Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Interactive effects of anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Climate change and Nr from anthropogenic activities are causing some of the most rapid changes in biodiversity in recent times. Climate change is causing warming trends that result in poleward and elevational range shiftsof flora and fauna, and changes in phenology, particularly ...

Attenuating initial beliefs: increasing the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change information by reflecting on values.

Science.gov (United States)

van Prooijen, Anne-Marie; Sparks, Paul

2014-05-01

Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self-affirmation via reflection on personally important values could attenuate the impact of initial beliefs on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change evidence. Our findings showed that initial beliefs about the human impact on ecological stability influenced the acceptance of information only among nonaffirmed participants. Self-affirmed participants who were initially resistant toward the information showed stronger beliefs in the existence of climate change risks and greater acknowledgment that individual efficacy has a role to play in reducing climate change risks than did their nonaffirmed counterparts. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Barton, Andrew D; Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Stock, Charles A

2016-03-15

Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951-2000) and future (2051-2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec(-1)), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec(-1) The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul John Beggs

Full Text Available The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, Jr, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (USA). Inst. for Environmental Studies, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

1992-01-24

Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square metre, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes. 73 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.

Science.gov (United States)

Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J

1992-01-24

Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

Science.gov (United States)

Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

2007-01-01

Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

Anthropogenic Climate Change in Undergraduate Marine and Environmental Science Programs in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Vlietstra, Lucy S.; Mrakovcich, Karina L.; Futch, Victoria C.; Stutzman, Brooke S.

2016-01-01

To develop a context for program-level design decisions pertaining to anthropogenic climate change, the authors studied the prevalence of courses focused on human-induced climate change in undergraduate marine science and environmental science degree programs in the United States. Of the 86 institutions and 125 programs the authors examined, 37%…

The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vallis, Geoffrey K. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

2015-01-30

The project had two main components. The first concerns estimating the climate sensitivity in the presence of forcing uncertainty and natural variability. Climate sensitivity is the increase in the average surface temperature for a given increase in greenhouse gases, for example a doubling of carbon dioxide. We have provided new, probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity using a simple climate model an the observed warming in the 20th century, in conjunction with ideas in data assimilation and parameter estimation developed in the engineering community. The estimates combine the uncertainty in the anthropogenic aerosols with the uncertainty arising because of natural variability. The second component concerns how the atmospheric circulation itself might change with anthropogenic global warming. We have shown that GCMs robustly predict an increase in the length scale of eddies, and we have also explored the dynamical mechanisms whereby there might be a shift in the latitude of the jet stream associated with anthropogenic warming. Such shifts in the jet might cause large changes in regional climate, potentially larger than the globally-averaged signal itself. We have also shown that the tropopause robustly increases in height with global warming, and that the Hadley Cell expands, and that the expansion of the Hadley Cell is correlated with the polewards movement of the mid-latitude jet.

Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Midgley, Guy F.; Bond, William J.

2015-09-01

Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.

University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry

Science.gov (United States)

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2017-01-01

This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching.…

Simple but accurate GCM-free approach for quantifying anthropogenic climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, S.

2014-12-01

We are so used to analysing the climate with the help of giant computer models (GCM's) that it is easy to get the impression that they are indispensable. Yet anthropogenic warming is so large (roughly 0.9oC) that it turns out that it is straightforward to quantify it with more empirically based methodologies that can be readily understood by the layperson. The key is to use the CO2 forcing as a linear surrogate for all the anthropogenic effects from 1880 to the present (implicitly including all effects due to Greenhouse Gases, aerosols and land use changes). To a good approximation, double the economic activity, double the effects. The relationship between the forcing and global mean temperature is extremely linear as can be seen graphically and understood without fancy statistics, [Lovejoy, 2014a] (see the attached figure and http://www.physics.mcgill.ca/~gang/Lovejoy.htm). To an excellent approximation, the deviations from the linear forcing - temperature relation can be interpreted as the natural variability. For example, this direct - yet accurate approach makes it graphically obvious that the "pause" or "hiatus" in the warming since 1998 is simply a natural cooling event that has roughly offset the anthropogenic warming [Lovejoy, 2014b]. Rather than trying to prove that the warming is anthropogenic, with a little extra work (and some nonlinear geophysics theory and pre-industrial multiproxies) we can disprove the competing theory that it is natural. This approach leads to the estimate that the probability of the industrial scale warming being a giant natural fluctuation is ≈0.1%: it can be dismissed. This destroys the last climate skeptic argument - that the models are wrong and the warming is natural. It finally allows for a closure of the debate. In this talk we argue that this new, direct, simple, intuitive approach provides an indispensable tool for communicating - and convincing - the public of both the reality and the amplitude of anthropogenic warming

Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Han-Li; Marsh, Daniel R.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Qian, Liying; Vitt, Francis M.

2018-02-01

We simulated anthropogenic global change through the entire atmosphere, including the thermosphere and ionosphere, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended. The basic result was that even as the lower atmosphere gradually warms, the upper atmosphere rapidly cools. The simulations employed constant low solar activity conditions, to remove the effects of variable solar and geomagnetic activity. Global mean annual mean temperature increased at a rate of +0.2 K/decade at the surface and +0.4 K/decade in the upper troposphere but decreased by about -1 K/decade in the stratosphere-mesosphere and -2.8 K/decade in the thermosphere. Near the mesopause, temperature decreases were small compared to the interannual variation, so trends in that region are uncertain. Results were similar to previous modeling confined to specific atmospheric levels and compared favorably with available measurements. These simulations demonstrate the ability of a single comprehensive numerical model to characterize global change throughout the atmosphere.

Middle School Students' Understandings About Anthropogenic Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Golden, B. W.

2013-12-01

they discussed the validation of their beliefs. That is, we argue that the unit, and the emphases contained within the unit, resulted in the "epistemic scaffolding" of their ideas, to the extent that they shifted from arguing from anecdotes to arguing based on other types of data, especially from line graphs. Additionally, we found that students' understandings of climate change were tied to their ontological constructions of the subject matter, i.e., many perceived climate change as just another environmentally sensitive issue such as littering and pollution, and were therefore limited in their ability to understand anthropogenic climate change in the vast and robust sense meant by current scientific consensus. Given these known difficulties, it is critical to explore further research of this sort in order to better understand what students are actually thinking, and how that thinking is prone to change, modification, or not. Subsequently, K-12 strategies might be better designed, if that is indeed a priority of US/Western society.

Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models

KAUST Repository

Imbers, J.; Lopez, A.; Huntingford, C.; Allen, M. R.

2013-01-01

This paper aims to test the robustness of the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change using four different empirical models that were previously developed to explain the observed global mean temperature changes over the last few decades. These studies postulated that the main drivers of these changes included not only the usual natural forcings, such as solar and volcanic, and anthropogenic forcings, such as greenhouse gases and sulfates, but also other known Earth system oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In this paper, we consider these signals, or forced responses, and test whether or not the anthropogenic signal can be robustly detected under different assumptions for the internal variability of the climate system. We assume that the internal variability of the global mean surface temperature can be described by simple stochastic models that explore a wide range of plausible temporal autocorrelations, ranging from short memory processes exemplified by an AR(1) model to long memory processes, represented by a fractional differenced model. In all instances, we conclude that human-induced changes to atmospheric gas composition is affecting global mean surface temperature changes. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models

KAUST Repository

Imbers, J.

2013-04-27

This paper aims to test the robustness of the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change using four different empirical models that were previously developed to explain the observed global mean temperature changes over the last few decades. These studies postulated that the main drivers of these changes included not only the usual natural forcings, such as solar and volcanic, and anthropogenic forcings, such as greenhouse gases and sulfates, but also other known Earth system oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In this paper, we consider these signals, or forced responses, and test whether or not the anthropogenic signal can be robustly detected under different assumptions for the internal variability of the climate system. We assume that the internal variability of the global mean surface temperature can be described by simple stochastic models that explore a wide range of plausible temporal autocorrelations, ranging from short memory processes exemplified by an AR(1) model to long memory processes, represented by a fractional differenced model. In all instances, we conclude that human-induced changes to atmospheric gas composition is affecting global mean surface temperature changes. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, B.; Liou, K. N.; He, C.; Lee, W. L.; Gu, Y.; Li, Q.; Leung, L. R.

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic aerosols affect regional climate significantly through radiative (direct and semi-direct) and indirect effects, but the magnitude of these effects over megacities are subject to large uncertainty. In this study, we evaluated the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China using the online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry Model (WRF/Chem) with the Fu-Liou-Gu radiation scheme and a spatial resolution of 4km. We further updated this radiation scheme with a geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) approach for the computation of light absorption and scattering by black carbon (BC) particles in which aggregation shape and internal mixing properties are accounted for. In addition, we incorporated in WRF/Chem a 3D radiative transfer parameterization in conjunction with high-resolution digital data for city buildings and landscape to improve the simulation of boundary-layer, surface solar fluxes and associated sensible/latent heat fluxes. Preliminary simulated meteorological parameters, fine particles (PM2.5) and their chemical components agree well with observational data in terms of both magnitude and spatio-temporal variations. The effects of anthropogenic aerosols, including BC, on radiative forcing, surface temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud water path, and precipitation are quantified on the basis of simulation results. With several preliminary sensitivity runs, we found that meteorological parameters and aerosol radiative effects simulated with the incorporation of improved BC absorption and 3-D radiation parameterizations deviate substantially from simulation results using the conventional homogeneous/core-shell configuration for BC and the plane-parallel model for radiative transfer. Understanding of the aerosol effects on regional climate change over megacities must consider the complex shape and mixing state of aerosol aggregates and 3D radiative transfer effects over city landscape.

Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Raquel A; West, J Jason; Zhang Yuqiang; Anenberg, Susan C; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T; Faluvegi, Greg; Collins, William J; Dalsoren, Stig; Skeie, Ragnhild; Folberth, Gerd; Rumbold, Steven; Horowitz, Larry W; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene

2013-01-01

Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM 2.5 -related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr −1 due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM 2.5 . The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality. (letter)

Analysis of the Contribution Rate of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity to Runoff Variation in Nenjiang Basin, China

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Liqin Dong

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The Pettitt abrupt change test method based on ArcGIS was used to undertake change-point analysis on climatic (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration; 39 meteorological stations and runoff data (27 hydrological stations from 1954–2015 in the Nenjiang basin. The hydrological sensitivity analysis method was also used to calculate the influential component of climate change upstream, mid-stream, and downstream of the Nenjiang basin, as well as the effect of anthropogenic activities on runoff. Our results show that the upstream area has the highest contribution rate of climate change, followed by the mid-stream area; the downstream area has the lowest contribution rate. Studying climate change contribution rates in various sites in the Nenjiang basin, in addition to anthropogenic activities affecting runoff, can provide the foundation for the protection and utilization of basin water resources, as well as the conservation and restoration of wetlands.

Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crompton, Ryan P; McAneney, K John; Pielke, Roger A Jr

2011-01-01

Recent reviews have concluded that efforts to date have yet to detect or attribute an anthropogenic climate change influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone (of at least tropical storm strength) behaviour and concomitant damage. However, the possibility of identifying such influence in the future cannot be ruled out. Using projections of future tropical cyclone activity from a recent prominent study we estimate the time that it would take for anthropogenic signals to emerge in a time series of normalized US tropical cyclone losses. Depending on the global climate model(s) underpinning the projection, emergence timescales range between 120 and 550 years, reflecting a large uncertainty. It takes 260 years for an 18-model ensemble-based signal to emerge. Consequently, under the projections examined here, the detection or attribution of an anthropogenic signal in tropical cyclone loss data is extremely unlikely to occur over periods of several decades (and even longer). This caution extends more generally to global weather-related natural disaster losses.

Analysis and detection of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thejll, P.; Stendel, M.

2001-01-01

The authors first discuss the concepts 'climate' and 'climate change detection', outlining the difficulties of the latter in terms of the properties of the former. In more detail they then discuss the analysis and detection, carried out at the Danish Climate Centre, of anthropogenic climate change and the nonanthropogenic changes regarding anthropogenic climate change the emphasis is on the improvement of global and regional climate models, and the reconstruction of past climates regarding non-anthropogenic changes the authors describe two case studies of potential solar influence on climate. (LN)

Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China

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Nian-Zhi Jiao

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The ecosystems of China seas and coasts are undergoing rapid changes under the strong influences of both global climate change and anthropogenic activities. To understand the scope of these changes and the mechanisms behind them is of paramount importance for the sustainable development of China, and for the establishment of national policies on environment protection and climate change mitigation. Here we provide a brief review of the impacts of global climate change and human activities on the oceans in general, and on the ecosystems of China seas and coasts in particular. More importantly, we discuss the challenges we are facing and propose several research foci for China seas/coasts ecosystem studies, including long-term time series observations on multiple scales, facilities for simulation study, blue carbon, coastal ecological security, prediction of ecosystem evolution and ecosystem-based management. We also establish a link to the Future Earth program from the perspectives of two newly formed national alliances, the China Future Ocean Alliance and the Pan-China Ocean Carbon Alliance.

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system

Science.gov (United States)

Zeigler, Sara; Catlin, Daniel H.; Bomberger Brown, M.; Fraser, J.D.; Dinan, Lauren R.; Hunt, Kelsi L.; Jorgensen, Joel G.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

2017-01-01

Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval ~ 20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the

Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

2016-01-01

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael L Mann

Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

Uncertainty and Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Berliner, L. Mark

2003-01-01

Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

Climatic changes and anthropogenic pollution as evidenced by two Alpine lacustrine records, Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

Thevenon, Florian; Poté, John; Guédron, Stéphane; Adatte, Thierry; Chiaradia, Massimo; Loizeau, Jean-Luc; Spangenberg, Jorge; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

2010-05-01

This study aims to provide high-resolution records of climatic changes and human impacts on two different Alpine environments: Lake Lucerne is a large (114 km2) lake located at 434 m asl in Central Switzerland, whereas Meidsee is a small (industrial history and the last millennia were sampled with a resolution of 1 cm, and investigated for organic (13δC, 15δN, C/N) and/or inorganic (δ13C, δ18O) matter contents, and elemental composition (REE compositions, trace elements, and heavy metals). Both sites exhibit 1) rapid hydrological changes related to variations in winter precipitations, and 2) increases in atmospheric pollution due to human activities. Lead enrichment factors combined to changes in lead isotopic composition (206Pb/207Pb ratio) are used to distinguish natural from anthropogenic sources. The greatest mercury and lead atmospheric emissions occurred during the twentieth century, resulting from the extensive combustion of fossil coal and petroleum in Europe. Although the highest heavy metals fluxes are synchronous with major anthropogenic changes (e.g. Roman mining, industrial revolution), proxies show that in absence of such events, the heavy metals deposition in the sedimentary records is primarily influenced by sedimentological processes linked to climate variations (i.e. runoff and erosion processes).

A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Wittig, Rüdiger; König, Konstantin; Schmidt, Marco; Szarzynski, Jörg

2007-05-01

During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the

Urban Cholera and Water Sustainability Challenges under Climatic and Anthropogenic Change

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Faruque, A. G.; Colwell, R. R.

2013-12-01

The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city of the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the developing world, especially those located in coastal regions of the tropics remain vulnerable to similar. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with changes in related climatic, environmental, or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or societal factors: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera incidence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend seem to be more epidemic in nature. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements that have negligible to poor water and sanitation systems compounded by increasing frequency of record flood events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of spring outbreaks, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the region.

The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

Science.gov (United States)

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2016-01-01

A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models,…

Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Y

2018-08-15

The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km 2 between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km 2 /yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area

Attenuating initial beliefs: Increasing the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change information by reflecting on values

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Prooijen, A.M.; Sparks, P.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self-affirmation via reflection on personally important values

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

2017-01-01

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Archer

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Methane frozen into hydrate makes up a large reservoir of potentially volatile carbon below the sea floor and associated with permafrost soils. This reservoir intuitively seems precarious, because hydrate ice floats in water, and melts at Earth surface conditions. The hydrate reservoir is so large that if 10% of the methane were released to the atmosphere within a few years, it would have an impact on the Earth's radiation budget equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric CO₂.

Hydrates are releasing methane to the atmosphere today in response to anthropogenic warming, for example along the Arctic coastline of Siberia. However most of the hydrates are located at depths in soils and ocean sediments where anthropogenic warming and any possible methane release will take place over time scales of millennia. Individual catastrophic releases like landslides and pockmark explosions are too small to reach a sizable fraction of the hydrates. The carbon isotopic excursion at the end of the Paleocene has been interpreted as the release of thousands of Gton C, possibly from hydrates, but the time scale of the release appears to have been thousands of years, chronic rather than catastrophic.

The potential climate impact in the coming century from hydrate methane release is speculative but could be comparable to climate feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere and from peat, significant but not catastrophic. On geologic timescales, it is conceivable that hydrates could release as much carbon to the atmosphere/ocean system as we do by fossil fuel combustion.

Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, K. [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, PA (United States); Hall, M. [Brookings Institution, Washington, DC (United States); Kim, Seung-Rae [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Bradford, D.F. [Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Oppenheimer, M. [Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Robertson Hall 448, Princeton, NJ, 08544 (United States)

2005-12-01

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the avoidance of 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system'. Among the many plausible choices, dangerous interference with the climate system may be interpreted as anthropogenic radiative forcing causing distinct and widespread climate change impacts such as a widespread demise of coral reefs or a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The geological record and numerical models suggest that limiting global warming below critical temperature thresholds significantly reduces the likelihood of these eventualities. Here we analyze economically optimal policies that may ensure this risk-reduction. Reducing the risk of a widespread coral reef demise implies drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within decades. Virtually unchecked greenhouse gas emissions to date (combined with the inertia of the coupled natural and human systems) may have already committed future societies to a widespread demise of coral reefs. Policies to reduce the risk of a West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration allow for a smoother decarbonization of the economy within a century and may well increase consumption in the long run.

Natural and anthropogenic climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ko, M.K.W.; Clough, S.A.; Molnar, G.I.; Iacono, M.; Wang, W.C.; State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY

1992-03-01

This report consists of two parts: (1) progress for the period 9/1/91--3/31/92 and (2) the plan for the remaining period 4/1/92--8/31/92. The project includes two tasks: atmospheric radiation and improvement of climate models to evaluate the climatic effects of radiation changes. The atmospheric radiation task includes four subtasks: (1) Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM), (2) analysis of the water vapor continuum using line-by-line calculations to develop a parameterization for use in climate models, (3) parameterization of longwave radiation and (4) climate/radiation interactions of desert aerosols. Our effort in this period is focused on the first three subtasks. The improvement of climate models to evaluate the subtasks: (1) general circulation model study and (2) 2- D model development and application

Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

Science.gov (United States)

King, Andrew D.

2017-11-01

Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record breaking in a given time series is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

Estimation of water storage changes in small endorheic lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (Northern Kazakhstan, Central Asia); the effect of climate change and anthropogenic influences

Science.gov (United States)

Yapiyev, Vadim; Sagintayev, Zhanay; Verhoef, Anne; Samarkhanov, Kanat; Jumassultanova, Saltanat

2017-04-01

Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. It has been observed in recent decades that water-limited steppe regions of Central Asia are among ecosystems found to exhibit enhanced responses to climate variability. In fact, the largest share of worldwide net loss of permanent water extent is geographically concentrated in the Central Asia and Middle East regions attributed to both climate variability/change and human activities impacts. We used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and high resolution Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia, for the period 2000-2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, hydrometeorological network observations as well as regional climate model projections we evaluate the impacts of past thirty years and future climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. The anthropogenic water consumption was estimated based on data collected at a local water supply company and regulation authorities. One the one hand historical in-situ observations and future climate projections do not show a significant change in precipitation in BNNP. On the other hand both observations and the model demonstrate steadily rising air temperatures in the area. It is concluded that the long-term decline in water levels for most of these lakes can be largely attributed to climate change (but only via changes in air temperature, causing evaporation to exceed precipitation) and not to direct anthropogenic influences such as increased water withdrawals. In addition, the two largest lakes, showing the highest historical water level decline, do not have sufficient water drainage basin area to sustain water levels under increased evaporation rates.

Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C.-F.

2018-01-01

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

Climate change experiments in Hamburg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gubasch, U [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

1996-12-31

Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

Climate change experiments in Hamburg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

1995-12-31

Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

Anthropogenic Climate Change and Allergic Diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hueiwang Anna Jeng

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have an impact on various aspects of health, including mucosal areas involved in allergic inflammatory disorders that include asthma, allergic rhinitis, allergic conjunctivitis and anaphylaxis. The evidence that links climate change to the exacerbation and the development of allergic disease is increasing and appears to be linked to changes in pollen seasons (duration, onset and intensity and changes in allergen content of plants and their pollen as it relates to increased sensitization, allergenicity and exacerbations of allergic airway disease. This has significant implications for air quality and for the global food supply.

Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

Anthropogenic Changes in Mid-latitude Storm and Blocking Activities from Observations and Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Li, D.

2017-12-01

Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change can be most readily detected in the high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere, where temperature has been rising faster than the rest of the globe and sea ice cover has shrunk dramatically over recent decades. Reducing the meridional temperature gradient, this amplified warming over the high latitudes influences weather in the middle latitudes by modulating the jet stream, storms, and atmospheric blocking activities. Whether observational records have revealed significant changes in mid-latitude storms and blocking activities, however, has remained a subject of much debate. Buried deep in strong year-to-year variations, the long-term dynamic responses of the atmosphere are more difficult to identify, compared with its thermodynamic responses. Variabilities of decadal and longer timescales further obscure any trends diagnosed from satellite observations, which are often shorter than 40 years. Here, new metrics reflecting storm and blocking activities are developed using surface air temperature and pressure records, and their variations and long-term trends are examined. This approach gives an inkling of the changes in storm and blocking activities since the Industrial Revolution in regions with abundant long-term observational records, e.g. Europe and North America. The relationship between Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and variations in storm and blocking activities across the Atlantic is also scrutinized. The connection between observed centennial trends and anthropogenic forcings is investigated using a hierarchy of numerical tools, from highly idealized to fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Pre-industrial control simulations and a set of large ensemble simulations forced by increased CO2 are analyzed to evaluate the range of natural variabilities, which paves the way to singling out significant anthropogenic changes from observational records, as well as predicting future changes in mid-latitude storm and

Western Pyrenees facing global change: comparison of the effects of climatic and anthropogenic change on water abstractions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terrasson, Isabelle; Chazot, Sebastien; Maton, Laure; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Caballero, Yvan

2014-01-01

In the French Western Pyrenees, the trend to the decrease of low water flows that has been observed during the current years should be going on in the future. This may increase the hydric stress on aquatic ecosystems, and the competition among water uses and users for accessing water resources. The research project ANR-VULCAIN compared the impacts of climatic and socio-economic change on the hydro-systems of the French Western Pyrenees. Modeling and participative prospect analysis have been coupled to quantify the evolution of water abstractions under these two types of change. Socio-economic scenarios have been built together with local stakeholders during workshops (urbanism / land planning on the one hand and agriculture on the other hand). Their results have been quantified with the models developed so as to assess anthropogenic change impacts on domestic and agricultural abstractions. In parallel, the agricultural model has been fed with climatic scenarios so as to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural water needs. In the created scenarios, the evolution of agricultural water needs under climate change have a bigger range than the evolution of abstractions for domestic water and agricultural needs under anthropic change, which are the same order of magnitude. To satisfy this evolution, there are some rooms to maneuver: make distribution modalities more efficient, optimize the management of storage capacity, or use substitution resources. This paper presents the approach that has been followed, and some of the main results. (authors)

Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maurakis, Eugene G

2010-10-01

Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

Dangerous anthropogenic interference, dangerous climatic change, and harmful climatic change. Non-trivial distinctions with significant policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, L.D.D.

2007-01-01

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) in the climate system. However, some of the recent policy literature has focused on dangerous climatic change (DCC) rather than on DAI. DAI is a set of increases in GHGs concentrations that has a non-negligible possibility of provoking changes in climate that in turn have a non-negligible possibility of causing unacceptable harm, including harm to one or more of ecosystems, food production systems, and sustainable socio-economic systems, whereas DCC is a change of climate that has actually occurred or is assumed to occur and that has a non-negligible possibility of causing unacceptable harm. If the goal of climate policy is to prevent DAI, then the determination of allowable GHG concentrations requires three inputs: the probability distribution function (pdf) for climate sensitivity, the pdf for the temperature change at which significant harm occurs, and the allowed probability ('risk') of incurring harm previously deemed to be unacceptable. If the goal of climate policy is to prevent DCC, then one must know what the correct climate sensitivity is (along with the harm pdf and risk tolerance) in order to determine allowable GHG concentrations. DAI from elevated atmospheric CO2 also arises through its impact on ocean chemistry as the ocean absorbs CO2. The primary chemical impact is a reduction in the degree of supersaturation of ocean water with respect to calcium carbonate, the structural building material for coral and for calcareous phytoplankton at the base of the marine food chain. Here, the probability of significant harm (in particular, impacts violating the subsidiary conditions in Article 2 of the UNFCCC) is computed as a function of the ratio of total GHG radiative forcing to the radiative forcing for a CO2 doubling, using two alternative pdfs for

Teaching Anthropogenic Climate Change through Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Helping Students Think Critically about Science and Ethics in Dialogue

Science.gov (United States)

Todd, Claire; O'Brien, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a complicated issue involving scientific data and analyses as well as political, economic, and ethical issues. In order to capture this complexity, we developed an interdisciplinary student and faculty collaboration by (1) offering introductory lectures on scientific and ethical methods to two classes, (2) assigning…

University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry

Science.gov (United States)

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2017-01-01

This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching. This review identifies both the strengths and weaknesses of each of these case studies. It is the first to go beyond examining the impact of specific inquiry instructional approaches to offer a synthesis of cases. We find that inquiry teaching can succeed by concretising scientific processes, providing access to global data and evidence, imparting critical and higher order thinking about AGCC science policy and contextualising learning with places and scientific facts. We recommend educational researchers and scientists collaborate to create and refine curricula that utilise geospatial technologies, climate models and communication technologies to bring students into contact with scientists, climate data and authentic AGCC research processes. Many available science education technologies and curricula also require further research to maximise trade-offs between implementation and training costs and their educational value.

Climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

2013-01-01

In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

Fishers’ local knowledge on impact of climate change and anthropogenic interferences on Hilsa fishery in South Asia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jahan, Israt; Ahsan, Dewan; Farque, Md Hasan

2017-01-01

fishers’ perceptions on effect of climate change and anthropogenic impact on Hilsa fishery at lower Meghna. Fishers’ ecological knowledge indicates that the stock of Hilsa is declining due to several adverse climatic conditions such as increased water temperature, salinity intrusion and low freshwater....... The study also indicates that the major constraints to adopt with the change situation are low level of human capital and restricted access to the formal credit system. Therefore, incorporation of local knowledge in governmental policy formulation and public support to improve human skill are essential...

Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions: Unknowns and uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.; Idso, S.; Kondratyev, K. Ya.; Posmentier, E. S.

2001-12-01

A likelihood of disastrous global environmental consequences has been surmised as a result of projected increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These estimates are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy despite recent, substantial strides in knowledge. Because the expected anthropogenic climate forcings are relatively small compared to other background and forcing factors (internal and external), the credibility of the modeled global and regional responses rests on the validity of the models. We focus on this important question of climate model validation. Specifically, we review common deficiencies in general circulation model calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. These deficiencies arise from complex problems associated with parameterization of multiply-interacting climate components, forcings and feedbacks, involving especially clouds and oceans. We also review examples of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, including the relatively well-observed latest 20 years, is not possible. We further conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future climate projections from incomplete or unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic value of models. Such uncritical application of climate models has led to the commonly-held but erroneous impression that modeling has proven or substantiated the hypothesis that CO2 added to the air has caused or will cause significant global warming. An assessment of the positive skills of GCMs and their use in suggesting a discernible human influence on global climate can be found in the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations

Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paerl, Hans W.; Hall, Nathan S.; Calandrino, Elizabeth S.

2011-01-01

Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N 2 ) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N 2 fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change. - Research Highlights: → Toxic cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten global water supplies. → Human (nutrient) and climate (hydrology, temperature) changes synergistically promote CyanoHABs. → CyanoHAB control

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

2011-07-19

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on present and future climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deandreis, C.

2008-03-01

Aerosols influence the Earth radiative budget both through their direct effect (scattering and absorption of solar radiation) and their indirect effect (impacts on cloud microphysics). The role of anthropogenic aerosol in climate change has been recognized to be significant when compared to the one of greenhouse gases. Despite many studies on this topic, the assessments of both anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and their impacts on meteorological variables are still very uncertain. Major reasons for these uncertainties stem from the insufficient knowledge of the emissions sources and of the processes of formation, transformation and deposition. Models used to study climate are often inadequate to study aerosol processes because of coarse spatial and temporal scales. Uncertainties due to the parameterization of the aerosol are added to the uncertainties in the representation of large scale dynamics and physical processes such as transport, hydrological cycle and radiative budget. To predict, the role of the anthropogenic aerosol impact in the future climate change, I have addressed some of these key uncertainties. In this study, I simulate interactively aerosols processes in a climate model in order to improve the estimation of their direct and indirect effects. I estimate a modification of the top of the atmosphere net flux of 60% for the present period. I also show that, for future projection, the representation of the emissions source is an other important source of error. I assess that aerosols radiative forcing differ by 40% between simulations performed with 2 different emissions inventories. These inventories are representative for a high and a low limit in term of carbonaceous aerosols emissions for the 2050 horizon. (author)

Detecting the anthropogenic influences on recent changes in ocean carbon uptake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seferian, Roland; Ribes, Aurelien; Bopp, Laurent

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have modified the rate at which oceans have absorbed atmospheric CO 2 over the last centuries through rising atmospheric CO 2 and modifications in climate. However, there are still missing pieces in our understanding of the recent evolution of air-sea CO 2 exchanges related to the magnitude of their response to anthropogenic forcing versus that controlled by the internal variability. Here, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on oceanic CO 2 uptake between 1960 and 2005, we compare an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations forced by individual drivers to ocean-only model reconstructions. We demonstrate that the evolution of the global oceanic carbon sink over the last decades can be understood without invoking climate change, attributing rising atmospheric CO 2 as prominent driver of the oceanic sink. Nonetheless, at regional scale, the influence of climate change on air-sea CO 2 exchanges seems to emerge from the internal variability within the low-latitude oceans. (authors)

Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paerl, Hans W., E-mail: hpaerl@email.unc.edu; Hall, Nathan S.; Calandrino, Elizabeth S.

2011-04-15

Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N{sub 2}) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N{sub 2} fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change. - Research Highlights: {yields} Toxic cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten global water supplies. {yields} Human (nutrient) and climate (hydrology, temperature) changes synergistically promote CyanoHABs. {yields

An overview of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masson-Delmotte, V.; Paillard, D.

2004-01-01

We describe briefly here the main mechanisms and time scales involved in natural and anthropogenic climate variability, based on quantitative paleo-climatic reconstructions from natural archives and climate model simulations: the large glacial-interglacial cycles of the last million years (the Quaternary), lasting typically a hundred thousand years, triggered by changes in the solar radiation received by the Earth due to its position around the Sun; the century-long climatic changes occurring during last glacial period and triggered by recurrent iceberg discharges of the large northern hemisphere ice caps, massive freshwater flux to the north Atlantic, and changes in the ocean heat transport. We show the strong coupling between past climatic changes and global biogeochemical cycles, namely here atmospheric greenhouse gases. We also discuss the decadal climatic fluctuations during the last thousand years, showing an unprecedented warming attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We show the range of atmospheric greenhouse concentrations forecasted for the end of the 21. century and the climate model predictions for global temperature changes during the 21. century. We also discuss the possible climatic changes at longer time scales involving the possibility of north Atlantic heat transport collapse (possibility of abrupt climate change), and the duration of the current interglacial period. (author)

Anthropogenic climate change and allergen exposure: The role of plant biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Ziska, Lewis H; Beggs, Paul J

2012-01-01

Accumulation of anthropogenic gases, particularly CO(2), is likely to have 2 fundamental effects on plant biology. The first is an indirect effect through Earth's increasing average surface temperatures, with subsequent effects on other aspects of climate, such as rainfall and extreme weather events. The second is a direct effect caused by CO(2)-induced stimulation of photosynthesis and plant growth. Both effects are likely to alter a number of fundamental aspects of plant biology and human health, including aerobiology and allergic diseases, respectively. This review highlights the current and projected effect of increasing CO(2) and climate change in the context of plants and allergen exposure, emphasizing direct effects on plant physiologic parameters (eg, pollen production) and indirect effects (eg, fungal sporulation) related to diverse biotic and abiotic interactions. Overall, the review assumes that future global mitigation efforts will be limited and suggests a number of key research areas that will assist in adapting to the ongoing challenges to public health associated with increased allergen exposure. Published by Mosby, Inc.

Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Höök, Mikael; Tang, Xu

2013-01-01

Future scenarios with significant anthropogenic climate change also display large increases in world production of fossil fuels, the principal CO 2 emission source. Meanwhile, fossil fuel depletion has also been identified as a future challenge. This chapter reviews the connection between these two issues and concludes that limits to availability of fossil fuels will set a limit for mankind's ability to affect the climate. However, this limit is unclear as various studies have reached quite different conclusions regarding future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations caused by fossil fuel limitations. It is concluded that the current set of emission scenarios used by the IPCC and others is perforated by optimistic expectations on future fossil fuel production that are improbable or even unrealistic. The current situation, where climate models largely rely on emission scenarios detached from the reality of supply and its inherent problems are problematic. In fact, it may even mislead planners and politicians into making decisions that mitigate one problem but make the other one worse. It is important to understand that the fossil energy problem and the anthropogenic climate change problem are tightly connected and need to be treated as two interwoven challenges necessitating a holistic solution. - Highlights: ► Review of the development of emission scenarios. ► Survey of future fossil fuel trajectories used by the IPCC emission scenarios. ► Discussions on energy transitions in the light of oil depletion. ► Review of earlier studies of future climate change and fossil fuel limitations.

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

2017-03-27

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

Climate change: Factors and forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, W.R.

1990-01-01

An overview is presented of global climatic change. The greenhouse effect is an established physical phenomena. The reradiative effects of various anthropogenic gases are scientifically demonstrable, and the increasing concentration of such gases in the atmosphere is irrefutable. The delinquent information is the magnitude of the agravated greenhouse effect (AGE)-induced climatic change, the temporal pace of the change and its spatial distribution. The pace of the climatic change implied by many of the general circulation model (GCM) estimates is for a northern hemispheric warming 10-50 times faster than the change since the last ice age. At a relatively aggregated representation, researching the impact of climate change involves estimating energy use and greenhouse gas atmospheric retention, climate modeling and socio-economic impact models. Recognizing that certain of the impacts of anthropogenic gasses will prove to be cumulative, non-reversible and synergistic, it would be prudent to examine mitigating options for immediate implementation. Given the current degree of scientific uncertainty, response priorities would be on the no-regrets or covering-the-bets options. 14 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.

Climate change. Scientific background and process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alfsen, Knut H; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

1999-07-01

The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Vezér, Martin A

2016-04-01

To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley's (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd's (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and Finland. Summary of the Finnish research programme on climate change (SILMU)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-12-31

Anthropogenic impacts on the Earth`s atmosphere are expected to cause significant global climate changes during the next few decades. These changes will have many consequences both in nature and on human activities. In order to investigate the implications of such changes in Finland, a six-year multidisciplinary national research programme on climate and global change, the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), was initiated in 1990. The key research areas were: (1) quantification of the greenhouse effect and the magnitude of anticipated climate changes, (2) assessment of the effects of changing climate on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and (3) development of mitigation and adaptation strategies

Climate change and Finland. Summary of the Finnish research programme on climate change (SILMU)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

Anthropogenic impacts on the Earth's atmosphere are expected to cause significant global climate changes during the next few decades. These changes will have many consequences both in nature and on human activities. In order to investigate the implications of such changes in Finland, a six-year multidisciplinary national research programme on climate and global change, the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), was initiated in 1990. The key research areas were: (1) quantification of the greenhouse effect and the magnitude of anticipated climate changes, (2) assessment of the effects of changing climate on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and (3) development of mitigation and adaptation strategies

Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Wetland and Agriculture in the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hao Chen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Influences of the increasing pressure of climate change and anthropogenic activities on wetlands ecosystems and agriculture are significant around the world. This paper assessed the spatiotemporal land use and land cover changes (LULCC, especially for conversion from marshland to other LULC types (e.g., croplands over the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain (SNP and SJP, northeast China, during the past 35 years (1980–2015. The relative role of human activities and climatic changes in terms of their impacts on wetlands and agriculture dynamics were quantitatively distinguished and evaluated in different periods based on a seven-stage LULC dataset. Our results indicated that human activities, such as population expansion and socioeconomic development, and institutional policies related to wetlands and agriculture were the main driving forces for LULCC of the SJP and SNP during the past decades, while increasing contributions of climatic changes were also found. Furthermore, as few studies have identified which geographic regions are most at risk, how the future climate changes will spatially and temporally impact wetlands and agriculture, i.e., the suitability of wetlands and agriculture distributions under different future climate change scenarios, were predicted and analyzed using a habitat distribution model (Maxent at the pixel-scale. The present findings can provide valuable references for policy makers on regional sustainability for food security, water resource rational management, agricultural planning and wetland protection as well as restoration of the region.

Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

Science.gov (United States)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2009-12-01

In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

Testing For The Linearity of Responses To Multiple Anthropogenic Climate Forcings

Science.gov (United States)

Forest, C. E.; Stone, P. H.; Sokolov, A. P.

To test whether climate forcings are additive, we compare climate model simulations in which anthropogenic forcings are applied individually and in combination. Tests are performed with different values for climate system properties (climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean) as well as for different strengths of the net aerosol forcing, thereby testing for the dependence of linearity on these properties. The MIT 2D Land-Ocean Climate Model used in this study consists of a zonally aver- aged statistical-dynamical atmospheric model coupled to a mixed-layer Q-flux ocean model, with heat anomalies diffused into the deep ocean. Following our previous stud- ies, the anthropogenic forcings are the changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases (1860-1995), sulfate aerosol (1860-1995), and stratospheric and tropospheric ozone (1979-1995). The sulfate aerosol forcing is applied as a surface albedo change. For an aerosol forcing of -1.0 W/m2 and an effective ocean diffusitivity of 2.5 cm2/s, the nonlinearity of the response of global-mean surface temperatures to the combined forcing shows a strong dependence on climate sensitivity. The fractional change in decadal averages ([(TG + TS + TO) - TGSO]/TGSO) for the 1986-1995 period compared to pre-industrial times are 0.43, 0.90, and 1.08 with climate sensitiv- ities of 3.0, 4.5, and 6.2 C, respectively. The values of TGSO for these three cases o are 0.52, 0.62, and 0.76 C. The dependence of linearity on climate system properties, o the role of climate system feedbacks, and the implications for the detection of climate system's response to individual forcings will be presented. Details of the model and forcings can be found at http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/.

Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers joint construction of climate perceptions

OpenAIRE

Asplund, Therese

2016-01-01

While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relat...

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

2011-01-01

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between...... climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...

Application of Satellite Remote Sensing to Identify Climatic and Anthropogenic Changes Related to Water and Health Conditions in Emerging Megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, A. S.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.

2014-12-01

By 2050, more than 70% of the world's population is expected to be living in a city. In many of the urbanizing regions in Asia and Africa, most new development is taking place without adequate urban or regional planning, and a majority population is crowded into densely populated unplanned settlements, also known as slums. During the same period, precipitation and temperature patterns are likely to see significant changes in many of these regions while coastal megacities will have to accommodate sea-level rise in their ecosystems. The rapid increase in population is usually observed in fringes of the urban sprawl without adequate water or sanitation facilities or access to other municipal amenities (such as utilities, healthcare, and education). Collectively, these issues make the ever increasing slum dwellers in emerging megacities significantly vulnerable to a combination of climatic and anthropogenic threats. However, how the growth of unplanned urban and peri-urban sprawl and simultaneous change in climatic patterns have impacted public health in the emerging megacities remain largely unexplored due to lack of readily available and usable data. We employ a number of Remote Sensing products (GRACE, LANDSAT, MODIS) to bridge above knowledge gaps and to identify relevant hydrologic and anthropogenic changes in emerging megacities that are most vulnerable due to the climate-water-health nexus. We explore one of the largest and the fastest growing megacities in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh - on identifying and investigating the changes in the water environment and growth of slum areas, and impact on water services and health outcomes. The hydroclimatology of South Asia is highly seasonal and the asymmetric availability of water affects vast areas of Bangladesh differently in space and time, exposing the population of Dhaka region to both droughts and floods and periodic spring-fall outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera and rotavirus. This research

Influence of lag effect, soil release, and climate change on watershed anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine export dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Dingjiang; Huang, Hong; Hu, Minpeng; Dahlgren, Randy A

2014-05-20

This study demonstrates the importance of the nitrogen-leaching lag effect, soil nitrogen release, and climate change on anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and riverine total nitrogen (TN) export dynamics using a 30-yr record for the Yongan River watershed in eastern China. Cross-correlation analysis indicated a 7-yr, 5-yr, and 4-yr lag time in riverine TN export in response to changes in NANI, temperature, and drained agricultural land area, respectively. Enhanced by warmer temperature and improved agricultural drainage, the upper 20 cm of agricultural soils released 270 kg N ha(-1) between 1980 and 2009. Climate change also increased the fractional export of NANI to river. An empirical model (R(2) = 0.96) for annual riverine TN flux incorporating these influencing factors estimated 35%, 41%, and 24% of riverine TN flux originated from the soil N pool, NANI, and background N sources, respectively. The model forecasted an increase of 45%, 25%, and 6% and a decrease of 13% in riverine TN flux from 2010 to 2030 under continued development, climate change, status-quo, and tackling scenarios, respectively. The lag effect, soil N release, and climate change delay riverine TN export reductions with respect to decreases in NANI and should be considered in developing and evaluating N management measures.

Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs—historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faurby, Søren; King, Tim L.; Obst, Matthias

2010-01-01

with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species’ distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes....... This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics—a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest....

How does climate change cause extinction?

Science.gov (United States)

Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

2013-01-07

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.

Science.gov (United States)

Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F

2003-10-17

Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

Climate change: Scientific background and process

OpenAIRE

Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

2000-01-01

The paper gives a brief description of natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past together with a brief synopsis likely future impacts of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. The paper also gives a briefing on the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

A possible indication of anthropogenic climate change in the wave climate in the central North Sea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pfizenmayer, A.; Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

2000-07-01

In the central North Sea we observe an increase in the frequency of eastward propagating waves in the recent four decades. To assess the significance of this change the wave statistic for this century was reconstructed with a statistical model. With a linear multivariate technique (redundancy analysis) monthly mean air pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Western Europe were downscaled on the intramonthly frequency of directional wave propagation. When compared against this reference, the recent change appears significant at the 5% level. In order to investigate the reason for this local climatic change, reconstruction was compared with the downscaled results of a transient GCM scenario (ECHAMA-OPYC3) and with results obtained in a high resolution time slice experiment with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Both estimates are qualitatively consistent with the changes observed in the last decades. We suggest that the recent increase of eastward propagation is a local manifestation of anthropogenic global climate change. (orig.) [German] In den letzten Jahrzehnten konnte in der zentralen Nordsee eine Zunahme der Haeufigkeit ostwaerts laufender Wellen beobachtet werden. Mit Hilfe eines statistischen Modells wurde die Wellenstatistik des 20. Jahrhunderts rekonstruiert. Der monatliche mittlere Bodenluftdruck ueber dem Nordatlantik und Westeuropa wurde mit einer linearen multivariaten Technik auf die monatliche Verteilung der Wellenrichtungen regionalisiert. Der Vergleich der juengsten Aenderungen mit dem gesamten Jahrhundert zeigt, dass diese Aenderung im Wellenklima signifikant ist (5-%-Grenze). Zur Untersuchung der Ursachen dieser Veraenderung wurden diese mit den regionalisierten Ergebnissen aus einem transienten Klimaszenario und einem hochaufgeloesten Zeitscheibenexperiment verglichen. Beide Szenarien produzieren bei ansteigenden Treibhausgasen und Aerosolen eine qualitativ konsistente Aenderung. Die Zunahme der oestlich laufenden

Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamieson, Dale

2010-09-01

In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.

A first look at the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the future delivery of fluvial sediment to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta.

Science.gov (United States)

Darby, Stephen E; Dunn, Frances E; Nicholls, Robert J; Rahman, Munsur; Riddy, Liam

2015-09-01

We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) mega-delta. The model was parameterised using high-quality topographic data and forced with daily temperature and precipitation data obtained from downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the period 1971-2100. Three perturbed RCM model runs were selected to quantify the potential range of future climate conditions associated with the SRES A1B scenario. Fluvial sediment delivery rates to the GBM delta associated with these climate data sets are projected to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, albeit with the magnitude of the increase varying across the two catchments. Of the two study basins, the Brahmaputra's fluvial sediment load is predicted to be more sensitive to future climate change. Specifically, by the middle part of the 21(st) century, our model results suggest that sediment loads increase (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline period) over a range of between 16% and 18% (depending on climate model run) for the Ganges, but by between 25% and 28% for the Brahmaputra. The simulated increase in sediment flux emanating from the two catchments further increases towards the end of the 21(st) century, reaching between 34% and 37% for the Ganges and between 52% and 60% for the Brahmaputra by the 2090s. The variability in these changes across the three climate change simulations is small compared to the changes, suggesting they represent a significant increase. The new data obtained in this study offer the first estimate of whether and how anthropogenic climate change may affect the delivery of fluvial sediment to the GBM delta, informing assessments of the future sustainability and resilience of one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas. Specifically, such significant increases in future sediment loads could increase the resilience

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

2007-01-01

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the

International aspects of climate change: The intergovernmental panel on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brydges, T.; Fenech, A.

1990-01-01

The impact of various international conferences concerning global climate change on international opinions and attitudes is discussed. A number of conferences over the past two decades have drawn attention to the large socio-economic consequences of climate change. There has been increasing attention given to the likely affect of anthropogenically derived greenhouse gases on the global climate. Some early uncertainty over the likely long term changes in global temperature have been replaced by a scientific consensus that global temperatures are increasing and will continue to do so into the next century. Public awareness of the possibility of climate change and severe socio-economic consequences has been increasing and was given a major impetus by the Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere. An estimate of the possible time to solution of the climate change issue is given as 1988-2005, a span of 17 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has focused work into three working groups examining science, impacts and response strategies. 28 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

Are erosion regimes in SE Australian forests responding to anthropogenic climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Nyman, P.; Rutherfurd, I.; Lane, P. N. J.; Sheridan, G. J.

2017-12-01

presentation we outline a conceptual framework for combining such models with data on past debris flow activity to conduct an attribution study into the effect of anthropogenic climate change on erosion regimes in southeast Australian temperate forests.

An inquiry into the relationships among science, policy and the public: the case of anthropogenic climate change; Betrachtung des Verhaeltnisses zwischen Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit am Beispiel der Diskussion um anthropogene Klimaaenderungen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rau, S [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

2001-07-01

This thesis present an analysis of qualitative interviews with experts in the field of climate research in which the relation among science, policy and public is discussed. To begin, an overview of the methods and results of climate science is presented. Following, elements of the discourse among science, policy and public are presented in a manner that demonstrates the different ways to look at the problem of anthropogenic climate change. Subsequently, approaches of the sociology of science are introduced in which science is examined as a social process. Here the question is raised up to what extent climate research has taken a problem oriented perspective in which social and political criteria in the treatment of actual risks of global change are taken into account. The results of the analysis indicate that uncertainties in science led to different perspectives regarding the risks of anthropogenic climate change. In this way scientific knowledge itself becomes problematic. Communication of scientific results to policy and public poses a process which is stamped by individual values and preferences. This suggests the possibility that recognition of theories is increasingly determined by extra scientific criteria like resonance in the media and possibility of connection for political measures. (orig.) [German] In dieser Arbeit wird eine Analyse qualitativer Interviews mit Klimaforschern vorgestellt, in denen das Verhaeltnis von Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit diskutiert wird. In einem ersten Schritt wird ein Ueberblick gegeben ueber Methoden und Ergebnisse der gegenwaertigen Klimaforschung. Anschliessend werden Elemente des Diskurses zwischen Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit dargestellt, die unterschiedliche Selektionsmuster der Problematik um anthropogene Klimaaenderungen verdeutlichen. Hiervon ausgehend werden Ansaetze der Wissenschaftssoziologie vorgestellt, mit denen Wissenschaft als sozialer Prozess analysiert wird. Hierbei wird die Frage

Global climate changes in the past and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schoenwiese, C.D.

1993-01-01

Is man changing the climate of the Earth, and if so, is this at a global scale? This question with all its reunifications, usually referred to under the heading ''greenhouse effect'', deservedly stands in the focus of public attention. Besides fears and warnings reaching even to disaster scenarios there have recently also been sceptical voices pointing out the imponderabilities of filtering anthropogenic effects out of the climate data. This uncertainty is not surprising to the expert, as natural changes of climate always have, and will, superimpose anthropogenic influences. Therefore, it is not enough to peer into the future with the help of intricate climate models. Diagnostic analysis of the past climate is at least just as important. (orig.) [de

Climate effects of anthropogenic sulfate: Simulations from a coupled chemistry/climate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; Taylor, K.E.; Walton, J.J.

1993-09-01

In this paper, we use a more comprehensive approach by coupling a climate model with a 3-D global chemistry model to investigate the forcing by anthropogenic aerosol sulfate. The chemistry model treats the global-scale transport, transformation, and removal of SO 2 , DMS and H 2 SO 4 species in the atmosphere. The mass concentration of anthropogenic sulfate from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning is calculated in the chemistry model and provided to the climate model where it affects the shortwave radiation. We also investigate the effect, with cloud nucleation parameterized in terms of local aerosol number, sulfate mass concentration and updraft velocity. Our simulations indicate that anthropogenic sulfate may result in important increases in reflected solar radiation, which would mask locally the radiative forcing from increased greenhouse gases. Uncertainties in these results will be discussed

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Mahowald

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

Climate Change, Politics and Religion: Australian Churchgoers’ Beliefs about Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miriam Pepper

2016-05-01

Full Text Available A growing literature has sought to understand the relationships between religion, politics and views about climate change and climate change policy in the United States. However, little comparative research has been conducted in other countries. This study draws on data from the 2011 Australian National Church Life Survey to examine the beliefs of Australian churchgoers from some 20 denominations about climate change—whether or not it is real and whether it is caused by humans—and political factors that explain variation in these beliefs. Pentecostals, Baptist and Churches of Christ churchgoers, and people from the smallest Protestant denominations were less likely than other churchgoers to believe in anthropogenic climate change, and voting and hierarchical and individualistic views about society predicted beliefs. There was some evidence that these views function differently in relation to climate change beliefs depending on churchgoers’ degree of opposition to gay rights. These findings are of interest not only for the sake of international comparisons, but also in a context where Australia plays a role in international climate change politics that is disproportionate to its small population.

Emergence of acute/subacute infant-juvenile paracoccidioidomycosis in Northeast Argentina: Effect of climatic and anthropogenic changes?

Science.gov (United States)

Giusiano, Gustavo; Aguirre, Clarisa; Vratnica, Claudia; Rojas, Florencia; Corallo, Teresa; Cattana, María Emilia; Fernández, Mariana; Mussin, Javier; de Los Angeles Sosa, María

2018-01-13

Argentina has two endemic areas of paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM). Bordering Paraguay and Brazil, Northeast Argentina (NEA) comprises the area with the highest incidence where the chronic adult clinical form has historically been reported. Juvenile form in children and adolescents is rare in this area since only one case was reported in the last 10 years. Despite this, between 2010 and 2012, several cases of acute/subacute clinical forms in children aged 10 to 16 (median 12) were detected. In the last decade, the NEA region has been exposed to ecological variations as consequences of certain climatic and anthropogenic changes, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon during 2009, and deforestation. The region has also suffered from the significant ecological effects of the construction of one of the biggest hydroelectric dams of South America. This study aims to describe clinical and epidemiological aspects of acute/subacute PCM cases detected in children from NEA and to discuss climatic and anthropogenic changes as possible contributing factors in the emergence of this disease in children. This acute/subacute PCM cluster was characterized by severe disseminated and aggressive presentations to localized form, with a high spectrum of clinical manifestations uncommonly observed. Due to the lack of experience in acute/subacute PCM in children in the studied area and the atypical clinical manifestations observed, the diagnosis was delayed. In order to avoid misdiagnosis, a higher level of suspicion is now required in NEA and countries bordering the southern part of the endemic area, which are affected by the changes discussed in this article. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The International Society for Human and Animal Mycology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Distinguishing between anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size: a modeling approach using data from Ebinur Lake in arid northwest China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Long Ma

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Evaluation of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size variation is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining societal development. We assumed that climate and human activity are the only drivers of lake-size variation and are independent of each other. We then evaluated anthropogenic and climatic effects on hydrological processes, using a multivariate linear model. Macro-economic data were used to describe the anthropogenic impact on lake surface area in our approach. Ebinur Lake is a shallow, closed, saline lake in arid northwest China; it has shrunk at a rapid rate over the past half century. Using our new method, we explored temporal trends of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on the lake over the past 50 years. Assessment indices indicate that the model represents observed data quite well. Compared with the reference period of 1955-1960, impacts of climate change across the catchment were generally positive with respect to lake area, except for the period from 1961 to 1970. Human activity was responsible for a reduction in lake surface area of 286.8 km2 over the last 50 years. Our approach, which uses economic variables to describe the anthropogenic impact on lake surface area, enables us to explain the lake responses to climate change and human activities quantitatively.

Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

2012-08-15

Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

Responses of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change: Results from an earth system climate model simulation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WANG Shuang-Jing; CAO Long; LI Na

2014-01-01

Based on simulations using the University of Victoria’s Earth System Climate Model, we analyzed the responses of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change from 1800 to 2500 following the RCP 8.5 scenario and its extension. Compared to simulations without climate change, the simulation with a climate sensitivity of 3.0 K shows that in 2100, due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated sea surface temperature increases by 2.7 K, the intensity of the North Atlantic deep water formation reduces by4.5 Sv, and the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 decreases by 0.8 Pg C. Climate change is also found to have a large effect on the North Atlantic’s ocean column inventory of anthropogenic CO2. Between the years 1800 and 2500, compared with the simulation with no climate change, the simulation with climate change causes a reduction in the total anthropogenic CO2 column inventory over the entire ocean and in North Atlantic by 23.1% and 32.0%, respectively. A set of simulations with climate sensitivity variations from 0.5 K to 4.5 K show that with greater climate sensitivity climate change would have a greater effect in reducing the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.

Potential climatic effects of anthropogenic aerosols

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pueschel, R.F.

1993-01-01

Aerosols act as part of the climate system through their influence on solar and terrestrial radiation. The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the reduction of visibility is explored in this chapter. Elemental carbon has been identified as the most effective visibility-reducing species. Most of the visibility reduction is due to particles with diameter smaller than 2.5 μm. Studies indicate that sulfate is also a very important aerosol species that results in low visibility and high turbidity. Radiative properties such as aerosol single-scattering albedo values and absorption-to-backscatter ratios purported to produce warming or cooling effects of aerosols are discussed. It is concluded that aerosol clouds have a tendency to cool when they are over a low-albedo surface and have a tendency to warm when they are over high-albedo surfaces such as snow. Anthropogenic aerosols have a tendency to warm the earth's atmospheric system, based on calculations and assumed aerosol optical properties. However, this effect is somewhat offset by the absorption and re-emission into space of infrared terrestrial radiation. The net effect depends on the ratio of the absorption coefficients in the visible and infrared and also on the surface albedo. The effects on infrared radiation are documented for two anthropogenic aerosol sources in the United States, the Denver metropolitan area and power plant plumes in New Mexico, through calculations and measurements. Measured cooling rates within an aerosol plume are not sufficient to offset the warming rate due to absorption of short-wave radiation. Research indicates that anthropogenic aerosols can possibly cause local-scale warming of the atmosphere, but global-scale climatic effects remain an open question

Coral Records of 20th Century Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity: Signatures of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.

2011-12-01

Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century

Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato

2008-02-05

The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO(2) and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO(2) but from the combination of CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years.

Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services, and Climate Change : The Economic Problem

OpenAIRE

World Bank

2010-01-01

Climate change is both a cause and an effect of biodiversity change. Along with anthropogenic dispersion, climate change is the main driver of change in the geographical distribution of both beneficial and harmful species, crops, livestock, harvested wild species, pests, predators and pathogens. And the capacity of ecosystems to adapt to climate change depends on the diversity of species t...

Natural and anthropogenic climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Portman, D.A.; Gutowski, W.J. Jr.; Wang, W.C.; Iacono, M.J.; Yang, S.

1992-01-01

This final report provides a broad overview of program accomplishments. Brief descriptions are provided for accomplishments with respect to intercomparisions and improvements in general circulation models, analysis of climatic data and climate model statistics, and accomplishments in the China Meteorology coordination

Climatic impacts of anthropogenic aerosols

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iversen, T. [Oslo Univ. (Norway)

1996-03-01

This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. Anthropogenic production of aerosols is mainly connected with combustion of fossil fuel. Measured by particulate mass, the anthropogenic sulphate production is the dominating source of aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere. Particles emitted in mechanical processes, fly ash etc. are less important because of their shorter atmospheric residence time. Possible climatological effects of anthropogenic aerosols are usually classified in two groups: direct and indirect. Direct effects are alterations of the radiative heating budget due to the aerosol particles in clear air. Indirect effects involve the interaction between particles and cloud processes. A simplified one-layer radiation model gave cooling in the most polluted mid-latitude areas and heating due to soot absorption in the Arctic. This differential trend in heating rates may have significant effects on atmospheric meridional circulations, which is important for the atmosphere as a thermodynamic system. Recently the description of sulphur chemistry in the hemispheric scale dispersion model has been improved and will be used in a model for Mie scattering and absorption

Climate Implications of the Heterogeneity of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Persad, Geeta Gayatri

Short-lived anthropogenic aerosols are concentrated in regions of high human activity, where they interact with radiation and clouds, causing horizontally heterogeneous radiative forcing between polluted and unpolluted regions. Aerosols can absorb shortwave energy in the atmosphere, but deplete it at the surface, producing opposite radiative perturbations between the surface and atmosphere. This thesis investigates climate and policy implications of this horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, employing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM2.1 and AM3 models, both at a global scale and using East Asia as a regional case study. The degree of difference between spatial patterns of climate change due to heterogeneous aerosol forcing versus homogeneous greenhouse gas forcing deeply impacts the detection, attribution, and prediction of regional climate change. This dissertation addresses a gap in current understanding of these two forcings' response pattern development, using AM2.1 historical forcing simulations. The results indicate that fast atmospheric and land-surface processes alone substantially homogenize the global pattern of surface energy flux response to heterogeneous aerosol forcing. Aerosols' vertical redistribution of energy significantly impacts regional climate, but is incompletely understood. It is newly identified here, via observations and historical and idealized forcing simulations, that increased aerosol-driven atmospheric absorption may explain half of East Asia's recent surface insolation decline. Further, aerosols' surface and atmospheric effects counteract each other regionally---atmospheric heating enhances summer monsoon circulation, while surface dimming suppresses it---but absorbing aerosols' combined effects reduce summer monsoon rainfall. This thesis constitutes the first vertical decomposition of aerosols' impacts in this high-emissions region and elucidates the monsoonal response to aerosols

Deconstructing Demand: The Anthropogenic and Climatic Drivers of Urban Water Consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Hemati, Azadeh; Rippy, Megan A; Grant, Stanley B; Davis, Kristen; Feldman, David

2016-12-06

Cities in drought prone regions of the world such as South East Australia are faced with escalating water scarcity and security challenges. Here we use 72 years of urban water consumption data from Melbourne, Australia, a city that recently overcame a 12 year "Millennium Drought", to evaluate (1) the relative importance of climatic and anthropogenic drivers of urban water demand (using wavelet-based approaches) and (2) the relative contribution of various water saving strategies to demand reduction during the Millennium Drought. Our analysis points to conservation as a dominant driver of urban water savings (69%), followed by nonrevenue water reduction (e.g., reduced meter error and leaks in the potable distribution system; 29%), and potable substitution with alternative sources like rain or recycled water (3%). Per-capita consumption exhibited both climatic and anthropogenic signatures, with rainfall and temperature explaining approximately 55% of the variance. Anthropogenic controls were also strong (up to 45% variance explained). These controls were nonstationary and frequency-specific, with conservation measures like outdoor water restrictions impacting seasonal water use and technological innovation/changing social norms impacting lower frequency (baseline) use. The above-noted nonstationarity implies that wavelets, which do not assume stationarity, show promise for use in future predictive models of demand.

Anthropogenic combustion iron as a complex climate forcer.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsui, Hitoshi; Mahowald, Natalie M; Moteki, Nobuhiro; Hamilton, Douglas S; Ohata, Sho; Yoshida, Atsushi; Koike, Makoto; Scanza, Rachel A; Flanner, Mark G

2018-04-23

Atmospheric iron affects the global carbon cycle by modulating ocean biogeochemistry through the deposition of soluble iron to the ocean. Iron emitted by anthropogenic (fossil fuel) combustion is a source of soluble iron that is currently considered less important than other soluble iron sources, such as mineral dust and biomass burning. Here we show that the atmospheric burden of anthropogenic combustion iron is 8 times greater than previous estimates by incorporating recent measurements of anthropogenic magnetite into a global aerosol model. This new estimation increases the total deposition flux of soluble iron to southern oceans (30-90 °S) by 52%, with a larger contribution of anthropogenic combustion iron than dust and biomass burning sources. The direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic magnetite is estimated to be 0.021 W m -2 globally and 0.22 W m -2 over East Asia. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic combustion iron is a larger and more complex climate forcer than previously thought, and therefore plays a key role in the Earth system.

Probability of climatic change. Identification of key questions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fransen, W.

1995-01-01

Addressing the question what the probability is of an anthropogenically induced change in the climate, leads to a number of other, underlying questions. These questions, which deal with the characteristics of climate, of climatic change, and of probabilistic statements on climatic change, should be addressed first. The long-term objective of the underlying study, i.e. a quantitative assessment of the risks and opportunities of the predicted climatic change, sets the context against which of those questions should be answered. In addition, this context induces extra questions, i.e. about the characteristics of risk

The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

Science.gov (United States)

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2016-01-01

A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models, globally distributed data sets, and complex laboratory and data collection procedures. Here we examine efforts by the scientific community and educational researchers to design new curricula and technology that close this gap and impart robust AGCC and Earth Science understanding. We find technology-based teaching shows promise in promoting robust AGCC understandings if associated curricula address mitigating factors such as time constraints in incorporating technology and the need to support teachers implementing AGCC and Earth Science inquiry. We recommend the scientific community continue to collaborate with educational researchers to focus on developing those inquiry technologies and curricula that use realistic scientific processes from AGCC research and/or the methods for determining how human society should respond to global change.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and scientific consensus. How scientists come to say what they say about climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alfsen, Knut H; Skodvin, Tora

1998-12-01

This document reviews the background, organization and operation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It gives some background on climate change in the past and finally discusses what IPCC says about the likely future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. 14 refs., 8 figs.

Climate change: Wilderness's greatest challenge

Science.gov (United States)

Nathan L. Stephenson; Connie Millar

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climatic change can no longer be considered an abstract possibility. It is here, its effects are already evident, and changes are expected to accelerate in coming decades, profoundly altering wilderness ecosystems. At the most fundamental level, wilderness stewards will increasingly be confronted with a trade-off between untrammeled wilderness character...

The social construct of climate and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stehr, N.

1994-01-01

Different time scales of climate change and their differential perception in society are discussed. A historical examination of natural climate changes during the past millennium suggests that short-term changes, especially crucial changes, trigger a significant response in and by society. Short-term changes correspond to the 'time horizon of everyday life', that is, to a time scale from days and weeks to a few years. The anticipated anthropogenic climate changes, however, are expected to occur on a longer time scale. They require a response by society not on the basis of primary experience but on the basis of scientifically constructed scenarios and ways in which such information is represented in the modern media for example. Socio-economic impact research relies on concepts that are based on the premise of perfectly informed actors for the development of optimal adaptation strategies. In contrast to such a conception, we develop the concept of a 'social construct of climate' as decisive for the public perception of scientific knowledge about climate and for public policy on climate change. The concept is illustrated using a number of examples. (orig.)

Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

2014-12-01

The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

2009-01-01

Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Climate impact of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Penner, J.; Zhou, C.

2017-12-01

Cirrus clouds have a net warming effect on the atmosphere and cover about 30% of the Earth's area. Aerosol particles initiate ice formation in the upper troposphere through modes of action that include homogeneous freezing of solution droplets, heterogeneous nucleation on solid particles immersed in a solution, and deposition nucleation of vapor onto solid particles. However, the efficacy with which particles act to form cirrus particles in a model depends on the representation of updrafts. Here, we use a representation of updrafts based on observations of gravity waves, and follow ice formation/evaporation during both updrafts and downdrafts. We examine the possible change in ice number concentration from anthropogenic soot originating from surface sources of fossil fuel and biomass burning and from aircraft particles that have previously formed ice in contrails. Results show that fossil fuel and biomass burning soot aerosols with this version exert a radiative forcing of -0.15±0.02 Wm-2 while aircraft aerosols that have been pre-activated within contrails exert a forcing of -0.20±0.06 Wm-2, but it is possible to decrease these estimates of forcing if a larger fraction of dust particles act as heterogeneous ice nuclei. In addition aircraft aerosols may warm the climate if a large fraction of these particles act as ice nuclei. The magnitude of the forcing in cirrus clouds can be comparable to the forcing exerted by anthropogenic aerosols on warm clouds. This assessment could therefore support climate models with high sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing, while still allowing the models to fit the overall historical temperature change.

Water supply sustainability and adaptation strategies under anthropogenic and climatic changes of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment.

Science.gov (United States)

Collet, Lila; Ruelland, Denis; Estupina, Valérie Borrell; Dezetter, Alain; Servat, Eric

2015-12-01

stronger. The environmental sector would be hardly satisfied especially in summer with low resilience levels. The adaptation strategies considered in this study would not be sufficient to cope with both anthropogenic and climate changes. Other strategies were discussed based on known examples in the Mediterranean context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PERSPECTIVE: On the verge of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system?

Science.gov (United States)

Kriegler, Elmar

2007-03-01

The recent publication of the summary for policy makers by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] has injected a renewed sense of urgency to address climate change. It is therefore timely to review the notion of preventing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' as put forward in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The article by Danny Harvey in this issue [2] offers a fresh perspective by rephrasing the concept of 'dangerous interference' as a problem of risk assessment. As Harvey points out, identification of 'dangerous interference' does not require us to know with certainty that future climate change will be dangerous—an impossible task given that our knowledge about future climate change includes uncertainty. Rather, it requires the assertion that interference would lead to a significant probability of dangerous climate change beyond some risk tolerance, and therefore would pose an unacceptable risk. In his article [2], Harvey puts this idea into operation by presenting a back-of-the-envelope calculation to identify allowable CO2 concentrations under uncertainty about climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing and the location of a temperature threshold beyond which dangerous climate change will occur. Conditional on his assumptions, Harvey delivers an interesting result. With the current atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeding 380 ppm, a forcing contribution from other greenhouse gases adding an approximate 100 110 ppm CO2 equivalent on top of it, and a global dimming effect of aerosols that roughly compensates for this contribution (albeit still subject to considerable uncertainty) ([1], figures SPM-1 and 2), we are on the verge of or even committed to dangerous interference with the climate system if we (1) set the risk tolerance for experiencing dangerous climate change to 1% and (2) allocate at least 5% probability to the belief that climate sensitivity is 4

NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Zhaofei; Wu, Shengjun; Chen, Jilong; Lü, Mingquan

2017-01-01

Natural and social environmental changes in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) have received worldwide attention. Identifying interannual changes in vegetation activities in the TGRR is an important task for assessing the impact these changes have on the local ecosystem. We used long-term (1982-2011) satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and climatic and anthropogenic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in the TGRR, as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), downward radiation (RAD), and anthropogenic activities. At the whole TGRR regional scale, a statistically significant overall uptrend in NDVI variations was observed in 1982-2011. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends split by a breakpoint in 1991: NDVI first sharply increased prior to 1991, and then showed a relatively weak rate of increase after 1991. At the pixel scale, most parts of the TGRR experienced increasing NDVI before the 1990s but different trend change types after the 1990s: trends were positive in forests in the northeastern parts, but negative in farmland in southwest parts of the TGRR. The TEM warming trend was the main climate-related driver of uptrending NDVI variations pre-1990s, and decreasing PRE was the main climate factor (42%) influencing the mid-western farmland areas' NDVI variations post-1990s. We also found that anthropogenic factors such as population density, man-made ecological restoration, and urbanization have notable impacts on the TGRR's NDVI variations. For example, large overall trend slopes in NDVI were more likely to appear in TGRR regions with large fractions of ecological restoration within the last two decades. The findings of this study may help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of NDVI variations in the periods before and during TGDP construction for ongoing ecosystem monitoring and assessment in the

Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Lianqing; Yang, Fan; Yang, Changbing; Chen, Xinfang; Zhang, Luochen; Chi, Yixia; Yang, Guang

2017-08-15

Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the double mass curve method (DMC) and the Budyko methods. The time series (1960~2015) are divided into three periods: the prior impacted period (1960~1972) and the two post impacted periods, 1973~1986 and 1987~2015 with trend analysis. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow in TRB with contribution of 144.6% to 120.68% during the post impacted period I and 228.68% to 140.38% during the post impacted period II. Climatic variables accounted for 20.68%~44.6% of the decrease during the post impacted period I and 40.38% ~128.68% during the post impacted period II. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the streamflow alteration was most sensitive to changes in landscape parameters. The aridity index and all the elasticities showed an obvious increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream in the TRB. Our study suggests that it is important to take effective measures for sustainable development of eco-hydrological and socio-economic systems in the TRB.

Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resources management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiem, Anthony S.; Clifton, Craig; Jordan, Phillip

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Recent climatic conditions (i.e. drier than average conditions for the last 10 years or more) have placed many water resource systems in south-eastern Australia near critical thresholds. Management systems are, or soon will be, at the limits of their adaptive capacity. While it is possible this situation largely reflects vulnerability to natural climatic variability, impacts of anthropogenic climate change may further expose the vulnerability of these systems. Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. In many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades, and is also being increasingly affected by anthropogenic influences. Both factors will continue to influence Australia's climate, even if immediate action is taken to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Long-term resource planning by water authorities must account for both climate variation and climate change to avoid over-allocation of water resources and to ensure economic activity based on utilisation of water resources is not unnecessarily restricted. Awareness of the vulnerability of water resources to anthropogenic climate change and uncertainty about the nature of those changes has lead to a reappraisal of which climate sequence(s) should be used in water resource planning

Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic acidification

OpenAIRE

McNeil, Ben I.; Matear, Richard J.

2011-01-01

Oceanic anthropogenic CO2 uptake will decrease both the pH and the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) of seawater leading to an oceanic acidification. However, the factors controlling future changes in pH and Ωarag are independent and will respond differently to oceanic climate change feedbacks such as ocean warming, circulation and biological changes. We examine the sensitivity of these two CO2-related parameters to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The ocean ...

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition ameliorates the decline in tree growth caused by a drier climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Ibáñez, Inés; Zak, Donald R; Burton, Andrew J; Pregitzer, Kurt S

2018-02-01

Most forest ecosystems are simultaneously affected by concurrent global change drivers. However, when assessing these effects, studies have mainly focused on the responses to single factors and have rarely evaluated the joined effects of the multiple aspects of environmental change. Here, we analyzed the combined effects of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic conditions on the radial growth of Acer saccharum, a dominant tree species in eastern North American forests. We capitalized on a long-term N deposition study, replicated along a latitudinal gradient, that has been taking place for more than 20 yr. We analyzed tree radial growth as a function of anthropogenic N deposition (ambient and experimental addition) and of summer temperature and soil water conditions. Our results reveal that experimental N deposition enhances radial growth of this species, an effect that was accentuated as temperature increased and soil water became more limiting. The spatial and temporal extent of our data also allowed us to assert that the positive effects of growing under the experimental N deposition are likely due to changes in the physiological performance of this species, and not due to the positive correlation between soil N and soil water holding capacity, as has been previously speculated in other studies. Our simulations of tree growth under forecasted climate scenarios specific for this region also revealed that although anthropogenic N deposition may enhance tree growth under a large array of environmental conditions, it will not mitigate the expected effects of growing under the considerably drier conditions characteristic of our most extreme climatic scenario. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate change-related migration and infectious disease.

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, Celia

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change will have significant impacts on both human migration and population health, including infectious disease. It will amplify and alter migration pathways, and will contribute to the changing ecology and transmission dynamics of infectious disease. However there has been limited consideration of the intersections between migration and health in the context of a changing climate. This article argues that climate-change related migration - in conjunction with other drivers of migration - will contribute to changing profiles of infectious disease. It considers infectious disease risks for different climate-related migration pathways, including: forced displacement, slow-onset migration particularly to urban-poor areas, planned resettlement, and labor migration associated with climate change adaptation initiatives. Migration can reduce vulnerability to climate change, but it is critical to better understand and respond to health impacts - including infectious diseases - for migrant populations and host communities.

A changing climate of skepticism: The factors shaping climate change coverage in the US press.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmid-Petri, Hannah; Adam, Silke; Schmucki, Ivo; Häussler, Thomas

2017-05-01

Skepticism toward climate change has a long tradition in the United States. We focus on mass media as the conveyors of the image of climate change and ask: Is climate change skepticism still a characteristic of US print media coverage? If so, to what degree and in what form? And which factors might pave the way for skeptics entering mass media debates? We conducted a quantitative content analysis of US print media during one year (1 June 2012 to 31 May 2013). Our results show that the debate has changed: fundamental forms of climate change skepticism (such as denial of anthropogenic causes) have been abandoned in the coverage, being replaced by more subtle forms (such as the goal to avoid binding regulations). We find no evidence for the norm of journalistic balance, nor do our data support the idea that it is the conservative press that boosts skepticism.

Projection of future climate changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

2015-01-01

Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

Science.gov (United States)

Stephanie K. Moore; Vera L. Trainer; Nathan J. Mantua; Micaela S. Parker; Edward A. Laws; Lorraine C. Backer; Lora E. Fleming

2008-01-01

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes...

Impacts of climate change on fisheries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brander, Keith

2010-01-01

Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the "normal" climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety...... experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production...... are evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes...

Climate change refugia for the flora and fauna of England

OpenAIRE

Suggitt, A.J.; Wilson, R.J.; August, T.A.; Beale, C.M.; Bennie, J.J.; Dordolo, A.; Fox, R.; Hopkins, J.J.; Isaac, N.J.B.; Jorieux, P.; Macgregor, N.A.; Marcetteau, J.; Massimino, D.; Morecroft, M.D.; Pearce-Higgins, J.W.

2014-01-01

A variety of evidence suggests that species have, in the past, been able to withstand the effects of climatic change in localised environments known as refugia, where specific environmental conditions acted as a buffer against broader-scale climatic changes. Therefore, an important question for conservation is whether refugia might exist under current and future anthropogenic climate change. If there are areas that are likely to remain relatively climatically stable and so enable species t...

Climate change and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

2000-08-01

The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

The relative importance of impacts from climate change vs. emissions change on air pollution levels in the 21st century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. B. Hedegaard

2013-04-01

Full Text Available So far several studies have analysed the impacts of climate change on future air pollution levels. Significant changes due to impacts of climate change have been made clear. Nevertheless, these changes are not yet included in national, regional or global air pollution reduction strategies. The changes in future air pollution levels are caused by both impacts from climate change and anthropogenic emission changes, the importance of which needs to be quantified and compared. In this study we use the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM driven by meteorological input data from the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and forced with the newly developed RCP4.5 emissions. The relative importance of the climate signal and the signal from changes in anthropogenic emissions on the future ozone, black carbon (BC, total particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 including BC, primary organic carbon (OC, mineral dust and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA and total nitrogen (including NHx + NOy has been determined. For ozone, the impacts of anthropogenic emissions dominate, though a climate penalty is found in the Arctic region and northwestern Europe, where the signal from climate change dampens the effect from the projected emission reductions of anthropogenic ozone precursors. The investigated particles are even more dominated by the impacts from emission changes. For black carbon the emission signal dominates slightly at high latitudes, with an increase up to an order of magnitude larger, close to the emission sources in temperate and subtropical areas. Including all particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 enhances the dominance from emissions change. In contrast, total nitrogen (NHx + NOy in parts of the Arctic and at low latitudes is dominated by impacts of climate change.

Climate change science - beyond IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicholls, N.

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: The main conclusions of the IPCC Working Group I assessment of the physical science of climate change, from the Fourth IPCC Assessment, will be presented, along with the evidence supporting these conclusions. These conclusions include: Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture; The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report, leading to very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] Wm-2; Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level; At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Palaeo-climatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half-century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years; Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations; Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental

Perceptions of and Attitudes Toward Climate Change in the Southeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

David Himmelfarb; John Schelhas; Sarah Hitchner; Cassandra Johnson Gaither; KathErine Dunbar; J. Peter Brosius

2014-01-01

Despite a global scientific consensus on the anthropogenic nature of climate change, the issue remains highly contentious in the United States, stifling public debate and action on the issue. Local perceptions of and attitudes toward climate change-how different groups of people outside of the professional climate science community make sense of changes in climate in...

About climate changes impact on the Kazakhstan pastures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lebed', L.V.; Belenkova, Z.S.; Turbacheva, T.P.

1997-01-01

Assessment of arid pastures vulnerability situated under direct influence of regional climate change related with greenhouse effect is carried out on Northern Aral Sea area as example. Climate change variants calculated with future prospects for on Kazakhstan territory with use up-to-date models of GFDL (USA), CCCM (Canada) climate theory are used. Number of protective measures are proposed for mitigation of consequences of possible vulnerability of pastures during simultaneous impact of complex of anthropogenic and natural factors. (author)

Inventory of Research on the Impacts of Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Cesar, H.; Linden, O.; Walker, R.

2004-01-01

Climate change is one of the greatest threats for the global environment today. Global mean temperature has risen by about 0.6 degrees C during the 20th century, greater than during any other century in the last 1000 years. Subsequently, climate change is likely to have detrimental effects on all global natural and anthropogenic systems. Climate change will have consequences for the structure and function of ecosystems and all the major global biomes. Also agricultural production and producti...

Statistical analyses for the purpose of an early detection of global and regional climate change due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect; Statistische Analysen zur Frueherkennung globaler und regionaler Klimaaenderungen aufgrund des anthropogenen Treibhauseffektes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grieser, J.; Staeger, T.; Schoenwiese, C.D.

2000-03-01

The report answers the question where, why and how different climate variables have changed within the last 100 years. The analyzed variables are observed time series of temperature (mean, maximum, minimum), precipitation, air pressure, and water vapour pressure in a monthly resolution. The time series are given as station data and grid box data as well. Two kinds of time-series analysis are performed. The first is applied to find significant changes concerning mean and variance of the time series. Thereby also changes in the annual cycle and frequency of extreme events arise. The second approach is used to detect significant spatio-temporal patterns in the variations of climate variables, which are most likely driven by known natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. Furtheron, an estimation of climate noise allows to indicate regions where certain climate variables have changed significantly due to the enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse effect. (orig.) [German] Der Bericht gibt Antwort auf die Frage, wo sich welche Klimavariable wie und warum veraendert hat. Ausgangspunkt der Analyse sind huntertjaehrige Zeitreihen der Temperatur (Mittel, Maximum, Minimum), des Niederschlags, Luftdrucks und Wasserdampfpartialdrucks in monatlicher Aufloesung. Es wurden sowohl Stationsdaten als auch Gitterpunktdaten verwendet. Mit Hilfe der strukturorientierten Zeitreihenzerlegung wurden signifikankte Aenderungen im Mittel und in der Varianz der Zeitreihen gefunden. Diese betreffen auch Aenderungen im Jahresgang und in der Haeufigkeit extremer Ereignisse. Die ursachenorientierte Zeitreihenzerlegung selektiert signifikante raumzeitliche Variationen der Klimavariablen, die natuerlichen bzw. anthropogenen Klimaantrieben zugeordnet werden koennen. Eine Abschaetzung des Klimarauschens erlaubt darueber hinaus anzugeben, wo und wie signifikant der anthropogene Treibhauseffekt welche Klimavariablen veraendert hat. (orig.)

Climate Change Mitigation: Climate, Health, and Equity Implications of the Visible and the Hidden

OpenAIRE

Shonkoff, Seth Berrin

2012-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change and the mitigation strategies aimed to attenuate it are both issues of great importance for human rights, public health, and socioeconomic equity. To understand these concerns and to better inform policy and strategic action it is critical to explore: 1) the disparities in the costs and benefits of climate shifts; 2) the abilities of different populations to adapt to these shifts; and 3) the social and health equity dimensions of the climate change mitigation stra...

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeebe, Richard E

2013-08-20

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Energy and Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-06-15

Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

Climate change, animal species, and habitats: Adaptation and issues (Chapter 5)

Science.gov (United States)

Deborah M. Finch; D. Max Smith; Olivia LeDee; Jean-Luc E. Cartron; Mark A. Rumble

2012-01-01

Because the rate of anthropogenic climate change exceeds the adaptive capacity of many animal and plant species, the scientific community anticipates negative consequences for ecosystems. Changes in climate have expanded, contracted, or shifted the climate niches of many species, often resulting in shifting geographic ranges. In the Great Basin, for example, projected...

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2013-01-01

This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

Climate Change and Global Warming: Implications for Sub-Saharan ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study reviews the potential threats of climate change in sub-Sahara Africa. It paints a picture of how the major green house gases (GHGs)-CO2, CH4 will grow in the sub-continent before the year 2015. The study also highlights the potential causes of climate change in the sub-continent based on anthropogenic and ...

Global Climate Models Intercomparison of Anthropogenic Aerosols Effects on Regional Climate over North Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, J.; Zhang, R.; Wang, Y.; Ming, Y.; Lin, Y.; Pan, B.

2015-12-01

Aerosols can alter atmospheric radiation and cloud physics, which further exert impacts on weather and global climate. With the development and industrialization of the developing Asian countries, anthropogenic aerosols have received considerable attentions and remain to be the largest uncertainty in the climate projection. Here we assess the performance of two stat-of-art global climate models (National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmosphere Model 3 (AM3)) in simulating the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on North Pacific storm track region. By contrasting two aerosol scenarios, i.e. present day (PD) and pre-industrial (PI), both models show aerosol optical depth (AOD) enhanced by about 22%, with CAM5 AOD 40% lower in magnitude due to the long range transport of anthropogenic aerosols. Aerosol effects on the ice water path (IWP), stratiform precipitation, convergence and convection strengths in the two models are distinctive in patterns and magnitudes. AM3 shows qualitatively good agreement with long-term satellite observations, while CAM5 overestimates convection and liquid water path resulting in an underestimation of large-scale precipitation and IWP. Due to coarse resolution and parameterization in convection schemes, both models' performance on convection needs to be improved. Aerosols performance on large-scale circulation and radiative budget are also examined in this study.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts for DoD installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-10

thunderstorms under the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Convective-permitting modeling is the most viable and physically robust approach to...been considered. Long-term climate changes during approximately the last 30 years (since 1980) are deemed to be anthropogenically influenced , and...1998. Implementation of prognostic cloud scheme for a regional spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2621–2639 IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013. The

Efficacy Trade-Offs in Individuals' Support for Climate Change Policies

Science.gov (United States)

Rosentrater, Lynn D.; Saelensminde, Ingrid; Ekström, Frida; Böhm, Gisela; Bostrom, Ann; Hanss, Daniel; O'Connor, Robert E.

2013-01-01

Using survey data, the authors developed an architecture of climate change beliefs in Norway and their correlation with support for policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A strong majority of respondents believe that anthropogenic climate change is occurring and identify carbon dioxide emissions as a cause. Regression analysis shows…

Chapter 3: Climate change at multiple scales

Science.gov (United States)

Constance Millar; Ron Neilson; Dominique Bachelet; Ray Drapek; Jim Lenihan

2006-01-01

Concepts about the natural world influence approaches to forest management. In the popular press, climate change inevitably refers to global warming, greenhouse gas impacts, novel anthropogenic (human-induced) threats, and international politics. There is, however, a larger context that informs our understanding of changes that are occurring - that is, Earth’...

Water, climate change and society in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Simmer, C.

2017-12-01

Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh with a population of over 17 million people, is among the top five coastal cities most vulnerable to climate change, with over 30 % of the population living in slums. Effective disaster mitigation and adaptation requires an understanding how hazards such as flooding impact the population. The impacts of climate change on flooding and thus livelihoods in the complex delta of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna rivers can not be treated isolated from other anthropogenic impacts due to e.g. the construction of dams as well as a growing population. We illustrate this by setting up a conceptual socio-hydrological causal network using the enhanced Driving force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response framework. The constructed socio-hydrological framework includes both natural and anthropogenic processes and their two-way feedbacks, allowing policy makers to know where available resources can be used effectively to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. We conclude that climate change takes place over long stretches of time and thus enable the population of Bangladesh to adapt slowly. Resources such as social capital, which is one of the main tools for slum dwellers to be able to cope with flooding can be altered over time, and as such the system can be considered overall stable and resilient. However, transboundary water sharing issues during the dry season and other implications resulting from dam structures such as Farakka Barrage complicate a prognosis on how the rapidly growing population will be affected in the 21st century. This is particularly important in connection with previous findings, which suggest that the Greater Dhaka population already experience a significant increase in mortality during droughts. Climate change can thus be seen as an anthropogenic amplification of the socio-hydrological challenges already faced by Bangladesh today.

Socioeconomic impacts of climate change on rural communities in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Pankaj Lal; Janaki Alavalapati; D Evan Mercer

2011-01-01

Climate change refers to any distinct change in measures of climate such as temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind patterns lasting for decades or longer (USEPA 2009). In the last decade, there has been a clear consensus among scientists that the world is experiencing a rapid global climate change, much of it attributable to anthropogenic activities. The extent of...

Anthropogenic influences on the climate. Anthropogene Beeinflussung des Klimas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany, F.R.) Hamburg Univ. (Germany, F.R.). Meteorologisches Inst.

1989-01-01

The author first discusses the two most important climatic parameters, introduces the components of the climatic system, explains how and why man contributes to the unwanted global climatic change and describes the most important factor, e.g. the change in the composition of the air in the main section of the paper. (orig.).

Creating a safe operating space for wetlands in a changing climate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Green, Andy J; Alcorlo, Paloma; Peeters, Edwin THM; Morris, Edward P; Espinar, José L; Bravo-Utrera, Miguel Angel; Bustamante, Javier; Díaz-Delgado, Ricardo; Koelmans, Albert A; Mateo, Rafael; Mooij, Wolf M; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Miguel; van Nes, Egbert H; Scheffer, Marten

2017-01-01

Many of the world's wetlands may be profoundly affected by climate change over the coming decades. Although wetland managers may have little control over the causes of climate change, they can help to counteract its effects through local measures. This is because direct anthropogenic impacts, such

Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

KAUST Repository

Imbers, Jara

2014-05-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

Oceanic implications for climate change policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNeil, Ben I.

2006-01-01

Under the United Nations convention on the law of the sea (1982), each participating country maintains exclusive economic and environmental rights within the oceanic region extending 200 nm from its territorial sea, known as the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Although the ocean within each EEZ is undoubtedly an anthropogenic CO 2 sink, it has been over-looked within international climate policy. In this paper I use an area-weighted scaling argument to show that the inclusion of the EEZ CO 2 sink within national carbon accounts would have significant implications in tracking national greenhouse commitments to any future climate change policy initiative. The advantages and disadvantages for inclusion of the EEZ CO 2 sink into global climate change policy are also explored. The most compelling argument for including the EEZ CO 2 sink is that it would enhance the equity and resources among coastal nations to combat and adapt against future climate change that will inherently impact coastal nations more so than land locked nations. If included, the funds raised could be used for either monitoring or adaptive coastal infrastructure among the most vulnerable nations. On the other hand, the EEZ anthropogenic CO 2 sink cannot be directly controlled by human activities and could be used as a disincentive for some developed nations to reduce fossil-fuel related greenhouse gas emissions. This may therefore dampen efforts to ultimately reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. In consideration of these arguments it is therefore suggested that an 'EEZ clause' be added to Kyoto and any future international climate policy that explicitly excludes its use within national carbon accounts under these international climate frameworks

Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Henson

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR. We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (~20–30 years. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

Science.gov (United States)

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2015-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

Can phenological shifts compensate for adverse effects of climate change on butterfly metapopulation viability?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cormont, A.; Jochem, R.; Malinowska, A.H.; Verboom, J.; Wallis de Vries, M.F.; Opdam, P.F.M.

2012-01-01

The interaction between climate change and habitat fragmentation has been presented as a deadly anthropogenic cocktail. We cannot stop climate change, but it is within our circle of influence as ecologists to suggest landscape adaptation. Detailed population models that take into account climate

Long-term effects of climate change on Europe's water resources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Domnisoru, A.

2006-01-01

Climate variations from last century show a global warming trend. Evidence from the past reveals that the anthropogenic greenhouse effect caused changes in climate parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation) at the European scale as well. On long-term this might have essential impact on

Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited

OpenAIRE

Selby, Jan; Dahi, Omar S; Fröhlich, Christiane; Hulme, Mike

2017-01-01

For proponents of the view that anthropogenic climate change will become a ‘threat multiplier’ for instability in the decades ahead, the Syrian civil war has become a recurring reference point, providing apparently compelling evidence that such conflict effects are already upon us. According to proponents of this thesis, human-induced climatic change was a contributory factor in the extreme drought experienced by Syria prior to its civil war; this drought in turn led to large-scale migration;...

Ruang Terbuka Hijau Dalam Mitigasi Perubahan Iklim Green Open Space in Climate Change Mitigation

OpenAIRE

Dewi, Yusriani Sapta

2010-01-01

Climate change is any substantial change in Earth's climate that lasts for an extended period oftime. Global warming refers to climate change that causes an increase in the average temperature of thelower atmosphere. Global warming is the combined result of anthropogenic (human-caused) emissionsof greenhouse gases and changes in solar irradiance, while climate change refers to any change in thestate of the climate that can be identified by changes in the average and/or the variability of its ...

The Effects of Climate Change on Cardiac Health.

Science.gov (United States)

De Blois, Jonathan; Kjellstrom, Tord; Agewall, Stefan; Ezekowitz, Justin A; Armstrong, Paul W; Atar, Dan

2015-01-01

The earth's climate is changing and increasing ambient heat levels are emerging in large areas of the world. An important cause of this change is the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. Climate changes have a variety of negative effects on health, including cardiac health. People with pre-existing medical conditions such as cardiovascular disease (including heart failure), people carrying out physically demanding work and the elderly are particularly vulnerable. This review evaluates the evidence base for the cardiac health consequences of climate conditions, with particular reference to increasing heat exposure, and it also explores the potential further implications. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luo Y.

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN KYIV: WAYS TO CONTERACT AND MINIMIZE NEGATIVE EFFECTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Bazylevych

2013-10-01

Full Text Available ital issues of climate change in Kyiv are studied with elucidation of the need for developing a comprehensive research technique to analyse and assess a cumulative impact of the process. The study exposes anthropogenic and natural factors responsible for climate formation in Kyiv and the climatic changes. With an account for recent international experience the proposals are formulated how to make use of contemporary administrative, economic, legal and regulatory levers to forestall climatic changes in the capital and cope with the negative environmental aftermath.

Is Time the Best Metric to Measure Carbon-Related Climate Change Potential and Tune the Economy Toward Reduced Fossil Carbon Extraction?

Science.gov (United States)

DeGroff, F. A.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic changes to non-anthropogenic carbon fluxes are a primary driver of climate change. There currently exists no comprehensive metric to measure and value anthropogenic changes in carbon flux between all states of carbon. Focusing on atmospheric carbon emissions as a measure of anthropogenic activity on the environment ignores the fungible characteristics of carbon that are crucial in both the biosphere and the worldwide economy. Focusing on a single form of inorganic carbon as a proxy metric for the plethora of anthropogenic activity and carbon compounds will prove inadequate, convoluted, and unmanageable. A broader, more basic metric is needed to capture the entirety of carbon activity, particularly in an economic, profit-driven environment. We propose a new metric to measure changes in the temporal distance of any form or state of carbon from one state to another. Such a metric would be especially useful to measure the temporal distance of carbon from sinks such as the atmosphere or oceans. The effect of changes in carbon flux as a result of any human activity can be measured by the difference between the anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic temporal distance. The change in the temporal distance is a measure of the climate change potential much like voltage is a measure of electrical potential. The integral of the climate change potential is proportional to the anthropogenic climate change. We also propose a logarithmic vector scale for carbon quality, cq, as a measure of anthropogenic changes in carbon flux. The distance between the cq vector starting and ending temporal distances represents the change in cq. A base-10 logarithmic scale would allow the addition and subtraction of exponents to calculate changes in cq. As anthropogenic activity changes the temporal distance of carbon, the change in cq is measured as: cq = ß ( log10 [mean carbon temporal distance] ) where ß represents the carbon price coefficient for a particular country. For any

Large increase in dissolved inorganic carbon flux from the Mississippi River to Gulf of Mexico due to climatic and anthropogenic changes over the 21st century.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Wei; Tian, Hanqin; Tao, Bo; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Cai, Wei-Jun; Lohrenz, Steven E; He, Ruoying; Hopkinson, Charles S

2015-04-01

It is recognized that anthropogenic factors have had a major impact on carbon fluxes from land to the ocean during the past two centuries. However, little is known about how future changes in climate, atmospheric CO 2 , and land use may affect riverine carbon fluxes over the 21st century. Using a coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, this study examines potential changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) export from the Mississippi River basin to the Gulf of Mexico during 2010-2099 attributable to climate-related conditions (temperature and precipitation), atmospheric CO 2 , and land use change. Rates of annual DIC export are projected to increase by 65% under the high emission scenario (A2) and 35% under the low emission scenario (B1) between the 2000s and the 2090s. Climate-related changes along with rising atmospheric CO 2 together would account for over 90% of the total increase in DIC export throughout the 21st century. The predicted increase in DIC export from the Mississippi River basin would alter chemistry of the coastal ocean unless appropriate climate mitigation actions are taken in the near future.

Anthropogenic effect on avalanche and debris flow activity

OpenAIRE

S. A. Sokratov; Yu. G. Seliverstov; A. L. Shnyparkov; K. P. Koltermann

2013-01-01

The paper presents examples of the change in snow avalanches and debris flows activity due to the anthropogenic pressure on vegetation and relief. The changes in dynamical characteristics of selected snow avalanches and debris flows due to the anthropogenic activity are quantified. The conclusion is made that the anthropogenic effects on the snow avalanches and debris flows activity are more pronounced than the possible effects of the climate change. The necessity is expressed on the unavoida...

Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

KAUST Repository

Imbers, Jara; Lopez, Ana; Huntingford, Chris; Allen, Myles

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

Nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services in the Brazilian La Plata Basin: anthropogenic influence and climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Watanabe, M; Ortega, E; Bergier, I; Silva, J S V

2012-08-01

The increasing human demand for food, raw material and energy has radically modified both the landscape and biogeochemical cycles in many river basins in the world. The interference of human activities on the Biosphere is so significant that it has doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen due to industrial fertiliser production (Haber-Bosch), fossil fuel burning and land-use change over the last century. In this context, the Brazilian La Plata Basin contributes to the alteration of the nitrogen cycle in South America because of its huge agricultural and grazing area that meets the demands of its large urban centres - Sao Paulo, for instance - and also external markets abroad. In this paper, we estimate the current inputs and outputs of anthropogenic nitrogen (in kg N.km(-2).yr(-1)) in the basin. In the results, we observe that soybean plays a very important role in the Brazilian La Plata, since it contributes with an annual entrance of about 1.8 TgN due to biological nitrogen fixation. Moreover, our estimate indicates that the export of soybean products accounts for roughly 1.0 TgN which is greater than the annual nitrogen riverine exports from Brazilian Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers together. Complimentarily, we built future scenarios representing changes in the nitrogen cycle profile considering two scenarios of climate change for 2070-2100 (based on IPCC's A2 and B2) that will affect land-use, nitrogen inputs, and loss of such nutrients in the basin. Finally, we discuss how both scenarios will affect human well-being since there is a connection between nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services that affect local and global populations, such as food and fibre production and climate regulation.

Nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services in the Brazilian La Plata Basin: anthropogenic influence and climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Watanabe

Full Text Available The increasing human demand for food, raw material and energy has radically modified both the landscape and biogeochemical cycles in many river basins in the world. The interference of human activities on the Biosphere is so significant that it has doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen due to industrial fertiliser production (Haber-Bosch, fossil fuel burning and land-use change over the last century. In this context, the Brazilian La Plata Basin contributes to the alteration of the nitrogen cycle in South America because of its huge agricultural and grazing area that meets the demands of its large urban centres - Sao Paulo, for instance - and also external markets abroad. In this paper, we estimate the current inputs and outputs of anthropogenic nitrogen (in kg N.km-2.yr-1 in the basin. In the results, we observe that soybean plays a very important role in the Brazilian La Plata, since it contributes with an annual entrance of about 1.8 TgN due to biological nitrogen fixation. Moreover, our estimate indicates that the export of soybean products accounts for roughly 1.0 TgN which is greater than the annual nitrogen riverine exports from Brazilian Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers together. Complimentarily, we built future scenarios representing changes in the nitrogen cycle profile considering two scenarios of climate change for 2070-2100 (based on IPCC's A2 and B2 that will affect land-use, nitrogen inputs, and loss of such nutrients in the basin. Finally, we discuss how both scenarios will affect human well-being since there is a connection between nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services that affect local and global populations, such as food and fibre production and climate regulation.

Projected future climate changes in the context of geological and geomorphological hazards.

Science.gov (United States)

Liggins, Felicity; Betts, Richard A; McGuire, Bill

2010-05-28

On palaeoclimate time scales, enhanced levels of geological and geomorphological activity have been linked to climatic factors, including examples of processes that are expected to be important in current and future anthropogenic climate change. Planetary warming leading to increased rainfall, ice-mass loss and rising sea levels is potentially relevant to geospheric responses in many geologically diverse regions. Anthropogenic climate change, therefore, has the potential to alter the risk of geological and geomorphological hazards through the twenty-first century and beyond. Here, we review climate change projections from both global and regional climate models in the context of geohazards. In assessing the potential for geospheric responses to climate change, it appears prudent to consider regional levels of warming of 2 degrees C above average pre-industrial temperature as being potentially unavoidable as an influence on processes requiring a human adaptation response within this century. At the other end of the scale when considering changes that could be avoided by reduction of emissions, scenarios of unmitigated warming exceeding 4 degrees C in the global average include much greater local warming in some regions. However, considerable further work is required to better understand the uncertainties associated with these projections, uncertainties inherent not only in the climate modelling but also in the linkages between climate change and geospheric responses.

Interactions of Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Human Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinney, Patrick L

2018-03-01

I review literature on the impacts of climate change on air quality and human health, with a focus on articles published from 2013 on ozone and airborne particles. Selected previous literature is discussed where relevant in tracing the origins of our current knowledge. Climate and weather have strong influences on the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollution concentrations. Emissions of ozone and PM 2.5 precursors increase at higher ambient temperatures. The reactions that form ozone occur faster with greater sunlight and higher temperatures. Weather systems influence the movement and dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere through the action of winds, vertical mixing, and precipitation, all of which are likely to alter in a changing climate. Recent studies indicate that, holding anthropogenic air pollution emissions constant, ozone concentrations in populated regions will tend to increase in future climate scenarios. For the USA, the climate impact on ozone is most consistently seen in north-central and north-eastern states, with the potential for many thousands of additional ozone-related deaths. The sensitivity of anthropogenic PM 2.5 to climate is more variable across studies and regions, owing to the varied nature of PM constituents, as well as to less complete characterization of PM reaction chemistry in available atmospheric models. However, PM emitted by wildland fires is likely to become an increasing health risk in many parts of the world as climate continues to change. The complex interactions between climate change and air quality imply that future policies to mitigate these twin challenges will benefit from greater coordination. Assessing the health implications of alternative policy approaches towards climate and pollution mitigation will be a critical area of future work.

Climate-society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Jarvis, A. J.; Leedal, D. T.; Hewitt, C. N.

2012-09-01

The growth in anthropogenic CO2 emissions experienced since the onset of the Industrial Revolution is the most important disturbance operating on the Earth's climate system. To avoid dangerous climate change, future greenhouse-gas emissions will have to deviate from business-as-usual trajectories. This implies that feedback links need to exist between climate change and societal actions. Here, we show that, consciously or otherwise, these feedbacks can be represented by linking global mean temperature change to the growth dynamics of CO2 emissions. We show that the global growth of new renewable sources of energy post-1990 represents a climate-society feedback of ~0.25%yr-1 per degree increase in global mean temperature. We also show that to fulfil the outcomes negotiated in Durban in 2011, society will have to become ~ 50 times more responsive to global mean temperature change than it has been since 1990. If global energy use continues to grow as it has done historically then this would result in amplification of the long-term endogenous rate of decarbonization from -0.6%yr-1 to ~-13%yr-1. It is apparent that modest levels of feedback sensitivity pay large dividends in avoiding climate change but that the marginal return on this effort diminishes rapidly as the required feedback strength increases.

Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganesh, Chandrakala; Smith, Jason A

2018-04-01

Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions.

Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jason A.

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California’s progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions. PMID:29072936

Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine (Gulo gulo L.).

Science.gov (United States)

Heim, Nicole; Fisher, Jason T; Clevenger, Anthony; Paczkowski, John; Volpe, John

2017-11-01

Contemporary landscapes are subject to a multitude of human-derived stressors. Effects of such stressors are increasingly realized by population declines and large-scale extirpation of taxa worldwide. Most notably, cumulative effects of climate and landscape change can limit species' local adaptation and dispersal capabilities, thereby reducing realized niche space and range extent. Resolving the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on species persistence is a pressing challenge in ecology, especially for declining species. For example, wolverines ( Gulo gulo L.) persist on only 40% of their historic North American range. While climate change has been shown to be a mechanism of range retractions, anthropogenic landscape disturbance has been recently implicated. We hypothesized these two interact to effect declines. We surveyed wolverine occurrence using camera trapping and genetic tagging at 104 sites at the wolverine range edge, spanning a 15,000 km 2 gradient of climate, topographic, anthropogenic, and biotic variables. We used occupancy and generalized linear models to disentangle the factors explaining wolverine distribution. Persistent spring snow pack-expected to decrease with climate change-was a significant predictor, but so was anthropogenic landscape change. Canid mesocarnivores, which we hypothesize are competitors supported by anthropogenic landscape change, had comparatively weaker effect. Wolverine population declines and range shifts likely result from climate change and landscape change operating in tandem. We contend that similar results are likely for many species and that research that simultaneously examines climate change, landscape change, and the biotic landscape is warranted. Ecology research and species conservation plans that address these interactions are more likely to meet their objectives.

Climate Change Decouples Drought from Early Wine Grape Harvests in France

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.

2016-01-01

Across the world, wine grape phenology has advanced in recent decades, in step with climate-change-induced trends in temperature - the main driver of fruit maturation - and drought. Fully understanding how climate change contributes to changes in harvest dates, however, requires analysing wine grape phenology and its relationship to climate over a longer-term context, including data predating anthropogenic interference in the climate system. Here, we investigate the climatic controls of wine grape harvest dates from 1600-2007 in France and Switzerland using historical harvest and climate data. Early harvests occur with warmer temperatures (minus 6 days per degree Centigrade) and are delayed by wet conditions (plus 0.07 days per millimeter; plus 1.68 days per PDSI (Palmer drought severity index)) during spring and summer. In recent decades (1981-2007), however, the relationship between harvest timing and drought has broken down. Historically, high summer temperatures in Western Europe, which would hasten fruit maturation, required drought conditions to generate extreme heat. The relationship between drought and temperature in this region, however, has weakened in recent decades and enhanced warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases can generate the high temperatures needed for early harvests without drought. Our results suggest that climate change has fundamentally altered the climatic drivers of early wine grape harvests in France, with possible ramifications for viticulture management and wine quality.

How will climate change affect wildland fire severity in the western US?

Science.gov (United States)

Sean A. Parks; Carol Miller; John T. Abatzoglou; Lisa M. Holsinger; Marc-Andre Parisien; Solomon Z. Dobrowski

2016-01-01

Fire regime characteristics in North America are expected to change over the next several decades as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Although some fire regime characteristics (e.g., area burned and fire season length) are relatively well-studied in the context of a changing climate, fire severity has received less attention. In this study, we used...

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-01-01

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-11-07

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

Valuing Precaution in Climate Change Policy Analysis (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Howarth, R. B.

2010-12-01

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI) with the global environment. This treaty language emphasizes a precautionary approach to climate change policy in a setting characterized by substantial uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and impacts of climate change. In the economics of climate change, however, analysts often work with deterministic models that assign best-guess values to parameters that are highly uncertain. Such models support a “policy ramp” approach in which only limited steps should be taken to reduce the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation will explore how uncertainties related to (a) climate sensitivity and (b) climate-change damages can be satisfactorily addressed in a coupled model of climate-economy dynamics. In this model, capping greenhouse gas concentrations at ~450 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent provides substantial net benefits by reducing the risk of low-probability, catastrophic impacts. This result formalizes the intuition embodied in the DAI criterion in a manner consistent with rational decision-making under uncertainty.

The role of Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) on Ancient Climates and Implications for Anthropogenic Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Cumming, M.

2017-12-01

Our increasingly robust history of ancient climates indicates that high latitude glaciation is the ultimate product of an episodic cooling trend that began about 100-million years ago rather than a result of a yet-to-be identified modal change. Antarctic geography (continent surrounded by ocean) allowed ice to develop prior to significant glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere (ocean surrounded by land), but global ice volume generally increased as Earth cooled. The question of what caused the Ice Ages should be reframed as to "What caused the Cenozoic Cooling?" Records tell us that changes in temperature and CO2 levels rise and fall together, however it is not clear when CO2 acts as a driver versus when it is primarily an indicator of temperature change. The episodic nature of the cooling trend suggests other more dynamic phenomena are involved. It is proposed that oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a significant role in regulating Earth's surface temperature. Robust MOC has a cooling effect which results from its sequestration of cold waters (together with their increased heat-absorbing potential) below the surface. Unable to better absorb equatorial insolation for great lengths of time, oceanic deep waters are not able to fully compensate for the heat lost by warm-water transport to Polar Regions. A lag-time between cooling and subsequent warming yields lower operating temperatures commensurate with the strength of global MOC. The long-term decline in global temperatures is largely explained by the tectonic reshaping of ocean basins and the connections between them such that MOC has generally, but not uniformly, increased. Geophysically Influenced MOC (GIMOC) has caused a significant proportion of the lowering of global temperatures in the Cenozoic Era. Short-term disruptions in MOC (and subsequent impacts on global temperatures) were likely involved in Late Pleistocene glacial termination events and may already be compounding present

Does Climate Literacy Matter? A Case Study of U.S. Students' Level of Concern about Anthropogenic Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Bedford, Daniel

2016-01-01

Educators seeking to address global warming in their classrooms face numerous challenges, including the question of whether student opinions about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) can change in response to increased knowledge about the climate system. This article analyzes survey responses from 458 students at a primarily undergraduate…

Quantifying Anthropogenic Dust Emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Nicholas P.; Pierre, Caroline

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change, including local environmental disturbances, moderate rates of wind-driven soil erosion and dust emission. These human-dust cycle interactions impact ecosystems and agricultural production, air quality, human health, biogeochemical cycles, and climate. While the impacts of land use activities and land management on aeolian processes can be profound, the interactions are often complex and assessments of anthropogenic dust loads at all scales remain highly uncertain. Here, we critically review the drivers of anthropogenic dust emission and current evaluation approaches. We then identify and describe opportunities to: (1) develop new conceptual frameworks and interdisciplinary approaches that draw on ecological state-and-transition models to improve the accuracy and relevance of assessments of anthropogenic dust emissions; (2) improve model fidelity and capacity for change detection to quantify anthropogenic impacts on aeolian processes; and (3) enhance field research and monitoring networks to support dust model applications to evaluate the impacts of disturbance processes on local to global-scale wind erosion and dust emissions.

Analyzing the climate change debate on Twitter – content and differences between genders

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holmberg, K; Hellsten, I.

2014-01-01

We present a study about gender differences towards anthropogenic impact on climate change, as discovered from the climate change debate on Twitter. Our dataset consists of about 250,000 tweets and retweets for which the authors' gender was identified. We researched the hashtags and usernames that

The impacts of past climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bradshaw, R.H.W.; Anderson, N.J.

2001-01-01

The last two million years of global history have been dominated by the impacts of rapid climate change. This influence is not immediately obvious to most biologists whose observations rarely extend beyond a period of a few years, but becomes apparent when interpreting long-term data sets whether they be population studies or palaeoecological data. It is appropriate therefore to consider how terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have responded to climate change during the Quaternary when speculating about response to future climatic developments. In this chapter we discuss and illustrate the complex interactions between climate and anthropogenic influence on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems during the Holocene. Climate influences ecosystems both directly (e.g. physiological responses or lake thermal stratification) and indirectly (e.g. via fire frequency or catchment hydrology). Lake sediments can be used to study both past climatic change directly and the effects of past climatic variability. In this chapter we present summary examples of the influence of past climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems as well showing how lake sediment records can provide proxy records of past climate change. The geological record from the last 18 000 years documents large changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems that are primarily driven by climatic change, but are modified by internal ecosystem processes. These changes are comparable in magnitude and rapidity to those predicted for the near future. Species at their distributional limits are particularly sensitive to climate change and contractions of range can be sudden in response to extreme climatic events such as the storm of December 1999 that damaged Picea trees far more than tree species that lay within their natural range limits. Palaeoecological records provide compelling evidence for direct climate forcing of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems but importantly also permit comparative analyses of impacts

Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hossain, Kaizar; Yadav, Sarita; Quaik, Shlrene; Pant, Gaurav; Maruthi, A. Y.; Ismail, Norli

2017-08-01

The rise in the earth's surface and water temperature is part of the effect of climatic change that has been observed for the last decade. The rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been prominent in all levels of species, communities and ecosystems. Aquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have contributed severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Most researches on climate change effects on biodiversity are contemplating on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have been detected in response to climate change. This is unfortunate, given the importance of aquatic systems for providing ecosystem goods and services. Thus, if researchers were able to identify early-warning indicators of anthropogenic environmental changes on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems, it would certainly help to manage and conserve these systems in a sustainable way. One of such early-warning indicators concerns the expansion of emergent macrophytes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones. Hence, this review highlights the impact of climatic changes towards aquatic macrophytes and their possible environmental implications.

Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Milano, Marianne; Reynard, Emmanuel; Köplin, Nina; Weingartner, Rolf

2015-12-01

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards a national adaptation strategy in view of climate changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. DOUKAKIS

2004-06-01

• The general national adaptation principles. The presentation analyses all the above concepts and proposes specific guidelines to formulate a Greek National Adaptation Strategy to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic climate changes.

The Liability of European States for Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roger H J Cox

2014-02-01

Full Text Available According to climate science and the 195 signatory States to the UN Climate Convention, every emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases contributes to climate change. Furthermore, they hold that a two degree Celsius rise of Earth’s average temperature is to be considered as a dangerous climate change to mankind and all of the world’s ecosystems. Using the climate proceedings of Dutch citizens against the Dutch state as a starting point, the author of this case note explains why each European Member State’s contribution to dangerous climate change as a result of inadequate emission reduction policies constitutes a tort of negligence against its citizens and poses a real threat for its citizens’ effective enjoyment of human rights. The author argues that this makes individual European Nations severally liable for dangerous climate change and gives European citizens and non-governmental organisations the possibility to request their Nation State’s competent court to compel the Nation’s government to implement stricter emission reductions in accordance with what is deemed necessary to help avoid dangerous climate change and to protect their human rights.

The multivariate climatic and anthropogenic elasticity of streamflow in the Eastern United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yushiou Tsai

2017-02-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Changes in climate, LULC, and water use all significantly affected mean and drought flows. The interactions of these factors moderated the effect of precipitation on mean flow for regions where anthropogenic influences cannot be ignored. Human-induced land use changes were found to have a greater influence on drought flow than mean flow. Increased water use significantly reduced mean flow in the Northeast, where urbanization was more prevalent. Although the effect of water use on drought flow was found to be greater than its effect on mean flow, the variations of most water use effect estimates were too large to be concluded as significant.

Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic acidification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNeil, Ben I.; Matear, Richard J.

2007-01-01

Oceanic anthropogenic CO 2 uptake will decrease both the pH and the aragonite saturation state (Oarag) of seawater leading to an oceanic acidification. However, the factors controlling future changes in pH and Oarag are independent and will respond differently to oceanic climate change feedbacks such as ocean warming, circulation and biological changes. We examine the sensitivity of these two CO 2 -related parameters to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The ocean warming feedback was found to dominate the climate change responses in the surface ocean. Although surface pH is projected to decrease relatively uniformly by about 0.3 by the year 2100, we find pH to be insensitive to climate change feedbacks, whereas Oarag is buffered by ∼15%. Ocean carbonate chemistry creates a situation whereby the direct pH changes due to ocean warming are almost cancelled by the pH changes associated with dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations changes via a reduction in CO 2 solubility from ocean warming. We show that the small climate change feedback on future surface ocean pH is independent to the amount of ocean warming. Our analysis therefore implies that future projections of surface ocean acidification only need to consider future atmospheric CO 2 levels, not climate change induced modifications in the ocean

Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion About Some Key Issues

OpenAIRE

Scafetta, Nicola

2010-01-01

This article discusses the limits of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory advocated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data themselves is proposed. At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system. A climatic stabilization or cooling until 2030-2040 is forecast by the phenomenological model.

Evidence of Climate Change (Global Warming) and Temperature Increases in Arctic Areas

OpenAIRE

Eric Kojo Wu Aikins

2012-01-01

This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the...

Conveying the Science of Climate Change: Explaining Natural Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Chanton, J.

2011-12-01

One of the main problems in climate change education is reconciling the role of humans and natural variability. The climate is always changing, so how can humans have a role in causing change? How do we reconcile and differentiate the anthropogenic effect from natural variability? This talk will offer several approaches that have been successful for the author. First, the context of climate change during the Pleistocene must be addressed. Second, is the role of the industrial revolution in significantly altering Pleistocene cycles, and introduction of the concept of the Anthropocene. Finally the positive feedbacks between climatic nudging due to increased insolation and greenhouse gas forcing can be likened to a rock rolling down a hill, without a leading cause. This approach has proven successful in presentations to undergraduates to state agencies.

Climate change and climate policy; Klimaendringer og klimapolitikk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

2000-08-01

The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done

Climate Change Impacts on Environmental and Human Exposure to Mercury in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Rautio, Arja

2015-01-01

This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure. PMID:25837201

Climate change impacts on environmental and human exposure to mercury in the arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G; Rautio, Arja

2015-03-31

This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure.

Bio-monitoring of the most industrialized area in Poland: Trees' response to climate and anthropogenic environmental changes

Science.gov (United States)

Sensuła, Barbara; Wilczyński, Sławomir; Piotrowska, Natalia

2017-04-01

Silesia is one of the regions with the highest levels of air pollution in Europe, highly industrialized over the years and highly populated. In this study, trees (Pinus Sylvestris L.)growing in the heavily urbanized area in close proximity to point-source pollution emitters, such as a heat and power plant, nitrogen plant, and steelworks in Silesia (Poland), were analyzed as bio-indicators of contemporary environmental changes. Trees are a very good archive of ecosystem changes, becouse they are sensitive to climate changes and anthropogenic pollution. The pollution impacts human, plants and animal life and different ecosystem processes. The changes in the ecosystem can disturb the metabolism and physiological processes of trees, and consequently, they also have an effect on the wood structure, tree ring width and the isotopic composition of wood and its components. The analysed samples covered the time period of the development of industrialization and the modernization in the industrial sector in Poland. In Poland, the systematic long-term monitoring of air pollutants is generally restricted to rural point-source regions in urban areas. Even for those areas, air pollution emissions were not continually monitored and data is only available for the last decades. Tree ring series that present long-term data can be used to analyse the ecosystem changes, caused by human activities. The conifers investigated in this study have grown for many years under the stress of environmental contamination. We analysed the spatiotemporal distribution of growth reductions, the depth of reduction with respect to the distance from the emitter, the relationship between tree growth and radiocarbon and stable isotope composition and climate during the industry development period and during pro-ecological strategy application. Pines chronologies indicate that trees have a similar sensitivity to most climatic elements of the previous and given year, but there is also observed a different

Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate

Science.gov (United States)

Santer, Benjamin D.; Taylor, Karl E.; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Penner, Joyce E.; Jones, Philip D.; Cubasch, Ulrich

1995-12-01

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [ R(t)] and uncentered [ C(t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C(t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R(t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO2 forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R(t) and C(t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of ‘unforced’ trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO2 experiment, the 50-year R(t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R(t) trends for the C02-only signal are not significant in any season. C(t) trends for signals from both the C02-only and combined forcing

Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

King, Sammy L.

2010-01-01

Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

Climate change adaptation of the built environment – an examination

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

2014-01-01

phenomena. This is why the term 'environmental changes' might be more accurate than climate change. ‘Environmental changes’ suggests that climate changes ought to be understood as extensive environmental changes, with an impact on the built environment. Following this, it is no longer sufficient only...... to assess for example a building, and anthropogenic impacts on the environment, also the impact of the environment on installations, and on the human activities must be included in the analysis and assessments. Based on observations and investigations into climate change adaptation in DK and abroad......In a Danish context, climate changes are primarily manifested in an interaction between modified wind and precipitation patterns, increasing temperature and a rising sea level. The individual factors often act together and are reinforced in interaction with already known natural and cultural...

Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giorgi, F.; Meleux, F.

2007-01-01

The life cycle of pollutants is affected by chemical as well as meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation. Therefore, climatic changes induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may be expected to have significant effects on air quality. Because of the spatial variability of the pollutant emissions and climate-change signals, these effects are particularly relevant at the regional to local scales. This paper first briefly reviews modelling tools and methodologies used to study regional climate-change impacts on air quality. Patterns of regional precipitation, temperature, and sea-level changes emerging from the latest set of general circulation model projections are then discussed. Finally, the specific case of climate-change effects on summer ozone concentrations over Europe is presented to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on pollutant amounts. It is concluded that climate change is an important factor that needs to be taken into account when designing future pollution-reduction policies. (authors)

Climate change and global warming: implications for sub-Saharan Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Christian, E.

2010-07-01

The study reviews the potential threats of climate change in sub-Sahara Africa. It paints a picture of how the major green house gases (GHGs) -- CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} -- will grow in the sub-continent before the year 2015. The study also highlights the potential causes of climate change in the sub-continent based on anthropogenic and physical factors. It further examined the impacts of climate change in the sub-region based on the sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptations opened to the sub-region. Observation shows that overall social and economic activities in sub-Sahara Africa will be substantially worse than in any other developing world. Consequently, mitigation and adaptation measures were suggested to alleviate the impacts of climate change in the sub-region.

Climate change track in river floods in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. W. Kundzewicz

2015-06-01

Full Text Available A holistic perspective on changing river flood risk in Europe is provided. Economic losses from floods have increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. Climate change (i.e. observed increase in precipitation intensity, decrease of snowpack and other observed climate changes might already have had an impact on floods. However, no gauge-based evidence had been found for a climate-driven, widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods during the last decades. There are strong regional and sub-regional variations in the trends. Moreover, it has not been generally possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change. Physical reasoning suggests that projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall would contribute to increases in rain-generated local floods, while less snowmelt flooding and earlier spring peak flows in snowmelt-fed rivers are expected. However, there is low confidence in future changes in flood magnitude and frequency resulting from climate change. The impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes. Discussion of projections of flood hazard in Europe is offered. Attention is drawn to a considerable uncertainty - over the last decade or so, projections of flood hazard in Europe have largely changed.

Farmers and Climate Change: A Cross-National Comparison of Beliefs and Risk Perceptions in High-Income Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Prokopy, Linda S; Arbuckle, J G; Barnes, Andrew P; Haden, V R; Hogan, Anthony; Niles, Meredith T; Tyndall, John

2015-08-01

Climate change has serious implications for the agricultural industry-both in terms of the need to adapt to a changing climate and to modify practices to mitigate for the impacts of climate change. In high-income countries where farming tends to be very intensive and large scale, it is important to understand farmers' beliefs and concerns about climate change in order to develop appropriate policies and communication strategies. Looking across six study sites-Scotland, Midwestern United States, California, Australia, and two locations in New Zealand-this paper finds that over half of farmers in each location believe that climate change is occurring. However, there is a wide range of beliefs regarding the anthropogenic nature of climate change; only in Australia do a majority of farmers believe that climate change is anthropogenic. In all locations, a majority of farmers believe that climate change is not a threat to local agriculture. The different policy contexts and existing impacts from climate change are discussed as possible reasons for the variation in beliefs. This study compared varying surveys from the different locations and concludes that survey research on farmers and climate change in diverse locations should strive to include common questions to facilitate comparisons.

Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

2008-01-01

An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

Climate change risk perception and communication: addressing a critical moment?

Science.gov (United States)

Pidgeon, Nick

2012-06-01

Climate change is an increasingly salient issue for societies and policy-makers worldwide. It now raises fundamental interdisciplinary issues of risk and uncertainty analysis and communication. The growing scientific consensus over the anthropogenic causes of climate change appears to sit at odds with the increasing use of risk discourses in policy: for example, to aid in climate adaptation decision making. All of this points to a need for a fundamental revision of our conceptualization of what it is to do climate risk communication. This Special Collection comprises seven papers stimulated by a workshop on "Climate Risk Perceptions and Communication" held at Cumberland Lodge Windsor in 2010. Topics addressed include climate uncertainties, images and the media, communication and public engagement, uncertainty transfer in climate communication, the role of emotions, localization of hazard impacts, and longitudinal analyses of climate perceptions. Climate change risk perceptions and communication work is critical for future climate policy and decisions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Markovic, Danijela; Carrizo, Savrina F; Kärcher, Oskar; Walz, Ariane; David, Jonathan N W

2017-09-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Late Quaternary changes in climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmgren, K; Karlen, W [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

1998-12-01

This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

Late Quaternary changes in climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W.

1998-12-01

This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

2015-12-04

Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.

Effect of recent climate change on Arctic Pb pollution: A comparative study of historical records in lake and peat sediments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xiaodong; Jiang Shan; Zhang Pengfei; Xu Liqiang

2012-01-01

Historical changes of anthropogenic Pb pollution were reconstructed based on Pb concentrations and isotope ratios in lake and peat sediment profiles from Ny-Ålesund of Arctic. The calculated excess Pb isotope ratios showed that Pb pollution largely came from west Europe and Russia. The peat profile clearly reflected the historical changes of atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic Pb into Ny-Ålesund, and the result showed that anthropogenic Pb peaked at 1960s–1970s, and thereafter a significant recovery was observed by a rapid increase of 206 Pb/ 207 Pb ratios and a remarkable decrease in anthropogenic Pb contents. In contrast to the peat record, the longer lake record showed relatively high anthropogenic Pb contents and a persistent decrease of 206 Pb/ 207 Pb ratios within the uppermost samples, suggesting that climate-sensitive processes such as catchment erosion and meltwater runoff might have influenced the recent change of Pb pollution record in the High Arctic lake sediments. - Highlights: ► Historical changes of anthropogenic Pb pollution in Ny-Ålesund were reconstructed. ► Anthropogenic Pb in Ny-Ålesund was largely originated from W. European and Russia. ► Anthropogenic Pb recorded in peat sediments peaked at 1960–1970s and then declined. ► High anthropogenic fluxes were found in recent change of Pb record from lake sediments. ► Climate-sensitive processes might have influenced recent Pb accumulation rate in lakes. - This manuscript reports the effects of climate-sensitive processes on historical records of Pb pollution in sediments of Arctic lakes.

Climate Change Education in the Southeastern U.S. Through Public Dialogue: Not Just Preaching to the Choir

Science.gov (United States)

McNeal, Karen S.; Hammerman, James K. L.; Christiansen, Jonathan A.; Carroll, F. Julian

2014-01-01

Climate change education in the southeastern United States can be challenging. Due to economic factors, as well as the conservative political and faith perspectives typical of the region, high proportions (40%) of the population are not engaged, not convinced, or doubt Earth's climate is changing or that climate change has anthropogenic causes.…

Temperature and extreme rainfalls on France in a climatic change scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deque, M.

2007-01-01

Impact of an anthropogenic climate change scenario on the frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation over France is studied with a numerical simulation calibrated with observed daily data from the synoptic network. (author)

Past climate change and recent anthropogenic activities affect genetic structure and population demography of the greater long-tailed hamster in northern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Junbin; Xiao, Zhenlong; Li, Chuanhai; Wang, Fusheng; Liao, Jicheng; Fu, Jinzhong; Zhang, Zhibin

2015-09-01

The genetic diversity and the spatial structure of a species are likely consequences of both past and recent evolutionary processes, but relevant studies are still rare in East Asia where the Pleistocene climate has unique influences. In this study, we examined the impact of past climate change and recent anthropogenic activities on the genetic structure and population size of the greater long-tailed hamster (Tscherskia triton), an agricultural rodent pest species in northern China. DNA sequence data of 2 mitochondrial genes and genotypic data of 11 microsatellite DNA loci from 41 populations (545 individuals) were gathered. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses, as well as species distribution modeling and coalescent simulations, were conducted to infer its historical and demographic patterns and processes. Two deeply diverged mitochondrial clades were recovered. A small one was restricted to the Shandong Peninsula while the main clade was further divided into 3 geographic clusters by their microsatellite DNA genotypes: Northwest, North-center and Northeast. Divergence dating indicated a Middle-to-Late Pleistocene divergence between the 2 clades. Demographic analysis indicated that all 3 and pooled populations showed consistent long-period expansions during last glacial period; but not during the Holocene, probably due to the impact of climate warming and human disturbances. Conflicting patterns between mtDNA and microsatellite markers imply an anthropogenic impact on North-center populations due to intensified agricultural cultivation in this region. Our study demonstrated that the impact of past glaciation on organisms in East Asia significantly differs from that of Europe and North America, and human activity is an important factor in determining the genetic diversity of a species, as well as its spatial structure. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Tien Ming; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Howe, Peter D.; Ko, Chia-Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

2015-11-01

Climate change is a threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, yet public opinion research finds that public awareness and concern vary greatly. Here, using an unprecedented survey of 119 countries, we determine the relative influence of socio-demographic characteristics, geography, perceived well-being, and beliefs on public climate change awareness and risk perceptions at national scales. Worldwide, educational attainment is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness. Understanding the anthropogenic cause of climate change is the strongest predictor of climate change risk perceptions, particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries. However, other key factors associated with public awareness and risk perceptions highlight the need to develop tailored climate communication strategies for individual nations. The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action.

Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

2010-12-01

Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

Anthropogenic effect on avalanche and debris flow activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Sokratov

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents examples of the change in snow avalanches and debris flows activity due to the anthropogenic pressure on vegetation and relief. The changes in dynamical characteristics of selected snow avalanches and debris flows due to the anthropogenic activity are quantified. The conclusion is made that the anthropogenic effects on the snow avalanches and debris flows activity are more pronounced than the possible effects of the climate change. The necessity is expressed on the unavoidable changes of the natural environment as the result of a construction and of use of the constructed infrastructure to be account for in corresponding planning of the protection measures.

Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwer, L.M.

2013-01-01

Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

Climate change. Important findings from the 4. fact finding report of the intergovernmental commission on climate change of the United Nations (IPCC); Klimaaenderung. Wichtige Erkentnisse aus dem 4. Sachstandsbericht des Zwischenstaatlichen Ausschusses fuer Klimaaenderungen der Vereinten Nationen (IPCC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maeder, Claudia

2009-12-19

The Report covers the following topics: 1. anthropogenic climate change - since when do we know about it? 2. IPCC - the intergovernmental commission for climate change. 3. Assignable causes for climate change: changes of incoming solar radiation, changes of the reflected solar radiation, change of the heat radiation lost into space, aerosols, internal variability of the climate system. 4. Historical climate changes in long periods. 5. Development of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 6. Observed climate changes. 7. Projections of future climate changes. 8. Consequences of climate change: consequences of the actual temperature increase, possible future consequences, freshwater resources and their management, ecosystems, agricultural production, coastal regions and low lying areas.

Research on Climate Change and Its Impacts Needs Freedom of Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicole Mölders

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Climate change captured my interest as a teenager when, at the dining table, my dad talked about potential anthropogenic climate changes. He brought up subjects such as “climate could change if the Siberian Rivers were to be deviated to the South for irrigation of the (semi arid areas of the former Soviet Union”. Other subjects were afforestation in the Sahel to enhance precipitation recycling, deforestation in the Tropics that could have worldwide impacts on climate, the local climate impacts of the Merowe High Dam in its vicinity and downstream, Atlantropa, a new ice age, and the increase in days with sunshine after the introduction of the high-chimney policy in the Rhein-Ruhr area, just to mention a few.

Real-time observational evidence of changing Asian dust morphology with the mixing of heavy anthropogenic pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, X.; Uno, I.; Wang, Z.; Nishizawa, T.; Sugimoto, N.; Yamamoto, S.; Kobayashi, H.; Sun, Y.; Fu, P.; Tang, X.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

Natural mineral dust and heavy anthropogenic pollution and its complex interactions cause significant environmental problems in East Asia. Due to restrictions of observing technique, real-time morphological change in Asian dust particles owing to coating process of anthropogenic pollutants is still statistically unclear. Here, we first used a newly developed, single-particle polarization detector and quantitatively investigate the evolution of the polarization property of backscattering light reflected from dust particle as they were mixing with anthropogenic pollutants in North China. The decrease in observed depolarization ratio is mainly attributed to the decrease of aspect ratio of the dust particles as a result of continuous coating processes. Hygroscopic growth of Calcium nitrate (Ca(NO3)2) on the surface of the dust particles played a vital role, particularly when they are stagnant in the polluted region with high RH conditions. Reliable statistics highlight the significant importance of internally mixed, `quasi-spherical' Asian dust particles, which markedly act as cloud condensation nuclei and exert regional climate change.

Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

Science.gov (United States)

Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2013-04-01

Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.

Science.gov (United States)

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-04-26

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change.

Effective and responsible teaching of climate change in Earth Science-related disciplines

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Z. P.; Greenhough, B. J.

2009-04-01

Climate change is a core topic within Earth Science-related courses. This vast topic covers a wide array of different aspects that could be covered, from past climatic change across a vast range of scales to environmental (and social and economic) impacts of future climatic change and strategies for reducing anthropogenic climate change. The Earth Science disciplines play a crucial role in our understanding of past, present and future climate change and the Earth system in addition to understanding leading to development of strategies and technological solutions to achieve sustainability. However, an increased knowledge of the occurrence and causes of past (natural) climate changes can lead to a lessened concern and sense of urgency and responsibility amongst students in relation to anthropogenic causes of climatic change. Two concepts integral to the teaching of climate change are those of scientific uncertainty and complexity, yet an emphasis on these concepts can lead to scepticism about future predictions and a further loss of sense of urgency. The requirement to understand the nature of scientific uncertainty and think and move between different scales in particular relating an increased knowledge of longer timescale climatic change to recent (industrialised) climate change, are clearly areas of troublesome knowledge that affect students' sense of responsibility towards their role in achieving a sustainable society. Study of the attitudes of university students in a UK HE institution on a range of Earth Science-related programmes highlights a range of different attitudes in the student body towards the subject of climate change. Students express varied amounts of ‘climate change saturation' resulting from both media and curriculum coverage, a range of views relating to the significance of humans to the global climate and a range of opinions about the relevance of environmental citizenship to their degree programme. Climate change is therefore a challenging

Anthropogenic contribution to cloud condensation nuclei and the first aerosol indirect climate effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Fangqun; Ma Xiaoyan; Luo Gan

2013-01-01

Atmospheric particles influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The first aerosol indirect radiative forcing (FAIRF) constitutes the largest uncertainty among the radiative forcings quantified by the latest IPCC report (IPCC2007) and is a major source of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Here, we investigate the anthropogenic contribution to CCN and associated FAIRF using a state-of-the-art global chemical transport and aerosol model (GEOS-Chem/APM) that contains a number of advanced features (including sectional particle microphysics, online comprehensive chemistry, consideration of all major aerosol species, online aerosol–cloud–radiation calculation, and usage of more accurate assimilated meteorology). The model captures the absolute values and spatial distributions of CCN concentrations measured in situ around the globe. We show that anthropogenic emissions increase the global mean CCN in the lower troposphere by ∼60–80% and cloud droplet number concentration by ∼40%. The global mean FAIRF based on GEOS-Chem/APM is −0.75 W m −2 , close to the median values of both IPCC2007 and post-IPCC2007 studies. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that a global sectional aerosol model with full online chemistry and considering all major aerosol species (including nitrate, ammonium, and second organic aerosols) has been used used to calculate FAIRF. (letter)

Northern peatlands in global climatic change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

1996-12-31

Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

Climate change impacts on runoff and hydropower in the Nordic countries. Final report from the project 'Climate change and energy production'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roar Saelthun, N.; Aittoniemi, P.; Bergstroem, S.

1998-01-01

The Nordic research program 'Climate change and energy production' has been carried out in co-operation between the Nordic hydrological services and the Nordic hydroelectric power industry with funding from the Nordic Council of Ministers and participating institutions. The program has been running for the period 1991-1996. The main objective of the research program was to analyse the effects of a future global climate change on the Nordic system for hydroelectric power production due to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The main parts of the program have been: A. Testing and improvements of hydrological models, with special emphasis on evapotranspiration, snow melt and glacier mass balance submodels. B. Assessment of the capability of existing energy planning models to analyse climate change impacts. C. Establishment of state-of-art scenarios for meteorological variables. Estimation of runoff scenarios. D. Analysis of climate change impacts on electricity consumption. E. Analysis of impacts on the hydropower systems, on national and regional scale, including effects on floods and dam safety issues. F. Analysis of climatic variability and climatic trends of hydrological records, including annual, seasonal and extreme values. (au) 171 refs

Answers to arguments of those who doubt of the reality of an anthropogenic climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petit, Michel

2010-01-01

The author aims at answering the arguments stated by climate sceptics who deny the existence of a climate change due to human activities. He addresses and discusses the understanding of climate and its modelling and answers to the following statements made by climate sceptics: climatology is a new science still in its infancy; factors which influence climate remain largely unknown, climate models predict the future by using past observations; the role of water vapour is ignored whereas it is essential; nothing proves that atmosphere composition changes are related to human activities; variations in solar radiations have a more important role than atmosphere composition. In the same way, the author answers statements related to the consequences of climate changes (sea level rise is not significant; ice melt does not result in sea level rise; the Earth has experienced much higher temperatures in the past without major damages), or related to the existence of a recent climate change (the notion of average temperature is meaningless; temperature has been increasing since the beginning of the century), or related to the difference between climatology and meteorology (it's an illusion to predict the climate within a century whereas it's impossible to make weather forecasts for next month; how can we believe in global warming when winter has been long and cold), and finally regarding the IPCC (the scientific consensus of the IPCC reports makes no sense; IPCC is a closed lobby for well paid international public servants; and so on.)

News coverage of climate change in Nature News and ScienceNOW during 2007

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Kristian Hvidtfelt; Kjærgaard, Rikke Schmidt

2011-01-01

of appreciating climate change, its severe consequences, and its anthropogenic causes. During that year the two journals’ online news services Nature News and ScienceNOW framed climate change to fit particular agendas resulting in markedly different narratives. This article demonstrates that Nature News reported...... more critically on political decisions, scientific results, and social matters of climate change compared to ScienceNOW. Operating under different institutional constraints ScienceNOW generally took a more cautious line. The evidence drawn from both textual and visual analyses shows that news sections...

The Climate Change Learning Curve

OpenAIRE

Andrew J. Leach

2004-01-01

The key element in the tension between those who believe climate change is an issue and those who do not is essentially the question of whether we are merely in a long period of shock-induced above average temperatures or if we have led to this increase in temperatures by anthropogenic carbon emissions. The model proposed in this paper allows for a model in which we weigh observations on temperature against the potential that these are generated by a combination of uncertain parameters; namel...

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

2015-10-01

The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

Representing climate change on public service television: A case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Debrett, Mary

2017-05-01

Publicly funded broadcasters with a track record in science programming would appear ideally placed to represent climate change to the lay public. Free from the constraints of vested interests and the economic imperative, public service providers are better equipped to represent the scientific, social and economic aspects of climate change than commercial media, where ownership conglomeration, corporate lobbyists and online competition have driven increasingly tabloid coverage with an emphasis on controversy. This prime-time snapshot of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's main television channel explores how the structural/rhetorical conventions of three established public service genres - a science programme, a documentary and a live public affairs talk show - impact on the representation of anthropogenic climate change. The study findings note implications for public trust, and discuss possibilities for innovation in the interests of better public understanding of climate change.

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Moore, J. K.; Hoffman, F. M.; Mahowald, N. M.; Doney, S. C.

2015-06-01

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.

Dynamics in Protected Areas and Domesticated Landscapes Caused by Climate Change and Anthropogenic Use

Science.gov (United States)

Hartter, J.; Ryan, S.; Stampone, M.; Chapman, C.

2009-12-01

Climate change, a key factor of concern for conservation, has important biological and social implications. Africa’s Albertine Rift is an area of extremely high endemic biodiversity and is classed as a world conservation priority. However, natural areas are represented by a chain of protected forest areas in a matrix of intensive smallholder agriculture and dense human settlements. Kibale National Park in western Uganda has become an island of forest surrounded by intensive small-scale agriculture and is the only remaining large area of mid-altitude forest remaining in Albertine Rift Region and East Africa. Increased temperature and precipitation over recent decades has been observed by scientists and local farmers, however, to date, rigorous analysis of local climate data and the impact of climate change on local resources does not exist. Moreover, local farmers report that some crops die or ripen too early because of increased precipitation. Conservation biologists and park managers are concerned that changes in tree phenology and primary productivity will alter wildlife feeding preferences and ranges leading to more human-wildlife conflict. Understanding the impact of local and regional climate change and variation within the social, conservation, and geographic context is necessary to construct informed management plans and to maintain positive park-people relationships. This paper describes our first attempt to fully integrate multiple temporal and spatial datasets, and our progress in developing an interdisciplinary framework to study social and ecological relationships in the Kibale landscape. We examine historical in situ climate data and proxy climate information derived from remotely sensed satellite-borne imagery in our preliminary analyses. Our goal is to link these data with both pre-existing imagery analyses and tree community composition and phenology data from 39 years of ongoing research to identify the pattern, trajectory, and drivers of local

The adaptation of coral reefs to climate change: Is the Red Queen being outpaced?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Coral reefs have enormous value in terms of biodiversity and the ecosystem goods and services that they provide to hundreds of millions of people around the world. These important ecosystems are facing rapidly increasing pressure from climate change, particularly ocean warming and acidification. A centrally important question is whether reef-building corals and the ecosystems they build will be able to acclimate, adapt, or migrate in response to rapid anthropogenic climate change. This issue is explored in the context of the current environmental change, which is largely unprecedented in rate and scale and which are exceeding the capacity of coral reef ecosystems to maintain their contribution to human well-being through evolutionary and ecological processes. On the balance of evidence, the ‘Red Queen’ (an analogy previously used by evolutionary biologists is clearly being ‘left in the dust’ with evolutionary processes that are largely unable to maintain the status quo of coral reef ecosystems under the current high rates of anthropogenic climate change.

Climate Change Education: Student Media Production to Educate and Engage

Science.gov (United States)

Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Brisk, A. A.; Ledley, T. S.; Shuldman, M.

2011-12-01

-depth scientific information to the broader public, we have found that they can be successful in conveying some of the key, basic concepts needed to understand anthropogenic climate change. Some of these concepts include the causal relationships between fossil fuel-based energy systems, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and climate change; the distinction between natural and anthropogenic processes in the carbon cycle; impacts of climate change on ecosystem services; and transitioning to renewable energy systems that do not emit carbon dioxide is necessary to avert 'dangerous' climate change.

Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...... to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....

Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olesen, Jørgen E; Trnka, M; Kersebaum, K C

2011-01-01

The studies on anthropogenic climate change performed in the last decade over Europe show consistent projections of increases in temperature and different patterns of precipitation with widespread increases in northern Europe and decreases over parts of southern and eastern Europe. In many...... countries and in recent years there is a tendency towards cereal grain yield stagnation and increased yield variability. Some of these trends may have been influenced by the recent climatic changes over Europe. A set of qualitative and quantitative questionnaires on perceived risks and foreseen impacts...... of climate and climate change on agriculture in Europe was distributed to agro-climatic and agronomy experts in 26 countries. Europe was divided into 13 Environmental Zones (EZ). In total, we had 50 individual responses for specific EZ. The questionnaires provided both country and EZ specific information...

Climate change, food, water and population health in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Shilu; Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D

2016-10-01

Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.

Modeling the prospects for climatic change: current state-of-the-art and implications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kellogg, W. M.

1980-04-04

It has been increasingly suggested that the world's climate is going to change in the next several decades, primarily as a result of anthropogenic perturbations to the global carbon cycle brought about by fossil fuel burning and large-scale deforestation. In order to cope with these future climatic changes, it is necessary that tools be developed to predict how complex systems respond to a given change of conditions. This report summarizes the status of our ability to model the planetary system that determines the climate. (ACR)

Considering Students' Out-of-School Lives and Values in Designing Learning Environments for Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, E.; Tsurusaki, B.

2012-12-01

What are the implications of social controversy for the teaching and learning of climate change science? How do the political dimensions of this controversy affect learners' attitudes towards and reasoning about climate change and climate science? Case studies from a pilot enactment of an ecological impacts of climate change curriculum explore these questions by describing how five high school students' understandings of climate change science developed at the intersection of political and scientific values, attitudes, and ways of knowing. Case studies combine qualitative, ethnographic methods including interviews and classroom video observations with quantitative pre/post-assessments of student conceptual understandings and weekly surveys of student engagement. Data indicate that students had initial perceptions of climate change informed by the media and their families—both supporting and rejecting the scientific consensus—that influenced how they engaged with the scientific evidence. While students who were initially antagonistic to anthropogenic climate change did develop conceptual understandings of the scientific evidence for human-influences on climate change, this work was challenging and at times frustrating for them. These case studies demonstrate the wide range of initial attitudes and understandings that students bring to the study of climate change. They also demonstrate that it is possible to make significant shifts in students' understandings of climate change science, even in students who were initially resistant to the idea of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, multiple case studies discuss ways that the learning that occurred in the classroom crossed out of the classroom into the students' homes and family talk. This work highlights how learners' pathways are shaped not only by their developing understanding of the scientific evidence but also by the political and social influences that learners navigate across the contexts of their lives

Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Greaver, T.L.; Clark, C.M.; Compton, J.E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C.P.; Band, L.E.; Baron, Jill S.; Davidson, E.A.; Tague, C.L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J.A.; Herrick, J.D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C.L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

2016-01-01

Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

The influence of climatic and anthropogenic factors on hydrological regime of rivers at the south of Krasnoyarsk Krai

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. A. Burenia

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Despite a large number of publications covering various aspects of the influence of climatic factors on runoff, this direction in hydrological research acquires a new meaning in connection with the increase in anthropogenic pressure on river systems. In order to identify regional and local features of the hydrological regime of the rivers in Sayan mountain region, the spatial and temporal dynamics of runoff of the main rivers in the study area were analyzed; the analysis of river flow trends against the backdrop of climate change and forest management in the drain areas was performed. Studies have shown that the revealed trends in the annual runoff of the studied rivers differ in type and in magnitude. The hydrological regime of the rivers with the negative trend of annual runoff is determined by the general nature of the humidification of the territory, which overrides the influence of all other factors. Despite a general trend of decreasing precipitation, the positive trend of annual runoff is due to a decrease in evaporation in the drainage areas, which depends both on the temperature regime of the research area and on the anthropogenic transformation of forest vegetation under logging impact. In spite of the considerable variability of annual river flow, trends in runoff coefficients for study rivers vary slightly, indicating the relative stability in water availability. This is due to cumulative effect of anthropogenic transformation of forest vegetation in the drainage areas, i.e. new felling, regeneration on logging sites and creating forest crops. Obtained results show that at the regional level in conditions of anthropogenic pressure on the forests in the drainage areas of medium and small rivers, the trends of climatic parameters, in particular precipitation, are offset by the forest harvesting and subsequent reforestation dynamics at clear cuts.

Was Anthropogenic Climate Change Falsifiable in 1925? : Reflection on the Scientific Attitude

OpenAIRE

Bouleau, Nicolas

2007-01-01

In 1925, a French astronomer J. Mascart achieved the gigantic work of studying more than three thousand publications in order to sum up the available knowledge about the climate variability. He published his analysis and conclusions in a book. We base on this work to tackle anew some epistemological problems. In particular we weigh up the relevance of the popperian doctrine in the case of climate change. As eventually seen, the strict framework of falsifiability does not practically operate a...

Climate change and the Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

2008-01-01

Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An a...

An overview of some concepts, potentials, issues, and realities of assisted migration for climate change adaptation in forests

Science.gov (United States)

Louis R. Iverson; Matthew P. Peters; Stephen Matthews; Anantha. Prasad

2013-01-01

The climate has always been changing, but the rapid rate of climate change, as projected by the IPCC (2007) will likely place unique stresses on plant communities. In addition, anthropogenic barriers (e.g., fragmented land use) present a significant modern constraint that will limit the ability of species migration in responses to a changing climate. As such, managers...

A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shevliakova, E.; Dowlatabadi, H.

1994-01-01

Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect this approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucas B. Fortini

2017-07-01

Full Text Available For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also found other (but not all anthropogenic threats are also similarly associated with more threats. Our findings serve as a reminder that ecological research should seriously consider these potential threat interactions, especially for species under elevated conservation concern.

Interactive Effects of Nitrogen and Climate Change on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, E. M.; Bowman, W. D.; Clark, C. M.; Compton, J. E.; Pardo, L. H.; Soong, J.

2011-12-01

Biodiversity has been described as the diversity of life on earth within species, between species and in ecosystems. Biodiversity contributes to regulating ecosystem services like climate, flood, disease, and water quality regulation. Biodiversity also supports and sustains ecosystem services that provide material goods like food, fiber, fuel, timber and water, and to non-material benefits like educational, recreational, spiritual, and aesthetic ecosystem services. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment estimated that the rate of biodiversity loss due to human activity in the last 50 years has been more rapid than at any other time in human history, and that many of the drivers of biodiversity loss are increasing. The strongest drivers of biodiversity loss include habitat loss, overexploitation, invasive species, climate change, and pollution, including pollution from reactive nitrogen. Of these stressors, climate change and reactive nitrogen from anthropogenic activities are causing some of the most rapid changes. Climate change is causing warming trends that result in consistent patterns of poleward and elevational range shifts of flora and fauna, causing changes in biodiversity. Warming has also resulted in changes in phenology, particularly the earlier onset of spring events, migration, and lengthening of the growing season, disrupting predator-prey and plant-pollinator interactions. In addition to warming, elevated carbon dioxide by itself can affect biodiversity by influencing plant growth, soil water, tissue stoichiometry, and trophic interactions. Nitrogen enrichment also impacts ecosystems and biodiversity in a variety of ways. Nitrogen enhances plant growth, but has been shown to favor invasive, fast-growing species over native species adapted to low nitrogen conditions. Although there have been a limited number of empirical studies on climate change and nitrogen interactions, inferences can be drawn from observed responses to each stressor by itself. For

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

2013-07-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer

2016-08-11

Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

Teaching Climate Change to Future Teachers Using 'Real' Data: Challenges and Opportunities (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Petcovic, H. L.; Barone, S.; Fulford, J.

2013-12-01

A climate-literate public is essential to resolving pressing problems related to global change. Future elementary teachers are a critical audience in climate and climate change education, as they will introduce children in early grades (USA grades K-8, children ages 5-14) to fundamentals of the climate system, natural and anthropogenic drivers of climate change, and impacts of global change on human and natural systems. Here we describe challenges we have encountered in teaching topics of the carbon cycle, greenhouse gases, past climate, recent anthropogenic change, and carbon footprints to future elementary teachers. We also describe how we have met (to varying degrees of success) these challenges in an introductory earth science course that is specifically designed for this audience. Two prominent challenges we have encountered are: the complex nature of the scientific content of climate change, and robust misconceptions held by our students about these topics. To address the first challenge, we attempt to adjust the scientific content to a level appropriate for future K-8 teachers, without sacrificing too much accuracy or critical detail. To address the second challenge, we explicitly discuss alternate conceptions of each topic. The use of authentic data sets can also address both of these challenges. Yet incorporating 'real' climate and paleoclimate data into the classroom poses still an additional challenge of instructional design. We use a variety of teaching approaches in our laboratory-based course including student-designed experiments, computer simulations, physical models, and authentic data sets. We have found that students strongly prefer the physical models and experiments, because these are 'hands-on' and perceived as easily adaptable to the K-8 classroom. Students often express dislike for activities that use authentic data sets (for example, an activity using graphs of CO2 and methane concentrations in Vostok ice cores), in particular because they

A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves

Science.gov (United States)

D.R. Magness; J.M. Morton; F. Huettmann; F.S. Chapin; A.D. McGuire

2011-01-01

Rapid climate change, in conjunction with other anthropogenic drivers, has the potential to cause mass species extinction. To minimize this risk, conservation reserves need to be coordinated at multiple spatial scales because the climate envelopes of many species may shift rapidly across large geographic areas. In addition, novel species assemblages and ecological...

Does it matter if people think climate change is human caused?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joel Hartter

2018-04-01

Full Text Available There is a growing consensus that climate is changing, but beliefs about the causal factors vary widely among the general public. Current research shows that such causal beliefs are strongly influenced by cultural, political, and identity-driven views. We examined the influence that local perceptions have on the acceptance of basic facts about climate change. We also examined the connection to wildfire by local people. Two recent telephone surveys found that 37% (in 2011 and 46% (in 2014 of eastern Oregon (USA respondents accept the scientific consensus that human activities are now changing the climate. Although most do not agree with that consensus, large majorities (85–86% do agree that climate is changing, whether by natural or human causes. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change generally divides along political party lines, but acceptance of climate change more generally, and concerns about wildfire, transcend political divisions. Support for active forest management to reduce wildfire risks is strong in this region, and restoration treatments could be critical to the resilience of both communities and ecosystems. Although these immediate steps involve adaptations to a changing climate, they can be motivated without necessarily invoking human-caused climate change, a divisive concept among local landowners. Keywords: Climate change, Inland West, Public perception, Telephone survey, Wildfire, Working landscapes

What is motivating middle-school science teachers to teach climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

McNeal, Peggy; Petcovic, Heather; Reeves, Patricia

2017-05-01

Adoption of science content standards that include anthropogenic climate change has prompted widespread instruction in climate change for the first time. However, the controversial nature of the topic can be daunting and many teachers share misconceptions that lead to weak treatment of climate change in classrooms. Nevertheless, numerous teachers have embraced the topic and are providing illustrations of deliberate climate change education. In this study we investigated teacher motivation using focus groups with middle school teachers who currently teach climate change. Qualitative analysis of the collective teacher voices yielded underlying motivations. Our findings suggest that these teachers' interest in environmentalism naturally translates to climate change advocacy and motivates teaching the topic. Their knowledge and expertise gives them confidence to teach it. These teachers see themselves as scientists, therefore their views align with the scientific consensus. They practice authentic scientific research with their students, thus confirming valued characteristics of their scientist identity. Finally, our findings suggest that teaching climate change gives these teachers a sense of hope as they impact the future through their students. This study contrasts with skepticism over the state of climate change education and contributes to an understanding of how climate change education is motivated in teachers.

Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

2014-12-01

The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (Hdecreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the

Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, Felicity; Sabel, Clive E.; Morton, Katherine; Hiscock, Rosemary; Depledge, Michael H.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Incorporates wellbeing into understandings of climate change impacts on health. • Considers a range of secondary impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. • Examines co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for health and wellbeing. • Emphasises the spatially and socially differentiated repercussions of adaptation and mitigation measures. - Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors

Mitigating cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems impacted by climate change and anthropogenic nutrients.

Science.gov (United States)

Paerl, Hans W; Gardner, Wayne S; Havens, Karl E; Joyner, Alan R; McCarthy, Mark J; Newell, Silvia E; Qin, Boqiang; Scott, J Thad

2016-04-01

Mitigating the global expansion of cyanobacterial harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) is a major challenge facing researchers and resource managers. A variety of traditional (e.g., nutrient load reduction) and experimental (e.g., artificial mixing and flushing, omnivorous fish removal) approaches have been used to reduce bloom occurrences. Managers now face the additional effects of climate change on watershed hydrologic and nutrient loading dynamics, lake and estuary temperature, mixing regime, internal nutrient dynamics, and other factors. Those changes favor CyanoHABs over other phytoplankton and could influence the efficacy of control measures. Virtually all mitigation strategies are influenced by climate changes, which may require setting new nutrient input reduction targets and establishing nutrient-bloom thresholds for impacted waters. Physical-forcing mitigation techniques, such as flushing and artificial mixing, will need adjustments to deal with the ramifications of climate change. Here, we examine the suite of current mitigation strategies and the potential options for adapting and optimizing them in a world facing increasing human population pressure and climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do environmental and climate change issues threaten sustainable development?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mesarovic, M.

2002-01-01

The atmospheric environment is presently under threat from anthropogenic emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases to the extent that irreversible changes to the climate, the ozone layer and the quality of the air could occur. While the required changes in practice and regulations may hit economies if the induced costs are to be internalised, the impact of ignoring these requirements might even threaten the concept of sustainable development. The prospects of environmental pollution, depletion of ozone layer and climate change due to human activities have sparked a variety of controversies on many fronts. These topics are discussed with respect to the imposed threats to the sustainable development, and with particular attention paid to delays in urgent emission reductions. (author)

Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: A review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Willems, P.; Olsson, J.

2013-01-01

A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of...... drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future. © IWA Publishing 2013....

Multidecadal change in streamflow associated with anthropogenic disturbances in the tropical Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

2015-10-01

Andean headwater catchments are an important source of freshwater for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes in these catchments. In this paper, we assess change in streamflow based on long time series of hydrometeorological data (1974-2008) and land cover reconstructions (1963-2009) in the Pangor catchment (282 km2) located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished during the period 1963-2009: (1) expansion of agricultural land by an area equal to 14 % of the catchment area (or 39 km2) in 46 years' time, (2) deforestation of native forests by 11 % (or -31 km2) corresponding to a mean rate of 67 ha yr-1, and (3) afforestation with exotic species in recent years by about 5 % (or 15 km2). Over the time period 1963-2009, about 50 % of the 64 km2 of native forests was cleared and converted to agricultural land. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow, which exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term change in precipitation but very likely result from anthropogenic disturbances associated with land cover change.

Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keppel, G.; Niel, Van K.P.; Wardell-Johnson, G.W.; Yates, C.J.; Byrne, M.; Mucina, L.; Schut, A.G.T.; Hopper, S.D.; Franklin, S.E.

2012-01-01

Aim Identifying and protecting refugia is a priority for conservation under projected anthropogenic climate change, because of their demonstrated ability to facilitate the survival of biota under adverse conditions. Refugia are habitats that components of biodiversity retreat to, persist in and can

Free Markets, Property Rights and Climate Change: How to Privatize Climate Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Graham Dawson

2011-04-01

Full Text Available The goal has been to devise a strategy that protects as much as possible the rights and liberties of all agents, both users of fossil fuels and people whose livelihoods and territories are at risk if the anthropogenic global warming (AGW hypothesis is true. To achieve this goal the standard climate policy instruments, taxes and emissions trading, should be discontinued. There are weaknesses in the theoretical perspectives used to justify these policy instruments and climate science cannot provide the knowledge that would be needed to justify their implementation. In their place I propose a privatised policy, based on Austrian and libertarian frameworks of thought, which share an interpretation of climate change as a putative interpersonal conflict rather than market failure. The use of fossil fuels, like any other economic activity, should be subject to side-constraints designed to avoid the infringement of other people’s property rights. Tort litigation on the basis of strict liability would protect these rights, insofar as they need protecting. By providing a public arena for the competitive testing of scientific hypotheses concerning climate change, such litigation would also promote the public understanding and even the advancement of climate science.

Climate change trends and environmental impacts in the Makonde Communal Lands, Zimbabwe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ishumael Sango

2015-07-01

Full Text Available During the last century, climate has increasingly become variable and changeable, with significant deviations from the observed normal averages, which often leads to disruptive consequences to ecosystems and livelihoods. Climate change induced environmental challenges are viewed to be particularly severe to economically challenged tropical societies including the Zimbabwean rural communities. We sought to determine local level climate change trends and associated biophysical implications in the Makonde Communal Lands of Zimbabwe. Our findings suggest that there has been significant climate change in the Makonde Communal Lands since 1962. The climate change observed has induced the deterioration of ecosystem productivity, diversity and services, to the detriment of human livelihoods. We provide insights into how to better understand local level dynamics between climate change and local ecosystem goods and services as the basis of livelihood in marginalised rural communities. Among the key reasons for concern about impacts of anthropogenic activities on climate is the fact that changing climate has direct impacts on the biophysical world, which in turn is a vital asset for human livelihoods, economies and general well-being.

Improving Climate Change Communication Skills through Community Outreach

Science.gov (United States)

Hanrahan, J.

2015-12-01

While many undergraduate Atmospheric Science departments are expanding their curriculums to focus on the science of climate change, often overlooked is the need to educate students about how this topic can be effectively communicated to others. It has become increasingly difficult for young scientists to comfortably discuss this polarizing topic with people outside of the classroom. To address this, Atmospheric Science faculty at Lyndon State College are providing undergraduate students the opportunity to practice this important skill by reaching out to the local community. Over the past year, students have been meeting regularly to discuss climate change and its impacts, and to present this information to the general public at local schools and organizations. The group was organized with the primary goal of teaching undergraduate students about effective ways to communicate basic climate science to nonscientists, but to also improve public understanding of anthropogenic climate change while starting a conversation among young people in the community. We will identify lessons learned after one year, discuss effective strategies, and summarize student feedback.

Boreal mire carbon exchange: sensitivity to climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen and sulfur deposition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eriksson, Tobias

2010-07-01

Boreal peatlands are important long-term sinks of atmospheric carbon and in the same time the largest natural source of methane to the atmosphere. A changing climate as well as deposition of anthropogenically derived pollutants, such as nitrogen and sulfur, has the potential to affect the processes that control the carbon exchange in peatlands. Many of the biogeochemical responses to changed environmental conditions, such as changed plant community composition, are slow and therefore long-term studies are required. In this thesis I have investigated the long-term effects of nitrogen addition, sulfur addition and greenhouse enclosures on carbon exchange by using a field manipulation experiment in a boreal minerogenic, oligotrophic mire after 10-12 years of treatment. Treatment effects on CH{sub 4} emissions, gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were estimated from 1-2 seasons of chamber flux measurements. Treatment effects on potential CH{sub 4} production and oxidation were estimated in incubations of peat from different depth intervals. The effect of nitrogen deposition on carbon accumulation was evaluated in peat cores at different depth intervals. The long-term nitrogen additions have: shifted plant community composition from being dominated by Sphagnum to being dominated by sedges and dwarf shrubs; changed mire surface microtopography so that mean water table is closer to the surface in plots with high nitrogen; increased CH{sub 4} production and emission; increased Reco slightly but have not affected GPP or NEE; reduced the peat height increment, but increased both peat bulk density and carbon content, leading to an unchanged carbon accumulation. The long-term sulfur additions have not reduced CH{sub 4} emissions, only slightly reduced CH{sub 4} production and did not have any effect on the CO{sub 2} carbon exchange. The greenhouse treatment, manifested in increased air and soil temperatures, reduced

Climate Change Denial Books and Conservative Think Tanks

Science.gov (United States)

Jacques, Peter J.

2013-01-01

The conservative movement and especially its think tanks play a critical role in denying the reality and significance of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), especially by manufacturing uncertainty over climate science. Books denying AGW are a crucial means of attacking climate science and scientists, and we examine the links between conservative think tanks (CTTs) and 108 climate change denial books published through 2010. We find a strong link, albeit noticeably weaker for the growing number of self-published denial books. We also examine the national origins of the books and the academic backgrounds of their authors or editors, finding that with the help of American CTTs climate change denial has spread to several other nations and that an increasing portion of denial books are produced by individuals with no scientific training. It appears that at least 90% of denial books do not undergo peer review, allowing authors or editors to recycle scientifically unfounded claims that are then amplified by the conservative movement, media, and political elites. PMID:24098056

Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pauline M. Ross

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

Climate change and intertidal wetlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Pauline M; Adam, Paul

2013-03-19

Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause-the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the "squeeze" experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

Climate change convention

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, D.

1992-01-01

Principles that guide Canada's Green Plan with respect to global warming are outlined. These include respect for nature, meeting environmental goals in an economically beneficial manner, efficient use of resources, shared responsibilities, federal leadership, and informed decision making. The policy side of the international Framework Convention on Climate Change is then discussed and related to the Green Plan. The Convention has been signed by 154 nations and has the long-term objective of stabilizing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Some of the Convention's commitments toward achieving that objective are only applicable to the developed countries. Five general areas of commitment are emissions reductions, assistance to developing countries, reporting requirements, scientific and socioeconomic research, and education. The most controversial area is that of limiting emissions. The Convention has strong measures for public accountability and is open to future revisions. Canada's Green Plan represents one country's response to the Convention commitments, including a national goal to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level by the year 2000

Getting The Picture: Our Changing Climate- A new learning tool for climate science

Science.gov (United States)

Yager, K.; Balog, J. D.

2014-12-01

Earth Vision Trust (EVT), founded by James Balog- photographer and scientist, has developed a free, online, multimedia climate science education tool for students and educators. Getting The Picture (GTP) creates a new learning experience, drawing upon powerful archives of Extreme Ice Survey's unique photographs and time-lapse videos of changing glaciers around the world. GTP combines the latest in climate science through interactive tools that make the basic scientific tenets of climate science accessible and easy to understand. The aim is to use a multidisciplinary approach to encourage critical thinking about the way our planet is changing due to anthropogenic activities, and to inspire students to find their own voice regarding our changing climate The essence of this resource is storytelling through the use of inspiring images, field expedition notes and dynamic multimedia tools. EVT presents climate education in a new light, illustrating the complex interaction between humans and nature through their Art + Science approach. The overarching goal is to educate and empower young people to take personal action. GTP is aligned with national educational and science standards (NGSS, CCSS, Climate Literacy) so it may be used in conventional classrooms as well as education centers, museum kiosks or anywhere with Internet access. Getting The Picture extends far beyond traditional learning to provide an engaging experience for students, educators and all those who wish to explore the latest in climate science.

The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Yao; Shen, Zehao; Peng, Shushi; Li, Junsheng; Zhou, Liping; Liu, Hongyan; Ma, Yuecun; Ding, Yihui; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Liu, Chunzhen; Tan, Kun; Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Tianyi; Fang, Jingyun

2010-09-02

China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.

Debunking Climate Change Myths in the College Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Bedford, D. P.

2012-12-01

Research in sociology (e.g. Hamilton, 2011) and social psychology (e.g. Kahan et al., 2012) suggests that there is no basis to an assumption common among educators that higher education levels lead to more rational decision making. Indeed, there is growing evidence that views on climate change, for just one significant example, become more polarized at higher education levels, rather than converging on the scientific consensus. Some research points to improved facility at filtering information according to preconceptions at higher education levels as a possible explanation for this phenomenon. Misinformation about subjects that are perceived to be contentious, such as anthropogenic climate change, is therefore potentially easily accepted despite-- or even because of-- higher levels of education. Thus, explicitly addressing misinformation about climate change may be an important strategy for use in the classroom. Fortunately, misinformation provides a valuable opportunity to turn a challenging situation to educational advantage and, in effect, make lemonade out of lemons. This presentation provides a case study of efforts explicitly to debunk climate change myths in the college classroom. The approach outlined here utilizes material on the psychology of the acceptance of misinformation for the popular audience, combined with examples of misinformation itself. Qualitative assessment of the effectiveness of these efforts is also presented. Hamilton, L. 2011. Education, political and opinions about climate change: evidence for interaction effects. Climatic Change vol. 104 no. 2, 231-242.. Kahan, D.M., E. Peters, M. Wittlin, P. Slovic, L. Larrimore Ouellette, D. Braman and G. Mandel. 2012. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

The detection of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect

Science.gov (United States)

Schiffer, Robert A.; Unninayar, Sushel

1991-01-01

The greenhouse effect is accepted as an undisputed fact from both theoretical and observational considerations. In Earth's atmosphere, the primary greenhouse gas is water vapor. The specific concern today is that increasing concentrations of anthropogenically introduced greenhouse gases will, sooner or later, irreversibly alter the climate of Earth. Detecting climate change has been complicated by uncertainties in historical observations and measurements. Thus, the primary concern for the GEDEX project is how can climate change and enhanced greenhouse effects be unambiguously detected and quantified. Specifically examined are the areas of: Earth surface temperature; the free atmosphere (850 millibars and above); space-based measurements; measurement uncertainties; and modeling the observed temperature record.

The detection of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schiffer, R.A.; Unninayar, S.

1991-01-01

The greenhouse effect is accepted as an undisputed fact from both theoretical and observational considerations. In Earth's atmosphere, the primary greenhouse gas is water vapor. The specific concern today is that increasing concentrations of anthropogenically introduced greenhouse gases will, sooner or later, irreversibly alter the climate of Earth. Detecting climate change has been complicated by uncertainties in historical observations and measurements. Thus, the primary concern for the GEDEX project is how can climate change and enhanced greenhouse effects be unambiguously detected and quantified. Specifically examined are the areas of: Earth surface temperature; the free atmosphere (850 millibars and above); space-based measurements; measurement uncertainties; and modeling the observed temperature record

A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P.

2016-10-01

In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P

2016-10-20

In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Fangxing; Dong, Buwen; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan

2018-02-01

Since the mid-1990s precipitation trends over eastern China display a dipole pattern, characterized by positive anomalies in the south and negative anomalies in the north, named as the Southern-Flood-Northern-Drought (SFND) pattern. This work investigates the drivers of decadal changes of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the dynamical mechanisms involved, by using a coupled climate model (specifically an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model) forced by changes in (1) anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), (2) anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and (3) the combined effects of both GHG and AA (All Forcing) between two periods across the mid-1990s. The model experiment forced by changes in All Forcing shows a dipole pattern of response in precipitation over China that is similar to the observed SFND pattern across the mid-1990s, which suggests that anthropogenic forcing changes played an important role in the observed decadal changes. Furthermore, the experiments with separate forcings indicate that GHG and AA forcing dominate different parts of the SFND pattern. In particular, changes in GHG increase precipitation over southern China, whilst changes in AA dominate in the drought conditions over northern China. Increases in GHG cause increased moisture transport convergence over eastern China, which leads to increased precipitation. The AA forcing changes weaken the EASM, which lead to divergent wind anomalies over northern China and reduced precipitation.

The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

Science.gov (United States)

Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

2015-08-01

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

2012-01-01

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

Adaptation of forest ecosystems to air pollution and climate change: a global assessment on research priorities

Science.gov (United States)

Y. Serengil; A. Augustaitis; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Nancy Grulke; A.R. Kozovitz; R. Matyssek; G. Müller-Starck; M. Schaub; G. Wieser; A.A. Coskun; E. Paoletti

2011-01-01

Climate change and air pollution are two of the anthropogenic stressors that require international collaboration. Influence mechanisms and combating strategies towards them have similarities to some extent. Impacts of air pollution and climate change have long been studied under IUFRO Research Group 7.01 and state of the art findings are presented at biannual meetings...

Climatic and anthropogenic factors changing spawning pattern and production zone of Hilsa fishery in the Bay of Bengal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Shohidullah Miah

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha Hamilton as a single species accounts 12% for more than half of the total marine catches. About 2% of the entire population of the country is directly or indirectly engaged with Hilsa fishing. Hilsa has a wide geographical distribution in Asia from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea. Particularly large stocks are found in Upper Bay of Bengal (BoB region sustained by the large river systems. The global Hilsa catch is reported 75% from Bangladesh water, 15% from Myanmar, 5% from India and 5% from other countries such as Thailand and Iran. Hilsa is a highly migratory and anadromous fish with the same migratory and same breeding behavior as that of Atlantic Salmon fish (Salmo sp.. Due to various anthropogenic activities, climate change effect, increased siltation and rising of the river basins, the migratory routes as well as spawning grounds of Hilsa are disturbed, displaced or even destroyed. During last two decades hilsa production from inland water declined about 20%, whereas marine water yield increased about 3 times. Major Hilsa to catch has been gradually shifted from inland to marine water. Hilsa fish ascend for spawning migration from sea into estuaries. It has been found that the major spawning areas have been shifted to the lower estuarine regions of Hatia, Sandwip and Bhola. At the spawning ground of Hilsa, the fishing level F=1.36 yr−1, where in the river Meghna the Fmsy=0.6 yr−1 and exploitation rate E=0.70 is (Emsy>0.5. Oceanographic changes viz. high turbidity increased flooding, more tidal action and changes of salinity etc. have accelerated the change of migration patterns of spawning, growth and its production. Hilsa fecundity ranges from 1.5 to 2.0 million eggs for fish ranging in length from 35 to 50 cm. Hilsa fecundity is declining in different areas due to climate change and the declining fecundity impacting greatly on Hilsa production. Due to shifting of the spawning ground at the lower

Global albedo change and radiative cooling from anthropogenic land cover change, 1700 to 2005 based on MODIS, land use harmonization, radiative kernels, and reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ghimire, Bardan; Williams, Christopher A.; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Wang, Zhuosen; Schaaf, Crystal; He, Tao

2014-12-01

Widespread anthropogenic land cover change over the last five centuries has influenced the global climate system through both biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Models indicate that warming from carbon emissions associated with land cover conversion has been partially offset by cooling from elevated albedo, but considerable uncertainty remains partly because of uncertainty in model treatments of albedo. This study incorporates a new spatially and temporally explicit, land cover specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product) to provide more precise, observationally derived estimates of albedo impacts from anthropogenic land cover change with a complete range of data set specific uncertainty. The mean annual global albedo increase due to land cover change during 1700-2005 was estimated as 0.00106 ± 0.00008 (mean ± standard deviation), mainly driven by snow exposure due to land cover transitions from natural vegetation to agriculture. This translates to a top-of-atmosphere radiative cooling of -0.15 ± 0.1 W m-2 (mean ± standard deviation). Our estimate was in the middle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report range of -0.05 to -0.25 W m-2 and incorporates variability in albedo within land cover classes.

Forcings and feedbacks by land ecosystem changes on climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Betts, R. A.

2006-12-01

Vegetation change is involved in climate change through both forcing and feedback processes. Emissions of CO{2} from past net deforestation are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.22 0.51 Wm - 2 to the overall 1.46 Wm - 2 radiative forcing by anthropogenic increases in CO{2} up to the year 2000. Deforestation-induced increases in global mean surface albedo are estimated to exert a radiative forcing of 0 to -0.2 Wm - 2, and dust emissions from land use may exert a radiative forcing of between approximately +0.1 and -0.2 Wm - 2. Changes in the fluxes of latent and sensible heat due to tropical deforestation are simulated to have exerted other local warming effects which cannot be quantified in terms of a Wm - 2 radiative forcing, with the potential for remote effects through changes in atmospheric circulation. With tropical deforestation continuing rapidly, radiative forcing by surface albedo change may become less useful as a measure of the forcing of climate change by changes in the physical properties of the land surface. Although net global deforestation is continuing, future scenarios used for climate change prediction suggest that fossil fuel emissions of CO{2} may continue to increase at a greater rate than land use emissions and therefore continue to increase in dominance as the main radiative forcing. The CO{2} rise may be accelerated by up to 66% by feedbacks arising from global soil carbon loss and forest dieback in Amazonia as a consequence of climate change, and Amazon forest dieback may also exert feedbacks through changes in the local water cycle and increases in dust emissions.

Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, B

2010-05-28

Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.

Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century.

Science.gov (United States)

Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S J; Botzen, Wouter J W

2017-01-01

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed.

Changes of climate regimes during the last millennium and the twenty-first century simulated by the Community Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Wei; Feng, Song; Liu, Chang; Chen, Jie; Chen, Jianhui; Chen, Fahu

2018-01-01

This study examines the shifts in terrestrial climate regimes using the Köppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification by analyzing the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulations for the period 850-2005 and CESM Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and CESM with fixed aerosols Medium Ensemble (CESM-LE_FixA) simulations for the period 1920-2080. We compare K-T climate types from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (950-1250) with the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1550-1850), from present day (PD) (1971-2000) with the last millennium (LM) (850-1850), and from the future (2050-2080) with the LM in order to place anthropogenic changes in the context of changes due to natural forcings occurring during the last millennium. For CESM-LME, we focused on the simulations with all forcings, though the impacts of individual forcings (e.g., solar activities, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases, aerosols and land use changes) were also analyzed. We found that the climate types changed slightly between the MCA and the LIA due to weak changes in temperature and precipitation. The climate type changes in PD relative to the last millennium have been largely driven by greenhouse gas-induced warming, but anthropogenic aerosols have also played an important role on regional scales. At the end of the twenty-first century, the anthropogenic forcing has a much greater effect on climate types than the PD. Following the reduction of aerosol emissions, the impact of greenhouse gases will further promote global warming in the future. Compared to precipitation, changes in climate types are dominated by greenhouse gas-induced warming. The large shift in climate types by the end of this century suggests possible wide-spread redistribution of surface vegetation and a significant change in species distributions.

Disagreements on climate change in France: stepping beyond a polarized ambience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guillemot, Helene

2014-01-01

Climate change controversies in France are often reduced to popular scientists denying human responsibility in global warming. Such polarization overshadows, however, a wide range of problems, actors and positions. In this paper, we show first that the visibility of these controversies is closely linked to the evolution of the climate issue as a public problem, which has moved through several stages over the past twenty years. The most recent period is characterized by an increase in the diversity of controversies and of 'dissonant voices'. Part of the disagreements are about climate sciences (especially climate models) and involve the recognition and stabilization of a new disciplinary field and new relationships between science and politics. Another kind of controversy concerns the domain and boundaries of climate sciences, as climate change issues reshape neighbouring scientific fields and confront different epistemic cultures. Finally, political and philosophical disagreements sparked by anthropogenic climate change go beyond the usual conflict between pro and anti- environmentalism, and also concern the very definition of the climate issue

Holocene environmental and parasequence development of the St. Jones Estuary, Delaware (USA): Foraminiferal proxies of natural climatic and anthropogenic change

Science.gov (United States)

Leorri, E.; Martin, R.; McLaughlin, P.

2006-01-01

The benthic foraminiferal record of marshes located along western Delaware Bay (St. Jones Estuary, USA) reflects the response of estuaries to sea-level and paleoclimate change during the Holocene. System tracts are recognized and within them parasequences based on sedimentological and foraminiferal assemblages identification. The parasequences defined by foraminiferal assemblages appear correlative with rapid Holocene climate changes that are of worldwide significance: 6000-5000, 4200-3800, 3500-2500, 1200-1000, and 600??cal years BP. Following postglacial sea-level rise, modern subestuaries and marshes in the region began to develop between 6000 and 4000??years BP, depending on their proximity to the mouth of Delaware Bay and coastal geomorphology. Initial sediments were fluvial in origin, with freshwater marshes established around 4000??years BP. The subsequent sea-level transgression occurred sufficiently slowly that freshwater marshes alternated with salt marshes at the same sites to around 3000??years BP. Locally another two transgressions are identified at 1800 and 1000??years BP respectively. Marine influence increased in the estuaries until 600??years BP (Little Ice Age), when regression occurred. Sea-level began to rise again during the mid-19th Century at the end of the Little Ice Age, when marshes became established. The presence of a sand lens in the upper and middle estuary and the reduction in the number of tests in the top samples in cores from the same area also suggest an anthropogenic influence. The estuary infill resulted in a sharp transgressive sequence, represented by salt marsh foraminiferal assemblages in the upper part of the cores. The increase in marsh foraminifera in both areas suggests an increase in marine influence that might be due to the transgression beginning at the end of the Little Ice Age about 150-180??years ago coupled with anthropogenic straightening of the channel in 1913. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of the nuclear power and climate change policies on different countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arzani, K.; Mirzahosseini, A.; Khanfekr, A.

2008-01-01

At present there is no binding agreement (at a global level) to address the risk of anthropogenic climate change after 2012. Disagreements abound with respect to a post-2012 climate change agreement, on issues such as economic development, policy criteria, environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, equity, dynamic flexibility, complementarity, enforceability and so on. One such disagreement is whether or not nuclear power should play a role in a post-2012 climate change agreement. This qualitative analysis explores the conditions under which nuclear power could contribute to addressing climate change in post-2012 architectures. It reveals that-given the right framework conditions - some architectures, like 'cap and trade' regimes or 'policies and measures' can improve the competitiveness of nuclear power plants, while others are unlikely to provide incentives for nuclear energy development in the short to medium term, such as adaptation and technology cooperation. Overall, the study concludes that post-2012 climate change policy should aim at providing policy flexibility without compromising technology flexibility

Climate Change and Health: Transcending Silos to Find Solutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Machalaba, Catherine; Romanelli, Cristina; Stoett, Peter; Baum, Sarah E; Bouley, Timothy A; Daszak, Peter; Karesh, William B

2015-01-01

Climate change has myriad implications for the health of humans, our ecosystems, and the ecological processes that sustain them. Projections of rising greenhouse gas emissions suggest increasing direct and indirect burden of infectious and noninfectious disease, effects on food and water security, and other societal disruptions. As the effects of climate change cannot be isolated from social and ecological determinants of disease that will mitigate or exacerbate forecasted health outcomes, multidisciplinary collaboration is critically needed. The aim of this article was to review the links between climate change and its upstream drivers (ie, processes leading to greenhouse gas emissions) and health outcomes, and identify existing opportunities to leverage more integrated global health and climate actions to prevent, prepare for, and respond to anthropogenic pressures. We conducted a literature review of current and projected health outcomes associated with climate change, drawing on findings and our collective expertise to review opportunities for adaptation and mitigation across disciplines. Health outcomes related to climate change affect a wide range of stakeholders, providing ready collaborative opportunities for interventions, which can be differentiated by addressing the upstream drivers leading to climate change or the downstream effects of climate change itself. Although health professionals are challenged with risks from climate change and its drivers, the adverse health outcomes cannot be resolved by the public health community alone. A phase change in global health is needed to move from a passive responder in partnership with other societal sectors to drive innovative alternatives. It is essential for global health to step outside of its traditional boundaries to engage with other stakeholders to develop policy and practical solutions to mitigate disease burden of climate change and its drivers; this will also yield compound benefits that help address

Climate shocks: natural and anthropogenic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kondrat'ev, K.I.

1988-01-01

The impact of multiple nuclear explosions in the earth atmosphere on global climate is explored, summarizing the results of recent theoretical modeling studies. Two natural analogs, the greenhouse effect and a major volcanic explosion, are analyzed; and particular attention is then given to data on the climatic effects of previous atmospheric tests of nuclear weapons, numerical models of these effects, and the effect of the Tunguska meteor fall of 1908 on the ozone layer and climate. It is concluded that, although the current models contain many uncertainties, multiple nuclear explosions would doubtless produce catastrophic changes, much more serious than those which would result from a doubling of the present CO 2 content. Strong temporal and spatial variabilities of climate would exclude normal life or industrial activity on the planet. 110 references

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

Science.gov (United States)

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-02-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K.

2006-01-01

The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K. [Climate Risk Pty Limited, Fairlight (Australia)

2006-07-01

The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat.

Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Climate over China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, L.; Frauenfeld, O. W.

2014-12-01

Land cover changes can influence regional climate through modifying the surface energy balance and water fluxes, and can also affect climate at large scales via changes in atmospheric general circulation. With rapid population growth and economic development, China has experienced significant land cover changes, such as deforestation, grassland degradation, and farmland expansion. In this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used to investigate the climate impacts of anthropogenic land cover changes over China. To isolate the climatic effects of land cover change, we focus on the CAM and CLM models, with prescribed climatological sea surface temperature and sea ice cover. Two experiments were performed, one with current vegetation and the other with potential vegetation. Current vegetation conditions were derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations, and potential vegetation over China was obtained from Ramankutty and Foley's global potential vegetation dataset. Impacts of land cover changes on surface air temperature and precipitation are assessed based on the difference of the two experiments. Results suggest that land cover changes have a cold-season cooling effect in a large region of China, but a warming effect in summer. These temperature changes can be reconciled with albedo forcing and evapotranspiration. Moreover, impacts on atmospheric circulation and the Asian Monsoon is also discussed.

Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative response factor approach for policymakers.

Science.gov (United States)

Avise, Jeremy; Abraham, Rodrigo Gonzalez; Chung, Serena H; Chen, Jack; Lamb, Brian; Salathé, Eric P; Zhang, Yongxin; Nolte, Christopher G; Loughlin, Daniel H; Guenther, Alex; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Duhl, Tiffany

2012-09-01

The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRF(E)), which estimates the relative change in peak ozone concentration for a given change in pollutant emissions (the subscript E is added to RRF to remind the reader that the RRF is due to emission changes only). A matrix of model simulations was conducted to examine the individual and combined effects offuture anthropogenic emissions, biogenic emissions, and climate on the RRF(E). For each member in the matrix of simulations the warmest and coolest summers were modeled for the present-day (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) decades. A climate adjustment factor (CAF(C) or CAF(CB) when biogenic emissions are allowed to change with the future climate) was defined as the ratio of the average daily maximum 8-hr ozone simulated under a future climate to that simulated under the present-day climate, and a climate-adjusted RRF(EC) was calculated (RRF(EC) = RRF(E) x CAF(C)). In general, RRF(EC) > RRF(E), which suggests additional emission controls will be required to achieve the same reduction in ozone that would have been achieved in the absence of climate change. Changes in biogenic emissions generally have a smaller impact on the RRF(E) than does future climate change itself The direction of the biogenic effect appears closely linked to organic-nitrate chemistry and whether ozone formation is limited by volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Regions that are generally NO(x) limited show a decrease in ozone and RRF(EC), while VOC-limited regions show an increase in ozone and RRF(EC). Comparing results to a previous study using different climate assumptions and models showed large variability in the CAF(CB). We present a methodology for adjusting the RRF to account for the influence of

Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

Science.gov (United States)

Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

2009-04-01

Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

Influence of anthropogenic alterations on geomorphic response to climate variations and change in San Francisco Bay-Delta and watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Florsheim, J.L.; Dettinger, M.D.

2004-01-01

Global warming and attendant sea-level rise may soon impact geomorphic processes in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River and San Francisco Bay Delta systems. During the past two centuries, dramatic anthropogenic changes in sediment supply and pervasive structural controls on rivers and floodplains have altered geomorphic responses to floods throughout a zone that extends upstream from tidally influenced areas to dams that regulate flow. Current geomorphic responses to floods differ from natural responses due to historical actions that concentrated the pre-disturbance multiple-channel and flood-basin system into single channels isolated by levees from increasingly developed floodplains and flood bypass channels, altered flow and sediment regimes, and caused subsidence of leveed Delta Islands. A review of historic and current geomorphic responses to floods illustrates the dominance of structural controls on geomorphic changes in the lowland part of the Sacramento-San Joaquin system. Current climate-change projections for CA suggest that the total volume of snowmelt runoff that may be shifted from spring and added to winter flows is roughly 5 maf/yr, similar to the volume currently available for flood storage in Sierra Nevadan reservoirs. Changes in timing of reservoir releases to accommodate these changes could add to either the magnitude or duration of winter flood peaks, each causing different geomorphic responses. Increased wintertime flows that accompany already large floods could increase overbank flood extent, erosion, and sedimentation, or alternatively increase the depth and strength of confined flows and increase the risk of levee failures. Runoff released from reservoirs as a relatively constant addition to winter baseflow would increase the duration of bankfull or possibly "levee-full" flows. This scenario could lead to bank and levee failure through increased saturation and seepage erosion. Projected sea level rise of 1-2 m would compound vulnerability of

A probabilistic view on recent and near future climate change in Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raeisaenen, Jouni; Alexandersson, Hans

2003-01-01

The decade 1 99 1-2000 was warm and wet in Sweden, with 10-station mean temperature 0.8 deg C above and 20-station mean precipitation 6% above the mean for 1961-1 99 0. Here we study the question if such changes should be seen as a symptom of anthropogenic climate change or if they might be of purely natural origin. Using the control simulations of 19 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and taking into account differences between the simulated and observed interannual variability, we estimate that the recent increase in temperature and that in precipitation had both about a 6-7% chance to occur solely as a result of natural variability. Using the corresponding simulations with increasing CO 2 , we further estimate that the anthropogenic forcing raised the probability of the observed changes to occur to 23% for the increase in temperature and to 14% for the increase in precipitation. About half of the warming and about 30% of the increase in precipitation appear to be explained by anthropogenic forcing. The seasonal aspects of observed and simulated climate change are also discussed, with special emphasis on winter, when the observed warming has been much larger than expected from the model simulations. Finally, a probabilistic forecast for the Swedish climate in the first decade of the 21st century suggests a 95% (87%) possibility of warmer (wetter) annual mean conditions than in 1961-1 99 0 on the average. One of the caveats in our analysis is that the model simulations exclude variations in solar and volcanic activity, the effects of which might not be fully covered by our rescaling of interannual variability

Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of-the-Art Review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2013-01-01

climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results...... from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series......, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e...

The influence of climate variability and change on the science and practice of restoration ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Donald A. Falk; Connie Millar

2016-01-01

Variation in Earth’s climate system has always been a primary driver of ecosystem processes and biological evolution. In recent decades, however, the prospect of anthropogenically driven change to the climate system has become an increasingly dominant concern for scientists and conservation biologists. Understanding how ecosystems may...

Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2016-01-01

We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

Quantitative analysis of oyster larval proteome provides new insights into the effects of multiple climate change stressors, supplement to: Dineshram, R; Chandramouli, K; Ko, W K Ginger; Zhang, Huoming; Qian, Pei Yuan; Ravasi, Timothy; Thiyagarajan, Vengatesen (2016): Quantitative analysis of oyster larval proteome provides new insights into the effects of multiple climate change stressors. Global Change Biology, 22(6), 2054-2068

KAUST Repository

Dineshram, R; Chandramouli, Kondethimmanahalli; Ko, W K Ginger; Zhang, Huoming; Qian, Pei Yuan; Ravasi, Timothy; Thiyagarajan, Vengatesen

2016-01-01

survival bottleneck, which will be pressured by different anthropogenically induced climate change-related variables. Therefore, it is important to understand how metamorphosing larvae interact with emerging climate change stressors. To predict how larvae

Climate change: Some elements from the scientific background and the scientific process; Klimafaglig oppdatering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alfsen, Knut H [Cicero, Oslo (Norway)

1998-07-01

The paper reviews the background on mechanisms behind climate variations in the past and man-made climate change and also briefly what is said by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) about the likely future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. The IPCC is presented in some detail. The problem of climate change is not important mainly because of increased global average temperature, but because of a potential variability and instability of the global climate and the local weather. In the past, the climate system has fluctuated strongly and rapidly for natural causes. But the stable climate regime observed after the last ice age is currently perturbed by the large outpouring of greenhouse gases from a variety of human activities. Can the stability of the current climate regime withstand this disturbance? The problem of climate change is riddled with uncertainties, and our main challenge to this situation is to find out how to respond in a rational way. 19 refs., 15 figs.

Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, D S; Mahowald, N M

2014-01-01

Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ T s ), future Δ T s through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ T s that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ T s ). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ T s from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO 2 -equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ T s evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ T s attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)

High fitness costs of climate change-induced camouflage mismatch.

Science.gov (United States)

Zimova, Marketa; Mills, L Scott; Nowak, J Joshua

2016-03-01

Anthropogenic climate change has created myriad stressors that threaten to cause local extinctions if wild populations fail to adapt to novel conditions. We studied individual and population-level fitness costs of a climate change-induced stressor: camouflage mismatch in seasonally colour molting species confronting decreasing snow cover duration. Based on field measurements of radiocollared snowshoe hares, we found strong selection on coat colour molt phenology, such that animals mismatched with the colour of their background experienced weekly survival decreases up to 7%. In the absence of adaptive response, we show that these mortality costs would result in strong population-level declines by the end of the century. However, natural selection acting on wide individual variation in molt phenology might enable evolutionary adaptation to camouflage mismatch. We conclude that evolutionary rescue will be critical for hares and other colour molting species to keep up with climate change. © 2016 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Factors Other Than Climate Change, Main Drivers of 2014/15 Water Shortage in Southeast Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; Coelho, Caio A. S.; King, Andrew; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Wada, Yoshihide; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Haarsma, Rein; Haustein, Karsten; Uhe, Peter; van Aalst, Maarten;

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhen; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-09-05

Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH 4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO 2 , CH 4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH 4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH 4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH 4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH 4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH 4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH 4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m -2 to 0.19 W·m -2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH 4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH 4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH 4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

Coccolithophore calcification response to past ocean acidification and climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Dea, Sarah A; Gibbs, Samantha J; Bown, Paul R; Young, Jeremy R; Poulton, Alex J; Newsam, Cherry; Wilson, Paul A

2014-11-17

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are forcing rapid ocean chemistry changes and causing ocean acidification (OA), which is of particular significance for calcifying organisms, including planktonic coccolithophores. Detailed analysis of coccolithophore skeletons enables comparison of calcite production in modern and fossil cells in order to investigate biomineralization response of ancient coccolithophores to climate change. Here we show that the two dominant coccolithophore taxa across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) OA global warming event (~56 million years ago) exhibited morphological response to environmental change and both showed reduced calcification rates. However, only Coccolithus pelagicus exhibits a transient thinning of coccoliths, immediately before the PETM, that may have been OA-induced. Changing coccolith thickness may affect calcite production more significantly in the dominant modern species Emiliania huxleyi, but, overall, these PETM records indicate that the environmental factors that govern taxonomic composition and growth rate will most strongly influence coccolithophore calcification response to anthropogenic change.

The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Kaj M.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition. PMID:26378551

Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at ...

Science.gov (United States)

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observeddata. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results variedby region . Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1 .6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.628.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. In this study we evaluate changes in ozone related mortality due to changes in biogenic f

Satellite Earth observation data to identify climate and anthropogenic pressures on Bucharest periurban forests

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zoran, Maria; Savastru, Roxana; Savastru, Dan [National Institute of R& D for Optoelectronics, MG5 Bucharest-Magurele, 077125 Romania (Romania); Dida, Adrian [University Transylvania of Brasov, Brasov (Romania)

2016-03-25

Satellite Earth observation data in the visible and near-infrared (VNIR) wavelengths represent a useful source of information for forest systems monitoring through derived biogeophysical parameters (vegetation index, leaf area index, canopy cover, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, chlorophyll content, net primary production, canopy water stress, etc.). Use of satellite remote sensing data to assess forest spatio-temporal changes due to climatic or anthropogenic stressors is an excellent example of the value of multispectral and multitemporal observations. Fusion technique was applied to time-series multispectral and multitemporal satellite imagery (NOAA AVHRR, MODIS Terra/Aqua, Landsat ETM and IKONOS satellite data) for periurban forest areas Cernica-Branesti, placed in the neighboring of Bucharest town, Romania, over 2002-2014 period.

Satellite Earth observation data to identify climate and anthropogenic pressures on Bucharest periurban forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zoran, Maria; Savastru, Roxana; Savastru, Dan; Dida, Adrian

2016-01-01

Satellite Earth observation data in the visible and near-infrared (VNIR) wavelengths represent a useful source of information for forest systems monitoring through derived biogeophysical parameters (vegetation index, leaf area index, canopy cover, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, chlorophyll content, net primary production, canopy water stress, etc.). Use of satellite remote sensing data to assess forest spatio-temporal changes due to climatic or anthropogenic stressors is an excellent example of the value of multispectral and multitemporal observations. Fusion technique was applied to time-series multispectral and multitemporal satellite imagery (NOAA AVHRR, MODIS Terra/Aqua, Landsat ETM and IKONOS satellite data) for periurban forest areas Cernica-Branesti, placed in the neighboring of Bucharest town, Romania, over 2002-2014 period.

Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation's Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Unsworth, Kerrie L; Russell, Sally V; Davis, Matthew C

2016-01-01

In this paper, we argue that individuals - as members of society - play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants' belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed.

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition alters growth responses of European beech (Fagus sylvativa L.) to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Hess, Carsten; Niemeyer, Thomas; Fichtner, Andreas; Jansen, Kirstin; Kunz, Matthias; Maneke, Moritz; von Wehrden, Henrik; Quante, Markus; Walmsley, David; von Oheimb, Goddert; Härdtle, Werner

2018-02-01

Global change affects the functioning of forest ecosystems and the services they provide, but little is known about the interactive effects of co-occurring global change drivers on important functions such as tree growth and vitality. In the present study we quantified the interactive (i.e. synergistic or antagonistic) effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) on tree growth (in terms of tree-ring width, TRW), taking forest ecosystems with European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) as an example. We hypothesised that (i) N deposition and climatic variables can evoke non-additive responses of the radial increment of beech trees, and (ii) N loads have the potential to strengthen the trees' sensitivity to climate change. In young stands, we found a synergistic positive effect of N deposition and annual mean temperature on TRW, possibly linked to the alleviation of an N shortage in young stands. In mature stands, however, high N deposition significantly increased the trees' sensitivity to increasing annual mean temperatures (antagonistic effect on TRW), possibly due to increased fine root dieback, decreasing mycorrhizal colonization or shifts in biomass allocation patterns (aboveground vs. belowground). Accordingly, N deposition and climatic variables caused both synergistic and antagonistic effects on the radial increment of beech trees, depending on tree age and stand characteristics. Hence, the nature of interactions could mediate the long-term effects of global change drivers (including N deposition) on forest carbon sequestration. In conclusion, our findings illustrate that interaction processes between climatic variables and N deposition are complex and have the potential to impair growth and performance of European beech. This in turn emphasises the importance of multiple-factor studies to foster an integrated understanding and models aiming at improved projections of tree growth responses to co-occurring drivers

False Balance in Climate Change Reporting Among TV Meteorologists