WorldWideScience

Sample records for anthropogenic climate change

  1. Natural and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portman, D.A.; Gutowski, W.J. Jr.; Wang, W.C.; Iacono, M.J.; Yang, S.

    1992-01-01

    This final report provides a broad overview of program accomplishments. Brief descriptions are provided for accomplishments with respect to intercomparisions and improvements in general circulation models, analysis of climatic data and climate model statistics, and accomplishments in the China Meteorology coordination

  2. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C; Hartter, Joel; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary; Moore, David W; Safford, Thomas G

    2015-01-01

    A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

  3. Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Han-Li; Marsh, Daniel R.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Qian, Liying; Vitt, Francis M.

    2018-02-01

    We simulated anthropogenic global change through the entire atmosphere, including the thermosphere and ionosphere, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended. The basic result was that even as the lower atmosphere gradually warms, the upper atmosphere rapidly cools. The simulations employed constant low solar activity conditions, to remove the effects of variable solar and geomagnetic activity. Global mean annual mean temperature increased at a rate of +0.2 K/decade at the surface and +0.4 K/decade in the upper troposphere but decreased by about -1 K/decade in the stratosphere-mesosphere and -2.8 K/decade in the thermosphere. Near the mesopause, temperature decreases were small compared to the interannual variation, so trends in that region are uncertain. Results were similar to previous modeling confined to specific atmospheric levels and compared favorably with available measurements. These simulations demonstrate the ability of a single comprehensive numerical model to characterize global change throughout the atmosphere.

  4. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change Gerrit Hansen Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced climate change are

  5. Anthropogenic Climate Change and Allergic Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hueiwang Anna Jeng

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have an impact on various aspects of health, including mucosal areas involved in allergic inflammatory disorders that include asthma, allergic rhinitis, allergic conjunctivitis and anaphylaxis. The evidence that links climate change to the exacerbation and the development of allergic disease is increasing and appears to be linked to changes in pollen seasons (duration, onset and intensity and changes in allergen content of plants and their pollen as it relates to increased sensitization, allergenicity and exacerbations of allergic airway disease. This has significant implications for air quality and for the global food supply.

  6. Detecting anthropogenic climate change with an optimal fingerprint method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegerl, G.C.; Storch, H. von; Hasselmann, K.; Santer, B.D.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    We propose a general fingerprint strategy to detect anthropogenic climate change and present application to near surface temperature trends. An expected time-space-variable pattern of anthropogenic climate change (the 'signal') is identified through application of an appropriate optimally matched space-time filter (the 'fingerprint') to the observations. The signal and the fingerprint are represented in a space with sufficient observed and simulated data. The signal pattern is derived from a model-generated prediction of anthropogenic climate change. Application of the fingerprint filter to the data yields a scalar detection variable. The statistically optimal fingerprint is obtained by weighting the model-predicted pattern towards low-noise directions. A combination of model output and observations is used to estimate the noise characteristics of the detection variable, arising from the natural variability of climate in the absence of external forcing. We test then the null hypothesis that the observed climate change is part of natural climate variability. We conclude that a statistically significant externally induced warming has been observed, with the caveat of a possibly inadequate estimate of the internal climate variability. In order to attribute this warming uniquely to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, more information on the climate's response to other forcing mechanisms (e.g. changes in solar radiation, volcanic or anthropogenic aerosols) and their interaction is needed. (orig./KW)

  7. Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, Lennart

    1999-01-01

    The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

  8. Anthropogenic Aerosols in Asia, Radiative Forcing, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Bollasina, M. A.; Ming, Y.; Ocko, I.; Persad, G.

    2014-12-01

    Aerosols arising as a result of human-induced emissions in Asia form a key 'driver' in causing pollution and in the forcing of anthropogenic climate change. The manner of the forced climate change is sensitive to the scattering and absorption properties of the aerosols and the aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions. Using the NOAA/ GFDL global climate models and observations from multiple platforms, we investigate the radiative perturbations due to the 20th Century sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol emissions and the resultant impacts on surface temperature, tropical precipitation, Indian monsoon, hemispheric circulation, and atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. The influence of the aerosol species has many contrasts with that due to the anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gas emissions e.g., the asymmetry in the hemispheric climate response, but is subject to larger uncertainties. The aerosol forcing expected in the future indicates a significant control on the 21st Century anthropogenic climate change in Asia.

  9. The impact of climate change and anthropogenic factors on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examines the impact of climate change and anthropogenic factors on desertification in the semi-arid region of Nigeria. Climatic data (Temperature and rainfall) for 52 years (1950 – 2001) from 25 meteorological stations were collected and analysed. Questionnaires were also used to solicit respondents' ...

  10. Vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Ji-Zhong; Wang, Chun-Jing; Qu, Hong; Liu, Ran; Zhang, Zhi-Xiang

    2018-04-15

    China has large areas of forest vegetation that are critical to biodiversity and carbon storage. It is important to assess vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China because it may change the distributions and species compositions of forest vegetation. Based on the equilibrium assumption of forest communities across different spatial and temporal scales, we used species distribution modelling coupled with endemics-area relationship to assess the vulnerability of 204 forest communities across 16 vegetation types under different climate change scenarios in China. By mapping the vulnerability of forest vegetation to climate change, we determined that 78.9% and 61.8% of forest vegetation should be relatively stable in the low and high concentration scenarios, respectively. There were large vulnerable areas of forest vegetation under anthropogenic climate change in northeastern and southwestern China. The vegetation of subtropical mixed broadleaf evergreen and deciduous forest, cold-temperate and temperate mountains needleleaf forest, and temperate mixed needleleaf and broadleaf deciduous forest types were the most vulnerable under climate change. Furthermore, the vulnerability of forest vegetation may increase due to high greenhouse gas concentrations. Given our estimates of forest vegetation vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, it is critical that we ensure long-term monitoring of forest vegetation responses to future climate change to assess our projections against observations. We need to better integrate projected changes of temperature and precipitation into climate-adaptive conservation strategies for forest vegetation in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gudmundsson, L; Seneviratne, S I

    2016-01-01

    Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures. (letter)

  12. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  13. Anthropogenic climate change detected in European renewable freshwater resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Zhang, Xuebin

    2017-11-01

    Although there is overwhelming evidence showing that human emissions are affecting a wide range of atmospheric variables, it is not clear whether anthropogenic climate change is detectable in continental-scale freshwater resources. Owing to the complexity of terrestrial hydro-systems there is to date only limited evidence suggesting that climate change has altered river discharge in specific regions. Here we show that it is likely that anthropogenic emissions have left a detectable fingerprint in renewable freshwater resources in Europe. We use the detection and attribution approach to compare river-flow observations with state-of-the-art climate model simulations. The analysis shows that the previously observed amplification of the south (dry)-north (wet) contrast in pan-European river flow is captured by climate models only if human emissions are accounted for, although the models significantly underestimate the response. A regional analysis highlights that a strong and significant decrease is observed in the Mediterranean, generally along with a weak increase in northern Europe, whereas there is little change in transitional central Europe. As river and streamflow are indicators for renewable freshwater resources, the results highlight the necessity of raising awareness on climate change projections that indicate increasing water scarcity in southern Europe.

  14. Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

  15. Attribution of irreversible loss to anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Bresch, David; Hansen, Gerrit; James, Rachel; Mechler, Reinhard; Stone, Dáithí; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo

    2016-04-01

    The Paris Agreement (2015) under the UNFCCC has anchored loss and damage in a separate article which specifies that understanding and support should be enhanced in areas addressing loss and damage such as early warning, preparedness, insurance and resilience. Irreversible loss is a special category under loss and damage but there is still missing clarity over what irreversible loss actually includes. Many negative impacts of climate change may be handled or mitigated by existing risk management, reduction and absorption approaches. Irreversible loss, however, is thought to be insufficiently addressed by risk management. Therefore, countries potentially or actually affected by irreversible loss are calling for other measures such as compensation, which however is highly contested in international climate policy. In Paris (2015) a decision was adopted that loss and damage as defined in the respective article of the agreement does not involve compensation and liability. Nevertheless, it is likely that some sort of mechanism will eventually need to come into play for irreversible loss due to anthropogenic climate change, which might involve compensation, other forms of non-monetary reparation, or transformation. Furthermore, climate litigation has increasingly been attempted to address negative effects of climate change. In this context, attribution is important to understand the drivers of change, what counts as irreversible loss due to climate change, and, possibly, who or what is responsible. Here we approach this issue by applying a detection and attribution perspective on irreversible loss. We first analyze detected climate change impacts as assessed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. We distinguish between irreversible loss in physical, biological and human systems, and accordingly identify the following candidates of irreversible loss in these systems: loss of glaciers and ice sheets, loss of subsurface ice (permafrost) and related loss of lake systems; loss

  16. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.

  17. Nuclear Renaissance in an Era of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bird, John

    2008-01-01

    This paper substantiates the anthropogenic origin of climate change, demonstrates the resulting consequences, and thereby establishes the need for a nuclear renaissance over the next thirty years. First, the mechanisms behind the natural cycles in global warming, specifically, cycles of precession and eccentricity in Earth's orbit, as measured in ice cores, are compared to the mechanisms of anthropogenic warming, revealing the scientific basis for the observed correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature. Second, the resulting climate change is exemplified by key results from experiments performed by the author in the Arctic and at the South Geographic Pole, and the author's experience of Switzerland's costliest natural catastrophe - the flash flood of 2005. Third, although facing barriers such as research and development requirements, political will and public acceptance, the potential for nuclear power to triple to 1,000 GWe by 2050 would mitigate climate change by holding carbon dioxide concentration below 500 ppm, thereby challenging the younger nuclear generation to contribute to the most important issue facing humanity. (authors)

  18. Nuclear Renaissance in an Era of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bird, John [Bruce Power, Box 3000 B06, Tiverton, Ontario N0G 2T0 (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    This paper substantiates the anthropogenic origin of climate change, demonstrates the resulting consequences, and thereby establishes the need for a nuclear renaissance over the next thirty years. First, the mechanisms behind the natural cycles in global warming, specifically, cycles of precession and eccentricity in Earth's orbit, as measured in ice cores, are compared to the mechanisms of anthropogenic warming, revealing the scientific basis for the observed correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature. Second, the resulting climate change is exemplified by key results from experiments performed by the author in the Arctic and at the South Geographic Pole, and the author's experience of Switzerland's costliest natural catastrophe - the flash flood of 2005. Third, although facing barriers such as research and development requirements, political will and public acceptance, the potential for nuclear power to triple to 1,000 GWe by 2050 would mitigate climate change by holding carbon dioxide concentration below 500 ppm, thereby challenging the younger nuclear generation to contribute to the most important issue facing humanity. (authors)

  19. Middle School Students' Understandings About Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, B. W.

    2013-12-01

    they discussed the validation of their beliefs. That is, we argue that the unit, and the emphases contained within the unit, resulted in the "epistemic scaffolding" of their ideas, to the extent that they shifted from arguing from anecdotes to arguing based on other types of data, especially from line graphs. Additionally, we found that students' understandings of climate change were tied to their ontological constructions of the subject matter, i.e., many perceived climate change as just another environmentally sensitive issue such as littering and pollution, and were therefore limited in their ability to understand anthropogenic climate change in the vast and robust sense meant by current scientific consensus. Given these known difficulties, it is critical to explore further research of this sort in order to better understand what students are actually thinking, and how that thinking is prone to change, modification, or not. Subsequently, K-12 strategies might be better designed, if that is indeed a priority of US/Western society.

  20. Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Case Study Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenbath, Thien-Kim Leckie

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation shows the evolution of five undergraduate students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change throughout a lecture hall course on climate change. This research was informed by conceptual change theory and students' inaccurate ideas of climate change. Subjects represented different levels of climate change understanding at…

  1. Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abatzoglou, John T; Williams, A Park

    2016-10-18

    Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

  2. Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.

    2011-01-01

    A number of studies were conducted to demonstrate the best way to assess the potential influence of climate change on disaster losses was to analyze future projections in place of historical data. These studies showed that increases in exposure and wealth were the most important drivers for growing

  3. Anthropogenic Climate Change in Undergraduate Marine and Environmental Science Programs in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlietstra, Lucy S.; Mrakovcich, Karina L.; Futch, Victoria C.; Stutzman, Brooke S.

    2016-01-01

    To develop a context for program-level design decisions pertaining to anthropogenic climate change, the authors studied the prevalence of courses focused on human-induced climate change in undergraduate marine science and environmental science degree programs in the United States. Of the 86 institutions and 125 programs the authors examined, 37%…

  4. Detection of anthropogenic climate change: a modeling study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffy, P B; Eltgroth, P G.

    1998-01-01

    This project involved two related areas of research: (1) simulating natural climate variability using a global climate model, and (2) using the computer resources of the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) Blue computer for specific problems in atmospheric science and climate. Although originally scheduled to last two years, this ER project ended after one year; the work is begin continued under a larger (Strategic Initiative) project which started in FY99

  5. The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

    2016-01-01

    A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models,…

  6. Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. van Oldenborgh

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data. Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs, these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse

  7. Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; van Weele, Michiel; Uhe, Peter; Otto, Friederike; Singh, Roop; Pai, Indrani; Cullen, Heidi; AchutaRao, Krishna

    2018-01-01

    On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India - a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution

  8. The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vallis, Geoffrey K. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2015-01-30

    The project had two main components. The first concerns estimating the climate sensitivity in the presence of forcing uncertainty and natural variability. Climate sensitivity is the increase in the average surface temperature for a given increase in greenhouse gases, for example a doubling of carbon dioxide. We have provided new, probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity using a simple climate model an the observed warming in the 20th century, in conjunction with ideas in data assimilation and parameter estimation developed in the engineering community. The estimates combine the uncertainty in the anthropogenic aerosols with the uncertainty arising because of natural variability. The second component concerns how the atmospheric circulation itself might change with anthropogenic global warming. We have shown that GCMs robustly predict an increase in the length scale of eddies, and we have also explored the dynamical mechanisms whereby there might be a shift in the latitude of the jet stream associated with anthropogenic warming. Such shifts in the jet might cause large changes in regional climate, potentially larger than the globally-averaged signal itself. We have also shown that the tropopause robustly increases in height with global warming, and that the Hadley Cell expands, and that the expansion of the Hadley Cell is correlated with the polewards movement of the mid-latitude jet.

  9. Investigation of air pollution and regional climate change due to anthropogenic aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakata, Makiko; Sano, Itaru; Mukai, Sonoyo

    2016-10-01

    Increased emissions of anthropogenic aerosols associated with economic growth can lead to increased concentrations of hazardous air pollutants. In particular, large cities in East Asia have experienced numerous heavy haze episodes. Atmospheric aerosol distributions in East Asia are complex, being influenced by both natural phenomena and human activity, with urban areas in particular being dominated by fine anthropogenic aerosols released from diesel-powered vehicles and industrial activity. In Japan, air pollution levels have been reduced; nevertheless, in recent years, there is increasing concern regarding air pollution caused by fine particulate matter. The origins of air pollution were examined, focusing on the comparison between aerosol properties observed from satellites and that on the ground. Because of their short life spans, concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols are highest over the source regions, and as a result, the climatic impacts of anthropogenic aerosols are also found to be most pronounced in these regions. In this study, aerosol impacts on climate are assessed by numerical model simulations. The direct effects of aerosols include reduced solar radiation, and hence a decrease in surface temperatures. In addition to these changes in the radiation budget, aerosols have a significant potential to change cloud and precipitation fields. These climatic responses to aerosols can manifest far from their source regions with high industrial activities.

  10. The role of Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) on Ancient Climates and Implications for Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumming, M.

    2017-12-01

    Our increasingly robust history of ancient climates indicates that high latitude glaciation is the ultimate product of an episodic cooling trend that began about 100-million years ago rather than a result of a yet-to-be identified modal change. Antarctic geography (continent surrounded by ocean) allowed ice to develop prior to significant glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere (ocean surrounded by land), but global ice volume generally increased as Earth cooled. The question of what caused the Ice Ages should be reframed as to "What caused the Cenozoic Cooling?" Records tell us that changes in temperature and CO2 levels rise and fall together, however it is not clear when CO2 acts as a driver versus when it is primarily an indicator of temperature change. The episodic nature of the cooling trend suggests other more dynamic phenomena are involved. It is proposed that oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a significant role in regulating Earth's surface temperature. Robust MOC has a cooling effect which results from its sequestration of cold waters (together with their increased heat-absorbing potential) below the surface. Unable to better absorb equatorial insolation for great lengths of time, oceanic deep waters are not able to fully compensate for the heat lost by warm-water transport to Polar Regions. A lag-time between cooling and subsequent warming yields lower operating temperatures commensurate with the strength of global MOC. The long-term decline in global temperatures is largely explained by the tectonic reshaping of ocean basins and the connections between them such that MOC has generally, but not uniformly, increased. Geophysically Influenced MOC (GIMOC) has caused a significant proportion of the lowering of global temperatures in the Cenozoic Era. Short-term disruptions in MOC (and subsequent impacts on global temperatures) were likely involved in Late Pleistocene glacial termination events and may already be compounding present

  11. Climate and Anthropogenic Change in Aquatic Environments: A Cross Ecosystem Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    habitats, from the rocky mid-ocean ridges, submarine canyons, trenches, and seamounts , to the island-like chemoautotrophic cold seeps, hydrothermal...Current. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:1823 [doi:10.1029/ 2003GL017647]. Sterner, R. W., and J. J. Elser. 2002. Ecological Stoichiometry: the biology of...1 Climate and anthropogenic changes are altering aquatic ecosystems around the globe, in some areas with devastating consequences. Mitigating the

  12. Changing Stomatal Conductance in Response to Anthropogenic Climate Change: a Model-Data Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, C.; Batke, S.; Caballero, R.; McElwain, J.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the response of stomatal conductance to increasing anthropogenic CO2 is of critical importance for the evaluation of the global hydrological cycle, and has implications for future climate change, particularly flood and risk. Via physiological and morphological changes in leaf structure, stomatal conductance has been shown to decrease under elevated CO2 conditions, stimulating higher vegetation water use efficiency and water retention within the land system. However, an assessment of how the simulation of changing stomatal conductance in an Earth System Model compares with observational data under varying CO2 concentrations (Free Air CO2 Enrichment - FACE - studies) has not yet been conducted, and is crucial for considering the significance of the issue of flooding for global policy making. Here we utilise the Community Land Model, Version 4.5 (CLM4.5), performing climate simulations over a range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations from 350ppm to 700ppm (50ppm increments), and compare the model data with results from a conclusive set of FACE studies (350ppm - 700ppm range). We show general agreement between the climate model and FACE data with regards to decreasing stomatal conductance in response to increasing CO2 concentration. However the magnitudes of the conductance changes differ, spatially within the model, and across species in the FACE studies. We show how the model can be used to assess global stomatal conductance changes on spatial scales where FACE cannot (ie. most FACE studies are located across the 30°- 60° latitude belt). This is useful for understanding the role of groundwater retention and potential flood risk at regional scales across the globe. Additionally the model demonstrates seasonal-spatial changes in stomatal conductance in response to CO2 forcing. Such seasonal changes are generally absent throughout FACE studies, as measurement is predominantly tasked during summer months. Our results reiterate the importance of climate

  13. Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, J.

    2013-04-27

    This paper aims to test the robustness of the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change using four different empirical models that were previously developed to explain the observed global mean temperature changes over the last few decades. These studies postulated that the main drivers of these changes included not only the usual natural forcings, such as solar and volcanic, and anthropogenic forcings, such as greenhouse gases and sulfates, but also other known Earth system oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In this paper, we consider these signals, or forced responses, and test whether or not the anthropogenic signal can be robustly detected under different assumptions for the internal variability of the climate system. We assume that the internal variability of the global mean surface temperature can be described by simple stochastic models that explore a wide range of plausible temporal autocorrelations, ranging from short memory processes exemplified by an AR(1) model to long memory processes, represented by a fractional differenced model. In all instances, we conclude that human-induced changes to atmospheric gas composition is affecting global mean surface temperature changes. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  14. Quantifying loss and damage from anthropogenic climate change - Bridging the gap between two research communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, F. E. L.

    2015-12-01

    The science of attribution of meteorological events to anthropogenic causes has for the first time been included in the latest assessment of the Physical Science Basis of the Climate, (WGI), of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report AR5 (Stocker et al., 2013). At the same time there is a very rapidly growing body of literature on climate change and its impact on economy, society and environment but apart from very few exemptions no link is made to the causes of these changes. Observed changes in hydrological variables, agriculture, biodiversity and the built environment have been attributed to a changing climate, whether these changes are the result of natural variability or external forcings (Cramer et al., 2014). While the research community represented in WGI assesses whether, and to what extent, recent extreme weather events can be attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, the research community of impact specialists asks how climatic changes lead to different impacts largely independent of the causes of such changes. This distinction becomes potentially very relevant with respect to the 2013 established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change in developing countries under the UNFCCC climate change negotiations. Currently there is no discussion what consists of loss and damage and the reasons for this inexistence of a definition are not primarily scientific but political however, the absence of a definition could potentially lead to absurd consequences if funds in the context of loss and damage would be redistributed, as e.g. suggested, for all low risk high impact events. Here we present the implications of discussed definitions of loss and damage (Huggel et al. 2015) and how scientific evidence could be included. Cramer et al. (2014) Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of WG 2 to AR5 of

  15. Urban green land cover changes and their relation to climatic variables in an anthropogenically impacted area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Dida, Adrian I.

    2017-10-01

    Urban green areas are experiencing rapid land cover change caused by human-induced land degradation and extreme climatic events. Vegetation index time series provide a useful way to monitor urban vegetation phenological variations. This study quantitatively describes Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI) /Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) temporal changes for Bucharest metropolitan region land cover in Romania from the perspective of vegetation phenology and its relation with climate changes and extreme climate events. The time series from 2000 to 2016 of the NOAA AVHRR and MODIS Terra/Aqua satellite data were analyzed to extract anomalies. Time series of climatic variables were also analyzed through anomaly detection techniques and the Fourier Transform. Correlations between NDVI/EVI time series and climatic variables were computed. Temperature, rainfall and radiation were significantly correlated with almost all land-cover classes for the harmonic analysis amplitude term. However, vegetation phenology was not correlated with climatic variables for the harmonic analysis phase term suggesting a delay between climatic variations and vegetation response. Training and validation were based on a reference dataset collected from IKONOS high resolution remote sensing data. The mean detection accuracy for period 2000- 2016 was assessed to be of 87%, with a reasonable balance between change commission errors (19.3%), change omission errors (24.7%), and Kappa coefficient of 0.73. This paper demonstrates the potential of moderate - and high resolution, multispectral imagery to map and monitor the evolution of the physical urban green land cover under climate and anthropogenic pressure.

  16. Anthropogenic Changes in Mid-latitude Storm and Blocking Activities from Observations and Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.

    2017-12-01

    Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change can be most readily detected in the high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere, where temperature has been rising faster than the rest of the globe and sea ice cover has shrunk dramatically over recent decades. Reducing the meridional temperature gradient, this amplified warming over the high latitudes influences weather in the middle latitudes by modulating the jet stream, storms, and atmospheric blocking activities. Whether observational records have revealed significant changes in mid-latitude storms and blocking activities, however, has remained a subject of much debate. Buried deep in strong year-to-year variations, the long-term dynamic responses of the atmosphere are more difficult to identify, compared with its thermodynamic responses. Variabilities of decadal and longer timescales further obscure any trends diagnosed from satellite observations, which are often shorter than 40 years. Here, new metrics reflecting storm and blocking activities are developed using surface air temperature and pressure records, and their variations and long-term trends are examined. This approach gives an inkling of the changes in storm and blocking activities since the Industrial Revolution in regions with abundant long-term observational records, e.g. Europe and North America. The relationship between Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and variations in storm and blocking activities across the Atlantic is also scrutinized. The connection between observed centennial trends and anthropogenic forcings is investigated using a hierarchy of numerical tools, from highly idealized to fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Pre-industrial control simulations and a set of large ensemble simulations forced by increased CO2 are analyzed to evaluate the range of natural variabilities, which paves the way to singling out significant anthropogenic changes from observational records, as well as predicting future changes in mid-latitude storm and

  17. Climatic changes and anthropogenic pollution as evidenced by two Alpine lacustrine records, Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevenon, Florian; Poté, John; Guédron, Stéphane; Adatte, Thierry; Chiaradia, Massimo; Loizeau, Jean-Luc; Spangenberg, Jorge; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

    2010-05-01

    This study aims to provide high-resolution records of climatic changes and human impacts on two different Alpine environments: Lake Lucerne is a large (114 km2) lake located at 434 m asl in Central Switzerland, whereas Meidsee is a small (industrial history and the last millennia were sampled with a resolution of 1 cm, and investigated for organic (13δC, 15δN, C/N) and/or inorganic (δ13C, δ18O) matter contents, and elemental composition (REE compositions, trace elements, and heavy metals). Both sites exhibit 1) rapid hydrological changes related to variations in winter precipitations, and 2) increases in atmospheric pollution due to human activities. Lead enrichment factors combined to changes in lead isotopic composition (206Pb/207Pb ratio) are used to distinguish natural from anthropogenic sources. The greatest mercury and lead atmospheric emissions occurred during the twentieth century, resulting from the extensive combustion of fossil coal and petroleum in Europe. Although the highest heavy metals fluxes are synchronous with major anthropogenic changes (e.g. Roman mining, industrial revolution), proxies show that in absence of such events, the heavy metals deposition in the sedimentary records is primarily influenced by sedimentological processes linked to climate variations (i.e. runoff and erosion processes).

  18. Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Effect on Hilsa Fishery Management in South-East Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahsan, Dewan

    2014-01-01

    Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha) is one of the most important anadromous fish species of the trans-boundary ecosystem of Bangladesh, India and Myanmar. Hilsa is not only an economically important species specially for Bangladesh and India but also the integral part of the culture of the Bangladesh...... and for all of these purposes Hilsa needs freshwaters. Ripe broods prefer turbid, fast flowing freshwater for spawning but young prefer clear and slow flowing freshwater. Climate change (salinity intrusion, sea level rise, temperature rise, impact of fresh water flow), unplanned developmental activities...... and other anthropogenic activities all together are severely damaging the Hilsa stock and its habitats. So, climate change and human interferences are predicted to have a range of direct and indirect impacts on marine and freshwater Hilsa fishery, with implications for fisheries-dependent economies, coastal...

  19. Urban Cholera and Water Sustainability Challenges under Climatic and Anthropogenic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Faruque, A. G.; Colwell, R. R.

    2013-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city of the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the developing world, especially those located in coastal regions of the tropics remain vulnerable to similar. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with changes in related climatic, environmental, or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or societal factors: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera incidence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend seem to be more epidemic in nature. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements that have negligible to poor water and sanitation systems compounded by increasing frequency of record flood events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of spring outbreaks, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the region.

  20. The Relationship Between Anthropogenic Climate Change Acceptance and Agreement with Authentic Dissenter Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, A. P.; Petcovic, H. L.; Cassidy, D. P.; Eklund, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) poses a threat to the safety and well-being of the United States. For science educators, the first step to mitigating this problem is helping the public understand the science of climate change so they make knowledgeable political and personal choices. However, some Americans remain unconvinced that the recent rapid rise of Earth's temperature is caused by human activities. A portion of anti-climate change information comes from groups that stand to lose power and revenue if the public begins to favor greenhouse gas limiting policies. These groups thwart policy initiatives through the production and dissemination of anti-ACC messages to news media, blogs, and among politicians. It is important for educators to understand these dissenter messages in order to avoid inadvertently using them. In earlier work, we developed a Likert-type survey instrument from online videos of authentic dissenter messages. Using this instrument and exploratory factor analysis (N=133), we identified five categories of counter ACC arguments: naïve statements which either use scientific misconceptions to dismiss or attack the science of ACC; sophisticated scientific statements which imply warming is not anthropogenic; arguments that assert recent changes are natural or out of our control; arguments that imply current warming is simply part of a larger cycle; and statements that highlight benefits of a warming climate. For the present study we validated the instrument using multiple methods including confirmatory factor analysis (N=151). Results suggest our instrument may identify how different populations agree with misleading ACC material. Here we explore two questions: (1) does a relationship exist between dissenter message agreement and primary news source? and (2) does a relationship exist between dissenter statement agreement and ACC acceptance? This information could be used to generate tailored resources that could inoculate people from misleading

  1. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlson, R. J.; Schwartz, S. E.; Hales, J. M.; Cess, R. D.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.; Hansen, J. E.; Hofmann, D. J.

    1992-01-01

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, in particular, has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short-wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

  2. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charlson, R.J.; Schwartz, S.E.; Hales, J.M.; Cess, R.D.; Coakley, J.A. Jr.; Hansen, J.E.; Hofmann, D.J. (University of Washington, Seattle, WA (USA). Inst. for Environmental Studies, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences)

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square metre, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes. 73 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  4. Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nian-Zhi Jiao

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of China seas and coasts are undergoing rapid changes under the strong influences of both global climate change and anthropogenic activities. To understand the scope of these changes and the mechanisms behind them is of paramount importance for the sustainable development of China, and for the establishment of national policies on environment protection and climate change mitigation. Here we provide a brief review of the impacts of global climate change and human activities on the oceans in general, and on the ecosystems of China seas and coasts in particular. More importantly, we discuss the challenges we are facing and propose several research foci for China seas/coasts ecosystem studies, including long-term time series observations on multiple scales, facilities for simulation study, blue carbon, coastal ecological security, prediction of ecosystem evolution and ecosystem-based management. We also establish a link to the Future Earth program from the perspectives of two newly formed national alliances, the China Future Ocean Alliance and the Pan-China Ocean Carbon Alliance.

  5. Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paerl, Hans W., E-mail: hpaerl@email.unc.edu; Hall, Nathan S.; Calandrino, Elizabeth S.

    2011-04-15

    Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N{sub 2}) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N{sub 2} fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change. - Research Highlights: {yields} Toxic cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten global water supplies. {yields} Human (nutrient) and climate (hydrology, temperature) changes synergistically promote CyanoHABs. {yields

  6. Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paerl, Hans W.; Hall, Nathan S.; Calandrino, Elizabeth S.

    2011-01-01

    Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N 2 ) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N 2 fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change. - Research Highlights: → Toxic cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten global water supplies. → Human (nutrient) and climate (hydrology, temperature) changes synergistically promote CyanoHABs. → CyanoHAB control

  7. A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittig, Rüdiger; König, Konstantin; Schmidt, Marco; Szarzynski, Jörg

    2007-05-01

    During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the

  8. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L Mann

    Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  9. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  10. Western Pyrenees facing global change: comparison of the effects of climatic and anthropogenic change on water abstractions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terrasson, Isabelle; Chazot, Sebastien; Maton, Laure; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Caballero, Yvan

    2014-01-01

    In the French Western Pyrenees, the trend to the decrease of low water flows that has been observed during the current years should be going on in the future. This may increase the hydric stress on aquatic ecosystems, and the competition among water uses and users for accessing water resources. The research project ANR-VULCAIN compared the impacts of climatic and socio-economic change on the hydro-systems of the French Western Pyrenees. Modeling and participative prospect analysis have been coupled to quantify the evolution of water abstractions under these two types of change. Socio-economic scenarios have been built together with local stakeholders during workshops (urbanism / land planning on the one hand and agriculture on the other hand). Their results have been quantified with the models developed so as to assess anthropogenic change impacts on domestic and agricultural abstractions. In parallel, the agricultural model has been fed with climatic scenarios so as to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural water needs. In the created scenarios, the evolution of agricultural water needs under climate change have a bigger range than the evolution of abstractions for domestic water and agricultural needs under anthropic change, which are the same order of magnitude. To satisfy this evolution, there are some rooms to maneuver: make distribution modalities more efficient, optimize the management of storage capacity, or use substitution resources. This paper presents the approach that has been followed, and some of the main results. (authors)

  11. Teaching Anthropogenic Climate Change through Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Helping Students Think Critically about Science and Ethics in Dialogue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Claire; O'Brien, Kevin J.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is a complicated issue involving scientific data and analyses as well as political, economic, and ethical issues. In order to capture this complexity, we developed an interdisciplinary student and faculty collaboration by (1) offering introductory lectures on scientific and ethical methods to two classes, (2) assigning…

  12. Nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services in the Brazilian La Plata Basin: anthropogenic influence and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Watanabe

    Full Text Available The increasing human demand for food, raw material and energy has radically modified both the landscape and biogeochemical cycles in many river basins in the world. The interference of human activities on the Biosphere is so significant that it has doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen due to industrial fertiliser production (Haber-Bosch, fossil fuel burning and land-use change over the last century. In this context, the Brazilian La Plata Basin contributes to the alteration of the nitrogen cycle in South America because of its huge agricultural and grazing area that meets the demands of its large urban centres - Sao Paulo, for instance - and also external markets abroad. In this paper, we estimate the current inputs and outputs of anthropogenic nitrogen (in kg N.km-2.yr-1 in the basin. In the results, we observe that soybean plays a very important role in the Brazilian La Plata, since it contributes with an annual entrance of about 1.8 TgN due to biological nitrogen fixation. Moreover, our estimate indicates that the export of soybean products accounts for roughly 1.0 TgN which is greater than the annual nitrogen riverine exports from Brazilian Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers together. Complimentarily, we built future scenarios representing changes in the nitrogen cycle profile considering two scenarios of climate change for 2070-2100 (based on IPCC's A2 and B2 that will affect land-use, nitrogen inputs, and loss of such nutrients in the basin. Finally, we discuss how both scenarios will affect human well-being since there is a connection between nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services that affect local and global populations, such as food and fibre production and climate regulation.

  13. Nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services in the Brazilian La Plata Basin: anthropogenic influence and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, M; Ortega, E; Bergier, I; Silva, J S V

    2012-08-01

    The increasing human demand for food, raw material and energy has radically modified both the landscape and biogeochemical cycles in many river basins in the world. The interference of human activities on the Biosphere is so significant that it has doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen due to industrial fertiliser production (Haber-Bosch), fossil fuel burning and land-use change over the last century. In this context, the Brazilian La Plata Basin contributes to the alteration of the nitrogen cycle in South America because of its huge agricultural and grazing area that meets the demands of its large urban centres - Sao Paulo, for instance - and also external markets abroad. In this paper, we estimate the current inputs and outputs of anthropogenic nitrogen (in kg N.km(-2).yr(-1)) in the basin. In the results, we observe that soybean plays a very important role in the Brazilian La Plata, since it contributes with an annual entrance of about 1.8 TgN due to biological nitrogen fixation. Moreover, our estimate indicates that the export of soybean products accounts for roughly 1.0 TgN which is greater than the annual nitrogen riverine exports from Brazilian Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers together. Complimentarily, we built future scenarios representing changes in the nitrogen cycle profile considering two scenarios of climate change for 2070-2100 (based on IPCC's A2 and B2) that will affect land-use, nitrogen inputs, and loss of such nutrients in the basin. Finally, we discuss how both scenarios will affect human well-being since there is a connection between nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services that affect local and global populations, such as food and fibre production and climate regulation.

  14. Sensitivity of summer climate to anthropogenic land-cover change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgescu, M.; Miguez-Macho, G.; Steyaert, L.T.; Weaver, C.P.

    2008-01-01

    This work evaluates the first-order effect of land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) on the summer climate of one of the nation's most rapidly expanding metropolitan complexes, the Greater Phoenix, AZ, region. High-resolution-2-km grid spacing-Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) simulations of three "wet" and three "dry" summers were carried out for two different land-cover reconstructions for the region: a circa 1992 representation based on satellite observations, and a hypothetical land-cover scenario where the anthropogenic landscape of irrigated agriculture and urban pixels was replaced with current semi-natural vegetation. Model output is evaluated with respect to observed air temperature, dew point, and precipitation. Our results suggest that development of extensive irrigated agriculture adjacent to the urban area has dampened any regional-mean warming due to urbanization. Consistent with previous observationally based work, LULCC produces a systematic increase in precipitation to the north and east of the city, though only under dry conditions. This is due to a change in background atmospheric stability resulting from the advection of both warmth from the urban core and moisture from the irrigated area. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

    2016-01-01

    A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models, globally distributed data sets, and complex laboratory and data collection procedures. Here we examine efforts by the scientific community and educational researchers to design new curricula and technology that close this gap and impart robust AGCC and Earth Science understanding. We find technology-based teaching shows promise in promoting robust AGCC understandings if associated curricula address mitigating factors such as time constraints in incorporating technology and the need to support teachers implementing AGCC and Earth Science inquiry. We recommend the scientific community continue to collaborate with educational researchers to focus on developing those inquiry technologies and curricula that use realistic scientific processes from AGCC research and/or the methods for determining how human society should respond to global change.

  16. Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Verburg, Peter H.

    2017-05-01

    Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) represents one of the key drivers of global environmental change. However, the processes and drivers of anthropogenic land-use activity are still overly simplistically implemented in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The published results of these models are used in major assessments of processes and impacts of global environmental change, such as the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Fully coupled models of climate, land use and biogeochemical cycles to explore land use-climate interactions across spatial scales are currently not available. Instead, information on land use is provided as exogenous data from the land-use change modules of integrated assessment models (IAMs) to TBMs. In this article, we discuss, based on literature review and illustrative analysis of empirical and modeled LULCC data, three major challenges of this current LULCC representation and their implications for land use-climate interaction studies: (I) provision of consistent, harmonized, land-use time series spanning from historical reconstructions to future projections while accounting for uncertainties associated with different land-use modeling approaches, (II) accounting for sub-grid processes and bidirectional changes (gross changes) across spatial scales, and (III) the allocation strategy of independent land-use data at the grid cell level in TBMs. We discuss the factors that hamper the development of improved land-use representation, which sufficiently accounts for uncertainties in the land-use modeling process. We propose that LULCC data-provider and user communities should engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced LULCC time series, which account for the diversity of LULCC modeling and increasingly include empirically based information about sub-grid processes and land-use transition trajectories, to improve the representation of land use in TBMs. Moreover, we suggest concentrating on the

  17. Boreal mire carbon exchange: sensitivity to climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen and sulfur deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eriksson, Tobias

    2010-07-01

    Boreal peatlands are important long-term sinks of atmospheric carbon and in the same time the largest natural source of methane to the atmosphere. A changing climate as well as deposition of anthropogenically derived pollutants, such as nitrogen and sulfur, has the potential to affect the processes that control the carbon exchange in peatlands. Many of the biogeochemical responses to changed environmental conditions, such as changed plant community composition, are slow and therefore long-term studies are required. In this thesis I have investigated the long-term effects of nitrogen addition, sulfur addition and greenhouse enclosures on carbon exchange by using a field manipulation experiment in a boreal minerogenic, oligotrophic mire after 10-12 years of treatment. Treatment effects on CH{sub 4} emissions, gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were estimated from 1-2 seasons of chamber flux measurements. Treatment effects on potential CH{sub 4} production and oxidation were estimated in incubations of peat from different depth intervals. The effect of nitrogen deposition on carbon accumulation was evaluated in peat cores at different depth intervals. The long-term nitrogen additions have: shifted plant community composition from being dominated by Sphagnum to being dominated by sedges and dwarf shrubs; changed mire surface microtopography so that mean water table is closer to the surface in plots with high nitrogen; increased CH{sub 4} production and emission; increased Reco slightly but have not affected GPP or NEE; reduced the peat height increment, but increased both peat bulk density and carbon content, leading to an unchanged carbon accumulation. The long-term sulfur additions have not reduced CH{sub 4} emissions, only slightly reduced CH{sub 4} production and did not have any effect on the CO{sub 2} carbon exchange. The greenhouse treatment, manifested in increased air and soil temperatures, reduced

  18. Answers to arguments of those who doubt of the reality of an anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, Michel

    2010-01-01

    The author aims at answering the arguments stated by climate sceptics who deny the existence of a climate change due to human activities. He addresses and discusses the understanding of climate and its modelling and answers to the following statements made by climate sceptics: climatology is a new science still in its infancy; factors which influence climate remain largely unknown, climate models predict the future by using past observations; the role of water vapour is ignored whereas it is essential; nothing proves that atmosphere composition changes are related to human activities; variations in solar radiations have a more important role than atmosphere composition. In the same way, the author answers statements related to the consequences of climate changes (sea level rise is not significant; ice melt does not result in sea level rise; the Earth has experienced much higher temperatures in the past without major damages), or related to the existence of a recent climate change (the notion of average temperature is meaningless; temperature has been increasing since the beginning of the century), or related to the difference between climatology and meteorology (it's an illusion to predict the climate within a century whereas it's impossible to make weather forecasts for next month; how can we believe in global warming when winter has been long and cold), and finally regarding the IPCC (the scientific consensus of the IPCC reports makes no sense; IPCC is a closed lobby for well paid international public servants; and so on.)

  19. Impacts of anthropogenic activities on climate change in arid and semiarid areas based on CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, T.; LI, C.

    2014-12-01

    Based on all (ALL) forcing and single-forcing runs from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) simulations, the present paper examines the anthropogenic influence of greenhouse gases (GHG), anthropogenic aerosols (AA), land use (LU) and combined anthropogenic (Ant) effects on climate change in global arid and semiarid regions. Significant warming is a robust feature over the global land as a response to Ant and GHG forcings, and the warming rate from the latter forcing is two to three times that of ALL forcing results over the past 60 years. AA produces remarkable cooling over the global land surface, whereas LU leads to slight cooling in most arid and semiarid areas. GHG- and Ant-driven increases of precipitation are found in most land areas, especially in arid and semiarid regions. AA and LU produce substantial variation of precipitation over various areas, and current uncertainties are relatively great in AA and LU forcing runs. Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) is used to analyze temporal scales of annual temperature and precipitation. The results show that interdecadal and multidecadal variations of temperature and precipitation are attributable to combined natural and anthropogenic forcings in most arid and semiarid regions, where AA dominates variations of both temperature and precipitation on multidecadal timescales. Both GHG and LU have positive effects on multidecadal changes of precipitation over arid and semiarid regions globally. However, the latter significantly prevents multidecadal changes of temperature over arid and semiarid regions of Australia.

  20. Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Henson

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR. We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (~20–30 years. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

  1. Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezér, Martin A

    2016-04-01

    To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley's (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd's (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Wetland and Agriculture in the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Influences of the increasing pressure of climate change and anthropogenic activities on wetlands ecosystems and agriculture are significant around the world. This paper assessed the spatiotemporal land use and land cover changes (LULCC, especially for conversion from marshland to other LULC types (e.g., croplands over the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain (SNP and SJP, northeast China, during the past 35 years (1980–2015. The relative role of human activities and climatic changes in terms of their impacts on wetlands and agriculture dynamics were quantitatively distinguished and evaluated in different periods based on a seven-stage LULC dataset. Our results indicated that human activities, such as population expansion and socioeconomic development, and institutional policies related to wetlands and agriculture were the main driving forces for LULCC of the SJP and SNP during the past decades, while increasing contributions of climatic changes were also found. Furthermore, as few studies have identified which geographic regions are most at risk, how the future climate changes will spatially and temporally impact wetlands and agriculture, i.e., the suitability of wetlands and agriculture distributions under different future climate change scenarios, were predicted and analyzed using a habitat distribution model (Maxent at the pixel-scale. The present findings can provide valuable references for policy makers on regional sustainability for food security, water resource rational management, agricultural planning and wetland protection as well as restoration of the region.

  3. Understanding subtropical cloud feedbacks in anthropogenic climate change simulations of CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, T. A.; Norris, J. R.

    2014-12-01

    Subtropical marine boundary layer clouds over the eastern subtropics are poorly simulated by climate models and contribute substantially to inter-model differences in climate sensitivity. The aim of the present study is to better understand inter-model differences in projected cloud changes and to constrain the cloud feedback to warming. To do this, we compute independent relationships of cloud properties (cloud fraction, cloud-top height, and cloud radiative effect) to interannual variations in sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, horizontal surface temperature advection, free-tropospheric humidity, and subsidence using observations and as simulated by models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. Each relationship is considered to be independent because it represents the association between some cloud property and a meteorological parameter when the other parameters are held constant. We approximate modelled cloud trends in climate change simulations as the sum of the simulated cloud/meteorology relationships multiplied by the respective meteorological trends. We compare these estimated cloud trends to the sum of the observed cloud/meteorology relationships multiplied by the simulated meteorological trends. This method allows us to better understand the sources of inter-model differences in projected cloud changes, including whether cloud/meteorology relationships or meteorological trends dominate the spread of cloud changes. We approximate the true cloud trend due to climate change as the sum of the observed cloud/meteorology relationships multiplied by the multi-model mean meteorological trends. The results may provide an observational and model constraint on climate sensitivity.

  4. Climate effects of land use changes and anthropogenic impact on surface radiation

    OpenAIRE

    Kvalevåg, Maria Malene

    2009-01-01

    The fourth assessment report on climate change (AR4) was released in 2007 and the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) derive an increase of 0.74 ± 0.18°C in the 100 year global mean surface temperature linear trend between 1906 – 2005. IPCC state further that “there is very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming” (IPCC, 2007). The observed global warming has occurred during the same period as a considerable increa...

  5. Environmental tasks of anthropogenic actions and climatic changes in pozo del Molle, Cordoba Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mansilla, L.; Karlsson, A.; Ayala, R.

    2007-01-01

    This work was made in Pozo del Molle town, Rio Segundo, Cordoba. Argentina. The human impact added to climate changes, mainly the increase of precipitations, affects negatively in the environmental problems. In the area, in the last years, the problems that lead to the degradation of the environment were accentuated. The disposition of the final waste disposal has been determined through the following studies: analysis of the geological conditions of the area, consideration of the climatic situation, and the elevation and contamination the phreatic. Also an analysis about the rate of the habitant/day solid residual generation, the distance between the site where is located the urban solid residues and the town, the predominant winds and the vulnerability of the phreatic, which represents the greatest problem of the area, was made. It has been established the alternatives to carry out an appropriate environmental administration. Key words: human impact, climatic changes, environmental problems, phreatic, Pozo del Molle (Argentina). (author)

  6. Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T

    2016-06-01

    The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Vulnerability of African mammals to anthropogenic climate change under conservative land transformation assumptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thuiller, W.; Broennimann, O.; Hughes, G.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Midgley, G.F.; Corsi, F.

    2006-01-01

    Recent observations show that human-induced climate change (CC) and land transformation (LT) are threatening wildlife globally. Thus, there is a need to assess the sensitivity of wildlife on large spatial scales and evaluate whether national parks (NPs), a key conservation tools used to protect

  8. Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milano, Marianne; Reynard, Emmanuel; Köplin, Nina; Weingartner, Rolf

    2015-12-01

    Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

    2014-12-01

    The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (Hbackground as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the anomaly variance. These scaling hindcasts have comparable - or smaller - RMS errors than existing GCM

  10. Climate- and Anthropogenically-Induced Change in the Republic of Tyva

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N.; Parfenova, E.; Kanzai, V.; Westberg, D. J.; Buryiak, L.; Kalenskaya, O.; Kukavskaya, E. A.; Ivanova, G. A.; Stackhouse, P. W.; Sukhinin, A.

    2009-12-01

    Atmosphere Ocean General Circulations Models (AOGCM) are in agreement that Siberia is expected to experience warming in excess of 40% above global mean temperatures by 2100. Moreover, it is predicted temperature increases will be evident in both the summer and winter. In association with changes in climate, the growing season length, the duration of the fire season, the amount of area burned and fire severity are predicted to increase. Increases in extreme fire seasons are already evident across the circumboreal. Fire will be a major catalyst for ecosystem change, which will force ecosystems to move more rapidly towards a new equilibrium with the climate. Bioclimatic model results predict expansive changes in ecosystems, from a landscape dominated by taiga to a landscape dominated by steppe and forest-steppe. The focus of this investigation is on south, central Siberia, specifically Tyva, where one would expect to find the initial signs of climate-induced change. The Sayan mountain range offers relatively abrupt change in ecosystems that are often defined by altitude, temperature and precipitation. Tyva is located at a vulnerable southern border, south of the Sayan, and contains 9 Biospheric Reserves, each representing distinct ecosystems. Tyva is home to several relic Pinus sylvestris forests. January temperature increases have exceeded those predicted by the 2090 Hadley Centre scenario, but July temperatures are below predictions. The growing season length has already increased by ~6 to 12 days. Predicted increases in rainfall are not apparent, and generally, precipitation change has been negative. Consequently, several of the relic pine forests have burned (some repeatedly), and natural regeneration is not visible at several sites, even one that had been re-planted on several occasions. Human influences are evident at the local scale (household use) and in some management zones, where forests are logged and planted regardless of their state of regeneration. We

  11. Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition alters growth responses of European beech (Fagus sylvativa L.) to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Carsten; Niemeyer, Thomas; Fichtner, Andreas; Jansen, Kirstin; Kunz, Matthias; Maneke, Moritz; von Wehrden, Henrik; Quante, Markus; Walmsley, David; von Oheimb, Goddert; Härdtle, Werner

    2018-02-01

    Global change affects the functioning of forest ecosystems and the services they provide, but little is known about the interactive effects of co-occurring global change drivers on important functions such as tree growth and vitality. In the present study we quantified the interactive (i.e. synergistic or antagonistic) effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) on tree growth (in terms of tree-ring width, TRW), taking forest ecosystems with European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) as an example. We hypothesised that (i) N deposition and climatic variables can evoke non-additive responses of the radial increment of beech trees, and (ii) N loads have the potential to strengthen the trees' sensitivity to climate change. In young stands, we found a synergistic positive effect of N deposition and annual mean temperature on TRW, possibly linked to the alleviation of an N shortage in young stands. In mature stands, however, high N deposition significantly increased the trees' sensitivity to increasing annual mean temperatures (antagonistic effect on TRW), possibly due to increased fine root dieback, decreasing mycorrhizal colonization or shifts in biomass allocation patterns (aboveground vs. belowground). Accordingly, N deposition and climatic variables caused both synergistic and antagonistic effects on the radial increment of beech trees, depending on tree age and stand characteristics. Hence, the nature of interactions could mediate the long-term effects of global change drivers (including N deposition) on forest carbon sequestration. In conclusion, our findings illustrate that interaction processes between climatic variables and N deposition are complex and have the potential to impair growth and performance of European beech. This in turn emphasises the importance of multiple-factor studies to foster an integrated understanding and models aiming at improved projections of tree growth responses to co-occurring drivers

  12. Fishers’ local knowledge on impact of climate change and anthropogenic interferences on Hilsa fishery in South Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jahan, Israt; Ahsan, Dewan; Farque, Md Hasan

    2017-01-01

    fishers’ perceptions on effect of climate change and anthropogenic impact on Hilsa fishery at lower Meghna. Fishers’ ecological knowledge indicates that the stock of Hilsa is declining due to several adverse climatic conditions such as increased water temperature, salinity intrusion and low freshwater...... discharge from upstream. Fishers believe that dams and polders have immense effect on river sedimentation which already blockade several upward migratory route of Hilsa. Fishers’ experience shows that intensity of coastal cyclone is gradually increasing, which causes severe physical and economical damage....... The study also indicates that the major constraints to adopt with the change situation are low level of human capital and restricted access to the formal credit system. Therefore, incorporation of local knowledge in governmental policy formulation and public support to improve human skill are essential...

  13. Environmental changes, climate and anthropogenic impact in south-east Tunisia during the last 8 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaouadi, Sahbi; Lebreton, Vincent; Bout-Roumazeilles, Viviane; Siani, Giuseppe; Lakhdar, Rached; Boussoffara, Ridha; Dezileau, Laurent; Kallel, Nejib; Mannai-Tayech, Beya; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

    2016-06-01

    Pollen and clay mineralogical analyses of a Holocene sequence from Sebkha Boujmel (southern Tunisia) trace the climatic and environmental dynamics in the lower arid bioclimatic zone over the last 8000 years. During the mid- to late Holocene transition, between ca. 8 and 3 ka BP, a succession of five wet-dry oscillations is recorded. An intense arid event occurs between ca. 5.7 and 4.6 ka BP. This episode marks the onset of a long-term aridification trend with a progressive retreat of Mediterranean woody xerophytic vegetation and of grass steppes. It ends with the establishment of pre-desert ecosystems around 3 ka BP. The millennial-scale climate change recorded in the data from Sebkha Boujmel is consistent with records from the south and east Mediterranean, as well as with climatic records from the desert region for the end of the African Humid Period (AHP). Eight centennial climatic events are recorded at Sebkha Boujmel and these are contemporary with those recorded in the Mediterranean and in the Sahara. They indicate a clear coupling between the southern Mediterranean and the Sahara before 3 ka BP. The event at 4.2 ka BP is not evidenced and the link between events recorded in Sebkha Boujmel and the North Atlantic cooling events is clearer from ca. 3 ka BP onwards. These variations indicate the importance of climatic determinism in the structuring of landscapes, with the establishment of the arid climatic conditions of the late Holocene. It is only from ca. 3 ka BP onwards that the dynamic of plant associations is modified by both human activity and climatic variability. The climatic episodes identified during the historic period indicate strong regionalisation related to the differential impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) on the Mediterranean Basin. The local human impact on regional ecosystems is recorded in the form of episodes of intensification of pastoral and/or agricultural activities. The development of

  14. Plant species dispersed by Galapagos tortoises surf the wave of habitat suitability under anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis-Soto, Diego; Blake, Stephen; Soultan, Alaaeldin; Guézou, Anne; Cabrera, Fredy; Lötters, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    Native biodiversity on the Galapagos Archipelago is severely threatened by invasive alien species. On Santa Cruz Island, the abundance of introduced plant species is low in the arid lowlands of the Galapagos National Park, but increases with elevation into unprotected humid highlands. Two common alien plant species, guava (Psidium guajava) and passion fruit (Passiflora edulis) occur at higher elevations yet their seeds are dispersed into the lowlands by migrating Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.). Tortoises transport large quantities of seeds over long distances into environments in which they have little or no chance of germination and survival under current climate conditions. However, climate change is projected to modify environmental conditions on Galapagos with unknown consequences for the distribution of native and introduced biodiversity. We quantified seed dispersal of guava and passion fruit in tortoise dung piles and the distribution of adult plants along two elevation gradients on Santa Cruz to assess current levels of 'wasted' seed dispersal. We computed species distribution models for both taxa under current and predicted future climate conditions. Assuming that tortoise migratory behaviour continues, current levels of "wasted" seed dispersal in lowlands were projected to decline dramatically in the future for guava but not for passion fruit. Tortoises will facilitate rapid range expansion for guava into lowland areas within the Galapagos National Park where this species is currently absent. Coupled with putative reduction in arid habitat for native species caused by climate change, tortoise driven guava invasion will pose a serious threat to local plant communities.

  15. Plant species dispersed by Galapagos tortoises surf the wave of habitat suitability under anthropogenic climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Ellis-Soto

    Full Text Available Native biodiversity on the Galapagos Archipelago is severely threatened by invasive alien species. On Santa Cruz Island, the abundance of introduced plant species is low in the arid lowlands of the Galapagos National Park, but increases with elevation into unprotected humid highlands. Two common alien plant species, guava (Psidium guajava and passion fruit (Passiflora edulis occur at higher elevations yet their seeds are dispersed into the lowlands by migrating Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.. Tortoises transport large quantities of seeds over long distances into environments in which they have little or no chance of germination and survival under current climate conditions. However, climate change is projected to modify environmental conditions on Galapagos with unknown consequences for the distribution of native and introduced biodiversity. We quantified seed dispersal of guava and passion fruit in tortoise dung piles and the distribution of adult plants along two elevation gradients on Santa Cruz to assess current levels of 'wasted' seed dispersal. We computed species distribution models for both taxa under current and predicted future climate conditions. Assuming that tortoise migratory behaviour continues, current levels of "wasted" seed dispersal in lowlands were projected to decline dramatically in the future for guava but not for passion fruit. Tortoises will facilitate rapid range expansion for guava into lowland areas within the Galapagos National Park where this species is currently absent. Coupled with putative reduction in arid habitat for native species caused by climate change, tortoise driven guava invasion will pose a serious threat to local plant communities.

  16. Estimation of water storage changes in small endorheic lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (Northern Kazakhstan, Central Asia); the effect of climate change and anthropogenic influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yapiyev, Vadim; Sagintayev, Zhanay; Verhoef, Anne; Samarkhanov, Kanat; Jumassultanova, Saltanat

    2017-04-01

    Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. It has been observed in recent decades that water-limited steppe regions of Central Asia are among ecosystems found to exhibit enhanced responses to climate variability. In fact, the largest share of worldwide net loss of permanent water extent is geographically concentrated in the Central Asia and Middle East regions attributed to both climate variability/change and human activities impacts. We used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and high resolution Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia, for the period 2000-2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, hydrometeorological network observations as well as regional climate model projections we evaluate the impacts of past thirty years and future climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. The anthropogenic water consumption was estimated based on data collected at a local water supply company and regulation authorities. One the one hand historical in-situ observations and future climate projections do not show a significant change in precipitation in BNNP. On the other hand both observations and the model demonstrate steadily rising air temperatures in the area. It is concluded that the long-term decline in water levels for most of these lakes can be largely attributed to climate change (but only via changes in air temperature, causing evaporation to exceed precipitation) and not to direct anthropogenic influences such as increased water withdrawals. In addition, the two largest lakes, showing the highest historical water level decline, do not have sufficient water drainage basin area to sustain water levels under increased evaporation rates.

  17. Application of Satellite Remote Sensing to Identify Climatic and Anthropogenic Changes Related to Water and Health Conditions in Emerging Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.

    2014-12-01

    By 2050, more than 70% of the world's population is expected to be living in a city. In many of the urbanizing regions in Asia and Africa, most new development is taking place without adequate urban or regional planning, and a majority population is crowded into densely populated unplanned settlements, also known as slums. During the same period, precipitation and temperature patterns are likely to see significant changes in many of these regions while coastal megacities will have to accommodate sea-level rise in their ecosystems. The rapid increase in population is usually observed in fringes of the urban sprawl without adequate water or sanitation facilities or access to other municipal amenities (such as utilities, healthcare, and education). Collectively, these issues make the ever increasing slum dwellers in emerging megacities significantly vulnerable to a combination of climatic and anthropogenic threats. However, how the growth of unplanned urban and peri-urban sprawl and simultaneous change in climatic patterns have impacted public health in the emerging megacities remain largely unexplored due to lack of readily available and usable data. We employ a number of Remote Sensing products (GRACE, LANDSAT, MODIS) to bridge above knowledge gaps and to identify relevant hydrologic and anthropogenic changes in emerging megacities that are most vulnerable due to the climate-water-health nexus. We explore one of the largest and the fastest growing megacities in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh - on identifying and investigating the changes in the water environment and growth of slum areas, and impact on water services and health outcomes. The hydroclimatology of South Asia is highly seasonal and the asymmetric availability of water affects vast areas of Bangladesh differently in space and time, exposing the population of Dhaka region to both droughts and floods and periodic spring-fall outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera and rotavirus. This research

  18. Long term prospective of the Seine River system: Confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ducharne, A.; Baubion, C.; Beaudoin, N.; Benoit, M.; Billen, G.; Brisson, N.; Garnier, J.; Kieken, H.; Lebonvallet, S.; Ledoux, E.; Mary, B.; Mignolet, C.; Poux, X.; Sauboua, E.; Schott, C.; Thery, S.; Viennot, P.

    2007-01-01

    To explore the evolution of a human impacted river, the Seine (France), over the 21st century, three driving factors were examined: climate, agriculture, and point source inputs of domestic and industrial origin. Three future scenarios were constructed, by modification of a baseline representative of recent conditions. A climate change scenario, based on simulations by a general circulation model driven by the SRES-A2 scenario of radiative forcing, accounts for an average warming of + 3.3 deg. C over the watershed and marked winter increase and summer decrease in precipitation. To illustrate a possible reduction in nitrate pollution from agricultural origin, a scenario of good agricultural practices was considered, introducing catch crops and a 20% decrease in nitrogen fertilisation. Future point source pollution was estimated following the assumptions embedded in scenario SRES-A2 regarding demographic, economic and technologic changes, leading to reductions of 30 to 75% compared to 2000, depending on the pollutants. Four models, addressing separate components of the river system (agronomical model, hydrogeological model, land surface model and water quality model), were used to analyse the relative impact of these scenarios on water quality, in light of their impact on hydrology and crop production. The first-order driving factor of water quality over the 21st century is the projected reduction of point source pollution, inducing a noticeable decrease in eutrophication and oxygen deficits downstream from Paris. The impact of climate change on these terms is driven by the warming of the water column. It enhances algal growth in spring and the loss factors responsible for phytoplankton mortality in late summer (grazers and viruses). In contrast, increased seasonal contrasts in river discharge have a negligible impact on river water quality, as do the changes in riverine nitrate concentration, which never gets limiting. The latter changes have a similar magnitude

  19. Long term prospective of the Seine River system: confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducharne, A; Baubion, C; Beaudoin, N; Benoit, M; Billen, G; Brisson, N; Garnier, J; Kieken, H; Lebonvallet, S; Ledoux, E; Mary, B; Mignolet, C; Poux, X; Sauboua, E; Schott, C; Théry, S; Viennot, P

    2007-04-01

    To explore the evolution of a human impacted river, the Seine (France), over the 21st century, three driving factors were examined: climate, agriculture, and point source inputs of domestic and industrial origin. Three future scenarios were constructed, by modification of a baseline representative of recent conditions. A climate change scenario, based on simulations by a general circulation model driven by the SRES-A2 scenario of radiative forcing, accounts for an average warming of +3.3 degrees C over the watershed and marked winter increase and summer decrease in precipitation. To illustrate a possible reduction in nitrate pollution from agricultural origin, a scenario of good agricultural practices was considered, introducing catch crops and a 20% decrease in nitrogen fertilisation. Future point source pollution was estimated following the assumptions embedded in scenario SRES-A2 regarding demographic, economic and technologic changes, leading to reductions of 30 to 75% compared to 2000, depending on the pollutants. Four models, addressing separate components of the river system (agronomical model, hydrogeological model, land surface model and water quality model), were used to analyse the relative impact of these scenarios on water quality, in light of their impact on hydrology and crop production. The first-order driving factor of water quality over the 21st century is the projected reduction of point source pollution, inducing a noticeable decrease in eutrophication and oxygen deficits downstream from Paris. The impact of climate change on these terms is driven by the warming of the water column. It enhances algal growth in spring and the loss factors responsible for phytoplankton mortality in late summer (grazers and viruses). In contrast, increased seasonal contrasts in river discharge have a negligible impact on river water quality, as do the changes in riverine nitrate concentration, which never gets limiting. The latter changes have a similar magnitude

  20. Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Whetton, Peter H.; Jones, Richard G.

    2001-01-01

    shows that a number of consistent patterns of regional change across models and scenarios are now emerging. For temperature, in addition to maximum winter warming in northern high latitudes, warming much greater than the global average is found over Central Asia, Tibet and the Mediterranean region...... show a consistent decrease in precipitation, such as Southern Africa and Australia in winter, the Mediterranean region in summer and Central America in both seasons. Possible physical mechanisms that lead to the simulated changes are discussed.......We analyse temperature and precipitation changes for the late decades of the 21st century (with respect to present day conditions) over 23 land regions of the world from 18 recent transient, climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The analysis...

  1. The Effects of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change on Global and Regional Climate in the Preindustrial Holocene: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J. O.

    2014-12-01

    The recent development of anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) scenarios that cover all or part of the preindustrial Holocene (11,700 BP to ~AD 1850) has led to a number of modelling studies on the impacts of land cover change on climate, using both GCMs and regional climate models. Because most ALCC scenarios arrive at similar estimates of anthropogenic deforestation by the late preindustrial, most models agree that the net biogeophysical effect of ALCC by AD 1850 is regional cooling at mid- to high-latitudes and warming and drying over the tropics and subtropics. In particular, tropical deforestation appears to lead to local amplification of externally forced drought cycles, e.g., from ENSO. The spatial extent of these climate changes varies between models because the choice of ALCC scenario leads to large differences in the initial forcing. Those model studies that considered biogeochemical feedbacks show that the importance of preindustrial CO2 emissions ranges from being insignificant to larger than the global biogeophysical feedback, depending on assumptions made about potential natural atmospheric CO2 at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. While the net magnitude of deforestation is similar among ALCC scenarios at AD 1850, the timing of deforestation varies widely, which, in addition to affecting the inferred importance of biogeochemical feedbacks, leads to large differences in the estimated importance of ALCC on climate earlier in the Holocene. For example, modelling experiments performed on Europe and the Mediterranean representing conditions at the peak of the Roman Empire or in Mesoamerica for the Classic Maya period show large differences in the estimated importance of the biogeophysical feedback to regional climate depending on the ALCC scenario used. The wide variety of results gained so far from ALCC and climate modelling experiments shows that the question of "how much did humans influence the state of the Earth System before the

  2. Impact of climate change and anthropogenic pressure on the water resources of India: challenges in management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Shadananan Nair

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Freshwater resources of India are getting fast degraded and depleted from the changing climate and pressure of fast rising population. Changing intensity and seasonality of rainfall affect quantity and quality of water. Most of the rivers are polluted far above safety limits from the untreated domestic, industrial and agricultural effluents. Changes in the intensity, frequency and tracks of storms salinate coastal aquifers. Aquifers are also under the threat from rising sea level. Groundwater in urban limits and industrial zones are far beyond safety limits. Large-scale destruction of wetlands for industries and residential complexes has affected the quality of surface and groundwater resources in most parts of India. Measures to maintain food security and the new developments schemes such as river linking will further deteriorate the water resources. Falling water availability leads to serious health issues and various socio-economic issues. India needs urgent and appropriate adaptation strategies in the water sector.

  3. Impact of climate change and anthropogenic pressure on the water resources of India: challenges in management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadananan Nair, K.

    2016-10-01

    Freshwater resources of India are getting fast degraded and depleted from the changing climate and pressure of fast rising population. Changing intensity and seasonality of rainfall affect quantity and quality of water. Most of the rivers are polluted far above safety limits from the untreated domestic, industrial and agricultural effluents. Changes in the intensity, frequency and tracks of storms salinate coastal aquifers. Aquifers are also under the threat from rising sea level. Groundwater in urban limits and industrial zones are far beyond safety limits. Large-scale destruction of wetlands for industries and residential complexes has affected the quality of surface and groundwater resources in most parts of India. Measures to maintain food security and the new developments schemes such as river linking will further deteriorate the water resources. Falling water availability leads to serious health issues and various socio-economic issues. India needs urgent and appropriate adaptation strategies in the water sector.

  4. Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryghaug, Marianne; Sørensen, Knut Holtan; Naess, Robert

    2011-11-01

    This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics.

  5. Climatic impacts of anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iversen, T. [Oslo Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. Anthropogenic production of aerosols is mainly connected with combustion of fossil fuel. Measured by particulate mass, the anthropogenic sulphate production is the dominating source of aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere. Particles emitted in mechanical processes, fly ash etc. are less important because of their shorter atmospheric residence time. Possible climatological effects of anthropogenic aerosols are usually classified in two groups: direct and indirect. Direct effects are alterations of the radiative heating budget due to the aerosol particles in clear air. Indirect effects involve the interaction between particles and cloud processes. A simplified one-layer radiation model gave cooling in the most polluted mid-latitude areas and heating due to soot absorption in the Arctic. This differential trend in heating rates may have significant effects on atmospheric meridional circulations, which is important for the atmosphere as a thermodynamic system. Recently the description of sulphur chemistry in the hemispheric scale dispersion model has been improved and will be used in a model for Mie scattering and absorption

  6. Background Ozone in Southern China During 1994-2015: Role of Anthropogenic Emission and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, T.; Zhang, L.; Poon, S.

    2016-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Changes in background ozone concentrations and underlying causes are therefore of great interest to the scientific community and governments. Compared with North America and Europe, long-term measurements of background ozone in China are scarce. This study reports the longest continuous ozone record in southern China measured at a background site (Hok Tsui) in Hong Kong during 1994-2015. The analysis of the 22-year record shows that the surface ozone in the background atmosphere of southern China has been increasing, with an overall Theil-Sen estimated rate of 0.43 ppbv/yr. Compared with our previous results during 1994-2007 (Wang et al., 2009), the average rate of increase has slowed down over during 2008-2015 (0.32 vs. 0.58 ppbv/yr), possibly due to smaller increase or even decrease in ozone precursors emission in mainland China in recent years. The average rates of change show significant seasonal differences with the largest rate occurring in summer (0.32, 0.55, 0.52, and 0.36 ppbv/yr in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively). Monthly mean ozone concentrations at Hok Tsui are compared against an East Asian Monsoon index. It is found that only the summer-time ozone over period 2008-2015 has a strong positive correlation with the index, suggesting that climate might have played an important role in driving the ozone increase observed in summer since 2008. The ozone trend in Hong Kong will be compared to those from other regions in East Asia, and the role of emission changes in Asia will be discussed.

  7. Emergence of acute/subacute infant-juvenile paracoccidioidomycosis in Northeast Argentina: Effect of climatic and anthropogenic changes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giusiano, Gustavo; Aguirre, Clarisa; Vratnica, Claudia; Rojas, Florencia; Corallo, Teresa; Cattana, María Emilia; Fernández, Mariana; Mussin, Javier; de Los Angeles Sosa, María

    2018-01-13

    Argentina has two endemic areas of paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM). Bordering Paraguay and Brazil, Northeast Argentina (NEA) comprises the area with the highest incidence where the chronic adult clinical form has historically been reported. Juvenile form in children and adolescents is rare in this area since only one case was reported in the last 10 years. Despite this, between 2010 and 2012, several cases of acute/subacute clinical forms in children aged 10 to 16 (median 12) were detected. In the last decade, the NEA region has been exposed to ecological variations as consequences of certain climatic and anthropogenic changes, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon during 2009, and deforestation. The region has also suffered from the significant ecological effects of the construction of one of the biggest hydroelectric dams of South America. This study aims to describe clinical and epidemiological aspects of acute/subacute PCM cases detected in children from NEA and to discuss climatic and anthropogenic changes as possible contributing factors in the emergence of this disease in children. This acute/subacute PCM cluster was characterized by severe disseminated and aggressive presentations to localized form, with a high spectrum of clinical manifestations uncommonly observed. Due to the lack of experience in acute/subacute PCM in children in the studied area and the atypical clinical manifestations observed, the diagnosis was delayed. In order to avoid misdiagnosis, a higher level of suspicion is now required in NEA and countries bordering the southern part of the endemic area, which are affected by the changes discussed in this article. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The International Society for Human and Animal Mycology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Water supply sustainability and adaptation strategies under anthropogenic and climatic changes of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Lila; Ruelland, Denis; Estupina, Valérie Borrell; Dezetter, Alain; Servat, Eric

    2015-12-01

    stronger. The environmental sector would be hardly satisfied especially in summer with low resilience levels. The adaptation strategies considered in this study would not be sufficient to cope with both anthropogenic and climate changes. Other strategies were discussed based on known examples in the Mediterranean context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathis, Moritz; Elizalde, Alberto; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2017-06-01

    Climate change impact studies for the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) make use of various dynamical downscaling strategies in the experimental setup of regional ocean circulation models. Projected change signals from coupled and uncoupled downscalings with different domain sizes and forcing global and regional models show substantial uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate influences of the downscaling strategy on projected changes in the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the NWES. Our results indicate that uncertainties due to different downscaling strategies are similar to uncertainties due to the choice of the parent global model and the downscaling regional model. Downscaled change signals reveal to depend stronger on the downscaling strategy than on the model skills in simulating present-day conditions. Uncoupled downscalings of sea surface temperature (SST) changes are found to be tightly constrained by the atmospheric forcing. The incorporation of coupled air-sea interaction, by contrast, allows the regional model system to develop independently. Changes in salinity show a higher sensitivity to open lateral boundary conditions and river runoff than to coupled or uncoupled atmospheric forcings. Dependencies on the downscaling strategy for changes in SST, salinity, stratification and circulation collectively affect changes in nutrient import and biological primary production.

  10. Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathis, Moritz; Elizalde, Alberto; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2018-04-01

    Climate change impact studies for the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) make use of various dynamical downscaling strategies in the experimental setup of regional ocean circulation models. Projected change signals from coupled and uncoupled downscalings with different domain sizes and forcing global and regional models show substantial uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate influences of the downscaling strategy on projected changes in the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the NWES. Our results indicate that uncertainties due to different downscaling strategies are similar to uncertainties due to the choice of the parent global model and the downscaling regional model. Downscaled change signals reveal to depend stronger on the downscaling strategy than on the model skills in simulating present-day conditions. Uncoupled downscalings of sea surface temperature (SST) changes are found to be tightly constrained by the atmospheric forcing. The incorporation of coupled air-sea interaction, by contrast, allows the regional model system to develop independently. Changes in salinity show a higher sensitivity to open lateral boundary conditions and river runoff than to coupled or uncoupled atmospheric forcings. Dependencies on the downscaling strategy for changes in SST, salinity, stratification and circulation collectively affect changes in nutrient import and biological primary production.

  11. Holocene environmental and parasequence development of the St. Jones Estuary, Delaware (USA): Foraminiferal proxies of natural climatic and anthropogenic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leorri, E.; Martin, R.; McLaughlin, P.

    2006-01-01

    The benthic foraminiferal record of marshes located along western Delaware Bay (St. Jones Estuary, USA) reflects the response of estuaries to sea-level and paleoclimate change during the Holocene. System tracts are recognized and within them parasequences based on sedimentological and foraminiferal assemblages identification. The parasequences defined by foraminiferal assemblages appear correlative with rapid Holocene climate changes that are of worldwide significance: 6000-5000, 4200-3800, 3500-2500, 1200-1000, and 600??cal years BP. Following postglacial sea-level rise, modern subestuaries and marshes in the region began to develop between 6000 and 4000??years BP, depending on their proximity to the mouth of Delaware Bay and coastal geomorphology. Initial sediments were fluvial in origin, with freshwater marshes established around 4000??years BP. The subsequent sea-level transgression occurred sufficiently slowly that freshwater marshes alternated with salt marshes at the same sites to around 3000??years BP. Locally another two transgressions are identified at 1800 and 1000??years BP respectively. Marine influence increased in the estuaries until 600??years BP (Little Ice Age), when regression occurred. Sea-level began to rise again during the mid-19th Century at the end of the Little Ice Age, when marshes became established. The presence of a sand lens in the upper and middle estuary and the reduction in the number of tests in the top samples in cores from the same area also suggest an anthropogenic influence. The estuary infill resulted in a sharp transgressive sequence, represented by salt marsh foraminiferal assemblages in the upper part of the cores. The increase in marsh foraminifera in both areas suggests an increase in marine influence that might be due to the transgression beginning at the end of the Little Ice Age about 150-180??years ago coupled with anthropogenic straightening of the channel in 1913. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Climate data, analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Philip D. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-31

    Gridded Temperature Under prior/current support, we completed and published (Jones et al., 2012) the fourth major update to our global land dataset of near-surface air temperatures, CRUTEM4. This is one of the most widely used records of the climate system, having been updated, maintained and further developed with DoE support since the 1980s. We have continued to update the CRUTEM4 (Jones et al., 2012) database that is combined with marine data to produce HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012). The emphasis in our use of station temperature data is to access as many land series that have been homogenized by National Meteorological Services (NMSs, including NCDC/NOAA, Asheville, NC). Unlike the three US groups monitoring surface temperatures in a similar way, we do not infill areas that have no or missing data. We can only infill such regions in CRUTEM4 by accessing more station temperature series. During early 2014, we have begun the extensive task of updating as many of these series as possible using data provided by some NMSs and also through a number of research projects and programs around the world. All the station data used in CRUTEM4 have been available since 2009, but in Osborn and Jones (2014) we have made this more usable using a Google Earth interface (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/crutem/ge/ ). We have recently completed the update of our infilled land multi-variable dataset (CRU TS 3.10, Harris et al., 2014). This additionally produces complete land fields (except for the Antarctic) for temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, vapour pressure and sunshine/cloud. Using this dataset we have calculated sc-PDSI (self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index) data and compared with other PDSI datasets (Trenberth et al., 2014). Also using CRU TS 3.10 and Reanalysis datasets, we showed no overall increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns (Huntingford et al., 2013). Harris et al. (2014) is an update of an earlier

  13. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  14. Microbial and biogeochemical dynamics in glacier forefields are sensitive to century-scale climate and anthropogenic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, James A.; Anesio, Alexandre M.; Arndt, Sandra

    2017-04-01

    The recent retreat of glaciers and ice sheets as a result of global warming exposes forefield soils that are rapidly colonised by microbes. These ecosystems are dominant in high-latitude carbon and nutrient cycles as microbial activity drives biogeochemical transformations within these newly exposed soils. Despite this, little is known about the response of these emerging ecosystems and associated biogeochemical cycles to projected changes in environmental factors due to human impacts. Here, we applied the model SHIMMER to quantitatively explore the sensitivity of biogeochemical dynamics in the forefield of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard, to future changes in climate and anthropogenic forcings including soil temperature, snow cover, and nutrient and organic substrate deposition. Model results indicated that the rapid warming of the Arctic, as well as an increased deposition of organic carbon and nutrients, may impact primary microbial colonisers in Arctic soils. Warming and increased snow-free conditions resulted in enhanced bacterial production and an accumulation of biomass that was sustained throughout 200 years of soil development. Nitrogen deposition stimulated growth during the first 50 years of soil development following exposure. Increased deposition of organic carbon sustained higher rates of bacterial production and heterotrophic respiration leading to decreases in net ecosystem production and thus net CO2 efflux from soils. Pioneer microbial communities were particularly susceptible to future changes. All future climate simulations encouraged a switch from allochthonously-dominated young soils (human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels and the enhanced deposition of nitrogen and organic carbon, has the potential to considerably affect the biogeochemical development of recently exposed Arctic soils in the present day and for centuries into the future. These effects must be acknowledged when attempting to make accurate predictions of the future

  15. Recent and Future Anthropogenic Land-Cover Change in the United States and Its Impact on Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Liu, J.; Zhu, Z.; Barnes, C. A.; Sherba, J.

    2014-12-01

    Forestry, cultivation, and urbanization result in distinct changes in land-cover, which in turn affect biogeochemical and biogeophysical process. Due to the nature of each type of land conversion, the associated climate forcing response may range from short to long-term, with some persisting for decades or longer. To understand how anthropogenic land cover change may impact the climate system in the future, projections are often developed based on an overarching scenario framework. An increasingly expanding set of land-use change scenarios has been developed to assess global environmental change under a range of alternative storylines. However, utilizing these frameworks at local to regional scales needed for environmental management is problematic due to their coarse spatial and (often) thematic resolution. We have developed techniques to extend global change projections to ecoregions of the conterminous United States, while maintaining coherence at global and local scales. We present a comparison of 1) scenario frameworks, and 2) scenario downscaling methods, and the effect each has on the composition of land-cover over the 21st century. Second, we demonstrate how historical and future projections of land-cover change impact at the regional scale 1) the capacity of ecosystems to store and sequester carbon, and 2) land-cover albedo induced changes to surface radiative forcing. Downscaled projections for IPCC SRES scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways were developed along with business-as-usual scenarios based on local scale land-use histories. Three downscaling techniques were explored, where coarse-scale gridded data (half-degree) was allocated to ecoregions based on 1) an area weighting method, 2) land-cover composition, and 3) land-use histories. Each resulting scenario was then simulated using stochastic Monte Carlo methods within a state and transition simulation model. In addition to land-cover change, we also tracked changes across a range of

  16. Influence of anthropogenic alterations on geomorphic response to climate variations and change in San Francisco Bay-Delta and watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florsheim, J.L.; Dettinger, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    Global warming and attendant sea-level rise may soon impact geomorphic processes in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River and San Francisco Bay Delta systems. During the past two centuries, dramatic anthropogenic changes in sediment supply and pervasive structural controls on rivers and floodplains have altered geomorphic responses to floods throughout a zone that extends upstream from tidally influenced areas to dams that regulate flow. Current geomorphic responses to floods differ from natural responses due to historical actions that concentrated the pre-disturbance multiple-channel and flood-basin system into single channels isolated by levees from increasingly developed floodplains and flood bypass channels, altered flow and sediment regimes, and caused subsidence of leveed Delta Islands. A review of historic and current geomorphic responses to floods illustrates the dominance of structural controls on geomorphic changes in the lowland part of the Sacramento-San Joaquin system. Current climate-change projections for CA suggest that the total volume of snowmelt runoff that may be shifted from spring and added to winter flows is roughly 5 maf/yr, similar to the volume currently available for flood storage in Sierra Nevadan reservoirs. Changes in timing of reservoir releases to accommodate these changes could add to either the magnitude or duration of winter flood peaks, each causing different geomorphic responses. Increased wintertime flows that accompany already large floods could increase overbank flood extent, erosion, and sedimentation, or alternatively increase the depth and strength of confined flows and increase the risk of levee failures. Runoff released from reservoirs as a relatively constant addition to winter baseflow would increase the duration of bankfull or possibly "levee-full" flows. This scenario could lead to bank and levee failure through increased saturation and seepage erosion. Projected sea level rise of 1-2 m would compound vulnerability of

  17. Climatic and anthropogenic factors changing spawning pattern and production zone of Hilsa fishery in the Bay of Bengal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shohidullah Miah

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha Hamilton as a single species accounts 12% for more than half of the total marine catches. About 2% of the entire population of the country is directly or indirectly engaged with Hilsa fishing. Hilsa has a wide geographical distribution in Asia from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea. Particularly large stocks are found in Upper Bay of Bengal (BoB region sustained by the large river systems. The global Hilsa catch is reported 75% from Bangladesh water, 15% from Myanmar, 5% from India and 5% from other countries such as Thailand and Iran. Hilsa is a highly migratory and anadromous fish with the same migratory and same breeding behavior as that of Atlantic Salmon fish (Salmo sp.. Due to various anthropogenic activities, climate change effect, increased siltation and rising of the river basins, the migratory routes as well as spawning grounds of Hilsa are disturbed, displaced or even destroyed. During last two decades hilsa production from inland water declined about 20%, whereas marine water yield increased about 3 times. Major Hilsa to catch has been gradually shifted from inland to marine water. Hilsa fish ascend for spawning migration from sea into estuaries. It has been found that the major spawning areas have been shifted to the lower estuarine regions of Hatia, Sandwip and Bhola. At the spawning ground of Hilsa, the fishing level F=1.36 yr−1, where in the river Meghna the Fmsy=0.6 yr−1 and exploitation rate E=0.70 is (Emsy>0.5. Oceanographic changes viz. high turbidity increased flooding, more tidal action and changes of salinity etc. have accelerated the change of migration patterns of spawning, growth and its production. Hilsa fecundity ranges from 1.5 to 2.0 million eggs for fish ranging in length from 35 to 50 cm. Hilsa fecundity is declining in different areas due to climate change and the declining fecundity impacting greatly on Hilsa production. Due to shifting of the spawning ground at the lower

  18. Bio-monitoring of the most industrialized area in Poland: Trees' response to climate and anthropogenic environmental changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sensuła, Barbara; Wilczyński, Sławomir; Piotrowska, Natalia

    2017-04-01

    Silesia is one of the regions with the highest levels of air pollution in Europe, highly industrialized over the years and highly populated. In this study, trees (Pinus Sylvestris L.)growing in the heavily urbanized area in close proximity to point-source pollution emitters, such as a heat and power plant, nitrogen plant, and steelworks in Silesia (Poland), were analyzed as bio-indicators of contemporary environmental changes. Trees are a very good archive of ecosystem changes, becouse they are sensitive to climate changes and anthropogenic pollution. The pollution impacts human, plants and animal life and different ecosystem processes. The changes in the ecosystem can disturb the metabolism and physiological processes of trees, and consequently, they also have an effect on the wood structure, tree ring width and the isotopic composition of wood and its components. The analysed samples covered the time period of the development of industrialization and the modernization in the industrial sector in Poland. In Poland, the systematic long-term monitoring of air pollutants is generally restricted to rural point-source regions in urban areas. Even for those areas, air pollution emissions were not continually monitored and data is only available for the last decades. Tree ring series that present long-term data can be used to analyse the ecosystem changes, caused by human activities. The conifers investigated in this study have grown for many years under the stress of environmental contamination. We analysed the spatiotemporal distribution of growth reductions, the depth of reduction with respect to the distance from the emitter, the relationship between tree growth and radiocarbon and stable isotope composition and climate during the industry development period and during pro-ecological strategy application. Pines chronologies indicate that trees have a similar sensitivity to most climatic elements of the previous and given year, but there is also observed a different

  19. Spectral characteristics and feature selection of satellite remote sensing data for climate and anthropogenic changes assessment in Bucharest area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria; Savastru, Roxana; Savastru, Dan; Tautan, Marina; Miclos, Sorin; Cristescu, Luminita; Carstea, Elfrida; Baschir, Laurentiu

    2010-05-01

    was suggested. On the basis of analyzing the information quantity of bands, correlation between different bands, spectral absorption characteristics of objects and object separability in bands, a fundamental method of optimum band selection and feature extraction from remote sensing data was discussed. Spectral signatures of different terrain features have been used to extract structural patterns aiming to separate surface units and to classify the general categories. The synergetic analysis and interpretation of the different satellite images (LANDSAT: TM, ETM; MODIS, IKONOS) acquired over a period of more than 20 years reveals significant aspects regarding impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes on urban/periurban environment. It was delimited residential zones of industrial zones which are very often a source of pollution. An important role has urban green cover assessment. Have been emphasized the particularities of the functional zones from different points of view: architectural, streets and urban surface traffic, some components of urban infrastructure as well as habitat quality. The growth of Bucharest urban area in Romania has been a result of a rapid process of industrialization, and also of the increase of urban population. Information on the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of land cover and land use of urban areas is critical to address a wide range of practical problems relating to urban regeneration, urban sustainability and rational planning policy.

  20. Has anthropogenic land-cover change been a significant climate forcing in the past? - An assessment for the Baltic Sea catchment area based on a literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaillard, Marie-Jose; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kleinen, Thomas; Brigitte Nielsen, Anne; Poska, Anneli; Samuelsson, Patrick; Strandberg, Gustav; Trondman, Anna-Kari

    2015-04-01

    We reviewed the recent published scientific literature on land cover-climate interactions at the global and regional spatial scales with the aim to assess whether it is convincingly demonstrated that anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) has been (over the last centuries and millennia) a significant climate forcing at the global scale, and more specifically at the scale of the Baltic Sea catchment area. The conclusions from this review are as follows: i) anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings for which the net direction of the climate response in the past is still not known. The uncertainty is due to the often counteracting temperature responses to the many biogeophysical effects, and to the biogeochemical vs biogeophysical effects; ii) there is no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea area since AD 1850 would have been a major cause of the recent climate warming in the region through a positive biogeochemical feedback; iii) several model studies suggest that boreal reforestation might not be an effective climate warming mitigation tool as it might lead to increased warming through biogeophysical processes; iv) palaeoecological studies indicate a major transformation of the landscape by anthropogenic activities in the southern zone of the study region occurring between 6000 and 3000/2500 calendar years before present (cal. BP) (1) ; v) the only modelling study so far of the biogeophysical effects of past ALCCs on regional climate in Europe suggests that a deforestation of the magnitude of that reconstructed for the past (between 6000 and 200 cal BP) can produce changes in winter and summer temperatures of +/- 1°, the sign of the change depending on the season and the region (2). Thus, if ALCC and their biogeophysical effects did matter in the past, they should matter today and in the future. A still prevailing idea is that planting trees will mitigate climate warming through biogeochemical effects. Therefore, there is

  1. Anthropogenic impacts on the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grassl, H.

    1991-01-01

    The paper briefly describes the global climate system, the constituents of the earth atmosphere, the natural greenhouse effect and its enhancement through man-made impacts, particularly the increasing CO 2 emissions. The establishment of climate models and their information value are explained, referring e.g. to the signs given by experimental data, indicating a global warming. The author stresses the need for international, concerted action to avoid emissions contributing to global warming. (orig.) [de

  2. A first look at the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the future delivery of fluvial sediment to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, Stephen E; Dunn, Frances E; Nicholls, Robert J; Rahman, Munsur; Riddy, Liam

    2015-09-01

    We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) mega-delta. The model was parameterised using high-quality topographic data and forced with daily temperature and precipitation data obtained from downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the period 1971-2100. Three perturbed RCM model runs were selected to quantify the potential range of future climate conditions associated with the SRES A1B scenario. Fluvial sediment delivery rates to the GBM delta associated with these climate data sets are projected to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, albeit with the magnitude of the increase varying across the two catchments. Of the two study basins, the Brahmaputra's fluvial sediment load is predicted to be more sensitive to future climate change. Specifically, by the middle part of the 21(st) century, our model results suggest that sediment loads increase (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline period) over a range of between 16% and 18% (depending on climate model run) for the Ganges, but by between 25% and 28% for the Brahmaputra. The simulated increase in sediment flux emanating from the two catchments further increases towards the end of the 21(st) century, reaching between 34% and 37% for the Ganges and between 52% and 60% for the Brahmaputra by the 2090s. The variability in these changes across the three climate change simulations is small compared to the changes, suggesting they represent a significant increase. The new data obtained in this study offer the first estimate of whether and how anthropogenic climate change may affect the delivery of fluvial sediment to the GBM delta, informing assessments of the future sustainability and resilience of one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas. Specifically, such significant increases in future sediment loads could increase the resilience

  3. An inquiry into the relationships among science, policy and the public: the case of anthropogenic climate change; Betrachtung des Verhaeltnisses zwischen Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit am Beispiel der Diskussion um anthropogene Klimaaenderungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rau, S. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

    2001-07-01

    This thesis present an analysis of qualitative interviews with experts in the field of climate research in which the relation among science, policy and public is discussed. To begin, an overview of the methods and results of climate science is presented. Following, elements of the discourse among science, policy and public are presented in a manner that demonstrates the different ways to look at the problem of anthropogenic climate change. Subsequently, approaches of the sociology of science are introduced in which science is examined as a social process. Here the question is raised up to what extent climate research has taken a problem oriented perspective in which social and political criteria in the treatment of actual risks of global change are taken into account. The results of the analysis indicate that uncertainties in science led to different perspectives regarding the risks of anthropogenic climate change. In this way scientific knowledge itself becomes problematic. Communication of scientific results to policy and public poses a process which is stamped by individual values and preferences. This suggests the possibility that recognition of theories is increasingly determined by extra scientific criteria like resonance in the media and possibility of connection for political measures. (orig.) [German] In dieser Arbeit wird eine Analyse qualitativer Interviews mit Klimaforschern vorgestellt, in denen das Verhaeltnis von Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit diskutiert wird. In einem ersten Schritt wird ein Ueberblick gegeben ueber Methoden und Ergebnisse der gegenwaertigen Klimaforschung. Anschliessend werden Elemente des Diskurses zwischen Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit dargestellt, die unterschiedliche Selektionsmuster der Problematik um anthropogene Klimaaenderungen verdeutlichen. Hiervon ausgehend werden Ansaetze der Wissenschaftssoziologie vorgestellt, mit denen Wissenschaft als sozialer Prozess analysiert wird. Hierbei wird die Frage

  4. Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. G. Streets

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2, nitrate (−0.2 W m−2, organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2, and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2. The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect, mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  5. Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

    2012-01-01

    We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  6. Global change in wilderness areas: disentangling natural and anthropogenic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa J. Graumlich

    2000-01-01

    Human impacts on the Earth’s ecosystems are globally pervasive. Wilderness areas, although largely protected from direct human impact at local scales, nevertheless are subject to global changes in atmospheric composition, climate and biodiversity. Research in wilderness areas plays a critical role in disentangling natural and anthropogenic changes in ecosystems by...

  7. NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhaofei; Wu, Shengjun; Chen, Jilong; Lü, Mingquan

    2017-01-01

    Natural and social environmental changes in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) have received worldwide attention. Identifying interannual changes in vegetation activities in the TGRR is an important task for assessing the impact these changes have on the local ecosystem. We used long-term (1982-2011) satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and climatic and anthropogenic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in the TGRR, as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), downward radiation (RAD), and anthropogenic activities. At the whole TGRR regional scale, a statistically significant overall uptrend in NDVI variations was observed in 1982-2011. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends split by a breakpoint in 1991: NDVI first sharply increased prior to 1991, and then showed a relatively weak rate of increase after 1991. At the pixel scale, most parts of the TGRR experienced increasing NDVI before the 1990s but different trend change types after the 1990s: trends were positive in forests in the northeastern parts, but negative in farmland in southwest parts of the TGRR. The TEM warming trend was the main climate-related driver of uptrending NDVI variations pre-1990s, and decreasing PRE was the main climate factor (42%) influencing the mid-western farmland areas' NDVI variations post-1990s. We also found that anthropogenic factors such as population density, man-made ecological restoration, and urbanization have notable impacts on the TGRR's NDVI variations. For example, large overall trend slopes in NDVI were more likely to appear in TGRR regions with large fractions of ecological restoration within the last two decades. The findings of this study may help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of NDVI variations in the periods before and during TGDP construction for ongoing ecosystem monitoring and assessment in the

  8. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C.-F.

    2018-01-01

    Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

  9. Large increase in dissolved inorganic carbon flux from the Mississippi River to Gulf of Mexico due to climatic and anthropogenic changes over the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Wei; Tian, Hanqin; Tao, Bo; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Cai, Wei-Jun; Lohrenz, Steven E; He, Ruoying; Hopkinson, Charles S

    2015-04-01

    It is recognized that anthropogenic factors have had a major impact on carbon fluxes from land to the ocean during the past two centuries. However, little is known about how future changes in climate, atmospheric CO 2 , and land use may affect riverine carbon fluxes over the 21st century. Using a coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, this study examines potential changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) export from the Mississippi River basin to the Gulf of Mexico during 2010-2099 attributable to climate-related conditions (temperature and precipitation), atmospheric CO 2 , and land use change. Rates of annual DIC export are projected to increase by 65% under the high emission scenario (A2) and 35% under the low emission scenario (B1) between the 2000s and the 2090s. Climate-related changes along with rising atmospheric CO 2 together would account for over 90% of the total increase in DIC export throughout the 21st century. The predicted increase in DIC export from the Mississippi River basin would alter chemistry of the coastal ocean unless appropriate climate mitigation actions are taken in the near future.

  10. The effects of fishing, climate change, and other anthropogenic disturbances on red grouper and other reef fishes in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

    2010-08-01

    In this article, we consider the potential effects of anthropogenic disturbances on marine fish species known or suspected to be habitat engineers. The three species of interest inhabit different marine habitats at different life stages, and therefore can have significant influences across the sea floor at broad spatial scales. The primary species include the shallow-water Atlantic goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara), which inhabits mangrove root systems as juveniles, and caves, shipwrecks, and rocky reefs as adults; red grouper (E. morio), which excavates habitat throughout its benthic life in Karst regions of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, from the coast to the shelf-edge; and tilefish (Lopholatilus chamaeleonticeps), a species that lives on the continental slope and constructs elaborate, pueblo-esque burrows. The anthropogenic disturbances of greatest interest in the Gulf of Mexico include fishing, hypoxia, red tide, oil and gas exploration, and climatic change. We suggest that to understand the broader effects of both natural and anthropogenic disturbances on biomass and productivity in these species requires that we first understand the strength of interactions between them and the other species residing within their communities (e.g., predators, prey, commensals, and mutualists).

  11. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  12. At The Threshold Of The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Sustainable Initiatives In Brazilian Industries In The Context Of Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Zaleski Neto

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The complexityand multiplicity of the possible interactions involved in the phenomenon of anthropogenicclimate change make it difficult, even for eminent scientists, to be absolutelycertain regarding the occurrence of global climate change and its consequences.Nevertheless, there is a consensus that the crisis is already here.  While top-down solutions to this problem arebeing discussed, this paper addresses the bottom-up approach to reducing GHGemissions.   On investigating thebehavior of three leading companies in the drinks, food and paint sector, whichare proactive specifically in relation to the problem of global climate changeand regarding sustainability in general, this study identifies the bestpractices and documents and disseminates them with a view to their implementationin other organizations.   With the use ofa tool containing 51 variables, which are each associated with five scenarios,it was possible to identify the degree to which the companies meet thechallenges imposed by the search for sustainability.  In this context, the overall objective ofthis study was to investigate and identify the behavior of three large companieswhich are leaders in their sector with regard to sustainability and,specifically, their actions aimed at reducing the effects of anthropogenicclimate change.

  13. Long-term genetic monitoring of a riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae]: Direct anthropogenic impact versus climate change effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Herzog

    Full Text Available Modern conservationists call for long term genetic monitoring datasets to evaluate and understand the impact of human activities on natural ecosystems and species on a global but also local scale. However, long-term monitoring datasets are still rare but in high demand to correctly identify, evaluate and respond to environmental changes. In the presented study, a population of the riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae, was monitored over a time period from 1989 to 2013. Study site was an artificial irrigation ditch in one of the last European stone steppes and "nature heritage", the Crau in Southern France. This artificial riverine habitat has an unusual high diversity of odonate species, prominent indicators for evaluating freshwater habitats. A clearing of the canal and destruction of the bank vegetation in 1996 was assumed to have great negative impact on the odonate larval and adult populations. Two mitochondrial markers (CO1 & ND1 and a panel of nuclear microsatellite loci were used to assess the genetic diversity. Over time they revealed a dramatic decline in diversity parameters between the years 2004 and 2007, however not between 1996 and 1997. From 2007 onwards the population shows a stabilizing trend but has not reached the amount of genetic variation found at the beginning of this survey. This decline cannot be referred to the clearing of the canal or any other direct anthropogenic impact. Instead, it is most likely that the populations' decay was due to by extreme weather conditions during the specific years. A severe drought was recorded for the summer months of these years, leading to reduced water levels in the canal causing also other water parameters to change, and therefore impacting temperature sensitive riverine habitat specialists like the O. coerulescens in a significant way. The data provide important insights into population genetic dynamics and metrics not always congruent with traditional

  14. Anthropogenic noise changes arthropod abundances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunkley, Jessie P; McClure, Christopher J W; Kawahara, Akito Y; Francis, Clinton D; Barber, Jesse R

    2017-05-01

    Anthropogenic noise is a widespread and growing form of sensory pollution associated with the expansion of human infrastructure. One specific source of constant and intense noise is that produced by compressors used for the extraction and transportation of natural gas. Terrestrial arthropods play a central role in many ecosystems, and given that numerous species rely upon airborne sounds and substrate-borne vibrations in their life histories, we predicted that increased background sound levels or the presence of compressor noise would influence their distributions. In the second largest natural gas field in the United States (San Juan Basin, New Mexico, USA), we assessed differences in the abundances of terrestrial arthropod families and community structure as a function of compressor noise and background sound level. Using pitfall traps, we simultaneously sampled five sites adjacent to well pads that possessed operating compressors, and five alternate, quieter well pad sites that lacked compressors, but were otherwise similar. We found a negative association between sites with compressor noise or higher levels of background sound and the abundance of five arthropod families and one genus, a positive relationship between loud sites and the abundance of one family, and no relationship between noise level or compressor presence and abundance for six families and two genera. Despite these changes, we found no evidence of community turnover as a function of background sound level or site type (compressor and noncompressor). Our results indicate that anthropogenic noise differentially affects the abundances of some arthropod families. These preliminary findings point to a need to determine the direct and indirect mechanisms driving these observed responses. Given the diverse and important ecological functions provided by arthropods, changes in abundances could have ecological implications. Therefore, we recommend the consideration of arthropods in the environmental

  15. Water sustainability of large cities in the United States from the perspectives of population increase, anthropogenic activities, and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigzaw, Wondmagegn; Hossain, Faisal

    2016-12-01

    Balancing water demand and supply with depleting sources and increasing demand needs a multi-dimensional approach given the pace at which the world is urbanizing. This study selected the contiguous United States (CONUS), 42 specific cities and their river basins to determine: Which basins and cities are more susceptible to increased water shortage? Population, water use, hydrologic model and climate model data from CMIP5 were used. Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 represented different climate change conditions. Period 1 (1950-2004) showed that more areas are affected by monthly runoff and streamflow than annual averages. In some cases, significant decreasing trends in water availability were observed during the summer (June-July-August) and spring (March-April-May) seasons. The second period (2005-2049) indicated an annual increasing trend (more water available) with higher intensity for the RCP6 scenario. Summer and spring showed areas of decreasing trend (less water available) for RCP4.5 and RCP6. Period 3 (2050-2099) exhibited a decreasing trend for the RCP2.6 (Western and Central CONUS, Great Lakes, and FL), RCP4.5 (Southwest CONUS), RCP6 (Western United States), and Central CONUS (RCP8.5). The Mississippi River has a mixed sensitivity to future climate change. The Central Valley of California, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Tucson can face further challenges as the Colorado River becomes depleted. Seawater desalination and inter-basin water transfer can be considered in future and present policies and structural developments. The West, Southeastern Coast, and FL may consider desalination, while the West and Central CONUS can use the Mississippi for inter-basin transfer.

  16. Anthropogenic Sulfate, Clouds, and Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghan, Steven J.

    1997-01-01

    This research work is a joint effort between research groups at the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Virginia Tech University, Georgia Institute of Technology, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University. It has been jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In this research, a detailed tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model that predicts oxidant concentrations as well as concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosols has been coupled to a general circulation model that distinguishes between cloud water mass and cloud droplet number. The coupled model system has been first validated and then used to estimate the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfur emissions. Both the direct radiative impact of the aerosols and their indirect impact through their influence on cloud droplet number are represented by distinguishing between sulfuric acid vapor and fresh and aged sulfate aerosols, and by parameterizing cloud droplet nucleation in terms of vertical velocity and the number concentration of aged sulfur aerosols. Natural sulfate aerosols, dust, and carbonaceous and nitrate aerosols and their influence on the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, through competition as cloud condensation nuclei, will also be simulated. Parallel simulations with and without anthropogenic sulfur emissions are performed for a global domain. The objectives of the research are: To couple a state-of-the-art tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model with a global climate model. To use field and satellite measurements to evaluate the treatment of tropospheric chemistry and aerosol physics in the coupled model. To use the coupled model to simulate the radiative (and ultimately climatic) impacts of anthropogenic sulfur emissions.

  17. Potential climatic effects of anthropogenic aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pueschel, R.F.

    1993-01-01

    Aerosols act as part of the climate system through their influence on solar and terrestrial radiation. The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the reduction of visibility is explored in this chapter. Elemental carbon has been identified as the most effective visibility-reducing species. Most of the visibility reduction is due to particles with diameter smaller than 2.5 μm. Studies indicate that sulfate is also a very important aerosol species that results in low visibility and high turbidity. Radiative properties such as aerosol single-scattering albedo values and absorption-to-backscatter ratios purported to produce warming or cooling effects of aerosols are discussed. It is concluded that aerosol clouds have a tendency to cool when they are over a low-albedo surface and have a tendency to warm when they are over high-albedo surfaces such as snow. Anthropogenic aerosols have a tendency to warm the earth's atmospheric system, based on calculations and assumed aerosol optical properties. However, this effect is somewhat offset by the absorption and re-emission into space of infrared terrestrial radiation. The net effect depends on the ratio of the absorption coefficients in the visible and infrared and also on the surface albedo. The effects on infrared radiation are documented for two anthropogenic aerosol sources in the United States, the Denver metropolitan area and power plant plumes in New Mexico, through calculations and measurements. Measured cooling rates within an aerosol plume are not sufficient to offset the warming rate due to absorption of short-wave radiation. Research indicates that anthropogenic aerosols can possibly cause local-scale warming of the atmosphere, but global-scale climatic effects remain an open question

  18. Vulnerability of the Nigerian coast: An insight into sea level rise owing to climate change and anthropogenic activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danladi, Iliya Bauchi; Kore, Basiru Mohammed; Gül, Murat

    2017-10-01

    Coastal areas are important regions in the world as they host huge population, diverse ecosystems and natural resources. However, owing to their settings, elevations and proximities to the sea, climate change (global warming) and human activities are threatening issues. Herein, we report the coastline changes and possible future threats related to sea level rise owing to global warming and human activities in the coastal region of Nigeria. Google earth images, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and geological maps were used. Using google earth images, coastal changes for the past 43 years, 3 years prior to and after the construction of breakwaters along Goshen Beach Estate (Lekki) were examined. Additionally, coastline changes along Lekki Phase I from 2013 to 2016 were evaluated. The DEM map was used to delineate 0-2 m, 2-5 m and 5-10 m asl which correspond to undifferentiated sands and gravels to clays on the geological map. The results of the google earth images revealed remarkable erosion along both Lekki and Lekki Phase I, with the destruction of a lagoon in Lekki Phase I. Based on the result of the DEM map and geology, elevations of 0-2 m, 2-5 m and 5-10 m asl were interpreted as highly risky, moderately risky and risky respectively. Considering factors threatening coastal regions, the erosion and destruction of the lagoon along the Nigerian coast may be ascribed to sea level rise as a result of global warming and intense human activities respectively.

  19. Changes in Stream Flow and Their Relationships with Climatic Variations and Anthropogenic Activities in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaojun Gu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Poyang Lake Basin has been suffering from severe water problems such as floods and droughts. This has led to great adverse impacts on local ecosystems and water resource utilization. It is therefore important to understand stream flow changes and their driving factors. In this paper, the dynamics of stream flow and precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin between 1961 and 2012 were evaluated with the Mann–Kendall test, Theil–Sen approaches, Pettitt test, and Pearson’s correlation. Stream flow was measured at the outlets of five major tributaries of Poyang Lake, while precipitation was recorded by fourteen meteorological stations located within the Poyang Lake Basin. Results showed that annual stream flow of all tributaries and the precipitation over the study area had insignificant (P > 0.1 temporal trends and change points, while significant trends and shifts were found in monthly scale. Stream flow concentration indices (SCI at Waizhou, Meigang, and Wanjiabu stations showed significant (P < 0.05 decreasing trends with change points emerging in 1984 at Waizhou and 1978 at Wanjiabu, while there was no significant temporal trend and change point detected for the precipitation concentration indices (PCI. Correlation analysis indicated that area-average stream flow was closely related to area-average precipitation, but area-average SCI was insignificantly correlated with area-average PCI after change point (1984. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO had greater impacts on stream flow than other climate indices, and La Niña events played a more important role in stream flow changes than EI Niño. Human activities, particularly in terms of reservoir constructions, largely altered the intra-annual distribution of stream flow but its effects on the amount of stream flow were relatively low. Results of this study provided a useful reference to regional water resource management and the prevention of flood and drought disasters.

  20. Past climate change and recent anthropogenic activities affect genetic structure and population demography of the greater long-tailed hamster in northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Junbin; Xiao, Zhenlong; Li, Chuanhai; Wang, Fusheng; Liao, Jicheng; Fu, Jinzhong; Zhang, Zhibin

    2015-09-01

    The genetic diversity and the spatial structure of a species are likely consequences of both past and recent evolutionary processes, but relevant studies are still rare in East Asia where the Pleistocene climate has unique influences. In this study, we examined the impact of past climate change and recent anthropogenic activities on the genetic structure and population size of the greater long-tailed hamster (Tscherskia triton), an agricultural rodent pest species in northern China. DNA sequence data of 2 mitochondrial genes and genotypic data of 11 microsatellite DNA loci from 41 populations (545 individuals) were gathered. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses, as well as species distribution modeling and coalescent simulations, were conducted to infer its historical and demographic patterns and processes. Two deeply diverged mitochondrial clades were recovered. A small one was restricted to the Shandong Peninsula while the main clade was further divided into 3 geographic clusters by their microsatellite DNA genotypes: Northwest, North-center and Northeast. Divergence dating indicated a Middle-to-Late Pleistocene divergence between the 2 clades. Demographic analysis indicated that all 3 and pooled populations showed consistent long-period expansions during last glacial period; but not during the Holocene, probably due to the impact of climate warming and human disturbances. Conflicting patterns between mtDNA and microsatellite markers imply an anthropogenic impact on North-center populations due to intensified agricultural cultivation in this region. Our study demonstrated that the impact of past glaciation on organisms in East Asia significantly differs from that of Europe and North America, and human activity is an important factor in determining the genetic diversity of a species, as well as its spatial structure. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  1. CHANGE: Anthropogenic change through the eyes of a child

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlow, Isaac

    2017-04-01

    Constant change is a natural part of Earth's life, and its interconnected systems can easily adapt to slow change. But life is at risk when the natural balance gets disrupted by rapid change. This presentation focuses on the interdisciplinary development and production of CHANGE, a short animated film that shows how human growth and prosperity have changed Planet Earth. The film presents the essence of anthropogenic climate change as seen through the eyes of a pre-teen child. Watch the official trailer here: https://vimeo.com/187618128

  2. Partnership to Enhance Diversity in Marine Geosciences: Holocene Climate and Anthropogenic Changes from Long Island Sound, NY

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHugh, C. M.; Zheng, Y.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Marchese, P.; Cormier, M.; Warkentine, B.

    2005-12-01

    This project, sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Opportunities to Enhance Diversity in the Geosciences Division, will develop a program based on multidisciplinary investigations of Long Island Sound, as a vehicle to enhance diversity in geosciences. The program includes a curriculum centered on geosciences with a substantial field and laboratory component. Students will participate in a one-week oceanographic expedition to Long Island Sound aboard the R/V Cape Henlopen and in day trips using SUNY Maritime College's R/V Alexanderson. The goal is to illustrate the dominant physical processes in an urban coastal area by using a variety of oceanographic mapping techniques, such as multibeam bathymetric mapping, sediment and water sampling, and current profiling. The working hypothesis is that New York City students will be attracted to geosciences through an integrated field and research experience which familiarizes them with their own environment. Furthermore, they will be introduced to solving geoscience problems in a hands-on manner while receiving one-on-one mentoring in a supportive environment. Strong support exists from the City University of New York (CUNY) at the graduate level through MAGNET fellowships. At the undergraduate level, the geoscience curriculum fulfills a science requirement for completion of a BA in geosciences. Support also exists from the "Alliance for Minority Participation" (AMP), a program supported by the National Science Foundation and in which Queens College (QC) and CUNY participate, and the "Search for Education, Elevation, and Knowledge" (SEEK), a QC program designed to provide educational opportunities for academically motivated students who need substantial financial assistance to attend college. The main scientific objectives are 1) to evaluate the impact of anthropogenic activities through studies of the waters, plankton, and sediments and to propose measures for their remediation, and 2) to begin to assess long

  3. Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Ecological Restoration of Wetlands in the Arid Regions of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haibo Wang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available As an important part of the global ecosystem, wetlands and their dynamics greatly influence regional eco-environment systems. To understand the distributions, change processes and temporal-spatial characteristics of the wetlands of the inland river basin in an arid region (Heihe River Basin, HRB, this paper employed multi-source remote sensing data to facilitate multi-temporal monitoring of the HRB wetland using a wetland information extraction method. First, we performed monitoring of these wetlands for the years 2000, 2007, 2011 and 2014; then, we analyzed the variation characteristics of the spatial-temporal dynamics of the wetlands in the HRB over the last 15 years via the landscape dynamic change model and the transformation matrix. In addition, we studied the possible driving mechanisms of these changes. The research results showed that the total area of the HRB wetlands had decreased by 2959.13 hectares in the last 15 years (Since 2000, and the annual average loss was −1.09%. The dynamics characterizing the HRB wetlands generally presented a trend of slow increase after an initial decrease, which can be classified into three stages. From 2000 to 2007, the total wetland area rapidly decreased; from 2007 to 2011, the area slowly decreased; and from 2011 to 2014, the area gradually increased. The dynamic changing processes characterizing the wetland resources were ascribed to a combination of natural processes and human activities. The main driving mechanisms of wetland dynamic changes include climatic conditions, upper reach water inflows, population, water resources, cultivated area, and policy. The findings of this study can served as reference and support for the conservation and management of wetland resources in the HRB.

  4. On the Relative Importance of Solar and Anthropogenic Forcing of Climate Change and Ozone Between the Maunder Minimum Time Period and Today

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, D. H.; Lean, J.; Lonergan, P.; Shindell, D.

    2002-05-01

    Climate during the Little Ice Age differed from the present, perhaps due to solar and anthropogenic forcings. Whereas solar total irradiance increased by about 0.1 percent during maxima of recent 11-year solar activity cycles, a longer-term increase from 1650 to the present is estimated, in the range 0.2 to 0.4 percent based on indirect evidence from sunspot and geomagnetic proxies of past solar activity and brightness variations in Sun-like stars. In both contemporary observations and historical reconstructions, the UV spectrum varies more than the visible spectrum and the near infrared spectrum varies less. Whereas solar forcing of climate change between these two periods is estimated to be about +0.7 Wm-2, changes in atmospheric trace gases produced a forcing change of about +2.5 Wm-2 with direct aerosol forcing amounting to -0.6 Wm-2. We investigate climate response to these radiative changes by using reconstructed annual mean irradiance spectra and anthropogenic influences since 1500 to force the GISS middle atmosphere general circulation model with a stratospheric ozone response. Results show that consistent with the difference in radiative forcing, warming since 1650 due to the solar change is close to 0.4C, while anthropogenic warming is about 1.15C. When the two forcings are used together, the Maunder Minimum period was cooler by 1.5C than today. This cooling is broadly consistent with borehole-reconstructions of temperature change but significantly larger than those of some other reconstructions, and comes from a model with a sensitivity of close to 5C for 2xCO2. The tropical temperature response is close to 1C, in agreement with ice core isotope reconstructions but in disagreement with those from corals (both of which have very limited geographic distributions). From this perspective, solar irradiance may have helped magnify the cooling associated with pre-industrial trace gases during the Little Ice Age, but its chief role was to limit the extent of

  5. Decadal Detectability of Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Changes over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H.; Delworth, T. L.

    2017-12-01

    Future hydroclimate changes consist of shifts in mean state resulting from anthropogenic forcing and contributions from natural climate variability. Considering the inherently limited predictability of natural climate variability, our confidence in projections of future hydroclimate changes relies on a robust assessment of anthropogenic shifts in mean state. Assessment of anthropogenic shifts in near-term projections is challenging because the "signal" of anthropogenic changes is modest compared to the "noise" of natural variability; however, this "signal to noise" ratio can be greatly improved in a large model ensemble that contains the same "signal" but different "noise". Here using multiple large ensembles from two state-of-the-art climate models, we assess the decadal shifts in precipitation-minus-evaporation (PmE) mean state caused by anthropogenic forcing, focusing on North America during 2000 2050. Anthropogenic forcing is projected to cause significant (against internal climate variability) shifts in PmE mean state relative to the 1950 1999 climatology over 50 70% of North America by 2050. The earliest detectable signals include, during November-April, a moistening over northeastern North America and a drying over southwestern North America and, during May-October, a drying over central North America. The central drying is largely attributable to anthropogenic warming. Changes in submonthly transient eddies account for the northeastern moistening and central drying while monthly atmospheric circulation changes explain the southwestern drying. Despite these significant anthropogenic shifts in PmE mean state, large irreducible uncertainties, caused primarily by atmosphere/land internal dynamics, remain in individual projections and are of substantial relevance for policy planning.

  6. Climatic Change,

    Science.gov (United States)

    diagnoses of the mechanisms of both past and possible future climatic changes , an activity which has underscored the need for more complete...documentation of both recent instrumentally observed climatic changes and of those inferred from historical and paleoclimatic sources.

  7. Coral Ecosystem Resilience, Conservation and Management on the Reefs of Jamaica in the Face of Anthropogenic Activities and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. James C. Crabbe

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of factors that are important in reef resilience and integrity help us understand how reef ecosystems react following major anthropogenic and environmental disturbances. The North Jamaican fringing reefs have shown some recent resilience to acute disturbances from hurricanes and bleaching, in addition to the recurring chronic stressors of over-fishing and land development. Factors that can improve coral reef resilience are reviewed, and reef rugosity is shown to correlate with coral cover and growth, particularly for branching Acropora species. The biodiversity index for the Jamaican reefs was lowered after the 2005 mass bleaching event, as were the numbers of coral colonies, but both had recovered by 2009. The importance of coastal zone reef management strategies and the economic value of reefs are discussed, and a protocol is suggested for future management of Jamaican reefs.

  8. European wildcat populations are subdivided into five main biogeographic groups: consequences of Pleistocene climate changes or recent anthropogenic fragmentation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattucci, Federica; Oliveira, Rita; Lyons, Leslie A; Alves, Paulo C; Randi, Ettore

    2016-01-01

    Extant populations of the European wildcat are fragmented across the continent, the likely consequence of recent extirpations due to habitat loss and over-hunting. However, their underlying phylogeographic history has never been reconstructed. For testing the hypothesis that the European wildcat survived the Ice Age fragmented in Mediterranean refuges, we assayed the genetic variation at 31 microsatellites in 668 presumptive European wildcats sampled in 15 European countries. Moreover, to evaluate the extent of subspecies/population divergence and identify eventual wild × domestic cat hybrids, we genotyped 26 African wildcats from Sardinia and North Africa and 294 random-bred domestic cats. Results of multivariate analyses and Bayesian clustering confirmed that the European wild and the domestic cats (plus the African wildcats) belong to two well-differentiated clusters (average Ф ST = 0.159, r st = 0.392, P > 0.001; Analysis of molecular variance [AMOVA]). We identified from c. 5% to 10% cryptic hybrids in southern and central European populations. In contrast, wild-living cats in Hungary and Scotland showed deep signatures of genetic admixture and introgression with domestic cats. The European wildcats are subdivided into five main genetic clusters (average Ф ST = 0.103, r st = 0.143, P > 0.001; AMOVA) corresponding to five biogeographic groups, respectively, distributed in the Iberian Peninsula, central Europe, central Germany, Italian Peninsula and the island of Sicily, and in north-eastern Italy and northern Balkan regions (Dinaric Alps). Approximate Bayesian Computation simulations supported late Pleistocene-early Holocene population splittings (from c. 60 k to 10 k years ago), contemporary to the last Ice Age climatic changes. These results provide evidences for wildcat Mediterranean refuges in southwestern Europe, but the evolution history of eastern wildcat populations remains to be clarified. Historical genetic subdivisions suggest

  9. Comment on "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming" by Beenstock et al. (2012) - some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretis, F.; Hendry, D. F.

    2013-10-01

    We outline six important hazards that can be encountered in econometric modelling of time-series data, and apply that analysis to demonstrate errors in the empirical modelling of climate data in Beenstock et al. (2012). We show that the claim made in Beenstock et al. (2012) as to the different degrees of integrability of CO2 and temperature is incorrect. In particular, the level of integration is not constant and not intrinsic to the process. Further, we illustrate that the measure of anthropogenic forcing in Beenstock et al. (2012), a constructed "anthropogenic anomaly", is not appropriate regardless of the time-series properties of the data.

  10. Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew D.

    2017-11-01

    Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record breaking in a given time series is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

  11. Consequences of climate change, eutrophication, and other anthropogenic impacts to coastal salt marshes: multiple stressors reduce resiliency and sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, E. B.; Wigand, C.; Nelson, J.; Davey, E.; Van Dyke, E.; Wasson, K.

    2011-12-01

    Coastal salt marshes provide a wide variety of ecosystem services, including habitat for protected vertebrates and ecologically valuable invertebrate fauna, flood protection, and improvements in water quality for adjacent marine and estuarine environments. Here, we consider the impacts of future sea level rise combined with other anthropogenic stressors to salt marsh sustainability through the implementation of field and laboratory mesocosms, manipulative experiments, correlative studies, and predictive modeling conducted in central California and southern New England salt marshes. We report on measurements of soil respiration, decomposition, sediment accumulation, and marsh elevation, which considered jointly suggest an association between nitrate input and marsh elevation loss resulting from mineralization of soil organic matter. Furthermore, use of imaging techniques (CT scans) has shown differences in belowground root and rhizome structure associated with fertilization, resulting in a loss of sediment cohesion promoted by fine root structure. Additionally, field and greenhouse mesocosm experiments have provided insight into the specific biogeochemical processes responsible for plant mortality at high immersion or salinity levels. In conclusion, we have found that poor water quality (i.e. eutrophication) leads to enhanced respiration and decomposition of soil organic matter, which ultimately contributes to a loss of salt marsh sustainability. However, marsh deterioration studied at field sites (Jamaica Bay, NY and Elkhorn Slough, CA) is associated not only with enhanced nutrient loads, but also increased immersion due to tidal range increases resulting from dredging. To ensure the continuation of the ecosystem services provided by tidal wetlands and to develop sustainable management strategies that provide favorable outcomes under a variety of future sea level rise and land use scenarios, we need to develop a better understanding of the relative impacts of the

  12. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  13. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on present and future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deandreis, C.

    2008-03-01

    Aerosols influence the Earth radiative budget both through their direct effect (scattering and absorption of solar radiation) and their indirect effect (impacts on cloud microphysics). The role of anthropogenic aerosol in climate change has been recognized to be significant when compared to the one of greenhouse gases. Despite many studies on this topic, the assessments of both anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and their impacts on meteorological variables are still very uncertain. Major reasons for these uncertainties stem from the insufficient knowledge of the emissions sources and of the processes of formation, transformation and deposition. Models used to study climate are often inadequate to study aerosol processes because of coarse spatial and temporal scales. Uncertainties due to the parameterization of the aerosol are added to the uncertainties in the representation of large scale dynamics and physical processes such as transport, hydrological cycle and radiative budget. To predict, the role of the anthropogenic aerosol impact in the future climate change, I have addressed some of these key uncertainties. In this study, I simulate interactively aerosols processes in a climate model in order to improve the estimation of their direct and indirect effects. I estimate a modification of the top of the atmosphere net flux of 60% for the present period. I also show that, for future projection, the representation of the emissions source is an other important source of error. I assess that aerosols radiative forcing differ by 40% between simulations performed with 2 different emissions inventories. These inventories are representative for a high and a low limit in term of carbonaceous aerosols emissions for the 2050 horizon. (author)

  14. Contrasting pattern of hydrological changes during the past two millennia from central and northern India: Regional climate difference or anthropogenic impact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Praveen K.; Prasad, Sushma; Marwan, Norbert; Anoop, A.; Krishnan, R.; Gaye, Birgit; Basavaiah, N.; Stebich, Martina; Menzel, Philip; Riedel, Nils

    2018-02-01

    High resolution reconstructions of the India Summer Monsoon (ISM) are essential to identify regionally different patterns of climate change and refine predictive models. We find opposing trends of hydrological proxies between northern (Sahiya cave stalagmite) and central India (Lonar Lake) between 100 and 1300 CE with the strongest anti-correlation between 810 and 1300 CE. The apparently contradictory data raise the question if these are related to widely different regional precipitation patterns or reflect human influence in/around the Lonar Lake. By comparing multiproxy data with historical records, we demonstrate that only the organic proxies in the Lonar Lake show evidence of anthropogenic impact. However, evaporite data (mineralogy and δ18O) are indicative of precipitation/evaporation (P/E) into the Lonar Lake. Back-trajectories of air-mass circulation over northern and central India show that the relative contribution of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) branch of the ISM is crucial for determining the δ18O of carbonate proxies only in north India, whereas central India is affected significantly by the Arabian Sea (AS) branch of the ISM. We conclude that the δ18O of evaporative carbonates in the Lonar Lake reflects P/E and, in the interval under consideration, is not influenced by source water changes. The opposing trend between central and northern India can be explained by (i) persistent multidecadal droughts over central India between 810 and 1300 CE that provided an effective mechanism for strengthening sub-tropical westerly winds resulting in enhancement of wintertime (non-monsoonal) rainfall over northern parts of the Indian subcontinent, and/or (ii) increased moisture influx to northern India from the depleted BoB source waters.

  15. CLANIMAE: Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on African Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verschuren, D.; André, L.; Mahy, G.; Cocquyt, C.; Plisnier, P.-D.; Gelorini, V.; Rumes, B.; Lebrun, J.; Bock, L.; Marchant, R.

    2009-04-01

    Global studies of historical land use focusing on the large-scale landscape change that can potentially affect global climate (via effects on surface albedo, aerosols, and the carbon cycle) have concluded that the impact of pre-colonial East African cultures on regional ecosystems was limited, due to very low mean population density. This contrasts with the paradigm in East African archaeology and paleoecology that the onset of anthropogenic deforestation started at least 2500 years ago, following the introduction of iron metallurgy by Bantu immigrants. This conflict highlights the present lack of real data on historical climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, which are eminently relevant to sustainable natural resource management and biodiversity conservation in a future of continued population growth and global climate change. CLANIMAE responds to the urgent need of a correct long-term perspective to today's climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, by reconstructing simultaneously the histories of past climate change and of vegetation and water-quality changes over the last 2500 years, through multi-disciplinary analysis of dated lake-sediment records. The climate reconstructions integrate information on biological, geochemical and sedimentological indicators of past changes in the water balance of the study lakes, which cover the climatological gradient from (sub-)humid western Uganda to semi-arid eastern Kenya. Reconstruction of past terrestrial vegetation dynamics is based on analyses of fossil plant pollen and phytoliths, plus the fossil spores of fungi associated with the excrements of large domestic animals as indicators of lake use by pastoralists. The evolution of water quality through time is reconstructed using silicon isotopes in diatom algae as proxy indicator for past phytoplankton productivity, and paleoecological analyses of fossil diatoms and aquatic macrophytes, following calibration of diatom and macrophyte species

  16. Engineering paradigms and anthropogenic global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohle, Martin

    2016-04-01

    This essay discusses 'paradigms' as means to conceive anthropogenic global change. Humankind alters earth-systems because of the number of people, the patterns of consumption of resources, and the alterations of environments. This process of anthropogenic global change is a composite consisting of societal (in the 'noosphere') and natural (in the 'bio-geosphere') features. Engineering intercedes these features; e.g. observing stratospheric ozone depletion has led to understanding it as a collateral artefact of a particular set of engineering choices. Beyond any specific use-case, engineering works have a common function; e.g. civil-engineering intersects economic activity and geosphere. People conceive their actions in the noosphere including giving purpose to their engineering. The 'noosphere' is the ensemble of social, cultural or political concepts ('shared subjective mental insights') of people. Among people's concepts are the paradigms how to shape environments, production systems and consumption patterns given their societal preferences. In that context, engineering is a means to implement a given development path. Four paradigms currently are distinguishable how to make anthropogenic global change happening. Among the 'engineering paradigms' for anthropogenic global change, 'adaptation' is a paradigm for a business-as-usual scenario and steady development paths of societies. Applying this paradigm implies to forecast the change to come, to appropriately design engineering works, and to maintain as far as possible the current production and consumption patterns. An alternative would be to adjust incrementally development paths of societies, namely to 'dovetail' anthropogenic and natural fluxes of matter and energy. To apply that paradigm research has to identify 'natural boundaries', how to modify production and consumption patterns, and how to tackle process in the noosphere to render alterations of common development paths acceptable. A further alternative

  17. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  18. Changes in Allometric Attributes and Biomass of Forests and Woodlands across an Altitudinal and Rainfall Gradient: What Are the Implications of Increasing Seasonality due to Anthropogenic Climate Change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Hunter

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Canonical correspondence analysis and linear regressions were used to relate height, diameter, and dispersion measurements of 36,380 stems from 197 species recorded in 2,341 plots against both climatic and landscape variables. Above ground biomass increased in wetter and cooler locations that ameliorate the seasonal rainfall deficits. Taller and greater diameter trees with lower wood densities occur at higher altitudes. Differences between locations are based on a change in the composition of species rather than a change in the allometric properties within a species. The results support the hydraulic limitation and species packing hypotheses. These interrelationships may be affected by the interactions of fire frequency and drought which are a common feature of much of the study area. Under current climate change scenarios it is likely that there will be a reduction in above ground biomass, the number of stems per hectare, average height, average diameter, and basal area due to increasing seasonality of rainfall, temperatures, and the intensity and frequency of fires. The largest of trees are likely to be removed early due to their inability to cope with increased drought stress. The results suggest a marked reduction in carbon storage will occur across the study region in eastern Australia.

  19. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perthuis, Ch. de; Delbosc, A.

    2009-01-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  20. Coupled Pollen, Spore, and Macrofossil Hudson River Marsh Paleoecological Analysis with X-Ray Fluorescence Elemental Analysis to Study Estuarine Ecosystem Response to Anthropogenic and Climatic Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sritrairat, S.; Peteet, D. M.; Kenna, T. C.; Chillrud, S. N.; Kurdyla, D.; Guilderson, T.

    2007-12-01

    Stockport Flats (41.3N, 73.8W) and Tivoli North Bay (42.0N, 73.9W) are the two northernmost Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve freshwater tidal marshes in New York. Our paleoecological records based on pollen, spores, macrofossils, and loss-on-ignition (LOI) of marsh sediment cores at these two sites suggest significant local and regional anthropogenic changes and climatic variability, including the Medieval Warming Period. We implement the use of a field portable X-Ray Fluorescence Spectroscopy (Innov-X, USA) as an independent proxy to provide more information about chronology, watershed land-use changes, and estuarine processes. Over the last 200 years, there is a pronounced decrease in organic matter, a shift in vegetation, and an increase in invasive species such as Phragmites australis, Lythrum salicaria, and Typha angustifolia. Coupling of more traditional chronological measurements, such as Ambrosia pollen rise and radiometric dating (C-14, Cs-137, and Pb-210), with heavy metals profiles (Pb, Cr, Cu, and Zn) using the XRF unit provides additional time horizon markers, as these metals have distinct peaks in the 1960s and toward the present. Dates from the XRF profiles near the top of the core help to confirm the timing and rate of vegetation changes, especially the spreading of the invasive species. Discrete metal peaks using the XRF help to quickly determine the degree of disturbances and resolution of the cores as analysis of Cs-137 profile is much slower. Sediment proxies, including Ca, K, Ti/S, and Fe/S increase while Sr and Zr decrease toward the top of the core, probably representing higher erosion from land-use changes concurrent with lithologic shifts, LOI decline, and invasive species expansion. Sulfur concentration increases many orders of magnitude especially in the Stockport core and may be a good proxy of salinity, an indicator of drought and seawater rise. This information is valuable to compare with the vegetation changes to

  1. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

  2. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K.

    2006-01-01

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

  3. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  4. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.

  5. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  6. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  7. Climate Implications of the Heterogeneity of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persad, Geeta Gayatri

    Short-lived anthropogenic aerosols are concentrated in regions of high human activity, where they interact with radiation and clouds, causing horizontally heterogeneous radiative forcing between polluted and unpolluted regions. Aerosols can absorb shortwave energy in the atmosphere, but deplete it at the surface, producing opposite radiative perturbations between the surface and atmosphere. This thesis investigates climate and policy implications of this horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, employing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM2.1 and AM3 models, both at a global scale and using East Asia as a regional case study. The degree of difference between spatial patterns of climate change due to heterogeneous aerosol forcing versus homogeneous greenhouse gas forcing deeply impacts the detection, attribution, and prediction of regional climate change. This dissertation addresses a gap in current understanding of these two forcings' response pattern development, using AM2.1 historical forcing simulations. The results indicate that fast atmospheric and land-surface processes alone substantially homogenize the global pattern of surface energy flux response to heterogeneous aerosol forcing. Aerosols' vertical redistribution of energy significantly impacts regional climate, but is incompletely understood. It is newly identified here, via observations and historical and idealized forcing simulations, that increased aerosol-driven atmospheric absorption may explain half of East Asia's recent surface insolation decline. Further, aerosols' surface and atmospheric effects counteract each other regionally---atmospheric heating enhances summer monsoon circulation, while surface dimming suppresses it---but absorbing aerosols' combined effects reduce summer monsoon rainfall. This thesis constitutes the first vertical decomposition of aerosols' impacts in this high-emissions region and elucidates the monsoonal response to aerosols

  8. Le changement climatique d'origine humaine. Rappel de quelques résultats générauxAnthropogenic climate change: general results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petit, Michel

    1999-02-01

    The IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) reports have highlighted major results, which constitute a relevant framework for the specific papers in this issue. Both facts established with large confidence level and models results are presented.

  9. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  10. Carbon Management In the Post-Cap-and-Trade Carbon Economy: An Economic Model for Limiting Climate Change by Managing Anthropogenic Carbon Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGroff, F. A.

    2013-05-01

    In this paper, we discuss an economic model for comprehensive carbon management that focuses on changes in carbon flux in the biosphere due to anthropogenic activity. The two unique features of the model include: 1. A shift in emphasis from primarily carbon emissions, toward changes in carbon flux, mainly carbon extraction, and 2. A carbon price vector (CPV) to express the value of changes in carbon flux, measured in changes in carbon sequestration, or carbon residence time. The key focus with the economic model is the degree to which carbon flux changes due to anthropogenic activity. The economic model has three steps: 1. The CPV metric is used to value all forms of carbon associated with any anthropogenic activity. In this paper, the CPV used is a logarithmic chronological scale to gauge expected carbon residence (or sequestration) time. In future economic models, the CPV may be expanded to include other factors to value carbon. 2. Whenever carbon changes form (and CPV) due to anthropogenic activity, a carbon toll is assessed as determined by the change in the CPV. The standard monetary unit for carbon tolls are carbon toll units, or CTUs. The CTUs multiplied by the quantity of carbon converted (QCC) provides the total carbon toll, or CT. For example, CT = (CTU /mole carbon) x (QCC moles carbon). 3. Whenever embodied carbon (EC) attributable to a good or service moves via trade to a jurisdiction with a different CPV metric, a carbon toll (CT) is assessed representing the CPV difference between the two jurisdictions. This economic model has three clear advantages. First, the carbon pricing and cost scheme use existing and generally accepted accounting methodologies to ensure the veracity and verifiability of carbon management efforts with minimal effort and expense using standard, existing auditing protocols. Implementing this economic model will not require any new, special, unique, or additional training, tools, or systems for any entity to achieve their minimum

  11. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  12. Climate impact of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, J.; Zhou, C.

    2017-12-01

    Cirrus clouds have a net warming effect on the atmosphere and cover about 30% of the Earth's area. Aerosol particles initiate ice formation in the upper troposphere through modes of action that include homogeneous freezing of solution droplets, heterogeneous nucleation on solid particles immersed in a solution, and deposition nucleation of vapor onto solid particles. However, the efficacy with which particles act to form cirrus particles in a model depends on the representation of updrafts. Here, we use a representation of updrafts based on observations of gravity waves, and follow ice formation/evaporation during both updrafts and downdrafts. We examine the possible change in ice number concentration from anthropogenic soot originating from surface sources of fossil fuel and biomass burning and from aircraft particles that have previously formed ice in contrails. Results show that fossil fuel and biomass burning soot aerosols with this version exert a radiative forcing of -0.15±0.02 Wm-2 while aircraft aerosols that have been pre-activated within contrails exert a forcing of -0.20±0.06 Wm-2, but it is possible to decrease these estimates of forcing if a larger fraction of dust particles act as heterogeneous ice nuclei. In addition aircraft aerosols may warm the climate if a large fraction of these particles act as ice nuclei. The magnitude of the forcing in cirrus clouds can be comparable to the forcing exerted by anthropogenic aerosols on warm clouds. This assessment could therefore support climate models with high sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing, while still allowing the models to fit the overall historical temperature change.

  13. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  14. Quantifying the anthropogenic and climatic contributions to changes in water discharge and sediment load into the sea: A case study of the Yangtze River, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yifei; Zou, Xinqing; Gao, Jianhua; Xu, Xinwanghao; Wang, Chenglong; Tang, Dehao; Wang, Teng; Wu, Xiaowei

    2015-12-01

    Based on data from the Datong hydrological station and 147 meteorological stations, the influences of climate change and human activities on temporal changes in water discharge and sediment load were examined in the Yangtze River basin from 1953 to 2010. The Mann-Kendall test, abrupt change test (Mann-Kendall and cumulative anomaly test), and Morlet wavelet method were employed to analyze the water discharge and sediment load data measured at the Datong hydrological station. The results indicated that the annual mean precipitation and water discharge exhibited decreasing trends of -0.0064 mm/10 yr and -1.41×10(8) m3/yr, respectively, and that the water sediment load showed a significant decreasing trend of -46.5×10(6) t/yr. Meanwhile, an abrupt change in the water discharge occurred in 2003. The sediment load also exhibited an abrupt change in 1985. From 1970 to 2010, the climate change and human activities contributed 72% and 28%, respectively, to the water discharge reduction. The human-induced decrease in the sediment load was 914.03×10(6) t/yr during the 1970s and 3301.79×10(6) t/yr during the 2000s. The contribution from human activities also increased from 71% to 92%, especially in the 1990s, when the value increased to 92%. Climate change and human activities contributed 14% and 86%, respectively, to the sediment load reduction. Inter-annual variations in water discharge and sediment load were affected by climate oscillations and human activities. The effect of human activities on the sediment load was considerably greater than those on water discharge in the Yangtze River basin. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Geels

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

  16. Anthropogenic combustion iron as a complex climate forcer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Hitoshi; Mahowald, Natalie M; Moteki, Nobuhiro; Hamilton, Douglas S; Ohata, Sho; Yoshida, Atsushi; Koike, Makoto; Scanza, Rachel A; Flanner, Mark G

    2018-04-23

    Atmospheric iron affects the global carbon cycle by modulating ocean biogeochemistry through the deposition of soluble iron to the ocean. Iron emitted by anthropogenic (fossil fuel) combustion is a source of soluble iron that is currently considered less important than other soluble iron sources, such as mineral dust and biomass burning. Here we show that the atmospheric burden of anthropogenic combustion iron is 8 times greater than previous estimates by incorporating recent measurements of anthropogenic magnetite into a global aerosol model. This new estimation increases the total deposition flux of soluble iron to southern oceans (30-90 °S) by 52%, with a larger contribution of anthropogenic combustion iron than dust and biomass burning sources. The direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic magnetite is estimated to be 0.021 W m -2 globally and 0.22 W m -2 over East Asia. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic combustion iron is a larger and more complex climate forcer than previously thought, and therefore plays a key role in the Earth system.

  17. Climate change: Wilderness's greatest challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan L. Stephenson; Connie Millar

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic climatic change can no longer be considered an abstract possibility. It is here, its effects are already evident, and changes are expected to accelerate in coming decades, profoundly altering wilderness ecosystems. At the most fundamental level, wilderness stewards will increasingly be confronted with a trade-off between untrammeled wilderness character...

  18. Climate change: Wilderness's greatest challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan L. Stephenson; Constance I. Millar

    2012-01-01

    Anthropogenic climatic change can no longer be considered an abstract possibility. It is here, its effects are already evident, and changes are expected to accelerate in coming decades, profoundly altering wilderness ecosystems. At the most fundamental level, wilderness stewards will increasingly be confronted with a trade-off between untrammeled wilderness character...

  19. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... doesn’t become place, and thus not experienced as a common good. Many Danish towns are situated by the sea; this has historically supported a strong spatial, functional and economically identity of the cities, with which people have identified. Effects of globalization processes and a rising sea level...... are now ques-tioning this. Measurements as dykes will changes or cut off the spatial and func-tional coherence between the city structure and the sea. Questions regarding the status and the appropriation of these ‘new’ adaptive func-tions in landscapes and open urban spaces by ordinary people must...

  20. An overview of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Paillard, D.

    2004-01-01

    We describe briefly here the main mechanisms and time scales involved in natural and anthropogenic climate variability, based on quantitative paleo-climatic reconstructions from natural archives and climate model simulations: the large glacial-interglacial cycles of the last million years (the Quaternary), lasting typically a hundred thousand years, triggered by changes in the solar radiation received by the Earth due to its position around the Sun; the century-long climatic changes occurring during last glacial period and triggered by recurrent iceberg discharges of the large northern hemisphere ice caps, massive freshwater flux to the north Atlantic, and changes in the ocean heat transport. We show the strong coupling between past climatic changes and global biogeochemical cycles, namely here atmospheric greenhouse gases. We also discuss the decadal climatic fluctuations during the last thousand years, showing an unprecedented warming attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We show the range of atmospheric greenhouse concentrations forecasted for the end of the 21. century and the climate model predictions for global temperature changes during the 21. century. We also discuss the possible climatic changes at longer time scales involving the possibility of north Atlantic heat transport collapse (possibility of abrupt climate change), and the duration of the current interglacial period. (author)

  1. Late-Holocene vegetation dynamics in response to a changing climate and anthropogenic influences - Insights from stratigraphic records and subfossil trees from southeast Lithuania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edvardsson, Johannes; Stančikaitė, Miglė; Miras, Yannick; Corona, Christophe; Gryguc, Gražyna; Gedminienė, Laura; Mažeika, Jonas; Stoffel, Markus

    2018-04-01

    To increase our understanding of long-term climate dynamics and its effects on different ecosystems, palaeoclimatic and long-term botanical reconstructions need to be improved, in particular in underutilized geographical regions. In this study, vegetation, (hydro)climate, and land-use changes were documented at two southeast Lithuanian peatland complexes - Čepkeliai and Rieznyčia - for the Late-Holocene period. The documentation was based on a combination of pollen, plant macrofossils, peat stratigraphic records, and subfossil trees. Our results cover the last two millennia and reveal the existence of moist conditions in Southern Lithuania between 300 and 500 CE and from 950 to 1850 CE. Conversely, changes towards warmer and/or dryer conditions have been recorded in 100, 600, and 750 CE, and since the 1850s. Significant differences with other Baltic proxies prevent deriving a complete and precise long-term reconstruction of past hydroclimatic variability at the regional scale. Yet, our results provide an important cornerstone for an improved understanding of regional climate change, i.e. in a region for which only (i) few detailed palaeobotanical studies exist and which has, in addition, been considered as (ii) an ecologically sensitive region at the interface between the temperate and boreal bioclimatic zones.

  2. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  3. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  4. From Bray-Curtis ordination to Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation: assessing anthropogenically-induced and/or climatically-induced changes in arboreal ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madurapperuma, Buddhika Dilhan

    Mapping forest resources is useful for identifying threat patterns and monitoring changes associated with landscapes. Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Science techniques are effective tools used to identify and forecast forest resource threats such as exotic plant invasion, vulnerability to climate change, and land-use/cover change. This research focused on mapping abundance and distribution of Russian-olive using soil and land-use/cover data, evaluating historic land-use/cover change using mappable water-related indices addressing the primary loss of riparian arboreal ecosystems, and detecting year-to-year land-cover changes on forest conversion processes. Digital image processing techniques were used to detect the changes of arboreal ecosystems using ArcGIS ArcInfoRTM 9.3, ENVIRTM, and ENVIRTM EX platforms. Research results showed that Russian-olive at the inundated habitats of the Missouri River is abundant compared to terrestrial habitats in the Bismarck-Mandan Wildland Urban Interface. This could be a consequence of habitat quality of the floodplain, such as its silt loam and silty clay soil type, which favors Russian-olive regeneration. Russian-olive has close assemblage with cottonwood (Populus deltoides) and buffaloberry (Shepherdia argentea) trees at the lower elevations. In addition, the Russian-olive-cottonwood association correlated with low nitrogen, low pH, and high Fe, while Russian-olive- buffaloberry association occurred in highly eroded areas. The Devils Lake sub-watershed was selected to demonstrate how both land-use/cover modification and climatic variability have caused the vulnerability of arboreal ecosystems on the fringe to such changes. Land-cover change showed that the forest acreage declined from 9% to 1%, water extent increased from 13% to 25%, and cropland extent increased from 34% to 39% between 1992 and 2006. In addition, stochastic modeling was adapted to simulate how land-use/cover change influenced forest conversion to non

  5. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vink, Martinus J.; Boezeman, Daan; Dewulf, Art; Termeer, Catrien J.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  6. Comparison of the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic disturbances on the El Arish coast and seaweed vegetation after ten years in 2010, North Sinai, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gihan Ahmed El Shoubaky

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Human activities on coasts and climate changes during the past ten years have given rise to considerable shoreline changes along the El Arish coast (the northern coast of the Sinai Peninsula. In the El Arish Power Plant, sediment accretion has reached the tip of the breakwaterof the cooling water intake basin, necessitating extensive dredging inside the basin. To the east of El Arish Harbour, the shoreline has been incontinuous retreat. The differences between the year 2000 and 2010 in the shoreline along the El Arish coast weredetermined by analysing satellite images from NOAA-AVHRR images. The analyses revealed erosion and accretionpatterns along the coast. The physical parameters showed that the minimum water temperature of 18°C wasrecorded at site I in winter and that the maximum was 40°C at site II in summer. The latter temperature can be attributed to the effluent dischargeof cooling water from the El Arish power plant. Spatial and temporal patterns in the distribution and abundance of macroalgae were measured at four sites(I, II, III and IV along the El Arish coast. The percentage cover of the successional macroalgae exhibited environmental fluctuations. After ten years,the phytocommunity showed that red and green algae were dominant at the study sites. Significant differences between past and current flora were observed.39 taxa recorded in 2000 were absent in 2010, while 9 taxa not previously reported were present in 2010. These changes are discussed in the context ofpossible global warming effects.PERMANOVA showed significant changes (p < 0.001 between sites, seasons, species abundance and macroalgal groups along the El Arish coast in 2000 and2010. The similarity matrix showed a significant difference between the flora in 2010 and that recorded in 2000, indicating poor similarity and changes inspecies composition among the seasons at the different sites. Most of the algae belonged to the filamentous, coarsely branched and sheet

  7. Solar Variability and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pap, J. M.

    2004-12-01

    One of the most exciting and important challenges in science today is to understand climate variability and to make reliable predictions. The Earth's climate is a complex system driven by external and internal forces. Climate can vary over a large range of time scales as a consequence of natural variability or anthropogenic influence, or both. Observations of steadily increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases --primarily man-made-- in the Earth's atmosphere have led to an expectation of global warming during the coming decades. However, the greenhouse effect competes with other climate forcing mechanisms, such as solar variability, cosmic ray flux changes, desertification, deforestation, and changes in natural and man-made atmospheric aerosols. Indeed, the climate is always changing, and has forever been so, including periods before the industrial era began. Since the dominant driving force of the climate system is the Sun, the accurate knowledge of the solar radiation received by Earth at various wavelengths and from energetic particles with varying intensities, as well as a better knowledge of the solar-terrestrial interactions and their temporal and spatial variability are crucial to quantify the solar influence on climate and to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic influences. In this paper we give an overview on the recent results of solar irradiance measurements over the last three decades and the possible effects of solar variability on climate.

  8. Intensification of Chile-Peru upwelling under climate change: diagnosing the impact of natural and anthropogenic forcing from the IPSL-CM5 model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebri, B.; Khodri, M.; Gastineau, G.; Echevin, V.; Thiria, S.

    2017-12-01

    Upwelling is critical to the biological production, acidification, and deoxygenation of the ocean's major eastern boundary current ecosystems. A conceptual hypothesis suggests that the winds that favour coastal upwelling intensify with anthropogenic global warming due to increased land-sea temperature contrast. We examine this hypothesis for the dynamics of the Peru-Chile upwelling using a set of four large ensembles of coupled, ocean-atmosphere model simulations with the IPSL model covering the 1940-2014 period. In one large ensemble we prescribe the standard CMIP5 greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, anthropogenic aerosol, ozone and volcanic forcings, following the historical experiments through 2005 and RCP8.5 from 2006-2014, while the other ensembles consider separately the GHG, ozone and volcanic forcings. We find evidence for intensification of upwelling-favourable winds with however little evidence of atmospheric pressure gradients in response to increasing land-sea temperature differences. Our analyses reveal poleward migration and intensification of the South Pacific Anticyclone near poleward boundaries of climatological Peruvian and Chilean upwelling zones. This contribution further investigates the physical mechanisms for the Peru-Chile upwelling intensification and the relative role of natural and anthropogenic forcings.

  9. Agriculture: Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change affects agricultural producers because agriculture and fisheries depend on specific climate conditions. Temperature changes can cause crop planting dates to shift. Droughts and floods due to climate change may hinder farming practices.

  10. Nonlinear effects of anthropogenic aerosol and urban land surface forcing on spring climate in eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Jiechun; Xu, Haiming; Zhang, Leying

    2016-05-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols and urban land cover change induce opposite thermal effects on the atmosphere near surface as well as in the troposphere. One can think of these anthropogenic effects as composed of two parts: the individual effect due to an individual anthropogenic forcing and the nonlinear effects resulting from the coexistence of two forcing factors. In this study, we explored the role of such nonlinear effects in affecting East Asian climate, as well as individual forcing effects, using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 coupled with the Community Land Model version 4. Atmospheric responses were simulated by including anthropogenic aerosol emission only, urban cover only, or the combination of the two, over eastern China. Results showed that nonlinear responses were different from any effects by an individual forcing or the linear combination of individual responses. The nonlinear interaction could generate cold horizontal temperature advection to cool the troposphere, which induced anomalous subsidence along the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). This anomalous vertical motion, together with a weakened low-level southwesterly, favored below-normal (above-normal) rainfall over the YRV (southern China), shifting the spring rain belt southward. The resultant diabatic cooling, in turn, amplified the anomalous descent and further decreased tropospheric temperature over the YRV, forming a positive feedback loop to maintain the nonlinear effects. Consequently, the nonlinear effects acted to reduce the climate anomalies from a simple linear combination of two individual effects and played an important role in regional responses to one anthropogenic forcing when the other is prescribed.

  11. The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate variability on tropical cyclone tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbert, Angela Joy

    To examine the impact of natural and anthropogenic climate variability on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks, a comprehensive analysis is conducted examining changes in TC tracks from changes in the large-scale steering flow and TC genesis for different climate scenarios. A Beta and Advection Model is used to create tracks under the different climate scenarios, which are then analyzed focusing on each contribution from changes in the large-scale steering flow and TC genesis separately and as a combined impact. Two experiments are conducted; the first examines potential changes in TC tracks due to anthropogenic climate change in the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific. The impacts of anthropogenic climate change on TC tracks are robust across models and potential future scenarios for changes in CO2. For the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific, there is a statistically significant decrease in TC tracks that move straight, impacting the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, or the Philippines, and a statistically significant increase in TC tracks that recurve into the open ocean. These changes are predicted to be small for any given area, with a change of ~1-5 TCs per decade and are found to be primiarly due to changes in the large-scale steering flow; however, small changes in TC genesis still contribute, especially in the North Atlantic. The second experiment examines potential TC tracks during the Last Glacial Maximum. The Last Glacial Maximum had a substantially different climate from present day allowing for an analysis on the impact of climate variability with a larger magntitude of change. Through comparing model-simulated tracks in the Pre-industrial Control and the Last Glacial Maximum, a global decrease in TC tracks is found, expect in the Central North and South Pacific. Unlike in the anthropogenic experiment, changes in TC genesis are the primary contributor to proposed differences in the TC tracks. Further analysis of the parameters that are used to

  12. Effects of anthropogenic heat release upon the urban climate in a Japanese megacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narumi, Daisuke; Kondo, Akira; Shimoda, Yoshiyuki

    2009-05-01

    This report presents results of investigations of the influence of anthropogenic heat release in Japanese megacity (Keihanshin district) upon the urban climate, using the energy database [Shimoda et al., 1999. Estimation and evaluation of artificial waste heat in urban area. Selected Papers from the Conference ICB-ICUC'99 WCASP-50 WMO/TD no. 1026] as a part of the land-surface boundary conditions of a mesoscale meteorological simulation model. The calculated results related to atmospheric temperature distribution were similar to observed values not only for daily averages but also for amplitudes and phases of diurnal change. To reproduce accurately, it is essential to reproduce urban characteristics such as an urban canopy and anthropogenic heat release in a fine resolution mesh. We attempted an analysis using current data for anthropogenic heat and under uniform heat release conditions, to investigate temporal and spatial characteristics in relation to the influence of anthropogenic heat release on the urban climate. The results of investigation into the influence of anthropogenic heat release on atmospheric temperature using current data indicate that the amount of heat released is lower at night than during the day, but the temperature rise is nearly 3 times greater. Results of investigation into the influence of anthropogenic heat release on wind systems using current data indicate that the onset of land breezes is delayed, particularly in a coastal area. Investigation into the temporal characteristics related to the influence of anthropogenic heat release under uniform heat release conditions showed a maximum influence on temperature during the predawn period.

  13. Climate change: Factors and forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, W.R.

    1990-01-01

    An overview is presented of global climatic change. The greenhouse effect is an established physical phenomena. The reradiative effects of various anthropogenic gases are scientifically demonstrable, and the increasing concentration of such gases in the atmosphere is irrefutable. The delinquent information is the magnitude of the agravated greenhouse effect (AGE)-induced climatic change, the temporal pace of the change and its spatial distribution. The pace of the climatic change implied by many of the general circulation model (GCM) estimates is for a northern hemispheric warming 10-50 times faster than the change since the last ice age. At a relatively aggregated representation, researching the impact of climate change involves estimating energy use and greenhouse gas atmospheric retention, climate modeling and socio-economic impact models. Recognizing that certain of the impacts of anthropogenic gasses will prove to be cumulative, non-reversible and synergistic, it would be prudent to examine mitigating options for immediate implementation. Given the current degree of scientific uncertainty, response priorities would be on the no-regrets or covering-the-bets options. 14 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  14. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1990-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  15. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1991-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  16. Testing For The Linearity of Responses To Multiple Anthropogenic Climate Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest, C. E.; Stone, P. H.; Sokolov, A. P.

    To test whether climate forcings are additive, we compare climate model simulations in which anthropogenic forcings are applied individually and in combination. Tests are performed with different values for climate system properties (climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean) as well as for different strengths of the net aerosol forcing, thereby testing for the dependence of linearity on these properties. The MIT 2D Land-Ocean Climate Model used in this study consists of a zonally aver- aged statistical-dynamical atmospheric model coupled to a mixed-layer Q-flux ocean model, with heat anomalies diffused into the deep ocean. Following our previous stud- ies, the anthropogenic forcings are the changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases (1860-1995), sulfate aerosol (1860-1995), and stratospheric and tropospheric ozone (1979-1995). The sulfate aerosol forcing is applied as a surface albedo change. For an aerosol forcing of -1.0 W/m2 and an effective ocean diffusitivity of 2.5 cm2/s, the nonlinearity of the response of global-mean surface temperatures to the combined forcing shows a strong dependence on climate sensitivity. The fractional change in decadal averages ([(TG + TS + TO) - TGSO]/TGSO) for the 1986-1995 period compared to pre-industrial times are 0.43, 0.90, and 1.08 with climate sensitiv- ities of 3.0, 4.5, and 6.2 C, respectively. The values of TGSO for these three cases o are 0.52, 0.62, and 0.76 C. The dependence of linearity on climate system properties, o the role of climate system feedbacks, and the implications for the detection of climate system's response to individual forcings will be presented. Details of the model and forcings can be found at http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/.

  17. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  18. CLIMATIC CHANGE AND CLIMATE CONTROL,

    Science.gov (United States)

    The heat balance method together with certain other methods of theoretical climatology for investigating the laws of natural climatic changes and for determining the possibility of controlling such changes is discussed.

  19. Climate change and dead zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B

    2015-04-01

    Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

    2015-01-01

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  1. Climate changes your business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Businesses face much bigger climate change costs than they realise. That is the conclusion of Climate Changes Your Business. The climate change risks that companies should be paying more attention to are physical risks, regulatory risks as well as risk to reputation and the emerging risk of litigation, says the report. It argues that the risks associated with climate change tend to be underestimated

  2. Comment on "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming" by Beenstock et al. (2012) – some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Pretis, F.; Hendry, D. F.

    2013-01-01

    We outline six important hazards that can be encountered in econometric modelling of time-series data, and apply that analysis to demonstrate errors in the empirical modelling of climate data in Beenstock et al. (2012). We show that the claim made in Beenstock et al. (2012) as to the different degrees of integrability of CO2 and temperature is incorrect. In particular, the level of integration is not constant and not intrinsic to the process. Further, we illustrate that the ...

  3. Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Höök, Mikael; Tang, Xu

    2013-01-01

    Future scenarios with significant anthropogenic climate change also display large increases in world production of fossil fuels, the principal CO 2 emission source. Meanwhile, fossil fuel depletion has also been identified as a future challenge. This chapter reviews the connection between these two issues and concludes that limits to availability of fossil fuels will set a limit for mankind's ability to affect the climate. However, this limit is unclear as various studies have reached quite different conclusions regarding future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations caused by fossil fuel limitations. It is concluded that the current set of emission scenarios used by the IPCC and others is perforated by optimistic expectations on future fossil fuel production that are improbable or even unrealistic. The current situation, where climate models largely rely on emission scenarios detached from the reality of supply and its inherent problems are problematic. In fact, it may even mislead planners and politicians into making decisions that mitigate one problem but make the other one worse. It is important to understand that the fossil energy problem and the anthropogenic climate change problem are tightly connected and need to be treated as two interwoven challenges necessitating a holistic solution. - Highlights: ► Review of the development of emission scenarios. ► Survey of future fossil fuel trajectories used by the IPCC emission scenarios. ► Discussions on energy transitions in the light of oil depletion. ► Review of earlier studies of future climate change and fossil fuel limitations.

  4. Climate change and future adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lučka Kajfež Bogataj

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a summary of the current scientific understanding of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC on the natural and anthropogenic drivers of changes in global climate. It presents an overview of observed changes in the climate system and their relationships with physical processes as well as an overview of projections for future climate changes. A summary of observed climate changes in Slovenia in the last decades is given and future projections are discussed. Europe has warmed by almost 1°C in the last century, faster than the global average. Precipitation has significantly increased in northern Europe, whereas drying has been observed in the Mediterranean. Continuing the observed trend, average precipitation as well as extreme precipitation are very likely to further increase in most of northern Europe whereas precipitation is very likely to decrease in the Mediterranean. The reduction of precipitation in summer in Slovenia is expected to have serious effects, e.g. more frequent droughts, with considerable impacts on horticulture and the availability of water. Adaptation can reduce vulnerability to climate variability and change. This paper also discusses the appropriate responses to climate change from the mitigation and adaptation points of view.

  5. Understanding climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

    2007-01-01

    Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

  6. Climate effects of anthropogenic sulfate: Simulations from a coupled chemistry/climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; Taylor, K.E.; Walton, J.J.

    1993-09-01

    In this paper, we use a more comprehensive approach by coupling a climate model with a 3-D global chemistry model to investigate the forcing by anthropogenic aerosol sulfate. The chemistry model treats the global-scale transport, transformation, and removal of SO 2 , DMS and H 2 SO 4 species in the atmosphere. The mass concentration of anthropogenic sulfate from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning is calculated in the chemistry model and provided to the climate model where it affects the shortwave radiation. We also investigate the effect, with cloud nucleation parameterized in terms of local aerosol number, sulfate mass concentration and updraft velocity. Our simulations indicate that anthropogenic sulfate may result in important increases in reflected solar radiation, which would mask locally the radiative forcing from increased greenhouse gases. Uncertainties in these results will be discussed

  7. Climate effects of anthropogenic sulfate: Simulations from a coupled chemistry/climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; Taylor, K.E.; Walton, J.J.

    1993-09-01

    In this paper, we use a more comprehensive approach by coupling a climate model with a 3-D global chemistry model to investigate the forcing by anthropogenic aerosol sulfate. The chemistry model treats the global-scale transport, transformation, and removal of SO{sub 2}, DMS and H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} species in the atmosphere. The mass concentration of anthropogenic sulfate from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning is calculated in the chemistry model and provided to the climate model where it affects the shortwave radiation. We also investigate the effect, with cloud nucleation parameterized in terms of local aerosol number, sulfate mass concentration and updraft velocity. Our simulations indicate that anthropogenic sulfate may result in important increases in reflected solar radiation, which would mask locally the radiative forcing from increased greenhouse gases. Uncertainties in these results will be discussed.

  8. On climate change skepticism and denial in tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hall, C.M.; Amelung, B.; Cohen, S.; Eijgelaar, E.; Gössling, S.; Higham, J.; Leemans, R.; Peeters, P.; Ram, Y.; Scott, D.

    2015-01-01

    The period leading to and immediately after the release of the IPCC’s fifth series of climate change assessments saw substantial efforts by climate change denial interests to portray anthropogenic climate change (ACC) as either unproven theory or a negligible contribution to natural climate

  9. Assessment of Spatio-temporal Barren-lands Expansion and Agricultural Adaptation due to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity: A Geospatial Approach in Hot Semi-arid Region of Maharashtra State, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, A.; Inamdar, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    Major parts of Upper Godavari River Basin are intensely drought prone and climate vulnerable in Maharashtra State, India. The economy of the state depends on the agronomic productivity of this region. So, it is necessary to monitor and regulate the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on agricultural land in that region. This study investigates and maps the barren-lands and alteration of agricultural lands, their decadal deviations with the multi-temporal LANDSAT satellite images; and finally quantifies the agricultural adaptations. This work involves the utilization of remote sensing and GIS tools and modeling. First, climatic trend analysis is carried out with dataset obtained from India Meteorological Department. Then, multi-temporal LANDSAT images are classified (Level I, hybrid classification technique are followed) to determine the decadal Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes and correlated with the agricultural water demand. Finally, various LANDSAT band analysis is conducted to determine irrigated and non-irrigated cropping area estimation and identifying the agricultural adaptations. The analysis of LANDSAT images shows that barren-lands are most increased class during the study period. The overall spatial extent of barren-lands are increased drastically during the study period. The geospatial study (class-to-class conversion study) shows that, most of the conversion of the barren-lands are from the agricultural land and reserve or open forests. The barren-lands are constantly increasing and the agricultural land is linearly decreasing. Hence, there is an inverse correlation between barren-lands and agricultural land. Moreover, there is a shift to non-irrigated and less water demanding crops, from more water demanding crops, which is a noticeable adaptation. The surface-water availability is highly dependent on rainfall and/or climatic conditions. It is changing either way in a random fashion based upon the quantity of rainfall occurred in

  10. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  11. Possible revisions in reservoir operation rules as an adaptation to climate change assessed by a global hydrological model with anthropogenic activities and a state-of-the-art river routing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, T.; Mateo, C. M. R.; Hanasaki, N.; Yamazaki, D.; Watanabe, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Komori, D.; Champathong, A.

    2015-12-01

    demonstrated how the use of an advanced river routing with a hydrological model that includes anthropogenic effects can be useful in elucidating the changes in water management which might be necessary in order to adapt to the changing climate.

  12. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H; Molina, Mario J

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale.

  13. Climate change convention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, D.

    1992-01-01

    Principles that guide Canada's Green Plan with respect to global warming are outlined. These include respect for nature, meeting environmental goals in an economically beneficial manner, efficient use of resources, shared responsibilities, federal leadership, and informed decision making. The policy side of the international Framework Convention on Climate Change is then discussed and related to the Green Plan. The Convention has been signed by 154 nations and has the long-term objective of stabilizing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Some of the Convention's commitments toward achieving that objective are only applicable to the developed countries. Five general areas of commitment are emissions reductions, assistance to developing countries, reporting requirements, scientific and socioeconomic research, and education. The most controversial area is that of limiting emissions. The Convention has strong measures for public accountability and is open to future revisions. Canada's Green Plan represents one country's response to the Convention commitments, including a national goal to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level by the year 2000

  14. Climate change and Finland. Summary of the Finnish research programme on climate change (SILMU)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    Anthropogenic impacts on the Earth`s atmosphere are expected to cause significant global climate changes during the next few decades. These changes will have many consequences both in nature and on human activities. In order to investigate the implications of such changes in Finland, a six-year multidisciplinary national research programme on climate and global change, the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), was initiated in 1990. The key research areas were: (1) quantification of the greenhouse effect and the magnitude of anticipated climate changes, (2) assessment of the effects of changing climate on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and (3) development of mitigation and adaptation strategies

  15. Climate change and Finland. Summary of the Finnish research programme on climate change (SILMU)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    Anthropogenic impacts on the Earth's atmosphere are expected to cause significant global climate changes during the next few decades. These changes will have many consequences both in nature and on human activities. In order to investigate the implications of such changes in Finland, a six-year multidisciplinary national research programme on climate and global change, the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), was initiated in 1990. The key research areas were: (1) quantification of the greenhouse effect and the magnitude of anticipated climate changes, (2) assessment of the effects of changing climate on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and (3) development of mitigation and adaptation strategies

  16. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home / News / Fact sheets / Detail WHO /A. Craggs Climate change and health 1 February 2018 ","datePublished":"2018-02- ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  17. Climate Change Adaptation Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-11

    US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG® Climate Change Adaptation Approaches Presented at the E2S2 Symposium May 11th, 2011 New Orleans, LA...COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Climate Change Adaptation Approaches 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...10/09).  One of the four priorities is to maintain readiness in the face of climate change .  Addressing Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: a

  18. Climate Change Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    This book brings together over seventy fifty authors for a comprehensive examination of the emerging global regime of climate change law. Despite the relative youth of climate change law, we can already begin to see the outlines of legal regimes addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation

  19. Trees and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Dettenmaier, Megan; Kuhns, Michael; Unger, Bethany; McAvoy, Darren

    2017-01-01

    This fact sheet describes the complex relationship between forests and climate change based on current research. It explains ways that trees can mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. It details the impacts that forests are having on the changing climate and discuss specific ways that trees can be used to reduce or counter carbon emissions directly and indirectly.

  20. Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of-the-Art Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2013-01-01

    to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend or impact results. The review (Willems et al., 2012) considers the following aspects: analysis of long-term historical trends...... due to anthropogenic climate change, analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change, and implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management. A summary is provided in this paper....

  1. Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeebe, Richard E

    2013-08-20

    Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

  2. Deconstructing Demand: The Anthropogenic and Climatic Drivers of Urban Water Consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemati, Azadeh; Rippy, Megan A; Grant, Stanley B; Davis, Kristen; Feldman, David

    2016-12-06

    Cities in drought prone regions of the world such as South East Australia are faced with escalating water scarcity and security challenges. Here we use 72 years of urban water consumption data from Melbourne, Australia, a city that recently overcame a 12 year "Millennium Drought", to evaluate (1) the relative importance of climatic and anthropogenic drivers of urban water demand (using wavelet-based approaches) and (2) the relative contribution of various water saving strategies to demand reduction during the Millennium Drought. Our analysis points to conservation as a dominant driver of urban water savings (69%), followed by nonrevenue water reduction (e.g., reduced meter error and leaks in the potable distribution system; 29%), and potable substitution with alternative sources like rain or recycled water (3%). Per-capita consumption exhibited both climatic and anthropogenic signatures, with rainfall and temperature explaining approximately 55% of the variance. Anthropogenic controls were also strong (up to 45% variance explained). These controls were nonstationary and frequency-specific, with conservation measures like outdoor water restrictions impacting seasonal water use and technological innovation/changing social norms impacting lower frequency (baseline) use. The above-noted nonstationarity implies that wavelets, which do not assume stationarity, show promise for use in future predictive models of demand.

  3. Chapter 3: Climate change at multiple scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constance Millar; Ron Neilson; Dominique Bachelet; Ray Drapek; Jim Lenihan

    2006-01-01

    Concepts about the natural world influence approaches to forest management. In the popular press, climate change inevitably refers to global warming, greenhouse gas impacts, novel anthropogenic (human-induced) threats, and international politics. There is, however, a larger context that informs our understanding of changes that are occurring - that is, Earth’...

  4. What social changes will result from responses to climate impacts?

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Josephine Tucker

    2012-12-02

    Dec 2, 2012 ... change hotspots: social vulnerability. Framework, key ... odi.org.uk. An illustration of key concepts. Adapted from IPCC 2012. CLIMATE. DEVELOPMENT. Natural variability. Anthropogenic climate change. Climate change ... What is the role of local institutions and risk management strategies, and how do.

  5. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between...... climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...... between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non...

  6. Does Climate Literacy Matter? A Case Study of U.S. Students' Level of Concern about Anthropogenic Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedford, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Educators seeking to address global warming in their classrooms face numerous challenges, including the question of whether student opinions about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) can change in response to increased knowledge about the climate system. This article analyzes survey responses from 458 students at a primarily undergraduate…

  7. Climate change assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce

    2008-01-01

    The science associated with climate and its effects on ecosystems, economies, and social systems is developing rapidly. Climate change assessments can serve as an important synthesis of this science and provide the information and context for management and policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation. This topic paper describes the variety of climate change...

  8. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  9. Climatic Change. Human Influence?

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Dionísio; Leite, Solange; Ribeiro, A.C.; Figueiredo, Tomás de

    2016-01-01

    We begin by presenting the functioning of the Climate System and the variety of climates that occurs on the surface of the globe. We analyze climate change based on the sun's orbital parameters and other causes, focusing on the current interglacial period and the influence it had on the development of human societies. The following text looks on developing of the climate of the last 1000 years, with considerations about the warm medieval climate, the little ice age, the recovery...

  10. Climate change and the role of surveyors

    OpenAIRE

    Boateng, Isaac

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has been one of the main causes of the rise and fall of civilisations, migration and destruction of complex societies from the apocalyptic story of Noah’s Ark and the flood, through the ice age to the present time. The development of complex societies and population growth mostly leads to overexploitation of the earth resources to support the complex life styles. In the last century, anthropogenic climate change which is mainly driven by the volume of human emission of greenhou...

  11. Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

    2009-01-01

    Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  12. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...

  13. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... kills over 400 000 people every year – mainly African children under 5 years old. The Aedes mosquito vector of dengue is also highly sensitive to climate conditions, and studies suggest that climate change is likely to continue ...

  14. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  15. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  16. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W.

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  17. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  18. Climate change: against despair

    OpenAIRE

    McKinnon, Catriona

    2014-01-01

    In the face of accelerating climate change and the parlous state of its politics, despair is tempting. This paper analyses two manifestations of despair about climate change related to (1) the inefficacy of personal emissions reductions, and (2) the inability to make a difference to climate change through personal emissions reductions. On the back of an analysis of despair as a loss of hope, the paper argues that the judgements grounding each form of despair are unsound. The paper concludes w...

  19. Climate Change and Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LEDIG, F. Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Conserving forest genetic resources and, indeed, preventing species extinctions will be complicated by the expected changes in climate projected for the next century and beyond. This paper uses case examples from rare spruces (Picea sp. from North America to discuss the interplay of conservation, genetics, and climate change. New models show how climate change will affect these spruces, making it necessary to relocate them if they are to survive, a tool known as assisted migration or, preferably, assisted colonization. The paper concludes with some speculation on the broader implications of climate change, and the relevance of conservation to preserving the necessary ecological services provided by forests.

  20. Chatham Islands Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

    2005-06-01

    This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

  1. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  2. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-07

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  3. Climate change science - beyond IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicholls, N.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The main conclusions of the IPCC Working Group I assessment of the physical science of climate change, from the Fourth IPCC Assessment, will be presented, along with the evidence supporting these conclusions. These conclusions include: Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture; The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report, leading to very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] Wm-2; Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level; At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Palaeo-climatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half-century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years; Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations; Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental

  4. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

    1991-01-01

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  5. Wine and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Ashenfelter, Orley; Storchmann, Karl

    2014-01-01

    In this article we provide an overview of the extensive literature on the impact of weather and climate on grapes and wine with the goal of describing how climate change is likely to affect their production. We start by discussing the physical impact of weather on vine phenology, berry composition and yields, and then survey the economic literature measuring the effects of temperature on wine quality, prices, costs and profits and how climate change will affect these. We also describe what ha...

  6. The Climate Change Regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pattberg, P.H.; Widerberg, O.E.

    2017-01-01

    In 1992, when the international community agreed on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the science of climate change was under development, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were by and large produced by developed countries, and the concentrations of CO2 in the

  7. Synopsis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angela Jardine; Jonathan Long

    2014-01-01

    Changes in climate can interact with other stressors to transform ecosystems and alter the services those ecosystems provide. This synopsis presents themes that run through the synthesis report regarding the impacts of a changing climate on the forests and waters of the synthesis area as well as long-term, broad-scale, science-based strategies to promote system...

  8. The climate is changing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

  9. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, P.

    2000-01-01

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  10. Climate change - the science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hengeveld, H.G.

    2001-01-01

    There is a scientific basis for the concern over climate change. It rests in the fundamental principles of physics and chemistry. In the early months of 2001, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its Working Groups convened a series of meetings in Shanghai, Geneva, Accra and Nairobi to finalize its Third Assessment Report on the science of climate change. The culmination of a two-year process involving more than 2000 scientific and technical experts and intensive peer review, this report provides the most up-to-date and comprehensive assessment of the science of climate change currently available. It will now serve as the scientific basis for ongoing international negotiations on climate change mitigation

  11. Anthropogenic contribution to cloud condensation nuclei and the first aerosol indirect climate effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Fangqun; Ma Xiaoyan; Luo Gan

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric particles influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The first aerosol indirect radiative forcing (FAIRF) constitutes the largest uncertainty among the radiative forcings quantified by the latest IPCC report (IPCC2007) and is a major source of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Here, we investigate the anthropogenic contribution to CCN and associated FAIRF using a state-of-the-art global chemical transport and aerosol model (GEOS-Chem/APM) that contains a number of advanced features (including sectional particle microphysics, online comprehensive chemistry, consideration of all major aerosol species, online aerosol–cloud–radiation calculation, and usage of more accurate assimilated meteorology). The model captures the absolute values and spatial distributions of CCN concentrations measured in situ around the globe. We show that anthropogenic emissions increase the global mean CCN in the lower troposphere by ∼60–80% and cloud droplet number concentration by ∼40%. The global mean FAIRF based on GEOS-Chem/APM is −0.75 W m −2 , close to the median values of both IPCC2007 and post-IPCC2007 studies. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that a global sectional aerosol model with full online chemistry and considering all major aerosol species (including nitrate, ammonium, and second organic aerosols) has been used used to calculate FAIRF. (letter)

  12. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  13. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  14. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  15. Implications of Climate Change for Ghana’s Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Channing Arndt; Felix Asante; James Thurlow

    2015-01-01

    Long-run economic development in Ghana is potentially vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change given the country’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture, hydropower and unpaved rural roads. We use a computable general equilibrium model, informed by detailed sector studies, to estimate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under four climate projections. Climate change is found to always reduce national welfare, with poor and urban households and the northern Savannah zone being the worst ...

  16. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  17. Late Holocene anthropogenic and climatic influences on the regional vegetation of Mexico's Cuenca Oriental

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Tripti; Byrne, Roger

    2016-03-01

    Scholars continue to debate the relative magnitude of pre- and post-Conquest anthropogenic landscape transformation in many regions of Mesoamerica. These debates have important implications for our understanding of the role of anthropogenic practices in the development, or at times degradation, of regional environments. Paleoecological records that provide long-term perspectives on climate change and human land-use patterns are critical to addressing these uncertainties. However, many regions of Mexico including the Cuenca Oriental, a semi-arid basin in the rain shadow of the Sierra Madre Oriental, remain poorly studied. We present a new paleoecological record from sediment cores recovered from Lake Aljojuca, located in the southern part of the basin. Stable isotope analyses of authigenic carbonates provide an independent record of past climate, while pollen and microscopic charcoal provide insights into past vegetation and fire history. The Aljojuca record is one of the only well-dated multi-proxy paleolimnological records from the Cuenca Oriental, and is one of few charcoal studies from highland Mexico. Zea mays pollen and increased fire activity at 2700 calendar years before present (cal yr. BP) suggest Formative period human settlement around the lake. Between 1700 and 800 cal yr BP, a drying climate combined with human uses of fire likely resulted in increases in the extent of xeric scrub vegetation. The Aljojuca record also documents important landscape changes during the historic period ( 430 cal yr. BP-present) likely related to the introduction of invasive species and agricultural intensification. The Aljojuca record provides a unique perspective on human-environment relationships and highlights differences between landscape transformations in the pre- and post-Conquest periods.

  18. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  19. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    ). The thesis concludes that the characteristics of climate change governance are shaped locally through normative and cultural-cognitive mechanisms and strategies for building legitimacy in the integration process. Integration across sectoral departments in the city administration is found to be constrained...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  20. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onyango, J.C.O.; Ojoo-Massawa, E.; Abira, M.A.

    1997-01-01

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  1. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  2. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  3. Chemistry and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernier, Jean-Claude; Brasseur, Guy; Brechet, Yves; Candel, Sebastien; Cazenave, Anny; Courtillot, Vincent; Fontecave, Marc; Garnier, Emmanuel; Goebel, Philippe; Legrand, Jack; Legrand, Michel; Le Treut, Herve; Mauberger, Pascal; Dinh-Audouin, Minh-Thu; Olivier, Daniele; Rigny, Paul; Bigot, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    In its first part, this collective publication addresses the decennial and centuries-old variations of climate: perspectives and implications of climate change for the 21. century, questions remaining about the understanding of climate change from its sources to its modelling, extreme climate variations and societies during the last millennium. The contributions of the second part outline how chemistry is a tool to study climate change: ice chemistry as an archive of our past environment, observations and predictions on sea level rise, relationship between atmosphere chemistry and climate. The third set of contributions discusses the transformation of the energy system for a cleaner atmosphere and the management of the climate risk: the chemical processing of CO 2 , actions of chemical companies to support the struggle against climate change, relationship between barrel price and renewable energies, relationship between grid complexity and green energy. The last part outlines the role chemistry can have to be able to do without fossil fuels: chemistry in front of challenges of transformation of the energy system, the use of micro-algae, the use of hydrogen as a vector of energy transition

  4. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other

  5. Climate change and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

  6. On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: formidable challenges ahead.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanathan, V; Feng, Y

    2008-09-23

    The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4 degrees C (1.4 degrees C to 4.3 degrees C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4 degrees C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4 degrees C to 4.3 degrees C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1 degrees C to 3 degrees C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that approximately 25% (0.6 degrees C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6 degrees C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO(2) mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4 degrees C.

  7. On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanathan, V.; Feng, Y.

    2008-01-01

    The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4°C (1.4°C to 4.3°C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4°C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4°C to 4.3°C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1°C to 3°C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan–Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that ≈25% (0.6°C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6°C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4°C. PMID:18799733

  8. Climate Change Adaptation Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    A list of on-line training modules to help local government officials and those interested in water management issues better understand how the changing climate affects the services and resources they care about

  9. Global Climatic Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  10. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  11. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  12. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  13. Responsibility and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Jamieson, Dale

    2015-01-01

    Ibegin by providing some background to conceptions of responsibility. I note the extent of disagreement in this area, the diverse and cross-cutting distinctions that are deployed, and the relative neglect of some important problems. These facts make it difficult to attribute responsibility for climate change, but so do some features of climate change itself which I go on to illuminate. Attributions of responsibility are often contested sites because such attributions are fundamentally pragmat...

  14. Climate change and forest diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

    2011-01-01

    As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

  15. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

    2012-01-01

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  16. Climate change: Recent findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesselmans, G.H.F.M.

    1993-08-01

    In the late eighties several reports have been published on climate change and sea level rise. In the meantime insights may have changed due to the availability of better and more observations and/or more advanced climate models. The aim of this report is to present the most recent findings with respect to climate change, in particular of sea level rise, storm surges and river peak flows. These climate factors are important for the safety of low-lying areas with respect to coastal erosion and flooding. In the first chapters a short review is presented of a few of the eighties reports. Furthermore, the predictions by state of the art climate models at that time are given. The reports from the eighties should be considered as 'old' information, whereas the IPCC supplement and work, for example, by Wigley should be considered as new information. To assess the latest findings two experts in this field were interviewed: dr J. Oerlemans and dr C.J.E. Schuurmans, a climate expert from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Their views are presented together with results published in recent papers on the subject. On the basis of this assessment, the report presents current knowledge regarding predictions of climate change (including sea-level rise) over the next century, together with an assessment of the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 14 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs

  17. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

  18. Satellite Earth observation data to identify climate and anthropogenic pressures on Bucharest periurban forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zoran, Maria; Savastru, Roxana; Savastru, Dan [National Institute of R& D for Optoelectronics, MG5 Bucharest-Magurele, 077125 Romania (Romania); Dida, Adrian [University Transylvania of Brasov, Brasov (Romania)

    2016-03-25

    Satellite Earth observation data in the visible and near-infrared (VNIR) wavelengths represent a useful source of information for forest systems monitoring through derived biogeophysical parameters (vegetation index, leaf area index, canopy cover, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, chlorophyll content, net primary production, canopy water stress, etc.). Use of satellite remote sensing data to assess forest spatio-temporal changes due to climatic or anthropogenic stressors is an excellent example of the value of multispectral and multitemporal observations. Fusion technique was applied to time-series multispectral and multitemporal satellite imagery (NOAA AVHRR, MODIS Terra/Aqua, Landsat ETM and IKONOS satellite data) for periurban forest areas Cernica-Branesti, placed in the neighboring of Bucharest town, Romania, over 2002-2014 period.

  19. Climate Change and the Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Dettinger

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2016v14iss3art5Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR during the 20th century was about 22 cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict

  20. Climate change and the Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

  1. Observed climate change hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Palazzi, E.; Hardenberg, J.; Provenzale, A.

    2015-05-01

    We quantify climate change hotspots from observations, taking into account the differences in precipitation and temperature statistics (mean, variability, and extremes) between 1981-2010 and 1951-1980. Areas in the Amazon, the Sahel, tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and central eastern Asia emerge as primary observed hotspots. The main contributing factors are the global increase in mean temperatures, the intensification of extreme hot-season occurrence in low-latitude regions and the decrease of precipitation over central Africa. Temperature and precipitation variability have been substantially stable over the past decades, with only a few areas showing significant changes against the background climate variability. The regions identified from the observations are remarkably similar to those defined from projections of global climate models under a "business-as-usual" scenario, indicating that climate change hotspots are robust and persistent over time. These results provide a useful background to develop global policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation priorities over near-time horizons.

  2. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  3. Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomas, Felicity; Sabel, Clive E.; Morton, Katherine

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained...

  4. Climate Change and Global Warming: Implications for Sub-Saharan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study reviews the potential threats of climate change in sub-Sahara Africa. It paints a picture of how the major green house gases (GHGs)-CO2, CH4 will grow in the sub-continent before the year 2015. The study also highlights the potential causes of climate change in the sub-continent based on anthropogenic and ...

  5. Climate change and agricultural water demand: Impacts and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Global climate change related to natural and anthropogenic processes has been the topic of concern and interest world - wide. One of the most significant impacts of the 'greenhouse effect' is anticipated to be on water resources. Thus, the impact of climate change appears to be an additional component on top of the large ...

  6. Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

    2007-01-01

    Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the

  7. Impacts of climate change on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the "normal" climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety...... experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production...... are evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes...

  8. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  9. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  10. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  11. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephanie K. Moore; Vera L. Trainer; Nathan J. Mantua; Micaela S. Parker; Edward A. Laws; Lorraine C. Backer; Lora E. Fleming

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes...

  12. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  13. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  14. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, D.; Landais, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...

  15. The social construct of climate and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stehr, N.

    1994-01-01

    Different time scales of climate change and their differential perception in society are discussed. A historical examination of natural climate changes during the past millennium suggests that short-term changes, especially crucial changes, trigger a significant response in and by society. Short-term changes correspond to the 'time horizon of everyday life', that is, to a time scale from days and weeks to a few years. The anticipated anthropogenic climate changes, however, are expected to occur on a longer time scale. They require a response by society not on the basis of primary experience but on the basis of scientifically constructed scenarios and ways in which such information is represented in the modern media for example. Socio-economic impact research relies on concepts that are based on the premise of perfectly informed actors for the development of optimal adaptation strategies. In contrast to such a conception, we develop the concept of a 'social construct of climate' as decisive for the public perception of scientific knowledge about climate and for public policy on climate change. The concept is illustrated using a number of examples. (orig.)

  16. Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Mahowald

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

  17. Climate change and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, M.

    2000-04-01

    The nuclear industry has increased its efforts to have nuclear power plants integrated into the post- Kyoto negotiating process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) states: ''For many reasons, current and future nuclear energy projects are a superior method of generating emission credits that must be considered as the US expands the use of market- based mechanisms designed around emission credit creation and trading to achieve environmental goals ''. The NEI considers that nuclear energy should be allowed to enter all stages of the Kyoto ''flexibility Mechanisms'': emissions trading, joint implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. The industry sees the operation of nuclear reactors as emission ''avoidance actions'' and believes that increasing the generation of nuclear power above the 1990 baseline year either through extension and renewal of operating licenses or new nuclear plant should be accepted under the flexibility mechanisms in the same way as wind, solar and hydro power. For the time being, there is no clear definition of the framework conditions for operating the flexibility mechanisms. However, eligible mechanisms must contribute to the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention of preventing ''dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system''. The information presented in the following sections of this report underlines that nuclear power is not a sustainable source of energy, for many reasons. In conclusion, an efficient greenhouse gas abatement strategy will be based on energy efficiency and not on the use of nuclear power. (author)

  18. Can beaches survive climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.

  19. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  20. Climate change impacts: birds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomotani, B.M.; Ramakers, J.J.C.; Gienapp, P.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can affect populations and species in various ways. Rising temperatures can shift geographical distributions and lead to (phenotypic or genetic) changes in traits, mostly phenology, which may affect demography. Most of these effects are well documented in birds. For example, the

  1. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to

  2. The Earth's Changing Climate

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    GENERAL I ARTICLE. The Earth's Changing Climate. Man-Made Changes and Their Consequences. PKDas is a former Director. General of the Meteoro- logical Department of. India. After retiring in. 1983, he taught Meteorolo- gy at the University of. Nairobi in Kenya (1983·85) and later at the Indian. Institute of Technology.

  3. Potential Impact of South Asian Anthropogenic Aerosols on Northern Hemisphere Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollasina, M. A.; Ming, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.

    2014-12-01

    South Asia has one of the world's highest aerosol loading due to the dramatic increase of anthropogenic emissions from the 1950s associated with rapid urbanization and population growth. The possible large-scale impact of the late 20th century increase of South Asian aerosol emissions on climate away from the source regions was studied by means of historical ensemble experiments with a state-of-the-art coupled climate model with fully interactive aerosols and a representation of both direct and indirect aerosol effects. The key characteristics of the northern hemisphere responses are examined separately for winter and summer, and show that regional aerosols induce significant planetary-scale teleconnection patterns. In both seasons, the large-scale aerosol imprint originates from substantial changes in the regional precipitation distribution. During the winter, in response to anomalous surface cooling in the northern Indian Ocean, aerosols cause a westward shift of convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and compensating subsidence to the west and over the Maritime continent. During the summer, aerosols are collocated with rainfall, and cause a widespread drying over South Asia mostly by indirect effects. In both cases, the impact of the regional diabatic heating anomaly propagates remotely by exciting a northern hemisphere wave-train which, enhanced by regional feedbacks, leads to remarkable changes in near-surface climate, including circulation and temperature, over Eurasia, the northern Pacific and North America. Depending on the region, the induced anomalies may have opposite signs between the two seasons, and may thus contribute to reinforcing or dampening those due greenhouse gases. These results underscore the potential influence of Asian aerosols on global climate, which is a compelling problem as regional aerosol loading will continue to be large in the coming decades.

  4. Adaptability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprague, M.W.

    1991-01-01

    The potential social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change are reviewed, with emphasis on agricultural implications. Impact analyses must be done on the scale of watersheds or river basins. For agriculture, climate change effects on water resources are likely to be more important than temperature changes, and climatic variability is also equally important. Another set of critical climatic variables are the frequencies, magnitudes and timing of extreme events such as floods, droughts, etc. A carbon dioxide enriched atmosphere will increase water use efficiency and confer increased tolerance to drought, salinity and air pollution. Better understanding and accounting is required for the effects of increased carbon dioxide on all plant life, including crops. Adaptability of agriculture to change must be taken into account in predicting impacts of climate change, with technological innovation and infrastructure giving agriculture a dynamic nature. Limitations and adaptations must be considered when formulating public policy, to ensure that marginal costs do not exceed marginal benefits. Monoculture plantation forests may be the most efficient sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide, yet widespread reliance on them may harm biological diversity. Actions the U.S. is currently taking under a no-regrets policy are summarized

  5. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  6. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  7. Climate Change and Food Security: Health Impacts in Developed Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Lake, Iain R.; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R.; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. Objectives: We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Methods: Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food pro...

  8. Consequences of Climate Change and Gender Vulnerability: Bangladesh Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Zayeda Sharmin; Mohammad Samiul Islam

    2013-01-01

    Bangladesh’s geographic location and geo-morphological conditions have made the country one of the most vulnerable to weather and climate induced changes. Bangladesh is a land of wetlands, which occupy around 50 percent of the country. Wetlands play a crucial role in maintaining the ecological balance of ecosystems, but wetland habitats of Bangladesh are under constant threats due to climate induced changes and anthropogenic activities. Climate change is causing a rise in sea levels, which al...

  9. Mitigating Toxic Planktonic Cyanobacterial Blooms in Aquatic Ecosystems Facing Increasing Anthropogenic and Climatic Pressures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans W. Paerl

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Toxic planktonic cyanobacterial blooms are a pressing environmental and human health problem. Blooms are expanding globally and threatening sustainability of our aquatic resources. Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment and hydrological modifications, including water diversions and reservoir construction, are major drivers of bloom expansion. Climatic change, i.e., warming, more extreme rainfall events, and droughts, act synergistically with human drivers to exacerbate the problem. Bloom mitigation steps, which are the focus of this review, must consider these dynamic interactive factors in order to be successful in the short- and long-term. Furthermore, these steps must be applicable along the freshwater to marine continuum connecting streams, lakes, rivers, estuarine, and coastal waters. There is an array of physical, chemical, and biological approaches, including flushing, mixing, dredging, application of algaecides, precipitating phosphorus, and selective grazing, that may arrest and reduce bloom intensities in the short-term. However, to ensure long term, sustainable success, targeting reductions of both nitrogen and phosphorus inputs should accompany these approaches along the continuum. Lastly, these strategies should accommodate climatic variability and change, which will likely modulate and alter nutrient-bloom thresholds.

  10. Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic acidification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNeil, Ben I.; Matear, Richard J.

    2007-01-01

    Oceanic anthropogenic CO 2 uptake will decrease both the pH and the aragonite saturation state (Oarag) of seawater leading to an oceanic acidification. However, the factors controlling future changes in pH and Oarag are independent and will respond differently to oceanic climate change feedbacks such as ocean warming, circulation and biological changes. We examine the sensitivity of these two CO 2 -related parameters to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The ocean warming feedback was found to dominate the climate change responses in the surface ocean. Although surface pH is projected to decrease relatively uniformly by about 0.3 by the year 2100, we find pH to be insensitive to climate change feedbacks, whereas Oarag is buffered by ∼15%. Ocean carbonate chemistry creates a situation whereby the direct pH changes due to ocean warming are almost cancelled by the pH changes associated with dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations changes via a reduction in CO 2 solubility from ocean warming. We show that the small climate change feedback on future surface ocean pH is independent to the amount of ocean warming. Our analysis therefore implies that future projections of surface ocean acidification only need to consider future atmospheric CO 2 levels, not climate change induced modifications in the ocean

  11. Climate and anthropogenic impacts on forest vegetation derived from satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, M.; Savastru, R.; Savastru, D.; Tautan, M.; Miclos, S.; Baschir, L.

    2010-09-01

    Vegetation and climate interact through a series of complex feedbacks, which are not very well understood. The patterns of forest vegetation are largely determined by temperature, precipitation, solar irradiance, soil conditions and CO2 concentration. Vegetation impacts climate directly through moisture, energy, and momentum exchanges with the atmosphere and indirectly through biogeochemical processes that alter atmospheric CO2 concentration. Changes in forest vegetation land cover/use alter the surface albedo and radiation fluxes, leading to a local temperature change and eventually a vegetation response. This albedo (energy) feedback is particularly important when forests mask snow cover. Forest vegetation-climate feedback regimes are designated based on the temporal correlations between the vegetation and the surface temperature and precipitation. The different feedback regimes are linked to the relative importance of vegetation and soil moisture in determining land-atmosphere interactions. Forest vegetation phenology constitutes an efficient bio-indicator of impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes and a key parameter for understanding and modeling vegetation-climate interactions. Climate variability represents the ensemble of net radiation, precipitation, wind and temperature characteristic for a region in a certain time scale (e.g.monthly, seasonal annual). The temporal and/or spatial sensitivity of forest vegetation dynamics to climate variability is used to characterize the quantitative relationship between these two quantities in temporal and/or spatial scales. So, climate variability has a great impact on the forest vegetation dynamics. Satellite remote sensing is a very useful tool to assess the main phenological events based on tracking significant changes on temporal trajectories of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIs), which requires NDVI time-series with good time resolution, over homogeneous area, cloud-free and not affected by

  12. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  13. Ireland and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rzepski, G.; Lerouge, Ch.

    2010-05-01

    As the rise of sea level, the higher frequency of tempests, and the threat of water shortages in some parts of the country are the major stakes for Ireland in the struggle against climate change, this report gives an overview of greenhouse gas emissions in this country (globally and per sector) and of their evolution. It presents the Irish policy to struggle against climate change since 2000, its public actors (ministries, agencies), its different action plans (National Climate Change Strategy, energy sector planning, promotion of renewable energies, transport sector planning), and sector-based and tax measures implemented in Ireland. It discusses the limitations of the current policy (insufficient results, limited domestic measures, socioeconomic obstacles, complex political steering), describes the new European context and the present Irish context (economic crisis). Some new orientations are discussed

  14. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  15. Arctic Climate and Climate Change with a Focus on Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Petersen, Dorthe

    2008-01-01

    in this report, "very likely" corresponds to a likelihood of more than 90%. that the increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has an effect, which is larger in the Arctic than elsewhere on the globe (Christensen et al., 2007a). In recent years, concerns about the stability of the Greenland...... Ice Sheet, the fate of arctic sea ice and a possible weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC) under future warming conditions have led to increased research activities, including an assessment of arctic climate and climate change (ACIA, 2005), the fourth assessment report (AR4...... of reliable observations and, for projections of future climate, the large natural variability that makes it difficult to detect an anthropogenic climate signal. Further uncertainties are due to the underlying emission scenarios as well as model uncertainties and deficiencies including insufficient horizontal...

  16. Climate change: is Southeast Asia up to the challenge?: forest and climate change policy: what are the costs of inaction?

    OpenAIRE

    Tim Forsyth

    2010-01-01

    Deforestation and forest degradation are some of the main contributors to anthropogenic climate change. Accordingly, policies to arrest deforestation or increase forest areas are proposed as important forms of climate change policy. This paper summarizes current proposals for addressing the contribution of forests to climate change, and the political problems of implementing these policies, especially in developing countries. The paper argues that current estimates of the likely sequestration...

  17. Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlson, Robert J.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Hostetler, Chris (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the first two years of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this two-year grant consisted in the development and deployment of a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180' backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Measurements were made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with targeted in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator and radiative transfer modeling by the University of Lille, France.

  18. Perceptions of and Attitudes Toward Climate Change in the Southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Himmelfarb; John Schelhas; Sarah Hitchner; Cassandra Johnson Gaither; KathErine Dunbar; J. Peter. Brosius

    2014-01-01

    Despite a global scientific consensus on the anthropogenic nature of climate change, the issue remains highly contentious in the United States, stifling public debate and action on the issue. Local perceptions of and attitudes toward climate change-how different groups of people outside of the professional climate science community make sense of changes in climate in...

  19. Climate change and birds: perspectives and prospects from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Global climate warming, now conclusively linked to anthropogenically-increased CO2 levels in the earth\\'s atmosphere, has already had impacts on the earth\\'s biodiversity and is predicted to threaten more than 1 million species with extinction by 2050. Climate change in southern Africa is expected to involve higher ...

  20. Adapting to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constance I. Millar; Christopher W. Swanston; David L. Peterson

    2014-01-01

    Federal agencies have led the development of adaptation principles and tools in forest ecosystems over the past decade. Successful adaptation efforts generally require organizations to: (1) develop science-management partnerships, (2) provide education on climate change science, (3) provide a toolkit of methods and processes for vulnerability assessment and adaptation...

  1. Climate change and schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheffield, Perry E.; Uijttewaal, Simone A.M.; Stewart, James; Galvez, Maida P.

    2017-01-01

    The changing climate is creating additional challenges in maintaining a healthy school environment in the United States (US) where over 50 million people, mostly children, spend approximately a third of their waking hours. Chronic low prioritization of funds and resources to support environmental

  2. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  3. Climate change reference guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    At the heart of climate change is the greenhouse effect, in which molecules of various gases trap heat in Earths atmosphere and keep it warm enough to support life. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are an important part of Ea...

  4. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

  5. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  6. Climate Change? When? Where?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, Helen

    2009-01-01

    Regional Australian students were surveyed to explore their understanding and knowledge of the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion and climate change. Results were compared with a parallel study undertaken in 1991 in a regional UK city. The comparison was conducted to investigate whether more awareness and understanding of these issues is…

  7. The consequences of poaching and anthropogenic change for forest elephants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, Thomas; Maisels, Fiona; Fishlock, Vicki

    2016-10-01

    Poaching has devastated forest elephant populations (Loxodonta cyclotis), and their habitat is dramatically changing. The long-term effects of poaching and other anthropogenic threats have been well studied in savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana), but the impacts of these changes for Central Africa's forest elephants have not been discussed. We examined potential repercussions of these threats and the related consequences for forest elephants in Central Africa by summarizing the lessons learned from savannah elephants and small forest elephant populations in West Africa. Forest elephant social organization is less known than the social organization of savannah elephants, but the close evolutionary history of these species suggests that they will respond to anthropogenic threats in broadly similar ways. The loss of older, experienced individuals in an elephant population disrupts ecological, social, and population parameters. Severe reduction of elephant abundance within Central Africa's forests can alter plant communities and ecosystem functions. Poaching, habitat alterations, and human population increase are probably compressing forest elephants into protected areas and increasing human-elephant conflict, which negatively affects their conservation. We encourage conservationists to look beyond documenting forest elephant population decline and address the causes of these declines when developing conversation strategies. We suggest assessing the effectiveness of the existing protected-area networks for landscape connectivity in light of current industrial and infrastructure development. Longitudinal assessments of the effects of landscape changes on forest elephant sociality and behavior are also needed. Finally, lessons learned from West African elephant population loss and habitat fragmentation should be used to inform strategies for land-use planning and managing human-elephant interactions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  8. Ruang Terbuka Hijau Dalam Mitigasi Perubahan Iklim Green Open Space in Climate Change Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Dewi, Yusriani Sapta

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is any substantial change in Earth's climate that lasts for an extended period oftime. Global warming refers to climate change that causes an increase in the average temperature of thelower atmosphere. Global warming is the combined result of anthropogenic (human-caused) emissionsof greenhouse gases and changes in solar irradiance, while climate change refers to any change in thestate of the climate that can be identified by changes in the average and/or the variability of its ...

  9. About climate changes impact on the Kazakhstan pastures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebed', L.V.; Belenkova, Z.S.; Turbacheva, T.P.

    1997-01-01

    Assessment of arid pastures vulnerability situated under direct influence of regional climate change related with greenhouse effect is carried out on Northern Aral Sea area as example. Climate change variants calculated with future prospects for on Kazakhstan territory with use up-to-date models of GFDL (USA), CCCM (Canada) climate theory are used. Number of protective measures are proposed for mitigation of consequences of possible vulnerability of pastures during simultaneous impact of complex of anthropogenic and natural factors. (author)

  10. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    alireza kochaki; mehdi nasiry; gholamali kamali

    2009-01-01

    Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the e...

  11. Register of the last 1000 years of environmental, climatic and anthropogenic change in Isla Grande de Chiloé, inferred through a multi-proxy approach: Lake Pastahué, Chile-South Center (42°S)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troncoso, Jose; Alvarez, Denisse; Díaz, Gustavo; Fierro, Pablo; Araneda, Alberto; Torrejón, Fernando; Rondanelli, Mauricio; Fagel, Nathalie; Urrutia, Roberto

    2017-04-01

    Knowledge of the past environmental and climatic conditions of the lake ecosystems of the Isla Grande de Chiloé and its relationship with the anthropic effect, on a high temporal resolution scale, is scarcely known. Specifically, multi-proxy studies provide a better understanding of the context in which changes occurred in the past. This insular region is particularly interesting because environmental conditions (pre and post-Hispanic) and knowledge about the impacts generated in the ecosystems during the Spanish colonization process have so far been little studied, compared to the rest of Chile continental. This research is a new contribution to the scarce information existing for the last millennium of the Isla Grande de Chiloé. The objective of this work was to reconstruct the environmental and climatic history of the last 1000 years, from the Lake Pastahué, in the Isla Grande de Chiloé through a multi-proxy analysis and compare them with other records for the region. The core sediment was sub-sampled to perform sedimentological analysis (organic matter, carbonates, magnetic susceptibility and granulometry) and biological indicators (pollen, chironomids). The age model was constructed from the activity of 210Pb,137Cs and 14C. The pollen results reveal a composition of nordpatagónico forest represented by Nothofagus, Weinmannia, Drimys, Tepualia, Myrtaceae, Poaceae and Pteridophyta, while the anthropic effect for the last cm of the profile is represented by Rumex and Pinus. The results show a significant increase in magnetic susceptibility since the middle of the 20th century, suggesting an increase in allochthonous material to the lake. The sedimentological parameters and the chironomid assembly show similar variations along the profile, which also shows changes in the trophic state of the lake. The changes recorded in lake Pastahue are directly related to past climatic phenomena occurring in the last millennium, such as the medieval climatic anomaly (MCA

  12. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  13. Climate change and coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schellnhuber, H.J.; Sterr, H.

    1993-01-01

    The investigation of climatic processes and behaviour examines the effects of climatic changes on human beings and the surrounding environment. The authors discuss, in a wide-subject perspective, the regional impacts of the greenhouse effect, increase of the sea level, and changed conditions of both precipitation and wind using the North and Baltic Sea as examples. In this effort, questions dealing with changes of water level, motion and (disturbance) of the sea and morphodynamic in the coastal apron, in reference to requirements on a future protection of the shore, are handled. In addition, not only the aspects of ecosystem-orientated adaption in the strip of land between the continent northern islands 'Wattenmeer' and ground landscape (Bodenlandschaft) are taken into consideration, but also the impact of these on human beings and their interest to use the coastal regions. (orig.). 102 figs., 9 tabs [de

  14. Tropical Rainforest responses to climatic changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, M.B. [Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences; Flenley, J.R. [Massey Univ. (New Zealand). School of People, Environment and Planning

    2007-07-01

    The goal of this book is to provide a current overview of the impacts of climate change on tropical forests, to investigate past, present, and future climatic influences on the ecosystems with the highest biodiversity on the planet. ''Tropical Rainforest Responses to Climatic Change'' will be the first book to examine how tropical rain forest ecology is altered by climate change, rather than simply seeing how plant communities were altered. Shifting the emphasis onto ecological processes e.g. how diversity is structured by climate and the subsequent impact on tropical forest ecology, provides the reader with a more comprehensive coverage. A major theme of this book that emerges progressively is the interaction between humans, climate and forest ecology. While numerous books have appeared dealing with forest fragmentation and conservation, none have explicitly explored the long term occupation of tropical systems, the influence of fire and the future climatic effects of deforestation, coupled with anthropogenic emissions. Incorporating modelling of past and future systems paves the way for a discussion of conservation from a climatic perspective, rather than the usual plea to stop logging. (orig.)

  15. Climate change risk perception and communication: addressing a critical moment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidgeon, Nick

    2012-06-01

    Climate change is an increasingly salient issue for societies and policy-makers worldwide. It now raises fundamental interdisciplinary issues of risk and uncertainty analysis and communication. The growing scientific consensus over the anthropogenic causes of climate change appears to sit at odds with the increasing use of risk discourses in policy: for example, to aid in climate adaptation decision making. All of this points to a need for a fundamental revision of our conceptualization of what it is to do climate risk communication. This Special Collection comprises seven papers stimulated by a workshop on "Climate Risk Perceptions and Communication" held at Cumberland Lodge Windsor in 2010. Topics addressed include climate uncertainties, images and the media, communication and public engagement, uncertainty transfer in climate communication, the role of emotions, localization of hazard impacts, and longitudinal analyses of climate perceptions. Climate change risk perceptions and communication work is critical for future climate policy and decisions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiem, Anthony S.; Clifton, Craig; Jordan, Phillip

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Recent climatic conditions (i.e. drier than average conditions for the last 10 years or more) have placed many water resource systems in south-eastern Australia near critical thresholds. Management systems are, or soon will be, at the limits of their adaptive capacity. While it is possible this situation largely reflects vulnerability to natural climatic variability, impacts of anthropogenic climate change may further expose the vulnerability of these systems. Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. In many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades, and is also being increasingly affected by anthropogenic influences. Both factors will continue to influence Australia's climate, even if immediate action is taken to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Long-term resource planning by water authorities must account for both climate variation and climate change to avoid over-allocation of water resources and to ensure economic activity based on utilisation of water resources is not unnecessarily restricted. Awareness of the vulnerability of water resources to anthropogenic climate change and uncertainty about the nature of those changes has lead to a reappraisal of which climate sequence(s) should be used in water resource planning

  17. A changing climate of skepticism: The factors shaping climate change coverage in the US press.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid-Petri, Hannah; Adam, Silke; Schmucki, Ivo; Häussler, Thomas

    2017-05-01

    Skepticism toward climate change has a long tradition in the United States. We focus on mass media as the conveyors of the image of climate change and ask: Is climate change skepticism still a characteristic of US print media coverage? If so, to what degree and in what form? And which factors might pave the way for skeptics entering mass media debates? We conducted a quantitative content analysis of US print media during one year (1 June 2012 to 31 May 2013). Our results show that the debate has changed: fundamental forms of climate change skepticism (such as denial of anthropogenic causes) have been abandoned in the coverage, being replaced by more subtle forms (such as the goal to avoid binding regulations). We find no evidence for the norm of journalistic balance, nor do our data support the idea that it is the conservative press that boosts skepticism.

  18. Smithsonian climate change exhibits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Mohi

    2006-05-01

    Two new museum exhibits, ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely'' and ``Atmosphere: Change is in the Air'' opened 15 April at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C., in partnership with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. In ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely,'' anecdotes from indigenous polar people reveal how climate changes have affected life within the last 50 years. For example, as permafrost melts and sea ice shrinks, plant distributions and animal migration patterns are changing, severely affecting culture.

  19. The influence of climatic and anthropogenic factors on hydrological regime of rivers at the south of Krasnoyarsk Krai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Burenia

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite a large number of publications covering various aspects of the influence of climatic factors on runoff, this direction in hydrological research acquires a new meaning in connection with the increase in anthropogenic pressure on river systems. In order to identify regional and local features of the hydrological regime of the rivers in Sayan mountain region, the spatial and temporal dynamics of runoff of the main rivers in the study area were analyzed; the analysis of river flow trends against the backdrop of climate change and forest management in the drain areas was performed. Studies have shown that the revealed trends in the annual runoff of the studied rivers differ in type and in magnitude. The hydrological regime of the rivers with the negative trend of annual runoff is determined by the general nature of the humidification of the territory, which overrides the influence of all other factors. Despite a general trend of decreasing precipitation, the positive trend of annual runoff is due to a decrease in evaporation in the drainage areas, which depends both on the temperature regime of the research area and on the anthropogenic transformation of forest vegetation under logging impact. In spite of the considerable variability of annual river flow, trends in runoff coefficients for study rivers vary slightly, indicating the relative stability in water availability. This is due to cumulative effect of anthropogenic transformation of forest vegetation in the drainage areas, i.e. new felling, regeneration on logging sites and creating forest crops. Obtained results show that at the regional level in conditions of anthropogenic pressure on the forests in the drainage areas of medium and small rivers, the trends of climatic parameters, in particular precipitation, are offset by the forest harvesting and subsequent reforestation dynamics at clear cuts.

  20. Detecting and attributing an anthropogenic influence on climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santer, B.D.; Taylor, K.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore (United States); Jones, P.D. [East Anglia Univ. (United States). Climatic Research Unit; Wigley, T.M.L. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder (United States); Penner, J.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore (United States). Global Climate Research Div.; Cubasch, U. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    A pattern correlation statistic is used, R(t), to compare the observed pattern temperature change with that predicted by the equilibrium model results with carbon dioxide and sulphate aerosols forcing. The results indicate that in JJA and SON the pattern of changes is showing similarities with the observations. The significance of the trends in R(t) is assessed, using the century-long control integrations of two coupled ocean atmosphere GCMs. Although results are robust to both model integrations there are doubts whether such models adequately represent the full range of natural variability on the century timescale when compared with paleoclimatic data. (author)

  1. Weather it's Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostrom, A.; Lashof, D.

    2004-12-01

    For almost two decades both national polls and in-depth studies of global warming perceptions have shown that people commonly conflate weather and global climate change. Not only are current weather events such as anecdotal heat waves, droughts or cold spells treated as evidence for or against global warming, but weather changes such as warmer weather and increased storm intensity and frequency are the consequences most likely to come to mind. Distinguishing weather from climate remains a challenge for many. This weather 'framing' of global warming may inhibit behavioral and policy change in several ways. Weather is understood as natural, on an immense scale that makes controlling it difficult to conceive. Further, these attributes contribute to perceptions that global warming, like weather, is uncontrollable. This talk presents an analysis of data from public opinion polls, focus groups, and cognitive studies regarding people's mental models of and 'frames' for global warming and climate change, and the role weather plays in these. This research suggests that priming people with a model of global warming as being caused by a "thickening blanket of carbon dioxide" that "traps heat" in the atmosphere solves some of these communications problems and makes it more likely that people will support policies to address global warming.

  2. Impacts of climate change on fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-02-01

    Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the "normal" climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety of direct and indirect effects of a number of physical and chemical factors, which include temperature, winds, vertical mixing, salinity, oxygen, pH and others. The direct effects act on the physiology, development rates, reproduction, behaviour and survival of individuals and can in some cases be studied experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production are evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes can be investigated in experiments and by analysis of field data, particularly by assembling comparative data from regional examples. Although our existing knowledge is in many respects incomplete it nevertheless provides an adequate basis for improved management of fisheries and of marine ecosystems and for adapting to climate change. In order to adapt to changing climate, future monitoring and research must be closely linked to responsive, flexible and reflexive management systems.

  3. Climate Change: Consensus or Controversy?

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholls, Neville

    2006-01-01

    The hundreds of scientists comprising the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) maintain that there is a consensus that humans are changing the global climate. Yet many commentators in the media dispute this, and a reader of such commentaries would surely conclude that climate change is a controversy rather than a consensus. This is simply incorrect – the overwhelming majority of climate scientists accept the reality of the greenhouse effect and its impact on the current climate. T...

  4. Impacts of anthropogenic forcing on regional climate simulation for CORDEX-East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Song Yee; Kang, Hyun Suk; Hyun, Yu Kyung

    2015-04-01

    Impacts of greenhouse gas and aerosol on climate change are crucial, so that it is trivial for CMIP models to consider anthropogenic forcing for current climate simulations and future projection as well. Meanwhile, for regional climate models, it is still ambiguous if those forcings are duplicated or not, since the large-scale information is provided from the GCM models through the lateral boundary condition. To answer this question, four experiments using the HadGEM3-RA were conducted within the CORDEX framework for the East Asia domain, which are defined as FIXF (Fixed forcing experiment), GHGS (Greenhouse gases forcing only on the FIXF), AERO (Aerosol forcing only on the FIXF), and ALL (Both forcings on the FIXF) experiments. All experiments were driven by the same GCM forcing, i.e., HadGEM2-AO. Simulation results for the current (27 years for 1979-2005) and future (30 years for 2071-2100) climate were analyzed. FIXF experiment simulated significant cold biases near the northwestern China and Mongolia. Compared to results from the FIXF, those from the ALL and AERO were better, particularly for the temperature in northwestern China and for the precipitation in southern China, Indonesia and northwestern Pacific. Reduced cold bias in northwestern China is highly associated with the aerosol forcing, and marginally associated with the greenhouse gases forcing. As a result, temperature simulated by ALL experiment shows less bias than any other experiments. In the future, surface air temperature was projected stronger in ALL than FIXF experiment in late 21st century. Especially, based on the future projection from the ALL experiment, increase in domain-averaged surface air temperature is about 3.0oC (4.2oC) under the RCP 4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In future change of precipitation, regardless of forcing experiments, annual mean precipitation over maritime continent and northwestern Pacific are expected to increase. And percent change in annual mean precipitation of ALL

  5. Climate change and nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, M

    2000-04-01

    The nuclear industry has increased its efforts to have nuclear power plants integrated into the post- Kyoto negotiating process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) states: ''For many reasons, current and future nuclear energy projects are a superior method of generating emission credits that must be considered as the US expands the use of market- based mechanisms designed around emission credit creation and trading to achieve environmental goals ''. The NEI considers that nuclear energy should be allowed to enter all stages of the Kyoto ''flexibility Mechanisms'': emissions trading, joint implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. The industry sees the operation of nuclear reactors as emission ''avoidance actions'' and believes that increasing the generation of nuclear power above the 1990 baseline year either through extension and renewal of operating licenses or new nuclear plant should be accepted under the flexibility mechanisms in the same way as wind, solar and hydro power. For the time being, there is no clear definition of the framework conditions for operating the flexibility mechanisms. However, eligible mechanisms must contribute to the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention of preventing ''dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system''. The information presented in the following sections of this report underlines that nuclear power is not a sustainable source of energy, for many reasons. In conclusion, an efficient greenhouse gas abatement strategy will be based on energy efficiency and not on the use of nuclear power. (author)

  6. Climate change and amphibians

    OpenAIRE

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines i...

  7. Climate change and climate policy; Klimaendringer og klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done

  8. Alterations to groundwater recharge due to anthropogenic landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Dongmei; Currell, Matthew J.; Cao, Guoliang; Hall, Benjamin

    2017-11-01

    The impacts of anthropogenic modifications to the landscape on groundwater recharge rates, locations, and mechanisms are reviewed. The two major categories of change examined are conversion of land for agriculture and urbanization, both of which have significant effects on groundwater recharge. Techniques for identifying and quantifying the changes in recharge due to these impacts are discussed. Land-clearing for agriculture and surface water transfer for irrigation have resulted in order of magnitude increases in recharge rates in many semi-arid regions worldwide, causing ongoing land and water salinization and water-logging problems. While increased recharge by irrigation return flow may alleviate shallow groundwater depletion in some settings, this is complicated by the effect of unsaturated zone thickening, which reduces the fraction of potential recharge becoming actual recharge, and may result in new water quality risks such as nitrate contamination. Expansion of urban and peri-urban land and their associated surface and sub-surface infrastructure results in complex water balance changes that re-distribute groundwater recharge locations, modify recharge mechanism(s) and result in variable impacts on recharge rates (e.g., overall net decrease, increase or minimal change) and quality. While changes to groundwater recharge resulting from conversion of land for agriculture are relatively well understood, less is documented about the changes resulting from urbanization, due to a paucity of data from field-based studies. Two case studies from Beijing, China and Melbourne Australia are examined, which highlight these impacts and demonstrate some potential methodological techniques for this topic.

  9. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  10. Stop the climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tissot, B.

    2003-04-01

    This book tries to answer today's main environmental questions relative to the climatic change: how our massive petroleum and coal consumption has led to a greenhouse effect? What will happen tomorrow when Chinese and Indian people will reach the same energy consumption levels as people of western countries? Is it too late to reverse the trend? If solar energy is the long-term solution, what can we do in the meantime? The author presents the conditions we must fulfill to keep the Earth in a good environmental condition: 1 - a brief story of energy; 2 - the climatic changes and their secrets; 3 - the greenhouse effect: necessary for life but worrying for the future; 4 - the energy demand and the stakes; 2 - fossil fuels: abundance or shortage? 6 - can we fight against greenhouse gases? 7 - the nuclear energy (reactors and wastes management); 8 - the renewable energies: a necessary contribution at the century scale and the unique answer at the millennium scale; 9 - the time of main choices is not so far; 10 - two questions (energy demand and climatic change) and a unique answer (sustainable development). (J.S.)

  11. Water, climate change and society in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiele-Eich, I.; Simmer, C.

    2017-12-01

    Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh with a population of over 17 million people, is among the top five coastal cities most vulnerable to climate change, with over 30 % of the population living in slums. Effective disaster mitigation and adaptation requires an understanding how hazards such as flooding impact the population. The impacts of climate change on flooding and thus livelihoods in the complex delta of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna rivers can not be treated isolated from other anthropogenic impacts due to e.g. the construction of dams as well as a growing population. We illustrate this by setting up a conceptual socio-hydrological causal network using the enhanced Driving force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response framework. The constructed socio-hydrological framework includes both natural and anthropogenic processes and their two-way feedbacks, allowing policy makers to know where available resources can be used effectively to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. We conclude that climate change takes place over long stretches of time and thus enable the population of Bangladesh to adapt slowly. Resources such as social capital, which is one of the main tools for slum dwellers to be able to cope with flooding can be altered over time, and as such the system can be considered overall stable and resilient. However, transboundary water sharing issues during the dry season and other implications resulting from dam structures such as Farakka Barrage complicate a prognosis on how the rapidly growing population will be affected in the 21st century. This is particularly important in connection with previous findings, which suggest that the Greater Dhaka population already experience a significant increase in mortality during droughts. Climate change can thus be seen as an anthropogenic amplification of the socio-hydrological challenges already faced by Bangladesh today.

  12. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. CORNEA

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ecosystems, and human settlements are susceptible to variations in the storage, fluxes, and quality of water and sensitive to climate change. From urban and agricultural water supplies to flood management and aquatic ecosystem protection, global warming is affecting all aspects of water resource management. Rising temperatures, loss of snowpack, escalating size and frequency of flood events, and rising sea levels are just some of the impacts of climate change that have broad implications for the management of water resources. With robust scientific evidence showing that human-induced climate change is occurring, it is critical to understand how water quantity and quality might be affected. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the environmental risks caused by climate anomalies on water resources, to examine the negative impacts of a greenhouse warming on the supply and demand for water and the resulting socio-economic implications.

  13. Public health impacts of climate change in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, H D; Dhimal, B; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L

    2011-04-01

    Climate change is a global issue in this century which has challenged the survival of living creatures affecting the life supporting systems of the earth: atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere. Scientists have reached in a consensus that climate change is happening. The anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases is responsible for global warming and therefore climate change. Climate change may directly or indirectly affect human health through a range of pathways related to temperature and precipitation. The aim of this article is to share knowledge on how climate change can affect public health in Nepal based on scientific evidence from global studies and experience gained locally. In this review attempt has been made to critically analyze the scientific studies as well as policy documents of Nepalese Government and shed light on public health impact of climate change in the context of Nepal. Detailed scientific study is recommended to discern impact of climate change on public health problems in Nepal.

  14. Mapping of Temporal Surface-water Resources Availability and Agricultural Adaptability due to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity in a Hot Semi-arid Region of Maharashtra State, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, A.; Inamdar, A. B.

    2016-12-01

    Major part of Godavari River Basin is intensely drought prone and climate vulnerable in the Western Maharashtra State, India. The economy of the state depends on the agronomic productivity of this region. So, it is necessary to regulate the effects of existing and upcoming hydro-meteorological advances in various strata. This study investigates and maps the surface water resources availability and vegetation, their decadal deviations with multi-temporal LANDSAT images; and finally quantifies the agricultural adaptations. This work involves the utilization of Remote Sensing and GIS with Hydrological modeling. First, climatic trend analysis is carried out with NCEP dataset. Then, multi-temporal LANDSAT images are classified to determine the decadal LULC changes and correlated to the community level hydrological demand. Finally, NDVI, NDWI and SWAT model analysis are accomplished to determine irrigated and non-irrigated cropping area for identifying the agricultural adaptations. The analysis shows that the mean value of annual and monsoon rainfall is significantly decreasing, whereas the mean value of annual and summer temperature is increasing significantly and the winter temperature is decreasing. The analysis of LANDSAT images shows that the surface water availability is highly dependent on climatic conditions. Barren-lands are most dynamic during the study period followed by, vegetation, and water bodies. The spatial extent of barren-lands is increased drastically during the climate vulnerable years replacing the vegetation and surface water bodies. Hence, the barren lands are constantly increasing and the vegetation cover is linearly decreasing, whereas the water extent is changing either way in a random fashion. There appears a positive correlation between surface water and vegetation occurrence; as they are fluctuating in a similar fashion in all the years. The vegetation cover is densely replenished around the dams and natural water bodies which serve as the

  15. Fire, carbon, and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amiro, B.; Flannigan, M.

    2005-01-01

    One million hectares of forest are harvested in Canada annually, with 1 to 8 million hectares destroyed by fire and a further 10 to 25 million hectares consumed by insects. Enhanced disturbances have meant that Canadian forests are becoming carbon sources instead of carbon sinks. Canadian fire statistics from the year 1920 were provided along with a map of large fires between 1980 and 1999. A cycle of combustion losses, decomposition and regeneration of forests was presented, along with a stylized concept of forest carbon life cycles with fire. Direct emissions from forests fires were evaluated. An annual net ecosystem production in Canadian boreal forests and stand age was presented. Projections of areas burned were presented based on weather and fire danger relationships, with statistics suggesting that a 75 to 120 per cent increase is likely to occur by the end of this century. Trend observations show that areas burned are correlated with increasing temperature caused by anthropogenic effects. Prevention, detection, suppression and fuels management were presented as areas that needed improvement in fire management. However, management strategies may only postpone an increase in forest fires. Changes in disturbances such as fire and insects will be a significant early impact of climate change on forests. tabs., figs

  16. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  17. Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin

    2010-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here

  18. Coastal sediment elevation change following anthropogenic mangrove clearing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayden, Heather L.; Granek, Elise F.

    2015-11-01

    Coastal mangrove forests along tropical shorelines serve as an important interface between land and sea. They provide a physical buffer protecting the coastline from erosion and act as sediment "traps" catching terrestrial sediment, thus preventing smothering of subtidal coral reefs. Coastal development that removes mangrove habitat may impact adjacent nearshore coral reefs through sedimentation and nutrient loading. We examined differences in sediment elevation change between patches of open-coast intact and anthropogenically cleared red mangroves (Rhizophora mangle) on the east side of Turneffe Atoll, Belize, to quantify changes following mangrove clearing. Samples were collected over a 24 month period at five study sites, each containing paired intact (+mangrove) and cleared (-mangrove) plots. Five sediment elevation pins were deployed in each plot: behind areas cleared of mangroves (-mangrove) and behind adjacent intact mangroves (+mangrove). Sediment elevation increased at intact mangrove sites (M = +3.83 mm, SE = 0.95) whereas cleared mangrove areas suffered elevation loss (M = -7.30 mm, SE = 3.38). Mangroves inshore of partial or continuous gaps in the adjacent fringing reefs had higher rates of elevation loss (M = -15.05 mm) than mangroves inshore of continuous fringing reefs (M = -1.90 mm). Our findings provide information on potential effects of mangrove clearing and the role of offshore habitat characteristics on coastal sediment trapping and maintenance of sediment elevation by mangroves. With implications for coastline capacity to adjust to sea level rise, these findings are relevant to management of coastal fringing mangrove forests across the Caribbean.

  19. The neurobiology of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-02-01

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  20. The neurobiology of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-01-06

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  1. Market strategies for climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.M.

    2004-01-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still

  2. Climatic and Anthropogenic Influences on Lake-Sediment Records in Western Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinneman, A. L.; Edlund, M. B.; Umbanhower, C. E.; Almendinger, J. E.; Soninkhishig, N.

    2008-12-01

    The Valley of the Great Lakes in western Mongolia is a unique ecosystem comprising a wide variety of terrestrial and aquatic habitats. Little is known about the long-term climate history of the region or the relative impact of climate and land-use on ecosystem development. Recent drought and rising temperatures in Mongolia have made an improved understanding of the regional moisture balance a pressing concern. Records from across arid Central Asia have shown substantial temporal and spatial variability in past correlation between temperature and moisture availability. Many of the available paleoclimate records from Mongolia are limited in temporal resolution and offer little information on recent changes in the precipitation- to-evaporation balance in the region. We have developed a 2000 year diatom-inferred record of salinity from western Mongolia demonstrating a negative correlation between temperature and effective moisture (warm- dry and cool-wet conditions) over this time period, analogous to many records from the nearby Tibetan Plateau. The Tibetan plateau is notable for climate records free from strong anthropogenic influence, a similar scenario might be expected on the western Mongolian steppe with its low population density and nomadic livelihood. However, Mongolian grasslands have seen substantial human impacts in the recent several decades. Since the end of Soviet authority in 1991, traditional nomadic herders have seen large incentives to increase the number of livestock in their household, particularly numbers of cashmere goat. The increasing demand and transitional regulation of these resources may be increasing the nutrient load in Mongolia's aquatic systems and creating a deleterious situation for both wildlife and local herders. Correspondence analysis (CCA) demonstrates that both salinity and total phosphorus concentrations account for unique and significant fractions of the observed variability in diatom communities among the lakes, allowing for

  3. Anthropogenic and climate influences on biogeochemical dynamics and molecular-level speciation of soil sulfur.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Dawit; Lehmann, Johannes; Kinyangi, James; Pell, Alice; Theis, Janice; Riha, Susan; Ngoze, Solomon; Amelung, Wulf; Du Preez, Chris; Machado, Stephen; Ellert, Ben; Janzen, Henry

    2009-06-01

    The soil environment is a primary component of the global biogeochemical sulfur (S) cycle, acting as a source and sink of various S species and mediating oxidation state changes. However, ecological significance of the various S forms and the impacts of human intervention and climate on the amount and structural composition of these compounds are still poorly understood. We investigated the long-term influences of anthropogenically mediated transitions from natural to managed ecosystems on molecular-level speciation, biogeochemical dynamics, and the apparent temperature sensitivity of S moieties in temperate, subtropical, and tropical environments with mean annual temperature (MAT) ranging from 5 degrees C to 21 degrees C, using elemental analysis and X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy. Land-use and land-cover changes led to the depletion of total soil S in all three ecoregions over a period of up to 103 years. The largest decline occurred from tropical forest agroecosystems (67% Kakamega and 76% Nandi, Kenya), compared to losses from temperate (36% at Lethbridge, Canada, and 40% at Pendleton, USA) and subtropical (48% at South Africa) grassland agroecosystems. The total S losses correlated significantly with MAT. Anthropogenic interventions profoundly altered the molecular-level composition and resulted in an apparent shift in oxidation states of organic S from native ecosystems composed primarily of S moieties in intermediate and highly reduced oxidation states toward managed agroecosystems dominated by organic S rich in strongly oxidized functionalities. The most prominent change occurred in thiols and sulfides, the proportion of which decreased by 46% (Lethbridge) and 57% (Pendleton) in temperate agroecosystems, by 46% in subtropical agroecosystems, and by 79% (Nandi) and 81% (Kakamega) in tropical agroecosystems. The proportion of organic S directly linked to O increased by 81%, 168%, 40%, 92%, and 85%, respectively. Among the various

  4. Climate Change and Forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omenda, T.O

    1997-01-01

    The causes for climatic change in the period between 3000 and 1250 BC was different from what present scenario portends. After industrialization, temperatures has arisen by 0.5 degrees centigrade every 100 years since factories started to spew out smoke. Over the last two centuries, the concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by more than 25% from about 275ppm in the 18th Century to more than 350ppm at the present time while the current level is expected to double by the year 2050. The increase in Carbon Dioxide and together with other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will trap the sun's radiation causing the mean global temperatures to rise by between 1 degree and 5 degrees centigrade by 2050. The climatic change affects forestry in many ways for instance, temperatures determines the rate at which enzymes catalyze biochemical reactions while solar radiation provide the energy which drive light reactions in photosynthesis. On the other hand, water which is a component of climate is a universal solvent which enables plants to transport nutrients through the transpirational stream, and similarly transport photosynthates from the leave to all parts of the plants. It is a raw material for photosynthesis and important for maintaining turgidity, which is important for growth

  5. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  6. Climate change effects on buckling strength of steel plate elements.

    OpenAIRE

    Fom, Pam B.

    2017-01-01

    This research is aim at investigating Climate Change effects on buckling strength of steel plate elements. Climate change is the consequence of global warming as a result of the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to both natural and anthropogenic reasons. This can lead to changes in environmental and atmospheric pollution parameters which may affect the deterioration rate of engineering materials and infrastructural systems. A review of the state-of-the art dose-response funct...

  7. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  8. Climate change and child health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seal, Arnab; Vasudevan, Chakrapani

    2011-12-01

    Postindustrial human activity has contributed to rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases causing global warming and climate change. The adverse effects of climate change affect children disproportionately, especially in the developing world. Urgent action is necessary to mitigate the causes and adapt to the negative effects of climate change. Paediatricians have an important role in managing the effects of climate change on children and promoting sustainable development.

  9. Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

  10. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  11. Climate change and the biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin

    2008-01-01

    Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

  12. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come

  13. Mitigation : climate change briefing paper

    OpenAIRE

    Carbon Trust

    2009-01-01

    Climate change mitigation entails finding ways to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. Ways of mitigating climate change include reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and services, increasing efficiency gains, increasing use and development of low-carbon technologies, and reducing non-fossil fuel emissions. Publisher PDF

  14. Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas W. Hertel; Stephanie D. Rosch

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  15. Agriculture and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abelson, P.H.

    1992-01-01

    How will increases in levels of CO 2 and changes in temperature affect food production? A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO 2 but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall? That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO 2 from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO 2 by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops

  16. Population and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Joel E

    2010-06-01

    To review, the four broad dimensions of any complex human problem, including climate change, are the human population, economics, culture, and environment. These dimensions interact with one another in all directions and on many time-scales. From 2010 to 2050, the human population is likely to grow bigger, more slowly, older, and more urban. It is projected that by 2050 more than 2.6 billion people (almost 94% of global urban growth) will be added to the urban population in today's developing countries. That works out to 1.26 million additional urban people in today's developing countries every week from 2010 to 2050. Humans alter the climate by emitting greenhouse gases, by altering planetary albedo, and by altering atmospheric components. Between 1900 and 2000, humans' emissions of carbon into the atmosphere increased fifteenfold, while the numbers of people increased less than fourfold. Population growth alone, with constant rates of emissions per person, could not account for the increase in the carbon emissions to the atmosphere. The world economy grew sixteenfold in the twentieth century, accompanied by enormous increases in the burning of gas, oil, and coal. In the last quarter of the twentieth century, population grew much faster in developing countries than in high-income countries, and, compared with population growth, the growth of carbon emissions to the atmosphere was even faster in developing countries than in high-income countries. The ratio of emissions-to-population growth rates was 2.8 in developing countries compared with 1.6 in high-income countries. Emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are influenced by the sizes and density of settlements, the sizes of households, and the ages of householders. Between 2010 and 2050, these demographic factors are anticipated to change substantially. Therefore demography will play a substantial role in the dynamics of climate changes. Climate changes affect many aspects of the living environment

  17. Equilibrium climate response of the East Asian summer monsoon to forcing of anthropogenic aerosol species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Wang, Qiuyan; Zhang, Hua

    2017-12-01

    We used an online aerosol-climate model to study the equilibrium climate response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to increases in anthropogenic emissions of sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols from 1850 to 2000. Our results show that each of these aerosol species has a different effect on the EASM as a result of changes in the local sea-land thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation. The increased emission of sulfate aerosol leads to a decrease in the thermal contrast between the land and ocean, a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet, and significant northerly wind anomalies at 850 hPa over eastern China and the ambient oceans, markedly dampening the EASM. An increase in organic carbon aerosol results in pronounced surface cooling and the formation of an anomalous anticyclone over the oceans north of 30°N. These effects cause a slight increase in the sea-land thermal contrast and southerly flow anomalies to the west of the anticyclonic center, strengthening the northern EASM. An increase in organic carbon emission decreases the sea-land thermal contrast over southern China, which weakens the southern EASM. The response of the summer 850-hPa winds and rainfall over the East Asian monsoon region to an increase in black carbon emission is generally consistent with the response to an increase in organic carbon. The increase in black carbon emission leads to a strengthening of the northern EASM north of 35°N and a slight weakening of the southern EASM south of 35°N. The simulated response of the EASM to the increase in black carbon emission is unchanged when the emission of black carbon is scaled up by five times its year 2000 levels, although the intensities of the response is enhanced. The increase in sulfate emission primarily weakens the EASM, whereas the increases in black carbon and organic carbon emissions mitigate weakening of the northern EASM.

  18. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change.

    OpenAIRE

    Schiavon, Stefano; Zecchin, Roberto

    2007-01-01

    Politiche, misure e strumenti per contenere le emissioni di CO2 Illustriamo l’ultimo contributo al quarto Rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici votato a maggio 2007 dal terzo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato intergovernativo “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Il Rapporto affronta la problematica delle tendenze delle emissioni dei gas serra e il tema della mitigazione a breve e lungo termine. Presentiamo un’analisi critica delle proposte del documento.

  19. Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols in the World's Megacities and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Singh, R.; El-Askary, H.; Qu, J.

    2005-12-01

    The world's megacities are the sites of production of a variety of aerosols and are themselves affected by natural and human-induced aerosols. In particular, sources of aerosols impacting cities include: industrial and automobile emission; sand and dust storms from, e.g., the Sahara and Gobi Deserts; as well as fire-induced aerosols. Improving the ability of various stakeholder organizations to respond effectively to high concentrations of aerosols, with special emphasis on mineral dust from dust storms; smoke from controlled burns, wild fires and agricultural burning; and anthropogenic aerosols, would be an important goal not just to understand climate forcings but also to be able to better respond to the increasing amounts of aerosols at global and regional levels. Cities and surrounding areas are affected without good estimates of the current and future conditions of the aerosols and their impact on regional and global climate. Remotely sensed (RS) NASA, NOAA and international platform data can be used to characterize the properties of aerosol clouds and special hazard events such as sand and dust storms (SDS). Aerosol analysis and prediction-model capabilities from which stakeholders can choose the tools that best match their needs and technological expertise are important. Scientists validating mesoscale and aerosol-transport models, aerosol retrievals from satellite measurements are indispensable for robust climate predictions. Here we give two examples of generic SDS cases and urban pollution and their possible impact on climate: The Sahara desert is a major source of dust aerosols dust transport is an important climatic process. The aerosols in the form of dust particles reflect the incoming solar radiation to space, thereby reducing the amount of radiation available to the ground, known as `direct' radiative forcing of aerosols. The aerosols also change the cloud albedo and microphysical properties of clouds, known as `indirect' radiative forcing of

  20. Oceanic implications for climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNeil, Ben I.

    2006-01-01

    Under the United Nations convention on the law of the sea (1982), each participating country maintains exclusive economic and environmental rights within the oceanic region extending 200 nm from its territorial sea, known as the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Although the ocean within each EEZ is undoubtedly an anthropogenic CO 2 sink, it has been over-looked within international climate policy. In this paper I use an area-weighted scaling argument to show that the inclusion of the EEZ CO 2 sink within national carbon accounts would have significant implications in tracking national greenhouse commitments to any future climate change policy initiative. The advantages and disadvantages for inclusion of the EEZ CO 2 sink into global climate change policy are also explored. The most compelling argument for including the EEZ CO 2 sink is that it would enhance the equity and resources among coastal nations to combat and adapt against future climate change that will inherently impact coastal nations more so than land locked nations. If included, the funds raised could be used for either monitoring or adaptive coastal infrastructure among the most vulnerable nations. On the other hand, the EEZ anthropogenic CO 2 sink cannot be directly controlled by human activities and could be used as a disincentive for some developed nations to reduce fossil-fuel related greenhouse gas emissions. This may therefore dampen efforts to ultimately reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. In consideration of these arguments it is therefore suggested that an 'EEZ clause' be added to Kyoto and any future international climate policy that explicitly excludes its use within national carbon accounts under these international climate frameworks

  1. Energy and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadena, Angela Ines

    2000-01-01

    Human intervention in the carbon cycle has become a relevant concern in recent times. Global warming is a phenomenon due to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG-s) carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons, believed to be irreversible. CO 2 is the most important GHG its contribution to the radioactive forcing of climate is estimated in about 70%. Changes in the global concentration of these gases depend on the level of emissions as a by-product of economic activities, the natural assimilative capacity of the global ecosystem, and the abatement activities. The paper include the Colombian situation

  2. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvo Redondo, A.; Rodriguez Eustaquio, A.; Sanchez y Llorente, J.M.; Luis y Hernandez, S.; Panero Santos, C.; Gomez Cubero, J.A.; Arias-Camison Hernandez, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  3. Climate Change and National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. a. REPORT Climate Change and National...Security 14. ABSTRACT 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: Does climate change constitute a national security threat to the United States? What is climate ...resources for an in-depth discussion on national security and climate change . 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

  4. Interdisciplinarity, Climate, and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    Interdisciplinarity has become synonymous with all things progressive about research and education. This is so not simply because of a philosophical belief in the heterogeneity of knowledge but because of the scientific and social complexities of problems of major concern. The increased demand for improved climate knowledge and information has increased pressure to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence, is well-documented. The application of useful climate data, information and knowledge requires multiple networks and information services infrastructure that support planning and implementation. As widely quoted, Pasteur's quadrant is a label given to a class of scientific research methodologies that seeks fundamental understanding of scientific problems and, simultaneously, to benefit society-what Stokes called "use-inspired research". Innovation, in this context, has been defined as "the process by which individuals and organizations generate new ideas and put them into practice". A growing number of research institutes and programs have begun developing a cadre of professionals focused on integrating basic and applied research in areas such as climate risk assessment and adaptation. There are now several examples of where researchers and teams have crafted examples that include affected communities. In this presentation we will outline the lessons from several efforts including the PACE program, the RISAs, NIDIS, the Climate Services Information System and other interdisciplinary service-oriented efforts in which the author has been involved. Some early lessons include the need to: Recognize that key concerns of social innovation go beyond the projections of climate and other global changes to embrace multiple methods Continue to train scientists of all stripes of disciplinary norms, but higher education should also prepare students who plan to seek careers outside of academia by increasing flexibility in graduate training programs

  5. Our knowledge on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turkenburg, W.C.; Van Wijk, A.J.M.

    1991-01-01

    A workshop was organised to evaluate and discuss the report 'Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (1990)' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thirty prominent Dutch experts in the field attended the workshop. The introductions and discussions held on our knowledge of climatic change as a result of the growth of the greenhouse effect caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human actions are presented. It is concluded that the IPCC-report shows in a clear and balanced way the certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge of climate change. There is a large chance that the earth's climate will change considerably, if the policy remains unamended. 15 figs., 2 apps

  6. Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique

    OpenAIRE

    Räisänen, J.; Ruokolainen, L.

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change are derived by using a multimodel ensemble of climate change simulations and a simple resampling technique that increases the number of realizations for the possible combination of anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability. The technique is based on the assumption that the probability distribution of local climate changes is only a function of the all-model mean global average warming. Although this is unlikely to be exac...

  7. Climate change research - Danish contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joergensen, A.M.K.; Fenger, J.; Halsnaes, K.

    2001-01-01

    The book describes a series of Danish scientific and technical studies. They broadly reflect the fields and disciplines embraced by assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but with an emphasis on natural sciences (i.e. climate investigations and impact studies). After the general introduction, that presents the issue and gives a summary of the content of the book, the chapters are organised in four parts: 1. The Climate System and Climate Variations. 2. Climate Change Scenarios. 3. Impacts of Climate Change. 4. Policy Aspects. Each chapter is indexed separately. (LN)

  8. Socioeconomic impacts of climate change on rural communities in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankaj Lal; Janaki Alavalapati; D Evan Mercer

    2011-01-01

    Climate change refers to any distinct change in measures of climate such as temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind patterns lasting for decades or longer (USEPA 2009). In the last decade, there has been a clear consensus among scientists that the world is experiencing a rapid global climate change, much of it attributable to anthropogenic activities. The extent of...

  9. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  10. Climate change adaptation of the built environment – an examination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    phenomena. This is why the term 'environmental changes' might be more accurate than climate change. ‘Environmental changes’ suggests that climate changes ought to be understood as extensive environmental changes, with an impact on the built environment. Following this, it is no longer sufficient only...... to assess for example a building, and anthropogenic impacts on the environment, also the impact of the environment on installations, and on the human activities must be included in the analysis and assessments. Based on observations and investigations into climate change adaptation in DK and abroad...

  11. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  12. Climate change research in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawson, K.

    1994-01-01

    The current consensus on climatic change in Canada is briefly summarized, noting the results of modelling of the effects of a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , the nonuniformity of climate change across the country, the uncertainties in local responses to change, and the general agreement that 2-4 degrees of warming will occur for each doubling of CO 2 . Canadian government response includes programs aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the scientific understanding of climate change and in the socio-economic response to such change. Canadian climate change programs include participation in large-scale experiments on such topics as heat transport in the ocean, and sources and sinks of greenhouse gases; development of next-generation climate models; studying the social and economic effects of climate change in the Great Lakes Basin and Mackenzie River Basin; investigation of paleoclimates; and analysis of climate data for long-term trends

  13. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2014-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  14. Climate change-related migration and infectious disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Celia

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change will have significant impacts on both human migration and population health, including infectious disease. It will amplify and alter migration pathways, and will contribute to the changing ecology and transmission dynamics of infectious disease. However there has been limited consideration of the intersections between migration and health in the context of a changing climate. This article argues that climate-change related migration - in conjunction with other drivers of migration - will contribute to changing profiles of infectious disease. It considers infectious disease risks for different climate-related migration pathways, including: forced displacement, slow-onset migration particularly to urban-poor areas, planned resettlement, and labor migration associated with climate change adaptation initiatives. Migration can reduce vulnerability to climate change, but it is critical to better understand and respond to health impacts - including infectious diseases - for migrant populations and host communities.

  15. Armillaria Pathogenesis under Climate Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Kubiak

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes influencing forest ecosystems include increased air temperatures and CO2 concentrations as well as droughts and decreased water availability. These changes in turn effect changes in species composition of both host plants and pathogens. In the case of Armillaria, climate changes cause an increase in the activity of individual species and modify the growth of rhizomorphs, increasing the susceptibility of trees. The relationship between climate changes and the biotic elements of Armillaria disease are discussed in overview.

  16. Financing for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Richard N.

    2012-01-01

    This paper argues that the 2009 pledge of $100 billion in 2020 by rich countries for mitigation and adaptation should not be used for mitigation by commercial firms in developing countries, since that would artificially create competitive advantage for such firms and provoke protectionist reactions in the rich countries where firms must bear the costs of mitigation, thereby undermining the world trading system. The costs of heating the earth's surface should be borne by all emitters, just as the price of copper and other scarce resources is paid by all users, rich or poor. That will still leave scope for rich country help in adaptation to climate change and in bringing to fruition new technologies to reduce emissions. - Highlights: ► Slowing climate change significantly cannot occur without the participation of the largest emitters among developing countries. ► The cost of GHG mitigation must be the same for all competing firms, wherever they are located. ► The world trading system is seriously at risk in the face of a poorly designed system for global mitigation of greenhouse gases. ► No significantly emitting firm, anywhere, public or private, should be protected from the incentive to reduce its emissions. ► Higher prices for fossil fuels need not reduce national growth rates in consuming countries.

  17. Salinity changes relative to the response to anthropogenic forcing and internal variability in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinogradova, Nadya; Buckley, Martha

    2017-04-01

    Over the past few decades, surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic have experienced substantial fluctuations, including periods of rapid cooling and freshening alternating with the periods of enhanced warming, salinification, and decreased circulation of the gyre. Since these waters feed the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, such changes have the potential to impact the global ocean circulation and future climate states. A number of potential causes for the observed changes have been suggested, including those related to the strength of the ocean circulation and heat transports, as well as other factors, such as anthropogenic aerosol forcing or changes in surface fluxes. Here we assess how the observed warming/salinification events fit into the long-term picture, focusing on variations in upper-ocean salinity. Salinification of the subpolar North Atlantic may seem counter-intuitive to the reported long-term increase in freshwater supply to the region from river discharge and ice melting, sparking debates about whether the freshening of the subpolar gyre has ceased, and whether the recent salinification, if continued, will be able to forestall the projected slowdown of the overturning circulation. Using a suite of in situ salinity observations spanning the last 60 years, modern satellite salinity observations from Aquarius and SMOS missions, and multi-decadal realizations from global climate models, we estimate the likelihood of such salinity changes in the context of the historical record, contemporary estimates, and future projections. Results are discussed in terms of the probability of occurrence of a decade-long salinification in the presence of the background freshening in response to anthropogenic forcing. In particular, computed probabilities suggest that such "unusual" salinification events are plausible under the strong influence of internal, decadal-to-interdecadal variability.

  18. Climate Change. Solutions for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, T.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Karoly, D.; Lowe, I.; McMichael, T.; Mitchell, C.; Pearman, G.; Scaife, P.; Reynolds, A. (eds.)

    2004-06-01

    The Australian Climate Group was convened in late 2003 by WWF Australia and the Insurance Australia Group (IAG) in response to the increasing need for action on climate change in Australia. This group proposes a set of solutions to lower the risk that climate change will reach a dangerous level.

  19. Politics of climate change belief

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

  20. Uncertainty and climate change policy

    OpenAIRE

    Quiggin, John

    2008-01-01

    The paper consists of a summary of the main sources of uncertainty about climate change, and a discussion of the major implications for economic analysis and the formulation of climate policy. Uncertainty typically implies that the optimal policy is more risk-averse than otherwise, and therefore enhances the case for action to mitigate climate change.

  1. Maritime antarctic lakes as sentinels of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Camacho, A.; Rochera, C.; Villaescusa, J. A.; Velázquez, D.; Toro, M.; Rico, E.; Fernández-Valiente, E.; Justel, Ana; Bañón García, Manuel; Quesada, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    Remote lakes, such as lakes from the Maritime Antarctica, can be used as sentinels of climate change, because they are mostly free of direct anthropogenic pressures, and they experience climate change as a main stressor capable of modifying the ecosystem structure and function. In this paper, the content of a lecture that has been presented at the First Conference of Lake Sustainability, which has been centred in our studies on lakes from Byers Peninsula (Maritime Antarctic...

  2. Climate Change and Mental Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombley, Janna; Chalupka, Stephanie; Anderko, Laura

    2017-04-01

    : Climate change is an enormous challenge for our communities, our country, and our world. Recently much attention has been paid to the physical impacts of climate change, including extreme heat events, droughts, extreme storms, and rising sea levels. However, much less attention has been paid to the psychological impacts. This article examines the likely psychological impacts of climate change, including anxiety, stress, and depression; increases in violence and aggression; and loss of community identity. Nurses can play a vital role in local and regional climate strategies by preparing their patients, health care facilities, and communities to effectively address the anticipated mental health impacts of climate change.

  3. Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Sammy L.

    2010-01-01

    Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

  4. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial......) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...

  5. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  6. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  7. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertelsmeier, C.

    2011-01-01

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  8. Research on Climate Change and Its Impacts Needs Freedom of Research

    OpenAIRE

    Nicole Mölders

    2013-01-01

    Climate change captured my interest as a teenager when, at the dining table, my dad talked about potential anthropogenic climate changes. He brought up subjects such as “climate could change if the Siberian Rivers were to be deviated to the South for irrigation of the (semi) arid areas of the former Soviet Union”. Other subjects were afforestation in the Sahel to enhance precipitation recycling, deforestation in the Tropics that could have worldwide impacts on climate, the local climate impac...

  9. Northern peatlands in global climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

  10. Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B

    2008-06-13

    The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.

  11. International aspects of climate change: The intergovernmental panel on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydges, T.; Fenech, A.

    1990-01-01

    The impact of various international conferences concerning global climate change on international opinions and attitudes is discussed. A number of conferences over the past two decades have drawn attention to the large socio-economic consequences of climate change. There has been increasing attention given to the likely affect of anthropogenically derived greenhouse gases on the global climate. Some early uncertainty over the likely long term changes in global temperature have been replaced by a scientific consensus that global temperatures are increasing and will continue to do so into the next century. Public awareness of the possibility of climate change and severe socio-economic consequences has been increasing and was given a major impetus by the Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere. An estimate of the possible time to solution of the climate change issue is given as 1988-2005, a span of 17 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has focused work into three working groups examining science, impacts and response strategies. 28 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

  12. A dissenting view on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linden, H.R.

    1993-01-01

    Global warming alarmists are vastly overstating the risks of climate change, often to further other agendas. The science of global warming simply does not support their claims of impending doom - as policy makers would be wise to note. There is scientific consensus on the existence of a benign natural greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth habitable by raising its average surface temperature by about 33 degrees C. Global warming alarmists, however, have falsely claimed that this consensus also extends to the belief that human activity is significantly enhancing this effect. This is simply untrue. Based on a wealth of new information, there is now strong and rapidly growing scientific dissent on the inevitability of catastrophic and even mildly detrimental anthropogenic climate change. This casts serious doubts on the need for binding international agreements to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, or to limit conversion of tropical forests to agricultural uses in areas where increased food supply is a critical issue

  13. Changes of Bulgarian Coastal Dune Landscape under Anthropogenic Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazov, A.; Young, R.; Stancheva, M.; Stanchev, H.

    2012-04-01

    At one time large sand dune formations were widely distributed along the Bulgarian coast. However, due to increased urbanization in the coastal zone, the areas of total dune landscape has been constantly reduced. Dunes presently comprise only 10% of the entire 412 km long coastline of Bulgaria: they embrace a total length of 38.57 km and a total area of 8.78 km2 Important tasks in dune protection are identification of landscape changes for a certain period of time and accurate delineation of sand dune areas. The present research traces sand dune changes along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast over a 27 year period (1983-2010). This period includes also the time of expanded tourist boom and overbuilding of the coastal zone, and respectively presents the largest dune changes and reductions. Based on the landscape change analyst in GIS environment the study also aims to explore the importance of different natural and human factors in driving the observed dune alterations and destruction. To detect and assess dune changes during the last 3 decades, we used data for sand dunes derived from several sources at different time periods in order to compare changes in shoreline positions, dune contours and areas: i) Topographic maps in 1:5,000 scale from 1983; ii) Modern Very High Resolution orthophotographs from 2006 and 2010; iii) QuickBird Very High Resolution satellite images from 2009; iv) Statistical information for population and tourist infrastructure is also used to consider the influence of human pressure and hotel developments on the dune dynamics. In addition, for more detailed description and visualization of main dune types, digital photos have been taken at many parts of the Bulgarian coast. The study was performed in GIS environment. Based on the results obtained the dunes along the Bulgarian coast were divided into three main groups with relation to the general factors responsible for their alterations: i) Dunes that have decreased in result of shoreline retreat

  14. A climate of change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueres Olsen, J.M.; Figueres, C.

    2000-01-01

    Global climate change has ceased to be strictly an environmental threat, lurking in the future. Its potential impacts could well make it the greatest social and economic challenge that humanity will have to face in the coming century. The first is competition. An energy revolution is now in the making, with advanced new technologies such as fuel cells, photovoltaics, wind turbines and flywheels entering the market. The reason why we moved beyond the horse and buggy a hundred years ago was not because we ran out of hay. Similarly, there is no doubt that the planet still has impressive oil reserves. However, as was the case when the oil era first emerged, those industries that successfully incorporate the new technologies will be well positioned to succeed economically in the 21 st century

  15. Forest and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    After having recalled the challenges the French forest has to face, and a brief overview of the status of forests in the world, this report proposes an overview of actions which are implemented to strengthen the carbon sequestration role of forests, at the international level and in France. It discusses the distribution of carbon, the forest carbon stocks (in the world, Europe and France), the actions against climate change, the costs and financing of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the forest sector. It comments the status of international negotiations and how forests are taken into account. It presents the French forest and wood sector (characteristics of the forest in metropolitan France and overseas, wood as material and as energy). It recalls the commitment of the Grenelle de l'Environnement, and indicates the current forest studies

  16. Ethics and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abel, O.; Bard, E.; Berger, A.; Besnier, J.M.; Guesnerie, R.; Serres, M.

    2009-01-01

    Faced with climate change what is the position of scientists, of economists and of political decision makers? And the one of philosophers, of moralists, and of theologians? Finally, what is the position of anyone of us? This question of ethical aspect has been rarely tackled in France so far. Prepared after a colloquium held in Paris in 2009, this book combines scientifical, philosophical, moral and theological perspectives accessible to anyone. It stresses on the novelty and urgency of the ethical thought concerning a question having a strong impact of the humanity future, and more particularly on the future of the most vulnerable of us. If the human being is capable to mobilize himself collectively for a universal cause, he can stay on individualistic positions as well, in particular when he has to care of the fate of the generations to come. This book is a philosophical-scientifical thought which aims at bringing together four main views on this issue. (J.S.)

  17. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  18. Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2012-08-15

    Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

  19. Climate change and sustainable food production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Pete; Gregory, Peter J

    2013-02-01

    One of the greatest challenges we face in the twenty-first century is to sustainably feed nine to ten billion people by 2050 while at the same time reducing environmental impact (e.g. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity loss, land use change and loss of ecosystem services). To this end, food security must be delivered. According to the United Nations definition, 'food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life'. At the same time as delivering food security, we must also reduce the environmental impact of food production. Future climate change will make an impact upon food production. On the other hand, agriculture contributes up to about 30% of the anthropogenic GHG emissions that drive climate change. The aim of this review is to outline some of the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture, the mitigation measures available within agriculture to reduce GHG emissions and outlines the very significant challenge of feeding nine to ten billion people sustainably under a future climate, with reduced emissions of GHG. Each challenge is in itself enormous, requiring solutions that co-deliver on all aspects. We conclude that the status quo is not an option, and tinkering with the current production systems is unlikely to deliver the food and ecosystems services we need in the future; radical changes in production and consumption are likely to be required over the coming decades.

  20. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-11-01

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  1. Our climate change actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-05-01

    One of the main tools utilized by the Canadian government to encourage the private sector and other organizations to monitor, report and implement measures for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is the Climate Change Voluntary Challenge and Registry (VCR), a program supported by several industry leaders in the oil and gas sector, such as the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association (CEPA). Financial resources and human efforts have expanded for the past seven years (since 1995) by the transmission pipeline companies with the aim of continuously reducing the emissions of greenhouse gas which have an impact on climate change. The successes achieved by member companies of CEPA are described in this document, resulting in limitations to the growth of greenhouse gas emissions by players in the sector. The three types of greenhouse gas emissions produced by transmission pipelines, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and the process by which they are produced, are explained. The high growth in emissions by transmission pipelines is due to the higher amounts of energy required to move increasing volumes of natural gas. Some of the successes achieved by companies in direct emissions in the sector are: advances in inventory accuracy, greenhouse gas audits, measuring fugitive emissions, reducing emissions from fossil fuel combustion, state-of-the-art technology, energy efficiency, computer modelling, improving operational efficiency and replacing equipment. In indirect emissions, the measures implemented include efficiency of electricity use and helping consumers save. Using waste heat to create electricity, and offsets through cogeneration are measures that contribute to the successes in innovation

  2. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  3. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  4. Understanding the Impact of Anthropogenic and Environmental Changes on Dengue Fever Cases in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Serman, E. A.; Couret, J.; Puggioni, G.; Ginsberg, H. S.

    2016-12-01

    Worldwide, there are an estimated 50-100 million cases of dengue fever each year, roughly 30 times the number of cases as 50 years ago. Dengue was introduced to Puerto Rico (PR) in 1963 and it has experienced epidemic activity ever since. There have been 4 large epidemics since 1990, the most recent in 2010 where almost 27,000 cases were reported. Vaccine development remains in the testing stages, and years away from mass distribution. Effective control thus depends on our understanding of the complex relationships between environmental and anthropogenic factors, mosquito vector ecology, and disease epidemiology. Dengue virus is primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which also carry the Zika virus, and humans in urban environments are their preferred hosts. The purpose of our analysis is to identify trends between anthropogenic and environmental changes and dengue fever cases in PR over the past 15 years. Data on housing and population density, percent impervious surface, and percent tree canopy at the municipality level were procured from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (MLRC) project, respectively. Land cover data from the National Land Cover Database, created by USGS and NOAA, as well as environmental data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), were also used. Smaller land cover and green space analysis studies have been performed for PR, but this is the first study to consider the island as a whole, and in six distinct regions, with regards to increases in dengue fever cases. The results from this study can be used to understand the effects of urbanization and climate change on vector-borne disease transmission in PR and to project the impact of growing sub-urban and urban areas on dengue cases in coming years. Our results could also be used to assess Dengue and Zika transmission in growing megacites of the world, where urban slums provide a favorable habitat for Ae. aegypti and foster

  5. Climate change, animal species, and habitats: Adaptation and issues (Chapter 5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah M. Finch; D. Max Smith; Olivia LeDee; Jean-Luc E. Cartron; Mark A. Rumble

    2012-01-01

    Because the rate of anthropogenic climate change exceeds the adaptive capacity of many animal and plant species, the scientific community anticipates negative consequences for ecosystems. Changes in climate have expanded, contracted, or shifted the climate niches of many species, often resulting in shifting geographic ranges. In the Great Basin, for example, projected...

  6. A public health approach to the impact of climate change on health ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Anthropogenic climate change and anticipated adverse effects on human health as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are taken as givens. A conceptual model for thinking about the spectrum of climate-related health risks ranging from distal and infrastructural to proximal and behavioural ...

  7. Can phenological shifts compensate for adverse effects of climate change on butterfly metapopulation viability?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cormont, A.; Jochem, R.; Malinowska, A.H.; Verboom, J.; Wallis de Vries, M.F.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2012-01-01

    The interaction between climate change and habitat fragmentation has been presented as a deadly anthropogenic cocktail. We cannot stop climate change, but it is within our circle of influence as ecologists to suggest landscape adaptation. Detailed population models that take into account climate

  8. Importance of anthropogenic climate impact, sampling error and urban development in sewer system design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egger, C; Maurer, M

    2015-04-15

    Urban drainage design relying on observed precipitation series neglects the uncertainties associated with current and indeed future climate variability. Urban drainage design is further affected by the large stochastic variability of precipitation extremes and sampling errors arising from the short observation periods of extreme precipitation. Stochastic downscaling addresses anthropogenic climate impact by allowing relevant precipitation characteristics to be derived from local observations and an ensemble of climate models. This multi-climate model approach seeks to reflect the uncertainties in the data due to structural errors of the climate models. An ensemble of outcomes from stochastic downscaling allows for addressing the sampling uncertainty. These uncertainties are clearly reflected in the precipitation-runoff predictions of three urban drainage systems. They were mostly due to the sampling uncertainty. The contribution of climate model uncertainty was found to be of minor importance. Under the applied greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B) and within the period 2036-2065, the potential for urban flooding in our Swiss case study is slightly reduced on average compared to the reference period 1981-2010. Scenario planning was applied to consider urban development associated with future socio-economic factors affecting urban drainage. The impact of scenario uncertainty was to a large extent found to be case-specific, thus emphasizing the need for scenario planning in every individual case. The results represent a valuable basis for discussions of new drainage design standards aiming specifically to include considerations of uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Climate Change Communication in Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Ryghaug, Marianne; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe

    2016-01-01

    Climate change research, activities, and initiatives in Norway started relatively late, by international comparison. From the beginnings in the early 2000s, research has mainly followed two paths: First, media studies, typically focusing on traditional newspaper representations of climate change and the surrounding debate, and second, research on public perceptions of climate change. Initially, the research field was dominated by media studies and science and technology studies (STS). As clim...

  10. Military Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    of Defense United States of America Environment, Energy Security and Sustainability Symposium (May 9-12, 2011) Military Adaptation to Climate Change ...2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Military Adaptation to Climate Change 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER... climate change . …” Remarks at the Halifax International Security Forum, Halifax, Nova Scotia Nov 2009 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review For the first

  11. Urban growth and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.

    2011-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2030, the share of the world's population that lives in cities is predicted to grow from 30% to 60%. This urbanization has consequences for the likelihood of climate change and for the social costs that climate change will impose on the world's quality of life. This paper examines how urbanization affects greenhouse gas production, and it studies how urbanites in the developed and developing world will adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.

  12. Climate change, environment and development

    OpenAIRE

    Okereke, Chukwumerije; Massaquoi, Abu-Bakar S.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change, a quintessential environmental problem, is generally recognised as the most important development challenge in the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). In addition to acknowledging its many significant direct consequences, climate change is increasingly used to frame discussions on other important global challenges, such as health, energy and food security. This chapter provides understanding of the intricate and complex relationship between climate change, environment and development.

  13. Navigating SA's climate change legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickey, Suzanne

    2006-01-01

    It is proposed that there should be a legislation to address climate change and Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Bill. South Australian Government Greenhouse Strategy and climate change legislation in light of the far-reaching implications this legislation could have on clients, who face the impacts of climate change in the business and natural environment. It is a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia by 2050 to 60 per cent of 1990 levels

  14. Global change of the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moharam-nejad, Naser.

    1995-01-01

    Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

  15. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of

  16. Floods in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

  17. Global climate change and rangelands

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    While efforts to minimise climate change are vital, some degree of change is already inevitable. The key questions for rangelands are no longer whether climate change will occur, but how to adapt to it, and if possible, how to mitigate its negative impacts. The presentations in this session will move beyond the prediction of ...

  18. Long term, non-anthropogenic groundwater storage changes simulated by a global land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, B.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is crucial for meeting agricultural, industrial and municipal water needs, especially in arid, semi-arid and drought impacted regions. Yet, knowledge on groundwater response to climate variability is not well understood due to lack of systematic and continuous in situ measurements. In this study, we investigate global non-anthropogenic groundwater storage variations with a land surface model driven by a 67-year (1948-204) meteorological forcing data set. Model estimates were evaluated using in situ groundwater data from the central and northeastern U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and found to be reasonable. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed to examine modes of variability of groundwater storage and their relationship with atmospheric effects such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. The result shows that the leading mode in global groundwater storage reflects the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Consistent with the EOF analysis, global total groundwater storage reflected the low frequency variability of ENSO and decreased significantly over 1948-2014 while global ET and precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends. This study suggests that while precipitation and ET are the primary drivers of climate related groundwater variability, changes in other forcing fields than precipitation and temperature are also important because of their influence on ET. We discuss the need to improve model physics and to continuously validate model estimates and forcing data for future studies.

  19. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

  20. Climate change and moral judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markowitz, Ezra M.; Shariff, Azim F.

    2012-04-01

    Converging evidence from the behavioural and brain sciences suggests that the human moral judgement system is not well equipped to identify climate change -- a complex, large-scale and unintentionally caused phenomenon -- as an important moral imperative. As climate change fails to generate strong moral intuitions, it does not motivate an urgent need for action in the way that other moral imperatives do. We review six reasons why climate change poses significant challenges to our moral judgement system and describe six strategies that communicators might use to confront these challenges. Enhancing moral intuitions about climate change may motivate greater support for ameliorative actions and policies.

  1. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  2. Analysis of climate and anthropogenic impacts on runoff in the Lower Pra River Basin of Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awotwi, Alfred; Anornu, Geophrey Kwame; Quaye-Ballard, Jonathan; Annor, Thompson; Forkuo, Eric Kwabena

    2017-12-01

    The Lower Pra River Basin (LPRB), located in the forest zone of southern Ghana has experienced changes due to variability in precipitation and diverse anthropogenic activities. Therefore, to maintain the functions of the ecosystem for water resources management, planning and sustainable development, it is important to differentiate the impacts of precipitation variability and anthropogenic activities on stream flow changes. We investigated the variability in runoff and quantified the contributions of precipitation and anthropogenic activities on runoff at the LPRB. Analysis of the precipitation-runoff for the period 1970-2010 revealed breakpoints in 1986, 2000, 2004 and 2010 in the LPRB. The periods influenced by anthropogenic activities were categorized into three periods 1987-2000, 2001-2004 and 2005-2010, revealing a decrease in runoff during 1987-2000 and an increase in runoff during 2001-2004 and 2005-2010. Assessment of monthly, seasonal and annual runoff depicted a significant increasing trend in the runoff time series during the dry season. Generally, runoff increased at a rate of 9.98 × 10 7 m 3 yr -1 , with precipitation variability and human activities contributing 17.4% and 82.3% respectively. The dominant small scale alluvial gold mining activity significantly contributes to the net runoff variability in LPRB.

  3. The Science of Abrupt Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.

    2002-12-01

    The issue of abrupt climate change has been highlighted by a recent National Academy of Sciences (NRC) study as one of the most troubling potential aspects of future global climate change. The science of abrupt climate change originated in the discovery and study of huge climatic shifts during the last glacial period, particularly in and around the North Atlantic. We now know that ocean thermohaline circulation and circum-North Atlantic climate can change in hard-to-anticipate non-linear ways, and that this type of threat is still very real for the future. At the same time, attention is increasingly being focused on other, equally serious, types of potential "warm climate" abrupt climate change. Worldwide, there is abundant paleoenvironmental evidence for decades-long "megadroughts" that, for example, seemingly occurred on average once or twice a millennium in North America. Dramatic shifts in El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability have also occurred in the past, and could be linked to the occurrence of past megadroughts. Evidence also exists that supports the assertion that the frequency of major floods, and/or landfalls by the largest tropical storms, can change significantly and abruptly. However, as with abrupt shifts in ENSO or drought frequency/duration, we still have only an imperfect observational record, and worse, little proven basis for prediction. This is one reason why abrupt change poses a significant threat to technologically-advanced, as well as developing countries. Major abrupt sea level rise is also a major threat, but again, the paleoclimate record indicates that our understanding of processes related to ice cap melting are not as good as we would like. Given that abrupt climatic changes could occur even in the absence of significant anthropogenic climate change, society should act soon to reduce vulnerabilities. However, the most troubling aspect of the issue is that global warming will likely act to increase the probability of

  4. Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent

    2017-07-01

    Three quasi-equilibrium simulations using constant greenhouse gas forcing corresponding to years 2000, 2015 and 2030 have been performed with the global coupled model EC-Earth in order to analyze the Arctic climate and interactions with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming. The model simulations indicate an accelerated warming and ice extent reduction in the Arctic between the year-2030 and year-2015 simulations compared to the change between the year-2015 and year-2000 simulations. Both Arctic warming and sea ice reduction are closely linked to the increase of ocean heat transport into the Arctic, particularly through the Barents Sea Opening. Decadal variations of Arctic sea ice extent and ice volume are of the same order of magnitude as the observed ice extent reductions in the last 30 years and are dominated by the variability of the ocean heat transports through the Barents Sea Opening and the Bering Strait. Despite a general warming of mid and high northern latitudes, a substantial cooling is found in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic under year-2015 and year-2030 conditions. This cooling is related to a strong reduction in the AMOC, itself due to reduced deep water formation in the Labrador Sea. The observed trend towards a more negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed linkage between autumn Arctic ice variations and NAO are reproduced in our model simulations for selected 30-year periods but are not robust over longer time periods. This indicates that the observed linkages between ice and NAO might not be robust in reality either, and that the observational time period is still too short to reliably separate the trend from the natural variability.

  5. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  6. Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Fangxing; Dong, Buwen; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan

    2018-02-01

    Since the mid-1990s precipitation trends over eastern China display a dipole pattern, characterized by positive anomalies in the south and negative anomalies in the north, named as the Southern-Flood-Northern-Drought (SFND) pattern. This work investigates the drivers of decadal changes of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the dynamical mechanisms involved, by using a coupled climate model (specifically an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model) forced by changes in (1) anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), (2) anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and (3) the combined effects of both GHG and AA (All Forcing) between two periods across the mid-1990s. The model experiment forced by changes in All Forcing shows a dipole pattern of response in precipitation over China that is similar to the observed SFND pattern across the mid-1990s, which suggests that anthropogenic forcing changes played an important role in the observed decadal changes. Furthermore, the experiments with separate forcings indicate that GHG and AA forcing dominate different parts of the SFND pattern. In particular, changes in GHG increase precipitation over southern China, whilst changes in AA dominate in the drought conditions over northern China. Increases in GHG cause increased moisture transport convergence over eastern China, which leads to increased precipitation. The AA forcing changes weaken the EASM, which lead to divergent wind anomalies over northern China and reduced precipitation.

  7. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought...... or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  8. Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acácio, Vanda; Dias, Filipe S; Catry, Filipe X; Rocha, Marta; Moreira, Francisco

    2017-03-01

    The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species-specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long-term (1966-2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the

  9. Climate Change, Politics and Religion: Australian Churchgoers’ Beliefs about Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam Pepper

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A growing literature has sought to understand the relationships between religion, politics and views about climate change and climate change policy in the United States. However, little comparative research has been conducted in other countries. This study draws on data from the 2011 Australian National Church Life Survey to examine the beliefs of Australian churchgoers from some 20 denominations about climate change—whether or not it is real and whether it is caused by humans—and political factors that explain variation in these beliefs. Pentecostals, Baptist and Churches of Christ churchgoers, and people from the smallest Protestant denominations were less likely than other churchgoers to believe in anthropogenic climate change, and voting and hierarchical and individualistic views about society predicted beliefs. There was some evidence that these views function differently in relation to climate change beliefs depending on churchgoers’ degree of opposition to gay rights. These findings are of interest not only for the sake of international comparisons, but also in a context where Australia plays a role in international climate change politics that is disproportionate to its small population.

  10. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  11. 1-km Global Anthropogenic Heat Flux Database for Urban Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Y.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

    2016-12-01

    into climate models will provide a more realistic representation of urban atmospheric environment, leading to a deeper understanding of urban climate change. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan

  12. Fluvial response to climate variations and anthropogenic perturbations for the Ebro River, Spain in the last 4,000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Fei; Kettner, Albert J; Ashton, Andrew; Giosan, Liviu; Ibáñez, Carles; Kaplan, Jed O

    2014-03-01

    Fluvial sediment discharge can vary in response to climate changes and human activities, which in return influences human settlements and ecosystems through coastline progradation and retreat. To understand the mechanisms controlling the variations of fluvial water and sediment discharge for the Ebro drainage basin, Spain, we apply a hydrological model HydroTrend. Comparison of model results with a 47-year observational record (AD 1953-1999) suggests that the model adequately captures annual average water discharge (simulated 408 m(3)s(-1) versus observed 425 m(3)s(-1)) and sediment load (simulated 0.3 Mt yr(-1) versus observed 0.28 ± 0.04 Mt yr(-1)) for the Ebro basin. A long-term (4000-year) simulation, driven by paleoclimate and anthropogenic land cover change scenarios, indicates that water discharge is controlled by the changes in precipitation, which has a high annual variability but no long-term trend. Modeled suspended sediment load, however, has an increasing trend over time, which is closely related to anthropogenic land cover variations with no significant correlation to climatic changes. The simulation suggests that 4,000 years ago the annual sediment load to the ocean was 30.5 Mt yr(-1), which increased over time to 47.2 Mt yr(-1) (AD 1860-1960). In the second half of the 20th century, the emplacement of large dams resulted in a dramatic decrease in suspended sediment discharge, eventually reducing the flux to the ocean by more than 99% (mean value changes from 38.1 Mt yr(-1) to 0.3 Mt yr(-1)). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Climate change. Important findings from the 4. fact finding report of the intergovernmental commission on climate change of the United Nations (IPCC); Klimaaenderung. Wichtige Erkentnisse aus dem 4. Sachstandsbericht des Zwischenstaatlichen Ausschusses fuer Klimaaenderungen der Vereinten Nationen (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maeder, Claudia

    2009-12-19

    The Report covers the following topics: 1. anthropogenic climate change - since when do we know about it? 2. IPCC - the intergovernmental commission for climate change. 3. Assignable causes for climate change: changes of incoming solar radiation, changes of the reflected solar radiation, change of the heat radiation lost into space, aerosols, internal variability of the climate system. 4. Historical climate changes in long periods. 5. Development of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 6. Observed climate changes. 7. Projections of future climate changes. 8. Consequences of climate change: consequences of the actual temperature increase, possible future consequences, freshwater resources and their management, ecosystems, agricultural production, coastal regions and low lying areas.

  14. Assessing Attitudes Towards Global Climate Change Among Utah State University Faculty

    OpenAIRE

    Rohman, Amy C.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is a polarizing issue in which there are significant differences in perception between the scientific community and the general public. The intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has formally acknowledged an increasing body of evidence that supports primarily human-caused climate change. No scientific organization has dissented, and over thirty national academies of the sciences have issued joint declarations confirming the evidence of anthropogenic climate change. Th...

  15. Climate change, conflict and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

    2015-10-01

    Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  16. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  17. Climate Change and Collective Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

    2017-03-20

    Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and (c) by addressing underlying risk factors for collective violence, such as poverty and socioeconomic disparities.

  18. Climate Change and Poverty Nexus

    OpenAIRE

    O. Babalola Oladapo; A. Igbatayo Samuel

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and poverty are global issues which cannot be waved aside in welfare of the ever increasing population. The causes / consequences are far more elaborate in developing countries, including Nigeria, which poses threats to the existence of man and his environment. The dominant role of agriculture makes it obvious that even minor climate deteriorations can cause devastating socio-economic consequences. Policies to curb the climate change by reducing the consumption of fossil fuels ...

  19. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  20. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; hide

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  1. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and scientific consensus. How scientists come to say what they say about climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Skodvin, Tora

    1998-12-01

    This document reviews the background, organization and operation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It gives some background on climate change in the past and finally discusses what IPCC says about the likely future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. 14 refs., 8 figs.

  2. Mapping the climate change challenge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Rogelj, Joeri; Allen, Myles; Clarke, Leon; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Field, Christopher B.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Kesteren, Van Line; Knutti, Reto; Mach, Katharine J.; Mastrandrea, Michael; Michel, Adrien; Minx, Jan; Oppenheimer, Michael; Plattner, Gian Kasper; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Michiel; Stocker, Thomas F.; Vuuren, van Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Discussions on a long-term global goal to limit climate change, in the form of an upper limit to warming, were only partially resolved at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations in Paris, 2015. Such a political agreement must be informed by scientific knowledge. One

  3. Mapping the climate change challenge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Rogelj, Joeri; Allen, Myles; Clarke, Leon; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Field, Christopher B.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Van Kesteren, Line; Knutti, Reto; Mach, Katharine J.; Mastrandrea, Michael; Michel, Adrien; Minx, Jan; Oppenheimer, Michael; Plattner, Gian Kasper; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Michiel; Stocker, Thomas F.; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Discussions on a long-term global goal to limit climate change, in the form of an upper limit to warming, were only partially resolved at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations in Paris, 2015. Such a political agreement must be informed by scientific knowledge. One

  4. Energy, climate change and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simioni, M.; Stevens, G.W.

    2007-01-01

    There is now very little debate that the earth's climate is changing, and the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence. Many causes have been postulated and speculation about the eventual outcomes abounds. Whatever eventuates, society will have to adapt to a new and changing climate

  5. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  6. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-10-02

    Oct 2, 2017 ... consistent with this view is the UNDP-UNEP concept which describes mainstreaming in climate change adaptation as the iterative process of integrating climate change adaptation into development policy-making, planning, budgeting, implementation and monitoring processes at national, sector and ...

  7. Generating Arguments about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Barry; Grooms, Jonathon; Sampson, Victor; Oliveri, Robin

    2012-01-01

    This unit is a different and fun way to engage students with an extremely important topic, climate change, which cuts across scientific and nonscientific disciplines. While climate change itself may not be listed in the curriculum of every science class, the authors contend that such a unit is appropriate for virtually any science curriculum.…

  8. Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hull, Katy

    2008-01-01

    Equity emerged as the principal theme during the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) week session 'climate change, growth and poverty,' where presenters addressed the distributional consequences of climate change, as well as countries' unequal capacity to cope with the twin challenges of adaptation and mitigation. They highlighted actions to strengthen the global knowledge bas...

  9. Factors Other Than Climate Change, Main Drivers of 2014/15 Water Shortage in Southeast Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; Coelho, Caio A. S.; King, Andrew; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Wada, Yoshihide; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Haarsma, Rein; Haustein, Karsten; Uhe, Peter; van Aalst, Maarten; hide

    2015-01-01

    Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and water consumption increased vulnerability.

  10. Global and Mediterranean climate change: a short summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciardini, Virginia; Contessa, Gian Marco; Falsaperla, Rosaria; Gómez-Amo, José Luis; Meloni, Daniela; Monteleone, Francesco; Pace, Giandomenico; Piacentino, Salvatore; Sferlazzo, Damiano; di Sarra, Alcide

    2016-01-01

    Observed changes at the global scale. An increase of the annual mean global temperature and changes of other climate parameters have been observed in the last century. The global temperature and the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases are changing at a very fast pace compared to those found in palaeoclimate records. Changes in the Mediterranean. Variations of some climate change indicators can be much larger at the local than at the global scale, and the Mediterranean has been indicated among the regions most sensitive to climate change, also due to the increasing anthropogenic pressure. Model projections for the Mediterranean foresee further warming, droughts, and long-lasting modifications. Regional climate changes impact health and ecosystems, creating new risks, determined not only by weather events, but also by changing exposures and vulnerabilities. These issues, and in particular those regarding occupational safety, have not been sufficiently addressed to date.

  11. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    alireza kochaki

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the effects of climate change on these variables based on pre-determined scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that averaged over all stations, mean temperature increase for spring in the year 2025 and 2050 will be 3.1 and 3.9, for summer 3.8 and 4.7, for autumn 2.3 and 3 and for winter 2.0 and 2.4 ºC, respectively. This increase will be more pronounced from North to the South and from East to the West parts of the country. Mean decrease in autumn rainfall for the target years of 2025 and 2050 will be 8 and 11 percent, respectively. This decrease is negligible for summer months. Length of dry season for the years 2025 and 2050 will be increased, respectively up to 214 and 223 days due to combined effects of increased temperature and decreased rainfall.

  12. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  13. Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganesh, Chandrakala; Smith, Jason A

    2017-10-26

    Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print October 26, 2017: e1-e6. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2017.304047).

  14. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  15. Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorpe, Roger S; Barlow, Axel; Malhotra, Anita; Surget-Groba, Yann

    2015-03-01

    Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Climate change as a driver for future human migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M.; Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

    2016-12-01

    Human migration is driven by a multitude of factors, both socioeconomic and environmental. However, as impacts of anthropogenic climate change emerge and grow, it is widely conjectured that climate change will induce migration of human populations from areas that are adversely affected by climate change to areas that are less adversely or positively affected by climate change. Both low- and high-frequency climate changes have been empirically linked to migration in areas across the globe, but there has been little global-scale quantitative analysis projecting the scale and geography of climate-motivated migration. Considering temperature and precipitation in isolation from all other factors, here we project climate-driven impacts on the areal-density of human population. From this, we infer potential destinations and origins for the climate-motivated migration. Our results indicate that tropical and sub-tropical countries are the largest likely sources of migrants, with India being the country with the greatest number of potential climate emigrants. Global warming has the potential to motivate hundreds of millions of people to migrate in the coming decades, largely from warm tropical and subtropical countries to cooler temperate countries. Migration decisions will depend on many factors beyond climate; nevertheless our work establishes a foundation for quantifying future climate-motivated migration that can act as a starting point of more comprehensive assessments. The large number of potential climate migrants indicated by our analyses provides additional incentive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, take adaptive measures, and carefully consider migration policy.

  17. Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Jung, Jaegun; Kumar, Naresh; Yarwood, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Estimates of North American and US Background (NAB and USB) ozone (O3) are critical in setting and implementing the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and therefore influence population exposure to O3 across the US. NAB is defined as the O3 concentration in the absence of anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions from North America whereas USB excludes anthropogenic emissions inside the US alone. NAB and USB vary geographically and with time of year. Analyses of O3 trends at rural locations near the west coast suggest that background O3 is rising in response to increasing non-US emissions. As the O3 NAAQS is lowered, rising background O3 would make attaining the NAAQS more difficult. Most studies of changing US background O3 have inferred trends from observations whereas air quality management decisions tend to rely on models. Thus, it is important that the models used to develop O3 management strategies are able to represent the changes in background O3 in order to increase confidence that air quality management strategies will succeed. We focus on how changing global emissions influence USB rather than the effects of inter-annual meteorological variation or long-term climate change. We use a regional model (CAMx) nested within a global model (GEOS-Chem) to refine our grid resolution over high terrain in the western US and near US borders where USB tends to be higher. We determine USB from CAMx simulations that exclude US anthropogenic emissions. Over five decades, from 1970 to 2020, estimated USB for the annual fourth highest maximum daily 8-h average O3 (H4MDA8) in the western US increased from mostly in the range of 40-55 ppb to 45-60 ppb, but remained below 45 ppb in the eastern US. USB increases in the southwestern US are consistent with rising emissions in Asia and Mexico. USB decreases in the northeast US after 1990 follow declining Canadian emissions. Our results show that the USB increases both for the top 30 MDA8 days and the H4MDA8 (the former

  18. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  19. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC...

  20. Anthropogenic flank attack on polar bears: Interacting consequences of climate warming and pollutant exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bjørn Munro Jenssen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Polar bears (Ursus maritimus are subjected to several anthropogenic threats, climate warming and exposure to pollutants being two of these. For polar bears, one of the main effects of climate warming is limited access to prey, due to loss of their sea ice habitat. This will result in prolonged fasting periods and emaciation and condition related negative effects on survival and reproduction success. Prolonged fasting will result in increases of the tissue concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs in polar bears, and thus increase the probability for POP levels to exceed threshold levels for effects on health, and thus on reproductive success and survival. There are clear potentials for interactions between impacts of climate warming and impacts of pollutant exposure on polar bears. It is likely that that fasting-induced increases of POPs will add to mortality rates and decrease reproductive success beyond effects caused by loss of habitat alone. However, there is a lack of studies that have addressed this. Thus, there is a need to focus on population effects of POP exposure in polar bears, and to consider such effects in relation to the effects of climate induced habitat loss.

  1. Climate change and children's health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstein, Aaron S; Myers, Samuel S

    2011-04-01

    To present the latest data that demonstrate how climate change affects children's health and to identify the principal ways in which climate change puts children's health at risk. Data continue to emerge that further implicate climate change as contributing to health burdens in children. Climate models have become even more sophisticated and consistently forecast that greenhouse gas emissions will lead to higher mean temperatures that promote more intense storms and droughts, both of which have profound implications for child health. Recent climate models shed light upon the spread of vector-borne disease, including Lyme disease in North America and malaria in Africa. Modeling studies have found that conditions conducive to forest fires, which generate harmful air pollutants and damage agriculture, are likely to become more prevalent in this century due to the effects of greenhouse gases added to earth's atmosphere. Through many pathways, and in particular via placing additional stress upon the availability of food, clean air, and clean water and by potentially expanding the burden of disease from certain vector-borne diseases, climate change represents a major threat to child health. Pediatricians have already seen and will increasingly see the adverse health effects of climate change in their practices. Because of this, and many other reasons, pediatricians have a unique capacity to help resolve the climate change problem.

  2. Forest disturbances under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

    2017-06-01

    Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

  3. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  4. Responses of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change: Results from an earth system climate model simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang-Jing Wang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Based on simulations using the University of Victoria's Earth System Climate Model, we analyzed the responses of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change from 1800 to 2500 following the RCP 8.5 scenario and its extension. Compared to simulations without climate change, the simulation with a climate sensitivity of 3.0 K shows that in 2100, due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated sea surface temperature increases by 2.7 K, the intensity of the North Atlantic deep water formation reduces by 4.5 Sv, and the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 decreases by 0.8 Pg C. Climate change is also found to have a large effect on the North Atlantic's ocean column inventory of anthropogenic CO2. Between the years 1800 and 2500, compared with the simulation with no climate change, the simulation with climate change causes a reduction in the total anthropogenic CO2 column inventory over the entire ocean and in North Atlantic by 23.1% and 32.0%, respectively. A set of simulations with climate sensitivity variations from 0.5 K to 4.5 K show that with greater climate sensitivity climate change would have a greater effect in reducing the ocean's ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.

  5. Attribution of spring snow water equivalent (SWE) changes over the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi; Naveed Khaliq, M.

    2017-06-01

    Snow is an important component of the cryosphere and it has a direct and important influence on water storage and supply in snowmelt-dominated regions. This study evaluates the temporal evolution of snow water equivalent (SWE) for the February-April spring period using the GlobSnow observation dataset for the 1980-2012 period. The analysis is performed for different regions of hemispherical to sub-continental scales for the Northern Hemisphere. The detection-attribution analysis is then performed to demonstrate anthropogenic and natural effects on spring SWE changes for different regions, by comparing observations with six CMIP5 model simulations for three different external forcings: all major anthropogenic and natural (ALL) forcings, greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing only, and natural forcing only. The observed spring SWE generally displays a decreasing trend, due to increasing spring temperatures. However, it exhibits a remarkable increasing trend for the southern parts of East Eurasia. The six CMIP5 models with ALL forcings reproduce well the observed spring SWE decreases at the hemispherical scale and continental scales, whereas important differences are noted for smaller regions such as southern and northern parts of East Eurasia and northern part of North America. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings are clearly detected for the spring SWE decline at the hemispherical scale, based on multi-model ensemble signals. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings, however, are less clear for the smaller regions or with single-model signals, indicating the large uncertainty in regional SWE changes, possibly due to stronger influence of natural climate variability.

  6. How will climate change affect wildland fire severity in the western US?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sean A. Parks; Carol Miller; John T. Abatzoglou; Lisa M. Holsinger; Marc-Andre Parisien; Solomon Z. Dobrowski

    2016-01-01

    Fire regime characteristics in North America are expected to change over the next several decades as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Although some fire regime characteristics (e.g., area burned and fire season length) are relatively well-studied in the context of a changing climate, fire severity has received less attention. In this study, we used...

  7. Tree ring imprints of long-term changes in climate in western ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    2009-10-26

    Oct 26, 2009 ... Tree ring imprints of long-term changes in climate in western Himalaya, India. 699. J. Biosci. 34(5), November 2009. 1. Introduction. Earth's climate has been constantly changing in the geological past. However, change in atmospheric chemistry due to enhanced anthropogenic activity during the past.

  8. Climate change with Korea as the center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yeon Ok

    1998-04-01

    This book deals with climate change with Korea as the center, which is divided into ten chapters. It explain climate change by human life. The contents of this book are climate change, climate before human period, great ice age of prehistoric period, prehistoric times of last glacial era, climate change in historical era, change during observation time for 100 years, warming period, global environment period, the cause of climate change and climate and human. It has reference and an index.

  9. Volcanic activity and climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryson, R A; Goodman, B M

    1980-03-07

    Radiocarbon dates of volcanic activity suggest variations that appear to be related to climatic changes. Historical eruption records also show variations on the scale of years to centuries. These records can be combined with simple climatic models to estimate the impact of various volcanic activity levels. From this analysis it appears that climatic prediction in the range of 2 years to many decades requires broad-scale volcanic activity prediction. Statistical analysis of the volcanic record suggests that some predictability is possible.

  10. Climate Change and World Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Parry, M.L.

    1990-01-01

    In 1990 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) completed its report on the greenhouse effect. The IPCC had been set up under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme, to examine how climate and sea level might change, what might be the impact of these changes and what could be the most appropriate response to them. IPCC Working Groups tackled each of these three tasks. Working Group II (Impacts) concluded that greenhouse ...

  11. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K.; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T.; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

    2014-01-01

    Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y−1), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y−1. Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y−1 could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient—measured in “total abatement calorie cost”—than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes. PMID:24567375

  12. An Integrated Approach for Understanding Anthropogenic and Climatic Impacts on Lakes: A Case study from Lake Iznik, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derin, Y.; Milewski, A.; Fryar, A. E.; Schroeder, P.

    2013-12-01

    Lakes are among the most vital natural water resource, providing many environmental and economic advantages to a region. Unfortunately, many lakes are disappearing or continue to be polluted as industrial and agricultural practices increase to keep pace with rising populations. Lake Iznik, the biggest lake (approximately 300 km2) in the Marmara Region in Turkey, is a significant water resource as it provides opportunities for recreational activities, agriculture, industry, and water production for the region. However, rapid population growth combined with poor land management practices in this water basin has contributed to decreased water quality and water levels. As a result, Lake Iznik has switched from being Mesotrophic to Eutrophic in the past thirty years. This research aims to understand both the anthropogenic and climatic impacts on Lake Iznik. An integrated approach combining satellite remote sensing, hydrogeology, hydrologic modeling, and climatology was utilized to identify the source and timing responsible for the decline in water quality and quantity. Specifically, Landsat TM images from 1990, 2000, 2005, and 2010 were collected, processed, and analyzed for changes in landuse/landcover and surface area extent of Lake Iznik. Water level and water quality data (e.g. streamflow, lake level, pH, conductivity, total nitrogen, total dissolved solid etc.) collected from the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSI) from 1980-2012 were obtained from 4 stations and compared to the Landsat landuse mosaics. Meteorological data collected from Turkish State Meteorological Service from 1983-2012 were obtained from 3 stations (precipitation, temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, vapor pressure, wind speed and pan evaporation). A hydrologic model using MIKE21 was constructed to measure the change in streamflow and subsequent lake level as a result of changes in both land use and climate. Results have demonstrated the drop in water level from

  13. Climate change adaptation of the built environment – an examination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    phenomena. This is why the term 'environmental changes' might be more accurate than climate change. ‘Environmental changes’ suggests that climate changes ought to be understood as extensive environmental changes, with an impact on the built environment. Following this, it is no longer sufficient only...... to assess for example a building, and anthropogenic impacts on the environment, also the impact of the environment on installations, and on the human activities must be included in the analysis and assessments. Based on observations and investigations into climate change adaptation in DK and abroad......In a Danish context, climate changes are primarily manifested in an interaction between modified wind and precipitation patterns, increasing temperature and a rising sea level. The individual factors often act together and are reinforced in interaction with already known natural and cultural...

  14. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E; Street-Perrott, F Alayne; Lehmann, Johannes; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-08-10

    Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO(2)-C equivalent (CO(2)-C(e)) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO(2)-C(e) emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO(2)-C(e), without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset.

  15. Climate change, food, water and population health in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Shilu; Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D

    2016-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.

  16. Climate Change, Fuels, and Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-29

    Climate Change , Fuels, and Wildfire November 29, 2011 Partners in Environmental Technology Technical Symposium & Workshop SERDP|ESTCP Anthony...NOV 2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Climate Change , Fuels, and Wildfire 5a. CONTRACT...drivers of fire activity in very diverse ecosystems in California and the Northern Rockies, and summarize how climate change may affect these. In order to

  17. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  18. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  19. Challenges of climate change. Which climate governance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieillefosse, A.; Cros, Ch.

    2007-01-01

    This report deals with the main challenges of climate change, and attempts to answer some questions: what is the temperature increase foreseen by scientific experts? Who will be affected by the consequences of climate change? Are there technologies to reduce emissions? If yes, why are they not diffused? Is it justified to ask developing countries to do something? Are concurrence distortions a real problem? Which are the main sectors where emissions are to be reduced? Are tools developed at the international level efficient? What is the present assessment for the clean development mechanism? What can be thought of technological partnerships developed with the United States? Then, the report comments the present status of international discussions, proposes a brief assessment of the Kyoto protocol ten years after its implementation, and proposes some improvement pathways

  20. Arctic adaptation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agnew, T.A.; Headley, A.

    1994-01-01

    The amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic and the sensitivity of physical, biological, and human systems to changes in climate make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Large areas of the Arctic permafrost and sea ice are expected to disappear under climate warming and these changes will have considerable impacts on the natural and built environment of the north. A review is presented of some recent studies on what these impacts could be for the permafrost and sea ice environment and to identify linkages with socioeconomic activities. Terrestrial adaptation to climate change will include increases in ground temperature; melting of permafrost with consequences such as frost heave, mudslides, and substantial settlement; rotting of peat contained in permafrost areas, with subsequent emission of CO 2 ; increased risk of forest fire; and flooding of low-lying areas. With regard to the manmade environment, structures that will be affected include buildings, pipelines, highways, airports, mines, and railways. In marine areas, climate change will increase the ice-free period for marine transport operations and thus provide some benefit to the offshore petroleum industry. This benefit will be offset by increased wave height and period, and increased coastal erosion. The offshore industry needs to be particularly concerned with these impacts since the expected design life of industry facilities (30-60 y) is of the same order as the time frame for possible climatic changes. 18 refs., 5 figs

  1. Climate change, wine, and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

    2013-04-23

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

  2. Water, climate change and society in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiele-Eich, Insa; Aßheuer, Tibor; Simmer, Clemens

    2017-04-01

    Due to its location in the extensive Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river delta, Bangladesh faces multiple natural hazards, in particular flooding, droughts and sea-level rise. In addition to climate change, transboundary water sharing issues resulting from dam structures such as Farakka Barrage complicate a prognosis on how the rapidly growing population will be affected in the 21st century. This is particularly important as our previous research suggests that the Greater Dhaka population already experiences a significant increase in mortality during droughts (Thiele-Eich et al., 2015). We attempt to explore the complex interactions between the hydrological system under climate change and anthropogenic impacts due to dams as well as a growing population. Our approach consists of a quantitative assessment of climate change using over fourty years of meteorological data (Bangladesh Meteorological Department) and hydrological data (Bangladesh Water Development Board), and CCSM4 climate model output (NCAR, 1950-2100). In addition to an extensive literature review, we also conducted qualitative interviews with slum dwellers in the megacity Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. Results show that significant changes in flood characteristics are expected for the later part of the 21st century, although they are difficult to quantify down to exact numbers due to large uncertainties. These changes take place over longer stretches of time and thus enable the population of Bangladesh to adapt slowly. Resources such as social capital, which is one of the main tools for slum dwellers to be able to cope with flooding can be altered over time, and as such the system can be considered overall stable and resilient. The presented results will also focus on how the riparian and coastal population is impacted by the interplay of natural changes such as sea-level rise and anthropogenic changes such as Farakka Barrage and the associated reduction in dry season flow. Thiele-Eich, I.; Burkart, K

  3. Decline of Yangtze River water and sediment discharge: Impact from natural and anthropogenic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, S L; Xu, K H; Milliman, J D; Yang, H F; Wu, C S

    2015-07-24

    The increasing impact of both climatic change and human activities on global river systems necessitates an increasing need to identify and quantify the various drivers and their impacts on fluvial water and sediment discharge. Here we show that mean Yangtze River water discharge of the first decade after the closing of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) (2003-2012) was 67 km(3)/yr (7%) lower than that of the previous 50 years (1950-2002), and 126 km(3)/yr less compared to the relatively wet period of pre-TGD decade (1993-2002). Most (60-70%) of the decline can be attributed to decreased precipitation, the remainder resulting from construction of reservoirs, improved water-soil conservation and increased water consumption. Mean sediment flux decreased by 71% between 1950-1968 and the post-TGD decade, about half of which occurred prior to the pre-TGD decade. Approximately 30% of the total decline and 65% of the decline since 2003 can be attributed to the TGD, 5% and 14% of these declines to precipitation change, and the remaining to other dams and soil conservation within the drainage basin. These findings highlight the degree to which changes in riverine water and sediment discharge can be related with multiple environmental and anthropogenic factors.

  4. Smallholder Agriculture and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohn, Avery S.; Newton, Peter; Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Kuhl, Laura; Samberg, Leah; Ricciardi, Vincent; Manly, Jessica R.; Northrop, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Hundreds of millions of the world's poorest people directly depend on smallholder farming systems. These people now face a changing climate and associated societal responses. We use mapping and a literature review to juxtapose the climate fate of smallholder systems with that of other agricultural

  5. Climate Change and Conceptual Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J.

    2013-01-01

    Global Warming ("GW") is easily one of the most pressing concerns of our time, and its solution will come about only through a change in human behavior. Compared to the residents of most other nations worldwide, Americans report lower acceptance of the realities of GW. In order to address this concern in a free society, U.S. residents…

  6. Climate Change and Health

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    David Gikungu

    Adaptation contd. Key action areas in Kenya include: • Public health education and risk reduction. • Enhance systems for information gathering and dissemination. • Document, adopt and adapt relevant indigenous / traditional knowledge and endogenous technologies. • Stocking drugs for climate-sensitive diseases ahead.

  7. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  8. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  9. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  10. Climate change; Le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  11. Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurance, William F.

    2004-01-01

    This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors