WorldWideScience

Sample records for anthropogenic ecological change

  1. Anthropogenic ecological change and impacts on mosquito breeding and control strategies in salt-marshes, Northern Territory, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacups, Susan; Warchot, Allan; Whelan, Peter

    2012-06-01

    Darwin, in the tropical north of Australia, is subject to high numbers of mosquitoes and several mosquito-borne diseases. Many of Darwin's residential areas were built in close proximity to tidally influenced swamps, where long-term storm-water run-off from nearby residences into these swamps has led to anthropogenic induced ecological change. When natural wet-dry cycles were disrupted, bare mud-flats and mangroves were transformed into perennial fresh to brackish-water reed swamps. Reed swamps provided year-round breeding habitat for many mosquito species, such that mosquito abundance was less predictable and seasonally dependent, but constant and often occurring in plague proportions. Drainage channels were constructed throughout the wetlands to reduce pooled water during dry-season months. This study assesses the impact of drainage interventions on vegetation and mosquito ecology in three salt-marshes in the Darwin area. Findings revealed a universal decline in dry-season mosquito abundance in each wetland system. However, some mosquito species increased in abundance during wet-season months. Due to the high expense and potentially detrimental environmental impacts of ecosystem and non-target species disturbance, large-scale modifications such as these are sparingly undertaken. However, our results indicate that some large scale environmental modification can assist the process of wetland restoration, as appears to be the case for these salt marsh systems. Drainage in all three systems has been restored to closer to their original salt-marsh ecosystems, while reducing mosquito abundances, thereby potentially lowering the risk of vector-borne disease transmission and mosquito pest biting problems.

  2. Water stress projections for the northeastern and Midwestern United States in 2060: anthropogenic and ecological consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian G. Tavernia; Mark D. Nelson; Peter Caldwell; Ge Sun

    2013-01-01

    Future climate and land-use changes and growing human populations may reduce the abundance of water resources relative to anthropogenic and ecological needs in the Northeast and Midwest (U.S.). We used output from WaSSI, a water accounting model, to assess potential changes between 2010 and 2060 in (1) anthropogenic water stress for watersheds throughout the Northeast...

  3. Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Ecological Restoration of Wetlands in the Arid Regions of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haibo Wang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available As an important part of the global ecosystem, wetlands and their dynamics greatly influence regional eco-environment systems. To understand the distributions, change processes and temporal-spatial characteristics of the wetlands of the inland river basin in an arid region (Heihe River Basin, HRB, this paper employed multi-source remote sensing data to facilitate multi-temporal monitoring of the HRB wetland using a wetland information extraction method. First, we performed monitoring of these wetlands for the years 2000, 2007, 2011 and 2014; then, we analyzed the variation characteristics of the spatial-temporal dynamics of the wetlands in the HRB over the last 15 years via the landscape dynamic change model and the transformation matrix. In addition, we studied the possible driving mechanisms of these changes. The research results showed that the total area of the HRB wetlands had decreased by 2959.13 hectares in the last 15 years (Since 2000, and the annual average loss was −1.09%. The dynamics characterizing the HRB wetlands generally presented a trend of slow increase after an initial decrease, which can be classified into three stages. From 2000 to 2007, the total wetland area rapidly decreased; from 2007 to 2011, the area slowly decreased; and from 2011 to 2014, the area gradually increased. The dynamic changing processes characterizing the wetland resources were ascribed to a combination of natural processes and human activities. The main driving mechanisms of wetland dynamic changes include climatic conditions, upper reach water inflows, population, water resources, cultivated area, and policy. The findings of this study can served as reference and support for the conservation and management of wetland resources in the HRB.

  4. Modelling of anthropogenic and natural climate changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H; Mikolajewicz, U; Bakan, S [Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)

    1993-06-01

    The delay of anthropogenic climate change caused by oceans and other slowly reacting climate system components forces us to numerical modeling as the basis of decisions. For three three-dimensional numerical examples, namely transient coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the additional greenhouse effect, internal ocean-atmosphere variability, and disturbance by soot particles from burning oil wells, the present-day status is described. From all anthropogenic impacts on the radiative balance, the contribution from trace gases is the most important.

  5. The changing hydro-ecological dynamics of rivers and deltas of the Western Indian Ocean: Anthropogenic and environmental drivers, local adaptation and policy response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvail, Stéphanie; Hamerlynck, Olivier; Paron, Paolo; Hervé, Dominique; Nyingi, Wanja D.; Leone, Michele

    2017-10-01

    The rivers flowing into the Western Indian Ocean have steep headwater gradients and carry high sediment loads. In combination with strong tides and seasonal rainfall, these rivers create dynamic deltas with biodiversity-rich and productive ecosystems that, through flooding, have sustained indigenous use systems for centuries. However, river catchments are rapidly changing due to deforestation. Hydropower dams also increasingly alter flood characteristics, reduce sediment supply and contribute to coastal erosion. These impacts are compounded by climate change. Altogether, these changes affect the livelihoods of the delta users. Here, based on prior works that we and others have conducted in the region, we analyse the drivers of these hydro-ecological changes. We then provide recommendations for improved dam design and operations to sustain the underlying delta-building processes, the ecosystem values and the needs of the users.

  6. Natural and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, M.K.W.; Clough, S.A.; Molnar, G.I.; Iacono, M.; Wang, W.C.; State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY

    1992-03-01

    This report consists of two parts: (1) progress for the period 9/1/91--3/31/92 and (2) the plan for the remaining period 4/1/92--8/31/92. The project includes two tasks: atmospheric radiation and improvement of climate models to evaluate the climatic effects of radiation changes. The atmospheric radiation task includes four subtasks: (1) Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM), (2) analysis of the water vapor continuum using line-by-line calculations to develop a parameterization for use in climate models, (3) parameterization of longwave radiation and (4) climate/radiation interactions of desert aerosols. Our effort in this period is focused on the first three subtasks. The improvement of climate models to evaluate the subtasks: (1) general circulation model study and (2) 2- D model development and application

  7. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between...... climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...

  8. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C; Hartter, Joel; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary; Moore, David W; Safford, Thomas G

    2015-01-01

    A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

  9. Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2018-03-01

    Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

  10. The evaluation of anthropogenic impact on the ecological stability of landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaeli, Eva; Ivanová, Monika; Koco, Štefan

    2015-01-01

    The model area is the northern surrounding of the water reservoir Zemplinska Irava in the east of Slovakia. Selection of the examined territory and the time horizons was not random. The aim was to capture the intensity level of anthropogenic impact on the values of the coefficient of ecological stability after the construction of water reservoir, Zempifnska Irava. The contribution evaluates ecological stability of landscape in the years 1956 and 2009 by GIS technology, using two methods. The first method determines the rate of ecological stability of landscape on the basis of the significance of land cover classes in the regular network of squares (the real size of the square is 0.5 square km). The second method determines the ecological stability of landscape secondary on the basis of the man influence on the landscape. A comparison of two methods has been made, as well as interpretation of the output data (e.g., monitoring the impact of marginal land cover classes with the minimal surfaces in the grid of square at the fluctuation of the index of ecological stability, respectively, it considers the possibilities to streamline the research results using homogeneous spatial units) and it also allows to track the changes in the ecological stability of the landscape in chronological development.

  11. Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Han-Li; Marsh, Daniel R.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Qian, Liying; Vitt, Francis M.

    2018-02-01

    We simulated anthropogenic global change through the entire atmosphere, including the thermosphere and ionosphere, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended. The basic result was that even as the lower atmosphere gradually warms, the upper atmosphere rapidly cools. The simulations employed constant low solar activity conditions, to remove the effects of variable solar and geomagnetic activity. Global mean annual mean temperature increased at a rate of +0.2 K/decade at the surface and +0.4 K/decade in the upper troposphere but decreased by about -1 K/decade in the stratosphere-mesosphere and -2.8 K/decade in the thermosphere. Near the mesopause, temperature decreases were small compared to the interannual variation, so trends in that region are uncertain. Results were similar to previous modeling confined to specific atmospheric levels and compared favorably with available measurements. These simulations demonstrate the ability of a single comprehensive numerical model to characterize global change throughout the atmosphere.

  12. Recent changes in anthropogenic reactive nitrogen compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andronache, Constantin

    2014-05-01

    Significant anthropogenic perturbations of the nitrogen cycle are the result of rapid population growth, with mounting need for food and energy production. The increase of reactive nitrogen compounds (such as NOx, HNO3, NH3, and N2O) has a significant impact on human health, environment, and climate. NOx emissions contribute to O3 chemistry, aerosol formation and acidic precipitation. Ammonia is a notable atmospheric pollutant that may deteriorate ecosystems and contribute to respiratory problems. It reacts with acidic gases to form aerosols or is deposited back to ecosystems. The application of fertilizers accounts for most of the N2O production, adding to greenhouse gas emissions. We analyze the change of some reactive nitrogen compounds based on observations, in eastern United States. Results show that the control of NOx and SO2 emissions over the last decades caused a significant decrease of acidic deposition. The nitrate deposition is highest in eastern US, while the ammonium ion concentration is highest in central US regions. Overall, the inorganic nitrogen wet deposition from nitrate and ammonium is enhanced in central, and eastern US. Research shows that sensitive ecosystems in northeastern regions exhibit a slow recovery from the accumulated effects of acidic deposition. Given the growing demand for nitrogen in agriculture and industry, we discuss possible pathways to reduce the impact of excess reactive nitrogen on the environment.

  13. DEPENDENCE OF GRASS COVER TAXONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL STRUCTURE ON THE ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACT IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. V. Miroshnik

    2016-01-01

    revealed the domination of plant species that are tolerant to transformed forest conditions due to drastic anthropogenic changes of ecological regimes in Chygyryn's Bor. Key words: grass cover, Chigirin's Bor, anthropogenic impact, forest ecosystem, industrial transformation and degradation of grass cover.

  14. Anthropogenic Influences on Estuarine Sedimentation and Ecology: Examples from Varved Sediments of the Pettaquamscutt River Estuary, Rhode Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estuaries and lakes are undergoing anthropogenic alterations as development and industry intensify in the modern world. Assessing the ecological health of such water bodies is difficult because accurate accounts of pre-anthropogenic estuarine/lacustrine conditions do not exist. ...

  15. Linking effects of anthropogenic debris to ecological impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Browne, M.A.; Underwood, A.J.; Chapman, M.G.; Williams, R.; Thompson, R.C.; Franeker, van J.A.

    2015-01-01

    Accelerated contamination of habitats with debris has caused increased effort to determine ecological impacts. Strikingly, most work on organisms focuses on sublethal responses to plastic debris. This is controversial because (i) researchers have ignored medical insights about the mechanisms that

  16. Linking effects of anthropogenic debris to ecological impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Mark Anthony; Underwood, A J; Chapman, M G; Williams, Rob; Thompson, Richard C; van Franeker, Jan A

    2015-05-22

    Accelerated contamination of habitats with debris has caused increased effort to determine ecological impacts. Strikingly, most work on organisms focuses on sublethal responses to plastic debris. This is controversial because (i) researchers have ignored medical insights about the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to disease and mortality, and (ii) debris is considered non-hazardous by policy-makers, possibly because individuals can be injured or removed from populations and assemblages without ecological impacts. We reviewed the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to assemblages and populations. Using plastic, we show microplastics reduce the 'health', feeding, growth and survival of ecosystem engineers. Larger debris alters assemblages because fishing-gear and tyres kill animals and damage habitat-forming plants, and because floating bottles facilitate recruitment and survival of novel taxa. Where ecological linkages are not known, we show how to establish hypothetical links by synthesizing studies to assess the likelihood of impacts. We also consider how population models examine ecological linkages and guide management of ecological impacts. We show that by focusing on linkages to ecological impacts rather than the presence of debris and its sublethal impacts, we could reduce threats posed by debris. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  17. Linking effects of anthropogenic debris to ecological impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Mark Anthony; Underwood, A. J.; Chapman, M. G.; Williams, Rob; Thompson, Richard C.; van Franeker, Jan A.

    2015-01-01

    Accelerated contamination of habitats with debris has caused increased effort to determine ecological impacts. Strikingly, most work on organisms focuses on sublethal responses to plastic debris. This is controversial because (i) researchers have ignored medical insights about the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to disease and mortality, and (ii) debris is considered non-hazardous by policy-makers, possibly because individuals can be injured or removed from populations and assemblages without ecological impacts. We reviewed the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to assemblages and populations. Using plastic, we show microplastics reduce the ‘health’, feeding, growth and survival of ecosystem engineers. Larger debris alters assemblages because fishing-gear and tyres kill animals and damage habitat-forming plants, and because floating bottles facilitate recruitment and survival of novel taxa. Where ecological linkages are not known, we show how to establish hypothetical links by synthesizing studies to assess the likelihood of impacts. We also consider how population models examine ecological linkages and guide management of ecological impacts. We show that by focusing on linkages to ecological impacts rather than the presence of debris and its sublethal impacts, we could reduce threats posed by debris. PMID:25904661

  18. Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boivin, Nicole L; Zeder, Melinda A; Fuller, Dorian Q; Crowther, Alison; Larson, Greger; Erlandson, Jon M; Denham, Tim; Petraglia, Michael D

    2016-06-07

    The exhibition of increasingly intensive and complex niche construction behaviors through time is a key feature of human evolution, culminating in the advanced capacity for ecosystem engineering exhibited by Homo sapiens A crucial outcome of such behaviors has been the dramatic reshaping of the global biosphere, a transformation whose early origins are increasingly apparent from cumulative archaeological and paleoecological datasets. Such data suggest that, by the Late Pleistocene, humans had begun to engage in activities that have led to alterations in the distributions of a vast array of species across most, if not all, taxonomic groups. Changes to biodiversity have included extinctions, extirpations, and shifts in species composition, diversity, and community structure. We outline key examples of these changes, highlighting findings from the study of new datasets, like ancient DNA (aDNA), stable isotopes, and microfossils, as well as the application of new statistical and computational methods to datasets that have accumulated significantly in recent decades. We focus on four major phases that witnessed broad anthropogenic alterations to biodiversity-the Late Pleistocene global human expansion, the Neolithic spread of agriculture, the era of island colonization, and the emergence of early urbanized societies and commercial networks. Archaeological evidence documents millennia of anthropogenic transformations that have created novel ecosystems around the world. This record has implications for ecological and evolutionary research, conservation strategies, and the maintenance of ecosystem services, pointing to a significant need for broader cross-disciplinary engagement between archaeology and the biological and environmental sciences.

  19. Anthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Beirne, M D; Werne, J P; Hecky, R E; Johnson, T C; Katsev, S; Reavie, E D

    2017-06-09

    Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter many facets of Earth's freshwater resources, especially lacustrine ecosystems. The effects of anthropogenic changes in Lake Superior, which is Earth's largest freshwater lake by area, are not well documented (spatially or temporally) and predicted future states in response to climate change vary. Here we show that Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in production throughout the Holocene using (paleo)productivity proxies in lacustrine sediments to reconstruct past changes in primary production. Furthermore, data from the last century indicate a rapid increase in primary production, which we attribute to increasing surface water temperatures and longer seasonal stratification related to longer ice-free periods in Lake Superior due to anthropogenic climate warming. These observations demonstrate that anthropogenic effects have become a prominent influence on one of Earth's largest, most pristine lacustrine ecosystems.

  20. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, G; Stone, D

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

  1. Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Archer

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Methane frozen into hydrate makes up a large reservoir of potentially volatile carbon below the sea floor and associated with permafrost soils. This reservoir intuitively seems precarious, because hydrate ice floats in water, and melts at Earth surface conditions. The hydrate reservoir is so large that if 10% of the methane were released to the atmosphere within a few years, it would have an impact on the Earth's radiation budget equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric CO2.

    Hydrates are releasing methane to the atmosphere today in response to anthropogenic warming, for example along the Arctic coastline of Siberia. However most of the hydrates are located at depths in soils and ocean sediments where anthropogenic warming and any possible methane release will take place over time scales of millennia. Individual catastrophic releases like landslides and pockmark explosions are too small to reach a sizable fraction of the hydrates. The carbon isotopic excursion at the end of the Paleocene has been interpreted as the release of thousands of Gton C, possibly from hydrates, but the time scale of the release appears to have been thousands of years, chronic rather than catastrophic.

    The potential climate impact in the coming century from hydrate methane release is speculative but could be comparable to climate feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere and from peat, significant but not catastrophic. On geologic timescales, it is conceivable that hydrates could release as much carbon to the atmosphere/ocean system as we do by fossil fuel combustion.

  2. Anthropogenic and ecological drivers of amphibian disease (ranavirosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra C North

    Full Text Available Ranaviruses are causing mass amphibian die-offs in North America, Europe and Asia, and have been implicated in the decline of common frog (Rana temporaria populations in the UK. Despite this, we have very little understanding of the environmental drivers of disease occurrence and prevalence. Using a long term (1992-2000 dataset of public reports of amphibian mortalities, we assess a set of potential predictors of the occurrence and prevalence of Ranavirus-consistent common frog mortality events in Britain. We reveal the influence of biotic and abiotic drivers of this disease, with many of these abiotic characteristics being anthropogenic. Whilst controlling for the geographic distribution of mortality events, disease prevalence increases with increasing frog population density, presence of fish and wild newts, increasing pond depth and the use of garden chemicals. The presence of an alternative host reduces prevalence, potentially indicating a dilution effect. Ranavirosis occurrence is associated with the presence of toads, an urban setting and the use of fish care products, providing insight into the causes of emergence of disease. Links between occurrence, prevalence, pond characteristics and garden management practices provides useful management implications for reducing the impacts of Ranavirus in the wild.

  3. Current anthropogenes and issues of soil ecology of Kazakstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bel'gibaev, M.E.; Faizov, K.Sh.

    1996-01-01

    Information on ecological condition of soils on the Kazakhstan territory is cited. Loss of soils fertility because of erosion, deflation and pollution by heavy metals has been registered almost in all regions. Total soil degradation conducts to its desertification and landscape destabilization. In particular, in West Kazakstan there is nuclear site 'Kapustin Yar' functioned more than 45 years. On the site with total area of 1.4 mil. ha there were 29 nuclear explosions carried out (19-underground, 10-atmosphere), 29 000 missiles were set off as well. In the result the vast territory of top-soil is contaminated by radionuclides, heavy metals, residues of missiles fuels. Today underground cavities, formed after nuclear explosions on the Azgir site, have used as depositories for storage of high contaminated biologically dangerous radioactive substances

  4. Use of Anthropogenic Sea Floor Structures by Australian Fur Seals: Potential Positive Ecological Impacts of Marine Industrial Development?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnould, John P Y; Monk, Jacquomo; Ierodiaconou, Daniel; Hindell, Mark A; Semmens, Jayson; Hoskins, Andrew J; Costa, Daniel P; Abernathy, Kyler; Marshall, Greg J

    2015-01-01

    Human-induced changes to habitats can have deleterious effects on many species that occupy them. However, some species can adapt and even benefit from such modifications. Artificial reefs have long been used to provide habitat for invertebrate communities and promote local fish populations. With the increasing demand for energy resources within ocean systems, there has been an expansion of infrastructure in near-shore benthic environments which function as de facto artificial reefs. Little is known of their use by marine mammals. In this study, the influence of anthropogenic sea floor structures (pipelines, cable routes, wells and shipwrecks) on the foraging locations of 36 adult female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) was investigated. For 9 (25%) of the individuals, distance to anthropogenic sea floor structures was the most important factor in determining the location of intensive foraging activity. Whereas the influence of anthropogenic sea floor structures on foraging locations was not related to age and mass, it was positively related to flipper length/standard length (a factor which can affect manoeuvrability). A total of 26 (72%) individuals tracked with GPS were recorded spending time in the vicinity of structures (from 75% of the foraging trip duration) with pipelines and cable routes being the most frequented. No relationships were found between the amount of time spent frequenting anthropogenic structures and individual characteristics. More than a third (35%) of animals foraging near anthropogenic sea floor structures visited more than one type of structure. These results further highlight potentially beneficial ecological outcomes of marine industrial development.

  5. Restoring fish ecological quality in estuaries: Implication of interactive and cumulative effects among anthropogenic stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teichert, Nils; Borja, Angel; Chust, Guillem; Uriarte, Ainhize; Lepage, Mario

    2016-01-15

    Estuaries are subjected to multiple anthropogenic stressors, which have additive, antagonistic or synergistic effects. Current challenges include the use of large databases of biological monitoring surveys (e.g. the European Water Framework Directive) to help environmental managers prioritizing restoration measures. This study investigated the impact of nine stressor categories on the fish ecological status derived from 90 estuaries of the North East Atlantic countries. We used a random forest model to: 1) detect the dominant stressors and their non-linear effects; 2) evaluate the ecological benefits expected from reducing pressure from stressors; and 3) investigate the interactions among stressors. Results showed that largest restoration benefits were expected when mitigating water pollution and oxygen depletion. Non-additive effects represented half of pairwise interactions among stressors, and antagonisms were the most common. Dredged sediments, flow changes and oxygen depletion were predominantly implicated in non-additive interactions, whereas the remainder stressors often showed additive impacts. The prevalence of interactive impacts reflects a complex scenario for estuaries management; hence, we proposed a step-by-step restoration scheme focusing on the mitigation of stressors providing the maximum of restoration benefits under a multi-stress context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Detecting anthropogenic climate change with an optimal fingerprint method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegerl, G.C.; Storch, H. von; Hasselmann, K.; Santer, B.D.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    We propose a general fingerprint strategy to detect anthropogenic climate change and present application to near surface temperature trends. An expected time-space-variable pattern of anthropogenic climate change (the 'signal') is identified through application of an appropriate optimally matched space-time filter (the 'fingerprint') to the observations. The signal and the fingerprint are represented in a space with sufficient observed and simulated data. The signal pattern is derived from a model-generated prediction of anthropogenic climate change. Application of the fingerprint filter to the data yields a scalar detection variable. The statistically optimal fingerprint is obtained by weighting the model-predicted pattern towards low-noise directions. A combination of model output and observations is used to estimate the noise characteristics of the detection variable, arising from the natural variability of climate in the absence of external forcing. We test then the null hypothesis that the observed climate change is part of natural climate variability. We conclude that a statistically significant externally induced warming has been observed, with the caveat of a possibly inadequate estimate of the internal climate variability. In order to attribute this warming uniquely to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, more information on the climate's response to other forcing mechanisms (e.g. changes in solar radiation, volcanic or anthropogenic aerosols) and their interaction is needed. (orig./KW)

  7. Ecology for a changing earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, J.H.; Roughgarden, J.

    1990-01-01

    To forecast the ecological impact of global change, research initiatives are needed on the explicit role of humans in ecological systems, and on how ecological processes functioning at different spatial and temporal scales are coupled. Furthermore, to synthesize the results of ecological research for Congress, policymakers, and the general public, a new agency, called the United States Ecological Survey (USES) is urgently required. Also, a national commitment to environmental health, as exemplified by establishing a National Institutes of the Environment (NIE), should be a goal

  8. Anthropogenic Climate Change and Allergic Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hueiwang Anna Jeng

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have an impact on various aspects of health, including mucosal areas involved in allergic inflammatory disorders that include asthma, allergic rhinitis, allergic conjunctivitis and anaphylaxis. The evidence that links climate change to the exacerbation and the development of allergic disease is increasing and appears to be linked to changes in pollen seasons (duration, onset and intensity and changes in allergen content of plants and their pollen as it relates to increased sensitization, allergenicity and exacerbations of allergic airway disease. This has significant implications for air quality and for the global food supply.

  9. On Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference and Climate Change Risk (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M. E.

    2009-12-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits signatory nations (which includes all major nations including the United States) to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at levels short of Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (“ DAI”) with the climate. To properly define DAI, one must take into account issues that are not only scientific, but, economic, political, and ethical in nature. Defining DAI is furthermore complicated by the inter-generational and regionally-disaggregated nature of the risks associated with climate change. In this talk, I will explore the nature of anthropogenic climate change risks and the notion of DAI.

  10. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Gerrit Hansen

    Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced

  11. Anthropogenic Drivers of Ecosystem Change: an Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald C. Nelson

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of what the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA calls "indirect and direct drivers" of change in ecosystem services at a global level. The MA definition of a driver is any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem. A direct driver unequivocally influences ecosystem processes. An indirect driver operates more diffusely by altering one or more direct drivers. Global driving forces are categorized as demographic, economic, sociopolitical, cultural and religious, scientific and technological, and physical and biological. Drivers in all categories other than physical and biological are considered indirect. Important direct drivers include changes in climate, plant nutrient use, land conversion, and diseases and invasive species. This paper does not discuss natural drivers such as climate variability, extreme weather events, or volcanic eruptions.

  12. Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gudmundsson, L; Seneviratne, S I

    2016-01-01

    Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures. (letter)

  13. Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

    2011-07-19

    Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

  14. Measuring ecological change of aquatic macrophytes in Mediterranean rivers

    OpenAIRE

    Dodkins, Ian; Aguiar, Francisca; Rivaes, Rui; Albuquerque, António; Rodriguez-Gonzalez, Patricia; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2012-01-01

    A metric was developed for assessing anthropogenic impacts on aquatic macrophyte ecology by scoring macrophyte species along the main gradient of community change. A measure of ecological quality was then calculated by Weighted Averaging (WA) of these species scores at a monitoring site, and comparison to a reference condition score. This metric was used to illustrate the difficulties of developing aquatic macrophyte indices based on indicator species in Mediterranean rivers. The ...

  15. Attenuating initial beliefs: increasing the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change information by reflecting on values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Prooijen, Anne-Marie; Sparks, Paul

    2014-05-01

    Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self-affirmation via reflection on personally important values could attenuate the impact of initial beliefs on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change evidence. Our findings showed that initial beliefs about the human impact on ecological stability influenced the acceptance of information only among nonaffirmed participants. Self-affirmed participants who were initially resistant toward the information showed stronger beliefs in the existence of climate change risks and greater acknowledgment that individual efficacy has a role to play in reducing climate change risks than did their nonaffirmed counterparts. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew D.

    2017-11-01

    Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record breaking in a given time series is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

  17. Anthropogenic Influences on Estuarine Sedimentation and Ecology: Examples from Varved Sediments of the Pettaquanscutt River Estuary, Rhode Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estuaries and lakes are undergoing anthropogenic alterations as development and industry intensify in the modern world. Assessing the ecological health of such water bodies is difficult because accurate accounts of pre-anthropogenic estuarine/lacustrine conditions do not exist. S...

  18. Use of Anthropogenic Sea Floor Structures by Australian Fur Seals: Potential Positive Ecological Impacts of Marine Industrial Development?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P Y Arnould

    Full Text Available Human-induced changes to habitats can have deleterious effects on many species that occupy them. However, some species can adapt and even benefit from such modifications. Artificial reefs have long been used to provide habitat for invertebrate communities and promote local fish populations. With the increasing demand for energy resources within ocean systems, there has been an expansion of infrastructure in near-shore benthic environments which function as de facto artificial reefs. Little is known of their use by marine mammals. In this study, the influence of anthropogenic sea floor structures (pipelines, cable routes, wells and shipwrecks on the foraging locations of 36 adult female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus was investigated. For 9 (25% of the individuals, distance to anthropogenic sea floor structures was the most important factor in determining the location of intensive foraging activity. Whereas the influence of anthropogenic sea floor structures on foraging locations was not related to age and mass, it was positively related to flipper length/standard length (a factor which can affect manoeuvrability. A total of 26 (72% individuals tracked with GPS were recorded spending time in the vicinity of structures (from 75% of the foraging trip duration with pipelines and cable routes being the most frequented. No relationships were found between the amount of time spent frequenting anthropogenic structures and individual characteristics. More than a third (35% of animals foraging near anthropogenic sea floor structures visited more than one type of structure. These results further highlight potentially beneficial ecological outcomes of marine industrial development.

  19. Indicators of Ecological Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-03-01

    H. 1990. Strategy for monitoring the effects of land use change on atmospheric CO2 concentrations . In Proceedings of “Global Natural Resource...Working Group in Santiago , Chile , February 1995, ten nations agreed to a comprehensive set of criteria and indicators for forest conservation and...chemistry variables, the concentrations of total and inorganic suspended sediments during baseflow and storm periods were excellent indicators of

  20. Plankton food-web functioning in anthropogenically impacted coastal waters (SW Mediterranean Sea): An ecological network analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meddeb, Marouan; Grami, Boutheïna; Chaalali, Aurélie; Haraldsson, Matilda; Niquil, Nathalie; Pringault, Olivier; Sakka Hlaili, Asma

    2018-03-01

    combined with ecological indices provide a powerful approach to detect change in environmental status and anthropogenic impacts.

  1. Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.

  2. Attribution of irreversible loss to anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Bresch, David; Hansen, Gerrit; James, Rachel; Mechler, Reinhard; Stone, Dáithí; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo

    2016-04-01

    The Paris Agreement (2015) under the UNFCCC has anchored loss and damage in a separate article which specifies that understanding and support should be enhanced in areas addressing loss and damage such as early warning, preparedness, insurance and resilience. Irreversible loss is a special category under loss and damage but there is still missing clarity over what irreversible loss actually includes. Many negative impacts of climate change may be handled or mitigated by existing risk management, reduction and absorption approaches. Irreversible loss, however, is thought to be insufficiently addressed by risk management. Therefore, countries potentially or actually affected by irreversible loss are calling for other measures such as compensation, which however is highly contested in international climate policy. In Paris (2015) a decision was adopted that loss and damage as defined in the respective article of the agreement does not involve compensation and liability. Nevertheless, it is likely that some sort of mechanism will eventually need to come into play for irreversible loss due to anthropogenic climate change, which might involve compensation, other forms of non-monetary reparation, or transformation. Furthermore, climate litigation has increasingly been attempted to address negative effects of climate change. In this context, attribution is important to understand the drivers of change, what counts as irreversible loss due to climate change, and, possibly, who or what is responsible. Here we approach this issue by applying a detection and attribution perspective on irreversible loss. We first analyze detected climate change impacts as assessed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. We distinguish between irreversible loss in physical, biological and human systems, and accordingly identify the following candidates of irreversible loss in these systems: loss of glaciers and ice sheets, loss of subsurface ice (permafrost) and related loss of lake systems; loss

  3. Nuclear Renaissance in an Era of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bird, John [Bruce Power, Box 3000 B06, Tiverton, Ontario N0G 2T0 (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    This paper substantiates the anthropogenic origin of climate change, demonstrates the resulting consequences, and thereby establishes the need for a nuclear renaissance over the next thirty years. First, the mechanisms behind the natural cycles in global warming, specifically, cycles of precession and eccentricity in Earth's orbit, as measured in ice cores, are compared to the mechanisms of anthropogenic warming, revealing the scientific basis for the observed correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature. Second, the resulting climate change is exemplified by key results from experiments performed by the author in the Arctic and at the South Geographic Pole, and the author's experience of Switzerland's costliest natural catastrophe - the flash flood of 2005. Third, although facing barriers such as research and development requirements, political will and public acceptance, the potential for nuclear power to triple to 1,000 GWe by 2050 would mitigate climate change by holding carbon dioxide concentration below 500 ppm, thereby challenging the younger nuclear generation to contribute to the most important issue facing humanity. (authors)

  4. Nuclear Renaissance in an Era of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bird, John

    2008-01-01

    This paper substantiates the anthropogenic origin of climate change, demonstrates the resulting consequences, and thereby establishes the need for a nuclear renaissance over the next thirty years. First, the mechanisms behind the natural cycles in global warming, specifically, cycles of precession and eccentricity in Earth's orbit, as measured in ice cores, are compared to the mechanisms of anthropogenic warming, revealing the scientific basis for the observed correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature. Second, the resulting climate change is exemplified by key results from experiments performed by the author in the Arctic and at the South Geographic Pole, and the author's experience of Switzerland's costliest natural catastrophe - the flash flood of 2005. Third, although facing barriers such as research and development requirements, political will and public acceptance, the potential for nuclear power to triple to 1,000 GWe by 2050 would mitigate climate change by holding carbon dioxide concentration below 500 ppm, thereby challenging the younger nuclear generation to contribute to the most important issue facing humanity. (authors)

  5. Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

  6. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  7. Assessment of the effect of anthropogenic pollution on the ecology of small shallow lakes using the palaeolimnological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiiu Koff

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Palaeolimnological techniques were utilized to determine the extent of the effect of anthropogenic pollutants or other environmental stressors on three lake ecosystems over the last 200 years. The ecology of the study sites has experienced significant changes due to various activities such as (1 extensive catchment drainage and using poisoning as a fish management measure, (2 seepage of urban waste water due to establishment and growth of a town and (3 artificial inflow of oil-shale mining waters. Sediment geochemical composition, fossil pigments and Cladocera remains from the sediment cores were analysed to demonstrate that sufficient information can be derived from sediments to permit a historical reconstruction. The integrated use of archival maps, historical records and lake monitoring data confirmed links to anthropogenic pollutants, primarily on the catchment level. The examples show how the sediment indicators provide unique insights into the causes and temporal dynamics of lake ecosystem changes relevant for environmental management decisions. This study demonstrates that palaeolimnology has great potential to assist in eutrophication assessment and management efforts in waterbodies.

  8. Ecological economics and institutional change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krall, Lisi; Klitgaard, Kent

    2011-02-01

    Ecological economics remains unfinished in its effort to provide a framework for transforming the economy so that it is compatible with biophysical limits. Great strides have been made in valuing natural capital and ecosystem services and recognizing the need to limit the scale of economic activity, but the question of how to effectively transform the economy to limit the scale of economic activity remains unclear. To gain clarity about the institutional changes necessary to limit the scale of economic activity, it is essential that ecological economics understands the limitations of its neoclassical roots and expands its theoretical framework to include how markets are embedded in social and institutional structures. This has long been the domain of institutional economics and heterodox political economy. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

  9. Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Andrew D; Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Stock, Charles A

    2016-03-15

    Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951-2000) and future (2051-2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec(-1)), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec(-1) The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

  10. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.

  11. The influence of the interactions between anthropogenic activities and multiple ecological factors on land surface temperatures of urban forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Context Land surface temperatures (LSTs) spatio-temporal distribution pattern of urban forests are influenced by many ecological factors; the identification of interaction between these factors can improve simulations and predictions of spatial patterns of urban cold islands. This quantitative research requires an integrated method that combines multiple sources data with spatial statistical analysis. Objectives The purpose of this study was to clarify urban forest LST influence interaction between anthropogenic activities and multiple ecological factors using cluster analysis of hot and cold spots and Geogdetector model. We introduced the hypothesis that anthropogenic activity interacts with certain ecological factors, and their combination influences urban forests LST. We also assumed that spatio-temporal distributions of urban forest LST should be similar to those of ecological factors and can be represented quantitatively. Methods We used Jinjiang as a representative city in China as a case study. Population density was employed to represent anthropogenic activity. We built up a multi-source data (forest inventory, digital elevation models (DEM), population, and remote sensing imagery) on a unified urban scale to support urban forest LST influence interaction research. Through a combination of spatial statistical analysis results, multi-source spatial data, and Geogdetector model, the interaction mechanisms of urban forest LST were revealed. Results Although different ecological factors have different influences on forest LST, in two periods with different hot spots and cold spots, the patch area and dominant tree species were the main factors contributing to LST clustering in urban forests. The interaction between anthropogenic activity and multiple ecological factors increased LST in urban forest stands, linearly and nonlinearly. Strong interactions between elevation and dominant species were generally observed and were prevalent in either hot or cold spots

  12. Anthropogenic landforms of warfare origin and their ecological significance: the Verdun Forest, NE France

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Matos Machado, Rémi; Amat, Jean-Paul; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles; Bétard, François; Bilodeau, Clélia; Jacquemot, Stéphanie; Toumazet, Jean-Pierre

    2017-04-01

    By its unprecedented industrial character, the First World War marked landscapes like no other conflict in the world. As a result of artillery bombardment and building facilities, the relief suffered major disturbances giving rise to millions anthropogenic landforms of warfare origin on the Western front: shell craters, trenches, shelters and gun sites. This landscape made of bumps and holes that dominated the lands of West Flanders and North-eastern France during the four years of war took chaotic aspects on the great battle sites. In some areas, substrate crushing by repeated bombings resulted in a field lowering of several metres. Although these geomorphological legacies of war are still present on these scarred lands, their effects on local environment and on present-day biodiversity patterns are not fully understood. On the battlefield of Verdun, where a huge number and range of conflict-induced landforms may be observed, special attention is being paid to the ecological significance of these anthropogenic landforms in a current landscape matrix dominated by forest. In 2013, an airborne LiDAR mission conducted over the battlefield has brought to light the relief inherited from the fighting that was until now concealed by the Verdun forest planted in the 1930's. Through a digital terrain model (DTM) with centimetre level accuracy, it is now possible to observe the smallest traces of the fighting. A first programmatic mapping work allowed to inventory and to locate these reliefs on the whole 10,000 hectares covered by the DTM. Also, the calculation of their geometry enabled us to quantify the erosion rate due to the military activities on the battlefield. On the basis of these morphometric measurements, a typology was developed to better appreciate the morphological diversity of conflict-induced landforms. The results show that these anthropogenic landforms are generally hollow. Because of this particular morphology, the conflict-induced landforms provide

  13. Anthropogenic habitat disturbance and ecological divergence between incipient species of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamdem, Colince; Tene Fossog, Billy; Simard, Frédéric; Etouna, Joachim; Ndo, Cyrille; Kengne, Pierre; Boussès, Philippe; Etoa, François-Xavier; Awono-Ambene, Parfait; Fontenille, Didier; Antonio-Nkondjio, Christophe; Besansky, Nora J; Costantini, Carlo

    2012-01-01

    Anthropogenic habitat disturbance is a prime cause in the current trend of the Earth's reduction in biodiversity. Here we show that the human footprint on the Central African rainforest, which is resulting in deforestation and growth of densely populated urban agglomerates, is associated to ecological divergence and cryptic speciation leading to adaptive radiation within the major malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae. In southern Cameroon, the frequency of two molecular forms--M and S--among which reproductive isolation is strong but still incomplete, was correlated to an index of urbanisation extracted from remotely sensed data, expressed as the proportion of built-up surface in each sampling unit. The two forms markedly segregated along an urbanisation gradient forming a bimodal cline of ∼6-km width: the S form was exclusive to the rural habitat, whereas only the M form was present in the core of densely urbanised settings, co-occurring at times in the same polluted larval habitats of the southern house mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus--a species association that was not historically recorded before. Our results indicate that when humans create novel habitats and ecological heterogeneities, they can provide evolutionary opportunities for rapid adaptive niche shifts associated with lineage divergence, whose consequences upon malaria transmission might be significant.

  14. Ecological consequences of anthropogenic pressure in Wari-Maro Forest Reserve (Benin, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aubin Guénolé Amagnide

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study assessed ecological consequences of anthropogenic pressure on Wari-Maro Forest Reserve (WMFR. The dynamics of forest cover has been assessed using a diachronic analysis of land cover maps from the Landsat satellite images of 1986, 1995 and 2006. Structural patterns of the forest has been described using forest inventory data with twenty five 1ha plots having two 50 m x 30 m plots set up inside and positioned at the opposite corners of the leading diagonal within each 1 ha plot. Established plots allowed identifying the most targeted species in illegal logging. Plots of 0.15 ha established inside each 1 ha plot helped assessing the volume of trees from which we derived carbon stock and carbon loss using conversion and expansion factors. For the two periods 1986 to 1995 and 1995 to 2006, there was a decline in forest cover which slowed down in the second decade (0.196 %.year-1 and 0.083 %.year-1 respectively. The two vegetation types of the WMFR were mainly distinguished by Lorey's mean height (12.81 m in woodland and 12.44 m in tree-savannah. Top five targeted species in illegal logging activities were: Pterocarpus erinaceus Poir., Afzelia africana Sm., Isoberlinia spp., Anogeissus leiocarpa Guill. and Daniellia oliveri (Rolfe Hutch. & Dalziel. Results also showed mean values of carbon stock and carbon losses for the whole forest of 147.84 tons C.ha-1 and 17.57 tons C.ha-1 respectively and did not depend on vegetation type. Results from this study suggest that management strategies should focus on selectively logged species. Monitoring should also be enhanced to ensure conservation of resources of the reserve which are at high risks of extinction due to selective logging rates. Keywords: anthropogenic pressure, forest cover, structure, carbon stock, Wari-Maro forest reserve, Benin.

  15. Coastal sediment elevation change following anthropogenic mangrove clearing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayden, Heather L.; Granek, Elise F.

    2015-11-01

    Coastal mangrove forests along tropical shorelines serve as an important interface between land and sea. They provide a physical buffer protecting the coastline from erosion and act as sediment "traps" catching terrestrial sediment, thus preventing smothering of subtidal coral reefs. Coastal development that removes mangrove habitat may impact adjacent nearshore coral reefs through sedimentation and nutrient loading. We examined differences in sediment elevation change between patches of open-coast intact and anthropogenically cleared red mangroves (Rhizophora mangle) on the east side of Turneffe Atoll, Belize, to quantify changes following mangrove clearing. Samples were collected over a 24 month period at five study sites, each containing paired intact (+mangrove) and cleared (-mangrove) plots. Five sediment elevation pins were deployed in each plot: behind areas cleared of mangroves (-mangrove) and behind adjacent intact mangroves (+mangrove). Sediment elevation increased at intact mangrove sites (M = +3.83 mm, SE = 0.95) whereas cleared mangrove areas suffered elevation loss (M = -7.30 mm, SE = 3.38). Mangroves inshore of partial or continuous gaps in the adjacent fringing reefs had higher rates of elevation loss (M = -15.05 mm) than mangroves inshore of continuous fringing reefs (M = -1.90 mm). Our findings provide information on potential effects of mangrove clearing and the role of offshore habitat characteristics on coastal sediment trapping and maintenance of sediment elevation by mangroves. With implications for coastline capacity to adjust to sea level rise, these findings are relevant to management of coastal fringing mangrove forests across the Caribbean.

  16. Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, Lennart

    1999-01-01

    The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

  17. Island biogeography and landscape structure: Integrating ecological concepts in a landscape perspective of anthropogenic impacts in temporary wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angeler, David G.; Alvarez-Cobelas, Miguel

    2005-01-01

    Although our understanding of environmental risk assessment in temporary wetlands has been improved by the use of multi-species toxicity testing, we still know little of how landscape variables mediate the strength of, and recovery from, anthropogenic stress in such ecosystems. To bridge this research gap, we provide a theoretical framework of the response of temporary wetlands to anthropogenic disturbance along a habitat-isolation continuum based on island biogeography theory, landscape ecology and dispersal and colonization strategies of temporary wetland organisms. - Environmental risk assessment in temporary wetlands may benefit from consideration of island biogeography theory and landscape structure

  18. Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaver, T.L.; Clark, C.M.; Compton, J.E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C.P.; Band, L.E.; Baron, Jill S.; Davidson, E.A.; Tague, C.L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J.A.; Herrick, J.D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C.L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

  19. Impact of anthropogenic activities on the dissemination of antibiotic resistance across ecological boundaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Vijay; Cytryn, Eddie

    2017-02-28

    Antibiotics are considered to be one of the major medical breakthroughs in history. Nonetheless, over the past four decades, antibiotic resistance has reached alarming levels worldwide and this trend is expected to continue to increase, leading some experts to forecast the coming of a 'post-antibiotic' era. Although antibiotic resistance in pathogens is traditionally linked to clinical environments, there is a rising concern that the global propagation of antibiotic resistance is also associated with environmental reservoirs that are linked to anthropogenic activities such as animal husbandry, agronomic practices and wastewater treatment. It is hypothesized that the emergence and dissemination of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) and antibiotic-resistant genes (ARGs) within and between environmental microbial communities can ultimately contribute to the acquisition of antibiotic resistance in human pathogens. Nonetheless, the scope of this phenomenon is not clear due to the complexity of microbial communities in the environment and methodological constraints that limit comprehensive in situ evaluation of microbial genomes. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge regarding antibiotic resistance in non-clinical environments, specifically focusing on the dissemination of antibiotic resistance across ecological boundaries and the contribution of this phenomenon to global antibiotic resistance. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Portland Press Limited on behalf of the Biochemical Society.

  20. Middle School Students' Understandings About Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, B. W.

    2013-12-01

    they discussed the validation of their beliefs. That is, we argue that the unit, and the emphases contained within the unit, resulted in the "epistemic scaffolding" of their ideas, to the extent that they shifted from arguing from anecdotes to arguing based on other types of data, especially from line graphs. Additionally, we found that students' understandings of climate change were tied to their ontological constructions of the subject matter, i.e., many perceived climate change as just another environmentally sensitive issue such as littering and pollution, and were therefore limited in their ability to understand anthropogenic climate change in the vast and robust sense meant by current scientific consensus. Given these known difficulties, it is critical to explore further research of this sort in order to better understand what students are actually thinking, and how that thinking is prone to change, modification, or not. Subsequently, K-12 strategies might be better designed, if that is indeed a priority of US/Western society.

  1. Ecological economics and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier-Rigaud, G.

    1991-09-01

    What is the subject of ecology? What is the primary concern of economics? How can the interface between ecology and economics be described? Is there a relationship between the two different sciences which constitutes a new research field? This book raises some of these basic questions and reflects on major misleading assumptions research in ecological economics unwittingly relies on. An outlook is given as to the aspects on which research in this field should now primarily concentrate. This publication addresses first of all natural scientists and politicians, though economists, too, might find some new aspects apart from traditional economic reasoning. (orig./KW)

  2. Changes of Bulgarian Coastal Dune Landscape under Anthropogenic Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazov, A.; Young, R.; Stancheva, M.; Stanchev, H.

    2012-04-01

    At one time large sand dune formations were widely distributed along the Bulgarian coast. However, due to increased urbanization in the coastal zone, the areas of total dune landscape has been constantly reduced. Dunes presently comprise only 10% of the entire 412 km long coastline of Bulgaria: they embrace a total length of 38.57 km and a total area of 8.78 km2 Important tasks in dune protection are identification of landscape changes for a certain period of time and accurate delineation of sand dune areas. The present research traces sand dune changes along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast over a 27 year period (1983-2010). This period includes also the time of expanded tourist boom and overbuilding of the coastal zone, and respectively presents the largest dune changes and reductions. Based on the landscape change analyst in GIS environment the study also aims to explore the importance of different natural and human factors in driving the observed dune alterations and destruction. To detect and assess dune changes during the last 3 decades, we used data for sand dunes derived from several sources at different time periods in order to compare changes in shoreline positions, dune contours and areas: i) Topographic maps in 1:5,000 scale from 1983; ii) Modern Very High Resolution orthophotographs from 2006 and 2010; iii) QuickBird Very High Resolution satellite images from 2009; iv) Statistical information for population and tourist infrastructure is also used to consider the influence of human pressure and hotel developments on the dune dynamics. In addition, for more detailed description and visualization of main dune types, digital photos have been taken at many parts of the Bulgarian coast. The study was performed in GIS environment. Based on the results obtained the dunes along the Bulgarian coast were divided into three main groups with relation to the general factors responsible for their alterations: i) Dunes that have decreased in result of shoreline retreat

  3. Economic impacts of marine ecological change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bartelings, Heleen; Börger, Tobias; Bosello, Francesco; Buisman, Erik; Delpiazzo, Elisa; Eboli, Fabio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hamon, Katell G.; Hattam, Caroline; Loureiro, Maria; Nunes, Paulo A.L.D.; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Schasfoort, Femke E.; Simons, Sarah L.; Walker, Adam N.

    2018-01-01

    Marine ecological change is likely to have serious potential economic consequences for coastal economies all over the world. This article reviews the current literature on the economic impacts of marine ecological change, as well as a number of recent contributions to this literature carried out

  4. Environmental and ecological changes associated with a marina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivero, Natalie K; Dafforn, Katherine A; Coleman, Melinda A; Johnston, Emma L

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic modifications to waterways are common and their ecological consequences must be understood to effectively conserve local biodiversity. The facilitation of recreational boating activities often requires substantial alteration of natural areas, however the environmental and ecological consequences of such alterations are rarely described in the scientific literature. In this study, ecological and physico-chemical conditions were investigated in a recreational boating marina, located inside a marine park on the south-east coast of Australia. Recruitment panels were deployed for 8 weeks both inside and outside the marina, and differences in the composition of the developing fouling communities were observed. The recruitment of taxa, which often have short-lived larvae, was increased inside the marina (bryozoans, spirorbids and sponges) while the recruitment of taxa, which often have longer-lived larvae, was reduced or absent (barnacles, solitary ascidians and non-spirorbid polychaetes). Differences were also observed in environmental conditions inside the marina cf. directly outside. The marina environment had higher turbidity, temperature and pH along with higher concentrations of lead and copper in suspended sediments, while flow rates and trapped sediment loads were reduced inside the marina. The differences observed in the study suggest that there may be marked environmental changes associated with marina developments. The potential ecological consequences of these changes should be a primary consideration during the planning process, particularly for developments in locations of notable ecological value.

  5. Fishers’ local knowledge on impact of climate change and anthropogenic interferences on Hilsa fishery in South Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jahan, Israt; Ahsan, Dewan; Farque, Md Hasan

    2017-01-01

    fishers’ perceptions on effect of climate change and anthropogenic impact on Hilsa fishery at lower Meghna. Fishers’ ecological knowledge indicates that the stock of Hilsa is declining due to several adverse climatic conditions such as increased water temperature, salinity intrusion and low freshwater....... The study also indicates that the major constraints to adopt with the change situation are low level of human capital and restricted access to the formal credit system. Therefore, incorporation of local knowledge in governmental policy formulation and public support to improve human skill are essential...

  6. Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nian-Zhi Jiao

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of China seas and coasts are undergoing rapid changes under the strong influences of both global climate change and anthropogenic activities. To understand the scope of these changes and the mechanisms behind them is of paramount importance for the sustainable development of China, and for the establishment of national policies on environment protection and climate change mitigation. Here we provide a brief review of the impacts of global climate change and human activities on the oceans in general, and on the ecosystems of China seas and coasts in particular. More importantly, we discuss the challenges we are facing and propose several research foci for China seas/coasts ecosystem studies, including long-term time series observations on multiple scales, facilities for simulation study, blue carbon, coastal ecological security, prediction of ecosystem evolution and ecosystem-based management. We also establish a link to the Future Earth program from the perspectives of two newly formed national alliances, the China Future Ocean Alliance and the Pan-China Ocean Carbon Alliance.

  7. Ecological responses to recent climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walther, Gian-Reto [Hannover Univ., Inst. of Geobotany, Hannover (Germany); Post, Eric [Pennsylvania State Univ., Dept. of Biology, University Park, PA (United States); Convey, Peter [British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Menzel, Annette [Technical Univ. Munich, Dept. of Ecology, Freising (Germany); Parmesan, Camille [Texas Univ., Patterson Labs., Integrative Biology Dept., Austin, TX (United States); Beebee, Trevor J.C. [Sussex Univ., School of Biological Sciences, Brighton (United Kingdom); Fromentin, Jean-Marc [IFREMER, Centre Halieutique Mediterraneen et Tropical, Sete, 34 (France); Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove [Queensland Univ., Centre for Marine Studies, St Lucia, QLD (Australia); Bairlein, Franz [Institute for Avian Research ' Vogelwarte Helgoland' , Wilhelmshaven (Germany)

    2002-03-28

    There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organisational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible. (Author)

  8. Climate change and ecological public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Benny

    2015-02-17

    Climate change has been identified as a serious threat to human health, associated with the sustainability of current practices and lifestyles. Nurses should expand their health promotion role to address current and emerging threats to health from climate change and to address ecological public health. This article briefly outlines climate change and the concept of ecological public health, and discusses a 2012 review of the role of the nurse in health promotion.

  9. Understanding the Impact of Anthropogenic and Environmental Changes on Dengue Fever Cases in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Serman, E. A.; Couret, J.; Puggioni, G.; Ginsberg, H. S.

    2016-12-01

    Worldwide, there are an estimated 50-100 million cases of dengue fever each year, roughly 30 times the number of cases as 50 years ago. Dengue was introduced to Puerto Rico (PR) in 1963 and it has experienced epidemic activity ever since. There have been 4 large epidemics since 1990, the most recent in 2010 where almost 27,000 cases were reported. Vaccine development remains in the testing stages, and years away from mass distribution. Effective control thus depends on our understanding of the complex relationships between environmental and anthropogenic factors, mosquito vector ecology, and disease epidemiology. Dengue virus is primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which also carry the Zika virus, and humans in urban environments are their preferred hosts. The purpose of our analysis is to identify trends between anthropogenic and environmental changes and dengue fever cases in PR over the past 15 years. Data on housing and population density, percent impervious surface, and percent tree canopy at the municipality level were procured from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (MLRC) project, respectively. Land cover data from the National Land Cover Database, created by USGS and NOAA, as well as environmental data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), were also used. Smaller land cover and green space analysis studies have been performed for PR, but this is the first study to consider the island as a whole, and in six distinct regions, with regards to increases in dengue fever cases. The results from this study can be used to understand the effects of urbanization and climate change on vector-borne disease transmission in PR and to project the impact of growing sub-urban and urban areas on dengue cases in coming years. Our results could also be used to assess Dengue and Zika transmission in growing megacites of the world, where urban slums provide a favorable habitat for Ae. aegypti and foster

  10. Assessment of the influence of anthropogenic factors on elements of the ecological network in Vojvodina (Serbia using the Leopold matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kicošev Vesna

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Salt steppes and marshes represent the most valuable ecosystems in the world, providing numerous ecosystem services that are extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic influences. These types of habitat in the territory of Serbia are most dominant in Banat and a significant portion of them is under protection or in the process of becoming protected. The section surrounding the protected areas of Slano Kopovo Special Nature Reserve, Rusanda Nature Park and Okanj Bara Special Nature Reserve with the non-building area of Novi Bečej, Kumane, Melenci, Elemir and Taraš cadastral municipalities, has been chosen for the analysis. The aim of this paper was to assess the influence of specific anthropogenic factors on the elements of an ecological network using the analytical method that can generate the required results in a manner suitable for presentation to various stakeholders. To achieve this aim, the Leopold matrix model, used for assessing anthropogenic influence on the environment, has been chosen. The specificity of this issue of protecting and preserving elements of an ecological network resulted in the need to isolate and evaluate the factors affecting the preservation of habitats and functionality of ecosystems, unlike the concept of Leopold matrix, which treats all factors as equally important in the process of evaluation. Evaluation results indicate significant effects of historical, perennial manner of using the area and other resources in the non-building area.

  11. Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Case Study Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenbath, Thien-Kim Leckie

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation shows the evolution of five undergraduate students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change throughout a lecture hall course on climate change. This research was informed by conceptual change theory and students' inaccurate ideas of climate change. Subjects represented different levels of climate change understanding at…

  12. Ecological status and sources of anthropogenic contaminants in mangroves of the Wouri River Estuary (Cameroon)

    KAUST Repository

    Fusi, Marco

    2016-07-07

    Mangroves are critically threatened by human activities, despite the important ecosystem functions and services they provide. Mangroves in Cameroon represent no exception to the worldwide trend of mangrove destruction, especially around Douala, on the Wouri river estuary. In two sites around Douala, we assessed the presence of sterols, PAHs, PCBs, DEHP, DDT and its metabolite p,p\\'-DDE and potentially toxic metals in sediment samples. As a proxy of ecological quality, we measured the diversity and abundance of macrobenthos assemblages. We detected p,p\\'-DDE contamination, with concentrations higher than 3μgkg-1 in 16 out of 26 samples which were attributed to recent widespread use of DDT. The detection of sterols revealed faecal contamination. Significant sensitivity of the macrobenthos to contaminants was revealed, with possible implications on the overall mangrove vulnerability to climate change and on the provision of ecosystem services to local populations. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Ecological status and sources of anthropogenic contaminants in mangroves of the Wouri River Estuary (Cameroon).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusi, Marco; Beone, Gian Maria; Suciu, Nicoleta Alina; Sacchi, Angela; Trevisan, Marco; Capri, Ettore; Daffonchio, Daniele; Din, Ndongo; Dahdouh-Guebas, Farid; Cannicci, Stefano

    2016-08-30

    Mangroves are critically threatened by human activities, despite the important ecosystem functions and services they provide. Mangroves in Cameroon represent no exception to the worldwide trend of mangrove destruction, especially around Douala, on the Wouri river estuary. In two sites around Douala, we assessed the presence of sterols, PAHs, PCBs, DEHP, DDT and its metabolite p,p'-DDE and potentially toxic metals in sediment samples. As a proxy of ecological quality, we measured the diversity and abundance of macrobenthos assemblages. We detected p,p'-DDE contamination, with concentrations higher than 3μgkg(-1) in 16 out of 26 samples which were attributed to recent widespread use of DDT. The detection of sterols revealed faecal contamination. Significant sensitivity of the macrobenthos to contaminants was revealed, with possible implications on the overall mangrove vulnerability to climate change and on the provision of ecosystem services to local populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abatzoglou, John T; Williams, A Park

    2016-10-18

    Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

  15. Evaluation of anthropogenic influence in probabilistic forecasting of coastal change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, C. J.; Wilson, K.; Adams, P. N.

    2014-12-01

    Prediction of large scale coastal behavior is especially challenging in areas of pervasive human activity. Many coastal zones on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts are moderately to highly modified through the use of soft sediment and hard stabilization techniques. These practices have the potential to alter sediment transport and availability, as well as reshape the beach profile, ultimately transforming the natural evolution of the coastal system. We present the results of a series of probabilistic models, designed to predict the observed geomorphic response to high wave events at Fire Island, New York. The island comprises a variety of land use types, including inhabited communities with modified beaches, where beach nourishment and artificial dune construction (scraping) occur, unmodified zones, and protected national seashore. This variation in land use presents an opportunity for comparison of model accuracy across highly modified and rarely modified stretches of coastline. Eight models with basic and expanded structures were developed, resulting in sixteen models, informed with observational data from Fire Island. The basic model type does not include anthropogenic modification. The expanded model includes records of nourishment and scraping, designed to quantify the improved accuracy when anthropogenic activity is represented. Modification was included as frequency of occurrence divided by the time since the most recent event, to distinguish between recent and historic events. All but one model reported improved predictive accuracy from the basic to expanded form. The addition of nourishment and scraping parameters resulted in a maximum reduction in predictive error of 36%. The seven improved models reported an average 23% reduction in error. These results indicate that it is advantageous to incorporate the human forcing into a coastal hazards probability model framework.

  16. REFLECTION OF THE THEME OF THE ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE VORKUTA REGION OF THE KOMI REPUBLIC IN THE RUSSIAN ECOLOGICAL ATLAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. I. Markova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Pechora coal basin is a second reserve of coal and lignite basins in Russia after Kuznetsk. Vorkuta industrial region (VIR, located north of the Arctic Circle, mastered since 1931. Coal mining closed method is produced in five mines. The depth of mining is 298 m. It is deeper than in the Kuznetsk coal basin. Since 2000, opencast mining is making in the Yunyaginsky mine. Field elaboration for more than 80 years has spawned a number of environmental problems specific to the area of coal mining. There are: the formation of anthropogenic landforms, emissions of the dust, heavy metals, the passing methane in the air, waters and soils, reduction and disappearance of aboriginal species of animals and plants. These problems are compounded by harsh natural conditions of Russian North, by special vulnerability of the environment in the tundra zone (subzone of southern shrub tundra. The map of Vorkuta industrial region was making for Ecological Atlas of Russia among other maps of impact areas with very poor ecological situation. The map in the scale 1:200 000 was produced with using of space images and literature data. It include: sources of anthropogenic impacts on the environment (coal mines, enrichment factory, sumps, enterprises of other industry branch, populated localities, roads and different changes in the environment. Anthropogenic forms of relief, a dust content in the air on excess of maximum allowable concentrations, a content of microelements in the air, soils and rock mine dumps, an area of pollution of the cement factory, a polluted piece of the river Vorkuta and a fish productivity of separate pieces of the river Vorkuta are shown on the map by signs and diagrams. Diagrams of the number of species of regional fauna of birds (on natural and changed areas and diagrams of relation of valuable and weed species of fish on different river pieces were built outside the map.

  17. Bayesian change-point analyses in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian Bekcage; Lawrence Joseph; Patrick Belisle; David B. Wolfson; William J. Platt

    2007-01-01

    Ecological and biological processes can change from one state to another once a threshold has been crossed in space or time. Threshold responses to incremental changes in underlying variables can characterize diverse processes from climate change to the desertification of arid lands from overgrazing.

  18. Interactive effects of anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change and Nr from anthropogenic activities are causing some of the most rapid changes in biodiversity in recent times. Climate change is causing warming trends that result in poleward and elevational range shiftsof flora and fauna, and changes in phenology, particularly ...

  19. Florida Bay: A history of recent ecological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fourqurean, J.W.; Robblee, M.B.

    1999-01-01

    Florida Bay is a unique subtropical estuary at the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. Recent ecological changes (seagrass die-off, algal blooms, increased turbidity) to the Florida Bay ecosystem have focused the attention of the public, commercial interests, scientists, and resource managers on the factors influencing the structure and function of Florida Bay. Restoring Florida Bay to some historic condition is the goal of resource managers, but what is not clear is what an anthropogenically-unaltered Florida Bay would look like. While there is general consensus that human activities have contributed to the changes occurring in the Florida Bay ecosystem, a high degree of natural system variability has made elucidation of the links between human activity and Florida Bay dynamics difficult. Paleoecological analyses, examination of long-term datasets, and directed measurements of aspects of the ecology of Florida Bay all contribute to our understanding of the behavior of the bay, and allow quantification of the magnitude of the recent ecological changes with respect to historical variability of the system.

  20. Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

    2014-06-01

    When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Individual and Interactive Influences of Anthropogenic and Ecological Factors on Forest PM2.5 Concentrations at an Urban Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoliang Yun

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Integration of Landsat images and multisource data using spatial statistical analysis and geographical detector models can reveal the individual and interactive influences of anthropogenic activities and ecological factors on concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5. This approach has been used in many studies to estimate biomass and forest disturbance patterns and to monitor carbon sinks. However, the approach has rarely been used to comprehensively analyze the individual and interactive influences of anthropogenic factors (e.g., population density, impervious surface percentage and ecological factors (e.g., canopy density, stand age, and elevation on PM2.5 concentrations. To do this, we used Landsat-8 images and meteorological data to retrieve quantitative data on the concentrations of particulates (PM2.5, then integrated a forest management planning inventory (FMPI, population density distribution data, meteorological data, and topographic data in a Geographic Information System database, and applied a spatial statistical analysis model to identify aggregated areas (hot spots and cold spots of particulates in the urban area of Jinjiang city, China. A geographical detector model was used to analyze the individual and interactive influences of anthropogenic and ecological factors on PM2.5 concentrations. We found that particulate concentration hot spots are mainly distributed in urban centers and suburbs, while cold spots are mainly distributed in the suburbs and exurban region. Elevation was the dominant individual factor affecting PM2.5 concentrations, followed by dominant tree species and meteorological factors. A combination of human activities (e.g., population density, impervious surface percentage and multiple ecological factors caused the dominant interactive effects, resulting in increased PM2.5 concentrations. Our study suggests that human activities and multiple ecological factors

  2. An ecological perspective on U.S. industrial poultry production: the role of anthropogenic ecosystems on the emergence of drug-resistant bacteria from agricultural environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Meghan F; Price, Lance B; Liu, Cindy Meng-Hsin; Silbergeld, Ellen K

    2011-06-01

    The industrialization of food animal production, specifically the widespread use of antimicrobials, not only increased pressure on microbial populations, but also changed the ecosystems in which antimicrobials and bacteria interact. In this review, we argue that industrial food animal production (IFAP) is appropriately defined as an anthropogenic ecosystem. This paper uses an ecosystem perspective to frame an examination of these changes in the context of U.S. broiler chicken production. This perspective emphasizes multiple modes by which IFAP has altered microbiomes and also suggests a means of generating hypotheses for understanding and predicting the ecological impacts of IFAP in terms of the resistome and the flow of resistance within and between microbiomes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Anthropogenic Climate Change in Undergraduate Marine and Environmental Science Programs in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlietstra, Lucy S.; Mrakovcich, Karina L.; Futch, Victoria C.; Stutzman, Brooke S.

    2016-01-01

    To develop a context for program-level design decisions pertaining to anthropogenic climate change, the authors studied the prevalence of courses focused on human-induced climate change in undergraduate marine science and environmental science degree programs in the United States. Of the 86 institutions and 125 programs the authors examined, 37%…

  4. An ecological process model of systems change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peirson, Leslea J; Boydell, Katherine M; Ferguson, H Bruce; Ferris, Lorraine E

    2011-06-01

    In June 2007 the American Journal of Community Psychology published a special issue focused on theories, methods and interventions for systems change which included calls from the editors and authors for theoretical advancement in this field. We propose a conceptual model of systems change that integrates familiar and fundamental community psychology principles (succession, interdependence, cycling of resources, adaptation) and accentuates a process orientation. To situate our framework we offer a definition of systems change and a brief review of the ecological perspective and principles. The Ecological Process Model of Systems Change is depicted, described and applied to a case example of policy driven systems level change in publicly funded social programs. We conclude by identifying salient implications for thinking and action which flow from the Model.

  5. Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers' joint construction of climate perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asplund, Therese

    2016-07-01

    While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change. © The Author(s) 2014.

  6. Estimating anthropogenic ecological water stress in the US great lakes region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropocentric water resources management that prioritizes socio-economic growth can cause harmful ecological water stress by depriving aquatic ecosystems of the water needed to sustain habitats. It is important to better understand the impacts of water withdrawal by different economic sectors (e.g...

  7. Soil Landscape Pattern Changes in Response to Rural Anthropogenic Activity across Tiaoxi Watershed, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Rui; Jiang, Diwei; Christakos, George; Fei, Xufeng; Wu, Jiaping

    2016-01-01

    Soil sealing (loss of soil resources due to extensive land covering for the purpose of house building, road construction etc.) and subsequent soil landscape pattern changes constitute typical environmental problems in many places worldwide. Previous studies concentrated on soil sealing in urbanized regions, whereas rural areas have not been given sufficient attention. Accordingly, this paper studies soil landscape pattern dynamics (i.e., landscape pattern changes in response to rural anthropogenic activities) in the Tiaoxi watershed (Zhejiang province, eastern China), in which surface sealing is by far the predominant component of human forcing with respect to environmental change. A novel approach of quantifying the impacts of rural anthropogenic activities on soil resources is presented. Specifically, quantitative relationships were derived between five soil landscape pattern metrics (patch density, edge density, shape index, Shannon’s diversity index and aggregation index) and three rural anthropogenic activity indicators (anthropogenic activity intensity, distance to towns, and distance to roads) at two landscape block scales (3 and 5 km) between 1985 and 2010. The results showed that the Tiaoxi watershed experienced extensive rural settlement expansion and high rates of soil sealing. Soil landscapes became more fragmented, more irregular, more isolated, and less diverse. Relationships between soil landscape pattern changes and rural anthropogenic activities differed with the scale (spatial and temporal) and variable considered. In particular, the anthropogenic activity intensity was found to be the most important indicator explaining social development intensity, whereas the other two proximity indicators had a significant impact at certain temporal interval. In combination with scale effects, spatial dependency (correlation) was shown to play a key role that should be carefully taken into consideration in any relevant environmental study. Overall, the

  8. U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

    2009-02-01

    We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

  9. A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittig, Rüdiger; König, Konstantin; Schmidt, Marco; Szarzynski, Jörg

    2007-05-01

    During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the

  10. Long-term Increases in Flower Production by Growth Forms in Response to Anthropogenic Change in a Tropical Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pau, S.; Wright, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    There is mounting evidence that anthropogenic global change is altering the ecology of tropical forests. A limited number of studies have focused on long-term trends in tropical reproductive activity, yet differences in reproductive activity should have consequences for demography and ultimately forest carbon, water, and energy balance. Here we analyze a 28-year record of tropical flower production in response to anthropogenic climate change. We show that a multi-decadal increase in flower production is most strongly driven by rising atmospheric CO2, which had approximately 8x the effect of the Multivariate ENSO Index and approximately 13x the effect of rainfall or solar radiation. Interannual peaks in flower production were associated with greater solar radiation and low rainfall during El Niño years. Observed changes in solar radiation explained flower production better than rainfall (models including solar radiation accounted for 94% of cumulative AICc weight compared to 87% for rainfall). All growth forms (lianas, canopy trees, midstory trees, and shrubs) produced more flowers with increasing CO2 except for understory treelets. The increase in flower production was matched by a lengthening of flowering duration for canopy trees and midstory trees; duration was also longer for understory treelets. Given that anthropogenic CO2 emissions will continue to climb over the next century, the long-term increase in flower production may persist unless offset by increasing cloudiness in the tropics, or until rising CO2 and/or warming temperatures associated with the greenhouse effect pass critical thresholds for plant reproduction.

  11. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Scott M; Suski, Jamie G; Salice, Christopher J

    2010-12-01

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weir, Scott M.; Suski, Jamie G.; Salice, Christopher J.

    2010-01-01

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. - Avian receptors are not universally appropriate surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment.

  13. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, Scott M., E-mail: scott.weir@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States); Suski, Jamie G., E-mail: jamie.suski@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Department of Biological Sciences, Box 43131, Lubbock, TX (United States); Salice, Christopher J., E-mail: chris.salice@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States)

    2010-12-15

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. - Avian receptors are not universally appropriate surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment.

  14. University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

    2017-01-01

    This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching.…

  15. Attenuating initial beliefs: Increasing the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change information by reflecting on values

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Prooijen, A.M.; Sparks, P.

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self-affirmation via reflection on personally important values

  16. The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

    2016-01-01

    A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models,…

  17. Natural and anthropogenic drivers of cultural change on Easter Island: Review and new insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rull, Valentí

    2016-10-01

    Easter Island (Rapa Nui) is a remote Pacific island known for its megalithic statues, the moai, built by an ancient culture which disappearance is still debated. Theories claiming for either self-destruction (ecocide) of this ancient culture or an eventual genocide after the European contact have been the most popular. Anthropogenic drivers have been traditionally preferred as causes of this major cultural shift, whereas climatic changes have been dismissed or underrated. However, the latest findings suggest that the topic is more complex than formerly thought and demand a more holistic perspective. This paper reviews the main paleoclimatic, paleoecological, archaeological and historical evidence of the major Rapanui cultural shift leading to the end of the moai-building civilization and uses an integrated approach to analyze its timing and potential causes. The disappearance of the ancient Eastern Island culture that erected the moai was a dramatic cultural shift with significant changes in lifestyle, socio-political organization, religious performance, art and also in the geographical settlement of the cultural core of the Rapanui society. The ancient society, represented by the so called Ancient Cult (or moai cult) was centered on the Rano Raraku crater, to the east of the island, whose soft volcanic rocks (tuff) where suitable for moai carving. This society was replaced by the Birdman-Cult society, based on Rano Kao, to the westernmost end of the island. The assumed date for such shift is uncertain ranging between mid-16th and late-18th centuries. It is suggested that such geographical change, as well as the associated societal transformations, may have been the result of a combination of climatic, ecological and cultural drivers and events. The latest paleoecological reconstructions show that the Rano Raraku catchment was deforested by AD 1450 and the lake inside dried out by AD 1550 owing to an intense climatic drought. This would have caused a landscape

  18. Emergence of acute/subacute infant-juvenile paracoccidioidomycosis in Northeast Argentina: Effect of climatic and anthropogenic changes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giusiano, Gustavo; Aguirre, Clarisa; Vratnica, Claudia; Rojas, Florencia; Corallo, Teresa; Cattana, María Emilia; Fernández, Mariana; Mussin, Javier; de Los Angeles Sosa, María

    2018-01-13

    Argentina has two endemic areas of paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM). Bordering Paraguay and Brazil, Northeast Argentina (NEA) comprises the area with the highest incidence where the chronic adult clinical form has historically been reported. Juvenile form in children and adolescents is rare in this area since only one case was reported in the last 10 years. Despite this, between 2010 and 2012, several cases of acute/subacute clinical forms in children aged 10 to 16 (median 12) were detected. In the last decade, the NEA region has been exposed to ecological variations as consequences of certain climatic and anthropogenic changes, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon during 2009, and deforestation. The region has also suffered from the significant ecological effects of the construction of one of the biggest hydroelectric dams of South America. This study aims to describe clinical and epidemiological aspects of acute/subacute PCM cases detected in children from NEA and to discuss climatic and anthropogenic changes as possible contributing factors in the emergence of this disease in children. This acute/subacute PCM cluster was characterized by severe disseminated and aggressive presentations to localized form, with a high spectrum of clinical manifestations uncommonly observed. Due to the lack of experience in acute/subacute PCM in children in the studied area and the atypical clinical manifestations observed, the diagnosis was delayed. In order to avoid misdiagnosis, a higher level of suspicion is now required in NEA and countries bordering the southern part of the endemic area, which are affected by the changes discussed in this article. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The International Society for Human and Animal Mycology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Changes in anthropogenic carbon storage in the Northeast Pacific in the last decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Sophie N.; Wang, Zhaohui Aleck; Doney, Scott C.; Lawson, Gareth L.; Hoering, Katherine A.

    2016-07-01

    In order to understand the ocean's role as a sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), it is important to quantify changes in the amount of anthropogenic CO2 stored in the ocean interior over time. From August to September 2012, an ocean acidification cruise was conducted along a portion of the P17N transect (50°N 150°W to 33.5°N 135°W) in the Northeast Pacific. These measurements are compared with data from the previous occupation of this transect in 2001 to estimate the change in the anthropogenic CO2 inventory in the Northeast Pacific using an extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) approach. Maximum increases in the surface waters were 11 µmol kg-1 over 11 years near 50°N. Here, the penetration depth of anthropogenic CO2 only reached ˜300 m depth, whereas at 33.5°N, penetration depth reached ˜600 m. The average increase of the depth-integrated anthropogenic carbon inventory was 0.41 ± 0.12 mol m-2 yr-1 across the transect. Lower values down to 0.20 mol m-2 yr-1 were observed in the northern part of the transect near 50°N and increased up to 0.55 mol m-2 yr-1 toward 33.5°N. This increase in anthropogenic carbon in the upper ocean resulted in an average pH decrease of 0.002 ± 0.0003 pH units yr-1 and a 1.8 ± 0.4 m yr-1 shoaling rate of the aragonite saturation horizon. An average increase in apparent oxygen utilization of 13.4 ± 15.5 µmol kg-1 centered on isopycnal surface 26.6 kg m-3 from 2001 to 2012 was also observed.

  20. Anthropogenic changes in sodium affect neural and muscle development in butterflies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snell-Rood, Emilie C.; Espeset, Anne; Boser, Christopher J.; White, William A.; Smykalski, Rhea

    2014-01-01

    The development of organisms is changing drastically because of anthropogenic changes in once-limited nutrients. Although the importance of changing macronutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, is well-established, it is less clear how anthropogenic changes in micronutrients will affect organismal development, potentially changing dynamics of selection. We use butterflies as a study system to test whether changes in sodium availability due to road salt runoff have significant effects on the development of sodium-limited traits, such as neural and muscle tissue. We first document how road salt runoff can elevate sodium concentrations in the tissue of some plant groups by 1.5–30 times. Using monarch butterflies reared on roadside- and prairie-collected milkweed, we then show that road salt runoff can result in increased muscle mass (in males) and neural investment (in females). Finally, we use an artificial diet manipulation in cabbage white butterflies to show that variation in sodium chloride per se positively affects male flight muscle and female brain size. Variation in sodium not only has different effects depending on sex, but also can have opposing effects on the same tissue: across both species, males increase investment in flight muscle with increasing sodium, whereas females show the opposite pattern. Taken together, our results show that anthropogenic changes in sodium availability can affect the development of traits in roadside-feeding herbivores. This research suggests that changing micronutrient availability could alter selection on foraging behavior for some roadside-developing invertebrates. PMID:24927579

  1. Anthropogenic changes in sodium affect neural and muscle development in butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snell-Rood, Emilie C; Espeset, Anne; Boser, Christopher J; White, William A; Smykalski, Rhea

    2014-07-15

    The development of organisms is changing drastically because of anthropogenic changes in once-limited nutrients. Although the importance of changing macronutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, is well-established, it is less clear how anthropogenic changes in micronutrients will affect organismal development, potentially changing dynamics of selection. We use butterflies as a study system to test whether changes in sodium availability due to road salt runoff have significant effects on the development of sodium-limited traits, such as neural and muscle tissue. We first document how road salt runoff can elevate sodium concentrations in the tissue of some plant groups by 1.5-30 times. Using monarch butterflies reared on roadside- and prairie-collected milkweed, we then show that road salt runoff can result in increased muscle mass (in males) and neural investment (in females). Finally, we use an artificial diet manipulation in cabbage white butterflies to show that variation in sodium chloride per se positively affects male flight muscle and female brain size. Variation in sodium not only has different effects depending on sex, but also can have opposing effects on the same tissue: across both species, males increase investment in flight muscle with increasing sodium, whereas females show the opposite pattern. Taken together, our results show that anthropogenic changes in sodium availability can affect the development of traits in roadside-feeding herbivores. This research suggests that changing micronutrient availability could alter selection on foraging behavior for some roadside-developing invertebrates.

  2. Quantifying Anthropogenic Dust Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Nicholas P.; Pierre, Caroline

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic land use and land cover change, including local environmental disturbances, moderate rates of wind-driven soil erosion and dust emission. These human-dust cycle interactions impact ecosystems and agricultural production, air quality, human health, biogeochemical cycles, and climate. While the impacts of land use activities and land management on aeolian processes can be profound, the interactions are often complex and assessments of anthropogenic dust loads at all scales remain highly uncertain. Here, we critically review the drivers of anthropogenic dust emission and current evaluation approaches. We then identify and describe opportunities to: (1) develop new conceptual frameworks and interdisciplinary approaches that draw on ecological state-and-transition models to improve the accuracy and relevance of assessments of anthropogenic dust emissions; (2) improve model fidelity and capacity for change detection to quantify anthropogenic impacts on aeolian processes; and (3) enhance field research and monitoring networks to support dust model applications to evaluate the impacts of disturbance processes on local to global-scale wind erosion and dust emissions.

  3. Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato

    2008-02-05

    The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO(2) and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO(2) but from the combination of CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years.

  4. Interplay of anthropogenic and natural disturbance impacts on the hyporheic ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, N.; Brancelj, A.; Simčič, T.; Lukančič, S.

    2009-04-01

    The hyporheic invertebrate community from the pre-alpine river (W Slovenia) was studied in order to analyze the impacts of high discharge and in-stream gravel extraction. Two distinct river reaches were sampled from June 2004 to May 2005. At impacted site, where gravel extraction was carried out, the response of hyporheic community to the anthropogenic disturbance was studied. Physical and chemical parameters, together with the amounts organic matter and activity of the biofilm were measured. Invertebrates were sampled by Bou-Rouch pumping method. Discharge of the Bača River varied from 108 m3s-1 in October 2004 to 1.6 m3s-1 in March 2005. Streambed sediments at both sites were composed of heterogeneous mixture of boulders, cobbles, pebbles, gravel, sand and silt. Oxygen saturation was close to 100 %, indicating good sediment permeability. A total of 75 invertebrate taxa were identified, 40 of which belonged to the occasional hyporheos, 26 to the permanent hyporheos and 9 were stygobites. At both sites, fauna was dominated numerically by juveniles of Cyclopoida and early stages of Leuctra larvae (Plecoptera). Chironomidae (Diptera) contributed significantly to the total invertebrate density at reference site and Baetoidea (Ephemeroptera) to the total density at impacted site. At both sites a decrease in density occurred immediately after disturbance. The recovery was relatively fast (two and a half months). The CCA analysis revealed the importance of fine sediment amounts for hyporheic invertebrate distribution. The results indicated that discharge play an important role in shaping hyporheic invertebrate community in the Bača River and that the removal of sediments due to gravel extraction led to the impoverishment of the structural characteristics of the hyporheic community.

  5. Time for a change: dynamic urban ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalho, Cristina E; Hobbs, Richard J

    2012-03-01

    Contemporary cities are expanding rapidly in a spatially complex, non-linear manner. However, this form of expansion is rarely taken into account in the way that urbanization is classically assessed in ecological studies. An explicit consideration of the temporal dynamics, although frequently missing, is crucial in order to understand the effects of urbanization on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in rapidly urbanizing landscapes. In particular, a temporal perspective highlights the importance of land-use legacies and transient dynamics in the response of biodiversity to environmental change. Here, we outline the essential elements of an emerging framework for urban ecology that incorporates the characteristics of contemporary urbanization and thus empowers ecologists to understand and intervene in the planning and management of cities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul John Beggs

    Full Text Available The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.

  7. Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

    2010-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

  8. Concentrating anthropogenic disturbance to balance ecological and economic values: applications to forest management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tittler, Rebecca; Messier, Christian; Fall, Andrew

    2012-06-01

    To maintain healthy ecosystems, natural-disturbance-based management aims to minimize differences between unmanaged and managed landscapes. Two related approaches may help accomplish this goal, either applied together or in isolation: (1) concentrating anthropogenic disturbance through zoning (with protected areas and intensive management); and (2) emulating natural disturbances. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of these two approaches, applied both in isolation and in combination, on the structure of the forest landscape. To do so, we use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model on a large fire-dominated landscape in eastern Canada. Specifically, we examine the effects of (1) increasing the maximum size of logged stands (cutblocks) to better emulate the full range of fire sizes in a fire-dominated landscape, (2) increasing protected areas, and (3) adding aggregated or dispersed intensive wood production areas to the landscape in addition to protected areas (triad management). We focus on maximizing the amount and minimizing the fragmentation of old-growth forest and on reducing road construction. Increasing maximum cutblock size and adding protected areas led to reduced road construction, while the latter also resulted in less fragmentation and more old growth. Although protected areas led to reduced harvest volume, the addition of an intensive production zone (triad management) counterbalanced this loss and resulted in more old growth than equivalent scenarios with protected areas but no intensive production zone. However, we found no differences between aggregated and dispersed intensive wood production. Our results imply that differences between unmanaged and managed landscapes can be reduced by concentrating logging efforts through a combination of protected areas and intensive wood production, and by creating some larger cutblocks. We conclude that the forest industry and regulators should therefore seek to increase protected areas

  9. Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, J.; Lopez, A.; Huntingford, C.; Allen, M. R.

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to test the robustness of the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change using four different empirical models that were previously developed to explain the observed global mean temperature changes over the last few decades. These studies postulated that the main drivers of these changes included not only the usual natural forcings, such as solar and volcanic, and anthropogenic forcings, such as greenhouse gases and sulfates, but also other known Earth system oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In this paper, we consider these signals, or forced responses, and test whether or not the anthropogenic signal can be robustly detected under different assumptions for the internal variability of the climate system. We assume that the internal variability of the global mean surface temperature can be described by simple stochastic models that explore a wide range of plausible temporal autocorrelations, ranging from short memory processes exemplified by an AR(1) model to long memory processes, represented by a fractional differenced model. In all instances, we conclude that human-induced changes to atmospheric gas composition is affecting global mean surface temperature changes. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  10. Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, J.

    2013-04-27

    This paper aims to test the robustness of the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change using four different empirical models that were previously developed to explain the observed global mean temperature changes over the last few decades. These studies postulated that the main drivers of these changes included not only the usual natural forcings, such as solar and volcanic, and anthropogenic forcings, such as greenhouse gases and sulfates, but also other known Earth system oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In this paper, we consider these signals, or forced responses, and test whether or not the anthropogenic signal can be robustly detected under different assumptions for the internal variability of the climate system. We assume that the internal variability of the global mean surface temperature can be described by simple stochastic models that explore a wide range of plausible temporal autocorrelations, ranging from short memory processes exemplified by an AR(1) model to long memory processes, represented by a fractional differenced model. In all instances, we conclude that human-induced changes to atmospheric gas composition is affecting global mean surface temperature changes. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  11. On a dhole trail: examining ecological and anthropogenic correlates of dhole habitat occupancy in the Western ghats of India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arjun Srivathsa

    Full Text Available Although they play a critical role in shaping ecological communities, many threatened predator species are data-deficient. The Dhole Cuon alpinus is one such rare canid with a global population thought to be <2500 wild individuals. We assessed habitat occupancy patterns of dholes in the Western Ghats of Karnataka, India, to understand ecological and anthropogenic determinants of their distribution and habitat-use. We conducted spatially replicated detection/non-detection surveys of dhole signs along forest trails at two appropriate scales: the entire landscape and a single wildlife reserve. Landscape-scale habitat occupancy was assessed across 38,728 km(2 surveying 206 grid cells of 188-km(2 each. Finer scale habitat-use within 935 km2 Bandipur Reserve was studied surveying 92 grid cells of 13-km(2 km each. We analyzed the resulting data of dhole signs using likelihood-based habitat occupancy models. The models explicitly addressed the problematic issue of imperfect detection of dhole signs during field surveys as well as potential spatial auto-correlation between sign detections made on adjacent trail segments. We show that traditional 'presence versus absence' analyses underestimated dhole habitat occupancy by 60% or 8682 km2 [naïve = 0.27; ψL(SE  = 0.68 (0.08] in the landscape. Addressing imperfect sign detections by estimating detection probabilities [p(t(L (SE = 0.12 (0.11] was critical for reliable estimation. Similar underestimation occurred while estimating habitat-use probability at reserve-scale [naïve = 0.39; Ψs(SE = 0.71 (0.06]. At landscape scale, relative abundance of principal ungulate prey primarily influenced dhole habitat occupancy. Habitat-use within a reserve, however, was predominantly and negatively influenced by anthropogenic disturbance. Our results are the first rigorous assessment of dhole occupancy at multiple spatial scales with potential conservation value. The approach used in this study has potential

  12. New ecology, global change, and forest politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampson, N.

    1993-01-01

    Ecosystems constantly change. Some changes are caused by natural conditions that evolve at a very slow pace including climate change, species evolution and migration, and soil formation. Forests don't always respond to gradual changes in gradual ways, though gradual change may be hidden for years within the normal variation in the ecosystem. The industrial age has resulted in a rapid and continuing buildup of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons which trap heat in the greenhouse effect. Industrial processes also emit oxides of nitrogen and sulfur that change atmospheric chemistry and alter the nutrient input into ecosystems. Natural forests face a hard time adjusting to a rate of climatic change that is 3 to 10 times faster than species can migrate and that increases the occurrence of major windstorms. In the forest ecosystem where trees are removed or destroyed under rapid climatic change, conditions may not return to their original state, even if we try to restore it. When the ecosystem changes faster than the bureaucracy of the management agency, a serious problem exists. New understandings of ecology and global change may force new ways of thinking in these situations

  13. Anthropogenic Changes in Mid-latitude Storm and Blocking Activities from Observations and Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.

    2017-12-01

    Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change can be most readily detected in the high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere, where temperature has been rising faster than the rest of the globe and sea ice cover has shrunk dramatically over recent decades. Reducing the meridional temperature gradient, this amplified warming over the high latitudes influences weather in the middle latitudes by modulating the jet stream, storms, and atmospheric blocking activities. Whether observational records have revealed significant changes in mid-latitude storms and blocking activities, however, has remained a subject of much debate. Buried deep in strong year-to-year variations, the long-term dynamic responses of the atmosphere are more difficult to identify, compared with its thermodynamic responses. Variabilities of decadal and longer timescales further obscure any trends diagnosed from satellite observations, which are often shorter than 40 years. Here, new metrics reflecting storm and blocking activities are developed using surface air temperature and pressure records, and their variations and long-term trends are examined. This approach gives an inkling of the changes in storm and blocking activities since the Industrial Revolution in regions with abundant long-term observational records, e.g. Europe and North America. The relationship between Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and variations in storm and blocking activities across the Atlantic is also scrutinized. The connection between observed centennial trends and anthropogenic forcings is investigated using a hierarchy of numerical tools, from highly idealized to fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Pre-industrial control simulations and a set of large ensemble simulations forced by increased CO2 are analyzed to evaluate the range of natural variabilities, which paves the way to singling out significant anthropogenic changes from observational records, as well as predicting future changes in mid-latitude storm and

  14. Functional changes in littoral macroinvertebrate communities in response to watershed-level anthropogenic stress.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katya E Kovalenko

    Full Text Available Watershed-scale anthropogenic stressors have profound effects on aquatic communities. Although several functional traits of stream macroinvertebrates change predictably in response to land development and urbanization, little is known about macroinvertebrate functional responses in lakes. We assessed functional community structure, functional diversity (Rao's quadratic entropy and voltinism in macroinvertebrate communities sampled across the full gradient of anthropogenic stress in Laurentian Great Lakes coastal wetlands. Functional diversity and voltinism significantly decreased with increasing development, whereas agriculture had smaller or non-significant effects. Functional community structure was affected by watershed-scale development, as demonstrated by an ordination analysis followed by regression. Because functional community structure affects energy flow and ecosystem function, and functional diversity is known to have important implications for ecosystem resilience to further environmental change, these results highlight the necessity of finding ways to remediate or at least ameliorate these effects.

  15. Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midgley, Guy F.; Bond, William J.

    2015-09-01

    Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.

  16. Detecting the anthropogenic influences on recent changes in ocean carbon uptake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seferian, Roland; Ribes, Aurelien; Bopp, Laurent

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have modified the rate at which oceans have absorbed atmospheric CO 2 over the last centuries through rising atmospheric CO 2 and modifications in climate. However, there are still missing pieces in our understanding of the recent evolution of air-sea CO 2 exchanges related to the magnitude of their response to anthropogenic forcing versus that controlled by the internal variability. Here, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on oceanic CO 2 uptake between 1960 and 2005, we compare an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations forced by individual drivers to ocean-only model reconstructions. We demonstrate that the evolution of the global oceanic carbon sink over the last decades can be understood without invoking climate change, attributing rising atmospheric CO 2 as prominent driver of the oceanic sink. Nonetheless, at regional scale, the influence of climate change on air-sea CO 2 exchanges seems to emerge from the internal variability within the low-latitude oceans. (authors)

  17. The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vallis, Geoffrey K. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2015-01-30

    The project had two main components. The first concerns estimating the climate sensitivity in the presence of forcing uncertainty and natural variability. Climate sensitivity is the increase in the average surface temperature for a given increase in greenhouse gases, for example a doubling of carbon dioxide. We have provided new, probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity using a simple climate model an the observed warming in the 20th century, in conjunction with ideas in data assimilation and parameter estimation developed in the engineering community. The estimates combine the uncertainty in the anthropogenic aerosols with the uncertainty arising because of natural variability. The second component concerns how the atmospheric circulation itself might change with anthropogenic global warming. We have shown that GCMs robustly predict an increase in the length scale of eddies, and we have also explored the dynamical mechanisms whereby there might be a shift in the latitude of the jet stream associated with anthropogenic warming. Such shifts in the jet might cause large changes in regional climate, potentially larger than the globally-averaged signal itself. We have also shown that the tropopause robustly increases in height with global warming, and that the Hadley Cell expands, and that the expansion of the Hadley Cell is correlated with the polewards movement of the mid-latitude jet.

  18. World-wide anthropogenic climate changes: facts, uncertainties and open questions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenwiese, C.D.

    1994-01-01

    Various human activities are, without a doubt, leading to a steady increase world-wide in the emissions of trace gases which affect the climate into the atmosphere. As a result, the global climate is also forced to change. The evidence from climate models regarding this is uncertain, however, both with respect to the quantitative aspect and the regional aspect, especially concerning climatic elements apart from temperature. It is therefore important to examine the data of climate history for anthropogenic climate signals. It is difficult, though, to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic climate effects. Despite these uncertainties, however, which result in many questions remaining open, estimations of risk and the principle of responsibility lead to immediate, international climate protection measures being demanded. (orig.) [de

  19. Biological diversity, ecology and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jutro, P.R.

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat they may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results

  20. National parks, ecological integrity and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopoukhine, N.

    1990-01-01

    The potential impacts of climate change on the national parks of Canada are discussed. There is a requirement to protect and manage national parks to maintain a functioning ecosystem with all its parts and processes. An active management regime is necessary, with objectives of ecological diversity/integrity clearly stated. The national parks located in the Canadian Prairie provinces are on or near transitions from forest to tundra and grasslands, and are likely to exhibit the most dramatic changes. The change in vegetation of such parks and in others will not manifest itself simply as a shift of zones but will be accompanied by a flora with new dominants. The boreal forest within the Prairie provinces is fire dependent and has the potential of being transformed into remnant units should post-fire germination be hampered by climatic change. A rapid change in climate would render national parks unable to provide protection of representative elements of Canada's landscapes as presently known. A threefold increase in the area dedicated to protection is a basic component of the sustainable development prescription. All government and private lands dedicated to protection should be forged into a network, to provide core protection for immigrating and emigrating communities and individual species displaced by a changing climate. 20 refs., 2 figs

  1. Multidecadal change in streamflow associated with anthropogenic disturbances in the tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

    2015-10-01

    Andean headwater catchments are an important source of freshwater for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes in these catchments. In this paper, we assess change in streamflow based on long time series of hydrometeorological data (1974-2008) and land cover reconstructions (1963-2009) in the Pangor catchment (282 km2) located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished during the period 1963-2009: (1) expansion of agricultural land by an area equal to 14 % of the catchment area (or 39 km2) in 46 years' time, (2) deforestation of native forests by 11 % (or -31 km2) corresponding to a mean rate of 67 ha yr-1, and (3) afforestation with exotic species in recent years by about 5 % (or 15 km2). Over the time period 1963-2009, about 50 % of the 64 km2 of native forests was cleared and converted to agricultural land. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow, which exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term change in precipitation but very likely result from anthropogenic disturbances associated with land cover change.

  2. Simple but accurate GCM-free approach for quantifying anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.

    2014-12-01

    We are so used to analysing the climate with the help of giant computer models (GCM's) that it is easy to get the impression that they are indispensable. Yet anthropogenic warming is so large (roughly 0.9oC) that it turns out that it is straightforward to quantify it with more empirically based methodologies that can be readily understood by the layperson. The key is to use the CO2 forcing as a linear surrogate for all the anthropogenic effects from 1880 to the present (implicitly including all effects due to Greenhouse Gases, aerosols and land use changes). To a good approximation, double the economic activity, double the effects. The relationship between the forcing and global mean temperature is extremely linear as can be seen graphically and understood without fancy statistics, [Lovejoy, 2014a] (see the attached figure and http://www.physics.mcgill.ca/~gang/Lovejoy.htm). To an excellent approximation, the deviations from the linear forcing - temperature relation can be interpreted as the natural variability. For example, this direct - yet accurate approach makes it graphically obvious that the "pause" or "hiatus" in the warming since 1998 is simply a natural cooling event that has roughly offset the anthropogenic warming [Lovejoy, 2014b]. Rather than trying to prove that the warming is anthropogenic, with a little extra work (and some nonlinear geophysics theory and pre-industrial multiproxies) we can disprove the competing theory that it is natural. This approach leads to the estimate that the probability of the industrial scale warming being a giant natural fluctuation is ≈0.1%: it can be dismissed. This destroys the last climate skeptic argument - that the models are wrong and the warming is natural. It finally allows for a closure of the debate. In this talk we argue that this new, direct, simple, intuitive approach provides an indispensable tool for communicating - and convincing - the public of both the reality and the amplitude of anthropogenic warming

  3. Alternate Directed Anthropogenic Shifts in Genotype Result in Different Ecological Outcomes in Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch Fry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosalind A Leggatt

    Full Text Available Domesticated and growth hormone (GH transgenic salmon provide an interesting model to compare effects of selected versus engineered phenotypic change on relative fitness in an ecological context. Phenotype in domestication is altered via polygenic selection of traits over multiple generations, whereas in transgenesis is altered by a single locus in one generation. These established and emerging technologies both result in elevated growth rates in culture, and are associated with similar secondary effects such as increased foraging, decreased predator avoidance, and similar endocrine and gene expression profiles. As such, there is concern regarding ecological consequences should fish that have been genetically altered escape to natural ecosystems. To determine if the type of genetic change influences fitness components associated with ecological success outside of the culture environments they were produced for, we examined growth and survival of domesticated, transgenic, and wild-type coho salmon fry under different environmental conditions. In simple conditions (i.e. culture with unlimited food, transgenic fish had the greatest growth, while in naturalized stream tanks (limited natural food, with or without predators domesticated fish had greatest growth and survival of the three fish groups. As such, the largest growth in culture conditions may not translate to the greatest ecological effects in natural conditions, and shifts in phenotype over multiple rather than one loci may result in greater success in a wider range of conditions. These differences may arise from very different historical opportunities of transgenic and domesticated strains to select for multiple growth pathways or counter-select against negative secondary changes arising from elevated capacity for growth, with domesticated fish potentially obtaining or retaining adaptive responses to multiple environmental conditions not yet acquired in recently generated transgenic

  4. Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crompton, Ryan P; McAneney, K John; Pielke, Roger A Jr

    2011-01-01

    Recent reviews have concluded that efforts to date have yet to detect or attribute an anthropogenic climate change influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone (of at least tropical storm strength) behaviour and concomitant damage. However, the possibility of identifying such influence in the future cannot be ruled out. Using projections of future tropical cyclone activity from a recent prominent study we estimate the time that it would take for anthropogenic signals to emerge in a time series of normalized US tropical cyclone losses. Depending on the global climate model(s) underpinning the projection, emergence timescales range between 120 and 550 years, reflecting a large uncertainty. It takes 260 years for an 18-model ensemble-based signal to emerge. Consequently, under the projections examined here, the detection or attribution of an anthropogenic signal in tropical cyclone loss data is extremely unlikely to occur over periods of several decades (and even longer). This caution extends more generally to global weather-related natural disaster losses.

  5. Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Raquel A; West, J Jason; Zhang Yuqiang; Anenberg, Susan C; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T; Faluvegi, Greg; Collins, William J; Dalsoren, Stig; Skeie, Ragnhild; Folberth, Gerd; Rumbold, Steven; Horowitz, Larry W; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene

    2013-01-01

    Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM 2.5 -related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr −1 due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM 2.5 . The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality. (letter)

  6. Climatic changes and anthropogenic pollution as evidenced by two Alpine lacustrine records, Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevenon, Florian; Poté, John; Guédron, Stéphane; Adatte, Thierry; Chiaradia, Massimo; Loizeau, Jean-Luc; Spangenberg, Jorge; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

    2010-05-01

    This study aims to provide high-resolution records of climatic changes and human impacts on two different Alpine environments: Lake Lucerne is a large (114 km2) lake located at 434 m asl in Central Switzerland, whereas Meidsee is a small (industrial history and the last millennia were sampled with a resolution of 1 cm, and investigated for organic (13δC, 15δN, C/N) and/or inorganic (δ13C, δ18O) matter contents, and elemental composition (REE compositions, trace elements, and heavy metals). Both sites exhibit 1) rapid hydrological changes related to variations in winter precipitations, and 2) increases in atmospheric pollution due to human activities. Lead enrichment factors combined to changes in lead isotopic composition (206Pb/207Pb ratio) are used to distinguish natural from anthropogenic sources. The greatest mercury and lead atmospheric emissions occurred during the twentieth century, resulting from the extensive combustion of fossil coal and petroleum in Europe. Although the highest heavy metals fluxes are synchronous with major anthropogenic changes (e.g. Roman mining, industrial revolution), proxies show that in absence of such events, the heavy metals deposition in the sedimentary records is primarily influenced by sedimentological processes linked to climate variations (i.e. runoff and erosion processes).

  7. Celtic field agriculture and Early Anthropogenic Environmental change in soil records of the Meuse-Demer-Scheldt region, NW Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Sanden, Germaine; Kluiving, Sjoerd; Roymans, Nico

    2017-04-01

    Archaeological research is fundamental in the process of obtaining a greater understanding on the intricate dynamics between the human species and the 'natural' environment. Deep historical processes can evaluate the complex interactions that eventually led to the human species as the dominating agent, in terms of the Earth's biotic and abiotic processes. Regional landscape studies can determine whether the human species can be evaluated as a formative element in soil formation processes during the Holocene. This study is directed to examine early anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) in the Meuse-Demer-Scheldt region, in the southern Netherlands and northern Belgium, between the Late Bronze Age and Early Roman Period (1050-200 AD). The introduction of an extensive agricultural system, the Celtic field system, in co-relation with demographic rise, led to increased anthropogenic pressure on the MDS landscape. Throughout the Holocene, demographic rise pressured farmers to develop increasingly efficient and innovative methods of extracting more yields per unit area farmed resulting in a decrease in land use per capita over time (Kaplan et al. 2010; Boserup, 1965,1981)). The land use per capita under Celtic field technology was relatively high compared to contemporary numbers, based on the assumption that land use per capita did not remain constant. The MDS region is a clear example of early Holocene ALCC and modification of terrestrial ecosystems due to excessive clearance of vegetation. Early Holocene ALCC resulted in ecological deficiencies in the landscape, e.g. deforestation, acceleration of podzolisation and a decrease in terrestrial carbon storage as well as water retention capacity. ALCC can impact climate through biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the atmosphere, and result in regional negative radiative forcing. Here we hypothesize that the previously presumed fundamental restructuring that led to a structural bipartition in the landscape due to

  8. Features of anthropogenic changes in river hydrological parameters (for example Samara river.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovganenko D.A.

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Conducted attempt to analyze the nature of the mechanism of action of anthropogenic factors (in this case, mine water discharge to replace the water regime g. Samara. With typical river hydrographs built for the periods from 1952 to 1962 and from 1963 to 1975, revealed the instability of the spring floods, increased average long-term water consumption and increase the share of underground runoff. Approximately set the starting point changes the water regime of the river and found an association between increasing water inflow of mine water and increase average water discharge of Samara.

  9. NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhaofei; Wu, Shengjun; Chen, Jilong; Lü, Mingquan

    2017-01-01

    Natural and social environmental changes in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) have received worldwide attention. Identifying interannual changes in vegetation activities in the TGRR is an important task for assessing the impact these changes have on the local ecosystem. We used long-term (1982-2011) satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and climatic and anthropogenic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in the TGRR, as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), downward radiation (RAD), and anthropogenic activities. At the whole TGRR regional scale, a statistically significant overall uptrend in NDVI variations was observed in 1982-2011. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends split by a breakpoint in 1991: NDVI first sharply increased prior to 1991, and then showed a relatively weak rate of increase after 1991. At the pixel scale, most parts of the TGRR experienced increasing NDVI before the 1990s but different trend change types after the 1990s: trends were positive in forests in the northeastern parts, but negative in farmland in southwest parts of the TGRR. The TEM warming trend was the main climate-related driver of uptrending NDVI variations pre-1990s, and decreasing PRE was the main climate factor (42%) influencing the mid-western farmland areas' NDVI variations post-1990s. We also found that anthropogenic factors such as population density, man-made ecological restoration, and urbanization have notable impacts on the TGRR's NDVI variations. For example, large overall trend slopes in NDVI were more likely to appear in TGRR regions with large fractions of ecological restoration within the last two decades. The findings of this study may help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of NDVI variations in the periods before and during TGDP construction for ongoing ecosystem monitoring and assessment in the

  10. Impact of anthropogenic and natural environmental changes on Echinococcus transmission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the People's Republic of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yu Rong; Clements, Archie C A; Gray, Darren J; Atkinson, Jo-An M; Williams, Gail M; Barnes, Tamsin S; McManus, Donald P

    2012-07-24

    Echinococcus transmission is known to be affected by various environmental factors, which may be modified by human influence or natural events including global warming. Considerable population growth in the last fifty years in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), the People's Republic of China (PRC), has led to dramatic increases in deforestation and modified agricultural practices. In turn, this has resulted in many changes in the habitats for the definitive and intermediate hosts of both Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, which have increased the risks for transmission of both parasites, affecting echinococcosis prevalence and human disease. Ecological environmental changes due to anthropogenic activities and natural events drive Echinococcus transmission and NHAR provides a notable example illustrating how human activity can impact on a parasitic infection of major public health significance. It is very important to continually monitor these environmental (including climatic) factors that drive the distribution of Echinococcus spp. and their impact on transmission to humans because such information is necessary to formulate reliable future public health policy for echinococcosis control programs and to prevent disease spread.

  11. Changing expression of vertebrate immunity genes in an anthropogenic environment: a controlled experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hablützel, Pascal I; Brown, Martha; Friberg, Ida M; Jackson, Joseph A

    2016-09-01

    The effect of anthropogenic environments on the function of the vertebrate immune system is a problem of general importance. For example, it relates to the increasing rates of immunologically-based disease in modern human populations and to the desirability of identifying optimal immune function in domesticated animals. Despite this importance, our present understanding is compromised by a deficit of experimental studies that make adequately matched comparisons between wild and captive vertebrates. We transferred post-larval fishes (three-spined sticklebacks), collected in the wild, to an anthropogenic (captive) environment. We then monitored, over 11 months, how the systemic expression of immunity genes changed in comparison to cohort-matched wild individuals in the originator population (total n = 299). We found that a range of innate (lyz, defbl2, il1r-like, tbk1) and adaptive (cd8a, igmh) immunity genes were up-regulated in captivity, accompanied by an increase in expression of the antioxidant enzyme, gpx4a. For some genes previously known to show seasonality in the wild, this appeared to be reduced in captive fishes. Captive fishes tended to express immunity genes, including igzh, foxp3b, lyz, defbl2, and il1r-like, more variably. Furthermore, although gene co-expression patterns (analyzed through gene-by-gene correlations and mutual information theory based networks) shared common structure in wild and captive fishes, there was also significant divergence. For one gene in particular, defbl2, high expression was associated with adverse health outcomes in captive fishes. Taken together, these results demonstrate widespread regulatory changes in the immune system in captive populations, and that the expression of immunity genes is more constrained in the wild. An increase in constitutive systemic immune activity, such as we observed here, may alter the risk of immunopathology and contribute to variance in health in vertebrate populations exposed to

  12. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, B.; Liou, K. N.; He, C.; Lee, W. L.; Gu, Y.; Li, Q.; Leung, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols affect regional climate significantly through radiative (direct and semi-direct) and indirect effects, but the magnitude of these effects over megacities are subject to large uncertainty. In this study, we evaluated the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China using the online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry Model (WRF/Chem) with the Fu-Liou-Gu radiation scheme and a spatial resolution of 4km. We further updated this radiation scheme with a geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) approach for the computation of light absorption and scattering by black carbon (BC) particles in which aggregation shape and internal mixing properties are accounted for. In addition, we incorporated in WRF/Chem a 3D radiative transfer parameterization in conjunction with high-resolution digital data for city buildings and landscape to improve the simulation of boundary-layer, surface solar fluxes and associated sensible/latent heat fluxes. Preliminary simulated meteorological parameters, fine particles (PM2.5) and their chemical components agree well with observational data in terms of both magnitude and spatio-temporal variations. The effects of anthropogenic aerosols, including BC, on radiative forcing, surface temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud water path, and precipitation are quantified on the basis of simulation results. With several preliminary sensitivity runs, we found that meteorological parameters and aerosol radiative effects simulated with the incorporation of improved BC absorption and 3-D radiation parameterizations deviate substantially from simulation results using the conventional homogeneous/core-shell configuration for BC and the plane-parallel model for radiative transfer. Understanding of the aerosol effects on regional climate change over megacities must consider the complex shape and mixing state of aerosol aggregates and 3D radiative transfer effects over city landscape.

  13. Fire Data as Proxy for Anthropogenic Landscape Change in the Yucatán

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Millones

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Fire is one of the earliest and most common tools used by humans to modify the earth surface. Landscapes in the Yucatán Peninsula are composed of a mosaic of old growth subtropical forest, secondary vegetation, grasslands, and agricultural land that represent a well-documented example of anthropogenic intervention, much of which involves the use of fire. This research characterizes land use systems and land cover changes in the Yucatán during the 2000–2010 time period. We used an active fire remotely sensed data time series from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, in combination with forest loss, and anthrome map sources to (1 establish the association between fire and land use change in the region; and (2 explore links between the spatial and temporal patterns of fire and specific types of land use practices, including within- and between-anthromes variability. A spatial multinomial logit model was constructed using fire, landscape configuration, and a set of commonly used control variables to estimate forest persistence, non-forest persistence, and change. Cross-tabulations and descriptive statistics were used to explore the relationships between fire occurrence, location, and timing with respect to the geography of land use. We also compared fire frequencies within and between anthrome groups using a negative binomial model and Tukey pairwise comparisons. Results show that fire data broadly reproduce the geography and timing of anthropogenic land change. Findings indicate that fire and landscape configuration is useful in explaining forest change and non-forest persistence, especially in fragmented (mosaicked landscapes. Absence of fire occurrence is related usefully to the persistence of spatially continuous core areas of older growth forest. Fire has a positive relationship with forest to non-forest change and a negative relationship with forest persistence. Fire is also a good indicator to distinguish between

  14. Ecology and Evolution: Islands of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benz, Richard

    This book was designed for middle and junior high school science classes and focuses on island biogeography, ecology, and evolution. Sections include: (1) "Galapagos: Frame of Reference"; (2) "Ecology and Islands"; and (3) "Evolution." Nineteen standards-based activities use the Galapagos Islands as a running theme…

  15. Influence of Holocene environmental change and anthropogenic impact on the diversity and distribution of roe deer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, K H; Hoelzel, A R

    2014-06-01

    Extant patterns of population structure and levels of diversity are a consequence of factors that vary in both space and time. Our objective in this study is to investigate a species that has responded to both natural and anthropogenic changes in ways that have shaped modern populations and provide insight into the key processes. The roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) is one of the two species of deer native to Britain. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), the British habitat was largely under ice and there was a land bridge to mainland Europe. As the Earth warmed during the early Holocene, the land bridge was lost. Subsequent hunting on the British mainland left the southern region extirpated of roe deer, whereas a refugial population remained in the north. Later reintroductions from Europe led to population expansion, especially in southern United Kingdom. Here, we combine data from ancient and modern DNA to track population dynamics and patterns of connectivity, and test hypotheses about the influence of natural and anthropogenic environmental change. We find that past expansion and divergence events coincided with a warming environment and the subsequent closure of the land bridge between Europe and the United Kingdom. We also find turnover in British roe deer haplotypes between the late-Holocene and modern day that have likely resulted from recent human disturbance activities such as habitat perturbation, overhunting and restocking.

  16. [Dynamic changes of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Fujian Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Boqi; Wang, Yixiang; Huang, Yibin; Ying, Zhaoyang; Huang, Qinlou

    2006-11-01

    The analysis on the dynamic changes of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Fujian Province showed that in 1999-2003, the ecological footprint per capita in the Province increased from 1.428 hm2 to 1.658 hm2, while the ecological capacity per capita decreased from 0.683 hm2 to 0.607 hm2, with an increased ecological deficit year after year. The contradiction between the ecological footprint and ecological capacity pricked up gradually, and the ecological environment was at risk. There existed a severe imbalance in the supply and demand of ecological footprint per capita. The main body of the demands was grassland and fossil fuel, accouting for 55.74% - 63.43% of the total, while their supply only occupied 0.77% - 0.82% and next to nothing of the ecological capacity per capita, respectively. As a whole, the ecological footprint per ten thousand yuan GDP declined in the five years, indicating that the resources use efficiency in the Province was improved gradually. Based on the analysis of the present situation of the economic development and resources distribution in the Province, the strategies on reducing ecological deficit were put forward.

  17. Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Y

    2018-08-15

    The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km 2 between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km 2 /yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area

  18. Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunderson, Alex R; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H

    2017-07-01

    A major focus of current ecological research is to understand how global change makes species vulnerable to extirpation. To date, mechanistic ecophysiological analyses of global change vulnerability have focused primarily on the direct effects of changing abiotic conditions on whole-organism physiological traits, such as metabolic rate, locomotor performance, cardiac function, and critical thermal limits. However, species do not live in isolation within their physical environments, and direct effects of climate change are likely to be compounded by indirect effects that result from altered interactions with other species, such as competitors and predators. The Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology 2017 Symposium "Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences" was designed to synthesize multiple approaches to investigating the indirect effects of global change by bringing together researchers that study the indirect effects of global change from multiple perspectives across habitat, type of anthropogenic change, and level of biological organization. Our goal in bringing together researchers from different backgrounds was to foster cross-disciplinary insights into the mechanistic bases and higher-order ecological consequences of indirect effects of global change, and to promote collaboration among fields. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Jung, Jaegun; Kumar, Naresh; Yarwood, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Estimates of North American and US Background (NAB and USB) ozone (O3) are critical in setting and implementing the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and therefore influence population exposure to O3 across the US. NAB is defined as the O3 concentration in the absence of anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions from North America whereas USB excludes anthropogenic emissions inside the US alone. NAB and USB vary geographically and with time of year. Analyses of O3 trends at rural locations near the west coast suggest that background O3 is rising in response to increasing non-US emissions. As the O3 NAAQS is lowered, rising background O3 would make attaining the NAAQS more difficult. Most studies of changing US background O3 have inferred trends from observations whereas air quality management decisions tend to rely on models. Thus, it is important that the models used to develop O3 management strategies are able to represent the changes in background O3 in order to increase confidence that air quality management strategies will succeed. We focus on how changing global emissions influence USB rather than the effects of inter-annual meteorological variation or long-term climate change. We use a regional model (CAMx) nested within a global model (GEOS-Chem) to refine our grid resolution over high terrain in the western US and near US borders where USB tends to be higher. We determine USB from CAMx simulations that exclude US anthropogenic emissions. Over five decades, from 1970 to 2020, estimated USB for the annual fourth highest maximum daily 8-h average O3 (H4MDA8) in the western US increased from mostly in the range of 40-55 ppb to 45-60 ppb, but remained below 45 ppb in the eastern US. USB increases in the southwestern US are consistent with rising emissions in Asia and Mexico. USB decreases in the northeast US after 1990 follow declining Canadian emissions. Our results show that the USB increases both for the top 30 MDA8 days and the H4MDA8 (the former

  20. Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: I. An introduction to the project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, A.S.; Palacios-Fest, M. R.; McGill, J.; Swarzenski, P.W.; Verschuren, D.; Sinyinza, R.; Songori, T.; Kakagozo, B.; Syampila, M.; O'Reilly, C. M.; Alin, S.R.

    2005-01-01

    We investigated paleolimnological records from a series of river deltas around the northeastern rim of Lake Tanganyika, East Africa (Tanzania and Burundi) in order to understand the history of anthropogenic activity in the lake's catchment over the last several centuries, and to determine the impact of these activities on the biodiversity of littoral and sublittoral lake communities. Sediment pollution caused by increased rates of soil erosion in deforested watersheds has caused significant changes in aquatic communities along much of the lake's shoreline. We analyzed the effects of sediment discharge on biodiversity around six deltas or delta complexes on the east coast of Lake Tanganyika: the Lubulungu River delta, Kabesi River delta, Nyasanga/Kahama River deltas, and Mwamgongo River delta in Tanzania; and the Nyamuseni River delta and Karonge/Kirasa River deltas in Burundi. Collectively, these deltas and their associated rivers were chosen to represent a spectrum of drainage-basin sizes and disturbance levels. By comparing deltas that are similar in watershed attributes (other than disturbance levels), our goal was to explore a series of historical "experiments" at the watershed scale, with which we could more clearly evaluate hypotheses of land use or other effects on nearshore ecosystems. Here we discuss these deltas, their geologic and physiographic characteristics, and the field procedures used for coring and sampling the deltas, and various indicators of anthropogenic impact. ?? Springer 2005.

  1. Integrating Social Science into the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network: Social Dimensions of Ecological Change and Ecological Dimensions of Social Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles L. Redman; J. Morgan Grove; Lauren H. Kuby; Lauren H. Kuby

    2004-01-01

    The integration of the social sciences into long-term ecological research is an urgent priority. To address this need, a group of social, earth, and life scientists associated with the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network have articulated a conceptual framework for understanding the human dimensions of ecological change...

  2. Has Anthropogenic Forcing Caused a Discernible Change in Atlantic Hurricane Activity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, T. R.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2007-12-01

    the time series and ends with the recent high activity, perhaps exaggerating the significance of the trend. The trend beginning from 1878 is weakly positive, and not statistically significant with p=0.3. The uncertainty in the late 1800s is larger than that during the 1900s--an important caveat on the results using the earlier start date. Tropical cyclone occurrence rates appear to have decreased in the western part of the basin (consistent with declining U.S. landfalling hurricane counts) but may have increased slightly in the central and eastern basin, suggesting a structural change such as shifts in storm tracks. Important assumptions of our methodology, such as that all landfalling storms since 1878 were detected and reported, require further investigation. In an attempt to reconcile the past observations with models, we have developed a regional modeling framework for downscaling Atlantic hurricane activity. Given observed large-scale atmospheric conditions and SSTs from reanalyses, the model reproduces several aspects of past Atlantic hurricane behavior (1980-2006). However, much further work is needed to produce simulations where hurricane activity changes can be confidently attributed, using such models, to various anthropogenic forcings or natural processes. Based on available evidence, we cannot yet conclude with high confidence that anthropogenic forcing has caused a discernible anthropogenic influence on hurricane activity to date.

  3. Ecological public health and climate change policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, George P

    2010-01-01

    The fact that health and disease are products of a complex interaction of factors has long been recognized in public health circles. More recently, the term 'ecological public health' has been used to characterize an era underpinned by the paradigm that, when it comes to health and well-being, 'everything matters'. The challenge for policy makers is one of navigating this complexity to deliver better health and greater equality in health. Recent work in Scotland has been concerned to develop a strategic approach to environment and health. This seeks to embrace complexity within that agenda and recognize a more subtle relationship between health and place but remain practical and relevant to a more traditional hazard-focused environmental health approach. The Good Places, Better Health initiative is underpinned by a new problem-framing approach using a conceptual model developed for that purpose. This requires consideration of a wider social, behavioural etc, context. The approach is also used to configure the core systems of the strategy which gather relevant intelligence, subject it to a process of evaluation and direct its outputs to a broad policy constituency extending beyond health and environment. This paper highlights that an approach, conceived and developed to deliver better health and greater equality in health through action on physical environment, also speaks to a wider public health agenda. Specifically it offers a way to help bridge a gap between paradigm and policy in public health. The author considers that with development, a systems-based approach with close attention to problem-framing/situational modelling may prove useful in orchestrating what is a necessarily complex policy response to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

  4. Urban Cholera and Water Sustainability Challenges under Climatic and Anthropogenic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Faruque, A. G.; Colwell, R. R.

    2013-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city of the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the developing world, especially those located in coastal regions of the tropics remain vulnerable to similar. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with changes in related climatic, environmental, or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or societal factors: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera incidence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend seem to be more epidemic in nature. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements that have negligible to poor water and sanitation systems compounded by increasing frequency of record flood events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of spring outbreaks, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the region.

  5. A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

    2017-01-01

    For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

  6. Unsupervised Multi-Scale Change Detection from SAR Imagery for Monitoring Natural and Anthropogenic Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajadi, Olaniyi A.

    Radar remote sensing can play a critical role in operational monitoring of natural and anthropogenic disasters. Despite its all-weather capabilities, and its high performance in mapping, and monitoring of change, the application of radar remote sensing in operational monitoring activities has been limited. This has largely been due to: (1) the historically high costs associated with obtaining radar data; (2) slow data processing, and delivery procedures; and (3) the limited temporal sampling that was provided by spaceborne radar-based satellites. Recent advances in the capabilities of spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors have developed an environment that now allows for SAR to make significant contributions to disaster monitoring. New SAR processing strategies that can take full advantage of these new sensor capabilities are currently being developed. Hence, with this PhD dissertation, I aim to: (i) investigate unsupervised change detection techniques that can reliably extract signatures from time series of SAR images, and provide the necessary flexibility for application to a variety of natural, and anthropogenic hazard situations; (ii) investigate effective methods to reduce the effects of speckle and other noise on change detection performance; (iii) automate change detection algorithms using probabilistic Bayesian inferencing; and (iv) ensure that the developed technology is applicable to current, and future SAR sensors to maximize temporal sampling of a hazardous event. This is achieved by developing new algorithms that rely on image amplitude information only, the sole image parameter that is available for every single SAR acquisition.. The motivation and implementation of the change detection concept are described in detail in Chapter 3. In the same chapter, I demonstrated the technique's performance using synthetic data as well as a real-data application to map wildfire progression. I applied Radiometric Terrain Correction (RTC) to the data to

  7. Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurance, William F.

    2004-01-01

    This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors that affect trajectories of forest regeneration and carbon sequestration on abandoned lands. Extrapolating results from local studies of biomass dynamics in fragmented and regenerating forests to landscape and regional scales in Amazonia, using remote sensing and GIS. Testing the hypothesis that intact Amazonian forests are functioning as a significant carbon sink. Examining destructive synergisms between forest fragmentation and fire. Assessing the short-term impacts of selective logging on aboveground biomass. Developing GIS models that integrate current spatial data on forest cover, deforestation, logging, mining, highway and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wild fires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the future condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests over the next 20-25 years. Devising predictive spatial models to assess the influence of varied biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on Amazonian deforestation.

  8. Evolutionary responses by native species to major anthropogenic changes to their ecosystems: Pacific salmon in the Columbia River hydropower system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waples, Robin S; Zabel, Richard W; Scheuerell, Mark D; Sanderson, Beth L

    2008-01-01

    The human footprint is now large in all the Earth's ecosystems, and construction of large dams in major river basins is among the anthropogenic changes that have had the most profound ecological consequences, particularly for migratory fishes. In the Columbia River basin of the western USA, considerable effort has been directed toward evaluating demographic effects of dams, yet little attention has been paid to evolutionary responses of migratory salmon to altered selective regimes. Here we make a first attempt to address this information gap. Transformation of the free-flowing Columbia River into a series of slack-water reservoirs has relaxed selection for adults capable of migrating long distances upstream against strong flows; conditions now favour fish capable of migrating through lakes and finding and navigating fish ladders. Juveniles must now be capable of surviving passage through multiple dams or collection and transportation around the dams. River flow patterns deliver some groups of juvenile salmon to the estuary later than is optimal for ocean survival, but countervailing selective pressures might constrain an evolutionary response toward earlier migration timing. Dams have increased the cost of migration, which reduces energy available for sexual selection and favours a nonmigratory life history. Reservoirs are a benign environment for many non-native species that are competitors with or predators on salmon, and evolutionary responses are likely (but undocumented). More research is needed to tease apart the relative importance of evolutionary vs. plastic responses of salmon to these environmental changes; this research is logistically challenging for species with life histories like Pacific salmon, but results should substantially improve our understanding of key processes. If the Columbia River is ever returned to a quasinatural, free-flowing state, remaining populations might face a Darwinian debt (and temporarily reduced fitness) as they struggle to

  9. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  10. Quantifying anthropogenically driven morphologic changes on a barrier island: Fire Island National Seashore, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2012-01-01

    Beach scraping, beach replenishment, and the presence of moderate development have altered the morphology of the dune–beach system at Fire Island National Seashore, located on a barrier island on the south coast of Long Island, New York. Seventeen communities are interspersed with sections of natural, nonmodified land within the park boundary. Beach width, dune elevation change, volume change, and shoreline change were calculated from light detection and ranging (LIDAR), real-time kinematic global positioning system (RTK GPS), and beach profile data sets at two ∼4 km long study sites. Each site contains both modified (developed, replenished, and/or scraped) and nonmodified (natural) areas. The analysis spans 9 years, from 1998 to 2007, which encompasses both scraping and replenishment events at Fire Island. The objectives of this study were to quantify and compare morphological changes in modified and nonmodified zones, and to identify erosional areas within the study sites.Areas of increased volume and shoreline accretion were observed at both sites and at the western site are consistent with sand replenishment activities. The results indicate that from 1998 to 2007 locations backed by development and that employed beach scraping and/or replenishment as erosion control measures experienced more loss of volume, width, and dune elevation as compared with adjacent nonmodified areas. A detailed analysis of one specific modification, beach scraping, shows distinct morphological differences in scraped areas relative to nonscraped areas of the beach. In general, scraped areas where there is development on the dunes showed decreases in all measured parameters and are more likely to experience overwash during storm events. Furthermore, the rapid mobilization of material from the anthropogenic (scraped) dune results in increased beach accretion downcoast.National park lands are immediately adjacent to developed areas on Fire Island, and even relatively small human

  11. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  12. Decline of Yangtze River water and sediment discharge: Impact from natural and anthropogenic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, S. L.; Xu, K. H.; Milliman, J. D.; Yang, H. F.; Wu, C. S.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing impact of both climatic change and human activities on global river systems necessitates an increasing need to identify and quantify the various drivers and their impacts on fluvial water and sediment discharge. Here we show that mean Yangtze River water discharge of the first decade after the closing of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) (2003–2012) was 67 km3/yr (7%) lower than that of the previous 50 years (1950–2002), and 126 km3/yr less compared to the relatively wet period of pre-TGD decade (1993–2002). Most (60–70%) of the decline can be attributed to decreased precipitation, the remainder resulting from construction of reservoirs, improved water-soil conservation and increased water consumption. Mean sediment flux decreased by 71% between 1950–1968 and the post-TGD decade, about half of which occurred prior to the pre-TGD decade. Approximately 30% of the total decline and 65% of the decline since 2003 can be attributed to the TGD, 5% and 14% of these declines to precipitation change, and the remaining to other dams and soil conservation within the drainage basin. These findings highlight the degree to which changes in riverine water and sediment discharge can be related with multiple environmental and anthropogenic factors. PMID:26206169

  13. Quantifying anthropogenic contributions to century-scale groundwater salinity changes, San Joaquin Valley, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Jeffrey; Jurgens, Bryant; Fram, Miranda S.

    2018-01-01

    Total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations in groundwater tapped for beneficial uses (drinking water, irrigation, freshwater industrial) have increased on average by about 100 mg/L over the last 100 years in the San Joaquin Valley, California (SJV). During this period land use in the SJV changed from natural vegetation and dryland agriculture to dominantly irrigated agriculture with growing urban areas. Century-scale salinity trends were evaluated by comparing TDS concentrations and major ion compositions of groundwater from wells sampled in 1910 (Historic) to data from wells sampled in 1993-2015 (Modern). TDS concentrations in subregions of the SJV, the southern (SSJV), western (WSJV), northeastern (NESJV), and southeastern (SESJV) were calculated using a cell-declustering method. TDS concentrations increased in all regions, with the greatest increases found in the SSJV and SESJV. Evaluation of the Modern data from the NESJV and SESJV found higher TDS concentrations in recently recharged (post-1950) groundwater from shallow (soil amendments combined. Bicarbonate showed the greatest increase among major ions, resulting from enhanced silicate weathering due to recharge of irrigation water enriched in CO2 during the growing season. The results of this study demonstrate that large anthropogenic changes to the hydrologic regime, like massive development of irrigated agriculture in semi-arid areas like the SJV, can cause large changes in groundwater quality on a regional scale.

  14. Assessment of ecologically relevant hydrological change in China due to water use and reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zhang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available As China's economy booms, increasing water use has significantly affected hydro-geomorphic processes and thus the ecology of surface waters. A large variety of hydrological changes arising from human activities such as reservoir construction and management, water abstraction, water diversion and agricultural land expansion have been sustained throughout China. Using the global scale hydrological and water use model WaterGAP, natural and anthropogenically altered flow conditions are calculated, taking into account flow alterations due to human water consumption and 580 large reservoirs. The impacts resulting from water consumption and reservoirs have been analyzed separately. A modified "Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration" approach is used to describe the human pressures on aquatic ecosystems due to anthropogenic alterations in river flow regimes. The changes in long-term average river discharge, average monthly mean discharge and coefficients of variation of monthly river discharges under natural and impacted conditions are compared and analyzed. The indicators show very significant alterations of natural river flow regimes in a large part of northern China and only minor alterations in most of southern China. The detected large alterations in long-term average river discharge, the seasonality of flows and the inter-annual variability in the northern half of China are very likely to have caused significant ecological impacts.

  15. Natural and anthropogenic change in the morphology and connectivity of tidal channels of southwest Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C.; Goodbred, S. L., Jr.; Wallace Auerbach, L.; Ahmed, K. R.; Small, C.; Sams, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    Over the last century, land use changes in the Ganges-Brahmaputra tidal delta have transformed >5000 km2 of intertidal mangrove forest to densely inhabited, agricultural islands that have been embanked to protect against tides and storm surges (i.e., polders). More recently, the conversion of rice paddies to profitable shrimp aquaculture has become increasingly widespread. Recent field studies documented that poldering in southwest Bangladesh has resulted in an elevation deficit relative to that of the natural mangrove forests and mean high water (MHW). The offset is a function of lost sedimentation, enhanced compaction, and an effective rise in MHW from tidal amplification. The morphologic adjustment of the tidal channel network to these perturbations, however, has gone largely undocumented. One effect has been the shoaling of many channels due to decreases in fluvial discharge and tidal prism. We document a previously unrecognized anthropogenic component: the widespread closure of large conduit tidal channels for land reclamation and shrimp farming. GIS analysis of historical Landsat and Google Earth imagery within six 1000 km2 study areas reveals that the tidal network in the natural Sundarbans mangrove forest has remained relatively constant since the 1970s, while significant changes are observed in human-modified areas. Construction of the original embankments removed >1000 km of primary tidal creeks, and >80 km2 of land has been reclaimed outside of polders through the closure of formerly active tidal channels (decrease in mean channel width from 256±91 m to 25±10 m). Tidal restriction by large sluice gates is prevalent, favoring local channel siltation. Furthermore, severing the intertidal platform and large conduit channels from the tidal network has had serious repercussions, such as increased lateral migration and straightening of the remaining channels. Where banklines have eroded, the adjacent embankments appear to be more vulnerable to failure, as

  16. Birds in Anthropogenic Landscapes: The Responses of Ecological Groups to Forest Loss in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Carlos Morante-Filho

    Full Text Available Habitat loss is the dominant threat to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in terrestrial environments. In this study, we used an a priori classification of bird species based on their dependence on native forest habitats (forest-specialist and habitat generalists and specific food resources (frugivores and insectivores to evaluate their responses to forest cover reduction in landscapes in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. From the patch-landscapes approach, we delimited 40 forest sites, and quantified the percentage of native forest within a 2 km radius around the center of each site (from 6 - 85%. At each site, we sampled birds using the point-count method. We used a null model, a generalized linear model and a four-parameter logistic model to evaluate the relationship between richness and abundance of the bird groups and the native forest amount. A piecewise model was then used to determine the threshold value for bird groups that showed nonlinear responses. The richness and abundance of the bird community as a whole were not affected by changes in forest cover in this region. However, a decrease in forest cover had a negative effect on diversity of forest-specialist, frugivorous and insectivorous birds, and a positive effect on generalist birds. The species richness and abundance of all ecological groups were nonlinearly related to forest reduction and showed similar threshold values, i.e., there were abrupt changes in individuals and species numbers when forest amount was less than approximately 50%. Forest sites within landscapes with forest cover that was less than 50% contained a different bird species composition than more extensively forested sites and had fewer forest-specialist species and higher beta-diversity. Our study demonstrated the pervasive effect of forest reduction on bird communities in one of the most important hotspots for bird conservation and shows that many vulnerable species require extensive forest cover to persist.

  17. Birds in Anthropogenic Landscapes: The Responses of Ecological Groups to Forest Loss in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morante-Filho, José Carlos; Faria, Deborah; Mariano-Neto, Eduardo; Rhodes, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Habitat loss is the dominant threat to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in terrestrial environments. In this study, we used an a priori classification of bird species based on their dependence on native forest habitats (forest-specialist and habitat generalists) and specific food resources (frugivores and insectivores) to evaluate their responses to forest cover reduction in landscapes in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. From the patch-landscapes approach, we delimited 40 forest sites, and quantified the percentage of native forest within a 2 km radius around the center of each site (from 6 - 85%). At each site, we sampled birds using the point-count method. We used a null model, a generalized linear model and a four-parameter logistic model to evaluate the relationship between richness and abundance of the bird groups and the native forest amount. A piecewise model was then used to determine the threshold value for bird groups that showed nonlinear responses. The richness and abundance of the bird community as a whole were not affected by changes in forest cover in this region. However, a decrease in forest cover had a negative effect on diversity of forest-specialist, frugivorous and insectivorous birds, and a positive effect on generalist birds. The species richness and abundance of all ecological groups were nonlinearly related to forest reduction and showed similar threshold values, i.e., there were abrupt changes in individuals and species numbers when forest amount was less than approximately 50%. Forest sites within landscapes with forest cover that was less than 50% contained a different bird species composition than more extensively forested sites and had fewer forest-specialist species and higher beta-diversity. Our study demonstrated the pervasive effect of forest reduction on bird communities in one of the most important hotspots for bird conservation and shows that many vulnerable species require extensive forest cover to persist.

  18. Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paerl, Hans W., E-mail: hpaerl@email.unc.edu; Hall, Nathan S.; Calandrino, Elizabeth S.

    2011-04-15

    Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N{sub 2}) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N{sub 2} fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change. - Research Highlights: {yields} Toxic cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten global water supplies. {yields} Human (nutrient) and climate (hydrology, temperature) changes synergistically promote CyanoHABs. {yields

  19. Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paerl, Hans W.; Hall, Nathan S.; Calandrino, Elizabeth S.

    2011-01-01

    Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N 2 ) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N 2 fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change. - Research Highlights: → Toxic cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten global water supplies. → Human (nutrient) and climate (hydrology, temperature) changes synergistically promote CyanoHABs. → CyanoHAB control

  20. A possible indication of anthropogenic climate change in the wave climate in the central North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfizenmayer, A.; Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2000-07-01

    In the central North Sea we observe an increase in the frequency of eastward propagating waves in the recent four decades. To assess the significance of this change the wave statistic for this century was reconstructed with a statistical model. With a linear multivariate technique (redundancy analysis) monthly mean air pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Western Europe were downscaled on the intramonthly frequency of directional wave propagation. When compared against this reference, the recent change appears significant at the 5% level. In order to investigate the reason for this local climatic change, reconstruction was compared with the downscaled results of a transient GCM scenario (ECHAMA-OPYC3) and with results obtained in a high resolution time slice experiment with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Both estimates are qualitatively consistent with the changes observed in the last decades. We suggest that the recent increase of eastward propagation is a local manifestation of anthropogenic global climate change. (orig.) [German] In den letzten Jahrzehnten konnte in der zentralen Nordsee eine Zunahme der Haeufigkeit ostwaerts laufender Wellen beobachtet werden. Mit Hilfe eines statistischen Modells wurde die Wellenstatistik des 20. Jahrhunderts rekonstruiert. Der monatliche mittlere Bodenluftdruck ueber dem Nordatlantik und Westeuropa wurde mit einer linearen multivariaten Technik auf die monatliche Verteilung der Wellenrichtungen regionalisiert. Der Vergleich der juengsten Aenderungen mit dem gesamten Jahrhundert zeigt, dass diese Aenderung im Wellenklima signifikant ist (5-%-Grenze). Zur Untersuchung der Ursachen dieser Veraenderung wurden diese mit den regionalisierten Ergebnissen aus einem transienten Klimaszenario und einem hochaufgeloesten Zeitscheibenexperiment verglichen. Beide Szenarien produzieren bei ansteigenden Treibhausgasen und Aerosolen eine qualitativ konsistente Aenderung. Die Zunahme der oestlich laufenden

  1. Reduced Ultrafine Particle Concentration in Urban Air: Changes in Nucleation and Anthropogenic Emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Provat K; Robinson, Ellis S; Shah, Rishabh U; Zimmerman, Naomi; Apte, Joshua S; Robinson, Allen L; Presto, Albert A

    2018-06-19

    Nucleation is an important source of ambient ultrafine particles (UFP). We present observational evidence of the changes in the frequency and intensity of nucleation events in urban air by analyzing long-term particle size distribution measurements at an urban background site in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania during 2001-2002 and 2016-2017. We find that both frequency and intensity of nucleation events have been reduced by 40-50% over the past 15 years, resulting in a 70% reduction in UFP concentrations from nucleation. On average, the particle growth rates are 30% slower than 15 years ago. We attribute these changes to dramatic reductions in SO 2 (more than 90%) and other pollutant concentrations. Overall, UFP concentrations in Pittsburgh have been reduced by ∼48% in the past 15 years, with a ∼70% reduction in nucleation, ∼27% in weekday local sources (e.g., weekday traffic), and 49% in the regional background. Our results highlight that a reduction in anthropogenic emissions can considerably reduce nucleation events and UFP concentrations in a polluted urban environment.

  2. Anthropogenic changes to a billabong in New South Wales. 1. lagoon evolution and phosphorus dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, T.H.; Ford, P.W.

    1999-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes detected in the sediment of a shallow (∼1.6 m) billabong (Horseshoe Lagoon) are the result of a Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) connection in 1958 and catchment urbanization around 1974. Nutrient-rich water caused the collapse of macrophyte populations, algal blooms became common, and urbanization increased sediment deposition (∼1 cm year -1 ). Changes in P retention were investigated by using dated cores, pore-water element profiles, and water quality records. Two of the cores were examined by analyses of pollen, 137 Cs, elemental analyses by XRF, C and N stable isotope ratio, and organic concentrations. The lagoon is the last of three STP holding ponds. Ponds 1 and 2 were sand-mining pits; they receive no sediment input and have negligible P adsorption. The Fe:P ratios in sediments from three Australian rivers have a common slope and this relationship was used to examine Fe:P ratios in the anoxic bottom sediments of the lagoon. A potential for effluent P adsorption developed in the lagoon through Fe mobilization and enrichment in the upper sediments and a strong clay-Fe-P association. The mean long- term P adsorption in the lagoon (35±) was the result of maintaining clay input to an oxic waterbody. Bacterial sulfate reduction is the main process decreasing available Fe for effluent P adsorption. Appropriately designed systems could expect to maintain effluent P adsorption efficiencies of around 70%. Copyright (1999) CSIRO Publishing

  3. The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

    2016-01-01

    A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models, globally distributed data sets, and complex laboratory and data collection procedures. Here we examine efforts by the scientific community and educational researchers to design new curricula and technology that close this gap and impart robust AGCC and Earth Science understanding. We find technology-based teaching shows promise in promoting robust AGCC understandings if associated curricula address mitigating factors such as time constraints in incorporating technology and the need to support teachers implementing AGCC and Earth Science inquiry. We recommend the scientific community continue to collaborate with educational researchers to focus on developing those inquiry technologies and curricula that use realistic scientific processes from AGCC research and/or the methods for determining how human society should respond to global change.

  4. Ecological Footprint in relation to Climate Change Strategy in Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belčáková, Ingrid; Diviaková, Andrea; Belaňová, Eliška

    2017-10-01

    Ecological footprint determines how much natural resources are consumed by an individual, city, region, state or all inhabitants of our planet in order to ensure their requirements and needs. It includes all activities, from food consumption, housing, transport to waste produced and allows us to compare particular activities and their impacts on the environment and natural resources. Ecological footprint is important issue for making sustainable development concept more popular using simplifications, which provide the public with basic information on situation on our planet. Today we know calculations of global (worldwide), national and local ecological footprints. During our research in cities, we were concentrated on calculation of city’s ecological footprint. The article tries to outline theoretical and assumptions and practical results of climate change consequences in cities of Bratislava and Nitra (Slovakia), to describe potential of mitigating adverse impacts of climate change and to provide information for general and professional public on theoretical assumptions in calculating ecological footprint. The intention is to present innovation of ecological footprint calculation, taking into consideration ecological stability of a city (with a specific focus on micro-climate functions of green areas). Present possibilities to reduce ecological footprint are presented.

  5. Testing the ecological consequences of evolutionary change using elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeyasingh, Punidan D; Cothran, Rickey D; Tobler, Michael

    2014-02-01

    Understanding the ecological consequences of evolutionary change is a central challenge in contemporary biology. We propose a framework based on the ˜25 elements represented in biology, which can serve as a conduit for a general exploration of poorly understood evolution-to-ecology links. In this framework, known as ecological stoichiometry, the quantity of elements in the inorganic realm is a fundamental environment, while the flow of elements from the abiotic to the biotic realm is due to the action of genomes, with the unused elements excreted back into the inorganic realm affecting ecological processes at higher levels of organization. Ecological stoichiometry purposefully assumes distinct elemental composition of species, enabling powerful predictions about the ecological functions of species. However, this assumption results in a simplified view of the evolutionary mechanisms underlying diversification in the elemental composition of species. Recent research indicates substantial intraspecific variation in elemental composition and associated ecological functions such as nutrient excretion. We posit that attention to intraspecific variation in elemental composition will facilitate a synthesis of stoichiometric information in light of population genetics theory for a rigorous exploration of the ecological consequences of evolutionary change.

  6. Western Pyrenees facing global change: comparison of the effects of climatic and anthropogenic change on water abstractions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terrasson, Isabelle; Chazot, Sebastien; Maton, Laure; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Caballero, Yvan

    2014-01-01

    In the French Western Pyrenees, the trend to the decrease of low water flows that has been observed during the current years should be going on in the future. This may increase the hydric stress on aquatic ecosystems, and the competition among water uses and users for accessing water resources. The research project ANR-VULCAIN compared the impacts of climatic and socio-economic change on the hydro-systems of the French Western Pyrenees. Modeling and participative prospect analysis have been coupled to quantify the evolution of water abstractions under these two types of change. Socio-economic scenarios have been built together with local stakeholders during workshops (urbanism / land planning on the one hand and agriculture on the other hand). Their results have been quantified with the models developed so as to assess anthropogenic change impacts on domestic and agricultural abstractions. In parallel, the agricultural model has been fed with climatic scenarios so as to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural water needs. In the created scenarios, the evolution of agricultural water needs under climate change have a bigger range than the evolution of abstractions for domestic water and agricultural needs under anthropic change, which are the same order of magnitude. To satisfy this evolution, there are some rooms to maneuver: make distribution modalities more efficient, optimize the management of storage capacity, or use substitution resources. This paper presents the approach that has been followed, and some of the main results. (authors)

  7. Change in diurnal variations of meteorological variables induced by anthropogenic aerosols over the North China Plain in summer 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yi; Zhang, Meigen; Liu, Xiaohong; Wang, Lili

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the impacts of all anthropogenic aerosols and anthropogenic black carbon (BC) on the diurnal variations of meteorological variables in the atmospheric boundary layer over the North China Plain (NCP) during June to August 2008, using a coupled meteorology and chemistry model (WRF-Chem). The results of the ensemble numerical experiments show that surface air temperature decreases by about 0.6 to 1.2 K with the maximum decrease over the Beijing urban area and the southern part of Hebei province, and the surface relative humidity (RH) increases by 2-4 % owing to all anthropogenic aerosols. On the contrary, anthropogenic BC induces a small change of temperature and RH at surface. Averaged for Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei province (BTH region) and High Particle Concentration (HPC) periods when PM2.5 surface concentration is more than 60 μg m-3 and daily AOD is more than 0.9, all anthropogenic aerosols decrease air temperature under 850 hPa and increase it between 500 and 850 hPa, while anthropogenic BC increases it for whole atmosphere. The maximum changes occur at 08:00-20:00 (local time). Aerosol-induced surface energy and diabatic heating change leads to a cooling at the surface and in the lower atmosphere and a warming in the middle troposphere at 08:00-17:00, with reversed effects at 20:00-05:00. BC cools the atmosphere at the surface and warms the atmosphere above for the whole day. As a result, the equivalent potential temperature profile change shows that the lower atmosphere is more stable at 08:00 and 14:00. All anthropogenic aerosols decrease the surface wind speed by 20-60 %, while anthropogenic BC decreases the wind speed by 10-40 % over the NCP with the maximum decrease at 08:00. The aerosol-induced stabilization of the lower atmosphere favors the accumulation of air pollutants and thus contributes to deterioration of visibility and fog-haze events.

  8. Teaching Anthropogenic Climate Change through Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Helping Students Think Critically about Science and Ethics in Dialogue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Claire; O'Brien, Kevin J.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is a complicated issue involving scientific data and analyses as well as political, economic, and ethical issues. In order to capture this complexity, we developed an interdisciplinary student and faculty collaboration by (1) offering introductory lectures on scientific and ethical methods to two classes, (2) assigning…

  9. The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM precipitation to long term changes in regional anthropogenic aerosols (sulphate and black carbon is explored in an atmospheric general circulation model, the atmospheric component of the UK High-Resolution Global Environment Model v1.2 (HiGAM. Separately, sulphur dioxide (SO2 and black carbon (BC emissions in 1950 and 2000 over East Asia are used to drive model simulations, while emissions are kept constant at year 2000 level outside this region. The response of the EASM is examined by comparing simulations driven by aerosol emissions representative of 1950 and 2000. The aerosol radiative effects are also determined using an off-line radiative transfer model. During June, July and August, the EASM was not significantly changed as either SO2 or BC emissions increased from 1950 to 2000 levels. However, in September, precipitation is significantly decreased by 26.4% for sulphate aerosol and 14.6% for black carbon when emissions are at the 2000 level. Over 80% of the decrease is attributed to changes in convective precipitation. The cooler land surface temperature over China in September (0.8 °C for sulphate and 0.5 °C for black carbon due to increased aerosols reduces the surface thermal contrast that supports the EASM circulation. However, mechanisms causing the surface temperature decrease in September are different between sulphate and BC experiments. In the sulphate experiment, the sulphate direct and the 1st indirect radiative effects contribute to the surface cooling. In the BC experiment, the BC direct effect is the main driver of the surface cooling, however, a decrease in low cloud cover due to the increased heating by BC absorption partially counteracts the direct effect. This results in a weaker land surface temperature response to BC changes than to sulphate changes. The resulting precipitation response is also weaker, and the responses of the monsoon circulation

  10. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  11. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L Mann

    Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  12. Anthropogenic Emissions Change the Amount and Composition of Organic PM1 in Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sá, S. S.; Palm, B. B.; Campuzano Jost, P.; Day, D. A.; Hu, W.; Isaacman-VanWertz, G. A.; Yee, L.; Wernis, R. A.; Thalman, R.; Brito, J.; Carbone, S.; Artaxo, P.; Goldstein, A. H.; Manzi, A. O.; Souza, R. A. F. D.; Wang, J.; Alexander, M. L. L.; Jimenez, J. L.; Martin, S. T.

    2017-12-01

    The Amazon forest, while one of the few regions on the globe where pristine conditions may still prevail, has experienced rapid changes due to increasing urbanization in the past decades. Manaus, a Brazilian city of 2-million people in the central Amazon basin, releases a pollution plume over the forest, potentially affecting the production pathways of particulate matter (PM) in the region. As part of GoAmazon2014/5, a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) and a suite of other gas and particle-phase instruments were deployed at the T3 research site, 70 km downwind of Manaus, during the wet and dry seasons. Through a combination of meteorology, emissions, and chemistry, the T3 site was affected by a mixture of biogenic emissions from the tropical rainforest, urban outflow from the Manaus metropolitan area and biomass burning plumes. Results from the T3 site are presented in the context of measurements at T0a/T0t and T2, sites representing predominantly clean and polluted conditions, respectively. The organic component consistently represented on average 70-80% of the PM1 mass concentration across sites and seasons, and constitutes the focus of this work. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis was applied to the time series of organic mass spectra. The resulting factors, which included the so-called IEPOX-SOA, MO-OOA, LO-OOA, BBOA, Fac91 and HOA, provide information on the relative contributions of different sources and pathways to organic PM production. In addition, Fuzzy c-means clustering was applied to the time series of pollution indicators, including concentrations of NOy, total particle number, ozone and sulfate, in order to better understand the convoluted influences of different processes and airmass origin to each point in time. Through combination of the PMF and Fuzzy c-means analyses, insights are drawn about the relative composition of organic PM1 at varying degrees of influence of biogenic and anthropogenic

  13. University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

    2017-01-01

    This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching. This review identifies both the strengths and weaknesses of each of these case studies. It is the first to go beyond examining the impact of specific inquiry instructional approaches to offer a synthesis of cases. We find that inquiry teaching can succeed by concretising scientific processes, providing access to global data and evidence, imparting critical and higher order thinking about AGCC science policy and contextualising learning with places and scientific facts. We recommend educational researchers and scientists collaborate to create and refine curricula that utilise geospatial technologies, climate models and communication technologies to bring students into contact with scientists, climate data and authentic AGCC research processes. Many available science education technologies and curricula also require further research to maximise trade-offs between implementation and training costs and their educational value.

  14. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

    2017-03-27

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

  15. Anthropogenic climate change and allergen exposure: The role of plant biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziska, Lewis H; Beggs, Paul J

    2012-01-01

    Accumulation of anthropogenic gases, particularly CO(2), is likely to have 2 fundamental effects on plant biology. The first is an indirect effect through Earth's increasing average surface temperatures, with subsequent effects on other aspects of climate, such as rainfall and extreme weather events. The second is a direct effect caused by CO(2)-induced stimulation of photosynthesis and plant growth. Both effects are likely to alter a number of fundamental aspects of plant biology and human health, including aerobiology and allergic diseases, respectively. This review highlights the current and projected effect of increasing CO(2) and climate change in the context of plants and allergen exposure, emphasizing direct effects on plant physiologic parameters (eg, pollen production) and indirect effects (eg, fungal sporulation) related to diverse biotic and abiotic interactions. Overall, the review assumes that future global mitigation efforts will be limited and suggests a number of key research areas that will assist in adapting to the ongoing challenges to public health associated with increased allergen exposure. Published by Mosby, Inc.

  16. Ecosystem changes in the Neva Estuary (Baltic Sea): natural dynamics or response to anthropogenic impacts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golubkov, Sergey; Alimov, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    The Neva Estuary situated in the eastern Gulf of Finland is one of the largest estuaries of the Baltic Sea with a large conurbation, St. Petersburg, situated on its coast. Eutrophication, alien species and large-scale digging and dumping of bottom sediment are the most prominent anthropogenic impacts on its ecosystem. However, many ecosystem responses, which are traditionally attribute to these impacts, are related to natural dynamics of the ecosystem. Fluctuations in discharge of the Neva River, intrusions of bottom hypoxic waters from the western part of the Gulf of Finland, higher summer temperatures and a shorter period of ice cover are climatic mediated factors inducing adverse changes in its ecosystem from the 1980s onwards. The main ecosystem responses to these factors are 2-3-fold increase of trophic status, deterioration of native zoobenthic communities and establishment of alien species, as well as the many fold decrease of fish catch and the population of ringed seal in the region. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Long term, non-anthropogenic groundwater storage changes simulated by a global land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, B.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is crucial for meeting agricultural, industrial and municipal water needs, especially in arid, semi-arid and drought impacted regions. Yet, knowledge on groundwater response to climate variability is not well understood due to lack of systematic and continuous in situ measurements. In this study, we investigate global non-anthropogenic groundwater storage variations with a land surface model driven by a 67-year (1948-204) meteorological forcing data set. Model estimates were evaluated using in situ groundwater data from the central and northeastern U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and found to be reasonable. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed to examine modes of variability of groundwater storage and their relationship with atmospheric effects such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. The result shows that the leading mode in global groundwater storage reflects the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Consistent with the EOF analysis, global total groundwater storage reflected the low frequency variability of ENSO and decreased significantly over 1948-2014 while global ET and precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends. This study suggests that while precipitation and ET are the primary drivers of climate related groundwater variability, changes in other forcing fields than precipitation and temperature are also important because of their influence on ET. We discuss the need to improve model physics and to continuously validate model estimates and forcing data for future studies.

  18. Analysis of the Contribution Rate of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity to Runoff Variation in Nenjiang Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liqin Dong

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Pettitt abrupt change test method based on ArcGIS was used to undertake change-point analysis on climatic (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration; 39 meteorological stations and runoff data (27 hydrological stations from 1954–2015 in the Nenjiang basin. The hydrological sensitivity analysis method was also used to calculate the influential component of climate change upstream, mid-stream, and downstream of the Nenjiang basin, as well as the effect of anthropogenic activities on runoff. Our results show that the upstream area has the highest contribution rate of climate change, followed by the mid-stream area; the downstream area has the lowest contribution rate. Studying climate change contribution rates in various sites in the Nenjiang basin, in addition to anthropogenic activities affecting runoff, can provide the foundation for the protection and utilization of basin water resources, as well as the conservation and restoration of wetlands.

  19. The role of Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) on Ancient Climates and Implications for Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumming, M.

    2017-12-01

    Our increasingly robust history of ancient climates indicates that high latitude glaciation is the ultimate product of an episodic cooling trend that began about 100-million years ago rather than a result of a yet-to-be identified modal change. Antarctic geography (continent surrounded by ocean) allowed ice to develop prior to significant glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere (ocean surrounded by land), but global ice volume generally increased as Earth cooled. The question of what caused the Ice Ages should be reframed as to "What caused the Cenozoic Cooling?" Records tell us that changes in temperature and CO2 levels rise and fall together, however it is not clear when CO2 acts as a driver versus when it is primarily an indicator of temperature change. The episodic nature of the cooling trend suggests other more dynamic phenomena are involved. It is proposed that oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a significant role in regulating Earth's surface temperature. Robust MOC has a cooling effect which results from its sequestration of cold waters (together with their increased heat-absorbing potential) below the surface. Unable to better absorb equatorial insolation for great lengths of time, oceanic deep waters are not able to fully compensate for the heat lost by warm-water transport to Polar Regions. A lag-time between cooling and subsequent warming yields lower operating temperatures commensurate with the strength of global MOC. The long-term decline in global temperatures is largely explained by the tectonic reshaping of ocean basins and the connections between them such that MOC has generally, but not uniformly, increased. Geophysically Influenced MOC (GIMOC) has caused a significant proportion of the lowering of global temperatures in the Cenozoic Era. Short-term disruptions in MOC (and subsequent impacts on global temperatures) were likely involved in Late Pleistocene glacial termination events and may already be compounding present

  20. Nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services in the Brazilian La Plata Basin: anthropogenic influence and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Watanabe

    Full Text Available The increasing human demand for food, raw material and energy has radically modified both the landscape and biogeochemical cycles in many river basins in the world. The interference of human activities on the Biosphere is so significant that it has doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen due to industrial fertiliser production (Haber-Bosch, fossil fuel burning and land-use change over the last century. In this context, the Brazilian La Plata Basin contributes to the alteration of the nitrogen cycle in South America because of its huge agricultural and grazing area that meets the demands of its large urban centres - Sao Paulo, for instance - and also external markets abroad. In this paper, we estimate the current inputs and outputs of anthropogenic nitrogen (in kg N.km-2.yr-1 in the basin. In the results, we observe that soybean plays a very important role in the Brazilian La Plata, since it contributes with an annual entrance of about 1.8 TgN due to biological nitrogen fixation. Moreover, our estimate indicates that the export of soybean products accounts for roughly 1.0 TgN which is greater than the annual nitrogen riverine exports from Brazilian Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers together. Complimentarily, we built future scenarios representing changes in the nitrogen cycle profile considering two scenarios of climate change for 2070-2100 (based on IPCC's A2 and B2 that will affect land-use, nitrogen inputs, and loss of such nutrients in the basin. Finally, we discuss how both scenarios will affect human well-being since there is a connection between nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services that affect local and global populations, such as food and fibre production and climate regulation.

  1. Nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services in the Brazilian La Plata Basin: anthropogenic influence and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, M; Ortega, E; Bergier, I; Silva, J S V

    2012-08-01

    The increasing human demand for food, raw material and energy has radically modified both the landscape and biogeochemical cycles in many river basins in the world. The interference of human activities on the Biosphere is so significant that it has doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen due to industrial fertiliser production (Haber-Bosch), fossil fuel burning and land-use change over the last century. In this context, the Brazilian La Plata Basin contributes to the alteration of the nitrogen cycle in South America because of its huge agricultural and grazing area that meets the demands of its large urban centres - Sao Paulo, for instance - and also external markets abroad. In this paper, we estimate the current inputs and outputs of anthropogenic nitrogen (in kg N.km(-2).yr(-1)) in the basin. In the results, we observe that soybean plays a very important role in the Brazilian La Plata, since it contributes with an annual entrance of about 1.8 TgN due to biological nitrogen fixation. Moreover, our estimate indicates that the export of soybean products accounts for roughly 1.0 TgN which is greater than the annual nitrogen riverine exports from Brazilian Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers together. Complimentarily, we built future scenarios representing changes in the nitrogen cycle profile considering two scenarios of climate change for 2070-2100 (based on IPCC's A2 and B2) that will affect land-use, nitrogen inputs, and loss of such nutrients in the basin. Finally, we discuss how both scenarios will affect human well-being since there is a connection between nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services that affect local and global populations, such as food and fibre production and climate regulation.

  2. Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Fangxing; Dong, Buwen; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan

    2018-02-01

    Since the mid-1990s precipitation trends over eastern China display a dipole pattern, characterized by positive anomalies in the south and negative anomalies in the north, named as the Southern-Flood-Northern-Drought (SFND) pattern. This work investigates the drivers of decadal changes of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the dynamical mechanisms involved, by using a coupled climate model (specifically an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model) forced by changes in (1) anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), (2) anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and (3) the combined effects of both GHG and AA (All Forcing) between two periods across the mid-1990s. The model experiment forced by changes in All Forcing shows a dipole pattern of response in precipitation over China that is similar to the observed SFND pattern across the mid-1990s, which suggests that anthropogenic forcing changes played an important role in the observed decadal changes. Furthermore, the experiments with separate forcings indicate that GHG and AA forcing dominate different parts of the SFND pattern. In particular, changes in GHG increase precipitation over southern China, whilst changes in AA dominate in the drought conditions over northern China. Increases in GHG cause increased moisture transport convergence over eastern China, which leads to increased precipitation. The AA forcing changes weaken the EASM, which lead to divergent wind anomalies over northern China and reduced precipitation.

  3. Antibiotic contamination in a typical developing city in south China: occurrence and ecological risks in the Yongjiang River impacted by tributary discharge and anthropogenic activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Baoming; Zhang, Ruijie; Wang, Yinghui; Liu, Xiang; Li, Jun; Zhang, Gan

    2013-06-01

    The occurrence and distribution of ten selected antibiotics from three groups (sulfonamides, macrolides, and trimethoprim) were investigated in the Yongjiang River, which flows through Nanning City, a typical developing city in China. The study also assessed the ecological risks and the potential effects caused by discharge from tributaries and anthropogenic activities. Concentrations of most of the antibiotics were elevated along the section of the river in the urban area, highlighting the significant impact of high population density and human activities on the presence of antibiotics in the environment. The concentrations in the tributaries (ranged from not detected to 1336ngL(-1)) were generally higher than those in the main stream (ranged from not detected to 78.8ngL(-1)), but both areas contained the same predominant antibiotics, revealing the importance of tributary discharge as a source of antibiotic pollution. A risk assessment for the surface water contamination revealed that sulfamethoxazole and erythromycin posed high ecological risks to the most sensitive aquatic organisms (Synechococcus leopoliensis and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, respectively) in the midstream and some tributaries. Most of the selected antibiotics presented high ecological risks (risk quotients up to 95) in the sediments. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Vulnerability of Oyster Resource Users to Ecological Change: Case Study from Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries, A.; La Peyre, M.; Hall, S.; Dowty Beech, R.

    2016-02-01

    Knowledge of vulnerability provides the foundation for developing actions that minimize impacts on people while maximizing the sustainability of ecosystem goods and services including fisheries. As a result, it is becoming increasingly important to determine if resource-dependent people are vulnerable to ecological change as anthropogenic and climate-induced stressors affect resources in different ways. In coastal Louisiana, the current era of rapid marsh loss and abrupt environmental variation (e.g., sediment diversions) has the potential to undermine oyster-associated livelihoods for those most vulnerable. To evaluate vulnerability, we examined dimensions of social sensitivity and adaptive capacity using semi-structured interviews with three stakeholder groups in the oyster fishery of Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana. Results indicate that oyster owners/operators are highly dependent, and thus sensitive, to changes in the ecological conditions of the fishery due to high levels of occupational identity; however they are likely adaptable, reflected in their willingness to learn about new practices and evolve over time. In contrast, oyster fishers that do not own any portion of the business in which they operate are bad at coping with change and frequently hold negative or fatalistic views on financial planning. Overall, oyster resource users most vulnerable to ecological change will be those with high levels of stewardship, open-minded values, and a balanced perception of environment, as well as low to moderate levels of personal and financial buffers and trust. These results suggest that resource users with higher sensitivity to change are not necessarily most vulnerable because sensitivity may be offset by adaptive capacity. In other words, while sensitivity may determine the potential impact of a climate- or human-induced ecological change to the oyster fishery, adaptive capacity can be a major influence on what impacts actually eventuate.

  5. Bio-monitoring of the most industrialized area in Poland: Trees' response to climate and anthropogenic environmental changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sensuła, Barbara; Wilczyński, Sławomir; Piotrowska, Natalia

    2017-04-01

    Silesia is one of the regions with the highest levels of air pollution in Europe, highly industrialized over the years and highly populated. In this study, trees (Pinus Sylvestris L.)growing in the heavily urbanized area in close proximity to point-source pollution emitters, such as a heat and power plant, nitrogen plant, and steelworks in Silesia (Poland), were analyzed as bio-indicators of contemporary environmental changes. Trees are a very good archive of ecosystem changes, becouse they are sensitive to climate changes and anthropogenic pollution. The pollution impacts human, plants and animal life and different ecosystem processes. The changes in the ecosystem can disturb the metabolism and physiological processes of trees, and consequently, they also have an effect on the wood structure, tree ring width and the isotopic composition of wood and its components. The analysed samples covered the time period of the development of industrialization and the modernization in the industrial sector in Poland. In Poland, the systematic long-term monitoring of air pollutants is generally restricted to rural point-source regions in urban areas. Even for those areas, air pollution emissions were not continually monitored and data is only available for the last decades. Tree ring series that present long-term data can be used to analyse the ecosystem changes, caused by human activities. The conifers investigated in this study have grown for many years under the stress of environmental contamination. We analysed the spatiotemporal distribution of growth reductions, the depth of reduction with respect to the distance from the emitter, the relationship between tree growth and radiocarbon and stable isotope composition and climate during the industry development period and during pro-ecological strategy application. Pines chronologies indicate that trees have a similar sensitivity to most climatic elements of the previous and given year, but there is also observed a different

  6. Dynamics in Protected Areas and Domesticated Landscapes Caused by Climate Change and Anthropogenic Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, J.; Ryan, S.; Stampone, M.; Chapman, C.

    2009-12-01

    Climate change, a key factor of concern for conservation, has important biological and social implications. Africa’s Albertine Rift is an area of extremely high endemic biodiversity and is classed as a world conservation priority. However, natural areas are represented by a chain of protected forest areas in a matrix of intensive smallholder agriculture and dense human settlements. Kibale National Park in western Uganda has become an island of forest surrounded by intensive small-scale agriculture and is the only remaining large area of mid-altitude forest remaining in Albertine Rift Region and East Africa. Increased temperature and precipitation over recent decades has been observed by scientists and local farmers, however, to date, rigorous analysis of local climate data and the impact of climate change on local resources does not exist. Moreover, local farmers report that some crops die or ripen too early because of increased precipitation. Conservation biologists and park managers are concerned that changes in tree phenology and primary productivity will alter wildlife feeding preferences and ranges leading to more human-wildlife conflict. Understanding the impact of local and regional climate change and variation within the social, conservation, and geographic context is necessary to construct informed management plans and to maintain positive park-people relationships. This paper describes our first attempt to fully integrate multiple temporal and spatial datasets, and our progress in developing an interdisciplinary framework to study social and ecological relationships in the Kibale landscape. We examine historical in situ climate data and proxy climate information derived from remotely sensed satellite-borne imagery in our preliminary analyses. Our goal is to link these data with both pre-existing imagery analyses and tree community composition and phenology data from 39 years of ongoing research to identify the pattern, trajectory, and drivers of local

  7. Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

    2009-04-01

    In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

  8. Boreal mire carbon exchange: sensitivity to climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen and sulfur deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eriksson, Tobias

    2010-07-01

    Boreal peatlands are important long-term sinks of atmospheric carbon and in the same time the largest natural source of methane to the atmosphere. A changing climate as well as deposition of anthropogenically derived pollutants, such as nitrogen and sulfur, has the potential to affect the processes that control the carbon exchange in peatlands. Many of the biogeochemical responses to changed environmental conditions, such as changed plant community composition, are slow and therefore long-term studies are required. In this thesis I have investigated the long-term effects of nitrogen addition, sulfur addition and greenhouse enclosures on carbon exchange by using a field manipulation experiment in a boreal minerogenic, oligotrophic mire after 10-12 years of treatment. Treatment effects on CH{sub 4} emissions, gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were estimated from 1-2 seasons of chamber flux measurements. Treatment effects on potential CH{sub 4} production and oxidation were estimated in incubations of peat from different depth intervals. The effect of nitrogen deposition on carbon accumulation was evaluated in peat cores at different depth intervals. The long-term nitrogen additions have: shifted plant community composition from being dominated by Sphagnum to being dominated by sedges and dwarf shrubs; changed mire surface microtopography so that mean water table is closer to the surface in plots with high nitrogen; increased CH{sub 4} production and emission; increased Reco slightly but have not affected GPP or NEE; reduced the peat height increment, but increased both peat bulk density and carbon content, leading to an unchanged carbon accumulation. The long-term sulfur additions have not reduced CH{sub 4} emissions, only slightly reduced CH{sub 4} production and did not have any effect on the CO{sub 2} carbon exchange. The greenhouse treatment, manifested in increased air and soil temperatures, reduced

  9. A Graph Theory Approach for Geovisualization of Anthropogenic Land Use Change: An application to Lisbon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Vaz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban sprawl and growth has experienced increased concern in geographic and environmental literature. Preceding the existence of robust frameworks found in regional and urban planning, as well as urban geography and economics, the spatial properties of allocation of urban land use are still far from being completely understood. This is largely due to the underlying complexity of the change found at the spatial level of urban land use, merging social, economic and natural drivers. The spatial patterns formed, and the connectivity established among the different subsets of land-use types, becomes a complex network of interactions over time, helping to shape the structure of the city. The possibility to merge the configuration of land-use with complex networks may be assessed elegantly through graph theory. Nodes and edges can become abstract representations of typologies of space and are represented into a topological space of different land use types which traditionally share common spatial boundaries. Within a regional framework, the links between adjacent and neighboring urban land use types become better understood, by means of a KamadaKawai algorithm. This study uses land use in Lisbon over three years, 1990, 2000 and 2006, to develop a Kamada-Kawai graph interpretation of land-use as a result of neighboring power. The rapid change witnessed in Lisbon since the nineties, as well as the availability of CORINE Land Cover data in these three time stamps, permits a reflection on anthropogenic land-use change in urban and semi-urban areas in Portugal’s capital. This paper responds to (1 the structure and connectivity of urban land use over time, demonstrating that most of the agricultural land is stressed to transform to urban, gaining a central role in future. (2 Offer a systemic approach to land-use transitions generating what we call spatial memory, where land use change is often unpredictable over space, but becomes evident in a graph theory

  10. Reconstructing Colonization Dynamics of the Human Parasite Schistosoma mansoni following Anthropogenic Environmental Changes in Northwest Senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Broeck, Frederik; Maes, Gregory E.; Larmuseau, Maarten H. D.; Rollinson, David; Sy, Ibrahima; Faye, Djibril; Volckaert, Filip A. M.; Polman, Katja; Huyse, Tine

    2015-01-01

    Background Anthropogenic environmental changes may lead to ecosystem destabilization and the unintentional colonization of new habitats by parasite populations. A remarkable example is the outbreak of intestinal schistosomiasis in Northwest Senegal following the construction of two dams in the ‘80s. While many studies have investigated the epidemiological, immunological and geographical patterns of Schistosoma mansoni infections in this region, little is known about its colonization history. Methodology/Principal Findings Parasites were collected at several time points after the disease outbreak and genotyped using a 420 bp fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 gene (cox1) and nine nuclear DNA microsatellite markers. Phylogeographic and population genetic analyses revealed the presence of (i) many genetically different haplotypes at the non-recombining mitochondrial marker and (ii) one homogenous S. mansoni genetic group at the recombining microsatellite markers. These results suggest that the S. mansoni population in Northwest Senegal was triggered by intraspecific hybridization (i.e. admixture) between parasites that were introduced from different regions. This would comply with the extensive immigration of infected seasonal agricultural workers from neighboring regions in Senegal, Mauritania and Mali. The spatial and temporal stability of the established S. mansoni population suggests a swift local adaptation of the parasite to the local intermediate snail host Biomphalaria pfeifferi at the onset of the epidemic. Conclusions/Significance Our results show that S. mansoni parasites are very successful in colonizing new areas without significant loss of genetic diversity. Maintaining high levels of diversity guarantees the adaptive potential of these parasites to cope with selective pressures such as drug treatment, which might complicate efforts to control the disease. PMID:26275049

  11. Are erosion regimes in SE Australian forests responding to anthropogenic climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyman, P.; Rutherfurd, I.; Lane, P. N. J.; Sheridan, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    presentation we outline a conceptual framework for combining such models with data on past debris flow activity to conduct an attribution study into the effect of anthropogenic climate change on erosion regimes in southeast Australian temperate forests.

  12. Political economy of climate change, ecological destruction and uneven development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Hara, Phillip Anthony

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze climate change and ecological destruction through the prism of the core general principles of political economy. The paper starts with the principle of historical specificity, and the various waves of climate change through successive cooler and warmer periods on planet Earth, including the most recent climate change escalation through the open circuit associated with the treadmill of production. Then we scrutinize the principle of contradiction associated with the disembedded economy, social costs, entropy and destructive creation. The principle of uneven development is then explored through core-periphery dynamics, ecologically unequal exchange, metabolic rift and asymmetric global (in)justice. The principles of circular and cumulative causation (CCC) and uncertainty are then related to climate change dynamics through non-linear transformations, complex interaction of dominant variables, and threshold effects. Climate change and ecological destruction are impacting on most areas, especially the periphery, earlier and more intensely than previously thought likely. A political economy approach to climate change is able to enrich the analysis of ecological economics and put many critical themes in a broad context. (author)

  13. Ecological, biogeochemical and salinity changes in coastal lakes and wetlands over the last 200 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Lucy; Holmes, Jonathan; Horne, David

    2016-04-01

    Shallow lakes provide extensive ecosystem services and are ecologically important aquatic resources supporting a diverse flora and fauna. In marginal-marine areas, where such lakes are subjected to the multiple pressures of coastal erosion, sea level rise, increasing sea surface temperature and increasing frequency and intensity of storm surges, environments are complex and unstable. They are characterised by physico-chemical variations due to climatic (precipitation/evaporation cycles) and dynamic factors (tides, currents, freshwater drainage and sea level changes). Combined with human activity in the catchment these processes can alter the salinity, habitat and ecology of coastal fresh- to brackish water ecosystems. In this study the chemical and biological stability of coastal lakes forming the Upper Thurne catchment in the NE of the Norfolk Broads, East Anglia, UK are seriously threatened by long-term changes in salinity resulting from storm surges, complex hydrogeology and anthropogenic activity in the catchment. Future management decisions depend on a sound understanding of the potential ecological impacts, but such understanding is limited by short-term observations and measurements. This research uses palaeolimnological approaches, which can be validated and calibrated with historical records, to reconstruct changes in the aquatic environment on a longer time scale than can be achieved by observations alone. Here, salinity is quantitatively reconstructed using the trace-element geochemistry (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) of low Mg-calcite shells of Ostracoda (microscopic bivalved crustaceans) and macrophyte and macroinvertebrate macrofossil remains are used as a proxy to assess ecological change in response to variations in salinity. δ13C values of Cladocera (which are potentially outcompeted by the mysid Neomysis integer with increasing salinity and eutrophication) can be used to reconstruct carbon cycling and energy pathways in lake food webs, which alongside

  14. Influence of the anthropogenic changes of gamma dose radiation connected connected with uranium mining upon selected plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solecki, A. T.; Wislocka, M.A.

    2000-01-01

    The situation of flora in the regions with expressive anthropogenic changes in the background of gamma radiation and concentration of the radon in atmospheric air was observed. The content of heavy metals in the depth of the anomaly terrain was analyzed. The analyses of the selected radionuclides in plant ash by method in thin layer were performed. The concentration of radionuclides and situation of flora was correlated. (authors)

  15. Ecological theories of systems and contextual change in medical education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellaway, Rachel H; Bates, Joanna; Teunissen, Pim W

    2017-12-01

    Contemporary medical practice is subject to many kinds of change, to which both individuals and systems have to respond and adapt. Many medical education programmes have their learners rotating through different training contexts, which means that they too must learn to adapt to contextual change. Contextual change presents many challenges to medical education scholars and practitioners, not least because of a somewhat fractured and contested theoretical basis for responding to these challenges. There is a need for robust concepts to articulate and connect the various debates on contextual change in medical education. Ecological theories of systems encompass a range of concepts of how and why systems change and how and why they respond to change. The use of these concepts has the potential to help medical education scholars explore the nature of change and understand the role it plays in affording as well as limiting teaching and learning. This paper, aimed at health professional education scholars and policy makers, explores a number of key concepts from ecological theories of systems to present a comprehensive model of contextual change in medical education to inform theory and practice in all areas of medical education. The paper considers a range of concepts drawn from ecological theories of systems, including biotic and abiotic factors, panarchy, attractors and repellers, basins of attraction, homeostasis, resilience, adaptability, transformability and hysteresis. Each concept is grounded in practical examples from medical education. Ecological theories of systems consider change and response in terms of adaptive cycles functioning at different scales and speeds. This can afford opportunities for systematic consideration of responses to contextual change in medical education, which in turn can inform the design of education programmes, activities, evaluations, assessments and research that accommodates the dynamics and consequences of contextual change.

  16. Anthropogenic change in water bodies in the southern part of the Silesian Upland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Machowski Robert

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the anthropogenic change in water bodies in the southern part of the Silesian Upland as exemplified by the town of Knurów. The assessment was based on topographic maps from the years 1827-1828, 1928-1936, 1960 and 1993, and on a 2011 orthophotomap. The cartographic materials used were processed as required for analysis purposes. Maps were calibrated in the Quantum GIS program on the basis of map corner coordinates and using the common points method. In Knurów, four main types of water bodies were distinguished with respect to their origins: reservoirs impounded by dams, flooded mineral workings, industrial water bodies and water bodies in subsidence basins and hollows. Historically, the first water bodies to appear were reservoirs impounded by dams, which dominated until the 1930s. They later fell into disuse and were completely dismantled. Water bodies in mineral workings formed in the early 20th century and were associated with the excavation of raw materials for producing bricks. The period of their greatest significance were the 1960s, when they constituted slightly more than 46% of water bodies in total and accounted for nearly 40% of overall surface area. At the end of the 19th and at the beginning of the 20th century, industrial reservoirs began to appear. Within the town of Knurów, those were sedimentation tanks that held mine water, washery effluent, backfill and cooling water, fire-fighting water pools and tanks, tanks at sewage treatment plants, industrial water tanks and others. Presently, these account for 41.4% (29 of the total number of water bodies and have a total surface area of 32.0 ha (25,2%. Within the study area, water bodies in subsidence basins and hollows only began to form in the second half of the 20th century. In 2011, such water bodies numbered 38 (54.3% and occupied an area of 90.4 ha (71.2%.

  17. Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaud, Sabrina; Michaux, Jacques; Schmidt, Daniela N; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre; Mein, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

    2005-03-22

    Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of morphological evolution along both lineages and compare them to environmental trends. Climatic changes do not have a direct influence on evolution, but they open new ecological opportunities by changing vegetation and allow the evolution of a specialist like Stephanomys. On the other hand, environmental changes are not dramatic enough to destroy the habitat of a long-term generalist like Apodemus. Hence, our results exemplify a case of an influence of climate on the evolution of specialist species, although a generalist species may persist without change.

  18. Impact of the changing ecology on intertidal polychaetes in an anthropogenically stressed tropical creek, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Quadros, G.; Sukumaran, S.; Athalye, R.P.

    of Bombay, India. Part I: quantification of heavy metal pollution of aquatic sediments and recogni- tion of environmental discriminants. Chem Geol 90:263– 283. doi:10.1016/0009-2541(91)90104-Y Sanders HL, Grassle JF, Hampson GR, Morse LS, Garner Price S...

  19. Can oceanic reanalyses be used to assess recent anthropogenic changes and low-frequency internal variability of upper ocean temperature?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corre, L.; Terray, L.; Weaver, A. [Cerfacs-CNRS, Toulouse (France); Balmaseda, M. [E.C.M.W.F, Reading (United Kingdom); Ribes, A. [CNRM-GAME, Meteo France-CNRS, Toulouse (France)

    2012-03-15

    A multivariate analysis of the upper ocean thermal structure is used to examine the recent long-term changes and decadal variability in the upper ocean heat content as represented by model-based ocean reanalyses and a model-independent objective analysis. The three variables used are the mean temperature above the 14 C isotherm, its depth and a fixed depth mean temperature (250 m mean temperature). The mean temperature above the 14 C isotherm is a convenient, albeit simple, way to isolate thermodynamical changes by filtering out dynamical changes related to thermocline vertical displacements. The global upper ocean observations and reanalyses exhibit very similar warming trends (0.045 C per decade) over the period 1965-2005, superimposed with marked decadal variability in the 1970s and 1980s. The spatial patterns of the regression between indices (representative of anthropogenic changes and known modes of internal decadal variability), and the three variables associated with the ocean heat content are used as fingerprint to separate out the different contributions. The choice of variables provides information about the local heat absorption, vertical distribution and horizontal redistribution of heat, this latter being suggestive of changes in ocean circulation. The discrepancy between the objective analysis and the reanalyses, as well as the spread among the different reanalyses, are used as a simple estimate of ocean state uncertainties. Two robust findings result from this analysis: (1) the signature of anthropogenic changes is qualitatively different from those of the internal decadal variability associated to the Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation, and (2) the anthropogenic changes in ocean heat content do not only consist of local heat absorption, but are likely related with changes in the ocean circulation, with a clear shallowing of the tropical thermocline in the Pacific and Indian oceans. (orig.)

  20. Real-time observational evidence of changing Asian dust morphology with the mixing of heavy anthropogenic pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, X.; Uno, I.; Wang, Z.; Nishizawa, T.; Sugimoto, N.; Yamamoto, S.; Kobayashi, H.; Sun, Y.; Fu, P.; Tang, X.; Wang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Natural mineral dust and heavy anthropogenic pollution and its complex interactions cause significant environmental problems in East Asia. Due to restrictions of observing technique, real-time morphological change in Asian dust particles owing to coating process of anthropogenic pollutants is still statistically unclear. Here, we first used a newly developed, single-particle polarization detector and quantitatively investigate the evolution of the polarization property of backscattering light reflected from dust particle as they were mixing with anthropogenic pollutants in North China. The decrease in observed depolarization ratio is mainly attributed to the decrease of aspect ratio of the dust particles as a result of continuous coating processes. Hygroscopic growth of Calcium nitrate (Ca(NO3)2) on the surface of the dust particles played a vital role, particularly when they are stagnant in the polluted region with high RH conditions. Reliable statistics highlight the significant importance of internally mixed, `quasi-spherical' Asian dust particles, which markedly act as cloud condensation nuclei and exert regional climate change.

  1. Climate change: Implications for water and ecological resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wall, G.; Sanderson, M.

    1990-01-01

    A conference was held to discuss the implications of climate change on water and ecological resources. The meeting consisted of a number of plenary sessions, luncheon speeches, an open forum, and five workshops. Presentations concerned regional and global issues, climate modelling, international aspects of climate change, water resources supply and demand, wetlands, wildlife and fisheries, agriculture and forests, and conservation strategies. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 32 presentations from the conference

  2. Climate and Anthropogenic Change in Aquatic Environments: A Cross Ecosystem Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    contrac- tions of species habitat ranges and alter physiological processes, both of which can translate to significant disrup- tions in the ecological ...threatened by rising tempera- tures and ocean acidification. Among the threatened organisms are the planktonic larvae of many ecologically and economically...habitats, from the rocky mid-ocean ridges, submarine canyons, trenches, and seamounts , to the island-like chemoautotrophic cold seeps, hydrothermal

  3. Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeigler, Sara; Catlin, Daniel H.; Bomberger Brown, M.; Fraser, J.D.; Dinan, Lauren R.; Hunt, Kelsi L.; Jorgensen, Joel G.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

    2017-01-01

    Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval ~ 20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the

  4. Analyzing anthropogenic pressures in soils of agro-ecological protected coastal wetlands in L'Albufera de Valencia Natural Park, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascual-Aguilar, Juan Antonio; Andreu, Vicente; Gimeno, Eugenia; Picó, Yolanda

    2013-04-01

    Coastal wetlands, despite the importance of their environmental and ecological functions, are areas that suffer of great pressures. Most of them are produced by the rapid development of the surrounding artificial landscapes. Socio-economic factors such as population growth and urban-industrial surfaces expansion introduce pressures on the nearby environment affecting the quality of natural and agricultural landscapes. The present research analyses interconnections among landscapes (urban, agricultural and natural) under the hypothesis that urban-artificial impacts could be detected on soils of an agro-ecological protected area, L'Albufera de Valencia, Natural Park, located in the vicinity or the urban area of the City of Valencia, Spain. It has been developed based on Environmental Forensics criteria witch attend two types of anthropogenic pressures: (1) direct, due to artificialization of soil covers that produce anthropogenic soil sealing, and (2) indirect, which are related to water flows coming from urban populations throw artificial water networks (sewage and irrigation systems) and that ultimately will be identified by the presence of o emerging-pharmaceuticals contaminants in soils of the protected area. For the first case, soil sealing a methodology based on temporal comparison of two digital layers for the years 1991 and 2011 applying Geographical Information Systems and Landscapes Metrics were undertaken. To determine presence of emerging contaminants 15 soil samples within the Natural Park were analyzed applying liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry for the detection of 17 pharmaceutical compounds. Results show that both processes are present in the Natural Park with a clear geographical pattern. Either soil sealing or detection of pharmaceuticals are more intensive in the northern part of the study area. This is related to population density (detection of pharmaceuticals) and land cover conversion from agricultural and natural surfaces to

  5. Cloud albedo changes in response to anthropogenic sulfate and non-sulfate aerosol forcings in CMIP5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Frey

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The effects of different aerosol types on cloud albedo are analysed using the linear relation between total albedo and cloud fraction found on a monthly mean scale in regions of subtropical marine stratocumulus clouds and the influence of simulated aerosol variations on this relation. Model experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 are used to separately study the responses to increases in sulfate, non-sulfate and all anthropogenic aerosols. A cloud brightening on the month-to-month scale due to variability in the background aerosol is found to dominate even in the cases where anthropogenic aerosols are added. The aerosol composition is of importance for this cloud brightening, that is thereby region dependent. There is indication that absorbing aerosols to some extent counteract the cloud brightening but scene darkening with increasing aerosol burden is generally not supported, even in regions where absorbing aerosols dominate. Month-to-month cloud albedo variability also confirms the importance of liquid water content for cloud albedo. Regional, monthly mean cloud albedo is found to increase with the addition of anthropogenic aerosols and more so with sulfate than non-sulfate. Changes in cloud albedo between experiments are related to changes in cloud water content as well as droplet size distribution changes, so that models with large increases in liquid water path and/or cloud droplet number show large cloud albedo increases with increasing aerosol. However, no clear relation between model sensitivities to aerosol variations on the month-to-month scale and changes in cloud albedo due to changed aerosol burden is found.

  6. Change of the Asian dust source region deduced from the composition of anthropogenic radionuclides in surface soil in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Igarashi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent climate change, especially during the 2000s, may be the primary reason for the expansion of the Asian dust source region. The change in the dust source region was investigated by examining anthropogenic radionuclides contained in surface soil samples from Mongolia. Surface soil was globally labeled by radioactive fallout from nuclear testing during the late 1950s and early 1960s, but there are no current direct sources for anthropogenic radionuclides in the air (before the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in 2011. Radionuclides in the atmosphere are therefore carried mainly by wind-blown dust from surface soil, that is, aeolian dust. Asian dust carries traces of 90Sr, 137Cs, and other anthropogenic radionuclides; the heaviest deposition occurs in spring and has been recorded in Japan since the early 1990s. The composition of anthropogenic radionuclides in atmospheric depositions would be affected by a change in the dust source. Previous studies of atmospheric deposition at long-term monitoring sites (e.g. in Tsukuba, Japan have detected changes in the 137Cs/90Sr ratio and in the specific activity of the radionuclides. These changes in the composition of observed atmospheric depositions are supposed to reflect changes in the climatic conditions of the dust source region. To investigate this dust source change, we conducted a field survey of radionuclides (90Sr and 137Cs in surface soil samples in September 2007 in the eastern and southern regions of Mongolia, where dust storms have occurred more frequently since 2000. The specific activities of both radionuclides as well as the 137Cs/90Sr ratio in the surface soil were well correlated with annual average precipitation in the Mongolian desert-steppe zone. Higher specific activities and a higher 137Cs/90Sr ratio were found in grassland regions that experienced greater

  7. Caspian Sea water balance and dynamics studies using anthropogenic radionuclides: Implications for environmental changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oregioni, B.; Gastaud, J.; Pham, M.K.; Povinec, P.P.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Environmental changes in the Caspian Sea have recently become of great interest in connection with fluctuations in sea level changes. Radioactive and stable isotopes have been used as powerful tracers to investigate water balance and dynamics and have contributed significantly to understanding climatically driven environmental changes in the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea is the world largest inland water body with a surface area of about 386000 km 2 and a volume of about 67000 km 3 , located in a large continental depression about 28 m below sea level. With no surface outlet, the Caspian Sea is particularly sensitive to climatic variations. The drainage area of the Caspian Sea is approximately 3.7 million square kilometers. The Volga, Ural and Terek empty into the North Caspian, with their combined annual flow accounting for 88% of all water entering the sea. The Sulak, Samur, Kura and a number of small rivers contribute about 7% of the inflow, the remainder comes from the rivers of the Iranian shore. The Caspian Sea is divided into three basins with approximately the same surface. The North Caspian Basin, maximum depth 15 m, average depth 5 m, contains 1% of the total water. The Middle Caspian (or Central) Basin has a maximum depth of 800 m and contains 22% of the total water. The South Caspian Basin, maximum depth 1024 m, average depth 330 m, contains 77% of the total Caspian Sea water. Recently there have been concerns over the environmental conditions of the Caspian Sea, especially over observed sea level changes, which have had a strong impact on the region. Anthropogenic radionuclides like 90 Sr, 137 Cs and 239 , 240 Pu are particularly useful tracers for the investigation of water dynamics. Two research-training cruises were carried out in September 1995 and August-September 1996. At every station, 60-70 liters samples of seawater from different depths were processed for sequential separation of plutonium, cesium and strontium isotopes. This was

  8. Role of regression model selection and station distribution on the estimation of oceanic anthropogenic carbon change by eMLR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Plancherel

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake by monitoring interior dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC concentrations is complicated by the influence of natural variability. The "eMLR method" aims to address this issue by using empirical regression fits of the data instead of the data themselves, inferring the change in anthropogenic carbon in time by difference between predictions generated by the regressions at each time. The advantages of the method are that it provides in principle a means to filter out natural variability, which theoretically becomes the regression residuals, and a way to deal with sparsely and unevenly distributed data. The degree to which these advantages are realized in practice is unclear, however. The ability of the eMLR method to recover the anthropogenic carbon signal is tested here using a global circulation and biogeochemistry model in which the true signal is known. Results show that regression model selection is particularly important when the observational network changes in time. When the observational network is fixed, the likelihood that co-located systematic misfits between the empirical model and the underlying, yet unknown, true model cancel is greater, improving eMLR results. Changing the observational network modifies how the spatio-temporal variance pattern is captured by the respective datasets, resulting in empirical models that are dynamically or regionally inconsistent, leading to systematic errors. In consequence, the use of regression formulae that change in time to represent systematically best-fit models at all times does not guarantee the best estimates of anthropogenic carbon change if the spatial distributions of the stations emphasize hydrographic features differently in time. Other factors, such as a balanced and representative station coverage, vertical continuity of the regression formulae consistent with the hydrographic context and resiliency of the spatial distribution of the residual

  9. Dangerous anthropogenic interference, dangerous climatic change, and harmful climatic change. Non-trivial distinctions with significant policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2007-01-01

    Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) in the climate system. However, some of the recent policy literature has focused on dangerous climatic change (DCC) rather than on DAI. DAI is a set of increases in GHGs concentrations that has a non-negligible possibility of provoking changes in climate that in turn have a non-negligible possibility of causing unacceptable harm, including harm to one or more of ecosystems, food production systems, and sustainable socio-economic systems, whereas DCC is a change of climate that has actually occurred or is assumed to occur and that has a non-negligible possibility of causing unacceptable harm. If the goal of climate policy is to prevent DAI, then the determination of allowable GHG concentrations requires three inputs: the probability distribution function (pdf) for climate sensitivity, the pdf for the temperature change at which significant harm occurs, and the allowed probability ('risk') of incurring harm previously deemed to be unacceptable. If the goal of climate policy is to prevent DCC, then one must know what the correct climate sensitivity is (along with the harm pdf and risk tolerance) in order to determine allowable GHG concentrations. DAI from elevated atmospheric CO2 also arises through its impact on ocean chemistry as the ocean absorbs CO2. The primary chemical impact is a reduction in the degree of supersaturation of ocean water with respect to calcium carbonate, the structural building material for coral and for calcareous phytoplankton at the base of the marine food chain. Here, the probability of significant harm (in particular, impacts violating the subsidiary conditions in Article 2 of the UNFCCC) is computed as a function of the ratio of total GHG radiative forcing to the radiative forcing for a CO2 doubling, using two alternative pdfs for

  10. Ecology of Land Cover Change in Glaciated Tropical Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth R. Young

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical mountains contain unique biological diversity, and are subject to many consequences of global climate change, exasperated by concurrent socioeconomic shifts. Glaciers are in a negative mass balance, exposing substrates to primary succession and altering downslope wetlands and streams. A review of recent trends and future predictions suggests a likely reduction in areas of open habitat for species of high mountains due to greater woody plant cover, accompanied by land use shifts by farmers and pastoralists along the environmental gradients of tropical mountains. Research is needed on the biodiversity and ecosystem consequences of successional change, including the direct effects of retreating glaciers and the indirect consequences of combined social and ecological drivers in lower elevations. Areas in the high mountains that are protected for nature conservation or managed collectively by local communities represent opportunities for integrated research and development approaches that may provide ecological spaces for future species range shifts.

  11. Soil properties as indicators of treeline dynamics in relation to anthropogenic pressure and climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Moscatelli, M. C.; Bonifacio, E.; Chiti, T.; Cudlín, Pavel; Dinca, L.; Gömöryova, E.; Grego, S.; La Porta, N.; Karlinski, L.; Pellis, G.; Rudawska, M.; Squartini, A.; Zhiyanski, M.; Broll, G.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 73, 1-2 (2017), s. 73-84 ISSN 0936-577X Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : ecosystem services * forest resilience * Mountains Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 1.578, year: 2016

  12. Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents

    OpenAIRE

    Renaud, Sabrina; Michaux, Jacques; Schmidt, Daniela N; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre; Mein, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

    2005-01-01

    Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of...

  13. Assessing Ecological Impacts According to Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, S.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Jeong, S. G.; Jin, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Land use patterns have changed by human activities, and it has affected the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, the conversion of forests into other land use has caused environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. The evaluation of species and their habitat can be preferentially considered to prevent or minimize the adverse effects of land use change. The objective of study is identifying the impacts of environmental conditions on forest ecosystems by comparing ecological changes with time series spatial data. Species distribution models were developed for diverse species with presence data and time-series environmental variables, which allowed comparison of the habitat suitability and connectivity. Habitat suitability and connectivity were used to estimate impacts of forest ecosystems due to land use change. Our result suggested that the size and degree of ecological impacts are were different depending on the properties of land use change. The elements and species were greatly affected by the land use change according to the results. This study suggested that a methodology for measuring the interference of land use change in species habitat and connectivity. Furthermore, it will help to conserve and manage forest by identifying priority conservation areas with influence factor and scale.

  14. Dynamic plant ecology: the spectrum of vegetational change in space and time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delcourt, H R; Delcourt, P A; Webb, T III

    1983-01-01

    Different environmental forcing functions influence vegetational patterns and processes over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the micro-scale (1 year to 5 x 10/sup 3/ years, 1 m/sup 2/ to 10/sup 6/m/sup 2/) natural and anthropogenic disturbances affect establishment and succession of species populations. At the macro-scale (5 x 10/sup 3/ years to 10/sup 6/ years and 10/sup 6/m/sup 2/ to 10/sup 12/m/sup 2/) climatic changes influence regional vegetational processes that include migrations of species as well as displacement of ecosystems. Mega-scale phenomena such as plate tectonics, evolution of the biota and development of global patterns of vegetation occur on the time scale of > 10/sup 6/ years and over areas > 10/sup 12/m/sup 2/. Our knowledge of past vegetational changes resulting from Quaternary climatic change can be used to predict biotic responses to future climatic changes such as global warming that may be induced by increased carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/) concentrations in the atmosphere. The time scale for future climatic warming may be much more rapid than that characterizing the early- to mid-Holocene, increasing the probability of rapid turnover in species composition, changes in local and regional dominance of important taxa, displacement of species ranges and local extinction of species. Integration of ecological and paleoecological perspectives on vegetational dynamics is fundamental to understanding and managing the biosphere.

  15. Climate change forces new ecological states in tropical Andean lakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neal Michelutti

    Full Text Available Air temperatures in the tropical Andes have risen at an accelerated rate relative to the global average over recent decades. However, the effects of climate change on Andean lakes, which are vital to sustaining regional biodiversity and serve as an important water resource to local populations, remain largely unknown. Here, we show that recent climate changes have forced alpine lakes of the equatorial Andes towards new ecological and physical states, in close synchrony to the rapid shrinkage of glaciers regionally. Using dated sediment cores from three lakes in the southern Sierra of Ecuador, we record abrupt increases in the planktonic thalassiosiroid diatom Discostella stelligera from trace abundances to dominance within the phytoplankton. This unprecedented shift occurs against the backdrop of rising temperatures, changing atmospheric pressure fields, and declining wind speeds. Ecological restructuring in these lakes is linked to warming and/or enhanced water column stratification. In contrast to seasonally ice-covered Arctic and temperate alpine counterparts, aquatic production has not increased universally with warming, and has even declined in some lakes, possibly because enhanced thermal stability impedes the re-circulation of hypolimnetic nutrients to surface waters. Our results demonstrate that these lakes have already passed important ecological thresholds, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Andean water resources.

  16. Developmental change in social responsibility during adolescence: An ecological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray-Lake, Laura; Syvertsen, Amy K; Flanagan, Constance A

    2016-01-01

    Social responsibility can be defined as a set of prosocial values representing personal commitments to contribute to community and society. Little is known about developmental change-and predictors of that change-in social responsibility during adolescence. The present study used an accelerated longitudinal research design to investigate the developmental trajectory of social responsibility values and ecological assets across family, school, community, and peer settings that predict these values. Data come from a 3-year study of 3,683 U.S. adolescents enrolled in upper-level elementary, middle, and high schools in rural, semiurban, and urban communities. Social responsibility values significantly decreased from age 9 to 16 before leveling off in later adolescence. Family compassion messages and democratic climate, school solidarity, community connectedness, and trusted friendship, positively predicted within-person change in adolescents' social responsibility values. These findings held after accounting for other individual-level and demographic factors and provide support for the role of ecological assets in adolescents' social responsibility development. In addition, fair society beliefs and volunteer experience had positive between- and within-person associations with social responsibility values. The manuscript discusses theoretical and practical implications of the conclusion that declines in ecological assets may partly explain age-related declines in social responsibility values. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Impact of anthropogenic and natural environmental changes on Echinococcus transmission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the People’s Republic of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Echinococcus transmission is known to be affected by various environmental factors, which may be modified by human influence or natural events including global warming. Considerable population growth in the last fifty years in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), has led to dramatic increases in deforestation and modified agricultural practices. In turn, this has resulted in many changes in the habitats for the definitive and intermediate hosts of both Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, which have increased the risks for transmission of both parasites, affecting echinococcosis prevalence and human disease. Ecological environmental changes due to anthropogenic activities and natural events drive Echinococcus transmission and NHAR provides a notable example illustrating how human activity can impact on a parasitic infection of major public health significance. It is very important to continually monitor these environmental (including climatic) factors that drive the distribution of Echinococcus spp. and their impact on transmission to humans because such information is necessary to formulate reliable future public health policy for echinococcosis control programs and to prevent disease spread. PMID:22827890

  18. Impact of anthropogenic and natural environmental changes on Echinococcus transmission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the People’s Republic of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yu

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Echinococcus transmission is known to be affected by various environmental factors, which may be modified by human influence or natural events including global warming. Considerable population growth in the last fifty years in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR, the People’s Republic of China (PRC, has led to dramatic increases in deforestation and modified agricultural practices. In turn, this has resulted in many changes in the habitats for the definitive and intermediate hosts of both Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, which have increased the risks for transmission of both parasites, affecting echinococcosis prevalence and human disease. Ecological environmental changes due to anthropogenic activities and natural events drive Echinococcus transmission and NHAR provides a notable example illustrating how human activity can impact on a parasitic infection of major public health significance. It is very important to continually monitor these environmental (including climatic factors that drive the distribution of Echinococcus spp. and their impact on transmission to humans because such information is necessary to formulate reliable future public health policy for echinococcosis control programs and to prevent disease spread.

  19. Dynamics of change in local physician supply: an ecological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, H Joanna; Begun, James W

    2002-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to employ an ecological framework to identify factors that have an impact on change in local physician supply within the USA. A particular specialty type of patient care physicians in a local market is defined as a physician population. Four physician populations are identified: generalists, medical specialists, surgical specialists, and hospital-based specialists. Based on population ecology theory, the proposed framework explains the growth of a particular physician population by four mechanisms: the intrinsic properties of this physician population; the local market's carrying capacity, which is determined by three environmental dimensions (munificence, concentration, diversity); competition within the same physician population; and interdependence between different physician populations. Data at the level of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) were compiled from the US Area Resources File, the American Hospital Association Annual Surveys of Hospitals, the American Medical Association Census of Medical Groups, the InterStudy National HMO Census, and the US County Business Patterns. Changes in the number and percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population from 1985 to 1994 were regressed, respectively, on 1985-94 changes in the explanatory variables as well as their levels in 1985. The results indicate that the population ecology framework is useful in explaining dynamics of change in the local physician workforce. Variables measuring the three environmental dimensions were found to have significant, and in some cases, differential effects on change in the size of different specialty populations. For example, both hospital consolidation and managed care penetration showed significant positive eflects on growth of the generalist population but suppressing effects on growth of the specialist population. The percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population in 1985 was negatively related to change in the size

  20. Integrating scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacoby, H.D.; Yang, Z.

    1994-01-01

    The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is conducting research on methods for integrating the science of potential global change with economic analysis of litigation policies and quantification of economic and environmental impacts. The paper describes this work, with a focus on the way that research within the various contributing disciplines, and the design of their associated models, are influenced by the process of inclusion in an integrated framework for policy analysis. The results should contribute new insight into the relative importance of key feedbacks within the economy-climate-ecology system

  1. Climate change and nesting behaviour in vertebrates: a review of the ecological threats and potential for adaptive responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainwaring, Mark C; Barber, Iain; Deeming, Denis C; Pike, David A; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Hartley, Ian R

    2017-11-01

    Nest building is a taxonomically widespread and diverse trait that allows animals to alter local environments to create optimal conditions for offspring development. However, there is growing evidence that climate change is adversely affecting nest-building in animals directly, for example via sea-level rises that flood nests, reduced availability of building materials, and suboptimal sex allocation in species exhibiting temperature-dependent sex determination. Climate change is also affecting nesting species indirectly, via range shifts into suboptimal nesting areas, reduced quality of nest-building environments, and changes in interactions with nest predators and parasites. The ability of animals to adapt to sustained and rapid environmental change is crucial for the long-term persistence of many species. Many animals are known to be capable of adjusting nesting behaviour adaptively across environmental gradients and in line with seasonal changes, and this existing plasticity potentially facilitates adaptation to anthropogenic climate change. However, whilst alterations in nesting phenology, site selection and design may facilitate short-term adaptations, the ability of nest-building animals to adapt over longer timescales is likely to be influenced by the heritable basis of such behaviour. We urgently need to understand how the behaviour and ecology of nest-building in animals is affected by climate change, and particularly how altered patterns of nesting behaviour affect individual fitness and population persistence. We begin our review by summarising how predictable variation in environmental conditions influences nest-building animals, before highlighting the ecological threats facing nest-building animals experiencing anthropogenic climate change and examining the potential for changes in nest location and/or design to provide adaptive short- and long-term responses to changing environmental conditions. We end by identifying areas that we believe warrant the

  2. Historical changes in northeastern US bee pollinators related to shared ecological traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartomeus, Ignasi; Ascher, John S; Gibbs, Jason; Danforth, Bryan N; Wagner, David L; Hedtke, Shannon M; Winfree, Rachael

    2013-03-19

    Pollinators such as bees are essential to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. However, despite concerns about a global pollinator crisis, long-term data on the status of bee species are limited. We present a long-term study of relative rates of change for an entire regional bee fauna in the northeastern United States, based on >30,000 museum records representing 438 species. Over a 140-y period, aggregate native species richness weakly decreased, but richness declines were significant only for the genus Bombus. Of 187 native species analyzed individually, only three declined steeply, all of these in the genus Bombus. However, there were large shifts in community composition, as indicated by 56% of species showing significant changes in relative abundance over time. Traits associated with a declining relative abundance include small dietary and phenological breadth and large body size. In addition, species with lower latitudinal range boundaries are increasing in relative abundance, a finding that may represent a response to climate change. We show that despite marked increases in human population density and large changes in anthropogenic land use, aggregate native species richness declines were modest outside of the genus Bombus. At the same time, we find that certain ecological traits are associated with declines in relative abundance. These results should help target conservation efforts focused on maintaining native bee abundance and diversity and therefore the important ecosystems services that they provide.

  3. The river Ganga of northern India: an appraisal of its geomorphic and ecological changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, S K; Bhattacharya, A; Bhattacharya, B

    2003-01-01

    The Ganga is the most important perennial river originating from Gangotri in the snow-bound Himalayas about 3,900 m above mean sea level. Gorging a distance of about 220 km in the Himalayas, it enters the plain at Hardwar and after meandering and braiding over a distance of about 2,525 km through the Indo-Gangetic plains, ultimately joins the Bay of Bengal. The course of this river has been changed due to: (i) subsurface geotectonic movement leading to change in slope of the deltaic plain and subsidence of the Bengal basin; (ii) changing pattern of water discharge with time; (iii) variations in sediment load. The environment of Ganga basin is also deteriorating with time due to severe natural episodes of periodic floods and storms as well as anthropogenic factors such as population growth, deforestation, agricultural activities, urbanisation, fertiliser and fossil fuel consumption and construction activities such as dams and bridges. All these have inconceivable adverse impacts on the health and natural regeneration capacity of the river basin. The presence of micropollutants in water and sediments of this river turns the system into being unsustainable to the biota. The present study synthesises the available information on the changes of its geological, geomorphological and ecological aspects and suggests some remedial measures to be adopted now and in future.

  4. Simulating ecological changes caused by marine energy devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuchert, Pia; Elsaesser, Bjoern; Pritchard, Daniel; Kregting, Louise

    2015-04-01

    Marine renewable energy from wave and tidal technology has the potential to contribute significantly globally to energy security for future generations. However common to both tidal and wave energy extraction systems is concern regarding the potential environmental consequences of the deployment of the technology as environmental and ecological effects are so far poorly understood. Ecological surveys and studies to investigate the environmental impacts are time consuming and costly and are generally reactive; a more efficient approach is to develop 2 and 3D linked hydrodynamic-ecological modelling which has the potential to be proactive and to allow forecasting of the effects of array installation. The objective of the study was to explore tools which can help model and evaluate possible far- and near field changes in the environment and ecosystem caused by the introduction of arrays of marine energy devices. Using the commercial software, MIKE by DHI, we can predict and model possible changes in the ecosystem. MIKE21 and ECOLab modelling software provide the opportunity to couple high level hydrodynamic models with process based ecological models and/or agent based models (ABM). The flow solutions of the model were determined in an idealised tidal basin with the dimensions similar to that of Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen. In the first instance a simple process oriented ecological NPZD model was developed which are used to model marine and freshwater systems describing four state variables, Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton and Detritus. The ecological model was run and evaluated under two hydrodynamic scenarios of the idealised basin. This included no tidal turbines (control) and an array of 55 turbines, an extreme scenario. Whilst an array of turbines has an effect on the hydrodynamics of the Lough, it is unlikely to see an extreme effect on the NPZD model

  5. Camouflage through colour change: mechanisms, adaptive value and ecological significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Rafael C; Flores, Augusto A V; Stevens, Martin

    2017-07-05

    Animals from a wide range of taxonomic groups are capable of colour change, of which camouflage is one of the main functions. A considerable amount of past work on this subject has investigated species capable of extremely rapid colour change (in seconds). However, relatively slow colour change (over hours, days, weeks and months), as well as changes arising via developmental plasticity are probably more common than rapid changes, yet less studied. We discuss three key areas of colour change and camouflage. First, we review the mechanisms underpinning colour change and developmental plasticity for camouflage, including cellular processes, visual feedback, hormonal control and dietary factors. Second, we discuss the adaptive value of colour change for camouflage, including the use of different camouflage types. Third, we discuss the evolutionary-ecological implications of colour change for concealment, including what it can tell us about intraspecific colour diversity, morph-specific strategies, and matching to different environments and microhabitats. Throughout, we discuss key unresolved questions and present directions for future work, and highlight how colour change facilitates camouflage among habitats and arises when animals are faced with environmental changes occurring over a range of spatial and temporal scales.This article is part of the themed issue 'Animal coloration: production, perception, function and application'. © 2017 The Authors.

  6. Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

    2014-12-01

    The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

  7. Application of Satellite Remote Sensing to Identify Climatic and Anthropogenic Changes Related to Water and Health Conditions in Emerging Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.

    2014-12-01

    By 2050, more than 70% of the world's population is expected to be living in a city. In many of the urbanizing regions in Asia and Africa, most new development is taking place without adequate urban or regional planning, and a majority population is crowded into densely populated unplanned settlements, also known as slums. During the same period, precipitation and temperature patterns are likely to see significant changes in many of these regions while coastal megacities will have to accommodate sea-level rise in their ecosystems. The rapid increase in population is usually observed in fringes of the urban sprawl without adequate water or sanitation facilities or access to other municipal amenities (such as utilities, healthcare, and education). Collectively, these issues make the ever increasing slum dwellers in emerging megacities significantly vulnerable to a combination of climatic and anthropogenic threats. However, how the growth of unplanned urban and peri-urban sprawl and simultaneous change in climatic patterns have impacted public health in the emerging megacities remain largely unexplored due to lack of readily available and usable data. We employ a number of Remote Sensing products (GRACE, LANDSAT, MODIS) to bridge above knowledge gaps and to identify relevant hydrologic and anthropogenic changes in emerging megacities that are most vulnerable due to the climate-water-health nexus. We explore one of the largest and the fastest growing megacities in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh - on identifying and investigating the changes in the water environment and growth of slum areas, and impact on water services and health outcomes. The hydroclimatology of South Asia is highly seasonal and the asymmetric availability of water affects vast areas of Bangladesh differently in space and time, exposing the population of Dhaka region to both droughts and floods and periodic spring-fall outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera and rotavirus. This research

  8. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce

  9. Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Naomi M; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J W; Erwin, Terry L; Feldpausch, Ted R; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R

    2016-01-19

    Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

  10. Celtic field agriculture and Early Anthropogenic Environmental change in the Meuse-Demer-Scheldt region, NW Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Sanden, Germaine; Kluiving, Sjoerd; Roymans, Nico

    2016-04-01

    The field of Archaeology remains focused on historical issues while underexploring its potential contribution on currently existing societal problems, e.g. climate change. The aim of this paper is to show the relevance of archeological studies for the research of the 'human species as a significant moving agent' in terms of the changing natural environment during a much earlier time frame. This research is based on the study area of the Meuse-Demer-Scheldt region in the Netherlands and Belgium and exhibits the period from the Late Bronze Age to the Early Roman period. This period is characterized by the widespread introduction and use of an agricultural system, often referred to as the Celtic Field system that served as one of the most modifying systems in terms of anthropogenic-environmental change during this period. Emphasis in this research is given to results generated by the use of the remote sensing technology, LiDAR. New information is reported considering a correlation between singular field size and the overall surface of the agricultural complexes and secondly, the presentation of newly identified Celtic field systems in the Meuse-Demer-Scheldt region are presented. The study of the dynamics of the Celtic Field agricultural system provides evidence for a significant anthropogenic footprint on the natural environment due to land cover dominance, soil degeneration, increased soil acidification and forest clearance. Soil exhaustion forced the inhabitants to re-establish their relationship with the landscape in terms of fundamental changes in the habitation pattern and the agrarian exploitations of the land.

  11. Estimation of water storage changes in small endorheic lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (Northern Kazakhstan, Central Asia); the effect of climate change and anthropogenic influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yapiyev, Vadim; Sagintayev, Zhanay; Verhoef, Anne; Samarkhanov, Kanat; Jumassultanova, Saltanat

    2017-04-01

    Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. It has been observed in recent decades that water-limited steppe regions of Central Asia are among ecosystems found to exhibit enhanced responses to climate variability. In fact, the largest share of worldwide net loss of permanent water extent is geographically concentrated in the Central Asia and Middle East regions attributed to both climate variability/change and human activities impacts. We used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and high resolution Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia, for the period 2000-2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, hydrometeorological network observations as well as regional climate model projections we evaluate the impacts of past thirty years and future climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. The anthropogenic water consumption was estimated based on data collected at a local water supply company and regulation authorities. One the one hand historical in-situ observations and future climate projections do not show a significant change in precipitation in BNNP. On the other hand both observations and the model demonstrate steadily rising air temperatures in the area. It is concluded that the long-term decline in water levels for most of these lakes can be largely attributed to climate change (but only via changes in air temperature, causing evaporation to exceed precipitation) and not to direct anthropogenic influences such as increased water withdrawals. In addition, the two largest lakes, showing the highest historical water level decline, do not have sufficient water drainage basin area to sustain water levels under increased evaporation rates.

  12. Variations on seepage water geochemistry induced by natural and anthropogenic microclimatic changes: Implications for the speleothems growth conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Cortes, A.; Sanchez-Moral, S.; Canaveras, J. C.; Cuevas, J.; Cuezva, S.; Andreu, J. M.; Abella, R.

    2009-04-01

    During an annual cycle the effect of microclimatic changes (natural and anthropogenic origin) on the geochemical characteristics of seepage water and mineral precipitation rates was analyzed, for two karstic caves under opposing environmental stability and energy exchange with exterior. On the one hand Castañar cave (Caceres, Spain), an extremely controlled show cave with limited visitation showing a minimum exchange rate of energy with the outer atmosphere and, secondly, Canelobre cave (Alicante, Spain), a widely visited cave where the anthropogenic impact generates both high-speed and high-energy environmental changes. Microclimatic variations play a key role in CO2-dessgasing caused by the imbalance of pCO2 between the karstic water and the cave air, favoring the slow processes of mineral precipitation. Thus, a pCO2-range of seepage water have been detected for each cave (from 10-2.30/-2.35 to 10-2.47/-2.52 bar for Castañar cave, and from 10-2.8/-2.85 to 10-2.95/-3.0 bar for Canelobre cave) where the mineral oversaturation prevails, determining the type and rate of mineral precipitation in each cave. Finally, it analyzes how the changes on the oversaturation/ precipitation states are controlled by microclimatic variations, such as: 1) natural underground air renewal through the porous system of upper soil and the network of host-rock fissures (isolating membranes), or else through the cave entrance, 2) cumulative disruptions in the pCO2 levels of cave air due to the presence of visitors, and 3) forced ventilation of the subterranean atmosphere due to the uncontrolled opening of cave entrances. The obtained results reinforce the significance of the microclimatic fluctuations on short time scales in the dynamic and evolution of the subterranean karst system, in terms of rates of mineral precipitation and growth of speleothems. Likewise the interpretations are useful in order to ensure the constant climate required for the conservation of caves.

  13. Soil Organic Matter Responses to Anthropogenic Forest Disturbance and Land Use Change in the Eastern Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Regina Durigan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic forest disturbance and land use change (LUC in the Amazon region is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere in Brazil, due to the carbon (C and nitrogen (N emitted from vegetation clearance. Land use conversion associated with management practices plays a key role in the distribution and origin of C in different soil organic matter (SOM fractions. Here, we show how changing land use systems have influenced soil C and N stocks, SOM physical fractions, and the origin of SOM in the Santarém region of the eastern Brazilian Amazon. Soil C and N stocks were calculated for the surface layer of 0–30 cm. Anthropogenic disturbances to the standing forest, such as selective logging and wildfires, led to significant declines in soil C and N stocks. However, in the long-term, the conversion of the Amazon forest to pasture did not have a noticeable effect on soil C and N stocks, presumably because of additional inputs from pasture grasses. However, the conversion to cropland did lead to reductions in soil C and N content. According to the physical fractionation of SOM, LUC altered SOM quality, but silt and clay remained the combined fraction that contributed the most to soil C storage. Our results emphasize the importance of implementing more sustainable forest management systems, whilst also calling further attention to the need for fire monitoring systems, helping to ensure the resilience of C and N stocks and sequestration in forest soils; thereby contributing towards urgently needed ongoing efforts to mitigate climate change.

  14. Change: Threat or opportunity for human progress? V. 5. Ecological change: Environment, development and poverty linkages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirdar, U.

    1992-01-01

    This volume consists of 18 articles that examine the changing ecological balance of the world and its effect on human prosperity. The problems caused by global warning, climate change and environmental degradation will have serious effects in both the short and the long term. Two of the 18 articles fall within INIS scope: these have been indexed separately. Tabs

  15. Change: Threat or opportunity for human progress V. 5. Ecological change: Environment, development and poverty linkages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirdar, U [ed.

    1992-01-01

    This volume consists of 18 articles that examine the changing ecological balance of the world and its effect on human prosperity. The problems caused by global warning, climate change and environmental degradation will have serious effects in both the short and the long term. Two of the 18 articles fall within INIS scope: these have been indexed separately. Tabs.

  16. Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Wetland and Agriculture in the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Influences of the increasing pressure of climate change and anthropogenic activities on wetlands ecosystems and agriculture are significant around the world. This paper assessed the spatiotemporal land use and land cover changes (LULCC, especially for conversion from marshland to other LULC types (e.g., croplands over the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain (SNP and SJP, northeast China, during the past 35 years (1980–2015. The relative role of human activities and climatic changes in terms of their impacts on wetlands and agriculture dynamics were quantitatively distinguished and evaluated in different periods based on a seven-stage LULC dataset. Our results indicated that human activities, such as population expansion and socioeconomic development, and institutional policies related to wetlands and agriculture were the main driving forces for LULCC of the SJP and SNP during the past decades, while increasing contributions of climatic changes were also found. Furthermore, as few studies have identified which geographic regions are most at risk, how the future climate changes will spatially and temporally impact wetlands and agriculture, i.e., the suitability of wetlands and agriculture distributions under different future climate change scenarios, were predicted and analyzed using a habitat distribution model (Maxent at the pixel-scale. The present findings can provide valuable references for policy makers on regional sustainability for food security, water resource rational management, agricultural planning and wetland protection as well as restoration of the region.

  17. Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

    2014-12-01

    The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (Hdecreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the

  18. Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers joint construction of climate perceptions

    OpenAIRE

    Asplund, Therese

    2016-01-01

    While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relat...

  19. Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Whetton, Peter H.; Jones, Richard G.

    2001-01-01

    We analyse temperature and precipitation changes for the late decades of the 21st century (with respect to present day conditions) over 23 land regions of the world from 18 recent transient, climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The analysis...... involves two different forcing scenarios and nine models, and it focuses on model agreement in the simulated regional changes for the summer and winter seasons. While to date very few conclusions have been presented on regional climatic changes, mostly limited to some broad latitudinal bands, our analysis...

  20. Research regarding the changes that occur in the structure of benthic macro invertebrates communities as a result of anthropogenic activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca-Andreea Marin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available An important role in the monitoring of the water quality is represented by the benthic macro invertebrates. They are a key component in the transfer of matter and energy in the aquatic ecosystems. In May 2015, 20 quantitative samples of benthic sample were collected at different seasons in the Bega River water. Samples were collected from the upstream, middle and downstream of Timisoara city. The aim of this paper is to identify the changes that occur in the structure of benthic macro invertebrates communities due to anthropogenic activities. Once the identification of  saprobionte organisms has done, it have been performed the density, abundance and frequency of the sample. Based on these values, we can say that the upstream segment waters falls into the category of superior quality compared to the waters of the central segment, especially in the downstream segment.

  1. Changes in the Essential Oil Composition in the Needles of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L. Under Anthropogenic Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asta Judzentiene

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Unfavorable anthropogenic factors, such as air pollution, lead to biochemical responses in trees. Changes in the amounts of secondary metabolites may be early indicators of invisible injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate composition of the essential oils in the needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. growing in the areas affected by pollutant emissions of main factories in Lithuania: a nitrogen fertilizer factory (NFF, a cement factory (CF, and an oil refinery (OR. Totally, 14 pine stands were examined along transects from the factories (July 2005. Volatile components of the needles were extracted and analyzed by GC and GC/MS. Over 70 components of the essential oils were identified in current-year and 1-year-old needles.

  2. Fluctuations in coral health of four common inshore reef corals in response to seasonal and anthropogenic changes in water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Nicola K; Tay, Jason K L; Low, Jeffrey; Larson, Ole; Todd, Peter A

    2015-04-01

    Environmental drivers of coral condition (maximum quantum yield, symbiont density, chlorophyll a content and coral skeletal growth rates) were assessed in the equatorial inshore coastal waters of Singapore, where the amplitude of seasonal variation is low, but anthropogenic influence is relatively high. Water quality variables (sediments, nutrients, trace metals, temperature, light) explained between 52 and 83% of the variation in coral condition, with sediments and light availability as key drivers of foliose corals (Merulina ampliata, Pachyseris speciosa), and temperature exerting a greater influence on a branching coral (Pocillopora damicornis). Seasonal reductions in water quality led to high chlorophyll a concentrations and maximum quantum yields in corals, but low growth rates. These marginal coral communities are potentially vulnerable to climate change, hence, we propose water quality thresholds for coral growth with the aim of mitigating both local and global environmental impacts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  4. Holocene environmental and parasequence development of the St. Jones Estuary, Delaware (USA): Foraminiferal proxies of natural climatic and anthropogenic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leorri, E.; Martin, R.; McLaughlin, P.

    2006-01-01

    The benthic foraminiferal record of marshes located along western Delaware Bay (St. Jones Estuary, USA) reflects the response of estuaries to sea-level and paleoclimate change during the Holocene. System tracts are recognized and within them parasequences based on sedimentological and foraminiferal assemblages identification. The parasequences defined by foraminiferal assemblages appear correlative with rapid Holocene climate changes that are of worldwide significance: 6000-5000, 4200-3800, 3500-2500, 1200-1000, and 600??cal years BP. Following postglacial sea-level rise, modern subestuaries and marshes in the region began to develop between 6000 and 4000??years BP, depending on their proximity to the mouth of Delaware Bay and coastal geomorphology. Initial sediments were fluvial in origin, with freshwater marshes established around 4000??years BP. The subsequent sea-level transgression occurred sufficiently slowly that freshwater marshes alternated with salt marshes at the same sites to around 3000??years BP. Locally another two transgressions are identified at 1800 and 1000??years BP respectively. Marine influence increased in the estuaries until 600??years BP (Little Ice Age), when regression occurred. Sea-level began to rise again during the mid-19th Century at the end of the Little Ice Age, when marshes became established. The presence of a sand lens in the upper and middle estuary and the reduction in the number of tests in the top samples in cores from the same area also suggest an anthropogenic influence. The estuary infill resulted in a sharp transgressive sequence, represented by salt marsh foraminiferal assemblages in the upper part of the cores. The increase in marsh foraminifera in both areas suggests an increase in marine influence that might be due to the transgression beginning at the end of the Little Ice Age about 150-180??years ago coupled with anthropogenic straightening of the channel in 1913. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

    2018-05-01

    Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

  6. Influence of lag effect, soil release, and climate change on watershed anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine export dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dingjiang; Huang, Hong; Hu, Minpeng; Dahlgren, Randy A

    2014-05-20

    This study demonstrates the importance of the nitrogen-leaching lag effect, soil nitrogen release, and climate change on anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and riverine total nitrogen (TN) export dynamics using a 30-yr record for the Yongan River watershed in eastern China. Cross-correlation analysis indicated a 7-yr, 5-yr, and 4-yr lag time in riverine TN export in response to changes in NANI, temperature, and drained agricultural land area, respectively. Enhanced by warmer temperature and improved agricultural drainage, the upper 20 cm of agricultural soils released 270 kg N ha(-1) between 1980 and 2009. Climate change also increased the fractional export of NANI to river. An empirical model (R(2) = 0.96) for annual riverine TN flux incorporating these influencing factors estimated 35%, 41%, and 24% of riverine TN flux originated from the soil N pool, NANI, and background N sources, respectively. The model forecasted an increase of 45%, 25%, and 6% and a decrease of 13% in riverine TN flux from 2010 to 2030 under continued development, climate change, status-quo, and tackling scenarios, respectively. The lag effect, soil N release, and climate change delay riverine TN export reductions with respect to decreases in NANI and should be considered in developing and evaluating N management measures.

  7. Social-ecological system framework: initial changes and continuing challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael D. McGinnis

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The social-ecological system (SES framework investigated in this special issue enables researchers from diverse disciplinary backgrounds working on different resource sectors in disparate geographic areas, biophysical conditions, and temporal domains to share a common vocabulary for the construction and testing of alternative theories and models that determine which influences on processes and outcomes are especially critical in specific empirical settings. We summarize changes that have been made to this framework and discuss a few remaining ambiguities in its formulation. Specifically, we offer a tentative rearrangement of the list of relevant attributes of governance systems and discuss other ways to make this framework applicable to policy settings beyond natural resource settings. The SES framework will continue to change as more researchers apply it to additional contexts; the main purpose of this article is to delineate the version that served as the basis for the theoretical innovations and empirical analyses detailed in other contributions to this special issue.

  8. Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Brown, Christopher J.; O'Connor, Mary I.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Schoeman, David S.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Richardson, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses

  9. Predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  10. Behavioral Ecology of Narwhals in a Changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    impacted by increasing anthropogenic activities in Baffin Bay (increasing shipping, future transit through the NW Passage, seismic exploration, increasing...whistles being missed). Second, we utlilized a custom made 16 channel vertical array (with a laptop and pre-amplifier inside an insulated aluminium...management considering ongoing and expected significant increases in anthropogenic sound (e.g., seismic exploration, shipping) in the Arctic. The

  11. Changing tides: ecological and historical perspectives on fish cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, B Wren; Braithwaite, Victoria A

    2015-01-01

    The capacity for specialization and radiation make fish an excellent group in which to investigate the depth and variety of animal cognition. Even though early observations of fish using tools predates the discovery of tool use in chimpanzees, fish cognition has historically been somewhat overlooked. However, a recent surge of interest is now providing a wealth of material on which to draw examples, and this has required a selective approach to choosing the research described below. Our goal is to illustrate the necessity for basing cognitive investigations on the ecological and evolutionary context of the species at hand. We also seek to illustrate the importance of ecology and the environment in honing a range of sensory systems that allow fish to glean information and support informed decision-making. The various environments and challenges with which fish interact require equally varied cognitive skills, and the solutions that fish have developed are truly impressive. Similarly, we illustrate how common ecological problems will frequently produce common cognitive solutions. Below, we focus on four topics: spatial learning and memory, avoiding predators and catching prey, communication, and innovation. These are used to illustrate how both simple and sophisticated cognitive processes underpin much of the adaptive behavioral flexibility exhibited throughout fish phylogeny. Never before has the field had such a wide array of interdisciplinary techniques available to access both cognitive and mechanistic processes underpinning fish behavior. This capacity comes at a critical time to predict and manage fish populations in an era of unprecedented global change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Morphological changes of the lichens in anthropogenic modified habitats in Yuzhno‑Sakhalinsk City suburbs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander K. Ezhkin

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Main morphological changes and damage of epiphytic lichens (Phaeophyscia hirtuosa, Flavopunctelia soredica, Parmelia fertilis, Evernia mesomorpha, Lobaria quercizans and L. pulmonaria of different sensitivity groups are discussed.

  13. Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Henson

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR. We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (~20–30 years. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

  14. Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezér, Martin A

    2016-04-01

    To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley's (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd's (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Anthropogenic changes in environmental conditions of phytocoenoses of medium sized-sized Ukrainian river valleys (based on the example of the River Tyasmyn – a tributary of the Dnieper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Lavrov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The problem of anthropogenic degradation of rivers is usually marked by its multi-sectoral and often international character as well by the large number of sources of environmental threat. Therefore, its solution requires a systematic approach based on transparent and coordinated interagency and international cooperation. The River Dnieper inUkrainehas undergone a remarkable transformation as a result of the construction of a cascade of reservoirs. Anthropogenic damage to the plants and soil that cover its basin have caused damage to the functioning of ecological regimes of theDnieper’s tributaries. Small and medium-sized rivers are dying. In this article, attention is paid to a typical middle-sized (164 km river of theDnieperBasin, the Tyasmyn. Its middle and lower parts are located in the overtransformed Irdyn-Tyasmyn valley. During the last glaciation it formed the central part of the right arm of the ancientDnieper. Regulation of the Tyasmyn runoff, pollution, the creation of theKremenchugreservoir on theDnieper, grazing and recreational load have led to the threat of the river degrading. Therefore, the aim of this article is to characterize the structure of the herbaceous vegetation in the central and lower parts of the Tyasmyn valley and assess the level of its dependence on anthropogenic changes in the conditions of the ecotypes. The methods used are: retrospective and system analysis, comparative ecology (ecological profile or transect, botanic methods, phytoindication, the mapping method and mathematical statistics. The features of changes in environmental conditions of ecotypes of the river valley have been shown through systematic, biomorphological, ecomorphic structure of the herbaceous cover, the ratio of ecological groups and changes in types of ecological strategy of species, phytodiversity. We found 89 species of vascular plants. The most diverse families were Asteraceae, Poaceae and Lamiaceae. The biomorphological range of

  16. Global albedo change and radiative cooling from anthropogenic land cover change, 1700 to 2005 based on MODIS, land use harmonization, radiative kernels, and reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, Bardan; Williams, Christopher A.; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Wang, Zhuosen; Schaaf, Crystal; He, Tao

    2014-12-01

    Widespread anthropogenic land cover change over the last five centuries has influenced the global climate system through both biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Models indicate that warming from carbon emissions associated with land cover conversion has been partially offset by cooling from elevated albedo, but considerable uncertainty remains partly because of uncertainty in model treatments of albedo. This study incorporates a new spatially and temporally explicit, land cover specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product) to provide more precise, observationally derived estimates of albedo impacts from anthropogenic land cover change with a complete range of data set specific uncertainty. The mean annual global albedo increase due to land cover change during 1700-2005 was estimated as 0.00106 ± 0.00008 (mean ± standard deviation), mainly driven by snow exposure due to land cover transitions from natural vegetation to agriculture. This translates to a top-of-atmosphere radiative cooling of -0.15 ± 0.1 W m-2 (mean ± standard deviation). Our estimate was in the middle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report range of -0.05 to -0.25 W m-2 and incorporates variability in albedo within land cover classes.

  17. Mitigating cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems impacted by climate change and anthropogenic nutrients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paerl, Hans W; Gardner, Wayne S; Havens, Karl E; Joyner, Alan R; McCarthy, Mark J; Newell, Silvia E; Qin, Boqiang; Scott, J Thad

    2016-04-01

    Mitigating the global expansion of cyanobacterial harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) is a major challenge facing researchers and resource managers. A variety of traditional (e.g., nutrient load reduction) and experimental (e.g., artificial mixing and flushing, omnivorous fish removal) approaches have been used to reduce bloom occurrences. Managers now face the additional effects of climate change on watershed hydrologic and nutrient loading dynamics, lake and estuary temperature, mixing regime, internal nutrient dynamics, and other factors. Those changes favor CyanoHABs over other phytoplankton and could influence the efficacy of control measures. Virtually all mitigation strategies are influenced by climate changes, which may require setting new nutrient input reduction targets and establishing nutrient-bloom thresholds for impacted waters. Physical-forcing mitigation techniques, such as flushing and artificial mixing, will need adjustments to deal with the ramifications of climate change. Here, we examine the suite of current mitigation strategies and the potential options for adapting and optimizing them in a world facing increasing human population pressure and climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Impact of climate change and anthropogenic pressure on the water resources of India: challenges in management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Shadananan Nair

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Freshwater resources of India are getting fast degraded and depleted from the changing climate and pressure of fast rising population. Changing intensity and seasonality of rainfall affect quantity and quality of water. Most of the rivers are polluted far above safety limits from the untreated domestic, industrial and agricultural effluents. Changes in the intensity, frequency and tracks of storms salinate coastal aquifers. Aquifers are also under the threat from rising sea level. Groundwater in urban limits and industrial zones are far beyond safety limits. Large-scale destruction of wetlands for industries and residential complexes has affected the quality of surface and groundwater resources in most parts of India. Measures to maintain food security and the new developments schemes such as river linking will further deteriorate the water resources. Falling water availability leads to serious health issues and various socio-economic issues. India needs urgent and appropriate adaptation strategies in the water sector.

  19. Impact of climate change and anthropogenic pressure on the water resources of India: challenges in management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadananan Nair, K.

    2016-10-01

    Freshwater resources of India are getting fast degraded and depleted from the changing climate and pressure of fast rising population. Changing intensity and seasonality of rainfall affect quantity and quality of water. Most of the rivers are polluted far above safety limits from the untreated domestic, industrial and agricultural effluents. Changes in the intensity, frequency and tracks of storms salinate coastal aquifers. Aquifers are also under the threat from rising sea level. Groundwater in urban limits and industrial zones are far beyond safety limits. Large-scale destruction of wetlands for industries and residential complexes has affected the quality of surface and groundwater resources in most parts of India. Measures to maintain food security and the new developments schemes such as river linking will further deteriorate the water resources. Falling water availability leads to serious health issues and various socio-economic issues. India needs urgent and appropriate adaptation strategies in the water sector.

  20. Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ternjej, Ivancica; Mihaljevic, Zlatko

    2017-10-01

    Ecology is a science that studies the mutual interactions between organisms and their environment. The fundamental subject of interest in ecology is the individual. Topics of interest to ecologists include the diversity, distribution and number of particular organisms, as well as cooperation and competition between organisms, both within and among ecosystems. Today, ecology is a multidisciplinary science. This is particularly true when the subject of interest is the ecosystem or biosphere, which requires the knowledge and input of biologists, chemists, physicists, geologists, geographists, climatologists, hydrologists and many other experts. Ecology is applied in a science of restoration, repairing disturbed sites through human intervention, in natural resource management, and in environmental impact assessments.

  1. Long term prospective of the Seine River system: Confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ducharne, A.; Baubion, C.; Beaudoin, N.; Benoit, M.; Billen, G.; Brisson, N.; Garnier, J.; Kieken, H.; Lebonvallet, S.; Ledoux, E.; Mary, B.; Mignolet, C.; Poux, X.; Sauboua, E.; Schott, C.; Thery, S.; Viennot, P.

    2007-01-01

    To explore the evolution of a human impacted river, the Seine (France), over the 21st century, three driving factors were examined: climate, agriculture, and point source inputs of domestic and industrial origin. Three future scenarios were constructed, by modification of a baseline representative of recent conditions. A climate change scenario, based on simulations by a general circulation model driven by the SRES-A2 scenario of radiative forcing, accounts for an average warming of + 3.3 deg. C over the watershed and marked winter increase and summer decrease in precipitation. To illustrate a possible reduction in nitrate pollution from agricultural origin, a scenario of good agricultural practices was considered, introducing catch crops and a 20% decrease in nitrogen fertilisation. Future point source pollution was estimated following the assumptions embedded in scenario SRES-A2 regarding demographic, economic and technologic changes, leading to reductions of 30 to 75% compared to 2000, depending on the pollutants. Four models, addressing separate components of the river system (agronomical model, hydrogeological model, land surface model and water quality model), were used to analyse the relative impact of these scenarios on water quality, in light of their impact on hydrology and crop production. The first-order driving factor of water quality over the 21st century is the projected reduction of point source pollution, inducing a noticeable decrease in eutrophication and oxygen deficits downstream from Paris. The impact of climate change on these terms is driven by the warming of the water column. It enhances algal growth in spring and the loss factors responsible for phytoplankton mortality in late summer (grazers and viruses). In contrast, increased seasonal contrasts in river discharge have a negligible impact on river water quality, as do the changes in riverine nitrate concentration, which never gets limiting. The latter changes have a similar magnitude

  2. Change of microelemental composition of flood-plain soils under the increase of the anthropogenic impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dmitrakov, L.M.; Dmitrakova, L.K.

    2008-01-01

    Change of technogenic pressure and pedotechnogenic concentration were research for some heavy metals (Mn, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Cr, Cd). They describe the general character of element into the soil and the risk of disturbance of geochemical equilibrium in flood-plain soils and depend on regional technogenic loads and combinations of sources of microelements emission.

  3. Anthropogenic radiative forcing of southern African and Southern Hemisphere climate variability and change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available of stratospheric ozone, greenhouse gasses, aerosols and sulphur dioxide, can improve the model's skill to simulate inter-annual variability over southern Africa. The paper secondly explores the role of different radiative forcings of future climate change over...

  4. Answers to arguments of those who doubt of the reality of an anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, Michel

    2010-01-01

    The author aims at answering the arguments stated by climate sceptics who deny the existence of a climate change due to human activities. He addresses and discusses the understanding of climate and its modelling and answers to the following statements made by climate sceptics: climatology is a new science still in its infancy; factors which influence climate remain largely unknown, climate models predict the future by using past observations; the role of water vapour is ignored whereas it is essential; nothing proves that atmosphere composition changes are related to human activities; variations in solar radiations have a more important role than atmosphere composition. In the same way, the author answers statements related to the consequences of climate changes (sea level rise is not significant; ice melt does not result in sea level rise; the Earth has experienced much higher temperatures in the past without major damages), or related to the existence of a recent climate change (the notion of average temperature is meaningless; temperature has been increasing since the beginning of the century), or related to the difference between climatology and meteorology (it's an illusion to predict the climate within a century whereas it's impossible to make weather forecasts for next month; how can we believe in global warming when winter has been long and cold), and finally regarding the IPCC (the scientific consensus of the IPCC reports makes no sense; IPCC is a closed lobby for well paid international public servants; and so on.)

  5. Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T

    2016-06-01

    The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Environmental change on tidal flat induced by anthropogenic effect around west coast of Korean Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yoon-Kyung; Choi, Jong-Kuk; Ryu, Joo-Hyung; Eom, Jinah

    2014-05-01

    Tidal flats are valuable ecosystem by a productive flora and fauna which support large populations of birds, form nursery and feeding areas for coastal fisheries, provide intrinsic values such as aesthetics and education (Costanza et al., 1997; Goodwin et al., 2001). The half of the world's coastal wetlands will submerge during this century in response to sea level rise although salt marsh has a capacity to adjust to sea level rise change. However, tidal flats have been changed because of several coastal construction projects that had not been considered sustainable over the last 30 years in Korean Peninsula. The total area of tidal flats decreased from approximately 2,800 km2 in 1990 to 2,393 km2 in 2005 due to the land reclamations and dredging in South Korea. Many researchers investigated topography, sedimentation changes and local hydrodynamics for this area in the early 1990s. However, they are limited to the temporal and spatial scale because field surveys in the tidal flats are restricted due to the difficulties in accessing. The aim of this study was to examine environmental change in tidal flat in a large scale for long-term based on the remotely sensed data as well as in situ measurements. This study focused on the tidal flat that not only had been affected by reclamations on a large scale such as Ganghwa and Saemangeum but also had been indirectly affected by reclamations such as Hwang-do and Gomso-bay. In this study, changes in morphology and sedimentary facies in tidal flats were estimated. Digital elevation models (DEMs) in early 2000 and 2010 were generated based on the Landsat TM/ETM+ images using a waterline method. Morphological change was estimated based on the differences of DEMs and sedimentary facies was investigated based on the calculation of image-derived PCA coefficient. Results of the morphological change in tidal flats interestingly showed that large amount of areas had been deposited whereas the other areas were eroded. Area with

  7. Soil and periphyton indicators of anthropogenic water-quality changes in a rainfall-driven wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, P.V.

    2011-01-01

    Surface soils and periphyton communities were sampled across an oligotrophic, soft-water wetland to document changes associated with pulsed inputs of nutrient- and mineral-rich canal drainage waters. A gradient of canal-water influence was indicated by the surface-water specific conductance, which ranged between 743 and 963 ??S cm-1 in the canals to as low as 60 ??S cm-1 in the rainfall-driven wetland interior. Changes in soil chemistry and periphyton taxonomic composition across this gradient were described using piecewise regressions models. The greatest increase in soil phosphorus (P) concentration occurred at sites closest to the canal while soil mineral (sulfur, calcium) concentrations increased most rapidly at the lower end of the gradient. Multiple periphyton shifts occurred at the lower end of the gradient and included; (1) a decline in desmids and non-desmid filamentous chlorophytes, and their replacement by a diatom-dominated community; (2) the loss of soft-water diatom indicator species and their replacement by hard-water species. Increased dominance by cyanobacteria and eutrophic diatom indicators occurred closer to the canals. Soil and periphyton changes indicated four zones of increasing canal influence across the wetland: (1) a zone of increasing mineral concentrations where soft-water taxa remained dominant; (2) a transition towards hard-water, oligotrophic diatoms as mineral concentrations increased further; (3) a zone of dominance by these hard-water species; (4) a zone of rapidly increasing P concentrations and dominance by eutrophic taxa. In contrast to conclusions drawn from routine water-chemistry monitoring, measures of chemical and biological change presented here indicate that most of this rainfall-driven peatland receives some influence from canal discharges. These changes are multifaceted and induced by shifts in multiple chemical constituents. ?? 2010 US Government.

  8. Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition alters growth responses of European beech (Fagus sylvativa L.) to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Carsten; Niemeyer, Thomas; Fichtner, Andreas; Jansen, Kirstin; Kunz, Matthias; Maneke, Moritz; von Wehrden, Henrik; Quante, Markus; Walmsley, David; von Oheimb, Goddert; Härdtle, Werner

    2018-02-01

    Global change affects the functioning of forest ecosystems and the services they provide, but little is known about the interactive effects of co-occurring global change drivers on important functions such as tree growth and vitality. In the present study we quantified the interactive (i.e. synergistic or antagonistic) effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) on tree growth (in terms of tree-ring width, TRW), taking forest ecosystems with European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) as an example. We hypothesised that (i) N deposition and climatic variables can evoke non-additive responses of the radial increment of beech trees, and (ii) N loads have the potential to strengthen the trees' sensitivity to climate change. In young stands, we found a synergistic positive effect of N deposition and annual mean temperature on TRW, possibly linked to the alleviation of an N shortage in young stands. In mature stands, however, high N deposition significantly increased the trees' sensitivity to increasing annual mean temperatures (antagonistic effect on TRW), possibly due to increased fine root dieback, decreasing mycorrhizal colonization or shifts in biomass allocation patterns (aboveground vs. belowground). Accordingly, N deposition and climatic variables caused both synergistic and antagonistic effects on the radial increment of beech trees, depending on tree age and stand characteristics. Hence, the nature of interactions could mediate the long-term effects of global change drivers (including N deposition) on forest carbon sequestration. In conclusion, our findings illustrate that interaction processes between climatic variables and N deposition are complex and have the potential to impair growth and performance of European beech. This in turn emphasises the importance of multiple-factor studies to foster an integrated understanding and models aiming at improved projections of tree growth responses to co-occurring drivers

  9. Ecological performance of construction materials subject to ocean climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kay L; Coleman, Melinda A; Connell, Sean D; Russell, Bayden D; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Kelaher, Brendan P

    2017-10-01

    Artificial structures will be increasingly utilized to protect coastal infrastructure from sea-level rise and storms associated with climate change. Although it is well documented that the materials comprising artificial structures influence the composition of organisms that use them as habitat, little is known about how these materials may chemically react with changing seawater conditions, and what effects this will have on associated biota. We investigated the effects of ocean warming, acidification, and type of coastal infrastructure material on algal turfs. Seawater acidification resulted in greater covers of turf, though this effect was counteracted by elevated temperatures. Concrete supported a greater cover of turf than granite or high-density polyethylene (HDPE) under all temperature and pH treatments, with the greatest covers occurring under simulated ocean acidification. Furthermore, photosynthetic efficiency under acidification was greater on concrete substratum compared to all other materials and treatment combinations. These results demonstrate the capacity to maximise ecological benefits whilst still meeting local management objectives when engineering coastal defense structures by selecting materials that are appropriate in an ocean change context. Therefore, mitigation efforts to offset impacts from sea-level rise and storms can also be engineered to alter, or even reduce, the effects of climatic change on biological assemblages. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Lianqing; Yang, Fan; Yang, Changbing; Chen, Xinfang; Zhang, Luochen; Chi, Yixia; Yang, Guang

    2017-08-15

    Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the double mass curve method (DMC) and the Budyko methods. The time series (1960~2015) are divided into three periods: the prior impacted period (1960~1972) and the two post impacted periods, 1973~1986 and 1987~2015 with trend analysis. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow in TRB with contribution of 144.6% to 120.68% during the post impacted period I and 228.68% to 140.38% during the post impacted period II. Climatic variables accounted for 20.68%~44.6% of the decrease during the post impacted period I and 40.38% ~128.68% during the post impacted period II. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the streamflow alteration was most sensitive to changes in landscape parameters. The aridity index and all the elasticities showed an obvious increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream in the TRB. Our study suggests that it is important to take effective measures for sustainable development of eco-hydrological and socio-economic systems in the TRB.

  11. Past and Future of the Anthropogenic Biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, E. C.

    2010-12-01

    Human populations and their use of land have now transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes). As anthromes have emerged as the dominant global forms of ecological pattern and process, human interactions with terrestrial ecosystems have become a key earth system process, determining the structure and functioning of the biosphere. This presentation explores Ester Boserup’s land use intensification theories as models for understanding the emergence and dynamics of anthromes and their ecological processes, including their biogeochemistry and community structure, from the mostly wild biosphere of the Holocene to the primarily anthropogenic biosphere of the present and future. Existing global models and data for human population growth and land use over the Holocene differ in their portrayal of the global transition to a mostly anthropogenic biosphere. Yet there is little doubt that human populations have continued to grow over the long term and that anthromes have been increasingly important global ecological systems for millennia. This is conclusive evidence that human interactions with ecosystems can be sustained over the long-term, albeit under conditions that may no longer be realizable by either Earth or human systems. The classic Malthusian paradigm, in which human population growth outstrips natural resources leading to population collapse is unsupported by historical observations at global scale. Boserupian intensification is the better model, providing a robust theoretical foundation in which socio-ecological systems evolve as human populations increase, towards increasingly efficient use of limiting natural resources and enhanced production of anthropogenic ecological services such as food. This is not a story of technical advance, but rather of the forced adoption of ever more energy-intensive technical solutions in support of ever increasing population demands. And it does explain historical changes in the biosphere

  12. Environmental tasks of anthropogenic actions and climatic changes in pozo del Molle, Cordoba Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mansilla, L.; Karlsson, A.; Ayala, R.

    2007-01-01

    This work was made in Pozo del Molle town, Rio Segundo, Cordoba. Argentina. The human impact added to climate changes, mainly the increase of precipitations, affects negatively in the environmental problems. In the area, in the last years, the problems that lead to the degradation of the environment were accentuated. The disposition of the final waste disposal has been determined through the following studies: analysis of the geological conditions of the area, consideration of the climatic situation, and the elevation and contamination the phreatic. Also an analysis about the rate of the habitant/day solid residual generation, the distance between the site where is located the urban solid residues and the town, the predominant winds and the vulnerability of the phreatic, which represents the greatest problem of the area, was made. It has been established the alternatives to carry out an appropriate environmental administration. Key words: human impact, climatic changes, environmental problems, phreatic, Pozo del Molle (Argentina). (author)

  13. Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels...... and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate......-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how...

  14. Was Anthropogenic Climate Change Falsifiable in 1925? : Reflection on the Scientific Attitude

    OpenAIRE

    Bouleau, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    In 1925, a French astronomer J. Mascart achieved the gigantic work of studying more than three thousand publications in order to sum up the available knowledge about the climate variability. He published his analysis and conclusions in a book. We base on this work to tackle anew some epistemological problems. In particular we weigh up the relevance of the popperian doctrine in the case of climate change. As eventually seen, the strict framework of falsifiability does not practically operate a...

  15. Environmental changes in the central Po Plain (northern Italy) due to fluvial modifications and anthropogenic activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchetti, Mauro

    2002-05-01

    The fluvial environment of the central Po Plain, the largest plain in Italy, is discussed in this paper. Bounded by the mountain chains of the Alps and the Apennines, this plain is a link between the Mediterranean environment and the cultural and continental influences of both western and eastern Europe. In the past decades, economic development has been responsible for many changes in the fluvial environment of the area. This paper discusses the changes in fluvial dynamics that started from Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene due to distinct climatic changes. The discussion is based on geomorphological, pedological, and archaeological evidences and radiocarbon dating. In the northern foothills, Late Pleistocene palaeochannels indicate several cases of underfit streams among the northern tributaries of the River Po. On the other hand, on the southern side of the Po Plain, no geomorphological evidence of similar discharge reduction has been found. Here, stratigraphic sections, together with archaeological remains buried under the fluvial deposits, show a reduction in the size of fluvial sediments after the 10th millennium BC. During the Holocene, fluvial sedimentation became finer, and was characterised by minor fluctuations in the rate of deposition, probably related to short and less intense climatic fluctuations. Given the high rate of population growth and the development of human activities since the Neolithic Age, human influence on fluvial dynamics, especially since the Roman Age, prevailed over other factors (i.e., climate, tectonics, vegetation, etc.). During the Holocene, the most important changes in the Po Plain were not modifications in water discharge but in sediment. From the 1st to 3rd Century AD, land grants to war veterans caused almost complete deforestation, generalised soil erosion, and maximum progradation of the River Po delta. At present, land abandonment in the mountainous region has led to reafforestation. Artificial channel control in the

  16. Background Ozone in Southern China During 1994-2015: Role of Anthropogenic Emission and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, T.; Zhang, L.; Poon, S.

    2016-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Changes in background ozone concentrations and underlying causes are therefore of great interest to the scientific community and governments. Compared with North America and Europe, long-term measurements of background ozone in China are scarce. This study reports the longest continuous ozone record in southern China measured at a background site (Hok Tsui) in Hong Kong during 1994-2015. The analysis of the 22-year record shows that the surface ozone in the background atmosphere of southern China has been increasing, with an overall Theil-Sen estimated rate of 0.43 ppbv/yr. Compared with our previous results during 1994-2007 (Wang et al., 2009), the average rate of increase has slowed down over during 2008-2015 (0.32 vs. 0.58 ppbv/yr), possibly due to smaller increase or even decrease in ozone precursors emission in mainland China in recent years. The average rates of change show significant seasonal differences with the largest rate occurring in summer (0.32, 0.55, 0.52, and 0.36 ppbv/yr in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively). Monthly mean ozone concentrations at Hok Tsui are compared against an East Asian Monsoon index. It is found that only the summer-time ozone over period 2008-2015 has a strong positive correlation with the index, suggesting that climate might have played an important role in driving the ozone increase observed in summer since 2008. The ozone trend in Hong Kong will be compared to those from other regions in East Asia, and the role of emission changes in Asia will be discussed.

  17. Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryghaug, Marianne; Sørensen, Knut Holtan; Naess, Robert

    2011-11-01

    This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics.

  18. Anthropogenic influence on recent bathymetric change in west-central San Francisco Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; Kvitek, Rikk G.

    2010-01-01

    Two multibeam sonar surveys of west-central San Francisco Bay, California, were conducted in 1997 and 2008. Bathymetric change analysis between the two surveys indicates a loss of 14.1 million cubic meters (-3.1 cm/yr-1) of sediment during this time period, representing an approximately three-fold acceleration of the rate that was observed from prior depth change analysis from 1947 to 1979 for all of Central Bay, using more spatially coarse National Ocean Service (NOS) soundings. The portions of the overlapping survey areas between 1997 and 2008 designated as aggregate mining lease sites lost sediment at five times the rate of the remainder of west-central San Francisco Bay. Despite covering only 28% of the analysis area, volume change within leasing areas accounted for 9.2 million cubic meters of sediment loss, while the rest of the area lost 4.9 million cubic meters of sediment. The uncertainty of this recent analysis is more tightly constrained due to more stringent controls on vertical and horizontal position via tightly coupled, inertially aided differential Global Positioning Systems (GPS) solutions for survey vessel trajectory that virtually eliminate inaccuracies from traditional tide modeling and vessel motion artifacts. Further, quantification of systematic depth measurement error can now be calculated through comparison of static surfaces (e.g., bedrock) between surveys using seafloor habitat maps based on acoustic backscatter measurements and ground-truthing with grab samples and underwater video. Sediment loss in the entire San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half-century,as estimated from a series of bathymetric change studies, is 240 million cubic meters, and most of this is believed to be coarse sediment (i.e., sand and gravel) from Central Bay and the San Francisco Bar, which is likely to limit the sand supply to adjacent, open-coast beaches. This hypothesis is supported by a calibrated numerical model in a related study that indicates

  19. The impact of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on regional climate extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, Kirsten L; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John P; Lintner, Benjamin R; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph A; Shevliakova, Elena

    2017-10-20

    Land surface processes modulate the severity of heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. However, models show contrasting effects of land surface changes on extreme temperatures. Here, we use an earth system model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to investigate regional impacts of land use and land cover change on combined extremes of temperature and humidity, namely aridity and moist enthalpy, quantities central to human physiological experience of near-surface climate. The model's near-surface temperature response to deforestation is consistent with recent observations, and conversion of mid-latitude natural forests to cropland and pastures is accompanied by an increase in the occurrence of hot-dry summers from once-in-a-decade to every 2-3 years. In the tropics, long time-scale oceanic variability precludes determination of how much of a small, but significant, increase in moist enthalpy throughout the year stems from the model's novel representation of historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, and regrowth of secondary vegetation and how much is forced by internal variability within the tropical oceans.

  20. Plant species dispersed by Galapagos tortoises surf the wave of habitat suitability under anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis-Soto, Diego; Blake, Stephen; Soultan, Alaaeldin; Guézou, Anne; Cabrera, Fredy; Lötters, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    Native biodiversity on the Galapagos Archipelago is severely threatened by invasive alien species. On Santa Cruz Island, the abundance of introduced plant species is low in the arid lowlands of the Galapagos National Park, but increases with elevation into unprotected humid highlands. Two common alien plant species, guava (Psidium guajava) and passion fruit (Passiflora edulis) occur at higher elevations yet their seeds are dispersed into the lowlands by migrating Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.). Tortoises transport large quantities of seeds over long distances into environments in which they have little or no chance of germination and survival under current climate conditions. However, climate change is projected to modify environmental conditions on Galapagos with unknown consequences for the distribution of native and introduced biodiversity. We quantified seed dispersal of guava and passion fruit in tortoise dung piles and the distribution of adult plants along two elevation gradients on Santa Cruz to assess current levels of 'wasted' seed dispersal. We computed species distribution models for both taxa under current and predicted future climate conditions. Assuming that tortoise migratory behaviour continues, current levels of "wasted" seed dispersal in lowlands were projected to decline dramatically in the future for guava but not for passion fruit. Tortoises will facilitate rapid range expansion for guava into lowland areas within the Galapagos National Park where this species is currently absent. Coupled with putative reduction in arid habitat for native species caused by climate change, tortoise driven guava invasion will pose a serious threat to local plant communities.

  1. Anthropogenic Influences in Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Mediterranean Forest Landscapes in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donato S. La Mela Veca

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes and quantifies the land use/land cover changes of the main forest and semi-natural landscape types in Sicily between 1955 and 2012. We analyzed seven representative forest and shrubland landscapes in Sicily. These study areas were chosen for their importance in the Sicilian forest panorama. We carried out a diachronic survey on historical and current aerial photos; all the aerial images used to survey the land use/land cover changes were digitalized and georeferenced in the UTM WGS84 system. In order to classify land use, the Regional Forest Inventory 2010 legend was adopted for the more recent images, and the CORINE Land Cover III level used for the older, lower resolution images. This study quantifies forest landscape dynamics; our results show for almost all study areas an increase of forest cover and expansion, whereas a regressive dynamic is found in rural areas due to intensive agricultural and pasturage uses. Understanding the dynamics of forest landscapes could enhance the role of forestry policy as a tool for landscape management and regional planning.

  2. Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milano, Marianne; Reynard, Emmanuel; Köplin, Nina; Weingartner, Rolf

    2015-12-01

    Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Plant species dispersed by Galapagos tortoises surf the wave of habitat suitability under anthropogenic climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Ellis-Soto

    Full Text Available Native biodiversity on the Galapagos Archipelago is severely threatened by invasive alien species. On Santa Cruz Island, the abundance of introduced plant species is low in the arid lowlands of the Galapagos National Park, but increases with elevation into unprotected humid highlands. Two common alien plant species, guava (Psidium guajava and passion fruit (Passiflora edulis occur at higher elevations yet their seeds are dispersed into the lowlands by migrating Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.. Tortoises transport large quantities of seeds over long distances into environments in which they have little or no chance of germination and survival under current climate conditions. However, climate change is projected to modify environmental conditions on Galapagos with unknown consequences for the distribution of native and introduced biodiversity. We quantified seed dispersal of guava and passion fruit in tortoise dung piles and the distribution of adult plants along two elevation gradients on Santa Cruz to assess current levels of 'wasted' seed dispersal. We computed species distribution models for both taxa under current and predicted future climate conditions. Assuming that tortoise migratory behaviour continues, current levels of "wasted" seed dispersal in lowlands were projected to decline dramatically in the future for guava but not for passion fruit. Tortoises will facilitate rapid range expansion for guava into lowland areas within the Galapagos National Park where this species is currently absent. Coupled with putative reduction in arid habitat for native species caused by climate change, tortoise driven guava invasion will pose a serious threat to local plant communities.

  4. The anthropogenic change of sedimentary system recored to short core in brackish Lake Ogawara, North Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagashima, A.; Seto, K.; yamada, K.; Yonenobu, H.

    2013-12-01

    The sedimentary environment of brackish lake is fluctuated by the effect of sediment flux from rivers, tidal, climate change, and human activities. Each brackish lake has a specific character. The Lake Ogawara is located in east part of Aomori Prefecture, is connected to the Pacific Ocean through Takase River. In this study, we performed the investigation in the Lake Ogawara at 2011, to clarify a characteristic of recent sedimentary environments. In addition, the short coring at 2012 is performed to show a changes of sedimentary environments. The investigation is made up of 110 detailed sampling localities in grid and 100 water quality measurement sites in a traverse line through the lake system. In addition, the short cores were sampled at sites of Og20, 33, 64, 84, 95 and 97. The water column of Lake Ogawara divided into 3 water masses, as an epilimnion (0-10m), a metalimnion (10-18m), and a hypolimnion (deeper than 18m). The environments in metalimnion and hypolimnion show the anoxic to euxinic condition. The upper part of the metalimnion shows pycnocline dependent on water temperature and salinity, and the lower part shows pycnocline dependent on mainly salinity. Surface sediments are observed well-sorted sand shallower than 10m, and black organic mud with lamination deeper than it depth. As a result of CNS element anaysis of surface sediments, the total organic carbon (TOC) contens increase toward deep, and show very high value (around 8%) in metalimnion and hypolimnion. Total sulfur (TS) content shows 1-2% of values deeper than metalimnion. In spite of euxinic condition, TOC/TS ratio is high in comparison with the normal marine. This suggests the exhaustion of metal ions such as iron or undersupply of sulfate ion. In Og84, 97 cores, the upper part shows the black (L*=6). But lower part shows relative high lightness (L*=15 to 20). The mean grain size of the upper part (black layer) is 6.5φ, the lower part shows the 8.0φ. TOC contents shows the around 7% in

  5. Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2017-02-01

    While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  6. Prediction of Groundwater Quality Trends Resulting from Anthropogenic Changes in Southeast Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Quanghee; Stewart, Mark

    2018-01-01

    The effects of surface water flow system changes caused by constructing water-conservation areas and canals in southeast Florida on groundwater quality under the Atlantic Coastal Ridge was investigated with numerical modeling. Water quality data were used to delineate a zone of groundwater with low total dissolved solids (TDS) within the Biscayne aquifer under the ridge. The delineated zone has the following characteristics. Its location generally coincides with an area where the Biscayne aquifer has high transmissivities, corresponds to a high recharge area of the ridge, and underlies a part of the groundwater mound formed under the ridge prior to completion of the canals. This low TDS groundwater appears to be the result of pre-development conditions rather than seepage from the canals constructed after the 1950s. Numerical simulation results indicate that the time for low TDS groundwater under the ridge to reach equilibrium with high TDS surface water in the water-conservation areas and Everglades National Park are approximately 70 and 60 years, respectively. The high TDS groundwater would be restricted to the water-conservation areas and the park due to its slow eastward movement caused by small hydraulic gradients in Rocky Glades and its mixing with the low TDS groundwater under the high-recharge area of the ridge. The flow or physical boundary conditions such as high recharge rates or low hydraulic conductivity layers may affect how the spatial distribution of groundwater quality in an aquifer will change when a groundwater flow system reaches equilibrium with an associated surface water flow system. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

  7. Resilience, political ecology, and well-being: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding social-ecological change in coastal Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia F. Hoque

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The commodification of peasant livelihoods through export-oriented aquaculture has brought about significant social-ecological changes in low-lying coastal areas in many parts of Asia. A better understanding of the underlying drivers and distributional effects of these changes requires integration of social and ecological approaches that often have different epistemological origins. Resilience thinking has gained increased traction in social-ecological systems research because it provides a dynamic analysis of the cross-scalar interactions between multiple conditions and processes. However, the system-oriented perspective inherent in resilience thinking fails to acknowledge the heterogeneous values, interests, and power of social actors and their roles in navigating social-ecological change. Incorporation of political ecology and well-being perspectives can provide an actor-oriented analysis of the trade-offs associated with change and help to determine which state is desirable for whom. However, empirical demonstrations of such interdisciplinary approaches remain scarce. Here, we explore the combined application of resilience, political ecology, and well-being in investigating the root causes of social-ecological change and identifying the winners and losers of system transformation through empirical analysis of the differential changes in farming systems in two villages in coastal Bangladesh. Using the adaptive cycle as a structuring model, we examine the evolution of the shrimp aquaculture system over the past few decades, particularly looking at the power dynamics between households of different wealth classes. We found that although asymmetric land ownership and political ties enabled the wealthier households to reach their desired farming system in one village, social resilience achieved through memory, leadership, and crisis empowered poorer households to exercise their agency in another village. Material dimensions such as improved

  8. Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

    2018-06-01

    Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.

  9. Adapting to climate change on Western public lands: addressing the ecological effects of domestic, wild, and feral ungulates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beschta, Robert L; Donahue, Debra L; DellaSala, Dominick A; Rhodes, Jonathan J; Karr, James R; O'Brien, Mary H; Fleischner, Thomas L; Deacon Williams, Cindy

    2013-02-01

    Climate change affects public land ecosystems and services throughout the American West and these effects are projected to intensify. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, adaptation strategies for public lands are needed to reduce anthropogenic stressors of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and to help native species and ecosystems survive in an altered environment. Historical and contemporary livestock production-the most widespread and long-running commercial use of public lands-can alter vegetation, soils, hydrology, and wildlife species composition and abundances in ways that exacerbate the effects of climate change on these resources. Excess abundance of native ungulates (e.g., deer or elk) and feral horses and burros add to these impacts. Although many of these consequences have been studied for decades, the ongoing and impending effects of ungulates in a changing climate require new management strategies for limiting their threats to the long-term supply of ecosystem services on public lands. Removing or reducing livestock across large areas of public land would alleviate a widely recognized and long-term stressor and make these lands less susceptible to the effects of climate change. Where livestock use continues, or where significant densities of wild or feral ungulates occur, management should carefully document the ecological, social, and economic consequences (both costs and benefits) to better ensure management that minimizes ungulate impacts to plant and animal communities, soils, and water resources. Reestablishing apex predators in large, contiguous areas of public land may help mitigate any adverse ecological effects of wild ungulates.

  10. Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butchart, N. [Met Office, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom); Scaife, A.A. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Bourqui, M. [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); McGill University, Montreal (Canada); Grandpre, J. de [McGill University, Montreal (Canada); Hare, S.H.E. [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Kettleborough, J. [British Atmospheric Data Centre, Rutherford Laboratory, Didcot (United Kingdom); Langematz, U. [Freie Universitaet of Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Manzini, E. [National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology, Bologna (Italy); Sassi, F. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Shibata, K. [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Shindell, D. [NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York (United States); Sigmond, M. [University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada)

    2006-12-15

    The effect of climate change on the Brewer-Dobson circulation and, in particular, the large-scale seasonal-mean transport between the troposphere and stratosphere is compared in a number of middle atmosphere general circulation models. All the models reproduce the observed upwelling across the tropical tropopause balanced by downwelling in the extra tropics, though the seasonal cycle in upwelling in some models is more semi-annual than annual. All the models also consistently predict an increase in the mass exchange rate in response to growing greenhouse gas concentrations, irrespective of whether or not the model includes interactive ozone chemistry. The mean trend is 11 kt s{sup -1} year{sup -1} or about 2% per decade but varies considerably between models. In all but one of the models the increase in mass exchange occurs throughout the year though, generally, the trend is larger during the boreal winter. On average, more than 60% of the mean mass fluxes can be explained by the EP-flux divergence using the downward control principle. Trends in the annual mean mass fluxes derived from the EP-flux divergence also explain about 60% of the trend in the troposphere-to-stratosphere mass exchange rate when averaged over all the models. Apart from two models the interannual variability in the downward control derived and actual mass fluxes were generally well correlated, for the annual mean. (orig.)

  11. Response of a macrotidal estuary to changes in anthropogenic mercury loading between 1850 and 2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunderland, Elsie M; Dalziel, John; Heyes, Andrew; Branfireun, Brian A; Krabbenhoft, David P; Gobas, Frank A P C

    2010-03-01

    Methylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in marine food webs poses risks to fish-consuming populations and wildlife. Here we develop and test an estuarine mercury cycling model for a coastal embayment of the Bay of Fundy, Canada. Mass budget calculations reveal that MeHg fluxes into sediments from settling solids exceed losses from sediment-to-water diffusion and resuspension. Although measured methylation rates in benthic sediments are high, rapid demethylation results in negligible net in situ production of MeHg. These results suggest that inflowing fluvial and tidal waters, rather than coastal sediments, are the dominant MeHg sources for pelagic marine food webs in this region. Model simulations show water column MeHg concentrations peaked in the 1960s and declined by almost 40% by the year 2000. Water column MeHg concentrations respond rapidly to changes in mercury inputs, reaching 95% of steady state in approximately 2 months. Thus, MeHg concentrations in pelagic organisms can be expected to respond rapidly to mercury loading reductions achieved through regulatory controls. In contrast, MeHg concentrations in sediments have steadily increased since the onset of industrialization despite recent decreases in total mercury loading. Benthic food web MeHg concentrations are likely to continue to increase over the next several decades at present-day mercury emissions levels because the deep active sediment layer in this system contains a large amount of legacy mercury and requires hundreds of years to reach steady state with inputs.

  12. Anthropogenic impacts on an oyster metapopulation: Pathogen introduction, climate change and responses to natural selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bushek

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Humans rely on marine ecosystems for a variety of services but often impact these ecosystems directly or indirectly limiting their capacity to provide such services. One growing impact is the emergence of marine disease. We present results from a unique case study examining how oysters, a dominant organism in many coastal bays and estuaries that is often harvested for food, have responded to pathogens influenced by human activities, namely the introduction of novel pathogens. Climate change has enabled a northward spread and establishment of Dermo disease in oysters along the eastern seaboard of North America and human activities inadvertently introduced MSX disease along this same coast. Oysters in Delaware Bay have responded differently to each pathogen, and uniquely to MSX disease by developing a highly resistant baywide population not documented in any other bay. Offspring were produced using parents collected from low or high disease (MSX and Dermo regions of Delaware Bay and exposed in a common garden experiment along with a naïve population from Maine. Results indicated widespread resistance to MSX disease, but not to Dermo disease, across Delaware Bay. One striking result was the demonstration of resilience in the population through its capacity to spread, presumably through larval transport, resistance to MSX disease into portions of the population that have experienced little to no MSX disease pressure themselves. Related studies indicated that larval transport mechanisms allowed widespread dispersal such that the entire metapopulation could acquire a high level of resistance over time if disease resistance is sufficiently heritable. The findings have implications for restoration, management and recovery of diseased populations. Namely, that if left to their own devices, natural selection may find a solution that enables populations to recover from introduced pathogens.

  13. Community ecology in a changing environment: Perspectives from the Quaternary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Stephen T; Blois, Jessica L

    2015-04-21

    Community ecology and paleoecology are both concerned with the composition and structure of biotic assemblages but are largely disconnected. Community ecology focuses on existing species assemblages and recently has begun to integrate history (phylogeny and continental or intercontinental dispersal) to constrain community processes. This division has left a "missing middle": Ecological and environmental processes occurring on timescales from decades to millennia are not yet fully incorporated into community ecology. Quaternary paleoecology has a wealth of data documenting ecological dynamics at these timescales, and both fields can benefit from greater interaction and articulation. We discuss ecological insights revealed by Quaternary terrestrial records, suggest foundations for bridging between the disciplines, and identify topics where the disciplines can engage to mutual benefit.

  14. Climate data, analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Philip D. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-31

    Gridded Temperature Under prior/current support, we completed and published (Jones et al., 2012) the fourth major update to our global land dataset of near-surface air temperatures, CRUTEM4. This is one of the most widely used records of the climate system, having been updated, maintained and further developed with DoE support since the 1980s. We have continued to update the CRUTEM4 (Jones et al., 2012) database that is combined with marine data to produce HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012). The emphasis in our use of station temperature data is to access as many land series that have been homogenized by National Meteorological Services (NMSs, including NCDC/NOAA, Asheville, NC). Unlike the three US groups monitoring surface temperatures in a similar way, we do not infill areas that have no or missing data. We can only infill such regions in CRUTEM4 by accessing more station temperature series. During early 2014, we have begun the extensive task of updating as many of these series as possible using data provided by some NMSs and also through a number of research projects and programs around the world. All the station data used in CRUTEM4 have been available since 2009, but in Osborn and Jones (2014) we have made this more usable using a Google Earth interface (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/crutem/ge/ ). We have recently completed the update of our infilled land multi-variable dataset (CRU TS 3.10, Harris et al., 2014). This additionally produces complete land fields (except for the Antarctic) for temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, vapour pressure and sunshine/cloud. Using this dataset we have calculated sc-PDSI (self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index) data and compared with other PDSI datasets (Trenberth et al., 2014). Also using CRU TS 3.10 and Reanalysis datasets, we showed no overall increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns (Huntingford et al., 2013). Harris et al. (2014) is an update of an earlier

  15. The biological consequences of climate changes: An ecological and economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batie, S.S.; Shugart, H.H.

    1991-01-01

    The following subject areas are covered: (1) the level of climate change; (2) impacts of climate change on ecological systems (short-term (decadal), medium term (centenary), and long-term (millennial) effects); and (3) ecological consequences of climate change - evaluating the social costs (the problem of valuing consequences, intergenerational problem, and safe minimum standard strategies and policies)

  16. Consequences of climate change, eutrophication, and other anthropogenic impacts to coastal salt marshes: multiple stressors reduce resiliency and sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, E. B.; Wigand, C.; Nelson, J.; Davey, E.; Van Dyke, E.; Wasson, K.

    2011-12-01

    Coastal salt marshes provide a wide variety of ecosystem services, including habitat for protected vertebrates and ecologically valuable invertebrate fauna, flood protection, and improvements in water quality for adjacent marine and estuarine environments. Here, we consider the impacts of future sea level rise combined with other anthropogenic stressors to salt marsh sustainability through the implementation of field and laboratory mesocosms, manipulative experiments, correlative studies, and predictive modeling conducted in central California and southern New England salt marshes. We report on measurements of soil respiration, decomposition, sediment accumulation, and marsh elevation, which considered jointly suggest an association between nitrate input and marsh elevation loss resulting from mineralization of soil organic matter. Furthermore, use of imaging techniques (CT scans) has shown differences in belowground root and rhizome structure associated with fertilization, resulting in a loss of sediment cohesion promoted by fine root structure. Additionally, field and greenhouse mesocosm experiments have provided insight into the specific biogeochemical processes responsible for plant mortality at high immersion or salinity levels. In conclusion, we have found that poor water quality (i.e. eutrophication) leads to enhanced respiration and decomposition of soil organic matter, which ultimately contributes to a loss of salt marsh sustainability. However, marsh deterioration studied at field sites (Jamaica Bay, NY and Elkhorn Slough, CA) is associated not only with enhanced nutrient loads, but also increased immersion due to tidal range increases resulting from dredging. To ensure the continuation of the ecosystem services provided by tidal wetlands and to develop sustainable management strategies that provide favorable outcomes under a variety of future sea level rise and land use scenarios, we need to develop a better understanding of the relative impacts of the

  17. An inquiry into the relationships among science, policy and the public: the case of anthropogenic climate change; Betrachtung des Verhaeltnisses zwischen Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit am Beispiel der Diskussion um anthropogene Klimaaenderungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rau, S [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

    2001-07-01

    This thesis present an analysis of qualitative interviews with experts in the field of climate research in which the relation among science, policy and public is discussed. To begin, an overview of the methods and results of climate science is presented. Following, elements of the discourse among science, policy and public are presented in a manner that demonstrates the different ways to look at the problem of anthropogenic climate change. Subsequently, approaches of the sociology of science are introduced in which science is examined as a social process. Here the question is raised up to what extent climate research has taken a problem oriented perspective in which social and political criteria in the treatment of actual risks of global change are taken into account. The results of the analysis indicate that uncertainties in science led to different perspectives regarding the risks of anthropogenic climate change. In this way scientific knowledge itself becomes problematic. Communication of scientific results to policy and public poses a process which is stamped by individual values and preferences. This suggests the possibility that recognition of theories is increasingly determined by extra scientific criteria like resonance in the media and possibility of connection for political measures. (orig.) [German] In dieser Arbeit wird eine Analyse qualitativer Interviews mit Klimaforschern vorgestellt, in denen das Verhaeltnis von Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit diskutiert wird. In einem ersten Schritt wird ein Ueberblick gegeben ueber Methoden und Ergebnisse der gegenwaertigen Klimaforschung. Anschliessend werden Elemente des Diskurses zwischen Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit dargestellt, die unterschiedliche Selektionsmuster der Problematik um anthropogene Klimaaenderungen verdeutlichen. Hiervon ausgehend werden Ansaetze der Wissenschaftssoziologie vorgestellt, mit denen Wissenschaft als sozialer Prozess analysiert wird. Hierbei wird die Frage

  18. Coral Records of 20th Century Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity: Signatures of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.

    2011-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century

  19. Recent changes in Central European landscapes: An integrative ecological approach

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Těšitel, Jan; Kučera, Tomáš

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 24, č. 1 (2005), s. 3-6 ISSN 1335-342X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : integrative ecological approach * transdisciplinarity * interdisciplinarity * landscape ecology Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation Impact factor: 0.085, year: 2005

  20. Influence of anthropogenic alterations on geomorphic response to climate variations and change in San Francisco Bay-Delta and watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florsheim, J.L.; Dettinger, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    Global warming and attendant sea-level rise may soon impact geomorphic processes in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River and San Francisco Bay Delta systems. During the past two centuries, dramatic anthropogenic changes in sediment supply and pervasive structural controls on rivers and floodplains have altered geomorphic responses to floods throughout a zone that extends upstream from tidally influenced areas to dams that regulate flow. Current geomorphic responses to floods differ from natural responses due to historical actions that concentrated the pre-disturbance multiple-channel and flood-basin system into single channels isolated by levees from increasingly developed floodplains and flood bypass channels, altered flow and sediment regimes, and caused subsidence of leveed Delta Islands. A review of historic and current geomorphic responses to floods illustrates the dominance of structural controls on geomorphic changes in the lowland part of the Sacramento-San Joaquin system. Current climate-change projections for CA suggest that the total volume of snowmelt runoff that may be shifted from spring and added to winter flows is roughly 5 maf/yr, similar to the volume currently available for flood storage in Sierra Nevadan reservoirs. Changes in timing of reservoir releases to accommodate these changes could add to either the magnitude or duration of winter flood peaks, each causing different geomorphic responses. Increased wintertime flows that accompany already large floods could increase overbank flood extent, erosion, and sedimentation, or alternatively increase the depth and strength of confined flows and increase the risk of levee failures. Runoff released from reservoirs as a relatively constant addition to winter baseflow would increase the duration of bankfull or possibly "levee-full" flows. This scenario could lead to bank and levee failure through increased saturation and seepage erosion. Projected sea level rise of 1-2 m would compound vulnerability of

  1. Ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalusche, D.

    1978-01-01

    The book turns to the freshment, the teacher, for preparation of ecological topics for lessons, but also to pupils of the secondary stage II, and the main course ecology. The book was knowingly held simple with the restriction to: the ecosystem and its abiotic basic functions, simple articles on population biology, bioceonotic balance ith the questions of niche formation and the life form types coherent with it, of the substance and energy household, the production biology and space-wise and time-wise differentations within an ecological system form the main points. A central role in the volume is given to the illustrations. Their variety is to show and deepen the coherences shown. (orig./HP) [de

  2. Changes in the essential oil composition in the needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) under anthropogenic stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judzentiene, Asta; Stikliene, Aida; Kupcinskiene, Eugenija

    2007-03-21

    Unfavorable anthropogenic factors, such as air pollution, lead to biochemical responses in trees. Changes in the amounts of secondary metabolites may be early indicators of invisible injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate composition of the essential oils in the needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing in the areas affected by pollutant emissions of main factories in Lithuania: a nitrogen fertilizer factory (NFF), a cement factory (CF), and an oil refinery (OR). Totally, 14 pine stands were examined along transects from the factories (July 2005). Volatile components of the needles were extracted and analyzed by GC and GC/MS. Over 70 components of the essential oils were identified in current-year and 1-year-old needles. Along the CF transect for current-year needles, the percentage of diterpenes was decreasing with the increasing pH of the pine bark (r = -0.582; p essential oils in the needles allowed us to distinguish the most contrasting stands according to the concentration of air pollutants. Current-year needles were more effective as indicators of the effects of pollution than 1-year-old needles in the case of the NFF and the OR transects, and both-aged needles were equally valuable in the case of the CF transect. The changes detected in the proportions of components of the essential oils in the needles of the trees affected by the industrial emissions may play a significant role in modifying the susceptibility of the pine stands to the biotic factors, and also may alter emissions of terpenes from the stands to the atmosphere.

  3. Long-term genetic monitoring of a riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae]: Direct anthropogenic impact versus climate change effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog, Rebecca; Hadrys, Heike

    2017-01-01

    Modern conservationists call for long term genetic monitoring datasets to evaluate and understand the impact of human activities on natural ecosystems and species on a global but also local scale. However, long-term monitoring datasets are still rare but in high demand to correctly identify, evaluate and respond to environmental changes. In the presented study, a population of the riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae), was monitored over a time period from 1989 to 2013. Study site was an artificial irrigation ditch in one of the last European stone steppes and "nature heritage", the Crau in Southern France. This artificial riverine habitat has an unusual high diversity of odonate species, prominent indicators for evaluating freshwater habitats. A clearing of the canal and destruction of the bank vegetation in 1996 was assumed to have great negative impact on the odonate larval and adult populations. Two mitochondrial markers (CO1 & ND1) and a panel of nuclear microsatellite loci were used to assess the genetic diversity. Over time they revealed a dramatic decline in diversity parameters between the years 2004 and 2007, however not between 1996 and 1997. From 2007 onwards the population shows a stabilizing trend but has not reached the amount of genetic variation found at the beginning of this survey. This decline cannot be referred to the clearing of the canal or any other direct anthropogenic impact. Instead, it is most likely that the populations' decay was due to by extreme weather conditions during the specific years. A severe drought was recorded for the summer months of these years, leading to reduced water levels in the canal causing also other water parameters to change, and therefore impacting temperature sensitive riverine habitat specialists like the O. coerulescens in a significant way. The data provide important insights into population genetic dynamics and metrics not always congruent with traditional monitoring data (e

  4. Climatic and anthropogenic factors changing spawning pattern and production zone of Hilsa fishery in the Bay of Bengal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shohidullah Miah

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha Hamilton as a single species accounts 12% for more than half of the total marine catches. About 2% of the entire population of the country is directly or indirectly engaged with Hilsa fishing. Hilsa has a wide geographical distribution in Asia from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea. Particularly large stocks are found in Upper Bay of Bengal (BoB region sustained by the large river systems. The global Hilsa catch is reported 75% from Bangladesh water, 15% from Myanmar, 5% from India and 5% from other countries such as Thailand and Iran. Hilsa is a highly migratory and anadromous fish with the same migratory and same breeding behavior as that of Atlantic Salmon fish (Salmo sp.. Due to various anthropogenic activities, climate change effect, increased siltation and rising of the river basins, the migratory routes as well as spawning grounds of Hilsa are disturbed, displaced or even destroyed. During last two decades hilsa production from inland water declined about 20%, whereas marine water yield increased about 3 times. Major Hilsa to catch has been gradually shifted from inland to marine water. Hilsa fish ascend for spawning migration from sea into estuaries. It has been found that the major spawning areas have been shifted to the lower estuarine regions of Hatia, Sandwip and Bhola. At the spawning ground of Hilsa, the fishing level F=1.36 yr−1, where in the river Meghna the Fmsy=0.6 yr−1 and exploitation rate E=0.70 is (Emsy>0.5. Oceanographic changes viz. high turbidity increased flooding, more tidal action and changes of salinity etc. have accelerated the change of migration patterns of spawning, growth and its production. Hilsa fecundity ranges from 1.5 to 2.0 million eggs for fish ranging in length from 35 to 50 cm. Hilsa fecundity is declining in different areas due to climate change and the declining fecundity impacting greatly on Hilsa production. Due to shifting of the spawning ground at the lower

  5. Water supply sustainability and adaptation strategies under anthropogenic and climatic changes of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Lila; Ruelland, Denis; Estupina, Valérie Borrell; Dezetter, Alain; Servat, Eric

    2015-12-01

    stronger. The environmental sector would be hardly satisfied especially in summer with low resilience levels. The adaptation strategies considered in this study would not be sufficient to cope with both anthropogenic and climate changes. Other strategies were discussed based on known examples in the Mediterranean context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Framing futures: visualizing on social-ecological systems change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervoort, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the complexity and uncertainty that characterizes linked human and natural systems - or social-ecological systems - has proliferated throughout the sciences in recent decades. However, dominant societal images, mental models and discourses frame the complexity of

  7. Anthropogenic effects on shoreface and shoreline changes: Input from a multi-method analysis, Agadir Bay, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aouiche, Ismail; Daoudi, Lahcen; Anthony, Edward J.; Sedrati, Mouncef; Ziane, Elhassane; Harti, Abderrazak; Dussouillez, Philippe

    2016-02-01

    In many situations, the links between shoreline fluctuations and larger-scale coastal change embracing the shoreface are not always well understood. In particular, meso-scale (years to decades) sand exchanges between the shoreface and the shoreline, considered as important on many wave-dominated coasts, are rather poorly understood and difficult to identify. Coastal systems where sediment transport is perturbed by engineering interventions on the shoreline and shoreface commonly provide fine examples liable to throw light on these links. This is especially so where shoreface bathymetric datasets, which are generally lacking, are collected over time, enabling more or less fine resolution of the meso-scale coastal sediment budget. Agadir Bay and the city of Agadir together form one of the two most important economic development poles on the Atlantic coast of Morocco. Using a combined methodological approach based on wave-current modelling, bathymetric chart-differencing, determination of shoreline fluctuations, and beach topographic surveying, we highlight the close links between variations in the bed of the inner shoreface and the bay shoreline involving both cross-shore and longshore sand transport pathways, sediment budget variations and new sediment cell patterns. We show that the significant changes that have affected the bay shoreline and shoreface since 1978 clearly reflect anthropogenic impacts, notably blocking of alongshore sand transport by Agadir harbour, completed in 1988, and the foundations of which lie well beyond the depth of wave closure. Construction of the harbour has led to the creation of a rapidly accreting beach against an original portion of rocky shoreline updrift and to a net sand loss exceeding 145,000 m3/year between 1978 and 2012 over 8.5 km2of the bay shoreface downdrift. Shoreline retreat has been further exacerbated by sand extraction from aeolian dunes and by flattening of these dunes to make space for tourist infrastructure. Digital

  8. The political ecology of climate change adaptation livelihoods, agrarian change and the conflicts of development

    CERN Document Server

    Taylor, Marcus

    2014-01-01

    This book provides the first systematic critique of the concept of climate change adaptation within the field of international development. Drawing on a reworked political ecology framework, it argues that climate is not something 'out there' that we adapt to. Instead, it is part of the social and biophysical forces through which our lived environments are actively yet unevenly produced. From this original foundation, the book challenges us to rethink the concepts of climate change, vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity in transformed ways. With case studies drawn from Pakistan, Indi

  9. What is the impact on fish recruitment of anthropogenic physical and structural habitat change in shallow nearshore areas in temperate systems? A systematic review protocol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacUra, B.; Lönnstedt, O.M.; Byström, P.

    2016-01-01

    and spawning habitats of many fish and other aquatic species. Several coastal fish populations have seen marked declines in abundance and diversity during the past two decades. A systematic review on the topic would clarify if anthropogenic physical and structural changes of near-shore areas have effects...... on fish recruitment and which these effects are. Methods: The review will examine how various physical and structural anthropogenic changes of nearshore fish habitats affect fish recruitment. Relevant studies include small- and large-scale field studies in marine and brackish systems or large lakes......Background: Shallow nearshore marine ecosystems are changing at an increasing rate due to a range of human activities such as urbanisation and commercial development. The growing numbers of constructions and other physical and structural alterations of the shoreline often take place in nursery...

  10. Changing the Ecology of Climate Communication in Your Organization (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambliss, L.; Lewenstein, B.

    2013-12-01

    After decades of frustration, scientists have an exciting opportunity to provide the research-based insights necessary for us all to foster a more sustainable future. Yet, individual scientists and researchers are more effective in their communication and public engagement to the extent their organization supports and facilitates such outreach. This presentation will offer strategies for enhancing multi-disciplinary organizational capabilities in climate change communication and public engagement that go beyond the traditional force-feeding of information and data to a largely unreceptive public. Two essential components of a healthy ecology of climate communication at the organizational level are 1) a multi-disciplinary approach and 2) direct engagement with external audiences and stakeholders so that information is flowing in multiple directions. The traditional flow of fact-based information- from scientist through organization/institution to the public - is rarely effective. We will discuss a New York state-focused, research-based effort that is a workable model for how scientists can engage local and state agencies, corporations, NGOs, business leaders, and other actors. In this case, researches collaborated with diverse stakeholders to create a suite of community events, products and online tools with science-based information carefully crafted and targeted to avoid politicization. This effort facilitated education and planning for community, agricultural and business planners who are making decisions now with 20-to 50-year time frames. As an example of a responsive information flow, a community conference 'Climate Smart and Climate Ready' targeted to local and regional planners included sessions on grief and fear, in addition to assessments of regional impact by sector, after input from stakeholders indicated a strong need to blend science delivery with acknowledgment of the emotional field. We will also examine successful ways science-based organizations

  11. Spectral characteristics and feature selection of satellite remote sensing data for climate and anthropogenic changes assessment in Bucharest area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria; Savastru, Roxana; Savastru, Dan; Tautan, Marina; Miclos, Sorin; Cristescu, Luminita; Carstea, Elfrida; Baschir, Laurentiu

    2010-05-01

    was suggested. On the basis of analyzing the information quantity of bands, correlation between different bands, spectral absorption characteristics of objects and object separability in bands, a fundamental method of optimum band selection and feature extraction from remote sensing data was discussed. Spectral signatures of different terrain features have been used to extract structural patterns aiming to separate surface units and to classify the general categories. The synergetic analysis and interpretation of the different satellite images (LANDSAT: TM, ETM; MODIS, IKONOS) acquired over a period of more than 20 years reveals significant aspects regarding impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes on urban/periurban environment. It was delimited residential zones of industrial zones which are very often a source of pollution. An important role has urban green cover assessment. Have been emphasized the particularities of the functional zones from different points of view: architectural, streets and urban surface traffic, some components of urban infrastructure as well as habitat quality. The growth of Bucharest urban area in Romania has been a result of a rapid process of industrialization, and also of the increase of urban population. Information on the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of land cover and land use of urban areas is critical to address a wide range of practical problems relating to urban regeneration, urban sustainability and rational planning policy.

  12. The influence of climate variability and change on the science and practice of restoration ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald A. Falk; Connie Millar

    2016-01-01

    Variation in Earth’s climate system has always been a primary driver of ecosystem processes and biological evolution. In recent decades, however, the prospect of anthropogenically driven change to the climate system has become an increasingly dominant concern for scientists and conservation biologists. Understanding how ecosystems may...

  13. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  14. Analysis on the adaptive countermeasures to ecological management under changing environment in the Tarim River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Fan; Xue, Lianqing; Zhang, Luochen; Chen, Xinfang; Chi, Yixia

    2017-12-01

    This article aims to explore the adaptive utilization strategies of flow regime versus traditional practices in the context of climate change and human activities in the arid area. The study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the Budyko method and adaptive utilization strategies to eco-hydrological regime by comparing the applicability between autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) model and combined regression model. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in streamflow deduction in the mainstream with contribution of 120.7%~190.1%. While in the headstreams, climatic variables were the primary determinant of streamflow by 56.5~152.6% of the increase. The comparison revealed that combined regression model performed better than ARMA model with the qualified rate of 80.49~90.24%. Based on the forecasts of streamflow for different purposes, the adaptive utilization scheme of water flow is established from the perspective of time and space. Our study presents an effective water resources scheduling scheme for the ecological environment and provides references for ecological protection and water allocation in the arid area.

  15. Urbanization and stream ecology: Diverse mechanisms of change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Allison; Capps, Krista A.; El-Sabaawi, Rana W.; Jones, Krista L.; Parr, Thomas B.; Ramirez, Alonso; Smith, Robert F.; Walsh, Christopher J.; Wenger, Seth J.

    2016-01-01

    The field of urban stream ecology has evolved rapidly in the last 3 decades, and it now includes natural scientists from numerous disciplines working with social scientists, landscape planners and designers, and land and water managers to address complex, socioecological problems that have manifested in urban landscapes. Over the last decade, stream ecologists have met 3 times at the Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology (SUSE) to discuss current research, identify knowledge gaps, and promote future research collaborations. The papers in this special series on urbanization and stream ecology include both primary research studies and conceptual synthesis papers spurred from discussions at SUSE in May 2014. The themes of the meeting are reflected in the papers in this series emphasizing global differences in mechanisms and responses of stream ecosystems to urbanization and management solutions in diverse urban streams. Our hope is that this series will encourage continued interdisciplinary and collaborative research to increase the global understanding of urban stream ecology toward stream protection and restoration in urban landscapes.

  16. Terrestrial ecological responses of climate change in the Northern hemisphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forchhammer, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    Focusing on the single most important atmospheric phenomenon in the Northern hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the author reviews the recent studies coupling the NAO with the ecology of a wide range of terrestrial organisms. In particular, the author focuses on low variations in the NAO affect phenotypic variation in life history Traits and, ultimately, dynamics of populations and of interacting species. (LN)

  17. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity in Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fayle, Tom Maurice; Sam, Kateřina

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 1 (2017), s. 145-188 ISSN 2045-7758 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : data sharing * global biodiversity modeling * global change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 2.440, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.2579/abstract

  18. Ecological grief as a mental health response to climate change-related loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunsolo, Ashlee; Ellis, Neville R.

    2018-04-01

    Climate change is increasingly understood to impact mental health through multiple pathways of risk, including intense feelings of grief as people suffer climate-related losses to valued species, ecosystems and landscapes. Despite growing research interest, ecologically driven grief, or `ecological grief', remains an underdeveloped area of inquiry. We argue that grief is a natural and legitimate response to ecological loss, and one that may become more common as climate impacts worsen. Drawing upon our own research in Northern Canada and the Australian Wheatbelt, combined with a synthesis of the literature, we offer future research directions for the study of ecological grief.

  19. Multiplex social ecological network analysis reveals how social changes affect community robustness more than resource depletion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baggio, Jacopo A; BurnSilver, Shauna B; Arenas, Alex; Magdanz, James S; Kofinas, Gary P; De Domenico, Manlio

    2016-11-29

    Network analysis provides a powerful tool to analyze complex influences of social and ecological structures on community and household dynamics. Most network studies of social-ecological systems use simple, undirected, unweighted networks. We analyze multiplex, directed, and weighted networks of subsistence food flows collected in three small indigenous communities in Arctic Alaska potentially facing substantial economic and ecological changes. Our analysis of plausible future scenarios suggests that changes to social relations and key households have greater effects on community robustness than changes to specific wild food resources.

  20. Bringing an ecological view of change to Landsat-based remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Robert E.; Andrefouet, Serge; Cohen, Warren; Gomez, Cristina; Griffiths, Patrick; Hais, Martin; Healey, Sean; Helmer, Eileen H.; Hostert, Patrick; Lyons, Mitchell; Meigs, Garrett; Pflugmacher, Dirk; Phinn, Stuart; Powell, Scott; Scarth, Peter; Susmita, Sen; Schroeder, Todd A.; Schneider, Annemarie; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Vogelmann, James; Wulder, Michael A.; Zhu, Zhe

    2014-01-01

    When characterizing the processes that shape ecosystems, ecologists increasingly use the unique perspective offered by repeat observations of remotely sensed imagery. However, the concept of change embodied in much of the traditional remote-sensing literature was primarily limited to capturing large or extreme changes occurring in natural systems, omitting many more subtle processes of interest to ecologists. Recent technical advances have led to a fundamental shift toward an ecological view of change. Although this conceptual shift began with coarser-scale global imagery, it has now reached users of Landsat imagery, since these datasets have temporal and spatial characteristics appropriate to many ecological questions. We argue that this ecologically relevant perspective of change allows the novel characterization of important dynamic processes, including disturbances, long-term trends, cyclical functions, and feedbacks, and that these improvements are already facilitating our understanding of critical driving forces, such as climate change, ecological interactions, and economic pressures.

  1. Monitoring long-term ecological changes through the Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network: science-based and policy relevant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, H; Brydges, T; Fenech, A; Lumb, A

    2001-01-01

    Ecological monitoring and its associated research programs have often provided answers to various environmental management issues. In the face of changing environmental conditions, ecological monitoring provides decision-makers with reliable information as they grapple with maintaining a sustainable economy and healthy environment. The Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network (EMAN) is a national ecological monitoring network consisting of (1) about 100 case study sites across the country characterized by long-term multi-disciplinary environmental work conducted by a multitude of agencies (142 partners and counting); (2) a variety of less comprehensive yet more extensive monitoring sites; (3) a network where core monitoring variables of ecosystem change are measured; and (4) geo-referenced environmental observations. Environment Canada is the co-ordinating partner for the network through the EMAN Co-ordinating Office. EMAN's mission is to focus a scientifically-sound, policy-relevant ecosystem monitoring and research network based on (a) stabilizing a network of case-study sites operated by a variety of partners, and (b) developing a number of cooperative dispersed monitoring initiatives in order to deliver unique and needed goods and services. These goods and services include: (1) an efficient and cost-effective early warning system which detects, describes and reports on changes in Canadian ecosystems at a national or ecozone scale; and (2) cross-disciplinary and cross-jurisdictional assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes. The early warning system and assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes provide Environment Canada and partner organizations with timely information that facilitates increasingly adaptive policies and priority setting. Canadians are also informed of changes and trends occurring in Canadian ecosystems and, as a result, are better able to make decisions related to conservation and sustainability.

  2. Environmental impacts of hydroelectric power and other anthropogenic developments on the hydromorphology and ecology of the Durance channel and the Etang de Berre, southeast France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Robin F

    2012-08-15

    The generation of electricity through hydropower can, along with other anthropogenic activities, degrade river hydromorphology and ecosystems. In this case, water for power generation is diverted from the River Durance to a canal, which services a chain of 17 power stations, with the lower three being in the catchment of the Etang de Berre. This means that excess water and sediments are discharged into the salt-water lagoon with enormous consequences for ecosystems there. This paper summarizes the impacts of HEP and other human activities on both the river and lagoonal systems. It also considers agency and government attempts to understand and counter the degradation of these systems, both to date and in the future, with the latter catering for the potential impacts of future human development and global warming. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Consequences of Climate Change, Eutrophication, and Other Anthropogenic Impacts to Coastal Salt Marshes: Multiple Stressors Reduce Resiliency and Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coastal salt marshes provide a wide variety of ecosystem services, including habitat for protected vertebrates and ecologically valuable invertebrate fauna, flood protection, and improvements in water quality for adjacent marine and estuarine environments. Here, we consider the ...

  4. The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Alam, S.J.; Dijk, van J.; Rounsevell, T.; Spek, T.; Brink, van den A.

    2015-01-01

    Context Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers

  5. The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, Martha; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry; Rounsevell, Mark; Spek, Teun; van den Brink, Adri

    2015-01-01

    Context: Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers

  6. Traditional Ecological Knowledge among transhumant pastoralists in Mediterranean Spain: learning for adaptation to global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oteros Rozas, E.; Ontillera-Sánchez, R.; Sanosa, P.; Gómez-Baggethun, E.; Reyes-García, V.; González, J.A.

    2013-01-01

    Mobility is a millenary human strategy to deal with environmental change. An outstanding example of mobility is transhumance, an ancient pastoralist practice consisting of the seasonal migration of livestock between ecological regions following peaks in pasture productivity. The maintenance of

  7. IMPACTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGE ON THE ECOLOGY OF HUMAN PATHOGENS IN A EUTROPHYING ESTUARY: THE NEUSE RIVER ESTUARY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Approximately 75% of people in the U.S. live in coastal watersheds, with coastal urbanization and agricultural and industrial development increasing at rapid rates. Accelerating nutrient- and pathogen-enriched wastewater discharges accompanying coastal development are putting un...

  8. How landscape ecology informs global land-change science and policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audrey L. Mayer; Brian Buma; Am??lie Davis; Sara A. Gagn??; E. Louise Loudermilk; Robert M. Scheller; Fiona K.A. Schmiegelow; Yolanda F. Wiersma; Janet Franklin

    2016-01-01

    Landscape ecology is a discipline that explicitly considers the influence of time and space on the environmental patterns we observe and the processes that create them. Although many of the topics studied in landscape ecology have public policy implications, three are of particular concern: climate change; land use–land cover change (LULCC); and a particular type of...

  9. Ecological Carrying Capacity of Land Use Changes in Da'an City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Zhang, J.; Li, B.

    2018-04-01

    Based on GIS and RS technology, this paper analyzed the land use change in Da'an city from 1995 to 2010. land-use ecological evaluation index was constructed to evaluate the land-use ecological risk of Da 'an city dynamically, and the land-use ecological risk level map was made, and then the distribution and change of the land-use ecological carrying capacity pattern of Da'an city were analyzed qualitatively. According to the evaluation results of ecological carrying capacity, the ecological environment of Da'an city has deteriorated in fifteen years. in 1995, the poor ecological environment area is mainly distributed in the northeast area of Da'an city, and the area is small, while the area of the central and southern areas is large; In 2010, the western region also appeared environmental degradation, the northeast environment deterioration is serious, the dominant area is reduced, and a small amount of deterioration in the central and southern regions. According to the study of this paper, in the future, we should strengthen the comprehensive management of this part of the area, strengthen vegetation coverage, reduce soil erosion, ensure the effective improvement of ecological environment.

  10. [Ecology-economy harmonious development based on the ecological services value change in Yanqi Basin, Northwest China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamat, Zulpiya; Halik, Umut; Aji, Rouzi; Nurmemet, Ilyas; Anwar, Mirigul; Keyimu, Maierdang

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, we used land use/cover ecosystem service value estimation model and ecological economic coordination degree model to analyze the changes of the ecosystem service value by the land use/cover changes during 1985, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005 and 2011 in Yanqi Basin, Xin-jiang. Then we evaluated the ecology-economy harmony and the regional differences. The results showed that during 1985-2011, there was an increasing trend in the areas of waters, wetland, sand, cultivated land and construction land in Yanqi Basin. In contrast, that of the saline-alkali land, grassland and woodland areas exhibited a decreasing trend. The ecosystem service value in Yanqi Basin during this period presented an increasing trend, among which the waters and cultivated land contributed most to the total value of ecosystem services, while the grassland and the woodland had obviously declined contribution to the total value of ecosystem services. The research showed that the development of ecological economy in the study area was at a low conflict and low coordination level. So, taking reasonable and effective use of the regional waters and soil resources is the key element to maintain the ecosystem service function and sustainable and harmonious development of economy in Yanqi Basin.

  11. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. G. Streets

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2, nitrate (−0.2 W m−2, organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2, and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2. The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect, mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  13. Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

    2012-01-01

    We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  14. Ecologically unequal exchange, recessions, and climate change: A longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaorui

    2018-07-01

    This study investigates how the ecologically unequal exchange of carbon dioxide emissions varies with economic recessions. I propose a country-specific approach to examine (1) the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and the "vertical flow" of exports to the United States; and (2) the variations of the relationship before, during, and after two recent economic recessions in 2001 and 2008. Using data on 69 developing nations between 2000 and 2010, I estimate time-series cross-sectional regression models with two-way fixed effects. Results suggest that the vertical flow of exports to the United States is positively associated with carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. The magnitude of this relationship increased in 2001, 2009, and 2010, and decreased in 2008, but remained stable in non-recession periods, suggesting that economic recessions in the United States are associated with variations of ecologically unequal exchange. Results highlight the impacts of U.S. recessions on carbon emissions in developing countries through the structure of international trade. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Anthropogenic changes in the surface all-sky UV-B radiation through 1850-2005 simulated by an Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Takemura, T.; Sudo, K.; Yokohata, T.; Kawase, H.

    2012-06-01

    The historical anthropogenic change in the surface all-sky UV-B (solar ultraviolet: 280-315 nm) radiation through 1850-2005 is evaluated using an Earth system model. Responses of UV-B dose to anthropogenic changes in ozone and aerosols are separately evaluated using a series of historical simulations including/excluding these changes. Increases in these air pollutants cause reductions in UV-B transmittance, which occur gradually/rapidly before/after 1950 in and downwind of industrial and deforestation regions. Furthermore, changes in ozone transport in the lower stratosphere, which is induced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, increase ozone concentration in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. These transient changes work to decrease the amount of UV-B reaching the Earth's surface, counteracting the well-known effect increasing UV-B due to stratospheric ozone depletion, which developed rapidly after ca. 1980. As a consequence, the surface UV-B radiation change between 1850 and 2000 is negative in the tropics and NH extratropics and positive in the SH extratropics. Comparing the contributions of ozone and aerosol changes to the UV-B change, the transient change in ozone absorption of UV-B mainly determines the total change in the surface UV-B radiation at most locations. On the other hand, the aerosol direct and indirect effects on UV-B play an equally important role to that of ozone in the NH mid-latitudes and tropics. A typical example is East Asia (25° N-60° N and 120° E-150° E), where the effect of aerosols (ca. 70%) dominates the total UV-B change.

  16. Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Gong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

  17. Global change: Ecology of Greenlandish and Siberian shelf areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    This work aimed to study the distribution and structure of pelagic and benthal biocoenoses in two areas, the continental shelf of eastern Greenland and the northern Barents Sea, and to compare them in relation to their ecological boundary conditions. Furthermore, aspects of ontogenetic and ecophysiological adaptations of key species were investigated. The programme followed a fourfold approach: 1) Inventory of fauna, 2) analysis of the distribution and composition of communities, 3) autecological studies of selected key species, 4) description of associations between community structures, autecological adaptations, and special environmental conditions. In this way an inventory of pelagic and benthal biocoenoses in the two areas of investigation was prepared also with a view to further studies. Different modern sampling and data acquisition methods were used to ensure covering a broad spectrum of forms and sizes of fauna. (orig./KW) [de

  18. European wildcat populations are subdivided into five main biogeographic groups: consequences of Pleistocene climate changes or recent anthropogenic fragmentation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattucci, Federica; Oliveira, Rita; Lyons, Leslie A; Alves, Paulo C; Randi, Ettore

    2016-01-01

    Extant populations of the European wildcat are fragmented across the continent, the likely consequence of recent extirpations due to habitat loss and over-hunting. However, their underlying phylogeographic history has never been reconstructed. For testing the hypothesis that the European wildcat survived the Ice Age fragmented in Mediterranean refuges, we assayed the genetic variation at 31 microsatellites in 668 presumptive European wildcats sampled in 15 European countries. Moreover, to evaluate the extent of subspecies/population divergence and identify eventual wild × domestic cat hybrids, we genotyped 26 African wildcats from Sardinia and North Africa and 294 random-bred domestic cats. Results of multivariate analyses and Bayesian clustering confirmed that the European wild and the domestic cats (plus the African wildcats) belong to two well-differentiated clusters (average Ф ST = 0.159, r st = 0.392, P > 0.001; Analysis of molecular variance [AMOVA]). We identified from c. 5% to 10% cryptic hybrids in southern and central European populations. In contrast, wild-living cats in Hungary and Scotland showed deep signatures of genetic admixture and introgression with domestic cats. The European wildcats are subdivided into five main genetic clusters (average Ф ST = 0.103, r st = 0.143, P > 0.001; AMOVA) corresponding to five biogeographic groups, respectively, distributed in the Iberian Peninsula, central Europe, central Germany, Italian Peninsula and the island of Sicily, and in north-eastern Italy and northern Balkan regions (Dinaric Alps). Approximate Bayesian Computation simulations supported late Pleistocene-early Holocene population splittings (from c. 60 k to 10 k years ago), contemporary to the last Ice Age climatic changes. These results provide evidences for wildcat Mediterranean refuges in southwestern Europe, but the evolution history of eastern wildcat populations remains to be clarified. Historical genetic subdivisions suggest

  19. Political Ecology, Island Tourism Planning, and Climate Change Adaptation on Boracay, Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgilio Maguigad

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This research paper presents a case study of the island of Boracay, Philippines, utilising a political ecology approach to climate change adaptation. The research finds that the island’s political ecology, especially the relationships among stakeholders, is strained. This creates challenges for various urban planning processes that require good working relationships. Climate change is expected to highlight these divisions as interactions among stakeholders (fulfilling zoning ordinance obligations, climate change adaptation- compliant land use plans, etc. are dependent on good stakeholder relations. Stakeholders realise that climate change is real and that sea level rise is already challenging existing zoning ordinances on urban beach development. However, this realisation must be integrated into political decision-making processes involving tourism stakeholders. The research also shows that the political ecology approach and methodology is applicable to studying the dynamics of climate change adaptation and tourism urbanisation on small islands.

  20. Climate change and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gilg, Olivier; Kovacs, Kit M.; Aars, J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is taking place more rapidly and severely in the Arctic than anywhere on the globe, exposing Arctic vertebrates to a host of impacts. Changes in the cryosphere dominate the physical changes that already affect these animals, but increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation......, and ocean acidification will also affect Arctic ecosystems in the future. Adaptation via natural selection is problematic in such a rapidly changing environment. Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity is therefore likely to dominate Arctic vertebrate responses in the short term, and many such adjustments have...... already been documented. Changes in phenology and range will occur for most species but will only partly mitigate climate change impacts, which are particularly difficult to forecast due to the many interactions within and between trophic levels. Even though Arctic species richness is increasing via...

  1. Evaluating social and ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua E Cinner

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need to evaluate the links between the social and ecological dimensions of human vulnerability to climate change. We use an empirical case study of 12 coastal communities and associated coral reefs in Kenya to assess and compare five key ecological and social components of the vulnerability of coastal social-ecological systems to temperature induced coral mortality [specifically: 1 environmental exposure; 2 ecological sensitivity; 3 ecological recovery potential; 4 social sensitivity; and 5 social adaptive capacity]. We examined whether ecological components of vulnerability varied between government operated no-take marine reserves, community-based reserves, and openly fished areas. Overall, fished sites were marginally more vulnerable than community-based and government marine reserves. Social sensitivity was indicated by the occupational composition of each community, including the importance of fishing relative to other occupations, as well as the susceptibility of different fishing gears to the effects of coral bleaching on target fish species. Key components of social adaptive capacity varied considerably between the communities. Together, these results show that different communities have relative strengths and weaknesses in terms of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change.

  2. Landscape Ecological Risk Responses to Land Use Change in the Luanhe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Land use change has large effects on natural ecosystems, which is considered to be the main factor in eco-environment change. We analyzed the future characters of land use change by the CLUE-S model and explored landscape ecological risk responses to land use change by the landscape ecological risk index method. Using the Luanhe River Basin as a case study, we simulated future land use change from 2010 to 2030 under 3 scenarios (i.e., trend, high economic growth, and ecological security, and identified the hotspots of land use change. Afterward, we quantitatively investigated the degree of land use development and landscape ecological risk patterns that have occured since 2000 and that are expected to occur until 2030. Results revealed that, under the three scenarios, construction land and forest are expanding mainly at the expense of agriculture land and grassland. The hotspots of land use change are located in the vicinity of Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District of Chengde City in the midstream of the Luanhe River Basin, where urbanization has been strong since 2000 and is projected to continue that way until 2030. During this time period, hotspots of land use development have been gradually transferring from the downstream to the midstream since 2000 and, again, is expected to continue that way until 2030, which will impact the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risk. We found that the landscape ecological risk of the entire basin has shown a negative trend. However, a few areas still have serious ecological risk, which are mainly located in the east of upstream (Duolun County and Weichang County, the middle region (Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District, Chengde County, and Xinglong County, and the downstream (Qinglong County. These can provide key information for land use management, and for helping to prepare future eco-environmental policies in the Luanhe River Basin.

  3. Coral Ecosystem Resilience, Conservation and Management on the Reefs of Jamaica in the Face of Anthropogenic Activities and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. James C. Crabbe

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of factors that are important in reef resilience and integrity help us understand how reef ecosystems react following major anthropogenic and environmental disturbances. The North Jamaican fringing reefs have shown some recent resilience to acute disturbances from hurricanes and bleaching, in addition to the recurring chronic stressors of over-fishing and land development. Factors that can improve coral reef resilience are reviewed, and reef rugosity is shown to correlate with coral cover and growth, particularly for branching Acropora species. The biodiversity index for the Jamaican reefs was lowered after the 2005 mass bleaching event, as were the numbers of coral colonies, but both had recovered by 2009. The importance of coastal zone reef management strategies and the economic value of reefs are discussed, and a protocol is suggested for future management of Jamaican reefs.

  4. Changes in mouse gastrointestinal microbial ecology with ingestion of kale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyeno, Y; Katayama, S; Nakamura, S

    2014-09-01

    Kale, a cultivar of Brassica oleracea, has attracted a great deal of attention because of its health-promoting effects, which are thought to be exerted through modulation of the intestinal microbiota. The present study was performed to investigate the effects of kale ingestion on the gastrointestinal microbial ecology of mice. 21 male C57BL/6J mice were divided into three groups and housed in a specific pathogen-free facility. The animals were fed either a control diet or experimental diets supplemented with different commercial kale products for 12 weeks. Contents of the caecum and colon of the mice were processed for the determination of active bacterial populations by a bacterial rRNA-based quantification method and short-chain fatty acids by HPLC. rRNAs of Bacteroides-Prevotella, the Clostridium coccoides-Eubacterium rectale group, and Clostridium leptum subgroup constituted the major fraction of microbiota regardless of the composition of the diet. The ratio of Firmicutes to Bacteroidetes was higher in the colon samples of one of the kale diet groups than in the control. The colonic butyrate level was also higher with the kale-supplemented diet. Overall, the ingestion of kale tended to either increase or decrease the activity of specific bacterial groups in the mouse gastrointestinal tract, however, the effect might vary depending on the nutritional composition.

  5. Developmental Change in Social Responsibility during Adolescence: An Ecological Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray-Lake, Laura; Syvertsen, Amy K.; Flanagan, Constance A.

    2016-01-01

    Social responsibility can be defined as a set of prosocial values representing personal commitments to contribute to community and society. Little is known about developmental change--and predictors of that change--in social responsibility during adolescence. The present study used an accelerated longitudinal research design to investigate the…

  6. The changing ecology of Narragansett Bay as told by habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narragansett Bay has changed in many ways over millennia due to natural and human forces, and the rate of this change increased greatly after European colonization. We evaluated distributions of three stressors and four habitats in eight subdivisions of the Bay for aspects of ec...

  7. Representing anthropogenic gross land use change, wood harvest, and forest age dynamics in a global vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Li, Wei; McGrath, Matthew J.; Chang, Jinfeng; Peng, Shushi

    2018-01-01

    Land use change (LUC) is among the main anthropogenic disturbances in the global carbon cycle. Here we present the model developments in a global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2 for a more realistic representation of LUC processes. First, we included gross land use change (primarily shifting cultivation) and forest wood harvest in addition to net land use change. Second, we included sub-grid evenly aged land cohorts to represent secondary forests and to keep track of the transient stage of agricultural lands since LUC. Combination of these two features allows the simulation of shifting cultivation with a rotation length involving mainly secondary forests instead of primary ones. Furthermore, a set of decision rules regarding the land cohorts to be targeted in different LUC processes have been implemented. Idealized site-scale simulation has been performed for miombo woodlands in southern Africa assuming an annual land turnover rate of 5 % grid cell area between forest and cropland. The result shows that the model can correctly represent forest recovery and cohort aging arising from agricultural abandonment. Such a land turnover process, even though without a net change in land cover, yields carbon emissions largely due to the imbalance between the fast release from forest clearing and the slow uptake from agricultural abandonment. The simulation with sub-grid land cohorts gives lower emissions than without, mainly because the cleared secondary forests have a lower biomass carbon stock than the mature forests that are otherwise cleared when sub-grid land cohorts are not considered. Over the region of southern Africa, the model is able to account for changes in different forest cohort areas along with the historical changes in different LUC activities, including regrowth of old forests when LUC area decreases. Our developments provide possibilities to account for continental or global forest demographic change resulting from past anthropogenic and

  8. What is dental ecology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuozzo, Frank P; Sauther, Michelle L

    2012-06-01

    Teeth have long been used as indicators of primate ecology. Early work focused on the links between dental morphology, diet, and behavior, with more recent years emphasizing dental wear, microstructure, development, and biogeochemistry, to understand primate ecology. Our study of Lemur catta at the Beza Mahafaly Special Reserve, Madagascar, has revealed an unusual pattern of severe tooth wear and frequent tooth loss, primarily the result of consuming a fallback food for which these primates are not dentally adapted. Interpreting these data was only possible by combining our areas of expertise (dental anatomy [FC] and primate ecology [MS]). By integrating theoretical, methodological, and applied aspects of both areas of research, we adopted the term "dental ecology"-defined as the broad study of how teeth respond to the environment. Specifically, we view dental ecology as an interpretive framework using teeth as a vehicle for understanding an organism's ecology, which builds upon earlier work, but creates a new synthesis of anatomy and ecology that is only possible with detailed knowledge of living primates. This framework includes (1) identifying patterns of dental pathology and tooth use-wear, within the context of feeding ecology, behavior, habitat variation, and anthropogenic change, (2) assessing ways in which dental development and biogeochemical signals can reflect habitat, environmental change and/or stress, and (3) how dental microstructure and macro-morphology are adapted to, and reflect feeding ecology. Here we define dental ecology, provide a short summary of the development of this perspective, and place our new work into this context. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Modelling hydrological changes in surface in relation with anthropogenic drivers and consequences on human health and local economic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandoz, Alain; Leblond, Agnès; Boutron, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    of the watershed. The modeling also performed to simulate a change in rainfall locally to measure hydrological and environmental consequences. According to these scenarios, it was possible to map the potential areas of mosquitoes breeding sites (presence / absence of mosquitoes) and their impact on urban populations in terms of health risks and nuisance. This territory represents many interests for decision-makers interested in issues of governance and renaturation. To improve the inclusion of better water governance and territories, as well as facilitate dynamic annealing, it might be necessary to help decision-makers having a better knowledge of the impact of human drivers on water management on the territory. This increased knowledge would also enable local decision-makers to improve their awareness of the heritage and biodiversity of wetlands. This project was funded by the French Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy as part of the projects Water and Territories.

  10. Identifying socio-ecological networks in rural-urban gradients: Diagnosis of a changing cultural landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaiz-Schmitz, C; Schmitz, M F; Herrero-Jáuregui, C; Gutiérrez-Angonese, J; Pineda, F D; Montes, C

    2018-01-15

    Socio-ecological systems maintain reciprocal interactions between biophysical and socioeconomic structures. As a result of these interactions key essential services for society emerge. Urban expansion is a direct driver of land change and cause serious shifts in socio-ecological relationships and the associated lifestyles. The framework of rural-urban gradients has proved to be a powerful tool for ecological research about urban influences on ecosystems and on sociological issues related to social welfare. However, to date there has not been an attempt to achieve a classification of municipalities in rural-urban gradients based on socio-ecological interactions. In this paper, we developed a methodological approach that allows identifying and classifying a set of socio-ecological network configurations in the Region of Madrid, a highly dynamic cultural landscape considered one of the European hotspots in urban development. According to their socio-ecological links, the integrated model detects four groups of municipalities, ordered along a rural-urban gradient, characterized by their degree of biophysical and socioeconomic coupling and different indicators of landscape structure and social welfare. We propose the developed model as a useful tool to improve environmental management schemes and land planning from a socio-ecological perspective, especially in territories subject to intense urban transformations and loss of rurality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. [Spatial and temporal changes of the ecological vulnerability in a serious soil erosion area, Southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Xiong; Yu, Kun Yong; Liu, Jian; Yang, Su Ping; He, Ping; Deng, Yang Bo; Yu, Xin Yan; Chen, Zhang Hao

    2016-03-01

    Research on eco-environment vulnerability assessment contributes to the ecological environmental conservation and restoration. With Changting County as the study area, this paper selec-ted 7 indicators including slope, soil type, multi-year average precipitation, elevation deviate degree, normalized difference vegetation index, population density and land use type to build ecological vulnerability assessment system by using multicollinearity diagnostics analysis approach. The quantitative assessment of ecological vulnerability in 1999, 2006 and 2014 was calculated by using entropy weight method and comprehensive index method. The changes of the temporal-spatial distribution of ecological vulnerability were also analyzed. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability level index (EVLI) decreased overall but increased locally from 1999 to 2014. The average EVLI values in 1999, 2006 and 2014 were 0.4533±0.1216, 0.4160±0.1111 and 0.3916±0.1139, respectively, indicating that the ecological vulnerability in Changting County was at the moderate grade. The EVLI decreased from 2.92 in 1999 to 2.38 in 2006 and 2.13 in 2014. The spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability was high inside but low outside. The high vulnerability areas were distributed mainly in Hetian Town and Tingzhou Town, where the slope was less than 15° and the altitude was lower than 500 m. During the study period, Sanzhou Town had the largest decreasing range of EVLI while Tingzhou Town had the lowest.

  12. Continental cichlid radiations: functional diversity reveals the role of changing ecological opportunity in the Neotropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbour, Jessica Hilary; López-Fernández, Hernán

    2016-08-17

    Adaptive radiations have been hypothesized to contribute broadly to the diversity of organisms. Models of adaptive radiation predict that ecological opportunity and ecological release, the availability of empty ecological niches and the response by adapting lineages to occupy them, respectively, drive patterns of phenotypic and lineage diversification. Adaptive radiations driven by 'ecological opportunity' are well established in island systems; it is less clear if ecological opportunity influences continent-wide diversification. We use Neotropical cichlid fishes to test if variation in rates of functional evolution is consistent with changing ecological opportunity. Across a functional morphological axis associated with ram-suction feeding traits, evolutionary rates declined through time as lineages diversified in South America. Evolutionary rates of ram-suction functional morphology also appear to have accelerated as cichlids colonized Central America and encountered renewed opportunity. Our results suggest that ecological opportunity may play an important role in shaping patterns of morphological diversity of even broadly distributed lineages like Neotropical cichlids. © 2016 The Author(s).

  13. The Futures Wheel: A method for exploring the implications of social-ecological change

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.N. Bengston

    2015-01-01

    Change in social-ecological systems often produces a cascade of unanticipated consequences. Natural resource professionals and other stakeholders need to understand the possible implications of cascading change to prepare for it. The Futures Wheel is a "smart group" method that uses a structured brainstorming process to uncover and evaluate multiple levels of...

  14. Program on ecosystem change and society: An international research strategy for integrated social-ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carpenter, S.R.; Folke, C.; Norström, A.V.; Olsson, O.; Schultz, L.; Agarwal, B.; Balvanera, P.; Campbell, B.; Castilla, J.C.; Cramer, W.; DeFries, R.; Eyzaguirre, P.; Hughes, T.P.; Polasky, S.; Sanusi, Z.A.; Scholes, R.J.; Spierenburg, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    The Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), a new initiative within the ICSU global change programs, aims to integrate research on the stewardship of social-ecological systems, the services they generate, and the relationships among natural capital, human wellbeing, livelihoods, inequality

  15. Program on ecosystem change and society: an international research strategy for integrated social–ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carpenter, S.R; Folke, C.; Nordström, A.; Olsson, O.; Schultz, L.; Agarwal, B.; Balvanera, P.; Campbell, B.; Castilla, J.C.; Cramer, W.; DeFries, R.; Eyzaguirre, P.; Hughes, T.P.; Polasky, S.; Sanusi, Z.; Spierenburg, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    The Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), a new initiative within the ICSU global change programs, aims to integrate research on the stewardship of social-ecological systems, the services they generate, and the relationships among natural capital, human wellbeing, livelihoods, inequality

  16. Climate-driven changes in the ecological stoichiometry of aquatic ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Waal, D.B.; Verschoor, A.M.; Verspagen, J.M.H.; van Donk, E.; Huisman, J.

    2010-01-01

    Advances in ecological stoichiometry, a rapidly expanding research field investigating the elemental composition of organisms and their environment, have shed new light on the impacts of climate change on freshwater and marine ecosystems. Current changes in the Earth's climate alter the availability

  17. Community ecology, climate change and ecohydrology in desert grassland and shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew Daniel Petrie

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation explores the climate, ecology and hydrology of Chihuahuan Desert ecosystems in the context of global climate change. In coming decades, the southwestern United States is projected to experience greater temperature-driven aridity, possible small decreases in annual precipitation, and a later onset of summer monsoon rainfall. These changes may have...

  18. Climate change as an ecosystem architect: implications to rare plant ecology, conservation, and restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constance I. Millar

    2003-01-01

    Recent advances in earth system sciences have revealed significant new information relevant to rare plant ecology and conservation. Analysis of climate change at high resolution with new and precise proxies of paleotemperatures reveals a picture over the past two million years of oscillatory climate change operating simultaneously at multiple timescales. Low-frequency...

  19. Exploring the role of traditional ecological knowledge in climate change initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsten Vinyeta; Kathy. Lynn

    2013-01-01

    Indigenous populations are projected to face disproportionate impacts as a result of climate change in comparison to nonindigenous populations. For this reason, many American Indian and Alaska Native tribes are identifying and implementing culturally appropriate strategies to assess climate impacts and adapt to projected changes. Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK...

  20. Can Microbial Ecology and Mycorrhizal Functioning Inform Climate Change Models?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hofmockel, Kirsten; Hobbie, Erik

    2017-07-31

    Our funded research focused on soil organic matter dynamics and plant-microbe interactions by examining the role of belowground processes and mechanisms across scales, including decomposition of organic molecules, microbial interactions, and plant-microbe interactions associated with a changing climate. Research foci included mycorrhizal mediated priming of soil carbon turnover, organic N use and depolymerization by free-living microbes and mycorrhizal fungi, and the use of isotopes as additional constraints for improved modeling of belowground processes. This work complemented the DOE’s mandate to understand both the consequences of atmospheric and climatic change for key ecosystems and the feedbacks on C cycling.

  1. Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Brown, Christopher J.

    2015-12-10

    Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global dataset of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that: (1) re-analyses of existing time-series state how the existing datasets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates and; (4) that new time series be designed to include detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the

  2. Future ecological studies of Brazilian headwater streams under global-changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Callisto

    Full Text Available This paper results from discussions triggered during the "Stream Ecology Symposium" that took place at the XIII Congress of the Brazilian Society of Limnology in September of 2011 in Natal, Brazil. Based on our experiences, we have raised several questions regarding ecological studies of headwater streams facing threats under global-changes and proposed numerous subjects to be addressed in future studies in Brazil. These studies deal with the necessity of knowing species biology and the elaboration of models to assess changes (which implies the availability of time-series or large-scale data sets; the ecology of riparian zones and the interchange of materials and energy across the land-water boundaries; forest conversions and standardized sampling strategies and data treatment to assess global change.

  3. Ecological change on California's Channel Islands from the Pleistocene to the Anthropocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick, Torben C.; Sillett, T. Scott; Ghalambor, Cameron K.; Hofman, Courtney A.; Ralls, Katherine; Anderson, R. Scott; Boser, Christina L.; Braje, Todd J.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Chesser, R. Terry; Collins, Paul W.; Erlandson, Jon M.; Faulkner, Kate R.; Fleischer, Robert; Funk, W. Chris; Galipeau, Russell; Huston, Ann; King, Julie; Laughrin, Lyndal L.; Maldonado, Jesus; McEachern, Kathryn; Muhs, Daniel R.; Newsome, Seth D.; Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Still, Christopher; Morrison, Scott A.

    2014-01-01

    Historical ecology is becoming an important focus in conservation biology and offers a promising tool to help guide ecosystem management. Here, we integrate data from multiple disciplines to illuminate the past, present, and future of biodiversity on California's Channel Islands, an archipelago that has undergone a wide range of land-use and ecological changes. Our analysis spans approximately 20,000 years, from before human occupation and through Native American hunter–gatherers, commercial ranchers and fishers, the US military, and other land managers. We demonstrate how long-term, interdisciplinary research provides insight into conservation decisions, such as setting ecosystem restoration goals, preserving rare and endemic taxa, and reducing the impacts of climate change on natural and cultural resources. We illustrate the importance of historical perspectives for understanding modern patterns and ecological change and present an approach that can be applied generally in conservation management planning.

  4. Vegetation change: a reunifying concept in plant ecology

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Davis, M. A.; Pergl, Jan; Truscott, A.; Kollmann, J.; Bakker, J. P.; Domenech, R.; Prach, Karel; Prieur-Richard, A.; Veeneklaas, R. M.; Pyšek, Petr; del Moral, R.; Hobbs, R. J.; Collins, S. L.; Pickett, S. T. A.; Reich, P. B.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 7, - (2005), s. 69-76 ISSN 1433-8319 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA206/02/0617 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : vegetation succession * climate change * plant invasions Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 3.053, year: 2005

  5. Effects of climate change on ecological disturbances [Chapter 8

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielle M. Malesky; Barbara J. Bentz; Gary R. Brown; Andrea R. Brunelle; John M. Buffington; Linda M. Chappell; R. Justin DeRose; John C. Guyon; Carl L. Jorgensen; Rachel A. Loehman; Laura L. Lowrey; Ann M. Lynch; Marek Matyjasik; Joel D. McMillin; Javier E. Mercado; Jesse L. Morris; Jose F. Negron; Wayne G. Padgett; Robert A. Progar; Carol B. Randall

    2018-01-01

    This chapter describes disturbance regimes in the Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) region, and potential shifts in these regimes as a consequence of observed and projected climate change. The term "disturbance regime" describes the general temporal and spatial characteristics of a disturbance agent (e.g., insects, disease, fire, weather, human...

  6. Political ecology of land use change in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novira, Nina

    2014-05-01

    Indonesia had once around 10% of the world's rain forest. Many accuse shifting cultivation and poverty to be responsible to tropical deforestation and land use change. Without denying the importance of these factors, this paper tries to see the problem from a different angel. Massive deforestation first took place when the Dutch colonials decided to develop coffee, tea and later rubber and oil palm plantation in the late 19th century. During the Independence Era, land use change can be divided into 3 periods: 1950 - 1975 period of agricultural expansion, mainly government program; 1975 - 1990 period of commercial logging concession, mainly private concession with government's endorsement; and 1990 to date period of land use change to cash crop, settlement, and business area, a more complex process involving private company, government program and endorsement, and personal action. The first two periodization shows clearly that land use change in Indonesia has a strong connection to political decision and power at certain period of time, which also influenced by international market tendencies at the given period. The last period has actually not so much difference. This paper seeks to explain land use change in Indonesia especially in the last period of 1990 to present. This period can be divided again into 3 sub-periods: later New Order Era, early Reformation Era, and the Regional Autonomy Era. The case study was conducted in Labuhan Batu Utara District of North Sumatera. Semi-structured interview was done with various actors in different levels. It is argued that government's policies and arrangements along with government's reaction to international market and politics plays a substantially important role in land use change. In the first sub-period (1990 - 1998), it is the fading power of Suharto's regime that increases farmers' courage to violate the strict prohibition of rice field conversion to other uses. Another important factor is the introduction of

  7. Realization of investigations to an ecological monitoring of gene technically changed organisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heissenberger, A.; Miklau, M.; Gaugitsch, H.; Kasal, V.; Loos, S.; Traxler, A.; Dolezel, M.; Pascher, K.; Kuffner, M.

    2003-04-01

    The main aim of this study was to develop a basis for an ecological monitoring with the help of two case studies, oilseed rape and maize. Theoretical concepts, which have been developed during the last years have been checked in practice. In order to define and investigate the 'environment' in the context of EU directive 2001/18/EC the area of investigation has been enlarged. Not only the field and its surroundings but the whole surrounding landscape was investigated. The biodiversity of the agricultural landscape is not only defined by interactions of animals and plants but also by environments like dry grasslands or small forests which are of anthropogenic origin or are under high anthropogenic influence. A separation of species-rich natural landscapes and intensively used agricultural areas is often not given. In reality they are frequently in close neighborhood. In one of the test areas (Zurndorf) an important protected area (also Natura 2000 area) is situated in an agricultural area. The influence of such natural habitats can clearly be shown in agricultural areas (feeding by birds or insects, etc.). In this study the habitats have been evaluated according to uniform nature protection aspects. The habitats have been investigated and classified according to the 'Red List of Types of Bio-tops' and species counts and classification of plants and animals have been performed. It could be shown that the composition of species (especially endangered species) varies highly among the test areas. Nevertheless all areas and not only hot spots in biodiversity have to be monitored if a representative surveillance should be performed. The use of maps and arial photographs, and a first rough field investigation was necessary to define and choose the areas of interest. This was a major tool in the investigations carried out in this study. This study also showed the limits of an ecological monitoring. While a case specific monitoring can efficiently be performed if the

  8. The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2009-01-01

    The projected global increase in the distribution and prevalence of infectious diseases with climate change suggests a pending societal crisis. The subject is increasingly attracting the attention of health professionals and climate-change scientists, particularly with respect to malaria and other vector-transmitted human diseases. The result has been the emergence of a crisis discipline, reminiscent of the early phases of conservation biology. Latitudinal, altitudinal, seasonal, and interannual associations between climate and disease along with historical and experimental evidence suggest that climate, along with many other factors, can affect infectious diseases in a nonlinear fashion. However, although the globe is significantly warmer than it was a century ago, there is little evidence that climate change has already favored infectious diseases. While initial projections suggested dramatic future increases in the geographic range of infectious diseases, recent models predict range shifts in disease distributions, with little net increase in area. Many factors can affect infectious disease, and some may overshadow the effects of climate.

  9. AEDT: A new concept for ecological dynamics in the ever-changing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesson, Peter

    2017-05-01

    The important concept of equilibrium has always been controversial in ecology, but a new, more general concept, an asymptotic environmentally determined trajectory (AEDT), overcomes many concerns with equilibrium by realistically incorporating long-term climate change while retaining much of the predictive power of a stable equilibrium. A population or ecological community is predicted to approach its AEDT, which is a function of time reflecting environmental history and biology. The AEDT invokes familiar questions and predictions but in a more realistic context in which consideration of past environments and a future changing profoundly due to human influence becomes possible. Strong applications are also predicted in population genetics, evolution, earth sciences, and economics.

  10. Elucidation of circulation mechanism on climatic changing vapor caused by water field ecology system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harada, Shigeki; Doi, Taeko; Watanabe, Masataka; Inamori, Yuhei

    1999-01-01

    As climatic change caused by increase of carbon dioxide amounts emitted by industrial development is much anxious, it is well-known that water field ecology system relaxes change of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, which is a climatic changing gas and has a closed relationship to the earth warming, is caught from atmosphere in the water field ecology system to be fixed as organic carbon and constitutes a starting point of food chains thereafter. In this study, in order to examine change of carbon dioxide, which is one of climatic changing gas or greenhouse effect gas caused by water field ecology system, 14-C was added to microcosm, which constructs a water field ecology system model, to measure 14-C amounts in each organism. As a result, it was found that carbon transfer in the system could be examined. And, it was also found that it was possible to understand more precise flow of substances and to elucidate quantitatively absorption of carbon dioxide and flow of carbon thereafter under different conditions, by future attempts on upgrading precision such as changing amounts of adding RI, and so forth. (G.K.)

  11. A GIS BASED EVALUATION OF LAND USE CHANGES AND ECOLOGICAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poppy Indrayani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the Makassar region is a significant land use planning and management issue, and has many impacts on the ecological function and structure landscape. With the development and infrastructure initiatives mostly around the urban centers, the urbanization and sprawl would impact the environment and the natural resources. Therefore, environmental management and careful strategic spatial planning in landscape ecological network is crucial when aiming for sustainable development. In this paper, the impacts of land use changes from 1997 to 2012 on the landscape ecological connectivity in the Makassar region were evaluated using Geographic Information System (GIS. The resulted GIS analysis clearly showed that land use changes occurring in the Makassar region have caused profound changes in landscape pattern. The spatial model had a predictive capability allowing the quantitative assessment and comparison of the impacts resulting from different land use on the ecological connectivity index. The results had an effective performance in identifying the vital ecological areas and connectivity prior to development plan in areas.

  12. Development of ecological indicators of climate change based on lichen functional diversity

    OpenAIRE

    Matos, Paula Sofia Antunes

    2016-01-01

    Growing evidence shows us that climate has changed in the recent decades, and the scenario for the future will most likely worsen. A set of climate variables is being developed to monitor climate change, but this is not enough to keep track its effects on ecosystems. It’s imperative to understand and quantify how ecosystems functioning are affected by and respond to these changes, and ecological indicators based on biodiversity metrics are one of the tools to do this. The...

  13. Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Shankar Adhikari; Himlal Baral; Craig Nitschke

    2018-01-01

    Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS) to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being...

  14. Culturally compelling strategies for behaviour change: a social ecology model and case study in malaria prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panter-Brick, Catherine; Clarke, Sian E; Lomas, Heather; Pinder, Margaret; Lindsay, Steve W

    2006-06-01

    Behaviour change is notoriously difficult to initiate and sustain, and the reasons why efforts to promote healthy behaviours fail are coming under increasing scrutiny. To be successful, health interventions should build on existing practices, skills and priorities, recognise the constraints on human behaviour, and either feature community mobilisation or target those most receptive to change. Furthermore, interventions should strive to be culturally compelling, not merely culturally appropriate: they must engage local communities and nestle within social and ecological landscapes. In this paper, we propose a social ecology perspective to make explicit the links between intention to change, actual behaviour change, and subsequent health impact, as relating to both theory-based models and practical strategies for triggering behaviour change. A social ecology model focuses attention on the contexts of behaviour when designing, implementing or critically evaluating interventions. As a case study, we reflect on a community-directed intervention in rural Gambia designed to reduce malaria by promoting a relatively simple and low-cost behaviour: repairing holes in mosquito bednets. In phase 1, contextual information on bednet usage, transactions and repairs (the 'social lives' of nets) was documented. In phase 2 (intervention), songs were composed and posters displayed by community members to encourage repairs, creating a sense of ownership and a compelling medium for the transmission of health messages. In phase 3 (evaluation), qualitative and quantitative data showed that household responses were particularly rapid and extensive, with significant increase in bednet repairs (psocial ecology-of behaviour practices that are the bedrock of health interventions.

  15. Exploring dust emission responses to land cover change using an ecological land classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galloza, Magda S.; Webb, Nicholas P.; Bleiweiss, Max P.; Winters, Craig; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Ayers, Eldon

    2018-06-01

    Despite efforts to quantify the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion, assessment uncertainty remains large. We address this uncertainty by evaluating the application of ecological site concepts and state-and-transition models (STMs) for detecting and quantitatively describing the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion. We apply a dust emission model over a rangeland study area in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, New Mexico, USA, and evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of modelled horizontal sediment mass flux and dust emission in the context of ecological sites and their vegetation states; representing a diversity of land cover types. Our results demonstrate how the impacts of land cover change on dust emission can be quantified, compared across land cover classes, and interpreted in the context of an ecological model that encapsulates land management intensity and change. Results also reveal the importance of established weaknesses in the dust model soil characterisation and drag partition scheme, which appeared generally insensitive to the impacts of land cover change. New models that address these weaknesses, coupled with ecological site concepts and field measurements across land cover types, could significantly reduce assessment uncertainties and provide opportunities for identifying land management options.

  16. Changing communication ecologies in rural, peri-urban and urban Kenya

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Poul Erik; Gustafsson, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    This article aims to discuss changing media ecologies in rural, peri-urban and urban Kenya. The article is based on a comprehensive baseline study of 800 households carried out in October 2014 in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya. The survey recorded media access and use and civic engagement as well...... as demographic data. The findings suggest that media ecologies in rural, peri-urban as well as urban Kenya have undergone dramatic changes. The much hyped and unprecedented spread of mobile telephony has taken place simultaneously with the introduction of or increased access to radio and television including...... satellite television. Different emerging communication ecologies can be identified often with radio providing a solid foundation and in different ways combined with television and mobile phones. Even though mobile ownership, for example, has increased in all segments and areas, gender inequalities...

  17. A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Britta L Timpane-Padgham

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9, population- (6, community- (7, ecosystem- (7, or process-level attributes (16. Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1 including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2 considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3 certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to

  18. A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpane-Padgham, Britta L; Beechie, Tim; Klinger, Terrie

    2017-01-01

    Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9), population- (6), community- (7), ecosystem- (7), or process-level attributes (16). Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1) including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2) considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3) certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to confer

  19. Ecological risk caused by land use change in the coastal zone: a case study in the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di, X H; Wang, Y D; Hou, X Y

    2014-01-01

    China's coastal zone plays an important role in ecological services production and social-economic development; however, extensive and intensive land resource utilization and land use change have lead to high ecological risk in this area during last decade. Regional ecological risk assessment can provide fundamental knowledge and scientific basis for better understanding of the relationship between regional landscape ecosystem and human activities or climate changes, facilitating the optimization strategy of land use structure and improving the ecological risk prevention capability. In this paper, the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone is selected as the study site, which is undergoing a new round of coastal zone exploitation and has endured substantial land use change in the past decade. Land use maps of 2000, 2005 and 2010 were generated based on Landsat images by visual interpretation method, and the ecological risk index was then calculated. The index was 0.3314, 0.3461 and 0.3176 in 2000, 2005 and 2010 respectively, which showed a positive transition of regional ecological risk in 2005

  20. The Role of the Internet in Changing Knowledge Ecologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalantzis, Mary

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available To a greater extent than is often acknowledged, the modern scientific and university-based knowledge system is a creature of the society of the printing press. Until the turn of the twentyfirst century, print was the medium of scholarly communication. Then, quite suddenly at the turn of the twenty-first century, digital text begins to displace print as the primary means of access to the knowledge of academicians. This article explores some of the consequences of this change. To what extent do digital technologies of representation and communication reproduce the knowledge systems of the half-millennium long history of the modern university or do they disrupt and transform them? To answer this question, this article will explore key aspects of contemporary transformations, not just in the textual forms of digital representation, but the emerging social forms that digitisation reflects, affords and supports. This we call the “social web”, a term we use to describe the kinds of relationships to knowledge and culture that are emerging in the era of pervasively interconnected computing. What, then, are the impacts and potentials of these changes on the processes of formation of new knowledge?Más allá de lo que suele admitirse, el moderno sistema de conocimiento científico y universitario es una creación de la sociedad de la imprenta. Antes de llegar el siglo XXI, la imprenta era el canal de comunicación académica. Entonces, de manera bastante repentina con el cambio de siglo, los textos digitales empezaron a sustituir a la imprenta como el medio principal por el que los académicos acceden al conocimiento. Este artículo analiza algunas de las consecuencias de este cambio. ¿Hasta qué punto las tecnologías digitales de representación y comunicación reproducen los sistemas de conocimiento utilizados en el último medio milenio de historia de la moderna universidad? ¿O quizás la interrumpen y la transforman? Para responder a esta

  1. A first look at the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the future delivery of fluvial sediment to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, Stephen E; Dunn, Frances E; Nicholls, Robert J; Rahman, Munsur; Riddy, Liam

    2015-09-01

    We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) mega-delta. The model was parameterised using high-quality topographic data and forced with daily temperature and precipitation data obtained from downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the period 1971-2100. Three perturbed RCM model runs were selected to quantify the potential range of future climate conditions associated with the SRES A1B scenario. Fluvial sediment delivery rates to the GBM delta associated with these climate data sets are projected to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, albeit with the magnitude of the increase varying across the two catchments. Of the two study basins, the Brahmaputra's fluvial sediment load is predicted to be more sensitive to future climate change. Specifically, by the middle part of the 21(st) century, our model results suggest that sediment loads increase (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline period) over a range of between 16% and 18% (depending on climate model run) for the Ganges, but by between 25% and 28% for the Brahmaputra. The simulated increase in sediment flux emanating from the two catchments further increases towards the end of the 21(st) century, reaching between 34% and 37% for the Ganges and between 52% and 60% for the Brahmaputra by the 2090s. The variability in these changes across the three climate change simulations is small compared to the changes, suggesting they represent a significant increase. The new data obtained in this study offer the first estimate of whether and how anthropogenic climate change may affect the delivery of fluvial sediment to the GBM delta, informing assessments of the future sustainability and resilience of one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas. Specifically, such significant increases in future sediment loads could increase the resilience

  2. Millennial-scale vegetation changes in the tropical Andes using ecological grouping and ordination methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urrego, D.H.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Rama-Corredor, O.; Martrat, B.; Grimalt, J.O.; Thompson, L.; Bush, M.B.; González-Carranza, Z.; Hanselman, J.; Valencia, B.; Velásquez-Ruiz, C.

    2016-01-01

    We compare eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from northern and southern sites in the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the last 30 000 years, with particular emphasis on the Pleistocene to Holocene transition. We explore ecological grouping and downcore

  3. [Impact of new trend of ecological environment changes on growth, reproduction and diffusion of Oncomelania hupensis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juan, Xie; Li-Yong, Wen

    2016-03-07

    Oncomelania hupensis is the only intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum , and the growth, reproduction and distribution of O.hupensis play an important role in schistosomiasis prevalence and transmission. This article reviews the influence of the new trend of ecological environment changes on the growth, reproduction and diffusion of the snails.

  4. Ascribing value to ecological processes: an economic view of environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rex H. Schaberg; Thomas P. Holmes; Karen J. Lee; Robert C. Abt

    1999-01-01

    Decisions made by individual landowners and public land managers can have a significant impact on the rates of ecological change. Interdisciplinary cooperation is desirable if economists and ecologists are to correctly interpret the impacts of individual choices for landscape management. This paper reports results from two studies of the residents of North Carolina...

  5. Process-based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Cuddington; M.-J. Fortin; L.R. Gerber; A. Hastings; A. Liebhold; M. OConnor; C. Ray

    2013-01-01

    Several modeling approaches can be used to guide management decisions. However, some approaches are better fitted than others to address the problem of prediction under global change. Process-based models, which are based on a theoretical understanding of relevant ecological processes, provide a useful framework to incorporate specific responses to altered...

  6. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence N. Hudson; Joseph Wunderle M.; And Others

    2016-01-01

    The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to...

  7. Effects of Conceptual Change Text Based Instruction on Ecology, Attitudes toward Biology and Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çetin, Gülcan; Ertepinar, Hamide; Geban, Ömer

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the conceptual change text based instruction on ninth grade students' understanding of ecological concepts, and attitudes toward biology and environment. Participants were 82 ninth grade students in a public high school in the Northwestern Turkey. A treatment was employed over a five-week…

  8. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette; Kone, Mouhamadou; Kőrösi, Ádám; Krauss, Jochen; Kumar, Ajith; Kumar, Raman; Kurz, David J; Kutt, Alex S; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Lara, Francisco; Lasky, Jesse R; Latta, Steven C; Laurance, William F; Lavelle, Patrick; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Lehouck, Valérie; Lencinas, María V; Lentini, Pia E; Letcher, Susan G; Li, Qi; Litchwark, Simon A; Littlewood, Nick A; Liu, Yunhui; Lo-Man-Hung, Nancy; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Luskin, Matthew S; MacSwiney G, M Cristina; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Malone, Louise A; Malonza, Patrick K; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Mandujano, Salvador; Måren, Inger E; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marsh, Charles J; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Martínez Pastur, Guillermo; Moreno Mateos, David; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mazimpaka, Vicente; McCarthy, Jennifer L; McCarthy, Kyle P; McFrederick, Quinn S; McNamara, Sean; Medina, Nagore G; Medina, Rafael; Mena, Jose L; Mico, Estefania; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Miranda-Esquivel, Daniel R; Moir, Melinda L; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Munira, A Nur; Muoñz-Alonso, Antonio; Munyekenye, B F; Naidoo, Robin; Naithani, A; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nakamura, Akihiro; Nakashima, Yoshihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Navarro-Iriarte, Luis; Ndang'ang'a, Paul K; Neuschulz, Eike L; Ngai, Jacqueline T; Nicolas, Violaine; Nilsson, Sven G; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Norton, David A; Nöske, Nicole M; Nowakowski, A Justin; Numa, Catherine; O'Dea, Niall; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Oduro, William; Oertli, Sabine; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Christopher Omamoke; Oostra, Vicencio; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Otavo, Samuel Eduardo; Page, Navendu V; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Parry, Luke; Pe'er, Guy; Pearman, Peter B; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Pélissier, Raphaël; Peres, Carlos A; Peri, Pablo L; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Peters, Marcell K; Pethiyagoda, Rohan S; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Pillsbury, Finn C; Pincheira-Ulbrich, Jimmy; Pineda, Eduardo; Pino, Joan; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Plumptre, A J; Poggio, Santiago L; Politi, Natalia; Pons, Pere; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Ramesh, B R; Ramirez-Pinilla, Martha P; Ranganathan, Jai; Rasmussen, Claus; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Rey Benayas, José M; Rey-Velasco, Juan Carlos; Reynolds, Chevonne; Ribeiro, Danilo Bandini; Richards, Miriam H; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Ríos, Rodrigo Macip; Robinson, Richard; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rös, Matthias; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roth, Dana S; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Rubio, André V; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sam, Katerina; Samnegård, Ulrika; Santana, Joana; Santos, Xavier; Savage, Jade; Schellhorn, Nancy A; Schilthuizen, Menno; Schmiedel, Ute; Schmitt, Christine B; Schon, Nicole L; Schüepp, Christof; Schumann, Katharina; Schweiger, Oliver; Scott, Dawn M; Scott, Kenneth A; Sedlock, Jodi L; Seefeldt, Steven S; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Shannon, Graeme; Sheil, Douglas; Sheldon, Frederick H; Shochat, Eyal; Siebert, Stefan J; Silva, Fernando A B; Simonetti, Javier A; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith, Jo; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Soto Quiroga, Grimaldo; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Starzomski, Brian M; Stefanescu, Constanti; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stouffer, Philip C; Stout, Jane C; Strauch, Ayron M; Struebig, Matthew J; Su, Zhimin; Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Sugiura, Shinji; Summerville, Keith S; Sung, Yik-Hei; Sutrisno, Hari; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teder, Tiit; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tiitsaar, Anu; Todd, Jacqui H; Tonietto, Rebecca K; Torre, Ignasi; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Uehara-Prado, Marcio; Urbina-Cardona, Nicolas; Vallan, Denis; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Verdasca, Maria João; Verdú, José R; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Virgilio, Massimiliano; Vu, Lien Van; Waite, Edward M; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Hua-Feng; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Weller, Britta; Wells, Konstans; Westphal, Catrin; Wiafe, Edward D; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Wolters, Volkmar; Woodcock, Ben A; Wu, Jihua; Wunderle, Joseph M; Yamaura, Yuichi; Yoshikura, Satoko; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Zeidler, Juliane; Zou, Fasheng; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of

  9. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity ...

  10. The influence of climate change on the global distribution and fate processes of anthropogenic persistent organic pollutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallenborn, Roland; Halsall, Crispin; Dellong, Maud; Carlsson, Pernilla

    2012-11-01

    The effect of climate change on the global distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is of growing interest to both scientists and policy makers alike. The impact of warmer temperatures and the resulting changes to earth system processes on chemical fate are, however, unclear, although there are a growing number of studies that are beginning to examine these impacts and changes in a quantitative way. In this review, we examine broad areas where changes are occurring or are likely to occur with regard to the environmental cycling and fate of chemical contaminants. For this purpose we are examining scientific information from long-term monitoring data with particular emphasis on the Arctic, to show apparent changes in chemical patterns and behaviour. In addition, we examine evidence of changing chemical processes for a number of environmental compartments and indirect effects of climate change on contaminant emissions and behaviour. We also recommend areas of research to address knowledge gaps. In general, our findings indicate that the indirect consequences of climate change (i.e. shifts in agriculture, resource exploitation opportunities, etc.) will have a more marked impact on contaminants distribution and fate than direct climate change.

  11. Hmong demographic changes in Laos: causes and ecological consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ireson, W R

    1995-10-01

    This study of the Hmong in Laos is based on ethnographic research conducted during a three week stay in the Nong Het district of Xieng Khouang province. Information was collected on the household agricultural economy, village and household movement, family composition and change, cropping and animal husbandry, and environmental resources. The study area east of the Mekong River and near the Vietnamese border is an infrequently studied area. Findings differ from the ethnographic literature that portrays the Hmong as migrating frequently as swidden fields are exhausted, as living in large extended families, and as polygynous. The Hmong are the second largest minority in Laos (231,000), but are only 0.1% of Thailand's total population (90,000). There are 558,000 Hmong in Vietnam, but 5 million in China. Most rural Hmong in Laos produce opium as a necessary crop for sustaining their household farming economy. Although areas near the study area were involved in major military action during 1960-73, the study area received minimal disruption. Four studies of the Hmong in Laos and Thailand indicated that the Hmong stayed at one residence about 7 years, that residence varied from 6-16 years, and that settlements were short-lived. Household size ranged from 4 to 47 households. The Hmong in this study were more sedentary. In 1990, the villages averaged about 45 households. The population ranged in age from 19 years to 87 years. The Hmong had a high birth rate and a high mortality rate due to poor diet and lack of adequate medical care. 45% of the Nong Het population were aged under 14 years, which suggests a baby boom after the war. The dependency ratio was very high. Polygyny was uncommon. Of the 154 households, the average size was small at 7.40 persons. 71% were nuclear families. Patrilocal residence after marriage was still practiced, but the time spent in the father's home was reduced. The findings suggest that the Hmong are likely to become sedentary due to limits on

  12. Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathis, Moritz; Elizalde, Alberto; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2018-04-01

    Climate change impact studies for the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) make use of various dynamical downscaling strategies in the experimental setup of regional ocean circulation models. Projected change signals from coupled and uncoupled downscalings with different domain sizes and forcing global and regional models show substantial uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate influences of the downscaling strategy on projected changes in the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the NWES. Our results indicate that uncertainties due to different downscaling strategies are similar to uncertainties due to the choice of the parent global model and the downscaling regional model. Downscaled change signals reveal to depend stronger on the downscaling strategy than on the model skills in simulating present-day conditions. Uncoupled downscalings of sea surface temperature (SST) changes are found to be tightly constrained by the atmospheric forcing. The incorporation of coupled air-sea interaction, by contrast, allows the regional model system to develop independently. Changes in salinity show a higher sensitivity to open lateral boundary conditions and river runoff than to coupled or uncoupled atmospheric forcings. Dependencies on the downscaling strategy for changes in SST, salinity, stratification and circulation collectively affect changes in nutrient import and biological primary production.

  13. [Effects of land use structure change on regional ecological health--taking Shapingba County as an example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Cheng; Wei, Chaofu; Gao, Ming; Luo, Guanglian; Jiang, Wei

    2005-12-01

    Land resource is the carrier for the exchange of matter, energy and information flows, while the change velocity and the intensity of land use has strong effects on the ecological processes such as matter circulation, energy flow, and biologic diversity. Land use structure change will alter the type, area, and spatial distribution of ecosystem, and in the meantime, result in the changes of regional ecological health. Employing the principles and methods of landscape ecology, and through endowing relative ecological value to land use type, this paper analyzed the charaeteristics of recent 10 years land use change in Shapingba County of Chongqing, and discussed the effects of land use change on regional ecological health, aimed to provide scientific references for land use planning and sustainable land resource utilization. The results indicated that transformation often occurred among different land use types, and the land use structure in each transformation phase differed quite obviously. Under different land use structure, there was a great disparity in relative ecological value of sub-ecosystems, which played various roles in regional ecological health. In general, the regional relative ecological value embodied both increase and decrease. In the future, the relative ecological value of sub-ecosystem would represent three tendencies, i.e., increase first and decrease then, continuous decrease, and continuous increase. The situation of regional ecological health would gradually become better.

  14. Move it or lose it? The ecological ethics of relocating species under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minteer, Ben A; Collins, James P

    2010-10-01

    Managed relocation (also known as assisted colonization, assisted migration) is one of the more controversial proposals to emerge in the ecological community in recent years. A conservation strategy involving the translocation of species to novel ecosystems in anticipation of range shifts forced by climate change, managed relocation (MR) has divided many ecologists and conservationists, mostly because of concerns about the potential invasion risk of the relocated species in their new environments. While this is indeed an important consideration in any evaluation of MR, moving species across the landscape in response to predicted climate shifts also raises a number of larger and important ethical and policy challenges that need to be addressed. These include evaluating the implications of a more aggressive approach to species conservation, assessing MR as a broader ecological policy and philosophy that departs from longstanding scientific and management goals focused on preserving ecological integrity, and considering MR within a more comprehensive ethical and policy response to climate change. Given the complexity and novelty of many of the issues at stake in the MR debate, a more dynamic and pragmatic approach to ethical analysis and debate is needed to help ecologists, conservationists, and environmental decision makers come to grips with MR and the emerging ethical challenges of ecological policy and management under global environmental change.

  15. Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

    2018-01-01

    Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

  16. The European Water Framework Directive: How Ecological Assumptions Frame Technical and Social Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Steyaert

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The European Water Framework Directive (WFD is built upon significant cognitive developments in the field of ecological science but also encourages active involvement of all interested parties in its implementation. The coexistence in the same policy text of both substantive and procedural approaches to policy development stimulated this research as did our concerns about the implications of substantive ecological visions within the WFD policy for promoting, or not, social learning processes through participatory designs. We have used a qualitative analysis of the WFD text which shows the ecological dimension of the WFD dedicates its quasi-exclusive attention to a particular current of thought in ecosystems science focusing on ecosystems status and stability and considering human activities as disturbance factors. This particular worldview is juxtaposed within the WFD with a more utilitarian one that gives rise to many policy exemptions without changing the general underlying ecological model. We discuss these policy statements in the light of the tension between substantive and procedural policy developments. We argue that the dominant substantive approach of the WFD, comprising particular ecological assumptions built upon "compositionalism," seems to be contradictory with its espoused intention of involving the public. We discuss that current of thought in regard to more functionalist thinking and adaptive management, which offers greater opportunities for social learning, i.e., place a set of interdependent stakeholders in an intersubjective position in which they operate a "social construction" of water problems through the co-production of knowledge.

  17. Viewing the effects of anthropogenic emission control from the change of CO2 concentration observed by GOSAT in China during the 2014 APEC summit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, L.; Zhong, H.; Liu, L.; Yang, S., Sr.

    2016-12-01

    The growth of the global anthropogenic carbon emission stalled in 2014, according to data from International Energy Agency (IEA). This paper presents a practical application of satellite observation for detecting the regional enhancement of CO2 induced by underlying anthropogenic CO2 emissions especially during the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. We collected the column averaged dry air mole fraction (XCO2) data from Greenhouse Observation SATellite (GOSAT) from Jan. 2010 to Dec. 2015, which are provided by Japan GOSAT project team. The spatial change of the 5-year averaged XCO2 derived by gap filling [Zeng et al., TGRS, 2014], as shown in Fig.1, demonstrated that high XCO2prefer to correspond to the most intensive power plants. We calculated the regional contrasts between source and almost without emission (Fig.2), which are defined based on emission and potential temperature. The source, which is defined around Beijing, has many big power plants (Fig.1). The regional contrast showed 1-3 ppm with large seasonal variations while it is the lowest in summer due to influence of biospheric fluxes and especially show abnormal fluctuation in autumn 2014 (Fig.3). XCO2 fell from 398.9 ppm in 15-30 Oct. before APEC to 395.7 ppm during 1-11 Nov. 2014 APEC in source area around Beijing, and the contrast decreased from 4.5 ppm to 1.0 ppm (Table 1). This abnormal decline of XCO2 likely indicate the effects of controlling action for strong local source emissions such as closed many small inefficient coal-fired power plants from the beginning of 2014, banned on burning straw, especially in addition to temporally shut down the big coal-power plants and limiting the number of vehicles running during the APEC summit within the large zone covering the six provinces around Beijing. The large reduction was reported in aerosol of 50% above during the APEC summit (Sun et al., Sci. report, 2016). Our results agree to the potential of satellite observations to

  18. Large increase in dissolved inorganic carbon flux from the Mississippi River to Gulf of Mexico due to climatic and anthropogenic changes over the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Wei; Tian, Hanqin; Tao, Bo; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Cai, Wei-Jun; Lohrenz, Steven E; He, Ruoying; Hopkinson, Charles S

    2015-04-01

    It is recognized that anthropogenic factors have had a major impact on carbon fluxes from land to the ocean during the past two centuries. However, little is known about how future changes in climate, atmospheric CO 2 , and land use may affect riverine carbon fluxes over the 21st century. Using a coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, this study examines potential changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) export from the Mississippi River basin to the Gulf of Mexico during 2010-2099 attributable to climate-related conditions (temperature and precipitation), atmospheric CO 2 , and land use change. Rates of annual DIC export are projected to increase by 65% under the high emission scenario (A2) and 35% under the low emission scenario (B1) between the 2000s and the 2090s. Climate-related changes along with rising atmospheric CO 2 together would account for over 90% of the total increase in DIC export throughout the 21st century. The predicted increase in DIC export from the Mississippi River basin would alter chemistry of the coastal ocean unless appropriate climate mitigation actions are taken in the near future.

  19. Changes in Stream Flow and Their Relationships with Climatic Variations and Anthropogenic Activities in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaojun Gu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Poyang Lake Basin has been suffering from severe water problems such as floods and droughts. This has led to great adverse impacts on local ecosystems and water resource utilization. It is therefore important to understand stream flow changes and their driving factors. In this paper, the dynamics of stream flow and precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin between 1961 and 2012 were evaluated with the Mann–Kendall test, Theil–Sen approaches, Pettitt test, and Pearson’s correlation. Stream flow was measured at the outlets of five major tributaries of Poyang Lake, while precipitation was recorded by fourteen meteorological stations located within the Poyang Lake Basin. Results showed that annual stream flow of all tributaries and the precipitation over the study area had insignificant (P > 0.1 temporal trends and change points, while significant trends and shifts were found in monthly scale. Stream flow concentration indices (SCI at Waizhou, Meigang, and Wanjiabu stations showed significant (P < 0.05 decreasing trends with change points emerging in 1984 at Waizhou and 1978 at Wanjiabu, while there was no significant temporal trend and change point detected for the precipitation concentration indices (PCI. Correlation analysis indicated that area-average stream flow was closely related to area-average precipitation, but area-average SCI was insignificantly correlated with area-average PCI after change point (1984. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO had greater impacts on stream flow than other climate indices, and La Niña events played a more important role in stream flow changes than EI Niño. Human activities, particularly in terms of reservoir constructions, largely altered the intra-annual distribution of stream flow but its effects on the amount of stream flow were relatively low. Results of this study provided a useful reference to regional water resource management and the prevention of flood and drought disasters.

  20. Past climate change and recent anthropogenic activities affect genetic structure and population demography of the greater long-tailed hamster in northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Junbin; Xiao, Zhenlong; Li, Chuanhai; Wang, Fusheng; Liao, Jicheng; Fu, Jinzhong; Zhang, Zhibin

    2015-09-01

    The genetic diversity and the spatial structure of a species are likely consequences of both past and recent evolutionary processes, but relevant studies are still rare in East Asia where the Pleistocene climate has unique influences. In this study, we examined the impact of past climate change and recent anthropogenic activities on the genetic structure and population size of the greater long-tailed hamster (Tscherskia triton), an agricultural rodent pest species in northern China. DNA sequence data of 2 mitochondrial genes and genotypic data of 11 microsatellite DNA loci from 41 populations (545 individuals) were gathered. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses, as well as species distribution modeling and coalescent simulations, were conducted to infer its historical and demographic patterns and processes. Two deeply diverged mitochondrial clades were recovered. A small one was restricted to the Shandong Peninsula while the main clade was further divided into 3 geographic clusters by their microsatellite DNA genotypes: Northwest, North-center and Northeast. Divergence dating indicated a Middle-to-Late Pleistocene divergence between the 2 clades. Demographic analysis indicated that all 3 and pooled populations showed consistent long-period expansions during last glacial period; but not during the Holocene, probably due to the impact of climate warming and human disturbances. Conflicting patterns between mtDNA and microsatellite markers imply an anthropogenic impact on North-center populations due to intensified agricultural cultivation in this region. Our study demonstrated that the impact of past glaciation on organisms in East Asia significantly differs from that of Europe and North America, and human activity is an important factor in determining the genetic diversity of a species, as well as its spatial structure. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  1. Effects of the hippopotamus on the chemistry and ecology of a changing watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stears, Keenan; McCauley, Douglas J; Finlay, Jacques C; Mpemba, James; Warrington, Ian T; Mutayoba, Benezeth M; Power, Mary E; Dawson, Todd E; Brashares, Justin S

    2018-05-29

    Cross-boundary transfers of nutrients can profoundly shape the ecology of recipient systems. The common hippopotamus, Hippopotamus amphibius , is a significant vector of such subsidies from terrestrial to river ecosystems. We compared river pools with high and low densities of H. amphibius to determine how H. amphibius subsidies shape the chemistry and ecology of aquatic communities. Our study watershed, like many in sub-Saharan Africa, has been severely impacted by anthropogenic water abstraction reducing dry-season flow to zero. We conducted observations for multiple years over wet and dry seasons to identify how hydrological variability influences the impacts of H. amphibius During the wet season, when the river was flowing, we detected no differences in water chemistry and nutrient parameters between pools with high and low densities of H. amphibius Likewise, the diversity and abundance of fish and aquatic insect communities were indistinguishable. During the dry season, however, high-density H. amphibiu s pools differed drastically in almost all measured attributes of water chemistry and exhibited depressed fish and insect diversity and fish abundance compared with low-density H. amphibius pools. Scaled up to the entire watershed, we estimate that H. amphibius in this hydrologically altered watershed reduces dry-season fish abundance and indices of gamma-level diversity by 41% and 16%, respectively, but appears to promote aquatic invertebrate diversity. Widespread human-driven shifts in hydrology appear to redefine the role of H. amphibius , altering their influence on ecosystem diversity and functioning in a fashion that may be more severe than presently appreciated.

  2. Environmental risk of climate change and groundwater abstraction on stream ecological conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige; Bøgh, Eva; Jensen, Niels H.

    with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model. The relative and combined impacts on low flows, groundwater levels, and nitrate leaching are quantified and compared to assess the water resource sensitivity...... and risk to stream ecological conditions. We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher...... flows and groundwater levels are of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future...

  3. [Research progress on remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Ming-jun; Zeng, Li-xiong; Xiao, Wen-fa; Zhou, Zhi-xiang; Huang, Zhi-lin; Wang, Peng-cheng; Dian, Yuan-yong

    2014-12-01

    The Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGR area) , one of the most sensitive ecological zones in China, has dramatically changes in ecosystem configurations and services driven by the Three Gorges Engineering Project and its related human activities. Thus, understanding the dynamics of ecosystem configurations, ecological processes and ecosystem services is an attractive and critical issue to promote regional ecological security of the TGR area. The remote sensing of environment is a promising approach to the target and is thus increasingly applied to and ecosystem dynamics of the TGR area on mid- and macro-scales. However, current researches often showed controversial results in ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area due to the differences in remote sensing data, scale, and land-use/cover classification. Due to the complexity of ecological configurations and human activities, challenges still exist in the remote-sensing based research of ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area. The purpose of this review was to summarize the research advances in remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area. The status, challenges and trends of ecological and environmental remote-sensing in the TGR area were further discussed and concluded in the aspect of land-use/land-cover, vegetation dynamics, soil and water security, ecosystem services, ecosystem health and its management. The further researches on the remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes were proposed to improve the ecosystem management of the TGR area.

  4. Population Ecology (Organizational Ecology): An Experiential Exercise Demonstrating How Organizations in an Industry Are Born, Change, and Die

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacMillan, Karen; Komar, Jennifer

    2018-01-01

    This article describes a classroom exercise that is designed to help students understand the basic tenets of population ecology (also known as organizational ecology). The macro-level, longitudinal approach to understanding organizations can be difficult for students to conceptualize as it involves systems thinking. This exercise makes the theory…

  5. Studying the complexity of change: toward an analytical framework for understanding deliberate social-ecological transformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele-Lee Moore

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Faced with numerous seemingly intractable social and environmental challenges, many scholars and practitioners are increasingly interested in understanding how to actively engage and transform the existing systems holding such problems in place. Although a variety of analytical models have emerged in recent years, most emphasize either the social or ecological elements of such transformations rather than their coupled nature. To address this, first we have presented a definition of the core elements of a social-ecological system (SES that could potentially be altered in a transformation. Second, we drew on insights about transformation from three branches of literature focused on radical change, i.e., social movements, socio-technical transitions, and social innovation, and gave consideration to the similarities and differences with the current studies by resilience scholars. Drawing on these findings, we have proposed a framework that outlines the process and phases of transformative change in an SES. Future research will be able to utilize the framework as a tool for analyzing the alteration of social-ecological feedbacks, identifying critical barriers and leverage points and assessing the outcome of social-ecological transformations.

  6. Community variability and ecological functioning: 40 years of change in the North Sea benthos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, D S; Robinson, L A; Frid, C L J

    2015-06-01

    Using established associations between species traits (life history, morphological and behavioural characteristics) and key ecological functions, we applied biological traits analysis (BTA) to investigate the consequences of 40 years of change in two North Sea benthic communities. Ecological functioning (trait composition) was found to be statistically indistinguishable across periods that differed significantly in taxonomic composition. A temporary alteration to functioning was, however, inferred at both sampling stations; coinciding with the North Sea regime shift of the 1980s. Trait composition recovered after 1 year at the station located inside the grounds of a trawl fishery, whereas the station located outside the main area of fishing activity underwent a six-year period of significantly altered, and temporally unstable, trait composition. A further alteration to functioning was inferred at the fished station, when the population of a newly established species rapidly increased in numbers. The results suggest that density compensation by characteristically similar (redundant) taxa acts to buffer changes to ecological functioning over time, but that functional stability is subject to aperiodic disruption due to substitutions of dissimilar taxa or uncompensated population fluctuations. The rate at which ecological functioning stabilises and recovers appears to be dependent on environmental context; e.g. disturbance regime. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. At The Threshold Of The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Sustainable Initiatives In Brazilian Industries In The Context Of Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Zaleski Neto

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The complexityand multiplicity of the possible interactions involved in the phenomenon of anthropogenicclimate change make it difficult, even for eminent scientists, to be absolutelycertain regarding the occurrence of global climate change and its consequences.Nevertheless, there is a consensus that the crisis is already here.  While top-down solutions to this problem arebeing discussed, this paper addresses the bottom-up approach to reducing GHGemissions.   On investigating thebehavior of three leading companies in the drinks, food and paint sector, whichare proactive specifically in relation to the problem of global climate changeand regarding sustainability in general, this study identifies the bestpractices and documents and disseminates them with a view to their implementationin other organizations.   With the use ofa tool containing 51 variables, which are each associated with five scenarios,it was possible to identify the degree to which the companies meet thechallenges imposed by the search for sustainability.  In this context, the overall objective ofthis study was to investigate and identify the behavior of three large companieswhich are leaders in their sector with regard to sustainability and,specifically, their actions aimed at reducing the effects of anthropogenicclimate change.

  8. Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

    2018-01-01

    Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

  9. Classical Ecological Restoration and its Current Challenges: Assisted Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar A. Gómez-Ruiz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration is a very active area in ecology and of great importance for ecosystems management. Despite of being a relatively young discipline, the classical concepts of restoration seem, at present, impractical considering the great challenges generated by modification and destruction of ecosystems. This is due to anthropic activities (deforestation, change of land use, pollution and global climate change. In the classic definition of restoration, the objective is to recover the degraded ecosystem to the same conditions of a historical reference state. However, nowadays the ecosystems return to a state prior to the disturbances seems unviable, because the thresholds of resilience have already been overcome. Additionally, climate change is causing environmental changes at an unprecedented rate. For this reason, ecological restoration needs to unite efforts of diverse actors to recover ecosystems that can be sustainable and functional in the future, where the species could be able to tolerate the environmental conditions that will exist in the long term. Assisted migration has been proposed as a conservation strategy; it is defined as the translocation of species to new locations outside their known range of distribution. In the current context of loss of diversity and ecosystems, this strategy could be fundamental for the formation of new communities that can later become novel ecosystems where species that are fundamental to the dynamics of ecosystems can persist and, at the same time, recover function, structure and resilience.

  10. Changes in water and sediment exchange between the Changjiang River and Poyang Lake under natural and anthropogenic conditions, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jian Hua; Jia, Jianjun; Kettner, Albert J; Xing, Fei; Wang, Ya Ping; Xu, Xia Nan; Yang, Yang; Zou, Xin Qing; Gao, Shu; Qi, Shuhua; Liao, Fuqiang

    2014-05-15

    To study the fluvial interaction between Changjiang River and Poyang Lake, we analyze the observed changes of riverine flux of the mid-upstream of Changjiang River catchment, the five river systems of Poyang Lake and Poyang Lake basin. Inter-annual and seasonal variations of the water discharge and sediment exchange processes between Changjiang River and Poyang Lake are systematically explored to determine the influence of climate change as well as human impact (especially the Three Gorges Dam (TGD)). Results indicate that climate variation for the Changjiang catchment and Poyang Lake watershed is the main factor determining the changes of water exchanges between Changjiang River and Poyang Lake. However, human activities (including the emplacement of the TGD) accelerated this rate of change. Relative to previous years (1956-1989), the water discharge outflow from Poyang Lake during the dry season towards the Changjiang catchment increased by 8.98 km(3)y(-1) during 2003-2010. Evidently, the water discharge flowing into Poyang Lake during late April-late May decreased. As a consequence, water storage of Poyang Lake significantly reduced during late April-late May, resulting in frequent spring droughts after 2003. The freshwater flux of Changjiang River towards Poyang Lake is less during the flood season as well, significantly lowering the magnitude and frequency of the backflow of the Changjiang River during 2003-2010. Human activities, especially the emplacement and operation of the TGD and sand mining at Poyang Lake impose a major impact on the variation of sediment exchange between Changjiang main river and Poyang Lake. On average, sediments from Changjiang River deposited in Poyang Lake before 2000. After 2000, Changjiang River no longer supplied sediment to Poyang Lake. As a consequence, the sediment load of Changjiang River entering the sea increasingly exists of sediments from Lake Poyang during 2003-2010. As a result, Poyang Lake converted from a

  11. Geologic framework influences on the geomorphology of an anthropogenically modified barrier island: Assessment of dune/beach changes at Fire Island, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, E.E.; Hapke, C.J.

    2011-01-01

    Antecedent geology plays a crucial role in determining the inner-shelf, nearshore, and onshore geomorphology observed in coastal systems. However, the influence of the geologic framework on a system is difficult to extract when evaluating responses to changes due to storms and anthropogenic modifications, and few studies have quantified the potential for these influences in dune/beach environments. This study evaluates topographic change to the dune/beach system at Fire Island, New York over a ten year period (1998-2008) at two sites representing eastern and western reaches of the island where morphology has been shown to vary. The sites are situated along swaths of coast eroding differentially and where the inner shelf geologic framework differs substantially. Fewer large storms occurred in the first half of the study period, compared with the later part of the study period which includes several severe and prolonged extratropical storms. Additionally, a major beach replenishment project was conducted at one of the study sites. Topographic data from LiDAR and RTK GPS surveys are used to construct high-resolution 3D surfaces, which are used to determine volumetric change and to extract 2D alongshore features and profiles for analysis. The study sites help to further characterize morphologic differences between eastern and western reaches of the island. The western site displays higher sand volumes, lower dunes, and a lower gradient profile slope when compared with the eastern site. In addition to these fundamental morphologic differences, the two sites also differ significantly in their response to coastal storms and in the fact that their replenishment histories are different. The replenished areas show reduced vulnerability to storms through minimal volume loss and shoreline accretion that should be considered when evaluating the response of replenished areas to episodic events. We propose that site-specific differences evident throughout the study period can be

  12. Sedimentary records, reconstructing past trends in environmental changes and anthropogenic influences in the tropical lagoons of Tahiti and New Caledonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, J.M.; Fichez, R.; Chifflet, S.; Bellet, S.; Badie, C.; Trescinski, M.; Harris, P.; Bernard, C.

    1998-01-01

    Full text: This work was designed to assess the ability of sediments to record past environmental changes in two lagoon systems of the South Pacific. Sediment cores were retrieved by SCUBA diving from Papeete Harbour (French Polynesia) and from the Bay of Dumbea (Noumea, New-Caledonia). The sediment was dated by measuring the decrease in the activity of excess 210 Pb. For each site a comparison is made between the evolution of geochemical tracer and the major events, including those related to human activity. As the research programme called for a large number of 210 Pb measurements, a microwave oven was used to enhance the efficiency of the radiochemical treatment of the samples (Polonium extraction). This decreased significantly the time required for sample preparation. In Papeete harbour, the building of a sea-wall on the barrier reef considerably reduced inputs of ocean water in this part of the lagoon. The corresponding modification in water circulation apparently produced major changes in the chemical behaviour of heavy metal. In Noumea, sediment records for the past 50 years tend to demonstrate that recent improved management of mining sites resulted in a significant decrease in the discharge of suspended solids by the Dumbea river

  13. Landscape ecological impact of climatic change some preliminary findings of the LICC Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, M.M.

    1991-01-01

    The main objectives of the LICC project are to address the potential effects of a future climatic change on (semi-) natural terrestrial ecosystems and landscapes in Europe; six case studies are covered: alpine regions, boreal and subartic regions, Mediterranean region, fluvial systems, wetlands and coastal dunes. Preliminary findings showed a serious lack in fundamental ecological knowledge. Assessment of potential effects involved changes in water and sediment fluxes, changes in the vegetation cover, species response, dispersal and migration in a fragmented landscape and modification of climate impacts by man

  14. The human dimensions of climate change: A micro-level assessment of views from the ecological modernization, political economy and human ecology perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adua, Lazarus; York, Richard; Schuelke-Leech, Beth-Anne

    2016-03-01

    Understanding the manifold human and physical dimensions of climate change has become an area of great interest to researchers in recent decades. Using a U.S. nationally-representative data set and drawing on the ecological modernization, political economy, and human ecology perspectives, this study examines the impacts of energy efficiency technologies, affluence, household demographics, and biophysical characteristics on residential CO2 emissions. Overall, the study provides mixed support for the ecological modernization perspective. While several findings are consistent with the theory's expectation that modern societies can harness technology to mitigate human impacts on the environment, others directly contradict it. Also, the theory's prediction of an inverted U-shaped relationship between affluence and environmental impacts is contradicted. The evidence is somewhat more supportive of the political economy and human ecology perspectives, with affluence, some indicators of technology, household demographics, and biophysical characteristics emerging as important drivers of residential CO2 emissions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Some directions in ecological theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, Bruce E

    2015-12-01

    The role of theory within ecology has changed dramatically in recent decades. Once primarily a source of qualitative conceptual framing, ecological theories and models are now often used to develop quantitative explanations of empirical patterns and to project future dynamics of specific ecological systems. In this essay, I recount my own experience of this transformation, in which accelerating computing power and the widespread incorporation of stochastic processes into ecological theory combined to create some novel integration of mathematical and statistical models. This stronger integration drives theory towards incorporating more biological realism, and I explore ways in which we can grapple with that realism to generate new general theoretical insights. This enhanced realism, in turn, may lead to frameworks for projecting ecological responses to anthropogenic change, which is, arguably, the central challenge for 21st-century ecology. In an era of big data and synthesis, ecologists are increasingly seeking to infer causality from observational data; but conventional biometry provides few tools for this project. This is a realm where theorists can and should play an important role, and I close by pointing towards some analytical and philosophical approaches developed in our sister discipline of economics that address this very problem. While I make no grand prognostications about the likely discoveries of ecological theory over the coming century, you will find in this essay a scattering of more or less far-fetched ideas that I, at least, think are interesting and (possibly) fruitful directions for our field.

  16. Impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on stream flow and sediment discharge in the Wei River basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gao

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Reduced stream flow and increased sediment discharge are a major concern in the Yellow River basin of China, which supplies water for agriculture, industry and the growing populations located along the river. Similar concerns exist in the Wei River basin, which is the largest tributary of the Yellow River basin and comprises the highly eroded Loess Plateau. Better understanding of the drivers of stream flow and sediment discharge dynamics in the Wei River basin is needed for development of effective management strategies for the region and entire Yellow River basin. In this regard we analysed long-term trends for water and sediment discharge during the flood season in the Wei River basin, China. Stream flow and sediment discharge data for 1932 to 2008 from existing hydrological stations located in two subcatchments and at two points in the Wei River were analysed. Precipitation and air temperature data were analysed from corresponding meteorological stations. We identified change-points or transition years for the trends by the Pettitt method and, using double mass curves, we diagnosed whether they were caused by precipitation changes, human intervention, or both. We found significant decreasing trends for stream flow and sediment discharge during the flood season in both subcatchments and in the Wei River itself. Change-point analyses further revealed that transition years existed and that rapid decline in stream flow began in 1968 (P P P P P < 0.05, respectively. The impact of precipitation or human activity on the reduction amount after the transition years was estimated by double mass curves of precipitation vs. stream flow (sediment. For reductions in stream flow and sediment discharge, the contribution rate of human activity was found to be 82.80 and 95.56%, respectively, and was significantly stronger than the contribution rate of precipitation. This evidence clearly suggests that, in the absence of significant decreases in precipitation

  17. Climate change on Twitter: Content, media ecology and information sharing behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltri, Giuseppe A; Atanasova, Dimitrinka

    2017-08-01

    This article presents a study of the content, use of sources and information sharing about climate change analysing over 60,000 tweets collected using a random week sample. We discuss the potential for studying Twitter as a communicative space that is rich in different types of information and presents both new challenges and opportunities. Our analysis combines automatic thematic analysis, semantic network analysis and text classification according to psychological process categories. We also consider the media ecology of tweets and the external web links that users shared. In terms of content, the network of topics uncovered presents a multidimensional discourse that accounts for complex causal links between climate change and its consequences. The media ecology analysis revealed a narrow set of sources with a major role played by traditional media and that emotionally arousing text was more likely to be shared.

  18. Anthropogenic influences on the flood of 1997 in the river Rivillas (Badajoz). Land uses changes and geomorphic impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega Becerril, J. A.; Garzon Heydt, M. G.

    2009-01-01

    The Rivillas Stream, a tributary of the Guadiana River, is a small, seasonal watercourse that sporadically floods. The flooding that occurred on the 5th November 1977 was catastrophic; 22 deaths were recorded in the rivers basin plus another 15 in neighbouring basins. The intense transformation of the basin through agriculture and construction near the city of Badajoz have led to this river system becoming very unstable. This is equally true of its flood plain, its main course, its effluents, the slopes around the basin, and the remainder of the basin. The geomorphic impact of these changes only become noticeable when the flash-flood occurred ut to intense rainfall, highlighting the important negative effects of human activity in such sensitive environments. (Author) 7 refs.

  19. Pollination ecology and the possible impacts of environmental change in the Southwest Australian Biodiversity Hotspot

    OpenAIRE

    Phillips, Ryan D.; Hopper, Stephen D.; Dixon, Kingsley W.

    2010-01-01

    The Southwest Australian Biodiversity Hotspot contains an exceptionally diverse flora on an ancient, low-relief but edaphically diverse landscape. Since European colonization, the primary threat to the flora has been habitat clearance, though climate change is an impending threat. Here, we review (i) the ecology of nectarivores and biotic pollination systems in the region, (ii) the evidence that trends in pollination strategies are a consequence of characteristics of the landscape, and (iii) ...

  20. Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Wang, Peng; Huang, Hongsheng

    2013-01-01

    Land use/land cover change has been attracting increasing attention in the field of global environmental change research because of its role in the social and ecological environment. To explore the ecological risk characteristics of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China, an eco-risk index was established in this study by the combination of a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragmentation index. Spatial distribution and gradient difference of land use eco-risk are analyzed by using the methods of spatial autocorrelation and semivariance. Results show that ecological risk in the study area has a positive correlation, and there is a decreasing trend with the increase of grain size both in 1995 and 2005. Because the area of high eco-risk value increased from 1995 to 2005, eco-environment quality declined slightly in the study area. There are distinct spatial changes in the concentrated areas with high land use eco-risk values from 1995 to 2005. The step length of spatial separation of land use eco-risk is comparatively long—58 km in 1995 and 11 km in 2005—respectively. There are still nonstructural factors affecting the quality of the regional ecological environment at some small-scales. Our research results can provide some useful information for land eco-management, eco-environmental harnessing and restoration. In the future, some measures should be put forward in the regions with high eco-risk value, which include strengthening land use management, avoiding unreasonable types of land use and reducing the degree of fragmentation and separation. PMID:23343986

  1. Towards low energy consumption in Finland - An ecological change in economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sairinen, R.; Jaervilehto, P.

    1994-01-01

    Per capita energy consumption in Finland is twice the OECD average. Could Finland become a society with low energy consumption? What would that mean and why we need lower energy consumption and higher efficiency? These are questions dealt with in this article. The authors suggest that ecological goals could and should be considered in connection with the necessary changes in the economic structures resulting from the present economic depression. (orig.)

  2. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, LN; Newbold, T; Contu, S; Hill, SLL; Lysenko, I; De Palma, A; Phillips, HRP; Alhusseini, TI; Bedford, FE; Bennett, DJ; Booth, H; Burton, VJ; Chng, CWT; Choimes, A; Correia, DLP

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make free...

  3. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, L. N.; Newbold, T.; Contu, S.; Hill, S. L.; Lysenko, I.; De Palma, A.; Phillips, H. R.; Alhusseini, T. I.; Bedford, F. E.; Bennett, D. J.; Booth, H.; Burton, V. J.; Chng, C. W.; Choimes, A.; Correia, D. L.

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make free...

  4. ?My Worries Are Rational, Climate Change Is Not?: Habitual Ecological Worrying Is an Adaptive Response

    OpenAIRE

    Verplanken, Bas; Roy, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    Qualifications such as "global warming hysteria" and "energy policy schizophrenia" put forward by some climate change skeptics, usually outside the academic arena, may suggest that people who seriously worry about the environment suffer from psychological imbalance. The present study aimed to refute this thesis. While habitual worrying in general is strongly associated with psychopathological symptoms, in a survey a near-zero correlation was found between habitual ecological worrying and path...

  5. Preface to: Indian Ocean biogeochemical processes and ecological variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Hood, R.R.; Naqvi, S.W.A.; Wiggert, J.D.

    monsoonal in fluence. The biogeochemical and ecological impacts of this complex physical forcing are not yet fully understood. The Indian Ocean is truly one of the last great frontiers of ocea- nographic research. In addition, it appears... to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, yet it has been more than a decade since the last coordinated international study of biogeochemical and ecological proc esses was undertaken in this region. To obtain a better un...

  6. Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities in the Dynamics of Land Cover in Mediterranean Steppe West Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si Tayeb, Tayeb

    2016-08-01

    The last thirty years, there is a real dynamic change of land cover with intensive degradation of the natural vegetation especially in arid zone. Indeed, the adverse effects of drought periods from the year 1970 combined with population growth and economic conditions experienced by the country in the 1980s have greatly upset the delicate balance of the natural environment. These adverse effects may result in partial or total disappearance of some natural ecosystems.The objective of this work is to study the distribution of plant formations that constitute the ecosystem typical of west Algeria and their dynamics in time and space, as well as to develop a method to monitor the degradation process and a system capable of effectively protecting areas classified for their plant and animal species.The Landsat satellite images were used to map the vegetation of the study area at a scale of 1:200,000. A comparison was then made between the map obtained from satellite images (Landsat 8) of 2014 and (Landsat 5) of 1987.The results show the following main trends in the distribution patterns of steppe species, a strong decrease of land occupied by steppe of Stipatenacissima and steppe of Artimesiaherba-alba, witch replaced by three taxa Thymelaeamicrophylla, Salsolavermiculata and Peganumharmala. Steppe of Artemisia herbaalba has been transformed by steppe of. taxa Thymelaeamicrophylla, Salsolavermiculata and Lygeumspartum. Woody species such as Quercus ilex and Juniperusphoenicea are characterized by a large regression.

  7. Hotspot identification of trans-boundary water conflict due to anthropogenic water use and climate change in the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueki, A.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

    2014-12-01

    A significant fraction of world population is projected to experience increased water stress in response to the combined effects of population growth and climate change. Some previous studies have suggested that high water stress had significant causality for civil war, and militarized conflict and trans-boundary water conflict in international river basin. On the other hand, some previous empirical analyses have found that institutionalization (e.g., specific provisions in trans-boundary freshwater treaties) in international river basin was associated with a lower risk of water conflicts during water scarcity. The purpose of this study is to identify these water conflict "hotspots", integrating institutional and governance mechanisms of adaptations to impact of water stress. These adaptations is classified to 4 abilities and skills and then used to calculate the adaptive capacity. The adaptive capacity includes the way to manage water conflict effectively, plan to deal with uncertainty in the future, alter current situation and create institutionalization with common perspective throughout the whole activities. This study identifies water conflict "hotspots" by combining high water stress areas projected by a global water resource model and a lower degree of the adaptive capacity. This study finds that 9 water conflict "hotspots" in Africa, Asia and South America.

  8. Evaluating mood changes in response to anthropogenic noise with a response-slowing task in three species of zoo-housed primates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine A. Cronin

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In the zoo environment, anthropogenic noise is common as sound levels fluctuate due to visitors, construction, habitat design, and special events. In this study, changes in the mood of three species of zoo-housed primates in response to a loud annual event were evaluated with the response-slowing paradigm. In this paradigm, animals experiencing anxiety slow responses on simple cognitive tasks when emotional content is displayed. Following a previously validated approach, we measured latencies to touch potentially threatening (conspecific faces with directed gaze and non-threatening (conspecific faces with averted gaze images overlaid on a grey square, relative to neutral control images (grey squares only on a touchscreen. In Experiment 1, four Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata were tested in two conditions: during a baseline (non-stressful period and opportunistically during three days during which loud jets frequently flew overhead. Results indicated a significant effect of condition, with an increase in latency to touch images of conspecific faces relative to control images during the days of the loud event. In Experiment 2, chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes, n = 4 and western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla, n = 2 were tested during the same loud event following a similar methodology. The results revealed subtle changes across conditions; however, this was likely driven by the apes increasing their response speed to face stimuli relative to control stimuli over time (habituation. These findings suggest that the macaques, but not the apes, underwent detectable affective changes during the loud event. With additional development, this relatively simple paradigm may be an effective and feasible way to evaluate real-time changes in the mood of zoo-housed animals.

  9. Evolution in plant populations as a driver of ecological changes in arthropod communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Marc T J; Vellend, Mark; Stinchcombe, John R

    2009-06-12

    Heritable variation in traits can have wide-ranging impacts on species interactions, but the effects that ongoing evolution has on the temporal ecological dynamics of communities are not well understood. Here, we identify three conditions that, if experimentally satisfied, support the hypothesis that evolution by natural selection can drive ecological changes in communities. These conditions are: (i) a focal population exhibits genetic variation in a trait(s), (ii) there is measurable directional selection on the trait(s), and (iii) the trait(s) under selection affects variation in a community variable(s). When these conditions are met, we expect evolution by natural selection to cause ecological changes in the community. We tested these conditions in a field experiment examining the interactions between a native plant (Oenothera biennis) and its associated arthropod community (more than 90 spp.). Oenothera biennis exhibited genetic variation in several plant traits and there was directional selection on plant biomass, life-history strategy (annual versus biennial reproduction) and herbivore resistance. Genetically based variation in biomass and life-history strategy consistently affected the abundance of common arthropod species, total arthropod abundance and arthropod species richness. Using two modelling approaches, we show that evolution by natural selection in large O. biennis populations is predicted to cause changes in the abundance of individual arthropod species, increases in the total abundance of arthropods and a decline in the number of arthropod species. In small O. biennis populations, genetic drift is predicted to swamp out the effects of selection, making the evolution of plant populations unpredictable. In short, evolution by natural selection can play an important role in affecting the dynamics of communities, but these effects depend on several ecological factors. The framework presented here is general and can be applied to other systems to

  10. Evolution in plant populations as a driver of ecological changes in arthropod communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Marc T.J.; Vellend, Mark; Stinchcombe, John R.

    2009-01-01

    Heritable variation in traits can have wide-ranging impacts on species interactions, but the effects that ongoing evolution has on the temporal ecological dynamics of communities are not well understood. Here, we identify three conditions that, if experimentally satisfied, support the hypothesis that evolution by natural selection can drive ecological changes in communities. These conditions are: (i) a focal population exhibits genetic variation in a trait(s), (ii) there is measurable directional selection on the trait(s), and (iii) the trait(s) under selection affects variation in a community variable(s). When these conditions are met, we expect evolution by natural selection to cause ecological changes in the community. We tested these conditions in a field experiment examining the interactions between a native plant (Oenothera biennis) and its associated arthropod community (more than 90 spp.). Oenothera biennis exhibited genetic variation in several plant traits and there was directional selection on plant biomass, life-history strategy (annual versus biennial reproduction) and herbivore resistance. Genetically based variation in biomass and life-history strategy consistently affected the abundance of common arthropod species, total arthropod abundance and arthropod species richness. Using two modelling approaches, we show that evolution by natural selection in large O. biennis populations is predicted to cause changes in the abundance of individual arthropod species, increases in the total abundance of arthropods and a decline in the number of arthropod species. In small O. biennis populations, genetic drift is predicted to swamp out the effects of selection, making the evolution of plant populations unpredictable. In short, evolution by natural selection can play an important role in affecting the dynamics of communities, but these effects depend on several ecological factors. The framework presented here is general and can be applied to other systems to

  11. Ecological Land Fragmentation Evaluation and Dynamic Change of a Typical Black Soil Farming Area in Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhan Liu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Ecological land is a land use category provided with considerable ecological value and a vital indicator reflecting regional eco-environmental quality. However, it has experienced severe fragmentation during the rapid urbanization in China which strongly threatened the regional ecological security, land use pattern and human living environment. Therefore, analysis of spatiotemporal change of ecological land use and ecological landscape pattern is particularly essential. In this paper, a case study was made in Nong’an County, which is a typical black soil farming area located in northeast China facing severe conflicts among cultivated land protection, urban expansion and ecological security. A landscape fragmentation evaluation model was proposed to measure the degree of regional ecological land fragmentation. We also determined the land use change features through the methods of dynamic change information exploration and by performing transfer trajectory analysis during the period from 1996 to 2014. The results showed that the ecological land in Nong’an County has experienced increasing fragmentation during the past 18 years. The statistical results showed that the land transition between ecological land and other land categories was quite frequent, and it especially appeared as a dramatic decline of grassland and severe increase of saline-alkali land. In addition, human interferences especially construction activities and cultivated land occupation were still the dominant factors to the fragmentation of ecological land and the frequent transition among the land use categories. The fragmentation degree showed a downward tendency at the end of the study, which indicated noticeable benefits of land use regulation and land protection policies directed towards land ecological value. This study aims to provide a scientific evaluation model for measuring ecological land fragmentation degree, and figure out the regional land use transition

  12. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, Jr, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (USA). Inst. for Environmental Studies, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square metre, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes. 73 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  13. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

  14. Land Use Change and Agricultural Land Fragmentation due to Anthropogenic Activities in an Hot Spot Area: A Case Study for Thrace Region of Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altürk, Bahadır; Konukcu, Fatih

    2017-04-01

    Agricultural lands that supply food, energy and ecosystem services for human life have been lost due to anthropogenic activities such as construction of roads, urban and industry areas. The significant reasons for the increase of artificial surfaces were poorly planned economic decisions by the government and internal migration due to this poorly planning. Unplanned urban sprawl also give rise to land fragmentation. Fragmentation of agricultural land affects both the agricultural production capacity and rural sustainable employment. In this study: i) Land use changes between 1990-2014 period were assessed using remotely sensed data and ii) Spatial and temporal agricultural land fragmentation were investigated using landscape pattern indice (effective mesh size), Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) and Entropy method for 25 years period. The selected"hot spot" study area is located on east Thrace region of Turkey, being the service and industrial development zone where agricultural activities, water resources and natural habitat have been damaged due to rapid urban and industrial development for about 25 years. The results showed that agricultural lands decreased 6.44%, urban areas increased 111.68% and industry areas increased 251.19% during this 25 years period. Additionally, fragmentation analyses demonstrated that core agricultural areas sharply decreased and relative fragmentation (effective mesh size) increased from 50.68% to 56.77% during 1990 and 2014.

  15. Changes in abundance and composition of anthropogenic marine debris on the continental slope off the Pacific coast of northern Japan, after the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goto, Tomoaki; Shibata, Haruka

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Benthic marine debris on continental slope off northeastern Japan quantified. • Low density of sea-base sourced debris dominant until 2011 Tohoku earthquake. • Increase in marine debris after the earthquake indicated by post-2011 tsunami survey. • Much increase in land-base sourced debris mainly due to 2011 tsunami. • Additional sources of land-based debris during post-tsunami survey implied. - Abstract: Abundance and composition of anthropogenic marine debris were assessed on the basis of six bottom trawl surveys conducted on the continental slope off Iwate Prefecture, Pacific coast of northern Japan, in 2003, 2004 and 2011, and the temporal changes due to the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in March 2011 evaluated. In 2003 and 2004, 54–94 items km −2 of marine debris, dominated by sea-base sourced items mainly comprising fishing gear and related items from adjacent fishing grounds on the continental shelf, were quantified. In the post-earthquake period, the density increased drastically to 233–332 items km −2 , due to an increase in land-base sourced items generated by the tsunami. However, a major increase in abundance after the disaster, compared to the total amount of tsunami debris swept into the sea, was not found. Additional sources of land-based debris from the adjacent continental shelf are suggested in the present waters

  16. "My worries are rational, climate change is not": habitual ecological worrying is an adaptive response.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bas Verplanken

    Full Text Available Qualifications such as "global warming hysteria" and "energy policy schizophrenia" put forward by some climate change skeptics, usually outside the academic arena, may suggest that people who seriously worry about the environment suffer from psychological imbalance. The present study aimed to refute this thesis. While habitual worrying in general is strongly associated with psychopathological symptoms, in a survey a near-zero correlation was found between habitual ecological worrying and pathological worry. Instead, habitual ecological worrying was associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors, and with a personality structure characterized by imagination and an appreciation for new ideas. The study had sufficient statistical power and measures were valid and reliable. The results confirm that those who habitually worry about the ecology are not only lacking in any psychopathology, but demonstrate a constructive and adaptive response to a serious problem. In the public domain, these findings may contribute to a more rational and less emotional debate on climate change and to the prevention of stigmatization of people who are genuinely concerned about our habitat and are prepared to do something about it ("habitual worriers are not crazy". In the academic arena this study may contribute to environmental psychology ("habitual worrying is part of a green identity", as well as to the literature on worry and anxiety ("habitual worrying can be a constructive response".

  17. "My worries are rational, climate change is not": habitual ecological worrying is an adaptive response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verplanken, Bas; Roy, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    Qualifications such as "global warming hysteria" and "energy policy schizophrenia" put forward by some climate change skeptics, usually outside the academic arena, may suggest that people who seriously worry about the environment suffer from psychological imbalance. The present study aimed to refute this thesis. While habitual worrying in general is strongly associated with psychopathological symptoms, in a survey a near-zero correlation was found between habitual ecological worrying and pathological worry. Instead, habitual ecological worrying was associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors, and with a personality structure characterized by imagination and an appreciation for new ideas. The study had sufficient statistical power and measures were valid and reliable. The results confirm that those who habitually worry about the ecology are not only lacking in any psychopathology, but demonstrate a constructive and adaptive response to a serious problem. In the public domain, these findings may contribute to a more rational and less emotional debate on climate change and to the prevention of stigmatization of people who are genuinely concerned about our habitat and are prepared to do something about it ("habitual worriers are not crazy"). In the academic arena this study may contribute to environmental psychology ("habitual worrying is part of a green identity"), as well as to the literature on worry and anxiety ("habitual worrying can be a constructive response").

  18. Climate change and an invasive, tropical milkweed: an ecological trap for monarch butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faldyn, Matthew J; Hunter, Mark D; Elderd, Bret D

    2018-05-01

    While it is well established that climate change affects species distributions and abundances, the impacts of climate change on species interactions has not been extensively studied. This is particularly important for specialists whose interactions are tightly linked, such as between the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) and the plant genus Asclepias, on which it depends. We used open-top chambers (OTCs) to increase temperatures in experimental plots and placed either nonnative Asclepias curassavica or native A. incarnata in each plot along with monarch larvae. We found, under current climatic conditions, adult monarchs had higher survival and mass when feeding on A. curassavica. However, under future conditions, monarchs fared much worse on A. curassavica. The decrease in adult survival and mass was associated with increasing cardenolide concentrations under warmer temperatures. Increased temperatures alone reduced monarch forewing length. Cardenolide concentrations in A. curassavica may have transitioned from beneficial to detrimental as temperature increased. Thus, the increasing cardenolide concentrations may have pushed the larvae over a tipping point into an ecological trap; whereby past environmental cues associated with increased fitness give misleading information. Given the ubiquity of specialist plant-herbivore interactions, the potential for such ecological traps to emerge as temperatures increase may have far-reaching consequences. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. [Remote sensing analysis of ecological change caused by construction of the new island city: Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone, Fujian Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Xiao-le; Lin, Zheng-feng; Tang, Fei

    2015-02-01

    Pingtan Island was officially established as the 'Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone of Fujian' in 2010, and it led to a surge of construction in the island city. Based on the Landsat-5 images for 2007 and the latest Landsat-8 images for 2013, this paper studied the ecological status, the temporal trends of the ecological changes and the reasons for those changes in Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone at its early stage of construction, by using the remote sensing of ecological index (RSEI). The results showed that as an ecologically fragile area, Pingtan Island had a moderate level of overall ecological status. In the early construction period (from 2007 to 2013), the ecological status of the island showed a downward trend, with a 14% drop of RSEI from 0.511 in 2007 down to 0.450 in 2013, and approximately 36.5% of the area of the island faced the degradation of ecological status, which mainly occurred in the central and southwestern parts of the island. The reason for the degradation was mainly due to the large-scale construction which further damaged the scarce vegetation on the island. Therefore, in order to curb the downward trend of the ecological quality of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone, some effective ecological protection measures must be developed and implemented during the construction.

  20. Adaptation of reproductive phenology to climate change with ecological feedback via dominance hierarchies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Jacob; Smith, Henrik G; Jonzén, Niclas

    2014-03-01

    and demographic trends in a changing climate. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  1. The special effects of hypnosis and hypnotherapy: A contribution to an ecological model of therapeutic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mende, Matthias

    2006-04-01

    There is ample evidence that hypnosis enhances the effectiveness of psychotherapy and produces some astounding effects of its own. In this paper, the effective components and principles of hypnosis and hypnotherapy are analyzed. The "special" hypnotic and hypnotherapeutic effects are linked to the fact that the ecological requirements of therapeutic change are taken into account implicitly and/or explicitly when working with hypnotic trances in a therapeutic setting. The hypnotic situation is described--theoretically and in case examples--as a therapeutic modality that gratifies and aligns the basic emotional needs to feel autonomous, related, competent, and oriented. It is shown how the hypnotic relationship can help promote a sound ecological balance between these needs--a balance that is deemed to be a necessary prerequisite for salutogenesis. Practical implications for planning hypnotherapeutic interventions are discussed.

  2. Ecological changes in Coyotes (Canis latrans in response to the ice age megafaunal extinctions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie A Meachen

    Full Text Available Coyotes (Canis latrans are an important species in human-inhabited areas. They control pests and are the apex predators in many ecosystems. Because of their importance it is imperative to understand how environmental change will affect this species. The end of the Pleistocene Ice Age brought with it many ecological changes for coyotes and here we statistically determine the changes that occurred in coyotes, when these changes occurred, and what the ecological consequences were of these changes. We examined the mandibles of three coyote populations: Pleistocene Rancho La Brean (13-29 Ka, earliest Holocene Rancho La Brean (8-10 Ka, and Recent from North America, using 2D geometric morphometrics to determine the morphological differences among them. Our results show that these three populations were morphologically distinct. The Pleistocene coyotes had an overall robust mandible with an increased shearing arcade and a decreased grinding arcade, adapted for carnivory and killing larger prey; whereas the modern populations show a gracile morphology with a tendency toward omnivory or grinding. The earliest Holocene populations are intermediate in morphology and smallest in size. These findings indicate that a niche shift occurred in coyotes at the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary - from a hunter of large prey to a small prey/more omnivorous animal. Species interactions between Canis were the most likely cause of this transition. This study shows that the Pleistocene extinction event affected species that did not go extinct as well as those that did.

  3. The impacts of climate and land-use change scenarios on river ecology: the case of Margaritifera margaritifera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Regina; Fernandes, Luís; Varandas, Simone; Pereira, Mário; Sousa, Ronaldo; Teixeira, Amilcar; Lopes-Lima, Manuel; Cortes, Rui; Pacheco, Fernando

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is one of the most important causes of biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems and it is expected to cause extinctions in many species in the future. Freshwater ecosystems are also highly affected by anthropogenic pressures such as land use/land cover changes, water abstractions and impoundments. The aim of this study is to assess the impacts of future climate and land-use in the Beça River (northern Portugal) namely on the conservation status of the endangered pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera (Linnaeus, 1758). This is an environmental indicator and endangered species currently present in several stretches of the Beça River that still hold adequate ecological conditions. However, the species is threatened by the precipitation decrease projected for the 21st century and the deviation of a significant portion of the river water to an adjacent watershed (since 1998). This decrease in river water can be especially acute during the summer months, forming small pools dispersed along the water course where M. margaritifera, and its host (Salmo trutta), barely find biological conditions for survival. The materials and methods used in this study include; (i) the assessment of water quality based on minimum, maximum and average values of relevant physicochemical parameters within the period 2000-2009; (ii) assessment of future climate change settings based on air temperature and precipitation projected by Regional and Global Circulation Models for recent past (1961 - 1990) and future climate scenarios (2071 - 2099); (iii) data processing to remove the model biases; and, (iv) integrated watershed modelling with river-planning (Mike Basin) and broad GIS (ArcMap) computer packages. Our findings comprise: (i); a good relationship between current wildfire incidence and river water quality; (ii) an increase in the future air temperature throughout the year; (iii) increases in future precipitations during winter and decreases during the other seasons

  4. Tendencies of ecological changes in the region of Ignalina NPP and in Lake Drukshiai

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pashkauskas, R.; Mazeika, J.; Baubinas, R.

    1999-01-01

    Since 1979, when the construction of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant started, a group of specialists from Lithuania research and academic institutions began to investigate both Lake Drukshiai - the cooler of the Ignalina NPP and the neighbouring area. The investigations were aimed not only at monitoring the environmental consequences of the Ignalina NPP impact but also at forecasting changes of the ecosystems. The State Scientific Program 'Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant and the Environment' was the result of final stage of complex investigations. This conference paper contains data on the changes of thermal state and water balance of Lake Drukshiai, the effect of permanent thermal and chemical pollution on the chemical composition and hydrochemical regime, the pollution of the lake water, the geochemical-contaminated state, the condition, dynamics and the changes of hydrobiont communities in Lake Drukshiai. Radioecological and eco toxicological state of Ignalina NPP region and Lake Drukshiai is estimated as well as changes in Lake Drukshiai and Ignalina NPP surrounding area ecosystems under the combine anthropogenic impact of the plant influence are elucidated. The findings on medical and biological studies in the Ignalina NPP influence population zone and the evidence of impact of Ignalina NPP on social-territorial processes in the region are presented as well

  5. A guideline to study the feasibility domain of multi-trophic and changing ecological communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Chuliang; Rohr, Rudolf P; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-04-24

    The feasibility domain of an ecological community can be described by the set of environmental abiotic and biotic conditions under which all co-occurring and interacting species in a given site and time can have positive abundances. Mathematically, the feasibility domain corresponds to the parameter space compatible with positive (feasible) solutions at equilibrium for all the state variables in a system under a given model of population dynamics. Under specific dynamics, the existence of a feasible equilibrium is a necessary condition for species persistence regardless of whether the feasible equilibrium is dynamically stable or not. Thus, the size of the feasibility domain can also be used as an indicator of the tolerance of a community to random environmental variations. This has motivated a rich research agenda to estimate the feasibility domain of ecological communities. However, these methodologies typically assume that species interactions are static, or that input and output energy flows on each trophic level are unconstrained. Yet, this is different to how communities behave in nature. Here, we present a step-by-step quantitative guideline providing illustrative examples, computational code, and mathematical proofs to study systematically the feasibility domain of ecological communities under changes of interspecific interactions and subject to different constraints on the trophic energy flows. This guideline covers multi-trophic communities that can be formed by any type of interspecific interactions. Importantly, we show that the relative size of the feasibility domain can significantly change as a function of the biological information taken into consideration. We believe that the availability of these methods can allow us to increase our understanding about the limits at which ecological communities may no longer tolerate further environmental perturbations, and can facilitate a stronger integration of theoretical and empirical research. Copyright

  6. Ecophysiology and anthropogenic environmental changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haertel, O

    1971-01-01

    The problems caused by man in relation to environmental pollution are reviewed. Attention is focused on increased air pollution, the major sources of which are industries, automobiles and home heating. Increased use of herbicides, insecticides, and fertilizers pollute the air as well as rivers and the soil. The processes involved in sulfur dioxide attacking plant cells and the sensitivity of lichens to sulfur dioxide are discussed. Along with sulfur dioxide, fluorine compounds, peroxyacetyl nitrate, hydrogen sulfides, nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide are appearing more and more as injurious agents in the air. In addition, every time fossil fuel is burned, carbon dioxide is returned to the atmosphere. Some 10 tons of carbon dioxide are thrown into the air annually through combustion, thereby leading to higher mean temperatures in the troposphere.

  7. Natural and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portman, D.A.; Gutowski, W.J. Jr.; Wang, W.C.; Iacono, M.J.; Yang, S.

    1992-01-01

    This final report provides a broad overview of program accomplishments. Brief descriptions are provided for accomplishments with respect to intercomparisions and improvements in general circulation models, analysis of climatic data and climate model statistics, and accomplishments in the China Meteorology coordination

  8. Transitions in Arctic ecosystems: Ecological implications of a changing hydrological regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrona, Frederick J.; Johansson, Margareta; Culp, Joseph M.; Jenkins, Alan; Mârd, Johanna; Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Prowse, Terry D.; Vincent, Warwick F.; Wookey, Philip A.

    2016-03-01

    Numerous international scientific assessments and related articles have, during the last decade, described the observed and potential impacts of climate change as well as other related environmental stressors on Arctic ecosystems. There is increasing recognition that observed and projected changes in freshwater sources, fluxes, and storage will have profound implications for the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and ecological processes and properties of Arctic terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. However, a significant level of uncertainty remains in relation to forecasting the impacts of an intensified hydrological regime and related cryospheric change on ecosystem structure and function. As the terrestrial and freshwater ecology component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review these uncertainties and recommend enhanced coordinated circumpolar research and monitoring efforts to improve quantification and prediction of how an altered hydrological regime influences local, regional, and circumpolar-level responses in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Specifically, we evaluate (i) changes in ecosystem productivity; (ii) alterations in ecosystem-level biogeochemical cycling and chemical transport; (iii) altered landscapes, successional trajectories, and creation of new habitats; (iv) altered seasonality and phenological mismatches; and (v) gains or losses of species and associated trophic interactions. We emphasize the need for developing a process-based understanding of interecosystem interactions, along with improved predictive models. We recommend enhanced use of the catchment scale as an integrated unit of study, thereby more explicitly considering the physical, chemical, and ecological processes and fluxes across a full freshwater continuum in a geographic region and spatial range of hydroecological units (e.g., stream-pond-lake-river-near shore marine environments).

  9. Contrasting pattern of hydrological changes during the past two millennia from central and northern India: Regional climate difference or anthropogenic impact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Praveen K.; Prasad, Sushma; Marwan, Norbert; Anoop, A.; Krishnan, R.; Gaye, Birgit; Basavaiah, N.; Stebich, Martina; Menzel, Philip; Riedel, Nils

    2018-02-01

    High resolution reconstructions of the India Summer Monsoon (ISM) are essential to identify regionally different patterns of climate change and refine predictive models. We find opposing trends of hydrological proxies between northern (Sahiya cave stalagmite) and central India (Lonar Lake) between 100 and 1300 CE with the strongest anti-correlation between 810 and 1300 CE. The apparently contradictory data raise the question if these are related to widely different regional precipitation patterns or reflect human influence in/around the Lonar Lake. By comparing multiproxy data with historical records, we demonstrate that only the organic proxies in the Lonar Lake show evidence of anthropogenic impact. However, evaporite data (mineralogy and δ18O) are indicative of precipitation/evaporation (P/E) into the Lonar Lake. Back-trajectories of air-mass circulation over northern and central India show that the relative contribution of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) branch of the ISM is crucial for determining the δ18O of carbonate proxies only in north India, whereas central India is affected significantly by the Arabian Sea (AS) branch of the ISM. We conclude that the δ18O of evaporative carbonates in the Lonar Lake reflects P/E and, in the interval under consideration, is not influenced by source water changes. The opposing trend between central and northern India can be explained by (i) persistent multidecadal droughts over central India between 810 and 1300 CE that provided an effective mechanism for strengthening sub-tropical westerly winds resulting in enhancement of wintertime (non-monsoonal) rainfall over northern parts of the Indian subcontinent, and/or (ii) increased moisture influx to northern India from the depleted BoB source waters.

  10. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  11. Placing lochs in their landscapes: linking landscape ecology, ecohydrology and conservation interest in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir, M. C.; Spray, C. J.; Rowan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    Scotland is a country with outstanding freshwater systems providing multiple social, economic and cultural functions as well as ecological services of international importance. Scotland's lakes (locally termed lochs) occupy approximately 3% of the country's land mass and contain more than 90% of Great Britain's total freshwater resource. With over 25,000 lochs (surface area greater than 0.1 hectares) standing freshwaters are an iconic part of Scotland's landscape and they come in a myriad of forms and sizes contributing outstanding geodiversity as well as habitats of international importance for numerous species of conservation interest. There is undoubtedly a need to protect the conservation interests of designated sites in the face of changing loch and catchment pressures - which include diffuse pollutants, morphological modification, recreation and invasive species. Climate change presents a new set of challenges with potential impacts across the entire standing water resource base and predicting how these systems might respond to these changes greatly amplifies uncertainties implicit in their environmental management. Global climate change is predicted to be a major cause of change across all ecosystems and there are particular concerns about impacts on freshwater systems due to the coupling of impacts to both hydrology and ecology. Climate change is likely to affect the hydrological cycle in a number of ways, most significantly through changing temperature and precipitation patterns, intensities and extremes. These changes, coupled with reduced snow and ice cover, frequency and duration, will lead to changes in soil moisture conditions and subsequently runoff. This is turn will impact on river flow, loch water levels, epilimnic temperatures, nutrient availability and, subsequently, the ecological structure and function of the entire standing water system. For some species these habitat changes will push them to the very limits of their natural tolerances and a

  12. THE CONSEQUENCES OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE ON ECOLOGICAL RESOURCES: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatially explicit identification of changes in ecological conditions over large areas is key to targeting and prioritizing areas for environmental protection and restoration by managers at watershed, basin, and regional scales. A critical limitation to this point has bee...

  13. Rapid Assessment of Anthropogenic Impacts of Exposed Sandy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We applied a rapid assessment methodology to estimate the degree of human impact of exposed sandy beaches in Ghana using ghost crabs as ecological indicators. The use of size ranges of ghost crab burrows and their population density as ecological indicators to assess extent of anthropogenic impacts on beaches ...

  14. Vulnerability of social-ecological system to climate change in Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakinuma, K.; Yanagawa, A.; Sasaki, T.; Kanae, S.

    2017-12-01

    Coping with future climate changes are one of the most important issues in the world. IPCC (2014) suggested that vulnerability and exposure of social-ecological systems to extreme climatic events (hazard) determine the impact of climate changes. Although the schematic framework is widely accepted, there are high uncertainty of vulnerability of social and ecological systems and it makes difficult to examine it in empirical researches. Our objective is to assess the climate change impact on the social-ecological system in Mongolia. We review researches about trends of climate (Hazard), vegetation, pastoral mobility (Vulnerability) and livestock distribution (Exposure) across Mongolia Climate trends are critical for last several decades and thus hazard may be increasing in Mongolia. Temperature is increasing with high confidence in all regions. Precipitation are slightly decreasing with medium confidence across the country, especially in northern and central regions. Exposure would also be increasing especially in northern, central and western regions, because livestock population are concentrating these regions after 1990. Generally, less productive ecosystems (e.g. few plant productivity and less species richness) are vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as drought. In that sense, southern region may be more vulnerable to climate changes than other regions. However, if we focus on pastoral mobility forms for drought, we get contractive conclusions. Pastoralists in southern region keep mobility to variable and scarce vegetation while pastoralists in northern region less mobile because of stable and much vegetation. Exclusive managements in northern region is able to maximized the number of livestock only under stable precipitation regimes. But at the same time, it is difficult to escape from hazardous areas when it is drought. Thus, in term of rangeland management, northern region would be more vulnerable to increase of drought intensity. Although northern and

  15. Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Dianna M.; Labiosa, William; Pearlstine, Leonard; Hallac, David; Strong, David; Hearn, Paul; Bernknopf, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

  16. Ecological genomics for coral and sea urchin conservation in times of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpizo-Ituarte, E.; Hofmann, G.; Fangue, N.; Cupul-Magaña, A.; Rodríguez-Troncoso, A. P.; Díaz-Pérez, L.; Olivares Bañuelos, T.; Escobar Fernández, R.

    2010-03-01

    If atmospheric CO2 levels continue to increase, it is predicted that the average ocean sea surface temperature will also increase and ocean pH will decrease to levels not experienced by marine organisms for millions of years. Understanding the impact of these stressors will require the study of several marine organisms, and this knowledge will be fundamental to our ability to predict possible effects along large geographical regions and across phyla. Ecological genomics, defined as the use of molecular techniques to answer ecological questions, offers a set of tools that can help us better understand the responses of marine organisms to changes in their environment. In the present work we are using genomic tools to characterize the response of corals and sea urchins to environmental stress. On one side, coral species represent a useful model due to its functions as "environmental sentinels" in tropical ecosystems; on the other hand, species of sea urchins, with the recent sequence of the genome of the purple sea urchin S. purpuratus, offers important genomic resources. Recent results in corals and in sea urchins have shown that the response to stressful conditions can be detected using molecular genomic markers. Continued study of the mRNA expression patterns of several important gene families including calcification genes as well as genes involved in the cellular stress response such as heat shock proteins, will be valuable index of ecological stress in marine systems. These data can be integrated into better strategies of conservation and management of the oceans.

  17. Ecological Security and Ecosystem Services in Response to Land Use Change in the Coastal Area of Jiangsu, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiyao Xu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization, and the resulting land use/cover change, is a primary cause of the degradation of coastal wetland ecosystems. Reclamation projects are seen as a way to strike a balance between socioeconomic development and maintenance of coastal ecosystems. Our aim was to understand the ecological changes to Jiangsu’s coastal wetland resulting from land use change since 1977 by using remote sensing and spatial analyses. The results indicate that: (1 The area of artificial land use expanded while natural land use was reduced, which emphasized an increase in production-orientated land uses at the expense of ecologically important wetlands; (2 It took 34 years for landscape ecological security and 39 years for ecosystem services to regain equilibrium. The coastal reclamation area would recover ecological equilibrium only after a minimum of 30 years; (3 The total ecosystem service value decreased significantly from $2.98 billion per year to $2.31 billion per year from 1977 to 2014. Food production was the only one ecosystem service function that consistently increased, mainly because of government policy; (4 The relationship between landscape ecological security and ecosystem services is complicated, mainly because of the scale effect of landscape ecology. Spatial analysis of changing gravity centers showed that landscape ecological security and ecosystem service quality became better in the north than the south over the study period.

  18. Systematics and evolution of the Meriones shawii/grandis complex (Rodentia, Gerbillinae) during the Late Quaternary in northwestern Africa: Exploring the role of environmental and anthropogenic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoetzel, Emmanuelle; Cornette, Raphaël; Lalis, Aude; Nicolas, Violaine; Cucchi, Thomas; Denys, Christiane

    2017-05-01

    Rodents of the Meriones shawii/grandis complex have been attested to in North Africa since the Middle Pleistocene and are abundant in archaeological sites. Today, they are widely spread and represent a major pest to local human populations. This complex, therefore, represents an accurate model for investigating the roles of climate change and human impact in shaping Quaternary faunal diversity and distribution. Many gray areas still exist regarding the systematics, ecology and geographical distribution of this complex, for both present and past populations. The purpose of this study is to compare modern genotyped and fossil Meriones specimens in order to 1) clarify the current systematics and distribution of the Meriones populations of the shawii/grandis complex, 2) document the taxonomic diversity in fossil Meriones from northwestern Africa, and 3) track their phenotypic and biogeographic evolution through time. To answer these questions we used geometric morphometrics on skulls (landmarks) and first upper molars (landmarks and sliding landmarks). We evidenced the existence of two morpho-groups within the M. shawii/grandis complex, with a clear geographic pattern (M. grandis in Morocco vs. M. shawii in Algeria and Tunisia). Currently only one morpho-group, attributed to M. grandis, seems to exist in Morocco, with a small overlap with M. shawii in the most eastern part of the country. However, according to fossil data, M. shawii was also present in Atlantic Morocco during the Late Pleistocene. We have also highlighted the impact of Holocene climate change and habitat anthropization on this arid adapted group. During the Middle Holocene, a major climatic event (last interglacial optimum) seems to have induced a demographic collapse in Moroccan populations and the disappearance of the shawii clade from Morocco (except in the most eastern areas). Both species then re-expanded, benefitting from the increasing aridity and the new ecological niche driven by agriculture

  19. Disparity changes in 370 Ma Devonian fossils: the signature of ecological dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Catherine; Renaud, Sabrina

    2012-01-01

    Early periods in Earth's history have seen a progressive increase in complexity of the ecosystems, but also dramatic crises decimating the biosphere. Such patterns are usually considered as large-scale changes among supra-specific groups, including morphological novelties, radiation, and extinctions. Nevertheless, in the same time, each species evolved by the way of micro-evolutionary processes, extended over millions of years into the evolution of lineages. How these two evolutionary scales interacted is a challenging issue because this requires bridging a gap between scales of observation and processes. The present study aims at transferring a typical macro-evolutionary approach, namely disparity analysis, to the study of fine-scale evolutionary variations in order to decipher what processes actually drove the dynamics of diversity at a micro-evolutionary level. The Late Frasnian to Late Famennian period was selected because it is punctuated by two major macro-evolutionary crises, as well as a progressive diversification of marine ecosystem. Disparity was estimated through this period on conodonts, tooth-like fossil remains of small eel-like predators that were part of the nektonic fauna. The study was focused on the emblematic genus of the period, Palmatolepis. Strikingly, both crises affected an already impoverished Palmatolepis disparity, increasing risks of random extinction. The major disparity signal rather emerged as a cycle of increase and decrease in disparity during the inter-crises period. The diversification shortly followed the first crisis and might correspond to an opportunistic occupation of empty ecological niche. The subsequent oriented shrinking in the morphospace occupation suggests that the ecological space available to Palmatolepis decreased through time, due to a combination of factors: deteriorating climate, expansion of competitors and predators. Disparity changes of Palmatolepis thus reflect changes in the structure of the ecological

  20. Disparity changes in 370 Ma Devonian fossils: the signature of ecological dynamics?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Girard

    Full Text Available Early periods in Earth's history have seen a progressive increase in complexity of the ecosystems, but also dramatic crises decimating the biosphere. Such patterns are usually considered as large-scale changes among supra-specific groups, including morphological novelties, radiation, and extinctions. Nevertheless, in the same time, each species evolved by the way of micro-evolutionary processes, extended over millions of years into the evolution of lineages. How these two evolutionary scales interacted is a challenging issue because this requires bridging a gap between scales of observation and processes. The present study aims at transferring a typical macro-evolutionary approach, namely disparity analysis, to the study of fine-scale evolutionary variations in order to decipher what processes actually drove the dynamics of diversity at a micro-evolutionary level. The Late Frasnian to Late Famennian period was selected because it is punctuated by two major macro-evolutionary crises, as well as a progressive diversification of marine ecosystem. Disparity was estimated through this period on conodonts, tooth-like fossil remains of small eel-like predators that were part of the nektonic fauna. The study was focused on the emblematic genus of the period, Palmatolepis. Strikingly, both crises affected an already impoverished Palmatolepis disparity, increasing risks of random extinction. The major disparity signal rather emerged as a cycle of increase and decrease in disparity during the inter-crises period. The diversification shortly followed the first crisis and might correspond to an opportunistic occupation of empty ecological niche. The subsequent oriented shrinking in the morphospace occupation suggests that the ecological space available to Palmatolepis decreased through time, due to a combination of factors: deteriorating climate, expansion of competitors and predators. Disparity changes of Palmatolepis thus reflect changes in the structure

  1. Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

    2018-01-01

    Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

  2. A paradigm analysis of ecological sustainability: The emerging polycentric climate change publics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taminiau, Job B.

    Climate change poses significant complications to the development model employed by modern societies. Using paradigm analysis, the dissertation explains why, after 21 years, policy failure haunts the field: a key impediment is the unquestioned assumption that policy must adhere to an economic optimality principle. This results in policy models which fail to uphold sustainability, justice, and equality due to an emphasis on economic growth, technology, and technical and bureaucratic expertise. Unable to build consensus among low- and high-carbon economies, and s