific scenario, like gas production, the risk associated to the project becomes larger due to the gas prices compared to oil, the demand, the distribution's structure and the deadlines defined in contracts. The objective of this paper is to show the results of a methodology developed in a detailed study of a risk analysis process in appraisal and development phases (execution and implementation) to one of the biggest gas fields in Brazil (Mexilhao Field) and support reliable future decisions. (author)

  18. Conversation Analysis in Applied Linguistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasper, Gabriele; Wagner, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    on applied CA, the application of basic CA's principles, methods, and findings to the study of social domains and practices that are interactionally constituted. We consider three strands—foundational, social problem oriented, and institutional applied CA—before turning to recent developments in CA research...... on learning and development. In conclusion, we address some emerging themes in the relationship of CA and applied linguistics, including the role of multilingualism, standard social science methods as research objects, CA's potential for direct social intervention, and increasing efforts to complement CA......For the last decade, conversation analysis (CA) has increasingly contributed to several established fields in applied linguistics. In this article, we will discuss its methodological contributions. The article distinguishes between basic and applied CA. Basic CA is a sociological endeavor concerned...

  19. Applied analysis and differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Cârj, Ovidiu

    2007-01-01

    This volume contains refereed research articles written by experts in the field of applied analysis, differential equations and related topics. Well-known leading mathematicians worldwide and prominent young scientists cover a diverse range of topics, including the most exciting recent developments. A broad range of topics of recent interest are treated: existence, uniqueness, viability, asymptotic stability, viscosity solutions, controllability and numerical analysis for ODE, PDE and stochastic equations. The scope of the book is wide, ranging from pure mathematics to various applied fields such as classical mechanics, biomedicine, and population dynamics.

  20. Applied survival analysis using R

    CERN Document Server

    Moore, Dirk F

    2016-01-01

    Applied Survival Analysis Using R covers the main principles of survival analysis, gives examples of how it is applied, and teaches how to put those principles to use to analyze data using R as a vehicle. Survival data, where the primary outcome is time to a specific event, arise in many areas of biomedical research, including clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and studies of animals. Many survival methods are extensions of techniques used in linear regression and categorical data, while other aspects of this field are unique to survival data. This text employs numerous actual examples to illustrate survival curve estimation, comparison of survivals of different groups, proper accounting for censoring and truncation, model variable selection, and residual analysis. Because explaining survival analysis requires more advanced mathematics than many other statistical topics, this book is organized with basic concepts and most frequently used procedures covered in earlier chapters, with more advanced topics...

  1. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC...

  2. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  3. Applying of Decision Tree Analysis to Risk Factors Associated with Pressure Ulcers in Long-Term Care Facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Mikyung; Lee, Soo-Kyoung

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to use decision tree analysis to explore the factors associated with pressure ulcers (PUs) among elderly people admitted to Korean long-term care facilities. The data were extracted from the 2014 National Inpatient Sample (NIS)-data of Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA). A MapReduce-based program was implemented to join and filter 5 tables of the NIS. The outcome predicted by the decision tree model was the prevalence of PUs as defined by the Korean Standard Classification of Disease-7 (KCD-7; code L89 * ). Using R 3.3.1, a decision tree was generated with the finalized 15,856 cases and 830 variables. The decision tree displayed 15 subgroups with 8 variables showing 0.804 accuracy, 0.820 sensitivity, and 0.787 specificity. The most significant primary predictor of PUs was length of stay less than 0.5 day. Other predictors were the presence of an infectious wound dressing, followed by having diagnoses numbering less than 3.5 and the presence of a simple dressing. Among diagnoses, "injuries to the hip and thigh" was the top predictor ranking 5th overall. Total hospital cost exceeding 2,200,000 Korean won (US $2,000) rounded out the top 7. These results support previous studies that showed length of stay, comorbidity, and total hospital cost were associated with PUs. Moreover, wound dressings were commonly used to treat PUs. They also show that machine learning, such as a decision tree, could effectively predict PUs using big data.

  4. Modern problems in applied analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rogosin, Sergei

    2018-01-01

    This book features a collection of recent findings in Applied Real and Complex Analysis that were presented at the 3rd International Conference “Boundary Value Problems, Functional Equations and Applications” (BAF-3), held in Rzeszow, Poland on 20-23 April 2016. The contributions presented here develop a technique related to the scope of the workshop and touching on the fields of differential and functional equations, complex and real analysis, with a special emphasis on topics related to boundary value problems. Further, the papers discuss various applications of the technique, mainly in solid mechanics (crack propagation, conductivity of composite materials), biomechanics (viscoelastic behavior of the periodontal ligament, modeling of swarms) and fluid dynamics (Stokes and Brinkman type flows, Hele-Shaw type flows). The book is addressed to all readers who are interested in the development and application of innovative research results that can help solve theoretical and real-world problems.

  5. Analysis of risk of nonconformities and applied quality inspection methods in the process of aluminium profiles coating based on FMEA results

    OpenAIRE

    Krzysztof Knop

    2017-01-01

    The article presents the results of risk analysis associated with nonconformities of aluminium profiles in the process of coating and quality inspection methods used to their detection. Analysis of risk was done based on results of FMEA method. Evaluated quality inspection methods were distinguished based on the term of inspection in the ISO 9000:2005 norm. Manufacturing process of aluminium profile in micro-technological approach was presented. Triple quantification of nonconformities risk b...

  6. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  7. From experience : applying the risk diagnosing methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, J.A.; Halman, J.I.M.; Song, X.M.

    2002-01-01

    No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

  8. From experience: applying the risk diagnosing methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, Jimme A.; Halman, Johannes I.M.; Song, Michael

    2002-01-01

    No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

  9. Risk matrix model applied to the outsourcing of logistics' activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fouad Jawab

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper proposes the application of the risk matrix model in the field of logistics outsourcing. Such an application can serve as the basis for decision making regarding the conduct of a risk management in the logistics outsourcing process and allow its prevention. Design/methodology/approach: This study is based on the risk management of logistics outsourcing in the field of the retail sector in Morocco. The authors identify all possible risks and then classify and prioritize them using the Risk Matrix Model. Finally, we have come to four possible decisions for the identified risks. The analysis was made possible through interviews and discussions with the heads of departments and agents who are directly involved in each outsourced activity. Findings and Originality/value: It is possible to improve the risk matrix model by proposing more personalized prevention measures according to each company that operates in the mass-market retailing. Originality/value: This study is the only one made in the process of logistics outsourcing in the retail sector in Morocco through Label’vie as a case study. First, we had identified as thorough as we could all possible risks, then we applied the Risk Matrix Model to sort them out in an ascending order of importance and criticality. As a result, we could hand out to the decision-makers the mapping for an effective control of risks and a better guiding of the process of risk management.

  10. Conversation Analysis and Applied Linguistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schegloff, Emanuel A.; Koshik, Irene; Jacoby, Sally; Olsher, David

    2002-01-01

    Offers biographical guidance on several major areas of conversation-analytic work--turn-taking, repair, and word selection--and indicates past or potential points of contact with applied linguistics. Also discusses areas of applied linguistic work. (Author/VWL)

  11. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menke, M.M.; Paulsson, B.N.P.

    1994-01-01

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

  12. Arctic Risk Management (ARMNet) Network: Linking Risk Management Practitioners and Researchers Across the Arctic Regions of Canada and Alaska To Improve Risk, Emergency and Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation Through Comparative Analysis and Applied Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic Risk Management Network (ARMNet) was conceived as a trans-disciplinary hub to encourage and facilitate greater cooperation, communication and exchange among American and Canadian academics and practitioners actively engaged in the research, management and mitigation of risks, emergencies and disasters in the Arctic regions. Its aim is to assist regional decision-makers through the sharing of applied research and best practices and to support greater inter-operability and bilateral collaboration through improved networking, joint exercises, workshops, teleconferences, radio programs, and virtual communications (eg. webinars). Most importantly, ARMNet is a clearinghouse for all information related to the management of the frequent hazards of Arctic climate and geography in North America, including new and emerging challenges arising from climate change, increased maritime polar traffic and expanding economic development in the region. ARMNet is an outcome of the Arctic Observing Network (AON) for Long Term Observations, Governance, and Management Discussions, www.arcus.org/search-program. The AON goals continue with CRIOS (www.ariesnonprofit.com/ARIESprojects.php) and coastal erosion research (www.ariesnonprofit.com/webinarCoastalErosion.php) led by the North Slope Borough Risk Management Office with assistance from ARIES (Applied Research in Environmental Sciences Nonprofit, Inc.). The constituency for ARMNet will include all northern academics and researchers, Arctic-based corporations, First Responders (FRs), Emergency Management Offices (EMOs) and Risk Management Offices (RMOs), military, Coast Guard, northern police forces, Search and Rescue (SAR) associations, boroughs, territories and communities throughout the Arctic. This presentation will be of interest to all those engaged in Arctic affairs, describe the genesis of ARMNet and present the results of stakeholder meetings and webinars designed to guide the next stages of the Project.

  13. Applying critical analysis - main methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Araujo Alonso

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available What is the usefulness of critical appraisal of literature? Critical analysis is a fundamental condition for the correct interpretation of any study that is subject to review. In epidemiology, in order to learn how to read a publication, we must be able to analyze it critically. Critical analysis allows us to check whether a study fulfills certain previously established methodological inclusion and exclusion criteria. This is frequently used in conducting systematic reviews although eligibility criteria are generally limited to the study design. Critical analysis of literature and be done implicitly while reading an article, as in reading for personal interest, or can be conducted in a structured manner, using explicit and previously established criteria. The latter is done when formally reviewing a topic.

  14. Essentials of applied dynamic analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Jia, Junbo

    2014-01-01

    This book presents up-to-date knowledge of dynamic analysis in engineering world. To facilitate the understanding of the topics by readers with various backgrounds, general principles are linked to their applications from different angles. Special interesting topics such as statistics of motions and loading, damping modeling and measurement, nonlinear dynamics, fatigue assessment, vibration and buckling under axial loading, structural health monitoring, human body vibrations, and vehicle-structure interactions etc., are also presented. The target readers include industry professionals in civil, marine and mechanical engineering, as well as researchers and students in this area.

  15. Applied systems analysis. No. 22

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-12-01

    Based on a detailed analysis of demands in the area Cologne/Frankfurt, the amount of the system products for this region were ascertained, which under consideration of technical conditions and entrepreneurial aspects seemed to be disposable at cost equality with competative energy supplies. Based on these data, the technical components of the system, location and piping were fixed and first- and operating costs were determined. For a judgement of the economics, the key numbers, cash value, internal rate of interest and cost recovery rate were determined from the difference of costs between the nuclear long distance energy system and alternative facilities. Furthermore specific production cost, associated prices and contribution margin were presented for each product. (orig.) [de

  16. An integrated framework for risk analysis and management applied to E and P; Modelo integrado de analise e gestao de riscos em E and P

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Repsold Junior, Hugo; Giamattey, Ricardo H.D.; Miranda, Thales R. [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The current challenges associated with the Oil an Gas industry demand a great capacity in planning, executing and managing activities from the major players. Accordingly, this paper proposes an integrated framework for risk analysis and management in the E and P sector whose main objective is to ensure that the expected benefits from an efficient resource allocation will be achieved. Firstly, the methodology presents a framework designed to help implementing a risk management process. Besides that, it also addresses the organizational structure needed to enforce the process. Finally, it highlights the sub processes which should be inherently linked to the company's business process. To conclude, the paper discusses how to take advantage from this process to create corporate knowledge. (author)

  17. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  18. SU-E-T-128: Applying Failure Modes and Effects Analysis to a Risk-Based Quality Management for Stereotactic Radiosurgery in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teixeira, F [comissao nacional de energia nuclear, Rio De Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio De Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Almeida, C de [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio De Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Huq, M [University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: The goal of the present work was to evaluate the process maps for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) treatment at three radiotherapy centers in Brazil and apply the FMEA technique to evaluate similarities and differences, if any, of the hazards and risks associated with these processes. Methods: A team, consisting of professionals from different disciplines and involved in the SRS treatment, was formed at each center. Each team was responsible for the development of the process map, and performance of FMEA and FTA. A facilitator knowledgeable in these techniques led the work at each center. The TG100 recommended scales were used for the evaluation of hazard and severity for each step for the major process “treatment planning”. Results: Hazard index given by the Risk Priority Number (RPN) is found to range from 4–270 for various processes and the severity (S) index is found to range from 1–10. The RPN values > 100 and severity value ≥ 7 were chosen to flag safety improvement interventions. Number of steps with RPN ≥100 were found to be 6, 59 and 45 for the three centers. The corresponding values for S ≥ 7 are 24, 21 and 25 respectively. The range of RPN and S values for each center belong to different process steps and failure modes. Conclusion: These results show that interventions to improve safety is different for each center and it is associated with the skill level of the professional team as well as the technology used to provide radiosurgery treatment. The present study will very likely be a model for implementation of risk-based prospective quality management program for SRS treatment in Brazil where currently there are 28 radiotherapy centers performing SRS. A complete FMEA for SRS for these three radiotherapy centers is currently under development.

  19. SU-E-T-128: Applying Failure Modes and Effects Analysis to a Risk-Based Quality Management for Stereotactic Radiosurgery in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teixeira, F; Almeida, C de; Huq, M

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The goal of the present work was to evaluate the process maps for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) treatment at three radiotherapy centers in Brazil and apply the FMEA technique to evaluate similarities and differences, if any, of the hazards and risks associated with these processes. Methods: A team, consisting of professionals from different disciplines and involved in the SRS treatment, was formed at each center. Each team was responsible for the development of the process map, and performance of FMEA and FTA. A facilitator knowledgeable in these techniques led the work at each center. The TG100 recommended scales were used for the evaluation of hazard and severity for each step for the major process “treatment planning”. Results: Hazard index given by the Risk Priority Number (RPN) is found to range from 4–270 for various processes and the severity (S) index is found to range from 1–10. The RPN values > 100 and severity value ≥ 7 were chosen to flag safety improvement interventions. Number of steps with RPN ≥100 were found to be 6, 59 and 45 for the three centers. The corresponding values for S ≥ 7 are 24, 21 and 25 respectively. The range of RPN and S values for each center belong to different process steps and failure modes. Conclusion: These results show that interventions to improve safety is different for each center and it is associated with the skill level of the professional team as well as the technology used to provide radiosurgery treatment. The present study will very likely be a model for implementation of risk-based prospective quality management program for SRS treatment in Brazil where currently there are 28 radiotherapy centers performing SRS. A complete FMEA for SRS for these three radiotherapy centers is currently under development

  20. Multi-hazard risk assessment applied to hydraulic fracturing operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Gasparini, Paolo; Russo, Raffaella; Capuano, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Without exception, the exploitation of any energy resource produces impacts and intrinsically bears risks. Therefore, to make sound decisions about future energy resource exploitation, it is important to clearly understand the potential environmental impacts in the full life-cycle of an energy development project, distinguishing between the specific impacts intrinsically related to exploiting a given energy resource and those shared with the exploitation of other energy resources. Technological advances as directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have led to a rapid expansion of unconventional resources (UR) exploration and exploitation; as a consequence, both public health and environmental concerns have risen. The main objective of a multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR is to assess the rate (or the likelihood) of occurrence of incidents and the relative potential impacts on surrounding environment, considering different hazards and their interactions. Such analyses have to be performed considering the different stages of development of a project; however, the discussion in this paper is mainly focused on the analysis applied to the hydraulic fracturing stage of a UR development project. The multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR poses a number of challenges, making of this one a particularly complex problem. First, a number of external hazards might be considered as potential triggering mechanisms. Such hazards can be either of natural origin or anthropogenic events caused by the same industrial activities. Second, failures might propagate through the industrial elements, leading to complex scenarios according to the layout of the industrial site. Third, there is a number of potential risk receptors, ranging from environmental elements (as the air, soil, surface water, or groundwater) to local communities and ecosystems. The multi-hazard risk approach for this problem is set by considering multiple hazards

  1. Applied Behavior Analysis and Statistical Process Control?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, B. L.

    1995-01-01

    Incorporating statistical process control (SPC) methods into applied behavior analysis is discussed. It is claimed that SPC methods would likely reduce applied behavior analysts' intimate contacts with problems and would likely yield poor treatment and research decisions. Cases and data presented by Pfadt and Wheeler (1995) are cited as examples.…

  2. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  3. Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

  4. Concept analysis of culture applied to nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzilli, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    Culture is an important concept, especially when applied to nursing. A concept analysis of culture is essential to understanding the meaning of the word. This article applies Rodgers' (2000) concept analysis template and provides a definition of the word culture as it applies to nursing practice. This article supplies examples of the concept of culture to aid the reader in understanding its application to nursing and includes a case study demonstrating components of culture that must be respected and included when providing health care.

  5. Applying risk management strategies to strengthen an IDS's investment policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fine, R P

    1998-11-01

    The increased financial risk that not-for-profit integrated delivery systems have assumed to function under managed care has required them to become increasingly reliant on income and gains from their investment portfolios. This reliance underscores the need for these organizations to take steps to effectively manage their investment risk. Not-for-profit IDSs should establish a systematic approach to investment risk management that is based on maintaining a sound fiduciary infrastructure and having a clear understanding of risk exposures, the most important of which are policy and market risk. Applying reasonable and common-sense risk management strategies to investment policy will enhance an IDS's overall financial and competitive strength.

  6. Caldwell University's Department of Applied Behavior Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, Kenneth F; Reeve, Sharon A

    2016-05-01

    Since 2004, faculty members at Caldwell University have developed three successful graduate programs in Applied Behavior Analysis (i.e., PhD, MA, non-degree programs), increased program faculty from two to six members, developed and operated an on-campus autism center, and begun a stand-alone Applied Behavior Analysis Department. This paper outlines a number of strategies used to advance these initiatives, including those associated with an extensive public relations campaign. We also outline challenges that have limited our programs' growth. These strategies, along with a consideration of potential challenges, might prove useful in guiding academicians who are interested in starting their own programs in behavior analysis.

  7. Applied regression analysis a research tool

    CERN Document Server

    Pantula, Sastry; Dickey, David

    1998-01-01

    Least squares estimation, when used appropriately, is a powerful research tool. A deeper understanding of the regression concepts is essential for achieving optimal benefits from a least squares analysis. This book builds on the fundamentals of statistical methods and provides appropriate concepts that will allow a scientist to use least squares as an effective research tool. Applied Regression Analysis is aimed at the scientist who wishes to gain a working knowledge of regression analysis. The basic purpose of this book is to develop an understanding of least squares and related statistical methods without becoming excessively mathematical. It is the outgrowth of more than 30 years of consulting experience with scientists and many years of teaching an applied regression course to graduate students. Applied Regression Analysis serves as an excellent text for a service course on regression for non-statisticians and as a reference for researchers. It also provides a bridge between a two-semester introduction to...

  8. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  9. Building an applied activation analysis centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartosek, J.; Kasparec, I.; Masek, J.

    1972-01-01

    Requirements are defined and all available background material is reported and discussed for the building up of a centre of applied activation analysis in Czechoslovakia. A detailed analysis of potential users and the centre's envisaged availability is also presented as part of the submitted study. A brief economic analysis is annexed. The study covers the situation up to the end of 1972. (J.K.)

  10. How to ensure that the results of climate risk analysis make a difference? - Experience from applied research addressing the challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Zebisch, Marc; Becker, Daniel; Pedoth, Lydia; Renner, Kathrin; Kienberger, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Changing climate conditions may have beneficial or adverse effects on the social-ecological systems we are living in. In any case, the possible effects result from complex and interlinked physical and social processes embedded in these systems. Traditional research addresses these bio-physical and societal issues in a separate way. Therefore, in general, studies on risks related to climate change are still mono-disciplinary in nature with an increasing amount of work following a multi-disciplinary approach. The quality and usefulness of the results of such research for policy or decision making in practice may further be limited by study designs that do not acknowledge appropriately the significance of integrating or at least mixing qualitative and quantitative information and knowledge. Finally, the acceptance of study results - particularly when containing some kind of assessments - is often endangered by insufficient and / or late involvement of stakeholders and users. The above mentioned limitations have often been brought up in the recent past. However, despite that a certain consensus could be achieved in the last years recognising the need to tackle these issues, little progress has been made in terms of implementation within the context of (research) studies. This paper elaborates in detail on reasons that hamper the application of - interdisciplinary (i.e. natural and social science), - trans-disciplinary (i.e. co-production of knowledge) and - integrative (i.e. combining qualitative and quantitative approaches) work. It is based on the experience gained through a number of applied climate change vulnerability studies carried out within the context of various GIZ-financed development cooperation projects, a consultancy project for the German Environment Agency as well as the workshop series INQUIMUS, which tackles particularly the issues of mixing qualitative and quantitative research approaches. Potentials and constraints of possible attempts for

  11. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. The Andrews’ Principles of Risk, Need, and Responsivity as Applied in Drug Abuse Treatment Programs: Meta-Analysis of Crime and Drug Use Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prendergast, Michael L.; Pearson, Frank S.; Podus, Deborah; Hamilton, Zachary K.; Greenwell, Lisa

    2013-01-01

    Objectives The purpose of the present meta-analysis was to answer the question: Can the Andrews principles of risk, needs, and responsivity, originally developed for programs that treat offenders, be extended to programs that treat drug abusers? Methods Drawing from a dataset that included 243 independent comparisons, we conducted random-effects meta-regression and ANOVA-analog meta-analyses to test the Andrews principles by averaging crime and drug use outcomes over a diverse set of programs for drug abuse problems. Results For crime outcomes, in the meta-regressions the point estimates for each of the principles were substantial, consistent with previous studies of the Andrews principles. There was also a substantial point estimate for programs exhibiting a greater number of the principles. However, almost all of the 95% confidence intervals included the zero point. For drug use outcomes, in the meta-regressions the point estimates for each of the principles was approximately zero; however, the point estimate for programs exhibiting a greater number of the principles was somewhat positive. All of the estimates for the drug use principles had confidence intervals that included the zero point. Conclusions This study supports previous findings from primary research studies targeting the Andrews principles that those principles are effective in reducing crime outcomes, here in meta-analytic research focused on drug treatment programs. By contrast, programs that follow the principles appear to have very little effect on drug use outcomes. Primary research studies that experimentally test the Andrews principles in drug treatment programs are recommended. PMID:24058325

  13. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  14. Lessons learned in applying function analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchel, G.R.; Davey, E.; Basso, R.

    2001-01-01

    This paper summarizes the lessons learned in undertaking and applying function analysis based on the recent experience of utility, AECL and international design and assessment projects. Function analysis is an analytical technique that can be used to characterize and asses the functions of a system and is widely recognized as an essential component of a 'systematic' approach to design, on that integrated operational and user requirements into the standard design process. (author)

  15. Positive Behavior Support and Applied Behavior Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.; Foxx, R. M.; Jacobson, J. W.; Green, G.; Mulick, J. A.

    2006-01-01

    This article reviews the origins and characteristics of the positive behavior support (PBS) movement and examines those features in the context of the field of applied behavior analysis (ABA). We raise a number of concerns about PBS as an approach to delivery of behavioral services and its impact on how ABA is viewed by those in human services. We…

  16. Applied Behavior Analysis: Beyond Discrete Trial Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steege, Mark W.; Mace, F. Charles; Perry, Lora; Longenecker, Harold

    2007-01-01

    We discuss the problem of autism-specific special education programs representing themselves as Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) programs when the only ABA intervention employed is Discrete Trial Teaching (DTT), and often for limited portions of the school day. Although DTT has many advantages to recommend its use, it is not well suited to teach…

  17. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  18. Applying Evolutionary Genetics to Developmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Maxwell C. K.; Procter, Andrew C.; Goldstone, Jared V.; Foox, Jonathan; DeSalle, Robert; Mattingly, Carolyn J.; Siddall, Mark E.; Timme-Laragy, Alicia R.

    2018-01-01

    Evolutionary thinking continues to challenge our views on health and disease. Yet, there is a communication gap between evolutionary biologists and toxicologists in recognizing the connections among developmental pathways, high-throughput screening, and birth defects in humans. To increase our capability in identifying potential developmental toxicants in humans, we propose to apply evolutionary genetics to improve the experimental design and data interpretation with various in vitro and whole-organism models. We review five molecular systems of stress response and update 18 consensual cell-cell signaling pathways that are the hallmark for early development, organogenesis, and differentiation; and revisit the principles of teratology in light of recent advances in high-throughput screening, big data techniques, and systems toxicology. Multiscale systems modeling plays an integral role in the evolutionary approach to cross-species extrapolation. Phylogenetic analysis and comparative bioinformatics are both valuable tools in identifying and validating the molecular initiating events that account for adverse developmental outcomes in humans. The discordance of susceptibility between test species and humans (ontogeny) reflects their differences in evolutionary history (phylogeny). This synthesis not only can lead to novel applications in developmental toxicity and risk assessment, but also can pave the way for applying an evo-devo perspective to the study of developmental origins of health and disease. PMID:28267574

  19. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  20. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  1. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  2. Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

    2018-06-01

    Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Applied research in uncertainty modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ayyub, Bilal

    2005-01-01

    Uncertainty has been a concern to engineers, managers, and scientists for many years. For a long time uncertainty has been considered synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Since the early sixties views on uncertainty have become more heterogeneous. In the past forty years numerous tools that model uncertainty, above and beyond statistics, have been proposed by several engineers and scientists. The tool/method to model uncertainty in a specific context should really be chosen by considering the features of the phenomenon under consideration, not independent of what is known about the system and what causes uncertainty. In this fascinating overview of the field, the authors provide broad coverage of uncertainty analysis/modeling and its application. Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis presents the perspectives of various researchers and practitioners on uncertainty analysis and modeling outside their own fields and domain expertise. Rather than focusing explicitly on...

  4. Functional Data Analysis Applied in Chemometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Muller, Martha

    nutritional status and metabolic phenotype. We want to understand how metabolomic spectra can be analysed using functional data analysis to detect the in uence of dierent factors on specic metabolites. These factors can include, for example, gender, diet culture or dietary intervention. In Paper I we apply...... representation of each spectrum. Subset selection of wavelet coecients generates the input to mixed models. Mixed-model methodology enables us to take the study design into account while modelling covariates. Bootstrap-based inference preserves the correlation structure between curves and enables the estimation...

  5. Applied spectrophotometry: analysis of a biochemical mixture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbo, Toni A; Schultz, Emeric; Borland, Michael G; Pugh, Michael Eugene

    2013-01-01

    Spectrophotometric analysis is essential for determining biomolecule concentration of a solution and is employed ubiquitously in biochemistry and molecular biology. The application of the Beer-Lambert-Bouguer Lawis routinely used to determine the concentration of DNA, RNA or protein. There is however a significant difference in determining the concentration of a given species (RNA, DNA, protein) in isolation (a contrived circumstance) as opposed to determining that concentration in the presence of other species (a more realistic situation). To present the student with a more realistic laboratory experience and also to fill a hole that we believe exists in student experience prior to reaching a biochemistry course, we have devised a three week laboratory experience designed so that students learn to: connect laboratory practice with theory, apply the Beer-Lambert-Bougert Law to biochemical analyses, demonstrate the utility and limitations of example quantitative colorimetric assays, demonstrate the utility and limitations of UV analyses for biomolecules, develop strategies for analysis of a solution of unknown biomolecular composition, use digital micropipettors to make accurate and precise measurements, and apply graphing software. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  7. Applying the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM) to portfolio selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes Santos, Joost; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2004-06-01

    The analysis of risk-return tradeoffs and their practical applications to portfolio analysis paved the way for Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which won Harry Markowitz a 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics. A typical approach in measuring a portfolio's expected return is based on the historical returns of the assets included in a portfolio. On the other hand, portfolio risk is usually measured using volatility, which is derived from the historical variance-covariance relationships among the portfolio assets. This article focuses on assessing portfolio risk, with emphasis on extreme risks. To date, volatility is a major measure of risk owing to its simplicity and validity for relatively small asset price fluctuations. Volatility is a justified measure for stable market performance, but it is weak in addressing portfolio risk under aberrant market fluctuations. Extreme market crashes such as that on October 19, 1987 ("Black Monday") and catastrophic events such as the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 that led to a four-day suspension of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are a few examples where measuring risk via volatility can lead to inaccurate predictions. Thus, there is a need for a more robust metric of risk. By invoking the principles of the extreme-risk-analysis method through the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM), this article contributes to the modeling of extreme risks in portfolio performance. A measure of an extreme portfolio risk, denoted by f(4), is defined as the conditional expectation for a lower-tail region of the distribution of the possible portfolio returns. This article presents a multiobjective problem formulation consisting of optimizing expected return and f(4), whose solution is determined using Evolver-a software that implements a genetic algorithm. Under business-as-usual market scenarios, the results of the proposed PMRM portfolio selection model are found to be compatible with those of the volatility-based model

  8. Tissue Microarray Analysis Applied to Bone Diagenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mello, Rafael Barrios; Silva, Maria Regina Regis; Alves, Maria Teresa Seixas; Evison, Martin Paul; Guimarães, Marco Aurelio; Francisco, Rafaella Arrabaca; Astolphi, Rafael Dias; Iwamura, Edna Sadayo Miazato

    2017-01-04

    Taphonomic processes affecting bone post mortem are important in forensic, archaeological and palaeontological investigations. In this study, the application of tissue microarray (TMA) analysis to a sample of femoral bone specimens from 20 exhumed individuals of known period of burial and age at death is described. TMA allows multiplexing of subsamples, permitting standardized comparative analysis of adjacent sections in 3-D and of representative cross-sections of a large number of specimens. Standard hematoxylin and eosin, periodic acid-Schiff and silver methenamine, and picrosirius red staining, and CD31 and CD34 immunohistochemistry were applied to TMA sections. Osteocyte and osteocyte lacuna counts, percent bone matrix loss, and fungal spheroid element counts could be measured and collagen fibre bundles observed in all specimens. Decalcification with 7% nitric acid proceeded more rapidly than with 0.5 M EDTA and may offer better preservation of histological and cellular structure. No endothelial cells could be detected using CD31 and CD34 immunohistochemistry. Correlation between osteocytes per lacuna and age at death may reflect reported age-related responses to microdamage. Methodological limitations and caveats, and results of the TMA analysis of post mortem diagenesis in bone are discussed, and implications for DNA survival and recovery considered.

  9. Applied linear algebra and matrix analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Shores, Thomas S

    2018-01-01

    In its second edition, this textbook offers a fresh approach to matrix and linear algebra. Its blend of theory, computational exercises, and analytical writing projects is designed to highlight the interplay between these aspects of an application. This approach places special emphasis on linear algebra as an experimental science that provides tools for solving concrete problems. The second edition’s revised text discusses applications of linear algebra like graph theory and network modeling methods used in Google’s PageRank algorithm. Other new materials include modeling examples of diffusive processes, linear programming, image processing, digital signal processing, and Fourier analysis. These topics are woven into the core material of Gaussian elimination and other matrix operations; eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and discrete dynamical systems; and the geometrical aspects of vector spaces. Intended for a one-semester undergraduate course without a strict calculus prerequisite, Applied Linear Algebra and M...

  10. Reliability analysis applied to structural tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, P.; Payne, A. O.

    1972-01-01

    The application of reliability theory to predict, from structural fatigue test data, the risk of failure of a structure under service conditions because its load-carrying capability is progressively reduced by the extension of a fatigue crack, is considered. The procedure is applicable to both safe-life and fail-safe structures and, for a prescribed safety level, it will enable an inspection procedure to be planned or, if inspection is not feasible, it will evaluate the life to replacement. The theory has been further developed to cope with the case of structures with initial cracks, such as can occur in modern high-strength materials which are susceptible to the formation of small flaws during the production process. The method has been applied to a structure of high-strength steel and the results are compared with those obtained by the current life estimation procedures. This has shown that the conventional methods can be unconservative in certain cases, depending on the characteristics of the structure and the design operating conditions. The suitability of the probabilistic approach to the interpretation of the results from full-scale fatigue testing of aircraft structures is discussed and the assumptions involved are examined.

  11. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  12. Epithermal neutron activation analysis in applied microbiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marina Frontasyeva

    2012-01-01

    Some results from applying epithermal neutron activation analysis at FLNP JINR, Dubna, Russia, in medical biotechnology, environmental biotechnology and industrial biotechnology are reviewed. In the biomedical experiments biomass from the blue-green alga Spirulina platensis (S. platensis) has been used as a matrix for the development of pharmaceutical substances containing such essential trace elements as selenium, chromium and iodine. The feasibility of target-oriented introduction of these elements into S. platensis biocomplexes retaining its protein composition and natural beneficial properties was shown. The absorption of mercury on growth dynamics of S. platensis and other bacterial strains was observed. Detoxification of Cr and Hg by Arthrobacter globiformis 151B was demonstrated. Microbial synthesis of technologically important silver nanoparticles by the novel actinomycete strain Streptomyces glaucus 71 MD and blue-green alga S. platensis were characterized by a combined use of transmission electron microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive analysis of X-rays. It was established that the tested actinomycete S. glaucus 71 MD produces silver nanoparticles extracellularly when acted upon by the silver nitrate solution, which offers a great advantage over an intracellular process of synthesis from the point of view of applications. The synthesis of silver nanoparticles by S. platensis proceeded differently under the short-term and long-term silver action. (author)

  13. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  14. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  15. Analysis of the interaction between experimental and applied behavior analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virues-Ortega, Javier; Hurtado-Parrado, Camilo; Cox, Alison D; Pear, Joseph J

    2014-01-01

    To study the influences between basic and applied research in behavior analysis, we analyzed the coauthorship interactions of authors who published in JABA and JEAB from 1980 to 2010. We paid particular attention to authors who published in both JABA and JEAB (dual authors) as potential agents of cross-field interactions. We present a comprehensive analysis of dual authors' coauthorship interactions using social networks methodology and key word analysis. The number of dual authors more than doubled (26 to 67) and their productivity tripled (7% to 26% of JABA and JEAB articles) between 1980 and 2010. Dual authors stood out in terms of number of collaborators, number of publications, and ability to interact with multiple groups within the field. The steady increase in JEAB and JABA interactions through coauthors and the increasing range of topics covered by dual authors provide a basis for optimism regarding the progressive integration of basic and applied behavior analysis. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  16. Probabilistic safety analysis applied to RBMK reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerez Martin, L.; Fernandez Ramos, P.

    1995-01-01

    The project financed by the European Union ''Revision of RBMK Reactor Safety was divided into nine Topic Groups dealing with different aspects of safety. The area covered by Topic Group 9 was Probabilistic Safety Analysis. TG9 will have touched on some of the problems discussed by other groups, although in terms of the systematic quantification of the impact of design characteristics and RBMK reactor operating practices on the risk of core damage. On account of the reduced time scale and the resources available for the project, the analysis was made using a simplified method based on the results of PSAs conducted in Western countries and on the judgement of the group members. The simplifies method is based on the concepts of Qualification, Redundancy and Automatic Actuation of the systems considered. PSA experience shows that systems complying with the above-mentioned concepts have a failure probability of 1.0E-3 when redundancy is simple, ie two similar equipment items capable of carrying out the same function. In general terms, this value can be considered to be dominated by potential common cause failures. The value considered above changes according to factors that have a positive effect upon it, such as an additional redundancy with a different equipment item (eg a turbo pumps and a motor pump), individual trains with good separations, etc, or a negative effect, such as the absence of suitable periodical tests, the need for operators to perform manual operations, etc. Similarly, possible actions required by the operator during accident sequences are assigned failure probability values between 1 and 1.0E-4, according to the complexity of the action (including local actions to be performed outside the control room) and the time available

  17. Social network analysis applied to team sports analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Clemente, Filipe Manuel; Mendes, Rui Sousa

    2016-01-01

    Explaining how graph theory and social network analysis can be applied to team sports analysis, This book presents useful approaches, models and methods that can be used to characterise the overall properties of team networks and identify the prominence of each team player. Exploring the different possible network metrics that can be utilised in sports analysis, their possible applications and variances from situation to situation, the respective chapters present an array of illustrative case studies. Identifying the general concepts of social network analysis and network centrality metrics, readers are shown how to generate a methodological protocol for data collection. As such, the book provides a valuable resource for students of the sport sciences, sports engineering, applied computation and the social sciences.

  18. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  19. Colilert® applied to food analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria José Rodrigues

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Colilert® (IDEXX was originally developed for the simultaneous enumeration of coliforms and E. coli in water samples and has been used for the quality control routine of drinking, swimming pools, fresh, coastal and waste waters (Grossi et al., 2013. The Colilert® culture medium contains the indicator nutrient 4-Methylumbelliferyl-β-D-Glucuronide (MUG. MUG acts as a substrate for the E. coli enzyme β-glucuronidase, from which a fluorescent compound is produced. A positive MUG result produces fluorescence when viewed under an ultraviolet lamp. If the test fluorescence is equal to or greater than that of the control, the presence of E. coli has been confirmed (Lopez-Roldan et al., 2013. The present work aimed to apply Colilert® to the enumeration of E. coli in different foods, through the comparison of results against the reference method (ISO 16649-2, 2001 for E. coli food analysis. The study was divided in two stages. During the first stage ten different types of foods were analyzed with Colilert®, these included pastry, raw meat, ready to eat meals, yogurt, raw seabream and salmon, and cooked shrimp. From these it were approved the following: pastry with custard; raw minced pork; soup "caldo-verde"; raw vegetable salad (lettuce and carrots and solid yogurt. The approved foods presented a better insertion in the tray, the colour of the wells was lighter and the UV reading was easier. In the second stage the foods were artificially contaminated with 2 log/g of E. coli (ATCC 25922 and analyzed. Colilert® proved to be an accurate method and the counts were similar to the ones obtained with the reference method. In the present study, the Colilert® method did not reveal neither false-positive or false-negative results, however sometimes the results were difficult to read due to the presence of green fluorescence in some wells. Generally Colilert® was an easy and rapid method, but less objective and more expensive than the reference method.

  20. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  1. An extended risk assessment approach for chemical plants applied to a study related to pipe ruptures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milazzo, Maria Francesca; Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessments and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) in particular have been used in the chemical industry for many years to support decision-making on the choice of arrangements and measures associated with chemical processes, transportation and storage of dangerous substances. The assessments have been founded on a risk perspective seeing risk as a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences. In this paper we point to the need for extending this approach to place a stronger emphasis on uncertainties. A recently developed risk framework designed to better reflect such uncertainties is presented and applied to a chemical plant and specifically the analysis of accidental events related to the rupture of pipes. Two different ways of implementing the framework are presented, one based on the introduction of probability models and one without. The differences between the standard approach and the extended approaches are discussed from a theoretical point of view as well as from a practical risk analyst perspective.

  2. Moving Forward: Positive Behavior Support and Applied Behavior Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tincani, Matt

    2007-01-01

    A controversy has emerged about the relationship between positive behavior support and applied behavior analysis. Some behavior analysts suggest that positive behavior support and applied behavior analysis are the same (e.g., Carr & Sidener, 2002). Others argue that positive behavior support is harmful to applied behavior analysis (e.g., Johnston,…

  3. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  4. Introduction: Conversation Analysis in Applied Linguistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sert, Olcay; Seedhouse, Paul

    2011-01-01

    This short, introductory paper presents an up-to-date account of works within the field of Applied Linguistics which have been influenced by a Conversation Analytic paradigm. The article reviews recent studies in classroom interaction, materials development, proficiency assessment and language teacher education. We believe that the publication of…

  5. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  6. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  7. Applied time series analysis and innovative computing

    CERN Document Server

    Ao, Sio-Iong

    2010-01-01

    This text is a systematic, state-of-the-art introduction to the use of innovative computing paradigms as an investigative tool for applications in time series analysis. It includes frontier case studies based on recent research.

  8. Tissue Microarray Analysis Applied to Bone Diagenesis

    OpenAIRE

    Barrios Mello, Rafael; Regis Silva, Maria Regina; Seixas Alves, Maria Teresa; Evison, Martin; Guimarães, Marco Aurélio; Francisco, Rafaella Arrabaça; Dias Astolphi, Rafael; Miazato Iwamura, Edna Sadayo

    2017-01-01

    Taphonomic processes affecting bone post mortem are important in forensic, archaeological and palaeontological investigations. In this study, the application of tissue microarray (TMA) analysis to a sample of femoral bone specimens from 20 exhumed individuals of known period of burial and age at death is described. TMA allows multiplexing of subsamples, permitting standardized comparative analysis of adjacent sections in 3-D and of representative cross-sections of a large number of specimens....

  9. Meta-analysis in applied ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Gavin

    2010-02-23

    This overview examines research synthesis in applied ecology and conservation. Vote counting and pooling unweighted averages are widespread despite the superiority of syntheses based on weighted combination of effects. Such analyses allow exploration of methodological uncertainty in addition to consistency of effects across species, space and time, but exploring heterogeneity remains controversial. Meta-analyses are required to generalize in ecology, and to inform evidence-based decision-making, but the more sophisticated statistical techniques and registers of research used in other disciplines must be employed in ecology to fully realize their benefits.

  10. Applied surface analysis of metal materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiss, Z.

    1987-01-01

    The applications of surface analytical techniques in the solution of technological problems in metalurgy and engineering are reviewed. Some important application areas such as corrosion, grain boundary segregation and metallurgical coatings are presented together with specific requirements for the type of information which is necessary for solving particular problems. The techniques discussed include: electron spectroscopies (Auger Electron Spectroscopy, Electron Spectroscopy for Chemical Analysis), ion spectroscopies (Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry, Ion Scattering Spectroscopy), Rutherford Back-Scattering, nuclear reaction analysis, optical methods (Glow Discharge Optical Emission Spectrometry), ellipsometry, infrared and Raman spectroscopy, the Moessbauer spectroscopy and methods of consumptive depth profile analysis. Principles and analytical features of these methods are demonstrated and examples of their applications to metallurgy are taken from recent literature. (author). 4 figs., 2 tabs., 112 refs

  11. Applied modal analysis of wind turbine blades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, H.B.; Kristensen, O.J.D.

    2003-01-01

    In this project modal analysis has been used to determine the natural frequencies, damping and the mode shapes for wind turbine blades. Different methods to measure the position and adjust the direction of the measuring points are discussed. Differentequipment for mounting the accelerometers...... is investigated by repeated measurement on the same wind turbine blade. Furthermore the flexibility of the test set-up is investigated, by use ofaccelerometers mounted on the flexible adapter plate during the measurement campaign. One experimental campaign investigated the results obtained from a loaded...... and unloaded wind turbine blade. During this campaign the modal analysis are performed on ablade mounted in a horizontal and a vertical position respectively. Finally the results obtained from modal analysis carried out on a wind turbine blade are compared with results obtained from the Stig Øyes blade_EV1...

  12. Applied quantitative analysis in the social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Petscher, Yaacov; Compton, Donald L

    2013-01-01

    To say that complex data analyses are ubiquitous in the education and social sciences might be an understatement. Funding agencies and peer-review journals alike require that researchers use the most appropriate models and methods for explaining phenomena. Univariate and multivariate data structures often require the application of more rigorous methods than basic correlational or analysis of variance models. Additionally, though a vast set of resources may exist on how to run analysis, difficulties may be encountered when explicit direction is not provided as to how one should run a model

  13. Applied Spectrophotometry: Analysis of a Biochemical Mixture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbo, Toni A.; Schultz, Emeric; Borland, Michael G.; Pugh, Michael Eugene

    2013-01-01

    Spectrophotometric analysis is essential for determining biomolecule concentration of a solution and is employed ubiquitously in biochemistry and molecular biology. The application of the Beer-Lambert-Bouguer Lawis routinely used to determine the concentration of DNA, RNA or protein. There is however a significant difference in determining the…

  14. Thermal analysis applied to irradiated propolis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuda, Andrea Harumi; Machado, Luci Brocardo; Mastro, N.L. del E-mail: nelida@usp.br

    2002-03-01

    Propolis is a resinous hive product, collected by bees. Raw propolis requires a decontamination procedure and irradiation appears as a promising technique for this purpose. The valuable properties of propolis for food and pharmaceutical industries have led to increasing interest in its technological behavior. Thermal analysis is a chemical analysis that gives information about changes on heating of great importance for technological applications. Ground propolis samples were {sup 60}Co gamma irradiated with 0 and 10 kGy. Thermogravimetry curves shown a similar multi-stage decomposition pattern for both irradiated and unirradiated samples up to 600 deg. C. Similarly, through differential scanning calorimetry , a coincidence of melting point of irradiated and unirradiated samples was found. The results suggest that the irradiation process do not interfere on the thermal properties of propolis when irradiated up to 10 kGy.

  15. Applied modal analysis of wind turbine blades

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broen Pedersen, H.; Dahl Kristensen, O.J.

    2003-02-01

    In this project modal analysis has been used to determine the natural frequencies, damping and the mode shapes for wind turbine blades. Different methods to measure the position and adjust the direction of the measuring points are discussed. Different equipment for mounting the accelerometers are investigated and the most suitable are chosen. Different excitation techniques are tried during experimental campaigns. After a discussion the pendulum hammer were chosen, and a new improved hammer was manufactured. Some measurement errors are investigated. The ability to repeat the measured results is investigated by repeated measurement on the same wind turbine blade. Furthermore the flexibility of the test set-up is investigated, by use of accelerometers mounted on the flexible adapter plate during the measurement campaign. One experimental campaign investigated the results obtained from a loaded and unloaded wind turbine blade. During this campaign the modal analysis are performed on a blade mounted in a horizontal and a vertical position respectively. Finally the results obtained from modal analysis carried out on a wind turbine blade are compared with results obtained from the Stig Oeyes blade{sub E}V1 program. (au)

  16. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  17. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  18. CONSIDERATIONS ON RISK MANAGEMENT APPLIED TO FOREST FIRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioan Valentin Marcel Posea

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Forest risk and management are ubiquitous in any socio-economic activity. Forestry, more than any other field, is at risk from fire. Consequently, it appears the necessity to implement a fire risk management that could resolve, at least partially, the specific problems. This study attempts to identify the specific stages and processes of forest fire risk management and their content. At the same time, I will try to highlight how a forest fire risk management process planning can be achieved and to present a way of achieving the Plan. I also deem necessary a forest fire risk monitoring and control system that I have built using the Deming cycle.

  19. Artificial intelligence applied to process signal analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corsberg, Dan

    1988-01-01

    Many space station processes are highly complex systems subject to sudden, major transients. In any complex process control system, a critical aspect of the human/machine interface is the analysis and display of process information. Human operators can be overwhelmed by large clusters of alarms that inhibit their ability to diagnose and respond to a disturbance. Using artificial intelligence techniques and a knowledge base approach to this problem, the power of the computer can be used to filter and analyze plant sensor data. This will provide operators with a better description of the process state. Once a process state is recognized, automatic action could be initiated and proper system response monitored.

  20. Thermal transient analysis applied to horizontal wells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duong, A.N. [Society of Petroleum Engineers, Canadian Section, Calgary, AB (Canada)]|[ConocoPhillips Canada Resources Corp., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-10-15

    Steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) is a thermal recovery process used to recover bitumen and heavy oil. This paper presented a newly developed model to estimate cooling time and formation thermal diffusivity by using a thermal transient analysis along the horizontal wellbore under a steam heating process. This radial conduction heating model provides information on the heat influx distribution along a horizontal wellbore or elongated steam chamber, and is therefore important for determining the effectiveness of the heating process in the start-up phase in SAGD. Net heat flux estimation in the target formation during start-up can be difficult to measure because of uncertainties regarding heat loss in the vertical section; steam quality along the horizontal segment; distribution of steam along the wellbore; operational conditions; and additional effects of convection heating. The newly presented model can be considered analogous to pressure transient analysis of a buildup after a constant pressure drawdown. The model is based on an assumption of an infinite-acting system. This paper also proposed a new concept of a heating ring to measure the heat storage in the heated bitumen at the time of testing. Field observations were used to demonstrate how the model can be used to save heat energy, conserve steam and enhance bitumen recovery. 18 refs., 14 figs., 2 appendices.

  1. Photometric analysis applied in determining facial type

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Flaquer Martins

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: In orthodontics, determining the facial type is a key element in the prescription of a correct diagnosis. In the early days of our specialty, observation and measurement of craniofacial structures were done directly on the face, in photographs or plaster casts. With the development of radiographic methods, cephalometric analysis replaced the direct facial analysis. Seeking to validate the analysis of facial soft tissues, this work compares two different methods used to determining the facial types, the anthropometric and the cephalometric methods. METHODS: The sample consisted of sixty-four Brazilian individuals, adults, Caucasian, of both genders, who agreed to participate in this research. All individuals had lateral cephalograms and facial frontal photographs. The facial types were determined by the Vert Index (cephalometric and the Facial Index (photographs. RESULTS: The agreement analysis (Kappa, made for both types of analysis, found an agreement of 76.5%. CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that the Facial Index can be used as an adjunct to orthodontic diagnosis, or as an alternative method for pre-selection of a sample, avoiding that research subjects have to undergo unnecessary tests.INTRODUÇÃO: em Ortodontia, a determinação do tipo facial é um elemento-chave na prescrição de um diagnóstico correto. Nos primórdios de nossa especialidade, a observação e a medição das estruturas craniofaciais eram feitas diretamente na face, em fotografias ou em modelos de gesso. Com o desenvolvimento dos métodos radiográficos, a análise cefalométrica foi substituindo a análise facial direta. Visando legitimar o estudo dos tecidos moles faciais, esse trabalho comparou a determinação do tipo facial pelos métodos antropométrico e cefalométrico. MÉTODOS: a amostra constou de sessenta e quatro indivíduos brasileiros, adultos, leucodermas, de ambos os sexos, que aceitaram participar da pesquisa. De todos os indivíduos da amostra

  2. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  3. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  4. Investment risk management by applying contemporary modern portfolio theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakšić Milena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment risk is the principal threat to the assets side of the balance sheets of financial institutions. It is evident that investors who concentrate their wealth on one type of securities can rarely be found. Instead, they tend to invest diversified portfolio of securities. This reduces the degree of risk of the expected return, which depends both on the absolute risk of each investment in the portfolio, and the relationship that exists between individual investments within the portfolio. The paper analyzes the investment risk management by using modern portfolio theory in both national and global financial f lows. At the same time, the paper considers the risk management models that ensures efficient portfolio diversification, aiming at investment risk reduction. It is pointed out that the investment risk management in modern financial f lows is a complex process, and that the development of financial theory goes towards improving, soft risk management method.

  5. Gradient pattern analysis applied to galaxy morphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, R. R.; de Carvalho, R. R.; Sautter, R. A.; Barchi, P. H.; Stalder, D. H.; Moura, T. C.; Rembold, S. B.; Morell, D. R. F.; Ferreira, N. C.

    2018-06-01

    Gradient pattern analysis (GPA) is a well-established technique for measuring gradient bilateral asymmetries of a square numerical lattice. This paper introduces an improved version of GPA designed for galaxy morphometry. We show the performance of the new method on a selected sample of 54 896 objects from the SDSS-DR7 in common with Galaxy Zoo 1 catalogue. The results suggest that the second gradient moment, G2, has the potential to dramatically improve over more conventional morphometric parameters. It separates early- from late-type galaxies better (˜ 90 per cent) than the CAS system (C˜ 79 per cent, A˜ 50 per cent, S˜ 43 per cent) and a benchmark test shows that it is applicable to hundreds of thousands of galaxies using typical processing systems.

  6. Energy analysis applied to uranium resource estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortimer, N.D.

    1980-01-01

    It is pointed out that fuel prices and ore costs are interdependent, and that in estimating ore costs (involving the cost of fuels used to mine and process the uranium) it is necessary to take into account the total use of energy by the entire fuel system, through the technique of energy analysis. The subject is discussed, and illustrated with diagrams, under the following heads: estimate of how total workable resources would depend on production costs; sensitivity of nuclear electricity prices to ore costs; variation of net energy requirement with ore grade for a typical PWR reactor design; variation of average fundamental cost of nuclear electricity with ore grade; variation of cumulative uranium resources with current maximum ore costs. (U.K.)

  7. Toward applied behavior analysis of life aloft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, J. V.

    1990-01-01

    This article deals with systems at multiple levels, at least from cell to organization. It also deals with learning, decision making, and other behavior at multiple levels. Technological development of a human behavioral ecosystem appropriate to space environments requires an analytic and synthetic orientation, explicitly experimental in nature, dictated by scientific and pragmatic considerations, and closely approximating procedures of established effectiveness in other areas of natural science. The conceptual basis of such an approach has its roots in environmentalism which has two main features: (1) knowledge comes from experience rather than from innate ideas, divine revelation, or other obscure sources; and (2) action is governed by consequences rather than by instinct, reason, will, beliefs, attitudes or even the currently fashionable cognitions. Without an experimentally derived data base founded upon such a functional analysis of human behavior, the overgenerality of "ecological systems" approaches render them incapable of ensuring the successful establishment of enduring space habitats. Without an experimentally derived function account of individual behavioral variability, a natural science of behavior cannot exist. And without a natural science of behavior, the social sciences will necessarily remain in their current status as disciplines of less than optimal precision or utility. Such a functional analysis of human performance should provide an operational account of behavior change in a manner similar to the way in which Darwin's approach to natural selection accounted for the evolution of phylogenetic lines (i.e., in descriptive, nonteleological terms). Similarly, as Darwin's account has subsequently been shown to be consonant with information obtained at the cellular level, so too should behavior principles ultimately prove to be in accord with an account of ontogenetic adaptation at a biochemical level. It would thus seem obvious that the most

  8. PIXE analysis applied to characterized water samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Maristela S.; Carneiro, Luana Gomes; Medeiros, Geiza; Sampaio, Camilla; Martorell, Ana Beatriz Targino; Gouvea, Stella; Cunha, Kenya Moore Dias da

    2011-01-01

    Araxa, in Brazil, is a naturally high background area located in the State of Minas Gerais with a population of about 93 672 people. Araxa is historical city famous for its mineral water sources and mud from Termas de Araxa spa, which have been used for therapeutic, and recreation purposes. Other important aspect of economy of the city are mining and metallurgic industries. In the Araxa area is located the largest deposit of pyrochlore, a niobium mineral, and also a deposit of apatite, a phosphate mineral both containing Th and U associated to crystal lattice. The minerals are obtained from open pit mines, the minerals are processed in industrial also located in city of Araxa, these plants process the pyrochlore and apatite to obtain the Fe-Nb alloy and the concentrate of phosphate, respectively. Studies were developed in this area to assessment the occupational risk of the workers due to exposure to dust particles during the routine working, however very few studies evaluated the water contamination outside the mines in order to determine the metal (stables elements) concentrations in water and also the concentrations of the radionuclides in water. This paper presents the previous results of a study to identify and determine the concentrations of metals (stables elements) and radionuclides in river around the city. The water from these rivers is used as drinking water and irrigation water. The water samples were collected in different rivers around the Araxa city and the samples were analyzed using PIXE technique. A proton beam of 2 MeV obtained from the van de Graaff electrostatic accelerator was used to induce the characteristic X-rays. S, K, Ca, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Zn, Ba, Pb and U were identified in the mass spectrum of the samples. The elemental mass concentrations were compared using a non-parametric statistical test. The results of the statistical test showed that the elemental mass concentrations did not present the same distribution. These results indicated

  9. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  10. Digital photoelastic analysis applied to implant dentistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, K.; Hariprasad, M. P.; Bhuvanewari, S.

    2016-12-01

    Development of improved designs of implant systems in dentistry have necessitated the study of stress fields in the implant regions of the mandible/maxilla for better understanding of the biomechanics involved. Photoelasticity has been used for various studies related to dental implants in view of whole field visualization of maximum shear stress in the form of isochromatic contours. The potential of digital photoelasticity has not been fully exploited in the field of implant dentistry. In this paper, the fringe field in the vicinity of the connected implants (All-On-Four® concept) is analyzed using recent advances in digital photoelasticity. Initially, a novel 3-D photoelastic model making procedure, to closely mimic all the anatomical features of the human mandible is proposed. By choosing appropriate orientation of the model with respect to the light path, the essential region of interest were sought to be analysed while keeping the model under live loading conditions. Need for a sophisticated software module to carefully identify the model domain has been brought out. For data extraction, five-step method is used and isochromatics are evaluated by twelve fringe photoelasticity. In addition to the isochromatic fringe field, whole field isoclinic data is also obtained for the first time in implant dentistry, which could throw important information in improving the structural stability of the implant systems. Analysis is carried out for the implant in the molar as well as the incisor region. In addition, the interaction effects of loaded molar implant on the incisor area are also studied.

  11. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  12. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  13. Applying Four Different Risk Models in Local Ore Selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richmond, Andrew

    2002-01-01

    Given the uncertainty in grade at a mine location, a financially risk-averse decision-maker may prefer to incorporate this uncertainty into the ore selection process. A FORTRAN program risksel is presented to calculate local risk-adjusted optimal ore selections using a negative exponential utility function and three dominance models: mean-variance, mean-downside risk, and stochastic dominance. All four methods are demonstrated in a grade control environment. In the case study, optimal selections range with the magnitude of financial risk that a decision-maker is prepared to accept. Except for the stochastic dominance method, the risk models reassign material from higher cost to lower cost processing options as the aversion to financial risk increases. The stochastic dominance model usually was unable to determine the optimal local selection

  14. Managing Acquisition Risk by Applying Proven Best Practices

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Evans, Mike; Segura, Corinne; Doherty, Frank

    2005-01-01

    .... While risk management is ingrained within their culture, these organizations take active measures to sustain effective implementation across programs by routinely conducting assessments to maintain...

  15. Risk management methodology applied at thermal power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppolino, R.

    2007-01-01

    Nowadays, the responsibility of the environmental risks, connected the productive processes and to the products of an enterprise, represent one of the main aspects which an adequate management approach has to foresee. In this paper it has been evaluated the guidelines followed by Edipower Thermoelectric Power plant of S. Filippo di Mela (ME). These guidelines were given in order to manage the chemical risk connected to the usage of various chemicals with which the workers get in touch when identifying the risks of the methodology introduced by the AZ/NZS 4360:2004 Risk Management Standard

  16. Applied research of environmental monitoring using instrumental neutron activation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Young Sam; Moon, Jong Hwa; Chung, Young Ju

    1997-08-01

    This technical report is written as a guide book for applied research of environmental monitoring using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis. The contents are as followings; sampling and sample preparation as a airborne particulate matter, analytical methodologies, data evaluation and interpretation, basic statistical methods of data analysis applied in environmental pollution studies. (author). 23 refs., 7 tabs., 9 figs.

  17. Shutdown risk management applied at Philadelphia Electric Company

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dagan, William J.; True, Douglas E.; Wilson, Thomas; Truax, William

    2004-01-01

    The development and implementation of an effective risk management program requires basic risk or safety knowledge and the conversion of such information into effective management tools. ERIN Engineering and Research, Inc., under contract to the Electric Power Research Institute, has developed an effective program. Outage Risk Assessment and Management (ORAM), to provide plant and management personnel with understandable results of shutdown risk studies. With this tool, the impact of plans and decision options can be readily determined and displayed for the decision maker. This paper describes these methods and their application to the Limerick Nuclear Station of Philadelphia Electric Company. It also sets forth a broader application of these methods to include support of management decisions at-power and following forced outages. The result is an integrated risk management framework which can allow management and technical personnel to utilize readily available and understandable risk insights to optimize each activity. This paper addresses the resolution of several key issues in detail: How was the ORAM risk management method employed to represent the existing plant shutdown procedures and policies? How did the ORAM risk management method enhance the decision-making ability of the outage management staff? How was the ORAM software efficiently integrated with the outage scheduling software? How is quantitative risk information generated and used for outage planning and control? The ORAM risk management philosophy utilizes a series of colors to depict various risk configurations. Each such configuration has associated with it clear guidance. By modifying the conditions existing in the plant it is possible to impact the type of risk being encountered as well as the guidance which is appropriate for that period. In addition, the duration of a particular configuration can be effectively managed to reduce the overall risk impact. These are achieved with minimal

  18. ECU@Risk, a methodology for risk management applied to MSMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esteban Crespo Martínez

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Information is the most valuable element for any organization or person in this new century, which, for many companies, is a competitive advantage asset (Vásquez & Gabalán, 2015. However, despite the lack of knowledge about how to protect it properly or the complexity of international standards that indicate procedures to achieve an adequate level of protection, many organizations, especially the MSMEs sector, fails to achieve this goal.Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for information security risk management, which is applicable to the business and organizational environment of the Ecuadorian MSME sector. For this purpose, we analyze several methodologies as Magerit, CRAMM (CCTA Risk Analysis and Management Method, OCTAVE-S, Microsoft Risk Guide, COBIT 5 COSO III. These methodologies are internationally used in risk management of information; in the light of the frameworks of the industry: ISO 27001, 27002, 27005 and 31000.

  19. Applying the welfare model to at-own-risk discharges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna, Lalit Kumar Radha; Menon, Sumytra; Kanesvaran, Ravindran

    2017-08-01

    "At-own-risk discharges" or "self-discharges" evidences an irretrievable breakdown in the patient-clinician relationship when patients leave care facilities before completion of medical treatment and against medical advice. Dissolution of the therapeutic relationship terminates the physician's duty of care and professional liability with respect to care of the patient. Acquiescence of an at-own-risk discharge by the clinician is seen as respecting patient autonomy. The validity of such requests pivot on the assumptions that the patient is fully informed and competent to invoke an at-own-risk discharge and that care up to the point of the at-own-risk discharge meets prevailing clinical standards. Palliative care's use of a multidisciplinary team approach challenges both these assumptions. First by establishing multiple independent therapeutic relations between professionals in the multidisciplinary team and the patient who persists despite an at-own-risk discharge. These enduring therapeutic relationships negate the suggestion that no duty of care is owed the patient. Second, the continued employ of collusion, familial determinations, and the circumnavigation of direct patient involvement in family-centric societies compromises the patient's decision-making capacity and raises questions as to the patient's decision-making capacity and their ability to assume responsibility for the repercussions of invoking an at-own-risk discharge. With the validity of at-own-risk discharge request in question and the welfare and patient interest at stake, an alternative approach to assessing at-own-risk discharge requests are called for. The welfare model circumnavigates these concerns and preserves the patient's welfare through the employ of a multidisciplinary team guided holistic appraisal of the patient's specific situation that is informed by clinical and institutional standards and evidenced-based practice. The welfare model provides a robust decision-making framework for

  20. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  1. Applying lean thinking to risk management in product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willumsen, Pelle Lundquist; Oehmen, Josef; Rossi, Monica

    2017-01-01

    This paper re-conceptualizes risk management (RM) in product development (PD) through a lean thinking perspective. Arguably, risk management in PD projects became a victim of its own success. It is often implemented as a highly formalized, compliance driven activity, ending up disconnected from...... delay or cost overrun. This paper explores the relationship between product development and risk management and proposes to make RM an integrated value adding part of PD. Through a literature review we identify the potential of re-conceptualizing RM through lean thinking. We then conceptualize...

  2. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  3. Natural hazard management high education: laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and applied geomorphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giosa, L.; Margiotta, M. R.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.; Albano, R.; Cappa, G.; Giammatteo, C.; Pagliuca, R.; Piccolo, G.; Statuto, D.

    2009-04-01

    The Environmental Engineering Faculty of University of Basilicata have higher-level course for students in the field of natural hazard. The curriculum provides expertise in the field of prediction, prevention and management of earthquake risk, hydrologic-hydraulic risk, and geomorphological risk. These skills will contribute to the training of specialists, as well as having a thorough knowledge of the genesis and the phenomenology of natural risks, know how to interpret, evaluate and monitor the dynamic of environment and of territory. In addition to basic training in the fields of mathematics and physics, the course of study provides specific lessons relating to seismic and structural dynamics of land, environmental and computational hydraulics, hydrology and applied hydrogeology. In particular in this course there are organized two connected examination arguments: Laboratory of hydrologic and hydraulic risk management and Applied geomorphology. These course foresee the development and resolution of natural hazard problems through the study of a real natural disaster. In the last year, the work project has regarded the collapse of two decantation basins of fluorspar, extracted from some mines in Stava Valley, 19 July 1985, northern Italy. During the development of the course, data and event information has been collected, a guided tour to the places of the disaster has been organized, and finally the application of mathematical models to simulate the disaster and analysis of the results has been carried out. The student work has been presented in a public workshop.

  4. Applying homotopy analysis method for solving differential-difference equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhen; Zou Li; Zhang Hongqing

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, we apply the homotopy analysis method to solving the differential-difference equations. A simple but typical example is applied to illustrate the validity and the great potential of the generalized homotopy analysis method in solving differential-difference equation. Comparisons are made between the results of the proposed method and exact solutions. The results show that the homotopy analysis method is an attractive method in solving the differential-difference equations

  5. Applying the lessons of high risk industries to health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, P

    2003-12-01

    High risk industries such as commercial aviation and the oil and gas industry have achieved exemplary safety performance. This paper reviews how they have managed to do that. The primary reasons are the positive attitudes towards safety and the operation of effective formal safety management systems. The safety culture provides an important explanation of why such organisations perform well. An evolutionary model of safety culture is provided in which there is a range of cultures from the pathological through the reactive to the calculative. Later, the proactive culture can evolve towards the generative organisation, an alternative description of the high reliability organisation. The current status of health care is reviewed, arguing that it has a much higher level of accidents and has a reactive culture, lagging behind both high risk industries studied in both attitude and systematic management of patient risks.

  6. Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Z

    2011-11-01

    With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.

  7. Risk management as applied to collider dipole magnet development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patel, R.

    1992-01-01

    The risk management procedure described here represent sound engineering and management practice. By implementing these practices in the CDM program it has allowed us to maximize the resources for overall productivity. The risk management program is supported by all personnel working for the GDSS CDM program, which includes Engineering, Test, Quality Assurance, Production, Facility, Material and Management. Best of all, it is supported, encouraged, directed and monitored by program management. Using this structured process we are able to identify and resolve problems and issues before they have adverse impact to the program. This procedure serves as a long range Attention-Getter before preventable problems turn into crises. Risk management provides a broad range of potential risk assessment and allows us to utilize management resources and expertise for effective and timely solutions. This is a useful management tool to use in a concurrent engineering environment to reduce the barriers between Design, Test, Production, etc. It provides a creative climate and improves communication. Individuals receive feedback and support, not criticism

  8. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  9. Animal Research in the "Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Timothy L.; Poling, Alan

    2011-01-01

    This review summarizes the 6 studies with nonhuman animal subjects that have appeared in the "Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis" and offers suggestions for future research in this area. Two of the reviewed articles described translational research in which pigeons were used to illustrate and examine behavioral phenomena of applied significance…

  10. Dimensional Analysis with space discrimination applied to Fickian difussion phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz Sanchidrian, C.; Castans, M.

    1989-01-01

    Dimensional Analysis with space discrimination is applied to Fickian difussion phenomena in order to transform its partial differen-tial equations into ordinary ones, and also to obtain in a dimensionl-ess fom the Ficks second law. (Author)

  11. Selecting and applying indicators of ecosystem collapse for risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, Jessica A; Nicholson, Emily; Murray, Nicholas J; Keith, David A; Lester, Rebecca E; Bland, Lucie M

    2018-03-12

    Ongoing ecosystem degradation and transformation are key threats to biodiversity. Measuring ecosystem change towards collapse relies on monitoring indicators that quantify key ecological processes. Yet little guidance is available on selecting and implementing indicators for ecosystem risk assessment. Here, we reviewed indicator use in ecological studies of decline towards collapse in marine pelagic and temperate forest ecosystems. We evaluated the use of indicator selection methods, indicator types (geographic distribution, abiotic, biotic), methods of assessing multiple indicators, and temporal quality of time series. We compared these ecological studies to risk assessments in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List of Ecosystems (RLE), where indicators are used to estimate ecosystem collapse risk. We found that ecological studies and RLE assessments rarely reported how indicators were selected, particularly in terrestrial ecosystems. Few ecological studies and RLE assessments quantified ecosystem change with all three indicator types, and indicators types used varied between marine and terrestrial ecosystem. Several studies used indices or multivariate analyses to assess multiple indicators simultaneously, but RLE assessments did not, as RLE guidelines advise against them. Most studies and RLE assessments used time series spanning at least 30 years, increasing the chance of reliably detecting change. Limited use of indicator selection protocols and infrequent use of all three indicator types may hamper the ability to accurately detect changes. To improve the value of risk assessments for informing policy and management, we recommend using: (i) explicit protocols, including conceptual models, to identify and select indicators; (ii) a range of indicators spanning distributional, abiotic and biotic features; (iii) indices and multivariate analyses with extreme care until guidelines are developed; (iv) time series with sufficient data to

  12. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  13. Applying personal genetic data to injury risk assessment in athletes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrielle T Goodlin

    Full Text Available Recent studies have identified genetic markers associated with risk for certain sports-related injuries and performance-related conditions, with the hope that these markers could be used by individual athletes to personalize their training and diet regimens. We found that we could greatly expand the knowledge base of sports genetic information by using published data originally found in health and disease studies. For example, the results from large genome-wide association studies for low bone mineral density in elderly women can be re-purposed for low bone mineral density in young endurance athletes. In total, we found 124 single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with: anterior cruciate ligament tear, Achilles tendon injury, low bone mineral density and stress fracture, osteoarthritis, vitamin/mineral deficiencies, and sickle cell trait. Of these single nucleotide polymorphisms, 91% have not previously been used in sports genetics. We conducted a pilot program on fourteen triathletes using this expanded knowledge base of genetic variants associated with sports injury. These athletes were genotyped and educated about how their individual genetic make-up affected their personal risk profile during an hour-long personal consultation. Overall, participants were favorable of the program, found it informative, and most acted upon their genetic results. This pilot program shows that recent genetic research provides valuable information to help reduce sports injuries and to optimize nutrition. There are many genetic studies for health and disease that can be mined to provide useful information to athletes about their individual risk for relevant injuries.

  14. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  15. Multiple factors explain injury risk in adolescent elite athletes: Applying a biopsychosocial perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Rosen, P; Frohm, A; Kottorp, A; Fridén, C; Heijne, A

    2017-12-01

    Many risk factors for injury are presented in the literature, few of those are however consistent and the majority is associated with adult and not adolescent elite athletes. The aim was to identify risk factors for injury in adolescent elite athletes, by applying a biopsychosocial approach. A total of 496 adolescent elite athletes (age range 15-19), participating in 16 different sports, were monitored repeatedly over 52 weeks using a valid questionnaire about injuries, training exposure, sleep, stress, nutrition, and competence-based self-esteem. Univariate and multiple Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for risk factors for first reported injury. The main finding was that an increase in training load, training intensity, and at the same time decreasing the sleep volume resulted in a higher risk for injury compared to no change in these variables (HR 2.25, 95% CI, 1.46-3.45, Pself-esteem increased the hazard for injury with 1.02 (HR 95% CI, 1.00-1.04, P=.01). Based on the multiple Cox regression analysis, an athlete having the identified risk factors (Risk Index, competence-based self-esteem), with an average competence-based self-esteem score, had more than a threefold increased risk for injury (HR 3.35), compared to an athlete with a low competence-based self-esteem and no change in sleep or training volume. Our findings confirm injury occurrence as a result of multiple risk factors interacting in complex ways. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  17. The Significance of Regional Analysis in Applied Geography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommers, Lawrence M.

    Regional analysis is central to applied geographic research, contributing to better planning and policy development for a variety of societal problems facing the United States. The development of energy policy serves as an illustration of the capabilities of this type of analysis. The United States has had little success in formulating a national…

  18. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  19. Matrix suites applying when making the commercial-company-activity-andfinancial-risks-express-diagnostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Petrovn Neganova

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an original technique and peculiarities of its use for the express diagnostics of a company and analysis of financial risks. The feature of this technique is potential Russian reality accountance of optimizational transformations of statements in order to minimize taxation and refract the information field of a business system for the apperception. It is based on the conceptual principle of studies of the University of Ghent, according to which, these three cycles affect stability of the companies to the important risk - the risk of bankruptcy. It is noted that the use of matrix analysis can become an additional powerful tool for solving the conceptual verification problem of financial permanence of business systems operation in the marketplace because it allows to determine the internal nature of the underlying processes that occur within an atomic business system and to make every effort to minimize potential and actual manifestations of instability of the external and internal environment of the business system. This method satisfies the multiple set of conditions-equations: apperceptive, asymptotic and simplificational functions that form the basis of calculations for model creation. The technique can be applied by commercial banks in the analysis of the elements of their loan portfolio. Application of this technique allows analyzing the performance of a commercial company in the features of Russian life with minimal iterations.

  20. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  1. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  2. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  3. Applied data analysis and modeling for energy engineers and scientists

    CERN Document Server

    Reddy, T Agami

    2011-01-01

    ""Applied Data Analysis and Modeling for Energy Engineers and Scientists"" discusses mathematical models, data analysis, and decision analysis in modeling. The approach taken in this volume focuses on the modeling and analysis of thermal systems in an engineering environment, while also covering a number of other critical areas. Other material covered includes the tools that researchers and engineering professionals will need in order to explore different analysis methods, use critical assessment skills and reach sound engineering conclusions. The book also covers process and system design and

  4. Fourier convergence analysis applied to neutron diffusion Eigenvalue problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyun Chul; Noh, Jae Man; Joo, Hyung Kook

    2004-01-01

    Fourier error analysis has been a standard technique for the stability and convergence analysis of linear and nonlinear iterative methods. Though the methods can be applied to Eigenvalue problems too, all the Fourier convergence analyses have been performed only for fixed source problems and a Fourier convergence analysis for Eigenvalue problem has never been reported. Lee et al proposed new 2-D/1-D coupling methods and they showed that the new ones are unconditionally stable while one of the two existing ones is unstable at a small mesh size and that the new ones are better than the existing ones in terms of the convergence rate. In this paper the convergence of method A in reference 4 for the diffusion Eigenvalue problem was analyzed by the Fourier analysis. The Fourier convergence analysis presented in this paper is the first one applied to a neutronics eigenvalue problem to the best of our knowledge

  5. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  6. Risk assessment and food allergy: the probabilistic model applied to allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spanjersberg, M.Q.I.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Rennen, M.A.J.; Houben, G.F.

    2007-01-01

    In order to assess the risk of unintended exposure to food allergens, traditional deterministic risk assessment is usually applied, leading to inconsequential conclusions as 'an allergic reaction cannot be excluded'. TNO therefore developed a quantitative risk assessment model for allergens based on

  7. Applying programmatic risk assessment to nuclear materials stabilization R and D planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenley, C.R.; Brown-van Hoozer, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    A systems engineering approach to programmatic risk assessment, derived from the aerospace industry, was applied to various stabilization technologies to assess their relative maturity and availability for use in stabilizing nuclear materials. The assessment provided valuable information for trading off available technologies and identified the at-risk technologies that will require close tracking by the Department of Energy (DOE) to mitigate programmatic risks

  8. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  9. Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

    2018-02-01

    Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

  10. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  11. Spectral analysis and filter theory in applied geophysics

    CERN Document Server

    Buttkus, Burkhard

    2000-01-01

    This book is intended to be an introduction to the fundamentals and methods of spectral analysis and filter theory and their appli­ cations in geophysics. The principles and theoretical basis of the various methods are described, their efficiency and effectiveness eval­ uated, and instructions provided for their practical application. Be­ sides the conventional methods, newer methods arediscussed, such as the spectral analysis ofrandom processes by fitting models to the ob­ served data, maximum-entropy spectral analysis and maximum-like­ lihood spectral analysis, the Wiener and Kalman filtering methods, homomorphic deconvolution, and adaptive methods for nonstation­ ary processes. Multidimensional spectral analysis and filtering, as well as multichannel filters, are given extensive treatment. The book provides a survey of the state-of-the-art of spectral analysis and fil­ ter theory. The importance and possibilities ofspectral analysis and filter theory in geophysics for data acquisition, processing an...

  12. Animal research in the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Timothy L; Poling, Alan

    2011-01-01

    This review summarizes the 6 studies with nonhuman animal subjects that have appeared in the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis and offers suggestions for future research in this area. Two of the reviewed articles described translational research in which pigeons were used to illustrate and examine behavioral phenomena of applied significance (say-do correspondence and fluency), 3 described interventions that changed animals' behavior (self-injury by a baboon, feces throwing and spitting by a chimpanzee, and unsafe trailer entry by horses) in ways that benefited the animals and the people in charge of them, and 1 described the use of trained rats that performed a service to humans (land-mine detection). We suggest that each of these general research areas merits further attention and that the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis is an appropriate outlet for some of these publications.

  13. Applied Behavior Analysis Is a Science And, Therefore, Progressive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leaf, Justin B.; Leaf, Ronald; McEachin, John; Taubman, Mitchell; Ala'i-Rosales, Shahla; Ross, Robert K.; Smith, Tristram; Weiss, Mary Jane

    2016-01-01

    Applied behavior analysis (ABA) is a science and, therefore, involves progressive approaches and outcomes. In this commentary we argue that the spirit and the method of science should be maintained in order to avoid reductionist procedures, stifled innovation, and rote, unresponsive protocols that become increasingly removed from meaningful…

  14. X-ray fluorescence spectrometry applied to soil analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salvador, Vera Lucia Ribeiro; Sato, Ivone Mulako; Scapin Junior, Wilson Santo; Scapin, Marcos Antonio; Imakima, Kengo

    1997-01-01

    This paper studies the X-ray fluorescence spectrometry applied to the soil analysis. A comparative study of the WD-XRFS and ED-XRFS techniques was carried out by using the following soil samples: SL-1, SOIL-7 and marine sediment SD-M-2/TM, from IAEA, and clay, JG-1a from Geological Survey of Japan (GSJ)

  15. Progressive-Ratio Schedules and Applied Behavior Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poling, Alan

    2010-01-01

    Establishing appropriate relations between the basic and applied areas of behavior analysis has been of long and persistent interest to the author. In this article, the author illustrates that there is a direct relation between how hard an organism will work for access to an object or activity, as indexed by the largest ratio completed under a…

  16. B. F. Skinner's Contributions to Applied Behavior Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Edward K.; Smith, Nathaniel G.; Altus, Deborah E.

    2005-01-01

    Our paper reviews and analyzes B. F. Skinner's contributions to applied behavior analysis in order to assess his role as the field's originator and founder. We found, first, that his contributions fall into five categorizes: the style and content of his science, his interpretations of typical and atypical human behavior, the implications he drew…

  17. Applied Behavior Analysis: Current Myths in Public Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, Cheryl; Lowdermilk, John; Lanier, Lauren L.; Fannin, Abigail G.; Schkade, Jennifer L.; Rose, Chad A.; Simpson, Cynthia G.

    2013-01-01

    The effective use of behavior management strategies and related policies continues to be a debated issue in public education. Despite overwhelming evidence espousing the benefits of the implementation of procedures derived from principles based on the science of applied behavior analysis (ABA), educators often indicate many common misconceptions…

  18. Positive Behavior Support and Applied Behavior Analysis: A Familial Alliance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlap, Glen; Carr, Edward G.; Horner, Robert H.; Zarcone, Jennifer R.; Schwartz, Ilene

    2008-01-01

    Positive behavior support (PBS) emerged in the mid-1980s as an approach for understanding and addressing problem behaviors. PBS was derived primarily from applied behavior analysis (ABA). Over time, however, PBS research and practice has incorporated evaluative methods, assessment and intervention procedures, and conceptual perspectives associated…

  19. Neutron activation analysis applied to energy and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyon, W.S.

    1975-01-01

    Neutron activation analysis was applied to a number of problems concerned with energy production and the environment. Burning of fossil fuel, the search for new sources of uranium, possible presence of toxic elements in food and water, and the relationship of trace elements to cardiovascular disease are some of the problems in which neutron activation was used. (auth)

  20. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  1. A Pilot Study on Applying Risk Informed Application Option 2 to Six Systems in UCN 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kil-Yoo; Yang, Joon-Eon; Lee, Young-Joo; Chung, Hye-Won

    2007-01-01

    To reduce the unnecessary burden of a regulation, NRC prepared three options for the risk informed regulatory framework known as Option 1, Option 2 and Option 3. In Option 2, all safety related Structure, System and Components (SSCs) and non-safety related SSCs are evaluated from a safety point of view, and the low safety significant SSCs belonging to the safety related group are called 'Risk Informed Safety Class (RISC) - 3' SSCs. The 'RISC-3' SSCs can be exempted from the special treatment requirements such as a seismic and environmental requirement, of 10 CFR 50. Two years ago, a paper was published which described the Option 2 method applied to the high pressure safety injection system (HPSI) and the essential service water system (ESW) of UCN 3. However, this paper describes the results when Option 2 is applied to the other 4 systems such as a low pressure safety injection system(LPSI), safety depressurization system(SDS), instrument air system(IAS), safety injection tank(SIT). First of all, this paper includes the results from the importance analysis in view of a Fire PSA and Level 2 PSA

  2. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  3. Research in applied mathematics, numerical analysis, and computer science

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-01-01

    Research conducted at the Institute for Computer Applications in Science and Engineering (ICASE) in applied mathematics, numerical analysis, and computer science is summarized and abstracts of published reports are presented. The major categories of the ICASE research program are: (1) numerical methods, with particular emphasis on the development and analysis of basic numerical algorithms; (2) control and parameter identification; (3) computational problems in engineering and the physical sciences, particularly fluid dynamics, acoustics, and structural analysis; and (4) computer systems and software, especially vector and parallel computers.

  4. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  5. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results

  6. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  7. Applied Fourier analysis from signal processing to medical imaging

    CERN Document Server

    Olson, Tim

    2017-01-01

    The first of its kind, this focused textbook serves as a self-contained resource for teaching from scratch the fundamental mathematics of Fourier analysis and illustrating some of its most current, interesting applications, including medical imaging and radar processing. Developed by the author from extensive classroom teaching experience, it provides a breadth of theory that allows students to appreciate the utility of the subject, but at as accessible a depth as possible. With myriad applications included, this book can be adapted to a one or two semester course in Fourier Analysis or serve as the basis for independent study. Applied Fourier Analysis assumes no prior knowledge of analysis from its readers, and begins by making the transition from linear algebra to functional analysis. It goes on to cover basic Fourier series and Fourier transforms before delving into applications in sampling and interpolation theory, digital communications, radar processing, medical i maging, and heat and wave equations. Fo...

  8. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  9. Enviromentally sensitive patch index of desertification risk applied to the main habitats of Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duro, A.; Piccione, V.; Ragusa, M. A.; Rapicavoli, V.; Veneziano, V.

    2017-07-01

    The authors applied the MEDALUS - Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use - procedure to the most representative sicilian habitat by extension, socio-economic and environmental importance, in order to assess the risk of desertification. Thanks to the ESPI, Environmentally Sensitive Patch Index, in this paper the authors estimate the current and future regional levels of desertification risk.

  10. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  11. Applying DEA sensitivity analysis to efficiency measurement of Vietnamese universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thi Thanh Huyen Nguyen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The primary purpose of this study is to measure the technical efficiency of 30 doctorate-granting universities, the universities or the higher education institutes with PhD training programs, in Vietnam, applying the sensitivity analysis of data envelopment analysis (DEA. The study uses eight sets of input-output specifications using the replacement as well as aggregation/disaggregation of variables. The measurement results allow us to examine the sensitivity of the efficiency of these universities with the sets of variables. The findings also show the impact of variables on their efficiency and its “sustainability”.

  12. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  13. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  14. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  15. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  16. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wells, C

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  17. Analysis of concrete beams using applied element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincy Christy, D.; Madhavan Pillai, T. M.; Nagarajan, Praveen

    2018-03-01

    The Applied Element Method (AEM) is a displacement based method of structural analysis. Some of its features are similar to that of Finite Element Method (FEM). In AEM, the structure is analysed by dividing it into several elements similar to FEM. But, in AEM, elements are connected by springs instead of nodes as in the case of FEM. In this paper, background to AEM is discussed and necessary equations are derived. For illustrating the application of AEM, it has been used to analyse plain concrete beam of fixed support condition. The analysis is limited to the analysis of 2-dimensional structures. It was found that the number of springs has no much influence on the results. AEM could predict deflection and reactions with reasonable degree of accuracy.

  18. Apply Functional Modelling to Consequence Analysis in Supervision Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Xinxin; Lind, Morten; Gola, Giulio

    2013-01-01

    This paper will first present the purpose and goals of applying functional modelling approach to consequence analysis by adopting Multilevel Flow Modelling (MFM). MFM Models describe a complex system in multiple abstraction levels in both means-end dimension and whole-part dimension. It contains...... consequence analysis to practical or online applications in supervision systems. It will also suggest a multiagent solution as the integration architecture for developing tools to facilitate the utilization results of functional consequence analysis. Finally a prototype of the multiagent reasoning system...... causal relations between functions and goals. A rule base system can be developed to trace the causal relations and perform consequence propagations. This paper will illustrate how to use MFM for consequence reasoning by using rule base technology and describe the challenges for integrating functional...

  19. Analysis of Brick Masonry Wall using Applied Element Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincy Christy, D.; Madhavan Pillai, T. M.; Nagarajan, Praveen

    2018-03-01

    The Applied Element Method (AEM) is a versatile tool for structural analysis. Analysis is done by discretising the structure as in the case of Finite Element Method (FEM). In AEM, elements are connected by a set of normal and shear springs instead of nodes. AEM is extensively used for the analysis of brittle materials. Brick masonry wall can be effectively analyzed in the frame of AEM. The composite nature of masonry wall can be easily modelled using springs. The brick springs and mortar springs are assumed to be connected in series. The brick masonry wall is analyzed and failure load is determined for different loading cases. The results were used to find the best aspect ratio of brick to strengthen brick masonry wall.

  20. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  1. Applying programmatic risk assessment to nuclear materials stabilization R and D planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown-Van Hoozer, S.A.; Kenley, C.R.

    1997-01-01

    A systems engineering approach to programmatic risk assessment, derived from the aerospace industry, was applied to various stabilization technologies to assess their relative maturity and availability for use in stabilizing nuclear materials. The assessment provided valuable information for trading off available technologies and identified the at-risk technologies that will require close tracking by the Department of Energy (DOE) to mitigate programmatic risks. This paper presents the programmatic risk assessment methodology developed for the 1995 R and D Plan and updated for the 1996 R and D Plan. Results of the 1996 assessment also are presented (DOE/ID-10561, 1996)

  2. The possibilities of applying a risk-oriented approach to the NPP reliability and safety enhancement problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Yu. A.

    2014-10-01

    An analysis and some generalizations of approaches to risk assessments are presented. Interconnection between different interpretations of the "risk" notion is shown, and the possibility of applying the fuzzy set theory to risk assessments is demonstrated. A generalized formulation of the risk assessment notion is proposed in applying risk-oriented approaches to the problem of enhancing reliability and safety in nuclear power engineering. The solution of problems using the developed risk-oriented approaches aimed at achieving more reliable and safe operation of NPPs is described. The results of studies aimed at determining the need (advisability) to modernize/replace NPP elements and systems are presented together with the results obtained from elaborating the methodical principles of introducing the repair concept based on the equipment technical state. The possibility of reducing the scope of tests and altering the NPP systems maintenance strategy is substantiated using the risk-oriented approach. A probabilistic model for estimating the validity of boric acid concentration measurements is developed.

  3. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  4. Framework for applying probabilistic safety analysis in nuclear regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V.B.

    1997-01-01

    The traditional regulatory framework has served well to assure the protection of public health and safety. It has been recognized, however, that in a few circumstances, this deterministic framework has lead to an extensive expenditure on matters hat have little to do with the safe and reliable operation of the plant. Developments of plant-specific PSA have offered a new and powerful analytical tool in the evaluation of the safety of the plant. Using PSA insights as an aid to decision making in the regulatory process is now known as 'risk-based' or 'risk-informed' regulation. Numerous activities in the U.S. nuclear industry are focusing on applying this new approach to modify regulatory requirements. In addition, other approaches to regulations are in the developmental phase and are being evaluated. One is based on the performance monitoring and results and it is known as performance-based regulation. The other, called the blended approach, combines traditional deterministic principles with PSA insights and performance results. (author)

  5. An Effective Risk Minimization Strategy Applied to an Outdoor Music Festival: A Multi-Agency Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luther, Matt; Gardiner, Fergus; Lenson, Shane; Caldicott, David; Harris, Ryan; Sabet, Ryan; Malloy, Mark; Perkins, Jo

    2018-04-01

    Specific Event Identifiers a. Event type: Outdoor music festival. b. Event onset date: December 3, 2016. c. Location of event: Regatta Point, Commonwealth Park. d. Geographical coordinates: Canberra, Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia (-35.289002, 149.131957, 600m). e. Dates and times of observation in latitude, longitude, and elevation: December 3, 2016, 11:00-23:00. f. Response type: Event medical support. Abstract Introduction Young adult patrons are vulnerable to risk-taking behavior, including drug taking, at outdoor music festivals. Therefore, the aim of this field report is to discuss the on-site medical response during a music festival, and subsequently highlight observed strategies aimed at minimizing substance abuse harm. The observed outdoor music festival was held in Canberra (Australian Capital Territory [ACT], Australia) during the early summer of 2016, with an attendance of 23,008 patrons. First aid and on-site medical treatment data were gained from the relevant treatment area and service. The integrated first aid service provided support to 292 patients. Final analysis consisted of 286 patients' records, with 119 (41.6%) males and 167 (58.4%) females. Results from this report indicated that drug intoxication was an observed event issue, with 15 (5.1%) treated on site and 13 emergency department (ED) presentations, primarily related to trauma or medical conditions requiring further diagnostics. This report details an important public health need, which could be met by providing a coordinated approach, including a robust on-site medical service, accepting intrinsic risk-taking behavior. This may include on-site drug-checking, providing reliable information on drug content with associated education. Luther M , Gardiner F , Lenson S , Caldicott D , Harris R , Sabet R , Malloy M , Perkins J . An effective risk minimization strategy applied to an outdoor music festival: a multi-agency approach. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(2):220-224.

  6. Applying a CAD-generated imaging marker to assess short-term breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Zarafshani, Ali; Heidari, Morteza; Wang, Yunzhi; Aghaei, Faranak; Zheng, Bin

    2018-02-01

    Although whether using computer-aided detection (CAD) helps improve radiologists' performance in reading and interpreting mammograms is controversy due to higher false-positive detection rates, objective of this study is to investigate and test a new hypothesis that CAD-generated false-positives, in particular, the bilateral summation of false-positives, is a potential imaging marker associated with short-term breast cancer risk. An image dataset involving negative screening mammograms acquired from 1,044 women was retrospectively assembled. Each case involves 4 images of craniocaudal (CC) and mediolateral oblique (MLO) view of the left and right breasts. In the next subsequent mammography screening, 402 cases were positive for cancer detected and 642 remained negative. A CAD scheme was applied to process all "prior" negative mammograms. Some features from CAD scheme were extracted, which include detection seeds, the total number of false-positive regions, an average of detection scores and the sum of detection scores in CC and MLO view images. Then the features computed from two bilateral images of left and right breasts from either CC or MLO view were combined. In order to predict the likelihood of each testing case being positive in the next subsequent screening, two logistic regression models were trained and tested using a leave-one-case-out based cross-validation method. Data analysis demonstrated the maximum prediction accuracy with an area under a ROC curve of AUC=0.65+/-0.017 and the maximum adjusted odds ratio of 4.49 with a 95% confidence interval of [2.95, 6.83]. The results also illustrated an increasing trend in the adjusted odds ratio and risk prediction scores (pbreast cancer risk.

  7. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  8. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  9. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  10. Preliminary Hazard Analysis applied to Uranium Hexafluoride - UF6 production plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomzhinsky, David; Bichmacher, Ricardo; Braganca Junior, Alvaro; Peixoto, Orpet Jose

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the Preliminary hazard Analysis applied to the UF 6 Production Process, which is part of the UF 6 Conversion Plant. The Conversion Plant has designed to produce a high purified UF 6 in accordance with the nuclear grade standards. This Preliminary Hazard Analysis is the first step in the Risk Management Studies, which are under current development. The analysis evaluated the impact originated from the production process in the plant operators, members of public, equipment, systems and installations as well as the environment. (author)

  11. Applied research and development of neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Yong Sam; Moon, Jong Hwa; Kim, Sun Ha; Baek, Sung Ryel; Kim, Young Gi; Jung, Hwan Sung; Park, Kwang Won; Kang, Sang Hun; Lim, Jong Myoung

    2003-05-01

    The aims of this project are to establish the quality control system of Neutron Activation Analysis(NAA) due to increase of industrial needs for standard analytical method and to prepare and identify the standard operation procedure of NAA through practical testing for different analytical items. R and D implementations of analytical quality system using neutron irradiation facility and gamma-ray measurement system and automation of NAA facility in HANARO research reactor are as following ; 1) Establishment of NAA quality control system for the maintenance of best measurement capability and the promotion of utilization of HANARO research reactor 2) Improvement of analytical sensitivity for industrial applied technologies and establishment of certified standard procedures 3) Standardization and development of Prompt Gamma-ray Activation Analysis (PGAA) technology

  12. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  13. Automated SEM Modal Analysis Applied to the Diogenites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, L. E.; Spilde, M. N.; Papike, James J.

    1996-01-01

    Analysis of volume proportions of minerals, or modal analysis, is routinely accomplished by point counting on an optical microscope, but the process, particularly on brecciated samples such as the diogenite meteorites, is tedious and prone to error by misidentification of very small fragments, which may make up a significant volume of the sample. Precise volume percentage data can be gathered on a scanning electron microscope (SEM) utilizing digital imaging and an energy dispersive spectrometer (EDS). This form of automated phase analysis reduces error, and at the same time provides more information than could be gathered using simple point counting alone, such as particle morphology statistics and chemical analyses. We have previously studied major, minor, and trace-element chemistry of orthopyroxene from a suite of diogenites. This abstract describes the method applied to determine the modes on this same suite of meteorites and the results of that research. The modal abundances thus determined add additional information on the petrogenesis of the diogenites. In addition, low-abundance phases such as spinels were located for further analysis by this method.

  14. MODELLING AND SIMULATING RISKS IN THE TRAINING OF THE HUMAN RESOURCES BY APPLYING THE CHAOS THEORY

    OpenAIRE

    Eugen ROTARESCU

    2012-01-01

    The article approaches the modelling and simulation of risks in the training of the human resources, as well as the forecast of the degree of human resources training impacted by risks by applying the mathematical tools offered by the Chaos Theory and mathematical statistics. We will highlight that the level of knowledge, skills and abilities of the human resources from an organization are autocorrelated in time and they depend on the level of a previous moment of the training, as well as on ...

  15. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  16. Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gran, Bjorn Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development

  17. Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjorn Axel [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: bjorn.axel.gran@hrp.no; Fredriksen, Rune [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: rune.fredriksen@hrp.no; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J. [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: atoosa.p-j.thunem@hrp.no

    2007-11-15

    This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development.

  18. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  19. Proceedings of the 2006 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference: Applying Mode of Action in Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-07-01

    Biomonitoring Studies to Assess Exposure and Risk of Inorganic Arsenic: Confounding by Other Sources of Arsenic Beck , Barbara D., Ph.D., D.A.B.T., Gradient... Beck , Barbara D.; Schoen, Ari Gradient Corporation Arsenic can exist in the environment in a number of different forms, each form with its own...equipped with a mass selective detector (MSD) using a dimethylpolysiloxane (HP-1) capillary column. Deuterated 2-butoxyacetic acid (d- BAA ) was

  20. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  1. Applying Authentic Data Analysis in Learning Earth Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johan, H.; Suhandi, A.; Samsudin, A.; Wulan, A. R.

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this research was to develop earth science learning material especially earth atmosphere supported by science research with authentic data analysis to enhance reasoning through. Various earth and space science phenomenon require reasoning. This research used experimental research with one group pre test-post test design. 23 pre-service physics teacher participated in this research. Essay test was conducted to get data about reason ability. Essay test was analyzed quantitatively. Observation sheet was used to capture phenomena during learning process. The results showed that student’s reasoning ability improved from unidentified and no reasoning to evidence based reasoning and inductive/deductive rule-based reasoning. Authentic data was considered using Grid Analysis Display System (GrADS). Visualization from GrADS facilitated students to correlate the concepts and bring out real condition of nature in classroom activity. It also helped student to reason the phenomena related to earth and space science concept. It can be concluded that applying authentic data analysis in learning process can help to enhance students reasoning. This study is expected to help lecture to bring out result of geoscience research in learning process and facilitate student understand concepts.

  2. Concepts in critical thinking applied to caries risk assessment in dental education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman-Armstrong, Sandra; Warren, John J; Cunningham-Ford, Marsha A; von Bergmann, HsingChi; Johnsen, David C

    2014-06-01

    Much progress has been made in the science of caries risk assessment and ways to analyze caries risk, yet dental education has seen little movement toward the development of frameworks to guide learning and assess critical thinking in caries risk assessment. In the absence of previous proactive implementation of a learning framework that takes the knowledge of caries risk and critically applies it to the patient with the succinctness demanded in the clinical setting, the purpose of this study was to develop a model learning framework that combines the science of caries risk assessment with principles of critical thinking from the education literature. This article also describes the implementation of that model at one dental school and presents some preliminary assessment data.

  3. Applied research and development of neutron activation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Yong Sam; Moon, Jong Hwa; Kim, Sun Ha; Bak, Sung Ryel; Park, Yong Chul; Kim, Young Ki; Chung, Hwan Sung; Park, Kwang Won; Kang, Sang Hun

    2000-05-01

    This report is written for results of research and development as follows : improvement of neutron irradiation facilities, counting system and development of automation system and capsules for NAA in HANARO ; improvement of analytical procedures and establishment of analytical quality control and assurance system; applied research and development of environment, industry and human health and its standardization. For identification and standardization of analytical method, environmental biological samples and polymer are analyzed and uncertainity of measurement are estimated. Also data intercomparison and proficency test were performed. Using airborne particulate matter chosen as a environmental indicators, trace elemental concentrations of sample collected at urban and rural site are determined and then the calculation of statistics and the factor analysis are carried out for investigation of emission source. International cooperation research project was carried out for utilization of nuclear techniques.

  4. Applied research and development of neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Yong Sam; Moon, Jong Hwa; Kim, Sun Ha; Bak, Sung Ryel; Park, Yong Chul; Kim, Young Ki; Chung, Hwan Sung; Park, Kwang Won; Kang, Sang Hun

    2000-05-01

    This report is written for results of research and development as follows : improvement of neutron irradiation facilities, counting system and development of automation system and capsules for NAA in HANARO ; improvement of analytical procedures and establishment of analytical quality control and assurance system; applied research and development of environment, industry and human health and its standardization. For identification and standardization of analytical method, environmental biological samples and polymer are analyzed and uncertainity of measurement are estimated. Also data intercomparison and proficency test were performed. Using airborne particulate matter chosen as a environmental indicators, trace elemental concentrations of sample collected at urban and rural site are determined and then the calculation of statistics and the factor analysis are carried out for investigation of emission source. International cooperation research project was carried out for utilization of nuclear techniques

  5. Applying reliability centered maintenance analysis principles to inservice testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flude, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Federal regulations require nuclear power plants to use inservice test (IST) programs to ensure the operability of safety-related equipment. IST programs are based on American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code requirements. Many of these plants also use Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) to optimize system maintenance. ASME Code requirements are hard to change. The process for requesting authority to use an alternate strategy is long and expensive. The difficulties of obtaining this authority make the use of RCM method on safety-related systems not cost effective. An ASME research task force on Risk Based Inservice Testing is investigating changing the Code. The change will allow plants to apply RCM methods to the problem of maintenance strategy selection for safety-related systems. The research task force is working closely with the Codes and Standards sections to develop a process related to the RCM process. Some day plants will be able to use this process to develop more efficient and safer maintenance strategies

  6. Multi-Level Risk Assessment of a Power Plant Gas Turbine Applying ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multi-Level Risk Assessment of a Power Plant Gas Turbine Applying the Criticality Index Model. ... Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics ... This study has carefully shown and expressed a step by step computation of the severity level of the Turbine component parts, using the Criticality Index model.

  7. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  8. Analytic concepts for assessing risk as applied to human space flight

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1997-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles provide an effective framework for quantifying individual elements of risk, including the risk to astronauts and spacecraft of the radiation environment of space flight. The concept of QRA is based on a structured set of scenarios that could lead to different damage states initiated by either hardware failure, human error, or external events. In the context of a spacecraft risk assessment, radiation may be considered as an external event and analyzed in the same basic way as any other contributor to risk. It is possible to turn up the microscope on any particular contributor to risk and ask more detailed questions than might be necessary to simply assess safety. The methods of QRA allow for as much fine structure in the analysis as is desired. For the purpose of developing a basis for comprehensive risk management and considering the tendency to open-quotes fear anything nuclear,close quotes radiation risk is a prime candidate for examination beyond that necessary to answer the basic question of risk. Thus, rather than considering only the customary damage states of fatalities or loss of a spacecraft, it is suggested that the full range of damage be analyzed to quantify radiation risk. Radiation dose levels in the form of a risk curve accomplish such a result. If the risk curve is the complementary cumulative distribution function, then it answers the extended question of what is the likelihood of receiving a specific dose of radiation or greater. Such results can be converted to specific health effects as desired. Knowing the full range of the radiation risk of a space mission and the contributors to that risk provides the information necessary to take risk management actions [operational, design, scheduling of missions around solar particle events (SPE), etc.] that clearly control radiation exposure

  9. 76 FR 76215 - Privacy Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... a system of records, Risk Analysis and Management Records, State-78, pursuant to the provisions of... INFORMATION: The Department of State proposes that the new system will be ``Risk Analysis and Management.... These standard routine uses apply to State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records. POLICIES AND...

  10. Applying Conjoint Analysis to Study Attitudes of Thai Government Organisations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natee Suriyanon

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the application of choice-based conjointanalysis to analyse the attitude of Thai government organisationstowards the restriction of the contractor’s right to claimcompensation for unfavourable effects from undesirable events.The analysis reveals that the organisations want to restrict only 6out of 14 types of the claiming rights that were studied. The rightthat they want to restrict most is the right to claim for additionaldirect costs due to force majeure. They are willing to pay between0.087% - 0.210% of the total project direct cost for restricting eachtype of contractor right. The total additional cost for restrictingall six types of rights that the organisations are willing to pay is0.882%. The last section of this article applies the knowledgegained from a choice based conjoint analysis experiment to theanalysis of the standard contract of the Thai government. Theanalysis reveals three types of rights where Thai governmentorganisations are willing to forego restrictions, but the presentstandard contract does not grant such rights.

  11. Applying the reasoned action approach to understanding health protection and health risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Mark; McEachan, Rosemary; Lawton, Rebecca; Gardner, Peter

    2017-12-01

    The Reasoned Action Approach (RAA) developed out of the Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior but has not yet been widely applied to understanding health behaviors. The present research employed the RAA in a prospective design to test predictions of intention and action for groups of protection and risk behaviors separately in the same sample. To test the RAA for health protection and risk behaviors. Measures of RAA components plus past behavior were taken in relation to eight protection and six risk behaviors in 385 adults. Self-reported behavior was assessed one month later. Multi-level modelling showed instrumental attitude, experiential attitude, descriptive norms, capacity and past behavior were significant positive predictors of intentions to engage in protection or risk behaviors. Injunctive norms were only significant predictors of intention in protection behaviors. Autonomy was a significant positive predictor of intentions in protection behaviors and a negative predictor in risk behaviors (the latter relationship became non-significant when controlling for past behavior). Multi-level modelling showed that intention, capacity, and past behavior were significant positive predictors of action for both protection and risk behaviors. Experiential attitude and descriptive norm were additional significant positive predictors of risk behaviors. The RAA has utility in predicting both protection and risk health behaviors although the power of predictors may vary across these types of health behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  13. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  14. The Evidence-Based Practice of Applied Behavior Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slocum, Timothy A; Detrich, Ronnie; Wilczynski, Susan M; Spencer, Trina D; Lewis, Teri; Wolfe, Katie

    2014-05-01

    Evidence-based practice (EBP) is a model of professional decision-making in which practitioners integrate the best available evidence with client values/context and clinical expertise in order to provide services for their clients. This framework provides behavior analysts with a structure for pervasive use of the best available evidence in the complex settings in which they work. This structure recognizes the need for clear and explicit understanding of the strength of evidence supporting intervention options, the important contextual factors including client values that contribute to decision making, and the key role of clinical expertise in the conceptualization, intervention, and evaluation of cases. Opening the discussion of EBP in this journal, Smith (The Behavior Analyst, 36, 7-33, 2013) raised several key issues related to EBP and applied behavior analysis (ABA). The purpose of this paper is to respond to Smith's arguments and extend the discussion of the relevant issues. Although we support many of Smith's (The Behavior Analyst, 36, 7-33, 2013) points, we contend that Smith's definition of EBP is significantly narrower than definitions that are used in professions with long histories of EBP and that this narrowness conflicts with the principles that drive applied behavior analytic practice. We offer a definition and framework for EBP that aligns with the foundations of ABA and is consistent with well-established definitions of EBP in medicine, psychology, and other professions. In addition to supporting the systematic use of research evidence in behavior analytic decision making, this definition can promote clear communication about treatment decisions across disciplines and with important outside institutions such as insurance companies and granting agencies.

  15. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  16. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  17. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  18. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  19. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. A Study on Landslide Risk Management by Applying Fault Tree Logics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazmi Danish

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Slope stability is one of the focal areas of curiosity to geotechnical designers and also appears logical for the application of probabilistic approaches since the analysis lead to a “probability of failure”. Assessment of the existing slopes in relation with risks seems to be more meaningful when concerning with landslides. Probabilistic slope stability analysis (PSSA is the best option in covering the landslides events. The intent here is to bid a probabilistic framework for quantified risk analysis with human uncertainties. In this regard, Fault Tree Analysis is utilized and for prediction of risk levels, consequences of the failures of the reference landslides have been taken. It is concluded that logics of fault trees is best fit, to clinch additional categories of uncertainty; like human, organizational, and knowledge related. In actual, the approach has been used in bringing together engineering and management performances and personnel, to produce reliability in slope engineering practices.

  1. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  2. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  3. To apply or not to apply: a survey analysis of grant writing costs and benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Hippel, Ted; von Hippel, Courtney

    2015-01-01

    We surveyed 113 astronomers and 82 psychologists active in applying for federally funded research on their grant-writing history between January, 2009 and November, 2012. We collected demographic data, effort levels, success rates, and perceived non-financial benefits from writing grant proposals. We find that the average proposal takes 116 PI hours and 55 CI hours to write; although time spent writing was not related to whether the grant was funded. Effort did translate into success, however, as academics who wrote more grants received more funding. Participants indicated modest non-monetary benefits from grant writing, with psychologists reporting a somewhat greater benefit overall than astronomers. These perceptions of non-financial benefits were unrelated to how many grants investigators applied for, the number of grants they received, or the amount of time they devoted to writing their proposals. We also explored the number of years an investigator can afford to apply unsuccessfully for research grants and our analyses suggest that funding rates below approximately 20%, commensurate with current NIH and NSF funding, are likely to drive at least half of the active researchers away from federally funded research. We conclude with recommendations and suggestions for individual investigators and for department heads.

  4. To apply or not to apply: a survey analysis of grant writing costs and benefits.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ted von Hippel

    Full Text Available We surveyed 113 astronomers and 82 psychologists active in applying for federally funded research on their grant-writing history between January, 2009 and November, 2012. We collected demographic data, effort levels, success rates, and perceived non-financial benefits from writing grant proposals. We find that the average proposal takes 116 PI hours and 55 CI hours to write; although time spent writing was not related to whether the grant was funded. Effort did translate into success, however, as academics who wrote more grants received more funding. Participants indicated modest non-monetary benefits from grant writing, with psychologists reporting a somewhat greater benefit overall than astronomers. These perceptions of non-financial benefits were unrelated to how many grants investigators applied for, the number of grants they received, or the amount of time they devoted to writing their proposals. We also explored the number of years an investigator can afford to apply unsuccessfully for research grants and our analyses suggest that funding rates below approximately 20%, commensurate with current NIH and NSF funding, are likely to drive at least half of the active researchers away from federally funded research. We conclude with recommendations and suggestions for individual investigators and for department heads.

  5. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  6. Applied genre analysis: a multi-perspective model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijay K Bhatia

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available Genre analysis can be viewed from two different perspectives: it may be seen as a reflection of the complex realities of the world of institutionalised communication, or it may be seen as a pedagogically effective and convenient tool for the design of language teaching programmes, often situated within simulated contexts of classroom activities. This paper makes an attempt to understand and resolve the tension between these two seemingly contentious perspectives to answer the question: "Is generic description a reflection of reality, or a convenient fiction invented by applied linguists?". The paper also discusses issues related to the nature and use of linguistic description in a genre-based educational enterprise, claiming that instead of using generic descriptions as models for linguistic reproduction of conventional forms to respond to recurring social contexts, as is often the case in many communication based curriculum contexts, they can be used as analytical resource to understand and manipulate complex inter-generic and multicultural realisations of professional discourse, which will enable learners to use generic knowledge to respond to novel social contexts and also to create new forms of discourse to achieve pragmatic success as well as other powerful human agendas.

  7. SUCCESS CONCEPT ANALYSIS APPLIED TO THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY PROJECT MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cassio C. Montenegro Duarte

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the concept of success in project management that is applicable to the IT universe, from the classical theory associated with the techniques of project management. Therefore, it applies the theoretical analysis associated to the context of information technology in enterprises as well as the classic literature of traditional project management, focusing on its application in business information technology. From the literature developed in the first part of the study, four propositions were prepared for study which formed the basis for the development of the field research with three large companies that develop projects of Information Technology. The methodology used in the study predicted the development of the multiple case study. Empirical evidence suggests that the concept of success found in the classical literature in project management adjusts to the environment management of IT projects. Showed that it is possible to create the model of standard IT projects in order to replicate it in future derivatives projects, which depends on the learning acquired at the end of a long and continuous process and sponsorship of senior management, which ultimately results in its merger into the company culture.

  8. Applying importance-performance analysis to patient safety culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yii-Ching; Wu, Hsin-Hung; Hsieh, Wan-Lin; Weng, Shao-Jen; Hsieh, Liang-Po; Huang, Chih-Hsuan

    2015-01-01

    The Sexton et al.'s (2006) safety attitudes questionnaire (SAQ) has been widely used to assess staff's attitudes towards patient safety in healthcare organizations. However, to date there have been few studies that discuss the perceptions of patient safety both from hospital staff and upper management. The purpose of this paper is to improve and to develop better strategies regarding patient safety in healthcare organizations. The Chinese version of SAQ based on the Taiwan Joint Commission on Hospital Accreditation is used to evaluate the perceptions of hospital staff. The current study then lies in applying importance-performance analysis technique to identify the major strengths and weaknesses of the safety culture. The results show that teamwork climate, safety climate, job satisfaction, stress recognition and working conditions are major strengths and should be maintained in order to provide a better patient safety culture. On the contrary, perceptions of management and hospital handoffs and transitions are important weaknesses and should be improved immediately. Research limitations/implications - The research is restricted in generalizability. The assessment of hospital staff in patient safety culture is physicians and registered nurses. It would be interesting to further evaluate other staff's (e.g. technicians, pharmacists and others) opinions regarding patient safety culture in the hospital. Few studies have clearly evaluated the perceptions of healthcare organization management regarding patient safety culture. Healthcare managers enable to take more effective actions to improve the level of patient safety by investigating key characteristics (either strengths or weaknesses) that healthcare organizations should focus on.

  9. Applying multicriteria analysis for choosing the best marination for pork

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nieto VMOS

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This research aimed to choose a best marination solution using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Materials and methods. Pork meat samples were collected in a commercial slaughterhouse, and they were randomly distributed in four treatments with three different salt contents blend. Color, pH, retention of the solution, exudate and cooking loss, shear force and sensory attributes were assessed and evaluated. Multicriteria analysis using AHP was applied to the results in order to choose the best overall marination solution. Criteria used for selection were the physical and sensory characteristics of meat, and based on these criteria were classified solutions marination. Results. Results showed that the combination of the salts was the best alternative (Na2CO3+NaCl+Na5P3O10, followed by the solutions of (Na2CO3 + NaCl, and (Na5P3O10 + NaCl. Conclusions. All tested solutions with the salts used alone or in combination led to better physical and sensory attributes than the meat not marinated.

  10. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  11. Seismic risk assessment in the Mexican Nuclear Center applying the Gumbel-I distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores R, J.H.; Arguelles F, R.; Camacho L, M.E.; Urrutia F, J.

    1997-01-01

    A licensing requirement for the operation of nuclear facilities is the performance of different kinds of studies, one of which is seismic risk assessment. This study is useful for the validation of the seismic coefficient applied in the structural design of the facilities. Thus, for the construction of a pilot nuclear fuel plant at Mexico Nuclear Centre of the Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares (ININ), was necessary to make such study. The seismicity data for the period between 1912 and 1990 were used and the extreme values Gumbel-I distribution was applied to them. With this, ground acceleration seismic risk maps for recurrence periods of 1, 25 and 50 years were drawn up, showing maximum values of 1.2, 4.25, and 5.0 gales, respectively. (Author)

  12. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  13. Applying the Australian and New Zealand Risk Management Standard to Information Systems in SMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robyn Davidson

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper advocates the use of the Australia/New Zealand Risk Management Standard (SA/SNZ, 1999 in conjunction with of a modified version of Birch and McEvoy’s (1992 Structured Risk Analysis for Information Systems (SRA-IS to identify information systems security risks in SMEs. The use of Internet based commerce by SMEs exposes them to information systems security risks that they are ill equipped to recognise let alone mitigate. Unlike the identification of some business risks, identification of risks associated with information systems requires certain technical expertise. The structure of the existing information system must be understood and modelled before risks can be identified and it is acknowledged that the required technical expertise may not be present in SMEs, thus the involvement of information systems consultants may be necessary. Once the information system has been modelled little information systems expertise is required to complete the analysis, keeping consultant involvement to a minimum and maximising owner/manager involvement.

  14. Use, fate and ecological risks of antibiotics applied in tilapia cage farming in Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rico, Andreu [Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Oliveira, Rhaul [Department of Biology and CESAM, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitario de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal); McDonough, Sakchai [Aquaculture and Aquatic Resources Management, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120 (Thailand); Matser, Arrienne [Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Khatikarn, Jidapa [Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Department of Fishery Biology, Faculty of Fisheries, Kasetsart University, Chatuchak 10900, Bangkok (Thailand); Satapornvanit, Kriengkrai [Department of Fishery Biology, Faculty of Fisheries, Kasetsart University, Chatuchak 10900, Bangkok (Thailand); Nogueira, António J.A.; Soares, Amadeu M.V.M.; Domingues, Inês [Department of Biology and CESAM, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitario de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal); Van den Brink, Paul J. [Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2014-08-01

    The use, environmental fate and ecological risks of antibiotics applied in tilapia cage farming were investigated in the Tha Chin and Mun rivers in Thailand. Information on antibiotic use was collected through interviewing 29 farmers, and the concentrations of the most commonly used antibiotics, oxytetracycline (OTC) and enrofloxacin (ENR), were monitored in river water and sediment samples. Moreover, we assessed the toxicity of OTC and ENR on tropical freshwater invertebrates and performed a risk assessment for aquatic ecosystems. All interviewed tilapia farmers reported to routinely use antibiotics. Peak water concentrations for OTC and ENR were 49 and 1.6 μg/L, respectively. Antibiotics were most frequently detected in sediments with concentrations up to 6908 μg/kg d.w. for OTC, and 2339 μg/kg d.w. for ENR. The results of this study indicate insignificant short-term risks for primary producers and invertebrates, but suggest that the studied aquaculture farms constitute an important source of antibiotic pollution. - Highlights: • First study assessing the risks of antibiotics applied in freshwater tilapia cages. • Ten antibiotics were reported to be used by tilapia cage farmers in two Thai rivers. • Peak oxytetracycline and enrofloxacin concentrations were in the order of μg/L. • Antibiotic concentrations in river sediments next to cages were up to several mg/kg. • Antibiotics are not posing a short-term risk for pelagic aquatic organisms. - Antibiotics applied in tilapia cage farming in Thailand are released into surrounding aquatic ecosystems and constitute an important source of environmental pollution.

  15. Use, fate and ecological risks of antibiotics applied in tilapia cage farming in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rico, Andreu; Oliveira, Rhaul; McDonough, Sakchai; Matser, Arrienne; Khatikarn, Jidapa; Satapornvanit, Kriengkrai; Nogueira, António J.A.; Soares, Amadeu M.V.M.; Domingues, Inês; Van den Brink, Paul J.

    2014-01-01

    The use, environmental fate and ecological risks of antibiotics applied in tilapia cage farming were investigated in the Tha Chin and Mun rivers in Thailand. Information on antibiotic use was collected through interviewing 29 farmers, and the concentrations of the most commonly used antibiotics, oxytetracycline (OTC) and enrofloxacin (ENR), were monitored in river water and sediment samples. Moreover, we assessed the toxicity of OTC and ENR on tropical freshwater invertebrates and performed a risk assessment for aquatic ecosystems. All interviewed tilapia farmers reported to routinely use antibiotics. Peak water concentrations for OTC and ENR were 49 and 1.6 μg/L, respectively. Antibiotics were most frequently detected in sediments with concentrations up to 6908 μg/kg d.w. for OTC, and 2339 μg/kg d.w. for ENR. The results of this study indicate insignificant short-term risks for primary producers and invertebrates, but suggest that the studied aquaculture farms constitute an important source of antibiotic pollution. - Highlights: • First study assessing the risks of antibiotics applied in freshwater tilapia cages. • Ten antibiotics were reported to be used by tilapia cage farmers in two Thai rivers. • Peak oxytetracycline and enrofloxacin concentrations were in the order of μg/L. • Antibiotic concentrations in river sediments next to cages were up to several mg/kg. • Antibiotics are not posing a short-term risk for pelagic aquatic organisms. - Antibiotics applied in tilapia cage farming in Thailand are released into surrounding aquatic ecosystems and constitute an important source of environmental pollution

  16. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment in Occupational Settings Applied to the Airborne Human Adenovirus Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalaura Carducci

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA methodology, which has already been applied to drinking water and food safety, may also be applied to risk assessment and management at the workplace. The present study developed a preliminary QMRA model to assess microbial risk that is associated with inhaling bioaerosols that are contaminated with human adenovirus (HAdV. This model has been applied to air contamination data from different occupational settings, including wastewater systems, solid waste landfills, and toilets in healthcare settings and offices, with different exposure times. Virological monitoring showed the presence of HAdVs in all the evaluated settings, thus confirming that HAdV is widespread, but with different average concentrations of the virus. The QMRA results, based on these concentrations, showed that toilets had the highest probability of viral infection, followed by wastewater treatment plants and municipal solid waste landfills. Our QMRA approach in occupational settings is novel, and certain caveats should be considered. Nonetheless, we believe it is worthy of further discussions and investigations.

  17. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  18. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  19. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  20. Can Link Analysis Be Applied to Identify Behavioral Patterns in Train Recorder Data?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strathie, Ailsa; Walker, Guy H

    2016-03-01

    A proof-of-concept analysis was conducted to establish whether link analysis could be applied to data from on-train recorders to detect patterns of behavior that could act as leading indicators of potential safety issues. On-train data recorders capture data about driving behavior on thousands of routine journeys every day and offer a source of untapped data that could be used to offer insights into human behavior. Data from 17 journeys undertaken by six drivers on the same route over a 16-hr period were analyzed using link analysis, and four key metrics were examined: number of links, network density, diameter, and sociometric status. The results established that link analysis can be usefully applied to data captured from on-vehicle recorders. The four metrics revealed key differences in normal driver behavior. These differences have promising construct validity as leading indicators. Link analysis is one method that could be usefully applied to exploit data routinely gathered by on-vehicle data recorders. It facilitates a proactive approach to safety based on leading indicators, offers a clearer understanding of what constitutes normal driving behavior, and identifies trends at the interface of people and systems, which is currently a key area of strategic risk. These research findings have direct applications in the field of transport data monitoring. They offer a means of automatically detecting patterns in driver behavior that could act as leading indicators of problems during operation and that could be used in the proactive monitoring of driver competence, risk management, and even infrastructure design. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  1. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  2. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  3. New trends in applied harmonic analysis sparse representations, compressed sensing, and multifractal analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cabrelli, Carlos; Jaffard, Stephane; Molter, Ursula

    2016-01-01

    This volume is a selection of written notes corresponding to courses taught at the CIMPA School: "New Trends in Applied Harmonic Analysis: Sparse Representations, Compressed Sensing and Multifractal Analysis". New interactions between harmonic analysis and signal and image processing have seen striking development in the last 10 years, and several technological deadlocks have been solved through the resolution of deep theoretical problems in harmonic analysis. New Trends in Applied Harmonic Analysis focuses on two particularly active areas that are representative of such advances: multifractal analysis, and sparse representation and compressed sensing. The contributions are written by leaders in these areas, and covers both theoretical aspects and applications. This work should prove useful not only to PhD students and postdocs in mathematics and signal and image processing, but also to researchers working in related topics.

  4. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  5. RiskSOAP: Introducing and applying a methodology of risk self-awareness in road tunnel safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzimichailidou, Maria Mikela; Dokas, Ioannis M

    2016-05-01

    Complex socio-technical systems, such as road tunnels, can be designed and developed with more or less elements that can either positively or negatively affect the capability of their agents to recognise imminent threats or vulnerabilities that possibly lead to accidents. This capability is called risk Situation Awareness (SA) provision. Having as a motive the introduction of better tools for designing and developing systems that are self-aware of their vulnerabilities and react to prevent accidents and losses, this paper introduces the Risk Situation Awareness Provision (RiskSOAP) methodology to the field of road tunnel safety, as a means to measure this capability in this kind of systems. The main objective is to test the soundness and the applicability of RiskSOAP to infrastructure, which is advanced in terms of technology, human integration, and minimum number of safety requirements imposed by international bodies. RiskSOAP is applied to a specific road tunnel in Greece and the accompanying indicator is calculated twice, once for the tunnel design as defined by updated European safety standards and once for the 'as-is' tunnel composition, which complies with the necessary safety requirements, but calls for enhancing safety according to what EU and PIARC further suggest. The derived values indicate the extent to which each tunnel version is capable of comprehending its threats and vulnerabilities based on its elements. The former tunnel version seems to be more enhanced both in terms of it risk awareness capability and safety as well. Another interesting finding is that despite the advanced tunnel safety specifications, there is still room for enriching the safe design and maintenance of the road tunnel. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  7. Current status of neutron activation analysis and applied nuclear chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyon, W.S.

    1990-01-01

    A review of recent scientometric studies of citations and publication data shows the present state of NAA and applied nuclear chemistry as compared to other analytical techniques. (author) 9 refs.; 7 tabs

  8. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  9. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  10. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  11. The SOBANE strategy for the management of risk, as applied to whole-body or hand-arm vibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malchaire, J; Piette, A

    2006-06-01

    The objective was to develop a coherent set of methods to be used effectively in industry to prevent and manage the risks associated with exposure to vibration, by coordinating the progressive intervention of the workers, their management, the occupational health and safety (OHS) professionals and the experts. The methods were developed separately for the exposure to whole-body and hand-arm vibration. The SOBANE strategy of risk prevention includes four levels of intervention: level 1, Screening; level 2, Observation; level 3, Analysis and; level 4, Expertise. The methods making it possible to apply this strategy were developed for 14 types of risk factors. The article presents the methods specific to the prevention of the risks associated with the exposure to vibration. The strategy is similar to those published for the risks associated with exposure to noise, heat and musculoskeletal disorders. It explicitly recognizes the qualifications of the workers and their management with regard to the work situation and shares the principle that measuring the exposure of the workers is not necessarily the first step in order to improve these situations. It attempts to optimize the recourse to the competences of the OHS professionals and the experts, in order to come more rapidly, effectively and economically to practical control measures.

  12. Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

    2012-05-01

    A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

  13. A risk assessment tool applied to the study of shale gas resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veiguela, Miguel [Mining, Energy and Materials Engineering School, University of Oviedo (Spain); Hurtado, Antonio; Eguilior, Sonsoles; Recreo, Fernando [Environment Department, CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain); Roqueñi, Nieves [Mining, Energy and Materials Engineering School, University of Oviedo (Spain); Loredo, Jorge, E-mail: jloredo@uniovi.es [Mining, Energy and Materials Engineering School, University of Oviedo (Spain)

    2016-11-15

    The implementation of a risk assessment tool with the capacity to evaluate the risks for health, safety and the environment (HSE) from extraction of non-conventional fossil fuel resources by the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technique can be a useful tool to boost development and progress of the technology and winning public trust and acceptance of this. At the early project stages, the lack of data related the selection of non-conventional gas deposits makes it difficult the use of existing approaches to risk assessment of fluids injected into geologic formations. The qualitative risk assessment tool developed in this work is based on the approach that shale gas exploitation risk is dependent on both the geologic site and the technological aspects. It follows from the Oldenburg's ‘Screening and Ranking Framework (SRF)’ developed to evaluate potential geologic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) storage sites. These two global characteristics: (1) characteristics centered on the natural aspects of the site and (2) characteristics centered on the technological aspects of the Project, have been evaluated through user input of Property values, which define Attributes, which define the Characteristics. In order to carry out an individual evaluation of each of the characteristics and the elements of the model, the tool has been implemented in a spreadsheet. The proposed model has been applied to a site with potential for the exploitation of shale gas in Asturias (northwestern Spain) with tree different technological options to test the approach. - Highlights: • The proposed methodology is a risk assessment useful tool for shale gas projects. • The tool is addressed to the early stages of decision making processes. • The risk assessment of a site is made through a qualitative estimation. • Different weights are assigned to each specific natural and technological property. • The uncertainty associated to the current knowledge is considered.

  14. A risk assessment tool applied to the study of shale gas resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veiguela, Miguel; Hurtado, Antonio; Eguilior, Sonsoles; Recreo, Fernando; Roqueñi, Nieves; Loredo, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    The implementation of a risk assessment tool with the capacity to evaluate the risks for health, safety and the environment (HSE) from extraction of non-conventional fossil fuel resources by the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technique can be a useful tool to boost development and progress of the technology and winning public trust and acceptance of this. At the early project stages, the lack of data related the selection of non-conventional gas deposits makes it difficult the use of existing approaches to risk assessment of fluids injected into geologic formations. The qualitative risk assessment tool developed in this work is based on the approach that shale gas exploitation risk is dependent on both the geologic site and the technological aspects. It follows from the Oldenburg's ‘Screening and Ranking Framework (SRF)’ developed to evaluate potential geologic carbon dioxide (CO_2) storage sites. These two global characteristics: (1) characteristics centered on the natural aspects of the site and (2) characteristics centered on the technological aspects of the Project, have been evaluated through user input of Property values, which define Attributes, which define the Characteristics. In order to carry out an individual evaluation of each of the characteristics and the elements of the model, the tool has been implemented in a spreadsheet. The proposed model has been applied to a site with potential for the exploitation of shale gas in Asturias (northwestern Spain) with tree different technological options to test the approach. - Highlights: • The proposed methodology is a risk assessment useful tool for shale gas projects. • The tool is addressed to the early stages of decision making processes. • The risk assessment of a site is made through a qualitative estimation. • Different weights are assigned to each specific natural and technological property. • The uncertainty associated to the current knowledge is considered.

  15. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  16. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  17. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  18. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  19. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUAN LAGUARDIA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  20. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  1. Empirical modeling and data analysis for engineers and applied scientists

    CERN Document Server

    Pardo, Scott A

    2016-01-01

    This textbook teaches advanced undergraduate and first-year graduate students in Engineering and Applied Sciences to gather and analyze empirical observations (data) in order to aid in making design decisions. While science is about discovery, the primary paradigm of engineering and "applied science" is design. Scientists are in the discovery business and want, in general, to understand the natural world rather than to alter it. In contrast, engineers and applied scientists design products, processes, and solutions to problems. That said, statistics, as a discipline, is mostly oriented toward the discovery paradigm. Young engineers come out of their degree programs having taken courses such as "Statistics for Engineers and Scientists" without any clear idea as to how they can use statistical methods to help them design products or processes. Many seem to think that statistics is only useful for demonstrating that a device or process actually does what it was designed to do. Statistics courses emphasize creati...

  2. Applying thematic analysis theory to practice: a researcher's experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuckett, Anthony G

    2005-01-01

    This article describes an experience of thematic analysis. In order to answer the question 'What does analysis look like in practice?' it describes in brief how the methodology of grounded theory, the epistemology of social constructionism, and the theoretical stance of symbolic interactionism inform analysis. Additionally, analysis is examined by evidencing the systematic processes--here termed organising, coding, writing, theorising, and reading--that led the researcher to develop a final thematic schema.

  3. Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

    CERN Document Server

    Willmot, Gordon E

    2017-01-01

    This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

  4. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  5. An applied general equilibrium model for Dutch agribusiness policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peerlings, J.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis was to develop a basic static applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to analyse the effects of agricultural policy changes on Dutch agribusiness. In particular the effects on inter-industry transactions, factor demand, income, and trade are of

  6. Risk Management in Complex Construction Projects that Apply Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of the Realization Phase of the Energis Educational and Research Intelligent Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krechowicz, Maria

    2017-10-01

    Nowadays, one of the characteristic features of construction industry is an increased complexity of a growing number of projects. Almost each construction project is unique, has its project-specific purpose, its own project structural complexity, owner’s expectations, ground conditions unique to a certain location, and its own dynamics. Failure costs and costs resulting from unforeseen problems in complex construction projects are very high. Project complexity drivers pose many vulnerabilities to a successful completion of a number of projects. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were used, on the example of the realization phase of the ENERGIS teaching-laboratory building, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. This paper suggests a new approach to risk management for complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were applied. The risk management process was divided into six stages: gathering information, identification of the top, critical project risks resulting from the project complexity, construction of the fault tree for each top, critical risks, logical analysis of the fault tree, quantitative risk assessment applying fuzzy logic and development of risk response strategy. A new methodology for the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment for top, critical risks in complex construction projects was developed. Risk assessment was carried out applying Fuzzy Fault Tree analysis on the example of one top critical risk. Application of the Fuzzy sets theory to the proposed model allowed to decrease uncertainty and eliminate problems with gaining the crisp values of the basic events probability, common during expert risk assessment with the objective to give the exact risk score of each unwanted event probability.

  7. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  8. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  9. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  10. Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

  11. Filling Terrorism Gaps: VEOs, Evaluating Databases, and Applying Risk Terrain Modeling to Terrorism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagan, Ross F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-08-29

    This paper aims to address three issues: the lack of literature differentiating terrorism and violent extremist organizations (VEOs), terrorism incident databases, and the applicability of Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) to terrorism. Current open source literature and publicly available government sources do not differentiate between terrorism and VEOs; furthermore, they fail to define them. Addressing the lack of a comprehensive comparison of existing terrorism data sources, a matrix comparing a dozen terrorism databases is constructed, providing insight toward the array of data available. RTM, a method for spatial risk analysis at a micro level, has some applicability to terrorism research, particularly for studies looking at risk indicators of terrorism. Leveraging attack data from multiple databases, combined with RTM, offers one avenue for closing existing research gaps in terrorism literature.

  12. How Has Applied Behavior Analysis and Behavior Therapy Changed?: An Historical Analysis of Journals

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donohue, William; Fryling, Mitch

    2007-01-01

    Applied behavior analysis and behavior therapy are now nearly a half century old. It is interesting to ask if and how these disciplines have changed over time, particularly regarding some of their key internal controversies (e.g., role of cognitions). We examined the first five years and the 2000-2004 five year period of the "Journal of Applied…

  13. Applying risk insights in US NRC reviews of integral pressurized water reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caruso, M.A.; Hilsmeier, T.; Kevern, T.A.

    2012-01-01

    that specifically address the attribute (e.g., reliability assurance program, start-up testing program), or revision or elimination of acceptance criteria or review procedures that are not applicable to iPWRs due to design features that are fundamentally different from large light water reactor designs in operation or being licensed. The primary focus of this paper will be the process to determine which risk insights will be defined and applied in the grading process as well as the progress to date in applying the process to pre-application activities for iPWR designs. (authors)

  14. Heisenberg principle applied to the analysis of speckle interferometry fringes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciammarella, C. A.; Sciammarella, F. M.

    2003-11-01

    Optical techniques that are used to measure displacements utilize a carrier. When a load is applied the displacement field modulates the carrier. The accuracy of the information that can be recovered from the modulated carrier is limited by a number of factors. In this paper, these factors are analyzed and conclusions concerning the limitations in information recovery are illustrated with examples taken from experimental data.

  15. Concluding Essay: On Applied Linguistics and Discourse Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Robert B.

    1990-01-01

    Discusses trends and problems in regarding discourse analysis as a viable paradigm that can govern research, focusing on such issues as the wide diversity and variety of research that can be considered discourse analysis, the predominant focus on English language, research approaches, and undefined variables affecting research outcomes. (seven…

  16. Acquaintance Rape: Applying Crime Scene Analysis to the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Robert J B; Goodwill, Alasdair M; Hanson, R Karl; Dahle, Klaus-Peter

    2016-10-01

    The aim of the current study was to enhance the assessment and predictive accuracy of risk assessments for sexual offenders by utilizing detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was conducted on a sample of 247 male acquaintance rapists from Berlin (Germany) using a nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach. The age of the offenders at the time of the index offense ranged from 14 to 64 years (M = 32.3; SD = 11.4). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and pseudo-intimacy, consistent with previous CSA research on stranger rape. The construct validity of the three themes was demonstrated through correlational analyses with known sexual offending measures and criminal histories. The themes of hostility and pseudo-intimacy were significant predictors of sexual recidivism. In addition, the pseudo-intimacy theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism. The results indicate the potential utility and validity of crime scene behaviors in the applied risk assessment of sexual offenders. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingender, H.J.

    1978-01-01

    Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

  18. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  19. Practical considerations for sensitivity analysis after multiple imputation applied to epidemiological studies with incomplete data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Multiple Imputation as usually implemented assumes that data are Missing At Random (MAR), meaning that the underlying missing data mechanism, given the observed data, is independent of the unobserved data. To explore the sensitivity of the inferences to departures from the MAR assumption, we applied the method proposed by Carpenter et al. (2007). This approach aims to approximate inferences under a Missing Not At random (MNAR) mechanism by reweighting estimates obtained after multiple imputation where the weights depend on the assumed degree of departure from the MAR assumption. Methods The method is illustrated with epidemiological data from a surveillance system of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in France during the 2001–2007 period. The subpopulation studied included 4343 HCV infected patients who reported drug use. Risk factors for severe liver disease were assessed. After performing complete-case and multiple imputation analyses, we applied the sensitivity analysis to 3 risk factors of severe liver disease: past excessive alcohol consumption, HIV co-infection and infection with HCV genotype 3. Results In these data, the association between severe liver disease and HIV was underestimated, if given the observed data the chance of observing HIV status is high when this is positive. Inference for two other risk factors were robust to plausible local departures from the MAR assumption. Conclusions We have demonstrated the practical utility of, and advocate, a pragmatic widely applicable approach to exploring plausible departures from the MAR assumption post multiple imputation. We have developed guidelines for applying this approach to epidemiological studies. PMID:22681630

  20. Applying information network analysis to fire-prone landscapes: implications for community resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derric B. Jacobs

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Resilient communities promote trust, have well-developed networks, and can adapt to change. For rural communities in fire-prone landscapes, current resilience strategies may prove insufficient in light of increasing wildfire risks due to climate change. It is argued that, given the complexity of climate change, adaptations are best addressed at local levels where specific social, cultural, political, and economic conditions are matched with local risks and opportunities. Despite the importance of social networks as key attributes of community resilience, research using social network analysis on coupled human and natural systems is scarce. Furthermore, the extent to which local communities in fire-prone areas understand climate change risks, accept the likelihood of potential changes, and have the capacity to develop collaborative mitigation strategies is underexamined, yet these factors are imperative to community resiliency. We apply a social network framework to examine information networks that affect perceptions of wildfire and climate change in Central Oregon. Data were collected using a mailed questionnaire. Analysis focused on the residents' information networks that are used to gain awareness of governmental activities and measures of community social capital. A two-mode network analysis was used to uncover information exchanges. Results suggest that the general public develops perceptions about climate change based on complex social and cultural systems rather than as patrons of scientific inquiry and understanding. It appears that perceptions about climate change itself may not be the limiting factor in these communities' adaptive capacity, but rather how they perceive local risks. We provide a novel methodological approach in understanding rural community adaptation and resilience in fire-prone landscapes and offer a framework for future studies.

  1. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  2. Applying causal mediation analysis to personality disorder research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Glenn D

    2018-01-01

    This article is designed to address fundamental issues in the application of causal mediation analysis to research on personality disorders. Causal mediation analysis is used to identify mechanisms of effect by testing variables as putative links between the independent and dependent variables. As such, it would appear to have relevance to personality disorder research. It is argued that proper implementation of causal mediation analysis requires that investigators take several factors into account. These factors are discussed under 5 headings: variable selection, model specification, significance evaluation, effect size estimation, and sensitivity testing. First, care must be taken when selecting the independent, dependent, mediator, and control variables for a mediation analysis. Some variables make better mediators than others and all variables should be based on reasonably reliable indicators. Second, the mediation model needs to be properly specified. This requires that the data for the analysis be prospectively or historically ordered and possess proper causal direction. Third, it is imperative that the significance of the identified pathways be established, preferably with a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach. Fourth, effect size estimates should be computed or competing pathways compared. Finally, investigators employing the mediation method are advised to perform a sensitivity analysis. Additional topics covered in this article include parallel and serial multiple mediation designs, moderation, and the relationship between mediation and moderation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Signed directed social network analysis applied to group conflict

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Quan; Skillicorn, David; Walther, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    Real-world social networks contain relationships of multiple different types, but this richness is often ignored in graph-theoretic modelling. We show how two recently developed spectral embedding techniques, for directed graphs (relationships are asymmetric) and for signed graphs (relationships...... are both positive and negative), can be combined. This combination is particularly appropriate for intelligence, terrorism, and law enforcement applications. We illustrate by applying the novel embedding technique to datasets describing conflict in North-West Africa, and show how unusual interactions can...

  4. Applied network security monitoring collection, detection, and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Sanders, Chris

    2013-01-01

    Applied Network Security Monitoring is the essential guide to becoming an NSM analyst from the ground up. This book takes a fundamental approach to NSM, complete with dozens of real-world examples that teach you the key concepts of NSM. Network security monitoring is based on the principle that prevention eventually fails. In the current threat landscape, no matter how much you try, motivated attackers will eventually find their way into your network. At that point, it is your ability to detect and respond to that intrusion that can be the difference between a small incident and a major di

  5. Thermoeconomic analysis applied to an alternative wastewater treatment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamas, Wendell de Queiroz [University of Taubate, Post-graduate Programme in Mechanical Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sp (Brazil); Sao Paulo State University, Faculty of Engineering, Campus of Guaratingueta, Postgraduate Programme in Mechanical Engineering, Sp (Brazil); Silveira, Jose Luz; Mattos dos Reis, Luiz Octavio [Sao Paulo State University, Faculty of Engineering, Campus of Guaratingueta, Postgraduate Programme in Mechanical Engineering, Sp (Brazil); Oscare Giacaglia, Giorgio Eugenio [University of Taubate, Post-graduate Programme in Mechanical Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sp (Brazil)

    2010-10-15

    This work develops a methodology for the determination of costs associated to products generated in a small wastewater treatment station. The methodology begins with plant units identification, relating their fluid and thermodynamics features to each point indicated in its process diagram. Following, a functional diagram and a formulation are developed in exergetic basis, describing all equations for these points, which are the constraints for optimisation and are used to determine costs associated to products generated in a Small Wastewater Treatment Station - SWTS. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical system based on SWTS plants and presents consistent results when compared to values based on previous experiments and evaluations. (author)

  6. Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Ching-Tsung; Lo, Shang-Lien; Lin, Tyrone T.

    2011-01-01

    The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO 2 emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments. - Highlights: → Introducing a flexible strategic management approach for government policy making. → Developing a modified binomial real options model based on sequential compound options. → Proposing an innovative model for managing the long term policy with lead time. → Applying to evaluate the options of various scenarios of cleaner energy strategies.

  7. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  8. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  9. PRA (probabilistic risk analysis) in the nuclear sector. Quantifying human error and human malice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyes, A.G.

    1995-01-01

    Regardless of the regulatory style chosen ('command and control' or 'functional') a vital prerequisite for coherent safety regulations in the nuclear power industry is the ability to assess accident risk. In this paper we present a critical analysis of current techniques of probabilistic risk analysis applied in the industry, with particular regard to the problems of quantifying risks arising from, or exacerbated by, human risk and/or human error. (Author)

  10. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  11. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  12. Concept of spatial channel theory applied to reactor shielding analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.L.; Engle, W.W. Jr.

    1977-01-01

    The concept of channel theory is used to locate spatial regions that are important in contributing to a shielding response. The method is analogous to the channel-theory method developed for ascertaining important energy channels in cross-section analysis. The mathematical basis for the theory is shown to be the generalized reciprocity relation, and sample problems are given to exhibit and verify properties predicted by the mathematical equations. A practical example is cited from the shielding analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in which a perspective plot of channel-theory results was found useful in locating streaming paths around the reactor cavity shield

  13. Computational modeling applied to stress gradient analysis for metallic alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iglesias, Susana M.; Assis, Joaquim T. de; Monine, Vladimir I.

    2009-01-01

    Nowadays composite materials including materials reinforced by particles are the center of the researcher's attention. There are problems with the stress measurements in these materials, connected with the superficial stress gradient caused by the difference of the stress state of particles on the surface and in the matrix of the composite material. Computer simulation of diffraction profile formed by superficial layers of material allows simulate the diffraction experiment and gives the possibility to resolve the problem of stress measurements when the stress state is characterized by strong gradient. The aim of this paper is the application of computer simulation technique, initially developed for homogeneous materials, for diffraction line simulation of composite materials and alloys. Specifically we applied this technique for siluminum fabricated by powder metallurgy. (author)

  14. Performance analysis of numeric solutions applied to biokinetics of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mingatos, Danielle dos Santos; Bevilacqua, Joyce da Silva

    2013-01-01

    Biokinetics models for radionuclides applied to dosimetry problems are constantly reviewed by ICRP. The radionuclide trajectory could be represented by compartmental models, assuming constant transfer rates between compartments. A better understanding of physiological or biochemical phenomena, improve the comprehension of radionuclide behavior in the human body and, in general, more complex compartmental models are proposed, increasing the difficulty of obtaining the analytical solution for the system of first order differential equations. Even with constant transfer rates numerical solutions must be carefully implemented because of almost singular characteristic of the matrix of coefficients. In this work we compare numerical methods with different strategies for ICRP-78 models for Thorium-228 and Uranium-234. The impact of uncertainty in the parameters of the equations is also estimated for local and global truncation errors. (author)

  15. Condition Monitoring of a Process Filter Applying Wireless Vibration Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pekka KOSKELA

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel wireless vibration-based method for monitoring the degree of feed filter clogging. In process industry, these filters are applied to prevent impurities entering the process. During operation, the filters gradually become clogged, decreasing the feed flow and, in the worst case, preventing it. The cleaning of the filter should therefore be carried out predictively in order to avoid equipment damage and unnecessary process downtime. The degree of clogging is estimated by first calculating the time domain indices from low frequency accelerometer samples and then taking the median of the processed values. Nine different statistical quantities are compared based on the estimation accuracy and criteria for operating in resource-constrained environments with particular focus on energy efficiency. The initial results show that the method is able to detect the degree of clogging, and the approach may be applicable to filter clogging monitoring.

  16. Sensitivity Analysis Applied in Design of Low Energy Office Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    satisfies the design requirements and objectives. In the design of sustainable Buildings it is beneficial to identify the most important design parameters in order to develop more efficiently alternative design solutions or reach optimized design solutions. A sensitivity analysis makes it possible...

  17. Applying Skinner's Analysis of Verbal Behavior to Persons with Dementia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Mark; Baker, Jonathan C.; Sadowski, Katherine Ann

    2011-01-01

    Skinner's 1957 analysis of verbal behavior has demonstrated a fair amount of utility to teach language to children with autism and other various disorders. However, the learning of language can be forgotten, as is the case for many elderly suffering from dementia or other degenerative diseases. It appears possible that Skinner's operants may…

  18. Applying an Activity System to Online Collaborative Group Work Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hyungshin; Kang, Myunghee

    2010-01-01

    This study determines whether an activity system provides a systematic framework to analyse collaborative group work. Using an activity system as a unit of analysis, the research examined learner behaviours, conflicting factors and facilitating factors while students engaged in collaborative work via asynchronous computer-mediated communication.…

  19. Visual Analytics Applied to Image Analysis : From Segmentation to Classification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rauber, Paulo

    2017-01-01

    Image analysis is the field of study concerned with extracting information from images. This field is immensely important for commercial and scientific applications, from identifying people in photographs to recognizing diseases in medical images. The goal behind the work presented in this thesis is

  20. Applying AI tools to operational space environmental analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krajnak, Mike; Jesse, Lisa; Mucks, John

    1995-01-01

    The U.S. Air Force and National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) space environmental operations centers are facing increasingly complex challenges meeting the needs of their growing user community. These centers provide current space environmental information and short term forecasts of geomagnetic activity. Recent advances in modeling and data access have provided sophisticated tools for making accurate and timely forecasts, but have introduced new problems associated with handling and analyzing large quantities of complex data. AI (Artificial Intelligence) techniques have been considered as potential solutions to some of these problems. Fielding AI systems has proven more difficult than expected, in part because of operational constraints. Using systems which have been demonstrated successfully in the operational environment will provide a basis for a useful data fusion and analysis capability. Our approach uses a general purpose AI system already in operational use within the military intelligence community, called the Temporal Analysis System (TAS). TAS is an operational suite of tools supporting data processing, data visualization, historical analysis, situation assessment and predictive analysis. TAS includes expert system tools to analyze incoming events for indications of particular situations and predicts future activity. The expert system operates on a knowledge base of temporal patterns encoded using a knowledge representation called Temporal Transition Models (TTM's) and an event database maintained by the other TAS tools. The system also includes a robust knowledge acquisition and maintenance tool for creating TTM's using a graphical specification language. The ability to manipulate TTM's in a graphical format gives non-computer specialists an intuitive way of accessing and editing the knowledge base. To support space environmental analyses, we used TAS's ability to define domain specific event analysis abstractions. The prototype system defines

  1. CARVEDILOL POPULATION PHARMACOKINETIC ANALYSISAPPLIED VALIDATION PROCEDURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra Catić-Đorđević

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Carvedilol is a nonselective beta blocker/alpha-1 blocker, which is used for treatment of essential hypertension, chronic stable angina, unstable angina and ischemic left ventricular dysfunction. The aim of this study was to describe carvedilol population pharmacokinetic (PK analysis as well as the validation of analytical procedure, which is an important step regarding this approach. In contemporary clinical practice, population PK analysis is often more important than standard PK approach in setting a mathematical model that describes the PK parameters. Also, it includes the variables that have particular importance in the drugs pharmacokinetics such as sex, body mass, dosage, pharmaceutical form, pathophysiological state, disease associated with the organism or the presence of a specific polymorphism in the isoenzyme important for biotransformation of the drug. One of the most frequently used approach in population PK analysis is the Nonlinear Modeling of Mixed Effects - NONMEM modeling. Analytical methods used in the data collection period is of great importance for the implementation of a population PK analysis of carvedilol in order to obtain reliable data that can be useful in clinical practice. High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC analysis of carvedilol is used to confirm the identity of a drug and provide quantitative results and also to monitor the efficacy of the therapy. Analytical procedures used in other studies could not be fully implemented in our research as it was necessary to perform certain modification and validation of the method with the aim of using the obtained results for the purpose of a population pharmacokinetic analysis. Validation process is a logical terminal phase of analytical procedure development that provides applicability of the procedure itself. The goal of validation is to ensure consistency of the method and accuracy of results or to confirm the selection of analytical method for a given sample

  2. Moving beyond regression techniques in cardiovascular risk prediction: applying machine learning to address analytic challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Benjamin A; Navar, Ann Marie; Carter, Rickey E

    2017-06-14

    Risk prediction plays an important role in clinical cardiology research. Traditionally, most risk models have been based on regression models. While useful and robust, these statistical methods are limited to using a small number of predictors which operate in the same way on everyone, and uniformly throughout their range. The purpose of this review is to illustrate the use of machine-learning methods for development of risk prediction models. Typically presented as black box approaches, most machine-learning methods are aimed at solving particular challenges that arise in data analysis that are not well addressed by typical regression approaches. To illustrate these challenges, as well as how different methods can address them, we consider trying to predicting mortality after diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. We use data derived from our institution's electronic health record and abstract data on 13 regularly measured laboratory markers. We walk through different challenges that arise in modelling these data and then introduce different machine-learning approaches. Finally, we discuss general issues in the application of machine-learning methods including tuning parameters, loss functions, variable importance, and missing data. Overall, this review serves as an introduction for those working on risk modelling to approach the diffuse field of machine learning. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

  3. Diffusing wave spectroscopy applied to material analysis and process control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lloyd, Christopher James

    1997-01-01

    Diffusing Wave Spectroscopy (DWS) was studied as a method of laboratory analysis of sub-micron particles, and developed as a prospective in-line, industrial, process control sensor, capable of near real-time feedback. No sample pre-treatment was required and measurement was via a non-invasive, flexible, dip in probe. DWS relies on the concept of the diffusive migration of light, as opposed to the ballistic scatter model used in conventional dynamic light scattering. The specific requirements of the optoelectronic hardware, data analysis methods and light scattering model were studied experimentally and, where practical, theoretically resulting in a novel technique of analysis of particle suspensions and emulsions of volume fractions between 0.01 and 0.4. Operation at high concentrations made the technique oblivious to dust and contamination. A pure homodyne (autodyne) experimental arrangement described was resilient to environmental disturbances, unlike many other systems which utilise optical fibres or heterodyne operation. Pilot and subsequent prototype development led to a highly accurate method of size ranking, suitable for analysis of a wide range of suspensions and emulsions. The technique was shown to operate on real industrial samples with statistical variance as low as 0.3% with minimal software processing. Whilst the application studied was the analysis of TiO 2 suspensions, a diverse range of materials including polystyrene beads, cell pastes and industrial cutting fluid emulsions were tested. Results suggest that, whilst all sizing should be comparative to suitable standards, concentration effects may be minimised and even completely modelled-out in many applications. Adhesion to the optical probe was initially a significant problem but was minimised after the evaluation and use of suitable non stick coating materials. Unexpected behaviour in the correlation in the region of short decay times led to consideration of the effects of rotational diffusion

  4. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  5. Thermodynamic analysis applied to a food-processing plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ho, J C; Chandratilleke, T T

    1987-01-01

    Two production lines of a multi-product, food-processing plant are selected for energy auditing and analysis. Thermodynamic analysis showed that the first-law and second-law efficiencies are 81.5% and 26.1% for the instant-noodles line and 23.6% and 7.9% for the malt-beverage line. These efficiency values are dictated primarily by the major energy-consuming sub-processes of each production line. Improvements in both first-law and second-law efficiencies are possible for the plants if the use of steam for heating is replaced by gaseous or liquid fuels, the steam ejectors for creating vacuum are replaced by a mechanical pump, and employing the cooler surroundings to assist in the cooling process.

  6. Current Human Reliability Analysis Methods Applied to Computerized Procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2012-06-01

    Computerized procedures (CPs) are an emerging technology within nuclear power plant control rooms. While CPs have been implemented internationally in advanced control rooms, to date no US nuclear power plant has implemented CPs in its main control room (Fink et al., 2009). Yet, CPs are a reality of new plant builds and are an area of considerable interest to existing plants, which see advantages in terms of enhanced ease of use and easier records management by omitting the need for updating hardcopy procedures. The overall intent of this paper is to provide a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures. It is beyond the scope of this document to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper serves as a review of current HRA as it may be used for the analysis and review of computerized procedures.

  7. Environmental analysis applied to schools. Methodologies for data acquisition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andriola, L.; Ceccacci, R.

    2001-01-01

    The environment analysis is the basis of environmental management for organizations and it is considered as the first step in EMAS. It allows to identify, deal with the issues and have a clear knowledge on environmental performances of organizations. Schools can be included in the organizations. Nevertheless, the complexity of environmental issues and applicable regulations makes very difficult for a school, that wants to implement an environmental management system (EMAS, ISO 14001, etc.), to face this first step. So, it has been defined an instrument, that is easy but complete and coherent with reference standard, to let schools choose their process for elaborating the initial environmental revue. This instrument consists, essentially, in cards that, if completed, facilitate the drafting of the environmental analysis report [it

  8. Ion beam analysis techniques applied to large scale pollution studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, D D; Bailey, G; Martin, J; Garton, D; Noorman, H; Stelcer, E; Johnson, P [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Lucas Heights, NSW (Australia)

    1994-12-31

    Ion Beam Analysis (IBA) techniques are ideally suited to analyse the thousands of filter papers a year that may originate from a large scale aerosol sampling network. They are fast multi-elemental and, for the most part, non-destructive so other analytical methods such as neutron activation and ion chromatography can be performed afterwards. ANSTO in collaboration with the NSW EPA, Pacific Power and the Universities of NSW and Macquarie has established a large area fine aerosol sampling network covering nearly 80,000 square kilometres of NSW with 25 fine particle samplers. This network known as ASP was funded by the Energy Research and Development Corporation (ERDC) and commenced sampling on 1 July 1991. The cyclone sampler at each site has a 2.5 {mu}m particle diameter cut off and runs for 24 hours every Sunday and Wednesday using one Gillman 25mm diameter stretched Teflon filter for each day. These filters are ideal targets for ion beam analysis work. Currently ANSTO receives 300 filters per month from this network for analysis using its accelerator based ion beam techniques on the 3 MV Van de Graaff accelerator. One week a month of accelerator time is dedicated to this analysis. Four simultaneous accelerator based IBA techniques are used at ANSTO, to analyse for the following 24 elements: H, C, N, O, F, Na, Al, Si, P, S, Cl, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Cu, Ni, Co, Zn, Br and Pb. The IBA techniques were proved invaluable in identifying sources of fine particles and their spatial and seasonal variations accross the large area sampled by the ASP network. 3 figs.

  9. Ion beam analysis techniques applied to large scale pollution studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, D.D.; Bailey, G.; Martin, J.; Garton, D.; Noorman, H.; Stelcer, E.; Johnson, P. [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Lucas Heights, NSW (Australia)

    1993-12-31

    Ion Beam Analysis (IBA) techniques are ideally suited to analyse the thousands of filter papers a year that may originate from a large scale aerosol sampling network. They are fast multi-elemental and, for the most part, non-destructive so other analytical methods such as neutron activation and ion chromatography can be performed afterwards. ANSTO in collaboration with the NSW EPA, Pacific Power and the Universities of NSW and Macquarie has established a large area fine aerosol sampling network covering nearly 80,000 square kilometres of NSW with 25 fine particle samplers. This network known as ASP was funded by the Energy Research and Development Corporation (ERDC) and commenced sampling on 1 July 1991. The cyclone sampler at each site has a 2.5 {mu}m particle diameter cut off and runs for 24 hours every Sunday and Wednesday using one Gillman 25mm diameter stretched Teflon filter for each day. These filters are ideal targets for ion beam analysis work. Currently ANSTO receives 300 filters per month from this network for analysis using its accelerator based ion beam techniques on the 3 MV Van de Graaff accelerator. One week a month of accelerator time is dedicated to this analysis. Four simultaneous accelerator based IBA techniques are used at ANSTO, to analyse for the following 24 elements: H, C, N, O, F, Na, Al, Si, P, S, Cl, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Cu, Ni, Co, Zn, Br and Pb. The IBA techniques were proved invaluable in identifying sources of fine particles and their spatial and seasonal variations accross the large area sampled by the ASP network. 3 figs.

  10. Pair distribution function analysis applied to decahedral gold nanoparticles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakotte, H; Silkwood, C; Kiefer, B; Karpov, D; Fohtung, E; Page, K; Wang, H-W; Olds, D; Manna, S; Fullerton, E E

    2017-01-01

    The five-fold symmetry of face-centered cubic (fcc) derived nanoparticles is inconsistent with the translational symmetry of a Bravais lattice and generally explained by multiple twinning of a tetrahedral subunit about a (joint) symmetry axis, with or without structural modification to the fcc motif. Unlike in bulk materials, five-fold twinning in cubic nanoparticles is common and strongly affects their structural, chemical, and electronic properties. To test and verify theoretical approaches, it is therefore pertinent that the local structural features of such materials can be fully characterized. The small size of nanoparticles severely limits the application of traditional analysis techniques, such as Bragg diffraction. A complete description of the atomic arrangement in nanoparticles therefore requires a departure from the concept of translational symmetry, and prevents fully evaluating all the structural features experimentally. We describe how recent advances in instrumentation, together with the increasing power of computing, are shaping the development of alternative analysis methods of scattering data for nanostructures. We present the application of Debye scattering and pair distribution function (PDF) analysis towards modeling of the total scattering data for the example of decahedral gold nanoparticles. PDF measurements provide a statistical description of the pair correlations of atoms within a material, allowing one to evaluate the probability of finding two atoms within a given distance. We explored the sensitivity of existing synchrotron x-ray PDF instruments for distinguishing four different simple models for our gold nanoparticles: a multiply twinned fcc decahedron with either a single gap or multiple distributed gaps, a relaxed body-centered orthorhombic (bco) decahedron, and a hybrid decahedron. The data simulations of the models were then compared with experimental data from synchrotron x-ray total scattering. We present our experimentally

  11. The colour analysis method applied to homogeneous rocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halász Amadé

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer-aided colour analysis can facilitate cyclostratigraphic studies. Here we report on a case study involving the development of a digital colour analysis method for examination of the Boda Claystone Formation which is the most suitable in Hungary for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. Rock type colours are reddish brown or brownish red, or any shade between brown and red. The method presented here could be used to differentiate similar colours and to identify gradual transitions between these; the latter are of great importance in a cyclostratigraphic analysis of the succession. Geophysical well-logging has demonstrated the existence of characteristic cyclic units, as detected by colour and natural gamma. Based on our research, colour, natural gamma and lithology correlate well. For core Ib-4, these features reveal the presence of orderly cycles with thicknesses of roughly 0.64 to 13 metres. Once the core has been scanned, this is a time- and cost-effective method.

  12. Applying Statistical Design to Control the Risk of Over-Design with Stochastic Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Wu

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available By comparing a hard real-time system and a soft real-time system, this article elicits the risk of over-design in soft real-time system designing. To deal with this risk, a novel concept of statistical design is proposed. The statistical design is the process accurately accounting for and mitigating the effects of variation in part geometry and other environmental conditions, while at the same time optimizing a target performance factor. However, statistical design can be a very difficult and complex task when using clas-sical mathematical methods. Thus, a simulation methodology to optimize the design is proposed in order to bridge the gap between real-time analysis and optimization for robust and reliable system design.

  13. [The precautionary principle applied to blood transfusion. What is its impact on practices and risk management?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hergon, E; Moutel, G; Duchange, N; Bellier, L; Hervé, C; Rouger, P

    2004-07-01

    The precautionary principle has boomed in the French public health sector through blood transfusion. There has been, however, no perambulatory reflection on the definition, objectives, methods of application or consequences of this principle. The question of the pertinence of its application remains unanswered. This study, based on interviews with blood transfusion practitioners, aims to establish their perceptions of the precautionary principle's application in this specific field and of its consequences in terms of risk management and patients' rights. The pros and cons of this application are analysed based on these perceptions. According to our analysis, the precautionary principle seems to be born of confusion. It is seen more as a way to protect decision makers than patients and, if taken to extremes, could prejudice medical logic. Nevertheless, it also brings measures which renew and encourage evolution in transfusion risk management.

  14. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  15. A Multifactorial Analysis of Reconstruction Methods Applied After Total Gastrectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oktay Büyükaşık

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the reconstruction methods applied after total gastrectomy in terms of postoperative symptomology and nutrition. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted on 31 patients who underwent total gastrectomy due to gastric cancer in 2. Clinic of General Surgery, SSK Ankara Training Hospital. 6 different reconstruction methods were used and analyzed in terms of age, sex and postoperative complications. One from esophagus and two biopsy specimens from jejunum were taken through upper gastrointestinal endoscopy from all cases, and late period morphological and microbiological changes were examined. Postoperative weight change, dumping symptoms, reflux esophagitis, solid/liquid dysphagia, early satiety, postprandial pain, diarrhea and anorexia were assessed. Results: Of 31 patients,18 were males and 13 females; the youngest one was 33 years old, while the oldest- 69 years old. It was found that reconstruction without pouch was performed in 22 cases and with pouch in 9 cases. Early satiety, postprandial pain, dumping symptoms, diarrhea and anemia were found most commonly in cases with reconstruction without pouch. The rate of bacterial colonization of the jejunal mucosa was identical in both groups. Reflux esophagitis was most commonly seen in omega esophagojejunostomy (EJ, while the least-in Roux-en-Y, Tooley and Tanner 19 EJ. Conclusion: Reconstruction with pouch performed after total gastrectomy is still a preferable method. (The Medical Bulletin of Haseki 2010; 48:126-31

  16. Structural analysis of fuel rod applied to pressurized water reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faria, Danilo P.; Pinheiro, Andre Ricardo M.; Lotto, André A., E-mail: danilo.pinheiro@marinha.mil.br [Centro Tecnológico da Marinha em São Paulo (CTMSP), São Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The design of fuel assemblies applied to Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) has several requirements and acceptance criteria that must be attended for licensing. In the case of PWR fuel rods, an important mechanical structural requirement is to keep the radial stability when submitted to the coolant external pressure. In the framework of the Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) program new materials have been studied to replace zirconium based alloys as cladding, including iron-based alloys. In this sense, efforts have been made to evaluate the behavior of these materials under PWR conditions. The present work aims to evaluate the collapse cold pressure of a stainless steel thin-walled tube similar to that used as cladding material of fuel rods by means of the comparison of numeric data, and experimental results. As a result of the simulations, it was observed that the collapse pressure has a value intermediate value between those found by regulatory requirements and analytical calculations. The experiment was carried out for the validation of the computational model using test specimens of thin-walled tubes considering empty tube. The test specimens were sealed at both ends by means of welding. They were subjected to a high pressure device until the collapse of the tubes. Preliminary results obtained from experiments with the empty test specimens indicate that the computational model can be validated for stainless steel cladding, considering the difference between collapse pressure indicated in the regulatory document and the actual limit pressure concerning to radial instability of tubes with the studied characteristics. (author)

  17. The Strategic Analysis of Enterprise Applying the SWOT Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotsiubivska Kateryna I.

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at forming a list of the following SWOT factors: defining the main factors of influence of the external and the internal environment through an expert survey. The algorithm for conducting an expert survey has been clarified, allocating the main factors that, according to the survey results, have reached the maximum level of consensus among experts. In view of results of the survey conducted, i.e., their mathematical processing, we believe that it is appropriate to highlight the importance of such factors as the efficient management of the enterprise’s capital (including the optimization of its structure, the insufficient amount of financial resources (including the own, budget-based and foreign investment, and unpreparedness to risk on the part of managers. In the case in question, the experts agreed on the importance of the State participation in the overall development of the cultural sector in Ukraine. Prospect for further research will be formation of a SWOT matrix, which will enhance the efficiency of strategic management of financial resources of the enterprises in the cultural area, which will also provide consideration of cultural specificities, give the possibility of structuring the financial resources and allow the successful operation in the market conditions.

  18. Methodology for Applying Cyber Security Risk Evaluation from BN Model to PSA Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Jin Soo; Heo, Gyun Young [Kyung Hee University, Youngin (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Dajeon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Joongbu University, Chubu (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-08-15

    There are several advantages to use digital equipment such as cost, convenience, and availability. It is inevitable to use the digital I and C equipment replaced analog. Nuclear facilities have already started applying the digital system to I and C system. However, the nuclear facilities also have to change I and C system even though it is difficult to use digital equipment due to high level of safety, irradiation embrittlement, and cyber security. A cyber security which is one of important concerns to use digital equipment can affect the whole integrity of nuclear facilities. For instance, cyber-attack occurred to nuclear facilities such as the SQL slammer worm, stuxnet, DUQU, and flame. The regulatory authorities have published many regulatory requirement documents such as U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71, 1.152, IAEA guide NSS-17, IEEE Standard, and KINS Regulatory Guide. One of the important problem of cyber security research for nuclear facilities is difficulty to obtain the data through the penetration experiments. Therefore, we make cyber security risk evaluation model with Bayesian network (BN) for nuclear reactor protection system (RPS), which is one of the safety-critical systems to trip the reactor when the accident is happened to the facilities. BN can be used for overcoming these problems. We propose a method to apply BN cyber security model to probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, which had been used for safety assessment of system, structure and components of facility. The proposed method will be able to provide the insight of safety as well as cyber risk to the facility.

  19. Methodology for Applying Cyber Security Risk Evaluation from BN Model to PSA Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jin Soo; Heo, Gyun Young; Kang, Hyun Gook; Son, Han Seong

    2014-01-01

    There are several advantages to use digital equipment such as cost, convenience, and availability. It is inevitable to use the digital I and C equipment replaced analog. Nuclear facilities have already started applying the digital system to I and C system. However, the nuclear facilities also have to change I and C system even though it is difficult to use digital equipment due to high level of safety, irradiation embrittlement, and cyber security. A cyber security which is one of important concerns to use digital equipment can affect the whole integrity of nuclear facilities. For instance, cyber-attack occurred to nuclear facilities such as the SQL slammer worm, stuxnet, DUQU, and flame. The regulatory authorities have published many regulatory requirement documents such as U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71, 1.152, IAEA guide NSS-17, IEEE Standard, and KINS Regulatory Guide. One of the important problem of cyber security research for nuclear facilities is difficulty to obtain the data through the penetration experiments. Therefore, we make cyber security risk evaluation model with Bayesian network (BN) for nuclear reactor protection system (RPS), which is one of the safety-critical systems to trip the reactor when the accident is happened to the facilities. BN can be used for overcoming these problems. We propose a method to apply BN cyber security model to probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, which had been used for safety assessment of system, structure and components of facility. The proposed method will be able to provide the insight of safety as well as cyber risk to the facility

  20. Statistical analysis applied to safety culture self-assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macedo Soares, P.P.

    2002-01-01

    Interviews and opinion surveys are instruments used to assess the safety culture in an organization as part of the Safety Culture Enhancement Programme. Specific statistical tools are used to analyse the survey results. This paper presents an example of an opinion survey with the corresponding application of the statistical analysis and the conclusions obtained. Survey validation, Frequency statistics, Kolmogorov-Smirnov non-parametric test, Student (T-test) and ANOVA means comparison tests and LSD post-hoc multiple comparison test, are discussed. (author)

  1. Prompt gamma cold neutron activation analysis applied to biological materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossbach, M.; Hiep, N.T.

    1992-01-01

    Cold neutrons at the external neutron guide laboratory (ELLA) of the KFA Juelich are used to demonstrate their profitable application for multielement characterization of biological materials. The set-up and experimental conditions of the Prompt Gamma Cold Neutron Activation Analysis (PGCNAA) device is described in detail. Results for C, H, N, S, K, B, and Cd using synthetic standards and the 'ratio' technique for calculation are reported for several reference materials and prove the method to be reliable and complementary with respect to the elements being determined by INAA. (orig.)

  2. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    In this and previous efforts ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study focused on two tasks, the first concerned with the economics of fusion in an economy that relies heavily upon synthetic fuels, and the second concerned with the overall economic effects of pursuing soft energy technologies instead of hard technologies. This report is organized in two parts, the first entitled An Economic Analysis of Coproduction of Fusion-Electric Energy and Other Products, and the second entitled Arguments Associated with the Choice of Potential Energy Futures

  3. Artificial Neural Network methods applied to sentiment analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ebert, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Sentiment Analysis (SA) is the study of opinions and emotions that are conveyed by text. This field of study has commercial applications for example in market research (e.g., “What do customers like and dislike about a product?”) and consumer behavior (e.g., “Which book will a customer buy next when he wrote a positive review about book X?”). A private person can benefit from SA by automatic movie or restaurant recommendations, or from applications on the computer or smart phone that adapt to...

  4. Applying HAZOP analysis in assessing remote handling compatibility of ITER port plugs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duisings, L.P.M.; Til, S. van; Magielsen, A.J.; Ronden, D.M.S.; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Heemskerk, C.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We applied HAZOP analysis to assess the criticality of remote handling maintenance activities on port plugs in the ITER Hot Cell facility. ► We identified several weak points in the general upper port plug maintenance concept. ► We made clear recommendations on redesign in port plug design, operational sequence and Hot Cell equipment. ► The use of a HAZOP approach for the ECH UL port can also be applied to ITER port plugs in general. -- Abstract: This paper describes the application of a Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP) methodology in assessing the criticality of remote handling maintenance activities on port plugs in the ITER Hot Cell facility. As part of the ECHUL consortium, the remote handling team at the DIFFER Institute is developing maintenance tools and procedures for critical components of the ECH Upper launcher (UL). Based on NRG's experience with nuclear risk analysis and Hot Cell procedures, early versions of these tool concepts and maintenance procedures were subjected to a HAZOP analysis. The analysis identified several weak points in the general upper port plug maintenance concept and led to clear recommendations on redesigns in port plug design, the operational sequence and ITER Hot Cell equipment. The paper describes the HAZOP methodology and illustrates its application with specific procedures: the Steering Mirror Assembly (SMA) replacement and the exchange of the Mid Shield Optics (MSO) in the ECH UPL. A selection of recommended changes to the launcher design associated with the accessibility, maintainability and manageability of replaceable components are presented

  5. SPI Trend Analysis of New Zealand Applying the ITA Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommaso Caloiero

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A natural temporary imbalance of water availability, consisting of persistent lower-than-average or higher-than-average precipitation, can cause extreme dry and wet conditions that adversely impact agricultural yields, water resources, infrastructure, and human systems. In this study, dry and wet periods in New Zealand were expressed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. First, both the short term (3 and 6 months and the long term (12 and 24 months SPI were estimated, and then, possible trends in the SPI values were detected by means of a new graphical technique, the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA, which allows the trend identification of the low, medium, and high values of a series. Results show that, in every area currently subject to drought, an increase in this phenomenon can be expected. Specifically, the results of this paper highlight that agricultural regions on the eastern side of the South Island, as well as the north-eastern regions of the North Island, are the most consistently vulnerable areas. In fact, in these regions, the trend analysis mainly showed a general reduction in all the values of the SPI: that is, a tendency toward heavier droughts and weaker wet periods.

  6. Dynamical Systems Analysis Applied to Working Memory Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidan eGasimova

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we investigate weekly fluctuations in the working memory capacity (WMC assessed over a period of two years. We use dynamical system analysis, specifically a second order linear differential equation, to model weekly variability in WMC in a sample of 112 9th graders. In our longitudinal data we use a B-spline imputation method to deal with missing data. The results show a significant negative frequency parameter in the data, indicating a cyclical pattern in weekly memory updating performance across time. We use a multilevel modeling approach to capture individual differences in model parameters and find that a higher initial performance level and a slower improvement at the MU task is associated with a slower frequency of oscillation. Additionally, we conduct a simulation study examining the analysis procedure’s performance using different numbers of B-spline knots and values of time delay embedding dimensions. Results show that the number of knots in the B-spline imputation influence accuracy more than the number of embedding dimensions.

  7. Confirmatory factor analysis applied to the Force Concept Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Philip; Willoughby, Shannon D.

    2018-06-01

    In 1995, Huffman and Heller used exploratory factor analysis to draw into question the factors of the Force Concept Inventory (FCI). Since then several papers have been published examining the factors of the FCI on larger sets of student responses and understandable factors were extracted as a result. However, none of these proposed factor models have been verified to not be unique to their original sample through the use of independent sets of data. This paper seeks to confirm the factor models proposed by Scott et al. in 2012, and Hestenes et al. in 1992, as well as another expert model proposed within this study through the use of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and a sample of 20 822 postinstruction student responses to the FCI. Upon application of CFA using the full sample, all three models were found to fit the data with acceptable global fit statistics. However, when CFA was performed using these models on smaller sample sizes the models proposed by Scott et al. and Eaton and Willoughby were found to be far more stable than the model proposed by Hestenes et al. The goodness of fit of these models to the data suggests that the FCI can be scored on factors that are not unique to a single class. These scores could then be used to comment on how instruction methods effect the performance of students along a single factor and more in-depth analyses of curriculum changes may be possible as a result.

  8. Multivariate calibration applied to the quantitative analysis of infrared spectra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haaland, D.M.

    1991-01-01

    Multivariate calibration methods are very useful for improving the precision, accuracy, and reliability of quantitative spectral analyses. Spectroscopists can more effectively use these sophisticated statistical tools if they have a qualitative understanding of the techniques involved. A qualitative picture of the factor analysis multivariate calibration methods of partial least squares (PLS) and principal component regression (PCR) is presented using infrared calibrations based upon spectra of phosphosilicate glass thin films on silicon wafers. Comparisons of the relative prediction abilities of four different multivariate calibration methods are given based on Monte Carlo simulations of spectral calibration and prediction data. The success of multivariate spectral calibrations is demonstrated for several quantitative infrared studies. The infrared absorption and emission spectra of thin-film dielectrics used in the manufacture of microelectronic devices demonstrate rapid, nondestructive at-line and in-situ analyses using PLS calibrations. Finally, the application of multivariate spectral calibrations to reagentless analysis of blood is presented. We have found that the determination of glucose in whole blood taken from diabetics can be precisely monitored from the PLS calibration of either mind- or near-infrared spectra of the blood. Progress toward the non-invasive determination of glucose levels in diabetics is an ultimate goal of this research. 13 refs., 4 figs.

  9. Principles of Micellar Electrokinetic Capillary Chromatography Applied in Pharmaceutical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Árpád Gyéresi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Since its introduction capillary electrophoresis has shown great potential in areas where electrophoretic techniques have rarely been used before, including here the analysis of pharmaceutical substances. The large majority of pharmaceutical substances are neutral from electrophoretic point of view, consequently separations by the classic capillary zone electrophoresis; where separation is based on the differences between the own electrophoretic mobilities of the analytes; are hard to achieve. Micellar electrokinetic capillary chromatography, a hybrid method that combines chromatographic and electrophoretic separation principles, extends the applicability of capillary electrophoretic methods to neutral analytes. In micellar electrokinetic capillary chromatography, surfactants are added to the buffer solution in concentration above their critical micellar concentrations, consequently micelles are formed; micelles that undergo electrophoretic migration like any other charged particle. The separation is based on the differential partitioning of an analyte between the two-phase system: the mobile aqueous phase and micellar pseudostationary phase. The present paper aims to summarize the basic aspects regarding separation principles and practical applications of micellar electrokinetic capillary chromatography, with particular attention to those relevant in pharmaceutical analysis.

  10. Development and Validation of Methods for Applying Pharmacokinetic Data in Risk Assessment. Volume 2. Trichloroethylene

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-12-01

    related to presumed mechanisms of TCE-induced liver tumors, especially as they relate to peroxisome proliferation. lFishe-, J., Cargas , M., Allen, B., et...Risk Analysis, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Prepared under Contract No. DE -ACO5-94)R21O0 for the U.S. Department of Energy...Dekant et al., 1989). In the liver DCVC may be acetylated to form N-Ac-DCVC which can then be transported back to the kidney where it may be excreted in

  11. From aviation to medicine: applying concepts of aviation safety to risk management in ambulatory care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilf-Miron, R; Lewenhoff, I; Benyamini, Z; Aviram, A

    2003-02-01

    The development of a medical risk management programme based on the aviation safety approach and its implementation in a large ambulatory healthcare organisation is described. The following key safety principles were applied: (1). errors inevitably occur and usually derive from faulty system design, not from negligence; (2). accident prevention should be an ongoing process based on open and full reporting; (3). major accidents are only the "tip of the iceberg" of processes that indicate possibilities for organisational learning. Reporting physicians were granted immunity, which encouraged open reporting of errors. A telephone "hotline" served the medical staff for direct reporting and receipt of emotional support and medical guidance. Any adverse event which had learning potential was debriefed, while focusing on the human cause of error within a systemic context. Specific recommendations were formulated to rectify processes conducive to error when failures were identified. During the first 5 years of implementation, the aviation safety concept and tools were successfully adapted to ambulatory care, fostering a culture of greater concern for patient safety through risk management while providing support to the medical staff.

  12. From aviation to medicine: applying concepts of aviation safety to risk management in ambulatory care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilf-Miron, R; Lewenhoff, I; Benyamini, Z; Aviram, A

    2003-01-01

    

 The development of a medical risk management programme based on the aviation safety approach and its implementation in a large ambulatory healthcare organisation is described. The following key safety principles were applied: (1) errors inevitably occur and usually derive from faulty system design, not from negligence; (2) accident prevention should be an ongoing process based on open and full reporting; (3) major accidents are only the "tip of the iceberg" of processes that indicate possibilities for organisational learning. Reporting physicians were granted immunity, which encouraged open reporting of errors. A telephone "hotline" served the medical staff for direct reporting and receipt of emotional support and medical guidance. Any adverse event which had learning potential was debriefed, while focusing on the human cause of error within a systemic context. Specific recommendations were formulated to rectify processes conducive to error when failures were identified. During the first 5 years of implementation, the aviation safety concept and tools were successfully adapted to ambulatory care, fostering a culture of greater concern for patient safety through risk management while providing support to the medical staff. PMID:12571343

  13. A Pilot Study on Applying Risk Informed Application Option 2 to Two Systems in UCN 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kil Yoo; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon

    2005-01-01

    To reduce the unnecessary burden of a regulation, NRC prepared three options for the risk informed regulatory framework known as Option 1, Option 2 and Option 3. In Option 2, all safety related Structure, System and Components (SSCs) and non-safety related SSCs are evaluated from a safety point of view, and the low safety significant SSCs belonging to the safety related group are called 'Risk Informed Safety Class (RISC) - 3' SSCs. The 'RISC-3' SSCs can be exempted from the special treatment requirements such as a seismic and environmental requirement, of 10 CFR 50. For Option 2, 10 CFR 50.69 was issued by US NRC, and NEI 00-04 was prepared by US industry as a categorization guideline for 10 CFR 50.69, and US NRC endorsed the NEI 00-04 methodology for Option 2 in Reg. Guide 1.201. This paper describes the Option 2 method applied to the high pressure safety injection system (HPSI) and the essential service water system (ESW) of UCN 3

  14. Adding value in oil and gas by applying decision analysis methodologies: case history

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marot, Nicolas [Petro Andina Resources Inc., Alberta (Canada); Francese, Gaston [Tandem Decision Solutions, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2008-07-01

    Petro Andina Resources Ltd. together with Tandem Decision Solutions developed a strategic long range plan applying decision analysis methodology. The objective was to build a robust and fully integrated strategic plan that accomplishes company growth goals to set the strategic directions for the long range. The stochastic methodology and the Integrated Decision Management (IDM{sup TM}) staged approach allowed the company to visualize the associated value and risk of the different strategies while achieving organizational alignment, clarity of action and confidence in the path forward. A decision team involving jointly PAR representatives and Tandem consultants was established to carry out this four month project. Discovery and framing sessions allow the team to disrupt the status quo, discuss near and far reaching ideas and gather the building blocks from which creative strategic alternatives were developed. A comprehensive stochastic valuation model was developed to assess the potential value of each strategy applying simulation tools, sensitivity analysis tools and contingency planning techniques. Final insights and results have been used to populate the final strategic plan presented to the company board providing confidence to the team, assuring that the work embodies the best available ideas, data and expertise, and that the proposed strategy was ready to be elaborated into an optimized course of action. (author)

  15. Methodology for risk assessment and reliability applied for pipeline engineering design and industrial valves operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silveira, Dierci [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Volta Redonda, RJ (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Industrial e Metalurgia. Lab. de Sistemas de Producao e Petroleo e Gas], e-mail: dsilveira@metal.eeimvr.uff.br; Batista, Fabiano [CICERO, Rio das Ostras, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Two kinds of situations may be distinguished for estimating the operating reliability when maneuvering industrial valves and the probability of undesired events in pipelines and industrial plants: situations in which the risk is identified in repetitive cycles of operations and situations in which there is a permanent hazard due to project configurations introduced by decisions during the engineering design definition stage. The estimation of reliability based on the influence of design options requires the choice of a numerical index, which may include a composite of human operating parameters based on biomechanics and ergonomics data. We first consider the design conditions under which the plant or pipeline operator reliability concepts can be applied when operating industrial valves, and then describe in details the ergonomics and biomechanics risks that would lend itself to engineering design database development and human reliability modeling and assessment. This engineering design database development and reliability modeling is based on a group of engineering design and biomechanics parameters likely to lead to over-exertion forces and working postures, which are themselves associated with the functioning of a particular plant or pipeline. This approach to construct based on ergonomics and biomechanics for a more common industrial valve positioning in the plant layout is proposed through the development of a methodology to assess physical efforts and operator reach, combining various elementary operations situations. These procedures can be combined with the genetic algorithm modeling and four elements of the man-machine systems: the individual, the task, the machinery and the environment. The proposed methodology should be viewed not as competing to traditional reliability and risk assessment bur rather as complementary, since it provides parameters related to physical efforts values for valves operation and workspace design and usability. (author)

  16. Two-dimensional DFA scaling analysis applied to encrypted images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Olmos, C.; Murguía, J. S.; Ramírez-Torres, M. T.; Mejía Carlos, M.; Rosu, H. C.; González-Aguilar, H.

    2015-01-01

    The technique of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) has been widely used to unveil scaling properties of many different signals. In this paper, we determine scaling properties in the encrypted images by means of a two-dimensional DFA approach. To carry out the image encryption, we use an enhanced cryptosystem based on a rule-90 cellular automaton and we compare the results obtained with its unmodified version and the encryption system AES. The numerical results show that the encrypted images present a persistent behavior which is close to that of the 1/f-noise. These results point to the possibility that the DFA scaling exponent can be used to measure the quality of the encrypted image content.

  17. Neutron activation analysis applied to nutritional and foodstuff studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maihara, Vera A.; Santos, Paola S.; Moura, Patricia L.C.; Castro, Lilian P. de; Avegliano, Roseane P.

    2009-01-01

    Neutron Activation Analysis, NAA, has been successfully used on a regularly basis in several areas of nutrition and foodstuffs. NAA has become an important and useful research tool due to the methodology's advantages. These include high accuracy, small quantities of samples and no chemical treatment. This technique allows the determination of important elements directly related to human health. NAA also provides data concerning essential and toxic concentrations in foodstuffs and specific diets. In this paper some studies in the area of nutrition which have been carried out at the Neutron Activation Laboratory of IPEN/CNEN-SP will be presented: a Brazilian total diet study: nutritional element dietary intakes of Sao Paulo state population; a study of trace element in maternal milk and the determination of essential trace elements in some edible mushrooms. (author)

  18. Applying importance-performance analysis to evaluate banking service quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Luís Policani Freitas

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In an increasingly competitive market, the identification of the most important aspects and the measurement of service quality as perceived by the customers are important actions taken by organizations which seek the competitive advantage. In particular, this scenario is typical of Brazilian banking sector. In this context, this article presents an exploratory case study in which the Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA was used to identify the strong and the weak points related to services provided by a bank. In order to check the reliability of the questionnaire, Cronbach's alpha and correlation analyses were used. The results are presented and some actions have been defined in order to improve the quality of services.

  19. Painleve singularity analysis applied to charged particle dynamics during reconnection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, J.W.

    1992-01-01

    For a plasma in the collisionless regime, test-particle modelling can lend some insight into the macroscopic behavior of the plasma, e.g. conductivity and heating. A common example for which this technique is used is a system with electric and magnetic fields given by B = δyx + zy + yz and E = εz, where δ, γ, and ε are constant parameters. This model can be used to model plasma behavior near neutral lines, (γ = 0), as well as current sheets (γ = 0, δ = 0). The integrability properties of the particle motion in such fields might affect the plasma's macroscopic behavior, and the author has asked the question open-quotes For what values of δ, γ, and ε is the system integrable?close quotes To answer this question, the author has employed Painleve singularity analysis, which is an examination of the singularity properties of a test particle's equations of motion in the complex time plane. This analysis has identified two field geometries for which the system's particle dynamics are integrable in terms of the second Painleve transcendent: the circular O-line case and the case of the neutral sheet configuration. These geometries yield particle dynamics that are integrable in the Liouville sense (i.e., there exist the proper number of integrals in involution) in an extended phase space which includes the time as a canonical coordinate, and this property is also true for nonzero γ. The singularity property tests also identified a large, dense set of X-line and O-line field geometries that yield dynamics that may possess the weak Painleve property. In the case of the X-line geometries, this result shows little relevance to the physical nature of the system, but the existence of a dense set of elliptical O-line geometries with this property may be related to the fact that for ε positive, one can construct asymptotic solutions in the limit t → ∞

  20. Economic analysis of medical management applied for left colostomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savlovschi, C; Serban, D; Andreescu, Cv; Dascalu, Am; Pantu, H

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of surgical treatment costs for left colostomy, aiming to calculate a medium cost per procedure and to identify the means to maximize the economic management of this type of surgicale procedure. A retrospective study was conducted on a group of 8 patients hospitalized in the 4th Surgery Department,Emergency University Hospital Bucharest, during the year 2012 for left colic neoplasms with obstruction signs that were operated on with a left colostomy. The followed parameters in the studied group of patients were represented by medical expenses, divided in: preoperative, intra-operative and immediate postoperative (postop. hospitalization). Two major types of colostomy were performed: left loop colostomy with intact tumour for 6 patients and left end colostomy and tumour resection (Hartmann's procedure) for 2 patients. The medium cost of this type of surgical intervention was 4396.807 RON, representing 1068.742 euro. Statistic data analysis didn't reveal average costs to vary with the type of procedure. The age of the study subjects was between 49 and 88, with an average of 61 years, without it being possible to establish a correlation between patient age and the level of medical spendings. Reducing the costs involved by left colostomy can be efficiently done by decreasing the number of days of hospitalisation in the following ways: preoperative preparation and assessment of the subject in an outpatient regimen; the accuracy of the surgical procedure with the decrease of early postoperative complications and antibiotherapy- the second major cause of increased postoperative costs. Celsius.

  1. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  2. An Inverse Kinematic Approach Using Groebner Basis Theory Applied to Gait Cycle Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    AN INVERSE KINEMATIC APPROACH USING GROEBNER BASIS THEORY APPLIED TO GAIT CYCLE ANALYSIS THESIS Anum Barki AFIT-ENP-13-M-02 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR...copyright protection in the United States. AFIT-ENP-13-M-02 AN INVERSE KINEMATIC APPROACH USING GROEBNER BASIS THEORY APPLIED TO GAIT CYCLE ANALYSIS THESIS...APPROACH USING GROEBNER BASIS THEORY APPLIED TO GAIT CYCLE ANALYSIS Anum Barki, BS Approved: Dr. Ronald F. Tuttle (Chairman) Date Dr. Kimberly Kendricks

  3. Safety, reliability, risk management and human factors: an integrated engineering approach applied to nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Silva, Eliane Magalhaes Pereira da; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da; Reis, Sergio Carneiro dos [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)], e-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, e-mail: silvaem@cdtn.br, e-mail: aclc@cdtn.br, e-mail: reissc@cdtn.br

    2009-07-01

    Nuclear energy has an important engineering legacy to share with the conventional industry. Much of the development of the tools related to safety, reliability, risk management, and human factors are associated with nuclear plant processes, mainly because the public concern about nuclear power generation. Despite the close association between these subjects, there are some important different approaches. The reliability engineering approach uses several techniques to minimize the component failures that cause the failure of the complex systems. These techniques include, for instance, redundancy, diversity, standby sparing, safety factors, and reliability centered maintenance. On the other hand system safety is primarily concerned with hazard management, that is, the identification, evaluation and control of hazards. Rather than just look at failure rates or engineering strengths, system safety would examine the interactions among system components. The events that cause accidents may be complex combinations of component failures, faulty maintenance, design errors, human actions, or actuation of instrumentation and control. Then, system safety deals with a broader spectrum of risk management, including: ergonomics, legal requirements, quality control, public acceptance, political considerations, and many other non-technical influences. Taking care of these subjects individually can compromise the completeness of the analysis and the measures associated with both risk reduction, and safety and reliability increasing. Analyzing together the engineering systems and controls of a nuclear facility, their management systems and operational procedures, and the human factors engineering, many benefits can be realized. This paper proposes an integration of these issues based on the application of systems theory. (author)

  4. Safety, reliability, risk management and human factors: an integrated engineering approach applied to nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Silva, Eliane Magalhaes Pereira da; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da; Reis, Sergio Carneiro dos

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy has an important engineering legacy to share with the conventional industry. Much of the development of the tools related to safety, reliability, risk management, and human factors are associated with nuclear plant processes, mainly because the public concern about nuclear power generation. Despite the close association between these subjects, there are some important different approaches. The reliability engineering approach uses several techniques to minimize the component failures that cause the failure of the complex systems. These techniques include, for instance, redundancy, diversity, standby sparing, safety factors, and reliability centered maintenance. On the other hand system safety is primarily concerned with hazard management, that is, the identification, evaluation and control of hazards. Rather than just look at failure rates or engineering strengths, system safety would examine the interactions among system components. The events that cause accidents may be complex combinations of component failures, faulty maintenance, design errors, human actions, or actuation of instrumentation and control. Then, system safety deals with a broader spectrum of risk management, including: ergonomics, legal requirements, quality control, public acceptance, political considerations, and many other non-technical influences. Taking care of these subjects individually can compromise the completeness of the analysis and the measures associated with both risk reduction, and safety and reliability increasing. Analyzing together the engineering systems and controls of a nuclear facility, their management systems and operational procedures, and the human factors engineering, many benefits can be realized. This paper proposes an integration of these issues based on the application of systems theory. (author)

  5. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  6. Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-06-01

    This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

  7. Perturbation Method of Analysis Applied to Substitution Measurements of Buckling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Persson, Rolf

    1966-11-15

    Calculations with two-group perturbation theory on substitution experiments with homogenized regions show that a condensation of the results into a one-group formula is possible, provided that a transition region is introduced in a proper way. In heterogeneous cores the transition region comes in as a consequence of a new cell concept. By making use of progressive substitutions the properties of the transition region can be regarded as fitting parameters in the evaluation procedure. The thickness of the region is approximately equal to the sum of 1/(1/{tau} + 1/L{sup 2}){sup 1/2} for the test and reference regions. Consequently a region where L{sup 2} >> {tau}, e.g. D{sub 2}O, contributes with {radical}{tau} to the thickness. In cores where {tau} >> L{sup 2} , e.g. H{sub 2}O assemblies, the thickness of the transition region is determined by L. Experiments on rod lattices in D{sub 2}O and on test regions of D{sub 2}O alone (where B{sup 2} = - 1/L{sup 2} ) are analysed. The lattice measurements, where the pitches differed by a factor of {radical}2, gave excellent results, whereas the determination of the diffusion length in D{sub 2}O by this method was not quite successful. Even regions containing only one test element can be used in a meaningful way in the analysis.

  8. Soft tissue cephalometric analysis applied to Himachali ethnic population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isha Aggarwal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The modern society considers facial attractiveness as an important physical attribute. The great variance in soft tissue drape of the human face complicates accurate assessment of the soft tissue profile, and it is a known fact that facial features of different ethnic groups differ significantly. This study was undertaken to establish norms for Himachali ethnic population. Materials and Methods: The sample comprised lateral cephalograms taken in natural head position of 100 normal individuals (50 males, 50 females. The cephalograms were analyzed by Arnett soft tissue cephalometric analysis for orthodontic diagnosis and treatment planning. Student's t-test was used to compare the means of the two groups. Results: Statistically significant differences were found between Himachali males and females in certain key parameters. Males have thicker soft tissue structures and a more acute nasolabial angle than females. Males have longer faces and females have greater interlabial gap and maxillary incisor exposure. Males have more deep-set facial structures than females. Conclusions: Statistically significant differences were found between Himachali males and females in certain key parameters. Differences were also noted between other ethnic groups and Himachali faces.

  9. MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS APPLIED TO LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Madruga de Brito

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of a multi-criteria analysis (MCA tool for landslide susceptibility assessment in Porto Alegre municipality, southern Brazil. A knowledge driven approach was used, aiming to ensure an optimal use of the available information. The landslide conditioning factors considered were slope, lithology, flow accumulation and distance from lineaments. Standardization of these factors was done through fuzzy membership functions, and evaluation of their relative importance for landslide predisposition was supported by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP, based on local expert knowledge. Finally, factors were integrated in a GIS environment using the weighted linear combination (WLC method. For validation, an inventory, including 107 landslide points recorded between 2007 and 2013 was used. Results indicated that 8.2% (39.40 km² of the study area are highly and very highly susceptible to landslides. An overall accuracy of 95% was found, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve of 0.960. Therefore, the resulting map can be regarded as useful for monitoring landslide-prone areas. Based on the findings, it is concluded that the proposed method is effective for susceptibility assessment since it yielded meaningful results and does not require extensive input data.

  10. Applying Hierarchical Task Analysis Method to Discovery Layer Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlen Promann

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Libraries are implementing discovery layers to offer better user experiences. While usability tests have been helpful in evaluating the success or failure of implementing discovery layers in the library context, the focus has remained on its relative interface benefits over the traditional federated search. The informal site- and context specific usability tests have offered little to test the rigor of the discovery layers against the user goals, motivations and workflow they have been designed to support. This study proposes hierarchical task analysis (HTA as an important complementary evaluation method to usability testing of discovery layers. Relevant literature is reviewed for the discovery layers and the HTA method. As no previous application of HTA to the evaluation of discovery layers was found, this paper presents the application of HTA as an expert based and workflow centered (e.g. retrieving a relevant book or a journal article method to evaluating discovery layers. Purdue University’s Primo by Ex Libris was used to map eleven use cases as HTA charts. Nielsen’s Goal Composition theory was used as an analytical framework to evaluate the goal carts from two perspectives: a users’ physical interactions (i.e. clicks, and b user’s cognitive steps (i.e. decision points for what to do next. A brief comparison of HTA and usability test findings is offered as a way of conclusion.

  11. Applied and computational harmonic analysis on graphs and networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irion, Jeff; Saito, Naoki

    2015-09-01

    In recent years, the advent of new sensor technologies and social network infrastructure has provided huge opportunities and challenges for analyzing data recorded on such networks. In the case of data on regular lattices, computational harmonic analysis tools such as the Fourier and wavelet transforms have well-developed theories and proven track records of success. It is therefore quite important to extend such tools from the classical setting of regular lattices to the more general setting of graphs and networks. In this article, we first review basics of graph Laplacian matrices, whose eigenpairs are often interpreted as the frequencies and the Fourier basis vectors on a given graph. We point out, however, that such an interpretation is misleading unless the underlying graph is either an unweighted path or cycle. We then discuss our recent effort of constructing multiscale basis dictionaries on a graph, including the Hierarchical Graph Laplacian Eigenbasis Dictionary and the Generalized Haar-Walsh Wavelet Packet Dictionary, which are viewed as generalizations of the classical hierarchical block DCTs and the Haar-Walsh wavelet packets, respectively, to the graph setting. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our dictionaries by using them to simultaneously segment and denoise 1-D noisy signals sampled on regular lattices, a problem where classical tools have difficulty.

  12. Applying revised gap analysis model in measuring hotel service quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yu-Cheng; Wang, Yu-Che; Chien, Chih-Hung; Wu, Chia-Huei; Lu, Shu-Chiung; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Dong, Weiwei

    2016-01-01

    With the number of tourists coming to Taiwan growing by 10-20 % since 2010, the number has increased due to an increasing number of foreign tourists, particularly after deregulation allowed admitting tourist groups, followed later on by foreign individual tourists, from mainland China. The purpose of this study is to propose a revised gap model to evaluate and improve service quality in Taiwanese hotel industry. Thus, service quality could be clearly measured through gap analysis, which was more effective for offering direction in developing and improving service quality. The HOLSERV instrument was used to identify and analyze service gaps from the perceptions of internal and external customers. The sample for this study included three main categories of respondents: tourists, employees, and managers. The results show that five gaps influenced tourists' evaluations of service quality. In particular, the study revealed that Gap 1 (management perceptions vs. customer expectations) and Gap 9 (service provider perceptions of management perceptions vs. service delivery) were more critical than the others in affecting perceived service quality, making service delivery the main area of improvement. This study contributes toward an evaluation of the service quality of the Taiwanese hotel industry from the perspectives of customers, service providers, and managers, which is considerably valuable for hotel managers. It was the aim of this study to explore all of these together in order to better understand the possible gaps in the hotel industry in Taiwan.

  13. Applying the Heuristic to the Risk Assessment within the Automotive Industry Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marasova Daniela

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Risk management facilitates risk identification, evaluation, control, and by means of appropriate set of measures, risk reduction or complete elimination. Therefore, the risk management becomes a strategic factor for a company’s success. Properly implemented risk management system does not represent a tool to avoid the risk; it is used to understand the risk and provide the bases for strategic decision-making.

  14. Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

    2017-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

  15. Pharmacokinetics for regulatory risk analysis: the case of trichloroethylene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogen, K T

    1988-12-01

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models describing the uptake, metabolism, and excretion of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are now proposed for use in regulatory health-risk assessment. A steady-state analysis of one such model is shown to provide simple, convenient predicted relationships between an applied dose and the corresponding toxicologically effective, metabolized dose for certain VOCs like trichloroethylene (TCE). A version of this PBPK model was fit to data on human metabolism of TCE to urinary metabolites in chronically exposed workers, yielding a direct estimate of PBPK parameters governing human capacity to metabolize TCE. It is shown that this estimate is consistent with others based on experimental studies of TCE metabolism in humans exposed to TCE by inhalation for short periods. These results are applied to human cancer-risk assessment using rodent bioassay data on TCE-induced tumorigenesis.

  16. Statistical analysis and Kalman filtering applied to nuclear materials accountancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Annibal, P.S.

    1990-08-01

    Much theoretical research has been carried out on the development of statistical methods for nuclear material accountancy. In practice, physical, financial and time constraints mean that the techniques must be adapted to give an optimal performance in plant conditions. This thesis aims to bridge the gap between theory and practice, to show the benefits to be gained from a knowledge of the facility operation. Four different aspects are considered; firstly, the use of redundant measurements to reduce the error on the estimate of the mass of heavy metal in an 'accountancy tank' is investigated. Secondly, an analysis of the calibration data for the same tank is presented, establishing bounds for the error and suggesting a means of reducing them. Thirdly, a plant-specific method of producing an optimal statistic from the input, output and inventory data, to help decide between 'material loss' and 'no loss' hypotheses, is developed and compared with existing general techniques. Finally, an application of the Kalman Filter to materials accountancy is developed, to demonstrate the advantages of state-estimation techniques. The results of the analyses and comparisons illustrate the importance of taking into account a complete and accurate knowledge of the plant operation, measurement system, and calibration methods, to derive meaningful results from statistical tests on materials accountancy data, and to give a better understanding of critical random and systematic error sources. The analyses were carried out on the head-end of the Fast Reactor Reprocessing Plant, where fuel from the prototype fast reactor is cut up and dissolved. However, the techniques described are general in their application. (author)

  17. Improving the flash flood frequency analysis applying dendrogeomorphological evidences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Ballesteros, J. A.; Bodoque, J. M.; Stoffel, M.; Bollschweiler, M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

    2009-09-01

    Flash floods are one of the natural hazards that cause major damages worldwide. Especially in Mediterranean areas they provoke high economic losses every year. In mountain areas with high stream gradients, floods events are characterized by extremely high flow and debris transport rates. Flash flood analysis in mountain areas presents specific scientific challenges. On one hand, there is a lack of information on precipitation and discharge due to a lack of spatially well distributed gauge stations with long records. On the other hand, gauge stations may not record correctly during extreme events when they are damaged or the discharge exceeds the recordable level. In this case, no systematic data allows improvement of the understanding of the spatial and temporal occurrence of the process. Since historic documentation is normally scarce or even completely missing in mountain areas, tree-ring analysis can provide an alternative approach. Flash floods may influence trees in different ways: (1) tilting of the stem through the unilateral pressure of the flowing mass or individual boulders; (2) root exposure through erosion of the banks; (3) injuries and scars caused by boulders and wood transported in the flow; (4) decapitation of the stem and resulting candelabra growth through the severe impact of boulders; (5) stem burial through deposition of material. The trees react to these disturbances with specific growth changes such as abrupt change of the yearly increment and anatomical changes like reaction wood or callus tissue. In this study, we sampled 90 cross sections and 265 increment cores of trees heavily affected by past flash floods in order to date past events and to reconstruct recurrence intervals in two torrent channels located in the Spanish Central System. The first study site is located along the Pelayo River, a torrent in natural conditions. Based on the external disturbances of trees and their geomorphological position, 114 Pinus pinaster (Ait

  18. Applied machine learning in greenhouse simulation; new application and analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morteza Taki

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Prediction the inside environment variables in greenhouses is very important because they play a vital role in greenhouse cultivation and energy lost especially in cold and hot regions. The greenhouse environment is an uncertain nonlinear system which classical modeling methods have some problems to solve it. So the main goal of this study is to select the best method between Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Support Vector Machine (SVM to estimate three different variables include inside air, soil and plant temperatures (Ta, Ts, Tp and also energy exchange in a polyethylene greenhouse in Shahreza city, Isfahan province, Iran. The environmental factors which influencing all the inside temperatures such as outside air temperature, wind speed and outside solar radiation were collected as data samples. In this research, 13 different training algorithms were used for ANN models (MLP-RBF. Based on K-fold cross validation and Randomized Complete Block (RCB methodology, the best model was selected. The results showed that the type of training algorithm and kernel function are very important factors in ANN (RBF and MLP and SVM models performance, respectively. Comparing RBF, MLP and SVM models showed that the performance of RBF to predict Ta, Tp and Ts variables is better according to small values of RMSE and MAPE and large value of R2 indices. The range of RMSE and MAPE factors for RBF model to predict Ta, Tp and Ts were between 0.07 and 0.12 °C and 0.28–0.50%, respectively. Generalizability and stability of the RBF model with 5-fold cross validation analysis showed that this method can use with small size of data groups. The performance of best model (RBF to estimate the energy lost and exchange in the greenhouse with heat transfer models showed that this method can estimate the real data in greenhouse and then predict the energy lost and exchange with high accuracy. Keywords: Black box method, Energy lost, Environmental situation, Energy

  19. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  20. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  1. Use of quantitative uncertainty analysis for human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, F.L.W.; Gordon, J.W.; Kelly, M.

    1994-01-01

    Current human health risk assessment method for environmental risks typically use point estimates of risk accompanied by qualitative discussions of uncertainty. Alternatively, Monte Carlo simulations may be used with distributions for input parameters to estimate the resulting risk distribution and descriptive risk percentiles. These two techniques are applied for the ingestion of 1,1=dichloroethene in ground water. The results indicate that Monte Carlo simulations provide significantly more information for risk assessment and risk management than do point estimates

  2. Exploratory Factor Analysis as a Construct Validation Tool: (Mis)applications in Applied Linguistics Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karami, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Factor analysis has been frequently exploited in applied research to provide evidence about the underlying factors in various measurement instruments. A close inspection of a large number of studies published in leading applied linguistic journals shows that there is a misconception among applied linguists as to the relative merits of exploratory…

  3. Applied Drama and the Higher Education Learning Spaces: A Reflective Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyo, Cletus

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores Applied Drama as a teaching approach in Higher Education learning spaces. The exploration takes a reflective analysis approach by first examining the impact that Applied Drama has had on my career as a Lecturer/Educator/Teacher working in Higher Education environments. My engagement with Applied Drama practice and theory is…

  4. A novel bi-level meta-analysis approach: applied to biological pathway analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Tin; Tagett, Rebecca; Donato, Michele; Mitrea, Cristina; Draghici, Sorin

    2016-02-01

    The accumulation of high-throughput data in public repositories creates a pressing need for integrative analysis of multiple datasets from independent experiments. However, study heterogeneity, study bias, outliers and the lack of power of available methods present real challenge in integrating genomic data. One practical drawback of many P-value-based meta-analysis methods, including Fisher's, Stouffer's, minP and maxP, is that they are sensitive to outliers. Another drawback is that, because they perform just one statistical test for each individual experiment, they may not fully exploit the potentially large number of samples within each study. We propose a novel bi-level meta-analysis approach that employs the additive method and the Central Limit Theorem within each individual experiment and also across multiple experiments. We prove that the bi-level framework is robust against bias, less sensitive to outliers than other methods, and more sensitive to small changes in signal. For comparative analysis, we demonstrate that the intra-experiment analysis has more power than the equivalent statistical test performed on a single large experiment. For pathway analysis, we compare the proposed framework versus classical meta-analysis approaches (Fisher's, Stouffer's and the additive method) as well as against a dedicated pathway meta-analysis package (MetaPath), using 1252 samples from 21 datasets related to three human diseases, acute myeloid leukemia (9 datasets), type II diabetes (5 datasets) and Alzheimer's disease (7 datasets). Our framework outperforms its competitors to correctly identify pathways relevant to the phenotypes. The framework is sufficiently general to be applied to any type of statistical meta-analysis. The R scripts are available on demand from the authors. sorin@wayne.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e

  5. Applying the Heuristic to the Risk Assessment within the Automotive Industry Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marasova, Daniela; Andrejiova, Miriam; Grincova, Anna

    2017-03-01

    Risk management facilitates risk identification, evaluation, control, and by means of appropriate set of measures, risk reduction or complete elimination. Therefore, the risk management becomes a strategic factor for a company's success. Properly implemented risk management system does not represent a tool to avoid the risk; it is used to understand the risk and provide the bases for strategic decision-making. Risk management represents a key factor for the supply chain operations. Managing the risks is crucial for achieving the customer satisfaction and thus also a company's success. The subject-matter of the article is the assessment of the supply chain in the automobile industry, in terms of risks. The topicality of this problem is even higher, as after the economic crisis it is necessary to revaluate the readiness of the supply chain for prospective risk conditions. One advantage of this article is the use of the Saaty method as a tool for the risk management within the supply chain.

  6. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  7. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  8. A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department of Radiation Protection and Health, Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Manchester, The Faculty of Medical and Human Sciences, Manchester (United Kingdom); Schneider, Uwe [University of Zurich, Vetsuisse Faculty, Zurich (Switzerland); Radiotherapy Hirslanden AG, Aarau (Switzerland)

    2013-03-15

    Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0-1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However

  9. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  10. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  11. Beyond Time out and Table Time: Today's Applied Behavior Analysis for Students with Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutot, E. Amanda; Hume, Kara

    2012-01-01

    Recent mandates related to the implementation of evidence-based practices for individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) require that autism professionals both understand and are able to implement practices based on the science of applied behavior analysis (ABA). The use of the term "applied behavior analysis" and its related concepts…

  12. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  13. A Flood Risk Assessment of Quang Nam, Vietnam Using Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinh Luu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vietnam is highly vulnerable to flood and storm impacts. Holistic flood risk assessment maps that adequately consider flood risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are not available. These are vital for flood risk preparedness and disaster mitigation measures at the local scale. Unfortunately, there is a lack of knowledge about spatial multicriteria decision analysis and flood risk analysis more broadly in Vietnam. In response to this need, we identify and quantify flood risk components in Quang Nam province through spatial multicriteria decision analysis. The study presents a new approach to local flood risk assessment mapping, which combines historical flood marks with exposure and vulnerability data. The flood risk map output could assist and empower decision-makers in undertaking flood risk management activities in the province. Our study demonstrates a methodology to build flood risk assessment maps using flood mark, exposure and vulnerability data, which could be applied in other provinces in Vietnam.

  14. Nutrient Status and Contamination Risks from Digested Pig Slurry Applied on a Vegetable Crops Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaohui Zhang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of applied digested pig slurry on a vegetable crops field were studied. The study included a 3-year investigation on nutrient characteristics, heavy metals contamination and hygienic risks of a vegetable crops field in Wuhan, China. The results showed that, after anaerobic digestion, abundant N, P and K remained in the digested pig slurry while fecal coliforms, ascaris eggs, schistosoma eggs and hookworm eggs were highly reduced. High Cr, Zn and Cu contents in the digested pig slurry were found in spring. Digested pig slurry application to the vegetable crops field led to improved soil fertility. Plant-available P in the fertilized soils increased due to considerable increase in total P content and decrease in low-availability P fraction. The As content in the fertilized soils increased slightly but significantly (p = 0.003 compared with control. The Hg, Zn, Cr, Cd, Pb, and Cu contents in the fertilized soils did not exceed the maximum permissible contents for vegetable crops soils in China. However, high Zn accumulation should be of concern due to repeated applications of digested pig slurry. No fecal coliforms, ascaris eggs, schistosoma eggs or hookworm eggs were detected in the fertilized soils.

  15. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  16. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  17. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  20. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  1. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  2. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  3. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  4. Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyazova A.O.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

  5. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  6. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  7. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  8. Introduction to applied statistical signal analysis guide to biomedical and electrical engineering applications

    CERN Document Server

    Shiavi, Richard

    2007-01-01

    Introduction to Applied Statistical Signal Analysis is designed for the experienced individual with a basic background in mathematics, science, and computer. With this predisposed knowledge, the reader will coast through the practical introduction and move on to signal analysis techniques, commonly used in a broad range of engineering areas such as biomedical engineering, communications, geophysics, and speech.Introduction to Applied Statistical Signal Analysis intertwines theory and implementation with practical examples and exercises. Topics presented in detail include: mathematical

  9. An integrated approach of analytical network process and fuzzy based spatial decision making systems applied to landslide risk mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abedi Gheshlaghi, Hassan; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

    2017-09-01

    Landslides in mountainous areas render major damages to residential areas, roads, and farmlands. Hence, one of the basic measures to reduce the possible damage is by identifying landslide-prone areas through landslide mapping by different models and methods. The purpose of conducting this study is to evaluate the efficacy of a combination of two models of the analytical network process (ANP) and fuzzy logic in landslide risk mapping in the Azarshahr Chay basin in northwest Iran. After field investigations and a review of research literature, factors affecting the occurrence of landslides including slope, slope aspect, altitude, lithology, land use, vegetation density, rainfall, distance to fault, distance to roads, distance to rivers, along with a map of the distribution of occurred landslides were prepared in GIS environment. Then, fuzzy logic was used for weighting sub-criteria, and the ANP was applied to weight the criteria. Next, they were integrated based on GIS spatial analysis methods and the landslide risk map was produced. Evaluating the results of this study by using receiver operating characteristic curves shows that the hybrid model designed by areas under the curve 0.815 has good accuracy. Also, according to the prepared map, a total of 23.22% of the area, amounting to 105.38 km2, is in the high and very high-risk class. Results of this research are great of importance for regional planning tasks and the landslide prediction map can be used for spatial planning tasks and for the mitigation of future hazards in the study area.

  10. Inclusive Elementary Classroom Teacher Knowledge of and Attitudes toward Applied Behavior Analysis and Autism Spectrum Disorder and Their Use of Applied Behavior Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Jennifer A.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine inclusive elementary teacher knowledge and attitude toward Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and applied behavior analysis (ABA) and their use of ABA. Furthermore, this study examined if knowledge and attitude predicted use of ABA. A survey was developed and administered through a web-based program. Of the…

  11. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  12. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  13. Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

  14. Decision making for wildfires: A guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary A. Taber; Lisa M. Elenz; Paul G. Langowski

    2013-01-01

    This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the process is equally applicable to non-Federal...

  15. A risk based approach to firm evaluation applied to Dutch industries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.M. Vermeulen (Erik); J. Spronk (Jaap); D. van der Wijst (Nico)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, a method is developed to evaluate firms on the basis of the risks they face. In accordance with the multi-factor method, risk is represented as a vector of sensitivities for unexpected changes of risk factors. Subsequently, the sensitivities themselves are related to firm

  16. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  17. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  18. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  19. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  20. Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cagno, Enrico; De Ambroggi, Massimiliano; Grande, Ottavio; Trucco, Paolo

    2011-01-01

    The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.

  1. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  2. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  3. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  4. Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

  5. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  6. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  7. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  8. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, J.; Maccia, C.; Pages, P.

    1985-01-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now widely accepted as a rational analytical framework to consistently address the resource allocation problem underlying any risk management process. This paper presents how this technique can be usefully applied to complex systems such as the management of radioactive releases from nuclear power plants into the environment. (orig.) [de

  9. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  10. Schedule Risk Analysis Of Southern Mainway Construction In Jember Regency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susilo, K.; Wiguna, I. P. A.; Adi, T. J. W.

    2017-11-01

    In Jember Regency, it has been built Southern Cross Road (JLS) as part of regional project. On the implementation of previous construction, there were still some events which gave negative impact to the project. The purpose of this research is to analyze risk and its effect on schedule at the construction phase of JLS at Jember Regency. Risk identification process is carried out by site survey, literature studies and supporting data. The use of Probability and Impact Matrix were aimed to obtain the level of risk. Based on the analysis, it was obtained six highest risk that could affecting schedule, such as difficult access locations, heavy rains, increases of material price, broken road pavement work, change order, and work accident. Risk responses were proposed by applying agreement to guarantee stock and price of materials, prioritized drainage, and constructing bridge to solve difficult access. An intense coordination in the site, routine checks of quality, manufacturing of retailing walls were also needed to reduce possibility of distruption to pavement work. To avoid work accident, it is needed to socialize about harsh terrain condition, mutual allertness among supervisor, worker and the others, and also all personals must comply with savety rules.

  11. Properly pricing country risk: a model for pricing long-term fundamental risk applied to central and eastern European countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debora Revoltella

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The private sector has used proxies such as sovereign credit ratings, spreads on sovereign bonds and spreads on sovereign credit default swaps (CDS to gauge country risk, even though these measures are pricing the risk of default of government bonds, which is different from the risks facing private participants in cross-border financing. Under normal market conditions, the CDS spreads are a very useful source of information on country risk. However, the recent crisis has shown that the CDS spreads might lead to some underpricing or overpricing of fundamentals in the case of excessively low or excessively high risk aversion. In this paper we develop an alternative measure of country risk that extracts the volatile, short-term market sentiment component from the sover eign CDS spread in order to improve its reliability in periods of market distress. We show that adverse market sentiment was a key driver of the sharp increase in sovereign CDS spreads of central and eastern European (CEE countries during the most severe phase of the crisis. We also show that our measure of country risk sheds some light on the observed stability of cross-border bank flows to CEE banks during the crisis.

  12. Applying Service Performance Guarantees to Reduce Risk Perception in the Purchase and Consumption of Higher Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nooraini Mohamad Sheriff

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The intangible nature of education is one contributor to consumers’ perception of risk prior to their purchase and consumption. This risk includes: functional risk, financial risk, temporal risk, physical risk, psychological risk and social risk. The presence of these risks often makes consumer evaluation prior to purchase and consumption difficult. Invoking a service guarantee is a platform available to enable higher educational institutions to minimize such risk perception so as to induce purchase. Specifically, service guarantee for higher education entails the application of teaching performance guarantee. This form of guarantee focuses on two important customer groups of higher educational institutions namely, students and faculty members, and focuses only on a specific performance aspect such as instructor’s performance. Thus, if students are dissatisfied with an instructor’s performance they are entitled to receive their money back. The imposition of such a teaching performance guarantee would implicate instructor’s accountability for certain aspects of their performance. It also establishes a mechanism to solicit feedback to better understand why and how instructors fail. Consequently, service performance guarantee creates a high level of customer focus and signals instructors’ care towards students

  13. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  14. Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

  15. Research in progress in applied mathematics, numerical analysis, and computer science

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    Research conducted at the Institute in Science and Engineering in applied mathematics, numerical analysis, and computer science is summarized. The Institute conducts unclassified basic research in applied mathematics in order to extend and improve problem solving capabilities in science and engineering, particularly in aeronautics and space.

  16. Model Proposition for the Fiscal Policies Analysis Applied in Economic Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Preda

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study about fiscal policy applied in economic development. Correlations between macroeconomics and fiscal indicators signify the first steep in our analysis. Next step is a new model proposal for the fiscal and budgetary choices. This model is applied on the date of the Romanian case.

  17. Advantages and Drawbacks of Applying Periodic Time-Variant Modal Analysis to Spur Gear Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rune; Santos, Ilmar; Hede, Ivan Arthur

    2010-01-01

    to ensure sufficient accuracy of the results. The method of time-variant modal analysis is applied, and the changes in the fundamental and the parametric resonance frequencies as a function of the rotational speed of the gears, are found. By obtaining the stationary and parametric parts of the time...... of applying the methodology to wind turbine gearboxes are addressed and elucidated....

  18. Risk perception as it applies to nuclear power and nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprecher, W.M.

    1988-01-01

    Disparate perceptions of risk have emerged as one of the critical issues confronting the future of commercial nuclear power. This paper explores the origins and possible ramifications of the public's perception of risks associated with commercial nuclear power and related high-level nuclear waste disposal programs. This paper summarizes the results of numerous psychometric studies and public opinion polls that analyze the relationship of risk to nuclear power and waste management

  19. Applied behavior analysis: understanding and changing behavior in the community-a representative review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luyben, Paul D

    2009-01-01

    Applied behavior analysis, a psychological discipline, has been characterized as the science of behavior change (Chance, 2006). Research in applied behavior analysis has been published for approximately 40 years since the initial publication of the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis in 1968. The field now encompasses a wide range of human behavior. Although much of the published research centers on problem behaviors that occur in schools and among people with disabilities, a substantial body of knowledge has emerged in community settings. This article provides a review of the behavioral community research published in the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis as representative of this work, including research in the areas of home and family, health, safety, community involvement and the environment, recreation and sports, crime and delinquency, and organizations. In the interest of space, research in schools and with people with disabilities has been excluded from this review.

  20. Transmission risk assessment of invasive fluke Fascioloides magna using GIS-modelling and multicriteria analysis methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juhásová L.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The combination of multicriteria analysis (MCA, particularly analytic hierarchy process (AHP and geographic information system (GIS were applied for transmission risk assessment of Fascioloides magna (Trematoda; Fasciolidae in south-western Slovakia. Based on the details on F. magna life cycle, the following risk factors (RF of parasite transmission were determined: intermediate (RFIH and final hosts (RFFH (biological factors, annual precipitation (RFAP, land use (RFLU, flooded area (RFFA, and annual mean air temperature (RFAT (environmental factors. Two types of risk analyses were modelled: (1 potential risk analysis was focused on the determination of the potential risk of parasite transmission into novel territories (data on F. magna occurrence were excluded; (2 actual risk analysis considered also the summary data on F. magna occurrence in the model region (risk factor parasite occurrence RFPO included in the analysis. The results of the potential risk analysis provided novel distribution pattern and revealed new geographical area as the potential risk zone of F. magna occurrence. Although the actual risk analysis revealed all four risk zones of F. magna transmission (acceptable, moderate, undesirable and unacceptable, its outputs were significantly affected by the data on parasite occurrence what reduced the informative value of the actual transmission risk assessment.

  1. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  2. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  3. Ecological risk assessment of the antibiotic enrofloxacin applied to Pangasius catfish farms in the Mekong delta, Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rico Artero, A.; Phu, T.M.; Huong, D.T.T.; Phuong, N.T.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2015-01-01

    Antibiotics applied in aquaculture production may be released into the environment and contribute to the deterioration of surrounding aquatic ecosystems. In the present study, we assessed the ecological risks posed by the use of the antibiotic enrofloxacin (ENR), and its main metabolite

  4. Applying the Flood Vulnerability Index as a Knowledge base for flood risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balica, S-F.

    2012-01-01

    Floods are one of the most common and widely distributed natural risks to life and property worldwide. An important part of modern flood risk management is to evaluate vulnerability to floods. This evaluation can be done only by using a parametric approach. Worldwide there is a need to enhance our

  5. Competition of two supply chains with different risk structures: applying market research option

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hafezolkotob

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Demand uncertainty obliges all participants through a supply chain to make decisions under uncertainty. These decisions extend across price, investment, production, and inventory quantities. We take account of competition between two supply chains under demand uncertainty. These chains internally are involved in vertical pricing competition; however, they externally participate in horizontal pricing and service level competitions by offering a single-type product to the market. Since firms may have various attitudes against demand uncertainty and its related risks, different risk structures for competitive supply chains are considered. We assume that risk-averse firms are able to decrease demand uncertainty by information gathered from market research. For risk-averse participants in a chain, market research investment is an appropriate ground for vertical coordination, which diminishes risk through a supply chain. Optimal strategies based on game theory are obtained for different risk structures; furthermore, for each structure the effects of risk sensitivity as well as market research efficiency on these optimal strategies are investigated. Finally, we propose two scenarios for information sharing between risk-averse participants.

  6. Applying Costs, Risks and Values Evaluation (CRAVE) methodology to Engineering Support Request (ESR) prioritization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joglekar, Prafulla N.

    1994-01-01

    Given limited budget, the problem of prioritization among Engineering Support Requests (ESR's) with varied sizes, shapes, and colors is a difficult one. At the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), the recently developed 4-Matrix (4-M) method represents a step in the right direction as it attempts to combine the traditional criteria of technical merits only with the new concern for cost-effectiveness. However, the 4-M method was not adequately successful in the actual prioritization of ESRs for the fiscal year 1995 (FY95). This research identifies a number of design issues that should help us to develop better methods. It emphasizes that given the variety and diversity of ESR's one should not expect that a single method could help in the assessment of all ESR's. One conclusion is that a methodology such as Costs, Risks, and Values Evaluation (CRAVE) should be adopted. It also is clear that the development of methods such as 4-M requires input not only from engineers with technical expertise in ESR's but also from personnel with adequate background in the theory and practice of cost-effectiveness analysis. At KSC, ESR prioritization is one part of the Ground Support Working Teams (GSWT) Integration Process. It was discovered that the more important barriers to the incorporation of cost-effectiveness considerations in ESR prioritization lie in this process. The culture of integration, and the corresponding structure of review by a committee of peers, is not conducive to the analysis and confrontation necessary in the assessment and prioritization of ESR's. Without assistance from appropriately trained analysts charged with the responsibility to analyze and be confrontational about each ESR, the GSWT steering committee will continue to make its decisions based on incomplete understanding, inconsistent numbers, and at times, colored facts. The current organizational separation of the prioritization and the funding processes is also identified as an important barrier to the

  7. Why is risk communication hardly applied in Japan? Psychological problem of scientific experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosugi, Motoko; Tsuchiya, Tomoko; Taniguchi, Taketoshi

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the problems that impair to communicate about technological risks with the public in Japan, especially focusing on views of experts as a supplier of risk information. In this study, we also clarified through the questionnaire surveys that there were significant differences of risk perception and of information environment about science and technology between the public and scientific experts, as many previous studies showed. And most important fact is that experts perceive the difference in risk perception between the public and experts larger than the public does. We conclude that this experts' cognition impedes to take a first step toward communicating with the public about technological risks. (author)

  8. Applying a sociolinguistic model to the analysis of informed consent documents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granero-Molina, José; Fernández-Sola, Cayetano; Aguilera-Manrique, Gabriel

    2009-11-01

    Information on the risks and benefits related to surgical procedures is essential for patients in order to obtain their informed consent. Some disciplines, such as sociolinguistics, offer insights that are helpful for patient-professional communication in both written and oral consent. Communication difficulties become more acute when patients make decisions through an informed consent document because they may sign this with a lack of understanding and information, and consequently feel deprived of their freedom to make their choice about different treatments or surgery. This article discusses findings from documentary analysis using the sociolinguistic SPEAKING model, which was applied to the general and specific informed consent documents required for laparoscopic surgery of the bile duct at Torrecárdenas Hospital, Almería, Spain. The objective of this procedure was to identify flaws when information was provided, together with its readability, its voluntary basis, and patients' consent. The results suggest potential linguistic communication difficulties, different languages being used, cultural clashes, asymmetry of communication between professionals and patients, assignment of rights on the part of patients, and overprotection of professionals and institutions.

  9. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  10. Applying an Evidence-Based Assessment Model to Identify Students at Risk for Perceived Academic Problems following Concussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Danielle M; Burns, Alison R; Youngstrom, Eric A; Vaughan, Christopher G; Sady, Maegan D; Gioia, Gerard A

    2016-11-01

    The aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of an evidence-based assessment (EBA) model to establish a multimodal set of tools for identifying students at risk for perceived post-injury academic problems. Participants included 142 students diagnosed with concussion (age: M=14.95; SD=1.80; 59% male), evaluated within 4 weeks of injury (median=16 days). Demographics, pre-injury history, self- and parent-report measures assessing symptom severity and executive functions, and cognitive test performance were examined as predictors of self-reported post-injury academic problems. Latent class analysis categorized participants into "high" (44%) and "low" (56%) levels of self-reported academic problems. Receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed significant discriminative validity for self- and parent-reported symptom severity and executive dysfunction and self-reported exertional response for identifying students reporting low versus high academic problems. Parent-reported symptom ratings [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)=.79] and executive dysfunction (AUC=.74), and self-reported ratings of executive dysfunction (AUC=.84), symptoms (AUC=.80), and exertional response (AUC=.70) each classified students significantly better than chance (psperspective in the management of concussion by applying traditional strengths of neuropsychological assessment to clinical decision making. (JINS, 2016, 22, 1038-1049).

  11. School attendance, health-risk behaviors, and self-esteem in adolescents applying for working papers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suss, A L; Tinkelman, B K; Freeman, K; Friedman, S B

    1996-01-01

    Since health-risk behaviors are often encountered in clusters among adolescents, it was hypothesized that adolescents with poor school attendance would be associated with more health-risk behaviors (e.g., substance use, violence) than those who attend school regularly. This study assessed the relationship between poor school attendance and health-risk behaviors, and described health-risk behaviors and self-esteem among adolescents seeking employment. In this cross-sectional study, school attendance (poor vs. regular attendance) was related to health-risk behaviors by asking 122 subjects seen at a New York City Working Papers Clinic to complete both a 72-item questionnaire about their health-risk behaviors and the 58-item Coopersmith Self-Esteem School Form Inventory. Chi-square and Fisher's Exact Tests were performed. The poor and regular attenders of school differed significantly in only 5 out of 44 items pertaining to health-risk behaviors. Self-esteem measures for the two groups did not differ from one another or from national norms. In this sample, depression "in general" (global) and "at home," but not "at school," were associated significantly with suicidal thoughts/attempts and serious past life events (e.g. family conflict, sexual abuse). There were no significant associations between depression or self-esteem and illicit substance or alcohol use. We found few associations between poor school attendance and health-risk behaviors in this sample of employment-seeking adolescents. The poor and regular attenders of school were similar in most aspects of their health-risk behaviors and self-esteem.

  12. Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Oil Sands Environmental Compliance Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roux, Izak Johannes, III

    Oil companies in Alberta, Canada, invested $32 billion on new oil sands projects in 2013. Despite the size of this investment, there is a demonstrable deficiency in the uniformity and understanding of environmental legislation requirements that manifest into increased project compliance risks. This descriptive study developed 2 prioritized lists of environmental regulatory compliance risks and mitigation strategies and used multi-criteria decision theory for its theoretical framework. Information from compiled lists of environmental compliance risks and mitigation strategies was used to generate a specialized pairwise survey, which was piloted by 5 subject matter experts (SMEs). The survey was validated by a sample of 16 SMEs, after which the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank a total of 33 compliance risks and 12 mitigation strategy criteria. A key finding was that the AHP is a suitable tool for ranking of compliance risks and mitigation strategies. Several working hypotheses were also tested regarding how SMEs prioritized 1 compliance risk or mitigation strategy compared to another. The AHP showed that regulatory compliance, company reputation, environmental compliance, and economics ranked the highest and that a multi criteria mitigation strategy for environmental compliance ranked the highest. The study results will inform Alberta oil sands industry leaders about the ranking and utility of specific compliance risks and mitigations strategies, enabling them to focus on actions that will generate legislative and public trust. Oil sands leaders implementing a risk management program using the risks and mitigation strategies identified in this study will contribute to environmental conservation, economic growth, and positive social change.

  13. Applying the Msharpp Method in Risk Assessment for the Water Supply Critical Infrastructure Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badea Dorel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper highlights a manner to assess risks for an important sector of critical infrastructure, that of water supply, frequently regulated in international legal systems. We took into consideration the fact that risk is a problem related to the processes of decision making under conditions of uncertainty in most cases, so that by this approach we bring to the attention of critical infrastructure managers, drawing on their experience, a simple method that can be considered in a preliminary stage of risk assessment specific to water supply.

  14. Critical Analysis of a Website: A Critique based on Critical Applied Linguistics and Critical Discourse Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rina Agustina

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available E-learning was easily found through browsing internet, which was mostly free of charge and provided various learning materials. Spellingcity.com was one of e-learning websites for teaching and learning English to learn spelling, vocabulary and writing, which offered various games and activities for young learners, 6 until 8 year old learners in particular. Having considered those constraints, this paper aimed to analyse the website from two different views: (1 critical applied linguistics  (CAL aspects and (2 critical  discourse analysis (CDA. After analysing the website using CAL and CDA, it was found that the website was adequate for beginner, in which it provided fun learning through games as well as challenged learners’ to test their vocabulary. Despite of these strengths, there were several issues required further thinking in terms of learners’ broad knowledge, such as, some of learning materials focused on states in America. It was quite difficult for EFL learners if they did not have adequate general knowledge. Thus, the findings implied that the website could be used as a supporting learning material, which accompanied textbooks and vocabulary exercise books.

  15. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) cybersecurity risk management framework applied to modern vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    The primary objective of the work described in this report is to review the National Institute of Science and Technology (NIST) guidelines and foundational publications from an automotive : cybersecurity risk management stand-point. The NIST approach...

  16. Big Data Usage Patterns in the Health Care Domain: A Use Case Driven Approach Applied to the Assessment of Vaccination Benefits and Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liyanage, H.; Liaw, S-T.; Kuziemsky, C.; Mold, F.; Krause, P.; Fleming, D.; Jones, S.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Background Generally benefits and risks of vaccines can be determined from studies carried out as part of regulatory compliance, followed by surveillance of routine data; however there are some rarer and more long term events that require new methods. Big data generated by increasingly affordable personalised computing, and from pervasive computing devices is rapidly growing and low cost, high volume, cloud computing makes the processing of these data inexpensive. Objective To describe how big data and related analytical methods might be applied to assess the benefits and risks of vaccines. Method: We reviewed the literature on the use of big data to improve health, applied to generic vaccine use cases, that illustrate benefits and risks of vaccination. We defined a use case as the interaction between a user and an information system to achieve a goal. We used flu vaccination and pre-school childhood immunisation as exemplars. Results We reviewed three big data use cases relevant to assessing vaccine benefits and risks: (i) Big data processing using crowd-sourcing, distributed big data processing, and predictive analytics, (ii) Data integration from heterogeneous big data sources, e.g. the increasing range of devices in the “internet of things”, and (iii) Real-time monitoring for the direct monitoring of epidemics as well as vaccine effects via social media and other data sources. Conclusions Big data raises new ethical dilemmas, though its analysis methods can bring complementary real-time capabilities for monitoring epidemics and assessing vaccine benefit-risk balance. PMID:25123718

  17. Recent developments in health risks modeling techniques applied to hazardous waste site assessment and remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendez, W.M. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Remediation of hazardous an mixed waste sites is often driven by assessments of human health risks posed by the exposures to hazardous substances released from these sites. The methods used to assess potential health risk involve, either implicitly or explicitly, models for pollutant releases, transport, human exposure and intake, and for characterizing health effects. Because knowledge about pollutant fate transport processes at most waste sites is quite limited, and data cost are quite high, most of the models currently used to assess risk, and endorsed by regulatory agencies, are quite simple. The models employ many simplifying assumptions about pollutant fate and distribution in the environment about human pollutant intake, and toxicologic responses to pollutant exposures. An important consequence of data scarcity and model simplification is that risk estimates are quite uncertain and estimates of the magnitude uncertainty associated with risk assessment has been very difficult. A number of methods have been developed to address the issue of uncertainty in risk assessments in a manner that realistically reflects uncertainty in model specification and data limitations. These methods include definition of multiple exposure scenarios, sensitivity analyses, and explicit probabilistic modeling of uncertainty. Recent developments in this area will be discussed, along with their possible impacts on remediation programs, and remaining obstacles to their wider use and acceptance by the scientific and regulatory communities

  18. The Veterans Affairs Cardiac Risk Score: Recalibrating the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score for Applied Use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, Jeremy B; Wiitala, Wyndy L; Zawistowski, Matthew; Hofer, Timothy P; Bentley, Douglas; Hayward, Rodney A

    2017-09-01

    Accurately estimating cardiovascular risk is fundamental to good decision-making in cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but risk scores developed in one population often perform poorly in dissimilar populations. We sought to examine whether a large integrated health system can use their electronic health data to better predict individual patients' risk of developing CVD. We created a cohort using all patients ages 45-80 who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) ambulatory care services in 2006 with no history of CVD, heart failure, or loop diuretics. Our outcome variable was new-onset CVD in 2007-2011. We then developed a series of recalibrated scores, including a fully refit "VA Risk Score-CVD (VARS-CVD)." We tested the different scores using standard measures of prediction quality. For the 1,512,092 patients in the study, the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score had similar discrimination as the VARS-CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 in men and 0.73 in women), but the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease model had poor calibration, predicting 63% more events than observed. Calibration was excellent in the fully recalibrated VARS-CVD tool, but simpler techniques tested proved less reliable. We found that local electronic health record data can be used to estimate CVD better than an established risk score based on research populations. Recalibration improved estimates dramatically, and the type of recalibration was important. Such tools can also easily be integrated into health system's electronic health record and can be more readily updated.

  19. The acquired preparedness risk model applied to smoking in 5th grade children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Combs, Jessica L; Spillane, Nichea S; Caudill, Leann; Stark, Brittany; Smith, Gregory T

    2012-03-01

    The very early onset of smoking predicts numerous health problems. The authors conducted the first test of one risk model for elementary school age smoking, known as the acquired preparedness (AP) model of risk, in a cross-sectional sample of 309 5th grade children. The model posits that (a) impulsivity-related personality traits contribute to risk for a variety of risky, maladaptive behaviors; (b) smoking expectancies confer risk only for smoking; and (c) the personality traits contribute to the formation of high risk expectancies for reinforcement from smoking, which in turn increases the likelihood of early onset smoking. The model was supported: the high-risk personality traits distinguished children engaging in any risky, maladaptive behavior from other children, and the smoking expectancies differentiated smokers from all other children. The relationship between personality tendencies to act rashly when experiencing intense positive or negative emotions and smoker status was partially mediated by expectancies for reinforcement from smoking. This model should be investigated longitudinally. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Applied Behavior Analysis: Its Impact on the Treatment of Mentally Retarded Emotionally Disturbed People.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matson, Johnny L.; Coe, David A.

    1992-01-01

    This article reviews applications of the applied behavior analysis ideas of B. F. Skinner and others to persons with both mental retardation and emotional disturbance. The review examines implications of behavior analysis for operant conditioning and radical behaviorism, schedules of reinforcement, and emotion and mental illness. (DB)

  1. An Objective Comparison of Applied Behavior Analysis and Organizational Behavior Management Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culig, Kathryn M.; Dickinson, Alyce M.; McGee, Heather M.; Austin, John

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents an objective review, analysis, and comparison of empirical studies targeting the behavior of adults published in Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis (JABA) and Journal of Organizational Behavior Management (JOBM) between 1997 and 2001. The purpose of the comparisons was to identify similarities and differences with respect to…

  2. Sociosexuality Education for Persons with Autism Spectrum Disorders Using Principles of Applied Behavior Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, Pamela S.; Condo, Bethany; Hardaway, Emily

    2009-01-01

    Applied behavior analysis (ABA) has emerged as one of the most effective empirically based strategies for instructing individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Four ABA-based strategies that have been found effective are video modeling, visual strategies, social script fading, and task analysis. Individuals with ASD often struggle with…

  3. Applying Fuzzy and Probabilistic Uncertainty Concepts to the Material Flow Analysis of Palladium in Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laner, David; Rechberger, Helmut; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2015-01-01

    Material flow analysis (MFA) is a widely applied tool to investigate resource and recycling systems of metals and minerals. Owing to data limitations and restricted system understanding, MFA results are inherently uncertain. To demonstrate the systematic implementation of uncertainty analysis in ...

  4. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. A practical guide to propensity score analysis for applied clinical research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jaehoon; Little, Todd D

    2017-11-01

    Observational studies are often the only viable options in many clinical settings, especially when it is unethical or infeasible to randomly assign participants to different treatment régimes. In such case propensity score (PS) analysis can be applied to accounting for possible selection bias and thereby addressing questions of causal inference. Many PS methods exist, yet few guidelines are available to aid applied researchers in their conduct and evaluation of a PS analysis. In this article we give an overview of available techniques for PS estimation and application, balance diagnostic, treatment effect estimation, and sensitivity assessment, as well as recent advances. We also offer a tutorial that can be used to emulate the steps of PS analysis. Our goal is to provide information that will bring PS analysis within the reach of applied clinical researchers and practitioners. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk analysis of geothermal power plants using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feili, Hamid Reza; Akar, Navid; Lotfizadeh, Hossein; Bairampour, Mohammad; Nasiri, Sina

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to find potential failures in geothermal power plants. • We considered 5 major parts of geothermal power plants for risk analysis. • Risk Priority Number (RPN) is calculated for all failure modes. • Corrective actions are recommended to eliminate or decrease the risk of failure modes. - Abstract: Renewable energy plays a key role in the transition toward a low carbon economy and the provision of a secure supply of energy. Geothermal energy is a versatile source as a form of renewable energy that meets popular demand. Since some Geothermal Power Plants (GPPs) face various failures, the requirement of a technique for team engineering to eliminate or decrease potential failures is considerable. Because no specific published record of considering an FMEA applied to GPPs with common failure modes have been found already, in this paper, the utilization of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as a convenient technique for determining, classifying and analyzing common failures in typical GPPs is considered. As a result, an appropriate risk scoring of occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes and computing the Risk Priority Number (RPN) for detecting high potential failures is achieved. In order to expedite accuracy and ability to analyze the process, XFMEA software is utilized. Moreover, 5 major parts of a GPP is studied to propose a suitable approach for developing GPPs and increasing reliability by recommending corrective actions for each failure mode

  7. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  8. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  9. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  10. Residue behavior and risk assessment of imidacloprid applied on greenhouse-cultivated strawberries under different application conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cang, Tao; Sun, Caixia; Zhao, Hua; Tang, Tao; Zhang, Changpeng; Yu, Ruixian; Wang, Xinquan; Wang, Qiang; Dai, Fen; Zhao, Xueping

    2018-02-01

    A risk assessment for imidacloprid applied on strawberries under different conditions was performed after residue determination using the quick, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe (QuEChERS) method. The application conditions were varied according to the applied dosage, addition of a plant oil or organosilicon surfactant, water volume, and sprayer type. The degradation dynamics of imidacloprid on strawberries followed first-order kinetics. At applied doses of 30-60 g a.i. ha -1 , the half-lives of imidacloprid were 2.89-3.46, 1.98-3.65, and 2.57-2.77 days after application without a surfactant or with a plant oil or organosilicon surfactant, respectively. For water volumes of 112.5, 225, 450, 675, and 900 L ha -1 , the half-lives of imidacloprid applied in the presence of the plant oil surfactant were 3.30, 7.70, 5.33, 7.70, and 6.30 days, respectively. The half-lives after application with a knapsack mist duster, electric sprayer, and manual sprayer were 2.16, 5.77, and 7.70 days, respectively. The health risk assessment revealed risk quotients less than 1 in all cases, indicating that the application of imidacloprid poses a low health risk to humans after a pre-harvest interval of 10 days under our application conditions. The risk assessment results can provide reference data for setting a reasonable maximum residue limit for imidacloprid on strawberries in China.

  11. ANALYSIS OF ROMANIAN SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES BANKRUPTCY RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulcsar Edina

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the fundamental role of small and medium enterprises in Romanian economy, this paper aims to quantify the level of their bankruptcy risk for 2009 and 2012 period, after debuting of financial crisis. The main reason of selecting this type of companies is that they represent the backbone of national economy. They have an indispensable role, because they offer jobs for great part of population and their contribution for GDP stimulation is considerable. In this paper it was applied two default risk models, namely the well known Altman’s Z-score model, based on five financial ratios and a bankruptcy predictor model developed by Teti et. al (2012 used firstly exclusively for Italian small and medium-sized enterprise for 2006-2009 period. The model proposed by Teti et. is based on the investigation of financially distressed and financially non-distressed Italian small and medium-sized enterprises during the financial crisis by using a discriminant analysis model. They conclude that there are four financial ratios, which characterized well the small and medium-sized enterprises bankruptcy risk. These variables are financial ratios, like: Debt/Total Assets, Return on Sales (ROS, EBIT/Interest Expenses and Working capital/EBIDTA. They consider that small and medium-sized enterprises require a particular approach in terms of bankruptcy risk analysis. In present study I try to compare the efficiency of traditional bankruptcy risk model with a small and medium-sized specific model. The necessary database for present analysis is ensured by simplified financial reports of 120 small and medium-sized enterprises registered in Bihor County. The selected enterprises are operating in manufacturing industry (21,67% and trading (78,33%. Present investigation has an important value in actual economic background, where the healthiness and sustainability of small and medium-sized enterprises is a great issue. The results of study shows contradictory

  12. Contemporary challenges in applying of the modified model CAPM with country risk premium in emerging economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Dragana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern approach in determining the expected return of foreign investors' investments is based on the evaluation investment in capital asset-CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model. In order to use the CAPM model for calculating the expected return of foreign investors in growing economies, it is developed the extended model CAPM with the risk premium in the country. This variant of the CAPM model has been used for estimating the cost of capital. This is the expected return on a portfolio of the company's stocks in less developed countries. Those countries have certain problems and factors of risk investment. This research examines the limitations and shortcomings in the application of the extended model with country risk premium, during the calculation of the cost of capital in the less developed economies. We present possible models to overcome those problems and also a need for upgrading of modified CAPM model with a risk premium of the country which, beside risk of the country (CR must have a discount for the 'advantage of the country'.

  13. Applying a new mammographic imaging marker to predict breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghaei, Faranak; Danala, Gopichandh; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Stoug, Rebecca G.; Pearce, Melanie; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

    2018-02-01

    Identifying and developing new mammographic imaging markers to assist prediction of breast cancer risk has been attracting extensive research interest recently. Although mammographic density is considered an important breast cancer risk, its discriminatory power is lower for predicting short-term breast cancer risk, which is a prerequisite to establish a more effective personalized breast cancer screening paradigm. In this study, we presented a new interactive computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme to generate a new quantitative mammographic imaging marker based on the bilateral mammographic tissue density asymmetry to predict risk of cancer detection in the next subsequent mammography screening. An image database involving 1,397 women was retrospectively assembled and tested. Each woman had two digital mammography screenings namely, the "current" and "prior" screenings with a time interval from 365 to 600 days. All "prior" images were originally interpreted negative. In "current" screenings, these cases were divided into 3 groups, which include 402 positive, 643 negative, and 352 biopsy-proved benign cases, respectively. There is no significant difference of BIRADS based mammographic density ratings between 3 case groups (p cancer detection in the "current" screening. Study demonstrated that this new imaging marker had potential to yield significantly higher discriminatory power to predict short-term breast cancer risk.

  14. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  15. An Analysis of Methods Section of Research Reports in Applied Linguistics

    OpenAIRE

    Patrícia Marcuzzo

    2011-01-01

    This work aims at identifying analytical categories and research procedures adopted in the analysis of research article in Applied Linguistics/EAP in order to propose a systematization of the research procedures in Genre Analysis. For that purpose, 12 research reports and interviews with four authors were analyzed. The analysis showed that the studies are concentrated on the investigation of the macrostructure or on the microstructure of research articles in different fields. Studies about th...

  16. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  17. Applying predictive analytics to develop an intelligent risk detection application for healthcare contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghimi, Fatemeh Hoda; Cheung, Michael; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare is an information rich industry where successful outcomes require the processing of multi-spectral data and sound decision making. The exponential growth of data and big data issues coupled with a rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today, requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Such a context is appropriate for the application of real time intelligent risk detection decision support systems using predictive analytic techniques such as data mining. To illustrate the power and potential of data science technologies in healthcare decision making scenarios, the use of an intelligent risk detection (IRD) model is proffered for the context of Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) in children, an area which requires complex high risk decisions that need to be made expeditiously and accurately in order to ensure successful healthcare outcomes.

  18. Risk assessment framework of fate and transport models applied to hazardous waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, S.T.

    1993-06-01

    Risk assessment is an increasingly important part of the decision-making process in the cleanup of hazardous waste sites. Despite guidelines from regulatory agencies and considerable research efforts to reduce uncertainties in risk assessments, there are still many issues unanswered. This paper presents new research results pertaining to fate and transport models, which will be useful in estimating exposure concentrations and will help reduce uncertainties in risk assessment. These developments include an approach for (1) estimating the degree of emissions and concentration levels of volatile pollutants during the use of contaminated water, (2) absorption of organic chemicals in the soil matrix through the skin, and (3) steady state, near-field, contaminant concentrations in the aquifer within a waste boundary

  19. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  20. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  1. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  2. Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

    2012-01-01

    In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

  3. Qualified Presumption of Safety (QPS) is a generic risk assessment approach applied by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leuschner, R. G. K.; Robinson, T. P.; Hugas, M.

    2010-01-01

    Qualified Presumption of Safety (QPS) is a generic risk assessment approach applied by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to notified biological agents aiming at simplifying risk assessments across different scientific Panels and Units. The aim of this review is to outline the implementation...... and value of the QPS assessment for EFSA and to explain its principles such as the unambiguous identity of a taxonomic unit, the body of knowledge including potential safety concerns and how these considerations lead to a list of biological agents recommended for QPS which EFSA keeps updated through...

  4. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  5. A Bayesian approach to landscape ecological risk assessment applied to the upper Grande Ronde watershed, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimberley K. Ayre; Wayne G. Landis

    2012-01-01

    We present a Bayesian network model based on the ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate potential impacts to habitats and resources resulting from wildfire, grazing, forest management activities, and insect outbreaks in a forested landscape in northeastern Oregon. The Bayesian network structure consisted of three tiers of nodes: landscape disturbances,...

  6. At-Risk Students and Virtual Enterprise: Tourism and Hospitality Simulations in Applied and Academic Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgese, Anthony

    This paper discusses Virtual Enterprise (VE), a technology-driven business simulation program in which students conceive, create, and operate enterprises that utilize Web-based and other technologies to trade products and services around the world. The study examined the effects of VE on a learning community of at-risk students, defined as those…

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment of veterinary medicines applied to four major aquaculture species produced in ASIA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rico, A.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Aquaculture production constitutes one of the main sources of pollution with veterinary medicines into the environment. About 90% of the global aquaculture production is produced in Asia and the potential environmental risks associated with the use of veterinary medicines in Asian aquaculture have

  8. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  9. Towards factor analysis exploration applied to positron emission tomography functional imaging for breast cancer characterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rekik, W.; Ketata, I.; Sellami, L.; Ben slima, M.; Ben Hamida, A.; Chtourou, K.; Ruan, S.

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to explore the factor analysis when applied to a dynamic sequence of medical images obtained using nuclear imaging modality, Positron Emission Tomography (PET). This latter modality allows obtaining information on physiological phenomena, through the examination of radiotracer evolution during time. Factor analysis of dynamic medical images sequence (FADMIS) estimates the underlying fundamental spatial distributions by factor images and the associated so-called fundamental functions (describing the signal variations) by factors. This method is based on an orthogonal analysis followed by an oblique analysis. The results of the FADMIS are physiological curves showing the evolution during time of radiotracer within homogeneous tissues distributions. This functional analysis of dynamic nuclear medical images is considered to be very efficient for cancer diagnostics. In fact, it could be applied for cancer characterization, vascularization as well as possible evaluation of response to therapy.

  10. International publication trends in the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis: 2000-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Neil T; Nosik, Melissa R; Carr, James E

    2016-06-01

    Dymond, Clarke, Dunlap, and Steiner's (2000) analysis of international publication trends in the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis (JABA) from 1970 to 1999 revealed low numbers of publications from outside North America, leading the authors to express concern about the lack of international involvement in applied behavior analysis. They suggested that a future review would be necessary to evaluate any changes in international authorship in the journal. As a follow-up, we analyzed non-U.S. publication trends in the most recent 15 years of JABA and found similar results. We discuss potential reasons for the relative paucity of international authors and suggest potential strategies for increasing non-U.S. contributions to the advancement of behavior analysis. © 2015 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  11. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  12. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  13. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  14. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  15. Decision making support of the management of technogenically contaminated territories basing on risk analysis with use of geographic information technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yatsalo, B.I.; Demin, V.F.

    2002-01-01

    Overall questions of decision making support of the contaminated territories management on a basis of risk assessment were considered. Characteristics and possibilities of the applied geoinformation system of decision making support PRANA developed for the risk control and rehabilitation of contaminated territories are demonstrated. The PRANA system involves estimations of all fundamental characteristics of risk during analysis of results and contaminated territories management [ru

  16. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sterlacchini

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004 on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps, poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis.

    A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities. This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect

  17. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

    2007-11-01

    This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

  18. Unsupervised deep learning applied to breast density segmentation and mammographic risk scoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kallenberg, Michiel Gijsbertus J.; Petersen, Peter Kersten; Nielsen, Mads

    2016-01-01

    Mammographic risk scoring has commonly been automated by extracting a set of handcrafted features from mammograms, and relating the responses directly or indirectly to breast cancer risk. We present a method that learns a feature hierarchy from unlabeled data. When the learned features are used...... as the input to a simple classifier, two different tasks can be addressed: i) breast density segmentation, and ii) scoring of mammographic texture. The proposed model learns features at multiple scales. To control the models capacity a novel sparsity regularizer is introduced that incorporates both lifetime...... and population sparsity. We evaluated our method on three different clinical datasets. Our state-of-the-art results show that the learned breast density scores have a very strong positive relationship with manual ones, and that the learned texture scores are predictive of breast cancer. The model is easy...

  19. Environmental Risk Assessment of antimicrobials applied in veterinary medicine-A field study and laboratory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slana, Marko; Dolenc, Marija Sollner

    2013-01-01

    The fate and environmental risk of antimicrobial compounds of different groups of veterinary medicine pharmaceuticals (VMP's) have been compared. The aim was to demonstrate a correlation between the physical and chemical properties of active compounds and their metabolism in target animals, as well as their fate in the environment. In addition, the importance of techniques for manure management and agricultural practice and their influence on the fate of active compounds is discussed. The selected active compounds are shown to be susceptible to at least one environmental factor (sun, water, bacterial or fungal degradation) to which they are exposed during their life cycle, which contributes to its degradation. Degradation under a number of environmental factors has also to be considered as authentic information additional to that observed in the limited conditions in laboratory studies and in Environmental Risk Assessment calculations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Environmental risk assessment of water quality in harbor areas: a new methodology applied to European ports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, Aina G; Ondiviela, Bárbara; Puente, Araceli; Juanes, José A

    2015-05-15

    This work presents a standard and unified procedure for assessment of environmental risks at the contaminant source level in port aquatic systems. Using this method, port managers and local authorities will be able to hierarchically classify environmental hazards and proceed with the most suitable management actions. This procedure combines rigorously selected parameters and indicators to estimate the environmental risk of each contaminant source based on its probability, consequences and vulnerability. The spatio-temporal variability of multiple stressors (agents) and receptors (endpoints) is taken into account to provide accurate estimations for application of precisely defined measures. The developed methodology is tested on a wide range of different scenarios via application in six European ports. The validation process confirms its usefulness, versatility and adaptability as a management tool for port water quality in Europe and worldwide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.