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Sample records for anulus fibrosus predicted

  1. Changes with Age and the Effect of Recombinant Human BMP-2 on Proteoglycan and Collagen Gene Expression in Rabbit Anulus Fibrosus Cells

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qin-Ming FEI; Xiao-Xing JIANG; Tong-Yi CHEN; Jun LI; Hideki MURAKAMI; Kai-Jow TSAI; William C. HUTTON

    2006-01-01

    In order to compare the difference between young and old intervertebral disc cells and their responsiveness to recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2), disc cells were isolated from the anulus fibrosus (AF) and transition zones of lumbar discs from eight old and eight young New Zealand white rabbits. Compared with the cells from the young rabbits, cells from old rabbits respond less to rhBMP-2 treatment with respect to sulfated-glycosaminoglycan (sGAG) synthesis and aggrecan gene expression. But in collagen Ⅰ and collagen Ⅱ gene expressions, there are no significant differences between the old and the young. When comparing sGAG content, aggrecan, and collagen Ⅱ gene expression of the old AF cells after rhBMP-2 treatment with that of the young AF cells without rhBMP-2 treatment, the old AF cells with rhBMP-2 treatment have a greater capacity to synthesize sGAG bound in the cells and to release sGAG in the media, as well as to express aggrecan and collagen Ⅱ gene. It can be concluded that old AF cells after rhBMP-2 treatment have a greater capacity to synthesize sGAG and express aggrecan and collagen Ⅱ as compared to young AF cells without rhBMP-2 treatment. Thus rhBMP-2 can reverse the decline in the anabolic capacity of the disc cells with ageing. So it seems that rhBMP-2 has potential for use as an agent to retard a key component of disc degeneration and loss of disc matrix.

  2. Establishment of the intervertebral disc degeneration model of rabbits by using homemade puncture needles percutaneous puncturing the anulus fibrosus at surface allocation%经皮穿刺纤维环建立兔腰椎间盘退变模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄杰烽; 郑杨; 夏臣杰; 何川; 赵凯; 杜文喜; 陈俊杰; 童培建

    2016-01-01

    目的:探讨使用自制穿刺针经皮穿刺纤维环制备兔腰椎间盘退变模型的可行性。方法将18只新西兰大白兔分为实验组、假手术组及空白对照组。实验组及假手术组使用自制穿刺针穿刺L3~4、L4~5和L5~6椎间盘位置,实验组穿刺椎间盘深度为5 mm,假手术组钝性穿刺但不损伤椎间盘,空白对照组不作处理。术后3、6、9周每组取2只兔麻醉后行腰椎MRI检查,处死行大体观察并取椎间盘行HE染色及髓核蛋白多糖含量测定。结果术后3周开始实验组MRI信号强度、髓核蛋白多糖含量与其他两组相比明显下降( P<0.05),其后呈逐渐下降趋势,大体观察及HE染色显示实验组髓核及纤维环呈逐渐退变趋势。结论自制穿刺针经皮穿刺纤维环法能成功建立兔腰椎间盘退变模型,具有操作简单、损伤小、动物存活率高等优点。%Objective To establish of rabbit intervertebral disc degeneration models by using homemade puncture needles percutaneous annulus fibrosus puncture and assess the feasibility and controllability. Methods 18 New Zea-land white rabbits were divided into the experimental group, the sham group and the control group. L3~4 , L4~5 and L5~6 discs were punctured by the homemade puncture needles in the experimental group as well as in the sham group. The discs were punctured in the experimental group with a depth of 5mm. The sham group was treated by puncture without damage the discs. 2 rabbits were used to observe the anatomical structures. Two rabbits were anesthetized in 3, 6 and 9 weeks respectively after operation for MRI images. Then the animals were killed, the change of lumbar in-tervertebral discs was observed by MRI, histological and nucleus proteoglycan contents were measured. Results All animals were survived, no death, infection, paralysis and other complications. Signal intensity of the intervention group showed a progressive downtrend at 3 weeks after intervention (P<0

  3. Quantifying the contributions of structure to annulus fibrosus mechanical function using a nonlinear, anisotropic, hyperelastic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerin, Heather Lynch; Elliott, Dawn M

    2007-04-01

    The annulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc is comprised of concentric lamella of oriented collagen fibers embedded in a hydrated proteoglycan matrix with smaller amounts of minor collagens, elastin, and small proteoglycans. Its structure and composition enable the disc to withstand complex loads and result in inhomogeneous, anisotropic, and nonlinear mechanical behaviors. The specific contributions of the annulus fibrosus constituent structures to mechanical function remain unclear. Therefore, the objective of this study was to use a structurally motivated, anisotropic, nonlinear strain energy model of annulus fibrosus to determine the relative contributions of its structural components to tissue mechanical behavior. A nonlinear, orthotropic hyperelastic model was developed for the annulus fibrosus. Terms to describe fibers, matrix, and interactions between annulus fibrosus structures (shear and normal to the fiber directions) were explicitly included. The contributions of these structures were analyzed by including or removing terms and determining the effect on the fit to multidimensional experimental data. Correlation between experimental and model-predicted stress, a Bland-Altman analysis of bias and standard deviation of residuals, and the contribution of structural terms to overall tissue stress were calculated. Both shear and normal interaction terms were necessary to accurately model multidimensional behavior. Inclusion of shear interactions more accurately described annulus fibrosus nonlinearity. Fiber stretch and shear interactions dominated contributions to circumferential direction stress, while normal and shear interactions dominated axial stress. The results suggest that interactions between fibers and matrix, perhaps facilitated by crosslinks, elastin, or minor collagens, augment traditional (i.e., fiber-uncrimping) models of nonlinearity.

  4. Comparison of decellularization protocols for preparing a decellularized porcine annulus fibrosus scaffold.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiwei Xu

    Full Text Available Tissue-specific extracellular matrix plays an important role in promoting tissue regeneration and repair. We hypothesized that decellularized annular fibrosus matrix may be an appropriate scaffold for annular fibrosus tissue engineering. We aimed to determine the optimal decellularization method suitable for annular fibrosus. Annular fibrosus tissue was treated with 3 different protocols with Triton X-100, sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS and trypsin. After the decellularization process, we examined cell removal and preservation of the matrix components, microstructure and mechanical function with the treatments to determine which method is more efficient. All 3 protocols achieved decellularization; however, SDS or trypsin disturbed the structure of the annular fibrosus. All protocols maintained collagen content, but glycosaminoglycan content was lost to different degrees, with the highest content with TritonX-100 treatment. Furthermore, SDS decreased the tensile mechanical property of annular fibrosus as compared with the other 2 protocols. MTT assay revealed that the decellularized annular fibrosus was not cytotoxic. Annular fibrosus cells seeded into the scaffold showed good viability. The Triton X-100-treated annular fibrosus retained major extracellular matrix components after thorough cell removal and preserved the concentric lamellar structure and tensile mechanical properties. As well, it possessed favorable biocompatibility, so it may be a suitable candidate as a scaffold for annular fibrosus tissue engineering.

  5. Hyperelastic anisotropic microplane constitutive model for annulus fibrosus.

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    Caner, Ferhun C; Guo, Zaoyang; Moran, Brian; Bazant, Zdenek P; Carol, Ignacio

    2007-10-01

    In a recent paper, Peng et al. (2006, "An Anisotropic Hyperelastic Constitutive Model With Fiber-Matrix Interaction for the Human Annulus Fibrosis," ASME J. Appl. Mech., 73(5), pp. 815-824) developed an anisotropic hyperelastic constitutive model for the human annulus fibrosus in which fiber-matrix interaction plays a crucial role in simulating experimental observations reported in the literature. Later, Guo et al. (2006, "A Composites-Based Hyperelastic Constitutive Model for Soft Tissue With Application to the Human Fibrosis," J. Mech. Phys. Solids, 54(9), pp. 1952-1971) used fiber reinforced continuum mechanics theory to formulate a model in which the fiber-matrix interaction was simulated using only composite effect. It was shown in these studies that the classical anisotropic hyperelastic constitutive models for soft tissue, which do not account for this shear interaction, cannot accurately simulate the test data on human annulus fibrosus. In this study, we show that the microplane model for soft tissue developed by Caner and Carol (2006, "Microplane Constitutive Model and Computational Framework for Blood Vessel Tissue," ASME J. Biomech. Eng., 128(3), pp. 419-427) can be adjusted for human annulus fibrosus and the resulting model can accurately simulate the experimental observations without explicit fiber-matrix interaction because, in microplane model, the shear interaction between the individual fibers distributed in the tissue provides the required additional rigidity to explain these experimental facts. The intensity of the shear interaction between the fibers can be adjusted by adjusting the spread in the distribution while keeping the total amount of the fiber constant. A comparison of results obtained from (i) a fiber-matrix parallel coupling model, which does not account for the fiber-matrix interaction, (ii) the same model but enriched with fiber-matrix interaction, and (iii) microplane model for soft tissue adapted to annulus fibrosus with two

  6. Mechanisms for mechanical damage in the intervertebral disc annulus fibrosus.

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    Iatridis, J C James C; ap Gwynn, Iolo

    2004-08-01

    Intervertebral disc degeneration results in disorganization of the laminate structure of the annulus that may arise from mechanical microfailure. Failure mechanisms in the annulus were investigated using composite lamination theory and other analyses to calculate stresses in annulus layers, interlaminar shear stress, and the region of stress concentration around a fiber break. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to evaluate failure patterns in the annulus and evaluate novel structural features of the disc tissue. Stress concentrations in the annulus due to an isolated fiber break were localized to approximately 5 microm away from the break, and only considered a likely cause of annulus fibrosus failure (i.e., radial tears in the annulus) under extreme loading conditions or when collagen damage occurs over a relatively large region. Interlaminar shear stresses were calculated to be relatively large, to increase with layer thickness (as reported with degeneration), and were considered to be associated with propagation of circumferential tears in the annulus. SEM analysis of intervertebral disc annulus fibrosus tissue demonstrated a clear laminate structure, delamination, matrix cracking, and fiber failure. Novel structural features noted with SEM also included the presence of small tubules that appear to run along the length of collagen fibers in the annulus and a distinct collagenous structure representative of a pericellular matrix in the nucleus region.

  7. Fibre-matrix interaction in the human annulus fibrosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zaoyang; Shi, Xiaohao; Peng, Xiongqi; Caner, Ferhun

    2012-01-01

    Although the mechanical behaviour of the human annulus fibrosus has been extensively studied, the interaction between the collagen fibres and the ground matrix has not been well understood and is therefore ignored by most constitutive models. The objective of this study is to identify the significance of the fibre-matrix interaction in the human annulus fibrosus by careful investigation of the experimental data, the theoretical constitutive models, and the numerical simulation results in the literature. Based on the experimental results from biaxial and uniaxial tests, it is shown that the mechanical behaviour of the matrix can be well simulated by an incompressible neo-Hookean type model, but the effective stiffness of the matrix depends on fibre stretch ratio, which can only be explained by fibre-matrix interaction. Furthermore, we find that this interaction takes place anisotropically between the matrix and the fibres distributed in different proportions in different directions. The dependence of the tangent stiffness of the matrix on the first invariant of the deformation tensor can also be explained by this fibre orientation dispersion.

  8. Effects of cyclic tensile strain on actin cytoskeleton rearrangement in annulus fibrosus cells%周期性牵张椎间盘纤维环细胞肌动蛋白骨架的重排

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张德宏; 方鹏飞; 王兴盛; 赵继荣; 李晓娜

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND:When the intervertebral disc is under stress, the hydraulic pressure generated inside the nucleus pulposus makes the annulus fibrosus extend outward and expand, and the annulus colagen fibers are stretched so that the extracelular matrix of annulus fibrosus cels is also under the pressure. In the intervertebral disc, aggrecan is the main component of proteoglycans, matrix metaloproteinase-2 is a major enzyme for extracelular matrix degradation, and tissue inhibitor of metaloproteinase is a multifunctional specific inhibition factor for matrix metaloproteinase activity. There is a mutual regulation between the latter two to keep the homeostasis between them. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the mechanism of cyclic tensile strain in the metabolism of intervertebral disc annulus matrix. METHODS:Rat anulus fibrosus cels were subjected to 2% or 10% cyclic tensile strain at 1.0 Hz for 2 and 12 hours using Flexcel4000 tension system. Then cels were colected and cultured in conditioned medium for gene and protein detection. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to detect mRNA expression of aggrecan, matrix metaloproteinases-2 and tissue inhibitor of metaloproteinase-2. Gelatin zymography was used to detect matrix metaloproteinases-2 activity. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:The use of 2% cyclic tensile strain had no obvious effect on the stress fiber of actin cytoskeleton, whereas actin cytoskeleton was depolymerized in response to 10% cyclic tensile strain. The 2% cyclic tensile strain raised the expression of Aggrecan at 12 hours; whereas raised the matrix metaloproteinases-2 and tissue inhibitor of metaloproteinase-2 at 2 hours, both of which were in homeostasis; matrix metaloproteinases-2 activity had no significant changes. 10% cyclic tensile strain had no effect on the mRNA expression of Aggrecan. No matter stretching 2 or 12 hours, the matrix metaloproteinases-2 was up-regulated, and the tissue inhibitor of metaloproteinase-2 was down-regulated, both of which were not in

  9. Mechanical restoration and failure analyses of a hydrogel and scaffold composite strategy for annulus fibrosus repair

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Long, Rose G.; Buerki, Alexander; Zysset, Philippe; Eglin, David; Grijpma, Dirk W.; Blanquer, Sebastien B. G.; Hecht, Andrew C.; Iatridis, James C.

    2016-01-01

    Unrepaired defects in the annulus fibrosus of intervertebral disks are associated with degeneration and persistent back pain. A clinical need exists for a disk repair strategy that can seal annular defects, be easily delivered during surgical procedures, and restore biomechanics with low risk of her

  10. A combined biomaterial and cellular approach for annulus fibrosus rupture repair

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pirvu, Tatiana; Blanquer, Sebastien B. G.; Benneker, Lorin M.; Grijpma, Dirk W.; Richards, Robert G.; Alini, Mauro; Eglin, David; Grad, Sibylle; Li, Zhen

    2015-01-01

    Recurrent intervertebral disc (IVD) herniation and degenerative disc disease have been identified as the most important factors contributing to persistent pain and disability after surgical discectomy. An annulus fibrosus (AF) closure device that provides immediate closure of the AF rupture, restore

  11. An annulus fibrosus closure device based on a biodegradable shape-memory polymer network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sharifi, Shahriar; van Kooten, Theo G.; Kranenburg, Hendrik-Jan C.; Meij, Bjorn P.; Behl, Marc; Lendlein, Andreas; Grijpma, Dirk W.

    2013-01-01

    Injuries to the intervertebral disc caused by degeneration or trauma often lead to tearing of the annulus fibrosus (AF) and extrusion of the nucleus pulposus (NP). This can compress nerves and cause lower back pain. In this study, the characteristics of poly(D,L-lactide-co-trimethylene carbonate) ne

  12. Role of calcium signaling in down-regulation of aggrecan induced by cyclic tensile strain in annulus fibrosus cells

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Zhi-liang; ZHOU Yue; LI Hua-zhuang; CAO Guo-yong; TENG Hai-jun

    2006-01-01

    Objective:To study the role of intracellular calcium signal pathway in the down-regulation of aggrecan induced by cyclic tensile strain in the annulus fibrosus cells. Methods :The expression of aggrecan mRNA and core protein were respectively detected with RT-PCR and western blot after the channels transmitting calcium ions were blocked with EGTA, gadolinium and verapamil. Results:EGTA, gadolinium and verapamil partially prevented the effects of cyclic tensile strain on the expression of aggrecan in annulus fibrosus cells. Conclusion:The calcium signaling is involved in the down-regulation of proteoglycan resulting from cyclic tensile strain in the annulus fibrosus cells.

  13. Injectable, high-density collagen gels for annulus fibrosus repair: An in vitro rat tail model.

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    Borde, Brandon; Grunert, Peter; Härtl, Roger; Bonassar, Lawrence J

    2015-08-01

    A herniated intervertebral disc often causes back pain when disc tissue is displaced through a damaged annulus fibrosus. Currently, the only methods available for annulus fibrosus repair involve mechanical closure of defect, which does little to address biological healing in the damaged tissue. Collagen hydrogels are injectable and have been used to repair annulus defects in vivo. In this study, high-density collagen hydrogels at 5, 10, and 15 mg/mL were used to repair defects made to intact rat caudal intervertebral discs in vitro. A group of gels at 15 mg/mL were also cross-linked with riboflavin at 0.03 mM, 0.07 mM, or 0.10 mM. These cross-linked, high-density collagen gels maintained their presence in the defect under loading and contributed positively to the mechanical response of damaged discs. Discs exhibited increases to 95% of undamaged effective equilibrium and instantaneous moduli as well as up to fourfold decreases in effective hydraulic permeability from the damaged discs. These data suggest that high-density collagen gels may be effective at restoring mechanical function of injured discs as well as potential vehicles for the delivery of biological agents such as cells or growth factors that may aid in the repair of the annulus fibrosus.

  14. Penetrating annulus fibrosus injuries affect dynamic compressive behaviors of the intervertebral disc via altered fluid flow: an analytical interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalek, Arthur J; Iatridis, James C

    2011-08-01

    Extensive experimental work on the effects of penetrating annular injuries indicated that large injuries impact axial compressive properties of small animal intervertebral discs, yet there is some disagreement regarding the sensitivity of mechanical tests to small injury sizes. In order to understand the mechanism of injury size sensitivity, this study proposed a simple one dimensional model coupling elastic deformations in the annulus with fluid flow into and out of the nucleus through both porous boundaries and through a penetrating annular injury. The model was evaluated numerically in dynamic compression with parameters obtained by fitting the solution to experimental stress-relaxation data. The model predicted low sensitivity of mechanical changes to injury diameter at both small and large sizes (as measured by low and high ratios of injury diameter to annulus thickness), with a narrow range of high sensitivity in between. The size at which axial mechanics were most sensitive to injury size (i.e., critical injury size) increased with loading frequency. This study provides a quantitative hypothetical model of how penetrating annulus fibrosus injuries in discs with a gelatinous nucleus pulposus may alter disc mechanics by changing nucleus pulposus fluid pressurization through introduction of a new fluid transport pathway though the annulus. This model also explains how puncture-induced biomechanical changes depend on both injury size and test protocol.

  15. An annulus fibrosus closure device based on a biodegradable shape-memory polymer network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifi, Shahriar; van Kooten, Theo G; Kranenburg, Hendrik-Jan C; Meij, Björn P; Behl, Marc; Lendlein, Andreas; Grijpma, Dirk W

    2013-11-01

    Injuries to the intervertebral disc caused by degeneration or trauma often lead to tearing of the annulus fibrosus (AF) and extrusion of the nucleus pulposus (NP). This can compress nerves and cause lower back pain. In this study, the characteristics of poly(D,L-lactide-co-trimethylene carbonate) networks with shape-memory properties have been evaluated in order to prepare biodegradable AF closure devices that can be implanted minimally invasively. Four different macromers with (D,L-lactide) to trimethylene carbonate (DLLA:TMC) molar ratios of 80:20, 70:30, 60:40 and 40:60 with terminal methacrylate groups and molecular weights of approximately 30 kg mol(-1) were used to prepare the networks by photo-crosslinking. The mechanical properties of the samples and their shape-memory properties were determined at temperatures of 0 °C and 40 °C by tensile tests- and cyclic, thermo-mechanical measurements. At 40 °C all networks showed rubber-like behavior and were flexible with elastic modulus values of 1.7-2.5 MPa, which is in the range of the modulus values of human annulus fibrosus tissue. The shape-memory characteristics of the networks were excellent with values of the shape-fixity and the shape-recovery ratio higher than 98 and 95%, respectively. The switching temperatures were between 10 and 39 °C. In vitro culture and qualitative immunocytochemistry of human annulus fibrosus cells on shape-memory films with DLLA:TMC molar ratios of 60:40 showed very good ability of the networks to support the adhesion and growth of human AF cells. When the polymer network films were coated by adsorption of fibronectin, cell attachment, cell spreading, and extracellular matrix production was further improved. Annulus fibrosus closure devices were prepared from these AF cell-compatible materials by photo-polymerizing the reactive precursors in a mold. Insertion of the multifunctional implant in the disc of a cadaveric canine spine showed that these shape-memory devices could be

  16. Targeting the annulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc: Col1a2-Cre(ER)T mice show specific activity of Cre recombinase in the outer annulus fibrosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedore, Jake; Quesnel, Katherine; Quinonez, Diana; Séguin, Cheryle A; Leask, Andrew

    2016-06-01

    Degeneration of the intervertebral disc (IVD) is a major underlying contributor to back pain-the single leading cause of disability worldwide. However, we possess a limited understanding of the etiology underlying IVD degeneration. To date, there are a limited number of mouse models that have been used to target proteins in specific compartments of the IVD to explore their functions in disc development, homeostasis and disease. Furthermore, the majority of reports exploring the composition and function of the outer encapsulating annulus fibrosus (AF) of the IVD have considered it as one tissue, without considering the numerous structural and functional differences existing between the inner and outer AF. In addition, no mouse models have yet been reported that enable specific targeting of genes within the outer AF. In the current report, we discuss these issues and demonstrate the localized activity of Cre recombinase in the IVD of Col1a2-Cre(ER)T;ROSA26mTmG mice possessing a tamoxifen-dependent Cre recombinase driven by a Cola2 promoter and distal enhancer and the mTmG fluorescent reporter. Following tamoxifen injection of 3-week-old Col1a2-Cre(ER)T;ROSA26mTmG mice, we show Cre activity specifically in the outer AF of the IVD, as indicated by expression of the GFP reporter. Thus, Col1a2-Cre(ER)T;ROSA26mTmG mice may prove to be a valuable tool in delineating the function of proteins in this unique compartment of the IVD, and in further exploring the compositional differences between the inner and outer AF in disc homeostasis, aging and disease.

  17. Photobiomodulation on human annulus fibrosus cells during the intervertebral disk degeneration: extracellular matrix-modifying enzymes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Min Ho; Kim, Kyoung Soo; Yoo, Chang Min; Shin, Jae Hee; Nam, Hyo Geun; Jeong, Jin Su; Kim, Joo Han; Lee, Kwang Ho; Choi, Hyuk

    2016-05-01

    Destruction of extracellular matrix (ECM) leads to degeneration of the intervertebral disk (IVD), which is a major contributor to many spine disorders. IVD degeneration is induced by pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin-1 beta (IL-1β), which are secreted by immune cells, including macrophages and neutrophils. The cytokines modulate ECM-modifying enzymes such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMPs) in human annulus fibrosus (AF) cells. The resulting imbalance in catabolic and anabolic enzymes can cause generalized back, neck, and low back pain (LBP). Photobiomodulation (PBM) is known to regulate inflammatory responses and wound healing. The aim of this study was to mimic the degenerative IVD microenvironment, and to investigate the effect of a variety of PBM conditions (wavelength: 635, 525, and 470 nm; energy density: 16, 32, and 64 J/cm(2)) on the production of ECM-modifying-enzymes by AF cells under degenerative conditions induced by macrophage-conditioned medium (MCM), which contains pro-inflammatory cytokines such as TNF-α and IL-β secreted by macrophage during the development of intervertebral disk inflammation. We showed that the MCM-stimulated AF cells express imbalanced ratios of TIMPs (TIMP-1 and TIMP-2) and MMPs (MMP-1 and MMP-3). PBM selectively modulated the production of ECM-modifying enzymes in AF cells. These results suggest that PBM can be a therapeutic tool for degenerative IVD disorders.

  18. Mechanics of oriented electrospun nanofibrous scaffolds for annulus fibrosus tissue engineering.

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    Nerurkar, Nandan L; Elliott, Dawn M; Mauck, Robert L

    2007-08-01

    Engineering a functional replacement for the annulus fibrosus (AF) of the intervertebral disc is contingent upon recapitulation of AF structure, composition, and mechanical properties. In this study, we propose a new paradigm for AF tissue engineering that focuses on the reconstitution of anatomic fiber architecture and uses constitutive modeling to evaluate construct function. A modified electrospinning technique was utilized to generate aligned nanofibrous polymer scaffolds for engineering the basic functional unit of the AF, a single lamella. Scaffolds were tested in uniaxial tension at multiple fiber orientations, demonstrating a nonlinear dependence of modulus on fiber angle that mimicked the nonlinearity and anisotropy of native AF. A homogenization model previously applied to native AF successfully described scaffold mechanical response, and parametric studies demonstrated that nonfibrillar matrix, along with fiber connectivity, are key contributors to tensile mechanics for engineered AF. We demonstrated that AF cells orient themselves along the aligned scaffolds and deposit matrix that contributes to construct mechanics under loading conditions relevant to the in vivo environment. The homogenization model was applied to cell-seeded constructs and provided quantitative measures for the evolution of matrix and interfibrillar interactions. Finally, the model demonstrated that at fiber angles of the AF (28 degrees -44 degrees ), engineered material behaved much like native tissue, suggesting that engineered constructs replicate the physiologic behavior of the single AF lamella. Constitutive modeling provides a powerful tool for analysis of engineered AF neo-tissue and native AF tissue alike, highlighting key mechanical design criteria for functional AF tissue engineering.

  19. Collagen fibrillogenesis in the development of the annulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc.

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    Hayes, Anthony J; Isaacs, Marc D; Hughes, C; Caterson, B; Ralphs, J R

    2011-10-11

    The annulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc is a complex, radial-ply connective tissue consisting of concentric lamellae of oriented collagen. Whilst much is known of the structure of the mature annulus, less is known of how its complex collagenous architecture becomes established; an understanding of which could inform future repair/regenerative strategies. Here, using a rat disc developmental series, we describe events in the establishment of the collagenous framework of the annulus at light and electron microscopic levels and examine the involvement of class I and II small leucine rich proteoglycans (SLRPs) in the matrix assembly process. We show that a period of sustained, ordered matrix deposition follows the initial cellular differentiation/orientation phase within the foetal disc. Fibrillar matrix is deposited from recesses within the plasma membrane into compartments of interstitial space within the outer annulus - the orientation of the secreted collagen reflecting the initial cellular orientation of the laminae. Medially, we demonstrate the development of a reinforcing 'cage' of collagen fibre bundles around the foetal nucleus pulpous. This derives from the fusion of collagen bundles between presumptive end-plate and inner annulus. By birth, the distinct collagenous architectures are established and the disc undergoes considerable enlargement to maturity. We show that fibromodulin plays a prominent role in foetal development of the annulus and its attachment to vertebral bodies. With the exception of keratocan, the other SLRPs appear associated more with cartilage development within the vertebral column, but all become more prominent within the disc during its growth and differentiation.

  20. Biaxial testing of canine annulus fibrosus tissue under changing salt concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques M. Huyghe

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The in vivo mechanics of the annulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc is one of biaxial rather than uniaxial loading. The material properties of the annulus are intimately linked to the osmolarity in the tissue. This paper presents biaxial relaxation experiments of canine annulus fibrosus tissue under stepwise changes of external salt concentration. The force tracings show that stresses are strongly dependent on time, salt concentration and orientation. The force tracing signature of are sponse to a change instrain, is one of a jumpin stress that relaxes partly as the new strain is maintained. The force tracing signature of a stepwise change in salt concentration is a progressive monotonous change in stress towards a new equilibrium value. Although the number of samples does not allow any definitive quantitative conclusions, the trends may shed light on the complex interaction among the directionality of forces, strains and fiber orientation on one hand, and on the other hand, the osmolarity of the tissue. The dual response to a change in strain is understood as an immediate response before fluid flows in or out of the tissue, followed by a progressive readjustment of the fluid content in time because of the gradient in fluid chemical potential between the tissue and the surrounding solution.A mecânica in vivo do anel fibroso do disco intervertebral é baseada em carregamento biaxial ao invés de uniaxial. As propriedades materiais do anel estão intimamente ligadas à osmolaridade no tecido. O artigo apresenta experimentos de relaxação biaxiais do anel fibroso de um tecido canino sob mudanças abruptas na concentração externa de sal. A assinatura da força devido à mudança brusca de salinidade resulta em uma progressiva e monótona mudança na tensão em direção a um novo valor de equilíbrio. Embora o número de amostras não permita nenhuma conclusão quantitativa, as tendências podem abrir uma luz no entendimento das intera

  1. Collagen fibrillogenesis in the development of the annulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AJ Hayes

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The annulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc is a complex, radial-ply connective tissue consisting of concentric lamellae of oriented collagen. Whilst much is known of the structure of the mature annulus, less is known of how its complex collagenous architecture becomes established; an understanding of which could inform future repair/regenerative strategies. Here, using a rat disc developmental series, we describe events in the establishment of the collagenous framework of the annulus at light and electron microscopic levels and examine the involvement of class I and II small leucine rich proteoglycans (SLRPs in the matrix assembly process. We show that a period of sustained, ordered matrix deposition follows the initial cellular differentiation/orientation phase within the foetal disc. Fibrillar matrix is deposited from recesses within the plasma membrane into compartments of interstitial space within the outer annulus – the orientation of the secreted collagen reflecting the initial cellular orientation of the laminae. Medially, we demonstrate the development of a reinforcing ‘cage’ of collagen fibre bundles around the foetal nucleus pulpous. This derives from the fusion of collagen bundles between presumptive end-plate and inner annulus. By birth, the distinct collagenous architectures are established and the disc undergoes considerable enlargement to maturity. We show that fibromodulin plays a prominent role in foetal development of the annulus and its attachment to vertebral bodies. With the exception of keratocan, the other SLRPs appear associated more with cartilage development within the vertebral column, but all become more prominent within the disc during its growth and differentiation.

  2. A novel culture platform for fast proliferation of human annulus fibrosus cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Li; Ding, Mengmeng; Saadoon, Osama; Vess, Eric; Fernandez, Andrew; Zhao, Ping; Jin, Li; Li, Xudong

    2017-02-01

    Tissue engineering provides a promising approach to treat degenerative disc disease, which usually requires a large quantity of seed cells. A simple and reliable in vitro culture system to expand seed cells in a timely fashion is necessary to implement the application clinically. Here, we sought to establish a cost-effective culture system for expanding human annulus fibrosus cells using extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins as culture substrates. Cells were cultured onto a plastic surface coated with various types of ECMs, including fibronectin, vitronectin, collagen type I, gelatin and cell-free matrix deposited by human nucleus pulposus cells. AF cell morphology, growth, adhesion and phenotype (anabolic and catabolic markers) were assessed by microscopy, real-time RT-PCR, western blotting, zymography, immunofluorescence staining and biochemical assays. Fibronectin, collagen and gelatin promoted cell proliferation and adhesion in a dose-dependent manner. Fibronectin elevated mRNA expression of proteoglycan and enhanced glycosaminoglycan production. Both collagen and gelatin increased protein expression of type II collagen. Consistent with increased cell adhesion, collagen and fibronectin promoted formation of focal adhesion complexes in the cell-matrix junction, suggesting enhanced binding of the actin network with both ECM substrates. On the other hand, fibronectin, collagen and gelatin decreased expression of matrix metalloproteinase-2 and matrix metalloproteinase-9 in media. Finally, a mixture of fibronectin (1.7 μg/mL) and collagen (1.3 μg/mL) was identified as the most promising in vitro culture substrate system in promoting proliferation and maintaining anabolic-catabolic balance. Our method provides a simple and cost-effective platform for tissue engineering applications in intervertebral disc research.

  3. INTERLEUKIN-6 PROTECTS ANNULUS FIBROSUS CELL FROM APOPTOSIS INDUCED BY INTERLEUKIN-1 IN VITRO

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Objective To investigate the effect of interleukin-6 (IL-6) on the apoptosis of annulus fibrosus (AF) cell induced by interleukin-1 β (IL-1 β).Methods Cultured AF cells were divided into 6 groups and treated with no drug, 10 ng/mL IL-6, 10 ng/mL IL1β, 10 ng/mL IL-1β and Z-VAD-FMK (a caspase-9 inhibitor), 10 ng/mL IL-1β and 10 ng/mL IL-6, 10 ng/mL IL-1β and 100 ng/mL IL-6, respectively. After three days of culture, the apoptosis rate, the positive rates of caspase3, -8, and -9 of AF cells were detected with flow cytometry.Results The apoptosis rates of cells in group 1 to 6 were 2. 67%±1.08%, 2.71%±0.53%, 20.37%±1.57%, 11.34%±0.67%, 18.17%±0.74%, and 9.42%±1.08%, respectively. There was no significant difference between group 1 and 2, while the apoptosis rates of group 4, 5, and 6 were significantly lower than group 3 (P=0.001, P=0.172, and P=0.001, respectively). Positive rates of caspase-3 in group 5 (12.35%± 0.64%) and 6(9.26%±0.36%) were significantly lower than group 3 (17.14%±0.72%; P=0.001 and P<0.001, respectively). And positive rates of caspase-9 in group 5 (15.13%±1.45%) and 6 (10.17%±2.50%) were significantly lower than group 3 (19.4%±0.98%;P=0.014 and P=0.004, respectively). But there was not obvious change of caspase-8 activity after IL-6 was added.Conclusion IL-6 is capable of protecting AF cells from IL-1 β induced apoptosis in vitro. Mechanism of the protection is related with the inhibition of caspase-3 and -9 activities.

  4. Fibrin-genipin annulus fibrosus sealant as a delivery system for anti-TNFα drug

    Science.gov (United States)

    Likhitpanichkul, Morakot; Kim, Yesul; Torre, Olivia M; See, Eugene; Kazezian, Zepur; Pandit, Abhay; Hecht, Andrew C

    2015-01-01

    Background context Intervertebral discs (IVD) are attractive targets for local drug delivery because they are avascular structures with limited transport. Painful IVDs are in a chronic inflammatory state. While anti-inflammatories show poor performance in clinical trials their efficacy treating IVD cells suggests that sustained, local drug delivery directly to painful IVDs may be beneficial. Purpose To determine if genipin crosslinked fibrin (FibGen) with collagen type I hollow spheres (CHS) can serve as a drug delivery carrier for the anti-TNFα drug, infliximab. Infliximab was chosen as a model drug because of the known role of TNFα in increasing downstream production of several pro-inflammatory cytokines and pain mediators. FibGen was used as drug carrier because it is adhesive injectable, slowly degrading hydrogel with potential to seal annulus fibrosus (AF) defects. CHS allow simple and non-damaging drug loading and could act as a drug reservoir to improve sustained delivery. Study Design/Setting Biomaterials and human AF cell culture study to determine drug release kinetics and efficacy. Methods Infliximab was delivered at low and high concentrations using FibGen with and without CHS. Gels were analyzed for structure, drug release kinetics, and efficacy treating human AF cells following release. This work was funded by grants from the NIAMS/NIH (R01 AR057397), AO Foundation, and from the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Results Fibrin showed rapid infliximab drug release but degraded quickly. CHS alone showed a sustained release profile but the small spheres may not remain in a degenerated IVD with fissures. FibGen showed steady and low levels of infliximab release that was increased when loaded with higher drug concentrations. Infliximab was bound in CHS when delivered within FibGen and was only released following enzymatic degradation. The infliximab released over 20 days retained its bioactivity as confirmed by the sustained reduction of IL-1

  5. Structure and mechanical function of the inter-lamellar matrix of the annulus fibrosus in the disc.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavakoli, Javad; Elliott, Dawn M; Costi, John J

    2016-08-01

    The inter-lamellar matrix (ILM) has an average thickness of less than 30 µm and lies between adjacent lamellae in the annulus fibrosus (AF). The microstructure and composition of the ILM have been studied in various anatomic regions of the disc; however, their contribution to AF mechanical properties and structural integrity is unknown. It was suggested that the ILM components, mainly elastic fibers and cross-bridges, play a role in providing mechanical integrity of the AF. Therefore, the manner in which they respond to different loadings and stabilize adjacent lamellae structure will influence AF tear formation and subsequent herniation. This review paper summarizes the composition, microstructure, and potential role of the ILM in the progression of disc herniation, clarifies the micromechanical properties of the ILM, and proposes critical areas for future studies. There are a number of unknown characteristics of the ILM, such as its mechanical role, impact on AF integrity, and ultrastructure of elastic fibers at the ILM-lamella boundary. Determining these characteristics will provide important information for tissue engineering, repair strategies, and the development of more-physiological computational models to study the initiation and propagation of AF tears that lead to herniation and degeneration. © 2016 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 34:1307-1315, 2016.

  6. Characterization of mechanics and cytocompatibility of fibrin-genipin annulus fibrosus sealant with the addition of cell adhesion molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guterl, Clare C; Torre, Olivia M; Purmessur, Devina; Dave, Khyati; Likhitpanichkul, Morakot; Hecht, Andrew C; Nicoll, Steven B; Iatridis, James C

    2014-09-01

    There is an unmet clinical need for a biomaterial sealant capable of repairing small annulus fibrosus (AF) defects. Causes of these defects include painful intervertebral disc herniations, microdiscectomy procedures, morbidity associated with needle puncture injury from discography, and future nucleus replacement procedures. This study describes the enhancements of a fibrin gel through genipin crosslinking (FibGen) and the addition of the cell adhesion molecules (CAMs), fibronectin and collagen. The gel's performance as a potential AF sealant is assessed using a series of in vitro tests. FibGen gels with CAMs had equivalent adhesive strength, gene expression, cytomorphology, and cell proliferation as fibrin alone. However, FibGen gels had enhanced material behaviors that were tunable to higher shear stiffness values and approximated human annulus tissue as compared with fibrin alone, were more dimensionally stable, and had a slower in vitro degradation rate. Cytomorphology of human AF cells cultured on FibGen gels exhibited increased elongation compared with fibrin alone, and the addition of CAMs to FibGen did not significantly affect elongation. This FibGen gel offers the promise of being used as a sealant material to repair small AF defects or to be used in combination with other biomaterials as an adhesive for larger defects.

  7. A comparison between porcine, ovine, and bovine intervertebral disc anatomy and single lamella annulus fibrosus tensile properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaco, Lauren A; DeWitte-Orr, Stephanie J; Gregory, Diane E

    2016-02-01

    This project aimed to compare gross anatomical measures and biomechanical properties of single lamellae from the annulus fibrosus of ovine and porcine lumbar vertebrae, and bovine tail vertebrae. The morphology of the vertebrae of these species differ significantly both from each other and from human, yet how these differences alter biomechanical properties is unknown. Geometric parameters measured in this study included: 1) absolute and relative intervertebral (IVD) and vertebral body height and 2) absolute and relative intervertebral disc (IVD) anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) widths. Single lamella tensile properties included toe-region stress and stretch ratio, stiffness, and tensile strength. As expected, the bovine tail IVD revealed a more circular shape compared with both the ovine and porcine lumbar IVD. The bovine tail also had the largest IVD to vertebral body height ratio (due to having the highest absolute IVD height). Bovine tail lamellae were also found to be strongest and stiffest (in tension) while ovine lumbar lamellae were weakest and most compliant. Histological analysis revealed the greatest proportion of collagen in the bovine corroborating findings of increased strength and stiffness. The observed differences in anatomical shape, connective tissue composition, and tensile properties need to be considered when choosing an appropriate model for IVD research.

  8. Comparison of phenotype characteristics of rat annulus fibrosus cells cultured on flexible silicone membrane and in plastic plate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Zhi-liang; CHENG Min; CAO Guo-yong; LI Hua-zhuang; TENG Hai-jun; ZHOU Yue

    2006-01-01

    Objective:To compare the phenotype characteristics of rat annulus fibrosus (AF) cells cultured on flexible silicone membranes and those in plastic plates. Methods :The morphology of AF cells cultured in different substrates was examined. Proteoglycan was stained by toluidine blue. Contents of collagen type I , collagen type Ⅱ and aggrecan mRNAs were determined by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The expression of integrin β1 was monitored by flow cytometry. By using propidium iodide (PI), the cell cycle in AF cells was analyzed. Cell adhesion to silicone membrane was also measured. Results:The AF cells cultured on different substrates were morphologically undistinguishable.Toluidine blue staining showed that there was also no difference between AF cells cultured on these 2 substrates. They still had the same expression levels of collagen type Ⅰ , collagen type Ⅱ , aggrecan mRNAs,and integrin β1. No significant difference was observed in the distribution of the cell cycle. AF cells grew well on silicone membrane. Conclusion:AF cells cultured on flexible silicone membrane maintain the stability of phenotype and may be appropriate for further studying the metabolic responses to mechanical stimuli at the cellular level.

  9. Protective effect of niacinamide on interleukin-1beta-induced annulus fibrosus type II collagen degeneration in vitro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Deyu; Yang, Shuhua; Shao, Zengwu; Wang, Hong; Xiong, Xiaoqian

    2007-02-01

    The protective effect of niacinamide on interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta)-induced annulus fibrosus (AF) type II collagen degeneration in vitro and the mechanism were investigated. Chiba's intervertebral disc (IVD) culture models in rabbits were established and 48 IVDs from 12 adult Japanese white rabbits were randomly divided into 4 groups: normal control group, niacinamide-treated group, type II collagen degneration group (IL-1beta) and treatment group (niacinamide+IL-1beta). After culture for one week, AFs were collected for inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), cysteine containing aspartate specific protease-3 (Caspase-3) and type II collagen immunohistochemical examination, and type II collagen reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The results showed that rate of iNOS positive staining AF cells in the 4 groups was 17.6%, 10.9%, 73.9% and 19.3% respectively. The positive rate in treatment group was significantly lower than in the type II collagen degeneration group (Pniacinamide could effectively inhibit IL-1beta stimulated increase of iNOS and Caspase-3 in AF, and alleviate IL-1beta-caused destruction and synthesis inhibition of type II collagen. Niacinamide is of potential for clinical treatment of IVD degeneration.

  10. Beta1 integrin inhibits apoptosis induced by cyclic stretch in annulus fibrosus cells via ERK1/2 MAPK pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Ding, Wei; Sun, Wei; Sun, Xiao-jiang; Xie, You-zhuan; Zhao, Chang-qing; Zhao, Jie

    2016-01-01

    Low back pain is associated with intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD) due to cellular loss through apoptosis. Mechanical factors play an important role in maintaining the survival of the annulus fibrosus (AF) cells and the deposition of extracellular matrix. However, the mechanisms that excessive mechanical forces lead to AF cell apoptosis are not clear. The present study was to look for how AF cells sense mechanical changes. In vivo experiments, the involvement of mechanoreceptors in apoptosis was examined by RT-PCR and/or immunoblotting in the lumbar spine of rats subjected to unbalanced dynamic and static forces. In vitro experiments, we investigated apoptotic signaling pathways in untransfected and transfected AF cells with the lentivirus vector for rat β1 integrin overexpression after cyclic stretch. Apoptosis in AF cells was assessed using flow cytometry, Hoechst 33258 nuclear staining. Western blotting was used to analyze expression of β1 integrin and caspase-3 and ERK1/2 MAPK signaling molecules. In the rat IVDD model, unbalanced dynamic and static forces induced apoptosis of disc cells, which corresponded to decreased expression of β1 integrin. Cyclic stretch-induced apoptosis in rat AF cells correlated with the activation of caspase-3 and with decreased levels of β1 integrin and the phosphorylation levels of ERK1/2 activation level. However, the overexpression of β1 integrin in AF cells ameliorated cyclic stretch-induced apoptosis and decreased caspase-3 activation. Furthermore, ERK1/2-specific inhibitor promotes apoptosis in vector β1-infected AF cells. These results suggest that the disruption of β1 integrin signaling may underlie disc cell apoptosis induced by mechanical stress. Further work is necessary to fully elucidate the pathophysiological mechanisms that underlie IVDD caused by unbalanced dynamic and static forces.

  11. Formation of lamellar cross bridges in the annulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc is a consequence of vascular regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lachlan J; Elliott, Dawn M

    2011-05-01

    Cross bridges are radial structures within the highly organized lamellar structure of the annulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc that connect two or more non-consecutive lamellae. Their origin and function are unknown. During fetal development, blood vessels penetrate deep within the AF and recede during postnatal growth. We hypothesized that cross bridges are the pathways left by these receding blood vessels. Initially, the presence of cross bridges was confirmed in cadaveric human discs aged 25 and 53 years. Next, L1-L2 intervertebral discs (n=4) from sheep ranging in age from 75 days fetal gestation to adult were processed for paraffin histology. Mid-sagittal sections were immunostained for endothelial cell marker PECAM-1. The anterior and posterior AF were imaged using differential interference contrast microscopy, and the following parameters were quantified: total number of distinct lamellae, total number of cross bridges, percentage of cross bridges staining positive for PECAM-1, cross bridge penetration depth (% total lamellae), and PECAM-1 positive cross bridge penetration depth. Cross bridges were first observed at 100 days fetal gestation. The overall number peaked in neonates then remained relatively unchanged. The percentage of PECAM-1 positive cross bridges declined progressively from almost 100% at 100 days gestation to less than 10% in adults. Cross bridge penetration depth peaked in neonates then remained unchanged at subsequent ages. Depth of PECAM-1 positive cross bridges decreased progressively after birth. Findings were similar for both the anterior and posterior. The AF lamellar architecture is established early in development. It later becomes disrupted as a consequence of vascularization. Blood vessels then recede, perhaps due to increasing mechanical stresses in the surrounding matrix. In this study we present evidence that the pathways left by receding blood vessels remain as lamellar cross bridges. It is unclear whether the presence

  12. Protective Effect of Niacinamide on interleukin-1β-induced Annulus Fibrosus Type Ⅱ Collagen Degeneration in vitro

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DUAN Deyu; YANG Shuhua; SHAO Zengwu; WANG Hong; XIONG Xiaoqian

    2007-01-01

    The protective effect of niacinamide on interleukin-1β (IL-1β)-induced annulus fibrosus (AF) type Ⅱ collagen degeneration in vitro and the mechanism were investigated. Chiba's intervertebrai disc (IVD) culture models in rabbits were established and 48 IVDs from 12 adult Japanese white rabbits were randomly divided into 4 groups: normal control group, niacinamide-treated group, type Ⅱ collagen degneration group (IL-1β) and treatment group (niacinamide+IL-1β). After culture for one week, AFs were collected for inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), cysteine containing aspartate specific protease-3 (Caspase-3) and type Ⅱ collagen immunohistochemical examination, and type Ⅱ collagen reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The results showed that rate of iNOS positive staining AF cells in the 4 groups was 17.6%, 10.9%, 73.9% and 19.3% respectively. The positive rate in treatment group was significantly lower than in the type Ⅱ collagen degeneration group (P<0.01). Rate of Caspase-3 positive staining AF cells in the 4 groups was 3.4%, 4.2%, 17.6% and 10.3% respectively. The positive rate in treatment group was lower than in the type Ⅱ collagen degeneration group (P<0.01). Type Ⅱ collagen staining demonstrated that lamellar structure and continuity of collagen in treatment group was better reversed than in the degeneration group. RT-PCR revealed that the expression of type Ⅱ collagen in treatment group was significantly stronger than that in type Ⅱ collagen degeneration group (P<0.01). It was concluded that niacinamide could effectively inhibit IL-1β stimulated increase of iNOS and Caspase-3 in AF, and alleviate IL-1β-caused destruction and synthesis inhibition of type Ⅱ collagen. Niacinamide is of potential for clinical treatment of IVD degeneration.

  13. Do mechanical strain and TNF-α interact to amplify pro-inflammatory cytokine production in human annulus fibrosus cells?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Likhitpanichkul, Morakot; Torre, Olivia M; Gruen, Jadry; Walter, Benjamin A; Hecht, Andrew C; Iatridis, James C

    2016-05-03

    During intervertebral disc (IVD) injury and degeneration, annulus fibrosus (AF) cells experience large mechanical strains in a pro-inflammatory milieu. We hypothesized that TNF-α, an initiator of IVD inflammation, modifies AF cell mechanobiology via cytoskeletal changes, and interacts with mechanical strain to enhance pro-inflammatory cytokine production. Human AF cells (N=5, Thompson grades 2-4) were stretched uniaxially on collagen-I coated chambers to 0%, 5% (physiological) or 15% (pathologic) strains at 0.5Hz for 24h under hypoxic conditions with or without TNF-α (10ng/mL). AF cells were treated with anti-TNF-α and anti-IL-6. ELISA assessed IL-1β, IL-6, and IL-8 production and immunocytochemistry measured F-actin, vinculin and α-tubulin in AF cells. TNF-α significantly increased AF cell pro-inflammatory cytokine production compared to basal conditions (IL-1β:2.0±1.4-84.0±77.3, IL-6:10.6±9.9-280.9±214.1, IL-8:23.9±26.0-5125.1±4170.8pg/ml for basal and TNF-α treatment, respectively) as expected, but mechanical strain did not. Pathologic strain in combination with TNF-α increased IL-1β, and IL-8 but not IL-6 production of AF cells. TNF-α treatment altered F-actin and α-tubulin in AF cells, suggestive of altered cytoskeletal stiffness. Anti-TNF-α (infliximab) significantly inhibited pro-inflammatory cytokine production while anti-IL-6 (atlizumab) did not. In conclusion, TNF-α altered AF cell mechanobiology with cytoskeletal remodeling that potentially sensitized AF cells to mechanical strain and increased TNF-α-induced pro-inflammatory cytokine production. Results suggest an interaction between TNF-α and mechanical strain and future mechanistic studies are required to validate these observations.

  14. Three-dimensional development of tensile pre-strained annulus fibrosus cells for tissue regeneration: An in-vitro study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chuah, Yon Jin [School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637459 (Singapore); Lee, Wu Chean [University Hospital Conventry & Warwickshire NHS Trust, Clifford Bridge Road, West Midlands CV2, 2DX (United Kingdom); Wong, Hee Kit [Department of Orthopedic Surgery, National University Health System, NUHS Tower Block Level 11, 1E Kent Ridge Road, Singapore 119228 (Singapore); Kang, Yuejun, E-mail: yuejun.kang@ntu.edu.sg [School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637459 (Singapore); Hee, Hwan Tak, E-mail: HTHee@ntu.edu.sg [School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637459 (Singapore); Pinnacle Spine & Scoliosis Centre, 3 Mount Elizabeth, Mount Elizabeth Medical Centre, #04-07, Singapore 228510 (Singapore); School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637459 (Singapore)

    2015-02-01

    Prior research has investigated the immediate response after application of tensile strain on annulus fibrosus (AF) cells for the past decade. Although mechanical strain can produce either catabolic or anabolic consequences to the cell monolayer, little is known on how to translate these findings into further tissue engineering applications. Till to date, the application and effect of tensile pre-strained cells to construct a three-dimensional (3D) AF tissue remains unknown. This study aims to investigate the effect of tensile pre-strained exposure of 1 to 24 h on the development of AF pellet culture for 3 weeks. Equibiaxial cyclic tensile strain was applied on AF monolayer cells over a period of 24 h, which was subsequently developed into a cell pellet. Investigation on cellular proliferation, phenotypic gene expression, and histological changes revealed that tensile pre-strain for 24 h had significant and lasting effect on the AF tissue development, with enhanced cell proliferation, and up-regulation of collagen type I, II, and aggrecan expression. Our results demonstrated the regenerative ability of AF cell pellets subjected to 24 h tensile pre-straining. Knowledge on the effects of tensile pre-strain exposure is necessary to optimize AF development for tissue reconstruction. Moreover, the tensile pre-strained cells may further be utilized in either cell therapy to treat mild disc degeneration disease, or the development of a disc construct for total disc replacement. - Highlights: • Establishment of tensile pre-strained cell line population for annulus development. • Tensile strain limits collagen gene expression declination in monolayer culture. • Tensile pre-strained cells up-regulate their matrix protein in 3D pellet culture.

  15. The dura gide to annulus fibrosus closurement%人工生物膜修复椎间盘纤维环的研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丁文元; 申勇; 郭金库; 贺延雷; 吴海龙; 曹来震; 李鹏飞

    2010-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the repair efficiency of dura gide to intervertebral disc annulus fibrosus defect. Methods Totallly 24 lumbar intervertebral discs of 8 sheep underwent one of the following 3 methods: (1) the disc annulus fibrosus was exposed through retroperitoneal approach without any farther procedure; (2) the disc annulus fibrosus was exposed and a defect was made, and then the defect was repaired with dura gide; (3) the disc annulus fibrosus was exposed and a defect was made as control. At the 12th week after surgery, 15 discs of 5 sheep underwent pressure-volume testing to assess the competency of the annulus fibrosus. MRI images and decalcified histology were performed on the remaining 9 discs of 3sheep. Results At the 12th week, the mean max-pressure in expose-only, excise-only and dura gide-reparied group was (4. 92 ±0. 17), (2. 48 ±0.39) and (3.76 ± 1.56) MPa, respectively. Both the competency in excised-only and dura gide-repaired groups was lower than in exposed-only group. The competency in dura gide-repaired groups was higher than in excise-only group ( P < 0. 05 ). MRI images and histology indicated that dura gide-repaired specimens were integrated well with the disc annulus fibrosus collagen.Conclusion There was a repair efficiency of dura gide to intervertebral disc annulus fibrosus defect. The mean competency recovery rate was 76.4%.%目的 用不同方法处理椎间盘纤维环,观察人工生物膜对椎间盘纤维环缺损的修复作用.方法 成年山羊8只,雌雄各4只,对每只羊的腰椎(腰2/3、腰3/4、腰4/5)椎间盘纤维环进行随机处理,处理方法包括:(1)暴露出椎间盘纤维环,不作任何处理;(2)暴露出椎间盘纤维环后,将其切开,用人下生物膜填充缺口;(3)暴露出椎间盘纤维环,尖刀将其切开,作为对照组.12周后,通过生物力学测试、核磁共振(MRI)及脱钙病理切片染色观察椎间盘纤维环的修复效果.结果 12周后,测试纤维环承受最

  16. Biaxial mechanics and inter-lamellar shearing of stem-cell seeded electrospun angle-ply laminates for annulus fibrosus tissue engineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Tristan P; Nakasone, Ryan H; Szczesny, Spencer E; Elliott, Dawn M; Mauck, Robert L

    2013-06-01

    The annulus fibrosus (AF) of the intervertebral disk plays a critical role in vertebral load transmission that is heavily dependent on the microscale structure and composition of the tissue. With degeneration, both structure and composition are compromised, resulting in a loss of AF mechanical function. Numerous tissue engineering strategies have addressed the issue of AF degeneration, but few have focused on recapitulation of AF microstructure and function. One approach that allows for generation of engineered AF with appropriate (+/-)30° lamellar microstructure is the use of aligned electrospun scaffolds seeded with mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) and assembled into angle-ply laminates (APL). Previous work indicates that opposing lamellar orientation is necessary for development of near native uniaxial tensile properties. However, most native AF tensile loads are applied biaxially, as the disk is subjected to multi-axial loads and is constrained by its attachments to the vertebral bodies. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the biaxial mechanical response of engineered AF bilayers, and to determine the importance of opposing lamellar structure under this loading regime. Opposing bilayers, which replicate native AF structure, showed a significantly higher modulus in both testing directions compared to parallel bilayers, and reached ∼60% of native AF biaxial properties. Associated with this increase in biaxial properties, significantly less shear, and significantly higher stretch in the fiber direction, was observed. These results provide additional insight into native tissue structure-function relationships, as well as new benchmarks for engineering functional AF tissue constructs.

  17. The effect of the fibre orientation of electrospun scaffolds on the matrix production of rabbit annulus fibrosus-derived stem cells

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Liu; Caihong Zhu; Jun Li; Pinghui Zhou; Min Chen; Huilin Yang; Bin Li

    2015-01-01

    Annulus fibrosus (AF) tissue engineering has recently received increasing attention as a treatment for intervertebral disc (IVD) degeneration;however, such engineering remains challenging because of the remarkable complexity of AF tissue. In order to engineer a functional AF replacement, the fabrication of cell-scaffold constructs that mimic the cellular, biochemical and structural features of native AF tissue is critical. In this study, we fabricated aligned fibrous polyurethane scaffolds using an electrospinning technique and used them for culturing AF-derived stem/progenitor cells (AFSCs). Random fibrous scaffolds, also prepared via electrospinning, were used as a control. We compared the morphology, proliferation, gene expression and matrix production of AFSCs on aligned scaffolds and random scaffolds. There was no apparent difference in the attachment or proliferation of cells cultured on aligned scaffolds and random scaffolds. However, compared to cells on random scaffolds, the AFSCs on aligned scaffolds were more elongated and better aligned, and they exhibited higher gene expression and matrix production of collagen-I and aggrecan. The gene expression and protein production of collagen-II did not appear to differ between the two groups. Together, these findings indicate that aligned fibrous scaffolds may provide a favourable microenvironment for the differentiation of AFSCs into cells similar to outer AF cells, which predominantly produce collagen-I matrix.

  18. 组织工程椎间盘纤维环:如何更接近于天然%How to build a tissue-engineered intervertebral disc annulus fibrosus that is more close to the natural one?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    袁德超; 陈竹; 冯大雄; 冯刚

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND:Tissue-engineered intervertebral disc has provided a new biological therapeutic approach for intervertebral disc degeneration. Tissue-engineered annulus fibrosus is one key step of constructing a complete tissue-engineered intervertebral disc. OBJECTIVE:To sum up the research progress of tissue-engineered annulus fibrosus from the folowing aspects: structural features, scaffold materials, seed cels. METHODS:PubMed database and Wanfang database (2000-2015) were retrieved by the key words of “tissue engineering, intervertebral disc, annulus fibrosus, seed cel, scaffold, construction” in Chinese and in English, respectively. According to inclusion and exclusion criteria, 48 literatures were involved for summarization. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Previous studies about tissue-engineered annulus fibrosus only focused on cel adhesion, proliferation and extracelular matrix secretion on the scaffold. Currently, tissue-engineered annulus fibrosus exhibit similar features to the natural annulus fibrosus in the folowing aspects: cel function, tissue structure and mechanical features, and relevant animal experiments have achieved certain results in animal experiments. However, it is stil difficult to build a tissue-engineered annulus fibrosus entirely similar to the natural one, and we need to further improve scaffold materials, culture conditions, colection of seed cels. The current strategies of annulus fibrosus construction stil focus on single phase of scaffold, and the biphasic scaffold and complete intervertebral disc scaffold wil be the trend of the researches. Technology of induced differentiation of stem cels provides a broach source of seed cels for tissue-engineered annulus fibrosus.%背景:组织工程椎间盘为椎间盘退行性变疾病的生物治疗提供了新的方法,组织工程纤维环是构建组织工程椎间盘的关键之一。目的:从纤维环结构特点、材料支架、种子细胞3方面,归纳总结组织工程纤维环

  19. Fibrin-genipin adhesive hydrogel for annulus fibrosus repair: performance evaluation with large animal organ culture, in situ biomechanics, and in vivo degradation tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Likhitpanichkul

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Annulus fibrosus (AF defects from annular tears, herniation, and discectomy procedures are associated with painful conditions and accelerated intervertebral disc (IVD degeneration. Currently, no effective treatments exist to repair AF damage, restore IVD biomechanics and promote tissue regeneration. An injectable fibrin-genipin adhesive hydrogel (Fib-Gen was evaluated for its performance repairing large AF defects in a bovine caudal IVD model using ex vivo organ culture and biomechanical testing of motion segments, and for its in vivo longevity and biocompatibility in a rat model by subcutaneous implantation. Fib-Gen sealed AF defects, prevented IVD height loss, and remained well-integrated with native AF tissue following approximately 14,000 cycles of compression in 6-day organ culture experiments. Fib-Gen repair also retained high viability of native AF cells near the repair site, reduced nitric oxide released to the media, and showed evidence of AF cell migration into the gel. Biomechanically, Fib-Gen fully restored compressive stiffness to intact levels validating organ culture findings. However, only partial restoration of tensile and torsional stiffness was obtained, suggesting opportunities to enhance this formulation. Subcutaneous implantation results, when compared with the literature, suggested Fib-Gen exhibited similar biocompatibility behaviour to fibrin alone but degraded much more slowly. We conclude that injectable Fib-Gen successfully sealed large AF defects, promoted functional restoration with improved motion segment biomechanics, and served as a biocompatible adhesive biomaterial that had greatly enhanced in vivo longevity compared to fibrin. Fib-Gen offers promise for AF repairs that may prevent painful conditions and accelerated degeneration of the IVD, and warrants further material development and evaluation.

  20. The transmembrane heparan sulphate proteoglycan syndecan-4 is involved in establishment of the lamellar structure of the annulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckett, M C; Ralphs, J R; Caterson, B; Hayes, A J

    2015-08-14

    The annulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc unites adjacent vertebral bodies along the length of the spine and provides tensile resistance towards compressive, twisting and bending movements arising through gait. It consists of a nested series of oriented collagenous lamellae, arranged in cross-ply circumferentially around the nucleus pulposus. The organisation of oriented collagen in the annulus is established during foetal development by an identical arrangement of oriented fibroblasts that are precisely organised into cell sheets, or laminae. These provide a template for ordered deposition of extracellular matrix material on cell surfaces, by means of a poorly understood mechanism involving the actin cytoskeleton. In this study, we investigate the role of two cell surface heparan sulphate proteoglycans (HSPGs), glypican-6 and syndecan-4, in the matrix assembly process in the developmental rat intervertebral disc. We compare their expression patterns with those of heparan sulphate and the interactive, cell-surface adhesive glycoprotein, fibronectin, and relate these to the stage-specific collagenous architectures present within the annulus at both light and electron microscopic levels. We show that both proteoglycans are strongly associated with the development, growth and aging of the intervertebral disc. Furthermore, the immunohistochemical labelling patterns suggest that syndecan-4, in particular, plays a potentially-significant role in annulus formation. We propose that this HSPG mediates interaction between the actin cytoskeleton and nascent extracellular matrix in the lamellar organisation of annulus tissue. These data add considerably towards an understanding of how cells organise and maintain complex, oriented extracellular matrices and has particular clinical relevance to the fields of tissue engineering and repair.

  1. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  2. 羊纤维环部分缺损动物模型的构建%Establishment of annulus fibrosus partial defect model in sheep

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    袁秋明; 马信龙; 徐宝山; 杨强; 刘越; 姜洪丰; 张杨; 杜立龙; 祁霁舟; 赵家宁

    2016-01-01

    目的:建立可用于椎间盘缺损修复研究的纤维环部分缺损动物模型。方法使用image J 1.46r软件测量5根羊脊柱X线片T12/L1~L6/S1椎间隙高度,轴向剖开T12/L1~L6/S1椎间盘,测量拟作缺损处纤维环厚度,使用11号尖刀在3根离体羊脊柱T12/L1~L5/6椎间盘左前方制作上底3 mm、下底5 mm、高5 mm、厚3 mm,下底朝向髓核的梯形缺损,上述羊脊柱均取自1岁龄绵羊。采用微创外侧手术入路在2只1岁龄绵羊T12/L1~L5/6椎间盘左前方制作相同规格的梯形缺损。通过轴向剖开椎间盘测量梯形缺损的边长、对切取的纤维环和少量髓核称质量,以此评估所制作的椎间盘梯形缺损。结果绵羊腰椎间隙高度为(4.45±0.28)mm,拟作缺损处纤维环厚度为(4.08±0.50) mm,分别与拟作梯形缺损的厚度(3 mm)和高度(5 mm)差异有统计学意义(P0.05);从离体和在体的羊腰椎间盘梯形缺损处取出的纤维环及髓核质量分别为(0.162±0.011)g和(0.166±0.014)g,两者差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论通过微创外侧手术入路,使用实验中制作梯形缺损的方法可以简单、安全、可靠地制作出符合要求、能用于椎间盘缺损修复研究的羊纤维环部分缺损的动物模型。%Objective To establish an animal model of annulus fibrosus (AF) partial defect for the repairing of interver⁃tebral disc (IVD) defect. Methods Image J 1.46r software was used to measure the T12/L1-L6/S1 intervertebral height in ovine lumbar spine X-ray films. AF thickness was measured by axial split disc. A 11 blade was used to make a trapezoid de⁃fect of upper bottom 3 mm, lower bottom 5 mm, height 5 mm and thickness 3 mm, whose lower bottom toward the nucleus pulposus (NP) in the left front of ovine lumbar IVD in vitro. The minimally invasive lateral approach was used to make the same type of trapezoid defect in the left front of the ovine lumbar IVD in

  3. FABRICATION AND ANALYSIS OF A NOVEL TISSUE ENGINEERED COMPOSITE BIPHASIC SCAFFOLD FOR ANNULUS FIBROSUS AND NUCLEUS PULPOSUS%新型一体化纤维环-髓核双相支架的制备与评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许海委; 徐宝山; 杨强; 李秀兰; 马信龙; 夏群; 张春秋; 伍耀宏

    2013-01-01

    Objective To fabricate a novel composite scaffold with acellular demineralized bone matrix/acellular nucleus pulposus matrix and to verify the feasibility of using it as a scaffold for intervertebral disc tissue engineering through detecting physical and chemical properties. Methods Pig proximal femoral cancellous bone rings (10 mm in external diameter, 5 mm in internal diameter, and 3 mm in thickness) were fabricated, and were dealed with degreasing, decalcification, and decellularization to prepare the annulus fibrosus phase of scaffold. Nucleus pulposus was taken from pig tails, decellularized with Triton X-100 and deoxycholic acid, crushed and centrifugalized to prepare nucleus pulposus extracellular mtrtix which was injected into the center of annulus fibrosus phase. Then the composite scaffold was freeze-dryed, cross-linked with ultraviolet radiation/carbodiimide and disinfected for use. The scaffold was investigated by general observation, HE staining, and scanning electron microscopy, as well as porosity measurement, water absorption rate, and compressive elastic modulus. Adipose-derived stem cells (ADSCs) were cultured with different concentrations of scaffold extract (25%, 50%, and 100%) to assess cytotoxicity of the scaffold. The cell viability of ADSCs seeded on the scaffold was detected by Live/Dead staining. Results The scaffold was white by general observation. The HE staining revealed that there was no cell fragments on the scaffold, and the dye homogeneously distributed. The scanning electron microscopy showed that the pore of the annulus fibrosus phase interconnected and the pore size was uniform; acellular nucleus pulposus matrix microfilament interconnected forming a uniform network structure, and the junction of the scaffold was closely connected. The novel porous scaffold had a good pore interconnectivity with (343.00 ± 88.25) urn pore diameter of the annulus fibrosus phase, 82.98% ± 7.02% porosity and 621.53% ± 53.31% water absorption rate

  4. Study of building an integrated annulus fibrosus-nucleus pulposus biphasic scaffold based on bone matrix gelatin and cartilage matrix%以骨基质明胶及软骨基质构建一体化纤维环-髓核双相支架的实验研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    伍耀宏; 徐宝山; 杨强; 马信龙; 夏群; 李秀兰; 胡永成; 张杨; 张春秋

    2013-01-01

    Objective To fabricate an integrated annulus fibrosus-nucleus pulposus biphasic scaffolds based on bone matrix gelatin and acellular cartilage matrix,and to detect its property and cell compatibility.Methods An integrated annulus fibrosus-nucleus pulposus biphasic scaffold was fabricated by the following steps: preparing the hollow bone matrix gelatin ring,injecting the acellular cartilage homogenate into the center of the bone matrix gelatin ring,and freeze drying.Sample slices were stained with Hoechst 33258,picrosirius and HE.The internal structure of the scaffold was observed under a scanning electron microscope.The porosity and water absorption of the scaffold were also evaluated.Compressive mechanical property under wet situation was tested.The annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus cells were isolated from sheep disc and separately implanted into the corresponding sites of the scaffold,and biocompatibility of the scaffold was evaluated by scanning electron microscope and live/dead cell staining.Results Hoechst 33258 staining showed no residual cells,picrosirius staining was positive,and HE staining showed two parts linked closely.Under scanning electron microscope,the scaffold had porous structure,and the average pore size was 401.4±13.1 μm for annulus fibrosus,and 112.4±21.8 μm for nucleus pulposus.The porosity and water absorption of the scaffold was 73.37%±2.56% and 655.7%±78.6%,respectively.The average compressive elastic modulus of the scaffold (49.06 ±15.57) kpa was smaller than that of the native disc (135.9±28.9) kPa.Scanning electron microscope showed cells adhered on the scaffold surface,with secreted matrix around them,and live/dead cells staining showed cells with good activity on scaffolds.Conclusion The integrated annulus fibrosus-nucleus pulposus scaffold based on bone matrix gelatin and cartilage matrix is an ideal artificial disc material,in view of well pore size,closely linked boundary,and good biocompatibility.%目的 以

  5. Comparison of transcatheter laser and direct-current shock ablation of endocardium near tricuspid anulus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu-Zhen; Wang, Shi-Wen; Li, Junheng

    1993-03-01

    Forty to eighty percent of the patients with accessory pathways (APs) manifest themselves by tachyarrhythmias. Many of these patients needed either life-long medical therapy or surgery. In order to avoid the discomfort and expenses in surgical procedures, closed chest percutaneous catheter ablation of APs became a potentially desirable therapeutic approach. Many investigations indicated that ablation of right APs by transcatheter direct current (dc) shock could cause life-threatening arrhythmias, right coronary arterical (RCA) spasm, etc. With the development of transcatheter laser technique, it has been used in drug-incurable arrhythmias. The results show that laser ablation is much safer than surgery and electric shock therapy. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness, advantages, and complications with transcatheter Nd:YAG laser and dc shock in the ablation of right atrioventricular accessory pathways in the atrium near the tricuspid annulus (TA) in 20 dogs.

  6. 来源于长管状骨的组织工程纤维环支架的理化特性及细胞生物学相容性研究%Study of physicochemical characteristics and biocompatibility of a novel tissue engineering annulus fibrosus scaffold derived from long bone

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    伍耀宏; 徐宝山; 杨强; 李秀兰; 张杨; 马信龙; 夏群; 闫中胜; 许海委

    2013-01-01

    , immunofluorescence staining of collagen type Ⅰ, Sirius red staining, SEM observation, pore diameter measurement, biomechanics test. The toxicity of leaching liquor from scaffolds was assessed by MTT assay, annulus fibrosus (AF) cells were isolated from goat and pass down to P1, and AF cells were seeded onto scaffolds with a syringe, cell - scaffold hybrids were assessed by LIVE / DEAD staining, scanning electron microscope ( SEM) and HE staining after 48 h cultrue in vitro. [ Results] The scaffold showed smooth and white surface under the gross observation, no residual cells were observed by Hoechst 33258 and HE staining, sirius red staining showed deep red staining scaffold. Immunofluorescence staining positive for collagen type Ⅰ, pores evenly distributed and connected in scaffolds with a average pore size of (401. 4 ± 13. 1) μm under the SEM, and the average compressive elastic modulus of integrated scaffold was 47. 75±6. 32kPa. MTT assay demonstrated no significant difference among the groups ( P > 0. 05) , LIVE/DEAD cells staining showed cells with good activity, SEM and HE staining showed cell adhesion on the stent scaffold surface and filamentous secretion surrounded cells. [ Conclusion ] The hollow ring scaffold decellularized thoroughly, has good pore structure and non -toxicity and good biocompatibility, shares similar mechanical property and composition with annulus fibrosus, therefore, it is a suitable candidate as an alternative cell - carrier for annulus fibrosus tissue engineering.

  7. Predicting future of predictive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Piyush, Duggal

    2014-01-01

    With enormous growth in analytical data and insight about advantage of managing future brings Predictive Analysis in picture. It really has potential to be called one of efficient and competitive technologies that give an edge to business operations. The possibility to predict future market conditions and to know customers’ needs and behavior in advance is the area of interest of every organization. Other areas of interest may be maintenance prediction where we tend to predict when and where ...

  8. CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES IN THE REPAIR OF RUPTURED ANNULUS FIBROSUS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guterl, Clare C.; See, Eugene Y.; Blanquer, Sebastien B. G.; Pandit, Abhay; Ferguson, Stephen J.; Benneker, Lorin M.; Grijpma, Dirk W.; Sakai, Daisuke; Eglin, David; Alini, Mauro; Iatridis, James C.; Grad, Sibylle

    2013-01-01

    Lumbar discectomy is the surgical procedure most frequently performed for patients suffering from low back pain and sciatica. Disc herniation as a consequence of degenerative or traumatic processes is commonly encountered as the underlying cause for the painful condition. While discectomy provides f

  9. Predictive medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenink, Marianne; Have, ten Henk

    2015-01-01

    In the last part of the twentieth century, predictive medicine has gained currency as an important ideal in biomedical research and health care. Research in the genetic and molecular basis of disease suggested that the insights gained might be used to develop tests that predict the future health sta

  10. Effects of loading frequency on matrix synthesis of annulus fibrosus cells in an intervertebral disc perfusion culture system%椎间盘灌注培养条件下压应力频率对纤维环细胞基质合成的影响

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李培; 甘翼搏; 徐源; 李松涛; 宋磊; 周强

    2015-01-01

    目的:观察压应力频率对椎间盘纤维环(AF)细胞基质合成的影响.方法:获取4~6月龄巴马香猪胸腰段椎间盘72个后,随机分为无应力对照组和应力组(分别为0.1Hz组、0.5Hz组、1Hz组、3Hz组、5Hz组),每组12个样本,将各组椎间盘置于生物反应器中进行灌注培养.无应力对照组不施加应力刺激,各应力组每天施加对应频率的应力刺激2h.灌注培养5d后分离全层纤维环组织行HE染色、阿利新蓝染色、胞外基质基因Ag鄄grecan、Collagen Ⅰ、Collagen Ⅱ定量PCR、糖胺多糖(GAG)含量和羟脯氨酸(HYP)含量的检测.结果:培养5d后,各组纤维环组织仍保持天然的层状叠加结构.与对照组比较时,除5Hz组外其他应力组(0.1Hz、0.5Hz、1Hz、3Hz)纤维环组织阿利新蓝染色强度增强、各胞外基质基因的表达得到维持(0.1Hz)或上调(0.5Hz、1Hz、3Hz)、GAG和HYP的含量也维持在同等水平(0.1Hz)或显著升高(0.5Hz、1Hz、3Hz).然而各应力组组间比较时,5Hz组纤维环组织阿利新蓝染色强度、胞外基质基因的表达水平及GAG 和HYP 的含量比其他应力组(0.1Hz、0.5Hz、1Hz、3Hz)都下调(P<0.05).结论:椎间盘体外灌注培养条件下,压应力刺激频率影响纤维环细胞的基质合成,低频率(0.1~3Hz)的应力刺激增加基质合成,高频率(5Hz)的应力刺激减少基质合成.%Objectives: To investigate the effects of loading frequency on matrix synthesis of annulus fibrosus (AF) cells.Methods: Discs from porcine (4-6 months old) were isolated and randomly divided into control group (no loading) and loading groups(0.1Hz,0.5Hz,1Hz,3Hz and 5Hz group,respectively).All discs were put in tissue culture chamber for perfusion culturing.No loading was applied to the discs in the control group while different loading frequencies(0.1Hz,0.5Hz,1 Hz,3Hz and 5Hz,respectively) were applied to the discs in the loading groups.After culturing for 5 days,the full-thickness AF tissues were

  11. Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...

  12. [Anatomical and functional aspects of the thoracic and lumbar spine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graichen, H; Putz, R

    1999-05-01

    The vertebral bodies and vertebral arches show a characteristic distribution of cortical and cancellous bone. The pedicles are loaded by uniplanar bending that is reflected by the arrangement of the Corticalis. The ligaments of the vertebral column consist of longitudinal and (with exception of the lig. longitudinal anterius) horizontal/oblique segmental ligament bundles. In combination with the anulus fibrosus, the ligaments work as a kind of gear system. They regulate the process of movements of adjacent vertebral bodies in a very precise manner and control the final phase of motion. Besides maintaining the necessary amount of pretension the intervertebral disc distributes the loads uniformly onto the adjacent vertebral bodies. The intervertebral joints are important for guided motion, by restricting the extent in specific planes and directions. Because of their position, they are able to take up the shear forces and to simultaneously restrict them in different planes. The integrity of the fascia thoracolumbalis warrants the protective function of the autochthonuos muscles.

  13. [Intradural lumbar disk hernia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Bartolomé, P; Canga, A; Vázquez-Barquero, A; García-Valtuille, R; Abascal, F; Cerezal, L

    2001-04-01

    Intradural disc herniation is a rare complication of degenerative disc disease. A correct diagnosis of this process is frequently difficult. If this entity is not preoperatively diagnosed and is omitted at surgery, severe neurologic sequels may be provoked. We report a case of a pathologically proven intradural disc herniation preoperatively diagnosed by MR imaging. Clinically, it was manifested by sudden onset of right leg ciatalgia and progressive right lower extremity weakness. The patient also referred a one-month history of sexual dysfunction. MR imaging revealed interruption of the low signal of the anulus fibrosus and of the posterior longitudinal ligament at L2-L3 level and a voluminous disc fragment migrated in the dural sac that showed rim enhancement with gadolinium.The clinical, neuroradiological, and surgical management of lumbar intradural disc herniation are reviewed.

  14. Diagnostics and therapy of spinal disc herniation; Diagnostik und Therapie des Bandscheibenvorfalls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zimmer, A.; Reith, W. [Universitaetsklinikum des Saarlandes, Klinik fuer Diagnostische und Interventionelle Neuroradiologie, Homburg/Saar (Germany)

    2014-11-15

    Degenerative processes in a movement segment of the vertebral column, which can potentially give rise to herniation of elements of the nucleus pulposus, are complex and of variable clinical and radiological dimensions; however the mere assumption that degenerative changes precede disc herniation remains a matter of debate. By definition, spinal disc herniation (SDH) refers to components of the gelatinous nucleus pulposus protruding beyond the dorsal level of the vertebral body margin through tears in the annulus fibrosus. Clinical presentation may include pain, paresis and sensory disturbances. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is considered the gold standard in the diagnosis of SDH. In the majority of patients a conservative approach with physical therapy exercises and adequate analgesic and antiphlogistic medical treatment results in a substantial improvement of symptoms. (orig.) [German] Degenerative Prozesse eines Bewegungssegments, die in einem Prolaps des Nucleus pulposus resultieren koennen, sind vielschichtig und von unterschiedlicher klinischer und radiologischer Auspraegung. Selbst die Annahme, dass Bandscheibenvorfaellen eine Degeneration vorangeht, ist keineswegs unumstritten. Definitionsgemaess spricht man von einem Bandscheibenvorfall (BSV), wenn das Gewebe des gelatinoesen Nucleus pulposus durch eine Dehiszenz im Anulus fibrosus ueber das Niveau der normalen dorsalen Begrenzung des Bandscheibenfachs hinaus prolabiert. Klinisch kann dies mit Schmerzen, Paresen und Sensibilitaetsstoerungen einhergehen. Die Magnetresonanztomographie gilt als Goldstandard in der Diagnostik eines BSV. In der Mehrzahl der Faelle fuehrt ein konservatives Vorgehen zu einer deutlichen Besserung der Symptomatik im Verlauf. (orig.)

  15. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  16. Genomic Prediction in Barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Cericola, Fabio; Jensen, Jens D;

    Genomic prediction uses markers (SNPs) across the whole genome to predict individual breeding values at an early growth stage potentially before large scale phenotyping. One of the applications of genomic prediction in plant breeding is to identify the best individual candidate lines to contribut...

  17. Genomic Prediction in Barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Cericola, Fabio; Jensen, Jens D;

    2015-01-01

    Genomic prediction uses markers (SNPs) across the whole genome to predict individual breeding values at an early growth stage potentially before large scale phenotyping. One of the applications of genomic prediction in plant breeding is to identify the best individual candidate lines to contribut...

  18. Applied predictive control

    CERN Document Server

    Sunan, Huang; Heng, Lee Tong

    2002-01-01

    The presence of considerable time delays in the dynamics of many industrial processes, leading to difficult problems in the associated closed-loop control systems, is a well-recognized phenomenon. The performance achievable in conventional feedback control systems can be significantly degraded if an industrial process has a relatively large time delay compared with the dominant time constant. Under these circumstances, advanced predictive control is necessary to improve the performance of the control system significantly. The book is a focused treatment of the subject matter, including the fundamentals and some state-of-the-art developments in the field of predictive control. Three main schemes for advanced predictive control are addressed in this book: • Smith Predictive Control; • Generalised Predictive Control; • a form of predictive control based on Finite Spectrum Assignment. A substantial part of the book addresses application issues in predictive control, providing several interesting case studie...

  19. Predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  20. Predictability of conversation partners

    CERN Document Server

    Takaguchi, Taro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo; Masuda, Naoki

    2011-01-01

    Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, Song et al. (2010) found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one's conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one's next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between close sensor nodes. We find t...

  1. Distribution Free Prediction Bands

    CERN Document Server

    Lei, Jing

    2012-01-01

    We study distribution free, nonparametric prediction bands with a special focus on their finite sample behavior. First we investigate and develop different notions of finite sample coverage guarantees. Then we give a new prediction band estimator by combining the idea of "conformal prediction" (Vovk et al. 2009) with nonparametric conditional density estimation. The proposed estimator, called COPS (Conformal Optimized Prediction Set), always has finite sample guarantee in a stronger sense than the original conformal prediction estimator. Under regularity conditions the estimator converges to an oracle band at a minimax optimal rate. A fast approximation algorithm and a data driven method for selecting the bandwidth are developed. The method is illustrated first in simulated data. Then, an application shows that the proposed method gives desirable prediction intervals in an automatic way, as compared to the classical linear regression modeling.

  2. Predictability of Conversation Partners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaguchi, Taro; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo; Masuda, Naoki

    2011-08-01

    Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song , ScienceSCIEAS0036-8075 327, 1018 (2010)] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one’s conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one’s next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual’s predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community—in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles—tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

  3. Solar Cycle Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

  4. Is Time Predictability Quantifiable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoeberl, Martin

    2012-01-01

    -case execution time. To compare different approaches we would like to quantify time predictability. That means we need to measure time predictability. In this paper we discuss the different approaches for these measurements and conclude that time predictability is practically not quantifiable. We can only......Computer architects and researchers in the realtime domain start to investigate processors and architectures optimized for real-time systems. Optimized for real-time systems means time predictable, i.e., architectures where it is possible to statically derive a tight bound of the worst...... compare the worst-case execution time bounds of different architectures....

  5. Predicting protein structure classes from function predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, I.; Rahnenfuhrer, J.; de Lichtenberg, Ulrik;

    2004-01-01

    We introduce a new approach to using the information contained in sequence-to-function prediction data in order to recognize protein template classes, a critical step in predicting protein structure. The data on which our method is based comprise probabilities of functional categories; for given...... query sequences these probabilities are obtained by a neural net that has previously been trained on a variety of functionally important features. On a training set of sequences we assess the relevance of individual functional categories for identifying a given structural family. Using a combination...... of the most relevant categories, the likelihood of a query sequence to belong to a specific family can be estimated. Results: The performance of the method is evaluated using cross-validation. For a fixed structural family and for every sequence, a score is calculated that measures the evidence for family...

  6. 'Red Flag' Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Andersen, Torben Juul; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

    -generation prediction markets and outline its unique features as a third-generation prediction market. It is argued that frontline employees gain deep insights when they execute operational activities on an ongoing basis in the organization. The experiential learning from close interaction with internal and external...

  7. Improved nonlinear prediction method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adenan, Nur Hamiza; Md Noorani, Mohd Salmi

    2014-06-01

    The analysis and prediction of time series data have been addressed by researchers. Many techniques have been developed to be applied in various areas, such as weather forecasting, financial markets and hydrological phenomena involving data that are contaminated by noise. Therefore, various techniques to improve the method have been introduced to analyze and predict time series data. In respect of the importance of analysis and the accuracy of the prediction result, a study was undertaken to test the effectiveness of the improved nonlinear prediction method for data that contain noise. The improved nonlinear prediction method involves the formation of composite serial data based on the successive differences of the time series. Then, the phase space reconstruction was performed on the composite data (one-dimensional) to reconstruct a number of space dimensions. Finally the local linear approximation method was employed to make a prediction based on the phase space. This improved method was tested with data series Logistics that contain 0%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 30% of noise. The results show that by using the improved method, the predictions were found to be in close agreement with the observed ones. The correlation coefficient was close to one when the improved method was applied on data with up to 10% noise. Thus, an improvement to analyze data with noise without involving any noise reduction method was introduced to predict the time series data.

  8. Predicting AD conversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yawu; Mattila, Jussi; Ruiz, Miguel �ngel Mu�oz

    2013-01-01

    To compare the accuracies of predicting AD conversion by using a decision support system (PredictAD tool) and current research criteria of prodromal AD as identified by combinations of episodic memory impairment of hippocampal type and visual assessment of medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) on MRI...

  9. The Prediction Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, M.; Kurz, S.; Lindner, I.; Napel, S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations

  10. Prediction by Compression

    CERN Document Server

    Ratsaby, Joel

    2010-01-01

    It is well known that text compression can be achieved by predicting the next symbol in the stream of text data based on the history seen up to the current symbol. The better the prediction the more skewed the conditional probability distribution of the next symbol and the shorter the codeword that needs to be assigned to represent this next symbol. What about the opposite direction ? suppose we have a black box that can compress text stream. Can it be used to predict the next symbol in the stream ? We introduce a criterion based on the length of the compressed data and use it to predict the next symbol. We examine empirically the prediction error rate and its dependency on some compression parameters.

  11. Structural prediction in aphasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tessa Warren

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable evidence that young healthy comprehenders predict the structure of upcoming material, and that their processing is facilitated when they encounter material matching those predictions (e.g., Staub & Clifton, 2006; Yoshida, Dickey & Sturt, 2013. However, less is known about structural prediction in aphasia. There is evidence that lexical prediction may be spared in aphasia (Dickey et al., 2014; Love & Webb, 1977; cf. Mack et al, 2013. However, predictive mechanisms supporting facilitated lexical access may not necessarily support structural facilitation. Given that many people with aphasia (PWA exhibit syntactic deficits (e.g. Goodglass, 1993, PWA with such impairments may not engage in structural prediction. However, recent evidence suggests that some PWA may indeed predict upcoming structure (Hanne, Burchert, De Bleser, & Vashishth, 2015. Hanne et al. tracked the eyes of PWA (n=8 with sentence-comprehension deficits while they listened to reversible subject-verb-object (SVO and object-verb-subject (OVS sentences in German, in a sentence-picture matching task. Hanne et al. manipulated case and number marking to disambiguate the sentences’ structure. Gazes to an OVS or SVO picture during the unfolding of a sentence were assumed to indicate prediction of the structure congruent with that picture. According to this measure, the PWA’s structural prediction was impaired compared to controls, but they did successfully predict upcoming structure when morphosyntactic cues were strong and unambiguous. Hanne et al.’s visual-world evidence is suggestive, but their forced-choice sentence-picture matching task places tight constraints on possible structural predictions. Clearer evidence of structural prediction would come from paradigms where the content of upcoming material is not as constrained. The current study used self-paced reading study to examine structural prediction among PWA in less constrained contexts. PWA (n=17 who

  12. Pathology and possible mechanisms of nervous system response to disc degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisby, Helena

    2006-04-01

    Degeneration of the intervertebral disc is clinically considered to be an important source of pain in patients with low-back pain. Disc deterioration and/or degeneration may influence the nervous system by stimulation of nociceptors in the anulus fibrosus, causing nociceptive pain that is often referred to as discogenic pain. The stimulation of the nociceptors may be of mechanical or inflammatory origin. Deterioration of a disc with loss of normal structure and weight-bearing properties may lead to abnormal motions that cause mechanical stimulation. This theory is supported by the fact that patients commonly experience an increase in pain with weight-bearing and certain movements. In addition, an ingrowth of vessels and nerve fibers into deeper layers of the anulus fibrosus has been observed in degenerated discs. A large number of inflammatory and signaling substances, such as tumor necrosis factor and interleukins (interleukin-1beta, interleukin-6, and interleukin-8), may also play a role in the development of back pain. Independent of stimulus of the nociceptors, the pain impulses are conducted through myelinated A delta fibers and unmyelinated C fibers to the dorsal root ganglion and continue by way of the spinothalamic tract to the thalamus and the somatosensory cortex. In response to stimulation of the nociceptors in the disc, the somatosensory system may increase its sensitivity, resulting in a nonfunctional response; that is, normally innocuous stimuli may generate an amplified response (peripheral sensitization). When disc degeneration leads to a disc herniation, the adjacent nervous system structures, such as the nerve roots or the dorsal root ganglion, can be affected, causing neuropathic pain of mechanical or biochemical origin. Disc deterioration also influences other spinal structures, such as facet joints, ligaments, and muscles, which can also become pain generators. Thus, disc degeneration may be responsible for the development of chronic low

  13. Evolution prediction from tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominy, Jason M.; Venuti, Lorenzo Campos; Shabani, Alireza; Lidar, Daniel A.

    2017-03-01

    Quantum process tomography provides a means of measuring the evolution operator for a system at a fixed measurement time t. The problem of using that tomographic snapshot to predict the evolution operator at other times is generally ill-posed since there are, in general, infinitely many distinct and compatible solutions. We describe the prediction, in some "maximal ignorance" sense, of the evolution of a quantum system based on knowledge only of the evolution operator for finitely many times 0evolution at times away from the measurement times. Even if the original evolution is unitary, the predicted evolution is described by a non-unitary, completely positive map.

  14. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  15. Wind Power Prediction Investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanlong Liu

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Daily and real-time forecast data of wind power is predicted in this study using three methods, which are Kalman filter model, GARCH model and time-series-based BP neural network model. Then, owing to evaluation to the calculation of accuracy and qualification rate, the best method, the time-series-based BP neural network model, was selected for its highest accuracy. Moreover, the prediction error influence due to convergence of wind turbine is on consideration according to the evaluation. Finally, suggestions of improving the prediction accuracy were put forward based on the discussion of accuracy-obstacle factors.

  16. Chapter VII. Predicting Fertility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Section 2. Visual and Microscopic Approaches for Differentiating Unfertilized Germinal Discs and Early dead Embryos from Pre-Incubated Blastoderms Section 3. Predicting the Duration of fertility by Counting Sperm in the Outer Perivitelline Layer of Laid Eggs...

  17. Outcome predictability biases learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Oren; Mitchell, Chris J; Bethmont, Anna; Lovibond, Peter F

    2015-01-01

    Much of contemporary associative learning research is focused on understanding how and when the associative history of cues affects later learning about those cues. Very little work has investigated the effects of the associative history of outcomes on human learning. Three experiments extended the "learned irrelevance" paradigm from the animal conditioning literature to examine the influence of an outcome's prior predictability on subsequent learning of relationships between cues and that outcome. All 3 experiments found evidence for the idea that learning is biased by the prior predictability of the outcome. Previously predictable outcomes were readily associated with novel predictive cues, whereas previously unpredictable outcomes were more readily associated with novel nonpredictive cues. This finding highlights the importance of considering the associative history of outcomes, as well as cues, when interpreting multistage designs. Associative and cognitive explanations of this certainty matching effect are discussed.

  18. Predicting toxicity of nanoparticles

    OpenAIRE

    BURELLO ENRICO; Worth, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    A statistical model based on a quantitative structure–activity relationship accurately predicts the cytotoxicity of various metal oxide nanoparticles, thus offering a way to rapidly screen nanomaterials and prioritize testing.

  19. Highlights, predictions, and changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeang, Kuan-Teh

    2012-11-15

    Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding "hot" retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  20. Predictable grammatical constructions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucas, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    My aim in this paper is to provide evidence from diachronic linguistics for the view that some predictable units are entrenched in grammar and consequently in human cognition, in a way that makes them functionally and structurally equal to nonpredictable grammatical units, suggesting...... that these predictable units should be considered grammatical constructions on a par with the nonpredictable constructions. Frequency has usually been seen as the only possible argument speaking in favor of viewing some formally and semantically fully predictable units as grammatical constructions. However, this paper...... semantically and formally predictable. Despite this difference, [méllo INF], like the other future periphrases, seems to be highly entrenched in the cognition (and grammar) of Early Medieval Greek language users, and consequently a grammatical construction. The syntactic evidence speaking in favor of [méllo...

  1. Predicted value of $0 \\, \

    CERN Document Server

    Maedan, Shinji

    2016-01-01

    Assuming that the lightest neutrino mass $ m_0 $ is measured, we study the influence of error of the measured $ m_0 $ on the uncertainty of the predicted value of the neutrinoless double beta decay ($0 \\, \

  2. Predicting Online Purchasing Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    W.R BUCKINX; D. VAN DEN POEL

    2003-01-01

    This empirical study investigates the contribution of different types of predictors to the purchasing behaviour at an online store. We use logit modelling to predict whether or not a purchase is made during the next visit to the website using both forward and backward variable-selection techniques, as well as Furnival and Wilson’s global score search algorithm to find the best subset of predictors. We contribute to the literature by using variables from four different categories in predicting...

  3. Nonparametric Predictive Regression

    OpenAIRE

    Ioannis Kasparis; Elena Andreou; Phillips, Peter C.B.

    2012-01-01

    A unifying framework for inference is developed in predictive regressions where the predictor has unknown integration properties and may be stationary or nonstationary. Two easily implemented nonparametric F-tests are proposed. The test statistics are related to those of Kasparis and Phillips (2012) and are obtained by kernel regression. The limit distribution of these predictive tests holds for a wide range of predictors including stationary as well as non-stationary fractional and near unit...

  4. Aircraft Noise Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This contribution addresses the state-of-the-art in the field of aircraft noise prediction, simulation and minimisation. The point of view taken in this context is that of comprehensive models that couple the various aircraft systems with the acoustic sources, the propagation and the flight trajectories. After an exhaustive review of the present predictive technologies in the relevant fields (airframe, propulsion, propagation, aircraft operations, trajectory optimisation), the paper add...

  5. Stuck pipe prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alzahrani, Majed

    2016-03-10

    Disclosed are various embodiments for a prediction application to predict a stuck pipe. A linear regression model is generated from hook load readings at corresponding bit depths. A current hook load reading at a current bit depth is compared with a normal hook load reading from the linear regression model. A current hook load greater than a normal hook load for a given bit depth indicates the likelihood of a stuck pipe.

  6. Operational Dust Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedetti, Angela; Baldasano, Jose M.; Basart, Sara; Benincasa, Francesco; Boucher, Olivier; Brooks, Malcolm E.; Chen, Jen-Ping; Colarco, Peter R.; Gong, Sunlin; Huneeus, Nicolas; Jones, Luke; Lu, Sarah; Menut, Laurent; Morcrette, Jean-Jacques; Mulcahy, Jane; Nickovic, Slobodan; Garcia-Pando, Carlos P.; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Sekiyama, Thomas T.; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Terradellas, Enric; Westphal, Douglas L.; Zhang, Xiao-Ye; Zhou, Chun-Hong

    2014-01-01

    Over the last few years, numerical prediction of dust aerosol concentration has become prominent at several research and operational weather centres due to growing interest from diverse stakeholders, such as solar energy plant managers, health professionals, aviation and military authorities and policymakers. Dust prediction in numerical weather prediction-type models faces a number of challenges owing to the complexity of the system. At the centre of the problem is the vast range of scales required to fully account for all of the physical processes related to dust. Another limiting factor is the paucity of suitable dust observations available for model, evaluation and assimilation. This chapter discusses in detail numerical prediction of dust with examples from systems that are currently providing dust forecasts in near real-time or are part of international efforts to establish daily provision of dust forecasts based on multi-model ensembles. The various models are introduced and described along with an overview on the importance of dust prediction activities and a historical perspective. Assimilation and evaluation aspects in dust prediction are also discussed.

  7. Treatment of the degenerated intervertebral disc; closure, repair and regeneration of the annulus fibrosus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sharifi, Shahriar; Bulstra, Sjoerd K.; Grijpma, Dirk W.; Kuijer, Roel

    2015-01-01

    Degeneration of the intervertebral disc (IVD) and disc herniation are two causes of low back pain. The aetiology of these disorders is unknown, but tissue weakening, which primarily occurs due to inherited genetic factors, ageing, nutritional compromise and loading history, is the basic factor causi

  8. 3D segmentation of annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus from T2-weighted magnetic resonance images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro-Mateos, Isaac; Pozo, Jose M.; Eltes, Peter E.; Del Rio, Luis; Lazary, Aron; Frangi, Alejandro F.

    2014-12-01

    Computational medicine aims at employing personalised computational models in diagnosis and treatment planning. The use of such models to help physicians in finding the best treatment for low back pain (LBP) is becoming popular. One of the challenges of creating such models is to derive patient-specific anatomical and tissue models of the lumbar intervertebral discs (IVDs), as a prior step. This article presents a segmentation scheme that obtains accurate results irrespective of the degree of IVD degeneration, including pathological discs with protrusion or herniation. The segmentation algorithm, employing a novel feature selector, iteratively deforms an initial shape, which is projected into a statistical shape model space at first and then, into a B-Spline space to improve accuracy. The method was tested on a MR dataset of 59 patients suffering from LBP. The images follow a standard T2-weighted protocol in coronal and sagittal acquisitions. These two image volumes were fused in order to overcome large inter-slice spacing. The agreement between expert-delineated structures, used here as gold-standard, and our automatic segmentation was evaluated using Dice Similarity Index and surface-to-surface distances, obtaining a mean error of 0.68 mm in the annulus segmentation and 1.88 mm in the nucleus, which are the best results with respect to the image resolution in the current literature.

  9. Cytomics in predictive medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarnok, Attila; Valet, Guenther K.

    2004-07-01

    Predictive Medicine aims at the detection of changes in patient's disease state prior to the manifestation of deterioration or improvement of the current status. Patient-specific, disease-course predictions with >95% or >99% accuracy during therapy would be highly valuable for everyday medicine. If these predictors were available, disease aggravation or progression, frequently accompanied by irreversible tissue damage or therapeutic side effects, could then potentially be avoided by early preventive therapy. The molecular analysis of heterogeneous cellular systems (Cytomics) by cytometry in conjunction with pattern-oriented bioinformatic analysis of the multiparametric cytometric and other data provides a promising approach to individualized or personalized medical treatment or disease management. Predictive medicine is best implemented by cell oriented measurements e.g. by flow or image cytometry. Cell oriented gene or protein arrays as well as bead arrays for the capture of solute molecules form serum, plasma, urine or liquor are equally of high value. Clinical applications of predictive medicine by Cytomics will include multi organ failure in sepsis or non infectious posttraumatic shock in intensive care, or the pretherapeutic identification of high risk patients in cancer cytostatic. Early individualized therapy may provide better survival chances for individual patient at concomitant cost containment. Predictive medicine guided early reduction or stop of therapy may lower or abrogate potential therapeutic side effects. Further important aspects of predictive medicine concern the preoperative identification of patients with a tendency for postoperative complications or coronary artery disease patients with an increased tendency for restenosis. As a consequence, better patient care and new forms of inductive scientific hypothesis development based on the interpretation of predictive data patterns are at reach.

  10. Aircraft noise prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippone, Antonio

    2014-07-01

    This contribution addresses the state-of-the-art in the field of aircraft noise prediction, simulation and minimisation. The point of view taken in this context is that of comprehensive models that couple the various aircraft systems with the acoustic sources, the propagation and the flight trajectories. After an exhaustive review of the present predictive technologies in the relevant fields (airframe, propulsion, propagation, aircraft operations, trajectory optimisation), the paper addresses items for further research and development. Examples are shown for several airplanes, including the Airbus A319-100 (CFM engines), the Bombardier Dash8-Q400 (PW150 engines, Dowty R408 propellers) and the Boeing B737-800 (CFM engines). Predictions are done with the flight mechanics code FLIGHT. The transfer function between flight mechanics and the noise prediction is discussed in some details, along with the numerical procedures for validation and verification. Some code-to-code comparisons are shown. It is contended that the field of aircraft noise prediction has not yet reached a sufficient level of maturity. In particular, some parametric effects cannot be investigated, issues of accuracy are not currently addressed, and validation standards are still lacking.

  11. Predicting tile drainage discharge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Bo Vangsø; Kjærgaard, Charlotte; Petersen, Rasmus Jes;

    of the water load coming from the tile drainage system is therefore essential. This work aims at predicting tile drainage discharge using dynamic as well as a statistical predictive models. A large dataset of historical tile drain discharge data, daily discharge values as well as yearly average values were......More than 50 % of Danish agricultural areas are expected to be artificial tile drained. Transport of water and nutrients through the tile drain system to the aquatic environment is expected to be significant. For different mitigation strategies such as constructed wetlands an exact knowledge...... used in the analysis. For the dynamic modelling, a simple linear reservoir model was used where different outlets in the model represented tile drain as well as groundwater discharge outputs. This modelling was based on daily measured tile drain discharge values. The statistical predictive model...

  12. Partially predictable chaos

    CERN Document Server

    Wernecke, Hendrik; Gros, Claudius

    2016-01-01

    For a chaotic system pairs of initially close-by trajectories become eventually fully uncorrelated on the attracting set. This process of decorrelation is split into an initial decrease characterized by the maximal Lyapunov exponent and a subsequent diffusive process on the chaotic attractor causing the final loss of predictability. The time scales of both processes can be either of the same or of very different orders of magnitude. In the latter case the two trajectories linger within a finite but small distance (with respect to the overall size of the attractor) for exceedingly long times and therefore remain partially predictable. We introduce a 0-1 indicator for chaos capable of describing this scenario, arguing, in addition, that the chaotic closed braids found close to a period-doubling transition are generically partially predictable.

  13. Basis of predictive mycology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantigny, Philippe; Guilmart, Audrey; Bensoussan, Maurice

    2005-04-15

    For over 20 years, predictive microbiology focused on food-pathogenic bacteria. Few studies concerned modelling fungal development. On one hand, most of food mycologists are not familiar with modelling techniques; on the other hand, people involved in modelling are developing tools dedicated to bacteria. Therefore, there is a tendency to extend the use of models that were developed for bacteria to moulds. However, some mould specificities should be taken into account. The use of specific models for predicting germination and growth of fungi was advocated previously []. This paper provides a short review of fungal modelling studies.

  14. Prediction of Antibody Epitopes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Marcatili, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Antibodies recognize their cognate antigens in a precise and effective way. In order to do so, they target regions of the antigenic molecules that have specific features such as large exposed areas, presence of charged or polar atoms, specific secondary structure elements, and lack of similarity...... to self-proteins. Given the sequence or the structure of a protein of interest, several methods exploit such features to predict the residues that are more likely to be recognized by an immunoglobulin.Here, we present two methods (BepiPred and DiscoTope) to predict linear and discontinuous antibody...

  15. Linguistic Structure Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Noah A

    2011-01-01

    A major part of natural language processing now depends on the use of text data to build linguistic analyzers. We consider statistical, computational approaches to modeling linguistic structure. We seek to unify across many approaches and many kinds of linguistic structures. Assuming a basic understanding of natural language processing and/or machine learning, we seek to bridge the gap between the two fields. Approaches to decoding (i.e., carrying out linguistic structure prediction) and supervised and unsupervised learning of models that predict discrete structures as outputs are the focus. W

  16. Nuclear level density predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bucurescu Dorel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Simple formulas depending only on nuclear masses were previously proposed for the parameters of the Back-Shifted Fermi Gas (BSFG model and of the Constant Temperature (CT model of the nuclear level density, respectively. They are now applied for the prediction of the level density parameters of all nuclei with available masses. Both masses from the new 2012 mass table and from different models are considered and the predictions are discussed in connection with nuclear regions most affected by shell corrections and nuclear structure effects and relevant for the nucleosynthesis.

  17. A Characterization of Prediction Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Meek, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    Understanding prediction errors and determining how to fix them is critical to building effective predictive systems. In this paper, we delineate four types of prediction errors and demonstrate that these four types characterize all prediction errors. In addition, we describe potential remedies and tools that can be used to reduce the uncertainty when trying to determine the source of a prediction error and when trying to take action to remove a prediction errors.

  18. Prediction method abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This conference was held December 4--8, 1994 in Asilomar, California. The purpose of this meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information concerning the prediction of protein structure. Attention if focused on the following: comparative modeling; sequence to fold assignment; and ab initio folding.

  19. Predictability of critical transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaozhu; Kuehn, Christian; Hallerberg, Sarah

    2015-11-01

    Critical transitions in multistable systems have been discussed as models for a variety of phenomena ranging from the extinctions of species to socioeconomic changes and climate transitions between ice ages and warm ages. From bifurcation theory we can expect certain critical transitions to be preceded by a decreased recovery from external perturbations. The consequences of this critical slowing down have been observed as an increase in variance and autocorrelation prior to the transition. However, especially in the presence of noise, it is not clear whether these changes in observation variables are statistically relevant such that they could be used as indicators for critical transitions. In this contribution we investigate the predictability of critical transitions in conceptual models. We study the quadratic integrate-and-fire model and the van der Pol model under the influence of external noise. We focus especially on the statistical analysis of the success of predictions and the overall predictability of the system. The performance of different indicator variables turns out to be dependent on the specific model under study and the conditions of accessing it. Furthermore, we study the influence of the magnitude of transitions on the predictive performance.

  20. Predicting coronary heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sillesen, Henrik; Fuster, Valentin

    2012-01-01

    Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of death and disabling disease. Whereas risk factors are well known and constitute therapeutic targets, they are not useful for prediction of risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. Therefore, methods to identify atherosclerosis itself have been...

  1. THE PREDICTION OF OVULATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANGXin-Xing; ZHAShu-Wei; WUZhou-Ya

    1989-01-01

    The authors present their work on the prediction of ovulation in forty-five women with normal menstrual cycles for a total of 72 cycles by several indices, including ultrasonography, BBT graph, cervical mucus and mittelschmerz, LH peak values were also determined for reference in 20 cases ( 20 cycles ), Results are as follows:

  2. Space Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-31

    Mason University (Odstrcil), worked to modify the WSA-Enlil operational solar wind model so that it runs in a more realistic, time-dependent fashion...Ruždjak, D., Cliver, E., Svalgaard, L., and Roth , M., “On solar cycle predictions and reconstructions,” Astronomy & Astrophysics, 496, Mar 2009, pp

  3. Predicting Visibility of Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew; Ramirez, Cesar V.; Salud, Ellen

    2009-01-01

    Visual detection of aircraft by human observers is an important element of aviation safety. To assess and ensure safety, it would be useful to be able to be able to predict the visibility, to a human observer, of an aircraft of specified size, shape, distance, and coloration. Examples include assuring safe separation among aircraft and between aircraft and unmanned vehicles, design of airport control towers, and efforts to enhance or suppress the visibility of military and rescue vehicles. We have recently developed a simple metric of pattern visibility, the Spatial Standard Observer (SSO). In this report we examine whether the SSO can predict visibility of simulated aircraft images. We constructed a set of aircraft images from three-dimensional computer graphic models, and measured the luminance contrast threshold for each image from three human observers. The data were well predicted by the SSO. Finally, we show how to use the SSO to predict visibility range for aircraft of arbitrary size, shape, distance, and coloration. PMID:19462007

  4. Predicting Reasoning from Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heit, Evan; Hayes, Brett K.

    2011-01-01

    In an effort to assess the relations between reasoning and memory, in 8 experiments, the authors examined how well responses on an inductive reasoning task are predicted from responses on a recognition memory task for the same picture stimuli. Across several experimental manipulations, such as varying study time, presentation frequency, and the…

  5. Predictive models in urology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cestari, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Predictive modeling is emerging as an important knowledge-based technology in healthcare. The interest in the use of predictive modeling reflects advances on different fronts such as the availability of health information from increasingly complex databases and electronic health records, a better understanding of causal or statistical predictors of health, disease processes and multifactorial models of ill-health and developments in nonlinear computer models using artificial intelligence or neural networks. These new computer-based forms of modeling are increasingly able to establish technical credibility in clinical contexts. The current state of knowledge is still quite young in understanding the likely future direction of how this so-called 'machine intelligence' will evolve and therefore how current relatively sophisticated predictive models will evolve in response to improvements in technology, which is advancing along a wide front. Predictive models in urology are gaining progressive popularity not only for academic and scientific purposes but also into the clinical practice with the introduction of several nomograms dealing with the main fields of onco-urology.

  6. Vertebral Fracture Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2008-01-01

    Vertebral Fracture Prediction A method of processing data derived from an image of at least part of a spine is provided for estimating the risk of a future fracture in vertebraeof the spine. Position data relating to at least four neighbouring vertebrae of the spine is processed. The curvature...

  7. Highlights, predictions, and changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeang Kuan-Teh

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding “hot” retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  8. Highlights, predictions, and changes

    OpenAIRE

    Jeang Kuan-Teh

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding “hot” retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  9. Predicting Intrinsic Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Rob; Kirschner, Paul A.

    2004-01-01

    Intrinsic motivation can be predicted from participants' perceptions of the social environment and the task environment (Ryan & Deci, 2000)in terms of control, relatedness and competence. To determine the degree of independence of these factors 251 students in higher vocational education (physiotherapy and hotel management) indicated the extent to…

  10. Neurological abnormalities predict disability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poggesi, Anna; Gouw, Alida; van der Flier, Wiesje

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the role of neurological abnormalities and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions in predicting global functional decline in a cohort of initially independent-living elderly subjects. The Leukoaraiosis And DISability (LADIS) Study, involving 11 European centres, was primarily aimed...

  11. Hypotheses and Inductive Predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ROMEYN, J.-W.

    2008-01-01

    ABSTRACT. This paper studies the use of hypotheses schemes in generating inductive predictions. After discussing Carnap–Hintikka inductive logic, hypotheses schemes are defined and illustrated with two partitions. One partition results in the Carnapian continuum of inductive methods, the other resul

  12. Predicting Classroom Success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Ronald P.

    A study was conducted at Rancho Santiago College (RSC) to identify personal and academic factors that are predictive of students' success in their courses. The study examined the following possible predictors of success: language and math test scores; background characteristics; length of time out of high school; high school background; college…

  13. Predicting rainfall beyond tomorrow

    Science.gov (United States)

    NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues climate precipitation forecasts that offer potential support for water resource managers and farmers and ranchers in New Mexico, but the forecasts are frequently misunderstood and not widely used in practical decision making. The objectives of this newsletter ...

  14. Genetically optimizing weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, S. B.; Staats, Kai; Romero-Colmenero, Encarni

    2016-07-01

    humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction) into a database. Built upon this database, we have developed a remarkably simple approach to derive a functional weather predictor. The aim is provide up to the minute local weather predictions in order to e.g. prepare dome environment conditions ready for night time operations or plan, prioritize and update weather dependent observing queues. In order to predict the weather for the next 24 hours, we take the current live weather readings and search the entire archive for similar conditions. Predictions are made against an averaged, subsequent 24 hours of the closest matches for the current readings. We use an Evolutionary Algorithm to optimize our formula through weighted parameters. The accuracy of the predictor is routinely tested and tuned against the full, updated archive to account for seasonal trends and total, climate shifts. The live (updated every 5 minutes) SALT weather predictor can be viewed here: http://www.saao.ac.za/ sbp/suthweather_predict.html

  15. PREDICTION OF OVULATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIUYong; CHENSu-Ru; ZHOUJin-Ting; LIUJi-Ying

    1989-01-01

    The purpose or this research is: I) to observe the secretory pattern of five reproductive hormones in Chinese women with normal menstrual cyclcs, especially at the prc-ovulatory peroid; 2) to study whether urinary LH measurement could be used instead of serum LH measurement; 3) to evaluate the significance of LH-EIA kit (Right-Day) for ovulation prediction.

  16. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...

  17. Essays on Earnings Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Mark

    affect the accuracy of analysts´earnings forecasts. Finally, the objective of the dissertation is to investigate how the stock market is affected by the accuracy of corporate earnings projections. The dissertation contributes to a deeper understanding of these issues. First, it is shown how earnings...... of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the dissertation shows how the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of information about corporate earnings depends on how well corporate earnings can be predicted. The dissertation indicates that the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of earnings...... forecasts are not more accurate than the simpler forecasts based on a historical timeseries of earnings. Secondly, the dissertation shows how accounting standards affect analysts’ earnings predictions. Accounting conservatism contributes to a more volatile earnings process, which lowers the accuracy...

  18. Predictive Hypothesis Identification

    CERN Document Server

    Hutter, Marcus

    2008-01-01

    While statistics focusses on hypothesis testing and on estimating (properties of) the true sampling distribution, in machine learning the performance of learning algorithms on future data is the primary issue. In this paper we bridge the gap with a general principle (PHI) that identifies hypotheses with best predictive performance. This includes predictive point and interval estimation, simple and composite hypothesis testing, (mixture) model selection, and others as special cases. For concrete instantiations we will recover well-known methods, variations thereof, and new ones. PHI nicely justifies, reconciles, and blends (a reparametrization invariant variation of) MAP, ML, MDL, and moment estimation. One particular feature of PHI is that it can genuinely deal with nested hypotheses.

  19. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn; Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular......We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto......, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”....

  20. Chaos detection and predictability

    CERN Document Server

    Gottwald, Georg; Laskar, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Distinguishing chaoticity from regularity in deterministic dynamical systems and specifying the subspace of the phase space in which instabilities are expected to occur is of utmost importance in as disparate areas as astronomy, particle physics and climate dynamics.   To address these issues there exists a plethora of methods for chaos detection and predictability. The most commonly employed technique for investigating chaotic dynamics, i.e. the computation of Lyapunov exponents, however, may suffer a number of problems and drawbacks, for example when applied to noisy experimental data.   In the last two decades, several novel methods have been developed for the fast and reliable determination of the regular or chaotic nature of orbits, aimed at overcoming the shortcomings of more traditional techniques. This set of lecture notes and tutorial reviews serves as an introduction to and overview of modern chaos detection and predictability techniques for graduate students and non-specialists.   The book cover...

  1. Prediction of the

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasenjit Dey

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The aerodynamic behavior of a square cylinder with rounded corner edges in steady flow regime in the range of Reynolds number (Re 5–45; is predicted by Artificial Neural Network (ANN using MATLAB. The ANN has trained by back propagation algorithm. The ANN requires input and output data to train the network, which is obtained from the commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD software FLUENT in the present study. In FLUENT, all the governing equations are discretized by the finite volume method. Results from numerical simulation and back propagation based ANN have been compared. It has been discovered that the ANN predicts the aerodynamic behavior correctly within the given range of the training data. It is additionally observed that back propagation based ANN is an effective tool to forecast the aerodynamic behavior than simulation, that has very much longer computational time.

  2. Predictability of Critical Transitions

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Xiaozhu; Hallerberg, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Critical transitions in multistable systems have been discussed as models for a variety of phenomena ranging from the extinctions of species to socio-economic changes and climate transitions between ice-ages and warm-ages. From bifurcation theory we can expect certain critical transitions to be preceded by a decreased recovery from external perturbations. The consequences of this critical slowing down have been observed as an increase in variance and autocorrelation prior to the transition. However especially in the presence of noise it is not clear, whether these changes in observation variables are statistically relevant such that they could be used as indicators for critical transitions. In this contribution we investigate the predictability of critical transitions in conceptual models. We study the the quadratic integrate-and-fire model and the van der Pol model, under the influence of external noise. We focus especially on the statistical analysis of the success of predictions and the overall predictabil...

  3. Predicting Bankruptcy in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul RASHID

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to identify the financial ratios that are most significant in bankruptcy prediction for the non-financial sector of Pakistan based on a sample of companies which became bankrupt over the time period 1996-2006. Twenty four financial ratios covering four important financial attributes, namely profitability, liquidity, leverage, and turnover ratios, were examined for a five-year period prior bankruptcy. The discriminant analysis produced a parsimonious model of three variables viz. sales to total assets, EBIT to current liabilities, and cash flow ratio. Our estimates provide evidence that the firms having Z-value below zero fall into the “bankrupt” whereas the firms with Z-value above zero fall into the “non-bankrupt” category. The model achieved 76.9% prediction accuracy when it is applied to forecast bankruptcies on the underlying sample.

  4. Urban pluvial flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-01-01

    historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs......Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

  5. Predictability of Solar Flares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mares, Peter; Balasubramaniam, K. S.

    2009-05-01

    Solar flares are significant drivers of space weather. With the availability of high cadence solar chromospheric and photospheric data from the USAF's Optical Solar PAtrol Network (OSPAN; photosphere and chromosphere imaging) Telescope and the Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG; photosphere magnetic imaging), at the National Solar Observatory, we have gained insights into potential uses of the data for solar flare prediction. We apply the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to parameterize the flaring system and extract consistent observables at solar chromospheric and photospheric layers that indicate a viable recognition of flaring activity. Rather than limiting ourselves to a few known indicators of solar activity, PCA helps us to characterize the entire system using several tens of variables for each observed layer. The components of the Eigen vectors derived from PCA help us recognize and quantify innate characteristics of solar flares and compare them. We will present an analysis of these results to explore the viability of PCA to assist in predicting solar flares.

  6. Predicting Anthracycline Benefit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartlett, John M S; McConkey, Christopher C; Munro, Alison F

    2015-01-01

    as measured with a centromere enumeration probe (CEP17) predicted sensitivity to anthracyclines, we report here an individual patient-level pooled analysis of data from five trials comparing anthracycline-based chemotherapy with CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil) as adjuvant chemotherapy.......6% (TOP2A) of 3,846 patient cases with available tissue. Both CEP17and TOP2A treatment-by-marker interactions remained significant in adjusted analyses for recurrence-free and overall survival, whereas HER2 did not. A combined CEP17 and TOP2A-adjusted model predicted anthracycline benefit across all five...... trials for both recurrence-free (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.82; P = .001) and overall survival (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.85; P = .005). CONCLUSION: This prospectively planned individual-patient pooled analysis of patient cases from five adjuvant trials confirms that patients whose...

  7. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn; Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto...... numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular......, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”....

  8. Crystal structure and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Tejender S; Dubey, Ritesh; Desiraju, Gautam R

    2015-04-01

    The notion of structure is central to the subject of chemistry. This review traces the development of the idea of crystal structure since the time when a crystal structure could be determined from a three-dimensional diffraction pattern and assesses the feasibility of computationally predicting an unknown crystal structure of a given molecule. Crystal structure prediction is of considerable fundamental and applied importance, and its successful execution is by no means a solved problem. The ease of crystal structure determination today has resulted in the availability of large numbers of crystal structures of higher-energy polymorphs and pseudopolymorphs. These structural libraries lead to the concept of a crystal structure landscape. A crystal structure of a compound may accordingly be taken as a data point in such a landscape.

  9. Comparing Spatial Predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2011-11-01

    Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis is that of no difference, and a spatial loss differential is created based on the observed data, the two sets of predictions, and the loss function chosen by the researcher. The test assumes only isotropy and short-range spatial dependence of the loss differential but does allow it to be non-Gaussian, non-zero-mean, and spatially correlated. Constant and nonconstant spatial trends in the loss differential are treated in two separate cases. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the size and power properties of this test, and an example based on daily average wind speeds in Oklahoma is used for illustration. Supplemental results are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Qualitys.

  10. Predictive dynamic digital holography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulaiman, Sennan; Gibson, Steve; Spencer, Mark

    2016-09-01

    Digital holography has received recent attention for many imaging and sensing applications, including imaging through turbulent and turbid media, adaptive optics, three dimensional projective display technology and optical tweezing. A significant obstacle for digital holography in real-time applications, such as wavefront sensing for high energy laser systems and high speed imaging for target tracking, is the fact that digital holography is computationally intensive; it requires iterative virtual wavefront propagation and hill-climbing to optimize some sharpness criteria. This paper demonstrates real-time methods for digital holography based on approaches developed recently at UCLA for optimal and adaptive identification, prediction, and control of optical wavefronts. The methods presented integrate minimum variance wavefront prediction into digital holography schemes to short-circuit the computationally intensive algorithms for iterative propagation of virtual wavefronts and hill climbing for sharpness optimization.

  11. Multivariate respiratory motion prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dürichen, R.; Wissel, T.; Ernst, F.; Schlaefer, A.; Schweikard, A.

    2014-10-01

    In extracranial robotic radiotherapy, tumour motion is compensated by tracking external and internal surrogates. To compensate system specific time delays, time series prediction of the external optical surrogates is used. We investigate whether the prediction accuracy can be increased by expanding the current clinical setup by an accelerometer, a strain belt and a flow sensor. Four previously published prediction algorithms are adapted to multivariate inputs—normalized least mean squares (nLMS), wavelet-based least mean squares (wLMS), support vector regression (SVR) and relevance vector machines (RVM)—and evaluated for three different prediction horizons. The measurement involves 18 subjects and consists of two phases, focusing on long term trends (M1) and breathing artefacts (M2). To select the most relevant and least redundant sensors, a sequential forward selection (SFS) method is proposed. Using a multivariate setting, the results show that the clinically used nLMS algorithm is susceptible to large outliers. In the case of irregular breathing (M2), the mean root mean square error (RMSE) of a univariate nLMS algorithm is 0.66 mm and can be decreased to 0.46 mm by a multivariate RVM model (best algorithm on average). To investigate the full potential of this approach, the optimal sensor combination was also estimated on the complete test set. The results indicate that a further decrease in RMSE is possible for RVM (to 0.42 mm). This motivates further research about sensor selection methods. Besides the optical surrogates, the sensors most frequently selected by the algorithms are the accelerometer and the strain belt. These sensors could be easily integrated in the current clinical setup and would allow a more precise motion compensation.

  12. Predictive Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolpert, David H.

    2005-01-01

    Probability theory governs the outcome of a game; there is a distribution over mixed strat.'s, not a single "equilibrium". To predict a single mixed strategy must use our loss function (external to the game's players. Provides a quantification of any strategy's rationality. Prove rationality falls as cost of computation rises (for players who have not previously interacted). All extends to games with varying numbers of players.

  13. Characterization of Mesoscale Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    assimilation to either create pairs of different initial conditions (Bei and Zhang 2007, Mapes et al. 2008) or to initialize a large ensemble (Durran et...curves over all wave numbers where the error had not yet saturated. Following the terminology suggested by Mapes et al. (2008), the evolution of... Mapes , B., S. Tulich, T. Nasuno, and M. Satoh, 2008: Predictability aspects of global aqua- planet simulations with explicit convection. J. Meteor. Soc

  14. Nominal Model Predictive Control

    OpenAIRE

    Grüne, Lars

    2014-01-01

    5 p., to appear in Encyclopedia of Systems and Control, Tariq Samad, John Baillieul (eds.); International audience; Model Predictive Control is a controller design method which synthesizes a sampled data feedback controller from the iterative solution of open loop optimal control problems.We describe the basic functionality of MPC controllers, their properties regarding feasibility, stability and performance and the assumptions needed in order to rigorously ensure these properties in a nomina...

  15. Nominal model predictive control

    OpenAIRE

    Grüne, Lars

    2013-01-01

    5 p., to appear in Encyclopedia of Systems and Control, Tariq Samad, John Baillieul (eds.); International audience; Model Predictive Control is a controller design method which synthesizes a sampled data feedback controller from the iterative solution of open loop optimal control problems.We describe the basic functionality of MPC controllers, their properties regarding feasibility, stability and performance and the assumptions needed in order to rigorously ensure these properties in a nomina...

  16. Predicting appointment breaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, A G; Talaga, J

    1995-01-01

    The goal of physician referral services is to schedule appointments, but if too many patients fail to show up, the value of the service will be compromised. The authors found that appointment breaking can be predicted by the number of days to the scheduled appointment, the doctor's specialty, and the patient's age and gender. They also offer specific suggestions for modifying the marketing mix to reduce the incidence of no-shows.

  17. Prediction of Algebraic Instabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaretzky, Paula; King, Kristina; Hill, Nicole; Keithley, Kimberlee; Barlow, Nathaniel; Weinstein, Steven; Cromer, Michael

    2016-11-01

    A widely unexplored type of hydrodynamic instability is examined - large-time algebraic growth. Such growth occurs on the threshold of (exponentially) neutral stability. A new methodology is provided for predicting the algebraic growth rate of an initial disturbance, when applied to the governing differential equation (or dispersion relation) describing wave propagation in dispersive media. Several types of algebraic instabilities are explored in the context of both linear and nonlinear waves.

  18. Time-predictable architectures

    CERN Document Server

    Rochange, Christine; Uhrig , Sascha

    2014-01-01

    Building computers that can be used to design embedded real-time systems is the subject of this title. Real-time embedded software requires increasingly higher performances. The authors therefore consider processors that implement advanced mechanisms such as pipelining, out-of-order execution, branch prediction, cache memories, multi-threading, multicorearchitectures, etc. The authors of this book investigate the timepredictability of such schemes.

  19. Kuiper Belt Occultation Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Fraser, Wesley C; Trujillo, Chad; Stephens, Andrew W; Kavelaars, JJ; Brown, Michael E; Bianco, Federica B; Boyle, Richard P; Brucker, Melissa J; Hetherington, Nathan; Joner, Michael; Keel, William C; Langill, Phil P; Lister, Tim; McMillan, Russet J; Young, Leslie

    2013-01-01

    Here we present observations of 7 large Kuiper Belt Objects. From these observations, we extract a point source catalog with $\\sim0.01"$ precision, and astrometry of our target Kuiper Belt Objects with $0.04-0.08"$ precision within that catalog. We have developed a new technique to predict the future occurrence of stellar occultations by Kuiper Belt Objects. The technique makes use of a maximum likelihood approach which determines the best-fit adjustment to cataloged orbital elements of an object. Using simulations of a theoretical object, we discuss the merits and weaknesses of this technique compared to the commonly adopted ephemeris offset approach. We demonstrate that both methods suffer from separate weaknesses, and thus, together provide a fair assessment of the true uncertainty in a particular prediction. We present occultation predictions made by both methods for the 7 tracked objects, with dates as late as 2015. Finally, we discuss observations of three separate close passages of Quaoar to field star...

  20. Predicting Human Cooperation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J Nay

    Full Text Available The Prisoner's Dilemma has been a subject of extensive research due to its importance in understanding the ever-present tension between individual self-interest and social benefit. A strictly dominant strategy in a Prisoner's Dilemma (defection, when played by both players, is mutually harmful. Repetition of the Prisoner's Dilemma can give rise to cooperation as an equilibrium, but defection is as well, and this ambiguity is difficult to resolve. The numerous behavioral experiments investigating the Prisoner's Dilemma highlight that players often cooperate, but the level of cooperation varies significantly with the specifics of the experimental predicament. We present the first computational model of human behavior in repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games that unifies the diversity of experimental observations in a systematic and quantitatively reliable manner. Our model relies on data we integrated from many experiments, comprising 168,386 individual decisions. The model is composed of two pieces: the first predicts the first-period action using solely the structural game parameters, while the second predicts dynamic actions using both game parameters and history of play. Our model is successful not merely at fitting the data, but in predicting behavior at multiple scales in experimental designs not used for calibration, using only information about the game structure. We demonstrate the power of our approach through a simulation analysis revealing how to best promote human cooperation.

  1. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  2. Is Suicide Predictable?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Asmaee

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Background:The current study aimed to test the hypothesis: Is suicide predictable? And try to classify the predictive factors in multiple suicide attempts.Methods:A cross-sectional study was administered to 223 multiple attempters, women who came to a medical poison centre after a suicide attempt.The participants were young, poor, and single.A Logistic Regression Analiysis was used to classify the predictive factors of suicide.Results:Women who had multiple suicide attempts exhibited a significant tendency to attempt suicide again. They had a history for more than two years of multiple suicide attempts, from three to as many as 18 times, plus mental illnesses such as depression and substance abuse.They also had a positive history of mental illnesses.Conclusion:Results indicate that contributing factors for another suicide attempt include previous suicide attempts, mental illness (depression,or a positive history of mental illnesses in the family affecting them at a young age, and substance abuse.

  3. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jørgensen, Claus B.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the ‘gambler’s fallacy’, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the ‘hot-hand fallacy’.......We investigate the ‘law of small numbers’ using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers...

  4. Towards Predictive Association Theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Tsivintzelis, Ioannis; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    2011-01-01

    Association equations of state like SAFT, CPA and NRHB have been previously applied to many complex mixtures. In this work we focus on two of these models, the CPA and the NRHB equations of state and the emphasis is on the analysis of their predictive capabilities for a wide range of applications...... and water–MEG–aliphatic hydrocarbons LLE using interaction parameters obtained from the binary data alone. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the NRHB equation of state is a versatile tool which can be employed equally well to mixtures with pharmaceuticals and solvents, including mixed solvents, as well...

  5. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents experimentally based design parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash...... in marine atmospheric and submersed South Scandinavian environment. The design parameters are based on sequential measurements of 86 chloride profiles taken over ten years from 13 different types of concrete. The design parameters provide the input for an analytical model for chloride profiles as function...

  6. Foundations of predictive analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, James

    2012-01-01

    Drawing on the authors' two decades of experience in applied modeling and data mining, Foundations of Predictive Analytics presents the fundamental background required for analyzing data and building models for many practical applications, such as consumer behavior modeling, risk and marketing analytics, and other areas. It also discusses a variety of practical topics that are frequently missing from similar texts. The book begins with the statistical and linear algebra/matrix foundation of modeling methods, from distributions to cumulant and copula functions to Cornish--Fisher expansion and o

  7. Predicting Sustainable Work Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Kim Sundtoft

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable work behavior is an important issue for operations managers – it has implications for most outcomes of OM. This research explores the antecedents of sustainable work behavior. It revisits and extends the sociotechnical model developed by Brown et al. (2000) on predicting safe behavior....... Employee characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work condition are included in the extended model. A survey was handed out to 654 employees in Chinese factories. This research contributes by demonstrating how employee- characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work...... condition influence their sustainable work behavior. A new definition of sustainable work behavior is proposed....

  8. Consciousness -- A Verifiable Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchapakesan, N.

    2014-07-01

    Consciousness may or may not be completely within the realm of science. We have argued elsewhere that there is a high probability that it is not within the purview of science, just like humanities and arts are outside science. Even social sciences do not come under science when human interactions are involved. Here, we suggest a possible experiment to decide whether it is part of science. We suggest that a scientific signal may be available to investigate the prediction in the form of an electromagnetic brainwave background radiation.

  9. Predicting photothermal field performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, C. C.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    Photothermal field performance in flat plate solar collectors was predicted. An analytical model which incorporates the measured dependency between transmittance loss and UV and temperature exposure levels was developed. The model uses SOLMET weather data extrapolated to 30 years for various sites and module mounting configurations. It is concluded that the temperature is the key to photothermally induced transmittance loss. The sensitivity of transmittance loss to UV level is nonlinear with minimum in curve near one sun. The ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) results are consistent with 30 year life allocation.

  10. CLINICAL-RADIOGRAPHIC CORRELATION OF DEGENERATIVE CHANGES OF THE SPINE - SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliano Neves Vialle

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Systematic review of the literature on the evaluation of images of degenerative changes of the spine and its clinical correlation. A systematic literature review was conducted, and the results evaluated for the presence of clinical correlation, as well as the type of imaging method used. The search terms were "Intervertebral Disc Degeneration", "Intervertebral disc", "Classification", "Anulus fibrosus", "Nucleus pulposus", "Lumbar spine", "Degenerative disc disease", "Degeneration", "Zygapophyseal Joint". We also assessed whether there were inter- and intraobserver agreement in the selected works and possible guidelines regarding the treatment and prognosis of patients. Of the 91 reviewed abstracts, 31 articles were selected that met the inclusion criteria. Six articles were related to the cervical spine, 13 to the lumbar spine and 12 were about changes not related specifically to a single segment of the spine. Articles that determined limiting values considered normal were also included, since variations were considered signs of degeneration or pathology. It was not possible to establish the relationship between the changes identified in imaging and the clinical history of patients, either define treatment and prognosis guidelines.

  11. Gene expression of collagen types Ⅸ and X in the lumbar disc

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    西永明; 胡有谷; 吕振华; 郑红军; 陈岩; 齐宗华

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To study gene expression of collagen types IX and X in human lumbar intervertebral discs during aging and degeneration and to explore the role of collagen types IX and X in disc degeneration.Methods: Fetal, adult and pathologic specimens were subjected to in situ hybridization with cDNA probes to investigate mRNA-expressions of types IX and X collagen gene.Results: In fetal intervertebral discs, positive mRNA hybridization signals of type IX collagen were concentrated in the nucleus pulposus and the inner layer of anulns fibrosns. Interstitial matrix of the nucleus pulposns also showed positive type X collagen staining. Positive mRNA hybridization signals of types IX and X were not detected in the middle and outer layers of anulus fibrosus. In adult specimens, expression of type IX collagen mRNA was markedly decreased. No hybridization signals of type X collagen was observed. As for pathological specimens, there was no gene expression of type IX collagen. In severe degenerated discs from adults, there were focal positive expressions of type X collagen. Conclusions: Obvious changes of collagen gene expression occur with aging. Expression of type IX collagen decreases in adult and pathological discs. Results of type X collagen expression suggest that type X collagen is expressed only in older adult and senile discs (I. E., when disc degeneration has already reached a terminal stage ),indicating the terminal stage of degeneration.

  12. A meta-model analysis of a finite element simulation for defining poroelastic properties of intervertebral discs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikkhoo, Mohammad; Hsu, Yu-Chun; Haghpanahi, Mohammad; Parnianpour, Mohamad; Wang, Jaw-Lin

    2013-06-01

    Finite element analysis is an effective tool to evaluate the material properties of living tissue. For an interactive optimization procedure, the finite element analysis usually needs many simulations to reach a reasonable solution. The meta-model analysis of finite element simulation can be used to reduce the computation of a structure with complex geometry or a material with composite constitutive equations. The intervertebral disc is a complex, heterogeneous, and hydrated porous structure. A poroelastic finite element model can be used to observe the fluid transferring, pressure deviation, and other properties within the disc. Defining reasonable poroelastic material properties of the anulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus is critical for the quality of the simulation. We developed a material property updating protocol, which is basically a fitting algorithm consisted of finite element simulations and a quadratic response surface regression. This protocol was used to find the material properties, such as the hydraulic permeability, elastic modulus, and Poisson's ratio, of intact and degenerated porcine discs. The results showed that the in vitro disc experimental deformations were well fitted with limited finite element simulations and a quadratic response surface regression. The comparison of material properties of intact and degenerated discs showed that the hydraulic permeability significantly decreased but Poisson's ratio significantly increased for the degenerated discs. This study shows that the developed protocol is efficient and effective in defining material properties of a complex structure such as the intervertebral disc.

  13. Predicting Alloreactivity in Transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten Geneugelijk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Human leukocyte Antigen (HLA mismatching leads to severe complications after solid-organ transplantation and hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. The alloreactive responses underlying the posttransplantation complications include both direct recognition of allogeneic HLA by HLA-specific alloantibodies and T cells and indirect T-cell recognition. However, the immunogenicity of HLA mismatches is highly variable; some HLA mismatches lead to severe clinical B-cell- and T-cell-mediated alloreactivity, whereas others are well tolerated. Definition of the permissibility of HLA mismatches prior to transplantation allows selection of donor-recipient combinations that will have a reduced chance to develop deleterious host-versus-graft responses after solid-organ transplantation and graft-versus-host responses after hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. Therefore, several methods have been developed to predict permissible HLA-mismatch combinations. In this review we aim to give a comprehensive overview about the current knowledge regarding HLA-directed alloreactivity and several developed in vitro and in silico tools that aim to predict direct and indirect alloreactivity.

  14. Theory use in social predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazinger, Claudia; Kühberger, Anton

    2012-12-01

    In a commentary to our article on the role of theory and simulation in social predictions, Krueger (2012) argues that the role of theory is neglected in social psychology for a good reason. He considers evidence indicating that people readily generalize from themselves to others. In response, we stress the role of theoretical knowledge in predicting other people's behavior. Importantly, prediction by simulation and prediction by theory can lead to high as well as to low correlations between own and predicted behavior. This renders correlations largely useless for identifying the prediction strategy. We argue that prediction by theory is a serious alternative to prediction by simulation, and that reliance on correlation has led to a bias toward simulation.

  15. Theory use in social predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Bazinger, Claudia; Kühberger, Anton

    2012-01-01

    In a commentary to our article on the role of theory and simulation in social predictions, Krueger (2012) argues that the role of theory is neglected in social psychology for a good reason. He considers evidence indicating that people readily generalize from themselves to others. In response, we stress the role of theoretical knowledge in predicting other people’s behavior. Importantly, prediction by simulation and prediction by theory can lead to high as well as to low correlations between o...

  16. Prediction, Regression and Critical Realism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Næss, Petter

    2004-01-01

    This paper considers the possibility of prediction in land use planning, and the use of statistical research methods in analyses of relationships between urban form and travel behaviour. Influential writers within the tradition of critical realism reject the possibility of predicting social...... of prediction necessary and possible in spatial planning of urban development. Finally, the political implications of positions within theory of science rejecting the possibility of predictions about social phenomena are addressed....

  17. Epitope prediction methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karosiene, Edita

    Major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules play a crucial role in adaptive immunity by sampling peptides from self and non-self proteins to be recognised by the immune system. MHC molecules present peptides on cell surfaces for recognition by CD8+ and CD4+ T lymphocytes that can initiate...... immune responses. Therefore, it is of great importance to be able to identify peptides that bind to MHC molecules, in order to understand the nature of immune responses and discover T cell epitopes useful for designing new vaccines and immunotherapies. MHC molecules in humans, referred to as human...... on machine learning techniques. Several MHC class I binding prediction algorithms have been developed and due to their high accuracy they are used by many immunologists to facilitate the conventional experimental process of epitope discovery. However, the accuracy of these methods depends on data defining...

  18. Permeability prediction in chalks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alam, Mohammad Monzurul; Fabricius, Ida Lykke; Prasad, Manika

    2011-01-01

    The velocity of elastic waves is the primary datum available for acquiring information about subsurface characteristics such as lithology and porosity. Cheap and quick (spatial coverage, ease of measurement) information of permeability can be achieved, if sonic velocity is used for permeability....... The relationships between permeability and porosity from core data were first examined using Kozeny’s equation. The data were analyzed for any correlations to the specific surface of the grain, Sg, and to the hydraulic property defined as the flow zone indicator (FZI). These two methods use two different approaches...... to enhance permeability prediction fromKozeny’s equation. The FZI is based on a concept of a tortuous flow path in a granular bed. The Sg concept considers the pore space that is exposed to fluid flow and models permeability resulting from effective flow parallel to pressure drop. The porosity-permeability...

  19. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents the state-of-the art: an analytical model which describes chloride profiles in concrete as function of depth...... makes physical sense for the design engineer, i.e. the achieved chloride diffusion coefficients at 1 year and 100 years, D1 and D100 respectively, and the corresponding achieved chloride concentrations at the exposed concrete surface, C1 and C100. Data from field exposure supports the assumption of time...... dependent surface chloride concentrations and the diffusion coefficients. Model parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash in marine atmospheric and submerged South Scandinavian environment are suggested in a companion paper based on 10 years field exposure data....

  20. Motor degradation prediction methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-12-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor`s duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures.

  1. Predictive coarse-graining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöberl, Markus; Zabaras, Nicholas; Koutsourelakis, Phaedon-Stelios

    2017-03-01

    We propose a data-driven, coarse-graining formulation in the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics. In contrast to existing techniques which are based on a fine-to-coarse map, we adopt the opposite strategy by prescribing a probabilistic coarse-to-fine map. This corresponds to a directed probabilistic model where the coarse variables play the role of latent generators of the fine scale (all-atom) data. From an information-theoretic perspective, the framework proposed provides an improvement upon the relative entropy method [1] and is capable of quantifying the uncertainty due to the information loss that unavoidably takes place during the coarse-graining process. Furthermore, it can be readily extended to a fully Bayesian model where various sources of uncertainties are reflected in the posterior of the model parameters. The latter can be used to produce not only point estimates of fine-scale reconstructions or macroscopic observables, but more importantly, predictive posterior distributions on these quantities. Predictive posterior distributions reflect the confidence of the model as a function of the amount of data and the level of coarse-graining. The issues of model complexity and model selection are seamlessly addressed by employing a hierarchical prior that favors the discovery of sparse solutions, revealing the most prominent features in the coarse-grained model. A flexible and parallelizable Monte Carlo - Expectation-Maximization (MC-EM) scheme is proposed for carrying out inference and learning tasks. A comparative assessment of the proposed methodology is presented for a lattice spin system and the SPC/E water model.

  2. Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. Results We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm, is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. Conclusion We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

  3. Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jonathan S.

    2010-01-01

    Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

  4. Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayakawa, Masashi, E-mail: hayakawa@hi-seismo-em.jp [Hayakawa Institute of Seismo Electomagnetics, Co. Ltd., University of Electro-Communications (UEC) Incubation Center, 1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu Tokyo, 182-8585 (Japan); Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center, UEC, Chofu Tokyo (Japan); Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, Information Systems Inc., 4-8-15, Minami-aoyama, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0062 (Japan); Fuji Security Systems. Co. Ltd., Iwato-cho 1, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo (Japan)

    2016-02-01

    Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQs prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.

  5. Emerging approaches in predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Luoping; McHale, Cliona M; Greene, Nigel; Snyder, Ronald D; Rich, Ivan N; Aardema, Marilyn J; Roy, Shambhu; Pfuhler, Stefan; Venkatactahalam, Sundaresan

    2014-12-01

    Predictive toxicology plays an important role in the assessment of toxicity of chemicals and the drug development process. While there are several well-established in vitro and in vivo assays that are suitable for predictive toxicology, recent advances in high-throughput analytical technologies and model systems are expected to have a major impact on the field of predictive toxicology. This commentary provides an overview of the state of the current science and a brief discussion on future perspectives for the field of predictive toxicology for human toxicity. Computational models for predictive toxicology, needs for further refinement and obstacles to expand computational models to include additional classes of chemical compounds are highlighted. Functional and comparative genomics approaches in predictive toxicology are discussed with an emphasis on successful utilization of recently developed model systems for high-throughput analysis. The advantages of three-dimensional model systems and stem cells and their use in predictive toxicology testing are also described.

  6. Useful theories make predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Stephen and Van Orden (this issue) propose that there is a complex system approach to cognitive science, and collectively the authors of the papers presented in this issue believe that this approach provides the means to drive a revolution in the science of the mind. Unfortunately, however illuminating, this explanation is absent and hyperbole is all too extensive. In contrast, I argue (1) that dynamic systems theory is not new to cognitive science and does not provide a basis for a revolution, (2) it is not necessary to reject cognitive science in order to explain the constraints imposed by the body and the environment, (3) it is not necessary, as Silberstein and Chemero (this issue) appear to do, to reject cognitive science in order to explain consciousness, and (4) our understanding of pragmatics is not advanced by Gibbs and Van Orden's (this issue) "self-organized criticality".? Any debate about the future of cognitive science could usefully focus on predictive adequacy. Unfortunately, this is not the approach taken by the authors of this issue.

  7. Protein Chemical Shift Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Larsen, Anders S

    2014-01-01

    The protein chemical shifts holds a large amount of information about the 3-dimensional structure of the protein. A number of chemical shift predictors based on the relationship between structures resolved with X-ray crystallography and the corresponding experimental chemical shifts have been developed. These empirical predictors are very accurate on X-ray structures but tends to be insensitive to small structural changes. To overcome this limitation it has been suggested to make chemical shift predictors based on quantum mechanical(QM) calculations. In this thesis the development of the QM derived chemical shift predictor Procs14 is presented. Procs14 is based on 2.35 million density functional theory(DFT) calculations on tripeptides and contains corrections for hydrogen bonding, ring current and the effect of the previous and following residue. Procs14 is capable at performing predictions for the 13CA, 13CB, 13CO, 15NH, 1HN and 1HA backbone atoms. In order to benchmark Procs14, a number of QM NMR calculatio...

  8. Predictions From Eternal Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leichenauer, Stefan

    We investigate the physics of eternal inflation, particularly the use of multiverse ideas to explain the observed values of the cosmological constant and the coincidences of cosmological timescales. We begin by reviewing eternal inflation, the multiverse, and the resulting measure problem. Then follows a detailed study of proposals to solve the measure problem, both analytical and numerical, including an analysis of their predictions for cosmological observables. A key outcome of this investigation is that the traditional anthropic calculations, which take into account the necessity of galaxies and heavy elements to produce observers, are redundant in our framework. The cosmological coincidence problem, the seemingly coincidental equality of the timescales of observation and of vacuum domination, is solved for the first time without appeal to detailed anthropic assumptions: very general geometric considerations do the job automatically. We also estimate a 10% likelihood that evidence for eternal inflation will be found in upcoming measurements of the energy density of the universe. Encouraged by this success, we go on to construct a modified version of the light-cone time measure which has conceptual advantages but also reproduces the phenomenology of its predecessor. We complete our study of the measure problem by noting that for a wide class of proposed solutions, including the one developed here, there is an implicit assumption being made about a catastrophic end to the universe. Finally, as a by-product of this research program we find geometries which violate some of the accepted common knowledge on holographic entropy bounds. We point this out and conjecture a general result.

  9. Predicting the unpredictable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonabeau, Eric

    2002-03-01

    The collective behavior of people in crowds, markets, and organizations has long been a mystery. Why, for instance, do employee bonuses sometimes lead to decreases in productivity? Why do some products generate tremendous buzz, seemingly out of nowhere, while others languish despite multimillion-dollar marketing campaigns? How could a simple clerical error snowball into a catastrophic loss that bankrupts a financial institution? Traditional approaches like spreadsheet and regression analyses have failed to explain such "emergent phenomena," says Eric Bonabeau, because they work from the top down, trying to apply global equations and frameworks to a particular situation. But the behavior of emergent phenomena, contends Bonabeau, is formed from the bottom up--starting with the local interactions of individuals who alter their actions in response to other participants. Together, the myriad interactions result in a group behavior that can easily elude any top-down analysis. But now, thanks to "agent-based modeling," some companies are finding ways to analyze--and even predict--emergent phenomena. Macy's, for instance, has used the technology to investigate better ways to design its department stores. Hewlett-Packard has run agent-based simulations to anticipate how changes in its hiring strategy would affect its corporate culture. And Société Générale has used the technology to determine the operational risk of its asset management group. This article discusses emergent phenomena in detail and explains why they have become more prevalent in recent years. In addition to providing real-world examples of companies that have improved their business practices through agent-based modeling, Bonabeau also examines the future of this technology and points to several fields that may be revolutionized by its use.

  10. Predictive regressions for macroeconomic data

    OpenAIRE

    Fukang Zhu; Zongwu Cai; Liang Peng

    2014-01-01

    Researchers have constantly asked whether stock returns can be predicted by some macroeconomic data. However, it is known that macroeconomic data may exhibit nonstationarity and/or heavy tails, which complicates existing testing procedures for predictability. In this paper we propose novel empirical likelihood methods based on some weighted score equations to test whether the monthly CRSP value-weighted index can be predicted by the log dividend-price ratio or the log earnings-price ratio. Th...

  11. Networked and Distributed Predictive Control

    CERN Document Server

    Christofides, Panagiotis D; De La Pena, David Munoz

    2011-01-01

    "Networked and Distributed Predictive Control" presents rigorous, yet practical, methods for the design of networked and distributed predictive control systems - the first book to do so. The design of model predictive control systems using Lyapunov-based techniques accounting for the influence of asynchronous and delayed measurements is followed by a treatment of networked control architecture development. This shows how networked control can augment dedicated control systems in a natural way and takes advantage of additional, potentially asynchronous and delayed measurements to main

  12. Total Ozone Prediction: Stratospheric Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Charles H.; Kawa, S. Ramdy; Douglass, Anne R.

    2003-01-01

    The correct prediction of total ozone as a function of latitude and season is extremely important for global models. This exercise tests the ability of a particular model to simulate ozone. The ozone production (P) and loss (L) will be specified from a well- established global model and will be used in all GCMs for subsequent prediction of ozone. This is the "B-3 Constrained Run" from M&MII. The exercise mostly tests a model stratospheric dynamics in the prediction of total ozone. The GCM predictions will be compared and contrasted with TOMS measurements.

  13. Prediction based on mean subset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik;

    2002-01-01

    , it is found that the proposed mean subset method has superior prediction performance than prediction based on the best subset method, and in some settings also better than the ridge regression and lasso methods. The conclusions drawn from the Monte Carlo study is corroborated in an example in which prediction......Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...

  14. A tutorial on conformal prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Shafer, Glenn

    2007-01-01

    Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of labels, typically containing $\\hat{y}$, that also contains $y$ with probability $1-\\epsilon$. Conformal prediction can be applied to any method for producing $\\hat{y}$: a nearest-neighbor method, a support-vector machine, ridge regression, etc. Conformal prediction is designed for an on-line setting in which labels are predicted successively, each one being revealed before the next is predicted. The most novel and valuable feature of conformal prediction is that if the successive examples are sampled independently from the same distribution, then the successive predictions will be right $1-\\epsilon$ of the time, even though they are based on an accumulating dataset rather than on independent datasets. In addition to the model under which successive examples are sampled indepen...

  15. Solar Cycle Predictions (Invited Review)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2012-11-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions, just as weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on low-Earth orbit spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as the reduced propellant load is consumed more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5 - 20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations of how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future are discussed.

  16. Risk prediction for invasive candidiasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armin Ahmed

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Over past few years, treatment of invasive candidiasis (IC has evolved from targeted therapy to prophylaxis, pre-emptive and empirical therapy. Numerous predisposing factors for IC have been grouped together in various combinations to design risk prediction models. These models in general have shown good negative predictive value, but poor positive predictive value. They are useful in selecting the population which is less likely to benefit from empirical antifungal therapy and thus prevent overuse of antifungal agents. Current article deals with various risk prediction models for IC and their external validation studies.

  17. Risk prediction for invasive candidiasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Armin; Azim, Afzal; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Marak, K Rungmei S K; Gurjar, Mohan

    2014-10-01

    Over past few years, treatment of invasive candidiasis (IC) has evolved from targeted therapy to prophylaxis, pre-emptive and empirical therapy. Numerous predisposing factors for IC have been grouped together in various combinations to design risk prediction models. These models in general have shown good negative predictive value, but poor positive predictive value. They are useful in selecting the population which is less likely to benefit from empirical antifungal therapy and thus prevent overuse of antifungal agents. Current article deals with various risk prediction models for IC and their external validation studies.

  18. PREDICT : model for prediction of survival in localized prostate cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkmeijer, Linda G W; Monninkhof, Evelyn M.; van Oort, Inge M.; van der Poel, Henk G.; de Meerleer, Gert; van Vulpen, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Current models for prediction of prostate cancer-specific survival do not incorporate all present-day interventions. In the present study, a pre-treatment prediction model for patients with localized prostate cancer was developed.Methods: From 1989 to 2008, 3383 patients were treated with I

  19. Predicting Marital Success with PREPARE: A Predictive Validity Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowers, Blaine J.; Olson, David H.

    1986-01-01

    Assessed the utility of the premarital inventory, PREPARE, in predicting marital success. Conducted a three-year follow-up study with couples (N=164) who took PREPARE during their engagement. Found that the PREPARE scores from three months before marriage could predict with 80-90% accuracy which couples were separated and divorced from those that…

  20. Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

    Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

  1. Predicting epileptic seizures in advance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negin Moghim

    Full Text Available Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6-0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling, is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance.

  2. Zephyr - the next generation prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Nielsen, Torben Skov

    2001-01-01

    Two of the most successful short-term prediction models (and the only ones in operational use at utilities) are going to be merged into one: the Risø model, developed by Landberg and the Wind Power Prediction Tool WPPT, developed at the Department of Mathematical Modelling IMM of the Danish Techn...

  3. Predictions for Excited Strange Baryons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernando, Ishara P.; Goity, Jose L. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (TJNAF), Newport News, VA (United States)

    2016-04-01

    An assessment is made of predictions for excited hyperon masses which follow from flavor symmetry and consistency with a 1/N c expansion of QCD. Such predictions are based on presently established baryonic resonances. Low lying hyperon resonances which do not seem to fit into the proposed scheme are discussed.

  4. Predictions of nuclear charge radii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, M.; Lu, Y.; Zhao, Y. M.; Arima, A.

    2016-12-01

    The nuclear charge radius is a fundamental property of an atomic nucleus. In this article we study the predictive power of empirical relations for experimental nuclear charge radii of neighboring nuclei and predict the unknown charge radii of 1085 nuclei based on the experimental CR2013 database within an uncertainty of 0.03 fm.

  5. Predicting Acoustics in Class Rooms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Claus Lynge; Rindel, Jens Holger

    2005-01-01

    Typical class rooms have fairly simple geometries, even so room acoustics in this type of room is difficult to predict using today's room acoustic computer modeling software. The reasons why acoustics of class rooms are harder to predict than acoustics of complicated concert halls might...

  6. Update on protein structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hubbard, T; Tramontano, A; Barton, G

    1996-01-01

    Computational tools for protein structure prediction are of great interest to molecular, structural and theoretical biologists due to a rapidly increasing number of protein sequences with no known structure. In October 1995, a workshop was held at IRBM to predict as much as possible about a numbe...

  7. Predicting responses in multiple environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malosetti Zunin, Marcos; Bustos-Korts, Daniela; Boer, Martin P.; Eeuwijk, van Fred A.

    2016-01-01

    Prediction of the phenotypes for a set of genotypes across multiple environments is a fundamental task in any plant breeding program. Genomic prediction (GP) can assist selection decisions by combining incomplete phenotypic information over multiple environments (MEs) with dense sets of markers.

  8. Solomonoff Prediction and Occam's Razor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterkenburg, T.F.

    2016-01-01

    Algorithmic information theory gives an idealized notion of compressibility that is often presented as an objective measure of simplicity. It is suggested at times that Solomonoff prediction, or algorithmic information theory in a predictive setting, can deliver an argument to justify Occam’s razor.

  9. Can Satellites Aid Earthquake Predictions?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    John Roach; 李晓辉

    2004-01-01

    @@ Earthquake prediction is an imprecise science, and to illustrate the point,many experts point to the story of Tangshen①, China. On July 28, 1976, a magnitude② 7. 6 earthquake struck the city of Tangshen, China, without warning. None of the signs of the successful prediction from a year and half earlier were present. An estimated 250,000 people died.

  10. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    CERN Document Server

    Beyer, T

    2001-01-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of parac...

  11. A Regenerative Prediction Algorithm for Indian Rainfall Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SEEMA MAHAJAN

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall forecasting is critical for the crop planning and water management strategies. Proposed study presents a novel approach for modelling time series precipitation data. The 51 years of Indian rainfall data is used for the development of the model. We use nonlinear predictive code based on 11th order with 240 coefficients. Coefficients are optimized using gradient descendent algorithm. Algorithm is tested using 40 years of rainfall training data. Prediction error tested outside training period is found less than1% for few months. Prediction period is extended to one year by including progressive predicted values in input samples using regenerative feedback algorithm. This model is applied for different training and testing periods with average error of 2% to 10%.

  12. SIFT missense predictions for genomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaser, Robert; Adusumalli, Swarnaseetha; Leng, Sim Ngak; Sikic, Mile; Ng, Pauline C

    2016-01-01

    The SIFT (sorting intolerant from tolerant) algorithm helps bridge the gap between mutations and phenotypic variations by predicting whether an amino acid substitution is deleterious. SIFT has been used in disease, mutation and genetic studies, and a protocol for its use has been previously published with Nature Protocols. This updated protocol describes SIFT 4G (SIFT for genomes), which is a faster version of SIFT that enables practical computations on reference genomes. Users can get predictions for single-nucleotide variants from their organism of interest using the SIFT 4G annotator with SIFT 4G's precomputed databases. The scope of genomic predictions is expanded, with predictions available for more than 200 organisms. Users can also run the SIFT 4G algorithm themselves. SIFT predictions can be retrieved for 6.7 million variants in 4 min once the database has been downloaded. If precomputed predictions are not available, the SIFT 4G algorithm can compute predictions at a rate of 2.6 s per protein sequence. SIFT 4G is available from http://sift-dna.org/sift4g.

  13. Toolbox for Protein Structure Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, Daniel Barry; McGuffin, Liam James

    2016-01-01

    Protein tertiary structure prediction algorithms aim to predict, from amino acid sequence, the tertiary structure of a protein. In silico protein structure prediction methods have become extremely important, as in vitro-based structural elucidation is unable to keep pace with the current growth of sequence databases due to high-throughput next-generation sequencing, which has exacerbated the gaps in our knowledge between sequences and structures.Here we briefly discuss protein tertiary structure prediction, the biennial competition for the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) and its role in shaping the field. We also discuss, in detail, our cutting-edge web-server method IntFOLD2-TS for tertiary structure prediction. Furthermore, we provide a step-by-step guide on using the IntFOLD2-TS web server, along with some real world examples, where the IntFOLD server can and has been used to improve protein tertiary structure prediction and aid in functional elucidation.

  14. Prediction of Competitive Microbial Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujikawa, Hiroshi

    2016-01-01

     Prediction of competitive microbial growth is becoming important for microbial food safety. There would be two approaches to predict competitive microbial growth with mathematical models. The first approach is the development of a growth model for competitive microbes. Among several candidates for the competition model considered, the combination of the primary growth model of the new logistic (NL) model and the competition model of the Lotka-Vorttera (LV) model showed the best performance in predicting microbial competitive growth in the mixed culture of two species. This system further successfully predicted the growth of three competitive species in mixed culture. The second approach is the application of the secondary model especially for the parameter of the maximum cell population in the primary growth model. The combination of the NL model and a polynomial model for the maximum population successfully predicted Salmonella growth in raw ground beef. This system further successfully predicted Salmonella growth in beef at various initial concentrations and temperatures. The first approach requires microbial growth data in monoculture for analysis. The second approach to the prediction of competitive growth from the viewpoint of microbial food safety would be more suitable for practical application.

  15. Numerical weather prediction model tuning via ensemble prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvinen, H.; Laine, M.; Ollinaho, P.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. NWP models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. Currently, numerical values of these parameters are specified manually. In a recent dual manuscript (QJRMS, revised) we developed a new concept and method for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters. The EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") method requires only minimal changes to the existing operational ensemble prediction infra-structure and it seems very cost-effective because practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating each member of the ensemble of predictions using different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In the presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an atmospheric general circulation model based ensemble prediction system show that the NWP model tuning capacity of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, a global top-end NWP model tuning exercise with preliminary results is published.

  16. The Theory of Linear Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Vaidyanathan, PP

    2007-01-01

    Linear prediction theory has had a profound impact in the field of digital signal processing. Although the theory dates back to the early 1940s, its influence can still be seen in applications today. The theory is based on very elegant mathematics and leads to many beautiful insights into statistical signal processing. Although prediction is only a part of the more general topics of linear estimation, filtering, and smoothing, this book focuses on linear prediction. This has enabled detailed discussion of a number of issues that are normally not found in texts. For example, the theory of vecto

  17. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    modelling strategy is applied to different training sets. For each modelling strategy we estimate a confidence score based on the same repeated bootstraps. A new decomposition of the expected Brier score is obtained, as well as the estimates of population average confidence scores. The latter can be used...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  18. Adaptive filtering prediction and control

    CERN Document Server

    Goodwin, Graham C

    2009-01-01

    Preface1. Introduction to Adaptive TechniquesPart 1. Deterministic Systems2. Models for Deterministic Dynamical Systems3. Parameter Estimation for Deterministic Systems4. Deterministic Adaptive Prediction5. Control of Linear Deterministic Systems6. Adaptive Control of Linear Deterministic SystemsPart 2. Stochastic Systems7. Optimal Filtering and Prediction8. Parameter Estimation for Stochastic Dynamic Systems9. Adaptive Filtering and Prediction10. Control of Stochastic Systems11. Adaptive Control of Stochastic SystemsAppendicesA. A Brief Review of Some Results from Systems TheoryB. A Summary o

  19. Arctic Sea Ice Predictability and the Sea Ice Prediction Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiggins, H. V.; Stroeve, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    Drastic reductions in Arctic sea ice cover have increased the demand for Arctic sea ice predictions by a range of stakeholders, including local communities, resource managers, industry and the public. The science of sea-ice prediction has been challenged to keep up with these developments. Efforts such as the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO; http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook) and the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook have provided a forum for the international sea-ice prediction and observing community to explore and compare different approaches. The SIO, originally organized by the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH), is now managed by the new Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), which is building a collaborative network of scientists and stakeholders to improve arctic sea ice prediction. The SIO synthesizes predictions from a variety of methods, including heuristic and from a statistical and/or dynamical model. In a recent study, SIO data from 2008 to 2013 were analyzed. The analysis revealed that in some years the predictions were very successful, in other years they were not. Years that were anomalous compared to the long-term trend have proven more difficult to predict, regardless of which method was employed. This year, in response to feedback from users and contributors to the SIO, several enhancements have been made to the SIO reports. One is to encourage contributors to provide spatial probability maps of sea ice cover in September and the first day each location becomes ice-free; these are an example of subseasonal to seasonal, local-scale predictions. Another enhancement is a separate analysis of the modeling contributions. In the June 2014 SIO report, 10 of 28 outlooks were produced from models that explicitly simulate sea ice from dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models. Half of the models included fully-coupled (atmosphere, ice, and ocean) models that additionally employ data assimilation. Both of these subsets (models and coupled models with data

  20. Predicting Success in Elementary Algebra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogull, R. G.; Rosengarten, W., Jr.

    1974-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a device for predicting student success in a high school Elementary Algebra course. It was intended to assist guidance counselors in advising students in selecting the most appropriate mathematics course. (Editor)

  1. Trading Network Predicts Stock Price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  2. Time-predictable Stack Caching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abbaspourseyedi, Sahar

    complicated and less imprecise. Time-predictable computer architectures provide solutions to this problem. As accesses to the data in caches are one source of timing unpredictability, devising methods for improving the timepredictability of caches are important. Stack data, with statically analyzable......Embedded systems are computing systems for controlling and interacting with physical environments. Embedded systems with special timing constraints where the system needs to meet deadlines are referred to as real-time systems. In hard real-time systems, missing a deadline causes the system to fail...... addresses, provides an opportunity to predict and tighten the WCET of accesses to data in caches. In this thesis, we introduce the time-predictable stack cache design and implementation within a time-predictable processor. We introduce several optimizations to our design for tightening the WCET while...

  3. Shortcomings in wheat yield predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Mikhail A.; Mitchell, Rowan A. C.; Whitmore, Andrew P.; Hawkesford, Malcolm J.; Parry, Martin A. J.; Shewry, Peter R.

    2012-06-01

    Predictions of a 40-140% increase in wheat yield by 2050, reported in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, are based on a simplistic approach that ignores key factors affecting yields and hence are seriously misleading.

  4. New Tool to Predict Glaucoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... News About Us Donate In This Section A New Tool to Predict Glaucoma email Send this article ... determine if a patient has glaucoma. Recently, a new tool has become available to eye care specialists ...

  5. Trading network predicts stock price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-16

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  6. Dividend Predictability around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    in the time-series dimension (time variation in dividend yields strongly predicts future dividend growth rates) and in the cross- country dimension (sorting countries into portfolios depending on their lagged dividend yield produces a spread in dividend growth rates of more than 20% p.a.). In an economic...... assessment of this finding, we show that cash flow predictability is stronger in smaller and medium- sized countries because these countries also have more volatile cash flow growth and higher idiosyncratic return volatility....

  7. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beyer, Theresa

    2001-07-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of paracetamol (acetaminophen), the influence of the variations of the molecular model on the crystal structure lattice energy minima, has also been studied. The general problem of prediction methods based on the assumption that the experimental thermodynamically stable polymorph corresponds to the global lattice energy minimum, is that more hypothetical low lattice energy structures are found within a few kJ mol{sup -1} of the global minimum than are likely to be experimentally observed polymorphs. This is illustrated by the results for molecule I, 3-oxabicyclo(3.2.0)hepta-1,4-diene, studied for the first international blindtest for small organic crystal structures organised by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC) in May 1999. To reduce the number of predicted polymorphs, additional factors to thermodynamic criteria have to be considered. Therefore the elastic constants and vapour growth morphologies have been calculated for the lowest lattice energy

  8. GIPSy: Genomic island prediction software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Siomar C; Geyik, Hakan; Ramos, Rommel T J; de Sá, Pablo H C G; Barbosa, Eudes G V; Baumbach, Jan; Figueiredo, Henrique C P; Miyoshi, Anderson; Tauch, Andreas; Silva, Artur; Azevedo, Vasco

    2016-08-20

    Bacteria are highly diverse organisms that are able to adapt to a broad range of environments and hosts due to their high genomic plasticity. Horizontal gene transfer plays a pivotal role in this genome plasticity and in evolution by leaps through the incorporation of large blocks of genome sequences, ordinarily known as genomic islands (GEIs). GEIs may harbor genes encoding virulence, metabolism, antibiotic resistance and symbiosis-related functions, namely pathogenicity islands (PAIs), metabolic islands (MIs), resistance islands (RIs) and symbiotic islands (SIs). Although many software for the prediction of GEIs exist, they only focus on PAI prediction and present other limitations, such as complicated installation and inconvenient user interfaces. Here, we present GIPSy, the genomic island prediction software, a standalone and user-friendly software for the prediction of GEIs, built on our previously developed pathogenicity island prediction software (PIPS). We also present four application cases in which we crosslink data from literature to PAIs, MIs, RIs and SIs predicted by GIPSy. Briefly, GIPSy correctly predicted the following previously described GEIs: 13 PAIs larger than 30kb in Escherichia coli CFT073; 1 MI for Burkholderia pseudomallei K96243, which seems to be a miscellaneous island; 1 RI of Acinetobacter baumannii AYE, named AbaR1; and, 1 SI of Mesorhizobium loti MAFF303099 presenting a mosaic structure. GIPSy is the first life-style-specific genomic island prediction software to perform analyses of PAIs, MIs, RIs and SIs, opening a door for a better understanding of bacterial genome plasticity and the adaptation to new traits.

  9. High sensitivity RNA pseudoknot prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Xiaolu; Ali, Hesham

    2006-01-01

    Most ab initio pseudoknot predicting methods provide very few folding scenarios for a given RNA sequence and have low sensitivities. RNA researchers, in many cases, would rather sacrifice the specificity for a much higher sensitivity for pseudoknot detection. In this study, we introduce the Pseudoknot Local Motif Model and Dynamic Partner Sequence Stacking (PLMM_DPSS) algorithm which predicts all PLM model pseudoknots within an RNA sequence in a neighboring-region-interference-free fashion. T...

  10. Prediction of the Chandler wobble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zotov, L.; Bizouard, C.

    2015-08-01

    Chandler wobble amplitude have been decreasing in 2010s as in 1930s. We try to predict its future behaviour through prediction of its complex envelope. The excitation of the Chandler wobble (ChW) reconstructed by Panteleev's filter was also analized. The equation for the complex envelope propagation through the Euler-Liouville equation was derived. Similarities with the climate change characteristics are discussed.

  11. Predictive Characteristics of Malignant Pheochromocytoma

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Junsoo; Song, Cheryn; Park, Myungchan; Yoo, Sangjun; Park, Se Jun; Hong, SeokJun; Hong, Bumsik; Kim, Choung-Soo; Ahn, Hanjong

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The prognosis of patients with malignant pheochromocytoma is poor, but the predictive factors are not well understood. We aimed to identify the clinical characteristics predictive of malignancy after initial surgical removal in patients with pheochromocytoma. Materials and Methods We retrospectively reviewed the records of 152 patients diagnosed with pheochromocytoma, including 5 (3.3%) with metastasis at the time of the initial surgical excision and 12 (7.9%) who developed metastasis...

  12. Seasonal Drought Prediction in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, R.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is among the most costly natural disasters in India. Seasonal prediction of drought can assist planners to manage agriculture and water resources. Such information can be valuable for a country like India where 60% of agriculture is rain-fed. Here we evaluate precipitation and temperature forecast from the NCEP's CFSV2 for seasonal drought prediction in India. We demonstrate the utility of the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature for drought forecast at 1-2 months lead time at a high spatial resolution. Precipitation from CFSv2 showed moderate correlations with observed up to two months lead. For one month lead, we found a significant correlation between CFSv2 and observed precipitation during winter season. Air temperature from the CFSv2 showed a good correlation with observed temperature during the winter. We forced the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with the CFSv2 forecast of precipitation and air temperature to generate forecast of hydrologic variables such as soil moisture and total runoff. We find that errors of the prediction reduce for the two month lead time in the majority of the study domain except the northern India. Skills of Initial Hydrologic Conditions combined with moderate skills of forcings based on the CFSv2 showed ability of drought prediction in India. The developed system was able to successfully predict observed top layer soil moisture and observed drought based on satellite remote sensing in India.

  13. Strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    In order to effectively improve numerical prediction level by using current models and data, the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction (DAP) is deeply studied in the present paper. A new idea to predict the prediction errors of dynamical model on the basis of historical analogue information is put forward so as to transform the dynamical prediction problem into the estimation problem of prediction errors. In terms of such an idea, a new prediction method of final analogue correction of errors (FACE) is developed. Furthermore, the FACE is applied to extra-seasonal prediction experiments on an operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation show that the FACE can to some extent reduce prediction errors, recover prediction variances, and improve prediction skills. Besides, sensitive experiments also show that predictions based on the FACE are evidently influenced by the number of analogues, analogue-selected variables and analogy metric.

  14. Neural Elements for Predictive Coding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart SHIPP

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backwards in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many ‘illusory’ instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forwards and backwards pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry – that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions – has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic ‘canonical microcircuit’ and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b rapid technical advances made

  15. Predictive mechanisms in idiom comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vespignani, Francesco; Canal, Paolo; Molinaro, Nicola; Fonda, Sergio; Cacciari, Cristina

    2010-08-01

    Prediction is pervasive in human cognition and plays a central role in language comprehension. At an electrophysiological level, this cognitive function contributes substantially in determining the amplitude of the N400. In fact, the amplitude of the N400 to words within a sentence has been shown to depend on how predictable those words are: The more predictable a word, the smaller the N400 elicited. However, predictive processing can be based on different sources of information that allow anticipation of upcoming constituents and integration in context. In this study, we investigated the ERPs elicited during the comprehension of idioms, that is, prefabricated multiword strings stored in semantic memory. When a reader recognizes a string of words as an idiom before the idiom ends, she or he can develop expectations concerning the incoming idiomatic constituents. We hypothesized that the expectations driven by the activation of an idiom might differ from those driven by discourse-based constraints. To this aim, we compared the ERP waveforms elicited by idioms and two literal control conditions. The results showed that, in both cases, the literal conditions exhibited a more negative potential than the idiomatic condition. Our analyses suggest that before idiom recognition the effect is due to modulation of the N400 amplitude, whereas after idiom recognition a P300 for the idiomatic sentence has a fundamental role in the composition of the effect. These results suggest that two distinct predictive mechanisms are at work during language comprehension, based respectively on probabilistic information and on categorical template matching.

  16. Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

    Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

  17. Intelligent Prediction of Ship Maneuvering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslaw Lacki

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the author presents an idea of the intelligent ship maneuvering prediction system with the usage of neuroevolution. This may be also be seen as the ship handling system that simulates a learning process of an autonomous control unit, created with artificial neural network. The control unit observes input signals and calculates the values of required parameters of the vessel maneuvering in confined waters. In neuroevolution such units are treated as individuals in population of artificial neural networks, which through environmental sensing and evolutionary algorithms learn to perform given task efficiently. The main task of the system is to learn continuously and predict the values of a navigational parameters of the vessel after certain amount of time, regarding an influence of its environment. The result of a prediction may occur as a warning to navigator to aware him about incoming threat.

  18. High sensitivity RNA pseudoknot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaolu; Ali, Hesham

    2007-01-01

    Most ab initio pseudoknot predicting methods provide very few folding scenarios for a given RNA sequence and have low sensitivities. RNA researchers, in many cases, would rather sacrifice the specificity for a much higher sensitivity for pseudoknot detection. In this study, we introduce the Pseudoknot Local Motif Model and Dynamic Partner Sequence Stacking (PLMM_DPSS) algorithm which predicts all PLM model pseudoknots within an RNA sequence in a neighboring-region-interference-free fashion. The PLM model is derived from the existing Pseudobase entries. The innovative DPSS approach calculates the optimally lowest stacking energy between two partner sequences. Combined with the Mfold, PLMM_DPSS can also be used in predicting complicated pseudoknots. The test results of PLMM_DPSS, PKNOTS, iterated loop matching, pknotsRG and HotKnots with Pseudobase sequences have shown that PLMM_DPSS is the most sensitive among the five methods. PLMM_DPSS also provides manageable pseudoknot folding scenarios for further structure determination.

  19. Algorithms for Protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin

    The problem of predicting the three-dimensional structure of a protein given its amino acid sequence is one of the most important open problems in bioinformatics. One of the carbon atoms in amino acids is the C-atom and the overall structure of a protein is often represented by a so-called C...... is competitive in quality and speed with other state-of-the-art decoy generation algorithms. Our third C-trace reconstruction approach is based on bee-colony optimization [24]. We demonstrate why this algorithm has some important properties that makes it suitable for protein structure prediction. Our approach......-trace. Here we present three different approaches for reconstruction of C-traces from predictable measures. In our first approach [63, 62], the C-trace is positioned on a lattice and a tabu-search algorithm is applied to find minimum energy structures. The energy function is based on half-sphere-exposure (HSE...

  20. Algorithms for Drug Sensitivity Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos De Niz

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Precision medicine entails the design of therapies that are matched for each individual patient. Thus, predictive modeling of drug responses for specific patients constitutes a significant challenge for personalized therapy. In this article, we consider a review of approaches that have been proposed to tackle the drug sensitivity prediction problem especially with respect to personalized cancer therapy. We first discuss modeling approaches that are based on genomic characterizations alone and further the discussion by including modeling techniques that integrate both genomic and functional information. A comparative analysis of the prediction performance of four representative algorithms, elastic net, random forest, kernelized Bayesian multi-task learning and deep learning, reflecting the broad classes of regularized linear, ensemble, kernelized and neural network-based models, respectively, has been included in the paper. The review also considers the challenges that need to be addressed for successful implementation of the algorithms in clinical practice.

  1. Link Prediction via Matrix Completion

    CERN Document Server

    Pech, Ratha; Pan, Liming; Cheng, Hong; Zhou, Tao

    2016-01-01

    Inspired by practical importance of social networks, economic networks, biological networks and so on, studies on large and complex networks have attracted a surge of attentions in the recent years. Link prediction is a fundamental issue to understand the mechanisms by which new links are added to the networks. We introduce the method of robust principal component analysis (robust PCA) into link prediction, and estimate the missing entries of the adjacency matrix. On one hand, our algorithm is based on the sparsity and low rank property of the matrix, on the other hand, it also performs very well when the network is dense. This is because a relatively dense real network is also sparse in comparison to the complete graph. According to extensive experiments on real networks from disparate fields, when the target network is connected and sufficiently dense, whatever it is weighted or unweighted, our method is demonstrated to be very effective and with prediction accuracy being considerably improved comparing wit...

  2. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelle R Dalenberg

    Full Text Available In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively. After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  3. Penetrating Annulus Fibrosus Injuries Affect Dynamic Compressive Behaviors of the Intervertebral Disc Via Altered Fluid Flow: An Analytical Interpretation

    OpenAIRE

    Michalek, Arthur J.; Iatridis, James C.

    2011-01-01

    Extensive experimental work on the effects of penetrating annular injuries indicated that large injuries impact axial compressive properties of small animal intervertebral discs, yet there is some disagreement regarding the sensitivity of mechanical tests to small injury sizes. In order to understand the mechanism of injury size sensitivity, this study proposed a simple one dimensional model coupling elastic deformations in the annulus with fluid flow into and out of the nucleus through both ...

  4. Prediction of eyespot infection risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Váòová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to design a prediction model for eyespot (Tapesia yallundae infection based on climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, air humidity. Data from experiment years 1994-2002 were used to study correlations between the eyespot infection index and individual weather characteristics. The model of prediction was constructed using multiple regression when a separate parameter is assigned to each factor, i.e. the frequency of days with optimum temperatures, humidity, and precipitation. The correlation between relative air humidity and precipitation and the infection index is significant.

  5. Methods for Predicting Stock Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martha Cecilia García

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a literature review on methods that have been used in the last two decades to predict Stock Market Indexes. Methods studied range from those enabling to grab the linear characteristics present in the stock market indexes, going through those that focus on non-linear features and finally hybrid methods that are more robust, since they capture linear and non-linear features. In addition, this research includes methods that use macroeconomic variables to predict indexes from different stock exchanges around the world.

  6. Prediction of dental caries activity

    OpenAIRE

    Crossner, Claes-Göran

    1980-01-01

    The aim of the present thesis was to find a test for prediction of caries activity which would be useful in routine clinical work.Correlations between oral health, general health, food habits and socioeconomic conditions were investigated in 4- and 8-year-old children. It was found that the salivary secretion rate and the prevalence of oral lactobacilli were factors which might be useful in caries prediction.In 5- and 8-year-old children negative correlations between caries frequency and secr...

  7. Wind energy prediction; Prediccion eolica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiberta, B. J.; Florez, M. V. E.

    2004-07-01

    On March 12th, 2004 the Spanish Government modified the legal situation of the renewable energies following the approval of RD 436/2004. This makes necessary the development of wind energy prediction models for its entrance to the daily electricity market like the conventional energies. The improvement of physical models, meteorological models, or a combination of both, is necessary for the prediction of the wind generation. This will guarantee the wind energy full utilization and the participation in the electrical market, as well as the remuneration of the complementary services and the regulation of reactive electricity. In this way wind energy turns into a perfectly manageable one. (Author)

  8. Dinosaur fossils predict body temperatures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James F Gillooly

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Perhaps the greatest mystery surrounding dinosaurs concerns whether they were endotherms, ectotherms, or some unique intermediate form. Here we present a model that yields estimates of dinosaur body temperature based on ontogenetic growth trajectories obtained from fossil bones. The model predicts that dinosaur body temperatures increased with body mass from approximately 25 degrees C at 12 kg to approximately 41 degrees C at 13,000 kg. The model also successfully predicts observed increases in body temperature with body mass for extant crocodiles. These results provide direct evidence that dinosaurs were reptiles that exhibited inertial homeothermy.

  9. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Data from a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) demonstrating using predictive computational...

  10. Focus on astronomical predictable events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Aase Roland

    2006-01-01

    At the Steno Museum Planetarium we have for many occasions used a countdown clock to get focus om astronomical events. A countdown clock can provide actuality to predictable events, for example The Venus Transit, Opportunity landing on Mars and The Solar Eclipse. The movement of the clock attracs...

  11. Solution Patterns Predicting Pythagorean Triples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezenweani, Ugwunna Louis

    2013-01-01

    Pythagoras Theorem is an old mathematical treatise that has traversed the school curricula from secondary to tertiary levels. The patterns it produced are quite interesting that many researchers have tried to generate a kind of predictive approach to identifying triples. Two attempts, namely Diophantine equation and Brahmagupta trapezium presented…

  12. Prediction of Malaysian monthly GDP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei; Yeing, Pan Wei

    2015-12-01

    The paper attempts to use a method based on multivariate power-normal distribution to predict the Malaysian Gross Domestic Product next month. Letting r(t) be the vector consisting of the month-t values on m selected macroeconomic variables, and GDP, we model the month-(t+1) GDP to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1),…,r(t-l+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a [(m+1)l+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. The 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution may be used to form an out-of sample prediction interval. This interval together with the mean of the conditional distribution may be used to predict the month-(t+1) GDP. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), estimated coverage probability and average length of the prediction interval are used as the criterions for selecting the suitable lag value l-1 and the subset from a pool of 17 macroeconomic variables. It is found that the relatively better models would be those of which 2 ≤ l ≤ 3, and involving one or two of the macroeconomic variables given by Market Indicative Yield, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Import Trade.

  13. Predicting Leakage in Labyrinth Seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, G. L.; Rhode, D. L.; Cogan, K. C.; Chi, D.; Demko, J.

    1985-01-01

    Analytical and empirical methods evaluated. 264-page report presents comprehensive information on leakage in labyrinth seals. Summarizes previous analyses of leakage, reviews leakage tests conducted by authors and evaluates various analytical and experimental methods of determining leakage and discusses leakage prediction techniques.

  14. Navy Nearshore Ocean Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Visualization Studio. Oceanography | September 2014 81 Predicting the dynamics of the nearshore environment is important to many different aspects...insertions/extractions. Wave and current conditions, along with local geological conditions, can determine the extent of mine burial , which can impact...and models, including the Simulating WAves ABSTR AC T. Knowledge of the nearshore ocean environment is important for naval operations, including

  15. Predicting severity of paranoid schizophrenia

    OpenAIRE

    Kolesnichenko Elena Vladimirovna

    2015-01-01

    Clinical symptoms, course and outcomes of paranoid schizophrenia are polymorphic. 206 cases of paranoid schizophrenia were investigated. Clinical predictors were collected from hospital records and interviews. Quantitative assessment of the severity of schizophrenia as special indexes was used. Schizoid, epileptoid, psychasthenic and conformal accentuation of personality in the premorbid, early onset of psychosis, paranoid and hallucinatory-paranoid variants of onset predicted more expressed ...

  16. Working postures: prediction and evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delleman, N.J.

    1999-01-01

    To date, workstation designers cannot see the effects of a design on working posture before a mock-up/prototype is available. At that moment, usually the margin for creating the conditions required for adopting favourable working postures is still very limited. Posture prediction at an early design

  17. Detecting failure of climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2016-01-01

    The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

  18. Detecting failure of climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2016-09-01

    The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

  19. Predictability of Mobile Phone Associations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2010-01-01

    Prediction and understanding of human behavior is of high importance in many modern applications and research areas ranging from context-aware services, wireless resource allocation to social sciences. In this study we collect a novel dataset using standard mobile phones and analyze how the predi......Prediction and understanding of human behavior is of high importance in many modern applications and research areas ranging from context-aware services, wireless resource allocation to social sciences. In this study we collect a novel dataset using standard mobile phones and analyze how...... the predictability of mobile sensors, acting as proxies for humans, change with time scale and sensor type such as GSM and WLAN. Applying recent information theoretic methods, it is demonstrated that an upper bound on predictability is relatively high for all sensors given the complete history (typically above 90...... representation, and general behavior. This is of vital interest in the development of context-aware services which rely on forecasting based on mobile phone sensors....

  20. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalenberg, J.R.; Gutjar, S.; Horst, ter G.J.; Graaf, de C.; Renken, R.; Jager, G.

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Th

  1. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...

  2. Predicting Volleyball Serve-Reception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulo, Ana; Zaal, Frank T J M; Fonseca, Sofia; Araujo, Duarte

    2016-01-01

    Serve and serve-reception performance have predicted success in volleyball. Given the impact of serve-reception on the game, we aimed at understanding what it is in the serve and receiver's actions that determines the selection of the type of pass used in serve-reception and its efficacy. Four high-

  3. Can Creativity Predict Cognitive Reserve?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmiero, Massimiliano; Di Giacomo, Dina; Passafiume, Domenico

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive reserve relies on the ability to effectively cope with aging and brain damage by using alternate processes to approach tasks when standard approaches are no longer available. In this study, the issue if creativity can predict cognitive reserve has been explored. Forty participants (mean age: 61 years) filled out: the Cognitive Reserve…

  4. Making predictions skill level analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katarína, Krišková; Marián, Kireš

    2017-01-01

    The current trend in the education is focused on skills that are cross-subject and have a great importance for the pupil future life. Pupils should acquire different types of skills during their education to be prepared for future careers and life in the 21st century. Physics as a subject offers many opportunities for pupils' skills development. One of the skills that are expected to be developed in physics and also in other sciences is making predictions. The prediction, in the meaning of the argument about what may happen in the future, is an integral part of the empirical cognition, in which students confront existing knowledge and experience with new, hitherto unknown and surprising phenomena. The extent of the skill is the formulation of hypotheses, which is required in the upper secondary physics education. In the contribution, the prediction skill is specified and its eventual levels are classified. Authors focus on the tools for skill level determination based on the analysis of pupils` worksheets. Worksheets are the part of the educational activities conducted within the Inquiry Science Laboratory Steelpark. Based on the formulation of pupils' prediction the pupils thinking can be seen and their understanding of the topic, as well as preconceptions and misconceptions.

  5. Predictive medical information and underwriting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodge, John H

    2007-01-01

    Medical underwriting involves the application of actuarial science by analyzing medical information to predict the future risk of a claim. The objective is that individuals with like risk are treated in a like manner so that the premium paid is proportional to the risk of future claim.

  6. Predictive implications of Gompertz's law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Peter; Roehner, Bertrand M.

    2016-04-01

    Gompertz's law tells us that for humans above the age of 35 the death rate increases exponentially with a doubling time of about 10 years. Here, we show that the same law continues to hold up to age 106. At that age the death rate is about 50%. Beyond 106 there is so far no convincing statistical evidence available because the number of survivors are too small even in large nations. However, assuming that Gompertz's law continues to hold beyond 106, we conclude that the mortality rate becomes equal to 1 at age 120 (meaning that there are 1000 deaths in a population of one thousand). In other words, the upper bound of human life is near 120. The existence of this fixed-point has interesting implications. It allows us to predict the form of the relationship between death rates at age 35 and the doubling time of Gompertz's law. In order to test this prediction, we first carry out a transversal analysis for a sample of countries comprising both industrialized and developing nations. As further confirmation, we also develop a longitudinal analysis using historical data over a time period of almost two centuries. Another prediction arising from this fixed-point model, is that, above a given population threshold, the lifespan of the oldest persons is independent of the size of their national community. This prediction is also supported by empirical evidence.

  7. Bankruptcy Prediction with Rough Sets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C. Bioch (Cor); V. Popova (Viara)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThe bankruptcy prediction problem can be considered an or dinal classification problem. The classical theory of Rough Sets describes objects by discrete attributes, and does not take into account the order- ing of the attributes values. This paper proposes a modification of the Rough Set

  8. Cast iron - a predictable material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg C. Sturm

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available High strength compacted graphite iron (CGI or alloyed cast iron components are substituting previously used non-ferrous castings in automotive power train applications. The mechanical engineering industry has recognized the value in substituting forged or welded structures with stiff and light-weight cast iron castings. New products such as wind turbines have opened new markets for an entire suite of highly reliable ductile iron cast components. During the last 20 years, casting process simulation has developed from predicting hot spots and solidification to an integral assessment tool for foundries for the entire manufacturing route of castings. The support of the feeding related layout of the casting is still one of the most important duties for casting process simulation. Depending on the alloy poured, different feeding behaviors and self-feeding capabilities need to be considered to provide a defect free casting. Therefore, it is not enough to base the prediction of shrinkage defects solely on hot spots derived from temperature fields. To be able to quantitatively predict these defects, solidification simulation had to be combined with density and mass transport calculations, in order to evaluate the impact of the solidification morphology on the feeding behavior as well as to consider alloy dependent feeding ranges. For cast iron foundries, the use of casting process simulation has become an important instrument to predict the robustness and reliability of their processes, especially since the influence of alloying elements, melting practice and metallurgy need to be considered to quantify the special shrinkage and solidification behavior of cast iron. This allows the prediction of local structures, phases and ultimately the local mechanical properties of cast irons, to asses casting quality in the foundry but also to make use of this quantitative information during design of the casting. Casting quality issues related to thermally driven

  9. Summertime Thunderstorms Prediction in Belarus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapo, Palina; Sokolovskaya, Yaroslava; Krasouski, Aliaksandr; Svetashev, Alexander; Turishev, Leonid; Barodka, Siarhei

    2015-04-01

    Mesoscale modeling with the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) system makes it possible to predict thunderstorm formation events by direct numerical simulation. In the present study, we analyze the feasibility and quality of thunderstorm prediction on the territory of Belarus for the summer period of 2014 based on analysis of several characteristic parameters in WRF modeling results that can serve as indicators of thunderstorms formation. These parameters include vertical velocity distribution, convective available potential energy (CAPE), K-index, SWEAT-index, Thompson index, lifted condensation level (LCL), and others, all of them being indicators of favorable atmospheric conditions for thunderstorms development. We perform mesoscale simulations of several cases of thunderstorm development in Belarus with WRF-ARW modeling system using 3 km grid spacing, WSM6 microphysics parameterization and explicit convection (no convective parameterization). Typical modeling duration makes 48 hours, which is equivalent to next-day thunderstorm prediction in operational use. We focus our attention to most prominent cases of intense thunderstorms in Minsk. For validation purposes, we use radar and satellite data in addition to surface observations. In summertime, the territory of Belarus is quite often under the influence of atmospheric fronts and stationary anticyclones. In this study, we subdivide thunderstorm cases under consideration into 2 categories: thunderstorms related to free convection and those related to forced convection processes. Our aim is to study the differences in thunderstorm indicator parameters between these two categories of thunderstorms in order to elaborate a set of parameters that can be used for operational thunderstorm forecasting. For that purpose, we analyze characteristic features of thunderstorms development on cold atmospheric fronts as well as thunderstorms formation in stable air masses. Modeling results demonstrate good predictive skill

  10. Predictive Terminal Guidance With Tuning of Prediction Horizon & Constrained Control .

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Talole

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available Continvojs time-predictive control approach is employed to formulate an output tracking nonlinear, optimal, terminal guidance ,law for re-entry vehicles. The notable features of this formulation are that the system equations are not linearised and the evaluation of the guidanceequations does not need the information of vehicle parameters, such as drag and mass. The formulation allows to impose the physical constrains on the control inputs, i..e. on the demanded lateral acceleliations through a saturation mapping and the controls are obtained using a fixed pointiteration algorithm which converges typically in a few iterations. Further, a simple method of tuning the prediction horizon needed in the guidance equations is presented. Numerical simulations show that the guidance law achieves almost zero terminal errors in all states despite large errors in initial Conditions.

  11. Multiphase, multicomponent phase behavior prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadmohammadi, Younas

    Accurate prediction of phase behavior of fluid mixtures in the chemical industry is essential for designing and operating a multitude of processes. Reliable generalized predictions of phase equilibrium properties, such as pressure, temperature, and phase compositions offer an attractive alternative to costly and time consuming experimental measurements. The main purpose of this work was to assess the efficacy of recently generalized activity coefficient models based on binary experimental data to (a) predict binary and ternary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems, and (b) characterize liquid-liquid equilibrium systems. These studies were completed using a diverse binary VLE database consisting of 916 binary and 86 ternary systems involving 140 compounds belonging to 31 chemical classes. Specifically the following tasks were undertaken: First, a comprehensive assessment of the two common approaches (gamma-phi (gamma-ϕ) and phi-phi (ϕ-ϕ)) used for determining the phase behavior of vapor-liquid equilibrium systems is presented. Both the representation and predictive capabilities of these two approaches were examined, as delineated form internal and external consistency tests of 916 binary systems. For the purpose, the universal quasi-chemical (UNIQUAC) model and the Peng-Robinson (PR) equation of state (EOS) were used in this assessment. Second, the efficacy of recently developed generalized UNIQUAC and the nonrandom two-liquid (NRTL) for predicting multicomponent VLE systems were investigated. Third, the abilities of recently modified NRTL model (mNRTL2 and mNRTL1) to characterize liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) phase conditions and attributes, including phase stability, miscibility, and consolute point coordinates, were assessed. The results of this work indicate that the ϕ-ϕ approach represents the binary VLE systems considered within three times the error of the gamma-ϕ approach. A similar trend was observed for the for the generalized model predictions using

  12. Predictive Control of Speededness in Adaptive Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, Wim J.

    2009-01-01

    An adaptive testing method is presented that controls the speededness of a test using predictions of the test takers' response times on the candidate items in the pool. Two different types of predictions are investigated: posterior predictions given the actual response times on the items already administered and posterior predictions that use the…

  13. Neural Networks for protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohr, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This is a review about neural network applications in bioinformatics. Especially the applications to protein structure prediction, e.g. prediction of secondary structures, prediction of surface structure, fold class recognition and prediction of the 3-dimensional structure of protein backbones...

  14. Colored Noise Prediction Based on Neural Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Fei; Zhang Xiaohui

    2003-01-01

    A method for predicting colored noise by introducing prediction of nonhnear time series is presented By adopting three kinds of neural networks prediction models, the colored noise prediction is studied through changing the filter bandwidth for stochastic noise and the sampling rate for colored noise The results show that colored noise can be predicted The prediction error decreases with the increasing of the sampling rate or the narrowing of the filter bandwidth. If the parameters are selected properly, the prediction precision can meet the requirement of engineering implementation. The results offer a new reference way for increasing the ability for detecting weak signal in signal processing system

  15. Algorithms for Protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin

    -trace. Here we present three different approaches for reconstruction of C-traces from predictable measures. In our first approach [63, 62], the C-trace is positioned on a lattice and a tabu-search algorithm is applied to find minimum energy structures. The energy function is based on half-sphere-exposure (HSE......) is more robust than standard Monte Carlo search. In the second approach for reconstruction of C-traces, an exact branch and bound algorithm has been developed [67, 65]. The model is discrete and makes use of secondary structure predictions, HSE, CN and radius of gyration. We show how to compute good lower...... bounds for partial structures very fast. Using these lower bounds, we are able to find global minimum structures in a huge conformational space in reasonable time. We show that many of these global minimum structures are of good quality compared to the native structure. Our branch and bound algorithm...

  16. Time-Predictable Virtual Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puffitsch, Wolfgang; Schoeberl, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Virtual memory is an important feature of modern computer architectures. For hard real-time systems, memory protection is a particularly interesting feature of virtual memory. However, current memory management units are not designed for time-predictability and therefore cannot be used...... in such systems. This paper investigates the requirements on virtual memory from the perspective of hard real-time systems and presents the design of a time-predictable memory management unit. Our evaluation shows that the proposed design can be implemented efficiently. The design allows address translation...... and address range checking in constant time of two clock cycles on a cache miss. This constant time is in strong contrast to the possible cost of a miss in a translation look-aside buffer in traditional virtual memory organizations. Compared to a platform without a memory management unit, these two additional...

  17. Predicting Failures in Power Grids

    CERN Document Server

    Chertkov, Michael; Stepanov, Mikhail G

    2010-01-01

    Here we develop an approach to predict power grid weak points, and specifically to efficiently identify the most probable failure modes in load distribution for a given power network. This approach is applied to two examples: Guam's power system and also the IEEE RTS-96 system, both modeled within the static Direct Current power flow model. Our algorithm is a power network adaption of the worst configuration heuristics, originally developed to study low probability events in physics and failures in error-correction. One finding is that, if the normal operational mode of the grid is sufficiently healthy, the failure modes, also called instantons, are sufficiently sparse, i.e. the failures are caused by load fluctuations at only a few buses. The technique is useful for discovering weak links which are saturated at the instantons. It can also identify overutilized and underutilized generators, thus providing predictive capability for improving the reliability of any power network.

  18. Time-Predictable Computer Architecture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schoeberl Martin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Today's general-purpose processors are optimized for maximum throughput. Real-time systems need a processor with both a reasonable and a known worst-case execution time (WCET. Features such as pipelines with instruction dependencies, caches, branch prediction, and out-of-order execution complicate WCET analysis and lead to very conservative estimates. In this paper, we evaluate the issues of current architectures with respect to WCET analysis. Then, we propose solutions for a time-predictable computer architecture. The proposed architecture is evaluated with implementation of some features in a Java processor. The resulting processor is a good target for WCET analysis and still performs well in the average case.

  19. Confidence Estimation in Structured Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Mejer, Avihai

    2011-01-01

    Structured classification tasks such as sequence labeling and dependency parsing have seen much interest by the Natural Language Processing and the machine learning communities. Several online learning algorithms were adapted for structured tasks such as Perceptron, Passive- Aggressive and the recently introduced Confidence-Weighted learning . These online algorithms are easy to implement, fast to train and yield state-of-the-art performance. However, unlike probabilistic models like Hidden Markov Model and Conditional random fields, these methods generate models that output merely a prediction with no additional information regarding confidence in the correctness of the output. In this work we fill the gap proposing few alternatives to compute the confidence in the output of non-probabilistic algorithms.We show how to compute confidence estimates in the prediction such that the confidence reflects the probability that the word is labeled correctly. We then show how to use our methods to detect mislabeled wor...

  20. WAVE ASSIMILATION AND NUMERICAL PREDICTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    An adjoint variational method for wave data assimilation in the LAGFD-WAM wave model is proposed. The adjoint equation of the wavenumber energy spectrum balance equation is derived. And fortunately, its characteristic equations are the same as those in the LAGFD-WAM wave model. Simple experiments on the functional optimization and assimilation effectiveness during the prediction period indicated that the adjoint variational method is effective for wave assimilation and that the initial optimization of the wave model is important for the short-range wave prediction. All of this is under the assumption that the wind field is accurate, the method is the important first step for combined wind and wave data assimilation systems.

  1. Simulation, situated conceptualization, and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsalou, Lawrence W

    2009-05-12

    Based on accumulating evidence, simulation appears to be a basic computational mechanism in the brain that supports a broad spectrum of processes from perception to social cognition. Further evidence suggests that simulation is typically situated, with the situated character of experience in the environment being reflected in the situated character of the representations that underlie simulation. A basic architecture is sketched of how the brain implements situated simulation. Within this framework, simulators implement the concepts that underlie knowledge, and situated conceptualizations capture patterns of multi-modal simulation associated with frequently experienced situations. A pattern completion inference mechanism uses current perception to activate situated conceptualizations that produce predictions via simulations on relevant modalities. Empirical findings from perception, action, working memory, conceptual processing, language and social cognition illustrate how this framework produces the extensive prediction that characterizes natural intelligence.

  2. Predicting responses from Rasch measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linacre, John M

    2010-01-01

    There is a growing family of Rasch models for polytomous observations. Selecting a suitable model for an existing dataset, estimating its parameters and evaluating its fit is now routine. Problems arise when the model parameters are to be estimated from the current data, but used to predict future data. In particular, ambiguities in the nature of the current data, or overfit of the model to the current dataset, may mean that better fit to the current data may lead to worse fit to future data. The predictive power of several Rasch and Rasch-related models are discussed in the context of the Netflix Prize. Rasch-related models are proposed based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Boltzmann Machines.

  3. The ethics of earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sol, Ayhan; Turan, Halil

    2004-10-01

    Scientists' responsibility to inform the public about their results may conflict with their responsibility not to cause social disturbance by the communication of these results. A study of the well-known Brady-Spence and Iben Browning earthquake predictions illustrates this conflict in the publication of scientifically unwarranted predictions. Furthermore, a public policy that considers public sensitivity caused by such publications as an opportunity to promote public awareness is ethically problematic from (i) a refined consequentialist point of view that any means cannot be justified by any ends, and (ii) a rights view according to which individuals should never be treated as a mere means to ends. The Parkfield experiment, the so-called paradigm case of cooperation between natural and social scientists and the political authorities in hazard management and risk communication, is also open to similar ethical criticism. For the people in the Parkfield area were not informed that the whole experiment was based on a contested seismological paradigm.

  4. Action semantics modulate action prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Anne; Prinz, Wolfgang

    2010-11-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that action prediction involves an internal action simulation that runs time-locked to the real action. The present study replicates and extends these findings by indicating a real-time simulation process (Graf et al., 2007), which can be differentiated from a similarity-based evaluation of internal action representations. Moreover, results showed that action semantics modulate action prediction accuracy. The semantic effect was specified by the processing of action verbs and concrete nouns (Experiment 1) and, more specifically, by the dynamics described by action verbs (Experiment 2) and the speed described by the verbs (e.g., "to catch" vs. "to grasp" vs. "to stretch"; Experiment 3). These results propose a linkage between action simulation and action semantics as two yet unrelated domains, a view that coincides with a recent notion of a close link between motor processes and the understanding of action language.

  5. On long term climate prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thatcher, M.

    1990-08-01

    On the occasion of the opening of The Hadley Centre in Bracknell, Berkshire on May 25, 1990, Britain's Prime Minister, the Rt. Hon. Margaret Thatcher, FRS, related the significance of the Centre to the Scientific Assessment Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change which was published on the same day. The Report confirms that greenhouse gases are increasing substantially as a result of man's activites; that this will warm the Earth's surface, with serious consequences for us all, and that these consequences are capable of prediction. We want to predict them more accurately. Calling the Report an authoritative early warning system which could be ignored only at great risk to future generations, Mrs. Margaret Thatcher described the role of the Centre in enabling the establishment of a realistic international program and timetable for action.

  6. Predictive State Temporal Difference Learning

    CERN Document Server

    Boots, Byron

    2010-01-01

    We propose a new approach to value function approximation which combines linear temporal difference reinforcement learning with subspace identification. In practical applications, reinforcement learning (RL) is complicated by the fact that state is either high-dimensional or partially observable. Therefore, RL methods are designed to work with features of state rather than state itself, and the success or failure of learning is often determined by the suitability of the selected features. By comparison, subspace identification (SSID) methods are designed to select a feature set which preserves as much information as possible about state. In this paper we connect the two approaches, looking at the problem of reinforcement learning with a large set of features, each of which may only be marginally useful for value function approximation. We introduce a new algorithm for this situation, called Predictive State Temporal Difference (PSTD) learning. As in SSID for predictive state representations, PSTD finds a line...

  7. Shoulder dystocia: prediction and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Meghan G; Cohen, Wayne R

    2016-01-01

    Shoulder dystocia is a complication of vaginal delivery and the primary factor associated with brachial plexus injury. In this review, we discuss the risk factors for shoulder dystocia and propose a framework for the prediction and prevention of the complication. A recommended approach to management when shoulder dystocia occurs is outlined, with review of the maneuvers used to relieve the obstruction with minimal risk of fetal and maternal injury.

  8. Predicted halflives for cluster radioactivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poenaru, D. N.; Greiner, W.; Ivascu, M.

    1989-10-01

    The main results of the analytical superasymmetric fission model, describing in a unified manner cluster radioactivities, alpha-decay and cold fission processes, are briefly reviewed. Predicted halflives for 14C, 24, 25, 26Ne, 28, 30Mg and 32Si radioactivities in the range 10 11-10 26 s and the corresponding branching ratios relative to α-decay 10 -16 - 10 -9 have been experimentally confirmed within 1.5 orders of magnitude.

  9. Are Some Semantic Changes Predictable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schousboe, Steen

    2010-01-01

      Historical linguistics is traditionally concerned with phonology and syntax. With the exception of grammaticalization - the development of auxiliary verbs, the syntactic rather than localistic use of prepositions, etc. - semantic change has usually not been described as a result of regular deve...... developments, but only as specific meaning changes in individual words. This paper will suggest some regularities in semantic change, regularities which, like sound laws, have predictive power and can be tested against recorded languages....

  10. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  11. ESPC Regional Arctic Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    the Navy the capability to conduct short-term (1 week) to extended (2 weeks) coupled weather forecasts for the Arctic region. APPROACH To...sensitivity of the Arctic weather forecast to key numerical parameters; and 5) conduct extensive validation and verification of the coupled system and...SEP 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ESPC Regional Arctic Prediction System 5a. CONTRACT

  12. Structure Prediction of Membrane Proteins

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chunlong Zhou; Yao Zheng; Yan Zhou

    2004-01-01

    There is a large gap between the number of membrane protein (MP) sequences and that of their decoded 3D structures, especially high-resolution structures, due to difficulties in crystal preparation of MPs. However, detailed knowledge of the 3D structure is required for the fundamental understanding of the function of an MP and the interactions between the protein and its inhibitors or activators. In this paper, some computational approaches that have been used to predict MP structures are discussed and compared.

  13. Prediction for RNA planar pseudoknots

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Hengwu; Zhu Daming; Liu Zhendong; Li Hong

    2007-01-01

    Based on m-stems and semi-extensible structure, a model is presented to represent RNA planar pseudoknots, and corresponding dynamic programming algorithm is designed and implemented to predict arbitrary planar pseudoknots and simple non-planar pseudoknots with O(n4) time and O(n3) space. The algorithm folds total 245 sequences in the Pseudobase database, and the test results indicate that the algorithm has good accuracy, sensitivity and specificity.

  14. The Clinical Prediction of Dangerousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-05-01

    executive potential, psychopathy , suicidality and so forth. Unfor- tunately, this is not the case. There tend to be substantial dif- ferences among...Prediction from case material to personality data. New York Archives of Psychology, 29 (No. 207). Hare, R. D. (1970). Psychopathy : Theory and research. New...1967). Psychopathy , mental deficiency, aggressiveness, and the XYY syndrome. Nature, 214, (5087), 500-501. Wexler, D. (1979). Patients, therapists

  15. Prediction During Natural Language Comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Roel M; Frank, Stefan L; Nijhof, Annabel D; Hagoort, Peter; van den Bosch, Antal

    2016-06-01

    The notion of prediction is studied in cognitive neuroscience with increasing intensity. We investigated the neural basis of 2 distinct aspects of word prediction, derived from information theory, during story comprehension. We assessed the effect of entropy of next-word probability distributions as well as surprisal A computational model determined entropy and surprisal for each word in 3 literary stories. Twenty-four healthy participants listened to the same 3 stories while their brain activation was measured using fMRI. Reversed speech fragments were presented as a control condition. Brain areas sensitive to entropy were left ventral premotor cortex, left middle frontal gyrus, right inferior frontal gyrus, left inferior parietal lobule, and left supplementary motor area. Areas sensitive to surprisal were left inferior temporal sulcus ("visual word form area"), bilateral superior temporal gyrus, right amygdala, bilateral anterior temporal poles, and right inferior frontal sulcus. We conclude that prediction during language comprehension can occur at several levels of processing, including at the level of word form. Our study exemplifies the power of combining computational linguistics with cognitive neuroscience, and additionally underlines the feasibility of studying continuous spoken language materials with fMRI.

  16. Finite Unification: Theory and Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sven Heinemeyer

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available All-loop Finite Unified Theories (FUTs are very interesting N=1 supersymmetric Grand Unified Theories (GUTs which not only realise an old field theoretic dream but also have a remarkable predictive power due to the required reduction of couplings. The reduction of the dimensionless couplings in N=1 GUTs is achieved by searching for renormalization group invariant (RGI relations among them holding beyond the unification scale. Finiteness results from the fact that there exist RGI relations among dimensionless couplings that guarantee the vanishing of all beta-functions in certain N=1 GUTs even to all orders. Furthermore developments in the soft supersymmetry breaking sector of N=1 GUTs and FUTs lead to exact RGI relations, i.e. reduction of couplings, in this dimensionful sector of the theory too. Based on the above theoretical framework phenomenologically consistent FUTS have been constructed. Here we present FUT models based on the SU(5 and SU(3^3 gauge groups and their predictions. Of particular interest is the Higgs mass prediction of one of the models which is expected to be tested at the LHC.

  17. Using Predictive Analytics to Predict Power Outages from Severe Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanik, D. W.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Frediani, M. E.; Astitha, M.

    2015-12-01

    The distribution of reliable power is essential to businesses, public services, and our daily lives. With the growing abundance of data being collected and created by industry (i.e. outage data), government agencies (i.e. land cover), and academia (i.e. weather forecasts), we can begin to tackle problems that previously seemed too complex to solve. In this session, we will present newly developed tools to aid decision-support challenges at electric distribution utilities that must mitigate, prepare for, respond to and recover from severe weather. We will show a performance evaluation of outage predictive models built for Eversource Energy (formerly Connecticut Light & Power) for storms of all types (i.e. blizzards, thunderstorms and hurricanes) and magnitudes (from 20 to >15,000 outages). High resolution weather simulations (simulated with the Weather and Research Forecast Model) were joined with utility outage data to calibrate four types of models: a decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), boosted gradient tree (BT) and an ensemble (ENS) decision tree regression that combined predictions from DT, RF and BT. The study shows that the ENS model forced with weather, infrastructure and land cover data was superior to the other models we evaluated, especially in terms of predicting the spatial distribution of outages. This research has the potential to be used for other critical infrastructure systems (such as telecommunications, drinking water and gas distribution networks), and can be readily expanded to the entire New England region to facilitate better planning and coordination among decision-makers when severe weather strikes.

  18. Predictive and Neural Predictive Control of Uncertain Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelkar, Atul G.

    2000-01-01

    Accomplishments and future work are:(1) Stability analysis: the work completed includes characterization of stability of receding horizon-based MPC in the setting of LQ paradigm. The current work-in-progress includes analyzing local as well as global stability of the closed-loop system under various nonlinearities; for example, actuator nonlinearities; sensor nonlinearities, and other plant nonlinearities. Actuator nonlinearities include three major types of nonlineaxities: saturation, dead-zone, and (0, 00) sector. (2) Robustness analysis: It is shown that receding horizon parameters such as input and output horizon lengths have direct effect on the robustness of the system. (3) Code development: A matlab code has been developed which can simulate various MPC formulations. The current effort is to generalize the code to include ability to handle all plant types and all MPC types. (4) Improved predictor: It is shown that MPC design using better predictors that can minimize prediction errors. It is shown analytically and numerically that Smith predictor can provide closed-loop stability under GPC operation for plants with dead times where standard optimal predictor fails. (5) Neural network predictors: When neural network is used as predictor it can be shown that neural network predicts the plant output within some finite error bound under certain conditions. Our preliminary study shows that with proper choice of update laws and network architectures such bound can be obtained. However, much work needs to be done to obtain a similar result in general case.

  19. Wine Expertise Predicts Taste Phenotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, John E; Pickering, Gary J

    2012-03-01

    Taste phenotypes have long been studied in relation to alcohol intake, dependence, and family history, with contradictory findings. However, on balance - with appropriate caveats about populations tested, outcomes measured and psychophysical methods used - an association between variation in taste responsiveness and some alcohol behaviors is supported. Recent work suggests super-tasting (operationalized via propylthiouracil (PROP) bitterness) not only associates with heightened response but also with more acute discrimination between stimuli. Here, we explore relationships between food and beverage adventurousness and taste phenotype. A convenience sample of wine drinkers (n=330) were recruited in Ontario and phenotyped for PROP bitterness via filter paper disk. They also filled out a short questionnaire regarding willingness to try new foods, alcoholic beverages and wines as well as level of wine involvement, which was used to classify them as a wine expert (n=110) or wine consumer (n=220). In univariate logisitic models, food adventurousness predicted trying new wines and beverages but not expertise. Likewise, wine expertise predicted willingness to try new wines and beverages but not foods. In separate multivariate logistic models, willingness to try new wines and beverages was predicted by expertise and food adventurousness but not PROP. However, mean PROP bitterness was higher among wine experts than wine consumers, and the conditional distribution functions differed between experts and consumers. In contrast, PROP means and distributions did not differ with food adventurousness. These data suggest individuals may self-select for specific professions based on sensory ability (i.e., an active gene-environment correlation) but phenotype does not explain willingness to try new stimuli.

  20. Learning to predict chemical reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayala, Matthew A; Azencott, Chloé-Agathe; Chen, Jonathan H; Baldi, Pierre

    2011-09-26

    Being able to predict the course of arbitrary chemical reactions is essential to the theory and applications of organic chemistry. Approaches to the reaction prediction problems can be organized around three poles corresponding to: (1) physical laws; (2) rule-based expert systems; and (3) inductive machine learning. Previous approaches at these poles, respectively, are not high throughput, are not generalizable or scalable, and lack sufficient data and structure to be implemented. We propose a new approach to reaction prediction utilizing elements from each pole. Using a physically inspired conceptualization, we describe single mechanistic reactions as interactions between coarse approximations of molecular orbitals (MOs) and use topological and physicochemical attributes as descriptors. Using an existing rule-based system (Reaction Explorer), we derive a restricted chemistry data set consisting of 1630 full multistep reactions with 2358 distinct starting materials and intermediates, associated with 2989 productive mechanistic steps and 6.14 million unproductive mechanistic steps. And from machine learning, we pose identifying productive mechanistic steps as a statistical ranking, information retrieval problem: given a set of reactants and a description of conditions, learn a ranking model over potential filled-to-unfilled MO interactions such that the top-ranked mechanistic steps yield the major products. The machine learning implementation follows a two-stage approach, in which we first train atom level reactivity filters to prune 94.00% of nonproductive reactions with a 0.01% error rate. Then, we train an ensemble of ranking models on pairs of interacting MOs to learn a relative productivity function over mechanistic steps in a given system. Without the use of explicit transformation patterns, the ensemble perfectly ranks the productive mechanism at the top 89.05% of the time, rising to 99.86% of the time when the top four are considered. Furthermore, the system

  1. Predicting Ship Fuel Consumption: Update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-07-01

    ship propulsion fuel consumption as a function of ship speed for U.S. Navy combatant and auxiliary ships. Prediction is based on fitting an analytic function to published ship class speed-fuel use data using nonlinear regression. The form of the analytic function fitted is motivated by the literature on ship powering and resistance. The report discusses data sources and data issues, and the impact of ship propulsion plant configuration on fuel use. The regression coefficients of the exponential function fitted, tabular numerical comparison of

  2. Prenatal prediction of pulmonary hypoplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triebwasser, Jourdan E; Treadwell, Marjorie C

    2017-03-15

    Pulmonary hypoplasia, although rare, is associated with significant neonatal morbidity and mortality. Conditions associated with pulmonary hypoplasia include those which limit normal thoracic capacity or movement, including skeletal dysplasias and abdominal wall defects; those with mass effect, including congenital diaphragmatic hernia and pleural effusions; and those with decreased amniotic fluid, including preterm, premature rupture of membranes, and genitourinary anomalies. The ability to predict severe pulmonary hypoplasia prenatally aids in family counseling, as well as obstetric and neonatal management. The objective of this review is to outline the imaging techniques that are widely used prenatally to assess pulmonary hypoplasia and to discuss the limitations of these methods.

  3. Predicted halflives for cluster radioactivities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poenaru, D.N. (Institutul Central de Fizica, Bucharest (Romania); Frankfurt Univ. (Germany, F.R.). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik); Greiner, W. (Frankfurt Univ. (Germany, F.R.). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik); Ivascu, M. (Institutul Central de Fizica, Bucharest (Romania))

    1989-10-09

    The main results of the analytical superasymmetric fission model, describing in a unified manner cluster radioactivities, alpha-decay and cold fission processes, are briefly reviewed. Predicted halflives for {sup 14}C, {sup 24,25,26}Ne, {sup 28,30}Mg and {sup 32}Si radioactivities in the range 10{sup 11}-10{sup 26} s and the corresponding branching ratios relative to {alpha}-decay 10{sup -16}-10{sup -9} have been experimentally confirmed within 1.5 orders of magnitude. (orig.).

  4. Climate Prediction through Statistical Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Akgun, Bora; Tuter, Levent; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating the statistical connection between the climate types of the present and these local temperatures. We are relating this issue to some well-known historic climate shifts. Our main result is that the temperature fluctuations with or without a temperature scale attached to them, can be used to classify climates in the absence of other indicators such as pan evaporation and precipitation.

  5. Aviation turbulence processes, detection, prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Lane, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Anyone who has experienced turbulence in flight knows that it is usually not pleasant, and may wonder why this is so difficult to avoid. The book includes papers by various aviation turbulence researchers and provides background into the nature and causes of atmospheric turbulence that affect aircraft motion, and contains surveys of the latest techniques for remote and in situ sensing and forecasting of the turbulence phenomenon. It provides updates on the state-of-the-art research since earlier studies in the 1960s on clear-air turbulence, explains recent new understanding into turbulence generation by thunderstorms, and summarizes future challenges in turbulence prediction and avoidance.

  6. Making predictions in the multiverse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freivogel, Ben, E-mail: benfreivogel@gmail.com [Center for Theoretical Physics and Laboratory for Nuclear Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2011-10-21

    I describe reasons to think we are living in an eternally inflating multiverse where the observable 'constants' of nature vary from place to place. The major obstacle to making predictions in this context is that we must regulate the infinities of eternal inflation. I review a number of proposed regulators, or measures. Recent work has ruled out a number of measures by showing that they conflict with observation, and focused attention on a few proposals. Further, several different measures have been shown to be equivalent. I describe some of the many nontrivial tests these measures will face as we learn more from theory, experiment and observation.

  7. Radio Channel State Prediction by Kalman Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Ziacik

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article there is the description Kalman filter using as a radio channel state predictor. Simulator of prediction has been created in MATLAB environment and it is capable to simulate the prediction of radio signal envelope by Clark’s model of radio channel, which is implemented to the simulator. Simulations were realized for prediction range 0.41 ms and 6.24 ms and as comparing criterion we used the prediction error. It is clear from simulations, that with the duration of prediction the prediction error is enlarging, which may cause the erroneous decision of adaptation algorithms.

  8. MPC-Relevant Prediction-Error Identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model......A prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...

  9. The limits to stock return predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Robertson, D.; Wright, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    We examine predictive return regressions from a new angle. We ask what observable\\ud univariate properties of returns tell us about the “predictive space” that defines the true\\ud predictive model: the triplet ¡\\ud λ, R2\\ud x, ρ¢\\ud , where λ is the predictor’s persistence, R2\\ud x is the\\ud predictive R-squared, and ρ is the "Stambaugh Correlation" (between innovations in the\\ud predictive system). When returns are nearly white noise, and the variance ratio slopes\\ud downwards, the predictive...

  10. Improving the prediction of chaotic time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李克平; 高自友; 陈天仑

    2003-01-01

    One of the features of deterministic chaos is sensitive to initial conditions. This feature limits the prediction horizons of many chaotic systems. In this paper, we propose a new prediction technique for chaotic time series. In our method, some neighbouring points of the predicted point, for which the corresponding local Lyapunov exponent is particularly large, would be discarded during estimating the local dynamics, and thus the error accumulated by the prediction algorithm is reduced. The model is tested for the convection amplitude of Lorenz systems. The simulation results indicate that the prediction technique can improve the prediction of chaotic time series.

  11. Predictive implications of Gompertz's law

    CERN Document Server

    Richmond, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Gompertz's law tells us that for humans above the age of 35 the death rate increases exponentially with a doubling time of about 10 years. Here, we show that the same law continues to hold even for ages over 100. Beyond 106 there is so far no statistical evidence available because the number of survivors is too small even in the largest nations. However assuming that Gompertz's law continues to hold beyond 106, we conclude that the mortality rate becomes equal to 1 at age 120 (meaning that there are 1,000 deaths in a population of one thousand). In other words, the upper bound of human life is near 120. The existence of this fixed-point has interesting implications. It allows us to predict the form of the relationship between death rates at age 35 and the doubling time of Gompertz's law. In order to test this prediction, we first carry out a transversal analysis for a sample of countries comprising both industrialized and developing nations. As further confirmation, we also develop a longitudinal analysis usi...

  12. Emotional arousal predicts intertemporal choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Karolina M; Johnson, Eli; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2016-08-01

    People generally prefer immediate rewards to rewards received after a delay, often even when the delayed reward is larger. This phenomenon is known as temporal discounting. It has been suggested that preferences for immediate rewards may be due to their being more concrete than delayed rewards. This concreteness may evoke an enhanced emotional response. Indeed, manipulating the representation of a future reward to make it more concrete has been shown to heighten the reward's subjective emotional intensity, making people more likely to choose it. Here the authors use an objective measure of arousal-pupil dilation-to investigate if emotional arousal mediates the influence of delayed reward concreteness on choice. They recorded pupil dilation responses while participants made choices between immediate and delayed rewards. They manipulated concreteness through time interval framing: delayed rewards were presented either with the date on which they would be received (e.g., "$30, May 3"; DATE condition, more concrete) or in terms of delay to receipt (e.g., "$30, 7 days; DAYS condition, less concrete). Contrary to prior work, participants were not overall more patient in the DATE condition. However, there was individual variability in response to time framing, and this variability was predicted by differences in pupil dilation between conditions. Emotional arousal increased as the subjective value of delayed rewards increased, and predicted choice of the delayed reward on each trial. This study advances our understanding of the role of emotion in temporal discounting. (PsycINFO Database Record

  13. Menopause prediction and potential implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daan, Nadine M P; Fauser, Bart C J M

    2015-11-01

    Reproductive ageing in women is characterized by a decline in both the quantity and quality of oocytes. Menopause is reached upon exhaustion of the resting primordial follicle pool, occurring on average at 51 years of age (range 40-60 years). The mean global age at natural menopause (ANM) appears robust, suggesting a distinct genetic control. Accordingly, a strong correlation in ANM is observed between mothers and daughters. Few specific genetic determinants of ANM have been identified. Substantial efforts have been made to predict ANM by using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels. AMH serum concentrations at reproductive age predict ANM, but precision is currently limited. Early ANM is associated with early preceding fertility loss, whereas late menopause is associated with reduced morbidity and mortality later in life. Menopause affects various women's health aspects, including bone density, breast, the cardiovascular system, mood/cognitive function and sexual well-being. If the current trend of increasing human life expectancy persists, women will soon spend half their life postmenopause. Unfortunately, increased longevity does not coincide with an equal increase in years spend in good health. Future research should focus on determinants of long term health effects of ANM, and efforts to improve women's postmenopausal health and quality of life.

  14. Predictive simulation of nonlinear ultrasonics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yanfeng; Giurgiutiu, Victor

    2012-04-01

    Most of the nonlinear ultrasonic studies to date have been experimental, but few theoretical predictive studies exist, especially for Lamb wave ultrasonic. Compared with nonlinear bulk waves and Rayleigh waves, nonlinear Lamb waves for structural health monitoring become more challenging due to their multi-mode dispersive features. In this paper, predictive study of nonlinear Lamb waves is done with finite element simulation. A pitch-catch method is used to interrogate a plate with a "breathing crack" which opens and closes under tension and compression. Piezoelectric wafer active sensors (PWAS) used as transmitter and receiver are modeled with coupled field elements. The "breathing crack" is simulated via "element birth and death" technique. The ultrasonic waves generated by the transmitter PWAS propagate into the structure, interact with the "breathing crack", acquire nonlinear features, and are picked up by the receiver PWAS. The features of the wave packets at the receiver PWAS are studied and discussed. The received signal is processed with Fast Fourier Transform to show the higher harmonics nonlinear characteristics. A baseline free damage index is introduced to assess the presence and the severity of the crack. The paper finishes with summary, conclusions, and suggestions for future work.

  15. Conditional replenishment using motion prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, D. N.; Jones, H. W., Jr.

    1979-01-01

    Conditional replenishment is an interframe video compression method that uses correlation in time to reduce video transmission rates. This method works by detecting and sending only the changing portions of the image and by having the receiver use the video data from the previous frame for the non-changing portion. The amount of compression that can be achieved through this technique depends to a large extent on the rate of change within the image, and can vary from 10 to 1 to less than 2 to 1. An additional 3 to 1 reduction in rate is obtained by the intraframe coding of data blocks using a 2-dimensional variable rate Hadamard transform coder. A further additional 2 to 1 rate reduction is achieved by using motion prediction. Motion prediction works by measuring the relative displacements of a subpicture from one frame to the next. The subpicture can then be transmitted by sending only the value of the 2-dimensional displacement. Computer simulations have demonstrated that data rates of 2 to 4 Mega-bits/second can be achieved while still retaining good fidelity in the image.

  16. Predicting educational achievement from DNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selzam, S; Krapohl, E; von Stumm, S; O'Reilly, P F; Rimfeld, K; Kovas, Y; Dale, P S; Lee, J J; Plomin, R

    2017-01-01

    A genome-wide polygenic score (GPS), derived from a 2013 genome-wide association study (N=127,000), explained 2% of the variance in total years of education (EduYears). In a follow-up study (N=329,000), a new EduYears GPS explains up to 4%. Here, we tested the association between this latest EduYears GPS and educational achievement scores at ages 7, 12 and 16 in an independent sample of 5825 UK individuals. We found that EduYears GPS explained greater amounts of variance in educational achievement over time, up to 9% at age 16, accounting for 15% of the heritable variance. This is the strongest GPS prediction to date for quantitative behavioral traits. Individuals in the highest and lowest GPS septiles differed by a whole school grade at age 16. Furthermore, EduYears GPS was associated with general cognitive ability (~3.5%) and family socioeconomic status (~7%). There was no evidence of an interaction between EduYears GPS and family socioeconomic status on educational achievement or on general cognitive ability. These results are a harbinger of future widespread use of GPS to predict genetic risk and resilience in the social and behavioral sciences. PMID:27431296

  17. Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ross, Suzi; Hansen, Niels Christian

    2016-01-01

    Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception The Journal of Neuroscience, 16 March 2016, 36(11): 3103-3105;......Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception The Journal of Neuroscience, 16 March 2016, 36(11): 3103-3105;...

  18. Prediction of Unsteady Transonic Aerodynamics Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — An accurate prediction of aero-elastic effects depends on an accurate prediction of the unsteady aerodynamic forces. Perhaps the most difficult speed regime is...

  19. Collective prediction based on community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yasong; Li, Taisong; Zhang, Yan; Yan, Yonghong

    2017-01-01

    Collective prediction algorithms have been used to improve performances when network structures are involved in prediction tasks. The training dataset of such tasks often contain information of content, links and labels, while the testing dataset have only content and link information. Conventional collective prediction algorithms conduct predictions based on the content of a node and the information of its direct neighbors with a base classifier. However, the information of some direct neighbor nodes may be not consistent with the target one. In addition, the information of indirect neighbors can be helpful when that of direct neighbors is scant. In this paper, instead of using information of direct neighbors, we propose to apply community structures in networks to prediction tasks. A community detection method is aggregated into the collective prediction process to improve prediction performance. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms a number of standard prediction algorithms specially under conditions that labeled training dataset are limited.

  20. Protein Residue Contacts and Prediction Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Badri

    2016-01-01

    In the field of computational structural proteomics, contact predictions have shown new prospects of solving the longstanding problem of ab initio protein structure prediction. In the last few years, application of deep learning algorithms and availability of large protein sequence databases, combined with improvement in methods that derive contacts from multiple sequence alignments, have shown a huge increase in the precision of contact prediction. In addition, these predicted contacts have also been used to build three-dimensional models from scratch. In this chapter, we briefly discuss many elements of protein residue–residue contacts and the methods available for prediction, focusing on a state-of-the-art contact prediction tool, DNcon. Illustrating with a case study, we describe how DNcon can be used to make ab initio contact predictions for a given protein sequence and discuss how the predicted contacts may be analyzed and evaluated. PMID:27115648

  1. Prediction of Recovery from Coma After CPR

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... PATIENTS AND THEIR FAMILIES PREDICTION OF RECOVERY FROM COMA AFTER CPR This summary will provide you with ... tests that help doctors predict poor recovery from coma after CPR. In this case, poor recovery means ...

  2. Use of Feedback in Clinical Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Harold E.

    1972-01-01

    Results indicated that predictive accuracy is greater when feedback is applied to the basis for the prediction than when applied to gut" impressions. Judges forming hypotheses were also able to learn from experience. (Author)

  3. The Use of Linear Programming for Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnittjer, Carl J.

    The purpose of the study was to develop a linear programming model to be used for prediction, test the accuracy of the predictions, and compare the accuracy with that produced by curvilinear multiple regression analysis. (Author)

  4. Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric

    2006-01-01

    While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient conditions under which prediction markets prices correspond with mean beliefs. Beyond these specific sufficient conditions, we show that for a broad class of models prediction market prices are usuall...

  5. ADAPTIVE GENERALIZED PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF SWITCHED SYSTEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yi-jing; WANG Long

    2005-01-01

    The problem of adaptive generalized predictive control which consists of output prediction errors for a class of switched systems is studied. The switching law is determined by the output predictive errors of a finite number of subsystems. For the single subsystem and multiple subsystems cases, it is proved that the given direct algorithm of generalized predictive control guarantees the global convergence of the system. This algorithm overcomes the inherent drawbacks of the slow convergence and large transient errors for the conventional adaptive control.

  6. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System (HEPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thielen-Del Pozo, J.; Schaake, J.; Martin, E.; Pailleux, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2010-09-01

    Flood forecasting systems form a key part of ‘preparedness' strategies for disastrous floods and provide hydrological services, civil protection authorities and the public with information of upcoming events. Provided the warning leadtime is sufficiently long, adequate preparatory actions can be taken to efficiently reduce the impacts of the flooding. Following on the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting, the hydrological community now moves increasingly towards Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) for improved flood forecasting using operationally available NWP products as inputs. However, these products are often generated on relatively coarse scales compared to hydrologically relevant basin units and suffer systematic biases that may have considerable impact when passed through the non-linear hydrological filters. Therefore, a better understanding on how best to produce, communicate and use hydrologic ensemble forecasts in hydrological short-, medium- und long term prediction of hydrological processes is necessary. The "Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment" (HEPEX), is an international initiative consisting of hydrologists, meteorologist and end-users to advance probabilistic hydrologic forecast techniques for flood, drought and water management applications. Different aspects of the hydrological ensemble processor are being addressed including • Production of useful meteorological products relevant for hydrological applications, ranging from nowcasting products to seasonal forecasts. The importance of hindcasts that are consistent with the operational weather forecasts will be discussed to support bias correction and downscaling, statistically meaningful verification of HEPS, and the development and testing of operating rules; • Need for downscaling and post-processing of weather ensembles to reduce bias before entering hydrological applications; • Hydrological model and parameter uncertainty and how to correct and

  7. Differential expression of galectin-1 and its interactions with cells and laminins in the intervertebral disc.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Liufang; So, Stephen; Lim, Shaun W; Richardson, William J; Fitch, Robert D; Setton, Lori A; Chen, Jun

    2012-12-01

    Galectin-1 (Gal-1), an endogenous β-galactoside-binding protein, binds to laminins, which are highly expressed in the nucleus pulposus (NP) of the intervertebral disc (IVD). The objective of this study is to evaluate the expression of Gal-1 protein in IVD tissues during aging and the effect of Gal-1 on IVD cell adhesion to laminins. Tissues from rat, porcine, and human (scoliosis or disc degeneration) IVDs were used to evaluate Gal-1 expression via immunostaining, RT-PCR, and Western blot analysis. Attachment of isolated IVD cells (porcine and human) on select laminin isoforms (LM-111 and LM-511) was compared with/without pre-incubation with exogenous Gal-1. A biotinylated Gal-1(B-Gal-1) was used to evaluate for binding to IVD cells and to select for IVD cells by magnetic activated cell sorting (MACS). NP cells expressed high levels of Gal-1 protein as compared to anulus fibrosus (AF) cells in immature tissues, while exogenous Gal-1 increased both NP and AF cell attachment to laminins and exhibited a similar binding to both cell types in vitro. With aging, Gal-1 levels in NP tissue appeared to decrease. In addition, incubation with B-Gal-1 was able to promote the retention of more than 50% of IVD cells via MACS. Our results provide new findings for the presence and functional role of Gal-1 within IVDs. Similar staining patterns for Gal-1 and LM-511 in IVD tissue suggest that Gal-1 may serve as an adhesion molecule to interact with both cells and laminins. This MACS protocol may be useful for selecting pure IVD cells from mixed cells of pathological tissue.

  8. The relationship between disc degeneration and flexibility of the lumbar spine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanaka, Nobuhiro; Fujimoto, Yoshinori; Ochi, Mitsuo [Hiroshima Univ. (Japan). Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences; An, H.S.; Lim, T.H.; Fujiwara, Atsushi [Rush-Presbyterian-St. Luke' s Medical Center, Chicago, IL (United States)

    2003-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between grade of degeneration of intervertebral discs and 3-dimensional biomechanical characteristics of the motion segment under multidirectional loading conditions. The material used in this study consisted of 114 lumbar motion segments from T12-L1 to L5-S1 retrieved from 47 fresh cadaver spines (average age at death, 68 years; range, 39 to 87 years). The severity of degeneration (grades I to V according to Thomson's system) was determined by examining magnetic resonance (MR) images and cryomicrotome sections. Pure unconstrained moments with dead weights were applied to the motion segments in 6 load steps. The directions of loading included flexion, extension, right and left axial rotation, and right and left lateral bending. Segments from the upper lumbar levels (T12-L1 to L3-4) tended to have greater rotational movement in flexion, extension, and axial rotation with disc degeneration up to grade IV, but the motion decreased when the disc degeneration reached grade V. In the lower lumbar spine, motion in axial rotation and lateral bending at L4-5 and L5-S1 was increased in grade III. These results suggest that kinematic properties of the lumbar spine are related to disc degeneration. Disc degeneration, particularly in grades III and IV, in which radial tears of the anulus fibrosus are found, was generally associated with greater motion. Disc space collapse and osteophyte formation, as found in grade V, resulted in stabilization of the motion segments. (author)

  9. Quantitative T2 magnetic resonance imaging compared to morphological grading of the early cervical intervertebral disc degeneration: an evaluation approach in asymptomatic young adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Chen

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of quantitative T2 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI for quantifying early cervical intervertebral disc (IVD degeneration in asymptomatic young adults by correlating the T2 value with Pfirrmann grade, sex, and anatomic level. METHODS: Seventy asymptomatic young subjects (34 men and 36 women; mean age, 22.80±2.11 yr; range, 18-25 years underwent 3.0-T MRI to obtain morphological data (one T1-fast spin echo (FSE and three-plane T2-FSE, used to assign a Pfirrmann grade (I-V and for T2 mapping (multi-echo spin echo. T2 values in the nucleus pulposus (NP, n = 350 and anulus fibrosus (AF, n = 700 were obtained. Differences in T2 values between sexes and anatomic level were evaluated, and linear correlation analysis of T2 values versus degenerative grade was conducted. FINDINGS: Cervical IVDs of healthy young adults were commonly determined to be at Pfirrmann grades I and II. T2 values of NPs were significantly higher than those of AF at all anatomic levels (P0.05. T2 values decreased linearly with degenerative grade. Linear correlation analysis revealed a strong negative association between the Pfirrmann grade and the T2 values of the NP (P = 0.000 but not the T2 values of the AF (P = 0.854. However, non-degenerated discs (Pfirrmann grades I and II showed a wide range of T2 relaxation time. T2 values according to disc degeneration level classification were as follows: grade I (>62.03 ms, grade II (54.60-62.03 ms, grade III (<54.60 ms. CONCLUSIONS: T2 quantitation provides a more sensitive and robust approach for detecting and characterizing the early stage of cervical IVD degeneration and to create a reliable quantitative in healthy young adults.

  10. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...

  11. Using "Prediction" to Promote Mathematical Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ok-Kyeong; Kasmer, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    This article introduces prediction as a useful tool to promote mathematical reasoning. First, the article addresses prediction expectations in state standards and gives examples. It also provides a classroom example and activities to illustrate what prediction can look like and how it can serve as a building block for the development of students'…

  12. BDDCS Class Prediction for New Molecular Entities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broccatelli, Fabio; Cruciani, Gabriele; Benet, Leslie Z.;

    2012-01-01

    descriptors calculated or derived from the VolSurf+ software. For each molecule, a probability of BDDCS class membership was given, based on predicted EoM, FDA solubility (FDAS) and their confidence scores. The accuracy in predicting FDAS was 78% in training and 77% in validation, while for EoM prediction...

  13. Prediction of twin-arginine signal peptides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jannick Dyrløv; Nielsen, Henrik; Widdick, D.;

    2005-01-01

    peptides and 84% of the annotated cleavage sites of these Tat signal peptides were correctly predicted. This method generates far less false positive predictions on various datasets than using simple pattern matching. Moreover, on the same datasets TatP generates less false positive predictions than...

  14. Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Shmueli (Galit); O.R. Koppius (Otto)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as wel

  15. NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Balicki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

  16. Nutritional prediction of pressure ulcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breslow, R A; Bergstrom, N

    1994-11-01

    This article focuses on nutritional risk factors that predict the development of pressure ulcers in hospital and nursing home patients. Cross-sectional studies associate inadequate energy and protein intake; underweight; low triceps skinfold measurement; and low serum albumin, low serum cholesterol, and low hemoglobin levels with pressure ulcers. Prospective studies identify inadequate energy and protein intake, a poor score on the Braden scale (a risk assessment instrument that includes a nutrition component), and possibly low serum albumin level as risk factors for developing a pressure ulcer. Nutritionists should provide a high-energy, high-protein diet for patients at risk of development of pressure ulcers to improve their dietary intake and nutritional status.

  17. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  18. Prospects for Predicting Cycle 24

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Arnab Rai Choudhuri

    2008-03-01

    Although we have reliable data of solar polar fields only from the mid-1970s, it seems that the polar field at a minimum is well correlated with the next cycle, but the strength of the cycle is not correlated with the polar field produced at its end. We explain this by suggesting that the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal field generation from tilted active regions involves randomness, whereas the other aspects of the dynamo process are more ordered. To model actual cycles, we have to ‘correct’ our theoretical dynamo model by ‘feeding’ information about the polar field at the minima. Following this process, we find that our model fits the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21–23 reasonably well and predicts that cycle 24 will be the weakest in a century.

  19. Methods of rock burst prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Genkin, V.A.; Minin, Yu.Ya.; Morozov, G.D.; Proskuryakov, V.M.; Cmirnov, V.A.

    1979-07-01

    Some methods of predicting rock bursts in underground coal and iron ore mines are evaluated: using BP-18 indenters and the MGD indenter with automatic recording; seismic method consisting in measuring the speed of shock waves travelling through various layers (apparatus SB-20 is designed for use in coal mines); electrometric method (measuring resistance between two electrodes when electric currents flow through coal and rocks). The design of the AEhSSh-1 measuring instrument, used in the electrometric method in coal mines is also described. Each of the methods is described and mathematical fomulae used as their theoretical basis are presented. The calculating process is explained and brief information on the design and use of the measuring instrument is given. The methods are evaluated from the viewpoint of precision. (In Russian)

  20. Rhythmic complexity and predictive coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vuust, Peter; Witek, Maria A G

    2014-01-01

    Musical rhythm, consisting of apparently abstract intervals of accented temporal events,has a remarkable capacity to move our minds and bodies. How does the cognitive systemenable our experiences of rhythmically complex music? In this paper, we describe somecommon forms of rhythmic complexity...... in music and propose the theory of predictivecoding (PC) as a framework for understanding how rhythm and rhythmic complexit y areprocessed in the brain. We also consider why we feel so compelled by rhythmic tensionin music. First, we consider theories of rhythm and meter perception, which...... ofmusic (“meter”). Finally, we review empirical studies of the neural and behavioral effects ofsyncopation, polyrhythm and groove, and propose how these studies can be seen as specialcases of the PC theory.We argue that musical rhythm exploits the brain’s general principlesof prediction and propose...

  1. V1500 Cygni - A prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katz, J.I. (Washington University, Saint Louis, MO (USA))

    1991-06-01

    Scmidt and Stockman (1991) have discovered that V1500 Cygni (Nova Cygni 1975) resembles an AM Herculis star, but with the degenerate dwarf rotating 1.8 percent faster than synchronously, and relaxing toward synchronism on a time scale of less than 200 yr. The inferred spin-down torque is unexpectedly large. It is suggested that this torque results from the interaction of the degenerate star's magnetosphere with a radiation-driven wind from the secondary, and a rapid decay of the spin-down torque, which will soon be observable is predicted. Analogous hydrodynamic torques may also phase-lock the synchronous AM Herculis stars. Study of these systems may help understand torques on neutron stars. 9 refs.

  2. Pretest Predictions for Ventilation Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Y. Sun; H. Yang; H.N. Kalia

    2007-01-17

    The objective of this calculation is to predict the temperatures of the ventilating air, waste package surface, concrete pipe walls, and insulation that will be developed during the ventilation tests involving various test conditions. The results will be used as input to the following three areas: (1) Decisions regarding testing set-up and performance. (2) Assessing how best to scale the test phenomena measured. (3) Validating numerical approach for modeling continuous ventilation. The scope of the calculation is to identify the physical mechanisms and parameters related to thermal response in the ventilation tests, and develop and describe numerical methods that can be used to calculate the effects of continuous ventilation. Sensitivity studies to assess the impact of variation of linear power densities (linear heat loads) and ventilation air flow rates are included. The calculation is limited to thermal effect only.

  3. Universal Prior Prediction for Communication

    CERN Document Server

    Lomnitz, Yuval

    2011-01-01

    We consider the problem of communicating over an unknown and arbitrarily varying channel, using feedback. This paper focuses on the problem of determining the input behavior, or more specifically, a prior which is used to randomly generate a codebook. We pose the problem of setting the prior as a universal sequential prediction problem using information theoretic abstractions of the communication channel. For the case where the channel is block-wise constant, we show it is possible to asymptotically approach the best rate that can be attained by any system using a fixed prior. For the case where the channel may change on each symbol, we combine a rateless coding scheme with a prior predictor and asymptotically approach the capacity of the average channel universally for every sequence of channels.

  4. PEMS. Advanced predictive emission monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandvig Nielsen, J.

    2010-07-15

    In the project PEMS have been developed for boilers, internal combustion engines and gas turbines. The PEMS models have been developed using two principles: The one called ''first principles'' is based on thermo-kinetic modeling of the NO{sub x}-formation by modeling conditions (like temperature, pressure and residence time) in the reaction zones. The other one is data driven using artificial neural network (ANN) and includes no physical properties and no thermo-kinetic formulation. Models of first principles have been developed for gas turbines and gas engines. Data driven models have been developed for gas turbines, gas engines and boilers. The models have been tested on data from sites located in Denmark and the Middle East. Weel and Sandvig has conducted the on-site emission measurements used for development and testing the PEMS models. For gas turbines, both the ''first principles'' and the data driven models have performed excellent considering the ability to reproduce the emission levels of NO{sub x} according to the input variables used for calibration. Data driven models for boilers and gas engines have performed excellent as well. The rather comprehensive first principle model, developed for gas engines, did not perform as well in the prediction of NO{sub x}. Possible a more complex model formulation is required for internal combustion engines. In general, both model types have been validated on data extracted from the data set used for calibration. The data for validation have been selected randomly as individual samplings, and is scattered over the entire measuring campaign. For one natural gas engine a secondary measuring campaign was conducted half a year later than the campaign used for training the data driven model. In the meantime, this engine had been through a refurbishment that included new pistons, piston rings and cylinder linings and cleaning of the cylinder heads. Despite the refurbishment, the

  5. PEMS. Advanced predictive emission monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandvig Nielsen, J.

    2010-07-15

    In the project PEMS have been developed for boilers, internal combustion engines and gas turbines. The PEMS models have been developed using two principles: The one called ''first principles'' is based on thermo-kinetic modeling of the NO{sub x}-formation by modeling conditions (like temperature, pressure and residence time) in the reaction zones. The other one is data driven using artificial neural network (ANN) and includes no physical properties and no thermo-kinetic formulation. Models of first principles have been developed for gas turbines and gas engines. Data driven models have been developed for gas turbines, gas engines and boilers. The models have been tested on data from sites located in Denmark and the Middle East. Weel and Sandvig has conducted the on-site emission measurements used for development and testing the PEMS models. For gas turbines, both the ''first principles'' and the data driven models have performed excellent considering the ability to reproduce the emission levels of NO{sub x} according to the input variables used for calibration. Data driven models for boilers and gas engines have performed excellent as well. The rather comprehensive first principle model, developed for gas engines, did not perform as well in the prediction of NO{sub x}. Possible a more complex model formulation is required for internal combustion engines. In general, both model types have been validated on data extracted from the data set used for calibration. The data for validation have been selected randomly as individual samplings, and is scattered over the entire measuring campaign. For one natural gas engine a secondary measuring campaign was conducted half a year later than the campaign used for training the data driven model. In the meantime, this engine had been through a refurbishment that included new pistons, piston rings and cylinder linings and cleaning of the cylinder heads. Despite the refurbishment, the

  6. Link prediction via generalized coupled tensor factorisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ermiş, Beyza; Evrim, Acar Ataman; Taylan Cemgil, A.

    2012-01-01

    This study deals with the missing link prediction problem: the problem of predicting the existence of missing connections between entities of interest. We address link prediction using coupled analysis of relational datasets represented as heterogeneous data, i.e., datasets in the form of matrices...... different loss functions. Numerical experiments demonstrate that joint analysis of data from multiple sources via coupled factorisation improves the link prediction performance and the selection of right loss function and tensor model is crucial for accurately predicting missing links....

  7. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    is a realization of a continuous-discrete multivariate stochastic transfer function model. The proposed prediction error-methods are demonstrated for a SISO system parameterized by the transfer functions with time delays of a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system. The simulations for this case suggest......Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which...... computational resources. The identification method is suitable for predictive control....

  8. A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research

    CERN Document Server

    Ogata, Yosihiko

    2013-01-01

    Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective prediction, complex conditions and uncertain elements must be considered, which necessitates stochastic prediction. In particular, a large amount of uncertainty lies in identifying whether abnormal phenomena are precursors to large earthquakes, as well as in assigning urgency to the earthquake. Any discovery of potentially useful information for earthquake prediction is incomplete unless quantitative modeling of risk is considered. Therefore, this manuscript describes the prospect of earthquake predictability research to realize practical operational forecasting in the near future.

  9. Adaptive nonlinear prediction of ocean reverberation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAN Weiming; LI Fenghua

    2009-01-01

    An adaptive nonlinear prediction algorithm is proposed to predict ocean reverber-ation based on the phase space reconstruction of nonlinear dynamic system. The prediction algorithm is tested by experimental reverberation data measured in two areas, and the one-step forward prediction results are in good agreement with the experimental data. If the errors between the predicted and experimental data are chosen as the variable to detect the target in the reverberation series, the reverberation is suppressed and the signal-to-reverberation ratio is improved.

  10. The 2007 TAC SCM Prediction Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardoe, David; Stone, Peter

    The TAC SCM Prediction Challenge presents an opportunity for agents designed for the full TAC SCM game to compete solely on their ability to make predictions. Participants are presented with situations from actual TAC SCM games and are evaluated on their prediction accuracy in four categories: current and future computer prices, and current and future component prices. This paper introduces the Prediction Challenge and presents the results from 2007 along with an analysis of how the predictions of the participants compare to each other.

  11. Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction. Part Ⅱ: Improvement of Wave Component Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Bomin; JI Liren; YANG Peicai; ZHANG Daomin

    2006-01-01

    Based on Chen et al. (2006), the scheme of the combination of the pentad-mean zonal height departure nonlinear prediction with the T42L9 model prediction was designed, in which the pentad zonal heights at all the 12-initial-value-input isobar levels from 50 hPa to 1000 hPa except 200, 300, 500, and 700 hPa were derived from nonlinear forecasts of the four levels by means of a good correlation between neighboring levels.Then the above pentad zonal heights at 12 isobar-levels were transformed to the spectrum coefficients of the temperature at each integration step of T42L9 model. At last, the nudging was made. On account of a variety of error accumulation, the pentad zonal components of the monthly height at isobar levels output by T42L9 model were replaced by the corresponding nonlinear results once more when integration was over.Multiple case experiments showed that such combination of two kinds of prediction made an improvement in the wave component as a result of wave-flow nonlinear interaction while reducing the systematical forecast errors. Namely the monthly-mean height anomaly correlation coefficients over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, over the Southern Hemisphere and over the globe increased respectively from 0.249 to 0.347, from 0.286 to 0.387, and from 0.343 to 0.414 (relative changes of 31.5%, 41.0%, and 18.3%).The monthly-mean root-mean-square error (RMSE) of T42L9 model over the three areas was considerably decreased, the relative change over the globe reached 44.2%. The monthly-mean anomaly correlation coefficients of wave 4-9 over the areas were up to 0.392, 0.200, and 0.295, with the relative change of 53.8%, 94.1%,and 61.2%, and correspondingly their RMSEs were decreased respectively with the rate of 8.5%, 6.3%, and 8.1%. At the same time the monthly-mean pattern of parts of cases were presented better.

  12. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    CERN Document Server

    Sinatra, Roberta

    2014-01-01

    Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are to a large extent predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two data sets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can to some extent be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions which contain information to best predict an individual's subsequent action are negative,...

  13. The predictability of consumer visitation patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Krumme, Coco; Cebrián, Manuel; Alex,; Pentland,; Moro, Esteban; 10.1038/srep01645

    2013-01-01

    We consider hundreds of thousands of individual economic transactions to ask: how predictable are consumers in their merchant visitation patterns? Our results suggest that, in the long-run, much of our seemingly elective activity is actually highly predictable. Notwithstanding a wide range of individual preferences, shoppers share regularities in how they visit merchant locations over time. Yet while aggregate behavior is largely predictable, the interleaving of shopping events introduces important stochastic elements at short time scales. These short- and long-scale patterns suggest a theoretical upper bound on predictability, and describe the accuracy of a Markov model in predicting a person's next location. We incorporate population-level transition probabilities in the predictive models, and find that in many cases these improve accuracy. While our results point to the elusiveness of precise predictions about where a person will go next, they suggest the existence, at large time-scales, of regularities ac...

  14. An Introduction to Artificial Prediction Markets

    CERN Document Server

    Barbu, Adrian

    2011-01-01

    Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of spec...

  15. Evolution of property predictability during conceptual design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salonen, Mikko; Hansen, Claus Thorp; Perttula, Matti

    2005-01-01

    A product is designed with the purpose of possessing certain properties, which are prescribed as requirements in the design specification. This paper studies the evolution of property predictability during the early phases of design in a case study context. By the term property predictability, we...... refer to the designers’ confidence in predicting product properties based on the available information. In the case study, with use of the produced design models at four different stages of concept concretisation, the designers evaluated their confidence in predicting product properties related...... to the requirements set for the task. As a result, we identified three different patterns of property predictability behaviour. These patterns consist of properties of which predictability is relatively high throughout the early phases of the design process, properties of which predictability shows a high increase...

  16. Predictive testing for Huntington's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tibben, Aad

    2007-04-30

    Worldwide, predictive testing for Huntington's disease has become an accepted clinical application that has allowed many individuals from HD-families to proceed with their life without the uncertainty of being at risk. International guidelines have extensively contributed to establishing counselling programmes of high quality, and have served as a model for other genetic disorders. Psychological follow-up studies have increased the insight into the far-reaching impact of test results for all individuals involved. Although the guidelines have served as a useful frame of reference, clinical experience has shown the importance of a case-by-case approach to do justice to the specific needs of the individual test candidate. Issues such as ambiguous test results, lack of awareness in a test candidate of early signs of the disease, non-compliance to the test protocol, or the test candidate's need for information on the relationship between age at onset and CAG-repeat require careful consideration. Receiving a test result is only one of the transition points in the life of an individual at risk; such result needs to be valued from a life-cycle perspective.

  17. Color prediction in textile application

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lucia, Maurizio; Buonopane, Massimo

    2004-09-01

    Nowadays production systems of fancy yarns for knits allow the creation of extremely complex products in which many effects are obtained by means of color alteration. Current production technique consists in defining type and quantity of fibers by making preliminary samples. This samples are then compared with a reference one. This comparison is based on operator experience. Many samples are required in order to achieve a sample similar to the reference one. This work requires time and then additional costs for a textile manufacturer. In addition, the methodology is subjective. Nowadays, spectrophotometers are the only devices that seem to be able to provide objective indications. They are based on a spectral analysis of the light reflected by the knit material. In this paper the study of a new method for color evaluation of a mix of wool fibers with different colors is presented. First of all fiber characterization were carried out through scattering and absorption coefficients using the Kubelka-Munk theory. Then the estimated color was compared with a reference item, in order to define conformity by means of objective parameters. Finally, theoretical characterization was compared with the measured quantity. This allowed estimation of prediction quality.

  18. Predictive properties of visual adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopin, Adrien; Mamassian, Pascal

    2012-04-10

    What humans perceive depends in part on what they have previously experienced. After repeated exposure to one stimulus, adaptation takes place in the form of a negative correlation between the current percept and the last displayed stimuli. Previous work has shown that this negative dependence can extend to a few minutes in the past, but the precise extent and nature of the dependence in vision is still unknown. In two experiments based on orientation judgments, we reveal a positive dependence of a visual percept with stimuli presented remotely in the past, unexpectedly and in contrast to what is known for the recent past. Previous theories of adaptation have postulated that the visual system attempts to calibrate itself relative to an ideal norm or to the recent past. We propose instead that the remote past is used to estimate the world's statistics and that this estimate becomes the reference. According to this new framework, adaptation is predictive: the most likely forthcoming percept is the one that helps the statistics of the most recent percepts match that of the remote past.

  19. Time estimation predicts mathematical intelligence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kramer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Performing mental subtractions affects time (duration estimates, and making time estimates disrupts mental subtractions. This interaction has been attributed to the concurrent involvement of time estimation and arithmetic with general intelligence and working memory. Given the extant evidence of a relationship between time and number, here we test the stronger hypothesis that time estimation correlates specifically with mathematical intelligence, and not with general intelligence or working-memory capacity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Participants performed a (prospective time estimation experiment, completed several subtests of the WAIS intelligence test, and self-rated their mathematical skill. For five different durations, we found that time estimation correlated with both arithmetic ability and self-rated mathematical skill. Controlling for non-mathematical intelligence (including working memory capacity did not change the results. Conversely, correlations between time estimation and non-mathematical intelligence either were nonsignificant, or disappeared after controlling for mathematical intelligence. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that time estimation specifically predicts mathematical intelligence. On the basis of the relevant literature, we furthermore conclude that the relationship between time estimation and mathematical intelligence is likely due to a common reliance on spatial ability.

  20. Predicting Electronic Failure from Smoke

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanaka, T.J.

    1999-01-15

    Smoke can cause electronic equipment to fail through increased leakage currents and shorts. Sandia National Laboratories is studying the increased leakage currents caused by smoke with varying characteristics. The objective is to develop models to predict the failure of electronic equipment exposed to smoke. This requires the collection of data on the conductivity of smoke and knowledge of critical electrical systems that control high-consequence operations. We have found that conductivity is a function of the type of fuel, how it is burned, and smoke density. Video recordings of highly biased dc circuits exposed in a test chamber show that during a fire, smoke is attracted to high voltages and can build fragile carbon bridges that conduct leakage currents. The movement of air breaks the bridges, so the conductivity decreases after the fire is extinguished and the test chamber is vented. During the fire, however, electronic equipment may not operate correctly, leading to problems for critical operations dependent on electronic control. The potential for electronic failure is highly dependent on the type of electrical circuit, and Sandia National Laboratories plans to include electrical circuit modeling in the failure models.

  1. Prediction of violent mechanochemical processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, R.A.; Anderson, M.U.; Holman, G.T.; Baer, M.R.

    1997-01-01

    Energetic materials, such as high explosives, propellants and ballotechnics, are widely used as energy sources in the design of numerous devices, components and processes. Although most energetic materials are selected for safe operation, their high energy densities have the potential for inadvertent initiation and subsequent powerful energy transformations. This potential for damage or injury places a heavy burden on careful analysis of safety issues as part of the design process. As a result, considerable effort has been devoted to empirical testing of initiation conditions, and development of scientific models of initiation processes that have been incorporated into computer models for numerical simulation of initiation of reaction. Nevertheless, in many cases, there is still only rudimentary understanding of the processes of initiation. Mechanochemical processes are perhaps the least understood of the various excitation mechanisms. In these energy transformation processes mechanical stimuli lead directly to initiation and substantial reaction under conditions not thought to be capable of reaction. There are no established scientific models of the initiation of mechanochemical reactions in energetic materials. Mechanochemical reactions can be initiated by enhanced solid state chemical reactivity, changes in reactant configuration, and localization of initiation energy. Such solid state reactions are difficult to understand, either empirically or scientifically, as they are inherently nonequilibrium processes; scientific models currently used assume equilibrium thermochemical conditions and materials behaviors. The present work was undertaken as a first step in developing a scientific basis for prediction of the initiation of mechanochemical processes in high energy density solids.

  2. Flavor effects on leptogenesis predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Blanchet, S; Bari, Pasquale Di; Blanchet, Steve

    2006-01-01

    Flavor effects in leptogenesis reduce the region of the see-saw parameter space where the final predictions do not depend on the initial conditions, the strong wash-out regime. In this case we show that the lowest bounds holding on the lightest right-handed (RH) neutrino mass and on the reheating temperature for hierarchical heavy neutrinos, do not get relaxed compared to the usual ones in the one-flavor approximation, M_1 (T_reh) \\gtrsim 3 (1.5) x 10^9 GeV. Flavor effects can however relax down to these minimal values the lower bounds holding for fixed large values of the decay parameter K_1. We discuss a relevant definite example showing that, when the known information on the neutrino mixing matrix is employed, the lower bounds for K_1 \\gg 10, are relaxed by a factor 2-3 for light hierarchical neutrinos, without any dependence on \\theta_13 and on possible phases. On the other hand, going beyond the limit of light hierarchical neutrinos and taking into account Majorana phases, the lower bounds can be relaxe...

  3. Holistic processing predicts face recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richler, Jennifer J; Cheung, Olivia S; Gauthier, Isabel

    2011-04-01

    The concept of holistic processing is a cornerstone of face-recognition research. In the study reported here, we demonstrated that holistic processing predicts face-recognition abilities on the Cambridge Face Memory Test and on a perceptual face-identification task. Our findings validate a large body of work that relies on the assumption that holistic processing is related to face recognition. These findings also reconcile the study of face recognition with the perceptual-expertise work it inspired; such work links holistic processing of objects with people's ability to individuate them. Our results differ from those of a recent study showing no link between holistic processing and face recognition. This discrepancy can be attributed to the use in prior research of a popular but flawed measure of holistic processing. Our findings salvage the central role of holistic processing in face recognition and cast doubt on a subset of the face-perception literature that relies on a problematic measure of holistic processing.

  4. Predictive Modeling of Cardiac Ischemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Gary T.

    1996-01-01

    The goal of the Contextual Alarms Management System (CALMS) project is to develop sophisticated models to predict the onset of clinical cardiac ischemia before it occurs. The system will continuously monitor cardiac patients and set off an alarm when they appear about to suffer an ischemic episode. The models take as inputs information from patient history and combine it with continuously updated information extracted from blood pressure, oxygen saturation and ECG lines. Expert system, statistical, neural network and rough set methodologies are then used to forecast the onset of clinical ischemia before it transpires, thus allowing early intervention aimed at preventing morbid complications from occurring. The models will differ from previous attempts by including combinations of continuous and discrete inputs. A commercial medical instrumentation and software company has invested funds in the project with a goal of commercialization of the technology. The end product will be a system that analyzes physiologic parameters and produces an alarm when myocardial ischemia is present. If proven feasible, a CALMS-based system will be added to existing heart monitoring hardware.

  5. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Sinatra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

  6. Predictability of threshold exceedances in dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bódai, Tamás

    2015-12-01

    In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events-the cornerstone also for the categoric (as opposed to probabilistic) prediction of threshold exceedances-is established from long time series of one or more observables of the same system. The prediction skill is measured by a summary index of the ROC curve that relates the hit- and false alarm rates. Our results for the examined systems suggest that exceedances of higher thresholds are more predictable; or in other words: rare large magnitude, i.e., extreme, events are more predictable than frequent typical events. We find this to hold provided that the bin size for binning time series data is optimized, but not necessarily otherwise. This can be viewed as a confirmation of a counterintuitive (and seemingly contrafactual) statement that was previously formulated for more simple autoregressive stochastic processes. However, we argue that for dynamical systems in general it may be typical only, but not universally true. We argue that when there is a sufficient amount of data depending on the precision of observation, the skill of a class of data-driven categoric predictions of threshold exceedances approximates the skill of the analogous model-driven prediction, assuming strictly no model errors. Therefore, stronger extremes in terms of higher threshold levels are more predictable both in case of data- and model-driven prediction. Furthermore, we show that a quantity commonly regarded as a measure of predictability, the finite-time maximal Lyapunov exponent, does not correspond directly to the ROC-based measure of prediction skill when they are viewed as functions of the prediction lead time and the threshold level. This points to the fact that even if the Lyapunov exponent as an intrinsic property of the system, measuring the instability of trajectories, determines predictability

  7. Probabilistic approach to earthquake prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D'Addezio

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of any earthquake forecast hypothesis requires the application of rigorous statistical methods. It implies a univocal definition of the model characterising the concerned anomaly or precursor, so as it can be objectively recognised in any circumstance and by any observer.A valid forecast hypothesis is expected to maximise successes and minimise false alarms. The probability gain associated to a precursor is also a popular way to estimate the quality of the predictions based on such precursor. Some scientists make use of a statistical approach based on the computation of the likelihood of an observed realisation of seismic events, and on the comparison of the likelihood obtained under different hypotheses. This method can be extended to algorithms that allow the computation of the density distribution of the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in space, time and magnitude. Whatever method is chosen for building up a new hypothesis, the final assessment of its validity should be carried out by a test on a new and independent set of observations. The implementation of this test could, however, be problematic for seismicity characterised by long-term recurrence intervals. Even using the historical record, that may span time windows extremely variable between a few centuries to a few millennia, we have a low probability to catch more than one or two events on the same fault. Extending the record of earthquakes of the past back in time up to several millennia, paleoseismology represents a great opportunity to study how earthquakes recur through time and thus provide innovative contributions to time-dependent seismic hazard assessment. Sets of paleoseimologically dated earthquakes have been established for some faults in the Mediterranean area: the Irpinia fault in Southern Italy, the Fucino fault in Central Italy, the El Asnam fault in Algeria and the Skinos fault in Central Greece. By using the age of the

  8. Predictive depth coding of wavelet transformed images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtinen, Joonas

    1999-10-01

    In this paper, a new prediction based method, predictive depth coding, for lossy wavelet image compression is presented. It compresses a wavelet pyramid composition by predicting the number of significant bits in each wavelet coefficient quantized by the universal scalar quantization and then by coding the prediction error with arithmetic coding. The adaptively found linear prediction context covers spatial neighbors of the coefficient to be predicted and the corresponding coefficients on lower scale and in the different orientation pyramids. In addition to the number of significant bits, the sign and the bits of non-zero coefficients are coded. The compression method is tested with a standard set of images and the results are compared with SFQ, SPIHT, EZW and context based algorithms. Even though the algorithm is very simple and it does not require any extra memory, the compression results are relatively good.

  9. Algorithm for Predicting Protein Secondary Structure

    CERN Document Server

    Senapati, K K; Bhaumik, D

    2010-01-01

    Predicting protein structure from amino acid sequence is one of the most important unsolved problems of molecular biology and biophysics.Not only would a successful prediction algorithm be a tremendous advance in the understanding of the biochemical mechanisms of proteins, but, since such an algorithm could conceivably be used to design proteins to carry out specific functions.Prediction of the secondary structure of a protein (alpha-helix, beta-sheet, coil) is an important step towards elucidating its three dimensional structure as well as its function. In this research, we use different Hidden Markov models for protein secondary structure prediction. In this paper we have proposed an algorithm for predicting protein secondary structure. We have used Hidden Markov model with sliding window for secondary structure prediction.The secondary structure has three regular forms, for each secondary structural element we are using one Hidden Markov Model.

  10. Video Traffic Prediction Using Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miloš Oravec

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider video stream prediction for application in services likevideo-on-demand, videoconferencing, video broadcasting, etc. The aim is to predict thevideo stream for an efficient bandwidth allocation of the video signal. Efficient predictionof traffic generated by multimedia sources is an important part of traffic and congestioncontrol procedures at the network edges. As a tool for the prediction, we use neuralnetworks – multilayer perceptron (MLP, radial basis function networks (RBF networksand backpropagation through time (BPTT neural networks. At first, we briefly introducetheoretical background of neural networks, the prediction methods and the differencebetween them. We propose also video time-series processing using moving averages.Simulation results for each type of neural network together with final comparisons arepresented. For comparison purposes, also conventional (non-neural prediction isincluded. The purpose of our work is to construct suitable neural networks for variable bitrate video prediction and evaluate them. We use video traces from [1].

  11. Predictive Approaches to Control of Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Karer, Gorazd

    2013-01-01

    A predictive control algorithm uses a model of the controlled system to predict the system behavior for various input scenarios and determines the most appropriate inputs accordingly. Predictive controllers are suitable for a wide range of systems; therefore, their advantages are especially evident when dealing with relatively complex systems, such as nonlinear, constrained, hybrid, multivariate systems etc. However, designing a predictive control strategy for a complex system is generally a difficult task, because all relevant dynamical phenomena have to be considered. Establishing a suitable model of the system is an essential part of predictive control design. Classic modeling and identification approaches based on linear-systems theory are generally inappropriate for complex systems; hence, models that are able to appropriately consider complex dynamical properties have to be employed in a predictive control algorithm. This book first introduces some modeling frameworks, which can encompass the most frequ...

  12. Two Comments on Predictive Picture Coding

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1998-01-01

    Two comments on predictive picture coding are given in this paper. 1) In lossy coding, the reconstructed values of picture samples, not its original values, should be used in the prediction formula. 2) In the design of optimum predictors, the minimum entropy or subjective assessment or other criterions, could be used, depending on the applications of the prediction encoder, instead of the minimum mean square error (MMSE) criterion.

  13. Recommendations for PDF usage in LHC predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Placakyte, Ringaile

    2016-01-01

    A short review of the currently available modern parton distribution functions (PDFs)and the theory predictions obtained using those PDFs for several benchmark processes at LHC, including Higgs boson production, is presented in this write-up. It includes the discussion on theory assumptions made in the determination procedure of PDFs and an impact on the differences in the obtained predictions, followed by the alternative to PDF4LHC recommendations for the usage of PDF sets for theory predictions at the LHC.

  14. Predicting Group Evolution in the Social Network

    OpenAIRE

    Bródka, Piotr; Kazienko, Przemysław; Kołoszczyk, Bartosz

    2012-01-01

    Groups - social communities are important components of entire societies, analysed by means of the social network concept. Their immanent feature is continuous evolution over time. If we know how groups in the social network has evolved we can use this information and try to predict the next step in the given group evolution. In the paper, a new aproach for group evolution prediction is presented and examined. Experimental studies on four evolving social networks revealed that (i) the predict...

  15. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    OpenAIRE

    Drisya, G. V.; Kiplangat, D. C.; Asokan, K; K. Satheesh Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that determin...

  16. Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density

    OpenAIRE

    Fabian Krüger; Ingmar Nolte

    2011-01-01

    This paper generalizes the discussion about disagreement versus uncertainty in macroeconomic survey data by emphasizing the importance of the (unknown) true predictive density. Using a forecast combination approach, we ask whether cross sections of survey point forecasts help to approximate the true predictive density. We find that although these cross-sections perform poorly individually, their inclusion into combined predictive densities can significantly improve upon densities relying sole...

  17. Shape Prediction Linear Algorithm Using Fuzzy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navjot Kaur

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the proposed method is to develop shape prediction algorithm using fuzzy that is computationally fast and invariant. To predict the overlapping and joined shapes accurately, a method of shape prediction based on erosion and over segmentation is used to estimate values for dependent variables from previously unseen predictor values based on the variation in an underlying learning data set.

  18. Predicting Process Behaviour using Deep Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Evermann, Joerg; Rehse, Jana-Rebecca; Fettke, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Predicting business process behaviour, such as the final state of a running process, the remaining time to completion or the next activity of a running process, is an important aspect of business process management. Motivated by research in natural language processing, this paper describes an application of deep learning with recurrent neural networks to the problem of predicting the next event in a business process. This is both a novel method in process prediction, which has largely relied ...

  19. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  20. EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain,...

  1. Do university entrance exams predict academic achievement?

    OpenAIRE

    Häkkinen, Iida

    2004-01-01

    The study examines which factors predict academic performance at university and compares the predictive values of subject-related entrance exams and indicators of past school performance. The results show that in the fields of engineering and social sciences entrance exams predict both graduation and the number of study credits better than past performance. In education past school performance is a better predictor of graduation. Changing the admission rule to school grades would affect the a...

  2. Applications of Neural Networks in Spinning Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程文红; 陆凯

    2003-01-01

    The neural network spinning prediction model (BP and RBF Networks) trained by data from the mill can predict yarn qualities and spinning performance. The input parameters of the model are as follows: yarn count, diameter, hauteur, bundle strength, spinning draft, spinning speed, traveler number and twist.And the output parameters are: yarn evenness, thin places, tenacity and elongation, ends-down.Predicting results match the testing data well.

  3. Protein secondary structure: category assignment and predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Claus A.; Bohr, Henrik; Brunak, Søren

    2001-01-01

    In the last decade, the prediction of protein secondary structure has been optimized using essentially one and the same assignment scheme known as DSSP. We present here a different scheme, which is more predictable. This scheme predicts directly the hydrogen bonds, which stabilize the secondary......-forward neural network with one hidden layer on a data set identical to the one used in earlier work....

  4. Predictive Model Assessment for Count Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-05

    critique count regression models for patent data, and assess the predictive performance of Bayesian age-period-cohort models for larynx cancer counts...the predictive performance of Bayesian age-period-cohort models for larynx cancer counts in Germany. We consider a recent suggestion by Baker and...Figure 5. Boxplots for various scores for patent data count regressions. 11 Table 1 Four predictive models for larynx cancer counts in Germany, 1998–2002

  5. An overview of service lifetime prediction (SLP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jorgensen, G. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO (United States)

    1995-11-01

    This report describes the need for service life prediction for photovoltaic cells and associated devices, coatings, and other related technologies. Information regarding outdoor exposure tests is given.

  6. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drisya, G. V.; Kiplangat, D. C.; Asokan, K.; Satheesh Kumar, K.

    2014-11-01

    Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error) of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

  7. Towards the perfect prediction of soccer matches

    CERN Document Server

    Heuer, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    We present a systematic approach to the prediction of soccer matches. First, we show that the information about chances for goals is by far more informative than about the actual results. Second, we present a multivariate regression approach and show how the prediction quality increases with increasing information content. This prediction quality can be explicitly expressed in terms of just two parameters. Third, by disentangling the systematic and random components of soccer matches we can identify the optimum level of predictability. These concepts are exemplified for the German Bundesliga.

  8. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements....

  9. Implementation of short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L.; Joensen, A.; Giebel, G. [and others

    1999-03-01

    This paper will giver a general overview of the results from a EU JOULE funded project (`Implementing short-term prediction at utilities`, JOR3-CT95-0008). Reference will be given to specialised papers where applicable. The goal of the project was to implement wind farm power output prediction systems in operational environments at a number of utilities in Europe. Two models were developed, one by Risoe and one by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Both prediction models used HIRLAM predictions from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). (au) EFP-94; EU-JOULE. 11 refs.

  10. Predictions of High Energy Experimental Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Comay E.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Eight predictions of high energy experimental results are presented. The predictions contain the $Sigma ^+$ charge radius and results of two kinds of experiments using energetic pionic beams. In addition, predictions of the failure to find the following objects are presented: glueballs, pentaquarks, Strange Quark Matter, magnetic monopoles searched by their direct interaction with charges and the Higgs boson. The first seven predictions rely on the Regular Charge-Monopole Theory and the last one relies on mathematical inconsistencies of the Higgs Lagrangian density.

  11. Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, Bruce Hardison [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stein, Joshua [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

  12. Fracture Toughness Prediction for MWCNT Reinforced Ceramics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henager, Charles H.; Nguyen, Ba Nghiep

    2013-09-01

    This report describes the development of a micromechanics model to predict fracture toughness of multiwall carbon nanotube (MWCNT) reinforced ceramic composites to guide future experimental work for this project. The modeling work described in this report includes (i) prediction of elastic properties, (ii) development of a mechanistic damage model accounting for matrix cracking to predict the composite nonlinear stress/strain response to tensile loading to failure, and (iii) application of this damage model in a modified boundary layer (MBL) analysis using ABAQUS to predict fracture toughness and crack resistance behavior (R-curves) for ceramic materials containing MWCNTs at various volume fractions.

  13. Tail Risk Premia and Return Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor; Xu, Lai

    The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may be attribu......The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may......-varying economic uncertainty and changes in risk aversion, or market fears, respectively....

  14. Predicting division plane position and orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minc, Nicolas; Piel, Matthieu

    2012-04-01

    Predicting cellular behavior is a major challenge in cell and developmental biology. Since the late nineteenth century, empirical rules have been formulated to predict the position and orientation of mitotic cleavage planes in plant and animal cells. Here, we review the history of division plane orientation rules and discuss recent experimental and theoretical studies that refine these rules and provide mechanistic insights into how division can be predicted. We describe why some of these rules may better apply to certain cell types and developmental contexts and discuss how they could be integrated in the future to allow the prediction of division positioning in tissues.

  15. Predicting Player Churn In the Wild

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hadiji, Fabian; Sifa, Rafet; Drachen, Anders;

    2014-01-01

    a crucial value, allowing developers to obtain data-driven insights to inform design, development and marketing strategies. One of the key challenges is modeling and predicting player churn. This paper presents the first cross-game study of churn prediction in Free-to-Play games. Churn in games is discussed...... with the individual retention model for each game in the dataset used, we develop a broadly applicable churn prediction model, which does not rely on gamedesign specific features. The presented classifiers are applied on a dataset covering five free-to-play games resulting in high accuracy churn prediction....

  16. RNA structure prediction: progress and perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Shi, Ya-Zhou; Wang, Feng-Hua; Tan, Zhi-Jie

    2014-01-01

    Many recent exciting discoveries have revealed the versatility of RNAs and their importance in a variety of cellular functions which are strongly coupled to RNA structures. To understand the functions of RNAs, some structure prediction models have been developed in recent years. In this review, the progress in computational models for RNA structure prediction is introduced and the distinguishing features of many outstanding algorithms are discussed, emphasizing three dimensional (3D) structure prediction. A promising coarse-grained model for predicting RNA 3D structure, stability and salt effect is also introduced briefly. Finally, we discuss the major challenges in the RNA 3D structure modeling.

  17. On the collagen criss-cross angles in the annuli fibrosi of lumbar spine finite element models

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    In the human lumbar spine, annulus fibrosus fibres largely contribute to intervertebral disc stability. Detailed annulus models are therefore necessary to obtain reliable predictions of lumbar spine mechanics by finite element modelling. However, different definitions of collagen orientations coexist in the literature for healthy human lumbar annuli. Therefore, four annulus fibre-induced anisotropy models were built from reported anatomical descriptions, and inserted in a L3–L5 lumba...

  18. Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2011-01-01

    Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

  19. Initial value predictability of intrinsic oceanic modes and implications for decadal prediction over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Branstator, Grant [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2014-12-09

    The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to external forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the art climate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of the predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of

  20. Computer loss experience and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Donn B.

    1996-03-01

    The types of losses organizations must anticipate have become more difficult to predict because of the eclectic nature of computers and the data communications and the decrease in news media reporting of computer-related losses as they become commonplace. Total business crime is conjectured to be decreasing in frequency and increasing in loss per case as a result of increasing computer use. Computer crimes are probably increasing, however, as their share of the decreasing business crime rate grows. Ultimately all business crime will involve computers in some way, and we could see a decline of both together. The important information security measures in high-loss business crime generally concern controls over authorized people engaged in unauthorized activities. Such controls include authentication of users, analysis of detailed audit records, unannounced audits, segregation of development and production systems and duties, shielding the viewing of screens, and security awareness and motivation controls in high-value transaction areas. Computer crimes that involve highly publicized intriguing computer misuse methods, such as privacy violations, radio frequency emanations eavesdropping, and computer viruses, have been reported in waves that periodically have saturated the news media during the past 20 years. We must be able to anticipate such highly publicized crimes and reduce the impact and embarrassment they cause. On the basis of our most recent experience, I propose nine new types of computer crime to be aware of: computer larceny (theft and burglary of small computers), automated hacking (use of computer programs to intrude), electronic data interchange fraud (business transaction fraud), Trojan bomb extortion and sabotage (code security inserted into others' systems that can be triggered to cause damage), LANarchy (unknown equipment in use), desktop forgery (computerized forgery and counterfeiting of documents), information anarchy (indiscriminate use of

  1. Continuous-Discrete Time Prediction-Error Identification Relevant for Linear Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model......A Prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...

  2. Improved query difficulty prediction for the web

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hauff, C.; Murdock, V.; Baeza-Yates, R.

    2008-01-01

    Query performance prediction aims to predict whether a query will have a high average precision given retrieval from a particular collection, or low average precision. An accurate estimator of the quality of search engine results can allow the search engine to decide to which queries to apply query

  3. PREDICTING ADVERTISING EXPENDITURES USING INTENTION SURVEYS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ALSEM, KJ; LEEFLANG, PSH

    1994-01-01

    In this article we study the use of intention surveys to predict the effects of a possible entrant. The case under investigation deals with the introduction of private broadcasting in the Netherlands. Several predictions of the advertising expenditures in various media are given which depend on a nu

  4. Efficient marker data utilization in genomic prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid

    of editing marker data, methods to handle missing genotypes and prediction using haplotypes constructed with an advanced method. The results of this study show that the accuracy of genomc prediction increases by: optimal criteria for marker data editing parameters, proper handling of missing genotypes using...

  5. Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing p

  6. The relative value of operon predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, Rutger W. W.; Kuipers, Oscar P.; van Hijum, Sacha A. F. T.

    2008-01-01

    For most organisms, computational operon predictions are the only source of genome-wide operon information. Operon prediction methods described in literature are based on (a combination of) the following five criteria: (i) intergenic distance, (ii) conserved gene clusters, (iii) functional relation,

  7. Prediction of Railway Passenger Traffic Volume

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The current situation of the railway passenger traffic (RPT) andthe traffic marketing is analyzed. The grey model theory is adopted to establish a prediction model for the railway passenger traffic volume (RPTV). The RPTV from 2001 to 2005 is predicted with the proposed model, and a few suggestions are put forward.

  8. Differential Prediction Generalization in College Admissions Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguinis, Herman; Culpepper, Steven A.; Pierce, Charles A.

    2016-01-01

    We introduce the concept of "differential prediction generalization" in the context of college admissions testing. Specifically, we assess the extent to which predicted first-year college grade point average (GPA) based on high-school grade point average (HSGPA) and SAT scores depends on a student's ethnicity and gender and whether this…

  9. Prediction of treatment response to adalimumab

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krintel, Sophine B; Dehlendorff, C; Hetland, M L;

    2016-01-01

    At least 30% of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) do not respond to biologic agents, which emphasizes the need of predictive biomarkers. We aimed to identify microRNAs (miRNAs) predictive of response to adalimumab in 180 treatment-naïve RA patients enrolled in the OPtimized treatment...

  10. Predicting Involuntary Separation of Enlisted Personnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    involuntary separation 20 ABSTRACT tConinue on rev -.. side It rect.ssaty and id.. nif hy block rnmhirl ,This report contains lh’ results of a study to compare...Subsample Size - 1000 Predicted 1 593 204 590 217 Base Rate - 65% Predicted 0 57 146 ( A1 133 Classification Accuracy (7’) 73.9 72.3 Subsample Size

  11. Optimal Online Prediction in Adversarial Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Peter L.

    In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.

  12. Different Methods of Predicting Permeability in Shale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mbia, Ernest Ncha; Fabricius, Ida Lykke; Krogsbøll, Anette

    Permeability is often very difficult to measure or predict in shale lithology. In this work we are determining shale permeability from consolidation tests data using Wissa et al., (1971) approach and comparing the results with predicted permeability from Kozeny’s model. Core and cuttings materials...

  13. Fuzzy Predictions for Strategic Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Andersen, Torben Juul; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

    This article theorizes a new way to predict firm performance based on aggregation of sensing among frontline employees about changes in operational capabilities to update strategic action plans. We frame the approach in the context of first- and second-generation prediction markets and outline it...

  14. Predictability in models of the atmospheric circulation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houtekamer, P.L.

    1992-01-01

    It will be clear from the above discussions that skill forecasts are still in their infancy. Operational skill predictions do not exist. One is still struggling to prove that skill predictions, at any range, have any quality at all. It is not clear what the statistics of the analysis error are. The

  15. The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardos, Zachary A.; Wang, Qing Yang; Trivedi, Shubhendu

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world…

  16. An Improved Algorithm for Predicting Free Recalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laming, Donald

    2008-01-01

    Laming [Laming, D. (2006). "Predicting free recalls." "Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition," 32, 1146-1163] has shown that, in a free-recall experiment in which the participants rehearsed out loud, entire sequences of recalls could be predicted, to a useful degree of precision, from the prior sequences of stimuli…

  17. Asset Pricing Restrictions on Predictability : Frictions Matter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F.A. de Roon (Frans); M. Szymanowska (Marta)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractU.S. stock portfolios sorted on size, momentum, transaction costs, M/B, I/A and ROA ratios, and industry classi…cation show considerable levels and variation of return predictability, inconsistent with asset pricing models. This means that a predictable risk premium is not equal to compe

  18. Climate Predictability and Long Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Blender, R.; Fraedrich, K.; Liu, Z.

    2010-09-01

    The benefit of climate Long Term Memory (LTM) for long term prediction is assessed using data from a millennium control simulation with the atmosphere ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM. The forecast skills are evaluated for surface temperature time series at individual grid points. LTM is characterised by the Hurst exponent in the power-law scaling of the fluctuation function which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). LTM with a Hurst exponent close to 0.9 occurs mainly in high latitude oceans, which are also characterized by high potential predictability. Climate predictability is diagnosed in terms of potentially predictable variance fractions. Explicit prediction experiments for various time steps are conducted on a grid point basis using an auto-correlation (AR1) predictor: in regions with LTM, prediction skills are beyond that expected from red noise persistence; exceptions occur in some areas in the southern oceans and over the northern hemisphere continents. Extending the predictability analysis to the fully forced simulation shows large improvement in prediction skills.

  19. How to Establish Clinical Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-ho Lee

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A clinical prediction model can be applied to several challenging clinical scenarios: screening high-risk individuals for asymptomatic disease, predicting future events such as disease or death, and assisting medical decision-making and health education. Despite the impact of clinical prediction models on practice, prediction modeling is a complex process requiring careful statistical analyses and sound clinical judgement. Although there is no definite consensus on the best methodology for model development and validation, a few recommendations and checklists have been proposed. In this review, we summarize five steps for developing and validating a clinical prediction model: preparation for establishing clinical prediction models; dataset selection; handling variables; model generation; and model evaluation and validation. We also review several studies that detail methods for developing clinical prediction models with comparable examples from real practice. After model development and vigorous validation in relevant settings, possibly with evaluation of utility/usability and fine-tuning, good models can be ready for the use in practice. We anticipate that this framework will revitalize the use of predictive or prognostic research in endocrinology, leading to active applications in real clinical practice.

  20. LocTree3 prediction of localization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goldberg, T.; Hecht, M.; Hamp, T.

    2014-01-01

    The prediction of protein sub-cellular localization is an important step toward elucidating protein function. For each query protein sequence, LocTree2 applies machine learning (profile kernel SVM) to predict the native sub-cellular localization in 18 classes for eukaryotes, in six for bacteria...

  1. Prediction in ungauged estuaries: An integrated theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Savenije, H.H.G.

    2015-01-01

    Many estuaries in the world are ungauged. The International Association of Hydrological Sciences completed its science decade on Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) in 2012 (Hrachowitz et al., 2013). Prediction on the basis of limited data is a challenge in hydrology, but not less so in estuaries, w

  2. Predicting the duration of the Syrian insurgency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich Pilster

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available While there were several relatively short uprisings in Northern Africa and the Middle East during the Arab Spring, the dispute between the rebels and government forces in Syria has evolved into a full-scale civil war. We try to predict the length of the Syrian insurgency with a three-stage technique. Using out-of-sample techniques, we first assess the predictive capacity of 69 explanatory variables for insurgency duration. After determining the model with the highest predictive power, we categorize Syria according to the variables in this final model. Based on in-sample approaches, we then predict the duration of the Syrian uprising for three different scenarios. The most realistic point prediction is 5.12 years from the insurgency’s start, which suggests an end date between the end of 2016 and early 2017.

  3. Prediction during sentence comprehension in aphasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Walsh Dickey

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Much recent psycholinguistic work has focused on prediction in language comprehension (Altmann & Kamide, 1999; Federmeier, 2007; Levy, 2008. Unimpaired adults predict upcoming words and phrases based on material in the preceding context, like verbs (Altmann & Kamide, 1999 or constraining sentence contexts (Federmeier, 2007. Several models have tied rapid prediction to the language production system (Federmeier, 2007; Pickering & Garrod, 2013; Dell & Chang, 2014. Evidence for this link comes from that fact that older adults with lower verbal fluency show less predictive behavior (Federmeier, et al., 2010; DeLong, et al., 2012. Prediction in aphasic language comprehension has not been widely investigated, even though constraining sentence contexts are strongly facilitative for naming in aphasia (e.g., Love & Webb, 1977. Mack, et al. (2013 found in a visual-world task that people with aphasia (PWA do not predict upcoming objects based on verbs (cf. Altmann & Kamide, 1999. This finding suggests that prediction may be reduced in aphasia. However, it is unclear whether reduced prediction was caused by language-production impairments: all the PWA in their study had non-fluent aphasia. The current study examined whether PWA show evidence of prediction based on constraining sentence contexts (e.g., Federmeier, 2007. Specifically, it tested whether they exhibited facilitation for highly predictable words in reading, using materials that have previously demonstrated strong predictability effects for unimpaired adults (Rayner, et al., 2004. In addition, it tested whether differences in language-production ability among PWA accounted for differences in predictive behavior (viz. Pickering & Garrod, 2013; Dell & Chang, 2014. Eight PWA read sentences adapted from Rayner, et al. (2004 in a self-paced reading task. The materials crossed word frequency with predictability: high- vs. low-frequency words (bottle/diaper were preceded by contexts which made them

  4. Hybrid Predictive Control for Dynamic Transport Problems

    CERN Document Server

    Núñez, Alfredo A; Cortés, Cristián E

    2013-01-01

    Hybrid Predictive Control for Dynamic Transport Problems develops methods for the design of predictive control strategies for nonlinear-dynamic hybrid discrete-/continuous-variable systems. The methodology is designed for real-time applications, particularly the study of dynamic transport systems. Operational and service policies are considered, as well as cost reduction. The control structure is based on a sound definition of the key variables and their evolution. A flexible objective function able to capture the predictive behaviour of the system variables is described. Coupled with efficient algorithms, mainly drawn from the area of computational intelligence, this is shown to optimize performance indices for real-time applications. The framework of the proposed predictive control methodology is generic and, being able to solve nonlinear mixed-integer optimization problems dynamically, is readily extendable to other industrial processes. The main topics of this book are: ●hybrid predictive control (HPC) ...

  5. Predicting Students’ Academic Performance in Iranian Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Namjoo

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Data mining is the process of extracting valuable and novel knowledge from large data. It is analysis of data sets for finding patterns, relationships and help to summarize the knowledge for various goals. This investigation is motivated to study the students’ academic performance in high schools during 4 years which are collected from the department of education, Shiraz, Iran. Since one of the main challenges in Iranian schools is, prediction of students’ academic performance and their success in university entrance exam, therefore, we applied different classification and prediction algorithms on students’ data for discovering the possibility of predicting students’ scores before examination. Our results show that, it is possible to predict students’ gender, marks with applying classification and prediction algorithms and verifying some factors which are mentioned in this paper

  6. Bounded link prediction in very large networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Wei; Pu, Cunlai; Xu, Zhongqi; Cai, Shimin; Yang, Jian; Michaelson, Andrew

    2016-09-01

    Evaluating link prediction methods is a hard task in very large complex networks due to the prohibitive computational cost. However, if we consider the lower bound of node pairs' similarity scores, this task can be greatly optimized. In this paper, we study CN index in the bounded link prediction framework, which is applicable to enormous heterogeneous networks. Specifically, we propose a fast algorithm based on the parallel computing scheme to obtain all node pairs with CN values larger than the lower bound. Furthermore, we propose a general measurement, called self-predictability, to quantify the performance of similarity indices in link prediction, which can also indicate the link predictability of networks with respect to given similarity indices.

  7. Green building performance prediction/assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Papamichael, Konstantinos

    2000-02-01

    To make decisions, building designers need to predict and assess the performance of their ideas with respect to various criteria, such as comfort, esthetics, energy, environmental impact, economics, etc. Performance prediction with respect to environmental impact requires complicated models and massive computations, which are usually possible only through computer-based tools. This paper focuses on the use of computer-based tools for predicting and assessing building performance with respect to environmental impact criteria for the design of green buildings. It contains analyses of green performance prediction/assessment and descriptions of available tools, along with discussions on their use by different types of users. Finally, it includes analyses of the cost and benefits of green performance prediction and assessment.

  8. The Link Prediction Problem in Bipartite Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kunegis, Jérôme; Albayrak, Sahin

    2010-01-01

    We define and study the link prediction problem in bipartite networks, specializing general link prediction algorithms to the bipartite case. In a graph, a link prediction function of two vertices denotes the similarity or proximity of the vertices. Common link prediction functions for general graphs are defined using paths of length two between two nodes. Since in a bipartite graph adjacency vertices can only be connected by paths of odd lengths, these functions do not apply to bipartite graphs. Instead, a certain class of graph kernels (spectral transformation kernels) can be generalized to bipartite graphs when the positive-semidefinite kernel constraint is relaxed. This generalization is realized by the odd component of the underlying spectral transformation. This construction leads to several new link prediction pseudokernels such as the matrix hyperbolic sine, which we examine for rating graphs, authorship graphs, folksonomies, document--feature networks and other types of bipartite networks.

  9. Emotional intelligence predicts success in medical school.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libbrecht, Nele; Lievens, Filip; Carette, Bernd; Côté, Stéphane

    2014-02-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests that effective communication and interpersonal sensitivity during interactions between doctors and patients impact therapeutic outcomes. There is an important need to identify predictors of these behaviors, because traditional tests used in medical admissions offer limited predictions of "bedside manners" in medical practice. This study examined whether emotional intelligence would predict the performance of 367 medical students in medical school courses on communication and interpersonal sensitivity. One of the dimensions of emotional intelligence, the ability to regulate emotions, predicted performance in courses on communication and interpersonal sensitivity over the next 3 years of medical school, over and above cognitive ability and conscientiousness. Emotional intelligence did not predict performance on courses on medical subject domains. The results suggest that medical schools may better predict who will communicate effectively and show interpersonal sensitivity if they include measures of emotional intelligence in their admission systems.

  10. Predictability crisis in early universe cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smeenk, Chris

    2014-05-01

    Inflationary cosmology has been widely accepted due to its successful predictions: for a "generic" initial state, inflation produces a homogeneous, flat, bubble with an appropriate spectrum of density perturbations. However, the discovery that inflation is "generically eternal," leading to a vast multiverse of inflationary bubbles with different low-energy physics, threatens to undermine this account. There is a "predictability crisis" in eternal inflation, because extracting predictions apparently requires a well-defined measure over the multiverse. This has led to discussions of anthropic predictions based on a measure over the multiverse, and an assumption that we are typical observers. I will give a pessimistic assessment of attempts to make predictions in this sense, emphasizing in particular problems that arise even if a unique measure can be found.

  11. Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...

  12. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  13. Predictability Horizon of Oceanic Rogue Waves

    CERN Document Server

    Alam, Reza

    2014-01-01

    Prediction is a central goal and a yet-unresolved challenge in the investigation of oceanic rogue waves. Here we define a horizon of predictability for oceanic rogue waves and derive, via extensive computational experiments, the first statistically-converged predictability time-scale for these structures. We show that this time-scale is a function of the sea state as well as the strength (i.e. overall height) of the expected rogue wave. The presented predictability time-scale establishes a quantitative metric on the combined temporal effect of the variety of mechanisms that together lead to the formation of a rogue wave, and is crucial for the assessment of validity of rogue waves predictions, as well as for the critical evaluation of results from the widely-used model equations. The methodology and presented results can have similar implications in other systems admitting rogue waves, e.g. nonlinear optics and plasma physics.

  14. Community Detection Based on Link Prediction Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Cheng, Hui-Min

    2016-01-01

    Community detection and link prediction are both of great significance in network analysis, which provide very valuable insights into topological structures of the network from diffrent perspectives. In this paper, we propose a novel community detection algorithm with inclusion of link prediction, motivated by the question whether link prediction can be devoted to improve the accuracy of community partition. For link prediction, we propose two novel indices to compute the similarity between each pair of nodes, one of which aims to add missing links, and the other tries to remove spurious edges. Extensive experiments are conducted on benchmark data sets, and the results of our proposed algorithm are compared with two classes of baselines. In conclusion, our proposed algorithm is competitive, revealing that link prediction does improve the precision of community detection.

  15. Predicting RNA Structure Using Mutual Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freyhult, E.; Moulton, V.; Gardner, P. P.

    2005-01-01

    Background: With the ever-increasing number of sequenced RNAs and the establishment of new RNA databases, such as the Comparative RNA Web Site and Rfam, there is a growing need for accurately and automatically predicting RNA structures from multiple alignments. Since RNA secondary structure......, to display and predict conserved RNA secondary structure (including pseudoknots) from an alignment. Results: We show that MIfold can be used to predict simple pseudoknots, and that the performance can be adjusted to make it either more sensitive or more selective. We also demonstrate that the overall...... performance of MIfold improves with the number of aligned sequences for certain types of RNA sequences. In addition, we show that, for these sequences, MIfold is more sensitive but less selective than the related RNAalifold structure prediction program and is comparable with the COVE structure prediction...

  16. Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2010-01-01

    A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm......, for which three point forecasting methods are considered as input. The probabilistic forecasts generated are evaluated based on their reliability and sharpness, while compared to forecasts based on quantile regression and the climatology benchmark. The operational application of adapted resampling...

  17. Using Neutral Network in Predicting Corporate Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huong G. Nguyen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the predictive power of three neutral network models: Multi-layer neural network, probabilistic neural network, and logistic regression model in predicting corporate failure. Basing on the database provided by The Corporate Scorecard Group (CSG, we combine financial ratios which deem to be significant predictors of corporate bankruptcy in many previous empirical studies to build our predictive models and test it against the holdout sample. On comparison of the results, we find that three models are good at predicting probability of corporate failure. Moreover, probabilistic neural network model outperforms the others. Therefore, neutral networks are useful and probabilistic neutral network is a promising tool for the prediction of corporate failure.

  18. Interactions of timing and prediction error learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

    2014-01-01

    Timing and prediction error learning have historically been treated as independent processes, but growing evidence has indicated that they are not orthogonal. Timing emerges at the earliest time point when conditioned responses are observed, and temporal variables modulate prediction error learning in both simple conditioning and cue competition paradigms. In addition, prediction errors, through changes in reward magnitude or value alter timing of behavior. Thus, there appears to be a bi-directional interaction between timing and prediction error learning. Modern theories have attempted to integrate the two processes with mixed success. A neurocomputational approach to theory development is espoused, which draws on neurobiological evidence to guide and constrain computational model development. Heuristics for future model development are presented with the goal of sparking new approaches to theory development in the timing and prediction error fields.

  19. Machine learning methods for metabolic pathway prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karp Peter D

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge in systems biology is the reconstruction of an organism's metabolic network from its genome sequence. One strategy for addressing this problem is to predict which metabolic pathways, from a reference database of known pathways, are present in the organism, based on the annotated genome of the organism. Results To quantitatively validate methods for pathway prediction, we developed a large "gold standard" dataset of 5,610 pathway instances known to be present or absent in curated metabolic pathway databases for six organisms. We defined a collection of 123 pathway features, whose information content we evaluated with respect to the gold standard. Feature data were used as input to an extensive collection of machine learning (ML methods, including naïve Bayes, decision trees, and logistic regression, together with feature selection and ensemble methods. We compared the ML methods to the previous PathoLogic algorithm for pathway prediction using the gold standard dataset. We found that ML-based prediction methods can match the performance of the PathoLogic algorithm. PathoLogic achieved an accuracy of 91% and an F-measure of 0.786. The ML-based prediction methods achieved accuracy as high as 91.2% and F-measure as high as 0.787. The ML-based methods output a probability for each predicted pathway, whereas PathoLogic does not, which provides more information to the user and facilitates filtering of predicted pathways. Conclusions ML methods for pathway prediction perform as well as existing methods, and have qualitative advantages in terms of extensibility, tunability, and explainability. More advanced prediction methods and/or more sophisticated input features may improve the performance of ML methods. However, pathway prediction performance appears to be limited largely by the ability to correctly match enzymes to the reactions they catalyze based on genome annotations.

  20. Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

  1. DPRESS: Localizing estimates of predictive uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clark Robert D

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The need to have a quantitative estimate of the uncertainty of prediction for QSAR models is steadily increasing, in part because such predictions are being widely distributed as tabulated values disconnected from the models used to generate them. Classical statistical theory assumes that the error in the population being modeled is independent and identically distributed (IID, but this is often not actually the case. Such inhomogeneous error (heteroskedasticity can be addressed by providing an individualized estimate of predictive uncertainty for each particular new object u: the standard error of prediction su can be estimated as the non-cross-validated error st* for the closest object t* in the training set adjusted for its separation d from u in the descriptor space relative to the size of the training set. The predictive uncertainty factor γt* is obtained by distributing the internal predictive error sum of squares across objects in the training set based on the distances between them, hence the acronym: Distributed PRedictive Error Sum of Squares (DPRESS. Note that st* and γt*are characteristic of each training set compound contributing to the model of interest. Results The method was applied to partial least-squares models built using 2D (molecular hologram or 3D (molecular field descriptors applied to mid-sized training sets (N = 75 drawn from a large (N = 304, well-characterized pool of cyclooxygenase inhibitors. The observed variation in predictive error for the external 229 compound test sets was compared with the uncertainty estimates from DPRESS. Good qualitative and quantitative agreement was seen between the distributions of predictive error observed and those predicted using DPRESS. Inclusion of the distance-dependent term was essential to getting good agreement between the estimated uncertainties and the observed distributions of predictive error. The uncertainty estimates derived by DPRESS were

  2. PTRANSP Tests of TGLF and Predictions for ITER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert V. Budny, Xingqiu Yuan, S. Jardin, G. Hammett, G. Staebler, J. Kinsey, members of the ITPA Transport and Confinement Topical Group, and JET EFDA Contributors

    2012-09-23

    A new numerical solver for stiff transport predictions has been developed and implemented in the PTRANSP predictive transport code. The TGLF and GLF23 predictive codes have been incorporated in the solver, verified by comparisons with predictions from the XPTOR code, and validated by comparing predicted and measured profiles. Predictions for ITER baseline plasmas are presented.

  3. Childhood asthma prediction models: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smit, Henriette A; Pinart, Mariona; Antó, Josep M; Keil, Thomas; Bousquet, Jean; Carlsen, Kai H; Moons, Karel G M; Hooft, Lotty; Carlsen, Karin C Lødrup

    2015-12-01

    Early identification of children at risk of developing asthma at school age is crucial, but the usefulness of childhood asthma prediction models in clinical practice is still unclear. We systematically reviewed all existing prediction models to identify preschool children with asthma-like symptoms at risk of developing asthma at school age. Studies were included if they developed a new prediction model or updated an existing model in children aged 4 years or younger with asthma-like symptoms, with assessment of asthma done between 6 and 12 years of age. 12 prediction models were identified in four types of cohorts of preschool children: those with health-care visits, those with parent-reported symptoms, those at high risk of asthma, or children in the general population. Four basic models included non-invasive, easy-to-obtain predictors only, notably family history, allergic disease comorbidities or precursors of asthma, and severity of early symptoms. Eight extended models included additional clinical tests, mostly specific IgE determination. Some models could better predict asthma development and other models could better rule out asthma development, but the predictive performance of no single model stood out in both aspects simultaneously. This finding suggests that there is a large proportion of preschool children with wheeze for which prediction of asthma development is difficult.

  4. COMBINING CLASSIFIERS FOR CREDIT RISK PREDICTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bhekisipho TWALA

    2009-01-01

    Credit risk prediction models seek to predict quality factors such as whether an individual will default (bad applicant) on a loan or not (good applicant). This can be treated as a kind of machine learning (ML) problem. Recently, the use of ML algorithms has proven to be of great practical value in solving a variety of risk problems including credit risk prediction. One of the most active areas of recent research in ML has been the use of ensemble (combining) classifiers. Research indicates that ensemble individual classifiers lead to a significant improvement in classification performance by having them vote for the most popular class. This paper explores the predicted behaviour of five classifiers for different types of noise in terms of credit risk prediction accuracy, and how could such accuracy be improved by using pairs of classifier ensembles. Benchmarking results on five credit datasets and comparison with the performance of each individual classifier on predictive accuracy at various attribute noise levels are presented. The experimental evaluation shows that the ensemble of classifiers technique has the potential to improve prediction accuracy.

  5. Predicting community composition from pairwise interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Jonathan; Higgins, Logan; Gore, Jeff

    The ability to predict the structure of complex, multispecies communities is crucial for understanding the impact of species extinction and invasion on natural communities, as well as for engineering novel, synthetic communities. Communities are often modeled using phenomenological models, such as the classical generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV) model. While a lot of our intuition comes from such models, their predictive power has rarely been tested experimentally. To directly assess the predictive power of this approach, we constructed synthetic communities comprised of up to 8 soil bacteria. We measured the outcome of competition between all species pairs, and used these measurements to predict the composition of communities composed of more than 2 species. The pairwise competitions resulted in a diverse set of outcomes, including coexistence, exclusion, and bistability, and displayed evidence for both interference and facilitation. Most pair outcomes could be captured by the gLV framework, and the composition of multispecies communities could be predicted for communities composed solely of such pairs. Our results demonstrate the predictive ability and utility of simple phenomenology, which enables accurate predictions in the absence of mechanistic details.

  6. Critical review of prostate cancer predictive tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shariat, Shahrokh F; Kattan, Michael W; Vickers, Andrew J; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Scardino, Peter T

    2009-12-01

    Prostate cancer is a very complex disease, and the decision-making process requires the clinician to balance clinical benefits, life expectancy, comorbidities and potential treatment-related side effects. Accurate prediction of clinical outcomes may help in the difficult process of making decisions related to prostate cancer. In this review, we discuss attributes of predictive tools and systematically review those available for prostate cancer. Types of tools include probability formulas, look-up and propensity scoring tables, risk-class stratification prediction tools, classification and regression tree analysis, nomograms and artificial neural networks. Criteria to evaluate tools include discrimination, calibration, generalizability, level of complexity, decision analysis and ability to account for competing risks and conditional probabilities. The available predictive tools and their features, with a focus on nomograms, are described. While some tools are well-calibrated, few have been externally validated or directly compared with other tools. In addition, the clinical consequences of applying predictive tools need thorough assessment. Nevertheless, predictive tools can facilitate medical decision-making by showing patients tailored predictions of their outcomes with various alternatives. Additionally, accurate tools may improve clinical trial design.

  7. Consensus contact prediction by linear programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xin; Bu, Dongbo; Li, Shuai Cheng; Li, Ming; Xu, Jinbo

    2007-01-01

    Protein inter-residue contacts are of great use for protein structure determination or prediction. Recent CASP events have shown that a few accurately predicted contacts can help improve both computational efficiency and prediction accuracy of the ab inito folding methods. This paper develops an integer linear programming (ILP) method for consensus-based contact prediction. In contrast to the simple "majority voting" method assuming that all the individual servers are equal and independent, our method evaluates their correlations using the maximum likelihood method and constructs some latent independent servers using the principal component analysis technique. Then, we use an integer linear programming model to assign weights to these latent servers in order to maximize the deviation between the correct contacts and incorrect ones; our consensus prediction server is the weighted combination of these latent servers. In addition to the consensus information, our method also uses server-independent correlated mutation (CM) as one of the prediction features. Experimental results demonstrate that our contact prediction server performs better than the "majority voting" method. The accuracy of our method for the top L/5 contacts on CASP7 targets is 73.41%, which is much higher than previously reported studies. On the 16 free modeling (FM) targets, our method achieves an accuracy of 37.21%.

  8. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  9. ACHIEVING BETTER UNDERSTANDING BY LISTENING WITH PREDICTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The skill of Listening with comprehension is anessential part of communication and basic to ESL/EFL learning.Prediction is also a key process in un-derstanding spoken language.This article intends tooffer a definition for prediction in ESL/EFL listening,examines its foundations,draws some insights into itsnature,and illustrates how to develop and employprediction in pre-listening and while-listening stages,also how to‘repair’prediction in the post-listeningstage,in an attempt to help listeners achieve the goalof better understanding.

  10. Prediction of properties of intraply hybrid composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamis, C. C.; Sinclair, J. H.

    1979-01-01

    Equations based on the mixtures rule are presented for predicting the physical, thermal, hygral, and mechanical properties of unidirectional intraply hybrid composites (UIHC) from the corresponding properties of their constituent composites. Bounds were derived for uniaxial longitudinal strengths, tension, compression, and flexure of UIHC. The equations predict shear and flexural properties which agree with experimental data from UIHC. Use of these equations in a composites mechanics computer code predicted flexural moduli which agree with experimental data from various intraply hybrid angleplied laminates (IHAL). It is indicated, briefly, how these equations can be used in conjunction with composite mechanics and structural analysis during the analysis/design process.

  11. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...

  12. Predicting Dyspnea Inducers by Molecular Topology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Gálvez-Llompart

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available QSAR based on molecular topology (MT is an excellent methodology used in predicting physicochemical and biological properties of compounds. This approach is applied here for the development of a mathematical model capable to recognize drugs showing dyspnea as a side effect. Using linear discriminant analysis, it was found a four-variable regression equations enabling a predictive rate of about 81% and 73% in the training and test sets of compounds, respectively. These results demonstrate that QSAR-MT is an efficient tool to predict the appearance of dyspnea associated with drug consumption.

  13. Trust-based collective view prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Tiejian; Xu, Guandong; Zhou, Jia

    2013-01-01

    Collective view prediction is to judge the opinions of an active web user based on unknown elements by referring to the collective mind of the whole community. Content-based recommendation and collaborative filtering are two mainstream collective view prediction techniques. They generate predictions by analyzing the text features of the target object or the similarity of users' past behaviors. Still, these techniques are vulnerable to the artificially-injected noise data, because they are not able to judge the reliability and credibility of the information sources. Trust-based Collective View

  14. Link Prediction in Complex Networks: A Survey

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Linyuan

    2010-01-01

    Link prediction in complex networks has attracted increasing attention from both physical and computer science communities. The algorithms can be used to extract missing information, identify spurious interactions, evaluate network evolving mechanisms, and so on. This article summaries recent progress about link prediction algorithms, emphasizing on the contributions from physical perspectives and approaches, such as the random-walk-based methods and the maximum likelihood methods. We also introduce three typical applications: reconstruction of networks, evaluation of network evolving mechanism and classification of partially labelled networks. Finally, we introduce some applications and outline future challenges of link prediction algorithms.

  15. Prediction of the environmental fate of chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vighi, M; Calamari, D

    1993-01-01

    An overview is presented of the possibilities of applying multimedia compartmental evaluative models, and in particular the fugacity approach, to predict the environmental distribution and fate of organic chemicals. The use of this predictive approach for the evaluation of exposure to pollutants in the aquatic system is described, with reference to different environments or discharge patterns (surface and groundwaters, point and diffuse sources of pollution). The value and limitations of this approach are noted and the need for more research to improve predictive capability and practical usefulness is indicated. Finally some practical applications of evaluative models in the proposal of quantitative indices for ecotoxicological evaluation of risk from chemicals are described.

  16. Bursting frequency prediction in turbulent boundary layers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LIOU,WILLIAM W.; FANG,YICHUNG

    2000-02-01

    The frequencies of the bursting events associated with the streamwise coherent structures of spatially developing incompressible turbulent boundary layers were predicted using global numerical solution of the Orr-Sommerfeld and the vertical vorticity equations of hydrodynamic stability problems. The structures were modeled as wavelike disturbances associated with the turbulent mean flow. The global method developed here involves the use of second and fourth order accurate finite difference formula for the differential equations as well as the boundary conditions. An automated prediction tool, BURFIT, was developed. The predicted resonance frequencies were found to agree very well with previous results using a local shooting technique and measured data.

  17. Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using COAMPS-TC

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Oceanography | Vol. 27, No.3104 S P E C I A L I S S U E O N N AV Y O P E R AT I O N A L M O D E L S Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using COAMPS...Ocean/ Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS®-TC) has been developed for prediction of tropical cyclone track, structure...and intensity. The COAMPS-TC has been tested in real time in both uncoupled and coupled modes over the past several tropical cyclone seasons in

  18. Predicting risky behavior in social communities

    CERN Document Server

    Simpson, Olivia

    2016-01-01

    Predicting risk profiles of individuals in networks (e.g.~susceptibility to a particular disease, or likelihood of smoking) is challenging for a variety of reasons. For one, `local' features (such as an individual's demographic information) may lack sufficient information to make informative predictions; this is especially problematic when predicting `risk,' as the relevant features may be precisely those that an individual is disinclined to reveal in a survey. Secondly, even if such features are available, they still may miss crucial information, as `risk' may be a function not just of an individual's features but also those of their friends and social communities. Here, we predict individual's risk profiles as a function of both their local features and those of their friends. Instead of modeling influence from the social network directly (which proved difficult as friendship links may be sparse and partially observed), we instead model influence by discovering social communities in the network that may be ...

  19. Predicting Engine Parameters using the Optical Spectrum

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Optical Plume Anomaly Detection (OPAD) system is under development to predict engine anomalies and engine parameters of the Space Shuttle's Main Engine (SSME)....

  20. Prediction of deformity in spinal tuberculosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jutte, Paul; Wuite, Sander; The, Bertram; van Altena, Richard; Veldhuizen, Albert

    2007-01-01

    Tuberculosis of the spine may cause kyphosis, which may in turn cause late paraplegia, respiratory compromise, and unsightly deformity. Surgical correction therefore may be considered for large or progressive deformities. We retrospectively analyzed clinical and radiographic parameters to predict th

  1. Asthma Medication Ratio Predicts Emergency Depart...

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — According to findings reported in Asthma Medication Ratio Predicts Emergency Department Visits and Hospitalizations in Children with Asthma, published in Volume 3,...

  2. Predictability of extreme events in social media

    CERN Document Server

    Miotto, José M

    2014-01-01

    It is part of our daily social-media experience that seemingly ordinary items (videos, news, publications, etc.) unexpectedly gain an enormous amount of attention. Here we investigate how unexpected these events are. We propose a method that, given some information on the items, quantifies the predictability of events, i.e., the potential of identifying in advance the most successful items defined as the upper bound for the quality of any prediction based on the same information. Applying this method to different data, ranging from views in YouTube videos to posts in Usenet discussion groups, we invariantly find that the predictability increases for the most extreme events. This indicates that, despite the inherently stochastic collective dynamics of users, efficient prediction is possible for the most extreme events.

  3. A Course in... Model Predictive Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkun, Yaman; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Describes a graduate engineering course which specializes in model predictive control. Lists course outline and scope. Discusses some specific topics and teaching methods. Suggests final projects for the students. (MVL)

  4. Improving predictions by cross pollination in time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schevenhoven, Francine; Selten, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Given a set of imperfect weather models, one could ask how these models can be combined in order to improve weather predictions produced with these models. In this study we explore a technique called cross-pollination in time (CPT, Smith 2001). In the CPT approach the models exchange states during the prediction. The number of possible predictions grows quickly with time and a strategy to retain only a small number of predictions, called pruning, needs to be developed. In the learning phase a pruning strategy is proposed based on retaining those solutions that remain closest to the truth. From the learning phase probabilities are derived that determine weights to be applied to the imperfect models in the forecast phase. The CPT technique is explored using low-order dynamical systems and applied to a global atmospheric model. First results indicate that the CPT approach improves the forecast quality over the individual models.

  5. Software architecture and design for reliability predictability

    CERN Document Server

    Semegn, Assefa D

    2011-01-01

    Reliability prediction of a software product is complex due to interdependence and interactions among components and the difficulty of representing this behavior with tractable models. Models developed by making simplifying assumptions about the software

  6. Financial distress prediction and operating leases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lückerath – Rovers, M.

    2009-01-01

    This study investigates whether including operating lease commitments in financial distress prediction models would increase the classification accuracy of these models. Classification accuracy measures the percentages of correctly classified companies in either of the two categories (healthy or fin

  7. Common cause failure prediction using data mapping

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kvam, Paul H.; Miller, J. Glenn

    2002-06-01

    To estimate power plant reliability, a probabilistic safety assessment might combine failure data from various sites. Because dependent failures are a critical concern in the nuclear industry, combining failure data from component groups of different sizes is a challenging problem. One procedure, called data mapping, translates failure data across component group sizes. This includes common cause failures, which are simultaneous failure events of two or more components in a group. In this paper, we present a framework for predicting future plant reliability using mapped common cause failure data. The prediction technique is motivated by discrete failure data from emergency diesel generators at US plants. The underlying failure distributions are based on homogeneous Poisson processes. Both Bayesian and frequentist prediction methods are presented, and if non-informative prior distributions are applied, the upper prediction bounds for the generators are the same.

  8. Speech Intelligibility Prediction Based on Mutual Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jesper; Taal, Cees H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of predicting the average intelligibility of noisy and potentially processed speech signals, as observed by a group of normal hearing listeners. We propose a model which performs this prediction based on the hypothesis that intelligibility is monotonically related...... to the mutual information between critical-band amplitude envelopes of the clean signal and the corresponding noisy/processed signal. The resulting intelligibility predictor turns out to be a simple function of the mean-square error (mse) that arises when estimating a clean critical-band amplitude using...... a minimum mean-square error (mmse) estimator based on the noisy/processed amplitude. The proposed model predicts that speech intelligibility cannot be improved by any processing of noisy critical-band amplitudes. Furthermore, the proposed intelligibility predictor performs well ( ρ > 0.95) in predicting...

  9. LIFE PREDICTION APPROACH FOR RANDOM MULTIAXIAL FATIGUE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Lei; Wang Dejun

    2005-01-01

    According to the concept of critical plane, a life prediction approach for random multiaxial fatigue is presented. First, the critical plane under the multiaxial random loading is determined based on the concept of the weight-averaged maximum shear strain direction. Then the shear and normal strain histories on the determined critical plane are calculated and taken as the subject of multiaxial load simplifying and multiaxial cycle counting. Furthermore, a multiaxial fatigue life prediction model including the parameters resulted from multiaxial cycle counting is presented and applied to calculating the fatigue damage generated from each cycle. Finally, the cumulative damage is added up using Miner's linear rule, and the fatigue prediction life is given. The experiments under multiaxial loading blocks are used for the verification of the proposed method. The prediction has a good correction with the experimental results.

  10. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

  11. Predictive Blacklisting as an Implicit Recommendation System

    CERN Document Server

    Soldo, Fabio; Markopoulou, Athina

    2009-01-01

    A widely used defense practice against malicious traffic on the Internet is through blacklists: lists of prolific attack sources are compiled and shared. The goal of blacklists is to predict and block future attack sources. Existing blacklisting techniques have focused on the most prolific attack sources and, more recently, on collaborative blacklisting. In this paper, we formulate the problem of forecasting attack sources (also referred to as predictive blacklisting) based on shared attack logs as an implicit recommendation system. We compare the performance of existing approaches against the upper bound for prediction, and we demonstrate that there is much room for improvement. Inspired by the recent Netflix competition, we propose a multi-level prediction model that is adjusted and tuned specifically for the attack forecasting problem. Our model captures and combines various factors, namely: attacker-victim history (using time-series) and attackers and/or victims interactions (using neighborhood models). W...

  12. Predictive supracolloidal helices from patchy particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ruohai; Mao, Jian; Xie, Xu-Ming; Yan, Li-Tang

    2014-11-01

    A priori prediction of supracolloidal architectures from nanoparticle and colloidal assembly is a challenging goal in materials chemistry and physics. Despite intense research in this area, much less has been known about the predictive science of supracolloidal helices from designed building blocks. Therefore, developing conceptually new rules to construct supracolloidal architectures with predictive helicity is becoming an important and urgent task of great scientific interest. Here, inspired by biological helices, we show that the rational design of patchy arrangement and interaction can drive patchy particles to self-assemble into biomolecular mimetic supracolloidal helices. We further derive a facile design rule for encoding the target supracolloidal helices, thus opening the doors to the predictive science of these supracolloidal architectures. It is also found that kinetics and reaction pathway during the formation of supracolloidal helices offer a unique way to study supramolecular polymerization, and that well-controlled supracolloidal helices can exhibit tailorable circular dichroism effects at visible wavelengths.

  13. On the predictability of ice avalanches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Pralong

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The velocity of unstable large ice masses from hanging glaciers increases as a power-law function of time prior to failure. This characteristic acceleration presents a finite-time singularity at the theoretical time of failure and can be used to forecast the time of glacier collapse. However, the non-linearity of the power-law function makes the prediction difficult. The effects of the non-linearity on the predictability of a failure are analyzed using a non-linear regression method. Predictability strongly depends on the time window when the measurements are performed. Log-periodic oscillations have been observed to be superimposed on the motion of large unstable ice masses. The value of their amplitude, frequency and phase are observed to be spatially homogeneous over the whole unstable ice mass. Inclusion of a respective term in the function describing the acceleration of unstable ice masses greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction.

  14. Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    1988-01-01

    The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

  15. Information Aggregation Efficiency of Prediction Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Yang (Shengyun)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ The increased complexity of the business environment, such as globalization of the market, faster introduction of new products, more interdependencies among firms and financial crises, has reduced the forecasting accuracy of conventional prediction methods based on hist

  16. Predictive Analytics with Big Social Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buus Lassen, Niels; Madsen, René; Vatrapu, Ravi

    Recent research in the field of computational social science have shown how data resulting from the widespread adoption and use of social media channels such as twitter can be used to predict outcomes such as movie revenues, election winners, localized moods, and epidemic outbreaks. Underlying......, we demonstrate how social media data from twitter and facebook can be used to predict the quarterly sales of iPhones and revenues of H&M respectively. Based on a conceptual model of social data consisting of social graph (actors, actions, activities, and artefacts) and social text (topics, keywords......, pronouns, and sentiments), we develop and evaluate linear regression models that transform (a) iPhone tweets into a prediction of the quarterly iPhone sales with an average error close to the established prediction models from investment banks (Lassen, Madsen, & Vatrapu, 2014)and (b) facebook likes...

  17. Trend prediction of chaotic time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Aiguo; Zhao Cai; Li Zhanhuai

    2007-01-01

    To predict the trend of chaotic time series in time series analysis and time series data mining fields, a novel predicting algorithm of chaotic time series trend is presented, and an on-line segmenting algorithm is proposed to convert a time series into a binary string according to ascending or descending trend of each subsequence. The on-line segmenting algorithm is independent of the prior knowledge about time series. The naive Bayesian algorithm is then employed to predict the trend of chaotic time series according to the binary string. The experimental results of three chaotic time series demonstrate that the proposed method predicts the ascending or descending trend of chaotic time series with few error.

  18. Predicting missing links via correlation between nodes

    CERN Document Server

    Liao, Hao; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2014-01-01

    As a fundamental problem in many different fields, link prediction aims to estimate the likelihood of an existing link between two nodes based on the observed information. Since this problem is related to many applications ranging from uncovering missing data to predicting the evolution of networks, link prediction has been intensively investigated recently and many methods have been proposed so far. The essential challenge of link prediction is to estimate the similarity between nodes. Most of the existing methods are based on the common neighbor index and its variants. In this paper, we propose to calculate the similarity between nodes by the correlation coefficient. This method is found to be very effective when applied to calculate similarity based on high order paths. We finally fuse the correlation-based method with the resource allocation method, and find that the combined method can substantially outperform the existing methods, especially in sparse networks.

  19. A Mathematical Prediction of Standing Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Jon

    1970-01-01

    Presents a problem in standing waves that provides an example of the mathematics used by theoretical physicists to generate predictions of new phenomena from fundamental background knowledge. Mathematical analysis required to solve problem is accomplished by simple graphical processes. (BR)

  20. Vitamin D Levels Predict Multiple Sclerosis Progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Research Matters NIH Research Matters February 3, 2014 Vitamin D Levels Predict Multiple Sclerosis Progression Among people ... sclerosis (MS), those with higher blood levels of vitamin D had better outcomes during 5 years of ...

  1. Social monitoring research for predicting mass incidents

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ Based on surveys of resident attitude, a social monitoring research team with the CAS Institute of Psychology has established a predicting model on the possibility of mass incidents, that is, collective conflicts against the administration.

  2. Improving personalized link prediction by hybrid diffusion

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Jin-Hu; Zhou, Tao

    2016-01-01

    Inspired by traditional link prediction and to solve the problem of recommending friends in social networks, we introduce the personalized link prediction in this paper, in which each individual will get equal number of diversiform predictions. While the performances of many classical algorithms are not satisfactory under this framework, thus new algorithms are in urgent need. Motivated by previous researches in other fields, we generalize heat conduction process to the framework of personalized link prediction and find that this method outperforms many classical similarity-based algorithms, especially in the performance of diversity. In addition, we demonstrate that adding one ground node who is supposed to connect all the nodes in the system will greatly benefit the performance of heat conduction. Finally, better hybrid algorithms composed of local random walk and heat conduction have been proposed. Numerical results show that the hybrid algorithms can outperform other algorithms simultaneously in all four ...

  3. Predicting growth fluctuation in network economy

    CERN Document Server

    Maeno, Yoshiharu

    2011-01-01

    This study presents a method to predict the growth fluctuation of firms interdependent in a network economy. The risk of downward growth fluctuation of firms is calculated from the statistics on Japanese industry.

  4. Predicting Well-Being in Europe?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, M. Azhar

    2015-01-01

    by the crisis. On the other hand, results are consistent with the adaption hypothesis. The same exercise is conducted applying life satisfaction instead of happiness, but we reject, against expectation, that (more transient) happiness is harder to predict than life satisfaction. Fifteen ESS countries surveyed......Has the worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s reduced the subjective wellbeing function's predictive power? Regression models for happiness are estimated for the three first rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS); 2002, 2004 and 2006. Several explanatory variables are significant...... with the expected signs and an average determination coefficient around 0.25. Based on these estimated parameters happiness is predicted for the latest three rounds of the ESS; 2008, 2010 and 2012. Happiness is slightly underestimated in both 2008 and 2010, e.g. actual happiness generally is above predicted...

  5. Prediction methods and databases within chemoinformatics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsdóttir, Svava Osk; Jørgensen, Flemming Steen; Brunak, Søren

    2005-01-01

    MOTIVATION: To gather information about available databases and chemoinformatics methods for prediction of properties relevant to the drug discovery and optimization process. RESULTS: We present an overview of the most important databases with 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional structural information...... about drugs and drug candidates, and of databases with relevant properties. Access to experimental data and numerical methods for selecting and utilizing these data is crucial for developing accurate predictive in silico models. Many interesting predictive methods for classifying the suitability...... of chemical compounds as potential drugs, as well as for predicting their physico-chemical and ADMET properties have been proposed in recent years. These methods are discussed, and some possible future directions in this rapidly developing field are described....

  6. Classification and disease prediction via mathematical programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eva K.; Wu, Tsung-Lin

    2007-11-01

    In this chapter, we present classification models based on mathematical programming approaches. We first provide an overview on various mathematical programming approaches, including linear programming, mixed integer programming, nonlinear programming and support vector machines. Next, we present our effort of novel optimization-based classification models that are general purpose and suitable for developing predictive rules for large heterogeneous biological and medical data sets. Our predictive model simultaneously incorporates (1) the ability to classify any number of distinct groups; (2) the ability to incorporate heterogeneous types of attributes as input; (3) a high-dimensional data transformation that eliminates noise and errors in biological data; (4) the ability to incorporate constraints to limit the rate of misclassification, and a reserved-judgment region that provides a safeguard against over-training (which tends to lead to high misclassification rates from the resulting predictive rule) and (5) successive multi-stage classification capability to handle data points placed in the reserved judgment region. To illustrate the power and flexibility of the classification model and solution engine, and its multigroup prediction capability, application of the predictive model to a broad class of biological and medical problems is described. Applications include: the differential diagnosis of the type of erythemato-squamous diseases; predicting presence/absence of heart disease; genomic analysis and prediction of aberrant CpG island meythlation in human cancer; discriminant analysis of motility and morphology data in human lung carcinoma; prediction of ultrasonic cell disruption for drug delivery; identification of tumor shape and volume in treatment of sarcoma; multistage discriminant analysis of biomarkers for prediction of early atherosclerois; fingerprinting of native and angiogenic microvascular networks for early diagnosis of diabetes, aging, macular

  7. Learning to predict slip for ground robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelova, Anelia; Matthies, Larry; Helmick, Daniel; Sibley, Gabe; Perona, Pietro

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we predict the amount of slip an exploration rover would experience using stereo imagery by learning from previous examples of traversing similar terrain. To do that, the information of terrain appearance and geometry regarding some location is correlated to the slip measured by the rover while this location is being traversed. This relationship is learned from previous experience, so slip can be predicted later at a distance from visual information only.

  8. Opportune maintenance and predictive maintenance decision support

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, Edouard; Levrat, Eric; Iung, Benoît; Cocheteux, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    International audience; Conventional maintenance strategies on a single component are being phased out in favour of more predictive maintenance actions. These new kinds of actions are performed in order to control the global performances of the whole industrial system. They are anticipative in nature, which allows a maintenance expert to consider non-already-planned maintenance actions. Two questions naturally emerge: when to perform a predictive maintenance action; how a maintenance expert c...

  9. Predictive Attitude Maintenance For A Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattis, Philip D.

    1989-01-01

    Paper provides mathematical basis for predictive management of angular momenta of control-moment gyroscopes (CMG's) to control attitude of orbiting space station. Numerical results presented for pitch control of proposed power-tower space station. Based on prior orbit history and mathematical model of density of atmosphere, predictions made of requirements on dumping and storage of angular momentum in relation to current loading state of CMG's and to acceptable attitude tolerances.

  10. The role of prediction in social neuroscience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elliot Clayton Brown

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Research has shown that the brain is constantly making predictions about future events. Theories of prediction in perception, action and learning suggest that the brain serves to reduce the discrepancies between expectation and actual experience, i.e. by reducing the prediction error. Forward models of action and perception propose the generation of a predictive internal representation of the expected sensory outcome, which is matched to the actual sensory feedback. Shared neural representations have been found when experiencing one’s own and observing others’ actions, rewards, errors and emotions such as fear and pain. These general principles of the ‘predictive brain’ are well established and have already begun to be applied to social aspects of cognition. The application and relevance of these predictive principles to social cognition are discussed. Evidence is presented to argue that simple non-social cognitive processes can be extended to explain complex cognitive processes required for social interaction, with common neural activity seen for both social and non-social cognitions. A number of studies are included which demonstrate that bottom-up sensory input and top-down expectancies can be modulated by social information. The concept of competing social forward models and a partially distinct category of social prediction errors are introduced. The evolutionary implications of a ‘social predictive brain’ are also mentioned, along with the implications on psychopathology. The review presents a number of testable hypotheses and novel comparisons that aim to stimulate further discussion and integration between currently disparate fields of research, with regard to computational models, behavioural and neurophysiological data. This promotes a relatively new platform for inquiry in social neuroscience with implications in social learning, theory of mind, empathy, the evolution of the social brain and potential strategies for

  11. Predictive role of the nighttime blood pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Tine W; Li, Yan; Boggia, José;

    2011-01-01

    Numerous studies addressed the predictive value of the nighttime blood pressure (BP) as captured by ambulatory monitoring. However, arbitrary cutoff limits in dichotomized analyses of continuous variables, data dredging across selected subgroups, extrapolation of cross-sectional studies to prospe......Numerous studies addressed the predictive value of the nighttime blood pressure (BP) as captured by ambulatory monitoring. However, arbitrary cutoff limits in dichotomized analyses of continuous variables, data dredging across selected subgroups, extrapolation of cross-sectional studies...

  12. Combination prediction method of chaotic time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO DongHua; RUAN Jiong; CAI ZhiJie

    2007-01-01

    In the present paper, we propose an approach of combination prediction of chaotic time series. The method is based on the adding-weight one-rank local-region method of chaotic time series. The method allows us to define an interval containing a future value with a given probability, which is obtained by studying the prediction error distribution. Its effectiveness is shown with data generated by Logistic map.

  13. Topology and prediction of RNA pseudoknots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reidys, Christian; Huang, Fenix; Andersen, Jørgen Ellegaard

    2011-01-01

    Motivation: Several dynamic programming algorithms for predicting RNA structures with pseudoknots have been proposed that differ dramatically from one another in the classes of structures considered. Results: Here, we use the natural topological classification of RNA structures in terms of irredu......Motivation: Several dynamic programming algorithms for predicting RNA structures with pseudoknots have been proposed that differ dramatically from one another in the classes of structures considered. Results: Here, we use the natural topological classification of RNA structures in terms...

  14. Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric

    2006-01-01

    Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as 'information markets', 'idea futures' or 'event futures', are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons fr...

  15. Review of prediction for thermal contact resistance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Theoretical prediction research on thermal contact resistance is reviewed in this paper. In general, modeling or simulating the thermal contact resistance involves several aspects, including the descriptions of surface topography, the analysis of micro mechanical deformation, and the thermal models. Some key problems are proposed for accurately predicting the thermal resistance of two solid contact surfaces. We provide a perspective on further promising research, which would be beneficial to understanding mechanisms and engineering applications of the thermal contact resistance in heat transport phenomena.

  16. Video Quality Prediction over Wireless 4G

    KAUST Repository

    Lau, Chun Pong

    2013-04-14

    In this paper, we study the problem of video quality prediction over the wireless 4G network. Video transmission data is collected from a real 4G SCM testbed for investigating factors that affect video quality. After feature transformation and selection on video and network parameters, video quality is predicted by solving as regression problem. Experimental results show that the dominated factor on video quality is the channel attenuation and video quality can be well estimated by our models with small errors.

  17. General predictive control using the delta operator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Morten Rostgaard; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Ravn, Ole

    1993-01-01

    This paper deals with two-discrete-time operators, the conventional forward shift-operator and the δ-operator. Both operators are treated in view of construction of suitable solutions to the Diophantine equation for the purpose of prediction. A general step-recursive scheme is presented. Finally...... a general predictive control (GPC) is formulated and applied adaptively to a continuous-time plant...

  18. Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-13-1-0408 TITLE: Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis...5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-13-1-0408 5c... pathogenesis of RA that can ultimately be targeted to prevent RA. This project has proposed to use a unique set of serum samples and clinical data

  19. The role of prediction in social neuroscience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Elliot C; Brüne, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Research has shown that the brain is constantly making predictions about future events. Theories of prediction in perception, action and learning suggest that the brain serves to reduce the discrepancies between expectation and actual experience, i.e., by reducing the prediction error. Forward models of action and perception propose the generation of a predictive internal representation of the expected sensory outcome, which is matched to the actual sensory feedback. Shared neural representations have been found when experiencing one's own and observing other's actions, rewards, errors, and emotions such as fear and pain. These general principles of the "predictive brain" are well established and have already begun to be applied to social aspects of cognition. The application and relevance of these predictive principles to social cognition are discussed in this article. Evidence is presented to argue that simple non-social cognitive processes can be extended to explain complex cognitive processes required for social interaction, with common neural activity seen for both social and non-social cognitions. A number of studies are included which demonstrate that bottom-up sensory input and top-down expectancies can be modulated by social information. The concept of competing social forward models and a partially distinct category of social prediction errors are introduced. The evolutionary implications of a "social predictive brain" are also mentioned, along with the implications on psychopathology. The review presents a number of testable hypotheses and novel comparisons that aim to stimulate further discussion and integration between currently disparate fields of research, with regard to computational models, behavioral and neurophysiological data. This promotes a relatively new platform for inquiry in social neuroscience with implications in social learning, theory of mind, empathy, the evolution of the social brain, and potential strategies for treating social

  20. Protein Structure Prediction with Visuospatial Analogy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Jim; Glasgow, Janice; Kuo, Tony

    We show that visuospatial representations and reasoning techniques can be used as a similarity metric for analogical protein structure prediction. Our system retrieves pairs of α-helices based on contact map similarity, then transfers and adapts the structure information to an unknown helix pair, showing that similar protein contact maps predict similar 3D protein structure. The success of this method provides support for the notion that changing representations can enable similarity metrics in analogy.

  1. Prediction of enteric methane emissions from cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraes, Luis E; Strathe, Anders B; Fadel, James G; Casper, David P; Kebreab, Ermias

    2014-07-01

    Agriculture has a key role in food production worldwide and it is a major component of the gross domestic product of several countries. Livestock production is essential for the generation of high quality protein foods and the delivery of foods in regions where animal products are the main food source. Environmental impacts of livestock production have been examined for decades, but recently emission of methane from enteric fermentation has been targeted as a substantial greenhouse gas source. The quantification of methane emissions from livestock on a global scale relies on prediction models because measurements require specialized equipment and may be expensive. The predictive ability of current methane emission models remains poor. Moreover, the availability of information on livestock production systems has increased substantially over the years enabling the development of more detailed methane prediction models. In this study, we have developed and evaluated prediction models based on a large database of enteric methane emissions from North American dairy and beef cattle. Most probable models of various complexity levels were identified using a Bayesian model selection procedure and were fitted under a hierarchical setting. Energy intake, dietary fiber and lipid proportions, animal body weight and milk fat proportion were identified as key explanatory variables for predicting emissions. Models here developed substantially outperformed models currently used in national greenhouse gas inventories. Additionally, estimates of repeatability of methane emissions were lower than the ones from the literature and multicollinearity diagnostics suggested that prediction models are stable. In this context, we propose various enteric methane prediction models which require different levels of information availability and can be readily implemented in national greenhouse gas inventories of different complexity levels. The utilization of such models may reduce errors

  2. Lumbar spine: pretest predictability of CT findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giles, D.J.; Thomas, R.J.; Osborn, A.G.; Clayton, P.D.; Miller, M.H.; Bahr, A.L.; Frederick, P.R.; O' Connor, G.D.; Ostler, D.

    1984-03-01

    Demographic and symptomatic data gathered from 460 patients referred for lumbosacral CT examinations were analyzed to determine if the prescan probability of normal or abnormal findings could be predicted accurately. The authors were unable to predict the presence of herniated disk on the basis of patient-supplied data alone. Age was the single most significant predictor of an abnormality and was sharply related to degenerative disease and spinal stenosis.

  3. Rater Wealth Predicts Perceptions of Outgroup Competence

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, Wayne; McCrae, Robert R.; Rogers, Darrin L.; Weimer, Amy A.; Greenberg, David M.; Terracciano, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    National income has a pervasive influence on the perception of ingroup stereotypes, with high status and wealthy targets perceived as more competent. In two studies we investigated the degree to which economic wealth of raters related to perceptions of outgroup competence. Raters’ economic wealth predicted trait ratings when 1) raters in 48 other cultures rated Americans’ competence and 2) Mexican Americans rated Anglo Americans’ competence. Rater wealth also predicted ratings of interpersona...

  4. Alpha complexes in protein structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winter, Pawel; Fonseca, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    Reducing the computational effort and increasing the accuracy of potential energy functions is of utmost importance in modeling biological systems, for instance in protein structure prediction, docking or design. Evaluating interactions between nonbonded atoms is the bottleneck of such computations......-complexes and kinetic a-complexes in protein related problems (e.g., protein structure prediction and protein-ligand docking) deserves furhter investigation.)...

  5. Confronting uncertainty in flood damage predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

    2015-04-01

    Reliable flood damage models are a prerequisite for the practical usefulness of the model results. Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005 and 2006, in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The reliability of the probabilistic predictions within validation runs decreases only slightly and achieves a very good coverage of observations within the predictive interval. Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

  6. Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

    OpenAIRE

    Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2010-01-01

    A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform of the situation-specific uncertainty of point forecasts. In order to avoid a restrictive assumption on the shape of forecast error distributions, focus is given to an empirical and nonparametric app...

  7. Service life prediction and cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis describes and discusses the applicability of a systematic methodology recommended by CIB W80/RILEM-PSL for sevice life prediction. The report describes the most important inherent and environmental factors affecting the service life of structures of cementitious composites....... On the basis of this discription of factors and experience from a test programme described in SBI Report 222, Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites, the applicabillity of the CIB/RILEM methodology is discussed....

  8. Genetic models of homosexuality: generating testable predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Gavrilets, Sergey; Rice, William R.

    2006-01-01

    Homosexuality is a common occurrence in humans and other species, yet its genetic and evolutionary basis is poorly understood. Here, we formulate and study a series of simple mathematical models for the purpose of predicting empirical patterns that can be used to determine the form of selection that leads to polymorphism of genes influencing homosexuality. Specifically, we develop theory to make contrasting predictions about the genetic characteristics of genes influencing homosexuality inclu...

  9. Improving automatic prediction of German lexical stress

    OpenAIRE

    Wagner, Petra

    2003-01-01

    Traditional approaches have regarded German stress to be predictable by localizing the initial stem syllable. Later, Metrical Phonology localized German stress close to the right edge of the stem, depending on the syllable weight. It will be shown that an algorithm based on a polytomous scale of syllable weight rather than a dichotomous one (heavy - light) is well able to predict German lexical stress. However, within the word class of proper names the algorithm fails....

  10. Unbalanced Regressions and the Predictive Equation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osterrieder, Daniela; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo

    Predictive return regressions with persistent regressors are typically plagued by (asymptotically) biased/inconsistent estimates of the slope, non-standard or potentially even spurious statistical inference, and regression unbalancedness. We alleviate the problem of unbalancedness in the theoreti......Predictive return regressions with persistent regressors are typically plagued by (asymptotically) biased/inconsistent estimates of the slope, non-standard or potentially even spurious statistical inference, and regression unbalancedness. We alleviate the problem of unbalancedness...

  11. Environmental impact prediction using remote sensing images

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pezhman ROUDGARMI; Masoud MONAVARI; Jahangir FEGHHI; Jafar NOURI; Nematollah KHORASANI

    2008-01-01

    Environmental impact prediction is an important step in many environmental studies. Awide variety of methods have been developed in this concern. During this study, remote sensing images were used for environmental impact prediction in Robatkarim area, Iran, during the years of 2005~2007. It was assumed that environmental impact could be predicted using time series satellite imageries. Natural vegetation cover was chosen as a main environmental element and a case study. Environmental impacts of the regional development on natural vegetation of the area were investigated considering the changes occurred on the extent of natural vegetation cover and the amount of biomass. Vegetation data, land use and land cover classes (as activity factors) within several years were prepared using satellite images. The amount ofbiomass was measured by Soil-adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) based on satellite images. The resulted biomass estimates were tested by the paired samples t-test method. No significant difference was observed between the average biomass of estimated and control samples at the 5% significance level. Finally, regression models were used for the environmental impacts prediction. All obtained regression models for prediction of impacts on natural vegetation cover show values over 0.9 for both correlation coefficient and R-squared. According to the resulted methodology, the prediction models of projects and plans impacts can also be developed for other environmental elements which may be derived using time series remote sensing images.

  12. Landslide forecasting and factors influencing predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intrieri, Emanuele; Gigli, Giovanni

    2016-11-01

    Forecasting a catastrophic collapse is a key element in landslide risk reduction, but it is also a very difficult task owing to the scientific difficulties in predicting a complex natural event and also to the severe social repercussions caused by a false or missed alarm. A prediction is always affected by a certain error; however, when this error can imply evacuations or other severe consequences a high reliability in the forecast is, at least, desirable. In order to increase the confidence of predictions, a new methodology is presented here. In contrast to traditional approaches, this methodology iteratively applies several forecasting methods based on displacement data and, thanks to an innovative data representation, gives a valuation of the reliability of the prediction. This approach has been employed to back-analyse 15 landslide collapses. By introducing a predictability index, this study also contributes to the understanding of how geology and other factors influence the possibility of forecasting a slope failure. The results showed how kinematics, and all the factors influencing it, such as geomechanics, rainfall and other external agents, are key concerning landslide predictability.

  13. Efficient predictive algorithms for image compression

    CERN Document Server

    Rosário Lucas, Luís Filipe; Maciel de Faria, Sérgio Manuel; Morais Rodrigues, Nuno Miguel; Liberal Pagliari, Carla

    2017-01-01

    This book discusses efficient prediction techniques for the current state-of-the-art High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard, focusing on the compression of a wide range of video signals, such as 3D video, Light Fields and natural images. The authors begin with a review of the state-of-the-art predictive coding methods and compression technologies for both 2D and 3D multimedia contents, which provides a good starting point for new researchers in the field of image and video compression. New prediction techniques that go beyond the standardized compression technologies are then presented and discussed. In the context of 3D video, the authors describe a new predictive algorithm for the compression of depth maps, which combines intra-directional prediction, with flexible block partitioning and linear residue fitting. New approaches are described for the compression of Light Field and still images, which enforce sparsity constraints on linear models. The Locally Linear Embedding-based prediction method is in...

  14. Cephalometric methods of prediction in orthognathic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolokitha, Olga-Elpis; Topouzelis, Nikolaos

    2011-09-01

    Over the past decade the growing number of adult patients seeking for orthodontic treatment made orthognathic surgery popular. Surgical and orthodontic techniques have developed to the point where combined orthodontic and surgical treatment is now feasible to manage dentofacial deformity problems very satisfactorily. The prediction of orthognathic treatment outcome is an important part of orthognathic planning and the process of patient' inform consent. The predicted results must be presented to the patients prior to treatment in order to assess the treatment's feasibility, optimize case management and increase patient understanding and acceptance of the recommended treatment. Cephalometrics is a routine part of the diagnosis and treatment planning process and also allows the clinician to evaluate changes following orthognathic surgery. Traditionally cephalometry has been employed manually; nowadays computerized cephalometric systems are very popular. Cephalometric prediction in orthognathic surgery can be done manually or by computers, using several currently available software programs, alone or in combination with video images. Both manual and computerized cephalometric prediction methods are two-dimensional and cannot fully describe three-dimensional phenomena. Today, three-dimensional prediction methods are available, such as three-dimensional computerized tomography (3DCT), 3D magnetic resonance imaging (3DMRI) and surface scan/cone-beam CT. The aim of this article is to present and discuss the different methods of cephalometric prediction of the orthognathic surgery outcome.

  15. Prediction of Microporosity in Shrouded Impeller Castings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viswanathan, S. Nelson, C.D.

    1998-09-01

    The purpose of this Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Morris Bean and Company was to link computer models of heat and fluid flow with previously developed quality criteria for the prediction of microporosity in a Al-4.5% Cu alloy shrouded impeller casting. The results may be used to analyze the casting process design for the commercial production of 206 o alloy shrouded impeller castings. Test impeller castings were poured in the laboratory for the purpose of obtaining thermal data and porosity distributions. Also, a simulation of the test impeller casting was conducted and the results validated with porosity measurements on the test castings. A comparison of the predicted and measured microporosity distributions indicated an excellent correlation between experiments and prediction. The results of the experimental and modeling studies undertaken in this project indicate that the quality criteria developed for the prediction of microporosity in Al-4.5% Cu alloy castings can accurately predict regions of elevated microporosity even in complex castings such as the shrouded impeller casting. Accordingly, it should be possible to use quality criteria for porosity prediction in conjunction with computer models of heat and fluid flow to optimize the casting process for the production of shrouded impeller castings. Since high levels of microporosity may be expected to result in poor fatigue properties, casting designs that are optimized for low levels of microporosity should exhibit superior fatigue life.

  16. Understanding Predictability and Exploration in Human Mobility

    CERN Document Server

    Cuttone, Andrea; González, Marta C

    2016-01-01

    Predictive models for human mobility have important applications in many fields such as traffic control, ubiquitous computing and contextual advertisement. The predictive performance of models in literature varies quite broadly, from as high as 93% to as low as under 40%. In this work we investigate which factors influence the accuracy of next-place prediction, using a high-precision location dataset of more than 400 users for periods between 3 months and one year. We show that it is easier to achieve high accuracy when predicting the time-bin location than when predicting the next place. Moreover we demonstrate how the temporal and spatial resolution of the data can have strong influence on the accuracy of prediction. Finally we uncover that the exploration of new locations is an important factor in human mobility, and we measure that on average 20-25% of transitions are to new places, and approx. 70% of locations are visited only once. We discuss how these mechanisms are important factors limiting our abili...

  17. Referential Choice: Predictability and Its Limits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibrik, Andrej A.; Khudyakova, Mariya V.; Dobrov, Grigory B.; Linnik, Anastasia; Zalmanov, Dmitrij A.

    2016-01-01

    We report a study of referential choice in discourse production, understood as the choice between various types of referential devices, such as pronouns and full noun phrases. Our goal is to predict referential choice, and to explore to what extent such prediction is possible. Our approach to referential choice includes a cognitively informed theoretical component, corpus analysis, machine learning methods and experimentation with human participants. Machine learning algorithms make use of 25 factors, including referent’s properties (such as animacy and protagonism), the distance between a referential expression and its antecedent, the antecedent’s syntactic role, and so on. Having found the predictions of our algorithm to coincide with the original almost 90% of the time, we hypothesized that fully accurate prediction is not possible because, in many situations, more than one referential option is available. This hypothesis was supported by an experimental study, in which participants answered questions about either the original text in the corpus, or about a text modified in accordance with the algorithm’s prediction. Proportions of correct answers to these questions, as well as participants’ rating of the questions’ difficulty, suggested that divergences between the algorithm’s prediction and the original referential device in the corpus occur overwhelmingly in situations where the referential choice is not categorical. PMID:27721800

  18. Expectation and attention in hierarchical auditory prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chennu, Srivas; Noreika, Valdas; Gueorguiev, David; Blenkmann, Alejandro; Kochen, Silvia; Ibáñez, Agustín; Owen, Adrian M; Bekinschtein, Tristan A

    2013-07-03

    Hierarchical predictive coding suggests that attention in humans emerges from increased precision in probabilistic inference, whereas expectation biases attention in favor of contextually anticipated stimuli. We test these notions within auditory perception by independently manipulating top-down expectation and attentional precision alongside bottom-up stimulus predictability. Our findings support an integrative interpretation of commonly observed electrophysiological signatures of neurodynamics, namely mismatch negativity (MMN), P300, and contingent negative variation (CNV), as manifestations along successive levels of predictive complexity. Early first-level processing indexed by the MMN was sensitive to stimulus predictability: here, attentional precision enhanced early responses, but explicit top-down expectation diminished it. This pattern was in contrast to later, second-level processing indexed by the P300: although sensitive to the degree of predictability, responses at this level were contingent on attentional engagement and in fact sharpened by top-down expectation. At the highest level, the drift of the CNV was a fine-grained marker of top-down expectation itself. Source reconstruction of high-density EEG, supported by intracranial recordings, implicated temporal and frontal regions differentially active at early and late levels. The cortical generators of the CNV suggested that it might be involved in facilitating the consolidation of context-salient stimuli into conscious perception. These results provide convergent empirical support to promising recent accounts of attention and expectation in predictive coding.

  19. Water resources assessment and prediction in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guangsheng; Dai, Ning; Yang, Jianqing; Wang, Jinxing

    2016-10-01

    Water resources assessment in China, can be classified into three groups: (i) comprehensive water resources assessment, (ii) annual water resources assessment, and (iii) industrial project water resources assessment. Comprehensive water resources assessment is the conventional assessment where the frequency distribution of water resources in basins or provincial regions are analyzed. For the annual water resources assessment, water resources of the last year in basins or provincial regions are usually assessed. For the industrial project water resources assessment, the water resources situation before the construction of industrial project has to be assessed. To address the climate and environmental changes, hydrological and statistical models are widely applied for studies on assessing water resources changes. For the water resources prediction in China usually the monthly runoff prediction is used. In most low flow seasons, the flow recession curve is commonly used as prediction method. In the humid regions, the rainfall-runoff ensemble prediction (ESP) has been widely applied for the monthly runoff prediction. The conditional probability method for the monthly runoff prediction was also applied to assess next month runoff probability under a fixed initial condition.

  20. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children.