WorldWideScience

Sample records for anthropogenic climate change

  1. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C; Hartter, Joel; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary; Moore, David W; Safford, Thomas G

    2015-01-01

    A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

  2. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence C Hamilton

    Full Text Available A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40% concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15% say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

  3. Anthropogenic climate change in the Playa Lakes Joint Venture region

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Anthropogenic climate change has been driving regional climate shifts in the Playa Lakes Joint Venture zone since at least the mid 1970s. As a result, summers are...

  4. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.

  5. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change Gerrit Hansen Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced climate change are a

  6. Anthropogenic Climate Change and Allergic Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hueiwang Anna Jeng

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have an impact on various aspects of health, including mucosal areas involved in allergic inflammatory disorders that include asthma, allergic rhinitis, allergic conjunctivitis and anaphylaxis. The evidence that links climate change to the exacerbation and the development of allergic disease is increasing and appears to be linked to changes in pollen seasons (duration, onset and intensity and changes in allergen content of plants and their pollen as it relates to increased sensitization, allergenicity and exacerbations of allergic airway disease. This has significant implications for air quality and for the global food supply.

  7. Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Archer

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Methane frozen into hydrate makes up a large reservoir of potentially volatile carbon below the sea floor and associated with permafrost soils. This reservoir intuitively seems precarious, because hydrate ice floats in water, and melts at Earth surface conditions. The hydrate reservoir is so large that if 10% of the methane were released to the atmosphere within a few years, it would have an impact on the Earth's radiation budget equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric CO2.

    Hydrates are releasing methane to the atmosphere today in response to anthropogenic warming, for example along the Arctic coastline of Siberia. However most of the hydrates are located at depths in soils and ocean sediments where anthropogenic warming and any possible methane release will take place over time scales of millennia. Individual catastrophic releases like landslides and pockmark explosions are too small to reach a sizable fraction of the hydrates. The carbon isotopic excursion at the end of the Paleocene has been interpreted as the release of thousands of Gton C, possibly from hydrates, but the time scale of the release appears to have been thousands of years, chronic rather than catastrophic.

    The potential climate impact in the coming century from hydrate methane release is speculative but could be comparable to climate feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere and from peat, significant but not catastrophic. On geologic timescales, it is conceivable that hydrates could release much carbon to the atmosphere/ocean system as we do by fossil fuel combustion.

  8. Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Archer

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Methane frozen into hydrate makes up a large reservoir of potentially volatile carbon below the sea floor and associated with permafrost soils. This reservoir intuitively seems precarious, because hydrate ice floats in water, and melts at Earth surface conditions. The hydrate reservoir is so large that if 10% of the methane were released to the atmosphere within a few years, it would have an impact on the Earth's radiation budget equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric CO2.

    Hydrates are releasing methane to the atmosphere today in response to anthropogenic warming, for example along the Arctic coastline of Siberia. However most of the hydrates are located at depths in soils and ocean sediments where anthropogenic warming and any possible methane release will take place over time scales of millennia. Individual catastrophic releases like landslides and pockmark explosions are too small to reach a sizable fraction of the hydrates. The carbon isotopic excursion at the end of the Paleocene has been interpreted as the release of thousands of Gton C, possibly from hydrates, but the time scale of the release appears to have been thousands of years, chronic rather than catastrophic.

    The potential climate impact in the coming century from hydrate methane release is speculative but could be comparable to climate feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere and from peat, significant but not catastrophic. On geologic timescales, it is conceivable that hydrates could release as much carbon to the atmosphere/ocean system as we do by fossil fuel combustion.

  9. Detecting anthropogenic climate change with an optimal fingerprint method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hegerl, G.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Storch, H. von [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Hasselmann, K. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Santer, B.D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison; Cubasch, U. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Jones, P.D. [East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). Climatic Research Unit

    1994-09-01

    We propose a general fingerprint strategy to detect anthropogenic climate change and present application to near surface temperature trends. An expected time-space-variable pattern of anthropogenic climate change (the `signal`) is identified through application of an appropriate optimally matched space-time filter (the `fingerprint`) to the observations. The signal and the fingerprint are represented in a space with sufficient observed and simulated data. The signal pattern is derived from a model-generated prediction of anthropogenic climate change. Application of the fingerprint filter to the data yields a scalar detection variable. The statistically optimal fingerprint is obtained by weighting the model-predicted pattern towards low-noise directions. A combination of model output and observations is used to estimate the noise characteristics of the detection variable, arising from the natural variability of climate in the absence of external forcing. We test then the null hypothesis that the observed climate change is part of natural climate variability. We conclude that a statistically significant externally induced warming has been observed, with the caveat of a possibly inadequate estimate of the internal climate variability. In order to attribute this warming uniquely to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, more information on the climate`s response to other forcing mechanisms (e.g. changes in solar radiation, volcanic or anthropogenic aerosols) and their interaction is needed. (orig./KW)

  10. Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

  11. Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures. (letter)

  12. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  13. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation-climate and vegetation-carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model MPI ESM including a module for vegetation dynamics. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the period from 1850 to 2120 and shut them down afterwards to evaluate the equilibrium response of the Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to a static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a higher temperature as evapotranspiration is reduced. In total, we find that vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K in 2300 due to natural vegetation cover shifts.

  14. Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

  15. Attribution of irreversible loss to anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Bresch, David; Hansen, Gerrit; James, Rachel; Mechler, Reinhard; Stone, Dáithí; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo

    2016-04-01

    The Paris Agreement (2015) under the UNFCCC has anchored loss and damage in a separate article which specifies that understanding and support should be enhanced in areas addressing loss and damage such as early warning, preparedness, insurance and resilience. Irreversible loss is a special category under loss and damage but there is still missing clarity over what irreversible loss actually includes. Many negative impacts of climate change may be handled or mitigated by existing risk management, reduction and absorption approaches. Irreversible loss, however, is thought to be insufficiently addressed by risk management. Therefore, countries potentially or actually affected by irreversible loss are calling for other measures such as compensation, which however is highly contested in international climate policy. In Paris (2015) a decision was adopted that loss and damage as defined in the respective article of the agreement does not involve compensation and liability. Nevertheless, it is likely that some sort of mechanism will eventually need to come into play for irreversible loss due to anthropogenic climate change, which might involve compensation, other forms of non-monetary reparation, or transformation. Furthermore, climate litigation has increasingly been attempted to address negative effects of climate change. In this context, attribution is important to understand the drivers of change, what counts as irreversible loss due to climate change, and, possibly, who or what is responsible. Here we approach this issue by applying a detection and attribution perspective on irreversible loss. We first analyze detected climate change impacts as assessed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. We distinguish between irreversible loss in physical, biological and human systems, and accordingly identify the following candidates of irreversible loss in these systems: loss of glaciers and ice sheets, loss of subsurface ice (permafrost) and related loss of lake systems; loss

  16. Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers' joint construction of climate perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asplund, Therese

    2016-07-01

    While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change.

  17. Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers' joint construction of climate perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asplund, Therese

    2016-07-01

    While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change. PMID:25471349

  18. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.

  19. Nuclear Renaissance in an Era of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper substantiates the anthropogenic origin of climate change, demonstrates the resulting consequences, and thereby establishes the need for a nuclear renaissance over the next thirty years. First, the mechanisms behind the natural cycles in global warming, specifically, cycles of precession and eccentricity in Earth's orbit, as measured in ice cores, are compared to the mechanisms of anthropogenic warming, revealing the scientific basis for the observed correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature. Second, the resulting climate change is exemplified by key results from experiments performed by the author in the Arctic and at the South Geographic Pole, and the author's experience of Switzerland's costliest natural catastrophe - the flash flood of 2005. Third, although facing barriers such as research and development requirements, political will and public acceptance, the potential for nuclear power to triple to 1,000 GWe by 2050 would mitigate climate change by holding carbon dioxide concentration below 500 ppm, thereby challenging the younger nuclear generation to contribute to the most important issue facing humanity. (authors)

  20. Nuclear Renaissance in an Era of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bird, John [Bruce Power, Box 3000 B06, Tiverton, Ontario N0G 2T0 (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    This paper substantiates the anthropogenic origin of climate change, demonstrates the resulting consequences, and thereby establishes the need for a nuclear renaissance over the next thirty years. First, the mechanisms behind the natural cycles in global warming, specifically, cycles of precession and eccentricity in Earth's orbit, as measured in ice cores, are compared to the mechanisms of anthropogenic warming, revealing the scientific basis for the observed correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature. Second, the resulting climate change is exemplified by key results from experiments performed by the author in the Arctic and at the South Geographic Pole, and the author's experience of Switzerland's costliest natural catastrophe - the flash flood of 2005. Third, although facing barriers such as research and development requirements, political will and public acceptance, the potential for nuclear power to triple to 1,000 GWe by 2050 would mitigate climate change by holding carbon dioxide concentration below 500 ppm, thereby challenging the younger nuclear generation to contribute to the most important issue facing humanity. (authors)

  1. Detection of anthropogenic climate change using a fingerprint method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasselmann, K. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Bengtsson, L. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Cubasch, U. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Hegerl, G.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Rodhe, H. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology; Roeckner, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Storch, H. v. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Waszkewitz, J. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-07-01

    A fingerprint method for detecting anthropogenic climate change is applied to new simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) forced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols covering the years 1880 to 2050. In addition to the anthropogenic climate change signal, the space-time structure of the natural climate variability for near-surface temperatures is estimated from instrumental data over the last 134 years and two 1000 year simulations with CGCMs. The estimates are compared with paleoclimate data over 570 years. The space-time information on both the signal and the noise is used to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio of a detection variable obtained by applying an optimal filter (fingerprint) to the observed data. The inclusion of aerosols slows the predicted future warming. The probability that the observed increase in near-surface temperatures in recent decades is of natural origin is estimated to be less than 5%. However, this number is dependent on the estimated natural variability level, which is still subject to some uncertainty. (orig.)

  2. Anthropogenic climate change impacts on ponds: a thermal mass perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Matthews

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Small freshwater aquatic lentic systems (lakes and ponds are sensitive to anthropogenic climate change through shifts in ambient air temperatures and patterns of precipitation. Shifts in air temperatures will influence lentic water temperatures through convection and by changing evaporation rates. Shifts in the timing, amount, and intensity of precipitation will alter the thermal mass of lentic systems even in the absence of detectable ambient air temperature changes. These effects are likely to be strongest in ponds (standing water bodies primarily mixed by temperature changes than by wind, for whom precipitation makes up a large component of inflows. Although historical water temperature datasets are patchy for lentic systems, thermal mass effects are likely to outweigh impacts from ambient air temperatures in most locations and may show considerable independence from those trends. Thermal mass-induced changes in water temperature will thereby alter a variety of population- and community-level processes in aquatic macroinvertebrates.

  3. Interactive effects of anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change and Nr from anthropogenic activities are causing some of the most rapid changes in biodiversity in recent times. Climate change is causing warming trends that result in poleward and elevational range shiftsof flora and fauna, and changes in phenology, particularly ...

  4. The orography of anthropogenic climate change in the western USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Mote, P.; Massey, N.; Allen, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Though orography is expected to modulate the larger-scale climate response to increased greenhouse gases, the understanding of meso-scale climate changes in regions of highly varying topography has faced two major challenges. The first is that it requires simulating climate at spatial resolutions finer than those used by current global climate models (GCMs). The second challenge is the ever-decreasing signal-to-noise ratio as one examines climate change patterns at finer and finer granularity. Whereas regional climate models (RCMs) at high resolutions (~4 to 32 km) are being increasingly used, computational demands have placed practical constraints on their utility: few ensemble members and high internal variability leads to limited powers of detection, and even less of attribution. To explore orographic controls on meso-scale changes, climate of the western USA was simulated of the recent past (1986-2014) and of the mid-21st century (2031-2058) with RCP4.5 forcings assumed for the future. To overcome challenge #1, an RCM (HadRM3P; 25-km horizontal resolution) was nested in an atmospheric GCM (HadAM3P; 1.875° lon. by 1.25° lat.). Challenge #2 was overcome by averaging over a large ensemble (100 members per year) of simulations. The ensemble averaging reveals clear, non-random, meso-scale patterns in the spatial distribution of both seasonal temperature and precipitation changes (some surprising) that can be linked to concomitant land-surface and atmospheric processes (e.g., land surface-atmosphere energy exchanges, snow pack depletion, and shifting wind patterns).

  5. Anthropogenic Climate Change in Undergraduate Marine and Environmental Science Programs in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlietstra, Lucy S.; Mrakovcich, Karina L.; Futch, Victoria C.; Stutzman, Brooke S.

    2016-01-01

    To develop a context for program-level design decisions pertaining to anthropogenic climate change, the authors studied the prevalence of courses focused on human-induced climate change in undergraduate marine science and environmental science degree programs in the United States. Of the 86 institutions and 125 programs the authors examined, 37%…

  6. Anthropogenic climate change: Scientific uncertainties and moral dilemmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillerbrand, Rafaela; Ghil, Michael

    2008-08-01

    This paper considers the role of scientific expertise and moral reasoning in the decision making process involved in climate-change issues. It points to an unresolved moral dilemma that lies at the heart of this decision making, namely how to balance duties towards future generations against duties towards our contemporaries. At present, the prevailing moral and political discourses shy away from addressing this dilemma and evade responsibility by falsely drawing normative conclusions from the predictions of climate models alone. We argue that such moral dilemmas are best addressed in the framework of Expected Utility Theory. A crucial issue is to adequately incorporate into this framework the uncertainties associated with the predicted consequences of climate change on the well-being of future generations. The uncertainties that need to be considered include those usually associated with climate modeling and prediction, but also moral and general epistemic ones. This paper suggests a way to correctly incorporate all the relevant uncertainties into the decision making process.

  7. Climatic consequences of anthropogenic vegetation changes from 1880-1980

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gornitz, Vivien

    1987-01-01

    The changes in the surface albedo associated with land-use alterations from 1880-1980 and the climatic implications of these changes are discussed. Changes in atmospheric CO2, the hydrologic cycle, atmospheric particulates and aerosols are reviewed. A global survey of the growth of agriculture and forestry data is presented. The anthopogenic vegetation changes in western Africa are examined in detail. Maps and tables of anthopogenic vegetation and albedo changes are presented for western Africa, South America, and worldwide. It is found that the mean regional albedo increased from 17.4 in 1880 to 17.8 in 1980. No apparent secular decrease in precipitation linked to vegetation clearing is observed. It is suggested that disruption of the hydrologic cycle as a result of devegetation may have led to reductions in soil moisture.

  8. MODELING THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC SULFATE IN CLIMATE CHANGE BY USING A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高学杰; 林一骅; 赵宗慈

    2003-01-01

    Effects of aerosol with focus on the direct climate effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol under 2×CO2 condition were investigated by introducing aerosol distribution into the latest version of RegCM2. Two experiments, first run(2×CO2 + 0 aerosol concentration) and second run (2×CO2 + aerosol distribution), were made for 5 years respectively. Preliminary analysis shows that the direct climate effect of aerosol might cause a decrease of surface air temperature.The decrease might be larger in winter and in South China. The regional-averaged monthly precipitation might also decrease in most of the months due to the effect. The annual mean change of precipitation might be a decrease in East and an increase in West China. But the changes of both temperature and precipitation simulated were much smaller as compared to the greenhouse effect.

  9. Distinctive timing of US historical surface ozone change determined by climate and anthropogenic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai

    2016-04-01

    Future changes in surface ozone in a warming climate is an important question for the United States. Analyses of historical ozone change in response to climate change, although useful for validating theories regarding future ozone changes, are complicated by concurrent changes in anthropogenic emissions. Here we find that the individual contributions of climate and precursor emissions to US historical ozone changes over 1990-2014 can be distinguished by contrasting the changes in daytime versus nighttime ozone, based on an analysis of observed and simulated annual mean ozone time series. In particular, climate variability has determined ozone interannual variability, particularly for the daytime ozone, while reductions of anthropogenic NOx emissions have primarily driven an increase in the nighttime ozone. Our results have important implications for future ozone change studies and ozone mitigation.

  10. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Daniel; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Huntingford, Chris; Masato, Giacomo; Guillod, Benoit P.; Frumhoff, Peter; Bowery, Andy; Wallom, David; Allen, Myles

    2016-07-01

    It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ∼70% and by ∼20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ∼315 and ∼735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change.

  11. Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul John Beggs

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.

  12. Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    Paul John Beggs; Hilary Jane Bambrick

    2006-01-01

    The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a pl...

  13. Signs of critical transition in the Everglades wetlands in response to climate and anthropogenic changes

    OpenAIRE

    R. Foti; del Jesus, M.; Rinaldo, A.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2013-01-01

    The increasing pressure of climatic change and anthropogenic activities is predicted to have major effects on ecosystems around the world. With their fragility and sensitivity to hydrologic shifts and land-use changes, wetlands are among the most vulnerable of such ecosystems. Focusing on the Everglades National Park, we here assess the impact of changes in the hydrologic regime, as well as habitat loss, on the spatial configuration of vegetation species. Because the current structuring of ve...

  14. Anthropogenic and Natural Changes in the Climate of China: Can we Separate Them ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Yang, X.

    2015-12-01

    Climate changes result from all forces, natural and anthropogenic. Among various anthropogenic factors, greenhouse gases, aerosol and urbanization are arguably the most significant ones whose effects are often hard to differentiate, as they often intertwined together. It is, however, extremely, important to separate their effects for the sake of both science (e.g. accounting for them in GCMs) and for making sound policy in light of their diverse implications. Few places in the world are more affected by all three factors than China where decades of fast development have drastically altered atmospheric and terrestrial environment with huge greenhouse emissions. Such changes have left deep footprints in the climate system. While the anthropogenic impact is substantial, it is a nontrivial task to detangle them. In this talk, I will present a pilot study showing how changes in temperature and precipitation are linked with these factors with a particular focus on temperature and precipitation. From their long-term observations, we are able to see the contributions of increasing air pollution to mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, and rainfall of varying intensity from drizzle to thunderstorms. By means of analysis of long-term meteorological records and model simulations, we have tried to differentiate natural and anthropogenic changes in the climate of China.

  15. Detecting cross-equatorial wind change as a fingerprint of climate response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hai; Xie, Shang-Ping; Tokinaga, Hiroki; Liu, Qinyu; Kosaka, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols are a major driver of the twetieth century climate change. In climate models, the aerosol forcing, larger in the Northern than Southern Hemispheres, induces an interhemispheric Hadley circulation. In support of the model result, we detected a robust change in the zonal mean cross-equatorial wind over the past 60 years from ship observations and reanalyses, accompanied by physically consistent changes in atmospheric pressure and marine cloud cover. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the observed change in cross-equatorial wind is a fingerprint of aerosol forcing. This zonal mean mode follows the evolution of global aerosol forcing that is distinct from regional changes in the Atlantic sector. Atmospheric simulations successfully reproduce this interhemispheric mode, indicating the importance of sea surface temperature mediation in response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. As societies awaken to reduce aerosol emissions, a phase reversal of this interhemispheric mode is expected in the 21st century.

  16. The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vallis, Geoffrey K.

    2015-02-01

    The project had two main components. The first concerns estimating the climate sensitivity in the presence of forcing uncertainty and natural variability. Climate sensitivity is the increase in the average surface temperature for a given increase in greenhouse gases, for example a doubling of carbon dioxide. We have provided new, probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity using a simple climate model an the observed warming in the 20th century, in conjunction with ideas in data assimilation and parameter estimation developed in the engineering community. The estimates combine the uncertainty in the anthropogenic aerosols with the uncertainty arising because of natural variability. The second component concerns how the atmospheric circulation itself might change with anthropogenic global warming. We have shown that GCMs robustly predict an increase in the length scale of eddies, and we have also explored the dynamical mechanisms whereby there might be a shift in the latitude of the jet stream associated with anthropogenic warming. Such shifts in the jet might cause large changes in regional climate, potentially larger than the globally-averaged signal itself. We have also shown that the tropopause robustly increases in height with global warming, and that the Hadley Cell expands, and that the expansion of the Hadley Cell is correlated with the polewards movement of the mid-latitude jet.

  17. Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, J.

    2013-04-27

    This paper aims to test the robustness of the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change using four different empirical models that were previously developed to explain the observed global mean temperature changes over the last few decades. These studies postulated that the main drivers of these changes included not only the usual natural forcings, such as solar and volcanic, and anthropogenic forcings, such as greenhouse gases and sulfates, but also other known Earth system oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In this paper, we consider these signals, or forced responses, and test whether or not the anthropogenic signal can be robustly detected under different assumptions for the internal variability of the climate system. We assume that the internal variability of the global mean surface temperature can be described by simple stochastic models that explore a wide range of plausible temporal autocorrelations, ranging from short memory processes exemplified by an AR(1) model to long memory processes, represented by a fractional differenced model. In all instances, we conclude that human-induced changes to atmospheric gas composition is affecting global mean surface temperature changes. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  18. Global surface water quality hotspots under climate change and anthropogenic developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Yearsley, John R.

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, freshwater usage for various sectors (e.g. agriculture, industry, energy and domestic) has more than doubled. A growing global population will place further demands on water supplies, whereas the availability and quality of water resources will be affected by climate change and human impacts. These developments will increase imbalances between fresh water demand and supply in terms of both water quantity and water quality. Here we discuss a methodology to identify regions of the world where surface water quality is expected to deteriorate under climate change and anthropogenic developments. Our approach integrates global hydrological-water quality modelling, climate and socio-economic scenarios and relations of water quality with physical and socio-economic drivers.

  19. Quantifying loss and damage from anthropogenic climate change - Bridging the gap between two research communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, F. E. L.

    2015-12-01

    The science of attribution of meteorological events to anthropogenic causes has for the first time been included in the latest assessment of the Physical Science Basis of the Climate, (WGI), of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report AR5 (Stocker et al., 2013). At the same time there is a very rapidly growing body of literature on climate change and its impact on economy, society and environment but apart from very few exemptions no link is made to the causes of these changes. Observed changes in hydrological variables, agriculture, biodiversity and the built environment have been attributed to a changing climate, whether these changes are the result of natural variability or external forcings (Cramer et al., 2014). While the research community represented in WGI assesses whether, and to what extent, recent extreme weather events can be attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, the research community of impact specialists asks how climatic changes lead to different impacts largely independent of the causes of such changes. This distinction becomes potentially very relevant with respect to the 2013 established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change in developing countries under the UNFCCC climate change negotiations. Currently there is no discussion what consists of loss and damage and the reasons for this inexistence of a definition are not primarily scientific but political however, the absence of a definition could potentially lead to absurd consequences if funds in the context of loss and damage would be redistributed, as e.g. suggested, for all low risk high impact events. Here we present the implications of discussed definitions of loss and damage (Huggel et al. 2015) and how scientific evidence could be included. Cramer et al. (2014) Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of WG 2 to AR5 of

  20. Volcanic Impacts on Short- and Long-Term Climate, Comparison with Anthropogenic Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Czopak, Claudia 1990

    2012-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions cause the formation of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere, which change radiative forcing and thereby have an impact on the climate system. In this paper, I summarise observed short-term effects, for example surface cooling. I then discuss how short-term volcanic forcing can be transformed into long-term climatic changes by long dynamical feedbacks and briefly look into how volcanic eruptions might increase the possibility of El Niño events. As historical examples for pote...

  1. Attributing Human Mortality During Extreme Heat Waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, D.; Heaviside, C.; Vardoulakis, S.; Huntingford, C.; Masato, G.; Guillod, B. P.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Bowery, A.; Allen, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century (Costello et al, 2009; Watts et al, 2015). Perhaps one of the clearest examples of this is the summer heat wave of 2003, which saw up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe (Robine et al, 2007). The extreme temperatures are now thought to be significantly enhanced due to anthropogenic climate change (Stott et al, 2004; Christidis et al, 2015). Here, we consider not only the Europe-wide temperature response of the heat wave, but the localised response using a high-resolution regional model simulating 2003 climate conditions thousands of times. For the first time, by employing end-to-end attribution, we attribute changes in mortality to the increased radiative forcing from climate change, with a specific focus on London and Paris. We show that in both cities, a sizable proportion of the excess mortality can be attributed to human emissions. With European heat waves projected to increase into the future, these results provide a worrying reality for what may lie ahead. Christidis, Nikolaos, Gareth S. Jones, and Peter A. Stott. "Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave." Nature Climate Change (2014). Costello, Anthony, et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373.9676 (2009): 1693-1733. Stott, Peter A., Dáithí A. Stone, and Myles R. Allen. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003." Nature 432.7017 (2004): 610-614 Watts, N., et al. "Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health." Lancet. 2015.

  2. Urban Cholera and Water Sustainability Challenges under Climatic and Anthropogenic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Faruque, A. G.; Colwell, R. R.

    2013-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city of the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the developing world, especially those located in coastal regions of the tropics remain vulnerable to similar. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with changes in related climatic, environmental, or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or societal factors: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera incidence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend seem to be more epidemic in nature. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements that have negligible to poor water and sanitation systems compounded by increasing frequency of record flood events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of spring outbreaks, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the region.

  3. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, B.; Liou, K. N.; He, C.; Lee, W. L.; Gu, Y.; Li, Q.; Leung, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols affect regional climate significantly through radiative (direct and semi-direct) and indirect effects, but the magnitude of these effects over megacities are subject to large uncertainty. In this study, we evaluated the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China using the online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry Model (WRF/Chem) with the Fu-Liou-Gu radiation scheme and a spatial resolution of 4km. We further updated this radiation scheme with a geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) approach for the computation of light absorption and scattering by black carbon (BC) particles in which aggregation shape and internal mixing properties are accounted for. In addition, we incorporated in WRF/Chem a 3D radiative transfer parameterization in conjunction with high-resolution digital data for city buildings and landscape to improve the simulation of boundary-layer, surface solar fluxes and associated sensible/latent heat fluxes. Preliminary simulated meteorological parameters, fine particles (PM2.5) and their chemical components agree well with observational data in terms of both magnitude and spatio-temporal variations. The effects of anthropogenic aerosols, including BC, on radiative forcing, surface temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud water path, and precipitation are quantified on the basis of simulation results. With several preliminary sensitivity runs, we found that meteorological parameters and aerosol radiative effects simulated with the incorporation of improved BC absorption and 3-D radiation parameterizations deviate substantially from simulation results using the conventional homogeneous/core-shell configuration for BC and the plane-parallel model for radiative transfer. Understanding of the aerosol effects on regional climate change over megacities must consider the complex shape and mixing state of aerosol aggregates and 3D radiative transfer effects over city landscape.

  4. The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Smith

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with HadCM3 were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP to the early industrial era (1850 CE. Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i potential natural vegetation simulated by TRIFFID but no land-use changes, and (ii where the anthropogenic land use model, KK10 (Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011 has been used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations have been run at 1000 year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and S.E. Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June/July/August (JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling by the early industrial period. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ, and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure

  5. Rapid systematic assessment of the detection and attribution of regional anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Dáithí A.; Hansen, Gerrit

    2016-09-01

    Despite being a well-established research field, the detection and attribution of observed climate change to anthropogenic forcing is not yet provided as a climate service. One reason for this is the lack of a methodology for performing tailored detection and attribution assessments on a rapid time scale. Here we develop such an approach, based on the translation of quantitative analysis into the "confidence" language employed in recent Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While its systematic nature necessarily ignores some nuances examined in detailed expert assessments, the approach nevertheless goes beyond most detection and attribution studies in considering contributors to building confidence such as errors in observational data products arising from sparse monitoring networks. When compared against recent expert assessments, the results of this approach closely match those of the existing assessments. Where there are small discrepancies, these variously reflect ambiguities in the details of what is being assessed, reveal nuances or limitations of the expert assessments, or indicate limitations of the accuracy of the sort of systematic approach employed here. Deployment of the method on 116 regional assessments of recent temperature and precipitation changes indicates that existing rules of thumb concerning the detectability of climate change ignore the full range of sources of uncertainty, most particularly the importance of adequate observational monitoring.

  6. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  7. Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIAO; Nian-Zhi; CHEN; Da-Ke; LUO; Yong-Ming; HUANG; Xiao-Ping; ZHANG; Rui; ZHANG; Hai-Bo; JIANG; Zhi-Jian; ZHANG; Fei

    2015-01-01

    The ecosystems of China seas and coasts are undergoing rapid changes under the strong influences of both global climate change and anthropogenic activities.To understand the scope of these changes and the mechanisms behind them is of paramount importance for the sustainable development of China,and for the establishment of national policies on environment protection and climate change mitigation.Here we provide a brief review of the impacts of global climate change and human activities on the oceans in general,and on the ecosystems of China seas and coasts in particular.More importantly,we discuss the challenges we are facing and propose several research foci for China seas/coasts ecosystem studies,including long-term time series observations on multiple scales,facilities for simulation study,blue carbon,coastal ecological security,prediction of ecosystem evolution and ecosystem-based management.We also establish a link to the Future Earth program from the perspectives of two newly formed national alliances,the China Future Ocean Alliance and the Pan-China Ocean Carbon Alliance.

  8. Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nian-Zhi Jiao

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of China seas and coasts are undergoing rapid changes under the strong influences of both global climate change and anthropogenic activities. To understand the scope of these changes and the mechanisms behind them is of paramount importance for the sustainable development of China, and for the establishment of national policies on environment protection and climate change mitigation. Here we provide a brief review of the impacts of global climate change and human activities on the oceans in general, and on the ecosystems of China seas and coasts in particular. More importantly, we discuss the challenges we are facing and propose several research foci for China seas/coasts ecosystem studies, including long-term time series observations on multiple scales, facilities for simulation study, blue carbon, coastal ecological security, prediction of ecosystem evolution and ecosystem-based management. We also establish a link to the Future Earth program from the perspectives of two newly formed national alliances, the China Future Ocean Alliance and the Pan-China Ocean Carbon Alliance.

  9. Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N2) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N2 fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change. - Research Highlights: → Toxic cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten global water supplies. → Human (nutrient) and climate (hydrology, temperature) changes synergistically promote CyanoHABs. → CyanoHAB control involves

  10. Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paerl, Hans W., E-mail: hpaerl@email.unc.edu; Hall, Nathan S.; Calandrino, Elizabeth S.

    2011-04-15

    Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N{sub 2}) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N{sub 2} fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change. - Research Highlights: {yields} Toxic cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten global water supplies. {yields} Human (nutrient) and climate (hydrology, temperature) changes synergistically promote CyanoHABs. {yields

  11. What We Can Say About the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols in Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Ralph

    2016-07-01

    Although particles from natural sources dominate the globally averaged aerosol load, it is widely understood that human activity has added significantly to the atmospheric aerosol inventory in many regions. Anthropogenic contributions include pollution particles from industrial activity, transportation, cook-stoves, and other combustion sources, smoke from agricultural fires and those wildfires that result from land-management practices, soil and mineral dust mobilized in regions where overgrazing, severe tilling, or overuse of surface water resources have occurred, and biogenic particles from vegetation planted and maintained by the populance. The history of human influence is complex - in the 18th and 19th centuries agricultural burning tended to dominate the anthropogenic component in most places, whereas more recently, fossil fuel combustion leads the human contribution is many areas. However, identifying and quantifying the anthropogenic aerosol component on global scales is a challenging endeavor at present. Most estimates of the anthropogenic component come from aerosol transport models that are initialized with aerosol and precursor-gas source locations, emission strengths, and injection heights. The aerosol is then advected based on meteorological modeling, possibly modified chemically or physically, and removed by parameterized wet or dry deposition processes. Aerosol effects on clouds are also represented in some climate models, but with even greater uncertainty than the direct aerosol effects on Earth's radiation balance. Even for present conditions, aerosol source inventories are deduced from whatever constraints can be found, along with much creativity and many assumptions. Aerosol amount (i.e., aerosol optical depth) is routinely measured globally from space, but observational constraints on the anthropogenic component require some knowledge of the aerosol type as well, a much more difficult quantity to derive. As large-swath, multi-spectral, single

  12. The impact of SST biases on projections of anthropogenic climate change: A greater role for atmosphere-only models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jie; Soden, Brian J.

    2016-07-01

    There is large uncertainty in the model simulation of regional climate change from anthropogenic forcing. Recent studies have tried to link such uncertainty to intermodel differences in the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change. On the other hand, coupled climate models also contain systematic biases in their climatology, largely due to drift in SSTs. To the extent that the projected changes depend on the mean state, biases in the present-day climatology also contribute to the intermodel spread in climate change projections. By comparing atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations using the climatological SSTs from different coupled models, we show that biases in the climatological SST generally have a larger impact on regional projections over land than do intermodel differences in the pattern of SST change. These results advocate for a greater application of AGCM simulations with observed SSTs or flux-adjusted coupled models to improve regional projections of anthropogenic climate change.

  13. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L Mann

    Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  14. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change. PMID:27124597

  15. Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paerl, Hans W; Hall, Nathan S; Calandrino, Elizabeth S

    2011-04-15

    Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N(2)) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N(2) fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change.

  16. Signs of critical transition in the Everglades wetlands in response to climate and anthropogenic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foti, Romano; del Jesus, Manuel; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

    2013-04-16

    The increasing pressure of climatic change and anthropogenic activities is predicted to have major effects on ecosystems around the world. With their fragility and sensitivity to hydrologic shifts and land-use changes, wetlands are among the most vulnerable of such ecosystems. Focusing on the Everglades National Park, we here assess the impact of changes in the hydrologic regime, as well as habitat loss, on the spatial configuration of vegetation species. Because the current structuring of vegetation clusters in the Everglades exhibits power-law behavior and such behavior is often associated with self-organization and dynamics occurring near critical transition points, the quantification and prediction of the impact of those changes on the ecosystem is deemed of paramount importance. We implement a robust model able to identify the main hydrologic and local drivers of the vegetation species spatial structuring and apply it for quantitative assessment. We find that shifts in the hydropatterns will mostly affect the relative abundance of species that currently colonize specific hydroperiod niches. Habitat loss or disruption, however, would have a massive impact on all plant communities, which are found to exhibit clear threshold behaviors when a given percentage of habitable habitat is lost. PMID:23576751

  17. Western Pyrenees facing global change: comparison of the effects of climatic and anthropogenic change on water abstractions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the French Western Pyrenees, the trend to the decrease of low water flows that has been observed during the current years should be going on in the future. This may increase the hydric stress on aquatic ecosystems, and the competition among water uses and users for accessing water resources. The research project ANR-VULCAIN compared the impacts of climatic and socio-economic change on the hydro-systems of the French Western Pyrenees. Modeling and participative prospect analysis have been coupled to quantify the evolution of water abstractions under these two types of change. Socio-economic scenarios have been built together with local stakeholders during workshops (urbanism / land planning on the one hand and agriculture on the other hand). Their results have been quantified with the models developed so as to assess anthropogenic change impacts on domestic and agricultural abstractions. In parallel, the agricultural model has been fed with climatic scenarios so as to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural water needs. In the created scenarios, the evolution of agricultural water needs under climate change have a bigger range than the evolution of abstractions for domestic water and agricultural needs under anthropic change, which are the same order of magnitude. To satisfy this evolution, there are some rooms to maneuver: make distribution modalities more efficient, optimize the management of storage capacity, or use substitution resources. This paper presents the approach that has been followed, and some of the main results. (authors)

  18. Teaching Anthropogenic Climate Change through Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Helping Students Think Critically about Science and Ethics in Dialogue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Claire; O'Brien, Kevin J.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is a complicated issue involving scientific data and analyses as well as political, economic, and ethical issues. In order to capture this complexity, we developed an interdisciplinary student and faculty collaboration by (1) offering introductory lectures on scientific and ethical methods to two classes, (2) assigning…

  19. The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

    2016-01-01

    A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models, globally distributed data sets, and complex laboratory and data collection procedures. Here we examine efforts by the scientific community and educational researchers to design new curricula and technology that close this gap and impart robust AGCC and Earth Science understanding. We find technology-based teaching shows promise in promoting robust AGCC understandings if associated curricula address mitigating factors such as time constraints in incorporating technology and the need to support teachers implementing AGCC and Earth Science inquiry. We recommend the scientific community continue to collaborate with educational researchers to focus on developing those inquiry technologies and curricula that use realistic scientific processes from AGCC research and/or the methods for determining how human society should respond to global change.

  20. The climate influence of anthropogenic land-use changes on near-surface wind energy potential in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yan; WANG Yuan; CHU HuiYun; TANG JianPing

    2008-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on wind energy in China. The climate change of near-surface wind energy potential in China under the background of global warming and its association with anthropogenic land-use changes are investigated by calculating the difference in surface wind speeds between the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the observations since the re-analysis dataset contains the influence of large-scale climate changes due to greenhouse gases, it is less sensitive to regional surface processes associated with land types. The surface wind data in this study consist of long-tarm observations from 604 Chinese Roution Meteorological Stations and theNCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1960-1999. The results suggest that the observed mean wind speeds significantly weakened and the near-surface wind power trended downward due to urbanization and other land-use changes in the last 40 years. The mean wind energy weakened by -3.84 W·m-2 per decade due to the influence of anthropogenic land-use change, which is close to the observed climate change (-4.51 W·m-2/10 a).

  1. Anthropogenic footprint of climate change in the June 2013 northern India flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Changrae; Li, Rong; Wang, S.-Y.; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Gillies, Robert R.

    2016-02-01

    During 13-17 June 2013, heavy rainfall occurred in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand and led to one of the worst floods in history and massive landslides, resulting in more than 5000 casualties and a huge loss of property. In this study, meteorological and climatic conditions leading up to this rainfall event in 2013 and similar cases were analyzed for the period of 1979-2012. Attribution analysis was performed to identify the natural and anthropogenic influences on the climate anomalies using the historical single-forcing experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. In addition, regional modeling experiments were carried out to quantify the role of the long-term climate trends in affecting the rainfall magnitude of the June 2013 event. It was found that (a) northern India has experienced increasingly large rainfall in June since the late 1980s, (b) the increase in rainfall appears to be associated with a tendency in the upper troposphere towards amplified short waves, and (c) the phasing of such amplified short waves is tied to increased loading of green-house gases and aerosols. In addition, a regional modeling diagnosis attributed 60-90 % of rainfall amounts in the June 2013 event to post-1980 climate trends.

  2. Indian Ocean Small Island States: Indicators of Dangerous Anthropogenic Influences of Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, W. B.; Heidel, K.; Chung, C.

    2005-12-01

    This study focuses on both the climatic and non-climatic stresses that affect Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Indian Ocean. SIDS are independent developing nations that are located in the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans. For this project four SIDS in the Indian Ocean have been studied: Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius, and the Maldives. A general characteristic of these SIDS is that they have been little studied in the past, they have limited modern infrastructure, and hold the perception that environmental conditions on their islands are worsening at an accelerated pace. These SIDS are all densely populated, with populations per island between 90,000 to 1,200,000. The population growth rate is also high. This study has examined major environmental issues faced by all of these islands, including natural hazards (such as volcanic eruptions,tropical cyclones, and tsunamis), and climate related changes (such as warming, precipitation changes, and sea level rise). Comparisons between impacts of climate change, natural hazards, and population and tourism were made. It was concluded that the Maldives, due to such features as being a very low-lying island group, are now showing effects of climate related changes such as sea level rise, and that in the future it is likely that climatic stresses will compete with population growth as the major stressor on all of the islands.

  3. Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezér, Martin A

    2016-04-01

    To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley's (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd's (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic.

  4. Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezér, Martin A

    2016-04-01

    To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley's (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd's (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic. PMID:27083088

  5. Dynamics in Protected Areas and Domesticated Landscapes Caused by Climate Change and Anthropogenic Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, J.; Ryan, S.; Stampone, M.; Chapman, C.

    2009-12-01

    Climate change, a key factor of concern for conservation, has important biological and social implications. Africa’s Albertine Rift is an area of extremely high endemic biodiversity and is classed as a world conservation priority. However, natural areas are represented by a chain of protected forest areas in a matrix of intensive smallholder agriculture and dense human settlements. Kibale National Park in western Uganda has become an island of forest surrounded by intensive small-scale agriculture and is the only remaining large area of mid-altitude forest remaining in Albertine Rift Region and East Africa. Increased temperature and precipitation over recent decades has been observed by scientists and local farmers, however, to date, rigorous analysis of local climate data and the impact of climate change on local resources does not exist. Moreover, local farmers report that some crops die or ripen too early because of increased precipitation. Conservation biologists and park managers are concerned that changes in tree phenology and primary productivity will alter wildlife feeding preferences and ranges leading to more human-wildlife conflict. Understanding the impact of local and regional climate change and variation within the social, conservation, and geographic context is necessary to construct informed management plans and to maintain positive park-people relationships. This paper describes our first attempt to fully integrate multiple temporal and spatial datasets, and our progress in developing an interdisciplinary framework to study social and ecological relationships in the Kibale landscape. We examine historical in situ climate data and proxy climate information derived from remotely sensed satellite-borne imagery in our preliminary analyses. Our goal is to link these data with both pre-existing imagery analyses and tree community composition and phenology data from 39 years of ongoing research to identify the pattern, trajectory, and drivers of local

  6. Climate effects of land use changes and anthropogenic impact on surface radiation

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The fourth assessment report on climate change (AR4) was released in 2007 and the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) derive an increase of 0.74 ± 0.18°C in the 100 year global mean surface temperature linear trend between 1906 – 2005. IPCC state further that “there is very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming” (IPCC, 2007). The observed global warming has occurred during the same period as a considerable increa...

  7. Sensitivity of aquatic ecosystems to climatic and anthropogenic changes: The basin and range, American Southwest and Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, N. B.; Chacon, A.; Dahm, Clifford N.; Hostetler, S.W.; Lind, O.T.; Starkweather, P.L.; Wurtsbaugh, W.W.

    1997-01-01

    Variability and unpredictability are characteristics of the aquatic ecosystems, hydrological patterns and climate of the largely dryland region that encompasses the Basin and Range, American Southwest and western Mexico. Neither hydrological nor climatological models for the region are sufficiently developed to describe the magnitude or direction of change in response to increased carbon dioxide; thus, an attempt to predict specific responses of aquatic ecosystems is premature. Instead, we focus on the sensitivity of rivers, streams, springs, wetlands, reservoirs, and lakes of the region to potential changes in climate, especially those inducing a change in hydrological patterns such as amount, timing and predictability of stream flow. The major sensitivities of aquatic ecosystems are their permanence and even existence in the face of potential reduced net basin supply of water, stability of geomorphological structure and riparian ecotones with alterations in disturbance regimes, and water quality changes resulting from a modified water balance. In all of these respects, aquatic ecosystems of the region are also sensitive to the extensive modifications imposed by human use of water resources, which underscores the difficulty of separating this type of anthropogenic change from climate change. We advocate a focus in future research on reconstruction and analysis of past climates and associated ecosystem characteristics, long-term studies to discriminate directional change vs. year to year variability (including evidence of aquatic ecosystem responses or sensitivity to extremes), and studies of ecosystems affected by human activity. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Environmental tasks of anthropogenic actions and climatic changes in pozo del Molle, Cordoba Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work was made in Pozo del Molle town, Rio Segundo, Cordoba. Argentina. The human impact added to climate changes, mainly the increase of precipitations, affects negatively in the environmental problems. In the area, in the last years, the problems that lead to the degradation of the environment were accentuated. The disposition of the final waste disposal has been determined through the following studies: analysis of the geological conditions of the area, consideration of the climatic situation, and the elevation and contamination the phreatic. Also an analysis about the rate of the habitant/day solid residual generation, the distance between the site where is located the urban solid residues and the town, the predominant winds and the vulnerability of the phreatic, which represents the greatest problem of the area, was made. It has been established the alternatives to carry out an appropriate environmental administration. Key words: human impact, climatic changes, environmental problems, phreatic, Pozo del Molle (Argentina). (author)

  9. Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T

    2016-06-01

    The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27123575

  10. Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milano, Marianne; Reynard, Emmanuel; Köplin, Nina; Weingartner, Rolf

    2015-12-01

    Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues.

  11. From urban to national heat island: The effect of anthropogenic heat output on climate change in high population industrial countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, John; Heggie, Douglas

    2016-06-01

    The project presented here sought to determine whether changes in anthropogenic thermal emission can have a measurable effect on temperature at the national level, taking Japan and Great Britain as type examples. Using energy consumption as a proxy for thermal emission, strong correlations (mean r2 = 0.90 and 0.89, respectively) are found between national equivalent heat output (HO) and temperature above background levels Δt averaged over 5- to 8-yr periods between 1965 and 2013, as opposed to weaker correlations for CMIP5 model temperatures above background levels Δmt (mean r2 = 0.52 and 0.10). It is clear that the fluctuations in Δt are better explained by energy consumption than by present climate models, and that energy consumption can contribute to climate change at the national level on these timescales.

  12. Environmental changes, climate and anthropogenic impact in south-east Tunisia during the last 8 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaouadi, Sahbi; Lebreton, Vincent; Bout-Roumazeilles, Viviane; Siani, Giuseppe; Lakhdar, Rached; Boussoffara, Ridha; Dezileau, Laurent; Kallel, Nejib; Mannai-Tayech, Beya; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

    2016-06-01

    Pollen and clay mineralogical analyses of a Holocene sequence from Sebkha Boujmel (southern Tunisia) trace the climatic and environmental dynamics in the lower arid bioclimatic zone over the last 8000 years. During the mid- to late Holocene transition, between ca. 8 and 3 ka BP, a succession of five wet-dry oscillations is recorded. An intense arid event occurs between ca. 5.7 and 4.6 ka BP. This episode marks the onset of a long-term aridification trend with a progressive retreat of Mediterranean woody xerophytic vegetation and of grass steppes. It ends with the establishment of pre-desert ecosystems around 3 ka BP. The millennial-scale climate change recorded in the data from Sebkha Boujmel is consistent with records from the south and east Mediterranean, as well as with climatic records from the desert region for the end of the African Humid Period (AHP). Eight centennial climatic events are recorded at Sebkha Boujmel and these are contemporary with those recorded in the Mediterranean and in the Sahara. They indicate a clear coupling between the southern Mediterranean and the Sahara before 3 ka BP. The event at 4.2 ka BP is not evidenced and the link between events recorded in Sebkha Boujmel and the North Atlantic cooling events is clearer from ca. 3 ka BP onwards. These variations indicate the importance of climatic determinism in the structuring of landscapes, with the establishment of the arid climatic conditions of the late Holocene. It is only from ca. 3 ka BP onwards that the dynamic of plant associations is modified by both human activity and climatic variability. The climatic episodes identified during the historic period indicate strong regionalisation related to the differential impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) on the Mediterranean Basin. The local human impact on regional ecosystems is recorded in the form of episodes of intensification of pastoral and/or agricultural activities. The development of

  13. The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere (also referred to as negative emissions) has been proposed as a means to restore the climate system to a desirable state, should the impacts of climate change become ‘dangerous’. Here we explore whether negative emissions are indeed effective in reversing climate change on human timescales, given the potentially counteracting effect of natural carbon sinks and the inertia of the climate system. We designed a range of CO2 emission scenarios, which follow a gradual transition to a zero-carbon energy system and entail implementation of various amounts of net-negative emissions at technologically plausible rates. These scenarios are used to force an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity. Results suggest that while it is possible to revert to a desired level of warming (e.g. 2 °C above pre-industrial) after different levels of overshoot, thermosteric sea level rise is not reversible for at least several centuries, even under assumption of large amounts of negative CO2 emissions. During the net-negative emission phase, artificial CO2 removal is opposed by CO2 outgassing from natural carbon sinks, with the efficiency of CO2 removal—here defined as the drop in atmospheric CO2 per unit negative emission—decreasing with the total amount of negative emissions. (letter)

  14. Global surface water quality hotspots under climate change and anthropogenic developments

    OpenAIRE

    Vliet, M. van; J. R. Yearsley

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, freshwater usage for various sectors (e.g. agriculture, industry, energy and domestic) has more than doubled. A growing global population will place further demands on water supplies, whereas the availability and quality of water resources will be affected by climate change and human impacts. These developments will increase imbalances between fresh water demand and supply in terms of both water quantity and water quality. Here we discuss a methodology to identify regi...

  15. Long term prospective of the Seine River system: Confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To explore the evolution of a human impacted river, the Seine (France), over the 21st century, three driving factors were examined: climate, agriculture, and point source inputs of domestic and industrial origin. Three future scenarios were constructed, by modification of a baseline representative of recent conditions. A climate change scenario, based on simulations by a general circulation model driven by the SRES-A2 scenario of radiative forcing, accounts for an average warming of + 3.3 deg. C over the watershed and marked winter increase and summer decrease in precipitation. To illustrate a possible reduction in nitrate pollution from agricultural origin, a scenario of good agricultural practices was considered, introducing catch crops and a 20% decrease in nitrogen fertilisation. Future point source pollution was estimated following the assumptions embedded in scenario SRES-A2 regarding demographic, economic and technologic changes, leading to reductions of 30 to 75% compared to 2000, depending on the pollutants. Four models, addressing separate components of the river system (agronomical model, hydrogeological model, land surface model and water quality model), were used to analyse the relative impact of these scenarios on water quality, in light of their impact on hydrology and crop production. The first-order driving factor of water quality over the 21st century is the projected reduction of point source pollution, inducing a noticeable decrease in eutrophication and oxygen deficits downstream from Paris. The impact of climate change on these terms is driven by the warming of the water column. It enhances algal growth in spring and the loss factors responsible for phytoplankton mortality in late summer (grazers and viruses). In contrast, increased seasonal contrasts in river discharge have a negligible impact on river water quality, as do the changes in riverine nitrate concentration, which never gets limiting. The latter changes have a similar magnitude

  16. Impact of climate change and anthropogenic pressure on the water resources of India: challenges in management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadananan Nair, K.

    2016-10-01

    Freshwater resources of India are getting fast degraded and depleted from the changing climate and pressure of fast rising population. Changing intensity and seasonality of rainfall affect quantity and quality of water. Most of the rivers are polluted far above safety limits from the untreated domestic, industrial and agricultural effluents. Changes in the intensity, frequency and tracks of storms salinate coastal aquifers. Aquifers are also under the threat from rising sea level. Groundwater in urban limits and industrial zones are far beyond safety limits. Large-scale destruction of wetlands for industries and residential complexes has affected the quality of surface and groundwater resources in most parts of India. Measures to maintain food security and the new developments schemes such as river linking will further deteriorate the water resources. Falling water availability leads to serious health issues and various socio-economic issues. India needs urgent and appropriate adaptation strategies in the water sector.

  17. Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryghaug, Marianne; Sørensen, Knut Holtan; Naess, Robert

    2011-11-01

    This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics.

  18. Climatic impacts of anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iversen, T. [Oslo Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. Anthropogenic production of aerosols is mainly connected with combustion of fossil fuel. Measured by particulate mass, the anthropogenic sulphate production is the dominating source of aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere. Particles emitted in mechanical processes, fly ash etc. are less important because of their shorter atmospheric residence time. Possible climatological effects of anthropogenic aerosols are usually classified in two groups: direct and indirect. Direct effects are alterations of the radiative heating budget due to the aerosol particles in clear air. Indirect effects involve the interaction between particles and cloud processes. A simplified one-layer radiation model gave cooling in the most polluted mid-latitude areas and heating due to soot absorption in the Arctic. This differential trend in heating rates may have significant effects on atmospheric meridional circulations, which is important for the atmosphere as a thermodynamic system. Recently the description of sulphur chemistry in the hemispheric scale dispersion model has been improved and will be used in a model for Mie scattering and absorption

  19. Late Holocene climate: Natural or anthropogenic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruddiman, W. F.; Fuller, D. Q.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Tzedakis, P. C.; Kaplan, J. O.; Ellis, E. C.; Vavrus, S. J.; Roberts, C. N.; Fyfe, R.; He, F.; Lemmen, C.; Woodbridge, J.

    2016-03-01

    For more than a decade, scientists have argued about the warmth of the current interglaciation. Was the warmth of the preindustrial late Holocene natural in origin, the result of orbital changes that had not yet driven the system into a new glacial state? Or was it in considerable degree the result of humans intervening in the climate system through greenhouse gas emissions from early agriculture? Here we summarize new evidence that moves this debate forward by testing both hypotheses. By comparing late Holocene responses to those that occurred during previous interglaciations (in section 2), we assess whether the late Holocene responses look different (and thus anthropogenic) or similar (and thus natural). This comparison reveals anomalous (anthropogenic) signals. In section 3, we review paleoecological and archaeological syntheses that provide ground truth evidence on early anthropogenic releases of greenhouse gases. The available data document large early anthropogenic emissions consistent with the anthropogenic ice core anomalies, but more information is needed to constrain their size. A final section compares natural and anthropogenic interpretations of the δ13C trend in ice core CO2.

  20. Water supply sustainability and adaptation strategies under anthropogenic and climatic changes of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Lila; Ruelland, Denis; Estupina, Valérie Borrell; Dezetter, Alain; Servat, Eric

    2015-12-01

    stronger. The environmental sector would be hardly satisfied especially in summer with low resilience levels. The adaptation strategies considered in this study would not be sufficient to cope with both anthropogenic and climate changes. Other strategies were discussed based on known examples in the Mediterranean context. PMID:26247688

  1. Water supply sustainability and adaptation strategies under anthropogenic and climatic changes of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Lila; Ruelland, Denis; Estupina, Valérie Borrell; Dezetter, Alain; Servat, Eric

    2015-12-01

    stronger. The environmental sector would be hardly satisfied especially in summer with low resilience levels. The adaptation strategies considered in this study would not be sufficient to cope with both anthropogenic and climate changes. Other strategies were discussed based on known examples in the Mediterranean context.

  2. Anthropogenic impacts on an oyster metapopulation: Pathogen introduction, climate change and responses to natural selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bushek

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Humans rely on marine ecosystems for a variety of services but often impact these ecosystems directly or indirectly limiting their capacity to provide such services. One growing impact is the emergence of marine disease. We present results from a unique case study examining how oysters, a dominant organism in many coastal bays and estuaries that is often harvested for food, have responded to pathogens influenced by human activities, namely the introduction of novel pathogens. Climate change has enabled a northward spread and establishment of Dermo disease in oysters along the eastern seaboard of North America and human activities inadvertently introduced MSX disease along this same coast. Oysters in Delaware Bay have responded differently to each pathogen, and uniquely to MSX disease by developing a highly resistant baywide population not documented in any other bay. Offspring were produced using parents collected from low or high disease (MSX and Dermo regions of Delaware Bay and exposed in a common garden experiment along with a naïve population from Maine. Results indicated widespread resistance to MSX disease, but not to Dermo disease, across Delaware Bay. One striking result was the demonstration of resilience in the population through its capacity to spread, presumably through larval transport, resistance to MSX disease into portions of the population that have experienced little to no MSX disease pressure themselves. Related studies indicated that larval transport mechanisms allowed widespread dispersal such that the entire metapopulation could acquire a high level of resistance over time if disease resistance is sufficiently heritable. The findings have implications for restoration, management and recovery of diseased populations. Namely, that if left to their own devices, natural selection may find a solution that enables populations to recover from introduced pathogens.

  3. Holocene environmental and parasequence development of the St. Jones Estuary, Delaware (USA): Foraminiferal proxies of natural climatic and anthropogenic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leorri, E.; Martin, R.; McLaughlin, P.

    2006-01-01

    The benthic foraminiferal record of marshes located along western Delaware Bay (St. Jones Estuary, USA) reflects the response of estuaries to sea-level and paleoclimate change during the Holocene. System tracts are recognized and within them parasequences based on sedimentological and foraminiferal assemblages identification. The parasequences defined by foraminiferal assemblages appear correlative with rapid Holocene climate changes that are of worldwide significance: 6000-5000, 4200-3800, 3500-2500, 1200-1000, and 600??cal years BP. Following postglacial sea-level rise, modern subestuaries and marshes in the region began to develop between 6000 and 4000??years BP, depending on their proximity to the mouth of Delaware Bay and coastal geomorphology. Initial sediments were fluvial in origin, with freshwater marshes established around 4000??years BP. The subsequent sea-level transgression occurred sufficiently slowly that freshwater marshes alternated with salt marshes at the same sites to around 3000??years BP. Locally another two transgressions are identified at 1800 and 1000??years BP respectively. Marine influence increased in the estuaries until 600??years BP (Little Ice Age), when regression occurred. Sea-level began to rise again during the mid-19th Century at the end of the Little Ice Age, when marshes became established. The presence of a sand lens in the upper and middle estuary and the reduction in the number of tests in the top samples in cores from the same area also suggest an anthropogenic influence. The estuary infill resulted in a sharp transgressive sequence, represented by salt marsh foraminiferal assemblages in the upper part of the cores. The increase in marsh foraminifera in both areas suggests an increase in marine influence that might be due to the transgression beginning at the end of the Little Ice Age about 150-180??years ago coupled with anthropogenic straightening of the channel in 1913. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Climate data, analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Philip D. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-31

    Gridded Temperature Under prior/current support, we completed and published (Jones et al., 2012) the fourth major update to our global land dataset of near-surface air temperatures, CRUTEM4. This is one of the most widely used records of the climate system, having been updated, maintained and further developed with DoE support since the 1980s. We have continued to update the CRUTEM4 (Jones et al., 2012) database that is combined with marine data to produce HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012). The emphasis in our use of station temperature data is to access as many land series that have been homogenized by National Meteorological Services (NMSs, including NCDC/NOAA, Asheville, NC). Unlike the three US groups monitoring surface temperatures in a similar way, we do not infill areas that have no or missing data. We can only infill such regions in CRUTEM4 by accessing more station temperature series. During early 2014, we have begun the extensive task of updating as many of these series as possible using data provided by some NMSs and also through a number of research projects and programs around the world. All the station data used in CRUTEM4 have been available since 2009, but in Osborn and Jones (2014) we have made this more usable using a Google Earth interface (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/crutem/ge/ ). We have recently completed the update of our infilled land multi-variable dataset (CRU TS 3.10, Harris et al., 2014). This additionally produces complete land fields (except for the Antarctic) for temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, vapour pressure and sunshine/cloud. Using this dataset we have calculated sc-PDSI (self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index) data and compared with other PDSI datasets (Trenberth et al., 2014). Also using CRU TS 3.10 and Reanalysis datasets, we showed no overall increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns (Huntingford et al., 2013). Harris et al. (2014) is an update of an earlier

  5. Climate Model Tests Of Anthropogenic Influence On Greenhouse-Induced Climate Change: The Role Of Plant Physiology Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philippon, G.; Vavrus, S.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.

    2008-12-01

    We use the NCAR's Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) forced by greenhouse gas concentrations that are lower than nominal pre-industrial (~1750 AD) levels and instead based on natural levels that were reached in similar stages of previous interglaciations. The aim is to test the plant physiology feedback from the vegetation model with the coupled atmosphere-slab ocean configuration at a moderate resolution (T42). According to previous modeling work allowing interactive vegetation but no physiology feedback, the response of this model to lowered greenhouse gases is a global cooling of about 3 K and an expansion of arctic snow area, resulting from an arctic desert expansion and a decrease mainly of boreal trees and also tundra. We focus on the comparison of two experiments with both the vegetation feedbacks (interactive vegetation) but one with no plant physiology feedback (NOANTHRO_VEG) and the other with plant physiology feedback (PHYSIO). The physiology feedback produces an even cooler northern hemisphere high latitude climate, about -0.5 K on average. But the land winter temperature difference can reach 2 K near the northern pole. Furthermore, the physiology feedback amplifies the decrease of boreal tree cover in high latitudes and the tundra area in many places except on the southern limit (South-west and south-east Russia and south-east Canada), where the tundra is increasing. Viewed from the perspective of explaining the unusual late-Holocene increases of CO2 that occurred prior to the Industrial Revolution, these simulated changes in the vegetation support the hypothesis that early agriculture played a role in initiating anomalous warming that thwarted incipient glaciation beginning several thousand years ago. In this work, we will show the impact of the vegetation feedback and the physiology effect on the climate.

  6. Recent and Future Anthropogenic Land-Cover Change in the United States and Its Impact on Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Liu, J.; Zhu, Z.; Barnes, C. A.; Sherba, J.

    2014-12-01

    Forestry, cultivation, and urbanization result in distinct changes in land-cover, which in turn affect biogeochemical and biogeophysical process. Due to the nature of each type of land conversion, the associated climate forcing response may range from short to long-term, with some persisting for decades or longer. To understand how anthropogenic land cover change may impact the climate system in the future, projections are often developed based on an overarching scenario framework. An increasingly expanding set of land-use change scenarios has been developed to assess global environmental change under a range of alternative storylines. However, utilizing these frameworks at local to regional scales needed for environmental management is problematic due to their coarse spatial and (often) thematic resolution. We have developed techniques to extend global change projections to ecoregions of the conterminous United States, while maintaining coherence at global and local scales. We present a comparison of 1) scenario frameworks, and 2) scenario downscaling methods, and the effect each has on the composition of land-cover over the 21st century. Second, we demonstrate how historical and future projections of land-cover change impact at the regional scale 1) the capacity of ecosystems to store and sequester carbon, and 2) land-cover albedo induced changes to surface radiative forcing. Downscaled projections for IPCC SRES scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways were developed along with business-as-usual scenarios based on local scale land-use histories. Three downscaling techniques were explored, where coarse-scale gridded data (half-degree) was allocated to ecoregions based on 1) an area weighting method, 2) land-cover composition, and 3) land-use histories. Each resulting scenario was then simulated using stochastic Monte Carlo methods within a state and transition simulation model. In addition to land-cover change, we also tracked changes across a range of

  7. Climate data, analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Philip D. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-31

    Gridded Temperature Under prior/current support, we completed and published (Jones et al., 2012) the fourth major update to our global land dataset of near-surface air temperatures, CRUTEM4. This is one of the most widely used records of the climate system, having been updated, maintained and further developed with DoE support since the 1980s. We have continued to update the CRUTEM4 (Jones et al., 2012) database that is combined with marine data to produce HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012). The emphasis in our use of station temperature data is to access as many land series that have been homogenized by National Meteorological Services (NMSs, including NCDC/NOAA, Asheville, NC). Unlike the three US groups monitoring surface temperatures in a similar way, we do not infill areas that have no or missing data. We can only infill such regions in CRUTEM4 by accessing more station temperature series. During early 2014, we have begun the extensive task of updating as many of these series as possible using data provided by some NMSs and also through a number of research projects and programs around the world. All the station data used in CRUTEM4 have been available since 2009, but in Osborn and Jones (2014) we have made this more usable using a Google Earth interface (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/crutem/ge/ ). We have recently completed the update of our infilled land multi-variable dataset (CRU TS 3.10, Harris et al., 2014). This additionally produces complete land fields (except for the Antarctic) for temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, vapour pressure and sunshine/cloud. Using this dataset we have calculated sc-PDSI (self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index) data and compared with other PDSI datasets (Trenberth et al., 2014). Also using CRU TS 3.10 and Reanalysis datasets, we showed no overall increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns (Huntingford et al., 2013). Harris et al. (2014) is an update of an earlier

  8. Climatic and anthropogenic factors changing spawning pattern and production zone of Hilsa fishery in the Bay of Bengal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shohidullah Miah

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha Hamilton as a single species accounts 12% for more than half of the total marine catches. About 2% of the entire population of the country is directly or indirectly engaged with Hilsa fishing. Hilsa has a wide geographical distribution in Asia from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea. Particularly large stocks are found in Upper Bay of Bengal (BoB region sustained by the large river systems. The global Hilsa catch is reported 75% from Bangladesh water, 15% from Myanmar, 5% from India and 5% from other countries such as Thailand and Iran. Hilsa is a highly migratory and anadromous fish with the same migratory and same breeding behavior as that of Atlantic Salmon fish (Salmo sp.. Due to various anthropogenic activities, climate change effect, increased siltation and rising of the river basins, the migratory routes as well as spawning grounds of Hilsa are disturbed, displaced or even destroyed. During last two decades hilsa production from inland water declined about 20%, whereas marine water yield increased about 3 times. Major Hilsa to catch has been gradually shifted from inland to marine water. Hilsa fish ascend for spawning migration from sea into estuaries. It has been found that the major spawning areas have been shifted to the lower estuarine regions of Hatia, Sandwip and Bhola. At the spawning ground of Hilsa, the fishing level F=1.36 yr−1, where in the river Meghna the Fmsy=0.6 yr−1 and exploitation rate E=0.70 is (Emsy>0.5. Oceanographic changes viz. high turbidity increased flooding, more tidal action and changes of salinity etc. have accelerated the change of migration patterns of spawning, growth and its production. Hilsa fecundity ranges from 1.5 to 2.0 million eggs for fish ranging in length from 35 to 50 cm. Hilsa fecundity is declining in different areas due to climate change and the declining fecundity impacting greatly on Hilsa production. Due to shifting of the spawning ground at the lower

  9. The Arctic Sea ice in the CMIP3 climate model ensemble – variability and anthropogenic change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. K. Behrens

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The strongest manifestation of global warming is observed in the Arctic. The warming in the Arctic during the recent decades is about twice as strong as in the global average and has been accompanied by a summer sea ice decline that is very likely unprecedented during the last millennium. Here, Arctic sea ice variability is analyzed in the ensemble of CMIP3 models. Complementary to several previous studies, we focus on regional aspects, in particular on the Barents Sea. We also investigate the changes in the seasonal cycle and interannual variability. In all regions, the models predict a reduction in sea ice area and sea ice volume during 1900–2100. Toward the end of the 21st century, the models simulate higher sea ice area variability in September than in March, whereas the variability in the preindustrial control runs is higher in March. Furthermore, the amplitude and phase of the sea ice seasonal cycle change in response to enhanced greenhouse warming. The amplitude of the sea ice area seasonal cycle increases due to the very strong sea ice area decline in September. The seasonal cycle amplitude of the sea ice volume decreases due to the stronger reduction of sea ice volume in March.

    Multi-model mean estimates for the late 20th century are comparable with observational data only for the entire Arctic and the Central Arctic. In the Barents Sea, differences between the multi-model mean and the observational data are more pronounced. Regional sea ice sensitivity to Northern Hemisphere average surface warming has been investigated.

  10. Spectral characteristics and feature selection of satellite remote sensing data for climate and anthropogenic changes assessment in Bucharest area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria; Savastru, Roxana; Savastru, Dan; Tautan, Marina; Miclos, Sorin; Cristescu, Luminita; Carstea, Elfrida; Baschir, Laurentiu

    2010-05-01

    was suggested. On the basis of analyzing the information quantity of bands, correlation between different bands, spectral absorption characteristics of objects and object separability in bands, a fundamental method of optimum band selection and feature extraction from remote sensing data was discussed. Spectral signatures of different terrain features have been used to extract structural patterns aiming to separate surface units and to classify the general categories. The synergetic analysis and interpretation of the different satellite images (LANDSAT: TM, ETM; MODIS, IKONOS) acquired over a period of more than 20 years reveals significant aspects regarding impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes on urban/periurban environment. It was delimited residential zones of industrial zones which are very often a source of pollution. An important role has urban green cover assessment. Have been emphasized the particularities of the functional zones from different points of view: architectural, streets and urban surface traffic, some components of urban infrastructure as well as habitat quality. The growth of Bucharest urban area in Romania has been a result of a rapid process of industrialization, and also of the increase of urban population. Information on the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of land cover and land use of urban areas is critical to address a wide range of practical problems relating to urban regeneration, urban sustainability and rational planning policy.

  11. A first look at the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the future delivery of fluvial sediment to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, Stephen E; Dunn, Frances E; Nicholls, Robert J; Rahman, Munsur; Riddy, Liam

    2015-09-01

    We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) mega-delta. The model was parameterised using high-quality topographic data and forced with daily temperature and precipitation data obtained from downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the period 1971-2100. Three perturbed RCM model runs were selected to quantify the potential range of future climate conditions associated with the SRES A1B scenario. Fluvial sediment delivery rates to the GBM delta associated with these climate data sets are projected to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, albeit with the magnitude of the increase varying across the two catchments. Of the two study basins, the Brahmaputra's fluvial sediment load is predicted to be more sensitive to future climate change. Specifically, by the middle part of the 21(st) century, our model results suggest that sediment loads increase (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline period) over a range of between 16% and 18% (depending on climate model run) for the Ganges, but by between 25% and 28% for the Brahmaputra. The simulated increase in sediment flux emanating from the two catchments further increases towards the end of the 21(st) century, reaching between 34% and 37% for the Ganges and between 52% and 60% for the Brahmaputra by the 2090s. The variability in these changes across the three climate change simulations is small compared to the changes, suggesting they represent a significant increase. The new data obtained in this study offer the first estimate of whether and how anthropogenic climate change may affect the delivery of fluvial sediment to the GBM delta, informing assessments of the future sustainability and resilience of one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas. Specifically, such significant increases in future sediment loads could increase the resilience

  12. An inquiry into the relationships among science, policy and the public: the case of anthropogenic climate change; Betrachtung des Verhaeltnisses zwischen Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit am Beispiel der Diskussion um anthropogene Klimaaenderungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rau, S. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

    2001-07-01

    This thesis present an analysis of qualitative interviews with experts in the field of climate research in which the relation among science, policy and public is discussed. To begin, an overview of the methods and results of climate science is presented. Following, elements of the discourse among science, policy and public are presented in a manner that demonstrates the different ways to look at the problem of anthropogenic climate change. Subsequently, approaches of the sociology of science are introduced in which science is examined as a social process. Here the question is raised up to what extent climate research has taken a problem oriented perspective in which social and political criteria in the treatment of actual risks of global change are taken into account. The results of the analysis indicate that uncertainties in science led to different perspectives regarding the risks of anthropogenic climate change. In this way scientific knowledge itself becomes problematic. Communication of scientific results to policy and public poses a process which is stamped by individual values and preferences. This suggests the possibility that recognition of theories is increasingly determined by extra scientific criteria like resonance in the media and possibility of connection for political measures. (orig.) [German] In dieser Arbeit wird eine Analyse qualitativer Interviews mit Klimaforschern vorgestellt, in denen das Verhaeltnis von Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit diskutiert wird. In einem ersten Schritt wird ein Ueberblick gegeben ueber Methoden und Ergebnisse der gegenwaertigen Klimaforschung. Anschliessend werden Elemente des Diskurses zwischen Wissenschaft, Politik und Oeffentlichkeit dargestellt, die unterschiedliche Selektionsmuster der Problematik um anthropogene Klimaaenderungen verdeutlichen. Hiervon ausgehend werden Ansaetze der Wissenschaftssoziologie vorgestellt, mit denen Wissenschaft als sozialer Prozess analysiert wird. Hierbei wird die Frage

  13. Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. G. Streets

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2, nitrate (−0.2 W m−2, organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2, and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2. The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect, mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  14. Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

    2012-01-01

    We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  15. Current macroclimatic changes: Anthropogenic influences and their repercussion in the climate system; Grossraeumige aktuelle Klimaaenderungen: Anthropogene Eingriffe und ihre Rueckwirkungen im Klimasystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flohn, H.

    1994-01-01

    On following the macroscopic development of meteorological events and the climate in general on the basis of available observations from the past few decades one obtains the impression that we are in a phase of climatic change which set in around 1965. This change is characterised by an increased frequency and intensity of weather extremes, increase in wind and water vapour, and a stronger circulation within the atmosphere and oceans. These simple observations hardly lend themselves to drawing predictive conclusions. The only dependable indicator here is the thermal capacity of the oceans which points to a contimation of this development for the next 20-30 years. Meanwhile we have the first results obtained on advanced climate models which take full account of the interactions of atmospheric and oceanic processes. Without such realistic models (which have now also been verified with empirical data) any attempt to look into the future must remain speculative. As long as the processes involved remain deterministic and we neglect the risk of a chaotic development of our strongly non-linear climate system there is good reason to hope that it will possible to solve the forecasting problem for the present era. (orig./KW) [Deutsch] Verfolgt man die Entwicklung des grossraeumigen Wetterablaufs und des Klimas in den letzten jahrzehnten anhand der verfuegbaren Beobachtungen, so ergibt sich - seit etwa 1965 - der Eindruck einer Phase der Klima-Umstellung. Zunahme der Haeufigkeit und Intensitaet von Wetterextremen, Zunahme von Wind und Wasserdampf, Verstaerkung der Zirkulation von Atmosphaere und Ozean. Aus diesen nuechternen Beobachtungen lassen sich nur wenige Folgerungen prognostischer Art ziehen - einzig die Waerme-Speicherkapazitaet des Ozeans spricht fuer eine Fortdauer dieser Entwicklung in den naechsten 20-30 Jahresn. Inzwischen liegen erste Ergebnisse von fortgeschrittenen Klima-Modellen vor, die die Vorgaenge in Atmosphaere und Ozean in ihrer Wechselwirkung voll

  16. Natural aerosol–climate feedbacks suppressed by anthropogenic aerosol

    OpenAIRE

    Spracklen, DV; A. Rap

    2013-01-01

    The natural environment is an important source of atmospheric aerosol such as dust, sea spray, and wildfire smoke. Climate controls many of these natural aerosol sources, which, in turn, can alter climate through changing the properties of clouds and the Earth's radiative balance. However, the Earth's atmosphere is now heavily modified by anthropogenic pollution aerosol, but how this pollution may alter these natural aerosol–climate feedbacks has not been previously explored. Here we use a gl...

  17. Using pollen data to distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic driven landscape change in south-western Turkey, and its implications for understanding sediment dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Johan; Verstraeten, Gert; Kaniewski, David; Paulissen, Etienne; Dusar, Bert; D'Haen, Koen; Waelkens, Marc

    2010-05-01

    Sediment dynamics during the Holocene are mainly controlled by either climate change or human impact, as is evidenced by numerous field studies. In order to identify the relative importance of climate or human impact, it is foremost vital to have a good idea about the intensity of these driving forces. Within the territory of the ancient city of Sagalassos, located in the Taurus mountain range in SW Turkey, interdisciplinary research including geomorphology, palynology and archaeology, has shown that sediment dynamics were important during the Hellenistic-Roman period. During this period the region also underwent intensification in crop cultivation and arboriculture, resulting in the destruction of the natural forest ecosystem and an extensive spread of forest steppe in the highlands. Although minor climatic changes did occur during this period, human impact was more important for controlling geomorphic processes. Less is known about the period following the decline of Roman presence in the region and the extent of climatic and anthropogenic influences on the region during this period. Here we present the results of a study performed in the Gravgaz marsh, located at an elevation of 1215 m, near the archaeological site of Sagalassos. A numerical approach enabled the creation of a pollen-derived climatic proxy. With this proxy it is possible to determine whether shifts in local and regional vegetation may be attributed to changes in human presence or climatic changes. Additionally, it is possible to determine which factors influence the vegetation when changes in the climate and in human occupation coincide. Results show a succession of sudden vegetation changes that coincided with well-defined European climate shifts occurring from the end of the Hellenistic-Roman period to the present, including the medieval climate anomaly and the Little Ice age. The results also show the occurrence of two distinct periods without signs of agriculture in the region. The geomorphic

  18. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  19. Analysis of climatic and anthropogenic changes effects on spectral vegetation indices in forest areas derived from satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, M. A.

    2010-05-01

    Multifunctional role of forest is revealed by: short and long-term responses and reactions to a fast changing environment, forest being able to provide ecological and social services, to assure a forest-wood chain that meet the needs for forest based goods and products. Forest vegetation cover characteristics, including land cover and phenology, affect processes such as water cycle, absorption and re-emission of solar radiation, momentum transfer, carbon cycle, and latent and sensible heat fluxes.The climate system responds in complex ways to changes in forcing that may be natural or humaninduced. Drastic climate change over the last two decades has greatly increased the importance of global environmental study. In frame of this research, forest changes monitoring through satellite remote sensing can continually observe various surface processes playing an increasingly important role in large-scale environmental monitoring. Thresholding based on biophysical variables derived from time trajectories of satellite data is a new approach to classifying forest land cover changes. The input data are composite values of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Fusion technique was applied to Landsat TM, LANDSAT ETM, and IKONOS imagery for a forested area, Cernica, placed at the North Eastern part of Bucharest town, Romania, over a period 1989-2007. Specific aim of this paper is to assess, forecast, and mitigate the risks of climatic changes on forest systems.

  20. Erosion response to anthropogenic activity and climatic changes during the Holocene:case studies in northwestern China and southern Norway

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Soil erosion assessment and prediction play critical roles in addressing problems associatedwith erosion control or soil conservation. The past dynamics of soil erosion can provide valuableinformation for us to understand the relations of soil erosion to environmental change andanthropogenic activity. The present paper has compared Holocene climatic changes in northwesternChina with those in southern Norway, and investigated the past dynamics of erosion activity duringthe Holocene. Modem soil erosion on the Loess Plateau is a combinafon of the intensive naturalerosion and human-induced erosion, the latter being four times greater than the former. Because ofglobal warming and increasing human activities, climate on the Loess Plateau is becoming dryer andmore unstable, causing an enhanced erosion problem and water scarcity. In the arctic-alpine region ofsouthern Norway, however, the global wanning and regional wetting caused expansion of the largestEuropean ice cap. This has accentuated the erosion in that region, with a higher frequency ofavalanches and debris flows.

  1. The effects of fishing, climate change, and other anthropogenic disturbances on red grouper and other reef fishes in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

    2010-08-01

    In this article, we consider the potential effects of anthropogenic disturbances on marine fish species known or suspected to be habitat engineers. The three species of interest inhabit different marine habitats at different life stages, and therefore can have significant influences across the sea floor at broad spatial scales. The primary species include the shallow-water Atlantic goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara), which inhabits mangrove root systems as juveniles, and caves, shipwrecks, and rocky reefs as adults; red grouper (E. morio), which excavates habitat throughout its benthic life in Karst regions of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, from the coast to the shelf-edge; and tilefish (Lopholatilus chamaeleonticeps), a species that lives on the continental slope and constructs elaborate, pueblo-esque burrows. The anthropogenic disturbances of greatest interest in the Gulf of Mexico include fishing, hypoxia, red tide, oil and gas exploration, and climatic change. We suggest that to understand the broader effects of both natural and anthropogenic disturbances on biomass and productivity in these species requires that we first understand the strength of interactions between them and the other species residing within their communities (e.g., predators, prey, commensals, and mutualists). PMID:21558199

  2. The changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A historical outline of climate changes is followed by a discussion of the problem of predictability. The main section goes into anthropogenic changes of the local (urban) and global climate, with particular regard to the greenhouse effect and its consequences in terms of human action. The author points out that today's climate problems should be discussed in a subject-centered and objective manner. (KW)

  3. Potential climatic effects of anthropogenic aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aerosols act as part of the climate system through their influence on solar and terrestrial radiation. The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the reduction of visibility is explored in this chapter. Elemental carbon has been identified as the most effective visibility-reducing species. Most of the visibility reduction is due to particles with diameter smaller than 2.5 μm. Studies indicate that sulfate is also a very important aerosol species that results in low visibility and high turbidity. Radiative properties such as aerosol single-scattering albedo values and absorption-to-backscatter ratios purported to produce warming or cooling effects of aerosols are discussed. It is concluded that aerosol clouds have a tendency to cool when they are over a low-albedo surface and have a tendency to warm when they are over high-albedo surfaces such as snow. Anthropogenic aerosols have a tendency to warm the earth's atmospheric system, based on calculations and assumed aerosol optical properties. However, this effect is somewhat offset by the absorption and re-emission into space of infrared terrestrial radiation. The net effect depends on the ratio of the absorption coefficients in the visible and infrared and also on the surface albedo. The effects on infrared radiation are documented for two anthropogenic aerosol sources in the United States, the Denver metropolitan area and power plant plumes in New Mexico, through calculations and measurements. Measured cooling rates within an aerosol plume are not sufficient to offset the warming rate due to absorption of short-wave radiation. Research indicates that anthropogenic aerosols can possibly cause local-scale warming of the atmosphere, but global-scale climatic effects remain an open question

  4. Global Climate Responses to Anthropogenic Groundwater Exploitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Y.; Xie, Z.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, a groundwater exploitation scheme is incorporated into the earth system model, Community Earth System Model 1.2.0 (CESM1.2.0), which is called CESM1.2_GW, and the climatic responses to anthropogenic groundwater withdrawal are then investigated on global scale. The scheme models anthropogenic groundwater exploitation and consumption, which are then divided into agricultural irrigation, industrial use and domestic use. A group of 41-year ensemble groundwater exploitation simulations with six different initial conditions, and a group of ensemble control simulations without exploitation are conducted using the developed model CESM1.2_GW with water supplies and demands estimated. The results reveal that the groundwater exploitation and water consumption cause drying effects on soil moisture in deep layers and wetting effects in upper layers, along with a rapidly declining groundwater table in Central US, Haihe River Basin in China and Northern India and Pakistan where groundwater extraction are most severe in the world. The atmosphere also responds to anthropogenic groundwater exploitation. Cooling effects on lower troposphere appear in large areas of North China Plain and of Northern India and Pakistan. Increased precipitation occurs in Haihe River Basin due to increased evapotranspiration from irrigation. Decreased precipitation occurs in Northern India because water vapor here is taken away by monsoon anomalies induced by anthropogenic alteration of groundwater. The local reducing effects of anthropogenic groundwater exploitation on total terrestrial water storage evinces that water resource is unsustainable with the current high exploitation rate. Therefore, a balance between slow groundwater withdrawal and rapid human economic development must be achieved to maintain a sustainable water resource, especially in over-exploitation regions such as Central US, Northern China, India and Pakistan.

  5. Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Ecological Restoration of Wetlands in the Arid Regions of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haibo Wang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available As an important part of the global ecosystem, wetlands and their dynamics greatly influence regional eco-environment systems. To understand the distributions, change processes and temporal-spatial characteristics of the wetlands of the inland river basin in an arid region (Heihe River Basin, HRB, this paper employed multi-source remote sensing data to facilitate multi-temporal monitoring of the HRB wetland using a wetland information extraction method. First, we performed monitoring of these wetlands for the years 2000, 2007, 2011 and 2014; then, we analyzed the variation characteristics of the spatial-temporal dynamics of the wetlands in the HRB over the last 15 years via the landscape dynamic change model and the transformation matrix. In addition, we studied the possible driving mechanisms of these changes. The research results showed that the total area of the HRB wetlands had decreased by 2959.13 hectares in the last 15 years (Since 2000, and the annual average loss was −1.09%. The dynamics characterizing the HRB wetlands generally presented a trend of slow increase after an initial decrease, which can be classified into three stages. From 2000 to 2007, the total wetland area rapidly decreased; from 2007 to 2011, the area slowly decreased; and from 2011 to 2014, the area gradually increased. The dynamic changing processes characterizing the wetland resources were ascribed to a combination of natural processes and human activities. The main driving mechanisms of wetland dynamic changes include climatic conditions, upper reach water inflows, population, water resources, cultivated area, and policy. The findings of this study can served as reference and support for the conservation and management of wetland resources in the HRB.

  6. The Consensus Project: Survey of the peer-reviewed scientific literature to determine the degree of consensus on anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuccitelli, D. A.; Cook, J.; Jokimäki, A.; Skuce, A. G.; Green, S. A.; Painting, R.; Morrison, G. W.; Reitano, R.; Richardson, M.; Honeycutt, R.; Winkler, B.; Tamblyn, G.

    2012-12-01

    Prior studies have identified a consensus amongst climate science experts regarding anthropogenic global warming (AGW) as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Oreskes 2004). Despite this evidence, a poll of 1010 American adults (Leiserowitz et al. 2011) revealed that only 15% believed that a large majority (>81%) of climate scientists think that global warming is caused mostly by human activities. This lack of public awareness of the consensus has hindered the implementation of climate policy, in the United States in particular. Using an online abstract classification and rating system in combination with an email survey of the papers' authors, a team of 24 contributors to the weblog Skeptical Science undertook an analysis of 12,465 abstracts published between 1991 and 2011, listed in the Web of Science with the keywords "global warming" and/or "global climate change". Each abstract was reviewed independently at least twice, based on the abstract and the title, with no reference to the authorship. This study represents the single largest survey of peer-reviewed climate research, and the large sample size allows for identification of patterns in climate research over time. Abstracts were classified based on subject focus, using a set of written criteria, as one of "impacts", "methods", "mitigation", "paleoclimate", or "opinion"; and rated according to degree of endorsement or rejection of AGW: three categories each of explicit/implicit endorsement and rejection, and a neutral category. Abstracts that referred to a changing climate but did not assert or reject a linkage to human-produced greenhouse gases were rated "neutral", and this rating proved to be by far the most common, comprising approximately 67% of total abstracts. Endorsement categories made up approximately 33% of all abstracts examined, whereas those rejecting AGW comprised less than 1%. Overall, endorsements outnumbered rejections approximately 50-to-1, consistent with the 97

  7. Assessing the vulnerability of the marine bird community in the western North Sea to climate change and other anthropogenic impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Newell, Mark A.; Butler, Adam; Daunt, Francis

    2014-01-01

    Ocean warming and anthropogenic activities such as fishing, shipping and marine renewable developments are affecting marine top predators. Research has focussed on the impacts of single stressors on single species, yet understanding cumulative effects of multiple stressors on communities is vital for effective conservation management. We studied a marine bird community (45 species; 11 families) that used the Forth and Tay region of the North Sea for breeding, overwintering or migration betwee...

  8. Coral Ecosystem Resilience, Conservation and Management on the Reefs of Jamaica in the Face of Anthropogenic Activities and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Crabbe, M. James C

    2010-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that are important in reef resilience and integrity help us understand how reef ecosystems react following major anthropogenic and environmental disturbances. The North Jamaican fringing reefs have shown some recent resilience to acute disturbances from hurricanes and bleaching, in addition to the recurring chronic stressors of over-fishing and land development. Factors that can improve coral reef resilience are reviewed, and reef rugosity is shown to correlate with coral...

  9. Impact of anthropogenic and climatic changes on biomass and diversity of the Central African forests, from local to global scale: original methods for new results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortier, Frédéric; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie; Ouédraogo, Dakis; Picard, Nicolas; Rossi, Vivien

    2014-05-01

    Forests of the Congo Basin, the second most important remaining block of tropical moist forest in the world, are facing increasing anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Understanding the biomass and diversity dynamics under these pressures is one major challenge for African nations and international communities. This talk aims to present original methods to model, infer, and predict growth, biomass and diversity of Central African forests, as well as new results on the impacts of global change on those forests, at various scales. With respect to methods, we will present theoretical frameworks allowing (i) to model growth processes in species-rich ecosystems like tropical rain forests, (ii) to take into account uncertainties in biomass estimation. In terms of results, we will highlight at a local scale, how human activities as well as climatic variations would impact (i) the composition and diversity of forests, (ii) the dynamics of biomass and growth processes. At a global scale, we will demonstrate how environmental filtering controls the above ground biomass. The number of studies are currently increasing over the Congo Basin through several research projects led by our team (CoForTips, DynAfFor) and contributing to various international organization's programs (Cifor, FAO, Comifac, Ofac).

  10. Societal need for improved understanding of climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and geo-hazard warning drive development of ocean observatories in European Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhl, Henry A.; André, Michel; Beranzoli, Laura; Çağatay, M. Namik; Colaço, Ana; Cannat, Mathilde; Dañobeitia, Juanjo J.; Favali, Paolo; Géli, Louis; Gillooly, Michael; Greinert, Jens; Hall, Per O. J.; Huber, Robert; Karstensen, Johannes; Lampitt, Richard S.; Larkin, Kate E.; Lykousis, Vasilios; Mienert, Jürgen; Miguel Miranda, J.; Person, Roland; Priede, Imants G.; Puillat, Ingrid; Thomsen, Laurenz; Waldmann, Christoph

    2011-10-01

    Society’s needs for a network of in situ ocean observing systems cross many areas of earth and marine science. Here we review the science themes that benefit from data supplied from ocean observatories. Understanding from existing studies is fragmented to the extent that it lacks the coherent long-term monitoring needed to address questions at the scales essential to understand climate change and improve geo-hazard early warning. Data sets from the deep sea are particularly rare with long-term data available from only a few locations worldwide. These science areas have impacts on societal health and well-being and our awareness of ocean function in a shifting climate. Substantial efforts are underway to realise a network of open-ocean observatories around European Seas that will operate over multiple decades. Some systems are already collecting high-resolution data from surface, water column, seafloor, and sub-seafloor sensors linked to shore by satellite or cable connection in real or near-real time, along with samples and other data collected in a delayed mode. We expect that such observatories will contribute to answering major ocean science questions including: How can monitoring of factors such as seismic activity, pore fluid chemistry and pressure, and gas hydrate stability improve seismic, slope failure, and tsunami warning? What aspects of physical oceanography, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems will be most sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic change? What are natural versus anthropogenic changes? Most fundamentally, how are marine processes that occur at differing scales related? The development of ocean observatories provides a substantial opportunity for ocean science to evolve in Europe. Here we also describe some basic attributes of network design. Observatory networks provide the means to coordinate and integrate the collection of standardised data capable of bridging measurement scales across a dispersed area in European Seas adding needed

  11. Coral Ecosystem Resilience, Conservation and Management on the Reefs of Jamaica in the Face of Anthropogenic Activities and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. James C. Crabbe

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of factors that are important in reef resilience and integrity help us understand how reef ecosystems react following major anthropogenic and environmental disturbances. The North Jamaican fringing reefs have shown some recent resilience to acute disturbances from hurricanes and bleaching, in addition to the recurring chronic stressors of over-fishing and land development. Factors that can improve coral reef resilience are reviewed, and reef rugosity is shown to correlate with coral cover and growth, particularly for branching Acropora species. The biodiversity index for the Jamaican reefs was lowered after the 2005 mass bleaching event, as were the numbers of coral colonies, but both had recovered by 2009. The importance of coastal zone reef management strategies and the economic value of reefs are discussed, and a protocol is suggested for future management of Jamaican reefs.

  12. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  13. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  14. Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Ward

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE and a hydrological model (STREAM to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation, and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence. For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m³ s−1 is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m³ s−1, and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m³ s−1 is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years. On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation; the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m³ s−1 is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration. Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years. On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.

  15. Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Ward

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE and a hydrological model (STREAM to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation, and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence. For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m3 s−1 is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m3 s−1, and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m3 s−1 is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years. On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation; the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m3 s−1 is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration. Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years. On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.

  16. Environmental changes, climate and anthropogenic impact in south-east Tunisia during the last 8 kyr

    OpenAIRE

    Sahbi JAOUADI; Lebreton, Vincent; Bout-Roumazeilles, Viviane; Siani, Giuseppe; Lakhdar, Rached; Boussoffara, Ridha; Dezileau, Laurent; Kallel, Nejib; Mannai-Tayech, Beya; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

    2016-01-01

    Pollen and clay mineralogical analyses of a Holocene sequence from Sebkha Boujmel (southern Tunisia) trace the climatic and environmental dynamics in the lower arid bioclimatic zone over the last 8000 years. During the mid- to late Holocene transition, between ca. 8 and 3 ka BP, a succession of five wet–dry oscillations is recorded. An intense arid event occurs between ca. 5.7 and 4.6 ka BP. This episode marks the onset of a long-term aridification trend with a progressive r...

  17. Fishers’ local knowledge on impact of climate change and anthropogenic interferences on Hilsa fishery in South Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jahan, Israt; Ahsan, Dewan; Farque, Md Hasan

    2016-01-01

    . The study also indicates that the major constraints to adopt with the change situation are low level of human capital and restricted access to the formal credit system. Therefore, incorporation of local knowledge in governmental policy formulation and public support to improve human skill are essential...

  18. Are natural climate forcings able to counteract the projected anthropogenic global warming?

    OpenAIRE

    Bertrand, C.; van Ypersele, J.P.; Berger, A.

    2002-01-01

    A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assess the climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over th...

  19. Changing climatic and anthropogenic influences on the Bermejo wetland, through archival documents – Mendoza, Argentina, 16th–20th centuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Prieto

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The wrong management of watering in the highest zones of the Mendoza northern oasis, the topography of the terrain and the deficient drainage, together with neotectonics phenomena, but mostly a dramatic and progressive increase of the Rio Mendoza flow volume originated the expansion of the wetlands area at the NE of the city of Mendoza at the turn of the 18th century, while in previous centuries it had retracted to a minimum. The area grew until reaching the dimension of large wetlands in the lowest oasis zones, resulting from a larger runoff and soil saturation by the rise of the phreatic layers. This situation remained throughout the 19th century, affecting the extension and use of the available land for human activity. The purpose of this study was to research this process that culminated in 1930 with the partial desiccation of the area. We have given particular importance to the influence of the climatic fluctuations in the Cordillera de los Andes and to the consequent variations of the Rio Mendoza flow volume in this process. For the analysis we used snowfall series at the cordillera and flow volume of the Rio Mendoza, built by Prieto (2009 with documental data. We analyzed which were the mediate and immediate consequences of the growth and later desiccation of the wetlands over the environment and its present repercussion on the ecosystem (salinization, poor soil drainage, soil alkalinization, sedimentation. In addition, we have also worked over georeferenced historic charts that partially reflect the behavior of the Cienaga del Bermejo during the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries. This behavior characterized by "growth pulses" and retraction moments is reflected in the analyzed charts, where those moments of major growth coincide with cycles of bigger snowstorms and larger flow volume in the Rio Mendoza.

  20. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  1. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  2. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  3. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on present and future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aerosols influence the Earth radiative budget both through their direct effect (scattering and absorption of solar radiation) and their indirect effect (impacts on cloud microphysics). The role of anthropogenic aerosol in climate change has been recognized to be significant when compared to the one of greenhouse gases. Despite many studies on this topic, the assessments of both anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and their impacts on meteorological variables are still very uncertain. Major reasons for these uncertainties stem from the insufficient knowledge of the emissions sources and of the processes of formation, transformation and deposition. Models used to study climate are often inadequate to study aerosol processes because of coarse spatial and temporal scales. Uncertainties due to the parameterization of the aerosol are added to the uncertainties in the representation of large scale dynamics and physical processes such as transport, hydrological cycle and radiative budget. To predict, the role of the anthropogenic aerosol impact in the future climate change, I have addressed some of these key uncertainties. In this study, I simulate interactively aerosols processes in a climate model in order to improve the estimation of their direct and indirect effects. I estimate a modification of the top of the atmosphere net flux of 60% for the present period. I also show that, for future projection, the representation of the emissions source is an other important source of error. I assess that aerosols radiative forcing differ by 40% between simulations performed with 2 different emissions inventories. These inventories are representative for a high and a low limit in term of carbonaceous aerosols emissions for the 2050 horizon. (author)

  4. Impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on stream flow and sediment discharge in the Wei River basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gao

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Reduced stream flow and increased sediment discharge are a major concern in the Yellow River basin of China which supplies water for agriculture, industry and the growing populations located along the river. Similar concerns exist in the Wei River basin which is the largest tributary of the Yellow River basin and comprises the highly eroded Loess Plateau. Better understanding of the drivers of stream flow and sediment discharge dynamics in the Wei River basin is needed for development of effective management strategies for the region and entire Yellow River basin. In this regard we analysed long term trends for water and sediment discharge during the flood season in the Wei River basin, China. Stream flow and sediment discharge data for 1932 to 2008 from existing hydrological stations located in two sub-catchments and at two points in the Wei River were analysed. Precipitation data were analysed from corresponding meteorological stations. We identified change points or transition years for the trends by the Pettitt method and, using double mass curves, we diagnosed whether they were caused by precipitation changes, human intervention, or both. We found significant decreasing trends for stream flow and sediment discharge during the flood season in both sub-catchments and in the Wei River itself. Change-point analyses further revealed that transition years existed and that rapid decline in stream flow began in 1968 (P<0.01, and that sediment discharge began in 1981 (P<0.01 in the main river. In the two sub-catchments, the transition years were 1985 (P<0.01 and 1994 (P<0.05 for water discharge, and 1978 and 1979 for sediment discharge (P<0.05, respectively. The impact of precipitation or human activity on the reduction amount after the transition years was estimated by double mass curves of precipitation vs stream flow (sediment. For reductions in stream flow and sediment discharge, the contribution rate of human

  5. Impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on stream flow and sediment discharge in the Wei River basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gao

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Reduced stream flow and increased sediment discharge are a major concern in the Yellow River basin of China, which supplies water for agriculture, industry and the growing populations located along the river. Similar concerns exist in the Wei River basin, which is the largest tributary of the Yellow River basin and comprises the highly eroded Loess Plateau. Better understanding of the drivers of stream flow and sediment discharge dynamics in the Wei River basin is needed for development of effective management strategies for the region and entire Yellow River basin. In this regard we analysed long-term trends for water and sediment discharge during the flood season in the Wei River basin, China. Stream flow and sediment discharge data for 1932 to 2008 from existing hydrological stations located in two subcatchments and at two points in the Wei River were analysed. Precipitation and air temperature data were analysed from corresponding meteorological stations. We identified change-points or transition years for the trends by the Pettitt method and, using double mass curves, we diagnosed whether they were caused by precipitation changes, human intervention, or both. We found significant decreasing trends for stream flow and sediment discharge during the flood season in both subcatchments and in the Wei River itself. Change-point analyses further revealed that transition years existed and that rapid decline in stream flow began in 1968 (P P P P P < 0.05, respectively. The impact of precipitation or human activity on the reduction amount after the transition years was estimated by double mass curves of precipitation vs. stream flow (sediment. For reductions in stream flow and sediment discharge, the contribution rate of human activity was found to be 82.80 and 95.56%, respectively, and was significantly stronger than the contribution rate of precipitation. This evidence clearly suggests that, in the absence of significant decreases in precipitation

  6. Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 k and 0.2 k yr BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Strandberg

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 k BP and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i potential natural vegetation (V simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii potential vegetation with anthropogenic land cover (deforestation as simulated by the HYDE model (V + H, and (iii potential vegetation with anthropogenic land cover as simulated by the KK model (V + K. The KK model estimates are closer to a set of pollen-based reconstructions of vegetation cover than the HYDE model estimates. The climate-model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, simulated deforestation is much more extensive than previously assumed, in particular according to the KK model. This leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe since evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer

  7. Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douville, H.; Ribes, A.; Decharme, B.; Alkama, R.; Sheffield, J.

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle, with an increase of both evapotranspiration (EVT) and precipitation. Yet, the magnitude and spatial distribution of this global and annual mean response remains highly uncertain. Better constraining land EVT in twenty-first-century climate scenarios is critical for predicting changes in surface climate, including heatwaves and droughts, evaluating impacts on ecosystems and water resources, and designing adaptation policies. Continental scale EVT changes may already be underway, but have never been attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Here we provide global gridded estimates of annual EVT and demonstrate that the latitudinal and decadal differentiation of recent EVT variations cannot be understood without invoking the anthropogenic radiative forcings. In the mid-latitudes, the emerging picture of enhanced EVT confirms the end of the dimming decades and highlights the possible threat posed by increasing drought frequency to managing water resources and achieving food security in a changing climate.

  8. Changes in Allometric Attributes and Biomass of Forests and Woodlands across an Altitudinal and Rainfall Gradient: What Are the Implications of Increasing Seasonality due to Anthropogenic Climate Change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Hunter

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Canonical correspondence analysis and linear regressions were used to relate height, diameter, and dispersion measurements of 36,380 stems from 197 species recorded in 2,341 plots against both climatic and landscape variables. Above ground biomass increased in wetter and cooler locations that ameliorate the seasonal rainfall deficits. Taller and greater diameter trees with lower wood densities occur at higher altitudes. Differences between locations are based on a change in the composition of species rather than a change in the allometric properties within a species. The results support the hydraulic limitation and species packing hypotheses. These interrelationships may be affected by the interactions of fire frequency and drought which are a common feature of much of the study area. Under current climate change scenarios it is likely that there will be a reduction in above ground biomass, the number of stems per hectare, average height, average diameter, and basal area due to increasing seasonality of rainfall, temperatures, and the intensity and frequency of fires. The largest of trees are likely to be removed early due to their inability to cope with increased drought stress. The results suggest a marked reduction in carbon storage will occur across the study region in eastern Australia.

  9. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  10. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book proposes both a scientific and societal approach of a phenomenon which is today the object of lot of debates. Climates perception is illustrated with examples taken in various modern civilizations and in the history of mankind. The Sahara example illustrates the notion of climate evolution. The last chapters are devoted to forecasting and scenarios for the future, taking into account the share of uncertainty. The controversies generated by these forecasts and the Kyoto protocol stakes demonstrate the tight links between the scientific, economical and political aspects in climatic change debates. (J.S.)

  11. CLANIMAE: Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on African Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verschuren, D.; André, L.; Mahy, G.; Cocquyt, C.; Plisnier, P.-D.; Gelorini, V.; Rumes, B.; Lebrun, J.; Bock, L.; Marchant, R.

    2009-04-01

    Global studies of historical land use focusing on the large-scale landscape change that can potentially affect global climate (via effects on surface albedo, aerosols, and the carbon cycle) have concluded that the impact of pre-colonial East African cultures on regional ecosystems was limited, due to very low mean population density. This contrasts with the paradigm in East African archaeology and paleoecology that the onset of anthropogenic deforestation started at least 2500 years ago, following the introduction of iron metallurgy by Bantu immigrants. This conflict highlights the present lack of real data on historical climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, which are eminently relevant to sustainable natural resource management and biodiversity conservation in a future of continued population growth and global climate change. CLANIMAE responds to the urgent need of a correct long-term perspective to today's climate-environment-human interactions in East Africa, by reconstructing simultaneously the histories of past climate change and of vegetation and water-quality changes over the last 2500 years, through multi-disciplinary analysis of dated lake-sediment records. The climate reconstructions integrate information on biological, geochemical and sedimentological indicators of past changes in the water balance of the study lakes, which cover the climatological gradient from (sub-)humid western Uganda to semi-arid eastern Kenya. Reconstruction of past terrestrial vegetation dynamics is based on analyses of fossil plant pollen and phytoliths, plus the fossil spores of fungi associated with the excrements of large domestic animals as indicators of lake use by pastoralists. The evolution of water quality through time is reconstructed using silicon isotopes in diatom algae as proxy indicator for past phytoplankton productivity, and paleoecological analyses of fossil diatoms and aquatic macrophytes, following calibration of diatom and macrophyte species

  12. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

  13. Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    The IJOEM

    2010-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathways could stabilise the global average atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) at 450 ppm, the level which has a 50% chance of keeping the temperature rise to 2 oC? What policies are nee...

  14. Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.

    2015-07-01

    Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are

  15. Engineering paradigms and anthropogenic global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohle, Martin

    2016-04-01

    This essay discusses 'paradigms' as means to conceive anthropogenic global change. Humankind alters earth-systems because of the number of people, the patterns of consumption of resources, and the alterations of environments. This process of anthropogenic global change is a composite consisting of societal (in the 'noosphere') and natural (in the 'bio-geosphere') features. Engineering intercedes these features; e.g. observing stratospheric ozone depletion has led to understanding it as a collateral artefact of a particular set of engineering choices. Beyond any specific use-case, engineering works have a common function; e.g. civil-engineering intersects economic activity and geosphere. People conceive their actions in the noosphere including giving purpose to their engineering. The 'noosphere' is the ensemble of social, cultural or political concepts ('shared subjective mental insights') of people. Among people's concepts are the paradigms how to shape environments, production systems and consumption patterns given their societal preferences. In that context, engineering is a means to implement a given development path. Four paradigms currently are distinguishable how to make anthropogenic global change happening. Among the 'engineering paradigms' for anthropogenic global change, 'adaptation' is a paradigm for a business-as-usual scenario and steady development paths of societies. Applying this paradigm implies to forecast the change to come, to appropriately design engineering works, and to maintain as far as possible the current production and consumption patterns. An alternative would be to adjust incrementally development paths of societies, namely to 'dovetail' anthropogenic and natural fluxes of matter and energy. To apply that paradigm research has to identify 'natural boundaries', how to modify production and consumption patterns, and how to tackle process in the noosphere to render alterations of common development paths acceptable. A further alternative

  16. Impacts of past climate and sea level change on Everglades wetlands: placing a century of anthropogenic change into a late-Holocene context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.

    2011-01-01

    We synthesize existing evidence on the ecological history of the Florida Everglades since its inception ~7 ka (calibrated kiloannum) and evaluate the relative impacts of sea level rise, climate variability, and human alteration of Everglades hydrology on wetland plant communities. Initial freshwater peat accumulation began between 6 and 7 ka on the platform underlying modern Florida Bay when sea level was ~6.2 m below its current position. By 5 ka, sawgrass and waterlily peats covered the area bounded by Lake Okeechobee to the north and the Florida Keys to the south. Slower rates of relative sea level rise ~3 ka stabilized the south Florida coastline and initiated transitions from freshwater to mangrove peats near the coast. Hydrologic changes in freshwater marshes also are indicated ~3 ka. During the last ~2 ka, the Everglades wetland was affected by a series of hydrologic fluctuations related to regional to global-scale fluctuations in climate and sea level. Pollen evidence indicates that regional-scale droughts lasting two to four centuries occurred ~1 ka and ~0.4 ka, altering wetland community composition and triggering development of characteristic Everglades habitats such as sawgrass ridges and tree islands. Intercalation of mangrove peats with estuarine muds ~1 ka indicates a temporary slowing or stillstand of sea level. Although sustained droughts and Holocene sea level rise played large roles in structuring the greater Everglades ecosystem, twentieth century reductions in freshwater flow, compartmentalization of the wetland, and accelerated rates of sea level rise had unprecedented impacts on oxidation and subsidence of organic soils, changes/loss of key Everglades habitats, and altered distribution of coastal vegetation.

  17. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  18. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle;

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... during the last 10 000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to severely influence both...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  19. Statistical analyses for the purpose of an early detection of global and regional climate change due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect; Statistische Analysen zur Frueherkennung globaler und regionaler Klimaaenderungen aufgrund des anthropogenen Treibhauseffektes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grieser, J.; Staeger, T.; Schoenwiese, C.D.

    2000-03-01

    The report answers the question where, why and how different climate variables have changed within the last 100 years. The analyzed variables are observed time series of temperature (mean, maximum, minimum), precipitation, air pressure, and water vapour pressure in a monthly resolution. The time series are given as station data and grid box data as well. Two kinds of time-series analysis are performed. The first is applied to find significant changes concerning mean and variance of the time series. Thereby also changes in the annual cycle and frequency of extreme events arise. The second approach is used to detect significant spatio-temporal patterns in the variations of climate variables, which are most likely driven by known natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. Furtheron, an estimation of climate noise allows to indicate regions where certain climate variables have changed significantly due to the enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse effect. (orig.) [German] Der Bericht gibt Antwort auf die Frage, wo sich welche Klimavariable wie und warum veraendert hat. Ausgangspunkt der Analyse sind huntertjaehrige Zeitreihen der Temperatur (Mittel, Maximum, Minimum), des Niederschlags, Luftdrucks und Wasserdampfpartialdrucks in monatlicher Aufloesung. Es wurden sowohl Stationsdaten als auch Gitterpunktdaten verwendet. Mit Hilfe der strukturorientierten Zeitreihenzerlegung wurden signifikankte Aenderungen im Mittel und in der Varianz der Zeitreihen gefunden. Diese betreffen auch Aenderungen im Jahresgang und in der Haeufigkeit extremer Ereignisse. Die ursachenorientierte Zeitreihenzerlegung selektiert signifikante raumzeitliche Variationen der Klimavariablen, die natuerlichen bzw. anthropogenen Klimaantrieben zugeordnet werden koennen. Eine Abschaetzung des Klimarauschens erlaubt darueber hinaus anzugeben, wo und wie signifikant der anthropogene Treibhauseffekt welche Klimavariablen veraendert hat. (orig.)

  20. The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tett, Simon F.B. [University of Reading, Met Office, Hadley Centre (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, Reading (United Kingdom); Betts, Richard; Johns, Timothy C.; Jones, Andy; Oestroem, Elisabeth [Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom); Crowley, Thomas J. [Duke University, Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227, Durham, NC (United States); Gregory, Jonathan [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom); Osborn, Timothy J. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom); Roberts, David L. [Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom); Bracknell (United Kingdom); Woodage, Margaret J. [Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom); ESSC, University of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2007-01-15

    A climate simulation of an ocean/atmosphere general circulation model driven with natural forcings alone (constant ''pre-industrial'' land-cover and well-mixed greenhouse gases, changing orbital, solar and volcanic forcing) has been carried out from 1492 to 2000. Another simulation driven with natural and anthropogenic forcings (changes in greenhouse gases, ozone, the direct and first indirect effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and land-cover) from 1750 to 2000 has also been carried out. These simulations suggest that since 1550, in the absence of anthropogenic forcings, climate would have warmed by about 0.1 K. Simulated response is not in equilibrium with the external forcings suggesting that both climate sensitivity and the rate at which the ocean takes up heat determine the magnitude of the response to forcings since 1550. In the simulation with natural forcings climate sensitivity is similar to other simulations of HadCM3 driven with CO{sub 2} alone. Climate sensitivity increases when anthropogenic forcings are included. The natural forcing used in our experiment increases decadal-centennial time-scale and large spatial scale climate variability, relative to internal variability, as diagnosed from a control simulation. Mean conditions in the natural simulation are cooler than in our control simulation reflecting the reduction in forcing. However, over certain regions there is significant warming, relative to control, due to an increase in forest cover. Comparing the simulation driven by anthropogenic and natural forcings with the natural-only simulation suggests that anthropogenic forcings have had a significant impact on, particularly tropical, climate since the early nineteenth century. Thus the entire instrumental temperature record may be ''contaminated'' by anthropogenic influences. Both the hydrological cycle and cryosphere are also affected by anthropogenic forcings. Changes in tree-cover appear to be

  1. Le changement climatique d'origine humaine. Rappel de quelques résultats générauxAnthropogenic climate change: general results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petit, Michel

    1999-02-01

    The IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) reports have highlighted major results, which constitute a relevant framework for the specific papers in this issue. Both facts established with large confidence level and models results are presented.

  2. Carbon Management In the Post-Cap-and-Trade Carbon Economy: An Economic Model for Limiting Climate Change by Managing Anthropogenic Carbon Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGroff, F. A.

    2013-05-01

    In this paper, we discuss an economic model for comprehensive carbon management that focuses on changes in carbon flux in the biosphere due to anthropogenic activity. The two unique features of the model include: 1. A shift in emphasis from primarily carbon emissions, toward changes in carbon flux, mainly carbon extraction, and 2. A carbon price vector (CPV) to express the value of changes in carbon flux, measured in changes in carbon sequestration, or carbon residence time. The key focus with the economic model is the degree to which carbon flux changes due to anthropogenic activity. The economic model has three steps: 1. The CPV metric is used to value all forms of carbon associated with any anthropogenic activity. In this paper, the CPV used is a logarithmic chronological scale to gauge expected carbon residence (or sequestration) time. In future economic models, the CPV may be expanded to include other factors to value carbon. 2. Whenever carbon changes form (and CPV) due to anthropogenic activity, a carbon toll is assessed as determined by the change in the CPV. The standard monetary unit for carbon tolls are carbon toll units, or CTUs. The CTUs multiplied by the quantity of carbon converted (QCC) provides the total carbon toll, or CT. For example, CT = (CTU /mole carbon) x (QCC moles carbon). 3. Whenever embodied carbon (EC) attributable to a good or service moves via trade to a jurisdiction with a different CPV metric, a carbon toll (CT) is assessed representing the CPV difference between the two jurisdictions. This economic model has three clear advantages. First, the carbon pricing and cost scheme use existing and generally accepted accounting methodologies to ensure the veracity and verifiability of carbon management efforts with minimal effort and expense using standard, existing auditing protocols. Implementing this economic model will not require any new, special, unique, or additional training, tools, or systems for any entity to achieve their minimum

  3. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  4. Projecting impacts of anthropogenic climatic change on the bird communities of southern Swedish spruce monocultures : will the species poor get poorer?

    OpenAIRE

    Felton, Adam; Lindbladh, Matts; Elmberg, Johan; Felton, Annika; Andersson, Erik; Sekercioglu, Cagan; Collingham, Yvonne; Huntley, Brian

    2014-01-01

    The potential impact of climatic change on bird species’ distributions in Europe was recently modeled for several scenarios of projected late 21st century climate. The results indicate mean range shifts of hundreds of kilometres north for many of European bird species. Here we consider the implications from such distributional shifts for the bird communities of Norway spruce (Picea abies)monocultures in southern Sweden, a forest type likely to remain prevalent due to forestry, ...

  5. Climate Change: Basic Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are here: EPA Home Climate Change Basic Information Climate Change: Basic Information On This Page Climate change ... We can make a difference How is the climate changing in the U.S.? Observations across the United ...

  6. Quantifying the anthropogenic and climatic contributions to changes in water discharge and sediment load into the sea: A case study of the Yangtze River, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yifei; Zou, Xinqing; Gao, Jianhua; Xu, Xinwanghao; Wang, Chenglong; Tang, Dehao; Wang, Teng; Wu, Xiaowei

    2015-12-01

    Based on data from the Datong hydrological station and 147 meteorological stations, the influences of climate change and human activities on temporal changes in water discharge and sediment load were examined in the Yangtze River basin from 1953 to 2010. The Mann-Kendall test, abrupt change test (Mann-Kendall and cumulative anomaly test), and Morlet wavelet method were employed to analyze the water discharge and sediment load data measured at the Datong hydrological station. The results indicated that the annual mean precipitation and water discharge exhibited decreasing trends of -0.0064 mm/10 yr and -1.41×10(8) m3/yr, respectively, and that the water sediment load showed a significant decreasing trend of -46.5×10(6) t/yr. Meanwhile, an abrupt change in the water discharge occurred in 2003. The sediment load also exhibited an abrupt change in 1985. From 1970 to 2010, the climate change and human activities contributed 72% and 28%, respectively, to the water discharge reduction. The human-induced decrease in the sediment load was 914.03×10(6) t/yr during the 1970s and 3301.79×10(6) t/yr during the 2000s. The contribution from human activities also increased from 71% to 92%, especially in the 1990s, when the value increased to 92%. Climate change and human activities contributed 14% and 86%, respectively, to the sediment load reduction. Inter-annual variations in water discharge and sediment load were affected by climate oscillations and human activities. The effect of human activities on the sediment load was considerably greater than those on water discharge in the Yangtze River basin. PMID:26254080

  7. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  8. Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Geels

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

  9. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  10. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  11. Climate benefits of changing diet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stehfest, E.; Bouwman, A.F.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Elzen, M.; Kabat, P.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in

  12. Late Quaternary changes in bat palaeobiodiversity and palaeobiogeography under climatic and anthropogenic pressure: new insights from Marie-Galante, Lesser Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoetzel, Emmanuelle; Royer, Aurélien; Cochard, David; Lenoble, Arnaud

    2016-07-01

    Data on Lesser Antillean Late Quaternary fossil bat assemblages remains limited, leading to their general exclusion from studies focusing on Caribbean bat palaeobiodiversity and palaeobiogeography. Additionally, the role of climatic versus human pressure driving changes in faunal communities remains poorly understood. Here we describe a fossil bat assemblage from Blanchard Cave on Marie-Galante in the Lesser Antilles, which produced numerous bat remains from a well-dated, stratified context. Our study reveals the occurrence of at least 12 bat species during the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene on Marie-Galante, whereas only eight species are currently known on the island. Among these 12 species, six are extirpated and one is extinct. Faunal changes within the Blanchard sequence indicate variations in Pleistocene bat species representation in the Lesser Antilles to have been influenced by climatic conditions, with "northern species" (Greater Antilles) favored during glacial conditions and "southern species" (southern Lesser Antilles) during interglacial events. However, few species disappeared at the end of the Late Pleistocene, with most of the extinction/extirpation events occurring during the Holocene. This pattern suggests human activities in the Lesser Antilles to have played a major role in bat turnover during the late Holocene.

  13. Anthropogenic Drivers of Ecosystem Change: an Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian O'Neill

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of what the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA calls “indirect and direct drivers” of change in ecosystem services at a global level. The MA definition of a driver is any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem. A direct driver unequivocally influences ecosystem processes. An indirect driver operates more diffusely by altering one or more direct drivers. Global driving forces are categorized as demographic, economic, sociopolitical, cultural and religious, scientific and technological, and physical and biological. Drivers in all categories other than physical and biological are considered indirect. Important direct drivers include changes in climate, plant nutrient use, land conversion, and diseases and invasive species. This paper does not discuss natural drivers such as climate variability, extreme weather events, or volcanic eruptions.

  14. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  15. Comparison of the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic disturbances on the El Arish coast and seaweed vegetation after ten years in 2010, North Sinai, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gihan Ahmed El Shoubaky

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Human activities on coasts and climate changes during the past ten years have given rise to considerable shoreline changes along the El Arish coast (the northern coast of the Sinai Peninsula. In the El Arish Power Plant, sediment accretion has reached the tip of the breakwaterof the cooling water intake basin, necessitating extensive dredging inside the basin. To the east of El Arish Harbour, the shoreline has been incontinuous retreat. The differences between the year 2000 and 2010 in the shoreline along the El Arish coast weredetermined by analysing satellite images from NOAA-AVHRR images. The analyses revealed erosion and accretionpatterns along the coast. The physical parameters showed that the minimum water temperature of 18°C wasrecorded at site I in winter and that the maximum was 40°C at site II in summer. The latter temperature can be attributed to the effluent dischargeof cooling water from the El Arish power plant. Spatial and temporal patterns in the distribution and abundance of macroalgae were measured at four sites(I, II, III and IV along the El Arish coast. The percentage cover of the successional macroalgae exhibited environmental fluctuations. After ten years,the phytocommunity showed that red and green algae were dominant at the study sites. Significant differences between past and current flora were observed.39 taxa recorded in 2000 were absent in 2010, while 9 taxa not previously reported were present in 2010. These changes are discussed in the context ofpossible global warming effects.PERMANOVA showed significant changes (p < 0.001 between sites, seasons, species abundance and macroalgal groups along the El Arish coast in 2000 and2010. The similarity matrix showed a significant difference between the flora in 2010 and that recorded in 2000, indicating poor similarity and changes inspecies composition among the seasons at the different sites. Most of the algae belonged to the filamentous, coarsely branched and sheet

  16. Climatic change: possible impacts on human health

    OpenAIRE

    Beniston, Martin

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses a number of problems relating climatic change and human health. Following an introduction that outlines the over-arching issues, a short summary is given on climatic change and its anthropogenic causes. The rest of the paper then focuses on the direct and indirect impacts of global climatic change on health. Direct effects comprise changes in the hygrothermal stress response of humans, atmospheric pollution, water quality and availability; indirect effects include the pot...

  17. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  18. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  19. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  20. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  1. The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate variability on tropical cyclone tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbert, Angela Joy

    To examine the impact of natural and anthropogenic climate variability on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks, a comprehensive analysis is conducted examining changes in TC tracks from changes in the large-scale steering flow and TC genesis for different climate scenarios. A Beta and Advection Model is used to create tracks under the different climate scenarios, which are then analyzed focusing on each contribution from changes in the large-scale steering flow and TC genesis separately and as a combined impact. Two experiments are conducted; the first examines potential changes in TC tracks due to anthropogenic climate change in the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific. The impacts of anthropogenic climate change on TC tracks are robust across models and potential future scenarios for changes in CO2. For the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific, there is a statistically significant decrease in TC tracks that move straight, impacting the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, or the Philippines, and a statistically significant increase in TC tracks that recurve into the open ocean. These changes are predicted to be small for any given area, with a change of ~1-5 TCs per decade and are found to be primiarly due to changes in the large-scale steering flow; however, small changes in TC genesis still contribute, especially in the North Atlantic. The second experiment examines potential TC tracks during the Last Glacial Maximum. The Last Glacial Maximum had a substantially different climate from present day allowing for an analysis on the impact of climate variability with a larger magntitude of change. Through comparing model-simulated tracks in the Pre-industrial Control and the Last Glacial Maximum, a global decrease in TC tracks is found, expect in the Central North and South Pacific. Unlike in the anthropogenic experiment, changes in TC genesis are the primary contributor to proposed differences in the TC tracks. Further analysis of the parameters that are used to

  2. Application of HydroGeoSphere to model the response to anthropogenic climate change of three-dimensional hydrological processes in the geologically, geothermally, and topographically complex Valles Caldera super volcano, New Mexico: Preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wine, M.; Cadol, D. D.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is expected to reduce streamflow in the southwestern USA due to reduction in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. Understanding the effects of climate change in this region is particularly important for mountainous areas since these are primary sources of recharge in arid and semi-arid environments. Therefore we undertook to model effects of climate change on the hydrological processes in Valles Caldera (448 km2), located in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico. In Valles Caldera modeling the surficial, hydrogeological, and geothermal processes that influence hydrologic fluxes each present challenges. The surficial dynamics of evaporative demand and snowmelt both serve to control recharge dynamics, but are complicated by the complex topography and spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics. Complex factors affecting evaporative demand include leaf area index, temperature, albedo, and radiation affected by topographic shading; all of these factors vary in space and time. Snowmelt processes interact with evaporative demand and geology to serve as an important control on streamflow generation, but modeling the effects of spatiotemporal snow distributions on streamflow generation remains a challenge. The complexity of Valles Caldera's geology—and its associated hydraulic properties—rivals that of its surficial hydrologic forcings. Hydrologically important geologic features that have formed in the Valles Caldera are three-dimensionally intricate and include a dense system of faults, alluvium, landslides, lake deposits, and features associated with the eruption and collapse of this super volcano. Coupling geothermally-driven convection to the hydrologic cycle in this still-active geothermal system presents yet an additional challenge in modeling Valles Caldera. Preliminary results from applying the three-dimensional distributed hydrologic finite element model HydroGeoSphere to a sub-catchment of Valles Caldera will be

  3. Nonlinear effects of anthropogenic aerosol and urban land surface forcing on spring climate in eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Jiechun; Xu, Haiming; Zhang, Leying

    2016-05-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols and urban land cover change induce opposite thermal effects on the atmosphere near surface as well as in the troposphere. One can think of these anthropogenic effects as composed of two parts: the individual effect due to an individual anthropogenic forcing and the nonlinear effects resulting from the coexistence of two forcing factors. In this study, we explored the role of such nonlinear effects in affecting East Asian climate, as well as individual forcing effects, using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 coupled with the Community Land Model version 4. Atmospheric responses were simulated by including anthropogenic aerosol emission only, urban cover only, or the combination of the two, over eastern China. Results showed that nonlinear responses were different from any effects by an individual forcing or the linear combination of individual responses. The nonlinear interaction could generate cold horizontal temperature advection to cool the troposphere, which induced anomalous subsidence along the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). This anomalous vertical motion, together with a weakened low-level southwesterly, favored below-normal (above-normal) rainfall over the YRV (southern China), shifting the spring rain belt southward. The resultant diabatic cooling, in turn, amplified the anomalous descent and further decreased tropospheric temperature over the YRV, forming a positive feedback loop to maintain the nonlinear effects. Consequently, the nonlinear effects acted to reduce the climate anomalies from a simple linear combination of two individual effects and played an important role in regional responses to one anthropogenic forcing when the other is prescribed.

  4. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  5. Scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8 C deg., and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10 000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2 C deg. is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun's supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action. (author)

  6. On climate change skepticism and denial in tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hall, C.M.; Amelung, B.; Cohen, S.; Eijgelaar, E.; Gössling, S.; Higham, J.; Leemans, R.; Peeters, P.; Ram, Y.; Scott, D.

    2015-01-01

    The period leading to and immediately after the release of the IPCC’s fifth series of climate change assessments saw substantial efforts by climate change denial interests to portray anthropogenic climate change (ACC) as either unproven theory or a negligible contribution to natural climate variabil

  7. Impacts of climate change on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the "normal" climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety...

  8. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  9. Climate response of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2012-07-13

    The equilibrium climate response to the total effects (direct, indirect and semi-direct effects) of aerosols arising from anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions on the South Asian summer monsoon system is studied using a coupled atmosphere-slab ocean model. Our results suggest that anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols generally induce a reduction in mean summer monsoon precipitation over most parts of the Indian subcontinent, strongest along the western coastline of the Indian peninsula and eastern Nepal region, but modest increases also occur over the north western part of the subcontinent. While most of the noted reduction in precipitation is triggered by increased emissions of aerosols from anthropogenic activities, modest increases in the north west are mostly associated with decreases in local emissions of aerosols from forest fire and grass fire sources. Anthropogenic aerosols from outside Asia also contribute to the overall reduction in precipitation but the dominant contribution comes from aerosol sources within Asia. Local emissions play a more important role in the total rainfall response to anthropogenic aerosol sources during the early monsoon period, whereas both local as well as remote emissions of aerosols play almost equally important roles during the later part of the monsoon period. While precipitation responses are primarily driven by local aerosol forcing, regional surface temperature changes over the region are strongly influenced by anthropogenic aerosols from sources further away (non-local changes). Changes in local anthropogenic organic and black carbon emissions by as much as a factor of two (preserving their ratio) produce the same basic signatures in the model's summer monsoon temperature and precipitation responses.

  10. Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services, and Climate Change : The Economic Problem

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is both a cause and an effect of biodiversity change. Along with anthropogenic dispersion, climate change is the main driver of change in the geographical distribution of both beneficial and harmful species, crops, livestock, harvested wild species, pests, predators and pathogens. And the capacity of ecosystems to adapt to climate change depends on the diversity of species t...

  11. Comment on "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming" by Beenstock et al. (2012) – some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    F. Pretis; Hendry, D. F.

    2013-01-01

    We outline six important hazards that can be encountered in econometric modelling of time-series data, and apply that analysis to demonstrate errors in the empirical modelling of climate data in Beenstock et al. (2012). We show that the claim made in Beenstock et al. (2012) as to the different degrees of integrability of CO2 and temperature is incorrect. In particular, the level of integration is not constant and not intrinsic to the process. Further, we illustrate that the ...

  12. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – ...

  13. Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change? Será o crescimento mundial de incidência da asma um impacto antecipado de mudanças climáticas antropogênicas?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul John Beggs

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.O crescimento na incidência, prevalência e morbidade da asma durante as recentes décadas representa importante desafio para a saúde pública. Pólen é um importante desencadeador de alguns tipos de asma e tanto a sua quantidade como as especificidades das estações em que eles mais se disseminam dependem de variáveis climáticas e meteorológicas. No mesmo período em que se observa o incremento na incidência da asma houve considerável crescimento de concentração de dióxido de carbono na atmosfera e aumento da média de temperatura da superfície da terra. Nossa hipótese é a de que as mudanças antropogênicas do clima constituem um fator plausível para o incremento da incidência da asma. Maiores concentrações de dióxido de carbono e elevadas temperaturas podem aumentar a quantidade de pólen e induzir o aumento de variações climáticas que facilitam sua dispersão. Alergias a pólen podem aumentar

  14. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  15. Past and Current Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  16. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  17. Mathematics of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Halstadtrø, Ida

    2013-01-01

    Mathematics in climate research is rarely mentioned in the everyday conversations or in the media when talking about climate changes. This thesis therefore focus on the central role mathematics plays in climate research, through describing the different models used in predicting future weather and climate. In Chapter 1, a general introduction to climate, its components and feedbacks, and today's status is given. Chapter 2 concentrates on the dynamical models represented by ordinary differenti...

  18. Climate change and the role of surveyors

    OpenAIRE

    Boateng, Isaac

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has been one of the main causes of the rise and fall of civilisations, migration and destruction of complex societies from the apocalyptic story of Noah’s Ark and the flood, through the ice age to the present time. The development of complex societies and population growth mostly leads to overexploitation of the earth resources to support the complex life styles. In the last century, anthropogenic climate change which is mainly driven by the volume of human emission of greenhou...

  19. 1000 years of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, C.

    Solar activity has been observed to vary on decadal and centennial time scales. Recent evidence (Bond, 2002) points to a major semi-periodic variation of approximately 1,500 yrs. For this reason, and because high resolution proxy records are limited to the past thousand years or so, assessing the role of the sun's variability on climate change over this time f ame has received much attention. A pressingr application of these assessments is the attempt to separate the role of the sun from that of various anthropogenic forcings in the past century and a half. This separation is complicated by the possible existence of natural variability other than solar, and by the fact that the time-dependence of solar and anthropogenic forcings is very similar over the past hundred years or so. It has been generally assumed that solar forcing is direct, i.e. changes in sun's irradiance. However, evidence has been put forth suggesting that there exist various additional indirect forcings that could be as large as or even exceed direct forcing (modulation of cosmic ray - induced cloudiness, UV- induced stratospheric ozone change s, or oscillator -driven changes in the Pacific Ocean). Were such forcings to be large, they could account for nearly all 20th Century warming, relegating anthropogenic effects to a minor role. Determination of climate change over the last thousand years offers perhaps the best way to assess the magnitude of total solar forcing, thus allowing its comparison with that of anthropogenic sources. Perhaps the best proxy records for climate variation in the past 1,000 yrs have been variations in temperat ure sensitive tree rings (Briffa and Osborne, 2002). A paucity of such records in the Southern Hemisphere has largely limited climate change determinations to the subtropical NH. Two problems with tree rings are that the rings respond to temperature differently with the age of the tree, and record largely the warm, growing season only. It appears that both these

  20. Assessment of Mountain Ecosystems Changes Under Anthropogenic Pressure in Latorica River Basin (Transcarpathian Region, Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozak Olena

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Carpathian mountain ecosystems have been changed under anthropogenic pressure during last decades. The different types of anthropogenic pressure affect the ecosystem characteristics and functioning. The species composition, species richness and ecological indicator values of 12 ecological factors were compared among 14 habitats: natural, semi-natural, degraded and ruderal ecosystems in different altitude zones. The results show that anthropogenic pressure and altitude gradient influence indices of edaphic and climate conditions. The anthropogenic pressure also affects biodiversity: the highest species richness and Shannon-Wiener index are observed in habitats with ‘intermediate’ disturbances level, while high level of disturbances cause decrease in bio-diversity. The disturbances cause the ecosystem to become susceptible to invasion of alien species, while native species, especially rare, become vulnerable and can disappear.

  1. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  2. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  3. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  4. Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeebe, Richard E

    2013-08-20

    Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. PMID:23918402

  5. Risk communication: Anthropogenically induced climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to reduce the risk of the greenhouse effect, conventional thermal power plants should be substituted by maximum energy conservation, use of renewable energies, and low-risk, high-tech nuclear power plants. Motor traffic exhausts could be eliminated by alternative fuels, and trace gas reducers, such as tropical rain forests, preserved by financial adjustments. CFC's are to be reduced in any case in order to lower the ozone risk. (DG)

  6. Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  7. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  8. Does Climate Literacy Matter? A Case Study of U.S. Students' Level of Concern about Anthropogenic Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedford, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Educators seeking to address global warming in their classrooms face numerous challenges, including the question of whether student opinions about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) can change in response to increased knowledge about the climate system. This article analyzes survey responses from 458 students at a primarily undergraduate…

  9. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  10. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  11. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  12. Climate change science - beyond IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: The main conclusions of the IPCC Working Group I assessment of the physical science of climate change, from the Fourth IPCC Assessment, will be presented, along with the evidence supporting these conclusions. These conclusions include: Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture; The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report, leading to very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] Wm-2; Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level; At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Palaeo-climatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half-century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years; Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations; Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental

  13. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  14. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  15. The Liability of European States for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Roger H J Cox

    2014-01-01

    According to climate science and the 195 signatory States to the UN Climate Convention, every emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases contributes to climate change. Furthermore, they hold that a two degree Celsius rise of Earth’s average temperature is to be considered as a dangerous climate change to mankind and all of the world’s ecosystems. Using the climate proceedings of Dutch citizens against the Dutch state as a starting point, the author of this case note explains why each European...

  16. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  17. Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs-historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faurby, S.; King, T.L.; Obst, M.; Hallerman, E.M.; Pertoldi, C.; Funch, P.

    2010-01-01

    Populations of the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, have declined, but neither the causes nor the magnitude are fully understood. In order to evaluate historic demography, variation at 12 microsatellite DNA loci surveyed in 1218 L. polyphemus sampled from 28 localities was analysed with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species' distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes in the core of the distribution occurred in association with the recolonization after the Ice Age and also by anthropogenic effects, such as the past overharvest of the species for fertilizer or the current use of the animals as bait for American eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon spp.) fisheries. This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics-a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  18. Uncertainty of Climate Response to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings Due to Different Land Use Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Alexey V. ELISEEV; Igor I. MOKHOV

    2011-01-01

    The A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS) climate model (CM) of intermediatc complexity is extended by a spatially explicit terrestrial carbon cycle module.Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM are performed forced by the reconstructions of anthropogenic and natural forcings for the 16th to the 20th centuries and by combined SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2-LUH (Land Use Harmonization) anthropogenic scenarios for the 21st century.Hereby,the impact of uncertainty in land-use scenarios on results of simulations with a coupled climate-carbon cycle model is tested.The simulations of the model realistically reproduced historical changes in carbon cycle characteristics.In the IAP RAS CM,climate warming reproduced in the 20th and 21st centuries enhanced terrestrial net primary production but terrestrial carbon uptake was suppressed due to an overcompensating increase in soil respiration.Around year 2100,the simulations the model forced by different land use scenarios diverged markedly,by about 70 Pg (C) in terms of biomass and soil carbon stock but they differed only by about 10 in terms of atmospheric carbon dioxide content.

  19. Change of the Asian dust source region deduced from the composition of anthropogenic radionuclides in surface soil in Mongolia

    OpenAIRE

    Igarashi, Y.; Fujiwara, H.; D. Jugder

    2011-01-01

    Recent climate change, especially during the 2000s, may be the primary reason for the expansion of the Asian dust source region. The change in the dust source region was investigated by examining anthropogenic radionuclides contained in surface soil samples from Mongolia. Surface soil was globally labeled by radioactive fallout from nuclear testing during the late 1950s and early 1960s, but there are no current direct sources for anthropogenic radionuclides in the air (before the Fukushima nu...

  20. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  1. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  2. Climate Change and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session “Climate Change and Mitigation” the speake...

  3. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  4. Rainfall-runoff temporal variability in Kermanshah province, Iran and distinguishing anthropogenic effects from climatic effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghafarian, P.; Gholami, S.; Owlad, E.; Gerivani, H.

    2016-08-01

    Investigation of changes in rainfall and runoff patterns in various regions and determining their relationship in the sense of hydrology and climatology are of great importance, considering those patterns efficiently reveal the human and natural factors in this variability. One of the mathematical methods to recognise and model these fluctuations is Wavelet Analysis. This is a spectral method used in multivariate analysis and also tracing fluctuations in temporal series. In this study, continuous wavelet transformation is used to identify temporal changes in rainfall-runoff patterns. The hydrological and rain gauge data were collected from in situ measurements of Kermanshah province located in the western border of Iran. Precipitation anomalies were reconsidered in a number of stations, including Kermanshah, for a period of 55 years (1955-2010) and discharge of Gamasiab River in Polchehr station, discharge of Khoram Rood River in Aran-Gharb station and discharge of Gharasoo River in Polekohne station. In addition, anomalies of the climatic teleconnections were studied to emphasise the climatological effects on the runoff pattern in the region. The role of natural and anthropogenic effects (land use changes) has been distinguished and identified, using the comparison of the teleconnections and hydrological data. The results achieved from three stations show that there was an approximate correlation between rainfall, runoff and teleconnections until the year 1995; however, after 1995, a great difference appeared among them, specifically for the Aran-Gharb station (Khoram Rood River). The post-1995 slope of cumulative standardised anomaly is much steeper in the case of runoff compared to rainfall. As there were no significant climate changes in the region, it could be concluded that the runoff decrease is not caused by climate changes, but by anthropogenic effects, human interventions and extra water usage from the surface and underground water resources for

  5. PERSPECTIVE: On the verge of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriegler, Elmar

    2007-03-01

    The recent publication of the summary for policy makers by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] has injected a renewed sense of urgency to address climate change. It is therefore timely to review the notion of preventing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' as put forward in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The article by Danny Harvey in this issue [2] offers a fresh perspective by rephrasing the concept of 'dangerous interference' as a problem of risk assessment. As Harvey points out, identification of 'dangerous interference' does not require us to know with certainty that future climate change will be dangerous—an impossible task given that our knowledge about future climate change includes uncertainty. Rather, it requires the assertion that interference would lead to a significant probability of dangerous climate change beyond some risk tolerance, and therefore would pose an unacceptable risk. In his article [2], Harvey puts this idea into operation by presenting a back-of-the-envelope calculation to identify allowable CO2 concentrations under uncertainty about climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing and the location of a temperature threshold beyond which dangerous climate change will occur. Conditional on his assumptions, Harvey delivers an interesting result. With the current atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeding 380 ppm, a forcing contribution from other greenhouse gases adding an approximate 100 110 ppm CO2 equivalent on top of it, and a global dimming effect of aerosols that roughly compensates for this contribution (albeit still subject to considerable uncertainty) ([1], figures SPM-1 and 2), we are on the verge of or even committed to dangerous interference with the climate system if we (1) set the risk tolerance for experiencing dangerous climate change to 1% and (2) allocate at least 5% probability to the belief that climate sensitivity is 4

  6. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  7. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  8. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn;

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  9. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  10. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  11. Estimation of natural and anthropogenic contributions to twentieth century temperature change

    OpenAIRE

    S. F. B. Tett; Jones, G. S.; Stott, P. A.; Hill, D. C.; Mitchell, J. F. B.; Allen, M. R.; Ingram, W J; Johns, T. C.; C. E. Johnson; Roberts, D. L.; D. M. H. Sexton; Woodage, M. J.

    2002-01-01

    Using a coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model, we have simulated the climatic response to natural and anthropogenic forcings from 1860 to 1997. The model, HadCM3, requires no flux adjustment and has an interactive sulphur cycle, a simple parameterization of the effect of aerosols on cloud albedo (first indirect effect), and a radiation scheme that allows explicit representation of well-mixed greenhouse gases. Simulations were carried out in which the model was forced with changes...

  12. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  13. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  14. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... and to investigate the institutional dynamics new institutional theory is used with an emphasis on examining institutional mechanisms in relation to building legitimacy for action. The concept of mechanisms can help explain how and why constraints on action occur, and the concept of legitimacy is useful to clarify...... entrepreneurs create windows for action through the establishment of local networks. The thesis contributes knowledge on the constraints of the internal integration process in city governments. It provides explanations of why these constraints occur, and how officials seek to overcome them. The thesis provides...

  15. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  16. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  17. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  18. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  19. Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, P A; Graham, J B; Rosenblatt, R H; Somero, G N

    1993-10-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.

  20. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  1. Current Climate Variability & Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  2. Late Holocene anthropogenic and climatic influences on the regional vegetation of Mexico's Cuenca Oriental

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Tripti; Byrne, Roger

    2016-03-01

    Scholars continue to debate the relative magnitude of pre- and post-Conquest anthropogenic landscape transformation in many regions of Mesoamerica. These debates have important implications for our understanding of the role of anthropogenic practices in the development, or at times degradation, of regional environments. Paleoecological records that provide long-term perspectives on climate change and human land-use patterns are critical to addressing these uncertainties. However, many regions of Mexico including the Cuenca Oriental, a semi-arid basin in the rain shadow of the Sierra Madre Oriental, remain poorly studied. We present a new paleoecological record from sediment cores recovered from Lake Aljojuca, located in the southern part of the basin. Stable isotope analyses of authigenic carbonates provide an independent record of past climate, while pollen and microscopic charcoal provide insights into past vegetation and fire history. The Aljojuca record is one of the only well-dated multi-proxy paleolimnological records from the Cuenca Oriental, and is one of few charcoal studies from highland Mexico. Zea mays pollen and increased fire activity at 2700 calendar years before present (cal yr. BP) suggest Formative period human settlement around the lake. Between 1700 and 800 cal yr BP, a drying climate combined with human uses of fire likely resulted in increases in the extent of xeric scrub vegetation. The Aljojuca record also documents important landscape changes during the historic period (~ 430 cal yr. BP-present) likely related to the introduction of invasive species and agricultural intensification. The Aljojuca record provides a unique perspective on human-environment relationships and highlights differences between landscape transformations in the pre- and post-Conquest periods.

  3. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  4. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  5. Rainfall–runoff temporal variability in Kermanshah province, Iran and distinguishing anthropogenic effects from climatic effects

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P Ghafarian; S Gholami; E Owlad; H Gerivani

    2016-08-01

    Investigation of changes in rainfall and runoff patterns in various regions and determining their relationship in the sense of hydrology and climatology are of great importance, considering those patterns efficiently reveal the human and natural factors in this variability. One of the mathematical methods to recognise and model these fluctuations is Wavelet Analysis. This is a spectral method used in multivariateanalysis and also tracing fluctuations in temporal series. In this study, continuous wavelet transformation is used to identify temporal changes in rainfall–runoff patterns. The hydrological and rain gauge data were collected from in situ measurements of Kermanshah province located in the western border of Iran.Precipitation anomalies were reconsidered in a number of stations, including Kermanshah, for a period of 55 years (1955–2010) and discharge of Gamasiab River in Polchehr station, discharge of Khoram Rood River in Aran-Gharb station and discharge of Gharasoo River in Polekohne station. In addition, anomaliesof the climatic teleconnections were studied to emphasise the climatological effects on the runoff pattern in the region. The role of natural and anthropogenic effects (land use changes) has been distinguished and identified, using the comparison of the teleconnections and hydrological data. The results achieved from three stations show that there was an approximate correlation between rainfall, runoff and teleconnections until the year 1995; however, after 1995, a great difference appeared among them, specifically for the Aran-Gharb station (Khoram Rood River). The post-1995 slope of cumulative standardised anomaly is much steeper in the case of runoff compared to rainfall. As there were no significant climate changes in the region, it could be concluded that the runoff decrease is not caused by climatechanges, but by anthropogenic effects, human interventions and extra water usage from the surface and underground water resources for

  6. Climate change and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The nuclear industry has increased its efforts to have nuclear power plants integrated into the post- Kyoto negotiating process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) states: ''For many reasons, current and future nuclear energy projects are a superior method of generating emission credits that must be considered as the US expands the use of market- based mechanisms designed around emission credit creation and trading to achieve environmental goals ''. The NEI considers that nuclear energy should be allowed to enter all stages of the Kyoto ''flexibility Mechanisms'': emissions trading, joint implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. The industry sees the operation of nuclear reactors as emission ''avoidance actions'' and believes that increasing the generation of nuclear power above the 1990 baseline year either through extension and renewal of operating licenses or new nuclear plant should be accepted under the flexibility mechanisms in the same way as wind, solar and hydro power. For the time being, there is no clear definition of the framework conditions for operating the flexibility mechanisms. However, eligible mechanisms must contribute to the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention of preventing ''dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system''. The information presented in the following sections of this report underlines that nuclear power is not a sustainable source of energy, for many reasons. In conclusion, an efficient greenhouse gas abatement strategy will be based on energy efficiency and not on the use of nuclear power. (author)

  7. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  8. The social construct of climate and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Different time scales of climate change and their differential perception in society are discussed. A historical examination of natural climate changes during the past millennium suggests that short-term changes, especially crucial changes, trigger a significant response in and by society. Short-term changes correspond to the 'time horizon of everyday life', that is, to a time scale from days and weeks to a few years. The anticipated anthropogenic climate changes, however, are expected to occur on a longer time scale. They require a response by society not on the basis of primary experience but on the basis of scientifically constructed scenarios and ways in which such information is represented in the modern media for example. Socio-economic impact research relies on concepts that are based on the premise of perfectly informed actors for the development of optimal adaptation strategies. In contrast to such a conception, we develop the concept of a 'social construct of climate' as decisive for the public perception of scientific knowledge about climate and for public policy on climate change. The concept is illustrated using a number of examples. (orig.)

  9. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    OpenAIRE

    T.M. CORNEA; Dima, M.; Roca, D.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ...

  10. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...

  11. Climatic and anthropogenic stress on water levels: basin-scale observations with seismic noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecocq, Thomas; Pedersen, Helle; Brenguier, Florent; Stammler, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    Monitoring changes in shear wave velocities within the crust have become possible through recently developed techniques based on seismic noise analysis. In the present work we address the challenge of using these techniques for environmental monitoring at upper crustal level. Our work is based on data from the broadband Gräfenberg array (Germany) which was installed in 1976 and for which the continuous data acquired has been preserved until today. Using state of the art pre-processing and cross-correlation techniques (MSNoise), we computed daily cross-correlation functions (CCF) between 4 stations (6 pairs) of the Gräfenberg array over the period 1977-2007. The daily CCFs are then stacked to form an average CCF per month. Instead of doing classic "one versus reference" comparisons, the monthly CCFs are compared pairwise using Moving Window Cross-Spectral analysis (MWCS). In total, 387 720 MWCS have been computed between 20 s and 80 s lapse time to obtain relative velocity changes (dv/v). All dv/v are then inverted using a Bayesian weighted least square procedure. Depending on the smoothing weight used during the inversion, seasonal to long term trends can be evidenced. The results show clear and stable trends in the data. We present possible causes explaining these trends and abrupt changes of dv/v by showing modelled (GLDAS) and observed climatic data together with anthropogenic observables. A combination of climatic (warmer surface temperatures, less rainfall) and anthropogenic (more population, more irrigated land) factors are the most probable causes of the progressive relative increase of seismic velocities under the Gräfenberg array. We interpret these results as a progressive depletion of the water resources in the large karstified Malm reservoir (Late Jurassic) below the array.

  12. CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC STATUS. PRESENT AND PERSPECTIVES

    OpenAIRE

    Scientific researcher III Ph.D Surugiu Camelia; Scientific researcher III Ph.D Surugiu Marius-Razvan

    2009-01-01

    Climate change, currently affecting the entire planet, is considered by the specialists the result of the increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Sectors such as agriculture, transport, energy, tourism and also food security, population health, water resources, and ecosystems become vulnerable to the changes in climate. The climate change could generate costs and benefits for the Romanian seaside and mountain tourism, the multiple linear regression models proving that the tourism demand...

  13. Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    KRIEGLER Elmar; O'Neill, Brian-C; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Kram, Tom; Moss, Richard-H; Lempert, Robert; Wilbanks, Thomas J

    2010-01-01

    Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. They have been applied for different purposes and to a different degree in various areas of climate change analysis, typically in combination with projections of future climate change. Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) has used them to develop greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios for the 21st century and to investigate strategies...

  14. Effects of Anthropogenic Disturbance and Climate on Patterns of Bat Fly Parasitism

    OpenAIRE

    Shai Pilosof; Dick, Carl W.; Carmi Korine; Patterson, Bruce D.; Boris R Krasnov

    2012-01-01

    Environmental conditions, including anthropogenic disturbance, can significantly alter host and parasite communities. Yet, our current knowledge is based mainly on endoparasites, while ectoparasites remain little studied. We studied the indirect effects of anthropogenic disturbance (human population density) and climate (temperature, precipitation and elevation) on abundance of highly host-specific bat flies in four Neotropical bat species across 43 localities in Venezuela. We formulated a se...

  15. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  16. Observational estimates of planetary albedo changes due to anthropogenic effects /

    OpenAIRE

    Pistone, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    A major driver of both the Earth's natural climate variability and current climate change is the net solar input to the Earth system, i.e. the amount of incident solar radiation minus the fraction reflected back to space. Changes in this so-called albedo may have substantial effects on the Earth's climate. I use observations to address aspects of both the Arctic sea ice -albedo feedback and the albedo effects of aerosols on Indian Ocean cumulus clouds. In Chapter 2, I use satellite radiation ...

  17. CO2 Increase: Questions Beyond Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Beckmann, G.; Klopries, B.

    1990-01-01

    The increase of the tropospheric C02 (carbon dioxide) concentration is considered by scientists all over the world to be an alarming signal, as becomes evident from the huge amount of literature on the subject. The so-called greenhouse-gas effect, or, more precisely, its anthropogenic component, is mainly caused by the C02 increase. However, other trace gases have also contributed their share. Far-reaching climatic changes, a temperature increase in the tropospheric air, especially in the po...

  18. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  19. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  20. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  1. Complex response of the forest nitrogen cycle to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Bernal, Susana; Hedin, L. O.; Likens, G. E.; Gerber, S; D. Buso

    2012-01-01

    Climate exerts a powerful influence on biological processes, but the effects of climate change on ecosystem nutrient flux and cycling are poorly resolved. Although rare, long-term records offer a unique opportunity to disentangle effects of climate from other anthropogenic influences. Here, we examine the longest and most complete record of watershed nutrient and climate dynamics available worldwide, which was collected at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United State...

  2. Climate change and persistent high temperatures: does it matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Aral, Mustafa M.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change may affect the behavior of various systems on earth, one of which is human population. In the current literature, it is hypothesized that anthropogenic impacts on earth may yield persistent and adverse climatic conditions which may become the norm rather than an exception. Given these climatic conditions, the world population may lose its stability and these climate conditions may trigger population shifts that may be characterized by regional migration patterns or loss of popu...

  3. CLIMATE CHANGE AND PERSISTENT HIGH TEMPERATURES: DOES IT MATTER?

    OpenAIRE

    Aral, Mustafa M.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change may affect the behavior of various systems on earth, one of which is human population. In the current literature, it is hypothesized that anthropogenic impacts on earth may yield persistent and adverse climatic conditions which may become the norm rather than an exception. Given these climatic conditions, the world population may lose its stability and these climate conditions may trigger population shifts that may be characterized by regional migration patterns or loss of popu...

  4. Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

    2007-01-01

    Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the

  5. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  6. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  7. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  8. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  9. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Carmin; K. Tierney; E. Chu; L.M. Hunter; J.T. Roberts; L. Shi

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  10. Distinguishing between anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size: a modeling approach using data from Ebinur Lake in arid northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Ma

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size variation is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining societal development. We assumed that climate and human activity are the only drivers of lake-size variation and are independent of each other. We then evaluated anthropogenic and climatic effects on hydrological processes, using a multivariate linear model. Macro-economic data were used to describe the anthropogenic impact on lake surface area in our approach. Ebinur Lake is a shallow, closed, saline lake in arid northwest China; it has shrunk at a rapid rate over the past half century. Using our new method, we explored temporal trends of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on the lake over the past 50 years. Assessment indices indicate that the model represents observed data quite well. Compared with the reference period of 1955-1960, impacts of climate change across the catchment were generally positive with respect to lake area, except for the period from 1961 to 1970. Human activity was responsible for a reduction in lake surface area of 286.8 km2 over the last 50 years. Our approach, which uses economic variables to describe the anthropogenic impact on lake surface area, enables us to explain the lake responses to climate change and human activities quantitatively.

  11. Challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husaini, Amjad M

    2014-01-01

    Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

  12. Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Mahowald

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

  13. Regional and global temperature response to anthropogenic SO2 emissions from China in three climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, Matthew; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-08-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  14. Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Climatic Data

    CERN Document Server

    Loehle, Craig; 10.2174/1874282301105010074

    2012-01-01

    The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the Hadley global temperature data up to 1950 (time period before anthropogenic emissions became the dominant forcing mechanism), and then extrapolated from 1951 to 2009. After subtraction of the model, the residuals showed an approximate linear upward trend after 1942. Herein we assume that the residual upward warming observed during the second half of the 20th century has been mostly induced by a worldwide rapid increase of anthropogenic emissions, urbanization and land use change. The warming observed before 1942 is relatively small and it is assumed to have been mostly naturally induced by a climatic recovery since the Little Ice Age of the 17th century and the Dalton Minimum at the beginning of the 19th century. The resulting full natural plus anthropogenic model fits the enti...

  15. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  16. Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination under Rapid Anthropogenic Environmental Change: Evolution at a Turtle's Pace?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refsnider, Jeanine M; Janzen, Fredric J

    2016-01-01

    Organisms become adapted to their environment by evolving through natural selection, a process that generally transpires over many generations. Currently, anthropogenically driven environmental changes are occurring orders of magnitude faster than they did prior to human influence, which could potentially outpace the ability of some organisms to adapt. Here, we focus on traits associated with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), a classic polyphenism, in a model turtle species to address the evolutionary potential of species with TSD to respond to rapid climate change. We show, first, that sex-ratio outcomes in species with TSD are sensitive to climatic variation. We then identify the evolutionary potential, in terms of heritability, of TSD and quantify the evolutionary potential of 3 key traits involved in TSD: pivotal temperature, maternal nest-site choice, and nesting phenology. We find that these traits display different patterns of adaptive potential: pivotal temperature exhibits moderate heritable variation, whereas nest-site choice and nesting phenology, with considerable phenotypic plasticity, have only modest evolutionary potential to alter sex ratios. Therefore, the most likely response of species with TSD to anthropogenically induced climate change may be a combination of microevolution in thermal sensitivity of the sex-determining pathway and of plasticity in maternal nesting behavior. PMID:26245920

  17. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  18. Outchasing climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    Pygmy possums, monarch butterflies, spoon-billed sandpipers, and a number of trees and other plants could be among the species unable to migrate fast enough to new habitat in the face of potential global climate changes, according to an August 30 report by the Switzerland-based World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the U.S. based Clean-Air-Cool Planet (CACP), two conservation organizations.

  19. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  20. Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Recent climatic conditions (i.e. drier than average conditions for the last 10 years or more) have placed many water resource systems in south-eastern Australia near critical thresholds. Management systems are, or soon will be, at the limits of their adaptive capacity. While it is possible this situation largely reflects vulnerability to natural climatic variability, impacts of anthropogenic climate change may further expose the vulnerability of these systems. Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. In many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades, and is also being increasingly affected by anthropogenic influences. Both factors will continue to influence Australia's climate, even if immediate action is taken to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Long-term resource planning by water authorities must account for both climate variation and climate change to avoid over-allocation of water resources and to ensure economic activity based on utilisation of water resources is not unnecessarily restricted. Awareness of the vulnerability of water resources to anthropogenic climate change and uncertainty about the nature of those changes has lead to a reappraisal of which climate sequence(s) should be used in water resource planning

  1. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  2. Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.; Streets, David G.

    2009-04-01

    This study examines the effects of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, and the resulting feedback to natural emissions and air quality. Speciated sector- and region-specific 2030 emission factors were developed to produce gas and particle emission inventories that followed Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 emission trajectories. Current and future climate model simulations were run, in which anthropogenic emission changes affected climate, which fed back to natural emissions from lightning (NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, H2O2, HO2, CO), soils (dust, bacteria, NO, N2O, H2, CH4, H2S, DMS, OCS, CS2), the ocean (bacteria, sea spray, DMS, N2O, H2, CH4), vegetation (pollen, spores, isoprene, monoterpenes, methanol, other VOCs), and photosynthesis/respiration. New methods were derived to calculate lightning flash rates as a function of size-resolved collisions and other physical principles and pollen, spore, and bacteria emissions. Although the B1 scenario was "cleaner" than the A1B scenario, global warming increased more in the B1 scenario because much A1B warming was masked by additional reflective aerosol particles. Thus neither scenario is entirely beneficial from a climate and health perspective, and the best control measure is to reduce warming gases and warming/cooling particles together. Lightning emissions declined by ˜3% in the B1 scenario and ˜12% in the A1B scenario as the number of ice crystals, thus charge-separating bounceoffs, decreased. Net primary production increased by ˜2% in both scenarios. Emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes increased by ˜1% in the A1B scenario and 4-5% in the B1 scenario. Near-surface ozone increased by ˜14% in the A1B scenario and ˜4% in the B1 scenario, reducing ambient isoprene in the latter case. Gases from soils increased in both scenarios due to higher temperatures. Near-surface PM2.5 mass increased by ˜2% in the A1B scenario and decreased by ˜2% in the B1 scenario. The resulting 1.4% higher

  3. Climate change and climate policy; Klimaendringer og klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done

  4. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  5. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  6. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. CORNEA

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ecosystems, and human settlements are susceptible to variations in the storage, fluxes, and quality of water and sensitive to climate change. From urban and agricultural water supplies to flood management and aquatic ecosystem protection, global warming is affecting all aspects of water resource management. Rising temperatures, loss of snowpack, escalating size and frequency of flood events, and rising sea levels are just some of the impacts of climate change that have broad implications for the management of water resources. With robust scientific evidence showing that human-induced climate change is occurring, it is critical to understand how water quantity and quality might be affected. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the environmental risks caused by climate anomalies on water resources, to examine the negative impacts of a greenhouse warming on the supply and demand for water and the resulting socio-economic implications.

  7. Historical anthropogenic radiative forcing of changes in biogenic secondary aerosol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acosta Navarro, Juan; D'Andrea, Stephen; Pierce, Jeffrey; Ekman, Annica; Struthers, Hamish; Zorita, Eduardo; Guenther, Alex; Arneth, Almut; Smolander, Sampo; Kaplan, Jed; Farina, Salvatore; Scott, Catherine; Rap, Alexandru; Farmer, Delphine; Spracklen, Domink; Riipinen, Ilona

    2016-04-01

    Human activities have lead to changes in the energy balance of the Earth and the global climate. Changes in atmospheric aerosols are the second largest contributor to climate change after greenhouse gases since 1750 A.D. Land-use practices and other environmental drivers have caused changes in the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) well before 1750 A.D, possibly causing climate effects through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Two numerical emission models LPJ-GUESS and MEGAN were used to quantify the changes in aerosol forming BVOC emissions in the past millennium. A chemical transport model of the atmosphere (GEOS-Chem-TOMAS) was driven with those BVOC emissions to quantify the effects on radiation caused by millennial changes in SOA. We found that global isoprene emissions decreased after 1800 A.D. by about 12% - 15%. This decrease was dominated by losses of natural vegetation, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions increased by about 2% - 10%, driven mostly by rising surface air temperatures. From 1000 A.D. to 1800 A.D, isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions decline by 3% - 8% driven by both, natural vegetation losses, and the moderate global cooling between the medieval climate anomaly and the little ice age. The millennial reduction in BVOC emissions lead to a 0.5% to 2% reduction in climatically relevant aerosol particles (> 80 nm) and cause a direct radiative forcing between +0.02 W/m² and +0.07 W/m², and an indirect radiative forcing between -0.02 W/m² and +0.02 W/m².

  8. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  9. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  10. Economic impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and ma...

  11. Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Zeebe, Richard E.

    2013-01-01

    Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth’s surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth’s climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually consid...

  12. The consequences of poaching and anthropogenic change for forest elephants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, Thomas; Maisels, Fiona; Fishlock, Vicki

    2016-10-01

    Poaching has devastated forest elephant populations (Loxodonta cyclotis), and their habitat is dramatically changing. The long-term effects of poaching and other anthropogenic threats have been well studied in savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana), but the impacts of these changes for Central Africa's forest elephants have not been discussed. We examined potential repercussions of these threats and the related consequences for forest elephants in Central Africa by summarizing the lessons learned from savannah elephants and small forest elephant populations in West Africa. Forest elephant social organization is less known than the social organization of savannah elephants, but the close evolutionary history of these species suggests that they will respond to anthropogenic threats in broadly similar ways. The loss of older, experienced individuals in an elephant population disrupts ecological, social, and population parameters. Severe reduction of elephant abundance within Central Africa's forests can alter plant communities and ecosystem functions. Poaching, habitat alterations, and human population increase are probably compressing forest elephants into protected areas and increasing human-elephant conflict, which negatively affects their conservation. We encourage conservationists to look beyond documenting forest elephant population decline and address the causes of these declines when developing conversation strategies. We suggest assessing the effectiveness of the existing protected-area networks for landscape connectivity in light of current industrial and infrastructure development. Longitudinal assessments of the effects of landscape changes on forest elephant sociality and behavior are also needed. Finally, lessons learned from West African elephant population loss and habitat fragmentation should be used to inform strategies for land-use planning and managing human-elephant interactions.

  13. Climate change, agriculture and poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  14. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  15. Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

  16. Climate change sentiment on Twitter: An unsolicited public opinion poll

    CERN Document Server

    Cody, Emily M; Mitchell, Lewis; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. We determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.

  17. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  18. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  19. Detecting and attributing an anthropogenic influence on climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santer, B.D.; Taylor, K.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore (United States); Jones, P.D. [East Anglia Univ. (United States). Climatic Research Unit; Wigley, T.M.L. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder (United States); Penner, J.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore (United States). Global Climate Research Div.; Cubasch, U. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    A pattern correlation statistic is used, R(t), to compare the observed pattern temperature change with that predicted by the equilibrium model results with carbon dioxide and sulphate aerosols forcing. The results indicate that in JJA and SON the pattern of changes is showing similarities with the observations. The significance of the trends in R(t) is assessed, using the century-long control integrations of two coupled ocean atmosphere GCMs. Although results are robust to both model integrations there are doubts whether such models adequately represent the full range of natural variability on the century timescale when compared with paleoclimatic data. (author)

  20. Global albedo change and radiative cooling from anthropogenic land-cover change, 1700 to 2005 based on MODIS, land-use harmonization and radiative kernels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widespread anthropogenic land-cover change over the last five centuries has influenced the global climate system through both biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Models indicate that warming from carbon emissions associated with land cover conversion have been partially offset if not outweigh...

  1. Mid to Late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, J.; Noe-Nygaard, Nanna; Wolfe, B. B.

    2010-01-01

    to changing sea surface temperatures in the Greenland, Iceland and Norwegian seas. After 2,800 cal year BP, sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, d13CORG, d13Ccarb and d18Ocarb indicate a major reduction on water level, which caused the depositional setting at the coring site to shift from the profundal...

  2. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  3. Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Heltberg, Rasmus; Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natura...

  4. A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Gardali; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

    2012-01-01

    Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified clim...

  5. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. ...... species assemblage in responses to recent climate change. Even among the most mobile species and without anthropogenic barriers to dispersal, these pollinators have been unable to extend their ranges as fast as required to keep pace with climate change....

  6. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland......) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  7. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  8. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought o...

  9. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  10. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Hannah, L.; Roehrdanz, PR; Ikegami, M; Shepard, AV; Shaw; Tabor, G; Zhi, L; Marquet, PA; Hijmans, RJ

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticul...

  11. Climate change and catchment hydrology

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Conor

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter catchment hydrology through changes in extremes of flooding and drought. River catchments are complex, dynamic systems and it is important to develop our understanding of how these systems are likely to respond to changes in climate. Work is ongoing in using EC-Earth simulations to further our understanding of how climate change will affect catchment hydrology and flood risk. In Ireland, the importance of this task is emphasised ...

  12. Anthropogenic and Climate Influences on Biogeochemical Dynamics and Molecular-Level Speciation of Soil Sulfur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solomon, D.; Lehmann, J; Kinyangi, J; Pell, A; Theis , J; Riha , S; Ngoze, S; Amelung, W; du Preez, C; et. al.

    2009-01-01

    The soil environment is a primary component of the global biogeochemical sulfur (S) cycle, acting as a source and sink of various S species and mediating oxidation state changes. However, ecological significance of the various S forms and the impacts of human intervention and climate on the amount and structural composition of these compounds are still poorly understood. We investigated the long-term influences of anthropogenically mediated transitions from natural to managed ecosystems on molecular-level speciation, biogeochemical dynamics, and the apparent temperature sensitivity of S moieties in temperate, subtropical, and tropical environments with mean annual temperature (MAT) ranging from 5C to 21C, using elemental analysis and X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy. Land-use and land-cover changes led to the depletion of total soil S in all three ecoregions over a period of up to 103 years. The largest decline occurred from tropical forest agroecosystems (67% Kakamega and 76% Nandi, Kenya), compared to losses from temperate (36% at Lethbridge, Canada, and 40% at Pendleton, USA) and subtropical (48% at South Africa) grassland agroecosystems. The total S losses correlated significantly with MAT. Anthropogenic interventions profoundly altered the molecular-level composition and resulted in an apparent shift in oxidation states of organic S from native ecosystems composed primarily of S moieties in intermediate and highly reduced oxidation states toward managed agroecosystems dominated by organic S rich in strongly oxidized functionalities. The most prominent change occurred in thiols and sulfides, the proportion of which decreased by 46% (Lethbridge) and 57% (Pendleton) in temperate agroecosystems, by 46% in subtropical agroecosystems, and by 79% (Nandi) and 81% (Kakamega) in tropical agroecosystems. The proportion of organic S directly linked to O increased by 81%, 168%, 40%, 92%, and 85%, respectively. Among the various organic S

  13. Symbiont diversity may help coral reefs survive moderate climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Baskett, ML; Gaines, SD; Nisbet, RM

    2009-01-01

    Given climate change, thermal stress-related mass coral-bleaching events present one of the greatest anthropogenic threats to coral reefs. While corals and their symbiotic algae may respond to future temperatures through genetic adaptation and shifts in community compositions, the climate may change too rapidly for coral response. To test this potential for response, here we develop a model of coral and symbiont ecological dynamics and symbiont evolutionary dynamics. Model results without var...

  14. Coastal sediment elevation change following anthropogenic mangrove clearing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayden, Heather L.; Granek, Elise F.

    2015-11-01

    Coastal mangrove forests along tropical shorelines serve as an important interface between land and sea. They provide a physical buffer protecting the coastline from erosion and act as sediment "traps" catching terrestrial sediment, thus preventing smothering of subtidal coral reefs. Coastal development that removes mangrove habitat may impact adjacent nearshore coral reefs through sedimentation and nutrient loading. We examined differences in sediment elevation change between patches of open-coast intact and anthropogenically cleared red mangroves (Rhizophora mangle) on the east side of Turneffe Atoll, Belize, to quantify changes following mangrove clearing. Samples were collected over a 24 month period at five study sites, each containing paired intact (+mangrove) and cleared (-mangrove) plots. Five sediment elevation pins were deployed in each plot: behind areas cleared of mangroves (-mangrove) and behind adjacent intact mangroves (+mangrove). Sediment elevation increased at intact mangrove sites (M = +3.83 mm, SE = 0.95) whereas cleared mangrove areas suffered elevation loss (M = -7.30 mm, SE = 3.38). Mangroves inshore of partial or continuous gaps in the adjacent fringing reefs had higher rates of elevation loss (M = -15.05 mm) than mangroves inshore of continuous fringing reefs (M = -1.90 mm). Our findings provide information on potential effects of mangrove clearing and the role of offshore habitat characteristics on coastal sediment trapping and maintenance of sediment elevation by mangroves. With implications for coastline capacity to adjust to sea level rise, these findings are relevant to management of coastal fringing mangrove forests across the Caribbean.

  15. Precipitation Extremes: Considerations for Anthropogenically-forced Future Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkel, K.; Young, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Third National Climate Assessment states that "increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions". While that general statement was made with high confidence, the practical implications for decision-makers are much less clear. In particular, engineering design needs quantitative estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) values for the future in order to optimize runoff control structures for future climate conditions. This can be realized by simply analyzing the precipitation data from global climate model simulations of the future. However, confidence in the resulting values suffers from the known issues with GCM simulation of precipitation. In addition, skepticism about the accuracy of climate models negatively affects potential adoption of revised values in the engineering design community. We contend that scientists need a multi-pronged approach to develop PMP/IDF values that can be defended, explained, and promoted in order to maximize societal benefits and avoid catastrophic events. This talk will discuss considerations that could/should form the basis for design values. While global-warming induced increases in atmospheric water vapor content are nearly certain and form the foundation for expected increases in extreme precipitation, they most likely will be modulated by changes in global atmospheric dynamics and the consequent effects on local weather system climatology. This can be seen currently in the unexplained regional variations in recent trends in extreme precipitation frequency and intensity. We need to be able to understand recent trends, when greenhouse gas forcing of the climate systems has been rapidly increasing, in order to produce confident projections of future extreme precipitation.

  16. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  17. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K.; Polly J Ericksen; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  18. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith;

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  19. Change of the Asian dust source region deduced from the relationship between anthropogenic radionuclides in surface soil and precipitation in Mongolia

    OpenAIRE

    Igarashi, Y.; Fujiwara, H.; D. Jugder

    2011-01-01

    The Asian dust source region may be expanding primarily as a result of recent climate change, especially during the 2000s. This change was investigated by examining anthropogenic radionuclides contained in surface soil samples from Mongolia. Surface soil was globally labeled by radioactive fallout from nuclear testing during the late 1950s and early 1960s. There are no current direct sources for anthropogenic radionuclides in the air, so the radionuclides in the atmosphere are mainly carried ...

  20. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  1. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  2. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  3. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  4. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  5. Northern peatlands in global climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

  6. Impact of anthropogenic heat release on regional climate in three vast urban agglomerations in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jinming; Wang, Jun; Yan, Zhongwei

    2014-03-01

    We simulated the impact of anthropogenic heat release (AHR) on the regional climate in three vast city agglomerations in China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested high-resolution modeling. Based on energy consumption and high-quality land use data, we designed two scenarios to represent no-AHR and current-AHR conditions. By comparing the results of the two numerical experiments, changes of surface air temperature and precipitation due to AHR were quantified and analyzed. We concluded that AHR increases the temperature in these urbanized areas by about 0.5°C—1°C, and this increase is more pronounced in winter than in other seasons. The inclusion of AHR enhances the convergence of water vapor over urbanized areas. Together with the warming of the lower troposphere and the enhancement of ascending motions caused by AHR, the average convective available potential energy in urbanized areas is increased. Rainfall amounts in summer over urbanized areas are likely to increase and regional precipitation patterns to be altered to some extent.

  7. International aspects of climate change: The intergovernmental panel on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impact of various international conferences concerning global climate change on international opinions and attitudes is discussed. A number of conferences over the past two decades have drawn attention to the large socio-economic consequences of climate change. There has been increasing attention given to the likely affect of anthropogenically derived greenhouse gases on the global climate. Some early uncertainty over the likely long term changes in global temperature have been replaced by a scientific consensus that global temperatures are increasing and will continue to do so into the next century. Public awareness of the possibility of climate change and severe socio-economic consequences has been increasing and was given a major impetus by the Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere. An estimate of the possible time to solution of the climate change issue is given as 1988-2005, a span of 17 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has focused work into three working groups examining science, impacts and response strategies. 28 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

  8. Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fields, P.A.; Graham, J.B.; Rosenblatt, R.H.; Somero, G.N. (University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States). Scripps Institute of Oceanography)

    1993-10-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.

  9. The long-term effect of urbanization and anthropogenic heat release on climate across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Feng, J.

    2013-12-01

    The human activities impact on the urban heat island (UHI) is directly through anthropogenic heat release, and indirectly through the land use configuration. In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) is employed to simulate the regional impacts on climate under the two scenarios in China: the underlying surface changes due to urbanization (USCU), and anthropogenic heat release (AHR). Three experiments were performed from January 2000 to February 2010. USCU decreases the summer and winter low cloud cover over most east China, and almost the energy flux increase except that the latent heat and the up solar wave, summer temperature increases obviously, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta region with an increase of 1.13°C and 1.22°C; AHR increases the variable change including the low cloud cover and all the energy flux and temperatures; the most striking winter temperature change region occurs also in the Yangtze River Delta region added by 0.63°C. USCU has the greatest impact on the summer precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which has reduced amplitude value of 20.43 percent. The USCU decreases the surface soil humidity and increases the surface soil temperature in most east China. In the three urban agglomerations, summer surface wind increases apparently but winter surface wind reduce obviously affected by USCU. The low pressure level is the south wind with the amplitude less than 1m/s and the two cyclonic vorticity exists in the summer, there is the same wind direction in the winter, but without the apparent cyclonic vorticity and small wind speed under the USCU. In the AHR, the prevailing wind direction is north wind and two rise circulation between 30°N and 40°N in the summer, the principal winter wind direction is south with the same two rise circulation nearby former two latitude. The summer index almost increases under the USCU scenario, but AHR

  10. Conflict in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  11. Role of natural and anthropogenic factors in global and regional climate transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalenko, Vladimir A.; Zherebtsov, Gelii A.

    2003-04-01

    Presented is the evidence for the actual manifestation of solar variability in climatic characteristics of the Prebaikalye. This influence on surface air temperature was quantified. A high degree of correlation was established between the mean power of a solar activity cycle and the surface air temperature in the Prebaikalye, averaged over a solar cycle period. It is shown that the main meaningful air temperature variations in the region for the period 1881-1960 were caused by solar activity. The temperature variation amplitude for that period was 1°C. Since the 1960s until the present, with the influence of solar variability persisting, there has been an obvious forcing of another factor whose role was steadily increasing so that as recently as in the last decade it exceeded the contribution from solar variability. For the period 1960-1997, the temperature rise that was not associated with solar variability, was 1.7°C. This new factor is most likely to be the global variations of the thermal regime of the atmosphere that are caused by the anthropogenic factor. This assumption is in agreement with model calculations, pointing to the fact that the most significant manifestation of a global warming should be expected in inland regions of Eurasia. An analysis of the seasonal variations in ground temperature showed that the variations that are taking place to date are most clearly pronounced in the winter-spring period and are associated with a reduction of the stationary period of the Siberian anticyclone. This suggests that the mechanism responsible for the realization of variability factors of regional climate is the global atmospheric circulation rather than a local change of the energy balance of the atmosphere.

  12. Urban Growth and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.

    2008-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2030, the share of the world's population that lives in cities is predicted to grow from 30% to 60%. This urbanization has consequences for the likelihood of climate change and for the social costs that climate change will impose on the world's quality of life. This paper examines how urbanization affects greenhouse gas production, and it studies how urbanites in the developed and developing world will adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.

  13. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  14. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  15. Contemporary limnological and sedimentary analyses to investigate anthropogenic changes in nutrient fluxes at Lake Baikal, Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, S.; McGowan, S.; Swann, G. E. A.; Mackay, A. W.; Panizzo, V.; Vologina, E.

    2014-12-01

    Large tectonic freshwater lakes face serious threats to their water quality, biological diversity and endemism through pollution and global warming. Lake Baikal is an important example as anthropogenic stressors (industrial pollution and cultural eutrophication) along with climate change could greatly affect the lake's unique ecosystem and pristine water conditions. Phosphorus, nitrogen and silica are thought to control phytoplankton development, however recent changes in nutrient impacts on Lake Baikal's phytoplankton remains unproven. This research aims to investigate the effect of anthropogenic and environmentally-driven changes on this large and biodiverse lake through seasonal sampling of the phytoplankton community (determined by chlorophyll and carotenoid pigments), chemical parameters (total phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, silicate, nitrate and other major ions) and vertical profiles of pH, temperature and photosynethetically active radiation. Results show seasonal, vertical and spatial variability in the lake's phytoplankton biomass and composition with higher summer mixed-layer pigment concentrations in the south basin resulting in higher light attenuation coefficients and lower photic zone depths (R2=0.86, p mixing layer, with the strongest negative correlation between picoplankton biomarkers and dissolved organic carbon concentrations (R2=-0.60, p < 0.05). Geochemical biomarkers (pigments and organic carbon [δ13Corganic]) from several sediment cores place these modern day observations within an historical context and allow the impact of past environmental changes on Lake Baikal's primary productivity over the last 60 years and natural climate-driven trends in past centuries to be assessed. These results show clear spatial and temporal changes between sites over this interval with greater increases in chlorophylls and their transformation products, along with biomarkers for diatoms, cryptophytes, green algae and cyanobacteria within the south and

  16. Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....

  17. The role of climatic and anthropogenic stresses on long-term runoff reduction from the Loess Plateau, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaoming; Cheng, Wei; Fu, Bojie; Lü, Yihe

    2016-11-15

    Human intervention has strongly altered patterns of river runoff. Yet, few studies have addressed the complexity and nonlinearity of the anthropogenic stresses on runoff or their interaction with climate. We study the Loess Plateau in China, whose river runoff contributes 65% of the discharge to the middle reach of the Yellow River; this landscape has been shaped by human activity and is intensively managed. Our purpose is to characterize the interactive roles of climate and human activities in defining river runoff from the Loess Plateau. Applying a transient analysis to discover the time-varying runoff trend and impact factors, we found that the average runoff in the Loess Plateau decreased continuously during the period 1961-2009 (average rate of -0.9mmyear(-1), Panthropogenic transition, causing a 56% reduction in available freshwater resources during the period 1961-2009. These findings highlight the need for studies that address the dynamic and nonlinear processes controlling the availability of freshwater resources in the light of anthropogenic influences applied under a changing climate. Such studies are essential if we are to meet the human water demand in the Loess Plateau region. PMID:27422727

  18. Climate change - a natural hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kininmonth, William

    2003-07-01

    The impacts of weather and climate extremes (floods, storms, drought, etc) have historically set back development and will continue to do so into the future, especially in developing countries. It is essential to understand how future climate change will be manifest as weather and climate extremes in order to implement policies of sustainable development. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that natural processes have caused the climate to change and it is unlikely that human influences will dominate the natural processes. Any suggestion that implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will avoid future infrastructure damage, environmental degradation and loss of life from weather and climate extremes is a grand delusion. (Author)

  19. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  20. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  1. Climate Change: Geophysical Puzzles and Some Answers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, S. F.

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is a complex subject, involving many disciplines of geophysics - from geodynamics and meteorology to solar-terrestrial relationships and solar-planetary dynamics. We will discuss a number of scientific puzzles, many still unanswered: · How much of climate change of the past century is anthropogenic and how much is caused by Nature? · How reliable are temperature data of the atmosphere and of the surface, including sea surface? · How reliable are climate models used to calculate future temperatures? · How good is the evidence for solar forcing of climate? · On a decadal time scale, is natural forcing mainly solar or due to internal oscillations? · Can the 1500-year cycle discovered in ice cores explain the Medieval Warming and Little Ice Age? · Why does sea level rise show no acceleration - and how to account for its observed magnitude? -------------------------------------------------------------------- Much of the presentation is based on the NIPCC report "Nature - Not Human Activity - Rules the Climate" http://www.sepp.org/publications/NIPCC_final.pdf

  2. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  3. Climate Change, Politics and Religion: Australian Churchgoers’ Beliefs about Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam Pepper

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A growing literature has sought to understand the relationships between religion, politics and views about climate change and climate change policy in the United States. However, little comparative research has been conducted in other countries. This study draws on data from the 2011 Australian National Church Life Survey to examine the beliefs of Australian churchgoers from some 20 denominations about climate change—whether or not it is real and whether it is caused by humans—and political factors that explain variation in these beliefs. Pentecostals, Baptist and Churches of Christ churchgoers, and people from the smallest Protestant denominations were less likely than other churchgoers to believe in anthropogenic climate change, and voting and hierarchical and individualistic views about society predicted beliefs. There was some evidence that these views function differently in relation to climate change beliefs depending on churchgoers’ degree of opposition to gay rights. These findings are of interest not only for the sake of international comparisons, but also in a context where Australia plays a role in international climate change politics that is disproportionate to its small population.

  4. Lay representations on climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Cabecinhas, Rosa; Lázaro, Alexandra; Carvalho, Anabela

    2006-01-01

    Lay representations on climate change were mapped via the free-word association method in two pilot studies. Participants were asked to generate words associated to “the big problems faced by humankind nowadays” (1st study) and to “climate change” (2nd study). Climate change was not spontaneously evoked by the participants in the first study: pollution was among the top 10 problems, but references to other environmental issues were very low. In the second study, climate change was consid...

  5. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  6. The International Climate Change Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamin, Farhana; Depledge, Joanna

    2005-01-01

    Aimed at the increasing number of policy-makers, stakeholders, researchers, and other professionals working on climate change, this volume presents a detailed description and analysis of the international regime established in 1992 to combat the threat of global climate change. It provides a comprehensive accessible guide to a high-profile area of international law and politics, covering not only the obligations and rights of countries, but ongoing climate negotiations as well.

  7. Ground water and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Richard G; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the...

  8. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  9. A model approach to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Earth is warming up, with potentially disastrous consequences. Computer climate models based on physics are our best hope of predicting and managing climate change, as Adam Scaife, Chris Folland and John Mitchell explain. This month scientists from over 60 nations on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of their latest report on global warming. In the report the panel concludes that it is very likely that most of the 0.5 deg. C increase in global temperature over the last 50 years is due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. And the science suggests that much greater changes are in store: by 2100 anthropogenic global warming could be comparable to the warming of about 6 deg. C since the last ice age. The consequences of global warming could be catastrophic. As the Earth continues to heat up, the frequency of floods and droughts is likely to increase, water supplies and ecosystems will be placed under threat, agricultural practices will have to be changed and millions of people may be displaced as the sea level rises. The global economy could also be severely affected. The scientific consensus is that the observed warming of the Earth during the past half-century is mostly due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Predicting climate change depends on sophisticated computer models developed over the past 50 years. Climate models are based on the Navier-Stokes equations for fluid flow, which are solved numerically on a grid covering the globe. These models have been very successful in simulating the past climate, giving researchers confidence in their predictions. The most likely value for the global temperature increase by 2100 is in the range 1.4-5.8 deg. C, which could have catastrophic consequences. (U.K.)

  10. Effects of anthropogenic disturbance and climate on patterns of bat fly parasitism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shai Pilosof

    Full Text Available Environmental conditions, including anthropogenic disturbance, can significantly alter host and parasite communities. Yet, our current knowledge is based mainly on endoparasites, while ectoparasites remain little studied. We studied the indirect effects of anthropogenic disturbance (human population density and climate (temperature, precipitation and elevation on abundance of highly host-specific bat flies in four Neotropical bat species across 43 localities in Venezuela. We formulated a set of 11 a priori hypotheses that included a combination of the two effectors and host species. Statistically, each of these hypotheses was represented by a zero-inflated negative binomial mixture model, allowing us to control for excess zeros in the data. The best model was selected using Akaike's information criteria. Fly abundance was affected by anthropogenic disturbance in Artibeus planirostris, Carollia perspicillata and Pteronotus parnellii, but not Desmodus rotundus. Climate affected fly abundance in all bat species, suggesting mediation of these effects via the host or by direct effects on flies. We conclude that human disturbance may play a role in shaping bat-bat fly interactions. Different processes could determine fly abundance in the different bat species.

  11. Effects of anthropogenic disturbance and climate on patterns of bat fly parasitism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilosof, Shai; Dick, Carl W; Korine, Carmi; Patterson, Bruce D; Krasnov, Boris R

    2012-01-01

    Environmental conditions, including anthropogenic disturbance, can significantly alter host and parasite communities. Yet, our current knowledge is based mainly on endoparasites, while ectoparasites remain little studied. We studied the indirect effects of anthropogenic disturbance (human population density) and climate (temperature, precipitation and elevation) on abundance of highly host-specific bat flies in four Neotropical bat species across 43 localities in Venezuela. We formulated a set of 11 a priori hypotheses that included a combination of the two effectors and host species. Statistically, each of these hypotheses was represented by a zero-inflated negative binomial mixture model, allowing us to control for excess zeros in the data. The best model was selected using Akaike's information criteria. Fly abundance was affected by anthropogenic disturbance in Artibeus planirostris, Carollia perspicillata and Pteronotus parnellii, but not Desmodus rotundus. Climate affected fly abundance in all bat species, suggesting mediation of these effects via the host or by direct effects on flies. We conclude that human disturbance may play a role in shaping bat-bat fly interactions. Different processes could determine fly abundance in the different bat species. PMID:22829953

  12. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  13. Climate change. Important findings from the 4. fact finding report of the intergovernmental commission on climate change of the United Nations (IPCC); Klimaaenderung. Wichtige Erkentnisse aus dem 4. Sachstandsbericht des Zwischenstaatlichen Ausschusses fuer Klimaaenderungen der Vereinten Nationen (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maeder, Claudia

    2009-12-19

    The Report covers the following topics: 1. anthropogenic climate change - since when do we know about it? 2. IPCC - the intergovernmental commission for climate change. 3. Assignable causes for climate change: changes of incoming solar radiation, changes of the reflected solar radiation, change of the heat radiation lost into space, aerosols, internal variability of the climate system. 4. Historical climate changes in long periods. 5. Development of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 6. Observed climate changes. 7. Projections of future climate changes. 8. Consequences of climate change: consequences of the actual temperature increase, possible future consequences, freshwater resources and their management, ecosystems, agricultural production, coastal regions and low lying areas.

  14. Nuclear Energy and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Méritet, Sophie; Zaleski, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    The paper will discuss the possibilities of the development of nuclear energy in the world in the midterm and long term. It will correlate the prospects with the emissions of CO2 and the effects on climate change. In particular it will discuss the problems nuclear energy face to make a large contribution of climate change issue.

  15. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  16. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  17. Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierly, Eugene W.

    2006-08-01

    The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

  18. Dune erosion under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, R.C.

    2014-01-01

    This PhD-thesis investigated the effect of future climate change on dune erosion in the Netherlands. At present, dune erosion occurs under a combination of large storm surge and high waves, which are both generated by a storm event. Therefore to investigate the affect of future climate change on dun

  19. Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hull, Katy

    2008-01-01

    Equity emerged as the principal theme during the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) week session 'climate change, growth and poverty,' where presenters addressed the distributional consequences of climate change, as well as countries' unequal capacity to cope with the twin challenges of adaptation and mitigation. They highlighted actions to strengthen the global knowledge bas...

  20. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  1. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  2. Climate Change Signal Analysis for Northeast Asian Surface Temperature

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jeong-Hyeong LEE; Byungsoo KIM; Keon-Tae SOHN; Won-Tae KOWN; Seung-Ki MIN

    2005-01-01

    Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO42-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SOl- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the direct cooling effect of SO42- played a less important role (0% 7%) than the CO2effect. The prediction of surface temperature change was estimated from the second CO2+SO24- scenario run of ECHAM4/OPYC3 which has the least error in the simulation of the present-day temperature field near the Korean Peninsula. The result shows that the area-mean surface temperature near the Korean Peninsula will increase by about 1.1° by the 2040s relative to the 1990s.

  3. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  4. Climate Change and Floodplain Management in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, J.R. [Institute for Water Resources, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, CEIWR-PD, Casey Building, 7701 Telegraph Road, Alexandria, VA 22315 (United States)

    2006-06-15

    Federal agencies use flood frequency estimates to delineate flood risk, manage the National Flood Insurance Program, and ensure that Federal programs are economically efficient. The assumption behind traditional flood risk analysis is that climate is stationary, but anthropogenic climate change and better knowledge of interdecadal climate variability challenge the validity of the assumption. This paper reviews several alternative statistical models for flood risk estimation that do not assume climate stationarity. Some models require subjective judgement or presuppose an understanding of the causes of the underlying non-stationarity, which is problematic given our current knowledge of the interaction of climate and floods. Although currently out of favor, hydrometeorological models have been used for engineering design as alternatives to statistical models and could be adapted to different climate conditions. Floodplain managers should recognize the potentially greater uncertainty in flood risk estimation due to climate change and variability and try to incorporate the uncertainties into floodplain management decision-making and regulation.

  5. Análisis de los riesgos ambientales por antropogénesis y su valoración frente a los futuros cambios climáticos en el área metropolitana de la ciudad de Buenos Aires Analysis of the anthropogenic environmental risks and their evaluation regarding future climatic changes for the metropolitan Buenos Aires region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.A. López

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available El propósito de este trabajo es comparar los posibles efectos del cambio climático, en especial el de las precipitaciónes y las variaciones del nivel del mar, con los cambios antropogénicos ocurridos a lo largo de la costa de la ciudad de Buenos Aires. Se detectó un incremento en la precipitación acumulada de 4,1 mm por año desde 1960 y una tropicalización climática. El nivel del mar sufrió un ascenso del orden de 1,6 mm por año durante 90 años. El ascenso del nivel del estuario asociado a las sudestadas es similar a la tasa media de la variación del nivel del mar. Las actividades humanas han modificado la morfología costera desde 1836. Los principales cambios introducidos fueron: relleno artificial de la costa, variación en la configuración costera, ascenso de la freática, impermeabilización, desintegración de los diseños de la red de drenaje, entubamiento y canalización de arroyos, modificaciones en los perfiles longitudinales de los arroyos, alteraciones del paisaje y de la topografía. El aumento de las precipitaciones asociado al cambio climático provocaron un incremento en la extensión y frecuencia de las inundaciones, así como también en el nivel freático. El incremento en la descarga de sedimentos del río Paraná debido al aumento de la precipitaciones podría provocar una mayor tasa de progradación del delta. En general los cambios antropogénicos han representado un mayor impacto en la costa que los cambios climáticos. Los futuros planes de manejo costero para la ciudad de Buenos Aires deberán contemplar las acciones humanas y las tendencias futuras de los cambios globales.The purpose of this paper is to compare possible effects of climatic changes (precipitation and sea level variations with the anthropogenic changes along the coast of Buenos Aires city. An increase in the accumulative precipitation of 4.1 mm per year since 1960 was detected, as well as a climatic tropicalization. Long-term trends in sea

  6. Climate variability and change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

  7. Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Thurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Diao, Xinshen

    2011-01-01

    Economy-wide and hydrological-crop models are combined to estimate and compare the economic impacts of current climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, simulation results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by four percent over a ten-year period and pulls over two percent of the population below the poverty line. Socio-economic impacts are much larger during major drought years, thus underscori...

  8. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and scientific consensus. How scientists come to say what they say about climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Skodvin, Tora

    1998-12-01

    This document reviews the background, organization and operation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It gives some background on climate change in the past and finally discusses what IPCC says about the likely future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. 14 refs., 8 figs.

  9. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  10. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  11. Climate change and avian influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Gilbert, Marius; Slingenbergh, Jan; Xiao, Xiangming

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in ...

  12. Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Ignacio; Wiens, John J

    2013-08-01

    A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time-calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10,000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species.

  13. Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent

    2016-09-01

    Three quasi-equilibrium simulations using constant greenhouse gas forcing corresponding to years 2000, 2015 and 2030 have been performed with the global coupled model EC-Earth in order to analyze the Arctic climate and interactions with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming. The model simulations indicate an accelerated warming and ice extent reduction in the Arctic between the year-2030 and year-2015 simulations compared to the change between the year-2015 and year-2000 simulations. Both Arctic warming and sea ice reduction are closely linked to the increase of ocean heat transport into the Arctic, particularly through the Barents Sea Opening. Decadal variations of Arctic sea ice extent and ice volume are of the same order of magnitude as the observed ice extent reductions in the last 30 years and are dominated by the variability of the ocean heat transports through the Barents Sea Opening and the Bering Strait. Despite a general warming of mid and high northern latitudes, a substantial cooling is found in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic under year-2015 and year-2030 conditions. This cooling is related to a strong reduction in the AMOC, itself due to reduced deep water formation in the Labrador Sea. The observed trend towards a more negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed linkage between autumn Arctic ice variations and NAO are reproduced in our model simulations for selected 30-year periods but are not robust over longer time periods. This indicates that the observed linkages between ice and NAO might not be robust in reality either, and that the observational time period is still too short to reliably separate the trend from the natural variability.

  14. Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Steven A. Flanagan; George C. Hurtt; Justin P. Fisk; Ritvik Sahajpal; Hansen, Matthew C.; Katelyn A. Dolan; Joe H Sullivan; Maosheng Zhao

    2016-01-01

    There are strong relationships between climate and ecosystems. With the prospect of anthropogenic forcing accelerating climate change, there is a need to understand how terrestrial vegetation responds to this change as it influences the carbon balance. Previous studies have primarily addressed this question using empirically based models relating the observed pattern of vegetation and climate, together with scenarios of potential future climate change, to predict how vegetation may redistribu...

  15. Impacts of extreme weather and climate change on South African dragonflies

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Samways

    2010-01-01

    The absence of ice sheets for many millions of years, yet variable topography and changing climate, has generated considerable biodiversity in South Africa. There is no evidence to date that anthropogenic climate change has affected odonate populations in the region. One reason is that the highly varying weather and climate constitutes considerable background noise against which any effects of modern climate change must be measured. Evidence is accumulating that the Holocene interglacial and ...

  16. Holocene Fire, Climate and Erosion in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico: Natural and Anthropogenic Controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, G. A.; Fitch, E. P.

    2013-12-01

    Ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests in the Jemez Mountains have been ravaged by extensive severe fires in the last two decades, which burned almost 1000 km2, roughly 30% of this middle-elevation range. Tree-ring fire history reconstructions indicate that a low-severity fire regime characterized the ca. 400 years before Euroamerican settlement, and that fuel buildup from fire suppression and land-use impacts contributed to increased fire severity in recent years. In order to better understand natural variability, climatic influences, and erosional effects of wildfire activity since ~5000 cal yr BP, we identified and 14C-dated fire-related alluvial deposits in the 2002 Lakes Fire area in the southwestern Jemez Mountains. These deposits indicate that most late Holocene fire-related erosional events were relatively minor, consistent with the low-severity burns that dominate the tree-ring record, but larger debris flows also occurred, suggesting at least small areas of high-severity fire. Although changes in postfire sedimentation are not so clearly related to millennial-scale Holocene climatic changes as in the Northern Rocky Mountains, peaks in fire-event probability correspond with severe regional multidecadal droughts ca. 1800 and 375 cal yr BP. Local microclimatic controls on vegetation, soils, and post-fire sedimentation are also evident. Relatively dense mixed-conifer stands including Douglas-fir typify moister north-facing basins, where soils are apparently thicker and more permeable than on southerly aspects. Alluvial fans of these basins are dominated by fire-related deposits (77% of measured stratigraphic thickness), thus we interpret that little erosion occurs in the absence of wildfires. Holocene fire-related events from north slopes are also of somewhat lower frequency, and possibly of higher severity. In contrast, in ponderosa pine-dominated south-facing basins, fire-related deposits make up only 39% of measured fan deposits. On drier south aspects

  17. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  18. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J;

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  19. Ground water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food secu¬rity will probably intensify under climate chan...

  20. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit;

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  1. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  2. Climate change adaptation of the built environment – an examination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    phenomena. This is why the term 'environmental changes' might be more accurate than climate change. ‘Environmental changes’ suggests that climate changes ought to be understood as extensive environmental changes, with an impact on the built environment. Following this, it is no longer sufficient only...... to assess for example a building, and anthropogenic impacts on the environment, also the impact of the environment on installations, and on the human activities must be included in the analysis and assessments. Based on observations and investigations into climate change adaptation in DK and abroad...... the research project, Waterscape (Vandskab), focus on some of the challenges that the architectural disciplines are facing in relation to climate changes adaptation....

  3. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  4. Climate Change and Oil Depletion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2 atmospheric content and of the average earth surface temperature are being considered to be interrelated. Carbon dioxide, water vapour and clouds all act as greenhouse forcing agents; cloud cover on account of its high solar reflectivity also acts as a direct cooling agent. Aerosols are of great importance in the processes of cloud formation and in precipitation initiation, thereby affecting the hydrological cycle; they also exhibit radiative forcing properties both direct and indirect, by the way of the clouds, either positive or negative, according to their particular composition. These particular influences are not yet well known and not yet properly incorporated in the simulations of climate scenarios adopted by the IPCC. And uncertainty brackets are still rather large. Notwithstanding, the results of these still incomplete climate scenarios have been taken as enough scientific evidence to decide upon imposing limits to greenhouse gas emissions. The European Union has already approved an European Climate Change Programme and took the political initiative in the Marrakech COP of the UNFCCC in November 2001, to the effect of the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol (1997). This is a political option which, besides setting emissions targets and energy policy terms of reference, also sets emission taxes and opens a new financial market for the trade of emission rights or permits. Evidence for the actual strain put upon the fossil energy supply is rather stronger than the evidence for anthropogenic climate changes. Rather more attention should be drawn to the supply of alternative energy sources, to the development of new energy carriers, to the improvement of technologies of energy conversion and storage as well as to the rationalization and moderation of demand at end use, so that a severe fossil energy supply crises might be avoided. In doing so, environmental and climatic consequences of any kind due to the rising worldwide level of energy demand would be

  5. Climate change; Le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  6. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  7. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  8. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  9. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change......, as a point of departure for an examination of what happens when a requirement to save energy and resources, as a response to global climate change, encounters local ways of knowing the world. Developed through meetings, workshops, competitions and the promotion of exemplary individuals, the campaign...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...

  10. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  11. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  12. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  13. Climate change and water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  14. Changes of Bulgarian Coastal Dune Landscape under Anthropogenic Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazov, A.; Young, R.; Stancheva, M.; Stanchev, H.

    2012-04-01

    At one time large sand dune formations were widely distributed along the Bulgarian coast. However, due to increased urbanization in the coastal zone, the areas of total dune landscape has been constantly reduced. Dunes presently comprise only 10% of the entire 412 km long coastline of Bulgaria: they embrace a total length of 38.57 km and a total area of 8.78 km2 Important tasks in dune protection are identification of landscape changes for a certain period of time and accurate delineation of sand dune areas. The present research traces sand dune changes along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast over a 27 year period (1983-2010). This period includes also the time of expanded tourist boom and overbuilding of the coastal zone, and respectively presents the largest dune changes and reductions. Based on the landscape change analyst in GIS environment the study also aims to explore the importance of different natural and human factors in driving the observed dune alterations and destruction. To detect and assess dune changes during the last 3 decades, we used data for sand dunes derived from several sources at different time periods in order to compare changes in shoreline positions, dune contours and areas: i) Topographic maps in 1:5,000 scale from 1983; ii) Modern Very High Resolution orthophotographs from 2006 and 2010; iii) QuickBird Very High Resolution satellite images from 2009; iv) Statistical information for population and tourist infrastructure is also used to consider the influence of human pressure and hotel developments on the dune dynamics. In addition, for more detailed description and visualization of main dune types, digital photos have been taken at many parts of the Bulgarian coast. The study was performed in GIS environment. Based on the results obtained the dunes along the Bulgarian coast were divided into three main groups with relation to the general factors responsible for their alterations: i) Dunes that have decreased in result of shoreline retreat

  15. Reservoir Systems in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, W.; Tung, C.; Tai, C.

    2007-12-01

    Climate change may cause more climate variability and further results in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may greatly influence reservoir¡¦s abilities to provide service, such as water supply and flood mitigation, and even danger reservoir¡¦s safety. Some local studies have identified that climate change may cause more flood in wet period and less flow in dry period in Taiwan. To mitigate climate change impacts, more reservoir space, i.e. less storage, may be required to store higher flood in wet periods, while more reservoir storage may be required to supply water for dry periods. The goals to strengthen adaptive capacity of water supply and flood mitigation are conflict under climate change. This study will focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change on reservoir systems. The evaluation procedure includes hydrological models, a reservoir water balance model, and a water supply system dynamics model. The hydrological models are used to simulate reservoir inflows under different climate conditions. Future climate scenarios are derived from several GCMs. Then, the reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir¡¦s storage and outflows according to the simulated inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. At last, those outflows are further input to the system dynamics model to assess whether the goal of water supply can still be met. To mitigate climate change impacts, the implementing adaptation strategies will be suggested with the principles of risk management. Besides, uncertainties of this study will also be analyzed. The Feitsui reservoir system in northern Taiwan is chosen as a case study.

  16. Responsible Reaction To Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    China calls for turning UNFCCC provisions into concrete actions Never before has climate change been as prominent on the public agenda as it is today.Its rele- vance was highlighted once again when more than 10,000 delegates from over 180 countries flocked to Bali early this month to discuss the topic.Environment officials as well as representatives from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations gath- ered on the Indonesian island on December 3-14 for the UN Climate Change Conference.

  17. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip;

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  18. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  19. Climate Change in Developing Countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.A.; Lasage, R.; Dorlands, C. (eds.) [Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-09-15

    This book presents an overview of the studies conducted by the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance programme. The programme was set up in recognition of the need for developing countries, in particular, to face the challenges confronting all countries under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The book presents an overview of the main results in 13 countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Mali, Mongolia, Senegal, Surinam, Vietnam, Yemen and Zimbabwe. It provides a critical evaluation of the methodologies and approaches used, a cross-country synthesis and recommendations for further studies. Subjects dealt with include not only impact studies, but also vulnerability and adaptation, mitigation and climate related policy.

  20. Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Basics Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions This page ... All Responses Is there a scientific consensus on climate change? The major scientific agencies of the United ...

  1. Europeans' attitudes towards climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a survey on Europeans' attitudes towards climate change which was carried out in January and February 2009. The survey focuses on: Citizens' perceptions of climate change in relation to other world problems; Citizens' perceptions of the seriousness of climate change; The extent to which citizens feel informed about climate change - its causes, consequences and ways of fighting it; Citizens' attitudes towards alternative fuels and CO2 emissions; Whether citizens feel that climate change is stoppable or has been exaggerated, and what impact it has on the European economy; Whether citizens have taken personal action to fight climate change. This Eurobarometer survey was carried out by TNS Opinion and Social network between 16 January and 22 February 2009. The interviews were conducted among 26,718 citizens in the 27 Member States of the European Union, the three candidate countries for accession to the European Union (Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in the Turkish Cypriot Community.

  2. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  3. Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Jung, Jaegun; Kumar, Naresh; Yarwood, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Estimates of North American and US Background (NAB and USB) ozone (O3) are critical in setting and implementing the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and therefore influence population exposure to O3 across the US. NAB is defined as the O3 concentration in the absence of anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions from North America whereas USB excludes anthropogenic emissions inside the US alone. NAB and USB vary geographically and with time of year. Analyses of O3 trends at rural locations near the west coast suggest that background O3 is rising in response to increasing non-US emissions. As the O3 NAAQS is lowered, rising background O3 would make attaining the NAAQS more difficult. Most studies of changing US background O3 have inferred trends from observations whereas air quality management decisions tend to rely on models. Thus, it is important that the models used to develop O3 management strategies are able to represent the changes in background O3 in order to increase confidence that air quality management strategies will succeed. We focus on how changing global emissions influence USB rather than the effects of inter-annual meteorological variation or long-term climate change. We use a regional model (CAMx) nested within a global model (GEOS-Chem) to refine our grid resolution over high terrain in the western US and near US borders where USB tends to be higher. We determine USB from CAMx simulations that exclude US anthropogenic emissions. Over five decades, from 1970 to 2020, estimated USB for the annual fourth highest maximum daily 8-h average O3 (H4MDA8) in the western US increased from mostly in the range of 40-55 ppb to 45-60 ppb, but remained below 45 ppb in the eastern US. USB increases in the southwestern US are consistent with rising emissions in Asia and Mexico. USB decreases in the northeast US after 1990 follow declining Canadian emissions. Our results show that the USB increases both for the top 30 MDA8 days and the H4MDA8 (the former

  4. Effects of historical land cover changes on climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI ZhengGuo; YAN XiaoDong; YIN ChongHua; WANG ZhaoMin

    2007-01-01

    In order to explore the influence of anthropogenic land use on the climate system during the last millennium, a set of experiments is performed with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity--the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM-2). The present paper mainly focuses on biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes. A dynamic scenario of deforestation is described based on changes in cropland fraction (RF99). The model simulates a decrease in global mean annual temperature in the range of 0.09-0.16℃, especially 0.14-0.22℃ in Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years. The responses of climate system to GHGs concentration changes are also calculated for comparisons. Now, afforestation is becoming an important choice for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sequestration and adjustment of regional climate. The results indicate that biogeophysical effects of land cover changes cannot be neglected in the assessments of climate change.

  5. Climate Change and Nuclear Power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is one of a series of recent agreements through which countries around the world are banding together to meet the challenge of altering the global climate. In 1997, in respond to the growing public pressure and questions on climate change governments adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The 5th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP5 UNFCCC) was a rather technical and complex conference which focused in particular on the development of a detailed framework for the application of ''flexible mechanisms'' as laid down in the Kyoto Protocol. Young Generation Network as a part of the International Nuclear Forum at COP5 took part in the debate saying that nuclear is the part of the solution. (author)

  6. Climate change and preventive medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faergeman, Ole

    2007-01-01

    disease do not result from climate change, but they do share causes with climate change. Burning fossil fuels, for example, is the major source of greenhouse gases, but it also makes pervasive physical inactivity possible. Similarly, modern agriculture's enormous production of livestock contributes...... substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, and it is the source of many of our most energy-rich foods. Physicians and societies of medical professionals have a particular responsibility, therefore, to contribute to the public discourse about climate change and what to do about it. Udgivelsesdato: 2007-Dec......Thermal stress, food poisoning, infectious diseases, malnutrition, psychiatric illness as well as injury and death from floods, storms and fire are all likely to become more common as the earth warms and the climate becomes more variable. In contrast, obesity, type II diabetes and coronary artery...

  7. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  8. Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

    2016-04-26

    Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change.

  9. Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

    2016-04-26

    Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change. PMID:27190980

  10. Climatic response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols versus well-mixed greenhouse gases from 1850 to 2000 AD in CLIMBER-2

    OpenAIRE

    Bauer, Eva; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Ganopolski, Andrey; Eliseev, Alexey V.

    2011-01-01

    The Earth system model CLIMBER-2 is extended by a scheme for calculating the climatic response to anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions. The scheme calculates the direct radiative forcing, the first indirect cloud albedo effect, and the second indirect cloud lifetime effect induced by geographically resolved sulphate aerosol burden. The simulated anthropogenic sulphate aerosol burden in the year 2000 amounts to 0.47 TgS. The best guesses for the radiative forcing due to the direct effect ar...

  11. Confronting climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially from energy production and use, and their impact on global climate emerged as a major national issue in the United States during the 1980s. As a result, Congress directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to ask the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering to assess the current state of research and development (R ampersand D) in the United States in alternative energy sources, and to suggest energy R ampersand D strategies involving roles for both the public and private sectors, should the government want to give priority to stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. The findings and recommendations of the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, appointed by the National Research Council in response to Congress's directive, are provided in this report and summarized in this chapter. The energy R ampersand D strategies and actions recommended by the committee are structured to facilitate prudent and decisive responses by the United States, despite uncertainties regarding the effects of GHGs on global climate. 96 refs., 4 figs., 17 tabs

  12. Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinlun; Steele, Michael; Schweiger, Axel

    2010-10-01

    Numerical experiments are conducted to project arctic sea ice responses to varying levels of future anthropogenic warming and climate variability over 2010-2050. A summer ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely by the mid-2040s if arctic surface air temperature (SAT) increases 4°C by 2050 and climate variability is similar to the past relatively warm two decades. If such a SAT increase is reduced by one-half or if a future Arctic experiences a range of SAT fluctuation similar to the past five decades, a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean would be unlikely before 2050. If SAT increases 4°C by 2050, summer ice volume decreases to very low levels (10-37% of the 1978-2009 summer mean) as early as 2025 and remains low in the following years, while summer ice extent continues to fluctuate annually. Summer ice volume may be more sensitive to warming while summer ice extent more sensitive to climate variability. The rate of annual mean ice volume decrease relaxes approaching 2050. This is because, while increasing SAT increases summer ice melt, a thinner ice cover increases winter ice growth. A thinner ice cover also results in a reduced ice export, which helps to further slow ice volume loss. Because of enhanced winter ice growth, arctic winter ice extent remains nearly stable and therefore appears to be a less sensitive climate indicator.

  13. Anthropogenic flank attack on polar bears: Interacting consequences of climate warming and pollutant exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bjørn Munro Jenssen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Polar bears (Ursus maritimus are subjected to several anthropogenic threats, climate warming and exposure to pollutants being two of these. For polar bears, one of the main effects of climate warming is limited access to prey, due to loss of their sea ice habitat. This will result in prolonged fasting periods and emaciation and condition related negative effects on survival and reproduction success. Prolonged fasting will result in increases of the tissue concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs in polar bears, and thus increase the probability for POP levels to exceed threshold levels for effects on health, and thus on reproductive success and survival. There are clear potentials for interactions between impacts of climate warming and impacts of pollutant exposure on polar bears. It is likely that that fasting-induced increases of POPs will add to mortality rates and decrease reproductive success beyond effects caused by loss of habitat alone. However, there is a lack of studies that have addressed this. Thus, there is a need to focus on population effects of POP exposure in polar bears, and to consider such effects in relation to the effects of climate induced habitat loss.

  14. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  15. Changes in the ecosystem structure of the Black Sea under predicted climatological and anthropogenic variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akoglu, Ekin; Salihoglu, Baris; Fach Salihoglu, Bettina; Libralato, Simone; Cannaby, Heather; Oguz, Temel; Solidoro, Cosimo

    2014-05-01

    A dynamic Ecopath with Ecosim higher-trophic-level (HTL) model representation of the Black Sea ecosystem was coupled to the physical (BIMS-CIR) and biogeochemical (BIMS-ECO) models of the Black Sea in order to investigate historical anthropogenic and climatological interactions and feedbacks in the ecosystem. Further, the coupled models were used to assess the likely consequences of these interactions on the ecosystem's structure and functioning under predicted future climate (IPCC A1B) and fishing variability. Therefore, two model scenarios were used; i) a hindcast scenario (1980-1999) to evaluate and understand the impacts of the short-term climate and physical variability and the introduction of invasive species on the Black Sea ecosystem, and ii) a forecast scenario (2080-2099) to investigate the potential implications of climate change and anthropogenic exploitation on living resources of the Black Sea ecosystem by the end of the 21st century. According to the outcomes of the hindcast simulation, fisheries were found to be the main driver in determining the structure and functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem under changing environmental conditions. The coupled physical-biogeochemical forecast simulations predicted a slight but statistically significant basin-wide increase in the Black Sea's primary productivity by the end of the century due to increased stratification induced by basin-wide temperature increase and reduced Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL) formation which increased the residence time of riverine nutrients within the euphotic zone. Despite this increased primary productivity, the HTL model forecast simulation predicted a significant decrease in the commercial fish stocks primarily due to fisheries exploitation if current catch rates are maintained into the future. Results further suggested that some economically important small pelagic fish species are likely to disappear from the ecosystem making the recovery of the already-collapsed piscivorous

  16. Distinguishing between anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size: a modeling approach using data from Ebinur Lake in arid northwest China

    OpenAIRE

    Long Ma; Jinglu Wu; Wen Liu; Jilili Abuduwaili

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size variation is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining societal development. We assumed that climate and human activity are the only drivers of lake-size variation and are independent of each other. We then evaluated anthropogenic and climatic effects on hydrological processes, using a multivariate linear model. Macro-economic data were used to describe the anthropogenic impact on lake surface area in our approac...

  17. Effects of global climate change and organic pollution on nutrient cycling in marine sediments

    OpenAIRE

    Sanz-Lázaro, C.; T. Valdemarsen; Holmer, M.

    2015-01-01

    Increasing ocean temperature due to climate change is an important anthropogenic driver of ecological change in coastal systems, where sediments play a major role in nutrient cycling. Our ability to predict ecological consequences of climate change is enhanced by simulating real scenarios especially when the interactions among drivers may not be just additive. Based on predicted climate change scenarios, we tested the effect of temperature and organic pollution on nutrient r...

  18. Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cody, Emily M; Reagan, Andrew J; Mitchell, Lewis; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.

  19. Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily M Cody

    Full Text Available The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.

  20. Attribution of spring snow water equivalent (SWE) changes over the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi; Naveed Khaliq, M.

    2016-07-01

    Snow is an important component of the cryosphere and it has a direct and important influence on water storage and supply in snowmelt-dominated regions. This study evaluates the temporal evolution of snow water equivalent (SWE) for the February-April spring period using the GlobSnow observation dataset for the 1980-2012 period. The analysis is performed for different regions of hemispherical to sub-continental scales for the Northern Hemisphere. The detection-attribution analysis is then performed to demonstrate anthropogenic and natural effects on spring SWE changes for different regions, by comparing observations with six CMIP5 model simulations for three different external forcings: all major anthropogenic and natural (ALL) forcings, greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing only, and natural forcing only. The observed spring SWE generally displays a decreasing trend, due to increasing spring temperatures. However, it exhibits a remarkable increasing trend for the southern parts of East Eurasia. The six CMIP5 models with ALL forcings reproduce well the observed spring SWE decreases at the hemispherical scale and continental scales, whereas important differences are noted for smaller regions such as southern and northern parts of East Eurasia and northern part of North America. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings are clearly detected for the spring SWE decline at the hemispherical scale, based on multi-model ensemble signals. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings, however, are less clear for the smaller regions or with single-model signals, indicating the large uncertainty in regional SWE changes, possibly due to stronger influence of natural climate variability.

  1. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer

    2016-08-11

    Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

  2. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

  3. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    , the inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  4. Decadal and centennial variability of climate change in the Pacific Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The following questions will be addressed: 1) What do 14C records in surface corals tell us about changes in circulation and climate? and 2) Do changes in climate during the pre-anthropogenic period (< A.D. 1850) resemble those during the twentieth century? (author)

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of-the-Art Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    2013-01-01

    to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend or impact results. The review (Willems et al., 2012) considers the following aspects: analysis of long-term historical trends...

  6. Re-Examining the Relationship between Tillage Regime and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammons, Sarah K.

    2009-01-01

    It is known that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are a major contributor to global climate change and that reducing our emissions will stem its acceleration (Baker et al., 2007). Aside from emission reductions, another method for stemming global climate change is to reduce the levels of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere by storing…

  7. Efficacy Trade-Offs in Individuals' Support for Climate Change Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosentrater, Lynn D.; Saelensminde, Ingrid; Ekström, Frida; Böhm, Gisela; Bostrom, Ann; Hanss, Daniel; O'Connor, Robert E.

    2013-01-01

    Using survey data, the authors developed an architecture of climate change beliefs in Norway and their correlation with support for policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A strong majority of respondents believe that anthropogenic climate change is occurring and identify carbon dioxide emissions as a cause. Regression analysis shows…

  8. Climate change and fuel poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Simon Dresner; Paul Ekins

    2005-01-01

    The research examined the possible effects of rapid climate change on fuel poverty (needing to spend more than 10% of income to maintain a satisfactory level of warmth and other energy services in the home). One particular concern was the prospect that there might be a shutting off of the Gulf Stream, which warms Britain and the rest of north-western Europe. Computer simulations of the climate indicate that shutting down the Gulf Stream would cool England by about 3°C. Climate is not the only...

  9. Reporting the climate change crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, Anabela

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious threats that humankind will have to deal with in the coming decades. There is every indication that it will engender a significant upheaval in the climate patterns of the world regions, with corresponding impacts on agriculture, ecosystems and human health. This main entail unpredictable weather events, like storms and tornados, while posing significant risks for human security, destruction of housing and economic structures, and floodi...

  10. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  11. Invasive species and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2006-01-01

    Invasive species challenge managers in their work of conserving and managing natural areas and are one of the most serious problems these managers face. Because invasive species are likely to spread in response to changes in climate, managers may need to change their approaches to invasive species management accordingly.

  12. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  13. Global Climate Change: Role of Livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M.K. Naqvi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is seen as a major threat to the survival of many species, ecosystems and the sustainability of livestock production systems in many parts of the world. Green house gases (GHG are released in the atmosphere both by natural sources and anthropogenic (human related activities. An attempt has been made in this article to understand the contribution of ruminant livestock to climate change and to identify the mitigation strategies to reduce enteric methane emission in livestock. The GHG emissions from the agriculture sector account for about 25.5% of total global radiative forcing and over 60% of anthropogenic sources. Animal husbandry accounts for 18% of GHG emissions that cause global warming. Reducing the increase of GHG emissions from agriculture, especially livestock production should therefore be a top priority, because it could curb warming fairly rapidly. Among the GHGs, CH4 is considered to be the largest potential contributor to the global warming phenomenon. Ruminant livestock such as cattle, buffalo, sheep and goats contributes the major proportion of total agricultural emission of methane. Indian livestock system is a large contributor to GHGs and therefore also to the global warming phenomenon. Methane emission from enteric fermentation from Indian livestock ranged from 7.26 to 10.4 MT/year. In India more than 90% of the total methane emission from enteric fermentation is being contributed by the large ruminants (cattle and buffalo and rest from small ruminants and others. Generally CH4 reduction strategies can be grouped under two broad categories such as management and nutritional strategies. Although the reduction in GHG emissions from livestock industries are seen as high priorities, strategies for reducing emissions should not reduce the economic viability of enterprises if they are to find industry acceptability.

  14. How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Schneider

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, flow regimes are being modified by various anthropogenic impacts and climate change induces an additional risk. Rising temperatures, declining snow cover and changing precipitation patterns will interact differently at different locations. Consequently, in distinct climate zones, unequal consequences can be expected in matters of water stress, flood risk, water quality, and food security. In particular, river ecosystems and their vital ecosystem services will be compromised as their species richness and composition have evolved over long time under natural flow conditions. This study aims at evaluating the exclusive impacts of climate change on river flow regimes in Europe. Various flow characteristics are taken into consideration and diverse dynamics are identified for each distinct climate zone in Europe. In order to simulate present-day natural flow regimes and future flow regimes under climate change, the global hydrology model WaterGAP3 is applied. All calculations for current and future conditions (2050s are carried out on a 5' × 5' European grid. To address uncertainty, bias-corrected climate forcing data of three different global climate models are used to drive WaterGAP3. Finally, the hydrological alterations of different flow characteristics are quantified by the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration approach. Results of our analysis indicate that on the European scale, climate change can be expected to modify flow regimes remarkably. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean (due to drier conditions with reduced precipitation across the year and in the boreal climate zone (due to reduced snowmelt, increased precipitation, and strong temperature rises. In the temperate climate zone, impacts increase from oceanic to continental. Regarding single flow characteristics, strongest impacts on timing were found for the boreal climate zone. This applies for both high and low flows. Flow magnitudes, in turn, will be

  15. Three eras of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, Saleemul; Toulmin, Camilla

    2006-10-15

    Climate change as a global challenge has evolved through a series of stages in the last few decades. We are now on the brink of a new era which will see the terms of the debate shift once again. The different eras are characterised by the scientific evidence, public perceptions, responses and engagement of different groups to address the problem. In the first era, from the late 1980s to 2000, climate change was seen as an “environmental” problem to do with prevention of future impacts on the planet's climate systems over the next fifty to hundred years, through reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases, known as “mitigation”. The second era can be said to have started around the turn of the millennium, with the recognition that there will be some unavoidable impacts from climate change in the near term (over the next decade or two). These impacts must be coped with through “adaptation”, as well as mitigation, to prevent much more severe and possibly catastrophic impacts in the longer term. It has become clear that many of the impacts of climate change in the near term are likely to fall on the poorest countries and communities. The third era, which we are just about to enter, will see the issue change from tackling an environmental or development problem to a question of “global justice”. It will engage with a much wider array of citizens from around the world than previous eras.

  16. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615-24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  17. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  18. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  19. Philosophy of climate science part II: modelling climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the second of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this second part about modelling climate change, the topics of climate modelling, confirmation of climate models, the limits of climate projections, uncertainty and finally model ensembles will be discussed.

  20. Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaver, T.L.; Clark, C.M.; Compton, J.E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C.P.; Band, L.E.; Baron, J. S.; Davidson, E.A.; Tague, C.L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J.A.; Herrick, J.D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C.L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

  1. Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaver, T. L.; Clark, C. M.; Compton, J. E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C. P.; Band, L. E.; Baron, J. S.; Davidson, E. A.; Tague, C. L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J. A.; Herrick, J. D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C. L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

    2016-09-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

  2. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  3. Market Strategies for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2004-06-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still reflect the political, non-market components. Using empirical information from the largest multinational companies worldwide, this article examines current market responses, focusing on the drivers (threats and opportunities) and the actions being taken by companies to address climate change. It also develops a typology of climate strategies that addresses the market dimensions, covering both the aim (strategic intent) and the degree of cooperation (form of organisation). The aim turns out to be either innovation or compensation, while the organisational arrangements to reach this objective can be oriented at the company level (internal), at companies' own supply chain (vertical) or at cooperation with other companies (competitors or companies in other sectors - horizontal). The typology can assist managers in deciding about the strategic option(s) they want to choose regarding climate change, also based on the insights offered by the paper about the current state of activities of other companies worldwide.

  4. How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Schneider

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, flow regimes are being modified by various anthropogenic impacts and climate change induces an additional risk. Rising evapotranspiration rates, declining snow cover and changing precipitation patterns will interact differently at different locations. Consequently, in distinct climate zones, unequal consequences can be expected in matters of water stress, flood risk, water quality, and food security. In particular, river ecosystems and their vital ecosystem services will be compromised as their species richness and composition have evolved over long time under natural flow conditions. This study aims at evaluating the exclusive impacts of climate change on river flow regimes in Europe. Various flow characteristics are taken into consideration and diverse dynamics are identified for each distinct climate zone in Europe. In order to simulate natural and modified flow regimes, the global hydrology model WaterGAP3 is applied. All calculations for current and future conditions (2050s are carried out on a 5' × 5' European grid. To address uncertainty, climate forcing data of three different global climate models are used to drive WaterGAP3. Finally, the hydrological alterations of different flow characteristics are quantified by the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration approach. Results of our analysis indicate that on European scale, climate change can be expected to modify flow regimes significantly. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean climate zone (due to drier conditions with reduced precipitation across the year and in the continental climate zone (due to reduced snowmelt and drier summers. Regarding single flow characteristics, strongest impacts on timing were found for the boreal climate zone. This applies for both, high and low flows. While low flow magnitudes are likely to be stronger influenced in the Mediterranean climate, high flow magnitudes will be mainly altered in snow climates with warmer summers. At the end

  5. Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurance, William F.

    2004-01-01

    This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors that affect trajectories of forest regeneration and carbon sequestration on abandoned lands. Extrapolating results from local studies of biomass dynamics in fragmented and regenerating forests to landscape and regional scales in Amazonia, using remote sensing and GIS. Testing the hypothesis that intact Amazonian forests are functioning as a significant carbon sink. Examining destructive synergisms between forest fragmentation and fire. Assessing the short-term impacts of selective logging on aboveground biomass. Developing GIS models that integrate current spatial data on forest cover, deforestation, logging, mining, highway and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wild fires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the future condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests over the next 20-25 years. Devising predictive spatial models to assess the influence of varied biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on Amazonian deforestation.

  6. Aerosol size distribution and radiative forcing response to anthropogenically driven historical changes in biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. D'Andrea

    2014-10-01

    +0.163 W m−2 and the global mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect of between −0.008 and −0.056 W m−2. This change in aerosols, and the associated radiative forcing, could be a~largely overlooked and important anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional climates.

  7. Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cody, Emily M.; Reagan, Andrew J.; Mitchell, Lewis; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M.

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word “climate” collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness. PMID:26291877

  8. Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world. PMID:17107430

  9. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people.

  10. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people. PMID:26920851

  11. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Miao

    2016-01-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a bal...

  12. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    OpenAIRE

    K. F. Ahmed; Wang, G; You, L.; M. Yu

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm...

  13. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.

  14. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  15. Influence of climatic and hydrological factors on structure and composition of peat from northern wetland territories with low anthropogenic impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parfenova, L N; Selyanina, S B; Trufanova, M V; Bogolitsyn, K G; Orlov, A S; Volkova, N N; Ponomareva, T I; Sokolova, T V

    2016-05-01

    Northern wetlands ecosystems play an important role in the hydrological balance of neighboring areas, where they act as chemical barriers against anthropogenic and technogenic contaminations. Studied region is well known for quantity of peat deposits and the volume of peat resources. Peat can be considered as a highly informative marker for assessing change in environmental conditions. The study presents the results of the first investigation of peat samples, collected from representative ecosystems of northern wetland territories with low anthropogenic impact. Component and element composition of various peat types were studied in a relation to hydrologic, climate and sampling conditions. It was found out that organic and ash contents are more dependent on the type of the bog, than geographic location. Climatic factors are more important for the formation of bitumen. The degradation degree in peat increases proportionally to content of humates. High content of biogenic and lithogenic elements was observed in transition- and low-moor peat. The content of trace elements in peat samples do not depend on the type of the peat. The structural properties of peat were studied by the light microscopy, AFM and dynamic light scattering. It was determined that the conformation of studied peat samples is characterized by elements of asymmetry. The observed particles in the solutions exist in dynamic equilibrium with separated globular macromolecules. The size of these nanoparticles is comparable with the size of the particles of other biopolymers of similar nature. Swelling of peat in liquid water was studied. The relationship between structural specificities, origin of peat and its maximum degree of swelling was found. The degree of swelling can be used as structural-sensitive parameter in further research. PMID:26874767

  16. Low genetic diversity in pygmy blue whales is due to climate-induced diversification rather than anthropogenic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attard, Catherine R M; Beheregaray, Luciano B; Jenner, K Curt S; Gill, Peter C; Jenner, Micheline-Nicole M; Morrice, Margaret G; Teske, Peter R; Möller, Luciana M

    2015-05-01

    Unusually low genetic diversity can be a warning of an urgent need to mitigate causative anthropogenic activities. However, current low levels of genetic diversity in a population could also be due to natural historical events, including recent evolutionary divergence, or long-term persistence at a small population size. Here, we determine whether the relatively low genetic diversity of pygmy blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda) in Australia is due to natural causes or overexploitation. We apply recently developed analytical approaches in the largest genetic dataset ever compiled to study blue whales (297 samples collected after whaling and representing lineages from Australia, Antarctica and Chile). We find that low levels of genetic diversity in Australia are due to a natural founder event from Antarctic blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus intermedia) that occurred around the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by evolutionary divergence. Historical climate change has therefore driven the evolution of blue whales into genetically, phenotypically and behaviourally distinct lineages that will likely be influenced by future climate change. PMID:25948571

  17. Low genetic diversity in pygmy blue whales is due to climate-induced diversification rather than anthropogenic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attard, Catherine R M; Beheregaray, Luciano B; Jenner, K Curt S; Gill, Peter C; Jenner, Micheline-Nicole M; Morrice, Margaret G; Teske, Peter R; Möller, Luciana M

    2015-05-01

    Unusually low genetic diversity can be a warning of an urgent need to mitigate causative anthropogenic activities. However, current low levels of genetic diversity in a population could also be due to natural historical events, including recent evolutionary divergence, or long-term persistence at a small population size. Here, we determine whether the relatively low genetic diversity of pygmy blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda) in Australia is due to natural causes or overexploitation. We apply recently developed analytical approaches in the largest genetic dataset ever compiled to study blue whales (297 samples collected after whaling and representing lineages from Australia, Antarctica and Chile). We find that low levels of genetic diversity in Australia are due to a natural founder event from Antarctic blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus intermedia) that occurred around the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by evolutionary divergence. Historical climate change has therefore driven the evolution of blue whales into genetically, phenotypically and behaviourally distinct lineages that will likely be influenced by future climate change.

  18. Sustain : the climate change challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This special report on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions focused on widely held current opinions which indicate that average global surface temperatures are increasing. The potential consequences of climate change can include rising sea levels, drought storms, disease, and mass migration of people. While the global climate change theory is widely accepted, the report warns that there are still many uncertainties about how climate change occurs and what processes can offset human-caused emissions. Canada produces about 2 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide comprises 80 per cent of Canada's total emissions. It is well known that Canadians place a heavy demand on energy to heat and light their homes because of the northern climate, and on transportation fuels to move people, goods and services across vast distances. With the Kyoto Protocol of December 1997, developed countries agreed to legally binding greenhouse gas emission reductions of at least five per cent by 2008 to 2012. Canada agreed to a six per cent reduction below 1990 levels by 2010. Although Canada signed the Kyoto Protocol, it does not intend to ratify it until an implementation strategy has been developed with broad support. The goal is to develop a strategy by 1999. The oil and gas industry has in general improved its efficiency and reduced emissions on a per unit of production basis by installing new equipment and new operating practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, and improve energy efficiency. The industry is conscious of its responsibility, and while not fully in agreement with the environmental doomsayers, it is prepared to take proactive actions now, albeit on a voluntary basis. What the industry wants is a balance between environmental and economic responsibility. Emissions trading' and 'joint implementation' are seen as two important tools to tackle climate change on a global basis. 4 figs

  19. The adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors address the issue of adaptation to climate change. They first address the physical aspects related to this issue: scenarios of temperature evolution, main possible impacts. Then, they address the social impacts related to climate risks, and the adaptation strategies which aim at reducing the exposure and vulnerability of human societies, or at increasing their resilience. Some examples of losses of human lives and of economic damages due to recent catastrophes related to climate change are evoked. The authors address the international framework, the emergence of an international regime on climate, the quite recent emergence of adaptation within international negotiations in 2001, the emergence of the idea of a support to developing countries. National and local policies are presented in the next chapter (in the European Union, the Netherlands which are faced with the issue of sea level rise, programs in developing countries) and their limitations are also outlined. The next chapter addresses the adaptation actions performed by private actors (enterprises, households, associations, civil society, and so on) with example of vulnerability, and adaptation opportunities and possibilities in some specific sectors. The last chapter presents a typology of actions of adaptation, indicators of adaptation to climate change, and examples of mistaken adaptation

  20. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  1. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-08-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  2. Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tien Ming; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Howe, Peter D.; Ko, Chia-Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

    2015-11-01

    Climate change is a threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, yet public opinion research finds that public awareness and concern vary greatly. Here, using an unprecedented survey of 119 countries, we determine the relative influence of socio-demographic characteristics, geography, perceived well-being, and beliefs on public climate change awareness and risk perceptions at national scales. Worldwide, educational attainment is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness. Understanding the anthropogenic cause of climate change is the strongest predictor of climate change risk perceptions, particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries. However, other key factors associated with public awareness and risk perceptions highlight the need to develop tailored climate communication strategies for individual nations. The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action.

  3. Climatic servitude: climate change, business and politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book is together a contemporary history book and a global dossier about a topic of prime importance in our civilization. It treats of the history of science, of ideas and events put in the modern civilization context, of science situation and scientific controversies, of the media aspects, of carbon economy and its related business, of Al Gore's and Maurice Strong's biographies, and finally, it makes a critical geopolitical analysis and makes proposals for a renovated ecology. In the conclusion, the author shows how climate change has become the hobbyhorse of a new thinking trend, namely the New World Order, aiming at conducting people to the acceptance of constraining policies encompassing the energy security of nations, new taxes, a worldwide economic disruption, the limitation of the World's population, and a World governance supported by the United Nations and not constrained by classical democratic rules. (J.S.)

  4. Coccolithophore calcification response to past ocean acidification and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dea, Sarah A; Gibbs, Samantha J; Bown, Paul R; Young, Jeremy R; Poulton, Alex J; Newsam, Cherry; Wilson, Paul A

    2014-11-17

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are forcing rapid ocean chemistry changes and causing ocean acidification (OA), which is of particular significance for calcifying organisms, including planktonic coccolithophores. Detailed analysis of coccolithophore skeletons enables comparison of calcite production in modern and fossil cells in order to investigate biomineralization response of ancient coccolithophores to climate change. Here we show that the two dominant coccolithophore taxa across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) OA global warming event (~56 million years ago) exhibited morphological response to environmental change and both showed reduced calcification rates. However, only Coccolithus pelagicus exhibits a transient thinning of coccoliths, immediately before the PETM, that may have been OA-induced. Changing coccolith thickness may affect calcite production more significantly in the dominant modern species Emiliania huxleyi, but, overall, these PETM records indicate that the environmental factors that govern taxonomic composition and growth rate will most strongly influence coccolithophore calcification response to anthropogenic change.

  5. Implications of spatial scale on climate change assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pingale Santosh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available While assessing the effects of climate change at global or regional scales, local factors responsible for climate change are generalized, which results in the averaging of effects. However, climate change assessment is required at a micro-scale to determine the severity of climate change. To ascertain the impact of spatial scales on climate change assessments, trends and shifts in annual and seasonal (monsoon and non-monsoon, rainfall and temperature (minimum, average and maximum were determined at three different spatial resolutions in India (Ajmer city, Ajmer District and Rajasthan State. The Mann–Kendall (MK, MK test with pre-whitening of series (MK–PW, and Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK test, along with other statistical techniques were used for the trend analysis. The Pettitt–Mann–Whitney (PMW test was applied to detect the temporal shift in climatic parameters. The Sen’s slope and % change in rainfall and temperature were also estimated over the study period (35 years. The annual and seasonal average temperature indicates significant warming trends, when assessed at a fine spatial resolution (Ajmer city compared to a coarser spatial resolution (Ajmer District and Rajasthan State resolutions. Increasing trend was observed in minimum, mean and maximum temperature at all spatial scales; however, trends were more pronounced at a finer spatial resolution (Ajmer city. The PMW test indicates only the significant shift in non-monsoon season rainfall, which shows an increase in rainfall after 1995 in Ajmer city. The Kurtosis and coefficient of variation also revealed significant climate change, when assessed at a finer spatial resolution (Ajmer city compared to a coarser resolution. This shows the contribution of land use/land cover change and several other local anthropogenic activities on climate change. The results of this study can be useful for the identification of optimum climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies based on

  6. Vegetation and soil dynamics under climatic to anthropogenic forcing through the Holocene in Eastern France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyen, Elise; Vannière, Boris; Gauthier, Emilie; Bichet, Vincent; Berger, Jean-François; Arnaud, Fabien

    2010-05-01

    Small lakes with little catchment areas, and high resolution Holocene sediment infilling, offer the interest to record mainly local perturbation and to study the switch from climatic to anthropogenic forcing. Two cores were extracted from Lake Antre in the Jura Mountains (Eastern France, 798 m a.s.l) and Lake Moras located on a low-elevated plateau from the upper Rhone valley (Eastern France, 304 m a.s.l). Cores taken from the deep zone of the lakes present continuous sedimentary series from the Late-glacial (15 000 cal. BP) for Lake Moras and from the Atlantic chronozone (6000 cal. BP) for Lake Antre. Several archaeological excavations and investigations around Lakes Antre and Moras give evidence of major human occupation during Gallo-roman period, while former settlements are indicating by Pre- and Protohistoric archaeological artifacts. Multi-proxy reconstructions with high temporal resolution were undertaken: vegetation dynamics by pollen analysis, fire history by the quantification of microscopic charcoal and soil erosion by magnetic susceptibility measurements. Before the anthropogenic forcing, during the mid-Holocene environment of both lakes are constituted mainly by a dense mixed oak forest. The first palaeoecological signs of anthropogenic impact on the two sites appear to have been discontinuous and limited. They appear at the early Neolithic (ca 6000 cal .BP) for Lake Moras and during the Bronze Age (4000 to 3000 cal .BP) for Lake Antre. For the both sites, all the proxies indicate an acceleration of human impact around 3000 to 2700 cal. BP i.e. at the transition between the Bronze Age and the beginning of the Iron Age. The dense forest and the Alnus dominated vegetation on borders of lakes are affected by several clearances. The influx of micro-charcoal increases due to the use of the fire for clearing and manage settlements. The development of Poaceae and Anthropogenic Pollen Indicators (API) suggest an expansion of pastures, whereas the farming

  7. The Green Sahara: Climate Change, Hydrologic History and Human Occupation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blom, Ronald G.; Farr, Tom G.; Feynmann, Joan; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Paillou, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    Archaeology can provide insight into interactions of climate change and human activities in sensitive areas such as the Sahara, to the benefit of both disciplines. Such analyses can help set bounds on climate change projections, perhaps identify elements of tipping points, and provide constraints on models. The opportunity exists to more precisely constrain the relationship of natural solar and climate interactions, improving understanding of present and future anthropogenic forcing. We are beginning to explore the relationship of human occupation of the Sahara and long-term solar irradiance variations synergetic with changes in atmospheric-ocean circulation patterns. Archaeological and climate records for the last 12 K years are gaining adequate precision to make such comparisons possible. We employ a range of climate records taken over the globe (e.g. Antarctica, Greenland, Cariaco Basin, West African Ocean cores, records from caves) to identify the timing and spatial patterns affecting Saharan climate to compare with archaeological records. We see correlation in changing ocean temperature patterns approx. contemporaneous with drying of the Sahara approx. 6K years BP. The role of radar images and other remote sensing in this work includes providing a geographically comprehensive geomorphic overview of this key area. Such coverage is becoming available from the Japanese PALSAR radar system, which can guide field work to collect archaeological and climatic data to further constrain the climate change chronology and link to models. Our initial remote sensing efforts concentrate on the Gilf Kebir area of Egypt.

  8. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  9. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  10. Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Incorporates wellbeing into understandings of climate change impacts on health. • Considers a range of secondary impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. • Examines co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for health and wellbeing. • Emphasises the spatially and socially differentiated repercussions of adaptation and mitigation measures. - Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors

  11. Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  12. Exceptional record of mid-Pleistocene vertebrates helps differentiate climatic from anthropogenic ecosystem perturbations

    OpenAIRE

    Barnosky, Anthony D.; Bell, C.J.; Emslie, S.D.; Goodwin, H T; Mead, J I; Repenning, C A; Scott, E.; Shabel, A B

    2004-01-01

    Mid-Pleistocene vertebrates in North America are scarce but important for recognizing the ecological effects of climatic change in the absence of humans. We report on a uniquely rich mid-Pleistocene vertebrate sequence from Porcupine Cave, Colorado, which records at least 127 species and the earliest appearances of 30 mammals and birds. By analyzing >20,000 mammal fossils in relation to modern species and independent climatic proxies, we determined how mammal communities reacted to presumed g...

  13. Including Cities in Projections of Global Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, M.; Best, M.; Betts, R.

    2010-12-01

    The impact of land use change through urbanisation has long been recognised as an important driver of localised climate change, resulting from the thermal and aerodynamic properties of the built environment that impact heat, moisture and momentum exchange at the atmosphere-surface interface. Urban areas contain a majority of the global population, and account for approximately 70% of primary energy demand. Therefore urban areas are focal points of vulnerability and exposure to climate change, but also potentially powerful focal points for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Urban areas occupy only a tiny fraction of the available land surface of the globe, and therefore have generally been ignored in the context of global climate change simulation. Rapid advances in recent decades have lead to the development of numerical urban models suitable for coupling to weather prediction and climate models. While the urban micro-climate and greenhouse gas induced climate change operate over very different space and time-scales we should not assume that their evolution will be independent. In this paper we demonstrate the use of an urban land surface exchange scheme nested in Hadley Centre climate models contributing to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. This has been used to quantify the development of urban heat islands in response to both radiatively forced climate change from greenhouse gas emissions, and local forcing from anthropogenic heat release associated with energy use within the urban environment. Urban citizens will be exposed to the cumulative impacts of urbanisation and climate change trends through the 21st Century, and here we demonstrate that these would be much greater than climate change alone. We also find that those areas of the world expected to undergo large urbanisation over the 21st Century are within climate zones that are among those most sensitive to the nocturnal urban heat island effect.

  14. Students' evaluations about climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Brandt, Carol B.; Bickel, Elliot S.; Burg, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Scientists regularly evaluate alternative explanations of phenomena and solutions to problems. Students should similarly engage in critical evaluation when learning about scientific and engineering topics. However, students do not often demonstrate sophisticated evaluation skills in the classroom. The purpose of the present study was to investigate middle school students' evaluations when confronted with alternative explanations of the complex and controversial topic of climate change. Through a qualitative analysis, we determined that students demonstrated four distinct categories of evaluation when writing about the connections between evidence and alternative explanations of climate change: (a) erroneous evaluation, (b) descriptive evaluation, (c) relational evaluation, and (d) critical evaluation. These categories represent different types of evaluation quality. A quantitative analysis revealed that types of evaluation, along with plausibility perceptions about the alternative explanations, were significant predictors of postinstructional knowledge about scientific principles underlying the climate change phenomenon. Specifically, more robust evaluations and greater plausibility toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change predicted greater knowledge. These findings demonstrate that instruction promoting critical evaluation and plausibility appraisal may promote greater understanding of socio-scientific topics and increased use of scientific thinking when considering alternative explanations, as is called for by recent science education reform efforts.

  15. Nuclear energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO2 emissions. (Author)

  16. Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E

    2016-08-01

    The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future. PMID:27300144

  17. Kyoto protocol on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article reports a short overview of main points of Kyoto protocol to United Nations Framework Convention on climate Change and of some options still to be defined, evolutions of Italian emissions with respect to other European countries, check of decree by inter ministerial committee on economic planning on national plan to reduce emissions

  18. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... or insects can increase. Disease vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, and flies may occur in greater numbers over longer periods during the year, and expand the locations in which they thrive. Climate change also affects air movement and quality by increasing ...

  19. Symposium on Global Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Schmalensee

    1993-01-01

    Global climate change, and policies to slow it or adapt to it, may be among the primary forces shaping the world's economy throughout the next century and beyond. Nonetheless, popular treatments of this issue commonly ignore economics. This introductory essay sketches some of the uncertainties and research questions.

  20. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  1. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  2. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy…

  3. Climate change and related activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The production and consumption of energy contributes to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and is the focus of other environmental concerns as well. Yet the use of energy contributes to worldwide economic growth and development. If we are to achieve environmentally sound economic growth, we must develop and deploy energy technologies that contribute to global stewardship. The Department of Energy carries out an aggressive scientific research program to address some of the key uncertainties associated with the climate change issue. Of course, research simply to study the science of global climate change is not enough. At the heart of any regime of cost-effective actions to address the possibility of global climate change will be a panoply of new technologies-technologies both to provide the services we demand and to use energy more efficiently than in the past. These, too, are important areas of responsibility for the Department. This report is a brief description of the Department's activities in scientific research, technology development, policy studies, and international cooperation that are directly related to or have some bearing on the issue of global climate change

  4. Emergency Managers Confront Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Labadie

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Emergency managers will have to deal with the impending, uncertain, and possibly extreme effects of climate change. Yet, many emergency managers are not aware of the full range of possible effects, and they are unsure of their place in the effort to plan for, adapt to, and cope with those effects. This may partly reflect emergency mangers’ reluctance to get caught up in the rancorous—and politically-charged—debate about climate change, but it mostly is due to the worldview shared by most emergency managers. We focus on: extreme events; acute vs. chronic hazards (floods vs. droughts; a shorter event horizon (5 years vs. 75–100 years; and a shorter planning and operational cycle. This paper explores the important intersection of emergency management, environmental management, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It examines the different definitions of terms common to all three fields, the overlapping strategies used in all three fields, and the best means of collaboration and mutual re-enforcement among the three to confront and solve the many possible futures that we may face in the climate change world.

  5. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  6. Population, poverty, and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Das Gupta, Monica

    2013-01-01

    The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to ...

  7. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton H. Davis

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a growing attention on the need to take into account the effects of global climate change. This is particularly so with respect to the increasing amount of green house gas emissions from the Untied States and Europe affecting poor peoples, especially those in developing countries. In 2003, for example, the experts of several international development agencies, including the World Bank, prepared a special report titled “Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation” (OECD 2003. This report followed the Eighth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP8 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC in New Delhi, India in October 2002. It showed that poverty reduction is not only one of the major challenges of the 21st century, but also that climate change is taking place in many developing countries and is increasingly affecting, in a negative fashion, both the economic conditions and the health of poor people and their communities.

  8. Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Kaizar; Yadav, Sarita; Quaik, Shlrene; Pant, Gaurav; Maruthi, A. Y.; Ismail, Norli

    2016-06-01

    The rise in the earth's surface and water temperature is part of the effect of climatic change that has been observed for the last decade. The rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been prominent in all levels of species, communities and ecosystems. Aquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have contributed severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Most researches on climate change effects on biodiversity are contemplating on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have been detected in response to climate change. This is unfortunate, given the importance of aquatic systems for providing ecosystem goods and services. Thus, if researchers were able to identify early-warning indicators of anthropogenic environmental changes on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems, it would certainly help to manage and conserve these systems in a sustainable way. One of such early-warning indicators concerns the expansion of emergent macrophytes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones. Hence, this review highlights the impact of climatic changes towards aquatic macrophytes and their possible environmental implications.

  9. A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect this approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold

  10. Research on the Natural Variability of Climate and the Impact of Anthropogenic Forcing on Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Peter H.

    2005-01-01

    The paper, "Latitude-dependent vertical mixing and the tropical thermocline in a global OGCM", was revised and published in Geophysical Research Letters. It treats the new GISS mixing scheme which includes the latitudinal dependence of the interior ocean turbulence field reported by Gregg, Sanford & Winkel. When implemented in the 3x3 degree NCAR CSMl OGCM [NCOMl] the new mixing scheme produces an improved, sharper equatorial thermoclines in both the Atlantic and the Pacific while simultaneously maintaining the realistic meridional overturning and northward heat transports found already with the previous GISS scheme. Also the paper "Diagnostics of the oceanic thermohaline circulation in a coupled climate model" describing earlier work on the grany was published.

  11. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  12. Changing controls on oceanic radiocarbon: New insights on shallow-to-deep ocean exchange and anthropogenic CO2 uptake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graven, H. D.; Gruber, N.; Key, R.; Khatiwala, S.; Giraud, X.

    2012-10-01

    The injection of radiocarbon (14C) into the atmosphere by nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s and 1960s has provided a powerful tracer to investigate ocean physical and chemical processes. While the oceanic uptake of bomb-derived 14C was primarily controlled by air-sea exchange in the early decades after the bomb spike, we demonstrate that changes in oceanic 14C are now primarily controlled by shallow-to-deep ocean exchange, i.e., the same mechanism that governs anthropogenic CO2 uptake. This is a result of accumulated bomb 14C uptake that has rapidly decreased the air-sea gradient of 14C/C (Δ14C) and shifted the main reservoir of bomb 14C from the atmosphere to the upper ocean. The air-sea Δ14C gradient, reduced further by fossil fuel dilution, is now weaker than before weapons testing in most regions. Oceanic 14C, and particularly its temporal change, can now be used to study the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2. We examine observed changes in oceanic Δ14C between the WOCE/SAVE (1988-1995) and the CLIVAR (2001-2007) eras and simulations with two ocean general circulation models, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Model (ECCO). Observed oceanic Δ14C and its changes between the 1980s-90s and 2000s indicate that shallow-to-deep exchange is too efficient in ECCO and too sluggish in CCSM. These findings suggest that mean global oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 between 1990 and 2007 is bounded by the ECCO-based estimate of 2.3 Pg C yr-1 and the CCSM-based estimate of 1.7 Pg C yr-1.

  13. Direct shortwave forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol: Sensitivity to particle size, composition, and relative humidity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemesure, S.; Wagener, R.; Schwartz, S.E. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, New York (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Recent estimates of global or hemispheric average forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol due to scattering of shortwave radiation are uncertain by more than a factor of 2. This paper examines the sensitivity of forcing to these microphysical properties for the purposes of obtaining a better understanding of the properties required to reduce the uncertainty in the forcing.

  14. Natural and anthropogenic drivers of cultural change on Easter Island: Review and new insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rull, Valentí

    2016-10-01

    Easter Island (Rapa Nui) is a remote Pacific island known for its megalithic statues, the moai, built by an ancient culture which disappearance is still debated. Theories claiming for either self-destruction (ecocide) of this ancient culture or an eventual genocide after the European contact have been the most popular. Anthropogenic drivers have been traditionally preferred as causes of this major cultural shift, whereas climatic changes have been dismissed or underrated. However, the latest findings suggest that the topic is more complex than formerly thought and demand a more holistic perspective. This paper reviews the main paleoclimatic, paleoecological, archaeological and historical evidence of the major Rapanui cultural shift leading to the end of the moai-building civilization and uses an integrated approach to analyze its timing and potential causes. The disappearance of the ancient Eastern Island culture that erected the moai was a dramatic cultural shift with significant changes in lifestyle, socio-political organization, religious performance, art and also in the geographical settlement of the cultural core of the Rapanui society. The ancient society, represented by the so called Ancient Cult (or moai cult) was centered on the Rano Raraku crater, to the east of the island, whose soft volcanic rocks (tuff) where suitable for moai carving. This society was replaced by the Birdman-Cult society, based on Rano Kao, to the westernmost end of the island. The assumed date for such shift is uncertain ranging between mid-16th and late-18th centuries. It is suggested that such geographical change, as well as the associated societal transformations, may have been the result of a combination of climatic, ecological and cultural drivers and events. The latest paleoecological reconstructions show that the Rano Raraku catchment was deforested by AD 1450 and the lake inside dried out by AD 1550 owing to an intense climatic drought. This would have caused a landscape

  15. Anthropogenic contribution to cloud condensation nuclei and the first aerosol indirect climate effect modelled by GEOS-Chem/APM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, F.

    2013-05-01

    Atmospheric particles influence climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that affect cloud properties (albedo, lifetime, etc.) and precipitation. The first aerosol indirect radiative forcing (FAIRF) (i.e., cloud albedo effect) constitutes the largest uncertainty among the various radiative forcings quantified by the latest IPCC assessment report (IPCC2007). In order to confidently interpret climate change over the past century and project future change, it is essential to reduce the FAIRF uncertainty. One of the large sources of the uncertainty is the poor knowledge of the number concentrations and spatial distributions of pre-industrial and present-day aerosols. All previous and recent FAIRF studies are based on global models with simplified chemistry and aerosol microphysics, which may lead to large uncertainties in predicted aerosol properties and FAIRF values. Here, we investigate the anthropogenic contribution to CCN and associated FAIRF using a state-of-the-art global chemical transport and aerosol model (GEOS-Chem/APM) that contains a number of advanced features (including size-resolved sectional particle microphysics, online comprehensive SOx-NOx-Ox-VOCs chemistry, consideration of nitrate and secondary organic aerosols, online aerosol-cloud-radiation calculation, usage of more accurate assimilated meteorology, etc.). As far as we know, this is the first time that a global model with full chemistry and size-resolved (sectional) particle microphysics is employed to study FAIRF. Key aerosol properties predicted by GEOS-Chem/APM for the present-day case have been evaluated against a large set of land-, ship-, aircraft-, and satellite- based aerosol measurements including total particle number concentrations, CCN concentrations, AODs, and vertical profiles of extinction coefficients. The GEOS-Chem/APM model, with its advanced features and ability to reproduce observed aerosol properties (including CCN) around the globe, is expected to

  16. Cloud feedback on climate change and variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, C.; Dessler, A. E.; Yang, P.

    2014-12-01

    Cloud feedback on climate change and variability follow similar mechanism in climate models, and the magnitude of cloud feedback on climate change and variability are well correlated among models. Therefore, the cloud feedback on short-term climate fluctuations correlates with the equilibrium climate sensitivity in climate models. Using this correlation and the observed short-term climate feedback, we infer a climate sensitivity of ~2.9K. The cloud response to inter-annual surface warming is generally consistent in observations and climate models, except for the tropical boundary-layer low clouds.

  17. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montzka, S A; Dlugokencky, E J; Butler, J H

    2011-08-03

    Earth's climate is warming as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from fossil fuel combustion. Anthropogenic emissions of non-CO(2) greenhouse gases, such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting substances (largely from sources other than fossil fuels), also contribute significantly to warming. Some non-CO(2) greenhouse gases have much shorter lifetimes than CO(2), so reducing their emissions offers an additional opportunity to lessen future climate change. Although it is clear that sustainably reducing the warming influence of greenhouse gases will be possible only with substantial cuts in emissions of CO(2), reducing non-CO(2) greenhouse gas emissions would be a relatively quick way of contributing to this goal.

  18. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  19. Precipitation extremes under climate change

    CERN Document Server

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2015-01-01

    The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to...

  20. Rising CO2, climate change, and public health: Exploring the links to plant biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although the issue of anthropogenic climate forcing and public health is widely recognized, one fundamental aspect has remained underappreciated; the impact of climatic change on plant biology and the well-being of human systems. To critically evaluate the extant and probable links between plant fun...

  1. Long-term effects of climate change on Europe's water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Domnisoru, A.

    2006-01-01

    Climate variations from last century show a global warming trend. Evidence from the past reveals that the anthropogenic greenhouse effect caused changes in climate parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation) at the European scale as well. On long-term this might have essential impact on

  2. The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climate response to projected CO2, sulfate, and other greenhouse gas forcing under a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data from these runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain critical fields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrological cycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to 1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3-8C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1-2C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1C of model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in the Antarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in the ACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Although the difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimal between the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be larger for CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Our results suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such as those associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changes for the next 50-100 years may be negligible

  3. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  4. Coastal seas in a changing world: Anthropogenic impact and environmental responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Gao, Xuelu; Ishizaka, Joji; Lebel, Louis

    2015-12-01

    In recent decades, human-driven environmental change caused by the modification of river discharges, the exploitation of marine resources, the burning of fossil fuels, and various shoreline developments and engineering activities, has accelerated; and evidence of this is seen around the world. Linking continents with open oceans, coastal seas trap most land-based discharge and consequently face varying degrees of anthropogenic change.

  5. Change of the Asian dust source region deduced from the composition of anthropogenic radionuclides in surface soil in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Igarashi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent climate change, especially during the 2000s, may be the primary reason for the expansion of the Asian dust source region. The change in the dust source region was investigated by examining anthropogenic radionuclides contained in surface soil samples from Mongolia. Surface soil was globally labeled by radioactive fallout from nuclear testing during the late 1950s and early 1960s, but there are no current direct sources for anthropogenic radionuclides in the air (before the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in 2011. Radionuclides in the atmosphere are therefore carried mainly by wind-blown dust from surface soil, that is, aeolian dust. Asian dust carries traces of 90Sr, 137Cs, and other anthropogenic radionuclides; the heaviest deposition occurs in spring and has been recorded in Japan since the early 1990s. The composition of anthropogenic radionuclides in atmospheric depositions would be affected by a change in the dust source. Previous studies of atmospheric deposition at long-term monitoring sites (e.g. in Tsukuba, Japan have detected changes in the 137Cs/90Sr ratio and in the specific activity of the radionuclides. These changes in the composition of observed atmospheric depositions are supposed to reflect changes in the climatic conditions of the dust source region. To investigate this dust source change, we conducted a field survey of radionuclides (90Sr and 137Cs in surface soil samples in September 2007 in the eastern and southern regions of Mongolia, where dust storms have occurred more frequently since 2000. The specific activities of both radionuclides as well as the 137Cs/90Sr ratio in the surface soil were well correlated with annual average precipitation in the Mongolian desert-steppe zone. Higher specific activities and a higher 137Cs/90Sr ratio were found in grassland regions that experienced greater

  6. Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion About Some Key Issues

    CERN Document Server

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2010-01-01

    This article discusses the limits of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory advocated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data themselves is proposed. At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system. A climatic stabilization or cooling until 2030-2040 is forecast by the phenomenological model.

  7. Consequences of 21st century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, PU; Shakun, JD; Marcott, SA; Mix, AC; Eby, M.; Kulp, S.; Levermann, A.; Milne, GA; Pfister, PL; Santer, BD; Schrag, Dp; Solomon, S.; Stocker, TF; Strauss, BH; Weaver, AJ

    2016-01-01

    Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years and climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon ...

  8. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  9. Climate change and nuclear power 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The possibility of global climate change resulting from increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is a major concern. A principal source of GHGs, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), is the fossil fuels burned by the energy sector. Energy demand is expected to increase dramatically in the 21st century, especially in developing countries, where population growth is fastest and, even today, some 1.6 billion people have no access to modern energy services. Without significant efforts to limit future GHG emissions from the energy sector, therefore, the expected global increase in energy production and use could well trigger 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system', to use the language of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To reduce the risk of global climate change, industrialized countries (listed in Annex I of the Convention) have made commitments to reduce their collective GHG emissions under the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC during 2008-2012 by at least 5.2% below 1990 levels. Since the USA did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the actual reduction level will be only about 3.8% of the 1990 Annex I emissions, even if all Parties achieve full compliance. This reduction is by far outweighed by increases of emissions in non-Annex I countries in the same period. However, much deeper global emissions cuts will be necessary over the next few decades to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations at levels such that the increase in the mean annual surface temperature of the Earth will not exceed 2.5 oC relative to the pre-industrial level. Nuclear power plants produce virtually no GHG emissions during their operation and very low amounts of emissions on a life cycle basis. Nuclear energy could, therefore, be an important part of future strategies to reduce GHG emissions. Nuclear power is already an important contributor to the world's electricity needs. In 2007, it supplied about one seventh of

  10. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore

  11. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  12. Climate Change Education: Student Media Production to Educate and Engage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Brisk, A. A.; Ledley, T. S.; Shuldman, M.

    2011-12-01

    -depth scientific information to the broader public, we have found that they can be successful in conveying some of the key, basic concepts needed to understand anthropogenic climate change. Some of these concepts include the causal relationships between fossil fuel-based energy systems, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and climate change; the distinction between natural and anthropogenic processes in the carbon cycle; impacts of climate change on ecosystem services; and transitioning to renewable energy systems that do not emit carbon dioxide is necessary to avert 'dangerous' climate change.

  13. The effect of changes in natural and anthropogenic deposition on modelling recovery from acidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Martinson

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The multi-layer dynamic soil chemistry SAFE model was used to study the dynamics of recovery in the F1 catchment at Lake Gårdsjön, Sweden. The influence of (1 sulphate adsorption, and (2 changes in marine deposition, on model predictions of recovery was studied. Sulphate adsorption/desorption in SAFE is modeled by an isotherm in which sulphate adsorption is dependent on both the sulphate concentration and the pH in the soil solution. This isotherm was parameterised for the B-horizon of F1 for the sulphate concentration range 10–260 m mol-1 and the pH range 3.8–5.0. Sulphate adsorption/desorption as the only soil process involving sulphate is adequate to predict sulphate in run-off at F1. Adding the process caused time-delays in sulphate concentration in run-off of only 1-2 years, which was much shorter than previously seen in the adjacent G1 catchment. The location of Lake Gårdsjön, approximately 15 km inland from the Swedish west coast, ensures that the marine deposition to the area is high. Model output showed that the temporal variation in marine deposition has a considerable impact on the run-off chemistry. Such changes in marine deposition are difficult to foresee and their influence on modelled run-off chemistry can be large when soils start to recover as the previously high concentrations of anthropogenic sulphate in the soil solution decrease. Keywords: climate change, dynamic modelling, run-off chemistry, sea-salt effect, soil and water acidification, sulphate adsorption

  14. High fitness costs of climate change-induced camouflage mismatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimova, Marketa; Mills, L Scott; Nowak, J Joshua

    2016-03-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has created myriad stressors that threaten to cause local extinctions if wild populations fail to adapt to novel conditions. We studied individual and population-level fitness costs of a climate change-induced stressor: camouflage mismatch in seasonally colour molting species confronting decreasing snow cover duration. Based on field measurements of radiocollared snowshoe hares, we found strong selection on coat colour molt phenology, such that animals mismatched with the colour of their background experienced weekly survival decreases up to 7%. In the absence of adaptive response, we show that these mortality costs would result in strong population-level declines by the end of the century. However, natural selection acting on wide individual variation in molt phenology might enable evolutionary adaptation to camouflage mismatch. We conclude that evolutionary rescue will be critical for hares and other colour molting species to keep up with climate change. PMID:26799459

  15. Climatic change and security stakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the relationships between climate change and security. Potential threats from climate change, as a unique source of stress or together with other factors, to human security are first examined. Some of the most explicit examples illustrate this section: food security, water availability, vulnerability to extreme events and vulnerability of small islands States and coastal zones. By questioning the basic needs of some populations or at least aggravating their precariousness, such risks to human security could also raise global security concerns, which we examine in turn, along four directions: rural exodus with an impoverishment of displaced populations, local conflicts for the use of natural resources, diplomatic tensions and international conflicts, and propagation to initially-unaffected regions through migratory flows. (authors)

  16. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Boucher, Olivier; Haigh, J.; Hauglustaine, D.; Haywood, J.; Myhre, G.; Nakajima, Takahito; Shi, Guangyu; Solomon, S.; Betts, Robert E.; Charlson, R.; Chuang, C. C.; Daniel, J. S.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Feichter, J.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Forster, P. M.; Ghan, Steven J.; Jones, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Koch, D.; Land, C.; Lean, J.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Minschwaner, K.; Penner, Joyce E.; Roberts, D. L.; Rodhe, H.; Roelofs, G.-J.; Rotstayn, Leon D.; Schneider, T. L.; Schumann, U.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Schwartzkopf, M. D.; Shine, K. P.; Smith, Steven J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Stordal, F.; Tegen, I.; van Dorland, R.; Zhang, Y.; Srinivasan, J.; Joos, Fortunat

    2001-10-01

    Chapter 6 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Sections include: Executive Summary 6.1 Radiative Forcing 6.2 Forcing-Response Relationship 6.3 Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases 6.4 Stratospheric Ozone 6.5 Radiative Forcing By Tropospheric Ozone 6.6 Indirect Forcings due to Chemistry 6.7 The Direct Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.8 The Indirect Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.9 Stratospheric Aerosols 6.10 Land-use Change (Surface Albedo Effect) 6.11 Solar Forcing of Climate 6.12 Global Warming Potentials hydrocarbons 6.13 Global Mean Radiative Forcings 6.14 The Geographical Distribution of the Radiative Forcings 6.15 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcings Appendix 6.1 Elements of Radiative Forcing Concept References.

  17. Making sense of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change has always occurred naturally but at a pace to which the earth has adapted well. Now, due to human activities like energy utilization and waste disposal, the earth is heating up much faster than earlier. Ecosystems, water resources, food sources, health, and human settlements are getting adversely affected. Floods and droughts are increasing, glaciers are melting, and disease is spreading. The problem is serious and it is time to act. Global consensus has been agreements; mitigation initiatives have been undertaken; hopes are up. The aim of this book is to raise the awareness of secondary school students about climate change and its impacts while enhancing their understanding of global responses. It includes a chapter specific to Indian conditions. Lucidly written and illustrated with anecdotes and visuals, this handbook will catalyse young minds into greater awareness, concern, and, hopefully, remedial action on this global threat

  18. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Seiner, John; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian

    2012-01-01

    There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Cl...

  19. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Kanchan Joshi; Preeti Chaturvedi

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  20. Climate change and the Lower Fraser Valley. rev. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climatic changes that are expected to occur in British Columbia's Lower Fraser Valley over the next century were described in this report which included information about the science of climate change and the development of global climate models that provide estimates of global climate for the coming century. The confidence that scientists have in these models was reflected in the fact that most can simulate the important seasonal and geographical large scale features of the global climate, and that many of the large scale changes that are effected by greenhouse gas concentrations can be explained in terms of physical processes which operate around the world. The models also reproduce with reasonable accuracy the variations of climate such as the El Nino phenomena., the cooling due to the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 and the global warming that occurred over the past 100 years. Three climate stations were analyzed in this study to assess the climate change of the Valley. Climatic change is influenced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which in turn cause accelerated global warming. Scientists generally believe that the combustion of fossil fuels and other human activities are a major reason for the increased concentration of carbon dioxide. Plant respiration and the decomposition of organic matter releases 10 times more CO2 than that released anthropogenically, but these releases are in balance with plant photosynthesis. The rate of warming in the Lower Fraser Valley is uncertain, but climate models suggest it could be about 3 to 4 degrees warming with wetter winters and drier summers by the end of the century. The Valley currently has mild temperatures and high precipitation because of its proximity to the Pacific Oceans and the surrounding mountains. Global warming can have an impact on sea levels along the coast, spring flooding, summer drought, coastal ecosystems, air quality, occurrences of forest fires, and recreation