WorldWideScience

Sample records for anthropogenic ecological change

  1. Water stress projections for the northeastern and Midwestern United States in 2060: anthropogenic and ecological consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian G. Tavernia; Mark D. Nelson; Peter Caldwell; Ge Sun

    2013-01-01

    Future climate and land-use changes and growing human populations may reduce the abundance of water resources relative to anthropogenic and ecological needs in the Northeast and Midwest (U.S.). We used output from WaSSI, a water accounting model, to assess potential changes between 2010 and 2060 in (1) anthropogenic water stress for watersheds throughout the Northeast...

  2. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between...... climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...

  3. The evaluation of anthropogenic impact on the ecological stability of landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaeli, Eva; Ivanová, Monika; Koco, Štefan

    2015-01-01

    The model area is the northern surrounding of the water reservoir Zemplinska Irava in the east of Slovakia. Selection of the examined territory and the time horizons was not random. The aim was to capture the intensity level of anthropogenic impact on the values of the coefficient of ecological stability after the construction of water reservoir, Zempifnska Irava. The contribution evaluates ecological stability of landscape in the years 1956 and 2009 by GIS technology, using two methods. The first method determines the rate of ecological stability of landscape on the basis of the significance of land cover classes in the regular network of squares (the real size of the square is 0.5 square km). The second method determines the ecological stability of landscape secondary on the basis of the man influence on the landscape. A comparison of two methods has been made, as well as interpretation of the output data (e.g., monitoring the impact of marginal land cover classes with the minimal surfaces in the grid of square at the fluctuation of the index of ecological stability, respectively, it considers the possibilities to streamline the research results using homogeneous spatial units) and it also allows to track the changes in the ecological stability of the landscape in chronological development.

  4. Measuring ecological change of aquatic macrophytes in Mediterranean rivers

    OpenAIRE

    Dodkins, Ian; Aguiar, Francisca; Rivaes, Rui; Albuquerque, António; Rodriguez-Gonzalez, Patricia; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2012-01-01

    A metric was developed for assessing anthropogenic impacts on aquatic macrophyte ecology by scoring macrophyte species along the main gradient of community change. A measure of ecological quality was then calculated by Weighted Averaging (WA) of these species scores at a monitoring site, and comparison to a reference condition score. This metric was used to illustrate the difficulties of developing aquatic macrophyte indices based on indicator species in Mediterranean rivers. The ...

  5. Attenuating initial beliefs: increasing the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change information by reflecting on values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Prooijen, Anne-Marie; Sparks, Paul

    2014-05-01

    Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self-affirmation via reflection on personally important values could attenuate the impact of initial beliefs on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change evidence. Our findings showed that initial beliefs about the human impact on ecological stability influenced the acceptance of information only among nonaffirmed participants. Self-affirmed participants who were initially resistant toward the information showed stronger beliefs in the existence of climate change risks and greater acknowledgment that individual efficacy has a role to play in reducing climate change risks than did their nonaffirmed counterparts. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2018-03-01

    Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

  7. Plankton food-web functioning in anthropogenically impacted coastal waters (SW Mediterranean Sea): An ecological network analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meddeb, Marouan; Grami, Boutheïna; Chaalali, Aurélie; Haraldsson, Matilda; Niquil, Nathalie; Pringault, Olivier; Sakka Hlaili, Asma

    2018-03-01

    combined with ecological indices provide a powerful approach to detect change in environmental status and anthropogenic impacts.

  8. Quantifying Anthropogenic Dust Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Nicholas P.; Pierre, Caroline

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic land use and land cover change, including local environmental disturbances, moderate rates of wind-driven soil erosion and dust emission. These human-dust cycle interactions impact ecosystems and agricultural production, air quality, human health, biogeochemical cycles, and climate. While the impacts of land use activities and land management on aeolian processes can be profound, the interactions are often complex and assessments of anthropogenic dust loads at all scales remain highly uncertain. Here, we critically review the drivers of anthropogenic dust emission and current evaluation approaches. We then identify and describe opportunities to: (1) develop new conceptual frameworks and interdisciplinary approaches that draw on ecological state-and-transition models to improve the accuracy and relevance of assessments of anthropogenic dust emissions; (2) improve model fidelity and capacity for change detection to quantify anthropogenic impacts on aeolian processes; and (3) enhance field research and monitoring networks to support dust model applications to evaluate the impacts of disturbance processes on local to global-scale wind erosion and dust emissions.

  9. Anthropogenic ecological change and impacts on mosquito breeding and control strategies in salt-marshes, Northern Territory, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacups, Susan; Warchot, Allan; Whelan, Peter

    2012-06-01

    Darwin, in the tropical north of Australia, is subject to high numbers of mosquitoes and several mosquito-borne diseases. Many of Darwin's residential areas were built in close proximity to tidally influenced swamps, where long-term storm-water run-off from nearby residences into these swamps has led to anthropogenic induced ecological change. When natural wet-dry cycles were disrupted, bare mud-flats and mangroves were transformed into perennial fresh to brackish-water reed swamps. Reed swamps provided year-round breeding habitat for many mosquito species, such that mosquito abundance was less predictable and seasonally dependent, but constant and often occurring in plague proportions. Drainage channels were constructed throughout the wetlands to reduce pooled water during dry-season months. This study assesses the impact of drainage interventions on vegetation and mosquito ecology in three salt-marshes in the Darwin area. Findings revealed a universal decline in dry-season mosquito abundance in each wetland system. However, some mosquito species increased in abundance during wet-season months. Due to the high expense and potentially detrimental environmental impacts of ecosystem and non-target species disturbance, large-scale modifications such as these are sparingly undertaken. However, our results indicate that some large scale environmental modification can assist the process of wetland restoration, as appears to be the case for these salt marsh systems. Drainage in all three systems has been restored to closer to their original salt-marsh ecosystems, while reducing mosquito abundances, thereby potentially lowering the risk of vector-borne disease transmission and mosquito pest biting problems.

  10. Anthropogenic Influences on Estuarine Sedimentation and Ecology: Examples from Varved Sediments of the Pettaquamscutt River Estuary, Rhode Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estuaries and lakes are undergoing anthropogenic alterations as development and industry intensify in the modern world. Assessing the ecological health of such water bodies is difficult because accurate accounts of pre-anthropogenic estuarine/lacustrine conditions do not exist. ...

  11. Anthropogenic Influences on Estuarine Sedimentation and Ecology: Examples from Varved Sediments of the Pettaquanscutt River Estuary, Rhode Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estuaries and lakes are undergoing anthropogenic alterations as development and industry intensify in the modern world. Assessing the ecological health of such water bodies is difficult because accurate accounts of pre-anthropogenic estuarine/lacustrine conditions do not exist. S...

  12. The influence of the interactions between anthropogenic activities and multiple ecological factors on land surface temperatures of urban forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Context Land surface temperatures (LSTs) spatio-temporal distribution pattern of urban forests are influenced by many ecological factors; the identification of interaction between these factors can improve simulations and predictions of spatial patterns of urban cold islands. This quantitative research requires an integrated method that combines multiple sources data with spatial statistical analysis. Objectives The purpose of this study was to clarify urban forest LST influence interaction between anthropogenic activities and multiple ecological factors using cluster analysis of hot and cold spots and Geogdetector model. We introduced the hypothesis that anthropogenic activity interacts with certain ecological factors, and their combination influences urban forests LST. We also assumed that spatio-temporal distributions of urban forest LST should be similar to those of ecological factors and can be represented quantitatively. Methods We used Jinjiang as a representative city in China as a case study. Population density was employed to represent anthropogenic activity. We built up a multi-source data (forest inventory, digital elevation models (DEM), population, and remote sensing imagery) on a unified urban scale to support urban forest LST influence interaction research. Through a combination of spatial statistical analysis results, multi-source spatial data, and Geogdetector model, the interaction mechanisms of urban forest LST were revealed. Results Although different ecological factors have different influences on forest LST, in two periods with different hot spots and cold spots, the patch area and dominant tree species were the main factors contributing to LST clustering in urban forests. The interaction between anthropogenic activity and multiple ecological factors increased LST in urban forest stands, linearly and nonlinearly. Strong interactions between elevation and dominant species were generally observed and were prevalent in either hot or cold spots

  13. Florida Bay: A history of recent ecological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fourqurean, J.W.; Robblee, M.B.

    1999-01-01

    Florida Bay is a unique subtropical estuary at the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. Recent ecological changes (seagrass die-off, algal blooms, increased turbidity) to the Florida Bay ecosystem have focused the attention of the public, commercial interests, scientists, and resource managers on the factors influencing the structure and function of Florida Bay. Restoring Florida Bay to some historic condition is the goal of resource managers, but what is not clear is what an anthropogenically-unaltered Florida Bay would look like. While there is general consensus that human activities have contributed to the changes occurring in the Florida Bay ecosystem, a high degree of natural system variability has made elucidation of the links between human activity and Florida Bay dynamics difficult. Paleoecological analyses, examination of long-term datasets, and directed measurements of aspects of the ecology of Florida Bay all contribute to our understanding of the behavior of the bay, and allow quantification of the magnitude of the recent ecological changes with respect to historical variability of the system.

  14. Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Andrew D; Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Stock, Charles A

    2016-03-15

    Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951-2000) and future (2051-2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec(-1)), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec(-1) The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

  15. DEPENDENCE OF GRASS COVER TAXONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL STRUCTURE ON THE ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACT IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. V. Miroshnik

    2016-01-01

    revealed the domination of plant species that are tolerant to transformed forest conditions due to drastic anthropogenic changes of ecological regimes in Chygyryn's Bor. Key words: grass cover, Chigirin's Bor, anthropogenic impact, forest ecosystem, industrial transformation and degradation of grass cover.

  16. Environmental and ecological changes associated with a marina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivero, Natalie K; Dafforn, Katherine A; Coleman, Melinda A; Johnston, Emma L

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic modifications to waterways are common and their ecological consequences must be understood to effectively conserve local biodiversity. The facilitation of recreational boating activities often requires substantial alteration of natural areas, however the environmental and ecological consequences of such alterations are rarely described in the scientific literature. In this study, ecological and physico-chemical conditions were investigated in a recreational boating marina, located inside a marine park on the south-east coast of Australia. Recruitment panels were deployed for 8 weeks both inside and outside the marina, and differences in the composition of the developing fouling communities were observed. The recruitment of taxa, which often have short-lived larvae, was increased inside the marina (bryozoans, spirorbids and sponges) while the recruitment of taxa, which often have longer-lived larvae, was reduced or absent (barnacles, solitary ascidians and non-spirorbid polychaetes). Differences were also observed in environmental conditions inside the marina cf. directly outside. The marina environment had higher turbidity, temperature and pH along with higher concentrations of lead and copper in suspended sediments, while flow rates and trapped sediment loads were reduced inside the marina. The differences observed in the study suggest that there may be marked environmental changes associated with marina developments. The potential ecological consequences of these changes should be a primary consideration during the planning process, particularly for developments in locations of notable ecological value.

  17. Assessment of the effect of anthropogenic pollution on the ecology of small shallow lakes using the palaeolimnological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiiu Koff

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Palaeolimnological techniques were utilized to determine the extent of the effect of anthropogenic pollutants or other environmental stressors on three lake ecosystems over the last 200 years. The ecology of the study sites has experienced significant changes due to various activities such as (1 extensive catchment drainage and using poisoning as a fish management measure, (2 seepage of urban waste water due to establishment and growth of a town and (3 artificial inflow of oil-shale mining waters. Sediment geochemical composition, fossil pigments and Cladocera remains from the sediment cores were analysed to demonstrate that sufficient information can be derived from sediments to permit a historical reconstruction. The integrated use of archival maps, historical records and lake monitoring data confirmed links to anthropogenic pollutants, primarily on the catchment level. The examples show how the sediment indicators provide unique insights into the causes and temporal dynamics of lake ecosystem changes relevant for environmental management decisions. This study demonstrates that palaeolimnology has great potential to assist in eutrophication assessment and management efforts in waterbodies.

  18. Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaver, T.L.; Clark, C.M.; Compton, J.E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C.P.; Band, L.E.; Baron, Jill S.; Davidson, E.A.; Tague, C.L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J.A.; Herrick, J.D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C.L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

  19. Detecting anthropogenic climate change with an optimal fingerprint method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegerl, G.C.; Storch, H. von; Hasselmann, K.; Santer, B.D.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    We propose a general fingerprint strategy to detect anthropogenic climate change and present application to near surface temperature trends. An expected time-space-variable pattern of anthropogenic climate change (the 'signal') is identified through application of an appropriate optimally matched space-time filter (the 'fingerprint') to the observations. The signal and the fingerprint are represented in a space with sufficient observed and simulated data. The signal pattern is derived from a model-generated prediction of anthropogenic climate change. Application of the fingerprint filter to the data yields a scalar detection variable. The statistically optimal fingerprint is obtained by weighting the model-predicted pattern towards low-noise directions. A combination of model output and observations is used to estimate the noise characteristics of the detection variable, arising from the natural variability of climate in the absence of external forcing. We test then the null hypothesis that the observed climate change is part of natural climate variability. We conclude that a statistically significant externally induced warming has been observed, with the caveat of a possibly inadequate estimate of the internal climate variability. In order to attribute this warming uniquely to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, more information on the climate's response to other forcing mechanisms (e.g. changes in solar radiation, volcanic or anthropogenic aerosols) and their interaction is needed. (orig./KW)

  20. Use of Anthropogenic Sea Floor Structures by Australian Fur Seals: Potential Positive Ecological Impacts of Marine Industrial Development?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnould, John P Y; Monk, Jacquomo; Ierodiaconou, Daniel; Hindell, Mark A; Semmens, Jayson; Hoskins, Andrew J; Costa, Daniel P; Abernathy, Kyler; Marshall, Greg J

    2015-01-01

    Human-induced changes to habitats can have deleterious effects on many species that occupy them. However, some species can adapt and even benefit from such modifications. Artificial reefs have long been used to provide habitat for invertebrate communities and promote local fish populations. With the increasing demand for energy resources within ocean systems, there has been an expansion of infrastructure in near-shore benthic environments which function as de facto artificial reefs. Little is known of their use by marine mammals. In this study, the influence of anthropogenic sea floor structures (pipelines, cable routes, wells and shipwrecks) on the foraging locations of 36 adult female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) was investigated. For 9 (25%) of the individuals, distance to anthropogenic sea floor structures was the most important factor in determining the location of intensive foraging activity. Whereas the influence of anthropogenic sea floor structures on foraging locations was not related to age and mass, it was positively related to flipper length/standard length (a factor which can affect manoeuvrability). A total of 26 (72%) individuals tracked with GPS were recorded spending time in the vicinity of structures (from 75% of the foraging trip duration) with pipelines and cable routes being the most frequented. No relationships were found between the amount of time spent frequenting anthropogenic structures and individual characteristics. More than a third (35%) of animals foraging near anthropogenic sea floor structures visited more than one type of structure. These results further highlight potentially beneficial ecological outcomes of marine industrial development.

  1. Use of Anthropogenic Sea Floor Structures by Australian Fur Seals: Potential Positive Ecological Impacts of Marine Industrial Development?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P Y Arnould

    Full Text Available Human-induced changes to habitats can have deleterious effects on many species that occupy them. However, some species can adapt and even benefit from such modifications. Artificial reefs have long been used to provide habitat for invertebrate communities and promote local fish populations. With the increasing demand for energy resources within ocean systems, there has been an expansion of infrastructure in near-shore benthic environments which function as de facto artificial reefs. Little is known of their use by marine mammals. In this study, the influence of anthropogenic sea floor structures (pipelines, cable routes, wells and shipwrecks on the foraging locations of 36 adult female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus was investigated. For 9 (25% of the individuals, distance to anthropogenic sea floor structures was the most important factor in determining the location of intensive foraging activity. Whereas the influence of anthropogenic sea floor structures on foraging locations was not related to age and mass, it was positively related to flipper length/standard length (a factor which can affect manoeuvrability. A total of 26 (72% individuals tracked with GPS were recorded spending time in the vicinity of structures (from 75% of the foraging trip duration with pipelines and cable routes being the most frequented. No relationships were found between the amount of time spent frequenting anthropogenic structures and individual characteristics. More than a third (35% of animals foraging near anthropogenic sea floor structures visited more than one type of structure. These results further highlight potentially beneficial ecological outcomes of marine industrial development.

  2. Anthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Beirne, M D; Werne, J P; Hecky, R E; Johnson, T C; Katsev, S; Reavie, E D

    2017-06-09

    Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter many facets of Earth's freshwater resources, especially lacustrine ecosystems. The effects of anthropogenic changes in Lake Superior, which is Earth's largest freshwater lake by area, are not well documented (spatially or temporally) and predicted future states in response to climate change vary. Here we show that Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in production throughout the Holocene using (paleo)productivity proxies in lacustrine sediments to reconstruct past changes in primary production. Furthermore, data from the last century indicate a rapid increase in primary production, which we attribute to increasing surface water temperatures and longer seasonal stratification related to longer ice-free periods in Lake Superior due to anthropogenic climate warming. These observations demonstrate that anthropogenic effects have become a prominent influence on one of Earth's largest, most pristine lacustrine ecosystems.

  3. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, G; Stone, D

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

  4. Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gudmundsson, L; Seneviratne, S I

    2016-01-01

    Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures. (letter)

  5. Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boivin, Nicole L; Zeder, Melinda A; Fuller, Dorian Q; Crowther, Alison; Larson, Greger; Erlandson, Jon M; Denham, Tim; Petraglia, Michael D

    2016-06-07

    The exhibition of increasingly intensive and complex niche construction behaviors through time is a key feature of human evolution, culminating in the advanced capacity for ecosystem engineering exhibited by Homo sapiens A crucial outcome of such behaviors has been the dramatic reshaping of the global biosphere, a transformation whose early origins are increasingly apparent from cumulative archaeological and paleoecological datasets. Such data suggest that, by the Late Pleistocene, humans had begun to engage in activities that have led to alterations in the distributions of a vast array of species across most, if not all, taxonomic groups. Changes to biodiversity have included extinctions, extirpations, and shifts in species composition, diversity, and community structure. We outline key examples of these changes, highlighting findings from the study of new datasets, like ancient DNA (aDNA), stable isotopes, and microfossils, as well as the application of new statistical and computational methods to datasets that have accumulated significantly in recent decades. We focus on four major phases that witnessed broad anthropogenic alterations to biodiversity-the Late Pleistocene global human expansion, the Neolithic spread of agriculture, the era of island colonization, and the emergence of early urbanized societies and commercial networks. Archaeological evidence documents millennia of anthropogenic transformations that have created novel ecosystems around the world. This record has implications for ecological and evolutionary research, conservation strategies, and the maintenance of ecosystem services, pointing to a significant need for broader cross-disciplinary engagement between archaeology and the biological and environmental sciences.

  6. Modelling of anthropogenic and natural climate changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H; Mikolajewicz, U; Bakan, S [Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)

    1993-06-01

    The delay of anthropogenic climate change caused by oceans and other slowly reacting climate system components forces us to numerical modeling as the basis of decisions. For three three-dimensional numerical examples, namely transient coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the additional greenhouse effect, internal ocean-atmosphere variability, and disturbance by soot particles from burning oil wells, the present-day status is described. From all anthropogenic impacts on the radiative balance, the contribution from trace gases is the most important.

  7. Past and Future of the Anthropogenic Biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, E. C.

    2010-12-01

    Human populations and their use of land have now transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes). As anthromes have emerged as the dominant global forms of ecological pattern and process, human interactions with terrestrial ecosystems have become a key earth system process, determining the structure and functioning of the biosphere. This presentation explores Ester Boserup’s land use intensification theories as models for understanding the emergence and dynamics of anthromes and their ecological processes, including their biogeochemistry and community structure, from the mostly wild biosphere of the Holocene to the primarily anthropogenic biosphere of the present and future. Existing global models and data for human population growth and land use over the Holocene differ in their portrayal of the global transition to a mostly anthropogenic biosphere. Yet there is little doubt that human populations have continued to grow over the long term and that anthromes have been increasingly important global ecological systems for millennia. This is conclusive evidence that human interactions with ecosystems can be sustained over the long-term, albeit under conditions that may no longer be realizable by either Earth or human systems. The classic Malthusian paradigm, in which human population growth outstrips natural resources leading to population collapse is unsupported by historical observations at global scale. Boserupian intensification is the better model, providing a robust theoretical foundation in which socio-ecological systems evolve as human populations increase, towards increasingly efficient use of limiting natural resources and enhanced production of anthropogenic ecological services such as food. This is not a story of technical advance, but rather of the forced adoption of ever more energy-intensive technical solutions in support of ever increasing population demands. And it does explain historical changes in the biosphere

  8. Restoring fish ecological quality in estuaries: Implication of interactive and cumulative effects among anthropogenic stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teichert, Nils; Borja, Angel; Chust, Guillem; Uriarte, Ainhize; Lepage, Mario

    2016-01-15

    Estuaries are subjected to multiple anthropogenic stressors, which have additive, antagonistic or synergistic effects. Current challenges include the use of large databases of biological monitoring surveys (e.g. the European Water Framework Directive) to help environmental managers prioritizing restoration measures. This study investigated the impact of nine stressor categories on the fish ecological status derived from 90 estuaries of the North East Atlantic countries. We used a random forest model to: 1) detect the dominant stressors and their non-linear effects; 2) evaluate the ecological benefits expected from reducing pressure from stressors; and 3) investigate the interactions among stressors. Results showed that largest restoration benefits were expected when mitigating water pollution and oxygen depletion. Non-additive effects represented half of pairwise interactions among stressors, and antagonisms were the most common. Dredged sediments, flow changes and oxygen depletion were predominantly implicated in non-additive interactions, whereas the remainder stressors often showed additive impacts. The prevalence of interactive impacts reflects a complex scenario for estuaries management; hence, we proposed a step-by-step restoration scheme focusing on the mitigation of stressors providing the maximum of restoration benefits under a multi-stress context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abatzoglou, John T; Williams, A Park

    2016-10-18

    Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

  10. Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nian-Zhi Jiao

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of China seas and coasts are undergoing rapid changes under the strong influences of both global climate change and anthropogenic activities. To understand the scope of these changes and the mechanisms behind them is of paramount importance for the sustainable development of China, and for the establishment of national policies on environment protection and climate change mitigation. Here we provide a brief review of the impacts of global climate change and human activities on the oceans in general, and on the ecosystems of China seas and coasts in particular. More importantly, we discuss the challenges we are facing and propose several research foci for China seas/coasts ecosystem studies, including long-term time series observations on multiple scales, facilities for simulation study, blue carbon, coastal ecological security, prediction of ecosystem evolution and ecosystem-based management. We also establish a link to the Future Earth program from the perspectives of two newly formed national alliances, the China Future Ocean Alliance and the Pan-China Ocean Carbon Alliance.

  11. Fishers’ local knowledge on impact of climate change and anthropogenic interferences on Hilsa fishery in South Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jahan, Israt; Ahsan, Dewan; Farque, Md Hasan

    2017-01-01

    fishers’ perceptions on effect of climate change and anthropogenic impact on Hilsa fishery at lower Meghna. Fishers’ ecological knowledge indicates that the stock of Hilsa is declining due to several adverse climatic conditions such as increased water temperature, salinity intrusion and low freshwater....... The study also indicates that the major constraints to adopt with the change situation are low level of human capital and restricted access to the formal credit system. Therefore, incorporation of local knowledge in governmental policy formulation and public support to improve human skill are essential...

  12. On Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference and Climate Change Risk (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M. E.

    2009-12-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits signatory nations (which includes all major nations including the United States) to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at levels short of Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (“ DAI”) with the climate. To properly define DAI, one must take into account issues that are not only scientific, but, economic, political, and ethical in nature. Defining DAI is furthermore complicated by the inter-generational and regionally-disaggregated nature of the risks associated with climate change. In this talk, I will explore the nature of anthropogenic climate change risks and the notion of DAI.

  13. Individual and Interactive Influences of Anthropogenic and Ecological Factors on Forest PM2.5 Concentrations at an Urban Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoliang Yun

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Integration of Landsat images and multisource data using spatial statistical analysis and geographical detector models can reveal the individual and interactive influences of anthropogenic activities and ecological factors on concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5. This approach has been used in many studies to estimate biomass and forest disturbance patterns and to monitor carbon sinks. However, the approach has rarely been used to comprehensively analyze the individual and interactive influences of anthropogenic factors (e.g., population density, impervious surface percentage and ecological factors (e.g., canopy density, stand age, and elevation on PM2.5 concentrations. To do this, we used Landsat-8 images and meteorological data to retrieve quantitative data on the concentrations of particulates (PM2.5, then integrated a forest management planning inventory (FMPI, population density distribution data, meteorological data, and topographic data in a Geographic Information System database, and applied a spatial statistical analysis model to identify aggregated areas (hot spots and cold spots of particulates in the urban area of Jinjiang city, China. A geographical detector model was used to analyze the individual and interactive influences of anthropogenic and ecological factors on PM2.5 concentrations. We found that particulate concentration hot spots are mainly distributed in urban centers and suburbs, while cold spots are mainly distributed in the suburbs and exurban region. Elevation was the dominant individual factor affecting PM2.5 concentrations, followed by dominant tree species and meteorological factors. A combination of human activities (e.g., population density, impervious surface percentage and multiple ecological factors caused the dominant interactive effects, resulting in increased PM2.5 concentrations. Our study suggests that human activities and multiple ecological factors

  14. Island biogeography and landscape structure: Integrating ecological concepts in a landscape perspective of anthropogenic impacts in temporary wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angeler, David G.; Alvarez-Cobelas, Miguel

    2005-01-01

    Although our understanding of environmental risk assessment in temporary wetlands has been improved by the use of multi-species toxicity testing, we still know little of how landscape variables mediate the strength of, and recovery from, anthropogenic stress in such ecosystems. To bridge this research gap, we provide a theoretical framework of the response of temporary wetlands to anthropogenic disturbance along a habitat-isolation continuum based on island biogeography theory, landscape ecology and dispersal and colonization strategies of temporary wetland organisms. - Environmental risk assessment in temporary wetlands may benefit from consideration of island biogeography theory and landscape structure

  15. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Gerrit Hansen

    Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced

  16. Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunderson, Alex R; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H

    2017-07-01

    A major focus of current ecological research is to understand how global change makes species vulnerable to extirpation. To date, mechanistic ecophysiological analyses of global change vulnerability have focused primarily on the direct effects of changing abiotic conditions on whole-organism physiological traits, such as metabolic rate, locomotor performance, cardiac function, and critical thermal limits. However, species do not live in isolation within their physical environments, and direct effects of climate change are likely to be compounded by indirect effects that result from altered interactions with other species, such as competitors and predators. The Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology 2017 Symposium "Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences" was designed to synthesize multiple approaches to investigating the indirect effects of global change by bringing together researchers that study the indirect effects of global change from multiple perspectives across habitat, type of anthropogenic change, and level of biological organization. Our goal in bringing together researchers from different backgrounds was to foster cross-disciplinary insights into the mechanistic bases and higher-order ecological consequences of indirect effects of global change, and to promote collaboration among fields. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Assessment of ecologically relevant hydrological change in China due to water use and reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zhang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available As China's economy booms, increasing water use has significantly affected hydro-geomorphic processes and thus the ecology of surface waters. A large variety of hydrological changes arising from human activities such as reservoir construction and management, water abstraction, water diversion and agricultural land expansion have been sustained throughout China. Using the global scale hydrological and water use model WaterGAP, natural and anthropogenically altered flow conditions are calculated, taking into account flow alterations due to human water consumption and 580 large reservoirs. The impacts resulting from water consumption and reservoirs have been analyzed separately. A modified "Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration" approach is used to describe the human pressures on aquatic ecosystems due to anthropogenic alterations in river flow regimes. The changes in long-term average river discharge, average monthly mean discharge and coefficients of variation of monthly river discharges under natural and impacted conditions are compared and analyzed. The indicators show very significant alterations of natural river flow regimes in a large part of northern China and only minor alterations in most of southern China. The detected large alterations in long-term average river discharge, the seasonality of flows and the inter-annual variability in the northern half of China are very likely to have caused significant ecological impacts.

  18. U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

    2009-02-01

    We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

  19. Emergence of acute/subacute infant-juvenile paracoccidioidomycosis in Northeast Argentina: Effect of climatic and anthropogenic changes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giusiano, Gustavo; Aguirre, Clarisa; Vratnica, Claudia; Rojas, Florencia; Corallo, Teresa; Cattana, María Emilia; Fernández, Mariana; Mussin, Javier; de Los Angeles Sosa, María

    2018-01-13

    Argentina has two endemic areas of paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM). Bordering Paraguay and Brazil, Northeast Argentina (NEA) comprises the area with the highest incidence where the chronic adult clinical form has historically been reported. Juvenile form in children and adolescents is rare in this area since only one case was reported in the last 10 years. Despite this, between 2010 and 2012, several cases of acute/subacute clinical forms in children aged 10 to 16 (median 12) were detected. In the last decade, the NEA region has been exposed to ecological variations as consequences of certain climatic and anthropogenic changes, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon during 2009, and deforestation. The region has also suffered from the significant ecological effects of the construction of one of the biggest hydroelectric dams of South America. This study aims to describe clinical and epidemiological aspects of acute/subacute PCM cases detected in children from NEA and to discuss climatic and anthropogenic changes as possible contributing factors in the emergence of this disease in children. This acute/subacute PCM cluster was characterized by severe disseminated and aggressive presentations to localized form, with a high spectrum of clinical manifestations uncommonly observed. Due to the lack of experience in acute/subacute PCM in children in the studied area and the atypical clinical manifestations observed, the diagnosis was delayed. In order to avoid misdiagnosis, a higher level of suspicion is now required in NEA and countries bordering the southern part of the endemic area, which are affected by the changes discussed in this article. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The International Society for Human and Animal Mycology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  1. Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew D.

    2017-11-01

    Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record breaking in a given time series is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

  2. Attribution of irreversible loss to anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Bresch, David; Hansen, Gerrit; James, Rachel; Mechler, Reinhard; Stone, Dáithí; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo

    2016-04-01

    The Paris Agreement (2015) under the UNFCCC has anchored loss and damage in a separate article which specifies that understanding and support should be enhanced in areas addressing loss and damage such as early warning, preparedness, insurance and resilience. Irreversible loss is a special category under loss and damage but there is still missing clarity over what irreversible loss actually includes. Many negative impacts of climate change may be handled or mitigated by existing risk management, reduction and absorption approaches. Irreversible loss, however, is thought to be insufficiently addressed by risk management. Therefore, countries potentially or actually affected by irreversible loss are calling for other measures such as compensation, which however is highly contested in international climate policy. In Paris (2015) a decision was adopted that loss and damage as defined in the respective article of the agreement does not involve compensation and liability. Nevertheless, it is likely that some sort of mechanism will eventually need to come into play for irreversible loss due to anthropogenic climate change, which might involve compensation, other forms of non-monetary reparation, or transformation. Furthermore, climate litigation has increasingly been attempted to address negative effects of climate change. In this context, attribution is important to understand the drivers of change, what counts as irreversible loss due to climate change, and, possibly, who or what is responsible. Here we approach this issue by applying a detection and attribution perspective on irreversible loss. We first analyze detected climate change impacts as assessed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. We distinguish between irreversible loss in physical, biological and human systems, and accordingly identify the following candidates of irreversible loss in these systems: loss of glaciers and ice sheets, loss of subsurface ice (permafrost) and related loss of lake systems; loss

  3. Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

    2011-07-19

    Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

  4. Long-term Increases in Flower Production by Growth Forms in Response to Anthropogenic Change in a Tropical Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pau, S.; Wright, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    There is mounting evidence that anthropogenic global change is altering the ecology of tropical forests. A limited number of studies have focused on long-term trends in tropical reproductive activity, yet differences in reproductive activity should have consequences for demography and ultimately forest carbon, water, and energy balance. Here we analyze a 28-year record of tropical flower production in response to anthropogenic climate change. We show that a multi-decadal increase in flower production is most strongly driven by rising atmospheric CO2, which had approximately 8x the effect of the Multivariate ENSO Index and approximately 13x the effect of rainfall or solar radiation. Interannual peaks in flower production were associated with greater solar radiation and low rainfall during El Niño years. Observed changes in solar radiation explained flower production better than rainfall (models including solar radiation accounted for 94% of cumulative AICc weight compared to 87% for rainfall). All growth forms (lianas, canopy trees, midstory trees, and shrubs) produced more flowers with increasing CO2 except for understory treelets. The increase in flower production was matched by a lengthening of flowering duration for canopy trees and midstory trees; duration was also longer for understory treelets. Given that anthropogenic CO2 emissions will continue to climb over the next century, the long-term increase in flower production may persist unless offset by increasing cloudiness in the tropics, or until rising CO2 and/or warming temperatures associated with the greenhouse effect pass critical thresholds for plant reproduction.

  5. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C; Hartter, Joel; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary; Moore, David W; Safford, Thomas G

    2015-01-01

    A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

  6. REFLECTION OF THE THEME OF THE ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE VORKUTA REGION OF THE KOMI REPUBLIC IN THE RUSSIAN ECOLOGICAL ATLAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. I. Markova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Pechora coal basin is a second reserve of coal and lignite basins in Russia after Kuznetsk. Vorkuta industrial region (VIR, located north of the Arctic Circle, mastered since 1931. Coal mining closed method is produced in five mines. The depth of mining is 298 m. It is deeper than in the Kuznetsk coal basin. Since 2000, opencast mining is making in the Yunyaginsky mine. Field elaboration for more than 80 years has spawned a number of environmental problems specific to the area of coal mining. There are: the formation of anthropogenic landforms, emissions of the dust, heavy metals, the passing methane in the air, waters and soils, reduction and disappearance of aboriginal species of animals and plants. These problems are compounded by harsh natural conditions of Russian North, by special vulnerability of the environment in the tundra zone (subzone of southern shrub tundra. The map of Vorkuta industrial region was making for Ecological Atlas of Russia among other maps of impact areas with very poor ecological situation. The map in the scale 1:200 000 was produced with using of space images and literature data. It include: sources of anthropogenic impacts on the environment (coal mines, enrichment factory, sumps, enterprises of other industry branch, populated localities, roads and different changes in the environment. Anthropogenic forms of relief, a dust content in the air on excess of maximum allowable concentrations, a content of microelements in the air, soils and rock mine dumps, an area of pollution of the cement factory, a polluted piece of the river Vorkuta and a fish productivity of separate pieces of the river Vorkuta are shown on the map by signs and diagrams. Diagrams of the number of species of regional fauna of birds (on natural and changed areas and diagrams of relation of valuable and weed species of fish on different river pieces were built outside the map.

  7. Nuclear Renaissance in an Era of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bird, John

    2008-01-01

    This paper substantiates the anthropogenic origin of climate change, demonstrates the resulting consequences, and thereby establishes the need for a nuclear renaissance over the next thirty years. First, the mechanisms behind the natural cycles in global warming, specifically, cycles of precession and eccentricity in Earth's orbit, as measured in ice cores, are compared to the mechanisms of anthropogenic warming, revealing the scientific basis for the observed correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature. Second, the resulting climate change is exemplified by key results from experiments performed by the author in the Arctic and at the South Geographic Pole, and the author's experience of Switzerland's costliest natural catastrophe - the flash flood of 2005. Third, although facing barriers such as research and development requirements, political will and public acceptance, the potential for nuclear power to triple to 1,000 GWe by 2050 would mitigate climate change by holding carbon dioxide concentration below 500 ppm, thereby challenging the younger nuclear generation to contribute to the most important issue facing humanity. (authors)

  8. Assessment of the influence of anthropogenic factors on elements of the ecological network in Vojvodina (Serbia using the Leopold matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kicošev Vesna

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Salt steppes and marshes represent the most valuable ecosystems in the world, providing numerous ecosystem services that are extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic influences. These types of habitat in the territory of Serbia are most dominant in Banat and a significant portion of them is under protection or in the process of becoming protected. The section surrounding the protected areas of Slano Kopovo Special Nature Reserve, Rusanda Nature Park and Okanj Bara Special Nature Reserve with the non-building area of Novi Bečej, Kumane, Melenci, Elemir and Taraš cadastral municipalities, has been chosen for the analysis. The aim of this paper was to assess the influence of specific anthropogenic factors on the elements of an ecological network using the analytical method that can generate the required results in a manner suitable for presentation to various stakeholders. To achieve this aim, the Leopold matrix model, used for assessing anthropogenic influence on the environment, has been chosen. The specificity of this issue of protecting and preserving elements of an ecological network resulted in the need to isolate and evaluate the factors affecting the preservation of habitats and functionality of ecosystems, unlike the concept of Leopold matrix, which treats all factors as equally important in the process of evaluation. Evaluation results indicate significant effects of historical, perennial manner of using the area and other resources in the non-building area.

  9. An ecological perspective on U.S. industrial poultry production: the role of anthropogenic ecosystems on the emergence of drug-resistant bacteria from agricultural environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Meghan F; Price, Lance B; Liu, Cindy Meng-Hsin; Silbergeld, Ellen K

    2011-06-01

    The industrialization of food animal production, specifically the widespread use of antimicrobials, not only increased pressure on microbial populations, but also changed the ecosystems in which antimicrobials and bacteria interact. In this review, we argue that industrial food animal production (IFAP) is appropriately defined as an anthropogenic ecosystem. This paper uses an ecosystem perspective to frame an examination of these changes in the context of U.S. broiler chicken production. This perspective emphasizes multiple modes by which IFAP has altered microbiomes and also suggests a means of generating hypotheses for understanding and predicting the ecological impacts of IFAP in terms of the resistome and the flow of resistance within and between microbiomes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Anthropogenic changes in sodium affect neural and muscle development in butterflies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snell-Rood, Emilie C.; Espeset, Anne; Boser, Christopher J.; White, William A.; Smykalski, Rhea

    2014-01-01

    The development of organisms is changing drastically because of anthropogenic changes in once-limited nutrients. Although the importance of changing macronutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, is well-established, it is less clear how anthropogenic changes in micronutrients will affect organismal development, potentially changing dynamics of selection. We use butterflies as a study system to test whether changes in sodium availability due to road salt runoff have significant effects on the development of sodium-limited traits, such as neural and muscle tissue. We first document how road salt runoff can elevate sodium concentrations in the tissue of some plant groups by 1.5–30 times. Using monarch butterflies reared on roadside- and prairie-collected milkweed, we then show that road salt runoff can result in increased muscle mass (in males) and neural investment (in females). Finally, we use an artificial diet manipulation in cabbage white butterflies to show that variation in sodium chloride per se positively affects male flight muscle and female brain size. Variation in sodium not only has different effects depending on sex, but also can have opposing effects on the same tissue: across both species, males increase investment in flight muscle with increasing sodium, whereas females show the opposite pattern. Taken together, our results show that anthropogenic changes in sodium availability can affect the development of traits in roadside-feeding herbivores. This research suggests that changing micronutrient availability could alter selection on foraging behavior for some roadside-developing invertebrates. PMID:24927579

  11. Anthropogenic changes in sodium affect neural and muscle development in butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snell-Rood, Emilie C; Espeset, Anne; Boser, Christopher J; White, William A; Smykalski, Rhea

    2014-07-15

    The development of organisms is changing drastically because of anthropogenic changes in once-limited nutrients. Although the importance of changing macronutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, is well-established, it is less clear how anthropogenic changes in micronutrients will affect organismal development, potentially changing dynamics of selection. We use butterflies as a study system to test whether changes in sodium availability due to road salt runoff have significant effects on the development of sodium-limited traits, such as neural and muscle tissue. We first document how road salt runoff can elevate sodium concentrations in the tissue of some plant groups by 1.5-30 times. Using monarch butterflies reared on roadside- and prairie-collected milkweed, we then show that road salt runoff can result in increased muscle mass (in males) and neural investment (in females). Finally, we use an artificial diet manipulation in cabbage white butterflies to show that variation in sodium chloride per se positively affects male flight muscle and female brain size. Variation in sodium not only has different effects depending on sex, but also can have opposing effects on the same tissue: across both species, males increase investment in flight muscle with increasing sodium, whereas females show the opposite pattern. Taken together, our results show that anthropogenic changes in sodium availability can affect the development of traits in roadside-feeding herbivores. This research suggests that changing micronutrient availability could alter selection on foraging behavior for some roadside-developing invertebrates.

  12. Anthropogenic landforms of warfare origin and their ecological significance: the Verdun Forest, NE France

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Matos Machado, Rémi; Amat, Jean-Paul; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles; Bétard, François; Bilodeau, Clélia; Jacquemot, Stéphanie; Toumazet, Jean-Pierre

    2017-04-01

    By its unprecedented industrial character, the First World War marked landscapes like no other conflict in the world. As a result of artillery bombardment and building facilities, the relief suffered major disturbances giving rise to millions anthropogenic landforms of warfare origin on the Western front: shell craters, trenches, shelters and gun sites. This landscape made of bumps and holes that dominated the lands of West Flanders and North-eastern France during the four years of war took chaotic aspects on the great battle sites. In some areas, substrate crushing by repeated bombings resulted in a field lowering of several metres. Although these geomorphological legacies of war are still present on these scarred lands, their effects on local environment and on present-day biodiversity patterns are not fully understood. On the battlefield of Verdun, where a huge number and range of conflict-induced landforms may be observed, special attention is being paid to the ecological significance of these anthropogenic landforms in a current landscape matrix dominated by forest. In 2013, an airborne LiDAR mission conducted over the battlefield has brought to light the relief inherited from the fighting that was until now concealed by the Verdun forest planted in the 1930's. Through a digital terrain model (DTM) with centimetre level accuracy, it is now possible to observe the smallest traces of the fighting. A first programmatic mapping work allowed to inventory and to locate these reliefs on the whole 10,000 hectares covered by the DTM. Also, the calculation of their geometry enabled us to quantify the erosion rate due to the military activities on the battlefield. On the basis of these morphometric measurements, a typology was developed to better appreciate the morphological diversity of conflict-induced landforms. The results show that these anthropogenic landforms are generally hollow. Because of this particular morphology, the conflict-induced landforms provide

  13. NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhaofei; Wu, Shengjun; Chen, Jilong; Lü, Mingquan

    2017-01-01

    Natural and social environmental changes in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) have received worldwide attention. Identifying interannual changes in vegetation activities in the TGRR is an important task for assessing the impact these changes have on the local ecosystem. We used long-term (1982-2011) satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and climatic and anthropogenic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in the TGRR, as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), downward radiation (RAD), and anthropogenic activities. At the whole TGRR regional scale, a statistically significant overall uptrend in NDVI variations was observed in 1982-2011. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends split by a breakpoint in 1991: NDVI first sharply increased prior to 1991, and then showed a relatively weak rate of increase after 1991. At the pixel scale, most parts of the TGRR experienced increasing NDVI before the 1990s but different trend change types after the 1990s: trends were positive in forests in the northeastern parts, but negative in farmland in southwest parts of the TGRR. The TEM warming trend was the main climate-related driver of uptrending NDVI variations pre-1990s, and decreasing PRE was the main climate factor (42%) influencing the mid-western farmland areas' NDVI variations post-1990s. We also found that anthropogenic factors such as population density, man-made ecological restoration, and urbanization have notable impacts on the TGRR's NDVI variations. For example, large overall trend slopes in NDVI were more likely to appear in TGRR regions with large fractions of ecological restoration within the last two decades. The findings of this study may help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of NDVI variations in the periods before and during TGDP construction for ongoing ecosystem monitoring and assessment in the

  14. Nuclear Renaissance in an Era of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bird, John [Bruce Power, Box 3000 B06, Tiverton, Ontario N0G 2T0 (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    This paper substantiates the anthropogenic origin of climate change, demonstrates the resulting consequences, and thereby establishes the need for a nuclear renaissance over the next thirty years. First, the mechanisms behind the natural cycles in global warming, specifically, cycles of precession and eccentricity in Earth's orbit, as measured in ice cores, are compared to the mechanisms of anthropogenic warming, revealing the scientific basis for the observed correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature. Second, the resulting climate change is exemplified by key results from experiments performed by the author in the Arctic and at the South Geographic Pole, and the author's experience of Switzerland's costliest natural catastrophe - the flash flood of 2005. Third, although facing barriers such as research and development requirements, political will and public acceptance, the potential for nuclear power to triple to 1,000 GWe by 2050 would mitigate climate change by holding carbon dioxide concentration below 500 ppm, thereby challenging the younger nuclear generation to contribute to the most important issue facing humanity. (authors)

  15. A Database and Meta-Analysis of Ecological Responses to Flow in the South Atlantic Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamay, Ryan A [ORNL; Orth, Dr. Donald J [Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech); Davis, Dr, Mary [Southeastern Aquatic Resources Partnership; Kauffman, John [John Kauffman LLC.

    2013-01-01

    Generalized and quantitative relationships between flow and ecology are pivotal to developing environmental flow standards based on socially acceptable ecological conditions. Informing management at regional scales requires compiling sufficient hydrologic and ecological sources of information, identifying information gaps, and creating a framework for hypothesis development and testing. We compiled studies of empirical and theoretical relationships between flow and ecology in the South Atlantic region (SAR) of the United States to evaluate their utility for the development of environmental flow standards. Using database searches, internet searches, and agency contacts, we gathered 186 sources of information that provided a qualitative or quantitative relationship between flow and ecology within states encompassing the SAR. A total of 109 of the 186 sources had sufficient information to support quantitative analyses. Ecological responses to natural changes in flow magnitude, frequency, and duration were highly variable regardless of the direction and magnitude of changes in flow. In contrast, the majority of ecological responses to anthropogenic-induced flow alterations were negative. Fish consistently showed negative responses to anthropogenic flow alterations whereas other ecological groups showed somewhat variable responses (e.g. macroinvertebrates and riparian vegetation) and even positive responses (e.g. algae). Fish and organic matter had sufficient sample sizes to stratify natural flow-ecology relationships by specific flow categories (e.g. high flow, baseflows) or by region (e.g. coastal plain, uplands). After stratifying relationships, we found that significant correlations existed between changes in natural flow and ecological responses. In addition, a regression tree explained 57% of the variation in fish responses to anthropogenic and natural changes in flow. Because of some ambiguity in interpreting the directionality in ecological responses, we

  16. Vulnerability of Oyster Resource Users to Ecological Change: Case Study from Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries, A.; La Peyre, M.; Hall, S.; Dowty Beech, R.

    2016-02-01

    Knowledge of vulnerability provides the foundation for developing actions that minimize impacts on people while maximizing the sustainability of ecosystem goods and services including fisheries. As a result, it is becoming increasingly important to determine if resource-dependent people are vulnerable to ecological change as anthropogenic and climate-induced stressors affect resources in different ways. In coastal Louisiana, the current era of rapid marsh loss and abrupt environmental variation (e.g., sediment diversions) has the potential to undermine oyster-associated livelihoods for those most vulnerable. To evaluate vulnerability, we examined dimensions of social sensitivity and adaptive capacity using semi-structured interviews with three stakeholder groups in the oyster fishery of Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana. Results indicate that oyster owners/operators are highly dependent, and thus sensitive, to changes in the ecological conditions of the fishery due to high levels of occupational identity; however they are likely adaptable, reflected in their willingness to learn about new practices and evolve over time. In contrast, oyster fishers that do not own any portion of the business in which they operate are bad at coping with change and frequently hold negative or fatalistic views on financial planning. Overall, oyster resource users most vulnerable to ecological change will be those with high levels of stewardship, open-minded values, and a balanced perception of environment, as well as low to moderate levels of personal and financial buffers and trust. These results suggest that resource users with higher sensitivity to change are not necessarily most vulnerable because sensitivity may be offset by adaptive capacity. In other words, while sensitivity may determine the potential impact of a climate- or human-induced ecological change to the oyster fishery, adaptive capacity can be a major influence on what impacts actually eventuate.

  17. Detecting the anthropogenic influences on recent changes in ocean carbon uptake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seferian, Roland; Ribes, Aurelien; Bopp, Laurent

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have modified the rate at which oceans have absorbed atmospheric CO 2 over the last centuries through rising atmospheric CO 2 and modifications in climate. However, there are still missing pieces in our understanding of the recent evolution of air-sea CO 2 exchanges related to the magnitude of their response to anthropogenic forcing versus that controlled by the internal variability. Here, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on oceanic CO 2 uptake between 1960 and 2005, we compare an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations forced by individual drivers to ocean-only model reconstructions. We demonstrate that the evolution of the global oceanic carbon sink over the last decades can be understood without invoking climate change, attributing rising atmospheric CO 2 as prominent driver of the oceanic sink. Nonetheless, at regional scale, the influence of climate change on air-sea CO 2 exchanges seems to emerge from the internal variability within the low-latitude oceans. (authors)

  18. Anthropogenic changes in environmental conditions of phytocoenoses of medium sized-sized Ukrainian river valleys (based on the example of the River Tyasmyn – a tributary of the Dnieper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Lavrov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The problem of anthropogenic degradation of rivers is usually marked by its multi-sectoral and often international character as well by the large number of sources of environmental threat. Therefore, its solution requires a systematic approach based on transparent and coordinated interagency and international cooperation. The River Dnieper inUkrainehas undergone a remarkable transformation as a result of the construction of a cascade of reservoirs. Anthropogenic damage to the plants and soil that cover its basin have caused damage to the functioning of ecological regimes of theDnieper’s tributaries. Small and medium-sized rivers are dying. In this article, attention is paid to a typical middle-sized (164 km river of theDnieperBasin, the Tyasmyn. Its middle and lower parts are located in the overtransformed Irdyn-Tyasmyn valley. During the last glaciation it formed the central part of the right arm of the ancientDnieper. Regulation of the Tyasmyn runoff, pollution, the creation of theKremenchugreservoir on theDnieper, grazing and recreational load have led to the threat of the river degrading. Therefore, the aim of this article is to characterize the structure of the herbaceous vegetation in the central and lower parts of the Tyasmyn valley and assess the level of its dependence on anthropogenic changes in the conditions of the ecotypes. The methods used are: retrospective and system analysis, comparative ecology (ecological profile or transect, botanic methods, phytoindication, the mapping method and mathematical statistics. The features of changes in environmental conditions of ecotypes of the river valley have been shown through systematic, biomorphological, ecomorphic structure of the herbaceous cover, the ratio of ecological groups and changes in types of ecological strategy of species, phytodiversity. We found 89 species of vascular plants. The most diverse families were Asteraceae, Poaceae and Lamiaceae. The biomorphological range of

  19. Ecological responses to recent climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walther, Gian-Reto [Hannover Univ., Inst. of Geobotany, Hannover (Germany); Post, Eric [Pennsylvania State Univ., Dept. of Biology, University Park, PA (United States); Convey, Peter [British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Menzel, Annette [Technical Univ. Munich, Dept. of Ecology, Freising (Germany); Parmesan, Camille [Texas Univ., Patterson Labs., Integrative Biology Dept., Austin, TX (United States); Beebee, Trevor J.C. [Sussex Univ., School of Biological Sciences, Brighton (United Kingdom); Fromentin, Jean-Marc [IFREMER, Centre Halieutique Mediterraneen et Tropical, Sete, 34 (France); Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove [Queensland Univ., Centre for Marine Studies, St Lucia, QLD (Australia); Bairlein, Franz [Institute for Avian Research ' Vogelwarte Helgoland' , Wilhelmshaven (Germany)

    2002-03-28

    There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organisational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible. (Author)

  20. Climate change and nesting behaviour in vertebrates: a review of the ecological threats and potential for adaptive responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainwaring, Mark C; Barber, Iain; Deeming, Denis C; Pike, David A; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Hartley, Ian R

    2017-11-01

    Nest building is a taxonomically widespread and diverse trait that allows animals to alter local environments to create optimal conditions for offspring development. However, there is growing evidence that climate change is adversely affecting nest-building in animals directly, for example via sea-level rises that flood nests, reduced availability of building materials, and suboptimal sex allocation in species exhibiting temperature-dependent sex determination. Climate change is also affecting nesting species indirectly, via range shifts into suboptimal nesting areas, reduced quality of nest-building environments, and changes in interactions with nest predators and parasites. The ability of animals to adapt to sustained and rapid environmental change is crucial for the long-term persistence of many species. Many animals are known to be capable of adjusting nesting behaviour adaptively across environmental gradients and in line with seasonal changes, and this existing plasticity potentially facilitates adaptation to anthropogenic climate change. However, whilst alterations in nesting phenology, site selection and design may facilitate short-term adaptations, the ability of nest-building animals to adapt over longer timescales is likely to be influenced by the heritable basis of such behaviour. We urgently need to understand how the behaviour and ecology of nest-building in animals is affected by climate change, and particularly how altered patterns of nesting behaviour affect individual fitness and population persistence. We begin our review by summarising how predictable variation in environmental conditions influences nest-building animals, before highlighting the ecological threats facing nest-building animals experiencing anthropogenic climate change and examining the potential for changes in nest location and/or design to provide adaptive short- and long-term responses to changing environmental conditions. We end by identifying areas that we believe warrant the

  1. Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers' joint construction of climate perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asplund, Therese

    2016-07-01

    While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change. © The Author(s) 2014.

  2. Ecology for a changing earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, J.H.; Roughgarden, J.

    1990-01-01

    To forecast the ecological impact of global change, research initiatives are needed on the explicit role of humans in ecological systems, and on how ecological processes functioning at different spatial and temporal scales are coupled. Furthermore, to synthesize the results of ecological research for Congress, policymakers, and the general public, a new agency, called the United States Ecological Survey (USES) is urgently required. Also, a national commitment to environmental health, as exemplified by establishing a National Institutes of the Environment (NIE), should be a goal

  3. Soil Landscape Pattern Changes in Response to Rural Anthropogenic Activity across Tiaoxi Watershed, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Rui; Jiang, Diwei; Christakos, George; Fei, Xufeng; Wu, Jiaping

    2016-01-01

    Soil sealing (loss of soil resources due to extensive land covering for the purpose of house building, road construction etc.) and subsequent soil landscape pattern changes constitute typical environmental problems in many places worldwide. Previous studies concentrated on soil sealing in urbanized regions, whereas rural areas have not been given sufficient attention. Accordingly, this paper studies soil landscape pattern dynamics (i.e., landscape pattern changes in response to rural anthropogenic activities) in the Tiaoxi watershed (Zhejiang province, eastern China), in which surface sealing is by far the predominant component of human forcing with respect to environmental change. A novel approach of quantifying the impacts of rural anthropogenic activities on soil resources is presented. Specifically, quantitative relationships were derived between five soil landscape pattern metrics (patch density, edge density, shape index, Shannon’s diversity index and aggregation index) and three rural anthropogenic activity indicators (anthropogenic activity intensity, distance to towns, and distance to roads) at two landscape block scales (3 and 5 km) between 1985 and 2010. The results showed that the Tiaoxi watershed experienced extensive rural settlement expansion and high rates of soil sealing. Soil landscapes became more fragmented, more irregular, more isolated, and less diverse. Relationships between soil landscape pattern changes and rural anthropogenic activities differed with the scale (spatial and temporal) and variable considered. In particular, the anthropogenic activity intensity was found to be the most important indicator explaining social development intensity, whereas the other two proximity indicators had a significant impact at certain temporal interval. In combination with scale effects, spatial dependency (correlation) was shown to play a key role that should be carefully taken into consideration in any relevant environmental study. Overall, the

  4. Rapid Assessment of Anthropogenic Impacts of Exposed Sandy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We applied a rapid assessment methodology to estimate the degree of human impact of exposed sandy beaches in Ghana using ghost crabs as ecological indicators. The use of size ranges of ghost crab burrows and their population density as ecological indicators to assess extent of anthropogenic impacts on beaches ...

  5. Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Erle C

    2011-03-13

    Human populations and their use of land have transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes), causing a variety of novel ecological patterns and processes to emerge. To assess whether human populations and their use of land have directly altered the terrestrial biosphere sufficiently to indicate that the Earth system has entered a new geological epoch, spatially explicit global estimates of human populations and their use of land were analysed across the Holocene for their potential to induce irreversible novel transformation of the terrestrial biosphere. Human alteration of the terrestrial biosphere has been significant for more than 8000 years. However, only in the past century has the majority of the terrestrial biosphere been transformed into intensively used anthromes with predominantly novel anthropogenic ecological processes. At present, even were human populations to decline substantially or use of land become far more efficient, the current global extent, duration, type and intensity of human transformation of ecosystems have already irreversibly altered the terrestrial biosphere at levels sufficient to leave an unambiguous geological record differing substantially from that of the Holocene or any prior epoch. It remains to be seen whether the anthropogenic biosphere will be sustained and continue to evolve.

  6. Economic impacts of marine ecological change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bartelings, Heleen; Börger, Tobias; Bosello, Francesco; Buisman, Erik; Delpiazzo, Elisa; Eboli, Fabio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hamon, Katell G.; Hattam, Caroline; Loureiro, Maria; Nunes, Paulo A.L.D.; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Schasfoort, Femke E.; Simons, Sarah L.; Walker, Adam N.

    2018-01-01

    Marine ecological change is likely to have serious potential economic consequences for coastal economies all over the world. This article reviews the current literature on the economic impacts of marine ecological change, as well as a number of recent contributions to this literature carried out

  7. ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE HUMAN -TRANSFORMED SYSTEMS OF THE IRPIN RIVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Madzhd

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to learn the interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors and their consequences in the system “Natural environment (Irpin river – human-transformed environment (Nyvka river”. Methods: To assess the structural and functional changes of hydroecosystems, transformed under technogenic impact, hydrochemical, toxicological and biological techniques, as well as the methods of mathematical statistics for experimental data processing and summarization of obtained results, were applied. Results: it is proposed to determine the dynamics of the biotic self-regulation mechanism change under impact of the modifying (anthropogenic factors, by the example of the two-component system – “Natural environment (Irpin River – environment, transformed under technogenic impact (Nyvka River, the right-hand tributary of the Irpin River”. It is proposed to extend additionally the opportunities of the ecological assessment due to application of the integrating index – the index of ecological conformity. Discussion: obtained results stipulate necessity of the further investigation of structural and functional patterns of the Irpin River ecosystem in space and time. Assessment of anthropogenic factors impact on hydroecosystem condition will make it possible to correct the nature guard activity concerning the improvement of the fishery object ecological condition and recreation essence of the Irpin River. Integration of the Nyvka and Irpin Rivers into a single system “Natural environment – environment, transformed under technogenic impact” will make it possible to obtain the objective assessment of technogenic changes in hydroecosystems. Implementation of the index of ecological conformity will make it possible to estimate completely the inner processes in the rivers.

  8. Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Case Study Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenbath, Thien-Kim Leckie

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation shows the evolution of five undergraduate students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change throughout a lecture hall course on climate change. This research was informed by conceptual change theory and students' inaccurate ideas of climate change. Subjects represented different levels of climate change understanding at…

  9. World-wide anthropogenic climate changes: facts, uncertainties and open questions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenwiese, C.D.

    1994-01-01

    Various human activities are, without a doubt, leading to a steady increase world-wide in the emissions of trace gases which affect the climate into the atmosphere. As a result, the global climate is also forced to change. The evidence from climate models regarding this is uncertain, however, both with respect to the quantitative aspect and the regional aspect, especially concerning climatic elements apart from temperature. It is therefore important to examine the data of climate history for anthropogenic climate signals. It is difficult, though, to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic climate effects. Despite these uncertainties, however, which result in many questions remaining open, estimations of risk and the principle of responsibility lead to immediate, international climate protection measures being demanded. (orig.) [de

  10. Linking effects of anthropogenic debris to ecological impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Mark Anthony; Underwood, A. J.; Chapman, M. G.; Williams, Rob; Thompson, Richard C.; van Franeker, Jan A.

    2015-01-01

    Accelerated contamination of habitats with debris has caused increased effort to determine ecological impacts. Strikingly, most work on organisms focuses on sublethal responses to plastic debris. This is controversial because (i) researchers have ignored medical insights about the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to disease and mortality, and (ii) debris is considered non-hazardous by policy-makers, possibly because individuals can be injured or removed from populations and assemblages without ecological impacts. We reviewed the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to assemblages and populations. Using plastic, we show microplastics reduce the ‘health’, feeding, growth and survival of ecosystem engineers. Larger debris alters assemblages because fishing-gear and tyres kill animals and damage habitat-forming plants, and because floating bottles facilitate recruitment and survival of novel taxa. Where ecological linkages are not known, we show how to establish hypothetical links by synthesizing studies to assess the likelihood of impacts. We also consider how population models examine ecological linkages and guide management of ecological impacts. We show that by focusing on linkages to ecological impacts rather than the presence of debris and its sublethal impacts, we could reduce threats posed by debris. PMID:25904661

  11. Integrating Social Science into the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network: Social Dimensions of Ecological Change and Ecological Dimensions of Social Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles L. Redman; J. Morgan Grove; Lauren H. Kuby; Lauren H. Kuby

    2004-01-01

    The integration of the social sciences into long-term ecological research is an urgent priority. To address this need, a group of social, earth, and life scientists associated with the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network have articulated a conceptual framework for understanding the human dimensions of ecological change...

  12. Anthropogenic disturbances jeopardize biodiversity conservation within tropical rainforest reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Ortiz-Rodríguez, Iván A; Piñero, Daniel; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Sarukhán, José

    2016-05-10

    Anthropogenic disturbances affecting tropical forest reserves have been documented, but their ecological long-term cumulative effects are poorly understood. Habitat fragmentation and defaunation are two major anthropogenic threats to the integrity of tropical reserves. Based on a long-term (four decades) study, we document how these disturbances synergistically disrupt ecological processes and imperil biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning at Los Tuxtlas, the northernmost tropical rainforest reserve in the Americas. Deforestation around this reserve has reduced the reserve to a medium-sized fragment (640 ha), leading to an increased frequency of canopy-gap formation. In addition, hunting and habitat loss have caused the decline or local extinction of medium and large herbivores. Combining empirical, experimental, and modeling approaches, we support the hypothesis that such disturbances produced a demographic explosion of the long-lived (≈120 y old, maximum height of 7 m) understory palm Astrocaryum mexicanum, whose population has increased from 1,243-4,058 adult individuals per hectare in only 39 y (annual growth rate of ca 3%). Faster gap formation increased understory light availability, enhancing seed production and the growth of immature palms, whereas release from mammalian herbivory and trampling increased survival of seedlings and juveniles. In turn, the palm's demographic explosion was followed by a reduction of tree species diversity, changing forest composition, altering the relative contribution of trees to forest biomass, and disrupting litterfall dynamics. We highlight how indirect anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., palm proliferation) on otherwise protected areas threaten tropical conservation, a phenomenon that is currently eroding the planet's richest repositories of biodiversity.

  13. Changes in anthropogenic carbon storage in the Northeast Pacific in the last decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Sophie N.; Wang, Zhaohui Aleck; Doney, Scott C.; Lawson, Gareth L.; Hoering, Katherine A.

    2016-07-01

    In order to understand the ocean's role as a sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), it is important to quantify changes in the amount of anthropogenic CO2 stored in the ocean interior over time. From August to September 2012, an ocean acidification cruise was conducted along a portion of the P17N transect (50°N 150°W to 33.5°N 135°W) in the Northeast Pacific. These measurements are compared with data from the previous occupation of this transect in 2001 to estimate the change in the anthropogenic CO2 inventory in the Northeast Pacific using an extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) approach. Maximum increases in the surface waters were 11 µmol kg-1 over 11 years near 50°N. Here, the penetration depth of anthropogenic CO2 only reached ˜300 m depth, whereas at 33.5°N, penetration depth reached ˜600 m. The average increase of the depth-integrated anthropogenic carbon inventory was 0.41 ± 0.12 mol m-2 yr-1 across the transect. Lower values down to 0.20 mol m-2 yr-1 were observed in the northern part of the transect near 50°N and increased up to 0.55 mol m-2 yr-1 toward 33.5°N. This increase in anthropogenic carbon in the upper ocean resulted in an average pH decrease of 0.002 ± 0.0003 pH units yr-1 and a 1.8 ± 0.4 m yr-1 shoaling rate of the aragonite saturation horizon. An average increase in apparent oxygen utilization of 13.4 ± 15.5 µmol kg-1 centered on isopycnal surface 26.6 kg m-3 from 2001 to 2012 was also observed.

  14. CLASSIFICATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC TRANSFORMATIONS SOILS URBOECOSYSTEMS OF DNEPROPETROVSK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YAKOVYSHYNA T.F.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Raising of problem. The functioning of the city, as artificially created system of the result of the anthropogenic activity, promotes degradation and, sometimes, destruction of the environment, with change it to the technogenic replacement. First of all suffers the soil, as a basic component of any ecosystem, where the circulation of materials close, because it is a powerful biogeochemical barrier to their migration, able to deposit toxicants a long time through its protective functions. The leading role of the formation of the urban soil plays an anthropogenic factor, which is able to influence directly – the destruction of the soil profile due to construction activity and indirectly – with aerogenic or hydrogenous pollution xenobiotics contained in the emissions and discharges of the industrial enterprises; and it is determined by the type of economic use and history of area developing. The variability of using the urban soil is reflected in the soil profile and contributed to the creation of the organic-mineral layer by the mixing, mound, burial and (or contamination of the different substances on the surface. Therefore, classification of the urban soils by the anthropogenic destruction degree of the soil profile is very important scientific and practical task for the urban ecology to the achievement standards of the ecological safety of the modern city, because the restoring of their protective functions is impossible without knowledge of the morphological structure. Purpose. Classify the anthropogenical soils of city Dnipropetrovsk disturbed by the construction activities by the determining of the morphological characteristics of the soil profile structure with separation of the anthropogenic and technogenic surface formations compared to the zonal soil – ordinery chernozem. Conclusion. Within urboecosystem city Dnipropetrovsk long-term human impact to the zonal soil – chernozem led to its transformation into urbanozem witch

  15. Anthropogenic habitat disturbance and ecological divergence between incipient species of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamdem, Colince; Tene Fossog, Billy; Simard, Frédéric; Etouna, Joachim; Ndo, Cyrille; Kengne, Pierre; Boussès, Philippe; Etoa, François-Xavier; Awono-Ambene, Parfait; Fontenille, Didier; Antonio-Nkondjio, Christophe; Besansky, Nora J; Costantini, Carlo

    2012-01-01

    Anthropogenic habitat disturbance is a prime cause in the current trend of the Earth's reduction in biodiversity. Here we show that the human footprint on the Central African rainforest, which is resulting in deforestation and growth of densely populated urban agglomerates, is associated to ecological divergence and cryptic speciation leading to adaptive radiation within the major malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae. In southern Cameroon, the frequency of two molecular forms--M and S--among which reproductive isolation is strong but still incomplete, was correlated to an index of urbanisation extracted from remotely sensed data, expressed as the proportion of built-up surface in each sampling unit. The two forms markedly segregated along an urbanisation gradient forming a bimodal cline of ∼6-km width: the S form was exclusive to the rural habitat, whereas only the M form was present in the core of densely urbanised settings, co-occurring at times in the same polluted larval habitats of the southern house mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus--a species association that was not historically recorded before. Our results indicate that when humans create novel habitats and ecological heterogeneities, they can provide evolutionary opportunities for rapid adaptive niche shifts associated with lineage divergence, whose consequences upon malaria transmission might be significant.

  16. Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.

  17. Linking effects of anthropogenic debris to ecological impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Mark Anthony; Underwood, A J; Chapman, M G; Williams, Rob; Thompson, Richard C; van Franeker, Jan A

    2015-05-22

    Accelerated contamination of habitats with debris has caused increased effort to determine ecological impacts. Strikingly, most work on organisms focuses on sublethal responses to plastic debris. This is controversial because (i) researchers have ignored medical insights about the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to disease and mortality, and (ii) debris is considered non-hazardous by policy-makers, possibly because individuals can be injured or removed from populations and assemblages without ecological impacts. We reviewed the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to assemblages and populations. Using plastic, we show microplastics reduce the 'health', feeding, growth and survival of ecosystem engineers. Larger debris alters assemblages because fishing-gear and tyres kill animals and damage habitat-forming plants, and because floating bottles facilitate recruitment and survival of novel taxa. Where ecological linkages are not known, we show how to establish hypothetical links by synthesizing studies to assess the likelihood of impacts. We also consider how population models examine ecological linkages and guide management of ecological impacts. We show that by focusing on linkages to ecological impacts rather than the presence of debris and its sublethal impacts, we could reduce threats posed by debris. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  18. Climate change and ecological public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Benny

    2015-02-17

    Climate change has been identified as a serious threat to human health, associated with the sustainability of current practices and lifestyles. Nurses should expand their health promotion role to address current and emerging threats to health from climate change and to address ecological public health. This article briefly outlines climate change and the concept of ecological public health, and discusses a 2012 review of the role of the nurse in health promotion.

  19. Interactive effects of anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change and Nr from anthropogenic activities are causing some of the most rapid changes in biodiversity in recent times. Climate change is causing warming trends that result in poleward and elevational range shiftsof flora and fauna, and changes in phenology, particularly ...

  20. Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, J.; Lopez, A.; Huntingford, C.; Allen, M. R.

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to test the robustness of the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change using four different empirical models that were previously developed to explain the observed global mean temperature changes over the last few decades. These studies postulated that the main drivers of these changes included not only the usual natural forcings, such as solar and volcanic, and anthropogenic forcings, such as greenhouse gases and sulfates, but also other known Earth system oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In this paper, we consider these signals, or forced responses, and test whether or not the anthropogenic signal can be robustly detected under different assumptions for the internal variability of the climate system. We assume that the internal variability of the global mean surface temperature can be described by simple stochastic models that explore a wide range of plausible temporal autocorrelations, ranging from short memory processes exemplified by an AR(1) model to long memory processes, represented by a fractional differenced model. In all instances, we conclude that human-induced changes to atmospheric gas composition is affecting global mean surface temperature changes. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  1. Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, J.

    2013-04-27

    This paper aims to test the robustness of the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change using four different empirical models that were previously developed to explain the observed global mean temperature changes over the last few decades. These studies postulated that the main drivers of these changes included not only the usual natural forcings, such as solar and volcanic, and anthropogenic forcings, such as greenhouse gases and sulfates, but also other known Earth system oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In this paper, we consider these signals, or forced responses, and test whether or not the anthropogenic signal can be robustly detected under different assumptions for the internal variability of the climate system. We assume that the internal variability of the global mean surface temperature can be described by simple stochastic models that explore a wide range of plausible temporal autocorrelations, ranging from short memory processes exemplified by an AR(1) model to long memory processes, represented by a fractional differenced model. In all instances, we conclude that human-induced changes to atmospheric gas composition is affecting global mean surface temperature changes. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  2. Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

    2014-06-01

    When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Enlightening Butterfly Conservation Efforts: The Importance of Natural Lighting for Butterfly Behavioral Ecology and Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Light is arguably the most important abiotic factor for living organisms. Organisms evolved under specific lighting conditions and their behavior, physiology, and ecology are inexorably linked to light. Understanding light effects on biology could not be more important as present anthropogenic effects are greatly changing the light environments in which animals exist. The two biggest anthropogenic contributors changing light environments are: (1) anthropogenic lighting at night (i.e., light pollution); and (2) deforestation and the built environment. I highlight light importance for butterfly behavior, physiology, and ecology and stress the importance of including light as a conservation factor for conserving butterfly biodiversity. This review focuses on four parts: (1) Introducing the nature and extent of light. (2) Visual and non-visual light reception in butterflies. (3) Implications of unnatural lighting for butterflies across several different behavioral and ecological contexts. (4). Future directions for quantifying the threat of unnatural lighting on butterflies and simple approaches to mitigate unnatural light impacts on butterflies. I urge future research to include light as a factor and end with the hopeful thought that controlling many unnatural light conditions is simply done by flipping a switch. PMID:29439549

  4. Enlightening Butterfly Conservation Efforts: The Importance of Natural Lighting for Butterfly Behavioral Ecology and Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett M Seymoure

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Light is arguably the most important abiotic factor for living organisms. Organisms evolved under specific lighting conditions and their behavior, physiology, and ecology are inexorably linked to light. Understanding light effects on biology could not be more important as present anthropogenic effects are greatly changing the light environments in which animals exist. The two biggest anthropogenic contributors changing light environments are: (1 anthropogenic lighting at night (i.e., light pollution; and (2 deforestation and the built environment. I highlight light importance for butterfly behavior, physiology, and ecology and stress the importance of including light as a conservation factor for conserving butterfly biodiversity. This review focuses on four parts: (1 Introducing the nature and extent of light. (2 Visual and non-visual light reception in butterflies. (3 Implications of unnatural lighting for butterflies across several different behavioral and ecological contexts. (4. Future directions for quantifying the threat of unnatural lighting on butterflies and simple approaches to mitigate unnatural light impacts on butterflies. I urge future research to include light as a factor and end with the hopeful thought that controlling many unnatural light conditions is simply done by flipping a switch.

  5. Preface to: Indian Ocean biogeochemical processes and ecological variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Hood, R.R.; Naqvi, S.W.A.; Wiggert, J.D.

    monsoonal in fluence. The biogeochemical and ecological impacts of this complex physical forcing are not yet fully understood. The Indian Ocean is truly one of the last great frontiers of ocea- nographic research. In addition, it appears... to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, yet it has been more than a decade since the last coordinated international study of biogeochemical and ecological proc esses was undertaken in this region. To obtain a better un...

  6. Ecological consequences of anthropogenic pressure in Wari-Maro Forest Reserve (Benin, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aubin Guénolé Amagnide

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study assessed ecological consequences of anthropogenic pressure on Wari-Maro Forest Reserve (WMFR. The dynamics of forest cover has been assessed using a diachronic analysis of land cover maps from the Landsat satellite images of 1986, 1995 and 2006. Structural patterns of the forest has been described using forest inventory data with twenty five 1ha plots having two 50 m x 30 m plots set up inside and positioned at the opposite corners of the leading diagonal within each 1 ha plot. Established plots allowed identifying the most targeted species in illegal logging. Plots of 0.15 ha established inside each 1 ha plot helped assessing the volume of trees from which we derived carbon stock and carbon loss using conversion and expansion factors. For the two periods 1986 to 1995 and 1995 to 2006, there was a decline in forest cover which slowed down in the second decade (0.196 %.year-1 and 0.083 %.year-1 respectively. The two vegetation types of the WMFR were mainly distinguished by Lorey's mean height (12.81 m in woodland and 12.44 m in tree-savannah. Top five targeted species in illegal logging activities were: Pterocarpus erinaceus Poir., Afzelia africana Sm., Isoberlinia spp., Anogeissus leiocarpa Guill. and Daniellia oliveri (Rolfe Hutch. & Dalziel. Results also showed mean values of carbon stock and carbon losses for the whole forest of 147.84 tons C.ha-1 and 17.57 tons C.ha-1 respectively and did not depend on vegetation type. Results from this study suggest that management strategies should focus on selectively logged species. Monitoring should also be enhanced to ensure conservation of resources of the reserve which are at high risks of extinction due to selective logging rates. Keywords: anthropogenic pressure, forest cover, structure, carbon stock, Wari-Maro forest reserve, Benin.

  7. What is dental ecology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuozzo, Frank P; Sauther, Michelle L

    2012-06-01

    Teeth have long been used as indicators of primate ecology. Early work focused on the links between dental morphology, diet, and behavior, with more recent years emphasizing dental wear, microstructure, development, and biogeochemistry, to understand primate ecology. Our study of Lemur catta at the Beza Mahafaly Special Reserve, Madagascar, has revealed an unusual pattern of severe tooth wear and frequent tooth loss, primarily the result of consuming a fallback food for which these primates are not dentally adapted. Interpreting these data was only possible by combining our areas of expertise (dental anatomy [FC] and primate ecology [MS]). By integrating theoretical, methodological, and applied aspects of both areas of research, we adopted the term "dental ecology"-defined as the broad study of how teeth respond to the environment. Specifically, we view dental ecology as an interpretive framework using teeth as a vehicle for understanding an organism's ecology, which builds upon earlier work, but creates a new synthesis of anatomy and ecology that is only possible with detailed knowledge of living primates. This framework includes (1) identifying patterns of dental pathology and tooth use-wear, within the context of feeding ecology, behavior, habitat variation, and anthropogenic change, (2) assessing ways in which dental development and biogeochemical signals can reflect habitat, environmental change and/or stress, and (3) how dental microstructure and macro-morphology are adapted to, and reflect feeding ecology. Here we define dental ecology, provide a short summary of the development of this perspective, and place our new work into this context. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittig, Rüdiger; König, Konstantin; Schmidt, Marco; Szarzynski, Jörg

    2007-05-01

    During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the

  9. [Dynamic changes of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Fujian Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Boqi; Wang, Yixiang; Huang, Yibin; Ying, Zhaoyang; Huang, Qinlou

    2006-11-01

    The analysis on the dynamic changes of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Fujian Province showed that in 1999-2003, the ecological footprint per capita in the Province increased from 1.428 hm2 to 1.658 hm2, while the ecological capacity per capita decreased from 0.683 hm2 to 0.607 hm2, with an increased ecological deficit year after year. The contradiction between the ecological footprint and ecological capacity pricked up gradually, and the ecological environment was at risk. There existed a severe imbalance in the supply and demand of ecological footprint per capita. The main body of the demands was grassland and fossil fuel, accouting for 55.74% - 63.43% of the total, while their supply only occupied 0.77% - 0.82% and next to nothing of the ecological capacity per capita, respectively. As a whole, the ecological footprint per ten thousand yuan GDP declined in the five years, indicating that the resources use efficiency in the Province was improved gradually. Based on the analysis of the present situation of the economic development and resources distribution in the Province, the strategies on reducing ecological deficit were put forward.

  10. Timing anthropogenic stressors to mitigate their impact on marine ecosystem resilience

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Paul Pao-Yen; Mengersen, Kerrie; McMahon, Kathryn; Kendrick, Gary A.; Chartrand, Kathryn; York, Paul H.; Rasheed, Michael A.; Caley, M. Julian

    2017-01-01

    Better mitigation of anthropogenic stressors on marine ecosystems is urgently needed to address increasing biodiversity losses worldwide. We explore opportunities for stressor mitigation using whole-of-systems modelling of ecological resilience, accounting for complex interactions between stressors, their timing and duration, background environmental conditions and biological processes. We then search for ecological windows, times when stressors minimally impact ecological resilience, defined...

  11. Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

    2010-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

  12. Anthropogenic Changes in Mid-latitude Storm and Blocking Activities from Observations and Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.

    2017-12-01

    Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change can be most readily detected in the high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere, where temperature has been rising faster than the rest of the globe and sea ice cover has shrunk dramatically over recent decades. Reducing the meridional temperature gradient, this amplified warming over the high latitudes influences weather in the middle latitudes by modulating the jet stream, storms, and atmospheric blocking activities. Whether observational records have revealed significant changes in mid-latitude storms and blocking activities, however, has remained a subject of much debate. Buried deep in strong year-to-year variations, the long-term dynamic responses of the atmosphere are more difficult to identify, compared with its thermodynamic responses. Variabilities of decadal and longer timescales further obscure any trends diagnosed from satellite observations, which are often shorter than 40 years. Here, new metrics reflecting storm and blocking activities are developed using surface air temperature and pressure records, and their variations and long-term trends are examined. This approach gives an inkling of the changes in storm and blocking activities since the Industrial Revolution in regions with abundant long-term observational records, e.g. Europe and North America. The relationship between Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and variations in storm and blocking activities across the Atlantic is also scrutinized. The connection between observed centennial trends and anthropogenic forcings is investigated using a hierarchy of numerical tools, from highly idealized to fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Pre-industrial control simulations and a set of large ensemble simulations forced by increased CO2 are analyzed to evaluate the range of natural variabilities, which paves the way to singling out significant anthropogenic changes from observational records, as well as predicting future changes in mid-latitude storm and

  13. Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Han-Li; Marsh, Daniel R.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Qian, Liying; Vitt, Francis M.

    2018-02-01

    We simulated anthropogenic global change through the entire atmosphere, including the thermosphere and ionosphere, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended. The basic result was that even as the lower atmosphere gradually warms, the upper atmosphere rapidly cools. The simulations employed constant low solar activity conditions, to remove the effects of variable solar and geomagnetic activity. Global mean annual mean temperature increased at a rate of +0.2 K/decade at the surface and +0.4 K/decade in the upper troposphere but decreased by about -1 K/decade in the stratosphere-mesosphere and -2.8 K/decade in the thermosphere. Near the mesopause, temperature decreases were small compared to the interannual variation, so trends in that region are uncertain. Results were similar to previous modeling confined to specific atmospheric levels and compared favorably with available measurements. These simulations demonstrate the ability of a single comprehensive numerical model to characterize global change throughout the atmosphere.

  14. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.

  15. The importance of invertebrates when considering the impacts of anthropogenic noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morley, Erica L; Jones, Gareth; Radford, Andrew N

    2014-02-07

    Anthropogenic noise is now recognized as a major global pollutant. Rapidly burgeoning research has identified impacts on individual behaviour and physiology through to community disruption. To date, however, there has been an almost exclusive focus on vertebrates. Not only does their central role in food webs and in fulfilling ecosystem services make imperative our understanding of how invertebrates are impacted by all aspects of environmental change, but also many of their inherent characteristics provide opportunities to overcome common issues with the current anthropogenic noise literature. Here, we begin by explaining why invertebrates are likely to be affected by anthropogenic noise, briefly reviewing their capacity for hearing and providing evidence that they are capable of evolutionary adaptation and behavioural plasticity in response to natural noise sources. We then discuss the importance of quantifying accurately and fully both auditory ability and noise content, emphasizing considerations of direct relevance to how invertebrates detect sounds. We showcase how studying invertebrates can help with the behavioural bias in the literature, the difficulties in drawing strong, ecologically valid conclusions and the need for studies on fitness impacts. Finally, we suggest avenues of future research using invertebrates that would advance our understanding of the impact of anthropogenic noise.

  16. The Chukchi Sea zoobenthos: contemporary conditions and trends in anthropogenic influence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirievskaya Dubrava

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The Chukchi Sea is a key region where rapid changes of the Arctic environment have been observed recently. Benthos of the Chukchi Sea is a sensitive indicator of these changes. In addition, the benthos can be used as an indicator of the anthropogenic load on the marine environment. A lot of researches have been conducted in the different parts of the Chukchi Sea. In this paper we summarized all the data collected for the last 30 years to evaluate contemporary conditions of the Chukchi Sea benthos as well as to discuss a potential response of the benthic ecosystem to the anthropogenic load. The Chukchi Sea zoobenthos is characterized by relatively high biodiversity compared to the seas of the western Arctic Ocean. The spatial distribution of zoobenthos is non-uniform. It is caused by a lot of factors: depth, bottom and sediment temperature, geochemical structure of the sediments, hydrodynamics, etc. Present environmental conditions of the Chukchi Sea biota can be considered to be close to the average long-term norms. By the reason of climate change scientists started to observe northing displacement of subarctic and temperate species of the benthic ecosystem. The Chukchi Sea is still included into the area with low anthropogenic pressure. The main potential threat for the Chukchi sea benthos results from continued oil and gas exploration and sea transport. For example, benthos around oil-wells (the Burger and the Klondike contains pollutants at a high concentration. The risk of rising anthropogenic load on the Chukchi Sea ecosystem poses the problem to additionally identify vulnerable areas of increased ecological significance for later receiving conservation status.

  17. Surf zone fish diet as an indicator of environmental and anthropogenic influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Leonardo Lopes; Zalmon, Ilana Rosental

    2017-10-01

    Changes in species' abundance have been used as indicators of environmental and anthropogenic disturbances. However, sublethal, e.g., diet, changes should be detected before some alterations in the composition and structure of fish assemblages occur as a result of ecological negative impacts. The objective of the present study was to assess possible changes in surf zone fish diet in response to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances. Surf zone fish were sampled and their stomach contents were analyzed on two sandy beaches under different levels of human pressure in Southeastern Brazil. Habitat variables related to seasonality, food availability, anthropogenic disturbance, upwelling and river influence were measured as follows: (1) wave height; (2) water temperature; (3) intertidal macroinvertebrates abundance; (4) solid waste amount; (5) salinity; (6) particulate organic carbon (POC) and (7) chlorophyll a (Chl a). Our results showed the influence of seasonality, prey abundance and hydrodynamics in prey selection, and diet overlap between typical surf zone residents. A literature search was also performed and it shows that insects and Emerita brasiliensis eggs, which were the main food item consumed by some surf zone fish at urbanized Brazilian beaches, are unusual worldwide. Furthermore, solid waste was related to high consumption of insects by pompanos fish in urbanized areas, suggesting that this fish diet could be a sublethal indicator of human impact on sandy beaches.

  18. Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul John Beggs

    Full Text Available The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.

  19. Ecological, biogeochemical and salinity changes in coastal lakes and wetlands over the last 200 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Lucy; Holmes, Jonathan; Horne, David

    2016-04-01

    Shallow lakes provide extensive ecosystem services and are ecologically important aquatic resources supporting a diverse flora and fauna. In marginal-marine areas, where such lakes are subjected to the multiple pressures of coastal erosion, sea level rise, increasing sea surface temperature and increasing frequency and intensity of storm surges, environments are complex and unstable. They are characterised by physico-chemical variations due to climatic (precipitation/evaporation cycles) and dynamic factors (tides, currents, freshwater drainage and sea level changes). Combined with human activity in the catchment these processes can alter the salinity, habitat and ecology of coastal fresh- to brackish water ecosystems. In this study the chemical and biological stability of coastal lakes forming the Upper Thurne catchment in the NE of the Norfolk Broads, East Anglia, UK are seriously threatened by long-term changes in salinity resulting from storm surges, complex hydrogeology and anthropogenic activity in the catchment. Future management decisions depend on a sound understanding of the potential ecological impacts, but such understanding is limited by short-term observations and measurements. This research uses palaeolimnological approaches, which can be validated and calibrated with historical records, to reconstruct changes in the aquatic environment on a longer time scale than can be achieved by observations alone. Here, salinity is quantitatively reconstructed using the trace-element geochemistry (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) of low Mg-calcite shells of Ostracoda (microscopic bivalved crustaceans) and macrophyte and macroinvertebrate macrofossil remains are used as a proxy to assess ecological change in response to variations in salinity. δ13C values of Cladocera (which are potentially outcompeted by the mysid Neomysis integer with increasing salinity and eutrophication) can be used to reconstruct carbon cycling and energy pathways in lake food webs, which alongside

  20. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  1. University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

    2017-01-01

    This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching.…

  2. Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato

    2008-02-05

    The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO(2) and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO(2) but from the combination of CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years.

  3. Understanding the Impact of Anthropogenic and Environmental Changes on Dengue Fever Cases in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Serman, E. A.; Couret, J.; Puggioni, G.; Ginsberg, H. S.

    2016-12-01

    Worldwide, there are an estimated 50-100 million cases of dengue fever each year, roughly 30 times the number of cases as 50 years ago. Dengue was introduced to Puerto Rico (PR) in 1963 and it has experienced epidemic activity ever since. There have been 4 large epidemics since 1990, the most recent in 2010 where almost 27,000 cases were reported. Vaccine development remains in the testing stages, and years away from mass distribution. Effective control thus depends on our understanding of the complex relationships between environmental and anthropogenic factors, mosquito vector ecology, and disease epidemiology. Dengue virus is primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which also carry the Zika virus, and humans in urban environments are their preferred hosts. The purpose of our analysis is to identify trends between anthropogenic and environmental changes and dengue fever cases in PR over the past 15 years. Data on housing and population density, percent impervious surface, and percent tree canopy at the municipality level were procured from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (MLRC) project, respectively. Land cover data from the National Land Cover Database, created by USGS and NOAA, as well as environmental data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), were also used. Smaller land cover and green space analysis studies have been performed for PR, but this is the first study to consider the island as a whole, and in six distinct regions, with regards to increases in dengue fever cases. The results from this study can be used to understand the effects of urbanization and climate change on vector-borne disease transmission in PR and to project the impact of growing sub-urban and urban areas on dengue cases in coming years. Our results could also be used to assess Dengue and Zika transmission in growing megacites of the world, where urban slums provide a favorable habitat for Ae. aegypti and foster

  4. Monitoring Forest Change in Landscapes Under-Going Rapid Energy Development: Challenges and New Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul D. Pickell

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The accelerated development of energy resources around the world has substantially increased forest change related to oil and gas activities. In some cases, oil and gas activities are the primary catalyst of land-use change in forested landscapes. We discuss the challenges associated with characterizing ecological change related to energy resource development using North America as an exemplar. We synthesize the major impacts of energy development to forested ecosystems and offer new perspectives on how to detect and monitor anthropogenic disturbance during the Anthropocene. The disturbance of North American forests for energy development has resulted in persistent linear corridors, suppression of historical disturbance regimes, novel ecosystems, and the eradication of ecological memory. Characterizing anthropogenic disturbances using conventional patch-based disturbance measures will tend to underestimate the ecological impacts of energy development. Suitable indicators of anthropogenic impacts in forests should be derived from the integration of multi-scalar Earth observations. Relating these indicators to ecosystem condition will be a capstone in the progress toward monitoring forest change in landscapes undergoing rapid energy development.

  5. Multidecadal change in streamflow associated with anthropogenic disturbances in the tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

    2015-10-01

    Andean headwater catchments are an important source of freshwater for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes in these catchments. In this paper, we assess change in streamflow based on long time series of hydrometeorological data (1974-2008) and land cover reconstructions (1963-2009) in the Pangor catchment (282 km2) located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished during the period 1963-2009: (1) expansion of agricultural land by an area equal to 14 % of the catchment area (or 39 km2) in 46 years' time, (2) deforestation of native forests by 11 % (or -31 km2) corresponding to a mean rate of 67 ha yr-1, and (3) afforestation with exotic species in recent years by about 5 % (or 15 km2). Over the time period 1963-2009, about 50 % of the 64 km2 of native forests was cleared and converted to agricultural land. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow, which exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term change in precipitation but very likely result from anthropogenic disturbances associated with land cover change.

  6. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  7. Environmental Sustainability of the Lopota River in Eastern Georgia against the Background of the Growing Anthropogenic Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tea T. Mchedluri

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available We studied the ecological state of the Lopota River in Eastern Georgia. The study showed that the results of microbiological and chemical contamination do not experience significant changes, and mainly are within the acceptable range of concentration, although a pronounced difference is observed among individual performances over the entire flow. An increase in the anthropogenic pollution of the river is observed in summer time. Downstream the Alazani River the concentration of major cations ((K+,Na+,Mg2+,Ca2+, anions (SO42-, Cl- HCO3-, CO32- and biogenic elements (NO2, NO3-, NH4+, PO43- is increasing. As a result, the Lopota River is subjected to anthropogenic influence and faecal contamination. However, despite this, the ecological state of the river is satisfactory, due the turbulent flow of the river and good aeration. In addition, the increase in turbidity creates favourable conditions for sorption water purification. All this contributes to self-purification capacity of the river.

  8. Some directions in ecological theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, Bruce E

    2015-12-01

    The role of theory within ecology has changed dramatically in recent decades. Once primarily a source of qualitative conceptual framing, ecological theories and models are now often used to develop quantitative explanations of empirical patterns and to project future dynamics of specific ecological systems. In this essay, I recount my own experience of this transformation, in which accelerating computing power and the widespread incorporation of stochastic processes into ecological theory combined to create some novel integration of mathematical and statistical models. This stronger integration drives theory towards incorporating more biological realism, and I explore ways in which we can grapple with that realism to generate new general theoretical insights. This enhanced realism, in turn, may lead to frameworks for projecting ecological responses to anthropogenic change, which is, arguably, the central challenge for 21st-century ecology. In an era of big data and synthesis, ecologists are increasingly seeking to infer causality from observational data; but conventional biometry provides few tools for this project. This is a realm where theorists can and should play an important role, and I close by pointing towards some analytical and philosophical approaches developed in our sister discipline of economics that address this very problem. While I make no grand prognostications about the likely discoveries of ecological theory over the coming century, you will find in this essay a scattering of more or less far-fetched ideas that I, at least, think are interesting and (possibly) fruitful directions for our field.

  9. Change in diurnal variations of meteorological variables induced by anthropogenic aerosols over the North China Plain in summer 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yi; Zhang, Meigen; Liu, Xiaohong; Wang, Lili

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the impacts of all anthropogenic aerosols and anthropogenic black carbon (BC) on the diurnal variations of meteorological variables in the atmospheric boundary layer over the North China Plain (NCP) during June to August 2008, using a coupled meteorology and chemistry model (WRF-Chem). The results of the ensemble numerical experiments show that surface air temperature decreases by about 0.6 to 1.2 K with the maximum decrease over the Beijing urban area and the southern part of Hebei province, and the surface relative humidity (RH) increases by 2-4 % owing to all anthropogenic aerosols. On the contrary, anthropogenic BC induces a small change of temperature and RH at surface. Averaged for Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei province (BTH region) and High Particle Concentration (HPC) periods when PM2.5 surface concentration is more than 60 μg m-3 and daily AOD is more than 0.9, all anthropogenic aerosols decrease air temperature under 850 hPa and increase it between 500 and 850 hPa, while anthropogenic BC increases it for whole atmosphere. The maximum changes occur at 08:00-20:00 (local time). Aerosol-induced surface energy and diabatic heating change leads to a cooling at the surface and in the lower atmosphere and a warming in the middle troposphere at 08:00-17:00, with reversed effects at 20:00-05:00. BC cools the atmosphere at the surface and warms the atmosphere above for the whole day. As a result, the equivalent potential temperature profile change shows that the lower atmosphere is more stable at 08:00 and 14:00. All anthropogenic aerosols decrease the surface wind speed by 20-60 %, while anthropogenic BC decreases the wind speed by 10-40 % over the NCP with the maximum decrease at 08:00. The aerosol-induced stabilization of the lower atmosphere favors the accumulation of air pollutants and thus contributes to deterioration of visibility and fog-haze events.

  10. The ecological impacts of marine debris

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rochman, Chelsea M.; Browne, Mark Anthony; Underwood, A.J.; Franeker, Van Jan A.; Thompson, Richard C.; Amaral-Zettler, Linda A.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic debris contaminates marine habitats globally, leading to several perceived ecological impacts. Here, we critically and systematically review the literature regarding impacts of debris from several scientific fields to understand the weight of evidence regarding the ecological

  11. Bayesian change-point analyses in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian Bekcage; Lawrence Joseph; Patrick Belisle; David B. Wolfson; William J. Platt

    2007-01-01

    Ecological and biological processes can change from one state to another once a threshold has been crossed in space or time. Threshold responses to incremental changes in underlying variables can characterize diverse processes from climate change to the desertification of arid lands from overgrazing.

  12. Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midgley, Guy F.; Bond, William J.

    2015-09-01

    Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.

  13. Functional changes in littoral macroinvertebrate communities in response to watershed-level anthropogenic stress.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katya E Kovalenko

    Full Text Available Watershed-scale anthropogenic stressors have profound effects on aquatic communities. Although several functional traits of stream macroinvertebrates change predictably in response to land development and urbanization, little is known about macroinvertebrate functional responses in lakes. We assessed functional community structure, functional diversity (Rao's quadratic entropy and voltinism in macroinvertebrate communities sampled across the full gradient of anthropogenic stress in Laurentian Great Lakes coastal wetlands. Functional diversity and voltinism significantly decreased with increasing development, whereas agriculture had smaller or non-significant effects. Functional community structure was affected by watershed-scale development, as demonstrated by an ordination analysis followed by regression. Because functional community structure affects energy flow and ecosystem function, and functional diversity is known to have important implications for ecosystem resilience to further environmental change, these results highlight the necessity of finding ways to remediate or at least ameliorate these effects.

  14. Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Naomi M; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J W; Erwin, Terry L; Feldpausch, Ted R; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R

    2016-01-19

    Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

  15. Anthropogenic Climate Change in Undergraduate Marine and Environmental Science Programs in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlietstra, Lucy S.; Mrakovcich, Karina L.; Futch, Victoria C.; Stutzman, Brooke S.

    2016-01-01

    To develop a context for program-level design decisions pertaining to anthropogenic climate change, the authors studied the prevalence of courses focused on human-induced climate change in undergraduate marine science and environmental science degree programs in the United States. Of the 86 institutions and 125 programs the authors examined, 37%…

  16. Simple but accurate GCM-free approach for quantifying anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.

    2014-12-01

    We are so used to analysing the climate with the help of giant computer models (GCM's) that it is easy to get the impression that they are indispensable. Yet anthropogenic warming is so large (roughly 0.9oC) that it turns out that it is straightforward to quantify it with more empirically based methodologies that can be readily understood by the layperson. The key is to use the CO2 forcing as a linear surrogate for all the anthropogenic effects from 1880 to the present (implicitly including all effects due to Greenhouse Gases, aerosols and land use changes). To a good approximation, double the economic activity, double the effects. The relationship between the forcing and global mean temperature is extremely linear as can be seen graphically and understood without fancy statistics, [Lovejoy, 2014a] (see the attached figure and http://www.physics.mcgill.ca/~gang/Lovejoy.htm). To an excellent approximation, the deviations from the linear forcing - temperature relation can be interpreted as the natural variability. For example, this direct - yet accurate approach makes it graphically obvious that the "pause" or "hiatus" in the warming since 1998 is simply a natural cooling event that has roughly offset the anthropogenic warming [Lovejoy, 2014b]. Rather than trying to prove that the warming is anthropogenic, with a little extra work (and some nonlinear geophysics theory and pre-industrial multiproxies) we can disprove the competing theory that it is natural. This approach leads to the estimate that the probability of the industrial scale warming being a giant natural fluctuation is ≈0.1%: it can be dismissed. This destroys the last climate skeptic argument - that the models are wrong and the warming is natural. It finally allows for a closure of the debate. In this talk we argue that this new, direct, simple, intuitive approach provides an indispensable tool for communicating - and convincing - the public of both the reality and the amplitude of anthropogenic warming

  17. Impact of anthropogenic activities on the dissemination of antibiotic resistance across ecological boundaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Vijay; Cytryn, Eddie

    2017-02-28

    Antibiotics are considered to be one of the major medical breakthroughs in history. Nonetheless, over the past four decades, antibiotic resistance has reached alarming levels worldwide and this trend is expected to continue to increase, leading some experts to forecast the coming of a 'post-antibiotic' era. Although antibiotic resistance in pathogens is traditionally linked to clinical environments, there is a rising concern that the global propagation of antibiotic resistance is also associated with environmental reservoirs that are linked to anthropogenic activities such as animal husbandry, agronomic practices and wastewater treatment. It is hypothesized that the emergence and dissemination of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) and antibiotic-resistant genes (ARGs) within and between environmental microbial communities can ultimately contribute to the acquisition of antibiotic resistance in human pathogens. Nonetheless, the scope of this phenomenon is not clear due to the complexity of microbial communities in the environment and methodological constraints that limit comprehensive in situ evaluation of microbial genomes. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge regarding antibiotic resistance in non-clinical environments, specifically focusing on the dissemination of antibiotic resistance across ecological boundaries and the contribution of this phenomenon to global antibiotic resistance. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Portland Press Limited on behalf of the Biochemical Society.

  18. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, B.; Liou, K. N.; He, C.; Lee, W. L.; Gu, Y.; Li, Q.; Leung, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols affect regional climate significantly through radiative (direct and semi-direct) and indirect effects, but the magnitude of these effects over megacities are subject to large uncertainty. In this study, we evaluated the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China using the online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry Model (WRF/Chem) with the Fu-Liou-Gu radiation scheme and a spatial resolution of 4km. We further updated this radiation scheme with a geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) approach for the computation of light absorption and scattering by black carbon (BC) particles in which aggregation shape and internal mixing properties are accounted for. In addition, we incorporated in WRF/Chem a 3D radiative transfer parameterization in conjunction with high-resolution digital data for city buildings and landscape to improve the simulation of boundary-layer, surface solar fluxes and associated sensible/latent heat fluxes. Preliminary simulated meteorological parameters, fine particles (PM2.5) and their chemical components agree well with observational data in terms of both magnitude and spatio-temporal variations. The effects of anthropogenic aerosols, including BC, on radiative forcing, surface temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud water path, and precipitation are quantified on the basis of simulation results. With several preliminary sensitivity runs, we found that meteorological parameters and aerosol radiative effects simulated with the incorporation of improved BC absorption and 3-D radiation parameterizations deviate substantially from simulation results using the conventional homogeneous/core-shell configuration for BC and the plane-parallel model for radiative transfer. Understanding of the aerosol effects on regional climate change over megacities must consider the complex shape and mixing state of aerosol aggregates and 3D radiative transfer effects over city landscape.

  19. Real-time observational evidence of changing Asian dust morphology with the mixing of heavy anthropogenic pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, X.; Uno, I.; Wang, Z.; Nishizawa, T.; Sugimoto, N.; Yamamoto, S.; Kobayashi, H.; Sun, Y.; Fu, P.; Tang, X.; Wang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Natural mineral dust and heavy anthropogenic pollution and its complex interactions cause significant environmental problems in East Asia. Due to restrictions of observing technique, real-time morphological change in Asian dust particles owing to coating process of anthropogenic pollutants is still statistically unclear. Here, we first used a newly developed, single-particle polarization detector and quantitatively investigate the evolution of the polarization property of backscattering light reflected from dust particle as they were mixing with anthropogenic pollutants in North China. The decrease in observed depolarization ratio is mainly attributed to the decrease of aspect ratio of the dust particles as a result of continuous coating processes. Hygroscopic growth of Calcium nitrate (Ca(NO3)2) on the surface of the dust particles played a vital role, particularly when they are stagnant in the polluted region with high RH conditions. Reliable statistics highlight the significant importance of internally mixed, `quasi-spherical' Asian dust particles, which markedly act as cloud condensation nuclei and exert regional climate change.

  20. Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Fangxing; Dong, Buwen; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan

    2018-02-01

    Since the mid-1990s precipitation trends over eastern China display a dipole pattern, characterized by positive anomalies in the south and negative anomalies in the north, named as the Southern-Flood-Northern-Drought (SFND) pattern. This work investigates the drivers of decadal changes of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the dynamical mechanisms involved, by using a coupled climate model (specifically an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model) forced by changes in (1) anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), (2) anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and (3) the combined effects of both GHG and AA (All Forcing) between two periods across the mid-1990s. The model experiment forced by changes in All Forcing shows a dipole pattern of response in precipitation over China that is similar to the observed SFND pattern across the mid-1990s, which suggests that anthropogenic forcing changes played an important role in the observed decadal changes. Furthermore, the experiments with separate forcings indicate that GHG and AA forcing dominate different parts of the SFND pattern. In particular, changes in GHG increase precipitation over southern China, whilst changes in AA dominate in the drought conditions over northern China. Increases in GHG cause increased moisture transport convergence over eastern China, which leads to increased precipitation. The AA forcing changes weaken the EASM, which lead to divergent wind anomalies over northern China and reduced precipitation.

  1. Between Design and Ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørn, Mona Chor

    such vegetation, based on concepts and theories in plant community ecology. If these communities are based on local forbs there is a continuum in anthropogenic intervention from designed and intensively maintained to semi-natural herbaceous vegetation. Results from a large field experiment show that, after three...... colonised by grasses and eventually woody species. This thesis adds useful basic knowledge in plant community ecology and species-specific growth, which are relevant to research and planning in landscape architecture and ecology....

  2. Impact of anthropogenic and natural environmental changes on Echinococcus transmission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the People's Republic of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yu Rong; Clements, Archie C A; Gray, Darren J; Atkinson, Jo-An M; Williams, Gail M; Barnes, Tamsin S; McManus, Donald P

    2012-07-24

    Echinococcus transmission is known to be affected by various environmental factors, which may be modified by human influence or natural events including global warming. Considerable population growth in the last fifty years in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), the People's Republic of China (PRC), has led to dramatic increases in deforestation and modified agricultural practices. In turn, this has resulted in many changes in the habitats for the definitive and intermediate hosts of both Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, which have increased the risks for transmission of both parasites, affecting echinococcosis prevalence and human disease. Ecological environmental changes due to anthropogenic activities and natural events drive Echinococcus transmission and NHAR provides a notable example illustrating how human activity can impact on a parasitic infection of major public health significance. It is very important to continually monitor these environmental (including climatic) factors that drive the distribution of Echinococcus spp. and their impact on transmission to humans because such information is necessary to formulate reliable future public health policy for echinococcosis control programs and to prevent disease spread.

  3. An ecological process model of systems change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peirson, Leslea J; Boydell, Katherine M; Ferguson, H Bruce; Ferris, Lorraine E

    2011-06-01

    In June 2007 the American Journal of Community Psychology published a special issue focused on theories, methods and interventions for systems change which included calls from the editors and authors for theoretical advancement in this field. We propose a conceptual model of systems change that integrates familiar and fundamental community psychology principles (succession, interdependence, cycling of resources, adaptation) and accentuates a process orientation. To situate our framework we offer a definition of systems change and a brief review of the ecological perspective and principles. The Ecological Process Model of Systems Change is depicted, described and applied to a case example of policy driven systems level change in publicly funded social programs. We conclude by identifying salient implications for thinking and action which flow from the Model.

  4. The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vallis, Geoffrey K. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2015-01-30

    The project had two main components. The first concerns estimating the climate sensitivity in the presence of forcing uncertainty and natural variability. Climate sensitivity is the increase in the average surface temperature for a given increase in greenhouse gases, for example a doubling of carbon dioxide. We have provided new, probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity using a simple climate model an the observed warming in the 20th century, in conjunction with ideas in data assimilation and parameter estimation developed in the engineering community. The estimates combine the uncertainty in the anthropogenic aerosols with the uncertainty arising because of natural variability. The second component concerns how the atmospheric circulation itself might change with anthropogenic global warming. We have shown that GCMs robustly predict an increase in the length scale of eddies, and we have also explored the dynamical mechanisms whereby there might be a shift in the latitude of the jet stream associated with anthropogenic warming. Such shifts in the jet might cause large changes in regional climate, potentially larger than the globally-averaged signal itself. We have also shown that the tropopause robustly increases in height with global warming, and that the Hadley Cell expands, and that the expansion of the Hadley Cell is correlated with the polewards movement of the mid-latitude jet.

  5. Climatic changes and anthropogenic pollution as evidenced by two Alpine lacustrine records, Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevenon, Florian; Poté, John; Guédron, Stéphane; Adatte, Thierry; Chiaradia, Massimo; Loizeau, Jean-Luc; Spangenberg, Jorge; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

    2010-05-01

    This study aims to provide high-resolution records of climatic changes and human impacts on two different Alpine environments: Lake Lucerne is a large (114 km2) lake located at 434 m asl in Central Switzerland, whereas Meidsee is a small (industrial history and the last millennia were sampled with a resolution of 1 cm, and investigated for organic (13δC, 15δN, C/N) and/or inorganic (δ13C, δ18O) matter contents, and elemental composition (REE compositions, trace elements, and heavy metals). Both sites exhibit 1) rapid hydrological changes related to variations in winter precipitations, and 2) increases in atmospheric pollution due to human activities. Lead enrichment factors combined to changes in lead isotopic composition (206Pb/207Pb ratio) are used to distinguish natural from anthropogenic sources. The greatest mercury and lead atmospheric emissions occurred during the twentieth century, resulting from the extensive combustion of fossil coal and petroleum in Europe. Although the highest heavy metals fluxes are synchronous with major anthropogenic changes (e.g. Roman mining, industrial revolution), proxies show that in absence of such events, the heavy metals deposition in the sedimentary records is primarily influenced by sedimentological processes linked to climate variations (i.e. runoff and erosion processes).

  6. Fire Data as Proxy for Anthropogenic Landscape Change in the Yucatán

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Millones

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Fire is one of the earliest and most common tools used by humans to modify the earth surface. Landscapes in the Yucatán Peninsula are composed of a mosaic of old growth subtropical forest, secondary vegetation, grasslands, and agricultural land that represent a well-documented example of anthropogenic intervention, much of which involves the use of fire. This research characterizes land use systems and land cover changes in the Yucatán during the 2000–2010 time period. We used an active fire remotely sensed data time series from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, in combination with forest loss, and anthrome map sources to (1 establish the association between fire and land use change in the region; and (2 explore links between the spatial and temporal patterns of fire and specific types of land use practices, including within- and between-anthromes variability. A spatial multinomial logit model was constructed using fire, landscape configuration, and a set of commonly used control variables to estimate forest persistence, non-forest persistence, and change. Cross-tabulations and descriptive statistics were used to explore the relationships between fire occurrence, location, and timing with respect to the geography of land use. We also compared fire frequencies within and between anthrome groups using a negative binomial model and Tukey pairwise comparisons. Results show that fire data broadly reproduce the geography and timing of anthropogenic land change. Findings indicate that fire and landscape configuration is useful in explaining forest change and non-forest persistence, especially in fragmented (mosaicked landscapes. Absence of fire occurrence is related usefully to the persistence of spatially continuous core areas of older growth forest. Fire has a positive relationship with forest to non-forest change and a negative relationship with forest persistence. Fire is also a good indicator to distinguish between

  7. Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crompton, Ryan P; McAneney, K John; Pielke, Roger A Jr

    2011-01-01

    Recent reviews have concluded that efforts to date have yet to detect or attribute an anthropogenic climate change influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone (of at least tropical storm strength) behaviour and concomitant damage. However, the possibility of identifying such influence in the future cannot be ruled out. Using projections of future tropical cyclone activity from a recent prominent study we estimate the time that it would take for anthropogenic signals to emerge in a time series of normalized US tropical cyclone losses. Depending on the global climate model(s) underpinning the projection, emergence timescales range between 120 and 550 years, reflecting a large uncertainty. It takes 260 years for an 18-model ensemble-based signal to emerge. Consequently, under the projections examined here, the detection or attribution of an anthropogenic signal in tropical cyclone loss data is extremely unlikely to occur over periods of several decades (and even longer). This caution extends more generally to global weather-related natural disaster losses.

  8. Dynamic plant ecology: the spectrum of vegetational change in space and time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delcourt, H R; Delcourt, P A; Webb, T III

    1983-01-01

    Different environmental forcing functions influence vegetational patterns and processes over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the micro-scale (1 year to 5 x 10/sup 3/ years, 1 m/sup 2/ to 10/sup 6/m/sup 2/) natural and anthropogenic disturbances affect establishment and succession of species populations. At the macro-scale (5 x 10/sup 3/ years to 10/sup 6/ years and 10/sup 6/m/sup 2/ to 10/sup 12/m/sup 2/) climatic changes influence regional vegetational processes that include migrations of species as well as displacement of ecosystems. Mega-scale phenomena such as plate tectonics, evolution of the biota and development of global patterns of vegetation occur on the time scale of > 10/sup 6/ years and over areas > 10/sup 12/m/sup 2/. Our knowledge of past vegetational changes resulting from Quaternary climatic change can be used to predict biotic responses to future climatic changes such as global warming that may be induced by increased carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/) concentrations in the atmosphere. The time scale for future climatic warming may be much more rapid than that characterizing the early- to mid-Holocene, increasing the probability of rapid turnover in species composition, changes in local and regional dominance of important taxa, displacement of species ranges and local extinction of species. Integration of ecological and paleoecological perspectives on vegetational dynamics is fundamental to understanding and managing the biosphere.

  9. The Encyclical Laudato Si': integral ecology, gender and deep ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Eustáquio Diniz Alves

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Pope Jorge Mario Bergoglio released the "Encyclical Laudato Si': on the care of common home" on June 18, 2015, the same day that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA has shown that the temperature of Earth continues increasing and that May of 2015 was Earth's warmest month, since 1880. By endorsing the scientific knowledge in relation to anthropogenic factors on global warming and by defending actions to confront the causes of climate change and ecosystem degradation, the Holy See has taken a key step to put Catholics at the forefront of global ecological struggle and to encourage the signing of the global treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP-21, that will take place in December in Paris. But the encyclical of Pope Francis proposes a larger task that is to protect the poorest of the poor countries, addressing jointly the human environment and the natural environment from the perspective of an integral ecology. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the advances and limitations of the propositions of the encyclical Laudato Si ' and to expand the dialogue on gender relations and deep ecology.

  10. Anthropogenic effect on avalanche and debris flow activity

    OpenAIRE

    S. A. Sokratov; Yu. G. Seliverstov; A. L. Shnyparkov; K. P. Koltermann

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents examples of the change in snow avalanches and debris flows activity due to the anthropogenic pressure on vegetation and relief. The changes in dynamical characteristics of selected snow avalanches and debris flows due to the anthropogenic activity are quantified. The conclusion is made that the anthropogenic effects on the snow avalanches and debris flows activity are more pronounced than the possible effects of the climate change. The necessity is expressed on the unavoida...

  11. Satellite Earth observation data to identify anthropogenic pressures in selected protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagendra, Harini; Mairota, Paola; Marangi, Carmela; Lucas, Richard; Dimopoulos, Panayotis; Honrado, João Pradinho; Niphadkar, Madhura; Mücher, Caspar A.; Tomaselli, Valeria; Panitsa, Maria; Tarantino, Cristina; Manakos, Ioannis; Blonda, Palma

    2015-05-01

    Protected areas are experiencing increased levels of human pressure. To enable appropriate conservation action, it is critical to map and monitor changes in the type and extent of land cover/use and habitat classes, which can be related to human pressures over time. Satellite Earth observation (EO) data and techniques offer the opportunity to detect such changes. Yet association with field information and expert interpretation by ecologists is required to interpret, qualify and link these changes to human pressure. There is thus an urgent need to harmonize the technical background of experts in the field of EO data analysis with the terminology of ecologists, protected area management authorities and policy makers in order to provide meaningful, context-specific value-added EO products. This paper builds on the DPSIR framework, providing a terminology to relate the concepts of state, pressures, and drivers with the application of EO analysis. The type of pressure can be inferred through the detection of changes in state (i.e. changes in land cover and/or habitat type and/or condition). Four broad categories of changes in state are identified, i.e. land cover/habitat conversion, land cover/habitat modification, habitat fragmentation and changes in landscape connectivity, and changes in plant community structure. These categories of change in state can be mapped through EO analyses, with the goal of using expert judgement to relate changes in state to causal direct anthropogenic pressures. Drawing on expert knowledge, a set of protected areas located in diverse socio-ecological contexts and subject to a variety of pressures are analysed to (a) link the four categories of changes in state of land cover/habitats to the drivers (anthropogenic pressure), as relevant to specific target land cover and habitat classes; (b) identify (for pressure mapping) the most appropriate spatial and temporal EO data sources as well as interpretations from ecologists and field data

  12. Complex demographic heterogeneity from anthropogenic impacts in a coastal marine predator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oro, Daniel; Álvarez, David; Velando, Alberto

    2018-04-01

    Environmental drivers, including anthropogenic impacts, affect vital rates of organisms. Nevertheless, the influence of these drivers may depend on the physical features of the habitat and how they affect life history strategies depending on individual covariates such as age and sex. Here, the long-term monitoring (1994-2014) of marked European Shags in eight colonies in two regions with different ecological features, such as foraging habitat, allowed us to test several biological hypotheses about how survival changes by age and sex in each region by means of multi-event capture-recapture modeling. Impacts included fishing practices and bycatch, invasive introduced carnivores and the severe Prestige oil spill. Adult survival was constant but, unexpectedly, it was different between sexes. This difference was opposite in each region. The impact of the oil spill on survival was important only for adults (especially for females) in one region and lasted a single year. Juvenile survival was time dependent but this variability was not synchronized between regions, suggesting a strong signal of regional environmental variability. Mortality due to bycatch was also different between sex, age and region. Interestingly the results showed that the size of the fishing fleet is not necessarily a good proxy for assessing the impact of bycatch mortality, which may be more dependent on the fishing grounds and the fishing gears employed in each season of the year. Anthropogenic impacts affected survival differently by age and sex, which was expected for a long-lived organism with sexual size dimorphism. Strikingly, these differences varied depending on the region, indicating that habitat heterogeneity is demographically important to how environmental variability (including anthropogenic impacts) and resilience influence population dynamics. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  13. On a dhole trail: examining ecological and anthropogenic correlates of dhole habitat occupancy in the Western ghats of India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arjun Srivathsa

    Full Text Available Although they play a critical role in shaping ecological communities, many threatened predator species are data-deficient. The Dhole Cuon alpinus is one such rare canid with a global population thought to be <2500 wild individuals. We assessed habitat occupancy patterns of dholes in the Western Ghats of Karnataka, India, to understand ecological and anthropogenic determinants of their distribution and habitat-use. We conducted spatially replicated detection/non-detection surveys of dhole signs along forest trails at two appropriate scales: the entire landscape and a single wildlife reserve. Landscape-scale habitat occupancy was assessed across 38,728 km(2 surveying 206 grid cells of 188-km(2 each. Finer scale habitat-use within 935 km2 Bandipur Reserve was studied surveying 92 grid cells of 13-km(2 km each. We analyzed the resulting data of dhole signs using likelihood-based habitat occupancy models. The models explicitly addressed the problematic issue of imperfect detection of dhole signs during field surveys as well as potential spatial auto-correlation between sign detections made on adjacent trail segments. We show that traditional 'presence versus absence' analyses underestimated dhole habitat occupancy by 60% or 8682 km2 [naïve = 0.27; ψL(SE  = 0.68 (0.08] in the landscape. Addressing imperfect sign detections by estimating detection probabilities [p(t(L (SE = 0.12 (0.11] was critical for reliable estimation. Similar underestimation occurred while estimating habitat-use probability at reserve-scale [naïve = 0.39; Ψs(SE = 0.71 (0.06]. At landscape scale, relative abundance of principal ungulate prey primarily influenced dhole habitat occupancy. Habitat-use within a reserve, however, was predominantly and negatively influenced by anthropogenic disturbance. Our results are the first rigorous assessment of dhole occupancy at multiple spatial scales with potential conservation value. The approach used in this study has potential

  14. A Framework to Quantify the Strength of the Ecological Links ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropogenic stressors such as climate change, fire, and pollution are driving shifts in ecosystem function and resilience. Scientists generally rely on biological indicators of these stressors to signal that ecosystem conditions have been altered beyond an acceptable amount. However, these biological indicators are not always capable of being directly related to ecosystem services that allow scientists to communicate the importance of the change to land managers and policy makers. Therefore, we developed the STEPS (STressor – Ecological Production function – final ecosystem goods and Services) Framework to link changes in a biological indicator of a stressor to Final Ecosystem Goods and Services (FEGS). The STEPS framework produces “chains” of ecological components that connect the change in a biological indicator to the Final Ecosystem Goods and Services Classification System (FEGS-CS). The series of ecological components is an ecological production functions (EPF) which links a biological indicator of a stressor to an ecological endpoint (i.e., FEGS) that is directly used, appreciated, or valued by humans. The framework uses a qualitative score (High, Medium, Low) for the Strength of Science (SOS) for the relationship between each of the components in the EPF to identify research gaps and prioritize decision making based on what research has been completed. The ecological endpoint of the EPF is a FEGS to which discrete Beneficiaries, or direct users

  15. Contrasting effects of anthropogenic and natural acidity in streams: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrin, Zlatko; Englund, Göran; Malmqvist, Björn

    2008-05-22

    Large-scale human activities including the extensive combustion of fossil fuels have caused acidification of freshwater systems on a continental scale, resulting in reduced species diversity and, in some instances, impaired ecological functioning. In regions where acidity is natural, however, species diversity and functioning seem to be less affected. This contrasting response is likely to have more than one explanation including the possibility of adaptation in organisms exposed to natural acidity over evolutionary time scales and differential toxicity due to dissimilarities in water chemistry other than pH. However, empirical evidence supporting these hypotheses is equivocal. Partly, this is because previous research has mainly been conducted at relatively small geographical scales, and information on ecological functioning in this context is generally scarce. Our goal was to test whether anthropogenic acidity has stronger negative effects on species diversity and ecological functioning than natural acidity. Using a meta-analytic approach based on 60 datasets, we show that macroinvertebrate species richness and the decomposition of leaf litter -- an important process in small streams -- tend to decrease with increasing acidity across regions and across both the acidity categories. Macroinvertebrate species richness, however, declines three times more rapidly with increasing acidity where it is anthropogenic than where it is natural, in agreement with the adaptation hypothesis and the hypothesis of differences in water chemistry. By contrast, the loss in ecological functioning differs little between the categories, probably because increases in the biomass of taxa remaining at low pH compensate for losses in functionality that would otherwise accompany losses of taxa from acidic systems. This example from freshwater acidification illustrates how natural and anthropogenic stressors can differ markedly in their effects on species diversity and one aspect of

  16. Testing the ecological consequences of evolutionary change using elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeyasingh, Punidan D; Cothran, Rickey D; Tobler, Michael

    2014-02-01

    Understanding the ecological consequences of evolutionary change is a central challenge in contemporary biology. We propose a framework based on the ˜25 elements represented in biology, which can serve as a conduit for a general exploration of poorly understood evolution-to-ecology links. In this framework, known as ecological stoichiometry, the quantity of elements in the inorganic realm is a fundamental environment, while the flow of elements from the abiotic to the biotic realm is due to the action of genomes, with the unused elements excreted back into the inorganic realm affecting ecological processes at higher levels of organization. Ecological stoichiometry purposefully assumes distinct elemental composition of species, enabling powerful predictions about the ecological functions of species. However, this assumption results in a simplified view of the evolutionary mechanisms underlying diversification in the elemental composition of species. Recent research indicates substantial intraspecific variation in elemental composition and associated ecological functions such as nutrient excretion. We posit that attention to intraspecific variation in elemental composition will facilitate a synthesis of stoichiometric information in light of population genetics theory for a rigorous exploration of the ecological consequences of evolutionary change.

  17. Impact of anthropogenic and natural environmental changes on Echinococcus transmission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the People’s Republic of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Echinococcus transmission is known to be affected by various environmental factors, which may be modified by human influence or natural events including global warming. Considerable population growth in the last fifty years in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), has led to dramatic increases in deforestation and modified agricultural practices. In turn, this has resulted in many changes in the habitats for the definitive and intermediate hosts of both Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, which have increased the risks for transmission of both parasites, affecting echinococcosis prevalence and human disease. Ecological environmental changes due to anthropogenic activities and natural events drive Echinococcus transmission and NHAR provides a notable example illustrating how human activity can impact on a parasitic infection of major public health significance. It is very important to continually monitor these environmental (including climatic) factors that drive the distribution of Echinococcus spp. and their impact on transmission to humans because such information is necessary to formulate reliable future public health policy for echinococcosis control programs and to prevent disease spread. PMID:22827890

  18. Impact of anthropogenic and natural environmental changes on Echinococcus transmission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the People’s Republic of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yu

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Echinococcus transmission is known to be affected by various environmental factors, which may be modified by human influence or natural events including global warming. Considerable population growth in the last fifty years in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR, the People’s Republic of China (PRC, has led to dramatic increases in deforestation and modified agricultural practices. In turn, this has resulted in many changes in the habitats for the definitive and intermediate hosts of both Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, which have increased the risks for transmission of both parasites, affecting echinococcosis prevalence and human disease. Ecological environmental changes due to anthropogenic activities and natural events drive Echinococcus transmission and NHAR provides a notable example illustrating how human activity can impact on a parasitic infection of major public health significance. It is very important to continually monitor these environmental (including climatic factors that drive the distribution of Echinococcus spp. and their impact on transmission to humans because such information is necessary to formulate reliable future public health policy for echinococcosis control programs and to prevent disease spread.

  19. Historical changes in northeastern US bee pollinators related to shared ecological traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartomeus, Ignasi; Ascher, John S; Gibbs, Jason; Danforth, Bryan N; Wagner, David L; Hedtke, Shannon M; Winfree, Rachael

    2013-03-19

    Pollinators such as bees are essential to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. However, despite concerns about a global pollinator crisis, long-term data on the status of bee species are limited. We present a long-term study of relative rates of change for an entire regional bee fauna in the northeastern United States, based on >30,000 museum records representing 438 species. Over a 140-y period, aggregate native species richness weakly decreased, but richness declines were significant only for the genus Bombus. Of 187 native species analyzed individually, only three declined steeply, all of these in the genus Bombus. However, there were large shifts in community composition, as indicated by 56% of species showing significant changes in relative abundance over time. Traits associated with a declining relative abundance include small dietary and phenological breadth and large body size. In addition, species with lower latitudinal range boundaries are increasing in relative abundance, a finding that may represent a response to climate change. We show that despite marked increases in human population density and large changes in anthropogenic land use, aggregate native species richness declines were modest outside of the genus Bombus. At the same time, we find that certain ecological traits are associated with declines in relative abundance. These results should help target conservation efforts focused on maintaining native bee abundance and diversity and therefore the important ecosystems services that they provide.

  20. Focusing on the Interfaces, Estuaries and Redox Transition Zones, for Understanding the Microbial Processes and Biogeochemical Cycling of Carbon under the Looming Influence of Global Warming and Anthropogenic Perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, H.; Jiao, N.

    2013-12-01

    Estuaries are the natural interface between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. These are also the zones where human activities exert the strongest impact on the earth and ocean environments. Due to high pressure from the effects of global warming and anthropogenic activities, many estuaries are deteriorating and experiencing significant change of the ecological processes and environmental functions. Certain fundamental microbial processes, including carbon fixation and respiration, have been changing as responses to and consequences of the altered estuarine environment and geochemistry. Increased inputs of terrigenous and anthropogenic organic materials and nutrients and elevated temperature make estuaries easy to be subjected to harmful algal blooms and hypoxic and even anoxic events. The change of the redox status of the estuarine and coastal waters and the increased nutrient loads such as that from terrestrial nitrate stimulate anaerobic respiration processes, such as nitrate reduction and denitrification. This may have strong negative impact on the marine environment, ecosystem and even climate, such as those caused by greenhouse gas production (N2O, CH4) by anaerobic microbial processes. In addition, some nutrients may be consumed by anaerobically respiring heterotrophic microorganisms, instead of being utilized by phytoplankton for carbon fixation. In this regard, the ecological function of the estuarine ecosystem may be altered and the ecological efficiency may be lowered, as less energy is produced by the microbial respiration process and less carbon is fixed by phytoplankton. However, on the other side, in hypoxic and anoxic waters, inorganic carbon fixation by anaerobic microorganisms may happen, such as those via the chemolithoautotrophic denitrifying sulfur oxidizing process and the anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) process. Global warming and anthropogenic perturbations may have lowered the diversity, complexity, stability and sustainability of

  1. Political economy of climate change, ecological destruction and uneven development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Hara, Phillip Anthony

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze climate change and ecological destruction through the prism of the core general principles of political economy. The paper starts with the principle of historical specificity, and the various waves of climate change through successive cooler and warmer periods on planet Earth, including the most recent climate change escalation through the open circuit associated with the treadmill of production. Then we scrutinize the principle of contradiction associated with the disembedded economy, social costs, entropy and destructive creation. The principle of uneven development is then explored through core-periphery dynamics, ecologically unequal exchange, metabolic rift and asymmetric global (in)justice. The principles of circular and cumulative causation (CCC) and uncertainty are then related to climate change dynamics through non-linear transformations, complex interaction of dominant variables, and threshold effects. Climate change and ecological destruction are impacting on most areas, especially the periphery, earlier and more intensely than previously thought likely. A political economy approach to climate change is able to enrich the analysis of ecological economics and put many critical themes in a broad context. (author)

  2. Anthropogenic effect on avalanche and debris flow activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Sokratov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents examples of the change in snow avalanches and debris flows activity due to the anthropogenic pressure on vegetation and relief. The changes in dynamical characteristics of selected snow avalanches and debris flows due to the anthropogenic activity are quantified. The conclusion is made that the anthropogenic effects on the snow avalanches and debris flows activity are more pronounced than the possible effects of the climate change. The necessity is expressed on the unavoidable changes of the natural environment as the result of a construction and of use of the constructed infrastructure to be account for in corresponding planning of the protection measures.

  3. Linking effects of anthropogenic debris to ecological impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Browne, M.A.; Underwood, A.J.; Chapman, M.G.; Williams, R.; Thompson, R.C.; Franeker, van J.A.

    2015-01-01

    Accelerated contamination of habitats with debris has caused increased effort to determine ecological impacts. Strikingly, most work on organisms focuses on sublethal responses to plastic debris. This is controversial because (i) researchers have ignored medical insights about the mechanisms that

  4. Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

  5. Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, Lennart

    1999-01-01

    The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

  6. The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

    2016-01-01

    A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models,…

  7. Analysis on the adaptive countermeasures to ecological management under changing environment in the Tarim River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Fan; Xue, Lianqing; Zhang, Luochen; Chen, Xinfang; Chi, Yixia

    2017-12-01

    This article aims to explore the adaptive utilization strategies of flow regime versus traditional practices in the context of climate change and human activities in the arid area. The study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the Budyko method and adaptive utilization strategies to eco-hydrological regime by comparing the applicability between autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) model and combined regression model. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in streamflow deduction in the mainstream with contribution of 120.7%~190.1%. While in the headstreams, climatic variables were the primary determinant of streamflow by 56.5~152.6% of the increase. The comparison revealed that combined regression model performed better than ARMA model with the qualified rate of 80.49~90.24%. Based on the forecasts of streamflow for different purposes, the adaptive utilization scheme of water flow is established from the perspective of time and space. Our study presents an effective water resources scheduling scheme for the ecological environment and provides references for ecological protection and water allocation in the arid area.

  8. The changing hydro-ecological dynamics of rivers and deltas of the Western Indian Ocean: Anthropogenic and environmental drivers, local adaptation and policy response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvail, Stéphanie; Hamerlynck, Olivier; Paron, Paolo; Hervé, Dominique; Nyingi, Wanja D.; Leone, Michele

    2017-10-01

    The rivers flowing into the Western Indian Ocean have steep headwater gradients and carry high sediment loads. In combination with strong tides and seasonal rainfall, these rivers create dynamic deltas with biodiversity-rich and productive ecosystems that, through flooding, have sustained indigenous use systems for centuries. However, river catchments are rapidly changing due to deforestation. Hydropower dams also increasingly alter flood characteristics, reduce sediment supply and contribute to coastal erosion. These impacts are compounded by climate change. Altogether, these changes affect the livelihoods of the delta users. Here, based on prior works that we and others have conducted in the region, we analyse the drivers of these hydro-ecological changes. We then provide recommendations for improved dam design and operations to sustain the underlying delta-building processes, the ecosystem values and the needs of the users.

  9. Attenuating initial beliefs: Increasing the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change information by reflecting on values

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Prooijen, A.M.; Sparks, P.

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self-affirmation via reflection on personally important values

  10. Has Anthropogenic Forcing Caused a Discernible Change in Atlantic Hurricane Activity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, T. R.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2007-12-01

    the time series and ends with the recent high activity, perhaps exaggerating the significance of the trend. The trend beginning from 1878 is weakly positive, and not statistically significant with p=0.3. The uncertainty in the late 1800s is larger than that during the 1900s--an important caveat on the results using the earlier start date. Tropical cyclone occurrence rates appear to have decreased in the western part of the basin (consistent with declining U.S. landfalling hurricane counts) but may have increased slightly in the central and eastern basin, suggesting a structural change such as shifts in storm tracks. Important assumptions of our methodology, such as that all landfalling storms since 1878 were detected and reported, require further investigation. In an attempt to reconcile the past observations with models, we have developed a regional modeling framework for downscaling Atlantic hurricane activity. Given observed large-scale atmospheric conditions and SSTs from reanalyses, the model reproduces several aspects of past Atlantic hurricane behavior (1980-2006). However, much further work is needed to produce simulations where hurricane activity changes can be confidently attributed, using such models, to various anthropogenic forcings or natural processes. Based on available evidence, we cannot yet conclude with high confidence that anthropogenic forcing has caused a discernible anthropogenic influence on hurricane activity to date.

  11. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Raquel A; West, J Jason; Zhang Yuqiang; Anenberg, Susan C; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T; Faluvegi, Greg; Collins, William J; Dalsoren, Stig; Skeie, Ragnhild; Folberth, Gerd; Rumbold, Steven; Horowitz, Larry W; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene

    2013-01-01

    Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM 2.5 -related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr −1 due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM 2.5 . The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality. (letter)

  13. The river Ganga of northern India: an appraisal of its geomorphic and ecological changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, S K; Bhattacharya, A; Bhattacharya, B

    2003-01-01

    The Ganga is the most important perennial river originating from Gangotri in the snow-bound Himalayas about 3,900 m above mean sea level. Gorging a distance of about 220 km in the Himalayas, it enters the plain at Hardwar and after meandering and braiding over a distance of about 2,525 km through the Indo-Gangetic plains, ultimately joins the Bay of Bengal. The course of this river has been changed due to: (i) subsurface geotectonic movement leading to change in slope of the deltaic plain and subsidence of the Bengal basin; (ii) changing pattern of water discharge with time; (iii) variations in sediment load. The environment of Ganga basin is also deteriorating with time due to severe natural episodes of periodic floods and storms as well as anthropogenic factors such as population growth, deforestation, agricultural activities, urbanisation, fertiliser and fossil fuel consumption and construction activities such as dams and bridges. All these have inconceivable adverse impacts on the health and natural regeneration capacity of the river basin. The presence of micropollutants in water and sediments of this river turns the system into being unsustainable to the biota. The present study synthesises the available information on the changes of its geological, geomorphological and ecological aspects and suggests some remedial measures to be adopted now and in future.

  14. Resilience, political ecology, and well-being: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding social-ecological change in coastal Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia F. Hoque

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The commodification of peasant livelihoods through export-oriented aquaculture has brought about significant social-ecological changes in low-lying coastal areas in many parts of Asia. A better understanding of the underlying drivers and distributional effects of these changes requires integration of social and ecological approaches that often have different epistemological origins. Resilience thinking has gained increased traction in social-ecological systems research because it provides a dynamic analysis of the cross-scalar interactions between multiple conditions and processes. However, the system-oriented perspective inherent in resilience thinking fails to acknowledge the heterogeneous values, interests, and power of social actors and their roles in navigating social-ecological change. Incorporation of political ecology and well-being perspectives can provide an actor-oriented analysis of the trade-offs associated with change and help to determine which state is desirable for whom. However, empirical demonstrations of such interdisciplinary approaches remain scarce. Here, we explore the combined application of resilience, political ecology, and well-being in investigating the root causes of social-ecological change and identifying the winners and losers of system transformation through empirical analysis of the differential changes in farming systems in two villages in coastal Bangladesh. Using the adaptive cycle as a structuring model, we examine the evolution of the shrimp aquaculture system over the past few decades, particularly looking at the power dynamics between households of different wealth classes. We found that although asymmetric land ownership and political ties enabled the wealthier households to reach their desired farming system in one village, social resilience achieved through memory, leadership, and crisis empowered poorer households to exercise their agency in another village. Material dimensions such as improved

  15. Celtic field agriculture and Early Anthropogenic Environmental change in soil records of the Meuse-Demer-Scheldt region, NW Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Sanden, Germaine; Kluiving, Sjoerd; Roymans, Nico

    2017-04-01

    Archaeological research is fundamental in the process of obtaining a greater understanding on the intricate dynamics between the human species and the 'natural' environment. Deep historical processes can evaluate the complex interactions that eventually led to the human species as the dominating agent, in terms of the Earth's biotic and abiotic processes. Regional landscape studies can determine whether the human species can be evaluated as a formative element in soil formation processes during the Holocene. This study is directed to examine early anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) in the Meuse-Demer-Scheldt region, in the southern Netherlands and northern Belgium, between the Late Bronze Age and Early Roman Period (1050-200 AD). The introduction of an extensive agricultural system, the Celtic field system, in co-relation with demographic rise, led to increased anthropogenic pressure on the MDS landscape. Throughout the Holocene, demographic rise pressured farmers to develop increasingly efficient and innovative methods of extracting more yields per unit area farmed resulting in a decrease in land use per capita over time (Kaplan et al. 2010; Boserup, 1965,1981)). The land use per capita under Celtic field technology was relatively high compared to contemporary numbers, based on the assumption that land use per capita did not remain constant. The MDS region is a clear example of early Holocene ALCC and modification of terrestrial ecosystems due to excessive clearance of vegetation. Early Holocene ALCC resulted in ecological deficiencies in the landscape, e.g. deforestation, acceleration of podzolisation and a decrease in terrestrial carbon storage as well as water retention capacity. ALCC can impact climate through biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the atmosphere, and result in regional negative radiative forcing. Here we hypothesize that the previously presumed fundamental restructuring that led to a structural bipartition in the landscape due to

  16. Analysis of the Contribution Rate of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity to Runoff Variation in Nenjiang Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liqin Dong

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Pettitt abrupt change test method based on ArcGIS was used to undertake change-point analysis on climatic (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration; 39 meteorological stations and runoff data (27 hydrological stations from 1954–2015 in the Nenjiang basin. The hydrological sensitivity analysis method was also used to calculate the influential component of climate change upstream, mid-stream, and downstream of the Nenjiang basin, as well as the effect of anthropogenic activities on runoff. Our results show that the upstream area has the highest contribution rate of climate change, followed by the mid-stream area; the downstream area has the lowest contribution rate. Studying climate change contribution rates in various sites in the Nenjiang basin, in addition to anthropogenic activities affecting runoff, can provide the foundation for the protection and utilization of basin water resources, as well as the conservation and restoration of wetlands.

  17. Ecological Footprint in relation to Climate Change Strategy in Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belčáková, Ingrid; Diviaková, Andrea; Belaňová, Eliška

    2017-10-01

    Ecological footprint determines how much natural resources are consumed by an individual, city, region, state or all inhabitants of our planet in order to ensure their requirements and needs. It includes all activities, from food consumption, housing, transport to waste produced and allows us to compare particular activities and their impacts on the environment and natural resources. Ecological footprint is important issue for making sustainable development concept more popular using simplifications, which provide the public with basic information on situation on our planet. Today we know calculations of global (worldwide), national and local ecological footprints. During our research in cities, we were concentrated on calculation of city’s ecological footprint. The article tries to outline theoretical and assumptions and practical results of climate change consequences in cities of Bratislava and Nitra (Slovakia), to describe potential of mitigating adverse impacts of climate change and to provide information for general and professional public on theoretical assumptions in calculating ecological footprint. The intention is to present innovation of ecological footprint calculation, taking into consideration ecological stability of a city (with a specific focus on micro-climate functions of green areas). Present possibilities to reduce ecological footprint are presented.

  18. Bringing an ecological view of change to Landsat-based remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Robert E.; Andrefouet, Serge; Cohen, Warren; Gomez, Cristina; Griffiths, Patrick; Hais, Martin; Healey, Sean; Helmer, Eileen H.; Hostert, Patrick; Lyons, Mitchell; Meigs, Garrett; Pflugmacher, Dirk; Phinn, Stuart; Powell, Scott; Scarth, Peter; Susmita, Sen; Schroeder, Todd A.; Schneider, Annemarie; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Vogelmann, James; Wulder, Michael A.; Zhu, Zhe

    2014-01-01

    When characterizing the processes that shape ecosystems, ecologists increasingly use the unique perspective offered by repeat observations of remotely sensed imagery. However, the concept of change embodied in much of the traditional remote-sensing literature was primarily limited to capturing large or extreme changes occurring in natural systems, omitting many more subtle processes of interest to ecologists. Recent technical advances have led to a fundamental shift toward an ecological view of change. Although this conceptual shift began with coarser-scale global imagery, it has now reached users of Landsat imagery, since these datasets have temporal and spatial characteristics appropriate to many ecological questions. We argue that this ecologically relevant perspective of change allows the novel characterization of important dynamic processes, including disturbances, long-term trends, cyclical functions, and feedbacks, and that these improvements are already facilitating our understanding of critical driving forces, such as climate change, ecological interactions, and economic pressures.

  19. Adapting to climate change on Western public lands: addressing the ecological effects of domestic, wild, and feral ungulates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beschta, Robert L; Donahue, Debra L; DellaSala, Dominick A; Rhodes, Jonathan J; Karr, James R; O'Brien, Mary H; Fleischner, Thomas L; Deacon Williams, Cindy

    2013-02-01

    Climate change affects public land ecosystems and services throughout the American West and these effects are projected to intensify. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, adaptation strategies for public lands are needed to reduce anthropogenic stressors of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and to help native species and ecosystems survive in an altered environment. Historical and contemporary livestock production-the most widespread and long-running commercial use of public lands-can alter vegetation, soils, hydrology, and wildlife species composition and abundances in ways that exacerbate the effects of climate change on these resources. Excess abundance of native ungulates (e.g., deer or elk) and feral horses and burros add to these impacts. Although many of these consequences have been studied for decades, the ongoing and impending effects of ungulates in a changing climate require new management strategies for limiting their threats to the long-term supply of ecosystem services on public lands. Removing or reducing livestock across large areas of public land would alleviate a widely recognized and long-term stressor and make these lands less susceptible to the effects of climate change. Where livestock use continues, or where significant densities of wild or feral ungulates occur, management should carefully document the ecological, social, and economic consequences (both costs and benefits) to better ensure management that minimizes ungulate impacts to plant and animal communities, soils, and water resources. Reestablishing apex predators in large, contiguous areas of public land may help mitigate any adverse ecological effects of wild ungulates.

  20. Cloud albedo changes in response to anthropogenic sulfate and non-sulfate aerosol forcings in CMIP5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Frey

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The effects of different aerosol types on cloud albedo are analysed using the linear relation between total albedo and cloud fraction found on a monthly mean scale in regions of subtropical marine stratocumulus clouds and the influence of simulated aerosol variations on this relation. Model experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 are used to separately study the responses to increases in sulfate, non-sulfate and all anthropogenic aerosols. A cloud brightening on the month-to-month scale due to variability in the background aerosol is found to dominate even in the cases where anthropogenic aerosols are added. The aerosol composition is of importance for this cloud brightening, that is thereby region dependent. There is indication that absorbing aerosols to some extent counteract the cloud brightening but scene darkening with increasing aerosol burden is generally not supported, even in regions where absorbing aerosols dominate. Month-to-month cloud albedo variability also confirms the importance of liquid water content for cloud albedo. Regional, monthly mean cloud albedo is found to increase with the addition of anthropogenic aerosols and more so with sulfate than non-sulfate. Changes in cloud albedo between experiments are related to changes in cloud water content as well as droplet size distribution changes, so that models with large increases in liquid water path and/or cloud droplet number show large cloud albedo increases with increasing aerosol. However, no clear relation between model sensitivities to aerosol variations on the month-to-month scale and changes in cloud albedo due to changed aerosol burden is found.

  1. Ecological economics and institutional change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krall, Lisi; Klitgaard, Kent

    2011-02-01

    Ecological economics remains unfinished in its effort to provide a framework for transforming the economy so that it is compatible with biophysical limits. Great strides have been made in valuing natural capital and ecosystem services and recognizing the need to limit the scale of economic activity, but the question of how to effectively transform the economy to limit the scale of economic activity remains unclear. To gain clarity about the institutional changes necessary to limit the scale of economic activity, it is essential that ecological economics understands the limitations of its neoclassical roots and expands its theoretical framework to include how markets are embedded in social and institutional structures. This has long been the domain of institutional economics and heterodox political economy. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

  2. Changing expression of vertebrate immunity genes in an anthropogenic environment: a controlled experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hablützel, Pascal I; Brown, Martha; Friberg, Ida M; Jackson, Joseph A

    2016-09-01

    The effect of anthropogenic environments on the function of the vertebrate immune system is a problem of general importance. For example, it relates to the increasing rates of immunologically-based disease in modern human populations and to the desirability of identifying optimal immune function in domesticated animals. Despite this importance, our present understanding is compromised by a deficit of experimental studies that make adequately matched comparisons between wild and captive vertebrates. We transferred post-larval fishes (three-spined sticklebacks), collected in the wild, to an anthropogenic (captive) environment. We then monitored, over 11 months, how the systemic expression of immunity genes changed in comparison to cohort-matched wild individuals in the originator population (total n = 299). We found that a range of innate (lyz, defbl2, il1r-like, tbk1) and adaptive (cd8a, igmh) immunity genes were up-regulated in captivity, accompanied by an increase in expression of the antioxidant enzyme, gpx4a. For some genes previously known to show seasonality in the wild, this appeared to be reduced in captive fishes. Captive fishes tended to express immunity genes, including igzh, foxp3b, lyz, defbl2, and il1r-like, more variably. Furthermore, although gene co-expression patterns (analyzed through gene-by-gene correlations and mutual information theory based networks) shared common structure in wild and captive fishes, there was also significant divergence. For one gene in particular, defbl2, high expression was associated with adverse health outcomes in captive fishes. Taken together, these results demonstrate widespread regulatory changes in the immune system in captive populations, and that the expression of immunity genes is more constrained in the wild. An increase in constitutive systemic immune activity, such as we observed here, may alter the risk of immunopathology and contribute to variance in health in vertebrate populations exposed to

  3. Fish community-based measures of estuarine ecological quality and pressure-impact relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Vanessa F.; Vasconcelos, Rita P.; Gamito, Rita; Pasquaud, Stéphanie; Gonçalves, Catarina I.; Costa, José L.; Costa, Maria J.; Cabral, Henrique N.

    2013-12-01

    Community-based responses of fish fauna to anthropogenic pressures have been extensively used to assess the ecological quality of estuarine ecosystems. Several methodologies have been developed recently combining metrics reflecting community structure and function. A fish community facing significant environmental disturbances will be characterized by a simplified structure, with lower diversity and complexity. However, estuaries are naturally dynamic ecosystems exposed to numerous human pressures, making it difficult to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic-induced changes to the biological community. In the present work, the variability of several fish metrics was assessed in relation to different pressures in estuarine sites. The response of a multimetric index (Estuarine Fish Assessment Index) was also analysed. Overall, fish metrics and the multimetric index signalled anthropogenic stress, particularly environmental chemical pollution. The fish assemblage associated with this type of pressure was characterized by lower species diversity, lower number of functional guilds, lower abundance of marine migrants and of piscivorous individuals, and higher abundance of estuarine resident species. A decreased ecological quality status, based on the EFAI, was also determined for sites associated with this pressure group. Ultimately, the definition of each pressure groups favoured a stressor-specific analysis, evidencing pressure patterns and accounting for multiple factors in a highly dynamic environment.

  4. RNA:DNA Ratio and Other Nucleic Acid Derived Indices in Marine Ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Chícharo

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Some of most used indicators in marine ecology are nucleic acid-derived indices. They can be divided by target levels in three groups: 1 at the organism level as ecophysiologic indicators, indicators such as RNA:DNA ratios, DNA:dry weight and RNA:protein, 2 at the population level, indicators such as growth rate, starvation incidence or fisheries impact indicators, and 3 at the community level, indicators such as trophic interactions, exergy indices and prey identification. The nucleic acids derived indices, especially RNA:DNA ratio, have been applied with success as indicators of nutritional condition, well been and growth in marine organisms. They are also useful as indicators of natural or anthropogenic impacts in marine population and communities, such as upwelling or dredge fisheries, respectively. They can help in understanding important issues of marine ecology such as trophic interactions in marine environment, fish and invertebrate recruitment failure and biodiversity changes, without laborious work of counting, measuring and identification of small marine organisms. Besides the objective of integrate nucleic acid derived indices across levels of organization, the paper will also include a general characterization of most used nucleic acid derived indices in marine ecology and also advantages and limitations of them. We can conclude that using indicators, such RNA:DNA ratios and other nucleic acids derived indices concomitantly with organism and ecosystems measures of responses to climate change (distribution, abundance, activity, metabolic rate, survival will allow for the development of more rigorous and realistic predictions of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on marine systems.

  5. Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) as a bridge between ecology and evolutionary genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bybee, Seth; Córdoba-Aguilar, Alex; Duryea, M Catherine; Futahashi, Ryo; Hansson, Bengt; Lorenzo-Carballa, M Olalla; Schilder, Ruud; Stoks, Robby; Suvorov, Anton; Svensson, Erik I; Swaegers, Janne; Takahashi, Yuma; Watts, Phillip C; Wellenreuther, Maren

    2016-01-01

    Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) present an unparalleled insect model to integrate evolutionary genomics with ecology for the study of insect evolution. Key features of Odonata include their ancient phylogenetic position, extensive phenotypic and ecological diversity, several unique evolutionary innovations, ease of study in the wild and usefulness as bioindicators for freshwater ecosystems worldwide. In this review, we synthesize studies on the evolution, ecology and physiology of odonates, highlighting those areas where the integration of ecology with genomics would yield significant insights into the evolutionary processes that would not be gained easily by working on other animal groups. We argue that the unique features of this group combined with their complex life cycle, flight behaviour, diversity in ecological niches and their sensitivity to anthropogenic change make odonates a promising and fruitful taxon for genomics focused research. Future areas of research that deserve increased attention are also briefly outlined.

  6. Bio-monitoring of the most industrialized area in Poland: Trees' response to climate and anthropogenic environmental changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sensuła, Barbara; Wilczyński, Sławomir; Piotrowska, Natalia

    2017-04-01

    Silesia is one of the regions with the highest levels of air pollution in Europe, highly industrialized over the years and highly populated. In this study, trees (Pinus Sylvestris L.)growing in the heavily urbanized area in close proximity to point-source pollution emitters, such as a heat and power plant, nitrogen plant, and steelworks in Silesia (Poland), were analyzed as bio-indicators of contemporary environmental changes. Trees are a very good archive of ecosystem changes, becouse they are sensitive to climate changes and anthropogenic pollution. The pollution impacts human, plants and animal life and different ecosystem processes. The changes in the ecosystem can disturb the metabolism and physiological processes of trees, and consequently, they also have an effect on the wood structure, tree ring width and the isotopic composition of wood and its components. The analysed samples covered the time period of the development of industrialization and the modernization in the industrial sector in Poland. In Poland, the systematic long-term monitoring of air pollutants is generally restricted to rural point-source regions in urban areas. Even for those areas, air pollution emissions were not continually monitored and data is only available for the last decades. Tree ring series that present long-term data can be used to analyse the ecosystem changes, caused by human activities. The conifers investigated in this study have grown for many years under the stress of environmental contamination. We analysed the spatiotemporal distribution of growth reductions, the depth of reduction with respect to the distance from the emitter, the relationship between tree growth and radiocarbon and stable isotope composition and climate during the industry development period and during pro-ecological strategy application. Pines chronologies indicate that trees have a similar sensitivity to most climatic elements of the previous and given year, but there is also observed a different

  7. Evaluating Causes of Ecological Impairments in the Estuaries of Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ukrainian estuaries have not undergone a systematic evaluation of the causes of ecological impairments caused by anthropogenic contamination. The objective of this evaluation is to use recently developed diagnostic tools to determine the causes of benthic ecological impairments. ...

  8. Gulf of Mexico soundscapes as indicators of ecological stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidorovskaia, N.; Li, K.; Tiemann, C.; Ackleh, A. S.; Tang, T.; Risbourg, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    Soundscapes in the Northern Gulf of Mexico are complex and represent a combination of anthropogenic noise (oil exploration and production, shipping, rig construction, etc.), bio-soundscapes (sound of marine mammals and fish), and geo-soundscapes (weather events, submarine landslides, distant earthquakes, natural gas seeps). We will discuss how Passive Acoustic Monitoring in the deep Gulf has been utilized during the past decade to study the soundscape variability on daily, monthly, and yearly timescales and what environmental information can be extracted from this variability. Isolation of bio-soundscapes, identification of their sources, and abundance estimates based on acoustic cues are used to track the recovery of marine mammal species after major ecological disasters, such as the recent 2010 oil spill. Association of acoustic activity of marine species with anthropogenic noise levels and other environmental variables can provide base data that can be used to build ecological models of habitat preferences for different marine species. Understanding how the variability of anthropogenic soundscapes correlates with marine species distributions is critically important for regional conservation and mitigation strategies. Such studies can also assist in forecasting the long-term ecosystem health status and ecosystem response to disturbances of different spatial and temporal extent, including slow variations associated with climate change. [This research was made possible in part by a grant from The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative, and in part by funding provided by ONR and The Joint Industry Programme.

  9. The biological consequences of climate changes: An ecological and economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batie, S.S.; Shugart, H.H.

    1991-01-01

    The following subject areas are covered: (1) the level of climate change; (2) impacts of climate change on ecological systems (short-term (decadal), medium term (centenary), and long-term (millennial) effects); and (3) ecological consequences of climate change - evaluating the social costs (the problem of valuing consequences, intergenerational problem, and safe minimum standard strategies and policies)

  10. Future ecological studies of Brazilian headwater streams under global-changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Callisto

    Full Text Available This paper results from discussions triggered during the "Stream Ecology Symposium" that took place at the XIII Congress of the Brazilian Society of Limnology in September of 2011 in Natal, Brazil. Based on our experiences, we have raised several questions regarding ecological studies of headwater streams facing threats under global-changes and proposed numerous subjects to be addressed in future studies in Brazil. These studies deal with the necessity of knowing species biology and the elaboration of models to assess changes (which implies the availability of time-series or large-scale data sets; the ecology of riparian zones and the interchange of materials and energy across the land-water boundaries; forest conversions and standardized sampling strategies and data treatment to assess global change.

  11. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  12. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L Mann

    Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  13. Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeigler, Sara; Catlin, Daniel H.; Bomberger Brown, M.; Fraser, J.D.; Dinan, Lauren R.; Hunt, Kelsi L.; Jorgensen, Joel G.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

    2017-01-01

    Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval ~ 20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the

  14. Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Y

    2018-08-15

    The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km 2 between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km 2 /yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area

  15. Primate dental ecology: How teeth respond to the environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuozzo, Frank P; Ungar, Peter S; Sauther, Michelle L

    2012-06-01

    Teeth are central for the study of ecology, as teeth are at the direct interface between an organism and its environment. Recent years have witnessed a rapid growth in the use of teeth to understand a broad range of topics in living and fossil primate biology. This in part reflects new techniques for assessing ways in which teeth respond to, and interact with, an organism's environment. Long-term studies of wild primate populations that integrate dental analyses have also provided a new context for understanding primate interactions with their environments. These new techniques and long-term field studies have allowed the development of a new perspective-dental ecology. We define dental ecology as the broad study of how teeth respond to, or interact with, the environment. This includes identifying patterns of dental pathology and tooth use-wear, as they reflect feeding ecology, behavior, and habitat variation, including areas impacted by anthropogenic disturbance, and how dental development can reflect environmental change and/or stress. The dental ecology approach, built on collaboration between dental experts and ecologists, holds the potential to provide an important theoretical and practical framework for inferring ecology and behavior of fossil forms, for assessing environmental change in living populations, and for understanding ways in which habitat impacts primate growth and development. This symposium issue brings together experts on dental morphology, growth and development, tooth wear and health, primate ecology, and paleontology, to explore the broad application of dental ecology to questions of how living and fossil primates interact with their environments. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. How landscape ecology informs global land-change science and policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audrey L. Mayer; Brian Buma; Am??lie Davis; Sara A. Gagn??; E. Louise Loudermilk; Robert M. Scheller; Fiona K.A. Schmiegelow; Yolanda F. Wiersma; Janet Franklin

    2016-01-01

    Landscape ecology is a discipline that explicitly considers the influence of time and space on the environmental patterns we observe and the processes that create them. Although many of the topics studied in landscape ecology have public policy implications, three are of particular concern: climate change; land use–land cover change (LULCC); and a particular type of...

  17. Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition ameliorates the decline in tree growth caused by a drier climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Inés; Zak, Donald R; Burton, Andrew J; Pregitzer, Kurt S

    2018-02-01

    Most forest ecosystems are simultaneously affected by concurrent global change drivers. However, when assessing these effects, studies have mainly focused on the responses to single factors and have rarely evaluated the joined effects of the multiple aspects of environmental change. Here, we analyzed the combined effects of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic conditions on the radial growth of Acer saccharum, a dominant tree species in eastern North American forests. We capitalized on a long-term N deposition study, replicated along a latitudinal gradient, that has been taking place for more than 20 yr. We analyzed tree radial growth as a function of anthropogenic N deposition (ambient and experimental addition) and of summer temperature and soil water conditions. Our results reveal that experimental N deposition enhances radial growth of this species, an effect that was accentuated as temperature increased and soil water became more limiting. The spatial and temporal extent of our data also allowed us to assert that the positive effects of growing under the experimental N deposition are likely due to changes in the physiological performance of this species, and not due to the positive correlation between soil N and soil water holding capacity, as has been previously speculated in other studies. Our simulations of tree growth under forecasted climate scenarios specific for this region also revealed that although anthropogenic N deposition may enhance tree growth under a large array of environmental conditions, it will not mitigate the expected effects of growing under the considerably drier conditions characteristic of our most extreme climatic scenario. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  18. Ecological Carrying Capacity of Land Use Changes in Da'an City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Zhang, J.; Li, B.

    2018-04-01

    Based on GIS and RS technology, this paper analyzed the land use change in Da'an city from 1995 to 2010. land-use ecological evaluation index was constructed to evaluate the land-use ecological risk of Da 'an city dynamically, and the land-use ecological risk level map was made, and then the distribution and change of the land-use ecological carrying capacity pattern of Da'an city were analyzed qualitatively. According to the evaluation results of ecological carrying capacity, the ecological environment of Da'an city has deteriorated in fifteen years. in 1995, the poor ecological environment area is mainly distributed in the northeast area of Da'an city, and the area is small, while the area of the central and southern areas is large; In 2010, the western region also appeared environmental degradation, the northeast environment deterioration is serious, the dominant area is reduced, and a small amount of deterioration in the central and southern regions. According to the study of this paper, in the future, we should strengthen the comprehensive management of this part of the area, strengthen vegetation coverage, reduce soil erosion, ensure the effective improvement of ecological environment.

  19. Understanding protected area resilience: a multi-scale, social-ecological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumming, Graeme S.; Allen, Craig R.; Ban, Natalie C.; Biggs, Duan; Biggs, Harry C.; Cumming, David H.M; De Vos, Alta; Epstein, Graham; Etienne, Michel; Maciejewski, Kristine; Mathevet, Raphael; Moore, Christine; Nenadovic, Mateja; Schoon, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Protected areas (PAs) remain central to the conservation of biodiversity. Classical PAs were conceived as areas that would be set aside to maintain a natural state with minimal human influence. However, global environmental change and growing cross-scale anthropogenic influences mean that PAs can no longer be thought of as ecological islands that function independently of the broader social-ecological system in which they are located. For PAs to be resilient (and to contribute to broader social-ecological resilience), they must be able to adapt to changing social and ecological conditions over time in a way that supports the long-term persistence of populations, communities, and ecosystems of conservation concern. We extend Ostrom's social-ecological systems framework to consider the long-term persistence of PAs, as a form of land use embedded in social-ecological systems, with important cross-scale feedbacks. Most notably, we highlight the cross-scale influences and feedbacks on PAs that exist from the local to the global scale, contextualizing PAs within multi-scale social-ecological functional landscapes. Such functional landscapes are integral to understand and manage individual PAs for long-term sustainability. We illustrate our conceptual contribution with three case studies that highlight cross-scale feedbacks and social-ecological interactions in the functioning of PAs and in relation to regional resilience. Our analysis suggests that while ecological, economic, and social processes are often directly relevant to PAs at finer scales, at broader scales, the dominant processes that shape and alter PA resilience are primarily social and economic.

  20. Alternate Directed Anthropogenic Shifts in Genotype Result in Different Ecological Outcomes in Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch Fry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosalind A Leggatt

    Full Text Available Domesticated and growth hormone (GH transgenic salmon provide an interesting model to compare effects of selected versus engineered phenotypic change on relative fitness in an ecological context. Phenotype in domestication is altered via polygenic selection of traits over multiple generations, whereas in transgenesis is altered by a single locus in one generation. These established and emerging technologies both result in elevated growth rates in culture, and are associated with similar secondary effects such as increased foraging, decreased predator avoidance, and similar endocrine and gene expression profiles. As such, there is concern regarding ecological consequences should fish that have been genetically altered escape to natural ecosystems. To determine if the type of genetic change influences fitness components associated with ecological success outside of the culture environments they were produced for, we examined growth and survival of domesticated, transgenic, and wild-type coho salmon fry under different environmental conditions. In simple conditions (i.e. culture with unlimited food, transgenic fish had the greatest growth, while in naturalized stream tanks (limited natural food, with or without predators domesticated fish had greatest growth and survival of the three fish groups. As such, the largest growth in culture conditions may not translate to the greatest ecological effects in natural conditions, and shifts in phenotype over multiple rather than one loci may result in greater success in a wider range of conditions. These differences may arise from very different historical opportunities of transgenic and domesticated strains to select for multiple growth pathways or counter-select against negative secondary changes arising from elevated capacity for growth, with domesticated fish potentially obtaining or retaining adaptive responses to multiple environmental conditions not yet acquired in recently generated transgenic

  1. Ecological theories of systems and contextual change in medical education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellaway, Rachel H; Bates, Joanna; Teunissen, Pim W

    2017-12-01

    Contemporary medical practice is subject to many kinds of change, to which both individuals and systems have to respond and adapt. Many medical education programmes have their learners rotating through different training contexts, which means that they too must learn to adapt to contextual change. Contextual change presents many challenges to medical education scholars and practitioners, not least because of a somewhat fractured and contested theoretical basis for responding to these challenges. There is a need for robust concepts to articulate and connect the various debates on contextual change in medical education. Ecological theories of systems encompass a range of concepts of how and why systems change and how and why they respond to change. The use of these concepts has the potential to help medical education scholars explore the nature of change and understand the role it plays in affording as well as limiting teaching and learning. This paper, aimed at health professional education scholars and policy makers, explores a number of key concepts from ecological theories of systems to present a comprehensive model of contextual change in medical education to inform theory and practice in all areas of medical education. The paper considers a range of concepts drawn from ecological theories of systems, including biotic and abiotic factors, panarchy, attractors and repellers, basins of attraction, homeostasis, resilience, adaptability, transformability and hysteresis. Each concept is grounded in practical examples from medical education. Ecological theories of systems consider change and response in terms of adaptive cycles functioning at different scales and speeds. This can afford opportunities for systematic consideration of responses to contextual change in medical education, which in turn can inform the design of education programmes, activities, evaluations, assessments and research that accommodates the dynamics and consequences of contextual change.

  2. Ecology and control of the natural environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izrael, Y.A.

    1992-01-01

    The book is in three parts: comprehensive analysis and regulation of the environment; the principles of monitoring; and global ecological problems - critical anthropogenic effects. The third part has a section on anthropogenic effects on the atmosphere and climate, which include: the direct impact on the state of the atmosphere; impacts which alter the physical and chemical properties of the atmosphere, and in particular its radiation and electrical characteristics; the impact on the upper atmosphere which alters its characteristics and state; and factors affecting the characteristics of the underlying surface and changing its reflectivity, and also affecting the interaction between the elements of the climatic system. There is also a section on the transport of pollutants over long distances and the ecotoxicology of acid rain. Priority is given to the transport of SO 2 and its transformation products NO x and their transformation products heavy metals, pesticides and radioactive substances. 629 refs., 74 figs., 42 tabs

  3. Ecology of estuaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennish, M.J.

    1992-01-01

    Ecology of Estuaries: Anthropogenic Effects represents the most definitive and comprehensive source of reference information available on the human impact on estuarine ecosystems. The book discusses both acute and insidious pollution problems plaguing these coastal ecotones. It also provides a detailed examination of the deleterious and pervasive effects of human activities on biotic communities and sensitive habitat areas in estuaries. Specific areas covered include organic loading, oil pollution, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, chlorinated hydrocarbons, heavy metals, dredging and dredge-spoil disposal, radionuclides, as well as other contaminants and processes. The diverse components of these anthropogenic influences are assembled in an organized framework and presented in a clear and concise style that will facilitate their understanding

  4. Antibiotic contamination in a typical developing city in south China: occurrence and ecological risks in the Yongjiang River impacted by tributary discharge and anthropogenic activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Baoming; Zhang, Ruijie; Wang, Yinghui; Liu, Xiang; Li, Jun; Zhang, Gan

    2013-06-01

    The occurrence and distribution of ten selected antibiotics from three groups (sulfonamides, macrolides, and trimethoprim) were investigated in the Yongjiang River, which flows through Nanning City, a typical developing city in China. The study also assessed the ecological risks and the potential effects caused by discharge from tributaries and anthropogenic activities. Concentrations of most of the antibiotics were elevated along the section of the river in the urban area, highlighting the significant impact of high population density and human activities on the presence of antibiotics in the environment. The concentrations in the tributaries (ranged from not detected to 1336ngL(-1)) were generally higher than those in the main stream (ranged from not detected to 78.8ngL(-1)), but both areas contained the same predominant antibiotics, revealing the importance of tributary discharge as a source of antibiotic pollution. A risk assessment for the surface water contamination revealed that sulfamethoxazole and erythromycin posed high ecological risks to the most sensitive aquatic organisms (Synechococcus leopoliensis and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, respectively) in the midstream and some tributaries. Most of the selected antibiotics presented high ecological risks (risk quotients up to 95) in the sediments. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Anthropogenic mortality on coral reefs in Caribbean Panama predates coral disease and bleaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Katie L; Jackson, Jeremy B C; Angioletti, Christopher V; Leonard-Pingel, Jill; Guilderson, Thomas P

    2012-06-01

    Caribbean reef corals have declined precipitously since the 1980s due to regional episodes of bleaching, disease and algal overgrowth, but the extent of earlier degradation due to localised historical disturbances such as land clearing and overfishing remains unresolved. We analysed coral and molluscan fossil assemblages from reefs near Bocas del Toro, Panama to construct a timeline of ecological change from the 19th century-present. We report large changes before 1960 in coastal lagoons coincident with extensive deforestation, and after 1960 on offshore reefs. Striking changes include the demise of previously dominant staghorn coral Acropora cervicornis and oyster Dendrostrea frons that lives attached to gorgonians and staghorn corals. Reductions in bivalve size and simplification of gastropod trophic structure further implicate increasing environmental stress on reefs. Our paleoecological data strongly support the hypothesis, from extensive qualitative data, that Caribbean reef degradation predates coral bleaching and disease outbreaks linked to anthropogenic climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  6. Analyzing anthropogenic pressures in soils of agro-ecological protected coastal wetlands in L'Albufera de Valencia Natural Park, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascual-Aguilar, Juan Antonio; Andreu, Vicente; Gimeno, Eugenia; Picó, Yolanda

    2013-04-01

    Coastal wetlands, despite the importance of their environmental and ecological functions, are areas that suffer of great pressures. Most of them are produced by the rapid development of the surrounding artificial landscapes. Socio-economic factors such as population growth and urban-industrial surfaces expansion introduce pressures on the nearby environment affecting the quality of natural and agricultural landscapes. The present research analyses interconnections among landscapes (urban, agricultural and natural) under the hypothesis that urban-artificial impacts could be detected on soils of an agro-ecological protected area, L'Albufera de Valencia, Natural Park, located in the vicinity or the urban area of the City of Valencia, Spain. It has been developed based on Environmental Forensics criteria witch attend two types of anthropogenic pressures: (1) direct, due to artificialization of soil covers that produce anthropogenic soil sealing, and (2) indirect, which are related to water flows coming from urban populations throw artificial water networks (sewage and irrigation systems) and that ultimately will be identified by the presence of o emerging-pharmaceuticals contaminants in soils of the protected area. For the first case, soil sealing a methodology based on temporal comparison of two digital layers for the years 1991 and 2011 applying Geographical Information Systems and Landscapes Metrics were undertaken. To determine presence of emerging contaminants 15 soil samples within the Natural Park were analyzed applying liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry for the detection of 17 pharmaceutical compounds. Results show that both processes are present in the Natural Park with a clear geographical pattern. Either soil sealing or detection of pharmaceuticals are more intensive in the northern part of the study area. This is related to population density (detection of pharmaceuticals) and land cover conversion from agricultural and natural surfaces to

  7. Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian Martinuzzi; Gregorio I. Gavier-Pizarro; Ariel E. Lugo; Volker C. Radeloff

    2015-01-01

    Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate, and non-native species are altering environmental conditions, resulting in more novel communities with unprecedented species combinations. Understanding how future anthropogenic changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is important to advance environmental management and ecological research in the Anthropocene....

  8. Assessing Ecological Impacts According to Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, S.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Jeong, S. G.; Jin, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Land use patterns have changed by human activities, and it has affected the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, the conversion of forests into other land use has caused environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. The evaluation of species and their habitat can be preferentially considered to prevent or minimize the adverse effects of land use change. The objective of study is identifying the impacts of environmental conditions on forest ecosystems by comparing ecological changes with time series spatial data. Species distribution models were developed for diverse species with presence data and time-series environmental variables, which allowed comparison of the habitat suitability and connectivity. Habitat suitability and connectivity were used to estimate impacts of forest ecosystems due to land use change. Our result suggested that the size and degree of ecological impacts are were different depending on the properties of land use change. The elements and species were greatly affected by the land use change according to the results. This study suggested that a methodology for measuring the interference of land use change in species habitat and connectivity. Furthermore, it will help to conserve and manage forest by identifying priority conservation areas with influence factor and scale.

  9. Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site Ecological Monitoring Program 1995 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Ecological Monitoring Program (ECMP) was established at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Site) in September 1992. At that time, EcMP staff developed a Program Plan that was peer-reviewed by scientists from western universities before submittal to DOE RFFO in January 1993. The intent of the program is to measure several quantitative variables at different ecological scales in order to characterize the Rocky Flats ecosystem. This information is necessary to document ecological conditions at the Site in impacted and nonimpacted areas to determine if Site practices have had ecological impacts, either positive or negative. This information can be used by managers interested in future use scenarios and CERCLA activities. Others interested in impact analysis may also find the information useful. In addition, these measurements are entered into a database which will serve as a long-term information repository that will document long-term trends and potential future changes to the Site, both natural and anthropogenic

  10. Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site Ecological Monitoring Program 1995 annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-05-31

    The Ecological Monitoring Program (ECMP) was established at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Site) in September 1992. At that time, EcMP staff developed a Program Plan that was peer-reviewed by scientists from western universities before submittal to DOE RFFO in January 1993. The intent of the program is to measure several quantitative variables at different ecological scales in order to characterize the Rocky Flats ecosystem. This information is necessary to document ecological conditions at the Site in impacted and nonimpacted areas to determine if Site practices have had ecological impacts, either positive or negative. This information can be used by managers interested in future use scenarios and CERCLA activities. Others interested in impact analysis may also find the information useful. In addition, these measurements are entered into a database which will serve as a long-term information repository that will document long-term trends and potential future changes to the Site, both natural and anthropogenic.

  11. Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Gong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

  12. Effects of chronic anthropogenic disturbance and rainfall on the specialization of ant-plant mutualistic networks in the Caatinga, a Brazilian dry forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Câmara, Talita; Leal, Inara R; Blüthgen, Nico; Oliveira, Fernanda M P; Queiroz, Rubens T de; Arnan, Xavier

    2018-03-05

    . Our study highlights the vulnerability of such dry forest ant-plant networks to climate change. Moreover, dry forests experience highly heterogeneous anthropogenic disturbances, creating a geographic mosaic of selective forces that may shape the co-evolution of interactions between ants and EFN-bearing plants. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.

  13. Change of the Asian dust source region deduced from the composition of anthropogenic radionuclides in surface soil in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Igarashi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent climate change, especially during the 2000s, may be the primary reason for the expansion of the Asian dust source region. The change in the dust source region was investigated by examining anthropogenic radionuclides contained in surface soil samples from Mongolia. Surface soil was globally labeled by radioactive fallout from nuclear testing during the late 1950s and early 1960s, but there are no current direct sources for anthropogenic radionuclides in the air (before the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in 2011. Radionuclides in the atmosphere are therefore carried mainly by wind-blown dust from surface soil, that is, aeolian dust. Asian dust carries traces of 90Sr, 137Cs, and other anthropogenic radionuclides; the heaviest deposition occurs in spring and has been recorded in Japan since the early 1990s. The composition of anthropogenic radionuclides in atmospheric depositions would be affected by a change in the dust source. Previous studies of atmospheric deposition at long-term monitoring sites (e.g. in Tsukuba, Japan have detected changes in the 137Cs/90Sr ratio and in the specific activity of the radionuclides. These changes in the composition of observed atmospheric depositions are supposed to reflect changes in the climatic conditions of the dust source region. To investigate this dust source change, we conducted a field survey of radionuclides (90Sr and 137Cs in surface soil samples in September 2007 in the eastern and southern regions of Mongolia, where dust storms have occurred more frequently since 2000. The specific activities of both radionuclides as well as the 137Cs/90Sr ratio in the surface soil were well correlated with annual average precipitation in the Mongolian desert-steppe zone. Higher specific activities and a higher 137Cs/90Sr ratio were found in grassland regions that experienced greater

  14. Polychaete richness and abundance enhanced in anthropogenically modified estuaries despite high concentrations of toxic contaminants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine A Dafforn

    Full Text Available Ecological communities are increasingly exposed to multiple chemical and physical stressors, but distinguishing anthropogenic impacts from other environmental drivers remains challenging. Rarely are multiple stressors investigated in replicated studies over large spatial scales (>1000 kms or supported with manipulations that are necessary to interpret ecological patterns. We measured the composition of sediment infaunal communities in relation to anthropogenic and natural stressors at multiple sites within seven estuaries. We observed increases in the richness and abundance of polychaete worms in heavily modified estuaries with severe metal contamination, but no changes in the diversity or abundance of other taxa. Estuaries in which toxic contaminants were elevated also showed evidence of organic enrichment. We hypothesised that the observed response of polychaetes was not a 'positive' response to toxic contamination or a reduction in biotic competition, but due to high levels of nutrients in heavily modified estuaries driving productivity in the water column and enriching the sediment over large spatial scales. We deployed defaunated field-collected sediments from the surveyed estuaries in a small scale experiment, but observed no effects of sediment characteristics (toxic or enriching. Furthermore, invertebrate recruitment instead reflected the low diversity and abundance observed during field surveys of this relatively 'pristine' estuary. This suggests that differences observed in the survey are not a direct consequence of sediment characteristics (even severe metal contamination but are related to parameters that covary with estuary modification such as enhanced productivity from nutrient inputs and the diversity of the local species pool. This has implications for the interpretation of diversity measures in large-scale monitoring studies in which the observed patterns may be strongly influenced by many factors that covary with anthropogenic

  15. Natural and anthropogenic drivers of cultural change on Easter Island: Review and new insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rull, Valentí

    2016-10-01

    Easter Island (Rapa Nui) is a remote Pacific island known for its megalithic statues, the moai, built by an ancient culture which disappearance is still debated. Theories claiming for either self-destruction (ecocide) of this ancient culture or an eventual genocide after the European contact have been the most popular. Anthropogenic drivers have been traditionally preferred as causes of this major cultural shift, whereas climatic changes have been dismissed or underrated. However, the latest findings suggest that the topic is more complex than formerly thought and demand a more holistic perspective. This paper reviews the main paleoclimatic, paleoecological, archaeological and historical evidence of the major Rapanui cultural shift leading to the end of the moai-building civilization and uses an integrated approach to analyze its timing and potential causes. The disappearance of the ancient Eastern Island culture that erected the moai was a dramatic cultural shift with significant changes in lifestyle, socio-political organization, religious performance, art and also in the geographical settlement of the cultural core of the Rapanui society. The ancient society, represented by the so called Ancient Cult (or moai cult) was centered on the Rano Raraku crater, to the east of the island, whose soft volcanic rocks (tuff) where suitable for moai carving. This society was replaced by the Birdman-Cult society, based on Rano Kao, to the westernmost end of the island. The assumed date for such shift is uncertain ranging between mid-16th and late-18th centuries. It is suggested that such geographical change, as well as the associated societal transformations, may have been the result of a combination of climatic, ecological and cultural drivers and events. The latest paleoecological reconstructions show that the Rano Raraku catchment was deforested by AD 1450 and the lake inside dried out by AD 1550 owing to an intense climatic drought. This would have caused a landscape

  16. Features of anthropogenic changes in river hydrological parameters (for example Samara river.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovganenko D.A.

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Conducted attempt to analyze the nature of the mechanism of action of anthropogenic factors (in this case, mine water discharge to replace the water regime g. Samara. With typical river hydrographs built for the periods from 1952 to 1962 and from 1963 to 1975, revealed the instability of the spring floods, increased average long-term water consumption and increase the share of underground runoff. Approximately set the starting point changes the water regime of the river and found an association between increasing water inflow of mine water and increase average water discharge of Samara.

  17. Conventional and ecological public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rayner, G

    2009-09-01

    This paper suggests that current models of public health are no longer sufficient as a means for understanding the health challenges of the anthropogenic age, and argues for an alternative based upon an ecological model. The roots of this perspective originated within the Victorian era, although it found only limited expression at that time. Ecological thinking in public health has only been revived relatively recently. Derived from an analysis of obesity, this paper proposes the development of an approach to ecological public health based on four dimensions of existence: the material, the physiological, the social and the cultural-cognitive. The implications for public policy are considered.

  18. A GIS BASED EVALUATION OF LAND USE CHANGES AND ECOLOGICAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poppy Indrayani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the Makassar region is a significant land use planning and management issue, and has many impacts on the ecological function and structure landscape. With the development and infrastructure initiatives mostly around the urban centers, the urbanization and sprawl would impact the environment and the natural resources. Therefore, environmental management and careful strategic spatial planning in landscape ecological network is crucial when aiming for sustainable development. In this paper, the impacts of land use changes from 1997 to 2012 on the landscape ecological connectivity in the Makassar region were evaluated using Geographic Information System (GIS. The resulted GIS analysis clearly showed that land use changes occurring in the Makassar region have caused profound changes in landscape pattern. The spatial model had a predictive capability allowing the quantitative assessment and comparison of the impacts resulting from different land use on the ecological connectivity index. The results had an effective performance in identifying the vital ecological areas and connectivity prior to development plan in areas.

  19. Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine (Gulo gulo L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heim, Nicole; Fisher, Jason T; Clevenger, Anthony; Paczkowski, John; Volpe, John

    2017-11-01

    Contemporary landscapes are subject to a multitude of human-derived stressors. Effects of such stressors are increasingly realized by population declines and large-scale extirpation of taxa worldwide. Most notably, cumulative effects of climate and landscape change can limit species' local adaptation and dispersal capabilities, thereby reducing realized niche space and range extent. Resolving the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on species persistence is a pressing challenge in ecology, especially for declining species. For example, wolverines ( Gulo gulo L.) persist on only 40% of their historic North American range. While climate change has been shown to be a mechanism of range retractions, anthropogenic landscape disturbance has been recently implicated. We hypothesized these two interact to effect declines. We surveyed wolverine occurrence using camera trapping and genetic tagging at 104 sites at the wolverine range edge, spanning a 15,000 km 2 gradient of climate, topographic, anthropogenic, and biotic variables. We used occupancy and generalized linear models to disentangle the factors explaining wolverine distribution. Persistent spring snow pack-expected to decrease with climate change-was a significant predictor, but so was anthropogenic landscape change. Canid mesocarnivores, which we hypothesize are competitors supported by anthropogenic landscape change, had comparatively weaker effect. Wolverine population declines and range shifts likely result from climate change and landscape change operating in tandem. We contend that similar results are likely for many species and that research that simultaneously examines climate change, landscape change, and the biotic landscape is warranted. Ecology research and species conservation plans that address these interactions are more likely to meet their objectives.

  20. Coastal sediment elevation change following anthropogenic mangrove clearing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayden, Heather L.; Granek, Elise F.

    2015-11-01

    Coastal mangrove forests along tropical shorelines serve as an important interface between land and sea. They provide a physical buffer protecting the coastline from erosion and act as sediment "traps" catching terrestrial sediment, thus preventing smothering of subtidal coral reefs. Coastal development that removes mangrove habitat may impact adjacent nearshore coral reefs through sedimentation and nutrient loading. We examined differences in sediment elevation change between patches of open-coast intact and anthropogenically cleared red mangroves (Rhizophora mangle) on the east side of Turneffe Atoll, Belize, to quantify changes following mangrove clearing. Samples were collected over a 24 month period at five study sites, each containing paired intact (+mangrove) and cleared (-mangrove) plots. Five sediment elevation pins were deployed in each plot: behind areas cleared of mangroves (-mangrove) and behind adjacent intact mangroves (+mangrove). Sediment elevation increased at intact mangrove sites (M = +3.83 mm, SE = 0.95) whereas cleared mangrove areas suffered elevation loss (M = -7.30 mm, SE = 3.38). Mangroves inshore of partial or continuous gaps in the adjacent fringing reefs had higher rates of elevation loss (M = -15.05 mm) than mangroves inshore of continuous fringing reefs (M = -1.90 mm). Our findings provide information on potential effects of mangrove clearing and the role of offshore habitat characteristics on coastal sediment trapping and maintenance of sediment elevation by mangroves. With implications for coastline capacity to adjust to sea level rise, these findings are relevant to management of coastal fringing mangrove forests across the Caribbean.

  1. Can oceanic reanalyses be used to assess recent anthropogenic changes and low-frequency internal variability of upper ocean temperature?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corre, L.; Terray, L.; Weaver, A. [Cerfacs-CNRS, Toulouse (France); Balmaseda, M. [E.C.M.W.F, Reading (United Kingdom); Ribes, A. [CNRM-GAME, Meteo France-CNRS, Toulouse (France)

    2012-03-15

    A multivariate analysis of the upper ocean thermal structure is used to examine the recent long-term changes and decadal variability in the upper ocean heat content as represented by model-based ocean reanalyses and a model-independent objective analysis. The three variables used are the mean temperature above the 14 C isotherm, its depth and a fixed depth mean temperature (250 m mean temperature). The mean temperature above the 14 C isotherm is a convenient, albeit simple, way to isolate thermodynamical changes by filtering out dynamical changes related to thermocline vertical displacements. The global upper ocean observations and reanalyses exhibit very similar warming trends (0.045 C per decade) over the period 1965-2005, superimposed with marked decadal variability in the 1970s and 1980s. The spatial patterns of the regression between indices (representative of anthropogenic changes and known modes of internal decadal variability), and the three variables associated with the ocean heat content are used as fingerprint to separate out the different contributions. The choice of variables provides information about the local heat absorption, vertical distribution and horizontal redistribution of heat, this latter being suggestive of changes in ocean circulation. The discrepancy between the objective analysis and the reanalyses, as well as the spread among the different reanalyses, are used as a simple estimate of ocean state uncertainties. Two robust findings result from this analysis: (1) the signature of anthropogenic changes is qualitatively different from those of the internal decadal variability associated to the Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation, and (2) the anthropogenic changes in ocean heat content do not only consist of local heat absorption, but are likely related with changes in the ocean circulation, with a clear shallowing of the tropical thermocline in the Pacific and Indian oceans. (orig.)

  2. Possible influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds and anthropogenic forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Penner

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Cirrus clouds have a net warming effect on the atmosphere and cover about 30% of the Earth's area. Aerosol particles initiate ice formation in the upper troposphere through modes of action that include homogeneous freezing of solution droplets, heterogeneous nucleation on solid particles immersed in a solution, and deposition nucleation of vapor onto solid particles. Here, we examine the possible change in ice number concentration from anthropogenic soot originating from surface sources of fossil fuel and biomass burning, from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, and from aircraft that deposit their aerosols directly in the upper troposphere. We use a version of the aerosol model that predicts sulfate number and mass concentrations in 3-modes and includes the formation of sulfate aerosol through homogeneous binary nucleation as well as a version that only predicts sulfate mass. The 3-mode version best represents the Aitken aerosol nuclei number concentrations in the upper troposphere which dominated ice crystal residues in the upper troposphere. Fossil fuel and biomass burning soot aerosols with this version exert a radiative forcing of −0.3 to −0.4 Wm−2 while anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and aircraft aerosols exert a forcing of −0.01 to 0.04 Wm−2 and −0.16 to −0.12 Wm−2, respectively, where the range represents the forcing from two parameterizations for ice nucleation. The sign of the forcing in the mass-only version of the model depends on which ice nucleation parameterization is used and can be either positive or negative. The magnitude of the forcing in cirrus clouds can be comparable to the forcing exerted by anthropogenic aerosols on warm clouds, but this forcing has not been included in past assessments of the total anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate.

  3. Recent changes in anthropogenic reactive nitrogen compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andronache, Constantin

    2014-05-01

    Significant anthropogenic perturbations of the nitrogen cycle are the result of rapid population growth, with mounting need for food and energy production. The increase of reactive nitrogen compounds (such as NOx, HNO3, NH3, and N2O) has a significant impact on human health, environment, and climate. NOx emissions contribute to O3 chemistry, aerosol formation and acidic precipitation. Ammonia is a notable atmospheric pollutant that may deteriorate ecosystems and contribute to respiratory problems. It reacts with acidic gases to form aerosols or is deposited back to ecosystems. The application of fertilizers accounts for most of the N2O production, adding to greenhouse gas emissions. We analyze the change of some reactive nitrogen compounds based on observations, in eastern United States. Results show that the control of NOx and SO2 emissions over the last decades caused a significant decrease of acidic deposition. The nitrate deposition is highest in eastern US, while the ammonium ion concentration is highest in central US regions. Overall, the inorganic nitrogen wet deposition from nitrate and ammonium is enhanced in central, and eastern US. Research shows that sensitive ecosystems in northeastern regions exhibit a slow recovery from the accumulated effects of acidic deposition. Given the growing demand for nitrogen in agriculture and industry, we discuss possible pathways to reduce the impact of excess reactive nitrogen on the environment.

  4. Het verband tussen natuurlijke en anthropogene landschapsvormen, bezien vanuit de betrekkingen in grensmilieu’s

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwen, van Chr.G.

    1965-01-01

    The isomorphy of natural and anthropogeneous landscapes with regard to the environmental conditions in border areas The contact in space between opposite situations constitutes two main types of boundaries. The distinction of these two types offers a useful expedient in ecology. It may also clarify

  5. Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaud, Sabrina; Michaux, Jacques; Schmidt, Daniela N; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre; Mein, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

    2005-03-22

    Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of morphological evolution along both lineages and compare them to environmental trends. Climatic changes do not have a direct influence on evolution, but they open new ecological opportunities by changing vegetation and allow the evolution of a specialist like Stephanomys. On the other hand, environmental changes are not dramatic enough to destroy the habitat of a long-term generalist like Apodemus. Hence, our results exemplify a case of an influence of climate on the evolution of specialist species, although a generalist species may persist without change.

  6. Teaching Anthropogenic Climate Change through Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Helping Students Think Critically about Science and Ethics in Dialogue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Claire; O'Brien, Kevin J.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is a complicated issue involving scientific data and analyses as well as political, economic, and ethical issues. In order to capture this complexity, we developed an interdisciplinary student and faculty collaboration by (1) offering introductory lectures on scientific and ethical methods to two classes, (2) assigning…

  7. Diagnosing Disaster Resilience of Communities as Multi-scale Complex Socio-ecological Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wei; Mochizuki, Junko; Keating, Adriana; Mechler, Reinhard; Williges, Keith; Hochrainer, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Global environmental change, growing anthropogenic influence, and increasing globalisation of society have made it clear that disaster vulnerability and resilience of communities cannot be understood without knowledge on the broader social-ecological system in which they are embedded. We propose a framework for diagnosing community resilience to disasters, as a form of disturbance to social-ecological systems, with feedbacks from the local to the global scale. Inspired by iterative multi-scale analysis employed by Resilience Alliance, the related socio-ecological systems framework of Ostrom, and the sustainable livelihood framework, we developed a multi-tier framework for thinking of communities as multi-scale social-ecological systems and analyzing communities' disaster resilience and also general resilience. We highlight the cross-scale influences and feedbacks on communities that exist from lower (e.g., household) to higher (e.g., regional, national) scales. The conceptual framework is then applied to a real-world resilience assessment situation, to illustrate how key components of socio-ecological systems, including natural hazards, natural and man-made environment, and community capacities can be delineated and analyzed.

  8. Anthropogenic and ecological drivers of amphibian disease (ranavirosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra C North

    Full Text Available Ranaviruses are causing mass amphibian die-offs in North America, Europe and Asia, and have been implicated in the decline of common frog (Rana temporaria populations in the UK. Despite this, we have very little understanding of the environmental drivers of disease occurrence and prevalence. Using a long term (1992-2000 dataset of public reports of amphibian mortalities, we assess a set of potential predictors of the occurrence and prevalence of Ranavirus-consistent common frog mortality events in Britain. We reveal the influence of biotic and abiotic drivers of this disease, with many of these abiotic characteristics being anthropogenic. Whilst controlling for the geographic distribution of mortality events, disease prevalence increases with increasing frog population density, presence of fish and wild newts, increasing pond depth and the use of garden chemicals. The presence of an alternative host reduces prevalence, potentially indicating a dilution effect. Ranavirosis occurrence is associated with the presence of toads, an urban setting and the use of fish care products, providing insight into the causes of emergence of disease. Links between occurrence, prevalence, pond characteristics and garden management practices provides useful management implications for reducing the impacts of Ranavirus in the wild.

  9. Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valinia, Salar; Englund, Göran; Moldan, Filip; Futter, Martyn N; Köhler, Stephan J; Bishop, Kevin; Fölster, Jens

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality. © 2014 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Impact of Anthropogenic Factor on Urboecological Space Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuprina Tamara

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the issues of the impact of the anthropogenic factor on urboecological space development. The issues are considered taking into account retrospective theoretical data to show the process of Anthropoecology development as a new branch of sociological science. At present the noosphere acquires features of anthropoecosystems having a number of parameters from the endogenous and exogenous point of view. Anthropoecology has special socio-cultural significance as considers the interaction of all actors of international space. There introduced the new branch Ecopsycology as the outer world is the reflection of the inner human world. There is a definition of the sustainability of ecological system. In the practical part of the article there is an example of academic mobility as the basis of the human potential with possible transfer into the human capital supporting by survey data. In conclusion there are recommendations on management and adaptation of the anthropogenic factor (a kind of biogenesis in modern urboecological space.

  11. Timing anthropogenic stressors to mitigate their impact on marine ecosystem resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Paul Pao-Yen; Mengersen, Kerrie; McMahon, Kathryn; Kendrick, Gary A; Chartrand, Kathryn; York, Paul H; Rasheed, Michael A; Caley, M Julian

    2017-11-02

    Better mitigation of anthropogenic stressors on marine ecosystems is urgently needed to address increasing biodiversity losses worldwide. We explore opportunities for stressor mitigation using whole-of-systems modelling of ecological resilience, accounting for complex interactions between stressors, their timing and duration, background environmental conditions and biological processes. We then search for ecological windows, times when stressors minimally impact ecological resilience, defined here as risk, recovery and resistance. We show for 28 globally distributed seagrass meadows that stressor scheduling that exploits ecological windows for dredging campaigns can achieve up to a fourfold reduction in recovery time and 35% reduction in extinction risk. Although the timing and length of windows vary among sites to some degree, global trends indicate favourable windows in autumn and winter. Our results demonstrate that resilience is dynamic with respect to space, time and stressors, varying most strongly with: (i) the life history of the seagrass genus and (ii) the duration and timing of the impacting stress.

  12. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, Jr, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (USA). Inst. for Environmental Studies, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square metre, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes. 73 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  13. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

  14. Landscape anthropogenic disturbance in the Mediterranean ecosystem: is the current landscape sustainable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Guido; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo; Franciosi, Chiara; Lima, Marco

    2013-04-01

    Mediterranean landscape during the last centuries has been subject to strong anthropogenic disturbances who shifted natural vegetation cover in a cultural landscape. Most of the natural forest were destroyed in order to allow cultivation and grazing activities. In the last century, fast growing conifer plantations were introduced in order to increase timber production replacing slow growing natural forests. In addition, after the Second World War most of the grazing areas were changed in unmanaged mediterranean conifer forest frequently spread by fires. In the last decades radical socio economic changes lead to a dramatic abandonment of the cultural landscape. One of the most relevant result of these human disturbances, and in particular the replacement of deciduous forests with coniferous forests, has been the increasing in the number of forest fires, mainly human caused. The presence of conifers and shrubs, more prone to fire, triggered a feedback mechanism that makes difficult to return to the stage of potential vegetation causing huge economic, social and environmental damages. The aim of this work is to investigate the sustainability of the current landscape. A future landscape scenario has been simulated considering the natural succession in absence of human intervention assuming the current fire regime will be unaltered. To this end, a new model has been defined, implementing an ecological succession model coupled with a simply Forest Fire Model. The ecological succession model simulates the vegetation dynamics using a rule-based approach discrete in space and time. In this model Plant Functional Types (PFTs) are used to describe the landscape. Wildfires are randomly ignited on the landscape, and their propagation is simulated using a stochastic cellular automata model. The results show that the success of the natural succession toward a potential vegetation cover is prevented by the frequency of fire spreading. The actual landscape is then unsustainable

  15. Role of regression model selection and station distribution on the estimation of oceanic anthropogenic carbon change by eMLR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Plancherel

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake by monitoring interior dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC concentrations is complicated by the influence of natural variability. The "eMLR method" aims to address this issue by using empirical regression fits of the data instead of the data themselves, inferring the change in anthropogenic carbon in time by difference between predictions generated by the regressions at each time. The advantages of the method are that it provides in principle a means to filter out natural variability, which theoretically becomes the regression residuals, and a way to deal with sparsely and unevenly distributed data. The degree to which these advantages are realized in practice is unclear, however. The ability of the eMLR method to recover the anthropogenic carbon signal is tested here using a global circulation and biogeochemistry model in which the true signal is known. Results show that regression model selection is particularly important when the observational network changes in time. When the observational network is fixed, the likelihood that co-located systematic misfits between the empirical model and the underlying, yet unknown, true model cancel is greater, improving eMLR results. Changing the observational network modifies how the spatio-temporal variance pattern is captured by the respective datasets, resulting in empirical models that are dynamically or regionally inconsistent, leading to systematic errors. In consequence, the use of regression formulae that change in time to represent systematically best-fit models at all times does not guarantee the best estimates of anthropogenic carbon change if the spatial distributions of the stations emphasize hydrographic features differently in time. Other factors, such as a balanced and representative station coverage, vertical continuity of the regression formulae consistent with the hydrographic context and resiliency of the spatial distribution of the residual

  16. Landscape metrics application in ecological and visual landscape assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavrilović Suzana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of landscape-ecological approach application in spatial planning provides exact theoretical and empirical evidence for monitoring ecological consequences of natural and/or anthropogenic factors, particularly changes in spatial structures caused by them. Landscape pattern which feature diverse landscape values is the holder of the unique landscape character at different spatial levels and represents a perceptual domain for its users. Using the landscape metrics, the parameters of landscape composition and configuration are mathematical algorithms that quantify the specific spatial characteristics used for interpretation of landscape features and processes (physical and ecological aspect, as well as forms (visual aspect and the meaning (cognitive aspect of the landscape. Landscape metrics has been applied mostly in the ecological and biodiversity assessments as well as in the determination of the level of structural change of landscape, but more and more applied in the assessment of the visual character of the landscape. Based on a review of relevant literature, the aim of this work is to show the main trends of landscape metrics within the aspect of ecological and visual assessments. The research methodology is based on the analysis, classification and systematization of the research studies published from 2000 to 2016, where the landscape metrics is applied: (1 the analysis of landscape pattern and its changes, (2 the analysis of biodiversity and habitat function and (3 a visual landscape assessment. By selecting representative metric parameters for the landscape composition and configuration, for each category is formed the basis for further landscape metrics research and application for the integrated ecological and visual assessment of the landscape values. Contemporary conceptualization of the landscape is seen holistically, and the future research should be directed towards the development of integrated landscape assessment

  17. Characterizing the anthropogenic signature in the LCLU dynamics in the Central Asia region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatarskii, V.; Sokolik, I. N.; de Beurs, K.; Shiklomanov, A. I.

    2017-12-01

    Humans have been changing the LCLU dynamics over time through the world. In the Central Asia region, these changes have been especially pronounced due to the political and economic transformation. We present a detailed analysis, focusing on identifying and quantifying the anthropogenic signature in the water and land use across the region. We have characterized the anthropogenic dust emission by combining the modeling and observations. The model is a fully coupled model called WRF-Chem-DuMo that takes explicitly into account the vegetation treatment in modeling the dust emission. We have reconstructed the anthropogenic dust sources in the region, such as the retreat of the Aral Sea, changes in agricultural fields, etc. In addition, we characterize the anthropogenic water use dynamics, including the changes in the water use for the agricultural production. Furthermore, we perform an analysis to identify the anthropogenic signature in the NDVI pattern. The NDVI were analyzed in conjunction with the meteorological fields that were simulated at the high special resolution using the WRF model. Meteorological fields of precipitation and temperature were used for the correlation analysis to separate the natural vs. anthropogenic changes. In this manner, we were able to identify the regions that have been affected by human activities. We will present the quantitative assessment of the anthropogenic changes. The diverse consequences for the economy of the region, as well as, the environment will be addressed.

  18. Integral statistical eco-indices - effective complementary tool for assessment of ecological state of and ecological risks for water ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashamkova, I

    2010-01-01

    Eco-indices are successfully used for assessment of the ecological state and risks of water reservoirs. They allow, already at early stages, to detect negative effects on water ecosystems caused by progressive anthropogenic impacts and widening of the spectrum of pollutants, and to quantitatively evaluate ecological risks and damage for water reservoirs. Implementing these modern tools to water quality assessment is one of the lines to make decisions concerning challenging environmental problems.

  19. Biodiversity and its informative value in evaluation of localities under anthropogenic stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dusek, L.; Jarkovsky, J.; Hodovsky, J.; Zahradkova, S.; Brabec, K.; Gelnar, M.; Andel, P.

    2003-01-01

    Biomonitoring of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems became a frequent and valuable approach that is widely recognized as a necessary supplement to still more standard chemical monitoring programmes. Biomonitoring implies bioindication of changes that are routinely viewed as negative changes in biological systems due to the influence of stress factors, mostly of anthropogenic origin. Although there are an increasing number of scientific papers devoted to bioindication at the level of individual species or individual specimen (toxicity and genotoxicity testing, biomarkers etc.), complex biomonitoring at the ecosystem level seems to be rather difficult to manage and interpret. Although biodiversity is one of the central themes of ecology and ecotoxicology as well, there is still considerable disagreement in methodology of its comprehensive evaluation. Here we are presenting several approaches to biodiversity evaluation and results interpretation. Conclusions on methodology and interpretation are made on two sets of data - fish parasites under different environmental conditions and a lichen community under emission loading. We can conclude that biodiversity (community composition and structure) analysis could be used for: i) Retrospective bioindication, where it represents indication of complex changes, sensitive early warning, and indication with long-term memory, and/ or ii) prospective assessment, where it represents ecosystem health and stability. Best results are obtained when the biological community is stratified in order to reach environmentally reasonable units; and, these bioindicative components of the community are necessary for effective monitoring plans or ecological risk assessment studies. (authors)

  20. Estimation of water storage changes in small endorheic lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (Northern Kazakhstan, Central Asia); the effect of climate change and anthropogenic influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yapiyev, Vadim; Sagintayev, Zhanay; Verhoef, Anne; Samarkhanov, Kanat; Jumassultanova, Saltanat

    2017-04-01

    Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. It has been observed in recent decades that water-limited steppe regions of Central Asia are among ecosystems found to exhibit enhanced responses to climate variability. In fact, the largest share of worldwide net loss of permanent water extent is geographically concentrated in the Central Asia and Middle East regions attributed to both climate variability/change and human activities impacts. We used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and high resolution Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia, for the period 2000-2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, hydrometeorological network observations as well as regional climate model projections we evaluate the impacts of past thirty years and future climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. The anthropogenic water consumption was estimated based on data collected at a local water supply company and regulation authorities. One the one hand historical in-situ observations and future climate projections do not show a significant change in precipitation in BNNP. On the other hand both observations and the model demonstrate steadily rising air temperatures in the area. It is concluded that the long-term decline in water levels for most of these lakes can be largely attributed to climate change (but only via changes in air temperature, causing evaporation to exceed precipitation) and not to direct anthropogenic influences such as increased water withdrawals. In addition, the two largest lakes, showing the highest historical water level decline, do not have sufficient water drainage basin area to sustain water levels under increased evaporation rates.

  1. Changing communication ecologies in rural, peri-urban and urban Kenya

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Poul Erik; Gustafsson, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    This article aims to discuss changing media ecologies in rural, peri-urban and urban Kenya. The article is based on a comprehensive baseline study of 800 households carried out in October 2014 in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya. The survey recorded media access and use and civic engagement as well...... as demographic data. The findings suggest that media ecologies in rural, peri-urban as well as urban Kenya have undergone dramatic changes. The much hyped and unprecedented spread of mobile telephony has taken place simultaneously with the introduction of or increased access to radio and television including...... satellite television. Different emerging communication ecologies can be identified often with radio providing a solid foundation and in different ways combined with television and mobile phones. Even though mobile ownership, for example, has increased in all segments and areas, gender inequalities...

  2. Evaluating social and ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua E Cinner

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need to evaluate the links between the social and ecological dimensions of human vulnerability to climate change. We use an empirical case study of 12 coastal communities and associated coral reefs in Kenya to assess and compare five key ecological and social components of the vulnerability of coastal social-ecological systems to temperature induced coral mortality [specifically: 1 environmental exposure; 2 ecological sensitivity; 3 ecological recovery potential; 4 social sensitivity; and 5 social adaptive capacity]. We examined whether ecological components of vulnerability varied between government operated no-take marine reserves, community-based reserves, and openly fished areas. Overall, fished sites were marginally more vulnerable than community-based and government marine reserves. Social sensitivity was indicated by the occupational composition of each community, including the importance of fishing relative to other occupations, as well as the susceptibility of different fishing gears to the effects of coral bleaching on target fish species. Key components of social adaptive capacity varied considerably between the communities. Together, these results show that different communities have relative strengths and weaknesses in terms of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change.

  3. Political Ecology, Island Tourism Planning, and Climate Change Adaptation on Boracay, Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgilio Maguigad

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This research paper presents a case study of the island of Boracay, Philippines, utilising a political ecology approach to climate change adaptation. The research finds that the island’s political ecology, especially the relationships among stakeholders, is strained. This creates challenges for various urban planning processes that require good working relationships. Climate change is expected to highlight these divisions as interactions among stakeholders (fulfilling zoning ordinance obligations, climate change adaptation- compliant land use plans, etc. are dependent on good stakeholder relations. Stakeholders realise that climate change is real and that sea level rise is already challenging existing zoning ordinances on urban beach development. However, this realisation must be integrated into political decision-making processes involving tourism stakeholders. The research also shows that the political ecology approach and methodology is applicable to studying the dynamics of climate change adaptation and tourism urbanisation on small islands.

  4. Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Archer

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Methane frozen into hydrate makes up a large reservoir of potentially volatile carbon below the sea floor and associated with permafrost soils. This reservoir intuitively seems precarious, because hydrate ice floats in water, and melts at Earth surface conditions. The hydrate reservoir is so large that if 10% of the methane were released to the atmosphere within a few years, it would have an impact on the Earth's radiation budget equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric CO2.

    Hydrates are releasing methane to the atmosphere today in response to anthropogenic warming, for example along the Arctic coastline of Siberia. However most of the hydrates are located at depths in soils and ocean sediments where anthropogenic warming and any possible methane release will take place over time scales of millennia. Individual catastrophic releases like landslides and pockmark explosions are too small to reach a sizable fraction of the hydrates. The carbon isotopic excursion at the end of the Paleocene has been interpreted as the release of thousands of Gton C, possibly from hydrates, but the time scale of the release appears to have been thousands of years, chronic rather than catastrophic.

    The potential climate impact in the coming century from hydrate methane release is speculative but could be comparable to climate feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere and from peat, significant but not catastrophic. On geologic timescales, it is conceivable that hydrates could release as much carbon to the atmosphere/ocean system as we do by fossil fuel combustion.

  5. The human footprint in the west: a large-scale analysis of anthropogenic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leu, M.; Hanser, S.E.; Knick, S.T.

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenic features such as urbanization, roads, and power lines, are increasing in western United States landscapes in response to rapidly growing human populations. However, their spatial effects have not been evaluated. Our goal was to model the human footprint across the western United States. We first delineated the actual area occupied by anthropogenic features, the physical effect area. Next, we developed the human footprint model based on the ecological effect area, the zone influenced by features beyond their physical presence, by combining seven input models: three models quantified top-down anthropogenic influences of synanthropic predators (avian predators, domestic dog and cat presence risk), and four models quantified bottom-up anthropogenic influences on habitat (invasion of exotic plants, human-caused fires, energy extraction, and anthropogenic wildland fragmentation). Using independent bird population data, we found bird abundance of four synanthropic species to correlate positively with human footprint intensity and negatively for three of the six species influenced by habitat fragmentation. We then evaluated the extent of the human footprint in relation to terrestrial (ecoregions) and aquatic systems (major rivers and lakes), regional management and conservation status, physical environment, and temporal changes in human actions. The physical effect area of anthropogenic features covered 13% of the western United States with agricultural land (9.8%) being most dominant. High-intensity human footprint areas (class 8–10) overlapped highly productive low-elevation private landholdings and covered 7% of the western United States compared to 48% for low-intensity areas (class 1–3), which were confined to low-productivity high-elevation federal landholdings. Areas within 1 km of rivers were more affected by the human footprint compared to lakes. Percentage human population growth was higher in low-intensity human footprint areas. The

  6. Global albedo change and radiative cooling from anthropogenic land cover change, 1700 to 2005 based on MODIS, land use harmonization, radiative kernels, and reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, Bardan; Williams, Christopher A.; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Wang, Zhuosen; Schaaf, Crystal; He, Tao

    2014-12-01

    Widespread anthropogenic land cover change over the last five centuries has influenced the global climate system through both biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Models indicate that warming from carbon emissions associated with land cover conversion has been partially offset by cooling from elevated albedo, but considerable uncertainty remains partly because of uncertainty in model treatments of albedo. This study incorporates a new spatially and temporally explicit, land cover specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product) to provide more precise, observationally derived estimates of albedo impacts from anthropogenic land cover change with a complete range of data set specific uncertainty. The mean annual global albedo increase due to land cover change during 1700-2005 was estimated as 0.00106 ± 0.00008 (mean ± standard deviation), mainly driven by snow exposure due to land cover transitions from natural vegetation to agriculture. This translates to a top-of-atmosphere radiative cooling of -0.15 ± 0.1 W m-2 (mean ± standard deviation). Our estimate was in the middle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report range of -0.05 to -0.25 W m-2 and incorporates variability in albedo within land cover classes.

  7. Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Jung, Jaegun; Kumar, Naresh; Yarwood, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Estimates of North American and US Background (NAB and USB) ozone (O3) are critical in setting and implementing the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and therefore influence population exposure to O3 across the US. NAB is defined as the O3 concentration in the absence of anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions from North America whereas USB excludes anthropogenic emissions inside the US alone. NAB and USB vary geographically and with time of year. Analyses of O3 trends at rural locations near the west coast suggest that background O3 is rising in response to increasing non-US emissions. As the O3 NAAQS is lowered, rising background O3 would make attaining the NAAQS more difficult. Most studies of changing US background O3 have inferred trends from observations whereas air quality management decisions tend to rely on models. Thus, it is important that the models used to develop O3 management strategies are able to represent the changes in background O3 in order to increase confidence that air quality management strategies will succeed. We focus on how changing global emissions influence USB rather than the effects of inter-annual meteorological variation or long-term climate change. We use a regional model (CAMx) nested within a global model (GEOS-Chem) to refine our grid resolution over high terrain in the western US and near US borders where USB tends to be higher. We determine USB from CAMx simulations that exclude US anthropogenic emissions. Over five decades, from 1970 to 2020, estimated USB for the annual fourth highest maximum daily 8-h average O3 (H4MDA8) in the western US increased from mostly in the range of 40-55 ppb to 45-60 ppb, but remained below 45 ppb in the eastern US. USB increases in the southwestern US are consistent with rising emissions in Asia and Mexico. USB decreases in the northeast US after 1990 follow declining Canadian emissions. Our results show that the USB increases both for the top 30 MDA8 days and the H4MDA8 (the former

  8. Simulating ecological changes caused by marine energy devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuchert, Pia; Elsaesser, Bjoern; Pritchard, Daniel; Kregting, Louise

    2015-04-01

    Marine renewable energy from wave and tidal technology has the potential to contribute significantly globally to energy security for future generations. However common to both tidal and wave energy extraction systems is concern regarding the potential environmental consequences of the deployment of the technology as environmental and ecological effects are so far poorly understood. Ecological surveys and studies to investigate the environmental impacts are time consuming and costly and are generally reactive; a more efficient approach is to develop 2 and 3D linked hydrodynamic-ecological modelling which has the potential to be proactive and to allow forecasting of the effects of array installation. The objective of the study was to explore tools which can help model and evaluate possible far- and near field changes in the environment and ecosystem caused by the introduction of arrays of marine energy devices. Using the commercial software, MIKE by DHI, we can predict and model possible changes in the ecosystem. MIKE21 and ECOLab modelling software provide the opportunity to couple high level hydrodynamic models with process based ecological models and/or agent based models (ABM). The flow solutions of the model were determined in an idealised tidal basin with the dimensions similar to that of Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen. In the first instance a simple process oriented ecological NPZD model was developed which are used to model marine and freshwater systems describing four state variables, Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton and Detritus. The ecological model was run and evaluated under two hydrodynamic scenarios of the idealised basin. This included no tidal turbines (control) and an array of 55 turbines, an extreme scenario. Whilst an array of turbines has an effect on the hydrodynamics of the Lough, it is unlikely to see an extreme effect on the NPZD model

  9. Ecological drivers of shark distributions along a tropical coastline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M Yates

    Full Text Available As coastal species experience increasing anthropogenic pressures there is a growing need to characterise the ecological drivers of their abundance and habitat use, and understand how they may respond to changes in their environment. Accordingly, fishery-independent surveys were undertaken to investigate shark abundance along approximately 400 km of the tropical east coast of Australia. Generalised linear models were used to identify ecological drivers of the abundance of immature blacktip Carcharhinus tilstoni/Carcharhinus limbatus, pigeye Carcharhinus amboinensis, and scalloped hammerhead Sphyrna lewini sharks. Results indicated general and species-specific patterns in abundance that were characterised by a range of abiotic and biotic variables. Relationships with turbidity and salinity were similar across multiple species, highlighting the importance of these variables in the functioning of communal shark nurseries. In particular, turbid environments were especially important for all species at typical oceanic salinities. Mangrove proximity, depth, and water temperature were also important; however, their influence varied between species. Ecological drivers may promote spatial diversity in habitat use along environmentally heterogeneous coastlines and may therefore have important implications for population resilience.

  10. Ecological drivers of shark distributions along a tropical coastline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Peter M; Heupel, Michelle R; Tobin, Andrew J; Simpfendorfer, Colin A

    2015-01-01

    As coastal species experience increasing anthropogenic pressures there is a growing need to characterise the ecological drivers of their abundance and habitat use, and understand how they may respond to changes in their environment. Accordingly, fishery-independent surveys were undertaken to investigate shark abundance along approximately 400 km of the tropical east coast of Australia. Generalised linear models were used to identify ecological drivers of the abundance of immature blacktip Carcharhinus tilstoni/Carcharhinus limbatus, pigeye Carcharhinus amboinensis, and scalloped hammerhead Sphyrna lewini sharks. Results indicated general and species-specific patterns in abundance that were characterised by a range of abiotic and biotic variables. Relationships with turbidity and salinity were similar across multiple species, highlighting the importance of these variables in the functioning of communal shark nurseries. In particular, turbid environments were especially important for all species at typical oceanic salinities. Mangrove proximity, depth, and water temperature were also important; however, their influence varied between species. Ecological drivers may promote spatial diversity in habitat use along environmentally heterogeneous coastlines and may therefore have important implications for population resilience.

  11. [Effects of land use structure change on regional ecological health--taking Shapingba County as an example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Cheng; Wei, Chaofu; Gao, Ming; Luo, Guanglian; Jiang, Wei

    2005-12-01

    Land resource is the carrier for the exchange of matter, energy and information flows, while the change velocity and the intensity of land use has strong effects on the ecological processes such as matter circulation, energy flow, and biologic diversity. Land use structure change will alter the type, area, and spatial distribution of ecosystem, and in the meantime, result in the changes of regional ecological health. Employing the principles and methods of landscape ecology, and through endowing relative ecological value to land use type, this paper analyzed the charaeteristics of recent 10 years land use change in Shapingba County of Chongqing, and discussed the effects of land use change on regional ecological health, aimed to provide scientific references for land use planning and sustainable land resource utilization. The results indicated that transformation often occurred among different land use types, and the land use structure in each transformation phase differed quite obviously. Under different land use structure, there was a great disparity in relative ecological value of sub-ecosystems, which played various roles in regional ecological health. In general, the regional relative ecological value embodied both increase and decrease. In the future, the relative ecological value of sub-ecosystem would represent three tendencies, i.e., increase first and decrease then, continuous decrease, and continuous increase. The situation of regional ecological health would gradually become better.

  12. Ecological risk caused by land use change in the coastal zone: a case study in the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di, X H; Wang, Y D; Hou, X Y

    2014-01-01

    China's coastal zone plays an important role in ecological services production and social-economic development; however, extensive and intensive land resource utilization and land use change have lead to high ecological risk in this area during last decade. Regional ecological risk assessment can provide fundamental knowledge and scientific basis for better understanding of the relationship between regional landscape ecosystem and human activities or climate changes, facilitating the optimization strategy of land use structure and improving the ecological risk prevention capability. In this paper, the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone is selected as the study site, which is undergoing a new round of coastal zone exploitation and has endured substantial land use change in the past decade. Land use maps of 2000, 2005 and 2010 were generated based on Landsat images by visual interpretation method, and the ecological risk index was then calculated. The index was 0.3314, 0.3461 and 0.3176 in 2000, 2005 and 2010 respectively, which showed a positive transition of regional ecological risk in 2005

  13. Middle School Students' Understandings About Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, B. W.

    2013-12-01

    they discussed the validation of their beliefs. That is, we argue that the unit, and the emphases contained within the unit, resulted in the "epistemic scaffolding" of their ideas, to the extent that they shifted from arguing from anecdotes to arguing based on other types of data, especially from line graphs. Additionally, we found that students' understandings of climate change were tied to their ontological constructions of the subject matter, i.e., many perceived climate change as just another environmentally sensitive issue such as littering and pollution, and were therefore limited in their ability to understand anthropogenic climate change in the vast and robust sense meant by current scientific consensus. Given these known difficulties, it is critical to explore further research of this sort in order to better understand what students are actually thinking, and how that thinking is prone to change, modification, or not. Subsequently, K-12 strategies might be better designed, if that is indeed a priority of US/Western society.

  14. Urban Cholera and Water Sustainability Challenges under Climatic and Anthropogenic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Faruque, A. G.; Colwell, R. R.

    2013-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city of the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the developing world, especially those located in coastal regions of the tropics remain vulnerable to similar. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with changes in related climatic, environmental, or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or societal factors: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera incidence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend seem to be more epidemic in nature. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements that have negligible to poor water and sanitation systems compounded by increasing frequency of record flood events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of spring outbreaks, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the region.

  15. Landscape Ecological Risk Responses to Land Use Change in the Luanhe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Land use change has large effects on natural ecosystems, which is considered to be the main factor in eco-environment change. We analyzed the future characters of land use change by the CLUE-S model and explored landscape ecological risk responses to land use change by the landscape ecological risk index method. Using the Luanhe River Basin as a case study, we simulated future land use change from 2010 to 2030 under 3 scenarios (i.e., trend, high economic growth, and ecological security, and identified the hotspots of land use change. Afterward, we quantitatively investigated the degree of land use development and landscape ecological risk patterns that have occured since 2000 and that are expected to occur until 2030. Results revealed that, under the three scenarios, construction land and forest are expanding mainly at the expense of agriculture land and grassland. The hotspots of land use change are located in the vicinity of Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District of Chengde City in the midstream of the Luanhe River Basin, where urbanization has been strong since 2000 and is projected to continue that way until 2030. During this time period, hotspots of land use development have been gradually transferring from the downstream to the midstream since 2000 and, again, is expected to continue that way until 2030, which will impact the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risk. We found that the landscape ecological risk of the entire basin has shown a negative trend. However, a few areas still have serious ecological risk, which are mainly located in the east of upstream (Duolun County and Weichang County, the middle region (Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District, Chengde County, and Xinglong County, and the downstream (Qinglong County. These can provide key information for land use management, and for helping to prepare future eco-environmental policies in the Luanhe River Basin.

  16. Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Brown, Christopher J.

    2015-12-10

    Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global dataset of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that: (1) re-analyses of existing time-series state how the existing datasets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates and; (4) that new time series be designed to include detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the

  17. Time for a change: dynamic urban ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalho, Cristina E; Hobbs, Richard J

    2012-03-01

    Contemporary cities are expanding rapidly in a spatially complex, non-linear manner. However, this form of expansion is rarely taken into account in the way that urbanization is classically assessed in ecological studies. An explicit consideration of the temporal dynamics, although frequently missing, is crucial in order to understand the effects of urbanization on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in rapidly urbanizing landscapes. In particular, a temporal perspective highlights the importance of land-use legacies and transient dynamics in the response of biodiversity to environmental change. Here, we outline the essential elements of an emerging framework for urban ecology that incorporates the characteristics of contemporary urbanization and thus empowers ecologists to understand and intervene in the planning and management of cities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce

  19. Exploring dust emission responses to land cover change using an ecological land classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galloza, Magda S.; Webb, Nicholas P.; Bleiweiss, Max P.; Winters, Craig; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Ayers, Eldon

    2018-06-01

    Despite efforts to quantify the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion, assessment uncertainty remains large. We address this uncertainty by evaluating the application of ecological site concepts and state-and-transition models (STMs) for detecting and quantitatively describing the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion. We apply a dust emission model over a rangeland study area in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, New Mexico, USA, and evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of modelled horizontal sediment mass flux and dust emission in the context of ecological sites and their vegetation states; representing a diversity of land cover types. Our results demonstrate how the impacts of land cover change on dust emission can be quantified, compared across land cover classes, and interpreted in the context of an ecological model that encapsulates land management intensity and change. Results also reveal the importance of established weaknesses in the dust model soil characterisation and drag partition scheme, which appeared generally insensitive to the impacts of land cover change. New models that address these weaknesses, coupled with ecological site concepts and field measurements across land cover types, could significantly reduce assessment uncertainties and provide opportunities for identifying land management options.

  20. Climate change: Implications for water and ecological resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wall, G.; Sanderson, M.

    1990-01-01

    A conference was held to discuss the implications of climate change on water and ecological resources. The meeting consisted of a number of plenary sessions, luncheon speeches, an open forum, and five workshops. Presentations concerned regional and global issues, climate modelling, international aspects of climate change, water resources supply and demand, wetlands, wildlife and fisheries, agriculture and forests, and conservation strategies. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 32 presentations from the conference

  1. Climate-driven changes in the ecological stoichiometry of aquatic ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Waal, D.B.; Verschoor, A.M.; Verspagen, J.M.H.; van Donk, E.; Huisman, J.

    2010-01-01

    Advances in ecological stoichiometry, a rapidly expanding research field investigating the elemental composition of organisms and their environment, have shed new light on the impacts of climate change on freshwater and marine ecosystems. Current changes in the Earth's climate alter the availability

  2. Celtic field agriculture and Early Anthropogenic Environmental change in the Meuse-Demer-Scheldt region, NW Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Sanden, Germaine; Kluiving, Sjoerd; Roymans, Nico

    2016-04-01

    The field of Archaeology remains focused on historical issues while underexploring its potential contribution on currently existing societal problems, e.g. climate change. The aim of this paper is to show the relevance of archeological studies for the research of the 'human species as a significant moving agent' in terms of the changing natural environment during a much earlier time frame. This research is based on the study area of the Meuse-Demer-Scheldt region in the Netherlands and Belgium and exhibits the period from the Late Bronze Age to the Early Roman period. This period is characterized by the widespread introduction and use of an agricultural system, often referred to as the Celtic Field system that served as one of the most modifying systems in terms of anthropogenic-environmental change during this period. Emphasis in this research is given to results generated by the use of the remote sensing technology, LiDAR. New information is reported considering a correlation between singular field size and the overall surface of the agricultural complexes and secondly, the presentation of newly identified Celtic field systems in the Meuse-Demer-Scheldt region are presented. The study of the dynamics of the Celtic Field agricultural system provides evidence for a significant anthropogenic footprint on the natural environment due to land cover dominance, soil degeneration, increased soil acidification and forest clearance. Soil exhaustion forced the inhabitants to re-establish their relationship with the landscape in terms of fundamental changes in the habitation pattern and the agrarian exploitations of the land.

  3. Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurance, William F.

    2004-01-01

    This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors that affect trajectories of forest regeneration and carbon sequestration on abandoned lands. Extrapolating results from local studies of biomass dynamics in fragmented and regenerating forests to landscape and regional scales in Amazonia, using remote sensing and GIS. Testing the hypothesis that intact Amazonian forests are functioning as a significant carbon sink. Examining destructive synergisms between forest fragmentation and fire. Assessing the short-term impacts of selective logging on aboveground biomass. Developing GIS models that integrate current spatial data on forest cover, deforestation, logging, mining, highway and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wild fires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the future condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests over the next 20-25 years. Devising predictive spatial models to assess the influence of varied biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on Amazonian deforestation.

  4. Monitoring long-term ecological changes through the Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network: science-based and policy relevant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, H; Brydges, T; Fenech, A; Lumb, A

    2001-01-01

    Ecological monitoring and its associated research programs have often provided answers to various environmental management issues. In the face of changing environmental conditions, ecological monitoring provides decision-makers with reliable information as they grapple with maintaining a sustainable economy and healthy environment. The Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network (EMAN) is a national ecological monitoring network consisting of (1) about 100 case study sites across the country characterized by long-term multi-disciplinary environmental work conducted by a multitude of agencies (142 partners and counting); (2) a variety of less comprehensive yet more extensive monitoring sites; (3) a network where core monitoring variables of ecosystem change are measured; and (4) geo-referenced environmental observations. Environment Canada is the co-ordinating partner for the network through the EMAN Co-ordinating Office. EMAN's mission is to focus a scientifically-sound, policy-relevant ecosystem monitoring and research network based on (a) stabilizing a network of case-study sites operated by a variety of partners, and (b) developing a number of cooperative dispersed monitoring initiatives in order to deliver unique and needed goods and services. These goods and services include: (1) an efficient and cost-effective early warning system which detects, describes and reports on changes in Canadian ecosystems at a national or ecozone scale; and (2) cross-disciplinary and cross-jurisdictional assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes. The early warning system and assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes provide Environment Canada and partner organizations with timely information that facilitates increasingly adaptive policies and priority setting. Canadians are also informed of changes and trends occurring in Canadian ecosystems and, as a result, are better able to make decisions related to conservation and sustainability.

  5. Effect of coupled anthropogenic perturbations on stratospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Luther, F.M.; Penner, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    Since 1976 the greatest concern about potential perturbations to stratospheric ozone has been in regard to the atmospheric release of chlorofluorocarbons. Consequently, atmospheric measurements of ozone have usually been compared with model calculations in which only chlorocarbon perturbations are considered. However, in order to compare theoretical calculations with recent measurements of ozone and to project expected changes to atmospheric ozone levels over the next few decades, one must consider the effect from other perturbations as well. In this paper, the authors consider the coupling between several possible anthropogenic atmospheric perturbations. Namely, they examine the effects of past and possible future increases of chlorocarbons, CO 2 , N 2 O, and NO x . The focus of these calculations is on the potential changes in ozone due to chlorocarbon emissions, how other anthropogenic perturbations may have influenced the actual change in ozone over the last decade, and how these perturbations may influence future changes in ozone. Although calculations including future chlorocarbon emissions alone result in significant reductions in ozone, there is very little change in total ozone over the coming decades when other anthropogenic sources are included. Increasing CO 2 concentrations have the largest offsetting effect on the change in total ozone due to chlorocarbons. Owing to the necessity of considering emissions from a number of trace gases simultaneously, determining expected global-scale chemical and climatic effects is more complex than was previously recognized

  6. Anthropogenic features and hillslope processes interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarolli, Paolo; Sofia, Giulia

    2016-04-01

    Topography emerges as a result of natural driving forces, but some human activities (such as mining, agricultural practices and the construction of road networks) directly or indirectly move large quantities of soil, which leave clear topographic signatures embedded on the Earth's morphology. These signatures can cause drastic changes to the geomorphological organization of the landscape, with direct consequences on Earth surface processes (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). To this point, the present research investigates few case studies highlighting the influences of anthropogenic topographic signatures on hillslope processes, and it shows the effectiveness of High-Resolution Topography (HRT) derived from the recent remote sensing technologies (e.g. lidar, satellite, structure from motion photogrammetry), to better understand this interaction. The first example is related to agricultural terraces. In recent times, terraced areas acquired a new relevance to modern concerns about erosion and land instability, being the agricultural land mostly threatened by abandonment or intensification and specialization of agriculture, resulting in more landslide-prone bench terraces, or heavy land levelling with increased erosion. The second case study discusses about the role of agricultural and forest roads on surface erosion and landslides. The third case study investigates geomorphic processes in an open pit mine. In all case studies, HRT served as the basis for the development of new methodologies able to recognize and analyze changes on Earth surface processes along hillslopes. The results show how anthropogenic elements have crucial effects on sediment production and sediment delivery, also influencing the landscape connectivity. The availability of HRT can improve our ability to actually model anthropogenic morphologies, quantify them, and analyse the links between anthropogenic elements and geomorphic processes. The results presented here, and the creation and dissemination of

  7. Behavioral Ecology of Narwhals in a Changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    impacted by increasing anthropogenic activities in Baffin Bay (increasing shipping, future transit through the NW Passage, seismic exploration, increasing...whistles being missed). Second, we utlilized a custom made 16 channel vertical array (with a laptop and pre-amplifier inside an insulated aluminium...management considering ongoing and expected significant increases in anthropogenic sound (e.g., seismic exploration, shipping) in the Arctic. The

  8. Landscape changes in the environment due to military actions and their epidemic risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krushelnitsky A.D.

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the influence of the military-ecological and man-caused-anthropogenic factors on the environment state and natural processes. Epidemic risks and consequences resulted from landscapic changes of the environment which arise as a result of war and destruction of ecosystems are described.

  9. Ecological change on California's Channel Islands from the Pleistocene to the Anthropocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick, Torben C.; Sillett, T. Scott; Ghalambor, Cameron K.; Hofman, Courtney A.; Ralls, Katherine; Anderson, R. Scott; Boser, Christina L.; Braje, Todd J.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Chesser, R. Terry; Collins, Paul W.; Erlandson, Jon M.; Faulkner, Kate R.; Fleischer, Robert; Funk, W. Chris; Galipeau, Russell; Huston, Ann; King, Julie; Laughrin, Lyndal L.; Maldonado, Jesus; McEachern, Kathryn; Muhs, Daniel R.; Newsome, Seth D.; Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Still, Christopher; Morrison, Scott A.

    2014-01-01

    Historical ecology is becoming an important focus in conservation biology and offers a promising tool to help guide ecosystem management. Here, we integrate data from multiple disciplines to illuminate the past, present, and future of biodiversity on California's Channel Islands, an archipelago that has undergone a wide range of land-use and ecological changes. Our analysis spans approximately 20,000 years, from before human occupation and through Native American hunter–gatherers, commercial ranchers and fishers, the US military, and other land managers. We demonstrate how long-term, interdisciplinary research provides insight into conservation decisions, such as setting ecosystem restoration goals, preserving rare and endemic taxa, and reducing the impacts of climate change on natural and cultural resources. We illustrate the importance of historical perspectives for understanding modern patterns and ecological change and present an approach that can be applied generally in conservation management planning.

  10. Vulnerability of social-ecological system to climate change in Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakinuma, K.; Yanagawa, A.; Sasaki, T.; Kanae, S.

    2017-12-01

    Coping with future climate changes are one of the most important issues in the world. IPCC (2014) suggested that vulnerability and exposure of social-ecological systems to extreme climatic events (hazard) determine the impact of climate changes. Although the schematic framework is widely accepted, there are high uncertainty of vulnerability of social and ecological systems and it makes difficult to examine it in empirical researches. Our objective is to assess the climate change impact on the social-ecological system in Mongolia. We review researches about trends of climate (Hazard), vegetation, pastoral mobility (Vulnerability) and livestock distribution (Exposure) across Mongolia Climate trends are critical for last several decades and thus hazard may be increasing in Mongolia. Temperature is increasing with high confidence in all regions. Precipitation are slightly decreasing with medium confidence across the country, especially in northern and central regions. Exposure would also be increasing especially in northern, central and western regions, because livestock population are concentrating these regions after 1990. Generally, less productive ecosystems (e.g. few plant productivity and less species richness) are vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as drought. In that sense, southern region may be more vulnerable to climate changes than other regions. However, if we focus on pastoral mobility forms for drought, we get contractive conclusions. Pastoralists in southern region keep mobility to variable and scarce vegetation while pastoralists in northern region less mobile because of stable and much vegetation. Exclusive managements in northern region is able to maximized the number of livestock only under stable precipitation regimes. But at the same time, it is difficult to escape from hazardous areas when it is drought. Thus, in term of rangeland management, northern region would be more vulnerable to increase of drought intensity. Although northern and

  11. Climate change forces new ecological states in tropical Andean lakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neal Michelutti

    Full Text Available Air temperatures in the tropical Andes have risen at an accelerated rate relative to the global average over recent decades. However, the effects of climate change on Andean lakes, which are vital to sustaining regional biodiversity and serve as an important water resource to local populations, remain largely unknown. Here, we show that recent climate changes have forced alpine lakes of the equatorial Andes towards new ecological and physical states, in close synchrony to the rapid shrinkage of glaciers regionally. Using dated sediment cores from three lakes in the southern Sierra of Ecuador, we record abrupt increases in the planktonic thalassiosiroid diatom Discostella stelligera from trace abundances to dominance within the phytoplankton. This unprecedented shift occurs against the backdrop of rising temperatures, changing atmospheric pressure fields, and declining wind speeds. Ecological restructuring in these lakes is linked to warming and/or enhanced water column stratification. In contrast to seasonally ice-covered Arctic and temperate alpine counterparts, aquatic production has not increased universally with warming, and has even declined in some lakes, possibly because enhanced thermal stability impedes the re-circulation of hypolimnetic nutrients to surface waters. Our results demonstrate that these lakes have already passed important ecological thresholds, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Andean water resources.

  12. Developmental change in social responsibility during adolescence: An ecological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray-Lake, Laura; Syvertsen, Amy K; Flanagan, Constance A

    2016-01-01

    Social responsibility can be defined as a set of prosocial values representing personal commitments to contribute to community and society. Little is known about developmental change-and predictors of that change-in social responsibility during adolescence. The present study used an accelerated longitudinal research design to investigate the developmental trajectory of social responsibility values and ecological assets across family, school, community, and peer settings that predict these values. Data come from a 3-year study of 3,683 U.S. adolescents enrolled in upper-level elementary, middle, and high schools in rural, semiurban, and urban communities. Social responsibility values significantly decreased from age 9 to 16 before leveling off in later adolescence. Family compassion messages and democratic climate, school solidarity, community connectedness, and trusted friendship, positively predicted within-person change in adolescents' social responsibility values. These findings held after accounting for other individual-level and demographic factors and provide support for the role of ecological assets in adolescents' social responsibility development. In addition, fair society beliefs and volunteer experience had positive between- and within-person associations with social responsibility values. The manuscript discusses theoretical and practical implications of the conclusion that declines in ecological assets may partly explain age-related declines in social responsibility values. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. The actual relevance of ecological corridors in nature conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćurčić Nina B.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers theoretical and applied foundations of the concept of the ecological corridors in nature conservation. Their relevance comes from recent ecological phenomenon of habitat fragmentation which is rapidly increasing during last decades. Habitat fragmentation is one of the main threats to richness and diversity of wildlife. Ecological corridors can mitigate the loss and fragmentation of habitat. Corridors perform as “bridges” between habitats for species and they provide a flow of the natural or even anthropogenic caused disturbances. In this paper we will present the meaning and significance of ecological corridors in nature conservation, as well as types of ecological corridors and their ecological benefits. Methodological and practical approaches in nature protection system in Serbia are included. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47007 i br. 176008

  14. Ecological grief as a mental health response to climate change-related loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunsolo, Ashlee; Ellis, Neville R.

    2018-04-01

    Climate change is increasingly understood to impact mental health through multiple pathways of risk, including intense feelings of grief as people suffer climate-related losses to valued species, ecosystems and landscapes. Despite growing research interest, ecologically driven grief, or `ecological grief', remains an underdeveloped area of inquiry. We argue that grief is a natural and legitimate response to ecological loss, and one that may become more common as climate impacts worsen. Drawing upon our own research in Northern Canada and the Australian Wheatbelt, combined with a synthesis of the literature, we offer future research directions for the study of ecological grief.

  15. Elucidation of circulation mechanism on climatic changing vapor caused by water field ecology system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harada, Shigeki; Doi, Taeko; Watanabe, Masataka; Inamori, Yuhei

    1999-01-01

    As climatic change caused by increase of carbon dioxide amounts emitted by industrial development is much anxious, it is well-known that water field ecology system relaxes change of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, which is a climatic changing gas and has a closed relationship to the earth warming, is caught from atmosphere in the water field ecology system to be fixed as organic carbon and constitutes a starting point of food chains thereafter. In this study, in order to examine change of carbon dioxide, which is one of climatic changing gas or greenhouse effect gas caused by water field ecology system, 14-C was added to microcosm, which constructs a water field ecology system model, to measure 14-C amounts in each organism. As a result, it was found that carbon transfer in the system could be examined. And, it was also found that it was possible to understand more precise flow of substances and to elucidate quantitatively absorption of carbon dioxide and flow of carbon thereafter under different conditions, by future attempts on upgrading precision such as changing amounts of adding RI, and so forth. (G.K.)

  16. Predator transitory spillover induces trophic cascades in ecological sinks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casini, Michele; Blenckner, Thorsten; Möllmann, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the effects of cross-system fluxes is fundamental in ecosystem ecology and biological conservation. Source-sink dynamics and spillover processes may link adjacent ecosystems by movement of organisms across system boundaries. However, effects of temporal variability in these cross-sy...... in structuring natural systems. The integration of regional and local processes is central to predict species and ecosystem responses to future climate changes and ongoing anthropogenic disturbances......Understanding the effects of cross-system fluxes is fundamental in ecosystem ecology and biological conservation. Source-sink dynamics and spillover processes may link adjacent ecosystems by movement of organisms across system boundaries. However, effects of temporal variability in these cross......-system fluxes on a whole marine ecosystem structure have not yet been presented. Here we show, using 35 y of multitrophic data series from the Baltic Sea, that transitory spillover of the top-predator cod from its main distribution area produces cascading effects in the whole food web of an adjacent and semi...

  17. [Ecology-economy harmonious development based on the ecological services value change in Yanqi Basin, Northwest China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamat, Zulpiya; Halik, Umut; Aji, Rouzi; Nurmemet, Ilyas; Anwar, Mirigul; Keyimu, Maierdang

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, we used land use/cover ecosystem service value estimation model and ecological economic coordination degree model to analyze the changes of the ecosystem service value by the land use/cover changes during 1985, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005 and 2011 in Yanqi Basin, Xin-jiang. Then we evaluated the ecology-economy harmony and the regional differences. The results showed that during 1985-2011, there was an increasing trend in the areas of waters, wetland, sand, cultivated land and construction land in Yanqi Basin. In contrast, that of the saline-alkali land, grassland and woodland areas exhibited a decreasing trend. The ecosystem service value in Yanqi Basin during this period presented an increasing trend, among which the waters and cultivated land contributed most to the total value of ecosystem services, while the grassland and the woodland had obviously declined contribution to the total value of ecosystem services. The research showed that the development of ecological economy in the study area was at a low conflict and low coordination level. So, taking reasonable and effective use of the regional waters and soil resources is the key element to maintain the ecosystem service function and sustainable and harmonious development of economy in Yanqi Basin.

  18. Western Pyrenees facing global change: comparison of the effects of climatic and anthropogenic change on water abstractions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terrasson, Isabelle; Chazot, Sebastien; Maton, Laure; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Caballero, Yvan

    2014-01-01

    In the French Western Pyrenees, the trend to the decrease of low water flows that has been observed during the current years should be going on in the future. This may increase the hydric stress on aquatic ecosystems, and the competition among water uses and users for accessing water resources. The research project ANR-VULCAIN compared the impacts of climatic and socio-economic change on the hydro-systems of the French Western Pyrenees. Modeling and participative prospect analysis have been coupled to quantify the evolution of water abstractions under these two types of change. Socio-economic scenarios have been built together with local stakeholders during workshops (urbanism / land planning on the one hand and agriculture on the other hand). Their results have been quantified with the models developed so as to assess anthropogenic change impacts on domestic and agricultural abstractions. In parallel, the agricultural model has been fed with climatic scenarios so as to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural water needs. In the created scenarios, the evolution of agricultural water needs under climate change have a bigger range than the evolution of abstractions for domestic water and agricultural needs under anthropic change, which are the same order of magnitude. To satisfy this evolution, there are some rooms to maneuver: make distribution modalities more efficient, optimize the management of storage capacity, or use substitution resources. This paper presents the approach that has been followed, and some of the main results. (authors)

  19. A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.R. Magness; J.M. Morton; F. Huettmann; F.S. Chapin; A.D. McGuire

    2011-01-01

    Rapid climate change, in conjunction with other anthropogenic drivers, has the potential to cause mass species extinction. To minimize this risk, conservation reserves need to be coordinated at multiple spatial scales because the climate envelopes of many species may shift rapidly across large geographic areas. In addition, novel species assemblages and ecological...

  20. Beyond positivist ecology: toward an integrated ecological ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Bryan G

    2008-12-01

    A post-positivist understanding of ecological science and the call for an "ecological ethic" indicate the need for a radically new approach to evaluating environmental change. The positivist view of science cannot capture the essence of environmental sciences because the recent work of "reflexive" ecological modelers shows that this requires a reconceptualization of the way in which values and ecological models interact in scientific process. Reflexive modelers are ecological modelers who believe it is appropriate for ecologists to examine the motives for their choices in developing models; this self-reflexive approach opens the door to a new way of integrating values into public discourse and to a more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change. This reflexive building of ecological models is introduced through the transformative simile of Aldo Leopold, which shows that learning to "think like a mountain" involves a shift in both ecological modeling and in values and responsibility. An adequate, interdisciplinary approach to ecological valuation, requires a re-framing of the evaluation questions in entirely new ways, i.e., a review of the current status of interdisciplinary value theory with respect to ecological values reveals that neither of the widely accepted theories of environmental value-neither economic utilitarianism nor intrinsic value theory (environmental ethics)-provides a foundation for an ecologically sensitive evaluation process. Thus, a new, ecologically sensitive, and more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change would include an examination of the metaphors that motivate the models used to describe environmental change.

  1. Chemical Footprint Method for Improved Communication of Freshwater Ecotoxicity Impacts in the Context of Ecological Limits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørn, Anders; Diamond, Miriam; Birkved, Morten

    2014-01-01

    The ecological footprint method has been successful in communicating environmental impacts of anthropogenic activities in the context of ecological limits. We introduce a chemical footprint method that expresses ecotoxicity impacts from anthropogenic chemical emissions as the dilution needed...... to avoid freshwater ecosystem damage. The indicator is based on USEtox characterization factors with a modified toxicity reference point. Chemical footprint results can be compared to the actual dilution capacity within the geographic vicinity receiving the emissions to estimate whether its ecological...... limit has been exceeded and hence whether emissions can be expected to be environmentally sustainable. The footprint method was illustrated using two case studies. The first was all inventoried emissions from European countries and selected metropolitan areas in 2004, which indicated that the dilution...

  2. Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Brown, Christopher J.; O'Connor, Mary I.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Schoeman, David S.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Richardson, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses

  3. First evidence of agro-pastoral farming and anthropogenic impact in the Taman Peninsula, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaniewski, David; Giaime, Matthieu; Marriner, Nick; Morhange, Christophe; Otto, Thierry; Porotov, Alexey V.; Van Campo, Elise

    2015-04-01

    Debate on the complex coevolution that has shaped interactions between forested ecosystems and humans through constantly evolving land-use practices over the past millennia has long been centered on the Mediterranean because this area is seen as the cradle for the birth and growth of agricultural activities. Here, we argue that the transition from hunting-gathering by Mesolithic foragers to the food-producing economy of Neolithic farmers was a main trigger of biological changes not only in the Mediterranean but also in the Black Sea and Azov Sea coasts through woodcutting, herding, fire and agriculture. Although the ecological erosion was clearly focused on forested ecosystems, this process seems to have fostered an increased biodiversity. We show, by focusing on the fertile coast of the Azov Sea, that (i) the first evidence of cereal cultivation and human-induced fire occurred in southern Russia 7000 years ago; (ii) the early development of agriculture was a major but discontinuous process; (iii) the coastal ecosystems were rapidly disturbed by anthropogenic activities; and (iv) the Neolithic was a critical threshold for the forested ecosystems of the coastal area. The impact of early anthropogenic pressures seems to have been largely neglected or underestimated for the period encompassing the Neolithic cultural phase.

  4. Influence of the anthropogenic changes of gamma dose radiation connected connected with uranium mining upon selected plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solecki, A. T.; Wislocka, M.A.

    2000-01-01

    The situation of flora in the regions with expressive anthropogenic changes in the background of gamma radiation and concentration of the radon in atmospheric air was observed. The content of heavy metals in the depth of the anomaly terrain was analyzed. The analyses of the selected radionuclides in plant ash by method in thin layer were performed. The concentration of radionuclides and situation of flora was correlated. (authors)

  5. Anthropogenic changes in the surface all-sky UV-B radiation through 1850-2005 simulated by an Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Takemura, T.; Sudo, K.; Yokohata, T.; Kawase, H.

    2012-06-01

    The historical anthropogenic change in the surface all-sky UV-B (solar ultraviolet: 280-315 nm) radiation through 1850-2005 is evaluated using an Earth system model. Responses of UV-B dose to anthropogenic changes in ozone and aerosols are separately evaluated using a series of historical simulations including/excluding these changes. Increases in these air pollutants cause reductions in UV-B transmittance, which occur gradually/rapidly before/after 1950 in and downwind of industrial and deforestation regions. Furthermore, changes in ozone transport in the lower stratosphere, which is induced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, increase ozone concentration in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. These transient changes work to decrease the amount of UV-B reaching the Earth's surface, counteracting the well-known effect increasing UV-B due to stratospheric ozone depletion, which developed rapidly after ca. 1980. As a consequence, the surface UV-B radiation change between 1850 and 2000 is negative in the tropics and NH extratropics and positive in the SH extratropics. Comparing the contributions of ozone and aerosol changes to the UV-B change, the transient change in ozone absorption of UV-B mainly determines the total change in the surface UV-B radiation at most locations. On the other hand, the aerosol direct and indirect effects on UV-B play an equally important role to that of ozone in the NH mid-latitudes and tropics. A typical example is East Asia (25° N-60° N and 120° E-150° E), where the effect of aerosols (ca. 70%) dominates the total UV-B change.

  6. Realization of investigations to an ecological monitoring of gene technically changed organisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heissenberger, A.; Miklau, M.; Gaugitsch, H.; Kasal, V.; Loos, S.; Traxler, A.; Dolezel, M.; Pascher, K.; Kuffner, M.

    2003-04-01

    The main aim of this study was to develop a basis for an ecological monitoring with the help of two case studies, oilseed rape and maize. Theoretical concepts, which have been developed during the last years have been checked in practice. In order to define and investigate the 'environment' in the context of EU directive 2001/18/EC the area of investigation has been enlarged. Not only the field and its surroundings but the whole surrounding landscape was investigated. The biodiversity of the agricultural landscape is not only defined by interactions of animals and plants but also by environments like dry grasslands or small forests which are of anthropogenic origin or are under high anthropogenic influence. A separation of species-rich natural landscapes and intensively used agricultural areas is often not given. In reality they are frequently in close neighborhood. In one of the test areas (Zurndorf) an important protected area (also Natura 2000 area) is situated in an agricultural area. The influence of such natural habitats can clearly be shown in agricultural areas (feeding by birds or insects, etc.). In this study the habitats have been evaluated according to uniform nature protection aspects. The habitats have been investigated and classified according to the 'Red List of Types of Bio-tops' and species counts and classification of plants and animals have been performed. It could be shown that the composition of species (especially endangered species) varies highly among the test areas. Nevertheless all areas and not only hot spots in biodiversity have to be monitored if a representative surveillance should be performed. The use of maps and arial photographs, and a first rough field investigation was necessary to define and choose the areas of interest. This was a major tool in the investigations carried out in this study. This study also showed the limits of an ecological monitoring. While a case specific monitoring can efficiently be performed if the

  7. Influence of Holocene environmental change and anthropogenic impact on the diversity and distribution of roe deer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, K H; Hoelzel, A R

    2014-06-01

    Extant patterns of population structure and levels of diversity are a consequence of factors that vary in both space and time. Our objective in this study is to investigate a species that has responded to both natural and anthropogenic changes in ways that have shaped modern populations and provide insight into the key processes. The roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) is one of the two species of deer native to Britain. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), the British habitat was largely under ice and there was a land bridge to mainland Europe. As the Earth warmed during the early Holocene, the land bridge was lost. Subsequent hunting on the British mainland left the southern region extirpated of roe deer, whereas a refugial population remained in the north. Later reintroductions from Europe led to population expansion, especially in southern United Kingdom. Here, we combine data from ancient and modern DNA to track population dynamics and patterns of connectivity, and test hypotheses about the influence of natural and anthropogenic environmental change. We find that past expansion and divergence events coincided with a warming environment and the subsequent closure of the land bridge between Europe and the United Kingdom. We also find turnover in British roe deer haplotypes between the late-Holocene and modern day that have likely resulted from recent human disturbance activities such as habitat perturbation, overhunting and restocking.

  8. Estimating anthropogenic ecological water stress in the US great lakes region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropocentric water resources management that prioritizes socio-economic growth can cause harmful ecological water stress by depriving aquatic ecosystems of the water needed to sustain habitats. It is important to better understand the impacts of water withdrawal by different economic sectors (e.g...

  9. Ecological economics and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier-Rigaud, G.

    1991-09-01

    What is the subject of ecology? What is the primary concern of economics? How can the interface between ecology and economics be described? Is there a relationship between the two different sciences which constitutes a new research field? This book raises some of these basic questions and reflects on major misleading assumptions research in ecological economics unwittingly relies on. An outlook is given as to the aspects on which research in this field should now primarily concentrate. This publication addresses first of all natural scientists and politicians, though economists, too, might find some new aspects apart from traditional economic reasoning. (orig./KW)

  10. [Research progress on remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Ming-jun; Zeng, Li-xiong; Xiao, Wen-fa; Zhou, Zhi-xiang; Huang, Zhi-lin; Wang, Peng-cheng; Dian, Yuan-yong

    2014-12-01

    The Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGR area) , one of the most sensitive ecological zones in China, has dramatically changes in ecosystem configurations and services driven by the Three Gorges Engineering Project and its related human activities. Thus, understanding the dynamics of ecosystem configurations, ecological processes and ecosystem services is an attractive and critical issue to promote regional ecological security of the TGR area. The remote sensing of environment is a promising approach to the target and is thus increasingly applied to and ecosystem dynamics of the TGR area on mid- and macro-scales. However, current researches often showed controversial results in ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area due to the differences in remote sensing data, scale, and land-use/cover classification. Due to the complexity of ecological configurations and human activities, challenges still exist in the remote-sensing based research of ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area. The purpose of this review was to summarize the research advances in remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area. The status, challenges and trends of ecological and environmental remote-sensing in the TGR area were further discussed and concluded in the aspect of land-use/land-cover, vegetation dynamics, soil and water security, ecosystem services, ecosystem health and its management. The further researches on the remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes were proposed to improve the ecosystem management of the TGR area.

  11. New ecology, global change, and forest politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampson, N.

    1993-01-01

    Ecosystems constantly change. Some changes are caused by natural conditions that evolve at a very slow pace including climate change, species evolution and migration, and soil formation. Forests don't always respond to gradual changes in gradual ways, though gradual change may be hidden for years within the normal variation in the ecosystem. The industrial age has resulted in a rapid and continuing buildup of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons which trap heat in the greenhouse effect. Industrial processes also emit oxides of nitrogen and sulfur that change atmospheric chemistry and alter the nutrient input into ecosystems. Natural forests face a hard time adjusting to a rate of climatic change that is 3 to 10 times faster than species can migrate and that increases the occurrence of major windstorms. In the forest ecosystem where trees are removed or destroyed under rapid climatic change, conditions may not return to their original state, even if we try to restore it. When the ecosystem changes faster than the bureaucracy of the management agency, a serious problem exists. New understandings of ecology and global change may force new ways of thinking in these situations

  12. Simulation of Regionally Ecological Land Based on a Cellular Automation Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiubin Li

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Ecological land is like the “liver” of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

  13. Simulation of regionally ecological land based on a cellular automation model: a case study of Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

    2012-08-01

    Ecological land is like the "liver" of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

  14. An inquiry into the relationships among science, policy and the public: the case of anthropogenic climate change; Betrachtung des Verhaeltnisses zwischen Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit am Beispiel der Diskussion um anthropogene Klimaaenderungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rau, S [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

    2001-07-01

    This thesis present an analysis of qualitative interviews with experts in the field of climate research in which the relation among science, policy and public is discussed. To begin, an overview of the methods and results of climate science is presented. Following, elements of the discourse among science, policy and public are presented in a manner that demonstrates the different ways to look at the problem of anthropogenic climate change. Subsequently, approaches of the sociology of science are introduced in which science is examined as a social process. Here the question is raised up to what extent climate research has taken a problem oriented perspective in which social and political criteria in the treatment of actual risks of global change are taken into account. The results of the analysis indicate that uncertainties in science led to different perspectives regarding the risks of anthropogenic climate change. In this way scientific knowledge itself becomes problematic. Communication of scientific results to policy and public poses a process which is stamped by individual values and preferences. This suggests the possibility that recognition of theories is increasingly determined by extra scientific criteria like resonance in the media and possibility of connection for political measures. (orig.) [German] In dieser Arbeit wird eine Analyse qualitativer Interviews mit Klimaforschern vorgestellt, in denen das Verhaeltnis von Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit diskutiert wird. In einem ersten Schritt wird ein Ueberblick gegeben ueber Methoden und Ergebnisse der gegenwaertigen Klimaforschung. Anschliessend werden Elemente des Diskurses zwischen Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit dargestellt, die unterschiedliche Selektionsmuster der Problematik um anthropogene Klimaaenderungen verdeutlichen. Hiervon ausgehend werden Ansaetze der Wissenschaftssoziologie vorgestellt, mit denen Wissenschaft als sozialer Prozess analysiert wird. Hierbei wird die Frage

  15. Ecology of Land Cover Change in Glaciated Tropical Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth R. Young

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical mountains contain unique biological diversity, and are subject to many consequences of global climate change, exasperated by concurrent socioeconomic shifts. Glaciers are in a negative mass balance, exposing substrates to primary succession and altering downslope wetlands and streams. A review of recent trends and future predictions suggests a likely reduction in areas of open habitat for species of high mountains due to greater woody plant cover, accompanied by land use shifts by farmers and pastoralists along the environmental gradients of tropical mountains. Research is needed on the biodiversity and ecosystem consequences of successional change, including the direct effects of retreating glaciers and the indirect consequences of combined social and ecological drivers in lower elevations. Areas in the high mountains that are protected for nature conservation or managed collectively by local communities represent opportunities for integrated research and development approaches that may provide ecological spaces for future species range shifts.

  16. Seascape ecology in Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows: Linking structure and ecological processes for management

    OpenAIRE

    Abadie, Arnaud; Pace, Matthew; Gobert, Sylvie; Borg, Joseph

    2018-01-01

    Seagrass meadows constitute marine habitats in shallow water temperate and tropical coastal areas worldwide that have a high ecological and economic importance. Amongst the 60 or so seagrass species, the endemic Mediterranean species Posidonia oceanica forms meadows that are arguably the most important shallow water coastal habitat in the region but which are subjected to high anthropogenic pressures. Because of the relatively large size of the plant, the meadows formed by this seagrass have ...

  17. Marine Socio-Environmental Covariates: queryable global layers of environmental and anthropogenic variables for marine ecosystem studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeager, Lauren A; Marchand, Philippe; Gill, David A; Baum, Julia K; McPherson, Jana M

    2017-07-01

    Biophysical conditions, including climate, environmental stress, and habitat availability, are key drivers of many ecological processes (e.g., community assembly and productivity) and associated ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and fishery production). Furthermore, anthropogenic impacts such as coastal development and fishing can have drastic effects on the structure and function of marine ecosystems. Scientists need to account for environmental variation and human impacts to accurately model, manage, and conserve marine ecosystems. Although there are many types of environmental data available from global remote sensing and open-source data products, some are inaccessible to potential end-users because they exist as global layers in high temporal and spatial resolutions which require considerable computational power to process. Additionally, coastal locations often suffer from missing data or data quality issues which limit the utility of some global marine products for coastal sites. Herein we present the Marine Socio-Environmental Covariates dataset for the global oceans, which consists of environmental and anthropogenic variables summarized in ecologically relevant ways. The dataset includes four sets of environmental variables related to biophysical conditions (net primary productivity models corrected for shallow-water reflectance, wave energy including sheltered-coastline corrections) and landscape context (coral reef and land cover within varying radii). We also present two sets of anthropogenic variables, human population density (within varying radii) and distance to large population center, which can serve as indicators of local human impacts. We have paired global, summarized layers available for download with an online data querying platform that allows users to extract data for specific point locations with finer control of summary statistics. In creating these global layers and online platform, we hope to make the data accessible to a

  18. Multiplex social ecological network analysis reveals how social changes affect community robustness more than resource depletion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baggio, Jacopo A; BurnSilver, Shauna B; Arenas, Alex; Magdanz, James S; Kofinas, Gary P; De Domenico, Manlio

    2016-11-29

    Network analysis provides a powerful tool to analyze complex influences of social and ecological structures on community and household dynamics. Most network studies of social-ecological systems use simple, undirected, unweighted networks. We analyze multiplex, directed, and weighted networks of subsistence food flows collected in three small indigenous communities in Arctic Alaska potentially facing substantial economic and ecological changes. Our analysis of plausible future scenarios suggests that changes to social relations and key households have greater effects on community robustness than changes to specific wild food resources.

  19. A long-term survey on anthropogenic impacts to the water quality of coral reefs, southern Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, P.-J.; Lee, H.-J.; Wang, J.-T.; Chen, C.-C.; Lin, H.-J.; Tew, K.S.; Hsieh, W.-J.

    2008-01-01

    Before 2001, the ecological protection area in the Kenting National Park (KTNP), southern Taiwan, was poorly described. In this study, a set of four-year data (2001-2004) of seawater qualities at 19 sampling sites around the Nanwan Bay in the KTNP was used to explore anthropogenic impacts to ecological environment, especially coral reefs. The parameters of water quality were analyzed immediately after collection. The results showed that higher values of nutrients and suspended solids were attributed to the higher run-off around Nanwan Bay. The fluxes of nutrients and suspended solids were consistently correlated to rainfall. Hence, equations were developed to calculate nutrient fluxes and suspended solids by using only rainfall data. Our results show that suspended solids and ammonia were the dominant factors leading to the drop in coral coverage. In summary, the water quality in the intertidal zone of Nanwan Bay has been degraded and required greater attention. - Suspended solids and ammonium in discharge derived from anthropogenic activities are two main factors causing drop in coral coverage

  20. A long-term survey on anthropogenic impacts to the water quality of coral reefs, southern Taiwan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meng, P.-J. [National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium, Checheng, Pingtung 944, Taiwan (China); Institute of Marine Biodiversity and Evolution, National Dong Hwa University, Checheng, Pingtung 944, Taiwan (China)], E-mail: pjmeng@nmmba.gov.tw; Lee, H.-J. [Department of Marine Environmental Informatics, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 20224, Taiwan (China); Wang, J.-T. [Tajen University, Pingtung 907, Taiwan (China)], E-mail: jtw@mail.tajen.edu.tw; Chen, C.-C. [Department of Life Science, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei 11677, Taiwan (China); Lin, H.-J. [Department of Life Sciences, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung 402, Taiwan (China); Tew, K.S. [National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium, Checheng, Pingtung 944, Taiwan (China); Institute of Marine Biodiversity and Evolution, National Dong Hwa University, Checheng, Pingtung 944, Taiwan (China); Hsieh, W.-J. [National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (China)

    2008-11-15

    Before 2001, the ecological protection area in the Kenting National Park (KTNP), southern Taiwan, was poorly described. In this study, a set of four-year data (2001-2004) of seawater qualities at 19 sampling sites around the Nanwan Bay in the KTNP was used to explore anthropogenic impacts to ecological environment, especially coral reefs. The parameters of water quality were analyzed immediately after collection. The results showed that higher values of nutrients and suspended solids were attributed to the higher run-off around Nanwan Bay. The fluxes of nutrients and suspended solids were consistently correlated to rainfall. Hence, equations were developed to calculate nutrient fluxes and suspended solids by using only rainfall data. Our results show that suspended solids and ammonia were the dominant factors leading to the drop in coral coverage. In summary, the water quality in the intertidal zone of Nanwan Bay has been degraded and required greater attention. - Suspended solids and ammonium in discharge derived from anthropogenic activities are two main factors causing drop in coral coverage.

  1. A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

    2017-01-01

    For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

  2. What is Novel About Novel Ecosystems: Managing Change in an Ever-Changing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truitt, Amy M.; Granek, Elise F.; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Goldsmith, Kaitlin A.; Jordan, Meredith P.; Yazzie, Kimberly C.

    2015-06-01

    Influenced by natural climatic, geological, and evolutionary changes, landscapes and the ecosystems within are continuously changing. In addition to these natural pressures, anthropogenic drivers have increasingly influenced ecosystems. Whether affected by natural or anthropogenic processes, ecosystems, ecological communities, and ecosystem functioning are dynamic and can lead to "novel" or "emerging" ecosystems. Current literature identifies several definitions of these ecosystems but lacks an unambiguous definition and framework for categorizing what constitutes a novel ecosystem and for informing decisions around best management practices. Here we explore the various definitions used for novel ecosystems, present an unambiguous definition, and propose a framework for identifying the most appropriate management option. We identify and discuss three approaches for managing novel ecosystems: managing against, tolerating, and managing for these systems, and we provide real-world examples of each approach. We suggest that this framework will allow managers to make thoughtful decisions about which strategy is most appropriate for each unique situation, to determine whether the strategy is working, and to facilitate decision-making when it is time to modify the management approach.

  3. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weir, Scott M.; Suski, Jamie G.; Salice, Christopher J.

    2010-01-01

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. - Avian receptors are not universally appropriate surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment.

  4. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, Scott M., E-mail: scott.weir@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States); Suski, Jamie G., E-mail: jamie.suski@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Department of Biological Sciences, Box 43131, Lubbock, TX (United States); Salice, Christopher J., E-mail: chris.salice@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States)

    2010-12-15

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. - Avian receptors are not universally appropriate surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment.

  5. [Ecological risk assessment of land use based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA): a case study of Haitan Island, Fujian Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian; Chen, Peng; Wen, Chao-Xiang; Fu, Shi-Feng; Chen, Qing-Hui

    2014-07-01

    As a novel environment management tool, ecological risk assessment has provided a new perspective for the quantitative evaluation of ecological effects of land-use change. In this study, Haitan Island in Fujian Province was taken as a case. Based on the Landsat TM obtained in 1990, SPOT5 RS images obtained in 2010, general layout planning map of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone in 2030, as well as the field investigation data, we established an ecological risk index to measure ecological endpoints. By using spatial autocorrelation and semivariance analysis of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), the ecological risk of Haitan Island under different land-use situations was assessed, including the past (1990), present (2010) and future (2030), and the potential risk and its changing trend were analyzed. The results revealed that the ecological risk index showed obvious scale effect, with strong positive correlation within 3000 meters. High-high (HH) and low-low (LL) aggregations were predominant types in spatial distribution of ecological risk index. The ecological risk index showed significant isotropic characteristics, and its spatial distribution was consistent with Anselin Local Moran I (LISA) distribution during the same period. Dramatic spatial distribution change of each ecological risk area was found among 1990, 2010 and 2030, and the fluctuation trend and amplitude of different ecological risk areas were diverse. The low ecological risk area showed a rise-to-fall trend while the medium and high ecological risk areas showed a fall-to-rise trend. In the planning period, due to intensive anthropogenic disturbance, the high ecological risk area spread throughout the whole region. To reduce the ecological risk in land-use and maintain the regional ecological security, the following ecological risk control strategies could be adopted, i.e., optimizing the spatial pattern of land resources, protecting the key ecoregions and controlling the scale of

  6. Blue whales respond to anthropogenic noise.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana L Melcón

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic noise may significantly impact exposed marine mammals. This work studied the vocalization response of endangered blue whales to anthropogenic noise sources in the mid-frequency range using passive acoustic monitoring in the Southern California Bight. Blue whales were less likely to produce calls when mid-frequency active sonar was present. This reduction was more pronounced when the sonar source was closer to the animal, at higher sound levels. The animals were equally likely to stop calling at any time of day, showing no diel pattern in their sensitivity to sonar. Conversely, the likelihood of whales emitting calls increased when ship sounds were nearby. Whales did not show a differential response to ship noise as a function of the time of the day either. These results demonstrate that anthropogenic noise, even at frequencies well above the blue whales' sound production range, has a strong probability of eliciting changes in vocal behavior. The long-term implications of disruption in call production to blue whale foraging and other behaviors are currently not well understood.

  7. Exploring the role of traditional ecological knowledge in climate change initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsten Vinyeta; Kathy. Lynn

    2013-01-01

    Indigenous populations are projected to face disproportionate impacts as a result of climate change in comparison to nonindigenous populations. For this reason, many American Indian and Alaska Native tribes are identifying and implementing culturally appropriate strategies to assess climate impacts and adapt to projected changes. Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK...

  8. [Developmental instability of the organism as a result of pessimization of environment under anthropogenic transformation of natural landscapes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadrina, E G; Vol'pert, Ia L

    2014-01-01

    The value of fluctuating asymmetry is considered to be an indicator of the developmental instability of the organism. The consequences of activities of the mining industry plants, which are characterized by alienation and transformation of large areas of natural landscapes, are analyzed as an anthropogenic factor. The objects of study were small mammals (northern red-backed (Clethrionomys rutilus) and gray red-backed (Clethrionomys rufocanus) voles, tundra vole (Microtus oeconomus), Laxmann's (Sorex caecutiens) and tundra (S. tundrensis) shrews) and trees (Japanese white birch (Betula platyphylla), Betula divaricate, Betula exilis, Duschekiafruticosa, and common osier (Salix viminalis)). In total, 3500 skulls and approximately 30000 leaves collected in the taiga zone of Yakutia were studied. The index offluctuating asymmetry, as well as population parameters and composition of small mammal communities, were analyzed. The data on the value of the fluctuating asymmetry in the studied species in natural habitats are given. It is shown that, in natural conditions, this parameter can rise with deterioration in living conditions, particularly at the ecological periphery of the range. Anthropogenic transformation of natural landscapes creates an "anthropogenic periphery" and causes changes similar to the adaptive responses at the northern limit of the distribution of species. It was found that, through pollution and disruption of ecosystems, the mining industry affects all levels of organization of the living matter, but the population and cenotic parameters give an unambiguous response only at macroanthropogenic transformations. Increase in the level of fluctuating asymmetry is the most sensitive indicator of anthropogenic impact and it should also be taken into account that disruptions in the developmental stability of an organism reflect the destructive processes occurring in the population and community.

  9. Salient Ecological Sensitive Regions of Central Western Ghats, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandra, T. V.; Bharath, Setturu; Subash Chandran, M. D.; Joshi, N. V.

    2018-02-01

    Ecologically sensitive regions (ESRs) are the `ecological units' with the exceptional biotic and abiotic elements. Identification of ESRs considering spatially both ecological and social dimensions of environmental variables helps in ecological and conservation planning as per Biodiversity Act, 2002, Government of India. The current research attempts to integrate ecological and environmental considerations into administration, and prioritizes regions at Panchayat levels (local administrative unit) in Uttara Kannada district, Central Western Ghats, Karnataka state considering attributes (biological, Geo-climatic, Social, etc.) as ESR (1-4) through weightage score metrics. The region has the distinction of having highest forest area (80.48%) in Karnataka State, India and has been undergoing severe anthropogenic pressures impacting biogeochemistry, hydrology, food security, climate and socio-economic systems. Prioritisation of ESRs helps in the implementation of the sustainable developmental framework with the appropriate conservation strategies through the involvement of local stakeholders.

  10. Salient Ecological Sensitive Regions of Central Western Ghats, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandra, T. V.; Bharath, Setturu; Subash Chandran, M. D.; Joshi, N. V.

    2018-05-01

    Ecologically sensitive regions (ESRs) are the `ecological units' with the exceptional biotic and abiotic elements. Identification of ESRs considering spatially both ecological and social dimensions of environmental variables helps in ecological and conservation planning as per Biodiversity Act, 2002, Government of India. The current research attempts to integrate ecological and environmental considerations into administration, and prioritizes regions at Panchayat levels (local administrative unit) in Uttara Kannada district, Central Western Ghats, Karnataka state considering attributes (biological, Geo-climatic, Social, etc.) as ESR (1-4) through weightage score metrics. The region has the distinction of having highest forest area (80.48%) in Karnataka State, India and has been undergoing severe anthropogenic pressures impacting biogeochemistry, hydrology, food security, climate and socio-economic systems. Prioritisation of ESRs helps in the implementation of the sustainable developmental framework with the appropriate conservation strategies through the involvement of local stakeholders.

  11. Conservation implications of anthropogenic impacts on visual communication and camouflage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delhey, Kaspar; Peters, Anne

    2017-02-01

    Anthropogenic environmental impacts can disrupt the sensory environment of animals and affect important processes from mate choice to predator avoidance. Currently, these effects are best understood for auditory and chemosensory modalities, and recent reviews highlight their importance for conservation. We examined how anthropogenic changes to the visual environment (ambient light, transmission, and backgrounds) affect visual communication and camouflage and considered the implications of these effects for conservation. Human changes to the visual environment can increase predation risk by affecting camouflage effectiveness, lead to maladaptive patterns of mate choice, and disrupt mutualistic interactions between pollinators and plants. Implications for conservation are particularly evident for disrupted camouflage due to its tight links with survival. The conservation importance of impaired visual communication is less documented. The effects of anthropogenic changes on visual communication and camouflage may be severe when they affect critical processes such as pollination or species recognition. However, when impaired mate choice does not lead to hybridization, the conservation consequences are less clear. We suggest that the demographic effects of human impacts on visual communication and camouflage will be particularly strong when human-induced modifications to the visual environment are evolutionarily novel (i.e., very different from natural variation); affected species and populations have low levels of intraspecific (genotypic and phenotypic) variation and behavioral, sensory, or physiological plasticity; and the processes affected are directly related to survival (camouflage), species recognition, or number of offspring produced, rather than offspring quality or attractiveness. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic effects on the visual environment may be of similar importance relative to conservation as anthropogenic effects on other sensory modalities

  12. Reduced Ultrafine Particle Concentration in Urban Air: Changes in Nucleation and Anthropogenic Emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Provat K; Robinson, Ellis S; Shah, Rishabh U; Zimmerman, Naomi; Apte, Joshua S; Robinson, Allen L; Presto, Albert A

    2018-06-19

    Nucleation is an important source of ambient ultrafine particles (UFP). We present observational evidence of the changes in the frequency and intensity of nucleation events in urban air by analyzing long-term particle size distribution measurements at an urban background site in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania during 2001-2002 and 2016-2017. We find that both frequency and intensity of nucleation events have been reduced by 40-50% over the past 15 years, resulting in a 70% reduction in UFP concentrations from nucleation. On average, the particle growth rates are 30% slower than 15 years ago. We attribute these changes to dramatic reductions in SO 2 (more than 90%) and other pollutant concentrations. Overall, UFP concentrations in Pittsburgh have been reduced by ∼48% in the past 15 years, with a ∼70% reduction in nucleation, ∼27% in weekday local sources (e.g., weekday traffic), and 49% in the regional background. Our results highlight that a reduction in anthropogenic emissions can considerably reduce nucleation events and UFP concentrations in a polluted urban environment.

  13. Soil Organic Matter Responses to Anthropogenic Forest Disturbance and Land Use Change in the Eastern Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Regina Durigan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic forest disturbance and land use change (LUC in the Amazon region is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere in Brazil, due to the carbon (C and nitrogen (N emitted from vegetation clearance. Land use conversion associated with management practices plays a key role in the distribution and origin of C in different soil organic matter (SOM fractions. Here, we show how changing land use systems have influenced soil C and N stocks, SOM physical fractions, and the origin of SOM in the Santarém region of the eastern Brazilian Amazon. Soil C and N stocks were calculated for the surface layer of 0–30 cm. Anthropogenic disturbances to the standing forest, such as selective logging and wildfires, led to significant declines in soil C and N stocks. However, in the long-term, the conversion of the Amazon forest to pasture did not have a noticeable effect on soil C and N stocks, presumably because of additional inputs from pasture grasses. However, the conversion to cropland did lead to reductions in soil C and N content. According to the physical fractionation of SOM, LUC altered SOM quality, but silt and clay remained the combined fraction that contributed the most to soil C storage. Our results emphasize the importance of implementing more sustainable forest management systems, whilst also calling further attention to the need for fire monitoring systems, helping to ensure the resilience of C and N stocks and sequestration in forest soils; thereby contributing towards urgently needed ongoing efforts to mitigate climate change.

  14. Dynamics of change in local physician supply: an ecological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, H Joanna; Begun, James W

    2002-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to employ an ecological framework to identify factors that have an impact on change in local physician supply within the USA. A particular specialty type of patient care physicians in a local market is defined as a physician population. Four physician populations are identified: generalists, medical specialists, surgical specialists, and hospital-based specialists. Based on population ecology theory, the proposed framework explains the growth of a particular physician population by four mechanisms: the intrinsic properties of this physician population; the local market's carrying capacity, which is determined by three environmental dimensions (munificence, concentration, diversity); competition within the same physician population; and interdependence between different physician populations. Data at the level of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) were compiled from the US Area Resources File, the American Hospital Association Annual Surveys of Hospitals, the American Medical Association Census of Medical Groups, the InterStudy National HMO Census, and the US County Business Patterns. Changes in the number and percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population from 1985 to 1994 were regressed, respectively, on 1985-94 changes in the explanatory variables as well as their levels in 1985. The results indicate that the population ecology framework is useful in explaining dynamics of change in the local physician workforce. Variables measuring the three environmental dimensions were found to have significant, and in some cases, differential effects on change in the size of different specialty populations. For example, both hospital consolidation and managed care penetration showed significant positive eflects on growth of the generalist population but suppressing effects on growth of the specialist population. The percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population in 1985 was negatively related to change in the size

  15. Cytogenetic variability in pinus sylvestris L. populations experiencing anthropogenic influence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oudalova, A.; Geras'kin, S.; Vasiliev, D.; Dikarev, V.

    2004-01-01

    Techno-genic pollution has become one of the most significant ecological factors determining biosphere existence and development. An analysis of genetic consequences of the radiation accidents in the South Urals and Chernobyl has shown that mutation and recombination processes are considerably accelerated in plant and animal's populations experiencing techno-genic influence. This implies that there are complicated adaptation processes leading to changes in genetic structure of populations and increasing genetic load. Pinus sylvestris L. populations growing at the territory of the 'radon' Leningrad regional radioactive waste reprocessing enterprise and Sosnovy Bor town were monitored 6 years (1997-2002) by a set of cyto-genetical and morphological tests. Cytogenetic damage levels within intercalary meristem of needle as well as in root meristem of seedlings were found to significantly exceed corresponding controls. A higher radioresistance of the Scots pine seeds analyzed was demonstrated with an acute γ-radiation that also revealed a selection process directed at an enhancement of repair efficiency and resulting in a shift of mean values of radioresistance in populations towards higher values. An enlargement of variance of studied cytogenetic parameters was found in the populations experiencing techno-genic influence. This indicates, with an account of phenomenon of the enhanced radioresistance, that there are processes of cyto-genetical adaptation in the investigated regions. An analysis of the structure of ecological-genetical variability was carried out with the purpose of separating two components in the inter-population variability - the first is engaged to the genetically determined variability of biological characteristics intrinsic for this species, and the second is responsible for the variability originating from anthropogenic contamination of the natural habitat. Changes of these two types of variability were studied in dependence on time and techno

  16. Cytogenetic variability in pinus sylvestris L. populations experiencing anthropogenic influence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oudalova, A.; Geras' kin, S.; Vasiliev, D.; Dikarev, V. [Russian Institute of Agricultural Radiology and Agroecology, Obninsk (Russian Federation)

    2004-07-01

    Techno-genic pollution has become one of the most significant ecological factors determining biosphere existence and development. An analysis of genetic consequences of the radiation accidents in the South Urals and Chernobyl has shown that mutation and recombination processes are considerably accelerated in plant and animal's populations experiencing techno-genic influence. This implies that there are complicated adaptation processes leading to changes in genetic structure of populations and increasing genetic load. Pinus sylvestris L. populations growing at the territory of the 'radon' Leningrad regional radioactive waste reprocessing enterprise and Sosnovy Bor town were monitored 6 years (1997-2002) by a set of cyto-genetical and morphological tests. Cytogenetic damage levels within intercalary meristem of needle as well as in root meristem of seedlings were found to significantly exceed corresponding controls. A higher radioresistance of the Scots pine seeds analyzed was demonstrated with an acute {gamma}-radiation that also revealed a selection process directed at an enhancement of repair efficiency and resulting in a shift of mean values of radioresistance in populations towards higher values. An enlargement of variance of studied cytogenetic parameters was found in the populations experiencing techno-genic influence. This indicates, with an account of phenomenon of the enhanced radioresistance, that there are processes of cyto-genetical adaptation in the investigated regions. An analysis of the structure of ecological-genetical variability was carried out with the purpose of separating two components in the inter-population variability - the first is engaged to the genetically determined variability of biological characteristics intrinsic for this species, and the second is responsible for the variability originating from anthropogenic contamination of the natural habitat. Changes of these two types of variability were studied in dependence on

  17. What is the impact on fish recruitment of anthropogenic physical and structural habitat change in shallow nearshore areas in temperate systems? A systematic review protocol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacUra, B.; Lönnstedt, O.M.; Byström, P.

    2016-01-01

    and spawning habitats of many fish and other aquatic species. Several coastal fish populations have seen marked declines in abundance and diversity during the past two decades. A systematic review on the topic would clarify if anthropogenic physical and structural changes of near-shore areas have effects...... on fish recruitment and which these effects are. Methods: The review will examine how various physical and structural anthropogenic changes of nearshore fish habitats affect fish recruitment. Relevant studies include small- and large-scale field studies in marine and brackish systems or large lakes......Background: Shallow nearshore marine ecosystems are changing at an increasing rate due to a range of human activities such as urbanisation and commercial development. The growing numbers of constructions and other physical and structural alterations of the shoreline often take place in nursery...

  18. Arctic systems in the Quaternary: ecological collision, faunal mosaics and the consequences of a wobbling climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoberg, E P; Cook, J A; Agosta, S J; Boeger, W; Galbreath, K E; Laaksonen, S; Kutz, S J; Brooks, D R

    2017-07-01

    Climate oscillations and episodic processes interact with evolution, ecology and biogeography to determine the structure and complex mosaic that is the biosphere. Parasites and parasite-host assemblages are key components in a general explanatory paradigm for global biodiversity. We explore faunal assembly in the context of Quaternary time frames of the past 2.6 million years, a period dominated by episodic shifts in climate. Climate drivers cross a continuum from geological to contemporary timescales and serve to determine the structure and distribution of complex biotas. Cycles within cycles are apparent, with drivers that are layered, multifactorial and complex. These cycles influence the dynamics and duration of shifts in environmental structure on varying temporal and spatial scales. An understanding of the dynamics of high-latitude systems, the history of the Beringian nexus (the intermittent land connection linking Eurasia and North America) and downstream patterns of diversity depend on teasing apart the complexity of biotic assembly and persistence. Although climate oscillations have dominated the Quaternary, contemporary dynamics are driven by tipping points and shifting balances emerging from anthropogenic forces that are disrupting ecological structure. Climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing has supplanted a history of episodic variation and is eliminating ecological barriers and constraints on development and distribution for pathogen transmission. A framework to explore interactions of episodic processes on faunal structure and assembly is the Stockholm Paradigm, which appropriately shifts the focus from cospeciation to complexity and contingency in explanations of diversity.

  19. Dynamic soil properties in response to anthropogenic disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, Veerle; Ortega, Raúl

    2013-04-01

    Anthropogenic disturbance of natural vegetation can profoundly alter the physical, chemical and biological processes within soils. Rapid removal of topsoil during intense farming can result in an imbalance between soil production through chemical weathering and physical erosion, with direct implications on local biogeochemical cycling. However, the feedbacks between soil erosion, chemical weathering and biogeochemical cycling in response to anthropogenic forcing are not yet fully understood. Here, we study dynamic soil properties for a rapidly changing anthropogenic landscape, and focus on the coupling between physical erosion, soil production and soil chemical weathering. The archaeological site of Santa Maria de Melque (Toledo, Central Spain) was selected for its remarkably long occupation history dating back to the 7th century AD. As part of the agricultural complex, four retention reservoirs were built in the Early Middle Ages. The sedimentary archive was used to track the evolution in sedimentation rates and geochemical properties of the sediment. Catchment-wide soil erosion rates vary slightly between the various occupation phases (7th century-now), but are of the same magnitude as the cosmogenic nuclide-derived erosion rates. However, there exists large spatial variation in physical erosion rates that are coupled with chemical weathering intensities. The sedimentary records suggest that there are important changes in the spatial pattern of sediment source areas through time as a result of changing land use patterns

  20. Community ecology, climate change and ecohydrology in desert grassland and shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew Daniel Petrie

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation explores the climate, ecology and hydrology of Chihuahuan Desert ecosystems in the context of global climate change. In coming decades, the southwestern United States is projected to experience greater temperature-driven aridity, possible small decreases in annual precipitation, and a later onset of summer monsoon rainfall. These changes may have...

  1. Urban Evolutionary Ecology and the Potential Benefits of Implementing Genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schell, Christopher J

    2018-02-14

    Urban habitats are quickly becoming exceptional models to address adaptation under rapid environmental change, given the expansive temporal and spatial scales with which anthropogenic landscape conversion occurs. Urban ecologists in the last 10-15 years have done an extraordinary job of highlighting phenotypic patterns that correspond with urban living, as well as delineating urban population structure using traditional genetic markers. The underpinning genetic mechanisms that govern those phenotypic patterns, however, are less well established. Moreover, the power of traditional molecular studies is constrained by the number of markers being evaluated, which limits the potential to assess fine-scale population structure potentially common in urban areas. With the recent proliferation of low-cost, high-throughput sequencing methods, we can begin to address an emerging question in urban ecology: are species adapted to local optima within cities or are they expressing latent phenotypic plasticity? Here, I provide a comprehensive review of previous urban ecological studies, with special focus on the molecular ecology and phenotypic adjustments documented in urban terrestrial and amphibious fauna. I subsequently pinpoint areas in the literature that could benefit from a genomic investigation and briefly discuss the suitability of specific techniques in addressing eco-evolutionary questions within urban ecology. Though many challenges exist with implementing genomics into urban ecology, such studies provide an exceptional opportunity to advance our understanding of eco-evolutionary processes in metropolitan areas. © The American Genetic Association 2018. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Contact structure, mobility, environmental impact and behaviour: the importance of social forces to infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, Ronan F; Gurley, Emily S; Salje, Henrik; Bloomfield, Laura S P; Jones, James H

    2017-05-05

    Human factors, including contact structure, movement, impact on the environment and patterns of behaviour, can have significant influence on the emergence of novel infectious diseases and the transmission and amplification of established ones. As anthropogenic climate change alters natural systems and global economic forces drive land-use and land-cover change, it becomes increasingly important to understand both the ecological and social factors that impact infectious disease outcomes for human populations. While the field of disease ecology explicitly studies the ecological aspects of infectious disease transmission, the effects of the social context on zoonotic pathogen spillover and subsequent human-to-human transmission are comparatively neglected in the literature. The social sciences encompass a variety of disciplines and frameworks for understanding infectious diseases; however, here we focus on four primary areas of social systems that quantitatively and qualitatively contribute to infectious diseases as social-ecological systems. These areas are social mixing and structure, space and mobility, geography and environmental impact, and behaviour and behaviour change. Incorporation of these social factors requires empirical studies for parametrization, phenomena characterization and integrated theoretical modelling of social-ecological interactions. The social-ecological system that dictates infectious disease dynamics is a complex system rich in interacting variables with dynamically significant heterogeneous properties. Future discussions about infectious disease spillover and transmission in human populations need to address the social context that affects particular disease systems by identifying and measuring qualitatively important drivers.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. AEDT: A new concept for ecological dynamics in the ever-changing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesson, Peter

    2017-05-01

    The important concept of equilibrium has always been controversial in ecology, but a new, more general concept, an asymptotic environmentally determined trajectory (AEDT), overcomes many concerns with equilibrium by realistically incorporating long-term climate change while retaining much of the predictive power of a stable equilibrium. A population or ecological community is predicted to approach its AEDT, which is a function of time reflecting environmental history and biology. The AEDT invokes familiar questions and predictions but in a more realistic context in which consideration of past environments and a future changing profoundly due to human influence becomes possible. Strong applications are also predicted in population genetics, evolution, earth sciences, and economics.

  4. Birds of the US-Mexico borderlands: Distribution, ecology and conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruth, Janet M.; Brush, Tim; Krueper, David J.

    2008-01-01

    The concept for this volume began as a scientifi c symposium at the North American Ornithological Conference (NAOC) in Veracruz, Mexico in October 2006. The symposium was entitled “Avian Distributional Change, Anthropogenic Challenges, and Recent Avian Research and Technological Advances within the US–Mexico Border Region,” and was cochaired by two of us (DJK and TB) along with Carol Beardmore (Sonoran Joint Venture) and Bill Howe (USDI Fish and Wildlife Service). In light of the importance of the borderland region for birds and bird conservation, and because of the great need for additional information about this poorly studied region, we have compiled this volume to present new information about bird distribution, ecology, and conservation.

  5. Changes of Bulgarian Coastal Dune Landscape under Anthropogenic Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazov, A.; Young, R.; Stancheva, M.; Stanchev, H.

    2012-04-01

    At one time large sand dune formations were widely distributed along the Bulgarian coast. However, due to increased urbanization in the coastal zone, the areas of total dune landscape has been constantly reduced. Dunes presently comprise only 10% of the entire 412 km long coastline of Bulgaria: they embrace a total length of 38.57 km and a total area of 8.78 km2 Important tasks in dune protection are identification of landscape changes for a certain period of time and accurate delineation of sand dune areas. The present research traces sand dune changes along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast over a 27 year period (1983-2010). This period includes also the time of expanded tourist boom and overbuilding of the coastal zone, and respectively presents the largest dune changes and reductions. Based on the landscape change analyst in GIS environment the study also aims to explore the importance of different natural and human factors in driving the observed dune alterations and destruction. To detect and assess dune changes during the last 3 decades, we used data for sand dunes derived from several sources at different time periods in order to compare changes in shoreline positions, dune contours and areas: i) Topographic maps in 1:5,000 scale from 1983; ii) Modern Very High Resolution orthophotographs from 2006 and 2010; iii) QuickBird Very High Resolution satellite images from 2009; iv) Statistical information for population and tourist infrastructure is also used to consider the influence of human pressure and hotel developments on the dune dynamics. In addition, for more detailed description and visualization of main dune types, digital photos have been taken at many parts of the Bulgarian coast. The study was performed in GIS environment. Based on the results obtained the dunes along the Bulgarian coast were divided into three main groups with relation to the general factors responsible for their alterations: i) Dunes that have decreased in result of shoreline retreat

  6. Getting the message across: using ecological integrity to communicate with resource managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Brian R.; Tierney, Geraldine L.; Schweiger, E. William; Miller, Kathryn M.; Faber-Langendoen, Don; Grace, James B.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter describes and illustrates how concepts of ecological integrity, thresholds, and reference conditions can be integrated into a research and monitoring framework for natural resource management. Ecological integrity has been defined as a measure of the composition, structure, and function of an ecosystem in relation to the system’s natural or historical range of variation, as well as perturbations caused by natural or anthropogenic agents of change. Using ecological integrity to communicate with managers requires five steps, often implemented iteratively: (1) document the scale of the project and the current conceptual understanding and reference conditions of the ecosystem, (2) select appropriate metrics representing integrity, (3) define externally verified assessment points (metric values that signify an ecological change or need for management action) for the metrics, (4) collect data and calculate metric scores, and (5) summarize the status of the ecosystem using a variety of reporting methods. While we present the steps linearly for conceptual clarity, actual implementation of this approach may require addressing the steps in a different order or revisiting steps (such as metric selection) multiple times as data are collected. Knowledge of relevant ecological thresholds is important when metrics are selected, because thresholds identify where small changes in an environmental driver produce large responses in the ecosystem. Metrics with thresholds at or just beyond the limits of a system’s range of natural variability can be excellent, since moving beyond the normal range produces a marked change in their values. Alternatively, metrics with thresholds within but near the edge of the range of natural variability can serve as harbingers of potential change. Identifying thresholds also contributes to decisions about selection of assessment points. In particular, if there is a significant resistance to perturbation in an ecosystem, with threshold

  7. Change: Threat or opportunity for human progress V. 5. Ecological change: Environment, development and poverty linkages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirdar, U [ed.

    1992-01-01

    This volume consists of 18 articles that examine the changing ecological balance of the world and its effect on human prosperity. The problems caused by global warning, climate change and environmental degradation will have serious effects in both the short and the long term. Two of the 18 articles fall within INIS scope: these have been indexed separately. Tabs.

  8. Change: Threat or opportunity for human progress? V. 5. Ecological change: Environment, development and poverty linkages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirdar, U.

    1992-01-01

    This volume consists of 18 articles that examine the changing ecological balance of the world and its effect on human prosperity. The problems caused by global warning, climate change and environmental degradation will have serious effects in both the short and the long term. Two of the 18 articles fall within INIS scope: these have been indexed separately. Tabs

  9. Effectiveness of marine protected areas in managing the drivers of ecosystem change: a case of Mnazi Bay Marine Park, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machumu, Milali Ernest; Yakupitiyage, Amararatne

    2013-04-01

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) are being promoted in Tanzania to mitigate the drivers of ecosystem change such as overfishing and other anthropogenic impacts on marine resources. The effectiveness of MPAs in managing those drivers was assessed in three ecological zones, seafront, mangrove, and riverine of Mnazi Bay Marine Park, using Participatory Community Analysis techniques, questionnaire survey, checklist and fishery resource assessment methods. Eleven major drivers of ecosystem change were identified. Resource dependence had a major effect in all ecological zones of the park. The results indicated that the park's legislations/regulations, management procedures, and conservation efforts are reasonably effective in managing its resources. The positive signs accrued from conservation efforts have been realized by the communities in terms of increased catch/income, awareness and compliance. However, some natural and anthropogenic drivers continued to threaten the park's sustainability. Furthermore, implementation of resource use and benefit sharing mechanisms still remained a considerable challenge to be addressed.

  10. Comparative bacterial community analysis in relatively pristine and anthropogenically influenced mangrove ecosystems on the Red Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullah, Riaz; Yasir, Muhammad; Khan, Imran; Bibi, Fehmida; Sohrab, Sayed Sartaj; Al-Ansari, Ahmed; Al-Abbasi, Fahad; Al-Sofyani, Abdulmohsin A; Daur, Ihsanullah; Lee, Seon-Woo; Azhar, Esam I

    2017-08-01

    Mangrove habitats are ecologically important ecosystems that are under severe pressure worldwide because of environmental changes and human activities. In this study, 16S rRNA gene amplicon deep-sequencing was used to compare bacterial communities in Red Sea mangrove ecosystems at anthropogenically influenced coastal sites with those at a relatively pristine island site. In total, 32 phyla were identified from the mangrove rhizospheres, with Proteobacteria predominating at each of the studied sites; however, the relative abundance was significantly decreased at the coastal sites (Mastorah, MG-MS; Ar-Rayis, MG-AR) compared with the pristine island site near Dhahban (MG-DBI). The phyla Actinobacteria, Firmicutes, Acidobacteria, Chloroflexi, Spirochetes, and Planctomycetes were present at a relative abundance of >1% at the MG-MS and MG-AR sites, but their concentration was <1% at the MG-DBI site. A total of 1659 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were identified at the species level, and approximately 945 OTUs were shared across the different sampling sites. Multivariate principal coordinate data analysis separated the MG-DBI site from the MG-AR and MG-MS cluster. Specific bacterial taxa were enriched at each location, and in particular, the genera Pseudoalteromonas and Cobetia were predominantly identified in the MG-DBI site compared with the anthropogenically influenced coastal sites.

  11. Environmental risk of climate change and groundwater abstraction on stream ecological conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige; Bøgh, Eva; Jensen, Niels H.

    with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model. The relative and combined impacts on low flows, groundwater levels, and nitrate leaching are quantified and compared to assess the water resource sensitivity...... and risk to stream ecological conditions. We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher...... flows and groundwater levels are of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future...

  12. Current anthropogenes and issues of soil ecology of Kazakstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bel'gibaev, M.E.; Faizov, K.Sh.

    1996-01-01

    Information on ecological condition of soils on the Kazakhstan territory is cited. Loss of soils fertility because of erosion, deflation and pollution by heavy metals has been registered almost in all regions. Total soil degradation conducts to its desertification and landscape destabilization. In particular, in West Kazakstan there is nuclear site 'Kapustin Yar' functioned more than 45 years. On the site with total area of 1.4 mil. ha there were 29 nuclear explosions carried out (19-underground, 10-atmosphere), 29 000 missiles were set off as well. In the result the vast territory of top-soil is contaminated by radionuclides, heavy metals, residues of missiles fuels. Today underground cavities, formed after nuclear explosions on the Azgir site, have used as depositories for storage of high contaminated biologically dangerous radioactive substances

  13. Ecologically relevant levels of multiple, common marine stressors suggest antagonistic effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Rolanda; Marshall, Dustin

    2017-07-24

    Stressors associated with global change will be experienced simultaneously and may act synergistically, so attempts to estimate the capacity of marine systems to cope with global change requires a multi-stressor approach. Because recent evidence suggests that stressor effects can be context-dependent, estimates of how stressors are experienced in ecologically realistic settings will be particularly valuable. To enhance our understanding of the interplay between environmental effects and the impact of multiple stressors from both natural and anthropogenic sources, we conducted a field experiment. We explored the impact of multiple, functionally varied stressors from both natural and anthropogenic sources experienced during early life history in a common sessile marine invertebrate, Bugula neritina. Natural spatial environmental variation induced differences in conspecific densities, allowing us to test for density-driven context-dependence of stressor effects. We indeed found density-dependent effects. Under high conspecific density, individual survival increased, which offset part of the negative effects of experiencing stressors. Experiencing multiple stressors early in life history translated to a decreased survival in the field, albeit the effects were not as drastic as we expected: our results are congruent with antagonistic stressor effects. We speculate that when individual stressors are more subtle, stressor synergies become less common.

  14. Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Shankar Adhikari; Himlal Baral; Craig Nitschke

    2018-01-01

    Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS) to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being...

  15. Smart social adaptation prevents catastrophic ecological regime shifts in networks of myopic harvesters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, Jonathan; Lucht, Wolfgang; Wiedermann, Marc; Heitzig, Jobst; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    In the anthropocene, the rise of global social and economic networks with ever increasing connectivity and speed of interactions, e.g., the internet or global financial markets, is a key challenge for sustainable development. The spread of opinions, values or technologies on these networks, in conjunction with the coevolution of the network structures themselves, underlies nexuses of current concern such as anthropogenic climate change, biodiversity loss or global land use change. To isolate and quantitatively study the effects and implications of network dynamics for sustainable development, we propose an agent-based model of information flow on adaptive networks between myopic harvesters that exploit private renewable resources. In this conceptual model of a network of socio-ecological systems, information on management practices flows between agents via boundedly rational imitation depending on the state of the resource stocks involved in an interaction. Agents can also adapt the structure of their social network locally by preferentially connecting to culturally similar agents with identical management practices and, at the same time, disconnecting from culturally dissimilar agents. Investigating in detail the statistical mechanics of this model, we find that an increasing rate of information flow through faster imitation dynamics or growing density of network connectivity leads to a marked increase in the likelihood of environmental resource collapse. However, we show that an optimal rate of social network adaptation can mitigate this negative effect without loss of social cohesion through network fragmentation. Our results highlight that seemingly immaterial network dynamics of spreading opinions or values can be of large relevance for the sustainable management of socio-ecological systems and suggest smartly conservative network adaptation as a strategy for mitigating environmental collapse. Hence, facing the great acceleration, these network dynamics should

  16. Transitions in Arctic ecosystems: Ecological implications of a changing hydrological regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrona, Frederick J.; Johansson, Margareta; Culp, Joseph M.; Jenkins, Alan; Mârd, Johanna; Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Prowse, Terry D.; Vincent, Warwick F.; Wookey, Philip A.

    2016-03-01

    Numerous international scientific assessments and related articles have, during the last decade, described the observed and potential impacts of climate change as well as other related environmental stressors on Arctic ecosystems. There is increasing recognition that observed and projected changes in freshwater sources, fluxes, and storage will have profound implications for the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and ecological processes and properties of Arctic terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. However, a significant level of uncertainty remains in relation to forecasting the impacts of an intensified hydrological regime and related cryospheric change on ecosystem structure and function. As the terrestrial and freshwater ecology component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review these uncertainties and recommend enhanced coordinated circumpolar research and monitoring efforts to improve quantification and prediction of how an altered hydrological regime influences local, regional, and circumpolar-level responses in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Specifically, we evaluate (i) changes in ecosystem productivity; (ii) alterations in ecosystem-level biogeochemical cycling and chemical transport; (iii) altered landscapes, successional trajectories, and creation of new habitats; (iv) altered seasonality and phenological mismatches; and (v) gains or losses of species and associated trophic interactions. We emphasize the need for developing a process-based understanding of interecosystem interactions, along with improved predictive models. We recommend enhanced use of the catchment scale as an integrated unit of study, thereby more explicitly considering the physical, chemical, and ecological processes and fluxes across a full freshwater continuum in a geographic region and spatial range of hydroecological units (e.g., stream-pond-lake-river-near shore marine environments).

  17. Emerging Themes in the Ecology and Management of North American Forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharik, T.L.; Adair, W.; Baker, F.A.

    2010-01-01

    The 7th North American Forest Ecology Workshop, consisting of 149 presentations in 16 oral sessions and a poster session, reflected a broad range of topical areas currently under investigation in forest ecology and management. There was an overarching emphasis on the role of disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic, in the dynamics of forest ecosystems, and the recognition that legacies from past disturbances strongly influence future trajectories. Climate was invoked as a major driver of ecosystem change. An emphasis was placed on application of research findings for predicting system responses to changing forest management initiatives. Several needs emerged from the discussions regarding approaches to the study of forest ecosystems, including (1) consideration of variable spatial and temporal scales, (2) long-term monitoring, (3) development of universal databases more encompassing of time and space to facilitate meta-analyses, (4) combining field studies and modeling approaches, (5) standardizing methods of measurement and assessment, (6) guarding against oversimplification or over generalization from limited site-specific results, (7) greater emphasis on plant-animal interactions, and (8) better alignment of needs and communication of results between researchers and managers.

  18. Emerging Themes in the Ecology and Management of North American Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terry L. Sharik

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The 7th North American Forest Ecology Workshop, consisting of 149 presentations in 16 oral sessions and a poster session, reflected a broad range of topical areas currently under investigation in forest ecology and management. There was an overarching emphasis on the role of disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic, in the dynamics of forest ecosystems, and the recognition that legacies from past disturbances strongly influence future trajectories. Climate was invoked as a major driver of ecosystem change. An emphasis was placed on application of research findings for predicting system responses to changing forest management initiatives. Several “needs” emerged from the discussions regarding approaches to the study of forest ecosystems, including (1 consideration of variable spatial and temporal scales, (2 long-term monitoring, (3 development of universal databases more encompassing of time and space to facilitate meta-analyses, (4 combining field studies and modeling approaches, (5 standardizing methods of measurement and assessment, (6 guarding against oversimplification or overgeneralization from limited site-specific results, (7 greater emphasis on plant-animal interactions, and (8 better alignment of needs and communication of results between researchers and managers.

  19. Emerging themes in the ecology and management of North American forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharik, Terry L.; Adair, William; Baker, Fred A.; Battaglia, Michael; Comfort, Emily J.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Delong, Craig; DeRose, R. Justin; Ducey, Mark J.; Harmon, Mark; Levy, Louise; Logan, Jesse A.; O'Brien, Joseph; Palik, Brian J.; Roberts, Scott D.; Rogers, Paul C.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Spies, Thomas; Taylor, Sarah L.; Woodall, Christopher; Youngblood, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    The 7th North American Forest Ecology Workshop, consisting of 149 presentations in 16 oral sessions and a poster session, reflected a broad range of topical areas currently under investigation in forest ecology and management. There was an overarching emphasis on the role of disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic, in the dynamics of forest ecosystems, and the recognition that legacies from past disturbances strongly influence future trajectories. Climate was invoked as a major driver of ecosystem change. An emphasis was placed on application of research findings for predicting system responses to changing forest management initiatives. Several “needs” emerged from the discussions regarding approaches to the study of forest ecosystems, including (1) consideration of variable spatial and temporal scales, (2) long-term monitoring, (3) development of universal databases more encompassing of time and space to facilitate meta-analyses, (4) combining field studies and modeling approaches, (5) standardizing methods of measurement and assessment, (6) guarding against oversimplification or overgeneralization from limited site-specific results, (7) greater emphasis on plant-animal interactions, and (8) better alignment of needs and communication of results between researchers and managers.

  20. Ecology of zoonotic infectious diseases in bats: current knowledge and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayman, D.T.; Bowen, R.A.; Cryan, P.M.; McCracken, G.F.; O'Shea, T.J.; Peel, A.J.; Gilbert, A.; Webb, C.T.; Wood, J.L.

    2013-01-01

    Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics.

  1. Ecology of Zoonotic Infectious Diseases in Bats: Current Knowledge and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayman, D T S; Bowen, R A; Cryan, P M; McCracken, G F; O’Shea, T J; Peel, A J; Gilbert, A; Webb, C T; Wood, J L N

    2013-01-01

    Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics. PMID:22958281

  2. Application of Satellite Remote Sensing to Identify Climatic and Anthropogenic Changes Related to Water and Health Conditions in Emerging Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.

    2014-12-01

    By 2050, more than 70% of the world's population is expected to be living in a city. In many of the urbanizing regions in Asia and Africa, most new development is taking place without adequate urban or regional planning, and a majority population is crowded into densely populated unplanned settlements, also known as slums. During the same period, precipitation and temperature patterns are likely to see significant changes in many of these regions while coastal megacities will have to accommodate sea-level rise in their ecosystems. The rapid increase in population is usually observed in fringes of the urban sprawl without adequate water or sanitation facilities or access to other municipal amenities (such as utilities, healthcare, and education). Collectively, these issues make the ever increasing slum dwellers in emerging megacities significantly vulnerable to a combination of climatic and anthropogenic threats. However, how the growth of unplanned urban and peri-urban sprawl and simultaneous change in climatic patterns have impacted public health in the emerging megacities remain largely unexplored due to lack of readily available and usable data. We employ a number of Remote Sensing products (GRACE, LANDSAT, MODIS) to bridge above knowledge gaps and to identify relevant hydrologic and anthropogenic changes in emerging megacities that are most vulnerable due to the climate-water-health nexus. We explore one of the largest and the fastest growing megacities in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh - on identifying and investigating the changes in the water environment and growth of slum areas, and impact on water services and health outcomes. The hydroclimatology of South Asia is highly seasonal and the asymmetric availability of water affects vast areas of Bangladesh differently in space and time, exposing the population of Dhaka region to both droughts and floods and periodic spring-fall outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera and rotavirus. This research

  3. A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Britta L Timpane-Padgham

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9, population- (6, community- (7, ecosystem- (7, or process-level attributes (16. Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1 including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2 considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3 certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to

  4. A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpane-Padgham, Britta L; Beechie, Tim; Klinger, Terrie

    2017-01-01

    Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9), population- (6), community- (7), ecosystem- (7), or process-level attributes (16). Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1) including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2) considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3) certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to confer

  5. Quantifying anthropogenically driven morphologic changes on a barrier island: Fire Island National Seashore, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2012-01-01

    Beach scraping, beach replenishment, and the presence of moderate development have altered the morphology of the dune–beach system at Fire Island National Seashore, located on a barrier island on the south coast of Long Island, New York. Seventeen communities are interspersed with sections of natural, nonmodified land within the park boundary. Beach width, dune elevation change, volume change, and shoreline change were calculated from light detection and ranging (LIDAR), real-time kinematic global positioning system (RTK GPS), and beach profile data sets at two ∼4 km long study sites. Each site contains both modified (developed, replenished, and/or scraped) and nonmodified (natural) areas. The analysis spans 9 years, from 1998 to 2007, which encompasses both scraping and replenishment events at Fire Island. The objectives of this study were to quantify and compare morphological changes in modified and nonmodified zones, and to identify erosional areas within the study sites.Areas of increased volume and shoreline accretion were observed at both sites and at the western site are consistent with sand replenishment activities. The results indicate that from 1998 to 2007 locations backed by development and that employed beach scraping and/or replenishment as erosion control measures experienced more loss of volume, width, and dune elevation as compared with adjacent nonmodified areas. A detailed analysis of one specific modification, beach scraping, shows distinct morphological differences in scraped areas relative to nonscraped areas of the beach. In general, scraped areas where there is development on the dunes showed decreases in all measured parameters and are more likely to experience overwash during storm events. Furthermore, the rapid mobilization of material from the anthropogenic (scraped) dune results in increased beach accretion downcoast.National park lands are immediately adjacent to developed areas on Fire Island, and even relatively small human

  6. Unsupervised Multi-Scale Change Detection from SAR Imagery for Monitoring Natural and Anthropogenic Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajadi, Olaniyi A.

    Radar remote sensing can play a critical role in operational monitoring of natural and anthropogenic disasters. Despite its all-weather capabilities, and its high performance in mapping, and monitoring of change, the application of radar remote sensing in operational monitoring activities has been limited. This has largely been due to: (1) the historically high costs associated with obtaining radar data; (2) slow data processing, and delivery procedures; and (3) the limited temporal sampling that was provided by spaceborne radar-based satellites. Recent advances in the capabilities of spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors have developed an environment that now allows for SAR to make significant contributions to disaster monitoring. New SAR processing strategies that can take full advantage of these new sensor capabilities are currently being developed. Hence, with this PhD dissertation, I aim to: (i) investigate unsupervised change detection techniques that can reliably extract signatures from time series of SAR images, and provide the necessary flexibility for application to a variety of natural, and anthropogenic hazard situations; (ii) investigate effective methods to reduce the effects of speckle and other noise on change detection performance; (iii) automate change detection algorithms using probabilistic Bayesian inferencing; and (iv) ensure that the developed technology is applicable to current, and future SAR sensors to maximize temporal sampling of a hazardous event. This is achieved by developing new algorithms that rely on image amplitude information only, the sole image parameter that is available for every single SAR acquisition.. The motivation and implementation of the change detection concept are described in detail in Chapter 3. In the same chapter, I demonstrated the technique's performance using synthetic data as well as a real-data application to map wildfire progression. I applied Radiometric Terrain Correction (RTC) to the data to

  7. Red Sea Acropora hemprichii Bacterial Population Dynamics under Adverse Anthropogenic Conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Lizcano, Javier

    2012-08-01

    Reef-building corals are cornerstones of life in the oceans. Understanding their interactions with microorganisms and their surrounding physicochemical conditions is important to comprehend reef functioning and ultimately protect coral reef ecosystems. Corals associate with a complex and specific array of microorganisms that supposedly affect their physiology and therefore can significantly determine the condition of a coral ecosystem. As environmental conditions may shape bacterial diversity and ecology in the coral symbiosis, ecosystem changes might have unfavorable consequences for the holobiont, to date poorly understood. Here, we were studying microbial community changes in A. hemprichii as a consequence of simulated eutrophication and overfishing over a period of 16 weeks by using in situ caging and slow release fertilizer treatments in an undisturbed Red Sea reef (22.18ºN, 38.57ºW). We used 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing to evaluate the individual and combined effects of overnutrification and fishing pressure, two of the most common local threats to coral reefs. With our data we hope to better understand bacterial population dynamics under anthropogenic influences and its role in coral resilience. Projecting further, this data will be useful to better predict the consequences of human activity on reef ecosystems.

  8. Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: I. An introduction to the project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, A.S.; Palacios-Fest, M. R.; McGill, J.; Swarzenski, P.W.; Verschuren, D.; Sinyinza, R.; Songori, T.; Kakagozo, B.; Syampila, M.; O'Reilly, C. M.; Alin, S.R.

    2005-01-01

    We investigated paleolimnological records from a series of river deltas around the northeastern rim of Lake Tanganyika, East Africa (Tanzania and Burundi) in order to understand the history of anthropogenic activity in the lake's catchment over the last several centuries, and to determine the impact of these activities on the biodiversity of littoral and sublittoral lake communities. Sediment pollution caused by increased rates of soil erosion in deforested watersheds has caused significant changes in aquatic communities along much of the lake's shoreline. We analyzed the effects of sediment discharge on biodiversity around six deltas or delta complexes on the east coast of Lake Tanganyika: the Lubulungu River delta, Kabesi River delta, Nyasanga/Kahama River deltas, and Mwamgongo River delta in Tanzania; and the Nyamuseni River delta and Karonge/Kirasa River deltas in Burundi. Collectively, these deltas and their associated rivers were chosen to represent a spectrum of drainage-basin sizes and disturbance levels. By comparing deltas that are similar in watershed attributes (other than disturbance levels), our goal was to explore a series of historical "experiments" at the watershed scale, with which we could more clearly evaluate hypotheses of land use or other effects on nearshore ecosystems. Here we discuss these deltas, their geologic and physiographic characteristics, and the field procedures used for coring and sampling the deltas, and various indicators of anthropogenic impact. ?? Springer 2005.

  9. Mangroves on the Edge: Anthrome-Dependent Fragmentation Influences Ecological Condition (Turbo, Colombia, Southern Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Felipe Blanco-Libreros

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Marine protected areas are commonly seen as the most effective strategy for protecting mangroves from external human pressures but little is known about the role of public land-tenure contexts (dense settlements, agricultural or range lands and wild anthromes on clearing rates, patch properties, and ecological condition. We addressed the following questions using a peri-urban to wild gradient along the anthropogenic coastal-scape in Turbo Municipality (Colombia, Southern Caribbean: Do the different deforestation rates observed under peri-urban, rural, military-protected and wild land-use-and-tenure contexts, promote distinctive fragmentation patterns? Do these patterns influence loggers’ access and ultimately ecosystem ecological condition? Loss rate (1938–2009 was the greatest peri-urban mangroves and positively correlated with urban edge and patch density. Pasture edge was highest in rural mangroves while mean patch area was higher in protected and wild mangroves. An Anthropogenic Disturbance Index (ADI was strongly correlated with reduced mean patch area and increased patch density, due to increased trampling and logging, that ultimately promoted high densities of thin (diameter: <5 cm Laguncularia racemosa trees but had no significant effect on the presence of a dominant benthic gastropod. In conclusion, both protection and remoteness were effective in reducing anthropogenic edges and fragmentation, and thus contributed to a high ecological condition in mangroves at a major deforestation hotspot.

  10. Evolutionary responses by native species to major anthropogenic changes to their ecosystems: Pacific salmon in the Columbia River hydropower system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waples, Robin S; Zabel, Richard W; Scheuerell, Mark D; Sanderson, Beth L

    2008-01-01

    The human footprint is now large in all the Earth's ecosystems, and construction of large dams in major river basins is among the anthropogenic changes that have had the most profound ecological consequences, particularly for migratory fishes. In the Columbia River basin of the western USA, considerable effort has been directed toward evaluating demographic effects of dams, yet little attention has been paid to evolutionary responses of migratory salmon to altered selective regimes. Here we make a first attempt to address this information gap. Transformation of the free-flowing Columbia River into a series of slack-water reservoirs has relaxed selection for adults capable of migrating long distances upstream against strong flows; conditions now favour fish capable of migrating through lakes and finding and navigating fish ladders. Juveniles must now be capable of surviving passage through multiple dams or collection and transportation around the dams. River flow patterns deliver some groups of juvenile salmon to the estuary later than is optimal for ocean survival, but countervailing selective pressures might constrain an evolutionary response toward earlier migration timing. Dams have increased the cost of migration, which reduces energy available for sexual selection and favours a nonmigratory life history. Reservoirs are a benign environment for many non-native species that are competitors with or predators on salmon, and evolutionary responses are likely (but undocumented). More research is needed to tease apart the relative importance of evolutionary vs. plastic responses of salmon to these environmental changes; this research is logistically challenging for species with life histories like Pacific salmon, but results should substantially improve our understanding of key processes. If the Columbia River is ever returned to a quasinatural, free-flowing state, remaining populations might face a Darwinian debt (and temporarily reduced fitness) as they struggle to

  11. National parks, ecological integrity and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopoukhine, N.

    1990-01-01

    The potential impacts of climate change on the national parks of Canada are discussed. There is a requirement to protect and manage national parks to maintain a functioning ecosystem with all its parts and processes. An active management regime is necessary, with objectives of ecological diversity/integrity clearly stated. The national parks located in the Canadian Prairie provinces are on or near transitions from forest to tundra and grasslands, and are likely to exhibit the most dramatic changes. The change in vegetation of such parks and in others will not manifest itself simply as a shift of zones but will be accompanied by a flora with new dominants. The boreal forest within the Prairie provinces is fire dependent and has the potential of being transformed into remnant units should post-fire germination be hampered by climatic change. A rapid change in climate would render national parks unable to provide protection of representative elements of Canada's landscapes as presently known. A threefold increase in the area dedicated to protection is a basic component of the sustainable development prescription. All government and private lands dedicated to protection should be forged into a network, to provide core protection for immigrating and emigrating communities and individual species displaced by a changing climate. 20 refs., 2 figs

  12. The influence of climate variability and change on the science and practice of restoration ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald A. Falk; Connie Millar

    2016-01-01

    Variation in Earth’s climate system has always been a primary driver of ecosystem processes and biological evolution. In recent decades, however, the prospect of anthropogenically driven change to the climate system has become an increasingly dominant concern for scientists and conservation biologists. Understanding how ecosystems may...

  13. Ecological Land Fragmentation Evaluation and Dynamic Change of a Typical Black Soil Farming Area in Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhan Liu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Ecological land is a land use category provided with considerable ecological value and a vital indicator reflecting regional eco-environmental quality. However, it has experienced severe fragmentation during the rapid urbanization in China which strongly threatened the regional ecological security, land use pattern and human living environment. Therefore, analysis of spatiotemporal change of ecological land use and ecological landscape pattern is particularly essential. In this paper, a case study was made in Nong’an County, which is a typical black soil farming area located in northeast China facing severe conflicts among cultivated land protection, urban expansion and ecological security. A landscape fragmentation evaluation model was proposed to measure the degree of regional ecological land fragmentation. We also determined the land use change features through the methods of dynamic change information exploration and by performing transfer trajectory analysis during the period from 1996 to 2014. The results showed that the ecological land in Nong’an County has experienced increasing fragmentation during the past 18 years. The statistical results showed that the land transition between ecological land and other land categories was quite frequent, and it especially appeared as a dramatic decline of grassland and severe increase of saline-alkali land. In addition, human interferences especially construction activities and cultivated land occupation were still the dominant factors to the fragmentation of ecological land and the frequent transition among the land use categories. The fragmentation degree showed a downward tendency at the end of the study, which indicated noticeable benefits of land use regulation and land protection policies directed towards land ecological value. This study aims to provide a scientific evaluation model for measuring ecological land fragmentation degree, and figure out the regional land use transition

  14. Ecological implications of extreme events: footprints of the 2010 earthquake along the Chilean coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaramillo, Eduardo; Dugan, Jenifer E; Hubbard, David M; Melnick, Daniel; Manzano, Mario; Duarte, Cristian; Campos, Cesar; Sanchez, Roland

    2012-01-01

    Deciphering ecological effects of major catastrophic events such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, storms and fires, requires rapid interdisciplinary efforts often hampered by a lack of pre-event data. Using results of intertidal surveys conducted shortly before and immediately after Chile's 2010 M(w) 8.8 earthquake along the entire rupture zone (ca. 34-38°S), we provide the first quantification of earthquake and tsunami effects on sandy beach ecosystems. Our study incorporated anthropogenic coastal development as a key design factor. Ecological responses of beach ecosystems were strongly affected by the magnitude of land-level change. Subsidence along the northern rupture segment combined with tsunami-associated disturbance and drowned beaches. In contrast, along the co-seismically uplifted southern rupture, beaches widened and flattened increasing habitat availability. Post-event changes in abundance and distribution of mobile intertidal invertebrates were not uniform, varying with land-level change, tsunami height and coastal development. On beaches where subsidence occurred, intertidal zones and their associated species disappeared. On some beaches, uplift of rocky sub-tidal substrate eliminated low intertidal sand beach habitat for ecologically important species. On others, unexpected interactions of uplift with man-made coastal armouring included restoration of upper and mid-intertidal habitat seaward of armouring followed by rapid colonization of mobile crustaceans typical of these zones formerly excluded by constraints imposed by the armouring structures. Responses of coastal ecosystems to major earthquakes appear to vary strongly with land-level change, the mobility of the biota and shore type. Our results show that interactions of extreme events with human-altered shorelines can produce surprising ecological outcomes, and suggest these complex responses to landscape alteration can leave lasting footprints in coastal ecosystems.

  15. Developing A Transdisciplinary Process and Community Partnerships to Anticipate Climate Change at the Local Level: The Role of Biophysical and Sociocultural Calendars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassam, K. A.; Samimi, C.; Trabucco, A.

    2017-12-01

    Difference is essential to solving the most complex problems faced by humanity. Anthropogenic climate change is one such "wicked problem" that demands cognitive diversity. Biophysical and social scientists must collaborate with scholars from the humanities to address practical issues of concern to local communities, which are at the forefront of impacts of climatic variation. As such, communities of inquirers (e.g. biophysical and social sciences, humanities) must work in tandem with communities of practice (e.g. farmers, fishers, gatherers, herders, hunters). This leads to co-generated knowledge where an adaptation strategy to climatic variation is locally grounded in the biophysical and sociocultural context of the communities where the impacts of climatic variation are most felt. We will present an innovative and `real time' example participatory and transdisciplinary research from an international project where we are developing integrated biophysical and sociocultural calendars, in short, ecological calendars, which are ecologically and culturally grounded in the local context to develop anticipatory capacity to anthropogenic climate change.

  16. Ecology and Evolution: Islands of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benz, Richard

    This book was designed for middle and junior high school science classes and focuses on island biogeography, ecology, and evolution. Sections include: (1) "Galapagos: Frame of Reference"; (2) "Ecology and Islands"; and (3) "Evolution." Nineteen standards-based activities use the Galapagos Islands as a running theme…

  17. Climate change on Twitter: Content, media ecology and information sharing behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltri, Giuseppe A; Atanasova, Dimitrinka

    2017-08-01

    This article presents a study of the content, use of sources and information sharing about climate change analysing over 60,000 tweets collected using a random week sample. We discuss the potential for studying Twitter as a communicative space that is rich in different types of information and presents both new challenges and opportunities. Our analysis combines automatic thematic analysis, semantic network analysis and text classification according to psychological process categories. We also consider the media ecology of tweets and the external web links that users shared. In terms of content, the network of topics uncovered presents a multidimensional discourse that accounts for complex causal links between climate change and its consequences. The media ecology analysis revealed a narrow set of sources with a major role played by traditional media and that emotionally arousing text was more likely to be shared.

  18. Ecological Sustainability of Birds in Boreal Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Niemi

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available We review characteristics of birds in boreal forests in the context of their ecological sustainability under both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. We identify the underlying ecological factors associated with boreal bird populations and their variability, review the interactions between boreal bird populations and disturbance, and describe some tools on how boreal bird populations may be conserved in the future. The boreal system has historically been an area with extensive disturbance such as fire, insect outbreaks, and wind. In addition, the boreal system is vulnerable to global climate change as well as increasing pressure on forest and water resources. Current knowledge indicates that birds play an important role in boreal forests, and sustaining these populations affords many benefits to the health of boreal forests. Many issues must be approached with caution, including the lack of knowledge on our ability to mimic natural disturbance regimes with management, our lack of understanding on fragmentation due to logging activity, which is different from permanent conversion to other land uses such as agriculture or residential area, and our lack of knowledge on what controls variability in boreal bird populations or the linkage between bird population fluctuations and productivity. The essential role that birds can provide is to clarify important ecological concerns and variables that not only will help to sustain bird populations, but also will contribute to the long-term health of the boreal forest for all species, including humans.

  19. Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.

    2016-02-01

    Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021

  20. Anthropogenic impact on diazotrophic diversity in the mangrove rhizosphere revealed by nifH pyrosequencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Hongmei; Xia, Xiaomin; Liu, Hongbin; Zhou, Zhi; Wu, Chen; Nagarajan, Sanjay

    2015-01-01

    Diazotrophs in the mangrove rhizosphere play a major role in providing new nitrogen to the mangrove ecosystem and their composition and activity are strongly influenced by anthropogenic activity and ecological conditions. In this study, the diversity of the diazotroph communities in the rhizosphere sediment of five tropical mangrove sites with different levels of pollution along the north and south coastline of Singapore were studied by pyrosequencing of the nifH gene. Bioinformatics analysis revealed that in all the studied locations, the diazotroph communities comprised mainly of members of the diazotrophic cluster I and cluster III. The detected cluster III diazotrophs, which were composed entirely of sulfate-reducing bacteria, were more abundant in the less polluted locations. The metabolic capacities of these diazotrophs indicate the potential for bioremediation and resiliency of the ecosystem to anthropogenic impact. In heavily polluted locations, the diazotrophic community structures were markedly different and the diversity of species was significantly reduced when compared with those in a pristine location. This, together with the increased abundance of Marinobacterium, which is a bioindicator of pollution, suggests that anthropogenic activity has a negative impact on the genetic diversity of diazotrophs in the mangrove rhizosphere.

  1. The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

    2016-01-01

    A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models, globally distributed data sets, and complex laboratory and data collection procedures. Here we examine efforts by the scientific community and educational researchers to design new curricula and technology that close this gap and impart robust AGCC and Earth Science understanding. We find technology-based teaching shows promise in promoting robust AGCC understandings if associated curricula address mitigating factors such as time constraints in incorporating technology and the need to support teachers implementing AGCC and Earth Science inquiry. We recommend the scientific community continue to collaborate with educational researchers to focus on developing those inquiry technologies and curricula that use realistic scientific processes from AGCC research and/or the methods for determining how human society should respond to global change.

  2. Anthropogenic influence of small urban watercourses - Case study from the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svobodova, Eva; Jakubinsky, Jiri; Bacova, Radka; Kubicek, Petr; Herber, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Rivers and streams in the urban areas are losing natural environmental values. There is especially small watercourses issue, where there exists the lack of river management and interest of municipalities. The main used methods are based on the field research of river landscape, mapping and inventory of anthropogenic landforms and determination of Channel Capacity Coefficient (CCC). We establish the list of anthropogenic landforms, which we divide to the five categories - industrial, agrarian, urban, transport network, and water management structures. Values of the channel morphologic parameters - width of channel, width of riverbed, and the degree of countersink - are measured for Channel Capacity Coefficient calculation. Pattern of objects shrinking transverse profile and limiting the smooth flow are investigated beside the morphological features. Resulting from the application of these theoretical methods are several practical outputs. Firstly, we construct thematic grid cell monitoring maps (a) count of anthropogenic landforms in the floodplain; (b) weighted average of landform, whose weight was determined on the basis of their influence on the impact of floods. Secondly, we identify pattern distribution of the watercourses channel capacity in the selected study areas. Thirdly, we confirm existence of the urban stream syndrome which is characterized by consistently observed ecological degradation of brooks. The main symptoms of degradation are the altered channel morphology, occurrence of flashfloods, and the rate of ecological stability. Above mentioned characteristics were applied in two different catchments in the Czech Republic - the Leskava Brook and the Lacnovsky Brook. Both streams flow through the urban area in the diverse natural conditions and with various historical development. The Leskava Brook is situated in the southern part of Brno in the Southern Moravia, and the Lacnovsky Brook, lies in the northern part of Svitavy town on the border of Moravia

  3. Simulated anthropogenic CO2 storage and acidification of the Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Palmiéri

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Constraints on the Mediterranean Sea's storage of anthropogenic CO2 are limited, coming only from data-based approaches that disagree by more than a factor of two. Here we simulate this marginal sea's anthropogenic carbon storage by applying a perturbation approach in a high-resolution regional model. Our model simulates that, between 1800 and 2001, basin-wide CO2 storage by the Mediterranean Sea has increased by 1.0 Pg C, a lower limit based on the model's weak deep-water ventilation, as revealed by evaluation with CFC-12. Furthermore, by testing a data-based approach (transit time distribution in our model, comparing simulated anthropogenic CO2 to values computed from simulated CFC-12 and physical variables, we conclude that the associated basin-wide storage of 1.7 Pg, published previously, must be an upper bound. Out of the total simulated storage of 1.0 Pg C, 75% comes from the air–sea flux into the Mediterranean Sea and 25% comes from net transport from the Atlantic across the Strait of Gibraltar. Sensitivity tests indicate that the Mediterranean Sea's higher total alkalinity, relative to the global-ocean mean, enhances the Mediterranean's total inventory of anthropogenic carbon by 10%. Yet the corresponding average anthropogenic change in surface pH does not differ significantly from the global-ocean average, despite higher total alkalinity. In Mediterranean deep waters, the pH change is estimated to be between −0.005 and −0.06 pH units.

  4. Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

    2018-01-01

    Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

  5. Responses of Surface Ozone Air Quality to Anthropogenic Nitrogen Deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, L.; Zhao, Y.; Tai, A. P. K.; Chen, Y.; Pan, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Human activities have substantially increased atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen to the Earth's surface, inducing unintentional effects on ecosystems with complex environmental and climate consequences. One consequence remaining unexplored is how surface air quality might respond to the enhanced nitrogen deposition through surface-atmosphere exchange. We combine a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and a global land model (Community Land Model) to address this issue with a focus on ozone pollution in the Northern Hemisphere. We consider three processes that are important for surface ozone and can be perturbed by addition of atmospheric deposited nitrogen: emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ozone dry deposition, and soil nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. We find that present-day anthropogenic nitrogen deposition (65 Tg N a-1 to the land), through enhancing plant growth (represented as increases in vegetation leaf area index (LAI) in the model), could increase surface ozone from increased biogenic VOC emissions, but could also decrease ozone due to higher ozone dry deposition velocities. Meanwhile, deposited anthropogenic nitrogen to soil enhances soil NOx emissions. The overall effect on summer mean surface ozone concentrations show general increases over the globe (up to 1.5-2.3 ppbv over the western US and South Asia), except for some regions with high anthropogenic NOx emissions (0.5-1.0 ppbv decreases over the eastern US, Western Europe, and North China). We compare the surface ozone changes with those driven by the past 20-year climate and historical land use changes. We find that the impacts from anthropogenic nitrogen deposition can be comparable to the climate and land use driven surface ozone changes at regional scales, and partly offset the surface ozone reductions due to land use changes reported in previous studies. Our study emphasizes the complexity of biosphere-atmosphere interactions, which can have important

  6. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  7. Integrating scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacoby, H.D.; Yang, Z.

    1994-01-01

    The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is conducting research on methods for integrating the science of potential global change with economic analysis of litigation policies and quantification of economic and environmental impacts. The paper describes this work, with a focus on the way that research within the various contributing disciplines, and the design of their associated models, are influenced by the process of inclusion in an integrated framework for policy analysis. The results should contribute new insight into the relative importance of key feedbacks within the economy-climate-ecology system

  8. Ecological Security and Ecosystem Services in Response to Land Use Change in the Coastal Area of Jiangsu, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiyao Xu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization, and the resulting land use/cover change, is a primary cause of the degradation of coastal wetland ecosystems. Reclamation projects are seen as a way to strike a balance between socioeconomic development and maintenance of coastal ecosystems. Our aim was to understand the ecological changes to Jiangsu’s coastal wetland resulting from land use change since 1977 by using remote sensing and spatial analyses. The results indicate that: (1 The area of artificial land use expanded while natural land use was reduced, which emphasized an increase in production-orientated land uses at the expense of ecologically important wetlands; (2 It took 34 years for landscape ecological security and 39 years for ecosystem services to regain equilibrium. The coastal reclamation area would recover ecological equilibrium only after a minimum of 30 years; (3 The total ecosystem service value decreased significantly from $2.98 billion per year to $2.31 billion per year from 1977 to 2014. Food production was the only one ecosystem service function that consistently increased, mainly because of government policy; (4 The relationship between landscape ecological security and ecosystem services is complicated, mainly because of the scale effect of landscape ecology. Spatial analysis of changing gravity centers showed that landscape ecological security and ecosystem service quality became better in the north than the south over the study period.

  9. Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2009-01-01

    The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show...... that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1...

  10. Risks for marine coastal ecosystems from anthropogenic loading in the Leningrad NPP environs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimina, L.; Zimin, V.; Shchukina, T.; Pomiluiko, G.; Ryabova, V.

    1998-01-01

    Data on conditions and variations in phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish communities, chlorophyll 'a' and hydrochemical parameters in the coastal waters of Koporskaya Bay (cooling water body of the Leningrad NPP) were analyzed. The most significant anthropogenic factors issued from the Leningrad nuclear power plant activity are of non-radioactive character, as it was recognized during long-time (20 years) ecological monitoring. Main factors influenced ecosystem of the NPP cooling water body are thermal water discharge and nutrient outflows from the bay catchment area. (authors)

  11. Used lubricants and ecological problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evdokimov, A.Yu.; Dzhamalov, A.A.; Lashkhi, V.L.

    1993-01-01

    This planet is undergoing a severe ecological crisis. The consequent problems include not only how to prevent the destruction of contemporary civilization, but also how to preserve mankind as a biological species. In the onset of this crisis, used lubricants (ULs) play a role that is by no means the least important. Every year, the worldwide discharge of petroleum products to the biosphere is approximately 6 million tonnes, of which more than 50% consists of ULs. The ecologically dangerous components of both commercial lubricants and used lubricants are the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that are originally present in crude oil; polyhalobiphenyls, mainly polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) of anthropogenic origin; sulfur- and chlorine-containing additives; a number of biocides; organic compounds of metals (lead, barium, antimony, zinc); and nitrites. These substances are distributed in the atmosphere, water, and soil, entering the food chain and appearing in foodstuffs. Moreover, hydrocarbons of petroleum and synthetic oils with a low degree of biodegradability (10-30%) accumulate in the environment and may shift the ecological equilibrium (accelerated multiplication and mutation of microorganisms that assimilate petroleum products). 32 refs., 1 fig

  12. Biological diversity, ecology and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jutro, P.R.

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat they may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results

  13. The adaptation of coral reefs to climate change: Is the Red Queen being outpaced?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Coral reefs have enormous value in terms of biodiversity and the ecosystem goods and services that they provide to hundreds of millions of people around the world. These important ecosystems are facing rapidly increasing pressure from climate change, particularly ocean warming and acidification. A centrally important question is whether reef-building corals and the ecosystems they build will be able to acclimate, adapt, or migrate in response to rapid anthropogenic climate change. This issue is explored in the context of the current environmental change, which is largely unprecedented in rate and scale and which are exceeding the capacity of coral reef ecosystems to maintain their contribution to human well-being through evolutionary and ecological processes. On the balance of evidence, the ‘Red Queen’ (an analogy previously used by evolutionary biologists is clearly being ‘left in the dust’ with evolutionary processes that are largely unable to maintain the status quo of coral reef ecosystems under the current high rates of anthropogenic climate change.

  14. Anthropogenic climate change and allergen exposure: The role of plant biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziska, Lewis H; Beggs, Paul J

    2012-01-01

    Accumulation of anthropogenic gases, particularly CO(2), is likely to have 2 fundamental effects on plant biology. The first is an indirect effect through Earth's increasing average surface temperatures, with subsequent effects on other aspects of climate, such as rainfall and extreme weather events. The second is a direct effect caused by CO(2)-induced stimulation of photosynthesis and plant growth. Both effects are likely to alter a number of fundamental aspects of plant biology and human health, including aerobiology and allergic diseases, respectively. This review highlights the current and projected effect of increasing CO(2) and climate change in the context of plants and allergen exposure, emphasizing direct effects on plant physiologic parameters (eg, pollen production) and indirect effects (eg, fungal sporulation) related to diverse biotic and abiotic interactions. Overall, the review assumes that future global mitigation efforts will be limited and suggests a number of key research areas that will assist in adapting to the ongoing challenges to public health associated with increased allergen exposure. Published by Mosby, Inc.

  15. University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

    2017-01-01

    This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching. This review identifies both the strengths and weaknesses of each of these case studies. It is the first to go beyond examining the impact of specific inquiry instructional approaches to offer a synthesis of cases. We find that inquiry teaching can succeed by concretising scientific processes, providing access to global data and evidence, imparting critical and higher order thinking about AGCC science policy and contextualising learning with places and scientific facts. We recommend educational researchers and scientists collaborate to create and refine curricula that utilise geospatial technologies, climate models and communication technologies to bring students into contact with scientists, climate data and authentic AGCC research processes. Many available science education technologies and curricula also require further research to maximise trade-offs between implementation and training costs and their educational value.

  16. Effects of the hippopotamus on the chemistry and ecology of a changing watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stears, Keenan; McCauley, Douglas J; Finlay, Jacques C; Mpemba, James; Warrington, Ian T; Mutayoba, Benezeth M; Power, Mary E; Dawson, Todd E; Brashares, Justin S

    2018-05-29

    Cross-boundary transfers of nutrients can profoundly shape the ecology of recipient systems. The common hippopotamus, Hippopotamus amphibius , is a significant vector of such subsidies from terrestrial to river ecosystems. We compared river pools with high and low densities of H. amphibius to determine how H. amphibius subsidies shape the chemistry and ecology of aquatic communities. Our study watershed, like many in sub-Saharan Africa, has been severely impacted by anthropogenic water abstraction reducing dry-season flow to zero. We conducted observations for multiple years over wet and dry seasons to identify how hydrological variability influences the impacts of H. amphibius During the wet season, when the river was flowing, we detected no differences in water chemistry and nutrient parameters between pools with high and low densities of H. amphibius Likewise, the diversity and abundance of fish and aquatic insect communities were indistinguishable. During the dry season, however, high-density H. amphibiu s pools differed drastically in almost all measured attributes of water chemistry and exhibited depressed fish and insect diversity and fish abundance compared with low-density H. amphibius pools. Scaled up to the entire watershed, we estimate that H. amphibius in this hydrologically altered watershed reduces dry-season fish abundance and indices of gamma-level diversity by 41% and 16%, respectively, but appears to promote aquatic invertebrate diversity. Widespread human-driven shifts in hydrology appear to redefine the role of H. amphibius , altering their influence on ecosystem diversity and functioning in a fashion that may be more severe than presently appreciated.

  17. Evaluation of anthropogenic urban soils. Final report; Bewertung anthropogener Stadtboeden. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blume, H.P.; Schleuss, U. [eds.

    1997-12-31

    The research project `Evaluation of Anthropogenic Urban Soils` was subsidized by the German Federal Ministry of Education, Science, Research and Technology and adviced by the working group `Stadtboeden` of the German Society of Soil Science. It was realized as a cooperation between the universities of Berlin (TU), Halle-Wittenberg, Hohenheim, Kiel and Rostock and had three objectives: - to characterize soils developed from anthropogenic substratums (`urban soils`), - to figure out distribution patterns of such soils and - to verify whether urban soils could be evaluated according to their filtering and habitat function in the same way as soils developed from natural parent material. Evaluation methods based on easily obtainable field data had to be adapted to `urban soils` respectively developed anew. For that reason some typical soils of anthropogenic lithogenesis had to be examined between 1993 and 1996 both on their importance as habitats for plants and soil organisms and on their filtering, buffering and transforming capacities for organic and inorganic pollutants. Accordingly representative `urban soils` were gathered in the towns of Berlin, Eckernfoerde, Essen, Halle, Kiel, Rostock and Stuttgart; these soils had developed from technogenic substratums (brick and mortar debris, municipal waste, ashes, slag, sludge) and redeposited alkaline resp. acidic natural substratums (mud, coal mine and coking plant deposits). Some of the soils were influenced by ground water, and all soils developed from the same kind of parent material belonged to different stages of development. (orig./SR) [Deutsch] Ziele des vom BMBF gefoerderten und vom Arbeitskreis Stadtboeden der Deutschen Bodenkundlichen Gesellschaft beratenen Verbundprojektes `Bewertung anthropogener Stadtboeden` waren die Charakterisierung von Boeden anthropogener Substrate, die exemplarische Ermittlung des Verteilungsmusters derartiger Boeden und die Pruefung, inwieweit sie sich aehnlich den Boeden natuerlicher

  18. Anthropogenic noise playback impairs embryonic development and increases mortality in a marine invertebrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nedelec, Sophie L.; Radford, Andrew N.; Simpson, Stephen D.; Nedelec, Brendan; Lecchini, David; Mills, Suzanne C.

    2014-07-01

    Human activities can create noise pollution and there is increasing international concern about how this may impact wildlife. There is evidence that anthropogenic noise may have detrimental effects on behaviour and physiology in many species but there are few examples of experiments showing how fitness may be directly affected. Here we use a split-brood, counterbalanced, field experiment to investigate the effect of repeated boat-noise playback during early life on the development and survival of a marine invertebrate, the sea hare Stylocheilus striatus at Moorea Island (French Polynesia). We found that exposure to boat-noise playback, compared to ambient-noise playback, reduced successful development of embryos by 21% and additionally increased mortality of recently hatched larvae by 22%. Our work, on an understudied but ecologically and socio-economically important taxon, demonstrates that anthropogenic noise can affect individual fitness. Fitness costs early in life have a fundamental influence on population dynamics and resilience, with potential implications for community structure and function.

  19. New directions in coral reef microbial ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garren, Melissa; Azam, Farooq

    2012-04-01

    Microbial processes largely control the health and resilience of coral reef ecosystems, and new technologies have led to an exciting wave of discovery regarding the mechanisms by which microbial communities support the functioning of these incredibly diverse and valuable systems. There are three questions at the forefront of discovery: What mechanisms underlie coral reef health and resilience? How do environmental and anthropogenic pressures affect ecosystem function? What is the ecology of microbial diseases of corals? The goal is to understand the functioning of coral reefs as integrated systems from microbes and molecules to regional and ocean-basin scale ecosystems to enable accurate predictions of resilience and responses to perturbations such as climate change and eutrophication. This review outlines recent discoveries regarding the microbial ecology of different microenvironments within coral ecosystems, and highlights research directions that take advantage of new technologies to build a quantitative and mechanistic understanding of how coral health is connected through microbial processes to its surrounding environment. The time is ripe for natural resource managers and microbial ecologists to work together to create an integrated understanding of coral reef functioning. In the context of long-term survival and conservation of reefs, the need for this work is immediate. © 2011 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Temporal and spatial patterns of anthropogenic disturbance at McMurdo Station, Antarctica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennicutt, Mahlon C II; Klein, Andrew; Montagna, Paul; Palmer, Terence; Sweet, Stephen; Wade, Terry; Sericano, Jose; Denoux, Guy

    2010-01-01

    Human visitations to Antarctica have increased in recent decades, raising concerns about preserving the continent's environmental quality. To understand the spatial and temporal patterns of anthropogenic disturbances at the largest scientific station in Antarctica, McMurdo Station, a long-term monitoring program has been implemented. Results from the first nine years (1999-2007) of monitoring are reported. Most physical disturbance of land surfaces occurred prior to 1970 during initial establishment of the station. Hydrocarbons from fuel and anthropogenic metals occur in patches of tens to hundreds of square meters in areas of fuel usage and storage. Most soil contaminant concentrations are not expected to elicit biological responses. Past disposal practices have contaminated marine sediments with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), petroleum hydrocarbons, and metals in close proximity to the station that often exceed concentrations expected to elicit biological responses. Chemical contamination and organic enrichment reduced marine benthic ecological integrity within a few hundred meters offshore of the station. Contaminants were detected in marine benthic organisms confirming bioavailability and uptake. PCBs in sediments are similar to suspected source materials, indicating minimal microbial degradation decades after release. Anthropogenic disturbance of the marine environment is likely to persist for decades. A number of monitoring design elements, indicators and methodologies used in temperate climates were effective and provide guidance for monitoring programs elsewhere in Antarctica.

  1. About the Atlantic Ecology Division (AED) of EPA's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Atlantic Ecology Division (AED), conducts innovative research and predictive modeling to assess and forecast the risks of anthropogenic stressors to near coastal waters and their watersheds, to develop tools to support resilient watersheds.

  2. Quantifying Anthropogenic Stress on Groundwater Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Alizadeh, Amin; Mousavi Baygi, Mohammad; R Moftakhari, Hamed; Mirchi, Ali; Anjileli, Hassan; Madani, Kaveh

    2017-10-10

    This study explores a general framework for quantifying anthropogenic influences on groundwater budget based on normalized human outflow (h out ) and inflow (h in ). The framework is useful for sustainability assessment of groundwater systems and allows investigating the effects of different human water abstraction scenarios on the overall aquifer regime (e.g., depleted, natural flow-dominated, and human flow-dominated). We apply this approach to selected regions in the USA, Germany and Iran to evaluate the current aquifer regime. We subsequently present two scenarios of changes in human water withdrawals and return flow to the system (individually and combined). Results show that approximately one-third of the selected aquifers in the USA, and half of the selected aquifers in Iran are dominated by human activities, while the selected aquifers in Germany are natural flow-dominated. The scenario analysis results also show that reduced human withdrawals could help with regime change in some aquifers. For instance, in two of the selected USA aquifers, a decrease in anthropogenic influences by ~20% may change the condition of depleted regime to natural flow-dominated regime. We specifically highlight a trending threat to the sustainability of groundwater in northwest Iran and California, and the need for more careful assessment and monitoring practices as well as strict regulations to mitigate the negative impacts of groundwater overexploitation.

  3. Move it or lose it? The ecological ethics of relocating species under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minteer, Ben A; Collins, James P

    2010-10-01

    Managed relocation (also known as assisted colonization, assisted migration) is one of the more controversial proposals to emerge in the ecological community in recent years. A conservation strategy involving the translocation of species to novel ecosystems in anticipation of range shifts forced by climate change, managed relocation (MR) has divided many ecologists and conservationists, mostly because of concerns about the potential invasion risk of the relocated species in their new environments. While this is indeed an important consideration in any evaluation of MR, moving species across the landscape in response to predicted climate shifts also raises a number of larger and important ethical and policy challenges that need to be addressed. These include evaluating the implications of a more aggressive approach to species conservation, assessing MR as a broader ecological policy and philosophy that departs from longstanding scientific and management goals focused on preserving ecological integrity, and considering MR within a more comprehensive ethical and policy response to climate change. Given the complexity and novelty of many of the issues at stake in the MR debate, a more dynamic and pragmatic approach to ethical analysis and debate is needed to help ecologists, conservationists, and environmental decision makers come to grips with MR and the emerging ethical challenges of ecological policy and management under global environmental change.

  4. Simulations of the global carbon cycle and anthropogenic CO2 transient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarmiento, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    This research focuses on improving the understanding of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide transient using observations and models of the past and present. In addition, an attempt is made to develop an ability to predict the future of the carbon cycle in response to continued anthropogenic perturbations and climate change. Three aspects of the anthropogenic carbon budget were investigated: (1) the globally integrated budget at the present time; (2) the time history of the carbon budget; and (3) the spatial distribution of carbon fluxes. One of the major activities of this study was the participation in the model comparison study of Enting, et al. [1994] carried out in preparation for the IPCC 1994 report

  5. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

    2017-03-27

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

  6. Non-indigenous plant species and their ecological range in Central European pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests

    OpenAIRE

    Zerbe , Stefan; Wirth , Petra

    2006-01-01

    International audience; In this study, forest ecosystems were analysed with regard to the occurrence and ecological range of non-indigenous plant species. Pine forests in the NE German lowland, which naturally and anthropogenically occur on a broad range of different sites, were taken as an example. The analysis is based on a data set of about 2 300 vegetation plots. The ecological range was assessed applying Ellenberg's ecological indicator values. Out of a total of 362 taxa recorded in the ...

  7. Natural and anthropogenic change in the morphology and connectivity of tidal channels of southwest Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C.; Goodbred, S. L., Jr.; Wallace Auerbach, L.; Ahmed, K. R.; Small, C.; Sams, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    Over the last century, land use changes in the Ganges-Brahmaputra tidal delta have transformed >5000 km2 of intertidal mangrove forest to densely inhabited, agricultural islands that have been embanked to protect against tides and storm surges (i.e., polders). More recently, the conversion of rice paddies to profitable shrimp aquaculture has become increasingly widespread. Recent field studies documented that poldering in southwest Bangladesh has resulted in an elevation deficit relative to that of the natural mangrove forests and mean high water (MHW). The offset is a function of lost sedimentation, enhanced compaction, and an effective rise in MHW from tidal amplification. The morphologic adjustment of the tidal channel network to these perturbations, however, has gone largely undocumented. One effect has been the shoaling of many channels due to decreases in fluvial discharge and tidal prism. We document a previously unrecognized anthropogenic component: the widespread closure of large conduit tidal channels for land reclamation and shrimp farming. GIS analysis of historical Landsat and Google Earth imagery within six 1000 km2 study areas reveals that the tidal network in the natural Sundarbans mangrove forest has remained relatively constant since the 1970s, while significant changes are observed in human-modified areas. Construction of the original embankments removed >1000 km of primary tidal creeks, and >80 km2 of land has been reclaimed outside of polders through the closure of formerly active tidal channels (decrease in mean channel width from 256±91 m to 25±10 m). Tidal restriction by large sluice gates is prevalent, favoring local channel siltation. Furthermore, severing the intertidal platform and large conduit channels from the tidal network has had serious repercussions, such as increased lateral migration and straightening of the remaining channels. Where banklines have eroded, the adjacent embankments appear to be more vulnerable to failure, as

  8. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity in Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fayle, Tom Maurice; Sam, Kateřina

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 1 (2017), s. 145-188 ISSN 2045-7758 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : data sharing * global biodiversity modeling * global change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 2.440, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.2579/abstract

  9. Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Cai, Wenju; Yang, Yang

    2018-02-01

    Severe haze pollution in eastern China has caused substantial health impacts and economic loss. Conducive atmospheric conditions are important to affect occurrence of severe haze events, and circulation changes induced by future global climate warming are projected to increase the frequency of such events. However, a potential contribution of an anthropogenic influence to recent most severe haze (December 2015 and January 2013) over eastern China remains unclear. Here we show that the anthropogenic influence, which is estimated by using large ensemble runs with a climate model forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, has already increased the probability of the atmospheric patterns conducive to severe haze by at least 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively. We further confirm that simulated atmospheric circulation pattern changes induced by anthropogenic influence are driven mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that more strict reductions in pollutant emissions are needed under future anthropogenic warming.

  10. The ecological impacts of marine debris: unraveling the demonstrated evidence from what is perceived.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochman, Chelsea M; Browne, Mark Anthony; Underwood, A J; van Franeker, Jan A; Thompson, Richard C; Amaral-Zettler, Linda A

    2016-02-01

    Anthropogenic debris contaminates marine habitats globally, leading to several perceived ecological impacts. Here, we critically and systematically review the literature regarding impacts of debris from several scientific fields to understand the weight of evidence regarding the ecological impacts of marine debris. We quantified perceived and demonstrated impacts across several levels of biological organization that make up the ecosystem and found 366 perceived threats of debris across all levels. Two hundred and ninety-six of these perceived threats were tested, 83% of which were demonstrated. The majority (82%) of demonstrated impacts were due to plastic, relative to other materials (e.g., metals, glass) and largely (89%) at suborganismal levels (e.g., molecular, cellular, tissue). The remaining impacts, demonstrated at higher levels of organization (i.e., death to individual organisms, changes in assemblages), were largely due to plastic marine debris (> 1 mm; e.g., rope, straws, and fragments). Thus, we show evidence of ecological impacts from marine debris, but conclude that the quantity and quality of research requires improvement to allow the risk of ecological impacts of marine debris to be determined with precision. Still, our systematic review suggests that sufficient evidence exists for decision makers to begin to mitigate problematic plastic debris now, to avoid risk of irreversible harm.

  11. Continental cichlid radiations: functional diversity reveals the role of changing ecological opportunity in the Neotropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbour, Jessica Hilary; López-Fernández, Hernán

    2016-08-17

    Adaptive radiations have been hypothesized to contribute broadly to the diversity of organisms. Models of adaptive radiation predict that ecological opportunity and ecological release, the availability of empty ecological niches and the response by adapting lineages to occupy them, respectively, drive patterns of phenotypic and lineage diversification. Adaptive radiations driven by 'ecological opportunity' are well established in island systems; it is less clear if ecological opportunity influences continent-wide diversification. We use Neotropical cichlid fishes to test if variation in rates of functional evolution is consistent with changing ecological opportunity. Across a functional morphological axis associated with ram-suction feeding traits, evolutionary rates declined through time as lineages diversified in South America. Evolutionary rates of ram-suction functional morphology also appear to have accelerated as cichlids colonized Central America and encountered renewed opportunity. Our results suggest that ecological opportunity may play an important role in shaping patterns of morphological diversity of even broadly distributed lineages like Neotropical cichlids. © 2016 The Author(s).

  12. Ecological implications of extreme events: footprints of the 2010 earthquake along the Chilean coast.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Jaramillo

    Full Text Available Deciphering ecological effects of major catastrophic events such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, storms and fires, requires rapid interdisciplinary efforts often hampered by a lack of pre-event data. Using results of intertidal surveys conducted shortly before and immediately after Chile's 2010 M(w 8.8 earthquake along the entire rupture zone (ca. 34-38°S, we provide the first quantification of earthquake and tsunami effects on sandy beach ecosystems. Our study incorporated anthropogenic coastal development as a key design factor. Ecological responses of beach ecosystems were strongly affected by the magnitude of land-level change. Subsidence along the northern rupture segment combined with tsunami-associated disturbance and drowned beaches. In contrast, along the co-seismically uplifted southern rupture, beaches widened and flattened increasing habitat availability. Post-event changes in abundance and distribution of mobile intertidal invertebrates were not uniform, varying with land-level change, tsunami height and coastal development. On beaches where subsidence occurred, intertidal zones and their associated species disappeared. On some beaches, uplift of rocky sub-tidal substrate eliminated low intertidal sand beach habitat for ecologically important species. On others, unexpected interactions of uplift with man-made coastal armouring included restoration of upper and mid-intertidal habitat seaward of armouring followed by rapid colonization of mobile crustaceans typical of these zones formerly excluded by constraints imposed by the armouring structures. Responses of coastal ecosystems to major earthquakes appear to vary strongly with land-level change, the mobility of the biota and shore type. Our results show that interactions of extreme events with human-altered shorelines can produce surprising ecological outcomes, and suggest these complex responses to landscape alteration can leave lasting footprints in coastal

  13. Ultra-High Foraging Rates of Harbor Porpoises Make Them Vulnerable to Anthropogenic Disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisniewska, Danuta Maria; Johnson, Mark; Teilmann, Jonas; Rojano-Doñate, Laia; Shearer, Jeanne; Sveegaard, Signe; Miller, Lee A; Siebert, Ursula; Madsen, Peter Teglberg

    2016-06-06

    The question of how individuals acquire and allocate resources to maximize fitness is central in evolutionary ecology. Basic information on prey selection, search effort, and capture rates are critical for understanding a predator's role in its ecosystem and for predicting its response to natural and anthropogenic disturbance. Yet, for most marine species, foraging interactions cannot be observed directly. The high costs of thermoregulation in water require that small marine mammals have elevated energy intakes compared to similar-sized terrestrial mammals [1]. The combination of high food requirements and their position at the apex of most marine food webs may make small marine mammals particularly vulnerable to changes within the ecosystem [2-4], but the lack of detailed information about their foraging behavior often precludes an informed conservation effort. Here, we use high-resolution movement and prey echo recording tags on five wild harbor porpoises to examine foraging interactions in one of the most metabolically challenged cetacean species. We report that porpoises forage nearly continuously day and night, attempting to capture up to 550 small (3-10 cm) fish prey per hour with a remarkable prey capture success rate of >90%. Porpoises therefore target fish that are smaller than those of commercial interest, but must forage almost continually to meet their metabolic demands with such small prey, leaving little margin for compensation. Thus, for these "aquatic shrews," even a moderate level of anthropogenic disturbance in the busy shallow waters they share with humans may have severe fitness consequences at individual and population levels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Climate and Anthropogenic Change in Aquatic Environments: A Cross Ecosystem Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    contrac- tions of species habitat ranges and alter physiological processes, both of which can translate to significant disrup- tions in the ecological ...threatened by rising tempera- tures and ocean acidification. Among the threatened organisms are the planktonic larvae of many ecologically and economically...habitats, from the rocky mid-ocean ridges, submarine canyons, trenches, and seamounts , to the island-like chemoautotrophic cold seeps, hydrothermal

  15. Climate change-related migration and infectious disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Celia

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change will have significant impacts on both human migration and population health, including infectious disease. It will amplify and alter migration pathways, and will contribute to the changing ecology and transmission dynamics of infectious disease. However there has been limited consideration of the intersections between migration and health in the context of a changing climate. This article argues that climate-change related migration - in conjunction with other drivers of migration - will contribute to changing profiles of infectious disease. It considers infectious disease risks for different climate-related migration pathways, including: forced displacement, slow-onset migration particularly to urban-poor areas, planned resettlement, and labor migration associated with climate change adaptation initiatives. Migration can reduce vulnerability to climate change, but it is critical to better understand and respond to health impacts - including infectious diseases - for migrant populations and host communities.

  16. The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Alam, S.J.; Dijk, van J.; Rounsevell, T.; Spek, T.; Brink, van den A.

    2015-01-01

    Context Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers

  17. The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, Martha; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry; Rounsevell, Mark; Spek, Teun; van den Brink, Adri

    2015-01-01

    Context: Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers

  18. Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2017-02-01

    While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  19. The political ecology of climate change adaptation livelihoods, agrarian change and the conflicts of development

    CERN Document Server

    Taylor, Marcus

    2014-01-01

    This book provides the first systematic critique of the concept of climate change adaptation within the field of international development. Drawing on a reworked political ecology framework, it argues that climate is not something 'out there' that we adapt to. Instead, it is part of the social and biophysical forces through which our lived environments are actively yet unevenly produced. From this original foundation, the book challenges us to rethink the concepts of climate change, vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity in transformed ways. With case studies drawn from Pakistan, Indi

  20. Ecological planning of urbanized areas in the south of the Far East (Birobidzhan city as an example)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalmanova, V. B.

    2018-01-01

    Ecological planning of urbanized areas is an urgent demand of the time, because more than 70% of Russia’s population lives in cities. The article describes that the city’s ecological planning is an important part of the area’s organization in its development strategy. The principles and features of the urban area’s ecological organization are proposed. The basis for environmental planning is the ecological and functional zoning of urban areas. The algorithm of ecological-functional zoning is developed to optimize the quality of the urban environment. Based on it, it is possible to identify the planning structure’s features, justify anthropogenic pressure on the natural components of the urban environment, etc. The article briefly presents the possibility of using the main conditions of the ecological framework in the planning of urban areas. Considering the perspective trends of the formation and development of cities in the south of the Far East, the ecological problems caused by regional natural and anthropogenic causes (features of relief, climate, functional-planning structure) are considered. The need for environmental planning of cities in the south of the Far East is shown. The results of the ecological framework’s formation of Birobidzhan city based on its ecological and functional zoning are described. The total area of open unreformed spaces in the city is calculated to be 60.8%, which can serve as the main elements of the ecological framework and perspective reserve areas for ecological planning. The cartographic model of Birobidzhan’s ecological framework is presented, which is the result and model of this type of planning. The practical use of the proposed model will facilitate the adoption of effective management decisions aimed at stabilized development of the city.

  1. Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents

    OpenAIRE

    Renaud, Sabrina; Michaux, Jacques; Schmidt, Daniela N; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre; Mein, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

    2005-01-01

    Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of...

  2. Ecological status and sources of anthropogenic contaminants in mangroves of the Wouri River Estuary (Cameroon)

    KAUST Repository

    Fusi, Marco

    2016-07-07

    Mangroves are critically threatened by human activities, despite the important ecosystem functions and services they provide. Mangroves in Cameroon represent no exception to the worldwide trend of mangrove destruction, especially around Douala, on the Wouri river estuary. In two sites around Douala, we assessed the presence of sterols, PAHs, PCBs, DEHP, DDT and its metabolite p,p\\'-DDE and potentially toxic metals in sediment samples. As a proxy of ecological quality, we measured the diversity and abundance of macrobenthos assemblages. We detected p,p\\'-DDE contamination, with concentrations higher than 3μgkg-1 in 16 out of 26 samples which were attributed to recent widespread use of DDT. The detection of sterols revealed faecal contamination. Significant sensitivity of the macrobenthos to contaminants was revealed, with possible implications on the overall mangrove vulnerability to climate change and on the provision of ecosystem services to local populations. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd.

  3. How landscape scale changes affect ecological processes in conservation areas: external factors influence land use by zebra (Equus burchelli) in the Okavango Delta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlam-Brooks, Hattie L A; Bonyongo, Mpaphi C; Harris, Stephen

    2013-09-01

    Most large-bodied wildlife populations in sub-Saharan Africa only survive in conservation areas, but are continuing to decline because external changes influence ecological processes within reserves, leading to a lack of functionality. However, failure to understand how landscape scale changes influence ecological processes limits our ability to manage protected areas. We used GPS movement data to calculate dry season home ranges for 14 zebra mares in the Okavango Delta and investigated the effects of a range of landscape characteristics (number of habitat patches, mean patch shape, mean index of juxtaposition, and interspersion) on home range size. Resource utilization functions (RUF) were calculated to investigate how specific landscape characteristics affected space use. Space use by all zebra was clustered. In the wetter (Central) parts of the Delta home range size was negatively correlated with the density of habitat patches, more complex patch shapes, low juxtaposition of habitats and an increased availability of floodplain and grassland habitats. In the drier (Peripheral) parts of the Delta, higher use by zebra was also associated with a greater availability of floodplain and grassland habitats, but a lower density of patches and simpler patch shapes. The most important landscape characteristic was not consistent between zebra within the same area of the Delta, suggesting that no single foraging strategy is substantially superior to others, and so animals using different foraging strategies may all thrive. The distribution and complexity of habitat patches are crucial in determining space use by zebra. The extent and duration of seasonal flooding is the principal process affecting habitat patch characteristics in the Okavango Delta, particularly the availability of floodplains, which are the habitat at greatest risk from climate change and anthropogenic disturbance to the Okavango's catchment basin. Understanding how the factors that determine habitat

  4. Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paerl, Hans W.; Hall, Nathan S.; Calandrino, Elizabeth S.

    2011-01-01

    Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N 2 ) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N 2 fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change. - Research Highlights: → Toxic cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten global water supplies. → Human (nutrient) and climate (hydrology, temperature) changes synergistically promote CyanoHABs. → CyanoHAB control

  5. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C.-F.

    2018-01-01

    Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

  6. Epochality, Global Capitalism and Ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne Hope

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available What type of capitalism do we live in today? My answer to this question draws upon two interrelated lines of argument. Firstly, I will argue that we inhabit an epoch of global capitalism. The precursors of this kind of capitalism originated from the late nineteenth century when the development of telegraph networks, modern transport systems and world time zones provided a global template for industrialisation and Western imperialism. From about 1980 a confluence of global events and processes bought a fully-fledged global capitalism into being. These included the collapse of Fordist Keynesianism, national Keynesianism and Soviet Communism along with First, Second and Third World demarcations; the international proliferation of neo-liberal policy regimes; the growth of transnational corporations in all economic sectors; the predominance of financialisation and the reconstitution of global workforces. Secondly, I will argue that the shift from organic surface energy to underground fossil energy intertwined the time of the earth with the time of human history as nature was being instrumentalised as a resource for humanity. Understanding the capitalist relations of power involved here requires that we rethink the emergence of industrial capitalism in the historical context of a world system built upon unequal socio-ecological exchange between core and periphery. Today, global capitalism has intensified the anthropogenic feedback loops associated with CO2 emissions and climate change and universalised the organisational frameworks of profit extraction and socio-ecological destruction. I refer here to the transnational systems of fossil fuel capitalism along with their interlinkages with financialisation and advertising/commodity fetishism. From the preceding lines of argument I will briefly outline the intra-capitalist and planetary-ecological crises out of which transnational coalitions of opposition might emerge.

  7. Natural and anthropogenic influences on depositional architecture of the Ural Delta, Kazakhstan, northern Caspian Sea, during the past 70 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarelli, Frederico M.; Cantelli, Luigi; Barboza, Eduardo G.; Gabbianelli, Giovanni

    2017-05-01

    This paper focuses on the Ural Delta in the northern zone of the Caspian Sea, an area with particular characteristics, where intense influence from anthropogenic and natural factors exists, which acts on the fragile delta system. We built a database to integrate the data from the published sources, bathymetric survey, and recent images in the geographical information system (GIS) environment. The results were linked to the Caspian Sea level (CSL) curve, which had many variations, changing the Ural Delta system's dynamics and in its architecture. In addition, the anthropogenic changes contribute to shaping the actual Ural Delta architecture. Through the link between the results and CSL, we reconstructed an evolution model for the Ural Delta system for the last century and identified three different architectures for the Ural Delta, determined by the energy that acted on the system in the last century and by the anthropogenic changes. This work identifies six different delta phases, which are shaped by CSL changes during the last 70 years and by anthropogenic changes. The delta phases recognized are: i) a Lobate Delta phase, shaped during high CSL before 1935; ii) Natural Elongate Delta 1935-1950 formed during rapid CSL fall; iii) Anthropogenic Elongate Delta 1950-1966, formed during rapid CSL fall and after the Ural-Caspian Sea canal construction, which modified the sedimentary deposition on the delta; iv) Anthropogenic Elongate Delta 1966-1982 shaped during low CSL phase; v) Anthropogenic Elongate Delta 1982-1996 formed during a rapid CSL rise phase; and vi) Anthropogenic Elongate Delta 1996-2009 shaped during high CSL that represent the last phase and actual Ural Delta architecture.

  8. Anthropogenic impacts on mosquito populations in North America over the past century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochlin, Ilia; Faraji, Ary; Ninivaggi, Dominick V.; Barker, Christopher M.; Kilpatrick, A. Marm

    2016-12-01

    The recent emergence and spread of vector-borne viruses including Zika, chikungunya and dengue has raised concerns that climate change may cause mosquito vectors of these diseases to expand into more temperate regions. However, the long-term impact of other anthropogenic factors on mosquito abundance and distributions is less studied. Here, we show that anthropogenic chemical use (DDT; dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and increasing urbanization were the strongest drivers of changes in mosquito populations over the last eight decades in areas on both coasts of North America. Mosquito populations have increased as much as tenfold, and mosquito communities have become two- to fourfold richer over the last five decades. These increases are correlated with the decay in residual environmental DDT concentrations and growing human populations, but not with temperature. These results illustrate the far-reaching impacts of multiple anthropogenic disturbances on animal communities and suggest that interactions between land use and chemical use may have unforeseen consequences on ecosystems.

  9. SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF PERSPECTIVE TRENDS IN ECOLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL STUDIES OF THE CASPIAN SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Abdurakhmanov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available RETRACTED ARTICLEAim. The main purpose of the ecological and biological research (EBR of the Caspian Sea is the information and technical support of decision-making to ensure the environmental management in the region taking into account the increase of anthropogenic impact and change in climatic conditions.Methods. As a basis, we have adopted the method of theoretical and mathematical generalization of a number of scientific papers and systematic analysis of the proposed solutions.Results. Analysis and mathematical processing of published literature sources has convincingly demonstrated the need for international cooperation to optimize the ecological and biological research. It has also confirmed the usefulness of the ecological and biological studies of the Caspian Sea in different directions, and the distribution of effort (cost between them requires coordinated management.Conclusion. It is shown that the data obtained by EBI have both rapid and long-term value. In the future, it is rational to develop suitable approaches to unified structuring of the EBR data, including their spatial and timing. An important task is to create a single interstate information space on the results of EBR using information and communication technologies.

  10. LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL PLANNING OF THE COASTAL ZONE OF SOUTH-WEST CRIMEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Danekina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the application of methods of landscape planning in order to maintain the sustainable state of the coastal south-western part of the Crimean peninsula. There are many protected landscapes in this territory, including reserves and other specially protected landscapes. However, the network of such specially protected natural resources can not fully satisfy the resources they consume and simultaneously maintain a favorable ecological situation in the region. The results of studies of the prospects and prerequisites for the formation and preservation of the landscape-ecological framework of the South-Western Crimea have been presented. Various groups of factors that negatively affect the ecological state of the region are analyzed, among them construction in coastal protective bands, recreational digression of soils and vegetation, pollution with industrial wastewater, illegal sand sampling, etc. Assessment of nature use structures has shown that the existing system needs landscape-ecological justification and planning. The structure of the landscape-ecological framework of the South-Western Crimea has been developed. Its elements have been identified, which contain natural “cores” subject to special protection, ecological corridors and buffer zones. In the course of the study, a mapping of the landscapeecological planning organization of the coastal territory of the Crimean coast has been carried out. The map-scheme shows the elements of the landscape-ecological framework, landscape zones and belts and types of anthropogenic landscapes. In the conditions of limited economic development of the territory, the landscape-ecological framework must include transformed anthropogenic landscapes. Landscape planning should be carried out taking into account regional features of the Black Sea coast, for this purpose the article gives a brief description of the landscape diversity and stability of landscape geosystems. The most

  11. Decline of Yangtze River water and sediment discharge: Impact from natural and anthropogenic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, S. L.; Xu, K. H.; Milliman, J. D.; Yang, H. F.; Wu, C. S.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing impact of both climatic change and human activities on global river systems necessitates an increasing need to identify and quantify the various drivers and their impacts on fluvial water and sediment discharge. Here we show that mean Yangtze River water discharge of the first decade after the closing of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) (2003–2012) was 67 km3/yr (7%) lower than that of the previous 50 years (1950–2002), and 126 km3/yr less compared to the relatively wet period of pre-TGD decade (1993–2002). Most (60–70%) of the decline can be attributed to decreased precipitation, the remainder resulting from construction of reservoirs, improved water-soil conservation and increased water consumption. Mean sediment flux decreased by 71% between 1950–1968 and the post-TGD decade, about half of which occurred prior to the pre-TGD decade. Approximately 30% of the total decline and 65% of the decline since 2003 can be attributed to the TGD, 5% and 14% of these declines to precipitation change, and the remaining to other dams and soil conservation within the drainage basin. These findings highlight the degree to which changes in riverine water and sediment discharge can be related with multiple environmental and anthropogenic factors. PMID:26206169

  12. Quantifying anthropogenic contributions to century-scale groundwater salinity changes, San Joaquin Valley, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Jeffrey; Jurgens, Bryant; Fram, Miranda S.

    2018-01-01

    Total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations in groundwater tapped for beneficial uses (drinking water, irrigation, freshwater industrial) have increased on average by about 100 mg/L over the last 100 years in the San Joaquin Valley, California (SJV). During this period land use in the SJV changed from natural vegetation and dryland agriculture to dominantly irrigated agriculture with growing urban areas. Century-scale salinity trends were evaluated by comparing TDS concentrations and major ion compositions of groundwater from wells sampled in 1910 (Historic) to data from wells sampled in 1993-2015 (Modern). TDS concentrations in subregions of the SJV, the southern (SSJV), western (WSJV), northeastern (NESJV), and southeastern (SESJV) were calculated using a cell-declustering method. TDS concentrations increased in all regions, with the greatest increases found in the SSJV and SESJV. Evaluation of the Modern data from the NESJV and SESJV found higher TDS concentrations in recently recharged (post-1950) groundwater from shallow (soil amendments combined. Bicarbonate showed the greatest increase among major ions, resulting from enhanced silicate weathering due to recharge of irrigation water enriched in CO2 during the growing season. The results of this study demonstrate that large anthropogenic changes to the hydrologic regime, like massive development of irrigated agriculture in semi-arid areas like the SJV, can cause large changes in groundwater quality on a regional scale.

  13. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Scott M; Suski, Jamie G; Salice, Christopher J

    2010-12-01

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The human dimensions of climate change: A micro-level assessment of views from the ecological modernization, political economy and human ecology perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adua, Lazarus; York, Richard; Schuelke-Leech, Beth-Anne

    2016-03-01

    Understanding the manifold human and physical dimensions of climate change has become an area of great interest to researchers in recent decades. Using a U.S. nationally-representative data set and drawing on the ecological modernization, political economy, and human ecology perspectives, this study examines the impacts of energy efficiency technologies, affluence, household demographics, and biophysical characteristics on residential CO2 emissions. Overall, the study provides mixed support for the ecological modernization perspective. While several findings are consistent with the theory's expectation that modern societies can harness technology to mitigate human impacts on the environment, others directly contradict it. Also, the theory's prediction of an inverted U-shaped relationship between affluence and environmental impacts is contradicted. The evidence is somewhat more supportive of the political economy and human ecology perspectives, with affluence, some indicators of technology, household demographics, and biophysical characteristics emerging as important drivers of residential CO2 emissions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The Futures Wheel: A method for exploring the implications of social-ecological change

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.N. Bengston

    2015-01-01

    Change in social-ecological systems often produces a cascade of unanticipated consequences. Natural resource professionals and other stakeholders need to understand the possible implications of cascading change to prepare for it. The Futures Wheel is a "smart group" method that uses a structured brainstorming process to uncover and evaluate multiple levels of...

  16. Ascribing value to ecological processes: an economic view of environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rex H. Schaberg; Thomas P. Holmes; Karen J. Lee; Robert C. Abt

    1999-01-01

    Decisions made by individual landowners and public land managers can have a significant impact on the rates of ecological change. Interdisciplinary cooperation is desirable if economists and ecologists are to correctly interpret the impacts of individual choices for landscape management. This paper reports results from two studies of the residents of North Carolina...

  17. The population ecology of contemporary adaptations: what empirical studies reveal about the conditions that promote adaptive evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reznick, D N; Ghalambor, C K

    2001-01-01

    Under what conditions might organisms be capable of rapid adaptive evolution? We reviewed published studies documenting contemporary adaptations in natural populations and looked for general patterns in the population ecological causes. We found that studies of contemporary adaptation fall into two general settings: (1) colonization of new environments that established newly adapted populations, and (2) local adaptations within the context of a heterogeneous environments and metapopulation structure. Local ecological processes associated with colonizations and introductions included exposure to: (1) a novel host or food resource; (2) a new biophysical environment; (3) a new predator community; and (4) a new coexisting competitor. The new environments that were colonized often had depauperate communities, sometimes because of anthropogenic disturbance. Local adaptation in heterogeneous environments was also often associated with recent anthropogenic changes, such as insecticide and herbicide resistance, or industrial melanism. A common feature of many examples is the combination of directional selection with at least a short-term opportunity for population growth. We suggest that such opportunities for population growth may be a key factor that promotes rapid evolution, since directional selection might otherwise be expected to cause population decline and create the potential for local extinction, which is an ever-present alternative to local adaptation. We also address the large discrepancy between the rate of evolution observed in contemporary studies and the apparent rate of evolution seen in the fossil record.

  18. Sediment Metal Contamination in the Kafue River of Zambia and Ecological Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    M'kandawire, Ethel; Choongo, Kennedy; Yabe, John; Mwase, Maxwell; Saasa, Ngonda; Nakayama, Shouta M M; Bortey-Sam, Nesta; Blindauer, Claudia A

    2017-07-01

    Zambia's Kafue River receives wastes from various sources, resulting in metal pollution. This study determined the degree of contamination of 13 metals (Al, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Cd, Hg and Pb) in Kafue River sediment and the associated ecological risks at six sites in three different seasons. The level of contamination for most metals showed significant site and seasonal differences. The contamination factor and pollution load index indicated that concentrations of most metals particularly copper (Cu), cobalt (Co), manganese (Mn) and arsenic (As) were very high at sites within the Copperbelt mining area. The geoaccumulation index showed an absence of anthropogenic enrichment with Cd and Hg at all the study sites and extreme anthropogenic enrichment with Cu at sites in the Copperbelt mining area. Potential ecological risk showed that Cu and As were likely to cause adverse biological effects to aquatic organisms in the Copperbelt mining region of the Kafue River.

  19. Relations between groundwater levels and anthropogenic and meteorological stressors at selected sites in east-central Florida, 1995-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Louis C.

    2010-01-01

    Multivariate linear regression analyses were used to define the relations of water levels in the Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) and surficial aquifer system (SAS) to anthropogenic and meteorological stressors between 1995 and 2007 at two monitoring well sites (Charlotte Street and Lake Oliver) in east-central Florida. Anthropogenic stressors of interest included municipal and agricultural groundwater withdrawals, and application of reclaimed-water to rapid-infiltration basins (source of aquifer recharge). Meteorological stressors included precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Overall, anthropogenic and meteorological stressors accounted for about 40 to 89 percent of the variance in UFA and SAS groundwater levels and water-level changes. While mean monthly water levels were better correlated with monthly stressor values, changes in UFA and SAS water levels were better correlated with changes in stressor values. Water levels and water-level changes were influenced by system persistence as the moving-averaged values of both stressor types, which accounted for the influence of the previous month(s) conditions, consistently yielded higher adjusted coefficients of determination (R2 adj) values than did single monthly values. While monthly water-level changes tend to be influenced equally with both stressors across the hydrologically averaged 13-year period, changes were more influenced by one stressor or the other seasonally and during extended wet and dry periods. Seasonally, UFA water-level changes tended to be more influenced by anthropogenic stressors than by meteorological stressors, while changes in SAS water levels tended to be more influenced by meteorological stressors. During extended dry periods (12 months or greater), changes in UFA water levels at Charlotte Street were more affected by anthropogenic stressors than by meteorological stressors, while changes in SAS levels were more affected by meteorological stressors. At Lake Oliver, changes in both

  20. Additive negative effects of anthropogenic sedimentation and warming on the survival of coral recruits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fourney, Francesca; Figueiredo, Joana

    2017-09-28

    Corals worldwide are facing population declines due to global climate change and local anthropogenic impacts. Global climate change effects are hard to tackle but recent studies show that some coral species can better handle climate change stress when provided with additional energy resources. The local stressor that most undermines energy acquisition is sedimentation because it impedes coral heterotrophic feeding and their ability to photosynthesize. To investigate if reducing local sedimentation will enable corals to better endure ocean warming, we quantitatively assessed the combined effects of increased temperature and sedimentation (concentration and turbidity) on the survival of coral recruits of the species, Porites astreoides. We used sediment from a reef and a boat basin to mimic natural sediment (coarse) and anthropogenic (fine) sediment (common in dredging), respectively. Natural sediment did not negatively impact coral survival, but anthropogenic sediment did. We found that the capacity of coral recruits to survive under warmer temperatures is less compromised when anthropogenic sedimentation is maintained at the lowest level (30 mg.cm -2 ). Our study suggests that a reduction of US-EPA allowable turbidity from 29 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU) above background to less than 7 NTU near coral reefs would facilitate coral recruit survival under current and higher temperatures.

  1. Development of ecological indicators of climate change based on lichen functional diversity

    OpenAIRE

    Matos, Paula Sofia Antunes

    2016-01-01

    Growing evidence shows us that climate has changed in the recent decades, and the scenario for the future will most likely worsen. A set of climate variables is being developed to monitor climate change, but this is not enough to keep track its effects on ecosystems. It’s imperative to understand and quantify how ecosystems functioning are affected by and respond to these changes, and ecological indicators based on biodiversity metrics are one of the tools to do this. The...

  2. ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND IN THE REPUBLIC OF KALMYKIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Borlikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim The aim is to analyze the ecological, economic and social issues of land use and to define organizational and economic measures to improve its effectiveness. Methods. We used scientific methods: comparison, generalization, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, system methods etc., as well as specific scientific methods: economic and mathematical, statistical, expert assessments, and others. On the basis of these methods we have carried out ecological and geographical, ecological and economic analysis in historical perspective, evaluating the degree of the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on the degradation of agricultural land and efficiency of land use in general. Thus it revealed that the main problems of land-use issues in Kalmykia and possible ways to resolve the problem. Results. Regional studies of ecological and economic problems of land use, the study of the historical experience of grazing industry, the assessment of the current state of arid areas have allowed developing mechanisms for land management and environmental protection, preventing negative social and economic consequences. Conclusions. The present state of agricultural land in the Republic of Kalmykia has led to a significant change in the direction of deterioration of fragile arid ecosystems, which explains the decrease in the total ecological and socio-economic effects, manifested in the reduction of all benefits received by the population. Solving the problems identified above requires an effective economic mechanism of rational land use and environmental protection in the arid zone, which includes science-based land-use regulations, an effective system of land management, a set of measures to prevent further degradation of natural ecosystems. 

  3. Community variability and ecological functioning: 40 years of change in the North Sea benthos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, D S; Robinson, L A; Frid, C L J

    2015-06-01

    Using established associations between species traits (life history, morphological and behavioural characteristics) and key ecological functions, we applied biological traits analysis (BTA) to investigate the consequences of 40 years of change in two North Sea benthic communities. Ecological functioning (trait composition) was found to be statistically indistinguishable across periods that differed significantly in taxonomic composition. A temporary alteration to functioning was, however, inferred at both sampling stations; coinciding with the North Sea regime shift of the 1980s. Trait composition recovered after 1 year at the station located inside the grounds of a trawl fishery, whereas the station located outside the main area of fishing activity underwent a six-year period of significantly altered, and temporally unstable, trait composition. A further alteration to functioning was inferred at the fished station, when the population of a newly established species rapidly increased in numbers. The results suggest that density compensation by characteristically similar (redundant) taxa acts to buffer changes to ecological functioning over time, but that functional stability is subject to aperiodic disruption due to substitutions of dissimilar taxa or uncompensated population fluctuations. The rate at which ecological functioning stabilises and recovers appears to be dependent on environmental context; e.g. disturbance regime. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Effects of anthropogenic aerosol particles on the radiation balance of the atmosphere. Einfluss anthropogener Aerosolteilchen auf den Strahlungshaushalt der Atmosphaere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newiger, M

    1985-01-01

    The influence of aerosol particles is assessed on the basis of the changes in the climate parameters ''albedo'' and ''neutron flux''. Apart from the directly emitted particles, particles formed in the atmosphere as a result of SO/sub 2/ emissions are investigated. The model of aerosol effects on the radiation field takes account of the feedback with the microphysical parameters of the clouds. In the investigation, given particle concentrations were recalculated for three size classes using a two-dimensional transport model. The particle size distribution is described by a modified power function. Extreme-value estimates are made because the absorption capacity of anthropogenic particles is little known. A comparison of the climatic effects of anthropogenic activities shows that aerosol particles and SO/sub 2/ emissions have opposite effects on the radiation balance. (orig./PW).

  5. Ecological status and sources of anthropogenic contaminants in mangroves of the Wouri River Estuary (Cameroon).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusi, Marco; Beone, Gian Maria; Suciu, Nicoleta Alina; Sacchi, Angela; Trevisan, Marco; Capri, Ettore; Daffonchio, Daniele; Din, Ndongo; Dahdouh-Guebas, Farid; Cannicci, Stefano

    2016-08-30

    Mangroves are critically threatened by human activities, despite the important ecosystem functions and services they provide. Mangroves in Cameroon represent no exception to the worldwide trend of mangrove destruction, especially around Douala, on the Wouri river estuary. In two sites around Douala, we assessed the presence of sterols, PAHs, PCBs, DEHP, DDT and its metabolite p,p'-DDE and potentially toxic metals in sediment samples. As a proxy of ecological quality, we measured the diversity and abundance of macrobenthos assemblages. We detected p,p'-DDE contamination, with concentrations higher than 3μgkg(-1) in 16 out of 26 samples which were attributed to recent widespread use of DDT. The detection of sterols revealed faecal contamination. Significant sensitivity of the macrobenthos to contaminants was revealed, with possible implications on the overall mangrove vulnerability to climate change and on the provision of ecosystem services to local populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Southern Ocean phytoplankton physiology in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrou, Katherina; Kranz, Sven A; Trimborn, Scarlett; Hassler, Christel S; Ameijeiras, Sonia Blanco; Sackett, Olivia; Ralph, Peter J; Davidson, Andrew T

    2016-09-20

    The Southern Ocean (SO) is a major sink for anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), potentially harbouring even greater potential for additional sequestration of CO 2 through enhanced phytoplankton productivity. In the SO, primary productivity is primarily driven by bottom up processes (physical and chemical conditions) which are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. Due to a paucity of trace metals (such as iron) and high variability in light, much of the SO is characterised by an ecological paradox of high macronutrient concentrations yet uncharacteristically low chlorophyll concentrations. It is expected that with increased anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and the coincident warming, the major physical and chemical process that govern the SO will alter, influencing the biological capacity and functioning of the ecosystem. This review focuses on the SO primary producers and the bottom up processes that underpin their health and productivity. It looks at the major physico-chemical drivers of change in the SO, and based on current physiological knowledge, explores how these changes will likely manifest in phytoplankton, specifically, what are the physiological changes and floristic shifts that are likely to ensue and how this may translate into changes in the carbon sink capacity, net primary productivity and functionality of the SO. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  7. Woodland restoration in Scotland: ecology, history, culture, economics, politics and change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, Richard

    2009-07-01

    In the latter half of the 20th century, native pine woodlands in Scotland were restricted to small remnant areas within which there was little regeneration. These woodlands are important from a conservation perspective and are habitat for numerous species of conservation concern. Recent developments have seen a large increase in interest in woodland restoration and a dramatic increase in regeneration and woodland spread. The proximate factor enabling this regeneration is a reduction in grazing pressure from sheep and, particularly, deer. However, this has only been possible as a result of a complex interplay between ecological, political and socio-economic factors. We are currently seeing the decline of land management practices instituted 150-200 years ago, changes in land ownership patterns, cultural revival, and changes in societal perceptions of the Scottish landscape. These all feed into the current move to return large areas of the Scottish Highlands to tree cover. I emphasize the need to consider restoration in a multidisciplinary framework which accounts not just for the ecology involved but also the historical and cultural context.

  8. Evaluation of anthropogenic influence in probabilistic forecasting of coastal change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, C. J.; Wilson, K.; Adams, P. N.

    2014-12-01

    Prediction of large scale coastal behavior is especially challenging in areas of pervasive human activity. Many coastal zones on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts are moderately to highly modified through the use of soft sediment and hard stabilization techniques. These practices have the potential to alter sediment transport and availability, as well as reshape the beach profile, ultimately transforming the natural evolution of the coastal system. We present the results of a series of probabilistic models, designed to predict the observed geomorphic response to high wave events at Fire Island, New York. The island comprises a variety of land use types, including inhabited communities with modified beaches, where beach nourishment and artificial dune construction (scraping) occur, unmodified zones, and protected national seashore. This variation in land use presents an opportunity for comparison of model accuracy across highly modified and rarely modified stretches of coastline. Eight models with basic and expanded structures were developed, resulting in sixteen models, informed with observational data from Fire Island. The basic model type does not include anthropogenic modification. The expanded model includes records of nourishment and scraping, designed to quantify the improved accuracy when anthropogenic activity is represented. Modification was included as frequency of occurrence divided by the time since the most recent event, to distinguish between recent and historic events. All but one model reported improved predictive accuracy from the basic to expanded form. The addition of nourishment and scraping parameters resulted in a maximum reduction in predictive error of 36%. The seven improved models reported an average 23% reduction in error. These results indicate that it is advantageous to incorporate the human forcing into a coastal hazards probability model framework.

  9. Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Wang, Peng; Huang, Hongsheng

    2013-01-01

    Land use/land cover change has been attracting increasing attention in the field of global environmental change research because of its role in the social and ecological environment. To explore the ecological risk characteristics of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China, an eco-risk index was established in this study by the combination of a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragmentation index. Spatial distribution and gradient difference of land use eco-risk are analyzed by using the methods of spatial autocorrelation and semivariance. Results show that ecological risk in the study area has a positive correlation, and there is a decreasing trend with the increase of grain size both in 1995 and 2005. Because the area of high eco-risk value increased from 1995 to 2005, eco-environment quality declined slightly in the study area. There are distinct spatial changes in the concentrated areas with high land use eco-risk values from 1995 to 2005. The step length of spatial separation of land use eco-risk is comparatively long—58 km in 1995 and 11 km in 2005—respectively. There are still nonstructural factors affecting the quality of the regional ecological environment at some small-scales. Our research results can provide some useful information for land eco-management, eco-environmental harnessing and restoration. In the future, some measures should be put forward in the regions with high eco-risk value, which include strengthening land use management, avoiding unreasonable types of land use and reducing the degree of fragmentation and separation. PMID:23343986

  10. Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

    2018-01-01

    Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

  11. Evolution in plant populations as a driver of ecological changes in arthropod communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Marc T J; Vellend, Mark; Stinchcombe, John R

    2009-06-12

    Heritable variation in traits can have wide-ranging impacts on species interactions, but the effects that ongoing evolution has on the temporal ecological dynamics of communities are not well understood. Here, we identify three conditions that, if experimentally satisfied, support the hypothesis that evolution by natural selection can drive ecological changes in communities. These conditions are: (i) a focal population exhibits genetic variation in a trait(s), (ii) there is measurable directional selection on the trait(s), and (iii) the trait(s) under selection affects variation in a community variable(s). When these conditions are met, we expect evolution by natural selection to cause ecological changes in the community. We tested these conditions in a field experiment examining the interactions between a native plant (Oenothera biennis) and its associated arthropod community (more than 90 spp.). Oenothera biennis exhibited genetic variation in several plant traits and there was directional selection on plant biomass, life-history strategy (annual versus biennial reproduction) and herbivore resistance. Genetically based variation in biomass and life-history strategy consistently affected the abundance of common arthropod species, total arthropod abundance and arthropod species richness. Using two modelling approaches, we show that evolution by natural selection in large O. biennis populations is predicted to cause changes in the abundance of individual arthropod species, increases in the total abundance of arthropods and a decline in the number of arthropod species. In small O. biennis populations, genetic drift is predicted to swamp out the effects of selection, making the evolution of plant populations unpredictable. In short, evolution by natural selection can play an important role in affecting the dynamics of communities, but these effects depend on several ecological factors. The framework presented here is general and can be applied to other systems to

  12. Evolution in plant populations as a driver of ecological changes in arthropod communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Marc T.J.; Vellend, Mark; Stinchcombe, John R.

    2009-01-01

    Heritable variation in traits can have wide-ranging impacts on species interactions, but the effects that ongoing evolution has on the temporal ecological dynamics of communities are not well understood. Here, we identify three conditions that, if experimentally satisfied, support the hypothesis that evolution by natural selection can drive ecological changes in communities. These conditions are: (i) a focal population exhibits genetic variation in a trait(s), (ii) there is measurable directional selection on the trait(s), and (iii) the trait(s) under selection affects variation in a community variable(s). When these conditions are met, we expect evolution by natural selection to cause ecological changes in the community. We tested these conditions in a field experiment examining the interactions between a native plant (Oenothera biennis) and its associated arthropod community (more than 90 spp.). Oenothera biennis exhibited genetic variation in several plant traits and there was directional selection on plant biomass, life-history strategy (annual versus biennial reproduction) and herbivore resistance. Genetically based variation in biomass and life-history strategy consistently affected the abundance of common arthropod species, total arthropod abundance and arthropod species richness. Using two modelling approaches, we show that evolution by natural selection in large O. biennis populations is predicted to cause changes in the abundance of individual arthropod species, increases in the total abundance of arthropods and a decline in the number of arthropod species. In small O. biennis populations, genetic drift is predicted to swamp out the effects of selection, making the evolution of plant populations unpredictable. In short, evolution by natural selection can play an important role in affecting the dynamics of communities, but these effects depend on several ecological factors. The framework presented here is general and can be applied to other systems to

  13. Changing climate increases discharge and attenuates its seasonal distribution in the northeastern United States

    OpenAIRE

    Rouzbeh Berton; Charles T. Driscoll; David G. Chandler

    2016-01-01

    Study region: The Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest is well-established as a Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site for climate change and anthropogenic impacts studies on hydrological processes. It is located at the headwater regions of the Merrimack Watershed, the fourth largest basin in New England, USA. The watershed is mostly forested (67%) with some developed regions (16%). Study focus: We assessed the scale-dependency of streamflow response to climate variation, river regulation,...

  14. Thermodynamics, ecology and evolutionary biology: A bridge over troubled water or common ground?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skene, Keith R.

    2017-11-01

    This paper addresses a key issue confronting ecological and evolutionary biology, namely the challenge of a cohesive approach to these fields given significant differences in the concepts and foundations of their study. Yet these two areas of scientific research are paramount in terms addressing the spatial and temporal dynamics and distribution of diversity, an understanding of which is needed if we are to resolve the current crisis facing the biosphere. The importance of understanding how nature responds to change is now of essential rather than of metaphysical interest as our planet struggles with increasing anthropogenic damage. Ecology and evolutionary biology can no longer remain disjointed. While some progress has been made in terms of synthetic thinking across these areas, this has often been in terms of bridge building, where thinking in one aspect is extended over to the other side. We review these bridges and the success or otherwise of such efforts. This paper then suggests that in order to move from a descriptive to a mechanistic understanding of the biosphere, we may need to re-evaluate our approach to the studies of ecology and evolutionary biology, finding a common denominator that will enable us to address the critical issues facing us, particularly in terms of understanding what drives change, what determines tempo and how communities function. Common ground, we argue, is essential if we are to comprehend how resilience operates in the natural world and how diversification can counter increasing extinction rates. This paper suggests that thermodynamics may provide a bridge between ecology and evolutionary biology, and that this will enable us to move forward with otherwise intractable problems.

  15. Detecting anthropogenic footprints in regional and global sea level rise since 1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, S.; Marcos, M.; Piecuch, C. G.; Jensen, J.

    2015-12-01

    While there is scientific consensus that global and local mean sea level (GMSL and LMSL) is rising since the late 19th century, it remains unclear how much of this rise is due to natural variability or anthropogenic forcing. Distinguishing both contributions requires an extensive knowledge about the persistence of natural high and low stands in GMSL and LMSL. This is challenging, since observational time series represent the superposition of various processes with different spectral properties. Here we provide a probabilistic upper range of long-term persistent natural GMSL/LMSL variability (P=0.99), which in turn determines the minimum/maximum anthropogenic contribution since 1900. To account for different spectral characteristics of various contributing processes, we separate LMSL (corrected for vertical land motion) into a slowly varying volumetric (mass and density changes) and a more rapidly changing atmospheric component. Based on a combination of spectral analyses of tide gauge records, barotropic and baroclinic ocean models and numerical Monte-Carlo experiments, we find that in records where transient atmospheric processes dominate the spectra, the persistence of natural volumetric changes tends to be underestimated. If each component is assessed separately, natural centennial trends are locally up to ~1.0 mm/yr larger than in case of an integrated assessment, therefore erroneously enhancing the significance of anthropogenic footprints. The GMSL, however, remains unaffected by such biases. On the basis of a model assessment of the separate components, we conclude that it is virtually certain (P=0.99) that at least 45% of the observed increase in GMSL is of anthropogenic origin.

  16. Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, K. [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, PA (United States); Hall, M. [Brookings Institution, Washington, DC (United States); Kim, Seung-Rae [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Bradford, D.F. [Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Oppenheimer, M. [Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Robertson Hall 448, Princeton, NJ, 08544 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the avoidance of 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system'. Among the many plausible choices, dangerous interference with the climate system may be interpreted as anthropogenic radiative forcing causing distinct and widespread climate change impacts such as a widespread demise of coral reefs or a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The geological record and numerical models suggest that limiting global warming below critical temperature thresholds significantly reduces the likelihood of these eventualities. Here we analyze economically optimal policies that may ensure this risk-reduction. Reducing the risk of a widespread coral reef demise implies drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within decades. Virtually unchecked greenhouse gas emissions to date (combined with the inertia of the coupled natural and human systems) may have already committed future societies to a widespread demise of coral reefs. Policies to reduce the risk of a West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration allow for a smoother decarbonization of the economy within a century and may well increase consumption in the long run.

  17. Evaluation of the anthropogenic radionuclide concentrations in sediments and fauna collected in the Beaufort Sea and northern Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efurd, D.W.; Miller, G.G.; Rokop, D.J.

    1997-07-01

    This study was performed to establish a quality controlled data set about the levels of radio nuclide activity in the environment and in selected biota in the U.S. Arctic. Sediment and biota samples were collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Biological Service, and the North Slope Borough's Department of Wildlife Management to determine the impact of anthropogenic radionuclides in the Arctic. The results summarized in this report are derived from samples collected in northwest Alaska with emphasis on species harvested for subsistence in Barrow, Alaska. Samples were analyzed for the anthropogenic radionuclides 90 Sr, 137 Cs, 238 Pu, 239 Pu, 240 Pu and 241 Am. The naturally occurring radionuclides 40 K, 212 Pb and 214 Pb were also measured. One goal of this study was to determine the amounts of anthropogenic radionuclides present in the Beaufort Sea. Sediment samples were isotopically fingerprinted to determine the sources of radio nuclide activities. Biota samples of subsistence and ecological value were analyzed to search for evidence of bio-accumulation of radionuclides and to determine the radiation exposures associated with subsistence living in northern Alaska. The anthropogenic radio nuclide content of sediments collected in the Beaufort Sea was predominantly the result of the deposition of global fallout. No other sources of anthropogenic radionuclides could be conclusively identified in the sediments. The anthropogenic radio nuclide concentrations in fish, birds and mammals were very low. Assuming that ingestion of food is an important pathway leading to human contact with radioactive contaminants and given the dietary patterns in coastal Arctic communities, it can be surmised that marine food chains are presently not significantly affected

  18. Driving forces for changes in geographical distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Medlock Jolyon M

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Many factors are involved in determining the latitudinal and altitudinal spread of the important tick vector Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae in Europe, as well as in changes in the distribution within its prior endemic zones. This paper builds on published literature and unpublished expert opinion from the VBORNET network with the aim of reviewing the evidence for these changes in Europe and discusses the many climatic, ecological, landscape and anthropogenic drivers. These can be divided into those directly related to climatic change, contributing to an expansion in the tick’s geographic range at extremes of altitude in central Europe, and at extremes of latitude in Scandinavia; those related to changes in the distribution of tick hosts, particularly roe deer and other cervids; other ecological changes such as habitat connectivity and changes in land management; and finally, anthropogenically induced changes. These factors are strongly interlinked and often not well quantified. Although a change in climate plays an important role in certain geographic regions, for much of Europe it is non-climatic factors that are becoming increasingly important. How we manage habitats on a landscape scale, and the changes in the distribution and abundance of tick hosts are important considerations during our assessment and management of the public health risks associated with ticks and tick-borne disease issues in 21st century Europe. Better understanding and mapping of the spread of I. ricinus (and changes in its abundance is, however, essential to assess the risk of the spread of infections transmitted by this vector species. Enhanced tick surveillance with harmonized approaches for comparison of data enabling the follow-up of trends at EU level will improve the messages on risk related to tick-borne diseases to policy makers, other stake holders and to the general public.

  19. Studying the complexity of change: toward an analytical framework for understanding deliberate social-ecological transformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele-Lee Moore

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Faced with numerous seemingly intractable social and environmental challenges, many scholars and practitioners are increasingly interested in understanding how to actively engage and transform the existing systems holding such problems in place. Although a variety of analytical models have emerged in recent years, most emphasize either the social or ecological elements of such transformations rather than their coupled nature. To address this, first we have presented a definition of the core elements of a social-ecological system (SES that could potentially be altered in a transformation. Second, we drew on insights about transformation from three branches of literature focused on radical change, i.e., social movements, socio-technical transitions, and social innovation, and gave consideration to the similarities and differences with the current studies by resilience scholars. Drawing on these findings, we have proposed a framework that outlines the process and phases of transformative change in an SES. Future research will be able to utilize the framework as a tool for analyzing the alteration of social-ecological feedbacks, identifying critical barriers and leverage points and assessing the outcome of social-ecological transformations.

  20. Culturally compelling strategies for behaviour change: a social ecology model and case study in malaria prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panter-Brick, Catherine; Clarke, Sian E; Lomas, Heather; Pinder, Margaret; Lindsay, Steve W

    2006-06-01

    Behaviour change is notoriously difficult to initiate and sustain, and the reasons why efforts to promote healthy behaviours fail are coming under increasing scrutiny. To be successful, health interventions should build on existing practices, skills and priorities, recognise the constraints on human behaviour, and either feature community mobilisation or target those most receptive to change. Furthermore, interventions should strive to be culturally compelling, not merely culturally appropriate: they must engage local communities and nestle within social and ecological landscapes. In this paper, we propose a social ecology perspective to make explicit the links between intention to change, actual behaviour change, and subsequent health impact, as relating to both theory-based models and practical strategies for triggering behaviour change. A social ecology model focuses attention on the contexts of behaviour when designing, implementing or critically evaluating interventions. As a case study, we reflect on a community-directed intervention in rural Gambia designed to reduce malaria by promoting a relatively simple and low-cost behaviour: repairing holes in mosquito bednets. In phase 1, contextual information on bednet usage, transactions and repairs (the 'social lives' of nets) was documented. In phase 2 (intervention), songs were composed and posters displayed by community members to encourage repairs, creating a sense of ownership and a compelling medium for the transmission of health messages. In phase 3 (evaluation), qualitative and quantitative data showed that household responses were particularly rapid and extensive, with significant increase in bednet repairs (psocial ecology-of behaviour practices that are the bedrock of health interventions.

  1. Environmental and Anthropogenic Impacts on Avifaunal Assemblages in an Urban Parkland, 1976 to 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Elizabeth Ormond

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Urban environments are unique, rapidly changing habitats in which almost half of the world’s human population resides. The effects of urbanisation, such as habitat (vegetation removal, pollution and modification of natural areas, commonly cause biodiversity loss. Long-term ecological monitoring of urban environments is vital to determine the composition and long-term trends of faunal communities. This paper provides a detailed view of long-term changes in avifaunal assemblages of the Adelaide City parklands and discusses the anthropogenic and environmental factors that contributed to the changes between 1976 and 2007. The Adelaide City parklands (ACP comprise 760 ha of land surrounding Adelaide’s central business district. Naturalist Robert Whatmough completed a 32-year survey of the ACP to determine the structure of the urban bird community residing there. Annual species richness and the abundance of birds in March and September months were analysed. Linear regression analysis was applied to species richness and abundance data of each assemblage. Resident parkland birds demonstrated significant declines in abundance. Native and introduced species also exhibited long-term declines in species richness and abundance throughout the 32-year period. Cycles of varying time periods indicated fluctuations in avian biodiversity demonstrating the need for future monitoring and statistical analyses on bird communities in the Adelaide City parklands.

  2. Identifying socio-ecological networks in rural-urban gradients: Diagnosis of a changing cultural landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaiz-Schmitz, C; Schmitz, M F; Herrero-Jáuregui, C; Gutiérrez-Angonese, J; Pineda, F D; Montes, C

    2018-01-15

    Socio-ecological systems maintain reciprocal interactions between biophysical and socioeconomic structures. As a result of these interactions key essential services for society emerge. Urban expansion is a direct driver of land change and cause serious shifts in socio-ecological relationships and the associated lifestyles. The framework of rural-urban gradients has proved to be a powerful tool for ecological research about urban influences on ecosystems and on sociological issues related to social welfare. However, to date there has not been an attempt to achieve a classification of municipalities in rural-urban gradients based on socio-ecological interactions. In this paper, we developed a methodological approach that allows identifying and classifying a set of socio-ecological network configurations in the Region of Madrid, a highly dynamic cultural landscape considered one of the European hotspots in urban development. According to their socio-ecological links, the integrated model detects four groups of municipalities, ordered along a rural-urban gradient, characterized by their degree of biophysical and socioeconomic coupling and different indicators of landscape structure and social welfare. We propose the developed model as a useful tool to improve environmental management schemes and land planning from a socio-ecological perspective, especially in territories subject to intense urban transformations and loss of rurality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Nicholas P.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.

    2014-01-01

    Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explore how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass-succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 Ha). We identify vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area can be effectively controlled when bare ground cover is 100 cm in length is less than ~35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the development of

  4. Ecological site‐based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Nicholas P; Herrick, Jeffrey E; Duniway, Michael C

    Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation, or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explored how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting, and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass–succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 ha). We identified vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area could be effectively controlled when bare ground cover was 100 cm in length was less than ∼35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the

  5. Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise: the role of complex colored noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Müller, Alfred; Zorita, Eduardo; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    While there is scientific consensus that global mean sea level (MSL) is rising since the late 19th century, it remains unclear how much of this rise is due to natural variability or anthropogenic forcing. Uncovering the anthropogenic contribution requires profound knowledge about the persistence of natural MSL variations. This is challenging, since observational time series represent the superposition of various processes with different spectral properties. Here we statistically estimate the upper bounds of naturally forced centennial MSL trends on the basis of two separate components: a slowly varying volumetric (mass and density changes) and a more rapidly changing atmospheric component. Resting on a combination of spectral analyses of tide gauge records, ocean reanalysis data and numerical Monte-Carlo experiments, we find that in records where transient atmospheric processes dominate, the persistence of natural volumetric changes is underestimated. If each component is assessed separately, natural centennial trends are locally up to ~0.5 mm/yr larger than in case of an integrated assessment. This implies that external trends in MSL rise related to anthropogenic forcing might be generally overestimated. By applying our approach to the outputs of a centennial ocean reanalysis (SODA), we estimate maximum natural trends in the order of 1 mm/yr for the global average. This value is larger than previous estimates, but consistent with recent paleo evidence from periods in which the anthropogenic contribution was absent. Comparing our estimate to the observed 20th century MSL rise of 1.7 mm/yr suggests a minimum external contribution of at least 0.7 mm/yr. We conclude that an accurate detection of anthropogenic footprints in MSL rise requires a more careful assessment of the persistence of intrinsic natural variability.

  6. Population genetic dynamics of three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) in anthropogenic altered habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharsack, Joern P; Schweyen, Hannah; Schmidt, Alexander M; Dittmar, Janine; Reusch, Thorsten Bh; Kurtz, Joachim

    2012-06-01

    In industrialized and/or agriculturally used landscapes, inhabiting species are exposed to a variety of anthropogenic changes in their environments. Genetic diversity may be reduced if populations encounter founder events, bottlenecks, or isolation. Conversely, genetic diversity may increase if populations adapt to changes in selective regimes in newly created habitats. With the present study, genetic variability of 918 sticklebacks from 43 samplings (21.3 ± 3.8 per sample) at 36 locations from cultivated landscapes in Northwest Germany was analyzed at nine neutral microsatellite loci. To test if differentiation is influenced by habitat alterations, sticklebacks were collected from ancient running waters and adjacent artificial stagnant waters, from brooks with salt water inflow of anthropogenic and natural origin and adjacent freshwater sites. Overall population structure was dominated by isolation by distance (IBD), which was significant across all populations, and analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed that 10.6% of the variation was explained by river catchment area. Populations in anthropogenic modified habitats deviated from the general IBD structure and in the AMOVA, grouping by habitat type running/stagnant water explained 4.9% of variation and 1.4% of the variation was explained by salt-/freshwater habitat. Sticklebacks in salt-polluted water systems seem to exhibit elevated migratory activity between fresh- and saltwater habitats, reducing IBD. In other situations, populations showed distinct signs of genetic isolation, which in some locations was attributed to mechanical migration barriers, but in others to potential anthropogenic induced bottleneck or founder effects. The present study shows that anthropogenic habitat alterations may have diverse effects on the population genetic structure of inhabiting species. Depending on the type of habitat change, increased genetic differentiation, diversification, or isolation are possible consequences.

  7. MAPS OF IMPACT ZONES OF REGION OF THE KURSK MAGNETIC ANOMALY FOR THE ECOLOGICAL ATLAS OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. I. Markova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Maps of several impact zones of the Russian Federation are included in the Ecological Atlas of Russia. These zones are characterized by the high degree of the development of the mining industry and respectively by high level of the anthropogenic impact on the environment. One of these regions is the region of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly (КМА, where the extractive industry is most developed in separate areas of Kursk and Belgorod regions. During a long time the iron ore is mined here both open and closed methods. The general map of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly lets to see in complex all iron ore regions and deposits and to reveal most environmentally dangerous of them as well as to evaluate the significance of deposits. Large-scale maps let to consider diverse anthropogenic changes of the environment caused by the extractive industry as well as by related industries. In regions of the intensive development of the mining industry with great areas included in the process of the industrial production and the storage of wastes take place the movement of huge masses of ground, the destruction and the degradation of the vegetation cover, the destruction of the traditional structure of settlements and the disappearance of most settlements. In example of areas of impact zones processes of the disappearance of rural settlements, of the urban sprawl and of displacement of the agriculture by the extractive industry can be seen firsthand. A registration of the development of this process is very important in the planning of the development of territories, all the more so the region of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly has fertile chernozem soils which are not very abundant in the territory of the Russian Federation. Mining complexes are surrounded by a range of related companies serving the production and livelihoods of the population. These companies also have an impact on the environment, sometimes significantly changing it. Serious changes

  8. Retrospective analysis of bottlenose dolphin foraging: a legacy of anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossman, Sam; Barros, Nélio B.; Ostrom, Peggy H.; Stricker, Craig A.; Hohn, Aleta A.; Gandhi, Hasand; Wells, Randall S.

    2013-01-01

    We used stable isotope analysis to investigate the foraging ecology of coastal bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in relation to a series of anthropogenic disturbances. We first demonstrated that stable isotopes are a faithful indicator of habitat use by comparing muscle isotope values to behavioral foraging data from the same individuals. δ13C values increased, while δ34S and δ15N values decreased with the percentage of feeding observations in seagrass habitat. We then utilized stable isotope values of muscle to assess temporal variation in foraging habitat from 1991 to 2010 and collagen from tooth crown tips to assess the time period 1944 to 2007. From 1991 to 2010, δ13C values of muscle decreased while δ34S values increased indicating reduced utilization of seagrass habitat. From 1944 to 1989 δ13C values of the crown tip declined significantly, likely due to a reduction in the coverage of seagrass habitat and δ15N values significantly increased, a trend we attribute to nutrient loading from a rapidly increasing human population. Our results demonstrate the utility of using marine mammal foraging habits to retrospectively assess the extent to which anthropogenic disturbance impacts coastal food webs.

  9. Utilization of farm animal genetic resources in a changing agro-ecological environment in the Nordic countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kantanen, Juha; Løvendahl, Peter; Strandberg, Erling

    2015-01-01

    Livestock production is the most important component of northern European agriculture and contributes to and will be affected by climate change. Nevertheless, the role of farm animal genetic resources in the adaptation to new agro-ecological conditions and mitigation of animal production’s effects...... to a future with altered production systems. Some animals with useful phenotypes and genotypes may be more useful than others in the changing environment. Robust animal breeds with the potential to adapt to new agro-ecological conditions and tolerate new diseases will be needed. The key issue in mitigation...

  10. [Regional ecological construction and mission of landscape ecology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Duning; Xie, Fuju; Wei, Jianbing

    2004-10-01

    The eco-construction on regional and landscape scale is the one which can be used to specific landscape and intercrossing ecosystem in specific region including performing scientific administration of ecosystem and optimizing environmental function. Recently, the government has taken a series of significant projects into action, such as national forest protection item, partly forest restoration, and adjustment of water, etc. Enforcing regional eco-construction and maintaining the ecology security of the nation have become the strategic requisition. In various regions, different eco-construction should be applied, for example, performing ecological safeguard measure in ecological sensitive zone, accommodating the ecological load in ecological fragile zone, etc., which can control the activities of human being, so that, sustainable development can be reached. Facing opportunity and challenge in the development of landscape ecology, we have some key topics: landscape pattern of ecological security, land use and ecological process, landscape changes under human activity stress, quantitative evaluation of the influence on human being activities, evaluation of zonal ecological security and advance warning of ecological risk, and planning and optimizing of model in landscape eco-construction.

  11. Anthropogenic disturbances affect population size and biomass allocation of two alpine species from the headwater area of the Urumqi River, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, R.; Zhang, H.; An, L.

    2018-01-01

    The survival of alpine plants are seriously threatened by increasing anthropogenic activity. Saussurea involucrata and Rhodiola quadrifida are particularly affected because of their high medicinal value. To assess the impact of anthropogenic disturbance on the two species, their population size and biomass allocation were examined at three levels of disturbance at low and high altitudes. Anthropogenic disturbance was the most serious threat to the populations and changed the population density, biomass, and biomass allocation of both species significantly (p<0.05). The changes differed with the species and the altitude, and were also affected by the interaction between these two factors. Population density and biomass of the two species decreased with an increase in the level of anthropogenic disturbance. These results imply that the decrease in population size and in biomass allocation to reproductive organs due to anthropogenic disturbances may make the plant populations even smaller and scarce. Meanwhile, change of making their survival dependent on the extent of anthropogenic disturbance: unless such disturbance is checked and the species are protected, they will probably disappear from the headwater area of the Urumqi River. This influence of anthropogenic disturbances may be potential threats to population ability of survival and reproduction. (author)

  12. Nesting and acoustic ecology, but not phylogeny, influence passerine urban tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Gonçalo C

    2014-03-01

    Urbanization is one of the most extensive and ecologically significant changes happening to terrestrial environments, as it strongly affects the distribution of biodiversity. It is well established that native species richness is reduced in urban and suburban areas, but the species traits that predict tolerance to urbanization are yet little understood. In birds, one of the most studied groups in this respect, evidence is appearing that acoustic traits influence urban living, but it remains unknown how this compares to the effects of more obvious ecological traits that facilitate urban living. Therefore, it remains unclear whether acoustic communication is an important predictor of urban tolerance among species. Here, with a comparative study across 140 European and North American passerines, I show that high song frequency, which is less masked by the low-frequency anthropogenic noise, is associated with urban tolerance, with an effect size over half that of the most important ecological trait studied: off-ground nesting. Other nesting and foraging traits accepted to facilitate urban living did not differ for species occurring in urban environments. Thus, the contribution of acoustic traits for passerine urban tolerance approximates that of more obvious ecological traits. Nonetheless, effect sizes of the biological predictors of urban tolerance were low and the phylogenetic signal for urban tolerance was null, both of which suggest that factors other than phenotypic traits have major effects on urban tolerance. A simple possibility is exposure to urbanization, as there was a higher proportion of urban-tolerant species in Europe, which is more urbanized than North America. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Ecological marketing as instrument of steady development providing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.V. Zamula

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic influence upon environment and its results cause ecological disbalance of a natural system, destroy of biological connection between a human being and nature. That’s why it’s necessary to protect environment from pollution. To realize this task we have to involve some economical sciences as well. Consequently, our researches are directed to the determination of the place of ecological marketing so that an enterprise could reach the principles of the concept of steady development through the harmonization of interests of producers of goods concerning to the receiving of desirable income amount, consumers concerning to satisfaction of their needs and a society as a whole about reaching a steady development. The article determines the tasks of ecological marketing as an instrument for providing the realization of principles of the steady development concept paying special attention to its constituents such as economical, ecological, and social. The author determines the advantages of implementation of the ecological marketing which allows to get definite competitive advantages at the market and create a positive image of its trade mark and its produce among customers. It is proved that the maximum synthesis of interests of economics and ecology is one of the ways of biosphere protection and reaching a steady development of all the countries and a society as a whole.

  14. Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paerl, Hans W., E-mail: hpaerl@email.unc.edu; Hall, Nathan S.; Calandrino, Elizabeth S.

    2011-04-15

    Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N{sub 2}) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N{sub 2} fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change. - Research Highlights: {yields} Toxic cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten global water supplies. {yields} Human (nutrient) and climate (hydrology, temperature) changes synergistically promote CyanoHABs. {yields

  15. Changing tides: ecological and historical perspectives on fish cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, B Wren; Braithwaite, Victoria A

    2015-01-01

    The capacity for specialization and radiation make fish an excellent group in which to investigate the depth and variety of animal cognition. Even though early observations of fish using tools predates the discovery of tool use in chimpanzees, fish cognition has historically been somewhat overlooked. However, a recent surge of interest is now providing a wealth of material on which to draw examples, and this has required a selective approach to choosing the research described below. Our goal is to illustrate the necessity for basing cognitive investigations on the ecological and evolutionary context of the species at hand. We also seek to illustrate the importance of ecology and the environment in honing a range of sensory systems that allow fish to glean information and support informed decision-making. The various environments and challenges with which fish interact require equally varied cognitive skills, and the solutions that fish have developed are truly impressive. Similarly, we illustrate how common ecological problems will frequently produce common cognitive solutions. Below, we focus on four topics: spatial learning and memory, avoiding predators and catching prey, communication, and innovation. These are used to illustrate how both simple and sophisticated cognitive processes underpin much of the adaptive behavioral flexibility exhibited throughout fish phylogeny. Never before has the field had such a wide array of interdisciplinary techniques available to access both cognitive and mechanistic processes underpinning fish behavior. This capacity comes at a critical time to predict and manage fish populations in an era of unprecedented global change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Climate change as an ecosystem architect: implications to rare plant ecology, conservation, and restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constance I. Millar

    2003-01-01

    Recent advances in earth system sciences have revealed significant new information relevant to rare plant ecology and conservation. Analysis of climate change at high resolution with new and precise proxies of paleotemperatures reveals a picture over the past two million years of oscillatory climate change operating simultaneously at multiple timescales. Low-frequency...

  17. Program on ecosystem change and society: An international research strategy for integrated social-ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carpenter, S.R.; Folke, C.; Norström, A.V.; Olsson, O.; Schultz, L.; Agarwal, B.; Balvanera, P.; Campbell, B.; Castilla, J.C.; Cramer, W.; DeFries, R.; Eyzaguirre, P.; Hughes, T.P.; Polasky, S.; Sanusi, Z.A.; Scholes, R.J.; Spierenburg, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    The Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), a new initiative within the ICSU global change programs, aims to integrate research on the stewardship of social-ecological systems, the services they generate, and the relationships among natural capital, human wellbeing, livelihoods, inequality

  18. Program on ecosystem change and society: an international research strategy for integrated social–ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carpenter, S.R; Folke, C.; Nordström, A.; Olsson, O.; Schultz, L.; Agarwal, B.; Balvanera, P.; Campbell, B.; Castilla, J.C.; Cramer, W.; DeFries, R.; Eyzaguirre, P.; Hughes, T.P.; Polasky, S.; Sanusi, Z.; Spierenburg, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    The Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), a new initiative within the ICSU global change programs, aims to integrate research on the stewardship of social-ecological systems, the services they generate, and the relationships among natural capital, human wellbeing, livelihoods, inequality

  19. Using LANDIS II to study the effects of global change in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant; Anatoly Z. Shvidenko; Robert M. Scheller

    2010-01-01

    Landscape dynamics are characterized by complex interactions among multiple disturbance regimes, anthropogenic use and management, and the mosaic of diverse ecological conditions. LANDIS-IT is a landscape forest succession and disturbance model that independently simulates multiple ecological and disturbance processes, accounting for complex interactions to predict...

  20. Climate change and an invasive, tropical milkweed: an ecological trap for monarch butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faldyn, Matthew J; Hunter, Mark D; Elderd, Bret D

    2018-05-01

    While it is well established that climate change affects species distributions and abundances, the impacts of climate change on species interactions has not been extensively studied. This is particularly important for specialists whose interactions are tightly linked, such as between the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) and the plant genus Asclepias, on which it depends. We used open-top chambers (OTCs) to increase temperatures in experimental plots and placed either nonnative Asclepias curassavica or native A. incarnata in each plot along with monarch larvae. We found, under current climatic conditions, adult monarchs had higher survival and mass when feeding on A. curassavica. However, under future conditions, monarchs fared much worse on A. curassavica. The decrease in adult survival and mass was associated with increasing cardenolide concentrations under warmer temperatures. Increased temperatures alone reduced monarch forewing length. Cardenolide concentrations in A. curassavica may have transitioned from beneficial to detrimental as temperature increased. Thus, the increasing cardenolide concentrations may have pushed the larvae over a tipping point into an ecological trap; whereby past environmental cues associated with increased fitness give misleading information. Given the ubiquity of specialist plant-herbivore interactions, the potential for such ecological traps to emerge as temperatures increase may have far-reaching consequences. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  1. Benthic polychaetes in the Ratnagiri bay, India: Influence of anthropogenic factors

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sukumaran, S.; Bhokepode, K.; Telavane, M.; Kubal, P.; Gajbhiye, S.N.

    Study of changes in macrobenthic community structure is an intrinsic part of many environmental monitoring programmes. Hence, it is pivotal to distinguish the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on these sensitive organisms for accurate...

  2. Anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsung-Hung Peng

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this review article is on the anthropogenic CO2 taken up by the ocean. There are several methods of identifying the anthropogenic CO2 signal and quantifying its inventory in the ocean. The ?C* method is most frequently used to estimate the global distribution of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean. Results based on analysis of the dataset obtained from the comprehensive surveys of inorganic carbon distribution in the world oceans in the 1990s are given. These surveys were jointly conducted during the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE and the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS. This data set consists of 9618 hydrographic stations from a total of 95 cruises, which represents the most accurate and comprehensive view of the distribution of inorganic carbon in the global ocean available today. The increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean during the past few decades is also evaluated using direct comparison of results from repeat surveys and using statistical method of Multi-parameter Linear Regression (MLR. The impact of increasing oceanic anthropogenic CO2 on the calcium carbonate system in the ocean is reviewed briefly as well. Extensive studies of CaCO3 dissolution as a result of increasing anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean have revealed several distinct oceanic regions where the CaCO3 undersaturation zone has expanded.

  3. Anthropogenic mercury emissions from 1980 to 2012 in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ying; Deng, Meihua; Li, Tingqiang; Japenga, Jan; Chen, Qianqian; Yang, Xiaoe; He, Zhenli

    2017-07-01

    China was considered the biggest contributor for airborne mercury in the world but the amount of mercury emission in effluents and solid wastes has not been documented. In this study, total national and regional mercury emission to the environment via exhaust gases, effluents and solid wastes were accounted with updated emission factors and the amount of goods produced and/or consumed. The national mercury emission in China increased from 448 to 2151 tons during the 1980-2012 period. Nearly all of the emissions were ended up as exhaust gases and solid wastes. The proportion of exhaust gases decreased with increasing share of solid wastes and effluents. Of all the anthropogenic sources, coal was the most important contributor in quantity, followed by mercury mining, gold smelting, nonferrous smelting, iron steel production, domestic wastes, and cement production, with accounting for more than 90% of the total emission. There was a big variation of regional cumulative mercury emission during 1980-2012 in China, with higher emissions occurred in eastern areas and lower values in the western and far northern regions. The biggest cumulative emission occurred in GZ (Guizhou), reaching 3974 t, while the smallest cumulative emission was lower than 10 t in XZ (Tibet). Correspondingly, mercury accumulation in soil were higher in regions with larger emissions in unit area. Therefore, it is urgent to reduce anthropogenic mercury emission and subsequent impact on ecological functions and human health. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on deriving anthropogenic warming rates from the instrumental temperature record

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Werf, G.R.; Dolman, A.J.

    2014-01-01

    The instrumental surface air temperature record has been used in several statistical studies to assess the relative role of natural and anthropogenic drivers of climate change. The results of those studies varied considerably, with anthropogenic temperature trends over the past 25-30 years suggested

  5. Changes in composition, ecology and structure of high-mountain vegetation: a re-visitation study over 42 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, Alberto; Frate, Ludovico; Carranza, Maria Laura; Attorre, Fabio; Pelino, Giovanni; Stanisci, Angela

    2016-01-27

    High-mountain ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change, causing biodiversity loss, habitat degradation and landscape modifications. However, very few detailed studies have focussed on plant biodiversity in the high mountains of the Mediterranean. In this study, we investigated the long-term changes that have occurred in the composition, structure and ecology of high-mountain vegetation in the central Apennines (Majella) over the last 42 years. We performed a re-visitation study, using historical and newly collected vegetation data to explore which ecological and structural features have been the most successful in coping with climatic changes. Vegetation changes were analysed by comparing geo-referenced phytosociological relevés collected in high-mountain habitats (dolines, gentle slopes and ridges) on the Majella massif in 1972 and in 2014. Composition analysis was performed by detrended correspondence analysis, followed by an analysis of similarities for statistical significance assessment and by similarity percentage procedure (SIMPER) for identifying which species indicate temporal changes. Changes in ecological and structural indicators were analysed by a permutational multivariate analysis of variance, followed by a post hoc comparison. Over the last 42 years, clear floristic changes and significant ecological and structural variations occurred. We observed a significant increase in the thermophilic and mesonitrophilic plant species and an increment in the frequencies of hemicryptophytes. This re-visitation study in the Apennines agrees with observations in other alpine ecosystems, providing new insights for a better understanding of the effects of global change on Mediterranean high-mountain biodiversity. The observed changes in floristic composition, the thermophilization process and the shift towards a more nutrient-demanding vegetation are likely attributable to the combined effect of higher temperatures and the increase in soil nutrients

  6. Variations on seepage water geochemistry induced by natural and anthropogenic microclimatic changes: Implications for the speleothems growth conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Cortes, A.; Sanchez-Moral, S.; Canaveras, J. C.; Cuevas, J.; Cuezva, S.; Andreu, J. M.; Abella, R.

    2009-04-01

    During an annual cycle the effect of microclimatic changes (natural and anthropogenic origin) on the geochemical characteristics of seepage water and mineral precipitation rates was analyzed, for two karstic caves under opposing environmental stability and energy exchange with exterior. On the one hand Castañar cave (Caceres, Spain), an extremely controlled show cave with limited visitation showing a minimum exchange rate of energy with the outer atmosphere and, secondly, Canelobre cave (Alicante, Spain), a widely visited cave where the anthropogenic impact generates both high-speed and high-energy environmental changes. Microclimatic variations play a key role in CO2-dessgasing caused by the imbalance of pCO2 between the karstic water and the cave air, favoring the slow processes of mineral precipitation. Thus, a pCO2-range of seepage water have been detected for each cave (from 10-2.30/-2.35 to 10-2.47/-2.52 bar for Castañar cave, and from 10-2.8/-2.85 to 10-2.95/-3.0 bar for Canelobre cave) where the mineral oversaturation prevails, determining the type and rate of mineral precipitation in each cave. Finally, it analyzes how the changes on the oversaturation/ precipitation states are controlled by microclimatic variations, such as: 1) natural underground air renewal through the porous system of upper soil and the network of host-rock fissures (isolating membranes), or else through the cave entrance, 2) cumulative disruptions in the pCO2 levels of cave air due to the presence of visitors, and 3) forced ventilation of the subterranean atmosphere due to the uncontrolled opening of cave entrances. The obtained results reinforce the significance of the microclimatic fluctuations on short time scales in the dynamic and evolution of the subterranean karst system, in terms of rates of mineral precipitation and growth of speleothems. Likewise the interpretations are useful in order to ensure the constant climate required for the conservation of caves.

  7. Frogs, fish and forestry: An integrated watershed network paradigm conserves biodiversity and ecological services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwell H. Welsh Jr.

    2011-01-01

    Successfully addressing the multitude of stresses influencing forest catchments, their native biota, and the vital ecological services they provide humanity will require adapting an integrated view that incorporates the full range of natural and anthropogenic disturbances acting on these landscapes and their embedded fluvial networks. The concepts of dendritic networks...

  8. Introducing a Method for Social-ecological Assessment of Small Urban Parks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zanariah Jasman

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Small parks in cities are important to support overall urban biodiversity and ecological network. The aim of this paper is to introduce a method of identifying and assessing the ecological characteristics and anthropogenic factors of small urban parks. We developed a framework that combined structured observation and field measurement. The method suggests an integrative assessment that is practical and understandable to the park planners and managers to enhance small parks to support overall urban biodiversity and ecosystem services. High biodiversity can provide opportunities for humans to experience nature and wildlife in cities, thus contributing to the quality of life of urban dwellers.

  9. The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

    2018-05-01

    Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

  10. Phylogenetic responses of forest trees to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senior, John K; Schweitzer, Jennifer A; O'Reilly-Wapstra, Julianne; Chapman, Samantha K; Steane, Dorothy; Langley, Adam; Bailey, Joseph K

    2013-01-01

    In a rapidly changing biosphere, approaches to understanding the ecology and evolution of forest species will be critical to predict and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic global change on forest ecosystems. Utilizing 26 forest species in a factorial experiment with two levels each of atmospheric CO2 and soil nitrogen, we examined the hypothesis that phylogeny would influence plant performance in response to elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. We found highly idiosyncratic responses at the species level. However, significant, among-genetic lineage responses were present across a molecularly determined phylogeny, indicating that past evolutionary history may have an important role in the response of whole genetic lineages to future global change. These data imply that some genetic lineages will perform well and that others will not, depending upon the environmental context.

  11. Anthropogenic Forcing of Carbonate and Organic Carbon Preservation in Marine Sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keil, Richard

    2017-01-03

    Carbon preservation in marine sediments, supplemented by that in large lakes, is the primary mechanism that moves carbon from the active surficial carbon cycle to the slower geologic carbon cycle. Preservation rates are low relative to the rates at which carbon moves between surface pools, which has led to the preservation term largely being ignored when evaluating anthropogenic forcing of the global carbon cycle. However, a variety of anthropogenic drivers-including ocean warming, deoxygenation, and acidification, as well as human-induced changes in sediment delivery to the ocean and mixing and irrigation of continental margin sediments-all work to decrease the already small carbon preservation term. These drivers affect the cycling of both carbonate and organic carbon in the ocean. The overall effect of anthropogenic forcing in the modern ocean is to decrease delivery of carbon to sediments, increase sedimentary dissolution and remineralization, and subsequently decrease overall carbon preservation.

  12. Predictive systems ecology

    OpenAIRE

    Evans, Matthew R.; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J.; Dall, Sasha R. X.; D?az, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J.; Lewis, Simon L.; Mace, Georgina M.; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of ...

  13. Molecular and Microbial Mechanisms Increasing Soil C Storage Under Future Rates of Anthropogenic N Deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zak, Donald R. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2017-11-17

    A growing body of evidence reveals that anthropogenic N deposition can reduce the microbial decay of plant detritus and increase soil C storage across a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems. This aspect of global change has the potential to constrain the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere, and hence slow the pace of climate warming. The molecular and microbial mechanisms underlying this biogeochemical response are not understood, and they are not a component of any coupled climate-biogeochemical model estimating ecosystem C storage, and hence, the future climate of an N-enriched Earth. Here, we report the use of genomic-enabled approaches to identify the molecular underpinnings of the microbial mechanisms leading to greater soil C storage in response to anthropogenic N deposition, thereby enabling us to better anticipate changes in soil C storage.

  14. Anthropogenic Emissions Change the Amount and Composition of Organic PM1 in Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sá, S. S.; Palm, B. B.; Campuzano Jost, P.; Day, D. A.; Hu, W.; Isaacman-VanWertz, G. A.; Yee, L.; Wernis, R. A.; Thalman, R.; Brito, J.; Carbone, S.; Artaxo, P.; Goldstein, A. H.; Manzi, A. O.; Souza, R. A. F. D.; Wang, J.; Alexander, M. L. L.; Jimenez, J. L.; Martin, S. T.

    2017-12-01

    The Amazon forest, while one of the few regions on the globe where pristine conditions may still prevail, has experienced rapid changes due to increasing urbanization in the past decades. Manaus, a Brazilian city of 2-million people in the central Amazon basin, releases a pollution plume over the forest, potentially affecting the production pathways of particulate matter (PM) in the region. As part of GoAmazon2014/5, a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) and a suite of other gas and particle-phase instruments were deployed at the T3 research site, 70 km downwind of Manaus, during the wet and dry seasons. Through a combination of meteorology, emissions, and chemistry, the T3 site was affected by a mixture of biogenic emissions from the tropical rainforest, urban outflow from the Manaus metropolitan area and biomass burning plumes. Results from the T3 site are presented in the context of measurements at T0a/T0t and T2, sites representing predominantly clean and polluted conditions, respectively. The organic component consistently represented on average 70-80% of the PM1 mass concentration across sites and seasons, and constitutes the focus of this work. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis was applied to the time series of organic mass spectra. The resulting factors, which included the so-called IEPOX-SOA, MO-OOA, LO-OOA, BBOA, Fac91 and HOA, provide information on the relative contributions of different sources and pathways to organic PM production. In addition, Fuzzy c-means clustering was applied to the time series of pollution indicators, including concentrations of NOy, total particle number, ozone and sulfate, in order to better understand the convoluted influences of different processes and airmass origin to each point in time. Through combination of the PMF and Fuzzy c-means analyses, insights are drawn about the relative composition of organic PM1 at varying degrees of influence of biogenic and anthropogenic

  15. How well do ecosystem indicators communicate the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McQuatters-Gollop, A.; Gilbert, A.J.; Mee, L.; Vermaat, J.E.; Artioli, Y.; Humborg, C.; Wulff, F.

    2009-01-01

    Anthropogenic eutrophication affects the Mediterranean, Black, North and Baltic Seas to various extents. Responses to nutrient loading and methods of monitoring relevant indicators vary regionally, hindering interpretation of ecosystem state changes and preventing a straightforward pan-European

  16. Environmental forcing, invasion and control of ecological and epidemiological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenman, J V; Norman, R A

    2007-08-07

    Destabilising a biological system through periodic or stochastic forcing can lead to significant changes in system behaviour. Forcing can bring about coexistence when previously there was exclusion; it can excite massive system response through resonance, it can offset the negative effect of apparent competition and it can change the conditions under which the system can be invaded. Our main focus is on the invasion properties of continuous time models under periodic forcing. We show that invasion is highly sensitive to the strength, period, phase, shape and configuration of the forcing components. This complexity can be of great advantage if some of the forcing components are anthropogenic in origin. They can be turned into instruments of control to achieve specific objectives in ecology and disease management, for example. Culling, vaccination and resource regulation are considered. A general analysis is presented, based on the leading Lyapunov exponent criterion for invasion. For unstructured invaders, a formula for this exponent can typically be written down from the model equations. Whether forcing hinders or encourages invasion depends on two factors: the covariances between invader parameters and resident populations and the shifts in average resident population levels brought about by the forcing. The invasion dynamics of a structured invader are much more complicated but an analytic solution can be obtained in quadratic approximation for moderate forcing strength. The general theory is illustrated by a range of models drawn from ecology and epidemiology. The relationship between periodic and stochastic forcing is also considered.

  17. Land use changes and its driving forces in hilly ecological restoration area based on gis and rs of northern china

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Peng; Niu, Xiang; Wang, Bing; Zheng, Yunlong

    2015-01-01

    Land use change is one of the important aspects of the regional ecological restoration research. With remote sensing (RS) image in 2003, 2007 and 2012, using geographic information system (GIS) technologies, the land use pattern changes in Yimeng Mountain ecological restoration area in China and its driving force factors were studied. Results showed that: (1) Cultivated land constituted the largest area during 10 years, and followed by forest land and grass land; cultivated land and unused land were reduced by 28.43% and 44.32%, whereas forest land, water area and land for water facilities and others were increased. (2) During 2003–2007, forest land change showed the largest, followed by unused land and grass land; however, during 2008–2012, water area and land for water facilities change showed the largest, followed by grass land and unused land. (3) Land use degree was above the average level, it was in the developing period during 2003–2007 and in the degenerating period during 2008–2012. (4) Ecological Restoration Projects can greatly change the micro topography, increase vegetation coverage, and then induce significant changes in the land use distribution, which were the main driving force factors of the land use pattern change in the ecological restoration area. PMID:26047160

  18. Disparity changes in 370 Ma Devonian fossils: the signature of ecological dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Catherine; Renaud, Sabrina

    2012-01-01

    Early periods in Earth's history have seen a progressive increase in complexity of the ecosystems, but also dramatic crises decimating the biosphere. Such patterns are usually considered as large-scale changes among supra-specific groups, including morphological novelties, radiation, and extinctions. Nevertheless, in the same time, each species evolved by the way of micro-evolutionary processes, extended over millions of years into the evolution of lineages. How these two evolutionary scales interacted is a challenging issue because this requires bridging a gap between scales of observation and processes. The present study aims at transferring a typical macro-evolutionary approach, namely disparity analysis, to the study of fine-scale evolutionary variations in order to decipher what processes actually drove the dynamics of diversity at a micro-evolutionary level. The Late Frasnian to Late Famennian period was selected because it is punctuated by two major macro-evolutionary crises, as well as a progressive diversification of marine ecosystem. Disparity was estimated through this period on conodonts, tooth-like fossil remains of small eel-like predators that were part of the nektonic fauna. The study was focused on the emblematic genus of the period, Palmatolepis. Strikingly, both crises affected an already impoverished Palmatolepis disparity, increasing risks of random extinction. The major disparity signal rather emerged as a cycle of increase and decrease in disparity during the inter-crises period. The diversification shortly followed the first crisis and might correspond to an opportunistic occupation of empty ecological niche. The subsequent oriented shrinking in the morphospace occupation suggests that the ecological space available to Palmatolepis decreased through time, due to a combination of factors: deteriorating climate, expansion of competitors and predators. Disparity changes of Palmatolepis thus reflect changes in the structure of the ecological

  19. Disparity changes in 370 Ma Devonian fossils: the signature of ecological dynamics?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Girard

    Full Text Available Early periods in Earth's history have seen a progressive increase in complexity of the ecosystems, but also dramatic crises decimating the biosphere. Such patterns are usually considered as large-scale changes among supra-specific groups, including morphological novelties, radiation, and extinctions. Nevertheless, in the same time, each species evolved by the way of micro-evolutionary processes, extended over millions of years into the evolution of lineages. How these two evolutionary scales interacted is a challenging issue because this requires bridging a gap between scales of observation and processes. The present study aims at transferring a typical macro-evolutionary approach, namely disparity analysis, to the study of fine-scale evolutionary variations in order to decipher what processes actually drove the dynamics of diversity at a micro-evolutionary level. The Late Frasnian to Late Famennian period was selected because it is punctuated by two major macro-evolutionary crises, as well as a progressive diversification of marine ecosystem. Disparity was estimated through this period on conodonts, tooth-like fossil remains of small eel-like predators that were part of the nektonic fauna. The study was focused on the emblematic genus of the period, Palmatolepis. Strikingly, both crises affected an already impoverished Palmatolepis disparity, increasing risks of random extinction. The major disparity signal rather emerged as a cycle of increase and decrease in disparity during the inter-crises period. The diversification shortly followed the first crisis and might correspond to an opportunistic occupation of empty ecological niche. The subsequent oriented shrinking in the morphospace occupation suggests that the ecological space available to Palmatolepis decreased through time, due to a combination of factors: deteriorating climate, expansion of competitors and predators. Disparity changes of Palmatolepis thus reflect changes in the structure

  20. Representing anthropogenic gross land use change, wood harvest, and forest age dynamics in a global vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Li, Wei; McGrath, Matthew J.; Chang, Jinfeng; Peng, Shushi

    2018-01-01

    Land use change (LUC) is among the main anthropogenic disturbances in the global carbon cycle. Here we present the model developments in a global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2 for a more realistic representation of LUC processes. First, we included gross land use change (primarily shifting cultivation) and forest wood harvest in addition to net land use change. Second, we included sub-grid evenly aged land cohorts to represent secondary forests and to keep track of the transient stage of agricultural lands since LUC. Combination of these two features allows the simulation of shifting cultivation with a rotation length involving mainly secondary forests instead of primary ones. Furthermore, a set of decision rules regarding the land cohorts to be targeted in different LUC processes have been implemented. Idealized site-scale simulation has been performed for miombo woodlands in southern Africa assuming an annual land turnover rate of 5 % grid cell area between forest and cropland. The result shows that the model can correctly represent forest recovery and cohort aging arising from agricultural abandonment. Such a land turnover process, even though without a net change in land cover, yields carbon emissions largely due to the imbalance between the fast release from forest clearing and the slow uptake from agricultural abandonment. The simulation with sub-grid land cohorts gives lower emissions than without, mainly because the cleared secondary forests have a lower biomass carbon stock than the mature forests that are otherwise cleared when sub-grid land cohorts are not considered. Over the region of southern Africa, the model is able to account for changes in different forest cohort areas along with the historical changes in different LUC activities, including regrowth of old forests when LUC area decreases. Our developments provide possibilities to account for continental or global forest demographic change resulting from past anthropogenic and

  1. Camouflage through colour change: mechanisms, adaptive value and ecological significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Rafael C; Flores, Augusto A V; Stevens, Martin

    2017-07-05

    Animals from a wide range of taxonomic groups are capable of colour change, of which camouflage is one of the main functions. A considerable amount of past work on this subject has investigated species capable of extremely rapid colour change (in seconds). However, relatively slow colour change (over hours, days, weeks and months), as well as changes arising via developmental plasticity are probably more common than rapid changes, yet less studied. We discuss three key areas of colour change and camouflage. First, we review the mechanisms underpinning colour change and developmental plasticity for camouflage, including cellular processes, visual feedback, hormonal control and dietary factors. Second, we discuss the adaptive value of colour change for camouflage, including the use of different camouflage types. Third, we discuss the evolutionary-ecological implications of colour change for concealment, including what it can tell us about intraspecific colour diversity, morph-specific strategies, and matching to different environments and microhabitats. Throughout, we discuss key unresolved questions and present directions for future work, and highlight how colour change facilitates camouflage among habitats and arises when animals are faced with environmental changes occurring over a range of spatial and temporal scales.This article is part of the themed issue 'Animal coloration: production, perception, function and application'. © 2017 The Authors.

  2. Ecological implications of changes in polychaetes population in a shallow Danish estuary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delefosse, Matthieu

    Burrowing polychaetes are typically the most numerous and active class among macrobenthic infauna in Danish estuaries. Their ecological role is well-recognized and has been often associated with their bioturbating activities. Construction and maintenance of galleries as well as ingestion and defe......Burrowing polychaetes are typically the most numerous and active class among macrobenthic infauna in Danish estuaries. Their ecological role is well-recognized and has been often associated with their bioturbating activities. Construction and maintenance of galleries as well as ingestion...... and defecation displace sediment particles. Ventilation of their burrow irrigates the sediment. These activities transform the environment for other species: from microbes to plants (MS5). Given the important relations between bioturbating polychaetes and their ecosystem, any significant changes in population...... of a key species may have consequent impact on the ecosystem. The introduction of non-native species is an important vector of change for the often species-poor benthic community of Danish estuaries. Non-native species may bring new functions but also interact with native fauna species. The work presented...

  3. Barents Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus: population biology and anthropogenic threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnus Andersen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines how anthropogenic threats, such as disturbance, pollution and climate change, are linked to polar bear (Ursus maritimus population biology in the Svalbard and Barents Sea area, with the aim to increase our understanding of how human activity may impact the population. Overharvesting drastically reduced the population of polar bears in the Barents Sea region from about 1870 to 1970. After harvesting was stopped—in 1956 in Russia and 1973 in Norway—the population grew to an estimated 2650 individuals (95% confidence interval 1900–3600 in 2004, and maternity denning in the Svalbard Archipelago became more widely distributed. During recent decades, the population has faced challenges from a variety of new anthropogenic impacts: a range of pollutants, an increasing level of human presence and activity as well as changes in ice conditions. Contaminants bioaccumulate up through the marine food web, culminating in this top predator that consumes ringed, bearded and harp seals. Females with small cubs use land-fast sea ice for hunting and are therefore vulnerable to disturbance by snowmobile drivers. Sea-ice diminution, associated with climate change, reduces polar bears’ access to denning areas and could negatively affect the survival of cubs. There are clear linkages between population biology and current anthropogenic threats, and we suggest that future research and management should focus on and take into consideration the combined effects of several stressors on polar bears.

  4. Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

    2014-12-01

    The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

  5. A policy-driven large scale ecological restoration: quantifying ecosystem services changes in the Loess Plateau of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lü, Yihe; Fu, Bojie; Feng, Xiaoming; Zeng, Yuan; Liu, Yu; Chang, Ruiying; Sun, Ge; Wu, Bingfang

    2012-01-01

    As one of the key tools for regulating human-ecosystem relations, environmental conservation policies can promote ecological rehabilitation across a variety of spatiotemporal scales. However, quantifying the ecological effects of such policies at the regional level is difficult. A case study was conducted at the regional level in the ecologically vulnerable region of the Loess Plateau, China, through the use of several methods including the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), hydrological modeling and multivariate analysis. An assessment of the changes over the period of 2000-2008 in four key ecosystem services was undertaken to determine the effects of the Chinese government's ecological rehabilitation initiatives implemented in 1999. These ecosystem services included water regulation, soil conservation, carbon sequestration and grain production. Significant conversions of farmland to woodland and grassland were found to have resulted in enhanced soil conservation and carbon sequestration, but decreased regional water yield under a warming and drying climate trend. The total grain production increased in spite of a significant decline in farmland acreage. These trends have been attributed to the strong socioeconomic incentives embedded in the ecological rehabilitation policy. Although some positive policy results have been achieved over the last decade, large uncertainty remains regarding long-term policy effects on the sustainability of ecological rehabilitation performance and ecosystem service enhancement. To reduce such uncertainty, this study calls for an adaptive management approach to regional ecological rehabilitation policy to be adopted, with a focus on the dynamic interactions between people and their environments in a changing world.

  6. Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

    2018-01-01

    Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as

  7. Estimating animal mortality from anthropogenic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcass searches are a common method for studying the risk of anthropogenic hazards to wildlife, including non-target poisoning and collisions with anthropogenic structures. Typically, numbers of carcasses found must be corrected for scavenging rates and imperfect detection. Para...

  8. Towards low energy consumption in Finland - An ecological change in economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sairinen, R.; Jaervilehto, P.

    1994-01-01

    Per capita energy consumption in Finland is twice the OECD average. Could Finland become a society with low energy consumption? What would that mean and why we need lower energy consumption and higher efficiency? These are questions dealt with in this article. The authors suggest that ecological goals could and should be considered in connection with the necessary changes in the economic structures resulting from the present economic depression. (orig.)

  9. Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Liu, Zhifei; Wang, Peng; Liu, Guiying; Lu, Fucai

    2013-01-01

    Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran’s I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model. PMID:24384778

  10. Exploring the mechanisms of ecological land change based on the spatial autoregressive model: a case study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Liu, Zhifei; Wang, Peng; Liu, Guiying; Lu, Fucai

    2013-12-31

    Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran's I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model.

  11. Community ecology in a changing environment: Perspectives from the Quaternary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Stephen T; Blois, Jessica L

    2015-04-21

    Community ecology and paleoecology are both concerned with the composition and structure of biotic assemblages but are largely disconnected. Community ecology focuses on existing species assemblages and recently has begun to integrate history (phylogeny and continental or intercontinental dispersal) to constrain community processes. This division has left a "missing middle": Ecological and environmental processes occurring on timescales from decades to millennia are not yet fully incorporated into community ecology. Quaternary paleoecology has a wealth of data documenting ecological dynamics at these timescales, and both fields can benefit from greater interaction and articulation. We discuss ecological insights revealed by Quaternary terrestrial records, suggest foundations for bridging between the disciplines, and identify topics where the disciplines can engage to mutual benefit.

  12. Ecosystem changes in the Neva Estuary (Baltic Sea): natural dynamics or response to anthropogenic impacts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golubkov, Sergey; Alimov, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    The Neva Estuary situated in the eastern Gulf of Finland is one of the largest estuaries of the Baltic Sea with a large conurbation, St. Petersburg, situated on its coast. Eutrophication, alien species and large-scale digging and dumping of bottom sediment are the most prominent anthropogenic impacts on its ecosystem. However, many ecosystem responses, which are traditionally attribute to these impacts, are related to natural dynamics of the ecosystem. Fluctuations in discharge of the Neva River, intrusions of bottom hypoxic waters from the western part of the Gulf of Finland, higher summer temperatures and a shorter period of ice cover are climatic mediated factors inducing adverse changes in its ecosystem from the 1980s onwards. The main ecosystem responses to these factors are 2-3-fold increase of trophic status, deterioration of native zoobenthic communities and establishment of alien species, as well as the many fold decrease of fish catch and the population of ringed seal in the region. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Assessing Sources of Stress to Aquatic Ecosystems: Using Biomarkers and Bioindicators to Characterize Exodure-Response Profiles of Anthropogenic Activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adams, S.M.

    1999-03-29

    Establishing causal relationships between sources of environmental stressors and aquatic ecosystem health if difficult because of the many biotic and abiotic factors which can influence or modify responses of biological systems to stress, the orders of magnitude involved in extrapolation over both spatial and temporal scales, and compensatory mechanisms such as density-dependent responses that operate in populations. To address the problem of establishing causality between stressors and effects on aquatic systems, a diagnostic approach, based on exposure-response profiles for various anthropogenic activities, was developed to help identify sources of stress responsible for effects on aquatic systems at ecological significant levels of biological organization (individual, population, community). To generate these exposure-effects profiles, biomarkers of exposure were plotted against bioindicators of corresponding effects for several major anthropogenic activities including petrochemical , pulp and paper, domestic sewage, mining operations, land-development activities, and agricultural activities. Biomarkers of exposure to environmental stressors varied depending on the type of anthropogenic activity involved. Bioindicator effects, however, including histopathological lesions, bioenergetic status, individual growth, reproductive impairment, and community-level responses were similar among many of the major anthropogenic activities. This approach is valuable to help identify and diagnose sources of stressors in environments impacted by multiple stressors. By identifying the types and sources of environmental stressors, aquatic ecosystems can be more effectively protected and managed to maintain acceptable levels of environmental quality and ecosystem fitness.

  14. Perceptions of Socio-Ecological Changes and Their Implications on Changes in Farming Practises and Agricultural Land Uses in the Savannahs of Northeast Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kojo Boateng

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the perceptions of local farming households in the savannahs of northeast Ghana about the patterns of ecological and social changes happening around them over the years. It then unpacks how those perceptions are influencing farming practices and agricultural land use changes. Theoretical and empirical understandings of the value of local resource users’ perceptual judgements about changes in their socio-ecological environment and how they respond to those changes have far-reaching implications for design of agricultural development and sustainable land management policies. Consideration of local perceptions offers more informed basis to design and implement agricultural development policies in ways that encourage active local participation, sustainable livelihoods development, and responsiveness to changing conditions. This departs from current conventional implementation systems, which are usually top-down and based on technical and political aspects of agricultural land management, but do not necessarily comprehend processes influencing the agency of local communities in shaping various agricultural land use outcomes.

  15. Initial estimates of anthropogenic heat emissions for the City of Durban

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Padayachi, Yerdashin R

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Cities in South Africa are key hotspots for regional emissions and climate change impacts including the urban heat island effect. Anthropogenic Heat (AH) emission is an important driver of warming in urban areas. The implementation of mitigation...

  16. Influence of lag effect, soil release, and climate change on watershed anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine export dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dingjiang; Huang, Hong; Hu, Minpeng; Dahlgren, Randy A

    2014-05-20

    This study demonstrates the importance of the nitrogen-leaching lag effect, soil nitrogen release, and climate change on anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and riverine total nitrogen (TN) export dynamics using a 30-yr record for the Yongan River watershed in eastern China. Cross-correlation analysis indicated a 7-yr, 5-yr, and 4-yr lag time in riverine TN export in response to changes in NANI, temperature, and drained agricultural land area, respectively. Enhanced by warmer temperature and improved agricultural drainage, the upper 20 cm of agricultural soils released 270 kg N ha(-1) between 1980 and 2009. Climate change also increased the fractional export of NANI to river. An empirical model (R(2) = 0.96) for annual riverine TN flux incorporating these influencing factors estimated 35%, 41%, and 24% of riverine TN flux originated from the soil N pool, NANI, and background N sources, respectively. The model forecasted an increase of 45%, 25%, and 6% and a decrease of 13% in riverine TN flux from 2010 to 2030 under continued development, climate change, status-quo, and tackling scenarios, respectively. The lag effect, soil N release, and climate change delay riverine TN export reductions with respect to decreases in NANI and should be considered in developing and evaluating N management measures.

  17. Simulations of the global carbon cycle and anthropogenic CO{sub 2} transient. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarmiento, J.L.

    1994-07-01

    This research focuses on improving the understanding of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide transient using observations and models of the past and present. In addition, an attempt is made to develop an ability to predict the future of the carbon cycle in response to continued anthropogenic perturbations and climate change. Three aspects of the anthropogenic carbon budget were investigated: (1) the globally integrated budget at the present time; (2) the time history of the carbon budget; and (3) the spatial distribution of carbon fluxes. One of the major activities of this study was the participation in the model comparison study of Enting, et al. [1994] carried out in preparation for the IPCC 1994 report.

  18. Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Wetland and Agriculture in the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Influences of the increasing pressure of climate change and anthropogenic activities on wetlands ecosystems and agriculture are significant around the world. This paper assessed the spatiotemporal land use and land cover changes (LULCC, especially for conversion from marshland to other LULC types (e.g., croplands over the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain (SNP and SJP, northeast China, during the past 35 years (1980–2015. The relative role of human activities and climatic changes in terms of their impacts on wetlands and agriculture dynamics were quantitatively distinguished and evaluated in different periods based on a seven-stage LULC dataset. Our results indicated that human activities, such as population expansion and socioeconomic development, and institutional policies related to wetlands and agriculture were the main driving forces for LULCC of the SJP and SNP during the past decades, while increasing contributions of climatic changes were also found. Furthermore, as few studies have identified which geographic regions are most at risk, how the future climate changes will spatially and temporally impact wetlands and agriculture, i.e., the suitability of wetlands and agriculture distributions under different future climate change scenarios, were predicted and analyzed using a habitat distribution model (Maxent at the pixel-scale. The present findings can provide valuable references for policy makers on regional sustainability for food security, water resource rational management, agricultural planning and wetland protection as well as restoration of the region.

  19. The European Water Framework Directive: How Ecological Assumptions Frame Technical and Social Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Steyaert

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The European Water Framework Directive (WFD is built upon significant cognitive developments in the field of ecological science but also encourages active involvement of all interested parties in its implementation. The coexistence in the same policy text of both substantive and procedural approaches to policy development stimulated this research as did our concerns about the implications of substantive ecological visions within the WFD policy for promoting, or not, social learning processes through participatory designs. We have used a qualitative analysis of the WFD text which shows the ecological dimension of the WFD dedicates its quasi-exclusive attention to a particular current of thought in ecosystems science focusing on ecosystems status and stability and considering human activities as disturbance factors. This particular worldview is juxtaposed within the WFD with a more utilitarian one that gives rise to many policy exemptions without changing the general underlying ecological model. We discuss these policy statements in the light of the tension between substantive and procedural policy developments. We argue that the dominant substantive approach of the WFD, comprising particular ecological assumptions built upon "compositionalism," seems to be contradictory with its espoused intention of involving the public. We discuss that current of thought in regard to more functionalist thinking and adaptive management, which offers greater opportunities for social learning, i.e., place a set of interdependent stakeholders in an intersubjective position in which they operate a "social construction" of water problems through the co-production of knowledge.

  20. Anthropogenics: human influence on global and genetic homogenization of parasite populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarlenga, Dante S; Hoberg, Eric; Rosenthal, Benjamin; Mattiucci, Simonetta; Nascetti, Giuseppe

    2014-12-01

    The distribution, abundance, and diversity of life on Earth have been greatly shaped by human activities. This includes the geographic expansion of parasites; however, measuring the extent to which humans have influenced the dissemination and population structure of parasites has been challenging. In-depth comparisons among parasite populations extending to landscape-level processes affecting disease emergence have remained elusive. New research methods have enhanced our capacity to discern human impact, where the tools of population genetics and molecular epidemiology have begun to shed light on our historical and ongoing influence. Only since the 1990s have parasitologists coupled morphological diagnosis, long considered the basis of surveillance and biodiversity studies, with state-of-the-art tools enabling variation to be examined among, and within, parasite populations. Prior to this time, populations were characterized only by phenotypic attributes such as virulence, infectivity, host range, and geographical location. The advent of genetic/molecular methodologies (multilocus allozyme electrophoresis, polymerase chain reaction-DNA [PCR-DNA] fragments analysis, DNA sequencing, DNA microsatellites, single nucleotide polymorphisms, etc.) have transformed our abilities to reveal variation among, and within, populations at local, regional, landscape, and global scales, and thereby enhanced our understanding of the biosphere. Numerous factors can affect population structure among parasites, e.g., evolutionary and ecological history, mode of reproduction and transmission, host dispersal, and life-cycle complexity. Although such influences can vary considerably among parasite taxa, anthropogenic factors are demonstrably perturbing parasite fauna. Minimal genetic structure among many geographically distinct (isolated) populations is a hallmark of human activity, hastened by geographic introductions, environmental perturbation, and global warming. Accelerating

  1. [Remote sensing analysis of ecological change caused by construction of the new island city: Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone, Fujian Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Xiao-le; Lin, Zheng-feng; Tang, Fei

    2015-02-01

    Pingtan Island was officially established as the 'Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone of Fujian' in 2010, and it led to a surge of construction in the island city. Based on the Landsat-5 images for 2007 and the latest Landsat-8 images for 2013, this paper studied the ecological status, the temporal trends of the ecological changes and the reasons for those changes in Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone at its early stage of construction, by using the remote sensing of ecological index (RSEI). The results showed that as an ecologically fragile area, Pingtan Island had a moderate level of overall ecological status. In the early construction period (from 2007 to 2013), the ecological status of the island showed a downward trend, with a 14% drop of RSEI from 0.511 in 2007 down to 0.450 in 2013, and approximately 36.5% of the area of the island faced the degradation of ecological status, which mainly occurred in the central and southwestern parts of the island. The reason for the degradation was mainly due to the large-scale construction which further damaged the scarce vegetation on the island. Therefore, in order to curb the downward trend of the ecological quality of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone, some effective ecological protection measures must be developed and implemented during the construction.

  2. How livestock and flooding mediate the ecological integrity of working forests in Amazon River floodplains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Christine M; Sheikh, Pervaze; Gagnon, Paul R; Mcgrath, David G

    2016-01-01

    drivers of ecological change, we provide much-needed data on the regrowth of a critical but poorly studied ecosystem. In addition to its emphasis on the dynamics of tropical wetland forests undergoing anthropogenic and environmental change, our case study is an important example for how to assess of ecological integrity in working forests of tropical ecosystems.

  3. Landscape ecological impact of climatic change some preliminary findings of the LICC Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, M.M.

    1991-01-01

    The main objectives of the LICC project are to address the potential effects of a future climatic change on (semi-) natural terrestrial ecosystems and landscapes in Europe; six case studies are covered: alpine regions, boreal and subartic regions, Mediterranean region, fluvial systems, wetlands and coastal dunes. Preliminary findings showed a serious lack in fundamental ecological knowledge. Assessment of potential effects involved changes in water and sediment fluxes, changes in the vegetation cover, species response, dispersal and migration in a fragmented landscape and modification of climate impacts by man

  4. Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

    2018-01-01

    Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

  5. Continental-scale assessment of long-term trends in wet deposition trajectories: Role of anthropogenic and hydro-climatic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J.; Gall, H. E.; Niyogi, D.; Rao, S.

    2012-12-01

    The global trend of increased urbanization, and associated increased intensity of energy and material consumption and waste emissions, has contributed to shifts in the trajectories of aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments. Here, we focus on continental-scale spatiotemporal patterns in two atmospheric constituents (nitrate and sulfate), whose global biogeochemical cycles have been dramatically altered by emissions from mobile and fixed sources in urbanized and industrialized regions. The observed patterns in wet deposition fluxes of nitrate and sulfate are controlled by (1) natural hydro-climatic forcing, and (2) anthropogenic forcing (emissions and regulatory control), both of which are characterized by stochasticity and non-stationarity. We examine long-term wet deposition records in the U.S., Europe, and East Asia to evaluate how anthropogenic and natural forcing factors jointly contributed to the shifting temporal patterns of wet deposition fluxes at continental scales. These data offer clear evidence for successful implementation of regulatory controls and widespread adoption of technologies contributed to improving water quality and mitigation of adverse ecological impacts. We developed a stochastic model to project the future trajectories of wet deposition fluxes in emerging countries with fast growing urban areas. The model generates ellipses within which projected wet deposition flux trajectories are inscribed, similar to the trends in observational data. The shape of the ellipses provides information regarding the relative dominance of anthropogenic (e.g., industrial and urban emissions) versus hydro-climatic drivers (e.g., rainfall patterns, aridity index). Our analysis facilitates projections of the trajectory shift as a result of urbanization and other land-use changes, climate change, and regulatory enforcement. We use these observed data and the model to project likely trajectories for rapidly developing countries (BRIC), with a

  6. Biological and ecological characteristics of soft ticks (Ixodida: Argasidae and their impact for predicting tick and associated disease distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vial L.

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available As evidence of global changes is accumulating, scientists are challenged to detect distribution changes of vectors, reservoirs and pathogens caused by anthropogenic and/or environmental changes. Statistical and mathematical distribution models are emerging for ixodid hard ticks whereas no prediction has ever been developed for argasid ones. These last organisms remain unknown and under-reported; they differ from hard ticks by many structural, biological and ecological properties, which complicate direct adaptation of hard tick models. However, investigations on bibliographic resources concerning these ticks suggest that distribution modelling based on natural niche concept and using environmental factors especially climate is also possible, bearing in mind the scale of prediction and their specificities including their nidicolous lifestyle, an indiscriminate host feeding and a short bloodmeal duration, as well as a flexible development cycle through diapause periods.

  7. Aquatic subsidies transport anthropogenic nitrogen to riparian spiders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akamatsu, Fumikazu, E-mail: f-akamt55@pwri.go.jp [Department of Environmental Sciences, Shinshu University, 3-1-1 Asahi, Matsumoto, Nagano 390-8621 (Japan); Toda, Hideshige [Department of Environmental Sciences, Shinshu University, 3-1-1 Asahi, Matsumoto, Nagano 390-8621 (Japan)

    2011-05-15

    Stable nitrogen isotopic composition ({delta}{sup 15}N) of aquatic biota increases with anthropogenic N inputs such as sewage and livestock waste downstream. Increase in {delta}{sup 15}N of riparian spiders downstream may reflect the anthropogenic pollution exposure through predation on aquatic insects. A two-source mixing model based on stable carbon isotopic composition showed the greatest dependence on aquatic insects (84%) by horizontal web-building spiders, followed by intermediate (48%) and low (31%) dependence by cursorial and vertical web-building spiders, respectively. The spider body size was negatively correlated with the dietary proportion of aquatic insects and spider {delta}{sup 15}N. The aquatic subsidies transported anthropogenic N to smaller riparian spiders downstream. This transport of anthropogenic N was regulated by spider's guild designation and body size. - Highlights: > {delta}{sup 15}N of aquatic insects increases downstream with anthropogenic nitrogen inputs. > {delta}{sup 15}N of riparian spiders increases with a high dietary proportion of aquatic insects and smaller spider body size. > The aquatic subsidies transport anthropogenic nitrogen to smaller riparian spiders downstream. - Smaller spiders assimilate anthropogenic nitrogen through the predation on aquatic subsides.

  8. Aquatic subsidies transport anthropogenic nitrogen to riparian spiders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akamatsu, Fumikazu; Toda, Hideshige

    2011-01-01

    Stable nitrogen isotopic composition (δ 15 N) of aquatic biota increases with anthropogenic N inputs such as sewage and livestock waste downstream. Increase in δ 15 N of riparian spiders downstream may reflect the anthropogenic pollution exposure through predation on aquatic insects. A two-source mixing model based on stable carbon isotopic composition showed the greatest dependence on aquatic insects (84%) by horizontal web-building spiders, followed by intermediate (48%) and low (31%) dependence by cursorial and vertical web-building spiders, respectively. The spider body size was negatively correlated with the dietary proportion of aquatic insects and spider δ 15 N. The aquatic subsidies transported anthropogenic N to smaller riparian spiders downstream. This transport of anthropogenic N was regulated by spider's guild designation and body size. - Highlights: → δ 15 N of aquatic insects increases downstream with anthropogenic nitrogen inputs. → δ 15 N of riparian spiders increases with a high dietary proportion of aquatic insects and smaller spider body size. → The aquatic subsidies transport anthropogenic nitrogen to smaller riparian spiders downstream. - Smaller spiders assimilate anthropogenic nitrogen through the predation on aquatic subsides.

  9. Ecological function as a target for ecosystem-based management: Defining when change matters in decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystem-based management (EBM) accounts for both direct and indirect drivers of ecological change for decision making. Just as with direct management of a resource, EBM requires a definition of management thresholds that define when change in function is sufficient to merit ma...

  10. Using a Multi-Method Approach to Examine Social-Ecological Vulnerability to Climate Change and Natural Resource Policies on the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, J.; Hopping, K. A.; Yeh, E.; Nyima, Y.; Galvin, K.; Boone, R.; Dorje, T.; Ojima, D. S.

    2012-12-01

    Pastoralists and ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau are facing a suite of novel stresses. Temperatures are increasing several times more than the global average. The frequency and severity of severe snowstorms, which lead to critical losses of livestock, are also increasing. Pastoralists are also experiencing changes to their livelihood activities, including reduced mobility and severe grazing restrictions. We are using interdisciplinary frameworks and methods that integrate results from a multifactor ecological experiment, household interviews, remote sensing, and a coupled ecosystem and household decision-making model to examine herder and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events (snow disasters) within the context of changing natural resource management policies in China. The fully factorial ecological experiment includes two climate changes (warming and spring snow additions) and two types of grazing (yak and pika) that are being affected by current policy. We established the experiment in 2008 within the Tibet Autonomous Region. We are monitoring microclimate, vegetation, nutrient availability, ecosystem carbon fluxes and stable isotope signatures of select plant species. Through this experiment, we are investigating the sensitivity of the system, whether it can cross critical thresholds, and how resilient this system may be to predicted future climate and land use changes. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews on indigenous knowledge and vulnerability complement the ecological experimental work. We are asking herders about climate and ecological change and their drivers and are also conducting interviews on vulnerability to snow disasters across a three site, 300-500mm precipitation gradient. We are using remote sensing to identify biophysical landscape change over time. To integrate our ecological and social findings, we are coupling the Savanna ecosystem model to the DECUMA agent-based pastoral household model. Our results to date

  11. Gourds and squashes (Cucurbita spp.) adapted to megafaunal extinction and ecological anachronism through domestication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kistler, Logan; Newsom, Lee A; Ryan, Timothy M; Clarke, Andrew C; Smith, Bruce D; Perry, George H

    2015-12-08

    The genus Cucurbita (squashes, pumpkins, gourds) contains numerous domesticated lineages with ancient New World origins. It was broadly distributed in the past but has declined to the point that several of the crops' progenitor species are scarce or unknown in the wild. We hypothesize that Holocene ecological shifts and megafaunal extinctions severely impacted wild Cucurbita, whereas their domestic counterparts adapted to changing conditions via symbiosis with human cultivators. First, we used high-throughput sequencing to analyze complete plastid genomes of 91 total Cucurbita samples, comprising ancient (n = 19), modern wild (n = 30), and modern domestic (n = 42) taxa. This analysis demonstrates independent domestication in eastern North America, evidence of a previously unknown pathway to domestication in northeastern Mexico, and broad archaeological distributions of taxa currently unknown in the wild. Further, sequence similarity between distant wild populations suggests recent fragmentation. Collectively, these results point to wild-type declines coinciding with widespread domestication. Second, we hypothesize that the disappearance of large herbivores struck a critical ecological blow against wild Cucurbita, and we take initial steps to consider this hypothesis through cross-mammal analyses of bitter taste receptor gene repertoires. Directly, megafauna consumed Cucurbita fruits and dispersed their seeds; wild Cucurbita were likely left without mutualistic dispersal partners in the Holocene because they are unpalatable to smaller surviving mammals with more bitter taste receptor genes. Indirectly, megafauna maintained mosaic-like landscapes ideal for Cucurbita, and vegetative changes following the megafaunal extinctions likely crowded out their disturbed-ground niche. Thus, anthropogenic landscapes provided favorable growth habitats and willing dispersal partners in the wake of ecological upheaval.

  12. Time Factor in the Theory of Anthropogenic Risk Prediction in Complex Dynamic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostreikovsky, V. A.; Shevchenko, Ye N.; Yurkov, N. K.; Kochegarov, I. I.; Grishko, A. K.

    2018-01-01

    The article overviews the anthropogenic risk models that take into consideration the development of different factors in time that influence the complex system. Three classes of mathematical models have been analyzed for the use in assessing the anthropogenic risk of complex dynamic systems. These models take into consideration time factor in determining the prospect of safety change of critical systems. The originality of the study is in the analysis of five time postulates in the theory of anthropogenic risk and the safety of highly important objects. It has to be stressed that the given postulates are still rarely used in practical assessment of equipment service life of critically important systems. That is why, the results of study presented in the article can be used in safety engineering and analysis of critically important complex technical systems.

  13. Who decides who has won the bet? Total and Anthropogenic Warming Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, K.; Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E. L.; Schmidt, A.; Frame, D. J.; Forster, P.; Matthews, D.

    2016-12-01

    An extension of the idea of betting markets as a means of revealing opinions about future climate are climate policies indexed to geophysical indicators: for example, to ensure net zero global carbon dioxide emissions by the time anthropogenic warming reaches 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial, given about 1 degree of warming already, emissions must fall, on average, by 20% of their current value for every tenth of a degree of anthropogenic warming from now on. In principle, policies conditioned on some measure of attributable warming are robust to uncertainty in the global climate response: the risk of a higher or lower response than expected is borne by those affected by climate change mitigation policy rather than those affected by climate change impacts, as is the case with emission targets for specific years based on "current understanding" of the response. To implement any indexed policy, or to agree payout terms for any bet on future climate, requires consensus on the definition of the index: how is it calculated, and who is responsible for releasing it? The global mean surface temperature of the current decade relative to pre-industrial may vary by 0.1 degree or more depending on precisely what is measured, what is defined as pre-industrial, and the treatment of regions with sparse data coverage in earlier years. Indices defined using different conventions, however, are all expected to evolve very similarly over the coming decades, so agreeing on a conservative, traceable index such as HadCRUT is more important than debating the "true" global temperature. A more important question is whether indexed policies and betting markets should focus on total warming, including natural and anthropogenic drivers and internal variability, or an Anthropogenic Warming Index (AWI) representing an unbiased estimate of warming attributable to human influence to date. We propose a simple AWI based solely on observed temperatures and global natural and anthropogenic forcing

  14. Process-based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Cuddington; M.-J. Fortin; L.R. Gerber; A. Hastings; A. Liebhold; M. OConnor; C. Ray

    2013-01-01

    Several modeling approaches can be used to guide management decisions. However, some approaches are better fitted than others to address the problem of prediction under global change. Process-based models, which are based on a theoretical understanding of relevant ecological processes, provide a useful framework to incorporate specific responses to altered...

  15. Urbanization and stream ecology: Diverse mechanisms of change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Allison; Capps, Krista A.; El-Sabaawi, Rana W.; Jones, Krista L.; Parr, Thomas B.; Ramirez, Alonso; Smith, Robert F.; Walsh, Christopher J.; Wenger, Seth J.

    2016-01-01

    The field of urban stream ecology has evolved rapidly in the last 3 decades, and it now includes natural scientists from numerous disciplines working with social scientists, landscape planners and designers, and land and water managers to address complex, socioecological problems that have manifested in urban landscapes. Over the last decade, stream ecologists have met 3 times at the Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology (SUSE) to discuss current research, identify knowledge gaps, and promote future research collaborations. The papers in this special series on urbanization and stream ecology include both primary research studies and conceptual synthesis papers spurred from discussions at SUSE in May 2014. The themes of the meeting are reflected in the papers in this series emphasizing global differences in mechanisms and responses of stream ecosystems to urbanization and management solutions in diverse urban streams. Our hope is that this series will encourage continued interdisciplinary and collaborative research to increase the global understanding of urban stream ecology toward stream protection and restoration in urban landscapes.

  16. Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualin Xie

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran’s I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p < 0.05. The results also imply that the clustering trend of ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model.

  17. Adaptation of reproductive phenology to climate change with ecological feedback via dominance hierarchies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Jacob; Smith, Henrik G; Jonzén, Niclas

    2014-03-01

    and demographic trends in a changing climate. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  18. ECOLOGY AND INNOVATION THE BASIS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT COURSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Rozenberg

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. We discuss some aspects of innovation activity in ecology (ecological rationing, new methods of bioindication and biomonitoring, waste disposal, environmental audits of territories etc.. Methods. The study was performed using the SF-36 Survey in accordance with the requirements of the International Quality of Life Assessment Project. Results. The problems of innovation in environmental management were discussed. We assessed the quality of life of the population in Dakhadayevsky district of Dagestan. New methods of bioindication and biomonitoring have been analyzed. We suggest methodological basis of environmental management, spatial and temporal variability and sustainability of ecosystems, optimal territorial units of environmental management, information support of environmental protection activities, modeling and forecasting of the natural environment, basin-landscape concept nature management. Conclusions. Anthropogenic changes in the environment to a large extent depend on the basin-landscape organization of natural processes. Local air pollution, erosion materials from agriculture, soil erosion, pollution of surface and groundwater related to the structural features of the watershed, landscape differentiation, climate, vegetation and soil cover. These population-based studies of quality of life make possible to evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation of various medical and social and economic programs aimed at improving the quality of life and well-being. They can serve as indicators of the environmental pillar of sustainable development, significantly adding to the overall picture of environmental research.

  19. Gut microbiome composition and metabolomic profiles/nof wild western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla)/nreflect host ecology

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gomez, A.; Petrželková, Klára Judita; Yeoman, C. J.; Vlčková, K.; Mrázek, J.; Koppova, I.; Carbonero, F.; Ulanov, A.; Modrý, David; Todd, A.; Torralba, M.; Nelson, K. E.; Gaskins, H. R.; Wilson, B.; Stumpf, R. M.; White, B. A.; Leigh, S. R.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 24, č. 10 (2015), s. 2551-2565 ISSN 0962-1083 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/09/0927 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : anthropogenic interactions * foraging ecology * metabolomics * microbiome * western lowland gorillas Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 5.947, year: 2015

  20. Wetland management strategies lead to tradeoffs in ecological structure and function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariane L. Peralta

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic legacy effects often occur as a consequence of land use change or land management and can leave behind long-lasting changes to ecosystem structure and function. This legacy is described as a memory in the form of ecological structure or ecological interactions that remains at a location from a previous condition. We examined how forested floodplain restoration strategy, based on planting intensity, influenced wetland community structure and soil chemical and physical factors after 15 years. The site was divided into 15 strips, and strips were assigned to one of five restoration treatments: plantings of acorns, 2-year-old seedlings, 5-ft bareroot trees, balled and burlapped trees, and natural seed bank regeneration. Our community composition survey revealed that plots planted with bareroot or balled and burlapped trees developed closed tree canopies with little herbaceous understory, while acorn plantings and natural colonization plots developed into dense stands of the invasive species reed canary grass (RCG; 'Phalaris arundinacea'. Restoration strategy influenced bacterial community composition but to a lesser degree compared to the plant community response, and riverine hydrology and restoration strategy influenced wetland soil conditions. Soil ammonium concentrations and pH were similar across all wetland restoration treatments, while total organic carbon was highest in forest and RCG-dominated plots compared to mixed patches of trees and open areas. The differences in restoration strategy and associated economic investment resulted in ecological tradeoffs. The upfront investment in larger, more mature trees (i.e., bareroot, balled and burlapped led to floodplain forested communities, while cheaper, more passive planting strategies (i.e., seedlings, seedbank, or acorns resulted in dense stands of invasive RCG, despite the similar floodplain hydrology across all sites. Therefore, recovery of multiple ecosystem services that